WorldWideScience

Sample records for decision models constructing

  1. Knowledge-Based Decision Model Construction for Dynamic Interpretation Tasks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wellman, Michael

    1997-01-01

    ...) is highly variable, precluding specification of a fixed model in advance. The project yielded technical results in four areas of reasoning and decision making under uncertainty involving model construction: (1...

  2. Accelerated bridge construction (ABC) decision making and economic modeling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    In this FHWA-sponsored pool funded study, a set of decision making tools, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. This tool set is prepared for transportation specialists and decision-makers to determine if ABC is more effective ...

  3. Development of OLI+S Entry Decision Model for Construction Firms in International Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Che Maznah Binti Mat Isa

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to provide a holistic approach to address how construction firms make decisions covering all three domains (location, timing and mode across country, market, firm and project factors within the Ownership, Locational and Internalisation plus Specialty (OLI+S paradigm. Questionnaires were administered to 62 project managers based on a sampling frame provided by the Construction Industry Development Board Malaysia. The findings provide empirical and theoretical insights on how the OLI+S model addresses firms’ entry decisions to penetrate international markets. It suggests that the ownership-entry decision factors focus on firms’ internal transferable advantages. The locational-entry decision factors emphasise attractiveness of certain locations where firms decided to invest and operate. The internalisation– entry decision factors emphasise the extent to which firms were able to manipulate their internal competitive assets (firm’s resources and capabilities. Finally, the specialty-entry decision factors emphasise on firms’ competency in project management and specialist expertise to handle complex projects based on their previous project experience. An example of construction firms’ unique characteristics, namely, specialty advantages based on the original Dunning’s OLI eclectic paradigm has been adopted. The established OLI+S entry decision model could be investigated to further refine other related internationalisation theory.

  4. Quantitative Decision Making Model for Carbon Reduction in Road Construction Projects Using Green Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woosik Jang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Numerous countries have established policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and have suggested goals pertaining to these reductions. To reach the target reduction amounts, studies on the reduction of carbon emissions have been conducted with regard to all stages and processes in construction projects. According to a study on carbon emissions, the carbon emissions generated during the construction stage of road projects account for approximately 76 to 86% of the total carbon emissions, far exceeding the other stages, such as maintenance or demolition. Therefore, this study aims to develop a quantitative decision making model that supports the application of green technologies (GTs to reduce carbon emissions during the construction stage of road construction projects. First, the authors selected environmental soundness, economic feasibility and constructability as the key assessment indices for evaluating 20 GTs. Second, a fuzzy set/qualitative comparative analysis (FS/QCA was used to establish an objective decision-making model for the assessment of both the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the key indices. To support the developed model, an expert survey was performed to assess the applicability of each GT from a practical perspective, which was verified with a case study using two additional GTs. The proposed model is expected to support practitioners in the application of suitable GTs to road projects and reduce carbon emissions, resulting in better decision making during road construction projects.

  5. Decision support model for selecting and evaluating suppliers in the construction industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Schramm

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A structured evaluation of the construction industry's suppliers, considering aspects which make their quality and credibility evident, can be a strategic tool to manage this specific supply chain. This study proposes a multi-criteria decision model for suppliers' selection from the construction industry, as well as an efficient evaluation procedure for the selected suppliers. The model is based on SMARTER (Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique Exploiting Ranking method and its main contribution is a new approach to structure the process of suppliers' selection, establishing explicit strategic policies on which the company management system relied to make the suppliers selection. This model was applied to a Civil Construction Company in Brazil and the main results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model. This study allowed the development of an approach to Construction Industry which was able to provide a better relationship among its managers, suppliers and partners.

  6. Constructing food choice decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobal, Jeffery; Bisogni, Carole A

    2009-12-01

    Food choice decisions are frequent, multifaceted, situational, dynamic, and complex and lead to food behaviors where people acquire, prepare, serve, give away, store, eat, and clean up. Many disciplines and fields examine decision making. Several classes of theories are applicable to food decision making, including social behavior, social facts, and social definition perspectives. Each offers some insights but also makes limiting assumptions that prevent fully explaining food choice decisions. We used constructionist social definition perspectives to inductively develop a food choice process model that organizes a broad scope of factors and dynamics involved in food behaviors. This food choice process model includes (1) life course events and experiences that establish a food choice trajectory through transitions, turning points, timing, and contexts; (2) influences on food choices that include cultural ideals, personal factors, resources, social factors, and present contexts; and (3) a personal system that develops food choice values, negotiates and balances values, classifies foods and situations, and forms/revises food choice strategies, scripts, and routines. The parts of the model dynamically interact to make food choice decisions leading to food behaviors. No single theory can fully explain decision making in food behavior. Multiple perspectives are needed, including constructionist thinking.

  7. A Decision Model Assessing the Owner and Contractor’s Conflict Behaviors in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the effects of the contractor’s conflict behaviors on the project benefit, a decision model between the owner and contractor’s conflict behaviors in construction projects was constructed using the principal-agent theory and game theory. The model was analyzed under nonconflicting and conflicting conditions, and a numerical simulation and example analysis were proposed to verify the constructed model’s conclusion. The results showed that the effort levels of the owner and contractor not only relate to benefit-sharing coefficient and effort outcome coefficient but also depend on the contractor’s ability of converting the conflict into benefit and the loss caused by conflict behaviors. A higher ability of converting conflicts into benefits and lower levels of the loss caused by conflict behaviors for the contractor lead to lower levels of the net benefit of the owner, conversely higher levels of the net benefit of the contractor. Balancing the contractor’s ability of converting conflicts into benefits and the loss caused by conflict behaviors lead to a more reasonable risk allocation between the owner and contractor, improving the effort level and net benefit. To add value to the construction project, the owner should establish an impartial and reasonable benefit-sharing mechanism, optimize the owner and contractor’s resource arrangement, maximize the positive effect of conflict on project benefits, and avoid the negative effect of conflict. Few studies to date have investigated the effects of conflict behaviors on project benefits in terms of modeling and simulation in construction projects. As such, this study bridges this gap and contributes significant theoretical and practical insights about managing conflict behaviors in an interorganizational context, thus enhancing performance in construction projects.

  8. Towards a Theoretical Construct for Modelling Smallholders’ Forestland-Use Decisions: What Can We Learn from Agriculture and Forest Economics?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahlil Baker

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Academic research on smallholders’ forestland-use decisions is regularly addressed in different streams of literature using different theoretical constructs that are independently incomplete. In this article, we propose a theoretical construct for modelling smallholders’ forestland-use decisions intended to serve in the guidance and operationalization of future models for quantitative analysis. Our construct is inspired by the sub-disciplines of forestry and agricultural economics with a crosscutting theme of how transaction costs drive separability between consumption and production decisions. Our results help explain why exogenous variables proposed in the existing literature are insufficient at explaining smallholders’ forestland-use decisions, and provide theoretical context for endogenizing characteristics of the household, farm and landscape. Smallholders’ forestland-use decisions are best understood in an agricultural context of competing uses for household assets and interdependent consumption and production decisions. Forest production strategies range from natural regeneration to intensive management of the forest resource to co-jointly produce market and non-market values. Due to transaction costs, decision prices are best represented by their shadow as opposed to market prices. Shadow prices are shaped by endogenous smallholder-specific preferences for leisure, non-market values, time, risk, and uncertainty. Our proposed construct is intended to provide a theoretical basis to assist modellers in the selection of variables for quantitative analysis.

  9. A Market Equilibrium Supply Chain Model for Supporting Self-Manufacturing or Outsourcing Decisions in Prefabricated Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhu Han

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Prefabricated construction is a sustainable alternative to traditional on-site construction methods. However, many challenges still exist in the prefabricated construction process. For example, self-manufacturing or outsourcing decisions are vital to the industrial structure and organization of the prefabricated construction industry, and the company’s production and operation decision-making. This paper considers a prefabricated construction supply chain, which is composed of one upstream component manufacturing company and two downstream contractors. The large contractor can get the precast component through self-manufacturing or outsourcing, while the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME contractor can only buy components from the component manufacturer. A comprehensive game model (Cournot-Stackelberg model under different decisions, that is, component self-manufacturing or outsourcing, was established. By solving the profit functions of different companies in the prefabricated construction supply chain, the equilibrium solutions of output, price and profit can be achieved. These solutions of equilibrium indicate the optimal decision on the production and operation, and the profit’s boundary conditions. After assuming relevant parameters, the profit levels of the companies in the supply chain are analyzed via a dynamic simulation in the changing process of prefabricated construction market size under different behavioral decisions. The conclusions are as follows: (1 the profit levels of all supply chain enterprises and the whole supply chain are increasing with an increase of market size; (2 the downstream contractors and the whole supply chain have a higher profit level under the component self-manufacturing decision, however, on the contrary, the upstream component suppliers get a higher profit level under the component outsourcing decision; (3 the equilibrium output of the SME contractor is reduced under the outsourcing decision of

  10. High-rise construction in the Russian economy: modeling of management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miroshnikova, Tatyana; Taskaeva, Natalia

    2018-03-01

    The growth in the building industry, particularly in residential high-rise construction, is having considerable influence on the country's economic development. The scientific hypothesis of the research is that the execution of town-planning programs of high-rise construction depends to a large extent on the management of the provision of material resources for the construction of a millionth city, while the balance model is the most important tool for establishing and determining the ratio between supply and demand for material resources. In order to improve the efficiency of high-rise building management, it is proposed to develop a methodology for managing the provision of construction of large cities with material resources.

  11. Algorithms for Decision Tree Construction

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    The study of algorithms for decision tree construction was initiated in 1960s. The first algorithms are based on the separation heuristic [13, 31] that at each step tries dividing the set of objects as evenly as possible. Later Garey and Graham [28

  12. Modelling Constructs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2009-01-01

    , these notations have been extended in order to increase expressiveness and to be more competitive. This resulted in an increasing number of notations and formalisms for modelling business processes and in an increase of the different modelling constructs provided by modelling notations, which makes it difficult......There are many different notations and formalisms for modelling business processes and workflows. These notations and formalisms have been introduced with different purposes and objectives. Later, influenced by other notations, comparisons with other tools, or by standardization efforts...... to compare modelling notations and to make transformations between them. One of the reasons is that, in each notation, the new concepts are introduced in a different way by extending the already existing constructs. In this chapter, we go the opposite direction: We show that it is possible to add most...

  13. Algorithms for Decision Tree Construction

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    The study of algorithms for decision tree construction was initiated in 1960s. The first algorithms are based on the separation heuristic [13, 31] that at each step tries dividing the set of objects as evenly as possible. Later Garey and Graham [28] showed that such algorithm may construct decision trees whose average depth is arbitrarily far from the minimum. Hyafil and Rivest in [35] proved NP-hardness of DT problem that is constructing a tree with the minimum average depth for a diagnostic problem over 2-valued information system and uniform probability distribution. Cox et al. in [22] showed that for a two-class problem over information system, even finding the root node attribute for an optimal tree is an NP-hard problem. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011.

  14. A Market Equilibrium Supply Chain Model for Supporting Self-Manufacturing or Outsourcing Decisions in Prefabricated Construction

    OpenAIRE

    Yanhu Han; Miroslaw J. Skibniewski; Lufan Wang

    2017-01-01

    Prefabricated construction is a sustainable alternative to traditional on-site construction methods. However, many challenges still exist in the prefabricated construction process. For example, self-manufacturing or outsourcing decisions are vital to the industrial structure and organization of the prefabricated construction industry, and the company’s production and operation decision-making. This paper considers a prefabricated construction supply chain, which is composed of one upstream co...

  15. Modeling the Construct of an Expert Evidence-Adaptive Knowledge Base for a Pressure Injury Clinical Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peck Chui Betty Khong

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The selection of appropriate wound products for the treatment of pressure injuries is paramount in promoting wound healing. However, nurses find it difficult to decide on the most optimal wound product(s due to limited live experiences in managing pressure injuries resulting from successfully implemented pressure injury prevention programs. The challenges of effective decision-making in wound treatments by nurses at the point of care are compounded by the yearly release of wide arrays of newly researched wound products into the consumer market. A clinical decision support system for pressure injury (PI-CDSS was built to facilitate effective decision-making and selection of optimal wound treatments. This paper describes the development of PI-CDSS with an expert knowledge base using an interactive development environment, Blaze Advisor. A conceptual framework using decision-making and decision theory, knowledge representation, and process modelling guided the construct of the PI-CDSS. This expert system has incorporated the practical and relevant decision knowledge of wound experts in assessment and wound treatments in its algorithm. The construct of the PI-CDSS is adaptive, with scalable capabilities for expansion to include other CDSSs and interoperability to interface with other existing clinical and administrative systems. The algorithm was formatively evaluated and tested for usability. The treatment modalities generated after using patient-specific assessment data were found to be consistent with the treatment plan(s proposed by the wound experts. The overall agreement exceeded 90% between the wound experts and the generated treatment modalities for the choice of wound products, instructions, and alerts. The PI-CDSS serves as a just-in-time wound treatment protocol with suggested clinical actions for nurses, based on the best evidence available.

  16. A Framework For A Decision Support Model For Supply Chain Management In The Construction Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Perdomo-Rivera, Jose Luis

    2004-01-01

    Materials are one of the areas that require special attention while creating a project's master plan as well as during the daily construction progress. The absence of materials when needed is one of the main causes of loss of productivity at a jobsite. Inefficient materials management can lead to an increase of 50% in work hours. As a result, a detailed plan for the materials management of each construction project is necessary. The critical role of materials management in the su...

  17. Interactive use of simulation models for collaborative knowledge construction: the case of flood policy decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leskens, Anne

    2015-01-01

    There is an increasing use of interactive flood simulation models in work sessions with practitioners, which is supposed to be more effective than feeding static model results from conventional simulation models into the decision-making process. These interactive simulation models rely on fast and

  18. Proposing a model for safety risk assessment in the construction industry using gray multi-criterion decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Abootorabi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Statistical Report of the Social Security Organization indicate that among the various industries, the construction industry has the highest number of work-related accidents so that in addition to frequency, it has high intensity, as well. On the other hand, a large number of human resources are working in this whish shows they necessity for paying special attention to these workers. Therefore, risk assessment of the safety in the construction industry is an effective step in this regard. In this study, a method for ranking safety risks in conditions of low number of samples and uncertainty is presented, using gray multi-criterion decision-making. .Material and Method: In this study, we first identified the factors affecting the occurrence of hazards in the construction industry. Then, appropriate for ranking the risks were determined and the problem was defined as a multi-criterion decision-making. In order to weight the criteria and to evaluate alternatives based on each criterion, gray numbers were used. In the last stage, the problem was solved using the gray possibility degree. .Results: The results show that the method of gray multi-criterion decision-making is an effective method for ranking risks in situations of low samples compared with other methods of MCDM. .Conclusion: The proposed method is preferred to fuzzy methods and statistics in uncertain and low sample size, due to simple calculations and no need to define the membership function.

  19. Decision theory applied to radioactive repository construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heilbron Filho, Paulo Fernando Lavalle; Pontedeiro, Elizabeth May

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this article is to present, through the presentation of an example, the applicability of the decision theory on the selection and construction of a repository for low and intermediate radioactive waste. (author)

  20. Decision problems in management of construction projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranko, E.

    2017-10-01

    In a construction business, one must oftentimes make decisions during all stages of a building process, from planning a new construction project through its execution to the stage of using a ready structure. As a rule, the decision making process is made more complicated due to certain conditions specific for civil engineering. With such diverse decision situations, it is recommended to apply various decision making support methods. Both, literature and hands-on experience suggest several methods based on analytical and computational procedures, some less and some more complex. This article presents the methods which can be helpful in supporting decision making processes in the management of civil engineering projects. These are multi-criteria methods, such as MCE, AHP or indicator methods. Because the methods have different advantages and disadvantages, whereas decision situations have their own specific nature, a brief summary of the methods alongside some recommendations regarding their practical applications has been given at the end of the paper. The main aim of this article is to review the methods of decision support and their analysis for possible use in the construction industry.

