WorldWideScience

Sample records for decline partly due

  1. Telmisartan prevented cognitive decline partly due to PPAR-γ activation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mogi, Masaki; Li Jianmei; Tsukuda, Kana; Iwanami, Jun; Min, Li-Juan; Sakata, Akiko; Fujita, Teppei; Iwai, Masaru; Horiuchi, Masatsugu

    2008-01-01

    Telmisartan is a unique angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) and partial agonist of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-γ. Here, we investigated the preventive effect of telmisartan on cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease. In ddY mice, intracerebroventricular injection of Aβ 1-40 significantly attenuated their cognitive function evaluated by shuttle avoidance test. Pretreatment with a non-hypotensive dose of telmisartan significantly inhibited such cognitive decline. Interestingly, co-treatment with GW9662, a PPAR-γ antagonist, partially inhibited this improvement of cognitive decline. Another ARB, losartan, which has less PPAR-γ agonistic effect, also inhibited Aβ-injection-induced cognitive decline; however the effect was smaller than that of telmisartan and was not affected by GW9662. Immunohistochemical staining for Aβ showed the reduced Aβ deposition in telmisartan-treated mice. However, this reduction was not observed in mice co-administered GW9662. These findings suggest that ARB has a preventive effect on cognitive impairment in Alzheimer disease, and telmisartan, with PPAR-γ activation, could exert a stronger effect

  2. "Ingraham v. Wright" and the Decline of Due Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Gerard J.

    1978-01-01

    Suggests that the constitutional questions in "Ingraham vs Wright" lend credence to a concern that the Court is seeking to eliminate all due process intervention outside of the incorporation and privacy cases and to limit even these cases to defenses of a criminal prosecution. Available from Suffolk University Law Review Office, 41…

  3. Mineral decline due to modernization of food habits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Christiani Jeyakumar; Bi, Xinyan; Lim, Joseph; Lau, Evelyn

    2016-01-01

    Calcium and other micronutrients are essential for health and well-being. Dairy products are the main sources of calcium in western countries. In most regions of Asia, the consumption of these products is limited due to the lactose intolerance and costs. A major contributor to the micronutrients intake in this region is the consumption of small fish, such as anchovies. Traditionally, dried anchovies are consumed as a whole body. Recently, an increasingly popular method of eating anchovies has been to eat it in a cleaned, eviscerated form. This brief communication highlights how "modernization" of food habits may have unintentional nutritional consequences. A minor change in the dietary habits of eating cleaned anchovies may lead to a reduction in micronutrients intake. This reinforces the need for caution when we modernize our traditional eating habits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Declining average daily census. Part 1: Implications and options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weil, T P

    1985-12-01

    A national trend toward declining average daily (inpatient) census (ADC) started in late 1982 even before the Medicare prospective payment system began. The decrease in total days will continue despite an increasing number of aged persons in the U.S. population. This decline could have been predicted from trends during 1978 to 1983, such as increasing available beds but decreasing occupancy, 100 percent increases in hospital expenses, and declining lengths of stay. Assuming that health care costs will remain as a relatively fixed part of the gross national product and no major medical advances will occur in the next five years, certain implications and options exist for facilities experiencing a declining ADC. This article discusses several considerations: Attempts to improve market share; Reduction of full-time equivalent employees; Impact of greater acuity of illness among remaining inpatients; Implications of increasing the number of physicians on medical staffs; Option of a closed medical staff by clinical specialty; Unbundling with not-for-profit and profit-making corporations; Review of mergers, consolidations, and multihospital systems to decide when this option is most appropriate; Sale of a not-for-profit hospital to an investor-owned chain, with implications facing Catholic hospitals choosing this option; Impact and difficulty of developing meaningful alternative health care systems with the hospital's medical staff; Special problems of teaching hospitals; The social issue of the hospital shifting from the community's health center to a cost center; Increased turnover of hospital CEOs; With these in mind, institutions can then focus on solutions that can sometimes be used in tandem to resolve this problem's impact. The second part of this article will discuss some of them.

  5. Actual state of plant decline phenomena due to acid rain and others

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshitake, Takashi

    1992-01-01

    In the national forest at the foot of Mount Tarumae which is located in the northwestern part of Tomakomai City, Hokkaido, large scale artificial afforestation of larch, spruce, white fir and other trees was carried out in the area damaged by the typhoon in 1954. However, the afforested ground suffered deadly damage by freezing and frost and the spread of disease and insect harms. Since 1960s, pines storobus which is strong to coldness and grows quickly has been planted in the area of about 2000 ha. At first its growth was good, but since 1967, the abnormal leaf falling due to unknown cause and the obstruction of growth became to be observed. At the point of time when the damage spread to several hundreds ha of the afforested ground, the causes of the potassium shortage in soil nutriment, the harms due to cold wind, salt wind and atmospheric pollution and so on were discussed. Of those, the strongest hypothesis was the obstruction of growth due to the potassium shortage in the unripe soil with the composition of volcanic released substances from Mount Tarumae. The environment in the area where abnormal leaf falling occurred, the features of the damage, the analysis of rainwater, and the mechanism of the decline are reported. (K.I.)

  6. Actual state of plant decline phenomena due to acid rain and others

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morikawa, Yasushi; Matsumoto, Yoosuke; Maruyama, Yutaka.

    1992-01-01

    The decline of Japanese cedar occurred in old trees, of which the growth of height stopped, and it started from the withering of the upper layer of tree top. Usually the decrease of leaf number just under the tip of tree top is conspicuous, and soon, withering spreads to lower part. The decline is limited to the plain area of Kanto, and the Japanese cedar forests in the plain area are mostly the isolated forests in mansions, shrines and temples. The decline of Japanese cedar forests like these has begun in the latter half of 1960s, and it has become difficult to find Japanese cedar trees. According to the fact finding survey by Environment Agency and General Forest Research Institute, the decline spread radially in the plain area of low elevation, and according to directions, the state of spread is different. The decline occurred below the elevation of 100 m in the case of Tochigi, Ibaraki and Chiba, but in Gunma, Saitama, Kanagawa and western Tokyo, it spread to the places exceeding 100 m. The zone of serious degree of the decline spread to north western and western directions. The progress of the decline of Japanese cedar trees, the change of weather, and the state of atmospheric pollution are reported. (K.I.)

  7. Actual state of plant decline phenomena due to acid rain and others

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nashimoto, Makoto

    1992-01-01

    The decline phenomena of Japanese cedar in Kanto and Koshin districts have attracted large interest regarding the relation with acid fallout. As the cause of the decline, the effect of acid fallout and the drying of the atmosphere was reported. The authors investigated this problem in whole Japan, and reported that in the decline of Japanese cedar trees, the secondary polluting substances in the atmosphere and the amount of rain fall during the growth period seemed to take part. In this report, based on the results of investigation from the viewpoint of field ecology, the present state of the decline of Japanese cedar trees in Kansai-Setouchi district is summarized, and the relation of the decline of Japanese cedar trees to the secondary polluting substances in the atmosphere is reported as the results of the synthetic investigation. The distribution of the decline of Japanese cedar forests and its relation to the distribution of oxidant index and the amount of rainfall, and the relation of the decline of Japanese cedar trees to the secondary polluting substances in the atmosphere are described. (K.I.)

  8. Actual state of plant decline phenomena due to acid rain and others

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koshiji, Masashi

    1992-01-01

    Kanagawa Prefecture presents diversified aspects in its topography and weather from Sagami Bay to the highest point, Hirugatake (1673 m) in Tanzawa mountains, with plain, terrace, hill and mountain. When the state of forest areas is observed, evergreen broadleaf tree forests are in coastal areas and to the inland of 700 - 800 m elevation. Deciduous broadleaf tree forests are in the mountains exceeding 700 - 800 m. Further, fir and Japanese hemlock trees distribute in the area where both forests adjoin. At present, from terraces and hills to mountains, the plantations of Japanese cedar, Hinoki cypress and pine trees and the secondary forests of oak trees are seen. The decline of Japanese cedar trees in this Prefecture was first seen around 1960, and it was investigated in 1972 by dividing the tree form into five steps corresponding to the degree of decline. The progress of the decline, and the outline of fir tree forest in Oyama and its decline are reported. The secular change of growth ring width is utilized as the recorder of environmental change in the past such as weather, natural calamity and atmospheric pollution. The analysis of the course of decline using growth rings was carried out. The relation of the decline of forests to atmospheric pollution, and the decline of Japanese beech and fir trees in Tanzawa mountains are reported. (K.I.)

  9. Cognitive decline in temporal lobe epilepsy due to unilateral hippocampal sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, Carolina Mattos; Caboclo, Luís Otávio Sales Ferreira; da Silva, Tatiana Indelicato; Noffs, Maria Helena da Silva; Carrete, Henrique; Lin, Katia; Lin, Jaime; Sakamoto, Américo Ceiki; Yacubian, Elza Márcia Targas

    2007-05-01

    We assessed the cognitive performance of patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) caused by unilateral hippocampal sclerosis (HS), in comparison with that of matched, healthy controls. We report the relationship between cognitive measures and duration of epilepsy, correlating with hippocampal volumes, and the impact of educational level on cognitive decline. This study involved 61 outpatients (40 with 8 years of formal education) with unilateral HS and 61 controls. Volumetric MRI was performed on all patients and 10 controls. The results (mean, SD) of the neuropsychological tests of healthy subjects and patients were compared using the Student t and Mann-Whitney tests. Patients performed worse than controls in the neuropsychological evaluation. When adjusted z scores were used to calculate the impairment index, patients had a greater percentage of abnormal tests compared with controls. The cognitive decline, assessed through the impairment index, correlated with duration of epilepsy. Higher level of education did not protect against this decline, thus not supporting the hypothesis of cerebral reserve in this population. A significant correlation between hippocampal volumetric measures and duration of epilepsy was observed only in patients with left HS. Patients with TLE caused by HS present with cognitive morbidity that extends beyond memory deficits. Cognitive decline is associated with duration of epilepsy, and in patients with left-sided HS, duration may correlate with volumetric hippocampal loss.

  10. Recent salmon declines: a result of lost feeding opportunities due to bad timing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cedar M Chittenden

    Full Text Available As the timing of spring productivity blooms in near-shore areas advances due to warming trends in global climate, the selection pressures on out-migrating salmon smolts are shifting. Species and stocks that leave natal streams earlier may be favoured over later-migrating fish. The low post-release survival of hatchery fish during recent years may be in part due to static release times that do not take the timing of plankton blooms into account. This study examined the effects of release time on the migratory behaviour and survival of wild and hatchery-reared coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch using acoustic and coded-wire telemetry. Plankton monitoring and near-shore seining were also conducted to determine which habitat and food sources were favoured. Acoustic tags (n = 140 and coded-wire tags (n = 266,692 were implanted into coho salmon smolts at the Seymour and Quinsam Rivers, in British Columbia, Canada. Differences between wild and hatchery fish, and early and late releases were examined during the entire lifecycle. Physiological sampling was also carried out on 30 fish from each release group. The smolt-to-adult survival of coho salmon released during periods of high marine productivity was 1.5- to 3-fold greater than those released both before and after, and the fish's degree of smoltification affected their downstream migration time and duration of stay in the estuary. Therefore, hatchery managers should consider having smolts fully developed and ready for release during the peak of the near-shore plankton blooms. Monitoring chlorophyll a levels and water temperature early in the spring could provide a forecast of the timing of these blooms, giving hatcheries time to adjust their release schedule.

  11. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rwegoshora Rwehumbiza T

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum has historically been a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. Recent reports indicate a pronounced decline in infection and disease rates which are commonly ascribed to large-scale bed net programmes and improved case management. However, the decline has also occurred in areas with limited or no intervention. The present study assessed temporal changes in Anopheline populations in two highly malaria-endemic communities of NE Tanzania during the period 1998-2009. Methods Between 1998 and 2001 (1st period and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period, mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and were used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. Results The average number of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009, the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. Conclusion A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite the absence of organized vector control. Part of the decline could be associated with changes in the pattern of monthly rainfall, but other factors may also contribute to the dramatic downward trend. A similar decline in malaria vector densities could contribute to the decrease in levels of malaria infection reported from many parts of SSA.

  12. Actual state of plant decline phenomena due to acid rain and others

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokobori, Makoto

    1992-01-01

    Recently, Japanese mass communication earnestly reports on the effect that acid rain exerts to natural environment. Also the researches have been carried out on the present state of rainwater acidification, the mechanism of the effect of acid rain to plants, the experiment using artificial acid rain, and the foreign theories on the cause of the decline of forests. But the example of the damage of trees and plants in fields, of which the true cause is understood to be acid rain, is not found. The author has engaged in the research on forest protection for long years, and according to his experience, in the present Japanese research on acid rain, there are a number of important pitfalls. Acid rain theory is only one of many hypotheses. It must be verified by the proper research, and this point is important. Ibaraki Prefectural Forest Experiment station has carried out the consultation on the diagnosis and restoration of tree conditions, and the decline of trees and its cause are reported according to the examples of investigation. In the consultation in the last nine years, the decline of trees caused by acid rain was not confirmed. (K.I.)

  13. Soil moisture decline due to afforestation across the Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Xiaoxu; Shao, Ming'an; Zhu, Yuanjun; Luo, Yi

    2017-03-01

    The Loess Plateau of China is a region with one of the most severe cases of soil erosion in the world. Since the 1950s, there has been afforestation measure to control soil erosion and improve ecosystem services on the plateau. However, the introduction of exotic tree species (e.g., R. pseudoacacia, P. tabulaeformis and C. korshinskii) and high-density planting has had a negative effect on soil moisture content (SMC) in the region. Any decrease in SMC could worsen soil water shortage in both the top and deep soil layers, further endangering the sustainability of the fragile ecosystem. This study analyzed the variations in SMC following the conversion of croplands into forests in the Loess Plateau. SMC data within the 5-m soil profile were collected at 50 sites in the plateau region via field survey, long-term in-situ observations and documented literature. The study showed that for the 50 sites, the depth-averaged SMC was much lower under forest than under cropland. Based on in-situ measurements of SMC in agricultural plots and C. korshinskii plots in 2004-2014, SMC in the 0-4 m soil profile in both plots declined significantly (p resources demands in the Loess Plateau.

  14. Height-related growth declines in ponderosa pine are not due to carbon limitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Anna; Hoch, Günter

    2009-01-01

    Decreased gas exchange as trees grow tall has been proposed to explain age-related growth declines in trees. We examined changes of mobile carbon stores (starch, sugars and lipids) with tree height in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) at two sites differing in water availability, and tested the following hypotheses: (1) carbon supply does not become increasingly limited as trees grow tall; rather, the concentration of mobile carbon compounds increases with tree height reflecting greater reductions of carbon sink activities relative to carbon assimilation; and (2) increases of stored mobile carbon compounds with tree height are greater in drier sites. Height-related growth reductions were associated with significant increases of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) and lipid concentrations in all tissues in the upper canopy and of NSC in the bole. Lipid concentrations in the bole decreased with tree height, but such decrease is not necessarily inconsistent with non-limiting carbon supply in tall trees. Furthermore, we found stronger increases of mobile carbon stores with tree height at the dry site relative to the moist site. Our results provide first direct evidence that carbon supply does not limit growth in tall trees and that decreases of water availability might negatively impact growth processes more than net-photosynthesis.

  15. Potential decline in geothermal energy generation due to rising temperatures under climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angel, E.; Ortega, S.; Gonzalez-Duque, D.; Ruiz-Carrascal, D.

    2016-12-01

    Geothermal energy production depends on the difference between air temperature and the geothermal fluid temperature. The latter remains approximately constant over time, so the power generation varies according to local atmospheric conditions. Projected changes in near-surface air temperatures in the upper levels of the tropical belt are likely to exceed the projected temperature anomalies across many other latitudes, which implies that geothermal plants located in these regions may be affected, reducing their energy output. This study focuses on a hypothetical geothermal power plant, located in the headwaters of the Claro River watershed, a key high-altitude basin in Los Nevados Natural Park, on the El Ruiz-Tolima volcanic massif, in the Colombian Central Andes, a region with a known geothermal potential. Four different Atmospheric General Circulation Models where used to project temperature anomalies for the 2040-2069 prospective period. Their simulation outputs were merged in a differentially-weighted multi-model ensemble, whose weighting factors were defined according to the capability of individual models to reproduce ground truth data from a set of digital data-loggers installed in the basin since 2008 and from weather stations gathering climatic variables since the early 50s. Projected anomalies were computed for each of the Representative Concentration Pathways defined by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in the studied region. These climate change projections indicate that air temperatures will likely reach positive anomalies in the range +1.27 ºC to +3.47 ºC, with a mean value of +2.18 ºC. Under these conditions, the annual energy output declines roughly 1% per each degree of increase in near-surface temperature. These results must be taken into account in geothermal project evaluations in the region.

  16. Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Ciais, Philippe; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Sheffield, Justin; Goulden, Michael L; Bonan, Gordon; Cescatti, Alessandro; Chen, Jiquan; de Jeu, Richard; Dolman, A Johannes; Eugster, Werner; Gerten, Dieter; Gianelle, Damiano; Gobron, Nadine; Heinke, Jens; Kimball, John; Law, Beverly E; Montagnani, Leonardo; Mu, Qiaozhen; Mueller, Brigitte; Oleson, Keith; Papale, Dario; Richardson, Andrew D; Roupsard, Olivier; Running, Steve; Tomelleri, Enrico; Viovy, Nicolas; Weber, Ulrich; Williams, Christopher; Wood, Eric; Zaehle, Sönke; Zhang, Ke

    2010-10-21

    More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land−a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability−remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Niño event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.

  17. Canary in the coal mine: Historical oxygen decline in the Gulf of St. Lawrence due to large scale climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claret, M.; Galbraith, E. D.; Palter, J. B.; Gilbert, D.; Bianchi, D.; Dunne, J. P.

    2016-02-01

    The regional signature of anthropogenic climate change on the atmosphere and upper ocean is often difficult to discern from observational timeseries, dominated as they are by decadal climate variability. Here we argue that a long-term decline of dissolved oxygen concentrations observed in the Gulf of S. Lawrence (GoSL) is consistent with anthropogenic climate change. Oxygen concentrations in the GoSL have declined markedly since 1930 due primarily to an increase of oxygen-poor North Atlantic Central Waters relative to Labrador Current Waters (Gilbert et al. 2005). We compare these observations to a climate warming simulation using a very high-resolution global coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model. The numerical model (CM2.6), developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, is strongly eddying and includes a biogeochemical module with dissolved oxygen. The warming scenario shows that oxygen in the GoSL decreases and it is associated to changes in western boundary currents and wind patterns in the North Atlantic. We speculate that the large-scale changes behind the simulated decrease in GoSL oxygen have also been at play in the real world over the past century, although they are difficult to resolve in noisy atmospheric data.

  18. Problems due to icing of overhead lines - Part II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Havard, D.G.; Pon, C.J.; Krishnasamy, S.G.

    1985-01-01

    A companion paper describes uncertainties in overhead line design due to the variability of ice and wind loads. This paper reviews two other effects due to icing; conductor galloping and torsional instability, which require further study. (author)

  19. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf; Pedersen, Erling Møller; Alifrangis, Michael

    2011-01-01

    ) and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period), mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and was used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. RESULTS: The average number...... of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009), the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline...... in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. CONCLUSION: A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite...

  20. Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

    2016-06-01

    Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

  1. FUTURE ESTIMATION OF CONVENIENCE LIVING FACILITIES WITHDRAWAL DUE TO POPULATION DECLINE ALL OVER JAPAN FROM 2010 TO 2040 - FOCUS ON SUPERMARKETS, CONVENIENCE STORES AND DRUGSTORES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Nishimoto

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

  2. [Decline in renal function in old age : Part of physiological aging versus age-related disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, F; Brinkkötter, P T

    2016-08-01

    The incidence and prevalence of chronic renal disease (CKD) in elderly patients are continuously increasing worldwide. Loss of renal function is not only considered to be part of the aging process itself but also reflects the multimorbidity of many geriatric patients. Calculating the glomerular filtration rate using specific algorithms validated for the elderly population and measuring the amount of proteinuria allow an estimation of renal function in elderly patients with high accuracy. Chronic renal failure has many clinical consequences and not only results in a delayed excretion of toxins cleared by the kidneys but also affects hematogenesis, water and electrolyte balance as well as mineral bone metabolism. Furthermore, CKD directly leads to and aggravates geriatric syndromes and in particular the onset of frailty. Therapeutic strategies to halt progression of CKD not only comprise treatment of the underlying disease but also efficient blood pressure and diabetic control and the avoidance of nephrotoxic medications.

  3. Mechanical damage due to corrosion of parts of pump technology and valves of LWR power installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hron, J.; Krumpl, M.

    1986-01-01

    Two types are described of uneven corrosion of austenitic chromium-nickel steel: pitting and slit corrosion. The occurrence of slit corrosion is typical of parts of pumping technology and valves. The corrosion damage of austenitic chromium-nickel steels spreads as intergranular, transgranular or mixed corrosion. In nuclear power facilities with LWR's, intergranular corrosion is due to chlorides and sulphur compounds while transgranular corrosion is due to the presence of dissolved oxygen and chlorides. In mechanically stressed parts, stress corrosion takes place. The recommended procedures are discussed of reducing the corrosion-mechanical damage of pumping equipment of light water reactors during design, production and assembly. During the service of the equipment, corrosion cracks are detected using nondestructive methods and surface cracks are repaired by grinding and welding. (E.S.)

  4. Job Sharing Through Part Time Contracts. A Consideration in the Context of Declining School Enrolments in Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Krishna

    Two questionnaires were sent to all school boards and a sample of teachers in Ontario to assess how receptive boards and teachers are to job sharing as an alternative work pattern in schools affected by declining enrollment. The report gives the background of the concept of job sharing and an analysis of the benefits, work situations, and problems…

  5. Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

  6. Material degradation due to moisture and temperature. Part 1: mathematical model, analysis, and analytical solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Mudunuru, M. K.; Nakshatrala, K. B.

    2016-11-01

    The mechanical response, serviceability, and load-bearing capacity of materials and structural components can be adversely affected due to external stimuli, which include exposure to a corrosive chemical species, high temperatures, temperature fluctuations (i.e., freezing-thawing), cyclic mechanical loading, just to name a few. It is, therefore, of paramount importance in several branches of engineering—ranging from aerospace engineering, civil engineering to biomedical engineering—to have a fundamental understanding of degradation of materials, as the materials in these applications are often subjected to adverse environments. As a result of recent advancements in material science, new materials such as fiber-reinforced polymers and multi-functional materials that exhibit high ductility have been developed and widely used, for example, as infrastructural materials or in medical devices (e.g., stents). The traditional small-strain approaches of modeling these materials will not be adequate. In this paper, we study degradation of materials due to an exposure to chemical species and temperature under large strain and large deformations. In the first part of our research work, we present a consistent mathematical model with firm thermodynamic underpinning. We then obtain semi-analytical solutions of several canonical problems to illustrate the nature of the quasi-static and unsteady behaviors of degrading hyperelastic solids.

  7. Institutionalizing environmental due diligence as part of the organization's culture: The Suncor Oil Sands Group experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, R.; Klym, D.

    1992-01-01

    The Suncor Oil Sands Group produces ca 22 million bbl/y of synthetic crude oil from oil sands in northern Alberta. Initiatives taken by the Group to install environmental due diligence as an integral part of Suncor culture are reviewed. Environmental due diligence means taking all reasonable care to safeguard the environment. To practice environmental due diligence, the organization and its members must have an environmental consciousness that can be observed, measured, and monitored through daily practices. In the period from startup of the oil sands plant in 1967 to the mid-1970s, Suncor culture could be described as research oriented, oriented toward examination of the viability of extracting oil from the oil sands and the development of new extraction processes. Management then moved toward a more production-based culture, in which environmental issues were sometimes perceived to be in conflict with production goals. External factors toward the end of the 1980s created a culture shift to an integration of production culture with social entities including environmental consciousness. A corporate push toward a new environmental culture was first concretized when the management's Health and Safety Policy was changed in 1990 to the Health, Safety and Environment Policy. A new Environmental Diligence Program was implemented in three phases, including planning, development of a comprehensive environmental management system, and implementation. Installation of the Program in the first phase is described, focusing on employee and management training, and results of the installation process are presented. Modifications of Suncor's loss control management program to integrate with the environmental diligence program are also noted. 2 refs

  8. The decline of soil due to the pile of highway project Medan-Kualanamu (STA 35 + 901) with the finite element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastuty, I. P.; Roesyanto; Sihite, A. B.

    2018-02-01

    Consolidation is the process of discharge of water from the ground through the pore cavity. Consolidation occurs in soft soil or unstable soil that allows an improvement in order to make the soil more stable. The method of using Prefabricated Vertical Drain (PVD) is one way to improve unstable soils. PVD works like a sand column that can drain water vertically. This study aims to determine the decrease, pore water pressure and soil consolidation rate with Prefabricated Vertical Drain (PVD) and without PVD analytically and using finite element method that affect the duration of soil decline to reach 90% consolidation or in other words soil does not decline anymore. Based on the analytical calculation, the decrease obtained is equal to 0.47 m meanwhile the result of calculation using finite element method is 0.45 m. The consolidation rate obtained from analytical calculation is 19 days with PVD and 115 days without PVD. The consolidation rate obtained from finite element method is 63 days with PVD and 110 days without PVD. And the pore water pressure is 0.92 KN/m2.

  9. 40 CFR Table 1 to Subpart B of... - Section 112(j) Part 2 Application Due Dates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Chemical Manufacturing (MON).1 Organic Liquids Distribution.Primary Magnesium Refining. Metal Can (Surface Coating). Plastic Parts and Products (Surface Coating). Chlorine Production. Miscellaneous Metal Parts and..., Institutional/Commercial Boilers, and Process Heaters.5 Hydrochloric Acid Production.6 1 Covers 23 source...

  10. Optimal defense: snails avoid reproductive parts of the lichen Lobaria scrobiculata due to internal defense allocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asplund, Johan; Solhaug, Knut Asbjørn; Gauslaa, Yngvar

    2010-10-01

    The optimal defense theory (ODT) deals with defensive compounds improving fitness of a particular organism. It predicts that these compounds are allocated in proportion to the risk for a specific plant tissue being attacked and this tissue's value for plant fitness. As the benefit of defense cannot easily be measured in plants, the empirical evidence for ODT is limited. However, lichens are unique in the sense that their carbon-based secondary compounds can nondestructively be removed or reduced in concentration by acetone rinsing. By using such an extraction protocol, which is lethal to plants, we have tested the ODT by studying lichens instead of plants as photosynthetically active organisms. Prior to acetone rinsing, we found five times higher concentration of meta-scrobiculin in the reproductive parts (soralia) of Lobaria scrobiculata compared to somatic parts of this foliose epiphytic lichen species. At this stage, the lichen-feeding snail Cochlodina laminata avoided the soralia. However, after removal of secondary compounds, the snail instead preferred the soralia. In this way, we have successfully shown that grazing pattern inversely reflects the partitioning of the secondary compounds that have a documented deterring effect. Thus our study provides strong and novel evidence for the ODT.

  11. Higher Atmosphere Heating due to black carbon Over the Northern Part of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, S.; Singh, S., , Dr

    2017-12-01

    Light-absorbing, atmospheric particles have gained greater attention in recent years because of their direct and indirect impacts on regional and global climate. Atmospheric black carbon (BC) aerosol (also called soot particle) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties in the global direct aerosol radiative forcing remain large. Based on a year of aerosol absorption measurements at seven wavelengths, BC concentrations were investigated in Dhanbad, the coal capital of India. Coal is routinely burned for cooking and residential heat as well as in small industries. The mean daily concentrations of ultraviolet-absorbing black carbon measured at 370 nm (UVBC) and black carbon measured at 880 nm (BC) were 9.8 ± 5.7 and 6.5 ± 3.8 μg m-3, respectively. The difference between UVBC and BC, Delta-C, is an indicator of biomass or residential coal burning and averaged 3.29 ± 4.61 μg m-3. An alternative approach uses the calculation of the Angstrom Exponent (AE) to estimate the amounts of biomass/coal and traffic BC. Biomass/coal burning contributed 87% and fossil fuel combustion contributed 13% to the annual average BC concentration. In the post-monsoon season, potential source contribution function analysis showed that air masses came from the central and northwestern Indo-Gangetic Plains resulting in mean UVBC values of 10.9 μg m-3 and BC of 7.2 μg m-3. The mean winter UVBC and BC concentrations were 15.0 and 10.1 μg m-3, respectively. These highest values were largely driven by local sources under conditions of poor dispersion. The direct radiative forcing (DRF) due to UVBC and BC at the surface (SFC) and the top of the atmosphere (TOA) were calculated. The mean atmospheric heating rates due to UVBC and BC were estimated to be 1.40°K day-1 and 1.18°K day-1, respectively. This high heating rate may affect the monsoon circulation in this region.

  12. ROBUST DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutawanir Darwis

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Empirical decline curve analysis of oil production data gives reasonable answer in hyperbolic type curves situations; however the methodology has limitations in fitting real historical production data in present of unusual observations due to the effect of the treatment to the well in order to increase production capacity. The development ofrobust least squares offers new possibilities in better fitting production data using declinecurve analysis by down weighting the unusual observations. This paper proposes a robustleast squares fitting lmRobMM approach to estimate the decline rate of daily production data and compares the results with reservoir simulation results. For case study, we usethe oil production data at TBA Field West Java. The results demonstrated that theapproach is suitable for decline curve fitting and offers a new insight in decline curve analysis in the present of unusual observations.

  13. Cancer as part of the journey: the role of spirituality in the decision to decline conventional prostate cancer treatment and to use complementary and alternative medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Margaret; Verhoef, Marja

    2006-06-01

    The role of spirituality in patients' use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) approaches to cancer management has hardly been explored. To explore the role of spirituality in cancer management by men with prostate cancer who have declined conventional treatment and are using CAM. This qualitative analysis is part of a longitudinal study to assess decision making by men with prostate cancer who decline conventional treatment and use CAM. In-depth interviews were conducted at study entry (n = 29). Themes were presented to participants in focus groups to further explore and validate the interview results. For a subset of participants (n = 10), spirituality emerged as an important theme; therefore, we conducted a secondary analysis of the interview data of these men to explore the role of spirituality in cancer management and decision making. Spirituality appeared to influence all aspects of the cancer experience. Most participants intensified their use of spiritual practice after a diagnosis of prostate cancer. These practices included spiritual ceremonies, indigenous healing, prayer, meditation, and use of spiritual imagery. Themes related to the role of spirituality in cancer management include beliefs about Western medicine, the role of spiritual beliefs in treatment decision making, the use of spiritual imager y and metaphor in healing, and the impact of cancer on spirituality. The discussion of these themes draws on quotes and case examples, illustrating how spirituality influenced study participants' response to diagnosis, treatment decision making, and cancer care. Two case examples provide a more in-depth understanding of how some participants incorporated spiritual imagery and metaphor into treatment decision making and cancer care. Ways in which cancer influenced spirituality are also discussed. Having prostate cancer appeared to influence their spirituality by strengthening their links with a spiritual community, increasing feelings of gratitude

  14. Health-related effects of early part-time sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiri, Rahman; Kausto, Johanna; Martimo, Kari-Pekka; Kaila-Kangas, Leena; Takala, Esa-Pekka; Viikari-Juntura, Eira

    2013-01-01

    Previously we reported that early part-time sick leave enhances return to work (RTW) among employees with musculoskeletal disorders (MSD). This paper assesses the health-related effects of this intervention. Patients aged 18-60 years who were unable to perform their regular work due to MSD were randomized to part- or full-time sick leave groups. In the former, workload was reduced by halving working time. Using validated questionnaires, we assessed pain intensity and interference with work and sleep, region-specific disability due to MSD, self-rated general health, health-related quality of life (measured via EuroQol), productivity loss, depression, and sleep disturbance at baseline, 1, 3, 8, 12, and 52 weeks. We analyzed the repeated measures data (171-356 observations) with the generalized estimating equation approach. The intervention (part-time sick leave) and control (full-time sick leave) groups did not differ with regard to pain intensity, pain interference with work and sleep, region-specific disability, productivity loss, depression, or sleep disturbance. The intervention group reported better self-rated general health (adjusted P=0.07) and health-related quality of life (adjusted P=0.02) than the control group. In subgroup analyses, the intervention was more effective among the patients whose current problem began occurring part-time sick leave did not exacerbate pain-related symptoms and functional disability, but improved self-rated general health and health-related quality of life in the early stage of work disability due to MSD.

  15. Return to work after early part-time sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Kausto, Johanna; Shiri, Rahman; Kaila-Kangas, Leena; Takala, Esa-Pekka; Karppinen, Jaro; Miranda, Helena; Luukkonen, Ritva; Martimo, Kari-Pekka

    2012-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of early part-time sick leave on return to work (RTW) and sickness absence among patients with musculoskeletal disorders. A randomized controlled trial was conducted in six occupational health units of medium- and large-size enterprises. Patients aged 18-60 years with musculoskeletal disorders (N=63) unable to perform their regular work were randomly allocated to part- or full-time sick leave. In the former group, workload was reduced by restricting work time by about a half. Remaining work tasks were modified when necessary, as specified in a "fit note" from the physician. The main outcomes were time to return to regular work activities and sickness absence during 12-month follow-up. Time to RTW sustained for ≥4 weeks was shorter in the intervention group (median 12 versus 20 days, P=0.10). Hazard ratio of RTW adjusted for age was 1.60 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.98-2.63] and 1.76 (95% CI 1.21-2.56) after further adjustment for pain interference with sleep and previous sickness absence at baseline. Total sickness absence during the 12-month follow-up was about 20% lower in the intervention than the control group. Compliance with the intervention was high with no discontinuations of part-time sick leave due to musculoskeletal reasons. Early part-time sick leave may provide a faster and more sustainable return to regular duties than full-time sick leave among patients with musculoskeletal disorders. This is the first study to show that work participation can be safely increased with early part-time sick leave.

  16. 34 CFR Appendix C to Part 682 - Procedures for Curing Violations of the Due Diligence in Collection and Timely Filing of Claims...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for Curing Violations of the Due Diligence... Appendix C to Part 682—Procedures for Curing Violations of the Due Diligence in Collection and Timely... lenders to use (1) to cure violations of the requirements for due diligence in collection (“due diligence...

  17. Doses in various parts of the biosphere due to long-lived radionuclides originating from deep geological repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergstroem, U.; Karlsson, Sara; Nordlinder, S.

    1999-01-01

    Turnover of radionuclides and resulting doses to man were modelled for various parts of the biosphere. This was made for different scenarios of leakage of radionuclides from a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel and other waste. In previous studies, the emphasis was on doses from contaminated ground water represented by a well or various surface waters. This was because radionuclides were assumed to be released directly to surface water, the use of which subsequently formed the major pathway for radionuclides to agricultural areas. In the present study, radionuclides were considered to reach lakes, running waters, coastal areas, agricultural areas and peat areas. The inflow of radionuclides to agricultural areas was supposed to be from below. Doses due to direct use of contaminated ground water from a well were also considered. Altogether 44 radionuclides contained in the waste were assumed to be released during 10,000 years, with a rate of 1 Bq/year of each radionuclide, to each of the above mentioned biospheric parts. During that time, the biospheric conditions were assumed to be the same as they are today. Doses to the critical group were calculated by exposure pathways specific for each entry-point All calculations were performed with estimation of confidence due to time-dependent parameter variation and uncertainty in input values. The results indicate that drinking water from wells is not a critical exposure pathway for all studied radionuclides. Instead, inflow of contaminated water to soil and peat bogs may be crucial for illustration of doses for geological high-level waste disposal. Improved knowledge of processes at the geosphere-biosphere interface is therefore important

  18. Improvement of the efficiency of the Agnew micro hydro turbine at part loads due to installing guide vanes mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yassi, Yousef; hashemloo, Safar [Iranian Research Organization for Science and Technology (IROST), No. 29 Forssat St., Enghelaab Ave., Tehran (Iran)

    2010-10-15

    Agnew turbine is an axial micro hydro of Kaplan type, with its main shaft subtending 45 to the line of horizon. Due to governmental power generating programs for limited hydro potentials in Iran and on the basis of a joint project between the University of Glasgow and the Iranian Research Organization for Science and Technology (IROST), the turbine was developed to operate under low heads and limited flow potentials in Iran. However the turbine was originally designed to operate without any guide vanes and test results showed that the turbine achieved an efficiency of 62% at its best point of performance. Later a modified Agnew turbine, consisting of a guide blades mechanism was designed and manufactured, at (IROST). The mechanism was so designed that it was also used as a second support for the turbine's main shaft. The standard turbine tests proved that; the modified version of the Agnew turbine had 23% higher efficiency at its best performance point; compared to the original design. Then the effects of the improvements on the turbine were studied on the performance of the turbine at part loads. However, efficiency improvements were observed under all part load conditions. (author)

  19. Improvement of the efficiency of the Agnew micro hydro turbine at part loads due to installing guide vanes mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yassi, Yousef; Hashemloo, Safar

    2010-01-01

    Agnew turbine is an axial micro hydro of Kaplan type, with its main shaft subtending 45 deg. to the line of horizon. Due to governmental power generating programs for limited hydro potentials in Iran and on the basis of a joint project between the University of Glasgow and the Iranian Research Organization for Science and Technology (IROST), the turbine was developed to operate under low heads and limited flow potentials in Iran. However the turbine was originally designed to operate without any guide vanes and test results showed that the turbine achieved an efficiency of 62% at its best point of performance. Later a modified Agnew turbine, consisting of a guide blades mechanism was designed and manufactured, at (IROST). The mechanism was so designed that it was also used as a second support for the turbine's main shaft. The standard turbine tests proved that; the modified version of the Agnew turbine had 23% higher efficiency at its best performance point; compared to the original design. Then the effects of the improvements on the turbine were studied on the performance of the turbine at part loads. However, efficiency improvements were observed under all part load conditions.

  20. ATWS: a reappraisal, part II, evaluation of societal risks due to reactor protection systems failure. Vol. 3. Pwr risk analysis. Phase report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lellouche, G.S.

    1976-08-01

    This document is the third volume of part 2 in a series of studies which will examine the basis for the problem of Anticipated Transients Without Scram (ATWS). The purpose of part 2 is an evaluation of societal risks due to RPS failure based on more current data and methodology than used in WASH-1270. This volume examines and documents the potential contribution to societal risk due to ATWS in the PWR. Volumes 1 and 2 described a similar analysis for the BWR

  1. Novel Method of Production Decline Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Shan; Lan, Yifei; He, Lei; Jiao, Yang; Wu, Yong

    2018-02-01

    ARPS decline curves is the most commonly used in oil and gas field due to its minimal data requirements and ease application. And prediction of production decline which is based on ARPS analysis rely on known decline type. However, when coefficient index are very approximate under different decline type, it is difficult to directly recognize decline trend of matched curves. Due to difficulties above, based on simulation results of multi-factor response experiments, a new dynamic decline prediction model is introduced with using multiple linear regression of influence factors. First of all, according to study of effect factors of production decline, interaction experimental schemes are designed. Based on simulated results, annual decline rate is predicted by decline model. Moreover, the new method is applied in A gas filed of Ordos Basin as example to illustrate reliability. The result commit that the new model can directly predict decline tendency without needing recognize decline style. From arithmetic aspect, it also take advantage of high veracity. Finally, the new method improves the evaluation method of gas well production decline in low permeability gas reservoir, which also provides technical support for further understanding of tight gas field development laws.

  2. Absorbed doses to the main parts of eyeball due to use 90Sr + 90Y ophthalmic applicator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Lishu

    1993-05-01

    The ophthalmic radiotherapy dosimetry and some affecting factors are introduced. The distributions of absorbed doses to the main parts of a fresh eyeball such as the cornea, sclera, lens and anterior chamber, during the radiotherapy by using a 90 Sr + 90 Y ophthalmic applicator are presented. An tissue-equivalent extrapolation ionization chamber was used in the dose measurement. The reasonable doses during ophthalmic radiotherapy for different depths have been obtained. Therefore, the absorbed dose to the lens, the most sensitive organ, can be given. These data are useful for radiation protection in ophthalmic radiotherapy

  3. Regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection - Part 1: The participatory modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheer, Dirk; Konrad, Wilfried; Class, Holger; Kissinger, Alexander; Knopf, Stefan; Noack, Vera

    2017-06-01

    Saltwater intrusion into potential drinking water aquifers due to the injection of CO2 into deep saline aquifers is one of the potential hazards associated with the geological storage of CO2. Thus, in a site selection process, models for predicting the fate of the displaced brine are required, for example, for a risk assessment or the optimization of pressure management concepts. From the very beginning, this research on brine migration aimed at involving expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessment in simulating the impacts of injecting CO2 into deep saline aquifers by means of a participatory modeling process. The involvement exercise made use of two approaches. First, guideline-based interviews were carried out, aiming at eliciting expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessments of geological structures and mechanisms affecting CO2-induced brine migration. Second, a stakeholder workshop including the World Café format yielded evaluations and judgments of the numerical modeling approach, scenario selection, and preliminary simulation results. The participatory modeling approach gained several results covering brine migration in general, the geological model sketch, scenario development, and the review of the preliminary simulation results. These results were included in revised versions of both the geological model and the numerical model, helping to improve the analysis of regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection.

  4. Analysis of ultrasonic beam profile due to change of elements' number for phased array transducer (part 2)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sang Woo; Lee, Joon Hyun

    1998-01-01

    The phased array offers many advantages and improvements over conventional single-element transducers such as the straight-beam and angle-beam. The advantages of array sensors for large structures are two folds; firstly, array transducers provide a method of rapid beam steering and sequential addressing of a large area of interest without requiring mechanical or manual scanning which is particularly important in real-time application. Secondly, array transducer provide a method of dynamic focusing, in which the focal length of the ultrasonic beam varies as the pulse propagates through the material. There are some parameters such as number, size, center to center space of elements to design phased array transducer. In previous study. the characteristics of beam steering and dynamic focusing had been simulated for ultrasonic SH-wave with varying the number of phased array transducer's element. In this study, the characteristic of beam steering for phased array transducer has been simulated for ultrasonic SH-wave on the basis of Huygen's principle with varying center to center space of elements. Ultrasonic beam directivity and focusing due to change of time delay of each element were discussed with varying center to center space of elements.

  5. Decline traffic information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Plessis, K [Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Sydney (Australia)

    2007-09-06

    BHP Billion (BHPB) Cannington has experienced problems in regards to their traffic flow in the decline at the mine. The problems related to reports on near misses of vehicles moving towards each other in the decline. The decline is also to narrow for trucks to pass each other and the operators need to be aware of oncoming traffic in the decline to ensure they could take early evasive steps to ensure the rules of right of way in the decline are adhered to. BHPB Cannington requested CSC to conduct a problem analysis and to provide a solutions proposal to Cannington. The solution was put forward as an augmentation of their current safety procedures used with in the decline. During this phase of the project CSC developed a solutions architecture which involved the use of Active (Radio Frequency Identification) RFID tagging which will enable vehicle movement tracking on a real time basis after which the appropriate traffic movement can be relayed to the operators in the decline. The primary objective of the DTIS is to provide accurate information of traffic movement in the decline and present that information to the operators of the decline IN THE DECLINE upon which they would make their decisions. (orig.)

  6. Elimination of malaria due to Plasmodium vivax in central part of the People’s Republic of China: analysis and prediction based on modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Chen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Five provinces in central People’s Republic of China (P.R. China have successfully reduced the burden of malaria due to Plasmodium vivax in the last 7 years. The results of the Action Plan of China Malaria Elimination (APCME that com- menced in 2010 are analysed against the background of the progress reached by the national malaria control programme (NMEP that was launched in 2006. We examined the epidemiological changes in the number of autochthonous cases over time and discuss the feasibility of achieving the goal of malaria elimination by 2020. There was a total decline of 34,320 malaria cases between 2006 and 2012 arriving at an average annual incidence of 0.04 per 10,000 people by 2012. At the same time, the number of counties reporting autochthonous cases declined from 290 to 19. Spatial autocorrelation and Bayesian modelling were used to evaluate the datasets and predict the spatio-temporal pattern in the near future. The former approach showed that spatial clusters of P. vivax malaria existed in the study region during the study period, while the risk prediction map generated by the Bayesian model indicates that only sporadic malaria cases will appear during in the future. The results suggest that the initial NMEP approach and the follow-up APCME strategy have played a key role in reducing the threat of malaria in central P.R. China. However, to achieve the goal of malaria elimination by the end of the current decade, interven- tion plans must be adjusted with attention paid to those endemic counties still at risk according to the prediction map.

  7. What Makes Clusters Decline?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

    2015-01-01

    Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark. The longit...... but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

  8. Particle retention in porous media: Applications to water injectivity decline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wennberg, Kjell Erik

    1998-12-31

    This thesis studies the problem of migration and deposition of colloidal particles within porous media, theoretically and by computerized simulation. Special emphasis is put on the prediction of injectivity decline in water injection wells due to inherent particles in the injection water. The study of particle deposition within porous media requires a correct prediction of the deposition rate or filtration coefficient. A thorough review of the modeling approaches used in the past are combined with new ideas in order to arrive at an improved model for the prediction of the filtration coefficient. A new way of determining the transition time for the dominant deposition mechanism to change from internal deposition to external cake formation is proposed. From this fundamental theory, equations are given for water injectivity decline predictions. A computer program called WID for water injectivity decline predictions was developed. Using water quality, formation properties, injection rate/pressure and completion information as input, WID predicts decline in vertical and horizontal injection wells with openhole, perforated and fractured completions. The calculations agree fairly well with field data; in some cases the agreement is excellent. A poor match in a few cases indicates that more mechanisms may be responsible for injectivity decline than those presently accounted for by the simulator. The second part of the study deals with a theoretical investigation of the multi-dimensional nature of particle deposition in porous media. 112 refs., 100 figs., 9 tabs.

  9. US Historic Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This programs derives a table of secular change in magnetic declination for a specified point in the conterminous United States. It utilizes the USD polynomial and...

  10. Spiral of Decline or "Beacon of Hope": Stories of School Choice in a Dual Language School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Timothy; Wolgemuth, Jennifer R.; Colomer, Soria E.

    2015-01-01

    Public schools in some areas of the U.S. are as segregated as they were prior to court-ordered busing, in part due to school choice policies that appear to exacerbate extant segregation. In particular, Latina/o students are increasingly isolated in schools characterized as being in cycles of decline. Our case study of one such school is based on a…

  11. Forest decline through radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reichelt, G.; Kollert, R.

    1985-01-01

    Is more serious damage of forest observed in the vicinity of nuclear reactors. How are those decline patterns to be explained. Does the combined effect of radioactivity and different air pollutants (such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, oxidants etc.) have an influence in the decline of the forest. In what way do synergisms, i.e. mutually enhanced effects, participate. How does natural and artificial radioactivity affect the chemistry of air in the polluted atmosphere. What does this mean for the extension of nuclear energy, especially for the reprocessing plant planned. Damage in the forests near nuclear and industrial plants was mapped and the resulting hypotheses on possible emittors were statistically verified. Quantitative calculations as to the connection between nuclear energy and forest decline were carried through: they demand action. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Cluster Decline and Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

    Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark, 1963......-2011. Our longitudinal study reveals that technological lock-in and exit of key firms have contributed to impairment of the cluster’s resilience in adapting to disruptions. Entrepreneurship has a positive effect on cluster resilience, while multinational companies have contradicting effects by bringing...... in new resources to the cluster but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

  13. Early-Transition Output Decline Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crt Kostevc

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we revisit the issue of aggregate output decline that took place in the early transition period. We propose an alternative explanation of output decline that is applicable to Central- and Eastern-European countries. In the first part of the paper we develop a simple dynamic general equilibrium model that builds on work by Gomulka and Lane (2001. In particular, we consider price liberalization, interpreted as elimination of distortionary taxation, as a trigger of the output decline. We show that price liberalization in interaction with heterogeneous adjustment costs and non-employment benefits lead to aggregate output decline and surge in wage inequality. While these patterns are consistent with actual dynamics in CEE countries, this model cannot generate output decline in all sectors. Instead sectors that were initially taxed even exhibit output growth. Thus, in the second part we consider an alternative general equilibrium model with only one production sector and two types of labor and distortion in a form of wage compression during the socialist era. The trigger for labor mobility and consequently output decline is wage liberalization. Assuming heterogeneity of workers in terms of adjustment costs and non-employment benefits can explain output decline in all industries.

  14. Decline and infiltrated lung

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraldo Estrada, Horacio; Arboleda Casas, Felipe; Duarte, Monica; Triana Harker, Ricardo

    2001-01-01

    The paper describes the decline and infiltrated lung in a patient of 45 years, with diagnosis of arthritis rheumatoid from the 43 years, asymptomatic, without treatment, married, of the 15 to the 35 years of 3 to 10 cigarettes daily, she refers of 7 months of evolution episodes of moderate dyspnoea with exercises and dry cough with occasional mucous expectoration between others

  15. Assessment of natural radioactivity levels due to 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in the soil samples from eastern part of Gulbarga, Karnataka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajesh, S.; Avinash, P.R.; Kerur, B.R.; Anilkumar, S.

    2014-01-01

    The natural radiation dose received by the public mainly arises from the cosmic radiation (galactic and solar) and from terrestrial sources. Terrestrial radiation levels in the environment are due to radiations from natural radioactive elements preset in various environmental materials. Naturally occurring radionuclides are the major contributors to the total effective dose of ionizing radiation received by the population. The gamma rays from natural radionuclides like 226 Ra, 232T h and 40 K are the most significant for environmental dose, due to its wide range and penetrating power. The occurrence and concentration of these radionuclides depend mainly on the local geological formation and geochemical composition of earth. Two adjoining talukas, Sedam and Chincholi selected for the present study lies in the eastern part of Gulbarga district of North-East Karnataka covers the area with range 17.12° - 17.51° N latitude and 77.08° - 77.85° E longitude as shown in the paper. The soil types in the study region are mainly black soil. The area is surrounded by the plane surface and small hills in certain directions which have an abundant resource of the shale and limestone, which are highly deformed in nature. The study area is popular for industries like cement production and granite mining, utilizing natural resources in large scale. It will be of interest to examine the variation of environmental radiation dose rates due to various activities in the study area. Large number surface soil samples have been collected from the study region for the assessment of effective dose from 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K. The data generated in this study region will act as a baseline data for natural background radiation and is essential for future assessments, comparison and radiological mapping of the study area

  16. Status and trends of amphibian declines and extinctions worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart, Simon N; Chanson, Janice S; Cox, Neil A; Young, Bruce E; Rodrigues, Ana S L; Fischman, Debra L; Waller, Robert W

    2004-12-03

    The first global assessment of amphibians provides new context for the well-publicized phenomenon of amphibian declines. Amphibians are more threatened and are declining more rapidly than either birds or mammals. Although many declines are due to habitat loss and overutilization, other, unidentified processes threaten 48% of rapidly declining species and are driving species most quickly to extinction. Declines are nonrandom in terms of species' ecological preferences, geographic ranges, and taxonomic associations and are most prevalent among Neotropical montane, stream-associated species. The lack of conservation remedies for these poorly understood declines means that hundreds of amphibian species now face extinction.

