WorldWideScience

Sample records for decision theory results

  1. Statistical Decision Theory Estimation, Testing, and Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Liese, Friedrich

    2008-01-01

    Suitable for advanced graduate students and researchers in mathematical statistics and decision theory, this title presents an account of the concepts and a treatment of the major results of classical finite sample size decision theory and modern asymptotic decision theory

  2. An introduction to decision theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterson, M.B.

    2009-01-01

    This up-to-date introduction to decision theory offers comprehensive and accessible discussions of decision making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory and social choice

  3. An overview of decision theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, S.O.

    1991-01-01

    This paper has been written to provide a non-technical overview of modern decision theory and to identify some of the major ways in which decision theory is relevant to the nuclear waste issue. It concludes that the use of decision theory in the nuclear waste issue should be further developed, and more sophisticated tools should be made used of. In particular, the application of models for uncertainty and for collective decision-making is warranted, and the same applies to models that include the earlier phases of the decision-making process. (92 refs.)

  4. Rationality, Theory Acceptance and Decision Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Nicolas Kaufmann

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available Following Kuhn's main thesis according to which theory revision and acceptance is always paradigm relative, I propose to outline some possible consequences of such a view. First, asking the question in what sense Bayesian decision theory could serve as the appropriate (normative theory of rationality examined from the point of view of the epistemology of theory acceptance, I argue that Bayesianism leads to a narrow conception of theory acceptance. Second, regarding the different types of theory revision, i.e. expansion, contraction, replacement and residuals shifts, I extract from Kuhn's view a series of indications showing that theory replacement cannot be rationalized within the framework of Bayesian decision theory, not even within a more sophisticated version of that model. Third, and finally, I will point to the need for a more comprehensive model of rationality than the Bayesian expected utility maximization model, the need for a model which could better deal with the different aspects of theory replacement. I will show that Kuhn's distinction between normal and revolutionary science gives us several hints for a more adequate theory of rationality in science. I will also show that Kuhn is not in a position to fully articulate his main ideas and that he well be confronted with a serious problem concerning collective choice of a paradigm.

  5. Elementary decision theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chernoff, Herman

    1988-01-01

    This well-respected introduction to statistics and statistical theory covers data processing, probability and random variables, utility and descriptive statistics, computation of Bayes strategies, models, testing hypotheses, and much more. 1959 edition.

  6. A theory-based decision aid for patients with cancer: results of feasibility and acceptability testing of DecisionKEYS for cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollen, Patricia J; Gralla, Richard J; Jones, Randy A; Thomas, Christopher Y; Brenin, David R; Weiss, Geoffrey R; Schroen, Anneke T; Petroni, Gina R

    2013-03-01

    Appropriate utilization of treatment is a goal for all patients undergoing cancer treatment. Proper treatment maximizes benefit and limits exposure to unnecessary measures. This report describes findings of the feasibility and acceptability of implementing a short, clinic-based decision aid and presents an in-depth clinical profile of the participants. This descriptive study used a prospective, quantitative approach to obtain the feasibility and acceptability of a decision aid (DecisionKEYS for Balancing Choices) for use in clinical settings. It combined results of trials of patients with three different common malignancies. All groups used the same decision aid series. Participants included 80 patients with solid tumors (22 with newly diagnosed breast cancer, 19 with advanced prostate cancer, and 39 with advanced lung cancer) and their 80 supporters as well as their physicians and nurses, for a total of 160 participants and 10 health professionals. The decision aid was highly acceptable to patient and supporter participants in all diagnostic groups. It was feasible for use in clinic settings; the overall value was rated highly. Of six physicians, all found the interactive format with the help of the nurse as feasible and acceptable. Nurses also rated the decision aid favorably. This intervention provides the opportunity to enhance decision making about cancer treatment and warrants further study including larger and more diverse groups. Strengths of the study included a theoretical grounding, feasibility testing of a practical clinic-based intervention, and summative evaluation of acceptability of the intervention by patient and supporter pairs. Further research also is needed to test the effectiveness of the decision aid in diverse clinical settings and to determine if this intervention can decrease overall costs.

  7. Prospect theory, reference points, and health decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Schwartz

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available In preventative health decisions, such as the decision to undergo an invasive screening test or treatment, people may be deterred from selecting the test because its perceived disutility relative to not testing is greater than the utility associated with prevention of possible disease. The prospect theory editing operation, by which a decision maker's reference point is determined, can have important effects on the disutility of the test. On the basis of the prospect theory value function, this paper develops two approaches to reducing disutility by directing the decision maker's attention to either (actual past or (expected future losses that result in shifted reference points. After providing a graphical description of the approaches and a mathematical proof of the direction of their effect on judgment, we briefly illustrate the potential value of these approaches with examples from qualitative research on prostate cancer treatment decisions.

  8. Processing Information in Quantum Decision Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.

    2008-01-01

    A survey is given summarizing the state of the art of describing information processing in Quantum Decision Theory, which has been recently advanced as a novel variant of decision making, based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intended actions. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention int...

  9. A philosophical assessment of decision theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2012-01-01

    modern axiomatic decision theory is an instance of fundamental measurement theory. This is then followed by a thorough introduction to Savage’s version of modern axiomatic decision theory. Turning to the interpretation of the theory, the maxim “maximize expected utility,” which stems from classical...... assignments. In the modern approach, the action guidance is to conform to the axioms. Analyzing decision theory as a theory of good, the maxim “maximize expected goodness” repeats the misunderstanding. Moreover, it implies risk neutrality about good and a cardinal measure of good, and both are problematic......The significance of decision theory consists of giving an account of rational decision making under circumstances of uncertainty. This question is important both from the point of view of what is in our personal interest and from the point of view of what is ethically right. But decision theory...

  10. Applications of decision theory to test-based decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    1987-01-01

    The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be

  11. Expected utility versus expected regret theory versions of decision curve analysis do generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hozo, Iztok; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2018-02-01

    Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a widely used method for evaluating diagnostic tests and predictive models. It was developed based on expected utility theory (EUT) and has been reformulated using expected regret theory (ERG). Under certain circumstances, these 2 formulations yield different results. Here we describe these situations and explain the variation. We compare the derivations of the EUT- and ERG-based formulations of DCA for a typical medical decision problem: "treat none," "treat all," or "use model" to guide treatment. We illustrate the differences between the 2 formulations when applied to the following clinical question: at which probability of death we should refer a terminally ill patient to hospice? Both DCA formulations yielded identical but mirrored results when treatment effects are ignored; they generated significantly different results otherwise. Treatment effect has a significant effect on the results derived by EUT DCA and less so on ERG DCA. The elicitation of specific values for disutilities affected the results even more significantly in the context of EUT DCA, whereas no such elicitation was required within the ERG framework. EUT and ERG DCA generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account. The magnitude of the difference depends on the effect of treatment and the disutilities associated with disease and treatment effects. This is important to realize as the current practice guidelines are uniformly based on EUT; the same recommendations can significantly differ if they are derived based on ERG framework. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. From conditional oughts to qualitative decision theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, Judea

    1994-01-01

    The primary theme of this investigation is a decision theoretic account of conditional ought statements (e.g., 'You ought to do A, if C') that rectifies glaring deficiencies in classical deontic logic. The resulting account forms a sound basis for qualitative decision theory, thus providing a framework for qualitative planning under uncertainty. In particular, we show that adding causal relationships (in the form of a single graph) as part of an epistemic state is sufficient to facilitate the analysis of action sequences, their consequences, their interaction with observations, their expected utilities, and the synthesis of plans and strategies under uncertainty.

  13. Quantum Decision Theory in Simple Risky Choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favre, Maroussia; Wittwer, Amrei; Heinimann, Hans Rudolf; Yukalov, Vyacheslav I; Sornette, Didier

    2016-01-01

    Quantum decision theory (QDT) is a recently developed theory of decision making based on the mathematics of Hilbert spaces, a framework known in physics for its application to quantum mechanics. This framework formalizes the concept of uncertainty and other effects that are particularly manifest in cognitive processes, which makes it well suited for the study of decision making. QDT describes a decision maker's choice as a stochastic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of an objective utility factor and a subjective attraction factor. QDT offers a prediction for the average effect of subjectivity on decision makers, the quarter law. We examine individual and aggregated (group) data, and find that the results are in good agreement with the quarter law at the level of groups. At the individual level, it appears that the quarter law could be refined in order to reflect individual characteristics. This article revisits the formalism of QDT along a concrete example and offers a practical guide to researchers who are interested in applying QDT to a dataset of binary lotteries in the domain of gains.

  14. Quantum Decision Theory in Simple Risky Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favre, Maroussia; Wittwer, Amrei; Heinimann, Hans Rudolf; Yukalov, Vyacheslav I.; Sornette, Didier

    2016-01-01

    Quantum decision theory (QDT) is a recently developed theory of decision making based on the mathematics of Hilbert spaces, a framework known in physics for its application to quantum mechanics. This framework formalizes the concept of uncertainty and other effects that are particularly manifest in cognitive processes, which makes it well suited for the study of decision making. QDT describes a decision maker’s choice as a stochastic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of an objective utility factor and a subjective attraction factor. QDT offers a prediction for the average effect of subjectivity on decision makers, the quarter law. We examine individual and aggregated (group) data, and find that the results are in good agreement with the quarter law at the level of groups. At the individual level, it appears that the quarter law could be refined in order to reflect individual characteristics. This article revisits the formalism of QDT along a concrete example and offers a practical guide to researchers who are interested in applying QDT to a dataset of binary lotteries in the domain of gains. PMID:27936217

  15. Academic decision making and prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mowrer, Robert R; Davidson, William B

    2011-08-01

    Two studies are reported that investigate the applicability of prospect theory to college students' academic decision making. Exp. 1 failed to provide support for the risk-seeking portion of the fourfold pattern predicted by prospect theory but did find the greater weighting of losses over gains. Using a more sensitive dependent measure, in Exp. 2 the results of the first experiment were replicated in terms of the gain-loss effect and also found some support for the fourfold pattern in the interaction between probabilities and gain versus loss. The greatest risk-seeking was found in the high probability loss condition.

  16. Interference and inequality in quantum decision theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheon, Taksu; Takahashi, Taiki

    2010-01-01

    The quantum decision theory is examined in its simplest form of two-condition two-choice setting. A set of inequalities to be satisfied by any quantum conditional probability describing the decision process is derived. Experimental data indicating the breakdown of classical explanations are critically examined with quantum theory using the full set of quantum phases.

  17. Interference and inequality in quantum decision theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheon, Taksu, E-mail: taksu.cheon@kochi-tech.ac.j [Laboratory of Physics, Kochi University of Technology, Tosa Yamada, Kochi 782-8502 (Japan); Takahashi, Taiki, E-mail: ttakahashi@lynx.let.hokudai.ac.j [Laboratory of Social Psychology, Department of Behavioral Science, Faculty of Letters, Hokkaido University, N.10, W.7, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-0810 (Japan)

    2010-12-01

    The quantum decision theory is examined in its simplest form of two-condition two-choice setting. A set of inequalities to be satisfied by any quantum conditional probability describing the decision process is derived. Experimental data indicating the breakdown of classical explanations are critically examined with quantum theory using the full set of quantum phases.

  18. Salience Theory of Judicial Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Pedro Bordalo; Nicola Gennaioli; Andrei Shleifer

    2015-01-01

    We present a model of judicial decision making in which the judge overweights the salient facts of the case. The context of the judicial decision, which is comparative by nature, shapes which aspects of the case stand out and draw the judge’s attention. By focusing judicial attention on such salient aspects of the case, legally irrelevant information can affect judicial decisions. Our model accounts for a range of recent experimental evidence that bears on the psychology of judicial decisions...

  19. Some Links Between Game Theory and Decision Theory in Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Dominika Crnjac; Goran Martinovic

    2009-01-01

    Certain optimal strategies based upon game theory are given in this paper. A decision-making function and a risk function are explained. Decision-making criteria are applied for determining best decision-making functions with respect to a specific criterion. Special attention is given to the minimax criterion.

  20. Bayesian decision theory : A simple toy problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Erp, H.R.N.; Linger, R.O.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2016-01-01

    We give here a comparison of the expected outcome theory, the expected utility theory, and the Bayesian decision theory, by way of a simple numerical toy problem in which we look at the investment willingness to avert a high impact low probability event. It will be found that for this toy problem

  1. Analyzing Test-Taking Behavior: Decision Theory Meets Psychometric Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budescu, David V; Bo, Yuanchao

    2015-12-01

    We investigate the implications of penalizing incorrect answers to multiple-choice tests, from the perspective of both test-takers and test-makers. To do so, we use a model that combines a well-known item response theory model with prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47:263-91, 1979). Our results reveal that when test-takers are fully informed of the scoring rule, the use of any penalty has detrimental effects for both test-takers (they are always penalized in excess, particularly those who are risk averse and loss averse) and test-makers (the bias of the estimated scores, as well as the variance and skewness of their distribution, increase as a function of the severity of the penalty).

  2. Decision theory applied to radioactive repository construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heilbron Filho, Paulo Fernando Lavalle; Pontedeiro, Elizabeth May

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this article is to present, through the presentation of an example, the applicability of the decision theory on the selection and construction of a repository for low and intermediate radioactive waste. (author)

  3. Quantum theory of measurements as quantum decision theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

    2015-01-01

    Theory of quantum measurements is often classified as decision theory. An event in decision theory corresponds to the measurement of an observable. This analogy looks clear for operationally testable simple events. However, the situation is essentially more complicated in the case of composite events. The most difficult point is the relation between decisions under uncertainty and measurements under uncertainty. We suggest a unified language for describing the processes of quantum decision making and quantum measurements. The notion of quantum measurements under uncertainty is introduced. We show that the correct mathematical foundation for the theory of measurements under uncertainty, as well as for quantum decision theory dealing with uncertain events, requires the use of positive operator-valued measure that is a generalization of projection-valued measure. The latter is appropriate for operationally testable events, while the former is necessary for characterizing operationally uncertain events. In both decision making and quantum measurements, one has to distinguish composite nonentangled events from composite entangled events. Quantum probability can be essentially different from classical probability only for entangled events. The necessary condition for the appearance of an interference term in the quantum probability is the occurrence of entangled prospects and the existence of an entangled strategic state of a decision maker or of an entangled statistical state of a measuring device

  4. Complex Decision Making Theory and Practice

    CERN Document Server

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan; Spector, J Michael

    2007-01-01

    The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV:...

  5. Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

    2000-01-01

    Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

  6. A Canonical Theory of Dynamic Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P.; Glasspool, David W.

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering. PMID:23565100

  7. A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John eFox

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making behaviour is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualisation of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem-solving, planning and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuro-psychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering.

  8. Quantum decision theory as quantum theory of measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yukalov, V.I.; Sornette, D.

    2008-01-01

    We present a general theory of quantum information processing devices, that can be applied to human decision makers, to atomic multimode registers, or to molecular high-spin registers. Our quantum decision theory is a generalization of the quantum theory of measurement, endowed with an action ring, a prospect lattice and a probability operator measure. The algebra of probability operators plays the role of the algebra of local observables. Because of the composite nature of prospects and of the entangling properties of the probability operators, quantum interference terms appear, which make actions noncommutative and the prospect probabilities nonadditive. The theory provides the basis for explaining a variety of paradoxes typical of the application of classical utility theory to real human decision making. The principal advantage of our approach is that it is formulated as a self-consistent mathematical theory, which allows us to explain not just one effect but actually all known paradoxes in human decision making. Being general, the approach can serve as a tool for characterizing quantum information processing by means of atomic, molecular, and condensed-matter systems

  9. Decision theory applied to image quality control in radiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessa, Patrícia S; Caous, Cristofer A; Arantes, Paula R; Amaro, Edson; de Souza, Fernando M Campello

    2008-11-13

    The present work aims at the application of the decision theory to radiological image quality control (QC) in diagnostic routine. The main problem addressed in the framework of decision theory is to accept or reject a film lot of a radiology service. The probability of each decision of a determined set of variables was obtained from the selected films. Based on a radiology service routine a decision probability function was determined for each considered group of combination characteristics. These characteristics were related to the film quality control. These parameters were also framed in a set of 8 possibilities, resulting in 256 possible decision rules. In order to determine a general utility application function to access the decision risk, we have used a simple unique parameter called r. The payoffs chosen were: diagnostic's result (correct/incorrect), cost (high/low), and patient satisfaction (yes/no) resulting in eight possible combinations. Depending on the value of r, more or less risk will occur related to the decision-making. The utility function was evaluated in order to determine the probability of a decision. The decision was made with patients or administrators' opinions from a radiology service center. The model is a formal quantitative approach to make a decision related to the medical imaging quality, providing an instrument to discriminate what is really necessary to accept or reject a film or a film lot. The method presented herein can help to access the risk level of an incorrect radiological diagnosis decision.

  10. Game theory decisions, interaction and evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Webb, James N

    2007-01-01

    This introduction to game theory is written from a mathematical perspective. Its primary purpose is to be a first course for undergraduate students of mathematics, but it also contains material which will be of interest to advanced students or researchers in biology and economics. The outstanding feature of the book is that it provides a unified account of three types of decision problem: Situations involving a single decision-maker: in which a sequence of choices is to be made in "a game against nature". This introduces the basic ideas of optimality and decision processes. Classical game theory: in which the interactions of two or more decision-makers are considered. This leads to the concept of the Nash equilibrium. Evolutionary game theory: in which the changing structure of a population of interacting decision makers is considered. This leads to the ideas of evolutionarily stable strategies and replicator dynamics. An understanding of basic calculus and probability is assumed but no prior knowledge of gam...

  11. SUMMARY OF THEORIES IN CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herczeg Adrienn

    2014-07-01

    In Hungary the capital structure of enterprises changed significantly since 1990, but it is true, that their decisions about the capital can not fit with neither theoretical appeal totally. There is no universal theory of the debt-equity choice, and no reason to expect one.

  12. Decision Utility Theory: Back to von Neumann, Morgenstern, and Markowitz

    OpenAIRE

    Kontek, Krzysztof

    2010-01-01

    Prospect Theory (1979) and its Cumulative version (1992) argue for probability weighting to explain lottery choices. Decision Utility Theory presents an alternative solution, which makes no use of this concept. The new theory distinguishes decision and perception utility, postulates a double S-shaped decision utility curve similar to one hypothesized by Markowitz (1952), and applies the expected decision utility value similarly to the theory by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944). Decision Uti...

  13. A theory of Bayesian decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Karni, Edi

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a complete, choice-based, axiomatic Bayesian decision theory. It introduces a new choice set consisting of information-contingent plans for choosing actions and bets and subjective expected utility model with effect-dependent utility functions and action-dependent subjective probabilities which, in conjunction with the updating of the probabilities using Bayes’ rule, gives rise to a unique prior and a set of action-dependent posterior probabilities representing the decisio...

  14. How to make the best decision. Philosophical aspects of clinical decision theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulff, H R

    1981-01-01

    An attempt is made to discuss some of the philosophical implications of the use of decision-analytic techniques. The probabilities of a decision analysis are subjective measures of belief, and it is concluded that clinicians base their subjective beliefs on both recorded observations and theoretical knowledge. The clinical decision maker also evaluates the consequences of his actions, and therefore clinical decision theory transcends medical science. A number of different schools of normative ethics are mentioned to illustrate the complexity of everyday decision making. The philosophical terminology is useful for the analysis of clinical problems, and it is argued that clinical decision making has both a teleological and a deontological component. The results of decision-analytic studies depend on such factors as the wealth of the country, the organization of the health service, and cultural norms.

  15. Generation companies decision-making modeling by linear control theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, Gerald B.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)

  16. Decision theory with resource-bounded agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, Joseph Y; Pass, Rafael; Seeman, Lior

    2014-04-01

    There have been two major lines of research aimed at capturing resource-bounded players in game theory. The first, initiated by Rubinstein (), charges an agent for doing costly computation; the second, initiated by Neyman (), does not charge for computation, but limits the computation that agents can do, typically by modeling agents as finite automata. We review recent work on applying both approaches in the context of decision theory. For the first approach, we take the objects of choice in a decision problem to be Turing machines, and charge players for the "complexity" of the Turing machine chosen (e.g., its running time). This approach can be used to explain well-known phenomena like first-impression-matters biases (i.e., people tend to put more weight on evidence they hear early on) and belief polarization (two people with different prior beliefs, hearing the same evidence, can end up with diametrically opposed conclusions) as the outcomes of quite rational decisions. For the second approach, we model people as finite automata, and provide a simple algorithm that, on a problem that captures a number of settings of interest, provably performs optimally as the number of states in the automaton increases. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  17. Info-gap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2006-01-01

    Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term ""decision analyst"" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts,

  18. Quantum decision-maker theory and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail; Meyers, Ronald E.; Deacon, Keith S.

    2000-07-01

    A quantum device simulating the human decision making process is introduced. It consists of quantum recurrent nets generating stochastic processes which represent the motor dynamics, and of classical neural nets describing the evolution of probabilities of these processes which represent the mental dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from the mental to motor dynamics which changes the stochastic matrix based upon the probability distribution. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledge- base stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions. As a result, the coupled motor-mental dynamics is described by a nonlinear version of Markov chains which can decrease entropy without an external source of information. Applications to common sense based decisions as well as to evolutionary games are discussed. An example exhibiting self-organization is computed using quantum computer simulation. Force on force and mutual aircraft engagements using the quantum decision maker dynamics are considered.

  19. Experimental results surprise quantum theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, C.

    1986-01-01

    Interest in results from Darmstadt that positron-electron pairs are created in nuclei with high atomic numbers (in the Z range from 180-188) lies in the occurrence of a quantized positron kinetic energy peak at 300. The results lend substance to the contention of Erich Bagge that the traditionally accepted symmetries in positron-electron emission do not exist and, therefore, there is no need to posit the existence of the neutrino. The search is on for the decay of a previously unknown boson to account for the findings, which also points to the need for a major revision in quantum theory. 1 figure

  20. Universal prescriptivism: traditional moral decision-making theory revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crigger, N J

    1994-09-01

    Universal prescriptivism is a recently developed moral decision-making theory that combines utilitarian and Kantian theories with two levels of moral thinking. A combined approach offers a creative solution to the weaknesses inherent in traditional moral theories. The paper describes the theory and discusses important implications for nursing education, practical ethical decision-making, and research. The relationship of an ethical theory of caring to traditional moral theory is discussed.

  1. Decision-making: Theory and practice

    OpenAIRE

    SM Turpin; MA Marais

    2004-01-01

    This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, ...

  2. Preference reversal in quantum decision theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yukalov, Vyacheslav I.; Sornette, Didier

    2015-01-01

    We consider the psychological effect of preference reversal and show that it finds a natural explanation in the frame of quantum decision theory. When people choose between lotteries with non-negative payoffs, they prefer a more certain lottery because of uncertainty aversion. But when people evaluate lottery prices, e.g., for selling to others the right to play them, they do this more rationally, being less subject to behavioral biases. This difference can be explained by the presence of the attraction factors entering the expression of quantum probabilities. Only the existence of attraction factors can explain why, considering two lotteries with close utility factors, a decision maker prefers one of them when choosing, but evaluates higher the other one when pricing. We derive a general quantitative criterion for the preference reversal to occur that relates the utilities of the two lotteries to the attraction factors under choosing vs. pricing and test successfully its application on experiments by Tversky et al. We also show that the planning paradox can be treated as a kind of preference reversal. PMID:26500592

  3. Decision-making: Theory and practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SM Turpin

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, and the use of intuition. In terms of the use of decision support technology, the use of self-help tools, such as office software, was clearly favoured.

  4. Decision theory for discrimination-aware classification

    KAUST Repository

    Kamiran, Faisal

    2012-12-01

    Social discrimination (e.g., against females) arising from data mining techniques is a growing concern worldwide. In recent years, several methods have been proposed for making classifiers learned over discriminatory data discriminationaware. However, these methods suffer from two major shortcomings: (1) They require either modifying the discriminatory data or tweaking a specific classification algorithm and (2) They are not flexible w.r.t. discrimination control and multiple sensitive attribute handling. In this paper, we present two solutions for discrimination-aware classification that neither require data modification nor classifier tweaking. Our first and second solutions exploit, respectively, the reject option of probabilistic classifier(s) and the disagreement region of general classifier ensembles to reduce discrimination. We relate both solutions with decision theory for better understanding of the process. Our experiments using real-world datasets demonstrate that our solutions outperform existing state-ofthe-art methods, especially at low discrimination which is a significant advantage. The superior performance coupled with flexible control over discrimination and easy applicability to multiple sensitive attributes makes our solutions an important step forward in practical discrimination-aware classification. © 2012 IEEE.

  5. Some Results on Fuzzy Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel Garrido

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The apparition of Fuzzy Logic has had a double repercussion on scientific research, and has provoked two types of reactions. From a theoretical point of view, it is indeed a very useful
    generalization of the classical Set Theory proposed by Boole and Cantor, in this way making possible our analysis of uncertainty. But unfortunately, in his first steps it had to avoid the assaults of routine minds from the often too rigid mathematical field. This situation improved later, especially in nations with less deep-rooted prejudices. And by contrast, the new theory has obtained a strong rooting in nations with new and increasing scientific potential, such as China, Japan, and
    South Korea. More recently it has also become rooted in European countries, such Hungary, Spain, and Romania, mainly due to its successful technical applications. We analyze some essential aspects of this new and powerful tool of Mathematical Analysis.

  6. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  7. Decision-making: Theory and Practice

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Turpin, SM

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available of decision support technology. Much variation was found in people’s personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information...

  8. Decision and game theory in management with intuitionistic fuzzy sets

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Deng-Feng

    2014-01-01

    The focus of this book is on establishing theories and methods of both decision and game analysis in management using intuitionistic fuzzy sets. It proposes a series of innovative theories, models and methods such as the representation theorem and extension principle of intuitionistic fuzzy sets, ranking methods of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, non-linear and linear programming methods for intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making and (interval-valued) intuitionistic fuzzy matrix games. These theories and methods form the theory system of intuitionistic fuzzy decision making and games, which is not only remarkably different from those of the traditional, Bayes and/or fuzzy decision theory but can also provide an effective and efficient tool for solving complex management problems. Since there is a certain degree of inherent hesitancy in real-life management, which cannot always be described by the traditional mathematical methods and/or fuzzy set theory, this book offers an effective approach to us...

  9. Phenomenological theory of collective decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zafeiris, Anna; Koman, Zsombor; Mones, Enys

    2017-01-01

    An essential task of groups is to provide efficient solutions for the complex problems they face. Indeed, considerable efforts have been devoted to the question of collective decision-making related to problems involving a single dominant feature. Here we introduce a quantitative formalism...... for finding the optimal distribution of the group members’ competences in the more typical case when the underlying problem is complex, i.e., multidimensional. Thus, we consider teams that are aiming at obtaining the best possible answer to a problem having a number of independent sub-problems. Our approach...... is based on a generic scheme for the process of evaluating the proposed solutions (i.e., negotiation). We demonstrate that the best performing groups have at least one specialist for each sub-problem — but a far less intuitive result is that finding the optimal solution by the interacting group members...

  10. Intentions and plans in decision and game theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hees, M.; Roy, O.; Verbeek, B.

    2008-01-01

    Given the important role that intentions play in the way we make decisions, we would expect intentions to occupy a substantial place in any theory of action. Surprisingly enough, in what is perhaps the most influential theory of action, rational choice theory, explicit reference is made to actions,

  11. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

  12. Decision theory, reinforcement learning, and the brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayan, Peter; Daw, Nathaniel D

    2008-12-01

    Decision making is a core competence for animals and humans acting and surviving in environments they only partially comprehend, gaining rewards and punishments for their troubles. Decision-theoretic concepts permeate experiments and computational models in ethology, psychology, and neuroscience. Here, we review a well-known, coherent Bayesian approach to decision making, showing how it unifies issues in Markovian decision problems, signal detection psychophysics, sequential sampling, and optimal exploration and discuss paradigmatic psychological and neural examples of each problem. We discuss computational issues concerning what subjects know about their task and how ambitious they are in seeking optimal solutions; we address algorithmic topics concerning model-based and model-free methods for making choices; and we highlight key aspects of the neural implementation of decision making.

  13. Advances in the application of decision theory to test-based decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    This paper reviews recent research in the Netherlands on the application of decision theory to test-based decision making about personnel selection and student placement. The review is based on an earlier model proposed for the classification of decision problems, and emphasizes an empirical

  14. Prospect theory or construal level theory? Diminishing sensitivity vs. psychological distance in risky decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautmann, Stefan T; van de Kuilen, Gijs

    2012-01-01

    Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk that are typical of agency situations. Unnoticed in the literature, the two theories make contradicting predictions. The current study investigates which theory provides a better description of risky decisions in the presence of temporal, spatial, and social factors. We find that the psychophysical effects modeled by prospect theory dominate the psychological distance effects of construal level theory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Decision making by hybrid probabilistic: Possibilistic utility theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pap Endre

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available It is presented an approach to decision theory based upon nonprobabilistic uncertainty. There is an axiomatization of the hybrid probabilistic possibilistic mixtures based on a pair of triangular conorm and triangular norm satisfying restricted distributivity law, and the corresponding non-additive Smeasure. This is characterized by the families of operations involved in generalized mixtures, based upon a previous result on the characterization of the pair of continuous t-norm and t-conorm such that the former is restrictedly distributive over the latter. The obtained family of mixtures combines probabilistic and idempotent (possibilistic mixtures via a threshold.

  16. Continuous-time Markov decision processes theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Xianping

    2009-01-01

    This volume provides the first book entirely devoted to recent developments on the theory and applications of continuous-time Markov decision processes (MDPs). The MDPs presented here include most of the cases that arise in applications.

  17. Justifying Design Decisions with Theory-based Design Principles

    OpenAIRE

    Schermann, Michael;Gehlert, Andreas;Pohl, Klaus;Krcmar, Helmut

    2014-01-01

    Although the role of theories in design research is recognized, we show that little attention has been paid on how to use theories when designing new artifacts. We introduce design principles as a new methodological approach to address this problem. Design principles extend the notion of design rationales that document how a design decision emerged. We extend the concept of design rationales by using theoretical hypotheses to support or object to design decisions. At the example of developing...

  18. Group Decisions in Biodiversity Conservation: Implications from Game Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Frank, David M.; Sarkar, Sahotra

    2010-01-01

    Background Decision analysis and game theory [1], [2] have proved useful tools in various biodiversity conservation planning and modeling contexts [3]?[5]. This paper shows how game theory may be used to inform group decisions in biodiversity conservation scenarios by modeling conflicts between stakeholders to identify Pareto?inefficient Nash equilibria. These are cases in which each agent pursuing individual self?interest leads to a worse outcome for all, relative to other feasible outcomes....

  19. Aristotle and the Theory of Decision (Prohairesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Shirkhan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The term of prohairesis was systematically entered in philosophical debates by Aristotle. This concept is generally translated as intention, will, purpose, choice, purposive choice, rational choice, and deliberative choice that the later seems to be Aristotle’s definition of prohairesis. To understand the internal structure of prohairesiss, we have to understand the conceptions of action, intention, belief, whish, will, and virtues. For Aristotle if an action will be done through a decision, this action is voluntary, but its contrary is not credible. He believes that the children and animals act voluntarily, but they have not any decision, because they have not any deliberation.

  20. Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1994-01-01

    Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision

  1. Validating the predictions of case-based decision theory

    OpenAIRE

    Radoc, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Real-life decision-makers typically do not know all possible outcomes arising from alternative courses of action. Instead, when people face a problem, they may rely on the recollection of their past personal experience: the situation, the action taken, and the accompanying consequence. In addition, the applicability of a past experience in decision-making may depend on how similar the current problem is to situations encountered previously. Case-based decision theory (CBDT), proposed by Itzha...

  2. Decision theory on the quality evaluation of medical images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lessa, Patricia Silva

    2001-10-01

    The problem of quality has been a constant issue in every organization.One is always seeking to produce more, to do it at a lower cost, and to do it with better quality. However, in this country, there is no radiographic film quality control system for radiographic services. The tittle that actually gets done is essentially ad hoc and superficial. The implications of this gap, along with some other shortcomings that exist in process as a whole (the state of the x-ray equipment, the adequate to use in order to obtain a radiography, the quality of the film, the processing of the film, the brightness and homogeneity of the viewing boxes, the ability of the radiologist), have a very negative impact on the quality of the medical image, and, as result, to the quality of the medical diagnosis and therapy. It frequently happens that many radiographs have to be repeated, which leads to an increase of the patient's exposure to radiation, as well as of the cost of the procedure for the patient. Low quality radiographs that are not repeated greatly increase the probability of a wrong diagnosis, and consequently, of inadequate therapeutical procedures, thus producing increased incidence of bad outcomes and higher costs. The paradigm proposed in order to establish a system for the measurement of the image's quality is Decision Theory. The problem of the assessment of the image is studied by proposing a Decision Theory approach. The review of the literature reveals a great concern with the quality of the image, along with an absence of an adequate paradigm and several essentially empirical procedures. Image parameters are developed in order to formalize the problem in terms of Decision Theory, and various aspects of image digitalisation are exposed. Finally, a solution is presented, including a protocol for quality control. (author)

  3. Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Should the model for risk-informed regulation be game theory rather than decision theory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bier, Vicki M; Lin, Shi-Woei

    2013-02-01

    deception), to identify optimal regulatory strategies. Therefore, we believe that the types of regulatory interactions analyzed in this article are better modeled using game theory rather than decision theory. In particular, the goals of this article are to review the relevant literature in game theory and regulatory economics (to stimulate interest in this area among risk analysts), and to present illustrative results showing how the application of game theory can provide useful insights into the theory and practice of risk-informed regulation. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2014-06-01

    Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  6. Proxy decision making and dementia: Using Construal Level Theory to analyse the thoughts of decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convey, Helen; Holt, Janet; Summers, Barbara

    2018-03-08

    This study explored the feasibility of using Construal Level Theory to analyse proxy decision maker thinking about a hypothetical ethical dilemma, relating to a person who has dementia. Proxy decision makers make decisions on behalf of individuals who are living with dementia when dementia affects that individual's decision making ability. Ethical dilemmas arise because there is a need to balance the individual's past and contemporary values and views. Understanding of how proxy decision makers respond is incomplete. Construal Level Theory contends that individuals imagine reactions and make predications about the future by crossing psychological distance. This involves abstract thinking, giving meaning to decisions. There is no empirical evidence of Construal Level Theory being used to analyse proxy decision maker thinking. Exploring the feasibility of using Construal Level Theory to understand dementia carer thinking regarding proxy decisions may provide insights which inform the support given. Descriptive qualitative research with semi-structured interviews. Seven participants were interviewed using a hypothetical dementia care scenario in February 2016. Interview transcripts were analysed for themes. Construal Level Theory was applied to analyse participant responses within themes using the Linguistic Category Model. Participants travelled across psychological distance, using abstract thinking to clarify goals and provide a basis for decisions. When thinking concretely participants established boundaries regarding the ethical dilemma. Construal Level Theory gives insight into proxy decision maker thinking and the levels of abstraction used. Understanding what dementia carers think about when making proxy decisions may help nurses to understand their perspectives and to provide appropriate support. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Prospect theory and the decision to move or stay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, William A V; Lisowski, William

    2017-09-05

    Migration has always involved stress and risk. More risk-averse households are less likely to move, while less risk-averse households will seek out opportunities and migrate. We investigate how the theoretical contributions of prospect theory, and specifically the endowment effect, can provide new understanding about decisions whether to migrate or not. We test the hypothesis that risk aversion extends the length of stay in the dwelling and, by extension, in the local labor and housing markets. How long people remain in place is a function, we hypothesize, of their independently self-assessed propensity to take risks, after controlling for a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. We use the theoretical insights of prospect theory and the endowment effect (the notion of the "use value" differing from the "exchange value") to explain the likelihood of staying after controlling for life-course events. The results confirm the explanatory power of self-assessed risk in the decision to migrate or stay and, equally important, confirm the role of the endowment effect.

  8. Modern Portfolio Theory: Some Main Results

    OpenAIRE

    Müller, Heinz H.

    2017-01-01

    This article summarizes some main results in modern portfolio theory. First, the Markowitz approach is presented. Then the capital asset pricing model is derived and its empirical testability is discussed. Afterwards Neumann-Morgenstern utility theory is applied to the portfolio problem. Finally, it is shown how optimal risk allocation in an economy may lead to portfolio insurance

  9. Prospect theory or construal level theory? Diminishing sensitivity vs. psychological distance in risky decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trautmann, S.T.; van de Kuilen, G.

    2012-01-01

    Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk

  10. A quantitative approach to choose among multiple mutually exclusive decisions: comparative expected utility theory

    OpenAIRE

    Zhu, Pengyu

    2018-01-01

    Mutually exclusive decisions have been studied for decades. Many well-known decision theories have been defined to help people either to make rational decisions or to interpret people's behaviors, such as expected utility theory, regret theory, prospect theory, and so on. The paper argues that none of these decision theories are designed to provide practical, normative and quantitative approaches for multiple mutually exclusive decisions. Different decision-makers should naturally make differ...

  11. Is expected utility theory normative for medical decision making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, B J

    1996-01-01

    Expected utility theory is felt by its proponents to be a normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. The theory starts with some simple axioms that are held to be rules that any rational person would follow. It can be shown that if one adheres to these axioms, a numerical quantity, generally referred to as utility, can be assigned to each possible outcome, with the preferred course of action being that which has the highest expected utility. One of these axioms, the independence principle, is controversial, and is frequently violated in experimental situations. Proponents of the theory hold that these violations are irrational. The independence principle is simply an axiom dictating consistency among preferences, in that it dictates that a rational agent should hold a specified preference given another stated preference. When applied to preferences between lotteries, the independence principle can be demonstrated to be a rule that is followed only when preferences are formed in a particular way. The logic of expected utility theory is that this demonstration proves that preferences should be formed in this way. An alternative interpretation is that this demonstrates that the independence principle is not a valid general rule of consistency, but in particular, is a rule that must be followed if one is to consistently apply the decision rule "choose the lottery that has the highest expected utility." This decision rule must be justified on its own terms as a valid rule of rationality by demonstration that violation would lead to decisions that conflict with the decision maker's goals. This rule does not appear to be suitable for medical decisions because often these are one-time decisions in which expectation, a long-run property of a random variable, would not seem to be applicable. This is particularly true for those decisions involving a non-trivial risk of death.

  12. Options theory and strategic investment decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mann, D.; Goobie, G.; MacMillan, L.

    1992-01-01

    The possible use of options pricing theory for evaluating long-term capital investments is discussed. Using the Black and Scholes option pricing model, five variables were evaluated for a hypothetical oil sands project. These variables are: stock price as determined by the earning power of the company; exercise price which equals the investment cost of the project; price standard deviation which is assumed to be 50%; the length of time for which the company will maintain its option to invest in the project, and finally the risk free rate which is approximately equal to the yield in long term government securities. A sensitivity analysis on these variables can provide management with information on how best to influence the option value. A more in-depth analysis could provide valuable information about strategic choice for large projects. 5 refs., 3 figs

  13. Scoring and Classifying Examinees Using Measurement Decision Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence M. Rudner

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes and evaluates the use of measurement decision theory (MDT to classify examinees based on their item response patterns. The model has a simple framework that starts with the conditional probabilities of examinees in each category or mastery state responding correctly to each item. The presented evaluation investigates: (1 the classification accuracy of tests scored using decision theory; (2 the effectiveness of different sequential testing procedures; and (3 the number of items needed to make a classification. A large percentage of examinees can be classified accurately with very few items using decision theory. A Java Applet for self instruction and software for generating, calibrating and scoring MDT data are provided.

  14. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.

    1985-01-01

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  15. A Theory of Utility Conditionals: Paralogical Reasoning from Decision-Theoretic Leakage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnefon, Jean-Francois

    2009-01-01

    Many "if p, then q" conditionals have decision-theoretic features, such as antecedents or consequents that relate to the utility functions of various agents. These decision-theoretic features leak into reasoning processes, resulting in various paralogical conclusions. The theory of utility conditionals offers a unified account of the various forms…

  16. Preference reversal in quantum decision theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We consider the psychological effect of preference reversal and showthat it finds a natural explanation in the frame of quantum decisiontheory. When people choose between lotteries with non-negative payoffs, they prefer a more certain lottery because of uncertainty aversion. But when people evaluate lottery prices, e.g. for selling to others the right to play them, they do this more rationally, being less subject to behavioral biases. This difference can be explained bythe presence of the attraction factors entering the expression of quantumprobabilities. Only the existence of attraction factors can explain why,considering two lotteries with close utility factors, a decision maker prefers one of them when choosing, but evaluates higher the other one when pricing. We derive a general quantitative criterion for the preference reversal to occur that relates the utilities of the two lotteries to the attraction factors under choosing versus pricing and test successfully its application on experiments by Tversky et al.We also show that the planning paradox can be treated as a kind of preference reversal.

  17. Technical Note: Application of Decision Theory Based Criteria for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Technical Note: Application of Decision Theory Based Criteria for Structural Appraisal of a Building during Construction. ... Nigerian Journal of Technology ... reliability of concrete in a structure during construction, a case study of laboratory block for College of Continuing Education, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State.

  18. Prospect theory on the brain? Toward a cognitive neuroscience of decision under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepel, Christopher; Fox, Craig R; Poldrack, Russell A

    2005-04-01

    Most decisions must be made without advance knowledge of their consequences. Economists and psychologists have devoted much attention to modeling decisions made under conditions of risk in which options can be characterized by a known probability distribution over possible outcomes. The descriptive shortcomings of classical economic models motivated the development of prospect theory (D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 4 (1979) 263-291; A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5 (4) (1992) 297-323) the most successful behavioral model of decision under risk. In the prospect theory, subjective value is modeled by a value function that is concave for gains, convex for losses, and steeper for losses than for gains; the impact of probabilities are characterized by a weighting function that overweights low probabilities and underweights moderate to high probabilities. We outline the possible neural bases of the components of prospect theory, surveying evidence from human imaging, lesion, and neuropharmacology studies as well as animal neurophysiology studies. These results provide preliminary suggestions concerning the neural bases of prospect theory that include a broad set of brain regions and neuromodulatory systems. These data suggest that focused studies of decision making in the context of quantitative models may provide substantial leverage towards a fuller understanding of the cognitive neuroscience of decision making.

  19. Decision-Making Theories and Models: A Discussion of Rational and Psychological Decision-Making Theories and Models: The Search for a Cultural-Ethical Decision-Making Model

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Arnaldo

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines rational and psychological decision-making models. Descriptive and normative methodologies such as attribution theory, schema theory, prospect theory, ambiguity model, game theory, and expected utility theory are discussed. The definition of culture is reviewed, and the relationship between culture and decision making is also highlighted as many organizations use a cultural-ethical decision-making model.

  20. An economic theory of patient decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Douglas O; DeMarco, Joseph P

    2005-01-01

    Patient autonomy, as exercised in the informed consent process, is a central concern in bioethics. The typical bioethicist's analysis of autonomy centers on decisional capacity--finding the line between autonomy and its absence. This approach leaves unexplored the structure of reasoning behind patient treatment decisions. To counter that approach, we present a microeconomic theory of patient decision-making regarding the acceptable level of medical treatment from the patient's perspective. We show that a rational patient's desired treatment level typically departs from the level yielding an absence of symptoms, the level we call ideal. This microeconomic theory demonstrates why patients have good reason not to pursue treatment to the point of absence of physical symptoms. We defend our view against possible objections that it is unrealistic and that it fails to adequately consider harm a patient may suffer by curtailing treatment. Our analysis is fruitful in various ways. It shows why decisions often considered unreasonable might be fully reasonable. It offers a theoretical account of how physician misinformation may adversely affect a patient's decision. It shows how billing costs influence patient decision-making. It indicates that health care professionals' beliefs about the 'unreasonable' attitudes of patients might often be wrong. It provides a better understanding of patient rationality that should help to ensure fuller information as well as increased respect for patient decision-making.

  1. Utility function under decision theory: A construction arbitration application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alozn, Ahmad E.; Galadari, Abdulla

    2017-08-01

    While a wide range of dispute resolution mechanisms exist, practitioners favor legally binding ones such as litigation and arbitration. Since initiating a litigation or arbitration case against a business partner may dissolve the business relationship between them, predicting the arbitrator's decision becomes valuable to the arbitrating parties. This paper proposes a construction-specific utility framework for the arbitrating party through decision theory, and based on expected utility theory. The proposed framework preserves the industry practicality and most importantly, considers direct short-term factors and indirect long-term factors as well. It is suggested that the arbitrating parties' utility functions could be then used to identify equilibrium points among them when interact via game theory principles, which would serve the purpose of predicting the arbitration outcome.

  2. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Bayesian inference and decision theory - A framework for decision making in natural resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, R.M.; Johnson, F.A.

    2003-01-01

    Bayesian inference and decision theory may be used in the solution of relatively complex problems of natural resource management, owing to recent advances in statistical theory and computing. In particular, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms provide a computational framework for fitting models of adequate complexity and for evaluating the expected consequences of alternative management actions. We illustrate these features using an example based on management of waterfowl habitat.

  4. Application of preprocessing filtering on Decision Tree C4.5 and rough set theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Joseph C. C.; Lin, Tsau Y.

    2001-03-01

    This paper compares two artificial intelligence methods: the Decision Tree C4.5 and Rough Set Theory on the stock market data. The Decision Tree C4.5 is reviewed with the Rough Set Theory. An enhanced window application is developed to facilitate the pre-processing filtering by introducing the feature (attribute) transformations, which allows users to input formulas and create new attributes. Also, the application produces three varieties of data set with delaying, averaging, and summation. The results prove the improvement of pre-processing by applying feature (attribute) transformations on Decision Tree C4.5. Moreover, the comparison between Decision Tree C4.5 and Rough Set Theory is based on the clarity, automation, accuracy, dimensionality, raw data, and speed, which is supported by the rules sets generated by both algorithms on three different sets of data.

  5. Combining Theory of Institutional Logics and Theory of Justification in Understanding Ambiguous Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westenholz, Ann

    I propose to understand decision making by combining theory of institutional logics (Friedland; Thornton, Ocasio & Lounsbury) and theory of justification (Boltanski and Thévenot). These two theoretical approaches are different but, at the same time, deal with the socially constructed plurality...... companies have located part of their business in Denmark. Finally I conclude and discuss why theory of institutional logics needs theory of justification and vice versa....... of the world nesting a macro-meso-micro level analysis. My argument is that both theories may learn from each other and enrich the study of ambiguous decision making. In the paper I describe, compare and combine the two theoretical approaches. I then illustrate the combined approach by a case where Chinese...

  6. Complex decision-making: initial results of an empirical study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available A brief survey of key literature on emotions and decision-making introduces an empirical study of a group of university students exploring the effects of decision-making complexity on error risk. The results clearly show that decision-making under stress in the experimental group produces significantly more errors than in the stress-free control group.

  7. Complex decision-making: initial results of an empirical study

    OpenAIRE

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2011-01-01

    A brief survey of key literature on emotions and decision-making introduces an empirical study of a group of university students exploring the effects of decision-making complexity on error risk. The results clearly show that decision-making under stress in the experimental group produces significantly more errors than in the stress-free control group.

  8. Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killeen, Peter R

    2006-08-01

    Traditional null hypothesis significance testing does not yield the probability of the null or its alternative and, therefore, cannot logically ground scientific decisions. The decision theory proposed here calculates the expected utility of an effect on the basis of (1) the probability of replicating it and (2) a utility function on its size. It takes significance tests--which place all value on the replicability of an effect and none on its magnitude--as a special case, one in which the cost of a false positive is revealed to be an order of magnitude greater than the value of a true positive. More realistic utility functions credit both replicability and effect size, integrating them for a single index of merit. The analysis incorporates opportunity cost and is consistent with alternate measures of effect size, such as r2 and information transmission, and with Bayesian model selection criteria. An alternate formulation is functionally equivalent to the formal theory, transparent, and easy to compute.

  9. Statistics and Probability Theory In Pursuit of Engineering Decision Support

    CERN Document Server

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2012-01-01

    This book provides the reader with the basic skills and tools of statistics and probability in the context of engineering modeling and analysis. The emphasis is on the application and the reasoning behind the application of these skills and tools for the purpose of enhancing  decision making in engineering. The purpose of the book is to ensure that the reader will acquire the required theoretical basis and technical skills such as to feel comfortable with the theory of basic statistics and probability. Moreover, in this book, as opposed to many standard books on the same subject, the perspective is to focus on the use of the theory for the purpose of engineering model building and decision making.  This work is suitable for readers with little or no prior knowledge on the subject of statistics and probability.

  10. Quantum Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, M.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.; Khrennikov, A.; Basieva, I.

    2011-01-01

    Recently a few authors pointed to a possibility to apply the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to cognitive psychology, in particular, to games of the Prisoners Dilemma (PD) type.6_18 In this paper, we discuss the problem of rationality in game theory and point out that the quantum uncertainty is similar to the uncertainty of knowledge, which a player feels subjectively in his decision-making.

  11. A hierarchical instrumental decision theory of nicotine dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogarth, Lee; Troisi, Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    It is important to characterize the learning processes governing tobacco-seeking in order to understand how best to treat this behavior. Most drug learning theories have adopted a Pavlovian framework wherein the conditioned response is the main motivational process. We favor instead a hierarchical instrumental decision account, wherein expectations about the instrumental contingency between voluntary tobacco-seeking and the receipt of nicotine reward determines the probability of executing this behavior. To support this view, we review titration and nicotine discrimination research showing that internal signals for deprivation/satiation modulate expectations about the current incentive value of smoking, thereby modulating the propensity of this behavior. We also review research on cue-reactivity which has shown that external smoking cues modulate expectations about the probability of the tobacco-seeking response being effective, thereby modulating the propensity of this behavior. Economic decision theory is then considered to elucidate how expectations about the value and probability of response-nicotine contingency are integrated to form an overall utility estimate for that option for comparison with qualitatively different, nonsubstitute reinforcers, to determine response selection. As an applied test for this hierarchical instrumental decision framework, we consider how well it accounts for individual liability to smoking uptake and perseveration, pharmacotherapy, cue-extinction therapies, and plain packaging. We conclude that the hierarchical instrumental account is successful in reconciling this broad range of phenomenon precisely because it accepts that multiple diverse sources of internal and external information must be integrated to shape the decision to smoke.