  1. A Conceptual Framework for Procurement Decision Making Model to Optimize Supplier Selection: The Case of Malaysian Construction Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuan, Ngam Min; Thiruchelvam, Sivadass; Nasharuddin Mustapha, Kamal; Che Muda, Zakaria; Mat Husin, Norhayati; Yong, Lee Choon; Ghazali, Azrul; Ezanee Rusli, Mohd; Itam, Zarina Binti; Beddu, Salmia; Liyana Mohd Kamal, Nur

    2016-03-01

    This paper intends to fathom the current state of procurement system in Malaysia specifically in the construction industry in the aspect of supplier selection. This paper propose a comprehensive study on the supplier selection metrics for infrastructure building, weight the importance of each metrics assigned and to find the relationship between the metrics among initiators, decision makers, buyers and users. With the metrics hierarchy of criteria importance, a supplier selection process can be defined, repeated and audited with lesser complications or difficulties. This will help the field of procurement to improve as this research is able to develop and redefine policies and procedures that have been set in supplier selection. Developing this systematic process will enable optimization of supplier selection and thus increasing the value for every stakeholders as the process of selection is greatly simplified. With a new redefined policy and procedure, it does not only increase the company’s effectiveness and profit, but also make it available for the company to reach greater heights in the advancement of procurement in Malaysia.

  2. Rule-based decision making model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, Miki

    1998-01-01

    A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

  3. DECISION SUPPORT CONCEPT TO MANAGEMENT OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS - PROBLEM OF CONSTRUCTION SITE SELECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikša Jajac

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present Decision Support Concept (DSC for management of construction projects. Focus of our research is in application of multicritera methods (MCM to decision making in planning phase of construction projects (related to the problem of construction sites selection. The problem is identified as a significant one from many different aspects such as economic aspect, civil engineering aspect, etc. what indicates the necessity for evaluation of multiple sites by several different criteria. Therefore, DSC for construction site selection based on PROMETHEE method is designed. In order to define the appropriate criteria, their weights and preference functions for the concept, three groups of stakeholders are involved (investors, construction experts and experts for real estate market in its design. AHP method has been used for determination of criteria weights. The model has been tested on the problem of site selection for construction of residential-commercial building in four largest cities in Croatia.

  4. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... (decision-making, problem-solving, listening, verbal competency, motivation, persuasion, ... Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project management, ...

  5. Decision-making on reverse logistics in the construction industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanwadee Chinda

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available With the growing competition, many construction organizations attempt to improve their productivity, quality, and efficiency. Construction waste management, by means of reverse logistics, becomes a key issue to improve the productivity, and raise the company’s green image. In this study, four reverse logistics methods-direct reuse, remanufacturing, recycling, and landfill-are considered to manage construction and demolition (C&D waste. Two factors (economic and site-specific with their 15 sub-factors affecting the decisions to implement the reverse logistics are examined. The hierarchy model of reverse logistics decisions, developed through the analytic hierarchy process, reveal the importance of the economic factor over the site-specific factor. It is suggested that the transportation cost, the processing cost, the specific sorting technology, and the limited project time must be first considered before making decisions on reverse logistics plans. The construction company can utilize the developed hierarchy model to decide on the most appropriate reverse logistics plan to achieve the best benefits.

  6. Construction and Use of a ‘Green Growth’ Tourism Decision Support System: A Multi-Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G Michael McGrath

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available For design, development, implementation and use of an information system (IS to constitute a valid research activity, the system should support the solution of a non-trivial and important problem and it should be original, drawing on existing theories and knowledge. The design of one such system is described in this paper: specifically, a decision support system (DSS designed to support the development of ‘Green Growth’ (GG strategies for Travelism (Travel & Tourism destinations. A sound GG strategy is important: first, because tourism is a major contributor to the global economy - particularly for developing and island states; second because it represents some 5% of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions and these are increasing faster than the global norm; and third because the environment is an essential element of destination attractiveness. Thus, the problem domain is certainly non-trivial and important. It is further argued that the design of the DSS artefact described is original and novel in the sense that: i it supports the entire GG strategy development process (which is actually cyclical; ii it allows for the sharing of data, functionality and knowledge between different DSS applications and different strategy development exercises in a seamless, integrated manner; and iii it will be deployed in a global community based program in 2016. System design draws heavily on previous IS, information management and software engineering research; particularly with regard to use of abstraction and interfaces in support of component sharing and reuse.

  7. Learning to Make Decisions Through Constructive Controversy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tjosvold, Dean

    Students must make decisions about their lifestyle, future careers, academic pursuits, and classroom and school issues. Learning to make effective decisions for themselves and for society is an important aspect of competence. They can learn decision making through interacting and solving problems with others. A central ingredient for successful…

  8. Construction of α-decision trees for tables with many-valued decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

    2011-01-01

    The paper is devoted to the study of greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision trees (α-decision trees). This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bound on the number of algorithm steps, and bound on the algorithm accuracy relative to the depth of decision trees. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  9. Greedy algorithms for construction of approximate tests for decision tables with many-valued decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

    2012-01-01

    The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate tests (super-reducts) This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions For a given

  10. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  11. Greedy algorithms for construction of approximate tests for decision tables with many-valued decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad

    2012-12-14

    The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate tests (super-reducts) This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row We consider bounds on the precision of this algorithm relative to the cardinality of tests.

  12. Comparison of greedy algorithms for α-decision tree construction

    KAUST Repository

    Alkhalid, Abdulaziz; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail

    2011-01-01

    A comparison among different heuristics that are used by greedy algorithms which constructs approximate decision trees (α-decision trees) is presented. The comparison is conducted using decision tables based on 24 data sets from UCI Machine Learning Repository [2]. Complexity of decision trees is estimated relative to several cost functions: depth, average depth, number of nodes, number of nonterminal nodes, and number of terminal nodes. Costs of trees built by greedy algorithms are compared with minimum costs calculated by an algorithm based on dynamic programming. The results of experiments assign to each cost function a set of potentially good heuristics that minimize it. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  13. The construction of a decision tool to analyse local demand and local supply for GP care using a synthetic estimation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf-Ruizendaal, Willemijn A; de Bakker, Dinny H

    2013-10-27

    This study addresses the growing academic and policy interest in the appropriate provision of local healthcare services to the healthcare needs of local populations to increase health status and decrease healthcare costs. However, for most local areas information on the demand for primary care and supply is missing. The research goal is to examine the construction of a decision tool which enables healthcare planners to analyse local supply and demand in order to arrive at a better match. National sample-based medical record data of general practitioners (GPs) were used to predict the local demand for GP care based on local populations using a synthetic estimation technique. Next, the surplus or deficit in local GP supply were calculated using the national GP registry. Subsequently, a dynamic internet tool was built to present demand, supply and the confrontation between supply and demand regarding GP care for local areas and their surroundings in the Netherlands. Regression analysis showed a significant relationship between sociodemographic predictors of postcode areas and GP consultation time (F [14, 269,467] = 2,852.24; P 1,000 inhabitants in the Netherlands covering 97% of the total population. Confronting these estimated demand figures with the actual GP supply resulted in the average GP workload and the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GP too much/too few for local areas to cover the demand for GP care. An estimated shortage of one FTE GP or more was prevalent in about 19% of the postcode areas with >1,000 inhabitants if the surrounding postcode areas were taken into consideration. Underserved areas were mainly found in rural regions. The constructed decision tool is freely accessible on the Internet and can be used as a starting point in the discussion on primary care service provision in local communities and it can make a considerable contribution to a primary care system which provides care when and where people need it.

  14. Decisive management in selecting locations for development of construction projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranko, E.; Pawłowicz, J. A.

    2017-08-01

    The location of an investment project is one of the most important decisions in the construction and land development business. The shape of a new building and aspects of its future use depend on making a good choice of a land plot where it will be constructed. There are many characteristics involved descriptions of land available for development. On the one hand, different buildings (with different envisaged use) fit differently to a given location. Residential homes, for example, require a location which will ensure a peaceful lifestyle, with places for walks and recreation, situated in a relatively quite setting. On the other hand, close proximity to schools, shops or a health clinic is another important consideration. Industrial buildings should be localized so as not to be a nuisance to others, and their location should facilitate efficient transport of raw materials and ready products. Yet other requirements are defined for public buildings. It is therefore evident that the characteristics included in an evaluation of the location of a planned building can be highly diverse and their diversity makes the evaluation difficult. Selection of a location can be supported by a variety of methods. For instance, an evaluation can rely on assigning points which indicate the fulfillment of certain criteria. This approach generates a complex evaluation in the form of tables and maps of usefulness. Another possibility is to make an assessment of the criteria that a given land parcels should satisfy in order to develop a specific type of a building. Having combined these two sets of information, we can create a system or a model for the management of land resources, which will easily help to support decision making processes pertaining to the choice of a location. This article shows a model approach for a specific building.

  15. 'Misclassification error' greedy heuristic to construct decision trees for inconsistent decision tables

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

    2014-01-01

    A greedy algorithm has been presented in this paper to construct decision trees for three different approaches (many-valued decision, most common decision, and generalized decision) in order to handle the inconsistency of multiple decisions in a decision table. In this algorithm, a greedy heuristic ‘misclassification error’ is used which performs faster, and for some cost function, results are better than ‘number of boundary subtables’ heuristic in literature. Therefore, it can be used in the case of larger data sets and does not require huge amount of memory. Experimental results of depth, average depth and number of nodes of decision trees constructed by this algorithm are compared in the framework of each of the three approaches.

  16. Greedy Algorithm for the Construction of Approximate Decision Rules for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

    2016-01-01

    The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision rules. This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bounds on the precision of this algorithm relative to the length of rules. To illustrate proposed approach we study a problem of recognition of labels of points in the plain. This paper contains also results of experiments with modified decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository.

  17. Greedy Algorithm for the Construction of Approximate Decision Rules for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad

    2016-10-20

    The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision rules. This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bounds on the precision of this algorithm relative to the length of rules. To illustrate proposed approach we study a problem of recognition of labels of points in the plain. This paper contains also results of experiments with modified decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository.

  18. Established and Emerging Decision Constructs – A Taxonomic Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Barry

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available One might assume information systems (IS are developed so systems enhance the user experience and facilitate a satisfying, productive interaction. From prior research, the authors established this assumption was not safe and certain design features amongst some online retailers were atypical of ‘good’ design elsewhere. It was apparent the transactional process was being used to present consumers with optional extras (and other decisions that not only slowed the process down, but also stressed and agitated users. The research identified some new and unusual decision constructs such as the ‘must-opt’. The objective of the research presented herein is two-fold: to make an incremental contribution in first theorising and then identifying and categorising into a taxonomy some new decision constructs alongside established ones encountered throughout on-line Business-to-Consumer (B2C transactional processes followed by a preliminary study confirming their existence and examining their clarity.

  19. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  20. A construction process model for implementing constructability in construction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langkemper, J.; Al-Jibouri, S.; Reymen, I.M.M.J.; Maas, G.J.; Gassel, van F.

    2003-01-01

    In construction, failure of design professionals to consider how a builder will implement the design can result in scheduling problems, cost escalation, delays and disputes during the construction process. The integration of construction knowledge and experience during planning and design is termed

  1. Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaMar, Michelle M

    2018-03-01

    Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

  2. Uncertainty modeling and decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yager, Ronald R.

    2004-01-01

    We first formulate the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The importance of the representation of our knowledge about the uncertainty in formulating a decision process is pointed out. We begin with a brief discussion of the case of probabilistic uncertainty. Next, in considerable detail, we discuss the case of decision making under ignorance. For this case the fundamental role of the attitude of the decision maker is noted and its subjective nature is emphasized. Next the case in which a Dempster-Shafer belief structure is used to model our knowledge of the uncertainty is considered. Here we also emphasize the subjective choices the decision maker must make in formulating a decision function. The case in which the uncertainty is represented by a fuzzy measure (monotonic set function) is then investigated. We then return to the Dempster-Shafer belief structure and show its relationship to the fuzzy measure. This relationship allows us to get a deeper understanding of the formulation the decision function used Dempster- Shafer framework. We discuss how this deeper understanding allows a decision analyst to better make the subjective choices needed in the formulation of the decision function

  3. Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis book presents the state of the art in marketing decision models, dealing with new modeling areas such as customer relationship management, customer value and online marketing, but also describes recent developments in other areas. In the category of marketing mix models, the latest

  4. Modeling Common-Sense Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    This paper presents a methodology for efficient synthesis of dynamical model simulating a common-sense decision making process. The approach is based upon the extension of the physics' First Principles that includes behavior of living systems. The new architecture consists of motor dynamics simulating actual behavior of the object, and mental dynamics representing evolution of the corresponding knowledge-base and incorporating it in the form of information flows into the motor dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledgebase stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions.

  5. Utility function under decision theory: A construction arbitration application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alozn, Ahmad E.; Galadari, Abdulla

    2017-08-01

    While a wide range of dispute resolution mechanisms exist, practitioners favor legally binding ones such as litigation and arbitration. Since initiating a litigation or arbitration case against a business partner may dissolve the business relationship between them, predicting the arbitrator's decision becomes valuable to the arbitrating parties. This paper proposes a construction-specific utility framework for the arbitrating party through decision theory, and based on expected utility theory. The proposed framework preserves the industry practicality and most importantly, considers direct short-term factors and indirect long-term factors as well. It is suggested that the arbitrating parties' utility functions could be then used to identify equilibrium points among them when interact via game theory principles, which would serve the purpose of predicting the arbitration outcome.

  6. Knowledge-based geometric modeling in construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonev, Martin; Hvam, Lars

    2012-01-01

    a considerably high amount of their recourses is required for designing and specifying the majority of their product assortment. As design decisions are hereby based on knowledge and experience about behaviour and applicability of construction techniques and materials for a predefined design situation, smart......A wider application of IT-based solutions, such as configuration systems and the implementation of modeling standards, has facilitated the trend to produce mass customized products to support inter alia the specification process of the increasing product variety. However, not all industries have...

  7. Constructing a Business Model Taxonomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groth, Pernille; Nielsen, Christian

    2015-01-01

    the quality of business model taxonomy studies in the future are identified. Originality/Value: The paper highlights the benefits and potential implications of designing business model taxonomy studies and makes the case for ensuring the quality of future studies relating to e.g. performance. Reviewing......Abstract Purpose: The paper proposes a research design recipe capable of leading to future business model taxonomies and discusses the potential benefits and implications of achieving this goal. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper provides a review of relevant scholarly literature about business...... models to clarify the subject as well as highlighting the importance of past studies of business model classifications. In addition it reviews the scholarly literature on relevant methodological approaches, such as cluster analysis and latent class analysis, for constructing a business model taxonomy...

  8. Decision table development and application to the construction of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salem, S.L.; Wu, J.S.; Apostolakis, G.

    1979-01-01

    A systematic methodology for the construction of fault trees based on the use of decision tables has been developed. These tables are used to describe each possible output state of a component as a set of combinations of states of inputs and internal operational or T states. Two methods for modeling component behavior via decision tables have been developed, one inductive and one deductive. These methods are useful for creating decision tables that realistically model the operational and failure modes of electrical, mechanical, and hydraulic components as well as human interactions inhibit conditions and common-cause events. A computer code CAT (Computer Automated Tree) has been developed to automatically produce fault trees from decision tables. A simple electrical system was chosen to illustrate the basic features of the decision table approach and to provide an example of an actual fault tree produced by this code. This example demonstrates the potential utility of such an automated approach to fault tree construction once a basic set of general decision tables has been developed

  9. A communication model of shared decision making: accounting for cancer treatment decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siminoff, Laura A; Step, Mary M

    2005-07-01

    The authors present a communication model of shared decision making (CMSDM) that explicitly identifies the communication process as the vehicle for decision making in cancer treatment. In this view, decision making is necessarily a sociocommunicative process whereby people enter into a relationship, exchange information, establish preferences, and choose a course of action. The model derives from contemporary notions of behavioral decision making and ethical conceptions of the doctor-patient relationship. This article briefly reviews the theoretical approaches to decision making, notes deficiencies, and embeds a more socially based process into the dynamics of the physician-patient relationship, focusing on cancer treatment decisions. In the CMSDM, decisions depend on (a) antecedent factors that have potential to influence communication, (b) jointly constructed communication climate, and (c) treatment preferences established by the physician and the patient.

  10. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    . The proposed learning algorithm is adapted from algorithms for learning deterministic probabilistic finite automata, and extended to include both probabilistic and nondeterministic transitions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed and evaluated by learning system models of slot machines. The evaluation......Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm...... on learning probabilistic automata to reactive systems, where the observed system behavior is in the form of alternating sequences of inputs and outputs. We propose an algorithm for automatically learning a deterministic labeled Markov decision process model from the observed behavior of a reactive system...