  17. The fertility decline in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, W C; Harbison, S F

    1995-01-01

    In Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya is a prime example of a country experiencing a rapid decline in fertility and greater contraceptive prevalence. These changes have occurred since 1980 when fertility was high at 8.0 children per woman. In 1993 the total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.4, and the growth rate declined to about 2.0%. This transition is swifter than any country in contemporary Asia or historical Europe. The likely projection for Kenya is attainment of replacement level fertility during the 2020s and a leveling of population at about 100 million persons. Fertility has declined the most in urban areas and central and eastern regions. Bongaarts' proximate determinants (TFR, total marital fertility rate, total natural marital fertility rate, and total fecundity) are reduced to the proportion of currently married women using contraception, the proportion in lactational nonfecund status, and the proportion currently married. Actual fertility change is accounted for by total fertility change of 3.0 children. Lactational infecundability accounts for 0.5 potential births, and changes in marital fertility account for 1.0 reduced births per woman. About 70% of fertility reduction is accounted for by contraception and abortion. During 1977-78 80% of fertility control was due to lactational nonfecundity, 10% to nonmarriage, and 10% to contraception. In 1993 lactational nonfecundity accounted for 50% of the reduction, nonmarriage for 20%, and abortion about 30%. Future fertility is expected to be dependent on contraceptive prevalence. Kenya has experienced the Coale paradigm of preconditions necessary for demographic transition (willing, ready, and able). High fertility in Africa is not intractable. Creating the change in attitudes that leads to readiness is linked to education, health, and exposure to modernizing media and urban lifestyles. The public sector family planning program in Kenya has created the opportunity for access and availability of contraception. The key

  18. Increased Cortical Inhibition in Autism-Linked Neuroligin-3R451C Mice Is Due in Part to Loss of Endocannabinoid Signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speed, Haley E; Masiulis, Irene; Gibson, Jay R; Powell, Craig M

    2015-01-01

    A single, maternally inherited, X-linked point mutation leading to an arginine to cysteine substitution at amino acid 451 (R451C) of Neuroligin 3 (NLGN3R451C) is a likely cause of autism in two brothers. Knockin mice expressing the Nlgn3R451C mutation in place of wild-type Nlgn3 demonstrate increased inhibitory synaptic strength in somatosensory cortex, resulting in an excitatory/inhibitory (E/I) imbalance that is potentially relevant for autism-associated behavioral deficits characteristic of these mice. We have replicated the increase in evoked inhibitory postsynaptic currents (eIPSCs) onto layer II/III cortical pyramidal neurons. We also find that increased frequency of spontaneous mIPSCs in Nlgn3R451C mice occurs in the absence of action potential-driven transmission. This suggests the E/I imbalance is due to changes at the synapse level, as opposed to the network level. Next, we use paired whole-cell recordings in an attempt to identify specific interneuron subtypes affected by the Nlgn3R451C mutation. Curiously, we observe no change in the amplitude of cell-to-cell, unitary IPSCs (uIPSCs) from parvalbumin-positive (PV) or somatostatin-positive (SOM) interneurons onto pyramidal neurons. We also observe no change in the number or density of PV and SOM interneurons in LII/III of somatosensory cortex. This effectively rules out a role for these particular interneurons in the increased inhibitory synaptic transmission, pointing to perhaps alternative interneuron subtypes. Lastly, impaired endocannabinoid signaling has been implicated in hippocampal synaptic dysfunction in Nlgn3R451C mice, but has not been investigated at cortical synapses. We find that bath application of the CB1 antagonist, AM 251 in WT mice eliminates the Nlgn3R451C increase in eIPSC amplitude and mIPSC frequency, indicating that increased inhibitory transmission in mutant mice is due, at least in part, to a loss of endocannabinoid signaling through CB1 receptors likely acting at interneurons

  19. Increased Cortical Inhibition in Autism-Linked Neuroligin-3R451C Mice Is Due in Part to Loss of Endocannabinoid Signaling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haley E Speed

    Full Text Available A single, maternally inherited, X-linked point mutation leading to an arginine to cysteine substitution at amino acid 451 (R451C of Neuroligin 3 (NLGN3R451C is a likely cause of autism in two brothers. Knockin mice expressing the Nlgn3R451C mutation in place of wild-type Nlgn3 demonstrate increased inhibitory synaptic strength in somatosensory cortex, resulting in an excitatory/inhibitory (E/I imbalance that is potentially relevant for autism-associated behavioral deficits characteristic of these mice. We have replicated the increase in evoked inhibitory postsynaptic currents (eIPSCs onto layer II/III cortical pyramidal neurons. We also find that increased frequency of spontaneous mIPSCs in Nlgn3R451C mice occurs in the absence of action potential-driven transmission. This suggests the E/I imbalance is due to changes at the synapse level, as opposed to the network level. Next, we use paired whole-cell recordings in an attempt to identify specific interneuron subtypes affected by the Nlgn3R451C mutation. Curiously, we observe no change in the amplitude of cell-to-cell, unitary IPSCs (uIPSCs from parvalbumin-positive (PV or somatostatin-positive (SOM interneurons onto pyramidal neurons. We also observe no change in the number or density of PV and SOM interneurons in LII/III of somatosensory cortex. This effectively rules out a role for these particular interneurons in the increased inhibitory synaptic transmission, pointing to perhaps alternative interneuron subtypes. Lastly, impaired endocannabinoid signaling has been implicated in hippocampal synaptic dysfunction in Nlgn3R451C mice, but has not been investigated at cortical synapses. We find that bath application of the CB1 antagonist, AM 251 in WT mice eliminates the Nlgn3R451C increase in eIPSC amplitude and mIPSC frequency, indicating that increased inhibitory transmission in mutant mice is due, at least in part, to a loss of endocannabinoid signaling through CB1 receptors likely acting at

  20. Mangrove forest decline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malik, Abdul; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    Mangrove forests in the tropics and subtropics grow in saline sediments in coastal and estuarine environments. Preservation of mangrove forests is important for many reasons, including the prevention of coastal erosion and seawater intrusion; the provision of spawning, nursery, and feeding grounds...... of diverse marine biota; and for direct use (such as firewood, charcoal, and construction material)—all of which benefit the sustainability of local communities. However, for many mangrove areas of the world, unsustainable resource utilization and the profit orientation of communities have often led to rapid...... and severe mangrove loss with serious consequences. The mangrove forests of the Takalar District, South Sulawesi, are studied here as a case area that has suffered from degradation and declining spatial extent during recent decades. On the basis of a post-classification comparison of change detection from...

  1. Predicting flux decline of reverse osmosis membranes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schippers, J.C.; Hanemaayer, J.H.; Smolders, C.A.; Kostense, A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model predicting flux decline of reverse osmosis membranes due to colloidal fouling has been verified. This mathema- tical model is based on the theory of cake or gel filtration and the Modified Fouling Index (MFI). Research was conducted using artificial colloidal solutions and a

  2. Temporal variations of the fractal properties of seismicity in the western part of the north Anatolian fault zone: possible artifacts due to improvements in station coverage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. O. Öncel

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available Seismically-active fault zones are complex natural systems exhibiting scale-invariant or fractal correlation between earthquakes in space and time, and a power-law scaling of fault length or earthquake source dimension consistent with the exponent b of the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. The fractal dimension of seismicity is a measure of the degree of both the heterogeneity of the process (whether fixed or self-generated and the clustering of seismic activity. Temporal variations of the b-value and the two-point fractal (correlation dimension Dc have been related to the preparation process for natural earthquakes and rock fracture in the laboratory These statistical scaling properties of seismicity may therefore have the potential at least to be sensitive short- term predictors of major earthquakes. The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ is a seismicallyactive dextral strike slip fault zone which forms the northern boundary of the westward moving Anatolian plate. It is splayed into three branches at about 31oE and continues westward toward the northern Aegean sea. In this study, we investigate the temporal variation of Dc and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value for seismicity in the western part of the NAFZ (including the northern Aegean sea for earthquakes of Ms > 4.5 occurring in the period between 1900 and 1992. b ranges from 0.6-1.6 and Dc from 0.6 to 1.4. The b-value is found to be weakly negatively correlated with Dc (r=-0.56. However the (log of event rate N is positively correlated with b, with a similar degree of statistical significance (r=0.42, and negatively correlated with Dc (r=-0.48. Since N increases dramatically with improved station coverage since 1970, the observed negative correlation between b and Dc is therefore more likely to be due to this effect than any underlying physical process in this case. We present this as an example of how man-made artefacts of recording can have similar statistical effects to

  3. Idaho Power's reverses decline with employee increase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    Following several years of decline, the number of full-time Idaho Power employees increased to 1,528 at the end of 1989, up from 1,500 in 1988. The increase reversed a steady decline that began in 1984 when the company had a peak employment of 1,725. Last year's increase in the work force in part reflects recent additions in customers served and the electric demands of an expanding economy in the service area, as well as new regulatory requirements, the company said

  4. Dealing with challenges in taking active part in care after hospitalization due to exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: experiences of patients and their relatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ingrid Charlotte; Thomsen, Thora Grothe; Poul, Bruun

    daily activities. Patients’ participating in own care is crucial but little is known about patients’ and their relatives’ experienced challenges and obstacles to succeed herewith. Aim: The aim of this study was to explore COPD patients’ and their relatives’ experiences of taking active part in their own...... care within a year after hospitalization. Methods: An ethnographic inspired field study was conducted among fifteen COPD patients and twelve relatives. Data were collected by participant observation and informal interviews at hospital. This was supplemented by in-depth interviews six and twelve months...... professionals’ claims to take active part in care. Relevance to clinical practice: Healthcare professionals can learn from patients’ and relatives’ experiences to obtain insight into challenges in taking active part in their own care. The gained insight could be useful in improving future follow...

  5. Ductility improvement due to martensite α' decomposition in porous Ti-6Al-4V parts produced by selective laser melting for orthopedic implants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallica-Leva, E; Caram, R; Jardini, A L; Fogagnolo, J B

    2016-02-01

    Ti-6Al-4V parts obtained by selective laser melting typically have an acicular α' martensitic microstructure whose ductility is low. Thus, post-heat treatments are useful for increasing ductility. In this work, the effects of sub-β-transus heat treatments on the mechanical properties of Ti-6Al-4V parts with porous structures are correlated with martensite α' phase decomposition. The precipitation of β phase and the gradual transformation of α' into α phase by the diffusion of excess vanadium from α' to β phase are proposed to be the main events of martensite α' phase decomposition in parts fabricated by selective laser melting. The heat treatment performed at 650°C for 1h produced no microstructural changes, but the samples treated for at the same temperature 2h showed a fine precipitation of β phase along the α' needle boundaries. The heat treatment performed at 800°C for 1 or 2h produced a fine α+β microstructure, in which β phase are present as particles fewer in number and larger in size, when compared with the ones present in the sample heat-treated at 650°C for 2h. Heat-treatment of the parts at 800°C for 2h proved to be the best condition, which improved the ductility of the samples while only slightly reducing their strength. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. POPULATION DECLINES OF THE PUERTO RICAN VIREO IN GUANICA FOREST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    JOHN FAABORG; KATE M. DUGGER; WAYNE J. ARENDT; BETHANY L. WOODWORTH; MICHAEL E. BALTZ

    1997-01-01

    Abundance of the Puerto Rican Vireo (Vireo Zutimeri) in Guanica Forest, Puerto Rico, has declined gradually over the period 1973-1996 as determined by constant effort mist netting. Concurrent studies of breeding vireos show low nesting success, primarily due to parasitism by Shiny Cowbirds (Molothrus bonariensis). This decline may reflect the rather recent entry of the...

  7. Mobility decline in old age

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rantakokko, Merja; Mänty, Minna Regina; Rantanen, Taina

    2013-01-01

    Mobility is important for community independence. With increasing age, underlying pathologies, genetic vulnerabilities, physiological and sensory impairments, and environmental barriers increase the risk for mobility decline. Understanding how mobility declines is paramount to finding ways...... to promote mobility in old age....

  8. Additional pest surveyed: hickory decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer Juzwik; Ji-Hyun. Park

    2011-01-01

    A five year investigation of the cause of rapid crown decline and mortality of bitternut hickory was concluded in September 2011. Results of a series of related studies found that multiple cankers and xylem (the water conducting tissue) dysfunction caused by Ceratocystis smalleyi are correlated with rapid crown decline typical of a limited vascular...

  9. Systematic reviews of physical and rehabilitation medicine Cochrane contents. Part 1. Disabilities due to spinal disorders and pain syndromes in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negrini, S; Imperio, G; Villafañe, J H; Negrini, F; Zaina, F

    2013-08-01

    This article is the first in a series presenting the strongest published evidence for physical and rehabilitation medicine (PRM) to date coming from the Cochrane Collaboration. The intent of the series is to stimulate ideas for reviews and research in neglected areas of PRM. To systematically review the rehabilitation contents of the Cochrane Collaboration on disabilities due to spinal disorders or pain syndromes in adults. The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was searched at the end of June 2013 for articles relevant for PRM about disabilities resulting from spinal disorders or pain syndromes in adults. Retrieved papers were classified according to the PRM approach: active therapies, which require active participation by patients to achieve treatment goals, and passive treatments, which rely on the application of external forces. The quality of the reviews was checked against the AMSTAR checklist. Reviews on spinal disorders or pain syndromes were found in the Cochrane Back Group (CBG) and in the Pain, Palliative and Supportive Care Group (CPPSCG). Thirty-eight (42.8%) of 89 Cochrane reviews in the CBG and 7 (2.4%) of 293 Cochrane reviews in the CPPSCG were included. All were of high quality (range, 8-11 points out of 11 on the AMSTAR checklist). The contents of the reviews are given in detail. This review presents an overview of the current evidence for PRM in the treatment of disabilities due to spinal disorders or pain syndromes in adults. Within PRM there is ample space for research in the Cochrane Collaboration and for producing original studies (randomized controlled trials [RCTs]). To apply evidence-based clinical practice, clinicians must be familiar with the current best evidence.

  10. Development of tsunami fragility evaluation methods by large scale experiments. Part 2. Validation of the applicability of evaluation methods of impact force due to tsunami floating debris

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takabatake, Daisuke; Kihara, Naoto; Kaida, Hideki; Miyagawa, Yoshinori; Ikeno, Masaaki; Shibayama, Atsushi

    2015-01-01

    In order to examine the applicability of the existing estimation equations of the impact force due to tsunami floating debris, the collision tests are carried out. In the experiments, logs and full-scale light car are used. In this report, two types of existing equations, one is based on the Young's module of the debris (Eq.A) and the other one is based on the stiffness of the debris (Eq.B), are focused on. The estimated impact forces using Eq.A with log's Young module obtained by the material test agree with measured forces obtained by the collision test. But Eq.A does not applicate to a car because it is not easy to determine the Young's module of a car. On the other hand, the estimated impact forces using Eq.B with car's stiffness obtained by the static loading test agree with measured forces obtained by the collision test. This indicates that Eq.B unable us to estimate impact force of the floating debris such as car if the stiffness of the debris is determined. (author)

  11. Cognitive decline affects diabetic women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perzyński Adam

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: DM provokes peripheral complications and changes in central nervous system. Central changes in the course of diabetes mellitus (DM include changes in brain tissue structure, electrophysiological abnormalities but also disturbances in neurotransmission leading to cognitive decline.

  12. Due diligence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanghera, G.S.

    1999-01-01

    The Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) Act requires that every employer shall ensure the health and safety of workers in the workplace. Issues regarding the practices at workplaces and how they should reflect the standards of due diligence were discussed. Due diligence was described as being the need for employers to identify hazards in the workplace and to take active steps to prevent workers from potentially dangerous incidents. The paper discussed various aspects of due diligence including policy, training, procedures, measurement and enforcement. The consequences of contravening the OHS Act were also described

  13. Regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection - Part 2: A simulated case study in the North German Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissinger, Alexander; Noack, Vera; Knopf, Stefan; Konrad, Wilfried; Scheer, Dirk; Class, Holger

    2017-06-01

    Saltwater intrusion into potential drinking water aquifers due to the injection of CO2 into deep saline aquifers is one of the hazards associated with the geological storage of CO2. Thus, in a site-specific risk assessment, models for predicting the fate of the displaced brine are required. Practical simulation of brine displacement involves decisions regarding the complexity of the model. The choice of an appropriate level of model complexity depends on multiple criteria: the target variable of interest, the relevant physical processes, the computational demand, the availability of data, and the data uncertainty. In this study, we set up a regional-scale geological model for a realistic (but not real) onshore site in the North German Basin with characteristic geological features for that region. A major aim of this work is to identify the relevant parameters controlling saltwater intrusion in a complex structural setting and to test the applicability of different model simplifications. The model that is used to identify relevant parameters fully couples flow in shallow freshwater aquifers and deep saline aquifers. This model also includes variable-density transport of salt and realistically incorporates surface boundary conditions with groundwater recharge. The complexity of this model is then reduced in several steps, by neglecting physical processes (two-phase flow near the injection well, variable-density flow) and by simplifying the complex geometry of the geological model. The results indicate that the initial salt distribution prior to the injection of CO2 is one of the key parameters controlling shallow aquifer salinization. However, determining the initial salt distribution involves large uncertainties in the regional-scale hydrogeological parameterization and requires complex and computationally demanding models (regional-scale variable-density salt transport). In order to evaluate strategies for minimizing leakage into shallow aquifers, other target

  14. Lung function decline in COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tantucci C

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Claudio Tantucci, Denise ModinaUnit of Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, ItalyAbstract: The landmark study of Fletcher and Peto on the natural history of tobacco smoke-related chronic airflow obstruction suggested that decline in the forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is slow at the beginning, becoming faster with more advanced disease. The present authors reviewed spirometric data of COPD patients included in the placebo arms of recent clinical trials to assess the lung function decline of each stage, defined according to the severity of airflow obstruction as proposed by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD guidelines. In large COPD populations the mean rate of FEV1 decline in GOLD stages II and III is between 47 and 79 mL/year and 56 and 59 mL/year, respectively, and lower than 35 mL/year in GOLD stage IV. Few data on FEV1 decline are available for GOLD stage I. Hence, the loss of lung function, assessed as expiratory airflow reduction, seems more accelerated and therefore more relevant in the initial phases of COPD. To have an impact on the natural history of COPD, it is logical to look at the effects of treatment in the earlier stages.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, decline, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, FEV1

  15. A Model of Batch Scheduling for a Single Batch Processor with Additional Setups to Minimize Total Inventory Holding Cost of Parts of a Single Item Requested at Multi-due-date

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakim Halim, Abdul; Ernawati; Hidayat, Nita P. A.

    2018-03-01

    This paper deals with a model of batch scheduling for a single batch processor on which a number of parts of a single items are to be processed. The process needs two kinds of setups, i. e., main setups required before processing any batches, and additional setups required repeatedly after the batch processor completes a certain number of batches. The parts to be processed arrive at the shop floor at the times coinciding with their respective starting times of processing, and the completed parts are to be delivered at multiple due dates. The objective adopted for the model is that of minimizing total inventory holding cost consisting of holding cost per unit time for a part in completed batches, and that in in-process batches. The formulation of total inventory holding cost is derived from the so-called actual flow time defined as the interval between arrival times of parts at the production line and delivery times of the completed parts. The actual flow time satisfies not only minimum inventory but also arrival and delivery just in times. An algorithm to solve the model is proposed and a numerical example is shown.

  16. With Prudhoe Bay in decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, J.M.; Pollock, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Almost every day, it seems, someone is mentioning Prudhoe Bay---its development activities, the direction of its oil production, and more recently its decline rate. Almost as frequently, someone is mentioning the number of companies abandoning exploration in Alaska. The state faces a double-edged dilemma: decline of its most important oil field and a diminished effort to find a replacement for the lost production. ARCO has seen the Prudhoe Bay decline coming for some time and has been planning for it. We have reduced staff, and ARCO and BP Exploration are finding cost-effective ways to work more closely together through such vehicles as shared services. At the same time, ARCO is continuing its high level of Alaskan exploration. This article will assess the future of Prudhoe Bay from a technical perspective, review ARCO's exploration plans for Alaska, and suggest what the state can do to encourage other companies to invest in this crucial producing region and exploratory frontier

  17. The effect of submerged aquatic vegetation expansion on a declining turbidity trend in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hestir, E.L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Jonathan Greenberg,; Morgan-King, Tara L.; Ustin, S.L.

    2016-01-01

    Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) has well-documented effects on water clarity. SAV beds can slow water movement and reduce bed shear stress, promoting sedimentation and reducing suspension. However, estuaries have multiple controls on turbidity that make it difficult to determine the effect of SAV on water clarity. In this study, we investigated the effect of primarily invasive SAV expansion on a concomitant decline in turbidity in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The objective of this study was to separate the effects of decreasing sediment supply from the watershed from increasing SAV cover to determine the effect of SAV on the declining turbidity trend. SAV cover was determined by airborne hyperspectral remote sensing and turbidity data from long-term monitoring records. The turbidity trends were corrected for the declining sediment supply using suspended-sediment concentration data from a station immediately upstream of the Delta. We found a significant negative trend in turbidity from 1975 to 2008, and when we removed the sediment supply signal from the trend it was still significant and negative, indicating that a factor other than sediment supply was responsible for part of the turbidity decline. Turbidity monitoring stations with high rates of SAV expansion had steeper and more significant turbidity trends than those with low SAV cover. Our findings suggest that SAV is an important (but not sole) factor in the turbidity decline, and we estimate that 21–70 % of the total declining turbidity trend is due to SAV expansion.

  18. Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Joern; Zerger, Andre; Gibbons, Phil; Stott, Jenny; Law, Bradley S.

    2010-01-01

    Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm...

  19. Surrogate inaccuracy in predicting older adults' desire for life-sustaining interventions in the event of decisional incapacity: is it due in part to erroneous quality-of-life assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, Gina; Sene, Modou; Arcand, Marcel

    2017-07-01

    Family members are often called upon to make decisions for an incapacitated relative. Yet they have difficulty predicting a loved one's desire to receive treatments in hypothetical situations. We tested the hypothesis that this difficulty could in part be explained by discrepant quality-of-life assessments. The data come from 235 community-dwelling adults aged 70 years and over who rated their quality of life and desire for specified interventions in four health states (current state, mild to moderate stroke, incurable brain cancer, and severe dementia). All ratings were made on Likert-type scales. Using identical rating scales, a surrogate chosen by the older adult was asked to predict the latter's responses. Linear mixed models were fitted to determine whether differences in quality-of-life ratings between the older adult and surrogate were associated with surrogates' inaccuracy in predicting desire for treatment. The difference in quality-of-life ratings was a significant predictor of prediction inaccuracy for the three hypothetical health states (p quality of life compared to the older adult, the more he or she overestimated the older adult's desire to be treated. Discrepant quality-of-life ratings are associated with surrogates' difficulty in predicting desire for life-sustaining interventions in hypothetical situations. This finding underscores the importance of discussing anticipated quality of life in states of cognitive decline, to better prepare family members for making difficult decisions for their loved ones. ISRCTN89993391.

  20. Strong families and declining fertility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilevych, Yuliya

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the role of family and social relationships in individuals’ reproductive careers during the fertility decline in Soviet Ukraine from around 1950 to 1975. These three decades after the Second World War signified the end of the First Demographic Transition in Ukraine

  1. French Wines on the Decline?:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Bodo

    2004-01-01

    French wines, differentiated by geographic origin, served for many decades as a basis for the French success in the British wine market. However in the early 1990s, market share began to decline. This article explores the values that market participants placed on labelling information on French...

  2. Chinese culture and fertility decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C; Jia, S

    1992-01-01

    Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self

  3. Globalization and the price decline of illicit drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa Storti, Cláudia; De Grauwe, Paul

    2009-01-01

    This study aims at understanding the mechanisms underlying the dramatic decline of the retail prices of major drugs like cocaine and heroin during the past two decades. It also aims at analysing the implications of this decline for drug policies. We use a theoretical model to identify the possible causes of this price decline. This allows us to formulate the hypothesis that the major driving force behind the price decline is a reduction of the intermediation margin (the difference between the retail and producer prices). We also develop the hypothesis that globalization has been an important factor behind the decline of the intermediation margin. We then analyse the statistical information to test these hypotheses. We find that the decline in the retail prices of drugs is related to the strong decline in the intermediation margin in the drug business, and that globalization is the main driving force behind this phenomenon. Globalization has done so by increasing the efficiency of the distribution of drugs, by reducing the risk premium involved in dealing with drugs, and by increasing the degree of competition in the drug markets. We conclude that the cocaine and heroin price declines were due to a sharp fall in the intermediation margin, which was probably influenced by globalization. This phenomenon might have a strong impact on the effectiveness of drug policies, increasing the relative effectiveness of policies aiming at reducing the demand of drugs.

  4. The impact of structural and functional characteristics of social relations as determinants of functional decline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Kirsten; Lund, Rikke; Holstein, Bjørn E

    2004-01-01

    ) and Glostrup (Denmark). The analyses are performed separately for men and women. Possible selection problems were considered by using three outcome measures: first, functional decline among the survivors (n = 425); second, functional decline, including death, assuming that death is part of a general decline...

  5. The Short-term Therapeutic Effect of the Three-part Massotherapy for Insomnia Due to Deficiency of Both the Heart and the Spleen- A Report of 100 Cases

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the short-term therapeutic effect of the three-part massotherapy on insomnia due to deficiency of both the heart and spleen. Methods: Two hundred cases were randomly divided into a treatment group and a control group, each consisting of 100 cases. Patients in the treatment group were treated with the three-part massotherapy, while those in the control group with oral administration of Guipi Wan (归脾丸Pill for Invigorating the Spleen and Nourishing the Heart). The total clinical therapeutic effects, the total scores of Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), Self-rating Anxiety Scale (SAS), and Self-rating Depression Scale (SDS) of the treatment group were compared with those of the control group. Results: After the treatment, the total therapeutic effects, PSQI, SAS, and SDS of the two groups all showed significant improvement (P<0.01), and the scores of the treatment group were superior to those of the control group (P<0.01). Conclusion: The three-part massotherapy has definite therapeutic effects on insomnia due to deficiency of both the heart and the spleen, which is safe and easy to operate, and worthy of popularization.

  6. Part-Time Work and Work Norms in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wielers, Rudi; Raven, Dennis

    We argue that in the Netherlands, due to the growth of part-time work, work norms have declined. The mechanism behind this norm change is in the changed organization of family life. The increased labour market participation of women has put the traditional organization of family life under pressure.

  7. The role of environmental factors in oak decline and mortality in the Ozark Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Kabrick; Daniel C. Dey; Randy G. Jensen; Michael Wallendorf

    2008-01-01

    Oak decline is a chronic problem in Missouri Ozark forests. Red oak group species are most susceptible and decline is reportedly more severe on droughty, nutrient-poor sites. However, it was not clear whether greater decline severity was caused by poor site conditions or is simply due to the greater abundance of red oak group species found on poorer sites. We conducted...

  8. Effects of environmental regulations on heavy metal pollution decline in core sediments from Manila Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosono, Takahiro; Su, Chih-Chieh; Siringan, Fernando; Amano, Atsuko; Onodera, Shin-ichi

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the high-resolution heavy metal pollution history of Manila Bay using heavy metal concentrations and Pb isotope ratios together with 210 Pb dating to find out the effects of environmental regulations after the 1990s. Our results suggested that the rate of decline in heavy metal pollution increased dramatically from the end of the 1990s due to stricter environmental regulations, Administrative Order No. 42, being enforced by the Philippines government. The presented data and methodology should form the basis for future monitoring, leading to pollution control, and to the generation of preventive measures at the pollution source for the maintenance of environmental quality in the coastal metropolitan city of Manila. Although this is the first report of a reduction in pollution in Asian developing country, our results suggest that we can expect to find similar signs of pollution decline in other parts of the world as well.

  9. Energy consumption declined in 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    On presenting the energy consumption figures for 1993 the Minister for Economic Affairs of Baden-Wuerttemberg Dieter Spoeri (SPD) spoke of the eternal task of saving energy. In his view the slight decline in energy consumption from 1992 to 1993 should not be interpreted as a greater willingness to save energy; its main cause is rather to be seen in the course of the economy. According to estimations, total energy consumption fell 0.5% and electricity consumption 1.0% from 1992 to 1993. The economy on the other hand, still a decisive factor in energy consumption, is estimated to have declined 3% during that period. In the ten years from 1983 to 1993 total energy consumption in the Land rose an average annual 1.8% while electricity consumption kept astride with the economy with an average annual rise 2.7%, he said. (orig./HP) [de

  10. Cardiovascular Prevention of Cognitive Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Jacques Monsuez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Midlife cardiovascular risk factors, including diabetes, hypertension, dyslipemia, and an unhealthy lifestyle, have been linked to subsequent incidence, delay of onset, and progression rate of Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia. Conversely, optimal treatment of cardiovascular risk factors prevents and slows down age-related cognitive disorders. The impact of antihypertensive therapy on cognitive outcome in patients with hypertension was assessed in large trials which demonstrated a reduction in progression of MRI white matter hyperintensities, in cognitive decline and in incidence of dementia. Large-scale database correlated statin use and reduction in the incidence of dementia, mainly in patients with documented atherosclerosis, but clinical trials failed to reach similar conclusions. Whether a multitargeted intervention would substantially improve protection, quality of life, and reduce medical cost expenditures in patients with lower risk profile has not been ascertained. This would require appropriately designed trials targeting large populations and focusing on cognitive decline as a primary outcome endpoint.

  11. Are our forests declining. Why

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leygonie, R.

    1991-01-01

    This article first presents the historical background of recent events popularized under the names: acid rains, forests declines. The first major crisis was soil and lake acidifications in Scandinavian countries, then a fast forest decay, first in Germany, in the early eighties, then in a number of European countries, including France. These phenomena were attributed to atmospheric pollutions, essentially acidic pollution. The consequences were drastic legislations in Germany, then the European Directive on large combustion plants (November 1988). Another consequence was the UNECE Convention on long range transport of pollutants (1979). Observations in the field on tree declines (loss of needles or leaves, abnormal yellowings, soil studies, etc.) and laboratory experiments showed that causes are very complex, involving the low quality of soils, abnormal droughts, presence of pollutants in atmosphere, mainly ozone [fr

  12. Cognitive decline in Parkinson disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarsland, Dag; Creese, Byron; Politis, Marios; Chaudhuri, K. Ray; ffytche, Dominic H.; Weintraub, Daniel; Ballard, Clive

    2017-01-01

    Dementia is a frequent problem encountered in advanced stages of Parkinson disease (PD). In recent years, research has focused on the pre-dementia stages of cognitive impairment in PD, including mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Several longitudinal studies have shown that MCI is a harbinger of dementia in PD, although the course is variable, and stabilization of cognition — or even reversal to normal cognition — is not uncommon. In addition to limbic and cortical spread of Lewy pathology, several other mechanisms are likely to contribute to cognitive decline in PD, and a variety of biomarker studies, some using novel structural and functional imaging techniques, have documented in vivo brain changes associated with cognitive impairment. The evidence consistently suggests that low cerebrospinal fluid levels of amyloid-β42, a marker of comorbid Alzheimer disease (AD), predict future cognitive decline and dementia in PD. Emerging genetic evidence indicates that in addition to the APOE*ε4 allele (an established risk factor for AD), GBA mutations and SCNA mutations and triplications are associated with cognitive decline in PD, whereas the findings are mixed for MAPT polymorphisms. Cognitive enhancing medications have some effect in PD dementia, but no convincing evidence that progression from MCI to dementia can be delayed or prevented is available, although cognitive training has shown promising results. PMID:28257128

  13. Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Joern; Zerger, Andre; Gibbons, Phil; Stott, Jenny; Law, Bradley S

    2010-11-09

    Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm will contract to two-thirds of its present level. Statistical habitat models suggest that this tree decline will negatively affect many currently common animal species, with predicted declines in birds and bats of up to 50% by 2100. Declines were predicted for 24 of 32 bird species modeled and for all of six bat species modeled. Widespread declines in trees, birds, and bats may lead to a reduction in economically important ecosystem services such as shade provision for livestock and pest control. Moreover, many other species for which we have no empirical data also depend on trees, suggesting that fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning are likely. We conclude that Australia's temperate agricultural zone has crossed a threshold and no longer functions as a self-sustaining woodland ecosystem. A regime shift is occurring, with a woodland system deteriorating into a treeless pasture system. Management options exist to reverse tree decline, but new policy settings are required to encourage their widespread adoption.

  14. A New Comprehensive Approach for Predicting Injectivity Decline during Waterflooding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuan, Hao; Nielsen, Sidsel Marie; Shapiro, Alexander

    Injectivity decline during sea waterflooding or produced water re-injection is widely observed in North Sea, Gulf of Mexico and Campos Basin fields. The formation damage occurs mainly due to the deposition of suspended solids around injectors and the build-up the external filter cakes in the well...... bores. The ability to predict injectivity decline accurately is of great importance for project designs and water management. A comprehensive model that incorporates a variety of factors influencing the process is desirable for the prediction. In this paper, a new comprehensive approach for predicting...... injectivity decline during water flooding is proposed. The deep bed filtration is described by novel stochastic random walk equations. The injectivity decline model takes into account the reservoir heterogeneity and the distribution of solid particles by sizes. It also accounts for the later formation...

  15. Relationship Between Landscape Character, UV Exposure, and Amphibian Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, C. M.; Brooks, P. D.; Corn, P. S.; Muths, E.; Campbell, D. H.; Diamond, S.; Tonnessen, K.

    2001-12-01

    Widespread reports of amphibian declines have been considered a warning of large-scale environmental degradation, yet the reasons for these declines remain unclear. This study suggests that exposure to ultraviolet radiation may act as an environmental stressor that affects population breeding success or susceptibility to disease. Ultraviolet radiation is attenuated by dissolved and particulate compounds in water, which may be of either terrestrial or aquatic origin. UV attenuation by dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is primarily due to compounds in the fulvic acid fraction, which originate in soil environments. These terrestrially-derived fulvic acids are transported to during hydrologic flushing events such as snowmelt and episodic precipitation and play an important role in controlling UV exposure in surface waters. As part of a previously published project, amphibian surveys were conducted at seventeen sites in Rocky Mountain National Park both during, and subsequent to, a three-year drought (1988 - 1990). During this period, ten sites lost one amphibian species, while only one site gained a previously unreported species. One possible explanation for these localized species losses is increased exposure to UV radiation, mediated by reduced terrestrial DOC inputs during dry periods. Several subsequent years of water chemistry data showed that the sites with documented species losses were characterized by a range of DOC concentrations, but tended to have a greater proportion of terrestrial DOC than sites that did not undergo species loss. This suggests that terrestrial inputs exert a strong control on DOC concentrations that may influence species success. We used physical environmental factors to develop a classification scheme for these sites. There are many physical factors that can influence terrestrial DOC inputs, including landscape position, geomorphology, soil type, and watershed vegetation. In addition, we considered the possible effects on internal aquatic

  16. The Decline of Traditional Banking Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Cornelia Piciu

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The decline of traditional banking activities raise the issue of efficiency of financial stability, in terms ofquantitative and qualitative aspects – the increasing danger of banking failures as well as of susceptibility due toincreased propensity of banking institutions to assume additional to risks either in the form of riskier loans offer orengaging in other "non-traditional" financial activities which give a promise for greater profitability, but also higherrisks. Non-traditional activities of banking as financial products dealers (financial derivatives, generate an increasingrisks and vulnerabilities in the form of moral hazard issues. That is the reason why and these activities should beregulated as well as are the traditional activities. Challenges posed by the decline of traditional banking activities istwofold: the stability of the banking system must be maintained, while the banking system needs to be restructured toachieve financial stability in the long run. One possible way is an appropriate regulatory framework to encourage atransition period of changing the structure of banking activity(reduction of traditional activities and expanding nontraditional activities to enable banking institutions to perform a deep methodic analysis of non traditional activities,oriented to the financial banking efficiency.

  17. The relationship of bilingualism to cognitive decline: The Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukadam, Naaheed; Jichi, Fatima; Green, David; Livingston, Gill

    2018-02-01

    We wished to clarify the link between bilingualism and cognitive decline, and examine whether improved executive function due to bilingualism may be a factor in preventing cognitive decline. We used the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing which collected data on 2087 participants aged over 65 over 20 years. We compared baseline demographics, health, and social characteristics between bilingual and non-bilingual participants. We used linear mixed models analysis to explore the effect of bilingualism on MMSE score over time and linear regression to explore the effect of bilingualism on baseline MMSE scores, controlling for pre-specified potential confounders. Bilingual participants had lower baseline MMSE scores than the non-bilingual population (mean difference = -2.3 points; 95% confidence intervals = 1.56-2.90). This was fully explained by education and National Adult Reading Test scores (17.4; standard deviation [SD] =7.7 versus 28.1; SD = 8.2) which also partly explained baseline executive function test scores differences. Bilingual and non-bilingual participants did not differ in MMSE decline over time (-0.33 points, P = 0.31) nor on baseline tests of executive function (-0.26, P = 0.051). In this cohort, education rather than bilingualism was a predictor of MMSE score, and being bilingual did not protect from cognitive decline. We conclude that bilingualism is complex, and when it is not the result of greater educational attainment, it does not always protect from cognitive decline. Neuroprotective effects of bilingualism over time may be attributable to the precise patterns of language use but not to bilingualism per se. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Differential diagnosis for cognitive decline in elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Om Prakash

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive decline has a spectrum of presentations, which manifest from normality as part of senility to the established form of various neurodegenerative illnesses causing dementia. Understanding these various differential diagnoses is of great clinical significance as they have different management and interventional strategies. The neuropsychological deficits which are identified should follow known neuropathological disease patterns that helps in distinguishing different types of cognitive impairment to established dementia. It is important to look at different cognitive impairment in elderly with core diagnostic sense to define severity, type of cognitive impairments, identifying patients need for accommodation or adaptation, associated risks, effectiveness of therapies and predict mortality. This would help clinicians to identify and plan management based on individual needs in cases with variable cognitive impairment.

  19. World oil prices flat to declining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    A forecast is presented of the likely trends in world oil prices over the short to medium term. A historical background is presented of the OPEC cartel and its role in influencing oil prices. The incentives and disincentives for OPEC to raise prices, and the tensions within the cartel are explored. Slower demand growth and the expansion of natural gas are expected to put downward pressure on oil prices, which are currently artificially high. The impacts of high taxes on development and exploration are examined, and it is shown that state ownership poses an obstacle to improved performance. Threats of price decline are expected to continue to lead to threats of hasty, or even violent action on the part of OPEC members, as happened in 1990. Privatization and tax codes designed to skim rent are positive trends

  20. Russia's defense spending and the economic decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Oxenstierna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to explore the development of Russian military spending in light of weak and negative growth of the Russian economy and to look at the reasons for the economic decline that has developed after the economic crisis in 2009 and is due to long-term internal structural factors that have existed since the mid-2000s. The confidence crisis resulting from Russia's aggression against Ukraine 2014, Western sanctions and falling oil prices has further aggravated these tendencies and the economy is now contracting. The main conclusions are that the share of the defense budget in GDP has risen substantially, but there is still a trade-off between defense and other public spending in the budget. Political reform would be necessary to implement market institutions and revive the economy.

  1. Genetic consequences of population decline in the European otter ( Lutra lutra ) : an assessment of microsatellite DNA variation in Danish otters from 1883 to 1993

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pertoldi, C.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Loeschcke, V.

    2001-01-01

    alleles, suggested that a drastic long-term population decline has taken place, which could have started more than 2000 years ago, possibly due to ancient anthropogenic pressure. Finally, assignment tests and pairwise F-ST values suggested weak but statistically significant genetic differentiation between......The European otter (Lutra lutra) was common in Denmark until the 1960s, but its present distribution encompasses only a minor part of the country. The aim of this study was to assess whether the recent population decline has resulted in loss of genetic variability and to gain further insight...

  2. Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging

  3. Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of

  4. Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik P. Van Dalen

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available European countries are experiencing population decline and the tacit assumption in most analyses is that the decline may have detrimental welfare effects. In this paper we use a survey among the population in the Netherlands to discover whether population decline is always met with fear. A number of results stand out: population size preferences differ by geographic proximity: at a global level the majority of respondents favors a (global population decline, but closer to home one supports a stationary population. Population decline is clearly not always met with fear: 31 percent would like the population to decline at the national level and they generally perceive decline to be accompanied by immaterial welfare gains (improvement environment as well as material welfare losses (tax increases, economic stagnation. In addition to these driving forces it appears that the attitude towards immigrants is a very strong determinant at all geographical levels: immigrants seem to be a stronger fear factor than population decline.

  5. Decline in breast cancer mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Njor, Sisse Helle; Schwartz, Walter; Blichert-Toft, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: When estimating the decline in breast cancer mortality attributable to screening, the challenge is to provide valid comparison groups and to distinguish the screening effect from other effects. In Funen, Denmark, multidisciplinary breast cancer management teams started before screening...... was introduced; both activities came later in the rest of Denmark. Because Denmark had national protocols for breast cancer treatment, but hardly any opportunistic screening, Funen formed a "natural experiment", providing valid comparison groups and enabling the separation of the effect of screening from other...... factors. METHODS: Using Poisson regression we compared the observed breast cancer mortality rate in Funen after implementation of screening with the expected rate without screening. The latter was estimated from breast cancer mortality in the rest of Denmark controlled for historical differences between...

  6. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    OpenAIRE

    Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

    2010-01-01

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined ...

  7. Altered Reproductive Function and Amphibian Declines

    OpenAIRE

    Gallipeau, Sherrie

    2014-01-01

    Agrochemical exposure is one of the factors that contributes to worldwide amphibian declines. Most studies that examine agrochemicals and amphibian declines focus on toxicity. However, declines are more likely caused by the sub-lethal effects of agrochemical exposure. Past emphases on the lethal effects of agrochemical exposure have overshadowed the contribution of decreased recruitment in amphibian declines. Additionally, studies that examine agrochemicals and reproductive function tend to f...

  8. A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of Injectivity Decline | Odeh ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Injectivity impairment due to invasion of solid suspensions has been studied by several investigators and some modelling approaches have also been reported. Worthy of note is the development of analytical models for internal and external filtration coupled with transition time concept for predicting the overall decline in ...

  9. Human due diligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harding, David; Rouse, Ted

    2007-04-01

    Most companies do a thorough job of financial due diligence when they acquire other companies. But all too often, deal makers simply ignore or underestimate the significance of people issues in mergers and acquisitions. The consequences are severe. Most obviously, there's a high degree of talent loss after a deal's announcement. To make matters worse, differences in decision-making styles lead to infighting; integration stalls; and productivity declines. The good news is that human due diligence can help companies avoid these problems. Done early enough, it helps acquirers decide whether to embrace or kill a deal and determine the price they are willing to pay. It also lays the groundwork for smooth integration. When acquirers have done their homework, they can uncover capability gaps, points of friction, and differences in decision making. Even more important, they can make the critical "people" decisions-who stays, who goes, who runs the combined business, what to do with the rank and file-at the time the deal is announced or shortly thereafter. Making such decisions within the first 30 days is critical to the success of a deal. Hostile situations clearly make things more difficult, but companies can and must still do a certain amount of human due diligence to reduce the inevitable fallout from the acquisition process and smooth the integration. This article details the steps involved in conducting human due diligence. The approach is structured around answering five basic questions: Who is the cultural acquirer? What kind of organization do you want? Will the two cultures mesh? Who are the people you most want to retain? And how will rank-and-file employees react to the deal? Unless an acquiring company has answered these questions to its satisfaction, the acquisition it is making will be very likely to end badly.

  10. The decline in Australian young male suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrell, Stephen; Page, Andrew N; Taylor, Richard J

    2007-02-01

    Since the late 1990s there has been a sharp downward trend in Australian young male suicide. It is possible that a major government youth suicide prevention initiative, the National Youth Suicide Prevention Strategy (NYSPS), implemented during 1995-1999 may have influenced the decline. In this article, we examine time trends in age- and means-specific male and female Australian suicide rates in relation to unemployment rates and the NYSPS. Based on Australian suicide data over the period 1966-2003, we assess secular changes in the 20-24 year male suicide to total (crude) male suicide rate ratio in relation to the NYSPS, using interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA), since this was previously found to be significantly associated with the 20-24 year male unemployment to total employment ratio. Results show that a dramatic reduction in Australian young male (aged 20-34 years) suicide has occurred since 1997-1998, declining from approximately 40 per 100,000 in 1997-1998 to approximately 20 per 100,000 in 2003. Most of the decline is due to a decrease in suicide by hanging and to a lesser extent from motor vehicle carbon monoxide and other gases. Further, the previously established strong secular association (lasting over 3 decades from 1966) between the rate ratio of 20-24 year male suicide to total (crude) male suicide, and the rate ratio of 20-24 year male unemployment to total unemployment, appears to have been disrupted. ARIMA modelling of the suicide ratio against the initiative indicates a highly significant statistical association between the NYSPS and the suicide ratio reduction but not between the NYSPS and the unemployment indicator trend, suggesting a break in the link between young male suicide and unemployment. The recent sudden turnaround in Australian young male suicide trends and its extent appears to preclude explanations centring on slow-moving social indices traditionally associated with suicide, or on possible cohort effects. This sudden decrease

  11. Subjective cognitive decline: The first clinical manifestation of Alzheimer's disease?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adalberto Studart Neto

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Background: Mild cognitive impairment is considered as the first clinical manifestation of Alzheimer's disease (AD, when the individual exhibits below performance on standardized neuropsychological tests. However, some subjects before having a lower performance on cognitive assessments already have a subjective memory complaint. Objective: A review about subjective cognitive decline, the association with AD biomarkers and risk of conversion to dementia. Methods: We performed a comprehensive non-systematic review on PubMed. The keywords used in the search were terms related to subjective cognitive decline. Results: Subjective cognitive decline is characterized by self-experience of deterioration in cognitive performance not detected objectively through formal neuropsychological testing. However, various terms and definitions have been used in the literature and the lack of a widely accepted concept hampers comparison of studies. Epidemiological data have shown that individuals with subjective cognitive decline are at increased risk of progression to AD dementia. In addition, there is evidence that this group has a higher prevalence of positive biomarkers for amyloidosis and neurodegeneration. However, Alzheimer's disease is not the only cause of subjective cognitive decline and various other conditions can be associated with subjective memory complaints, such as psychiatric disorders or normal aging. The features suggestive of a neurodegenerative disorder are: onset of decline within the last five years, age at onset above 60 years, associated concerns about decline and confirmation by an informant. Conclusion: These findings support the idea that subjective cognitive complaints may be an early clinical marker that precedes mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease.

  12. Increased planned delivery contributes to declining rates of pregnancy hypertension in Australia: a population-based record linkage study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christine L; Algert, Charles S; Morris, Jonathan M; Ford, Jane B

    2015-10-05

    Since the 1990s, pregnancy hypertension rates have declined in some countries, but not all. Increasing rates of early planned delivery (before the due date) have been hypothesised as the reason for the decline. The aim of this study was to explore whether early planned delivery can partly explain the declining pregnancy hypertension rates in Australia. Population-based record linkage study utilising linked birth and hospital records. A cohort of 1,076,122 deliveries in New South Wales, Australia, 2001-2012. Pregnancy hypertension (including gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia and eclampsia) was the main outcome; pre-eclampsia was a secondary outcome. From 2001 to 2012, pregnancy hypertension rates declined by 22%, from 9.9% to 7.7%, and pre-eclampsia by 27%, from 3.3% to 2.4% (trend prate was predicted to increase to 10.5%. Examination of annual gestational age distributions showed that pregnancy hypertension rates actually declined from 38 weeks gestation and were steepest from 41 weeks; at least 36% of the decrease could be attributed to planned deliveries. The risk factors for pregnancy hypertension were also risk factors for planned delivery. It appears that an unanticipated consequence of increasing early planned deliveries is a decline in the incidence of pregnancy hypertension. Women with risk factors for hypertension were relatively more likely to be selected for early delivery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  13. In search of millions of lost Starlings across Europe: The relation between monitoring, science and conservation in a declining species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heldbjerg, Henning; Fox, Anthony David

    The Starling (Sturnus vulgaris) is a widespread and common species, which is declining in large parts of its European range. We analysed and compared breeding population trends across Europe to investigate the causes of the declines. At the continental scale, the European population declined at a...

  14. Longitudinal Modeling of Functional Decline Associated with Pathologic Alzheimer's Disease in Older Persons without Cognitive Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dai; Schultz, Tim; Novak, Gerald P; Baker, Susan; Bennett, David A; Narayan, Vaibhav A

    2018-01-01

    Therapeutic research on Alzheimer's disease (AD) has moved to intercepting the disease at the preclinical phase. Most drugs in late development have focused on the amyloid hypothesis. To understand the magnitude of amyloid-related functional decline and to identify the functional domains sensitive to decline in a preclinical AD population. Data were from the Religious Orders Study and the Rush Memory and Aging Project. Cognitive decline was measured by a modified version of the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite. The trajectories of functional decline, as measured by the instrumental and basic activities of daily living, were longitudinally modeled in 484 participants without cognitive impairment at baseline and having both a final clinical and a postmortem neuropathology assessment of AD. Individuals with different final clinical diagnoses had different trajectories of cognitive and functional decline. Individuals with AD dementia, minor cognitive impairment, and no cognitive impairment had the most, intermediate, and least declines. While individuals with pathologic AD had significantly more cognitive decline over time than those without, the magnitude of difference in functional decline between these two groups was small. Functional domains such as handling finance and handling medications were more sensitive to decline. Demonstrating the functional benefit of an amyloid-targeting drug represents a significant challenge as elderly people experience functional decline due to a wide range of reasons with limited manifestation attributable to AD neuropathology. More sensitive functional scales focusing on the functional domains sensitive to decline in preclinical AD are needed.

  15. Declines in Sexual Frequency among American Adults, 1989-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twenge, Jean M; Sherman, Ryne A; Wells, Brooke E

    2017-11-01

    American adults had sex about nine fewer times per year in the early 2010s compared to the late 1990s in data from the nationally representative General Social Survey, N = 26,620, 1989-2014. This was partially due to the higher percentage of unpartnered individuals, who have sex less frequently on average. Sexual frequency declined among the partnered (married or living together) but stayed steady among the unpartnered, reducing the marital/partnered advantage for sexual frequency. Declines in sexual frequency were similar across gender, race, region, educational level, and work status and were largest among those in their 50s, those with school-age children, and those who did not watch pornography. In analyses separating the effects of age, time period, and cohort, the decline was primarily due to birth cohort (year of birth, also known as generation). With age and time period controlled, those born in the 1930s (Silent generation) had sex the most often, whereas those born in the 1990s (Millennials and iGen) had sex the least often. The decline was not linked to longer working hours or increased pornography use. Age had a strong effect on sexual frequency: Americans in their 20s had sex an average of about 80 times per year, compared to about 20 times per year for those in their 60s. The results suggest that Americans are having sex less frequently due to two primary factors: An increasing number of individuals without a steady or marital partner and a decline in sexual frequency among those with partners.

  16. Development and decline of upright gait stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco eIosa

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Upright gait is a peculiar characteristic of humans that requires the ability to manage upper body dynamic balance while walking, despite the perturbations that are generated by movements of the lower limbs. Most of the studies on upright gait stability have compared young adults and the elderly to determine the effects of aging. In other studies the comparison was between healthy subjects and patients to examine specific pathologies. Fewer researches have also investigated the development of upright gait stability in children.This review discusses these studies in order to provide an overview of this relevant aspect of human locomotion. A clear trend from development to decline of upright gait stability has been depicted across the entire lifespan, from toddlers at first steps to elderly. In old individuals, even if healthy, the deterioration of skeletal muscle, combined with sensorial and cognitive performance, reduces the ability to maintain an upright trunk during walking, increasing the instability and the risk of falls. Further, the pathological causes of altered development or of a sudden loss of gait stability, as well as the environmental influence are investigated. The last part of this review is focused on the control of upper body accelerations during walking, a particularly interesting topic for the recent development of low-cost wearable accelerometers.

  17. Neotropical Amphibian Declines Affect Stream Ecosystem Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connelly, S.; Pringle, C. M.; Bixby, R. J.; Whiles, M. R.; Lips, K. R.; Brenes, R.; Colon-Gaud, J. C.; Kilham, S.; Hunte-Brown, M.

    2005-05-01

    Global declines of amphibians are well documented, yet effects of these dramatic losses on ecosystem structure and function are poorly understood. As part of a larger collaborative project, we compared two upland Panamanian streams. Both streams are biologically and geologically similar; however, one stream (Fortuna) has recently experienced almost complete extirpation of stream-dwelling frogs, while the other (Cope) still has intact populations. We experimentally excluded tadpoles from localized areas in each stream. We then compared chlorophyll a, algal community composition, ash-free dry mass (AFDM), inorganic matter, and insect assemblages in control and exclusion areas. Additionally, we sampled the natural substrate of both streams monthly for chlorophyll a, algal community composition, AFDM, and inorganic matter. At Cope, chlorophyll a, AFDM, and inorganic matter were greater in areas where tadpoles were excluded than in their presence. Numbers of dominant algal species (e.g., Nupela praecipua and Eunotia siolii) were greater in the exclusion versus control treatments. Monthly sampling of natural substrate indicated higher chlorophyll a and AFDM at Cope compared to Fortuna. Our data suggest that stream-dwelling anuran larvae have significant impacts on algal communities. These results also have implications for predicting the relevance of short-term experimental manipulations to long-term, whole-stream processes.

  18. Evaluation of invasions and declines of submersed aquatic macrophytes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, P.A.; Barko, J.W.; Smith, C.S.