  12. Gauge theories as string theories: the first results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorsky, Aleksandr S

    2005-01-01

    The gauge/string theory duality in curved space is discussed mainly using a non-Abelian conformal N = 4 supersymmetric gauge theory and the theory of a closed superstring in the AdS 5 x S 5 metric as an example. It is shown that in the supergravity approximation, string duality yields the characteristics of a strong-coupling gauge theory. For a special shape of the contour, a Wilson loop expression is derived in the classical superstring approximation. The role of the hidden integrability in lower-loop calculations in gauge theory and in different approximations of string theory is discussed. It is demonstrated that in the large quantum-number limit, gauge theory operators can be described in terms of the dual string picture. Examples of metrics providing the dual description of gauge theories with broken conformal symmetry are presented, and formulations of the vacuum structure of such theories in terms of gravity are discussed. (reviews of topical problems)

  13. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2010-09-16

    Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

  14. Do the right thing: the assumption of optimality in lay decision theory and causal judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Samuel G B; Rips, Lance J

    2015-03-01

    Human decision-making is often characterized as irrational and suboptimal. Here we ask whether people nonetheless assume optimal choices from other decision-makers: Are people intuitive classical economists? In seven experiments, we show that an agent's perceived optimality in choice affects attributions of responsibility and causation for the outcomes of their actions. We use this paradigm to examine several issues in lay decision theory, including how responsibility judgments depend on the efficacy of the agent's actual and counterfactual choices (Experiments 1-3), individual differences in responsibility assignment strategies (Experiment 4), and how people conceptualize decisions involving trade-offs among multiple goals (Experiments 5-6). We also find similar results using everyday decision problems (Experiment 7). Taken together, these experiments show that attributions of responsibility depend not only on what decision-makers do, but also on the quality of the options they choose not to take. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The effect of the emotive decisions in prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonavia, Tomas

    2014-12-29

    The main purpose of this paper was to show that the certainty and reflection effects of prospect theory do not occur when stimuli have an affective value. To this end, 160 participants were asked to reply to a series of problems originally designed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), but modified according to the contributions of Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001). The sample was divided into four experimental conditions, two in a gain situation and two in a loss situation. In both cases, affect-rich and affect-poor stimuli were applied in sure and probable alternatives. The findings showed that, in agreement with our hypotheses, the affective value of the stimuli altered the outcome predicted by prospect theory, showing response patterns contrary to certainty and reflection effects (p ≤ .01 and p ≤ .05 respectively). Therefore, this research supports the influence of the emotions in the decision-making process, and should be extended to other aspects of prospect theory.

  16. Decision-oriented environmental assessment: An empirical study of its theory and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pischke, Frederik; Cashmore, Matthew

    2006-01-01

    The potential advantages of a decision-oriented theory of environmental assessment have long been recognised, but it is only in recent years that this topic has received concerted attention. This research advanced contemporary debate on environmental assessment through an empirically-informed evaluation of strategic theoretical and methodological issues associated with the practical application of decision-oriented theory. This was undertaken by critically analysing the decision-oriented Environmental Impact Assessment system of the German Development Cooperation (a bilateral development assistance agency) using a modified version of a recent conceptual and methodological development, Analytical Strategic Environmental Assessment. The results indicate that some aspects of decision-oriented theory offer considerable potential for environmental assessment process management, and should be employed routinely. Yet uncertainty remains about whether certain core concepts, notably the detailed a priori description of decision processes, can be achieved in practice. The analysis also indicates that there is considerably more common ground in many contemporary debates about environmental assessment than the literature, which has tended towards polarisation suggests. The significance of this research is that it recognises and highlights the contribution of decision-oriented theory to refocusing attention on the substantive intent of this globally significant policy tool

  17. Group decisions in biodiversity conservation: implications from game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, David M; Sarkar, Sahotra

    2010-05-27

    Decision analysis and game theory have proved useful tools in various biodiversity conservation planning and modeling contexts. This paper shows how game theory may be used to inform group decisions in biodiversity conservation scenarios by modeling conflicts between stakeholders to identify Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria. These are cases in which each agent pursuing individual self-interest leads to a worse outcome for all, relative to other feasible outcomes. Three case studies from biodiversity conservation contexts showing this feature are modeled to demonstrate how game-theoretical representation can inform group decision-making. The mathematical theory of games is used to model three biodiversity conservation scenarios with Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria: (i) a two-agent case involving wild dogs in South Africa; (ii) a three-agent raptor and grouse conservation scenario from the United Kingdom; and (iii) an n-agent fish and coral conservation scenario from the Philippines. In each case there is reason to believe that traditional mechanism-design solutions that appeal to material incentives may be inadequate, and the game-theoretical analysis recommends a resumption of further deliberation between agents and the initiation of trust--and confidence--building measures. Game theory can and should be used as a normative tool in biodiversity conservation contexts: identifying scenarios with Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria enables constructive action in order to achieve (closer to) optimal conservation outcomes, whether by policy solutions based on mechanism design or otherwise. However, there is mounting evidence that formal mechanism-design solutions may backfire in certain cases. Such scenarios demand a return to group deliberation and the creation of reciprocal relationships of trust.

  18. Group decisions in biodiversity conservation: implications from game theory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M Frank

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Decision analysis and game theory have proved useful tools in various biodiversity conservation planning and modeling contexts. This paper shows how game theory may be used to inform group decisions in biodiversity conservation scenarios by modeling conflicts between stakeholders to identify Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria. These are cases in which each agent pursuing individual self-interest leads to a worse outcome for all, relative to other feasible outcomes. Three case studies from biodiversity conservation contexts showing this feature are modeled to demonstrate how game-theoretical representation can inform group decision-making. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The mathematical theory of games is used to model three biodiversity conservation scenarios with Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria: (i a two-agent case involving wild dogs in South Africa; (ii a three-agent raptor and grouse conservation scenario from the United Kingdom; and (iii an n-agent fish and coral conservation scenario from the Philippines. In each case there is reason to believe that traditional mechanism-design solutions that appeal to material incentives may be inadequate, and the game-theoretical analysis recommends a resumption of further deliberation between agents and the initiation of trust--and confidence--building measures. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Game theory can and should be used as a normative tool in biodiversity conservation contexts: identifying scenarios with Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria enables constructive action in order to achieve (closer to optimal conservation outcomes, whether by policy solutions based on mechanism design or otherwise. However, there is mounting evidence that formal mechanism-design solutions may backfire in certain cases. Such scenarios demand a return to group deliberation and the creation of reciprocal relationships of trust.

  19. An Overview of Judgment and Decision Making Research Through the Lens of Fuzzy Trace Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setton, Roni; Wilhelms, Evan; Weldon, Becky; Chick, Christina; Reyna, Valerie

    2014-12-01

    We present the basic tenets of fuzzy trace theory, a comprehensive theory of memory, judgment, and decision making that is grounded in research on how information is stored as knowledge, mentally represented, retrieved from storage, and processed. In doing so, we highlight how it is distinguished from traditional models of decision making in that gist reasoning plays a central role. The theory also distinguishes advanced intuition from primitive impulsivity. It predicts that different sorts of errors occur with respect to each component of judgment and decision making: background knowledge, representation, retrieval, and processing. Classic errors in the judgment and decision making literature, such as risky-choice framing and the conjunction fallacy, are accounted for by fuzzy trace theory and new results generated by the theory contradict traditional approaches. We also describe how developmental changes in brain and behavior offer crucial insight into adult cognitive processing. Research investigating brain and behavior in developing and special populations supports fuzzy trace theory's predictions about reliance on gist processing.

  20. Using Rational Action Theory and Bourdieu's Habitus theory together to account for educational decision-making in England and Germany.

    OpenAIRE

    Glaesser, J.; Cooper, B.

    2014-01-01

    Both Rational Action Theory (RAT) and Bourdieu’s habitus theory are employed to explain educational decision-making. RAT assumes that decision-making involves cost-benefit analysis, while habitus theory sees educational pathways as shaped by dispositions reflecting familial class of origin. These theories are often seen as conflicting, but we argue that they can fruitfully be used together. Proponents of these theories often employ different methods. RAT advocates usually employ survey d...

  1. The opportunity-threat theory of decision-making under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Mohan Pandey

    2018-01-01

    A new theory of decision-making under risk, the Opportunity-Threat Theory is proposed. Analysis of risk into opportunity and threat components allows description of behavior as a combination of opportunity seeking and threat aversion. Expected utility is a special case of this model. The final evaluation is an integration of the impacts of opportunity and threat with this expectation. The model can account for basic results as well as several ``new paradoxes'' that refuted c...

  2. Using the Reliability Theory for Assessing the Decision Confidence Probability for Comparative Life Cycle Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wei; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Faure, Thierry; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Roux, Philippe; Mathias, Jean-Denis

    2016-03-01

    Comparative decision making process is widely used to identify which option (system, product, service, etc.) has smaller environmental footprints and for providing recommendations that help stakeholders take future decisions. However, the uncertainty problem complicates the comparison and the decision making. Probability-based decision support in LCA is a way to help stakeholders in their decision-making process. It calculates the decision confidence probability which expresses the probability of a option to have a smaller environmental impact than the one of another option. Here we apply the reliability theory to approximate the decision confidence probability. We compare the traditional Monte Carlo method with a reliability method called FORM method. The Monte Carlo method needs high computational time to calculate the decision confidence probability. The FORM method enables us to approximate the decision confidence probability with fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method by approximating the response surface. Moreover, the FORM method calculates the associated importance factors that correspond to a sensitivity analysis in relation to the probability. The importance factors allow stakeholders to determine which factors influence their decision. Our results clearly show that the reliability method provides additional useful information to stakeholders as well as it reduces the computational time.

  3. New results in topological field theory and Abelian gauge theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, G.

    1995-10-01

    These are the lecture notes of a set of lectures delivered at the 1995 Trieste summer school in June. I review some recent work on duality in four dimensional Maxwell theory on arbitrary four manifolds, as well as a new set of topological invariants known as the Seiberg-Witten invariants. Much of the necessary background material is given, including a crash course in topological field theory, cohomology of manifolds, topological gauge theory and the rudiments of four manifold theory. My main hope is to wet the readers appetite, so that he or she will wish to read the original works and perhaps to enter this field. (author). 41 refs, 5 figs

  4. New results in topological field theory and Abelian gauge theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, G

    1995-10-01

    These are the lecture notes of a set of lectures delivered at the 1995 Trieste summer school in June. I review some recent work on duality in four dimensional Maxwell theory on arbitrary four manifolds, as well as a new set of topological invariants known as the Seiberg-Witten invariants. Much of the necessary background material is given, including a crash course in topological field theory, cohomology of manifolds, topological gauge theory and the rudiments of four manifold theory. My main hope is to wet the readers appetite, so that he or she will wish to read the original works and perhaps to enter this field. (author). 41 refs, 5 figs.

  5. A Mental Value Perspective in Risk Decision Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Trifu

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available This work is based on Prospect theory, which was developed by D. Kahneman and A. Tversky in 1979. This is one the most quoted and best-documented point of view in economic psychology. First of all, it replaces, once again, the notion of utility with value. But value is defined in terms of gains and losses and this, according with an irrational human tendency to be less willing to gamble with profits than with losses. So, we discover the great importance of these assumptions in the field of risk decision-making, especially for firms’ activity in the marketplace.

  6. A Mental Value Perspective in Risk Decision Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Davidescu

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available This work is based on Prospect theory, which was developed by D. Kahneman and A. Tversky in 1979. This is one the most quoted and best-documented point of view in economic psychology. First of all, it replaces, once again, the notion of utility with value. But value is defined in terms of gains and losses and this, according with an irrational human tendency to be less willing to gamble with profits than with losses. So, we discover the great importance of these assumptions in the field of risk decision-making, especially for firms’ activity in the marketplace.

  7. Decision making in a multidisciplinary cancer team: does team discussion result in better quality decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kee, Frank; Owen, Tracy; Leathem, Ruth

    2004-01-01

    To establish whether treatment recommendations made by clinicians concur with the best outcomes predicted from their prognostic estimates and whether team discussion improves the quality or outcome of their decision making, the authors studied real-time decision making by a lung cancer team. Clinicians completed pre- and postdiscussion questionnaires for 50 newly diagnosed patients. For each patient/doctor pairing, a decision model determined the expected patient outcomes from the clinician's prognostic estimates. The difference between the expected utility of the recommended treatment and the maximum utility derived from the clinician's predictions of the outcomes (the net utility loss) following all potential treatment modalities was calculated as an indicator of quality of the decision. The proportion of treatment decisions changed by the multidisciplinary team discussion was also calculated. Insofar as the change in net utility loss brought about by multidisciplinary team discussion was not significantly different from zero, team discussion did not improve the quality of decision making overall. However, given the modest power of the study, these findings must be interpreted with caution. In only 23 of 87 instances (26%) in which an individual specialist's initial treatment preference differed from the final group judgment did the specialist finally concur with the group treatment choice after discussion. This study does not support the theory that team discussion improves decision making by closing a knowledge gap.

  8. Nonperturbative Results for Yang-Mills Theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sannino, Francesco; Schechter, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    Some non perturbative aspects of the pure SU(3) Yang-Mills theory are investigated assuming a specific form of the beta function, based on a recent modification by Ryttov and Sannino of the known one for supersymmetric gauge theories. The characteristic feature is a pole at a particular value....... Assuming the usual QCD value one finds it to be 1.67 GeV, which is in surprisingly good agreement with a quenched lattice calculation. A similar calculation is made for the supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory where the corresponding beta function is considered to be exact....

  9. Robust Bayesian decision theory applied to optimal dosage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Christophe; Daurès, Jean-Pierre

    2004-04-15

    We give a model for constructing an utility function u(theta,d) in a dose prescription problem. theta and d denote respectively the patient state of health and the dose. The construction of u is based on the conditional probabilities of several variables. These probabilities are described by logistic models. Obviously, u is only an approximation of the true utility function and that is why we investigate the sensitivity of the final decision with respect to the utility function. We construct a class of utility functions from u and approximate the set of all Bayes actions associated to that class. Then, we measure the sensitivity as the greatest difference between the expected utilities of two Bayes actions. Finally, we apply these results to weighing up a chemotherapy treatment of lung cancer. This application emphasizes the importance of measuring robustness through the utility of decisions rather than the decisions themselves. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches in osteopathy - a qualitative grounded theory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Oliver P; Petty, Nicola J; Moore, Ann P

    2014-02-01

    There is limited understanding of how osteopaths make decisions in relation to clinical practice. The aim of this research was to construct an explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of experienced osteopaths in the UK. Twelve UK registered osteopaths participated in this constructivist grounded theory qualitative study. Purposive and theoretical sampling was used to select participants. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews which were audio-recorded and transcribed. As the study approached theoretical sufficiency, participants were observed and video-recorded during a patient appointment, which was followed by a video-prompted interview. Constant comparative analysis was used to analyse and code data. Data analysis resulted in the construction of three qualitatively different therapeutic approaches which characterised participants and their clinical practice, termed; Treater, Communicator and Educator. Participants' therapeutic approach influenced their approach to clinical decision-making, the level of patient involvement, their interaction with patients, and therapeutic goals. Participants' overall conception of practice lay on a continuum ranging from technical rationality to professional artistry, and contributed to their therapeutic approach. A range of factors were identified which influenced participants' conception of practice. The findings indicate that there is variation in osteopaths' therapeutic approaches to practice and clinical decision-making, which are influenced by their overall conception of practice. This study provides the first explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of osteopaths. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Development of a program theory for shared decision-making: a realist review protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groot, Gary; Waldron, Tamara; Carr, Tracey; McMullen, Linda; Bandura, Lori-Ann; Neufeld, Shelley-May; Duncan, Vicky

    2017-06-17

    The practicality of applying evidence to healthcare systems with the aim of implementing change is an ongoing challenge for practitioners, policy makers, and academics. Shared decision- making (SDM), a method of medical decision-making that allows a balanced relationship between patients, physicians, and other key players in the medical decision process, is purported to improve patient and system outcomes. Despite the oft-mentioned benefits, there are gaps in the current literature between theory and implementation that would benefit from a realist approach given the value of this methodology to analyze complex interventions. In this protocol, we outline a study that will explore: "In which situations, how, why, and for whom does SDM between patients and health care providers contribute to improved decision making?" A seven step iterative process will be described including preliminary theory development, establishment of a search strategy, selection and appraisal of literature, data extraction, analysis and synthesis of extracted results from literature, and formation of a revised program theory with the input of patients, physicians, nurse navigators, and policy makers from a stakeholder session. The goal of the realist review will be to identify and refine a program theory for SDM through the identification of mechanisms which shape the characteristics of when, how, and why SDM will, and will not, work. PROSPERO CRD42017062609.

  12. Statistical Learning Theory: Models, Concepts, and Results

    OpenAIRE

    von Luxburg, Ulrike; Schoelkopf, Bernhard

    2008-01-01

    Statistical learning theory provides the theoretical basis for many of today's machine learning algorithms. In this article we attempt to give a gentle, non-technical overview over the key ideas and insights of statistical learning theory. We target at a broad audience, not necessarily machine learning researchers. This paper can serve as a starting point for people who want to get an overview on the field before diving into technical details.

  13. Making Decisions about an Educational Game, Simulation or Workshop: A 'Game Theory' Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia

    1988-01-01

    Uses game theory to help practitioners make decisions about educational games, simulations, or workshops whose outcomes depend to some extent on chance. Highlights include principles for making decisions involving risk; elementary laws of probability; utility theory; and principles for making decisions involving uncertainty. (eight references)…

  14. [Shared decision-making and communication theory: grounding the tango].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasper, Jürgen; Légaré, France; Scheibler, Fülöp; Geiger, Friedemann

    2010-01-01

    Shared decision-making (SDM) has the potential to overcome outdated social role models in the health care system. The concept, however, adheres to archaic epistemological assumptions as can be inferred from the rudimentary stage of the measurement methods used and from the information monopoly that the physician still holds in this concept. Advantages of an up-to-date model of knowledge for understanding and operationalising SDM are outlined. To this purpose, essential definitions of the concept are reflected in terms of epistemology. Accordingly, information emerges through a process of social construction. Likewise, interpersonal relations do not represent a static condition; rather, they develop anew with each interaction. Therefore, constructs suitable to focus on dyadic interaction processes can be used as indicators of sharing in SDM. Theories and methods of the interpersonal paradigm are advocated. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  15. The design of patient decision support interventions: addressing the theory-practice gap

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Stiel, M.; Durand, M.A.; Boivin, J.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although an increasing number of decision support interventions for patients (including decision aids) are produced, few make explicit use of theory. We argue the importance of using theory to guide design. The aim of this work was to address this theory-practice gap and to examine how a

  16. Some properties of focus points in one-shot decision theory

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Peijun

    2011-01-01

    One-shot (one-time) decision problems concern the situations where a decision is experienced only once. Such one-shot decision problems are commonly encountered in business, economics and social systems. One-shot decision theory has been initially proposed by Guo [4]. The one-shot decision procedure comprises two steps. In the first step, a decision maker identifies which state of nature should be taken into account for each alternative amongst all available states of nature. These identified...

  17. Agency Theory and Franchising: Some Empirical Results

    OpenAIRE

    Francine Lafontaine

    1992-01-01

    This article provides an empirical assessment of various agency-theoretic explanations for franchising, including risk sharing, one-sided moral hazard, and two-sided moral hazard. The empirical models use proxies for factors such as risk, moral hazard, and franchisors' need for capital to explain both franchisors' decisions about the terms of their contracts (royalty rates and up-front franchise fees) and the extent to which they use franchising. In this article, I exploit several new sources...

  18. The design of patient decision support interventions: addressing the theory-practice gap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwyn, Glyn; Stiel, Mareike; Durand, Marie-Anne; Boivin, Jacky

    2011-08-01

    Although an increasing number of decision support interventions for patients (including decision aids) are produced, few make explicit use of theory. We argue the importance of using theory to guide design. The aim of this work was to address this theory-practice gap and to examine how a range of selected decision-making theories could inform the design and evaluation of decision support interventions. We reviewed the decision-making literature and selected relevant theories. We assessed their key principles, theoretical pathways and predictions in order to determine how they could inform the design of two core components of decision support interventions, namely, information and deliberation components and to specify theory-based outcome measures. Eight theories were selected: (1) the expected utility theory; (2) the conflict model of decision making; (3) prospect theory; (4) fuzzy-trace theory; (5) the differentiation and consolidation theory; (6) the ecological rationality theory; (7) the rational-emotional model of decision avoidance; and finally, (8) the Attend, React, Explain, Adapt model of affective forecasting. Some theories have strong relevance to the information design (e.g. prospect theory); some are more relevant to deliberation processes (conflict theory, differentiation theory and ecological validity). None of the theories in isolation was sufficient to inform the design of all the necessary components of decision support interventions. It was also clear that most work in theory-building has focused on explaining or describing how humans think rather than on how tools could be designed to help humans make good decisions. It is not surprising therefore that a large theory-practice gap exists as we consider decision support for patients. There was no relevant theory that integrated all the necessary contributions to the task of making good decisions in collaborative interactions. Initiatives such as the International Patient Decision Aids Standards

  19. When people don't realize their career decisions : towards a theory of career inaction

    OpenAIRE

    Verbruggen, Marijke; Vos, de, Ans

    2016-01-01

    Abstract: Career decisions are at the core of the career literature. Most theories on career decisions - and accordingly, most empirical studies - have focused on the decision-making process and on factors influencing it. Some theoretical work has been done on the phase afterwards, i.e. after the career decision is made. However, these theories generally focus on the career transition process, implicitly assuming that people always go through with the objective changes they desired. Career in...

  20. Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

  1. Decision-making under risk. An overview of some alternative utility theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pauwels, N.; Van Woensel, T.

    1998-09-01

    Decision-makers often have to take decisions with unknown consequences that depend on various events which on their turn can take place a certain chance. Under the given circumstances, the traditional decision criterion is based on the maximisation of the expected benefits. Experimental studies have however revealed important inconsistencies between decisions taken on the basis of this decision criterion on the one hand and the observed decisions on the other hand. The report gives an overview of a number of alternative theories extending or adapting the traditional theory in view of avoiding the observed inconsistencies

  2. Decision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cinicioglu Esma Nur

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Dempster−Shafer belief function theory can address a wider class of uncertainty than the standard probability theory does, and this fact appeals the researchers in operations research society for potential application areas. However, the lack of a decision theory of belief functions gives rise to the need to use the probability transformation methods for decision making. For representation of statistical evidence, the class of consonant belief functions is used which is not closed under Dempster’s rule of combination but is closed under Walley’s rule of combination. In this research, it is shown that the outcomes obtained using both Dempster’s and Walley’s rules do result in different probability distributions when pignistic transformation is used. However, when plausibility transformation is used, they do result in the same probability distribution. This result shows that the choice of the combination rule and probability transformation method may have a significant effect on decision making since it may change the choice of the decision alternative selected. This result is illustrated via an example of missile type identification.

  3. Small- and large-stakes risk aversion: implications of concavity calabration for decision theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cox, J.C.; Sadiraj, V.

    2006-01-01

    A growing literature reports the conclusions that: (a) expected utility theory does not provide a plausible theory of risk aversion for both small-stakes and large-stakes gambles; and (b) this decision theory should be replaced with an alternative theory characterized by loss aversion. This paper

  4. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  5. Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.; Wu, Eric

    2012-01-01

    The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure. PMID:22711977

  6. Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B; Wu, Eric

    2012-07-01

    The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.

  7. Theory, Software and Testing Examples for Decision Support Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Lewandowski, A.; Wierzbicki, A.P.

    1987-01-01

    Research in methodology of Decision Support Systems is one of the activities within the System and Decision Sciences Program which was initiated seven years ago and is still in the center of interests of SDS. During these years several methodological approaches and software tools have been developed; among others the DIDAS (Dynamic Interactive Decision Analysis and Support) and SCDAS (Selection Committed Decision Analysis and Support). Both methodologies gained a certain level of popularity a...

  8. Fundamentals of the fuzzy logic-based generalized theory of decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Aliev, Rafik Aziz

    2013-01-01

    Every day decision making and decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. Main drawback of the existing decision theories is namely incapability to deal with imperfect information and modeling vague preferences. Actually, a paradigm of non-numerical probabilities in decision making has a long history and arose also in Keynes’s analysis of uncertainty. There is a need for further generalization – a move to decision theories with perception-based imperfect information described in NL. The languages of new decision models for human-centric systems should be not languages based on binary logic but human-centric computational schemes able to operate on NL-described information. Development of new theories is now possible due to an increased computational power of information processing systems which allows for computations with imperfect information, particularly, imprecise and partially true information, which are much more complex than comput...

  9. How Decision Support Systems Can Benefit from a Theory of Change Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Will; Cruz, Jennyffer; Warburton, Bruce

    2017-06-01

    Decision support systems are now mostly computer and internet-based information systems designed to support land managers with complex decision-making. However, there is concern that many environmental and agricultural decision support systems remain underutilized and ineffective. Recent efforts to improve decision support systems use have focused on enhancing stakeholder participation in their development, but a mismatch between stakeholders' expectations and the reality of decision support systems outputs continues to limit uptake. Additional challenges remain in problem-framing and evaluation. We propose using an outcomes-based approach called theory of change in conjunction with decision support systems development to support both wider problem-framing and outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation. The theory of change helps framing by placing the decision support systems within a wider context. It highlights how decision support systems use can "contribute" to long-term outcomes, and helps align decision support systems outputs with these larger goals. We illustrate the benefits of linking decision support systems development and application with a theory of change approach using an example of pest rabbit management in Australia. We develop a theory of change that outlines the activities required to achieve the outcomes desired from an effective rabbit management program, and two decision support systems that contribute to specific aspects of decision making in this wider problem context. Using a theory of change in this way should increase acceptance of the role of decision support systems by end-users, clarify their limitations and, importantly, increase effectiveness of rabbit management. The use of a theory of change should benefit those seeking to improve decision support systems design, use and, evaluation.

  10. How Decision Support Systems Can Benefit from a Theory of Change Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Will; Cruz, Jennyffer; Warburton, Bruce

    2017-06-01

    Decision support systems are now mostly computer and internet-based information systems designed to support land managers with complex decision-making. However, there is concern that many environmental and agricultural decision support systems remain underutilized and ineffective. Recent efforts to improve decision support systems use have focused on enhancing stakeholder participation in their development, but a mismatch between stakeholders' expectations and the reality of decision support systems outputs continues to limit uptake. Additional challenges remain in problem-framing and evaluation. We propose using an outcomes-based approach called theory of change in conjunction with decision support systems development to support both wider problem-framing and outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation. The theory of change helps framing by placing the decision support systems within a wider context. It highlights how decision support systems use can "contribute" to long-term outcomes, and helps align decision support systems outputs with these larger goals. We illustrate the benefits of linking decision support systems development and application with a theory of change approach using an example of pest rabbit management in Australia. We develop a theory of change that outlines the activities required to achieve the outcomes desired from an effective rabbit management program, and two decision support systems that contribute to specific aspects of decision making in this wider problem context. Using a theory of change in this way should increase acceptance of the role of decision support systems by end-users, clarify their limitations and, importantly, increase effectiveness of rabbit management. The use of a theory of change should benefit those seeking to improve decision support systems design, use and, evaluation.

  11. The Application of Recognition-Primed Decision Theory to Decisions Made in an Outdoor Education Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyes, Mike; Potter, Tom

    2015-01-01

    This research examined the decisions that highly experienced outdoor leaders made on backpacking expeditions conducted by a tertiary institution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. The purpose of the research was to document decision problems and explore them as Recognition-Primed Decisions (RPD) within naturalistic decision making (NDM)…

  12. Grey situation group decision-making method based on prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing

    2014-01-01

    This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example.

  13. The Relevance of Theories of the Policy Process to Educational Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, R. J.

    1985-01-01

    Two case studies of educational decision making are used to test the utility of some current theories of the policy-formation process; a framework for the application of these theories is proposed; and the merits of applying existing theories before seeking new paradigms are stressed. (MSE)

  14. Do violations of the axioms of expected utility theory threaten decision analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nease, R F

    1996-01-01

    Research demonstrates that people violate the independence principle of expected utility theory, raising the question of whether expected utility theory is normative for medical decision making. The author provides three arguments that violations of the independence principle are less problematic than they might first appear. First, the independence principle follows from other more fundamental axioms whose appeal may be more readily apparent than that of the independence principle. Second, the axioms need not be descriptive to be normative, and they need not be attractive to all decision makers for expected utility theory to be useful for some. Finally, by providing a metaphor of decision analysis as a conversation between the actual decision maker and a model decision maker, the author argues that expected utility theory need not be purely normative for decision analysis to be useful. In short, violations of the independence principle do not necessarily represent direct violations of the axioms of expected utility theory; behavioral violations of the axioms of expected utility theory do not necessarily imply that decision analysis is not normative; and full normativeness is not necessary for decision analysis to generate valuable insights.

  15. Fuzzy-valued linguistic soft set theory and multi-attribute decision-making application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aiwu, Zhao; Hongjun, Guan

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we propose the theory of fuzzy linguistic soft set (FLSS) to represent the uncertainty and multi-angle of view when decision makers evaluate an object during decision-making. FLSS integrates fuzzy set theory, linguistic variable and soft set theory. It allows decision makers to utilize linguistic variables to evaluate an object and utilize fuzzy values to describe the corresponding grade of their support of their decisions. Meanwhile, because of the flexibility of soft set, decision makers can use more than one pair of fuzzy-linguistic evaluations to express their opinions from multiple perspectives directly, if necessary. Therefore, it is more flexible and practical than traditional fuzzy set or 2-dimension uncertainty linguistic variable. We also develop a generalized weighted aggregation operator for FLSSs to solve corresponding decision-making issues. Finally, we give a numerical example to verify the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. The boundaries of instance-based learning theory for explaining decisions from experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Cleotilde

    2013-01-01

    Most demonstrations of how people make decisions in risky situations rely on decisions from description, where outcomes and their probabilities are explicitly stated. But recently, more attention has been given to decisions from experience where people discover these outcomes and probabilities through exploration. More importantly, risky behavior depends on how decisions are made (from description or experience), and although prospect theory explains decisions from description, a comprehensive model of decisions from experience is yet to be found. Instance-based learning theory (IBLT) explains how decisions are made from experience through interactions with dynamic environments (Gonzalez et al., 2003). The theory has shown robust explanations of behavior across multiple tasks and contexts, but it is becoming unclear what the theory is able to explain and what it does not. The goal of this chapter is to start addressing this problem. I will introduce IBLT and a recent cognitive model based on this theory: the IBL model of repeated binary choice; then I will discuss the phenomena that the IBL model explains and those that the model does not. The argument is for the theory's robustness but also for clarity in terms of concrete effects that the theory can or cannot account for. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Decision making using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and fuzzy set theory in waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, J.Y.; Lee, K.J.; Kim, C.D.

    1995-01-01

    The major problem is how to consider the differences in opinions, when many experts are involved in decision making process. This paper provides a simple general methodology to treat the differences in various opinions. The authors determined the grade of membership through the process of magnitude estimation derived from pairwise comparisons and AHP developed by Saaty. They used fuzzy set theory to consider the differences in opinions and obtain the priorities for each alternative. An example, which can be applied to radioactive waste management, also was presented. The result shows a good agreement with the results of averaging methods

  18. A Decision Theory Approach to College Resource Allocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Charles W.

    Current budgeting techniques are reviewed in relation to their application to higher education, including (1) incremental budgeting, where decisions are based primarily upon former levels of expenditures, (2) zero-based budgeting, involving the establishment and ranking of "decision packages", (3) Planning and Programming Budgeting…

  19. Neutrosophic Parametrized Soft Set Theory and Its Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Said Broumi; Irfan Deli; Florentin Smarandache

    2014-01-01

    In this work, we present definition of neutrosophic parameterized (NP) soft set and its operations. Then we define NP-aggregation operator to form NP-soft decision making method which allows constructing more efficient decision processes. We also dive an example which shows that they can be successfully applied to problem that contain indeterminacy.

  20. Advances in fuzzy decision making theory and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Skalna, Iwona; Gaweł, Bartłomiej; Basiura, Beata; Duda, Jerzy; Opiła, Janusz; Pełech-Pilichowski, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    This book shows how common operation management methods and algorithms can be extended to deal with vague or imprecise information in decision-making problems. It describes how to combine decision trees, clustering, multi-attribute decision-making algorithms and Monte Carlo Simulation with the mathematical description of imprecise or vague information, and how to visualize such information. Moreover, it discusses a broad spectrum of real-life management problems including forecasting the apparent consumption of steel products, planning and scheduling of production processes, project portfolio selection and economic-risk estimation. It is a concise, yet comprehensive, reference source for researchers in decision-making and decision-makers in business organizations alike.

  1. Momentary fitting in a fluid environment: A grounded theory of triage nurse decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reay, Gudrun; Rankin, James A; Then, Karen L

    2016-05-01

    Triage nurses control access to the Emergency Department (ED) and make decisions about patient acuity, patient priority, and placement of the patient in the ED. Understanding the processes and strategies that triage nurses use to make decisions is therefore vital for patient safety and the operation of the ED. The aim of the current study was to generate a substantive grounded theory (GT) of decision making by emergency triage Registered Nurses (RNs). Data collection consisted of seven observations of the triage environment at three tertiary care hospitals where RNs conducted triage and twelve interviews with triage RNs. The data were analyzed by constant comparison in accordance with the classical GT method. In the resultant theory, Momentary Fitting in a Fluid Environment, triage is conceptualized as a process consisting of four categories, determining acuity, anticipating needs, managing space, and creating space. The findings indicate that triage RNs continually strive to achieve fit, while simultaneously considering the individual patient and the ED as a whole entity. Triage RNs require appropriately designed triage environments and computer technology that enable them to secure real time knowledge of the ED to maintain situation awareness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Nuclear weapons decision-making; an application of organization theory to the mini-nuke case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kangas, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This dissertation addresses the problem of constructing and developing normative theory responsive to the need for improving the quality of decision-making in the nuclear weapons policy-making. Against the background of a critical evaluation of various paradigms in the literature (systems analysis and opposed-systems designed, the bureaucratic politics model, and the cybernetic theory of decision) an attempt is made to design an alternative analytic framework based on the writings of numerous organization theorists such as Herbert Simon and Kenneth Arrow. The framework is applied to the case of mini-nukes, i.e., proposals in the mid-1970s to develop and deploy tens of thousands of very low-yield (sub-kiloton), miniaturized fission weapons in NATO. Heuristic case study identifies the type of study undertaken in the dissertation in contrast to the more familiar paradigmatic studies identified, for example, with the Harvard Weapons Project. Application of the analytic framework developed in the dissertation of the mini-nuke case resulted in an empirical understanding of why decision making concerning tactical nuclear weapons has been such a complex task and why force modernization issues in particular have been so controversial and lacking in policy resolution

  3. Vers une théorie décisionnelle de la traduction Toward a Decision-driven Translation Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Durieux

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Until now, research on translation was within the framework of a formal theory paradigm. An extension of structuralism, linguistic theories of translation claim complete objectivity. In opposition to that hyperpositivism, interpretive theories open widely to constructivism. The translator acts as an intermediary in the communication chain and, to that end, activates an inference engine in order to build the meaning of the text to be translated. However, if the translating process may be defined as a sequence of decisions, decision-making is not the result of a purely rational reasoning relying on strict inference rules but the outcome of a mechanism ruled by bounded rationality. The decision-making process is governed by selective attention and controlled by emotions, hence situating the translating process between reason and emotion.

  4. Applying voting theory in natural resource management: a case of multiple-criteria group decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laukkanen, Sanna; Kangas, Annika; Kangas, Jyrki

    2002-02-01

    Voting theory has a lot in common with utility theory, and especially with group decision-making. An expected-utility-maximising strategy exists in voting situations, as well as in decision-making situations. Therefore, it is natural to utilise the achievements of voting theory also in group decision-making. Most voting systems are based on a single criterion or holistic preference information on decision alternatives. However, a voting scheme called multicriteria approval is specially developed for decision-making situations with multiple criteria. This study considers the voting theory from the group decision support point of view and compares it with some other methods applied to similar purposes in natural resource management. A case study is presented, where the approval voting approach is introduced to natural resources planning and tested in a forestry group decision-making process. Applying multicriteria approval method was found to be a potential approach for handling some challenges typical for forestry group decision support. These challenges include (i) utilising ordinal information in the evaluation of decision alternatives, (ii) being readily understandable for and treating equally all the stakeholders in possession of different levels of knowledge on the subject considered, (iii) fast and cheap acquisition of preference information from several stakeholders, and (iv) dealing with multiple criteria.

  5. An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory for Decision under Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Chateauneuf, A.

    1999-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory was introduced by Tversky and Kahneman so as to combine the empirical realism of their original prospect theory with the theoretical advantages of Quiggin's rank-dependent utility. Preference axiomatizations were provided in several papers. All those axiomatizations,

  6. Facilitating Group Decision-Making: Facilitator's Subjective Theories on Group Coordination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michaela Kolbe

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available A key feature of group facilitation is motivating and coordinating people to perform their joint work. This paper focuses on group coordination which is a prerequisite to group effectiveness, especially in complex tasks. Decision-making in groups is a complex task that consequently needs to be coordinated by explicit rather than implicit coordination mechanisms. Based on the embedded definition that explicit coordination does not just happen but is purposely executed by individuals, we argue that individual coordination intentions and mechanisms should be taken into account. Thus far, the subjective perspective of coordination has been neglected in coordination theory, which is understandable given the difficulties in defining and measuring subjective aspects of group facilitation. We therefore conducted focused interviews with eight experts who either worked as senior managers or as experienced group facilitators and analysed their approaches to group coordination using methods of content analysis. Results show that these experts possess sophisticated mental representations of their coordination behaviour. These subjective coordination theories can be organised in terms of coordination schemes in which coordination-releasing situations are facilitated by special coordination mechanisms that, in turn, lead to the perception of specific consequences. We discuss the importance of these subjective coordination theories for effectively facilitating group decision-making and minimising process losses. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0901287

  7. A Grounded Theory Study of Aircraft Maintenance Technician Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norcross, Robert

    Aircraft maintenance technician decision-making and actions have resulted in aircraft system errors causing aircraft incidents and accidents. Aircraft accident investigators and researchers examined the factors that influence aircraft maintenance technician errors and categorized the types of errors in an attempt to prevent similar occurrences. New aircraft technology introduced to improve aviation safety and efficiency incur failures that have no information contained in the aircraft maintenance manuals. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, aircraft maintenance technicians must use only approved aircraft maintenance documents to repair, modify, and service aircraft. This qualitative research used a grounded theory approach to explore the decision-making processes and actions taken by aircraft maintenance technicians when confronted with an aircraft problem not contained in the aircraft maintenance manuals. The target population for the research was Federal Aviation Administration licensed aircraft and power plant mechanics from across the United States. Nonprobability purposeful sampling was used to obtain aircraft maintenance technicians with the experience sought in the study problem. The sample population recruitment yielded 19 participants for eight focus group sessions to obtain opinions, perceptions, and experiences related to the study problem. All data collected was entered into the Atlas ti qualitative analysis software. The emergence of Aircraft Maintenance Technician decision-making themes regarding Aircraft Maintenance Manual content, Aircraft Maintenance Technician experience, and legal implications of not following Aircraft Maintenance Manuals surfaced. Conclusions from this study suggest Aircraft Maintenance Technician decision-making were influenced by experience, gaps in the Aircraft Maintenance Manuals, reliance on others, realizing the impact of decisions concerning aircraft airworthiness, management pressures, and legal concerns

  8. Item response theory analysis of the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Screening Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teresi, Jeanne A; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Lichtenberg, Peter A

    2017-01-01

    The focus of these analyses was to examine the psychometric properties of the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Screening Scale (LFDSS). The purpose of the screen was to evaluate the decisional abilities and vulnerability to exploitation of older adults. Adults aged 60 and over were interviewed by social, legal, financial, or health services professionals who underwent in-person training on the administration and scoring of the scale. Professionals provided a rating of the decision-making abilities of the older adult. The analytic sample included 213 individuals with an average age of 76.9 (SD = 10.1). The majority (57%) were female. Data were analyzed using item response theory (IRT) methodology. The results supported the unidimensionality of the item set. Several IRT models were tested. Ten ordinal and binary items evidenced a slightly higher reliability estimate (0.85) than other versions and better coverage in terms of the range of reliable measurement across the continuum of financial incapacity.

  9. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamsen, E.B. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: eirik.abrahamsen@uis.no; Aven, T. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)

    2008-12-15

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory.

  10. Rational decision perspectives on alcohol consumption by youth. Revising the theory of planned behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuther, Tara L

    2002-01-01

    Cognitive and developmental approaches have made great strides in describing and predicting alcohol consumption by youth. The present review examines several theories of decision making with regard to alcohol consumption, including subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior, and alcohol-related outcome expectancy theory. In addition, the developmental literature on the contribution of parents and peers to adolescent alcohol consumption is reviewed. A model is proposed, which integrates the theory of planned behavior and alcohol-related outcome expectancy theory with modifications based on findings from the developmental literature. Implications for further research are discussed.

  11. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamsen, E.B.; Aven, T.

    2008-01-01

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory

  12. The neural substrate and functional integration of uncertainty in decision making: an information theory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goñi, Joaquín; Aznárez-Sanado, Maite; Arrondo, Gonzalo; Fernández-Seara, María; Loayza, Francis R; Heukamp, Franz H; Pastor, María A

    2011-03-09

    Decision making can be regarded as the outcome of cognitive processes leading to the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Borrowing a central measurement from information theory, Shannon entropy, we quantified the uncertainties produced by decisions of participants within an economic decision task under different configurations of reward probability and time. These descriptors were used to obtain blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal correlates of uncertainty and two clusters codifying the Shannon entropy of task configurations were identified: a large cluster including parts of the right middle cingulate cortex (MCC) and left and right pre-supplementary motor areas (pre-SMA) and a small cluster at the left anterior thalamus. Subsequent functional connectivity analyses using the psycho-physiological interactions model identified areas involved in the functional integration of uncertainty. Results indicate that clusters mostly located at frontal and temporal cortices experienced an increased connectivity with the right MCC and left and right pre-SMA as the uncertainty was higher. Furthermore, pre-SMA was also functionally connected to a rich set of areas, most of them associative areas located at occipital and parietal lobes. This study provides a map of the human brain segregation and integration (i.e., neural substrate and functional connectivity respectively) of the uncertainty associated to an economic decision making paradigm.

  13. Decision-making regarding organ donation in Korean adults: A grounded-theory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeun, Eun Ja; Kwon, Young Mi; Kim, Jung A

    2015-06-01

    The aim of this study was to identify the hidden patterns of behavior leading toward the decision to donate organs. Thirteen registrants at the Association for Organ Sharing in Korea were recruited. Data were collected using in-depth interview and the interview transcripts were analyzed using Glaserian grounded-theory methodology. The main problem of participants was "body attachment" and the core category (management process) was determined to be "pursuing life." The theme consisted of four phases, which were: "hesitating," "investigating," "releasing," and "re-discovering. " Therefore, to increase organ donations, it is important to find a strategy that will create positive attitudes about organ donation through education and public relations. These results explain and provide a deeper understanding of the main problem that Korean people have about organ donation and their management of decision-making processes. These findings can help care providers to facilitate the decision-making process and respond to public needs while taking into account the sociocultural context within which decisions are made. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  14. The neural substrate and functional integration of uncertainty in decision making: an information theory approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Goñi

    Full Text Available Decision making can be regarded as the outcome of cognitive processes leading to the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Borrowing a central measurement from information theory, Shannon entropy, we quantified the uncertainties produced by decisions of participants within an economic decision task under different configurations of reward probability and time. These descriptors were used to obtain blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD signal correlates of uncertainty and two clusters codifying the Shannon entropy of task configurations were identified: a large cluster including parts of the right middle cingulate cortex (MCC and left and right pre-supplementary motor areas (pre-SMA and a small cluster at the left anterior thalamus. Subsequent functional connectivity analyses using the psycho-physiological interactions model identified areas involved in the functional integration of uncertainty. Results indicate that clusters mostly located at frontal and temporal cortices experienced an increased connectivity with the right MCC and left and right pre-SMA as the uncertainty was higher. Furthermore, pre-SMA was also functionally connected to a rich set of areas, most of them associative areas located at occipital and parietal lobes. This study provides a map of the human brain segregation and integration (i.e., neural substrate and functional connectivity respectively of the uncertainty associated to an economic decision making paradigm.

  15. Decision making in the manufacturing environment using graph theory and fuzzy multiple attribute decision making methods

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Ravipudi Venkata

    2007-01-01

    Manufacturing is the backbone of any industrialized nation. Recent worldwide advances in manufacturing technologies have brought about a metamorphism in the industry. Fast-changing technologies on the product front have created a need for an equally fast response from manufacturing industries. To meet these challenges, manufacturing industries have to select appropriate manufacturing strategies, product designs, manufacturing processes, work piece and tool materials, and machinery and equipment. The selection decisions are complex as decision making is more challenging today. Decision makers i

  16. The Price Is Right, but Are the Bids? An Investigation of Rational Decision Theory.

    OpenAIRE

    Berk, Jonathan B; Hughson, Eric; Vandezande, Kirk

    1996-01-01

    The television game show The Price Is Right is used as a laboratory to conduct a preference-free test of rational decision theory in an environment with substantial economic incentives. It is found that contestants' strategies are transparently suboptimal. In response to this evidence, simple rules of thumb are developed that are shown to explain observed bidding patterns better than rational decision theory. Further, learning during the show reduces the frequency of strategic errors. This is...

  17. Multiattribute Grey Target Decision Method Based on Soft Set Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With respect to the Multiattribute decision-making problems in which the evaluation attribute sets are different and the evaluating values of alternatives are interval grey numbers, a multiattribute grey target decision-making method in which the attribute sets are different was proposed. The concept of grey soft set was defined, and its “AND” operation was assigned by combining the intersection operation of grey number. The expression approach of new grey soft set of attribute sets considering by all decision makers were gained by applying the “AND” operation of grey soft set, and the weights of synthesis attribute were proved. The alternatives were ranked according to the size of distance of bull’s eyes of each alternative under synthetic attribute sets. The green supplier selection was illustrated to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed model.

  18. Can the Theory of Motivation Explain Migration Decisions?

    OpenAIRE

    Natálie Reichlová

    2005-01-01

    According to Abraham Maslow's motivational theory, human action is motivated by five groups of human needs. The model introduced in this paper exploits Maslow's theory to explain migration flows between regions. In the model, movement from one place to another influences migrant's utility through three various ways. First, through change in wage caused by different wage levels in each location. Second, through changes in utility connected with individuals safety needs and finally, through dis...

  19. Applications of decision theory to computer-based adaptive instructional systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1988-01-01

    This paper considers applications of decision theory to the problem of instructional decision-making in computer-based adaptive instructional systems, using the Minnesota Adaptive Instructional System (MAIS) as an example. The first section indicates how the problem of selecting the appropriate

  20. Non-Bayesian decision theory beliefs and desires as reasons for action

    CERN Document Server

    Peterson, Martin

    2008-01-01

    This book aims to present an account of rational choice from a non-Bayesian point of view. It provides the first non-Bayesian account of normative decision theory and includes a formal account of the framing of decision problems.

  1. Decision Making in Manufacturing Environment Using Graph Theory and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods Volume 2

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, R Venkata

    2013-01-01

    Decision Making in Manufacturing Environment Using Graph Theory and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods presents the concepts and details of applications of MADM methods. A range of methods are covered including Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR), Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Preference Ranking METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la Realité (ELECTRE), COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS), Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), UTility Additive (UTA), and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). The existing MADM methods are improved upon and three novel multiple attribute decision making methods for solving the decision making problems of the manufacturing environment are proposed. The concept of integrated weights is introduced in the proposed subjective and objective integrated weights (SOIW) method and the weighted Euclidean distance ba...

  2. An EGR performance evaluation and decision-making approach based on grey theory and grey entropy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zu, Xianghuan; Yang, Chuanlei; Wang, Hechun; Wang, Yinyan

    2018-01-01

    Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is one of the main methods of reducing NOX emissions and has been widely used in marine diesel engines. This paper proposes an optimized comprehensive assessment method based on multi-objective grey situation decision theory, grey relation theory and grey entropy analysis to evaluate the performance and optimize rate determination of EGR, which currently lack clear theoretical guidance. First, multi-objective grey situation decision theory is used to establish the initial decision-making model according to the main EGR parameters. The optimal compromise between diesel engine combustion and emission performance is transformed into a decision-making target weight problem. After establishing the initial model and considering the characteristics of EGR under different conditions, an optimized target weight algorithm based on grey relation theory and grey entropy analysis is applied to generate the comprehensive evaluation and decision-making model. Finally, the proposed method is successfully applied to a TBD234V12 turbocharged diesel engine, and the results clearly illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method for providing theoretical support and a reference for further EGR optimization.

  3. A game theory perspective on environmental assessment: What games are played and what does this tell us about decision making rationality and legitimacy?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond, Alan [School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia (United Kingdom); Research Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University (South Africa); Pope, Jenny [Integral Sustainability (Australia); Research Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University (South Africa); Morrison-Saunders, Angus [Murdoch University (Australia); Research Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University (South Africa); Retief, Francois [Research Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University (South Africa)

    2016-02-15

    Game theory provides a useful theoretical framework to examine the decision process operating in the context of environmental assessment, and to examine the rationality and legitimacy of decision-making subject to Environmental Assessment (EA). The research uses a case study of the Environmental Impact Assessment and Sustainability Appraisal processes undertaken in England. To these are applied an analytical framework, based on the concept of decision windows to identify the decisions to be assessed. The conditions for legitimacy are defined, based on game theory, in relation to the timing of decision information, the behaviour type (competitive, reciprocal, equity) exhibited by the decision maker, and the level of public engagement; as, together, these control the type of rationality which can be brought to bear on the decision. Instrumental rationality is based on self-interest of individuals, whereas deliberative rationality seeks broader consensus and is more likely to underpin legitimate decisions. The results indicate that the Sustainability Appraisal process, conducted at plan level, is better than EIA, conducted at project level, but still fails to provide conditions that facilitate legitimacy. Game theory also suggests that Sustainability Appraisal is likely to deliver ‘least worst’ outcomes rather than best outcomes when the goals of the assessment process are considered; this may explain the propensity of such ‘least worst’ decisions in practise. On the basis of what can be learned from applying this game theory perspective, it is suggested that environmental assessment processes need to be redesigned and better integrated into decision making in order to guarantee the legitimacy of the decisions made. - Highlights: • Decision legitimacy is defined in terms of game theory. • Game theory is applied to EIA and SA decision windows. • Game theory suggests least worst outcomes prevail. • SA is more likely to be perceived legitimate than EIA.

  4. A game theory perspective on environmental assessment: What games are played and what does this tell us about decision making rationality and legitimacy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, Alan; Pope, Jenny; Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Retief, Francois

    2016-01-01

    Game theory provides a useful theoretical framework to examine the decision process operating in the context of environmental assessment, and to examine the rationality and legitimacy of decision-making subject to Environmental Assessment (EA). The research uses a case study of the Environmental Impact Assessment and Sustainability Appraisal processes undertaken in England. To these are applied an analytical framework, based on the concept of decision windows to identify the decisions to be assessed. The conditions for legitimacy are defined, based on game theory, in relation to the timing of decision information, the behaviour type (competitive, reciprocal, equity) exhibited by the decision maker, and the level of public engagement; as, together, these control the type of rationality which can be brought to bear on the decision. Instrumental rationality is based on self-interest of individuals, whereas deliberative rationality seeks broader consensus and is more likely to underpin legitimate decisions. The results indicate that the Sustainability Appraisal process, conducted at plan level, is better than EIA, conducted at project level, but still fails to provide conditions that facilitate legitimacy. Game theory also suggests that Sustainability Appraisal is likely to deliver ‘least worst’ outcomes rather than best outcomes when the goals of the assessment process are considered; this may explain the propensity of such ‘least worst’ decisions in practise. On the basis of what can be learned from applying this game theory perspective, it is suggested that environmental assessment processes need to be redesigned and better integrated into decision making in order to guarantee the legitimacy of the decisions made. - Highlights: • Decision legitimacy is defined in terms of game theory. • Game theory is applied to EIA and SA decision windows. • Game theory suggests least worst outcomes prevail. • SA is more likely to be perceived legitimate than EIA.