  11. A greedy algorithm for construction of decision trees for tables with many-valued decisions - A comparative study

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad

    2013-11-25

    In the paper, we study a greedy algorithm for construction of decision trees. This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. Experimental results for data sets from UCI Machine Learning Repository and randomly generated tables are presented. We make a comparative study of the depth and average depth of the constructed decision trees for proposed approach and approach based on generalized decision. The obtained results show that the proposed approach can be useful from the point of view of knowledge representation and algorithm construction.

  12. A greedy algorithm for construction of decision trees for tables with many-valued decisions - A comparative study

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

    2013-01-01

    In the paper, we study a greedy algorithm for construction of decision trees. This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. Experimental results for data sets from UCI Machine Learning Repository and randomly generated tables are presented. We make a comparative study of the depth and average depth of the constructed decision trees for proposed approach and approach based on generalized decision. The obtained results show that the proposed approach can be useful from the point of view of knowledge representation and algorithm construction.

  13. How High School Students Construct Decision-Making Strategies for Choosing Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govan, George V.; Patrick, Sondra; Yen, Cherng-Jyn

    2006-01-01

    This study examined how high school seniors construct decision-making strategies for choosing a college to attend. To comprehend their decision-making strategies, we chose to examine this process through the theoretical lens of bounded rationality, which brings to light the complexity in constructing a college choice decision-making strategy…

  14. Decision models in engineering and management

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a comprehensive overview of various methods  and applications in decision engineering, this book presents chapters written by a range experts in the field. It presents conceptual aspects of decision support applications in various areas including finance, vendor selection, construction, process management, water management and energy, agribusiness , production scheduling and control, and waste management. In addition to this, a special focus is given to methods of multi-criteria decision analysis. Decision making in organizations is a recurrent theme and is essential for business continuity.  Managers from various fields including public, private, industrial, trading or service sectors are required to make decisions. Consequently managers need the support of these structured methods in order to engage in effective decision making. This book provides a valuable resource for graduate students, professors and researchers of decision analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and group decision analys...

  15. Decision tree modeling using R.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2016-08-01

    In machine learning field, decision tree learner is powerful and easy to interpret. It employs recursive binary partitioning algorithm that splits the sample in partitioning variable with the strongest association with the response variable. The process continues until some stopping criteria are met. In the example I focus on conditional inference tree, which incorporates tree-structured regression models into conditional inference procedures. While growing a single tree is subject to small changes in the training data, random forests procedure is introduced to address this problem. The sources of diversity for random forests come from the random sampling and restricted set of input variables to be selected. Finally, I introduce R functions to perform model based recursive partitioning. This method incorporates recursive partitioning into conventional parametric model building.

  16. Modeling Human Elements of Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    include factors such as personality, emotion , and level of expertise, which vary from individual to individual. The process of decision - making during... rational choice theories such as utility theory, to more descriptive psychological models that focus more on the process of decision - making ...descriptive nature, they provide a more realistic representation of human decision - making than the rationally based models. However these models do

  17. Preference Construction Processes for Renewable Energies: Assessing the Influence of Sustainability Information and Decision Support Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiyotada Hayashi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability information and decision support can be two important driving forces for making sustainable transitions in society. However, not enough knowledge is available on the effectiveness of these two factors. Here, we conducted an experimental study to support the hypotheses that acquisition of sustainability information and use of decision support methods consistently construct preferences for renewable power generation technologies that use solar power, wind power, small-scale hydroelectric power, geothermal power, wood biomass, or biogas as energy sources. The sustainability information was prepared using a renewable energy-focused input-output model of Japan and contained life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, electricity generation costs, and job creation. We measured rank-ordered preferences in the following four steps in experimental workshops conducted for municipal officials: provision of (1 energy-source names; (2 sustainability information; (3 additional explanation of public value; and (4 knowledge and techniques about multi-attribute value functions. The degree of changes in preference orders was evaluated using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. The consistency of rank-ordered preferences among participants was determined by using the maximum eigenvalue for the coefficient matrix. The results show: (1 the individual preferences evolved drastically in response to the sustainability information and the decision support method; and (2 the rank-ordered preferences were more consistent during the preference construction processes. These results indicate that provision of sustainability information, coupled with decision support methods, is effective for decision making regarding renewable energies.

  18. Modelling the factors influencing the selection of the construction equipment for Indian construction organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V.S. Raja Prasad

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The contribution of Indian construction sector to the GDP is approximately 10%. Under new government policy, it is anticipated that $1000 Billion share for exclusively infrastructure segment would be completed within the next few years. Construction sector in developing country like India still depends on labor and the practice of mechanization, adopting to use of versatile construction equipment is not in force. The need for implementing new technologies and automation is essential to improve the quality, safety and efficiency. To meet the challenges ahead the construction, organizations should focus on utilization of machinery/equipment to achieve desirable results. Modern construction is characterized by the increase in utilization of equipment to accomplish numerous construction activities. The selection of construction equipment often affects the required amount of time and effort. It is therefore important for managements of construction organizations and planners to be familiar with the features of various types of equipment commonly used in construction activities. The selection of appropriate equipment is a crucial decision making process as it involves huge capital investment. The purpose of the present study is to develop a model pertaining to the factors influencing the selection of construction equipment by using interpretive structural modelling and the results indicate that productivity and safety are the important factors in selection of equipment in Indian construction organizations.

  19. Modelling decision-making by pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

    1993-01-01

    Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).

  20. Multidimensional Balanced Efficiency Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Petrillo

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a multicriteria methodological approach, based on Balanced Scorecard (BSC and Analytic Network Process (ANP, is proposed to evaluate competitiveness performance in luxury sector. A set of specific key performance indicators (KPIs have been proposed. The contribution of our paper is to present the integration of two methodologies, BSC – a multiple perspective framework for performance assessment – and ANP – a decision-making tool to prioritize multiple performance perspectives and indicators and to generate a unified metric that incorporates diversified issues for conducting supply chain improvements. The BSC/ANP model is used to prioritize all performances within a luxury industry. A real case study is presented.

  1. Mental Models Theory and Military Decision-Marking: A Pilot Experimental Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sparkes, Jason

    2003-01-01

    ...) and in the military (e.g., the USS Vincennes incident). In particular, construction of the mental models used when making critical decisions is vulnerable to both problem complexity and logically conflicting (false) information...

  2. Selection of adequate site location during early stages of construction project management: A multi-criteria decision analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marović, Ivan; Hanak, Tomaš

    2017-10-01

    In the management of construction projects special attention should be given to the planning as the most important phase of decision-making process. Quality decision-making based on adequate and comprehensive collaboration of all involved stakeholders is crucial in project’s early stages. Fundamental reasons for existence of this problem arise from: specific conditions of construction industry (final products are inseparable from the location i.e. location has a strong influence of building design and its structural characteristics as well as technology which will be used during construction), investors’ desires and attitudes, and influence of socioeconomic and environment aspects. Considering all mentioned reasons one can conclude that selection of adequate construction site location for future investment is complex, low structured and multi-criteria problem. To take into account all the dimensions, the proposed model for selection of adequate site location is devised. The model is based on AHP (for designing the decision-making hierarchy) and PROMETHEE (for pairwise comparison of investment locations) methods. As a result of mixing basis feature of both methods, operational synergies can be achieved in multi-criteria decision analysis. Such gives the decision-maker a sense of assurance, knowing that if the procedure proposed by the presented model has been followed, it will lead to a rational decision, carefully and systematically thought out.

  3. Greedy algorithm with weights for decision tree construction

    KAUST Repository

    Moshkov, Mikhail

    2010-12-01

    An approximate algorithm for minimization of weighted depth of decision trees is considered. A bound on accuracy of this algorithm is obtained which is unimprovable in general case. Under some natural assumptions on the class NP, the considered algorithm is close (from the point of view of accuracy) to best polynomial approximate algorithms for minimization of weighted depth of decision trees.

  4. Greedy algorithm with weights for decision tree construction

    KAUST Repository

    Moshkov, Mikhail

    2010-01-01

    An approximate algorithm for minimization of weighted depth of decision trees is considered. A bound on accuracy of this algorithm is obtained which is unimprovable in general case. Under some natural assumptions on the class NP, the considered algorithm is close (from the point of view of accuracy) to best polynomial approximate algorithms for minimization of weighted depth of decision trees.

  5. Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ieva Kekytė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.

  6. The Constructive Role of Decisions: Implications from a quantum Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    probabilities to events from quantum mechanics, without any of the physics . Classical Theory (CT) has been the dominant probabilistic framework in decision...forces the ‘system’ to identify with the result of the measurement. In physics , measuring the position of an elementary particle makes the particle have...digital context in moral decision making In this digital age, we spend a lot of time interacting with computer screens, smartphones and other digital

  7. Derivation of Monotone Decision Models from Non-Monotone Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daniëls, H.A.M.; Velikova, M.V.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of data mining is the extraction of knowledge from databases. In practice, one often encounters difficulties with models that are constructed purely by search, without incorporation of knowledge about the domain of application.In economic decision making such as credit loan approval or

  8. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  9. Partnering models in Nordic construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jacob Norvig

    of local research and industry partners including major building clients. Data were collected by means of national reviews of partnering policies and practices, thematic analyses, and case studies. The concept partnering was introduced in a Nordic context in the 1990s and has since then been implemented...... in a large number of projects. Clients sought to establish a culture of openness and trust within the project and tried promoting this with various kinds of incentives. In some countries the move towards voluntary collaboration was, paradoxically, strongly advocated by public authorities. Generally, however......Traditionally, procurement and contractual policies adopted by building and construction clients produce a system in which clients procure design services separately from construction services, while operation and maintenance have been subject to further, separate procurement actions...

  10. A New Transcendence Model of Identity Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Christopher L. Wilcox

    2012-01-01

    What does it mean for college men to be authentic? How can we support their efforts to transcend their own immediate needs? And what roles do trusted others play in one's construction of identity? This article describes a preliminary new theoretical model--a Transcendence Model of Identity Construction--based on original research studying…

  11. Template for Conceptual Model Construction: Model Review and Corps Applications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Henderson, Jim E; O'Neil, L. J

    2007-01-01

    .... The template will expedite conceptual model construction by providing users with model parameters and potential model components, building on a study team's knowledge and experience, and promoting...

  12. Constructing an optimal decision tree for FAST corner point detection

    KAUST Repository

    Alkhalid, Abdulaziz; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we consider a problem that is originated in computer vision: determining an optimal testing strategy for the corner point detection problem that is a part of FAST algorithm [11,12]. The problem can be formulated as building a decision tree with the minimum average depth for a decision table with all discrete attributes. We experimentally compare performance of an exact algorithm based on dynamic programming and several greedy algorithms that differ in the attribute selection criterion. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  13. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

  14. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  15. Construction and Validation of the Career and Educational Decision Self-Efficacy Inventory for Secondary Students (CEDSIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Esther Sui Chu; Sum, Kwok Wing

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to construct and validate the Career and Educational Decision Self-Efficacy Inventory for Secondary Students (CEDSIS) by using a sample of 2,631 students in Hong Kong. Principal component analysis yielded a three-factor structure, which demonstrated good model fit in confirmatory factor analysis. High reliability was found for the…

  16. Renovation versus New Construction and Building Decision Tool for Educational Facilities

    OpenAIRE

    Pope, Carrie; Marks, Eric; Back, Edward; Leopard, Tim; Love, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Renovation of an existing building is an accomplished stem of the construction industry because it supplies financial diversification for construction stakeholders. Although several construction planning tools and stakeholder alignment exercises have been developed, no tool exists to assist project owners to decide between renovating an existing building and new construction with a comprehensive decision criteria. The objective of this research is to create and test a renovation versus new bu...

  17. Safe models for risky decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steingröver, H.M.

    2017-01-01

    In everyday life, we often have to decide between options that differ in their immediate and long-term consequences. Would you, for example, opt for a delicious piece of cake or rather eat a healthy apple? To investigate how people make risky decisions, this thesis focuses on the Iowa gambling task

  18. Improved TOPSIS decision model for NPP emergencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jin; Liu Feng; Huang Lian

    2011-01-01

    In this paper,an improved decision model is developed for its use as a tool to respond to emergencies at nuclear power plants. Given the complexity of multi-attribute emergency decision-making on nuclear accident, the improved TOPSIS method is used to build a decision-making model that integrates subjective weight and objective weight of each evaluation index. A comparison between the results of this new model and two traditional methods of fuzzy hierarchy analysis method and weighted analysis method demonstrates that the improved TOPSIS model has a better evaluation effect. (authors)

  19. Constructing diagnostic likelihood: clinical decisions using subjective versus statistical probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnear, John; Jackson, Ruth

    2017-07-01

    Although physicians are highly trained in the application of evidence-based medicine, and are assumed to make rational decisions, there is evidence that their decision making is prone to biases. One of the biases that has been shown to affect accuracy of judgements is that of representativeness and base-rate neglect, where the saliency of a person's features leads to overestimation of their likelihood of belonging to a group. This results in the substitution of 'subjective' probability for statistical probability. This study examines clinicians' propensity to make estimations of subjective probability when presented with clinical information that is considered typical of a medical condition. The strength of the representativeness bias is tested by presenting choices in textual and graphic form. Understanding of statistical probability is also tested by omitting all clinical information. For the questions that included clinical information, 46.7% and 45.5% of clinicians made judgements of statistical probability, respectively. Where the question omitted clinical information, 79.9% of clinicians made a judgement consistent with statistical probability. There was a statistically significant difference in responses to the questions with and without representativeness information (χ2 (1, n=254)=54.45, pprobability. One of the causes for this representativeness bias may be the way clinical medicine is taught where stereotypic presentations are emphasised in diagnostic decision making. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  20. Decision modeling and acceptance criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    compensation value of a human life and a public money equivalent of a human life, where the last value usually is considerably larger than the first value, it is possible from the decision analysis to determine an upper limit that the public should impose on the ratio of the owner´s expected loss rate......) that combines wealth in terms of Gross Domestic Product per person, life expectancy at birth, and yearly work time into a single number. The philosophy behind the published evaluations is that the prevention of a loss of a life is counteracted by a cost such that the LQI remains unchanged (Skjong R, Ronold K......; Decision Analysis; Life quality index; Random interest rate; Risk aversion; Socio-economic value; Uncertainty aversion...

  1. Modelling contractor’s bidding decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biruk Sławomir

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors aim to provide a set of tools to facilitate the main stages of the competitive bidding process for construction contractors. These involve 1 deciding whether to bid, 2 calculating the total price, and 3 breaking down the total price into the items of the bill of quantities or the schedule of payments to optimise contractor cash flows. To define factors that affect the decision to bid, the authors rely upon literature on the subject and put forward that multi-criteria methods are applied to calculate a single measure of contract attractiveness (utility value. An attractive contract implies that the contractor is likely to offer a lower price to increase chances of winning the competition. The total bid price is thus to be interpolated between the lowest acceptable and the highest justifiable price based on the contract attractiveness. With the total bid price established, the next step is to split it between the items of the schedule of payments. A linear programming model is proposed for this purpose. The application of the models is illustrated with a numerical example.

  2. Intuitionistic preference modeling and interactive decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zeshui

    2014-01-01

    This book offers an in-depth and comprehensive introduction to the priority methods of intuitionistic preference relations, the consistency and consensus improving procedures for intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches to group decision making based on intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches and models for interactive decision making with intuitionistic fuzzy information, and the extended results in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environments.

  3. Modeling as a Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.

    2017-01-01

    The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…

  4. Solid Waste Management Holistic Decision Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2008-01-01

    This study provides support to the Bank's ability to conduct client dialogue on solid waste management technology selection, and will contribute to client decision-making. The goal of the study was to fully explore the use of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the Research Triangle Institute (EPA/RTI) holistic decision model to study alternative solid waste systems in a ...

  5. Seven business models for decision management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Martijn Zoet; Eline de Haan; Koen Smit

    2016-01-01

    Research, advisory companies, consultants and system integrators all predict that a lot of money will be earned with decision management (business rules, algorithms and analytics). But how can you actually make money with decision management or in other words: Which business models are exactly

  6. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project ..... help a manager handle stress and break tension (Gido & Clements,. 2012: 331; Harrin .... production and management of projects, the higher the demand for.