    1993-01-01

    During the past 60 yr, sightings of aquatic macrophyte species in geographic regions where they had previously not been found have occurred with increasing frequency, apparently due to both greater dispersal of the plants as a result of human activities as well as better documentation of plant distribution. Intercontinental invasions, such as Myriophyllum spicatum and Hydrilla into North America, Elodea canadensis into Europe and Elodea nuttallii, Egeria densa and Cabomba caroliniana into Japan, have generally been well documented. However, the spread of an exotic species across a continent after its initial introduction (e.g., Potamogeton crispus in North America) or the expansion of a species native to a continent into hitherto unexploited territory (e.g.,the expansion of the North American native Myriophyllum heterophyllum into New England) have received little attention. Natural declines in aquatic macrophyte communities have also received little scientific study although there are many accounts of macrophyte declines. The best-documented example comes from the marine literature where extensive declines of eelgrass (Zostera) occurred in the 1930s along the Atlantic coast due to a pathogenic marine slime mold (''wasting disease''). The aim of this workshop was to identify examples of invasions or natural declines of aquatic macrophyte species throughout the world and assess the importance of environmental factors in their control. Forty-five scientists and aquatic plant managers from ten countries participated in the workshop. Eleven of the participants contributed written evaluations of species invasions and declines in their geo-graphic region. These were distributed to registered participants prior to the meeting and served as the starting-point of workshop discussions. To address the topics raised in the working papers, the participants divided into four working groups to evaluate: 1. Environmental controls of species invasions. 2. Biotic controls of species

  19. Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

    2012-02-01

    Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little

  20. Technical Due Diligence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Per Anker; Varano, Mattia

    2011-01-01

    carried out for buyers or sellers involved in real estate transactions. It can also be part of mergers including real estate and other assets or part of facilities management outsourcing. This paper is based on a case study and an interview survey of companies involved in TDD consulting in Denmark......Technical Due Diligence (TDD) as an evaluation of the performance of constructed facilities has become an important new field of practice for consultants. Before the financial crisis started in autumn 2008 it represented the fastest growing activity in some consulting companies. TDD is mostly...... and Italy during 2009. The research identifies the current practice and compares it with the recommended practice in international guidelines. The current practice is very diverse and could in many cases be improved by a more structured approach and stricter adherence to international guidelines. However...

  1. A Declining Region: Provincial Renaissance Revisited (Case of Volgograd Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drozdova Yuliya

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes findings yielded by the empirical study performed in the framework of an RGNF grant entitled “Image of a region as a communicative strategy for the authorities and mass media”. The methods of study included expert survey and formal survey (N=1000, July-September 2013, studying the opinion of respondents who were either internal experts residing in the Volgograd region (N=20; May-September 2013 or external experts who reside outside the region but maintain stable ties with the representatives of state and municipal authorities, regional mass media and business. The findings indicate that the Volgograd region has fallen behind other modernized Russian regions, that young people tend to leave it, that a negative image of the region as a declining territory persists. Answers to the open question “What is unacceptable for you in the existing image of the Volgograd region?” revealed major problems determining the local context of a declining region, and those were issues associated with inefficient regional/municipal administration: “the condition of the roads”, “constant replacement of people in the administration”, “politics as a whole”, “a destitute region without a good manager”, “unemployment”, “countryside is dying off”, “indifference of the authorities”, “roads, housing and public utilities and the administration”, “the authorities are not responsible for the people”, “the authorities do not solve the problems of the city or its people”, “thieving”, “dishonest authorities”, “the region goes to rack and ruin, no kindergartens or jobs”, “one cannot even walk in the streets”, “corruption”, “a stagnant region with low pay”, “no perspectives in the future”, “the region is stagnating due to corruption among officials”. According to the local Census Bureau, the Volgograd region can be classified as a declining territory where the population decline

  2. The Decline of Violence is Surely a Good Thing

    OpenAIRE

    Bill Philips

    2013-01-01

    Despite the widespread belief that the world grows increasingly violent, Steven Pinker's 2011 volume The Better Angels of Our Nature convincingly argues that the opposite is true. Tracing the history of humanity from its origins to the present day, Pinker shows how violence has declined, and that strong, stable government is the principal reason for this happening. The book briefly touches on the way literature may play a part in the reduction of violence through the transmission of empathy –...

  3. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  4. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading, C J; Luiselli, L M; Akani, G C; Bonnet, X; Amori, G; Ballouard, J M; Filippi, E; Naulleau, G; Pearson, D; Rugiero, L

    2010-12-23

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.

  5. Recent widespread tree growth decline despite increasing atmospheric CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Lucas C R; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D

    2010-07-21

    The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO(2) and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9 degrees latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment--BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios.

  6. The birth rate decline in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robey, B

    1993-01-01

    Family planning programs historically have played an important role in providing information and counseling and supplying modern methods. Most programs are effective due to socioeconomic development and strong political support. Potential demand for services will be growing. This means that donor agencies must commit additional funding, and users must begin paying or paying more for contraceptives. Services and method choices need to be expanded, and quality of care needs to be improved. Three primary factors will impact on fertility decline: 1) the rate of social development, 2) the speed with which small family norms spread and contraception is adopted, and 3) the facility of private and public suppliers to meet contraceptive demand. Other factors influence reproductive decisions (women's roles and status, economic hardships or opportunities, religion, ethnicity, culture, and tradition). Contraceptive prevalence has increased from under 10% in the 1960s to 38% of all married, reproductive age women in the developing world, excluding China, which has contraceptive prevalence of 72%. Regional differences are wide. In Latin America, contraceptive use averages nearly 60% and ranges from over 50% in 10 countries and below 38% in Bolivia, Guatemala, and Haiti. Contraceptive prevalence is above average in Indonesia (50%), Sri Lanka (62%), and Thailand (68%) and just below average in Bangladesh (40%), India (45%), Philippines (34%), and Vietnam (53%). Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest prevalence, except for Zimbabwe (45%), Botswana (35%), and Kenya (27%). 80% of current users rely on modern methods. In most surveyed countries, 20-30% of married women have unmet demand. Fertility decline, unmet demand, and contraceptive use have all been affected by the diffusion of ideas about the use of family planning and the small family norm. Innovators are usually high status, educated women, who spread their views to other social groups or geographic areas. The spread can be rapid

  7. Drivers and moderators of business decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Pretorius

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Reports of business failure elicit various reactions, while research in this domain often appears to be limited by a lack of access to information about failure and by the negativity that surrounds it. Those who have experienced failure do not readily talk about it, or they disappear from the radar screen of researchers. Yet failure is preceded by decline which, when focused on strategically, can reduce eventual failures if early action is taken. The main purpose of this study is to develop a conceptual framework or typology of the drivers and moderators of business decline. Design/methodology/approach: After applying the "grounded theory" approach to the academic literature on decline and failure, a conceptual framework for the variables that drive and moderate business decline is proposed. Findings: The study proposes that decline has three core drivers, three peripheral drivers and four moderators. The core drivers identified are: resource munificence; leadership as origin; and causality (strategic versus operational origin of decline. The three peripheral drivers are: unique preconditions; continuous decisions impact; and extremes dichotomy. The study describes four moderators of the drivers: life cycle stage; stakeholder perspective; quantitative versus qualitative nature of signs and causes; and finally the age and size effects. Research limitations/implications: The proposed conceptual framework is based on literature only, although it has found support during discussions with practitioners. It is proposed to readers of this journal for scrutiny and validation. Practical implications: Strategists need to understand what drives decline in order to act timeously; practitioners who have an insight into the moderators with their impacts could make better decisions in response to decline in organisations and possibly avoid business failure. Originality/Value: Understanding business decline is still a huge theoretical challenge, which

  8. The decline of hysterectomy for benign disease.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Horgan, R P

    2012-01-31

    Hysterectomy is one of the most common gynaecological surgical procedures performed but there appears to be a decline in the performance of this procedure in Ireland in recent times. We set out to establish the extent of the decline of hysterectomy and to explore possible explanations. Data for hysterectomy for benign disease from Ireland was obtained from the Hospital In-Patient Enquiry Scheme (HIPE) section of the Economic and Social Research Institute for the years 1999 to 2006. The total number of hysterectomies performed for benign disease showed a consistent decline during this time. There was a 36% reduction in the number of abdominal hysterectomy procedures performed.

  9. Autopsy rates in the Netherlands: 35 years of decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blokker, Britt M; Weustink, Annick C; Hunink, M G Myriam; Oosterhuis, J Wolter

    2017-01-01

    Although the autopsy still is a valuable tool in health statistics, health care quality control, medical education, and biomedical research, autopsy rates have been declining worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine trends of overall, clinical and forensic autopsy rates among adults in the Netherlands over the last four decades, and trends per sex, age (groups), and hospital type. We performed a retrospective study covering 35 years of Dutch national death counts (1977-2011), the number of in-hospital deceased patients, the number of deaths due to external causes, and the proportion of autopsies performed in these populations. The effects of sex, age and hospital category were analysed by linear and logistic regression and differences were evaluated by chi-square tests. Overall autopsy rates declined by 0.3% per calendar year, clinical autopsy rates by 0.7% per calendar year (from 31.4% to 7.7%), and forensic autopsy rates did not decline. Per calendar year the fraction of in-hospital deceased patients decreased by 0.2%. Autopsy rates were highest among men and younger patients; clinical autopsy rates were highest for patients dying in academic hospitals. In the Netherlands clinical autopsy rates have rapidly declined while at the same time the fraction of in-hospital deaths decreased, both contributing to the overall reduced absolute number of autopsies performed. It is important to improve awareness among both clinicians and general practitioners of the significance of the clinical autopsy.

  10. Two-year decline in vision but not hearing is associated with memory decline in very old adults in a population-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anstey, K J; Luszcz, M A; Sanchez, L

    2001-01-01

    Recent cross-sectional research in cognitive aging has demonstrated a robust association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive performance in old age. However, the nature of the association is still unclear, particularly with respect to whether sensory and cognitive function are causally related. This study aimed to determine whether marked declines in performance on screening measures of either visual acuity or auditory thresholds have an effect on cognitive decline over 2 years. The sample from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing (n = 2,087) were assessed in 1992 and 1994 on measures of sensory and cognitive function as part of a larger clinical assessment. A quasi-experimental design involving comparison of extreme groups using repeated measures MANCOVA with age as a covariate was used. Group performance on measures of hearing, memory, verbal ability and processing speed declined significantly. Decline in visual acuity had a significant effect on memory decline, but not on decline in verbal ability or processing speed. Decline in hearing was not associated with decline in any cognitive domain. The common association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive function observed in cross-sectional studies appears to be disassociated in longitudinal studies. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel

  11. Ventral striatum activation to prosocial rewards predicts longitudinal declines in adolescent risk taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telzer, Eva H; Fuligni, Andrew J; Lieberman, Matthew D; Galván, Adriana

    2013-01-01

    Adolescence is a period of intensified emotions and an increase in motivated behaviors and passions. Evidence from developmental neuroscience suggests that this heightened emotionality occurs, in part, due to a peak in functional reactivity to rewarding stimuli, which renders adolescents more oriented toward reward-seeking behaviors. Most prior work has focused on how reward sensitivity may create vulnerabilities, leading to increases in risk taking. Here, we test whether heightened reward sensitivity may potentially be an asset for adolescents when engaged in prosocial activities. Thirty-two adolescents were followed over a one-year period to examine whether ventral striatum activation to prosocial rewards predicts decreases in risk taking over a year. Results show that heightened ventral striatum activation to prosocial stimuli relates to longitudinal declines in risk taking. Therefore, the very same neural region that has conferred vulnerability for adolescent risk taking may also be protective against risk taking. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Conifer Decline and Mortality in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.; Im, S.; Ranson, K.

    2015-12-01

    "Dark needle conifer" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica and Picea obovata) decline and mortality increase were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed causes and scale of Siberian pine and fir mortality in Altai-Sayan and Baikal Lake Regions and West Siberian Plane based on in situdata and remote sensing (QuickBird, Landsat, GRACE). Geographically, mortality began on the margins of the DNC range (i.e., within the forest-steppe and conifer-broadleaf ecotones) and on terrain features with maximal water stress risk (narrow-shaped hilltops, convex steep south facing slopes, shallow well-drained soils). Within ridges, mortality occurred mainly along mountain passes, where stands faced drying winds. Regularly mortality was observed to decrease with elevation increase with the exception of Baikal Lake Mountains, where it was minimal near the lake shore and increased with elevation (up to about 1000 m a.s.l.). Siberian pine and fir mortality followed a drying trend with consecutive droughts since the 1980s. Dendrochronology analysis showed that mortality was correlated with vapor pressure deficit increase, drought index, soil moisture decrease and occurrence of late frosts. In Baikal region Siberian pine mortality correlated with Baikal watershed meteorological variables. An impact of previous year climate conditions on the current growth was found (r2 = 0.6). Thus, water-stressed trees became sensitive to bark beetles and fungi impact (including Polygraphus proximus and Heterobasidion annosum). At present, an increase in mortality is observed within the majority of DNC range. Results obtained also showed a primary role of water stress in that phenomenon with a secondary role of bark beetles and fungi attacks. In future climate with increased drought severity and frequency Siberian pine and fir will partly disappear from its current range, and will be substituted by drought-tolerant species (e.g., Pinus silvestris, Larix sibirica).

  13. Brain Metastases Treatment Worsens Cognitive Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    In some patients with cancer that has spread to the brain, whole brain radiation following radiosurgery causes more severe cognitive decline and does not improve survival compared with radiosurgery alone, a new study has found.

  14. Predictors of combined cognitive and physical decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Atkinson, H.H.; Cesari, M.; Kritchevsky, S.B.; Penninx, B.W.J.H.; Fried, L.P.; Guralnik, J.M.; Williamson, J.D.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence and correlates of combined declines in cognitive and physical performance. DESIGN: Cohort study of community-dwelling older women with moderate to severe disability. SETTING: The community surrounding Baltimore, Maryland. PARTICIPANTS: Participants in the

  15. Decline and conservation of bumble bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulson, D; Lye, G C; Darvill, B

    2008-01-01

    Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes.

  16. Is racial prejudice declining in Britain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Robert

    2008-12-01

    This article employs two previously neglected indicators of racial prejudice from the British Social Attitudes surveys to examine the social distribution of prejudices against black and Asian Britons. Three hypotheses are proposed and tested: that racial prejudice is declining in Britain; that this decline is principally generational in nature; and that greater prejudice is shown towards more culturally distinct Asian minorities than black minorities. Strong evidence is found for the first two hypotheses, with evidence of an overall decline in prejudice and of a sharp decline in prejudices among generations who have grown up since mass black and Asian immigration began in the 1950s. Little evidence is found for the third hypothesis: British reactions towards black and Asian minorities are broadly similar suggesting racial differences may still be the main factor prompting white hostility to British minorities.

  17. The Decline in America's Reputation: Why

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2008-01-01

    .... ( We are all Americans now. ) Since then, polls conducted by the U.S. Government and respected private firms have revealed a precipitous decline in favorability toward the United States and its foreign policy...

  18. Understanding Amphibian Declines Through Geographic Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallant, Alisa

    2006-01-01

    Growing concern over worldwide amphibian declines warrants serious examination. Amphibians are important to the proper functioning of ecosystems and provide many direct benefits to humans in the form of pest and disease control, pharmaceutical compounds, and even food. Amphibians have permeable skin and rely on both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems during different seasons and stages of their lives. Their association with these ecosystems renders them likely to serve as sensitive indicators of environmental change. While much research on amphibian declines has centered on mysterious causes, or on causes that directly affect humans (global warming, chemical pollution, ultraviolet-B radiation), most declines are the result of habitat loss and habitat alteration. Improving our ability to characterize, model, and monitor the interactions between environmental variables and amphibian habitats is key to addressing amphibian conservation. In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) to address issues surrounding amphibian declines.

  19. The global financial crisis and neighborhood decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwiers, Merle; Bolt, Gideon; Van Ham, Maarten; Van Kempen, Ronald

    2016-01-01

    Neighborhood decline is a complex and multidimensional process. National and regional variations in economic and political structures (including varieties in national welfare state arrangements), combined with differences in neighborhood history, development, and population composition, make it

  20. The Management of Decline: An International Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altbach, Philip G.

    1984-01-01

    The responses of higher education institutions in the United States, England, Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, and the rest of Western Europe to declining enrollments, changing financial support, fiscal problems, and changes in the professoriate and academic careers are compared. (MSE)

  1. Bi-decadal groundwater level trends in a semi-arid south indian region: Declines, causes and management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajendra P. Sishodia

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Contrary to common perception of widespread groundwater declines only 22–36% of the wells showed statistically significant declines. The use of well depth during dry well periods may slightly underestimate the number of declining wells (by 1% and rate of decline. Increase in groundwater irrigated area combined with rainfall and power subsidy policy, were the main causative factors for the decline. Groundwater decline after implementation of free-electricity policy in 2004 confirmed the nexus between power subsidy and groundwater. These declines are likely to worsen due to future well drillings. Trends in other regions with similar hydro-geologic conditions need to be analyzed to verify groundwater declines and its linkages with power subsidy. Once established, reforms in power subsidy and well permit policy along with conversion to efficient micro–irrigation may be needed to maintain or enhance groundwater availability in the crystalline aquifer region of India (240 million ha.

  2. Human Population Decline in North America during the Younger Dryas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. G.; Goodyear, A. C.; Stafford, T. W., Jr.; Kennett, J.; West, A.

    2009-12-01

    dates. The decline at the YD onset was more than 50%, similar in magnitude to the decline in Clovis-Folsom point ratios. While calibration and sampling factors may affect the trends, this abrupt decline is large and requires explanation. SUMMARY: Even though correlation does not equate with causation, the coeval YD decline in both points and 14C dates appears linked to significant changes in climate and biota, as represented by the megafaunal extinction. While the causes of the YD remain controversial, a human population decline appears to have occurred, at least across parts of North America. Furthermore, the YD onset is associated with the abrupt replacement of Clovis by regional or subregional scale cultural traditions, potentially reflecting decreased range mobility and increased population isolation. Projectile point distributions and summed probability analyses, we argue, are potentially useful approaches for exploring demographic changes at regional scales.

  3. Involvement of an autotoxic compound in asparagus decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato-Noguchi, Hisashi; Nakamura, Keisuke; Okuda, Nobuyuki

    2018-03-19

    Asparagus (Asparagus officinalis L.) is a widely cultivated perennial veritable and can be harvested more than ten years. However, the crop quality and yield decline after a few year's cultivation, which is called "asparagus decline". Even though those asparagus plants were replaced with new young asparagus plants, the productivity and quality of the crop remain relatively low, which is known as a "asparagus replant problem". One of the possible reasons for "asparagus decline" and "asparagus replant problem" is thought to be autotoxicity of asparagus. However, the compounds involved in the autotoxicity is not clear. The objective of this study was therefore to determine the potential role of autotoxicity in the "asparagus decline" and "asparagus replant problem". An aqueous methanol extract of 10-year-asparagus-cultivated soils inhibited the growth of asparagus seedlings and other two test plants with concentration dependent manner. The result confirmed that the asparagus soils have autotoxic activity. The extract was then purified by several chromatographies with monitoring the inhibitory activity and a potent growth inhibitory substance causing the autotoxic effect was isolated. The chemical structures of the compound was determined by spectral data to be trans-cinnamic acid. trans-Cinnamic acid inhibited the growth of asparagus seedlings at concentrations greater than 10 μM. The concentrations required for 50% growth inhibition of asparagus (IC 50 ) were 24.1-41.6 μM. trans-Cinnamic acid accumulated 174 μM in the 10-year-asparagus-cultivated soils, which may be enough levels to cause the growth inhibition on asparagus considering its IC 50 value. Therefore, trans-cinnamic acid may contribute to the autotoxic effect of asparagus soils, and may be in part responsible for "asparagus decline" and "asparagus replant problem". Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  4. The Decline of Violence is Surely a Good Thing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bill Philips

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the widespread belief that the world grows increasingly violent, Steven Pinker's 2011 volume The Better Angels of Our Nature convincingly argues that the opposite is true. Tracing the history of humanity from its origins to the present day, Pinker shows how violence has declined, and that strong, stable government is the principal reason for this happening. The book briefly touches on the way literature may play a part in the reduction of violence through the transmission of empathy – the way in which stories about other people, even fictional people, teach us to comprehend more closely our fellow human beings. This article expands on Pinker's assertion and suggests that violence has also declined in literature, or become increasingly unacceptable to the point of rejection.

  5. Declining summer snowfall in the Arctic: causes, impacts and feedbacks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2012-06-15

    Recent changes in the Arctic hydrological cycle are explored using in situ observations and an improved atmospheric reanalysis data set, ERA-Interim. We document a pronounced decline in summer snowfall over the Arctic Ocean and Canadian Archipelago. The snowfall decline is diagnosed as being almost entirely caused by changes in precipitation form (snow turning to rain) with very little influence of decreases in total precipitation. The proportion of precipitation falling as snow has decreased as a result of lower-atmospheric warming. Statistically, over 99% of the summer snowfall decline is linked to Arctic warming over the past two decades. Based on the reanalysis snowfall data over the ice-covered Arctic Ocean, we derive an estimate for the amount of snow-covered ice. It is estimated that the area of snow-covered ice, and the proportion of sea ice covered by snow, have decreased significantly. We perform a series of sensitivity experiments in which inter-annual changes in snow-covered ice are either unaccounted for, or are parameterized. In the parameterized case, the loss of snow-on-ice results in a substantial decrease in the surface albedo over the Arctic Ocean, that is of comparable magnitude to the decrease in albedo due to the decline in sea ice cover. Accordingly, the solar input to the Arctic Ocean is increased, causing additional surface ice melt. We conclude that the decline in summer snowfall has likely contributed to the thinning of sea ice over recent decades. The results presented provide support for the existence of a positive feedback in association with warming-induced reductions in summer snowfall. (orig.)

  6. Declining soil Crustacea in a World Heritage Site caused by land nemertean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinobe, Shotaro; Uchida, Shota; Mori, Hideaki; Okochi, Isamu; Chiba, Satoshi

    2017-09-29

    Invasive non-native species are of great concern throughout the world. Potential severity of the impacts of non-native species is assessed for effective conservation managements. However, such risk assessment is often difficult, and underestimating possible harm can cause substantial issues. Here, we document catastrophic decline of a soil ecosystem in the Ogasawara Islands, a UNESCO World Heritage site, due to predation by non-native land nemertine Geonemertes pelaensis of which harm has been previously unnoticed. This nemertine is widely distributed in tropical regions, and no study has shown that it feeds on arthropods. However, we experimentally confirmed that G. pelaensis predates various arthropod groups. Soil fauna of Ogasawara was originally dominated by isopods and amphipods, but our surveys in the southern parts of Hahajima Island showed that these became extremely scarce in the areas invaded by G. pelaensis. Carnivorous arthropods decreased by indirect effects of its predation. Radical decline of soil arthropods since the 1980s on Chichijima Island was also caused by G. pelaensis and was first recorded in 1981. Thus, the soil ecosystem was already seriously damaged in Ogasawara by the nemertine. The present findings raise an issue and limitation in recognizing threats of non-native species.

  7. Can individual and social patterns of resource use buffer animal populations against resource decline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam C Banks

    Full Text Available Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing, as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater's possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1:1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species' biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance.

  8. The Supercritical Pile Gamma-Ray Burst Model: The GRB Afterglow Steep Decline and Plateau Phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultana, Joseph; Kazanas, D.; Mastichiadis, A.

    2013-01-01

    We present a process that accounts for the steep decline and plateau phase of the Swift X-Ray Telescope (XRT) light curves, vexing features of gamma-ray burst (GRB) phenomenology. This process is an integral part of the "supercritical pile" GRB model, proposed a few years ago to account for the conversion of the GRB kinetic energy into radiation with a spectral peak at E(sub pk) is approx. m(sub e)C(exp 2). We compute the evolution of the relativistic blast wave (RBW) Lorentz factor Gamma to show that the radiation-reaction force due to the GRB emission can produce an abrupt, small (approx. 25%) decrease in Gamma at a radius that is smaller (depending on conditions) than the deceleration radius R(sub D). Because of this reduction, the kinematic criticality criterion of the "supercritical pile" is no longer fulfilled. Transfer of the proton energy into electrons ceases and the GRB enters abruptly the afterglow phase at a luminosity smaller by approx. m(sub p)/m(sub e) than that of the prompt emission. If the radius at which this slow-down occurs is significantly smaller than R(sub D), the RBW internal energy continues to drive the RBW expansion at a constant (new) Gamma and its X-ray luminosity remains constant until R(sub D) is reached, at which point it resumes its more conventional decay, thereby completing the "unexpected" XRT light curve phase. If this transition occurs at R is approx. equal to R(sub D), the steep decline is followed by a flux decrease instead of a "plateau," consistent with the conventional afterglow declines. Besides providing an account of these peculiarities, the model suggests that the afterglow phase may in fact begin before the RBW reaches R is approx. equal to R(sub D), thus providing novel insights into GRB phenomenology.

  9. Family planning and fertility decline: a global overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabah, L

    1977-01-01

    Family planning and development policy concerns are not incompatible. The emphasis on development policies at the 1974 World Population Conference at Bucharest did not mean that world governments had lost interest in the population and family planning issue. Although worldwide attitudes toward family planning have become more and more favorable, this has not yet meant great impact on world demographic trends. The "inertia factor," i.e., the effects of high birthrates in the previous generation, will camouflage declining birthrates for some time to come. The trend of fertility reduction which was perceptible only among small populations a few years ago is also becoming manifest in larger Third World countries. Mortality rate declines have slowed down but there is no rising mortality due to starvation in any country. At present, food demand exceeds availability for 80% of the Third World population. It is predicted that the food deficit will increase 70% by the year 2000.

  10. Actual state of plant decline phenomena due to acid rain and others

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakane, Kaneyuki

    1992-01-01

    The withering of pine trees in large number became remarkable around 1960, and though efforts have been exerted by scattering insecticide and removing withered trees, it is not yet stopped. Recently, as the cause of the withering of pine trees, the deterioration of the environment of pine tree growth, particularly the effect of atmospheric pollution, has been pointed out. In this study, the relation of the withering of pine trees to acid rain, fog and dew was examined. Pine trees are widely distributed in Hiroshima Prefecture in more than 40% of forest areas. The withering of pine trees tends to expand along new expressways. The correlation of the distribution of pine tree withering with atmospheric pollution utilizing remote sensing technique, the vitality of pine leaves, the acidity and the amount of adhering acid fallout on pine leaves, the acidity of rainwater, rain in forests, water infiltrated in soil and so on are reported. The pine trees in the coastal area of Seto Inland Sea wither, and those in inland area are relatively sound, therefore, atmospheric pollution is dominant in the withering of pine trees. (K.I.)

  11. Nearly 800,000 deaths prevented due to declines in smoking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twentieth-century tobacco control programs and policies were responsible for preventing more than 795,000 lung cancer deaths in the United States from 1975 through 2000. If all cigarette smoking in this country had ceased following the release of the firs

  12. The Decline of Soil Infiltration Capacity Due To High Elevation Groundwater

    OpenAIRE

    Isri Ronald Mangangka

    2008-01-01

    Infiltration capacity of soil mainly depends on two factors; the particle size and the moisture content of the soil. Groundwater increases the soil moisture, not only below the water table but also within the capillary zone, above the water table. Field experiment in a high groundwater area was conducted to understand the relationship among the groundwater, soil moisture and infiltration capacity. Using a single ring infiltrometer, the effect of groundwater in the infiltration rate was observ...

  13. Decline in snail abundance due to soil acidification causes eggshell defects in forest passerines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graveland, J; vanderWal, R

    On poor soils in the Netherlands an increasing number of great tits, Parus major, and of other forest passerines produce eggs with defective shells and have low reproductive success as a result of calcium deficiency. A similar increase in eggshell defects has been observed in Germany and Sweden.

  14. Decline in snail abundance due to soil acidification causes eggshell defects in forest passerines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graveland, J.; Van der Wal, R.

    1996-01-01

    On poor soils in the Netherlands an increasing number of great tits, Parus major, and of other forest passerines produce eggs with defective shells and have low reproductive success as a result of calcium deficiency. A similar increase in eggshell defects has been observed in Germany and Sweden.

  15. Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

    2007-05-15

    Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

  16. Periodontitis and Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Ide

    Full Text Available Periodontitis is common in the elderly and may become more common in Alzheimer's disease because of a reduced ability to take care of oral hygiene as the disease progresses. Elevated antibodies to periodontal bacteria are associated with an increased systemic pro-inflammatory state. Elsewhere raised serum pro-inflammatory cytokines have been associated with an increased rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We hypothesized that periodontitis would be associated with increased dementia severity and a more rapid cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We aimed to determine if periodontitis in Alzheimer's disease is associated with both increased dementia severity and cognitive decline, and an increased systemic pro inflammatory state. In a six month observational cohort study 60 community dwelling participants with mild to moderate Alzheimer's Disease were cognitively assessed and a blood sample taken for systemic inflammatory markers. Dental health was assessed by a dental hygienist, blind to cognitive outcomes. All assessments were repeated at six months. The presence of periodontitis at baseline was not related to baseline cognitive state but was associated with a six fold increase in the rate of cognitive decline as assessed by the ADAS-cog over a six month follow up period. Periodontitis at baseline was associated with a relative increase in the pro-inflammatory state over the six month follow up period. Our data showed that periodontitis is associated with an increase in cognitive decline in Alzheimer's Disease, independent to baseline cognitive state, which may be mediated through effects on systemic inflammation.

  17. Computational estimation of decline in sweating in the elderly from measured body temperatures and sweating for passive heat exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirata, Akimasa; Nomura, Tomoki; Laakso, Ilkka

    2012-01-01

    Several studies reported the difference in heat tolerance between younger and older adults, which may be attributable to the decline in the sweating rate. One of the studies suggested a hypothesis that the dominant factor causing the decline in sweating was the decline in thermal sensitivity due to a weaker signal from the periphery to the regulatory centres. However, no quantitative investigation of the skin temperature threshold for activating the sweating has been conducted in previous studies. In this study, we developed a computational code to simulate the time evolution of the temperature variation and sweating in realistic human models under heat exposure, in part by comparing the computational results with measured data from younger and older adults. Based on our computational results, the difference in the threshold temperatures for activating the thermophysiological response, especially for sweating, is examined between older and younger adults. The threshold for activating sweating in older individuals was found to be about 1.5 °C higher than that in younger individuals. However, our computation did not suggest that it was possible to evaluate the central alteration with ageing by comparing the computation with the measurements for passive heat exposure, since the sweating rate is marginally affected by core temperature elevation at least for the scenarios considered here. The computational technique developed herein is useful for understanding the thermophysiological response of older individuals from measured data. (note)

  18. Kinship and the decline of fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y

    1996-01-01

    China's family planning and population control policies, together with the move toward a more market-oriented economy since the 1980s, have led to significant change in people's reproductive values and behavior and a substantial decline in fertility. Traditional kinship in China, its terminology, and the impact of fertility decline on kinship in China and Chinese society are discussed. The decline in fertility is affecting or will affect China's kinship system, the corresponding pattern of terminology, and the social structure. In the more market-oriented economy which has been developing in China, the simplification of the kinship system will help change the structure of Chinese society and weaken the traditional patriarchal culture. A more individualized, contractualized social structure and relationships will result.

  19. Declining sustained virological response in hepatitis c

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batool, U.; Qureshi, S.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To determine the response of treatment with standard interferon and Ribazole in treatment naive hepatitis C infected patients, with different grades of activity. Design: A quasi-experimental study. Place and Duration of Study: This study was carried out at the Department of Medicine, KRL General Hospital, Islamabad, from January 2001 to September 2004. Patients and Methods: A total of 300 patients were enrolled. All patients were anti-HCV positive confirmed by device method, PCR positive and had 3a genotype. A specially-designed proforma containing the patient profile, family transmission, and baseline laboratory values was filled. All patients were treated according to a set protocol of Interferon plus ribavirin therapy (IFN alpha 2a, 3MU t.i.w 24 weeks plus ribavirin 1000 to 1200 mg/day) for six months. Chi-square tests were used to analyze the data. Primary end point was a sustained virological response (SVR) that is response assessed after six months of completion of treatment. Results: Over a period of four years response rates to standard Interferon plus Ribazole therapy were studied. Out of the total 300 patients data was available for 161 patients as 60 patients were excluded and 79 patients are currently under treatment. Treatment was stopped in 3 patients due to serious side effects. In the 161 patients, 135 (83.8%), achieved response at the end of treatment at six months; End of Treatment Complete Response (EOTCR); and 26 (16.14%) were non-responders (NR). Out of the complete responders, 68 patients had been followed completely up to six months after the treatment to asses Sustained Viral Response (SVR) defined as undetectable HCV RNA in serum at the end of six months post treatment follow-up. Sustained viral response was seen in 46 patients Le. 68% ( CI: 57-79%) and 22(32.3%) were relapsers (those who developed recurrence of viremia after having achieved eradication at the end of six months treatment). Response rates are co-related with

  20. Local bumble bee decline linked to recovery of honey bees, drought effects on floral resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Diane M

    2016-10-01

    Time series of abundances are critical for understanding how abiotic factors and species interactions affect population dynamics, but are rarely linked with experiments and also scarce for bee pollinators. This gap is important given concerns about declines in some bee species. I monitored honey bee (Apis mellifera) and bumble bee (Bombus spp.) foragers in coastal California from 1999, when feral A. mellifera populations were low due to Varroa destructor, until 2014. Apis mellifera increased substantially, except between 2006 and 2011, coinciding with declines in managed populations. Increases in A. mellifera strongly correlated with declines in Bombus and reduced diet overlap between them, suggesting resource competition consistent with past experimental results. Lower Bombus numbers also correlated with diminished floral resources. Declines in floral abundances were associated with drought and reduced spring rainfall. These results illustrate how competition with an introduced species may interact with climate to drive local decline of native pollinators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  1. Cognitive decline impairs financial and health literacy among community-based older persons without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Wilson, Robert S; Segawa, Eisuke; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

    2013-09-01

    Literacy is an important determinant of health and well-being across the life span but is critical in aging, when many influential health and financial decisions are made. Prior studies suggest that older persons exhibit lower literacy than younger persons, particularly in the domains of financial and health literacy, but the reasons why remain unknown. The objectives of this study were to: (a) examine pathways linking diverse resources (i.e., education, word knowledge, cognitive function, and decision making style) to health and financial literacy among older persons and determine the extent to which the relation of age with literacy represents a direct effect versus an indirect effect due to decrements in specific cognitive functions (i.e., executive functions and episodic memory); and (b) test the hypothesis that declines in executive function and episodic memory are associated with lower literacy among older persons without dementia. Six-hundred and forty-five community-based older persons without dementia underwent detailed assessments of diverse resources, including education, word knowledge, cognitive function (i.e., executive function, episodic memory) and decision making style (i.e., risk aversion), and completed a measure of literacy that included items similar to those used in the Health and Retirement Study, such as numeracy, financial concepts such as compound inflation and knowledge of stocks and bonds, and important health concepts such as understanding of drug risk and Medicare Part D. Path analysis revealed a strong effect of age on literacy, with about half of the effect of age on literacy due to decrements in executive functions and episodic memory. In addition, executive function had an indirect effect on literacy via decision making style (i.e., risk aversion), and education and word knowledge had independent effects on literacy. Finally, among (n = 447) persons with repeated cognitive assessments available for up to 14 years, regression

  2. Theoretical explanations of the rapid fertility decline in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C

    1986-07-01

    A 1982 population census recorded China's fertility rate in 1982 at 2.6; recent statistics of China's State Statistics Bureau record China's 1984 birth rate at 17 per 1000 and the total fertility rate at 1.94. Wu Cangping asserts that this world-recognized rapid fertility decline is not due to any compulsory governmental restrictions on fertility, but to the people's willingness to control fertility voluntarily. He cites a number of socioeconomic factors contributing to this voluntary decline in China's birth rates: 1) change of family function; 2) decline of mortality, particularly infant mortality; 3) improvement in the educational level; 4) improvement in women's social status, especially increased employment; 5) better social security services for the elderly; 6) the preference for modern ways of production and life; and 7) the availability of information on population and birth control. He attributes these factors to the socialist system with its nationalized production, centralized planning of the national economy, and the even distribution system which prevents polarization of earning. In addition, reforms have been carried out in all aspects of social life and recent advances have been made in science and technology. All of these factors have resulted in a more rapid fertility transition in China as compared to that of developed countries in their past and that of developing countries at present.

  3. The Paradigm of Decline-Metamorphosis-Rebirth in Fine Arts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tine Germ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The triad of decline-metamorphosis-rebirth constantly reappears in the history of civilisation, it is current in all historical periods and cultural environments, in different areas and the most diverse contexts. Its manifestations are countless and the same is true of its interpretations. They are especially frequent in the area of art, because the evolutionary model, grounded in the idea of cyclic development comes very handy for explanations and illustrations which seek to present complicated things in a simple and clear way. The history of art, mainly in the 19th century, advocated a tripartite development of art which seeks greater perfection and maturity and reaches its peak just to be then inevitably followed by a decline in artistic originality and power. Already for some time now the evolutionary model has been shown too ineffective in addressing scholarly questions, especially due to oversimplification and a priori classification of subject matter which cannot possibly be classified. The perception that the art of the Early Renaissance was a preliminary period for more mature and accomplished achievements of High Renaissance which at some point began to lose its drive and went into decline either by repeating outmoded forms or their decomposition, is not only naive, but simply wrong and represents a misunderstanding of the essence of art. In much the same way it would be equally wrong to label in advance the early works of a certain artist as not-mature-yet or possessing less artistic authenticity.

  4. Obesity leads to declines in motor skills across childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, J; East, P; Blanco, E; Sim, E Kang; Castillo, M; Lozoff, B; Gahagan, S

    2016-05-01

    Poor motor skills have been consistently linked with a higher body weight in childhood, but the causal direction of this association is not fully understood. This study investigated the temporal ordering between children's motor skills and weight status at 5 and 10 years. Participants were 668 children (54% male) who were studied from infancy as part of an iron deficiency anaemia preventive trial and follow-up study in Santiago, Chile. All were healthy, full-term and weighing 3 kg or more at birth. Cross-lagged panel modelling was conducted to understand the temporal precedence between children's weight status and motor proficiency. Analyses also examined differences in gross and fine motor skills among healthy weight, overweight, and obese children. A higher BMI at 5 years contributed to declines in motor proficiency from 5 to 10 years. There was no support for the reverse, that is, poor motor skills at 5 years did not predict increases in relative weight from 5 to 10 years. Obesity at 5 years also predicted declines in motor proficiency. When compared with normal weight children, obese children had significantly poorer total and gross motor skills at both 5 and 10 years. Overweight children had poorer total and gross motor skills at 10 years only. The differences in total and gross motor skills among normal weight, overweight and obese children appear to increase with age. There were small differences in fine motor skill between obese and non-obese children at 5 years only. Obesity preceded declines in motor skills and not the reverse. Study findings suggest that early childhood obesity intervention efforts might help prevent declines in motor proficiency that, in turn, may positively impact children's physical activity and overall fitness levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Why Employee Motivation Has Declined in America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Philip C.

    1982-01-01

    Examines possible reasons for declining employee motivation: greater instability and diversity of values; more guaranteed rewards; inability of rewards to satisfy emerging needs; disappearing work ethic; reduced costs of failure; rising income and progressive taxation; more group production and problem solving; decreased employee loyalty; less…

  6. Understanding spatial differentiation in urban decline levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekveld, J.J.

    2014-01-01

    The economic and demographic changes currently manifest in many Western cities—referred to as urban decline or urban shrinkage—are receiving increased attention in public and academic debates. Although the general processes driving these changes have been identified, such processes cannot explain

  7. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  8. Disease management strategy for macadamia quick decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trees infected with Macadamia Quick Decline (MQD) exhibit excessive sap bleeding from the trunk, frass from ambrosia beetle feeding, orange fruiting bodies of the fungus Nectria rugulosa and yellowing and browning of the leaves within the tree canopy. MQD threatens commercial and residential product...

  9. Exploring the Global Decline of Music Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aróstegui, José Luis

    2016-01-01

    This article seeks to explain the disjuncture between the decline of music education in schools and the importance music has in popular youth culture and in creativity within the new knowledge economy. The data discussed in this article have been derived from analyses of major documents on curriculum reform as well as e-mail responses from music…

  10. Declining national park visitation: An economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas H. Stevens; Thomas A. More; Marla. Markowski-Lindsay

    2014-01-01

    Visitation to the major nature-based national parks has been declining. This paper specifies an econometric model that estimates the relative impact of consumer incomes, travel costs, entry fees and other factors on per capita attendance from 1993 to 2010. Results suggest that entrance fees have had a statistically significant but small impact on per capita attendance...

  11. Conflict Management in Declining School Districts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, William Lowe; Wheaton, Dennis R.

    1983-01-01

    Professional literature about managing conflicts associated with declining enrollments indicates the existing tension in this area. A research study shows that, while upper-middle class districts may succeed using a rational approach to decision making, lower class districts, for various reasons, may not. Special problems of urban districts are…

  12. Why Do Patients with COPD Decline Rehabilitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathar, Helle; Fastholm, Pernille; Hansen, Ida Rode

    2016-01-01

    AIM: This paper aimed to suggest possible answers to the question: Why do patients with COPD decline pulmonary rehabilitation (PR)? METHOD: The study is a metasynthesis inspired by Noblit of the existing qualitative research on the area. The data were collected during 2014. Six studies were found...

  13. The Decline of Literature: A Public Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albalawi, Mohammed

    2015-01-01

    After centuries of dominance, literature has not been in a robust health for the last few decades. Several scholars have addressed the decline of literature in a number of books and articles attributing it to institutional and economic reasons. However, a major factor has not been taken into account. It is the larger audience who receives and…

  14. The German social democratic party (SPD) and the debate on the fertility decline in the German Empire (1870~1918).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mun, Soo-Hyun

    2011-12-31

    servitude for anyone who had an abortion or people who helped to practice it, Paragraph 184.3 of the civil code was enacted in order to outlaw the advertising, display, and publicizing of contraceptives with an 'indecent' intention, although selling or manufacturing contraceptives was not forbidden. Such a punitive approach was especially preferred by the government and conservative parties because it was easy to implement and "cheap" in comparison with the comprehensive social welfare program. What made the SPD different from other conservative parties was the fact that the SPD opposed the government's attempt to prohibit contraception by means of strengthening a penal code. According to the SPD, it was not only morally unacceptable, but also technically impossible for the government to intervene in family limitation. Moreover, politicians from the SPD criticized that such a punitive policy targeted the working class because the upper echelon of the society could easily evade the ban on contraceptives. However, the SPD did not proceed to draft comprehensive social welfare measures in order to fight the fertility decline. The miserable condition of working class women remained as an invisible social phenomenon even within the SPD. The German women who could not find the proper means to practice contraception were driven to have abortions. Annually, hundreds of the women were accused of practicing abortion and imprisoned. In sum, German society ran about in confusion and did not know how to properly respond to the unprecedented decline in fertility. By defining the fertility decline just as a social disease due to moral decay and influence of socialism, German society lost a chance to rationalize itself. Given that women, the main actors, had no way to take part in the debate over this issue, it is not surprising that German society fought against the symptom of the disease, not against its root.

  15. Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

    1978-10-01

    This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

  16. Possible impacts of forest decline on the protection functions of forests in the Bavarian Alps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suda, M

    1989-01-01

    In context with the forest decline phenomenon the question arises on how the protection function of forests will be affected and how possible impacts can be evaluated. First, a solution model based on a feedback-circle system is presented, which allows to assess possible impacts of forest decline on massmovements. The application of this approach to the avalanche and flooding phenomena is presented and demonstrated by model calculations for different examples in the country of Traunstein/Bavaria Alps. Finally, a model is presented which gives an answer to the question, what impacts on the tourism industry are possible due to forest decline and how these influences can be evaluated.

  17. The decline of cisco Coregonus artedi at its southern range extent: Stock biology and management implications

    OpenAIRE

    Honsey, Andrew E.

    2014-01-01

    The cisco Coregonus artedi is distributed throughout northern North America and is relegated to coldwater, oligotrophic systems. Populations of cisco located at the species' southern range extent, including northern Indiana and southern Michigan, have drastically declined over the past century, seemingly due to a combination of climate warming and exacerbation of hypolimnetic hypoxic conditions via intensive land-use and resulting increases in nutrient loading. Apart from their decline, infor...

  18. Macro-Invertebrate Decline in Surface Water Polluted with Imidacloprid : A Rebuttal and Some New Analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vijver, M.G.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Imidacloprid, the largest selling insecticide in the world, has received particular attention from scientists, policymakers and industries due to its potential toxicity to bees and aquatic organisms. The decline of aquatic macro-invertebrates due to imidacloprid concentrations in the Dutch surface

  19. Macro-Invertebrate Decline in surface water polluted with Imidacloprid: A rebuttal and soome new analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vijver, M.G.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Imidacloprid, the largest selling insecticide in the world, has received particular attention from scientists, policymakers and industries due to its potential toxicity to bees and aquatic organisms. The decline of aquatic macro-invertebrates due to imidacloprid concentrations in the Dutch surface

  20. Siberian Pine Decline and Mortality in Southern Siberian Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V. I.; Im, S. T.; Oskorbin, P. A.; Petrov, I. A.; Ranson, K. J.

    2013-01-01

    The causes and resulting spatial patterns of Siberian pine mortality in eastern Kuznetzky Alatau Mountains, Siberia were analyzed based on satellite (Landsat, MODIS) and dendrochronology data. Climate variables studied included temperature, precipitation and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index. Landsat data analysis showed that stand mortality was first detected in the year 2006 at an elevation of 650 m, and extended up to 900 m by the year 2012. Mortality was accompanied by a decrease in MODIS derived vegetation index (EVI).. The area of dead stands and the upper mortality line were correlated with increased drought. The uphill margin of mortality was limited by elevational precipitation gradients. Dead stands (i.e., >75% tree mortality) were located mainly on southern slopes. With respect to slope, mortality was observed within a 7 deg - 20 deg range with greatest mortality occurring on convex terrain. Tree radial incrementmeasurements correlate and were synchronous with SPEI (r sq = 0.37, r(sub s) = 80). Increasing synchrony between tree ring growth and SPEI indicates that drought has reduced the ecological niche of Siberian pine. The results also showed the primary role of drought stress on Siberian pine mortality. A secondary role may be played by bark beetles and root fungi attacks. The observed Siberian pine mortality is part of a broader phenomenon of "dark needle conifers" (DNC, i.e., Siberian pine, fir and spruce) decline and mortality in European Russia, Siberia, and the Russian Far East. All locations of DNC decline coincided with areas of observed drought increase. The results obtained are one of the first observations of drought-induced decline and mortality of DNC at the southern border of boreal forests. Meanwhile if model projections of increased aridity are correct DNC, within the southern part of its range may be replaced by drought-resistant Pinus silvestris and Larix sibirica.

  1. Characterization of part of the toxic effects due to alpha irradiation and to the physico-chemical properties of some actinides. An in vitro study on the alveolar macrophage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lizon, Celine

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this work was to characterize the specific effects due to radiotoxicity of α irradiation and the chemical toxicity of actinides. This was performed on alveolar macrophages extracted from rats and primates by pulmonary lavage. This was done by an in vitro study using either α irradiation from electrodeposited sources, or soluble actinides and lanthanides added to the culture medium. Necrosis and apoptosis induction were quantified after vital staining. For each treatment, cells were studied 1 or 7 days after plating. After either α irradiation or exposure to elements, the main route of death induced was apoptosis. After α irradiation, alveolar macrophages are very radioresistant cells. The observed D0 was between 30 and 100 Gy, depending on the species studied and the time in culture at exposure. In fact, alveolar macrophages irradiated after 1 week in culture have show less radioresistance than those treated after 1 day. The chemical toxicity of Uranium and Neptunium was independent both of time in culture at exposure and the animal species. The threshold we observed were respectively at 5 10 -4 and 3 10 -6 M. Moreover, within the concentrations studied, Thorium have not shown any toxicity towards alveolar macrophages. 1 day after plating macrophages, lanthanides exerts a higher chemical toxicity than actinides (threshold : 5 10 -6 M, Gadolinium, 5 10 -5 M, Cerium). These toxicities decreases more than 10 times after exposure 7 days after plating or for primates cells. This phenomenon seems to be due to cell harvesting and/or to cell adaptation to culture. Preliminary results show an impairment of cytokines production, which could be specific of the toxic studied. This was observed at concentrations which appeared non toxic as regards to apoptosis induction. The use of primates alveolar macrophages allow us to extrapolate some of the obtained results to Human. (author) [fr

  2. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline

    KAUST Repository

    Vignaud, Thomas M.

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world\\'s largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignaud, Thomas M; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Leblois, Raphael; Meekan, Mark G; Vázquez-Juárez, Ricardo; Ramírez-Macías, Dení; Pierce, Simon J; Rowat, David; Berumen, Michael L; Beeravolu, Champak; Baksay, Sandra; Planes, Serge

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world's largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. The oil market in the 1980s -- a decade of decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shojai, S.; Katz, B.S.

    1992-01-01

    Part 1 of this volume presents a profile of the economic dislocations and hardships that resulted from the breakup of OPEC and non-OPEC nation oil exporters. The economies and economic plans of these nations were buffeted by the oil price decline. Slowed foreign exchange receipts, declining terms of trade, and fluctuating exchange rates all mitigated against oil suppliers. Part 2 investigates a range of oil importer responses to the economic ramifications of rising (1970s) and declining (1980s) oil prices. While the oil-importing Western nations adjusted to and benefited from the declining oil prices and oil suppliers bore the cost, there were also disparate economic effects on the developing world. Part 3 investigates the oil price decline fallout. The experiences of the 1980s permit an extended analysis of market conditions resulting from changes in the price of oil. Part 4 attempts to come to grips with the impact of price changes and future developments in the international world oil market

  5. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Samantha J; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Jones, Carl G; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography, but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall) and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture, it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will

  6. The decline of North American freshwater fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Jelks, Howard L.; Burkhead, Noel M.

    2009-01-01

    North America has a broad array of freshwater ecosystems because of the continent's complex geography and geological history. Within a multitude of habitats—that include streams, large rivers, natural lakes, springs, and wetlands—rich assemblages of fishes reside, representing diverse taxonomic groups with unique ecological requirements. They face an unprecedented conservation crisis.1 In the last few decades, the proportion of inland fishes of North America, which are considered imperiled or extinct, increased from 20 to 40%.2 Although extinctions have occurred, many species and populations are declining in range size and abundance. The fish biota of the continent as a whole remains diverse; however, we can take action to stem any further declines.

  7. The Rise and Decline of Japanese Pacifism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Cai

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The Japanese pacifist constitution has been a symbol of Japan’s commitment to peace and more importantly its renunciation of wartime militarism. There has been strong support for its continuing existence amongst the Japanese populace despite persistent attempts by the Japanese government to amend it. However, the prevalent pacifist sentiment is showing signs of fading vitality in recent times. This article purports to examine the underlying forces that contributed to the development and the decline of Japanese pacifism. A host of domestic and international factors were responsible for the growth of pacifism and its subsequent decline, but only three important domestic factors will be examined in detail: the concept of victimhood in the development of pacifism and its implication for its continuing strength, the importance of peace education and the role played by the influential Japan’s Teachers’ Union on the formation of pacifist conscience and finally, the influence of leftist organisations on the organised peace movement.

  8. The rise (and decline?) of biotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinch, Michael S

    2014-11-01

    Since the 1970s, biotechnology has been a key innovator in drug development. An analysis of FDA-approved therapeutics demonstrates pharmaceutical companies outpace biotechs in terms of new approvals but biotechnology companies are now responsible for earlier-stage activities (patents, INDs or clinical development). The number of biotechnology organizations that contributed to an FDA approval began declining in the 2000s and is at a level not seen since the 1980s. Whereas early biotechnology companies had a decade from first approval until acquisition, the average acquisition of a biotechnology company now occurs months before their first FDA approval. The number of hybrid organizations that arise when pharmaceutical companies acquire biotechnology is likewise declining, raising questions about the sustainability of biotechnology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Functional and cognitive decline in hospitalized elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EUGÉNIA MENDES

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Aim – Understand if functional and cognitive decline is accentuated during hospitalization in elderly patients. Method – It was design a descriptive and correlational study. The Functional Independence Measure (FIM and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE were used. Results – Were evaluated at admission and discharge 51 elderly (75.53 ± 7.16 years, 53% women, admitted in an internal medicine unit with a length of stay of 14.27±6.45 days. For FIM and MMSE were found statistically significant differences with lower scores from admission to discharge. Negative correlations between age and length of stay and the scores of all measures were found. Except for the Cognitive FIM at admission, all elderly residents at home fared better than the institutionalized in all measures. Conclusions – The hospitalization contributes to a greater weakness/frailty of the elderly and is considered high risk for decline in physical fitness and cognitive function.

