Neural substrates of approach-avoidance conflict decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Aupperle, Robin L.; Melrose, Andrew J.; Francisco, Alex; Paulus, Martin P.; Stein, Murray B.

2014-01-01

Animal approach-avoidance conflict paradigms have been used extensively to operationalize anxiety, quantify the effects of anxiolytic agents, and probe the neural basis of fear and anxiety. Results from human neuroimaging studies support that a frontal-striatal-amygdala neural circuitry is important for approach-avoidance learning. However, the neural basis of decision-making is much less clear in this context. Thus, we combined a recently developed human approach-avoidance paradigm with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to identify neural substrates underlying approach-avoidance conflict decision-making. Fifteen healthy adults completed the approach-avoidance conflict (AAC) paradigm during fMRI. Analyses of variance were used to compare conflict to non-conflict (avoid-threat and approach-reward) conditions and to compare level of reward points offered during the decision phase. Trial-by-trial amplitude modulation analyses were used to delineate brain areas underlying decision-making in the context of approach/avoidance behavior. Conflict trials as compared to the non-conflict trials elicited greater activation within bilateral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), anterior insula, and caudate, as well as right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Right caudate and lateral PFC activation was modulated by level of reward offered. Individuals who showed greater caudate activation exhibited less approach behavior. On a trial-by-trial basis, greater right lateral PFC activation related to less approach behavior. Taken together, results suggest that the degree of activation within prefrontal-striatal-insula circuitry determines the degree of approach versus avoidance decision-making. Moreover, the degree of caudate and lateral PFC activation is related to individual differences in approach-avoidance decision-making. Therefore, the AAC paradigm is ideally suited to probe anxiety-related processing differences during approach-avoidance decision-making. PMID:25224633

Cognitive processes, models and metaphors in decision research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ben Newell

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Decision research in psychology has traditionally been influenced by the extit{homo oeconomicus} metaphor with its emphasis on normative models and deviations from the predictions of those models. In contrast, the principal metaphor of cognitive psychology conceptualizes humans as `information processors', employing processes of perception, memory, categorization, problem solving and so on. Many of the processes described in cognitive theories are similar to those involved in decision making, and thus increasing cross-fertilization between the two areas is an important endeavour. A wide range of models and metaphors has been proposed to explain and describe `information processing' and many models have been applied to decision making in ingenious ways. This special issue encourages cross-fertilization between cognitive psychology and decision research by providing an overview of current perspectives in one area that continues to highlight the benefits of the synergistic approach: cognitive modeling of multi-attribute decision making. In this introduction we discuss aspects of the cognitive system that need to be considered when modeling multi-attribute decision making (e.g., automatic versus controlled processing, learning and memory constraints, metacognition and illustrate how such aspects are incorporated into the approaches proposed by contributors to the special issue. We end by discussing the challenges posed by the contrasting and sometimes incompatible assumptions of the models and metaphors.

A decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.E.

1997-03-01

A decision model for risk management of hazardous processes as an optimisation problem of a point process is formulated in the study. In the approach, the decisions made by the management are divided into three categories: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) selection of the design and, (3) operational decisions. These three controlling methods play quite different roles in the practical risk management, which is also reflected in our approach. The optimisation of the process lifetime is related to the licensing problem of the process. It provides a boundary condition for a feasible utility function that is used as the actual objective function, i.e., maximizing the process lifetime utility. By design modifications, the management can affect the inherent accident hazard rate of the process. This is usually a discrete optimisation task. The study particularly concentrates upon the optimisation of the operational strategies given a certain design and licensing time. This is done by a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision maker. An optimal long term control variable guiding the selection of operational alternatives in short term problems is studied. The optimisation problem is solved by the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure. The approach is illustrated by a case study. (23 refs.)

Consumer recycling: An ethical decision-making process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Culiberg, Barbara; Bajde, Domen

2013-01-01

Although recycling is often experienced as a moral dilemma, studies that systematically approach this issue from an ethical perspective are scarce. Moreover, previous studies have explored recycling by mainly using single ethical constructs, such as moral norms, values or obligations, rarely...... approaching it as an ethical decision-making process. Our study takes a more holistic approach and integrates the recycling literature with business ethics theory in order to develop a conceptual model of ethical decision making involved in recycling. The model is based on Jones' issue-contingent model...... using structural equation modelling. The results of our study confirmed the relationships between three key facets of ethical decision making: moral recognition, moral judgment and moral intention. Higher levels of moral recognition were found to lead to more positive moral judgments, which in turn...

Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race.

Science.gov (United States)

Warnke, Tom; Reinhardt, Oliver; Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M

2017-10-01

Individuals' decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by networks the individual is part of, such as family ties and other social networks. Central concepts, such as behaviour conditional on agent attributes, age-dependent behaviour, and stochastic waiting times, are tightly integrated in the language. Thereby, alternative decisions are modelled by concurrent processes that compete by stochastic race. Using a migration model, we demonstrate how this allows for compact description of complex decisions, here based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We describe the challenges for the simulation algorithm posed by stochastic race between multiple concurrent complex decisions.

Societal rationality; towards an understanding of decision making processes in society

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wahlstroem, Bjoern

2001-01-01

In a search for new ways to structure decision making on complex and controversial issues it is necessary to build an understanding of why traditional decision making processes break down. One reason is connected to the issues themselves. They represent steps into the unknown and decisions should therefore be made with prudence. A second reason is connected to a track record according to which new technologies are seen as generating more problems than solutions. A third and more fundamental reason is connected to the decision making processes themselves and a need to find better ways to approach difficult questions in the society. One way to approach societal decision making processes is to investigate their hidden rationality in an attempt to understand causes of observed difficulties. The paper is based mainly on observations from the nuclear industry, but it builds also on controversies experienced in attempts to agree on global efforts towards sustainable approaches to development. It builds on an earlier paper, which discussed the basis of rationality both on an individual and a societal level. Research in societal decision making has to rely on a true multi-disciplinary approach. It is nor enough to understand the technical and scientific models by which outcomes are predicted, but it is also necessary to understand how people make sense of their environment and how they co-operate. Rationality is in this connection one of the key concepts, with an understanding that people always are rational in their own frame of action. The challenge in this connection is to understand how this subjective rationality is formed. Societal rationality has to do with the allocation of resources. There are decisions in which several conflicting views have to be considered. Spending time and resources ex ante may support a consensus ex post, but unfortunately there is no panacea for approaching difficult decisions. Decisions with an uncertain future have to be more robust than

Societal rationality; towards an understanding of decision making processes in society

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wahlstroem, Bjoern [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

2001-07-01

In a search for new ways to structure decision making on complex and controversial issues it is necessary to build an understanding of why traditional decision making processes break down. One reason is connected to the issues themselves. They represent steps into the unknown and decisions should therefore be made with prudence. A second reason is connected to a track record according to which new technologies are seen as generating more problems than solutions. A third and more fundamental reason is connected to the decision making processes themselves and a need to find better ways to approach difficult questions in the society. One way to approach societal decision making processes is to investigate their hidden rationality in an attempt to understand causes of observed difficulties. The paper is based mainly on observations from the nuclear industry, but it builds also on controversies experienced in attempts to agree on global efforts towards sustainable approaches to development. It builds on an earlier paper, which discussed the basis of rationality both on an individual and a societal level. Research in societal decision making has to rely on a true multi-disciplinary approach. It is nor enough to understand the technical and scientific models by which outcomes are predicted, but it is also necessary to understand how people make sense of their environment and how they co-operate. Rationality is in this connection one of the key concepts, with an understanding that people always are rational in their own frame of action. The challenge in this connection is to understand how this subjective rationality is formed. Societal rationality has to do with the allocation of resources. There are decisions in which several conflicting views have to be considered. Spending time and resources ex ante may support a consensus ex post, but unfortunately there is no panacea for approaching difficult decisions. Decisions with an uncertain future have to be more robust than

From life cycle analysis approach to monetarisation of the impacts: an evaluation in term of decision process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darras, M.

2002-01-01

The life cycle analysis offers a new tool in the direction of integration of the multiple physical flows of matters around industrial processes and products, including the usage stage. Simultaneously, it stresses the multidimensional impact of the human activities, first in term of physical flows, but then in term of impact on the goals stated above. In this perspective, integrating framework for decision are needed, especially at the more global level. One of the proposed frameworks is the monetarisation and cost-benefit analysis, as an extension of the quantitative economy. The multi-dimensional choice, unfit for strict order choice, is reduce to one variable.In the presentation below, because of the importance of this approach in connection with Life Cycle Analysis and public policies, we concentrate on the;analysis of this framework. We will show that it might shed light on the decision process, especially if associated with its uncertainties, its limits in term of process or criteria taken into account, the indication of other social criteria not taken into account, and other method of evaluation. At the end, this is mainly a source for a better multi-criteria decision process. (author)

Group Decision Process Support

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao

1997-01-01

Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....

The balance space approach to multicriteria decision making—involving the decision maker

OpenAIRE

Ehrgott, M.

2002-01-01

The balance space approach (introduced by Galperin in 1990) provides a new view on multicriteria optimization. Looking at deviations from global optimality of the different objectives, balance points and balance numbers are defined when either different or equal deviations for each objective are allowed. Apportioned balance numbers allow the specification of proportions among the deviations. Through this concept the decision maker can be involved in the decision process. In this paper we prov...

Frame-based safety analysis approach for decision-based errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan, Chin-Feng; Yihb, Swu

1997-01-01

A frame-based approach is proposed to analyze decision-based errors made by automatic controllers or human operators due to erroneous reference frames. An integrated framework, Two Frame Model (TFM), is first proposed to model the dynamic interaction between the physical process and the decision-making process. Two important issues, consistency and competing processes, are raised. Consistency between the physical and logic frames makes a TFM-based system work properly. Loss of consistency refers to the failure mode that the logic frame does not accurately reflect the state of the controlled processes. Once such failure occurs, hazards may arise. Among potential hazards, the competing effect between the controller and the controlled process is the most severe one, which may jeopardize a defense-in-depth design. When the logic and physical frames are inconsistent, conventional safety analysis techniques are inadequate. We propose Frame-based Fault Tree; Analysis (FFTA) and Frame-based Event Tree Analysis (FETA) under TFM to deduce the context for decision errors and to separately generate the evolution of the logical frame as opposed to that of the physical frame. This multi-dimensional analysis approach, different from the conventional correctness-centred approach, provides a panoramic view in scenario generation. Case studies using the proposed techniques are also given to demonstrate their usage and feasibility

Brand deletion: How the decision-making approach affects deletion success

OpenAIRE

Víctor Temprano-García; Ana Isabel Rodríguez-Escudero; Javier Rodríguez-Pinto

2018-01-01

Literature on brand deletion (BD), a critical and topical decision within a firm's marketing strategy, is extremely scarce. The present research is concerned with the decision-making process and examines the effect on BD success of three different approaches to decision-making – rational, intuitive and political – and of the interaction between the rational and political approaches. The moderating effect of the type of BD – i.e., total brand killing or disposal vs. brand name change – is also...

The features of decision making process in international companies. Are companies in control of their own decisions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anastasia JELEVA

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The following article deals with the main causes of irrational decision making process in companies and with respective solutions to make decisions more rational and effective. With the aid of relevant literature, the ways managers, groups and leaders make decisions in reality will be clarified. Besides, the solutions to rational decisions examined through the perspective of managers, leaders and groups. Thus, the background of this article is the question “Are companies in control of their own decisions?” In addition, this paper includes relevant information about the features of decision making process, basic types of decisions, describes the most essential approach in management regarding to decision making and presents the top worst and best business decisions of all time.

Making decision process knowledge explicit using the product data model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Petrusel, R.; Vanderfeesten, I.T.P.; Dolean, Cristina; Mican, D.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we present a new knowledge acquisition and formalization method: the decision mining approach. Basically, we aim to produce a model of the workflow of mental actions performed by decision makers during the decision process. We show that through the use of a Product Data Model (PDM) we

Three approaches to deal with inconsistent decision tables - Comparison of decision tree complexity

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail

2013-01-01

In inconsistent decision tables, there are groups of rows with equal values of conditional attributes and different decisions (values of the decision attribute). We study three approaches to deal with such tables. Instead of a group of equal rows, we consider one row given by values of conditional attributes and we attach to this row: (i) the set of all decisions for rows from the group (many-valued decision approach); (ii) the most common decision for rows from the group (most common decision approach); and (iii) the unique code of the set of all decisions for rows from the group (generalized decision approach). We present experimental results and compare the depth, average depth and number of nodes of decision trees constructed by a greedy algorithm in the framework of each of the three approaches. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

Dual processing model of medical decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical

Dual processing model of medical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

2012-09-03

Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. We show that physician's beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker's threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the

Decision aiding in public policy generation and implementation: a multicriteria approach to evaluate territorial resilience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Franca Norese

2016-12-01

Full Text Available A decision aid process should be the result of an interaction between analysts, decision makers and stakeholders. Decision aiding is sometimes required when the problem situation is new and a formal decision system does not exist. Its role becomes that of facilitating the Intelligence phase of a decision process. In other situations, a criticism of certain policy making processes and their use of data, which may be available in institutional databases or are required as indicators for the decision process, motivates an intervention oriented towards structure knowledge and improvements of these processes. A preliminary study, which includes modelling and application of multi-criteria methods, can clarify a complex and new situation, propose a consistent approach for the later phases of a decision process or propose a different and more effective use of the data. A case study is proposed here to describe this methodological approach in relation to the disaster resilience of municipalities near the mbrone River, in Tuscany (Italy.

Towards a single European electricity market. A structured approach to regulatory mode decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, H.M.

2009-01-01

This study focuses on the processes through which the rules and regulations that govern European electricity markets - and inherently, their integration process - are established. So far, European policy makers have largely followed a 'trial-and-error' approach to finding an appropriate regulatory mode (process) for dealing effectively with market integration issues. This unstructured approach to regulatory mode selection leads to several problems: - Today's trial-and-error strategy of shifting from one regulatory mode to another is time-consuming. - In the regulatory mode selection process, certain key principles of good governance are insufficiently considered. - European regulatory processes are experienced as vague, intransparent, and illegitimate by 'outside' stakeholders. This study develops a 'structured approach to regulatory mode decision-making' (STARMODE) based on the theory of decision modelling in policy management and a case study exploring three key market integration issues in the field of electricity markets: interconnector investment, congestion management and market transparency. The main objective is to present a systematic and comprehensive framework for analysing and improving regulatory mode decision-making in the context of the European Union, focusing on electricity market integration. The STARMODE approach is generally applicable to (and relevant for) European market integration issues in industries characterized by a natural monopoly and/or an essential service. The approach may also contribute to national regulatory mode decision-making and multi-state decision-making in other continents.

Utilisation of Cost Type Information in Decision Making Process Approaches on Public Establishments

OpenAIRE

Mihai (Andreescu) Gabriela; Ionescu (Eftene) Nicoleta; Uta Tatiana

2011-01-01

Managerial decisions and decision making process stand for the key issues of each entity around which all activities of financial information collection, processing, review, construing, summarizing, and not only, gravitate within every organisation. Moreover, costs (calculation, review and optimization of such) are important as the whole activity of an organisation reflects itself in costs, respectively based on information concerning costs based on which managers may decide on purchasing, pr...

Housing decision making methods for initiation development phase process

Science.gov (United States)

Zainal, Rozlin; Kasim, Narimah; Sarpin, Norliana; Wee, Seow Ta; Shamsudin, Zarina

2017-10-01

Late delivery and sick housing project problems were attributed to poor decision making. These problems are the string of housing developer that prefers to create their own approach based on their experiences and expertise with the simplest approach by just applying the obtainable standards and rules in decision making. This paper seeks to identify the decision making methods for housing development at the initiation phase in Malaysia. The research involved Delphi method by using questionnaire survey which involved 50 numbers of developers as samples for the primary stage of collect data. However, only 34 developers contributed to the second stage of the information gathering process. At the last stage, only 12 developers were left for the final data collection process. Finding affirms that Malaysian developers prefer to make their investment decisions based on simple interpolation of historical data and using simple statistical or mathematical techniques in producing the required reports. It was suggested that they seemed to skip several important decision-making functions at the primary development stage. These shortcomings were mainly due to time and financial constraints and the lack of statistical or mathematical expertise among the professional and management groups in the developer organisations.

A decision support system for a multi stakeholder’s decision process in a Portuguese National Forest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Garcia-Gonzalo

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: In this paper, we present a decision support system (DSS to support decision making where different stakeholders have to generate landscape and forest level strategic plans. We further present an interactive approach that may take advantage of a posteriori preference modelling (i.e. Pareto frontier technique to facilitate the specification of the levels of achievement of various objectives.Area of study: The approach was applied to one planning cycle of a real world study case, the Leiria National Forest in Portugal. The Leiria National Forest, a managed area of approximately eleven thousand hectares in which 8,679 hectares are even aged stands of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait aimed at the production of wood.Material and methods: The interactive approach, at first, tries to generate Pareto efficient frontiers for different objectives. Then, multiple decision makers are involved in the process to seek an agreement towards the definition of a consensual strategic plan.Main results: The system developed in this article integrates an information management subsystem, a module to generate alternative management regimes, growth model routines and a decision module that generates and solves mathematical formulations. It also provides a module to display reports and view the resulting solutions (management plans. We also build the Pareto frontier for different criteria. The results show that the proposed DSS can help solve strategic planning problems subject to sustainable management constraints where people organize themselves and participate jointly to manage their natural resources.Research highlights: The interactive approach facilitates the involvement of multiple stakeholders in the decision making process.Keywords: decision support system; participatory planning; linear programming; mixed integer goal programming; sustainable forest management.

Beyond Bioethics: A Child Rights-Based Approach to Complex Medical Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Wade, Katherine; Melamed, Irene; Goldhagen, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

This analysis adopts a child rights approach-based on the principles, standards, and norms of child rights and the U.N. Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC)-to explore how decisions could be made with regard to treatment of a severely impaired infant (Baby G). While a child rights approach does not provide neat answers to ethically complex issues, it does provide a framework for decision-making in which the infant is viewed as an independent rights-holder. The state has obligations to develop the capacity of those who make decisions for infants in such situations to meet their obligations to respect, protect, and fulfill their rights as delineated in the CRC. Furthermore, a child rights approach requires procedural clarity and transparency in decision-making processes. As all rights in the CRC are interdependent and indivisible, all must be considered in the process of ethical decision-making, and the reasons for decisions must be delineated by reference to how these rights were considered. It is also important that decisions that are made in this context be monitored and reviewed to ensure consistency. A rights-based framework ensures decision-making is child-centered and that there are transparent criteria and legitimate procedures for making decisions regarding the child's most basic human right: the right to life, survival, and development.

Theoretical Background for the Decision-Making Process Modelling under Controlled Intervention Conditions

OpenAIRE

Bakanauskienė Irena; Baronienė Laura

2017-01-01

This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been u...

Theoretical Background for the Decision-Making Process Modelling under Controlled Intervention Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bakanauskienė Irena

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been unified conditions, describing the case of controlled interventions thus providing preconditions to ensure the adequacy of the proposed decision-making process model.

Dual processing model of medical decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Djulbegovic Benjamin

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to

Multi-criteria decision making--an approach to setting priorities in health care.

Science.gov (United States)

Nobre, F F; Trotta, L T; Gomes, L F

1999-12-15

The objective of this paper is to present a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach to support public health decision making that takes into consideration the fuzziness of the decision goals and the behavioural aspect of the decision maker. The approach is used to analyse the process of health technology procurement in a University Hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The method, known as TODIM, relies on evaluating alternatives with a set of decision criteria assessed using an ordinal scale. Fuzziness in generating criteria scores and weights or conflicts caused by dealing with different viewpoints of a group of decision makers (DMs) are solved using fuzzy set aggregation rules. The results suggested that MCDM models, incorporating fuzzy set approaches, should form a set of tools for public health decision making analysis, particularly when there are polarized opinions and conflicting objectives from the DM group. Copyright 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Selection Approach for Optimized Problem-Solving Process by Grey Relational Utility Model and Multicriteria Decision Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chih-Kun Ke

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In business enterprises, especially the manufacturing industry, various problem situations may occur during the production process. A situation denotes an evaluation point to determine the status of a production process. A problem may occur if there is a discrepancy between the actual situation and the desired one. Thus, a problem-solving process is often initiated to achieve the desired situation. In the process, how to determine an action need to be taken to resolve the situation becomes an important issue. Therefore, this work uses a selection approach for optimized problem-solving process to assist workers in taking a reasonable action. A grey relational utility model and a multicriteria decision analysis are used to determine the optimal selection order of candidate actions. The selection order is presented to the worker as an adaptive recommended solution. The worker chooses a reasonable problem-solving action based on the selection order. This work uses a high-tech company’s knowledge base log as the analysis data. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed selection approach is effective.

THE APPROACH TO IMMITATION DECISION-MAKING PROCESS IN SYSTEM OF MODELLING OF MILITARY OPERATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. V. Rulko

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The main requirement to imitating modeling of military operations adequacy. Proceeding from it is necessary that the behavior of modeling objects has been as much as possible approached to behavior of real objects in the same conditions of conditions or, at least, did not contradict logic of common sense and requirements of authorized documents. It creates necessity of working out of the mechanism, allowing to formalize administrative experience of commanders of corresponding levels and automatically to deduce decisions, on the basis of parameters of a current situation and preliminary set solving rules.As a rule, in decision-making process, the commander operates with difficult formalizable information at level of complex categories. Contrary to it, the object condition in modeling system is described in the form of a set of values of concrete parameters. For transformation of set of parameters of objects to parameters of higher level the method of the analysis of hierarchies is used.Thus there is the second problem demanding the permission synthesis of the device of decision-making on the basis of the received complex concepts. Use of the mechanism of an indistinct logic conclusion for this purpose is offered. In this case preference of a choice of this or that variant of behavior is set depending on character of crossing of the indistinct sets defined by the expert which functions of an accessory are constructed on axes generated before complex parameters. In quality konsekvents solving rules in advance generated strategy of behavior of modeling objects in this connection in offered algorithm actually there is no stage defuzzyfication act, and for accumulation of the conclusions the formula of algebraic association isused. The offered approach allows to carry out an automatic choice of alternative of behavior during modeling without participation of the operator.

A Relational Approach to the Acquisition Decision-Making Process in the Military Organization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheorghe Minculete

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The market relations of military organizations focus on the acquisition of material goods and/or services. Nonetheless, the importance of the decisions related to the supply process is sometimes minimized. This attitude is so harmful for the effi cacy and effi ciency of the activities conducted by the military structure that at times it can have a negative impact on the management staff too. Problems may occur because the acquisition process must unfold performance-oriented; its main objective is the purchasing of material goods and/or services meant to ensure the smooth operation of the activities of the military organization. In case this cannot be achieved, it is highly probable that the mission of the organization itself is compromised. The present article explores the constitutive elements of the acquisition decision-making situation, certainty, uncertainty and risk connected to the purchasing mechanism, as well as the stages of the acquisition decision-making process

Safety assessment as basis for the decision making process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ilie, P.; Didita, L.; Danchiv, A.

2005-01-01

This paper deals with the safety assessment for a new near surface repository, particularly for the early stage of repository development using ISAM (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Disposal Facilities) safety assessment methodology. In this stage of the repository life cycle the main purpose of the safety assessment is to demonstrate that the plant is capable to be constructed and operated safely. The paper is based on development of the ASAM (Application of the Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near-Surface Disposal Facilities) Decision Support Subgroup of the Common Aspects Working Group. The implications of decision making for the application of the ISAM methodology on post-closure safety assessment are analysed. Some important elements of the decision-making process with impact on key components of the ISAM process are described. Following the development of Decision Support Subgroup of the ASAM Common Aspects Working Group the proposed change of ISAM methodology is analysed. This approach puts all activities in a decision context where the first iteration of the safety assessment is based on the existing state of knowledge and the initial engineering design. Confidence in the process is accomplished through the direct inclusion of all decision makers and stakeholders in the formulation of decisions, the definition of the state of knowledge, and decision making activities. The decision process is developed in context of undertaking assessments with little site-specific information, this situation is specifically for new planned repository. Limited site-specific information can result in a high degree of uncertainty, therefore it is important first of all to identify the sources of uncertainty arising from the limited nature of the site-specific information and then to apply appropriate approaches to manage the uncertainties and to determine whether the uncertainties are important to the overall safety of the disposal facility

Social Context Effects on Decision-Making: A Neurobiological Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Stallen (Mirre)

2013-01-01

textabstractThis thesis explores how social context influences the neurobiological processes underlying decision-making. To this end, this research takes an interdisciplinary approach, combining methods and insights from Psychology, Marketing, Economics, and Neuroscience. In particular, behavioural

Information processing as a paradigm for decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Oppenheimer, Daniel M; Kelso, Evan

2015-01-03

For decades, the dominant paradigm for studying decision making--the expected utility framework--has been burdened by an increasing number of empirical findings that question its validity as a model of human cognition and behavior. However, as Kuhn (1962) argued in his seminal discussion of paradigm shifts, an old paradigm cannot be abandoned until a new paradigm emerges to replace it. In this article, we argue that the recent shift in researcher attention toward basic cognitive processes that give rise to decision phenomena constitutes the beginning of that replacement paradigm. Models grounded in basic perceptual, attentional, memory, and aggregation processes have begun to proliferate. The development of this new approach closely aligns with Kuhn's notion of paradigm shift, suggesting that this is a particularly generative and revolutionary time to be studying decision science.

Health technology funding decision-making processes around the world: the same, yet different.

Science.gov (United States)

Stafinski, Tania; Menon, Devidas; Philippon, Donald J; McCabe, Christopher

2011-06-01

All healthcare systems routinely make resource allocation decisions that trade off potential health gains to different patient populations. However, when such trade-offs relate to the introduction of new, promising health technologies, perceived 'winners' and 'losers' are more apparent. In recent years, public scrutiny over such decisions has intensified, raising the need to better understand how they are currently made and how they might be improved. The objective of this paper is to critically review and compare current processes for making health technology funding decisions at the regional, state/provincial and national level in 20 countries. A comprehensive search for published, peer-reviewed and grey literature describing actual national, state/provincial and regional/institutional technology decision-making processes was conducted. Information was extracted by two independent reviewers and tabulated to facilitate qualitative comparative analyses. To identify strengths and weaknesses of processes identified, websites of corresponding organizations were searched for commissioned reviews/evaluations, which were subsequently analysed using standard qualitative methods. A total of 21 national, four provincial/state and six regional/institutional-level processes were found. Although information on each one varied, they could be grouped into four sequential categories: (i) identification of the decision problem; (ii) information inputs; (iii) elements of the decision-making process; and (iv) public accountability and decision implementation. While information requirements of all processes appeared substantial and decision-making factors comprehensive, the way in which they were utilized was often unclear, as were approaches used to incorporate social values or equity arguments into decisions. A comprehensive inventory of approaches to implementing the four main components of all technology funding decision-making processes was compiled, from which areas for future

The First Flight Decision for New Human Spacecraft Vehicles - A General Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Schaible, Dawn M.; Sumrall, John Phillip

2011-01-01

Determining when it is safe to fly a crew on a launch vehicle/spacecraft for the first time, especially when the test flight is a part of the overall system certification process, has long been a challenge for program decision makers. The decision on first flight is ultimately the judgment of the program and agency management in conjunction with the design and operations team. To aid in this decision process, a NASA team undertook the task to develop a generic framework for evaluating whether any given program or commercial provider has sufficiently complete and balanced plans in place to allow crewmembers to safely fly on human spaceflight systems for the first time. It was the team s goal to establish a generic framework that could easily be applied to any new system, although the system design and intended mission would require specific assessment. Historical data shows that there are multiple approaches that have been successful in first flight with crew. These approaches have always been tailored to the specific system design, mission objectives, and launch environment. Because specific approaches may vary significantly between different system designs and situations, prescriptive instructions or thorough checklists cannot be provided ahead of time. There are, however, certain general approaches that should be applied in thinking through the decision for first flight. This paper addresses some of the most important factors to consider when developing a new system or evaluating an existing system for whether or not it is safe to fly humans to/from space. In the simplest terms, it is time to fly crew for the first time when it is safe to do so and the benefit of the crewed flight is greater than the residual risk. This is rarely a straight-forward decision. The paper describes the need for experience, sound judgment, close involvement of the technical and management teams, and established decision processes. In addition, the underlying level of confidence the

What is on your mind? Using the perceptual cycle model and critical decision method to understand the decision-making process in the cockpit.

Science.gov (United States)

Plant, Katherine L; Stanton, Neville A

2013-01-01

Aeronautical decision-making is complex as there is not always a clear coupling between the decision made and decision outcome. As such, there is a call for process-orientated decision research in order to understand why a decision made sense at the time it was made. Schema theory explains how we interact with the world using stored mental representations and forms an integral part of the perceptual cycle model (PCM); proposed here as a way to understand the decision-making process. This paper qualitatively analyses data from the critical decision method (CDM) based on the principles of the PCM. It is demonstrated that the approach can be used to understand a decision-making process and highlights how influential schemata can be at informing decision-making. The reliability of this approach is established, the general applicability is discussed and directions for future work are considered. This paper introduces the PCM, and the associated schema theory, as a framework to structure and explain data collected from the CDM. The reliability of both the method and coding scheme is addressed.

Decision Support for Software Process Management Teams: An Intelligent Software Agent Approach

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Church, Lori

2000-01-01

... to market, eliminate redundancy, and ease job stress. This thesis proposes a conceptual model for software process management decision support in the form of an intelligent software agent network...

An engineering approach to modelling, decision support and control for sustainable systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Day, W; Audsley, E; Frost, A R

2008-02-12

Engineering research and development contributes to the advance of sustainable agriculture both through innovative methods to manage and control processes, and through quantitative understanding of the operation of practical agricultural systems using decision models. This paper describes how an engineering approach, drawing on mathematical models of systems and processes, contributes new methods that support decision making at all levels from strategy and planning to tactics and real-time control. The ability to describe the system or process by a simple and robust mathematical model is critical, and the outputs range from guidance to policy makers on strategic decisions relating to land use, through intelligent decision support to farmers and on to real-time engineering control of specific processes. Precision in decision making leads to decreased use of inputs, less environmental emissions and enhanced profitability-all essential to sustainable systems.

Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

2012-04-01

Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

Brand deletion: How the decision-making approach affects deletion success

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Víctor Temprano-García

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Literature on brand deletion (BD, a critical and topical decision within a firm's marketing strategy, is extremely scarce. The present research is concerned with the decision-making process and examines the effect on BD success of three different approaches to decision-making – rational, intuitive and political – and of the interaction between the rational and political approaches. The moderating effect of the type of BD – i.e., total brand killing or disposal vs. brand name change – is also analyzed. The model is tested on a sample of 155 cases of BD. Results point to positive effects on BD success of both rationality and intuition, and a negative effect of politics. Findings also indicate that the negative impact of political behavior on BD success is minimized in the absence of evidence and objective information and when the BD is undertaken through a brand name change. JEL classification: L10, M31, Keywords: Brand deletion, Rational decision-making, Intuitive decision-making, Political decision-making, Brand deletion success

Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Warnke, T.; Reinhardt, O.; Klabunde, A.; Willekens, F.J.; Uhrmacher, A.

2017-01-01

Individuals’ decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for

A Dual Process Approach to Understand Tourists’ Destination Choice Processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kock, Florian; Josiassen, Alexander; Assaf, Albert

2017-01-01

Most studies that investigate tourists' choices of destinations apply the concept of mental destination representations, also referred to as destination image. The present study investigates tourists’ destination choice processes by conceptualizing how different components of destination image...... are mentally processed in tourists' minds. Specifically, the seminal dual processing approach is applied to the destination image literature. By doing this, we argue that some components of mental destination representations are processed systematically while others serve as inputs for heuristics...... that individuals apply to inform their decision making. Understanding how individuals make use of their mental destination representations and how they color their decision-making is essential in order to better explain tourist behavior....

The analytic hierarchy process as a support for decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filipović Milanka

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The first part of this text deals with a convention site selection as one of the most lucrative areas in the tourism industry. The second part gives a further description of a method for decision making - the analytic hierarchy process. The basic characteristics: hierarchy constructions and pair wise comparison on the given level of the hierarchy are allured. The third part offers an example of application. This example is solved using the Super - Decision software, which is developed as a computer support for the analytic hierarchy process. This indicates that the AHP approach is a useful tool to help support a decision of convention site selection. .