  7. Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

  8. Theoretical Models, Assessment Frameworks and Test Construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalhoub-Deville, Micheline

    1997-01-01

    Reviews the usefulness of proficiency models influencing second language testing. Findings indicate that several factors contribute to the lack of congruence between models and test construction and make a case for distinguishing between theoretical models. Underscores the significance of an empirical, contextualized and structured approach to the…

  9. A Moral (Normative) Framework for the Judgment of Actions and Decisions in the Construction Industry and Engineering: Part II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhatib, Omar J

    2017-12-01

    The construction industry is typically characterized as a fragmented, multi-organizational setting in which members from different technical backgrounds and moral values join together to develop a particular business or project. The most challenging obstacle in the construction process is to achieve a successful practice and to identify and apply an ethical framework to manage the behavior of involved specialists and contractors and to ensure the quality of all completed construction activities. The framework should reflect a common moral ground for myriad people involved in this process to survive and compete ethically in today's turbulent construction market. This study establishes a framework for moral judgment of behavior and actions conducted in the construction process. The moral framework provides the basis of judging actions as "moral" or "immoral" based on three levels of moral accountability: personal, professional, and social. The social aspect of the proposed framework is developed primarily from the essential attributes of normative business decision-making models identified in the literature review and subsequently incorporates additional attributes related to professional and personal moral values. The normative decision-making models reviewed are based primarily on social attributes as related to moral theories (e.g., utilitarianism, duty, rights, virtue, etc.). The professional and moral attributes are established by identifying a set of common moral values recognized by professionals in the construction industry and required to prevent common construction breaches. The moral framework presented here is the complementary part of the ethical framework developed in Part I of this article and is based primarily on the personal behavior or the moral aspect of professional responsibility. The framework can be implemented as a form of preventive personal ethics, which would help avoid ethical dilemmas and moral implications in the first place

  10. Constructing Perceptions of Climate Change: a case study of regional political decision makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, D.

    2012-12-01

    social construction of climate change, not scientific claims, that are shaping decisions. While certainty is the common demand of those charged with making decisions concerning climate change, certainty is the quality that seems to be given least value in taking action. Weather records are all but ignored. The direct voice of scientists was heeded but not fully accepted. In the transition, the truth-to-power model appears to be somewhat modified, whereby power states that the future will be different, but the difference is determined by other sources; shaping images of risk and danger. One could not deny that climate and sea level have always been forces shaping patterns of human settlement. And one could not deny that perhaps the time is nigh to reassess the human relationship with nature. However, any measure considered should be done so with a rational sense of objectivity. To do otherwise, there is the risk of misallocating scare resources.

  11. Introduction to Modeling of Buying Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Gruenwald

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Buying decision models of customers to adjust the competitiveness of organizations have been a challenge for marketing disciplines for several generations. This topic has been explored by researchers and academics in past years, and quite an extensive theoretical base exists with a number of approaches for dealing with this challenge.This paper presents some approaches for creating a customer decision model, and provides experimental results from an electronic investigation intended to build the Kano Model; to prove an ability to understand the modeling principle; and to find out the interpretation of the examined demand in a specific market segment involving students of a technical university. The last section of the paper contains a brief introduction to Choice-Based Modeling with Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis (CBC, which was tailored for modeling purchasing decisions.

  12. Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosalie J. Ingram

    1989-01-01

    Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

  13. Comprehensive decision tree models in bioinformatics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor Stiglic

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. METHODS: This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. RESULTS: The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. CONCLUSIONS: The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets

  14. Comprehensive decision tree models in bioinformatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiglic, Gregor; Kocbek, Simon; Pernek, Igor; Kokol, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets with binary class attributes and a high number of possibly

  15. A decision model for planetary missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.; Brigadier, W. L.

    1976-01-01

    Many techniques developed for the solution of problems in economics and operations research are directly applicable to problems involving engineering trade-offs. This paper investigates the use of utility theory for decision making in planetary exploration space missions. A decision model is derived that accounts for the objectives of the mission - science - the cost of flying the mission and the risk of mission failure. A simulation methodology for obtaining the probability distribution of science value and costs as a function spacecraft and mission design is presented and an example application of the decision methodology is given for various potential alternatives in a comet Encke mission.

  16. Marketing data, models and decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wedel, M; Kamakura, W; Bockenholt, U

    Our comments about the paper by Leeflang and Wittink [Internat. J. Res. Marketing, 17 (2000) 105] comprise of two components: first, we address two issues on which we disagree with Leeflang and Wittink: soft versus hard data, and individual-level versus segment-level models. Secondly, we supplement

  17. Risk Decision Making Based on Decision-theoretic Rough Set: A Three-way View Decision Model

    OpenAIRE

    Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou

    2011-01-01

    Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...

  18. Complicating decisions: The work ethic heuristic and the construction of effortful decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrift, Rom Y; Kivetz, Ran; Netzer, Oded

    2016-07-01

    The notion that effort and hard work yield desired outcomes is ingrained in many cultures and affects our thinking and behavior. However, could valuing effort complicate our lives? In the present article, the authors demonstrate that individuals with a stronger tendency to link effort with positive outcomes end up complicating what should be easy decisions. People distort their preferences and the information they search and recall in a manner that intensifies the choice conflict and decisional effort they experience before finalizing their choice. Six experiments identify the effort-outcome link as the underlying mechanism for such conflict-increasing behavior. Individuals with a stronger tendency to link effort with positive outcomes (e.g., individuals who subscribe to a Protestant Work Ethic) are shown to complicate decisions by: (a) distorting evaluations of alternatives (Study 1); (b) distorting information recalled about the alternatives (Studies 2a and 2b); and (3) distorting interpretations of information about the alternatives (Study 3). Further, individuals conduct a superfluous search for information and spend more time than needed on what should have been an easy decision (Studies 4a and 4b). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. The construct-behavior gap in behavioral decision research: A challenge beyond replicability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regenwetter, Michel; Robinson, Maria M

    2017-10-01

    Behavioral decision research compares theoretical constructs like preferences to behavior such as observed choices. Three fairly common links from constructs to behavior are (1) to tally, across participants and decision problems, the number of choices consistent with one predicted pattern of pairwise preferences; (2) to compare what most people choose in each decision problem against a predicted preference pattern; or (3) to enumerate the decision problems in which two experimental conditions generate a 1-sided significant difference in choice frequency 'consistent' with the theory. Although simple, these theoretical links are heuristics. They are subject to well-known reasoning fallacies, most notably the fallacy of sweeping generalization and the fallacy of composition. No amount of replication can alleviate these fallacies. On the contrary, reiterating logically inconsistent theoretical reasoning over and again across studies obfuscates science. As a case in point, we consider pairwise choices among simple lotteries and the hypotheses of overweighting or underweighting of small probabilities, as well as the description-experience gap. We discuss ways to avoid reasoning fallacies in bridging the conceptual gap between hypothetical constructs, such as, for example, "overweighting" to observable pairwise choice data. Although replication is invaluable, successful replication of hard-to-interpret results is not. Behavioral decision research stands to gain much theoretical and empirical clarity by spelling out precise and formally explicit theories of how hypothetical constructs translate into observable behavior. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Procedural Personas for Player Decision Modeling and Procedural Content Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer

    2016-01-01

    ." These methods for constructing procedural personas are then integrated with existing procedural content generation systems, acting as critics that shape the output of these systems, optimizing generated content for different personas and by extension, different kinds of players and their decision making styles......How can player models and artificially intelligent (AI) agents be useful in early-stage iterative game and simulation design? One answer may be as ways of generating synthetic play-test data, before a game or level has ever seen a player, or when the sampled amount of play test data is very low....... This thesis explores methods for creating low-complexity, easily interpretable, generative AI agents for use in game and simulation design. Based on insights from decision theory and behavioral economics, the thesis investigates how player decision making styles may be defined, operationalised, and measured...

  1. Fuzzy decision approach for selection of most suitable construction method of Green Buildings

    OpenAIRE

    Sunita Bansal; Srijit Biswas; S.K. Singh

    2017-01-01

    A big challenge in sustainable projects is selection of appropriate construction method and is considered to be the decisive factor for its success. Many environment friendly prefabricated elements are entering into the market at an increasing pace. This has increased the workload and inquisitiveness of the stakeholders who will need information about their environmental, technical and esthetic aspects. The use of prefabrication in sustainable construction is advantageous but appropriate deci...

  2. A model-referenced procedure to support adversarial decision processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.; Vlahos, K.

    1992-01-01

    In public enquiries concerning major facilities, such as the construction of a new electric power plant, it is observed that a useable decision model should be made commonly available alongside the open provision of data and assumptions. The protagonist, eg the electric utility, generally makes use of a complex, proprietary model for detailed evaluation of options. A simple emulator of this, based upon a regression analysis of numerous scenarios, and validated by further simulations is shown to be feasible and potentially attractive. It would be in the interests of the utility to make such a model-referenced decision support method generally available. The approach is considered in relation to the recent Hinkley Point C public enquiry for a new nuclear power plant in the UK. (Author)

  3. Overcoming barriers to development of cooperative medical decision support models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Donna L; Cohen, Maurice E

    2012-01-01

    Attempts to automate the medical decision making process have been underway for the at least fifty years, beginning with data-based approaches that relied chiefly on statistically-based methods. Approaches expanded to include knowledge-based systems, both linear and non-linear neural networks, agent-based systems, and hybrid methods. While some of these models produced excellent results none have been used extensively in medical practice. In order to move these methods forward into practical use, a number of obstacles must be overcome, including validation of existing systems on large data sets, development of methods for including new knowledge as it becomes available, construction of a broad range of decision models, and development of non-intrusive methods that allow the physician to use these decision aids in conjunction with, not instead of, his or her own medical knowledge. None of these four requirements will come easily. A cooperative effort among researchers, including practicing MDs, is vital, particularly as more information on diseases and their contributing factors continues to expand resulting in more parameters than the human decision maker can process effectively. In this article some of the basic structures that are necessary to facilitate the use of an automated decision support system are discussed, along with potential methods for overcoming existing barriers.

  4. Emergent collective decision-making: Control, model and behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Tian

    decentralized control laws for engineering applications from mobile sensor networks for environmental monitoring to collective construction robots. With this dissertation we hope to provide additional methodology and mathematical models for understanding the behavior and control of collective decision-making in multi-agent systems.

  5. Nursing Faculty Decision Making about Best Practices in Test Construction, Item Analysis, and Revision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killingsworth, Erin Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    With the widespread use of classroom exams in nursing education there is a great need for research on current practices in nursing education regarding this form of assessment. The purpose of this study was to explore how nursing faculty members make decisions about using best practices in classroom test construction, item analysis, and revision in…

  6. Construction and application of hierarchical decision tree for classification of ultrasonographic prostate images

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, R. J.; Huynen, A. L.; Aarnink, R. G.; de la Rosette, J. J.; Debruyne, F. M.; Wijkstra, H.

    1996-01-01

    A non-parametric algorithm is described for the construction of a binary decision tree classifier. This tree is used to correlate textural features, computed from ultrasonographic prostate images, with the histopathology of the imaged tissue. The algorithm consists of two parts; growing and pruning.

  7. A heuristic forecasting model for stock decision

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, D.; Jiang, Q.; Li, X.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a heuristic forecasting model based on neural networks for stock decision-making. Some heuristic strategies are presented for enhancing the learning capability of neural networks and obtaining better trading performance. The China Shanghai Composite Index is used as case study. The forecasting model can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the result of neural network prediction. Results are compared with a benchmark buy-and-hold strategy. ...

  8. Understanding sexual harassment using aggregate construct models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nye, Christopher D; Brummel, Bradley J; Drasgow, Fritz

    2014-11-01

    Sexual harassment has received a substantial amount of empirical attention over the past few decades, and this research has consistently shown that experiencing these behaviors has a detrimental effect on employees' well-being, job attitudes, and behaviors at work. However, these findings, and the conclusions that are drawn from them, make the implicit assumption that the empirical models used to examine sexual harassment are properly specified. This article presents evidence that properly specified aggregate construct models are more consistent with theoretical structures and definitions of sexual harassment and can result in different conclusions about the nomological network of harassment. Results from 3 large samples, 2 military and 1 from a civilian population, are used to illustrate the differences between aggregate construct and reflective indicator models of sexual harassment. These analyses suggested that the factor structure and the nomological network of sexual harassment differ when modeling harassment as an aggregate construct. The implications of these results for the continued study of sexual harassment are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Todd

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.

  10. Factors influencing decisions on delay claims in construction contracts for Indian scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitin Balkrishna Chaphalkar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Construction industry in India is second largest next to agriculture. In current era of infrastructure development construction projects occupy a key position. In any construction project contract time and cost overrun is a common feature, which gives rise to claims leading to disputes. These disputes if not handled properly tend to consume time and money of all parties to the contract. To resolve the dispute in optimum time, it is essential to understand the root cause of disputes as early as possible. Hence there is a need of analyzing the disputes scientifically.  The present study reveals from the study of arbitration awards that the causes for delay claims can be grouped in domains and the probable decisions to the disputes can be traced through the probing questions considered by decision makers. This paper attempts to identify questions related to disputes for Indian scenario through literature, arbitration awards, court cases and discussions with professionals.

  11. Factors influencing decisions on delay claims in construction contracts for Indian scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitin Balkrishna Chaphalkar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available   Construction industry in India is second largest next to agriculture. In current era of infrastructure development construction projects occupy a key position. In any construction project contract time and cost overrun is a common feature, which gives rise to claims leading to disputes. These disputes if not handled properly tend to consume time and money of all parties to the contract. To resolve the dispute in optimum time, it is essential to understand the root cause of disputes as early as possible. Hence there is a need of analyzing the disputes scientifically.  The present study reveals from the study of arbitration awards that the causes for delay claims can be grouped in domains and the probable decisions to the disputes can be traced through the probing questions considered by decision makers. This paper attempts to identify questions related to disputes for Indian scenario through literature, arbitration awards, court cases and discussions with professionals.

  12. Integrating decision management with UML modeling concepts and tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    , but also for guiding the user by proposing subsequent decisions. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, the decisions are typically not connected to these models...... of formerly disconnected tools could improve tool usability as well as decision maker productivity....

  13. Decision Support Model for Optimal Management of Coastal Gate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditthakit, Pakorn; Chittaladakorn, Suwatana

    2010-05-01

    The coastal areas are intensely settled by human beings owing to their fertility of natural resources. However, at present those areas are facing with water scarcity problems: inadequate water and poor water quality as a result of saltwater intrusion and inappropriate land-use management. To solve these problems, several measures have been exploited. The coastal gate construction is a structural measure widely performed in several countries. This manner requires the plan for suitably operating coastal gates. Coastal gate operation is a complicated task and usually concerns with the management of multiple purposes, which are generally conflicted one another. This paper delineates the methodology and used theories for developing decision support modeling for coastal gate operation scheduling. The developed model was based on coupling simulation and optimization model. The weighting optimization technique based on Differential Evolution (DE) was selected herein for solving multiple objective problems. The hydrodynamic and water quality models were repeatedly invoked during searching the optimal gate operations. In addition, two forecasting models:- Auto Regressive model (AR model) and Harmonic Analysis model (HA model) were applied for forecasting water levels and tide levels, respectively. To demonstrate the applicability of the developed model, it was applied to plan the operations for hypothetical system of Pak Phanang coastal gate system, located in Nakhon Si Thammarat province, southern part of Thailand. It was found that the proposed model could satisfyingly assist decision-makers for operating coastal gates under various environmental, ecological and hydraulic conditions.

  14. Item Construction and Psychometric Models Appropriate for Constructed Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-08-01

    which involve only one attribute per item. This is especially true when we are dealing with constructed-response items, we have to measure much more...Service University of Ilinois Educacional Testing Service Rosedal Road Capign. IL 61801 Princeton. K3 08541 Princeton. N3 08541 Dr. Charles LeiS Dr

  15. A Systematic Approach to Modelling Change Processes in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Motawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Modelling change processes within construction projects isessential to implement changes efficiently. Incomplete informationon the project variables at the early stages of projects leads toinadequate knowledge of future states and imprecision arisingfrom ambiguity in project parameters. This lack of knowledge isconsidered among the main source of changes in construction.Change identification and evaluation, in addition to predictingits impacts on project parameters, can help in minimising thedisruptive effects of changes. This paper presents a systematicapproach to modelling change process within construction projectsthat helps improve change identification and evaluation. Theapproach represents the key decisions required to implementchanges. The requirements of an effective change processare presented first. The variables defined for efficient changeassessment and diagnosis are then presented. Assessmentof construction changes requires an analysis for the projectcharacteristics that lead to change and also analysis of therelationship between the change causes and effects. The paperconcludes that, at the early stages of a project, projects with a highlikelihood of change occurrence should have a control mechanismover the project characteristics that have high influence on theproject. It also concludes, for the relationship between changecauses and effects, the multiple causes of change should bemodelled in a way to enable evaluating the change effects moreaccurately. The proposed approach is the framework for tacklingsuch conclusions and can be used for evaluating change casesdepending on the available information at the early stages ofconstruction projects.

