A GIS-based generic real-time risk assessment framework and decision tools for chemical spills in the river basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Lung, Wu-seng; Guo, Liang; Li, Mei

2012-08-15

This paper presents a generic framework and decision tools of real-time risk assessment on Emergency Environmental Decision Support System for response to chemical spills in river basin. The generic "4-step-3-model" framework is able to delineate the warning area and the impact on vulnerable receptors considering four types of hazards referring to functional area, societal impact, and human health and ecology system. Decision tools including the stand-alone system and software components were implemented on GIS platform. A detailed case study on the Songhua River nitrobenzene spill illustrated the goodness of the framework and tool Spill first responders and decision makers of catchment management will benefit from the rich, visual and dynamic hazard information output from the software. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal Solutions of Multiproduct Batch Chemical Process Using Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm with Expert Decision System

Science.gov (United States)

Mokeddem, Diab; Khellaf, Abdelhafid

2009-01-01

Optimal design problem are widely known by their multiple performance measures that are often competing with each other. In this paper, an optimal multiproduct batch chemical plant design is presented. The design is firstly formulated as a multiobjective optimization problem, to be solved using the well suited non dominating sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). The NSGA-II have capability to achieve fine tuning of variables in determining a set of non dominating solutions distributed along the Pareto front in a single run of the algorithm. The NSGA-II ability to identify a set of optimal solutions provides the decision-maker DM with a complete picture of the optimal solution space to gain better and appropriate choices. Then an outranking with PROMETHEE II helps the decision-maker to finalize the selection of a best compromise. The effectiveness of NSGA-II method with multiojective optimization problem is illustrated through two carefully referenced examples. PMID:19543537

Lebenszykluskostenanalyse zur Entscheidungsunterstützung in der chemischen Prozessentwicklung = Life cycle cost analysis for decision support in chemical process development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sell, I.; Ott-Reinhardt, D.; Kralisch, D.

2013-01-01

The need for environmentally benign processes as a crucial basis of future competitiveness is in the focus of today's chemical industry. Decision support in the development of such processes can be provided by life cycle assessment. New technologies, however, can be established only if they lead to

Developing Health-Based Pre-Planning Clearance Goals for Airport Remediation Following a Chemical Terrorist Attack: Decision Criteria for Multipathway Exposure Routes

OpenAIRE

Watson, Annetta; Dolislager, Fredrick; Hall, Linda; Raber, Ellen; Hauschild, Veronique D.; Love, Adam H.

2011-01-01

In the event of a chemical terrorist attack on a transportation hub, post-event remediation and restoration activities necessary to attain unrestricted facility re-use and re-entry could require hours to multiple days. While timeframes are dependent on numerous variables, a primary controlling factor is the level of pre-planning and decision-making completed prior to chemical release. What follows is the second of a two-part analysis identifying key considerations, critical information and de...

Superfund record of decision (EPA Region 4): Marzone Inc. /Chevron Chemical Company Superfund Site, Operable Unit 1, Tifton, GA, September 1994

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-09-30

This decision document (Record of Decision) presents the selected remedial action for the Marzone, Inc./Chevron Chemical Company Site in Tift County, Georgia. EPA has organized the work at this Site into two phases or operable units (OUs). Operable Unit No. 1 involves contamination on the 1.68-acre former Marzone pesticide blending area, part of the Slack Property, and railroad drainage ditch past the southwest corner of the horse pasture, and contaminated groundwater related to the Site. This first operable unit is broken down into two separate remedies; one for groundwater and the other for soil.

Principles for decisions involving environmental and health risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bengtsson, B.

1989-01-01

Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of genotoxic chemicals in the environment. The topics include synoptic vs. incrementalistic approaches to decision making, health hazards from radiation and genotoxic chemicals, value judgments in decision making, definitions of low risks, risk comparisons, and principles for decision making when risks are involved. (author) 47 refs

Chemical plant innovative safety investments decision-support methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Reniers, G L L; Audenaert, A

2009-01-01

This article examines the extent to which investing in safety during the creation of a new chemical installation proves profitable. The authors propose a management supporting cost-benefit model that identifies and evaluates investments in safety within a chemical company. This innovative model differentiates between serious accidents and less serious accidents, thus providing an authentic image of prevention-related costs and benefits. In classic cost-benefit analyses, which do not make such differentiations, only a rudimentary image of potential profitability resulting from investments in safety is obtained. The resulting management conclusions that can be drawn from such classical analyses are of a very limited nature. The proposed model, however, is applied to a real case study and the proposed investments in safety at an appointed chemical installation are weighed against the estimated hypothetical benefits resulting from the preventive measures to be installed at the installation. In the case-study carried out in question, it would appear that the proposed prevention investments are justified. Such an economic exercise may be very important to chemical corporations trying to (further) improve their safety investments.

Health risk from radioactive and chemical environmental contamination: common basis for assessment and safety decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demin, V.

2004-01-01

To meet the growing practical need in risk analysis in Russia health risk assessment tools and regulations have been developed in the frame of few federal research programs. RRC Kurchatov Institute is involved in R and D on risk analysis activity in these programs. One of the objectives of this development is to produce a common, unified basis of health risk analysis for different sources of risk. Current specific and different approaches in risk assessment and establishing safety standards developed for chemicals and ionising radiation are analysed. Some recommendations are given to produce the common approach. A specific risk index R has been proposed for safety decision-making (establishing safety standards and other levels of protective actions, comparison of various sources of risk, etc.). The index R is defined as the partial mathematical expectation of lost years of healthy life (LLE) due to exposure during a year to a risk source considered. The more concrete determinations of this index for different risk sources derived from the common definition of R are given. Generic safety standards (GSS) for the public and occupational workers have been suggested in terms of this index. Secondary specific safety standards have been derived from GSS for ionizing radiation and a number of other risk sources including environmental chemical pollutants. Other general and derived levels for decision-making have also been proposed including the e-minimum level. Their possible dependence on the national or regional health-demographic data is shortly considered. Recommendations are given on methods and criteria for comparison of various sources of risk. Some examples of risk comparison are demonstrated in the frame of different comparison tasks. The paper has been prepared on the basis of the research work supported by International Science and Technology Centre, Moscow (project no. 2558). (author)

Chemical Safety Assessment Using Read-Across: Assessing the Use of Novel Testing Methods to Strengthen the Evidence Base for Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Amcoff, Patric; Benigni, Romualdo; Blackburn, Karen; Carney, Edward; Cronin, Mark; Deluyker, Hubert; Gautier, Francoise; Judson, Richard S.; Kass, Georges E.N.; Keller, Detlef; Knight, Derek; Lilienblum, Werner; Mahony, Catherine; Rusyn, Ivan; Schultz, Terry; Schwarz, Michael; Schüürmann, Gerrit; White, Andrew; Burton, Julien; Lostia, Alfonso M.; Munn, Sharon; Worth, Andrew

2015-01-01

Background Safety assessment for repeated dose toxicity is one of the largest challenges in the process to replace animal testing. This is also one of the proof of concept ambitions of SEURAT-1, the largest ever European Union research initiative on alternative testing, co-funded by the European Commission and Cosmetics Europe. This review is based on the discussion and outcome of a workshop organized on initiative of the SEURAT-1 consortium joined by a group of international experts with complementary knowledge to further develop traditional read-across and include new approach data. Objectives The aim of the suggested strategy for chemical read-across is to show how a traditional read-across based on structural similarities between source and target substance can be strengthened with additional evidence from new approach data—for example, information from in vitro molecular screening, “-omics” assays and computational models—to reach regulatory acceptance. Methods We identified four read-across scenarios that cover typical human health assessment situations. For each such decision context, we suggested several chemical groups as examples to prove when read-across between group members is possible, considering both chemical and biological similarities. Conclusions We agreed to carry out the complete read-across exercise for at least one chemical category per read-across scenario in the context of SEURAT-1, and the results of this exercise will be completed and presented by the end of the research initiative in December 2015. Citation Berggren E, Amcoff P, Benigni R, Blackburn K, Carney E, Cronin M, Deluyker H, Gautier F, Judson RS, Kass GE, Keller D, Knight D, Lilienblum W, Mahony C, Rusyn I, Schultz T, Schwarz M, Schüürmann G, White A, Burton J, Lostia AM, Munn S, Worth A. 2015. Chemical safety assessment using read-across: assessing the use of novel testing methods to strengthen the evidence base for decision making. Environ Health Perspect 123:1232�

A theory of chemicals regulation and testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gabbert, S.G.M.; Weikard, H.P.

2010-01-01

Risk management of chemicals requires information about their adverse effects such as toxicity and persistence, for example. Testing of chemicals allows for improving the information base for regulatory decision-making on chemicals' production and use. Testing a large number of chemicals with

Chemical alternatives assessment: the case of flame retardants.

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Gregory J

2014-12-01

Decisions on chemical substitution are made rapidly and by many stakeholders; these decisions may have a direct impact on consumer exposures, and, when a hazard exists, to consumer risks. Flame retardants (FRs) represent particular challenges, including very high production volumes, designed-in persistence, and often direct consumer exposure. Newer FR products, as with other industrial chemicals, typically lack data on hazard and exposure, and in many cases even basic information on structure and use in products is unknown. Chemical alternatives assessment (CAA) provides a hazard-focused approach to distinguishing between possible substitutions; variations on this process are used by several government and numerous corporate entities. By grouping chemicals according to functional use, some information on exposure potential can be inferred, allowing for decisions based on those hazard properties that are most distinguishing. This approach can help prevent the "regrettable substitution" of one chemical with another of equal, or even higher, risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological Assembly of Chemical Mixtures

Science.gov (United States)

Human-environment interactions have a significant role in the formation of chemical mixtures in the environment and by extension in human tissues and fluids. These interactions, which include decisions to purchase and use products containing chemicals as well as behaviors and act...

Using game theory to improve safety within chemical industrial parks

CERN Document Server

Reniers, Genserik

2013-01-01

Though the game-theoretic approach has been vastly studied and utilized in relation to economics of industrial organizations, it has hardly been used to tackle safety management in multi-plant chemical industrial settings. Using Game Theory for Improving Safety within Chemical Industrial Parks presents an in-depth discussion of game-theoretic modelling which may be applied to improve cross-company prevention and -safety management in a chemical industrial park.   By systematically analyzing game-theoretic models and approaches in relation to managing safety in chemical industrial parks, Using Game Theory for Improving Safety within Chemical Industrial Parks explores the ways game theory can predict the outcome of complex strategic investment decision making processes involving several adjacent chemical plants. A number of game-theoretic decision models are discussed to provide strategic tools for decision-making situations.   Offering clear and straightforward explanations of methodologies, Using Game Theor...

Construction of a technique plan repository and evaluation system based on AHP group decision-making for emergency treatment and disposal in chemical pollution accidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Shenggang; Cao, Jingcan; Feng, Li; Liang, Wenyan; Zhang, Liqiu

2014-07-15

The environmental pollution resulting from chemical accidents has caused increasingly serious concerns. Therefore, it is very important to be able to determine in advance the appropriate emergency treatment and disposal technology for different types of chemical accidents. However, the formulation of an emergency plan for chemical pollution accidents is considerably difficult due to the substantial uncertainty and complexity of such accidents. This paper explains how the event tree method was used to create 54 different scenarios for chemical pollution accidents, based on the polluted medium, dangerous characteristics and properties of chemicals involved. For each type of chemical accident, feasible emergency treatment and disposal technology schemes were established, considering the areas of pollution source control, pollutant non-proliferation, contaminant elimination and waste disposal. Meanwhile, in order to obtain the optimum emergency disposal technology schemes as soon as the chemical pollution accident occurs from the plan repository, the technique evaluation index system was developed based on group decision-improved analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and has been tested by using a sudden aniline pollution accident that occurred in a river in December 2012. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Chemical Product Simulator - ProCAPD

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kalakul, Sawitree; Eden, Mario Richard; Gani, Rafiqul

2017-01-01

In this paper, a chemical product design simulator called ProCAPD is presented. ProCAPD works in the same way as a chemical process simulator, that is, it helps to verify product design decisions and generates information that can be used to make design decisions. Like the contents of the process...... simulator, the product simulator needs a database of chemicals and properties, a library of models, numerical routines to solve mathematical problems as well as various calculation options. Also, like the process simulator, the product simulator comes with a user-interface to describe the problems.......); calculation tools (product attributes, blend compositions, environmental impact, etc.); design templates (single molecules, blends, formulations, emulsions, devices); and, design-simulation-analysis functions. All these capabilities are based on the prototype tool developed by Kalakul et al. (2017...

Big Data Analytics in Chemical Engineering.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiang, Leo; Lu, Bo; Castillo, Ivan

2017-06-07

Big data analytics is the journey to turn data into insights for more informed business and operational decisions. As the chemical engineering community is collecting more data (volume) from different sources (variety), this journey becomes more challenging in terms of using the right data and the right tools (analytics) to make the right decisions in real time (velocity). This article highlights recent big data advancements in five industries, including chemicals, energy, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and food, and then discusses technical, platform, and culture challenges. To reach the next milestone in multiplying successes to the enterprise level, government, academia, and industry need to collaboratively focus on workforce development and innovation.

Risk from environmental chemicals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Somers, E [Environmental Health Directorate, Health Protection Branch, Health and Welfare Canada, Ontario

1982-01-01

The elements of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and risk management, are described with respect to the control of environmental chemicals. The methodology of risk estimation is outlined and examples given of its application to regulatory decision-making for a number of chemicals in Canada. Finally, the extent and limitations of the process of risk evaluation are considered together with the need to recognize the importance of the public's perception of the level of risk.

Metal and physico-chemical variations at a hydroelectric reservoir analyzed by Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks: environmental management and policy/decision-making tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Cavalcante, Y L; Hauser-Davis, R A; Saraiva, A C F; Brandão, I L S; Oliveira, T F; Silveira, A M

2013-01-01

This paper compared and evaluated seasonal variations in physico-chemical parameters and metals at a hydroelectric power station reservoir by applying Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) statistical techniques. A Factor Analysis was used to reduce the number of variables: the first factor was composed of elements Ca, K, Mg and Na, and the second by Chemical Oxygen Demand. The ANN showed 100% correct classifications in training and validation samples. Physico-chemical analyses showed that water pH values were not statistically different between the dry and rainy seasons, while temperature, conductivity, alkalinity, ammonia and DO were higher in the dry period. TSS, hardness and COD, on the other hand, were higher during the rainy season. The statistical analyses showed that Ca, K, Mg and Na are directly connected to the Chemical Oxygen Demand, which indicates a possibility of their input into the reservoir system by domestic sewage and agricultural run-offs. These statistical applications, thus, are also relevant in cases of environmental management and policy decision-making processes, to identify which factors should be further studied and/or modified to recover degraded or contaminated water bodies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical Safety Assessment Using Read-Across: Assessing the Use of Novel Testing Methods to Strengthen the Evidence Base for Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Berggren, Elisabet; Amcoff, Patric; Benigni, Romualdo; Blackburn, Karen; Carney, Edward; Cronin, Mark; Deluyker, Hubert; Gautier, Francoise; Judson, Richard S; Kass, Georges E N; Keller, Detlef; Knight, Derek; Lilienblum, Werner; Mahony, Catherine; Rusyn, Ivan; Schultz, Terry; Schwarz, Michael; Schüürmann, Gerrit; White, Andrew; Burton, Julien; Lostia, Alfonso M; Munn, Sharon; Worth, Andrew

2015-12-01

Safety assessment for repeated dose toxicity is one of the largest challenges in the process to replace animal testing. This is also one of the proof of concept ambitions of SEURAT-1, the largest ever European Union research initiative on alternative testing, co-funded by the European Commission and Cosmetics Europe. This review is based on the discussion and outcome of a workshop organized on initiative of the SEURAT-1 consortium joined by a group of international experts with complementary knowledge to further develop traditional read-across and include new approach data. The aim of the suggested strategy for chemical read-across is to show how a traditional read-across based on structural similarities between source and target substance can be strengthened with additional evidence from new approach data--for example, information from in vitro molecular screening, "-omics" assays and computational models--to reach regulatory acceptance. We identified four read-across scenarios that cover typical human health assessment situations. For each such decision context, we suggested several chemical groups as examples to prove when read-across between group members is possible, considering both chemical and biological similarities. We agreed to carry out the complete read-across exercise for at least one chemical category per read-across scenario in the context of SEURAT-1, and the results of this exercise will be completed and presented by the end of the research initiative in December 2015.

Construction technique for a chemical plant (III)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-08-01

This book mentions design of instrumentation and construction for a chemical plant, which deals with the change of instrumentation, construction, choice of material test, construction of thermal insulation work for a chemical plant, about classification and main materials, the problems on construction, painting plan and construction for a chemical plant such as paint and painting, safety and hygiene, cleaning of a chemical plant on the time for washing and decision of the way of washing, start up test for a chemical plant such as introduction of the check, construction and repair.

Decision making technical support study for the US Army's Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feldman, D.L.; Dobson, J.E.

1990-08-01

This report examines the adequacy of current command and control systems designed to make timely decisions that would enable sufficient warning and protective response to an accident at the Edgewood area of Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG), Maryland, and at Pine Bluff Arsenal (PBA), Arkansas. Institutional procedures designed to facilitate rapid accident assessment, characterization, warning, notification, and response after the onset of an emergency and computer-assisted decision-making aids designed to provide salient information to on- and-off-post emergency responders are examined. The character of emergency decision making at APG and PBA, as well as potential needs for improvements to decision-making practices, procedures, and automated decision-support systems (ADSSs), are described and recommendations are offered to guide equipment acquisition and improve on- and off-post command and control relationships. We recommend that (1) a continued effort be made to integrate on- and off-post command control, and decision-making procedures to permit rapid decision making; (2) the pathways for alert and notification among on- and off-post officials be improved and that responsibilities and chain of command among off-post agencies be clarified; (3) greater attention be given to organizational and social context factors that affect the adequacy of response and the likelihood that decision-making systems will work as intended; and (4) faster improvements be made to on-post ADSSs being developed at APG and PBA, which hold considerable promise for depicting vast amounts of information. Phased development and procurement of computer-assisted decision-making tools should be undertaken to balance immediate needs against available resources and to ensure flexibility, equity among sites, and compatibility among on- and off-post systems. 112 refs., 6 tabs.

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina M; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F; Corbett, Charles J; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M; Seager, Thomas P; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A

2017-06-13

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings. We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. We advance four recommendations: a ) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b ) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c ) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d ) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483.

Improvement of radiological consequence estimation methodologies for NPP accidents in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems through consideration of contaminant physico-chemical forms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andersson, K.G.; Roos, P. [Technical University of Denmark - DTU (Denmark); Lind, O.C.; Salbu, B. [Norwegian University of Life Sciences/CERAD - NMBU (Norway); Bujan, A.; Duranova, T. [VUJE, Inc. (Slovakia); Ikonomopoulos, A.; Andronopoulos, S. [National Centre for Scientific Research ' Demokritos' (Greece)

2014-07-01

The European standard computerized decision support systems RODOS and ARGOS, which are integrated in the operational nuclear emergency preparedness in practically all European countries, as well as in a range of non-European countries, are highly valuable tools for radiological consequence estimation, e.g., in connection with planning and exercising as well as in justification and optimization of intervention strategies. Differences between the Chernobyl and Fukushima accident atmospheric release source terms have demonstrated that differences in release conditions and processes may lead to very different degrees of volatilization of some radionuclides. Also the physico-chemical properties of radionuclides released can depend strongly on the release process. An example from the Chernobyl accident of the significance of this is that strontium particles released in the fire were oxidized and thus generally physico-chemically different from those released during the preceding explosion. This is reflected in the very different environmental mobility of the two groups of particles. The initial elemental matrix characteristics of the contaminants, as well as environmental parameters like pH, determine for instance the particle dissolution time functions, and thus the environmental mobility and potential for uptake in living organisms. As ICRP recommends optimization of intervention according to residual dose, it is crucial to estimate long term dose contributions adequately. In the EURATOM FP7 project PREPARE, an effort is made to integrate physico-chemical forms of contaminants in scenario-specific source term determination, thereby enabling consideration of influences on atmospheric dispersion/deposition, post-deposition migration, and effectiveness of countermeasure implementation. The first step in this context was to investigate, based on available experience, the important physico-chemical properties of radio-contaminants that might potentially be released to the

Decontamination and management of human remains following incidents of hazardous chemical release.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauschild, Veronique D; Watson, Annetta; Bock, Robert

2012-01-01

To provide specific guidance and resources for systematic and orderly decontamination of human remains resulting from a chemical terrorist attack or accidental chemical release. A detailed review and health-based decision criteria protocol is summarized. Protocol basis and logic are derived from analyses of compound-specific toxicological data and chemical/physical characteristics. Guidance is suitable for civilian or military settings where human remains potentially contaminated with hazardous chemicals may be present, such as sites of transportation accidents, terrorist operations, or medical examiner processing points. Guidance is developed from data-characterizing controlled experiments with laboratory animals, fabrics, and materiel. Logic and specific procedures for decontamination and management of remains, protection of mortuary affairs personnel, and decision criteria to determine when remains are sufficiently decontaminated are presented. Established procedures as well as existing materiel and available equipment for decontamination and verification provide reasonable means to mitigate chemical hazards from chemically exposed remains. Unique scenarios such as those involving supralethal concentrations of certain liquid chemical warfare agents may prove difficult to decontaminate but can be resolved in a timely manner by application of the characterized systematic approaches. Decision criteria and protocols to "clear" decontaminated remains for transport and processing are also provided. Once appropriate decontamination and verification have been accomplished, normal procedures for management of remains and release can be followed.

Equilibrium approach towards water resource management and pollution control in coal chemical industrial park.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jiuping; Hou, Shuhua; Xie, Heping; Lv, Chengwei; Yao, Liming

2018-08-01

In this study, an integrated water and waste load allocation model is proposed to assist decision makers in better understanding the trade-offs between economic growth, resource utilization, and environmental protection of coal chemical industries which characteristically have high water consumption and pollution. In the decision framework, decision makers in a same park, each of whom have different goals and preferences, work together to seek a collective benefit. Similar to a Stackelberg-Nash game, the proposed approach illuminates the decision making interrelationships and involves in the conflict coordination between the park authority and the individual coal chemical company stockholders. In the proposed method, to response to climate change and other uncertainties, a risk assessment tool, Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and uncertainties through reflecting parameters and coefficients using probability and fuzzy set theory are integrated in the modeling process. Then a case study from Yuheng coal chemical park is presented to demonstrate the practicality and efficiency of the optimization model. To reasonable search the potential consequences of different responses to water and waste load allocation strategies, a number of scenario results considering environmental uncertainty and decision maker' attitudes are examined to explore the tradeoffs between economic development and environmental protection and decision makers' objectives. The results are helpful for decision/police makers to adjust current strategies adapting for current changes. Based on the scenario analyses and discussion, some propositions and operational policies are given and sensitive adaptation strategies are presented to support the efficient, balanced and sustainable development of coal chemical industrial parks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advancing Consumer Product Composition and Chemical ...

Science.gov (United States)

This presentation describes EPA efforts to collect, model, and measure publically available consumer product data for use in exposure assessment. The development of the ORD Chemicals and Products database will be described, as will machine-learning based models for predicting chemical function. Finally, the talk describes new mass spectrometry-based methods for measuring chemicals in formulation and articles. This presentation is an invited talk to the ICCA-LRI workshop "Fit-For-Purpose Exposure Assessments For Risk-Based Decision Making". The talk will share EPA efforts to characterize the components of consumer products for use in exposure assessment with the international exposure science community.

About Using Predictive Models and Tools To Assess Chemicals under TSCA

Science.gov (United States)

As part of EPA's effort to promote chemical safety, OPPT provides public access to predictive models and tools which can help inform the public on the hazards and risks of substances and improve chemical management decisions.

Development of an ecological decision support system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Beusekom, Frits; Brazier, Frances; Schipper, Piet; Treur, Jan; del Pobil, A.P.

1998-01-01

In this paper a knowledge-based decision support system is described that determines the abiotic (chemical and physical) characteristics of a site on the basis of in-homogeneous samples of plant species. Techniques from the area of non-monotonic reasoning are applied to model multi-interpretable

Rational group decision making in risk situations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, M.H.

1987-01-01

Risk management has received increasing attention recently as methods of quantifying risk have been evolving. This is considered a legitimate tendency in the context of the entirety of risk evaluation which connotes both risk quantification and decisions making thereon. A risk-free society does not appear possible; neither could one have zero competing risks or cost versus benefit resulting out of a risk-abatement effort. What further complicates the risk-decision problem is that there exists more than a single decision maker, who claim their own interests associated with risk decision. Furthermore, their risk perceptions are not at all same that the threshold risk levels for a particular actions are varying. In this dissertation, a brief survey on existing action levels for various sort of risk situations including carcinogens, toxic chemicals, etc., is reported on, with emphasis on nuclear risk situation. A decision theoretic approach is then adopted in both individual and group-level risk management. For the purpose of exemplification, multiplicative utility theory is applied for nuclear power risk; attributes derived for this specific purpose are discussed

PERUBAHAN CARA PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN OLEH PETANI PENGENDALIAN HAMA TERPADU (PHT DALAM MENGGUNAKAN PESTISIDA KIMIA PADA PADI (The Change of Chemical Pesticides Use Decision Making in Rice by Intergrated Farms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irham Irham

2001-08-01

Full Text Available ABSTRAK Pestisida kimia merupakan salah satu masukan dalam produksi padi yang berfungsi untuk menekan kehilangan hasil oleh serangan hama dan penyakit. Penggunaan pestisida kimia harus bijaksana karena selain memberi manfaat juga menimbulkan bahaya terhadap kesehatan dan lingkungan. Banyak petani yang menggunakan pestisida kimia dengan dasar pencegahan, yaitu tanpa mempertimbangkan keadaan serangan hama dan penyakit sehingga penggunaannya cenderung berlebih. Pengendalian Hama Terpadu (PHT diperkenalkan kepada petani melalui Sekolah Lapangan (SL PHT, dengan tujuan untuk nrengurangi pestisida kimia,  dan hanya digunakan jika memang diperlukan. Hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa SLPHT telah mengubah cara pengambilan keputusan dalam menggunakan pestisida kimia. Keadaan ini menyebabkan penggunaan pestisida kimia menjadi berkurang.   ABSTRACT Chemical pesticide is one of the inputs in rice production used to protect yield loss caused by pest attack. Chemical pesticides should be used wisely as they pose threat to human health and pollute environment. Many farmers use chemical pesticide based on prophylactic concept, that is using chemical pesticides without taking into consideration the level of pest attack, which leads to an excessive use. Integrated Pest Management (IPM concept is introduced to farmers through Farmer’s Field School (FFS in order to reduce chemical pesticides use. According to the IPM principle, farmers can use chemical pesticides when necessary. Results of this study show that farmers have changed their decision-making in chemical pesticides use after adopting IPM concept through participation at FFS in IPM. This condition causes decline in chemical pesticide use.

Decision support systems for major accident prevention in the chemical process industry : A developers' survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reniers, Genserik L L; Ale, B. J.M.; Dullaert, W.; Foubert, B.

2006-01-01

Solid major accident prevention management is characterized by efficient and effective risk assessments. As a means of addressing the efficiency aspect, decision support analysis software is becoming increasingly available. This paper discusses the results of a survey of decision support tools for

Knowledge based decision making: perspective on natural gas production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ydstie, B. Erik; Stuland, Kjetil M.

2009-07-01

Conclusions (drawn by the author): Decarbonization of energy sources - From coal to renewable. Natural Gas Abundantly available - Norway is no. 3 exporter. Natural gas important as - Hydrogen source for chemicals; - Electricity; - End consumer usage (heating etc). Large potential for application of model based decision making; - Where and when to install platforms and drill wells - How to operate platforms and pipeline systems; - How to operate and optimize chemical production; - Optimization of electricity generation systems. (author)

Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Chikalov, Igor

2011-01-01

In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be \\'over-fitted\\', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes, it is more appropriate to work with partial decision rules with smaller number of attributes. Based on results for set cover problem authors study bounds on accuracy of greedy algorithm for exact and partial decision rule construction, and complexity of the problem of minimization of decision rule length. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

A crisis management decision support system to reduce ingestion dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schenker-Wicki, A.; Gibbert, R.

1993-01-01

Environmental accidents such as extensive radioactive or chemical contamination can have more serious consequences for a population than any other kind of accidents known before. Owing to the serious consequences and the high number of people who may be affected, the selection of the best countermeasures to ameliorate the imminent impact is very difficult and the political responsibility is enormous. To help overcome such problems the National Emergency Operations Center in Zurich (Switzerland) has developed a decision support system to evaluate acceptable countermeasures for reducing ingestion dose after an accidental release of radioactive material. The system involves all the necessary modules and techniques for efficient decision making, based on the most recent developments in decision theory as well as the necessary structuring of the decision-making process. The decision-making concept comprehends decision making on two different levels, a technical and a political one. (author)

COMPUTER SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR ESTIMATING CHEMICAL TOXICITY: PRESENT CAPABILITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

Science.gov (United States)

Computer Support Systems for Estimating Chemical Toxicity: Present Capabilities and Future Trends A wide variety of computer-based artificial intelligence (AI) and decision support systems exist currently to aid in the assessment of toxicity for environmental chemicals. T...

Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Chikalov, Igor; Zielosko, Beata

2011-01-01

In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be 'over-fitted', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes

Decision support for dynamic greenhouse climate control strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Körner, O.; Straten, van G.

2008-01-01

Earlier, different dynamic greenhouse climate regimes were designed with various aims as energy saving, biocide reduction or reduction of chemical growth retardants that are used for quality improvement. The aim of this research was to create a decision support tool in order to decide at which week

Management of evacuation in case of fire accidents in chemical industrial areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reniers, G.L.L.; Pauwels, N.; Audenaert, A.; Ale, B.J.M.; Soudan, K.

2007-01-01

Trade-offs between economic and safety arguments exist in the operation of chemical installations, should knock-on calamities induced by fire accidents occur: a sudden installation shutdown might result in substantial economic losses, but may be needed to ensure safety. Due to the very rare nature of domino effect risks induced decision problems an adequate evacuation decision aid model to be used by plant safety management does, to the best of the authors' knowledge, not exist. This paper develops a tentative approach to calculate the economic gains and/or losses linked to the decision problem whether or not, and when, to evacuate chemical installation(s) threatened by possible domino effect risks. The proposed model is illustrated by a case-study based on empirical data

Chemical and radiation environmental risk management at the crossroads: Case studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tran, N.; Burke, T.; Locke, P.

1999-01-01

Although many of the major environmental risk management decisions we face today require the simultaneous evaluation and control of both radiological and chemical risks, the separation of radiation and chemical risk management persists along legal, regulatory, programmatic, training and professional practice levels. In June 1998, a panel of 40 chemical and radiation risk experts met at an interactive workshop entitled 'Addressing the Similarities and Differences in Chemical and Radiation Environmental Risk Management,' in Annapolis, Maryland to discuss several perspectives on harmonizing chemical and radiation risk management approaches. At the conclusion of the meeting, workshop participants recommended that case studies of clean-up sites at which radioactive materials and hazardous chemical risks were addressed, be developed to help educate participants in the harmonization dialogue about their counterpart's issues, stimulate discussion and sharpen issues in a way that they can be resolved. Several key risk management issues that were highlighted from the discussion at the Annapolis meeting are being evaluated in the case studies. They include: decision criteria, costs and public/stakeholder input. This paper presents these key issues and the approach taken in the case studies. (author)

Neuromodulation of Nestmate Recognition Decisions by Pavement Ants.

Science.gov (United States)

Bubak, Andrew N; Yaeger, Jazmine D W; Renner, Kenneth J; Swallow, John G; Greene, Michael J

2016-01-01

Ant colonies are distributed systems that are regulated in a non-hierarchical manner. Without a central authority, individuals inform their decisions by comparing information in local cues to a set of inherent behavioral rules. Individual behavioral decisions collectively change colony behavior and lead to self-organization capable of solving complex problems such as the decision to engage in aggressive societal conflicts with neighbors. Despite the relevance to colony fitness, the mechanisms that drive individual decisions leading to cooperative behavior are not well understood. Here we show how sensory information, both tactile and chemical, and social context-isolation, nestmate interaction, or fighting non-nestmates-affects brain monoamine levels in pavement ants (Tetramorium caespitum). Our results provide evidence that changes in octopamine and serotonin in the brains of individuals are sufficient to alter the decision by pavement ants to be aggressive towards non-nestmate ants whereas increased brain levels of dopamine correlate to physical fighting. We propose a model in which the changes in brain states of many workers collectively lead to the self-organization of societal aggression between neighboring colonies of pavement ants.

Decision support tools for policy and planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacyk, P.; Schultz, D.; Spangenberg, L.

1995-01-01

A decision support system (DSS) is being developed at the Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The DSS will be used to evaluate alternatives for improving LANL's existing central radioactive waste water treatment plant and to evaluate new site-wide liquid waste treatment schemes that are required in order to handle the diverse waste streams produced at LANL. The decision support system consists of interacting modules that perform the following tasks: rigorous process simulation, configuration management, performance analysis, cost analysis, risk analysis, environmental impact assessment, transportation modeling, and local, state, and federal regulation compliance checking. Uncertainty handling techniques are used with these modules and also with a decision synthesis module which combines results from the modules listed above. We believe the DSS being developed can be applied to almost any other industrial water treatment facility with little modification because in most situations the waste streams are less complex, fewer regulations apply, and the political environment is simpler. The techniques being developed are also generally applicable to policy and planning decision support systems in the chemical process industry

Probing the neurochemical correlates of motivation and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Wassum, Kate M; Phillips, Paul E M

2015-01-21

Online electrochemical detection techniques are the state-of-the-art for evaluating chemical communication in the brain underlying motivated behavior and decision making. In this Viewpoint, we discuss avenues for future technological development, as well as the requirement for increasingly sophisticated and interdisciplinary behavioral analysis.

Neuromodulation of Nestmate Recognition Decisions by Pavement Ants.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew N Bubak

Full Text Available Ant colonies are distributed systems that are regulated in a non-hierarchical manner. Without a central authority, individuals inform their decisions by comparing information in local cues to a set of inherent behavioral rules. Individual behavioral decisions collectively change colony behavior and lead to self-organization capable of solving complex problems such as the decision to engage in aggressive societal conflicts with neighbors. Despite the relevance to colony fitness, the mechanisms that drive individual decisions leading to cooperative behavior are not well understood. Here we show how sensory information, both tactile and chemical, and social context-isolation, nestmate interaction, or fighting non-nestmates-affects brain monoamine levels in pavement ants (Tetramorium caespitum. Our results provide evidence that changes in octopamine and serotonin in the brains of individuals are sufficient to alter the decision by pavement ants to be aggressive towards non-nestmate ants whereas increased brain levels of dopamine correlate to physical fighting. We propose a model in which the changes in brain states of many workers collectively lead to the self-organization of societal aggression between neighboring colonies of pavement ants.