  5. Some Results on the Graph Theory for Complex Neutrosophic Sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shio Gai Quek

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzy graph theory plays an important role in the study of the symmetry and asymmetry properties of fuzzy graphs. With this in mind, in this paper, we introduce new neutrosophic graphs called complex neutrosophic graphs of type 1 (abbr. CNG1. We then present a matrix representation for it and study some properties of this new concept. The concept of CNG1 is an extension of the generalized fuzzy graphs of type 1 (GFG1 and generalized single-valued neutrosophic graphs of type 1 (GSVNG1. The utility of the CNG1 introduced here are applied to a multi-attribute decision making problem related to Internet server selection.

  6. A Theory of Collective Empathy in Corporate Philanthropy Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muller, A.R.; Pfarrer, M.D.; Little, L.M.

    Prevailing perspectives on corporate philanthropy are predominantly rational and limit decision making to the executive suite. Recently, however, recognition has grown that employees are also important drivers of corporate philanthropy efforts and that their motives may be more empathic in nature.

  7. Deontic Reasoning with Emotional Content: Evolutionary Psychology or Decision Theory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perham, Nick; Oaksford, Mike

    2005-01-01

    Three experiments investigated the contrasting predictions of the evolutionary and decision-theoretic approaches to deontic reasoning. Two experiments embedded a hazard management (HM) rule in a social contract scenario that should lead to competition between innate modules. A 3rd experiment used a pure HM task. Threatening material was also…

  8. Theories of Health Care Decision Making at the End of Life: A Meta-Ethnography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyounghae; Heinze, Katherine; Xu, Jiayun; Kurtz, Melissa; Park, Hyunjeong; Foradori, Megan; Nolan, Marie T

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this meta-ethnography is to appraise the types and uses of theories relative to end-of-life decision making and to develop a conceptual framework to describe end-of-life decision making among patients with advanced cancers, heart failure, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and their caregivers or providers. We used PubMed, Embase, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) databases to extract English-language articles published between January 2002 and April 2015. Forty-three articles were included. The most common theories included decision-making models ( n = 14) followed by family-centered ( n = 11) and behavioral change models ( n = 7). A conceptual framework was developed using themes including context of decision making, communication and negotiation of decision making, characteristics of decision makers, goals of decision making, options and alternatives, and outcomes. Future research should enhance and apply these theories to guide research to develop patient-centered decision-making programs that facilitate informed and shared decision making at the end of life among patients with advanced illness and their caregivers.

  9. Human-Agent Decision-making: Combining Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarit Kraus

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Extensive work has been conducted both in game theory and logic to model strategic interaction. An important question is whether we can use these theories to design agents for interacting with people? On the one hand, they provide a formal design specification for agent strategies. On the other hand, people do not necessarily adhere to playing in accordance with these strategies, and their behavior is affected by a multitude of social and psychological factors. In this paper we will consider the question of whether strategies implied by theories of strategic behavior can be used by automated agents that interact proficiently with people. We will focus on automated agents that we built that need to interact with people in two negotiation settings: bargaining and deliberation. For bargaining we will study game-theory based equilibrium agents and for argumentation we will discuss logic-based argumentation theory. We will also consider security games and persuasion games and will discuss the benefits of using equilibrium based agents.

  10. Game Theory - Its Applications to Ethical Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cavagnetto Stefano

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of game theory according to Hargreaves-Heap and Varonfakis (1995 to understand human behaviour, and in particular ethical behaviour, is a valuable development, as game theory has gradually become one of the key frameworks to assist us in the understanding of social sciences. Esther (1982 and Aumann and Hart (1992 show that there are several studies that indicate the importance of a game theoretic framework in advancing our understanding of social behaviour and evolutionary sciences. Although the application of game theory in the above areas has largely been not formalised, its application in the fields of ethical conduct and human behaviour is at present developed in several respects with the gradual assistance of advances in related areas such as evolutionary biology and our understanding of group social behaviour.

  11. Mathematical programming and game theory for decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Bapat, R B; Das, A K; Parthasarathy, T

    2008-01-01

    This edited book presents recent developments and state-of-the-art review in various areas of mathematical programming and game theory. It is a peer-reviewed research monograph under the ISI Platinum Jubilee Series on Statistical Science and Interdisciplinary Research. This volume provides a panoramic view of theory and the applications of the methods of mathematical programming to problems in statistics, finance, games and electrical networks. It also provides an important as well as timely overview of research trends and focuses on the exciting areas like support vector machines, bilevel pro

  12. Fuzzy statistical decision-making theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Kabak, Özgür

    2016-01-01

    This book offers a comprehensive reference guide to fuzzy statistics and fuzzy decision-making techniques. It provides readers with all the necessary tools for making statistical inference in the case of incomplete information or insufficient data, where classical statistics cannot be applied. The respective chapters, written by prominent researchers, explain a wealth of both basic and advanced concepts including: fuzzy probability distributions, fuzzy frequency distributions, fuzzy Bayesian inference, fuzzy mean, mode and median, fuzzy dispersion, fuzzy p-value, and many others. To foster a better understanding, all the chapters include relevant numerical examples or case studies. Taken together, they form an excellent reference guide for researchers, lecturers and postgraduate students pursuing research on fuzzy statistics. Moreover, by extending all the main aspects of classical statistical decision-making to its fuzzy counterpart, the book presents a dynamic snapshot of the field that is expected to stimu...

  13. The conscious mind and its emergent properties; an analysis based on decision theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, James A

    2011-08-01

    The process of conscious and unconscious decision making is analyzed using decision theory. An essential part of an optimum decision strategy is the assessment of values and costs associated with correct and incorrect decisions. In the case of unconscious decisions this involves an automatic process akin to computation using numerical values. But for conscious decisions the conscious mind must experience the outcome of the decision as pleasure or pain. It is suggested that the rules of behavior are programmed in our genes but modified by experience of the society in which we are reared. Our unconscious then uses the rules to reward or punish our conscious mind for the decisions it makes. This is relevant to concepts of altruism and religion in society. It is consistent with the observation that we prefer beauty to utility. The decision theory equations also explain the paradox that a single index of happiness can be applied in society. The symptoms of mental illness can be due to appropriate or inappropriate action by the unconscious. The former indicates a psychological conflict between conscious and unconscious decision making. Inappropriate action indicates that a pathological process has switched on genetic networks that should be switched off. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The role of behavioral decision theory for cockpit information management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, Jon E.

    1991-01-01

    The focus of this report is the consideration of one form of cognition, judgment and decision making, while examining some information management issues associated with the implementation of new forms of automation. As technology matures and more tasks become suitable to automation, human factors researchers will have to consider the effect that increasing automation will have on operator performance. Current technology allows flight deck designers the opportunity to automate activities involving substantially more cognitive processing.

  15. Portfolio theory and the alternative decision rule of cost-effectiveness analysis: theoretical and practical considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Gafni, Amiram; Birch, Stephen

    2004-05-01

    Bridges and Terris (Soc. Sci. Med. (2004)) critique our paper on the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation in the presence of uncertainty and constrained resources within the context of a portfolio of health care programs (Sendi et al. Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207). They argue that by not adopting a formal portfolio theory approach we overlook the optimal solution. We show that these arguments stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation. In particular, the portfolio theory approach advocated by Bridges and Terris is based on the same theoretical assumptions that the alternative decision rule set out to relax. Moreover, Bridges and Terris acknowledge that the proposed portfolio theory approach may not identify the optimal solution to resource allocation problems. Hence, it provides neither theoretical nor practical improvements to the proposed alternative decision rule.

  16. Decision-making in Swiss home-like childbirth: A grounded theory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Yvonne; Frank, Franziska; Schläppy Muntwyler, Franziska; Fleming, Valerie; Pehlke-Milde, Jessica

    2017-12-01

    Decision-making in midwifery, including a claim for shared decision-making between midwives and women, is of major significance for the health of mother and child. Midwives have little information about how to share decision-making responsibilities with women, especially when complications arise during birth. To increase understanding of decision-making in complex home-like birth settings by exploring midwives' and women's perspectives and to develop a dynamic model integrating participatory processes for making shared decisions. The study, based on grounded theory methodology, analysed 20 interviews of midwives and 20 women who had experienced complications in home-like births. The central phenomenon that arose from the data was "defining/redefining decision as a joint commitment to healthy childbirth". The sub-indicators that make up this phenomenon were safety, responsibility, mutual and personal commitments. These sub-indicators were also identified to influence temporal conditions of decision-making and to apply different strategies for shared decision-making. Women adopted strategies such as delegating a decision, making the midwife's decision her own, challenging a decision or taking a decision driven by the dynamics of childbirth. Midwives employed strategies such as remaining indecisive, approving a woman's decision, making an informed decision or taking the necessary decision. To respond to recommendations for shared responsibility for care, midwives need to strengthen their shared decision-making skills. The visual model of decision-making in childbirth derived from the data provides a framework for transferring clinical reasoning into practice. Copyright © 2017 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. The Diffusion Decision Model: Theory and Data for Two-Choice Decision Tasks

    OpenAIRE

    Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2008-01-01

    The diffusion decision model allows detailed explanations of behavior in two-choice discrimination tasks. In this article, the model is reviewed to show how it translates behavioral data—accuracy, mean response times, and response time distributions—into components of cognitive processing. Three experiments are used to illustrate experimental manipulations of three components: stimulus difficulty affects the quality of information on which a decision is based; instructions emphasizing either ...

  18. Consensual decision-making model based on game theory for LNG processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, Luis; Dorao, Carlos A.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A Decision Making (DM) approach for LNG projects based on game theory is presented. ► DM framework was tested with two different cases, using analytical models and a simple LNG process. ► The problems were solved by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) binary coding and Nash-GA. ► Integrated models from the design and optimization of the process could result in more realistic outcome. ► The major challenge in such a framework is related to the uncertainties in the market models. - Abstract: Decision-Making (DM) in LNG projects is a quite complex process due to the number of actors, approval phases, large investments and capital return in the long time. Furthermore, due to the very high investment of a LNG project, a detailed and efficient DM process is required in order to minimize risks. In this work a Decision-Making (DM) approach for LNG projects is presented. The approach is based on a consensus algorithm to address the consensus output over a common value using cost functions within a framework based on game theory. The DM framework was tested with two different cases. The first case was used for evaluating the performance of the framework with analytical models, while the second case corresponds to a simple LNG process. The problems were solved by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) binary coding and Nash-GA. The results of the DM framework in the LNG project indicate that considering an integrated DM model and including the markets role from the design and optimization of the process more realistic outcome could be obtained. However, the major challenge in such a framework is related to the uncertainties in the market models.

  19. Exact results for integrable asymptotically-free field theories

    CERN Document Server

    Evans, J M; Evans, Jonathan M; Hollowood, Timothy J

    1995-01-01

    An account is given of a technique for testing the equivalence between an exact factorizable S-matrix and an asymptotically-free Lagrangian field theory in two space-time dimensions. The method provides a way of resolving CDD ambiguities in the S-matrix and it also allows for an exact determination of the physical mass in terms of the Lambda parameter of perturbation theory. The results for various specific examples are summarized. (To appear in the Proceedings of the Conference on Recent Developments in Quantum Field Theory and Statistical Mechanics, ICTP, Trieste, Easter 1995).

  20. Robust Energy Hub Management Using Information Gap Decision Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Javadi, Mohammad Sadegh; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust optimization framework for energy hub management. It is well known that the operation of energy systems can be negatively affected by uncertain parameters, such as stochastic load demand or generation. In this regard, it is of high significance to propose efficient...... tools in order to deal with uncertainties and to provide reliable operating conditions. On a broader scale, an energy hub includes diverse energy sources for supplying both electrical load and heating/cooling demands with stochastic behaviors. Therefore, this paper utilizes the Information Decision Gap...

  1. Doing what's right: A grounded theory of ethical decision-making in occupational therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanderKaay, Sandra; Letts, Lori; Jung, Bonny; Moll, Sandra E

    2018-04-20

    Ethical decision-making is an important aspect of reasoning in occupational therapy practice. However, the process of ethical decision-making within the broader context of reasoning is yet to be clearly explicated. The purpose of this study was to advance a theoretical understanding of the process by which occupational therapists make ethical decisions in day-to-day practice. A constructivist grounded theory approach was adopted, incorporating in-depth semi-structured interviews with 18 occupational therapists from a range of practice settings and years of experience. Initially, participants nominated as key informants who were able to reflect on their decision-making processes were recruited. Theoretical sampling informed subsequent stages of data collection. Participants were asked to describe their process of ethical decision-making using scenarios from clinical practice. Interview transcripts were analyzed using a systematic process of initial then focused coding, and theoretical categorization to construct a theory regarding the process of ethical decision-making. An ethical decision-making prism was developed to capture three main processes: Considering the Fundamental Checklist, Consulting Others, and Doing What's Right. Ethical decision-making appeared to be an inductive and dialectical process with the occupational therapist at its core. Study findings advance our understanding of ethical decision-making in day-to-day clinical practice.

  2. Treatment decision-making and the form of risk communication: results of a factorial survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holmes-Rovner Margaret

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prospective users of preventive therapies often must evaluate complex information about therapeutic risks and benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of relative and absolute risk information on patient decision-making in scenarios typical of health information for patients. Methods Factorial experiments within a telephone survey of the Michigan adult, non-institutionalized, English-speaking population. Average interview lasted 23 minutes. Subjects and sample design: 952 randomly selected adults within a random-digit dial sample of Michigan households. Completion rate was 54.3%. Results When presented hypothetical information regarding additional risks of breast cancer from a medication to prevent a bone disease, respondents reduced their willingness to recommend a female friend take the medication compared to the baseline rate (66.8% = yes. The decrease was significantly greater with relative risk information. Additional benefit information regarding preventing heart disease from the medication increased willingness to recommend the medication to a female friend relative to the baseline scenario, but did not differ between absolute and relative risk formats. When information about both increased risk of breast cancer and reduced risk of heart disease were provided, typical respondents appeared to make rational decisions consistent with Expected Utility Theory, but the information presentation format affected choices. Those 11% – 33% making decisions contrary to the medical indications were more likely to be Hispanic, older, more educated, smokers, and to have children in the home. Conclusions In scenarios typical of health risk information, relative risk information led respondents to make non-normative decisions that were "corrected" when the frame used absolute risk information. This population sample made generally rational decisions when presented with absolute risk information, even in the

  3. A general theory of intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namboodiri, Vijay M K; Mihalas, Stefan; Marton, Tanya M; Hussain Shuler, Marshall G

    2014-01-01

    Animals and humans make decisions based on their expected outcomes. Since relevant outcomes are often delayed, perceiving delays and choosing between earlier vs. later rewards (intertemporal decision-making) is an essential component of animal behavior. The myriad observations made in experiments studying intertemporal decision-making and time perception have not yet been rationalized within a single theory. Here we present a theory-Training-Integrated Maximized Estimation of Reinforcement Rate (TIMERR)-that explains a wide variety of behavioral observations made in intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time. Our theory postulates that animals make intertemporal choices to optimize expected reward rates over a limited temporal window which includes a past integration interval-over which experienced reward rate is estimated-as well as the expected delay to future reward. Using this theory, we derive mathematical expressions for both the subjective value of a delayed reward and the subjective representation of the delay. A unique contribution of our work is in finding that the past integration interval directly determines the steepness of temporal discounting and the non-linearity of time perception. In so doing, our theory provides a single framework to understand both intertemporal decision-making and time perception.

  4. Decision Engines for Software Analysis Using Satisfiability Modulo Theories Solvers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjorner, Nikolaj

    2010-01-01

    The area of software analysis, testing and verification is now undergoing a revolution thanks to the use of automated and scalable support for logical methods. A well-recognized premise is that at the core of software analysis engines is invariably a component using logical formulas for describing states and transformations between system states. The process of using this information for discovering and checking program properties (including such important properties as safety and security) amounts to automatic theorem proving. In particular, theorem provers that directly support common software constructs offer a compelling basis. Such provers are commonly called satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) solvers. Z3 is a state-of-the-art SMT solver. It is developed at Microsoft Research. It can be used to check the satisfiability of logical formulas over one or more theories such as arithmetic, bit-vectors, lists, records and arrays. The talk describes some of the technology behind modern SMT solvers, including the solver Z3. Z3 is currently mainly targeted at solving problems that arise in software analysis and verification. It has been applied to various contexts, such as systems for dynamic symbolic simulation (Pex, SAGE, Vigilante), for program verification and extended static checking (Spec#/Boggie, VCC, HAVOC), for software model checking (Yogi, SLAM), model-based design (FORMULA), security protocol code (F7), program run-time analysis and invariant generation (VS3). We will describe how it integrates support for a variety of theories that arise naturally in the context of the applications. There are several new promising avenues and the talk will touch on some of these and the challenges related to SMT solvers. Proceedings

  5. Intelligent decision making in quality management theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Yanık, Seda

    2016-01-01

      This book presents recently developed intelligent techniques with applications and theory in the area of quality management. The involved applications of intelligence include techniques such as fuzzy sets, neural networks, genetic algorithms, etc. The book consists of classical quality management topics dealing with intelligent techniques for solving the complex quality management problems. The book will serve as an excellent reference for quality managers, researchers, lecturers and postgraduate students in this area. The authors of the chapters are well-known researchers in the area of quality management.  .

  6. Application of Bayesian statistical decision theory to the optimization of generating set maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Muller, S.

    1994-07-01

    Statistical decision theory could be a alternative for the optimization of preventive maintenance periodicity. In effect, this theory concerns the situation in which a decision maker has to make a choice between a set of reasonable decisions, and where the loss associated to a given decision depends on a probabilistic risk, called state of nature. In the case of maintenance optimization, the decisions to be analyzed are different periodicities proposed by the experts, given the observed feedback experience, the states of nature are the associated failure probabilities, and the losses are the expectations of the induced cost of maintenance and of consequences of the failures. As failure probabilities concern rare events, at the ultimate state of RCM analysis (failure of sub-component), and as expected foreseeable behaviour of equipment has to be evaluated by experts, Bayesian approach is successfully used to compute states of nature. In Bayesian decision theory, a prior distribution for failure probabilities is modeled from expert knowledge, and is combined with few stochastic information provided by feedback experience, giving a posterior distribution of failure probabilities. The optimized decision is the decision that minimizes the expected loss over the posterior distribution. This methodology has been applied to inspection and maintenance optimization of cylinders of diesel generator engines of 900 MW nuclear plants. In these plants, auxiliary electric power is supplied by 2 redundant diesel generators which are tested every 2 weeks during about 1 hour. Until now, during yearly refueling of each plant, one endoscopic inspection of diesel cylinders is performed, and every 5 operating years, all cylinders are replaced. RCM has shown that cylinder failures could be critical. So Bayesian decision theory has been applied, taking into account expert opinions, and possibility of aging when maintenance periodicity is extended. (authors). 8 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  7. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market

  8. Transversity results and computations in symplectic field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabert, Oliver

    2008-01-01

    Although the definition of symplectic field theory suggests that one has to count holomorphic curves in cylindrical manifolds R x V equipped with a cylindrical almost complex structure J, it is already well-known from Gromov-Witten theory that, due to the presence of multiply-covered curves, we in general cannot achieve transversality for all moduli spaces even for generic choices of J. In this thesis we treat the transversality problem of symplectic field theory in two important cases. In the first part of this thesis we are concerned with the rational symplectic field theory of Hamiltonian mapping tori, which is also called the Floer case. For this observe that in the general geometric setup for symplectic field theory, the contact manifolds can be replaced by mapping tori M φ of symplectic manifolds (M,ω M ) with symplectomorphisms φ. While the cylindrical contact homology of M φ is given by the Floer homologies of powers of φ, the other algebraic invariants of symplectic field theory for M φ provide natural generalizations of symplectic Floer homology. For symplectically aspherical M and Hamiltonian φ we study the moduli spaces of rational curves and prove a transversality result, which does not need the polyfold theory by Hofer, Wysocki and Zehnder and allows us to compute the full contact homology of M φ ≅ S 1 x M. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the branched covers of trivial cylinders over closed Reeb orbits, which are the trivial examples of punctured holomorphic curves studied in rational symplectic field theory. Since all moduli spaces of trivial curves with virtual dimension one cannot be regular, we use obstruction bundles in order to find compact perturbations making the Cauchy-Riemann operator transversal to the zero section and show that the algebraic count of elements in the resulting regular moduli spaces is zero. Once the analytical foundations of symplectic field theory are established, our result implies that the

  9. Transversity results and computations in symplectic field theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabert, Oliver

    2008-02-21

    Although the definition of symplectic field theory suggests that one has to count holomorphic curves in cylindrical manifolds R x V equipped with a cylindrical almost complex structure J, it is already well-known from Gromov-Witten theory that, due to the presence of multiply-covered curves, we in general cannot achieve transversality for all moduli spaces even for generic choices of J. In this thesis we treat the transversality problem of symplectic field theory in two important cases. In the first part of this thesis we are concerned with the rational symplectic field theory of Hamiltonian mapping tori, which is also called the Floer case. For this observe that in the general geometric setup for symplectic field theory, the contact manifolds can be replaced by mapping tori M{sub {phi}} of symplectic manifolds (M,{omega}{sub M}) with symplectomorphisms {phi}. While the cylindrical contact homology of M{sub {phi}} is given by the Floer homologies of powers of {phi}, the other algebraic invariants of symplectic field theory for M{sub {phi}} provide natural generalizations of symplectic Floer homology. For symplectically aspherical M and Hamiltonian {phi} we study the moduli spaces of rational curves and prove a transversality result, which does not need the polyfold theory by Hofer, Wysocki and Zehnder and allows us to compute the full contact homology of M{sub {phi}} {approx_equal} S{sup 1} x M. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the branched covers of trivial cylinders over closed Reeb orbits, which are the trivial examples of punctured holomorphic curves studied in rational symplectic field theory. Since all moduli spaces of trivial curves with virtual dimension one cannot be regular, we use obstruction bundles in order to find compact perturbations making the Cauchy-Riemann operator transversal to the zero section and show that the algebraic count of elements in the resulting regular moduli spaces is zero. Once the analytical foundations of symplectic

  10. An attentional theory of emotional influences on risky decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Daniel S; Ramirez, Patrick A

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that choices between gambles can depend not only on the probabilities of gains or losses but also on the emotional richness of the items to be gained or lost. Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001) demonstrated that overweighting of low probabilities is magnified if the possible events are emotionally rich, such as a kiss versus an amount of money. Ramirez (2010) showed that persistence in the face of comparable numerically presented losses is greater when the scenario involves taking care of a pet (emotionally richer) versus a business (emotionally poorer). Much of this phenomenon is captured in a neural network model of the Rottenstreich-Hsee data (Levine, 2012). The model is based on interactions among the orbitofrontal cortex, amygdala, cingulate, striatum, thalamus, and premotor cortex that implement categorization of multiattribute vectors representing choice options, in a manner consistent with the gists of fuzzy trace theory. Before categorization, the vectors are weighted by selective attention to attributes that are either emotionally salient or task relevant, with increasing emotional arousal shifting the attentional weights away from numerical attributes such as precise probabilities. This interpretation is supported by the data of Hsee and Rottenstreich (2004) showing that how much participants would pay to save endangered animals is not influenced by the number to be saved if they see pictures but is influenced by the number if they are given verbal descriptions. The theory suggests a few open questions. How are the selective attentional signals represented in the interactions between prefrontal cortex and subcortical areas? Would the salience of numerical attributes still be reduced with high arousal in highly numerate participants? Would the differences between the pet and business scenarios be altered if the positive or negative feedback participants received were shown via pictures rather than numbers? Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All

  11. An empirical test of the decision to lie component of the Activation-Decision-Construction-Action Theory (ADCAT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masip, Jaume; Blandón-Gitlin, Iris; de la Riva, Clara; Herrero, Carmen

    2016-09-01

    Meta-analyses reveal that behavioral differences between liars and truth tellers are small. To facilitate lie detection, researchers are currently developing interviewing approaches to increase these differences. Some of these approaches assume that lying is cognitively more difficult than truth telling; however, they are not based on specific cognitive theories of lie production, which are rare. Here we examined one existing theory, Walczyk et al.'s (2014) Activation-Decision-Construction-Action Theory (ADCAT). We tested the Decision component. According to ADCAT, people decide whether to lie or tell the truth as if they were using a specific mathematical formula to calculate the motivation to lie from (a) the probability of a number of outcomes derived from lying vs. telling the truth, and (b) the costs/benefits associated with each outcome. In this study, participants read several hypothetical scenarios and indicated whether they would lie or tell the truth in each scenario (Questionnaire 1). Next, they answered several questions about the consequences of lying vs. telling the truth in each scenario, and rated the probability and valence of each consequence (Questionnaire 2). Significant associations were found between the participants' dichotomous decision to lie/tell the truth in Questionnaire 1 and their motivation to lie scores calculated from the Questionnaire 2 data. However, interestingly, whereas the expected consequences of truth telling were associated with the decision to lie vs. tell the truth, the expected consequences of lying were not. Suggestions are made to refine ADCAT, which can be a useful theoretical framework to guide deception research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Scientific decision of the Chernobyl accident problems (results of 1997)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplya, E.F.; Rolevich, I.V.

    1998-12-01

    In the publication are summarized the basic results of the researches executed in 1997 in the framework of the 'Scientific maintenance of the decision of problems of the Chernobyl NPP accident consequences' of the State program of Republic of Belarus for minimization and overcoming of the Chernobyl NPP accident consequences on 1996-2000 on the following directions: dose monitoring of the population, estimation and forecast of both collective irradiation dozes and risks of radiation induced diseases; development and ground of the measures for increase of radiation protection of the population of Belarus during of the reducing period after the Chernobyl accident; study of influence of radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident on health of people, development of methods and means of diagnostics, treatment and preventive maintenance of diseases for various categories of the victims; optimisation of the system of measures for preservation of health of the victim population and development of ways for increase of it effectiveness; creation of the effective both prophylactic means and food additives for treatment and rehabilitation of the persons having suffered after the Chernobyl accident; development of complex system of an estimation and decision-making on problems of radiation protection of the population living on contaminated territories; development and optimization of a complex of measures for effective land use and decrease of radioactive contamination of agricultural production in order to reduce irradiation dozes of the population; development of complex technologies and means of decontamination, treatment and burial of radioactive wastes; study of the radioisotopes behaviour dynamics in environment (air, water, ground), ecosystems and populated areas; optimization of the system of radiation ecological monitoring in the republic and scientific methodical ways of it fulfilling; study of effects of low doze irradiation and combined influences, search

  13. Prospect Theory and the Risks Involved in Decision-Making: Content Analysis in ProQuest Articles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sady Darcy da Silva-Junior

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the objective is to perform content analysis on articles of a reliable database, dealing with the prospect theory and the risks involved in the decision making process, evaluating some criteria for the theoretical and methodological approaches that allow a joint analysis and comparative. Therefore, a search in ProQuest database was performed which resulted in 15 articles that were submitted to content analysis process, based on the evaluation of nine factors identified by researchers. Among the results highlight the critical attitude to the prospect theory, in contrast to the assertion of his representative capacity of real situations and application in various situations.

  14. A general theory of intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijay Mohan eK Namboodiri

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Animals and humans make decisions based on their expected outcomes. Since relevant outcomes are often delayed, perceiving delays and choosing between earlier versus later rewards (intertemporal decision-making is an essential component of animal behavior. The myriad observations made in experiments studying intertemporal decision-making and time perception have not yet been rationalized within a single theory. Here we present a theory—Training-Integrated Maximized Estimation of Reinforcement Rate (TIMERR—that explains a wide variety of behavioral observations made in intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time. Our theory postulates that animals make intertemporal choices to optimize expected reward rates over a limited temporal window which includes a past integration interval—over which experienced reward rate is estimated—as well as the expected delay to future reward. Using this theory, we derive mathematical expressions for both the subjective value of a delayed reward and the subjective representation of the delay. A unique contribution of our work is in finding that the past integration interval directly determines the steepness of temporal discounting and the nonlinearity of time perception. In so doing, our theory provides a single framework to understand both intertemporal decision-making and time perception.

  15. Mind-ception: Investigating the relationship between theory of mind and decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Ahamed, Hassan; Kurczek, Jake

    2016-01-01

    Ahamed, H., & Kurczek, J. (2016, April). Mind-ception: Investigating the relationship between theory of mind and decision making. Poster Presentation at the 31st Annual LVAIC Undergraduate Psychology Conference. Bethlehem, PA. •  Much of our decision making (DM) requires either direct or indirect considerations of others’ thoughts (McCubbins, et al., 2012). •  Theory of Mind (ToM – the capacity to infer the thoughts/intentions of others) is an abi...

  16. Expert Knowledge Influences Decision-Making for Couples Receiving Positive Prenatal Chromosomal Microarray Testing Results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubel, M A; Werner-Lin, A; Barg, F K; Bernhardt, B A

    2017-09-01

    To assess how participants receiving abnormal prenatal genetic testing results seek information and understand the implications of results, 27 US female patients and 12 of their male partners receiving positive prenatal microarray testing results completed semi-structured phone interviews. These interviews documented participant experiences with chromosomal microarray testing, understanding of and emotional response to receiving results, factors affecting decision-making about testing and pregnancy termination, and psychosocial needs throughout the testing process. Interview data were analyzed using a modified grounded theory approach. In the absence of certainty about the implications of results, understanding of results is shaped by biomedical expert knowledge (BEK) and cultural expert knowledge (CEK). When there is a dearth of BEK, as in the case of receiving results of uncertain significance, participants rely on CEK, including religious/spiritual beliefs, "gut instinct," embodied knowledge, and social network informants. CEK is a powerful platform to guide understanding of prenatal genetic testing results. The utility of culturally situated expert knowledge during testing uncertainty emphasizes that decision-making occurs within discourses beyond the biomedical domain. These forms of "knowing" may be integrated into clinical consideration of efficacious patient assessment and counseling.

  17. Scheduling results applicable to decision-theoretic troubleshooting

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lín, Václav

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 1 (2015), s. 87-107 ISSN 0888-613X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-20012S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decision-theoretic troubleshooting * Single machine scheduling with weighted flowtime * Algorithms * Computational complexity Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.696, year: 2015

  18. An unprecedented multi attribute decision making using graph theory matrix approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.K. Geetha

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A frame work for investigating the best combination of functioning parameters on a variable compression ratio diesel engine is proposed in the present study using a multi attribute optimization methodology, Graph Theory Matrix Approach. The functioning parameters, attributes, sub attributes and functioning variables of sub attributes are chosen based on expert’s opinion and literature review. The directed graphs are developed for attributes and sub attributes. The ‘Parameter Index’ was calculated for all trials to choose the best trial. The experimental results are verified with the theoretical data. Functioning parameters with combination of compression ratio of 17, fuel injection pressure of 20 N/mm2 and fuel injection pressure of 21°bTDC was found to be best. The proposed method allows the decision maker to systematically and logically find the best combination of functioning parameters.

  19. Drivers’ decision-making when attempting to cross an intersection results from choice between affordances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geoffrey eMARTI

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In theory, a safe approach to an intersection implies that the driver can simultaneously manage two scenarios: they either cross or they must give way to an oncoming vehicle. In this article we formalize the critical time for safe crossing (CTcross and the critical time for safe stopping (CTstop to represent crossing and stopping possibilities, respectively. We describe these critical times in terms of affordances and empirically test their respective contribution to the driver’s decision-making process. Using a driving simulator, three groups of participants drove cars with identical acceleration capabilities and different braking capabilities. They were asked to try to cross an intersection where there was an oncoming vehicle, if they deemed the maneuver to be safe. If not, they could decide to stop or, as a last resort, make an emergency exit. The intersections were identical among groups.Results showed that although the crossing possibilities (CTcross were the same for all groups, there were between-group differences in crossing frequency. This suggests that stopping possibilities (CTstop play a role in the driver’s decision-making process, in addition to the crossing possibilities. These results can be accounted for by a behavioral model of decision making, and provide support for the hypothesis of choice between affordances.

  20. More results on theories inside the conformal window

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lombardo, Mario Paola; Miura, Kohtaron; Nunes da Silva, Tiago; Pallante, Elisabetta; Montoro, Nestor Subiron

    2014-01-01

    We present an update of our study in progress on the spectrum and topology of the SU ( 3 ) gauge theory with N f = 12 flavors in the fundamental representation. We are extending our previously published results with ensembles at larger volumes and smaller quark masses and refining our method of

  1. Some recent results in finitely additive white noise theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bagchi, Arunabha; Mazumdar, Ravi

    1994-01-01

    We present a short survey of some very recent results on the finitely additive white noise theory. We discuss the Markov property of the solution of a stochastic differential equation driven directly by a white noise, study the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the measure induced by nonlinear

  2. Social contract theory and just decision making: lessons from genetic testing for the BRCA mutations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Jones, Bryn; Burgess, Michael M

    2004-06-01

    Decisions about funding health services are crucial to controlling costs in health care insurance plans, yet they encounter serious challenges from intellectual property protection--e.g., patents--of health care services. Using Myriad Genetics' commercial genetic susceptibility test for hereditary breast cancer (BRCA testing) in the context of the Canadian health insurance system as a case study, this paper applies concepts from social contract theory to help develop more just and rational approaches to health care decision making. Specifically, Daniel's and Sabin's "accountability for reasonableness" is compared to broader notions of public consultation, demonstrating that expert assessments in specific decisions must be transparent and accountable and supplemented by public consultation.

  3. The application of financial options theory to electric utility decision making in integrated resource planning and maintenance shutdowns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felder, F.

    1995-01-01

    Increased competition in wholesale power generation will allow electric utilities to use financial models to improve their decision making. This competition will result in the creation of electricity spot, futures, and forward markets, which will provide necessary information for utility executives to used advance financial tools, such as random walk models and options theory. These models will allow executives to place a value on risk. Once this value is known, executives can determine how best to manage that risk, whether by entering into financial transactions, adjusting their operational and planning decisions, or both

  4. Hesitant Fuzzy Thermodynamic Method for Emergency Decision Making Based on Prospect Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Peijia; Xu, Zeshui; Hao, Zhinan

    2017-09-01

    Due to the timeliness of emergency response and much unknown information in emergency situations, this paper proposes a method to deal with the emergency decision making, which can comprehensively reflect the emergency decision making process. By utilizing the hesitant fuzzy elements to represent the fuzziness of the objects and the hesitant thought of the experts, this paper introduces the negative exponential function into the prospect theory so as to portray the psychological behaviors of the experts, which transforms the hesitant fuzzy decision matrix into the hesitant fuzzy prospect decision matrix (HFPDM) according to the expectation-levels. Then, this paper applies the energy and the entropy in thermodynamics to take the quantity and the quality of the decision values into account, and defines the thermodynamic decision making parameters based on the HFPDM. Accordingly, a whole procedure for emergency decision making is conducted. What is more, some experiments are designed to demonstrate and improve the validation of the emergency decision making procedure. Last but not the least, this paper makes a case study about the emergency decision making in the firing and exploding at Port Group in Tianjin Binhai New Area, which manifests the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.

  5. The Use of Game Theory for Making Rational Decisions in Business Negations: A Conceptual Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kestutis Peleckis

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The objective of this paper is a comparative analysis of the world literature on game theory and its applicability for rational decision-making in negotiations and creation of a model supporting strategic decisions in negotiations. Research Design & Methods: Systematic, comparative, logical analysis and synthesis of the scientific literature. In order to create an algorithm of negotiations statements on theory of graphs, game theory and theory of heuristic algorithm were applied. Findings: The article proposes an algorithm which combines the game theory approach with heuristic algorithms in order to reflect the specifics of negotiations better. Such an algorithm can be used to support strategic decisions in negotiations and is useful for better understanding of the strategic management of negotiating processes. Implications & Recommendations: The proposed mathematical algorithm for the strategy formulation of international business negotiations can be used in electronic business negotiations, both as a standalone tool, or as partially requiring support by the negotiator. Contribution & Value Added: The game theory methods support rational solutions in business negotiations, as they enable to analyse the interacting forces. This is particularly relevant in international business negotiations, where participants from different cultures can be faced with numerous uncertainties.

  6. A decision theory perspective on why women do or do not decide to have cancer screening: systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerson, Kelly; Preston, Stephanie D

    2009-06-01

    This paper is a report of a review in which decision theory from economics and psychology was applied to understand why some women with access to care do not seek cancer screening. Mammography and cervical smear testing are effective modes of cancer screening, yet many women choose not to be screened. Nurses need to understand the reasons behind women's choices to improve adherence. Research papers published between January 1994 and November 2008 were identified using the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, MEDLINE and PsycINFO data bases. The search was performed using the following terms: cervical cancer screening, breast cancer screening, decision, choice, adherence and framing. Forty-seven papers were identified and reviewed for relevance to the search criteria. Nineteen papers met the search criteria. For each paper, reasons for obtaining or not obtaining cancer screening were recorded, and organized into four relevant decision theory principles: emotions, Prospect Theory, optimism bias and framing. All women have fears and uncertainty, but the sources of their fears differ, producing two main decision scenarios. Non-adherence results when women fear medical examinations, providers, tests and procedures, do not have/seek knowledge about risk and frame their current health as the status quo. Adherence is achieved when women fear cancer, but trust care providers, seek knowledge, understand risk and frame routine care as the status quo. Nurses need to address proactively women's perceptions and knowledge about screening by openly and uniformly discussing the importance and benefits.

  7. The Khachaturyan theory of elastic inclusions: Recollections and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, J. W.

    2010-01-01

    In keeping with the assignment, this paper has two parts. The first is a personal recollection of my interactions with Professor Armen Khachaturyan since he first visited Berkeley in the 1970s. The second part is a review of the Khachaturyan formulation of the theory of elastic inclusions, with emphasis on results found since his classic monograph on the Theory of Structural Transformations in Solids [Wiley, New York, 1983]. The focus here is on the shapes and habits of coherent inclusions. The basic theory is presented, briefly, to exhibit Khachaturyan's results for the strain and energy within a coherent inclusion and show that the elastic energy is minimal for a thin-plate morphology with a definite habit. The preferred habit of the thin-plate inclusion is then discussed and computed for inclusions with dyadic strain (including the dislocation loop) and coherent inclusions with orthorhombic or simpler symmetry. This is followed by a discussion of the evolution of precipitate shape during coarsening, including the theory of the spontaneous splitting of coarsening precipitates and the development of octahedral or tetrahedral shapes.

  8. Theoretical Developments in Decision Field Theory: Comment on Tsetsos, Usher, and Chater (2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hotaling, Jared M.; Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Li, Jiyun

    2010-01-01

    Tsetsos, Usher, and Chater (2010) presented several criticisms of decision field theory (DFT) involving its distance function, instability under externally controlled stopping times, and lack of robustness to various multialternative choice scenarios. Here, we counter those claims with a specification of a distance function based on the…

  9. Chaotic Feedback Loops within Decision Making Groups: Towards an Integration of Chaos Theory and Cybernetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keaten, James A.

    This paper offers a model that integrates chaos theory and cybernetics, which can be used to describe the structure of decision making within small groups. The paper begins with an overview of cybernetics and chaos. Definitional characteristics of cybernetics are reviewed along with salient constructs, such as goal-seeking, feedback, feedback…

  10. Factors Affecting Christian Parents' School Choice Decision Processes: A Grounded Theory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prichard, Tami G.; Swezey, James A.

    2016-01-01

    This study identifies factors affecting the decision processes for school choice by Christian parents. Grounded theory design incorporated interview transcripts, field notes, and a reflective journal to analyze themes. Comparative analysis, including open, axial, and selective coding, was used to reduce the coded statements to five code families:…

  11. Actor-network-theory perspective on a forestry decision support system design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boerboom, L.G.J.; Ferritti, V.

    2014-01-01

    Use of decision support systems (DSS) has thus far been framed as a social process of adoption or technical process of usability. We analyze the development of a DSS as a process of institutionalization of new as well as drift of existing practices. We write an Actor-Network-Theory (ANT) account,

  12. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murshid, Mohsen Ali; Mohaidin, Zurina

    2017-01-01

    To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the 'persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model', the stimuli-response marketing model', the 'agency theory', the theory of planned behaviour,' and 'social power theory,' in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

  13. Risky Business: An Integrated Institutional Theory for Understanding High-Risk Decision Making in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lauren A.; Angulo, A. J.

    2018-01-01

    Lauren A. Turner and A. J. Angulo explore how institutional theory can be applied to explain variance in higher education organizational strategies. Given strong regulatory, normative, and cultural-cognitive pressures to conform, they ask, why do some colleges engage in high-risk decision making? To answer this, they bring together classic and…

  14. Combination of uncertainty theories and decision-aiding methods for natural risk management in a context of imperfect information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Dupouy, Guillaume; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

    2017-04-01

    In mountain areas, natural phenomena such as snow avalanches, debris-flows and rock-falls, put people and objects at risk with sometimes dramatic consequences. Risk is classically considered as a combination of hazard, the combination of the intensity and frequency of the phenomenon, and vulnerability which corresponds to the consequences of the phenomenon on exposed people and material assets. Risk management consists in identifying the risk level as well as choosing the best strategies for risk prevention, i.e. mitigation. In the context of natural phenomena in mountainous areas, technical and scientific knowledge is often lacking. Risk management decisions are therefore based on imperfect information. This information comes from more or less reliable sources ranging from historical data, expert assessments, numerical simulations etc. Finally, risk management decisions are the result of complex knowledge management and reasoning processes. Tracing the information and propagating information quality from data acquisition to decisions are therefore important steps in the decision-making process. One major goal today is therefore to assist decision-making while considering the availability, quality and reliability of information content and sources. A global integrated framework is proposed to improve the risk management process in a context of information imperfection provided by more or less reliable sources: uncertainty as well as imprecision, inconsistency and incompleteness are considered. Several methods are used and associated in an original way: sequential decision context description, development of specific multi-criteria decision-making methods, imperfection propagation in numerical modeling and information fusion. This framework not only assists in decision-making but also traces the process and evaluates the impact of information quality on decision-making. We focus and present two main developments. The first one relates to uncertainty and imprecision

  15. Motivation, working memory, and decision making: a cognitive-motivational theory of personality vulnerability to alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finn, Peter R

    2002-09-01

    This article presents a cognitive-motivational theory (CMT) of the mechanisms associated with three basic dimensions of personality vulnerability to alcoholism, impulsivity/novelty seeking, harm avoidance, and excitement seeking. CMT describes the interrelationships between activity in basic motivational systems and attentional, decision-making and working memory processes as the mechanisms associated with variation in each personality trait. Impulsivity/novelty seeking reflects activity in both appetitive and inhibitory motivational systems, greater attention to reward cues, and increased emotional reactivity to reward and frustration. Harm avoidance reflects individual differences in fearfulness and activity in specific inhibitory systems. Excitement seeking reflects the need to engage in appetitive behaviors in less predictable environments to experience positive affect. CMT also describes the impact of working memory and the specific motivational processes underlying each trait dimension on the dynamics of decision making from the perspective of decision field theory.

  16. Theory of mind and decision-making processes are impaired in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Chunhua; Zhu, Youling; Mu, Yanfang; Chen, Bing; Dong, Bin; Cheng, Huaidong; Hu, Panpan; Zhu, Chunyan; Wang, Kai

    2015-02-15

    Prefrontal cortex plays a vital role in the theory of mind (ToM) and decision making, as shown in functional brain imaging and lesion studies. Considering the primary neuropathology of Parkinson's disease (PD) involving the frontal lobe system, patients with PD are expected to exhibit deficits in ToM and social decision making. The aim of this study was to investigate affective ToM and decision making in patients with PD and healthy controls (HC) in a task assessing affective ToM (Reading the Mind in the Eyes, RME) and two decision-making tasks (Iowa Gambling Task, IGT; Game of Dice Task, GDT). Consistent with previous findings, patients with PD were impaired in the affective ToM task, and when making decisions under ambiguity and in risk situations. The score of emotion recognition in the RME task was negatively correlated with the severity of the disease and positively correlated with the total number of advantageous cards chosen in the IGT. However, the final capital in the GDT was correlated with memory impairment. The present study implies that affective ToM and decision making under ambiguity may share similar neural mechanisms, while decision making under ambiguity and decision making under risk may involve processing within different neural networks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. METHOD OF STRATEGIC PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING CONSIDERING THE LIFE CYCLE THEORY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetiana Kniazieva

    2017-12-01

    are made. Results of the survey are to substantiate the methodology of strategic planning under conditions of external environment uncertainty with the consideration of the life cycle theory. Practical implications: the possibilities of using life-cycle models allow: 1. reasonably predicting sales and plan production program; 2. determining the basic strategies at different stages of development; 3. determining the sequence of stages of enterprise development; 4. ensuring harmonious interaction of organizational characteristics with the external environment factors that influence the process of organizational development. Increasing the sustainability of the organization’s development can be achieved by re-establishment of dynamic changes in the plan in terms of using effective methods for forecasting with the consideration of the life cycle theory. It is necessary to take into account the interconnection between all levels of life cycles: industry, technology, enterprises, product; ensuring the competitive advantage of the organization. Using the theory of optimal solutions making in uncertain conditions under the analysis of long-term projects allows transferring qualitative factors into quantitative indicators that can be used in the future to bring investment projects to the same kind and choose the best. In conditions of increased uncertainty of the external environment, it is necessary to develop the theory of enterprise management, taking into account its life cycle, as well as the life cycle of its separate elements and processes at all levels. Combination of strategic management with the life cycles theory will increase the objectivity and effectiveness of taken management decisions. The accounting of the organization life cycles in strategic planning allows choosing an effective strategy.

  18. Risk perception and communication in vaccination decisions: a fuzzy-trace theory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F

    2012-05-28

    The tenets of fuzzy-trace theory, along with prior research on risk perception and risk communication, are used to develop a process model of vaccination decisions in the era of Web 2.0. The theory characterizes these decisions in terms of background knowledge, dual mental representations (verbatim and gist), retrieval of values, and application of values to representations in context. Lack of knowledge interferes with the ability to extract the essential meaning, or gist, of vaccination messages. Prevention decisions have, by definition, a status quo option of "feeling okay." Psychological evidence from other prevention decisions, such as cancer screening, indicates that many people initially mentally represent their decision options in terms of simple, categorical gist: a choice between (a) a feeling-okay option (e.g., the unvaccinated status quo) versus (b) taking up preventive behavior that can have two potential categorical outcomes: feeling okay or not feeling okay. Hence, applying the same theoretical rules as used to explain framing effects and the Allais paradox, the decision to get a flu shot, for example, boils down to feeling okay (not sick) versus feeling okay (not sick) or not feeling okay (sick, side effects, or death). Because feeling okay is superior to not feeling okay (a retrieved value), this impoverished gist supports choosing not to have the flu vaccine. Anti-vaccination sources provide more coherent accounts of the gist of vaccination than official sources, filling a need to understand rare adverse outcomes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. [Prediction of regional soil quality based on mutual information theory integrated with decision tree algorithm].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Fen-Fang; Wang, Ke; Yang, Ning; Yan, Shi-Guang; Zheng, Xin-Yu

    2012-02-01

    In this paper, some main factors such as soil type, land use pattern, lithology type, topography, road, and industry type that affect soil quality were used to precisely obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of regional soil quality, mutual information theory was adopted to select the main environmental factors, and decision tree algorithm See 5.0 was applied to predict the grade of regional soil quality. The main factors affecting regional soil quality were soil type, land use, lithology type, distance to town, distance to water area, altitude, distance to road, and distance to industrial land. The prediction accuracy of the decision tree model with the variables selected by mutual information was obviously higher than that of the model with all variables, and, for the former model, whether of decision tree or of decision rule, its prediction accuracy was all higher than 80%. Based on the continuous and categorical data, the method of mutual information theory integrated with decision tree could not only reduce the number of input parameters for decision tree algorithm, but also predict and assess regional soil quality effectively.

  20. The window of opportunity: decision theory and the timing of prognostic tests for newborn infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Dominic

    2009-11-01

    In many forms of severe acute brain injury there is an early phase when prognosis is uncertain, followed later by physiological recovery and the possibility of more certain predictions of future impairment. There may be a window of opportunity for withdrawal of life support early, but if decisions are delayed there is the risk that the patient will survive with severe impairment. In this paper I focus on the example of neonatal encephalopathy and the question of the timing of prognostic tests and decisions to continue or to withdraw life-sustaining treatment. Should testing be performed early or later; and how should parents decide what to do given the conflicting values at stake? I apply decision theory to the problem, using sensitivity analysis to assess how different features of the tests or different values would affect a decision to perform early or late prognostic testing. I draw some general conclusions from this model for decisions about the timing of testing in neonatal encephalopathy. Finally I consider possible solutions to the problem posed by the window of opportunity. Decision theory highlights the costs of uncertainty. This may prompt further research into improving prognostic tests. But it may also prompt us to reconsider our current attitudes towards the palliative care of newborn infants predicted to be severely impaired.

  1. Rigorous results in quantum theory of stimulated Raman scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rupasov, V.I.

    1993-01-01

    The modern theory of stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) of light in resonant media is based on the investigations of appropriate integrable models of the classical field theory by means of the inverse problem method. But, strictly speaking, Raman scattering is a pure spontaneous process and, hence, it is necessary to take into account a quantum nature of the phenomenon. Moreover, there are some questions and problems, for example, the problem of scattered photons statistics, which can be studied only within the framework of the quantum field theory. We have developed an exact quantum theory of SRS for the case of point-like geometry of resonant media (two-level atoms or harmonic oscillators) of the radius r much-lt λ 0 , where λ 0 is the typical wavelength of the light, but all our results are also valid for the case of short extended medium of the length L much-lt l p (l p is the typical size of pulses) when the spatially homogeneous approximation is valid

  2. Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

    2012-12-01

    Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Evidence-based decision making in health care settings: from theory to practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohn, Melanie Kazman; Berta, Whitney; Langley, Ann; Davis, David

    2011-01-01

    The relatively recent attention that evidence-based decision making has received in health care management has been at least in part due to the profound influence of evidence-based medicine. The result has been several comparisons in the literature between the use of evidence in health care management decisions and the use of evidence in medical decision making. Direct comparison, however, may be problematic, given the differences between medicine and management as they relate to (1) the nature of evidence that is brought to bear on decision making; (2) the maturity of empirical research in each field (in particular, studies that have substantiated whether or not and how evidence-based decision making is enacted); and (3) the context within which evidence-based decisions are made. By simultaneously reviewing evidence-based medicine and management, this chapter aims to inform future theorizing and empirical research on evidence-based decision making in health care settings.

  4. A decision support system prototype including human factors based on the TOGA meta-theory approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappelli, M.; Memmi, F.; Gadomski, A. M.; Sepielli, M.

    2012-01-01

    The human contribution to the risk of operation of complex technological systems is often not negligible and sometimes tends to become significant, as shown by many reports on incidents and accidents occurred in the past inside Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). An error of a human operator of a NPP can derive by both omission and commission. For instance, complex commission errors can also lead to significant catastrophic technological accidents, as for the case of the Three Mile Island accident. Typically, the problem is analyzed by focusing on the single event chain that has provoked the incident or accident. What is needed is a general framework able to include as many parameters as possible, i.e. both technological and human factors. Such a general model could allow to envisage an omission or commission error before it can happen or, alternatively, suggest preferred actions to do in order to take countermeasures to neutralize the effect of the error before it becomes critical. In this paper, a preliminary Decision Support System (DSS) based on the so-called (-) TOGA meta-theory approach is presented. The application of such a theory to the management of nuclear power plants has been presented in the previous ICAPP 2011. Here, a human factor simulator prototype is proposed in order to include the effect of human errors in the decision path. The DSS has been developed using a TRIGA research reactor as reference plant, and implemented using the LabVIEW programming environment and the Finite State Machine (FSM) model The proposed DSS shows how to apply the Universal Reasoning Paradigm (URP) and the Universal Management Paradigm (UMP) to a real plant context. The DSS receives inputs from instrumentation data and gives as output a suggested decision. It is obtained as the result of an internal elaborating process based on a performance function. The latter, describes the degree of satisfaction and efficiency, which are dependent on the level of responsibility related to

  5. Decision Making Models in the Financial Market: A Study in the Light of Prospect Theory and Limited Rationality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Diego Souza Queiroz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine whether the decision-making models present in Prospect Theory and the theory of limited rationality could help managers of financial institutions identify and control the emotions and rational limitations involved in the credit granting process in the financial market. To this end, a study was carried out with 17 bank managers as experimental group and 31 other managers from different areas as control group. Adopting a quantitative approach to research, questionnaires were sent electronically to a number of bank branches. Five scenarios were presented, seeking to identify the influence of behavioral factors on decisions in situations of risk. In addition, emotional triggers were included in some questions in order to verify the influence of this component on responses. Results were treated with SPSS software, using descriptive analysis of data and the statistical test Chi-square (χ². Results observed for the five scenarios indicated that emotions and limited rationality in complex environments tend to influence managers in their decision-making process. The study evidence suggests differences in decision-making in accordance with how the problem is presented.