Modeling bidding decision in engineering field with incomplete information: A static game–based approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhi-xing Huang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Corporate investment decision about engineering projects is a key issue for project management. This article aims to study the process of bidding decision-making in engineering field under the condition of incomplete information and investigating the influence of bidders’ game behaviors on investment decision. With reasonable assumed scenes, this article uses an approach to describe the decision process for bidding. The approach is based on the static game theory. With the proposed model, the effectiveness of game participants and the objective function are put forward, and the characteristics of price quotation and the best strategies of bidders under the equilibrium condition are discussed. The results can give a better understanding of investment decision in engineering management and are helpful for tenderees to avoid excessive competition among bidders.

Disrupted latent decision processes in medication-free pediatric OCD patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Erhan, Ceyla; Bulut, Gresa Çarkaxhiu; Gökçe, Sebla; Ozbas, Duru; Turkakin, Esin; Dursun, Onur Burak; Yazgan, Yanki; Balcı, Fuat

2017-01-01

Decision-making in Obsessive Compulsive Disorder has typically been investigated in the adult population. Computational approaches have recently started to get integrated into these studies. However, decision-making research in pediatric OCD populations is scarce. We investigated latent decision processes in 21 medication-free pediatric OCD patients and 23 healthy control participants. We hypothesized that OCD patients would be more cautious and less efficient in evidence accumulation than controls in a two alternative forced choice (2AFC) task. Pediatric OCD patients were less efficient than controls in accumulating perceptual evidence and showed a tendency to be more cautious. In comparison to post-correct decisions, OCD patients increased decision thresholds after erroneous decisions, whereas healthy controls decreased decision thresholds. These changes were coupled with weaker evidence accumulation after errors in both groups. The small sample size limited the power of the study. Our results demonstrate poorer decision-making performance in pediatric OCD patients at the level of latent processes, specifically in terms of evidence accumulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

32 CFR 865.110 - Decision process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Decision process. 865.110 Section 865.110...-GENERAL PERSONNEL REVIEW BOARDS Air Force Discharge Review Board § 865.110 Decision process. (a) The DRB... decision making process. ...

Motivated information processing and group decision-making : Effects of process accountability on information processing and decision quality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scholten, Lotte; van Knippenberg, Daan; Nijstad, Bernard A.; De Dreu, Carsten K. W.

Integrating dual-process models [Chaiken, S., & Trope, Y. (Eds.). (1999). Dual-process theories in social psychology. NewYork: Guilford Press] with work on information sharing and group decision-making [Stasser, G., & Titus, W. (1985). Pooling of unshared information in group decision making: biased

A Behavioral Decision Making Modeling Approach Towards Hedging Services

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pennings, J.M.E.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Egelkraut, T.M.

2003-01-01

This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by

A transdisciplinary approach to the decision-making process in extreme prematurity.

Science.gov (United States)

Simard, Marc; Gagné, Anne-Marie; Lambert, Raymond D; Tremblay, Yves

2014-07-14

A wide range of dilemmas encountered in the health domain can be addressed more efficiently by a transdisciplinary approach. The complex context of extreme prematurity, which is raising important challenges for caregivers and parents, warrants such an approach. In the present work, experts from various disciplinary fields, namely biomedical, epidemiology, psychology, ethics, and law, were enrolled to participate in a reflection. Gathering a group of experts could be very demanding, both in terms of time and resources, so we created a web-based discussion forum to facilitate the exchanges. The participants were mandated to solve two questions: "Which parameters should be considered before delivering survival care to a premature baby born at the threshold of viability?" and "Would it be acceptable to give different information to parents according to the sex of the baby considering that outcome differences exist between sexes?" The discussion forum was performed over a period of nine months and went through three phases: unidisciplinary, interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, which required extensive discussions and the preparation of several written reports. Those steps were successfully achieved and the participants finally developed a consensual point of view regarding the initial questions. This discussion board also led to a concrete knowledge product, the publication of the popularized results as an electronic book. We propose, with our transdisciplinary analysis, a relevant and innovative complement to existing guidelines regarding the decision-making process for premature infants born at the threshold of viability, with an emphasis on the respective responsabilities of the caregivers and the parents.

Analysis of the decision-making process of nurse managers: a collective reflection.

Science.gov (United States)

Eduardo, Elizabete Araujo; Peres, Aida Maris; de Almeida, Maria de Lourdes; Roglio, Karina de Dea; Bernardino, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

to analyze the decision-making model adopted by nurses from the perspective of some decision-making process theories. qualitative approach, based on action research. Semi-structured questionnaires and seminars were conducted from April to June 2012 in order to understand the nature of decisions and the decision-making process of nine nurses in position of managers at a public hospital in Southern Brazil. Data were subjected to content analysis. data were classified in two categories: the current situation of decision-making, which showed a lack of systematization; the construction and collective decision-making, which emphasizes the need to develop a decision-making model. the decision-making model used by nurses is limited because it does not consider two important factors: the limits of human rationality, and the external and internal organizational environments that influence and determine right decisions.

HOSPITAL SITE SELECTION USING TWO-STAGE FUZZY MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING PROCESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Soltani

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Site selection for sitting of urban activities/facilities is one of the crucial policy-related decisions taken by urban planners and policy makers. The process of site selection is inherently complicated. A careless site imposes exorbitant costs on city budget and damages the environment inevitably. Nowadays, multi-attributes decision making approaches are suggested to use to improve precision of decision making and reduce surplus side effects. Two well-known techniques, analytical hierarchal process and analytical network process are among multi-criteria decision making systems which can easily be consistent with both quantitative and qualitative criteria. These are also developed to be fuzzy analytical hierarchal process and fuzzy analytical network process systems which are capable of accommodating inherent uncertainty and vagueness in multi-criteria decision-making. This paper reports the process and results of a hospital site selection within the Region 5 of Shiraz metropolitan area, Iran using integrated fuzzy analytical network process systems with Geographic Information System (GIS. The weights of the alternatives were calculated using fuzzy analytical network process. Then a sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the elasticity of a decision in regards to different criteria. This study contributes to planning practice by suggesting a more comprehensive decision making tool for site selection.

HOSPITAL SITE SELECTION USING TWO-STAGE FUZZY MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING PROCESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Soltani

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Site selection for sitting of urban activities/facilities is one of the crucial policy-related decisions taken by urban planners and policy makers. The process of site selection is inherently complicated. A careless site imposes exorbitant costs on city budget and damages the environment inevitably. Nowadays, multi-attributes decision making approaches are suggested to use to improve precision of decision making and reduce surplus side effects. Two well-known techniques, analytical hierarchal process and analytical network process are among multi-criteria decision making systems which can easily be consistent with both quantitative and qualitative criteria. These are also developed to be fuzzy analytical hierarchal process and fuzzy analytical network process systems which are capable of accommodating inherent uncertainty and vagueness in multi-criteria decision-making. This paper reports the process and results of a hospital site selection within the Region 5 of Shiraz metropolitan area, Iran using integrated fuzzy analytical network process systems with Geographic Information System (GIS. The weights of the alternatives were calculated using fuzzy analytical network process. Then a sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the elasticity of a decision in regards to different criteria. This study contributes to planning practice by suggesting a more comprehensive decision making tool for site selection.

Intuition and emotion: examining two non-rational approaches in complex decision making

OpenAIRE

Huang, Tori Yu-wen

2012-01-01

This thesis was designed to examine two non-rational decision approaches in individual and team decision making. In Chapter 2 (Paper 1), a normative theory about how people should use intuition in making complex decisions is proposed. I draw from extant literature to derive why allowing intuition to interrupt analysis is beneficial to complex decision processes. In Chapter 3 (Paper 2), the theory of intuitive interruptions is applied to the entrepreneurial context. I argue that allowing intui...

Decision process regarding nuclear generation: the Brazilian case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metri, Paulo

2009-01-01

Countries face a constant need to expand their electricity generation capacities. Electricity sources in a country and the respective generation technologies have different technical, economic, environmental, social and political characteristics. The evaluation criteria of the generating sources and their technologies must not be restricted to the supply of the increased demand at the lowest cost. Compliance with other public policies must be considered in the decision process of the expansion, for instance, maximize local acquisition and minimize foreign fuel purchase. Countries have different energy resources, as well as different levels of technology and development in their industrial parks. Brazil has many mineral reserves, besides the hydraulic potential, for supporting the expansion. The decision process in this sector, which includes nuclear energy as a sub-sector, requires analyzing and evaluating various information and data. In this stage, a quantitative model providing a first approach for the decision may be applied. The new institutional structure adopted in the sector during the 1990s and 2000s brought about new conditions into an already complex decision process. In such context of methodology complexity, political aspects gain relevance, becoming of increased importance. The political environment is described and the players are identified. One conclusion and a few recommendations are provided. (author)

Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

2009-01-01

In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

The decision-making process in public healthcare entities – identification of the decision-making process type

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szymaniec-Mlicka Karolina

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The decisions made in the organization determine its success, therefore, conducting studies in the scope of decision-making seems important both for theory and practice. The aim of the studies was to identify the type of decision-making process in public medical entities with the use of typology developed by P. Nutt. For this purpose we used qualitative methods. Interviews with 8 directors of hospitals were conducted and the reconstruction was made on the basis of the decision-making process, which enabled the assignment of the model of decision-making process to the organization. The research indicated that four organizations use the historical decision-making model, three organizations represent the model of generating solutions, and one organization uses the model of available solutions.

Due Process and Higher Education: A Systemic Approach to Fair Decision Making. ERIC Digest.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, Ed

University officials and faculty are frequently required to make decisions based on interpretations of disputed facts. By applying the concept of due process within the context of higher education, they can meet legal challenges of contract and constitutional law and the pedagogical demand for justice. To guide their efforts, decision makers can…

Information processing in decision-making systems.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Meer, Matthijs; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Redish, A David

2012-08-01

Decisions result from an interaction between multiple functional systems acting in parallel to process information in very different ways, each with strengths and weaknesses. In this review, the authors address three action-selection components of decision-making: The Pavlovian system releases an action from a limited repertoire of potential actions, such as approaching learned stimuli. Like the Pavlovian system, the habit system is computationally fast but, unlike the Pavlovian system permits arbitrary stimulus-action pairings. These associations are a "forward'' mechanism; when a situation is recognized, the action is released. In contrast, the deliberative system is flexible but takes time to process. The deliberative system uses knowledge of the causal structure of the world to search into the future, planning actions to maximize expected rewards. Deliberation depends on the ability to imagine future possibilities, including novel situations, and it allows decisions to be taken without having previously experienced the options. Various anatomical structures have been identified that carry out the information processing of each of these systems: hippocampus constitutes a map of the world that can be used for searching/imagining the future; dorsal striatal neurons represent situation-action associations; and ventral striatum maintains value representations for all three systems. Each system presents vulnerabilities to pathologies that can manifest as psychiatric disorders. Understanding these systems and their relation to neuroanatomy opens up a deeper way to treat the structural problems underlying various disorders.

Modular evaluation method for subsurface activities (MEMSA). A novel approach for integrating social acceptance in a permit decision-making process for subsurface activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Os, Herman W.A. van; Herber, Rien; Scholtens, Bert

2017-01-01

We investigate how the decision support system ‘Modular Evaluation Method Subsurface Activities’ (MEMSA) can help facilitate an informed decision-making process for permit applications of subsurface activities. To this end, we analyze the extent the MEMSA approach allows for a dialogue between stakeholders in a transparent manner. We use the exploration permit for the underground gas storage facility at the Pieterburen salt dome (Netherlands) as a case study. The results suggest that the MEMSA approach is flexible enough to adjust to changing conditions. Furthermore, MEMSA provides a novel way for identifying structural problems and possible solutions in permit decision-making processes for subsurface activities, on the basis of the sensitivity analysis of intermediate rankings. We suggest that the planned size of an activity should already be specified in the exploration phase, because this would allow for a more efficient use of the subsurface as a whole. We conclude that the host community should be involved to a greater extent and in an early phase of the permit decision-making process, for example, already during the initial analysis of the project area of a subsurface activity. We suggest that strategic national policy goals are to be re-evaluated on a regular basis, in the form of a strategic vision for the subsurface, to account for timing discrepancies between the realization of activities and policy deadlines, because this discrepancy can have a large impact on the necessity and therefore acceptance of a subsurface activity.

Modular evaluation method for subsurface activities (MEMSA). A novel approach for integrating social acceptance in a permit decision-making process for subsurface activities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Os, Herman W.A. van, E-mail: h.w.a.van.os@rug.nl [University of Groningen, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Geo-Energy, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen (Netherlands); Herber, Rien, E-mail: rien.herber@rug.nl [University of Groningen, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Geo-Energy, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen (Netherlands); Scholtens, Bert, E-mail: l.j.r.scholtens@rug.nl [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen (Netherlands)

2017-05-15

We investigate how the decision support system ‘Modular Evaluation Method Subsurface Activities’ (MEMSA) can help facilitate an informed decision-making process for permit applications of subsurface activities. To this end, we analyze the extent the MEMSA approach allows for a dialogue between stakeholders in a transparent manner. We use the exploration permit for the underground gas storage facility at the Pieterburen salt dome (Netherlands) as a case study. The results suggest that the MEMSA approach is flexible enough to adjust to changing conditions. Furthermore, MEMSA provides a novel way for identifying structural problems and possible solutions in permit decision-making processes for subsurface activities, on the basis of the sensitivity analysis of intermediate rankings. We suggest that the planned size of an activity should already be specified in the exploration phase, because this would allow for a more efficient use of the subsurface as a whole. We conclude that the host community should be involved to a greater extent and in an early phase of the permit decision-making process, for example, already during the initial analysis of the project area of a subsurface activity. We suggest that strategic national policy goals are to be re-evaluated on a regular basis, in the form of a strategic vision for the subsurface, to account for timing discrepancies between the realization of activities and policy deadlines, because this discrepancy can have a large impact on the necessity and therefore acceptance of a subsurface activity.

Decision-Making and Problem-Solving Approaches in Pharmacy Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Lindsay C; Donohoe, Krista L; Holdford, David A

2016-04-25

Domain 3 of the Center for the Advancement of Pharmacy Education (CAPE) 2013 Educational Outcomes recommends that pharmacy school curricula prepare students to be better problem solvers, but are silent on the type of problems they should be prepared to solve. We identified five basic approaches to problem solving in the curriculum at a pharmacy school: clinical, ethical, managerial, economic, and legal. These approaches were compared to determine a generic process that could be applied to all pharmacy decisions. Although there were similarities in the approaches, generic problem solving processes may not work for all problems. Successful problem solving requires identification of the problems faced and application of the right approach to the situation. We also advocate that the CAPE Outcomes make explicit the importance of different approaches to problem solving. Future pharmacists will need multiple approaches to problem solving to adapt to the complexity of health care.

Dynamic Request Routing for Online Video-on-Demand Service: A Markov Decision Process Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianxiong Wan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate the request routing problem in the CDN-based Video-on-Demand system. We model the system as a controlled queueing system including a dispatcher and several edge servers. The system is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP. Since the MDP formulation suffers from the so-called “the curse of dimensionality” problem, we then develop a greedy heuristic algorithm, which is simple and can be implemented online, to approximately solve the MDP model. However, we do not know how far it deviates from the optimal solution. To address this problem, we further aggregate the state space of the original MDP model and use the bounded-parameter MDP (BMDP to reformulate the system. This allows us to obtain a suboptimal solution with a known performance bound. The effectiveness of two approaches is evaluated in a simulation study.

Some applications of fuzzy sets and the analytical hierarchy process to decision making

OpenAIRE

Castro, Alberto Rosas

1984-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited This thesis examines the use of fuzzy set theory and the analytic hierarchy process in decision making. It begins by reviewing the insight of psychologists, social scientists and computer scientists to the decision making process. The Operations Research- Systems Analysis approach is discussed followed by a presentation of the basis of fuzzy set theory and the analytic hierarchy process. Two applications of these meth...

Implementing a Decision-Aware System for Loan Contracting Decision Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Razvan PETRUSEL

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The paper introduces our work related to the design and implementation of a decision-aware system focused on the loan contracting decision process. A decision-aware system is a software that enables the user to make a decision in a simulated environment and logs all the actions of the decision maker while interacting with the software. By using a mining algorithm on the logs, it creates a model of the decision process and presents it to the user. The main design issue introduced in the paper is the possibility to log the mental actions of the user. The main implementation issues are: user activity logging programming and technologies used. The first section of the paper introduces the state-of-the-art research in process mining and the framework of our research; the second section argues the design of the system; the third section introduces the actual implementation and the fourth section shows a running example.

Approaches to Aggregation and Decision Making-A Health Economics Approach: An ISPOR Special Task Force Report [5].

Science.gov (United States)

Phelps, Charles E; Lakdawalla, Darius N; Basu, Anirban; Drummond, Michael F; Towse, Adrian; Danzon, Patricia M

2018-02-01

The fifth section of our Special Task Force report identifies and discusses two aggregation issues: 1) aggregation of cost and benefit information across individuals to a population level for benefit plan decision making and 2) combining multiple elements of value into a single value metric for individuals. First, we argue that additional elements could be included in measures of value, but such elements have not generally been included in measures of quality-adjusted life-years. For example, we describe a recently developed extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) that provides a good example of how to use a broader concept of utility. ECEA adds two features-measures of financial risk protection and income distributional consequences. We then discuss a further option for expanding this approach-augmented CEA, which can introduce many value measures. Neither of these approaches, however, provide a comprehensive measure of value. To resolve this issue, we review a technique called multicriteria decision analysis that can provide a comprehensive measure of value. We then discuss budget-setting and prioritization using multicriteria decision analysis, issues not yet fully resolved. Next, we discuss deliberative processes, which represent another important approach for population- or plan-level decisions used by many health technology assessment bodies. These use quantitative information on CEA and other elements, but the group decisions are reached by a deliberative voting process. Finally, we briefly discuss the use of stated preference methods for developing "hedonic" value frameworks, and conclude with some recommendations in this area. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the structure of non-routine decision processes in Airline Operations Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Richters, Floor; Schraagen, Jan Maarten; Heerkens, Hans

2016-03-01

Unfamiliar severe disruptions challenge Airline Operations Control professionals most, as their expertise is stretched to its limits. This study has elicited the structure of Airline Operations Control professionals' decision process during unfamiliar disruptions by mapping three macrocognitive activities on the decision ladder: sensemaking, option evaluation and action planning. The relationship between this structure and decision quality was measured. A simulated task was staged, based on which think-aloud protocols were obtained. Results show that the general decision process structure resembles the structure of experts working under routine conditions, in terms of the general structure of the macrocognitive activities, and the rule-based approach used to identify options and actions. Surprisingly, high quality of decision outcomes was found to relate to the use of rule-based strategies. This implies that successful professionals are capable of dealing with unfamiliar problems by reframing them into familiar ones, rather than to engage in knowledge-based processing. Practitioner Summary: We examined the macrocognitive structure of Airline Operations Control professionals' decision process during a simulated unfamiliar disruption in relation to decision quality. Results suggest that successful professionals are capable of dealing with unfamiliar problems by reframing them into familiar ones, rather than to engage in knowledge-based processing.

Behavioural Decision Making and Suggestional Processes

OpenAIRE

Molz, Günter

2001-01-01

Common features between the domains of behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are discussed. These features are allocated in two aspects. First, behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are traditionally considered to provoke inadequate human behaviour. In this article arguments are put forward against this interpretation: Actions induced by non-rational decisions and / or by suggestional processes often have adaptive functions. Second, two common themat...

An object-oriented approach to site characterization decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, R.

1995-01-01

Effective decision support for site characterization is key to determining the nature and extent of contamination and the associated human and environmental risks. Site characterization data, however, present particular problems to technical analysts and decision-makers. Such data are four dimensional, incorporating temporal and spatial components. Their sheer volume can be daunting -- sites with hundreds of monitoring wells and thousands of samples sent for laboratory analyses are not uncommon. Data are derived from a variety of sources including laboratory analyses, non-intrusive geophysical surveys, historical information, bore logs, in-field estimates of key physical parameters such as aquifer transmissivity, soil moisture content, depth-to-water table, etc. Ultimately, decisions have to be made based on data that are always incomplete, often confusing, inaccurate, or inappropriate, and occasionally wrong. In response to this challenge, two approaches to environmental decision support have arisen, Data Quality Objectives (DQOS) and the Observational Approach (OA). DQOs establish criteria for data collection by clearly defining the decisions that need to be made, the uncertainty that can be tolerated, and the type and amount of data that needs to be collected to satisfy the uncertainty requirements. In practice, DQOs are typically based on statistical measures. The OA accepts the fact that the process of characterizing and remediating contaminated sites is always uncertain. Decision-making with the OA is based on what is known about a site, with contingencies developed for potential future deviations from the original assumptions about contamination nature, extent, and risks posed

Organizational decision making

OpenAIRE

Grandori, Anna

2015-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...

A multi-criteria decision approach to sorting actions for promoting energy efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pires Neves, Luis; Gomes Martins, Antonio; Henggeler Antunes, Carlos; Candido Dias, Luis

2008-01-01

This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision approach for sorting energy-efficiency initiatives, promoted by electric utilities, with or without public funds authorized by a regulator, or promoted by an independent energy agency, overcoming the limitations and drawbacks of cost-benefit analysis. The proposed approach is based on the ELECTRE-TRI multi-criteria method and allows the consideration of different kinds of impacts, although avoiding difficult measurements and unit conversions. The decision is based on all the significant effects of the initiative, both positive and negative, including ancillary effects often forgotten in cost-benefit analysis. The ELECTRE-TRI, as most multi-criteria methods, provides to the decision maker the ability of controlling the relevance each impact can have on the final decision in a transparent way. The decision support process encompasses a robustness analysis, which, together with a good documentation of the parameters supplied into the model, should support sound decisions. The models were tested with a set of real-world initiatives and compared with possible decisions based on cost-benefit analysis

Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Peter J; Dorozenko, Kate P; Roberts, Lynne D

2016-01-01

Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these "experts" were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid

Decision-Oriented Health Technology Assessment: One Step Forward in Supporting the Decision-Making Process in Hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritrovato, Matteo; Faggiano, Francesco C; Tedesco, Giorgia; Derrico, Pietro

2015-06-01

This article outlines the Decision-Oriented Health Technology Assessment: a new implementation of the European network for Health Technology Assessment Core Model, integrating the multicriteria decision-making analysis by using the analytic hierarchy process to introduce a standardized methodological approach as a valued and shared tool to support health care decision making within a hospital. Following the Core Model as guidance (European network for Health Technology Assessment. HTA core model for medical and surgical interventions. Available from: http://www.eunethta.eu/outputs/hta-core-model-medical-and-surgical-interventions-10r. [Accessed May 27, 2014]), it is possible to apply the analytic hierarchy process to break down a problem into its constituent parts and identify priorities (i.e., assigning a weight to each part) in a hierarchical structure. Thus, it quantitatively compares the importance of multiple criteria in assessing health technologies and how the alternative technologies perform in satisfying these criteria. The verbal ratings are translated into a quantitative form by using the Saaty scale (Saaty TL. Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. Int J Serv Sci 2008;1:83-98). An eigenvectors analysis is used for deriving the weights' systems (i.e., local and global weights' system) that reflect the importance assigned to the criteria and the priorities related to the performance of the alternative technologies. Compared with the Core Model, this methodological approach supplies a more timely as well as contextualized evidence for a specific technology, making it possible to obtain data that are more relevant and easier to interpret, and therefore more useful for decision makers to make investment choices with greater awareness. We reached the conclusion that although there may be scope for improvement, this implementation is a step forward toward the goal of building a "solid bridge" between the scientific evidence and the final decision

Markov decision processes: a tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J; Roberts, Mark S

2010-01-01

We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.

An application of the rational choice approach to the offending process of sex offenders: a closer look at the decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Beauregard, Eric; Leclerc, Benoît

2007-06-01

Although the study of both offense processes and implicit theories provides in-depth knowledge about the decision-making of sex offenders, these studies focus solely on the internal psychological processes of the offender leading to the commission of a sexual assault. These studies neglect to look specifically at the offender's decision-making during the offense in interaction with the immediate situations encountered at the offense scene, such as the choices of behavior while interacting with the victim in a specific context. Based on a rational choice approach, this study investigates the decision-making involved in the offending process of 69 serial sexual offenders who have committed their crimes against stranger victims. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with offenders in order to identify the rationale behind their actions during the pre-crime phase (premeditation of the crime, estimation of risk of apprehension by the offender, and forensic awareness of the offender), crime phase (use of a weapon, use of restraints, use of a vehicle, and level of force used), and the post-crime phase (event leading to the end of crime and victim release site location choice). Results show that sex offenders, even if traditionally described as "irrational" and impulsive individuals, are capable, up to a certain point, of an analysis of the costs/benefits related to their actions. Moreover, results emphasize the important role of situational factors, such as victim resistance, on the decision-making process of sex offenders. Implications of the results are briefly discussed in regard of clinical practice and crime prevention.

The Use of the Evidence from the Behavioral Sciences in the Organizational Decision-Making Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan MÎNJINĂ

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The important managerial decision-making and the development of policies, strategies, internal normative acts and procedures must be solid grounded for efficient achieving of their objectives. To this end, the evidence-based approach uses various types of evidence, a leading role having those scientific, and the critical thinking. The evidence from behavioral sciences is especially important when the decisions objectives involve behavioral elements. They also help to ensure the rationality of any decision-making process. The concern for the use of behavioral sciences research in the decision-making preceded the occurrence of evidence-based approach. The increased knowledge fund of organizations, the access to the best practices and to the relevant scientific research findings represent only the initial stages of the evidence-based approach implementation and functioning. The ensuring of their effective use calls for special skills training among staff, the creation of tools and organizational mechanisms and of a facilitating organizational culture. This paper argues the need to integrate two approaches that promote the decision-making based on scientific evidence, the evidence-based approach and the use of behavioral and social sciences in the decision-making, to potentiate the contribution of the behavioral sciences to the increasing of the decision-making efficiency. The efforts made in this paper had overall objective to prepare and facilitate the use of research evidence provided by behavioral sciences in the organizational decision-making process by presenting the main concepts and knowledge in the field and by proposing an outline procedure specifically developed.

Decision process for Hanford sitewide groundwater remediation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1996-06-01

This document describes a decision process for planning future investigations and remediating contaminated groundwater at the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington. This decision process details the following: identifies key decisions and activities; defines the criteria used in making each decision; and defines the logic that links the decisions and the activities in a stepwise manner

Simulation Models of Human Decision-Making Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nina RIZUN

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is presentation of the new concept of human decision-making process modeling via using the analogy with Automatic Control Theory. From the author's point of view this concept allows to develop and improve the theory of decision-making in terms of the study and classification of specificity of the human intellectual processes in different conditions. It was proved that the main distinguishing feature between the Heuristic / Intuitive and Rational Decision-Making Models is the presence of so-called phenomenon of "enrichment" of the input information with human propensity, hobbies, tendencies, expectations, axioms and judgments, presumptions or bias and their justification. In order to obtain additional knowledge about the basic intellectual processes as well as the possibility of modeling the decision results in various parameters characterizing the decision-maker, the complex of the simulation models was developed. These models are based on the assumptions that:  basic intellectual processes of the Rational Decision-Making Model can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the proportional-integral-derivative controller; basic intellectual processes of the Bounded Rationality and Intuitive Models can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the nonlinear elements.The taxonomy of the most typical automatic control theory elements and their compliance with certain decision-making models with a point of view of decision-making process specificity and decision-maker behavior during a certain time of professional activity was obtained.

A Cross-Layer User Centric Vertical Handover Decision Approach Based on MIH Local Triggers

Science.gov (United States)

Rehan, Maaz; Yousaf, Muhammad; Qayyum, Amir; Malik, Shahzad

Vertical handover decision algorithm that is based on user preferences and coupled with Media Independent Handover (MIH) local triggers have not been explored much in the literature. We have developed a comprehensive cross-layer solution, called Vertical Handover Decision (VHOD) approach, which consists of three parts viz. mechanism for collecting and storing user preferences, Vertical Handover Decision (VHOD) algorithm and the MIH Function (MIHF). MIHF triggers the VHOD algorithm which operates on user preferences to issue handover commands to mobility management protocol. VHOD algorithm is an MIH User and therefore needs to subscribe events and configure thresholds for receiving triggers from MIHF. In this regard, we have performed experiments in WLAN to suggest thresholds for Link Going Down trigger. We have also critically evaluated the handover decision process, proposed Just-in-time interface activation technique, compared our proposed approach with prominent user centric approaches and analyzed our approach from different aspects.

Consumer Decision Process in Restaurant Selection: An Application of the Stylized EKB Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eugenia Wickens

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The aim of this paper is to propose a framework based on empirical work for understanding the consumer decision processes involved in the selection of a restaurant for leisure meals. Design/Methodology/Approach – An interpretive approach is taken in order to understand the intricacies of the process and the various stages in the process. Six focus group interviews with consumers of various ages and occupations in the South East of the United Kingdom were conducted. Findings and implications – The stylized EKB model of the consumer decision process (Tuan-Pham & Higgins, 2005 was used as a framework for developing different stages of the process. Two distinct parts of the process were identified. Occasion was found to be critical to the stage of problem recognition. In terms of evaluation of alternatives and, in particular, sensitivity to evaluative content, the research indicates that the regulatory focus theory of Tuan-Pham and Higgins (2005 applies to the decision of selecting a restaurant. Limitations – It is acknowledged that this exploratory study is based on a small sample in a single geographical area. Originality – The paper is the first application of the stylized EKB model, which takes into account the motivational dimensions of consumer decision making, missing in other models. It concludes that it may have broader applications to other research contexts.

Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Gati, Itamar

1986-01-01

Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

SOFTWARE PROCESS ASSESSMENT AND IMPROVEMENT USING MULTICRITERIA DECISION AIDING - CONSTRUCTIVIST

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Leonardo Ensslin

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Software process improvement and software process assessment have received special attention since the 1980s. Some models have been created, but these models rest on a normative approach, where the decision-maker’s participation in a software organization is limited to understanding which process is more relevant to each organization. The proposal of this work is to present the MCDA-C as a constructivist methodology for software process improvement and assessment. The methodology makes it possible to visualize the criteria that must be taken into account according to the decision-makers’ values in the process improvement actions, making it possible to rank actions in the light of specific organizational needs. This process helped the manager of the company studied to focus on and prioritize process improvement actions. This paper offers an empirical understanding of the application of performance evaluation to software process improvement and identifies complementary tools to the normative models presented today.

Toward theoretical understanding of the fertility preservation decision-making process: examining information processing among young women with cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Hershberger, Patricia E; Finnegan, Lorna; Altfeld, Susan; Lake, Sara; Hirshfeld-Cytron, Jennifer

2013-01-01

Young women with cancer now face the complex decision about whether to undergo fertility preservation. Yet little is known about how these women process information involved in making this decision. The purpose of this article is to expand theoretical understanding of the decision-making process by examining aspects of information processing among young women diagnosed with cancer. Using a grounded theory approach, 27 women with cancer participated in individual, semistructured interviews. Data were coded and analyzed using constant-comparison techniques that were guided by 5 dimensions within the Contemplate phase of the decision-making process framework. In the first dimension, young women acquired information primarily from clinicians and Internet sources. Experiential information, often obtained from peers, occurred in the second dimension. Preferences and values were constructed in the third dimension as women acquired factual, moral, and ethical information. Women desired tailored, personalized information that was specific to their situation in the fourth dimension; however, women struggled with communicating these needs to clinicians. In the fifth dimension, women offered detailed descriptions of clinician behaviors that enhance or impede decisional debriefing. Better understanding of theoretical underpinnings surrounding women's information processes can facilitate decision support and improve clinical care.

Pythagorean fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to multi-criteria decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Mohd, Wan Rosanisah Wan; Abdullah, Lazim

2017-11-01

A numerous approaches have been proposed in the literature to determine the criteria of weight. The weight of criteria is very significant in the process of decision making. One of the outstanding approaches that used to determine weight of criteria is analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This method involves decision makers (DMs) to evaluate the decision to form the pair-wise comparison between criteria and alternatives. In classical AHP, the linguistic variable of pairwise comparison is presented in terms of crisp value. However, this method is not appropriate to present the real situation of the problems because it involved the uncertainty in linguistic judgment. For this reason, AHP has been extended by incorporating the Pythagorean fuzzy sets. In addition, no one has found in the literature proposed how to determine the weight of criteria using AHP under Pythagorean fuzzy sets. In order to solve the MCDM problem, the Pythagorean fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is proposed to determine the criteria weight of the evaluation criteria. Using the linguistic variables, pairwise comparison for evaluation criteria are made to the weights of criteria using Pythagorean fuzzy numbers (PFNs). The proposed method is implemented in the evaluation problem in order to demonstrate its applicability. This study shows that the proposed method provides us with a useful way and a new direction in solving MCDM problems with Pythagorean fuzzy context.