Life Cycle assessment of basic chemicals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Stig Irving

, the most important application are in research and development to improve the environmental performance of processes and products, and as support for strategic decision making. However, the coherence between LCA and decision making needs to be addressed more specifically because most companies...... in the survey did not think LCA is sufficiently fit to support strategic decision making. Because, the chemical industry is a major supplier to other product systems the major incentive to perform LCAs has been to comply with customer requirements. An LCA may not always need to be very detailed to fulfil...... and output data (together interventions) from all unit processes in the system and assessing the potential environmental impact of these interventions. The LCA framework comprise four phases which are iteratively interlinked: · Goal and scope definition · Inventory · Impact assessment · Interpretation...

Improving Re-Enlistment through Decision-Making Modeling and Intervention

Science.gov (United States)

1990-03-01

everything from politics easily and quickly all useful facts and opinions. It to finance to sports, decisions are not based on then synthesizes these... Disneyland ferred method of evaluating jobs both reliably Disney World and validly. Possibly the greatest benefit of JEBOR Dow Chemical Company to the user

Decision and Inhibitory Trees for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2018-06-06

Decision trees are one of the most commonly used tools in decision analysis, knowledge representation, machine learning, etc., for its simplicity and interpretability. We consider an extension of dynamic programming approach to process the whole set of decision trees for the given decision table which was previously only attainable by brute-force algorithms. We study decision tables with many-valued decisions (each row may contain multiple decisions) because they are more reasonable models of data in many cases. To address this problem in a broad sense, we consider not only decision trees but also inhibitory trees where terminal nodes are labeled with “̸= decision”. Inhibitory trees can sometimes describe more knowledge from datasets than decision trees. As for cost functions, we consider depth or average depth to minimize time complexity of trees, and the number of nodes or the number of the terminal, or nonterminal nodes to minimize the space complexity of trees. We investigate the multi-stage optimization of trees relative to some cost functions, and also the possibility to describe the whole set of strictly optimal trees. Furthermore, we study the bi-criteria optimization cost vs. cost and cost vs. uncertainty for decision trees, and cost vs. cost and cost vs. completeness for inhibitory trees. The most interesting application of the developed technique is the creation of multi-pruning and restricted multi-pruning approaches which are useful for knowledge representation and prediction. The experimental results show that decision trees constructed by these approaches can often outperform the decision trees constructed by the CART algorithm. Another application includes the comparison of 12 greedy heuristics for single- and bi-criteria optimization (cost vs. cost) of trees. We also study the three approaches (decision tables with many-valued decisions, decision tables with most common decisions, and decision tables with generalized decisions) to handle

Land use planning and chemical sites. Summary report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grønberg, Carsten D.

2000-01-01

A methodology for land-use planning involving chemical sites has been developed for making decisions in local and regional administrations. The methodology treats land-use planning as a multi criteria decision and structures the planning process in sevensteps, where one can loop through the steps...... several times. Essential for the methodology is the specification of objectives setting the frame in which the alternatives are assessed and compared. The complete list of objectives includes the followingitems: safety and accidents, public distortion and health, environmental impact, cultural and natural...

Physico-chemical properties of manufactured nanomaterials - Characterisation and relevant methods. An outlook based on the OECD Testing Programme.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rasmussen, Kirsten; Rauscher, Hubert; Mech, Agnieszka; Riego Sintes, Juan; Gilliland, Douglas; González, Mar; Kearns, Peter; Moss, Kenneth; Visser, Maaike; Groenewold, Monique; Bleeker, Eric A J

Identifying and characterising nanomaterials require additional information on physico-chemical properties and test methods, compared to chemicals in general. Furthermore, regulatory decisions for chemicals are usually based upon certain toxicological properties, and these effects may not be

Property Model-Based Chemcal Substitution and Chemical Formulation Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jhamb, Spardha Virendra; Liang, Xiaodong; Hukkerikar, Amol Shivajirao

Chemical-based products including structured product formulations and single molecule products have proven to be a boon to mankind and have been a significant part of our economies. Our life and the changes around us cannot be imagined without the presence or involvement of chemicals. But like...... with environmentally benign chemicals. Additionally, the decisions taken during chemical product design also have an impact on the process and product performance and are influenced by company strategy, availability of market and government policies [2]. Hence, undoubtedly there is a need to develop a systematic...... [3] will also be highlighted. A set of new group contribution-based models for a number of useful properties of amino acids will be presented. Through examples on substitution of chemicals from chemical-based products from various sectors namely cosmetics and personal care, pharmaceutical and food...

Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

CERN Document Server

Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

2012-01-01

Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

A suggested approach to the selection of chemical and biological protective clothing--meeting industry and emergency response needs for protection against a variety of hazards.

Science.gov (United States)

Stull, Jeffrey O

2004-01-01

The paper describes the development of a comprehensive decision logic for selection and use of biological and chemical protective clothing (BCPC). The decision logic recognizes the separate areas of BCPC use among emergency, biological, and chemical hazards. The proposed decision logic provides a system for type classifying BCPC in terms of its compliance with existing standards (for emergency applications), the overall clothing integrity, and the material barrier performance. Type classification is offered for garments, gloves, footwear, and eye/face protection devices. On the basis of multiple, but simply designed flowcharts, the type of BCPC appropriate for specific biological and chemical hazards can be selected. The decision logic also provides supplemental considerations for choosing appropriate BCPC features.

Multi-scale modeling for sustainable chemical production.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Kai; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Herrgård, Markus J

2013-09-01

With recent advances in metabolic engineering, it is now technically possible to produce a wide portfolio of existing petrochemical products from biomass feedstock. In recent years, a number of modeling approaches have been developed to support the engineering and decision-making processes associated with the development and implementation of a sustainable biochemical industry. The temporal and spatial scales of modeling approaches for sustainable chemical production vary greatly, ranging from metabolic models that aid the design of fermentative microbial strains to material and monetary flow models that explore the ecological impacts of all economic activities. Research efforts that attempt to connect the models at different scales have been limited. Here, we review a number of existing modeling approaches and their applications at the scales of metabolism, bioreactor, overall process, chemical industry, economy, and ecosystem. In addition, we propose a multi-scale approach for integrating the existing models into a cohesive framework. The major benefit of this proposed framework is that the design and decision-making at each scale can be informed, guided, and constrained by simulations and predictions at every other scale. In addition, the development of this multi-scale framework would promote cohesive collaborations across multiple traditionally disconnected modeling disciplines to achieve sustainable chemical production. Copyright © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barfod, Michael Bruhn

The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

Decision and Inhibitory Rule Optimization for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Alsolami, Fawaz

2016-04-25

‘If-then’ rule sets are one of the most expressive and human-readable knowledge representations. This thesis deals with optimization and analysis of decision and inhibitory rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. The most important areas of applications are knowledge extraction and representation. The benefit of considering inhibitory rules is connected with the fact that in some situations they can describe more knowledge than the decision ones. Decision tables with many-valued decisions arise in combinatorial optimization, computational geometry, fault diagnosis, and especially under the processing of data sets. In this thesis, various examples of real-life problems are considered which help to understand the motivation of the investigation. We extend relatively simple results obtained earlier for decision rules over decision tables with many-valued decisions to the case of inhibitory rules. The behavior of Shannon functions (which characterize complexity of rule systems) is studied for finite and infinite information systems, for global and local approaches, and for decision and inhibitory rules. The extensions of dynamic programming for the study of decision rules over decision tables with single-valued decisions are generalized to the case of decision tables with many-valued decisions. These results are also extended to the case of inhibitory rules. As a result, we have algorithms (i) for multi-stage optimization of rules relative to such criteria as length or coverage, (ii) for counting the number of optimal rules, (iii) for construction of Pareto optimal points for bi-criteria optimization problems, (iv) for construction of graphs describing relationships between two cost functions, and (v) for construction of graphs describing relationships between cost and accuracy of rules. The applications of created tools include comparison (based on information about Pareto optimal points) of greedy heuristics for bi-criteria optimization of rules

Regulating chemicals: law, science, and the unbearable burdens of regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Silbergeld, Ellen K; Mandrioli, Daniele; Cranor, Carl F

2015-03-18

The challenges of regulating industrial chemicals remain unresolved in the United States. The Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) of 1976 was the first legislation to extend coverage to the regulation of industrial chemicals, both existing and newly registered. However, decisions related to both law and science that were made in passing this law inevitably rendered it ineffectual. Attempts to fix these shortcomings have not been successful. In light of the European Union's passage of innovative principles and requirements for chemical regulation, it is no longer possible to deny the opportunity and need for reform in US law and practice.

Factors influencing recovery and restoration following a chemical incident.

Science.gov (United States)

Peña-Fernández, A; Wyke, S; Brooke, N; Duarte-Davidson, R

2014-11-01

Chemicals are an important part of our society. A wide range of chemicals are discharged into the environment every day from residential, commercial and industrial sources. Many of these discharges do not pose a threat to public health or the environment. However, global events have shown that chemical incidents or accidents can have severe consequences on human health, the environment and society. It is important that appropriate tools and technical guidance are available to ensure that a robust and efficient approach to developing a remediation strategy is adopted. The purpose of remediation is to protect human health from future exposure and to return the affected area back to normal as soon as possible. There are a range of recovery options (techniques or methods for remediation) that are applicable to a broad range of chemicals and incidents. Recovery options should be evaluated according to their appropriateness and efficacy for removing contaminants from the environment; however economic drivers and social and political considerations often influence decision makers on which remedial actions are implemented during the recovery phase of a chemical incident. To date, there is limited information in the literature on remediation strategies and recovery options that have been implemented following a chemical incident, or how successful they have been. Additional factors that can affect the approach taken for recovery are not well assessed or understood by decision makers involved in the remediation and restoration of the environment following a chemical incident. The identification of this gap has led to the development of the UK Recovery Handbook for Chemical Incidents to provide a framework for choosing an effective recovery strategy. A compendium of practical evidence-based recovery options (techniques or methods for remediation) for inhabited areas, food production systems and water environments has also been developed and is included in the chemical

Info-gap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Ben-Haim, Yakov

2006-01-01

Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term ""decision analyst"" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts,

Physico-chemical properties of radionuclides emitted as particulate matter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Kasper Grann

2016-01-01

This paper presents work done to improve the representation in European decision support tools of physico-chemical forms of radiocontaminants released to the atmosphere from a major nuclear power plant accident. The task is to accommodate those types of scenarios where fuel particles are at play....

Numerical Modeling of Mixing of Chemically Reacting, Non-Newtonian Slurry for Tank Waste Retrieval

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuen, David A.; Onishi, Yasuo; Rustad, James R.; Michener, Thomas E.; Felmy, Andrew R.; Ten, Arkady A.; Hier, Catherine A.

2000-01-01

Many highly radioactive wastes will be retrieved by installing mixer pumps that inject high-speed jets to stir up the sludge, saltcake, and supernatant liquid in the tank, blending them into a slurry. This slurry will then be pumped out of the tank into a waste treatment facility. Our objectives are to investigate interactions-chemical reactions, waste rheology, and slurry mixing-occurring during the retrieval operation and to provide a scientific basis for the waste retrieval decision-making process. Specific objectives are to: (1) Evaluate numerical modeling of chemically active, non-Newtonian tank waste mixing, coupled with chemical reactions and realistic rheology; (2) Conduct numerical modeling analysis of local and global mixing of non-Newtonian and Newtonian slurries; and (3) Provide the bases to develop a scientifically justifiable, decision-making support tool for the tank waste retrieval operation

Helping decision makers frame, analyze, and implement decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2018-01-01

All decisions have the same recognizable elements. Context, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and deliberation. Decision makers and analysts familiar with these elements can quickly see the underlying structure of a decision.There are only a small number of classes of decisions. These classes differ in the cognitive and scientific challenge they present to the decision maker; the ability to recognize the class of decision leads a decision maker to tools to aid in the analysis.Sometimes we need more information, sometimes we don’t. The role of science in a decision-making process is to provide the predictions that link the alternative actions to the desired outcomes. Investing in more science is only valuable if it helps to choose a better action.Implementation. The successful integration of decision analysis into environmental decisions requires careful attention to the decision, the people, and the institutions involved.

Multi-stage optimization of decision and inhibitory trees for decision tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2017-06-16

We study problems of optimization of decision and inhibitory trees for decision tables with many-valued decisions. As cost functions, we consider depth, average depth, number of nodes, and number of terminal/nonterminal nodes in trees. Decision tables with many-valued decisions (multi-label decision tables) are often more accurate models for real-life data sets than usual decision tables with single-valued decisions. Inhibitory trees can sometimes capture more information from decision tables than decision trees. In this paper, we create dynamic programming algorithms for multi-stage optimization of trees relative to a sequence of cost functions. We apply these algorithms to prove the existence of totally optimal (simultaneously optimal relative to a number of cost functions) decision and inhibitory trees for some modified decision tables from the UCI Machine Learning Repository.

Multi-stage optimization of decision and inhibitory trees for decision tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2017-01-01

We study problems of optimization of decision and inhibitory trees for decision tables with many-valued decisions. As cost functions, we consider depth, average depth, number of nodes, and number of terminal/nonterminal nodes in trees. Decision tables with many-valued decisions (multi-label decision tables) are often more accurate models for real-life data sets than usual decision tables with single-valued decisions. Inhibitory trees can sometimes capture more information from decision tables than decision trees. In this paper, we create dynamic programming algorithms for multi-stage optimization of trees relative to a sequence of cost functions. We apply these algorithms to prove the existence of totally optimal (simultaneously optimal relative to a number of cost functions) decision and inhibitory trees for some modified decision tables from the UCI Machine Learning Repository.

Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2014-09-13

The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2014-01-01

The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

Computational Prediction of Blood-Brain Barrier Permeability Using Decision Tree Induction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jörg Huwyler

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Predicting blood-brain barrier (BBB permeability is essential to drug development, as a molecule cannot exhibit pharmacological activity within the brain parenchyma without first transiting this barrier. Understanding the process of permeation, however, is complicated by a combination of both limited passive diffusion and active transport. Our aim here was to establish predictive models for BBB drug permeation that include both active and passive transport. A database of 153 compounds was compiled using in vivo surface permeability product (logPS values in rats as a quantitative parameter for BBB permeability. The open source Chemical Development Kit (CDK was used to calculate physico-chemical properties and descriptors. Predictive computational models were implemented by machine learning paradigms (decision tree induction on both descriptor sets. Models with a corrected classification rate (CCR of 90% were established. Mechanistic insight into BBB transport was provided by an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO-based binary classifier analysis to identify the most predictive chemical substructures. Decision trees revealed descriptors of lipophilicity (aLogP and charge (polar surface area, which were also previously described in models of passive diffusion. However, measures of molecular geometry and connectivity were found to be related to an active drug transport component.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of chemical testing for decision-support: How to include animal welfare?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gabbert, S.G.M.; Ierland, van E.C.

2010-01-01

Toxicity testing for regulatory purposes raises the question of test selection for a particular endpoint. Given the public's concern for animal welfare, test selection is a multi-objective decision problem that requires balancing information outcome, animal welfare loss, and monetary testing costs.

Voluntary cleanup of the Ames chemical disposal site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taboas, A.L.; Freeman, R.; Peterson, J.

2003-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy completed a voluntary removal action at the Ames chemical disposal site, a site associated with the early days of the Manhattan Project. It contained chemical and low-level radioactive wastes from development of the technology to extract uranium from uranium oxide. The process included the preparation of a Remedial Investigation, Feasibility Study, Baseline Risk Assessment, and, ultimately, issuance of a Record of Decision. Various stakeholder groups were involved, including members of the regulatory community, the general public, and the landowner, Iowa State University. The site was restored and returned to the landowner for unrestricted use.

Challenges Associated With Applying Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling for Public Health Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

The development and application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models in chemical toxicology have grown steadily since their emergence in the 1980s. However, critical evaluation of PBPK models to support public health decision-making across federal agencies has t...

Mapping Students' Conceptual Modes When Thinking about Chemical Reactions Used to Make a Desired Product

Science.gov (United States)

Weinrich, M. L.; Talanquer, V.

2015-01-01

The central goal of this qualitative research study was to uncover major implicit assumptions that students with different levels of training in the discipline apply when thinking and making decisions about chemical reactions used to make a desired product. In particular, we elicited different ways of conceptualizing why chemical reactions happen…

Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kannegiesser, M.; Gunther, H.O.; van Beek, P.

2009-01-01

decisions by volume and value throughout the value chain to ensure profitability. Contract and spot demand differentiation with volatile and uncertain spot prices, spot sales quantity flexibility, spot sales price-quantity functions and variable raw material consumption rates in production are problem...... quantity, price and supply decisions throughout the value chain. A two-phase optimization approach supports robust planning ensuring minimum profitability even in case of worst-case spot sales price scenarios. Model evaluations with industry case data demonstrate the impact of elasticities, variable raw......We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply...

Decision and Inhibitory Rule Optimization for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Alsolami, Fawaz

2016-01-01

‘If-then’ rule sets are one of the most expressive and human-readable knowledge representations. This thesis deals with optimization and analysis of decision and inhibitory rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. The most important

Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

2007-01-01

Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process

Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

Science.gov (United States)

Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

2007-08-01

Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process.

Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models

CERN Document Server

Willett, Roger; Brown, Kerry; Mathew, Joseph

2012-01-01

Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models, is the second volume of the Engineering Asset Management Review Series. The manuscripts provide examples of implementations of asset information systems as well as some practical applications of condition data for diagnostics and prognostics. The increasing trend is towards prognostics rather than diagnostics, hence the need for assessment and decision models that promote the conversion of condition data into prognostic information to improve life-cycle planning for engineered assets. The research papers included here serve to support the on-going development of Condition Monitoring standards. This volume comprises selected papers from the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd World Congresses on Engineering Asset Management, which were convened under the auspices of ISEAM in collaboration with a number of organisations, including CIEAM Australia, Asset Management Council Australia, BINDT UK, and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Chin...

Electronic Nose Odor Classification with Advanced Decision Tree Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Guney

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Electronic nose (e-nose is an electronic device which can measure chemical compounds in air and consequently classify different odors. In this paper, an e-nose device consisting of 8 different gas sensors was designed and constructed. Using this device, 104 different experiments involving 11 different odor classes (moth, angelica root, rose, mint, polis, lemon, rotten egg, egg, garlic, grass, and acetone were performed. The main contribution of this paper is the finding that using the chemical domain knowledge it is possible to train an accurate odor classification system. The domain knowledge about chemical compounds is represented by a decision tree whose nodes are composed of classifiers such as Support Vector Machines and k-Nearest Neighbor. The overall accuracy achieved with the proposed algorithm and the constructed e-nose device was 97.18 %. Training and testing data sets used in this paper are published online.

The Characteristics of the Exergy Reference Environment and Its Implications for Sustainability-Based Decision-Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen Murphy

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In the energy realm there is a pressing need to make decisions in a complex world characterized by biophysical limits. Exergy has been promoted as a preferred means of characterizing the impacts of resource consumption and waste production for the purpose of improving decision-making. This paper provides a unique and critical analysis of universal and comprehensive formulations of the chemical exergy reference environment, for the purpose of better understanding how exergy can inform decision-making. Four related insights emerged from the analysis, notably: (1 standard and universal chemical exergy reference environments necessarily encounter internal inconsistencies and even contradictions in their very formulations; (2 these inconsistencies are a result of incompatibility between the exergy reference environment and natural environment, and the desire to model the exergy reference environment after the natural environment so as to maintain analytical relevance; (3 the topics for which exergy is most appropriate as an analytical tool are not well served by comprehensive reference environments, and (4 the inconsistencies point to a need for deeper reflection of whether it is appropriate to adopt a thermodynamic frame of analysis for situations whose relevant characteristics are non-thermodynamic (e.g., to characterize scarcity. The use of comprehensive reference environments may lead to incorrect recommendations and ultimately reduce its appeal for informing decision-making. Exergy may better inform decision-making by returning to process dependent reference states that model specific processes and situations for the purpose of engineering optimization.

Humans Optimize Decision-Making by Delaying Decision Onset

Science.gov (United States)

Teichert, Tobias; Ferrera, Vincent P.; Grinband, Jack

2014-01-01

Why do humans make errors on seemingly trivial perceptual decisions? It has been shown that such errors occur in part because the decision process (evidence accumulation) is initiated before selective attention has isolated the relevant sensory information from salient distractors. Nevertheless, it is typically assumed that subjects increase accuracy by prolonging the decision process rather than delaying decision onset. To date it has not been tested whether humans can strategically delay decision onset to increase response accuracy. To address this question we measured the time course of selective attention in a motion interference task using a novel variant of the response signal paradigm. Based on these measurements we estimated time-dependent drift rate and showed that subjects should in principle be able trade speed for accuracy very effectively by delaying decision onset. Using the time-dependent estimate of drift rate we show that subjects indeed delay decision onset in addition to raising response threshold when asked to stress accuracy over speed in a free reaction version of the same motion-interference task. These findings show that decision onset is a critical aspect of the decision process that can be adjusted to effectively improve decision accuracy. PMID:24599295

Collective Decision Making as the Actualization of Decision Potential

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrej Ule

2009-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents some characteristics and dilemmas of collective decision making. Collective decision making could be presented as the process of successive crystallization of dominant alternatives under the influence of different decision contexts from primary given decision potentials. This process is presented as the many-phased process of the acting of contextually dependent “energizing factors” of the collective decision making on the “attractiveness matrix” of outcomes of collective decisions. The attractiveness matrix determines the attractiveness for each alternative of decision, and the most attractive alternative in the given situation presents the rational decision in the given situation. In the final phase of decision making holds a context which gets a simplified attractiveness matrix. It corresponds to the common decision for one of the alternatives.

Anemonefishes rely on visual and chemical cues to correctly identify conspecifics

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Nicole K.; Dixson, Danielle L.

2017-09-01

Organisms rely on sensory cues to interpret their environment and make important life-history decisions. Accurate recognition is of particular importance in diverse reef environments. Most evidence on the use of sensory cues focuses on those used in predator avoidance or habitat recognition, with little information on their role in conspecific recognition. Yet conspecific recognition is essential for life-history decisions including settlement, mate choice, and dominance interactions. Using a sensory manipulated tank and a two-chamber choice flume, anemonefish conspecific response was measured in the presence and absence of chemical and/or visual cues. Experiments were then repeated in the presence or absence of two heterospecific species to evaluate whether a heterospecific fish altered the conspecific response. Anemonefishes responded to both the visual and chemical cues of conspecifics, but relied on the combination of the two cues to recognize conspecifics inside the sensory manipulated tank. These results contrast previous studies focusing on predator detection where anemonefishes were found to compensate for the loss of one sensory cue (chemical) by utilizing a second cue (visual). This lack of sensory compensation may impact the ability of anemonefishes to acclimate to changing reef environments in the future.

Risk-based high-throughput chemical screening and prioritization using exposure models and in vitro bioactivity assays

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shin, Hyeong-Moo; Ernstoff, Alexi; Arnot, Jon

2015-01-01

We present a risk-based high-throughput screening (HTS) method to identify chemicals for potential health concerns or for which additional information is needed. The method is applied to 180 organic chemicals as a case study. We first obtain information on how the chemical is used and identify....../oral contact, or dermal exposure. The method provides high-throughput estimates of exposure and important input for decision makers to identify chemicals of concern for further evaluation with additional information or more refined models....

Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krummel, J.R.; Policastro, A.J.; Olshansky, S.J.; McGinnis, L.D.

1990-10-01

As part of the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program mandated by Public Law 99--145 (Department of Defense Authorization Act), an independent review is presented of the US Army Phase I environmental report for the disposal program at the Umatilla Depot Activity (UMDA) in Hermiston, Oregon. The Phase I report addressed new and additional concerns not incorporated in the final programmatic environmental impact statement (FPEIS). Those concerns were addressed by examining site-specific data for the Umatilla Depot Activity and by recommending the scope and content of a more detailed site-specific study. This independent review evaluates whether the new site-specific data presented in the Phase I report would alter the decision in favor of on-site disposal that was reached in the FPEIS, and whether the recommendations for the scope and content of the site-specific study are adequate. Based on the methods and assumptions presented in the FPEIS, the inclusion of more detailed site-specific data in the Phase I report does not change the decision reached in the FPEIS (which favored on-site disposal at UMDA). It is recommended that alternative assumptions about meteorological conditions be considered and that site-specific data on water, ecological, socioeconomic, and cultural resources; seismicity; and emergency planning and preparedness be considered explicitly in the site-specific EIS decision-making process. 7 refs., 1 fig.

Biomimetic chemical sensors using bioengineered olfactory and taste cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Liping; Zou, Ling; Zhao, Luhang; Wang, Ping; Wu, Chunsheng

2014-01-01

Biological olfactory and taste systems are natural chemical sensing systems with unique performances for the detection of environmental chemical signals. With the advances in olfactory and taste transduction mechanisms, biomimetic chemical sensors have achieved significant progress due to their promising prospects and potential applications. Biomimetic chemical sensors exploit the unique capability of biological functional components for chemical sensing, which are often sourced from sensing units of biological olfactory or taste systems at the tissue level, cellular level, or molecular level. Specifically, at the cellular level, there are mainly two categories of cells have been employed for the development of biomimetic chemical sensors, which are natural cells and bioengineered cells, respectively. Natural cells are directly isolated from biological olfactory and taste systems, which are convenient to achieve. However, natural cells often suffer from the undefined sensing properties and limited amount of identical cells. On the other hand, bioengineered cells have shown decisive advantages to be applied in the development of biomimetic chemical sensors due to the powerful biotechnology for the reconstruction of the cell sensing properties. Here, we briefly summarized the most recent advances of biomimetic chemical sensors using bioengineered olfactory and taste cells. The development challenges and future trends are discussed as well.

Decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, David W

2011-01-01

A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

Fitness for duty: A tried-and-true model for decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horn, G.L.

1989-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) rules and regulations pertaining to fitness for duty specify development of programs designed to ensure that nuclear power plant personnel are not under the influence of legal or illegal substances that cause mental or physical impairment of work performance such that public safety is compromised. These regulations specify the type of decision loop to employ in determining the employee's movement through the process of initial restriction of access to the point at which his access authorization is restores. Suggestions are also offered to determine the roles that various components of the organization should take in the decision loop. This paper discusses some implications and labor concerns arising from the suggested role of employee assistance programs (EAPs) in the decision loop for clinical assessment and return-to-work evaluation of chemical testing failures. A model for a decision loop addressing some of the issues raised is presented. The proposed model has been implemented in one nuclear facility and has withstood the scrutiny of an NRC audit

Risk analysis as a decision tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

Spatial Approaches for Ecological Screening and Exposure Assessment of Chemicals and Radionclides

Science.gov (United States)

This presentation details a tool, SADA, available for use in environmental assessments of chemicals that can also be used for radiological assessments of the environment. Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from e...

Risk Communication Emergency Response Preparedness: Contextual Assessment of the Protective Action Decision Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Heath, Robert L; Lee, Jaesub; Palenchar, Michael J; Lemon, Laura L

2018-02-01

Studies are continuously performed to improve risk communication campaign designs to better prepare residents to act in the safest manner during an emergency. To that end, this article investigates the predictive ability of the protective action decision model (PADM), which links environmental and social cues, predecision processes (attention, exposure, and comprehension), and risk decision perceptions (threat, alternative protective actions, and stakeholder norms) with protective action decision making. This current quasi-longitudinal study of residents (N = 400 for each year) in a high-risk (chemical release) petrochemical manufacturing community investigated whether PADM core risk perceptions predict protective action decision making. Telephone survey data collected at four intervals (1995, 1998, 2002, 2012) reveal that perceptions of protective actions and stakeholder norms, but not of threat, currently predict protective action decision making (intention to shelter in place). Of significance, rather than threat perceptions, perception of Wally Wise Guy (a spokes-character who advocates shelter in place) correlates with perceptions of protective action, stakeholder norms, and protective action decision making. Wally's response-efficacy advice predicts residents' behavioral intentions to shelter in place, thereby offering contextually sensitive support and refinement for PADM. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

An open framework for automated chemical hazard assessment based on GreenScreen for Safer Chemicals: A proof of concept.

Science.gov (United States)

Wehage, Kristopher; Chenhansa, Panan; Schoenung, Julie M

2017-01-01

GreenScreen® for Safer Chemicals is a framework for comparative chemical hazard assessment. It is the first transparent, open and publicly accessible framework of its kind, allowing manufacturers and governmental agencies to make informed decisions about the chemicals and substances used in consumer products and buildings. In the GreenScreen® benchmarking process, chemical hazards are assessed and classified based on 18 hazard endpoints from up to 30 different sources. The result is a simple numerical benchmark score and accompanying assessment report that allows users to flag chemicals of concern and identify safer alternatives. Although the screening process is straightforward, aggregating and sorting hazard data is tedious, time-consuming, and prone to human error. In light of these challenges, the present work demonstrates the usage of automation to cull chemical hazard data from publicly available internet resources, assign metadata, and perform a GreenScreen® hazard assessment using the GreenScreen® "List Translator." The automated technique, written as a module in the Python programming language, generates GreenScreen® List Translation data for over 3000 chemicals in approximately 30 s. Discussion of the potential benefits and limitations of automated techniques is provided. By embedding the library into a web-based graphical user interface, the extensibility of the library is demonstrated. The accompanying source code is made available to the hazard assessment community. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:167-176. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Risk Decision Making Based on Decision-theoretic Rough Set: A Three-way View Decision Model

OpenAIRE

Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou

2011-01-01

Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...

The use of decision analytic techniques in energy policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.O.

1986-08-01

The report reviews decision analytic techniques and their applications to energy policy decision making. Decision analysis consists in techniques for structuring the essential elements of a decision problem and mathematical methods for ranking the alternatives from a set of simple judgments. Because modeling subjective judgments is characteristic of decision analysis, the models can incorporate qualitative factors and values, which escape traditional energy modeling. Decision analysis has been applied to choices among energy supply alternatives, siting energy facilities, selecting nuclear waste repositories, selecting research and development projects, risk analysis and prioritizing alternative energy futures. Many applications are done in universities and research institutions, but during the 70's the use of decision analysis has spread both to the public and the private sector. The settings where decision analysis has been applied range from aiding a single decision maker to clarifying opposing points of view. Decision analytic methods have also been linked with energy models. The most valuable result of decision analysis is the clarification of the problem at hand. Political decisions cannot be made solely on the basis of models, but models can be used to gain insight of the decision situation. Models inevitably simplify reality, so they must be regarded only as aids to judgment. So far there has been only one decision analysis of energy policy issues in Finland with actual political decision makers as participants. The experiences of this project and numerous foreign applications do however suggest that the decision analytic approach is useful in energy policy questions. The report presents a number of Finnish energy policy decisions where decision analysis might prove useful. However, the applicability of the methods depends crucially on the actual circumstances at hand

Regulatory decision making by decision analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.

1993-11-01

The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)

Chemical apathy or hysteria: What role for education?

Science.gov (United States)

Klindworth, Andrea

1993-12-01

Emotional responses from local community groups to the establishment of new industrial activities, involving toxic chemicals, are common. The need for more public education about chemical hazards has often been stated. In the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, PCBs have been stored since 1985, pending their destruction. Council approval for the siting of a pilot plant for their treatment recently caused controversy. This paper presents an analysis of the situation, defines the knowledge needed by ordinary people to participate effectively and rationally in decision making and discusses the acquisition of that knowledge in a community setting. It is not the intention of the author to discuss the contribution that could be made through formal secondary education.

A decision model to allocate protective safety barriers and mitigate domino effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janssens, Jochen; Talarico, Luca; Reniers, Genserik; Sörensen, Kenneth

2015-01-01

In this paper, we present a model to support decision-makers about where to locate safety barriers and mitigate the consequences of an accident triggering domino effects. Based on the features of an industrial area that may be affected by domino accidents, and knowing the characteristics of the safety barriers that can be installed to stall the fire propagation between installations, the decision model can help practitioners in their decision-making. The model can be effectively used to decide how to allocate a limited budget in terms of safety barriers. The goal is to maximize the time-to-failure of a chemical installation ensuring a worst case scenario approach. The model is mathematically stated and a flexible and effective solution approach, based on metaheuristics, is developed and tested on an illustrative case study representing a tank storage area of a chemical company. We show that a myopic optimization approach, which does not take into account knock-on effects possibly triggered by an accident, can lead to a distribution of safety barriers that are not effective in mitigating the consequences of a domino accident. Moreover, the optimal allocation of safety barriers, when domino effects are considered, may depend on the so-called cardinality of the domino effects. - Highlights: • A model to allocate safety barriers and mitigate domino effects is proposed. • The goal is to maximize the escalation time of the worst case scenario. • The model provides useful recommendations for decision makers. • A fast metaheuristic approach is proposed to solve such a complex problem. • Numerical simulations on a realistic case study are shown

Tactical decision making under stress (TADMUS) decision support system

OpenAIRE

Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

1996-01-01

A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes and cognitive analysis of the decision making problems faced by Navy tactical officers in a shipboard Combat Information Center. Baseline testing in high intensity, peace keeping, littoral scenarios indicated...

The Effects Of Decision Framing Influences On Decision Performance

OpenAIRE

David Shelby Harrison; Sanela Porca

2011-01-01

This study investigates the effects of two components of decision framing [commitment and verbalization] in decision optimization, and how information quality impacts framing effects on decision performance. The theory of cognitive dissonance predicts that commitment to a decision will foster insensitivity to alternative choices. We find that such bias can be beneficial in certain decision strategies, and more powerfully influential as information quality worsens. We used an interactive compu...

Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials — The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

2016-01-01

and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a “holy grail” for informing risk management...

The impact of data integrity on decision making in early lead discovery

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Bernd; Seeliger, Daniel; Kriegl, Jan M.

2015-09-01

Data driven decision making is a key element of today's pharmaceutical research, including early drug discovery. It comprises questions like which target to pursue, which chemical series to pursue, which compound to make next, or which compound to select for advanced profiling and promotion to pre-clinical development. In the following paper we will exemplify how data integrity, i.e. the context data is generated in and auxiliary information that is provided for individual result records, can influence decision making in early lead discovery programs. In addition we will describe some approaches which we pursue at Boehringer Ingelheim to reduce the risk for getting misguided.

Decision and Inhibitory Trees for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2018-01-01

Decision trees are one of the most commonly used tools in decision analysis, knowledge representation, machine learning, etc., for its simplicity and interpretability. We consider an extension of dynamic programming approach to process the whole set

Nondestructive inspection of chemical warfare based on API-TOF

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xinhua; Zheng Pu; He Tie; An Li; Yang Jie; Fan Yu

2013-01-01

Background: Real-time, fast, accurate, nondestructive inspection (NDI) and quantitative analysis for chemical warfare are very imperative for chemical defense, anti-terror and nation security. Purpose: Associated Particles Technique (APT)/Neutron Time of Flight (TOF) has been developed for non-invasive inspection of sealed containers with chemical warfare agents. Methods: A prototype equipment for chemical warfare is consisted of an APT neutron generator with a 3×3 matrix of semiconductor detectors of associated alpha-particles, the shielding protection of neutron and gamma-ray, arrayed NaI(Tl)-based detectors of gamma-rays, fully-digital data acquisition electronics, data analysis, decision-making software, support platform and remote control system. Inelastic scattering gamma-ray pulse height spectra of sarin, VX, mustard gas and adamsite induced by 14-MeV neutron are measured. The energies of these gamma rays are used to identify the inelastic scattering elements, and the intensities of the peaks at these energies are used to reveal their concentrations. Results: The characteristic peaks of inelastic scattering gamma-ray pulse height spectra show that the prototype equipment can fast and accurately inspect chemical warfare. Conclusion: The equipment can be used to detect not only chemical warfare agents but also other hazardous materials, such as chemical/toxic/drug materials, if their chemical composition is in any way different from that of the surrounding materials. (authors)

Computational Methods to Assess the Production Potential of Bio-Based Chemicals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Campodonico, Miguel A; Sukumara, Sumesh; Feist, Adam M.