  16. A Procurement Performance Model for Construction Frameworks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terence Y M Lam

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Collaborative construction frameworks have been developed in the United Kingdom (UK to create longer term relationships between clients and suppliers in order to improve project outcomes. Research undertaken into highways maintenance set within a major county council has confirmed that such collaborative procurement methods can improve time, cost and quality of construction projects. Building upon this and examining the same single case, this research aims to develop a performance model through identification of performance drivers in the whole project delivery process including pre and post contract phases. A priori performance model based on operational and sociological constructs was proposed and then checked by a pilot study. Factor analysis and central tendency statistics from the questionnaires as well as content analysis from the interview transcripts were conducted. It was confirmed that long term relationships, financial and non-financial incentives and stronger communication are the sociological behaviour factors driving performance. The interviews also established that key performance indicators (KPIs can be used as an operational measure to improve performance. With the posteriori performance model, client project managers can effectively collaboratively manage contractor performance through procurement measures including use of longer term and KPIs for the contract so that the expected project outcomes can be achieved. The findings also make significant contribution to construction framework procurement theory by identifying the interrelated sociological and operational performance drivers. This study is set predominantly in the field of highways civil engineering. It is suggested that building based projects or other projects that share characteristics are grouped together and used for further research of the phenomena discovered.

  17. Scale model helps Duke untie construction snags

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1977-01-01

    A nuclear power plant model, only 60 percent complete, has helped Duke Power identify over 150 major design interferences, which, when resolved, will help cut capital expense and eliminate scheduling problems that normally crop up as revisions are made during actual plant construction. The model has been used by construction, steam production, and design personnel to recommend changes that should improve material handling, operations, and maintenance procedures as well as simplifying piping and cabling. The company has already saved many man-hours in material take-off, material management, and detailed drafting and expects to save even more with greater use of, and improvement in, its modeling program. Duke's modeling program was authorized and became operational in November 1974, with the first model to be the Catawba Nuclear Station. This plant is a two-unit station using Westinghouse nuclear steam supply systems in tandem with General Electric turbine-generators, horizontal feedwater heaters, and Foster Wheeler triple pressure condensers. Each unit is rated 1142 MWe

  18. Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models

    CERN Document Server

    Willett, Roger; Brown, Kerry; Mathew, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models, is the second volume of the Engineering Asset Management Review Series. The manuscripts provide examples of implementations of asset information systems as well as some practical applications of condition data for diagnostics and prognostics. The increasing trend is towards prognostics rather than diagnostics, hence the need for assessment and decision models that promote the conversion of condition data into prognostic information to improve life-cycle planning for engineered assets. The research papers included here serve to support the on-going development of Condition Monitoring standards. This volume comprises selected papers from the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd World Congresses on Engineering Asset Management, which were convened under the auspices of ISEAM in collaboration with a number of organisations, including CIEAM Australia, Asset Management Council Australia, BINDT UK, and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Chin...

  19. Materials and techniques for model construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wigley, D. A.

    1985-01-01

    The problems confronting the designer of models for cryogenic wind tunnel models are discussed with particular reference to the difficulties in obtaining appropriate data on the mechanical and physical properties of candidate materials and their fabrication technologies. The relationship between strength and toughness of alloys is discussed in the context of maximizing both and avoiding the problem of dimensional and microstructural instability. All major classes of materials used in model construction are considered in some detail and in the Appendix selected numerical data is given for the most relevant materials. The stepped-specimen program to investigate stress-induced dimensional changes in alloys is discussed in detail together with interpretation of the initial results. The methods used to bond model components are considered with particular reference to the selection of filler alloys and temperature cycles to avoid microstructural degradation and loss of mechanical properties.

  20. Development of a decision analytic model to support decision making and risk communication about thrombolytic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMeekin, Peter; Flynn, Darren; Ford, Gary A; Rodgers, Helen; Gray, Jo; Thomson, Richard G

    2015-11-11

    Individualised prediction of outcomes can support clinical and shared decision making. This paper describes the building of such a model to predict outcomes with and without intravenous thrombolysis treatment following ischaemic stroke. A decision analytic model (DAM) was constructed to establish the likely balance of benefits and risks of treating acute ischaemic stroke with thrombolysis. Probability of independence, (modified Rankin score mRS ≤ 2), dependence (mRS 3 to 5) and death at three months post-stroke was based on a calibrated version of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument using data from routinely treated stroke patients in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS-UK) registry. Predictions in untreated patients were validated using data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). The probability of symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage in treated patients was incorporated using a scoring model from Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-Monitoring Study (SITS-MOST) data. The model predicts probabilities of haemorrhage, death, independence and dependence at 3-months, with and without thrombolysis, as a function of 13 patient characteristics. Calibration (and inclusion of additional predictors) of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (S-TPI) addressed issues of under and over prediction. Validation with VISTA data confirmed that assumptions about treatment effect were just. The C-statistics for independence and death in treated patients in the DAM were 0.793 and 0.771 respectively, and 0.776 for independence in untreated patients from VISTA. We have produced a DAM that provides an estimation of the likely benefits and risks of thrombolysis for individual patients, which has subsequently been embedded in a computerised decision aid to support better decision-making and informed consent.

  1. Conceptual Model for Systematic Construction Waste Management

    OpenAIRE

    Abd Rahim Mohd Hilmi Izwan; Kasim Narimah

    2017-01-01

    Development of the construction industry generated construction waste which can contribute towards environmental issues. Weaknesses of compliance in construction waste management especially in construction site have also contributed to the big issues of waste generated in landfills and illegal dumping area. This gives sign that construction projects are needed a systematic construction waste management. To date, a comprehensive criteria of construction waste management, particularly for const...

  2. Modeling system for the rapid construction in Syria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed, Sonia

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Prefabrication is a manufacturing process conducted at a specialized facility, in which various materials are joined to form a component part of the final installation. Prefabrication techniques have been progressively adopted in the construction industry in various countries. The demand was at its peak in the early 1970s in Eastern and Western Europe for the construction of new towns. Worldwide, the highest precast levels in 1996 were located in Denmark (43%, the Netherlands (40%, Sweden and Germany (31%. In Asia, the precast levels in Japan and Singapore were about 15% and 8%, respectively, recently, the use of prefabrication is further encouraged to increase productivity and build ability. In Syria too, the first residential project in Damascus: the establishment of 2400 housing units in the year (77-80. Except that the rate of construction pre-cast in Syria is still not exceed 2% of Building of reinforced concrete. In order to participate in the reconstruction of Syria, after the destruction and devastation caused by the war over four years, this search evaluates successful international experiences in rapid construction technique, and modeled system that could serve the current Syrian reality. Introduction of this technology as a new method in the world of construction in Syria requires a good base, relying on the availability of the necessary raw materials and nearness of work site, as well as the need to replace old technology into modern technology, and analyzing the economic, social, environmental criteria, to make the decision about the best solution. Cost and time will form the most important indicators that will be analyzed and calculated, before the final model mode, in order to be able to use this system later in Syrian construction companies.

  3. Judicial problems in connection with preliminary decision and construction design approval in nuclear licensing procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmieder, K.

    1977-01-01

    Standardization in nuclear engineering makes two demands on a legal instrument which is to make this standardization possible and which is to promote standardization in the nuclear licensing practice: On the basis of just one licence for a constructional part or a component, its applicability in any number of subsequent facility licensing procedures has to be warranted, and by virtue of its binding effect, standardization has to create a sufficiently big confidence protection with manufacturers, constructioneers and operators to offer sufficiently effective incentives for standardization. The nuclear preliminary decision pursuant to section 7 a of the Atomic Energy Act in the form of the component preliminary decision appears to be unsuitable as a legal instrument for standardization, as the preliminary decision refers exclusively to the construction of a concrete facility. For standardization in reactor engineering, the construction design approval appears to be basically the proper legal instrument on account of its legal structure as well as its economic effect. Its binding effect encouters a limitation with regard to third parties in so far that this limitation could question again the binding effect in a subsequent site-dependent nuclear licence procedure. The legal structure of the extent of the binding effect, which is decisive for the suitability of the construction design approval, lies with the legislator. The following questions have to be regulated: Ought the applicant to have a legal claim on the granting of a construction design approval, or ought it to be at the discretion of the authorities, and secondly, the extent of the binding effect in terms of time on the basis of the fixation of a time limit, or on the basis of the possibility of subsequent conditions to be imposed, or the revocation. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Decision support models for natural gas dispatch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chin, L.; Vollmann, T.E.

    1992-01-01

    A decision support model is presented which will give utilities the support tools to manage the purchasing of natural gas supplies in the most cost effective manner without reducing winter safety stocks to below minimum levels. In Business As Usual (BAU) purchasing quantities vary with the daily forecasts. With Material Requirements Planning (MRP) and Linear Programming (LP), two types of factors are used: seasonal weather and decision rule. Under current practices, BAU simulation uses the least expensive gas source first, then adding successively more expensive sources. Material Requirements Planning is a production planning technique which uses a parent item master production schedule to determine time phased requirements for component points. Where the MPS is the aggregate gas demand forecasts for the contract year. This satisfies daily demand with least expensive gas and uses more expensive when necessary with automatic computation of available-to-promise (ATP) gas a dispacher knows daily when extra gas supplies may be ATP. Linear Programming is a mathematical algorithm used to determine optimal allocations of scarce resources to achieve a desired result. The LP model determines optimal daily gas purchase decisions with respect to supply cost minimization. Using these models, it appears possible to raise gross income margins 6 to 10% with minimal additions of customers and no new gas supply

  5. Decision support models for natural gas dispatch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chin, L. (Bentley College, Waltham, MA (United States)); Vollmann, T.E. (International Inst. for Management Development, Lausanne (Switzerland))

    A decision support model is presented which will give utilities the support tools to manage the purchasing of natural gas supplies in the most cost effective manner without reducing winter safety stocks to below minimum levels. In Business As Usual (BAU) purchasing quantities vary with the daily forecasts. With Material Requirements Planning (MRP) and Linear Programming (LP), two types of factors are used: seasonal weather and decision rule. Under current practices, BAU simulation uses the least expensive gas source first, then adding successively more expensive sources. Material Requirements Planning is a production planning technique which uses a parent item master production schedule to determine time phased requirements for component points. Where the MPS is the aggregate gas demand forecasts for the contract year. This satisfies daily demand with least expensive gas and uses more expensive when necessary with automatic computation of available-to-promise (ATP) gas a dispacher knows daily when extra gas supplies may be ATP. Linear Programming is a mathematical algorithm used to determine optimal allocations of scarce resources to achieve a desired result. The LP model determines optimal daily gas purchase decisions with respect to supply cost minimization. Using these models, it appears possible to raise gross income margins 6 to 10% with minimal additions of customers and no new gas supply.

  6. Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

  7. A judgment and decision-making model for plant behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karban, Richard; Orrock, John L

    2018-06-12

    Recently plant biologists have documented that plants, like animals, engage in many activities that can be considered as behaviors, although plant biologists currently lack a conceptual framework to understand these processes. Borrowing the well-established framework developed by psychologists, we propose that plant behaviors can be constructively modeled by identifying four distinct components: 1) a cue or stimulus that provides information, 2) a judgment whereby the plant perceives and processes this informative cue, 3) a decision whereby the plant chooses among several options based on their relative costs and benefits, and 4) action. Judgment for plants can be determined empirically by monitoring signaling associated with electrical, calcium, or hormonal fluxes. Decision-making can be evaluated empirically by monitoring gene expression or differential allocation of resources. We provide examples of the utility of this judgment and decision-making framework by considering cases in which plants either successfully or unsuccessfully induced resistance against attacking herbivores. Separating judgment from decision-making suggests new analytical paradigms (i.e., Bayesian methods for judgment and economic utility models for decision-making). Following this framework, we propose an experimental approach to plant behavior that explicitly manipulates the stimuli provided to plants, uses plants that vary in sensory abilities, and examines how environmental context affects plant responses. The concepts and approaches that follow from the judgment and decision-making framework can shape how we study and understand plant-herbivore interactions, biological invasions, plant responses to climate change, and the susceptibility of plants to evolutionary traps. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  8. Process-Based Modeling of Constructed Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baechler, S.; Brovelli, A.; Rossi, L.; Barry, D. A.

    2007-12-01

    Constructed wetlands (CWs) are widespread facilities for wastewater treatment. In subsurface flow wetlands, contaminated wastewater flows through a porous matrix, where oxidation and detoxification phenomena occur. Despite the large number of working CWs, system design and optimization are still mainly based upon empirical equations or simplified first-order kinetics. This results from an incomplete understanding of the system functioning, and may in turn hinder the performance and effectiveness of the treatment process. As a result, CWs are often considered not suitable to meet high water quality-standards, or to treat water contaminated with recalcitrant anthropogenic contaminants. To date, only a limited number of detailed numerical models have been developed and successfully applied to simulate constructed wetland behavior. Among these, one of the most complete and powerful is CW2D, which is based on Hydrus2D. The aim of this work is to develop a comprehensive simulator tailored to model the functioning of horizontal flow constructed wetlands and in turn provide a reliable design and optimization tool. The model is based upon PHWAT, a general reactive transport code for saturated flow. PHWAT couples MODFLOW, MT3DMS and PHREEQC-2 using an operator-splitting approach. The use of PHREEQC to simulate reactions allows great flexibility in simulating biogeochemical processes. The biogeochemical reaction network is similar to that of CW2D, and is based on the Activated Sludge Model (ASM). Kinetic oxidation of carbon sources and nutrient transformations (nitrogen and phosphorous primarily) are modeled via Monod-type kinetic equations. Oxygen dissolution is accounted for via a first-order mass-transfer equation. While the ASM model only includes a limited number of kinetic equations, the new simulator permits incorporation of an unlimited number of both kinetic and equilibrium reactions. Changes in pH, redox potential and surface reactions can be easily incorporated

  9. Structural Model Error and Decision Relevancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsby, M.; Lusk, G.

    2017-12-01

    The extent to which climate models can underwrite specific climate policies has long been a contentious issue. Skeptics frequently deny that climate models are trustworthy in an attempt to undermine climate action, whereas policy makers often desire information that exceeds the capabilities of extant models. While not skeptics, a group of mathematicians and philosophers [Frigg et al. (2014)] recently argued that even tiny differences between the structure of a complex dynamical model and its target system can lead to dramatic predictive errors, possibly resulting in disastrous consequences when policy decisions are based upon those predictions. They call this result the Hawkmoth effect (HME), and seemingly use it to rebuke rightwing proposals to forgo mitigation in favor of adaptation. However, a vigorous debate has emerged between Frigg et al. on one side and another philosopher-mathematician pair [Winsberg and Goodwin (2016)] on the other. On one hand, Frigg et al. argue that their result shifts the burden to climate scientists to demonstrate that their models do not fall prey to the HME. On the other hand, Winsberg and Goodwin suggest that arguments like those asserted by Frigg et al. can be, if taken seriously, "dangerous": they fail to consider the variety of purposes for which models can be used, and thus too hastily undermine large swaths of climate science. They put the burden back on Frigg et al. to show their result has any effect on climate science. This paper seeks to attenuate this debate by establishing an irenic middle position; we find that there is more agreement between sides than it first seems. We distinguish a `decision standard' from a `burden of proof', which helps clarify the contributions to the debate from both sides. In making this distinction, we argue that scientists bear the burden of assessing the consequences of HME, but that the standard Frigg et al. adopt for decision relevancy is too strict.