44 CFR 9.6 - Decision-making process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Decision-making process. 9.6... HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.6 Decision-making process... protection decision-making process to be followed by the Agency in applying the Orders to its actions. While...

A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M.; Yerace, P.; Krstich, M.; Gerrick, D.

1998-05-01

This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

Deciziile amenajistice ca procese ierarhizate [Managerial decisions as hierarchical analytic processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Drăgoi M

2002-07-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with a step-wise HAP, applied by a group of decision makers, wherein nobody has a dominant position and it is unlikely to come to terms with respect to either the weights of different objectives or expected utilities of different alternatives. One of HAP outcome, namely the consistency index, is computed for each decision maker, for all other decision makers but that one, and for the whole group. Doing so, the group is able to assess to which extent each decision maker alters the group consistency index and a better consistency index could be achieved if the assessment procedure is being resumed by the most influential decision maker in terms of consistency. A case study is used to demonstrate how the step-wise process succeeds in improving the group's consistency index and how the weights of criteria are being changed during the negotiation process. The main contribution of the new approach is the algorithm presented in the figure of the paper where the condition to stop the process might be either a threshold value for the consistency index, or a given number of iterations per group or per person.

Cognitive processes in anesthesiology decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery

2014-01-01

The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.

Consensual decision-making model based on game theory for LNG processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castillo, Luis; Dorao, Carlos A.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► A Decision Making (DM) approach for LNG projects based on game theory is presented. ► DM framework was tested with two different cases, using analytical models and a simple LNG process. ► The problems were solved by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) binary coding and Nash-GA. ► Integrated models from the design and optimization of the process could result in more realistic outcome. ► The major challenge in such a framework is related to the uncertainties in the market models. - Abstract: Decision-Making (DM) in LNG projects is a quite complex process due to the number of actors, approval phases, large investments and capital return in the long time. Furthermore, due to the very high investment of a LNG project, a detailed and efficient DM process is required in order to minimize risks. In this work a Decision-Making (DM) approach for LNG projects is presented. The approach is based on a consensus algorithm to address the consensus output over a common value using cost functions within a framework based on game theory. The DM framework was tested with two different cases. The first case was used for evaluating the performance of the framework with analytical models, while the second case corresponds to a simple LNG process. The problems were solved by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) binary coding and Nash-GA. The results of the DM framework in the LNG project indicate that considering an integrated DM model and including the markets role from the design and optimization of the process more realistic outcome could be obtained. However, the major challenge in such a framework is related to the uncertainties in the market models.

Near-Earth object hazardous impact: A Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Lozano, J M; Fernández-Martínez, M

2016-11-16

The impact of a near-Earth object (NEO) may release large amounts of energy and cause serious damage. Several NEO hazard studies conducted over the past few years provide forecasts, impact probabilities and assessment ratings, such as the Torino and Palermo scales. These high-risk NEO assessments involve several criteria, including impact energy, mass, and absolute magnitude. The main objective of this paper is to provide the first Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach to classify hazardous NEOs. Our approach applies a combination of two methods from a widely utilized decision making theory. Specifically, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology is employed to determine the criteria weights, which influence the decision making, and the Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is used to obtain a ranking of alternatives (potentially hazardous NEOs). In addition, NEO datasets provided by the NASA Near-Earth Object Program are utilized. This approach allows the classification of NEOs by descending order of their TOPSIS ratio, a single quantity that contains all of the relevant information for each object.

Nonrational processes in ethical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogerson, Mark D; Gottlieb, Michael C; Handelsman, Mitchell M; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

2011-10-01

Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasilegal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior, including context, perceptions, relationships, emotions, and heuristics. For example, a large body of behavioral research has demonstrated the importance of automatic intuitive and affective processes in decision making and judgment. These processes profoundly affect human behavior and lead to systematic biases and departures from normative theories of rationality. Their influence represents an important but largely unrecognized component of ethical decision making. We selectively review this work; provide various illustrations; and make recommendations for scientists, trainers, and practitioners to aid them in integrating the understanding of nonrational processes with ethical decision making.

Difficult decisions: A qualitative exploration of the statistical decision making process from the perspectives of psychology students and academics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter James Allen

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these ‘experts’ were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in

Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Peter J.; Dorozenko, Kate P.; Roberts, Lynne D.

2016-01-01

Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these “experts” were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid

The Use of Art in the Medical Decision-Making Process of Oncology Patients

Science.gov (United States)

Czamanski-Cohen, Johanna

2012-01-01

The introduction of written informed consent in the 1970s created expectations of shared decision making between doctors and patients that has led to decisional conflict for some patients. This study utilized a collaborative, intrinsic case study approach to the decision-making process of oncology patients who participated in an open art therapy…

THE INFLUENCE OF TOP MANAGEMENT DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS ON DECISION MAKING APPROACHES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Bulog

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Today’s organizational environment requires managers to be an excellent decision maker with the ability to make effective decisions which will shape business performance. Because of the role that managers have in today’s business settings, research interest in the relationship between individual characteristics and managerial decision making in all its aspects has increased over the last decade. This paper aims to provide an overview and discussion of how individuals make choices and decisions by examining the influence of top management demographic characteristics on decision making approaches. Findings suggest that demographic characteristics appear to be valuable for predicting which decision making approach managers prefer. The results of the study show that the average age and education level of decision makers is positively related to the rational decision making approach and negatively to the intuitive decision making approach. Tenure is positively related to the intuitive decision making approach, but the influence is not statistically significant. Also, a difference in the decision making approach was found with respect to gender. In light of the research findings, implications and limitations were discussed and some possibilities for future research are suggested.

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Comparing Approaches for the Integration of Stakeholder Perspectives in Environmental Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Scolobig

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Including stakeholder perspectives in environmental decision making is in many countries a legal requirement and is widely seen as beneficial as it can help increase decision legitimacy, likelihood of implementation, and quality of the outcome. Whereas the theoretical literature on stakeholder engagement is large, less attention has been devoted to comparing and discussing different methodological approaches. Here, we compare three approaches—multi-criteria analysis, plural rationality theory, and scenario construction—that include stakeholders’ perspectives in environmental decision making. We find differences between the approaches concerning the assumptions about stakeholder rationality and whether experts and/or stakeholders are in charge of framing the problem. Further differences concern the type of data input from stakeholders and how it is used by the experts, as well as the role of stakeholders and whether they are involved early—already for identifying options—or later in the process, for evaluating or ranking alternatives analyzed by the experts. The choice of approach thus predetermines the type and depth of stakeholder engagement. No approach is “better” than another, but they are suited for different problems and research aims: the choice of the approach, however, has a large impact on the results.

MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MAKING APPROACH FOR INDUSTRIAL ENGINEER SELECTION USING FUZZY AHP-FUZZY TOPSIS

OpenAIRE

Deliktaş, Derya; ÜSTÜN, Özden

2018-01-01

In this study, a fuzzy multiple criteria decision-making approach is proposed to select an industrial engineer among ten candidates in a manufacturing environment. The industrial engineer selection problem is a special case of the personal selection problem. This problem, which has hierarchical structure of criteria and many decision makers, contains many criteria. The evaluation process of decision makers also includes ambiguous parameters. The fuzzy AHP is used to determin...

Toward theoretical understanding of the fertility preservation decision-making process: Examining information processing among young women with cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Hershberger, Patricia E.; Finnegan, Lorna; Altfeld, Susan; Lake, Sara; Hirshfeld-Cytron, Jennifer

2014-01-01

Background Young women with cancer now face the complex decision about whether to undergo fertility preservation. Yet little is known about how these women process information involved in making this decision. Objective The purpose of this paper is to expand theoretical understanding of the decision-making process by examining aspects of information processing among young women diagnosed with cancer. Methods Using a grounded theory approach, 27 women with cancer participated in individual, semi-structured interviews. Data were coded and analyzed using constant-comparison techniques that were guided by five dimensions within the Contemplate phase of the decision-making process framework. Results In the first dimension, young women acquired information primarily from clinicians and Internet sources. Experiential information, often obtained from peers, occurred in the second dimension. Preferences and values were constructed in the third dimension as women acquired factual, moral, and ethical information. Women desired tailored, personalized information that was specific to their situation in the fourth dimension; however, women struggled with communicating these needs to clinicians. In the fifth dimension, women offered detailed descriptions of clinician behaviors that enhance or impede decisional debriefing. Conclusion Better understanding of theoretical underpinnings surrounding women’s information processes can facilitate decision support and improve clinical care. PMID:24552086

Serotonin and decision making processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Homberg, Judith R

2012-01-01

Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The role of epidemiology in the process of decision-making].

Science.gov (United States)

Prost, A

1997-01-01

Epidemiology is the method of choice for quantifying and interpreting health phenomena, placing them into perspective to allow trend analysis and projections. It is a tool for analysis, evaluation and forecasting and is thus indispensable in the decision-making process. However, this comprehensive technique has its limitations since health is the result of complex interactions: individual requirements do not always correspond to the overall needs of the community; consideration has to be given to solidarity and the necessity for cost-sharing; and the decision process is strongly influenced by social, cultural, religious and political factors which defy quantification and, on occasion, any rational course of action. Each indicator only takes into account one aspect of the situation and the pertinent indicator should therefore be carefully selected. At the same time, any choice implicitly signifies value judgements-often unnoticed-which need to be balanced and validated in relation to the ethical values of the community in order to be of any assistance to decision-making. Decision-making is a qualitative political process which, although based on the quantitative analysis supplied by epidemiology, cannot be limited to it. Each approach enhance the other, but they should not be confused if freedom to act is to be preserved from being locked into some kind of mechanical process that is unacceptable both to man and to society.

Decision support systems in water and wastewater treatment process selection and design: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamouda, M A; Anderson, W B; Huck, P M

2009-01-01

The continuously changing drivers of the water treatment industry, embodied by rigorous environmental and health regulations and the challenge of emerging contaminants, necessitates the development of decision support systems for the selection of appropriate treatment trains. This paper explores a systematic approach to developing decision support systems, which includes the analysis of the treatment problem(s), knowledge acquisition and representation, and the identification and evaluation of criteria controlling the selection of optimal treatment systems. The objective of this article is to review approaches and methods used in decision support systems developed to aid in the selection, sequencing of unit processes and design of drinking water, domestic wastewater, and industrial wastewater treatment systems. Not surprisingly, technical considerations were found to dominate the logic of the developed systems. Most of the existing decision-support tools employ heuristic knowledge. It has been determined that there is a need to develop integrated decision support systems that are generic, usable and consider a system analysis approach.

The decision tree approach to classification

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, C.; Landgrebe, D. A.; Swain, P. H.

1975-01-01

A class of multistage decision tree classifiers is proposed and studied relative to the classification of multispectral remotely sensed data. The decision tree classifiers are shown to have the potential for improving both the classification accuracy and the computation efficiency. Dimensionality in pattern recognition is discussed and two theorems on the lower bound of logic computation for multiclass classification are derived. The automatic or optimization approach is emphasized. Experimental results on real data are reported, which clearly demonstrate the usefulness of decision tree classifiers.

Data mining approach to bipolar cognitive map development and decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wen-Ran

2002-03-01

A data mining approach to cognitive mapping is presented based on bipolar logic, bipolar relations, and bipolar clustering. It is shown that a correlation network derived from a database can be converted to a bipolar cognitive map (or bipolar relation). A transitive, symmetric, and reflexive bipolar relation (equilibrium relation) can be used to identify focal links in decision analysis. It can also be used to cluster a set of events or itemsets into three different clusters: coalition sets, conflict sets, and harmony sets. The coalition sets are positively correlated events or itemsets; each conflict set is a negatively correlated set of two coalition subsets; and a harmony set consists of events that are both negatively and positively correlated. A cognitive map and the clusters can then be used for online decision analysis. This approach combines knowledge discovery with the views of decision makers and provides an effective means for online analytical processing (OLAP) and online analytical mining (OLAM).

When Family Considerations Influence Work Decisions: Decision-Making Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Gary N.; Greenhaus, Jeffrey H.

2012-01-01

The work-family literature has provided an abundance of evidence that various family factors are linked to various work decisions, suggesting that the "family-relatedness" of work decisions is a prevalent phenomenon (Greenhaus & Powell, 2012). However, the cognitive processes by which such linkages occur have received little attention. We offer a…

Aiding Lay Decision Making Using a Cognitive Competencies Approach

OpenAIRE

Maule, A. J.; Maule, Simon

2016-01-01

Two prescriptive approaches have evolved to aid human decision making: just in time interventions that provide support as a decision is being made; and just in case interventions that educate people about future events that they may encounter so that they are better prepared to make an informed decision when these events occur. We review research on these two approaches developed in the context of supporting everyday decisions such as choosing an apartment, a financial product or a medical pr...

Systematic approaches to data analysis from the Critical Decision Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Sedlár

2015-01-01

is based on the grounded theory which it shares with only that it enables the concepts to emerge themselves. All incident are analysed at the same time. At the beginning of the procedure it is necessary to find broad themes and within them to identify specific themes with relevant excerpts from the transcripts, which are then decomposed according to the structure describing the decision making process. In the final stage the narratives are written on the base of the information synthesis. A disadvantage of this data analysis can be greater difficulty, especially for inexperienced qualitative researchers. Obviously, the findings from both approaches should be used to facilitate the nature of the cognitive work. Recommendation are given in the conclusion.

Corporate Choice of Banks: Decision Factors, Decision Maker, and Decision Process – First Evidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ongena, S.; Tumer Alkan, G.; Vermeer, B.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we investigate how firms choose their banks. We focus on the role played by the decision factors, the decision maker and the decision process in determining firm-bank relationships. We have access to a unique survey that was run by a major bank in the Czech Republic. We find that

Mothers' process of decision making for gastrostomy placement.

Science.gov (United States)

Brotherton, Ailsa; Abbott, Janice

2012-05-01

In this article we present the findings of an exploration of mothers' discourses on decision making for gastrostomy placement for their child. Exploring in-depth interviews of a purposive sample, we analyzed the mothers' discourses of the decision-making process to understand how their experiences of the process influenced their subsequent constructions of decision making. Mothers negotiated decision making by reflecting on their personal experiences of feeding their child, either orally or via a tube, and interwove their background experiences with the communications from members of the health care team until a decision was reached. Decision making was often fraught with difficulty, resulting in anxiety and guilt. Experiences of decision making ranged from perceived coercion to true choice, which encompasses a truly child-centered decision. The resulting impact of the decision-making process on the mothers was profound. We conclude with an exploration of the implications for clinical practice and describe how health care professionals can support mothers to ensure that decision-making processes for gastrostomy placement in children are significantly improved.

Aiding Lay Decision Making Using a Cognitive Competencies Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Maule, A J; Maule, Simon

2015-01-01

Two prescriptive approaches have evolved to aid human decision making: just in time interventions that provide support as a decision is being made; and just in case interventions that educate people about future events that they may encounter so that they are better prepared to make an informed decision when these events occur. We review research on these two approaches developed in the context of supporting everyday decisions such as choosing an apartment, a financial product or a medical procedure. We argue that the lack of an underlying prescriptive theory has limited the development and evaluation of these interventions. We draw on recent descriptive research on the cognitive competencies that underpin human decision making to suggest new ways of interpreting how and why existing decision aids may be effective and suggest a different way of evaluating their effectiveness. We also briefly outline how our approach has the potential to develop new interventions to support everyday decision making and highlight the benefits of drawing on descriptive research when developing and evaluating interventions.

24 CFR 55.20 - Decision making process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Decision making process. 55.20 Section 55.20 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT Procedures for Making Determinations on Floodplain Management § 55.20 Decision making process. The decision making...

Reliability-oriented multi-objective optimal decision-making approach for uncertainty-based watershed load reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong, Feifei; Liu, Yong; Su, Han; Zou, Rui; Guo, Huaicheng

2015-01-01

Water quality management and load reduction are subject to inherent uncertainties in watershed systems and competing decision objectives. Therefore, optimal decision-making modeling in watershed load reduction is suffering due to the following challenges: (a) it is difficult to obtain absolutely “optimal” solutions, and (b) decision schemes may be vulnerable to failure. The probability that solutions are feasible under uncertainties is defined as reliability. A reliability-oriented multi-objective (ROMO) decision-making approach was proposed in this study for optimal decision making with stochastic parameters and multiple decision reliability objectives. Lake Dianchi, one of the three most eutrophic lakes in China, was examined as a case study for optimal watershed nutrient load reduction to restore lake water quality. This study aimed to maximize reliability levels from considerations of cost and load reductions. The Pareto solutions of the ROMO optimization model were generated with the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, demonstrating schemes representing different biases towards reliability. The Pareto fronts of six maximum allowable emission (MAE) scenarios were obtained, which indicated that decisions may be unreliable under unpractical load reduction requirements. A decision scheme identification process was conducted using the back propagation neural network (BPNN) method to provide a shortcut for identifying schemes at specific reliability levels for decision makers. The model results indicated that the ROMO approach can offer decision makers great insights into reliability tradeoffs and can thus help them to avoid ineffective decisions. - Highlights: • Reliability-oriented multi-objective (ROMO) optimal decision approach was proposed. • The approach can avoid specifying reliability levels prior to optimization modeling. • Multiple reliability objectives can be systematically balanced using Pareto fronts. • Neural network model was used to

Reliability-oriented multi-objective optimal decision-making approach for uncertainty-based watershed load reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dong, Feifei [College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences (MOE), Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Liu, Yong, E-mail: yongliu@pku.edu.cn [College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences (MOE), Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Institute of Water Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Su, Han [College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences (MOE), Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Zou, Rui [Tetra Tech, Inc., 10306 Eaton Place, Ste 340, Fairfax, VA 22030 (United States); Yunnan Key Laboratory of Pollution Process and Management of Plateau Lake-Watershed, Kunming 650034 (China); Guo, Huaicheng [College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences (MOE), Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China)

2015-05-15

Water quality management and load reduction are subject to inherent uncertainties in watershed systems and competing decision objectives. Therefore, optimal decision-making modeling in watershed load reduction is suffering due to the following challenges: (a) it is difficult to obtain absolutely “optimal” solutions, and (b) decision schemes may be vulnerable to failure. The probability that solutions are feasible under uncertainties is defined as reliability. A reliability-oriented multi-objective (ROMO) decision-making approach was proposed in this study for optimal decision making with stochastic parameters and multiple decision reliability objectives. Lake Dianchi, one of the three most eutrophic lakes in China, was examined as a case study for optimal watershed nutrient load reduction to restore lake water quality. This study aimed to maximize reliability levels from considerations of cost and load reductions. The Pareto solutions of the ROMO optimization model were generated with the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, demonstrating schemes representing different biases towards reliability. The Pareto fronts of six maximum allowable emission (MAE) scenarios were obtained, which indicated that decisions may be unreliable under unpractical load reduction requirements. A decision scheme identification process was conducted using the back propagation neural network (BPNN) method to provide a shortcut for identifying schemes at specific reliability levels for decision makers. The model results indicated that the ROMO approach can offer decision makers great insights into reliability tradeoffs and can thus help them to avoid ineffective decisions. - Highlights: • Reliability-oriented multi-objective (ROMO) optimal decision approach was proposed. • The approach can avoid specifying reliability levels prior to optimization modeling. • Multiple reliability objectives can be systematically balanced using Pareto fronts. • Neural network model was used to

Review/decide and inquiry/decide. Two approaches to decision making. Report from a team syntegrity meeting. Project RISCOM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Kjell

1998-01-01

The meeting addressed the question how it is possible to make decision processes and risk assessment for deep repository development more transparent. The two dominant decision approaches used in Sweden and the UK, review/decide(r/d) and inquiry/decide(i/d), were discussed. The main conclusions from group discussions were: It was acknowledged that the concept of transparency includes three equally important aspects: factual issues, value issues, and stake holder's authenticity. There is a need in both countries to bring in the best aspects of both the r/d and the i/d approaches. Both approaches seem to offer possibilities and suffer limitations with respect to the segregation of facts, uncertainties and value judgements, and some sort of combination of the two may present a valuable development. However, neither the i/d nor the r/d approach seems to provide a good framework for clarification of the value issue. Experts have dominated the decision process in both countries. There is a need for a more genuine consultation process. The Swedish EIA is evolving in this direction. The regulator should take part in the process, also at an early stage. It is important that the integrity of the regulator is maintained. Rules and responsibilities of implementers, regulators, planning authorities and other decision-makers should be established early in the process. The public should know that they have access to a process that clarifies value judgements, facts, uncertainties and questions. It is necessary for the public to know what the technical issues are, and to have the means to evaluate the authenticity of the experts. It is important that political decisions are not taken without due consideration of scientific and technical arguments. There are factors beside safety assessments which are completely legitimate to consider. An approach with intense interaction between politicians, experts and the public is needed

Review/decide and inquiry/decide. Two approaches to decision making. Report from a team syntegrity meeting. Project RISCOM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andersson, Kjell [ed.] [Karinta-Konsult, Taeby (Sweden)

1998-01-01

The meeting addressed the question how it is possible to make decision processes and risk assessment for deep repository development more transparent. The two dominant decision approaches used in Sweden and the UK, review/decide(r/d) and inquiry/decide(i/d), were discussed. The main conclusions from group discussions were: It was acknowledged that the concept of transparency includes three equally important aspects: factual issues, value issues, and stake holder`s authenticity. There is a need in both countries to bring in the best aspects of both the r/d and the i/d approaches. Both approaches seem to offer possibilities and suffer limitations with respect to the segregation of facts, uncertainties and value judgements, and some sort of combination of the two may present a valuable development. However, neither the i/d nor the r/d approach seems to provide a good framework for clarification of the value issue. Experts have dominated the decision process in both countries. There is a need for a more genuine consultation process. The Swedish EIA is evolving in this direction. The regulator should take part in the process, also at an early stage. It is important that the integrity of the regulator is maintained. Rules and responsibilities of implementers, regulators, planning authorities and other decision-makers should be established early in the process. The public should know that they have access to a process that clarifies value judgements, facts, uncertainties and questions. It is necessary for the public to know what the technical issues are, and to have the means to evaluate the authenticity of the experts. It is important that political decisions are not taken without due consideration of scientific and technical arguments. There are factors beside safety assessments which are completely legitimate to consider. An approach with intense interaction between politicians, experts and the public is needed.

The role of information systems in management decision making-an theoretical approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

PhD. Associate Professor Department of Management & Informatics Mihane Berisha-Namani

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In modern conditions of globalisation and development of information technology, information processing activities have come to be seen as essential to successful of businesses and organizations. Information has become essential to make decisions and crucial asset in organisations, whereas information systems is technology required for information processing. The application of information systems technology in business and organisations has opened up new possibilities for running and managing organisations, as well as has improved management decision making. The purpose of this paper is to give an understanding of the role that information systems have in management decision making and to discuss the possibilities how managers of organisations can make best use of information systems. The paper starts with identifying the functions of management and managerial roles and continue with information systems usage in three levels of decision making. It specifically addresses the way how information systems can help managers reduce uncertainty in decision making and includes some important implications of information systems usage for managers. Thus, this study provide a framework of effective use of information systems generally and offers an alternative approach to investigate the impact that information systems technology have in management decision making specifically

Probabilistic safety assessment and optimal control of hazardous technological systems. A marked point process approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.

1997-04-01

The thesis models risk management as an optimal control problem for a stochastic process. The approach classes the decisions made by management into three categories according to the control methods of a point process: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) modification of the design, and (3) operational decisions. The approach is used for optimization of plant shutdown criteria and surveillance test strategies of a hypothetical nuclear power plant

A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

2016-01-01

Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

Impulsive Control for Continuous-Time Markov Decision Processes: A Linear Programming Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dufour, F., E-mail: dufour@math.u-bordeaux1.fr [Bordeaux INP, IMB, UMR CNRS 5251 (France); Piunovskiy, A. B., E-mail: piunov@liv.ac.uk [University of Liverpool, Department of Mathematical Sciences (United Kingdom)

2016-08-15

In this paper, we investigate an optimization problem for continuous-time Markov decision processes with both impulsive and continuous controls. We consider the so-called constrained problem where the objective of the controller is to minimize a total expected discounted optimality criterion associated with a cost rate function while keeping other performance criteria of the same form, but associated with different cost rate functions, below some given bounds. Our model allows multiple impulses at the same time moment. The main objective of this work is to study the associated linear program defined on a space of measures including the occupation measures of the controlled process and to provide sufficient conditions to ensure the existence of an optimal control.

Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

OpenAIRE

Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

2015-01-01

A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a funct...

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

An approach for assessing human decision reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyy, P.

2000-01-01

This paper presents a method to study human reliability in decision situations related to nuclear power plant disturbances. Decisions often play a significant role in handling of emergency situations. The method may be applied to probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) in cases where decision making is an important dimension of an accident sequence. Such situations are frequent e.g. in accident management. In this paper, a modelling approach for decision reliability studies is first proposed. Then, a case study with two decision situations with relatively different characteristics is presented. Qualitative and quantitative findings of the study are discussed. In very simple decision cases with time pressure, time reliability correlation proved out to be a feasible reliability modelling method. In all other decision situations, more advanced probabilistic decision models have to be used. Finally, decision probability assessment by using simulator run results and expert judgement is presented

Excluded-Mean-Variance Neural Decision Analyzer for Qualitative Group Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ki-Young Song

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Many qualitative group decisions in professional fields such as law, engineering, economics, psychology, and medicine that appear to be crisp and certain are in reality shrouded in fuzziness as a result of uncertain environments and the nature of human cognition within which the group decisions are made. In this paper we introduce an innovative approach to group decision making in uncertain situations by using a mean-variance neural approach. The key idea of this proposed approach is to compute the excluded mean of individual evaluations and weight it by applying a variance influence function (VIF; this process of weighting the excluded mean by VIF provides an improved result in the group decision making. In this paper, a case study with the proposed excluded-mean-variance approach is also presented. The results of this case study indicate that this proposed approach can improve the effectiveness of qualitative decision making by providing the decision maker with a new cognitive tool to assist in the reasoning process.

Multi criteria decision making approaches for green supplier evaluation and selection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Govindan, Kannan; Rajendran, S.; Sarkis, J.

2015-01-01

A large and growing body of literature to supplier evaluation and selection exists. Literature on green supplier evaluation that considers environmental factors are relatively limited. Recently, in supply chain management decision making, approaches for evaluating green supplier performance have ...... us to identify improvements for green supplier selection process and possible future directions.......A large and growing body of literature to supplier evaluation and selection exists. Literature on green supplier evaluation that considers environmental factors are relatively limited. Recently, in supply chain management decision making, approaches for evaluating green supplier performance have...... used both qualitative and quantitative environmental data. Given this evolving research field, the goal and purpose of this paper is to analyze research in international scientific journals and international conference proceedings that focus on green supplier selection. We propose the following...

Linking Effective Project Management to Business Strategy in Oil and Gas Industry through Decision-making Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Adeleke, Adeyinka

The construction project in the oil and gas industry covers the entire spectrum of hydrocarbon production from the wellhead (upstream) to downstream facilities. In each of these establishments, the activities in a construction project include: consulting, studies, front-end engineering, detail engineering, procurement, program management, construction, installation, commissioning and start-up. Efficient management of each of the activities involved in construction projects is one of the driving forces for the successful completion of the project. Optimizing the crucial factors in project management during each phase of a project in an oil and gas industry can assist managers to maximize the use of available resources and drive the project to successful conclusions. One of these factors is the decision-making process in the construction project. Current research effort investigated the relationship between decision-making processes and business strategy in oil and gas industry using employee surveys. I recruited employees of different races, age group, genders, and years of experience in order understand their influence on the implementation of the decision-making process in oil and gas industry through a quantitative survey. Decision-making was assessed using five decision measures: (a) rational, (b) intuitive, (c) dependent, (d) avoidant, and (e) spontaneous. The findings indicated gender, age, years of work experience and job titles as primary variables with a negative relationship with decision-making approach for employees working in a major oil and gas industry. The study results revealed that the two most likely decision-making methods in oil and gas industry include: making a decision in a logical and systematic way and seek assistance from others when making a decision. Additionally, the two leading management approaches to decision-making in the oil and gas industry include: decision analysis is part of organization culture and management is committed to

Group Decision Making in Higher Education Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process.

Science.gov (United States)

Liberatore, Matthew J.; Nydick, Robert L.

1997-01-01

Examines application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to group decision-making and evaluation situations in higher education. The approach is illustrated by (1) evaluation of academic research papers at Villanova University (Pennsylvania), and (2) a suggested adaptation for the more complex problem of institutionwide strategic planning.…

Processing Information in Quantum Decision Theory

OpenAIRE

Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.

2008-01-01

A survey is given summarizing the state of the art of describing information processing in Quantum Decision Theory, which has been recently advanced as a novel variant of decision making, based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intended actions. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention int...

Factors affecting long-term-care residents' decision-making processes as they formulate advance directives.

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, Heather C; McColl, Mary Ann; Gilbert, Julie; Wong, Jiahui; Murray, Gale; Shortt, Samuel E D

2005-10-01

The purpose of this study was to describe factors contributing to the decision-making processes of elderly persons as they formulate advance directives in long-term care. This study was qualitative, based on grounded theory. Recruitment was purposive and continued until saturation was reached. Nine residents of a long-term-care facility were interviewed by use of a semistructured format. Open and axial coding of interview transcripts were carried out and the factors contributing to the decision process were defined. Elders based their decisions primarily on information gathered from personal experiences with death and illness. They obtained very little information from professionals or the media. Major factors considered by elders as they weighed information included spiritual, emotional, and social considerations. The factors considered during the decision-making process were oriented more toward the individual's experiences and less on contributions from objective sources than anticipated. Decision making for advance directives is a highly personalized process. The approach of health professionals when assisting with end-of-life decision making should be planned with these contributing factors in mind, so that the services offered to the individuals in this population best meet their needs.

Decision and Inhibitory Trees for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2018-01-01

Decision trees are one of the most commonly used tools in decision analysis, knowledge representation, machine learning, etc., for its simplicity and interpretability. We consider an extension of dynamic programming approach to process the whole set

Decision Tree Approach to Discovering Fraud in Leasing Agreements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Horvat Ivan

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Fraud attempts create large losses for financing subjects in modern economies. At the same time, leasing agreements have become more and more popular as a means of financing objects such as machinery and vehicles, but are more vulnerable to fraud attempts. Objectives: The goal of the paper is to estimate the usability of the data mining approach in discovering fraud in leasing agreements. Methods/Approach: Real-world data from one Croatian leasing firm was used for creating tow models for fraud detection in leasing. The decision tree method was used for creating a classification model, and the CHAID algorithm was deployed. Results: The decision tree model has indicated that the object of the leasing agreement had the strongest impact on the probability of fraud. Conclusions: In order to enhance the probability of the developed model, it would be necessary to develop software that would enable automated, quick and transparent retrieval of data from the system, processing according to the rules and displaying the results in multiple categories.

Simulation-based algorithms for Markov decision processes

CERN Document Server

Chang, Hyeong Soo; Fu, Michael C; Marcus, Steven I

2013-01-01

Markov decision process (MDP) models are widely used for modeling sequential decision-making problems that arise in engineering, economics, computer science, and the social sciences.  Many real-world problems modeled by MDPs have huge state and/or action spaces, giving an opening to the curse of dimensionality and so making practical solution of the resulting models intractable.  In other cases, the system of interest is too complex to allow explicit specification of some of the MDP model parameters, but simulation samples are readily available (e.g., for random transitions and costs). For these settings, various sampling and population-based algorithms have been developed to overcome the difficulties of computing an optimal solution in terms of a policy and/or value function.  Specific approaches include adaptive sampling, evolutionary policy iteration, evolutionary random policy search, and model reference adaptive search. This substantially enlarged new edition reflects the latest developments in novel ...

A Bayesian approach to unanticipated events frequency estimation in the decision making context of a nuclear research reactor facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatzidakis, S.; Staras, A.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • The Bayes’ theorem is employed to support the decision making process in a research reactor. • The intention is to calculate parameters related to unanticipated occurrence of events. • Frequency, posterior distribution and confidence limits are calculated. • The approach is demonstrated using two real-world numerical examples. • The approach can be used even if no failures have been observed. - Abstract: Research reactors are considered as multi-tasking environments having the multiple roles of commercial, research and training facilities. Yet, reactor managers have to make decisions, frequently with high economic impact, based on little available knowledge. A systematic approach employing the Bayes’ theorem is proposed to support the decision making process in a research reactor environment. This approach is characterized by low level complexity, appropriate for research reactor facilities. The methodology is demonstrated through the study of two characteristic events that lead to unanticipated system shutdown, namely the de-energization of the control rod magnet and the flapper valve opening. The results obtained demonstrate the suitability of the Bayesian approach in the decision making context when unanticipated events are considered

The decision-making process between rationality and emotions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alvino, Letizia; Franco, Massimo

2017-01-01

The decision-making process has been analyzed in several disciplines (economics, social sciences, humanities, etc.) with the aim of creating models to help decision-makers in strategy formulation. The Organizational theory takes into account both the decision-making process of individuals and groups

Visual histories of decision processes for collaborative decision making

OpenAIRE

Kozlova, Karine

2016-01-01

Remembering, understanding and reconstructing past activities is a necessary part of any learning, sense-making or decision making process. It is also essential for any collaborative activity. This dissertation investigates the design and evaluation of systems to support decision remembering, understanding and reconstruction by groups and individuals. By conducting three qualitative case studies of small professional groups, we identify the critical activities where history functionality is n...