  6. A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK EXAMINING THE ANTECEDENTS OF CAREER DECISIVENESS USING MOTIVATION SYSTEMS THEORY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srabasti CHATTERJEE

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available An extensive body of vocational research has been dedicated to the topic of career-decision making behavior. Work is integral to human functioning, and all psychologists need to understand the role of work in people’s lives. Understanding factors influencing work choices and helping individuals effectively make career decisions is the focus of vocational psychologists. The external changes, such as shifts in the economy and labour force, as well as initiatives within the field are challenging the assumptions within vocational psychology. Under such circumstances, it becomes more important to study career decisiveness and more importantly examine the process of career planning which eventually leads to career decisiveness. So there is a need to assess attitudes, expectations, and emotions about one’s career in the form of Career Future Inventory to measure career choice or career decisiveness. Career decisiveness (CD has been an instrumental tool for vocational psychologists and a phenomenon of interest to parents, faculty, school counsellors, and others who advise young adults on their career choices. The current study shall investigate the antecedents and consequences of career decisiveness using the Motivational Systems Theory (MST. The major rational of applying MST is to understand career choice has its impetus both on the individual and contextual factors.

  7. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohaidin, Zurina

    2017-01-01

    To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research. PMID:28690701

  8. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Murshid M

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

  9. Theory of mind deficits partly mediate impaired social decision-making in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Liuqing; Li, Peifu; Mao, Haiying; Wang, Huiling; Shu, Chang; Bliksted, Vibeke; Zhou, Yuan

    2017-05-05

    Using paradigms from game theory, researchers have reported abnormal decision-making in social context in patients with schizophrenia. However, less is known about the underpinnings of the impairment. This study aimed to test whether theory of mind (ToM) deficits and/or neurocognitive dysfunctions mediate impaired social decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. We compared thirty-five patients with schizophrenia to thirty-eight matched healthy controls with regard to social decision-making using the mini Ultimatum Game (mini UG), a paradigm from game theory. Additionally, we assessed ToM using the Theory of Mind Picture Stories Task, a mental state attribution task, and assessed neurocognition using the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia. Mediation analyses were performed on the data. In contrast to the behavioral pattern of healthy controls in the mini UG, the patients with schizophrenia significantly accepted more disadvantageous offers and rejected more advantageous offers, and showed reduced sensitivity to the fairness-related context changes in the mini UG. Impaired ToM and neurocognition were also found in the patients. Mediation analyses indicated that ToM but not neurocognition partially mediated the group differences on the disadvantageous and advantageous offers in the mini UG. Patients with schizophrenia exhibited impaired social decision-making. This impairment can be partly explained by their ToM deficits rather than neurocognitive deficits. However, the exact nature of the ToM deficits that mediate impaired social decision-making needs to be identified in future.

  10. An integrated theory of attention and decision making in visual signal detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Philip L; Ratcliff, Roger

    2009-04-01

    The simplest attentional task, detecting a cued stimulus in an otherwise empty visual field, produces complex patterns of performance. Attentional cues interact with backward masks and with spatial uncertainty, and there is a dissociation in the effects of these variables on accuracy and on response time. A computational theory of performance in this task is described. The theory links visual encoding, masking, spatial attention, visual short-term memory (VSTM), and perceptual decision making in an integrated dynamic framework. The theory assumes that decisions are made by a diffusion process driven by a neurally plausible, shunting VSTM. The VSTM trace encodes the transient outputs of early visual filters in a durable form that is preserved for the time needed to make a decision. Attention increases the efficiency of VSTM encoding, either by increasing the rate of trace formation or by reducing the delay before trace formation begins. The theory provides a detailed, quantitative account of attentional effects in spatial cuing tasks at the level of response accuracy and the response time distributions. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved

  11. Hybrid Multicriteria Group Decision Making Method for Information System Project Selection Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Guo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Information system (IS project selection is of critical importance to every organization in dynamic competing environment. The aim of this paper is to develop a hybrid multicriteria group decision making approach based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory for IS project selection. The decision makers’ assessment information can be expressed in the form of real numbers, interval-valued numbers, linguistic variables, and intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs. All these evaluation pieces of information can be transformed to the form of IFNs. Intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging (IFWA operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers into a group opinion. Intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to obtain the entropy weights of the criteria. TOPSIS method combined with intuitionistic fuzzy set is proposed to select appropriate IS project in group decision making environment. Finally, a numerical example for information system projects selection is given to illustrate application of hybrid multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM method based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory and TOPSIS method.

  12. Public Affairs Decision Making in the U.S. Air Force: An Application of Multiattribute Utility Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Prabu; Pierson, Michael M.

    1998-01-01

    Contributes to scholarship on public relations decision making and public relations theory. Examines decision making by United States Air Force public affairs personnel. Finds that only 48% of the decisions fit the public relations excellence criteria of accommodation and long-term relationship building. Finds also a negative correlation between…

  13. An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Stochastic Decision-Making Method Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Prospect Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the case-based reasoning method and prospect theory, this paper mainly focuses on finding a way to obtain decision-makers’ preferences and the criterion weights for stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems and classify alternatives. Firstly, we construct a new score function for an intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN considering the decision-making environment. Then, we aggregate the decision-making information in different natural states according to the prospect theory and test decision-making matrices. A mathematical programming model based on a case-based reasoning method is presented to obtain the criterion weights. Moreover, in the original decision-making problem, we integrate all the intuitionistic fuzzy decision-making matrices into an expectation matrix using the expected utility theory and classify or rank the alternatives by the case-based reasoning method. Finally, two illustrative examples are provided to illustrate the implementation process and applicability of the developed method.

  14. The Empirical content of theories in judgment and decision making: Shortcomings and remedies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Glockner

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available According to Karl Popper, we can tell good theories from poor ones by assessing their empirical content (empirischer Gehalt, which basically reflects how much information they convey concerning the world. ``The empirical content of a statement increases with its degree of falsifiability: the more a statement forbids, the more it says about the world of experience.'' Two criteria to evaluate the empirical content of a theory are their level of universality (Allgemeinheit and their degree of precision (Bestimmtheit. The former specifies how many situations it can be applied to. The latter refers to the specificity in prediction, that is, how many subclasses of realizations it allows. We conduct an analysis of the empirical content of theories in Judgment and Decision Making (JDM and identify the challenges in theory formulation for different classes of models. Elaborating on classic Popperian ideas, we suggest some guidelines for publication of theoretical work.

  15. The Effect of Conflict Theory Based Decision-Making Skill Training Psycho-Educational Group Experience on Decision Making Styles of Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colakkadioglu, Oguzhan; Gucray, S. Sonay

    2012-01-01

    In this study, the effect of conflict theory based decision making skill training group applications on decision making styles of adolescents was investigated. A total of 36 students, including 18 students in experimental group and 18 students in control group, participated in the research. When assigning students to experimental group or control…

  16. Decision and intuition during organizational change : an evolutionary critique of dual process theory

    OpenAIRE

    Talat, U; Chang, K; Nguyen, B

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to review intuition in the context of organizational change. We argue that intuition as a concept requires attention and its formulation is necessary prior to its application in organizations. The paper provides a critique of Dual Process Theory and highlights shortcomings in organization theorizing of intuition.\\ud Design/methodology/approach: The paper is conceptual and provides in-depth theoretical discussions by drawing from the literature on decision...

  17. In search of the "lost capital". A theory for valuation, investment decisions, performance measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Magni, Carlo Alberto

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical framework for valuation, investment decisions, and performance measurement based on a nonstandard theory of residual income. It is derived from the notion of "unrecovered" capital, which is here named "lost" capital because it represents the capital foregone by the investors. Its theoretical strength and meaningfulness is shown by deriving it from four main perspectives: financial, microeconomic, axiomatic, accounting. Implications for asset valuation, cap...

  18. The Influence of Emotion on Fairness-Related Decision Making: A Critical Review of Theories and Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Ya Zheng; Zhong Yang; Zhong Yang; Chunlan Jin; Yue Qi; Yue Qi; Xun Liu; Xun Liu

    2017-01-01

    Fairness-related decision making is an important issue in the field of decision making. Traditional theories emphasize the roles of inequity aversion and reciprocity, whereas recent research increasingly shows that emotion plays a critical role in this type of decision making. In this review, we summarize the influences of three types of emotions (i.e., the integral emotion experienced at the time of decision making, the incidental emotion aroused by a task-unrelated dispositional or situatio...

  19. An application of prospect theory to a SHM-based decision problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolognani, Denise; Verzobio, Andrea; Tonelli, Daniel; Cappello, Carlo; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele

    2017-04-01

    Decision making investigates choices that have uncertain consequences and that cannot be completely predicted. Rational behavior may be described by the so-called expected utility theory (EUT), whose aim is to help choosing among several solutions to maximize the expectation of the consequences. However, Kahneman and Tversky developed an alternative model, called prospect theory (PT), showing that the basic axioms of EUT are violated in several instances. In respect of EUT, PT takes into account irrational behaviors and heuristic biases. It suggests an alternative approach, in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights, which are strictly related to the decision maker's preferences and may change for different individuals. In particular, people underestimate the utility of uncertain scenarios compared to outcomes obtained with certainty, and show inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. The goal of this paper is precisely to analyze a real case study involving a decision problem regarding the Streicker Bridge, a pedestrian bridge on Princeton University campus. By modelling the manager of the bridge with the EUT first, and with PT later, we want to verify the differences between the two approaches and to investigate how the two models are sensitive to unpacking probabilities, which represent a common cognitive bias in irrational behaviors.

  20. A competitive interaction theory of attentional selection and decision making in brief, multielement displays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Philip L; Sewell, David K

    2013-07-01

    We generalize the integrated system model of Smith and Ratcliff (2009) to obtain a new theory of attentional selection in brief, multielement visual displays. The theory proposes that attentional selection occurs via competitive interactions among detectors that signal the presence of task-relevant features at particular display locations. The outcome of the competition, together with attention, determines which stimuli are selected into visual short-term memory (VSTM). Decisions about the contents of VSTM are made by a diffusion-process decision stage. The selection process is modeled by coupled systems of shunting equations, which perform gated where-on-what pathway VSTM selection. The theory provides a computational account of key findings from attention tasks with near-threshold stimuli. These are (a) the success of the MAX model of visual search and spatial cuing, (b) the distractor homogeneity effect, (c) the double-target detection deficit, (d) redundancy costs in the post-stimulus probe task, (e) the joint item and information capacity limits of VSTM, and (f) the object-based nature of attentional selection. We argue that these phenomena are all manifestations of an underlying competitive VSTM selection process, which arise as a natural consequence of our theory. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. A tri-reference point theory of decision making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X T; Johnson, Joseph G

    2012-11-01

    The tri-reference point (TRP) theory takes into account minimum requirements (MR), the status quo (SQ), and goals (G) in decision making under risk. The 3 reference points demarcate risky outcomes and risk perception into 4 functional regions: success (expected value of x ≥ G), gain (SQ G > SQ. We present TRP assumptions and value functions and a mathematical formalization of the theory. We conducted empirical tests of crucial TRP predictions using both explicit and implicit reference points. We show that decision makers consider both G and MR and give greater weight to MR than G, indicating failure aversion (i.e., the disutility of a failure is greater than the utility of a success in the same task) in addition to loss aversion (i.e., the disutility of a loss is greater than the utility of the same amount of gain). Captured by a double-S shaped value function with 3 inflection points, risk preferences switched between risk seeking and risk aversion when the distribution of a gamble straddled a different reference point. The existence of MR (not G) significantly shifted choice preference toward risk aversion even when the outcome distribution of a gamble was well above the MR. Single reference point based models such as prospect theory cannot consistently account for these findings. The TRP theory provides simple guidelines for evaluating risky choices for individuals and organizational management. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Analysing and exemplifying forensic conclusion criteria in terms of Bayesian decision theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biedermann, A; Bozza, S; Taroni, F

    2018-03-01

    There is ongoing discussion in forensic science and the law about the nature of the conclusions reached based on scientific evidence, and on how such conclusions - and conclusion criteria - may be justified by rational argument. Examples, among others, are encountered in fields such as fingermarks (e.g., 'this fingermark comes from Mr. A's left thumb'), handwriting examinations (e.g., 'the questioned signature is that of Mr. A'), kinship analyses (e.g., 'Mr. A is the father of child C') or anthropology (e.g., 'these are human remains'). Considerable developments using formal methods of reasoning based on, for example (Bayesian) decision theory, are available in literature, but currently such reference principles are not explicitly used in operational forensic reporting and ensuing decision-making. Moreover, applied examples, illustrating the principles, are scarce. A potential consequence of this in practical proceedings, and hence a cause of concern, is that underlying ingredients of decision criteria (such as losses quantifying the undesirability of adverse decision consequences), are not properly dealt with. There is merit, thus, in pursuing the study and discussion of practical examples, demonstrating that formal decision-theoretic principles are not merely conceptual considerations. Actually, these principles can be shown to underpin practical decision-making procedures and existing legal decision criteria, though often not explicitly apparent as such. In this paper, we will present such examples and discuss their properties from a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective. We will argue that these are essential concepts for an informed discourse on decision-making across forensic disciplines and the development of a coherent view on this topic. We will also emphasize that these principles are of normative nature in the sense that they provide standards against which actual judgment and decision-making may be compared. Most importantly, these standards are

  3. Theory-informed design of values clarification methods: a cognitive psychological perspective on patient health-related decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieterse, Arwen H; de Vries, Marieke; Kunneman, Marleen; Stiggelbout, Anne M; Feldman-Stewart, Deb

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare decisions, particularly those involving weighing benefits and harms that may significantly affect quality and/or length of life, should reflect patients' preferences. To support patients in making choices, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCM) in particular have been developed. VCM intend to help patients to determine the aspects of the choices that are important to their selection of a preferred option. Several types of VCM exist. However, they are often designed without clear reference to theory, which makes it difficult for their development to be systematic and internally coherent. Our goal was to provide theory-informed recommendations for the design of VCM. Process theories of decision making specify components of decision processes, thus, identify particular processes that VCM could aim to facilitate. We conducted a review of the MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases and of references to theories included in retrieved papers, to identify process theories of decision making. We selected a theory if (a) it fulfilled criteria for a process theory; (b) provided a coherent description of the whole process of decision making; and (c) empirical evidence supports at least some of its postulates. Four theories met our criteria: Image Theory, Differentiation and Consolidation theory, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction theory, and Fuzzy-trace Theory. Based on these, we propose that VCM should: help optimize mental representations; encourage considering all potentially appropriate options; delay selection of an initially favoured option; facilitate the retrieval of relevant values from memory; facilitate the comparison of options and their attributes; and offer time to decide. In conclusion, our theory-based design recommendations are explicit and transparent, providing an opportunity to test each in a systematic manner. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Blanking and piercing theory, applications and recent experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaid, A. I. O.

    2013-01-01

    Blanking and piercing are manufacturing processes by which certain geometrical shapes are sheared off a sheet metal. If the sheared off part is the one required, the processes referred to as blanking and if the remaining part in the sheet is the one required, the process is referred to as piercing. In this paper, the theory and practice of these processes are reviewed and discussed The main parameters affecting these processes are presented and discussed. These include: the radial clearance percentage, punch and die geometrical parameters, for example punch and die profile radii. The above mentioned parameters on the force and energy required to effect blanking together with their effect on the quality of the products are also presented and discussed. Recent experimental results together with photomacrographs and photomicrographs are also included and discussed. Finally, the effect of punch and die wear on the quality of the blanks is also given and discussed. (author)

  5. Blanking and piercing theory, applications and recent experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaid, Adnan l O

    2014-01-01

    Blanking and piercing are manufacturing processes by which certain geometrical shapes are sheared off a sheet metal. If the sheared off part is the one required, the processes referred to as blanking and if the remaining part in the sheet is the one required, the process is referred to as piercing. In this paper, the theory and practice of these processes are reviewed and discussed The main parameters affecting these processes are presented and discussed. These include: the radial clearance percentage, punch and die geometrical parameters, for example punch and die profile radii. The abovementioned parameters on the force and energy required to effect blanking together with their effect on the quality of the products are also presented and discussed. Recent experimental results together with photomacrographs and photomicrographs are also included and discussed. Finally, the effect of punch and die wear on the quality of the blanks is alsogiven and discussed

  6. Do personal stories make patient decision aids more effective? A critical review of theory and evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Patient decision aids support people to make informed decisions between healthcare options. Personal stories provide illustrative examples of others’ experiences and are seen as a useful way to communicate information about health and illness. Evidence indicates that providing information within personal stories affects the judgments and values people have, and the choices they make, differentially from facts presented in non-narrative prose. It is unclear if including narrative communications within patient decision aids enhances their effectiveness to support people to make informed decisions. Methods A survey of primary empirical research employing a systematic review method investigated the effect of patient decision aids with or without a personal story on people’s healthcare judgements and decisions. Searches were carried out between 2005-2012 of electronic databases (Medline, PsycINFO), and reference lists of identified articles, review articles, and key authors. A narrative analysis described and synthesised findings. Results Of 734 citations identified, 11 were included describing 13 studies. All studies found participants’ judgments and/or decisions differed depending on whether or not their decision aid included a patient story. Knowledge was equally facilitated when the decision aids with and without stories had similar information content. Story-enhanced aids may help people recall information over time and/or their motivation to engage with health information. Personal stories affected both “system 1” (e.g., less counterfactual reasoning, more emotional reactions and perceptions) and “system 2” (e.g., more perceived deliberative decision making, more stable evaluations over time) decision-making strategies. Findings exploring associations with narrative communications, decision quality measures, and different levels of literacy and numeracy were mixed. The pattern of findings was similar for both experimental and real

  7. Decision making process and factors contributing to research participation among general practitioners: A grounded theory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Seng Fah; Ng, Chirk Jenn; Lee, Verna Kar Mun; Lee, Ping Yein; Ismail, Irmi Zarina; Khoo, Ee Ming; Tahir, Noor Azizah; Idris, Iliza; Ismail, Mastura; Abdullah, Adina

    2018-01-01

    The participation of general practitioners (GPs) in primary care research is variable and often poor. We aimed to develop a substantive and empirical theoretical framework to explain GPs' decision-making process to participate in research. We used the grounded theory approach to construct a substantive theory to explain the decision-making process of GPs to participate in research activities. Five in-depth interviews and four focus group discussions were conducted among 21 GPs. Purposeful sampling followed by theoretical sampling were used to attempt saturation of the core category. Data were collected using semi-structured open-ended questions. Interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and checked prior to analysis. Open line-by-line coding followed by focus coding were used to arrive at a substantive theory. Memoing was used to help bring concepts to higher abstract levels. The GPs' decision to participate in research was attributed to their inner drive and appreciation for primary care research and their confidence in managing their social and research environments. The drive and appreciation for research motivated the GPs to undergo research training to enhance their research knowledge, skills and confidence. However, the critical step in the GPs' decision to participate in research was their ability to align their research agenda with priorities in their social environment, which included personal life goals, clinical practice and organisational culture. Perceived support for research, such as funding and technical expertise, facilitated the GPs' participation in research. In addition, prior experiences participating in research also influenced the GPs' confidence in taking part in future research. The key to GPs deciding to participate in research is whether the research agenda aligns with the priorities in their social environment. Therefore, research training is important, but should be included in further measures and should comply with GPs' social

  8. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, Jan Anne; Frenken, Koen|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/207145253; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression models

  9. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, J.A.; Frenken, Koen; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression

  10. Empirical validation of a real options theory based method for optimizing evacuation decisions within chemical plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reniers, G L L; Audenaert, A; Pauwels, N; Soudan, K

    2011-02-15

    This article empirically assesses and validates a methodology to make evacuation decisions in case of major fire accidents in chemical clusters. In this paper, a number of empirical results are presented, processed and discussed with respect to the implications and management of evacuation decisions in chemical companies. It has been shown in this article that in realistic industrial settings, suboptimal interventions may result in case the prospect to obtain additional information at later stages of the decision process is ignored. Empirical results also show that implications of interventions, as well as the required time and workforce to complete particular shutdown activities, may be very different from one company to another. Therefore, to be optimal from an economic viewpoint, it is essential that precautionary evacuation decisions are tailor-made per company. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Location Decisions of U.S. Polluting Plants. Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shadbegian, R.; Wolverton, A.

    2010-01-01

    Economists have long been interested in explaining the spatial distribution of economic activity, focusing on what factors motivate profit-maximizing firms when they choose to open a new plant or expand an existing facility. We begin our paper with a general discussion of the theory of plant location, including the role of taxes and agglomeration economies. However, our paper focuses on the theory, evidence, and implications of the role of environmental regulations in plant location decisions. On its face, environmental regulation would not necessarily be expected to alter location decisions, since we would expect Federal regulation to affect all locations in the United States essentially equally. It turns out, however, that this is not always the case as some geographic areas are subject to greater stringency. Another source of variation is differences across states in the way they implement and enforce compliance with Federal regulation. In light of these spatial differences in the costs of complying with environmental regulations, we discuss three main questions in this survey: Do environmental regulations affect the location decisions of polluting plants? Do states compete for polluting plants through differences in environmental regulation? And, do firms locate polluting plants disproportionately near poor and minority neighborhoods?.

  12. Location Decisions of U.S. Polluting Plants. Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shadbegian, R.; Wolverton, A.

    2010-06-15

    Economists have long been interested in explaining the spatial distribution of economic activity, focusing on what factors motivate profit-maximizing firms when they choose to open a new plant or expand an existing facility. We begin our paper with a general discussion of the theory of plant location, including the role of taxes and agglomeration economies. However, our paper focuses on the theory, evidence, and implications of the role of environmental regulations in plant location decisions. On its face, environmental regulation would not necessarily be expected to alter location decisions, since we would expect Federal regulation to affect all locations in the United States essentially equally. It turns out, however, that this is not always the case as some geographic areas are subject to greater stringency. Another source of variation is differences across states in the way they implement and enforce compliance with Federal regulation. In light of these spatial differences in the costs of complying with environmental regulations, we discuss three main questions in this survey: Do environmental regulations affect the location decisions of polluting plants? Do states compete for polluting plants through differences in environmental regulation? And, do firms locate polluting plants disproportionately near poor and minority neighborhoods?.

  13. Application of Bayesian Decision Theory Based on Prior Information in the Multi-Objective Optimization Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Lei

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available General multi-objective optimization methods are hard to obtain prior information, how to utilize prior information has been a challenge. This paper analyzes the characteristics of Bayesian decision-making based on maximum entropy principle and prior information, especially in case that how to effectively improve decision-making reliability in deficiency of reference samples. The paper exhibits effectiveness of the proposed method using the real application of multi-frequency offset estimation in distributed multiple-input multiple-output system. The simulation results demonstrate Bayesian decision-making based on prior information has better global searching capability when sampling data is deficient.

  14. Microfinance participation and contraceptive decision-making: results from a national sample of women in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murshid, N S; Ely, G E

    2016-10-01

    Our objective was to assess whether microfinance participation affords greater contraceptive decision-making power to women. Population based secondary data analysis. In this cross-sectional study using nationally representative data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2011 we conducted multinomial logistic regression to estimate the odds of contraceptive decision-making by respondents and their husbands based on microfinance participation. Microfinance participation was measured as a dichotomous variable and contraceptive decision-making was conceptualized based on who made decisions about contraceptive use: respondents only; their partners or husbands only; or both. The odds of decision-making by the respondent, with the reference case being joint decision-making, were higher for microfinance participants, but they were not significant. The odds of decision-making by the husband, with the reference case again being joint decision-making, were significantly lower among men who were partnered with women who participated in microfinance (RRR = 0.70, P participation by women allowed men to share decision-making power with their wives that resulted in higher odds of joint decision-making. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Metaphysical Modality, Modality of Predicate and the Theory of "Decisive Necessity”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Nabavi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aristotle in the Organon (1949: 9,30 a ,15-19 explicitly states that in a categorical syllogism when the minor premise is absolute (without modality operator and the major is necessary, the conclusion will be necessary too. This Aristotle's view has been the source of many conflicts and disputes in the history of logic. The famous logicians and historians of logic in the twentieth century as "Nicholas Rescher" and "Becker" believe that Aristotle's view is justifiable and defensible (at least compared to the first figure only if, the modality of major premise is considered as the property of predicate (modality de re. Today, we know very well that the modality of predicate is closely linked to Metaphysical and philosophical Modality. “Shihab al-Din al- Suhrawardi” in the theory of "Decisive (Battateh Necessity” by accepting this base, explicitly states that, in the beginning, the modality must be mentioned as a part of the predicate and then the modality of relation or copula is summarized and reduced to necessity. The modern formalization of the most important part of this theory is as follows: ("x (àAx É à Bx º ("x □ (àAx É à BxThis paper discusses the historical overview of the metaphysical modality firstly and then shows that the theory of "Decisive Necessity” is true and justified in a model of modal logic with equivalent accessibility relation and homogeneous possible world view (fixed domain.

  16. Liminality and decision making for upper limb surgery in tetraplegia: a grounded theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Jennifer A; Hay-Smith, E Jean C; Whitehead, Lisa C; Keeling, Sally

    2013-07-01

    To explore, from the perspective of the person with tetraplegia, the issues that influenced decision making about upper limb surgery and develop a conceptual framework describing the decision making process. Purposive and theoretical sampling of 22 people with tetraplegia, followed by interviews. Ten people had upper limb surgery and 12 had not. Verbatim transcripts were analyzed with constructivist grounded theory. Participants responded to the offer of surgery in one of three ways: yes, let me have it; no thanks; or possibly. Many influences on the decision about surgery had a temporal element, such as hope for the cure or recovery from SCI, inadequate physical or social supports while rehabilitating, life roles and goals, and the avoidance of re-hospitalization. The conceptual framework illustrated that many participants entered a liminal state within which they required a stimulus to review their decision about upper limb surgery. Decision making is a temporal process, and for some the process was a prolonged and liminal one. Therefore, multiple offers for surgery are required to allow for changing thoughts and circumstances throughout an individual's lifetime. Flexibility with regard to timing for surgery and type of rehabilitation may increase the uptake, especially for women. • Multiple offers for upper limb surgery are required throughout an individual's lifetime to account for changing thoughts and priorities. • Identification of the type of support required (informational, emotional) may assist in decreasing the time taken to make the decision about surgery. • Flexibility in surgical and rehabilitation options, especially for women, may increase the uptake of surgery.

  17. Top-Management Decision Making and Strategies : An Approach to a Theory of Leadership-Initiated Strategies(General Contribution)

    OpenAIRE

    藤田, 東久夫; Tokuo, FUJITA; 株式会社サトー; Sato Corporation

    2006-01-01

    The article clarifies the relationship between top-management decisions and strategies. Whereas prior theoretical treatments of top-management strategies are both logical and managerial, the author recognizes the ad hoc nature of top-management decisions, which rely upon intuition and inspiration, and proposes a theory of strategies that emerge through top-management leadership. This theory of leadership-initiated strategies sees a balance between leadership and management functions as essent...

  18. Generalized information theory: aims, results, and open problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klir, George J.

    2004-01-01

    The principal purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive overview of generalized information theory (GIT): a research program whose objective is to develop a broad treatment of uncertainty-based information, not restricted to classical notions of uncertainty. After a brief overview of classical information theories, a broad framework for formalizing uncertainty and the associated uncertainty-based information of a great spectrum of conceivable types is sketched. The various theories of imprecise probabilities that have already been developed within this framework are then surveyed, focusing primarily on some important unifying principles applying to all these theories. This is followed by introducing two higher levels of the theories of imprecise probabilities: (i) the level of measuring the amount of relevant uncertainty (predictive, retrodictive, prescriptive, diagnostic, etc.) in any situation formalizable in each given theory, and (ii) the level of some methodological principles of uncertainty, which are contingent upon the capability to measure uncertainty and the associated uncertainty-based information. Various issues regarding both the measurement of uncertainty and the uncertainty principles are discussed. Again, the focus is on unifying principles applicable to all the theories. Finally, the current status of GIT is assessed and future research in the area is discussed

  19. An entropic barriers diffusion theory of decision-making in multiple alternative tasks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Fernandez Slezak

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a theory of decision-making in the presence of multiple choices that departs from traditional approaches by explicitly incorporating entropic barriers in a stochastic search process. We analyze response time data from an on-line repository of 15 million blitz chess games, and show that our model fits not just the mean and variance, but the entire response time distribution (over several response-time orders of magnitude at every stage of the game. We apply the model to show that (a higher cognitive expertise corresponds to the exploration of more complex solution spaces, and (b reaction times of users at an on-line buying website can be similarly explained. Our model can be seen as a synergy between diffusion models used to model simple two-choice decision-making and planning agents in complex problem solving.

  20. Applying Bayesian decision theory to assess reprocessing economic and social cost-benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.

    1978-01-01

    Bayesian decision theory, combined with conventional systems analysis techniques into the discipline called decision analysis, has been applied in this work to assess economic and social cost-benefits associated with reprocessing nuclear fuel. Particular attention in this paper is given to the models which have been developed to place numerical estimates in dollar terms on the three categories of social risks that have been identified with reprocessing. These categories include: (1) health, environment, and safety, (2) diversion of fissile material, including sabotage, terrorist acts, and subnational diversion, and (3) nuclear proliferation, defined to be a diversion at the national level to obtain weapons capability. The emphasis is placed on the third category, as proliferation risk has not been treated elsewhere in a quantitative fashion; most arguments have in the main been qualitative conjectures put forth by political scientists

  1. Spiking Phineas Gage: a neurocomputational theory of cognitive-affective integration in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagar, Brandon M; Thagard, Paul

    2004-01-01

    The authors present a neurological theory of how cognitive information and emotional information are integrated in the nucleus accumbens during effective decision making. They describe how the nucleus accumbens acts as a gateway to integrate cognitive information from the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and the hippocampus with emotional information from the amygdala. The authors have modeled this integration by a network of spiking artificial neurons organized into separate areas and used this computational model to simulate 2 kinds of cognitive-affective integration. The model simulates successful performance by people with normal cognitive-affective integration. The model also simulates the historical case of Phineas Gage as well as subsequent patients whose ability to make decisions became impeded by damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex.

  2. 40 CFR 761.298 - Decisions based on PCB concentration measurements resulting from sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Decisions based on PCB concentration... Cleanup and On-Site Disposal of Bulk PCB Remediation Waste and Porous Surfaces in Accordance With § 761.61(a)(6) § 761.298 Decisions based on PCB concentration measurements resulting from sampling. (a) For...

  3. Haemodialysis patients and end-of-life decisions: a theory of personal preservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, Amy Olivier

    2004-06-01

    Lack of knowledge about the end-of-life treatment preferences of patients undergoing haemodialysis is problematic in the acute care setting as, often, patients are unable to communicate their treatment wishes effectively and have not previously documented their desires in the form of advance directives. Existing theoretical models offer an incomplete explanation of end-of-life treatment decisions in haemodialysis patients. This paper reports a study exploring decisions about end-of-life treatment (e.g. cardiopulmonary resuscitation, mechanical ventilation) in people with kidney failure undergoing haemodialysis. Grounded theory was used. Theoretical sampling led to selection of 20 haemodialysis patients (11 men and nine women with a mean age of 56) who attended three dialysis outpatient centres in central Texas. They were interviewed about end-of-life treatment plans and the use of advance directives (i.e. living wills and durable powers of attorney for health care). Interviews, transcripts and field notes from the first 12 patients were analysed by making constant comparisons. The remaining eight interviews were used for validation purposes. Data collection and analysis spanned the years 1997-2000. When prompted to think about and discuss end-of-life treatments, haemodialysis patients chose to focus on living rather than dying. A substantive theory of 'personal preservation' was developed. This consists of three phases: knowing the odds for survival, defining individuality (beating the odds, discovering meaning, being optimistic and having faith in a higher force) and personal preservation (being responsible and taking chances). The theory of personal preservation furthers understanding of illness behaviour and the process by which patients make decisions about end-of-life treatments. It can be used to sensitize health care professionals to patients' desires and to enhance patient-professional communication.

  4. How Different Insights from a Variety of Theories Might Help Ethical Decision-Making in Educational Counselling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tveit, Anne Dorthe; Sunde, Annikken Louise

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore how different insights from a variety of theories might help ethical decision making in educational counselling and highlight the need for reflection. A framework for ethical decision making based on basic features of counselling, namely the interlocutors' practice or "acts", is proposed. There are…

  5. An Extension of the Theory of Reasoned Action in Ethical Decision Contexts: The Role of Normative Influence and Ethical Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celuch, Kevin; Dill, Andy

    2011-01-01

    The moral conduct of organizations is ultimately dependent on the discrete actions of individuals. The authors address the scholarly and managerial imperative of how individuals combine various cognitions in their ethical decision making. The study extends the understanding of ethical decision making by exploring relationships among Theory of…

  6. [Influenza A from the rational choice theory: proposals for decision making in prevention policies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña, Francisco Garrido; Fernández, Luís Andrés López; García, Eugenia Gil

    2009-01-01

    This article is a reflection on the social uncertainty caused by Influenza A and on the consequences that it can have on decision making in health promotion policies. We use concepts and metaphors of the Rational Choice Theory, among them, the "in gratitude effect" or the "distrust effect", as we analyse how these can become obstacles for the efficiency of prevention policies. Then, we focus on the information asymmetry of the principal-agent relationship, and we propose measures to diminish the "moral risk" that they cause. We finish by advancing some proposals for designing lines and strategies of action in health promotion policies.

  7. The Bayesian statistical decision theory applied to the optimization of generating set maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Muller, S.

    1994-11-01

    The difficulty in RCM methodology is the allocation of a new periodicity of preventive maintenance on one equipment when a critical failure has been identified: until now this new allocation has been based on the engineer's judgment, and one must wait for a full cycle of feedback experience before to validate it. Statistical decision theory could be a more rational alternative for the optimization of preventive maintenance periodicity. This methodology has been applied to inspection and maintenance optimization of cylinders of diesel generator engines of 900 MW nuclear plants, and has shown that previous preventive maintenance periodicity can be extended. (authors). 8 refs., 5 figs

  8. A Death Awareness Workshop: Theory, Application, and Results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whelan, W. Michael; Warren, William M.

    1980-01-01

    Describes an experimental death awareness workshop based on Kubler-Ross' theory. The effects of the workshop reveal cognitive and emotional changes indicating participants in the workshop to be moving towards an acceptance of death. (Author)

  9. Decision theory on the quality evaluation of medical images; A teoria da decisao na avaliacao da qualidade da imagem medica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lessa, Patricia Silva

    2001-10-01

    The problem of quality has been a constant issue in every organization.One is always seeking to produce more, to do it at a lower cost, and to do it with better quality. However, in this country, there is no radiographic film quality control system for radiographic services. The tittle that actually gets done is essentially ad hoc and superficial. The implications of this gap, along with some other shortcomings that exist in process as a whole (the state of the x-ray equipment, the adequate to use in order to obtain a radiography, the quality of the film, the processing of the film, the brightness and homogeneity of the viewing boxes, the ability of the radiologist), have a very negative impact on the quality of the medical image, and, as result, to the quality of the medical diagnosis and therapy. It frequently happens that many radiographs have to be repeated, which leads to an increase of the patient's exposure to radiation, as well as of the cost of the procedure for the patient. Low quality radiographs that are not repeated greatly increase the probability of a wrong diagnosis, and consequently, of inadequate therapeutical procedures, thus producing increased incidence of bad outcomes and higher costs. The paradigm proposed in order to establish a system for the measurement of the image's quality is Decision Theory. The problem of the assessment of the image is studied by proposing a Decision Theory approach. The review of the literature reveals a great concern with the quality of the image, along with an absence of an adequate paradigm and several essentially empirical procedures. Image parameters are developed in order to formalize the problem in terms of Decision Theory, and various aspects of image digitalisation are exposed. Finally, a solution is presented, including a protocol for quality control. (author)

  10. Bureaucrats Versus the Ballot Box in Foreign Policy Decision Making: An Experimental Analysis of the Bureaucratic Politics Model and the Poliheuristic Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Eben J.; Redd, Steven B.

    2004-01-01

    The bureaucratic politics model and the poliheuristic theory are used to examine how political advice presented in various contexts influences choice. Organizational advisers who offer endogenous political advice are compared with situations in which the decision maker is offered advice by a separate, or exogenous, political adviser. Results show…

  11. Testing Ecological Theories of Offender Spatial Decision Making Using a Discrete Choice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Lucia

    2015-01-01

    Research demonstrates that crime is spatially concentrated. However, most research relies on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. This study examines how the characteristics of neighborhoods and their proximity to offender home locations affect offender spatial decision making. Using a discrete choice model and data for detected incidents of theft from vehicles (TFV), we test predictions from two theoretical perspectives—crime pattern and social disorganization theories. We demonstrate that offenders favor areas that are low in social cohesion and closer to their home, or other age-related activity nodes. For adult offenders, choices also appear to be influenced by how accessible a neighborhood is via the street network. The implications for criminological theory and crime prevention are discussed. PMID:25866412

  12. An Energy-Efficient Game-Theory-Based Spectrum Decision Scheme for Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salim, Shelly; Moh, Sangman

    2016-06-30

    A cognitive radio sensor network (CRSN) is a wireless sensor network in which sensor nodes are equipped with cognitive radio. In this paper, we propose an energy-efficient game-theory-based spectrum decision (EGSD) scheme for CRSNs to prolong the network lifetime. Note that energy efficiency is the most important design consideration in CRSNs because it determines the network lifetime. The central part of the EGSD scheme consists of two spectrum selection algorithms: random selection and game-theory-based selection. The EGSD scheme also includes a clustering algorithm, spectrum characterization with a Markov chain, and cluster member coordination. Our performance study shows that EGSD outperforms the existing popular framework in terms of network lifetime and coordination overhead.

  13. An Energy-Efficient Game-Theory-Based Spectrum Decision Scheme for Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelly Salim

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A cognitive radio sensor network (CRSN is a wireless sensor network in which sensor nodes are equipped with cognitive radio. In this paper, we propose an energy-efficient game-theory-based spectrum decision (EGSD scheme for CRSNs to prolong the network lifetime. Note that energy efficiency is the most important design consideration in CRSNs because it determines the network lifetime. The central part of the EGSD scheme consists of two spectrum selection algorithms: random selection and game-theory-based selection. The EGSD scheme also includes a clustering algorithm, spectrum characterization with a Markov chain, and cluster member coordination. Our performance study shows that EGSD outperforms the existing popular framework in terms of network lifetime and coordination overhead.

  14. Management of redundancy in flight control systems using optimal decision theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    The problem of using redundancy that exists between dissimilar systems in aircraft flight control is addressed. That is, using the redundancy that exists between a rate gyro and an accelerometer--devices that have dissimilar outputs which are related only through the dynamics of the aircraft motion. Management of this type of redundancy requires advanced logic so that the system can monitor failure status and can reconfigure itself in the event of one or more failures. An optimal decision theory was tutorially developed for the management of sensor redundancy and the theory is applied to two aircraft examples. The first example is the space shuttle and the second is a highly maneuvering high performance aircraft--the F8-C. The examples illustrate the redundancy management design process and the performance of the algorithms presented in failure detection and control law reconfiguration.

  15. Testing Ecological Theories of Offender Spatial Decision Making Using a Discrete Choice Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Shane D; Summers, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    Research demonstrates that crime is spatially concentrated. However, most research relies on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. This study examines how the characteristics of neighborhoods and their proximity to offender home locations affect offender spatial decision making. Using a discrete choice model and data for detected incidents of theft from vehicles (TFV) , we test predictions from two theoretical perspectives-crime pattern and social disorganization theories. We demonstrate that offenders favor areas that are low in social cohesion and closer to their home, or other age-related activity nodes. For adult offenders, choices also appear to be influenced by how accessible a neighborhood is via the street network. The implications for criminological theory and crime prevention are discussed.

  16. Modeling OPEC behavior: theories of risk aversion for oil producer decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    1999-01-01

    Theories of OPEC such as price leadership, cartel, or game theoretic models suggest an incentive for OPEC members to expand their production capacity well above current levels in order to maximize revenues. Yet individual OPEC members consistently explore for and develop oil fields at a level well below their potential. The cause of low oil exploration and development efforts among OPEC members, and even some non-OPEC members, may have to do with risk aversion. This paper describes an alternative theory for OPEC behavior based on risk aversion using a two piece non-Neumann-Morgenstern utility function similar to Fishburn and Koehenberger (1979, Decision Science 10, 503-518), and Friedman and Savage (1948, Journal of political Economy 56). The model shows possible low oil production behavior. (author)

  17. Delaying investments in sensor technology: The rationality of dairy farmers' investment decisions illustrated within the framework of real options theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutten, C J; Steeneveld, W; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Hogeveen, H

    2018-05-02

    The adoption rate of sensors on dairy farms varies widely. Whereas some sensors are hardly adopted, others are adopted by many farmers. A potential rational explanation for the difference in adoption may be the expected future technological progress in the sensor technology and expected future improved decision support possibilities. For some sensors not much progress can be expected because the technology has already made enormous progress in recent years, whereas for sensors that have only recently been introduced on the market, much progress can be expected. The adoption of sensors may thus be partly explained by uncertainty about the investment decision, in which uncertainty lays in the future performance of the sensors and uncertainty about whether improved informed decision support will become available. The overall aim was to offer a plausible example of why a sensor may not be adopted now. To explain this, the role of uncertainty about technological progress in the investment decision was illustrated for highly adopted sensors (automated estrus detection) and hardly adopted sensors (automated body condition score). This theoretical illustration uses the real options theory, which accounts for the role of uncertainty in the timing of investment decisions. A discrete event model, simulating a farm of 100 dairy cows, was developed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of investing now and investing in 5 yr in both sensor systems. The results show that investing now in automated estrus detection resulted in a higher NPV than investing 5 yr from now, whereas for the automated body condition score postponing the investment resulted in a higher NPV compared with investing now. These results are in line with the observation that farmers postpone investments in sensors. Also, the current high adoption of automated estrus detection sensors can be explained because the NPV of investing now is higher than the NPV of investing in 5 yr. The results confirm that

  18. Barriers and decisions when answering clinical questions at the point of care: a grounded theory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, David A; Sorensen, Kristi J; Wilkinson, John M; Berger, Richard A

    2013-11-25

    Answering clinical questions affects patient-care decisions and is important to continuous professional development. The process of point-of-care learning is incompletely understood. To understand what barriers and enabling factors influence physician point-of-care learning and what decisions physicians face during this process. Focus groups with grounded theory analysis. Focus group discussions were transcribed and then analyzed using a constant comparative approach to identify barriers, enabling factors, and key decisions related to physician information-seeking activities. Academic medical center and outlying community sites. Purposive sample of 50 primary care and subspecialist internal medicine and family medicine physicians, interviewed in 11 focus groups. Insufficient time was the main barrier to point-of-care learning. Other barriers included the patient comorbidities and contexts, the volume of available information, not knowing which resource to search, doubt that the search would yield an answer, difficulty remembering questions for later study, and inconvenient access to computers. Key decisions were whether to search (reasons to search included infrequently seen conditions, practice updates, complex questions, and patient education), when to search (before, during, or after the clinical encounter), where to search (with the patient present or in a separate room), what type of resource to use (colleague or computer), what specific resource to use (influenced first by efficiency and second by credibility), and when to stop. Participants noted that key features of efficiency (completeness, brevity, and searchability) are often in conflict. Physicians perceive that insufficient time is the greatest barrier to point-of-care learning, and efficiency is the most important determinant in selecting an information source. Designing knowledge resources and systems to target key decisions may improve learning and patient care.

  19. Using fuzzy-trace theory to understand and improve health judgments, decisions, and behaviors: A literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blalock, Susan J; Reyna, Valerie F

    2016-08-01

    Fuzzy-trace theory is a dual-process model of memory, reasoning, judgment, and decision making that contrasts with traditional expectancy-value approaches. We review the literature applying fuzzy-trace theory to health with 3 aims: evaluating whether the theory's basic distinctions have been validated empirically in the domain of health; determining whether these distinctions are useful in assessing, explaining, and predicting health-related psychological processes; and determining whether the theory can be used to improve health judgments, decisions, or behaviors, especially compared to other approaches. We conducted a literature review using PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science to identify empirical peer-reviewed papers that applied fuzzy-trace theory, or central constructs of the theory, to investigate health judgments, decisions, or behaviors. Seventy nine studies (updated total is 94 studies; see Supplemental materials) were identified, over half published since 2012, spanning a wide variety of conditions and populations. Study findings supported the prediction that verbatim and gist representations are distinct constructs that can be retrieved independently using different cues. Although gist-based reasoning was usually associated with improved judgment and decision making, 4 sources of bias that can impair gist reasoning were identified. Finally, promising findings were reported from intervention studies that used fuzzy-trace theory to improve decision making and decrease unhealthy risk taking. Despite large gaps in the literature, most studies supported all 3 aims. By focusing on basic psychological processes that underlie judgment and decision making, fuzzy-trace theory provides insights into how individuals make decisions involving health risks and suggests innovative intervention approaches to improve health outcomes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. What practice can learn from theory: The potential impact of disposition decision factors on organisational performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Badenhorst

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Effective disposition decisions can lead to a number of value-adding benefits including economic, environmental and marketing benefits. Despite this, many organisations are not aware of the importance of disposition decisions and the impact they can have on organisational performance. Objectives: The aim of this study was to demonstrate the potential impact of disposition decision factors on organisational performance. Method: This study made use of a qualitative content analysis method on previously published scientific articles on reverse logistics. The sample included 67 published scientific articles between 2006 and 2016. ATLAS.ti software was used to assist with the data analysis process. Findings: The findings showed a number of factors for disposition decision-making resulting in a number of value-adding benefits, which can improve organisational performance. From the findings, a conceptual framework was developed linking the disposition decision factors with the value-adding benefits and areas of organisational performance improvements. Conclusion: The framework developed in this article contributes to new insights and can help organisations to identify different performance improvement areas associated with certain disposition decision factors.

  1. Theories of truth as assessment criteria in judgment and decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip T. Dunwoody

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Hammond (1996 argued that much of the research in the field of judgment and decision making (JDM can be categorized as focused on either coherence or correspondence (CandC and that, in order to understand the findings of the field, one needs to understand the differences between these two criteria. extit{Hammond's claim} is that conclusions about the competence of judgments and decisions will depend upon the selection of coherence or correspondence as the criterion (Hammond, 2008. First, I provide an overview of the terms coherence and correspondence (CandC as philosophical theories of truth and relate them to the field of JDM. Second, I provide an example of Hammond's claim by examining literature on base rate neglect. Third, I examine Hammond's claim as it applies to the broader field of JDM. Fourth, I critique Hammond's claim and suggest that refinements to the CandC distinction are needed. Specifically, the CandC distinction 1 is more accurately applied to criteria than to researchers, 2 should be refined to include two important types of coherence (inter and intrapersonal coherence and 3 neglects the third philosophical theory of truth, pragmatism. Pragmatism, as a class of criteria in JDM, is defined as goal attainment. In order to provide the most complete assessment of human judgment possible, and understand different findings in the field of JDM, all three criteria should be considered.

  2. How Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making are Colored by Gist-based Intuition: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbin, Jonathan C; Reyna, Valerie F; Weldon, Rebecca B; Brainerd, Charles J

    2015-12-01

    Fuzzy-trace theory distinguishes verbatim (literal, exact) from gist (meaningful) representations, predicting that reliance on gist increases with experience and expertise. Thus, many judgment-and-decision-making biases increase with development, such that cognition is colored by context in ways that violate logical coherence and probability theories. Nevertheless, this increase in gist-based intuition is adaptive: Gist is stable, less sensitive to interference, and easier to manipulate. Moreover, gist captures the functionally significant essence of information, supporting healthier and more robust decision processes. We describe how fuzzy-trace theory accounts for judgment-and-decision making phenomena, predicting the paradoxical arc of these processes with the development of experience and expertise. We present data linking gist memory processes to gist processing in decision making and provide illustrations of gist reliance in medicine, public health, and intelligence analysis.

  3. Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Theory, Practice, and Public Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Farley, Frank

    2006-09-01

    conditions), adolescents are capable of rational decision making to achieve their goals. In practice, much depends on the particular situation in which a decision is made. In the heat of passion, in the presence of peers, on the spur of the moment, in unfamiliar situations, when trading off risks and benefits favors bad long-term outcomes, and when behavioral inhibition is required for good outcomes, adolescents are likely to reason more poorly than adults do. Brain maturation in adolescence is incomplete. Impulsivity, sensation seeking, thrill seeking, depression, and other individual differences also contribute to risk taking that resists standard risk-reduction interventions, although some conditions such as depression can be effectively treated with other approaches. Major explanatory models of risky decision making can be roughly divided into (a) those, including health-belief models and the theory of planned behavior, that adhere to a "rational" behavioral decision-making framework that stresses deliberate, quantitative trading off of risks and benefits; and (b) those that emphasize nondeliberative reaction to the perceived gists or prototypes in the immediate decision environment. (A gist is a fuzzy mental representation of the general meaning of information or experience; a prototype is a mental representation of a standard or typical example of a category.) Although perceived risks and especially benefits predict behavioral intentions and risk-taking behavior, behavioral willingness is an even better predictor of susceptibility to risk taking-and has unique explanatory power-because adolescents are willing to do riskier things than they either intend or expect to do. Dual-process models, such as the prototype/willingness model and fuzzy-trace theory, identify two divergent paths to risk taking: a reasoned and a reactive route. Such models explain apparent contradictions in the literature, including different causes of risk taking for different individuals

  4. Moral imagination: Facilitating prosocial decision-making through scene imagery and theory of mind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaesser, Brendan; Keeler, Kerri; Young, Liane

    2018-02-01

    How we imagine and subjectively experience the future can inform how we make decisions in the present. Here, we examined a prosocial effect of imagining future episodes in motivating moral decisions about helping others in need, as well as the underlying cognitive mechanisms. Across three experiments we found that people are more willing to help others in specific situations after imagining helping them in those situations. Manipulating the spatial representation of imagined future episodes in particular was effective at increasing intentions to help others, suggesting that scene imagery plays an important role in the prosocial effect of episodic simulation. Path modeling analyses revealed that episodic simulation interacts with theory of mind in facilitating prosocial responses but can also operate independently. Moreover, we found that our manipulations of the imagined helping episode increased actual prosocial behavior, which also correlated with changes in reported willingness to help. Based on these findings, we propose a new model that begins to capture the multifaceted mechanisms by which episodic simulation contributes to prosocial decision-making, highlighting boundaries and promising future directions to explore. Implications for research in moral cognition, imagination, and patients with impairments in episodic simulation are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Changing delay discounting in the light of the competing neurobehavioral decision systems theory: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Jarmolowicz, David P; Mueller, E Terry; Bickel, Warren K

    2013-01-01

    Excessively devaluing delayed reinforcers co-occurs with a wide variety of clinical conditions such as drug dependence, obesity, and excessive gambling. If excessive delay discounting is a trans-disease process that underlies the choice behavior leading to these and other negative health conditions, efforts to change an individual's discount rate are arguably important. Although discount rate is often regarded as a relatively stable trait, descriptions of interventions and environmental manipulations that successfully alter discount rate have begun to appear in the literature. In this review, we compare published examples of procedures that change discount rate and classify them into categories of procedures, including therapeutic interventions, direct manipulation of the executive decision-making system, framing effects, physiological state effects, and acute drug effects. These changes in discount rate are interpreted from the perspective of the competing neurobehavioral decision systems theory, which describes a combination of neurological and behavioral processes that account for delay discounting. We also suggest future directions that researchers could take to identify the mechanistic processes that allow for changes in discount rate and to test whether the competing neurobehavioral decision systems view of delay discounting is correct. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  6. Impossibility results for the equational theory of timed CCS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aceto, L.; Ingólfsdóttir, A.; Mousavi, M.; Mossakowski, T.; Montanari, U.; Haveraaen, M.