  10. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  11. Preference, resistance to change, and the cumulative decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2018-01-01

    According to behavioral momentum theory (Nevin & Grace, 2000a), preference in concurrent chains and resistance to change in multiple schedules are independent measures of a common construct representing reinforcement history. Here I review the original studies on preference and resistance to change in which reinforcement variables were manipulated parametrically, conducted by Nevin, Grace and colleagues between 1997 and 2002, as well as more recent research. The cumulative decision model proposed by Grace and colleagues for concurrent chains is shown to provide a good account of both preference and resistance to change, and is able to predict the increased sensitivity to reinforcer rate and magnitude observed with constant-duration components. Residuals from fits of the cumulative decision model to preference and resistance to change data were positively correlated, supporting the prediction of behavioral momentum theory. Although some questions remain, the learning process assumed by the cumulative decision model, in which outcomes are compared against a criterion that represents the average outcome value in the current context, may provide a plausible model for the acquisition of differential resistance to change. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  12. The Unsafe Acts and the Decision-to-Err Factors of Thai Construction Workers

    OpenAIRE

    Thanet Aksorn; B.H.W. Hadikusumo

    2007-01-01

    The unsafe acts of workers are considered as major contributors of work-related accidents and injuries on construction sites. However, not much work has been done to address the reasons why unsafe acts of workers occur particularly in construction industry. The aim of this paper therefore, is to investigate the major unsafe acts (i.e., at-risk behavior), and the decision-to-err factors causing unsafe acts. A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data from a total of 214 workers from 2...

  13. An Ethical (Descriptive) Framework for Judgment of Actions and Decisions in the Construction Industry and Engineering-Part I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhatib, Omar J; Abdou, Alaa

    2018-04-01

    The construction industry is usually characterized as a fragmented system of multiple-organizational entities in which members from different technical backgrounds and moral values join together to develop a particular business or project. The greatest challenge in the construction process for the achievement of a successful practice is the development of an outstanding reputation, which is built on identifying and applying an ethical framework. This framework should reflect a common ethical ground for myriad people involved in this process to survive and compete ethically in today's turbulent construction market. This study establishes a framework for ethical judgment of behavior and actions conducted in the construction process. The framework was primarily developed based on the essential attributes of business management identified in the literature review and subsequently incorporates additional attributes identified to prevent breaches in the construction industry and common ethical values related to professional engineering. The proposed judgment framework is based primarily on the ethical dimension of professional responsibility. The Ethical Judgment Framework consists of descriptive approaches involving technical, professional, administrative, and miscellaneous terms. The framework provides the basis for judging actions as either ethical or unethical. Furthermore, the framework can be implemented as a form of preventive ethics, which would help avoid ethical dilemmas and moral allegations. The framework can be considered a decision-making model to guide actions and improve the ethical reasoning process that would help individuals think through possible implications and consequences of ethical dilemmas in the construction industry.

  14. An empirical test of the decision to lie component of the Activation-Decision-Construction-Action Theory (ADCAT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masip, Jaume; Blandón-Gitlin, Iris; de la Riva, Clara; Herrero, Carmen

    2016-09-01

    Meta-analyses reveal that behavioral differences between liars and truth tellers are small. To facilitate lie detection, researchers are currently developing interviewing approaches to increase these differences. Some of these approaches assume that lying is cognitively more difficult than truth telling; however, they are not based on specific cognitive theories of lie production, which are rare. Here we examined one existing theory, Walczyk et al.'s (2014) Activation-Decision-Construction-Action Theory (ADCAT). We tested the Decision component. According to ADCAT, people decide whether to lie or tell the truth as if they were using a specific mathematical formula to calculate the motivation to lie from (a) the probability of a number of outcomes derived from lying vs. telling the truth, and (b) the costs/benefits associated with each outcome. In this study, participants read several hypothetical scenarios and indicated whether they would lie or tell the truth in each scenario (Questionnaire 1). Next, they answered several questions about the consequences of lying vs. telling the truth in each scenario, and rated the probability and valence of each consequence (Questionnaire 2). Significant associations were found between the participants' dichotomous decision to lie/tell the truth in Questionnaire 1 and their motivation to lie scores calculated from the Questionnaire 2 data. However, interestingly, whereas the expected consequences of truth telling were associated with the decision to lie vs. tell the truth, the expected consequences of lying were not. Suggestions are made to refine ADCAT, which can be a useful theoretical framework to guide deception research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. ANFIS multi criteria decision making for overseas construction projects: a methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utama, W. P.; Chan, A. P. C.; Zulherman; Zahoor, H.; Gao, R.; Jumas, D. Y.

    2018-02-01

    A critical part when a company targeting a foreign market is how to make a better decision in connection with potential project selection. Since different attributes of information are often incomplete, imprecise and ill-defined in overseas projects selection, the process of decision making by relying on the experiences and intuition is a risky attitude. This paper aims to demonstrate a decision support method in deciding overseas construction projects (OCPs). An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the amalgamation of Neural Network and Fuzzy Theory, was used as decision support tool to decide to go or not go on OCPs. Root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R) were employed to identify the ANFIS system indicating an optimum and efficient result. The optimum result was obtained from ANFIS network with two input membership functions, Gaussian membership function (gaussmf) and hybrid optimization method. The result shows that ANFIS may help the decision-making process for go/not go decision in OCPs.

  16. Constructing a systems psychodynamic wellness model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanchen Henning

    2012-03-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of the research was to construct and refine the SPWM in order to understand psychological wellness at the individual, group and organisational levels. Motivation for the study: There is no psychological wellness model that integrates the principles of systems psychodynamics and positive psychology. Systems psychodynamics traditionally focuses on so-called negative behaviour whilst positive psychology tends to idealise positive behaviour. This research tried to merge these views in order to apply them to individual, group and organisational behaviour. Research design, approach and method: The researchers used qualitative, descriptive and conceptual research. They conducted an in-depth literature study to construct the model. They then refined it using the LP. Main findings: The researchers identified 39 themes. They categorised them into three different levels. Three first-level themes emerged as the highest level of integration: identity, hope and love. The nine second-level themes each consisted of three more themes. They were less complex and abstract than the first-level themes. The least complex 27 third-level themes followed. Practical/managerial implications: One can apply the SPWM as a qualitative diagnostic tool for understanding individual, group and organisational wellness and for consulting on systemic wellness. Contribution/value-add: The SPWM offers a model for understanding individual, group and organisational wellness and for consulting on systemic wellness.

  17. [Mathematical models of decision making and learning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2008-07-01

    Computational models of reinforcement learning have recently been applied to analysis of brain imaging and neural recording data to identity neural correlates of specific processes of decision making, such as valuation of action candidates and parameters of value learning. However, for such model-based analysis paradigms, selecting an appropriate model is crucial. In this study we analyze the process of choice learning in rats using stochastic rewards. We show that "Q-learning," which is a standard reinforcement learning algorithm, does not adequately reflect the features of choice behaviors. Thus, we propose a generalized reinforcement learning (GRL) algorithm that incorporates the negative reward effect of reward loss and forgetting of values of actions not chosen. Using the Bayesian estimation method for time-varying parameters, we demonstrated that the GRL algorithm can predict an animal's choice behaviors as efficiently as the best Markov model. The results suggest the usefulness of the GRL for the model-based analysis of neural processes involved in decision making.

  18. Modelling and Decision Support of Clinical Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Roland; Lux, Thomas

    The German health care market is under a rapid rate of change, forcing especially hospitals to provide high-quality services at low costs. Appropriate measures for more effective and efficient service provision are process orientation and decision support by information technology of clinical pathway of a patient. The essential requirements are adequate modelling of clinical pathways as well as usage of adequate systems, which are capable of assisting the complete path of a patient within a hospital, and preferably also outside of it, in a digital way. To fulfil these specifications the authors present a suitable concept, which meets the challenges of well-structured clinical pathways as well as rather poorly structured diagnostic and therapeutic decisions, by interplay of process-oriented and knowledge-based hospital information systems.

  19. Spaceborne construction and operations planning - Decision rules for selecting EVA, telerobot, and combined work-systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jeffrey H.

    1992-01-01

    An approach is presented for selecting an appropriate work-system for performing construction and operations tasks by humans and telerobots. The decision to use extravehicular activity (EVA) performed by astronauts, extravehicular robotics (EVR), or a combination of EVA and EVR is determined by the ratio of the marginal costs of EVA, EVR, and IVA. The approach proposed here is useful for examining cost trade-offs between tasks and performing trade studies of task improvement techniques (human or telerobotic).

  20. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  1. Perceptions of disease risk: from social construction of subjective judgments to rational decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRoberts, N; Hall, C; Madden, L V; Hughes, G

    2011-06-01

    Many factors influence how people form risk perceptions. Farmers' perceptions of risk and levels of risk aversion impact on decision-making about such things as technology adoption and disease management practices. Irrespective of the underlying factors that affect risk perceptions, those perceptions can be summarized by variables capturing impact and uncertainty components of risk. We discuss a new framework that has the subjective probability of disease and the cost of decision errors as its central features, which might allow a better integration of social science and epidemiology, to the benefit of plant disease management. By focusing on the probability and cost (or impact) dimensions of risk, the framework integrates research from the social sciences, economics, decision theory, and epidemiology. In particular, we review some useful properties of expected regret and skill value, two measures of expected cost that are particularly useful in the evaluation of decision tools. We highlight decision-theoretic constraints on the usefulness of decision tools that may partly explain cases of failure of adoption. We extend this analysis by considering information-theoretic criteria that link model complexity and relative performance and which might explain why users reject forecasters that impose even moderate increases in the complexity of decision making despite improvements in performance or accept very simple decision tools that have relatively poor performance.

  2. A dynamic dual process model of risky decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diederich, Adele; Trueblood, Jennifer S

    2018-03-01

    Many phenomena in judgment and decision making are often attributed to the interaction of 2 systems of reasoning. Although these so-called dual process theories can explain many types of behavior, they are rarely formalized as mathematical or computational models. Rather, dual process models are typically verbal theories, which are difficult to conclusively evaluate or test. In the cases in which formal (i.e., mathematical) dual process models have been proposed, they have not been quantitatively fit to experimental data and are often silent when it comes to the timing of the 2 systems. In the current article, we present a dynamic dual process model framework of risky decision making that provides an account of the timing and interaction of the 2 systems and can explain both choice and response-time data. We outline several predictions of the model, including how changes in the timing of the 2 systems as well as time pressure can influence behavior. The framework also allows us to explore different assumptions about how preferences are constructed by the 2 systems as well as the dynamic interaction of the 2 systems. In particular, we examine 3 different possible functional forms of the 2 systems and 2 possible ways the systems can interact (simultaneously or serially). We compare these dual process models with 2 single process models using risky decision making data from Guo, Trueblood, and Diederich (2017). Using this data, we find that 1 of the dual process models significantly outperforms the other models in accounting for both choices and response times. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Life Cycle Assessment and Optimization-Based Decision Analysis of Construction Waste Recycling for a LEED-Certified University Building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Kucukvar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The current waste management literature lacks a comprehensive LCA of the recycling of construction materials that considers both process and supply chain-related impacts as a whole. Furthermore, an optimization-based decision support framework has not been also addressed in any work, which provides a quantifiable understanding about the potential savings and implications associated with recycling of construction materials from a life cycle perspective. The aim of this research is to present a multi-criteria optimization model, which is developed to propose economically-sound and environmentally-benign construction waste management strategies for a LEED-certified university building. First, an economic input-output-based hybrid life cycle assessment model is built to quantify the total environmental impacts of various waste management options: recycling, conventional landfilling and incineration. After quantifying the net environmental pressures associated with these waste treatment alternatives, a compromise programming model is utilized to determine the optimal recycling strategy considering environmental and economic impacts, simultaneously. The analysis results show that recycling of ferrous and non-ferrous metals significantly contributed to reductions in the total carbon footprint of waste management. On the other hand, recycling of asphalt and concrete increased the overall carbon footprint due to high fuel consumption and emissions during the crushing process. Based on the multi-criteria optimization results, 100% recycling of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, cardboard, plastic and glass is suggested to maximize the environmental and economic savings, simultaneously. We believe that the results of this research will facilitate better decision making in treating construction and debris waste for LEED-certified green buildings by combining the results of environmental LCA with multi-objective optimization modeling.

  4. Assessing electronic health record systems in emergency departments: Using a decision analytic Bayesian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Assuli, Ofir; Leshno, Moshe

    2016-09-01

    In the last decade, health providers have implemented information systems to improve accuracy in medical diagnosis and decision-making. This article evaluates the impact of an electronic health record on emergency department physicians' diagnosis and admission decisions. A decision analytic approach using a decision tree was constructed to model the admission decision process to assess the added value of medical information retrieved from the electronic health record. Using a Bayesian statistical model, this method was evaluated on two coronary artery disease scenarios. The results show that the cases of coronary artery disease were better diagnosed when the electronic health record was consulted and led to more informed admission decisions. Furthermore, the value of medical information required for a specific admission decision in emergency departments could be quantified. The findings support the notion that physicians and patient healthcare can benefit from implementing electronic health record systems in emergency departments. © The Author(s) 2015.

  5. The Unsafe Acts and the Decision-to-Err Factors of Thai Construction Workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanet Aksorn

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The unsafe acts of workers are considered as major contributors of work-related accidents and injuries on construction sites. However, not much work has been done to address the reasons why unsafe acts of workers occur particularly in construction industry. The aim of this paper therefore, is to investigate the major unsafe acts (i.e., at-risk behavior, and the decision-to-err factors causing unsafe acts. A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data from a total of 214 workers from 20 building construction projects in Thailand. The findings revealed that the failure of workers to wear personal protective equipment (PPE, improper lifting or handling of materials, and keeping sharp objects in dangerous locations, are the major unsafe acts which frequently occur on construction sites in Thailand. In addition, the paper reported that the top three most frequent unsafe acts are statistically associated with several decision-to-err factors, including lack of management support, management pressure, group norms, overconfidence, being uncomfortable, past experience and laziness.

  6. Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2014-01-01

    The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

  7. Empirically evaluating decision-analytic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Stout, Natasha K; Goldie, Sue J

    2010-08-01

    Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses support decision-making. To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. We developed a structured reporting format for model evaluation and conducted a structured literature review to characterize current model evaluation recommendations and practices. As an illustration, we applied the reporting format to evaluate a microsimulation of human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. The model's outputs and uncertainty ranges were compared with multiple outcomes from a study of long-term progression from high-grade precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN]) to cancer. Outcomes included 5 to 30-year cumulative cancer risk among women with and without appropriate CIN treatment. Consistency was measured by model ranges overlapping study confidence intervals. The structured reporting format included: matching baseline characteristics and follow-up, reporting model and study uncertainty, and stating metrics of consistency for model and study results. Structured searches yielded 2963 articles with 67 meeting inclusion criteria and found variation in how current model evaluations are reported. Evaluation of the cervical cancer microsimulation, reported using the proposed format, showed a modeled cumulative risk of invasive cancer for inadequately treated women of 39.6% (30.9-49.7) at 30 years, compared with the study: 37.5% (28.4-48.3). For appropriately treated women, modeled risks were 1.0% (0.7-1.3) at 30 years, study: 1.5% (0.4-3.3). To support external and projective validity, cost-effectiveness models should be iteratively evaluated as new studies become available, with reporting standardized to facilitate assessment. Such evaluations are particularly relevant for models used to conduct comparative effectiveness analyses.

  8. Integrating a Decision Management Tool with UML Modeling Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    by proposing potential subsequent design issues. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, these decisions are typically not connected to the models created during...... integration of formerly disconnected tools improves tool usability as well as decision maker productivity....

  9. The two-model problem in rational decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boumans, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    A model of a decision problem frames that problem in three dimensions: sample space, target probability and information structure. Each specific model imposes a specific rational decision. As a result, different models may impose different, even contradictory, rational decisions, creating choice

  10. Constructing Agent Model for Virtual Training Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Yohei; Sugimoto, Yuki; Ishida, Toru

    Constructing highly realistic agents is essential if agents are to be employed in virtual training systems. In training for collaboration based on face-to-face interaction, the generation of emotional expressions is one key. In training for guidance based on one-to-many interaction such as direction giving for evacuations, emotional expressions must be supplemented by diverse agent behaviors to make the training realistic. To reproduce diverse behavior, we characterize agents by using a various combinations of operation rules instantiated by the user operating the agent. To accomplish this goal, we introduce a user modeling method based on participatory simulations. These simulations enable us to acquire information observed by each user in the simulation and the operating history. Using these data and the domain knowledge including known operation rules, we can generate an explanation for each behavior. Moreover, the application of hypothetical reasoning, which offers consistent selection of hypotheses, to the generation of explanations allows us to use otherwise incompatible operation rules as domain knowledge. In order to validate the proposed modeling method, we apply it to the acquisition of an evacuee's model in a fire-drill experiment. We successfully acquire a subject's model corresponding to the results of an interview with the subject.