2018-01-01

are described in detail. The first tool is GEM-Path: an algorithm to compute all structurally possible pathways from one target molecule to the host metabolome. The second tool is a framework for Modeling Sustainable Industrial Chemicals production (MuSIC), which integrates modeling approaches for cellular...... metabolism, bioreactor design, upstream/downstream processes, and economic impact assessment. Integrating GEM-Path and MuSIC will play a vital role in supporting early phases of research efforts and guide the policy makers with decisions, as we progress toward planning a sustainable chemical industry....

Applications of decision theory to test-based decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Linden, Willem J.

1987-01-01

The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be

Greedy Algorithm for the Construction of Approximate Decision Rules for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2016-10-20

The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision rules. This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bounds on the precision of this algorithm relative to the length of rules. To illustrate proposed approach we study a problem of recognition of labels of points in the plain. This paper contains also results of experiments with modified decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository.

Greedy Algorithm for the Construction of Approximate Decision Rules for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

2016-01-01

The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision rules. This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bounds on the precision of this algorithm relative to the length of rules. To illustrate proposed approach we study a problem of recognition of labels of points in the plain. This paper contains also results of experiments with modified decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository.

Safety, health and environmental committee (JKSHE): Establishing chemical hazard management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shyen, A.K.S.; Noriah Mod Ali; Sangau, J.K.

2012-01-01

Most of the laboratories in Malaysian Nuclear Agency are using chemicals in their research activities. However, it is known that using of chemicals without proper knowledge especially on the material characteristics as well as safe handling procedure may cause great harm to the workers. Therefore, Safety, Health and Environmental Committee (JKSHE) sees the need to establish a good chemical hazard management to ensure that a safe and healthy workplace and environment is provided. One of the elements in chemical hazard management is to carry out Chemical Hazard Risk Assessment (CHRA). The assessment was done so that decision can be made on suitable control measures upon use of such chemicals, such as induction and training courses to be given to the workers and health surveillance activities that may be needed to protect the workers. For this, JKSHE has recommended to conduct CHRA for one of the laboratories at Secondary Standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL) namely Film Dosimeter Processing Room (dark room) as the initial effort towards a better chemical hazard management. This paper presents the case study where CHRA was conducted to identify the chemical hazards at the selected laboratory, the adequacy of existing control measures and finally the recommendation for more effective control measures. (author)

The potential role of life cycle assessment in regulation of chemicals in the European Union

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Frans Møller; Olsen, Stig Irving

2004-01-01

Scope and Background. This paper presents the preliminary results from an ongoing feasibility study, investigating potential application of elements from the life cycle assessment (LCA) framework in European chemicals' policy. Many policy areas affect manufacturing, marketing and use of chemicals...... dialogues with various stakeholders. Results and Discussion. LCAs are comparative and more holistic in view as compared to chemical risk assessments for regulatory purposes1. LCAs may therefore potentially improve the basis for decisions between alternatives in cases where a risk assessment calls for risk...

Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays

OpenAIRE

Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

1998-01-01

To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...

Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

OpenAIRE

Maite Sara Mashego

2015-01-01

Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

An Optimization Model For Strategy Decision Support to Select Kind of CPO’s Ship

Science.gov (United States)

Suaibah Nst, Siti; Nababan, Esther; Mawengkang, Herman

2018-01-01

The selection of marine transport for the distribution of crude palm oil (CPO) is one of strategy that can be considered in reducing cost of transport. The cost of CPO’s transport from one area to CPO’s factory located at the port of destination may affect the level of CPO’s prices and the number of demands. In order to maintain the availability of CPO a strategy is required to minimize the cost of transporting. In this study, the strategy used to select kind of charter ships as barge or chemical tanker. This study aims to determine an optimization model for strategy decision support in selecting kind of CPO’s ship by minimizing costs of transport. The select of ship was done randomly, so that two-stage stochastic programming model was used to select the kind of ship. Model can help decision makers to select either barge or chemical tanker to distribute CPO.

Chemical and biological treatment technologies for leather tannery chemicals and wastewaters: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Lofrano, Giusy; Meriç, Sureyya; Zengin, Gülsüm Emel; Orhon, Derin

2013-09-01

Although the leather tanning industry is known to be one of the leading economic sectors in many countries, there has been an increasing environmental concern regarding the release of various recalcitrant pollutants in tannery wastewater. It has been shown that biological processes are presently known as the most environmental friendly but inefficient for removal of recalcitrant organics and micro-pollutants in tannery wastewater. Hence emerging technologies such as advanced oxidation processes and membrane processes have been attempted as integrative to biological treatment for this sense. This paper, as the-state-of-the-art, attempts to revise the over world trends of treatment technologies and advances for pollution prevention from tannery chemicals and wastewater. It can be elucidated that according to less extent advances in wastewater minimization as well as in leather production technology and chemicals substitution, biological and chemical treatment processes have been progressively studied. However, there has not been a full scale application yet of those emerging technologies using advanced oxidation although some of them proved good achievements to remove xenobiotics present in tannery wastewater. It can be noted that advanced oxidation technologies integrated with biological processes will remain in the agenda of the decision makers and water sector to apply the best prevention solution for the future tanneries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Minimization of decision tree depth for multi-label decision tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2014-10-01

In this paper, we consider multi-label decision tables that have a set of decisions attached to each row. Our goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions for each row by using decision tree as our tool. Considering our target to minimize the depth of the decision tree, we devised various kinds of greedy algorithms as well as dynamic programming algorithm. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of depth of decision trees.

Minimization of decision tree depth for multi-label decision tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2014-01-01

In this paper, we consider multi-label decision tables that have a set of decisions attached to each row. Our goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions for each row by using decision tree as our tool. Considering our target to minimize the depth of the decision tree, we devised various kinds of greedy algorithms as well as dynamic programming algorithm. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of depth of decision trees.

The Role of Cumulative Risk Assessment in Decisions about Environmental Justice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ken Sexton

2010-11-01

Full Text Available There is strong presumptive evidence that people living in poverty and certain racial and ethnic groups bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk. Many have argued that conducting formal assessments of the health risk experienced by affected communities is both unnecessary and counterproductive—that instead of analyzing the situation our efforts should be devoted to fixing obvious problems and rectifying observable wrongs. We contend that formal assessment of cumulative health risks from combined effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors is a valuable tool to aid decision makers in choosing risk management options that are effective, efficient, and equitable. If used properly, cumulative risk assessment need not impair decision makers’ discretion, nor should it be used as an excuse for doing nothing in the face of evident harm. Good policy decisions require more than good intentions; they necessitate analysis of risk-related information along with careful consideration of economic issues, ethical and moral principles, legal precedents, political realities, cultural beliefs, societal values, and bureaucratic impediments. Cumulative risk assessment can provide a systematic and impartial means for informing policy decisions about environmental justice.

Decision aids for people facing health treatment or screening decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Stacey, Dawn; Légaré, France; Col, Nananda F; Bennett, Carol L; Barry, Michael J; Eden, Karen B; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Llewellyn-Thomas, Hilary; Lyddiatt, Anne; Thomson, Richard; Trevena, Lyndal; Wu, Julie H C

2014-01-28

Decision aids are intended to help people participate in decisions that involve weighing the benefits and harms of treatment options often with scientific uncertainty. To assess the effects of decision aids for people facing treatment or screening decisions. For this update, we searched from 2009 to June 2012 in MEDLINE; CENTRAL; EMBASE; PsycINFO; and grey literature. Cumulatively, we have searched each database since its start date including CINAHL (to September 2008). We included published randomized controlled trials of decision aids, which are interventions designed to support patients' decision making by making explicit the decision, providing information about treatment or screening options and their associated outcomes, compared to usual care and/or alternative interventions. We excluded studies of participants making hypothetical decisions. Two review authors independently screened citations for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. The primary outcomes, based on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS), were:A) 'choice made' attributes;B) 'decision-making process' attributes.Secondary outcomes were behavioral, health, and health-system effects. We pooled results using mean differences (MD) and relative risks (RR), applying a random-effects model. This update includes 33 new studies for a total of 115 studies involving 34,444 participants. For risk of bias, selective outcome reporting and blinding of participants and personnel were mostly rated as unclear due to inadequate reporting. Based on 7 items, 8 of 115 studies had high risk of bias for 1 or 2 items each.Of 115 included studies, 88 (76.5%) used at least one of the IPDAS effectiveness criteria: A) 'choice made' attributes criteria: knowledge scores (76 studies); accurate risk perceptions (25 studies); and informed value-based choice (20 studies); and B) 'decision-making process' attributes criteria: feeling informed (34 studies) and feeling clear about values (29

Decisions at hand: a decision support system on handhelds.

Science.gov (United States)

Zupan, B; Porenta, A; Vidmar, G; Aoki, N; Bratko, I; Beck, J R

2001-01-01

One of the applications of clinical information systems is decision support. Although the advantages of utilizing such aids have never been theoretically disputed, they have been rarely used in practice. The factor that probably often limits the utility of clinical decision support systems is the need for computing power at the very site of decision making--at the place where the patient is interviewed, in discussion rooms, etc. The paper reports on a possible solution to this problem. A decision-support shell LogReg is presented, which runs on a handheld computer. A general schema for handheld-based decision support is also proposed, where decision models are developed on personal computers/workstations, encoded in XML and then transferred to handhelds, where the models are used within a decision support shell. A use case where LogReg has been applied to clinical outcome prediction in crush injury is presented.

A rational approach to decision making in toxicology.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, B A; Sass, N L

1984-06-01

The application of the Kepner-Tregoe (C. H. Kepner and B. B. Tregoe, 1981, The New Rational Manager, Princeton Res. Press, Princeton, N. J.) problem solving technique to the evaluation and interpretation of toxicological information is described. Data from a chronic study provide an illustrative example. In this study an excess in the number of urinary bladder neoplasms was observed in male rats exposed to diets containing the test chemical. No similar effect was seen in treated female rats. Both male and female mice exposed to treatment also exhibited no effect. Whether treatment was the cause of the observed increase should be based on all the scientific and technical information that is relevant to this decision. The Kepner-Tregoe method of problem analysis captures this information in a framework that makes it easily understood. This is especially desirable if the judgments that are a vital part of regulatory decision making are to be adequately communicated.

Corporate Choice of Banks: Decision Factors, Decision Maker, and Decision Process – First Evidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ongena, S.; Tumer Alkan, G.; Vermeer, B.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we investigate how firms choose their banks. We focus on the role played by the decision factors, the decision maker and the decision process in determining firm-bank relationships. We have access to a unique survey that was run by a major bank in the Czech Republic. We find that

Rational decisions

CERN Document Server

Binmore, Ken

2008-01-01

It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,

Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pier Luigi Baldi

2006-06-01

Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.

'My kidneys, my choice, decision aid': supporting shared decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Fortnum, Debbie; Smolonogov, Tatiana; Walker, Rachael; Kairaitis, Luke; Pugh, Debbie

2015-06-01

For patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are progressing to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) a decision of whether to undertake dialysis or conservative care is a critical component of the patient journey. Shared decision making for complex decisions such as this could be enhanced by a decision aid, a practice which is well utilised in other disciplines but limited for nephrology. A multidisciplinary team in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) utilised current decision-making theory and best practice to develop the 'My Kidneys, My Choice', a decision aid for the treatment of kidney disease. A patient-centred, five-sectioned tool is now complete and freely available to all ANZ units to support the ESKD education and shared decision-making process. Distribution and education have occurred across ANZ and evaluation of the decision aid in practice is in the first phase. Development of a new tool such as an ESKD decision aid requires vision, multidisciplinary input and ongoing implementation resources. This tool is being integrated into ANZ, ESKD education practice and is promoting the philosophy of shared decision making. © 2014 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.

Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts' Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

2014-09-01

Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design.

Analyzing Decision Logs to Understand Decision Making in Serious Crime Investigations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dando, Coral J; Ormerod, Thomas C

2017-12-01

Objective To study decision making by detectives when investigating serious crime through the examination of decision logs to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection. Background Decision logs are used to record and justify decisions made during serious crime investigations. The complexity of investigative decision making is well documented, as are the errors associated with miscarriages of justice and inquests. The use of decision logs has not been the subject of an empirical investigation, yet they offer an important window into the nature of investigative decision making in dynamic, time-critical environments. Method A sample of decision logs from British police forces was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection by police detectives. Results Analyses revealed diversity in documentation of decisions that did not correlate with case type and identified significant limitations of the decision log approach to supporting investigative decision making. Differences emerged between experienced and less experienced officers' decision log records in exploration of alternative hypotheses, generation of hypotheses, and sources of evidential inquiry opened over phase of investigation. Conclusion The practical use of decision logs is highly constrained by their format and context of use. Despite this, decision log records suggest that experienced detectives display strategic decision making to avoid confirmation and satisficing, which affect less experienced detectives. Application Potential applications of this research include both training in case documentation and the development of new decision log media that encourage detectives, irrespective of experience, to generate multiple hypotheses and optimize the timely selection of evidence to test them.

Limits of detection and decision. Part 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voigtman, E.

2008-01-01

Probability density functions (PDFs) have been derived for a number of commonly used limit of detection definitions, including several variants of the Relative Standard Deviation of the Background-Background Equivalent Concentration (RSDB-BEC) method, for a simple linear chemical measurement system (CMS) having homoscedastic, Gaussian measurement noise and using ordinary least squares (OLS) processing. All of these detection limit definitions serve as both decision and detection limits, thereby implicitly resulting in 50% rates of Type 2 errors. It has been demonstrated that these are closely related to Currie decision limits, if the coverage factor, k, is properly defined, and that all of the PDFs are scaled reciprocals of noncentral t variates. All of the detection limits have well-defined upper and lower limits, thereby resulting in finite moments and confidence limits, and the problem of estimating the noncentrality parameter has been addressed. As in Parts 1-3, extensive Monte Carlo simulations were performed and all the simulation results were found to be in excellent agreement with the derived theoretical expressions. Specific recommendations for harmonization of detection limit methodology have also been made

Optimization of decision rule complexity for decision tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2013-10-01

We describe new heuristics to construct decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions from the point of view of length and coverage which are enough good. We use statistical test to find leaders among the heuristics. After that, we compare our results with optimal result obtained by dynamic programming algorithms. The average percentage of relative difference between length (coverage) of constructed and optimal rules is at most 6.89% (15.89%, respectively) for leaders which seems to be a promising result. © 2013 IEEE.

Project Decision Chain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rolstadås, Asbjørn; Pinto, Jeffrey K.; Falster, Peter

2015-01-01

To add value to project performance and help obtain project success, a new framework for decision making in projects is defined. It introduces the project decision chain inspired by the supply chain thinking in the manufacturing sector and uses three types of decisions: authorization, selection......, and plan decision. A primitive decision element is defined where all the three decision types can be accommodated. Each task in the primitive element can in itself contain subtasks that in turn will comprise new primitive elements. The primitive elements are nested together in a project decision chain....

Construction of α-decision trees for tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

2011-01-01

The paper is devoted to the study of greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision trees (α-decision trees). This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bound on the number of algorithm steps, and bound on the algorithm accuracy relative to the depth of decision trees. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

The Self in Decision Making and Decision Implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.

Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Bernknopf, R.L.

2005-01-01

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the

Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

2007-01-01

Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

Binary Classification of a Large Collection of Environmental Chemicals from Estrogen Receptor Assays by Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship and Machine Learning Methods

Science.gov (United States)

ABSTRACT: There are thousands of environmental chemicals subject to regulatory decisions for endocrine disrupting potential. A promising approach to manage this large universe of untested chemicals is to use a prioritization filter that combines in vitro assays with in silico QSA...

77 FR 52048 - Announcement of Test Providing Centralized Decision-Making Authority for Four CBP Centers of...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-28

... broad decision-making authority: the Electronics CEE; Pharmaceuticals, Health & Chemicals CEE; the Automotive & Aerospace CEE; and the Petroleum, Natural Gas & Minerals CEE. This notice invites public comment...) established two Centers of Excellence and Expertise (CEEs): The Electronics CEE in Long Beach, California and...

Collective animal decisions: preference conflict and decision accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Conradt, Larissa

2013-12-06

Social animals frequently share decisions that involve uncertainty and conflict. It has been suggested that conflict can enhance decision accuracy. In order to judge the practical relevance of such a suggestion, it is necessary to explore how general such findings are. Using a model, I examine whether conflicts between animals in a group with respect to preferences for avoiding false positives versus avoiding false negatives could, in principle, enhance the accuracy of collective decisions. I found that decision accuracy nearly always peaked when there was maximum conflict in groups in which individuals had different preferences. However, groups with no preferences were usually even more accurate. Furthermore, a relatively slight skew towards more animals with a preference for avoiding false negatives decreased the rate of expected false negatives versus false positives considerably (and vice versa), while resulting in only a small loss of decision accuracy. I conclude that in ecological situations in which decision accuracy is crucial for fitness and survival, animals cannot 'afford' preferences with respect to avoiding false positives versus false negatives. When decision accuracy is less crucial, animals might have such preferences. A slight skew in the number of animals with different preferences will result in the group avoiding that type of error more that the majority of group members prefers to avoid. The model also indicated that knowing the average success rate ('base rate') of a decision option can be very misleading, and that animals should ignore such base rates unless further information is available.

Minimizing size of decision trees for multi-label decision tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2014-09-29

We used decision tree as a model to discover the knowledge from multi-label decision tables where each row has a set of decisions attached to it and our goal is to find out one arbitrary decision from the set of decisions attached to a row. The size of the decision tree can be small as well as very large. We study here different greedy as well as dynamic programming algorithms to minimize the size of the decision trees. When we compare the optimal result from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produce results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of number of nodes (at most 18.92% difference), number of nonterminal nodes (at most 20.76% difference), and number of terminal nodes (at most 18.71% difference).

Minimizing size of decision trees for multi-label decision tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2014-01-01

We used decision tree as a model to discover the knowledge from multi-label decision tables where each row has a set of decisions attached to it and our goal is to find out one arbitrary decision from the set of decisions attached to a row. The size of the decision tree can be small as well as very large. We study here different greedy as well as dynamic programming algorithms to minimize the size of the decision trees. When we compare the optimal result from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produce results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of number of nodes (at most 18.92% difference), number of nonterminal nodes (at most 20.76% difference), and number of terminal nodes (at most 18.71% difference).

The use of mental models in chemical risk protection: developing a generic workplace methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Patrick; Niewöhmer, Jörg; Pidgeon, Nick; Gerrard, Simon; Fischhoff, Baruch; Riley, Donna

2003-04-01

We adopted a comparative approach to evaluate and extend a generic methodology to analyze the different sets of beliefs held about chemical hazards in the workplace. Our study mapped existing knowledge structures about the risks associated with the use of perchloroethylene and rosin-based solder flux in differing workplaces. "Influence diagrams" were used to represent beliefs held by chemical experts; "user models" were developed from data elicited from open-ended interviews with the workplace users of the chemicals. The juxtaposition of expert and user understandings of chemical risks enabled us to identify knowledge gaps and misunderstandings and to reinforce appropriate sets of safety beliefs and behavior relevant to chemical risk communications. By designing safety information to be more relevant to the workplace context of users, we believe that employers and employees may gain improved knowledge about chemical hazards in the workplace, such that better chemical risk management, self-protection, and informed decision making develop over time.

Decisions, decisions: analysis of age, cohort, and time of testing on framing of risky decision options.

Science.gov (United States)

Mayhorn, Christopher B; Fisk, Arthur D; Whittle, Justin D

2002-01-01

Decision making in uncertain environments is a daily challenge faced by adults of all ages. Framing decision options as either gains or losses is a common method of altering decision-making behavior. In the experiment reported here, benchmark decision-making data collected in the 1970s by Tversky and Kahneman (1981, 1988) were compared with data collected from current samples of young and older adults to determine whether behavior was consistent across time. Although differences did emerge between the benchmark and the present samples, the effect of framing on decision behavior was relatively stable. The present findings suggest that adults of all ages are susceptible to framing effects. Results also indicated that apparent age differences might be better explained by an analysis of cohort and time-of-testing effects. Actual or potential applications of this research include an understanding of how framing might influence the decision-making behavior of people of all ages in a number of applied contexts, such as product warning interactions and medical decision scenarios.

Harmonization of risk management approaches: radiation and chemical exposures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Srinivasan, P. [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Radiation Safety Systems Div., Mumbai (India)

2006-07-01

Assessment of occupational and public risk from the environmental pollutants like chemicals, radiation, etc demands that the effects be considered not only from each individual pollutant, but from the combination of all the pollutants. An integrated risk assessment system needs to be in place to have an overall risk perspective for the benefit of policy makers and decision takers to try to achieve risk reduction in totality. The basis for risk-based radiation dose limits is derived from epidemiological studies, which provide a rich source of data largely unavailable to chemical risk assessors. In addition, use of the principle of optimization as expressed in the ALARA concept has resulted in a safety culture, which is much more than just complying with stipulated limits. The conservative hypothesis of no-threshold dose-effect relation (ICRP) is universally assumed. The end-points and the severity of different classes of pollutants and even different pollutants in a same class vary over a wide range. Hence, it is difficult to arrive at a quantitative value for the net detriment that weighs the various types of end-points and various classes of pollutants. Once the risk due to other pollutants is quantified by some acceptable methodology, it can be expressed in terms of the Risk Equivalent Radiation Dose (R.E.R.D.) for easy comparison with options involving radiation exposure. This paper is an effort to use to quantify and present the risk due to exposure to chemicals and radiation in a common scale for the purpose of easy comparison to facilitate decision taking. (authors)

Harmonization of risk management approaches: radiation and chemical exposures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srinivasan, P.

2006-01-01

Assessment of occupational and public risk from the environmental pollutants like chemicals, radiation, etc demands that the effects be considered not only from each individual pollutant, but from the combination of all the pollutants. An integrated risk assessment system needs to be in place to have an overall risk perspective for the benefit of policy makers and decision takers to try to achieve risk reduction in totality. The basis for risk-based radiation dose limits is derived from epidemiological studies, which provide a rich source of data largely unavailable to chemical risk assessors. In addition, use of the principle of optimization as expressed in the ALARA concept has resulted in a safety culture, which is much more than just complying with stipulated limits. The conservative hypothesis of no-threshold dose-effect relation (ICRP) is universally assumed. The end-points and the severity of different classes of pollutants and even different pollutants in a same class vary over a wide range. Hence, it is difficult to arrive at a quantitative value for the net detriment that weighs the various types of end-points and various classes of pollutants. Once the risk due to other pollutants is quantified by some acceptable methodology, it can be expressed in terms of the Risk Equivalent Radiation Dose (R.E.R.D.) for easy comparison with options involving radiation exposure. This paper is an effort to use to quantify and present the risk due to exposure to chemicals and radiation in a common scale for the purpose of easy comparison to facilitate decision taking. (authors)

Evaluation of a prototype decision support system for selecting trench cap designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paige, G.B.; Stone, J.J.; Lane, L.J.

1996-01-01

A computer-based prototype decision support system (PDSS) to assist the risk manager in selecting an appropriate trench cap design for waste disposal sites is evaluated. The selection of the open-quotes bestclose quotes design among feasible alternatives requires consideration of multiple and often conflicting objectives. The methodology used in the selection process consists of. selecting and parameterizing decision variables, using data, simulation models, or expert opinion; selecting feasible trench cap design alternatives; ordering the decision variables and ranking the design alternatives. The simulation models incorporated in the PDSS are the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model which is used to simulate the trench cap water balance and the Chemicals, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems (CREAMS) erosion component that is used to simulate trench cap erosion. The decision model is based on multi-objective decision theory and uses a unique approach to order the decision variables and rank the design alternatives. The PDSS is evaluated using the Hill Air Force Base landfill cover demonstration project. The water balance and surface erosion of four alternative landfill cover designs were monitored for a 4-yr period. Two of the cover designs were used to calibrate and test the simulation models. The results of the PDSS, using both data from all four designs and long-term simulations from two of the designs, illustrate the relative advantages of each of the cover designs and which cover is the open-quotes bestclose quotes alternative for a given set of criteria and a particular importance order of those decision criteria. 22 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs

Regulatory Decisions on Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals Should be Based on the Principles of Endocrinology

Science.gov (United States)

Vandenberg, Laura N.; Colborn, Theo; Hayes, Tyrone B.; Heindel, Jerrold J.; Jacobs, David R.; Lee, Duk-Hee; Myers, John Peterson; Shioda, Toshi; Soto, Ana M.; vom Saal, Frederick S.; Welshons, Wade V.; Zoeller, R. Thomas

2013-01-01

For years, scientists from various disciplines have studied the effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) on the health and wellbeing of humans and wildlife. Some studies have specifically focused on the effects of low doses, i.e. those in the range that are thought to be safe for humans and/or animals. Others have focused on the existence of non-monotonic dose-response curves. These concepts challenge the way that chemical risk assessment is performed for EDCs. Continued discussions have clarified exactly what controversies and challenges remain. We address several of these issues, including why the study and regulation of EDCs should incorporate endocrine principles; what level of consensus there is for low dose effects; challenges to our understanding of non-monotonicity; and whether EDCs have been demonstrated to produce adverse effects. This discussion should result in a better understanding of these issues, and allow for additional dialogue on their impact on risk assessment. PMID:23411111

Recent advances to address European Union Health Security from cross border chemical health threats.

Science.gov (United States)

Duarte-Davidson, R; Orford, R; Wyke, S; Griffiths, M; Amlôt, R; Chilcott, R

2014-11-01

The European Union (EU) Decision (1082/2013/EU) on serious cross border threats to health was adopted by the European Parliament in November 2013, in recognition of the need to strengthen the capacity of Member States to coordinate the public health response to cross border threats, whether from biological, chemical, environmental events or events which have an unknown origin. Although mechanisms have been in place for years for reporting cross border health threats from communicable diseases, this has not been the case for incidents involving chemicals and/or environmental events. A variety of collaborative EU projects have been funded over the past 10 years through the Health Programme to address gaps in knowledge on health security and to improve resilience and response to major incidents involving chemicals. This paper looks at the EU Health Programme that underpins recent research activities to address gaps in resilience, planning, responding to and recovering from a cross border chemical incident. It also looks at how the outputs from the research programme will contribute to improving public health management of transnational incidents that have the potential to overwhelm national capabilities, putting this into context with the new requirements as the Decision on serious cross border threats to health as well as highlighting areas for future development. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DECISIONS, METHODS AND TECHNIQUES RELATED TO DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (DSS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boghean Florin

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Generalised uncertainty, a phenomenon that today’s managers are facing as part of their professional experience, makes it impossible to anticipate the way the business environment will evolve or what will be the consequences of the decisions they plan to implement. Any decision making process within the company entails the simultaneous presence of a number of economic, technical, juridical, human and managerial variables. The development and the approval of a decision is the result of decision making activities developed by the decision maker and sometimes by a decision support team or/and a decision support system (DSS. These aspects related to specific applications of decision support systems in risk management will be approached in this research paper. Decisions in general and management decisions in particular are associated with numerous risks, due to their complexity and increasing contextual orientation. In each business entity, there are concerns with the implementation of risk management in order to improve the likelihood of meeting objectives, the trust of the parties involved, increase the operational safety and security as well as the protection of the environment, minimise losses, improve organisational resilience in order to diminish the negative impact on the organisation and provide a solid foundation for decision making. Since any business entity is considered to be a wealth generator, the analysis of their performance should not be restricted to financial efficiency alone, but will also encompass their economic efficiency as well. The type of research developed in this paper entails different dimensions: conceptual, methodological, as well as empirical testing. Subsequently, the conducted research entails a methodological side, since the conducted activities have resulted in the presentation of a simulation model that is useful in decision making processes on the capital market. The research conducted in the present paper

Computational Methods to Assess the Production Potential of Bio-Based Chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Campodonico, Miguel A; Sukumara, Sumesh; Feist, Adam M; Herrgård, Markus J

2018-01-01

Elevated costs and long implementation times of bio-based processes for producing chemicals represent a bottleneck for moving to a bio-based economy. A prospective analysis able to elucidate economically and technically feasible product targets at early research phases is mandatory. Computational tools can be implemented to explore the biological and technical spectrum of feasibility, while constraining the operational space for desired chemicals. In this chapter, two different computational tools for assessing potential for bio-based production of chemicals from different perspectives are described in detail. The first tool is GEM-Path: an algorithm to compute all structurally possible pathways from one target molecule to the host metabolome. The second tool is a framework for Modeling Sustainable Industrial Chemicals production (MuSIC), which integrates modeling approaches for cellular metabolism, bioreactor design, upstream/downstream processes, and economic impact assessment. Integrating GEM-Path and MuSIC will play a vital role in supporting early phases of research efforts and guide the policy makers with decisions, as we progress toward planning a sustainable chemical industry.

Time to decision: the drivers of innovation adoption decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Ciganek, Andrew Paul; (Dave) Haseman, William; Ramamurthy, K.

2014-03-01

Organisations desire timeliness. Timeliness facilitates a better responsiveness to changes in an organisation's external environment to either attain or maintain competitiveness. Despite its importance, decision timeliness has not been explicitly examined. Decision timeliness is measured in this study as the time taken to commit to a decision. The research objective is to identify the drivers of decision timeliness in the context of adopting service-oriented architecture (SOA), an innovation for enterprise computing. A research model rooted in the technology-organisation-environment (TOE) framework is proposed and tested with data collected in a large-scale study. The research variables have been examined before in the context of adoption, but their applicability to the timeliness of innovation decision-making has not received much attention and their salience is unclear. The results support multiple hypothesised relationships, including the finding that a risk-oriented organisational culture as well as normative and coercive pressures accelerates decision timeliness. Top management support as well as the traditional innovation attributes (compatibility, relative advantage and complexity/ease-of-use) were not found to be significant when examining their influence on decision timeliness, which appears inconsistent with generally accepted knowledge and deserves further examination.

Emergency preparedness among people living near US army chemical weapons sites after September 11, 2001.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Bryan L; Magsumbol, Melina S

2007-09-01

We examined trust in the army and perceptions of emergency preparedness among residents living near the Anniston, Ala, and Richmond, Ky, US Army chemical weapons stockpile sites shortly after September 11, 2001. Residents (n = 655) living near the 2 sites who participated in a cross-sectional population were relatively unprepared in the event of a chemical emergency. The events of September 11 gave rise to concerns regarding the security of stored chemical weapons and the sites' vulnerability to terrorist attacks. Although residents expressed trust in the army to manage chemical weapons safely, only a few expressed a desire to actively participate in site decisions. Compliance with procedures during emergencies could be seriously limited, putting residents in these sites at higher levels of risk of exposure to chemical hazards than nonresidents.

Uniroyal Chemical`s remediation project meets or exceeds expectations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anon,

1997-11-01

Recent remedial actions taken by Uniroyal Chemical Ltd at their Elmira, Ontario, plant have been considered. The company has been manufacturing a wide range of organic chemicals at this plant for use in agriculture and in the plastics and rubber industries since 1942. Historically, wastes were disposed of on-site, which while common practice at the time, caused soil and water contamination by N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), volatile organic compounds such as benzene, toluene, and chlorobenzene, aniline, mercaptobenzothiazole and basic compounds such as ammonia. The local hydrogeology is fairly complex and consists of several aquifers and aquitards of which the Upper Aquifer (UA) and the Municipal Aquifer (MA) have been the primary concern. They have supplied all or part of the drinking water for the Kitchener-Waterloo area and the town of Elmira. After an extensive feasibility study, the decision was made to install shallow extension wells, and a system to treat the groundwater to acceptable criteria to discharge the treated water to the river system. Development of the system, which besides ten extraction wells includes a tertiary treatment process for UV oxidation, was described. The system has been in operation since January 1997. It affords 95 to 98 per cent of containment efficiency, 99 per cent ammonia removal, and 99.97 per cent of NDMA removal. Effluent requirements have been consistently met for all 18 primary contaminants, and no groundwater is being discharged into the river system.

Symposium on risk assessment and adoption of decisions: VALDOR-2001

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kovalevich, O.M.

2001-01-01

The symposium was held in Stockholm (Sweden), 9 - 15 June 2001. Reports involved following fundamental problems: prospects for radioactive waste management, investigations into risk control, risk control and regulations, bases for risk assessment, the role of mass media and participation of the community in adoption of complex decisions. Much attention at the symposium is given to radioactive wastes, radiation sources, risk of chemical plants and risk assessment in biotechnology. Practically all reports were devoted to relations with the community [ru

Business making decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

2011-06-01

Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

Decision Trajectories in Dementia Care Networks: Decisions and Related Key Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Groen-van de Ven, Leontine; Smits, Carolien; Oldewarris, Karen; Span, Marijke; Jukema, Jan; Eefsting, Jan; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra

2017-10-01

This prospective multiperspective study provides insight into the decision trajectories of people with dementia by studying the decisions made and related key events. This study includes three waves of interviews, conducted between July 2010 and July 2012, with 113 purposefully selected respondents (people with beginning to advanced stages of dementia and their informal and professional caregivers) completed in 12 months (285 interviews). Our multilayered qualitative analysis consists of content analysis, timeline methods, and constant comparison. Four decision themes emerged-managing daily life, arranging support, community living, and preparing for the future. Eight key events delineate the decision trajectories of people with dementia. Decisions and key events differ between people with dementia living alone and living with a caregiver. Our study clarifies that decisions relate not only to the disease but to living with the dementia. Individual differences in decision content and sequence may effect shared decision-making and advance care planning.

Medical decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.

2016-01-01

This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,

Mapping student thinking in chemical synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

Weinrich, Melissa

In order to support the development of learning progressions about central ideas and practices in different disciplines, we need detailed analyses of the implicit assumptions and reasoning strategies that guide students' thinking at different educational levels. In the particular case of chemistry, understanding how new chemical substances are produced (chemical synthesis) is of critical importance. Thus, we have used a qualitative research approach based on individual interviews with first semester general chemistry students (n = 16), second semester organic chemistry students (n = 15), advanced undergraduates (n = 9), first year graduate students (n = 15), and PhD candidates (n = 16) to better characterize diverse students' underlying cognitive elements (conceptual modes and modes of reasoning) when thinking about chemical synthesis. Our results reveal a great variability in the cognitive resources and strategies used by students with different levels of training in the discipline to make decisions, particularly at intermediate levels of expertise. The specific nature of the task had a strong influence on the conceptual sophistication and mode of reasoning that students exhibited. Nevertheless, our data analysis has allowed us to identify common modes of reasoning and assumptions that seem to guide students' thinking at different educational levels. Our results should facilitate the development of learning progressions that help improve chemistry instruction, curriculum, and assessment.