Decision From Indecision: Conservation of Thangka Significance, Perspectives and Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacinta Boon Nee Loh

2002-11-01

Full Text Available Art may be entwined with religion, encompassing a spiritual message beyond artistic form and design. The thangka is one such sacred art in this world. Each thangka is created for a specific purpose and will always be different from other ones. It is for this reason and other values that they are conserved for the present and the future. The thangka poses complex challenges for conservators because of its composite nature and the wealth of values it embodies. It demands a balanced approach that looks into its material and conceptual integrity. Each of us has different aesthetic standards in interpretation of the thangka. This research explores the approaches and perspectives of thangka conservation, in particular embroidered/ appliqué thangkas and the influence of their significance in the decision-making process of their conservation. Through this investigation, the author establishes a framework of decision-making and her perspectives to thangka conservation.

Nuclear emergency response planning based on participatory decision analytic approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinkko, K.

2004-10-01

This work was undertaken in order to develop methods and techniques for evaluating systematically and comprehensively protective action strategies in the case of a nuclear or radiation emergency. This was done in a way that the concerns and issues of all key players related to decisions on protective actions could be aggregated into decision- making transparently and in an equal manner. An approach called facilitated workshop, based on the theory of Decision Analysis, was tailored and tested in the planning of actions to be taken. The work builds on case studies in which it was assumed that a hypothetical accident in a nuclear power plant had led to a release of considerable amounts of radionuclides and therefore different types of protective actions should be considered. Altogether six workshops were organised in which all key players were represented, i.e., the authorities, expert organisations, industry and agricultural producers. The participants were those responsible for preparing advice or presenting matters for those responsible for the formal decision-making. Many preparatory meetings were held with various experts to prepare information for the workshops. It was considered essential that the set-up strictly follow the decision- making process to which the key players are accustomed. Key players or stakeholders comprise responsible administrators and organisations, politicians as well as representatives of the citizens affected and other persons who will and are likely to take part in decision-making in nuclear emergencies. The realistic nature and the disciplined process of a facilitated workshop and commitment to decision-making yielded up insight in many radiation protection issues. The objectives and attributes which are considered in a decision on protective actions were discussed in many occasions and were defined for different accident scenario to come. In the workshops intervention levels were derived according justification and optimisation

A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabine Prezenski

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying

A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Prezenski, Sabine; Brechmann, André; Wolff, Susann; Russwinkel, Nele

2017-01-01

Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying cognitive processes from

International Outsourcing: a process approach to the apparel industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Rosario Alves Moreira

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Objective – The purpose of this paper is to build a framework for an international outsourcing process in the apparel industry that can serve to support managerial decisions and actions regarding outsourcing choices and implementation. Design/methodology/approach – We developed of a straightforward and flexible framework describing the main stages of the international outsourcing process and its main activities with application in the context of the apparel industry. A case study approach was adopted with primary data collected through in-depth interviews and secondary data aggregated from company reports and documents. Theoretical foundation – Some research gaps in the outsourcing literature and most specifically on the matter of international outsourcing were identified by Hatonen and Eriksson (2009 and Kakabadse and Kakabadse (2000, among others. Specifically, these authors claim that there is not enough research on developing and offering decision models, tools or guidelines to support managerial decisions with the appropriate empirical evidence. This study aims to address this gap. Findings – We found that the international outsourcing process can be described using the proposed framework. Apparel companies can use this framework to support and supervise international outsourcing processes. Practical implications – This study provides a simple model that can help companies in the apparel industry to enhance their outsourcing activities and operations, and also contributes to a broader academic understanding of the matter.

Understanding dynamics of strategic decision-making in venture creation: a process study of effectuation and causation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reymen, I.M.M.J.; Andries, P.; Berends, J.J.; Mauer, R.; Stephan, U.; van Burg, J.C.

2015-01-01

This study draws upon effectuation and causation as examples of planning-based and flexible decision-making logics and investigates dynamics in the use of both logics. The study applies a longitudinal process research approach to investigate strategic decision making in new venture creation over

Probabilistic safety assessment and optimal control of hazardous technological systems. A marked point process approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmberg, J [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland)

1997-04-01

The thesis models risk management as an optimal control problem for a stochastic process. The approach classes the decisions made by management into three categories according to the control methods of a point process: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) modification of the design, and (3) operational decisions. The approach is used for optimization of plant shutdown criteria and surveillance test strategies of a hypothetical nuclear power plant. 62 refs. The thesis includes also five previous publications by author.

Dynamic Programming Approach for Exact Decision Rule Optimization

KAUST Repository

Amin, Talha M.; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

2013-01-01

This chapter is devoted to the study of an extension of dynamic programming approach that allows sequential optimization of exact decision rules relative to the length and coverage. It contains also results of experiments with decision tables from

THE CONTRIBUTION OF PHILOSOPHY AND PSYCHOLOGY IN THE ETHICAL DECISION MAKING PROCESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DANIELA LIVIA DOLTU

2010-11-01

Full Text Available This article aims to explore the relationship between morality and organizational culture with reference to the process of ethical decision making and to the cooperation between philosopher and psychologist for the improvement of ethical climate within a public institution. Firstly, we introduce the notion of organizational culture emphasizing the importance of moral values and their role in building a true ethical climate. Secondly, we focus on the study of ethical decision making. The process is examined from the perspective of the interaction between human personality and different elements of organizational culture. Philosophy and psychology differently approach this problem. Our intention is to bridge the gap between the two perspectives, by demonstrating their belonging to the same continuum as well as the need for knowledge from both fields in order to have a complete overview of its internal mechanisms. Deontological and utilitarian theories fail to explain by themselves the decision making process and so psychology does: moral development theories, the leadership type, and emotions have on their basis a personal moral philosophy. We will also consider the influence of social groups on individual decision making.

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vickers Andrew

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

Influence of information on behavioral effects in decision processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelarosa Longo

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Rational models in decision processes are marked out by many anomalies, caused by behavioral issues. We point out the importance of information in causing inconsistent preferences in a decision process. In a single or multi agent decision process each mental model is influenced by the presence, the absence or false information about the problem or about other members of the decision making group. The difficulty in modeling these effects increases because behavioral biases influence also the modeler. Behavioral Operational Research (BOR studies these influences to create efficient models to define choices in similar decision processes.

A dialogue-centric approach to environmental-remediation decision-making - 59115

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, Laurel; Clark, James F.

2012-01-01

This paper outlines a multi-step approach to streamline and enhance the decision-making process that guides environmental remediation. The inability of the responsible party and the various stakeholders to reach agreement on the remediation plan can delay the remediation, result in financial penalties, and lead to the development of an adversarial stance that inhibits the ability of the parties to work together in a creative and constructive manner. The approach presented by the authors is designed to expand dialogue in a way that moves it beyond technical or fiscal matters by addressing what the authors describe as the 'hidden barriers' to productive dialogue. These 'hidden barriers' include: self-interests, the perception as to how people are being treated, a lack of clarity or poor management of responsibilities and accountabilities, unclear or convoluted communication protocols, and an underlying tone of conflict and cynicism. A key element of the multi-step approach outlined in this paper is the process of uncovering these 'hidden barriers' and addressing them in a way that turns discourse into collaboration. The paper describes a model the authors have used to streamline and enhance the process of creating sustainable agreements both for the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management as well as the U.S. Department of Defense for a variety of environmental remediation projects. The results of this approach include the acceleration of an environmental clean-up from a projected 19 years to 11 years, the development of innovative technical strategies, the reduction of a major backlog of environmental proposals requiring review and comment, and the distinction accorded one group of being recognized as a model of effective partnering. The approach described has widespread implications not only because its use can be expanded to include a multitude of decision-making applications but also because of the impact it creates by expanding both the

Narrative Interest Standard: A Novel Approach to Surrogate Decision-Making for People With Dementia.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkins, James M

2017-06-17

Dementia is a common neurodegenerative process that can significantly impair decision-making capacity as the disease progresses. When a person is found to lack capacity to make a decision, a surrogate decision-maker is generally sought to aid in decision-making. Typical bases for surrogate decision-making include the substituted judgment standard and the best interest standard. Given the heterogeneous and progressive course of dementia, however, these standards for surrogate decision-making are often insufficient in providing guidance for the decision-making for a person with dementia, escalating the likelihood of conflict in these decisions. In this article, the narrative interest standard is presented as a novel and more appropriate approach to surrogate decision-making for people with dementia. Through case presentation and ethical analysis, the standard mechanisms for surrogate decision-making for people with dementia are reviewed and critiqued. The narrative interest standard is then introduced and discussed as a dementia-specific model for surrogate decision-making. Through incorporation of elements of a best interest standard in focusing on the current benefit-burden ratio and elements of narrative to provide context, history, and flexibility for values and preferences that may change over time, the narrative interest standard allows for elaboration of an enriched context for surrogate decision-making for people with dementia. More importantly, however, a narrative approach encourages the direct contribution from people with dementia in authoring the story of what matters to them in their lives.

A Dynamic Intelligent Decision Approach to Dependency Modeling of Project Tasks in Complex Engineering System Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tinggui Chen

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Complex engineering system optimization usually involves multiple projects or tasks. On the one hand, dependency modeling among projects or tasks highlights structures in systems and their environments which can help to understand the implications of connectivity on different aspects of system performance and also assist in designing, optimizing, and maintaining complex systems. On the other hand, multiple projects or tasks are either happening at the same time or scheduled into a sequence in order to use common resources. In this paper, we propose a dynamic intelligent decision approach to dependency modeling of project tasks in complex engineering system optimization. The approach takes this decision process as a two-stage decision-making problem. In the first stage, a task clustering approach based on modularization is proposed so as to find out a suitable decomposition scheme for a large-scale project. In the second stage, according to the decomposition result, a discrete artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm inspired by the intelligent foraging behavior of honeybees is developed for the resource constrained multiproject scheduling problem. Finally, a certain case from an engineering design of a chemical processing system is utilized to help to understand the proposed approach.

Safeguards decision making in the public and regulatory environment, and the potential role of quantitative approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sherr, T.S.

1981-01-01

This paper briefly examines the nature of the safeguards program's objectives and constraints, and the inherent limitations on comprehensive quantification. It discusses the nature of the public and regulatory processes employed in safeguards decision making, and examines their implications regarding the potential role of quantitative approaches to safeguards policy and operational decision making

An advance care plan decision support video before major surgery: a patient- and family-centred approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Isenberg, Sarina R; Crossnohere, Norah L; Patel, Manali I; Conca-Cheng, Alison; Bridges, John F P; Swoboda, Sandy M; Smith, Thomas J; Pawlik, Timothy M; Weiss, Matthew; Volandes, Angelo E; Schuster, Anne; Miller, Judith A; Pastorini, Carolyn; Roter, Debra L; Aslakson, Rebecca A

2018-06-01

Video-based advanc care planning (ACP) tools have been studied in varied medical contexts; however, none have been developed for patients undergoing major surgery. Using a patient- and family-centredness approach, our objective was to implement human-centred design (HCD) to develop an ACP decision support video for patients and their family members when preparing for major surgery. The study investigators partnered with surgical patients and their family members, surgeons and other health professionals to design an ACP decision support video using key HCD principles. Adapting Maguire's HCD stages from computer science to the surgical context, while also incorporating Elwyn et al 's specifications for patient-oriented decision support tool development, we used a six-stage HCD process to develop the video: (1) plan HCD process; (2) specify where video will be used; (3) specify user and organisational requirements; (4) produce and test prototypes; (5) carry out user-based assessment; (6) field test with end users. Over 450 stakeholders were engaged in the development process contributing to setting objectives, applying for funding, providing feedback on the storyboard and iterations of the decision tool video. Throughout the HCD process, stakeholders' opinions were compiled and conflicting approaches negotiated resulting in a tool that addressed stakeholders' concerns. Our patient- and family-centred approach using HCD facilitated discussion and the ability to elicit and balance sometimes competing viewpoints. The early engagement of users and stakeholders throughout the development process may help to ensure tools address the stated needs of these individuals. NCT02489799. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

THE FEATURES OF THE PROCESS OF MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING IN THE ENTERPRISE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. V. Romanovskaya

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article discusses issues related to the development and acceptance of administrative decisions in the enterprise. The large number of publications in the field of research of the process of managerial decision-making demonstrates its relevance for effective management of the enterprise. The article presents the author's approach to the disclosure of the nature and concepts of the term «management decision», a substantive analysis of the main elements of the theoretical aspect of managerial decision-making. The increased competition associated with market liberalization and globalization of world economy, requires from senior management of an effective control system. The authors revised classification criteria and allocated them accordingly the kinds of management decisions; identifies the main stages of development and adoption of management decisions. The article is devoted to finding new ways of making decisions to improve the efficiency of enterprise management. It is noted that for optimal decision making, it is required to calculate the impact of its implementation on the value of the enterprise as a whole or the size of its economic effect.

Decision-making in environmental radiation protection: using the ERICA Integrated Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zinger, I.; Copplestone, D.; Howard, B.J.

2008-01-01

The ERICA Integrated Approach and its associated tool and databases provide a method by which the likely impact of radioactive discharges on the environment can be evaluated, see Fig. 1. The various factors, which should be taken into account when making decisions both during and after an assessment has been made, are discussed for each stage in the assessment process for a hypothetical case study. The assessment will demonstrate the issues associated with the decision-making process at Tiers 1 and 2 within the ERICA Tool and how they may vary. The case study, set in England, evaluates the environmental impact of radioactive substances released under authorisation in response primarily to conservation legislation, because of the need to demonstrate that no adverse impacts will occur on Natura 2000 sites as a result of the release of an authorised substance

Proposal for an integrated risk informed decision making process for German regulators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Einarsson, Svante; Wielenberg, Andreas

2013-01-01

Regulatory decisions for German nuclear power plants (NPP) have traditionally been based on deterministic safety analyses. However, the IRRS-Mission of IAEA in 2008 proposed, among others, in 'Suggestion 25' to develop a national policy 'on the use of risk insights in the regulatory framework and decision making'. Consequently, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) launched a project with the goal of developing a proposal for a uniform federal approach on using risk information in decision making. To this end, the state of the application of probabilistic and risk informed methods has been investigated both on an international and a national level. On the international level, the concept of Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making (IRIDM) has been defined in INSAG-25. It is a structured process, in which all knowledge and requirements relevant to the issue in question are to be considered in a decision. Such knowledge and other requirements are e.g. deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses, regulatory requirements and other applicable findings (including cost-benefit analyses). The IRIDM concept according to INSAG-25 is the cornerstone of the proposal for a uniform federal German approach for IRIDM in the regulatory framework for nuclear installations in Germany. (orig.)

Exploring the Reshoring and Insourcing Decision Making Process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bals, Lydia; Kirchoff, Jon F.; Foerstl, Kai

2016-01-01

The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making process...... organizational readiness in addition to decision drivers, improve coverage of the implementation stage and explore further contingency factors such as technological advancement as well as to focus on decision makers as the unit of analysis.......The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making processes...

Theoretical aspects of cellular decision-making and information-processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Tetsuya J; Kamimura, Atsushi

2012-01-01

Microscopic biological processes have extraordinary complexity and variety at the sub-cellular, intra-cellular, and multi-cellular levels. In dealing with such complex phenomena, conceptual and theoretical frameworks are crucial, which enable us to understand seemingly different intra- and inter-cellular phenomena from unified viewpoints. Decision-making is one such concept that has attracted much attention recently. Since a number of cellular behavior can be regarded as processes to make specific actions in response to external stimuli, decision-making can cover and has been used to explain a broad range of different cellular phenomena [Balázsi et al. (Cell 144(6):910, 2011), Zeng et al. (Cell 141(4):682, 2010)]. Decision-making is also closely related to cellular information-processing because appropriate decisions cannot be made without exploiting the information that the external stimuli contain. Efficiency of information transduction and processing by intra-cellular networks determines the amount of information obtained, which in turn limits the efficiency of subsequent decision-making. Furthermore, information-processing itself can serve as another concept that is crucial for understanding of other biological processes than decision-making. In this work, we review recent theoretical developments on cellular decision-making and information-processing by focusing on the relation between these two concepts.

Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri, L.

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

Influence of information on behavioral effects in decision processes

OpenAIRE

Angelarosa Longo; Viviana Ventre

2015-01-01

Rational models in decision processes are marked out by many anomalies, caused by behavioral issues. We point out the importance of information in causing inconsistent preferences in a decision process. In a single or multi agent decision process each mental model is influenced by the presence, the absence or false information about the problem or about other members of the decision making group. The difficulty in modeling these effects increases because behavioral biases influence also the m...

Dual processing model of medical decision-making

OpenAIRE

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

2012-01-01

Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administe...

Dynamic Programming Approach for Exact Decision Rule Optimization

KAUST Repository

Amin, Talha

2013-01-01

This chapter is devoted to the study of an extension of dynamic programming approach that allows sequential optimization of exact decision rules relative to the length and coverage. It contains also results of experiments with decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013.

Consumer Decision - Making Process in E - Commerce: Case of Salzburg - Ankara

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmet Gürbüz

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In a globalized world, companies need to track the changes occur in their internal and external stakeholders in order to develop consistent strategies, structures and systems for success in e-commerce. Tracking and researching the existing and potential customers and companies as external stakeholders has become very important. This study aims to reveal a scientific approach about the purchasing decisions of e-commerce companies’ customers, to carry the e-commerce applications in Austria to Turkey, to transfer the e-commerce applications in Turkey to Austria and to contribute for the development of e-commerce. To achieve this, in-depth interviews were conducted with 16 female e-commerce users in Ankara/Turkey and in Salzburg/Austria to reveal the similarities and differences between the purchasing decision processes of different countries’ citizens. Similarities and differences in the purchasing decision process of customers were determined for the dimensions of price compatibility, practicality, accessibility, speed, comfort, convenience and cost and suggestions are offered for the development of e-commerce in Turkey.

Evaluating the investment decision-making process for business expansion into Africa: A case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason Kasozi

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Africa is a potential domain for international business. However, numerous uncertainties characterize this environment and the challenge for multinationals remains the ability to assess the true value of an Africa-bound investment project. A telecommunications’ survey was conducted on Siemens Southern Africa (Siemens and Mobile Telecommunications’ Network (MTN and the following observations were made: (1 Approaches used by the businesses to value Africa-bound investments were not comprehensive and inclusive. (2 Neutrality existed to the suggestion that Africa is unique and that investment decisions should be customized to suit it. (3 Certain approaches used by the businesses were modified to suit pertaining investment circumstances thereby differing from literature, and (4, participants desired to learn new ways of improving this process suggesting dissatisfaction with the current norm. This paper presents the conflicting ideologies about the decision-making process for business expansion into Africa and suggests ways of improving the process

Domestic Abuse and Child Contact: Positioning Children in the Decision-Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

Holt, Stephanie

2011-01-01

Drawing on a three-year Irish research study, this paper focuses on the decision-making process in child contact, specifically the assessment and management of risk of continuing abuse to young people previously exposed to domestic abuse. A mixed methodological approach involved the completion of survey questionnaires by 219 mothers and the…

Information Systems to Support a Decision Process at Stanford.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaffee, Ellen Earle

1982-01-01

When a rational decision process is desired, information specialists can contribute information and also contribute to the process in which that information is used, thereby promoting rational decision-making. The contribution of Stanford's information specialists to rational decision-making is described. (MLW)

Decision-making process in investment projects

OpenAIRE

Moutinho, Nuno

2011-01-01

We present projects evaluation approaches in what decision should be based. We try to understand what we have to take into account in a project analysis, knowing that we have to consider much unmeasured aspects, like non non-financial areas. We verify how all aspects are used and analysed in the project appraisal. We also desire to understand if companies have adequate tools and methods to correctly analyse and to take decisions in a project evaluation. In this study we identify several as...

The application of reduced-processing decision support systems to facilitate the acquisition of decision-making skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Nathan C; Wiggins, Mark W; Childs, Merilyn; Fogarty, Gerard

2013-06-01

The study was designed to examine whether the availability of reduced-processing decision support system interfaces could improve the decision making of inexperienced personnel in the context of Although research into reduced-processing decision support systems has demonstrated benefits in minimizing cognitive load, these benefits have not typically translated into direct improvements in decision accuracy because of the tendency for inexperienced personnel to focus on less-critical information. The authors investigated whether reduced-processing interfaces that direct users' attention toward the most critical cues for decision making can produce improvements in decision-making performance. Novice participants made incident command-related decisions in experimental conditions that differed according to the amount of information that was available within the interface, the level of control that they could exert over the presentation of information, and whether they had received decision training. The results revealed that despite receiving training, participants improved in decision accuracy only when they were provided with an interface that restricted information access to the most critical cues. It was concluded that an interface that restricts information access to only the most critical cues in the scenario can facilitate improvements in decision performance. Decision support system interfaces that encourage the processing of the most critical cues have the potential to improve the accuracy and timeliness of decisions made by inexperienced personnel.

Integrating Click-Through and Eye-Tracking Logs for Decision-Making Process Mining

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Razvan PETRUSEL

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In current software every click of the users is logged, therefore a wealth of click-through information exists. Besides, recent technologies have made eye-tracking affordable and an alternative to other human-computer interaction means (e.g. mouse, touchscreens. A big challenge is to make sense of all this data and convert it into useful information. This paper introduces a possible solution placed in the context of decision-making processes. We show how the decision maker's activity can be traced using two means: mouse tracing (i.e. clicks and eye-tracking (i.e. eye fixations. Then, we discuss a mining approach, based on the log, which extracts a Decision Data Model (DDM. We use the DDM to determine, post-hoc, which decision strategy was employed. The paper concludes with a validation based on a controlled experiment.

43 CFR 36.7 - Decision process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... so notify the applicant in writing. (2) Each appropriate Federal agency in making its decision shall... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Decision process. 36.7 Section 36.7 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITY SYSTEMS IN AND ACROSS...

Decision making under uncertainty: a quasimetric approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steve N'Guyen

Full Text Available We propose a new approach for solving a class of discrete decision making problems under uncertainty with positive cost. This issue concerns multiple and diverse fields such as engineering, economics, artificial intelligence, cognitive science and many others. Basically, an agent has to choose a single or series of actions from a set of options, without knowing for sure their consequences. Schematically, two main approaches have been followed: either the agent learns which option is the correct one to choose in a given situation by trial and error, or the agent already has some knowledge on the possible consequences of his decisions; this knowledge being generally expressed as a conditional probability distribution. In the latter case, several optimal or suboptimal methods have been proposed to exploit this uncertain knowledge in various contexts. In this work, we propose following a different approach, based on the geometric intuition of distance. More precisely, we define a goal independent quasimetric structure on the state space, taking into account both cost function and transition probability. We then compare precision and computation time with classical approaches.

Modeling as a Decision-Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.

2017-01-01

The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

OpenAIRE

Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

2010-01-01

Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

Decision and Inhibitory Trees for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2018-06-06

Decision trees are one of the most commonly used tools in decision analysis, knowledge representation, machine learning, etc., for its simplicity and interpretability. We consider an extension of dynamic programming approach to process the whole set of decision trees for the given decision table which was previously only attainable by brute-force algorithms. We study decision tables with many-valued decisions (each row may contain multiple decisions) because they are more reasonable models of data in many cases. To address this problem in a broad sense, we consider not only decision trees but also inhibitory trees where terminal nodes are labeled with “̸= decision”. Inhibitory trees can sometimes describe more knowledge from datasets than decision trees. As for cost functions, we consider depth or average depth to minimize time complexity of trees, and the number of nodes or the number of the terminal, or nonterminal nodes to minimize the space complexity of trees. We investigate the multi-stage optimization of trees relative to some cost functions, and also the possibility to describe the whole set of strictly optimal trees. Furthermore, we study the bi-criteria optimization cost vs. cost and cost vs. uncertainty for decision trees, and cost vs. cost and cost vs. completeness for inhibitory trees. The most interesting application of the developed technique is the creation of multi-pruning and restricted multi-pruning approaches which are useful for knowledge representation and prediction. The experimental results show that decision trees constructed by these approaches can often outperform the decision trees constructed by the CART algorithm. Another application includes the comparison of 12 greedy heuristics for single- and bi-criteria optimization (cost vs. cost) of trees. We also study the three approaches (decision tables with many-valued decisions, decision tables with most common decisions, and decision tables with generalized decisions) to handle

Assistive system for people with Apraxia using a Markov decision process.

Science.gov (United States)

Jean-Baptiste, Emilie M D; Russell, Martin; Rothstein, Pia

2014-01-01

CogWatch is an assistive system to re-train stroke survivors suffering from Apraxia or Action Disorganization Syndrome (AADS) to complete activities of daily living (ADLs). This paper describes the approach to real-time planning based on a Markov Decision Process (MDP), and demonstrates its ability to improve task's performance via user simulation. The paper concludes with a discussion of the remaining challenges and future enhancements.

Decision Usefulness Approach Of Accounting Information: Bagaimana Informasi Akuntansi Menjadi Useful ?

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Zarah Puspitaningtyas

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Application of decision usefulness approach to produce accounting information that is relevant and reliable. Relevant information, that has the capacity to affect the confidence of investors about future returns, and should be released in a timely manner.The concept of decision usefulness of accounting information plays an important role in identifying problems for users of financial reports and selection of accounting information that users of financial statements to make the best decision. To apply the concept of decision usefulness is necessary linkages with the various theories in economics and finance. Decision usefulness approach assumes that individual decision makers are rational, that is individuals who will choose the action that will yield the highest expected utility.

The decision-making process between rationality and emotions

OpenAIRE

Alvino, Letizia; Franco, Massimo

2017-01-01

The decision-making process has been analyzed in several disciplines (economics, social sciences, humanities, etc.) with the aim of creating models to help decision-makers in strategy formulation. The Organizational theory takes into account both the decision-making process of individuals and groups of a company. Numerous models have been built, which include a wide range of psychological, environmental, hierarchical factors, all of which only account the notion of rationality. In time, such ...

Strategic-decision quality in public organizations : an information processing perspective

OpenAIRE

George, Bert; Desmidt, Sebastian

2018-01-01

textabstractThis study draws on information processing theory to investigate predictors of strategic-decision quality in public organizations. Information processing theory argues that (a) rational planning practices contribute to strategic-decision quality by injecting information into decision making and (b) decision makers contribute to strategic-decision quality by exchanging information during decision making. These assumptions are tested upon 55 Flemish pupil guidance centers. Rational ...

A rough set approach for determining weights of decision makers in group decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Qiang; Du, Ping-An; Wang, Yong; Liang, Bin

2017-01-01

This study aims to present a novel approach for determining the weights of decision makers (DMs) based on rough group decision in multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems. First, we construct a rough group decision matrix from all DMs' decision matrixes on the basis of rough set theory. After that, we derive a positive ideal solution (PIS) founded on the average matrix of rough group decision, and negative ideal solutions (NISs) founded on the lower and upper limit matrixes of rough group decision. Then, we obtain the weight of each group member and priority order of alternatives by using relative closeness method, which depends on the distances from each individual group member' decision to the PIS and NISs. Through comparisons with existing methods and an on-line business manager selection example, the proposed method show that it can provide more insights into the subjectivity and vagueness of DMs' evaluations and selections.

Decision-making in multinational enterprises: concepts and research approaches.

OpenAIRE

Ghertman M

1984-01-01

ILO pub. Working paper on decision making processes in multinational enterprises - gives definition, type and classification of decision making in large enterprises; outlines the centralization decentralization theory and the iterative process; notes research needs. Bibliography.

A Framework for Treating Uncertainty to Facilitate Waste Disposal Decision Making - Application of the Approach to GCD Performance Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, T.J.; Cochran, J.R.; Gallegos, D.P.

1999-01-01

This paper presents an approach for treating uncertainty in the performance assessment process to efficiently address regulatory performance objectives for radioactive waste disposal and discusses the application of the approach at the Greater Confinement Disposal site. In this approach, the performance assessment methodology uses probabilistic risk assessment concepts to guide effective decisions about site characterization activities and provides a path toward reasonable assurance regarding regulatory compliance decisions. Although the approach is particularly amenable to requirements that are probabilistic in nature, the approach is also applicable to deterministic standards such as the dose-based and concentration-based requirements

Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

Science.gov (United States)

Caspers, Svenja; Heim, Stefan; Lucas, Marc G; Stephan, Egon; Fischer, Lorenz; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl

2012-01-01

Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

Is It Rational or Intuitive? Factors and Processes Affecting School Superintendents' Decisions When Facing Professional Dilemmas

Science.gov (United States)

Hart, Walter H.

2018-01-01

Given the critical impact of their decisions and of the community's perception of their performance, it is reasonable that school superintendents would seek to understand the factors that influence their decisions and the processes used to make them. The researcher in this study used a qualitative approach, interviewing 13 school superintendents…

An extended value-impact approach for nuclear regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, P.F.; Kastenberg, W.E.

1986-01-01

This paper presents an extended value-impact methodology with aids decision makers in ranking various alternative actions for reducing the risk associated with nuclear power reactors. It extends the state-of-the-art value-impact methodology by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a formalized decision making tool for ranking alternatives based on judgement. The AHP reduces some of the limitations present in current value-impact work, such as the inability to include subjective factors in a structured approach, as well as controversial questions such as the importance of onsite versus offsite accident costs averted, uncertainty, and impact of public opinion. In the paper, the method is applied to include a value-impact study of the implementation of either a vented-containment system or an alternative decay heat removal system as a means for reducing risk at the Grand Gulf nuclear power plant. The results of this analysis show that the method provides considerable insight to the solution of topics of interest in the decision making area of nuclear power risk management. (orig.)

The Markov Latent Effects Approach to Safety and Decision -Making; TOPICAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

COOPER, J. ARLIN

2001-01-01

The methodology in this report addresses the safety effects of organizational and operational factors that can be measured through ''inspection.'' The investigation grew out of a preponderance of evidence that the safety ''culture'' (attitude of employees and management toward safety) was frequently one of the major root causes behind accidents or safety-relevant failures. The approach is called ''Markov latent effects'' analysis. Since safety also depends on a multitude of factors that are best measured through well known risk analysis methods (e.g., fault trees, event trees, FMECA, physical response modeling, etc.), the Markov latent effects approach supplements conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems, for determining the most appropriate items to be measured, and for expressing the measurements as imprecise subjective metrics through possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A mathematical model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of the modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. Metrics are weighted according to significance of the attribute with respect to subsystems and are aggregated nonlinearly. Since the accumulating effect responds less and less to additional contribution, it is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation, which is analogous to how humans frequently make decisions. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on commonality and by reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions derived from the results are facilitated in several ways. First, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity'' (both Primary and Secondary) in order to know where to place emphasis on investigation of root causes and in considering new

Identifying knowledge in decision-making processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Anna Rose Vagn; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

2010-01-01

Managing knowledge reflects the innovation capability of a company. Mapping decision processes and links to knowledge is a way to learn more in structuring knowledge in innovation processes. Through an empirical study the paper aims to identify knowledge...

Working memory retrieval as a decision process.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, Benjamin; Raskevicius, Julius; Bays, Paul M; Pertzov, Yoni; Husain, Masud

2014-02-03

Working memory (WM) is a core cognitive process fundamental to human behavior, yet the mechanisms underlying it remain highly controversial. Here we provide a new framework for understanding retrieval of information from WM, conceptualizing it as a decision based on the quality of internal evidence. Recent findings have demonstrated that precision of WM decreases with memory load. If WM retrieval uses a decision process that depends on memory quality, systematic changes in response time distribution should occur as a function of WM precision. We asked participants to view sample arrays and, after a delay, report the direction of change in location or orientation of a probe. As WM precision deteriorated with increasing memory load, retrieval time increased systematically. Crucially, the shape of reaction time distributions was consistent with a linear accumulator decision process. Varying either task relevance of items or maintenance duration influenced memory precision, with corresponding shifts in retrieval time. These results provide strong support for a decision-making account of WM retrieval based on noisy storage of items. Furthermore, they show that encoding, maintenance, and retrieval in WM need not be considered as separate processes, but may instead be conceptually unified as operations on the same noise-limited, neural representation.