  10. Alleviating dam impacts along the transboundary Se San River in northeast Cambodia : a review of the rapid environmental impact assessment on the Cambodian part of the Se San River due to hydropower development in Vietnam (July 2007 version)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-02-15

    Probe International has reviewed 2 reports regarding the environmental impact assessment (EIA) on the Cambodian part of the Se San River resulting from hydropower development in Vietnam. Both reports were prepared for Electricity of Vietnam (EVN), the project owner and developer. The operation of 3 large hydro dams on the upper Se San River has disrupted flow in downstream Cambodia where more than 28,000 people depend on the river for drinking water, irrigation, fishing, livestock watering and transportation. Probe International's focus is on mitigating and compensating for affected communities in downstream Cambodia. Their review of the EIAs recommends that Electricity of Vietnam consider switching from peaking to base load operations at its upper Se San hydro dams to mitigate the impacts in downstream Cambodia. The downstream impacts of EVN dams on the Se San River include loss of life, property, livelihood and habitat; malnutrition; loss of wet season rice production; reduced fish catches; food security at risk; loss of fish protein; loss of river bank agriculture; reduced availability of plants for food and medicine; river bank erosion; reservoir erosion and downstream turbidity; increased transportation risks; loss of fisheries habitat; increased pressure on upland forests; disrupted riverine ecosystem; and disrupted fish migration. The EIA recommendations include the re-regulation of the Se San 4A reservoir; operational changes to reduce downstream fluctuations and erosion; monitoring impact of operations on water quantity and quality downstream; algal monitoring; establishment of early warning system for spillway release; prolonging the wet season filling of the reservoir; reducing nutrient inputs to the rivers and reservoirs and a fish stocking program. 6 figs., 1 appendix.

  11. Respiratory muscle decline in Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khirani, Sonia; Ramirez, Adriana; Aubertin, Guillaume; Boulé, Michèle; Chemouny, Chrystelle; Forin, Véronique; Fauroux, Brigitte

    2014-05-01

    Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) causes progressive respiratory muscle weakness. The aim of the study was to analyze the trend of a large number of respiratory parameters to gain further information on the course of the disease. Retrospective study. 48 boys with DMD, age range between 6 and 19 year old, who were followed in our multidisciplinary neuromuscular clinic between 2001 and 2011. Lung function, blood gases, respiratory mechanics, and muscle strength were measured during routine follow-up over a 10-year period. Only data from patients with at least two measurements were retained. The data of 28 patients were considered for analysis. Four parameters showed an important decline with age. Gastric pressure during cough (Pgas cough) was below normal in all patients with a mean decline of 5.7 ± 3.8 cmH2 O/year. Sniff nasal inspiratory pressure (SNIP) tended to increase first followed by a rapid decline (mean decrease 4.8 ± 4.9 cmH2 O; 5.2 ± 4.4% predicted/year). Absolute forced vital capacity (FVC) values peaked around the age of 13-14 years and remained mainly over 1 L but predicted values showed a mean 4.1 ± 4.4% decline/year. Diaphragmatic tension-time index (TTdi) increased above normal values after the age of 14 years with a mean increase of 0.04 ± 0.04 point/year. This study confirms the previous findings that FVC and SNIP are among the most important parameters to monitor the evolution of DMD. Expiratory muscle strength, assessed by Pgas cough, and the endurance index, TTdi, which are reported for the first time in a large cohort, appeared to be informative too, even though measured through an invasive method. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Postcolonial Bombay : decline of a cosmopolitan city?

    OpenAIRE

    McFarlane, C.

    2008-01-01

    Discussions of cosmopolitanism in Bombay often focus on the rubrics of communal tension, tolerance, and violence, and frequently report the decline of a once cosmopolitan city, especially as a result of the communal riots and bombings that occurred in the early 1990s. However, claims that the city has undergone a general social transformation since the 1990s need to be tempered by the multiple forms of cosmopolitan imaginations and practices that exist in the city. There is a wide variety ...

  13. Nuclear power : decline, prolongation or renewal?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    In an international context still under the shock of Fukushima, and at a time when France is committed to an energy transition, the details of which still have to be decided, the future of nuclear power in the world is provoking intense and contradictory debate. What to expert: a decline, business as usual, or a renewal of the sector throughout its value chain? Some answers are to be found in an analysis by Colombus Consulting. (author)

  14. Lung function decline in bronchial asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cibella, Fabio; Cuttitta, Giuseppina; Bellia, Vincenzo; Bucchieri, Salvatore; D'Anna, Silvestre; Guerrera, Daniela; Bonsignore, Giovanni

    2002-12-01

    We evaluated the longitudinal changes in lung function and the factors associated with FEV(1) changes over time in a sample of asthmatic subjects. FEV(1) measures were recorded every 3 months over a 5-year follow-up period. To compare all subjects independently of body size, FEV(1) values were normalized for the subject's height at the third power. We evaluated the possible effect of age, baseline FEV(1), disease duration, and FEV(1) variability on the rate of change of FEV(1). We studied 142 subjects with asthma diagnosed on the basis of validated clinical and functional criteria. FEV(1) showed a linear decay with aging in each subject. For a subject 1.65 m in height, the median overall FEV(1) decay was 40.9 mL/yr. FEV(1) decay slopes were significantly influenced by age and sex, being steeper in younger male subjects. A significant interaction was found between age and baseline FEV(1): the FEV(1) decay was significantly higher among younger asthmatics with a poorer baseline functional condition. A longer disease duration was associated with a lower FEV(1) slope. FEV(1) variability was strongly associated with an increased rate of FEV(1) decline. FEV(1) decline in patients with bronchial asthma is significantly influenced by baseline FEV(1), disease duration, and FEV(1) variability. Moreover, the rate of FEV(1) decline seems to increase in younger subjects only when the baseline function is poorer.

  15. Farmer's lung is now in decline.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Arya, A

    2012-02-03

    Farmer\\'s lung incidence in Ireland was constant until 1996, even though hay making methods were revolutionised in late 1980\\'s. We undertook this study to find out the incidence of farmer\\'s lung in Ireland from 1982-2002 and its correlation with rainfall and the effect of changing farm practices. The primary cases of farmer\\'s lung were identified from Hospital in Patients Enquiry (HIPE) unit of the national Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) Dublin. Rainfall data were obtained from Met Eireann whereas population, hay production and silage production were obtained from the Central Statistics Office, Dublin. As the farming population is in decline, we used the annual working unit (AWU), which reflects the true population at risk. An AWU is the equivalent of 1800 hours per farm worker per year. The incidence rates were constant from 1982-1996, but from 1997-2002 a marked decline was observed. There was strong positive correlation with hay production (r = 0.81) and strong negative correlation with silage production (r = -0.82). This study indicates that the incidence of farmer\\'s lung is now in decline.

  16. Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimiter Philipov

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This chapter provides a detailed description of the fertility changes in Bulgaria during recent decades and discusses possible reasons and consequences. It also gives an overview of the steps that the government has undertaken to offset the considerable decline in fertility. Before the fall of communism, fertility trends in Bulgaria were stable and characterized by a nearly universal entry into parenthood, dominance of a two-child family model, an early start and early end of childbearing, stable mean ages at entry into childbearing and marriage, and low percentages of non-marital births. During the 1990s and in the first years of the new century, we observe a marked, rapid change in fertility behaviour. Together with the severe decline in overall fertility rates, demographic data reveal a significant postponement of entry into motherhood and marriage, a decline of the two-child family model, and an emergence of new family forms. Most research attributes these changes to the particular political and social situation in Bulgaria since 1989.

  17. Earliest functional declines in Huntington disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beglinger, Leigh J.; O'Rourke, Justin J.F.; Wang, Chiachi; Langbehn, Douglas R.; Duff, Kevin; Paulsen, Jane S.

    2013-01-01

    We examined the gold standard for Huntington disease (HD) functional assessment, the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS), in a group of at-risk participants not yet diagnosed but who later phenoconverted to manifest HD. We also sought to determine which skill domains first weaken and the clinical correlates of declines. Using the UHDRS Total Functional Capacity (TFC) and Functional Assessment Scale (FAS), we examined participants from Huntington Study Group clinics who were not diagnosed at their baseline visit but were diagnosed at a later visit (N = 265). Occupational decline was the most common with 65.1% (TFC) and 55.6% (FAS) reporting some loss of ability to engage in their typical work. Inability to manage finances independently (TFC 49.2%, FAS 35.1%) and drive safely (FAS 33.5%) were also found. Functional decline was significantly predicted by motor, cognitive, and depressive symptoms. The UHDRS captured early functional losses in individuals with HD prior to formal diagnosis, however, fruitful areas for expanded assessment of early functional changes are performance at work, ability to manage finances, and driving. These are also important areas for clinical monitoring and treatment planning as up to 65% experienced loss in at least one area prior to diagnosis. PMID:20471695

  18. An analysis of the declining support for the ANC during the 2011 South African local government elections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Twala

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Local government elections are notorious for low voter turnout, but the May 2011 elections in South Africa showed a record 58 percent of the 24 million registered voters. In South Africa, local government matters and not just because it provides a pointer to what might happen in the provincial and national elections due in 2014, but helps in determining the readiness of the African Nation Congress in providing basic services to the different communities. Interestingly, these elections were preceded by service delivery protests against the ANC. The article is an analysis of the decreased support for the ANC during the 2011 local government elections. The multifaceted reasons behind the boiling cauldron of this decline in support for the ANC are scrutinised. Underpinning this decline in support often lie deep and complex factors which can be uncovered through a careful analysis of the ANC’s campaigning strategies ahead of these elections; the media which has been accused of rampant sensationalism; service delivery protests and mudslinging from other political parties. However, it is not the author’s intention in this article to deal with how other parties fared during these elections, but to highlight their impact on the declined support received by the ANC in the elections. The discussion is presented in four parts: the first presents an exploratory discussion on the theory of local government in the sphere of governance. The second part discusses some key strategies and tactics used by the ANC in attempts to galvanise support, as well as the challenges encountered. The third deals with the opposition parties’ machinery in preventing the ANC from getting a majority vote during the election. Lastly, the article concludes by highlighting the lessons learnt by the ANC during these elections within the framework of electoral politics in South Africa. Keywords: local election 2011, African National Congress (ANC, local government.  Disciplines

  19. Changes in land use as a possible factor in Mourning Dove population decline in Central Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrand, William D.; Meyers, P.M.; Bissonette, J.A.; Conover, M.R.

    1998-01-01

    Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura) population indices for the western United States have declined significantly since 1966. Based on data collected in 1951-1952, in Fillmore, Utah, we examined whether there had been a local decline in the dove population index since the original data were collected. We then determined whether habitat had been altered, identified which foraging habitats doves preferred, and assessed whether changes in land use could be responsible, in part, for a decline in the local population index. We found that dove population indices declined 72% and 82% from 1952-1992 and 1952-1993, respectively. The most dramatic change in habitat was an 82% decline in land devoted to dry land winter wheat production and a decline in livestock feed pens. Doves foraged primarily in harvested wheat fields, feed pens, and weedy patches. We hypothesize that a decrease in wheat availability during the spring and the consolidation of the livestock industry have contributed to a population decline of Mourning Doves in central Utah.

  20. Rising trade, declining stocks: The global gugul (Commiphora wightii) trade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, A B; Brinckmann, J A; Kulloli, R N; Schippmann, U

    2018-05-07

    Commiphora wightii is exploited in India and Pakistan for an oleo-resin (gum guggul) traditionally used in Ayurvedic, Siddha and Unani medical systems. Processed C. wightii oleo-resin products are exported from India to 42 countries, including re-export to Pakistan, for anti-inflammatory use and as an anti-inflammatory and an anti-obesity treatment considered to lower cholesterol and lipid levels. The C. wightii export trade has particular relevance to the European Union because Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and United Kingdom are importing countries. Demand and prices for C. wightii oleo-resin are increasing and wild stocks of C. wightii are in decline. The overexploitation of C. wightii after tapping for its commercially valuable oleo-resin is not a new problem, however, but one that has existed for over 50 years. Lopping and chopping trees to extract C. wightii oleo-resin has had a devastating impact on C. wightii populations since the 1960's. The aim of this study was to review the sustainability of the global trade in C. wightii oleo-resin. This included reviewing studies on resin tapping methods and the impacts of wild harvest on C. wightii populations in India and Pakistan. Firstly, we reviewed studies on impacts of C. wightii oleo-resin harvest and on the policy responses taken in relation to harvest and trade in C. wightii oleo-resin. Secondly, we reviewed studies on C. wightii cultivation. Thirdly, global trade data for C. wightii were analyzed. Destructive harvest to obtain the gum is the major threat facing this species. C. wightii populations are also fragmented by habitat loss through clearing for farming. Cutting and lopping in order to extract the medicinal gum are a major threat to C. wightii populations, as is poor recruitment due to grazing by livestock. As a result of over-exploitation, C. wightii oleo-resin production has declined in India. In Gujarat, a key production area, the decline over a 50-year period has

  1. Predicting Speech Intelligibility Decline in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Based on the Deterioration of Individual Speech Subsystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunusova, Yana; Wang, Jun; Zinman, Lorne; Pattee, Gary L.; Berry, James D.; Perry, Bridget; Green, Jordan R.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To determine the mechanisms of speech intelligibility impairment due to neurologic impairments, intelligibility decline was modeled as a function of co-occurring changes in the articulatory, resonatory, phonatory, and respiratory subsystems. Method Sixty-six individuals diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) were studied longitudinally. The disease-related changes in articulatory, resonatory, phonatory, and respiratory subsystems were quantified using multiple instrumental measures, which were subjected to a principal component analysis and mixed effects models to derive a set of speech subsystem predictors. A stepwise approach was used to select the best set of subsystem predictors to model the overall decline in intelligibility. Results Intelligibility was modeled as a function of five predictors that corresponded to velocities of lip and jaw movements (articulatory), number of syllable repetitions in the alternating motion rate task (articulatory), nasal airflow (resonatory), maximum fundamental frequency (phonatory), and speech pauses (respiratory). The model accounted for 95.6% of the variance in intelligibility, among which the articulatory predictors showed the most substantial independent contribution (57.7%). Conclusion Articulatory impairments characterized by reduced velocities of lip and jaw movements and resonatory impairments characterized by increased nasal airflow served as the subsystem predictors of the longitudinal decline of speech intelligibility in ALS. Declines in maximum performance tasks such as the alternating motion rate preceded declines in intelligibility, thus serving as early predictors of bulbar dysfunction. Following the rapid decline in speech intelligibility, a precipitous decline in maximum performance tasks subsequently occurred. PMID:27148967

  2. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  3. Hegemonic Decline, West European Unification, and the Future Structure of the Core

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker Bornschier

    1995-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper queries the applicability of hegemonic cycle theories to the emerging structure in the core of the world political economy and argues that we are likely, following this period of relative decline in American hegemony, to witness the emergence of hegemonic social practices in the absence, however, of a hegemonic state. Contrasting new beginnings with past patterns, we will suggest arguments why history will not be repeated. Drawing on our research on the Single European Act (SEA, we argue that the bargain struck between the Commission of the European Union and West European transnational corporations, which culminated in the SEA, represents more than a decisive step towards economic and political union. We see it, more significantly, as embodying Europe's response to its declining position through an attempt to articulate a new societal model capable of successfully replacing the disarticulated post-WWII Keynesian social-welfare model, and of competing with the Japanese and American societal models. In the future, it is very unlikely that power among the actors in the Triad will be so unevenly distributed as to permit the rise of a new hegemonic state. While it would seem, judging from historical experience, that the presence of a hegemonic state was functionally necessary for the establishment of hegemonic social practices in the core, we argue that another mechanism has now moved to the forefront. Due to pressures generated through increasing economic globalization, linked to demands associated with the quest for legitimacy on the part of democratic governments, we foresee, following a period of increased economic competition, the convergence of social practices around a single societal model.

  4. Predictive neuromechanical simulations indicate why walking performance declines with ageing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Seungmoon; Geyer, Hartmut

    2018-04-01

    Although the natural decline in walking performance with ageing affects the quality of life of a growing elderly population, its physiological origins remain unknown. By using predictive neuromechanical simulations of human walking with age-related neuro-musculo-skeletal changes, we find evidence that the loss of muscle strength and muscle contraction speed dominantly contribute to the reduced walking economy and speed. The findings imply that focusing on recovering these muscular changes may be the only effective way to improve performance in elderly walking. More generally, the work is of interest for investigating the physiological causes of altered gait due to age, injury and disorders. Healthy elderly people walk slower and energetically less efficiently than young adults. This decline in walking performance lowers the quality of life for a growing ageing population, and understanding its physiological origin is critical for devising interventions that can delay or revert it. However, the origin of the decline in walking performance remains unknown, as ageing produces a range of physiological changes whose individual effects on gait are difficult to separate in experiments with human subjects. Here we use a predictive neuromechanical model to separately address the effects of common age-related changes to the skeletal, muscular and nervous systems. We find in computer simulations of this model that the combined changes produce gait consistent with elderly walking and that mainly the loss of muscle strength and mass reduces energy efficiency. In addition, we find that the slower preferred walking speed of elderly people emerges in the simulations when adapting to muscle fatigue, again mainly caused by muscle-related changes. The results suggest that a focus on recovering these muscular changes may be the only effective way to improve performance in elderly walking. © 2018 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2018 The Physiological Society.

  5. Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, Senthold; Cammarano, Davide; Basso, Bruno; Chung, Uran; Alderman, Phillip D; Sonder, Kai; Reynolds, Matthew; Lobell, David B

    2017-06-01

    Many of the irrigated spring wheat regions in the world are also regions with high poverty. The impacts of temperature increase on wheat yield in regions of high poverty are uncertain. A grain yield-temperature response function combined with a quantification of model uncertainty was constructed using a multimodel ensemble from two key irrigated spring wheat areas (India and Sudan) and applied to all irrigated spring wheat regions in the world. Southern Indian and southern Pakistani wheat-growing regions with large yield reductions from increasing temperatures coincided with high poverty headcounts, indicating these areas as future food security 'hot spots'. The multimodel simulations produced a linear absolute decline of yields with increasing temperature, with uncertainty varying with reference temperature at a location. As a consequence of the linear absolute yield decline, the relative yield reductions are larger in low-yielding environments (e.g., high reference temperature areas in southern India, southern Pakistan and all Sudan wheat-growing regions) and farmers in these regions will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures. However, as absolute yield declines are about the same in low- and high-yielding regions, the contributed deficit to national production caused by increasing temperatures is higher in high-yielding environments (e.g., northern India) because these environments contribute more to national wheat production. Although Sudan could potentially grow more wheat if irrigation is available, grain yields would be low due to high reference temperatures, with future increases in temperature further limiting production. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Differentiated decline in Danish outskirt areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Lea Louise Holst; Andersson, Lasse

    2011-01-01

    The latest figures show that minor Danish villages and rural areas through the last 20 years have suffered from depopulation and economical decline, and it is a development that seems to accelerate. The negative consequences of this development are low house prizes, a higher unemployment rate than...... in Danish rural areas can be reverted and a general growth can be created. But it will argue that on a local level using a landscape orientated and cultural planning approach new cohesion on a spatial, architectonic as well as economic and cultural level can be created. Throughout the studies of the Village...

  7. Decline in male circumcision in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, DaiSik; Koo, Sung-Ae; Pang, Myung-Geol

    2012-12-11

    To investigate the changing circumcision rate in South Korea in the last decade and to propose underlying causes for this change, in the context of the present fluctuating world-wide trends in circumcision. From 2009 to 2011, 3,296 South Korean males (or their parents) aged 0-64 years were asked about their circumcision status, their age at circumcision, and their information level regarding circumcision. We employed non-probability sampling considering the sensitive questions on the study theme. Currently the age-standardized circumcision rate for South Korean males aged 14-29 is found to be 75.8%. In an earlier study performed in 2002, the rate for the same age group was 86.3%. Of particular interest, males aged 14-16 show a circumcision rate of 56.4%, while the same age group 10 years ago displayed a much higher percentage, at 88.4%. In addition, the extraordinarily high circumcision rate of 95.2% found 10 years ago for the 17-19 age group is now reduced to 74.4%. Interestingly, of the circumcised males, the percentage circumcised in the last decade was only 25.2%; i.e., the majority of the currently circumcised males had undergone the operation prior to 2002, indicating that the actual change in the last decade is far greater. Consistent with this conjecture, the 2002 survey showed that the majority of circumcised males (75.7%) had undergone the operation in the decade prior to that point. Focusing on the flagship age group of 14-16, this drop suggests that, considering the population structure of Korean males, approximately one million fewer circumcision operations have been performed in the last decade relative to the case of non-decline. This decline is strongly correlated with the information available through internet, newspapers, lectures, books, and television: within the circumcised population, both the patients and their parents had less prior knowledge regarding circumcision, other than information obtained from person to person by oral communication

  8. Phylogenetic escalation and decline of plant defense strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Anurag A.; Fishbein, Mark

    2008-01-01

    As the basal resource in most food webs, plants have evolved myriad strategies to battle consumption by herbivores. Over the past 50 years, plant defense theories have been formulated to explain the remarkable variation in abundance, distribution, and diversity of secondary chemistry and other defensive traits. For example, classic theories of enemy-driven evolutionary dynamics have hypothesized that defensive traits escalate through the diversification process. Despite the fact that macroevolutionary patterns are an explicit part of defense theories, phylogenetic analyses have not been previously attempted to disentangle specific predictions concerning (i) investment in resistance traits, (ii) recovery after damage, and (iii) plant growth rate. We constructed a molecular phylogeny of 38 species of milkweed and tested four major predictions of defense theory using maximum-likelihood methods. We did not find support for the growth-rate hypothesis. Our key finding was a pattern of phyletic decline in the three most potent resistance traits (cardenolides, latex, and trichomes) and an escalation of regrowth ability. Our neontological approach complements more common paleontological approaches to discover directional trends in the evolution of life and points to the importance of natural enemies in the macroevolution of species. The finding of macroevolutionary escalating regowth ability and declining resistance provides a window into the ongoing coevolutionary dynamics between plants and herbivores and suggests a revision of classic plant defense theory. Where plants are primarily consumed by specialist herbivores, regrowth (or tolerance) may be favored over resistance traits during the diversification process. PMID:18645183

  9. Functional neuroimaging of normal aging: Declining brain, adapting brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiura, Motoaki

    2016-09-01

    Early functional neuroimaging research on normal aging brain has been dominated by the interest in cognitive decline. In this framework the age-related compensatory recruitment of prefrontal cortex, in terms of executive system or reduced lateralization, has been established. Further details on these compensatory mechanisms and the findings reflecting cognitive decline, however, remain the matter of intensive investigations. Studies in another framework where age-related neural alteration is considered adaptation to the environmental change are recently burgeoning and appear largely categorized into three domains. The age-related increase in activation of the sensorimotor network may reflect the alteration of the peripheral sensorimotor systems. The increased susceptibility of the network for the mental-state inference to the socioemotional significance may be explained by the age-related motivational shift due to the altered social perception. The age-related change in activation of the self-referential network may be relevant to the focused positive self-concept of elderly driven by a similar motivational shift. Across the domains, the concept of the self and internal model may provide the theoretical bases of this adaptation framework. These two frameworks complement each other to provide a comprehensive view of the normal aging brain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. The decline of natural sciences in the culture of mass media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elías, Carlos

    2011-06-01

    This study sets out to determine if the interest in and study of natural sciences is declining in western countries as scientists currently contend. Part one demonstrates how survey results reveal a decline of interest in scientific news in the EU. Part two explores the decline of interest further through examining data such as the number of students interested in scientific subjects and scientific careers. I explore the hypothesis that the lack of interest in scientific subjects is influenced by the culture of the mass media, and the manner in which the media covers scientific items. I examine a range of media outlets, from reality TV shows and TV series, to movies and the press. Many aspects of this paper have been discussed in depth in my book published in 2008: La razón estrangulada (Reason Strangled: the Crisis of Science in Contemporary Society).

  11. Decline of the world's saline lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurtsbaugh, Wayne A.; Miller, Craig; Null, Sarah E.; Derose, R. Justin; Wilcock, Peter; Hahnenberger, Maura; Howe, Frank; Moore, Johnnie

    2017-11-01

    Many of the world's saline lakes are shrinking at alarming rates, reducing waterbird habitat and economic benefits while threatening human health. Saline lakes are long-term basin-wide integrators of climatic conditions that shrink and grow with natural climatic variation. In contrast, water withdrawals for human use exert a sustained reduction in lake inflows and levels. Quantifying the relative contributions of natural variability and human impacts to lake inflows is needed to preserve these lakes. With a credible water balance, causes of lake decline from water diversions or climate variability can be identified and the inflow needed to maintain lake health can be defined. Without a water balance, natural variability can be an excuse for inaction. Here we describe the decline of several of the world's large saline lakes and use a water balance for Great Salt Lake (USA) to demonstrate that consumptive water use rather than long-term climate change has greatly reduced its size. The inflow needed to maintain bird habitat, support lake-related industries and prevent dust storms that threaten human health and agriculture can be identified and provides the information to evaluate the difficult tradeoffs between direct benefits of consumptive water use and ecosystem services provided by saline lakes.

  12. The cultural evolution of fertility decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colleran, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Cultural evolutionists have long been interested in the problem of why fertility declines as populations develop. By outlining plausible mechanistic links between individual decision-making, information flow in populations and competition between groups, models of cultural evolution offer a novel and powerful approach for integrating multiple levels of explanation of fertility transitions. However, only a modest number of models have been published. Their assumptions often differ from those in other evolutionary approaches to social behaviour, but their empirical predictions are often similar. Here I offer the first overview of cultural evolutionary research on demographic transition, critically compare it with approaches taken by other evolutionary researchers, identify gaps and overlaps, and highlight parallel debates in demography. I suggest that researchers divide their labour between three distinct phases of fertility decline—the origin, spread and maintenance of low fertility—each of which may be driven by different causal processes, at different scales, requiring different theoretical and empirical tools. A comparative, multi-level and mechanistic framework is essential for elucidating both the evolved aspects of our psychology that govern reproductive decision-making, and the social, ecological and cultural contingencies that precipitate and sustain fertility decline. PMID:27022079

  13. The impact of freedom on fertility decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martha M; Prata, Ndola; Potts, Malcolm

    2013-01-01

    Although fertility decline often correlates with improvements in socioeconomic conditions, many demographers have found flaws in demographic transition theories that depend on changes in distal factors such as increased wealth or education. Human beings worldwide engage in sexual intercourse much more frequently than is needed to conceive the number of children they want, and for women who do not have access to the information and means they need to separate sex from childbearing, the default position is a large family. In many societies, male patriarchal drives to control female reproduction give rise to unnecessary medical rules constraining family planning (including safe abortion) or justifying child marriage. Widespread misinformation about contraception makes women afraid to adopt modern family planning. The barriers to family planning can be so deeply infused that for many women the idea of managing their fertility is not considered an option. Conversely, there is evidence that once family planning is introduced into a society, then it is normal consumer behaviour for individuals to welcome a new technology they had not wanted until it became realistically available. We contend that in societies free from child marriage, wherever women have access to a range of contraceptive methods, along with correct information and backed up by safe abortion, family size will always fall. Education and wealth can make the adoption of family planning easier, but they are not prerequisites for fertility decline. By contrast, access to family planning itself can accelerate economic development and the spread of education.

  14. Contrasting development of declining and living larch-spruce stands after a disturbance event: A case study from the High Tatra Mts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šebeň Vladimír

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The decline of spruce stands caused by bark beetle outbreaks is a serious economic and ecological problem of forestry in Slovakia. In the preceding period, the decline affected mainly secondary spruce forests. Over the last decade, due to large bark-beetle outbreaks this problem has been observed also in natural spruce forests, even at high elevations. We dealt with this issue in a case study of short-term development of larch-spruce stands in the High Tatras (at a site called Štart. We compared the situation in the stand infested by bark beetles several years after the wind-throw in 2004 with the stand unaffected by bark beetles. We separately analysed the development of the mature (parent stands and the regeneration. The results indicated that forest decline caused by bark beetles significantly depended on the stand structure (mainly tree species composition, which affected the period of stand disintegration. Mortality of spruce trees slowed down biomass accumulation (and thus carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In the new stand, pioneer tree species dominated (in the conditions of the High Tatras it is primarily rowan, although their share in the parent stand was negligible. The results showed different trends in the accumulation of below-ground and above-ground biomass in the declined and living stands. In the first years after the stand decline, rowan accumulated significantly more biomass than the main tree species, i.e. spruce. The reverse situation was under the surviving stand, where spruce trees accumulated more biomass than rowan. The different share of spruce and pioneer tree species, mainly rowan, affected the ratio between fixed (in woody parts of trees and rotating (in foliage carbon in the undergrowth. Forest die-back is a big source of carbon emissions from dead individuals, and the compensation of these losses in the form of carbon sequestration by future stands is a matter of several decades.

  15. Trait-based analysis of decline in plant species ranges during the 20th century: a regional comparison between the UK and Estonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laanisto, Lauri; Sammul, Marek; Kull, Tiiu; Macek, Petr; Hutchings, Michael J

    2015-02-02

    Although the distribution ranges and abundance of many plant species have declined dramatically in recent decades, detailed analysis of these changes and their cause have only become possible following the publication of second- and third-generation national distribution atlases. Decline can now be compared both between species and in different parts of species' ranges. We extracted data from distribution atlases to compare range persistence of 736 plant species common to both the UK and Estonia between survey periods encompassing almost the same years (1969 and 1999 in the UK and 1970 and 2004 in Estonia). We determined which traits were most closely associated with variation in species persistence, whether these were the same in each country, and the extent to which they explained differences in persistence between the countries. Mean range size declined less in Estonia than in the UK (24.3% vs. 30.3%). One-third of species in Estonia (239) maintained >90% of their distribution range compared with one-fifth (141) in the UK. In Estonia, 99 species lost >50% of their range compared with 127 species in the UK. Persistence was very positively related to original range in both countries. Major differences in species persistence between the studied countries were primarily determined by biogeographic (affiliation to floristic element) and ecoevolutionary (plant strategy) factors. In contrast, within-country persistence was most strongly determined by tolerance of anthropogenic activities. Decline of species in the families Orchidaceae and Potamogetonaceae was significantly greater in the UK than in Estonia. Almost all of the 736 common and native European plant species in our study are currently declining in their range due to pressure from anthropogenic activities. Those species with low tolerance of human activity, with biotic pollination vectors and in the families referred to above are the most vulnerable, especially where human population density is high. © 2015

  16. Causes of maternal mortality decline in Matlab, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Mahbub Elahi; Ahmed, Anisuddin; Kalim, Nahid; Koblinsky, Marge

    2009-04-01

    Bangladesh is distinct among developing countries in achieving a low maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 322 per 100,000 livebirths despite the very low use of skilled care at delivery (13% nationally). This variation has also been observed in Matlab, a rural area in Bangladesh, where longitudinal data on maternal mortality are available since the mid-1970s. The current study investigated the possible causes of the maternal mortality decline in Matlab. The study analyzed 769 maternal deaths and 215,779 pregnancy records from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) and other sources of safe motherhood data in the ICDDR,B and government service areas in Matlab during 1976-2005. The major interventions that took place in both the areas since the early 1980s were the family-planning programme plus safe menstrual regulation services and safe motherhood interventions (midwives for normal delivery in the ICDDR,B service area from the late 1980s and equal access to comprehensive emergency obstetric care [EmOC] in public facilities for women from both the areas). National programmes for social development and empowerment of women through education and microcredit programmes were implemented in both the areas. The quantitative findings were supplemented by a qualitative study by interviewing local community care providers for their change in practices for maternal healthcare over time. After the introduction of the safe motherhood programme, reduction in maternal mortality was higher in the ICDDR,B service area (68.6%) than in the government service area (50.4%) during 1986-1989 and 2001-2005. Reduction in the number of maternal deaths due to the fertility decline was higher in the government service area (30%) than in the ICDDR,B service area (23%) during 1979-2005. In each area, there has been substantial reduction in abortion-related mortality--86.7% and 78.3%--in the ICDDR,B and government service areas respectively. Education of women was a strong predictor

  17. Diplopia due to Dacryops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahmi Duman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Dacryops is a lacrimal ductal cyst. It is known that it can cause globe displacement, motility restriction, and proptosis because of the mass effect. Diplopia due to dacryops has not been reported previously. Here, we present a 57-year-old man with binocular horizontal diplopia that occurred during left direction gaze due to dacryops.

  18. Pesticide Mixtures, Endocrine Disruption, and Amphibian Declines: Are We Underestimating the Impact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Tyrone B.; Case, Paola; Chui, Sarah; Chung, Duc; Haeffele, Cathryn; Haston, Kelly; Lee, Melissa; Mai, Vien Phoung; Marjuoa, Youssra; Parker, John; Tsui, Mable

    2006-01-01

    Amphibian populations are declining globally at an alarming rate. Pesticides are among a number of proposed causes for these declines. Although a sizable database examining effects of pesticides on amphibians exists, the vast majority of these studies focus on toxicological effects (lethality, external malformations, etc.) at relatively high doses (parts per million). Very few studies focus on effects such as endocrine disruption at low concentrations. Further, most studies examine exposures to single chemicals only. The present study examined nine pesticides (four herbicides, two fungicides, and three insecticides) used on cornfields in the midwestern United States. Effects of each pesticide alone (0.1 ppb) or in combination were examined. In addition, we also examined atrazine and S-metolachlor combined (0.1 or 10 ppb each) and the commercial formulation Bicep II Magnum, which contains both of these herbicides. These two pesticides were examined in combination because they are persistent throughout the year in the wild. We examined larval growth and development, sex differentiation, and immune function in leopard frogs (Rana pipiens). In a follow-up study, we also examined the effects of the nine-compound mixture on plasma corticosterone levels in male African clawed frogs (Xenopus laevis). Although some of the pesticides individually inhibited larval growth and development, the pesticide mixtures had much greater effects. Larval growth and development were retarded, but most significantly, pesticide mixtures negated or reversed the typically positive correlation between time to metamorphosis and size at metamorphosis observed in controls: exposed larvae that took longer to metamorphose were smaller than their counterparts that metamorphosed earlier. The nine-pesticide mixture also induced damage to the thymus, resulting in immunosuppression and contraction of flavobacterial meningitis. The study in X. laevis revealed that these adverse effects may be due to an

  19. Plant injury due to air pollution - similar symptoms. Part I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuoka, Y

    1976-01-01

    Many plant diseases cause injuries to leaves which mimic the damage inflicted by air pollution. The relationship between air pollution injuries and those caused by meteorological conditions are discussed. Rice plants often contract akagare which causes reddish-brown spots on leaves similar to the symptoms caused by photochemical oxidants. Spider mites produce leaf damage in kidney beans which mimics the spotting caused by photochemical oxidants. Lace bugs produce minute white spots on azaleas similar to those caused by photochemical oxidants.

  20. 4 acute nicotine induced pressor response is in part due

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMINU

    increases in heart rate in both normal and in nicotine treated rats but the increases shows no significant differences. ... pre-eclampsia in pregnant women by reduction of production .... (Hilton, 1965) and events occurring in man stress ... during emotional stress in normotensive and ... mechanism contributing to ischemic left.

  1. Predictors of cognitive decline in older adult type 2 diabetes from the Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Zimering

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Aims: Cognitive decline disproportionately affects older adult type 2 diabetes. We tested whether randomized intensive glucose-lowering reduces the rate(s of cognitive decline in adults with advanced type 2 diabetes (mean: age, 60 years; diabetes duration, 11 years from the Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial. Methods: A battery of neuropsychological tests (digit span, digit symbol substitution (DSym, and Trails-making Part B (TMT-B was administered at baseline in ~1700 participants and repeated at year 5. Thirty-six risk factors were evaluated as predictors of cognitive decline in multivariable regression analyses.Results: The mean age-adjusted, DSym or TMT-B declined significantly in all study participants (P < 0.001. Randomized intensive glucose-lowering did not significantly alter the rate of cognitive decline. The final model of risk factors associated with 5-year decline in age-adjusted TMT-B included as significant predictors: longer baseline diabetes duration (beta = -0.028; P = 0.0057, lower baseline diastolic blood pressure (beta = 0.028; P < 0.001, and baseline calcium channel blocker medication use (beta = -0.639; P < 0.001. Higher baseline pulse pressure was significantly associated with decline in age-adjusted TMT-B suggesting a role for both higher systolic and lower diastolic blood pressure. Baseline thiazide diuretic use (beta= -0.549; P =0.015 was an additional significant predictor of 5-year decline in age-adjusted digit symbol score. Post-baseline systolic blood pressure-lowering was significantly associated (P < 0.001 with decline in TMT-B performance. There was a significant inverse association between post-baseline plasma triglyceride- lowering (P = 0.045 and decline in digit symbol substitution task performance.Conclusions: A five-year period of randomized intensive glucose-lowering did not significantly reduce the rate of cognitive decline in older-aged adults with type 2 diabetes. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure as

  2. Documenting and Explaining the HIV Decline in East Zimbabwe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregson, Simon; Mugurungi, Owen; Eaton, Jeffrey

    2017-01-01

    settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15–44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year....... HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART. Future plans: We plan to extend the cohort...

  3. Towards a peri-urban political ecology of water quality decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karpouzoglou, Timothy; Marshall, Fiona; Mehta, Lyla

    2018-01-01

    Recent years have witnessed an expanding body of peri-urban and urban scholarship. However, recent scholarship has yet to adequately address the central role of politics and power shaping water quality decline. The article focuses on the trans-Hindon region which is part of Ghaziabad city, close to

  4. The posterior parahippocampal gyrus is preferentially affected in age-related memory decline.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burgmans, S.; van Boxtel, M.P.J.; van den Berg, K.E.M.; Gronenschild, E.H.B.M.; Jacobs, H.I.L.; Jolles, J.; Uylings, H.B.M.

    2011-01-01

    Atrophy in the medial temporal lobe is generally considered to be highly associated with age-related memory decline. Volume loss in the hippocampus and entorhinal cortex has extensively been investigated, but the posterior parts of the parahippocampal gyrus have received little attention. The

  5. The posterior parahippocampal gyrus is preferentially affected in age-related memory decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burgmans, S.; van Boxtel, M.P.J.; van den Berg, K.E.M.; Gronenschild, E.H.; Jacobs, H.I.L.; Jolles, J.; Uylings, H.B.M.

    2009-01-01

    Atrophy in the medial temporal lobe is generally considered to be highly associated with age-related memory decline. Volume loss in the hippocampus and entorhinal cortex has extensively been investigated, but the posterior parts of the parahippocampal gyrus have received little attention. The

  6. Decay or defeat ? : an inquiry into the Portuguese decline in Asia 1580-1645

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen, Ernst van

    2000-01-01

    Already in the 1590s the Portuguese in Asia looked upon the Dutch as a threat and most historiography has not been able to get away from the part that the Dutch played in the Indo-Portuguese drama. The decline of the Portuguese-Asian empire was however the result of endogenous and extrageneous

  7. FACTORS IMPLICATED IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES IN THE UNITED STATES

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study identified the factors responsible for the decline of native amphibians in the U.S. The type of land use, the introduction of exotic animal species, and chemical contamination were identified as the most likely causes of decline.

  8. Condensate recovery by cycling at declining pressures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Havlena, Z G; Griffith, J D; Pot, R; Kiel, O G

    1967-06-05

    Cycling condensate reservoirs under conditions of declining pressure, rather than constant pressure, is advantageous from both a recovery and an economic standpoint. Wet gas displaced from the swept areas is recovered concurrently with wet gas recovered by gas expansion from the unswept portions of the reservoir. Any liquid condensed in the swept areas is revaporized by dry injection gas and recovered as an enriched gas. By this mode of operation, high condensate recovery is obtained, gas sales may be possible at an earlier stage of depletion, more flexibility in field and plant operations is feasible and reduction of 15% in investment and operating costs is achieved. Injection gas requirements are reduced by 40%. The Windfall reservoir in Canada has been successfully produced in this manner, starting in 1962. It is a typical retrograde type reservoir which in 1965 represented 15% of reservoirs exploited in North America.

  9. Diverging patterns of fertility decline in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathías Nathan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The total fertility rate (TFR in Uruguay fell from 2.5 to 1.9 children per woman between 1996 and 2011. However, no study to date has examined the decline of the TFR by observing changes in fertility patterns by birth order. Objective: The main aim of this study is to analyze recent changes in fertility level and timing of childbearing by birth order in Uruguay. Methods: We estimate unconditional and conditional age- and birth-order-specific fertility rates for 1996-2011 using data from vital statistics, population census, and national population estimates. Additionally, three period summary measures of birth-order-specific fertility quantum are calculated: TFR, PATFR and TFRp*. Timing changes by birth order are examined with MAB and TMAB, focusing on MAB1 and its standard deviation and comparing their evolutions in Uruguay with those of selected countries. Results: Fertility decline fits a parity-specific stopping model with a moderate increase in the mean ages of first, second, and third births. The distribution of conditional fertility rates for first and second births depicts an asymmetric bimodal shape linked to the increasing heterogeneity of the timing of childbearing. Compared to countries with similar fertility trends, heterogeneity in the age at first birth in Uruguay is remarkably high. Conclusions: Previous studies suggest that heterogeneity in first and second birth timing is related to structural social inequalities, as women from lower social strata have not significantly changed the age at which they bear a first child, whereas women of middle to high social strata have started to postpone it. The new evidence reinforces the idea that postponement transition in Uruguay cannot be studied without considering this consolidation of social status polarization in fertility timing.

  10. Panhypopituitarism Due to Hemochromatosis

    OpenAIRE

    Mesut Özkaya; Kadir Gis; Ali Çetinkaya

    2013-01-01

    Hemochromatosis is an iron storage disease. Panhypopituitarism is a clinical condition in which the anterior pituitary hormones are deficient. Herein, we report a rare case of panhypopituitarism due to hemochromatosis. Turk Jem 2013; 17: 125-6

  11. LOW COST METHODOLOGIES TO ANALYZE AND CORRECT ABNORMAL PRODUCTION DECLINE IN STRIPPER GAS WELLS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jerry James; Gene Huck; Tim Knobloch

    2001-01-01

    A study group of 376 Clinton Sand wells in Ohio provided data to determine the historic frequency of the problem of abnormal production declines in stripper gas wells and the causes of the abnormal production decline. Analysis of the historic frequency of the problem indicates over 70% of the wells experienced abnormal production decline. The most frequently occurring causes of abnormal production declines were determined to be fluid accumulation (46%), gas gathering restrictions (24%), and mechanical failures (23%). Data collection forms and decision trees were developed to cost-effectively diagnose the abnormal production declines and suggest corrective action. The decision trees and data collection sheets were incorporated into a procedure guide to provide stripper gas well operators with a methodology to analyze and correct abnormal production declines. The systematic methodologies and techniques developed should increase the efficiency of problem well assessment and implementation of solutions for stripper gas wells. This eight quarterly technical progress report provides a summary of the deliverables completed to date, including the results of the remediations, the procedure guide, and the technology transfer. Due to the successful results of the study to date and the efficiency of the methodology development, two to three additional wells will be selected for remediation for inclusion into the study. The results of the additional remediations will be included in the final report

  12. Deference and Due Process

    OpenAIRE

    Vermeule, Cornelius Adrian

    2015-01-01

    In the textbooks, procedural due process is a strictly judicial enterprise; although substantive entitlements are created by legislative and executive action, it is for courts to decide independently what process the Constitution requires. The notion that procedural due process might be committed primarily to the discretion of the agencies themselves is almost entirely absent from the academic literature. The facts on the ground are very different. Thanks to converging strands of caselaw ...

  13. Three-year progression of emerald ash borer-induced decline and mortality in southeastern Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal J.K. Gandhi; Annemarie Smith; Robert P. Long; Robin A.J. Taylor; Daniel A. Herms

    2008-01-01

    We monitored the progression of ash (Fraxinus spp.) decline and mortality due to emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, in 38 forest stands in the upper Huron River watershed region of southeastern Michigan from 2004-2007. Black ash (F. nigra), green ash (F. pennsylvanica), and white ash...

  14. No relationship between fir decline and air pollution in the Bavarian forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandler, O. (Muenchen University, Muenchen (Germany))

    1992-11-01

    The alleged relationship between fir decline and air pollution in the Bavarian Forest, claimed by Visser and Molenaar (1992), is due to the use of an inadequate measure of the degree of air pollution and a biased set of tree ring data.

  15. Steeper declines in forest photosynthesis than respiration explain age-driven decreases in forest growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, Jianwu; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Richardson, Andrew D.; Kutsch, Werner; Janssens, Ivan A.

    2014-01-01

    The traditional view of forest dynamics originated by Kira and Shidei [Kira T, Shidei T (1967) Jap J Ecol 17:70-87] and Odum [Odum EP (1969) Science 164(3877):262-270] suggests a decline in net primary productivity (NPP) in aging forests due to stabilized gross primary productivity (GPP) and

  16. Can musical engagement alleviate age-related decline in inhibitory control?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vromans, R.D.; Nilsenova, Marie; Papafragou, A.; Grodner, D.; Mirman, D.; Trueswell, J. C.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of our study was to determine whether active musical engagement alleviates decline in inhibitory control due to cognitive aging. Given that musical training in young adults has been shown to improve attentional performance, we can expect this benefit to persist for older adults as well.

  17. What's behind the Good News: The Decline in Teen Pregnancy Rates during the 1990s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanigan, Christine

    Noting that rates of teen pregnancies and births have declined over the past decade, this analysis examined how much of the progress is due to fewer teens having sex and how much to lower rates of pregnancy among sexually active teens. The analysis drew on data from the federal government's National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), a large,…

  18. Social relationships and cognitive decline : a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal cohort studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jisca S.; Zuidersma, Marij; Zuidema, Sytse U.; Burgerhof, Johannes G. M.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Oude Voshaar, Richard C.; Smidt, Nynke

    Background: Although poor social relationships are assumed to contribute to cognitive decline, meta-analytic approaches have not been applied. Individual study results are mixed and difficult to interpret due to heterogeneity in measures of social relationships. We conducted a systematic review and

  19. Social relationships and cognitive decline: a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal cohort studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, J.S.; Zuidersma, M.; Zuidema, S.U.; Burgerhof, J.G.; Stolk, R.P.; Oude Voshaar, R.C.; Smidt, N.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although poor social relationships are assumed to contribute to cognitive decline, meta-analytic approaches have not been applied. Individual study results are mixed and difficult to interpret due to heterogeneity in measures of social relationships. We conducted a systematic review and

  20. Differences in quantitative methods for measuring subjective cognitive decline - results from a prospective memory clinic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Asmus; Salem, Lise Cronberg; Andersen, Birgitte Bo; Waldemar, Gunhild

    2016-09-01

    Cognitive complaints occur frequently in elderly people and may be a risk factor for dementia and cognitive decline. Results from studies on subjective cognitive decline are difficult to compare due to variability in assessment methods, and little is known about how different methods influence reports of cognitive decline. The Subjective Memory Complaints Scale (SMC) and The Memory Complaint Questionnaire (MAC-Q) were applied in 121 mixed memory clinic patients with mild cognitive symptoms (mean MMSE = 26.8, SD 2.7). The scales were applied independently and raters were blinded to results from the other scale. Scales were not used for diagnostic classification. Cognitive performances and depressive symptoms were also rated. We studied the association between the two measures and investigated the scales' relation to depressive symptoms, age, and cognitive status. SMC and MAC-Q were significantly associated (r = 0.44, N = 121, p = 0.015) and both scales had a wide range of scores. In this mixed cohort of patients, younger age was associated with higher SMC scores. There were no significant correlations between cognitive test performances and scales measuring subjective decline. Depression scores were significantly correlated to both scales measuring subjective decline. Linear regression models showed that age did not have a significant contribution to the variance in subjective memory beyond that of depressive symptoms. Measures for subjective cognitive decline are not interchangeable when used in memory clinics and the application of different scales in previous studies is an important factor as to why studies show variability in the association between subjective cognitive decline and background data and/or clinical results. Careful consideration should be taken as to which questions are relevant and have validity when operationalizing subjective cognitive decline.

  1. Declines in American Adults’ Religious Participation and Beliefs, 1972-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean M. Twenge

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous research found declines in Americans’ religious affiliation but few changes in religious beliefs and practices. By 2014, however, markedly fewer Americans participated in religious activities or embraced religious beliefs, with especially striking declines between 2006 and 2014 and among 18- to 29-year-olds in data from the nationally representative General Social Survey (N = 58,893, 1972-2014. In recent years, fewer Americans prayed, believed in God, took the Bible literally, attended religious services, identified as religious, affiliated with a religion, or had confidence in religious institutions. Only slightly more identified as spiritual since 1998, and then only those above age 30. Nearly a third of Millennials were secular not merely in religious affiliation but also in belief in God, religiosity, and religious service attendance, many more than Boomers and Generation X’ers at the same age. Eight times more 18- to 29-year-olds never prayed in 2014 versus the early 1980s. However, Americans have become slightly more likely to believe in an afterlife. In hierarchical linear modeling analyses, the decline in religious commitment was primarily due to time period rather than generation/birth cohort, with the decline in public religious practice larger (d = −.50 and beginning sooner (early 1990s than the smaller (d = −.18 decline in private religious practice and belief (primarily after 2006. Differences in religious commitment due to gender, race, education, and region grew larger, suggesting a more religiously polarized nation.

  2. Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandeep, S.; Ajayamohan, R. S.; Boos, William R.; Sabin, T. P.; Praveen, V.

    2018-03-01

    Cyclonic atmospheric vortices of varying intensity, collectively known as low-pressure systems (LPS), travel northwest across central India and produce more than half of the precipitation received by that fertile region and its ˜600 million inhabitants. Yet, future changes in LPS activity are poorly understood, due in part to inadequate representation of these storms in current climate models. Using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model that realistically simulates the genesis distribution of LPS, here we show that Indian monsoon LPS activity declines about 45% by the late 21st century in simulations of a business-as-usual emission scenario. The distribution of LPS genesis shifts poleward as it weakens, with oceanic genesis decreasing by ˜60% and continental genesis increasing by ˜10%; over land the increase in storm counts is accompanied by a shift toward lower storm wind speeds. The weakening and poleward shift of the genesis distribution in a warmer climate are confirmed and attributed, via a statistical model, to the reduction and poleward shift of low-level absolute vorticity over the monsoon region, which in turn are robust features of most coupled model projections. The poleward shift in LPS activity results in an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events over northern India.

  3. Injury due to thorotrast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Takesaburo

    1976-01-01

    A synthetic study was performed on some of those to whom Thorotrast had been injected, in Japan. In the epidemiological study of 147 war woundeds to whom Thorotrast had been injected, it was noted that the Thorotrast injection increased the mortality rate and the incidences of malignant hepatic tumor, liver cirrhosis, and hematological diseases. Clinical study of 44 of them showed that the Thorotrast injection resulted in liver and hematopoietic hypofunctions. Analysis of the dissection of the injected area in 118 cases showed malignant hepatic tumor in 63.5%, liver cirrhosis in 14.4% and hematological diseases in 10.2%. The total of the three types of disease was 88.1%. Histological classification showed that of the malignant hepatic tumors due to Thorotrast, hepatobiliary cancer and hemangioendothelioma of the liver were frequent. By the comparison of the absorbed dose in the liver of the malignant hepatic tumors due to Thorotrast with that of the cancers developed in animal experiments, it was noted that the carcinogenic dose was a mean of 2,000 - 3,000 rad by accumulated dose. It was elucidated that carcinogenesis and fibrination were primary in injury due to Thorotrast, i.e., late injury due to Thorotrast, and that the increase in the accumulated dose in rogans and the increase of the local dose due to the gigantic growth of Thorotrast granules in organs greatly influenced carninogenesis and fibrination. (Chiba, N.)

  4. Anaphylaxis due to caffeine

    OpenAIRE

    Sugiyama, Kumiya; Cho, Tatsurai; Tatewaki, Masamitsu; Onishi, Shogo; Yokoyama, Tatsuya; Yoshida, Naruo; Fujimatsu, Takayoshi; Hirata, Hirokuni; Fukuda, Takeshi; Fukushima, Yasutsugu

    2015-01-01

    We report a rare case of anaphylaxis due to caffeine intake. A 27-year-old woman suffered her first episode of anaphylaxis and a positive skin prick test suggested that the anaphylaxis was due to an IgE-mediated hypersensitivity reaction to caffeine. She was diagnosed with caffeine allergy and has not had an allergic reaction after avoiding foods and drinks containing caffeine. Although caffeine is known to have antiallergic effects, this case shows that caffeine can be an allergen and cause ...

  5. MINORITATEA GERMANĂ DIN ROMÂNIA ÎNTRE DECLIN DEMOGRAPHIC ŞI ADAPTARE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WILFRIED SCHREIBER

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The German minority in Romania between demographic decline and adaptation. As most of the other national minorities in Romania, the German population declined by 40% between 2002 and 2011. The highest decreasing levels were registered in the counties and settlements where Germans had been colonized throughout the centuries, especially in Transylvania. Growth was only registered in Ilfov County due to the economic attractiveness. In 2011 there were still 11 towns with more than 500 German inhabitants and 14 rural municipalities with more than 100 Germans. The demographic setback determined adaptation measures, especially within the Democratic Forum of the Germans in Romania and the Evangelical Lutheran Church.