    2007-01-01

    We study the equational theory of Timed CCS as proposed by Wang Yi in CONCUR’90. Common to Wang Yi’s paper, we particularly focus on a class of linearly-ordered time domains exemplified by the positive real or rational numbers. We show that, even when the set of basic actions is a singleton, there

  7. A meta-ethnography and theory of parental ethical decision making in the neonatal intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, Sara A; Nolan, Marie T

    2013-07-01

    To synthesize the existing qualitative literature about parent ethical decision making in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and to investigate the potential impact of culture on parents' decision making experiences. PubMed, CINAHL plus, and PsychInfo using the search terms parental decision making, culture, race, decision making, and parental decisions. Qualitative research studies investigating decision making for infants in the NICU from the parents' perspective were included. Studies involving older pediatric populations were excluded. Ten primary qualitative research articles were included. The primary author read all manuscripts and tabulated themes related to parents' ethical decision making. Study findings were synthesized using meta-ethnography involving translating concepts of separate studies into one another, exploring contradictions, and organizing these concepts into new theories. Key themes included parent involvement in decision making, parental role, necessity of good information, need for communication, desire for hope and compassion conveyed by providers, decision making satisfaction, and trust in caregiving team. A preliminary theoretical framework of ethical parent decision making was modeled based on the proposed relationships between the themes. Parent preferences for their involvement in decision making, their perceptions of communication with providers, and their relationships with providers are all important factors in the experience of making decisions for their infants. Needs of parents were the same regardless the ethnic or racial diversity of study participants. © 2013 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses.

  8. Updating Optimal Decisions Using Game Theory and Exploring Risk Behavior Through Response Surface Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jordan, Jeremy D

    2007-01-01

    ... with. The techniques are applied to a combat scenario, a football game, and a terrorist resource allocation problem, providing a decision maker with the best possible strategy given the information available to him. The results are intuitive and exemplify the benefits of using the methods.

  9. The Influence of Emotion on Fairness-Related Decision Making: A Critical Review of Theories and Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya Zheng

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Fairness-related decision making is an important issue in the field of decision making. Traditional theories emphasize the roles of inequity aversion and reciprocity, whereas recent research increasingly shows that emotion plays a critical role in this type of decision making. In this review, we summarize the influences of three types of emotions (i.e., the integral emotion experienced at the time of decision making, the incidental emotion aroused by a task-unrelated dispositional or situational source, and the interaction of emotion and cognition on fairness-related decision making. Specifically, we first introduce three dominant theories that describe how emotion may influence fairness-related decision making (i.e., the wounded pride/spite model, affect infusion model, and dual-process model. Next, we collect behavioral and neural evidence for and against these theories. Finally, we propose that future research on fairness-related decision making should focus on inducing incidental social emotion, avoiding irrelevant emotion when regulating, exploring the individual differences in emotional dispositions, and strengthening the ecological validity of the paradigm.

  10. Application of decision-making theory to the regulation of muscular work rate during self-paced competitive endurance activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renfree, Andrew; Martin, Louise; Micklewright, Dominic; St Clair Gibson, Alan

    2014-02-01

    Successful participation in competitive endurance activities requires continual regulation of muscular work rate in order to maximise physiological performance capacities, meaning that individuals must make numerous decisions with regards to the muscular work rate selected at any point in time. Decisions relating to the setting of appropriate goals and the overall strategic approach to be utilised are made prior to the commencement of an event, whereas tactical decisions are made during the event itself. This review examines current theories of decision-making in an attempt to explain the manner in which regulation of muscular work is achieved during athletic activity. We describe rational and heuristic theories, and relate these to current models of regulatory processes during self-paced exercise in an attempt to explain observations made in both laboratory and competitive environments. Additionally, we use rational and heuristic theories in an attempt to explain the influence of the presence of direct competitors on the quality of the decisions made during these activities. We hypothesise that although both rational and heuristic models can plausibly explain many observed behaviours in competitive endurance activities, the complexity of the environment in which such activities occur would imply that effective rational decision-making is unlikely. However, at present, many proposed models of the regulatory process share similarities with rational models. We suggest enhanced understanding of the decision-making process during self-paced activities is crucial in order to improve the ability to understand regulation of performance and performance outcomes during athletic activity.

  11. The Influence of Emotion on Fairness-Related Decision Making: A Critical Review of Theories and Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Ya; Yang, Zhong; Jin, Chunlan; Qi, Yue; Liu, Xun

    2017-01-01

    Fairness-related decision making is an important issue in the field of decision making. Traditional theories emphasize the roles of inequity aversion and reciprocity, whereas recent research increasingly shows that emotion plays a critical role in this type of decision making. In this review, we summarize the influences of three types of emotions (i.e., the integral emotion experienced at the time of decision making, the incidental emotion aroused by a task-unrelated dispositional or situational source, and the interaction of emotion and cognition) on fairness-related decision making. Specifically, we first introduce three dominant theories that describe how emotion may influence fairness-related decision making (i.e., the wounded pride/spite model, affect infusion model, and dual-process model). Next, we collect behavioral and neural evidence for and against these theories. Finally, we propose that future research on fairness-related decision making should focus on inducing incidental social emotion, avoiding irrelevant emotion when regulating, exploring the individual differences in emotional dispositions, and strengthening the ecological validity of the paradigm. PMID:28974937

  12. The Influence of Emotion on Fairness-Related Decision Making: A Critical Review of Theories and Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Ya; Yang, Zhong; Jin, Chunlan; Qi, Yue; Liu, Xun

    2017-01-01

    Fairness-related decision making is an important issue in the field of decision making. Traditional theories emphasize the roles of inequity aversion and reciprocity, whereas recent research increasingly shows that emotion plays a critical role in this type of decision making. In this review, we summarize the influences of three types of emotions (i.e., the integral emotion experienced at the time of decision making, the incidental emotion aroused by a task-unrelated dispositional or situational source, and the interaction of emotion and cognition) on fairness-related decision making. Specifically, we first introduce three dominant theories that describe how emotion may influence fairness-related decision making (i.e., the wounded pride/spite model, affect infusion model, and dual-process model). Next, we collect behavioral and neural evidence for and against these theories. Finally, we propose that future research on fairness-related decision making should focus on inducing incidental social emotion, avoiding irrelevant emotion when regulating, exploring the individual differences in emotional dispositions, and strengthening the ecological validity of the paradigm.

  13. A model for hot electron phenomena: Theory and general results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, J.L.; Rodriquez, M.A.

    1988-10-01

    We propose a model for the description of the hot electron phenomena in semiconductors. Based on this model we are able to reproduce accurately the main characteristics observed in experiments of electric field transport, optical absorption, steady state photoluminescence and relaxation process. Our theory does not contain free nor adjustable parameters, it is very fast computerwise, and incorporates the main collision mechanisms including screening and phonon heating effects. Our description on a set of nonlinear rate equations in which the interactions are represented by coupling coefficients or effective frequencies. We calculate three coefficients from the characteristic constants and the band structure of the material. (author). 22 refs, 5 figs, 1 tab

  14. Predicting mothers' decisions to introduce complementary feeding at 6 months. An investigation using an extended theory of planned behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Kyra; Daniels, Lynne; White, Katherine M; Murray, Nicole; Walsh, Anne

    2011-06-01

    In Australia and other developed countries there is poor adherence to guidelines recommending the introduction of complementary feeding to infants at 6 months of age. We aimed to investigate, via adopting a theory of planned behaviour framework and incorporating additional normative and demographic influences, mothers' complementary feeding intentions and behaviour. Participants were 375 primiparas who completed an initial questionnaire (infant age 13±3 weeks) that assessed the theory of planned behaviour constructs of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control, as well as group norm and additional maternal and infant variables of mothers' age, education level, weight status perception, current maternal feeding practices, and infant birth weight. Approximately, 3 months after completion of the main questionnaire, mothers completed a follow-up questionnaire that assessed the age in months at which the infant was first introduced to solids. The theory of planned behaviour variables of attitude and subjective norm, along with group norm, predicted intentions, with intention, mothers' age (older more likely), and weight status perception (overweight less likely) predicting behaviour. Overall, the results highlight the importance of attitudes, normative influences, and individual characteristics in complementary feeding decision-making which should be considered when designing interventions aimed at improving adherence to current maternal feeding guidelines. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Electricity procurement for large consumers based on Information Gap Decision Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zare, Kazem; Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa; Sheikh El Eslami, Mohammad Kazem [Tarbiat Modares University, P.O. Box 14115-111, Tehran (Iran)

    2010-01-15

    In the competitive electricity market, consumers seek strategies to meet their electricity needs at minimum cost and risk. This paper provides a technique based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to assess different procurement strategies for large consumers. Supply sources include bilateral contracts, a limited self-generating facility, and the pool. It is considered that the pool price is uncertain and its volatility around the estimated value is modeled using an IGDT model. The proposed method does not minimize the procurement cost but assesses the risk aversion or risk-taking nature of some procurement strategies with regard to the minimum cost. Using this method, the robustness of experiencing costs higher than the expected one is optimized and the related strategy is determined. The proposed method deals with optimizing the opportunities to take advantage of low procurement costs or low pool prices. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed technique. (author)

  16. Electricity procurement for large consumers based on Information Gap Decision Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zare, Kazem; Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa; Sheikh El Eslami, Mohammad Kazem

    2010-01-01

    In the competitive electricity market, consumers seek strategies to meet their electricity needs at minimum cost and risk. This paper provides a technique based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to assess different procurement strategies for large consumers. Supply sources include bilateral contracts, a limited self-generating facility, and the pool. It is considered that the pool price is uncertain and its volatility around the estimated value is modeled using an IGDT model. The proposed method does not minimize the procurement cost but assesses the risk aversion or risk-taking nature of some procurement strategies with regard to the minimum cost. Using this method, the robustness of experiencing costs higher than the expected one is optimized and the related strategy is determined. The proposed method deals with optimizing the opportunities to take advantage of low procurement costs or low pool prices. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed technique.

  17. MANAGERIAL DECISION IN INNOVATIVE EDUCATION SYSTEMS STATISTICAL SURVEY BASED ON SAMPLE THEORY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe SĂVOIU

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Before formulating the statistical hypotheses and the econometrictesting itself, a breakdown of some of the technical issues is required, which are related to managerial decision in innovative educational systems, the educational managerial phenomenon tested through statistical and mathematical methods, respectively the significant difference in perceiving the current qualities, knowledge, experience, behaviour and desirable health, obtained through a questionnaire applied to a stratified population at the end,in the educational environment, either with educational activities, or with simultaneously managerial and educational activities. The details having to do with research focused on the survey theory, turning into a working tool the questionnaires and statistical data that are processed from those questionnaires, are summarized below.

  18. A review of recent results on spread F theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ossakow, S.L.

    1979-01-01

    Ionospheric Spread F was discovered some four decades ago. Yet only in the past few years has significant progress been made in the theoretical explanation of such phenomena. In particular, considerable effort has been expended to explain equatorial Spread F and the attendant satellite signal propagation scintillation phenomena. The present review dwells mainly in this low latitude area. The various linear plasma instabilities thought to initiate equatorial Spread F are discussed. Recent theoretical and numerical simulation studies of the nonlinear evolution of the collisional Rayleigh-Taylor instability in equatorial Spread F are reviewed. Also, analytical studies of rising equatorial Spread F bubbles in the collisional and collisionless Rayleigh-Taylor regime are discussed, as well as the nohlinear saturation of instabilities in these two regimes. Current theories on very small scale (< approx 10 meters) size irregularities observed by radar backscatter during equatorial Spread F and their relation to the larger wavelength scintillation causing irregularities are discussed. Application of turbulence theory to equatorial Spread F phenomena is reviewed. Remaining problems to be dealt with at equatorial latitudes are summarized. (Auth.)

  19. Some rigorous results concerning spectral theory for ideal MHD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurence, P.

    1986-01-01

    Spectral theory for linear ideal MHD is laid on a firm foundation by defining appropriate function spaces for the operators associated with both the first- and second-order (in time and space) partial differential operators. Thus, it is rigorously established that a self-adjoint extension of F(xi) exists. It is shown that the operator L associated with the first-order formulation satisfies the conditions of the Hille--Yosida theorem. A foundation is laid thereby within which the domains associated with the first- and second-order formulations can be compared. This allows future work in a rigorous setting that will clarify the differences (in the two formulations) between the structure of the generalized eigenspaces corresponding to the marginal point of the spectrum ω = 0

  20. Some rigorous results concerning spectral theory for ideal MHD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurence, P.

    1985-05-01

    Spectral theory for linear ideal MHD is laid on a firm foundation by defining appropriate function spaces for the operators associated with both the first and second order (in time and space) partial differential operators. Thus, it is rigorously established that a self-adjoint extension of F(xi) exists. It is shown that the operator L associated with the first order formulation satisfies the conditions of the Hille-Yosida theorem. A foundation is laid thereby within which the domains associated with the first and second order formulations can be compared. This allows future work in a rigorous setting that will clarify the differences (in the two formulations) between the structure of the generalized eigenspaces corresponding to the marginal point of the spectrum ω = 0

  1. Decision theory, motor planning, and visual memory: deciding where to reach when memory errors are costly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerch, Rachel A; Sims, Chris R

    2016-06-01

    Limitations in visual working memory (VWM) have been extensively studied in psychophysical tasks, but not well understood in terms of how these memory limits translate to performance in more natural domains. For example, in reaching to grasp an object based on a spatial memory representation, overshooting the intended target may be more costly than undershooting, such as when reaching for a cup of hot coffee. The current body of literature lacks a detailed account of how the costs or consequences of memory error influence what we encode in visual memory and how we act on the basis of remembered information. Here, we study how externally imposed monetary costs influence behavior in a motor decision task that involves reach planning based on recalled information from VWM. We approach this from a decision theoretic perspective, viewing decisions of where to aim in relation to the utility of their outcomes given the uncertainty of memory representations. Our results indicate that subjects accounted for the uncertainty in their visual memory, showing a significant difference in their reach planning when monetary costs were imposed for memory errors. However, our findings indicate that subjects memory representations per se were not biased by the imposed costs, but rather subjects adopted a near-optimal post-mnemonic decision strategy in their motor planning.

  2. Personal practical theories, self-identity, and astronomy teachers' interactive decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Marvin Elliot

    2005-12-01

    Research has suggested that beliefs play a major role in selecting and defining teaching tasks and organizing the knowledge needed to perform those tasks. Teachers, consciously or unconsciously, depend on beliefs because they work in ill-structured domains where traditional problem solving techniques and academic knowledge do not work as well. The goal of this project was to establish, if possible, a causal link between teacher beliefs and interactive decision making through empirical, qualitative research. The hypothesis was, that when faced with those sorts of situations, the participants would fall back on belief systems that did not necessarily have a rational basis. The research focused on astronomy teachers in community colleges. Since most science reform efforts are directed toward primary and secondary schools, community college science teaching remains a neglected area of study. Yet community colleges are predicted to play an increasingly important role in higher education in the near future. For many students, community college science classes may represent their last encounter with formal, academic, science programs. The three participants were interviewed and observed in the classroom over an extended period. Initial interviews were conducted with each participant to capture stated beliefs. After the extensive classroom observations, stimulated recall interviews were held with each participant viewing short, edited segments of the classroom videotapes. No direct causal link between beliefs (in the conventional sense of the word) and participant decision making is apparent from this empirical research. However, the construct of personal practical theories, which includes beliefs as one component, shows promise as a significant determining factor in interactive decision making. Themes have been developed that represent each participant's personal practical theories. The strongest theme, applicable to all participants, is based on the notion of

  3. Imitation dynamics of vaccine decision-making behaviours based on the game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Junyuan; Martcheva, Maia; Chen, Yuming

    2016-01-01

    Based on game theory, we propose an age-structured model to investigate the imitation dynamics of vaccine uptake. We first obtain the existence and local stability of equilibria. We show that Hopf bifurcation can occur. We also establish the global stability of the boundary equilibria and persistence of the disease. The theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations.

  4. Theory and research in audiology education: understanding and representing complexity through informed methodological decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Stella L

    2013-05-01

    The discipline of audiology has the opportunity to embark on research in education from an informed perspective, learning from professions that began this journey decades ago. The goal of this article is to position our discipline as a new member in the academic field of health professional education (HPE), with much to learn and contribute. In this article, I discuss the need for theory in informing HPE research. I also stress the importance of balancing our research goals by selecting appropriate methodologies for relevant research questions, to ensure that we respect the complexity of social processes inherent in HPE. Examples of relevant research questions are used to illustrate the need to consider alternative methodologies and to rethink the traditional hierarchy of evidence. I also provide an example of the thought processes and decisions that informed the design of an educational research study using a constructivist grounded theory methodology. As audiology enters the scholarly field of HPE, we need to arm ourselves with some of the knowledge and perspective that informs the field. Thus, we need to broaden our conceptions of what we consider to be appropriate styles of academic writing, relevant research questions, and valid evidence. Also, if we are to embark on qualitative inquiry into audiology education (or other audiology topics), we need to ensure that we conduct this research with an adequate understanding of the theories and methodologies informing such approaches. We must strive to conduct high quality, rigorous qualitative research more often than uninformed, generic qualitative research. These goals are imperative to the advancement of the theoretical landscape of audiology education and evolving the place of audiology in the field of HPE. American Academy of Audiology.

  5. Comparison of multiple-criteria decision-making methods - results of simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Adamczak

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Today, both researchers and practitioners have many methods for supporting the decision-making process. Due to the conditions in which supply chains function, the most interesting are multi-criteria methods. The use of sophisticated methods for supporting decisions requires the parameterization and execution of calculations that are often complex. So is it efficient to use sophisticated methods? Methods: The authors of the publication compared two popular multi-criteria decision-making methods: the  Weighted Sum Model (WSM and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. A simulation study reflects these two decision-making methods. Input data for this study was a set of criteria weights and the value of each in terms of each criterion. Results: The iGrafx Process for Six Sigma simulation software recreated how both multiple-criteria decision-making methods (WSM and AHP function. The result of the simulation was a numerical value defining the preference of each of the alternatives according to the WSM and AHP methods. The alternative producing a result of higher numerical value  was considered preferred, according to the selected method. In the analysis of the results, the relationship between the values of the parameters and the difference in the results presented by both methods was investigated. Statistical methods, including hypothesis testing, were used for this purpose. Conclusions: The simulation study findings prove that the results obtained with the use of two multiple-criteria decision-making methods are very similar. Differences occurred more frequently in lower-value parameters from the "value of each alternative" group and higher-value parameters from the "weight of criteria" group.

  6. DECISION LEVEL FUSION OF LIDAR DATA AND AERIAL COLOR IMAGERY BASED ON BAYESIAN THEORY FOR URBAN AREA CLASSIFICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Rastiveis

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR generates high-density 3D point clouds to provide a comprehensive information from object surfaces. Combining this data with aerial/satellite imagery is quite promising for improving land cover classification. In this study, fusion of LiDAR data and aerial imagery based on Bayesian theory in a three-level fusion algorithm is presented. In the first level, pixel-level fusion, the proper descriptors for both LiDAR and image data are extracted. In the next level of fusion, feature-level, using extracted features the area are classified into six classes of “Buildings”, “Trees”, “Asphalt Roads”, “Concrete roads”, “Grass” and “Cars” using Naïve Bayes classification algorithm. This classification is performed in three different strategies: (1 using merely LiDAR data, (2 using merely image data, and (3 using all extracted features from LiDAR and image. The results of three classifiers are integrated in the last phase, decision level fusion, based on Naïve Bayes algorithm. To evaluate the proposed algorithm, a high resolution color orthophoto and LiDAR data over the urban areas of Zeebruges, Belgium were applied. Obtained results from the decision level fusion phase revealed an improvement in overall accuracy and kappa coefficient.

  7. Decision Making Models in the Financial Market: A Study in the Light of Prospect Theory and Limited Rationality

    OpenAIRE

    Alex Diego Souza Queiroz; Marilia Oliveira dos Reis; Joseilton Silveira da Rocha

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine whether the decision-making models present in Prospect Theory and the theory of limited rationality could help managers of financial institutions identify and control the emotions and rational limitations involved in the credit granting process in the financial market. To this end, a study was carried out with 17 bank managers as experimental group and 31 other managers from different areas as control group. Adopting a quantitative approach to rese...

  8. Exact Results in Non-Supersymmetric Large N Orientifold Field Theories

    CERN Document Server

    Armoni, Adi; Veneziano, Gabriele

    2003-01-01

    We consider non-supersymmetric large N orientifold field theories. Specifically, we discuss a gauge theory with a Dirac fermion in the anti-symmetric tensor representation. We argue that, at large N and in a large part of its bosonic sector, this theory is non-perturbatively equivalent to N=1 SYM, so that exact results established in the latter (parent) theory also hold in the daughter orientifold theory. In particular, the non-supersymmetric theory has an exactly calculable bifermion condensate, exactly degenerate parity doublets, and a vanishing cosmological constant (all this to leading order in 1/N).

  9. Design of nuclear emergency decision-making support system based on the results of radiation monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Qiyan; Zhang Lijun; Huang Weiqi; Chen Lin

    2010-01-01

    For nuclear emergency decision-making support system based on the results of radiation monitoring, its main assignment is receiving radiation monitoring data and analyzing them, to accomplish some works such as environment influence evaluation, dose assessment for emergency responder, decision-making analyzing and effectiveness evaluation for emergency actions, etc.. This system is made up of server, communication terminal, data-analyzing terminal, GPRS modules, printer, and so on. The whole system make of a LAN. The system's software is made up of six subsystems: data-analyzing subsystem, reporting subsystem, GIS subsystem, communication subsystem, user-managing subsystem and data-base. (authors)

  10. Decision-making under risk. An overview of some alternative utility theories; Beslissingen onder risico. Een overzicht van enkele alternatieve nutstheorieen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pauwels, N.; Van Woensel, T

    1998-09-01

    Decision-makers often have to take decisions with unknown consequences that depend on various events which on their turn can take place a certain chance. Under the given circumstances, the traditional decision criterion is based on the maximisation of the expected benefits. Experimental studies have however revealed important inconsistencies between decisions taken on the basis of this decision criterion on the one hand and the observed decisions on the other hand. The report gives an overview of a number of alternative theories extending or adapting the traditional theory in view of avoiding the observed inconsistencies.

  11. Consumer decision-making with regard to organic food products: Results from the CONDOR project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, John

    Based on a survey in eight European countries, a model of consumer decision making and behaviour with regard to organic food is presented as well as comparative results. It is found that the reasons given and the reasoning behind choosing organic products are quite similar across countries...

  12. Supporting ALARP decision-making by cost benefit analysis and multi-attribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, Simon; Bedford, Tim; Atherton, Elizabeth

    2001-01-01

    Current regulation in the UK and elsewhere specify upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of frequencies of various kinds of accidents and accidental releases per annum. 'As low as reasonably practicable' (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. We assess the suitability of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) for performing ALARP ('as low as reasonably possible') assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using 'disproportionality', and the use of discounting to trade off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk-informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a non-uniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). We discuss the problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions. We argue that multi-attribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. We also argue that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which

  13. Applying Social Learning Theory of Career Decision Making to Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgender, and Questioning Young Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datti, Paul A.

    2009-01-01

    Incorporating J. D. Krumboltz's (1979) social learning theory of career decision making, the author explores career development issues for gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender, and questioning (GLBTQ) adolescents and young adults. Unique challenges for the GLBTQ population are discussed, specific recommendations for effective career counseling with…

  14. Dual Coding Theory Explains Biphasic Collective Computation in Neural Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan C. Daniels

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A central question in cognitive neuroscience is how unitary, coherent decisions at the whole organism level can arise from the distributed behavior of a large population of neurons with only partially overlapping information. We address this issue by studying neural spiking behavior recorded from a multielectrode array with 169 channels during a visual motion direction discrimination task. It is well known that in this task there are two distinct phases in neural spiking behavior. Here we show Phase I is a distributed or incompressible phase in which uncertainty about the decision is substantially reduced by pooling information from many cells. Phase II is a redundant or compressible phase in which numerous single cells contain all the information present at the population level in Phase I, such that the firing behavior of a single cell is enough to predict the subject's decision. Using an empirically grounded dynamical modeling framework, we show that in Phase I large cell populations with low redundancy produce a slow timescale of information aggregation through critical slowing down near a symmetry-breaking transition. Our model indicates that increasing collective amplification in Phase II leads naturally to a faster timescale of information pooling and consensus formation. Based on our results and others in the literature, we propose that a general feature of collective computation is a “coding duality” in which there are accumulation and consensus formation processes distinguished by different timescales.

  15. Dual Coding Theory Explains Biphasic Collective Computation in Neural Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Bryan C; Flack, Jessica C; Krakauer, David C

    2017-01-01

    A central question in cognitive neuroscience is how unitary, coherent decisions at the whole organism level can arise from the distributed behavior of a large population of neurons with only partially overlapping information. We address this issue by studying neural spiking behavior recorded from a multielectrode array with 169 channels during a visual motion direction discrimination task. It is well known that in this task there are two distinct phases in neural spiking behavior. Here we show Phase I is a distributed or incompressible phase in which uncertainty about the decision is substantially reduced by pooling information from many cells. Phase II is a redundant or compressible phase in which numerous single cells contain all the information present at the population level in Phase I, such that the firing behavior of a single cell is enough to predict the subject's decision. Using an empirically grounded dynamical modeling framework, we show that in Phase I large cell populations with low redundancy produce a slow timescale of information aggregation through critical slowing down near a symmetry-breaking transition. Our model indicates that increasing collective amplification in Phase II leads naturally to a faster timescale of information pooling and consensus formation. Based on our results and others in the literature, we propose that a general feature of collective computation is a "coding duality" in which there are accumulation and consensus formation processes distinguished by different timescales.

  16. Estimation of a quantity of interest in uncertainty analysis: Some help from Bayesian decision theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasanisi, Alberto; Keller, Merlin; Parent, Eric

    2012-01-01

    In the context of risk analysis under uncertainty, we focus here on the problem of estimating a so-called quantity of interest of an uncertainty analysis problem, i.e. a given feature of the probability distribution function (pdf) of the output of a deterministic model with uncertain inputs. We will stay here in a fully probabilistic setting. A common problem is how to account for epistemic uncertainty tainting the parameter of the probability distribution of the inputs. In the standard practice, this uncertainty is often neglected (plug-in approach). When a specific uncertainty assessment is made, under the basis of the available information (expertise and/or data), a common solution consists in marginalizing the joint distribution of both observable inputs and parameters of the probabilistic model (i.e. computing the predictive pdf of the inputs), then propagating it through the deterministic model. We will reinterpret this approach in the light of Bayesian decision theory, and will put into evidence that this practice leads the analyst to adopt implicitly a specific loss function which may be inappropriate for the problem under investigation, and suboptimal from a decisional perspective. These concepts are illustrated on a simple numerical example, concerning a case of flood risk assessment.

  17. Application of Bayesian statistical decision theory for a maintenance optimization problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Muller, S.

    1997-01-01

    Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) is a rational approach that can be used to identify the equipment of facilities that may turn out to be critical with respect to safety, to availability, or to maintenance costs. Is is dor these critical pieces of equipment alone that a corrective (one waits for a failure) or preventive (the type and frequency are specified) maintenance policy is established. But this approach has limitations: - when there is little operating feedback and it concerns rare events affecting a piece of equipment judged critical on a priori grounds (how is it possible, in this case, to decide whether or not it is critical, since there is conflict between the gravity of the potential failure and its frequency?); - when the aim is propose an optimal maintenance frequency for a critical piece of equipment - changing the maintenance frequency hitherto applied may cause a significant drift in the observed reliability of the equipment, an aspect not generally taken into account in the RCM approach. In these two situations, expert judgments can be combined with the available operating feedback (Bayesian approach) and the combination of risk of failure and economic consequences taken into account (statistical decision theory) to achieve a true optimization of maintenance policy choices. This paper presents an application on the maintenance of diesel generator component

  18. New results in the theory of dust grain alignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cugnon, Pierre

    1989-01-01

    Two complementary approaches are used in an attempt to propose an appropriate formulation of the solution to the problem of magnetic alignment of grains in the diffuse and/or the more denser clouds, whatever the mechanism of rotational excitation can be. The interest of such a unified formulation is mainly that the same theoretical expression for polarization can be used everywhere, allowing for easier comparisons between regions where the physical conditions are highly different. The first consists in applying a Monte-Carlo method to a limited number of representative cases, for which all the torques acting on the grain are taken into account: impulsive random torques due to direct collisions with gas atoms, to evaporation of atoms from the surface, and to exo-energetic recombinations forming hydrogen molecules, followed by violent ejections from peculiar sites; magnetic torques. Three characteristic times are associated with these torques: the collisional damping time, the time necessary to change completely the actual sites configuration narrowly bound to the correlation time of the suprathermal torque; and the magnetic damping time. The second approach starts from a heuristic point of view. It consists in a generalization of results (Cugnon, 1983; see also Purcell and Spitzer, 1971; Greenberg, 1978) obtained for thermal alignment to the suprathermal case. It appears indeed that in two extreme cases, the thermal formulation may be used after redefinition of involved times and temperatures.

  19. New results in the theory of dust grain alignment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cugnon, P.

    1989-01-01

    Two complementary approaches are used in an attempt to propose an appropriate formulation of the solution to the problem of magnetic alignment of grains in the diffuse and/or the more denser clouds, whatever the mechanism of rotational excitation can be. The interest of such a unified formulation is mainly that the same theoretical expression for polarization can be used everywhere, allowing for easier comparisons between regions where the physical conditions are highly different. The first consists in applying a Monte-Carlo method to a limited number of representative cases, for which all the torques acting on the grain are taken into account: impulsive random torques due to direct collisions with gas atoms, to evaporation of atoms from the surface, and to exo-energetic recombinations forming hydrogen molecules, followed by violent ejections from peculiar sites; magnetic torques. Three characteristic times are associated with these torques: the collisional damping time, the time necessary to change completely the actual sites configuration narrowly bound to the correlation time of the suprathermal torque; and the magnetic damping time. The second approach starts from a heuristic point of view. It consists in a generalization of results (Cugnon, 1983; see also Purcell and Spitzer, 1971; Greenberg, 1978) obtained for thermal alignment to the suprathermal case. It appears indeed that in two extreme cases, the thermal formulation may be used after redefinition of involved times and temperatures

  20. OPERA and MINOS Experimental Result Prove Big Bang Theory Invalid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressler, David E.

    2012-03-01

    The greatest error in the history of science is the misinterpretation of the Michelson-Morley Experiment. The speed of light was measured to travel at the same speed in all three directions (x, y, z axis) in ones own inertial reference system; however, c will always be measured as having an absolute different speed in all other inertial frames at different energy levels. Time slows down due to motion or a gravity field. Time is the rate of physical process. Speed = Distance/Time. If the time changes the distance must change. Therefore, BOTH mirrors must move towards the center of the interferometer and space must contract in all-three-directions; C-Space. Gravity is a C-Space condition, and is the cause of redshift in our universe-not motion. The universe is not expanding. OPERA results are directly indicated; at the surface of earth, the strength of the gravity field is at maximum-below the earth's surface, time and space is less distorted, C-Space; therefore, c is faster. Newtonian mechanics dictate that a spherical shell of matter at greater radii, with uniform density, produces no net force on an observer located centrally. An observer located on the sphere's surface, like our Earth's or a large sphere, like one located in a remote galaxy, will construct a picture centered on himself to be identical to the one centered inside the spherical shell of mass. Both observers will view the incoming radiation, emitted by the other observer, as redshifted, because they lay on each others radial line. The Universe is static and very old.

  1. An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Transformer Condition Assessment Using Game Theory and Modified Evidence Combination Extended by D Numbers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingjie Sun

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The power transformer is one of the most critical and expensive components for the stable operation of the power system. Hence, how to obtain the health condition of transformer is of great importance for power utilities. Multi-attribute decision-making (MADM, due to its ability of solving multi-source information problems, has become a quite effective tool to evaluate the health condition of transformers. Currently, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and Dempster–Shafer theory are two popular methods to solve MADM problems; however, these techniques rarely consider one-sidedness of the single weighting method and the exclusiveness hypothesis of the Dempster–Shafer theory. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces a novel decision-making model, which integrates the merits of fuzzy set theory, game theory and modified evidence combination extended by D numbers, to evaluate the health condition of transformers. A four-level framework, which includes three factors and seventeen sub-factors, is put forward to facilitate the evaluation model. The model points out the following: First, the fuzzy set theory is employed to obtain the original basic probability assignments for all indices. Second, the subjective and objective weights of indices, which are calculated by fuzzy AHP and entropy weight, respectively, are integrated to generate the comprehensive weights based on game theory. Finally, based on the above two steps, the modified evidence combination extended by D numbers, which avoids the limitation of the exclusiveness hypothesis in the application of Dempster–Shafer theory, is proposed to obtain the final assessment results of transformers. Case studies are given to demonstrate the proposed modeling process. The results show the effectiveness and engineering practicability of the model in transformer condition assessment.

  2. Updating Optimal Decisions Using Game Theory and Exploring Risk Behavior Through Response Surface Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jordan, Jeremy D

    2007-01-01

    .... Methodology is developed that allows a decision maker to change his perceived optimal policy based on available knowledge of the opponents strategy, where the opponent is a rational decision maker...

  3. Applicability of the theory of business decision making based on the example of Serbian cultural tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasojević Branko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is a complex system that must, theoretically, be observed through interdisciplinary studies, because it is practically connected to many aspects of modern civilization. In tourism, as a system, tangible and intangible values are included that are being and have been created by the nature, but also by activity and knowledge of people. Tourism is happening everywhere, sometimes it spontaneously arises and disappears unexpectedly. Tourism as a business system and a process does not involve mainly large and complex systems of functioning. The tourism industry is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, family businesses, constantly new and creative ideas. The biggest business systems are hotels and large tour operators. Therefore the destination of all levels occur - from the local destination to the world as a destination. Destinations are systems in which tourism is only a part of all events. The management of such a system is a complex, challenging and often unpredictable process. However, it seems that anybody can 'deal' in tourism, that tourism is easy to manage and to make the right business decisions. It often happens that tourism is not essentially managed by anyone, that it is left to itself, or to the individuals and small business units. In this paper, there is a research dilemma - whether the models of business decision-making are being applied in the cultural tourism of Serbia, by which means and with what results? The results of the work were obtained using analytical and synthetic methods of content analysis.

  4. The Decision to Emigrate: A Simulation Model Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willekens, F.J.; Grow, A.; Van Bavel, J.

    2016-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) is one of the most widely used theories of behaviour. It was developed by Ajzen as an extension of Fishbein’s theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Predicting and changing behaviour. Psychology Press, New York, 2010). The theory states that intentions

  5. Application of Game Theory in Describing Efficacy of Decision Making in Sportsman’s Tactical Performance in Team Sports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joško Sindik

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical method of decision-making in which a competitive or cooperative situation is analyzed to determine the optimal course of action for an interested “player” is often called game theory. Game theory has very broad application in different sciences. Team sports tactical performance is considered from the aspects of data processing theory and the phenomenon of selective attention, as well as from the game theory. Team sports tactical performance is an asymmetric, sequential (of imperfect information, non-zero-sum game. In decision making, predictability in team sports is in fact bargaining, and the player has to use a mixed strategy for choosing option with highest expected utility. Player could choose a trembling hand equilibrium, to eliminate imperfect equilibrium. Strategic dominance conceipt can explain that a player could choose strategy which dominates between other possible strategies, and/or could be led by “team reasoning”, too. In this article, the level of predictability of the most frequent tactical performance of one player in a team sport game is considered, reflecting outcomes both for the same team’s tactical performance (co-players in one player’s team, as well as for the opponent team’s tactical performance. Four different possible situations during team sport competition could lead to considering utilities of one player’s specific decisions.

  6. The Precautionary Principle, Evidence-Based Medicine, and Decision Theory in Public Health Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Alastair J.; Ghelardi, Gemma

    2016-01-01

    The precautionary principle (PP) has been used in the evaluation of the effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness of interventions designed to prevent future harms in a range of activities, particularly in the area of the environment. Here, we provide details of circumstances under which the PP can be applied to the topic of harm reduction in Public Health. The definition of PP that we use says that the PP reverses the onus of proof of effectiveness between an intervention and its comparator when the intervention has been designed to reduce harm. We first describe the two frameworks used for health-care evaluation: evidence-based medicine (EBM) and decision theory (DT). EBM is usually used in treatment effectiveness evaluation, while either EBM or DT may be used in evaluating the effectiveness of the prevention of illness. For cost-effectiveness, DT is always used. The expectation in Public Health is that interventions employed to reduce harm will not actually increase harm, where “harm” in this context does not include opportunity cost. That implies that an intervention’s effectiveness can often be assumed. Attention should therefore focus on its cost-effectiveness. This view is consistent with the conclusions of DT. It is also very close to the PP notion of reversing the onus of proof, but is not consistent with EBM as normally practiced, where the onus is on showing a new practice to be superior to usual practice with a sufficiently high degree of certainty. Under our definitions, we show that where DT and the PP differ in their evaluation is in cost-effectiveness, but only for decisions that involve potential catastrophic circumstances, where the nation-state will act as if it is risk-averse. In those cases, it is likely that the state will pay more, and possibly much more, than DT would allow, in an attempt to mitigate impending disaster. That is, the rules that until now have governed all cost-effectiveness analyses are shown not to apply to catastrophic

  7. Criteria for selecting implementation science theories and frameworks: results from an international survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah A. Birken

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Theories provide a synthesizing architecture for implementation science. The underuse, superficial use, and misuse of theories pose a substantial scientific challenge for implementation science and may relate to challenges in selecting from the many theories in the field. Implementation scientists may benefit from guidance for selecting a theory for a specific study or project. Understanding how implementation scientists select theories will help inform efforts to develop such guidance. Our objective was to identify which theories implementation scientists use, how they use theories, and the criteria used to select theories. Methods We identified initial lists of uses and criteria for selecting implementation theories based on seminal articles and an iterative consensus process. We incorporated these lists into a self-administered survey for completion by self-identified implementation scientists. We recruited potential respondents at the 8th Annual Conference on the Science of Dissemination and Implementation in Health and via several international email lists. We used frequencies and percentages to report results. Results Two hundred twenty-three implementation scientists from 12 countries responded to the survey. They reported using more than 100 different theories spanning several disciplines. Respondents reported using theories primarily to identify implementation determinants, inform data collection, enhance conceptual clarity, and guide implementation planning. Of the 19 criteria presented in the survey, the criteria used by the most respondents to select theory included analytic level (58%, logical consistency/plausibility (56%, empirical support (53%, and description of a change process (54%. The criteria used by the fewest respondents included fecundity (10%, uniqueness (12%, and falsifiability (15%. Conclusions Implementation scientists use a large number of criteria to select theories, but there is little

  8. Reliability of equipments and theory of frequency statistics and Bayesian decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Clarotti, C.A.

    1992-01-01

    The rapid development of Bayesian techniques use in the domain of industrial risk is a recent phenomenon linked to the development of powerful computers. These techniques involve a reasoning well adapted to experimental logics, based on the dynamical knowledge enrichment with experience data. In the framework of reliability studies and statistical decision making, these methods differ slightly from the methods commonly used to evaluate the reliability of systems and from classical theoretical frequency statistics. This particular approach is described in this book and illustrated with many examples of application (power plants, pressure vessels, industrial installations etc..). These examples generally concern the risk management in the cases where the application of rules and the respect of norms become insufficient. It is now well known that the risk cannot be reduced to zero and that its evaluation must be performed using statistics, taking into account the possible accident processes and also the investments necessary to avoid them (service life, failure, maintenance costs and availability of materials). The result is the optimizing of a decision process about rare or uncertain events. (J.S.)

  9. Criteria for selecting implementation science theories and frameworks: results from an international survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birken, Sarah A; Powell, Byron J; Shea, Christopher M; Haines, Emily R; Alexis Kirk, M; Leeman, Jennifer; Rohweder, Catherine; Damschroder, Laura; Presseau, Justin

    2017-10-30

    Theories provide a synthesizing architecture for implementation science. The underuse, superficial use, and misuse of theories pose a substantial scientific challenge for implementation science and may relate to challenges in selecting from the many theories in the field. Implementation scientists may benefit from guidance for selecting a theory for a specific study or project. Understanding how implementation scientists select theories will help inform efforts to develop such guidance. Our objective was to identify which theories implementation scientists use, how they use theories, and the criteria used to select theories. We identified initial lists of uses and criteria for selecting implementation theories based on seminal articles and an iterative consensus process. We incorporated these lists into a self-administered survey for completion by self-identified implementation scientists. We recruited potential respondents at the 8th Annual Conference on the Science of Dissemination and Implementation in Health and via several international email lists. We used frequencies and percentages to report results. Two hundred twenty-three implementation scientists from 12 countries responded to the survey. They reported using more than 100 different theories spanning several disciplines. Respondents reported using theories primarily to identify implementation determinants, inform data collection, enhance conceptual clarity, and guide implementation planning. Of the 19 criteria presented in the survey, the criteria used by the most respondents to select theory included analytic level (58%), logical consistency/plausibility (56%), empirical support (53%), and description of a change process (54%). The criteria used by the fewest respondents included fecundity (10%), uniqueness (12%), and falsifiability (15%). Implementation scientists use a large number of criteria to select theories, but there is little consensus on which are most important. Our results suggest that the

  10. Do Decision 2003/54/EC and Decision no. 1229/2003/EC result in a European market for electricity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wenting, F.

    2004-01-01

    In the summer of 2003 the European Parliament and the European Council issued a new Directive with respect to the internal market for electricity (Directive 2003/54/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 June 2003 concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity) and Guidelines for trans-European networks in the energy sector (Decision no. 1229/2003/EC). The question is whether these decisions will lead to a European and free market for electricity. It is concluded that this is not yet the case [nl

  11. Decision-making theories and their usefulness to the midwifery profession both in terms of midwifery practice and the education of midwives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jefford, Elaine; Fahy, Kathleen; Sundin, Deborah

    2011-06-01

    What are the strengths and limitations of existing Decision-Making Theories as a basis for guiding best practice clinical decision-making within a framework of midwifery philosophy? Each theory is compared in relation with how well they provide a teachable framework for midwifery clinical reasoning that is consistent with midwifery philosophy. Hypothetico-Deductive Theory, from which medical clinical reasoning is based; intuitive decision-making; Dual Processing Theory; The International Confederation of Midwives Clinical Decision-Making Framework; Australian Nursing and Midwifery Council Midwifery Practice Decisions Flowchart and Midwifery Practice. Best practice midwifery clinical Decision-Making Theory needs to give guidance about: (i) effective use of cognitive reasoning processes; (ii) how to include contextual and emotional factors; (iii) how to include the interests of the baby as an integral part of the woman; (iv) decision-making in partnership with woman; and (v) how to recognize/respond to clinical situations outside the midwife's legal/personal scope of practice. No existing Decision-Making Theory meets the needs of midwifery. Medical clinical reasoning has a good contribution to make in terms of cognitive reasoning processes. Two limitations of medical clinical reasoning are its reductionistic focus and privileging of reason to the exclusion of emotional and contextual factors. Hypothetico-deductive clinical reasoning is a necessary but insufficient condition for best practice clinical decision-making in midwifery. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  12. Rational decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Binmore, Ken

    2008-01-01

    It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,

  13. Uninformed Clinical Decisions Resulting From Lack of Adherence Assessment in Children with New Onset Epilepsy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modi, Avani C.; Wu, Yelena P.; Guilfoyle, Shanna M.; Glauser, Tracy A.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between non-adherence to antiepileptic drug (AED) therapy and clinical decision-making in a cohort of 112 children with newly-diagnosed epilepsy. AED adherence was monitored using electronic monitoring over the first six months of therapy. The primary outcome measure was rate of uninformed clinical decisions as defined by number of participants with AED dosage or drug changes to address continued seizures who demonstrated non-adherence prior to the seizure. Among the 52 (47%) participants who had an AED change for continued seizures, 30 (27% of the overall cohort) had imperfect medication adherence prior to their seizures. A quarter of children with new onset epilepsy had uninformed medication changes because adherence was not rigorously assessed in clinical practice. Results highlight the importance of routinely assessing medication adherence in this population. PMID:23159375

  14. Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Testing: User Motivations, Decision Making, and Perceived Utility of Results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J Scott; Gornick, Michele C; Carere, Deanna Alexis; Uhlmann, Wendy R; Ruffin, Mack T; Green, Robert C

    2017-01-01

    To describe the interests, decision making, and responses of consumers of direct-to-consumer personal genomic testing (DTC-PGT) services. Prior to 2013 regulatory restrictions on DTC-PGT services, 1,648 consumers from 2 leading companies completed Web surveys before and after receiving test results. Prior to testing, DTC-PGT consumers were as interested in ancestry (74% very interested) and trait information (72%) as they were in disease risks (72%). Among disease risks, heart disease (68% very interested), breast cancer (67%), and Alzheimer disease (66%) were of greatest interest prior to testing. Interest in disease risks was associated with female gender and poorer self-reported health (p decisions. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  15. A two-stage cognitive theory of the positive symptoms of psychosis. Highlighting the role of lowered decision thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moritz, Steffen; Pfuhl, Gerit; Lüdtke, Thies; Menon, Mahesh; Balzan, Ryan P; Andreou, Christina

    2017-09-01

    We outline a two-stage heuristic account for the pathogenesis of the positive symptoms of psychosis. A narrative review on the empirical evidence of the liberal acceptance (LA) account of positive symptoms is presented. At the heart of our theory is the idea that psychosis is characterized by a lowered decision threshold, which results in the premature acceptance of hypotheses that a nonpsychotic individual would reject. Once the hypothesis is judged as valid, counterevidence is not sought anymore due to a bias against disconfirmatory evidence as well as confirmation biases, consolidating the false hypothesis. As a result of LA, confidence in errors is enhanced relative to controls. Subjective probabilities are initially low for hypotheses in individuals with delusions, and delusional ideas at stage 1 (belief formation) are often fragile. In the course of the second stage (belief maintenance), fleeting delusional ideas evolve into fixed false beliefs, particularly if the delusional idea is congruent with the emotional state and provides "meaning". LA may also contribute to hallucinations through a misattribution of (partially) normal sensory phenomena. Interventions such as metacognitive training that aim to "plant the seeds of doubt" decrease positive symptoms by encouraging individuals to seek more information and to attenuate confidence. The effect of antipsychotic medication is explained by its doubt-inducing properties. The model needs to be confirmed by longitudinal designs that allow an examination of causal relationships. Evidence is currently weak for hallucinations. The theory may account for positive symptoms in a subgroup of patients. Future directions are outlined. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Decision-making Processes among Prostate Cancer Survivors with Rising PSA Levels: Results from a Qualitative Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Megan Johnson; Nelson, Christian J; Peters, Ellen; Slovin, Susan F; Hall, Simon J; Hall, Matt; Herrera, Phapichaya Chaoprang; Leventhal, Elaine A; Leventhal, Howard; Diefenbach, Michael A

    2015-05-01

    Prostate cancer survivors with a rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level have few treatment options, experience a heightened state of uncertainty about their disease trajectory that might include the possibility of cancer metastasis and death, and often experience elevated levels of distress as they have to deal with a disease they thought they had conquered. Guided by self-regulation theory, the present study examined the cognitive and affective processes involved in shared decision making between physicians and patients who experience a rising PSA after definitive treatment for prostate cancer. In-depth interviews were conducted with 34 prostate cancer survivors who had been diagnosed with a rising PSA (i.e., biochemical failure) within the past 12 months. Survivors were asked about their experiences and affective responses after being diagnosed with a rising PSA and while weighing potential treatment options. In addition, patients were asked about their decision-making process for the initial prostate cancer treatment. Compared with the initial diagnosis, survivors with a rising PSA reported increased negative affect following their diagnosis, concern about the treatability of their disease, increased planning and health behavior change, heightened levels of worry preceding doctor appointments (especially prior to the discussion of PSA testing results), and a strong reliance on physicians' treatment recommendations. Prostate cancer survivors' decision-making processes for the treatment of a rising PSA are markedly different from those of the initial diagnosis of prostate cancer. Because patients experience heightened distress and rely more heavily on their physicians' recommendations with a rising PSA, interactions with the health care provider provide an excellent opportunity to address and assist patients with managing the uncertainty and distress inherent with rising PSA levels. © The Author(s) 2014.

  17. Stairs or escalator? Using theories of persuasion and motivation to facilitate healthy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suri, Gaurav; Sheppes, Gal; Leslie, Sara; Gross, James J

    2014-12-01

    To encourage an increase in daily activity, researchers have tried a variety of health-related communications, but with mixed results. In the present research-using the stair escalator choice context-we examined predictions derived from the Heuristic Systematic Model (HSM), Self Determination Theory (SDT), and related theories. Specifically, we tested whether (as predicted by HSM) signs that encourage heuristic processing ("Take the Stairs") would have greatest impact when placed at the stair/escalator point of choice (when processing time is limited), whereas signs that encourage systematic processing ("Will You Take the Stairs?") would have greatest impact when placed at some distance from the point of choice (when processing time is less limited). We also tested whether (as predicted by SDT) messages promoting autonomy would be more likely to result in sustained motivated behavior (i.e., stair taking at subsequent uncued choice points) than messages that use commands. A series of studies involving more than 9,000 pedestrians provided support for these predictions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Introducing Emotioncy as an Invisible Force Controlling Causal Decisions: A Case of Attribution Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pishghadam Reza

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Given the prominence of studies aimed at determining the factors influencing causal judgments, this study attempts to introduce the newly-developed concept of emotioncy as one of the guiding factors pushing attribution judgments toward a certain spectrum. To this end, two scales of attribution and emotioncy were designed using ten hypothetical situations. A total number of 309 participants filled out the scales. The construct validity of the scales was substantiated through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA. Afterwards, structural equation modeling (SEM was utilized to examine the possible relationships among the sub-constructs of attribution and emotioncy scales. The results indicated that as the participants’ emotioncy level increases, it becomes more likely for them to attribute probable causes to external factors. Moreover, it was revealed that while the involved individuals attribute causes to external factors, the exvolved ones attribute them to internal factors. In the end, implications of the findings were discussed in the realm of judgment and decision making.