Multi-criteria decision making approaches for green supply chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Banasik, Aleksander; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, Jacqueline M.; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Claassen, G.D.H.; Vorst, van der Jack G.A.J.

2016-01-01

Designing Green Supply Chains (GSCs) requires complex decision-support models that can deal with multiple dimensions of sustainability while taking into account specific characteristics of products and their supply chain. Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approaches can be used to quantify

Contralateral prophylactic mastectomy: A qualitative approach to exploring the decision making process.

Science.gov (United States)

Greener, Judith R; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Lepore, Stephen J

2018-01-01

The proportion of women with unilateral breast cancer and no familial or genetic risk factors who elect contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) has grown dramatically, even in the absence of clear data demonstrating improved outcomes. To further extend the literature that addresses treatment decision-making, qualitative interviews were conducted with eleven women who considered CPM. A social ecological model of breast cancer treatment decision-making provided the conceptual framework, and grounded theory was used to identify the cognitive, psychosocial, and emotional influences motivating treatment choice. This research identified five themes that give context to women's decision-making experience: (1) variability in physician communication, (2) immediacy of the decision, (3) meaning of being proactive about treatment, (4) meaning of risk, and (5) women's relationship with their breasts. The results suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on a more nuanced understanding of patients' emotional reaction to breast cancer and managing the decision-making environment.

Detection of Text Lines of Handwritten Arabic Manuscripts using Markov Decision Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youssef Boulid

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In a character recognition systems, the segmentation phase is critical since the accuracy of the recognition depend strongly on it. In this paper we present an approach based on Markov Decision Processes to extract text lines from binary images of Arabic handwritten documents. The proposed approach detects the connected components belonging to the same line by making use of knowledge about features and arrangement of those components. The initial results show that the system is promising for extracting Arabic handwritten lines.

Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Glöckner, A.; Witteman, C.L.M.

2010-01-01

Intuitive-automatic processes are crucial for making judgements and decisions. The fascinating complexity of these processes has attracted many decision researchers, prompting them to start investigating intuition empirically and to develop numerous models. Dual-process models assume a clear

Dynamic programming approach for partial decision rule optimization

KAUST Repository

Amin, Talha

2012-10-04

This paper is devoted to the study of an extension of dynamic programming approach which allows optimization of partial decision rules relative to the length or coverage. We introduce an uncertainty measure J(T) which is the difference between number of rows in a decision table T and number of rows with the most common decision for T. For a nonnegative real number γ, we consider γ-decision rules (partial decision rules) that localize rows in subtables of T with uncertainty at most γ. Presented algorithm constructs a directed acyclic graph Δ γ(T) which nodes are subtables of the decision table T given by systems of equations of the kind "attribute = value". This algorithm finishes the partitioning of a subtable when its uncertainty is at most γ. The graph Δ γ(T) allows us to describe the whole set of so-called irredundant γ-decision rules. We can optimize such set of rules according to length or coverage. This paper contains also results of experiments with decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository.

Dynamic programming approach for partial decision rule optimization

KAUST Repository

Amin, Talha M.; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

2012-01-01

This paper is devoted to the study of an extension of dynamic programming approach which allows optimization of partial decision rules relative to the length or coverage. We introduce an uncertainty measure J(T) which is the difference between number of rows in a decision table T and number of rows with the most common decision for T. For a nonnegative real number γ, we consider γ-decision rules (partial decision rules) that localize rows in subtables of T with uncertainty at most γ. Presented algorithm constructs a directed acyclic graph Δ γ(T) which nodes are subtables of the decision table T given by systems of equations of the kind "attribute = value". This algorithm finishes the partitioning of a subtable when its uncertainty is at most γ. The graph Δ γ(T) allows us to describe the whole set of so-called irredundant γ-decision rules. We can optimize such set of rules according to length or coverage. This paper contains also results of experiments with decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository.

Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svenja Caspers

Full Text Available Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

Decision Dissonance: Evaluating an Approach to Measuring the Quality of Surgical Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, Floyd J.; Gallagher, Patricia M.; Drake, Keith M.; Sepucha, Karen R.

2013-01-01

Background Good decision making has been increasingly cited as a core component of good medical care, and shared decision making is one means of achieving high decision quality. If it is to be a standard, good measures and protocols are needed for assessing the quality of decisions. Consistency with patient goals and concerns is one defining characteristic of a good decision. A new method for evaluating decision quality for major surgical decisions was examined, and a methodology for collecting the needed data was developed. Methods For a national probability sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries who had a coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), a lumpectomy or a mastectomy for breast cancer, or surgery for prostate cancer during the last half of 2008, a mail survey of selected patients was carried out about one year after the procedures. Patients’ goals and concerns, knowledge, key aspects of interactions with clinicians, and feelings about the decisions were assessed. A Decision Dissonance Score was created that measured the extent to which patient ratings of goals ran counter to the treatment received. The construct and predictive validity of the Decision Dissonance Score was then assessed. Results When data were averaged across all four procedures, patients with more knowledge and those who reported more involvement reported significantly lower Decision Dissonance Scores. Patients with lower Decision Dissonance Scores also reported more confidence in their decisions and feeling more positively about how the treatment turned out, and they were more likely to say that they would make the same decision again. Conclusions Surveying discharged surgery patients is a feasible way to evaluate decision making, and Decision Dissonance appears to be a promising approach to validly measuring decision quality. PMID:23516764

Toward actionable science: Empowering ecologists to engage in the process of translation through decision-maker and stakeholder partnerships

Science.gov (United States)

Enquist, C.; Jackson, S. T.; Garfin, G. M.

2017-12-01

Translational ecology is an approach by which ecologists, stakeholders, and decision-makers work collaboratively to develop and deliver ecological research that, ideally, results in actionable science that leads to improved environmental decision-making. We analyzed a diverse array of real-world case studies and distilled six principles that characterize the practice of translational ecology: communication, commitment, collaboration, engagement, process, and decision-framing. In this talk, we highlight a subset of the case studies that illustrate these principles. Notably, we found that translational ecology is distinct from both basic and applied ecological research. As a practice, the approach deliberately extends research beyond theory or opportunistic applications, motivated by a search for outcomes that directly serve the needs of natural resource managers and decision-makers. Translational ecology is also distinct from knowledge co-production in that it does not require deep engagement between collaborators, although incorporating differing modes of co-production relative to the decision context, associated time frame, and available financial resources can greatly enhance the translational approach. Although there is a need for incentives to pursue in this type of work, we found that the creativity and context-specific knowledge of resource managers, practitioners, and decision-makers informs and enriches the scientific process, helping shape actionable science. Moreover, the process of addressing research questions arising from on-the-ground management issues, rather than from the top-down or expert-oriented perspectives of traditional science, can foster the long-term trust and commitment that is critical for long-term, sustained engagement between partners. Now, perhaps more than ever, the climate and environmental issues facing society are complex, often politicized, and value-laden. We argue that ecological science should play a key role in informing

Nurses' decision-making process in cases of physical restraint in acute elderly care: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Goethals, S; Dierckx de Casterlé, B; Gastmans, C

2013-05-01

The increasing vulnerability of patients in acute elderly care requires constant critical reflection in ethically charged situations such as when employing physical restraint. Qualitative evidence concerning nurses' decision making in cases of physical restraint is limited and fragmented. A thorough understanding of nurses' decision-making process could be useful to understand how nurses reason and make decisions in ethically laden situations. The aims of this study were to explore and describe nurses' decision-making process in cases of physical restraint. We used a qualitative interview design inspired by the Grounded Theory approach. Data analysis was guided by the Qualitative Analysis Guide of Leuven. Twelve hospitals geographically spread throughout the five provinces of Flanders, Belgium. Twenty-one acute geriatric nurses interviewed between October 2009 and April 2011 were purposively and theoretically selected, with the aim of including nurses having a variety of characteristics and experiences concerning decisions on using physical restraint. In cases of physical restraint in acute elderly care, nurses' decision making was never experienced as a fixed decision but rather as a series of decisions. Decision making was mostly reasoned upon and based on rational arguments; however, decisions were also made routinely and intuitively. Some nurses felt very certain about their decisions, while others experienced feelings of uncertainty regarding their decisions. Nurses' decision making is an independent process that requires nurses to obtain a good picture of the patient, to be constantly observant, and to assess and reassess the patient's situation. Coming to thoughtful and individualized decisions requires major commitment and constant critical reflection. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The WIPP decision plan: Charting the course for openness in the decision making process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hagers, J.

1992-01-01

In June of 1989, the Secretary of Energy requested that a plan be developed that would clearly outline the prerequisites to opening the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). It was to provide the basis for a decision making process that was not only visible to the public, but one which included public participation. It must also be dynamic enough to effectively deal with the changing legislative, regulatory, and technical environments. Based on a recognized need for openness, the Secretary's Draft Decision Plan was developed. The plan charted the course for ultimately making the decision to declare WIPP ready to receive waste for the start of test phase operations. It outlined to critics and supporters alike the rigorous and thorough process by which the internal decisions were made. The plan identified all internal prerequisites to the decision; charted the review cycles, and targeted the completion dates. It also outlined the processes outside the control of the Department, institutional issues, such as legislative land withdrawal, issuance of permits, and designation of transportation routes

Priority Setting in Indigenous Health: Why We Need an Explicit Decision Making Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael E. Otim

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Indigenous Australians have significantly poorer health outcomes than the non-Indigenous population worldwide. The Australian government has increased its investment in Indigenous health through the "Closing the Health Gap" initiative. Deciding where to invest scarce resources so as to maximize health outcomes for Indigenous peoples may require improved priority setting processes. Current government practice involves a mix of implicit and explicit processes to varying degrees at the macro and meso decision making levels. In this article, we argue that explicit priority setting should be emphasized in Indigenous health, as it can ensure that the decision making process is accountable, systematic, and transparent. Following a review of the literature, we outline four key issues that need to be considered for explicit priority setting: developing an Indigenous health "constitution," strengthening the evidence base, selecting mechanisms for priority setting, and establishing appropriate incentives and institutional structure. We then summarize our findings into a checklist that can help a decision makers ensure that explicit priority setting is undertaken in Indigenous health. By addressing these key issues, the benefits of an explicit approach, which include increased efficiency, equity, and use of evidence, can be realized, thereby maximizing Indigenous health outcomes.

A generic approach for the design of organizational decision support systems (ODSS)

OpenAIRE

Chalal, Rachid; National Institute of Computer Science; Nader, Fahima; National Institute of Computer Science

2007-01-01

The paper proposes a generic approach to design and develop an Organizational Decision Support System (ODSS). This approach is based at the follows definition: the ODSS is considered as the experts' memory and their decision-taking. Therefore, the ODSS is constituted by two elements, a strategic DSS and a specific referential of the decision situation. Our generic approach for ODSS design is based on the MUSIC (Management and Use of Co-operative Information Systems) model. An illustration of ...

Strategic-Decision Quality in Public Organizations: An Information Processing Perspective.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B.R.J. George (Bert); S. Desmidt (Sebastian)

2016-01-01

textabstractThis study draws on information processing theory to investigate predictors of strategic-decision quality in public organizations. Information processing theory argues that (a) rational planning practices contribute to strategic-decision quality by injecting information into decision

Motivated information processing and group decision refusal

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijstad, Bernard A.; Oltmanns, Jan

Group decision making has attracted much scientific interest, but few studies have investigated group decisions that do not get made. Based on the Motivated Information Processing in Groups model, this study analysed the effect of epistemic motivation (low vs. high) and social motivation (proself

Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Akar, S.; Young, K. R.

2015-02-01

Geothermal exploration projects have significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and when to walk away from a site, are two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment. Current methodologies for exploration decision making is left to subjective by subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location, including go-no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on a location. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of a particular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basic geothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This second approach was

[The Decision-Making Processes in Taiwanese Women With Repeat Caesarean Deliveries].

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shu-Wen

2016-10-01

Repeat caesarean delivery (RCD) ranks as the top reason for the high caesarean rates in Taiwan. More than 90% of Taiwanese women who have had a previous caesarean delivery chose RCD following their next pregnancy. To explore the decision-making processes regarding RCD in Taiwanese women. A qualitative approach with grounded theory was used to conduct this research. Participants were recruited from a private medical centre in northern Taiwan. Methods of data collection include in-depth interviews, observation, and field notes. Constant comparative analytical techniques were employed for data analysis. A total of 16 women chose RCD. Ensuring the well-being of mother and fetus was the core theme. Women's decisions were influenced by both internal factors (previous negative experience of birth, concern about uterine rupture, fixing the scar of previous caesarean and current pregnancy situation) and external factors (obstetrician's recommendation, the experience of female significant others, an inaccurate information from internet and the unconditional financial coverage from Health National Insurance). Decision-making processes involved searching information regarding mode of birth, evaluating vaginal birth risk, trusting obstetricians' professional judgment, and a lack of progress during the course of labour. The well-being of mother and fetus is the major concern affecting mothers' decisions regarding RCD. The majority of Taiwanese women participate passively in the decision-making process regarding their options for mode of birth. In the present study, women choices were primarily guided by reducing the risk of uterine rupture. Hospitals should reduce unnecessary induction interventions. Obstetricians should inform women of the risks and benefits of various birth modes. The government could establish a website that provides a clear explanation of the criteria for the government to financially cover the costs of RCD in order to assist women to make optimal birth

Investigation of Multi-Criteria Decision Consistency: A Triplex Approach to Optimal Oilfield Portfolio Investment Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Qaradaghi, Mohammed

techniques that can provide more flexibility and inclusiveness in the decision making process, such as Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. However, it can be observed that the MCDM literature: 1) is primarily focused on suggesting certain MCDM techniques to specific problems without providing sufficient evidence for their selection, 2) is inadequate in addressing MCDM in E&P portfolio selection and prioritization compared with other fields, and 3) does not address prioritizing brownfields (i.e., developed oilfields). This research study aims at addressing the above drawbacks through combining three MCDM methods (i.e., AHP, PROMETHEE and TOPSIS) into a single decision making tool that can support optimal oilfield portfolio investment decisions by helping determine the share of each oilfield of the total development resources allocated. Selecting these methods is reinforced by a pre-deployment and post-deployment validation framework. In addition, this study proposes a two-dimensional consistency test to verify the output coherence or prioritization stability of the MCDM methods in comparison with an intuitive approach. Nine scenarios representing all possible outcomes of the internal and external consistency tests are further proposed to reach a conclusion. The methodology is applied to a case study of six major oilfields in Iraq to generate percentage shares of each oilfield of a total production target that is in line with Iraq's aspiration to increase oil production. However, the methodology is intended to be applicable to other E&P portfolio investment prioritization scenarios by taking the specific contextual characteristics into consideration.

Granular computing and decision-making interactive and iterative approaches

CERN Document Server

Chen, Shyi-Ming

2015-01-01

This volume is devoted to interactive and iterative processes of decision-making– I2 Fuzzy Decision Making, in brief. Decision-making is inherently interactive. Fuzzy sets help realize human-machine communication in an efficient way by facilitating a two-way interaction in a friendly and transparent manner. Human-centric interaction is of paramount relevance as a leading guiding design principle of decision support systems.   The volume provides the reader with an updated and in-depth material on the conceptually appealing and practically sound methodology and practice of I2 Fuzzy Decision Making. The book engages a wealth of methods of fuzzy sets and Granular Computing, brings new concepts, architectures and practice of fuzzy decision-making providing the reader with various application studies.   The book is aimed at a broad audience of researchers and practitioners in numerous disciplines in which decision-making processes play a pivotal role and serve as a vehicle to produce solutions to existing prob...

Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

1985-09-01

The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

1985-09-01

The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

Scalable approximate policies for Markov decision process models of hospital elective admissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, George; Lizotte, Dan; Hoey, Jesse

2014-05-01

To demonstrate the feasibility of using stochastic simulation methods for the solution of a large-scale Markov decision process model of on-line patient admissions scheduling. The problem of admissions scheduling is modeled as a Markov decision process in which the states represent numbers of patients using each of a number of resources. We investigate current state-of-the-art real time planning methods to compute solutions to this Markov decision process. Due to the complexity of the model, traditional model-based planners are limited in scalability since they require an explicit enumeration of the model dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we apply sample-based planners along with efficient simulation techniques that given an initial start state, generate an action on-demand while avoiding portions of the model that are irrelevant to the start state. We also propose a novel variant of a popular sample-based planner that is particularly well suited to the elective admissions problem. Results show that the stochastic simulation methods allow for the problem size to be scaled by a factor of almost 10 in the action space, and exponentially in the state space. We have demonstrated our approach on a problem with 81 actions, four specialities and four treatment patterns, and shown that we can generate solutions that are near-optimal in about 100s. Sample-based planners are a viable alternative to state-based planners for large Markov decision process models of elective admissions scheduling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Training in Decision-making Strategies: An approach to enhance students' competence to deal with socio-scientific issues

Science.gov (United States)

Gresch, Helge; Hasselhorn, Marcus; Bögeholz, Susanne

2013-10-01

Dealing with socio-scientific issues in science classes enables students to participate productively in controversial discussions concerning ethical topics, such as sustainable development. In this respect, well-structured decision-making processes are essential for elaborate reasoning. To foster decision-making competence, a computer-based programme was developed that trains secondary school students (grades 11-13) in decision-making strategies. The main research question is: does training students to use these strategies foster decision-making competence? In addition, the influence of meta-decision aids was examined. Students conducted a task analysis to select an appropriate strategy prior to the decision-making process. Hence, the second research question is: does combining decision-making training with a task analysis enhance decision-making competence at a higher rate? To answer these questions, 386 students were tested in a pre-post-follow-up control-group design that included two training groups (decision-making strategies/decision-making strategies combined with a task analysis) and a control group (decision-making with additional ecological information instead of strategic training). An open-ended questionnaire was used to assess decision-making competence in situations related to sustainable development. The decision-making training led to a significant improvement in the post-test and the follow-up, which was administered three months after the training. Long-term effects on the quality of the students' decisions were evident for both training groups. Gains in competence when reflecting upon the decision-making processes of others were found, to a lesser extent, in the training group that received the additional meta-decision training. In conclusion, training in decision-making strategies is a promising approach to deal with socio-scientific issues related to sustainable development.

Practice guidelines in the context of primary care, learning and usability in the physicians' decision-making process--a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingemansson, Maria; Bastholm-Rahmner, Pia; Kiessling, Anna

2014-08-20

Decision-making is central for general practitioners (GP). Practice guidelines are important tools in this process but implementation of them in the complex context of primary care is a challenge. The purpose of this study was to explore how GPs approach, learn from and use practice guidelines in their day-to-day decision-making process in primary care. A qualitative approach using focus-group interviews was chosen in order to provide in-depth information. The participants were 22 GPs with a median of seven years of experience in primary care, representing seven primary healthcare centres in Stockholm, Sweden in 2011. The interviews focused on how the GPs use guidelines in their decision-making, factors that influence their decision how to approach these guidelines, and how they could encourage the learning process in routine practice.Data were analysed by qualitative content analysis. Meaning units were condensed and grouped in categories. After interpreting the content in the categories, themes were created. Three themes were conceptualized. The first theme emphasized to use guidelines by interactive contextualized dialogues. The categories underpinning this theme: 1. Feedback by peer-learning 2. Feedback by collaboration, mutual learning, and equality between specialties, identified important ways to achieve this learning dialogue. Confidence was central in the second theme, learning that establishes confidence to provide high quality care. Three aspects of confidence were identified in the categories of this theme: 1. Confidence by confirmation, 2. Confidence by reliability and 3. Confidence by evaluation of own results. In the third theme, learning by use of relevant evidence in the decision-making process, we identified two categories: 1. Design and lay-out visualizing the evidence 2. Accessibility adapted to the clinical decision-making process as prerequisites for using the practice guidelines. Decision-making in primary care is a dual process that involves

Determinants of Customers` Churn Decision in the Nigeria Telecommunication Industry: An Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sulaimon Olanrewaju Adebiyi

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP for unraveling customers’ motivation for churn of telecommunication network in Nigeria. By identifying, modeling and measuring of customers` churn motivations across four mobile telecommunication service providers in Nigeria. AHP was used to design a hierarchical model of seven criteria for customers` churning of network and investigates the relative priorities of the criteria through a pairwise comparison. The questionnaire were administered through convenient sampling to 480 mobile telecommunication customers and was completed and returned by 438 mobile phone subscribers in Lagos state, Nigeria, but only 408 copies were useful for the analysis of this study. The result shows that six out of the seven criteria have weight above 10% in their individual contribution to motivating customer churn behavior in the Nigeria telecommunication industry. The inefficient data/ internet plan criterion has the highest weight of 18.81% relative to the churn decision. Thus, AHP effectively supported modeling and analyzing subscribers` motivation toward good marketing decision for both the individual and the organization. It helps in developing an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making on complex problem of customer churn in an emerging market like Nigeria

Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

Science.gov (United States)

LaMar, Michelle M

2018-03-01

Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

Real-time multiparameter pulse processing with decision tables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hull, K.; Griffin, H.

1986-01-01

Decision tables offer several advantages over other real-time multiparameter, data processing techniques. These include very high collection rates, minimum number of computer instructions, rates independent of the number of conditions applied per parameter, ease of adding or removing conditions during a session, and simplicity of implementation. Decisions table processing is important in multiparameter nuclear spectroscopy, coincidence experiments, multiparameter pulse processing (HgI 2 resolution enhancement, pulse discrimination, timing spectroscopy), and other applications can be easily implemented. (orig.)

Use of PRA in Shuttle Decision Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri L.

2010-01-01

How do you use PRA to support an operating program? This presentation will explore how the Shuttle Program Management has used the Shuttle PRA in its decision making process. It will reveal how the PRA has evolved from a tool used to evaluate Shuttle upgrades like Electric Auxiliary Power Unit (EAPU) to a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and real-time flight decisions. Specific examples of Shuttle Program decisions that have used the Shuttle PRA as input will be provided including how it was used in the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) manifest decision. It will discuss the importance of providing management with a clear presentation of the analysis, applicable assumptions and limitations, along with estimates of the uncertainty. This presentation will show how the use of PRA by the Shuttle Program has evolved overtime and how it has been used in the decision making process providing specific examples.

Decision science: a scientific approach to enhance public health budgeting.

Science.gov (United States)

Honoré, Peggy A; Fos, Peter J; Smith, Torney; Riley, Michael; Kramarz, Kim

2010-01-01

The allocation of resources for public health programming is a complicated and daunting responsibility. Financial decision-making processes within public health agencies are especially difficult when not supported with techniques for prioritizing and ranking alternatives. This article presents a case study of a decision analysis software model that was applied to the process of identifying funding priorities for public health services in the Spokane Regional Health District. Results on the use of this decision support system provide insights into how decision science models, which have been used for decades in business and industry, can be successfully applied to public health budgeting as a means of strengthening agency financial management processes.

Funding Decisions for Newborn Screening: A Comparative Review of 22 Decision Processes in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katharina Elisabeth Fischer

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Decision-makers need to make choices to improve public health. Population-based newborn screening (NBS is considered as one strategy to prevent adverse health outcomes and address rare disease patients’ needs. The aim of this study was to describe key characteristics of decisions for funding new NBS programmes in Europe. We analysed past decisions using a conceptual framework. It incorporates indicators that capture the steps of decision processes by health care payers. Based on an internet survey, we compared 22 decisions for which answers among two respondents were validated for each observation. The frequencies of indicators were calculated to elicit key characteristics. All decisions resulted in positive, mostly unrestricted funding. Stakeholder participation was diverse focusing on information provision or voting. Often, decisions were not fully transparent. Assessment of NBS technologies concentrated on expert opinion, literature review and rough cost estimates. Most important appraisal criteria were effectiveness (i.e., health gain from testing for the children being screened, disease severity and availability of treatments. Some common and diverging key characteristics were identified. Although no evidence of explicit healthcare rationing was found, processes may be improved in respect of transparency and scientific rigour of assessment.

Constructions of accountability in child protection workers decision-making processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schrøder, Ida Marie

2014-01-01

collected from three Danish local governments and consists of 24 qualitative interviews with child protection workers, leaders and economic consultants, 12 observations of team meetings and a quantitative survey of 150 cases. The study ends summer 2014 and the results of the research will be utilized...... construction of accountability as relational effects of these new forms of accounting practice. The paper draws on the preliminary results from a 2 ½ year mixed method study of how budgeting and accounting practice influences the processes of decision-making in child protection work. The data has been...... systems – such as setting standards or deciding on the delegation of decision-making authority. Using Actor-network theory as a methodological and analytical approach, it furthermore becomes clear how the types of accountability are enacted as effects, not only by the technologies offered to support...

Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

Science.gov (United States)

Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

2013-01-01

We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

Artificial Intelligence Framework for Simulating Clinical Decision-Making: A Markov Decision Process Approach

OpenAIRE

Bennett, Casey C.; Hauser, Kris

2013-01-01

In the modern healthcare system, rapidly expanding costs/complexity, the growing myriad of treatment options, and exploding information streams that often do not effectively reach the front lines hinder the ability to choose optimal treatment decisions over time. The goal in this paper is to develop a general purpose (non-disease-specific) computational/artificial intelligence (AI) framework to address these challenges. This serves two potential functions: 1) a simulation environment for expl...

Information processing by networks of quantum decision makers

Science.gov (United States)

Yukalov, V. I.; Yukalova, E. P.; Sornette, D.

2018-02-01

We suggest a model of a multi-agent society of decision makers taking decisions being based on two criteria, one is the utility of the prospects and the other is the attractiveness of the considered prospects. The model is the generalization of quantum decision theory, developed earlier for single decision makers realizing one-step decisions, in two principal aspects. First, several decision makers are considered simultaneously, who interact with each other through information exchange. Second, a multistep procedure is treated, when the agents exchange information many times. Several decision makers exchanging information and forming their judgment, using quantum rules, form a kind of a quantum information network, where collective decisions develop in time as a result of information exchange. In addition to characterizing collective decisions that arise in human societies, such networks can describe dynamical processes occurring in artificial quantum intelligence composed of several parts or in a cluster of quantum computers. The practical usage of the theory is illustrated on the dynamic disjunction effect for which three quantitative predictions are made: (i) the probabilistic behavior of decision makers at the initial stage of the process is described; (ii) the decrease of the difference between the initial prospect probabilities and the related utility factors is proved; (iii) the existence of a common consensus after multiple exchange of information is predicted. The predicted numerical values are in very good agreement with empirical data.

Decision making and cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P

2015-01-01

We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Optimization of decision rules based on dynamic programming approach

KAUST Repository

Zielosko, Beata

2014-01-14

This chapter is devoted to the study of an extension of dynamic programming approach which allows optimization of approximate decision rules relative to the length and coverage. We introduce an uncertainty measure that is the difference between number of rows in a given decision table and the number of rows labeled with the most common decision for this table divided by the number of rows in the decision table. We fix a threshold γ, such that 0 ≤ γ < 1, and study so-called γ-decision rules (approximate decision rules) that localize rows in subtables which uncertainty is at most γ. Presented algorithm constructs a directed acyclic graph Δ γ T which nodes are subtables of the decision table T given by pairs "attribute = value". The algorithm finishes the partitioning of a subtable when its uncertainty is at most γ. The chapter contains also results of experiments with decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland.

implications of decision making process on agricultural employees

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study was designed to determine the implications of decision making process on employees' turnover in the Institute of ... Involvement in Decision Making and Agricultural Employees' Turnover in Ibadan, Nigeria 37 ..... Lack of motivation.

Can quantum approaches benefit biology of decision making?

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Taiki

2017-11-01

Human decision making has recently been focused in the emerging fields of quantum decision theory and neuroeconomics. The former discipline utilizes mathematical formulations developed in quantum theory, while the latter combines behavioral economics and neurobiology. In this paper, the author speculates on possible future directions unifying the two approaches, by contrasting the roles of quantum theory in the birth of molecular biology of the gene. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using social network analysis to examine the decision-making process on new vaccine introduction in Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Wonodi, C B; Privor-Dumm, L; Aina, M; Pate, A M; Reis, R; Gadhoke, P; Levine, O S

2012-05-01

The decision-making process to introduce new vaccines into national immunization programmes is often complex, involving many stakeholders who provide technical information, mobilize finance, implement programmes and garner political support. Stakeholders may have different levels of interest, knowledge and motivations to introduce new vaccines. Lack of consensus on the priority, public health value or feasibility of adding a new vaccine can delay policy decisions. Efforts to support country-level decision-making have largely focused on establishing global policies and equipping policy makers with the information to support decision-making on new vaccine introduction (NVI). Less attention has been given to understanding the interactions of policy actors and how the distribution of influence affects the policy process and decision-making. Social network analysis (SNA) is a social science technique concerned with explaining social phenomena using the structural and relational features of the network of actors involved. This approach can be used to identify how information is exchanged and who is included or excluded from the process. For this SNA of vaccine decision-making in Nigeria, we interviewed federal and state-level government officials, officers of bilateral and multilateral partner organizations, and other stakeholders such as health providers and the media. Using data culled from those interviews, we performed an SNA in order to map formal and informal relationships and the distribution of influence among vaccine decision-makers, as well as to explore linkages and pathways to stakeholders who can influence critical decisions in the policy process. Our findings indicate a relatively robust engagement of key stakeholders in Nigeria. We hypothesized that economic stakeholders and implementers would be important to ensure sustainable financing and strengthen programme implementation, but some economic and implementation stakeholders did not appear centrally on

A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manns PJ

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

Life-oriented approach for urban policy decision-making: Surveys and applications

OpenAIRE

Junyi Zhang; Yubing Xiong; Minh Tu Tran

2014-01-01

In this study, we propose an additional approach, called life-oriented approach, for supporting urban policy decisions. The life-oriented approach argues that people's decisions on various life choices are not independent of each other and that an understanding of life choices should not be constrained by the boundary of any single discipline. People's life choices are closely linked with the quality of life (QOL), which can be roughly captured from the perspective of life domains such as res...

Integrated catchment modelling within a strategic planning and decision making process: Werra case study

Science.gov (United States)

Dietrich, Jörg; Funke, Markus

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) redefines conventional water management approaches through a closer cross-linkage between environment and society. The role of public participation and socio-economic considerations becomes more important within the planning and decision making process. In this paper we address aspects of the integration of catchment models into such a process taking the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) as an example. Within a case study situated in the Werra river basin (Central Germany), a systems analytic decision process model was developed. This model uses the semantics of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) activity model. As an example application, the catchment model SWAT and the water quality model RWQM1 were applied to simulate the effect of phosphorus emissions from non-point and point sources on water quality. The decision process model was able to guide the participants of the case study through the interdisciplinary planning and negotiation of actions. Further improvements of the integration framework include tools for quantitative uncertainty analyses, which are crucial for real life application of models within an IWRM decision making toolbox. For the case study, the multi-criteria assessment of actions indicates that the polluter pays principle can be met at larger scales (sub-catchment or river basin) without significantly compromising cost efficiency for the local situation.

Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khrennikova, Polina [School of Management, University of Leicester, University Road Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom)

2012-12-18

The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schroedinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schroedinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

Science.gov (United States)

Khrennikova, Polina

2012-12-01

The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikova, Polina

2012-01-01

The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

Analysis of Decision Making Process in Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mochamad Sandy Triady

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Billy Beanes’s success in using data-driven decision making in baseball industry is wonderfully written by Michael Lewis in Moneyball. As a general manager in baseball team that were in the bottom position of the league from the financial side to acquire the players, Beane, along with his partner, explored the use of data in choosing the team’s player. They figured out how to determine the worth of every player.The process was not smooth, due to the condition of baseball industry that was not common with using advanced statistic in acquiring   players. Many teams still use the old paradigm that rely on experts’ judgments, intuition, or experience in decision making process. Moneyball approached that using data-driven decision making gave excellent result for Beane’s team. The team won 20 gamessequently in the 2002 season and also spent the lowest cost per win than other teams.This paper attempts to review the principles of Moneyball – The Art of Winning an Unfair Game as a process of decision making and gives what we can learn from the story in order to win the games, the unfair games.

Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

2016-01-01

The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.

Decision Making and Ratio Processing in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment.