Changing Times, Complex Decisions: Presidential Values and Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.

2016-01-01

Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…

Decision-making styles and depressive symptomatology: Development of the Decision Styles Questionnaire

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Leykin

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Difficulty making decisions is one of the symptoms of the depressive illness. Previous research suggests that depressed individuals may make decisions that differ from those made by the non-depressed, and that they use sub-optimal decision-making strategies. For this study we constructed an instrument that aims to measure a variety of decision-making styles as well as the respondent's view of him or herself as a decision-maker (decisional self-esteem. These styles and estimates of decisional self-esteem were then related to depressive symptoms. Depressive symptomatology correlated negatively with perception of self as a decision-maker. Those with higher depression severity scores characterized themselves as being more anxious about decisions, and more likely to procrastinate. They also reported using fewer productive decision-making strategies, depending more on other people for help with decisions, and relying less on their own intuitions when making decisions. Further research is needed to determine the extent to which these decision-making styles are antecedents to depressive symptomatology or are instead products of, or aspects of, the phenomenology associated with depression.

Operational readiness decisions at nuclear power plants. Which factors influence the decisions?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kecklund, Lena; Petterson, Sara

2007-11-01

The purpose of this project has been to propose a model for how operational readiness decisions are made and to identify important factors influencing these decisions. The project has also studied the support from the management system for decision making, and made a comparison to how decisions are made in practice. This is mainly an explorative study, but it also deals with relevant research and theories about decision making. The project consists of several parts. The first part is composed of descriptions of important notations and terms, and a summary of relevant research about decision making and its relation to the management system. The project proposes a model for the decision making process. The second part consists of analyses of reports from SKI about operational readiness decisions. The last part is a case study at a nuclear power plant. The case study describes the support from work method theories at the nuclear power plant to the decision maker. Decision makers with different roles in the safety management system were interviewed to give a description of the decision making process and of factors influencing the decisions made in practice. The case study also consists of an analysis of decisions in some real events at the nuclear power plant, as well as of making interviews in connection with these. To sum up, this report presents a model for the decision process and describes the work method theories that support the different parts in the process, how the different parts are applied in practice and circumstances that influence the decision process. The results of the project give an understanding for decision making in operational readiness decisions and the factors that influence the decision. The results are meant to be used as a basis for further studies in other nuclear power plants. The results indicate that the decision process is facilitated if there are clear criteria and work methods, if the work methods are well established and if the

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

OpenAIRE

Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

2010-01-01

Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

Pieces of the Puzzle: Tracking the Chemical Component of the ...

Science.gov (United States)

This presentation provides an overview of the risk assessment conducted at the U.S. EPA, as well as some research examples related to the exposome concept. This presentation also provides the recommendation of using two organizational and predictive frameworks for tracking chemical components in the exposome. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P

2015-12-15

A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions.

Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

2015-01-01

A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions. PMID:26666393

Using a group decision support system to make investment prioritisation decisions

OpenAIRE

Read, Martin; Gear, Tony; Minkes, Leonard; Irving, Ann

2013-01-01

This paper is concerned with how decision making groups involved in making investment prioritisation decisions involving funding of technology and science projects may be supported by a group decision support system (GDSS). While interested in decision outcomes, the primary focus of this paper is the role of a group support system as an aid to developing shared understanding within a group. The paper develops the conceptual framework of decision-making, communication and group support, and de...

Customer Decision Support Systems: Resources for Student Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cara Okleshen Peters, Ph.D.

2005-07-01

Full Text Available This paper highlights the potential of customer decision support systems (CDSS to assist students in education-related decision making. Faculty can use these resources to more effectively advise students on various elements of college life, while students can employ them to more actively participate in their own learning and improve their academic experience. This conceptual paper summarizes consumer decision support systems (CDSS concepts and presents exemplar websites students could utilize to support their education-related decision making. Finally, the authors discuss the potential benefits and drawbacks such resources engender from a student perspective and conclude with directions for future research.

Scientific and technical conference. Problems and horizons of development of chemical and radiochemical control in nuclear energetics. Collection of summaries of reports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

During scientific and technical conference on problems of development of chemical and radiochemical control in nuclear energetics following themes were considered: the problems of methodological and instrumental assurance of chemical and radiochemical control at working nuclear power plants and nuclear energetic units; modern conceptions of automation systems construction of chemical and radiochemical control on the basis of intellectual measuring channels; the ways of decision of generally system problems of organization and management of chemical and radiochemical control using computed technologies; the problems of certification of chemical and radiochemical methods of measuring in nuclear energetics [ru

Dynamics and Control of Chemical Reactors-Selectively Surveyed

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, S. B.; Jensen, N.

1989-01-01

The chemical reactor or bioreactor is physically at a central position in a process, and often with a decisive role on the overall technical and economical performance. Even though application of feedback control on reactors is gaining momentum and on-line optimization has been implemented....... For bioreactors the theory and practice of reactor design, dynamics and control have to be adapted to the peculiarities of the biological catalysts. Enzymes, the protein catalysts, are the simplest ones, which have many common features with chemical catalysts. The living cells are much more complex, these growing...... in industry, many reactor control problems are still left unsolved or only partly solved using open loop strategies where disturbance rejection and model inaccuracies have to be handled through manual reactor control and feedback control of raw material preprocessing and product purification operations...

Improved learning in U.S. history and decision competence with decision-focused curriculum.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Jacobson

Full Text Available Decision making is rarely taught in high school, even though improved decision skills could benefit young people facing life-shaping decisions. While decision competence has been shown to correlate with better life outcomes, few interventions designed to improve decision skills have been evaluated with rigorous quantitative measures. A randomized study showed that integrating decision making into U.S. history instruction improved students' history knowledge and decision-making competence, compared to traditional history instruction. Thus, integrating decision training enhanced academic performance and improved an important, general life skill associated with improved life outcomes.

Markov decision processes: a tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J; Roberts, Mark S

2010-01-01

We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.

Decision-making capacity should not be decisive in emergencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hubbeling, Dieneke

2014-05-01

Examples of patients with anorexia nervosa, depression or borderline personality disorder who have decision-making capacity as currently operationalized, but refuse treatment, are discussed. It appears counterintuitive to respect their treatment refusal because their wish seems to be fuelled by their illness and the consequences of their refusal of treatment are severe. Some proposed solutions have focused on broadening the criteria for decision-making capacity, either in general or for specific patient groups, but these adjustments might discriminate against particular groups of patients and render the process less transparent. Other solutions focus on preferences expressed when patients are not ill, but this information is often not available. The reason for such difficulties with assessing decision-making capacity is that the underlying psychological processes of normal decision-making are not well known and one cannot differentiate between unwise decisions caused by an illness or other factors. The proposed alternative, set out in this paper, is to allow compulsory treatment of patients with decision-making capacity in cases of an emergency, if the refusal is potentially life threatening, but only for a time-limited period. The argument is also made for investigating hindsight agreement, in particular after compulsory measures.

[Decision making in cariology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

2003-01-01

By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

Evaluating psychodiagnostic decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Witteman, Cilia L M; Harries, Clare; Bekker, Hilary L; Van Aarle, Edward J M

2007-02-01

Several frameworks can be used to evaluate decision making. These may relate to different aspects of the decision-making process, or concern the decision outcome. Evaluations of psychodiagnostic decisions have shown diagnosticians to be poor decision makers. In this essay we argue that this finding results from the evaluation of only one part of the diagnostic process. We put forward that evaluations are typically carried out by comparing clinicians' behaviour to one of several normative models, for example hypothetico-deductive reasoning. These models make strong assumptions about human reasoning capabilities, which make it almost impossible for people to measure up to them. The subsequent two parts of the psychodiagnostic process (causal explanation and treatment decisions), are typically not included in these evaluation studies. Treatment decisions are evaluated in effectiveness studies; that is, they are evaluated in terms of their outcomes, not in terms of the diagnosticians' decision processes. Psychodiagnosticians' causal explanation has hardly ever been the subject of evaluation. We argue that in order to achieve clinical excellence, this part of the psychodiagnostic process should also be well understood. In this essay we first describe evaluation of psychodiagnostic decision making. We then propose a framework to describe causal explanation, that is, a situation assessment in terms of a causal schema or a story or script. We identify and discuss the tools available for evaluating this part of the psychodiagnostic process.

Decision making algorithm of the rehabilitation of agricultural lands contaminated with heavy natural radionuclides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khomutyinyin, Yu.V.; Yivanov, Yu.O.; Kirichenko, V.K.

2013-01-01

Problem of rehabilitation of agricultural land contaminated with heavy natural radionuclides ( 210 Pb, 210 Po, 226 Ra, 232 Th, 238 U) was considered. Algorithm of decision making support on advisability of rehabilitation of mentioned land was suggested. Proposed algorithm was tested on the base of agricultural farmlands located in the affected zone of Pridneprovsky Chemicals Plant and its tailing dumps

Three approaches to deal with inconsistent decision tables - Comparison of decision tree complexity

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail

2013-01-01

In inconsistent decision tables, there are groups of rows with equal values of conditional attributes and different decisions (values of the decision attribute). We study three approaches to deal with such tables. Instead of a group of equal rows, we consider one row given by values of conditional attributes and we attach to this row: (i) the set of all decisions for rows from the group (many-valued decision approach); (ii) the most common decision for rows from the group (most common decision approach); and (iii) the unique code of the set of all decisions for rows from the group (generalized decision approach). We present experimental results and compare the depth, average depth and number of nodes of decision trees constructed by a greedy algorithm in the framework of each of the three approaches. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

Implementing a Decision-Aware System for Loan Contracting Decision Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Razvan PETRUSEL

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The paper introduces our work related to the design and implementation of a decision-aware system focused on the loan contracting decision process. A decision-aware system is a software that enables the user to make a decision in a simulated environment and logs all the actions of the decision maker while interacting with the software. By using a mining algorithm on the logs, it creates a model of the decision process and presents it to the user. The main design issue introduced in the paper is the possibility to log the mental actions of the user. The main implementation issues are: user activity logging programming and technologies used. The first section of the paper introduces the state-of-the-art research in process mining and the framework of our research; the second section argues the design of the system; the third section introduces the actual implementation and the fourth section shows a running example.

'Misclassification error' greedy heuristic to construct decision trees for inconsistent decision tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2014-01-01

A greedy algorithm has been presented in this paper to construct decision trees for three different approaches (many-valued decision, most common decision, and generalized decision) in order to handle the inconsistency of multiple decisions in a decision table. In this algorithm, a greedy heuristic ‘misclassification error’ is used which performs faster, and for some cost function, results are better than ‘number of boundary subtables’ heuristic in literature. Therefore, it can be used in the case of larger data sets and does not require huge amount of memory. Experimental results of depth, average depth and number of nodes of decision trees constructed by this algorithm are compared in the framework of each of the three approaches.

Decision Dissonance: Evaluating an Approach to Measuring the Quality of Surgical Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, Floyd J.; Gallagher, Patricia M.; Drake, Keith M.; Sepucha, Karen R.

2013-01-01

Background Good decision making has been increasingly cited as a core component of good medical care, and shared decision making is one means of achieving high decision quality. If it is to be a standard, good measures and protocols are needed for assessing the quality of decisions. Consistency with patient goals and concerns is one defining characteristic of a good decision. A new method for evaluating decision quality for major surgical decisions was examined, and a methodology for collecting the needed data was developed. Methods For a national probability sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries who had a coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), a lumpectomy or a mastectomy for breast cancer, or surgery for prostate cancer during the last half of 2008, a mail survey of selected patients was carried out about one year after the procedures. Patients’ goals and concerns, knowledge, key aspects of interactions with clinicians, and feelings about the decisions were assessed. A Decision Dissonance Score was created that measured the extent to which patient ratings of goals ran counter to the treatment received. The construct and predictive validity of the Decision Dissonance Score was then assessed. Results When data were averaged across all four procedures, patients with more knowledge and those who reported more involvement reported significantly lower Decision Dissonance Scores. Patients with lower Decision Dissonance Scores also reported more confidence in their decisions and feeling more positively about how the treatment turned out, and they were more likely to say that they would make the same decision again. Conclusions Surveying discharged surgery patients is a feasible way to evaluate decision making, and Decision Dissonance appears to be a promising approach to validly measuring decision quality. PMID:23516764

Shared decision making

Science.gov (United States)

... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment Using Near-Field Human Exposure Modeling and High-Throughput Tools for Chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Csiszar, Susan A; Meyer, David E; Dionisio, Kathie L; Egeghy, Peter; Isaacs, Kristin K; Price, Paul S; Scanlon, Kelly A; Tan, Yu-Mei; Thomas, Kent; Vallero, Daniel; Bare, Jane C

2016-11-01

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products.

Decision Making and Cancer

OpenAIRE

Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.

2015-01-01

We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...

Decision sidestepping: How the motivation for closure prompts individuals to bypass decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Ashley S; Clarkson, Joshua J; Kardes, Frank R

2016-07-01

We all too often have to make decisions-from the mundane (e.g., what to eat for breakfast) to the complex (e.g., what to buy a loved one)-and yet there exists a multitude of strategies that allows us to make a decision. This work focuses on a subset of decision strategies that allows individuals to make decisions by bypassing the decision-making process-a phenomenon we term decision sidestepping. Critical to the present manuscript, however, we contend that decision sidestepping stems from the motivation to achieve closure. We link this proposition back to the fundamental nature of closure and how those seeking closure are highly bothered by decision making. As such, we argue that the motivation to achieve closure prompts a reliance on sidestepping strategies (e.g., default bias, choice delegation, status quo bias, inaction inertia, option fixation) to reduce the bothersome nature of decision making. In support of this framework, five experiments demonstrate that (a) those seeking closure are more likely to engage in decision sidestepping, (b) the effect of closure on sidestepping stems from the bothersome nature of decision making, and (c) the reliance on sidestepping results in downstream consequences for subsequent choice. Taken together, these findings offer unique insight into the cognitive motivations stimulating a reliance on decision sidestepping and thus a novel framework by which to understand how individuals make decisions while bypassing the decision-making process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Dissociation in decision bias mechanism between probabilistic information and previous decision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoshiyuki eKaneko

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Target detection performance is known to be influenced by events in the previous trials. It has not been clear, however, whether this bias effect is due to the previous sensory stimulus, motor response, or decision. Also it remains open whether or not the previous trial effect emerges via the same mechanism as the effect of knowledge about the target probability. In the present study, we asked normal human subjects to make a decision about the presence or absence of a visual target. We presented a pre-cue indicating the target probability before the stimulus, and also a decision-response mapping cue after the stimulus so as to tease apart the effect of decision from that of motor response. We found that the target detection performance was significantly affected by the probability cue in the current trial and also by the decision in the previous trial. While the information about the target probability modulated the decision criteria, the previous decision modulated the sensitivity to target-relevant sensory signals (d-prime. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we also found that activation in the left intraparietal sulcus was decreased when the probability cue indicated a high probability of the target. By contrast, activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus was increased when the subjects made a target-present decision in the previous trial, but this change was observed specifically when the target was present in the current trial. Activation in these regions was associated with individual-difference in the decision computation parameters. We argue that the previous decision biases the target detection performance by modulating the processing of target-selective information, and this mechanism is distinct from modulation of decision criteria due to expectation of a target.

Dissociation in decision bias mechanism between probabilistic information and previous decision

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneko, Yoshiyuki; Sakai, Katsuyuki

2015-01-01

Target detection performance is known to be influenced by events in the previous trials. It has not been clear, however, whether this bias effect is due to the previous sensory stimulus, motor response, or decision. Also it remains open whether or not the previous trial effect emerges via the same mechanism as the effect of knowledge about the target probability. In the present study, we asked normal human subjects to make a decision about the presence or absence of a visual target. We presented a pre-cue indicating the target probability before the stimulus, and also a decision-response mapping cue after the stimulus so as to tease apart the effect of decision from that of motor response. We found that the target detection performance was significantly affected by the probability cue in the current trial and also by the decision in the previous trial. While the information about the target probability modulated the decision criteria, the previous decision modulated the sensitivity to target-relevant sensory signals (d-prime). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we also found that activation in the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS) was decreased when the probability cue indicated a high probability of the target. By contrast, activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) was increased when the subjects made a target-present decision in the previous trial, but this change was observed specifically when the target was present in the current trial. Activation in these regions was associated with individual-difference in the decision computation parameters. We argue that the previous decision biases the target detection performance by modulating the processing of target-selective information, and this mechanism is distinct from modulation of decision criteria due to expectation of a target. PMID:25999844

Analysis of Chemical Composition of Portland Cement in Ghana: A Key to Understand the Behavior of Cement

OpenAIRE

Bediako, Mark; Amankwah, Eric Opoku

2015-01-01

The performance of Portland cement in concrete or mortar formation is very well influenced by chemical compositions among other factors. Many engineers usually have little information on the chemical compositions of cement in making decisions for the choice of commercially available Portland cement in Ghana. This work analyzed five different brands of Portland cement in Ghana, namely, Ghacem ordinary Portland cement (OPC) and Portland limestone cement (PLC), CSIR-BRRI Pozzomix, Dangote OPC, a...

A risk-based focused decision-management approach for justifying characterization of Hanford tank waste. June 1996, Revision 1; April 1997, Revision 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Colson, S.D.; Gephart, R.E.; Hunter, V.L.; Janata, J.; Morgan, L.G.

1997-12-31

This report describes a disciplined, risk-based decision-making approach for determining characterization needs and resolving safety issues during the storage and remediation of radioactive waste stored in Hanford tanks. The strategy recommended uses interactive problem evaluation and decision analysis methods commonly used in industry to solve problems under conditions of uncertainty (i.e., lack of perfect knowledge). It acknowledges that problem resolution comes through both the application of high-quality science and human decisions based upon preferences and sometimes hard-to-compare choices. It recognizes that to firmly resolve a safety problem, the controlling waste characteristics and chemical phenomena must be measurable or estimated to an acceptable level of confidence tailored to the decision being made.

A risk-based focused decision-management approach for justifying characterization of Hanford tank waste. June 1996, Revision 1; April 1997, Revision 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colson, S.D.; Gephart, R.E.; Hunter, V.L.; Janata, J.; Morgan, L.G.

1997-01-01

This report describes a disciplined, risk-based decision-making approach for determining characterization needs and resolving safety issues during the storage and remediation of radioactive waste stored in Hanford tanks. The strategy recommended uses interactive problem evaluation and decision analysis methods commonly used in industry to solve problems under conditions of uncertainty (i.e., lack of perfect knowledge). It acknowledges that problem resolution comes through both the application of high-quality science and human decisions based upon preferences and sometimes hard-to-compare choices. It recognizes that to firmly resolve a safety problem, the controlling waste characteristics and chemical phenomena must be measurable or estimated to an acceptable level of confidence tailored to the decision being made

Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

CERN Document Server

Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

2012-01-01

This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

Group Decision Process Support

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao

1997-01-01

Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....

A systematic review of decision support needs of parents making child health decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Cath; Cheater, Francine M.; Reid, Innes

2008-01-01

Abstract Objective  To identify the decision support needs of parents attempting to make an informed health decision on behalf of a child. Context  The first step towards implementing patient decision support is to assess patients’ information and decision‐making needs. Search strategy  A systematic search of key bibliographic databases for decision support studies was performed in 2005. Reference lists of relevant review articles and key authors were searched. Three relevant journals were hand searched. Inclusion criteria  Non‐intervention studies containing data on decision support needs of parents making child health decisions. Data extraction and synthesis  Data were extracted on study characteristics, decision focus and decision support needs. Studies were quality assessed using a pre‐defined set of criteria. Data synthesis used the UK Evidence for Policy and Practice Information and Co‐ordinating Centre approach. Main results  One‐hundred and forty nine studies were included across various child health decisions, settings and study designs. Thematic analysis of decision support needs indicated three key issues: (i) information (including suggestions about the content, delivery, source, timing); (ii) talking to others (including concerns about pressure from others); and (iii) feeling a sense of control over the process that could be influenced by emotionally charged decisions, the consultation process, and structural or service barriers. These were consistent across decision type, study design and whether or not the study focused on informed decision making. PMID:18816320

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vickers Andrew

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

The Relations between Decision Making in Social Relationships and Decision Making Styles

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, Enver

2008-01-01

The research reported in this paper aimed to examine the relationships between decisiveness in social relationships, and the decision-making styles of a group of university students and to investigate the contributions of decision-making styles in predicting decisiveness in social relationship (conflict resolution, social relationship selection…

What is known about parents' treatment decisions? A narrative review of pediatric decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Lipstein, Ellen A; Brinkman, William B; Britto, Maria T

2012-01-01

With the increasing complexity of decisions in pediatric medicine, there is a growing need to understand the pediatric decision-making process. To conduct a narrative review of the current research on parent decision making about pediatric treatments and identify areas in need of further investigation. Articles presenting original research on parent decision making were identified from MEDLINE (1966-6/2011), using the terms "decision making," "parent," and "child." We included papers focused on treatment decisions but excluded those focused on information disclosure to children, vaccination, and research participation decisions. We found 55 papers describing 52 distinct studies, the majority being descriptive, qualitative studies of the decision-making process, with very limited assessment of decision outcomes. Although parents' preferences for degree of participation in pediatric decision making vary, most are interested in sharing the decision with the provider. In addition to the provider, parents are influenced in their decision making by changes in their child's health status, other community members, prior knowledge, and personal factors, such as emotions and faith. Parents struggle to balance these influences as well as to know when to include their child in decision making. Current research demonstrates a diversity of influences on parent decision making and parent decision preferences; however, little is known about decision outcomes or interventions to improve outcomes. Further investigation, using prospective methods, is needed in order to understand how to support parents through the difficult treatment decisions.

Computerized Decision Aids for Shared Decision Making in Serious Illness: Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Staszewska, Anna; Zaki, Pearl; Lee, Joon

2017-10-06

Shared decision making (SDM) is important in achieving patient-centered care. SDM tools such as decision aids are intended to inform the patient. When used to assist in decision making between treatments, decision aids have been shown to reduce decisional conflict, increase ease of decision making, and increase modification of previous decisions. The purpose of this systematic review is to assess the impact of computerized decision aids on patient-centered outcomes related to SDM for seriously ill patients. PubMed and Scopus databases were searched to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that assessed the impact of computerized decision aids on patient-centered outcomes and SDM in serious illness. Six RCTs were identified and data were extracted on study population, design, and results. Risk of bias was assessed by a modified Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for Quality Assessment of Randomized Controlled Trials. Six RCTs tested decision tools in varying serious illnesses. Three studies compared different computerized decision aids against each other and a control. All but one study demonstrated improvement in at least one patient-centered outcome. Computerized decision tools may reduce unnecessary treatment in patients with low disease severity in comparison with informational pamphlets. Additionally, electronic health record (EHR) portals may provide the opportunity to manage care from the home for individuals affected by illness. The quality of decision aids is of great importance. Furthermore, satisfaction with the use of tools is associated with increased patient satisfaction and reduced decisional conflict. Finally, patients may benefit from computerized decision tools without the need for increased physician involvement. Most computerized decision aids improved at least one patient-centered outcome. All RCTs identified were at a High Risk of Bias or Unclear Risk of Bias. Effort should be made to improve the quality of RCTs testing SDM aids in serious

Nanotoxicology and nanomedicine: making development decisions in an evolving governance environment

Science.gov (United States)

Rycroft, Taylor; Trump, Benjamin; Poinsatte-Jones, Kelsey; Linkov, Igor

2018-02-01

The fields of nanomedicine, risk analysis, and decision science have evolved considerably in the past decade, providing developers of nano-enabled therapies and diagnostic tools with more complete information than ever before and shifting a fundamental requisite of the nanomedical community from the need for more information about nanomaterials to the need for a streamlined method of integrating the abundance of nano-specific information into higher-certainty product design decisions. The crucial question facing nanomedicine developers that must select the optimal nanotechnology in a given situation has shifted from "how do we estimate nanomaterial risk in the absence of good risk data?" to "how can we derive a holistic characterization of the risks and benefits that a given nanomaterial may pose within a specific nanomedical application?" Many decision support frameworks have been proposed to assist with this inquiry; however, those based in multicriteria decision analysis have proven to be most adaptive in the rapidly evolving field of nanomedicine—from the early stages of the field when conditions of significant uncertainty and incomplete information dominated, to today when nanotoxicology and nano-environmental health and safety information is abundant but foundational paradigms such as chemical risk assessment, risk governance, life cycle assessment, safety-by-design, and stakeholder engagement are undergoing substantial reformation in an effort to address the needs of emerging technologies. In this paper, we reflect upon 10 years of developments in nanomedical engineering and demonstrate how the rich knowledgebase of nano-focused toxicological and risk assessment information developed over the last decade enhances the capability of multicriteria decision analysis approaches and underscores the need to continue the transition from traditional risk assessment towards risk-based decision-making and alternatives-based governance for emerging technologies.

How to make the best decision. Philosophical aspects of clinical decision theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Wulff, H R

1981-01-01

An attempt is made to discuss some of the philosophical implications of the use of decision-analytic techniques. The probabilities of a decision analysis are subjective measures of belief, and it is concluded that clinicians base their subjective beliefs on both recorded observations and theoretical knowledge. The clinical decision maker also evaluates the consequences of his actions, and therefore clinical decision theory transcends medical science. A number of different schools of normative ethics are mentioned to illustrate the complexity of everyday decision making. The philosophical terminology is useful for the analysis of clinical problems, and it is argued that clinical decision making has both a teleological and a deontological component. The results of decision-analytic studies depend on such factors as the wealth of the country, the organization of the health service, and cultural norms.

A communication model of shared decision making: accounting for cancer treatment decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Siminoff, Laura A; Step, Mary M

2005-07-01

The authors present a communication model of shared decision making (CMSDM) that explicitly identifies the communication process as the vehicle for decision making in cancer treatment. In this view, decision making is necessarily a sociocommunicative process whereby people enter into a relationship, exchange information, establish preferences, and choose a course of action. The model derives from contemporary notions of behavioral decision making and ethical conceptions of the doctor-patient relationship. This article briefly reviews the theoretical approaches to decision making, notes deficiencies, and embeds a more socially based process into the dynamics of the physician-patient relationship, focusing on cancer treatment decisions. In the CMSDM, decisions depend on (a) antecedent factors that have potential to influence communication, (b) jointly constructed communication climate, and (c) treatment preferences established by the physician and the patient.

Public participation in decision-making for contaminated sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Till, J.E.; Sharp, S.L.

2000-01-01

Public participation is critical in environmental decision-making. This paper provides three examples of public participation in the decision making process. The first example illustrates the effectiveness of public involvement when incorporated at the beginning of a project. The second example shows the loss of trust by a community resulting from the lack of public involvement. The third example demonstrates public involvement in making risk-based decisions for corrective action in a non-radiological situation. The first site is the Los Alamos National Laboratory where a lawsuit filed by local citizens led to an independent audit of the laboratory's compliance with the Clean Air Act for radionuclides. The audit team involved the public extensively, resulting in close interaction during the audit and a better understanding by the public of the regulations. The second site is the Rocky Flats Plant nuclear weapons facility, which is being decommissioned and the surrounding property will ultimately be available for public use. The Department of Energy proposed a cleanup level but the level was developed with little public input and has been criticized widely by local residents. As a result, the target cleanup levels are being reevaluated by an independent contractor with oversight from a panel of local members of the public. Working with the independent contractor, the panel proposed new cleanup standards to the Department of Energy. The third site is a bulk oil and terminal where chemicals have migrated offsite into a residential area. Facility owners have initiated a public involvement program to help the community understand the potential risks involved and alternatives for remedial action. The public is playing a key role in the risk-based decision making process. Each of these examples illustrates the importance of public participation in different situations. (author)

Cognitive-emotional decision making (CEDM): a framework of patient medical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Power, Tara E; Swartzman, Leora C; Robinson, John W

2011-05-01

Assistance for patients faced with medical decisions has largely focussed on the clarification of information and personal values. Our aim is to draw on the decision research describing the role of emotion in combination with health behaviour models to provide a framework for conceptualizing patient decisions. A review of the psychological and medical decision making literature concerned with the role of emotion/affect in decision making and health behaviours. Emotion plays an influential role in decision making. Both current and anticipated emotions play a motivational role in choice. Amalgamating these findings with that of Leventhal's (1970) SRM provide a framework for thinking about the influence of emotion on a patient medical decision. Our framework suggests that a patient must cope with four sets of elements. The first two relate to the need to manage the cognitive and emotional aspects of the health threat. The second set relate to the management of the cognitive and emotional elements of the decision, itself. The framework provides a way for practitioners and researchers to frame thinking about a patient medical decision in order to assist the patient in clarifying decisional priorities. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for the analysis of the security of supply of utilising carbon dioxide as a chemical feedstock.

Science.gov (United States)

Fraga, Eric S; Ng, Melvin

2015-01-01

Recent developments in catalysts have enhanced the potential for the utilisation of carbon dioxide as a chemical feedstock. Using the appropriate energy efficient catalyst enables a range of chemical pathways leading to desirable products. In doing so, CO2 provides an economically and environmentally beneficial source of C1 feedstock, while improving the issues relating to security of supply that are associated with fossil-based feedstocks. However, the dependence on catalysts brings other supply chains into consideration, supply chains that may also have security of supply issues. The choice of chemical pathways for specific products will therefore entail an assessment not only of economic factors but also the security of supply issues for the catalysts. This is a multi-criteria decision making problem. In this paper, we present a modified 4A framework based on the framework suggested by the Asian Pacific Energy Research centre for macro-economic applications. The 4A methodology is named after the criteria used to compare alternatives: availability, acceptability, applicability and affordability. We have adapted this framework for the consideration of alternative chemical reaction processes using a micro-economic outlook. Data from a number of sources were collected and used to quantify each of the 4A criteria. A graphical representation of the assessments is used to support the decision maker in comparing alternatives. The framework not only allows for the comparison of processes but also highlights current limitations in the CCU processes. The framework presented can be used by a variety of stakeholders, including regulators, investors, and process industries, with the aim of identifying promising routes within a broader multi-criteria decision making process.

Inertia and Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

2016-01-01

Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

Making difficult decisions how to be decisive and get the business done

CERN Document Server

Shaw, Peter J A

2010-01-01

You are faced with so many difficult decisions. Often your decision making seems random. It can be swayed by different situations and emotions. You need to be more rigorous in the way you make decisions and yet you have very little time to do so. Experience from others who have made tough decisions and a framework to help you do so would be invaluable. The courage to make decisions is sometimes a bit elusive. It is difficult to find the calmness to be able to make and live with those decisions. There is so much that can be learned from the experience of others. After working through this boo

What Is Known about Parents’ Treatment Decisions? A Narrative Review of Pediatric Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Lipstein, Ellen A.; Brinkman, William B.; Britto, Maria T.

2013-01-01

Background With the increasing complexity of decisions in pediatric medicine, there is a growing need to understand the pediatric decision-making process. Objective To conduct a narrative review of the current research on parent decision making about pediatric treatments and identify areas in need of further investigation. Methods Articles presenting original research on parent decision making were identified from MEDLINE (1966–6/2011), using the terms “decision making,” “parent,” and “child.” We included papers focused on treatment decisions but excluded those focused on information disclosure to children, vaccination, and research participation decisions. Results We found 55 papers describing 52 distinct studies, the majority being descriptive, qualitative studies of the decision-making process, with very limited assessment of decision outcomes. Although parents’ preferences for degree of participation in pediatric decision making vary, most are interested in sharing the decision with the provider. In addition to the provider, parents are influenced in their decision making by changes in their child’s health status, other community members, prior knowledge, and personal factors, such as emotions and faith. Parents struggle to balance these influences as well as to know when to include their child in decision making. Conclusions Current research demonstrates a diversity of influences on parent decision making and parent decision preferences; however, little is known about decision outcomes or interventions to improve outcomes. Further investigation, using prospective methods, is needed in order to understand how to support parents through the difficult treatment decisions. PMID:21969136

Operational readiness decisions at nuclear power plants - part 2. Which factors influence the decisions?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kecklund, Lena; Petterson, Sara

2008-04-01

The first report contained a summary of relevant research of decision making, a case study at Ringhals power plant and an analysis of some real cases of operational readiness decisions. In this report two case studies in the Swedish power plants, OKG and Forsmark are presented. The case study description consists of three parts; a description of the support from the management system for the decision making process, interviews with decision makers and an analysis of real cases of operational readiness decisions. The purpose of the project has been to increase the understanding of the decision process in operational readiness decisions as well as the support given from the management system and what factors influence the decisions. From a general point of view the circumstances where the decision must be taken varies, but situations and events that lead to questioning of the operational readiness are often easy to identify. There are often support documents such as procedures, rules and technical documents which specify operational limitations which give explicit decision criteria. These decisions are easy. When needed colleagues can be consulted for support. In unclear situations and/or when the technical criteria is not clear, e.g. when the rules and regulations are vague or even in conflict or when it is not evident that you need to question the operational readiness, the decision is more difficult to make. The results from the study shows that such decisions in general are not made by the shift crew manager but handed over to the next management level. The decision making process differs between the power plants. At one of the power plants the decision process is organised in specific meetings where decision made are reviewed by the next higher management level. At another plant the decisions are often made in groups or in consultation with colleagues. The management system makes a distinction between decisions made in consultation and when decisions already

III Scientific-technical conference. Problems and outlooks for development of chemical and radiochemical control in atomic energetics (Atomenergoanalytics-2005). Summaries of reports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

Summaries of reports of the III Scientific-technical conference: Problems and outlooks for development of chemical and radiochemical control in atomic energetics (Atomenergoanalytics-2005) are presented. The conference performed 20-22 September, 2005, in Sosnovyj Bor. Problems of methodical, instrumental and metrological supply of chemical, radiochemical and radiometric control at active NPP and NPU, modern concepts of construction of automated systems of chemical and radiometric control in the atomic energetics, directions for the decision of questions in organization and conducting of chemical and radiochemical control of water-chemical regimes of NPP and NPU are discussed [ru

Environmental Decision Analysis: Meeting the Challenges of Making Good Decisions at CALFED

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claire D Tomkins

2006-09-01

Full Text Available We present a methodology to support decision making at CALFED based on the principles of decision analysis, an analytical approach to decision making designed to handle complex decisions involving both uncertainty and multiple dimensions of value. The impetus for such an approach is a recognized need to enhance communication between scientists and management and between program elements within CALFED. In addition, the environmental decision analysis framework supports both the explicit representation of uncertainty in the decision problem and communication about risk, important elements of most environmental management decisions. The decision analysis cycle consists of four phases: 1 formulate, 2 evaluate, 3 appraise, and 4 decide. In phase one, we identify the objectives and also the alternatives, or possible actions. To facilitate inter-comparison between proposed actions, we recommend formulation of a set of common metrics for CALFED. In our pilot study, we introduced common metrics for salinity, winter-run Chinook salmon survival, and habitat health. The second phase focuses on quantifying possible impacts on the set of metrics, drawing on existing data, model runs, and expert opinions. For the evaluation phase, we employ tools such as decision trees to assess the system-wide impacts of a given action. In the final phase, tools such as expected cost-benefit analysis, value contribution diagrams, and 3-D tradeoff plots aid communication between various stakeholders, scientists, and managers. While decision analysis provides a spectrum of decision support tools, we emphasize that it does not dictate a solution but rather enhances communication about tradeoffs associated with different actions.