  11. Maturity and maturity models in lean construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claus Nesensohn

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been an increasing interest in maturity models in management-related disciplines; which reflects a growing recognition that becoming more mature and having a model to guide the route to maturity can help organisations in managing major transformational change. Lean Construction (LC is an increasingly important improvement approach that organisations seek to embed. This study explores how to apply the maturity models to LC. Hence the attitudes, opinions and experiences of key industry informants with high levels of knowledge of LC were investigated. To achieve this, a review of maturity models was conducted, and data for the analysis was collected through a sequential process involving three methods. First a group interview with seven key informants. Second a follow up discussion with the same individuals to investigate some of the issues raised in more depth. Third an online discussion held via LinkedIn in which members shared their views on some of the results. Overall, we found that there is a lack of common understanding as to what maturity means in LC, though there is general agreement that the concept of maturity is a suitable one to reflect the path of evolution for LC within organisations.

  12. Aggregated systems model for nuclear safeguards decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-03-01

    This report summarizes a general analytical tool designed to assist nuclear safeguards decision-makers. The approach is based on decision analysis--a quantitative procedure for evaluating complex decision alternatives with uncertain outcomes. The report describes the general analytical approach in the context of safeguards decisions at a hypothetical nuclear fuel reprocessing plant

  13. Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

    2006-01-01

    In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

  14. 874 CONSTRUCTION COST MODELS FOR HIGHRISE OFFICE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2015-10-28

    Oct 28, 2015 ... will not only reduce the stress on estimators but also enhance the accuracy of cost estimates. The resulting 11 ... cost estimating process to work together to ..... construction estimators in Hong. Kong. Construction Management.

  15. Towards a Unified Business Model Vocabulary: A Proposition of Key Constructs

    OpenAIRE

    Mettler, Tobias

    2014-01-01

    The design of business models is of decisive importance and as such it has been a major research theme in service and particularly electronic markets. Today, different definitions of the term and ideas of core constructs of business models exist. In this paper we present a unified vocabulary for business models that builds upon the elementary perception of three existing, yet very dissimilar ontologies for modeling the essence of a business. The resulting unified business model vocabulary not...

  16. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2016-01-01

    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  17. Constructive Empiricism and Model Nominalism. | Udokang | Sophia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    James Ladyman has argued that constructive empiricism entails modal realism, and that this renders constructive empiricism untenable. We maintain that constructive empiricism is compatible with modal nominalism. Although the central term “observable” has been analyzed in terms of counterfactuals, and in general ...

  18. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F.; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159–182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of

  19. Constructions of accountability in child protection workers decision-making processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrøder, Ida Marie

    2014-01-01

    collected from three Danish local governments and consists of 24 qualitative interviews with child protection workers, leaders and economic consultants, 12 observations of team meetings and a quantitative survey of 150 cases. The study ends summer 2014 and the results of the research will be utilized...... construction of accountability as relational effects of these new forms of accounting practice. The paper draws on the preliminary results from a 2 ½ year mixed method study of how budgeting and accounting practice influences the processes of decision-making in child protection work. The data has been...... systems – such as setting standards or deciding on the delegation of decision-making authority. Using Actor-network theory as a methodological and analytical approach, it furthermore becomes clear how the types of accountability are enacted as effects, not only by the technologies offered to support...

  20. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  1. Making decision process knowledge explicit using the product data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petrusel, R.; Vanderfeesten, I.T.P.; Dolean, Cristina; Mican, D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new knowledge acquisition and formalization method: the decision mining approach. Basically, we aim to produce a model of the workflow of mental actions performed by decision makers during the decision process. We show that through the use of a Product Data Model (PDM) we

  2. Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischoff, Baruch; And Others

    1981-01-01

    Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

  3. A dynamic Bayesian network based approach to safety decision support in tunnel construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Xianguo; Liu, Huitao; Zhang, Limao; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Deng, Qianli; Teng, Jiaying

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision approach with step-by-step procedures based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), aiming to provide guidelines for dynamic safety analysis of the tunnel-induced road surface damage over time. The proposed DBN-based approach can accurately illustrate the dynamic and updated feature of geological, design and mechanical variables as the construction progress evolves, in order to overcome deficiencies of traditional fault analysis methods. Adopting the predictive, sensitivity and diagnostic analysis techniques in the DBN inference, this approach is able to perform feed-forward, concurrent and back-forward control respectively on a quantitative basis, and provide real-time support before and after an accident. A case study in relating to dynamic safety analysis in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is used to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, as well as its application potential. The relationships between the DBN-based and BN-based approaches are further discussed according to analysis results. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety analysis in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a dynamic project environment. - Highlights: • A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) based approach for safety decision support is developed. • This approach is able to perform feed-forward, concurrent and back-forward analysis and control. • A case concerning dynamic safety analysis in Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented. • DBN-based approach can perform a higher accuracy than traditional static BN-based approach

  4. Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hargrave, C; Deegan, T; Gibbs, A; Poulsen, M; Moores, M; Harden, F; Mengersen, K

    2014-01-01

    A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific subregions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

  5. Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargrave, C.; Moores, M.; Deegan, T.; Gibbs, A.; Poulsen, M.; Harden, F.; Mengersen, K.

    2014-03-01

    A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific subregions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

  6. A model of reward- and effort-based optimal decision making and motor control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lionel Rigoux

    Full Text Available Costs (e.g. energetic expenditure and benefits (e.g. food are central determinants of behavior. In ecology and economics, they are combined to form a utility function which is maximized to guide choices. This principle is widely used in neuroscience as a normative model of decision and action, but current versions of this model fail to consider how decisions are actually converted into actions (i.e. the formation of trajectories. Here, we describe an approach where decision making and motor control are optimal, iterative processes derived from the maximization of the discounted, weighted difference between expected rewards and foreseeable motor efforts. The model accounts for decision making in cost/benefit situations, and detailed characteristics of control and goal tracking in realistic motor tasks. As a normative construction, the model is relevant to address the neural bases and pathological aspects of decision making and motor control.

  7. The Study on the Fault decision and Alarm Hierarchy Construction of NMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B.K.; Oh, M.K.; Jang, M.J. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    This report is published as final report of the project {sup T}he Study on the Fault decision and Alarm Hierarchy Construction of NMS(95Y-J21){sup ,} which is collaborated by KEPRI and KERI from 95.5. to 97.5. In this project, we developed RNMS(Regional Network Management System) supervising 90Mbps Optical Terminal Equipment which occupies the great parts of Regional Network. It has the function of fault-detection, information search, statistical analysis and real-time graphical display of the network operation. That will contribute to the better quality of the TN. (author). 45 refs., 56 figs., 38 tabs.

  8. Modelling group decision simulation through argumentation

    OpenAIRE

    Marreiros, Goreti; Novais, Paulo; Machado, José; Ramos, Carlos; Neves, José

    2007-01-01

    Group decision making plays an important role in today’s organisations. The impact of decision making is so high and complex, that rarely the decision making process is made individually. In Group Decision Argumentation, there is a set of participants, with different profiles and expertise levels, that exchange ideas or engage in a process of argumentation and counter-argumentation, negotiate, cooperate, collaborate or even discuss techniques and/or methodologies for problem solving. In this ...

  9. The Limitations of Applying Rational Decision-Making Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    decision-making models as applied to child spacing and more. specificaDy to the use .... also assumes that the individual operates as a rational decision- making organism in ..... work involves: Motivation; Counselling; Distribution ofIEC mate-.

  10. Bidding Strategy to Support Decision-Making Based on Comprehensive Information in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ru Liang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a unified method to support contractor for bidding selection in construction projects. A cross-functional contractor with 28 candidate units distributed in the three departments (construction units, design units, and suppliers is used as an example. This problem is first formulated as a 0-1 quadratic programming problem through optimizing individual performance and collaborative performance of the candidate units based on individual information and collaborative information. Then, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm is designed to solve this problem and a bidding selection problem for a major bridge project is used to demonstrate our proposed method. The results show that the decision-maker (DM obtains a better contractor if he pays more attention to collaborative performance.

  11. Model Tests on the Retaining Walls Constructed from Geobags Filled with Construction Waste

    OpenAIRE

    Wen, Hua; Wu, Jiu-jiang; Zou, Jiao-li; Luo, Xin; Zhang, Min; Gu, Chengzhuang

    2016-01-01

    Geobag retaining wall using construction waste is a new flexible supporting structure, and the usage of construction waste to fill geobags can facilitate the construction recycling. In this paper, model tests were performed on geobag retaining wall using construction waste. The investigation was concentrated on the slope top settlement, the distribution characteristics of the earth pressures on retaining walls and horizontal wall displacements, and slope failure modes. The results indicated t...

  12. Modeling decisions information fusion and aggregation operators

    CERN Document Server

    Torra, Vicenc

    2007-01-01

    Information fusion techniques and aggregation operators produce the most comprehensive, specific datum about an entity using data supplied from different sources, thus enabling us to reduce noise, increase accuracy, summarize and extract information, and make decisions. These techniques are applied in fields such as economics, biology and education, while in computer science they are particularly used in fields such as knowledge-based systems, robotics, and data mining. This book covers the underlying science and application issues related to aggregation operators, focusing on tools used in practical applications that involve numerical information. Starting with detailed introductions to information fusion and integration, measurement and probability theory, fuzzy sets, and functional equations, the authors then cover the following topics in detail: synthesis of judgements, fuzzy measures, weighted means and fuzzy integrals, indices and evaluation methods, model selection, and parameter extraction. The method...

  13. Potential and Benefits of Building Information Modeling (BIM During Pre-Construction, Construction and Post Construction Stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aw Nien Wei

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is the main economic support for all countries around the world in which continually adapting to meet competitive challenges around the global market. Nevertheless, the construction project is becoming much more complex and difficult to manage. This is because the construction project involves a large number of stakeholder, for example, the consultant companies, architects, engineers, building surveyors and quantity surveyors. The technology currently used in the construction industry is the AutoCAD (Automatic computeraided design. AutoCAD is a commercial software application for 2D and 3D computer-aided design (CAD and drafting develop by Autodesk. Generally, all the drawing design from Autocad will be exchanged among the stakeholder in the form of paper. Information exchanged among them mostly involves a lot of documents and drawings. This practice creates errors because of documents and drawings are mostly in a paper-based format that is not properly managed which results in miscommunication among them. Having wrong information in the construction process could hinder the productivity of projects because in a construction project information is one of the important construction materials. Building Information Modeling (BIM is one of the newly software in the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC industries to ensure all parties receive the right information. BIM technology is also an intelligent model of a building constructed digitally in the way of 3D. The software will generate model containing the information needed to support the construction, fabrication, and procurement activities that needed to realize the building. This paper will discuss on potential and benefits of BIM during pre-construction stage, construction stage and during post construction stage

  14. A New Dynamic Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach for Green Supplier Selection in Construction Projects under Time Sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi Yin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, due to the lack of natural resources and environment problems which have been appearing increasingly, green building is more and more involved in the construction industry. The evaluation and selection of green supplier are a significant part of the development of green building. In this paper, we propose a new dynamic multicriteria decision-making approach in construction projects under time sequence to deal with these problems. First, the paper establishes 4 main criteria and 17 subcriteria for green supplier selection in construction projects. Then, a method considering interaction between criteria and the influence of constructors subjective preference and objective criteria information is proposed. It uses the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy geometric weighted Heronian means (IVIFGWHM operator and multitarget nonlinear programming model to calculate the comprehensive evaluation results of potential green suppliers. The proposed method is much easier for constructors to select green supplier and make the localization of green supplier more practical and accurate in construction projects. Finally, a case study about a green building project is given to verify practicality and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  15. Models of sequential decision making in consumer lending

    OpenAIRE

    Kanshukan Rajaratnam; Peter A. Beling; George A. Overstreet

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we introduce models of sequential decision making in consumer lending. From the definition of adverse selection in static lending models, we show that homogenous borrowers take-up offers at different instances of time when faced with a sequence of loan offers. We postulate that bounded rationality and diverse decision heuristics used by consumers drive the decisions they make about credit offers. Under that postulate, we show how observation of early decisions in a seq...

  16. A conceptual model of the role of communication in surrogate decision making for hospitalized adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torke, Alexia M; Petronio, Sandra; Sachs, Greg A; Helft, Paul R; Purnell, Christianna

    2012-04-01

    To build a conceptual model of the role of communication in decision making, based on literature from medicine, communication studies and medical ethics. We proposed a model and described each construct in detail. We review what is known about interpersonal and patient-physician communication, described literature about surrogate-clinician communication, and discussed implications for our developing model. The communication literature proposes two major elements of interpersonal communication: information processing and relationship building. These elements are composed of constructs such as information disclosure and emotional support that are likely to be relevant to decision making. We propose these elements of communication impact decision making, which in turn affects outcomes for both patients and surrogates. Decision making quality may also mediate the relationship between communication and outcomes. Although many elements of the model have been studied in relation to patient-clinician communication, there is limited data about surrogate decision making. There is evidence of high surrogate distress associated with decision making that may be alleviated by communication-focused interventions. More research is needed to test the relationships proposed in the model. Good communication with surrogates may improve both the quality of medical decisions and outcomes for the patient and surrogate. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

    2015-06-01

    Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A diagrammatic construction of formal E-independent model hamiltonian

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvasnicka, V.

    1977-01-01

    A diagrammatic construction of formal E-independent model interaction (i.e., without second-quantization formalism) is suggested. The construction starts from the quasi-degenerate Brillouin-Wigner perturbation theory, in the framework of which an E-dependent model Hamiltonian is simply constructed. Applying the ''E-removing'' procedure to this E-dependent model Hamiltonian, the E-independent formal model Hamiltonian either Hermitian or non-Hermitian can diagrammatically be easily derived. For the formal E-independent model Hamiltonian the separability theorem is proved, which can be profitably used for a rather ''formalistic ''construction of a many-body E-independent model Hamiltonian

  19. Mock Pages Are a Valid Construct for Assessment of Clinical Decision Making and Interprofessional Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boehler, Margaret L; Schwind, Cathy J; Markwell, Stephen J; Minter, Rebecca M

    2017-01-01

    Answering pages from nurses about patients in need of immediate attention is one of the most difficult challenges a resident faces during their first days as a physician. A Mock Page program has been developed and adopted into a national surgical resident preparatory curriculum to prepare senior medical students for this important skill. The purpose of this study is to assess standardized mock page cases as a valid construct to assess clinical decision making and interprofessional communication skills. Mock page cases (n = 16) were administered to 213 senior medical students from 12 medical schools participating in a national surgical resident preparatory curriculum in 2013 and 2014. Clinical decision making and interprofessional communication were measured by case-specific assessments evaluating these skills which have undergone rigorous standard-setting to determine pass/fail cut points. Students' performance improved in general for both communication and clinical decision making over the 4-week course. Cases have been identified that seem to be best suited for differentiating high- from low-performing students. Chest pain, pulmonary embolus, and mental status change cases posed the greatest difficulty for student learners. Simulated mock pages demonstrate an innovative technique for training students in both effective interprofessional communication and management of common postoperative conditions they will encounter as new surgical interns.

  20. A conceptual model for developing KPIs for early phases of the construction process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haponava, T.; Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.; Mawdesley, M.; Ahmed, Syed M.; Azhar, Salman; Mohamed, Sherif

    2007-01-01

    The pre-project stage in construction is where most of the decisions about project investment and development are taken. It is therefore very important to be able to control and influence the process at the very beginning of the project. This paper proposes a model for developing a set of KPIs for

  1. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  2. Elaboration of technology organizational models of constructing high-rise buildings in plans of construction organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osipenkova, Irina; Simankina, Tatyana; Syrygina, Taisiia; Lukinov, Vitaliy

    2018-03-01

    This article represents features of the elaboration of technology organizational models of high-rise building construction in technology organizational documentation on the example of the plan of construction organization. Some examples of enhancing the effectiveness of high-rise building construction based on developments of several options of the organizational and technological plan are examined. Qualitative technology organizational documentation allows to increase the competitiveness of construction companies and provides prime cost of construction and assembly works reductions. Emphasis is placed on the necessity to comply with the principle of comprehensiveness of engineering, scientific and research works, development activities and scientific and technical support.