Science.gov (United States)

Pertl, Marie-Theres; Benke, Thomas; Zamarian, Laura; Delazer, Margarete

2015-01-01

Making advantageous decisions is important in everyday life. This study aimed at assessing how patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) make decisions under risk. Additionally, it investigated the relationship between decision making, ratio processing, basic numerical abilities, and executive functions. Patients with MCI (n = 22) were compared with healthy controls (n = 29) on a complex task of decision making under risk (Game of Dice Task-Double, GDT-D), on two tasks evaluating basic decision making under risk, on a task of ratio processing, and on several neuropsychological background tests. Patients performed significantly lower than controls on the GDT-D and on ratio processing, whereas groups performed comparably on basic decision tasks. Specifically, in the GDT-D, patients obtained lower net scores and lower mean expected values, which indicate a less advantageous performance relative to that of controls. Performance on the GDT-D correlated significantly with performance in basic decision tasks, ratio processing, and executive-function measures when the analysis was performed on the whole sample. Patients with MCI make sub-optimal decisions in complex risk situations, whereas they perform at the same level as healthy adults in simple decision situations. Ratio processing and executive functions have an impact on the decision-making performance of both patients and healthy older adults. In order to facilitate advantageous decisions in complex everyday situations, information should be presented in an easily comprehensible form and cognitive training programs for patients with MCI should focus--among other abilities--on executive functions and ratio processing.

A meaning for transparency in decision processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wene, C.O. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Energy System Technology; Espejo, R. [Univ. of Lincolnshire and Humberside, Lincoln (United Kingdom). Lincoln School of Management

1999-12-01

In this paper we discuss transparency in decision processes. We argue that transparency requires fostering, producing and maintaining distributed dialogues and communications between all those affected by (the stakeholders) and those producing these decisions (the decision makers and the actors/experts). The issues raised in these dialogues will not only refer to questions of technical efficiency, but also to what is right and fair and what is considered to be good in society. Social policies, particularly those of wide social significance, are in one form or another the outcome of multiple meaning creation processes, reflecting their multiple spheres of influence, from the local to the global, from the disciplinary to the multi- and transdisciplinary. Each of these processes requires transparency. This paper is focused on the structural requirements to make these dialogues and communications effective at all levels, taking into account the need for technical explanation, proof of authenticity and legitimacy of actions. Moreover it is concerned with the alignment of these meanings creation processes in order to increase the chances of having not only a distributed but also a coherent overall decision process. Our emphasis is in defining forms of interaction among stakeholders in order to ground the debate of the policy throughout the organisation, beyond senior levels of management. The aim is increasing the demands on those responsible for policy implementation, stretching them so that they offer the best of themselves. We argue that this is the basis for a structural mechanism for transparency. The outcome of this paper is a conceptual framework to study issues of transparency in policy making which is illustrated with reference to nuclear waste management in Sweden.

A meaning for transparency in decision processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wene, C.O.; Espejo, R.

1999-01-01

In this paper we discuss transparency in decision processes. We argue that transparency requires fostering, producing and maintaining distributed dialogues and communications between all those affected by (the stakeholders) and those producing these decisions (the decision makers and the actors/experts). The issues raised in these dialogues will not only refer to questions of technical efficiency, but also to what is right and fair and what is considered to be good in society. Social policies, particularly those of wide social significance, are in one form or another the outcome of multiple meaning creation processes, reflecting their multiple spheres of influence, from the local to the global, from the disciplinary to the multi- and transdisciplinary. Each of these processes requires transparency. This paper is focused on the structural requirements to make these dialogues and communications effective at all levels, taking into account the need for technical explanation, proof of authenticity and legitimacy of actions. Moreover it is concerned with the alignment of these meanings creation processes in order to increase the chances of having not only a distributed but also a coherent overall decision process. Our emphasis is in defining forms of interaction among stakeholders in order to ground the debate of the policy throughout the organisation, beyond senior levels of management. The aim is increasing the demands on those responsible for policy implementation, stretching them so that they offer the best of themselves. We argue that this is the basis for a structural mechanism for transparency. The outcome of this paper is a conceptual framework to study issues of transparency in policy making which is illustrated with reference to nuclear waste management in Sweden

Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

2015-01-01

Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases. In this p...

Age differences in dual information-processing modes: implications for cancer decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A; Hess, Thomas M; Västfjäll, Daniel

2008-12-15

Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making, as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. The authors examined evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, reviewed the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making, and introduced how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves.

Decision-theoretic approaches to non-knowledge in economics

OpenAIRE

Svetlova, Ekaterina; van Elst, Henk

2014-01-01

We review two strands of conceptual approaches to the formal representation of a decision maker's non-knowledge at the initial stage of a static one-person, one-shot decision problem in economic theory. One focuses on representations of non-knowledge in terms of probability measures over sets of mutually exclusive and exhaustive consequence-relevant states of Nature, the other deals with unawareness of potentially important events by means of sets of states that are less complete than the ful...

How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

2004-05-17

emotional rebuttal. Conversely, people cannot make good rational decisions without at least a twinge of emotion attached to the decision . 2) Our minds... decision they make . If emotions overwhelm reason, then decisions should be postponed.27 Service biases are one of the strongest emotional bias. Any...FINAL 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process 5a. CONTRACT

Physicians' decision process for drug prescription and the impact of pharmaceutical marketing mix instruments.

Science.gov (United States)

Campo, Katia; De Staebel, Odette; Gijsbrechts, Els; van Waterschoot, Walter

2005-01-01

This paper provides an in-depth, qualitative analysis of the physicians' decision process for drug prescription. Drugs in the considered therapeutic classes are mainly prescribed by specialists, treating patients with obligatory medical insurance, for a prolonged period of time. The research approach is specifically designed to capture the full complexity and sensitive nature of the physician's choice behavior, which appears to be more hybrid and less rational in nature than is often assumed in quantitative, model-based analyses of prescription behavior. Several interesting findings emerge from the analysis: (i) non-compensatory decision rules seem to dominate the decision process, (ii) consideration sets are typically small and change-resistant, (iii) drug cost is not a major issue for most physicians, (iv) detailing remains one of the most powerful pharmaceutical marketing instruments and is highly appreciated as a valuable and quick source of information, and (v) certain types of non-medical marketing incentives (such as free conference participation) may in some situations also influence drug choices.

A Gaussian decision-support tool for engineering design process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Spitas, Christos

2013-01-01

Decision-making in design is of great importance, resulting in success or failure of a system (Liu et al., 2010; Roozenburg and Eekels, 1995; Spitas, 2011a). This paper describes a robust decision-support tool for engineering design process, which can be used throughout the design process in either

Nurse supervisors' actions in relation to their decision-making style and ethical approach to clinical supervision.

Science.gov (United States)

Berggren, Ingela; Severinsson, Elisabeth

2003-03-01

The aim of the study was to explore the decision-making style and ethical approach of nurse supervisors by focusing on their priorities and interventions in the supervision process. Clinical supervision promotes ethical awareness and behaviour in the nursing profession. A focus group comprised of four clinical nurse supervisors with considerable experience was studied using qualitative hermeneutic content analysis. The essence of the nurse supervisors' decision-making style is deliberations and priorities. The nurse supervisors' willingness, preparedness, knowledge and awareness constitute and form their way of creating a relationship. The nurse supervisors' ethical approach focused on patient situations and ethical principles. The core components of nursing supervision interventions, as demonstrated in supervision sessions, are: guilt, reconciliation, integrity, responsibility, conscience and challenge. The nurse supervisors' interventions involved sharing knowledge and values with the supervisees and recognizing them as nurses and human beings. Nurse supervisors frequently reflected upon the ethical principle of autonomy and the concept and substance of integrity. The nurse supervisors used an ethical approach that focused on caring situations in order to enhance the provision of patient care. They acted as role models, shared nursing knowledge and ethical codes, and focused on patient related situations. This type of decision-making can strengthen the supervisees' professional identity. The clinical nurse supervisors in the study were experienced and used evaluation decisions as their form of clinical decision-making activity. The findings underline the need for further research and greater knowledge in order to improve the understanding of the ethical approach to supervision.

A communication model of shared decision making: accounting for cancer treatment decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Siminoff, Laura A; Step, Mary M

2005-07-01

The authors present a communication model of shared decision making (CMSDM) that explicitly identifies the communication process as the vehicle for decision making in cancer treatment. In this view, decision making is necessarily a sociocommunicative process whereby people enter into a relationship, exchange information, establish preferences, and choose a course of action. The model derives from contemporary notions of behavioral decision making and ethical conceptions of the doctor-patient relationship. This article briefly reviews the theoretical approaches to decision making, notes deficiencies, and embeds a more socially based process into the dynamics of the physician-patient relationship, focusing on cancer treatment decisions. In the CMSDM, decisions depend on (a) antecedent factors that have potential to influence communication, (b) jointly constructed communication climate, and (c) treatment preferences established by the physician and the patient.

Marketing Decisions and Strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuada, John Ernest

The marketing literature generally assumes that managers and customers always make rational (reasonable and logical) decisions. In real life, however, decision making process is hardly rational and straight forward. Managers and customers normally make decisions “in-action” – i.e. as they grapple...... students a variety of decision making skills as they prepare themselves to work in international companies. This is the task initiated in this book. It discusses how managers combine both rational and non-rational approaches and tools in their decision making processes, especially in international business...

Age Differences in Dual Information-Processing Modes: Implications for Cancer Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A.; Hess, Thomas M.; Västfjäll, Daniel

2008-01-01

Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. We examine evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, review the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making and introduce how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves. PMID:19058148

An analysis of systemic thinking in decision-making processes in the municipalities within the province of KwaZulu-Natal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mbuyiseni Goodlife Ntuli

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This paper advocates the adoption of systemic thinking in decision-making processes in municipalities. Most importantly, in this epoch of managing in complex and thought-provoking business environment, decision making is one of the most important skills required by any manager to remain effective. The success of a municipality or any business hinges on how well decisions are taken and implemented. In this paper, I intend to scrutinize decision making processes at strategic management levels in the municipalities within the province of KwaZulu-Natal. In doing that, a mixed method approach of qualitative and quantitative techniques was adopted in gathering data from sixty-one municipalities within the province of KwaZulu-Natal. This was done in order to substantiate theoretical perspectives from different erudite scholars on the discourse of systemic thinking in decision making processes. This notion of systemic thinking is coined upon the universally used rational decision making process model. Thus, the conceptualization of rational decision-making model was also considered in this paper, the possibility of decision failure, the complexity of the municipality, and systemic thinking as the recommended option of dealing with complexity was explored. The results indicates that the theory that underpins the adoption of systemic thinking in dealing with complexity today’s business environment is relevant.

Interim analysis: A rational approach of decision making in clinical trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Amal; Chakraborty, Bhaswat S

2016-01-01

Interim analysis of especially sizeable trials keeps the decision process free of conflict of interest while considering cost, resources, and meaningfulness of the project. Whenever necessary, such interim analysis can also call for potential termination or appropriate modification in sample size, study design, and even an early declaration of success. Given the extraordinary size and complexity today, this rational approach helps to analyze and predict the outcomes of a clinical trial that incorporate what is learned during the course of a study or a clinical development program. Such approach can also fill the gap by directing the resources toward relevant and optimized clinical trials between unmet medical needs and interventions being tested currently rather than fulfilling only business and profit goals.

Interim analysis: A rational approach of decision making in clinical trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amal Kumar

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Interim analysis of especially sizeable trials keeps the decision process free of conflict of interest while considering cost, resources, and meaningfulness of the project. Whenever necessary, such interim analysis can also call for potential termination or appropriate modification in sample size, study design, and even an early declaration of success. Given the extraordinary size and complexity today, this rational approach helps to analyze and predict the outcomes of a clinical trial that incorporate what is learned during the course of a study or a clinical development program. Such approach can also fill the gap by directing the resources toward relevant and optimized clinical trials between unmet medical needs and interventions being tested currently rather than fulfilling only business and profit goals.

Characterizing the orthodontic patient's purchase decision: A novel approach using netnography.

Science.gov (United States)

Pittman, Joseph W; Bennett, M Elizabeth; Koroluk, Lorne D; Robinson, Stacey G; Phillips, Ceib L

2017-06-01

A deeper and more thorough characterization of why patients do or do not seek orthodontic treatment is needed for effective shared decision making about receiving treatment. Previous orthodontic qualitative research has identified important dimensions that influence treatment decisions, but our understanding of patients' decisions and how they interpret benefits and barriers of treatment are lacking. The objectives of this study were to expand our current list of decision-making dimensions and to create a conceptual framework to describe the decision-making process. Discussion boards, rich in orthodontic decision-making data, were identified and analyzed with qualitative methods. An iterative process of data collection, dimension identification, and dimension refinement were performed to saturation. A conceptual framework was created to describe the decision-making process. Fifty-four dimensions captured the ideas discussed in regard to a patient's decision to receive orthodontic treatment. Ten domains were identified: function, esthetics, psychosocial benefits, diagnosis, finances, inconveniences, risks of treatment, individual aspects, societal attitudes, and child-specific influences, each containing specific descriptive and conceptual dimensions. A person's desires, self-perceptions, and viewpoints, the public's views on esthetics and orthodontics, and parenting philosophies impacted perceptions of benefits and barriers associated with orthodontic treatment. We identified an expanded list of dimensions, created a conceptual framework describing the orthodontic patient's decision-making process, and identified dimensions associated with yes and no decisions, giving doctors a better understanding of patient attitudes and expectations. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian sequential processor approach to spectroscopic portal system decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sale, K; Candy, J; Breitfeller, E; Guidry, B; Manatt, D; Gosnell, T; Chambers, D

2007-07-31

The development of faster more reliable techniques to detect radioactive contraband in a portal type scenario is an extremely important problem especially in this era of constant terrorist threats. Towards this goal the development of a model-based, Bayesian sequential data processor for the detection problem is discussed. In the sequential processor each datum (detector energy deposit and pulse arrival time) is used to update the posterior probability distribution over the space of model parameters. The nature of the sequential processor approach is that a detection is produced as soon as it is statistically justified by the data rather than waiting for a fixed counting interval before any analysis is performed. In this paper the Bayesian model-based approach, physics and signal processing models and decision functions are discussed along with the first results of our research.

An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

2015-04-01

The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Julien; Fackler, Paul L.; Nichols, James D.; Lubow, Bruce C.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Runge, Michael C.; Stith, Bradley M.; Langtimm, Catherine A.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee.

Informed Consent Obtainment, Malpractice Litigation, and the Potential Role of Shared Decision Making Approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Birkeland, Søren

2015-01-01

of the iceberg as lack of patient ‘ownership’ of the DM is not always exposed or may be explicated otherwise (alleged substandard behavior or surgery etc). SDM approaches possibly may sometimes prevent IC duty breaches, assist documenting the DM process, and reduce litigation occurrence.......Internationally, there is increasing recognition of Shared Decision Making (SDM) and Decision Aids (DAs) as measures to increase patient involvement in – and satisfaction with - decision making (DM), improve health care communication, and address bioethical autonomy principles and informed consent...... search term ‘consent’; 15th May 2015). Among 3291 lawsuits, 229 with explicit IC judgments were found. They mostly concerned the hospital sector (179; 78%) and commonly involved surgery (69), gyn/obstetrics (33), and gen. medicine (20; incl, eg, cardiology). 21 affected minor patients and 36 were cancer...

Markov decision processes in artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Sigaud, Olivier

2013-01-01

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a mathematical framework for modeling sequential decision problems under uncertainty as well as Reinforcement Learning problems. Written by experts in the field, this book provides a global view of current research using MDPs in Artificial Intelligence. It starts with an introductory presentation of the fundamental aspects of MDPs (planning in MDPs, Reinforcement Learning, Partially Observable MDPs, Markov games and the use of non-classical criteria). Then it presents more advanced research trends in the domain and gives some concrete examples using illustr

Markov Decision Processes in Practice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boucherie, Richardus J.; van Dijk, N.M.

2017-01-01

It is over 30 years ago since D.J. White started his series of surveys on practical applications of Markov decision processes (MDP), over 20 years after the phenomenal book by Martin Puterman on the theory of MDP, and over 10 years since Eugene A. Feinberg and Adam Shwartz published their Handbook

Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...

Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed

Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karmperis, Athanasios C., E-mail: athkarmp@mail.ntua.gr [Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, School of Mechanical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Athens (Greece); Army Corps of Engineers, Hellenic Army General Staff, Ministry of Defence (Greece); Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios [Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, School of Mechanical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Athens (Greece)

2013-05-15

Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.

Dissociable neural processes underlying risky decisions for self versus other

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daehyun eJung

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Previous neuroimaging studies on decision making have mainly focused on decisions on behalf of oneself. Considering that people often make decisions on behalf of others, it is intriguing that there is little neurobiological evidence on how decisions for others differ from those for self. Thus, the present study focused on the direct comparison between risky decisions for self and those for other using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. Participants (N = 23 were asked to perform a gambling task for themselves (decision-for-self condition or for another person (decision-for-other condition while in the scanner. Their task was to choose between a low-risk option (i.e., win or lose 10 points and a high-risk option (i.e., win or lose 90 points. The winning probabilities of each option varied from 17% to 83%. Compared to choices for others, choices for self were more risk-averse at lower winning probability and more risk-seeking at higher winning probability, perhaps due to stronger affective process during risky decision for self compared to other. The brain activation pattern changed according to the target of the decision, such that reward-related regions were more active in the decision-for-self condition than in the decision-for-other condition, whereas brain regions related to the theory of mind (ToM showed greater activation in the decision-for-other condition than in the decision-for-self condition. A parametric modulation analysis reflecting each individual’s decision model revealed that activation of the amygdala and the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC were associated with value computation for self and for other, respectively, during a risky financial decision. The present study suggests that decisions for self and other may recruit fundamentally distinctive neural processes, which can be mainly characterized by dominant affective/impulsive and cognitive/regulatory processes, respectively.

What makes it so difficult for nurses to coach patients in shared decision making? A process evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lenzen, Stephanie Anna; Daniëls, Ramon; van Bokhoven, Marloes Amantia; van der Weijden, Trudy; Beurskens, Anna

2018-04-01

Primary care nurses play a crucial role in coaching patients in shared decision making about goals and actions. This presents a challenge to practice nurses, who are frequently used to protocol-based working routines. Therefore, an approach was developed to support nurses to coach patients in shared decision making. To investigate how the approach was implemented and experienced by practice nurses and patients. A process evaluation was conducted using quantitative and qualitative methods. Fifteen female practice nurses (aged between 28 and 55 years), working with people suffering from diabetes, COPD, asthma and/or cardiovascular diseases, participated. Nurses were asked to apply the approach to their chronically ill patients and to recruit patients (n = 10) willing to participate in an interview or an audio-recording of a consultation (n = 13); patients (13 women, 10 men) were aged between 41 and 88 years and suffered from diabetes, COPD or cardiovascular diseases. The approach involved a framework for shared decision making about goals and actions, a tool to explore the patient perspective, a patient profiles model and a training course. Interviews (n = 15) with nurses, a focus group with nurses (n = 9) and interviews with patients (n = 10) were conducted. Nurses filled in a questionnaire about their work routine before, during and after the training course. They were asked to deliver audiotapes of their consultations (n = 13). Overall, nurses felt that the approach supported them to coach patients in shared decision making. Nurses had become more aware of their own attitudes and learning needs and reported to have had more in-depth discussions with patients. The on-the-job coaching was experienced as valuable. However, nurses struggled to integrate the approach in routine care. They experienced the approach as different to their protocol-based routines and expressed the importance of receiving support and the need for integration of the

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GAIA - A New Approach To Decision Making on Climate Disruption Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Swartz, W. H.; Nix, M.; Strong, S. B.; Fountain, G. H.; Babin, S. M.; Pikas, C. K.; Parker, C. L.; Global Assimilation of InformationAction

2011-12-01

GAIA - the Global Assimilation of Information for Action program - provides a broadly extensible framework for enabling the development of a deeper understanding of the issues associated with climate disruption. The key notion of GAIA is that the global climate problem is so complex that a "system engineering" approach is needed in order to make it understandable. The key tenet of system engineering is to focus on requirements and to develop a cost-effective process for satisfying those requirements. To demonstrate this approach we focused first on the impact of climate disruption on public health. GAIA is described in some detail on our website (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu). Climate disruption is not just a scientific problem; one of the key issues that our community has is that of translating scientific results into knowledge that can be used to make informed decisions. In order to support decision makers we have to understand their issues and how to communicate with them. In this talk, we describe how we have built a community of interest that combines subject matter experts from diverse communities (public health, climate change, government, public policy, industry, etc) with policy makers and representatives from industry to develop, on a "level playing field", an understanding of each other's points of view and issues. The first application of this technology was the development of a workshop on Climate, Climate Change and Public Health held April 12-14, 2011. This paper describes our approach to going beyond the workshop environment to continue to engage the decision maker's community in a variety of ways that translate abstract scientific data into actionable information. Key ideas we will discuss include the development of social media, simulations of global/national/local environments affected by climate disruption, and visualizations of the monetary and health impacts of choosing not to address mitigation or adaptation to climate disruption.

Examining the Role of the Human Hippocampus in Approach-Avoidance Decision Making Using a Novel Conflict Paradigm and Multivariate Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neil, Edward B; Newsome, Rachel N; Li, Iris H N; Thavabalasingam, Sathesan; Ito, Rutsuko; Lee, Andy C H

2015-11-11

Rodent models of anxiety have implicated the ventral hippocampus in approach-avoidance conflict processing. Few studies have, however, examined whether the human hippocampus plays a similar role. We developed a novel decision-making paradigm to examine neural activity when participants made approach/avoidance decisions under conditions of high or absent approach-avoidance conflict. Critically, our task required participants to learn the associated reward/punishment values of previously neutral stimuli and controlled for mnemonic and spatial processing demands, both important issues given approach-avoidance behavior in humans is less tied to predation and foraging compared to rodents. Participants played a points-based game where they first attempted to maximize their score by determining which of a series of previously neutral image pairs should be approached or avoided. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants were then presented with novel pairings of these images. These pairings consisted of images of congruent or opposing learned valences, the latter creating conditions of high approach-avoidance conflict. A data-driven partial least squares multivariate analysis revealed two reliable patterns of activity, each revealing differential activity in the anterior hippocampus, the homolog of the rodent ventral hippocampus. The first was associated with greater hippocampal involvement during trials with high as opposed to no approach-avoidance conflict, regardless of approach or avoidance behavior. The second pattern encompassed greater hippocampal activity in a more anterior aspect during approach compared to avoid responses, for conflict and no-conflict conditions. Multivoxel pattern classification analyses yielded converging findings, underlining a role of the anterior hippocampus in approach-avoidance conflict decision making. Approach-avoidance conflict has been linked to anxiety and occurs when a stimulus or situation is associated with reward

Dissociable Neural Processes Underlying Risky Decisions for Self Versus Other

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Daehyun; Sul, Sunhae; Kim, Hackjin

2013-01-01

Previous neuroimaging studies on decision making have mainly focused on decisions on behalf of oneself. Considering that people often make decisions on behalf of others, it is intriguing that there is little neurobiological evidence on how decisions for others differ from those for oneself. The present study directly compared risky decisions for self with those for another person using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants were asked to perform a gambling task on behalf of themselves (decision-for-self condition) or another person (decision-for-other condition) while in the scanner. Their task was to choose between a low-risk option (i.e., win or lose 10 points) and a high-risk option (i.e., win or lose 90 points) with variable levels of winning probability. Compared with choices regarding others, those regarding oneself were more risk-averse at lower winning probabilities and more risk-seeking at higher winning probabilities, perhaps due to stronger affective process during risky decisions for oneself compared with those for other. The brain-activation pattern changed according to the target, such that reward-related regions were more active in the decision-for-self condition than in the decision-for-other condition, whereas brain regions related to the theory of mind (ToM) showed greater activation in the decision-for-other condition than in the decision-for-self condition. Parametric modulation analysis using individual decision models revealed that activation of the amygdala and the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC) were associated with value computations for oneself and for another, respectively, during risky financial decisions. The results of the present study suggest that decisions for oneself and for other may recruit fundamentally distinct neural processes, which can be mainly characterized as dominant affective/impulsive and cognitive/regulatory processes, respectively. PMID:23519016

Applying Fuzzy Decision Making Approach to IT Outsourcing Supplier Selection

OpenAIRE

Gülcin Büyüközkan; Mehmet Sakir Ersoy

2009-01-01

The decision of information technology (IT) outsourcing requires close attention to the evaluation of supplier selection process because the selection decision involves conflicting multiple criteria and is replete with complex decision making problems. Selecting the most appropriate suppliers is considered an important strategic decision that may impact the performance of outsourcing engagements. The objective of this paper is to aid decision makers to evaluate and assess possible IT outsourc...

Activating clinical trials: a process improvement approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Diego A; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Yalcin, Ali; Zayas-Castro, José L; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2016-02-24

The administrative process associated with clinical trial activation has been criticized as costly, complex, and time-consuming. Prior research has concentrated on identifying administrative barriers and proposing various solutions to reduce activation time, and consequently associated costs. Here, we expand on previous research by incorporating social network analysis and discrete-event simulation to support process improvement decision-making. We searched for all operational data associated with the administrative process of activating industry-sponsored clinical trials at the Office of Clinical Research of the University of South Florida in Tampa, Florida. We limited the search to those trials initiated and activated between July 2011 and June 2012. We described the process using value stream mapping, studied the interactions of the various process participants using social network analysis, and modeled potential process modifications using discrete-event simulation. The administrative process comprised 5 sub-processes, 30 activities, 11 decision points, 5 loops, and 8 participants. The mean activation time was 76.6 days. Rate-limiting sub-processes were those of contract and budget development. Key participants during contract and budget development were the Office of Clinical Research, sponsors, and the principal investigator. Simulation results indicate that slight increments on the number of trials, arriving to the Office of Clinical Research, would increase activation time by 11 %. Also, incrementing the efficiency of contract and budget development would reduce the activation time by 28 %. Finally, better synchronization between contract and budget development would reduce time spent on batching documentation; however, no improvements would be attained in total activation time. The presented process improvement analytic framework not only identifies administrative barriers, but also helps to devise and evaluate potential improvement scenarios. The strength

Clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches in osteopathy - a qualitative grounded theory study.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomson, Oliver P; Petty, Nicola J; Moore, Ann P

2014-02-01

There is limited understanding of how osteopaths make decisions in relation to clinical practice. The aim of this research was to construct an explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of experienced osteopaths in the UK. Twelve UK registered osteopaths participated in this constructivist grounded theory qualitative study. Purposive and theoretical sampling was used to select participants. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews which were audio-recorded and transcribed. As the study approached theoretical sufficiency, participants were observed and video-recorded during a patient appointment, which was followed by a video-prompted interview. Constant comparative analysis was used to analyse and code data. Data analysis resulted in the construction of three qualitatively different therapeutic approaches which characterised participants and their clinical practice, termed; Treater, Communicator and Educator. Participants' therapeutic approach influenced their approach to clinical decision-making, the level of patient involvement, their interaction with patients, and therapeutic goals. Participants' overall conception of practice lay on a continuum ranging from technical rationality to professional artistry, and contributed to their therapeutic approach. A range of factors were identified which influenced participants' conception of practice. The findings indicate that there is variation in osteopaths' therapeutic approaches to practice and clinical decision-making, which are influenced by their overall conception of practice. This study provides the first explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of osteopaths. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Supporting risk-informed decisions during business process execution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Conforti, R.; Leoni, de M.; La Rosa, M.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Salinesi, C.; Norrie, M.C.; Pastor, O.

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a technique that supports process participants in making risk-informed decisions, with the aim to reduce the process risks. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process

Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

2017-11-01

Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

The decision-making process during accidents or incidents in the operational nuclear area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martins, Maria da Penha Sanches; Vanni, Silvia Regina Vanni; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de

2009-01-01

This study reflects on one of the human behavior mediating factors that face nuclear facility operators during their decision-making process. It includes some mental processes used to determine the best course of action, based on intuitive and creative decisions, within a specific set of rational conditions which depend much more on perception about threats than on theoretical knowledge. A fast and efficient decision, in an unstable and ongoing changing scenario/environment, is extremely complex. The decision-making process goes beyond the purely rational level and many times is influenced by intuition. The importance of the decision-making process leads the study to also review human factors. The methodology used in this paper is based on cognitive aspects which are focused essentially on studies such as: decision process models, decision types and human rationality limits (time) versus individual decisions. Lastly, it makes assessments on how reason, emotion and being under stress relate to the decision-making process (author)

The decision-making process during accidents or incidents in the operational nuclear area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martins, Maria da Penha Sanches; Vanni, Silvia Regina Vanni [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), SP (Brazil); Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], email: penhamartins@yahoo.com.br, e-mail: sjcvanni@yahoo.com.br; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], e-mail: delvonei@ipen.br

2009-07-01

This study reflects on one of the human behavior mediating factors that face nuclear facility operators during their decision-making process. It includes some mental processes used to determine the best course of action, based on intuitive and creative decisions, within a specific set of rational conditions which depend much more on perception about threats than on theoretical knowledge. A fast and efficient decision, in an unstable and ongoing changing scenario/environment, is extremely complex. The decision-making process goes beyond the purely rational level and many times is influenced by intuition. The importance of the decision-making process leads the study to also review human factors. The methodology used in this paper is based on cognitive aspects which are focused essentially on studies such as: decision process models, decision types and human rationality limits (time) versus individual decisions. Lastly, it makes assessments on how reason, emotion and being under stress relate to the decision-making process (author)

Culinary Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Rob

1987-01-01

Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)

Process of making decisions on loan currency: Influence of representativeness on information processing and coherence with consumption motives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anđelković Dragan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Rationality of decision maker is often reduced by heuristics and biases, and also by different types of external stimuli. In decision-making process individuals simplify phases of information selection and information processing by using heuristics, simple rules which are focused on one aspect of complex problem and ignore other aspects, and in that way 'speed up' decision-making process. This method of making decisions, although efficient in making simple decisions, can lead to mistakes in probability assessment and diminish rationality of decision maker. In that way it can influence drastically on transaction outcome for which decision is being made. The subject of this study is influence of representativeness heuristic on making financial decisions by individuals, and influence of consumption motives on stereotypical elements in information processing phase. Study was conducted by determining attitudes of respondents toward currencies, and then by conducting experiments with aim of analyzing method of making decisions on loan currency. Aim of study was determining whether and to what extent representativeness influence choice of currency in process of making loan decisions. Results of conducted behavioral experiments show that respondents, opposite to rational model, do not asses probability by processing available information and in accordance with their preferences, but by comparing decision objects with other objects which have same attributes, showing in that way moderate positive correlation between stereotypical attitudes and choice of loan currency. Experiments have shown that instrumental motive significantly influence representativeness heuristics, that is, individuals are prone to process information with diminished influence of stereotypical attitudes caused by external stimuli, in situations where there is no so called 'hedonistic decision-making'. Respondents have been making more efficient decisions if they had motive which does

A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn Merrick

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

On the Decision-Making Process in Music Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Jorgensen, Estelle R.

1985-01-01

Sketches a conceptual framework for the systematic description of decision-making processes in music education. Refers to existing formulations in education, management, marketing, and economics. Lists decision-making phases in music education, each exhibiting the characteristics of a social system. Offers a historical example of each phase. (AYC)

An approach to siting nuclear power plants: the relevance of earthquakes, faults and decision analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nair, K.; Brogan, G.E.; Cluff, L.S.; Idriss, I.M.; Mao, K.T.

1975-01-01

The regional approach to nuclear power plant siting described in this paper identifies candidate sites within the region and ranks these sites by using decision-analysis concepts. The approach uses exclusionary criteria to eliminate areas from consideration and to identify those areas which are most likely to contain candidate sites. These areas are then examined in greater detail to identify candidate sites, and the number of sites under consideration is reduced to a reasonably manageable number, approximately 15. These sites are then ranked using concepts of decision analysis. The exclusionary criteria applied relate primarily to regulatory-agency safety requirements and essential functional requirements. Examples of such criteria include proximity to population centres, presence of active faults, and the availability of cooling water. In many areas of the world, the presence of active faults and potential negative effects of earthquakes are dominant exclusionary criteria. To apply the 'active fault' criterion the region must be studied to locate and assess the activity of all potentially active faults. This requires complementary geologic (including geomorphic), historical, seismological, geodetic and geophysical investigations of the entire region. Site response studies or empirical attenuation correlations can be used to determine the relevant parameters of anticipated shaking from postulated earthquakes, and analytical testing and evaluation can be used to assess the potential extent of ground failure during an earthquake. After candidate sites are identified, an approach based on decision analysis is used to rank them. This approach uses the preferences and judgements of consumers, utility companies, the government, and other groups concerned with siting and licensing issues in the ranking process. Both subjective and objective factors are processed in a logical manner, as are the monetary and non-monetary factors and achievement of competing environmental

Theoretical Approaches in the Context of Spatial Planning Decisions and the Relation with Urban Sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Kumlu, Kadriye Burcu Yavuz; Tüdeş, Şule

2017-10-01

The sustainability agenda has maintained its importance since the days, when the production system took its capitalist form, as well as the population in the urban areas started to rise. Increasing number of both goods and the people have caused the degradation of the certain systems, which generate the urban areas. These systems could mainly be classified as social, environmental, physical and economical systems. Today, urban areas still have difficulty to protect those systems, due to the significant demand of the population. Therefore, studies related with the sustainable issues are significant in the sense of continuity of the urban systems. Therefore, in this paper, those studies in the context of the effects of physical decisions taken in the spatial planning process on urban sustainability, will be examined. The components of the physical decisions are limited to land use, density and design. Land use decisions will be examined in the context of mixed land use. On the other hand, decisions related with density will be analyzed in the sense of population density and floor area ratio (FAR). Besides, design decisions will be examined, by linking them with neighborhood design criteria. Additionally, the term of urban sustainability will only be limited to its social and environmental contexts in this study. Briefly stated, studies in the sustainable literature concerned with the effects of land use, density and design decisions taken in the spatial planning process on the social and environmental sustainability will be examined in this paper. After the compilation and the analyze of those studies, a theoretical approach will be proposed to determine social and environmental sustainability in the context of land use, density and design decisions, taken in the spatial planning process.