Emergency material allocation with time-varying supply-demand based on dynamic optimization method for river chemical spills.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Wang, Peng

2018-04-13

Aiming to minimize the damage caused by river chemical spills, efficient emergency material allocation is critical for an actual emergency rescue decision-making in a quick response. In this study, an emergency material allocation framework based on time-varying supply-demand constraint is developed to allocate emergency material, minimize the emergency response time, and satisfy the dynamic emergency material requirements in post-accident phases dealing with river chemical spills. In this study, the theoretically critical emergency response time is firstly obtained for the emergency material allocation system to select a series of appropriate emergency material warehouses as potential supportive centers. Then, an enumeration method is applied to identify the practically critical emergency response time, the optimum emergency material allocation and replenishment scheme. Finally, the developed framework is applied to a computational experiment based on south-to-north water transfer project in China. The results illustrate that the proposed methodology is a simple and flexible tool for appropriately allocating emergency material to satisfy time-dynamic demands during emergency decision-making. Therefore, the decision-makers can identify an appropriate emergency material allocation scheme in a balance between time-effective and cost-effective objectives under the different emergency pollution conditions.

Development of a decision support system to manage contamination in marine ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Dagnino, A; Viarengo, A

2014-01-01

In recent years, contamination and its interaction with climate-change variables have been recognized as critical stressors in coastal areas, emphasizing the need for a standardized framework encompassing chemical and biological data into risk indices to support decision-making. We therefore developed an innovative, expert decision support system (Exp-DSS) for the management of contamination in marine coastal ecosystems. The Exp-DSS has two main applications: (i) to determine environmental risk and biological vulnerability in contaminated sites; and (ii) to support the management of waters and sediments by assessing the risk due to the exposure of biota to these matrices. The Exp-DSS evaluates chemical data, both as single compounds and as total toxic pressure of the mixture, to compare concentrations to effect-based thresholds (TELs and PELs). Sites are then placed into three categories of contamination: uncontaminated, mildly contaminated, and highly contaminated. In highly contaminated sites, effects on high-level ecotoxicological endpoints (i.e. survival and reproduction) are used to determine risk at the organism-population level, while ecological parameters (i.e. alterations in community structure and ecosystem functions) are considered for assessing effects on biodiversity. Changes in sublethal biomarkers are utilized to assess the stress level of the organisms in mildly contaminated sites. In Triad studies, chemical concentrations, ecotoxicological high-level effects, and ecological data are combined to determine the level of environmental risk in highly contaminated sites; chemical concentration and ecotoxicological sublethal effects are evaluated to determine biological vulnerability in mildly contaminated sites. The Exp-DSS was applied to data from the literature about sediment quality in estuarine areas of Spain, and ranked risks related to exposure to contaminated sediments from high risk (Huelva estuary) to mild risk (Guadalquivir estuary and Bay of

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-01

A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

Method of decision tree applied in adopting the decision for promoting a company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cezarina Adina TOFAN

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The decision can be defined as the way chosen from several possible to achieve an objective. An important role in the functioning of the decisional-informational system is held by the decision-making methods. Decision trees are proving to be very useful tools for taking financial decisions or regarding the numbers, where a large amount of complex information must be considered. They provide an effective structure in which alternative decisions and the implications of their choice can be assessed, and help to form a correct and balanced vision of the risks and rewards that may result from a certain choice. For these reasons, the content of this communication will review a series of decision-making criteria. Also, it will analyse the benefits of using the decision tree method in the decision-making process by providing a numerical example. On this basis, it can be concluded that the procedure may prove useful in making decisions for companies operating on markets where competition intensity is differentiated.

Ab initio chemical safety assessment: A workflow based on exposure considerations and non-animal methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Berggren, Elisabet; White, Andrew; Ouedraogo, Gladys; Paini, Alicia; Richarz, Andrea-Nicole; Bois, Frederic Y; Exner, Thomas; Leite, Sofia; Grunsven, Leo A van; Worth, Andrew; Mahony, Catherine

2017-11-01

We describe and illustrate a workflow for chemical safety assessment that completely avoids animal testing. The workflow, which was developed within the SEURAT-1 initiative, is designed to be applicable to cosmetic ingredients as well as to other types of chemicals, e.g. active ingredients in plant protection products, biocides or pharmaceuticals. The aim of this work was to develop a workflow to assess chemical safety without relying on any animal testing, but instead constructing a hypothesis based on existing data, in silico modelling, biokinetic considerations and then by targeted non-animal testing. For illustrative purposes, we consider a hypothetical new ingredient x as a new component in a body lotion formulation. The workflow is divided into tiers in which points of departure are established through in vitro testing and in silico prediction, as the basis for estimating a safe external dose in a repeated use scenario. The workflow includes a series of possible exit (decision) points, with increasing levels of confidence, based on the sequential application of the Threshold of Toxicological (TTC) approach, read-across, followed by an "ab initio" assessment, in which chemical safety is determined entirely by new in vitro testing and in vitro to in vivo extrapolation by means of mathematical modelling. We believe that this workflow could be applied as a tool to inform targeted and toxicologically relevant in vitro testing, where necessary, and to gain confidence in safety decision making without the need for animal testing.

Decision Making Based On Management Information System and Decision Support System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Şükrü Ada

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.

Planning guidance for the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shumpert, B.L.; Watson, A.P.; Sorensen, J.H. [and others

1995-02-01

This planning guide was developed under the direction of the U.S. Army and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) which jointly coordinate and direct the development of the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program (CSEPP). It was produced to assist state, local, and Army installation planners in formulating and coordinating plans for chemical events that may occur at the chemical agent stockpile storage locations in the continental United States. This document provides broad planning guidance for use by both on-post and off-post agencies and organizations in the development of a coordinated plan for responding to chemical events. It contains checklists to assist in assuring that all important aspects are included in the plans and procedures developed at each Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program (CSDP) location. The checklists are supplemented by planning guidelines in the appendices which provide more detailed guidance regarding some issues. The planning guidance contained in this document will help ensure that adequate coordination between on-post and off-post planners occurs during the planning process. This planning guide broadly describes an adequate emergency planning base that assures that critical planning decisions will be made consistently at every chemical agent stockpile location. This planning guide includes material drawn from other documents developed by the FEMA, the Army, and other federal agencies with emergency preparedness program responsibilities. Some of this material has been developed specifically to meet the unique requirements of the CSEPP. In addition to this guidance, other location-specific documents, technical studies, and support studies should be used as needed to assist in the planning at each of the chemical agent stockpile locations to address the specific hazards and conditions at each location.

Decision Making in Action

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lombard, J.

1986-09-01

The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

Flexibility in collective decision-making by ant colonies: Tracking food across space and time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dussutour, Audrey; Nicolis, Stamatios C.

2013-01-01

Deciding which of many available resources to exploit is a problem faced by a range of decentralized biological systems. For example, ants are able to choose between food sources that vary in quality using a chemical trail. This communication system characterized by a strong positive feedback allows a rapid transfer of information and the selection of the best food source. This is true in static environment, where a single, unchanging solution exists. In dynamic environments however such recruitment often ‘lock’ groups into suboptimal decisions, preventing a response to changes in available resources. Here, we investigate decision-making in a dynamic environment for the greenhead ants (Rhytidoponera metallica) which use a non-chemical recruitment. To experimentally test our study species’ ability to adapt to changes in their foraging environment, we offered three feeders that changed in quality. At any given time, only one feeder provided high quality food, while the others provided low quality food. Every two hours, the quality of the feeders changed such that the previously high quality feeder became a low quality feeder, and vice versa. We showed that ants were able to track changes in food quality across space and time. By coupling behavioral observations to computer simulations, we demonstrate that selection of food sources relies uniquely on a retention effect of feeding individuals on newcomers without comparison between available opportunities. The elegance of these parsimonious foraging systems is that the collective decision arises from the perception of conspecifics without the need for a leader having a synoptic overall view of the situation and knowing all the available options

Excluded-Mean-Variance Neural Decision Analyzer for Qualitative Group Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ki-Young Song

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Many qualitative group decisions in professional fields such as law, engineering, economics, psychology, and medicine that appear to be crisp and certain are in reality shrouded in fuzziness as a result of uncertain environments and the nature of human cognition within which the group decisions are made. In this paper we introduce an innovative approach to group decision making in uncertain situations by using a mean-variance neural approach. The key idea of this proposed approach is to compute the excluded mean of individual evaluations and weight it by applying a variance influence function (VIF; this process of weighting the excluded mean by VIF provides an improved result in the group decision making. In this paper, a case study with the proposed excluded-mean-variance approach is also presented. The results of this case study indicate that this proposed approach can improve the effectiveness of qualitative decision making by providing the decision maker with a new cognitive tool to assist in the reasoning process.

Arrhenius-kinetics evidence for quantum tunneling in microbial “social” decision rates

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Social-like bacteria, fungi and protozoa communicate chemical and behavioral signals to coordinate their specializations into an ordered group of individuals capable of fitter ecological performance. Examples of microbial “social” behaviors include sporulation and dispersion, kin recognition and nonclonal or paired reproduction. Paired reproduction by ciliates is believed to involve intra- and intermate selection through pheromone-stimulated “courting” rituals. Such social maneuvering minimizes survival-reproduction tradeoffs while sorting superior mates from inferior ones, lowering the vertical spread of deleterious genes in geographically constricted populations and possibly promoting advantageous genetic innovations. In a previous article, I reported findings that the heterotrich Spirostomum ambiguum can out-complete mating rivals in simulated social trials by learning behavioral heuristics which it then employs to store and select sets of altruistic and deceptive signaling strategies. Frequencies of strategy use typically follow Maxwell-Boltzmann (MB), Fermi-Dirac (FD) or Bose-Einstein (BE) statistical distributions. For ciliates most adept at social decision making, a brief classical MB computational phase drives signaling behavior into a later quantum BE computational phase that condenses or favors the selection of a single fittest strategy. Appearance of the network analogue of BE condensation coincides with Hebbian-like trial-and-error learning and is consistent with the idea that cells behave as heat engines, where loss of energy associated with specific cellular machinery critical for mating decisions effectively reduces the temperature of intracellular enzymes cohering into weak Fröhlich superposition. I extend these findings by showing the rates at which ciliates switch serial behavioral strategies agree with principles of chemical reactions exhibiting linear and nonlinear Arrhenius kinetics during respective classical and quantum computations

A multi-scale, multi-disciplinary approach for assessing the technological, economic and environmental performance of bio-based chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Herrgård, Markus; Sukumara, Sumesh; Campodonico, Miguel; Zhuang, Kai

2015-12-01

In recent years, bio-based chemicals have gained interest as a renewable alternative to petrochemicals. However, there is a significant need to assess the technological, biological, economic and environmental feasibility of bio-based chemicals, particularly during the early research phase. Recently, the Multi-scale framework for Sustainable Industrial Chemicals (MuSIC) was introduced to address this issue by integrating modelling approaches at different scales ranging from cellular to ecological scales. This framework can be further extended by incorporating modelling of the petrochemical value chain and the de novo prediction of metabolic pathways connecting existing host metabolism to desirable chemical products. This multi-scale, multi-disciplinary framework for quantitative assessment of bio-based chemicals will play a vital role in supporting engineering, strategy and policy decisions as we progress towards a sustainable chemical industry. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

Decision or no decision: how do patient-physician interactions end and what matters?

Science.gov (United States)

Tai-Seale, Ming; Bramson, Rachel; Bao, Xiaoming

2007-03-01

A clearly stated clinical decision can induce a cognitive closure in patients and is an important investment in the end of patient-physician communications. Little is known about how often explicit decisions are made in primary care visits. To use an innovative videotape analysis approach to assess physicians' propensity to state decisions explicitly, and to examine the factors influencing decision patterns. We coded topics discussed in 395 videotapes of primary care visits, noting the number of instances and the length of discussions on each topic, and how discussions ended. A regression analysis tested the relationship between explicit decisions and visit factors such as the nature of topics under discussion, instances of discussion, the amount of time the patient spoke, and competing demands from other topics. About 77% of topics ended with explicit decisions. Patients spoke for an average of 58 seconds total per topic. Patients spoke more during topics that ended with an explicit decision, (67 seconds), compared with 36 seconds otherwise. The number of instances of a topic was associated with higher odds of having an explicit decision (OR = 1.73, p decisions. Although discussions often ended with explicit decisions, there were variations related to the content and dynamics of interactions. We recommend strengthening patients' voice and developing clinical tools, e.g., an "exit prescription," to improving decision making.

Decision making and imperfection

CERN Document Server

Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

2013-01-01

Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process.   The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider:   ·          how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions;   ·          how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available;   ...

Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

Science.gov (United States)

Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

2013-01-01

We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

Abortion Decision and Ambivalence: Insights via an Abortion Decision Balance Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Allanson, Susie

2007-01-01

Decision ambivalence is a key concept in abortion literature, but has been poorly operationalised. This study explored the concept of decision ambivalence via an Abortion Decision Balance Sheet (ADBS) articulating reasons both for and against terminating an unintended pregnancy. Ninety-six women undergoing an early abortion for psychosocial…

Decision making under uncertainty: An investigation into the application of formal decision-making methods to safety issue decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, M.P.

1992-12-01

As part of the NRC-sponsored program to study the implications of Generic Issue 57, ''Effects of Fire Protection System Actuation on Safety-Related Equipment,'' a subtask was performed to evaluate the applicability of formal decision analysis methods to generic issues cost/benefit-type decisions and to apply these methods to the GI-57 results. In this report, the numerical results obtained from the analysis of three plants (two PWRs and one BWR) as developed in the technical resolution program for GI-57 were studied. For each plant, these results included a calculation of the person-REM averted due to various accident scenarios and various proposed modifications to mitigate the accident scenarios identified. These results were recomputed to break out the benefit in terms of contributions due to random event scenarios, fire event scenarios, and seismic event scenarios. Furthermore, the benefits associated with risk (in terms of person-REM) averted from earthquakes at three different seismic ground motion levels were separately considered. Given this data, formal decision methodologies involving decision trees, value functions, and utility functions were applied to this basic data. It is shown that the formal decision methodology can be applied at several different levels. Examples are given in which the decision between several retrofits is changed from that resulting from a simple cost/benefit-ratio criterion by virtue of the decision-makinger's expressed (and assumed) preferences

Stakeholders apply the GRADE evidence-to-decision framework to facilitate coverage decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dahm, Philipp; Oxman, Andrew D; Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Guyatt, Gordon H; Murad, M Hassan; Amato, Laura; Parmelli, Elena; Davoli, Marina; Morgan, Rebecca L; Mustafa, Reem A; Sultan, Shahnaz; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Akl, Elie A; Schünemann, Holger J

2017-06-01

Coverage decisions are complex and require the consideration of many factors. A well-defined, transparent process could improve decision-making and facilitate decision-maker accountability. We surveyed key US-based stakeholders regarding their current approaches for coverage decisions. Then, we held a workshop to test an evidence-to-decision (EtD) framework for coverage based on the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. A total of 42 individuals (including 19 US stakeholders as well as international health policymakers and GRADE working group members) attended the workshop. Of the 19 stakeholders, 14 (74%) completed the survey before the workshop. Almost all of their organizations (13 of 14; 93%) used systematic reviews for coverage decision-making; few (2 of 14; 14%) developed their own evidence synthesis; a majority (9 of 14; 64%) rated the certainty of evidence (using various systems); almost all (13 of 14; 93%) denied formal consideration of resource use; and half (7 of 14; 50%) reported explicit criteria for decision-making. At the workshop, stakeholders successfully applied the EtD framework to four case studies and provided narrative feedback, which centered on contextual factors affecting coverage decisions in the United States, the need for reliable data on subgroups of patients, and the challenge of decision-making without formal consideration of resource use. Stakeholders successfully applied the EtD framework to four case studies and highlighted contextual factors affecting coverage decisions and affirmed its value. Their input informed the further development of a revised EtD framework, now publicly available (http://gradepro.org/). Published by Elsevier Inc.

Repeated causal decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

2013-01-01

Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Why small and medium chemical companies continue to pose severe environmental risks in rural China.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Guizhen; Zhang, Lei; Mol, Arthur P J; Wang, Tieyu; Lu, Yonglong

2014-02-01

In China, rural chemical SMEs are often believed to still largely operate below the sustainability radar. This paper investigates to what extent and how chemical SMEs are already experiencing pressure to improve their environmental performance, using an in-depth case study in Jasmine County, Hebei province. The results show that local residents had rather low trust in the environmental improvement promises made by the enterprises and the local government, and disagreed with the proposed improvement plans. Although the power of local residents to influence decision making remained limited, the chemical SMEs started to feel increasing pressures to clean up their business, from governments, local communities and civil society, and international value chain stakeholders. Notwithstanding these mounting pressures chemical SME's environmental behavior and performance has not changed radically for the better. The strong economic ties between local county governments and chemical SMEs continue to be a major barrier for stringent environmental regulation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

2016-01-01

Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

Defining decision making: a qualitative study of international experts' views on surgical trainee decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H

2011-06-01

Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.

Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew M Parker

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI. The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn. The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision making.

Decision Making Styles and Progress in Occupational Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

1984-01-01

Examined the role of rational, intuitive, and dependent decisional strategies in facilitating decisions about postcollege occupation among college students (N=71). Results indicated that the use of a dependent decision-making style was the single most powerful predictor of progress. (LLL)

Decision conflict and regret among surrogate decision makers in the medical intensive care unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jesse J; Morris, Peter; Files, D Clark; Gower, Emily; Young, Michael

2016-04-01

Family members of critically ill patients in the intensive care unit face significant morbidity. It may be the decision-making process that plays a significant role in the psychological morbidity associated with being a surrogate in the ICU. We hypothesize that family members facing end-of-life decisions will have more decisional conflict and decisional regret than those facing non-end-of-life decisions. We enrolled a sample of adult patients and their surrogates in a tertiary care, academic medical intensive care unit. We queried the surrogates regarding decisions they had made on behalf of the patient and assessed decision conflict. We then contacted the family member again to assess decision regret. Forty (95%) of 42 surrogates were able to identify at least 1 decision they had made on behalf of the patient. End-of-life decisions (defined as do not resuscitate [DNR]/do not intubate [DNI] or continuation of life support) accounted for 19 of 40 decisions (47.5%). Overall, the average Decision Conflict Scale (DCS) score was 21.9 of 100 (range 0-100, with 0 being little decisional conflict and 100 being great decisional conflict). The average DCS score for families facing end-of-life decisions was 25.5 compared with 18.7 for all other decisions. Those facing end-of-life decisions scored higher on the uncertainty subscale (subset of DCS questions that indicates level of certainty regarding decision) with a mean score of 43.4 compared with all other decisions with a mean score of 27.0. Overall, very few surrogates experienced decisional regret with an average DRS score of 13.4 of 100. Nearly all surrogates enrolled were faced with decision-making responsibilities on behalf of his or her critically ill family member. In our small pilot study, we found more decisional conflict in those surrogates facing end-of-life decisions, specifically on the subset of questions dealing with uncertainty. Surrogates report low levels of decisional regret. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier

[Chemical weapons and chemical terrorism].

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamura, Katsumi

2005-10-01

Chemical Weapons are kind of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). They were used large quantities in WWI. Historically, large quantities usage like WWI was not recorded, but small usage has appeared now and then. Chemical weapons are so called "Nuclear weapon for poor countrys" because it's very easy to produce/possession being possible. They are categorized (1) Nerve Agents, (2) Blister Agents, (3) Cyanide (blood) Agents, (4) Pulmonary Agents, (5) Incapacitating Agents (6) Tear Agents from the viewpoint of human body interaction. In 1997 the Chemical Weapons Convention has taken effect. It prohibits chemical weapons development/production, and Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) verification regime contributes to the chemical weapons disposal. But possibility of possession/use of weapons of mass destruction by terrorist group represented in one by Matsumoto and Tokyo Subway Sarin Attack, So new chemical terrorism countermeasures are necessary.

Plan for increasing public participation in cleanup decisions for the Los Alamos National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

This document describes a plan for involving the public in decisions related to cleaning up sites suspected of being contaminated with chemicals or radioactivity at Los Alamos National Laboratory. In this section we describe the purpose of the Environmental Remediation Project, our past efforts to communicate with the northern New Mexico community, and the events that brought about our realization that less traditional, more innovative approaches to public involvement are needed

Plan for increasing public participation in cleanup decisions for the Los Alamos National Laboratory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1995-01-01

This document describes a plan for involving the public in decisions related to cleaning up sites suspected of being contaminated with chemicals or radioactivity at Los Alamos National Laboratory. In this section we describe the purpose of the Environmental Remediation Project, our past efforts to communicate with the northern New Mexico community, and the events that brought about our realization that less traditional, more innovative approaches to public involvement are needed.

Decision-making: Theory and practice

OpenAIRE

SM Turpin; MA Marais

2004-01-01

This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, ...

Essentials of water systems design in the oil, gas, and chemical processing industries

CERN Document Server

Bahadori, Alireza; Boyd, Bill

2013-01-01

Essentials of Water Systems Design in the Oil, Gas and Chemical Processing Industries provides valuable insight for decision makers by outlining key technical considerations and requirements of four critical systems in industrial processing plants—water treatment systems, raw water and plant water systems, cooling water distribution and return systems, and fire water distribution and storage facilities. The authors identify the key technical issues and minimum requirements related to the process design and selection of various water supply systems used in the oil, gas, and chemical processing industries. This book is an ideal, multidisciplinary work for mechanical engineers, environmental scientists, and oil and gas process engineers.

Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

Stock of Naturalistic Decision Making," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 14, No. 5, 2001, pp. 331-352. Llinas, James, Ann Bisantz, Colin Drury ...on aided adversarial decisionmaking (Llinas, Bisantz, Drury , Song, and Jian, 1998). Cohen argues for a situation-specific trust model: The problem of...and P. Fishwick, eds., 2000, pp. 1739-1746. Camerer, Colin F., "Individual Decision Making," in John H. Kagel and Alvin E. Roth, eds., Handbook of

Decision making and cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P

2015-01-01

We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Disposal of chemical agents and munitions stored at Pueblo Depot Activity, Colorado. Final, Phase 1: Environmental report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Terry, J.W.; Blasing, T.J.; Ensminger, J.T.; Johnson, R.O.; Schexnayder, S.M.; Shor, J.T.; Staub, W.P.; Tolbert, V.R.; Zimmerman, G.P.

1995-04-01

Under the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program (CSDP), the US Army proposes to dispose of lethal chemical agents and munitions stored at eight existing Army installations in the continental United States. In 1988, the US Army issued the final programmatic environmental impact statement (FPEIS) for the CSDP. The FPEIS and the subsequent Record of Decision (ROD) identified an on-site disposal process as the preferred method for destruction of the stockpile. That is, the FPEIS determined the environmentally preferred alternative to be on-site disposal in high-temperature incinerators, while the ROD selected this alternative for implementation as the preferred method for destruction of the stockpile. In this Phase I report, the overall CSDP decision regarding disposal of the PUDA Stockpile is subjected to further analyses, and its validity at PUDA is reviewed with newer, more detailed data than those providing the basis for the conclusions in the FPEIS. The findings of this Phase I report will be factored into the scope of a site-specific environmental impact statement to be prepared for the destruction of the PUDA stockpile. The focus of this Phase I report is on those data identified as having the potential to alter the Army`s previous decision regarding disposal of the PUDA stockpile; however, several other factors beyond the scope of this Phase I report must also be acknowledged to have the potential to change or modify the Army`s decisions regarding PUDA.

Policy, practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: water and Cryptosporidium.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Zoë; Alcock, Ruth E; Christley, Robert M; Haygarth, Philip M; Heathwaite, A Louise; Latham, Sophia M; Mort, Maggie; Oliver, David M; Pickup, Roger; Wastling, Jonathan M; Wynne, Brian

2012-04-01

Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other

Organizational decision making

OpenAIRE

Grandori, Anna

2015-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...

Automated technical validation--a real time expert system for decision support.

Science.gov (United States)

de Graeve, J S; Cambus, J P; Gruson, A; Valdiguié, P M

1996-04-15

Dealing daily with various machines and various control specimens provides a lot of data that cannot be processed manually. In order to help decision-making we wrote specific software coping with the traditional QC, with patient data (mean of normals, delta check) and with criteria related to the analytical equipment (flags and alarms). Four machines (3 Ektachem 700 and 1 Hitachi 911) analysing 25 common chemical tests are controlled. Every day, three different control specimens and one more once a week (regional survey) are run on the various pieces of equipment. The data are collected on a 486 microcomputer connected to the central computer. For every parameter the standard deviation is compared with the published acceptable limits and the Westgard's rules are computed. The mean of normals is continuously monitored. The final decision induces either an alarm sound and the print-out of the cause of rejection or, if no alarms happen, the daily print-out of recorded data, with or without the Levey Jennings graphs.

Reimbursement decisions in health policy--extending our understanding of the elements of decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Wirtz, Veronika; Cribb, Alan; Barber, Nick

2005-09-08

Previous theoretical and empirical work on health policy decisions about reimbursement focuses on specific rationales such as effectiveness, economic considerations and equal access for equal needs. As reimbursement decisions take place in a social and political context we propose that the analysis of decision-making should incorporate factors, which go beyond those commonly discussed. As an example we chose three health technologies (sildenafil, rivastigmine and statins) to investigate how decisions about reimbursement of medicines are made in the United Kingdom National Health Service and what factors influence these decisions. From face-to-face, in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of 20 regional and national policy makers and stakeholders we identified two dimensions of decision-making, which extend beyond the rationales conventionally cited. The first dimension relates to the role of 'subjectivity' or 'the personal' in the decisions, including personal experiences of the condition and excitement about the novelty or potential benefit of the technology-these factors affect what counts as evidence, or how evidence is interpreted, in practice. The second dimension relates to the social and political function of decision-making and broadens what counts as the relevant ends of decision-making to include such things as maintaining relationships, avoiding organisational burden, generating politically and legally defensible decisions and demonstrating the willingness to care. More importantly, we will argue that these factors should not be treated as contaminants of an otherwise rational decision-making. On the contrary we suggest that they seem relevant, reasonable and also of substantial importance in considering in decision-making. Complementing the analysis of decision-making about reimbursement by incorporating these factors could increase our understanding and potentially improve decision-making.

NPD gate decision criteria - a consequence of strategic orientation or decision-maker expertise

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søndergård, Helle Alsted Søndergård; Jespersen, Kristina Risom

2008-01-01

criteria at the decision gates. Results from a sample of 132 NPD practitioners studied a simulated NPD process show that the importance of decision criteria is influenced by both the strategic orientation of the company and individual decision-making expertise. Especially the proactive and aggressive...... strategic orientations influence the prioritisation of decision criteria....

X-ray electron density investigation of chemical bonding in van der Waals materials

Science.gov (United States)

Kasai, Hidetaka; Tolborg, Kasper; Sist, Mattia; Zhang, Jiawei; Hathwar, Venkatesha R.; Filsø, Mette Ø.; Cenedese, Simone; Sugimoto, Kunihisa; Overgaard, Jacob; Nishibori, Eiji; Iversen, Bo B.

2018-03-01

Van der Waals (vdW) solids have attracted great attention ever since the discovery of graphene, with the essential feature being the weak chemical bonding across the vdW gap. The nature of these weak interactions is decisive for many extraordinary properties, but it is a strong challenge for current theory to accurately model long-range electron correlations. Here we use synchrotron X-ray diffraction data to precisely determine the electron density in the archetypal vdW solid, TiS2, and compare the results with density functional theory calculations. Quantitative agreement is observed for the chemical bonding description in the covalent TiS2 slabs, but significant differences are identified for the interactions across the gap, with experiment revealing more electron deformation than theory. The present data provide an experimental benchmark for testing theoretical models of weak chemical bonding.

Bridging the gap between academic research and regulatory health risk assessment of Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Beronius, Anna; Hanberg, Annika; Zilliacus, Johanna; Rudén, Christina

2014-12-01

Regulatory risk assessment is traditionally based primarily on toxicity studies conducted according to standardized and internationally validated test guidelines. However, health risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is argued to rely on the efficient integration of findings from academic research. The aim of this review was to provide an overview of current developments to facilitate the use of academic research in regulatory risk assessment of chemicals and how certain aspects of study design and reporting are particularly important for the risk assessment process. By bridging the gap between academic research and regulatory health risk assessment of EDCs, scientific uncertainty in risk assessment conclusions can be reduced, allowing for better targeted policy decisions for chemical risk reduction. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Marketing Decisions and Strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuada, John Ernest

The marketing literature generally assumes that managers and customers always make rational (reasonable and logical) decisions. In real life, however, decision making process is hardly rational and straight forward. Managers and customers normally make decisions “in-action” – i.e. as they grapple...... students a variety of decision making skills as they prepare themselves to work in international companies. This is the task initiated in this book. It discusses how managers combine both rational and non-rational approaches and tools in their decision making processes, especially in international business...

Developing Health-Based Pre-Planning Clearance Goals for Airport Remediation Following Chemical Terrorist Attack: Introduction and Key Assessment Considerations

OpenAIRE

Watson, Annetta; Hall, Linda; Raber, Ellen; Hauschild, Veronique D.; Dolislager, Fredrick; Love, Adam H.; Hanna, M. Leslie

2011-01-01

In the event of a chemical terrorist attack on a transportation hub, post-event remediation and restoration activities necessary to attain unrestricted facility reuse and re-entry could require hours to multiple days. While restoration timeframes are dependent on numerous variables, a primary controlling factor is the level of pre-planning and decision-making completed prior to chemical terrorist release. What follows is the first of a two-part analysis identifying key considerations, critica...

The Use of Chemical-Chemical Interaction and Chemical Structure to Identify New Candidate Chemicals Related to Lung Cancer.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Chen

Full Text Available Lung cancer causes over one million deaths every year worldwide. However, prevention and treatment methods for this serious disease are limited. The identification of new chemicals related to lung cancer may aid in disease prevention and the design of more effective treatments. This study employed a weighted network, constructed using chemical-chemical interaction information, to identify new chemicals related to two types of lung cancer: non-small lung cancer and small-cell lung cancer. Then, a randomization test as well as chemical-chemical interaction and chemical structure information were utilized to make further selections. A final analysis of these new chemicals in the context of the current literature indicates that several chemicals are strongly linked to lung cancer.

Decision-making: Theory and practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SM Turpin

2004-12-01

Full Text Available This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, and the use of intuition. In terms of the use of decision support technology, the use of self-help tools, such as office software, was clearly favoured.

Ethical decision making

OpenAIRE

Zsolnai, László

2011-01-01

The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...

Errors in Aviation Decision Making: Bad Decisions or Bad Luck?

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Martin, Lynne; Davison, Jeannie; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.

Decision taking as a service

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergstra, J.A.

2012-01-01

Decision taking can be performed as a service to other parties and it is amenable to outtasking rather than to outsourcing. Outtasking decision taking is compatible with selfsourcing of decision making activities carried out in preparation of decision taking. Decision taking as a service (DTaaS) is

Rule-based decision making model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sirola, Miki

1998-01-01

A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

Advances in the application of decision theory to test-based decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Linden, Willem J.

This paper reviews recent research in the Netherlands on the application of decision theory to test-based decision making about personnel selection and student placement. The review is based on an earlier model proposed for the classification of decision problems, and emphasizes an empirical

Decision Accuracy in Computer-Mediated versus Face-to-Face Decision-Making Teams.

Science.gov (United States)

Hedlund; Ilgen; Hollenbeck

1998-10-01

Changes in the way organizations are structured and advances in communication technologies are two factors that have altered the conditions under which group decisions are made. Decisions are increasingly made by teams that have a hierarchical structure and whose members have different areas of expertise. In addition, many decisions are no longer made via strictly face-to-face interaction. The present study examines the effects of two modes of communication (face-to-face or computer-mediated) on the accuracy of teams' decisions. The teams are characterized by a hierarchical structure and their members differ in expertise consistent with the framework outlined in the Multilevel Theory of team decision making presented by Hollenbeck, Ilgen, Sego, Hedlund, Major, and Phillips (1995). Sixty-four four-person teams worked for 3 h on a computer simulation interacting either face-to-face (FtF) or over a computer network. The communication mode had mixed effects on team processes in that members of FtF teams were better informed and made recommendations that were more predictive of the correct team decision, but leaders of CM teams were better able to differentiate staff members on the quality of their decisions. Controlling for the negative impact of FtF communication on staff member differentiation increased the beneficial effect of the FtF mode on overall decision making accuracy. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

Application of Bayesian network and multi-criteria decision analysis to risk-based design of chemical plants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khakzad Rostami, N.; Reniers, G.L.L.M.E.

2016-01-01

Fires and explosions in chemical plants are still among the major accidents threatening human lives and causing huge asset losses. Although might not completely be eliminated, the risks of such accidents can be reduced by allocating safety measures, applying inherently safer design (ISD) methods,

Family Communication about End-of-Life Decisions and the Enactment of the Decision-Maker Role

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

April R. Trees

2017-06-01

Full Text Available End-of-life (EOL decisions in families are complex and emotional sites of family interaction necessitating family members coordinate roles in the EOL decision-making process. How family members in the United States enact the decision-maker role in EOL decision situations was examined through in-depth interviews with 22 individuals who participated in EOL decision-making for a family member. A number of themes emerged from the data with regard to the enactment of the decision-maker role. Families varied in how decision makers enacted the role in relation to collective family input, with consulting, informing and collaborating as different patterns of behavior. Formal family roles along with gender- and age-based roles shaped who took on the decision-maker role. Additionally, both family members and medical professionals facilitated or undermined the decision-maker’s role enactment. Understanding the structure and enactment of the decision-maker role in family interaction provides insight into how individuals and/or family members perform the decision-making role within a cultural context that values autonomy and self-determination in combination with collective family action in EOL decision-making.