  19. Reactor safety impact of functional test intervals: an application of Bayesian decision theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buoni, F.B.

    1978-01-01

    Functional test intervals for important nuclear reactor systems can be obtained by viewing safety assessment as a decision process and functional testing as a Bayesian learning or information process. A preposterior analysis is used as the analytical model to find the preposterior expected reliability of a system as a function of test intervals. Persistent and transitory failure models are shown to yield different results. Functional tests of systems subject to persistent failure are effective in maintaining system reliability goals. Functional testing is not effective for systems subject to transitory failure; preventive maintenance must be used. A Bayesian posterior analysis of testing data can discriminate between persistent and transitory failure. The role of functional testing is seen to be an aid in assessing the future performance of reactor systems

  20. Application of decision tree technique to sensitivity analysis for results of radionuclide migration calculations. Research documents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Kunihiko; Makino, Hitoshi

    2005-03-01

    Uncertainties are always present in the parameters used for the nuclide migration analysis in the geological disposal system. These uncertainties affect the result of such analyses, e.g., and the identification of dominant nuclides. It is very important to identify the parameters causing the significant impact on the results, and to investigate the influence of identified parameters in order to recognize R and D items with respect to the development of geological disposal system and understanding of the system performance. In our study, the decision tree analysis technique was examined in the sensitivity analysis as a method for investigation of the influences of the parameters and for complement existing sensitivity analysis. As a result, results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation with parameter uncertainties could be distinguished with not only important parameters but also with their quantitative conditions (e.g., ranges of parameter values). Furthermore, information obtained from the decision tree analysis could be used 1) to categorize the results obtained from the nuclide migration analysis for a given parameter set, 2) to show prospective effect of reduction to parameter uncertainties on the results. (author)

  1. Help-Seeking Decisions of Battered Women: A Test of Learned Helplessness and Two Stress Theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wauchope, Barbara A.

    This study tested the learned helplessness theory, stress theory, and a modified stress theory to determine the best model for predicting the probability that a woman would seek help when she experienced severe violence from a male partner. The probability was hypothesized to increase as the stress of the violence experienced increased. Data were…

  2. When Quality Beats Quantity: Decision Theory, Drug Discovery, and the Reproducibility Crisis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jack W Scannell

    Full Text Available A striking contrast runs through the last 60 years of biopharmaceutical discovery, research, and development. Huge scientific and technological gains should have increased the quality of academic science and raised industrial R&D efficiency. However, academia faces a "reproducibility crisis"; inflation-adjusted industrial R&D costs per novel drug increased nearly 100 fold between 1950 and 2010; and drugs are more likely to fail in clinical development today than in the 1970s. The contrast is explicable only if powerful headwinds reversed the gains and/or if many "gains" have proved illusory. However, discussions of reproducibility and R&D productivity rarely address this point explicitly. The main objectives of the primary research in this paper are: (a to provide quantitatively and historically plausible explanations of the contrast; and (b identify factors to which R&D efficiency is sensitive. We present a quantitative decision-theoretic model of the R&D process. The model represents therapeutic candidates (e.g., putative drug targets, molecules in a screening library, etc. within a "measurement space", with candidates' positions determined by their performance on a variety of assays (e.g., binding affinity, toxicity, in vivo efficacy, etc. whose results correlate to a greater or lesser degree. We apply decision rules to segment the space, and assess the probability of correct R&D decisions. We find that when searching for rare positives (e.g., candidates that will successfully complete clinical development, changes in the predictive validity of screening and disease models that many people working in drug discovery would regard as small and/or unknowable (i.e., an 0.1 absolute change in correlation coefficient between model output and clinical outcomes in man can offset large (e.g., 10 fold, even 100 fold changes in models' brute-force efficiency. We also show how validity and reproducibility correlate across a population of simulated

  3. Eyewitness decisions in simultaneous and sequential lineups: a dual-process signal detection theory analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meissner, Christian A; Tredoux, Colin G; Parker, Janat F; MacLin, Otto H

    2005-07-01

    Many eyewitness researchers have argued for the application of a sequential alternative to the traditional simultaneous lineup, given its role in decreasing false identifications of innocent suspects (sequential superiority effect). However, Ebbesen and Flowe (2002) have recently noted that sequential lineups may merely bring about a shift in response criterion, having no effect on discrimination accuracy. We explored this claim, using a method that allows signal detection theory measures to be collected from eyewitnesses. In three experiments, lineup type was factorially combined with conditions expected to influence response criterion and/or discrimination accuracy. Results were consistent with signal detection theory predictions, including that of a conservative criterion shift with the sequential presentation of lineups. In a fourth experiment, we explored the phenomenological basis for the criterion shift, using the remember-know-guess procedure. In accord with previous research, the criterion shift in sequential lineups was associated with a reduction in familiarity-based responding. It is proposed that the relative similarity between lineup members may create a context in which fluency-based processing is facilitated to a greater extent when lineup members are presented simultaneously.

  4. Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keeney, R.L; Nair, K.

    1975-01-01

    The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

  5. The Process of Parents' Decision-Making to Discharge Their Child against Medical Advice (DAMA: A grounded theory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikbakht Nasrabadi Alireza

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Discharge against medical advice (DAMA refers to the phenomenon that patient or the patient’s surrogate decides to leave the hospital before the attending physician confirms the patient is discharged. Children are much more vulnerable to such discharges. This process occurs with different mechanisms that identifying them can be helpful in reducing this phenomenon. We aimed to explore the process of parents' decision-making to discharge their child against medical advice. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 fathers, 10 mothers, 6 nurses and 3 physician assistants and the data were collected to the point of saturation. Grounded theory methodology was adopted for data collection and analysis. The results of qualitative analysis in the field of the parents' decisionmaking on the DAMA revealed 4 main themes: "lack of family-centered care", "disruption of the parenting process", "distrust to the medical team and center" and "psychological strategy of shirk responsibility for child care and treatment ". By providing family-centered care, adopting measures to empowering the families, developing the trust of parents to the health care team and developing a discharge plan from the beginning of children hospitalization with the cooperation of health care team and parents and considering all factors such as child's special health condition and parent's health related perceptions and beliefs, children will not be discharged against medical advice and will experience better outcomes.

  6. Fairness norms and theory of mind in an ultimatum game: judgments, offers, and decisions in school-aged children.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilaria Castelli

    Full Text Available The sensitivity to fairness undergoes relevant changes across development. Whether such changes depend on primary inequity aversion or on sensitivity to a social norm of fairness is still debated. Using a modified version of the Ultimatum Game that creates informational asymmetries between Proposer and Responder, a previous study showed that both perceptions of fairness and fair behavior depend upon normative expectations, i.e., beliefs about what others expect one should do in a specific situation. Individuals tend to comply with the norm when risking sanctions, but disregard the norm when violations are undetectable. Using the same methodology with children aged 8-10 years, the present study shows that children's beliefs and behaviors differ from what is observed in adults. Playing as Proposers, children show a self-serving bias only when there is a clear informational asymmetry. Playing as Responders, they show a remarkable discrepancy between their normative judgment about fair procedures (a coin toss to determine the offer and their behavior (rejection of an unfair offer derived from the coin toss, supporting the existence of an outcome bias effect. Finally, our results reveal no influence of theory of mind on children's decision-making behavior.

  7. Fairness Norms and Theory of Mind in an Ultimatum Game: Judgments, Offers, and Decisions in School-Aged Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelli, Ilaria; Massaro, Davide; Bicchieri, Cristina; Chavez, Alex; Marchetti, Antonella

    2014-01-01

    The sensitivity to fairness undergoes relevant changes across development. Whether such changes depend on primary inequity aversion or on sensitivity to a social norm of fairness is still debated. Using a modified version of the Ultimatum Game that creates informational asymmetries between Proposer and Responder, a previous study showed that both perceptions of fairness and fair behavior depend upon normative expectations, i.e., beliefs about what others expect one should do in a specific situation. Individuals tend to comply with the norm when risking sanctions, but disregard the norm when violations are undetectable. Using the same methodology with children aged 8–10 years, the present study shows that children's beliefs and behaviors differ from what is observed in adults. Playing as Proposers, children show a self-serving bias only when there is a clear informational asymmetry. Playing as Responders, they show a remarkable discrepancy between their normative judgment about fair procedures (a coin toss to determine the offer) and their behavior (rejection of an unfair offer derived from the coin toss), supporting the existence of an outcome bias effect. Finally, our results reveal no influence of theory of mind on children's decision-making behavior. PMID:25118863

  8. A multicriteria decision making approach based on fuzzy theory and credibility mechanism for logistics center location selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bowen; Xiong, Haitao; Jiang, Chengrui

    2014-01-01

    As a hot topic in supply chain management, fuzzy method has been widely used in logistics center location selection to improve the reliability and suitability of the logistics center location selection with respect to the impacts of both qualitative and quantitative factors. However, it does not consider the consistency and the historical assessments accuracy of experts in predecisions. So this paper proposes a multicriteria decision making model based on credibility of decision makers by introducing priority of consistency and historical assessments accuracy mechanism into fuzzy multicriteria decision making approach. In this way, only decision makers who pass the credibility check are qualified to perform the further assessment. Finally, a practical example is analyzed to illustrate how to use the model. The result shows that the fuzzy multicriteria decision making model based on credibility mechanism can improve the reliability and suitability of site selection for the logistics center.

  9. What defines 'enough' information? How policy workers make judgements and decisions during information seeking: preliminary results from an exploratory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.M. Berryman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Reports findings from research in progress investigating judgment and decision making during information seeking in the workplace, in particular, the assessment of enough information. Characteristics of this judgment and the role of context in shaping it are framed against theories of human judgment and decision making. Method. Thirty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted with public sector policy workers in Australia. Two interviews were carried out, the first with individual participants and the second, a joint interview with two participants. Interviews were taped and transcribed and inductive data analysis carried out. Findings. Findings discussed in this paper focus on contextual factors that frame policy workers' judgment and decision making while information seeking, factors including ill-structured problems, shifting goals, time stress and action-feedback loops. Also revealed was the importance of developing a framework, against which the judgment of enough information can be made, and the fluid and iterative nature of these judgments. Conclusion. The contextual factors reported show similarities with those identified by naturalistic decision making researchers, suggesting this new field of decision theory has much to offer researchers into information seeking in context.

  10. Design of analog networks in the control theory formulation. Part 2: Numerical results

    OpenAIRE

    Zemliak, A. M.

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents numerical results of design of nonlinear electronic networks based on the problem formulation in terms of the control theory. Several examples illustrate the prospects of the approach suggested in the first part of the work.

  11. Renormalization of vacuum expectation values in spontaneously broken gauge theories: two-loop results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sperling, Marcus; Stöckinger, Dominik; Voigt, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    We complete the two-loop calculation of β-functions for vacuum expectation values (VEVs) in gauge theories by the missing O(g 4 )-terms. The full two-loop results are presented for generic and supersymmetric theories up to two-loop level in arbitrary R ξ -gauge. The results are obtained by means of a scalar background field, identical to our previous analysis. As a by-product, the two-loop scalar anomalous dimension for generic supersymmetric theories is presented. As an application we compute the β-functions for VEVs and tan β in the MSSM, NMSSM, and E 6 SSM

  12. Mental Models Theory and Military Decision-Marking: A Pilot Experimental Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sparkes, Jason

    2003-01-01

    ...) and in the military (e.g., the USS Vincennes incident). In particular, construction of the mental models used when making critical decisions is vulnerable to both problem complexity and logically conflicting (false) information...

  13. Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ecklund, Marshall V

    2005-01-01

    .... Thus, the central research question is as follows: Given a report of the physical location of an evader, is the military using the most rational decision-making model to offset the predictable nature of traditional recovery activities...

  14. Supported Decision-Making from Theory to Practice: Implementing the Right to Enjoy Legal Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosie Harding

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The right to equal recognition before the law, protected by Article 12 of the United Nations (UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD, mandates the use of supported decision-making practices to enable disabled people, particularly those with intellectual and/or psychosocial disabilities, to enjoy their legal capacity. Finding ways to translate this theoretical mandate into practice poses a number of particularly challenging socio-legal issues, which this research seeks to address. The English Mental Capacity Act 2005 (MCA sets out a right to support with decision-making (s.1(3, underpinned by a presumption of capacity (s.1(2. Qualitative interviews with intellectually disabled people, their supporters, and care and support professionals were undertaken to explore how disabled people make decisions in their everyday lives, the kinds of support they need, and the strategies for supported decision-making used in practice. Analysis of these interviews suggests that a range of supported decision-making techniques have been developed in practice and are effective in supporting everyday preferences and some life choices. Paradoxically, it appears that as decisions become more complex, the support available to disabled people reduces. Specifically, much less support is available for more difficult decisions around finances, healthcare and legal matters. We argue that the reasons for this are due to a web of regulatory, social and policy issues. We conclude that implementing the right to enjoy legal capacity through supported decision-making will require a combination of regulatory reform, social change and policy amendment.

  15. New Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making Method Based on Vague Set Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Kuo-Sui Lin

    2016-01-01

    In light of the deficiencies and limitations for existing score functions, Lin has proposed a more effective and reasonable new score function for measuring vague values. By using Lin’s score function and a new weighted aggregation score function, an algorithm for multi-criteria group decision-making method was proposed to solve vague set based group decision-making problems under vague environments. Finally, a numerical example was illustrated to show the effectiveness of the proposed multi-...

  16. A Conceptual Framework Examining The Antecedents Of Career Decisiveness 
Using Motivation Systems Theory

    OpenAIRE

    CHATTERJEE, Srabasti

    2015-01-01

    An extensive body of vocational research has been dedicated to the topic of career-decision making behavior. Work is integral to human functioning, and all psychologists need to understand the role of work in people’s lives. Understanding factors influencing work choices and helping individuals effectively make career decisions is the focus of vocational psychologists. The external changes, such as shifts in the economy and labour force, as well as initiatives within the field are challenging...

  17. Decision Making in Reference to Model of Marketing Predictive Analytics – Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Tarka

    2014-03-01

    understand the inner working of the model. Originality: Authors describe the importance of analytics which enhance the decisions that the company makes as it executes strategies and plans, so that the company can be more effective and achieve better results. The key factor that enables to execute marketing strategies accurately and build competitive advantage in the future includes predictive modeling. The ability to predict probable futures allows us to shape the future, rather than merely survive whatever it brings.

  18. When Irrational Biases Are Smart: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory of Complex Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Reyna

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available I take a decision-making approach to consider ways of addressing the “unresolved and dramatic problems in the world”. Traditional approaches to good decision-making are reviewed. These approaches reduce complex decisions to tradeoffs between magnitudes of probabilities, and outcomes in which the quantity and precision of information are key to making good decisions. I discuss a contrasting framework, called “fuzzy-trace theory”, which emphasizes understanding the simple gist of options and applying core social and moral values. Importantly, the tendency to rely on meaningful but simple gist increases from childhood to adulthood (or, in adulthood, as people gain experience in a domain, so that specific irrational biases grow with knowledge and experience. As predicted theoretically, these violations of rationality in the traditional sense are associated empirically with healthier and more adaptive outcomes. Thus, interventions that help decision makers understand the essential gist of their options and how it connects to core values are practical approaches to reducing “unresolved and dramatic problems in the world” one decision at a time.

  19. Game theory at work: OR models and algorythms to solve multi-actor heterogeneous decision problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sáiz Pérez, M.E.

    2007-01-01

    Key words: Game theory, operations research, optimisation methods, algorithms. The objective of this thesis is to explore the potential of combining Game Theory (GT) models with Operations Research (OR) modelling. This includes development of algorithms to solve these complex OR models for

  20. Emotion, rationality, and decision-making: how to link affective and social neuroscience with social theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verweij, Marco; Senior, Timothy J; Domínguez D, Juan F; Turner, Robert

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we argue for a stronger engagement between concepts in affective and social neuroscience on the one hand, and theories from the fields of anthropology, economics, political science, and sociology on the other. Affective and social neuroscience could provide an additional assessment of social theories. We argue that some of the most influential social theories of the last four decades-rational choice theory, behavioral economics, and post-structuralism-contain assumptions that are inconsistent with key findings in affective and social neuroscience. We also show that another approach from the social sciences-plural rationality theory-shows greater compatibility with these findings. We further claim that, in their turn, social theories can strengthen affective and social neuroscience. The former can provide more precise formulations of the social phenomena that neuroscientific models have targeted, can help neuroscientists who build these models become more aware of their social and cultural biases, and can even improve the models themselves. To illustrate, we show how plural rationality theory can be used to further specify and test the somatic marker hypothesis. Thus, we aim to accelerate the much-needed merger of social theories with affective and social neuroscience.

  1. Applying Classical Ethical Theories to Ethical Decision Making in Public Relations: Perrier's Product Recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Cornelius B.

    1994-01-01

    Links ethical theories to the management of the product recall of the Perrier Group of America. Argues for a nonsituational theory-based eclectic approach to ethics in public relations to enable public relations practitioners, as strategic communication managers, to respond effectively to potentially unethical organizational actions. (SR)

  2. Ethical Decision Making in Academic Dishonesty with Application of Modified Theory of Planned Behavior: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Chan Ling; Othman, Jamilah; D'Silva, Jeffrey Lawrence; Omar, Zoharah

    2014-01-01

    This conceptual paper studies the application of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TBP) in academic dishonesty with the mediating variable of ethical ideologies. The study reviews literature on the Theory of Planned Behavior and past studies pertaining to academic dishonesty. The paper analyses the relationship of the variables of TPB on academic…

  3. Social Class and Work-Related Decisions: Measurement, Theory, and Social Mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouad, Nadya A.; Fitzpatrick, Mary E.

    2009-01-01

    In this reaction to Diemer and Ali's article, "Integrating Social Class Into Vocational Psychology: Theory and Practice Implications," the authors point out concerns with binary schema of social class, highlight the contribution of social class to the social cognitive career theory, argue for a more nuanced look at ways that work…

  4. Organ Donation in the 50+ Age Demographic: Survey Results on Decision Rationale and Information Preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tartaglia, Alexander; Dodd-McCue, Diane; Myer, Kevin A; Mullins, Andrew

    2016-09-01

    The rate of organ donation by older potential donors is significantly declining even though recent studies show positive clinical outcomes with organs transplanted from older donors. This study examined the 50+ age demographic to identify the rationale for donation decisions, preferred media methods of donation information delivery, and responsiveness to an age-tailored donation message. Results from 579 surveys, 87% from the 50+ age demographic, found respondents prone to self-select themselves as medically ineligible based on current medication and health status, even though they might be medically suitable donors. Their incentive to pursue additional information on donation is limited except when motivated by personal accounts within their families and communities. In addition, even when computer literate, they continue to favor the printed or spoken word for donation information delivery. The results suggest an opportunity for those working with older adults to develop more personalized, localized donation education programs targeting this age demographic. © The Author(s) 2014.

  5. Decontamination of steam generators at Loviisa NPS - The decision making and the results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahlstroem, Bjoern G.

    1984-01-01

    In 1980, during the annual inspections at Loviisa 1, 440 MWe PWR unit, some minor faults in the welding seams of the water chambers in two of the six steam generators were indicated. This led to enlarged inspection work and to thousands of working hours inside the steam generators. The plant had been three years in operation, so the dose rates in the steam generators were rather high. In this case it turned out, that a formal radiation protection optimization procedure would not give the answer on how to go ahead, as there were several practical and psychological factors influencing the decision making process. Anyhow, the result was that a decontamination apparatus was urgently planned and constructed, and advice on tested decontamination chemicals was received from the plant supplier. Using the decontamination machine with alternating basic and acid solutions, a decontamination factor of DF = 300 was reached, and the repair work could be performed without any restrictions on working time. This paper points out some limiting factors in the decision making process and describes the decontamination equipment, the decontamination solutions and the programme. The cost per saved collective dose unit is also calculated. (author)

  6. Factors Involved in Juveniles' Decisions about Crime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimler, Edward; Beach, Lee Roy

    1981-01-01

    Investigated whether delinquency is the result of a rational decision. The Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) model from decision theory was used with male juvenile offenders (N=45) as the model of the decision process. Results showed that the SEU model predicted 62.7 percent of the subjects' decisions. (Author/RC)

  7. Exact Results for 't Hooft Loops in Gauge Theories on S^4

    CERN Document Server

    Gomis, Jaume; Pestun, Vasily

    2012-01-01

    The path integral of a general N=2 supersymmetric gauge theory on S^4 is exactly evaluated in the presence of a supersymmetric 't Hooft loop operator. The result we find - obtained using localization techniques - captures all perturbative quantum corrections as well as non-perturbative effects due to instantons and monopoles, which are supported at the north pole, south pole and equator of S^4. As a by-product, our gauge theory calculations successfully confirm the predictions made for 't Hooft loops obtained from the calculation of topological defect correlators in Liouville/Toda conformal field theory.

  8. The impact of radiologists' expertise on screen results decisions in a CT lung cancer screening trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuvelmans, Marjolein A.; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; Oudkerk, Matthijs; Jong, Pim A. de; Mali, Willem P.; Groen, Harry J.M.

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate the impact of radiological expertise on screen result decisions in a CT lung cancer screening trial. In the NELSON lung cancer screening trial, the baseline CT result was based on the largest lung nodule's volume. The protocol allowed radiologists to manually adjust screen results in cases of high suspicion of benign or malignant nodule nature. Participants whose baseline CT result was based on a solid or part-solid nodule were included in this study. Adjustments by radiologists at baseline were evaluated. Histology was the reference for diagnosis or to confirm benignity and stability on subsequent CT examinations. A total of 3,318 participants (2,796 male, median age 58.0 years) were included. In 195 participants (5.9 %) the initial baseline screen result was adjusted by the radiologist. Adjustment was downwards from positive or indeterminate to negative in two and 119 participants, respectively, and from positive to indeterminate in 65 participants. None of these nodules turned out to be malignant. In 9/195 participants (4.6 %) the screen result was adjusted upwards from negative to indeterminate or indeterminate to positive; two nodules were malignant. In one in 20 cases of baseline lung cancer screening, nodules were reclassified by the radiologist, leading to a reduction of false-positive screen results. (orig.)

  9. Emotion, rationality, and decision-making: how to link affective and social neuroscience with social theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verweij, Marco; Senior, Timothy J.; Domínguez D., Juan F.; Turner, Robert

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we argue for a stronger engagement between concepts in affective and social neuroscience on the one hand, and theories from the fields of anthropology, economics, political science, and sociology on the other. Affective and social neuroscience could provide an additional assessment of social theories. We argue that some of the most influential social theories of the last four decades—rational choice theory, behavioral economics, and post-structuralism—contain assumptions that are inconsistent with key findings in affective and social neuroscience. We also show that another approach from the social sciences—plural rationality theory—shows greater compatibility with these findings. We further claim that, in their turn, social theories can strengthen affective and social neuroscience. The former can provide more precise formulations of the social phenomena that neuroscientific models have targeted, can help neuroscientists who build these models become more aware of their social and cultural biases, and can even improve the models themselves. To illustrate, we show how plural rationality theory can be used to further specify and test the somatic marker hypothesis. Thus, we aim to accelerate the much-needed merger of social theories with affective and social neuroscience. PMID:26441506

  10. Emotion, rationality and decision-making: How to link affective and social neuroscience with social theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco eVerweij

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we argue for a stronger engagement between concepts in affective and social neuroscience on the one hand, and theories from the fields of anthropology, economics, political science and sociology on the other. Affective and social neuroscience could provide an additional assessment of social theories. We argue that some of the most influential social theories of the last four decades –rational choice theory, behavioral economics, and post-structuralism– contain assumptions that are inconsistent with key findings in affective and social neuroscience. We also show that another approach from the social sciences –plural rationality theory– shows greater compatibility with these findings. We further claim that, in their turn, social theories can strengthen affective and social neuroscience. The former can provide more precise formulations of the social phenomena that neuroscientific models have targeted, can help neuroscientists who build these models become more aware of their social and cultural biases, and can even improve the models themselves. To illustrate, we show how plural rationality theory can be used to further specify and test the somatic marker hypothesis. Thus, we aim to accelerate the much-needed merger of social theories with affective and social neuroscience.

  11. Shared decision-making behaviours in health professionals: a systematic review of studies based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson-Leduc, Philippe; Clayman, Marla L; Turcotte, Stéphane; Légaré, France

    2015-10-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) requires health professionals to change their practice. Socio-cognitive theories, such as the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), provide the needed theoretical underpinnings for designing behaviour change interventions. We systematically reviewed studies that used the TPB to assess SDM behaviours in health professionals to explore how theory is being used to explain influences on SDM intentions and/or behaviours, and which construct is identified as most influential. We searched PsycINFO, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Index to theses, Proquest dissertations and Current Contents for all years up to April 2012. We included all studies in French or English that used the TPB and related socio-cognitive theories to assess SDM behavioural intentions or behaviours in health professionals. We used Makoul & Clayman's integrative SDM model to identify SDM behaviours. We extracted study characteristics, nature of the socio-cognitive theory, SDM behaviour, and theory-based determinants of the SDM behavioural intention or behaviour. We computed simple frequency counts. Of 12,388 titles, we assessed 136 full-text articles for eligibility. We kept 20 eligible studies, all published in English between 1996 and 2012. Studies were conducted in Canada (n = 8), the USA (n = 6), the Netherlands (n = 3), the United Kingdom (n = 2) and Australia (n = 1). The determinant most frequently and significantly associated with intention was the subjective norm (n = 15/21 analyses). There was great variance in the way socio-cognitive theories predicted SDM intention and/or behaviour, but frequency of significance indicated that subjective norm was most influential. © 2014 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Finding common ground to achieve a "good death": family physicians working with substitute decision-makers of dying patients. A qualitative grounded theory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Amy; Manca, Donna

    2013-01-22

    Substitute decision-makers are integral to the care of dying patients and make many healthcare decisions for patients. Unfortunately, conflict between physicians and surrogate decision-makers is not uncommon in end-of-life care and this could contribute to a "bad death" experience for the patient and family. We aim to describe Canadian family physicians' experiences of conflict with substitute decision-makers of dying patients to identify factors that may facilitate or hinder the end-of-life decision-making process. This insight will help determine how to best manage these complex situations, ultimately improving the overall care of dying patients. Grounded Theory methodology was used with semi-structured interviews of family physicians in Edmonton, Canada, who experienced conflict with substitute decision-makers of dying patients. Purposeful sampling included maximum variation and theoretical sampling strategies. Interviews were audio-taped, and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts, field notes and memos were coded using the constant-comparative method to identify key concepts until saturation was achieved and a theoretical framework emerged. Eleven family physicians with a range of 3 to 40 years in clinical practice participated.The family physicians expressed a desire to achieve a "good death" and described their role in positively influencing the experience of death.Finding Common Ground to Achieve a "Good Death" for the Patient emerged as an important process which includes 1) Building Mutual Trust and Rapport through identifying key players and delivering manageable amounts of information, 2) Understanding One Another through active listening and ultimately, and 3) Making Informed, Shared Decisions. Facilitators and barriers to achieving Common Ground were identified. Barriers were linked to conflict. The inability to resolve an overt conflict may lead to an impasse at any point. A process for Resolving an Impasse is described. A novel framework for developing

  13. Decision model incorporating utility theory and measurement of social values applied to nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Litchfield, J.W.; Hansen, J.V.; Beck, L.C.

    1975-07-01

    A generalized computer-based decision analysis model was developed and tested. Several alternative concepts for ultimate disposal have already been developed; however, significant research is still required before any of these can be implemented. To make a choice based on technical estimates of the costs, short-term safety, long-term safety, and accident detection and recovery requires estimating the relative importance of each of these factors or attributes. These relative importance estimates primarily involve social values and therefore vary from one individual to the next. The approach used was to sample various public groups to determine the relative importance of each of the factors to the public. These estimates of importance weights were combined in a decision analysis model with estimates, furnished by technical experts, of the degree to which each alternative concept achieves each of the criteria. This model then integrates the two separate and unique sources of information and provides the decision maker with information as to the preferences and concerns of the public as well as the technical areas within each concept which need further research. The model can rank the alternatives using sampled public opinion and techno-economic data. This model provides a decision maker with a structured approach to subdividing complex alternatives into a set of more easily considered attributes, measuring the technical performance of each alternative relative to each attribute, estimating relevant social values, and assimilating quantitative information in a rational manner to estimate total value for each alternative. Because of the explicit nature of this decision analysis, the decision maker can select a specific alternative supported by clear documentation and justification for his assumptions and estimates. (U.S.)

  14. Negotiated reorienting: a grounded theory of nurses' end-of-life decision-making in the intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Ann; Bousso, Regina Szylit; McCarthy, Joan; Kohlen, Helen; Andrews, Tom; Paganini, Maria Cristina; Abu-El-Noor, Nasser Ibrahim; Cox, Anna; Haas, Margit; Arber, Anne; Abu-El-Noor, Mysoon Khalil; Baliza, Michelle Freire; Padilha, Katia Grillo

    2015-04-01

    Intensive care units (ICUs) focus on treatment for those who are critically ill and interventions to prolong life. Ethical issues arise when decisions have to be made regarding the withdrawal and withholding of life-sustaining treatment and the shift to comfort and palliative care. These issues are particularly challenging for nurses when there are varying degrees of uncertainty regarding prognosis. Little is known about nurses' end-of-life (EoL) decision-making practice across cultures. To understand nurses' EoL decision-making practices in ICUs in different cultural contexts. We collected and analysed qualitative data using Grounded Theory. Interviews were conducted with experienced ICU nurses in university or hospital premises in five countries: Brazil, England, Germany, Ireland and Palestine. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 51 nurses (10 in Brazil, 9 in England, 10 in Germany, 10 in Ireland and 12 nurses in Palestine). They were purposefully and theoretically selected to include nurses having a variety of characteristics and experiences concerning end-of-life (EoL) decision-making. The study used grounded theory to inform data collection and analysis. Interviews were facilitated by using key questions. The comparative analysis of the data within and across data generated by the different research teams enabled researchers to develop a deeper understanding of EoL decision-making practices in the ICU. Ethical approval was granted in each of the participating countries and voluntary informed consent obtained from each participant. The core category that emerged was 'negotiated reorienting'. Whilst nurses do not make the 'ultimate' EoL decisions, they engage in two core practices: consensus seeking (involving coaxing, information cuing and voice enabling); and emotional holding (creating time-space and comfort giving). There was consensus regarding the core concept and core practices employed by nurses in the ICUs in the five countries. However

  15. BEHAVIORAL DECISION-THEORY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT - ASSESSMENT AND RESOLUTION OF 4 SURVIVAL DILEMMAS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VLEK, C; KEREN, G

    Environmental degradation and the call for 'sustainable development' provide an extended context and new challenges for decision-theoretic research on risk assessment and management. We characterize environmental risk management as the resolution of four different types of 'survival' dilemmas in

  16. Decision-making in real estate development : application of game theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clumac, B.; Blokhuis, E.G.J.; Han, Q.

    2011-01-01

    Decision making in real estate development projects has generally undergone a number of important changes over the last decades. This transition represented a shift from governmentally dominated top-down spatial planning to bottom-up, public-private engagement schemes in real estate development (Tam

  17. Theory of multinationals' choice of technique and locational decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Meza, D.

    1979-01-01

    A neoclassical explanation is presented of the failure of multinational corporations (MNCs) to adapt their technology in low-wage countries. MNCs are found to employ more labor-intensive techniques and pay lower wages than companies serving only domestic markets if transport and tariff costs are present. Product locational decisions are also analyzed. 6 references.

  18. Entropy production rate as a criterion for inconsistency in decision theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Purushottam D.

    2018-05-01

    Individual and group decisions are complex, often involving choosing an apt alternative from a multitude of options. Evaluating pairwise comparisons breaks down such complex decision problems into tractable ones. Pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) are regularly used to solve multiple-criteria decision-making problems, for example, using Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) framework. However, there are two significant drawbacks of using PCMs. First, humans evaluate PCMs in an inconsistent manner. Second, not all entries of a large PCM can be reliably filled by human decision makers. We address these two issues by first establishing a novel connection between PCMs and time-irreversible Markov processes. Specifically, we show that every PCM induces a family of dissipative maximum path entropy random walks (MERW) over the set of alternatives. We show that only ‘consistent’ PCMs correspond to detailed balanced MERWs. We identify the non-equilibrium entropy production in the induced MERWs as a metric of inconsistency of the underlying PCMs. Notably, the entropy production satisfies all of the recently laid out criteria for reasonable consistency indices. We also propose an approach to use incompletely filled PCMs in AHP. Potential future avenues are discussed as well.

  19. The Family-Relatedness of Work Decisions: A Framework and Agenda for Theory and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhaus, Jeffrey H.; Powell, Gary N.

    2012-01-01

    Due to global trends such as the increased labor force participation of women, the growing presence of dual-earner couples and single parents in the labor force, and changing values regarding the importance of life balance, individuals' work decisions are being increasingly influenced by family considerations. However, the "family-relatedness" of…

  20. Students' Ethical Decision-Making in an Information Technology Context: A Theory of Planned Behavior Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riemenschneider, Cynthia K.; Leonard, Lori N. K.; Manly, Tracy S.

    2011-01-01

    Business educators have increased the focus on ethics in the classroom. In order for students to become ethical professionals, they must first be held to an ethical standard as students. As information technology continues to permeate every aspect of students' lives, it becomes increasingly important to understand student decision-making in this…

  1. Democratic population decisions result in robust policy-gradient learning: a parametric study with GPU simulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Richmond

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available High performance computing on the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU is an emerging field driven by the promise of high computational power at a low cost. However, GPU programming is a non-trivial task and moreover architectural limitations raise the question of whether investing effort in this direction may be worthwhile. In this work, we use GPU programming to simulate a two-layer network of Integrate-and-Fire neurons with varying degrees of recurrent connectivity and investigate its ability to learn a simplified navigation task using a policy-gradient learning rule stemming from Reinforcement Learning. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we want to support the use of GPUs in the field of Computational Neuroscience. Second, using GPU computing power, we investigate the conditions under which the said architecture and learning rule demonstrate best performance. Our work indicates that networks featuring strong Mexican-Hat-shaped recurrent connections in the top layer, where decision making is governed by the formation of a stable activity bump in the neural population (a "non-democratic" mechanism, achieve mediocre learning results at best. In absence of recurrent connections, where all neurons "vote" independently ("democratic" for a decision via population vector readout, the task is generally learned better and more robustly. Our study would have been extremely difficult on a desktop computer without the use of GPU programming. We present the routines developed for this purpose and show that a speed improvement of 5x up to 42x is provided versus optimised Python code. The higher speed is achieved when we exploit the parallelism of the GPU in the search of learning parameters. This suggests that efficient GPU programming can significantly reduce the time needed for simulating networks of spiking neurons, particularly when multiple parameter configurations are investigated.

  2. Cognitive decision errors and organization vulnerabilities in nuclear power plant safety management: Modeling using the TOGA meta-theory framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappelli, M.; Gadomski, A. M.; Sepiellis, M.; Wronikowska, M. W.

    2012-01-01

    In the field of nuclear power plant (NPP) safety modeling, the perception of the role of socio-cognitive engineering (SCE) is continuously increasing. Today, the focus is especially on the identification of human and organization decisional errors caused by operators and managers under high-risk conditions, as evident by analyzing reports on nuclear incidents occurred in the past. At present, the engineering and social safety requirements need to enlarge their domain of interest in such a way to include all possible losses generating events that could be the consequences of an abnormal state of a NPP. Socio-cognitive modeling of Integrated Nuclear Safety Management (INSM) using the TOGA meta-theory has been discussed during the ICCAP 2011 Conference. In this paper, more detailed aspects of the cognitive decision-making and its possible human errors and organizational vulnerability are presented. The formal TOGA-based network model for cognitive decision-making enables to indicate and analyze nodes and arcs in which plant operators and managers errors may appear. The TOGA's multi-level IPK (Information, Preferences, Knowledge) model of abstract intelligent agents (AIAs) is applied. In the NPP context, super-safety approach is also discussed, by taking under consideration unexpected events and managing them from a systemic perspective. As the nature of human errors depends on the specific properties of the decision-maker and the decisional context of operation, a classification of decision-making using IPK is suggested. Several types of initial situations of decision-making useful for the diagnosis of NPP operators and managers errors are considered. The developed models can be used as a basis for applications to NPP educational or engineering simulators to be used for training the NPP executive staff. (authors)

  3. Cognitive decision errors and organization vulnerabilities in nuclear power plant safety management: Modeling using the TOGA meta-theory framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cappelli, M. [UTFISST, ENEA Casaccia, via Anguillarese 301, Rome (Italy); Gadomski, A. M. [ECONA, Centro Interuniversitario Elaborazione Cognitiva Sistemi Naturali e Artificiali, via dei Marsi 47, Rome (Italy); Sepiellis, M. [UTFISST, ENEA Casaccia, via Anguillarese 301, Rome (Italy); Wronikowska, M. W. [UTFISST, ENEA Casaccia, via Anguillarese 301, Rome (Italy); Poznan School of Social Sciences (Poland)

    2012-07-01

    In the field of nuclear power plant (NPP) safety modeling, the perception of the role of socio-cognitive engineering (SCE) is continuously increasing. Today, the focus is especially on the identification of human and organization decisional errors caused by operators and managers under high-risk conditions, as evident by analyzing reports on nuclear incidents occurred in the past. At present, the engineering and social safety requirements need to enlarge their domain of interest in such a way to include all possible losses generating events that could be the consequences of an abnormal state of a NPP. Socio-cognitive modeling of Integrated Nuclear Safety Management (INSM) using the TOGA meta-theory has been discussed during the ICCAP 2011 Conference. In this paper, more detailed aspects of the cognitive decision-making and its possible human errors and organizational vulnerability are presented. The formal TOGA-based network model for cognitive decision-making enables to indicate and analyze nodes and arcs in which plant operators and managers errors may appear. The TOGA's multi-level IPK (Information, Preferences, Knowledge) model of abstract intelligent agents (AIAs) is applied. In the NPP context, super-safety approach is also discussed, by taking under consideration unexpected events and managing them from a systemic perspective. As the nature of human errors depends on the specific properties of the decision-maker and the decisional context of operation, a classification of decision-making using IPK is suggested. Several types of initial situations of decision-making useful for the diagnosis of NPP operators and managers errors are considered. The developed models can be used as a basis for applications to NPP educational or engineering simulators to be used for training the NPP executive staff. (authors)

  4. The psychology of doing nothing : Forms of decision avoidance result from reason and emotion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anderson, C.

    2003-01-01

    Several independent lines of research bear on the question of why individuals avoid decisions by postponing them, failing to act, or accepting the status quo. This review relates findings across several different disciplines and uncovers 4 decision avoidance effects that offer insight into this

  5. Under which conditions, additional monitoring data are worth gathering for improving decision making? Application of the VOI theory in the Bayesian Event Tree eruption forecasting framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy

    2016-04-01

    Standard and new generation of monitoring observations provide in almost real-time important information about the evolution of the volcanic system. These observations are used to update the model and contribute to a better hazard assessment and to support decision making concerning potential evacuation. The framework BET_EF (based on Bayesian Event Tree) developed by INGV enables dealing with the integration of information from monitoring with the prospect of decision making. Using this framework, the objectives of the present work are i. to propose a method to assess the added value of information (within the Value Of Information (VOI) theory) from monitoring; ii. to perform sensitivity analysis on the different parameters that influence the VOI from monitoring. VOI consists in assessing the possible increase in expected value provided by gathering information, for instance through monitoring. Basically, the VOI is the difference between the value with information and the value without additional information in a Cost-Benefit approach. This theory is well suited to deal with situations that can be represented in the form of a decision tree such as the BET_EF tool. Reference values and ranges of variation (for sensitivity analysis) were defined for input parameters, based on data from the MESIMEX exercise (performed at Vesuvio volcano in 2006). Complementary methods for sensitivity analyses were implemented: local, global using Sobol' indices and regional using Contribution to Sample Mean and Variance plots. The results (specific to the case considered) obtained with the different techniques are in good agreement and enable answering the following questions: i. Which characteristics of monitoring are important for early warning (reliability)? ii. How do experts' opinions influence the hazard assessment and thus the decision? Concerning the characteristics of monitoring, the more influent parameters are the means rather than the variances for the case considered

  6. Conceptual and Empirical Approaches to Financial Decision-making by Older Adults: Results from a Financial Decision-making Rating Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenberg, Peter A; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Ficker, Lisa J; Gross, Evan; Rahman-Filipiak, Analise; Teresi, Jeanne A

    2018-01-01

    The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to empirically test the conceptual model proposed by the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS); (2) to examine the psychometric properties of the LFDRS contextual factors in financial decision-making by investigating both the reliability and convergent validity of the subscales and total scale, and (3) extending previous work on the scale through the collection of normative data on financial decision-making. A convenience sample of 200 independent function and community dwelling older adults underwent cognitive and financial management testing and were interviewed using the LFDRS. Confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency measures, and hierarchical regression were used in a sample of 200 community-dwelling older adults, all of whom were making or had recently made a significant financial decision. Results confirmed the scale's reliability and supported the conceptual model. Convergent validity analyses indicate that as hypothesized, cognition is a significant predictor of risk scores. Financial management scores, however, were not predictive of decision-making risk scores. The psychometric properties of the LFDRS support the scale's use as it was proposed. The LFDRS instructions and scale are provided for clinicians to use in financial capacity assessments.

  7. Comparison between a diagrammatic theory for the BCS-BEC crossover and quantum Monte Carlo results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pieri, P.; Pisani, L.; Strinati, G.C.

    2005-01-01

    Predictions for the chemical potential and the excitation gap recently obtained by our diagrammatic theory for the Bardeen-Cooper-Schreiffer-Bose-Einstein Condensation crossover in the superfluid phase are compared with quantum Monte Carlo results at zero temperature now available in the literature. A remarkable agreement is found between the results obtained by the two approaches

  8. How Do Thoughts, Emotions, and Decisions Align? A New Way to Examine Theory of Mind in Middle Childhood and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagattuta, Kristin Hansen

    2016-01-01

    The current study examined 4- to 10-year-olds’ and adults’ (N = 280) tendency to connect people’s thoughts, emotions, and decisions into valence-matched mental state triads (thought valence = emotion valence = decision valence; such as, anticipate something bad + feel worried + avoid) and valence-matched mental state dyads (thought-emotion, thought-decision, and emotion-decision). Participants heard vignettes about focal characters who re-encountered individuals who had previously harmed them twice, helped them twice, or both harmed and helped them. Baseline trials involved no past experience. Children and adults predicted the focal characters’ thoughts (anticipate something good or bad), emotions (feel happy or worried), and decisions (go near or stay away). Results showed significant increases between 4 and 10 years in the formation of valence-matched mental state triads and dyads, with thoughts and emotions most often aligned by valence. We also documented age-related improvement in awareness that uncertain situations elicit less valence-consistent mental states than more certain situations, with females expecting weaker coherence among characters’ thoughts, emotions, and decisions than males. Controlling for age and sex, individuals with stronger executive function (working memory and inhibitory control) predicted more valence-aligned mental states. These findings add to the emerging literature on development and individual differences in children’s reasoning about mental states and emotions during middle childhood and beyond. PMID:27017060

  9. Joint global optimization of tomographic data based on particle swarm optimization and decision theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paasche, H.; Tronicke, J.

    2012-04-01

    optimality of the found solutions can be made. Identification of the leading particle traditionally requires a costly combination of ranking and niching techniques. In our approach, we use a decision rule under uncertainty to identify the currently leading particle of the swarm. In doing so, we consider the different objectives of our optimization problem as competing agents with partially conflicting interests. Analysis of the maximin fitness function allows for robust and cheap identification of the currently leading particle. The final optimization result comprises a set of possible models spread along the Pareto front. For convex Pareto fronts, solution density is expected to be maximal in the region ideally compromising all objectives, i.e. the region of highest curvature.

  10. The psychological behaviorism theory of pain and the placebo: its principles and results of research application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staats, Peter S; Hekmat, Hamid; Staats, Arthur W

    2004-01-01

    The psychological behaviorism theory of pain unifies biological, behavioral, and cognitive-behavioral theories of pain and facilitates development of a common vocabulary for pain research across disciplines. Pain investigation proceeds in seven interacting realms: basic biology, conditioned learning, language cognition, personality differences, pain behavior, the social environment, and emotions. Because pain is an emotional response, examining the bidirectional impact of emotion is pivotal to understanding pain. Emotion influences each of the other areas of interest and causes the impact of each factor to amplify or diminish in an additive fashion. Research based on this theory of pain has revealed the ameliorating impact on pain of (1) improving mood by engaging in pleasant sexual fantasies, (2) reducing anxiety, and (3) reducing anger through various techniques. Application of the theory to therapy improved the results of treatment of osteoarthritic pain. The psychological behaviorism theory of the placebo considers the placebo a stimulus conditioned to elicit a positive emotional response. This response is most powerful if it is elicited by conditioned language. Research based on this theory of the placebo that pain is ameliorated by a placebo suggestion and augmented by a nocebo suggestion and that pain sensitivity and pain anxiety increase susceptibility to a placebo.

  11. Towards a Global Comprehensive Context-driven and Decision-focused Theory and Method for a New Political Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winston P. Nagan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There is currently significant dissatisfaction with conventional economic theory. The unreliability of conventional theory as a predictor of future economic possibilities of catastrophes emphasizes the need for a new paradigm of political economy. This paper provides a capsule of some of the important limitations and consequences of the “old” paradigm. It proposes the necessary elements of a new paradigm and it seeks to locate the new paradigm of political economy in terms of its global reach. This requires a richer contextual approach, with the tools of contextual mapping. It has as well a focus on the global process of effective power and the emerging rule of law based constitutive processes. This is a key to the role of decision and the architecture of decision-making in political economy. We conclude with the global to local implications of the Vicos Experiment in Peru. Finally, we stress the wider lens of focus to identify the real and not the illusory generation of value. The implications here facilitate real global democratization.

  12. Newsvendor Models for Innovative Products with One-Shot Decision Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Peijun; Ma, Xiuyan

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, newsvendor problems for innovative products are analyzed. Becausethe product is new, no relevant historical data is available for statistical demand analysis. Insteadof using the probability distribution, the possibility distribution is utilized to characterize theuncertainty of the demand. We consider products whose life cycles are expected to be smallerthan the procurement lead times. Determining optimal order quantities of such products is atypical one-shot decision problem ...

  13. Financing Decisions of Companies Listed in the Different Segments of Corporate Governance of BM&FBovespa According to Pecking Order Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Tani, Bruna Bagalhi; Albanez, Tatiana

    2016-01-01

    Among the various theories about capital structure is Pecking Order theory, which establishes a hierarchy of preferences for sources of funding due to the existence of information asymmetry. In this paper, we seek to verify if this theory applies to the financing decisions of Brazilian companies that are listed in the different segments of corporate governance of BMF&Bovespa, analyzing whether, in the 2010-2014 period, a higher level of corporate governance implies lower adherence to this...

  14. Financing Decisions of Companies Listed in the Different Segments of Corporate Governance of BM&FBovespa According to Pecking Order Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Tani, Bruna Bagalhi; Albanez, Tatiana

    2016-01-01

    Among the various theories about capital structure is Pecking Order theory, which establishes a hierarchy of preferences for sources of funding due to the existence of information asymmetry. In this paper, we seek to verify if this theory applies to the financing decisions of Brazilian companies that are listed in the different segments of corporate governance of BMF&Bovespa, analyzing whether, in the 2010-2014 period, a higher level of corporate governance implies lower adherence to this the...

  15. Shared decision making in preventive care in Switzerland: From theory to action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Kevin; Auer, Reto; Cornuz, Jacques

    2017-06-01

    Switzerland with its decentralized, liberal health system and its tradition of direct democracy may be an ideal place for shared decision making (SDM) to take root organically, rather than using top-down regulations seen in other countries. There are now multiple directives and programmes in place to encourage SDM, with the creation of several decision aids and specific training programs in the five Swiss medical schools. There has been an emphasis on preventive care, with the integration of patient preference into an organized colorectal cancer screening program, clear recommendations for prostate cancer screening, and inroads into the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Focusing on the experience of the University of Lausanne, we describe multiple approaches being taken to teaching SDM and the local development of decision aids, drawing on international experience but tailored to local needs. Efforts are being made to further involve patients in not only SDM, but also associated research and quality improvement projects. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  16. An Integrated Theory of Attention and Decision Making in Visual Signal Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Philip L.; Ratcliff, Roger

    2009-01-01

    The simplest attentional task, detecting a cued stimulus in an otherwise empty visual field, produces complex patterns of performance. Attentional cues interact with backward masks and with spatial uncertainty, and there is a dissociation in the effects of these variables on accuracy and on response time. A computational theory of performance in…

  17. Adolescents' Decisions About Verbal and Physical Aggression: An Application of the Theory of Reasoned Action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberto, Anthony J.; Meyer, Gary; Boster, Franklin J.; Roberto, Heather L.

    2003-01-01

    Examines the ability of the theory of reasoned action to explain and predict adolescents' verbal (i.e., insulting) and physical (i.e., fighting) aggression, as well as behaviors that encourage aggression such as watching a fight or telling others about a fight that is going to happen. Reveals that attitudes and subjective norms predicted…

  18. Modeling Theory of Mind and Cognitive Appraisal with Decision-Theoretic Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-07

    the bully believing himself as powerful). The conditions may also be more complicated combinations of these basic triggers (e.g., a conjunction of...Press, 1995. [49] A. Whiten , editor. Natural Theories of Mind. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, UK, 1991. 30

  19. Ethical theory and stakeholder-related decisions: The role of stakeholder culture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.M. Jones; W.A. Felps (William); G. Bigley

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe use convergent elements of major ethical theories to create a typology of corporate stakeholder cultures—the aspects of organizational culture consisting of the beliefs, values, and practices that have evolved for solving problems and otherwise managing stakeholder relationships. We

  20. From electroweak theory to the primordial universe. A synthesis of some experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ealet, A.

    2004-12-01

    Particle physic is based on a theory which can be tested on the current large colliders. Measurements are in a very good agreement with this electroweak theory and no deviation is observed to indicate new physics. What is surprising today is that none of its results agrees with what is known from our universe, neither to explain the primordial baryogenesis, neither to explain the acceleration of the expansion of the Universe. In this work, I come back on some results obtained in the Lep collider, to test the electroweak theory (Higgs and W boson production) and on some measurements of CP violation. I compare them with what can be extrapolated in term of primordial baryogenesis and dark energy density and show that there is no possible agreement in the Standard Model. I finish by some experimental and theoretical views to answer this fundamental question. (author)

  1. NRG Oncology/National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Decision-Making Project-1 Results: Decision Making in Breast Cancer Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Christine; Bandos, Hanna; Fagerlin, Angela; Bevers, Therese B; Battaglia, Tracy A; Wickerham, D Lawrence; McCaskill-Stevens, Worta J

    2017-11-01

    Selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) reduce breast cancer risk. Adoption of SERMs as prevention medication remains low. This is the first study to quantify social, cultural, and psychologic factors driving decision making regarding SERM use in women counseled on breast cancer prevention options. A survey study was conducted with women counseled by a health care provider (HCP) about SERMs. A statistical comparison of responses was performed between those who decided to use and those who decided not to use SERMs. Independent factors associated with the decision were determined using logistic regression. Of 1,023 participants, 726 made a decision: 324 (44.6%) decided to take a SERM and 402 (55.4%) decided not to. The most important factor for deciding on SERM use was the HCP recommendation. Other characteristics associated with the decision included attitudes and perceptions regarding medication intake, breast cancer worry, trust in HCP, family members with blood clots, and others' experiences with SERMs. The odds of SERM intake when HCP recommended were higher for participants with a positive attitude toward taking medications than for those with a negative attitude ( P interaction = 0.01). This study highlights the importance of social and cultural aspects for SERM decision making, most importantly personal beliefs and experiences. HCPs' recommendations play a statistically significant role in decision making and are more likely to be followed if in line with patients' attitudes. Results indicate the need for developing interventions for HCPs that not only focus on the presentation of medical information but, equally as important, on addressing patients' beliefs and experiences. Cancer Prev Res; 10(11); 625-34. ©2017 AACR See related editorial by Crew, p. 609 . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  2. Gutzwiller-RVB theory of high temperature superconductivity. Results from renormalized mean field theory and variational Monte Carlo calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edegger, B.