  6. [Declining birth rates as a cause of unemployment? Some remarks on the Gunther paradox].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, A

    1980-01-01

    Gunther (1931) regarded the fact that a diminishing future labor force due to lack of demand leads to increasing unemployment at the present time as a paradox. The presumed connection between declining birth rates and rising unemployment in contrast to a rising birth rate and declining unemployment in a transition period of about 15-20 years is called a Guenther paradox. The author tries to explain the Guenther paradox by means of a macrodemoeconomic model with disequilibrium on the labor market. Clearly there is a relationship between birth rate and unemployment. (author's)

  7. The growth and decline of cryonics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Sanders Stodolsky

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Cryogenic storage has become known as an alternative to burial. While a substantial fraction of the public finds cryonics acceptable, enrollment remains miniscule. One of the greatest unknowns is whether cryonics companies will be able to operate continuously until reanimation of those in storage becomes possible. Two failure modes are considered; organizational decline and political attack. The cryonics industry has adopted a strategy that implicitly targets atheist millionaires and alienates women. This is a result of neglecting science in its marketing efforts. American cryonics organizations have also incurred an avoidable political risk by refusing to use the funeral industry as a sales channel. Two alternative strategies are suggested that could minimize failure risk by reversing the stagnation of the industry. A “repackaging” of cryonics could accelerate growth and improve services, as well as the political position of the industry. This repackaging includes a restructuring of the channels for funding cryonics. Integration with the mainstream assumes using the funeral industry as a sales channel. While both political experiences and research results have made the need for these developments apparent, pioneers of the industry have resisted them.

  8. Population Genetic Aspects of Pollinator Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Packer

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available We reviewed the theory of conservation genetics, with special emphasis on the influence of haplodiploidy and other aspects of bee biology upon conservation genetic parameters. We then investigated the possibility that pollinator decline can be addressed in this way, using two meta-analytical approaches on genetic data from the Hymenoptera and the Lepidoptera. First, we compared levels of heterozygosity between the orders. As has been found previously, the haplodiploid Hymenoptera had markedly lower levels of genetic variation than the Lepidoptera. Bees had even lower levels, and bumble bees, in particular, often seemed almost monomorphic genetically. However, the statistically confounding effects of phylogeny render detailed interpretation of such data difficult. Second, we investigated patterns of gene flow among populations of these insects. Hymenoptera were far more likely to show genetic effects of population fragmentation than are Lepidoptera, even at similar geographic distances between populations. The reduced effective population sizes resulting from haplodiploidy probably contributed to this result. The proportion of species with low levels of gene flow did not vary among the different taxonomic groups within the Hymenoptera.

  9. Pharmacological interventions for cognitive decline in people with Down syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, Nuala; Hanratty, Jennifer; McShane, Rupert; Macdonald, Geraldine

    2015-10-29

    adults aged 20 to 29 years. Seven studies were conducted in either the USA or UK, one between Norway and the UK, and one in Japan. Follow-up periods in studies ranged from four weeks to two years. The reviewers judged all included studies to be at low or unclear risk of bias.Analyses indicate that for participants who received donepezil, scores in measures of cognitive functioning (standardised mean difference (SMD) 0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.27 to 1.13) and measures of behaviour (SMD 0.42, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.89) were similar to those who received placebo. However, participants who received donepezil were significantly more likely to experience an adverse event (odds ratio (OR) 0.32, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.62). The quality of this body of evidence was low. None of the included donepezil studies reported data for carer stress, institutional/home care, or death.For participants who received memantine, scores in measures of cognitive functioning (SMD 0.05, 95% CI -0.43 to 0.52), behaviour (SMD -0.17, 95% CI -0.46 to 0.11), and occurrence of adverse events (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.18 to 1.17) were similar to those who received placebo. The quality of this body of evidence was low. None of the included memantine studies reported data for carer stress, institutional/home care, or death.Due to insufficient data, it was possible to provide a narrative account only of the outcomes for simvastatin, antioxidants, and acetyl-L-carnitine. Results from one pilot study suggest that participants who received simvastatin may have shown a slight improvement in cognitive measures. Due to the low quality of the body of evidence in this review, it is difficult to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of any pharmacological intervention for cognitive decline in people with Down syndrome.

  10. Thinner cortex in patients with subjective cognitive decline is associated with steeper decline of memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Sander C J; Slot, Rosalinde E; Tijms, Betty M; Bouwman, Femke; Benedictus, Marije R; Overbeek, Jozefien M; Koene, Teddy; Vrenken, Hugo; Scheltens, Philip; Barkhof, Frederik; van der Flier, Wiesje M

    2018-01-01

    We aimed to investigate associations between regional cortical thickness and rate of decline over time in 4 cognitive domains in patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). We included 233 SCD patients with the total number of 654 neuropsychological assessments (median = 3, range = 2-8) and available baseline magnetic resonance imaging from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (125 males, age: 63 ± 9, Mini-Mental State Examination score: 28 ± 2). We assessed longitudinal cognitive functioning at baseline and follow-up in 4 cognitive domains (composite Z-scores): memory, attention, executive function, and language. Thickness (millimeter) was estimated using FreeSurfer for frontal, temporal, parietal, cingulate, and occipital cortices. We used linear mixed models to estimate effects of cortical thickness on cognitive performance (dependent variables). There were no associations between cortical thickness and baseline cognition, but a faster subsequent rate of memory loss was associated with thinner cortex of the frontal [β (SE) = 0.20 (0.07)], temporal [β (SE) = 0.18 (0.07)], and occipital [β (SE) = 0.22 (0.09)] cortices (all p cognitive decline related to neurodegenerative diseases, most prominently Alzheimer's disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Cognitive declines precede and predict functional declines in aging and Alzheimer's disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura B Zahodne

    Full Text Available To investigate the temporal ordering of cognitive and functional declines separately in older adults with or without Alzheimer's disease (AD.A community-based longitudinal study of aging and dementia in Northern Manhattan (Washington Heights/Hamilton Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project and a multicenter, clinic-based longitudinal study of prevalent AD at Columbia University Medical Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, and the Hôpital de la Salpêtrière in Paris, France (the Predictors Study.3,443 initially non-demented older adults (612 with eventual incident dementia and 517 patients with AD.Cognitive measures included the modified Mini-Mental State Exam and composite scores of memory and language derived from a standardized neuropsychological battery. Function was measured with the Blessed Dementia Rating Scale, completed by the participant (in the sample of non-demented older adults or an informant (in the sample of prevalent AD patients. Data were analyzed with autoregressive cross-lagged panel analysis.Cognitive scores more consistently predicted subsequent functional abilities than vice versa in non-demented older adults, participants with eventual incident dementia, and patients with prevalent AD.Cognitive declines appear to precede and cause functional declines prior to and following dementia diagnosis. Standardized neuropsychological tests are valid predictors of later functional changes in both non-demented and demented older adults.

  12. Subjective cognitive decline and fall risk in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Tashiro, Yuto; Nozaki, Yuma; Aoyama, Tomoki

    2018-05-01

    The association between subjective cognitive decline and falls has not been clearly determined. Our aim was to explore the effect of subjective cognitive decline on falls in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline. We included 470 older adults (mean age 73.6 ± 5.2; 329 women) living in the community and obtained data on fall history directly from the participants. Subjective cognitive decline was assessed using a self-administered question. Objective cognitive function was measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Statistical analyses were carried out separately for participants with objective cognitive decline and those without. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, among participants without objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls [OR 1.91; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-3.12; p = 0.01). Conversely, among participants with objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was negatively associated with falls (OR 0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.85, p = 0.04). The result suggests that the objective-subjective disparity may affect falls in community-dwelling older adults. The presence of subjective cognitive decline was significantly positively associated with falls among cognitively intact older adults. However, among their cognitively impaired peers, the absence of subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls.

  13. Soil fertility decline: definitions and assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, A.E.

    2006-01-01

    In permanent agricultural systems, soil fertility is maintained through applications of manure, other organic materials, inorganic fertilizers, lime, the inclusion of legumes in the cropping systems, or a combination of these. In many parts of the world the availability, use, and profitability of

  14. Enigmatic declines in bird numbers in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador may be a consequence of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John G. Blake

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Bird populations have declined in many parts of the world but most of those declines can be attributed to effects of human activities (e.g., habitat fragmentation; declines in areas unaffected by human activities are not common. We have been sampling bird populations at an undisturbed site in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador annually since 2001 using a combination of mist nets and direct observations on two 100-ha plots. Bird numbers fluctuated on both plots during the first 8 years but did not show a consistent pattern of change. Since about 2008, numbers of birds on both plots have declined; capture rates in 2014 were ∼40% less than at the start of the study and observation rates were ∼50% less. Both understory and canopy species declined in abundance. Overall, insectivores showed the most pronounced declines but declines varied among trophic groups. The period from 2008 onward also was a period of stronger La Niña events which, at this study site, are associated with increased rainfall. The mechanism for the declines is not known but likely reflects a combination of reduced reproductive success coupled with reduced survival associated with changing climate.

  15. Declining semen quality among south Indian infertile men: A retrospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S K Adiga

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : Male reproductive function has recently attracted increasing attention due to reports on time-related decline in semen quality. Furthermore, regional differences in the semen quality have also been reported. Aim : To investigate the semen quality among large cohort of infertile individuals at a regional level, in terms of the sperm concentration, total sperm motility, sperm morphology and incidence of azoospermia over a period of 13 years. Setting : University infertility clinic at Kasturba Hospital, Manipal which is a tertiary healthcare centre serving the general population. Design : Retrospective analysis. Materials and Methods: This includes a total of 7770 subjects who presented for semen analysis from 1993 to 2005. The data regarding ejaculate volume, sperm density, motility, morphology and the incidence of azoospermia were collected. Statistical Analysis Used : One way analysis of variance (ANOVA, regression analysis and Chi square analysis. Results : The average sperm density among infertile men during 2004-2005 was 26.61 ± 0.71 millions/mL which was significantly lower than the average sperm density observed in 1993-1994 (38.18 ± 1.46 millions/mL. Similar trend was also observed for sperm motility (47.14% motile sperms vs. 61.16% and normal sperm morphology (19.75% vs. 40.51%. Interestingly, the incidence of severe oligospermia (mean sperm density < 10 millions/mL observed in 2002-2005 and 1993-1997 demonstrated a significant inverse relationship ( P < 0.001. Conclusion : Our study provides the first evidence that the quality of human semen evaluated for infertility is deteriorating in the southern part of the India over the years, probably due to environmental, nutritional, life style or socioeconomic causes.

  16. Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

    2016-01-01

    Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

  17. The lognormal handwriter: learning, performing and declining.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Réjean ePlamondon

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The generation of handwriting is a complex neuromotor skill requiring the interaction of many cognitive processes. It aims at producing a message to be imprinted as an ink trace left on a writing medium. The generated trajectory of the pen tip is made up of strokes superimposed over time. The Kinematic Theory of rapid human movements and its family of lognormal models provide analytical representations of these strokes, often considered as the basic unit of handwriting. This paradigm has not only been experimentally confirmed in numerous predictive and physiologically significant tests but it has also been shown to be the ideal mathematical description for the impulse response of a neuromuscular system. This latter demonstration suggests that the lognormality of the velocity patterns can be interpreted as reflecting the behaviour of subjects who are in perfect control of their movements. To illustrate this interpretation, we present a short overview of the main concepts behind the Kinematic Theory and briefly describe how its models can be exploited, using various software tools, to investigate these ideal lognormal behaviors. We emphasize that the parameters extracted during various tasks can be used to analyze some underlying processes associated with their realization. To investigate the operational convergence hypothesis, we report on two original studies. First, we focus on the early steps of the motor learning process as seen as a converging behaviour toward the production of more precise lognormal patterns as young children practicing handwriting start to become more fluent writers. Second, we illustrate how aging affects handwriting by pointing out the increasing departure from the ideal lognormal behaviour as the control of the fine motricity begins to decline. Overall, the paper highlights this developmental process of merging toward a lognormal behaviour with learning, mastering this behaviour to succeed in performing a given task

  18. Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

    2009-09-01

    Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

  19. What has driven the decline of infant mortality in Kenya in the 2000s?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demombynes, Gabriel; Trommlerová, Sofia Karina

    2016-05-01

    Substantial declines in early childhood mortality have taken place in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya's infant mortality rate fell by 7.6 percent per year between 2003 and 2008, the fastest rate of decline among the 20 countries in the region for which recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data are available. The average rate of decline across all 20 countries was 3.6 percent per year. Among the possible causes of the observed decline in Kenya is a large-scale campaign to distribute insecticide-treated bednets (ITN) which started in 2004. A Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition using DHS data shows that the increased ownership of bednets in endemic malaria zones explains 79 percent of the decline in infant mortality. Although the Oaxaca-Blinder method cannot identify causal effects, given the wide evidence basis showing that ITN usage can reduce malaria prevalence and the huge surge in ITN ownership in Kenya, it is likely that the decomposition results reflect at least in part a causal effect. The widespread ownership of ITNs in areas of Kenya where malaria is rare suggests that better targeting of ITN provision could improve the cost-effectiveness of such programs. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. Maintenance and decline of physical activity during adolescence: insights from a qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filion Annie

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Purpose Better knowledge on why some individuals succeed in maintaining participation in physical activity throughout adolescence is needed to guide the development of effective interventions to increase and then maintain physical activity levels. Despite allowing an in-depth understanding, qualitative designs have infrequently been used to study physical activity maintenance. We explored factors contributing to the maintenance and the decline of physical activity during adolescence. Methods Questionnaires were administered to 515 grade 10-12 students. The Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents was used to determine physical activity level at the end of adolescence. An adapted version of this questionnaire was used to estimate physical activity in early adolescence. Among both genders, we identified participants who maintained a high level of physical activity since grade 7 and some whose activity level declined. For each category, groups of 10 students were randomly selected to take part in focus group discussions. Results Seven focus groups with 5 to 8 participants in each were held. Both maintainers and decliners associated physical activity with positive health outcomes. Maintenance of physical activity was associated with supportive social environments and heightened feelings of competence and attractiveness. A decline in physical activity was associated with negative social validation, poor social support and barriers related to access. Conclusions Although maintainers and decliners associate physical activity with similar themes, the experiences of both groups differ substantially with regards to those themes. Taking both perspectives in consideration could help improve interventions to increase and maintain physical activity levels of adolescents.

  1. Amphibian decline and extinction: what we know and what we need to learn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, James P

    2010-11-01

    For over 350 million yr, thousands of amphibian species have lived on Earth. Since the 1980s, amphibians have been disappearing at an alarming rate, in many cases quite suddenly. What is causing these declines and extinctions? In the modern era (post 1500) there are 6 leading causes of biodiversity loss in general, and all of these acting alone or together are responsible for modern amphibian declines: commercial use; introduced/exotic species that compete with, prey on, and parasitize native frogs and salamanders; land use change; contaminants; climate change; and infectious disease. The first 3 causes are historical in the sense that they have been operating for hundreds of years, although the rate of change due to each accelerated greatly after about the mid-20th century. Contaminants, climate change, and emerging infectious diseases are modern causes suspected of being responsible for the so-called 'enigmatic decline' of amphibians in protected areas. Introduced/exotic pathogens, land use change, and infectious disease are the 3 causes with a clear role in amphibian decline as well as extinction; thus far, the other 3 causes are only implicated in decline and not extinction. The present work is a review of the 6 causes with a focus on pathogens and suggested areas where new research is needed. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a chytrid fungus that is an emerging infectious disease causing amphibian population decline and species extinction. Historically, pathogens have not been seen as a major cause of extinction, but Bd is an exception, which is why it is such an interesting, important pathogen to understand. The late 20th and early 21st century global biodiversity loss is characterized as a sixth extinction event. Amphibians are a striking example of these losses as they disappear at a rate that greatly exceeds historical levels. Consequently, modern amphibian decline and extinction is a lens through which we can view the larger story of biodiversity

  2. The changing pattern and determinants of declining consanguinity in Jordan during 1990-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M Mazharul

    2018-03-01

    Consanguinity is a deep rooted cultural trait in Jordan. To examine the patterns and determinants of declining rates of consanguineous marriage in Jordan during 1990-2012 in the context of the changing pattern of socio-economic and demographic conditions. The data come from the 1990 and 2012 Jordan Population and Family Health Surveys (JPFHSs). A total of 6461 women in 1990 and 11,352 women in 2012 were successfully interviewed. Descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques were used for data analysis. Consanguinity was found to be widely practiced (35% in 2012) until recent times in Jordan. However, there has been a secular declining trend over the last few decades as the practice of consanguinity has declined from 56% in 1990 to 35% in 2012. Increasing age at marriage and female education, higher level of education of husbands, declining family size, increasing rate of urbanisation and female employment, exposure to mass media and higher economic status appeared as significant predictors of declining consanguinity in Jordan. The findings of this study support Goode's hypothesis of a decrease of consanguinity with modernisation. Although consanguinity is a deeply rooted cultural trend in Jordan, it is gradually losing ground due to modernisation and socio-demographic transition of the country.

  3. CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S. [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of); Woods, T. N. [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States); Hong, Sunhak, E-mail: gchoe@khu.ac.kr [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-10

    It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

  4. CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.; Hong, Sunhak

    2016-01-01

    It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

  5. Unmet need and fertility decline: a comparative perspective on prospects in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casterline, John B; El-Zeini, Laila O

    2014-06-01

    This study assesses how changes in unmet need for family planning have contributed to contemporary fertility declines, and the implications of this historical record for further fertility decline, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. We examine joint trends at the national level in fertility, unintended fertility, and unmet need. We bring unintended fertility into the analysis because the underlying rationale for reducing unmet need is to avert unintended pregnancies and births. The association over time between unmet need and fertility is investigated using survey data from 45 countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean from the mid-1970s to the present. The empirical analysis finds that reduction in unmet need, especially unmet need for limiting, is strongly associated with fertility decline in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Asia and North Africa. Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa is weakly associated with trends in unmet need (and satisfaction of demand). We propose that the stark regional difference is due to measurement problems and to the fundamentally different character of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, itself reflective of basic differences in pretransition reproductive regimes. © 2013 The Population Council, Inc.

  6. Exposure of harbour seals Phoca vitulina to Brucella in declining populations across Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kershaw, Joanna L; Stubberfield, Emma J; Foster, Geoffrey; Brownlow, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa J; Perrett, Lorraine L

    2017-09-20

    Since 2000 there has been a major decline in the abundance of Scottish harbour seals Phoca vitulina. The causes of the decline remain uncertain. The aim of this study was to establish the extent to which the seals in the regions of greatest decline have been exposed to Brucella, a bacterial pathogen that causes reproductive failure in terrestrial mammalian hosts. Tissues from dead seals collected between 1992 and 2013 were cultured for Brucella (n = 150). Serum samples collected from live capture-released seals (n = 343) between 1997 and 2012 were tested for Brucella antibodies using the Rose Bengal plate agglutination test (RBT) and a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA). In total, 16% of seals cultured had Brucella isolated from one or more tissues, but there were no pathological signs of infection. The cELISA results were more sensitive than the RBT results, showing that overall 25.4% of seals were seropositive, with the highest seroprevalence in juveniles. As there was no evidence of either a higher seroprevalence or higher circulating antibody levels in seropositive animals in the areas with the greatest declines, it was concluded that Brucella infection is likely not a major contributing factor to recent declines. However, the consistently high proportion of seals exposed to Brucella indicates possible endemicity in these populations, likely due to B. pinnipedialis, which has demonstrated a preference for pinniped hosts. Importantly, given the close proximity between seals, humans and livestock in many areas, there is the potential for cross-species infections.

  7. Steeper declines in forest photosynthesis than respiration explain age-driven decreases in forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jianwu; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Richardson, Andrew D; Kutsch, Werner; Janssens, Ivan A

    2014-06-17

    The traditional view of forest dynamics originated by Kira and Shidei [Kira T, Shidei T (1967) Jap J Ecol 17:70-87] and Odum [Odum EP (1969) Science 164(3877):262-270] suggests a decline in net primary productivity (NPP) in aging forests due to stabilized gross primary productivity (GPP) and continuously increased autotrophic respiration (Ra). The validity of these trends in GPP and Ra is, however, very difficult to test because of the lack of long-term ecosystem-scale field observations of both GPP and Ra. Ryan and colleagues [Ryan MG, Binkley D, Fownes JH (1997) Ad Ecol Res 27:213-262] have proposed an alternative hypothesis drawn from site-specific results that aboveground respiration and belowground allocation decreased in aging forests. Here, we analyzed data from a recently assembled global database of carbon fluxes and show that the classical view of the mechanisms underlying the age-driven decline in forest NPP is incorrect and thus support Ryan's alternative hypothesis. Our results substantiate the age-driven decline in NPP, but in contrast to the traditional view, both GPP and Ra decline in aging boreal and temperate forests. We find that the decline in NPP in aging forests is primarily driven by GPP, which decreases more rapidly with increasing age than Ra does, but the ratio of NPP/GPP remains approximately constant within a biome. Our analytical models describing forest succession suggest that dynamic forest ecosystem models that follow the traditional paradigm need to be revisited.

  8. Why older adults may decline offers of post-acute care services: A qualitative descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefcik, Justine S; Ritter, Ashley Z; Flores, Emilia J; Nock, Rebecca H; Chase, Jo-Ana D; Bradway, Christine; Potashnik, Sheryl; Bowles, Kathryn H

    The most common post-acute care (PAC) services available to patients after hospital discharge include home care, skilled nursing facilities, nursing homes, inpatient rehabilitation, and hospice. Patients who need PAC and receive services have better outcomes, however almost one-third of those offered services decline. Little research exists on PAC decision-making and why patients may decline services. This qualitative descriptive study explored the responses of thirty older adults to the question: "Can you, from the patient point of view, tell me why someone would not want post hospital care?" Three themes emerged. Participants may decline due to 1) previous negative experiences with PAC, or 2) a preference to be home. Some participants stated, "I'd be there" and would not decline services. Participants also discussed 3) why other patients might decline PAC which included patients' past experiences, lack of understanding/preconceived ideas, and preferences. Clinical implications include assessing patients' knowledge and experience before providing recommendations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Population decline in the Delta caribou herd with reference to other Alaskan herds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Valkenburg et al.

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available After growing continuously for nearly 15 years, the Delta caribou herd began to decline in 1989. Most other Interior Alaskan herds also began declining. In the Delta herd, and in other herds, the declines were caused primarily by high summer mortality of calves and increased natural mortality of adult females. Other minor causes included increased winter mortality of calves, and reduced parturition rates of 3-year-old and older females. The decline in the Delta herd also coincided with increased wolf (Canis lupus numbers, winters with deeper than normal snow, and warm summers. Mean body weight of annual samples of 10-month-old female calves was consistently low during the decline. Except in some of the smallest Interior Alaskan herds, we conclude that evidence for population regulation in Alaskan caribou is weak, and that herds are likely to fluctuate within a wide range of densities due to complex interactions of predation and weather. Unless wolf numbers are influenced by man, the size of a caribou herd in a given year is likely to be largely a function of its size during the previous population low and the number of years of favorable weather in the interim.

  10. Influence of early pH decline on calpain activity in porcine muscle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pomponio, Luigi; Ertbjerg, Per; Karlsson, Anders H

    2010-01-01

    myofibril fragmentation at 24 h post-mortem was observed, which was no longer evident in the later phase of the tenderization process. In conclusion, the rate of early pH decline influenced l-calpain activity and the rate but not the extent of myofibrillar degradation, suggesting an early effect......This study investigated the influence of post-mortem pH decline on calpain activity and myofibrillar degradation.From 80 pigs, 30 Longissimus dorsi (LD) muscles were selected on the basis of pH values at 3 h post-mortem and classified into groups of 10 as fast, intermediate and slow pH decline...... measured. A faster decrease in pH resulted in reduced level of l-calpain activity and increased autolysis of the enzyme, and hence an earlier loss of activity due to activation of l-calpain in muscles with a fast pH decline. Paralleling the l-calpain activation in muscles with a fast pH decline a higher...

  11. Ohia forest decline: its spread and severity in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwin Q. P. Petteys; Robert E. Burgan; Robert E. Nelson

    1975-01-01

    Ohia forest decline–its severity and rate of spread–was studied by aerial photographic techniques on a 197,000-acre (80,000-ha) portion of the island of Hawaii. In 1954, only 300 acres (121 ha) showed signs of severe decline; by 1972, the acreage of severely affected forest had increased to 85,200 acres (34,480 ha). Rate of decline and current severity were related to...

  12. What distinguishes passive recipients from active decliners of sales flyers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Orquin, Jacob Lund; Bech-Larsen, Tino

    2014-01-01

    While sales flyer ad spending in Denmark has increased over the last decade ,the proportion of consumers declining to receive such flyers has been ever-increasing. To address this paradox, attitudinal and behavioural factors distinguishing passive recipients from active decliners of sales flyers ...... on the Internet.To reach the decliners, retailers could focus on the possibilities of the Internet, but to stop the trend of escalating numbers of decliners, retailers will have to address the perceived inconvenience and uselessness of sales flyers....

  13. Evaluating the Association between Diabetes, Cognitive Decline and Dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omorogieva Ojo

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to review the association between diabetes mellitus, cognitive decline and dementia, including the effects of cognitive decline and dementia on self management of diabetes. This is a literature review of primary research articles. A number of contemporary research articles that met the inclusion criteria were selected for this review paper. These articles were selected using a number of search strategies and electronic databases, such as EBSCOhost Research and SwetsWise databases. The duration of diabetes, glycated haemoglobin levels and glycaemic fluctuations were associated with cognitive decline and dementia. Similarly, hypoglycaemia was significantly related to increased risk of developing cognitive decline and dementia. Furthermore, cognitive decline and dementia were associated with poorer diabetes management. There is evidence of the association between diabetes, cognitive decline and dementia including the shared pathogenesis between diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease. In addition, the self management of diabetes is affected by dementia and cognitive decline. It could be suggested that the association between diabetes and dementia is bidirectional with the potential to proceed to a vicious cycle. Further studies are needed in order to fully establish the relationship between diabetes, cognitive decline and dementia. Patients who have diabetes and dementia could benefit from structured education strategies, which should involve empowerment programmes and lifestyle changes. The detection of cognitive decline should highlight the need for education strategies.

  14. Subsidence due to Excessive Groundwater Withdrawal in the San Joaquin Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett, F.; Harter, T.; Sneed, M.

    2011-12-01

    Francis Corbett1, Thomas Harter1 and Michelle Sneed2 1Department of Land Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis. 2U.S. Geological Survey Western Remote Sensing and Visualization Center, Sacramento. Abstract: Groundwater development within the Central Valley of California began approximately a century ago. Water was needed to supplement limited surface water supplies for the burgeoning population and agricultural industries, especially within the arid but fertile San Joaquin Valley. Groundwater levels have recovered only partially during wet years from drought-induced lows creating long-term groundwater storage overdraft. Surface water deliveries from Federal and State sources led to a partial alleviation of these pressure head declines from the late 1960s. However, in recent decades, surface water deliveries have declined owing to increasing environmental pressures, whilst water demands have remained steady. Today, a large portion of the San Joaquin Valley population, and especially agriculture, rely upon groundwater. Groundwater levels are again rapidly declining except in wet years. There is significant concern that subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal, first observed at a large scale in the middle 20th century, will resume as groundwater resources continue to be depleted. Previous subsidence has led to problems such as infrastructure damage and flooding. To provide a support tool for groundwater management on a naval air station in the southern San Joaquin Valley (Tulare Lake Basin), a one-dimensional MODFLOW subsidence model covering the period 1925 to 2010 was developed incorporating extensive reconstruction of historical subsidence and water level data from various sources. The stratigraphy used for model input was interpreted from geophysical logs and well completion reports. Gaining good quality data proved problematic, and often values needed to be estimated. In part, this was due to the historical lack of awareness/understanding of

  15. DYSTOCIA DUE TO SOFT TISSUE

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCarle, Donald W.

    1954-01-01

    In dystocia caused by abnormal conditions of the soft parts, the etiologic changes may be either in the genital tissues or in adjacent soft structures. Broadly, the conditions causing the difficulty may be grouped as follows: (1) anomalies or congenital modifications; (2) tumors; (3) modifications due to age, accident or surgical operations; (4) modification of the expulsive forces; (5) abnormalities of the products of conception. Often in such circumstances cesarean section is necessary. Sometimes when tumor is present it can be removed before it interferes with delivery, but decision to excise the growth must be guided by such factors as the location of the lesion and the stage of gestation. This would determine to what extent the maintenance of pregnancy would be jeopardized by surgical intervention before term. PMID:13190430

  16. Estimating Global Burden of Disease due to congenital anomaly

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyle, Breidge; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal...... the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention....

  17. Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fancourt, Bronwyn A; Hawkins, Clare E; Cameron, Elissa Z; Jones, Menna E; Nicol, Stewart C

    2015-01-01

    The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance

  18. Trouble in the aquatic world: How wildlife professionals are battling amphibian declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Deanna H.; Chestnut, Tara E.

    2014-01-01

    A parasitic fungus, similar to the one that caused the extinction of numerous tropical frog and toad species, is killing salamanders in Europe. Scientists first identified the fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, in 2013 as the culprit behind the death of fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra) in the Netherlands (Martel et al. 2013) and are now exploring its potential impact to other species. Although the fungus, which kills the amphibians by infecting their skin, has not yet spread to the United States, researchers believe it’s only a matter of time before it does and, when that happens, the impact on salamander populations could be devastating (Martel et al. 2014).Reports of worldwide declines of amphibians began a quarter of a century ago (Blaustein & Wake 1990). Globally, some amphibian population declines occurred in the late 1950s and early 1960s, and declining trends continued in North America (Houlahan et al. 2000). In the earlier years, population declines were attributed primarily to overharvest due to unregulated supply of species such as the northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) for educational use (Dodd 2013). In later years, however, causes of declines were less evident. In 1989, herpetologists at the First World Congress of Herpetology traded alarming stories of losses across continents and in seemingly protected landscapes, making it clear that amphibian population declines were a “global phenomenon.” In response to these reports, in 1991, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) established the Declining Amphibian Populations Task Force to better understand the scale and scope of global amphibian declines. Unfortunately, the absence of long-term monitoring data and targeted studies made it difficult for the task force to compile information.Today, according to AmphibiaWeb.org, there are 7,342 amphibian species in the world — double the number since the first alerts of declines — making the situation

  19. UV-B Radiation Contributes to Amphibian Population Declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew

    2007-05-01

    UV-B (280-315 nm) radiation is the most significant biologically damaging radiation at the terrestrial surface. At the organismal level, UV-B radiation can slow growth rates, cause immune dysfunction and result in sublethal damage. UV-B radiation can lead to mutations and cell death. Over evolutionary time, UV radiation has been an important stressor on living organisms. Natural events, including impacts from comets and asteroids, volcanic activity, supernova explosions and solar flares, can cause large-scale ozone depletion with accompanying increases in UV radiation. However, these natural events are transient. Moreover, the amount of ozone damage due to natural events depends upon a number of variables, including the magnitude of the event. This is different from modern-day human-induced production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other chemicals that deplete stratospheric ozone continuously, resulting in long-term increases in UV-B radiation at the surface of the earth. We will briefly review the effects of UV-B exposure in one group of aquatic organisms_amphibians. UV-B has been implicated as a possible factor contributing to global declines and range reductions in amphibian populations.

  20. State of pine decline in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lori Eckhardt; Mary Anne Sword Sayer; Don Imm

    2010-01-01

    Pine decline is an emerging forest health issue in the southeastern United States. Observations suggest pine decline is caused by environmental stress arising from competition, weather, insects and fungi, anthropogenic disturbances, and previous management. The problem is most severe for loblolly pine on sites that historically supported longleaf pine, are highly...

  1. The decline in phytoplankton biomass and prawn catches in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The world's oceans have seen significant declines in phytoplankton-the primary food source in the marine environment. This decline in primary producers is likely to impact the food chain and functions of most coastal and marine ecosystems. Despite being one of the most productive marine fishing grounds in the Western ...

  2. Decline of Ohia (Metrosideros polymorpha) in Hawaii: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles S. Hodges; Ken T. Adee; John D. Stein; Hulton B. Wood; Robert D. Doty

    1986-01-01

    Portions of the ohia (Metrosideros polymorpha) forests on the windward slopes of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea on the island of Hawaii began dying in 1952. Little mortality has occurred since 1972. About 50,000 ha are affected by the decline. Individual trees exhibit several symptoms, from slow progressive dieback to rapid death. Seven types of decline...

  3. Alarming decline and range reduction of the highly threatened Great ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A Great Bustard Otis tarda survey carried out in spring 2015 in Morocco confirmed the decline of this highly endangered population. Bustards were only seen at two of the seven leks occupied ten years ago. The total number of birds counted was 40-44, which represents a 40% decline over the last decade. The sex-ratio ...

  4. Developmental decline in height growth in Douglas-fir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara J. Bond; Nicole M. Czarnomski; Clifton Cooper; Michael E. Day; Michael S. Greenwood

    2007-01-01

    The characteristic decline in height growth that occurs over a tree's lifespan is often called "age-related decline." But is the reduction in height growth in aging trees a function of age or of size? We grafted shoot tips across different ages and sizes of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) trees to determine whether...

  5. Does Child Labor Decline with Improving Economic Status?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, Eric V.

    2005-01-01

    The rapid economic growth of Vietnam provides an interesting insight into the sharp decline in child labor. A study of the rising economic status of the population across Vietnam shows that children returned to school or stopped working as their family incomes grew. The decline in child labor is steep in poor households as they emerged from…

  6. The decline in winter excess mortality in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kunst, A. E.; Looman, C. W.; Mackenbach, J. P.

    1991-01-01

    In most countries, numbers of deaths rise considerably during the winter season. This winter excess in mortality has, however, been declining during recent decades. The causes of this decline are hardly known. This paper attempts to derive a number of hypotheses on the basis of a detailed

  7. Serum cholesterol decline and depression in the postpartum period

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dam, van R.M.; Schuit, A.J.; Schouten, E.G.; Vader, H.L.; Pop, V.J.M.

    1999-01-01

    We examined the relation between total serum cholesterol decline and depression in the postpartum period in a prospective study of 266 Dutch women, who were followed until 34 weeks after delivery. The decline in serum cholesterol between week 32 of pregnancy and week 10 postpartum was similar for

  8. Serum cholesterol decline and depression in the postpartum period

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dam, R M; Schuit, A.J.; Schouten, E G; Vader, H L; Pop, V.J.

    We examined the relation between total serum cholesterol decline and depression in the postpartum period in a prospective study of 266 Dutch women, who were followed until 34 weeks after delivery. The decline in serum cholesterol between week 32 of pregnancy and week 10 postpartum was similar for

  9. Ophiostomatoid fungi associated with declined Pinus pinaster stands in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo Álvarez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: We studied the presence of fungi and distribution patterns in relation to the health status of declining Pinus pinaster trees. Area of study: Trees in two declining stands in Central Spain were allotted to three declining classes. Material and Methods: Trees in two declining stands in Central Spain were allotted to three declining classes (healthy, declining and recently dead and 3 trees of each class were felled in each stand. Wood slides (phloem and xylem were taken at six positions along the trees and samples collected from fungal identification. Main results: A total of 21 fungal taxa were isolated and identified; eleven of these species belonged to the Ophiostomatoid group. Ophiostoma minus was the most frequently isolated fungus and was identified in 22% of the samples, mainly associated to dead and diseased trees. Research highlights: Together these results suggest a putative association of O. minor with the decline in this area, and thus we suggest paying more attention to this fungus as a potential agent of decline in P. pinaster stands.

  10. Rate of pulmonary function decline in South African children with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background. Pulmonary function tests (PFTs) objectively measure the extent and progression of cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease. The rate of lung function decline in developing countries has not previously been studied. Aim. To investigate the average annual rates of pulmonary function decline in South African children ...

  11. Is the gender wage gap declining in the Netherlands?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Meer, P.H.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper I try to answer the question whether the gender wage gap in the Netherlands is declining. I posed this question because on several other indicators labour market differences between men and women in the Netherlands declined or disappeared altogether. First of all the labour market

  12. Did the Decline in Social Connections Depress Americans' Happiness?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, Stefano; Bilancini, Ennio; Pugno, Maurizio

    2013-01-01

    During the last 30 years US citizens experienced, on average, a decline in reported happiness, social connections, and confidence in institutions. We show that a remarkable portion of the decrease in happiness is predicted by the decline in social connections and confidence in institutions. We carry out our investigation in three steps. First, we…

  13. Identification of older hospitalized patients at risk for functional decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogerduijn, J.G.

    2011-01-01

    Between 30% and 60% of older patients experience functional decline after hospitalization, resulting in a decline in health-related quality of life and autonomy. This is associated with increased risk of readmission, nursing home placement and mortality, increased length of hospital stay and

  14. Assessment of Loblolly Pine Decline in Central Alabama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan J. Hess; William J. Otrosina; Emily A. Carter; Jim R. Steinman; John P. Jones; Lori G. Eckhardt; Ann M. Weber; Charles H. Walkinshaw

    2002-01-01

    Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) decline has been prevalent on upland sites of central Alabama since the 1960's. The purpose of this study was to compare Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) standards and protocols with root health evaluations relative to crown, stem, and site measurements. Thirty-nine 1/6 acre plots were established on loblolly decline...

  15. Decline of functional capacity in healthy aging workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soer, Remko; Brouwer, Sandra; Geertzen, Jan H; van der Schans, Cees; Groothoff, Johan W.; Reneman, Michiel F

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: (1) To study the natural decline in functional capacity (FC) of healthy aging workers; (2) to compare FC to categories of workload; and (3) to study the differences in decline between men and women. DESIGN: Cross-sectional design. SETTING: A rehabilitation center at a university medical

  16. Agricultural Decline and Access to Food in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabatabai, Hamid

    1988-01-01

    Examines the causes and impacts of agricultural decline in Ghana. Presents a macroeconomic overview and discusses the nature of decline. Emphasizes the roles of prices and migration. Examines changes in incomes and access to food as both a result and a cause of poor performance in agriculture. (CH)

  17. Predicting cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease: an integrated analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lopez, Oscar L; Schwam, Elias; Cummings, Jeffrey

    2010-01-01

    Numerous patient- and disease-related factors increase the risk of rapid cognitive decline in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). The ability of pharmacological treatment to attenuate this risk remains undefined.......Numerous patient- and disease-related factors increase the risk of rapid cognitive decline in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). The ability of pharmacological treatment to attenuate this risk remains undefined....

  18. AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

  19. Prognostic Factors for Cognitive Decline After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benedictus, M.R.; Hochart, A.; Rossi, C.; Boulouis, G.; Henon, H.; van der Flier, W.M.; Cordonnier, C.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose-Stroke and dementia are closely related, but no prospective study ever focused on poststroke cognitive decline in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We aimed to determine prognostic factors for cognitive decline in patients with ICH. Methods-We prospectively

  20. The canary in the coalmine; bee declines as an indicator of environmental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulson, Dave; Nicholls, Elizabeth

    2016-09-01

    Bee declines have received much attention of late, but there is considerable debate and confusion as to the extent, significance and causes of declines. In part, this reflects conflation of data for domestic honeybees, numbers of which are largely driven by economic factors, with those for wild bees, many of which have undergone marked range contractions but for the majority of which we have no good data on population size. There is no doubt that bees are subject to numerous pressures in the modern world. The abundance and diversity of flowers has declined along with availability of suitable nest sites, bees are chronically exposed to cocktails of agrochemicals, and they are simultaneously exposed to novel parasites and pathogens accidentally spread by humans. Climate change is likely to exacerbate these problems in the future, particularly for cool- climate specialists such as bumblebees. Stressors do not act in isolation; for example pesticide exposure can impair both detoxification mechanisms and immune responses, rendering bees more susceptible to parasites. It seems certain that chronic exposure to multiple, interacting stressors is driving honeybee colony losses and declines of wild pollinators. Bees have a high profile and so their travails attract attention, but these same stressors undoubtedly bear upon other wild organisms, many of which are not monitored and have few champions. Those wild insects for which we do have population data (notably butterflies and moths) are overwhelmingly also in decline. We argue that bee declines are indicators of pervasive and ongoing environmental damage that is likely to impact broadly on biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides.

  1. Participation in organised sports does not slow declines in physical activity during adolescence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O'Loughlin Jennifer

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Among youth, participation in extracurricular physical activities at school and organised physical activities in the community is associated with higher physical activity levels. The objective was to determine if participation in organised physical activities during early adolescence protects against declines in physical activity levels during adolescence. Methods Every 3 months for 5 years, students initially in grade 7 (aged 12–13 years completed a 7-day physical activity recall and provided data on the number and type of (extracurricular physical activities organised at school and in the community in which they took part. To study rates of decline in physical activity, only adolescents who reported an average of ≥5 moderate-vigorous physical activity sessions per week in grade 7 (n = 1028 were retained for analyses. They were categorised as to whether or not they were involved in organised physical activities in grade 7. We used generalized estimating equation Poisson regression to compare the rate of decline in number of moderate-vigorous physical activity sessions per week during adolescence between initially physically active students who participated in organised physical activity in grade 7 and those who did not. Results In grade 7, about 87% of physically active adolescents reported taking part in at least one organised physical activity. Compared to active adolescents not involved in organised physical activities, baseline involvement in physical activity was 42% (95% CI 26–59% higher among those involved in organised physical activity (mean number of moderate-vigorous physical activity sessions per week = 14.6 ± 13.1 vs 10.4 ± 9.0. Physical activity declined by 8% per year in both groups. Results were similar in analyses that examined the effect of school or community-based physical activities separately. Conclusion Although participation in organised physical activities during early adolescence is

  2. Declining Use of Wild Resources by Indigenous Peoples of the Ecuadorian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Clark L; Bozigar, Matthew; Bilsborrow, Richard E

    2015-02-01

    Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and there is evidence of a decline in resource quality. Multilevel statistical models additionally reveal that household and community characteristics such as ethnicity, demographic characteristics, wealth, livelihood diversification, access to forest, participation in conservation programs and exposure to external markets are significant predictors of wild product harvesting. These characteristics have changed over time but cannot account for declining participation in resource harvesting. This finding suggests that participation is declining due to changes in the regional-scale social and economic context, including urbanization and the expansion of government infrastructure and services. The lesson for conservationists is that macro-scale social and economic conditions can drive reductions in wild product harvesting even in the absence of successful conservation interventions.

  3. Ovarian fluid mediates the temporal decline in sperm viability in a fish with sperm storage.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clelia Gasparini

    Full Text Available A loss of sperm viability and functionality during sperm transfer and storage within the female reproductive tract can have important fitness implications by disrupting fertilization and impairing offspring development and survival. Consequently, mechanisms that mitigate the temporal decline in sperm function are likely to be important targets of selection. In many species, ovarian fluid is known to regulate and maintain sperm quality. In this paper, we use the guppy Poecilia reticulata, a highly polyandrous freshwater fish exhibiting internal fertilization and sperm storage, to determine whether ovarian fluid (OF influences the decline in sperm viability (the proportion of live sperm in the ejaculate over time and whether any observed effects depend on male sexual ornamentation. To address these questions we used a paired experimental design in which ejaculates from individual males were tested in vitro both in presence and absence of OF. Our results revealed that the temporal decline in sperm viability was significantly reduced in the presence of OF compared to a saline control. This finding raises the intriguing possibility that OF may play a role in mediating the decline in sperm quality due to the deleterious effects of sperm ageing, although other possible explanations for this observation are discussed. Interestingly, we also show that the age-related decline in sperm viability was contingent on male sexual ornamentation; males with relatively high levels of iridescence (indicating higher sexual attractiveness exhibited a more pronounced decline in sperm viability over time than their less ornamented counterparts. This latter finding offers possible insights into the functional basis for the previously observed trade-off between these key components of pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection.

  4. Forest decline, natural and technically generated radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teufel, D.

    1983-06-01

    The question investigated is whether the radioactive rare gases emanating from nuclear plants are causative or participate in the triggering of forest disease. For one thing, a chemical reaction could be responsible for such an effect exerted by these artificial radioactive effluents. However, a calculation shows the concentration of radionuclides, respectively, in this case, their decomposition products, to be by many orders of magnitude smaller than other constituents in air; so a chemical reaction of this kind may be excluded. For the other part, rare gases might contribute to forest damage by their radioactive decomposition and late physical, chemical, and biological effects. In this connection, a detailed analysis is made of the comparability of natural radioactivity with radioactivity generated by nuclear plants. A possible contribution towards the total stress situation of forests (chemical air pollution, natural radioactivity, artificially produced radioactive rare gases, weather conditions and conditions arising from forest management and the like) would amount to a proportion smaller than 1/1000 considering natural radioactivity as a possible stress factor only. (orig.) [de

  5. Food limitation of sea lion pups and the decline of forage off central and southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClatchie, Sam; Field, John; Thompson, Andrew R.; Gerrodette, Tim; Lowry, Mark; Fiedler, Paul C.; Watson, William; Nieto, Karen M.; Vetter, Russell D.

    2016-01-01

    California sea lions increased from approximately 50 000 to 340 000 animals in the last 40 years, and their pups are starving and stranding on beaches in southern California, raising questions about the adequacy of their food supply. We investigated whether the declining sea lion pup weight at San Miguel rookery was associated with changes in abundance and quality of sardine, anchovy, rockfish and market squid forage. In the last decade off central California, where breeding female sea lions from San Miguel rookery feed, sardine and anchovy greatly decreased in biomass, whereas market squid and rockfish abundance increased. Pup weights fell as forage food quality declined associated with changes in the relative abundances of forage species. A model explained 67% of the variance in pup weights using forage from central and southern California and 81% of the variance in pup weights using forage from the female sea lion foraging range. A shift from high to poor quality forage for breeding females results in food limitation of the pups, ultimately flooding animal rescue centres with starving sea lion pups. Our study is unusual in using a long-term, fishery-independent dataset to directly address an important consequence of forage decline on the productivity of a large marine predator. Whether forage declines are environmentally driven, are due to a combination of environmental drivers and fishing removals, or are due to density-dependent interactions between forage and sea lions is uncertain. However, declining forage abundance and quality was coherent over a large area (32.5–38° N) for a decade, suggesting that trends in forage are environmentally driven. PMID:27069651

  6. Blood dendritic cell frequency declines in idiopathic Parkinson's disease and is associated with motor symptom severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciaramella, Antonio; Salani, Francesca; Bizzoni, Federica; Pontieri, Francesco E; Stefani, Alessandro; Pierantozzi, Mariangela; Assogna, Francesca; Caltagirone, Carlo; Spalletta, Gianfranco; Bossù, Paola

    2013-01-01

    The role of inflammation in Parkinson's Disease (PD) is well appreciated, but its underlying mechanisms are still unclear. Our objective was to determine whether dendritic cells (DC), a unique type of migratory immune cells that regulate immunological response and inflammation have an impact on PD. In a case-control study including 80 PD patients and 80 age- and gender-matched healthy control subjects, the two main blood subsets of plasmacytoid and myeloid DC were defined by flow cytometry analysis. Clinical evaluation of subjects consisting of cognition and depression assessment was performed using the Mini Mental State Examination and the Beck Depression Inventory. The severity of motor symptoms was measured using the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale-Part III. Comparison between patient and control DC measures and their relationships with clinical assessments were evaluated.The following main results were obtained: 1) the level of circulating DC (mainly the myeloid subset) was significantly reduced in PD patients in comparison with healthy controls; 2) after controlling for depressive and cognitive characteristics, the frequency of myeloid DC was confirmed as one of the independent determinants of PD; 3) the number of both myeloid and plasmacytoid DC was negatively associated with motor symptom severity. Overall, the decline of blood DC, perhaps due to the recruitment of immune cells to the site of disease-specific lesions, can be considered a clue of the immune alteration that characterizes PD, suggesting innovative exploitations of DC monitoring as a clinically significant tool for PD treatment. Indeed, this study suggests that reduced peripheral blood DC are a pathologically-relevant factor of PD and also displays the urgency to better understand DC role in PD for unraveling the immune system contribution to disease progression and thus favoring the development of innovative therapies ideally based on immunomodulation.

  7. Blood dendritic cell frequency declines in idiopathic Parkinson's disease and is associated with motor symptom severity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Ciaramella

    Full Text Available The role of inflammation in Parkinson's Disease (PD is well appreciated, but its underlying mechanisms are still unclear. Our objective was to determine whether dendritic cells (DC, a unique type of migratory immune cells that regulate immunological response and inflammation have an impact on PD. In a case-control study including 80 PD patients and 80 age- and gender-matched healthy control subjects, the two main blood subsets of plasmacytoid and myeloid DC were defined by flow cytometry analysis. Clinical evaluation of subjects consisting of cognition and depression assessment was performed using the Mini Mental State Examination and the Beck Depression Inventory. The severity of motor symptoms was measured using the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale-Part III. Comparison between patient and control DC measures and their relationships with clinical assessments were evaluated.The following main results were obtained: 1 the level of circulating DC (mainly the myeloid subset was significantly reduced in PD patients in comparison with healthy controls; 2 after controlling for depressive and cognitive characteristics, the frequency of myeloid DC was confirmed as one of the independent determinants of PD; 3 the number of both myeloid and plasmacytoid DC was negatively associated with motor symptom severity. Overall, the decline of blood DC, perhaps due to the recruitment of immune cells to the site of disease-specific lesions, can be considered a clue of the immune alteration that characterizes PD, suggesting innovative exploitations of DC monitoring as a clinically significant tool for PD treatment. Indeed, this study suggests that reduced peripheral blood DC are a pathologically-relevant factor of PD and also displays the urgency to better understand DC role in PD for unraveling the immune system contribution to disease progression and thus favoring the development of innovative therapies ideally based on immunomodulation.

  8. Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph O Ogutu

    Full Text Available There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya's land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72-88% and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson's gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy's zebra and waterbuck in Kenya's rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2% but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%, camels (13.1% and donkeys (6.7% evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011-2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977-1980. Most of Kenya's wildlife (ca. 30% occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total "national" wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate wildlife

  9. Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, Joseph O.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Said, Mohamed Y.; Ojwang, Gordon O.; Njino, Lucy W.; Kifugo, Shem C.; Wargute, Patrick W.

    2016-01-01

    There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya’s land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72–88%) and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson’s gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy’s zebra and waterbuck in Kenya’s rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2%) but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%), camels (13.1%) and donkeys (6.7%) evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011–2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977–1980. Most of Kenya’s wildlife (ca. 30%) occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total “national” wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate

  10. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W; Packer, Craig

    2015-12-01

    We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded ∼ 500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.

  11. Functional range of movement of the hand: declination angles to reachable space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Hai Trieu; Pathirana, Pubudu N; Caelli, Terry

    2014-01-01

    The measurement of the range of hand joint movement is an essential part of clinical practice and rehabilitation. Current methods use three finger joint declination angles of the metacarpophalangeal, proximal interphalangeal and distal interphalangeal joints. In this paper we propose an alternate form of measurement for the finger movement. Using the notion of reachable space instead of declination angles has significant advantages. Firstly, it provides a visual and quantifiable method that therapists, insurance companies and patients can easily use to understand the functional capabilities of the hand. Secondly, it eliminates the redundant declination angle constraints. Finally, reachable space, defined by a set of reachable fingertip positions, can be measured and constructed by using a modern camera such as Creative Senz3D or built-in hand gesture sensors such as the Leap Motion Controller. Use of cameras or optical-type sensors for this purpose have considerable benefits such as eliminating and minimal involvement of therapist errors, non-contact measurement in addition to valuable time saving for the clinician. A comparison between using declination angles and reachable space were made based on Hume's experiment on functional range of movement to prove the efficiency of this new approach.

  12. Disentangling the effects of date, individual, and territory quality on the seasonal decline in fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pärt, Tomas; Knape, Jonas; Low, Matthew; Öberg, Meit; Arlt, Debora

    2017-08-01

    The seasonal timing of reproduction is a major fitness factor in many organisms. Commonly, individual fitness declines with time in the breeding season. We investigated three suggested but rarely tested hypotheses for this seasonal fitness decline: (1) time per se (date hypothesis), (2) late breeders are of lower quality than early ones (individual quality hypothesis), and (3) late breeders are breeding at poorer territories than early breeders (territory quality hypothesis). We used Bayesian variance component analyses to examine reproductive output (breeding success, number fledged, and number of recruits) from repeated observations of female Northern Wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) and individual territories from a 20-yr population study. The major part of the observed seasonal decline in reproductive output seemed to be driven by date-related effects, whereas female age and territory type (i.e., known indicators of temporary quality) contributed to a smaller degree. Other, persistent effects linked to individual and territory identity did not show any clear patterns on the seasonal decline in reproductive output. To better disentangle the quality effects (persistent and temporary) of individual and territory from effects caused by the deterioration of the environment we suggest a protocol combining experimental manipulation of breeding time with a variance-covariance partitioning method used here. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  13. Reproductive health laws and fertility decline in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlay, Jocelyn E; Fox, Ashley M

    2013-11-01

    An unresolved debate in demography concerns the causal sequence between the supply of contraception and the demand for smaller families in fertility decline. Through a mixed-methods approach, we explored the effect of a sudden increase in access to legal abortion on subsequent fertility decline when Ghana's criminal code was amended in 1985. Using Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys, we constructed a panel of women aged 15-34 years and undertook a spline regression analysis to examine the effect of legal changes in 1985 and fertility decline controlling for social determinants of fertility. In addition, we conducted 17 key informant interviews (KIIs) to understand the reasons for the legal change and competing explanations for fertility decline. Multivariate results indicated that the timing of the liberalization of the abortion law coincided with the onset of Ghana's fertility decline. The KIIs indicated that the reasons for the liberalization of reproductive health laws were in response to famine and physician advocacy. While the timing of the abortion law liberalization coincided with the fertility decline in Ghana, we are unable to decouple the effect of the legal change from the effects of a severe famine that affected the region at the same time. Further research on documented and undocumented abortion in Ghana should be conducted to validate the contribution of legal abortion to fertility decline. © 2013.