Temporal characteristics of decisions in hospital encounters: a threshold for shared decision making? A qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ofstad, Eirik H; Frich, Jan C; Schei, Edvin; Frankel, Richard M; Gulbrandsen, Pål

2014-11-01

To identify and characterize physicians' statements that contained evidence of clinically relevant decisions in encounters with patients in different hospital settings. Qualitative analysis of 50 videotaped encounters from wards, the emergency room (ER) and outpatient clinics in a department of internal medicine at a Norwegian university hospital. Clinical decisions could be grouped in a temporal order: decisions which had already been made, and were brought into the encounter by the physician (preformed decisions), decisions made in the present (here-and-now decisions), and decisions prescribing future actions given a certain course of events (conditional decisions). Preformed decisions were a hallmark in the ward and conditional decisions a main feature of ER encounters. Clinical decisions related to a patient-physician encounter spanned a time frame exceeding the duration of the encounter. While a distribution of decisions over time and space fosters sharing and dilution of responsibility between providers, it makes the decision making process hard to access for patients. In order to plan when and how to involve patients in decisions, physicians need increased awareness of when clinical decisions are made, who usually makes them, and who should make them. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

MISTRAL: A game-theoretical model to allocate security measures in a multi-modal chemical transportation network with adaptive adversaries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talarico, Luca; Reniers, Genserik; Sörensen, Kenneth; Springael, Johan

2015-01-01

In this paper we present a multi-modal security-transportation model to allocate security resources within a chemical supply chain which is characterized by the use of different transport modes, each having their own security features. We consider security-related risks so as to take measures against terrorist acts which could target critical transportation systems. The idea of addressing security-related issues, by supporting decisions for preventing or mitigating intentional acts on transportation infrastructure, has gained attention in academic research only recently. The decision model presented in this paper is based on game theory and it can be employed to organize intelligence capabilities aimed at securing chemical supply chains. It enables detection and warning against impending attacks on transportation infrastructures and the subsequent adoption of security countermeasures. This is of extreme importance for preventing terrorist attacks and for avoiding (possibly huge) human and economic losses. In our work we also provide data sources and numerical simulations by applying the proposed model to a illustrative multi-modal chemical supply chain. - Highlights: • A model to increase the security in a multimodal chemical supply chain is proposed. • The model considers adaptive opponents having multi-attribute utility functions. • The model is based on game theory using an attacker–defender schema. • The model provides recommendations about where to allocate security measures. • Numerical simulations on a sample multimodal chemical supply chain are shown

Effective decision making 10 steps to better decision making and problem solving

CERN Document Server

Kourdi, Jeremy

2011-01-01

Decisions and problems can often leave people with a dilemma: knowing that a decision is required, but uncertain how to ensure that it is the best one and that it will be successfully executed. The paradox is that the very pressure for a decision often breeds indecisiveness.

Decision Performance Using Spatial Decision Support Systems: A Geospatial Reasoning Ability Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Erskine, Michael A.

2013-01-01

As many consumer and business decision makers are utilizing Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS), a thorough understanding of how such decisions are made is crucial for the information systems domain. This dissertation presents six chapters encompassing a comprehensive analysis of the impact of geospatial reasoning ability on…

Toxicology research for precautionary decision-making and the role of Human & Experimental Toxicology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grandjean, P

2015-01-01

being the strict criteria for scientific proof usually required for decision-making in regard to prevention. The present study ascertains the coverage of environmental chemicals in four volumes of Human & Experimental Toxicology and the presentation and interpretation of research findings in published...... is particularly prone to bias because of the known paucity of false positives and, in particular, the existence of a vast number of toxic hazards which by default are considered innocuous due to lack of documentation. The Precautionary Principle could inspire decision-making on the basis of incomplete...... articles. Links in SciFinder showed that the 530 articles published in four selected volumes between 1984 and 2014 primarily dealt with metals (126 links) and other toxicants that have received substantial attention in the past. Thirteen compounds identified by US authorities in 2006 as high...

Dual Criteria Decisions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

2014-01-01

The most popular models of decision making use a single criterion to evaluate projects or lotteries. However, decision makers may actually consider multiple criteria when evaluating projects. We consider a dual criteria model from psychology. This model integrates the familiar tradeoffs between...... to the clear role that income thresholds play in such decision making, but does not rule out a role for tradeoffs between risk and utility or probability weighting....

High-throughput migration modelling for estimating exposure to chemicals in food packaging in screening and prioritization tools

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ernstoff, Alexi S; Fantke, Peter; Huang, Lei

2017-01-01

Specialty software and simplified models are often used to estimate migration of potentially toxic chemicals from packaging into food. Current models, however, are not suitable for emerging applications in decision-support tools, e.g. in Life Cycle Assessment and risk-based screening and prioriti...... to uncertainty and dramatically decreased model performance (R2 = 0.4, Se = 1). In all, this study provides a rapid migration modelling approach to estimate exposure to chemicals in food packaging for emerging screening and prioritization approaches....

A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task.

Science.gov (United States)

Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

2017-12-01

The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159-182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of word-likeness evidence for both words and non-words. The Retrieving Effectively from Memory model of Lexical-Decision (REM-LD; Wagenmakers et al., Cognitive Psychology, 48(3), 332-367, 2004) provides a comprehensive explanation of lexical-decision data and makes the prediction that word-likeness evidence is more variable for words than non-words and that higher frequency words are more variable than lower frequency words. To test these predictions, we analyzed five lexical-decision data sets with the DDM. For all data sets, drift-rate variability changed across word frequency and non-word conditions. For the most part, REM-LD's predictions about the ordering of evidence variability across stimuli in the lexical-decision task were confirmed.

Presence of chemical additives and microbial inhibition capacity in grapefruit seed extracts used in apiculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Spinosi, Valerio; Semprini, Primula; Langella, Vincenzo; Scortichini, Giampiero; Calvarese, Silvano

2007-01-01

American foulbrood, caused by Paenibacillus larvae subsp. larvae (White 1906) is one of the most serious diseases of honey bees, causing beekeepers and health workers to make difficult, complex decisions and leading to the development of 'organic' treatments, such as grapefruit seed extract, with minor residue problems in the end product. This study evaluates the chemical composition of grapefruit seed extracts using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry for the detection of benzethonium chloride, cetrimonium bromide and decyltrimethylammonium chloride. The results obtained suggest a close correlation between the microbial effect and the presence of chemical additives in the samples analysed.

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

When Family Considerations Influence Work Decisions: Decision-Making Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Gary N.; Greenhaus, Jeffrey H.

2012-01-01

The work-family literature has provided an abundance of evidence that various family factors are linked to various work decisions, suggesting that the "family-relatedness" of work decisions is a prevalent phenomenon (Greenhaus & Powell, 2012). However, the cognitive processes by which such linkages occur have received little attention. We offer a…

Characterising bias in regulatory risk and decision analysis: An analysis of heuristics applied in health technology appraisal, chemicals regulation, and climate change governance.

Science.gov (United States)

MacGillivray, Brian H

2017-08-01

In many environmental and public health domains, heuristic methods of risk and decision analysis must be relied upon, either because problem structures are ambiguous, reliable data is lacking, or decisions are urgent. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty beyond model and measurement error - uncertainty stemming from relying on inexact inference rules. Here we identify and analyse heuristics used to prioritise risk objects, to discriminate between signal and noise, to weight evidence, to construct models, to extrapolate beyond datasets, and to make policy. Some of these heuristics are based on causal generalisations, yet can misfire when these relationships are presumed rather than tested (e.g. surrogates in clinical trials). Others are conventions designed to confer stability to decision analysis, yet which may introduce serious error when applied ritualistically (e.g. significance testing). Some heuristics can be traced back to formal justifications, but only subject to strong assumptions that are often violated in practical applications. Heuristic decision rules (e.g. feasibility rules) in principle act as surrogates for utility maximisation or distributional concerns, yet in practice may neglect costs and benefits, be based on arbitrary thresholds, and be prone to gaming. We highlight the problem of rule-entrenchment, where analytical choices that are in principle contestable are arbitrarily fixed in practice, masking uncertainty and potentially introducing bias. Strategies for making risk and decision analysis more rigorous include: formalising the assumptions and scope conditions under which heuristics should be applied; testing rather than presuming their underlying empirical or theoretical justifications; using sensitivity analysis, simulations, multiple bias analysis, and deductive systems of inference (e.g. directed acyclic graphs) to characterise rule uncertainty and refine heuristics; adopting "recovery schemes" to correct for known biases

Decision table languages and systems

CERN Document Server

Metzner, John R

1977-01-01

ACM Monograph Series: Decision Table Languages and Systems focuses on linguistic examination of decision tables and survey of the features of existing decision table languages and systems. The book first offers information on semiotics, programming language features, and generalization. Discussions focus on semantic broadening, outer language enrichments, generalization of syntax, limitations, implementation improvements, syntactic and semantic features, decision table syntax, semantics of decision table languages, and decision table programming languages. The text then elaborates on design im

Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

2011-06-01

Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Kidney Transplant Decision.

Science.gov (United States)

Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P; Kaplan, Bruce

2016-03-01

A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist health care professionals with decision making tasks. A well-developed CDSS weighs the benefits of therapy versus the cost in terms of loss of quality of life and financial loss and recommends the decision that can be expected to provide maximum overall benefit. This article provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks, such CDSS can help with the often complex decisions involving transplants. First, we review Bayes theorem in the context of medical decision making. Then, we introduce Bayesian networks, which can model probabilistic relationships among many related variables and are based on Bayes theorem. Next, we discuss influence diagrams, which are Bayesian networks augmented with decision and value nodes and which can be used to develop CDSSs that are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of using the Kidney Donor Risk Index as the sole decision tool. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models generalized kidney transplant decisions and show how the influence diagram approach can provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool.

LCA of Chemicals and Chemical Products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fantke, Peter; Ernstoff, Alexi

2018-01-01

This chapter focuses on the application of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate the environmental performance of chemicals as well as of products and processes where chemicals play a key role. The life cycle stages of chemical products, such as pharmaceuticals drugs or plant protection products......, are discussed and differentiated into extraction of abiotic and biotic raw materials, chemical synthesis and processing, material processing, product manufacturing, professional or consumer product use, and finally end-of-life . LCA is discussed in relation to other chemicals management frameworks and concepts...... including risk assessment , green and sustainable chemistry , and chemical alternatives assessment. A large number of LCA studies focus on contrasting different feedstocks or chemical synthesis processes, thereby often conducting a cradle to (factory) gate assessment. While typically a large share...

Nuclear regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

2011-01-01

The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

Predicting the probability of mortality of gastric cancer patients using decision tree.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammadzadeh, F; Noorkojuri, H; Pourhoseingholi, M A; Saadat, S; Baghestani, A R

2015-06-01

Gastric cancer is the fourth most common cancer worldwide. This reason motivated us to investigate and introduce gastric cancer risk factors utilizing statistical methods. The aim of this study was to identify the most important factors influencing the mortality of patients who suffer from gastric cancer disease and to introduce a classification approach according to decision tree model for predicting the probability of mortality from this disease. Data on 216 patients with gastric cancer, who were registered in Taleghani hospital in Tehran,Iran, were analyzed. At first, patients were divided into two groups: the dead and alive. Then, to fit decision tree model to our data, we randomly selected 20% of dataset to the test sample and remaining dataset considered as the training sample. Finally, the validity of the model examined with sensitivity, specificity, diagnosis accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The CART version 6.0 and SPSS version 19.0 softwares were used for the analysis of the data. Diabetes, ethnicity, tobacco, tumor size, surgery, pathologic stage, age at diagnosis, exposure to chemical weapons and alcohol consumption were determined as effective factors on mortality of gastric cancer. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of decision tree were 0.72, 0.75 and 0.74 respectively. The indices of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy represented that the decision tree model has acceptable accuracy to prediction the probability of mortality in gastric cancer patients. So a simple decision tree consisted of factors affecting on mortality of gastric cancer may help clinicians as a reliable and practical tool to predict the probability of mortality in these patients.

A rough set approach for determining weights of decision makers in group decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Qiang; Du, Ping-An; Wang, Yong; Liang, Bin

2017-01-01

This study aims to present a novel approach for determining the weights of decision makers (DMs) based on rough group decision in multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems. First, we construct a rough group decision matrix from all DMs' decision matrixes on the basis of rough set theory. After that, we derive a positive ideal solution (PIS) founded on the average matrix of rough group decision, and negative ideal solutions (NISs) founded on the lower and upper limit matrixes of rough group decision. Then, we obtain the weight of each group member and priority order of alternatives by using relative closeness method, which depends on the distances from each individual group member' decision to the PIS and NISs. Through comparisons with existing methods and an on-line business manager selection example, the proposed method show that it can provide more insights into the subjectivity and vagueness of DMs' evaluations and selections.

Computerized operator decision aids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, A.B.

1984-01-01

This article explores the potential benefits associated with the use of computers in nuclear plants by the operating crew as an aid in making decisions. Pertinent findings are presented from recently completed projects to establish the context in which operating decisions have to be made. Key factors influencing the decision-making process itself are also identified. Safety parameter display systems, which are being implemented in various forms by the nuclear industry, are described within the context of decision making. In addition, relevant worldwide research and development activities are examined as potential enhancements to computerized operator decision aids to further improve plant safety and availability

Managing a reservoir-based hydro-energy plant: building understanding in the buy and sell decisions in a changing environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ackere, A. van; Ruud, Morten; Davidsen, Paal

2005-01-01

This paper describes a modelling process at a Norwegian chemical producer, who owns 20% of a reservoir based hydro-energy plant. While the initial objective was to increase the profitability of the energy plant (in particular by an improved understanding of buying and selling decisions and a reconciliation of the managerial and engineering points of view in the context of a liberalised energy market) the process resulted in the company's decision to refocus on its core-business. The process illustrates how a modelling process can lead to a fundamental re framing of the issue, resulting in major change for the company

Decision Making in the Airplane

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

Intelligent Decision Technologies : Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Intelligent Decision Technologies

CERN Document Server

Watanabe, Toyohide; Phillips-Wren, Gloria; Howlett, Robert; Jain, Lakhmi

2012-01-01

The Intelligent Decision Technologies (IDT) International Conference encourages an interchange of research on intelligent systems and intelligent technologies that enhance or improve decision making. The focus of IDT is interdisciplinary and includes research on all aspects of intelligent decision technologies, from fundamental development to real applications. IDT has the potential to expand their support of decision making in such areas as finance, accounting, marketing, healthcare, medical and diagnostic systems, military decisions, production and operation, networks, traffic management, crisis response, human-machine interfaces, financial and stock market monitoring and prediction, and robotics. Intelligent decision systems implement advances in intelligent agents, fuzzy logic, multi-agent systems, artificial neural networks, and genetic algorithms, among others.  Emerging areas of active research include virtual decision environments, social networking, 3D human-machine interfaces, cognitive interfaces,...

Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

Science.gov (United States)

Flaming, Susan C.

2007-12-01

The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eroğlu Başak

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.

Intelligent Decision Support in Proportional–Stop-Loss Reinsurance Using Multiple Attribute Decision-Making (MADM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shirley Jie Xuan Wang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This article addresses the possibility of incorporating intelligent decision support systems into reinsurance decision-making. This involves the insurance company and the reinsurance company, and is negotiated through reinsurance intermediaries. The article proposes a decision flow to model the reinsurance design and selection process. This article focuses on adopting more than one optimality criteria under a more generic combinational design of commonly used reinsurance products, i.e., proportional reinsurance and stop-loss reinsurance. In terms of methodology, the significant contribution of the study the incorporation of the well-established decision analysis tool multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM into the modelling of reinsurance selection. To illustrate the feasibility of incorporating intelligent decision supporting systems in the reinsurance market, the study includes a numerical case study using the simulation software @Risk in modeling insurance claims, as well as programming in MATLAB to realize MADM. A list of managerial implications could be drawn from the case study results. Most importantly, when choosing the most appropriate type of reinsurance, insurance companies should base their decisions on multiple measurements instead of single-criteria decision-making models so that their decisions may be more robust.

Allium-test as a tool for toxicity testing of environmental radioactive-chemical mixtures

Science.gov (United States)

Oudalova, A. A.; Geras'kin, S. A.; Dikareva, N. S.; Pyatkova, S. V.

2017-01-01

Bioassay-based approaches have been propagated to assess toxicity of unknown mixtures of environmental contaminants, but it was rarely applied in cases of chemicals with radionuclides combinations. Two Allium-test studies were performed to assess environmental impact from potential sources of combined radioactive-chemical pollution. Study sites were located at nuclear waste storage facilities in European and in Far-Eastern parts of Russia. As environmental media under impact, waters from monitor wells and nearby water bodies were tested. Concentrations of some chemicals and radionuclides in the samples collected enhanced the permitted limits. Cytogenetic and cytotoxic effects were used as biological endpoints, namely, frequency and spectrum of chromosome aberrations and mitotic abnormalities in anatelophase cells as well as mitotic activity in Allium root tips. Sample points were revealed where waters have an enhanced mutagenic potential. The findings obtained could be used to optimize monitoring system and advance decision making on management and rehabilitation of industrial sites. The Allium-test could be recommended and applied as an effective tool for toxicity testing in case of combined contamination of environmental compartments with radionuclides and chemical compounds.

Human factors influencing decision making

OpenAIRE

Jacobs, Patricia A.

1998-01-01

This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

[Interoception and decision-making].

Science.gov (United States)

Ohira, Hideki

2015-02-01

We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.

An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Categorizing Weather Products and Decision Aids

Science.gov (United States)

Elgin, Peter D.; Thomas, Rickey P.

2004-01-01

The National Airspace System s capacity will experience considerable growth in the next few decades. Weather adversely affects safe air travel. The FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies that display weather information to support situation awareness and optimize pilot decision-making in avoiding hazardous weather. Understanding situation awareness and naturalistic decision-making is an important step in achieving this goal. Information representation and situation time stress greatly influence attentional resource allocation and working memory capacity, potentially obstructing accurate situation awareness assessments. Three naturalistic decision-making theories were integrated to provide an understanding of the levels of decision making incorporated in three operational situations and two conditions. The task characteristics associated with each phase of flight govern the level of situation awareness attained and the decision making processes utilized. Weather product s attributes and situation task characteristics combine to classify weather products according to the decision-making processes best supported. In addition, a graphical interface is described that affords intuitive selection of the appropriate weather product relative to the pilot s current flight situation.

An extension of fuzzy decision maps for multi-criteria decision-making

OpenAIRE

Elomda, Basem Mohamed; Hefny, Hesham Ahmed; Hassan, Hesham Ahmed

2013-01-01

This paper presents a new extension to Fuzzy Decision Maps (FDMs) by allowing use of fuzzy linguistic values to represent relative importance among criteria in the preference matrix as well as representing relative influence among criteria for computing the steady-state matrix in the stage of Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM). The proposed model is called the Linguistic Fuzzy Decision Networks (LFDNs). The proposed LFDN provides considerable flexibility to decision makers when solving real world Mult...

Do Group Decision Rules Affect Trust? A Laboratory Experiment on Group Decision Rules and Trust

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Julie Hassing

2016-01-01

Enhanced participation has been prescribed as the way forward for improving democratic decision making while generating positive attributes like trust. Yet we do not know the extent to which rules affect the outcome of decision making. This article investigates how different group decision rules......-hierarchical decision-making procedures enhance trust vis-à-vis other more hierarchical decision-making procedures....... affect group trust by testing three ideal types of decision rules (i.e., a Unilateral rule, a Representative rule and a 'Non-rule') in a laboratory experiment. The article shows significant differences between the three decision rules on trust after deliberation. Interestingly, however, it finds...

Modelling decision-making by pilots

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

1993-01-01

Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).

Decision Exploration Lab : A Visual Analytics Solution for Decision Management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broeksema, Bertjan; Baudel, Thomas; Telea, Alex; Crisafulli, Paolo

2013-01-01

We present a visual analytics solution designed to address prevalent issues in the area of Operational Decision Management (ODM). In ODM, which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence (Expert Systems) and Management Science, it is increasingly important to align business decisions with business

Shared Decisions That Count.

Science.gov (United States)

Schlechty, Phillip C.

1993-01-01

Advocates of participatory leadership, site-based management, and decentralization often assume that changing decision-making group composition will automatically improve the quality of decisions being made. Stakeholder satisfaction does not guarantee quality results. This article offers a framework for moving the decision-making discussion from…

Role of decision-tree analysis in the performance of a complex feasibility study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dworkin, D.; Sarkar, A.; Motwani, J.

1991-01-01

This report presents the results of the Feasibility Study (FS) of a National Priorities List (NPL) site in New Jersey and the decision tree that made this FS possible. The development of the decision tree and the remedial action alternatives that address the hazards at the site are presented. The FS efforts were performed in accordance with U.S. EPA guidance under the authority of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) as amended by the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986 (SARA). A Record of Decision (ROD) is expected in mid-1990. The subject site, the Myers Property site in Franklin Township, New Jersey, has been owned by several individuals and companies since 1811. Uses have included the production of DDT. A Remedial Investigation (RI) was performed by WESTON, the lead technical firm for this feasibility study, which identified soils/sediments, groundwater and buildings on the site as areas of concern. The major chemicals of concern are DDT and its metabolites, polynuclear aromatic compounds, various chlorinated benzenes, dioxin/furan homologues and heavy metals such as arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, chromium and nickel. While this FS was developed in accordance with current CERCLA FS guidance and procedures, it was expanded to accommodate several outstanding technical and policy issues. Outstanding technical issues focused on uncertainties with respect to hydrogeologic conditions, and policy issues centered upon the development of the site-specific remedial action goals. A decision tree was established to facilitate the development of remedial strategies. The decision tree formed the basis for the FS and allowed remedial alternatives to be identified and evaluated based on key policy decisions. Site media were addressed as contaminated soils/sediments, groundwater and the on-site buildings

Developing Health-Based Pre-Planning Clearance Goals for Airport Remediation Following Chemical Terrorist Attack: Introduction and Key Assessment Considerations

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Annetta; Hall, Linda; Raber, Ellen; Hauschild, Veronique D.; Dolislager, Fredrick; Love, Adam H.; Hanna, M. Leslie

2011-01-01

In the event of a chemical terrorist attack on a transportation hub, post-event remediation and restoration activities necessary to attain unrestricted facility reuse and re-entry could require hours to multiple days. While restoration timeframes are dependent on numerous variables, a primary controlling factor is the level of pre-planning and decision-making completed prior to chemical terrorist release. What follows is the first of a two-part analysis identifying key considerations, critical information, and decision criteria to facilitate post-attack and post-decontamination consequence management activities. A conceptual site model and human health-based exposure guidelines are developed and reported as an aid to site-specific pre-planning in the current absence of U.S. state or Federal values designated as compound-specific remediation or re-entry concentrations, and to safely expedite facility recovery to full operational status. Chemicals of concern include chemical warfare nerve and vesicant agents and the toxic industrial compounds phosgene, hydrogen cyanide, and cyanogen chloride. This work has been performed as a national case study conducted in partnership with the Los Angeles International Airport and The Bradley International Terminal. All recommended guidelines have been selected for consistency with airport scenario release parameters of a one-time, short-duration, finite airborne release from a single source followed by compound-specific decontamination. PMID:21390292

Developing Health-Based Pre-Planning Clearance Goals for Airport Remediation Following Chemical Terrorist Attack: Introduction and Key Assessment Considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Annetta; Hall, Linda; Raber, Ellen; Hauschild, Veronique D; Dolislager, Fredrick; Love, Adam H; Hanna, M Leslie

2011-02-13

In the event of a chemical terrorist attack on a transportation hub, post-event remediation and restoration activities necessary to attain unrestricted facility reuse and re-entry could require hours to multiple days. While restoration timeframes are dependent on numerous variables, a primary controlling factor is the level of pre-planning and decision-making completed prior to chemical terrorist release. What follows is the first of a two-part analysis identifying key considerations, critical information, and decision criteria to facilitate post-attack and post-decontamination consequence management activities. A conceptual site model and human health-based exposure guidelines are developed and reported as an aid to site-specific pre-planning in the current absence of U.S. state or Federal values designated as compound-specific remediation or re-entry concentrations, and to safely expedite facility recovery to full operational status. Chemicals of concern include chemical warfare nerve and vesicant agents and the toxic industrial compounds phosgene, hydrogen cyanide, and cyanogen chloride. This work has been performed as a national case study conducted in partnership with the Los Angeles International Airport and The Bradley International Terminal. All recommended guidelines have been selected for consistency with airport scenario release parameters of a one-time, short-duration, finite airborne release from a single source followed by compound-specific decontamination.

Decisions and desire.

Science.gov (United States)

Morse, Gardiner

2006-01-01

When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them.

Structured decision making: Chapter 5

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III

2013-01-01

Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

Science.gov (United States)

Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

2015-06-01

Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teachers' Grading Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

2017-01-01

This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

An operational centre for managing major chemical industrial accidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiranoudis, C T; Kourniotis, S P; Christolis, M; Markatos, N C; Zografos, K G; Giannouli, I M; Androutsopoulos, K N; Ziomas, I; Kosmidis, E; Simeonidis, P; Poupkou, N

2002-01-28

The most important characteristic of major chemical accidents, from a societal perspective, is their tendency to produce off-site effects. The extent and severity of the accident may significantly affect the population and the environment of the adjacent areas. Following an accident event, effort should be made to limit such effects. Management decisions should be based on rational and quantitative information based on the site specific circumstances and the possible consequences. To produce such information we have developed an operational centre for managing large-scale industrial accidents. Its architecture involves an integrated framework of geographical information system (GIS) and RDBMS technology systems equipped with interactive communication capabilities. The operational centre was developed for Windows 98 platforms, for the region of Thriasion Pedion of West Attica, where the concentration of industrial activity and storage of toxic chemical is immense within areas of high population density. An appropriate case study is given in order to illuminate the use and necessity of the operational centre.

Tools for collaborative decision-making

CERN Document Server

Zaraté, Pascale

2013-01-01

Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...

Enhancing shared decision making through assessment of patient-clinician concordance on decision quality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Selby, Warwick; Salkeld, Glenn

to quantify, document, and suggest how future dyadic decisions can be enhanced by criterion prioritisation. Associations between patient’s MDQ-W before, and MDQ-R after consultation with their clinician were analysed along with patient scores from the Satisfaction With Decision (SWD) instrument. Results...... and clinician using the dually-personalised decomposable MyDecisionQuality (MDQ) instrument. This has the potential to guide future work on optimising dyad-specific patient-clinician communication for shared decision making and informed consent....

Viewpoint: Decision-making in committees

OpenAIRE

Li Hao; Wing Suen

2009-01-01

This article reviews recent developments in the theory of committee decision-making. A committee consists of self-interested members who make a public decision by aggregating imperfect information dispersed among them according to a pre-specified decision rule. We focus on costly information acquisition, strategic information aggregation, and rules and processes that enhance the quality of the committee decision. Seeming inefficiencies of the committee decision-making process such as over-cau...

Decision support systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, L.N.; Noe, E.; Langvad, A.M.

2007-01-01

system Crop Protection Online is widely used by advisors and as a learning tool for students. Although the system has been validated in many field trials over the years and has shown reliable results, the number of end-users among farmers has been relatively low during the last 10 years (approximately...... 1000 farmers). A sociological investigation of farmers' decision-making styles in the area of crop protection has shown that arable farmers can be divided into three major groups: (a) system-orientated farmers, (b) experience-based farmers and (c) advisory-orientated farmers. The information required...... by these three groups to make their decisions varies and therefore different ways of using decision support systems need to be provided. Decision support systems need to be developed in close dialogue and collaboration with user groups....

THE SECOND GENERATION OF THE WASTE REDUCTION (WAR) ALGORITHM: A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR GREENER CHEMICAL PROCESSES

Science.gov (United States)

chemical process designers using simulation software generate alternative designs for one process. One criterion for evaluating these designs is their potential for adverse environmental impacts due to waste generated, energy consumed, and possibilities for fugitive emissions. Co...

Regret in repeat purchase versus switching decisions : The attenuating role of decision justifiability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Inman, J.J.; Zeelenberg, M.

2002-01-01

The decision-making literature has consistently reported that decisions to maintain the status quo tend to be regretted less than decisions to change it. We examine the consequences of repeat purchasing (maintaining the status quo) versus switching in the context of information regarding the reason

A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F.; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

2017-01-01

The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159–182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of

Knowns and unknowns on burden of disease due to chemicals: a systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bertollini Roberto

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Continuous exposure to many chemicals, including through air, water, food, or other media and products results in health impacts which have been well assessed, however little is known about the total disease burden related to chemicals. This is important to know for overall policy actions and priorities. In this article the known burden related to selected chemicals or their mixtures, main data gaps, and the link to public health policy are reviewed. Methods A systematic review of the literature for global burden of disease estimates from chemicals was conducted. Global disease due to chemicals was estimated using standard methodology of the Global Burden of Disease. Results In total, 4.9 million deaths (8.3% of total and 86 million Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs (5.7% of total were attributable to environmental exposure and management of selected chemicals in 2004. The largest contributors include indoor smoke from solid fuel use, outdoor air pollution and second-hand smoke, with 2.0, 1.2 and 0.6 million deaths annually. These are followed by occupational particulates, chemicals involved in acute poisonings, and pesticides involved in self-poisonings, with 375,000, 240,000 and 186,000 annual deaths, respectively. Conclusions The known burden due to chemicals is considerable. This information supports decision-making in programmes having a role to play in reducing human exposure to toxic chemicals. These figures present only a number of chemicals for which data are available, therefore, they are more likely an underestimate of the actual burden. Chemicals with known health effects, such as dioxins, cadmium, mercury or chronic exposure to pesticides could not be included in this article due to incomplete data and information. Effective public health interventions are known to manage chemicals and limit their public health impacts and should be implemented at national and international levels.

Knowns and unknowns on burden of disease due to chemicals: a systematic review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Continuous exposure to many chemicals, including through air, water, food, or other media and products results in health impacts which have been well assessed, however little is known about the total disease burden related to chemicals. This is important to know for overall policy actions and priorities. In this article the known burden related to selected chemicals or their mixtures, main data gaps, and the link to public health policy are reviewed. Methods A systematic review of the literature for global burden of disease estimates from chemicals was conducted. Global disease due to chemicals was estimated using standard methodology of the Global Burden of Disease. Results In total, 4.9 million deaths (8.3% of total) and 86 million Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) (5.7% of total) were attributable to environmental exposure and management of selected chemicals in 2004. The largest contributors include indoor smoke from solid fuel use, outdoor air pollution and second-hand smoke, with 2.0, 1.2 and 0.6 million deaths annually. These are followed by occupational particulates, chemicals involved in acute poisonings, and pesticides involved in self-poisonings, with 375,000, 240,000 and 186,000 annual deaths, respectively. Conclusions The known burden due to chemicals is considerable. This information supports decision-making in programmes having a role to play in reducing human exposure to toxic chemicals. These figures present only a number of chemicals for which data are available, therefore, they are more likely an underestimate of the actual burden. Chemicals with known health effects, such as dioxins, cadmium, mercury or chronic exposure to pesticides could not be included in this article due to incomplete data and information. Effective public health interventions are known to manage chemicals and limit their public health impacts and should be implemented at national and international levels. PMID:21255392

Including Life Cycle Assessment for decision-making in controlling wastewater nutrient removal systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Corominas, Lluís; Larsen, Henrik Fred; Flores-Alsina, Xavier

2013-01-01

This paper focuses on the use of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate the performance of seventeen control strategies in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). It tackles the importance of using site-specific factors for nutrient enrichment when decision-makers have to select best operating....../or energy savings present an environmental benefit for N&P and P-deficient systems. This is not the case when addressing N-deficient systems for which the use of chemicals (even for improving N removal efficiencies) is not always beneficial for the environment. A sensitivity analysis on using weighting...... of the impact categories is conducted to assess how value choices (policy decisions) may affect the management of WWTPs. For the scenarios with only N-limitation, the LCA-based ranking of the control strategies is sensitive to the choice of weighting factors, whereas this is not the case for N&P or P...

Decisive Markov Chains

OpenAIRE

Abdulla, Parosh Aziz; Henda, Noomene Ben; Mayr, Richard

2007-01-01

We consider qualitative and quantitative verification problems for infinite-state Markov chains. We call a Markov chain decisive w.r.t. a given set of target states F if it almost certainly eventually reaches either F or a state from which F can no longer be reached. While all finite Markov chains are trivially decisive (for every set F), this also holds for many classes of infinite Markov chains. Infinite Markov chains which contain a finite attractor are decisive w.r.t. every set F. In part...

Risk-based emergency decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koerte, Jens

2003-01-01

In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

The physico-chemical radioiodine species in the exhaust air of a pressurized water reactor (PWR2)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deuber, H.

1981-12-01

In a German pressurized water reactor, the physico-chemical 131 I species were determined in the plant exhaust and in the individual exhausts during 6 months. These measurements aimed in particular at determining the percentage and the source of the radiologically decisive elemental 131 I released to the environment. The retention of the 131 I species by iodine filters was also investigated. 20 to 30% of the 131 I discharged with the plant exhaust consisted of elemental iodine. This was largely released with the unfiltered exhaust from the chemical laboratory hoods and from the annular compartment. (orig.) [de

How decision reversibility affects motivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bullens, Lottie; van Harreveld, Frenk; Förster, Jens; Higgins, Tory E

2014-04-01

The present research examined how decision reversibility can affect motivation. On the basis of extant findings, it was suggested that 1 way it could affect motivation would be to strengthen different regulatory foci, with reversible decision making, compared to irreversible decision making, strengthening prevention-related motivation relatively more than promotion-related motivation. If so, then decision reversibility should have effects associated with the relative differences between prevention and promotion motivation. In 5 studies, we manipulated the reversibility of a decision and used different indicators of regulatory focus motivation to test these predictions. Specifically, Study 1 tested for differences in participants' preference for approach versus avoidance strategies toward a desired end state. In Study 2, we used speed and accuracy performance as indicators of participants' regulatory motivation, and in Study 3, we measured global versus local reaction time performance. In Study 4, we approached the research question in a different way, making use of the value-from-fit hypothesis (Higgins, 2000, 2002). We tested whether a fit between chronic regulatory focus and focus induced by the reversibility of the decision increased participants' subjective positive feelings about the decision outcome. Finally, in Study 5, we tested whether regulatory motivation, induced by decision reversibility, also influenced participants' preference in specific product features. The results generally support our hypothesis showing that, compared to irreversible decisions, reversible decisions strengthen a prevention focus more than a promotion focus. Implications for research on decision making are discussed.

Nurses' Clinical Decision Making on Adopting a Wound Clinical Decision Support System.

Science.gov (United States)

Khong, Peck Chui Betty; Hoi, Shu Yin; Holroyd, Eleanor; Wang, Wenru

2015-07-01

Healthcare information technology systems are considered the ideal tool to inculcate evidence-based nursing practices. The wound clinical decision support system was built locally to support nurses to manage pressure ulcer wounds in their daily practice. However, its adoption rate is not optimal. The study's objective was to discover the concepts that informed the RNs' decisions to adopt the wound clinical decision support system as an evidence-based technology in their nursing practice. This was an exploratory, descriptive, and qualitative design using face-to-face interviews, individual interviews, and active participatory observation. A purposive, theoretical sample of 14 RNs was recruited from one of the largest public tertiary hospitals in Singapore after obtaining ethics approval. After consenting, the nurses were interviewed and observed separately. Recruitment stopped when data saturation was reached. All transcribed interview data underwent a concurrent thematic analysis, whereas observational data were content analyzed independently and subsequently triangulated with the interview data. Eight emerging themes were identified, namely, use of the wound clinical decision support system, beliefs in the wound clinical decision support system, influences of the workplace culture, extent of the benefits, professional control over nursing practices, use of knowledge, gut feelings, and emotions (fear, doubt, and frustration). These themes represented the nurses' mental outlook as they made decisions on adopting the wound clinical decision support system in light of the complexities of their roles and workloads. This research has provided insight on the nurses' thoughts regarding their decision to interact with the computer environment in a Singapore context. It captured the nurses' complex thoughts when deciding whether to adopt or reject information technology as they practice in a clinical setting.