Full‐factorial design space exploration approach for multi‐criteria decision making of the design of industrial halls

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lee, B. (Bruno); Pourmousavian, N. (Navid); Hensen, J.L.M.

2016-01-01

Industrial halls pose high energy saving potential that is not yet explored under current design practice. Common design approaches such as parametric study or optimization are largely constrained by the assumptions and do not promote flexibility in the decision making process. Based on the unique

Decision Making Model for Business Process Outsourcing of Enterprise Content Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhuojun Yi

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Business process outsourcing (BPO in enterprise content management (ECM is a growing though immature market. BPO in ECM focuses on pursuing market transactions in the process of managing all types of content being used in organizations. However, inadequate sourcing decisions lead to organizational sensitive content exposure, high transaction cost, poor outsourcer performance, low flexibility. ECM BPO in general is rarely discussed in the literature and no discussion was found on decision making strategies in ECM BPO. In this paper, we present a decision making model for ECM BPO that will fill the literature gap and guide industry practitioners with ECM sourcing decision making strategies. Our proposed decision making model includes two parts. Part one is an ECM functional framework that shows what functionality component or functionality combinations can be outsourced. Part two is a decision making model that provides guidance for decision making in ECM BPO. We apply the model in two case studies, and the results indicate that the model can guide the sourcing decision making process for organizations, and determine the factors when considering sourcing alternatives in ECM.

Embedding a State Space Model Into a Markov Decision Process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lars Relund; Jørgensen, Erik; Højsgaard, Søren

2011-01-01

In agriculture Markov decision processes (MDPs) with finite state and action space are often used to model sequential decision making over time. For instance, states in the process represent possible levels of traits of the animal and transition probabilities are based on biological models...

A Semantic Approach with Decision Support for Safety Service in Smart Home Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Zhu, Xiaomin; Chen, Shaoli

2016-08-03

Research on smart homes (SHs) has increased significantly in recent years because of the convenience provided by having an assisted living environment. The functions of SHs as mentioned in previous studies, particularly safety services, are seldom discussed or mentioned. Thus, this study proposes a semantic approach with decision support for safety service in SH management. The focus of this contribution is to explore a context awareness and reasoning approach for risk recognition in SH that enables the proper decision support for flexible safety service provision. The framework of SH based on a wireless sensor network is described from the perspective of neighbourhood management. This approach is based on the integration of semantic knowledge in which a reasoner can make decisions about risk recognition and safety service. We present a management ontology for a SH and relevant monitoring contextual information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment and is service-oriented. We also propose a rule-based reasoning method to provide decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. A system prototype is developed to evaluate the feasibility, time response and extendibility of the approach. The evaluation of our approach shows that it is more effective in daily risk event recognition. The decisions for service provision are shown to be accurate.

A Semantic Approach with Decision Support for Safety Service in Smart Home Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoci Huang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Research on smart homes (SHs has increased significantly in recent years because of the convenience provided by having an assisted living environment. The functions of SHs as mentioned in previous studies, particularly safety services, are seldom discussed or mentioned. Thus, this study proposes a semantic approach with decision support for safety service in SH management. The focus of this contribution is to explore a context awareness and reasoning approach for risk recognition in SH that enables the proper decision support for flexible safety service provision. The framework of SH based on a wireless sensor network is described from the perspective of neighbourhood management. This approach is based on the integration of semantic knowledge in which a reasoner can make decisions about risk recognition and safety service. We present a management ontology for a SH and relevant monitoring contextual information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment and is service-oriented. We also propose a rule-based reasoning method to provide decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. A system prototype is developed to evaluate the feasibility, time response and extendibility of the approach. The evaluation of our approach shows that it is more effective in daily risk event recognition. The decisions for service provision are shown to be accurate.

Decision-making process of prenatal screening described by pregnant women and their partners.

Science.gov (United States)

Wätterbjörk, Inger; Blomberg, Karin; Nilsson, Kerstin; Sahlberg-Blom, Eva

2015-10-01

Pregnant women are often faced with having to decide about prenatal screening for Down's syndrome. However, the decision to participate in or refrain from prenatal screening can be seen as an important decision not only for the pregnant woman but also for both the partners. The aim of this study was to explore the couples' processes of decision making about prenatal screening. A total of 37 semi-structured interviews conducted at two time points were analysed using the interpretive description. The study was carried out in Maternal health-care centres, Örebro County Council, Sweden. Fifteen couples of different ages and with different experiences of pregnancy and childbirth were interviewed. Three different patterns of decision making were identified. For the couples in 'The open and communicative decision-making process', the process was straightforward and rational, and the couples discussed the decision with each other. 'The closed and personal decision-making process' showed an immediate and non-communicative decision making where the couples decided each for themselves. The couples showing 'The searching and communicative decision-making process' followed an arduous road in deciding whether to participate or not in prenatal screening and how to cope with the result. The decision-making process was for some couples a fairly straightforward decision, while for others it was a more complex process that required a great deal of consideration. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk Are Not the Same As in Decisions Under Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirsten G Volz

2012-07-01

Full Text Available We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (small world, all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (large worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries, with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift towards studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples.

[Clinical decision making and critical thinking in the nursing diagnostic process].

Science.gov (United States)

Müller-Staub, Maria

2006-10-01

The daily routine requires complex thinking processes of nurses, but clinical decision making and critical thinking are underestimated in nursing. A great demand for educational measures in clinical judgement related with the diagnostic process was found in nurses. The German literature hardly describes nursing diagnoses as clinical judgements about human reactions on health problems / life processes. Critical thinking is described as an intellectual, disciplined process of active conceptualisation, application and synthesis of information. It is gained through observation, experience, reflection and communication and leads thinking and action. Critical thinking influences the aspects of clinical decision making a) diagnostic judgement, b) therapeutic reasoning and c) ethical decision making. Human reactions are complex processes and in their course, human behavior is interpreted in the focus of health. Therefore, more attention should be given to the nursing diagnostic process. This article presents the theoretical framework of the paper "Clinical decision making: Fostering critical thinking in the nursing diagnostic process through case studies".

A decision science approach for integrating social science in climate and energy solutions

Science.gov (United States)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Krishnamurti, Tamar; Davis, Alex; Schwartz, Daniel; Fischhoff, Baruch

2016-06-01

The social and behavioural sciences are critical for informing climate- and energy-related policies. We describe a decision science approach to applying those sciences. It has three stages: formal analysis of decisions, characterizing how well-informed actors should view them; descriptive research, examining how people actually behave in such circumstances; and interventions, informed by formal analysis and descriptive research, designed to create attractive options and help decision-makers choose among them. Each stage requires collaboration with technical experts (for example, climate scientists, geologists, power systems engineers and regulatory analysts), as well as continuing engagement with decision-makers. We illustrate the approach with examples from our own research in three domains related to mitigating climate change or adapting to its effects: preparing for sea-level rise, adopting smart grid technologies in homes, and investing in energy efficiency for office buildings. The decision science approach can facilitate creating climate- and energy-related policies that are behaviourally informed, realistic and respectful of the people whom they seek to aid.

A two-phased multi-criteria decision-making approach for selecting the best smartphone

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yildiz, Aytac

2015-11-01

Full Text Available In the last 20 years, rapid and significant developments have occurred in communication and information technologies. In parallel with these developments, the importance of smartphones has increased. In addition, many smartphone manufacturers have launched and continue to launch a number of new models with many features. People who want to buy a new smartphone have difficulties selecting the best smartphone among the numerous models available on the technology markets. Therefore, smartphone selection has become a complex multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM problem for people. Hence, decision-making processes will be facilitated by using MCDM methods, and these will provide the most appropriate decision. In this paper, the best smartphone among the 28 alternatives determined by the person who will buy them are selected by using three main criteria and 17 sub-criteria with the help of a two-phased MCDM approach. In the first phase, 28 smartphone alternatives are ranked using the analytic network process (ANP. In the second phase, a model that includes the best four alternatives of ANP is created. Afterwards, the best smartphone is selected using the generalised Choquet integral (GCI method according to this model. Finally, the findings and the results are given.

The Experience of Surrogate Decision Makers on Being Approached for Consent for Patient Participation in Research. A Multicenter Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Karen E A; Prats, Clara Juando; Maione, Maria; Lanceta, Mary; Zubrinich, Celia; Jeffs, Lianne; Smith, Orla M

2017-02-01

Recruitment in critical care research differs from other contexts in important ways: patients lack decision-making capacity, uncertainty exists regarding patient prognosis, and critical illnesses are often associated with appreciable morbidity and mortality. We aimed to describe the experiences of surrogate decision makers (SDMs) in being approached for consent for critically ill patients to participate in research. A multicenter, qualitative study involving semistructured interviews with 26 SDMs, who provided or declined surrogate consent for research participation, at 5 Canadian centers nested within a multicenter observational study of research recruitment practices. Transcripts were reviewed by three qualitative researchers, and data were analyzed using grounded theory and a narrative critical analysis. SDMs were guided by an overarching desire for the patient to live. Surrogate research decision-making involved three sequential stages: (1) being approached; (2) reflecting on participation; and (3) making a decision. In stage 1, SDMs identified factors (their expectations, how they were approached, the attributes of the person approaching, and study risks and benefits) that characterized their consent encounter and affirmed a preference to be approached in person. If SDMs perceived the risk of participation to be too high or felt patients may not benefit from participation, they did not contemplate further. In stage 2, SDMs who knew the patient's wishes or had a deeper understanding of research prioritized the patient's wishes and the perceived benefits of participation. Without this information, SDMs prioritized obtaining more and better care for the patient, considered what was in their mutual best interests, and valued healthcare professional's knowledge. Trust in healthcare professionals was essential to proceeding further. In stage 3, SDMs considered six factors in rendering decisions. SDMs engaged in three sequential stages and considered six factors in

Dynamic programming approach to optimization of approximate decision rules

KAUST Repository

Amin, Talha

2013-02-01

This paper is devoted to the study of an extension of dynamic programming approach which allows sequential optimization of approximate decision rules relative to the length and coverage. We introduce an uncertainty measure R(T) which is the number of unordered pairs of rows with different decisions in the decision table T. For a nonnegative real number β, we consider β-decision rules that localize rows in subtables of T with uncertainty at most β. Our algorithm constructs a directed acyclic graph Δβ(T) which nodes are subtables of the decision table T given by systems of equations of the kind "attribute = value". This algorithm finishes the partitioning of a subtable when its uncertainty is at most β. The graph Δβ(T) allows us to describe the whole set of so-called irredundant β-decision rules. We can describe all irredundant β-decision rules with minimum length, and after that among these rules describe all rules with maximum coverage. We can also change the order of optimization. The consideration of irredundant rules only does not change the results of optimization. This paper contains also results of experiments with decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

2014-01-01

This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

A qualitative study on community pharmacists' decision-making process when making a diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinopoulou, Vassiliki; Summerfield, Paul; Rutter, Paul

2017-12-01

Self-care policies are increasingly directing patients to seek advice from community pharmacists. This means pharmacists need to have sound diagnostic decision-making skills to enable them to recognise a variety of conditions. The aim of this study was to investigate the process by which pharmacists manage patient signs and symptoms and to explore their use of decision-making for diagnostic purposes. Data were collected through semi-structured, face-to-face interviews with community pharmacists working in England, between August 2013 and November 2014. Pharmacists were asked to share their experiences on how they performed patient consultations, and more specifically how they would approach a hypothetical headache scenario. As part of the interview, their sources of knowledge and experience were also explored. Framework analysis was used to identify themes and subthemes. Eight interviews were conducted with pharmacists who had a wide range of working practice, from 1 year through to 40 years of experience. The pharmacists' main motivations during consultations were product selection and risk minimisation. Their questioning approach and decision-making relied heavily on mnemonic methods. This led to poor quality information gathering-although pharmacists acknowledged they needed to "delve deeper" but were often unable to articulate how or why. Some pharmacists exhibited elements of clinical reasoning in their consultations, but this seemed, mostly, to be unconscious and subsequently applied inappropriately. Overall, pharmacists exhibited poor decision-making ability, and often decisions were based on personal belief and experiences rather than evidence. Community pharmacists relied heavily on mnemonic methods to manage patients' signs and symptoms with diagnosis-based decision-making being seldom employed. These findings suggest practicing pharmacists should receive more diagnostic training. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Computerised Business Ethics Expert System -A new approach to improving the ethical quality of business decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernie Brenner

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Where unethical business decision-making arises from failures of ethical perception, there is an important role for ethical training and decision-making tools. These may help business people to consider all relevant issues when assessing the ethical status of potential decisions. Ethical training programmes give business people a basic understanding of the principles which underlie ethical judgements and equip them with many of the necessary skills for dealing with the ethical dilemmas which they face in their jobs. Similarly, ethical decision-making tools may guide managers through the various ethical considerations which are relevant to business decision-making and help them to develop their ethical-perceptual skills. Furthermore, by establishing and reinforcing good ethical decision-making practices, training programmes and decision-making tools may also reduce the incidence of self-consciously unethical decision-making. A new approach to improving the ethical quality of business decision-making by the use of computerized business ethics expert systems is proposed. These systems have the potential to guide business people through a process of ethical evaluation while simultaneously fulfilling an educational role, thus providing many of the benefits of both training programmes and decision-making tools. While the prospect of a computer system which could simply make ethical judgements for business people is both unrealistic and undesirable, a system which leads human decision-makers through a structured assessment process has the potential for genuine benefits. Keywords: Expert Systems, Ethical Decision Making

Exploring the decision-making process in the delivery of physiotherapy in a stroke unit.

Science.gov (United States)

McGlinchey, Mark P; Davenport, Sally

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the decision-making process in the delivery of physiotherapy in a stroke unit. A focused ethnographical approach involving semi-structured interviews and observations of clinical practice was used. A purposive sample of seven neurophysiotherapists and four patients participated in semi-structured interviews. From this group, three neurophysiotherapists and four patients were involved in observation of practice. Data from interviews and observations were analysed to generate themes. Three themes were identified: planning the ideal physiotherapy delivery, the reality of physiotherapy delivery and involvement in the decision-making process. Physiotherapists used a variety of clinical reasoning strategies and considered many factors to influence their decision-making in the planning and delivery of physiotherapy post-stroke. These factors included the therapist's clinical experience, patient's presentation and response to therapy, prioritisation, organisational constraints and compliance with organisational practice. All physiotherapists highlighted the importance to involve patients in planning and delivering their physiotherapy. However, there were varying levels of patient involvement observed in this process. The study has generated insight into the reality of decision-making in the planning and delivery of physiotherapy post-stroke. Further research involving other stroke units is required to gain a greater understanding of this aspect of physiotherapy. Implications for Rehabilitation Physiotherapists need to consider multiple patient, therapist and organisational factors when planning and delivering physiotherapy in a stroke unit. Physiotherapists should continually reflect upon how they provide physiotherapy, with respect to the duration, frequency and time of day sessions are delivered, in order to guide current and future physiotherapy delivery. As patients may demonstrate varying levels of participation in deciding and

Site selection and rating process, and criteria for a social and political approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boisseson, P. de; David, J.F.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: sensitive projects have been for long the problem of engineers and geologists, which tried to exert a kind of mono-cultural approach upon decisions regarding: a type of technical solution, a choice for a location. Experience drawn from various projects shows that public choices must be targeted to public acceptance and not only to hard-science community. Ways of rating site for sensitive projects according to criteria derived from social and political approach have been set up to provide global advice to decision makers. Bases are found among: socio economical statistics (type and rate of employment), land use regulations, history of public and local acceptance of former projects or public regulations. Representations can be drawn through social modeling and qualitative analysis. They can be of an utmost importance in decision making process. (authors)

Scientists and Stakeholders in the Chesapeake Bay: How the Mid-Atlantic RISA Strengthens Climate Resilience Through Participatory Decision-Making Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Knopman, D.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

The NOAA Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (MARISA) program was formed in September 2016 to increase climate resilience in the Mid-Atlantic, with an initial focus on the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. In this talk, we will discuss how the program's unique structure and approach are designed to advance resilience to a changing climate through improved data, place-based decision support, and public engagement. Emphasis will be placed on MARISA's approach to integrating stakeholder perspectives from the onset of decision scoping, through the creation of actionable data sets, and concluding with the co-development of adaptation strategies between the scientific community, decision-makers, and stakeholders. Specific examples of this process involving climate-sensitive decisions and investments regarding water resources, land management, and urban corridors will be discussed.

Options Evaluation for Remediation of the Gunnar Site Using a Decision- Tree Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yankovich, Tamara L. [International Atomic Energy Agency, P.O. Box 100, 1400 Vienna (Austria); Hachkowski, Andrea [CH2M Hill Canada Limited, 1305 Kenaston Blvd, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3P 2P2 (Canada); Klyashtorin, Alexey [Saskatchewan Research Council, 15 Innovation Blvd no.125, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 2X8 (Canada)

2014-07-01

Current best practice in the nuclear industry involves proactive planning of activities from cradle-to-grave over the entire nuclear life cycle in accordance with national requirements and international guidance. This includes the development of detailed decommissioning plans (DDP) at an early stage to facilitate proactive, responsible decision-making as activities are being planned. It should be noted, however, that the current approach may not be applicable to historic nuclear legacy sites, such as abandoned uranium mines and mills, which had operated in the past under less stringent regulatory regimes. In such cases, records documenting past activities are often not available and monitoring data may not have been collected, thereby limiting knowledge of impacts related to past activities. This can lead to challenges in gaining regulatory and funding approvals related to the remediation of such sites, especially given the costs that can be associated with remediation and the uncertainties in characterizing the existing situation. The Gunnar Site, in northern Saskatchewan, is an example of an abandoned uranium mine/mill site, which was operated between the late 1950's to early 1960's under a different regulatory regime than today. Due to the lack of monitoring data and records for the site, and the corresponding uncertainties, a number of precedent-setting approaches have been developed and applied, as part of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process. Specifically, unlike traditional environmental assessments for planned and operating facilities, it was not possible to identify a preferred and alternative remedial option. Instead, a step-wise decision-tree approach has been developed to identify all potentially feasible remedial options and to map out key decision points, during the licensing phase of the project (following approval of the environmental assessment), when final remedial options will be selected. The presentation will provide

A decision support system using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for the optimal environmental reclamation of an open-pit mine

Science.gov (United States)

Bascetin, A.

2007-04-01

The selection of an optimal reclamation method is one of the most important factors in open-pit design and production planning. It also affects economic considerations in open-pit design as a function of plan location and depth. Furthermore, the selection is a complex multi-person, multi-criteria decision problem. The group decision-making process can be improved by applying a systematic and logical approach to assess the priorities based on the inputs of several specialists from different functional areas within the mine company. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) can be very useful in involving several decision makers with different conflicting objectives to arrive at a consensus decision. In this paper, the selection of an optimal reclamation method using an AHP-based model was evaluated for coal production in an open-pit coal mine located at Seyitomer region in Turkey. The use of the proposed model indicates that it can be applied to improve the group decision making in selecting a reclamation method that satisfies optimal specifications. Also, it is found that the decision process is systematic and using the proposed model can reduce the time taken to select a optimal method.

Decision and intuition during organizational change : an evolutionary critique of dual process theory

OpenAIRE

Talat, U; Chang, K; Nguyen, B

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to review intuition in the context of organizational change. We argue that intuition as a concept requires attention and its formulation is necessary prior to its application in organizations. The paper provides a critique of Dual Process Theory and highlights shortcomings in organization theorizing of intuition.\\ud Design/methodology/approach: The paper is conceptual and provides in-depth theoretical discussions by drawing from the literature on decision...

Defining "adverse environmental impact" and making paragraph 316(b) decisions: a fisheries management approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, David E; Bulleit, Kristy A N

2002-05-17

The electric utility industry has developed an approach for decisionmaking that includes a definition of Adverse Environmental Impact (AEI) and an implementation process. The definition of AEI is based on lessons from fishery management science and analysis of the statutory term "adverse environmental impact" and is consistent with current natural resource management policy. The industry has proposed a definition focusing on "unacceptable risk to the population"s ability to sustain itself, to support reasonably anticipated commercial or recreational harvests, or to perform its normal ecological function." This definition focuses not on counting individual fish or eggs cropped by the various uses of a water body, but on preserving populations of aquatic organisms and their functions in the aquatic community. The definition recognizes that assessment of AEI should be site-specific and requires both a biological decision and a balancing of diverse societal values. The industry believes that the definition of AEI should be implemented in a process that will maximize the overall societal benefit of the paragraph 316(b) decision by considering the facility"s physical location, design, and operation, as well as the local biology. The approach considers effects on affected fish and shellfish populations and the benefits of any necessary best technology available (BTA) alternatives. This is accomplished through consideration of population impacts, which conversely allows consideration of the benefits of any necessary BTA modifications. This in turn allows selection of BTAs that will protect potentially affected populations in a cost-effective manner. The process also employs risk assessment with stakeholder participation, in accordance with EPA's Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment. The information and tools are now available to make informed decisions about site-specific impacts that will ensure protection of aquatic ecosystems and best serve the public interest.

Surgical Consultation as Social Process: Implications for Shared Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Clapp, Justin T; Arriaga, Alexander F; Murthy, Sushila; Raper, Steven E; Schwartz, J Sanford; Barg, Frances K; Fleisher, Lee A

2017-12-12

This qualitative study examines surgical consultation as a social process and assesses its alignment with assumptions of the shared decision-making (SDM) model. SDM stresses the importance of patient preferences and rigorous discussion of therapeutic risks/benefits based on these preferences. However, empirical studies have highlighted discrepancies between SDM and realities of surgical decision making. Qualitative research can inform understanding of the decision-making process and allow for granular assessment of the nature and causes of these discrepancies. We observed consultations between 3 general surgeons and 45 patients considering undergoing 1 of 2 preference-sensitive elective operations: (1) hernia repair, or (2) cholecystectomy. These patients and surgeons also participated in semi-structured interviews. By the time of the consultation, patients and surgeons were predisposed toward certain decisions by preceding events occurring elsewhere. During the visit, surgeons had differential ability to arbitrate surgical intervention and construct the severity of patients' conditions. These upstream dynamics frequently displaced the centrality of the risk/benefit-based consent discussion. The influence of events preceding consultation suggests that decision-making models should account for broader spatiotemporal spans. Given surgeons' authority to define patients' conditions and control service provision, SDM may be premised on an overestimation of patients' power to alter the course of decision making once in a specialist's office. Considering the subordinate role of the risk/benefit discussion in many surgical decisions, it will be important to study if and how the social process of decision making is altered by SDM-oriented decision aids that foreground this discussion.

Nonword repetition in lexical decision: support for two opposing processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Zeelenberg, René; Steyvers, Mark; Shiffrin, Richard; Raaijmakers, Jeroen

2004-10-01

We tested and confirmed the hypothesis that the prior presentation of nonwords in lexical decision is the net result of two opposing processes: (1) a relatively fast inhibitory process based on global familiarity; and (2) a relatively slow facilitatory process based on the retrieval of specific episodic information. In three studies, we manipulated speed-stress to influence the balance between the two processes. Experiment 1 showed item-specific improvement for repeated nonwords in a standard "respond-when-ready" lexical decision task. Experiment 2 used a 400-ms deadline procedure and showed performance for nonwords to be unaffected by up to four prior presentations. In Experiment 3 we used a signal-to-respond procedure with variable time intervals and found negative repetition priming for repeated nonwords. These results can be accounted for by dual-process models of lexical decision.

An expert panel approach to support risk-informed decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

2000-01-01

The report describes the expert panel methodology developed for supporting risk-informed decision making. The aim of an expert panel is to achieve a balanced utilisation of information and expertise from several disciplines in decision-making including probabilistic safety assessment as one decision criterion. We also summarise the application of the methodology in the STUK's RI-ISI (Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection) pilot study, where the expert panel approach was used to combine the deterministic information on degradation mechanisms and probabilistic information on pipe break consequences. The expert panel served both as a critical review of the preliminary results and as a decision support for the final definition of risk categories of piping. (orig.)

How Decision Support Systems Can Benefit from a Theory of Change Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Will; Cruz, Jennyffer; Warburton, Bruce

2017-06-01

Decision support systems are now mostly computer and internet-based information systems designed to support land managers with complex decision-making. However, there is concern that many environmental and agricultural decision support systems remain underutilized and ineffective. Recent efforts to improve decision support systems use have focused on enhancing stakeholder participation in their development, but a mismatch between stakeholders' expectations and the reality of decision support systems outputs continues to limit uptake. Additional challenges remain in problem-framing and evaluation. We propose using an outcomes-based approach called theory of change in conjunction with decision support systems development to support both wider problem-framing and outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation. The theory of change helps framing by placing the decision support systems within a wider context. It highlights how decision support systems use can "contribute" to long-term outcomes, and helps align decision support systems outputs with these larger goals. We illustrate the benefits of linking decision support systems development and application with a theory of change approach using an example of pest rabbit management in Australia. We develop a theory of change that outlines the activities required to achieve the outcomes desired from an effective rabbit management program, and two decision support systems that contribute to specific aspects of decision making in this wider problem context. Using a theory of change in this way should increase acceptance of the role of decision support systems by end-users, clarify their limitations and, importantly, increase effectiveness of rabbit management. The use of a theory of change should benefit those seeking to improve decision support systems design, use and, evaluation.

How Decision Support Systems Can Benefit from a Theory of Change Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Will; Cruz, Jennyffer; Warburton, Bruce

2017-06-01

Decision support systems are now mostly computer and internet-based information systems designed to support land managers with complex decision-making. However, there is concern that many environmental and agricultural decision support systems remain underutilized and ineffective. Recent efforts to improve decision support systems use have focused on enhancing stakeholder participation in their development, but a mismatch between stakeholders' expectations and the reality of decision support systems outputs continues to limit uptake. Additional challenges remain in problem-framing and evaluation. We propose using an outcomes-based approach called theory of change in conjunction with decision support systems development to support both wider problem-framing and outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation. The theory of change helps framing by placing the decision support systems within a wider context. It highlights how decision support systems use can "contribute" to long-term outcomes, and helps align decision support systems outputs with these larger goals. We illustrate the benefits of linking decision support systems development and application with a theory of change approach using an example of pest rabbit management in Australia. We develop a theory of change that outlines the activities required to achieve the outcomes desired from an effective rabbit management program, and two decision support systems that contribute to specific aspects of decision making in this wider problem context. Using a theory of change in this way should increase acceptance of the role of decision support systems by end-users, clarify their limitations and, importantly, increase effectiveness of rabbit management. The use of a theory of change should benefit those seeking to improve decision support systems design, use and, evaluation.

Identification of Optimal Policies in Markov Decision Processes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sladký, Karel

46 2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 558-570 ISSN 0023-5954. [International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economy and Industry. České Budějovice, 15.06.2009-18.06.2009] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/0107; GA ČR GA402/07/1113 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : finite state Markov decision processes * discounted and average costs * elimination of suboptimal policies Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/sladky-identification of optimal policies in markov decision processes.pdf

Nonrational Processes in Ethical Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Rogerson, Mark D.; Gottlieb, Michael C.; Handelsman, Mitchell M.; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

2011-01-01

Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasi-legal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior,…

A clinical decision support system for integrating tuberculosis and HIV care in Kenya: a human-centered design approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Catalani, Caricia; Green, Eric; Owiti, Philip; Keny, Aggrey; Diero, Lameck; Yeung, Ada; Israelski, Dennis; Biondich, Paul

2014-01-01

With the aim of integrating HIV and tuberculosis care in rural Kenya, a team of researchers, clinicians, and technologists used the human-centered design approach to facilitate design, development, and deployment processes of new patient-specific TB clinical decision support system for medical providers. In Kenya, approximately 1.6 million people are living with HIV and have a 20-times higher risk of dying of tuberculosis. Although tuberculosis prevention and treatment medication is widely available, proven to save lives, and prioritized by the World Health Organization, ensuring that it reaches the most vulnerable communities remains challenging. Human-centered design, used in the fields of industrial design and information technology for decades, is an approach to improving the effectiveness and impact of innovations that has been scarcely used in the health field. Using this approach, our team followed a 3-step process, involving mixed methods assessment to (1) understand the situation through the collection and analysis of site observation sessions and key informant interviews; (2) develop a new clinical decision support system through iterative prototyping, end-user engagement, and usability testing; and, (3) implement and evaluate the system across 24 clinics in rural West Kenya. Through the application of this approach, we found that human-centered design facilitated the process of digital innovation in a complex and resource-constrained context.

A clinical decision support system for integrating tuberculosis and HIV care in Kenya: a human-centered design approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caricia Catalani

Full Text Available With the aim of integrating HIV and tuberculosis care in rural Kenya, a team of researchers, clinicians, and technologists used the human-centered design approach to facilitate design, development, and deployment processes of new patient-specific TB clinical decision support system for medical providers. In Kenya, approximately 1.6 million people are living with HIV and have a 20-times higher risk of dying of tuberculosis. Although tuberculosis prevention and treatment medication is widely available, proven to save lives, and prioritized by the World Health Organization, ensuring that it reaches the most vulnerable communities remains challenging. Human-centered design, used in the fields of industrial design and information technology for decades, is an approach to improving the effectiveness and impact of innovations that has been scarcely used in the health field. Using this approach, our team followed a 3-step process, involving mixed methods assessment to (1 understand the situation through the collection and analysis of site observation sessions and key informant interviews; (2 develop a new clinical decision support system through iterative prototyping, end-user engagement, and usability testing; and, (3 implement and evaluate the system across 24 clinics in rural West Kenya. Through the application of this approach, we found that human-centered design facilitated the process of digital innovation in a complex and resource-constrained context.

Introduction of new vaccines: decision-making process in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Uddin, Jasim; Sarma, Haribondhu; Bari, Tajul I; Koehlmoos, Tracey P

2013-06-01

The understanding of the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines helps establish why vaccines are adopted or not. It also contributes to building a sustainable demand for vaccines in a country. The purpose of the study was to map and analyze the formal decision-making process in relation to the introduction of new vaccines within the context of health policy and health systems and identify the ways of making decisions to introduce new vaccines in Bangladesh. During February-April 2011, a qualitative assessment was made at the national level to evaluate the decision-making process around the adoption of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The study population included: policy-level people, programme heads or associates, and key decision-makers of the Government, private sector, non-governmental organizations, and international agencies at the national level. In total, 13 key informants were purposively selected. Data were collected by interviewing key informants and reviewing documents. Data were analyzed thematically. The findings revealed that the actors from different sectors at the policy level were involved in the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines. They included policy-makers from the ministries of health and family welfare, finance, and local government and rural development; academicians; researchers; representatives from professional associations; development partners; and members of different committees on EPI. They contributed to the introduction of new vaccines in their own capacity. The burden of disease, research findings on vaccine-preventable diseases, political issues relating to outbreaks of certain diseases, initiatives of international and local stakeholders, pressure of development partners, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) support, and financial matters were the key factors in the introduction of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The slow introduction and uptake of new vaccines is a concern

Application of Grey-TOPSIS approach to evaluate value chain performance of tea processing chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard Nyaoga

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This study develops an effective method to measure value chain performance and rank them based on qualitative criteria and to determine the ranking order of the various forms of performance under study. This approach integrates the advantage of grey systems theory and TOPSIS to evaluate and rank value chain performance. Grey-TOPSIS approach has been applied to measure and rank the value chain performance of various firms. The results indicate that the proposed model is useful to facilitate multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM problem under the environment of uncertainty and vagueness. The model also provides an appropriate ranking order based on the available alternatives. The Grey-TOPSIS approach that will be useful to the managers to use for solving the similar type of decision-making problems in their firms in the future has been discussed. Even though, the problem of choosing a suitable performance option is often addressed in practice and research, very few studies are available in the literature of Grey-TOPSIS decision models. Also, Grey-TOPSIS model application in the tea processing firms is non-existence hence this study is the very first to apply this model in evaluating value chain performance in the tea processing firms.