  14. Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C Guilherme; Toledo, Luís Felipe

    2017-02-08

    The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd 's global emergence , further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd -screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd -infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979-1987). We also found that clusters of Bd -positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. © 2017 The Author(s).

  15. Falling teen pregnancy, birthrates: what's behind the declines?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, P

    1998-10-01

    About half of the almost 1 million US teenagers who become pregnant each year carry their pregnancies to term and give birth. However, after years of steady increases, teen birthrates in the US are lower and pregnancy rates have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years. Teenage sexual activity is also declining. Over the period 1991-96, the birthrate in the US among teens declined from the 20-year high of 62.1 births/1000 females aged 15-19 to 54.4/1000. This 12% decline comes after a 24% increase in the birthrate between 1986 and 1991. Declines in the teen birthrate were observed for the nation overall, as well as in each state, ranging from 6% in Alabama to 29% in Alaska. The teen birthrate among Blacks declined 21% to reach a record low of 91.4/1000 in 1996, while the rate for Hispanic teens barely changed during 1991-95, but eventually declined 5% during 1995-96 to 101.8/1000. The birthrate among non-Hispanic White teens declined 9% during the period to 48.1/1000, while the birthrate for teens aged 15-17 fell 13% during the period and 9% for 18-19 year olds. Pregnancy rates among women aged 15-19 years declined 14% between 1990 and 1995, to 101.1/1000, the lowest level since the mid-1970s. Although researchers are unsure why teen pregnancy and birthrates have fallen, recent survey data suggest that the declines have occurred because both fewer teens are having sex and more sexually active adolescents are using contraception.

  16. Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C. Guilherme

    2017-01-01

    The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd's global emergence, further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd-screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd-infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979–1987). We also found that clusters of Bd-positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. PMID:28179514

  17. Tracking lichen community composition changes due to declining air quality over the last century: the Nash legacy in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer Riddell; Sarah Jovan; Pamela E. Padgett; Ken. Sweat

    2011-01-01

    Southern California's South Coast Air Basin includes the heavily urbanized Los Angeles and Orange counties, the inland urban and suburban areas, and the surrounding mountain ranges. Historically high air pollution makes the region a natural laboratory for investigating human impacts on natural systems. Regional lichen distribution records from the early 1900s...

  18. Effect of passive acoustic sampling methodology on detecting bats after declines from white nose syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Laci S.; Ford, W. Mark; Dobony, Christopher A.; Britzke, Eric R.

    2014-01-01

    Concomitant with the emergence and spread of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and precipitous decline of many bat species in North America, natural resource managers need modified and/or new techniques for bat inventory and monitoring that provide robust occupancy estimates. We used Anabat acoustic detectors to determine the most efficient passive acoustic sampling design for optimizing detection probabilities of multiple bat species in a WNS-impacted environment in New York, USA. Our sampling protocol included: six acoustic stations deployed for the entire duration of monitoring as well as a 4 x 4 grid and five transects of 5-10 acoustic units that were deployed for 6-8 night sample durations surveyed during the summers of 2011-2012. We used Program PRESENCE to determine detection probability and site occupancy estimates. Overall, the grid produced the highest detection probabilities for most species because it contained the most detectors and intercepted the greatest spatial area. However, big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) and species not impacted by WNS were detected easily regardless of sampling array. Endangered Indiana (Myotis sodalis) and little brown (Myotis lucifugus) and tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) showed declines in detection probabilities over our study, potentially indicative of continued WNS-associated declines. Identification of species presence through efficient methodologies is vital for future conservation efforts as bat populations decline further due to WNS and other factors.   

  19. Neurodegenerative properties of chronic pain: cognitive decline in patients with chronic pancreatitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marijtje L A Jongsma

    Full Text Available Chronic pain has been associated with impaired cognitive function. We examined cognitive performance in patients with severe chronic pancreatitis pain. We explored the following factors for their contribution to observed cognitive deficits: pain duration, comorbidity (depression, sleep disturbance, use of opioids, and premorbid alcohol abuse. The cognitive profiles of 16 patients with severe pain due to chronic pancreatitis were determined using an extensive neuropsychological test battery. Data from three cognitive domains (psychomotor performance, memory, executive functions were compared to data from healthy controls matched for age, gender and education. Multivariate multilevel analysis of the data showed decreased test scores in patients with chronic pancreatitis pain in different cognitive domains. Psychomotor performance and executive functions showed the most prominent decline. Interestingly, pain duration appeared to be the strongest predictor for observed cognitive decline. Depressive symptoms, sleep disturbance, opioid use and history of alcohol abuse provided additional explanations for the observed cognitive decline in some of the tests, but to a lesser extent than pain duration. The negative effect of pain duration on cognitive performance is compatible with the theory of neurodegenerative properties of chronic pain. Therefore, early and effective therapeutic interventions might reduce or prevent decline in cognitive performance, thereby improving outcomes and quality of life in these patients.

  20. Age-related memory decline is associated with vascular and microglial degeneration in aged rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Rong; Kadar, Tamar; Sirimanne, Ernest; MacGibbon, Alastair; Guan, Jian

    2012-12-01

    The hippocampus processes memory is an early target of aging-related biological and structural lesions, leading to memory decline. With absent neurodegeneration in the hippocampus, which identified in rodent model of normal aging the pathology underlying age-related memory impairment is not complete. The effective glial-vascular networks are the key for maintaining neuronal functions. The changes of glial cells and cerebral capillaries with age may contribute to memory decline. Thus we examined age associated changes in neurons, glial phenotypes and microvasculature in the hippocampus of aged rats with memory decline. Young adult (6 months) and aged (35 months) male rats (Fisher/Norway-Brown) were used. To evaluate memory, four days of acquisition phase of Morris water maze tasks were carried out in both age groups and followed by a probe trial 2 h after the acquisition. The brains were then collected for analysis using immunochemistry. The aged rats showed a delayed latency (pvascular and microglial degeneration with reduced vascular endothelial growth factor and elevated GFAP expression in the hippocampus. The data indicate the memory decline with age is associated with neuronal dysfunction, possibly due to impaired glial-vascular-neuronal networks, but not neuronal degeneration. Glial and vascular degeneration found in aged rats may represent early event of aging pathology prior to neuronal degeneration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Motorcycle Parts

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    An article in NASA Tech Briefs describing a vacuum bagging process for forming composite parts helped a small Oklahoma Company to improve its manufacturing process. President of Performance Extremes, Larry Ortega, and his partners make motorcycle parts from carbon/epoxy to reduce weight. Using vacuum bags, parts have a better surface and fewer voids inside. When heat used in the vacuum bag process caused deformation upon cooling, a solution found in another tech brief solved the problem. A metal plate inside the vacuum bag made for more even heat transfer. A third article described a simple procedure for repairing loose connector pins, which the company has also utilized.

  2. Contract Law, Due Process, and the NCAA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickerson, Jaffe D.; Chapman, Mayer

    1978-01-01

    The NCAA has enjoyed almost total freedom from judicial scrutiny of its rules, procedures, and official acts in large part because of its private nature as an unincorporated association. The function of the NCAA, California State University, Hayward v NCAA, and due process of the student-athlete are discussed. (MLW)

  3. Surgeon Scientists Are Disproportionately Affected by Declining NIH Funding Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narahari, Adishesh K; Mehaffey, J Hunter; Hawkins, Robert B; Charles, Eric J; Baderdinni, Pranav K; Chandrabhatla, Anirudha S; Kocan, Joseph W; Jones, R Scott; Upchurch, Gilbert R; Kron, Irving L; Kern, John A; Ailawadi, Gorav

    2018-04-01

    Obtaining National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding over the last 10 years has become increasingly difficult due to a decrease in the number of research grants funded and an increase in the number of NIH applications. National Institutes of Health funding amounts and success rates were compared for all disciplines using data from NIH, Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology (FASEB), and Blue Ridge Medical Institute. Next, all NIH grants (2006 to 2016) with surgeons as principal investigators were identified using the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio Online Reporting Tools Expenditures and Results (NIH RePORTER), and a grant impact score was calculated for each grant based on the publication's impact factor per funding amount. Linear regression and one-way ANOVA were used for analysis. The number of NIH grant applications has increased by 18.7% (p = 0.0009), while the numbers of funded grants (p rate of funded grants with surgeons as principal investigators (16.4%) has been significantly lower than the mean NIH funding rate (19.2%) (p = 0.011). Despite receiving only 831 R01s during this time period, surgeon scientists were highly productive, with an average grant impact score of 4.9 per $100,000, which increased over the last 10 years (0.15 ± 0.05/year, p = 0.02). Additionally, the rate of conversion of surgeon scientist-mentored K awards to R01s from 2007 to 2012 was 46%. Despite declining funding over the last 10 years, surgeon scientists have demonstrated increasing productivity as measured by impactful publications and higher success rates in converting early investigator awards to R01s. Copyright © 2018 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Decline in Kelp in West Europe and Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginie Raybaud

    Full Text Available Kelp ecosystems form widespread underwater forests playing a major role in structuring the biodiversity at a regional scale. Some seaweeds such as Laminaria digitata are also economically important, being exploited for their alginate and iodine content. Although some studies have shown that kelp ecosystems are regressing and that multiple causes are likely to be at the origin of the disappearance of certain populations, the extent to which global climate change may play a role remains speculative. Here we show that many populations of L. digitata along European coasts are on the verge of local extinction due to a climate-caused increase in sea temperature. By modeling the spatial distribution of the seaweed, we evaluate the possible implications of global climate change for the geographical patterns of the species using temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5. Projections of the future range of L. digitata throughout the 21st century show large shifts in the suitable habitat of the kelp and a northward retreat of the southern limit of its current geographic distribution from France to Danish coasts and the southern regions of the United Kingdom. However, these projections depend on the intensity of warming. A medium to high warming is expected to lead to the extirpation of the species as early as the first half of the 21st century and there is high confidence that regional extinction will spread northwards by the end of this century. These changes are likely to cause the decline of species whose life cycle is closely dependent upon L. digitata and lead to the establishment of new ecosystems with lower ecological and economic values.

  5. Severe exacerbations and decline in lung function in asthma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Byrne, Paul M; Pedersen, Søren; Lamm, Carl Johan

    2009-01-01

    RATIONALE: To evaluate the association between asthma exacerbations and the decline in lung function, as well as the potential effects of an inhaled corticosteroid, budesonide, on exacerbation-related decline in patients with asthma. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether severe asthma exacerbations...... with low-dose inhaled budesonide prevents severe asthma-related events (exacerbations requiring hospitalization or emergency treatment) and decline in lung function. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 315 patients who experienced at least one severe asthma exacerbation, of which 305 were analyzable...... of reduction afforded by budesonide, in patients who experienced at least one severe asthma-related event compared with those who did not, was statistically significant (P = 0.042). CONCLUSIONS: Severe asthma exacerbations are associated with a more rapid decline in lung function. Treatment with low doses...

  6. Vascular Risk Factors as Treatment Target to Prevent Cognitive Decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richard, Edo; Moll van Charante, Eric P.; van Gool, Willem A.

    2012-01-01

    Epidemiological studies have consistently shown that vascular risk factors including hypertension, diabetes, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and lack of physical exercise are associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline and dementia. Neuroradiological and neuropathological studies

  7. Cessation of a salmon decline with control of parasites

    KAUST Repository

    Peacock, Stephanie J.; Krkošek, Martin; Proboszcz, Stan; Orr, Craig; Lewis, Mark A.

    2013-01-01

    (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) from Pacific Canada indicates that adaptive changes in parasite management on salmon farms have yielded positive conservation outcomes. After four years of sea lice epizootics and wild salmon population decline, parasiticide application

  8. Longitudinal Decline in Lung Function Measurements among Saskatchewan Grain Workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Punam Pahwa

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationship between the long term effects of grain dust and decline in lung function among grain elevator workers in Saskatchewan, studied over a 15-year period.

  9. Neighborhood Decline and the Economic Crisis (discussion paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwiers, M.D.; Bolt, G.; Van Ham, M.; Van Kempen, R.

    2014-01-01

    Neighborhood decline is a complex and multidimensional process. National and regional variation in economic and political structures (including variety in national welfare state arrangements), combined with differences in neighborhood history, development and population composition, makes it

  10. ALIEN SPECIES: THEIR ROLE IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES AND RESTORATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alien species (also referred to as exotic, invasive, introduced, or normative species) have been implicated as causal agents in population declines of many amphibian species. Herein, we evaluate the relative contributions of alien species and other factors in adversely affecting ...

  11. Decline in the prevalence HIV among pregnant women attending ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Decline in the prevalence HIV among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in Tanzania, 2001-2011. ... Journal Home > Vol 19, No 2 (2017) > ... as age, marital status, parity, education level and duration of stay at present residence.

  12. Folic Acid Supplements: Can They Slow Cognitive Decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cognitive decline? I've heard that folic acid supplements can improve cognitive function in older adults. Could ... D. There's no conclusive evidence that folic acid supplements improve cognitive function in older adults or in ...

  13. The decline and fall of Type II error rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill; Mark Durst

    2005-01-01

    For general linear models with normally distributed random errors, the probability of a Type II error decreases exponentially as a function of sample size. This potentially rapid decline reemphasizes the importance of performing power calculations.

  14. Decline in snowfall in response to temperature in Satluj basin ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The study also consists an analysis of average values of annual snowfall and temperature ... During the study, it was observed that the snowfall exhibited declining trends in the basin. ... National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247 667, India.

  15. Rate of pulmonary function decline in South African children with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    mortality associated with cystic fibrosis (CF).1 The pattern of lung function .... pancreatic function, and colonisation with Staphylococcus aureus or .... a twofold increase in the risk of having moderate to severe .... Risk factors for rate of decline.

  16. Poison blamed for decline of Spain's majestic Black Vultures

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2007-03-01

    catastrophic” decline in numbers because of illegal poisoning by hunters. The use of poisoned bait to kill foxes, badgers, wild dogs, feral cats and smaller birds of prey has reduced the population by almost a half in the past decade,.

  17. Local and global influences on population declines of coastal waders: Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima numbers in the Moray Firth, Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Ron W.; Foster, Simon; Swann, Bob; Etheridge, Brian

    2012-05-01

    Declines in numbers by several wader species in Britain have been linked to climate change, but the mechanism for the declines has rarely been explored. Britain lies at the northern end of the East Atlantic Flyway, and supports 1.3 million out of the Flyway's 8.5 million coastal waders (Charadrii) in winter and the Purple Sandpiper is one of the species whose numbers have declined. Here, we examine the dynamics of the decline as observed in the Moray Firth, northeast Scotland, investigating whether the decline was due to poorer apparent survival (return rate) or poorer recruitment of young birds. The maximum number in the Moray Firth declined from 860 in 1987/88 to 236 in 2006/07, with some increase during winters 2007/08 and 2008/09. At the three main high-tide roosts (Balintore, Lossiemouth and Buckie) the maximum combined number declined from 574 to 90. Changes in survival and recruitment (percentage of first-year birds) were examined at these roosts from captured samples, which were ringed and recaptured. There were no significant changes between winters in survival rates, nor were there differences between the survival rates of age groups (first-year and adult) or bill size groups, which represented birds of different sex and breeding origin. Annual survival estimates for the three roosts ranged from 72 to 77%. The percentage of first-year birds varied among roosts and years; the lowest values were during the late 1980s/early 1990s and early 2000s. A free-running population model incorporating varying percentages of first-year birds and constant mortality for each roost provided a plausible explanation for the decline. Although modelled numbers followed the observed pattern, a discrepancy in one year was carried forward in subsequent years, so that the fit with the observed numbers was parallel rather than similar. However, it seems that the decline in numbers was largely due to poorer recruitment. We discuss whether breeding success had declined, whether the

  18. Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David

    2017-01-20

    If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart

  19. Army Study Shows Decline In Behavioral Health Stigma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Army Study Shows Decline in Behavioral Health Stigma By Rob McIlvaine Army News Service WASHINGTON, Jan. 20, 2012 - A newly released Army study on...conference yesterday. The three-year study outlines the problem of suicide in the Army and related issues of substance abuse, spouse abuse and child abuse...REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2012 to 00-00-2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Army Study Shows Decline In Behavioral Health Stigma 5a. CONTRACT

  20. Economic reasons behind the decline of the Ottoman empire

    OpenAIRE

    Duranoglu, Erkut; Okutucu, Guzide

    2009-01-01

    This study addresses the economic reasons of the decline and fall of the Ottoman Empire. On the contrary to the previous researches, by undertaking both global and domestic developments, the paper examines the decline of the empire from an economical point of perspective. Although international developments such as industrialization in European countries, pressure on the Ottomans in terms of integrating with the world economy, global economic factors like depressions and war...

  1. [Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurz, R

    1982-05-01

    The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

  2. A decomposition analysis of recent fertility decline in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubhaju, B; Shahidullah, M

    1990-12-01

    Over the period 1966-86, both the Fijian and Indian populations of Fiji demonstrated declines in fertility. Differentials in the decline were, however, noted with the total fertility rate (TFR) of the Fijian population declining by 26% over the period compared to a 50% decline in the Indian TFR. Moreover, rate declines were not smooth and consistent over the period. Faster fertility decline was experienced in the 1st decade for both groups, slowing in the 2nd decade for Indian women, and stabilizing among the Fijians. This paper decomposes these differential changes in fertility rate into marital structure and marital fertility. The study was conducted using data from the censuses of 1966, 1976, and 1986. For the period 1966-76, declines in marital fertility contributed most to overall TFR decline for both ethnic groups. Marital structure had a reducing effect upon TFR among Indian women in the 1st decaed, but not during the 2nd. Fijian women experienced an overall negative impact from marital structure. Contraception plays an important role in limiting fertility in these 2 populations. Accordingly, differentials in acceptance were noticed, the family planning acceptance rate for Indians being almost twice that of Fijians; 35.6% and 18.7%, respectively in 1986. Compared to Indian women, Fijian women were more literate, more economically active, had higher life expectancies, and experience lower infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, they are not motivated to use family planning. Motivational, cultural, religious, and behavioral factors are suggested as causal factors determining acceptance and use of modern contraceptive methods.

  3. Persistent cannabis users show neuropsychological decline from childhood to midlife

    OpenAIRE

    Meier, Madeline H.; Caspi, Avshalom; Ambler, Antony; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate; Keefe, Richard S. E.; McDonald, Kay; Ward, Aimee; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

    2012-01-01

    Recent reports show that fewer adolescents believe that regular cannabis use is harmful to health. Concomitantly, adolescents are initiating cannabis use at younger ages, and more adolescents are using cannabis on a daily basis. The purpose of the present study was to test the association between persistent cannabis use and neuropsychological decline and determine whether decline is concentrated among adolescent-onset cannabis users. Participants were members of the Dunedin Study, a prospecti...

  4. Why do patients decline participation in offered pulmonary rehabilitation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathar, Helle; Fastholm, Pernille; Lange, Peter

    2017-01-01

    of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and among stable patients attending an outpatient clinic. Participants: Patients who decline participation in offered pulmonary rehabilitation, who speak Danish, who are able to give informed consent and to participate in a 1-hour interview. Method: The research...... question was answered through interviews with 19 patients. Data Analysis: The interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. The transcripts were analyzed using inductive content analysis. The transcripts were condensed; categories were developed providing different types of explanations for declining...

  5. Global change and the decline of coral reefs

    OpenAIRE

    Strasser, A.

    1999-01-01

    Ever since coral reefs exist, changing environmental conditions have periodically led to their decline. However, within the perspective of geological time-spans, corals have always managed to re-install themselves. Today, human activity has enhanced stress factors and added new ones that cause a rapid and (on the human time-scale) irreversible decline of many reef ecosystems. The reasons for the disturbance of these complex communities are multiple, but global warming is a k...

  6. What to Do About Canada's Declining Math Scores?

    OpenAIRE

    Anna Stokke

    2015-01-01

    The declining performance of Canadian students on international math assessments should worry Canadians and their provincial governments. Strong mathematics knowledge is required for success in the workforce, and early achievement in math is one of the best predictors of later academic success and future career options. Between 2003 and 2012, all but two Canadian provinces showed statistically significant declines in math scores on international exams administered by the Organization for Econ...

  7. Fertility Decline in Pakistan 1980-2006 : A Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2010-01-01

    Pakistan was selected as a case study because of its estimated 40 percent decline in fertility between 1980 and 2006. Pakistan's high fertility rate began to decline gradually after the late 1980s and has continued to fall since then, though progress has been uneven and there have been signs of a slowdown in recent years. Unlike the other four case study countries (Algeria, Botswana, Iran,...

  8. Hospital marketing: strategy reassessment in a declining market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Doren, D C; Spielman, A P

    1989-03-01

    Despite continued significant increases in the nation's spending for health care, use of inpatient hospital services has declined. The authors use the product life cycle to analyze the market for inpatient hospital services and to examine competitive strategies for hospital marketing success. The product life cycle literature suggests at least four strategies for products in decline. The authors analyze the advantages and disadvantages of these strategies as they relate to the hospital market.

  9. Decline Curve Based Models for Predicting Natural Gas Well Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Kamari, Arash; Mohammadi, Amir H.; Lee, Moonyong; Mahmood, Tariq; Bahadori, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN) modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM) approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy ...

  10. Bilingualism and cognitive decline : a story of pride and prejudice

    OpenAIRE

    Woumans, Evy; Versijpt, Jan; Sieben, Anne; Santens, Patrick; Duyck, Wouter

    2017-01-01

    In a recent review, Mukadam, Sommerlad, and Livingston (2017) argue that bilingualism offers no protection against cognitive decline. The authors examined the results of 13 studies (five prospective, eight retrospective) in which monolinguals and bilinguals were compared for cognitive decline and onset of dementia symptoms. Analysis of four of the five prospective studies resulted in the conclusion that there was no difference between monolinguals and bilinguals, whereas seven of the eight re...

  11. Autobiographical memory decline in Alzheimer’s Disease

    OpenAIRE

    EL HAJ, Mohamad; Antoine, Pascal; Nandrino, Jean-Louis; Kapogiannis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Autobiographical memory, or memory for personal experiences, allows individuals to define themselves and construct a meaningful life story. Decline of this ability, as observed in Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), results in an impaired sense of self and identity. We present a critical review of theories and findings regarding cognitive and neuroanatomical underpinnings of autobiographical memory and its decline in AD and highlight studies on its clinical rehabilitation. We propose that autobiographi...

  12. Meaningful use of health information technology and declines in in-hospital adverse drug events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furukawa, Michael F; Spector, William D; Rhona Limcangco, M; Encinosa, William E

    2017-07-01

    Nationwide initiatives have promoted greater adoption of health information technology as a means to reduce adverse drug events (ADEs). Hospital adoption of electronic health records with Meaningful Use (MU) capabilities expected to improve medication safety has grown rapidly. However, evidence that MU capabilities are associated with declines in in-hospital ADEs is lacking. Data came from the 2010-2013 Medicare Patient Safety Monitoring System and the 2008-2013 Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society (HIMSS) Analytics Database. Two-level random intercept logistic regression was used to estimate the association of MU capabilities and occurrence of ADEs, adjusting for patient characteristics, hospital characteristics, and year of observation. Rates of in-hospital ADEs declined by 19% from 2010 to 2013. Adoption of MU capabilities was associated with 11% lower odds of an ADE (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.96). Interoperability capability was associated with 19% lower odds of an ADE (95% CI, 0.67- 0.98). Adoption of MU capabilities explained 22% of the observed reduction in ADEs, or 67,000 fewer ADEs averted by MU. Concurrent with the rapid uptake of MU and interoperability, occurrence of in-hospital ADEs declined significantly from 2010 to 2013. MU capabilities and interoperability were associated with lower occurrence of ADEs, but the effects did not vary by experience with MU. About one-fifth of the decline in ADEs from 2010 to 2013 was attributable to MU capabilities. Findings support the contention that adoption of MU capabilities and interoperability spurred by the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act contributed in part to the recent decline in ADEs. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the United States.

  13. Prevention of cognitive decline: Lifestyle and other issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cyriac George

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Ageing often leads to decline in cognitive abilities. Significant cognitive impairment leads to functional impairment and need for care. Prevention of cognitive decline and delaying its progression would help to reduce the need for long-term care. Both genetic and environmental factors are important determinants of cognitive health in late life. A better cognitive reserve helps to prevent cognitive decline. Cognitive reserve is now considered as a functional reserve rather than a structural reserve. Cognitive reserve can be enhanced through experience. People with higher level of education tend to have higher cognitive reserve. Better cognitive reserve can act as a buffer. Engagement in cognitively stimulating activities may prevent cognitive decline in late life. Physical exercise also improves cognitive health. Aerobic exercises, which improve cardiorespiratory fitness, improve cognitive functions like motor functions, cognitive speed, and auditory and visual attention. Beneficial effects on executive functions are also reported. Healthy diet, especially adherence to Mediterranean diet (MeDi, is considered to be useful in preserving cognitive health. Engagement in social activities might also reduce cognitive decline. Encouraging adherence to a healthy lifestyle and continuing to be physically, socially, and cognitively active seems to be a promising strategy to prevent cognitive decline.

  14. The cause of global amphibian declines: a developmental endocrinologist's perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, T B; Falso, P; Gallipeau, S; Stice, M

    2010-03-15

    Greater than 70% of the world's amphibian species are in decline. We propose that there is probably not a single cause for global amphibian declines and present a three-tiered hierarchical approach that addresses interactions among and between ultimate and proximate factors that contribute to amphibian declines. There are two immediate (proximate) causes of amphibian declines: death and decreased recruitment (reproductive failure). Although much attention has focused on death, few studies have addressed factors that contribute to declines as a result of failed recruitment. Further, a great deal of attention has focused on the role of pathogens in inducing diseases that cause death, but we suggest that pathogen success is profoundly affected by four other ultimate factors: atmospheric change, environmental pollutants, habitat modification and invasive species. Environmental pollutants arise as likely important factors in amphibian declines because they have realized potential to affect recruitment. Further, many studies have documented immunosuppressive effects of pesticides, suggesting a role for environmental contaminants in increased pathogen virulence and disease rates. Increased attention to recruitment and ultimate factors that interact with pathogens is important in addressing this global crisis.

  15. Autobiographical memory decline in Alzheimer’s Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    EL HAJ, Mohamad; Antoine, Pascal; Nandrino, Jean-Louis; Kapogiannis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Autobiographical memory, or memory for personal experiences, allows individuals to define themselves and construct a meaningful life story. Decline of this ability, as observed in Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), results in an impaired sense of self and identity. We present a critical review of theories and findings regarding cognitive and neuroanatomical underpinnings of autobiographical memory and its decline in AD and highlight studies on its clinical rehabilitation. We propose that autobiographical recall in AD is mainly characterized by loss of associated episodic information, which leads to de-contextualisation of autobiographical memories and a shift from reliving past events to a general sense of familiarity. This decline refers to retrograde, but also anterograde amnesia that affects newly acquired memories besides remote ones. One consequence of autobiographical memory decline in AD is decreased access to memories that shape self-consciousness, self-knowledge, and self-images, leading to a diminished sense of self and identity. The link between autobiographical decline and compromised sense of self in AD can also manifest itself as low correspondence and coherence between past memories and current goals and beliefs. By linking cognitive, neuroanatomical, and clinical aspects of autobiographical decline in AD, our review provides a theoretical foundation, which may lead to better rehabilitation strategies. PMID:26876367

  16. Interpreting Gas Production Decline Curves By Combining Geometry and Topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, R. P.; Hu, Q.

    2014-12-01

    Shale gas production forms an increasing fraction of domestic US energy supplies, but individual gas production wells show steep production declines. Better understanding of this production decline would allow better economic forecasting; better understanding of the reasons behind the decline would allow better production management. Yet despite these incentives, production declines curves remain poorly understood, and current analyses range from Arps' purely empirical equation to new sophisticated approaches requiring multiple unavailable parameters. Models often fail to capture salient features: for example, in log-log space many wells decline with an exponent markedly different from the -0.5 expected from diffusion, and often show a transition from one decline mode to another. We propose a new approach based on the assumption that the rate-limiting step is gas movement from the matrix to the induced fracture network. The matrix is represented as an assemblage of equivalent spheres (geometry), with low matrix pore connectivity (topology) that results in a distance-dependent accessible porosity profile given by percolation theory. The basic theory has just 2 parameters: the sphere size distribution (geometry), and the crossover distance (topology) that characterizes the porosity distribution. The theory is readily extended to include e.g. alternative geometries and bi-modal size distributions. Comparisons with historical data are promising.

  17. MIRD methodology. Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojo, Ana M.

    2004-01-01

    This lecture develops the MIRD (Medical Internal Radiation Dose) methodology for the evaluation of the internal dose due to the administration of radiopharmaceuticals. In this first part, the basic concepts and the main equations are presented. The ICRP Dosimetric System is also explained. (author)

  18. MIRD methodology. Part 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Parada, Ines

    2004-01-01

    This paper develops the MIRD (Medical Internal Radiation Dose) methodology for the evaluation of the internal dose due to the administration of radiopharmaceuticals. In this second part, different methods for the calculation of the accumulated activity are presented, together with the effective half life definition. Different forms of Retention Activity curves are also shown. (author)

  19. Role of metal ions in the cognitive decline of Down syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakisa eMalakooti

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Down syndrome (DS, caused by trisomy of whole or part of chromosome 21 is the most common mental impairment. All Down syndrome (DS individuals suffer from cognitive decline and develop Alzheimer’s disease (AD by the age of forty. The appearance of enlarged early endosomes, followed by Amyloid β peptide deposition, the appearance of tau-containing neurofibrillary tangles and basal forebrain cholinergic neuron (BFCN degeneration are the neuropathological characteristics of this disease. In this review we will examine the role of metal ion dyshomeostasis and the genes which may be involved in these processes, and relate these back to the manifestation of age-dependant cognitive decline in DS.

  20. Why the racial gap in life expectancy is declining in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firebaugh, Glenn; Acciai, Francesco; Noah, Aggie J.; Prather, Christopher; Nau, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Blacks have lower life expectancy than whites in the United States. That disparity could be due to racial differences in the causes of death, with blacks being more likely to die of causes that affect the young, or it could be due to differences in the average ages of blacks and whites who die of the same cause. Prior studies fail to distinguish these two possibilities. OBJECTIVE In this study we determine how much of the 2000–10 reduction in the racial gap in life expectancy resulted from narrowing differences in the cause-specific mean age at death for blacks and whites, as opposed to changing cause-specific probabilities for blacks and whites. METHOD We introduce a method for separating the difference-in-probabilities and difference-inage components of group disparities in life expectancy. RESULTS Based on the new method, we find that 60% of the decline in the racial gap in life expectancy from 2000 to 2010 was attributable to reduction in the age component, largely because of declining differences in the age at which blacks and whites die of chronic diseases. CONCLUSION Our findings shed light on the sources of the declining racial gap in life expectancy in the United States, and help to identify where advances need to be made to achieve the goal of eliminating racial disparities in life expectancy. PMID:25580083

  1. Why the racial gap in life expectancy is declining in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glenn Firebaugh

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Blacks have lower life expectancy than whites in the United States. That disparity could be due to racial differences in the causes of death, with blacks being more likely to die of causes that affect the young, or it could be due to differences in the average ages of blacks and whites who die of the same cause. Prior studies fail to distinguish these two possibilities. Objective: In this study we determine how much of the 2000-10 reduction in the racial gap in life expectancy resulted from narrowing differences in the cause-specific mean age at death for blacks and whites, as opposed to changing cause-specific probabilities for blacks and whites. Methods: We introduce a method for separating the difference-in-probabilities and difference-in-age components of group disparities in life expectancy. Results: Based on the new method, we find that 60Š of the decline in the racial gap in life expectancy from 2000 to 2010 was attributable to reduction in the age component, largely because of declining differences in the age at which blacks and whites die of chronic diseases. Conclusions: Our findings shed light on the sources of the declining racial gap in life expectancy in the United States, and help to identify where advances need to be made to achieve the goal of eliminating racial disparities in life expectancy.

  2. Modelling lamb carcase pH and temperature decline parameters: relationship to shear force and abattoir variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, David L; Holman, Benjamin W B; van de Ven, Remy J

    2015-02-01

    Carcase pH and temperature decline rates influence lamb tenderness; therefore pH decline parameters are beneficial when modelling tenderness. These include pH at temperature 18 °C (pH@Temp18), temperature when pH is 6 (Temp@pH6), and pH at 24 h post-mortem (pH24). This study aimed to establish a relationship between shear force (SF) as a proxy for tenderness and carcase pH decline parameters estimated using both linear and spline estimation models for the m. longissimus lumborum (LL). The study also compared abattoirs regarding their achievement of ideal pH decline, indicative of optimal tenderness. Based on SF measurements of LL and m. semimembranosus collected as part of the Information Nucleus slaughter programme (CRC for Sheep Industry Innovation) this study found significant relationships between tenderness and pH24LL, consistent across the meat cuts and ageing periods examined. Achievement of ideal pH decline was shown not to have significantly differed across abattoirs, although rates of pH decline varied significantly across years within abattoirs.

  3. Microbleeds do not affect rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vlies, Annelies E; Goos, Jeroen D C; Barkhof, Frederik; Scheltens, Philip; van der Flier, Wiesje M

    2012-08-21

    To investigate the relationship between brain microbleeds (MBs) and the rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease (AD). In this cohort study, we studied 221 patients with AD with available baseline MRI scans (1.0 or 1.5 T) and at least 2 Mini-Mental State Examinations (MMSE) scores obtained more than 1 year apart from our memory clinic. Mean ± SD follow-up time was 3 ± 1 years, and patients had a median of 4 MMSE scores (range 2-17). We used linear mixed models with sex and age as covariates to investigate whether MBs influenced the rate of cognitive decline. Mean age was 68 ± 9 years, 109 (49%) patients were female, and the baseline MMSE score was 22 ± 4. There were 39 patients (18%) with MBs (median 2, range 1-27) and 182 without. Linear mixed models showed that overall patients declined 2 MMSE points per year. We found no association of the presence of MBs with baseline MMSE or change in MMSE. Adjustment for atrophy, white matter hyperintensities, lacunes, and vascular risk factors did not change the results nor did stratification for MB location, APOE ε4 carriership, or age at onset (≤65 years vs >65 years). Repeating the analyses with number of MBs as predictor rendered similar results. MBs did not influence the rate of cognitive decline in patients with AD. The formerly reported increased risk of mortality in patients with MBs seems not to be attributable to a steeper rate of decline per se but might be due to vascular events, including (hemorrhagic) stroke.

  4. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

    2015-04-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  5. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  6. Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Souchay

    Full Text Available Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960-2010 of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY and older birds (after first-year; AFY originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity. Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions.

  7. Social relationships and cognitive decline: a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuiper, Jisca S; Zuidersma, Marij; Zuidema, Sytse U; Burgerhof, Johannes Gm; Stolk, Ronald P; Oude Voshaar, Richard C; Smidt, Nynke

    2016-08-01

    Although poor social relationships are assumed to contribute to cognitive decline, meta-analytic approaches have not been applied. Individual study results are mixed and difficult to interpret due to heterogeneity in measures of social relationships. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the relation between poor social relationships and cognitive decline. MEDLINE, Embase and PsycINFO were searched for longitudinal cohort studies examining various aspects of social relationships and cognitive decline in the general population. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Sources of heterogeneity were explored and likelihood of publication bias was assessed. We stratified analyses according to three aspects of social relationships: structural, functional and a combination of these. We identified 43 articles. Poor social relationships predicted cognitive decline; for structural (19 studies): pooled OR: 1.08 (95% CI: 1.05-1.11); functional (8 studies): pooled OR: 1.15 (95% CI: 1.00-1.32); and combined measures (7 studies): pooled OR: 1.12 (95% CI: 1.01-1.24). Meta-regression and subgroup analyses showed that the heterogeneity could be explained by the type of social relationship measurement and methodological quality of included studies. Despite heterogeneity in study design and measures, our meta-analyses show that multiple aspects of social relationships are associated with cognitive decline. As evidence for publication bias was found, the association might be overestimated and should therefore be interpreted with caution. Future studies are needed to better define the mechanisms underlying these associations. Potential causality of this prognostic association should be examined in future randomized controlled studies. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  8. Declining Groundwater Levels in North India: Understanding Sources of Irrigation Inefficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keeffe, J.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.; Brozovic, N.

    2014-12-01

    Over the last half century, the green revolution has transformed India from a famine-prone, drought-susceptible country, into the world's third largest grain producer and one of the most intensely irrigated regions on the planet. This is in no small part due to the country's vast water resources along with an increase in tubewells and more advanced abstraction methods. While agricultural intensification has had undeniable benefits, it has, and continues to have a significant impact on water resources. Unless solutions which take into consideration the ever evolving socio-economic, hydrological and climatic conditions are found, India's agricultural future looks bleak.This research examines the irrigation behaviour of farmers, using data collected during field work in the State of Uttar Pradesh within the Ganges Basin of North India. Significant differences in farmer behaviour and irrigation practices are highlighted, not only between State districts but between individual farmers. This includes the volume of irrigation water applied and the price paid, as well as differences in the yields of crops produced. Analyses of results suggest that this is due to a number of factors, particularly the source of irrigation water. Study areas which had access to cheaper, but crucially less reliable, canal water were found to invest in more efficient water saving technologies in order to reduce the overall cost of irrigation during periods where less expensive canal water is not available. As a result, overall water use and irrigation cost is lower and yields are higher despite very similar climatic conditions. While cheap canal water is not an option for all farmers, the results show that the introduction of more efficient water saving technologies, despite the significant capital expenditure is a viable option for many farmers and costs can be recovered in a relatively short space of time. In addition, the reduction of declining water levels mean that water is abstracted from

  9. Analytical modeling of injectivity decline in perforated wells; Modelagem analitica da perda de injetividade em pocos canhoneados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomes, Vanessa Limeira Azevedo; Santos, Adriano dos; Araujo, Juliana Aragao de [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), Natal, RN (Brazil)

    2012-07-01

    During water injection, reductions of permeability (or formation damage) have been observed in many reservoirs, characterizing the injectivity decline. The permeability reduction exists due to the presence of solid and liquid particles in suspension, which are present in the water injected to be. Like this, during the development of projects for the oil production in the water management area, the phenomenon of injectivity decline must be studied, among other activities. This study includes the theoretical and practical modeling of the injectivity decline. The modeling includes different analytical models (empirical and semi-empirical) and laboratory tests, accordingly. Looking forward to this, a simulator based on the classic filtration theory of porous media was developed in order to prevent the injectivity decline within perforated wells. The formation damage caused during deep filtration and cake formation (after transition time) was included in the modeling of perforated wells; the effect of superposition of the diverse perforations was also considered. Besides that, the injectivity decline forecast was made based on well history data. The simulator allowed to forecast the injectivity decline during water injection showing a good adjustment of field history data, so it could be used to assist in the planning of injection wells stimulation. (author)

  10. Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan D James

    Full Text Available Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9 years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03. More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002 and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006. Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015 and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026 persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment; the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078. These findings are consistent with the

  11. Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Bryan D; Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Han, S Duke; Bennett, David A

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9) years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03). More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002) and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006). Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015) and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026) persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment); the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that

  12. Polar bear and walrus response to the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakley, K.; Whalen, M.; Douglas, David C.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Atwood, Todd C.; Jay, C.

    2012-01-01

    The Arctic is warming faster than other regions of the world due to positive climate feedbacks associated with loss of snow and ice. One highly visible consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades - a decline projected to continue and result in ice-free summers likely as soon as 2030. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) are dependent on sea ice over the continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean's marginal seas. The continental shelves are shallow regions with high biological productivity, supporting abundant marine life within the water column and on the sea floor. Polar bears use sea ice as a platform for hunting ice seals; walruses use sea ice as a resting platform between dives to forage for clams and other bottom-dwelling invertebrates. How have sea ice changes affected polar bears and walruses? How will anticipated changes affect them in the future?

  13. Decline of Monarch Butterflies Overwintering in Mexico- Is the Migratory Phenomenon at Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brower, Lincoln; Taylor, Orley R.; Williams, Ernest H.; Slayback, Daniel; Zubieta, Raul R.; Ramirez, M. Isabel

    2012-01-01

    1.During the 2009-2010 overwintering season and following a 15-year downward trend, the total area in Mexico occupied by the eastern North American population of overwintering monarch butterflies reached an all-time low. Despite an increase, it remained low in 2010-2011. 2. Although the data set is small, the decline in abundance is statistically significant using both linear and exponential regression models. 3. Three factors appear to have contributed to reduce monarch abundance: degradation of the forest in the overwintering areas; the loss of breeding habitat in the United States due to the expansion ofGM herbicide-resistant crops, with consequent loss of milkweed host plants, as well as continued land development; and severe weather. 4. This decline calls into question the long-term survival of the monarchs' migratory phenomenon

  14. Fines stabilizing agent reduces production decline rates in steam injected wells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castillo de Castillo, Milagros; Fernandez Andrades, Jarvi [PDVSA - Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., Caracas (Venezuela); Navarro Cornejo, Willian; Curtis, James [BJ Services do Brasil Ltda., RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The Bachaquero Lago heavy oil field, located in Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela, with an area of 9800 ha, in which more than 1800 wells have been drilled. The Lagunillas formation in this field is a mature, clastic, unconsolidated sandstone of Miocene age with good permeability. Clays are present, in laminated form or dispersed within the productive sandstones. Heavy oil, less than 12 deg API, is produced by cyclic steam injection. Wells are completed with cased-hole gravel packs to prevent sand and fines production. Rapid production decline rates are typically observed after the steam injection cycles, due to fines migration and plugging of the reservoir and gravel pack. This paper describes the methodology used to treat the wells with a fines stabilizing agent during the steam injection cycles in order to successfully reduce the subsequent production decline rate. Results from a multi-well pilot project are presented and analyzed. (author)

  15. Recent declines in cancer incidence: related to the Great Recession?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Canchola, Alison J; Nelson, David O; Keegan, Theresa H M; Clarke, Christina A; Cheng, Iona; Shariff-Marco, Salma; DeRouen, Mindy; Catalano, Ralph; Satariano, William A; Davidson-Allen, Kathleen; Glaser, Sally L

    2017-02-01

    In recent years, cancer case counts in the U.S. underwent a large, rapid decline-an unexpected change given population growth for older persons at highest cancer risk. As these declines coincided with the Great Recession, we examined whether they were related to economic conditions. Using California Cancer Registry data from California's 30 most populous counties, we analyzed trends in cancer incidence during pre-recession (1996-2007) and recession/recovery (2008-2012) periods for all cancers combined and the ten most common sites. We evaluated the recession's association with rates using a multifactorial index that measured recession impact, and modeled associations between case counts and county-level unemployment rates using Poisson regression. Yearly cancer incidence rate declines were greater during the recession/recovery (3.3% among males, 1.4% among females) than before (0.7 and 0.5%, respectively), particularly for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers. Lower case counts, especially for prostate and liver cancer among males and breast cancer, melanoma, and ovarian cancer among females, were associated with higher unemployment rates, irrespective of time period, but independent of secular effects. The associations for melanoma translated up to a 3.6% decrease in cases with each 1% increase in unemployment. Incidence declines were not greater in counties with higher recession impact index. Although recent declines in incidence of certain cancers are not differentially impacted by economic conditions related to the Great Recession relative to pre-recession conditions, the large recent absolute declines in the case counts of some cancer may be attributable to the large declines in unemployment in the recessionary period. This may occur through decreased engagement in preventive health behaviors, particularly for clinically less urgent cancers. Continued monitoring of trends is important to detect any rises in incidence rates as deferred diagnoses come to

  16. Cued memory decline in biomarker-defined preclinical Alzheimer disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papp, Kathryn V; Rentz, Dorene M; Mormino, Elizabeth C; Schultz, Aaron P; Amariglio, Rebecca E; Quiroz, Yakeel; Johnson, Keith A; Sperling, Reisa A

    2017-04-11

    To determine whether a decline in cued recall is observable in the preclinical stage of Alzheimer disease (AD) in clinically normal older adults with elevated β-amyloid (Aβ) burden on PET imaging. Clinically normal older adults underwent baseline neuroimaging (PET to assess Aβ +/- status and MRI) and annual neuropsychological testing. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the relative risk of cued memory decline (drop of 1, 2, 3, or 4 points on the total score of the Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test) in relation to neuroimaging measures, functional status, age, sex, and education. A total of 276 older adults (Clinical Dementia Rating = 0, mean Mini-Mental State Examination score = 29 ± 1.06) were followed up for a mean of 3.6 ± 1.2 years. Despite the infrequency of cued memory decline (only 19% of participants scored ≤46/48 in total recall by year 3), Aβ + participants were 3.55 times (95% confidence interval = 1.77-7.12) more likely to exhibit decline in total recall (≤46/48) compared with their Aβ - peers. Furthermore, Aβ + participants who scored ≤46/48 had smaller hippocampal volumes ( t = 3.37, p = 0.001) and evidence of early functional decline, i.e., greater risk of progression to global Clinical Dementia Rating of 0.5 (χ 2 = 14.30, p recall. Cued memory decline in healthy older adults may be particularly indicative of Aβ-related decline during the preclinical stage of AD and useful for identifying Aβ + clinically normal individuals at greatest risk of short-term clinical progression. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  17. Functional decline in nursing home residents: A prognostic study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Jerez-Roig

    Full Text Available To verify the probability of maintaining functional capacity in basic activities of daily living and identify the prognostic factors of functional decline in institutionalized older adults.A longitudinal study is presented herein, with 5 waves every 6 months, throughout 2 years (2013-2015, conducted with individuals ≥60 years old in 10 nursing homes in the city of Natal-RN (Brazil. Functional capacity was assessed by the items 'eating', 'personal hygiene', 'dressing', 'bathing', 'transferring', 'toileting' and 'walking', through a 5-item Likert scale. Sociodemographic, institution-related and health-related variables were considered to establish the baseline. Time dependent variables included continence decline, cognitive decline, increase in the number of medication, and incidences of falls, hospitalizations and fractures. The actuarial method, the log-rank test and Cox's regression were applied as statistical methods.The cumulative probability of functional maintenance was 78.2% (CI 95%: 72.8-82.7%, 65.1% (CI 95%: 58.9-70.5%, 53.5% (CI 95%: 47.2-59.5% and 44.0% (CI 95%: 37.7-50.2% at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months, respectively. Predicting factors for functional decline were: severe cognitive impairment (HR = 1.96; p = 0.001, continence decline (HR = 1.85; p = 0.002 and incidence of hospitalizations (HR = 1.62; p = 0.020, adjusted by the incidence of depression, age, education level, presence of chronic diseases and low weight.The cumulative probability of maintaining functional capacity in institutionalized older adults was only 44% at the 2-year follow-up. Prognostic factors for functional decline included severe cognitive impairment, continence decline and incidence of hospitalizations.

  18. Functional network integrity presages cognitive decline in preclinical Alzheimer disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Rachel F; Schultz, Aaron P; Hedden, Trey; Papp, Kathryn V; Hanseeuw, Bernard J; Marshall, Gad; Sepulcre, Jorge; Smith, Emily E; Rentz, Dorene M; Johnson, Keith A; Sperling, Reisa A; Chhatwal, Jasmeer P

    2017-07-04

    To examine the utility of resting-state functional connectivity MRI (rs-fcMRI) measurements of network integrity as a predictor of future cognitive decline in preclinical Alzheimer disease (AD). A total of 237 clinically normal older adults (aged 63-90 years, Clinical Dementia Rating 0) underwent baseline β-amyloid (Aβ) imaging with Pittsburgh compound B PET and structural and rs-fcMRI. We identified 7 networks for analysis, including 4 cognitive networks (default, salience, dorsal attention, and frontoparietal control) and 3 noncognitive networks (primary visual, extrastriate visual, motor). Using linear and curvilinear mixed models, we used baseline connectivity in these networks to predict longitudinal changes in preclinical Alzheimer cognitive composite (PACC) performance, both alone and interacting with Aβ burden. Median neuropsychological follow-up was 3 years. Baseline connectivity in the default, salience, and control networks predicted longitudinal PACC decline, unlike connectivity in the dorsal attention and all noncognitive networks. Default, salience, and control network connectivity was also synergistic with Aβ burden in predicting decline, with combined higher Aβ and lower connectivity predicting the steepest curvilinear decline in PACC performance. In clinically normal older adults, lower functional connectivity predicted more rapid decline in PACC scores over time, particularly when coupled with increased Aβ burden. Among examined networks, default, salience, and control networks were the strongest predictors of rate of change in PACC scores, with the inflection point of greatest decline beyond the fourth year of follow-up. These results suggest that rs-fcMRI may be a useful predictor of early, AD-related cognitive decline in clinical research settings. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  19. The Role of Forest Tent Caterpillar Defoliations and Partial Harvest in the Decline and Death of Sugar Maple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Henrik; Messier, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Background and Aims Natural and anthropogenic disturbances can act as stresses on tree vigour. According to Manion's conceptual model of tree disease, the initial vigour of trees decreases as a result of predisposing factors that render these trees more vulnerable to severe inciting stresses, stresses that can then cause final vigour decline and subsequent tree death. This tree disease model was tested in sugar maple (Acer saccharum) by assessing the roles of natural and anthropogenic disturbances in tree decline and death. Methods Radial growth data from 377 sugar maple trees that had undergone both defoliations by insects and partial harvest were used to estimate longitudinal survival probabilities as a proxy for tree vigour. Radial growth rates and survival probabilities were compared among trees subjected to different levels of above- and below-ground disturbances, between periods of defoliation and harvest, and between live and dead trees. Key Results Manion's tree disease model correctly accounts for vigour decline and tree death in sugar maple; tree growth and vigour were negatively affected by a first defoliation, predisposing these trees to death later during the study period due to a second insect outbreak that initiated a final vigour decline. This decline was accelerated by the partial harvest disturbance in 1993. Even the most severe anthropogenic disturbances from partial harvest did not cause, unlike insect defoliation, any growth or vigour declines in live sugar maple. Conclusions Natural disturbances acted as predisposing and inciting stresses in tree sugar maple decline and death. Anthropogenic disturbances from a partial harvest at worst accelerated a decline in trees that were already weakened by predisposing and inciting stresses (i.e. repeated insect defoliations). Favourable climatic conditions just before and after the partial harvest may have alleviated possible negative effects on growth resulting from harvesting. PMID:18660493

  20. Lacunar-canalicular network in femoral cortical bone is reduced in aged women and is predominantly due to a loss of canalicular porosity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Ashique

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The lacunar-canalicular network (LCN of bone contains osteocytes and their dendritic extensions, which allow for intercellular communication, and are believed to serve as the mechanosensors that coordinate the processes of bone modeling and remodeling. Imbalances in remodeling, for example, are linked to bone disease, including fragility associated with aging. We have reported that there is a reduction in scale for one component of the LCN, osteocyte lacunar volume, across the human lifespan in females. In the present study, we explore the hypothesis that canalicular porosity also declines with age. To visualize the LCN and to determine how its components are altered with aging, we examined samples from young (age: 20–23 y; n = 5 and aged (age: 70–86 y; n = 6 healthy women donors utilizing a fluorescent labelling technique in combination with confocal laser scanning microscopy. A large cross-sectional area of cortical bone spanning the endosteal to periosteal surfaces from the anterior proximal femoral shaft was examined in order to account for potential trans-cortical variation in the LCN. Overall, we found that LCN areal fraction was reduced by 40.6% in the samples from aged women. This reduction was due, in part, to a reduction in lacunar density (21.4% decline in lacunae number per given area of bone, but much more so due to a 44.6% decline in canalicular areal fraction. While the areal fraction of larger vascular canals was higher in endosteal vs. periosteal regions for both age groups, no regional differences were observed in the areal fractions of the LCN and its components for either age group. Our data indicate that the LCN is diminished in aged women, and is largely due to a decline in the canalicular areal fraction, and that, unlike vascular canal porosity, this diminished LCN is uniform across the cortex.