    2007-01-01

    We consider the theory of high temperature superconductivity from the viewpoint of a strongly correlated electron system. In particular, we discuss Gutzwiller projected wave functions, which incorporate strong correlations by prohibiting double occupancy in orbitals with strong on-site repulsion. After a general overview on high temperature superconductivity, we discuss Anderson's resonating valence bond (RVB) picture and its implementation by renormalized mean field theory (RMFT) and variational Monte Carlo (VMC) techniques. In the following, we present a detailed review on RMFT and VMC results with emphasis on our recent contributions. Especially, we are interested in spectral features of Gutzwiller-Bogolyubov quasiparticles obtained by extending VMC and RMFT techniques to excited states. We explicitly illustrate this method to determine the quasiparticle weight and provide a comparison with angle resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). We conclude by summarizing recent successes and by discussing open questions, which must be solved for a thorough understanding of high temperature superconductivity by Gutzwiller projected wave functions. (orig.)

  3. Gutzwiller-RVB theory of high temperature superconductivity. Results from renormalized mean field theory and variational Monte Carlo calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edegger, B.

    2007-08-10

    We consider the theory of high temperature superconductivity from the viewpoint of a strongly correlated electron system. In particular, we discuss Gutzwiller projected wave functions, which incorporate strong correlations by prohibiting double occupancy in orbitals with strong on-site repulsion. After a general overview on high temperature superconductivity, we discuss Anderson's resonating valence bond (RVB) picture and its implementation by renormalized mean field theory (RMFT) and variational Monte Carlo (VMC) techniques. In the following, we present a detailed review on RMFT and VMC results with emphasis on our recent contributions. Especially, we are interested in spectral features of Gutzwiller-Bogolyubov quasiparticles obtained by extending VMC and RMFT techniques to excited states. We explicitly illustrate this method to determine the quasiparticle weight and provide a comparison with angle resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). We conclude by summarizing recent successes and by discussing open questions, which must be solved for a thorough understanding of high temperature superconductivity by Gutzwiller projected wave functions. (orig.)

  4. The psychology of doing nothing: forms of decision avoidance result from reason and emotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Christopher J

    2003-01-01

    Several independent lines of research bear on the question of why individuals avoid decisions by postponing them, failing to act, or accepting the status quo. This review relates findings across several different disciplines and uncovers 4 decision avoidance effects that offer insight into this common but troubling behavior: choice deferral, status quo bias, omission bias, and inaction inertia. These findings are related by common antecedents and consequences in a rational-emotional model of the factors that predispose humans to do nothing. Prominent components of the model include cost-benefit calculations, anticipated regret, and selection difficulty. Other factors affecting decision avoidance through these key components, such as anticipatory negative emotions, decision strategies, counterfactual thinking, and preference uncertainty, are also discussed.

  5. Games and decisions introduction and critical survey

    CERN Document Server

    Luce, R Duncan

    1989-01-01

    ""The best book available for non-mathematicians."" - Contemporary Psychology.This book represents the earliest clear, detailed, precise exposition of the central ideas and results of game theory and related decision-making models - unencumbered by technical mathematical details. It offers a comprehensive, time-tested conceptual introduction, with a social science orientation, to a complex of ideas related to game theory including decision theory, modern utility theory, the theory of statistical decisions, and the theory of social welfare functions. The first three chapters provide a general i

  6. How do community pharmacists make decisions? Results of an exploratory qualitative study in Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Paul A M; Whyte, Brenna; Austin, Zubin

    2016-03-01

    As the complexity of pharmacy practice increases, pharmacists are required to make more decisions under ambiguous or information-deficient conditions. There is scant literature examining how pharmacists make decisions and what factors or values influence their choices. The objective of this exploratory research was to characterize decision-making patterns in the clinical setting of community pharmacists in Ontario. The think-aloud decision-making method was used for this study. Community pharmacists with 3 or more years' experience were presented with 2 clinical case studies dealing with challenging situations and were asked to verbally reason through their decision-making process while being probed by an interviewer for clarification, justification and further explication. Verbatim transcripts were analyzed using a protocol analysis method. A total of 12 pharmacists participated in this study. Participants experienced cognitive dissonance in attempting to reconcile their desire for a clear and confrontation-free conclusion to the case discussion and the reality of the challenge presented within each case. Strategies for resolving this cognitive dissonance included strong emphasis on the educational (rather than decision-making) role of the pharmacist, the value of strong interpersonal relationships as a way to avoid conflict and achieve desired outcomes, the desire to seek external advice or defer to others' authority to avoid making a decision and the use of strict interpretations of rules to avoid ambiguity and contextual interpretation. This research was neither representative nor generalizable but was indicative of patterns of decisional avoidance and fear of assuming responsibility for outcomes that warrant further investigation. The think-aloud method functioned effectively in this context and provided insights into pharmacists' decision-making patterns in the clinical setting. Can Pharm J (Ott) 2016;149:90-98.

  7. Perspectives of Light-Front Quantized Field Theory: Some New Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Srivastava, Prem P.

    1999-08-13

    A review of some basic topics in the light-front (LF) quantization of relativistic field theory is made. It is argued that the LF quantization is equally appropriate as the conventional one and that they lead, assuming the microcausality principle, to the same physical content. This is confirmed in the studies on the LF of the spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB), of the degenerate vacua in Schwinger model (SM) and Chiral SM (CSM), of the chiral boson theory, and of the QCD in covariant gauges among others. The discussion on the LF is more economical and more transparent than that found in the conventional equal-time quantized theory. The removal of the constraints on the LF phase space by following the Dirac method, in fact, results in a substantially reduced number of independent dynamical variables. Consequently, the descriptions of the physical Hilbert space and the vacuum structure, for example, become more tractable. In the context of the Dyson-Wick perturbation theory the relevant propagators in the front form theory are causal. The Wick rotation can then be performed to employ the Euclidean space integrals in momentum space. The lack of manifest covariance becomes tractable, and still more so if we employ, as discussed in the text, the Fourier transform of the fermionic field based on a special construction of the LF spinor. The fact that the hyperplanes x{sup {+-}} = 0 constitute characteristic surfaces of the hyperbolic partial differential equation is found irrelevant in the quantized theory; it seems sufficient to quantize the theory on one of the characteristic hyperplanes.

  8. Lithofacies identification using multiple adaptive resonance theory neural networks and group decision expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H.-C.; Kopaska-Merkel, D. C.; Chen, H.-C.; Rocky, Durrans S.

    2000-01-01

    Lithofacies identification supplies qualitative information about rocks. Lithofacies represent rock textures and are important components of hydrocarbon reservoir description. Traditional techniques of lithofacies identification from core data are costly and different geologists may provide different interpretations. In this paper, we present a low-cost intelligent system consisting of three adaptive resonance theory neural networks and a rule-based expert system to consistently and objectively identify lithofacies from well-log data. The input data are altered into different forms representing different perspectives of observation of lithofacies. Each form of input is processed by a different adaptive resonance theory neural network. Among these three adaptive resonance theory neural networks, one neural network processes the raw continuous data, another processes categorial data, and the third processes fuzzy-set data. Outputs from these three networks are then combined by the expert system using fuzzy inference to determine to which facies the input data should be assigned. Rules are prioritized to emphasize the importance of firing order. This new approach combines the learning ability of neural networks, the adaptability of fuzzy logic, and the expertise of geologists to infer facies of the rocks. This approach is applied to the Appleton Field, an oil field located in Escambia County, Alabama. The hybrid intelligence system predicts lithofacies identity from log data with 87.6% accuracy. This prediction is more accurate than those of single adaptive resonance theory networks, 79.3%, 68.0% and 66.0%, using raw, fuzzy-set, and categorical data, respectively, and by an error-backpropagation neural network, 57.3%. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Evaluation methodology based on physical security assessment results: a utility theory approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, H.A.; Olascoaga, M.T.

    1978-03-01

    This report describes an evaluation methodology which aggregates physical security assessment results for nuclear facilities into an overall measure of adequacy. This methodology utilizes utility theory and conforms to a hierarchical structure developed by the NRC. Implementation of the methodology is illustrated by several examples. Recommendations for improvements in the evaluation process are given

  10. A System Evaluation Theory Analyzing Value and Results Chain for Institutional Accreditation in Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquibut, Rene Ymbong

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to apply the system evaluation theory (SET) to analyze the institutional quality standards of Oman Academic Accreditation Authority using the results chain and value chain tools. Design/methodology/approach: In systems thinking, the institutional standards are connected as input, process, output and feedback and leads to…

  11. APPLICATION OF ROUGH SET THEORY TO MAINTENANCE LEVEL DECISION-MAKING FOR AERO-ENGINE MODULES BASED ON INCREMENTAL KNOWLEDGE LEARNING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陆晓华; 左洪福; 蔡景

    2013-01-01

    The maintenance of an aero-engine usually includes three levels ,and the maintenance cost and period greatly differ depending on the different maintenance levels .To plan a reasonable maintenance budget program , airlines would like to predict the maintenance level of aero-engine before repairing in terms of performance parame-ters ,which can provide more economic benefits .The maintenance level decision rules are mined using the histori-cal maintenance data of a civil aero-engine based on the rough set theory ,and a variety of possible models of upda-ting rules produced by newly increased maintenance cases added to the historical maintenance case database are in-vestigated by the means of incremental machine learning .The continuously updated rules can provide reasonable guidance suggestions for engineers and decision support for planning a maintenance budget program before repai-ring .The results of an example show that the decision rules become more typical and robust ,and they are more accurate to predict the maintenance level of an aero-engine module as the maintenance data increase ,which illus-trates the feasibility of the represented method .

  12. Kinetic mean field theories: Results of energy constraint in maximizing entropy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stell, G.; Karkheck, J.; Beijeren, H. van

    1983-01-01

    Structure of liquids and solids; crystallography Classical, semiclassical, and quantum theories of liquid structure Statistical theories of liquid structure - Kinetic and transport theory of fluids; physical properties of gases Kinetic and transport theory

  13. Is Implicit Theory of Mind a Real and Robust Phenomenon? Results From a Systematic Replication Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulke, Louisa; von Duhn, Britta; Schneider, Dana; Rakoczy, Hannes

    2018-06-01

    Recently, theory-of-mind research has been revolutionized by findings from novel implicit tasks suggesting that at least some aspects of false-belief reasoning develop earlier in ontogeny than previously assumed and operate automatically throughout adulthood. Although these findings are the empirical basis for far-reaching theories, systematic replications are still missing. This article reports a preregistered large-scale attempt to replicate four influential anticipatory-looking implicit theory-of-mind tasks using original stimuli and procedures. Results showed that only one of the four paradigms was reliably replicated. A second set of studies revealed, further, that this one paradigm was no longer replicated once confounds were removed, which calls its validity into question. There were also no correlations between paradigms, and thus, no evidence for their convergent validity. In conclusion, findings from anticipatory-looking false-belief paradigms seem less reliable and valid than previously assumed, thus limiting the conclusions that can be drawn from them.

  14. Exact results for N=2 supersymmetric gauge theories on compact toric manifolds and equivariant Donaldson invariants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bershtein, Mikhail; Bonelli, Giulio; Ronzani, Massimiliano; Tanzini, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    We provide a contour integral formula for the exact partition function of N=2 supersymmetric U(N) gauge theories on compact toric four-manifolds by means of supersymmetric localisation. We perform the explicit evaluation of the contour integral for U(2) N=2"∗ theory on ℙ"2 for all instanton numbers. In the zero mass case, corresponding to the N=4 supersymmetric gauge theory, we obtain the generating function of the Euler characteristics of instanton moduli spaces in terms of mock-modular forms. In the decoupling limit of infinite mass we find that the generating function of local and surface observables computes equivariant Donaldson invariants, thus proving in this case a long-standing conjecture by N. Nekrasov. In the case of vanishing first Chern class the resulting equivariant Donaldson polynomials are new.

  15. All-order results for infrared and collinear singularities in massless gauge theories

    CERN Document Server

    Dixon, Lance J; Magnea, Lorenzo

    2010-01-01

    We review recent results concerning the all-order structure of infrared and collinear divergences in massless gauge theory amplitudes. While the exponentiation of these divergences for nonabelian gauge theories has been understood for a long time, in the past couple of years we have begun to unravel the all-order structure of the anomalous dimensions that build up the perturbative exponent. In the large-Nc limit, all infrared and collinear divergences are determined by just three functions; one of them, the cusp anomalous dimension, plays a key role also for non-planar contributions. Indeed, all infrared and collinear divergences of massless gauge theory amplitudes with any number of hard partons may be captured by a surprisingly simple expression constructed as a sum over color dipoles. Potential corrections to this expression, correlating four or more hard partons at three loops or beyond, are tightly constrained and are currently under study.

  16. On the Theory of Human Decisions in the Age of “beneficial globalization”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katalin Martinás

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The globalisation is a complex phenomenon with many advantageous and disadvantageous consequences. In this paper we investigate the linkage between globalised market economy and the happiness through the ethical implications of the greatest happiness principle in a system approach. We also investigate the terms of the beneficial globalisation. Our proposition is that: the main condition of the good globalisation should be Bentham’s principle: the greatest happiness for the greatest number and the United States Declaration of Independence’s famous phrase pursuit of happiness.We face the following problem: the globalization assures – due to its Nature – the growth of Z, which is the marketed part of the globalization, but not the total happiness.The main question in political philosophy is: What do we need to do in order to live together well? In complex approach, based on the wealth increase law we take into account the parameters, which will be changed by the human decisions (i as well as the long-term expectations, which are motivating the decisions themselves (ii. Factors (i are the followings: material goods, money, parameters of human physiology (e.g. health, psychology (knowledge, sociology (e.g. friends, power. These quantities are measurable in principle, i.e. they can be mapped into the set of real numbers. The changes are exchanges between two agents or with the nature, and there is production/consumption inside the agent.

  17. Twist-2 at seven loops in planar N=4 SYM theory: full result and analytic properties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marboe, Christian [School of Mathematics, Trinity College Dublin,College Green, Dublin 2 (Ireland); Institut für Mathematik und Institut für Physik, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin,IRIS Adlershof, Zum Großen Windkanal 6, 12489 Berlin (Germany); Velizhanin, Vitaly [Theoretical Physics Division, NRC “Kurchatov Institute”,Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Orlova Roscha,Gatchina, 188300 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Institut für Mathematik und Institut für Physik, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin,IRIS Adlershof, Zum Großen Windkanal 6, 12489 Berlin (Germany)

    2016-11-04

    The anomalous dimension of twist-2 operators of arbitrary spin in planar N=4 SYM theory is found at seven loops by using the quantum spectral curve to compute values at fixed spin, and reconstructing the general result using the LLL-algorithm together with modular arithmetic. The result of the analytic continuation to negative spin is presented, and its relation with the recently computed correction to the BFKL and double-logarithmic equation is discussed.

  18. Sensor fault analysis using decision theory and data-driven modeling of pressurized water reactor subsystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upadhyaya, B.R.; Skorska, M.

    1984-01-01

    Instrument fault detection and estimation is important for process surveillance, control, and safety functions of a power plant. The method incorporates the dual-hypotheses decision procedure and system characterization using data-driven time-domain models of signals representing the system. The multivariate models can be developed on-line and can be adapted to changing system conditions. For the method to be effective, specific subsystems of pressurized water reactors were considered, and signal selection was made such that a strong causal relationship exists among the measured variables. The technique is applied to the reactor core subsystem of the loss-of-fluid test reactor using in-core neutron detector and core-exit thermocouple signals. Thermocouple anomalies such as bias error, noise error, and slow drift in the sensor are detected and estimated using appropriate measurement models

  19. A cognitive and economic decision theory for examining cyber defense strategies.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bier, Asmeret Brooke

    2014-01-01

    Cyber attacks pose a major threat to modern organizations. Little is known about the social aspects of decision making among organizations that face cyber threats, nor do we have empirically-grounded models of the dynamics of cooperative behavior among vulnerable organizations. The effectiveness of cyber defense can likely be enhanced if information and resources are shared among organizations that face similar threats. Three models were created to begin to understand the cognitive and social aspects of cyber cooperation. The first simulated a cooperative cyber security program between two organizations. The second focused on a cyber security training program in which participants interact (and potentially cooperate) to solve problems. The third built upon the first two models and simulates cooperation between organizations in an information-sharing program.

  20. Applying sustainability theory to transport infrastructure assessment using a multiplicative ahp decision support model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryn, Marie Ridley; Cornet, Yannick; Salling, Kim Bang

    2015-01-01

    report, which is used to validate the nested model of sustainability for countries operating under the paradox of affluence. This provides a theoretical rationale for prioritising longer-term ecological integrity over shorter-term economic concerns, in line with the stronger conceptualisation......It is generally expected that the three dimensions of the economy, society and the environment must be included in any measurable sustainability pathway. However, these do not provide much guidance as to how to prioritize impacts within and between the dimensions. A conceptualized approach...... to sustainability based on the nested model is therefore presented seeking to provide an alternative approach to sustainable transportation assessment, namely the SUSTAIN Decision Support System (DSS) model. This model is based on a review of basic notions of sustainability presented by the Brundtland Commission...

  1. Considering the CPR Decision Through the Lens of Prospect Theory in the Context of Advanced Chronic Illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bern-Klug, Mercedes

    2017-02-01

    It is common for people with advanced chronic illness to have many health care providers and many health care-related visits. It is also common, during those visits, to be asked whether attempts at cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) are desired, in the event of cardiac arrest. Although the question is common, the implications of a "yes" or a "no" may not be well understood. Although CPR can be a life-saving procedure, it is not always in the patient's best interest. This article discusses experiences with CPR of 2 older women (and their adult children) during their last years of life, and uses concepts from prospect theory to make suggestions for changes in the way health care providers and patients approach advance care planning including the CPR decision. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. The neuronal substrate of risky choice: an insight into the contributions of neuroimaging to the understanding of theories on decision making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorhold, Verena

    2008-04-01

    This chapter provides an overview of studies in the field of neuroscience that investigate some of the processes and concepts of risk perception, risky choice, and decision making under risk. First, early studies in the field of neuroscience addressing the diminished decision-making abilities in lesion patients are presented. A classical task in this research field is described along with its neural implications. After this, the underlying model, its hypotheses, and neuronal implications are discussed. Different aspects within risky decision making, such as the influence of memory, inhibition, motivation, and personality, on risky choice and the respective underlying neuronal substrate are described. After this, studies of risky decision making in healthy subjects are reviewed. A selection of studies shows that theories focusing on cognitive aspects only have to be enriched in order to allow for additional aspects within risky decision making (e.g., emotion). Next, the classical economic approaches and the development of theories incorporating further aspects within economical decision making and the underlying neuronal substrate will be presented. Finally, research in the field of neuroeconomics, focusing on the role of social decision making and evaluative judgment within risky decision making, is reviewed.

  3. Using cost-effectiveness analysis for formulary decision making: from theory into practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detsky, A S

    1994-10-01

    The growth of expenditures on healthcare and pharmaceutical products is a concern to third-party payers because of the absence of market discipline (price signals that consumers face). Cost-effectiveness analysis is a method that allows third-party payers to systematically make judgements about the 'value for money' of these products. It moves beyond simple unit price comparisons of alternate interventions/products to consider the full stream of relevant cost and benefits. As formulary committees begin to adopt the systematic use of cost-effectiveness analyses to inform the debate, the exercise will move from an academic to a more practical application. This transition will require several important changes including defining the purpose of cost-effectiveness analysis, measurement of outcomes and data, format of reports, and contractual arrangements between the pharmaceutical industry and analysts. As more 'real world' experience is gained in the practical application of cost-effectiveness analysis, the quality of data will improve as will its value as an aid to decision making.

  4. 78 FR 69817 - Polyethylene Retail Carrier Bags From Thailand: Final Court Decision and Amended Final Results of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-21

    ... Bags From Thailand: Final Court Decision and Amended Final Results of Administrative Review of the..., which recalculated the weighted-average duty margin for polyethylene retail carrier bags (PRCBs) from... Packaging at the CIT. \\2\\ See Polyethylene Retail Carrier Bags from Thailand: Final Results and Partial...

  5. Reconstruction of scalar field theories realizing inflation consistent with the Planck and BICEP2 results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuharu Bamba

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available We reconstruct scalar field theories to realize inflation compatible with the BICEP2 result as well as the Planck. In particular, we examine the chaotic inflation model, natural (or axion inflation model, and an inflationary model with a hyperbolic inflaton potential. We perform an explicit approach to find out a scalar field model of inflation in which any observations can be explained in principle.

  6. A Model for Cooperative Advertising and Pricing Decisions in Manufacturer-Retailer Supply Chain with Discount: A Game Theory Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abolfazl Kazemi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Coordinating the supply chain is among the most important subjects that is extensively addressed in the related literature. If a supply chain is to be coordinated, it is equivalent to say that we must solve a problem related to competition and cooperation. The game theory is obviously one of the most effective methods to solve such problems, in which the players of the supply chain are assumed to engage in cooperative and non-cooperative games. The current study aims to coordinate a two-level supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer. This will be achieved using cooperative advertisement along with pricing decisions such that the manufacturer offers a price discount to the retailer and the demand is affected by pricing and advertisement. Cooperative advertisement is a coordinated effort made by all the members of the supply chain to increase the customer demand, in which the retailer does the local advertisement and the manufacturer pays for a portion or all the costs of the retailer advertisement. We consider two models for manufacturer-retailer relation using the game theory: the manufacturer-Stackelberg and the retailer-Stackelberg games with asymmetric power distribution.

  7. Decision making for animal health and welfare: integrating risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Helena; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan

    2014-06-01

    This study integrated risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory with the overall objective of identifying the type of management behavior represented by farmers' choices of mastitis control options (MCOs). Two exploratory factor analyses, based on 163 and 175 Swedish farmers, respectively, highlighted attitudes to MCOs related to: (1) grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent spread of existing infection and (2) working in a precautionary way to prevent mastitis occurring. This was interpreted as being based on (1) reactive management behavior on detection of udder-health problems in individual cows and (2) proactive management behavior to prevent mastitis developing. Farmers' assessments of these MCOs were found to be based on asymmetrical evaluations of risks and benefits, suggesting that farmers' management behavior depends on their individual reference point. In particular, attitudes to MCOs related to grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent the spread of mastitis once infected cows were detected were stronger in the risk domain than in the benefit domain, in accordance with loss aversion. In contrast, attitudes to MCOs related to working in a precautionary way to prevent cows from becoming infected in the first place were stronger in the benefit domain than in the risk domain, in accordance with reverse loss aversion. These findings are of practical importance for farmers and agribusiness and in public health protection work to reduce the current extensive use of antibiotics in dairy herds. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. IS THE LINK BETWEEN HEALTH AND WEALTH CONSIDERED IN DECISION MAKING? RESULTS FROM A QUALITATIVE STUDY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garau, Martina; Shah, Koonal Kirit; Sharma, Priya; Towse, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore whether wealth effects of health interventions, including productivity gains and savings in other sectors, are considered in resource allocations by health technology assessment (HTA) agencies and government departments. To analyze reasons for including, or not including, wealth effects. Semi-structured interviews with decision makers and academic experts in eight countries (Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, South Korea, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). There is evidence suggesting that health interventions can produce economic gains for patients and national economies. However, we found that the link between health and wealth does not influence decision making in any country with the exception of Sweden. This is due to a combination of factors, including system fragmentation, methodological issues, and the economic recession forcing national governments to focus on short-term measures. In countries with established HTA processes and methods allowing, in principle, the inclusion of wider effects in exceptional cases or secondary analyses, it might be possible to overcome the methodological and practical barriers and see a more systematic consideration of wealth effect in decision making. This would be consistent with principles of efficient priority setting. Barriers for the consideration of wealth effects in government decision making are more fundamental, due to an enduring separation of budgets within the public sector and current financial pressures. However, governments should consider all relevant effects from public investments, including healthcare, even when benefits can only be captured in the medium- and long-term. This will ensure that resources are allocated where they bring the best returns.

  9. Planned versus actual outcomes as a result of animal feeding operation decisions for managing phosphorus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabot, Perry E; Nowak, Pete

    2005-01-01

    The paper explores how decisions made on animal feeding operations (AFOs) influence the management of manure and phosphorus. Variability among these decisions from operation to operation and from field to field can influence the validity of nutrient loss risk assessments. These assessments are based on assumptions that the decision outcomes regarding manure distribution will occur as they are planned. The discrepancy between planned versus actual outcomes in phosphorus management was explored on nine AFOs managing a contiguous set of 210 fields in south-central Wisconsin. A total of 2611 soil samples were collected and multiple interviews conducted to assign phosphorus index (PI) ratings to the fields. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients (r(S)) indicated that PI ratings were less sensitive to soil test phosphorus (STP) levels (r(S) = 0.378), universal soil loss equation (USLE) (r(S) = 0.261), ratings for chemical fertilizer application (r(S) = 0.185), and runoff class (r(S) = -0.089), and more sensitive to ratings for manure application (r(S) = 0.854). One-way ANOVA indicated that mean field STP levels were more homogenous than field PI ratings between AFOs. Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) tests displayed several nonsignificant comparisons for cumulative distribution functions, S(x), of mean STP levels on AFO fields. On the other hand, the K-S tests of S(x) for PI ratings indicated that the majority of these S(x) functions were significantly different between AFOs at or greater than the 0.05 significance level. Interviews suggested multiple reasons for divergence between planned and actual outcomes in managing phosphorus, and that this divergence arises at the strategic, tactical, and operational levels of decision-making.

  10. Risk-taking decisions in pathological gamblers is not a result of their impaired inhibition ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kertzman, Semion; Lidogoster, Helena; Aizer, Anat; Kotler, Moshe; Dannon, Pinhas N

    2011-06-30

    This work investigates whether inhibition impairments influence the decision making process in pathological gamblers (PGs). The PG (N=51) subjects performed the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT as the measure of the decision making process) and two tests of inhibition: the Stroop (interference inhibition), and the Go/NoGo (response inhibition), and were compared with demographically matched healthy subjects (N=57). Performance in the IGT block 1 and block 2 did not differ between the groups, but the differences between the PGs and healthy controls began to be significant in block 3, block 4 and block 5. PGs learned the IGT task more slowly than the healthy controls and had non-optimal outcomes (more disadvantageous choices). Impaired IGT performance in PGs was not related to an inhibition ability measured by the Stroop (interference response time) and the Go/NoGo (number of commission errors) parameters. Further controlled studies with neuroimaging techniques may help to clarify the particular brain mechanisms underlying the impaired decision making process in PGs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Results from evaluations of models and cost-effectiveness tools to support introduction decisions for new vaccines need critical appraisal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moorthy Vasee

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The World Health Organization (WHO recommends that the cost-effectiveness (CE of introducing new vaccines be considered before such a programme is implemented. However, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs, it is often challenging to perform and interpret the results of model-based economic appraisals of vaccines that benefit from locally relevant data. As a result, WHO embarked on a series of consultations to assess economic analytical tools to support vaccine introduction decisions for pneumococcal, rotavirus and human papillomavirus vaccines. The objectives of these assessments are to provide decision makers with a menu of existing CE tools for vaccines and their characteristics rather than to endorse the use of a single tool. The outcome will provide policy makers in LMICs with information about the feasibility of applying these models to inform their own decision making. We argue that if models and CE analyses are used to inform decisions, they ought to be critically appraised beforehand, including a transparent evaluation of their structure, assumptions and data sources (in isolation or in comparison to similar tools, so that decision makers can use them while being fully aware of their robustness and limitations.

  12. Weak-field asymptotic theory of tunneling ionization: benchmark analytical results for two-electron atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trinh, Vinh H; Morishita, Toru; Tolstikhin, Oleg I

    2015-01-01

    The recently developed many-electron weak-field asymptotic theory of tunneling ionization of atoms and molecules in an external static electric field (Tolstikhin et al 2014, Phys. Rev. A 89, 013421) is extended to the first-order terms in the asymptotic expansion in field. To highlight the results, here we present a simple analytical formula giving the rate of tunneling ionization of two-electron atoms H − and He. Comparison with fully-correlated ab initio calculations available for these systems shows that the first-order theory works quantitatively in a wide range of fields up to the onset of over-the-barrier ionization and hence is expected to find numerous applications in strong-field physics. (fast track communication)

  13. Rigorous results of low-energy models of the analytic S-matrix theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meshcheryakov, V.A.

    1974-01-01

    Results of analytic S-matrix theory, mainly dealing with the static limit of dispersion relations, are applied to pion-nucleon scattering in the low-energy region. Various approaches to solving equations of the chew-Low type are discussed. It is concluded that interesting results are obtained by reducing the equations to a system of nonlinear difference equations; the crucial element of this approach being the study of functions on the whole Riemann surface. Boundary and crossing symmetry conditions are studied. (HFdV)

  14. Decision making by patients: An application of naturalistic decision making theory to cervical screening and chronic renal failure, Working Paper 2006/5

    OpenAIRE

    Marion Haas

    2006-01-01

    Over their lifetime, individuals typically make many decisions about health and health care. Theoretical approaches to decision making have been dominated by a rational, analytic approach which assumes that problems are relatively fixed and well-defined and which have foreseeable and measurable endpoints. Naturalistic decision making (NDM) approaches attempt to mimic ?real world? situations where problems vary, may be defined differently by individuals with diverse perspectives and where endp...

  15. The role (or not) of economic evaluation at the micro level: can Bourdieu's theory provide a way forward for clinical decision-making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

    2010-06-01

    Despite increasing interest in health economic evaluation, investigations have shown limited use by micro (clinical) level decision-makers. A considerable amount of health decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care. Since every decision has an opportunity cost, ignoring economic information in family physicians' (FPs) decision-making may have a broad impact on health care efficiency. Knowledge translation of economic evaluation is often based on taken-for-granted assumptions about actors' interests and interactions, neglecting much of the complexity of social reality. Health economics literature frequently assumes a rational and linear decision-making process. Clinical decision-making is in fact a complex social, dynamic, multifaceted process, involving relationships and contextual embeddedness. FPs are embedded in complex social networks that have a significant impact on skills, attitudes, knowledge, practices, and on the information being used. Because of their socially constructed nature, understanding preferences, professional culture, practices, and knowledge translation requires serious attention to social reality. There has been little exploration by health economists of whether the problem may be more fundamental and reside in a misunderstanding of the process of decision-making. There is a need to enhance our understanding of the role of economic evaluation in decision-making from a disciplinary perspective different than health economics. This paper argues for a different conceptualization of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making, and proposes Bourdieu's sociological theory as a research framework. Bourdieu's theory of practice illustrates how the context-sensitive nature of practice must be understood as a socially constituted practical knowledge. The proposed approach could substantially contribute to a more complex understanding of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision

  16. Comparison of approximate formulas for decision levels and detection limits for paired counting with the exact results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, W.E.

    2005-01-01

    The exact probability density function for paired counting can be expressed in terms of modified Bessel functions of integral order when the expected blank count is known. Exact decision levels and detection limits can be computed in a straightforward manner. For many applications perturbing half-integer corrections to Gaussian distributions yields satisfactory results for decision levels. When there is concern about the uncertainty for the expected value of the blank count, a way to bound the errors of both types using confidence intervals for the expected blank count is discussed. (author)

  17. When to Blink and when to Think: Preference for Intuitive Decisions Results in Faster and Better Tactical Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raab, Markus; Laborde, Sylvain

    2011-01-01

    Intuition is often considered an effective manner of decision making in sports. In this study we investigated whether a preference for intuition over deliberation results in faster and better lab-based choices in team handball attack situations with 54 male and female handball players of different expertise levels. We assumed that intuitive…

  18. Treatment Decision Regret Among Long-Term Survivors of Localized Prostate Cancer: Results From the Prostate Cancer Outcomes Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Richard M; Lo, Mary; Clark, Jack A; Albertsen, Peter C; Barry, Michael J; Goodman, Michael; Penson, David F; Stanford, Janet L; Stroup, Antoinette M; Hamilton, Ann S

    2017-07-10

    Purpose To determine the demographic, clinical, decision-making, and quality-of-life factors that are associated with treatment decision regret among long-term survivors of localized prostate cancer. Patients and Methods We evaluated men who were age ≤ 75 years when diagnosed with localized prostate cancer between October 1994 and October 1995 in one of six SEER tumor registries and who completed a 15-year follow-up survey. The survey obtained demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical data and measured treatment decision regret, informed decision making, general- and disease-specific quality of life, health worry, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concern, and outlook on life. We used multivariable logistic regression analyses to identify factors associated with regret. Results We surveyed 934 participants, 69.3% of known survivors. Among the cohort, 59.1% had low-risk tumor characteristics (PSA decision regret: 8.2% of those whose disease was managed conservatively, 15.0% of those who received surgery, and 16.6% of those who underwent radiotherapy. Factors associated with regret on multivariable analysis included reporting moderate or big sexual function bother (reported by 39.0%; OR, 2.77; 95% CI, 1.51 to 5.0), moderate or big bowel function bother (reported by 7.7%; OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.04 to 5.15), and PSA concern (mean score 52.8; OR, 1.01 per point change; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.02). Increasing age at diagnosis and report of having made an informed treatment decision were inversely associated with regret. Conclusion Regret was a relatively infrequently reported outcome among long-term survivors of localized prostate cancer; however, our results suggest that better informing men about treatment options, in particular, conservative treatment, might help mitigate long-term regret. These findings are timely for men with low-risk cancers who are being encouraged to consider active surveillance.

  19. A functional near-infrared spectroscopy study of lexical decision task supports the dual route model and the phonological deficit theory of dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sela, Itamar; Izzetoglu, Meltem; Izzetoglu, Kurtulus; Onaral, Banu

    2014-01-01

    The dual route model (DRM) of reading suggests two routes of reading development: the phonological and the orthographic routes. It was proposed that although the two routes are active in the process of reading; the first is more involved at the initial stages of reading acquisition, whereas the latter needs more reading training to mature. A number of studies have shown that deficient phonological processing is a core deficit in developmental dyslexia. According to the DRM, when the Lexical Decision Task (LDT) is performed, the orthographic route should also be involved when decoding words, whereas it is clear that when decoding pseudowords the phonological route should be activated. Previous functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIR) studies have suggested that the upper left frontal lobe is involved in decision making in the LDT. The current study used fNIR to compare left frontal lobe activity during LDT performance among three reading-level groups: 12-year-old children, young adult dyslexic readers, and young adult typical readers. Compared to typical readers, the children demonstrated lower activity under the word condition only, whereas the dyslexic readers showed lower activity under the pseudoword condition only. The results provide evidence for upper left frontal lobe involvement in LDT and support the DRM and the phonological deficit theory of dyslexia.

  20. A web-based neurological pain classifier tool utilizing Bayesian decision theory for pain classification in spinal cord injury patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Sneha K.; Chun, Sophia; Liu, Brent J.

    2014-03-01

    Pain is a common complication after spinal cord injury with prevalence estimates ranging 77% to 81%, which highly affects a patient's lifestyle and well-being. In the current clinical setting paper-based forms are used to classify pain correctly, however, the accuracy of diagnoses and optimal management of pain largely depend on the expert reviewer, which in many cases is not possible because of very few experts in this field. The need for a clinical decision support system that can be used by expert and non-expert clinicians has been cited in literature, but such a system has not been developed. We have designed and developed a stand-alone tool for correctly classifying pain type in spinal cord injury (SCI) patients, using Bayesian decision theory. Various machine learning simulation methods are used to verify the algorithm using a pilot study data set, which consists of 48 patients data set. The data set consists of the paper-based forms, collected at Long Beach VA clinic with pain classification done by expert in the field. Using the WEKA as the machine learning tool we have tested on the 48 patient dataset that the hypothesis that attributes collected on the forms and the pain location marked by patients have very significant impact on the pain type classification. This tool will be integrated with an imaging informatics system to support a clinical study that will test the effectiveness of using Proton Beam radiotherapy for treating spinal cord injury (SCI) related neuropathic pain as an alternative to invasive surgical lesioning.

  1. Does electronic clinical microbiology results reporting influence medical decision making: a pre- and post-interview study of medical specialists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bloembergen Peter

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinicians view the accuracy of test results and the turnaround time as the two most important service aspects of the clinical microbiology laboratory. Because of the time needed for the culturing of infectious agents, final hardcopy culture results will often be available too late to have a significant impact on early antimicrobial therapy decisions, vital in infectious disease management. The clinical microbiologist therefore reports to the clinician clinically relevant preliminary results at any moment during the diagnostic process, mostly by telephone. Telephone reporting is error prone, however. Electronic reporting of culture results instead of reporting on paper may shorten the turnaround time and may ensure correct communication of results. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the implementation of electronic reporting of final microbiology results on medical decision making. Methods In a pre- and post-interview study using a semi-structured design we asked medical specialists in our hospital about their use and appreciation of clinical microbiology results reporting before and after the implementation of an electronic reporting system. Results Electronic reporting was highly appreciated by all interviewed clinicians. Major advantages were reduction of hardcopy handling and the possibility to review results in relation to other patient data. Use and meaning of microbiology reports differ significantly between medical specialties. Most clinicians need preliminary results for therapy decisions quickly. Therefore, after the implementation of electronic reporting, telephone consultation between clinician and microbiologist remained the key means of communication. Conclusions Overall, electronic reporting increased the workflow efficiency of the medical specialists, but did not have an impact on their decision-making.

  2. Aspects of Cognitive Complexity Theory and Research as Applied to a Managerial Decision Making Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-09-01

    existence of at least a limited typography : Some degree of generality of cognitive style across domains was obtained. Which style is utilized in a...obtained results indicating that complexity is related to affect and dispersion of affect ratings for brands of toothpaste and automobiles. Specifically

  3. A grounded theory approach to understand the process of decision making on fertility control methods in urban society of Mashhad, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roudsari, Robab Latifnejad; Khadivzadeh, Talat; Bahrami, Masoud

    2013-09-01

    More than 30% of pregnancies in Iran are unintended and most of them happen among the women who use various contraceptive methods. Results of Integrated Monitoring and Evaluation System (IMES) showed that the rate of innovative contraceptive use in Mashhad has been 41.5%-57% in different urban areas. This study was conducted to explore the process of making decision toward using family planning methods in women of reproductive age in urban society of Mashhad, Iran. In this grounded theory study, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 45 purposefully selected participants including 28 women and 17 key informants including family health providers and managers, and participants' mothers and husbands, who lived in urban society of Mashhad, Iran, in 2011-2012. Participants' recruitment continued until data saturation occurred. Data were analyzed using Strauss and Corbin's mode of analysis through constant comparative method, applying levels of open, axial, and selective coding with MAXqda software. Study rigor was confirmed through prolonged engagement, member check, expert debriefing, and thick description of the data. The core category of "caring the comprehensive health of my family," which emerged from the data, described the process of couples' decision making toward using family planning methods in this study. Other developed categories which were presented into a theoretical scheme consisted of 1) shaping the ideas of fertility control, 2) developing cognition about the fertility control methods, 3) appraising available choices and choosing the most appropriate one, 4) managing the course of using methods, and 5) realizing the fertility intentions. It is important that family planning providers understand the motivations, perceptions, and knowledge of women about contraceptive methods in their contextual situation, which illustrates their mode of interaction in the arenas of family planning decision making.

  4. Does electronic clinical microbiology results reporting influence medical decision making: a pre- and post-interview study of medical specialists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruins, Marjan J; Ruijs, Gijs J H M; Wolfhagen, Maurice J H M; Bloembergen, Peter; Aarts, Jos E C M

    2011-03-30

    Clinicians view the accuracy of test results and the turnaround time as the two most important service aspects of the clinical microbiology laboratory. Because of the time needed for the culturing of infectious agents, final hardcopy culture results will often be available too late to have a significant impact on early antimicrobial therapy decisions, vital in infectious disease management. The clinical microbiologist therefore reports to the clinician clinically relevant preliminary results at any moment during the diagnostic process, mostly by telephone. Telephone reporting is error prone, however. Electronic reporting of culture results instead of reporting on paper may shorten the turnaround time and may ensure correct communication of results. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the implementation of electronic reporting of final microbiology results on medical decision making. In a pre- and post-interview study using a semi-structured design we asked medical specialists in our hospital about their use and appreciation of clinical microbiology results reporting before and after the implementation of an electronic reporting system. Electronic reporting was highly appreciated by all interviewed clinicians. Major advantages were reduction of hardcopy handling and the possibility to review results in relation to other patient data. Use and meaning of microbiology reports differ significantly between medical specialties. Most clinicians need preliminary results for therapy decisions quickly. Therefore, after the implementation of electronic reporting, telephone consultation between clinician and microbiologist remained the key means of communication. Overall, electronic reporting increased the workflow efficiency of the medical specialists, but did not have an impact on their decision-making. © 2011 Bruins et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  5. Implementing communication and decision-making interventions directed at goals of care: a theory-led scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Amanda; Lund, Susi; Campling, Natasha; May, Carl R; Richardson, Alison; Myall, Michelle

    2017-10-06

    To identify the factors that promote and inhibit the implementation of interventions that improve communication and decision-making directed at goals of care in the event of acute clinical deterioration. A scoping review was undertaken based on the methodological framework of Arksey and O'Malley for conducting this type of review. Searches were carried out in Medline and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) to identify peer-reviewed papers and in Google to identify grey literature. Searches were limited to those published in the English language from 2000 onwards. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied, and only papers that had a specific focus on implementation in practice were selected. Data extracted were treated as qualitative and subjected to directed content analysis. A theory-informed coding framework using Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) was applied to characterise and explain implementation processes. Searches identified 2619 citations, 43 of which met the inclusion criteria. Analysis generated six themes fundamental to successful implementation of goals of care interventions: (1) input into development; (2) key clinical proponents; (3) training and education; (4) intervention workability and functionality; (5) setting and context; and (6) perceived value and appraisal. A broad and diverse literature focusing on implementation of goals of care interventions was identified. Our review recognised these interventions as both complex and contentious in nature, making their incorporation into routine clinical practice dependent on a number of factors. Implementing such interventions presents challenges at individual, organisational and systems levels, which make them difficult to introduce and embed. We have identified a series of factors that influence successful implementation and our analysis has distilled key learning points, conceptualised as a set of propositions, we consider relevant to implementing other complex

  6. A Decision Support System Based on Soil Ecological Criteria: Results from the European ECOGEN Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cortet, J.; Bohanec, M.; ?nidar?ic, M.

    and the public who are concerned about the possible ecological implications. The ECOGEN (www.ecogen.dk) project Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops is an EU-funded project aimed at combining simple lab tests, multi-species model ecosystems and field studies to acquire...... mechanistic and realistic knowledge about economic and ecological impacts of GM crops on the soil (Cortet et al, 2005, Griffiths et al, 2005, Vercesi et al, 2005). Economic trade-offs are assessed and related to ecological effects (Scatasta at al, 2005). One of the goals of the project is to develop...... a computer-based decision support system for the assessment of economic and ecological impacts of using GM crops, with special emphasis on soil biology and ecology. For model development, we have taken the approach of qualitative multi-attribute modeling (Bohanec 2003). The idea is to develop a hierarchical...

  7. Does electronic clinical microbiology results reporting influence medical decision making: A pre- and post-interview study of medical specialists

    OpenAIRE

    Bruins, Marjan; Ruijs, G.; Wolfhagen, M.J.H.M.; Bloembergen, Peter; Aarts, Jos

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Clinicians view the accuracy of test results and the turnaround time as the two most important service aspects of the clinical microbiology laboratory. Because of the time needed for the culturing of infectious agents, final hardcopy culture results will often be available too late to have a significant impact on early antimicrobial therapy decisions, vital in infectious disease management. The clinical microbiologist therefore reports to the clinician clinically relevant ...

  8. Results from a psychometric assessment of a new tool for measuring evidence-based decision making in public health organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamatakis, Katherine A; Ferreira Hino, Adriano Akira; Allen, Peg; McQueen, Amy; Jacob, Rebekah R; Baker, Elizabeth A; Brownson, Ross C

    2017-02-01

    In order to better understand how to improve evidence-based decision making (EBDM) in state health departments, measurement tools are needed to evaluate changes in EBDM. The purpose of this study was to test the psychometric properties of a new measurement tool to assess EBDM in public health practice settings. A questionnaire was developed, pilot-tested and refined in an iterative process with the input of public health practitioners with the aim of identifying a set of specific measures representing different components of EBDM. Data were collected in a national survey of state health department chronic disease practitioners. The final dataset (n=879) for psychometric testing was comprised of 19 EBDM items that were first examined using exploratory factor analysis, and then confirmatory factor analysis. The final model from confirmatory factor analysis includes five latent factors representing components of EBDM: capacity for evaluation, expectations and incentives for EBDM, access to evidence and resources for EBDM, participatory decision making, and leadership support and commitment. This study addresses the need for empirically tested and theory-aligned measures that may be used to assess the extent to which EBDM is currently implemented, and further, to gauge the success of strategies to improve EBDM, in public health settings. This EBDM measurement tool may help identify needed supports for enhanced capacity and implementation of effective strategies. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Development of the kinetic molecular theory of gases concept inventory: Preliminary results on university students’ misconceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Erceg

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigated students’ understanding of concepts related to the microscopic model of gas. We thoroughly reviewed the relevant literature and conducted think alouds with students by asking them to answer open-ended questions about the kinetic molecular theory of gases. Thereafter, we transformed the open-ended questions into multiple-choice questions, whereby distractors were based on the results of the think alouds. Thus, we obtained a set of 22 questions, which constitutes our current version of the kinetic molecular theory of gases concept inventory. The inventory has been administered to 250 students from different universities in Croatia, and its content validity has been investigated trough physics teacher surveys. The results of our study not only corroborate the existence of some already known student misconceptions, but also reveal new insights about a great spectrum of students’ misconceptions that had not been reported in earlier research (e.g., misconceptions about intermolecular potential energy and molecular velocity distribution. Moreover, we identified similar distribution of students’ responses across the surveyed student groups, despite the fact that they had been enrolled in different curricular environments.

  10. Aging Prisoners’ Treatment Selection: Does Prospect Theory Enhance Understanding of End-of-Life Medical Decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Laura L.; Allen, Rebecca S.; Harris, Grant M.; Presnell, Andrew H.; DeCoster, Jamie; Cavanaugh, Ronald

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: With the rapid growth in the older inmate population and the economic impact of end-of-life treatments within the cash-strapped prison system, consideration should be given to inmate treatment preferences. We examined end-of-life treatment preferences and days of desired life for several health scenarios among male inmates incarcerated primarily for murder. Design and Methods: Inmates over the age of 45 who passed a cognitive screening completed face-to-face interviews (N = 94; mean age = 57.7; SD = 10.68). Results: We found a 3-way interaction indicating that the effect of parole expectation on desire for life-sustaining treatment varied by race/ethnicity and treatment. Minority inmates desired cardiopulmonary resuscitation or feeding tubes only if they believed that they would be paroled. The model predicting desire for palliative care was not significant. Future days of desired life were related to prospective health condition, fear of death, negative affect, and trust in prison health care. Caucasian inmates expressed a desire for more days of life out of prison, whereas minority inmates did not differ in days of desired life either in or out of prison. Minorities wanted more days of life than Caucasians but only if they believed that they would be paroled. Implications: End-of-life care for the burgeoning inmate population is costly, and active life-sustaining treatments may not be desired under certain conditions. Specifically, expectation of parole but not current functional ability interacts with future illness condition in explaining inmates’ desire for active treatment or days of desired life in the future. PMID:21593007

  11. Decision Theories used in Areas Planning around La Colacha Basin (Cordoba, Argentina) considering Natural and Human Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antón, Jose M.; Grau, Juan B.; Tarquis, A. M.; Cisneros, Jose M.; Andina, Diego

    2010-05-01

    The authors of U.P.M. have had relations with Argentine Universities and Administrations, in part with J.M.Cisneros that is Professor at Universidad Nacional de Rio Cuarto in Prov. de Córdoba Arg., and have applied Decision Theories with Mathematic tools for the planning of defences and uses of soils in these areas and especially of La Colacha bassin enlarged with larger areas around it as "Cuenca de los Arroyos Menores" at West and South of Rio Cuarto. These large flat lands have loess soils brought by winds from Los Andes that are much far at West, there is a very old line of not high mountains at West near the study area from which rivers flow with little slopes to somehow lower flat areas at West with some marshes. Rivers through loess get regressive erosions with rains forming kilometres long ditches in the loess called "cárcavas" some meters deep and quite large across otherwise flat agricultural lands, and J.M. Cisneros, that has numerous publications about local soil uses, has directed diverse genie rural works to halt the regression of some of them. Part of the study is about protection against floods and "cárcavas". There are famous experiences and records of higher inundations of large areas by rivers. Latitude of Rio Cuarto is 31°25' South, that area is temperate refreshed by south winds, Zonda föhn winds from West being hotter and drier, and there are monsoons and so winter in July is dry and summer and December has rains, that average 829mm per year. Wind erosion and fires occur frequently on these loess soils in winter. This is an excellent area for agriculture but some actual uses may be not sustainable in long term such as excesses with genetically engineered soy, and the authors have studied aided with mathematical models (ELECTRE I, PROMETHEE and Expert Choice) the preferences of various alternative systems of land use (Autochthonous forest, High value forest, Traditional farms, Erosion control Crop with agriculture use, and Erosion control

  12. Apps seeking theories: results of a study on the use of health behavior change theories in cancer survivorship mobile apps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vollmer Dahlke, Deborah; Fair, Kayla; Hong, Y Alicia; Beaudoin, Christopher E; Pulczinski, Jairus; Ory, Marcia G

    2015-03-27

    Thousands of mobile health apps are now available for use on mobile phones for a variety of uses and conditions, including cancer survivorship. Many of these apps appear to deliver health behavior interventions but may fail to consider design considerations based in human computer interface and health behavior change theories. This study is designed to assess the presence of and manner in which health behavior change and health communication theories are applied in mobile phone cancer survivorship apps. The research team selected a set of criteria-based health apps for mobile phones and assessed each app using qualitative coding methods to assess the application of health behavior change and communication theories. Each app was assessed using a coding derived from the taxonomy of 26 health behavior change techniques by Abraham and Michie with a few important changes based on the characteristics of mHealth apps that are specific to information processing and human computer interaction such as control theory and feedback systems. A total of 68 mobile phone apps and games built on the iOS and Android platforms were coded, with 65 being unique. Using a Cohen's kappa analysis statistic, the inter-rater reliability for the iOS apps was 86.1 (Papps, 77.4 (Papps were consistently higher than those of the Android platform apps. For personalization and tailoring, 67% of the iOS apps (24/36) had these elements as compared to 38% of the Android apps (12/32). In the area of prompting for intention formation, 67% of the iOS apps (34/36) indicated these elements as compared to 16% (5/32) of the Android apps. Mobile apps are rapidly emerging as a way to deliver health behavior change interventions that can be tailored or personalized for individuals. As these apps and games continue to evolve and include interactive and adaptive sensors and other forms of dynamic feedback, their content and interventional elements need to be grounded in human computer interface design and health

  13. Classification of unconscious like/dislike decisions: First results towards a novel application for BCI technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wriessnegger, S C; Hackhofer, D; Muller-Putz, G R

    2015-01-01

    More and more applications for BCI technology emerge that are not restricted to communication or control, like gaming, rehabilitation, Neuro-IS research, neuro-economics or security. In this context a so called passive BCI, a system that derives its outputs from arbitrary brain activity for enriching a human-machine interaction with implicit information on the actual user state will be used. Concretely EEG-based BCI technology enables the use of signals related to attention, intentions and mental state, without relying on indirect measures based on overt behavior or other physiological signals which is an important point e.g. in Neuromarketing research. The scope of this pilot EEG-study was to detect like/dislike decisions on car stimuli just by means of ERP analysis. Concretely to define user preferences concerning different car designs by implementing an offline BCI based on shrinkage LDA classification. Although classification failed in the majority of participants the elicited early (sub) conscious ERP components reflect user preferences for cars. In a broader sense this study should pave the way towards a "product design BCI" suitable for neuromarketing research.