Decision support in vaccination policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Piso, B; Wild, C

2009-10-09

Looking across boarders reveals that the national immunization programs of various countries differ in their vaccination schedules and decisions regarding the implementation and funding of new vaccines. The aim of this review is to identify decision aids and crucial criteria for a rational decision-making process on vaccine introduction and to develop a theoretical framework for decision-making based on available literature. Systematic literature search supplemented by hand-search. We identified five published decision aids for vaccine introduction and program planning in industrialized countries. Their comparison revealed an overall similarity with some differences in the approach as well as criteria. Burden of disease and vaccine characteristics play a key role in all decision aids, but authors vary in their views on the significance of cost-effectiveness analyses. Other relevant factors that should be considered before vaccine introduction are discussed to highly differing extents. These factors include the immunization program itself as well as its conformity with other programs, its feasibility, acceptability, and equity, as well as ethical, legal and political considerations. Assuming that the most comprehensive framework possible will not provide a feasible tool for decision-makers, we suggest a stepwise procedure. Though even the best rational approach and most comprehensive evaluation is limited by remaining uncertainties, frameworks provide at least a structured approach to evaluate the various aspects of vaccine implementation decision-making. This process is essential in making consistently sound decisions and will facilitate the public's confidence in the decision and its realization.

Fuzzy Group Decision Making Approach for Ranking Work Stations Based on Physical Pressure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamed Salmanzadeh

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a Fuzzy Group Decision Making approach for ranking work stations based on physical pressure. Fuzzy group decision making approach allows experts to evaluate different ergonomic factors using linguistic terms such as very high, high, medium, low, very low, rather than precise numerical values. In this way, there is no need to measure parameters and evaluation can be easily made in a group. According to ergonomics much work contents and situations, accompanied with multiple parameters and uncertainties, fuzzy group decision making is the best way to evaluate such a chameleon of concept. A case study was down to utilize the approach and illustrate its application in ergonomic assessment and ranking the work stations based on work pressure and found that this approach provides flexibility, practicality, efficiency in making decision around ergonomics areas. The normalized defuzzification numbers which are resulted from this method are compared with result of quantitative assessment of Automotive Assembly Work Sheet auto, it’s demonstrated that the proposed method result is 10% less than Automotive Assembly Work Sheet, approximately.

A Cognition-based View of Decision Processes in Complex Social-Ecological Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathi K. Beratan

2007-06-01

Full Text Available This synthesis paper is intended to provide an overview of individual and collective decision-making processes that might serve as a theoretical foundation for a complexity-based approach to environmental policy design and natural resource management planning. Human activities are the primary drivers of change in the Earth's biosphere today, so efforts to shift the trajectory of social-ecological systems must focus on changes in individual and collective human behavior. Recent advances in understanding the biological basis of thought and memory offer insights of use in designing management and planning processes. The human brain has evolved ways of dealing with complexity and uncertainty, and is particularly attuned to social information. Changes in an individual's schemas, reflecting changes in the patterns of neural connections that are activated by particular stimuli, occur primarily through nonconsious processes in response to experiential learning during repeated exposure to novel situations, ideas, and relationships. Discourse is an important mechanism for schema modification, and thus for behavior change. Through discourse, groups of people construct a shared story - a collective model - that is useful for predicting likely outcomes of actions and events. In effect, good stories are models that filter and organize distributed knowledge about complex situations and relationships in ways that are readily absorbed by human cognitive processes. The importance of discourse supports the view that collaborative approaches are needed to effectively deal with environmental problems and natural resource management challenges. Methods derived from the field of mediation and dispute resolution can help us take advantage of the distinctly human ability to deal with complexity and uncertainty. This cognitive view of decision making supports fundamental elements of resilience management and adaptive co-management, including fostering social learning

On a triadic neurocognitive approach of decision-making to addiction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xavier Noël

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Paradoxical behaviours characterizing an addiction could be understood as the result of a combination between an attempt to cope with dominant painful feelings (e.g., anxiety with low self-esteem and sub-optimal decision-making prioritizing short-term over long-term consequences. This article focused on decision-making and emphasized that addicts’ decisions are determined by immediate outcomes because of abnormal interactions between key neural and cognitive systems: (1 an automatic, habitual and salient information processing mediated by amygdala-striatum dependent system; (2 an intention self-regulatory system forecasting the future consequences of a choice; (3 a interoceptive signals processing system which generates feeling states and in turn plays a strong influential role in decision-making and impulse control processes related to uncertainty, risk, and reward. As a whole, sub-optimal interactions such as a too strong automatic stimulus-driven actions associated with poor intentional control and a state of stress or craving are thought to result in prioritizing short-term consequences at the detriment of the necessary forecast of delayed consequences.

Characteristics of the postcounseling reproductive decision-making process: an explorative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Frets, P G; Verhage, F; Niermeijer, M F

1991-09-01

An in-depth, recorded interview of 30 couples 2-3 years after genetic counseling explored the characteristics of the postcounseling decision-making process, including the role of guilt feelings towards the proband. The study concerned couples with an affected child, sib, or spouse. Results were evaluated by 2 to 4 judges. In contrast to other studies, a generally unstructured decision-making process was found whereby guilt feelings played a significant role in more than half the couples. Guilt feelings were more predominant in couples with an affected sib than in those with an affected spouse. Lack of structure did not seem to complicate the decision-making process. Therefore, authors do not advocate promotion of structuring the decision-making process. Genetic counselors might focus on understanding counselees' feelings concerning the reproductive decision. Acceptance of apparently irrational considerations is particularly important, because these feelings indicate the influence of unconscious motives. Another important aspect of supporting counselees is to understand the role played by guilt feelings toward parents or an affected sib.

Integrated assessment of the global warming problem: A decision-analytical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

1994-12-01

The multi-disciplinary character of the global warming problem asks for an integrated assessment approach for ordering and combining the various physical, ecological, economical, and sociological results. The Netherlands initiated their own National Research Program (NRP) on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP). The first phase (NRP-1) identified the integration theme as one of five central research themes. The second phase (NRP-2) shows a growing concern for integrated assessment issues. The current two-year research project 'Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy options, which started in September 1993, comes under the integrated assessment part of the Dutch NRP. The first part of the interim report describes the search for an integrated assessment methodology. It starts with emphasizing the need for integrated assessment at a relatively high level of aggregation and from a policy point of view. The conclusion will be that a decision-analytical approach might fit the purpose of a policy-oriented integrated modeling of the global warming problem. The discussion proceeds with an account on decision analysis and its explicit incorporation and analysis of uncertainty. Then influence diagrams, a relatively recent development in decision analysis, are introduced as a useful decision-analytical approach for integrated assessment. Finally, a software environment for creating and analyzing complex influence diagram models is discussed. The second part of the interim report provides a first, provisional integrated modeling of the global warming problem, emphasizing on the illustration of the decision-analytical approach. Major problem elements are identified and an initial problem structure is developed. The problem structure is described in terms of hierarchical influence diagrams. At some places the qualitative structure is filled with quantitative data

A symptom based decision tree approach to boiling water reactor emergency operating procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knobel, R.C.

1984-01-01

This paper describes a Decision Tree approach to development of BWR Emergency Operating Procedures for use by operators during emergencies. This approach utilizes the symptom based Emergency Procedure Guidelines approved for implementation by the USNRC. Included in the paper is a discussion of the relative merits of the event based Emergency Operating Procedures currently in use at USBWR plants. The body of the paper is devoted to a discussion of the Decision Tree Approach to Emergency Operating Procedures soon to be implemented at two United States Boiling Water Reactor plants, why this approach solves many of the problems with procedures indentified in the post accident reviews of Three Mile Island procedures, and why only now is this approach both desirable and feasible. The paper discusses how nuclear plant simulators were involved in the development of the Emergency Operating Procedure decision trees, and in the verification and validation of these procedures. (orig./HP)

Visualization of decision processes using a cognitive architecture

Science.gov (United States)

Livingston, Mark A.; Murugesan, Arthi; Brock, Derek; Frost, Wende K.; Perzanowski, Dennis

2013-01-01

Cognitive architectures are computational theories of reasoning the human mind engages in as it processes facts and experiences. A cognitive architecture uses declarative and procedural knowledge to represent mental constructs that are involved in decision making. Employing a model of behavioral and perceptual constraints derived from a set of one or more scenarios, the architecture reasons about the most likely consequence(s) of a sequence of events. Reasoning of any complexity and depth involving computational processes, however, is often opaque and challenging to comprehend. Arguably, for decision makers who may need to evaluate or question the results of autonomous reasoning, it would be useful to be able to inspect the steps involved in an interactive, graphical format. When a chain of evidence and constraint-based decision points can be visualized, it becomes easier to explore both how and why a scenario of interest will likely unfold in a particular way. In initial work on a scheme for visualizing cognitively-based decision processes, we focus on generating graphical representations of models run in the Polyscheme cognitive architecture. Our visualization algorithm operates on a modified version of Polyscheme's output, which is accomplished by augmenting models with a simple set of tags. We provide example visualizations and discuss properties of our technique that pose challenges for our representation goals. We conclude with a summary of feedback solicited from domain experts and practitioners in the field of cognitive modeling.

Adult Age Differences in Dual Information Processes: Implications for the Role of Affective and Deliberative Processes in Older Adults' Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Ellen; Hess, Thomas M; Västfjäll, Daniel; Auman, Corinne

2007-03-01

Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for judgment and decision theory and important pragmatic implications for older-adult decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age. However, age-related adaptive processes, including motivated selectivity in the use of deliberative capacity, an increased focus on emotional goals, and greater experience, predict better or worse decisions for older adults depending on the situation. The aim of the current review is to examine adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes in order to understand their potential impact on judgments and decisions. We review evidence for the role of these dual processes in judgment and decision making and then review two representative life-span perspectives (based on aging-related changes to cognitive or motivational processes) on the interplay between these processes. We present relevant predictions for older-adult decisions and make note of contradictions and gaps that currently exist in the literature. Finally, we review the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making and how theories and findings regarding dual processes could be applied to decision theory and decision aiding. In particular, we focus on prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) and how prospect theory and theories regarding age differences in information processing can inform one another. © 2007 Association for Psychological Science.

Manager’s decision-making in organizations –empirical analysis of bureaucratic vs. learning approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jana Frenová

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The paper is focused on the study of manager’s decision-making with respect to the basic model of learning organization, presented by P. Senge as a system model of management. On one hand, the empirical research was conducted in connection with key dimensions of organizational learning such as: 1. system thinking, 2. personal mastery, 3. mental models, 4. team learning, 5. building shared vision and 6. dynamics causes. On the other hand, the research was connected with the analysis of the bureaucratic logic of decision-making process, characterized by non-functional stability, inflexibility, individualism, power, authority and hierarchy, centralization, vagueness, fragmentariness. The objective of the research was to analyse to what extent manager’s decision–making is based on bureaucratic tools or organizational learning in either complex problem-solving or non-problemsolving decision-making. (MANOVA, method of the repeated measure, intersubject factor – situation: 1. non problematic, 2. problematic. The conclusion of analysis is that there are significant differences in character of solving of problem situation and non-problem situation decision-making: the bureaucratic attributes of decision-making are more intensive in problematic situations while learning approach is more actual in non-problematic situations. The results of our analysis have shown that managers who apply the learning organization attributes in their decision-making. are more successful in problem-solving.

Dynamic programming approach to optimization of approximate decision rules

KAUST Repository

Amin, Talha M.; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

2013-01-01

This paper is devoted to the study of an extension of dynamic programming approach which allows sequential optimization of approximate decision rules relative to the length and coverage. We introduce an uncertainty measure R(T) which is the number

The Lisbon new international airport: The story of a decision-making process and the role of Strategic Environmental Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Partidario, Maria R.; Coutinho, Miguel

2011-01-01

This is the brief story of a decision process and the role of Strategic Environmental Assessment in government political decision-making. Following a prolonged, and agitated, decision process, initiated in the 1960s, the Government of Portugal in 2005 took the final decision to build the new international airport of Lisbon at the controversial location of Ota, 40 km north of Lisbon. The detailed project design and EIA were started. However this decision would change in 2007 due to the challenge raised by a private sponsored study that identified an alternative location for the airport at Campo de Tiro de Alcochete (CTA). This new site, which had never been considered as an option before, appeared to avoid many of the problems that caused public controversy at the Ota site. The Government, pressured by this challenge, promoted a strategic comparative assessment between the two sites. The result of this study was the choice of CTA as the preferred location. This paper discusses this radical change in the decision from a socio-political perspective. It will highlight the relevance of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), and the strategic and constructive approach it enables in mega-project decision-making.

Public Involvement in Repository Site Selection for Nuclear Waste: Towards a more Dynamic View in Decision-Making Processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kruetli, Pius; Stauffacher, Michael; Flueeler, Thomas; Scholz, Roland W. [ETH Zuerich (Switzerland). lnst. for Human-Environment Systems (HES)

2006-09-15

This paper discusses possibilities of public involvement in radioactive waste management. A general overview of the radioactive waste issue is presented referring to a proposed model of the respective decision-making process. Based on the well known participation ladder by Arnstein, we differentiate various intensities of public involvement. A matrix with public involvement and the decision-making process is introduced and three prototypical patterns are discussed. We conclude that time frame, the level of public involvement and the mission have to be considered as well as techniques and the overarching context - all in all, a systematic and dynamic approach for public involvement is needed.

Public Involvement in Repository Site Selection for Nuclear Waste: Towards a more Dynamic View in Decision-Making Processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruetli, Pius; Stauffacher, Michael; Flueeler, Thomas; Scholz, Roland W.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses possibilities of public involvement in radioactive waste management. A general overview of the radioactive waste issue is presented referring to a proposed model of the respective decision-making process. Based on the well known participation ladder by Arnstein, we differentiate various intensities of public involvement. A matrix with public involvement and the decision-making process is introduced and three prototypical patterns are discussed. We conclude that time frame, the level of public involvement and the mission have to be considered as well as techniques and the overarching context - all in all, a systematic and dynamic approach for public involvement is needed

Decision-making process of Kala Azar care: results from a qualitative study carried out in disease endemic areas of Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Adhikari, Shiva Raj; Supakankunti, Siripen; Khan, M Mahmud

2013-07-12

Analysis of consumer decision making in the health sector is a complex process of comparing feasible alternatives and evaluating the levels of satisfaction associated with the relevant options. This paper makes an attempt to understand how and why consumers make specific decisions, what motivates them to adopt a specific health intervention, and what features they find attractive in each of the options. The study used a descriptive-explanatory design to analyze the factors determining the choices of healthcare providers. Information was collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. The results suggest that the decision making related to seeking healthcare for Kala Azar (KA) treatment is a complex, interactive process. Patients and family members follow a well-defined road map for decision making. The process of decision making starts from the recognition of healthcare needs and is then modified by a number of other factors, such as indigenous knowledge, healthcare alternatives, and available resources. Household and individual characteristics also play important roles in facilitating the process of decision making. The results from the group discussions and in-depth interviews are consistent with the idea that KA patients and family members follow the rational approach of weighing the costs against the benefits of using specific types of medical care. The process of decision making related to seeking healthcare follows a complex set of steps and many of the potential factors affect the decision making in a non-linear fashion. Our analysis suggests that it is possible to derive a generalized road map of the decision-making process starting from the recognition of healthcare needs, and then modifying it to show the influences of indigenous knowledge, healthcare alternatives, and available resources.

The Production of Green Identities in Garbage Can Decision-making Processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Backer, Lise

of organisational identities to the model. Within the scientific field of business and the environment the article contributes to a new understanding of the relationship between decision-making, green organisational identities and the process of social construction of business opportunities. This relationship can...... the decision has happened. Thus, in the process of accounting for their decision the corporations are not just accounting for a particular decision, but also in a general sense contributing to socially constructing anew what can be considered a business opportunity - also for other corporations....... In this process of socially constructing new business opportunities the corporations are drawing on cultural sources not just from the field of rhetoric of economics, but also from other cultural sources within the business sector and the society as such....

An approach for using risk assessment in risk-informed decisions on plant-specific changes to the licensing basis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caruso, Mark A.; Cheok, Michael C.; Cunningham, Mark A.; Holahan, Gary M.; King, Thomas L.; Parry, Gareth W.; Ramey-Smith, Ann M.; Rubin, Mark P.; Thadani, Ashok C.

1999-01-01

This paper discusses an acceptable approach that the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff has proposed for using Probabilistic Risk Assessment in making decisions on changes to the licensing basis of a nuclear power plant. First, the overall philosophy of risk-informed decision-making, and the process framework are described. The philosophy is encapsulated in five principles, one of which states that, if the proposed change leads to an increase in core damage frequency or risk, the increases must be small and consistent with the intent of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Safety Goal Policy Statement. The second part of the paper discusses the use of PRA to demonstrate that this principle has been met. The discussion focuses on the acceptance guidelines, and on comparison of the PRA results with those guidelines. The difficulties that arise because of limitations in scope and analytical uncertainties are discussed and approaches to accommodate these difficulties in the decision-making are described

Caregiving decision making by older mothers and adult children: process and expected outcome.

Science.gov (United States)

Cicirelli, Victor G

2006-06-01

Dyadic caregiving decision making was studied in 30 mother-son and 29 mother-daughter pairs (mother's age=65-94 years) who responded to a vignette depicting a caregiving decision situation. The observed decision-making process of mother-child pairs was largely naturalistic, with few alternatives proposed and quick convergence to a decision followed by a postdecision justification; a degree of more rational decision making was seen in some pairs. Among significant findings, adult children, especially sons, dominated the decision process, doing more talking and introducing more alternatives than did their mothers, who played a more subordinate role. Mother-son pairs expected more negative outcomes and greater regrets regarding their decisions than mother-daughter pairs. Closeness of the parent-child relationship influenced the decision-making process, expected outcomes, and regrets. Copyright (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

Merging building maintainability and sustainability assessment: A multicriteria decision making approach

Science.gov (United States)

Asmone, A. S.; Chew, M. Y. L.

2018-02-01

Accurately predicting maintainability has been a challenge due to the complex nature of buildings, yet it is an important research area with a rising necessity. This paper explores the use of multicriteria decision making approach for merging maintainability and sustainability elements into building grading systems to attain long-term sustainability in the building industry. The paper conducts a systematic literature review on multicriteria decision analysis approach and builds on the existing knowledge of maintainability to achieve this. A conceptual framework is developed to bridge the gap between building operations and maintenance with green facilities management by forecasting green maintainability at the design stage.

Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Analyze Multiattribute Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Spires, Eric E.

1991-01-01

The use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in assisting researchers to analyze decisions is discussed. The AHP is compared with other decision-analysis techniques, including multiattribute utility measurement, conjoint analysis, and general linear models. Insights that AHP can provide are illustrated with data gathered in an auditing context.…

The Application of a Decision-making Approach based on Fuzzy ANP and TOPSIS for Selecting a Strategic Supplier

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rajesri Govindaraju

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Supplier selection becomes very important when used in the context of strategic partnerships because of the long-term orientation of the relationship. This paper describes the application of a decision-making approach for selecting a strategic partner (supplier. The approach starts with defining a set of criteria that fits the company’s condition. In the next steps, a combination of fuzzy-ANP and TOPSIS methods is used to determine the weight for each criterion and rank all the alternatives. The application of the approach in an Indonesian manufacturing company showed that the three factors that got the highest weight were “geographical location”, “current operating performance”, and “reliability”. Geographical location got the highest weight because it affects many other factors such as reaction to changes in demand, after-sales service, and delivery lead-time. Application of the approach helps decision-makers to gain effectiveness and efficiency in the decision-making process because it facilitates them to express their group’s collective preferences while also providing opportunities for members to express their individual preferences. Future research can be directed at combining qualitative and quantitative criteria to develop the best criteria and methods for the selection of the best suppliers based on fuzzy ANP and TOPSIS.

Defining “Adverse Environmental Impact” and Making § 316(b Decisions: A Fisheries Management Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David E. Bailey

2002-01-01

Full Text Available The electric utility industry has developed an approach for decisionmaking that includes a definition of Adverse Environmental Impact (AEI and an implementation process. The definition of AEI is based on lessons from fishery management science and analysis of the statutory term “adverse environmental impact” and is consistent with current natural resource management policy. The industry has proposed a definition focusing on “unacceptable risk to the population’s ability to sustain itself, to support reasonably anticipated commercial or recreational harvests, or to perform its normal ecological function.” This definition focuses not on counting individual fish or eggs cropped by the various uses of a water body, but on preserving populations of aquatic organisms and their functions in the aquatic community. The definition recognizes that assessment of AEI should be site-specific and requires both a biological decision and a balancing of diverse societal values. The industry believes that the definition of AEI should be implemented in a process that will maximize the overall societal benefit of the § 316(b decision by considering the facility’s physical location, design, and operation, as well as the local biology. The approach considers effects on affected fish and shellfish populations and the benefits of any necessary best technology available (BTA alternatives. This is accomplished through consideration of population impacts, which conversely allows consideration of the benefits of any necessary BTA modifications. This in turn allows selection of BTAs that will protect potentially affected populations in a cost-effective manner. The process also employs risk assessment with stakeholder participation, in accordance with EPA’s Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment. The information and tools are now available to make informed decisions about site-specific impacts that will ensure protection of aquatic ecosystems and best serve

Health-care decision-making processes in Latin America: problems and prospects for the use of economic evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Iglesias, Cynthia P; Drummond, Michael F; Rovira, Joan

2005-01-01

The use of economic evaluation studies (EE) in the decision-making process within the health-care system of nine Latin American (LA) and three European countries was investigated. The aim was to identify the opportunities, obstacles, and changes needed to facilitate the introduction of EE as a formal tool in health-care decision-making processes in LA. A comparative study was conducted based on existing literature and information provided through a questionnaire applied to decision makers in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Portugal Spain, United Kingdom, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Systematic electronic searches of HEED, NHS EED, and LILACS were conducted to identify published economic evaluation studies in LA from 1982 onward. There is relatively little evidence of the conduct and use of EE within the health care systems in LA. Electronic searches retrieved 554 records; however, only 93 were EE. In the nine LA participating countries, broad allocation of health-care resources is primarily based on political criteria, historical records, geographical areas, and specific groups of patients and diseases. Public-health provision and inclusion of services in health-insurance package are responsibilities of the Ministry of Health. Decisions regarding the purchase of medicines are primarily made through public tenders, and mainly based on differences in clinical efficacy and the price of health technologies of interest. To expedite the process of incorporating EE as a formal tool to inform decision-making processes within the health-care systems in LA countries, two main conditions need to be fulfilled. First, adequate resources and skills need to be available to conduct EE of good quality. Second, decision-making procedures need to be modified to accommodate "evidence-based" approaches such as EE.

FUZZY DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR BYZANTINE AGREEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. MURUGAN

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.

Adversarial Collaboration Decision-Making: An Overview of Social Quantum Information Processing

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

collaborative decision - making (CDM) to solve problems is an aspect of human behavior least yielding to rational predictions. To reduce the complexity of CDM...increases. Implications for C2 decision - making are discussed. Overview of research Game theory was one of the first rational approaches to the study of...Psychologist, 36, 343-356. Lawless, W.F. (2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Proceedings, Emotional and

A multicriteria decision making approach applied to improving maintenance policies in healthcare organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Carnero, María Carmen; Gómez, Andrés

2016-04-23

Healthcare organizations have far greater maintenance needs for their medical equipment than other organization, as many are used directly with patients. However, the literature on asset management in healthcare organizations is very limited. The aim of this research is to provide more rational application of maintenance policies, leading to an increase in quality of care. This article describes a multicriteria decision-making approach which integrates Markov chains with the multicriteria Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH), to facilitate the best choice of combination of maintenance policies by using the judgements of a multi-disciplinary decision group. The proposed approach takes into account the level of acceptance that a given alternative would have among professionals. It also takes into account criteria related to cost, quality of care and impact of care cover. This multicriteria approach is applied to four dialysis subsystems: patients infected with hepatitis C, infected with hepatitis B, acute and chronic; in all cases, the maintenance strategy obtained consists of applying corrective and preventive maintenance plus two reserve machines. The added value in decision-making practices from this research comes from: (i) integrating the use of Markov chains to obtain the alternatives to be assessed by a multicriteria methodology; (ii) proposing the use of MACBETH to make rational decisions on asset management in healthcare organizations; (iii) applying the multicriteria approach to select a set or combination of maintenance policies in four dialysis subsystems of a health care organization. In the multicriteria decision making approach proposed, economic criteria have been used, related to the quality of care which is desired for patients (availability), and the acceptance that each alternative would have considering the maintenance and healthcare resources which exist in the organization, with the inclusion of a

A quantitative approach to choose among multiple mutually exclusive decisions: comparative expected utility theory

OpenAIRE

Zhu, Pengyu

2018-01-01

Mutually exclusive decisions have been studied for decades. Many well-known decision theories have been defined to help people either to make rational decisions or to interpret people's behaviors, such as expected utility theory, regret theory, prospect theory, and so on. The paper argues that none of these decision theories are designed to provide practical, normative and quantitative approaches for multiple mutually exclusive decisions. Different decision-makers should naturally make differ...

Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Kumar, Ambuj; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Dual Processing Theories (DPT) assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive) and type 2 (deliberative). Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM) to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT) and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Athanasios Tsalatsanis

Full Text Available Dual Processing Theories (DPT assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive and type 2 (deliberative. Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

Resilience thinking and a decision-analytic approach to conservation: strange bedfellows or essential partners?

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Fred A.; Williams, Byron K.; Nichols, James D.

2013-01-01

There has been some tendency to view decision science and resilience theory as opposing approaches, or at least as contending perspectives, for natural resource management. Resilience proponents have been especially critical of optimization in decision science, at least for those cases where it is focused on the aggressive pursuit of efficiency. In general, optimization of resource systems is held to reduce spatial, temporal, or organizational heterogeneity that would otherwise limit efficiency, leading to homogenization of a system and making it less able to cope with unexpected changes or disturbances. For their part, decision analysts have been critical of resilience proponents for not providing much practical advice to decision makers. We believe a key source of tension between resilience thinking and application of decision science is the pursuit of efficiency in the latter (i.e., choosing the “best” management action or strategy option to maximize productivity of one or few resource components), vs. a desire in the former to keep options open (i.e., maintaining and enhancing diversity). It seems obvious, however, that with managed natural systems, there must be a principle by which to guide decision making, which at a minimumallows for a comparison of projected outcomes associated with decision alternatives. This is true even if the primary concern of decision making is the preservation of system resilience. We describe how a careful framing of conservation problems, especially in terms of management objectives and predictive models, can help reduce the purported tension between resiliencethinking and decision analysis. In particular, objective setting in conservation problems needs to be more attuned to the dynamics of ecological systems and to the possibility of deep uncertainties that underlie the risk of unintended, if not irreversible, outcomes. Resilience thinking also leads to the suggestion that model development should focus more on process

Resilience Thinking and a Decision-Analytic Approach to Conservation: Strange Bedfellows or Essential Partners?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fred A. Johnson

2013-06-01

Full Text Available There has been some tendency to view decision science and resilience theory as opposing approaches, or at least as contending perspectives, for natural resource management. Resilience proponents have been especially critical of optimization in decision science, at least for those cases where it is focused on the aggressive pursuit of efficiency. In general, optimization of resource systems is held to reduce spatial, temporal, or organizational heterogeneity that would otherwise limit efficiency, leading to homogenization of a system and making it less able to cope with unexpected changes or disturbances. For their part, decision analysts have been critical of resilience proponents for not providing much practical advice to decision makers. We believe a key source of tension between resilience thinking and application of decision science is the pursuit of efficiency in the latter (i.e., choosing the "best" management action or strategy option to maximize productivity of one or few resource components, vs. a desire in the former to keep options open (i.e., maintaining and enhancing diversity. It seems obvious, however, that with managed natural systems, there must be a principle by which to guide decision making, which at a minimum allows for a comparison of projected outcomes associated with decision alternatives. This is true even if the primary concern of decision making is the preservation of system resilience. We describe how a careful framing of conservation problems, especially in terms of management objectives and predictive models, can help reduce the purported tension between resilience thinking and decision analysis. In particular, objective setting in conservation problems needs to be more attuned to the dynamics of ecological systems and to the possibility of deep uncertainties that underlie the risk of unintended, if not irreversible, outcomes. Resilience thinking also leads to the suggestion that model development should focus more

Commercial Flight Crew Decision-Making during Low-Visibility Approach Operations Using Fused Synthetic/Enhanced Vision Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Lynda J.; Bailey, Randall E.; Prinzel, Lawrence J., III

2007-01-01

NASA is investigating revolutionary crew-vehicle interface technologies that strive to proactively overcome aircraft safety barriers that would otherwise constrain the full realization of the next-generation air transportation system. A fixed-based piloted simulation experiment was conducted to evaluate the complementary use of Synthetic and Enhanced Vision technologies. Specific focus was placed on new techniques for integration and/or fusion of Enhanced and Synthetic Vision and its impact within a two-crew flight deck on the crew's decision-making process during low-visibility approach and landing operations. Overall, the experimental data showed that significant improvements in situation awareness, without concomitant increases in workload and display clutter, could be provided by the integration and/or fusion of synthetic and enhanced vision technologies for the pilot-flying and the pilot-not-flying. During non-normal operations, the ability of the crew to handle substantial navigational errors and runway incursions were neither improved nor adversely impacted by the display concepts. The addition of Enhanced Vision may not, unto itself, provide an improvement in runway incursion detection without being specifically tailored for this application. Existing enhanced vision system procedures were effectively used in the crew decision-making process during approach and missed approach operations but having to forcibly transition from an excellent FLIR image to natural vision by 100 ft above field level was awkward for the pilot-flying.

Six Sigma Project Selection Using Fuzzy TOPSIS Decision Making Approach

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Rajeev Rathi

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Six Sigma is considered as a logical business strategy that attempts to identify and eliminate the defects or failures for improving the quality of product and processes. A decision on project selection in Six Sigma is always very critical; it plays a key role in successful implementation of Six Sigma. Selection of a right Six Sigma project is essentially important for an automotive company because it greatly influences the manufacturing costs. This paper discusses an approach for right Six Sigma project selection at an automotive industry using fuzzy logic based TOPSIS method. The fuzzy TOPSIS is a well recognized tool to undertake the fuzziness of the data involved in choosing the right preferences. In this context, evaluation criteria have been designed for selection of best alternative. The weights of evaluation criteria are calculated by using the MDL (modified digital logic method and final ranking is calculated through priority index obtained by using fuzzy TOPSIS method. In the selected case study, this approach has rightly helped to identify the right project for implementing Six Sigma for achieving improvement in productivity.

An expanded framework to define and measure shared decision-making in dialogue: A 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Callon, Wynne; Beach, Mary Catherine; Links, Anne R; Wasserman, Carly; Boss, Emily F

2018-03-11

We aimed to develop a comprehensive, descriptive framework to measure shared decision making (SDM) in clinical encounters. We combined a top-down (theoretical) approach with a bottom-up approach based on audio-recorded dialogue to identify all communication processes related to decision making. We coded 55 pediatric otolaryngology visits using the framework and report interrater reliability. We identified 14 clinician behaviors and 5 patient behaviors that have not been previously described, and developed a new SDM framework that is descriptive (what does happen) rather than normative (what should happen). Through the bottom-up approach we identified three broad domains not present in other SDM frameworks: socioemotional support, understandability of clinician dialogue, and recommendation-giving. We also specify the ways in which decision-making roles are assumed implicitly rather than discussed explicitly. Interrater reliability was >75% for 92% of the coded behaviors. This SDM framework allows for a more expansive understanding and analysis of how decision making takes place in clinical encounters, including new domains and behaviors not present in existing measures. We hope that this new framework will bring attention to a broader conception of SDM and allow researchers to further explore the new domains and behaviors identified. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

[The decision making process of ESRD families during the dialysis withdrawal period].

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Tsai-Rung

2011-08-01

Hemodialysis is a financial burden to the state and families and the cause of much suffering in patients. It is a life prolonging therapy and death-delaying treatment. When the burdens of therapy substantially outweigh its benefits, withdrawal from dialysis is an appropriate option. However, considering the ethical and legal concerns of doing such is something families must face. There has been little research and little understanding of the process of decision-making within families in Taiwan. The process is full of conflicts, worries, guilt, shame, and lack of consensus. Effective communication with the medical team to resolve the conflict and describe the prognosis is necessary in order to reach a consensus and move toward palliative care. The article uses a case report and discusses the process. Finally, the author suggests an approach to making the situation better in the future.

Decisions an engineering and management perspective

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