  1. Decline curve based models for predicting natural gas well performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Kamari

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and decision tree (DT method for the prediction of cumulative gas production as well as initial decline rate multiplied by time as a function of the Arps' decline curve exponent and ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate. It was concluded that the results obtained based on the models developed in current study are in satisfactory agreement with the actual gas well production data. Furthermore, the results of comparative study performed demonstrates that the LSSVM strategy is superior to the other models investigated for the prediction of both cumulative gas production, and initial decline rate multiplied by time.

  2. Forest declines: Some perspectives on linking processes and patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLaughlin, S.B.

    1992-01-01

    The regional decline in vigor of some species of forest trees has become an important component in the ecological, aesthetic, and economic criteria by which the costs of anthropogenic pollution are weighed. Because declines are often complex and virtually never without significant natural environmental modifiers, determining the role of specific anthropogenic stresses in initiating or enhancing the rate and direction of change in forest condition represents a significant research challenge. Separation of primary mechanisms that point to principal causes from secondary responses that result from internal feedbacks and the milieu of modifying agents is a critical issue in diagnosing forest decline. Air pollutant stress may have its most significant effects on forest processes by accelerating or amplifying natural stresses. Studies of changes in forest metabolic processes have played an important role in evaluating the role of air pollution in four regional forest declines that are the focus of this paper. The decline of ponderosa pine in the San Bernardino Mountains of California, Norway spruce and silver fir in Europe, loblolly and shortleaf pine in the Southeastern United States, and red spruce in the Eastern Appalachian Mountains provide case studies in which physiological responses to air pollutants under field and laboratory conditions have provided important analytical tools for assessing likely causes. These tools are most effective when both mechanistic explanations and larger scale patterns of response are evaluated in an iterative feedback loop that examines plausible mechanisms and patterns of response at levels ranging from cell membranes to plant populations

  3. Action plan against declining vineyards: An innovative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riou Christophe

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Declining vineyards are assessed by a multi-year decrease in vine productivity and/or its sudden premature or gradual death, based on multiple factors. Since 2015, the French wine sector has been working on an original study to identify new research avenues while launching an innovative action plan to combat vineyard decline. First, a statistical analysis enabled to estimate research efforts in the different countries. 70 factors susceptible to contribute to vineyard decline were then identified by analyzing more than 500 publications. These factors are biological, physical or linked to growing practices. While the role of pathogens is fairly well-known, the impact of the land plot or the soil on decline is less understood. Secondly, a prospective methodology was used to better identify viticulture system factors and levers affecting vines. It was thus demonstrated that yield and longevity are strongly linked to agronomy, economic variables and plant matter, plant physiology, disease, etc... These are the key issues and leverage actions to combat more strongly vineyard decline. The matrix analysis was then complemented by interviews and statistical data to imagine leverage actions. The strategic action plan is focused on four objectives: promoting training of good practices, improving plant production organization, developing vineyard observation networks, implementing an innovative research plan.

  4. Global amphibian declines: perspectives from the United States and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Densmore, Christine L.; Cipriano, R.C.; Bruckner, A.W.; Shchelkunov, I.S.

    2011-01-01

    Over recent decades, amphibians have experienced population declines, extirpations and species-level extinctions at an alarming rate. Numerous potential etiologies for amphibian declines have been postulated including climate and habitat degradation. Other potential anthropogenic causes including overexploitation and the frequent introductions of invasive predatory species have also been blamed for amphibian declines. Still other underlying factors may include infectious diseases caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, pathogenic viruses (Ranavirus), and other agents. It is nearly certain that more than one etiology is to blame for the majority of the global amphibian declines, and that these causal factors include some combination of climatological or physical habitat destabilization and infectious disease, most notably chytridiomycosis. Scientific research efforts are aimed at elucidating these etiologies on local, regional, and global scales that we might better understand and counteract the driving forces behind amphibian declines. Conservation efforts as outlined in the Amphibian Conservation Action Plan of 2005 are also being made to curtail losses and prevent further extinctions wherever possible.

  5. [The Antonine Plague and the decline of the Roman Empire].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbatani, S; Fiorino, S

    2009-12-01

    The Antonine Plague, which flared up during the reign of Marcus Aurelius from 165 AD and continued under the rule of his son Commodus, played such a major role that the pathocenosis in the Ancient World was changed. The spread of the epidemic was favoured by the occurrence of two military episodes in which Marcus Aurelius himself took part: the Parthian War in Mesopotamia and the wars against the Marcomanni in northeastern Italy, in Noricum and in Pannonia. Accounts of the clinical features of the epidemic are scant and disjointed, with the main source being Galen, who witnessed the plague. Unfortunately, the great physician provides us with only a brief presentation of the disease, his aim being to supply therapeutic approaches, thus passing over the accurate description of the disease symptoms. Although the reports of some clinical cases treated by Galen lead us to think that the Antonine plague was caused by smallpox, palaeopathological confirmation is lacking. Some archaeological evidence (such as terracotta finds) from Italy might reinforce this opinion. In these finds, some details can be observed, suggesting the artist's purpose to represent the classic smallpox pustules, typical signs of the disease. The extent of the epidemic has been extensively debated: the majority of authors agree that the impact of the plague was severe, influencing military conscription, the agricultural and urban economy, and depleting the coffers of the State. The Antonine plague affected ancient Roman traditions, also leaving a mark on artistic expression; a renewal of spirituality and religiousness was recorded. These events created the conditions for the spread of monotheistic religions, such as Mithraism and Christianity. This period, characterized by health, social and economic crises, paved the way for the entry into the Empire of neighbouring barbarian tribes and the recruitment of barbarian troops into the Roman army; these events particularly favoured the cultural and

  6. A human-driven decline in global burned area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andela, N; Morton, D C; Giglio, L; Chen, Y; van der Werf, G R; Kasibhatla, P S; DeFries, R S; Collatz, G J; Hantson, S; Kloster, S; Bachelet, D; Forrest, M; Lasslop, G; Li, F; Mangeon, S; Melton, J R; Yue, C; Randerson, J T

    2017-06-30

    Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  7. Late life leisure activities and risk of cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui-Xin; Jin, Yinlong; Hendrie, Hugh C; Liang, Chaoke; Yang, Lili; Cheng, Yibin; Unverzagt, Frederick W; Ma, Feng; Hall, Kathleen S; Murrell, Jill R; Li, Ping; Bian, Jianchao; Pei, Jin-Jing; Gao, Sujuan

    2013-02-01

    Studies concerning the effect of different types of leisure activities on various cognitive domains are limited. This study tests the hypothesis that mental, physical, and social activities have a domain-specific protection against cognitive decline. A cohort of a geographically defined population in China was examined in 2003-2005 and followed for an average of 2.4 years. Leisure activities were assessed in 1,463 adults aged 65 years and older without cognitive or physical impairment at baseline, and their cognitive performances were tested at baseline and follow-up examinations. High level of mental activity was related to less decline in global cognition (β = -.23, p Leisure activities in old age may protect against cognitive decline for both women and men, and different types of activities seem to benefit different cognitive domains.

  8. The Role of Lifestyle Behaviors on 20-Year Cognitive Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Cadar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the association between smoking, physical activity and dietary choice at 36 and 43 years, and change in these lifestyle behaviors between these ages, and decline in verbal memory and visual search speed between 43 and 60–64 years in 1018 participants from MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD, the British 1946 birth cohort. ANCOVA models were adjusted for sex, social class of origin, childhood cognition, educational attainment, adult social class, and depression; then the lifestyle behaviors were additionally mutually adjusted. Results showed that healthy dietary choice and physical activity were associated, respectively, with slower memory and visual search speed decline over 20 years, with evidence that increasing physical activity was important. Adopting positive health behaviors from early midlife may be beneficial in reducing the rate of cognitive decline and ultimately reducing the risk of dementia.

  9. Declining amenable mortality: a reflection of health care systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gianino, Maria Michela; Lenzi, Jacopo; Fantini, Maria Pia; Ricciardi, Walter; Damiani, Gianfranco

    2017-11-15

    Some studies have analyzed the association of health care systems variables, such as health service resources or expenditures, with amenable mortality, but the association of types of health care systems with the decline of amenable mortality has yet to be studied. The present study examines whether specific health care system types are associated with different time trend declines in amenable mortality from 2000 to 2014 in 22 European OECD countries. A time trend analysis was performed. Using Nolte and McKee's list, age-standardized amenable mortality rates (SDRs) were calculated as the annual number of deaths over the population aged 0-74 years per 100,000 inhabitants. We classified health care systems according to a deductively generated classification by Böhm. This classification identifies three dimensions that are not entirely independent of each other but follow a clear order: the regulation dimension is first, followed by the financing dimension and finally service provision. We performed a hierarchical semi-log polynomial regression analysis on the annual SDRs to determine whether specific health care systems were associated with different SDR trajectories over time. The results showed a clear decline in SDRs in all 22 health care systems between 2000 and 2014 although at different annual changes (slopes). Regression analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the slopes according to provision dimension. Health care systems with a private provision exhibited a slowdown in the decline of amenable mortality over time. It therefore seems that ownership is the most relevant dimension in determining a different pattern of decline in mortality. All countries experienced decreases in amenable mortality between 2000 and 2014; this decline seems to be partially a reflection of health care systems, especially when affected by the provision dimension. If the private ownership is maintained or promoted by health systems, these findings might be

  10. Predicting functional decline and survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Mei-Lyn; Tan, Pei Fang; Holbrook, Joanna D

    2017-01-01

    Better predictors of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease course could enable smaller and more targeted clinical trials. Partially to address this aim, the Prize for Life foundation collected de-identified records from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis sufferers who participated in clinical trials of investigational drugs and made them available to researchers in the PRO-ACT database. In this study, time series data from PRO-ACT subjects were fitted to exponential models. Binary classes for decline in the total score of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale revised (ALSFRS-R) (fast/slow progression) and survival (high/low death risk) were derived. Data was segregated into training and test sets via cross validation. Learning algorithms were applied to the demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters in the training set to predict ALSFRS-R decline and the derived fast/slow progression and high/low death risk categories. The performance of predictive models was assessed by cross-validation in the test set using Receiver Operator Curves and root mean squared errors. A model created using a boosting algorithm containing the decline in four parameters (weight, alkaline phosphatase, albumin and creatine kinase) post baseline, was able to predict functional decline class (fast or slow) with fair accuracy (AUC = 0.82). However similar approaches to build a predictive model for decline class by baseline subject characteristics were not successful. In contrast, baseline values of total bilirubin, gamma glutamyltransferase, urine specific gravity and ALSFRS-R item score-climbing stairs were sufficient to predict survival class. Using combinations of small numbers of variables it was possible to predict classes of functional decline and survival across the 1-2 year timeframe available in PRO-ACT. These findings may have utility for design of future ALS clinical trials.

  11. [Part-time medical specialist training; experiences with job-sharing for trainee internists].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevers, K; Nauta, S; Stuyt, P M

    2004-02-14

    Due to various factors such as social changes, an increasing number of couples with two incomes, and a growing proportion of female doctors, there has been a growing demand for part-time work in recent years. This is also true for resident physicians. Objections such as a discontinuity in care and the decline in the quality of education frequently prevent resident physicians from working part-time. Over the past two years, the University Medical Centre Nijmegen, the Netherlands, has experimented with job-sharing on clinical wards for resident physicians in internal medicine. This approach works well in practice, as long as a number of conditions, including the proper transfer of medical information and good communication, are satisfied. Job-sharing is one means of satisfying the growing demand for part-time work among resident physicians and specialists.

  12. Rapid cognitive decline: not always Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, A; Ellis, R; Hywel, B; Davies, R R; Alusi, S H; Larner, A J

    2015-01-01

    A patient with rapidly progressive cognitive decline over an approximately four month period was suspected to have sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Features thought to support this diagnosis included psychiatric symptoms (anxiety and depression), visual hallucinations and a visual field defect. However, the finding of papilloedema broadened the differential diagnosis. Although standard brain imaging and electroencephalography had shown only non-specific abnormalities, subsequent cerebral angiography disclosed an intracranial dural arteriovenous fistula. Following embolisation, the patient made a good functional recovery. Intracranial dural arteriovenous fistula merits consideration in any patient with subacute cognitive decline, and should be included in the differential diagnosis of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.

  13. The Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised accurately detects cognitive decline in Huntington's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begeti, Faye; Tan, Adrian Y K; Cummins, Gemma A; Collins, Lucy M; Guzman, Natalie Valle; Mason, Sarah L; Barker, Roger A

    2013-11-01

    Cognitive features, which begin before manifestation of the motor features, are an integral part of Huntington's disease and profoundly affect quality of life. A number of neuropsychological batteries have been used to assess this aspect of the condition, many of which are difficult to administer and time consuming, especially in advanced disease. We, therefore, investigated a simple and practical way to monitor cognition using the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised (ACE-R) in 126 manifest Huntington's disease patients, 28 premanifest gene carriers and 21 controls. Using this test, we demonstrated a selective decrease in phonemic, but not semantic, fluency in premanifest participants Cognitive decline in manifest Huntington's disease varied according to disease severity with extensive cognitive decline observed in early-stage Huntington's disease patients, indicating that this would be an optimal stage for interventions designed to halt cognitive decline, and lesser changes in the advanced cases. We next examined cognitive performance in patients prescribed antidopaminergic drugs as these drugs are known to decrease cognition when administered to healthy volunteers. We paradoxically found that these drugs may be beneficial, as early-stage Huntington's disease participants in receipt of them had improved attention and Mini-Mental State Examination scores. In conclusion, this is the first study to test the usefulness of the ACE-R in a Huntington's disease population and demonstrates that this is a brief, inexpensive and practical way to measure global cognitive performance in clinical practice with potential use in clinical trials.

  14. Part two

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads Pagh; Kær, Søren Knudsen; Korsgaard, Anders

    2008-01-01

    A novel micro combined heat and power system and a dynamic model thereof were presented in part one of the publication. In the following, the control system and dynamic performance of the system are presented. The model is subjected to a measured consumption pattern of 25 Danish single family...... houses with measurements of heat, power and hot water consumption every 15th minute during one year. Three scenarios are analyzed ranging from heat following only (grid compensation for electricity) to heat and power following with net export of electricity during high and peak load hours. Average...

  15. Clinical outcomes and survival surrogacy studies of prostate-specific antigen declines following enzalutamide in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer previously treated with docetaxel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Andrew J; Saad, Fred; Phung, De; Dmuchowski, Carl; Shore, Neal D; Fizazi, Karim; Hirmand, Mohammad; Forer, David; Scher, Howard I; Bono, Johann De

    2017-06-15

    In the AFFIRM trial, enzalutamide significantly increased overall survival (OS) for men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) after chemotherapy versus placebo and significantly decreased prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels. The goal of this post hoc analysis was to associate levels of PSA decline from baseline after enzalutamide with clinical outcomes in the postchemotherapy mCRPC setting. Men in the AFFIRM trial (n = 1199) were grouped by maximal PSA decline in the first 90 days of treatment. Kaplan-Meier estimates evaluated the association of defined PSA changes from baseline with OS, progression-free survival (PFS), radiographic PFS (rPFS), and pain response. Each PSA decline category was assessed for OS surrogacy using Prentice criteria, proportion of treatment effect explained (PTE), and proportion of variation explained. Men treated with enzalutamide had improved OS (hazard ratio, 0.63; P 19.0; P .20). PSA declines of any, ≥30%, and ≥50% following enzalutamide were associated with greater clinical and pain response and improvements in PFS and OS. Surrogacy of PSA decline for OS was not fully established, possibly due to lack of PSA declines with placebo, and discordant results between PSA and imaging responses over time, and because some declines were not durable due to rapid resistance development. However, a lack of PSA decline by 90 days following enzalutamide treatment was a poor prognosis indicator in this setting. Conclusions from sensitivity analyses of maximal PSA decline from baseline over the entire treatment period are consistent with PSA declines restricted to the first 90 days. Cancer 2017;123:2303-2311. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

  16. Clinical outcomes and survival surrogacy studies of prostate‐specific antigen declines following enzalutamide in men with metastatic castration‐resistant prostate cancer previously treated with docetaxel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Fred; Phung, De; Dmuchowski, Carl; Shore, Neal D.; Fizazi, Karim; Hirmand, Mohammad; Forer, David; Scher, Howard I.; Bono, Johann De

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND In the AFFIRM trial, enzalutamide significantly increased overall survival (OS) for men with metastatic castration‐resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) after chemotherapy versus placebo and significantly decreased prostate‐specific antigen (PSA) levels. The goal of this post hoc analysis was to associate levels of PSA decline from baseline after enzalutamide with clinical outcomes in the postchemotherapy mCRPC setting. METHODS Men in the AFFIRM trial (n = 1199) were grouped by maximal PSA decline in the first 90 days of treatment. Kaplan‐Meier estimates evaluated the association of defined PSA changes from baseline with OS, progression‐free survival (PFS), radiographic PFS (rPFS), and pain response. Each PSA decline category was assessed for OS surrogacy using Prentice criteria, proportion of treatment effect explained (PTE), and proportion of variation explained. RESULTS Men treated with enzalutamide had improved OS (hazard ratio, 0.63; P 19.0; P .20). CONCLUSIONS PSA declines of any, ≥30%, and ≥50% following enzalutamide were associated with greater clinical and pain response and improvements in PFS and OS. Surrogacy of PSA decline for OS was not fully established, possibly due to lack of PSA declines with placebo, and discordant results between PSA and imaging responses over time, and because some declines were not durable due to rapid resistance development. However, a lack of PSA decline by 90 days following enzalutamide treatment was a poor prognosis indicator in this setting. Conclusions from sensitivity analyses of maximal PSA decline from baseline over the entire treatment period are consistent with PSA declines restricted to the first 90 days. Cancer 2017;123:2303–2311. © 2017 American Cancer Society. PMID:28171710

  17. Forest decline of the world: A linkage with air pollution and global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2009-12-29

    Dec 29, 2009 ... forests of Central Europe, Eastern North America and the Pacific ... permit the reader to have general idea about forest decline. DEFINITION OF FOREST DECLINE. Definition of forest decline is not founded on a universal.

  18. Declining Radial Growth Response of Coastal Forests to Hurricanes and Nor'easters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Arnold; Rollinson, Christine R.; Kearney, William S.; Dietze, Michael C.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2018-03-01

    The Mid-Atlantic coastal forests in Virginia are stressed by episodic disturbance from hurricanes and nor'easters. Using annual tree ring data, we adopt a dendroclimatic and statistical modeling approach to understand the response and resilience of a coastal pine forest to extreme storm events, over the past few decades. Results indicate that radial growth of trees in the study area is influenced by age, regional climate trends, and individual tree effects but dominated periodically by growth disturbance due to storms. We evaluated seven local extreme storm events to understand the effect of nor'easters and hurricanes on radial growth. A general decline in radial growth was observed in the year of the extreme storm and 3 years following it, after which the radial growth started recovering. The decline in radial growth showed a statistically significant correlation with the magnitude of the extreme storm (storm surge height and wind speed). This study contributes to understanding declining tree growth response and resilience of coastal forests to past disturbances. Given the potential increase in hurricanes and storm surge severity in the region, this can help predict vegetation response patterns to similar disturbances in the future.

  19. Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi-arid forests of Inner Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongyan; Park Williams, A; Allen, Craig D; Guo, Dali; Wu, Xiuchen; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Liang, Eryuan; Sandanov, Denis V; Yin, Yi; Qi, Zhaohuan; Badmaeva, Natalya K

    2013-08-01

    Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi-arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi-arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi-arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming-induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi-arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree-ring widths. These ring-width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi-arid sites than at semi-humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007-2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Anticholinergic drug use is associated with episodic memory decline in older adults without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papenberg, Goran; Bäckman, Lars; Fratiglioni, Laura; Laukka, Erika J; Fastbom, Johan; Johnell, Kristina

    2017-07-01

    Anticholinergic drug use is common in older adults and has been related to increased dementia risk. This suggests that users of these drugs may experience accelerated cognitive decline. So far, however, longitudinal data on this topic are absent and the available evidence is inconclusive with respect to effects on specific cognitive domains due to suboptimal control of confounding variables. We investigated whether anticholinergic medication use is associated with cognitive decline over 6 years in a population-based study of older adults (aged 60-90; n = 1473) without dementia. We found that users (n = 29) declined more on episodic memory over 6 years compared to nonusers (n = 1418). These results were independent of age, sex, education, overall drug intake, physical activity, depression, cardiovascular risk burden, and cardiovascular disease. By contrast, anticholinergic drug use was unrelated to performance in processing speed, semantic memory, short-term memory, verbal fluency, and global cognition (the Mini-Mental-State Examination). Our results suggest that effects of anticholinergics may be particularly detrimental to episodic memory in older adults, which supports the assertion that the cholinergic system plays an important role in episodic memory formation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Climate Change Predominantly Caused U.S. Soil Water Storage Decline from 2003 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Ma, C.; Song, X.; Gao, L.; Liu, M.; Xu, X.

    2016-12-01

    The water storage in soils is a fundamental resource for natural ecosystems and human society, while it is highly variable due to its complicated controlling factors in a changing climate; therefore, understanding water storage variation and its controlling factors is essential for sustaining human society, which relies on water resources. Although we are confident for water availability at global scale, the regional-scale water storage and its controlling factors are not fully understood. A number of researchers have reported that water resources are expected to diminish as climate continues warming in the 21stcentury, which will further influence human and ecological systems. However, few studies to date have fully quantitatively examined the water balances and its individual controlling mechanisms in the conterminous US. In this study, we integrated the time-series data of water storage and evapotranspiration derived from satellite imageries, regional meteorological data, and social-economic water consumption, to quantify water storage dynamics and its controlling factors across the conterminous US from 2003 to 2014. The water storage decline was found in majority of conterminous US, with the largest decline in southwestern US. Net atmospheric water input, which is difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, could explain more than 50% of the inter-annual variation of water storage variation in majority of US with minor contributions from human water consumption. Climate change, expressed as precipitation decreases and warming, made dominant contribution to the water storage decline in the conterminous U.S. from 2003 to 2014.

  2. Lobar microbleeds are associated with a decline in executive functioning in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Irene B; Gu, Yian; Guzaman, Vanessa A; Wiegman, Anne F; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Luchsinger, José A; Viswanathan, Anand; Martinez-Ramirez, Sergi; Greenberg, Steven M; Mayeux, Richard; Brickman, Adam M

    2014-01-01

    Normal aging is associated with a decline in cognitive abilities, particularly in the domains of psychomotor speed and executive functioning. However, 'aging,' per se, is not a cause of cognitive decline but rather a variable that likely captures multiple accumulating biological changes over time that collectively affect mental abilities. Recent work has focused on the role of cerebrovascular disease as one of the biological changes. In the current study, we examined whether lobar microbleeds - magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) signal voids due to hemosiderin deposits secondary to cerebral amyloid angiopathy - are associated with cognitive decline in normal aging. Previous studies that reported a relationship between the presence of lobar microbleeds and decreased cognitive abilities have been primarily cross-sectional. Here, we used a retrospective longitudinal design to examine whether the presence of lobar microbleeds is associated with the rate of cognitive decline among non-demented older adults. Participants came from an ongoing longitudinal community-based aging study, in which subjects are evaluated at 18-24 months intervals and received a full medical, neurological, and neuropsychological examination at each of the follow-up visits. Gradient echo MRI scans were available on 197 non-demented participants (mean age: 84.15 ± 5.02 years). Microbleeds were rated visually on axial view and divided into subcortical (basal ganglia, cerebellum) and lobar (frontal, temporal, parietal, occipital lobe) regions, and confirmed with coronal and sagittal views to exclude artifacts. Cognition was assessed with a neuropsychological battery, providing summary scores for memory, language, executive, and visuospatial abilities. Using general estimating equations (GEE), we compared cognition cross-sectionally between individuals with 2 or more (n = 11) and fewer than 2 (n = 186) lobar microbleeds and examined longitudinal cognitive change beginning 9.47 ± 3.13 years before the

  3. Diabetes and Cognitive Decline in Older Adults: The Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palta, Priya; Carlson, Michelle C; Crum, Rosa M; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Sharrett, A Richey; Yasar, Sevil; Nahin, Richard L; DeKosky, Steven T; Snitz, Beth; Lopez, Oscar; Williamson, Jeff D; Furberg, Curt D; Rapp, Stephen R; Golden, Sherita Hill

    2017-12-12

    Previous studies have shown that individuals with diabetes exhibit accelerated cognitive decline. However, methodological limitations have limited the quality of this evidence. Heterogeneity in study design, cognitive test administration, and methods of analysis of cognitive data have made it difficult to synthesize and translate findings to practice. We analyzed longitudinal data from the Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory Study to test our hypothesis that older adults with diabetes have greater test-specific and domain-specific cognitive declines compared to older adults without diabetes. Tests of memory, visuo-spatial construction, language, psychomotor speed, and executive function were administered. Test scores were standardized to z-scores and averaged to yield domain scores. Linear random effects models were used to compare baseline differences and changes over time in test and domain scores among individuals with and without diabetes. Among the 3,069 adults, aged 72-96 years, 9.3% reported diabetes. Over a median follow-up of 6.1 years, participants with diabetes exhibited greater baseline differences in a test of executive function (trail making test, Part B) and greater declines in a test of language (phonemic verbal fluency). For the composite cognitive domain scores, participants with diabetes exhibited lower baseline executive function and global cognition domain scores, but no significant differences in the rate of decline. Identifying cognitive domains most affected by diabetes can lead to targeted risk modification, possibly in the form of lifestyle interventions such as diet and physical activity, which we know to be beneficial for improving vascular risk factors, such as diabetes, and therefore may reduce the risk of executive dysfunction and possible dementia. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Energy intensity decline implications for stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lightfoot, H.D.; Green, C.

    2002-01-01

    By calculating the amount of carbon-free energy required to stabilize the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at some level, such as 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 2100, the authors estimate the appropriate rate of world average annual energy intensity decline. The roles played by energy efficiency and long term sectoral changes like shifts in economic activity from high energy intensity sectors or industries to low energy intensity sectors or industries are distinguished. Advances in technology and better and improved procedures, as well as a broader adoption of more efficient technologies currently available are included in the improvements made in energy efficiency. The objective was, for the period 1990 to 2100 (110 years), to estimate the potential energy efficiency increase for world electricity generation. It is noted that electricity generation represents 38 per cent of world energy consumption in 1995, while transportation accounts for 19 per cent and residential, industrial and commercial uses account for 43 per cent. In 2100, it is expected that the overall average decline in energy intensity will be 40.1 per cent of that of 1990, according to the results obtained. Looked at from another perspective, it represents an average annual rate of energy intensity decline of 0.83 per cent for 110 years. Between 0.16 and 0.30 per cent could be added to the impact of sectoral changes on the average annual rate of decline in energy intensity, while 0.83 per cent would be attributable to improvements in energy efficiency, as shown by sensitivity analysis. 33 refs., 9 tabs., 1 fig

  5. Warm summer nights and the growth decline of shore pine in Southeast Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Patrick F.; Mulvey, Robin L.; Brownlee, Annalis H.; Barrett, Tara M.; Pattison, Robert R.

    2015-12-01

    Shore pine, which is a subspecies of lodgepole pine, was a widespread and dominant tree species in Southeast Alaska during the early Holocene. At present, the distribution of shore pine in Alaska is restricted to coastal bogs and fens, likely by competition with Sitka spruce and Western hemlock. Monitoring of permanent plots as part of the United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program identified a recent loss of shore pine biomass in Southeast Alaska. The apparent loss of shore pine is concerning, because its presence adds a vertical dimension to coastal wetlands, which are the richest plant communities of the coastal temperate rainforest in Alaska. In this study, we examined the shore pine tree-ring record from a newly established plot network throughout Southeast Alaska and explored climate-growth relationships. We found a steep decline in shore pine growth from the early 1960s to the present. Random Forest regression revealed a strong correlation between the decline in shore pine growth and the rise in growing season diurnal minimum air temperature. Warm summer nights, cool daytime temperatures and a reduced diurnal temperature range are associated with greater cloud cover in Southeast Alaska. This suite of conditions could lead to unfavorable tree carbon budgets (reduced daytime photosynthesis and greater nighttime respiration) and/or favor infection by foliar pathogens, such as Dothistroma needle blight, which has recently caused widespread tree mortality on lodgepole pine plantations in British Columbia. Further field study that includes experimental manipulation (e.g., fungicide application) will be necessary to identify the proximal cause(s) of the growth decline. In the meantime, we anticipate continuation of the shore pine growth decline in Southeast Alaska.

  6. Opportunities for New Insights on the Life-Course Risks and Outcomes of Cognitive Decline in the Kavli HUMAN Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langa, Kenneth M; Cutler, David

    2015-09-01

    The Kavli HUMAN Project (KHP) will provide groundbreaking insights into how biological, medical, and social factors interact and impact the risks for cognitive decline from birth through older age. It will richly measure the effect of cognitive decline on the ability to perform key activities of daily living. In addition, due to its family focus, the KHP will measure the impact on family members, including the amount of time that family members spend providing care to older adults with dementia. It will also clarify the division of caregiving duties among family members and the effects on caregivers' work, family life, and balance thereof. At the same time, for care that the family cannot provide, it will clarify the extent to which cognitive decline impacts healthcare utilization and end-of-life decision making.

  7. Interplay between financial assets and social relations on decline in physical function and mortality among older people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Terese Sara Høj; Lund, Rikke; Siersma, Volkert Dirk

    2017-01-01

    It is well established that socioeconomic position (SEP) and social relations impact physical function and mortality in old age. Due to differential vulnerability, few social relations may lead to greater decline in physical function and mortality among older people with low compared to high SEP....... The aim was to investigate whether older people with few social relations experience greater decline in physical function and mortality when also subject to low financial assets? The study population included 4060 older people aged 75 or 80 years at baseline in 1998–1999. Social relations at baseline...... and physical function at baseline and after 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5 years were obtained from questionnaires. Financial assets at baseline and mortality during 10 years of follow-up were obtained from registers. Analyses of the associations between financial assets combined with social relations and decline...

  8. Individual testosterone decline and future mortality risk in men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmboe, Stine Agergaard; Skakkebaek, Niels E.; Juul, Anders

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Male aging is characterized by a decline in testosterone (T) levels with a substantial variability between subjects. However, it is unclear whether differences in age-related changes in T are associated with general health. We investigated associations between mortality and intra...

  9. Do Declining Discount Rates lead to Time Inconsistent Economic Advice?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anders Chr.

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses the risk of time inconsistency in economic appraisals related to the use of hyperbolic discounting (declining discount rates) instead of exponential discounting (constant discount rate). Many economists are uneasy about the prospects of potential time inconsistency. The paper...

  10. Pathogenicity of Leptographium Species Associated with Loblolly Pine Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    L. G. Eckhardt; J. P. Jones; Kier D. Klepzig

    2004-01-01

    Freshly lifted seedlings and 21-year-old trees of loblolly pine were wound-inoculated with Leptographium species recovered from the soil and/or roots of trees with loblolly decline symptoms in central Alabama. Seedlings inoculated with L. procerum in the greenhouse produced significantly fewer root initials and a smaller root mass than control...

  11. Biomechanical analysis of the single-leg decline squat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwerver, J.; Bredeweg, S. W.; Hof, A. L.

    Background: The single-leg squat on a 25 decline board has been described as a clinical assessment tool and as a rehabilitation exercise for patients with patellar tendinopathy. Several assumptions have been made about its working mechanism on patellar load and patellofemoral forces, but these are

  12. Trajectories of cognitive decline in different types of dementia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, L.L.; van Harten, A.C.; Pijnenburg, Y.A.L.; Koedam, E.L.G.E.; Bouwman, F.H.; Sistermans, N.; Reuling, I.E.W.; Prins, N.D.; Lemstra, A.W.; Scheltens, P.; van der Flier, W.M.

    2015-01-01

    Background. To investigate trajectories of cognitive decline in patients with different types of dementia compared to controls in a longitudinal study. Method. In 199 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), 10 with vascular dementia (VaD), 26 with dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), 20 with behavioural

  13. Research Note Testing for a decline in secondary productivity under ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We suggest that this counterintuitive result reflects the combing out, and therefore loss, of hair in the densely vegetated site. This study failed to demonstrate a decline in secondary productivity in desertified thicket and highlights the importance of replicating such studies in space and time. African Journal of Range & Forage ...

  14. Toxin production by Fusarium solani from declining citrus plants and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The highest Fusarium sp. followed by Aspergillus, Phytophthora, Pythium, Penicillium and Alternaria species were remote from the collected samples of roots and soil from the four tehsils of Sargodha district of Pakistan. The maximum Fusarium sp. was isolated from the roots of declining citrus trees from tehsil Bhalwal ...

  15. Pollinator species richness: Are the declines slowing down?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom J. M. Van Dooren

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Changes in pollinator abundances and diversity are of major concern. A recent study inferred that pollinator species richnesses are decreasing more slowly in recent decades in several taxa and European countries. A more careful interpretation of these results reveals that this conclusion cannot be drawn and that we can only infer that declines decelerate for bees (Anthophila in the Netherlands.

  16. Autopsy rates in the Netherlands: 35 years of decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.M. Blokker (Britt); A.C. Weustink (Annick); M.G.M. Hunink (Myriam); Oosterhuis, J.W. (J. Wolter)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractObjective: Although the autopsy still is a valuable tool in health statistics, health care quality control, medical education, and biomedical research, autopsy rates have been declining worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine trends of overall, clinical and forensic autopsy rates

  17. CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL POPULATION DECLINE FOR PRIMARY SCHOOLS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haartsen, Tialda; Van Wissen, Leo

    During the past few years, the Dutch education system has been confronted with a sharp decline in the number of pupils. Especially in rural villages, inhabitants fear for the closure of their local primary school, which is perceived as a very negative development for local village life. This paper

  18. Motivational decline and recovery in higher education STEM courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Anna M.; Wendel, Paul J.; Esson, Joan M.; Plank, Kathryn M.

    2018-06-01

    Decline in student motivation is a concern for STEM education, especially for underrepresented groups in the sciences. Using the Science Motivation Questionnaire II, 41 foundational STEM courses were surveyed at the beginning and end of each semester in an academic year at a small primarily undergraduate university. Significant pre- to post-semester declines were observed in each of five measured motivational factors (Intrinsic motivation, Career motivation, Self determination, Self-efficacy, and Grade motivation), with effect sizes ranging from 0.21 to 0.41. However, in the second semester pre-survey, four motivational factors rebounded, including three returning to initial levels, suggesting that the observed motivational decline is not long-lasting. Analysis suggests that declines are not related to survey fatigue or student demographics, but rather to grades and, in the case of one motivational factor, to academic field. These findings suggest that a refocus on grading practices across STEM fields may influence student motivation and persistence in STEM.

  19. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Mote

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Our best estimates of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State indicate a substantial (roughly 15–35% decline from mid-century to 2006, with larger declines at low elevations and smaller declines or increases at high elevations. This range of values includes estimates from observations and hydrologic modeling, reflects a range of starting points between about 1930 and 1970 and also reflects uncertainties about sampling. The most important sampling issue springs from the fact that half the 1 April SWE in the Cascades is found below about 1240 m, altitudes at which sampling was poor before 1945. Separating the influences of temperature and precipitation on 1 April SWE in several ways, it is clear that long-term trends are dominated by trends in temperature, whereas variability in precipitation adds "noise" to the time series. Consideration of spatial and temporal patterns of change rules out natural variations like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as the sole cause of the decline. Regional warming has clearly played a role, but it is not yet possible to quantify how much of that regional warming is related to greenhouse gas emissions.

  20. LITERATURE AND LIFE: THE DECLINE AND FALL OF APARTHEID ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Africa, all areas of life were influenced by "the politics of race"2 during the apart- heid era. In her imaginative rendering of South African society, Gordimer has depicted the various stages of the apartheid system from its introduction in the late forties and fifties; entrenchment in the sixties and seventies; gradual decline in the ...

  1. Evaluating Functional Decline in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenblum, Sara; Weiss, Patrice L.

    2010-01-01

    Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a disease with a wide-ranging impact on functional status. The aim of the study was to examine the added value of simultaneously evaluating fatigue, personal ADL and handwriting performance as indicators for functional decline among patients with MS. Participants were 50 outpatients with MS and 26 matched healthy…

  2. Linking performance decline to choking: players' perceptions in basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryer, Ashley Marie; Tenenbaum, Gershon; Chow, Graig M

    2018-02-01

    This study was aimed at examining how basketball players view unexpected performance errors in basketball, and under what conditions they perceive them as choking. Fifty-three basketball players were randomly assigned into 2 groups (game half) to evaluate the linkage between performance decline and choking as a function of game-time, score gap and game half. Within each group, players viewed 8 scenario clips, which featured a different player conducting an error, and subsequently rated the extent of performance decline, the instance of choking and the salience of various performance attributions regarding the error. The analysis revealed that choking was most salient in the 2nd half of the game, but an error was perceived as choking more saliently in the beginning of the 2nd half. This trend was also shown for players' perception of performance decline. Players' ratings of the attributions assigned to errors, however, revealed that during the end of the 2nd half, time pressure and lack of concentration were the causes of errors. Overall, the results provide evidence towards a conceptual framework linking performance decline to the perception of choking, and that errors conducted by players are perceived as choking when there is not a salient reason to suggest its occurrence.

  3. Depressive symptoms predict slow cognitive decline in mild dementia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janzing, J.G.E.; Naarding, P.; Eling, P.A.T.M.

    2005-01-01

    Depression may be a prognostic marker of subsequent cognitive decline in patients with dementia. Earlier investigations did not find support for this hypothesis, but these considered mainly syndromal depression. In this prospective study, 32 subjects with mild dementia were followed up for 12

  4. Managing Decline in Rural School Systems: Program Organization and Delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sackney, L. E.

    Organizational theory offers rural school administrators several ways of thinking about retrenchment made necessary by declining enrollment. Obstacles to innovative responses to retrenchment include a shift in how organizations are perceived: from closed systems in which rational decisions are made about changes, to open systems in which…

  5. Declining Enrollments: A New Dilemma for Educators. Fastback 116.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keough, William F., Jr.

    Twenty years after the baby boom, U.S. population is falling and school enrollment is declining. Contrary to public expectations, smaller enrollment does not mean smaller school budgets, and balancing the educational budget will require cutting programs, closing schools, and reducing teacher force. The experience of the East Meadow (New York)…

  6. Evidence of disease-related amphibian decline in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muths, Erin; Corn, Paul Stephen; Pessier, Allan P.; Green, D. Earl

    2003-01-01

    The recent discovery of a pathogenic fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) associated with declines of frogs in the American and Australian tropics, suggests that at least the proximate cause, may be known for many previously unexplained amphibian declines. We have monitored boreal toads in Colorado since 1991 at four sites using capturea??recapture of adults and counts of egg masses to examine the dynamics of this metapopulation. Numbers of male toads declined in 1996 and 1999 with annual survival rate averaging 78% from 1991 to 1994, 45% in 1995 and 3% between 1998 and 1999. Numbers of egg masses also declined. An etiological diagnosis of chytridiomycosis consistent with infections by the genus Batrachochytrium was made in six wild adult toads. Characteristic histomorphological features (i.e. intracellular location, shape of thalli, presence of discharge tubes and rhizoids) of chytrid organisms, and host tissue response (acanthosis and hyperkeratosis) were observed in individual toads. These characteristics were indistinguishable from previously reported mortality events associated with chytrid fungus. We also observed epizootiological features consistent with mortality events associated with chytrid fungus: an increase in the ratio of female:male toads captured, an apparent spread of mortalities within the metapopulation and mortalities restricted to post metamorphic animals. Eleven years of population data suggest that this metapopulation of toads is in danger of extinction, pathological and epizootiological evidence indicates that B. dendrobatidis has played a proximate role in this process

  7. Invasive alien predator causes rapid declines of native European ladybirds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roy, Helen E.; Adriaens, Tim; Isaac, Nick J.B.

    2012-01-01

    Aim Invasive alien species (IAS) are recognized as major drivers of biodiversity loss, but few causal relationships between IAS and species declines have been documented. In this study, we compare the distribution (Belgium and Britain) and abundance (Belgium, Britain and Switzerland) of formerly...

  8. Decline in oral perception from 20 to 70 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canetta, R

    1977-12-01

    120 adults were given a task to determine whether performance on an oral perception task declines with increasing chronological age. Subjects in their 70's performed significantly worse than those in their 60's and younger. This loss of oral perceptual skills is considered relevant to the remediation and training of older individuals with difficulties in speech articulation.

  9. Competitive actions of small firms in a declining market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew Bumgardner; Urs Buehlmann; Albert Schuler; Jeff Crissey

    2011-01-01

    Small firms, through their flexibility advantages and closeness to customers, potentially can increase their sales volume in economic downturns. The decline in U.S. housing construction (beginning in 2006) provided an opportunity to develop and test four hypotheses predicting the attributes and marketing actions associated with successful companies supplying housing...

  10. Sobering up: A Quantitative Review of Temporal Declines in Expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeny, Kate; Krizan, Zlatan

    2013-01-01

    Although people's outlook on the future tends to be characterized by hope and optimism, over time this outlook often becomes more dire. We review multiple theoretical accounts of this tendency to "sober up" as feedback about outcomes draws near, and we explicate factors critical to promoting these temporal declines in expectations. We then…

  11. Public Libraries and the Decline of the Democratic Dogma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Michael H.

    1976-01-01

    We are now witnessing what I prefer to call the decline of the democratic dogma in this country; the people seem to be losing their unmitigated faith in the basic and most cherished of American beliefs; their faith in the value of universal public enlightenment. (Author)

  12. With the worldwide decline in conventional finfish stocks, fishers are ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    With the worldwide decline in conventional finfish stocks, fishers are redirecting their attention to alter- native stocks, in particular invertebrates (Perry et al. 1999). Initiatives towards developing small-scale commercial fisheries, aimed at supporting previously disadvantaged fishers and targeting previously under- exploited ...

  13. Basal ganglia calcification as a putative cause for cognitive decline

    OpenAIRE

    de Oliveira, João Ricardo Mendes; de Oliveira, Matheus Fernandes

    2013-01-01

    ABSTRACT Basal ganglia calcifications (BGC) may be present in various medical conditions, such as infections, metabolic, psychiatric and neurological diseases, associated with different etiologies and clinical outcomes, including parkinsonism, psychosis, mood swings and dementia. A literature review was performed highlighting the main neuropsychological findings of BGC, with particular attention to clinical reports of cognitive decline. Neuroimaging studies combined with neuropsychological an...

  14. Are neonicotinoid insecticides driving declines of widespread butterflies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre S. Gilburn

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been widespread concern that neonicotinoid pesticides may be adversely impacting wild and managed bees for some years, but recently attention has shifted to examining broader effects they may be having on biodiversity. For example in the Netherlands, declines in insectivorous birds are positively associated with levels of neonicotinoid pollution in surface water. In England, the total abundance of widespread butterfly species declined by 58% on farmed land between 2000 and 2009 despite both a doubling in conservation spending in the UK, and predictions that climate change should benefit most species. Here we build models of the UK population indices from 1985 to 2012 for 17 widespread butterfly species that commonly occur at farmland sites. Of the factors we tested, three correlated significantly with butterfly populations. Summer temperature and the index for a species the previous year are both positively associated with butterfly indices. By contrast, the number of hectares of farmland where neonicotinoid pesticides are used is negatively associated with butterfly indices. Indices for 15 of the 17 species show negative associations with neonicotinoid usage. The declines in butterflies have largely occurred in England, where neonicotinoid usage is at its highest. In Scotland, where neonicotinoid usage is comparatively low, butterfly numbers are stable. Further research is needed urgently to show whether there is a causal link between neonicotinoid usage and the decline of widespread butterflies or whether it simply represents a proxy for other environmental factors associated with intensive agriculture.

  15. Gas production and decline rates in the province of Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samson, L.A.

    1999-01-01

    A detailed study was conducted to evaluate the gas production decline rates in Alberta. The study examined the producing gas wells that were place in production between 1990 and 1997. Three major assumptions were used to determine the number of wells necessary to meet future market demand. These were: (1) reserves have been declining at greater rates in the past several years. The current rate of decline is 12 per cent, (2) new reserves added in future will produce at 5.1 E6M3 per year, and (3) the decline rates for new gas wells will be 27 per cent in the first year, 16 per cent in the second year, 12 per cent in the third year and thereafter. With this information, the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board estimates that the annual total deliveries of gas from Alberta in the year 2002 will be 177.4 E9M3 compared to 127 E9M3 in 1997. In order to meet this supply, drilling activity for successful gas wells will have to double the 1997 rate because it is predicted that more than 6400 new wells will be needed per year to meet future demand. 2 refs., 2 tabs., 20 figs

  16. Pesticides and Population Declines of California Alpine Frogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured ...

  17. Measuring the meltdown: drivers of global amphibian extinction and decline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navjot S Sodhi

    Full Text Available Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545 or had increased (n = 28. These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation.

  18. Measuring the meltdown: drivers of global amphibian extinction and decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sodhi, Navjot S; Bickford, David; Diesmos, Arvin C; Lee, Tien Ming; Koh, Lian Pin; Brook, Barry W; Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2008-02-20

    Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species) to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545) or had increased (n = 28). These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation.

  19. Pesticide acute toxicity is a better correlate of U.S. grassland bird declines than agricultural intensification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Mineau

    Full Text Available Common agricultural birds are in decline, both in Europe and in North America. Evidence from Europe suggests that agricultural intensification and, for some species, the indirect effects of pesticides mediated through a loss of insect food resource is in part responsible. On a state-by-state basis for the conterminous Unites States (U.S., we looked at several agronomic variables to predict the number of grassland species increasing or declining according to breeding bird surveys conducted between 1980 and 2003. Best predictors of species declines were the lethal risk from insecticide use modeled from pesticide impact studies, followed by the loss of cropped pasture. Loss of permanent pasture or simple measures of agricultural intensification such as the proportion of land under crop or the proportion of farmland treated with herbicides did not explain bird declines as well. Because the proportion of farmland treated with insecticides, and more particularly the lethal risk to birds from the use of current insecticides feature so prominently in the best models, this suggests that, in the U.S. at least, pesticide toxicity to birds should be considered as an important factor in grassland bird declines.

  20. Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bronwyn A Fancourt

    Full Text Available The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their

  1. Functional brain imaging of episodic memory decline in ageing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyberg, L

    2017-01-01

    The episodic long-term memory system supports remembering of events. It is considered to be the most age-sensitive system, with an average onset of decline around 60 years of age. However, there is marked interindividual variability, such that some individuals show faster than average change and others show no or very little change. This variability may be related to the risk of developing dementia, with elevated risk for individuals with accelerated episodic memory decline. Brain imaging with functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signalling or positron emission tomography (PET) has been used to reveal the brain bases of declining episodic memory in ageing. Several studies have demonstrated a link between age-related episodic memory decline and the hippocampus during active mnemonic processing, which is further supported by studies of hippocampal functional connectivity in the resting state. The hippocampus interacts with anterior and posterior neocortical regions to support episodic memory, and alterations in hippocampus-neocortex connectivity have been shown to contribute to impaired episodic memory. Multimodal MRI studies and more recently hybrid MRI/PET studies allow consideration of various factors that can influence the association between the hippocampal BOLD signal and memory performance. These include neurovascular factors, grey and white matter structural alterations, dopaminergic neurotransmission, amyloid-Β and glucose metabolism. Knowledge about the brain bases of episodic memory decline can guide interventions to strengthen memory in older adults, particularly in those with an elevated risk of developing dementia, with promising results for combinations of cognitive and physical stimulation. © 2016 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

  2. Dietary Patterns, Cognitive Decline, and Dementia: A Systematic Review12

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Rest, Ondine; Berendsen, Agnes AM; Haveman-Nies, Annemien; de Groot, Lisette CPGM

    2015-01-01

    Nutrition is an important modifiable risk factor that plays a role in the strategy to prevent or delay the onset of dementia. Research on nutritional effects has until now mainly focused on the role of individual nutrients and bioactive components. However, the evidence for combined effects, such as multinutrient approaches, or a healthy dietary pattern, such as the Mediterranean diet, is growing. These approaches incorporate the complexity of the diet and possible interaction and synergy between nutrients. Over the past few years, dietary patterns have increasingly been investigated to better understand the link between diet, cognitive decline, and dementia. In this systematic review we provide an overview of the literature on human studies up to May 2014 that examined the role of dietary patterns (derived both a priori as well as a posteriori) in relation to cognitive decline or dementia. The results suggest that better adherence to a Mediterranean diet is associated with less cognitive decline, dementia, or Alzheimer disease, as shown by 4 of 6 cross-sectional studies, 6 of 12 longitudinal studies, 1 trial, and 3 meta-analyses. Other healthy dietary patterns, derived both a priori (e.g., Healthy Diet Indicator, Healthy Eating Index, and Program National Nutrition Santé guideline score) and a posteriori (e.g., factor analysis, cluster analysis, and reduced rank regression), were shown to be associated with reduced cognitive decline and/or a reduced risk of dementia as shown by all 6 cross-sectional studies and 6 of 8 longitudinal studies. More conclusive evidence is needed to reach more targeted and detailed guidelines to prevent or postpone cognitive decline. PMID:25770254

  3. Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J

    2008-11-11

    Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines

  4. Demography of Symbiotic Nitrogen-Fixing Trees Explains Their Rarity and Successional Decline in Temperate Forests in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Wenying; Menge, Duncan N L

    2016-01-01

    Symbiotic nitrogen (N) fixation is the major N input to many ecosystems. Although temperate forests are commonly N limited, symbiotic N-fixing trees ("N fixers") are rare and decline in abundance as succession proceeds-a challenging paradox that remains unexplained. Understanding demographic processes that underlie N fixers' rarity and successional decline would provide a proximate answer to the paradox. Do N fixers grow slower, die more frequently, or recruit less in temperate forests? We quantified demographic rates of N-fixing and non-fixing trees across succession using U.S. forest inventory data. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the relative contribution of each demographic process to community dynamics. Compared to non-fixers, N fixers had lower growth rates, higher mortality rates, and lower recruitment rates throughout succession. The mortality effect contributed more than the growth effect to N fixers' successional decline. Canopy and understory N fixers experienced these demographic disadvantages, indicating that factors in addition to light limitation likely contribute to N fixers' successional decline. We show that the rarity and successional decline of N-fixing trees in temperate forests is due more to their survival disadvantage than their growth disadvantage, and a recruitment disadvantage might also play a large role.

  5. (segunda parte

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José María Oliva-Martínez

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo es la continuación de otro anterior (Oliva, 2004, ambos dedicados al estudio de la importancia del pensamiento analógico en la construcción histórica de la noción de fuerza gravitatoria y del modelo de Sistema Solar. En aquella ocasión analizamos dicho papel durante el período comprendido desde las antiguas civilizaciones hasta llegar a la revolución copernicana con científicos como Copérnico, Gilbert, Kepler o el propio Galileo. En esta segunda parte, se continúa con algunos de los razonamientos analógicos proporcionados desde la vertiente mecanicista, capitaneada por Descartes y desde la tradición subsiguiente que se desarrolló en línea con la utilización del método de la analogía como criterio argumentativo (Huyghens, Hooke, Bernoulli, etc.. Dedicamos asimismo un capítulo aparte a la figura de Newton, quien continúa con dicha tradición en su intento de explicar la naturaleza de la gravitación. Finalmente se procede, a modo de síntesis, a realizar una clasificación de distintos tipos de razonamientos analógicos aportados en el desarrollo histórico en torno a estos temas, estudiando el papel científico y divulgativo de cada uno

  6. Impacts of Declining Mississippi River Sediment Load on Subaqueous Delta Front Sedimentation and Geomorphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, J. M.; Bentley, S. J.; Xu, K.; Georgiou, I. Y.; Miner, M. D.

    2016-02-01

    The Mississippi River delta system is undergoing unprecedented changes due to the effects of climate change and anthropogenic alterations to the river and its delta. Since the 1950s, the suspended sediment load of the Mississippi River has decreased by approximately 50% due to the construction of >50,000 dams in the Mississippi basin. The impact of this decreased sediment load has been observed in subaerial environments, but the impact on sedimentation and geomorphology of the subaqueous delta front has yet to be examined. To identify historic trends in sedimentation patterns, we compiled bathymetric datasets, including historical charts, industry and academic surveys, and NOAA data, collected between 1764 and 2009. Sedimentation rates are variable across the delta front, but are highest near the mouth of Southwest Pass, which carries the largest percentage of Mississippi River flow and sediment into the Gulf of Mexico. The progradation rate of Southwest Pass (measured at the 10 m depth contour) has slowed from 67 m/yr between 1764 and 1940 to 26 m/yr between 1940 and 1979, with evidence of further deceleration from 1979-2009. Decreased rates of progradation are also observed at South Pass and Pass A Loutre, with the 10 m contour retreating at rates >20 m/yr at both passes. Advancement of the delta front also decelerated in deeper water (15-90 m) offshore from Southwest Pass. In this area, from 1940-1979, depth contours advanced seaward 30 m/yr, but rates declined from 1979-2005. Furthermore, over the same area, the sediment accumulation rate decreased by 81% for the same period. The Mississippi River delta front appears to be entering a phase of decline, which will likely be accelerated by future upstream management practices. This decline has implications for offshore ecosystems, biogeochemical cycling, pollutant dispersal, mudflow hazard, and the continued use of the delta as an economic and population center.