  14. Decision Support Systems: Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    i41-354, 1963. Lambin, I. J., "A Computer On-Line Marketing Mix Model." J. Marketing Res. 9, 119-126, May 1972. Langefors, Borge and Samuelson, Kjell...John D. C., "BRANDAID: An On-Line Marketing Mix Model," Alfred P. Sloan School Working Paper 586-72, M.I.T. , 1972. (39) Little, John D. C. and Lodish

  15. Nudging physician prescription decisions by partitioning the order set: results of a vignette-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tannenbaum, David; Doctor, Jason N; Persell, Stephen D; Friedberg, Mark W; Meeker, Daniella; Friesema, Elisha M; Goldstein, Noah J; Linder, Jeffrey A; Fox, Craig R

    2015-03-01

    Healthcare professionals are rapidly adopting electronic health records (EHRs). Within EHRs, seemingly innocuous menu design configurations can influence provider decisions for better or worse. The purpose of this study was to examine whether the grouping of menu items systematically affects prescribing practices among primary care providers. We surveyed 166 primary care providers in a research network of practices in the greater Chicago area, of whom 84 responded (51% response rate). Respondents and non-respondents were similar on all observable dimensions except that respondents were more likely to work in an academic setting. The questionnaire consisted of seven clinical vignettes. Each vignette described typical signs and symptoms for acute respiratory infections, and providers chose treatments from a menu of options. For each vignette, providers were randomly assigned to one of two menu partitions. For antibiotic-inappropriate vignettes, the treatment menu either listed over-the-counter (OTC) medications individually while grouping prescriptions together, or displayed the reverse partition. For antibiotic-appropriate vignettes, the treatment menu either listed narrow-spectrum antibiotics individually while grouping broad-spectrum antibiotics, or displayed the reverse partition. The main outcome was provider treatment choice. For antibiotic-inappropriate vignettes, we categorized responses as prescription drugs or OTC-only options. For antibiotic-appropriate vignettes, we categorized responses as broad- or narrow-spectrum antibiotics. Across vignettes, there was an 11.5 percentage point reduction in choosing aggressive treatment options (e.g., broad-spectrum antibiotics) when aggressive options were grouped compared to when those same options were listed individually (95% CI: 2.9 to 20.1%; p = .008). Provider treatment choice appears to be influenced by the grouping of menu options, suggesting that the layout of EHR order sets is not an arbitrary exercise

  16. Practical Calculational Scheme Implementing the Wilsonian RG Results for Nuclear Effective Field Theory Including Pions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubo, H.; Harada, K.; Sakaeda, T.; Yamamoto, Y.

    2013-01-01

    On the basis of the Wilsonian renormalization group (WRG) analysis of nuclear effective field theory (NEFT) including pions, we propose a practical calculational scheme in which the short-distance part of one-pion exchange (S-OPE) is removed and represented as contact terms. The long-distance part of one-pion exchange (L-OPE) is treated as perturbation. The use of dimensional regularization (DR) for diagrams consisting only of contact interactions considerably simplifies the calculation of scattering amplitude and the renormalization group equations. NLO results for nucleon-nucleon elastic scattering in the S-waves are obtained and compared with experiments. A brief comment on NNLO calculations is given. (author)

  17. Cognitive Effects of Mindfulness Training: Results of a Pilot Study Based on a Theory Driven Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimmer, Lena; Bellingrath, Silja; von Stockhausen, Lisa

    2016-01-01

    The present paper reports a pilot study which tested cognitive effects of mindfulness practice in a theory-driven approach. Thirty-four fifth graders received either a mindfulness training which was based on the mindfulness-based stress reduction approach (experimental group), a concentration training (active control group), or no treatment (passive control group). Based on the operational definition of mindfulness by Bishop et al. (2004), effects on sustained attention, cognitive flexibility, cognitive inhibition, and data-driven as opposed to schema-based information processing were predicted. These abilities were assessed in a pre-post design by means of a vigilance test, a reversible figures test, the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, a Stroop test, a visual search task, and a recognition task of prototypical faces. Results suggest that the mindfulness training specifically improved cognitive inhibition and data-driven information processing.

  18. Cognitive effects of mindfulness training: Results of a pilot study based on a theory driven approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lena Wimmer

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The present paper reports a pilot study which tested cognitive effects of mindfulness practice in a theory-driven approach. Thirty-four fifth graders received either a mindfulness training which was based on the mindfulness-based stress reduction approach (experimental group, a concentration training (active control group or no treatment (passive control group. Based on the operational definition of mindfulness by Bishop et al. (2004, effects on sustained attention, cognitive flexibility, cognitive inhibition and data-driven as opposed to schema-based information processing were predicted. These abilities were assessed in a pre-post design by means of a vigilance test, a reversible figures test, the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, a Stroop test, a visual search task, and a recognition task of prototypical faces. Results suggest that the mindfulness training specifically improved cognitive inhibition and data-driven information processing.

  19. Interacting Agricultural Pests and Their Effect on Crop Yield: Application of a Bayesian Decision Theory Approach to the Joint Management of Bromus tectorum and Cephus cinctus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keren, Ilai N.; Menalled, Fabian D.; Weaver, David K.; Robison-Cox, James F.

    2015-01-01

    Worldwide, the landscape homogeneity of extensive monocultures that characterizes conventional agriculture has resulted in the development of specialized and interacting multitrophic pest complexes. While integrated pest management emphasizes the need to consider the ecological context where multiple species coexist, management recommendations are often based on single-species tactics. This approach may not provide satisfactory solutions when confronted with the complex interactions occurring between organisms at the same or different trophic levels. Replacement of the single-species management model with more sophisticated, multi-species programs requires an understanding of the direct and indirect interactions occurring between the crop and all categories of pests. We evaluated a modeling framework to make multi-pest management decisions taking into account direct and indirect interactions among species belonging to different trophic levels. We adopted a Bayesian decision theory approach in combination with path analysis to evaluate interactions between Bromus tectorum (downy brome, cheatgrass) and Cephus cinctus (wheat stem sawfly) in wheat (Triticum aestivum) systems. We assessed their joint responses to weed management tactics, seeding rates, and cultivar tolerance to insect stem boring or competition. Our results indicated that C. cinctus oviposition behavior varied as a function of B. tectorum pressure. Crop responses were more readily explained by the joint effects of management tactics on both categories of pests and their interactions than just by the direct impact of any particular management scheme on yield. In accordance, a C. cinctus tolerant variety should be planted at a low seeding rate under high insect pressure. However as B. tectorum levels increase, the C. cinctus tolerant variety should be replaced by a competitive and drought tolerant cultivar at high seeding rates despite C. cinctus infestation. This study exemplifies the necessity of

  20. Interacting agricultural pests and their effect on crop yield: application of a Bayesian decision theory approach to the joint management of Bromus tectorum and Cephus cinctus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keren, Ilai N; Menalled, Fabian D; Weaver, David K; Robison-Cox, James F

    2015-01-01

    Worldwide, the landscape homogeneity of extensive monocultures that characterizes conventional agriculture has resulted in the development of specialized and interacting multitrophic pest complexes. While integrated pest management emphasizes the need to consider the ecological context where multiple species coexist, management recommendations are often based on single-species tactics. This approach may not provide satisfactory solutions when confronted with the complex interactions occurring between organisms at the same or different trophic levels. Replacement of the single-species management model with more sophisticated, multi-species programs requires an understanding of the direct and indirect interactions occurring between the crop and all categories of pests. We evaluated a modeling framework to make multi-pest management decisions taking into account direct and indirect interactions among species belonging to different trophic levels. We adopted a Bayesian decision theory approach in combination with path analysis to evaluate interactions between Bromus tectorum (downy brome, cheatgrass) and Cephus cinctus (wheat stem sawfly) in wheat (Triticum aestivum) systems. We assessed their joint responses to weed management tactics, seeding rates, and cultivar tolerance to insect stem boring or competition. Our results indicated that C. cinctus oviposition behavior varied as a function of B. tectorum pressure. Crop responses were more readily explained by the joint effects of management tactics on both categories of pests and their interactions than just by the direct impact of any particular management scheme on yield. In accordance, a C. cinctus tolerant variety should be planted at a low seeding rate under high insect pressure. However as B. tectorum levels increase, the C. cinctus tolerant variety should be replaced by a competitive and drought tolerant cultivar at high seeding rates despite C. cinctus infestation. This study exemplifies the necessity of

  1. Interacting agricultural pests and their effect on crop yield: application of a Bayesian decision theory approach to the joint management of Bromus tectorum and Cephus cinctus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilai N Keren

    Full Text Available Worldwide, the landscape homogeneity of extensive monocultures that characterizes conventional agriculture has resulted in the development of specialized and interacting multitrophic pest complexes. While integrated pest management emphasizes the need to consider the ecological context where multiple species coexist, management recommendations are often based on single-species tactics. This approach may not provide satisfactory solutions when confronted with the complex interactions occurring between organisms at the same or different trophic levels. Replacement of the single-species management model with more sophisticated, multi-species programs requires an understanding of the direct and indirect interactions occurring between the crop and all categories of pests. We evaluated a modeling framework to make multi-pest management decisions taking into account direct and indirect interactions among species belonging to different trophic levels. We adopted a Bayesian decision theory approach in combination with path analysis to evaluate interactions between Bromus tectorum (downy brome, cheatgrass and Cephus cinctus (wheat stem sawfly in wheat (Triticum aestivum systems. We assessed their joint responses to weed management tactics, seeding rates, and cultivar tolerance to insect stem boring or competition. Our results indicated that C. cinctus oviposition behavior varied as a function of B. tectorum pressure. Crop responses were more readily explained by the joint effects of management tactics on both categories of pests and their interactions than just by the direct impact of any particular management scheme on yield. In accordance, a C. cinctus tolerant variety should be planted at a low seeding rate under high insect pressure. However as B. tectorum levels increase, the C. cinctus tolerant variety should be replaced by a competitive and drought tolerant cultivar at high seeding rates despite C. cinctus infestation. This study exemplifies the

  2. The Evaluation of the Adequacy of PRA Results for Risk-informed Decision Makings With Respect to Incompleteness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Kyungmin; Jae, Moosung

    2007-01-01

    PRA(Probabilistic Risk Assessment), as a quantitative tool, has many strengths as well as weaknesses. There are several limitations on the use of PRA techniques for risk modeling and analysis. First, the true values of most model inputs are unknown. Ideally, probability distribution models are well developed and assigned to the unknown input parameters to reflect the analyst's state of knowledge of the values of this input parameter. The problem of overconfidence and lack of confidence in the values of certain model input parameters can lead to inaccurate PRA results. Secondly, the analyst's lack of knowledge of a system's practical application as opposed to its theoretical operation can lead to modeling errors. The quality of PRAs has been addressed by a number of regulatory and industry organizations Some have argued that a good PRA should be a complete, full scope, three level PRA, while others have claimed that the quality of a PRA should be measured with respect to the application and decision supported. we show by way of an example that the adequacy of a PRA results is important to risk-informed decision making process and should be measured with respect to the application and decision supported

  3. Effect of an Educational Intervention Based on Construal Level Theory on Decision Making in Adolescents with Premenstrual Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fazllollah Ghofranipour

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In this study, the existing challenge about the association of construal level and temporal distance was examined. Doing so, the effect of two types of educational intervention on progress of decision making stages in students with premenstrual syndrome (PMS was studied, based on theoretical concepts of construal level. Materials and Methods: The present study is a randomized field trial research conducted on 1578 high school students. A total of 255 students in the second stage of the precaution adoption process model were chosen randomly. They then went through educational intervention based on either low or high construal levels of relaxation method. Results: Subjects in the intervention group showed a higher decision-making stage progression than in control group (p<0.001. The two-stage progression was significantly salient in low construal level-based intervention group (p=0.012. None of the demographic, premenstrual, and premenstrual syndrome severity characteristics were related to this progression. Conclusion: Inducing low construal level causes an individual shift toward desired action more rapidly. That is, there is a correlation between construal level and temporal distance. To accelerate the adoption of any health behavior, temporal distance can be taken as a basic and essential topic.

  4. New techniques and results for worldline simulations of lattice field theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Mario; Orasch, Oliver; Gattringer, Christof

    2018-03-01

    We use the complex ø4 field at finite density as a model system for developing further techniques based on worldline formulations of lattice field theories. More specifically we: 1) Discuss new variants of the worm algorithm for updating the ø4 theory and related systems with site weights. 2) Explore the possibility of canonical simulations in the worldline formulation. 3) Study the connection of 2-particle condensation at low temperature to scattering parameters of the theory.

  5. Protein a Immunoadsorption May Hamper the Decision to Transplant Due to Interference With CDC Crossmatch Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koefoed-Nielsen, Pernille; Bistrup, Claus; Christiansen, Mette

    2017-01-01

    using a highly sensitive time-resolved fluorescent assay. In conclusion, the results emphasize the importance of carefully considering CDC crossmatch results subsequent to IA, before a planned transplantation is either postponed or cancelled. J. Clin. Apheresis 32:163-169, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals...

  6. The role of eABR with intracochlear test electrode in decision making between cochlear and brainstem implants: preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinar, Betul Cicek; Yarali, Mehmet; Atay, Gamze; Bajin, Munir Demir; Sennaroglu, Gonca; Sennaroglu, Levent

    2017-09-01

    The objective of the study was to discuss the findings of intraoperative electrically evoked auditory brainstem response (eABR) test results with a recently designed intracochlear test electrode (ITE) in terms of their relation to decisions of cochlear or auditory brainstem implantation. This clinical study was conducted in Hacettepe University, Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery and Department of Audiology. Subjects were selected from inner ear malformation (IEM) database. Eleven subjects with profound sensorineural hearing loss were included in the current study with age range from 1 year 3 months to 4 years 3 months for children with prelingual hearing loss. There was only one 42-year-old post-lingual subject. eABR was recorded with an ITE and intraoperatively with an original cochlear implant (CI) electrode in 11 cases with different IEMs. Findings of eABR with ITE and their relation to the decision for CI or auditory brainstem implant (ABI) are discussed. Positive eABR test results were found to be dependent on close to normal cochlear structures and auditory nerve. The probability of positive result decreases with increasing degree of malformation severity. The prediction value of eABR via ITE on decision for hearing restoration was found to be questionable in this study. The results of eABR with ITE have predictive value on what we will get with the actual CI electrode. ITE appears to stimulate the cochlea like an actual CI. If the eABR is positive, the results are reliable. However, if eABR is negative, the results should be evaluated with preoperative audiological testing and MRI findings.

  7. On the Representation Theory of the Ultrahyperbolic BMS group UHB(2, 2). I. General Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melas, Evangelos

    2015-01-01

    The Bondi-Metzner-Sachs (BMS) group B is the common asymptotic group of all asymptotically flat (lorentzian) space-times, and is the best candidate for the universal symmetry group of General Relativity (G.R.). B admits generalizations to real space-times of any signature, to complex space-times, and supersymmetric generalizations for any space- time dimension. With this motivation McCarthy constructed the strongly continuous unitary irreducible representations (IRs) of B some time ago, and he identified B(2,2) as the generalization of B appropriate to the to the 'ultrahyperbolic signature' (+,+,−,−) and asymptotic flatness in null directions. We continue this programme by introducing a new group UHB(2, 2) in the group theoretical study of ultrahyperbolic G.R. which happens to be a proper subgroup of B(2, 2). In this short paper we report on the first general results on the representation theory of UHB(2, 2). In particular the main general results are that the all little groups of UHB(2, 2) are compact and that the Wigner-Mackey's inducing construction is exhaustive despite the fact that UHB(2, 2) is not locally compact in the employed Hilbert topology. At the end of the paper we comment on the significance of these results

  8. Risk of false decision on conformity of a multicomponent material when test results of the components' content are correlated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca R; da Silva, Ricardo J N B; Hibbert, D Brynn

    2017-11-01

    The probability of a false decision on conformity of a multicomponent material due to measurement uncertainty is discussed when test results are correlated. Specification limits of the components' content of such a material generate a multivariate specification interval/domain. When true values of components' content and corresponding test results are modelled by multivariate distributions (e.g. by multivariate normal distributions), a total global risk of a false decision on the material conformity can be evaluated based on calculation of integrals of their joint probability density function. No transformation of the raw data is required for that. A total specific risk can be evaluated as the joint posterior cumulative function of true values of a specific batch or lot lying outside the multivariate specification domain, when the vector of test results, obtained for the lot, is inside this domain. It was shown, using a case study of four components under control in a drug, that the correlation influence on the risk value is not easily predictable. To assess this influence, the evaluated total risk values were compared with those calculated for independent test results and also with those assuming much stronger correlation than that observed. While the observed statistically significant correlation did not lead to a visible difference in the total risk values in comparison to the independent test results, the stronger correlation among the variables caused either the total risk decreasing or its increasing, depending on the actual values of the test results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Men in Nursing: Intention, Intentionality, Caring, and Healing: Emphasis on the Results of a Grounded Theory Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahourek, Rothlyn P

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to amplify the results section of a grounded theory study on how men in nursing view and experience intention, intentionality, caring, and healing. This is the second grounded theory study addressing intentionality in healing. The first study included a female population. The theory that was generated-Intentionality: The Matrix of Healing (IMH)-is examined with these new data. The results are compared with issues generally faced by men in nursing and how they described their beliefs and experiences with intentionality and healing. The theory (IMH) is supported; the importance of action in this cohort was an additional emphasis. This article provides an expanded view of men in nursing and their experiences as nurses and with intentionality, caring, and healing and has implications for the development of holistic nursing theory as well.

  10. Understanding surgery choices for breast cancer: how might the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Common Sense Model contribute to decision support interventions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivell, Stephanie; Edwards, Adrian; Elwyn, Glyn; Manstead, Antony S. R.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Objective  To describe the evidence about factors influencing breast cancer patients’ surgery choices and the implications for designing decision support in reference to an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and the Common Sense Model of Illness Representations (CSM). Background  A wide range of factors are known to influence the surgery choices of women diagnosed with early breast cancer facing the choice of mastectomy or breast conservation surgery with radiotherapy. However, research does not always reflect the complexities of decision making and is often atheoretical. A theoretical approach, as provided by the CSM and the TPB, could help to identify and tailor support by focusing on patients’ representations of their breast cancer and predicting surgery choices. Design  Literature search and narrative synthesis of data. Synthesis  Twenty‐six studies reported women’s surgery choices to be influenced by perceived clinical outcomes of surgery, appearance and body image, treatment concerns, involvement in decision making and preferences of clinicians. These factors can be mapped onto the key constructs of both the TPB and CSM and used to inform the design and development of decision support interventions to ensure accurate information is provided in areas most important to patients. Conclusions  The TPB and CSM have the potential to inform the design of decision support for breast cancer patients, with accurate and clear information that avoids leading patients to make decisions they may come to regret. Further research is needed examining how the components of the extended TPB and CSM account for patients’ surgery choices. PMID:20579123

  11. Feasibility and acceptability of shared decision-making to promote alcohol behavior change among women Veterans: Results from focus groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Traci H; Wright, Patricia; White, Penny; Booth, Brenda M; Cucciare, Michael A

    2017-01-01

    Although rates of unhealthy drinking are high among women Veterans with mental health comorbidities, most women Veterans with mental comorbidities who present to primary care with unhealthy drinking do not receive alcohol-related care. Barriers to alcohol-related treatment could be reduced through patient-centered approaches to care, such as shared decision-making. We assessed the feasibility and acceptability of a telephone-delivered shared decision-making intervention for promoting alcohol behavior change in women Veterans with unhealthy drinking and co-morbid depression and/or probable post-traumatic stress disorder. We used 3, 2-hour focus group discussions with 19 women Veterans to identify barriers and solicit recommendations for using the intervention with women Veterans who present to primary care with unhealthy drinking and mental health comorbidities. Transcripts from the focus groups were qualitatively analyzed using template analysis. Although participants perceived that the intervention was feasible and acceptable for the targeted patient population, they identified the treatment delivery modality, length of telephone sessions, and some of the option grid content as potential barriers. Facilitators included strategies for enhancing the telephone-delivered shared decision-making sessions and diversifying the treatment options contained in the option grids. Focus group feedback resulted in preliminary adaptations to the intervention that are mindful of women Veterans' individual preferences for care and realistic in the everyday context of their busy lives.

  12. Impact of a web-based prostate cancer treatment decision aid on patient-reported decision process parameters: results from the Prostate Cancer Patient Centered Care trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuypers, Maarten; Lamers, Romy E D; Kil, Paul J M; van de Poll-Franse, Lonneke V; de Vries, Marieke

    2018-05-12

    To compare patients' evaluation of the treatment decision-making process in localized prostate cancer between counseling that included an online decision aid (DA) and standard counseling. Eighteen Dutch hospitals were randomized to DA counseling (n = 235) or the control group with standard counseling (n = 101) in a pragmatic, cluster randomized controlled trial. The DA was provided to patients at, or soon after diagnosis. Decisional conflict, involvement, knowledge, and satisfaction with information were assessed with a questionnaire after treatment decision-making. Anxiety and depression served as covariates. The levels of decision involvement and conflict were comparable between patients in both groups. Patients with a DA felt more knowledgeable but scored equally well on a knowledge test as patients without a DA. Small significant negative effects were found on satisfaction with information and preparation for decision-making. A preference for print over online and depression and anxiety symptoms was negatively associated with satisfaction and conflict scores in the DA group. The DA aimed to support shared decision-making, while outcomes for a majority of DA users were comparable to patients who received standard counseling. Patients, who are less comfortable with the online DA format or experience anxiety or depression symptoms, could require more guidance toward shared decision-making. To evaluate long-term DA effects, follow-up evaluation on treatment satisfaction and decisional regret will be done.

  13. Determining the Value of Two Biologic Drugs for Chronic Inflammatory Skin Diseases: Results of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zozaya, Néboa; Martínez-Galdeano, Lucía; Alcalá, Bleric; Armario-Hita, Jose Carlos; Carmona, Concepción; Carrascosa, Jose Manuel; Herranz, Pedro; Lamas, María Jesús; Trapero-Bertran, Marta; Hidalgo-Vega, Álvaro

    2018-05-29

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a tool that systematically considers multiple factors relevant to health decision-making. The aim of this study was to use an MCDA to assess the value of dupilumab for severe atopic dermatitis compared with secukinumab for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis in Spain. Following the EVIDEM (Evidence and Value: Impact on DEcision Making) methodology, the estimated value of both interventions was obtained by means of an additive linear model that combined the individual weighting (between 1 and 5) of each criterion with the individual scoring of each intervention in each criterion. Dupilumab was evaluated against placebo, while secukinumab was evaluated against placebo, etanercept and ustekinumab. A retest was performed to assess the reproducibility of weights, scores and value estimates. The overall MCDA value estimate for dupilumab versus placebo was 0.51 ± 0.14. This value was higher than those obtained for secukinumab: 0.48 ± 0.15 versus placebo, 0.45 ± 0.15 versus etanercept and 0.39 ± 0.18 versus ustekinumab. The highest-value contribution was reported by the patients' group, followed by the clinical professionals and the decision makers. A fundamental element that explained the difference in the scoring between pathologies was the availability of therapeutic alternatives. The retest confirmed the consistency and replicability of the analysis. Under this methodology, and assuming similar economic costs per patient for both treatments, the results indicated that the overall value estimated of dupilumab for severe atopic dermatitis was similar to, or slightly higher than, that of secukinumab for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis.

  14. A state-of-the-art review of transportation systems evaluation techniques relevant to air transportation, volume 1. [urban planning and urban transportation using decision theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haefner, L. E.

    1975-01-01

    Mathematical and philosophical approaches are presented for evaluation and implementation of ground and air transportation systems. Basic decision processes are examined that are used for cost analyses and planning (i.e, statistical decision theory, linear and dynamic programming, optimization, game theory). The effects on the environment and the community that a transportation system may have are discussed and modelled. Algorithmic structures are examined and selected bibliographic annotations are included. Transportation dynamic models were developed. Citizen participation in transportation projects (i.e, in Maryland and Massachusetts) is discussed. The relevance of the modelling and evaluation approaches to air transportation (i.e, airport planning) is examined in a case study in St. Louis, Missouri.

  15. A CFD analysis of the actuator disc flow compared with momentum theory results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aagaard Madsen, H. [Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark)

    1997-08-01

    The blade element momentum (BEM) model is still used in many aerodynamic and aeroelastic models for design and load calculations. This is due to its simplicity, robustness, computational speed and good accuracy for a wide range of applications. The question about accuracy is however closely connected to the airfoil section data and therefore correlation/lack of correlation with experimental results can both be due to the specific input data used and due to the induced velocity field predicted by the BEM method. It is also well-known that the BEM method for some applications is used under operational conditions that violates the assumptions made for the development of the model, e.g. operation in yaw and operation at high loading. The main objective with the present study is to investigate this part of the BEM method (the momentum strip theory MST) on which the determination of the induced velocities is based. This is done by comparing the results of the MST model with velocities predicted on basis of the Navier Stokes equations for the flow through an actuator disc. (au)

  16. Verification of Small Hole Theory for Application to Wire Chaffing Resulting in Shield Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuet, Stefan R.; Timucin, Dogan A.; Wheeler, Kevin R.

    2011-01-01

    Our work is focused upon developing methods for wire chafe fault detection through the use of reflectometry to assess shield integrity. When shielded electrical aircraft wiring first begins to chafe typically the resulting evidence is small hole(s) in the shielding. We are focused upon developing algorithms and the signal processing necessary to first detect these small holes prior to incurring damage to the inner conductors. Our approach has been to develop a first principles physics model combined with probabilistic inference, and to verify this model with laboratory experiments as well as through simulation. Previously we have presented the electromagnetic small-hole theory and how it might be applied to coaxial cable. In this presentation, we present our efforts to verify this theoretical approach with high-fidelity electromagnetic simulations (COMSOL). Laboratory observations are used to parameterize the computationally efficient theoretical model with probabilistic inference resulting in quantification of hole size and location. Our efforts in characterizing faults in coaxial cable are subsequently leading to fault detection in shielded twisted pair as well as analysis of intermittent faulty connectors using similar techniques.

  17. First results on the representation theory of the Ultrahyperbolic BMS group UHB(2, 2)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melas, Evangelos

    2016-01-01

    The Bondi–Metzner–Sachs (BMS) group B is the common asymptotic group of all asymptotically flat (lorentzian) space–times, and is the best candidate for the universal symmetry group of General Relativity (G.R.). B admits generalizations to real space–times of any signature, to complex space–times, and supersymmetric generalizations for any space— time dimension. With this motivation McCarthy constructed the strongly continuous unitary irreducible representations (IRs) of B some time ago, and he identified B(2,2) as the generalization of B appropriate to the to the ultrahyperbolic signature (+,+,−,−) and asymptotic flatness in null directions. We continue this programme by introducing a new group UHB(2, 2) in the group theoretical study of ultrahyperbolic G.R. which happens to be a proper subgroup of B(2, 2). We report on the first general results on the representation theory of UHB(2, 2). In particular the main general results are that the all little groups of UHB(2, 2) are compact and that the Wigner–Mackeys inducing construction is exhaustive despite the fact that UHB(2, 2) is not locally compact in the employed Hilbert topology. (paper)

  18. From electroweak theory to the primordial universe. A synthesis of some experimental results; De la theorie electrofaible a l'univers primordial. Synthese de quelques resultats experimentaux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ealet, A

    2004-12-15

    Particle physic is based on a theory which can be tested on the current large colliders. Measurements are in a very good agreement with this electroweak theory and no deviation is observed to indicate new physics. What is surprising today is that none of its results agrees with what is known from our universe, neither to explain the primordial baryogenesis, neither to explain the acceleration of the expansion of the Universe. In this work, I come back on some results obtained in the Lep collider, to test the electroweak theory (Higgs and W boson production) and on some measurements of CP violation. I compare them with what can be extrapolated in term of primordial baryogenesis and dark energy density and show that there is no possible agreement in the Standard Model. I finish by some experimental and theoretical views to answer this fundamental question. (author)

  19. [Test your decision-making. When to do endodontic retreatment? Results of a study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryanpour, S; D'Hoore, W; Van Nieuwenhuysen, J P

    2000-01-01

    The goals of this survey were to determine the most frequent therapeutic option and to evaluate the consensus among a sample of Belgian practitioners managing the same simulated cases of root treated teeth. On average, conservative options (nonsurgical retreatment 35.27% and no retreatment 29.61%) are the most selected alternatives. Surgical options and extraction respectively constitute 21.18% and 13% of the treatment propositions. As expected, the presence of radiographic and/or clinical signs resulted in a more aggressive attitude, but the presence of symptoms does not seem to be a valid reason for reintervention. The results of the study demonstrate considerable interindividual variations in clinical management of root treated teeth, regardless of personal factors, such as gender, years of experience and graduation institution. Even if a consensus appears within a group of professionals, it is not necessarily applied by a majority of practitioners; this contributes certainly to the explanation of the geographical or institutional variations noted in the medical practices.

  20. How animals move along? Exactly solvable model of superdiffusive spread resulting from animal's decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilles, Paulo F C; Petrovskii, Sergei V

    2016-07-01

    Patterns of individual animal movement have been a focus of considerable attention recently. Of particular interest is a question how different macroscopic properties of animal dispersal result from the stochastic processes occurring on the microscale of the individual behavior. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive analytical study of a model where the animal changes the movement velocity as a result of its behavioral response to environmental stochasticity. The stochasticity is assumed to manifest itself through certain signals, and the animal modifies its velocity as a response to the signals. We consider two different cases, i.e. where the change in the velocity is or is not correlated to its current value. We show that in both cases the early, transient stage of the animal movement is super-diffusive, i.e. ballistic. The large-time asymptotic behavior appears to be diffusive in the uncorrelated case but super-ballistic in the correlated case. We also calculate analytically the dispersal kernel of the movement and show that, whilst it converge to a normal distribution in the large-time limit, it possesses a fatter tail during the transient stage, i.e. at early and intermediate time. Since the transients are known to be highly relevant in ecology, our findings may indicate that the fat tails and superdiffusive spread that are sometimes observed in the movement data may be a feature of the transitional dynamics rather than an inherent property of the animal movement.

  1. Effective Hamiltonian theory: recent formal results and non-nuclear applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandow, B.H.

    1981-01-01

    Effective Hamiltonian theory is discussed from the points of view of the unitary transformation method and degenerate perturbation theory. It is shown that the two approaches are identical term by term. The main features of a formulation of the coupled-cluster method for open-shell systems are outlined. Finally, recent applications of the many-body linked-cluster form of degenerate perturbation theory are described: the derivation of effective spin Hamiltonians in magnetic insulator systems, the derivation and calculation ab initio of effective π-electron Hamiltonians for planar conjugated hydrocarbon molecules, and understanding the so-called valence fluctuation phenomenon exhibited by certain rare earth compounds

  2. Theory, simulation and experimental results of the acoustic detection of magnetization changes in superparamagnetic iron oxide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borgert Jörn

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Magnetic Particle Imaging is a novel method for medical imaging. It can be used to measure the local concentration of a tracer material based on iron oxide nanoparticles. While the resulting images show the distribution of the tracer material in phantoms or anatomic structures of subjects under examination, no information about the tissue is being acquired. To expand Magnetic Particle Imaging into the detection of soft tissue properties, a new method is proposed, which detects acoustic emissions caused by magnetization changes in superparamagnetic iron oxide. Methods Starting from an introduction to the theory of acoustically detected Magnetic Particle Imaging, a comparison to magnetically detected Magnetic Particle Imaging is presented. Furthermore, an experimental setup for the detection of acoustic emissions is described, which consists of the necessary field generating components, i.e. coils and permanent magnets, as well as a calibrated microphone to perform the detection. Results The estimated detection limit of acoustic Magnetic Particle Imaging is comparable to the detection limit of magnetic resonance imaging for iron oxide nanoparticles, whereas both are inferior to the theoretical detection limit for magnetically detected Magnetic Particle Imaging. Sufficient data was acquired to perform a comparison to the simulated data. The experimental results are in agreement with the simulations. The remaining differences can be well explained. Conclusions It was possible to demonstrate the detection of acoustic emissions of magnetic tracer materials in Magnetic Particle Imaging. The processing of acoustic emission in addition to the tracer distribution acquired by magnetic detection might allow for the extraction of mechanical tissue parameters. Such parameters, like for example the velocity of sound and the attenuation caused by the tissue, might also be used to support and improve ultrasound imaging. However, the method

  3. Theory-informed design of values clarification methods : A cognitive psychological perspective on patient health-related decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieterse, A.H.; de Vries, M.; Kunneman, M.; Stiggelbout, A.M.; Feldman-Stewart, D.

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare decisions, particularly those involving weighing benefits and harms that may significantly affect quality and/or length of life, should reflect patients' preferences. To support patients in making choices, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCM) in particular have

  4. Management, innovation and business results under the Resources and Capabilities Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Fernádez Palma

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Different lines of thought, which relate to how organizations can achieve their competitive advantage, can be found within the general theory of management. On the one hand, there are those who argue that the knowledge and analysis of the environment and the industry in which the organization participates is of vital importance and, on the other hand, those who believe that the main source of competitiveness is concentrated within the organizations themselves. In the latter case, the Resources and Capabilities approach asserts that such internal elements are a real and distinctive source of competitive advantage. It supports the existence of tangible and intangible assets, for example the managerial skills of the managers, the organizational processes and the internal procedures, which are key elements for effective operation and for the achievement of the company´s objectives. Therefore, the general purpose of this research is to determine if there is a relationship between a set of internal capabilities in a company and its respective financial results. An exploratory, descriptive and correlational study was carried out using secondary information about the main idea, as well as a descriptive survey taken by 12 medium-sized companies in the city of Punta Arenas. Through the study it was possible to identify and describe the main relationships between the indicated variables.

  5. Comparison of China's oil import risk. Results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Gang; Liu, Lan-Cui; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the international oil price has fluctuated violently, bringing about huge risk for the international oil trade. In fact, the risk of crude oil and petroleum product imports is different because of the different import origins and prices. Which import risk is lower for China? From the perspective of oil supply security, how should China portfolio crude oil and petroleum product imports to minimize its oil import risk? Using portfolio theory and a diversification index approach, this paper compares and analyzes the supply, price and transport risks of crude oil and petroleum product imports. Our results show that the following: (1) Specific risk (diversification risk) and marine transport risk of China's petroleum product imports are lower than that of crude oil imports. (2) The average rate of return of China's petroleum product imports is higher than that of crude oil imports. Moreover, the average import price variance of petroleum product imports is lower than that of crude oil imports. Thus, the systematic risk (price risk) of petroleum products is lower too. Therefore, from the perspective of oil supply security, China should increase petroleum product imports to decrease its oil import risk. (author)

  6. Treatment decisions and employment of breast cancer patients: Results of a population-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagsi, Reshma; Abrahamse, Paul H; Lee, Kamaria L; Wallner, Lauren P; Janz, Nancy K; Hamilton, Ann S; Ward, Kevin C; Morrow, Monica; Kurian, Allison W; Friese, Christopher R; Hawley, Sarah T; Katz, Steven J

    2017-12-15

    Many patients with breast cancer work for pay at the time of their diagnosis, and the treatment plan may threaten their livelihood. Understanding work experiences in a contemporary population-based sample is necessary to inform initiatives to reduce the burden of cancer care. Women who were 20 to 79 years old and had been diagnosed with stage 0 to II breast cancer, as reported to the Georgia and Los Angeles Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries in 2014-2015, were surveyed. Of the 3672 eligible women, 2502 responded (68%); 1006 who reported working before their diagnosis were analyzed. Multivariate models evaluated correlates of missing work for >1 month and stopping work altogether versus missing work for ≤1 month. In this diverse sample, most patients (62%) underwent lumpectomy; 16% underwent unilateral mastectomy (8% with reconstruction); and 23% underwent bilateral mastectomy (19% with reconstruction). One-third (33%) received chemotherapy. Most (84%) worked full-time before their diagnosis; however, only 50% had paid sick leave, 39% had disability benefits, and 38% had flexible work schedules. Surgical treatment was strongly correlated with missing >1 month of work (odds ratio [OR] for bilateral mastectomy with reconstruction vs lumpectomy, 7.8) and with stopping work altogether (OR for bilateral mastectomy with reconstruction vs lumpectomy, 3.1). Chemotherapy receipt (OR for missing >1 month, 1.3; OR for stopping work altogether, 3.9) and race (OR for missing >1 month for blacks vs whites, 2.0; OR for stopping work altogether for blacks vs whites, 1.7) also correlated. Those with paid sick leave were less likely to stop working (OR, 0.5), as were those with flexible schedules (OR, 0.3). Working patients who received more aggressive treatments were more likely to experience substantial employment disruptions. Cancer 2017;123:4791-9. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  7. Role of affect in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandyopadhyay, Debarati; Pammi, V S Chandrasekhar; Srinivasan, Narayanan

    2013-01-01

    Emotion plays a major role in influencing our everyday cognitive and behavioral functions, including decision making. We introduce different ways in which emotions are characterized in terms of the way they influence or elicited by decision making. This chapter discusses different theories that have been proposed to explain the role of emotions in judgment and decision making. We also discuss incidental emotional influences, both long-duration influences like mood and short-duration influences by emotional context present prior to or during decision making. We present and discuss results from a study with emotional pictures presented prior to decision making and how that influences both decision processes and postdecision experience as a function of uncertainty. We conclude with a summary of the work on emotions and decision making in the context of decision-making theories and our work on incidental emotions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Game theory an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Barron, E N

    2013-01-01

    An exciting new edition of the popular introduction to game theory and its applications The thoroughly expanded Second Edition presents a unique, hands-on approach to game theory. While most books on the subject are too abstract or too basic for mathematicians, Game Theory: An Introduction, Second Edition offers a blend of theory and applications, allowing readers to use theory and software to create and analyze real-world decision-making models. With a rigorous, yet accessible, treatment of mathematics, the book focuses on results that can be used to

  9. Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2014-01-01

    The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

  10. Developing and Evaluating Communication Strategies to Support Informed Decisions and Practice Based on Evidence (DECIDE): protocol and preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treweek, Shaun; Oxman, Andrew D; Alderson, Philip; Bossuyt, Patrick M; Brandt, Linn; Brożek, Jan; Davoli, Marina; Flottorp, Signe; Harbour, Robin; Hill, Suzanne; Liberati, Alessandro; Liira, Helena; Schünemann, Holger J; Rosenbaum, Sarah; Thornton, Judith; Vandvik, Per Olav; Alonso-Coello, Pablo

    2013-01-09

    Healthcare decision makers face challenges when using guidelines, including understanding the quality of the evidence or the values and preferences upon which recommendations are made, which are often not clear. GRADE is a systematic approach towards assessing the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations in healthcare. GRADE also gives advice on how to go from evidence to decisions. It has been developed to address the weaknesses of other grading systems and is now widely used internationally. The Developing and Evaluating Communication Strategies to Support Informed Decisions and Practice Based on Evidence (DECIDE) consortium (http://www.decide-collaboration.eu/), which includes members of the GRADE Working Group and other partners, will explore methods to ensure effective communication of evidence-based recommendations targeted at key stakeholders: healthcare professionals, policymakers, and managers, as well as patients and the general public. Surveys and interviews with guideline producers and other stakeholders will explore how presentation of the evidence could be improved to better meet their information needs. We will collect further stakeholder input from advisory groups, via consultations and user testing; this will be done across a wide range of healthcare systems in Europe, North America, and other countries. Targeted communication strategies will be developed, evaluated in randomized trials, refined, and assessed during the development of real guidelines. Results of the DECIDE project will improve the communication of evidence-based healthcare recommendations. Building on the work of the GRADE Working Group, DECIDE will develop and evaluate methods that address communication needs of guideline users. The project will produce strategies for communicating recommendations that have been rigorously evaluated in diverse settings, and it will support the transfer of research into practice in healthcare systems globally.

  11. Fostering shared decision making by occupational therapists and workers involved in accidents resulting in persistent musculoskeletal disorders: A study protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stacey Dawn

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background From many empirical and theoretical points of view, the implementation of shared decision making (SDM in work rehabilitation for pain due to a musculoskeletal disorder (MSD is justified but typically the SDM model applies to a one on one encounter between a healthcare provider and a patient and not to an interdisciplinary team. Objectives To adapt and implement an SDM program adapted to the realities of work rehabilitation for pain associated with a MSD. More specific objectives are to adapt an SDM program applicable to existing rehabilitation programs, and to evaluate the extent of implementation of the SDM program in four rehabilitation centres. Method For objective one, we will use a mixed perspective combining a theory-based development program/intervention and a user-based perspective. The users are the occupational therapists (OTs and clinical coordinators. The strategies for developing an SDM program will include consulting the scientific literature and group consensus with clinicians-experts. A sample of convenience of eight OTs, four clinical coordinators and four psychologists all of whom have been working full-time in MSD rehabilitation for more than two years will be recruited from four collaborating rehabilitation centres. For objective two, using the same criteria as for objective one, we will first train eight OTs in SDM. Second, using a descriptive design, the extent to which the SDM program has been implemented will be assessed through observations of the SDM process. The observation data will be triangulated with the dyadic working alliance questionnaire, and findings from a final individual interview with each OT. A total of five patients per trained OT will be recruited, for a total of 40 patients. Patients will be eligible if they have a work-related disability for more than 12 weeks due to musculoskeletal pain and plan to start their work rehabilitation programs. Discussion This study will be the first

  12. Decision threshold associated with multiple measurements. Application to the synthesis of the environment monitoring results; Seuil de decision associe a des mesures multiples. Application a la synthese des resultats de surveillance de l'environnement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vivier, A. [CEA, Institut national des sciences et techniques nucleaires, Centre de Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Manificat, G. [IRSN, Direction de l' environnement et de l' intervention, Service d' etude et de surveillance de la radioactivite dans l' environnement, BP 40035, 78116 Le Vesinet Cedex (France); Picolo, J.L.; Fleury, S. [IRSN, Direction de l' environnement et de l' intervention, Service de traitement des echantillons et de metrologie pour l' environnement, BP 40035, 78116 Le Vesinet Cedex (France); Mokili, M. [Laboratoire SUBATECH - UMR 6457, ecole des Mines de Nantes, IN2P3/CNRS, Universite de Nantes, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, La Chantrerie, BP 20722, 44307 Nantes Cedex 03 (France); Guo, X. [ORTEC-AMETEK Inc, 801 S. Illinois Ave., Oak Ridge, TN 37830 (United States)

    2012-01-15

    When the sample activity is measured for various reasons several times, then with each measurement can be associated an individual decision threshold and limit of detection. Each measurement can be analyzed through its own decision threshold. The whole measurements can sometimes present contradictory results, some measurements being lower than the decision threshold and other higher. The problem then arises to build a decision threshold and a detection limit taking into account all the individual results, and to decide if the radioactivity is finally detected or not. It is interesting to note that it is possible sometimes that the decision threshold taking account all results makes it possible to decide that the radioactivity is present whereas the totality of the individual results are negative in terms of individual decision threshold. The purpose of this article is to show how these thresholds and these coherent limits cumulated can be determined in way according to the experimental conditions. In a general way a rigorous method of cumulating makes it possible to systematically decrease the decision threshold and limit of detection in terms of activity. This approach has interesting applications in gamma spectrometry with multi-emitters, discharge or periodical environmental measurements. On the basis of measurements realized by the IRSN within the framework of the national monitoring of the environment, we will see the potential impact of these methods on the final assessments. (authors)

  13. Theory-informed design of values clarification methods: A cognitive psychological perspective on patient health-related decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Pieterse, A.H.; de Vries, M.; Kunneman, M.; Stiggelbout, A.M.; Feldman-Stewart, D.

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare decisions, particularly those involving weighing benefits and harms that may significantly affect quality and/or length of life, should reflect patients' preferences. To support patients in making choices, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCM) in particular have been developed. VCM intend to help patients to determine the aspects of the choices that are important to their selection of a preferred option. Several types of VCM exist. However, they are often des...

  14. New Results in {mathcal {N}}=2 N = 2 Theories from Non-perturbative String

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonelli, Giulio; Grassi, Alba; Tanzini, Alessandro

    2018-03-01

    We describe the magnetic phase of SU(N) $\\mathcal{N}=2$ Super Yang-Mills theories in the self-dual Omega background in terms of a new class of multi-cut matrix models. These arise from a non-perturbative completion of topological strings in the dual four dimensional limit which engineers the gauge theory in the strongly coupled magnetic frame. The corresponding spectral determinants provide natural candidates for the tau functions of isomonodromy problems for flat spectral connections associated to the Seiberg-Witten geometry.

  15. Comparison of diffusion and transport theory analysis with experimental results in fast breeder test reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathyabama, N.; Mohanakrishnan, P.; Lee, S.M.

    1994-01-01

    A systematic analysis has been performed by 3 dimensional diffusion and transport methods to calculate the measured control rod worths and subassembly wise power distribution in fast breeder test reactor. Geometry corrections (rectangular to hexagonal and diffusion to transport corrections are estimated for multiplication factors and control rod worths. Calculated control rod worths by diffusion and transport theory are nearly the same and 10% above measured values. Power distribution in the core periphery is over predicted (15%) by diffusion theory. But, this over prediction reduces to 8% by use of the S N method. (authors). 9 refs., 4 tabs., 3 fig

  16. The impact of radiologists' expertise on screen results decisions in a CT lung cancer screening trial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heuvelmans, Marjolein A.; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn [University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Center for Medical Imaging - North East Netherlands, Groningen (Netherlands); University of Groningen / University Medical Center Groningen, Department of Radiology, Groningen (Netherlands); Oudkerk, Matthijs [University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Center for Medical Imaging - North East Netherlands, Groningen (Netherlands); Jong, Pim A. de; Mali, Willem P. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Groen, Harry J.M. [University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Department of Pulmonology, Groningen (Netherlands)

    2014-11-04

    To evaluate the impact of radiological expertise on screen result decisions in a CT lung cancer screening trial. In the NELSON lung cancer screening trial, the baseline CT result was based on the largest lung nodule's volume. The protocol allowed radiologists to manually adjust screen results in cases of high suspicion of benign or malignant nodule nature. Participants whose baseline CT result was based on a solid or part-solid nodule were included in this study. Adjustments by radiologists at baseline were evaluated. Histology was the reference for diagnosis or to confirm benignity and stability on subsequent CT examinations. A total of 3,318 participants (2,796 male, median age 58.0 years) were included. In 195 participants (5.9 %) the initial baseline screen result was adjusted by the radiologist. Adjustment was downwards from positive or indeterminate to negative in two and 119 participants, respectively, and from positive to indeterminate in 65 participants. None of these nodules turned out to be malignant. In 9/195 participants (4.6 %) the screen result was adjusted upwards from negative to indeterminate or indeterminate to positive; two nodules were malignant. In one in 20 cases of baseline lung cancer screening, nodules were reclassified by the radiologist, leading to a reduction of false-positive screen results. (orig.)

  17. ["Wise be aware of your sayings"--about gaps between epidemiological data base, experimental results and decision making in health administration].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefer, Elioz

    2005-12-01

    When scientific researches are being published one should consider carefully the different possible influences which may change the results. These influences may be of two kinds: Non-Causal explanations, and Casual explanations. Researchers may arrive at their results and not have considered all the causative explanations. Occams's Razor is the basic rule by which most reasonable explanations are chosen. A statistical result and an appropriate simple theory to explain it, is not sufficient to prove causative effect. In many cases though, the media and public tend to accept a statistically significant result as if it was a proven cause and effect relation. There are several conditional demands called Bradford Hill criteria of which epidemiological data and results are only one, the more results arrived by using the Bradford Hill criteria, the better chances exist that the examined variable is the cause for the effect. Finally, there is a gap between a proven causal factor for disease or the harmful effects of treatment and a "clear cut" health policy. There are several intermediate powerful influences which are involved in the process of stating a new health policy. These influences include among others, the involvement of decision makers, political influences and civil service professionals. As an example three different issues of a well proven clinical research will be presented. The research of Rofecoxib = "Vioxx" cardiac effects, the research of Hormonal Replacement Treatment health effects on post menopausal women and the last of Health risks presented by mobile phone use. Although the results of those researches were proven to be statistically significant, Health Policy in each case is different and less clear. Health Policy is not based solely on figures and statistical results, but rather on a far wider and more complex influences and judgment.

  18. Implicit Leadership Theory: Are Results Generalizable from Student to Professional Samples?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Ming

    1990-01-01

    Explores whether student subjects' implicit leadership theories are generalizable to professional subjects. Samples consisted of 220 undergraduates and 152 government employees in New Zealand. Finds the mean importance ratings were similar for the 2 samples, except students placed greater importance on factors beyond individual control. (DB)

  19. A convergence result for the unscented Kalman-Bucy filter using contraction theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maree, J. P.; Imsland, L.; Jouffroy, J.

    2013-01-01

    -type stochastic differential equations. By employing a virtual/actual system framework, a special relation is established between sigma-point dynamics, and observed process states, with respect to contraction and convergence. The proposed theory is illustrated on an isothermal, non-linear CSTR process. © 2013...

  20. Particle production in field theories coupled to strong external sources, I: Formalism and main results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gelis, Francois; Venugopalan, Raju

    2006-01-01

    We develop a formalism for particle production in a field theory coupled to a strong time-dependent external source. An example of such a theory is the color glass condensate. We derive a formula, in terms of cut vacuum-vacuum Feynman graphs, for the probability of producing a given number of particles. This formula is valid to all orders in the coupling constant. The distribution of multiplicities is non-Poissonian, even in the classical approximation. We investigate an alternative method of calculating the mean multiplicity. At leading order, the average multiplicity can be expressed in terms of retarded solutions of classical equations of motion. We demonstrate that the average multiplicity at next-to-leading order can be formulated as an initial value problem by solving equations of motion for small fluctuation fields with retarded boundary conditions. The variance of the distribution can be calculated in a similar fashion. Our formalism therefore provides a framework to compute from first principles particle production in proton-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions beyond leading order in the coupling constant and to all orders in the source density. We also provide a transparent interpretation (in conventional field theory language) of the well-known Abramovsky-Gribov-Kancheli (AGK) cancellations. Explicit connections are made between the framework for multi-particle production developed here and the framework of reggeon field theory