Performance predictions for solar-chemical convertors by computer simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luttmer, J.D.; Trachtenberg, I.

1985-08-01

A computer model which simulates the operation of Texas Instruments solar-chemical convertor (SCC) was developed. The model allows optimization of SCC processes, material, and configuration by facilitating decisions on tradeoffs among ease of manufacturing, power conversion efficiency, and cost effectiveness. The model includes various algorithms which define the electrical, electrochemical, and resistance parameters and which describ the operation of the discrete components of the SCC. Results of the model which depict the effect of material and geometric changes on various parameters are presented. The computer-calculated operation is compared with experimentall observed hydrobromic acid electrolysis rates.

Coordinating Information and Decisions of Hierarchical Distributed Decision Units in Crises

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rose, Gerald

1997-01-01

A program of research is described. The research addressed decision making by distributed decision makers using either consensus or leader structures and confronted by both routine tasks and different kinds of information system crisis...

Classification and Optimization of Decision Trees for Inconsistent Decision Tables Represented as MVD Tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2015-10-11

Decision tree is a widely used technique to discover patterns from consistent data set. But if the data set is inconsistent, where there are groups of examples (objects) with equal values of conditional attributes but different decisions (values of the decision attribute), then to discover the essential patterns or knowledge from the data set is challenging. We consider three approaches (generalized, most common and many-valued decision) to handle such inconsistency. We created different greedy algorithms using various types of impurity and uncertainty measures to construct decision trees. We compared the three approaches based on the decision tree properties of the depth, average depth and number of nodes. Based on the result of the comparison, we choose to work with the many-valued decision approach. Now to determine which greedy algorithms are efficient, we compared them based on the optimization and classification results. It was found that some greedy algorithms Mult\\\\_ws\\\\_entSort, and Mult\\\\_ws\\\\_entML are good for both optimization and classification.

Classification and Optimization of Decision Trees for Inconsistent Decision Tables Represented as MVD Tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2015-01-01

Decision tree is a widely used technique to discover patterns from consistent data set. But if the data set is inconsistent, where there are groups of examples (objects) with equal values of conditional attributes but different decisions (values of the decision attribute), then to discover the essential patterns or knowledge from the data set is challenging. We consider three approaches (generalized, most common and many-valued decision) to handle such inconsistency. We created different greedy algorithms using various types of impurity and uncertainty measures to construct decision trees. We compared the three approaches based on the decision tree properties of the depth, average depth and number of nodes. Based on the result of the comparison, we choose to work with the many-valued decision approach. Now to determine which greedy algorithms are efficient, we compared them based on the optimization and classification results. It was found that some greedy algorithms Mult\\_ws\\_entSort, and Mult\\_ws\\_entML are good for both optimization and classification.

Real-life decision making in college students. I: Consistency across specific decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Galotti, Kathleen M; Wiener, Hillary J D; Tandler, Jane M

2014-01-01

First-year undergraduates participated in a short-term longitudinal study of real-life decision making over their first 14 months of college. They were surveyed about 7 different decisions: choosing courses for an upcoming term (3 different terms), choosing an academic major (twice), planning for the upcoming summer, and planning for sophomore-year housing. Participants showed moderate levels of consistency in the options they considered and in the criteria they used to decide between options, with about half of the options or criteria being used at 2 different points on the decision repeatedly studied. Participants varied somewhat in structural consistency, the tendency to consider the same number of options or criteria across decisions. They also varied in the way they integrated information across decision-making tasks. We suggest that people attempt to keep the information demands of the task within workable limits, sometimes sacrificing consistency as a result.

Continuous-flow centrifugation to collect suspended sediment for chemical analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Conn, Kathleen E.; Dinicola, Richard S.; Black, Robert W.; Cox, Stephen E.; Sheibley, Richard W.; Foreman, James R.; Senter, Craig A.; Peterson, Norman T.

2016-12-22

polychlorinated biphenyls. The particle-size distribution of the captured sediment changes to a more fine-grained sample during centrifugation, and the necessity to account for this change when extrapolating chemical concentrations on the centrifuged sediment sample to the environmental water system is discussed.The data produced using this method will help eliminate a data gap of suspended sediment-bound chemical concentrations, and will support management decisions, such as chemical source-control efforts or in-stream restoration activities. When coupled with streamflow and sediment flux data, it will improve estimates of riverine chemical fluxes, and will aid in assessing the importance and impacts of suspended sediment-bound chemicals to downstream freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems.

Comparing perceptual and preferential decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Dutilh, Gilles; Rieskamp, Jörg

2016-06-01

Perceptual and preferential decision making have been studied largely in isolation. Perceptual decisions are considered to be at a non-deliberative cognitive level and have an outside criterion that defines the quality of decisions. Preferential decisions are considered to be at a higher cognitive level and the quality of decisions depend on the decision maker's subjective goals. Besides these crucial differences, both types of decisions also have in common that uncertain information about the choice situation has to be processed before a decision can be made. The present work aims to acknowledge the commonalities of both types of decision making to lay bare the crucial differences. For this aim we examine perceptual and preferential decisions with a novel choice paradigm that uses the identical stimulus material for both types of decisions. This paradigm allows us to model the decisions and response times of both types of decisions with the same sequential sampling model, the drift diffusion model. The results illustrate that the different incentive structure in both types of tasks changes people's behavior so that they process information more efficiently and respond more cautiously in the perceptual as compared to the preferential task. These findings set out a perspective for further integration of perceptual and preferential decision making in a single ramework.

Uncertainty modeling and decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yager, Ronald R.

2004-01-01

We first formulate the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The importance of the representation of our knowledge about the uncertainty in formulating a decision process is pointed out. We begin with a brief discussion of the case of probabilistic uncertainty. Next, in considerable detail, we discuss the case of decision making under ignorance. For this case the fundamental role of the attitude of the decision maker is noted and its subjective nature is emphasized. Next the case in which a Dempster-Shafer belief structure is used to model our knowledge of the uncertainty is considered. Here we also emphasize the subjective choices the decision maker must make in formulating a decision function. The case in which the uncertainty is represented by a fuzzy measure (monotonic set function) is then investigated. We then return to the Dempster-Shafer belief structure and show its relationship to the fuzzy measure. This relationship allows us to get a deeper understanding of the formulation the decision function used Dempster- Shafer framework. We discuss how this deeper understanding allows a decision analyst to better make the subjective choices needed in the formulation of the decision function

Dementia, Decision Making, and Capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Darby, R Ryan; Dickerson, Bradford C

After participating in this activity, learners should be better able to:• Assess the neuropsychological literature on decision making and the medical and legal assessment of capacity in patients with dementia• Identify the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments for patients with dementia ABSTRACT: Medical and legal professionals face the challenge of assessing capacity and competency to make medical, legal, and financial decisions in dementia patients with impaired decision making. While such assessments have classically focused on the capacity for complex reasoning and executive functions, research in decision making has revealed that motivational and metacognitive processes are also important. We first briefly review the neuropsychological literature on decision making and on the medical and legal assessment of capacity. Next, we discuss the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments, including the group-to-individual inference problem, the unclear role of neuroimaging in capacity assessments, and the lack of capacity measures that integrate important facets of decision making. Finally, we present several case examples where we attempt to demonstrate the potential benefits and important limitations of using decision-making research to aid in capacity determinations.

Knowledge, decision making, and uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fox, J.

1986-01-01

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it

The Decision Calculus of Terrorist Leaders

OpenAIRE

J. Tyson Chatagnier; Alex Mintz; Yair Samban

2012-01-01

This article contributes to the literature on terrorist group decision-making by introducing a new procedure, Applied Decision Analysis, in an attempt to understand how leaders of terrorist organizations make decisions. We examine twenty-three decisions taken by leaders of three terrorist organizations: Al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hizballah. We also demonstrate the use of the Applied Decision Analysis procedure to uncover the "Decision DNA" or “decision code” of leaders of such organizat...

Soft Decision Analyzer

Science.gov (United States)

Lansdowne, Chatwin; Steele, Glen; Zucha, Joan; Schlesinger, Adam

2013-01-01

We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

Ethical Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauesen, Linne Marie

2012-01-01

of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

Actions and Decisions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Monthoux, Pierre Guillet de

2017-01-01

as Aristotelian syllogistic reasoning. Her constant analytical care to defend a philosophy of action against metaphysical assumptions and taken-for-granted “psychologisms” shows that an action-perspective is as analytic as ever one of decision-making. What differs is that the latter seems constantly attracted......How management philosophy is conceived depends on if pragmatism is acknowledged or not! After having been under the main domination of management science both research and education has until recently widened its scope from a decision-making to an action-perspective. It seems to be a recent...... reconnection to pragmatism that makes the 2011 Carnegie report propose to rethink management in liberal arts terms, whilst the vastly influential 1959 Carnegie Pierson report distanced itself from American pragmatism thus focusing on decisions and forgetting actions. Actions may contain decisions and choices...

Impact of oil and related chemicals on the marine environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

This review updates a previous review entitled ''Impact of Oil on the Marine Environment''. It covers oil and individual hydrocarbons, used lubricating oils, chemical control agents for oil spills, and wastes from offshore petroleum operations. It considers all major knowledge generated since the mid-1970s. The review covers its topics comprehensively, from a consideration of the composition, sources and inputs of oil to its ecological and human health effects and its effects on man's use of the sea. The review addresses several key questions on the present levels of contamination, the impact of hydrocarbons and related chemicals on marine biota, the recovery potential of marine ecosystems exposed to these contaminants, the degree of protection required for marine ecosystems known to be vulnerable and sensitive, and recommended research and other actions to fill gaps in knowledge. The review describes the hazards of marine oil pollution and associated chemicals and wastes as they are understood currently, and clarifies the importance of reducing oil inputs in coastal and offshore waters. It assists in considering fundamental questions, asked by the public and decision-makers alike, such as: how much oil is entering our oceans, and how much harm is it doing? (author)

Predicting volume of distribution with decision tree-based regression methods using predicted tissue:plasma partition coefficients.

Science.gov (United States)

Freitas, Alex A; Limbu, Kriti; Ghafourian, Taravat

2015-01-01

Volume of distribution is an important pharmacokinetic property that indicates the extent of a drug's distribution in the body tissues. This paper addresses the problem of how to estimate the apparent volume of distribution at steady state (Vss) of chemical compounds in the human body using decision tree-based regression methods from the area of data mining (or machine learning). Hence, the pros and cons of several different types of decision tree-based regression methods have been discussed. The regression methods predict Vss using, as predictive features, both the compounds' molecular descriptors and the compounds' tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kt:p) - often used in physiologically-based pharmacokinetics. Therefore, this work has assessed whether the data mining-based prediction of Vss can be made more accurate by using as input not only the compounds' molecular descriptors but also (a subset of) their predicted Kt:p values. Comparison of the models that used only molecular descriptors, in particular, the Bagging decision tree (mean fold error of 2.33), with those employing predicted Kt:p values in addition to the molecular descriptors, such as the Bagging decision tree using adipose Kt:p (mean fold error of 2.29), indicated that the use of predicted Kt:p values as descriptors may be beneficial for accurate prediction of Vss using decision trees if prior feature selection is applied. Decision tree based models presented in this work have an accuracy that is reasonable and similar to the accuracy of reported Vss inter-species extrapolations in the literature. The estimation of Vss for new compounds in drug discovery will benefit from methods that are able to integrate large and varied sources of data and flexible non-linear data mining methods such as decision trees, which can produce interpretable models. Graphical AbstractDecision trees for the prediction of tissue partition coefficient and volume of distribution of drugs.

Assessing Practitioners’ and Patients’ Needs Regarding Shared Decision-Making and Decision Aids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michiel Hageman

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Background: As part of the process of developing a decision aid for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS according to the Ottawa Decision Support Framework, we were interested in the level of ‘decisional conflict’ of hand surgeons and patients with CTS. This study addresses the null hypothesis that there is no difference between surgeon and patient decisional conflict with respect to test and treatment options for CTS. Secondary analyses assess the impact of patient and physician demographics and the strength of the patient-physician relationship on decisional conflict.   Methods: One-hundred-twenty-three observers of the Science of Variation Group (SOVG and 84 patients with carpal tunnel syndrome completed a survey regarding the Decisional Conflict Scale. Patients also filled out the Pain Self-efficacy Questionnaire (PSEQ and the Patient Doctor Relationship Questionnaire (PDRQ-9.   Results: On average, patients had significantly greater decision conflict and scored higher on most subscales of the decisional conflict scale than hand surgeons.Factors associated with greater decision conflict were specific hand surgeon, less self-efficacy (confidence that one can achieve one’s goals in spite of pain, and higher PDRQ (relationship between patient and doctor. Surgeons from Europe have--on average--significantly more decision conflict than surgeons in the United States of America.   Conclusions: Patients with CTS have more decision conflict than hand surgeons. Decision aids might help narrow this gap in decisional conflict.

How decisions happen: focal points and blind spots in interdependent decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Halevy, Nir; Chou, Eileen Y

2014-03-01

Decision makers often simplify decision problems by ignoring readily available information. The current multimethod research investigated which types of information about interdependence situations are psychologically prominent to decision makers and which tend to go unnoticed. Study 1 used eye-tracking measures to investigate how decision makers allocate their attention in interdependence situations and revealed that individuals fixated on mutual cooperation earlier and longer as compared with alternative combinations of strategies and outcomes. In addition, participants' behavioral cooperation was consistent with their attention allocation. Study 2 introduced a novel information-search paradigm: Participants exchanged yes/no questions and answers to discover which of 25 different games their counterpart chose. Analyzing the contents of participants' questions showed that, consistent with Study 1, participants focused primarily on desirable outcomes and symmetric behavioral choices. Study 3 revealed that outcome desirability is a robust basis of psychological prominence across different types of social relations; in contrast, the psychological prominence of symmetry was moderated by the nature of social relations. Study 4 revealed that whether different bases of psychological prominence directed individuals' attention to the same aspects of the decision-making task moderated the effect of information availability on decision latency and cooperation rates. Taken together, these findings contribute to the mapping of bounded rationality, demonstrate how people think about their interdependence, and enhance our understanding of how decisions happen. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Visual histories of decision processes for collaborative decision making

OpenAIRE

Kozlova, Karine

2016-01-01

Remembering, understanding and reconstructing past activities is a necessary part of any learning, sense-making or decision making process. It is also essential for any collaborative activity. This dissertation investigates the design and evaluation of systems to support decision remembering, understanding and reconstruction by groups and individuals. By conducting three qualitative case studies of small professional groups, we identify the critical activities where history functionality is n...

From Career Decision-Making Styles to Career Decision-Making Profiles: A Multidimensional Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma

2010-01-01

Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an…

Encounter Decision Aid vs. Clinical Decision Support or Usual Care to Support Patient-Centered Treatment Decisions in Osteoporosis: The Osteoporosis Choice Randomized Trial II.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annie LeBlanc

Full Text Available Osteoporosis Choice, an encounter decision aid, can engage patients and clinicians in shared decision making about osteoporosis treatment. Its effectiveness compared to the routine provision to clinicians of the patient's estimated risk of fracture using the FRAX calculator is unknown.Patient-level, randomized, three-arm trial enrolling women over 50 with osteopenia or osteoporosis eligible for treatment with bisphosphonates, where the use of Osteoporosis Choice was compared to FRAX only and to usual care to determine impact on patient knowledge, decisional conflict, involvement in the decision-making process, decision to start and adherence to bisphosphonates.We enrolled 79 women in the three arms. Because FRAX estimation alone and usual care produced similar results, we grouped them for analysis. Compared to these, use of Osteoporosis Choice increased patient knowledge (median score 6 vs. 4, p = .01, improved understanding of fracture risk and risk reduction with bisphosphonates (p = .01 and p<.0001, respectively, had no effect on decision conflict, and increased patient engagement in the decision making process (OPTION scores 57% vs. 43%, p = .001. Encounters with the decision aid were 0.8 minutes longer (range: 33 minutes shorter to 3.0 minutes longer. There were twice as many patients receiving and filling prescriptions in the decision aid arm (83% vs. 40%, p = .07; medication adherence at 6 months was no different across arms.Supporting both patients and clinicians during the clinical encounter with the Osteoporosis Choice decision aid efficiently improves treatment decision making when compared to usual care with or without clinical decision support with FRAX results.clinical trials.gov NCT00949611.

Nuclear regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)

Totally optimal decision rules

KAUST Repository

Amin, Talha

2017-11-22

Optimality of decision rules (patterns) can be measured in many ways. One of these is referred to as length. Length signifies the number of terms in a decision rule and is optimally minimized. Another, coverage represents the width of a rule’s applicability and generality. As such, it is desirable to maximize coverage. A totally optimal decision rule is a decision rule that has the minimum possible length and the maximum possible coverage. This paper presents a method for determining the presence of totally optimal decision rules for “complete” decision tables (representations of total functions in which different variables can have domains of differing values). Depending on the cardinalities of the domains, we can either guarantee for each tuple of values of the function that totally optimal rules exist for each row of the table (as in the case of total Boolean functions where the cardinalities are equal to 2) or, for each row, we can find a tuple of values of the function for which totally optimal rules do not exist for this row.

Totally optimal decision rules

KAUST Repository

Amin, Talha M.; Moshkov, Mikhail

2017-01-01

Optimality of decision rules (patterns) can be measured in many ways. One of these is referred to as length. Length signifies the number of terms in a decision rule and is optimally minimized. Another, coverage represents the width of a rule’s applicability and generality. As such, it is desirable to maximize coverage. A totally optimal decision rule is a decision rule that has the minimum possible length and the maximum possible coverage. This paper presents a method for determining the presence of totally optimal decision rules for “complete” decision tables (representations of total functions in which different variables can have domains of differing values). Depending on the cardinalities of the domains, we can either guarantee for each tuple of values of the function that totally optimal rules exist for each row of the table (as in the case of total Boolean functions where the cardinalities are equal to 2) or, for each row, we can find a tuple of values of the function for which totally optimal rules do not exist for this row.

Improving IT Portfolio Management Decision Confidence Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Hypervariate Display Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Landmesser, John Andrew

2014-01-01

Information technology (IT) investment decision makers are required to process large volumes of complex data. An existing body of knowledge relevant to IT portfolio management (PfM), decision analysis, visual comprehension of large volumes of information, and IT investment decision making suggest Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and…

Why small and medium chemical companies continue to pose severe environmental risks in rural China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Guizhen; Zhang, Lei; Mol, Arthur P.J.; Wang, Tieyu; Lu, Yonglong

2014-01-01

In China, rural chemical SMEs are often believed to still largely operate below the sustainability radar. This paper investigates to what extent and how chemical SMEs are already experiencing pressure to improve their environmental performance, using an in-depth case study in Jasmine County, Hebei province. The results show that local residents had rather low trust in the environmental improvement promises made by the enterprises and the local government, and disagreed with the proposed improvement plans. Although the power of local residents to influence decision making remained limited, the chemical SMEs started to feel increasing pressures to clean up their business, from governments, local communities and civil society, and international value chain stakeholders. Notwithstanding these mounting pressures chemical SME's environmental behavior and performance has not changed radically for the better. The strong economic ties between local county governments and chemical SMEs continue to be a major barrier for stringent environmental regulation. -- Highlights: • Rural chemical SMEs are often below the sustainability radar in China. • Close local government-SMEs tie remained as a barrier for effective environmental enforcement. • Rural communities proved unable to collectively raise their voice. • National government must adopt environment-oriented political incentives. -- The paper provides a major understanding of how and why the large number of existing chemical SMEs in rural China still form major chemical risks

Deciding which chemical mixtures risk assessment methods work best for what mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teuschler, Linda K.

2007-01-01

The most commonly used chemical mixtures risk assessment methods involve simple notions of additivity and toxicological similarity. Newer methods are emerging in response to the complexities of chemical mixture exposures and effects. Factors based on both science and policy drive decisions regarding whether to conduct a chemical mixtures risk assessment and, if so, which methods to employ. Scientific considerations are based on positive evidence of joint toxic action, elevated human exposure conditions or the potential for significant impacts on human health. Policy issues include legislative drivers that may mandate action even though adequate toxicity data on a specific mixture may not be available and risk assessment goals that impact the choice of risk assessment method to obtain the amount of health protection desired. This paper discusses three important concepts used to choose among available approaches for conducting a chemical mixtures risk assessment: (1) additive joint toxic action of mixture components; (2) toxicological interactions of mixture components; and (3) chemical composition of complex mixtures. It is proposed that scientific support for basic assumptions used in chemical mixtures risk assessment should be developed by expert panels, risk assessment methods experts, and laboratory toxicologists. This is imperative to further develop and refine quantitative methods and provide guidance on their appropriate applications. Risk assessors need scientific support for chemical mixtures risk assessment methods in the form of toxicological data on joint toxic action for high priority mixtures, statistical methods for analyzing dose-response for mixtures, and toxicological and statistical criteria for determining sufficient similarity of complex mixtures

Probabilistic consequence model of accidenal or intentional chemical releases.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Y.-S.; Samsa, M. E.; Folga, S. M.; Hartmann, H. M.

2008-06-02

In this work, general methodologies for evaluating the impacts of large-scale toxic chemical releases are proposed. The potential numbers of injuries and fatalities, the numbers of hospital beds, and the geographical areas rendered unusable during and some time after the occurrence and passage of a toxic plume are estimated on a probabilistic basis. To arrive at these estimates, historical accidental release data, maximum stored volumes, and meteorological data were used as inputs into the SLAB accidental chemical release model. Toxic gas footprints from the model were overlaid onto detailed population and hospital distribution data for a given region to estimate potential impacts. Output results are in the form of a generic statistical distribution of injuries and fatalities associated with specific toxic chemicals and regions of the United States. In addition, indoor hazards were estimated, so the model can provide contingency plans for either shelter-in-place or evacuation when an accident occurs. The stochastic distributions of injuries and fatalities are being used in a U.S. Department of Homeland Security-sponsored decision support system as source terms for a Monte Carlo simulation that evaluates potential measures for mitigating terrorist threats. This information can also be used to support the formulation of evacuation plans and to estimate damage and cleanup costs.

Greedy algorithms for construction of approximate tests for decision tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2012-12-14

The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate tests (super-reducts) This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row We consider bounds on the precision of this algorithm relative to the cardinality of tests.

The application of reduced-processing decision support systems to facilitate the acquisition of decision-making skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Nathan C; Wiggins, Mark W; Childs, Merilyn; Fogarty, Gerard

2013-06-01

The study was designed to examine whether the availability of reduced-processing decision support system interfaces could improve the decision making of inexperienced personnel in the context of Although research into reduced-processing decision support systems has demonstrated benefits in minimizing cognitive load, these benefits have not typically translated into direct improvements in decision accuracy because of the tendency for inexperienced personnel to focus on less-critical information. The authors investigated whether reduced-processing interfaces that direct users' attention toward the most critical cues for decision making can produce improvements in decision-making performance. Novice participants made incident command-related decisions in experimental conditions that differed according to the amount of information that was available within the interface, the level of control that they could exert over the presentation of information, and whether they had received decision training. The results revealed that despite receiving training, participants improved in decision accuracy only when they were provided with an interface that restricted information access to the most critical cues. It was concluded that an interface that restricts information access to only the most critical cues in the scenario can facilitate improvements in decision performance. Decision support system interfaces that encourage the processing of the most critical cues have the potential to improve the accuracy and timeliness of decisions made by inexperienced personnel.

In silico prediction of toxicity of non-congeneric industrial chemicals using ensemble learning based modeling approaches

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, Kunwar P., E-mail: kpsingh_52@yahoo.com; Gupta, Shikha

2014-03-15

Ensemble learning approach based decision treeboost (DTB) and decision tree forest (DTF) models are introduced in order to establish quantitative structure–toxicity relationship (QSTR) for the prediction of toxicity of 1450 diverse chemicals. Eight non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals was evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index. Stochastic gradient boosting and bagging algorithms supplemented DTB and DTF models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the toxicity end-point in T. pyriformis. Special attention was drawn to prediction ability and robustness of the models, investigated both in external and 10-fold cross validation processes. In complete data, optimal DTB and DTF models rendered accuracies of 98.90%, 98.83% in two-category and 98.14%, 98.14% in four-category toxicity classifications. Both the models further yielded classification accuracies of 100% in external toxicity data of T. pyriformis. The constructed regression models (DTB and DTF) using five descriptors yielded correlation coefficients (R{sup 2}) of 0.945, 0.944 between the measured and predicted toxicities with mean squared errors (MSEs) of 0.059, and 0.064 in complete T. pyriformis data. The T. pyriformis regression models (DTB and DTF) applied to the external toxicity data sets yielded R{sup 2} and MSE values of 0.637, 0.655; 0.534, 0.507 (marine bacteria) and 0.741, 0.691; 0.155, 0.173 (algae). The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting toxicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. These approaches provide useful strategy and robust tools in the screening of ecotoxicological risk or environmental hazard potential of chemicals. - Graphical abstract: Importance of input variables in DTB and DTF classification models for (a) two-category, and (b) four-category toxicity intervals in T. pyriformis data. Generalization and predictive abilities of the

In silico prediction of toxicity of non-congeneric industrial chemicals using ensemble learning based modeling approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, Kunwar P.; Gupta, Shikha

2014-01-01

Ensemble learning approach based decision treeboost (DTB) and decision tree forest (DTF) models are introduced in order to establish quantitative structure–toxicity relationship (QSTR) for the prediction of toxicity of 1450 diverse chemicals. Eight non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals was evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index. Stochastic gradient boosting and bagging algorithms supplemented DTB and DTF models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the toxicity end-point in T. pyriformis. Special attention was drawn to prediction ability and robustness of the models, investigated both in external and 10-fold cross validation processes. In complete data, optimal DTB and DTF models rendered accuracies of 98.90%, 98.83% in two-category and 98.14%, 98.14% in four-category toxicity classifications. Both the models further yielded classification accuracies of 100% in external toxicity data of T. pyriformis. The constructed regression models (DTB and DTF) using five descriptors yielded correlation coefficients (R 2 ) of 0.945, 0.944 between the measured and predicted toxicities with mean squared errors (MSEs) of 0.059, and 0.064 in complete T. pyriformis data. The T. pyriformis regression models (DTB and DTF) applied to the external toxicity data sets yielded R 2 and MSE values of 0.637, 0.655; 0.534, 0.507 (marine bacteria) and 0.741, 0.691; 0.155, 0.173 (algae). The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting toxicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. These approaches provide useful strategy and robust tools in the screening of ecotoxicological risk or environmental hazard potential of chemicals. - Graphical abstract: Importance of input variables in DTB and DTF classification models for (a) two-category, and (b) four-category toxicity intervals in T. pyriformis data. Generalization and predictive abilities of the

The Application of Recognition-Primed Decision Theory to Decisions Made in an Outdoor Education Context

Science.gov (United States)

Boyes, Mike; Potter, Tom

2015-01-01

This research examined the decisions that highly experienced outdoor leaders made on backpacking expeditions conducted by a tertiary institution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. The purpose of the research was to document decision problems and explore them as Recognition-Primed Decisions (RPD) within naturalistic decision making (NDM)…

Multiple criteria decision making with life cycle assessment for material selection of composites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Milani

2011-12-01

Full Text Available With the advancement of interdisciplinary approaches in today’s modern engineering, current efforts in optimal design of composites include seeking material selection protocols that can (1 simultaneously consider a series of mechanical/electrical/chemical cost criteria over a set of alternative material options, and (2 closely take into account environmental aspects of final products including recycling and end-of-life disposal options. In this paper, in addition to a review of some recent experimental and methodological advances in the above areas, a new application of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM is presented to deal with decision conflicts often seen among design criteria in composite material selection with the help of life cycle assessment (LCA. To show the application, an illustrative case study on a plastic gear material selection is conducted where the cost, mechanical and thermal properties along with environmental impact criteria are to be satisfied simultaneously. A pure plastic gear is compared to a Polyethylene terephthalate (PET/aluminum-powder composite alternative. Results suggest that simple MCDM models, including a signal-to-noise measure adapted to MCDM in the same case study, can be used to explore both trade-offs and design break-even points in large decision spaces as the decision maker’s perspective over environmental, material performance and cost attributes change during the design process. More advanced topics including the account of material data uncertainties are addressed.

Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.

2018-05-01

Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.

Strategic decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

2000-01-01

This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision

Framing decisions decision-making that accounts for irrationality, people and constraints

CERN Document Server

Frame, J Davidson

2012-01-01

The economic crisis of 2008-2009 was a transformational event: it demonstrated that smart people aren''t as smart as they and the public think. The crisis arose because a lot of highly educated people in high-impact positions- political power brokers, business leaders, and large segments of the general public-made a lot of bad decisions despite unprecedented access to data, highly sophisticated decision support systems, methodological advances in the decision sciences, and guidance from highly experienced experts. How could we get things so wrong? The answer, says J. Davidson Frame in Framing

8 CFR 1003.37 - Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... decision of the Immigration Judge may be rendered orally or in writing. If the decision is oral, it shall be stated by the Immigration Judge in the presence of the parties and a memorandum summarizing the oral decision shall be served on the parties. If the decision is in writing, it shall be served on the...

PATIENT-CENTERED DECISION MAKING: LESSONS FROM MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR QUANTIFYING PATIENT PREFERENCES.

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, Kevin; Caro, J Jaime; Zaiser, Erica; Heywood, James; Hamed, Alaa

2018-01-01

Patient preferences should be a central consideration in healthcare decision making. However, stories of patients challenging regulatory and reimbursement decisions has led to questions on whether patient voices are being considered sufficiently during those decision making processes. This has led some to argue that it is necessary to quantify patient preferences before they can be adequately considered. This study considers the lessons from the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for efforts to quantify patient preferences. It defines MCDA and summarizes the benefits it can provide to decision makers, identifies examples of MCDAs that have involved patients, and summarizes good practice guidelines as they relate to quantifying patient preferences. The guidance developed to support the use of MCDA in healthcare provide some useful considerations for the quantification of patient preferences, namely that researchers should give appropriate consideration to: the heterogeneity of patient preferences, and its relevance to decision makers; the cognitive challenges posed by different elicitation methods; and validity of the results they produce. Furthermore, it is important to consider how the relevance of these considerations varies with the decision being supported. The MCDA literature holds important lessons for how patient preferences should be quantified to support healthcare decision making.

Data for First Responder Use of Photoionization Detectors for Vapor Chemical Constituents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keith A. Daum; Matthew G. Watrous; M. Dean Neptune; Daniel I. Michael; Kevin J. Hull; Joseph D. Evans

2006-11-01

First responders need appropriate measurement technologies for evaluating incident scenes. This report provides information about photoionization detectors (PIDs), obtained from manufacturers and independent laboratory tests, and the use of PIDs by first responders, obtained from incident commanders in the United States and Canada. PIDs are valued for their relatively low cost, light weight, rapid detection response, and ease of use. However, it is clear that further efforts are needed to provide suitable instruments and decision tools to incident commanders and first responders for assessing potential hazardous chemical releases. Information provided in this report indicates that PIDs should always be part of a decision-making context in which other qualitative and more definitive tests and instruments are used to confirm a finding. Possible amelioratory actions ranging from quick and relatively easy fixes to those requiring significant additional effort are outlined in the report.

The impact of the mode of thought in complex decisions: intuitive decisions are better

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius eUsher

2011-03-01

Full Text Available A number of recent studies have reported that decision-quality is enhanced under conditions of inattention or distraction (unconscious-thought; Dijksterhuis, 2004; Dijksterhuis et al., 2006; Dijksterhuis & Nordgren, 2006. These reports have generated considerable controversy, for both experimental (problems of replication and theoretical reasons (interpretation. Here we report the results of four experiments. The first experiment replicates the unconscious thought effect, under conditions that validate and control the subjective criterion of decision quality. The second and third experiments examine the impact of a mode of thought manipulation (without distraction on decision quality in immediate decisions. Here we find that intuitive or affective manipulations improve decision quality compared to analytic/deliberation manipulations. The fourth experiment combines the two methods (distraction and mode of thought manipulations and demonstrates enhanced decision quality, in a situation that attempts to preserve ecological validity. The results are interpreted within a framework that is based on two interacting subsystems of decision-making: an affective/intuition based system and an analytic/deliberation system.

Risk-based high-throughput chemical screening and prioritization using exposure models and in vitro bioactivity assays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Hyeong-Moo; Ernstoff, Alexi; Csiszar, Susan A.

2015-01-01

We present a risk-based high-throughput screening (HTS) method to identify chemicals for potential health concerns or for which additional information is needed. The method is applied to 180 organic chemicals as a case study. We first obtain information on how the chemical is used and identify relevant use scenarios (e.g., dermal application, indoor emissions). For each chemical and use scenario, exposure models are then used to calculate a chemical intake fraction, or a product intake fraction, accounting for chemical properties and the exposed population. We then combine these intake fractions with use scenario-specific estimates of chemical quantity to calculate daily intake rates (iR; mg/kg/day). These intake rates are compared to oral equivalent doses (OED; mg/kg/day), calculated from a suite of ToxCast in vitro bioactivity assays using in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation and reverse dosimetry. Bioactivity quotients (BQs) are calculated as iR/OED to obtain estimates of potential impact associated with each relevant use scenario. Of the 180 chemicals considered, 38 had maximum iRs exceeding minimum OEDs (i.e., BQs > 1). For most of these compounds, exposures are associated with direct intake, food/oral contact, or dermal exposure. The method provides high-throughput estimates of exposure and important input for decision makers to identify chemicals of concern for further evaluation with additional information or more refined models

Functional imaging of decision conflict.

Science.gov (United States)

Pochon, Jean-Baptiste; Riis, Jason; Sanfey, Alan G; Nystrom, Leigh E; Cohen, Jonathan D

2008-03-26

Decision conflict occurs when people feel uncertain as to which option to choose from a set of similarly attractive (or unattractive) options, with many studies demonstrating that this conflict can lead to suboptimal decision making. In this article, we investigate the neurobiological underpinnings of decision conflict, in particular, the involvement of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Previous studies have implicated the ACC in conflict monitoring during perceptual tasks, but there is considerable controversy as to whether the ACC actually indexes conflict related to choice, or merely conflict related to selection of competing motor responses. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging study, we dissociate the decision and response phases of a decision task, and show that the ACC does indeed index conflict at the decision stage. Furthermore, we show that it does so for a complex decision task, one that requires the integration of beliefs and preferences and not just perceptual judgments.