  7. Functional decline and herpes zoster in older people: an interplay of multiple factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Herpes zoster is a frequent painful infectious disease whose incidence and severity increase with age. In older people, there is a strong bidirectional link between herpes zoster and functional decline, which refers to a decrement in ability to perform activities of daily living due to ageing and disabilities. However, the exact nature of such link remains poorly established. Based on the opinion from a multidisciplinary group of experts, we here propose a new model to account for the interplay between infection, somatic/psychiatric comorbidity, coping skills, polypharmacy, and age, which may account for the functional decline related to herpes zoster in older patients. This model integrates the risk of decompensation of underlying disease; the risk of pain becoming chronic (e.g. postherpetic neuralgia); the risk of herpes zoster non-pain complications; the detrimental impact of herpes zoster on quality of life, functioning, and mood; the therapeutic difficulties due to multimorbidity, polypharmacy, and ageing; and the role of stressful life events in the infection itself and comorbid depression. This model underlines the importance of early treatment, strengthening coping, and vaccine prevention.

  8. Implementation of Subjective Cognitive Decline criteria in research studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinuevo, José L; Rabin, Laura A.; Amariglio, Rebecca; Buckley, Rachel; Dubois, Bruno; Ellis, Kathryn A.; Ewers, Michael; Hampel, Harald; Klöppel, Stefan; Rami, Lorena; Reisberg, Barry; Saykin, Andrew J.; Sikkes, Sietske; Smart, Colette M.; Snitz, Beth E.; Sperling, Reisa; van der Flier, Wiesje M.; Wagner, Michael; Jessen, Frank

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Subjective Cognitive Decline (SCD) manifesting prior to clinical impairment could serve as a target population for early intervention trials in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). A working group, the Subjective Cognitive Decline Initiative (SCD-I), published SCD research criteria in the context of preclinical AD. To successfully apply them, a number of issues regarding assessment and implementation of SCD needed to be addressed. METHODS Members of the SCD-I met to identify and agree upon topics relevant to SCD criteria operationalization in research settings. Initial ideas and recommendations were discussed with other SCD-I working group members and modified accordingly. RESULTS Topics included SCD inclusion and exclusion criteria, together with the informant’s role in defining SCD presence and the impact of demographic factors. DISCUSSION Recommendations for the operationalization of SCD in differing research settings, with the aim of harmonization of SCD measurement across studies are proposed, to enhance comparability and generalizability across studies. PMID:27825022

  9. Publishing and Australian literature : crisis, decline or transformation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bode, Katherine

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The globalisation and consolidation of book publishing is widely seen as having negative consequences for Australian literature. Some commentators argue that this shift is detrimental to Australian literature as a whole; others identify the growth of multinational publishing conglomerates with a specific decline in Australian literary fiction. This article explores both positions, first identifying and investigating trends in Australian novel publication and comparing these to trends in the publication of novels from other countries as well as other Australian-originated literature (specifically, poetry and auto/biography. It then considers the specific case of Australian literary fiction, before looking in detail at the output of large publishers of Australian novels. This analysis reveals a recent decline in Australian novel and poetry titles, but offers a more complex picture of this trend than dominant expressions of nostalgia and alarm about the fate of Australian literature and publishing would suggest.

  10. Publishing and Australian Literature: Crisis, Decline or Transformation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine Bode

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The globalisation and consolidation of book publishing is widely seen as having negative consequences for Australian literature. Some commentators argue that this shift is detrimental to Australian literature as a whole; others identify the growth of multinational publishing conglomerates with a specific decline in Australian literary fiction. This article explores both positions, first identifying and investigating trends in Australian novel publication and comparing these to trends in the publication of novels from other countries as well as other Australian-originated literature (specifically, poetry and auto/biography. It then considers the specific case of Australian literary fiction, before looking in detail at the output of large publishers of Australian novels. This analysis reveals a recent decline in Australian novel and poetry titles, but offers a more complex picture of this trend than dominant expressions of nostalgia and alarm about the fate of Australian literature and publishing would suggest.

  11. Defining Business decline, failure and turnaround: A content analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Pretorius

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In the past, researchers have often defined failure to suit their data. This has led to a lack of comparability in research outputs. The overriding objective of this paper is to propose a universal definition for the failure phenomenon. Clear definitions are a prerequisite for exploring major constructs, their relationship to failure and the context and processes involved. The study reports on the core definitions of the failure phenomenon and identifies core criteria for distinguishing between them. It places decline, failure and turnaround in perspective and highlights level of distress and turnaround as key moderating elements. It distinguishes the failure phenomenon from controversial synonyms such as closure, accidental bankruptcy and closure for alternative motives. Key words and phrases: business decline, failure, turnaround, level of distress

  12. Does conservation on farmland contribute to halting the biodiversity decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleijn, David; Rundlöf, Maj; Scheper, Jeroen; Smith, Henrik G; Tscharntke, Teja

    2011-09-01

    Biodiversity continues to decline, despite the implementation of international conservation conventions and measures. To counteract biodiversity loss, it is pivotal to know how conservation actions affect biodiversity trends. Focussing on European farmland species, we review what is known about the impact of conservation initiatives on biodiversity. We argue that the effects of conservation are a function of conservation-induced ecological contrast, agricultural land-use intensity and landscape context. We find that, to date, only a few studies have linked local conservation effects to national biodiversity trends. It is therefore unknown how the extensive European agri-environmental budget for conservation on farmland contributes to the policy objectives to halt biodiversity decline. Based on this review, we identify new research directions addressing this important knowledge gap. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Circulating MKRN3 Levels Decline During Puberty in Healthy Boys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busch, Alexander S.; Hagen, Casper P; Almstrup, Kristian

    2016-01-01

    CONTEXT: Initiation and progression of puberty requires concerted action of hypothalamic activating and inhibiting factors. Recently, cases of familial central precocious puberty have been linked to loss-of-function mutations of makorin RING-finger protein 3 (MKRN3) indicating a pivotal inhibitory.......8-11.8) years at baseline followed for 6.0 (0.5-7.6) years (2006-2014) with blood sampling every 6 months. INTERVENTION: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Serum levels of MKRN3: 623 samples, median (range) 12 (2-14) per boy. RESULTS: MKRN3 levels declined before onset of puberty; the geometric mean (95% confidence...... interval) 5 years before onset of puberty vs last visit before onset of puberty was 216 (169-272) pg/mL vs 128 (118-139) pg/mL (P puberty progressed. MKRN3 levels were not associated with age at onset of puberty. CONCLUSION: Declining MKRN3...

  14. Declining resilience of ecosystem functions under biodiversity loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Tom H; Isaac, Nick J B; August, Tom A; Woodcock, Ben A; Roy, David B; Bullock, James M

    2015-12-08

    The composition of species communities is changing rapidly through drivers such as habitat loss and climate change, with potentially serious consequences for the resilience of ecosystem functions on which humans depend. To assess such changes in resilience, we analyse trends in the frequency of species in Great Britain that provide key ecosystem functions--specifically decomposition, carbon sequestration, pollination, pest control and cultural values. For 4,424 species over four decades, there have been significant net declines among animal species that provide pollination, pest control and cultural values. Groups providing decomposition and carbon sequestration remain relatively stable, as fewer species are in decline and these are offset by large numbers of new arrivals into Great Britain. While there is general concern about degradation of a wide range of ecosystem functions, our results suggest actions should focus on particular functions for which there is evidence of substantial erosion of their resilience.

  15. Progress, decline, and the public uptake of climate science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudiak-Gould, Peter

    2014-02-01

    Previous research has sought to explain public perception of climate change science in terms of individuals' "prior commitment" to such ideological stances as just-world belief, system justification, and liberalism/conservatism. One type of prior commitment that has received little formal attention in the literature is narratives of the moral trajectory of society. A theory of climate science uptake based on beliefs in societal progress or decline is more easily portable to non-Western settings; in a case study of global warming attitudes in the Marshall Islands, trajectory narratives indeed account for public belief, concern, blame, and response more aptly than existing theories, and accord well with qualitative analysis of Marshallese climate change discourse. In Western settings, progress/decline narratives may explain much of the variation in climate change attitudes previously accounted for by other ideological variables, promising a more penetrating explanation for the divergence of climate change attitudes within and between societies.

  16. Devastating decline of forest elephants in central Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiona Maisels

    Full Text Available African forest elephants- taxonomically and functionally unique-are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002-2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced.

  17. Identifying species conservation strategies to reduce disease-associated declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Converse, Sarah J.; Muths, Erin L.; Crockett, Harry J.; Mosher, Brittany A.; Bailey, Larissa L.

    2018-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a salient threat to many animal taxa, causing local and global extinctions, altering communities and ecosystem function. The EID chytridiomycosis is a prominent driver of amphibian declines, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). To guide conservation policy, we developed a predictive decision-analytic model that combines empirical knowledge of host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics with expert judgment regarding effects of management actions, to select from potential conservation strategies. We apply our approach to a boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) and Bd system, identifying optimal strategies that balance tradeoffs in maximizing toad population persistence and landscape-level distribution, while considering costs. The most robust strategy is expected to reduce the decline of toad breeding sites from 53% to 21% over 50 years. Our findings are incorporated into management policy to guide conservation planning. Our online modeling application provides a template for managers of other systems challenged by EIDs.

  18. Habitat split and the global decline of amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Carlos Guilherme; Fonseca, Carlos Roberto; Haddad, Célio Fernando Baptista; Batista, Rômulo Fernandes; Prado, Paulo Inácio

    2007-12-14

    The worldwide decline in amphibians has been attributed to several causes, especially habitat loss and disease. We identified a further factor, namely "habitat split"-defined as human-induced disconnection between habitats used by different life history stages of a species-which forces forest-associated amphibians with aquatic larvae to make risky breeding migrations between suitable aquatic and terrestrial habitats. In the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we found that habitat split negatively affects the richness of species with aquatic larvae but not the richness of species with terrestrial development (the latter can complete their life cycle inside forest remnants). This mechanism helps to explain why species with aquatic larvae have the highest incidence of population decline. These findings reinforce the need for the conservation and restoration of riparian vegetation.

  19. Climate change, multiple stressors, and the decline of ectotherms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Palmer, Brent D

    2013-08-01

    Climate change is believed to be causing declines of ectothermic vertebrates, but there is little evidence that climatic conditions associated with declines have exceeded critical (i.e., acutely lethal) maxima or minima, and most relevant studies are correlative, anecdotal, or short-term (hours). We conducted an 11-week factorial experiment to examine the effects of temperature (22 °C or 27 °C), moisture (wet or dry), and atrazine (an herbicide; 0, 4, 40, 400 μg/L exposure as embryos and larvae) on the survival, growth, behavior, and foraging rates of postmetamorphic streamside salamanders (Ambystoma barbouri), a species of conservation concern. The tested climatic conditions were between the critical maxima and minima of streamside salamanders; thus, this experiment quantified the long-term effects of climate change within the noncritical range of this species. Despite a suite of behavioral adaptations to warm and dry conditions (e.g., burrowing, refuge use, huddling with conspecifics, and a reduction in activity), streamside salamanders exhibited significant loss of mass and significant mortality in all but the cool and moist conditions, which were closest to the climatic conditions in which they are most active in nature. A temperature of 27 °C represented a greater mortality risk than dry conditions; death occurred rapidly at this temperature and more gradually under cool and dry conditions. Foraging decreased under dry conditions, which suggests there were opportunity costs to water conservation. Exposure to the herbicide atrazine additively decreased water-conserving behaviors, foraging efficiency, mass, and time to death. Hence, the hypothesis that moderate climate change can cause population declines is even more plausible under scenarios with multiple stressors. These results suggest that climate change within the noncritical range of species and pollution may reduce individual performance by altering metabolic demands, hydration, and foraging effort

  20. Cognitive decline, mortality, and organophosphorus exposure in aging Mexican Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Kimberly C; Ling, Chenxiao; Lee, Anne; To, Tu My; Cockburn, Myles; Haan, Mary; Ritz, Beate

    2018-01-01

    Cognitive impairment is a major health concern among older Mexican Americans, associated with significant morbidity and mortality, and may be influenced by environmental exposures. To investigate whether agricultural based ambient organophosphorus (OP) exposure influences 1) the rate of cognitive decline and mortality and 2) whether these associations are mediated through metabolic or inflammatory biomarkers. In a subset of older Mexican Americans from the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (n = 430), who completed modified mini-mental state exams (3MSE) up to 7 times (1998-2007), we examined the relationship between estimated ambient OP exposures and cognitive decline (linear repeated measures model) and time to dementia or being cognitively impaired but not demented (CIND) and time to mortality (cox proportional hazards model). We then explored metabolic and inflammatory biomarkers as potential mediators of these relationships (additive hazards mediation). OP exposures at residential addresses were estimated with a geographic information system (GIS) based exposure assessment tool. Participants with high OP exposure in the five years prior to baseline experienced faster cognitive decline (β = 0.038, p = 0.02) and higher mortality over follow-up (HR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.12, 3.26). The direct effect of OP exposure was estimated at 241 (95% CI = 27-455) additional deaths per 100,000 person-years, and the proportion mediated through the metabolic hormone adiponectin was estimated to be 4% 1.5-19.2). No other biomarkers were associated with OP exposure. Our study provides support for the involvement of OP pesticides in cognitive decline and mortality among older Mexican Americans, possibly through biologic pathways involving adiponectin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. [Convalescence and decline in physical function level following intensive therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, J.B.; Moller, K.; Perner, A.

    2009-01-01

    prolong convalescence after discharge. Thus, strategies to counteract neuromuscular dysfunction and to improve physical outcome may reduce the overall burden of critical illness. This review describes the most common predisposing factors and discusses preventative measures and interventions Udgivelsesdato......More patients survive critical illness, which emphasises the need to assess outcome measures other than mortality. A prolonged decline in physical function is frequently observed after discharge in the critically ill. Neuromuscular dysfunction and muscle atrophy incurred during intensive care may...

  2. Parents Who Decline HPV Vaccination: Who Later Accepts and Why?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kornides, Melanie L; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Gilkey, Melissa B

    2018-03-01

    Parental declination contributes to low human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage among US adolescents, resulting in missed opportunities for cancer prevention. We sought to characterize parents' acceptance of HPV vaccination after declination ("secondary acceptance"). In September 2016, we conducted an online survey with a national sample of parents of children ages 11 to 17 years. For those who reported having ever declined HPV vaccination for their children (n = 494), our survey assessed whether they accepted the vaccine at a subsequent visit. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess correlates of secondary acceptance. Overall, 45% of parents reported secondary acceptance of HPV vaccination, and an additional 24% intended to vaccinate in the next 12 months. In multivariable analyses, secondary acceptance was associated with receiving follow-up counseling about HPV vaccination from a health care provider (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.42-3.28). However, only 53% of parents overall reported receiving such counseling. Secondary acceptance was also associated with receiving a higher quality HPV vaccine recommendation from a provider during the initial discussion and greater satisfaction with provider communication, as well as higher vaccination confidence. Among the reasons for secondary acceptance, parents most commonly reported the child getting older (45%), learning more about HPV vaccine (34%), and receiving a provider recommendation (33%). Our findings suggest secondary acceptance of HPV vaccination is common, with more than two-thirds of parents in this national sample accepting or intending to accept HPV vaccination after declination. Providers should seek to motivate secondary acceptance by delivering repeated, high-quality recommendations for HPV vaccination. Copyright © 2017 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Preventing cognitive decline, sedentariness and malnutrition: the DOREMI approach

    OpenAIRE

    Parodi, Oberdan; Vozzi, Federico; Ferro, Erina; Fortunati, Luigi; Micheli, Alessio; Bacciu, Davide; Gallicchio, Claudio; Chessa, Stefano; Ascolese, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    All countries in Europe are experiencing an ageing of their populations, with a decrease in the number of people of working age per retiree. Health trends among the elderly are mixed: severe disability is declining in some countries but increasing in others, while mild disability and chronic disease are generally increasing. As a consequence, long-term care costs are certain to increase with the ageing of the population, unless appropriate measures are implemented and elderly people empowered...

  4. A human-driven decline in global burned area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andela, N.

    2017-12-01

    Fire regimes are changing rapidly across the globe, driven by human land management and climate. We assessed long-term trends in fire activity using multiple satellite data sets and developed a new global data set on individual fire dynamics to understand the implications of changing fire regimes. Despite warming climate, burned area declined across most of the tropics, contributing to a global decline in burned area of 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area was largest in savannas and grasslands, where agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. In tropical forests, frequent fires for deforestation and agricultural management yield a sharp rise in fire activity with the expansion of settled land uses, but the use of fire decreases with increasing investment in agricultural areas in both savanna and forested landscapes. Disparate patterns of recent socieconomic development resulted in contrasting fire trends between southern Africa (increase) and South America (decrease). A strong inverse relationship between burned area and economic development in savannas and grasslands suggests that despite potential increasing fire risk from climate change, ongoing socioeconomic development will likely sustain observed declines in fire in these ecosystems during coming decades. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. The spatiotemporal distribution of fire size, duration, speed and direction of spread provided new insights in continental scale differences in fire regimes driven by human and climatic factors. Understanding these dynamics over larger scales is critical to achieve a balance between conservation of fire-dependent ecosystems and increasing agricultural production to support growing populations that will require careful management of fire activity in human-dominated landscapes.

  5. Greenhouse and field assessment of rhizobacteria to control guava decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Macedo Almeida

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In an effort to devise a biological strategy to control guava decline, 120 rhizobacteria isolates were obtained from symptomless guava trees located in Meloidogyne enterolobii-infested orchards. Of those isolates, 44 were assessed for their potential to reduce nematode's reproduction: for each isolate, six guava stem cuttings were embedded for eight hours with bacterial suspension and transplanted. Upon development of the roots, the plants were inoculated with 2000 nematode eggs and allowed to grow for four months under greenhouse. Seedlings embedded with water, inoculated or not with the nematode, served as controls. All treatments were equivalent in the five variables that assessed plant development. Several rhizobacteria reduced (p<0.05 the final nematode population (Fp, Fp/gram of root and reproduction factor, although not to satisfactory levels. Subsequently, a two-year experiment was set up in a guava orchard affected by guava decline, in which three of the most effective rhizobacterial isolates were compared with the biological products Nemat® and Nemaplus® for their ability to reduce variables related to nematode parasitism and increase guava productivity. Seven bimonthly applications of these treatments under the tree canopy were unable to reduce nematode parasitism and increase productivity. The decline and death of some plants forced the experiment to be stopped after the first harvest. In conclusion, rhizobacteria applications seem unable to reduce the parasitism of M. enterolobii on guava plants, and even less to reduce the extensive root decay or alleviate the physiological stress suffered by trees affected by guava decline.

  6. The Decline of Coral Reefs: a Political Economy Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Samuel, Asumadu-Sarkodie

    2015-01-01

    Coral reefs provide economic services like job, food and tourism. Yet, within the past decades, there has been an overwhelming decline in the vitality of coral reefs and their ecosystem. Scientist have not be able to set the record straight regarding their scientific argument on biodiversity and ecological wealth of natural environment. Therefore, actions to recover coral reefs from destruction have proved futile. This paper will analyze the economical values, economic valuation, socioeconomi...

  7. Periodontitis and Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer?s Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Ide, Mark; Harris, Marina; Stevens, Annette; Sussams, Rebecca; Hopkins, Viv; Culliford, David; Fuller, James; Ibbett, Paul; Raybould, Rachel; Thomas, Rhodri; Puenter, Ursula; Teeling, Jessica; Perry, V. Hugh; Holmes, Clive

    2016-01-01

    Background. Periodontitis is common in the elderly and may become more common in Alzheimer’s disease because of a reduced ability to take care of oral hygiene as the disease progresses. Elevated antibodies to periodontal bacteria are associated with an increased systemic pro-inflammatory state. Elsewhere raised serum pro-inflammatory cytokines have been associated with an increased rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease. We hypothesized that periodontitis would be associated with in...

  8. Why has productivity growth declined? Productivity and public investment

    OpenAIRE

    Alicia H. Munnell

    1990-01-01

    The decline in United States productivity has been widely identified as one of the major economic problems facing the nation. This concern is understandable; productivity growth is the major determinant of the future standard of living. Economists have gone to great lengths to try to identify the reasons for the slowdown, and David Aschauer recently introduced the notion that the stock of public infrastructure, as well as the stock of private capital, may be a key to explaining changes in out...

  9. Union decline in Britain: Is chauvinism also to blame?

    OpenAIRE

    Haile, Getinet Astatike

    2012-01-01

    The paper examines if workplace gender diversity offers some explanation for the decline of unions in Britain. Using the WERS2004 linked employer-employee data and alternative econometric estimators it reports an inverse relationship between workplace union density and gender diversity. Gender and ownership status based sub-group analyses suggest the inverse relationship to be stronger for male union members and those in the private sector. Gender group size based analysis reveals a positive ...

  10. Declining urban and community tree cover in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Eric J. Greenfield

    2018-01-01

    Paired aerial photographs were interpreted to assess recent changes (c. 2009–2014) in tree, impervious and other cover types within urban/community and urban land in all 50 United States and the District of Columbia. National results indicate that tree cover in urban/community areas of the United States is on the decline at a rate of about 175,000 acres per year, which...

  11. Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

    2018-01-18

    Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of

  12. Rapid decline of the volcanically threatened Montserrat oriole.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoff M. Hilton; Phil W. Atkinson; Gerard A.L. Gray; Wayne J. Arendt; David W. Gibbons

    2003-01-01

    Prior to 1995, the Montserrat oriole (Icterus oberi) was confined to ca. 30 km2 of hill forest on the Lesser Antillean island of Montserrat, but was not listed as globally threatened. Since then, the eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano has destroyed more than half of the species’ range. Recent intensive monitoring has indicated that the species has also declined...

  13. Species decline: A perspective on extinction, recovery, and propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, J.W.

    1983-01-01

    This keynote address was presented at the Conference on the Conservation of Endangered Species in Zoological Parks and Aquariums on April 18, 1982 at the National Aquarium in Baltimore. It outlines 1) future trends in the world's environment, resources, and population; 2) factors affecting species decline; 3) reasons for preserving life forms; and 4) techniques, with emphasis on captive propagation, used to assist in species recovery.

  14. [Convalescence and decline in physical function level following intensive therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, J.B.; Moller, K.; Perner, A.

    2009-01-01

    More patients survive critical illness, which emphasises the need to assess outcome measures other than mortality. A prolonged decline in physical function is frequently observed after discharge in the critically ill. Neuromuscular dysfunction and muscle atrophy incurred during intensive care may...... prolong convalescence after discharge. Thus, strategies to counteract neuromuscular dysfunction and to improve physical outcome may reduce the overall burden of critical illness. This review describes the most common predisposing factors and discusses preventative measures and interventions Udgivelsesdato...

  15. Lithosphere stress changes due to groundwater unloading in North China Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Yajin; Zhang, Huai; Shi, Yaolin

    2015-04-01

    During the past 50 years, excessive groundwater pumping has led to the continuous decline of groundwater table in North China Plain, which becomes one of the global hotspots of groundwater depletion. Over most of the rural areas of the plain, the shallow aquifer has experienced a water-table decline of more than 15m, with greater declines up to 50m in most urban centres, such as Beijing, Tangshan, Shijiangzhuang and so forth in 1960-2000. The entire groundwater depletion area covers a total area of approximately 56,273 km2 , more than 40% of the North China Plain. The vast area of enormous groundwater exploitation in North China Plain will definitely unload the lithosphere and create stress perturbations, the problem is if the stresses change large enough to affect tectonic activities. In this essay, we set up a 3 dimensional numerical visco-elastic model to discuss the effect of groundwater over-pumping on the lithosphere deformation and stress state in North China Plain. Based on the records of total groundwater-table decline during 1960-2010 in North China Plain, we estimate the accumulated deformation and lithosphere stress due to unloading of human-induced groundwater depletion. The area in the model ranges from 34° To 42°N, and 112° To 119°E, including the major groundwater depression cones in North China Plain. According to the simulating result, the maximum surface vertical uplift caused by groundwater unloading is 8cm. Meanwhile cumulative horizontal crustal stress changes near the surface goes up to 100kPa, and up to 40kPa at 15km depth where most earthquakes occurred in this area. The tectonic compressive stress rate is about 0.25kPa per year. Therefore, the stress changes due to groundwater pumping is significant compared with the tectonic driven stress changes. As China developed rapidly since 1978, the groundwater table mainly declined after 1978. Taking the earthquake catalog in the vicinity of groundwater depression zone into consideration, we

  16. Does the structure of wood contribute to understanding the oaks decline phenomenon?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela Tulik

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Vascular cambium is a meristematic tissue which produces wood centriphugaly and phloem centripetaly. In the structure of wood and phloem, data concerning developmental processes taking place in the cambium is recorded. The history of the cambium is encoded in the dimensions, numbers and arrangements of the wood and phloem cells. For investigations, the wood is usually preferred because it is durable and such data could remain unchanged for centuries, whereas in the phloem due to distorted processes, it deranges after a few years. In broadleaves, the wood is composed of vessels, tracheids, fibers and parenchyma cells. The process of the wood formation consists of the cambial cell derivatives expansion, lignification of its walls and programmed cell death. Since the seventies of the nineteenth century, the process of declining oaks taking place in Europe on a regular basis has been observed. Oak decline is a complex process that involves interactions of both biotic and abiotic factors leading to increased trees mortality. The main goal of the studies is the examination of the structure of wood in declining oaks (Quercus robur L. in respect to physiological (conductive role of this tissue. It is known that on the level of the wood structure, water transport efficiency depends on the diameter of vessels - the main elements of the hydraulic conductivity system. Any reduction of the vessels lumen causes the reduction of the water transport to the organs of the trees body and, therefore, influences organisms survival rate. Anatomical analyses were carried out on wood samples (comprising all annual rings formed during the 30-40 years life of the analyzed trees collected at breast height from the main stem of healthy, weakened and dead oaks. The anatomical traits of the wood like as the width of the annual increments, the diameter and density of early wood vessels were measured. The results which are described in the paper by Tulik (2014 revealed that

  17. Diversification rates have declined in the Malagasy herpetofauna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scantlebury, Daniel P

    2013-09-07

    The evolutionary origins of Madagascar's biodiversity remain mysterious despite the fact that relative to land area, there is no other place with consistently high levels of species richness and endemism across a range of taxonomic levels. Most efforts to explain diversification on the island have focused on geographical models of speciation, but recent studies have begun to address the island's accumulation of species through time, although with conflicting results. Prevailing hypotheses for diversification on the island involve either constant diversification rates or scenarios where rates decline through time. Using relative-time-calibrated phylogenies for seven endemic vertebrate clades and a model-fitting framework, I find evidence that diversification rates have declined through time on Madagascar. I show that diversification rates have clearly declined throughout the history of each clade, and models invoking diversity-dependent reductions to diversification rates best explain the diversification histories for each clade. These results are consistent with the ecological theory of adaptive radiation, and, coupled with ancillary observations about ecomorphological and life-history evolution, strongly suggest that adaptive radiation was an important formative process for one of the most species-rich regions on the Earth. These results cast the Malagasy biota in a new light and provide macroevolutionary justification for conservation initiatives.

  18. Agrochemicals increase trematode infections in a declining amphibian species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Schotthoefer, Anna M; Raffel, Thomas R; Carrick, Hunter J; Halstead, Neal; Hoverman, Jason T; Johnson, Catherine M; Johnson, Lucinda B; Lieske, Camilla; Piwoni, Marvin D; Schoff, Patrick K; Beasley, Val R

    2008-10-30

    Global amphibian declines have often been attributed to disease, but ignorance of the relative importance and mode of action of potential drivers of infection has made it difficult to develop effective remediation. In a field study, here we show that the widely used herbicide, atrazine, was the best predictor (out of more than 240 plausible candidates) of the abundance of larval trematodes (parasitic flatworms) in the declining northern leopard frog Rana pipiens. The effects of atrazine were consistent across trematode taxa. The combination of atrazine and phosphate--principal agrochemicals in global corn and sorghum production--accounted for 74% of the variation in the abundance of these often debilitating larval trematodes (atrazine alone accounted for 51%). Analysis of field data supported a causal mechanism whereby both agrochemicals increase exposure and susceptibility to larval trematodes by augmenting snail intermediate hosts and suppressing amphibian immunity. A mesocosm experiment demonstrated that, relative to control tanks, atrazine tanks had immunosuppressed tadpoles, had significantly more attached algae and snails, and had tadpoles with elevated trematode loads, further supporting a causal relationship between atrazine and elevated trematode infections in amphibians. These results raise concerns about the role of atrazine and phosphate in amphibian declines, and illustrate the value of quantifying the relative importance of several possible drivers of disease risk while determining the mechanisms by which they facilitate disease emergence.

  19. Longitudinal association between hippocampus atrophy and episodic-memory decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorbach, Tetiana; Pudas, Sara; Lundquist, Anders; Orädd, Greger; Josefsson, Maria; Salami, Alireza; de Luna, Xavier; Nyberg, Lars

    2017-03-01

    There is marked variability in both onset and rate of episodic-memory decline in aging. Structural magnetic resonance imaging studies have revealed that the extent of age-related brain changes varies markedly across individuals. Past studies of whether regional atrophy accounts for episodic-memory decline in aging have yielded inconclusive findings. Here we related 15-year changes in episodic memory to 4-year changes in cortical and subcortical gray matter volume and in white-matter connectivity and lesions. In addition, changes in word fluency, fluid IQ (Block Design), and processing speed were estimated and related to structural brain changes. Significant negative change over time was observed for all cognitive and brain measures. A robust brain-cognition change-change association was observed for episodic-memory decline and atrophy in the hippocampus. This association was significant for older (65-80 years) but not middle-aged (55-60 years) participants and not sensitive to the assumption of ignorable attrition. Thus, these longitudinal findings highlight medial-temporal lobe system integrity as particularly crucial for maintaining episodic-memory functioning in older age. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Diagnosing the decline in pharmaceutical R&D efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scannell, Jack W; Blanckley, Alex; Boldon, Helen; Warrington, Brian

    2012-03-01

    The past 60 years have seen huge advances in many of the scientific, technological and managerial factors that should tend to raise the efficiency of commercial drug research and development (RD). Yet the number of new drugs approved per billion US dollars spent on RD has halved roughly every 9 years since 1950, falling around 80-fold in inflation-adjusted terms. There have been many proposed solutions to the problem of declining RD efficiency. However, their apparent lack of impact so far and the contrast between improving inputs and declining output in terms of the number of new drugs make it sensible to ask whether the underlying problems have been correctly diagnosed. Here, we discuss four factors that we consider to be primary causes, which we call the 'better than the Beatles' problem; the 'cautious regulator' problem; the 'throw money at it' tendency; and the 'basic research-brute force' bias. Our aim is to provoke a more systematic analysis of the causes of the decline in RD efficiency.

  1. Bilingualism and Cognitive Decline: A Story of Pride and Prejudice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woumans, Evy; Versijpt, Jan; Sieben, Anne; Santens, Patrick; Duyck, Wouter

    2017-01-01

    In a recent review, Mukadam, Sommerlad, and Livingston (2017) argue that bilingualism offers no protection against cognitive decline. The authors examined the results of 13 studies (five prospective, eight retrospective) in which monolinguals and bilinguals were compared for cognitive decline and onset of dementia symptoms. Analysis of four of the five prospective studies resulted in the conclusion that there was no difference between monolinguals and bilinguals, whereas seven of the eight retrospective studies actually showed bilingualism to result in a four-to-five year delay of symptom onset. The authors decided to ignore the results from the retrospective studies in favor of those from the prospective studies, reasoning that the former may be confounded by participants' cultural background and education levels. In this commentary, we argue that most of these studies actually controlled for these two variables and still found a positive effect of bilingualism. Furthermore, we argue that the meta-analysis of the prospective studies is not complete, lacking the results of two crucial reports. We conclude that the literature offers substantial evidence for a bilingual effect on the development of cognitive decline and dementia.

  2. Traumatic oesophageal perforation due to haematoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønhøj Larsen, Christian; Brandt, Bodil

    2014-01-01

    . Three explanations postulated to be the cause for late perforation which might be due to esophageal wall ischemia from pressure built up between the hematoma, azygos vein and the lower part of thoracic trachea; or could be an immediate rupture walled-off until the patient became symptomatic......; or the intramural hematoma gradually lysed and causing late perforation. CONCLUSION: Although extremely rare, an oesophageal haematoma and late complications must be considered in patients on anti-coagulant therapy following blunt thoracic trauma and complaining only of chest pain....

  3. Cool temperatures reduce antifungal activity of symbiotic bacteria of threatened amphibians--implications for disease management and patterns of decline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua H Daskin

    Full Text Available Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, is a widespread disease of amphibians responsible for population declines and extinctions. Some bacteria from amphibians' skins produce antimicrobial substances active against Bd. Supplementing populations of these cutaneous antifungal bacteria might help manage chytridiomycosis in wild amphibians. However, the activity of protective bacteria may depend upon environmental conditions. Biocontrol of Bd in nature thus requires knowledge of how environmental conditions affect their anti-Bd activity. For example, Bd-driven amphibian declines have often occurred at temperatures below Bd's optimum range. It is possible these declines occurred due to reduced anti-Bd activity of bacterial symbionts at cool temperatures. Better understanding of the effects of temperature on chytridiomycosis development could also improve risk evaluation for amphibian populations yet to encounter Bd. We characterized, at a range of temperatures approximating natural seasonal variation, the anti-Bd activity of bacterial symbionts from the skins of three species of rainforest tree frogs (Litoria nannotis, Litoria rheocola, and Litoria serrata. All three species declined during chytridiomycosis outbreaks in the late 1980s and early 1990s and have subsequently recovered to differing extents. We collected anti-Bd bacterial symbionts from frogs and cultured the bacteria at constant temperatures from 8 °C to 33 °C. Using a spectrophotometric assay, we monitored Bd growth in cell-free supernatants (CFSs from each temperature treatment. CFSs from 11 of 24 bacteria showed reduced anti-Bd activity in vitro when they were produced at cool temperatures similar to those encountered by the host species during population declines. Reduced anti-Bd activity of metabolites produced at low temperatures may, therefore, partially explain the association between Bd-driven declines and cool temperatures. We show that to

  4. Effectiveness of light paths coupled with personal emergency response systems in preventing functional decline among the elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Lachal

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The elderly population is at high risk of functional decline, which will induce significant costs due to long-term care. Dependency could be delayed by preventing one of its major determinants: falls. Light paths coupled with personal emergency response systems could prevent the functional decline through fall prevention. Methods: This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of light paths coupled with personal emergency response systems on the functional decline in an elderly population living at home. It is a secondary analysis on data from a previous cohort. In all, 190 older adults (aged 65 years or more living at home participated. Participants in the exposed group were equipped with home-based technologies: light paths coupled with personal emergency response systems. The participants’ functional status was assessed using the Functional Autonomy Measurement System scale at baseline (T0 and at the end of the study (T12-month. Baseline characteristics were evaluated by a comprehensive geriatric assessment. Results: After 1 year, 43% of the unexposed group had functional decline versus 16% of the exposed group. Light paths coupled with personal emergency response systems were significantly associated with a decrease in the functional decline (Δ Functional Autonomy Measurement System ⩾ 5 at home (odds ratio = 0.24, 95% confidence interval (0.11–0.54, p = 0.002. Discussion: This study suggests that light paths coupled with personal emergency response systems prevent the functional decline over 12 months. This result may encourage the prescription and use of home-based technologies to postpone dependency and institutionalization, but they need a larger cost-effectiveness study to demonstrate the efficiency of these technologies.

  5. Cool temperatures reduce antifungal activity of symbiotic bacteria of threatened amphibians--implications for disease management and patterns of decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskin, Joshua H; Bell, Sara C; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Alford, Ross A

    2014-01-01

    Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a widespread disease of amphibians responsible for population declines and extinctions. Some bacteria from amphibians' skins produce antimicrobial substances active against Bd. Supplementing populations of these cutaneous antifungal bacteria might help manage chytridiomycosis in wild amphibians. However, the activity of protective bacteria may depend upon environmental conditions. Biocontrol of Bd in nature thus requires knowledge of how environmental conditions affect their anti-Bd activity. For example, Bd-driven amphibian declines have often occurred at temperatures below Bd's optimum range. It is possible these declines occurred due to reduced anti-Bd activity of bacterial symbionts at cool temperatures. Better understanding of the effects of temperature on chytridiomycosis development could also improve risk evaluation for amphibian populations yet to encounter Bd. We characterized, at a range of temperatures approximating natural seasonal variation, the anti-Bd activity of bacterial symbionts from the skins of three species of rainforest tree frogs (Litoria nannotis, Litoria rheocola, and Litoria serrata). All three species declined during chytridiomycosis outbreaks in the late 1980s and early 1990s and have subsequently recovered to differing extents. We collected anti-Bd bacterial symbionts from frogs and cultured the bacteria at constant temperatures from 8 °C to 33 °C. Using a spectrophotometric assay, we monitored Bd growth in cell-free supernatants (CFSs) from each temperature treatment. CFSs from 11 of 24 bacteria showed reduced anti-Bd activity in vitro when they were produced at cool temperatures similar to those encountered by the host species during population declines. Reduced anti-Bd activity of metabolites produced at low temperatures may, therefore, partially explain the association between Bd-driven declines and cool temperatures. We show that to avoid

  6. Decline in Memory, Visuospatial Ability, and Crystalized Cognitive Abilities in Older Adults: Normative Aging or Terminal Decline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bendayan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to explore the pattern of change in multiple measures of cognitive abilities in a sample of oldest-old adults, comparing two different time metrics (chronological age and time to death and therefore examining both underlying conceptual assumptions (age-related change and terminal decline. Moreover, the association with individual characteristics as sex, education, and dementia diagnosis was also examined. Measures of cognitive status (Mini-Mental State Examination and the Swedish Clock Test and tests of crystallized (knowledge and synonyms, memory (verbal memory, nonverbal long-term memory, recognition and correspondence, and short-term memory, and visuospatial ability were included. The sample consisted of 671 older Swedish adult participants of the OCTO Twin Study. Linear mixed models with random coefficients were used to analyse change patterns and BIC indexes were used to compare models. Results showed that the time to death model was the best option in analyses of change in all the cognitive measures considered (except for the Information Test. A significant cognitive decline over time was found for all variables. Individuals diagnosed with dementia had lower scores at the study entrance and a faster decline. More educated individuals performed better in all the measures of cognition at study entry than those with poorer education, but no differences were found in the rate of change. Differences were found in age, sex, or time to death at baseline across the different measures. These results support the terminal decline hypothesis when compared to models assuming that cognitive changes are driven by normative aging processes.

  7. Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Opuni Marjorie

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model. We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log

  8. [Dehydration due to "mouth broken"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meijler, D P M; van Mossevelde, P W J; van Beek, R H T

    2012-09-01

    Two children were admitted to a medical centre due to dehydration after an oral injury and the extraction of a tooth. One child complained of "mouth broken". Dehydration is the most common water-electrolyte imbalance in children. Babies and young children are prone to dehydration due to their relatively large body surface area, the high percentage extracellular fluid, and the limited ability of the kidneys to conserve water. After the removal ofa tooth, after an oral trauma or in case of oral discomfort, a child is at greater risk of dehydration by reduced fluid and food intake due to oral pain and/or discomfort and anxiety to drink. In those cases, extra attention needs to be devoted to the intake of fluids.

  9. Basic Substantive Law for Paralegals: Contracts, Torts, and Due Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcin, Raymond B.

    Part of the paralegal, or legal assistant, training materials prepared by the National Paralegal Institution under a Federal grant, the text comprises an overview of the basic legal concepts usually found in introductory law courses concerning contracts, torts, and the due process area of constitutional law. Part 1, Contracts, covers: definition,…

  10. Decreased serum level of NGF in alcohol-dependent patients with declined executive function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bae H

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Hwallip Bae,1 Youngsun Ra,1 Changwoo Han,2 Dai-Jin Kim3 1Department of Psychiatry, Myongji Hospital, Goyang, 2Department of Psychiatry, Keyo Hospital, Uiwang, 3Department of Psychiatry, Seoul St Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, South Korea Abstract: The role of neurotrophic factors has been highlighted as a cause of decline in the cognitive function of alcohol-dependent patients. It is known that nerve-growth factor (NGF, one of the neurotrophins, is related to the growth and differentiation of nerve cells, as well as to a decline in cognitive function. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between decreased NGF levels and cognitive decline in alcohol-dependent patients. The serum concentration of NGF was measured in 38 patients with chronic alcohol dependence, and several neuropsychological tests were also performed for cognitive function assessment. The results indicated a significant correlation between serum NGF level and the trail-making test part B, which evaluates executive function, but did not show a significant correlation with other cognitive function tests. An increased serum level of NGF was associated with a decreased completion time in the trail-making test B, and this finding indicates that a high serum level of NGF is related to greater executive function. This finding may imply a protective role of NGF in preventing neuron damage among patients with alcohol dependence. Larger controlled studies will be necessary in the future to investigate this issue further. Keywords: nerve-growth factor, alcohol dependence, executive function, trail-making test

  11. Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yongshuo H; Zhao, Hongfang; Piao, Shilong; Peaucelle, Marc; Peng, Shushi; Zhou, Guiyun; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Menzel, Annette; Peñuelas, Josep; Song, Yang; Vitasse, Yann; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Janssens, Ivan A

    2015-10-01

    Earlier spring leaf unfolding is a frequently observed response of plants to climate warming. Many deciduous tree species require chilling for dormancy release, and warming-related reductions in chilling may counteract the advance of leaf unfolding in response to warming. Empirical evidence for this, however, is limited to saplings or twigs in climate-controlled chambers. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, here we show that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance of leaf unfolding per °C warming) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days °C(-1) during 1980-1994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days °C(-1) during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also have a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining ST, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce ST and therefore result in a slowdown in the advance of tree spring phenology.

  12. Teacher Dismissal and Due Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leichner, Edward C.; Blackstone, Sidney

    1977-01-01

    This article addresses due process requirements in the nonrenewal and dismissal of tenured and nontenured teachers. The Georgia Fair Dismissal Law is used as a basis for discussing the grounds for teacher dismissal. Dismissal grounds discussed are 1) incompetency; 2) insubordination; 3) willful neglect of duties; 4) immorality; 5) inciting,…

  13. Due Process Hearing Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, David F.

    2009-01-01

    William is 9 years of age, residing with his parent within the boundaries of an unnamed district ("the District"). As a student with autism he is eligible for special education programming and services. There was one issue presented for this due process hearing: What was the appropriate program and placement for him for the 2008-2009 school year?…

  14. Association of High-Dose Ibuprofen Use, Lung Function Decline, and Long-Term Survival in Children with Cystic Fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konstan, Michael W; VanDevanter, Donald R; Sawicki, Gregory S; Pasta, David J; Foreman, Aimee J; Neiman, Evgueni A; Morgan, Wayne J

    2018-04-01

    Cystic fibrosis deaths result primarily from lung function loss, so chronic respiratory therapies, intended to preserve lung function, are cornerstones of cystic fibrosis care. Although treatment-associated reduction in rate of lung function loss should ultimately improve cystic fibrosis survival, no such relationship has been described for any chronic cystic fibrosis therapy. In part, this is because the ages of most rapid lung function decline-early adolescence-precede the median age of cystic fibrosis deaths by more than a decade. To study associations of high-dose ibuprofen treatment with the rate of forced expiratory volume in 1 second decline and mortality among children followed in the Epidemiologic Study of Cystic Fibrosis and subsequently in the U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry. We performed a matched cohort study using data from Epidemiologic Study of Cystic Fibrosis. Exposure was defined as high-dose ibuprofen use reported at ≥80% of encounters over 2 years. Unexposed children were matched to exposed children 5:1 using propensity scores on the basis of demographic, clinical, and treatment covariates. The rate of decline of percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second during the 2-year follow-up period was estimated by mixed-effects modeling with random slopes and intercepts. Survival over 16 follow-up years in the U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry was compared between treatment groups by using proportional hazards modeling controlling for matching and covariates. We included 775 high-dose ibuprofen users and 3,665 nonusers who were well matched on demographic, clinical, and treatment variables. High-dose ibuprofen users declined on average 1.10 percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second/yr (95% confidence interval; 0.51, 1.69) during the 2-year treatment period, whereas nonusers declined at a rate of 1.76% percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second/yr (95% confidence interval; 1.48, 2

  15. Barriers to uptake among high-risk individuals declining participation in lung cancer screening: a mixed methods analysis of the UK Lung Cancer Screening (UKLS) trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Noor; Lifford, Kate J; Carter, Ben; McRonald, Fiona; Yadegarfar, Ghasem; Baldwin, David R; Weller, David; Hansell, David M; Duffy, Stephen W; Field, John K; Brain, Kate

    2015-07-14

    The current study aimed to identify the barriers to participation among high-risk individuals in the UK Lung Cancer Screening (UKLS) pilot trial. The UKLS pilot trial is a randomised controlled trial of low-dose CT (LDCT) screening that has recruited high-risk people using a population approach in the Cambridge and Liverpool areas. High-risk individuals aged 50-75 years were invited to participate in UKLS. Individuals were excluded if a LDCT scan was performed within the last year, if they were unable to provide consent, or if LDCT screening was unable to be carried out due to coexisting comorbidities. Statistical associations between individual characteristics and UKLS uptake were examined using multivariable regression modelling. In those who completed a non-participation questionnaire (NPQ), thematic analysis of free-text data was undertaken to identify reasons for not taking part, with subsequent exploratory linkage of key themes to risk factors for non-uptake. Comparative data were available from 4061 high-risk individuals who consented to participate in the trial and 2756 who declined participation. Of those declining participation, 748 (27.1%) completed a NPQ. Factors associated with non-uptake included: female gender (OR=0.64, pemotional barriers. Smokers were more likely to report emotional barriers to participation. A profile of risk factors for non-participation in lung screening has emerged, with underlying reasons largely relating to practical and emotional barriers. Strategies for engaging high-risk, hard-to-reach groups are critical for the equitable uptake of a potential future lung cancer screening programme. The UKLS trial was registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Register under the reference 78513845. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. Detection of pollution-induced forest decline in the Kola Peninsula using remote sensing and mathematical modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rigina, Olga

    1998-01-01

    plots were used for labelling the classes. Multispectral changes observed between 1978 and 1992 were used to evaluate the relevance of the Gaussian plume model as a component for assessment of forest decline. The IIASA model for accumulated impact in forests under long-term exposure to airborne sulphur was applied for the period of 1960-1996. The input data used were plant sensitivity parameters and SO 2 ambient concentrations predicted at a previous stage. The model was validated by ground truth data and the results of the 1996 classification. Effects of topography and episodes of high concentrations were additionally investigated by a 3D numerical modelling Results: * Comparative analysis by the RAINS model showed a significant, but local impact of the Kola sources on adjacent parts of the Nordic countries. * Remote sensing has revealed vegetation decline in large areas around the 'Severonikel'. The damaged area expands more north than south of the smelter due to a dominance of southern winds during the vegetation period, and a sheltering role of topography as revealed by 3D modelling. * Multispectral changes detected between 1978 and 1992 were found to have a statistically significant correspondence to the modelled long-term SO 2 concentration levels in ambient air. This validates the Gaussian plume model. * The impact model was validated by in situ field data and by the classified 1996 scene. * Both Remote sensing analysis and the impact model show a rapid expansion of the degraded area during 1978-1992 and its stabilisation since that time which is consistent with the reduced emissions. * An exceptional expansion of forest damage south of the smelter in 1992 is likely to be linked to an episode of high concentration prior to the image acquisition or extreme climatic conditions

  17. Detection of pollution-induced forest decline in the Kola Peninsula using remote sensing and mathematical modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rigina, Olga

    1998-07-01

    degradation levels on permanent field plots were used for labelling the classes. Multispectral changes observed between 1978 and 1992 were used to evaluate the relevance of the Gaussian plume model as a component for assessment of forest decline. The IIASA model for accumulated impact in forests under long-term exposure to airborne sulphur was applied for the period of 1960-1996. The input data used were plant sensitivity parameters and SO{sub 2} ambient concentrations predicted at a previous stage. The model was validated by ground truth data and the results of the 1996 classification. Effects of topography and episodes of high concentrations were additionally investigated by a 3D numerical modelling Results: * Comparative analysis by the RAINS model showed a significant, but local impact of the Kola sources on adjacent parts of the Nordic countries. * Remote sensing has revealed vegetation decline in large areas around the 'Severonikel'. The damaged area expands more north than south of the smelter due to a dominance of southern winds during the vegetation period, and a sheltering role of topography as revealed by 3D modelling. * Multispectral changes detected between 1978 and 1992 were found to have a statistically significant correspondence to the modelled long-term SO{sub 2} concentration levels in ambient air. This validates the Gaussian plume model. * The impact model was validated by in situ field data and by the classified 1996 scene. * Both Remote sensing analysis and the impact model show a rapid expansion of the degraded area during 1978-1992 and its stabilisation since that time which is consistent with the reduced emissions. * An exceptional expansion of forest damage south of the smelter in 1992 is likely to be linked to an episode of high concentration prior to the image acquisition or extreme climatic conditions.

  18. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  19. Corpus callosum atrophy as a marker of clinically meaningful cognitive decline in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Impact on employment status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, Athanasios; Messinis, Lambros; Zampakis, Petros; Papathanasopoulos, Panagiotis

    2017-09-01

    Cognitive impairment in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is more frequent and pronounced in secondary progressive MS (SPMS). Cognitive decline is an important predictor of employment status in patients with MS. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) markers have been used to associate tissue damage with cognitive dysfunction. The aim of the study was to designate the MRI marker that predicts cognitive decline in SPMS and explore its effect on employment status. 30 SPMS patients and 30 healthy participants underwent neuropsychological assessment using the Trail Making Test (TMT) parts A and B, semantic and phonological verbal fluency task and a computerized cognitive screening battery (Central Nervous System Vital Signs). Employment status was obtained as a quality of life measure. Brain MRI was performed in all participants. We measured total lesion volume, third ventricle width, thalamic and corpus callosum atrophy. The frequency of cognitive decline for our SPMS patients was 80%. SPMS patients differed significantly from controls in all neuropsychological measures. Corpus callosum area was correlated with cognitive flexibility, processing speed, composite memory, executive functions, psychomotor speed, reaction time and phonological verbal fluency task. Processing speed and composite memory were the most sensitive markers for predicting employment status. Corpus callosum area was the most sensitive MRI marker for memory and processing speed. Corpus callosum atrophy predicts a clinically meaningful cognitive decline, affecting employment status in our SPMS patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Long-term impact of childhood disadvantage on late-life functional decline among older Japanese: Results from the JAGES prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Hiroshi; Fujiwara, Takeo; Tani, Yukako; Amemiya, Airi; Matsuyama, Yusuke; Nagamine, Yuiko; Kondo, Katsunori

    2017-09-11

    Increasing evidence suggests an impact of childhood disadvantage on late-life functional impairment in Western countries. However, the processes by which childhood disadvantage affects functional capacity are influenced by several factors unique to particular societies. We examined the impact of childhood disadvantage on functional decline among older Japanese, using a large-scale prospective cohort study. Data came from surveys conducted in 2010 and 2013 as part of the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES), a nationwide cohort study targeting community-dwelling people aged 65 years and over. Childhood disadvantage included subjective childhood socioeconomic status (SES), body height and educational level. The sample was stratified by age at baseline (65-69 y, 70-74 y, 75-79 y, and ≥ 80 y). A total of 11,601 respondents were analyzed. In the 65-69 y group, lower childhood SES was associated with functional decline, but this association was mediated by adult SES. In contrast, childhood SES was independently associated with functional decline in the older cohort. In the 75-79 y group, lower childhood SES was associated with functional decline. However, in the ≥ 80 y group, people with higher childhood SES were more likely to experience functional decline. Shorter height was associated with functional decline in the 70-74 y group. Higher education was related to functional decline in all age groups except the ≥ 80 y group. These findings suggest that childhood disadvantage affects functional decline, but its effect varies by age cohort. The mechanisms underlying the association between childhood disadvantage and functional decline may be influenced by social and historical context. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.