Decision strategy research: system analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carle, B.

2000-01-01

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

Decision strategy research: system analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carle, B

2000-07-01

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

The role of symbolic capital in stakeholder disputes: decision-making concerning intractable wastes.

Science.gov (United States)

Benn, Suzanne; Jones, Richard

2009-04-01

This paper examines almost 30 years of disputation concerning the disposal of the world's largest stockpile of the toxic organochlorine, hexachlorbenzene. It describes the study of a chemicals company in its attempt to manage the disposal of the toxic waste in a collaborative fashion with government, environmentalists and the local community. The study describes the new processes and structures specifically designed to address the decision-making and the issues of stakeholder perception and identity construction which have influenced the outcomes. Decision-making in such disputes is often theorized from the perspective of the emergence of highly individualized and reflexive risk communities and changing modes and expectations of corporate responsibility as a result of detraditionalization. We argue that the stakeholder interaction in this study reflects competing discourses in which corporate actors prioritize the building and maintaining of identity and symbolic capital rather than an active collaboration to solve the ongoing issue of the waste. As well, issues of access to expert knowledge highlight the relationship between conditions of uncertainty, technoscientific expertise and identity. The events of the study highlight the challenges faced by contemporary technoscientific corporations such as chemicals companies as they must deliver on requirements of transparency and openness, while maintaining technoscientific capacity and strong internal identity. We conclude that the study demonstrates the co-existence of social processes of individualization and detraditionalization with quasi-traditions which maintain authority, thus challenging the radical distinctions made in the literature between modernity and late or reflexive modernity.

A Web-Centric Preference Acquisition and Decision Support System Employing Decision Times to express Relative Preferences

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Feinstein, Jerald

2003-01-01

... of confidence with respect to decision alternatives. This is an alternative, neural net-motivated method employing decision times or reaction time metrics and a set of decision analytic techniques for capturing, synthesizing, and analyzing decisions...

Decision support in vaccination policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Piso, B; Wild, C

2009-10-09

Looking across boarders reveals that the national immunization programs of various countries differ in their vaccination schedules and decisions regarding the implementation and funding of new vaccines. The aim of this review is to identify decision aids and crucial criteria for a rational decision-making process on vaccine introduction and to develop a theoretical framework for decision-making based on available literature. Systematic literature search supplemented by hand-search. We identified five published decision aids for vaccine introduction and program planning in industrialized countries. Their comparison revealed an overall similarity with some differences in the approach as well as criteria. Burden of disease and vaccine characteristics play a key role in all decision aids, but authors vary in their views on the significance of cost-effectiveness analyses. Other relevant factors that should be considered before vaccine introduction are discussed to highly differing extents. These factors include the immunization program itself as well as its conformity with other programs, its feasibility, acceptability, and equity, as well as ethical, legal and political considerations. Assuming that the most comprehensive framework possible will not provide a feasible tool for decision-makers, we suggest a stepwise procedure. Though even the best rational approach and most comprehensive evaluation is limited by remaining uncertainties, frameworks provide at least a structured approach to evaluate the various aspects of vaccine implementation decision-making. This process is essential in making consistently sound decisions and will facilitate the public's confidence in the decision and its realization.

Composite decision support by combining cost-benefit and multi-criteria decision

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

2011-01-01

This paper concerns composite decision support based on combining cost-benefit analysis (CBA) with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for the assessment of economic as well as strategic impacts within transport projects. Specifically a composite model for assessment (COSIMA) is presented...

An overview of decision theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, S.O.

1991-01-01

This paper has been written to provide a non-technical overview of modern decision theory and to identify some of the major ways in which decision theory is relevant to the nuclear waste issue. It concludes that the use of decision theory in the nuclear waste issue should be further developed, and more sophisticated tools should be made used of. In particular, the application of models for uncertainty and for collective decision-making is warranted, and the same applies to models that include the earlier phases of the decision-making process. (92 refs.)

Culinary Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Rob

1987-01-01

Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)

The features of decision making process in international companies. Are companies in control of their own decisions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anastasia JELEVA

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The following article deals with the main causes of irrational decision making process in companies and with respective solutions to make decisions more rational and effective. With the aid of relevant literature, the ways managers, groups and leaders make decisions in reality will be clarified. Besides, the solutions to rational decisions examined through the perspective of managers, leaders and groups. Thus, the background of this article is the question “Are companies in control of their own decisions?” In addition, this paper includes relevant information about the features of decision making process, basic types of decisions, describes the most essential approach in management regarding to decision making and presents the top worst and best business decisions of all time.

Depleted uranium hexafluoride (DUF6) management system--a decision tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gasper, J.R.; Sutter, R.J.; Avci, H.I.

1995-01-01

The Depleted Uranium Hexafluoride (DUF 6 ) Management System (DMS) is being developed as a decision tool to provide cost and risk data for evaluation of short-and long-term management strategies for depleted uranium. It can be used to assist decision makers on a programmatic or site-specific level. Currently, the DMS allows evaluation of near-term cylinder management strategies such as storage yard improvements, cylinder restocking, and reconditioning. The DMS has been designed to provide the user with maximum flexibility for modifying data and impact factors (e.g., unit costs and risk factors). Sensitivity analysis can be performed on all key parameters such as cylinder corrosion rate, inspection frequency, and impact factors. Analysis may be conducted on a system-wide, site, or yard basis. The costs and risks from different scenarios may be compared in graphic or tabular format. Ongoing development of the DMS will allow similar evaluation of long-term management strategies such as conversion to other chemical forms. The DMS is a Microsoft Windows 3.1 based, stand-alone computer application. It can be operated on a 486 or faster computer with VGA, 4 MB of RAM, and 10 MB of disk space

Is Shared Decision Making for End-of-Life Decisions Associated With Better Outcomes as Compared to Other Forms of Decision Making? A Systematic Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Negin Hajizadeh MD, MPH

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Background: Whether shared decision making (SDM has been evaluated for end-of-life (EOL decisions as compared to other forms of decision making has not been studied. Purpose: To summarize the evidence on SDM being associated with better outcomes for EOL decision making, as compared to other forms of decision making. Data Sources: PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and CINAHL databases were searched through April 2014. Study Selection: Studies were selected that evaluated SDM, compared to any other decision making style, for an EOL decision. Data Extraction: Components of SDM tested, comparators to SDM, EOL decision being assessed, and outcomes measured. Data Synthesis: Seven studies met the inclusion criteria (three experimental and four observational studies. Results were analyzed using narrative synthesis. All three experimental studies compared SDM interventions to usual care. The four observational studies compared SDM to doctor-controlled decision making, or reported the correlation between level of SDM and outcomes. Components of SDM specified in each study differed widely, but the component most frequently included was presenting information on the risks/benefits of treatment choices (five of seven studies. The outcome most frequently measured was communication, although with different measurement tools. Other outcomes included decisional conflict, trust, satisfaction, and “quality of dying.” Limitations: We could not analyze the strength of evidence for a given outcome due to heterogeneity in the outcomes reported and measurement tools. Conclusions: There is insufficient evidence supporting SDM being associated with improved outcomes for EOL decisions as opposed to other forms of decision making. Future studies should describe which components of SDM are being tested, outline the comparator decision making style, and use validated tools to measure outcomes.

Innovative characterization techniques and decision support systems for ground water contamination projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, F.

1992-07-01

Ground water contamination projects throughout the world must be approached as individual and unique problems. Many traditional investigation techniques require modification to meet the needs of site-specific situations. Because the age of the science of contaminant hydrogeology can be measured only in a few decades, the field is ripe for innovation. This paper describes the following new technologies: At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), we have developed a new drilling and sampling method, which allows the evaluation of the vertical extent of contamination in a single borehole. We are also using new fiber-optic-based chemical analytical sensors that promise to greatly increase the case of obtaining chemical analyses in the subsurface while greatly reducing costs. Because ground water investigations are data intensive, we need the best decision support system information tools to proceed with investigation and cleanup. These tools have three components: a relational database, data analysis tools, and tools for data display

Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

Science.gov (United States)

Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

2015-01-01

Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

Promoting Shared Decision Making in Disorders of Sex Development (DSD): Decision Aids and Support Tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Siminoff, L A; Sandberg, D E

2015-05-01

Specific complaints and grievances from adult patients with disorders of sex development (DSD), and their advocates center around the lack of information or misinformation they were given about their condition and feeling stigmatized and shamed by the secrecy surrounding their condition and its management. Many also attribute poor sexual function to damaging genital surgery and/or repeated, insensitive genital examinations. These reports suggest the need to reconsider the decision-making process for the treatment of children born with DSD. This paper proposes that shared decision making, an important concept in adult health care, be operationalized for the major decisions commonly encountered in DSD care and facilitated through the utilization of decision aids and support tools. This approach may help patients and their families make informed decisions that are better aligned with their personal values and goals. It may also lead to greater confidence in decision making with greater satisfaction and less regret. A brief review of the past and current approach to DSD decision making is provided, along with a review of shared decision making and decision aids and support tools. A case study explores the need and potential utility of this suggested new approach. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karel Doubravsky

Full Text Available Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (rechecked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

Transformative decision rules, permutability, and non-sequential framing of decision problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peterson, M.B.

2004-01-01

The concept of transformative decision rules provides auseful tool for analyzing what is often referred to as the`framing', or `problem specification', or `editing' phase ofdecision making. In the present study we analyze a fundamentalaspect of transformative decision rules, viz. permutability. A

Greedy algorithms for construction of approximate tests for decision tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

2012-01-01

The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate tests (super-reducts) This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions For a given

Decision models in engineering and management

CERN Document Server

2015-01-01

Providing a comprehensive overview of various methods  and applications in decision engineering, this book presents chapters written by a range experts in the field. It presents conceptual aspects of decision support applications in various areas including finance, vendor selection, construction, process management, water management and energy, agribusiness , production scheduling and control, and waste management. In addition to this, a special focus is given to methods of multi-criteria decision analysis. Decision making in organizations is a recurrent theme and is essential for business continuity.  Managers from various fields including public, private, industrial, trading or service sectors are required to make decisions. Consequently managers need the support of these structured methods in order to engage in effective decision making. This book provides a valuable resource for graduate students, professors and researchers of decision analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and group decision analys...

Constructing food choice decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sobal, Jeffery; Bisogni, Carole A

2009-12-01

Food choice decisions are frequent, multifaceted, situational, dynamic, and complex and lead to food behaviors where people acquire, prepare, serve, give away, store, eat, and clean up. Many disciplines and fields examine decision making. Several classes of theories are applicable to food decision making, including social behavior, social facts, and social definition perspectives. Each offers some insights but also makes limiting assumptions that prevent fully explaining food choice decisions. We used constructionist social definition perspectives to inductively develop a food choice process model that organizes a broad scope of factors and dynamics involved in food behaviors. This food choice process model includes (1) life course events and experiences that establish a food choice trajectory through transitions, turning points, timing, and contexts; (2) influences on food choices that include cultural ideals, personal factors, resources, social factors, and present contexts; and (3) a personal system that develops food choice values, negotiates and balances values, classifies foods and situations, and forms/revises food choice strategies, scripts, and routines. The parts of the model dynamically interact to make food choice decisions leading to food behaviors. No single theory can fully explain decision making in food behavior. Multiple perspectives are needed, including constructionist thinking.

Hepatic steatosis assessment with {sup 1}H-spectroscopy and chemical shift imaging at 3.0 T before hepatic surgery: Reliable enough for making clinical decisions?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koelblinger, Claus, E-mail: claus.koelblinger@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Radiology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Krssak, Martin, E-mail: martin.krssak@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Radiology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Maresch, Judith, E-mail: judith.maresch@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Pathology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Wrba, Fritz, E-mail: fritz.wrba@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Pathology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Kaczirek, Klaus, E-mail: klaus.kaczirek@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Surgery, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Gruenberger, Thomas, E-mail: thomas.gruenberger@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Surgery, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Tamandl, Dietmar, E-mail: dietmar.tamandl@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Surgery, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Ba-Ssalamah, Ahmed, E-mail: ahmed.ba-ssalamah@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Radiology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Berger-Kulemann, Vanessa, E-mail: vanessa.berger-kulemann@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Radiology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Weber, Michael, E-mail: michael.weber@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Radiology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Schima, Wolfgang, E-mail: wolfgang.schima@khgh.at [Department of Radiology, KH Goettlicher Heiland and Herz-Jesu Krankenhaus, Dornbacher Strasse 20-28, 1170 Vienna (Austria)

2012-11-15

Purpose: To compare the accuracy of liver fat quantification using chemical shift imaging (CSI) and H1 MR-spectroscopy (MRS) at 3.0 T in patients undergoing liver resection. Methods: Totally 35 patients were included in this prospective IRB approved study. The histopathologically assessed liver fat was compared to the hepatic fat fractions calculated with CSI (with and without spleen correction) and MRS. Spearman's rank correlation and Fisher z-test were used for correlation analysis. Sensitivity and specificity regarding the detection of marked steatosis were calculated for the different modalities and compared using the McNemar test. Results: MRS (r = .85) and CSI with spleen correction (r = .85) showed a significantly better correlation (p = .03) with histology compared to CSI without spleen correction (r = .67). Sensitivity and specificity for the detection of marked steatosis was 100% (12/12) and 87% (20/23) for MRS and 92% (11/12) and 83% (19/23) for CSI with spleen correction (p > .12). Conclusion: For the assessment of hepatic steatosis both CSI with spleen correction and MRS at 3.0 T, show a good correlation with histology. CSI without spleen correction should not be used. Sensitivity and specificity for the detection of marked steatosis are high with both modalities. However, results that are scattered around the cut-off values are not reliable enough for clinical decisions.

Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Markus Schöbel

Full Text Available People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

2016-01-01

People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448

Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

2016-01-01

People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

Decision aiding techniques for site remediation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van de Walle, B

1996-09-18

Decision making problems in the nuclear domain are known for their complexity since they usually involve a wide range of technical, social, and political considerations. Site restoration is a typical example of a complex nuclear decision problem, and more and more decision makers realize that they need new tools to assist in the decision making process. This paper reports on multi-criteria decision analysis, a powerful tool for handling complex decisions involving multiple criteria. The motivation to use multi-criteria decision analysis in the domain of site restoration is illustrated. New developments and challenges in this field are addressed.

Decision aiding techniques for site remediation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van de Walle, B.

1996-01-01

Decision making problems in the nuclear domain are known for their complexity since they usually involve a wide range of technical, social, and political considerations. Site restoration is a typical example of a complex nuclear decision problem, and more and more decision makers realize that they need new tools to assist in the decision making process. This paper reports on multi-criteria decision analysis, a powerful tool for handling complex decisions involving multiple criteria. The motivation to use multi-criteria decision analysis in the domain of site restoration is illustrated. New developments and challenges in this field are addressed

Allium -test as a tool for toxicity testing of environmental radioactive-chemical mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oudalova, A A; Pyatkova, S V; Geras’kin, S A; Dikareva, N S

2017-01-01

Bioassay-based approaches have been propagated to assess toxicity of unknown mixtures of environmental contaminants, but it was rarely applied in cases of chemicals with radionuclides combinations. Two Allium -test studies were performed to assess environmental impact from potential sources of combined radioactive-chemical pollution. Study sites were located at nuclear waste storage facilities in European and in Far-Eastern parts of Russia. As environmental media under impact, waters from monitor wells and nearby water bodies were tested. Concentrations of some chemicals and radionuclides in the samples collected enhanced the permitted limits. Cytogenetic and cytotoxic effects were used as biological endpoints, namely, frequency and spectrum of chromosome aberrations and mitotic abnormalities in anatelophase cells as well as mitotic activity in Allium root tips. Sample points were revealed where waters have an enhanced mutagenic potential. The findings obtained could be used to optimize monitoring system and advance decision making on management and rehabilitation of industrial sites. The Allium -test could be recommended and applied as an effective tool for toxicity testing in case of combined contamination of environmental compartments with radionuclides and chemical compounds. (paper)

Three-dimensional Virtual Simulation of Oil Spill of Yangtze River in Chongqing Area Based on Emergency Decision

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shuzhe; Huang, Liwen

the river of Yangtze River in Chongqing area is continuous curved. Hydrology and channel situation is complex, and the transportation is busy. With the increasing of shipments of hazardous chemicals year by year, oil spill accident risk is rising. So establishment of three-dimensional virtual simulation of oil spill and its application in decision-making has become an urgent task. This paper detailed the process of three-dimensional virtual simulation of oil spill and established a system of three-dimensional virtual Simulation of oil spill of Yangtze River in Chongqing area by establishing an oil spill model of the Chongqing area based on oil particles model, and the system has been used in emergency decision to provide assistance for the oil spill response.

Idaho Chemical Processing Plant and Plutonium-Uranium Extraction Plant phaseout/deactivation study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patterson, M.W.; Thompson, R.J.

1994-01-01

The decision to cease all US Department of Energy (DOE) reprocessing of nuclear fuels was made on April 28, 1992. This study provides insight into and a comparison of the management, technical, compliance, and safety strategies for deactivating the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) at Westinghouse Idaho Nuclear Company (WINCO) and the Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) Plutonium-Uranium Extraction (PUREX) Plant. The purpose of this study is to ensure that lessons-learned and future plans are coordinated between the two facilities

An LWR design decision Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leahy, T.J.; Rees, D.C.; Young, J.

1982-01-01

While all parties involved in nuclear plant regulation endeavor to make decisions which optimize the considerations of plant safety and financial impacts, these decisions are generally made without the benefit of a systematic and rigorous approach to the questions confronting the decision makers. A Design Decision Methodology has been developed which provides such a systematic approach. By employing this methodology, which makes use of currently accepted probabilistic risk assessment techniques and cost estimation, informed decisions may be made against a background of comparisons between the relative levels of safety and costs associated with various design alternatives

Are patient decision aids the best way to improve clinical decision making? Report of the IPDAS Symposium.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Nelson, Wendy L; Pignone, Michael; Elwyn, Glyn; Rovner, David R; O'Connor, Annette M; Coulter, Angela; Correa-de-Araujo, Rosaly

2007-01-01

This article reports on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards Symposium held in 2006 at the annual meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The symposium featured a debate regarding the proposition that "decision aids are the best way to improve clinical decision making.'' The formal debate addressed the theoretical problem of the appropriate gold standard for an improved decision, efficacy of decision aids, and prospects for implementation. Audience comments and questions focused on both theory and practice: the often unacknowledged roots of decision aids in expected utility theory and the practical problems of limited patient decision aid implementation in health care. The participants' vote on the proposition was approximately half for and half against.

Funding Decisions for Newborn Screening: A Comparative Review of 22 Decision Processes in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katharina Elisabeth Fischer

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Decision-makers need to make choices to improve public health. Population-based newborn screening (NBS is considered as one strategy to prevent adverse health outcomes and address rare disease patients’ needs. The aim of this study was to describe key characteristics of decisions for funding new NBS programmes in Europe. We analysed past decisions using a conceptual framework. It incorporates indicators that capture the steps of decision processes by health care payers. Based on an internet survey, we compared 22 decisions for which answers among two respondents were validated for each observation. The frequencies of indicators were calculated to elicit key characteristics. All decisions resulted in positive, mostly unrestricted funding. Stakeholder participation was diverse focusing on information provision or voting. Often, decisions were not fully transparent. Assessment of NBS technologies concentrated on expert opinion, literature review and rough cost estimates. Most important appraisal criteria were effectiveness (i.e., health gain from testing for the children being screened, disease severity and availability of treatments. Some common and diverging key characteristics were identified. Although no evidence of explicit healthcare rationing was found, processes may be improved in respect of transparency and scientific rigour of assessment.

Risk approximation in decision making: approximative numeric abilities predict advantageous decisions under objective risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Silke M; Schiebener, Johannes; Delazer, Margarete; Brand, Matthias

2018-01-22

Many decision situations in everyday life involve mathematical considerations. In decisions under objective risk, i.e., when explicit numeric information is available, executive functions and abilities to handle exact numbers and ratios are predictors of objectively advantageous choices. Although still debated, exact numeric abilities, e.g., normative calculation skills, are assumed to be related to approximate number processing skills. The current study investigates the effects of approximative numeric abilities on decision making under objective risk. Participants (N = 153) performed a paradigm measuring number-comparison, quantity-estimation, risk-estimation, and decision-making skills on the basis of rapid dot comparisons. Additionally, a risky decision-making task with exact numeric information was administered, as well as tasks measuring executive functions and exact numeric abilities, e.g., mental calculation and ratio processing skills, were conducted. Approximative numeric abilities significantly predicted advantageous decision making, even beyond the effects of executive functions and exact numeric skills. Especially being able to make accurate risk estimations seemed to contribute to superior choices. We recommend approximation skills and approximate number processing to be subject of future investigations on decision making under risk.

Environmental sustainable decision making – The need and obstacles for integration of LCA into decision analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

2018-01-01

systems, revealing potential problem shifting between life cycle stages. Through the integration with traditional risk based decision analysis, LCA may thus facilitate a better informed decision process. In this study we explore how environmental impacts are taken into account in different fields......Decision analysis is often used to help decision makers choose among alternatives, based on the expected utility associated to each alternative as function of its consequences and potential impacts. Environmental impacts are not always among the prioritized concerns of traditional decision making...... of interest for decision makers to identify the need, potential and obstacles for integrating LCA into conventional approaches to decision problems. Three application areas are used as examples: transportation planning, flood management, and food production and consumption. The analysis of these cases shows...

Effect of Training in Rational Decision Making on the Quality of Simulated Career Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Krumboltz, John D.; And Others

1982-01-01

Determined if training in rational decision making improves the quality of simulated career decisions. Training in rational decision making resulted in superior performance for females on one subscore of the knowledge measure. It also resulted in superior simulated career choices by females and younger males. (Author)

Value-based reimbursement decisions for orphan drugs: a scoping review and decision framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Paulden, Mike; Stafinski, Tania; Menon, Devidas; McCabe, Christopher

2015-03-01

The rate of development of new orphan drugs continues to grow. As a result, reimbursing orphan drugs on an exceptional basis is increasingly difficult to sustain from a health system perspective. An understanding of the value that societies attach to providing orphan drugs at the expense of other health technologies is now recognised as an important input to policy debates. The aim of this work was to scope the social value arguments that have been advanced relating to the reimbursement of orphan drugs, and to locate these within a coherent decision-making framework to aid reimbursement decisions in the presence of limited healthcare resources. A scoping review of the peer reviewed and grey literature was undertaken, consisting of seven phases: (1) identifying the research question; (2) searching for relevant studies; (3) selecting studies; (4) charting, extracting and tabulating data; (5) analyzing data; (6) consulting relevant experts; and (7) presenting results. The points within decision processes where the identified value arguments would be incorporated were then located. This mapping was used to construct a framework characterising the distinct role of each value in informing decision making. The scoping review identified 19 candidate decision factors, most of which can be characterised as either value-bearing or 'opportunity cost'-determining, and also a number of value propositions and pertinent sources of preference information. We were able to synthesize these into a coherent decision-making framework. Our framework may be used to structure policy discussions and to aid transparency about the values underlying reimbursement decisions for orphan drugs. These values ought to be consistently applied to all technologies and populations affected by the decision.

Advancing in the Career Decision-Making Process: The Role of Coping Strategies and Career Decision-Making Profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Perez, Maya; Gati, Itamar

2017-01-01

We tested the associations among the career decision-making difficulties, the career decision status, and either (a) the career decision-making profiles of 575 young adults, or (b) the coping strategies of 379 young adults. As hypothesized, a more advanced decision status was negatively associated with both career decision-making difficulties…

Chemical Peels

Science.gov (United States)

... care Kids’ zone Video library Find a dermatologist Chemical peels Overview Chemical peels: Overview Also called chemexfoliation , derma peeling Do ... Overview Chemical peels: FAQs Chemical peels: Preparation FAQs Chemical peels: FAQs To help you decide whether this ...

Acceptance of shared decision making with reference to an electronic library of decision aids (arriba-lib) and its association to decision making in patients: an evaluation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Oliver; Keller, Heidemarie; Krones, Tanja; Donner-Banzhoff, Norbert

2011-07-07

Decision aids based on the philosophy of shared decision making are designed to help patients make informed choices among diagnostic or treatment options by delivering evidence-based information on options and outcomes. A patient decision aid can be regarded as a complex intervention because it consists of several presumably relevant components. Decision aids have rarely been field tested to assess patients' and physicians' attitudes towards them. It is also unclear what effect decision aids have on the adherence to chosen options. The electronic library of decision aids (arriba-lib) to be used within the clinical encounter has a modular structure and contains evidence-based decision aids for the following topics: cardiovascular prevention, atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, oral antidiabetics, conventional and intensified insulin therapy, and unipolar depression. We conducted an evaluation study in which 29 primary care physicians included 192 patients. After the consultation, patients filled in questionnaires and were interviewed via telephone two months later. We used generalised estimation equations to measure associations within patient variables and traditional crosstab analyses. Patients were highly satisfied with arriba-lib and the process of shared decision making. Two-thirds of patients reached in the telephone interview wanted to be counselled again with arriba-lib. There was a high congruence between preferred and perceived decision making. Of those patients reached in the telephone interview, 80.7% said that they implemented the decision, independent of gender and education. Elderly patients were more likely to say that they implemented the decision. Shared decision making with our multi-modular electronic library of decision aids (arriba-lib) was accepted by a high number of patients. It has positive associations to general aspects of decision making in patients. It can be used for patient groups with a wide range of individual

Barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a paediatric hospital: A descriptive study.

Science.gov (United States)

Boland, Laura; McIsaac, Daniel I; Lawson, Margaret L

2016-04-01

To explore multiple stakeholders' perceived barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a tertiary paediatric hospital. An interpretive descriptive qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and interviews to examine senior hospital administrators', clinicians', parents' and youths' perceived barriers to and facilitators of shared decision making and decision support implementation. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Fifty-seven stakeholders participated. Six barrier and facilitator themes emerged. The main barrier was gaps in stakeholders' knowledge of shared decision making and decision support. Facilitators included compatibility between shared decision making and the hospital's culture and ideal practices, perceptions of positive patient and family outcomes associated with shared decision making, and positive attitudes regarding shared decision making and decision support. However, youth attitudes regarding the necessity and usefulness of a decision support program were a barrier. Two themes were both a barrier and a facilitator. First, stakeholder groups were uncertain which clinical situations are suitable for shared decision making (eg, new diagnoses, chronic illnesses, complex decisions or urgent decisions). Second, the clinical process may be hindered if shared decision making and decision support decrease efficiency and workflow; however, shared decision making may reduce repeat visits and save time over the long term. Specific knowledge translation strategies that improve shared decision making knowledge and match specific barriers identified by each stakeholder group may be required to promote successful shared decision making and decision support implementation in the authors' paediatric hospital.

Moral and Ethical Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

2007-07-01

rational ones (i.e. Kohlberg’s influential model of decision making ). However, non- rational elements, such as affect, risk perception, risk preference...dread or anxiety) play a strong role in many types of decisions , and that the addition of decision makers’ emotions to models of choice may make ...White, 1994) agree that emotions are an integral part of ethical decision making as well. Emotions arise in the context of interpersonal

Judgment and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D

1998-01-01

For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.

Logical and Decisive Combining Criterion for Binary Group Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Vrana

2010-04-01

Full Text Available A new combining criterion, the Multiplicative Proportional Deviative Influence (MPDI is presented for combining or aggregating multi-expert numerical judgments in Yes-or-No type ill-structured group decision making situations. This newly proposed criterion performs well in comparison with the widely used aggregation means: the Arithmetic Mean (AM, and Geometric Mean (GM, especially in better reflecting the degree of agreement between criteria levels or numerical experts’ judgments. The MPDI can be considered as another class of combining criteria that make effect of the degree of agreement among multiple numerical judgments. The MPDI is applicable in integrating several collaborative or synergistic decision making systems through combining final numerical decision outputs. A discussion and generalization of the proposed MPDI is discussed withnumerical example.

Synthesis and analysis of separation networks for the recovery of intracellular chemicals generated from microbial-based conversions.

Science.gov (United States)

Yenkie, Kirti M; Wu, Wenzhao; Maravelias, Christos T

2017-01-01

Bioseparations can contribute to more than 70% in the total production cost of a bio-based chemical, and if the desired chemical is localized intracellularly, there can be additional challenges associated with its recovery. Based on the properties of the desired chemical and other components in the stream, there can be multiple feasible options for product recovery. These options are composed of several alternative technologies, performing similar tasks. The suitability of a technology for a particular chemical depends on (1) its performance parameters, such as separation efficiency; (2) cost or amount of added separating agent; (3) properties of the bioreactor effluent (e.g., biomass titer, product content); and (4) final product specifications. Our goal is to first synthesize alternative separation options and then analyze how technology selection affects the overall process economics. To achieve this, we propose an optimization-based framework that helps in identifying the critical technologies and parameters. We study the separation networks for two representative classes of chemicals based on their properties. The separation network is divided into three stages: cell and product isolation (stage I), product concentration (II), and product purification and refining (III). Each stage exploits differences in specific product properties for achieving the desired product quality. The cost contribution analysis for the two cases (intracellular insoluble and intracellular soluble) reveals that stage I is the key cost contributor (>70% of the overall cost). Further analysis suggests that changes in input conditions and technology performance parameters lead to new designs primarily in stage I. The proposed framework provides significant insights for technology selection and assists in making informed decisions regarding technologies that should be used in combination for a given set of stream/product properties and final output specifications. Additionally, the

Chemical storage of wind energy by renewable methanol production: Feasibility analysis using a multi-criteria decision matrix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matzen, Michael; Alhajji, Mahdi; Demirel, Yaşar

2015-01-01

This study is for the technoeconomic analysis of an integral facility consisting of wind energy-based electrolytic hydrogen production, bioethanol-based carbon dioxide capture and compression, and direct methanol synthesis. ASPEN Plus was used to simulate the facility producing 97.01 mt (metric tons) methanol/day using 138.37 mt CO_2/day and 18.56 mt H_2/day. A discounted cash flow diagram for the integral facility is used for the economic analysis at various hydrogen production costs and methanol selling prices. The feasibility analysis is based on a multi-criteria decision matrix consisting of economic and sustainability indicators comparing renewable and non-renewable methanol productions. The overall energy efficiency for the renewable methanol is around 58%. Fixation of carbon reduces the CO_2 equivalent emission by around −1.05 CO_2e/kg methanol. The electrolytic hydrogen production cost is the largest contributor to the economics of the integral facility. The feasibility analysis based on multi-criteria shows that renewable methanol production may be feasible. - Highlights: • We simulate renewable methanol production from wind-based hydrogen and CO_2_. • Methanol production can fix 1.05 kg CO_2/kg methanol with an energy efficiency of 58%. • Economic and sustainability metrics are estimated for the integral facility. • We introduce a decision matrix with both economic and sustainability indicators. • Renewable methanol may be feasible versus conventional fossil fuel-based methanol.

Death Penalty Decisions: Instruction Comprehension, Attitudes, and Decision Mediators

OpenAIRE

Patry, Marc W.; Penrod, Steven D.

2013-01-01

A primary goal of this research was to empirically evaluate a set of assumptions, advanced in the Supreme Court’s ruling in Buchanan v. Angelone (1998), about jury comprehension of death penalty instructions. Further, this research examined the use of evidence in capital punishment decision making by exploring underlying mediating factors upon which death penalty decisions may be based. Manipulated variables included the type of instructions and several variations of evidence. Study 1 was a p...

Physico-chemical and hydraulic mechanisms of radionuclide mobilization in aquatic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konoplev, A.V.; Bulgakov, A.A.; Comans, R.N.J.; Hilton, J.; Smith, J.; Madruga, M.J.; Voitsekhovich, O.V.; Sansone, U.; Kudelsky, A.V.

1996-01-01

This paper presents main results of joint studies carried out in frame of EC-coordinated ECP-3 Project 'Modelling and study of the mechanisms of the transfer of radioactive material from the terrestrial ecosystem to and in water bodies around Chernobyl' in part of geochemical pathways. Physico-chemical models of specific migration processes are developed and recommended for application as sub models for inclusion in the decision support system (JSP-1). Main parameters, determining the behaviour of radionuclides in aquatic ecosystems are identified and methods for their estimation in |emergency situations are proposed

Quantitative genetic activity graphical profiles for use in chemical evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waters, M.D. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Stack, H.F.; Garrett, N.E.; Jackson, M.A. [Environmental Health Research and Testing, Inc., Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

1990-12-31

A graphic approach, terms a Genetic Activity Profile (GAP), was developed to display a matrix of data on the genetic and related effects of selected chemical agents. The profiles provide a visual overview of the quantitative (doses) and qualitative (test results) data for each chemical. Either the lowest effective dose or highest ineffective dose is recorded for each agent and bioassay. Up to 200 different test systems are represented across the GAP. Bioassay systems are organized according to the phylogeny of the test organisms and the end points of genetic activity. The methodology for producing and evaluating genetic activity profile was developed in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Data on individual chemicals were compiles by IARC and by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Data are available on 343 compounds selected from volumes 1-53 of the IARC Monographs and on 115 compounds identified as Superfund Priority Substances. Software to display the GAPs on an IBM-compatible personal computer is available from the authors. Structurally similar compounds frequently display qualitatively and quantitatively similar profiles of genetic activity. Through examination of the patterns of GAPs of pairs and groups of chemicals, it is possible to make more informed decisions regarding the selection of test batteries to be used in evaluation of chemical analogs. GAPs provided useful data for development of weight-of-evidence hazard ranking schemes. Also, some knowledge of the potential genetic activity of complex environmental mixtures may be gained from an assessment of the genetic activity profiles of component chemicals. The fundamental techniques and computer programs devised for the GAP database may be used to develop similar databases in other disciplines. 36 refs., 2 figs.

Improving accountability in vaccine decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Timmis, James Kenneth; Black, Steven; Rappuoli, Rino

2017-11-01

Healthcare decisions, in particular those affecting entire populations, should be evidence-based and taken by decision-makers sharing broad alignment with affected stakeholders. However, criteria, priorities and procedures for decision-making are sometimes non-transparent, frequently vary considerably across equivalent decision-bodies, do not always consider the broader benefits of new health-measures, and therefore do not necessarily adequately represent the relevant stakeholder-spectrum. Areas covered: To address these issues in the context of the evaluation of new vaccines, we have proposed a first baseline set of core evaluation criteria, primarily selected by members of the vaccine research community, and suggested their implementation in vaccine evaluation procedures. In this communication, we review the consequences and utility of stakeholder-centered core considerations to increase transparency in and accountability of decision-making procedures, in general, and of the benefits gained by their inclusion in Multi-Criteria-Decision-Analysis tools, exemplified by SMART Vaccines, specifically. Expert commentary: To increase effectiveness and comparability of health decision outcomes, decision procedures should be properly standardized across equivalent (national) decision bodies. To this end, including stakeholder-centered criteria in decision procedures would significantly increase their transparency and accountability, support international capacity building to improve health, and reduce societal costs and inequity resulting from suboptimal health decision-making.

Single-photon decision maker

Science.gov (United States)