  3. FUZZY DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR BYZANTINE AGREEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. MURUGAN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.

  4. Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Adi Tri Joko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD. System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate the model, 93 construction workers whom worked in a high rise building construction projects, were used as case study. The result shows that excessive workload, working elevation and age, are the main factors lead to construction worker fatigue. Simulation result also shows that these factors can increase worker fatigue level to 21.2% times compared to normal condition. Beside predicting worker fatigue level this model can also be used as early warning system to prevent construction worker accident

  5. Processing Technology Selection for Municipal Sewage Treatment Based on a Multi-Objective Decision Model under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xudong Chen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This study considers the two factors of environmental protection and economic benefits to address municipal sewage treatment. Based on considerations regarding the sewage treatment plant construction site, processing technology, capital investment, operation costs, water pollutant emissions, water quality and other indicators, we establish a general multi-objective decision model for optimizing municipal sewage treatment plant construction. Using the construction of a sewage treatment plant in a suburb of Chengdu as an example, this paper tests the general model of multi-objective decision-making for the sewage treatment plant construction by implementing a genetic algorithm. The results show the applicability and effectiveness of the multi-objective decision model for the sewage treatment plant. This paper provides decision and technical support for the optimization of municipal sewage treatment.

  6. Processing Technology Selection for Municipal Sewage Treatment Based on a Multi-Objective Decision Model under Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xudong; Xu, Zhongwen; Yao, Liming; Ma, Ning

    2018-03-05

    This study considers the two factors of environmental protection and economic benefits to address municipal sewage treatment. Based on considerations regarding the sewage treatment plant construction site, processing technology, capital investment, operation costs, water pollutant emissions, water quality and other indicators, we establish a general multi-objective decision model for optimizing municipal sewage treatment plant construction. Using the construction of a sewage treatment plant in a suburb of Chengdu as an example, this paper tests the general model of multi-objective decision-making for the sewage treatment plant construction by implementing a genetic algorithm. The results show the applicability and effectiveness of the multi-objective decision model for the sewage treatment plant. This paper provides decision and technical support for the optimization of municipal sewage treatment.

  7. A generic methodology for developing fuzzy decision models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosma, R.H.; Berg, van den J.; Kaymak, Uzay; Udo, H.M.J.; Verreth, J.A.J.

    2012-01-01

    An important paradigm in decision-making models is utility-maximization where most models do not include actors’ motives. Fuzzy set theory on the other hand offers a method to simulate human decision-making. However, the literature describing expert-driven fuzzy logic models, rarely gives precise

  8. Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  9. Simulation Models of Human Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina RIZUN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is presentation of the new concept of human decision-making process modeling via using the analogy with Automatic Control Theory. From the author's point of view this concept allows to develop and improve the theory of decision-making in terms of the study and classification of specificity of the human intellectual processes in different conditions. It was proved that the main distinguishing feature between the Heuristic / Intuitive and Rational Decision-Making Models is the presence of so-called phenomenon of "enrichment" of the input information with human propensity, hobbies, tendencies, expectations, axioms and judgments, presumptions or bias and their justification. In order to obtain additional knowledge about the basic intellectual processes as well as the possibility of modeling the decision results in various parameters characterizing the decision-maker, the complex of the simulation models was developed. These models are based on the assumptions that:  basic intellectual processes of the Rational Decision-Making Model can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the proportional-integral-derivative controller; basic intellectual processes of the Bounded Rationality and Intuitive Models can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the nonlinear elements.The taxonomy of the most typical automatic control theory elements and their compliance with certain decision-making models with a point of view of decision-making process specificity and decision-maker behavior during a certain time of professional activity was obtained.

  10. Product models for the Construction industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt

    1996-01-01

    Different types of product models for the building sector was elaborated and grouped. Some discussion on the different models was given. The "definition" of Product models was given.......Different types of product models for the building sector was elaborated and grouped. Some discussion on the different models was given. The "definition" of Product models was given....

  11. Construction project investment control model based on instant information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xue-tong

    2006-01-01

    Change of construction conditions always influences project investment by causing the loss of construction work time and extending the duration. To resolve such problem as difficult dynamic control in work construction plan, this article presents a concept of instant optimization by ways of adjustment operation time of each working procedure to minimize investment change. Based on this concept, its mathematical model is established and a strict mathematical justification is performed. An instant optimization model takes advantage of instant information in the construction process to duly complete adjustment of construction; thus we maximize cost efficiency of project investment.

  12. [Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

    2014-10-01

    Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  13. Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic

    OpenAIRE

    Wahyu Adi Tri Joko; Ayu Ratnawinanda Lila

    2017-01-01

    Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD). System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate...

  14. A Solution Generator Algorithm for Decision Making based Automated Negotiation in the Construction Domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arazi Idrus

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present our work-in-progress of a proposed framework for automated negotiation in the construction domain. The proposed framework enables software agents to conduct negotiations and autonomously make value-based decisions. The framework consists of three main components which are, solution generator algorithm, negotiation algorithm, and conflict resolution algorithm. This paper extends the discussion on the solution generator algorithm that enables software agents to generate solutions and rank them from 1st to nth solution for the negotiation stage of the operation. The solution generator algorithm consists of three steps which are, review solutions, rank solutions, and form ranked solutions. For validation purpose, we present a scenario that utilizes the proposed algorithm to rank solutions. The validation shows that the algorithm is promising, however, it also highlights the conflict between different parties that needs further negotiation action.

  15. [Social participation in mental health: space of construction of citizenship, policy formulation and decision making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães, José Maria Ximenes; Jorge, Maria Salete Bessa; Maia, Regina Claudia Furtado; de Oliveira, Lucia Conde; Morais, Ana Patrícia Pereira; Lima, Marcos Paulo de Oliveira; Assis, Marluce Maria Araújo; dos Santos, Adriano Maia

    2010-07-01

    The article approaches the comprehension of professionals that act in the mental health area about the movement of construction of social participation in the health system of Fortaleza, Ceará State. The methodology adopted is based upon qualitative approach. The study was developed with semi-structured interviews with 17 mental health professionals of the city above mentioned. The empirical data was analyzed through the technique of thematic content analysis, where it was identified three cores of analysis: social participation as space of citizenship and policy formulation; oriented to attention of collective needs; and decision taking. The study reveals that social participation represents a possibility of amplifying X the relations between the Civil Society and the State, which makes possible the social intervention in proposals of the health policies. It is highlighted the right to health linked to the consolidation of democracy in the attention to the needs and collective edification.

  16. Developing a Decision Model of Sustainable Product Design and Development from Product Servicizing in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yu-Chen; Tu, Jui-Che; Hung, So-Jeng

    2016-01-01

    In response to the global trend of low carbon and the concept of sustainable development, enterprises need to develop R&D for the manufacturing of energy-saving and sustainable products and low carbon products. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to construct a decision model for sustainable product design and development from product…

  17. A Layered Decision Model for Cost-Effective System Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Huaqiang; Alves-Foss, James; Soule, Terry; Pforsich, Hugh; Zhang, Du; Frincke, Deborah A.

    2008-10-01

    System security involves decisions in at least three areas: identification of well-defined security policies, selection of cost-effective defence strategies, and implementation of real-time defence tactics. Although choices made in each of these areas affect the others, existing decision models typically handle these three decision areas in isolation. There is no comprehensive tool that can integrate them to provide a single efficient model for safeguarding a network. In addition, there is no clear way to determine which particular combinations of defence decisions result in cost-effective solutions. To address these problems, this paper introduces a Layered Decision Model (LDM) for use in deciding how to address defence decisions based on their cost-effectiveness. To validate the LDM and illustrate how it is used, we used simulation to test model rationality and applied the LDM to the design of system security for an e-commercial business case.

  18. Modelling verb selection within argument structure constructions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matusevych, Yevgen; Alishahi, Afra; Backus, Albert

    2017-01-01

    This article looks into the nature of cognitive associations between verbs and argument structure constructions (ASCs). Existing research has shown that distributional and semantic factors affect speakers' choice of verbs in ASCs. A formal account of this theory has been proposed by Ellis,

  19. DIAMOND: A model of incremental decision making for resource acquisition by electric utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gettings, M.; Hirst, E.; Yourstone, E.

    1991-02-01

    Uncertainty is a major issue facing electric utilities in planning and decision making. Substantial uncertainties exist concerning future load growth; the lifetimes and performances of existing power plants; the construction times, costs, and performances of new resources being brought online; and the regulatory and economic environment in which utilities operate. This report describes a utility planning model that focuses on frequent and incremental decisions. The key features of this model are its explicit treatment of uncertainty, frequent user interaction with the model, and the ability to change prior decisions. The primary strength of this model is its representation of the planning and decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, canceled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side management programs can be changed from year to year, reflecting the short lead time and small unit size of these resources. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources. The model is called DIAMOND, Decision Impact Assessment Model. In consists of four submodels: FUTURES, FORECAST, SIMULATION, and DECISION. It runs on any IBM-compatible PC and requires no special software or hardware. 19 refs., 13 figs., 15 tabs.

  20. Modeling Based Decision Support Environment, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Phoenix Integration's vision is the creation of an intuitive human-in-the-loop engineering environment called Decision Navigator that leverages recent advances in...

  1. A cooperative model of decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armour, A.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper will describe an experiment aimed at increasing the social responsiveness of planning and decision processes. It involves an on-going effort by the canadian federal government to site a facility to manage low level radioactive wastes

  2. Generative Agents for Player Decision Modeling in Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer; Liapis, Antonios; Togelius, Julian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a method for modeling player decision making through the use of agents as AI-driven personas. The paper argues that artificial agents, as generative player models, have properties that allow them to be used as psyhometrically valid, abstract simulations of a human player......’s internal decision making processes. Such agents can then be used to interpret human decision making, as personas and playtesting tools in the game design process, as baselines for adapting agents to mimic classes of human players, or as believable, human-like opponents. This argument is explored...... in a crowdsourced decision making experiment, in which the decisions of human players are recorded in a small-scale dungeon themed puzzle game. Human decisions are compared to the decisions of a number of a priori defined “archetypical” agent-personas, and the humans are characterized by their likeness...

  3. MARKET EVALUATION MODEL: TOOL FORBUSINESS DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Porlles Loarte, José; Yenque Dedios, Julio; Lavado Soto, Aurelio

    2014-01-01

    In the present work the concepts of potential market and global market are analyzed as the basis for strategic decisions of market with long term perspectives, when the implantation of a business in certain geographic area is evaluated. On this conceptual frame, the methodological tool is proposed to evaluate a commercial decision, for which it is taken as reference the case from the brewing industry in Peru, considering that this industry faces in the region entrepreneurial reorderings withi...

  4. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  5. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khrennikova, Polina [School of Management, University of Leicester, University Road Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-18

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schroedinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schroedinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  6. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-01-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  7. A web-based Decision Support System for the optimal management of construction and demolition waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banias, G; Achillas, Ch; Vlachokostas, Ch; Moussiopoulos, N; Papaioannou, I

    2011-12-01

    Wastes from construction activities constitute nowadays the largest by quantity fraction of solid wastes in urban areas. In addition, it is widely accepted that the particular waste stream contains hazardous materials, such as insulating materials, plastic frames of doors, windows, etc. Their uncontrolled disposal result to long-term pollution costs, resource overuse and wasted energy. Within the framework of the DEWAM project, a web-based Decision Support System (DSS) application - namely DeconRCM - has been developed, aiming towards the identification of the optimal construction and demolition waste (CDW) management strategy that minimises end-of-life costs and maximises the recovery of salvaged building materials. This paper addresses both technical and functional structure of the developed web-based application. The web-based DSS provides an accurate estimation of the generated CDW quantities of twenty-one different waste streams (e.g. concrete, bricks, glass, etc.) for four different types of buildings (residential, office, commercial and industrial). With the use of mathematical programming, the DeconRCM provides also the user with the optimal end-of-life management alternative, taking into consideration both economic and environmental criteria. The DSS's capabilities are illustrated through a real world case study of a typical five floor apartment building in Thessaloniki, Greece. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Supporting Formulary Decisions: The Discovery of New Facts or Constructed Evidence?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul C Langley

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A critical question, given the growing importance of more targeted therapies to support personalized and precision medicine, is the credibility of the evidence base to support formulary decisions and pricing. On the one hand, for those who subscribe to the reference case model of the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE in the UK, the decision rests upon the creation of modeled or simulated imaginary worlds and the application of threshold willingness-to-pay cost-per-QALY thresholds. On the other hand, for those who subscribe to the standards of normal science, the decision rests upon the ability to evaluate competing claims, both clinical and cost-effective, in a timeframe that is meaningful to a formulary committee. If we subscribe to the scientific method where the focus is on the discovery of new facts, untestable claims for clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness, such as created claims for lifetime cost per-quality-adjusted discounted life years (QALYs, are properly relegated to the category of pseudoscience. We have no idea, and will never know, whether the claims are right or even if they are wrong. If formulary decisions are to respect the standards of normal science then there has to be a commitment to claims evaluation. A willingness to accept new products provisionally, subject to an agreed protocol to support the evaluation of clinical and cost-effectiveness claims. This dichotomy between the standards of normal science and pseudoscience is explored in the context of published claims for cost-effectiveness and recommendations for product pricing in the US.   Type: Commentary

  9. A Model for Evidence Accumulation in the Lexical Decision Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Steyvers, Mark; Raaijmakers, Jeroen G. W.; Shiffrin, Richard M.; van Rijn, Hedderik; Zeelenberg, Rene

    2004-01-01

    We present a new model for lexical decision, REM-LD, that is based on REM theory (e.g., Shiffrin & Steyvers, 1997). REM-LD uses a principled (i.e., Bayes' rule) decision process that simultaneously considers the diagnosticity of the evidence for the 'WORD' response and the 'NONWORD' response. The model calculates the odds ratio that the presented…

  10. Relevance of a Managerial Decision-Model to Educational Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundin, Edward.; Welty, Gordon

    The rational model of classical economic theory assumes that the decision maker has complete information on alternatives and consequences, and that he chooses the alternative that maximizes expected utility. This model does not allow for constraints placed on the decision maker resulting from lack of information, organizational pressures,…

  11. Embedding a State Space Model Into a Markov Decision Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Jørgensen, Erik; Højsgaard, Søren

    2011-01-01

    In agriculture Markov decision processes (MDPs) with finite state and action space are often used to model sequential decision making over time. For instance, states in the process represent possible levels of traits of the animal and transition probabilities are based on biological models...

  12. Reviewing model application to support animal health decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Alexander; Salman, Mo; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

    2011-04-01

    Animal health is of societal importance as it affects human welfare, and anthropogenic interests shape decision making to assure animal health. Scientific advice to support decision making is manifold. Modelling, as one piece of the scientific toolbox, is appreciated for its ability to describe and structure data, to give insight in complex processes and to predict future outcome. In this paper we study the application of scientific modelling to support practical animal health decisions. We reviewed the 35 animal health related scientific opinions adopted by the Animal Health and Animal Welfare Panel of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Thirteen of these documents were based on the application of models. The review took two viewpoints, the decision maker's need and the modeller's approach. In the reviewed material three types of modelling questions were addressed by four specific model types. The correspondence between tasks and models underpinned the importance of the modelling question in triggering the modelling approach. End point quantifications were the dominating request from decision makers, implying that prediction of risk is a major need. However, due to knowledge gaps corresponding modelling studies often shed away from providing exact numbers. Instead, comparative scenario analyses were performed, furthering the understanding of the decision problem and effects of alternative management options. In conclusion, the most adequate scientific support for decision making - including available modelling capacity - might be expected if the required advice is clearly stated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. What role can simulation model predictions play in environmental decisions: carbon dioxide as an example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emanuel, W.R.

    1979-01-01

    Frequently, when an environmental issue requiring quantitative analysis surfaces, the development of a model synthesizing all aspects of the problem and applicable at each stage of the decision process is proposed. A more desirable alternative is to generate models specifically designed to meet the requirements of each level in decision making and which can be adapted in response to the changing status of the environmental issue. Various models of the global carbon cycle constructed to predict levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere as a result of man's activities are described to illustrate this point. In summary, the progression of models developed to analyze the global carbon cycle in resolving the CO 2 /climate issue indicates the changing character of models depending on the immediate role they play in environmental decision making. The dominant and successful role served by models in the carbon cycle problem points to the desirability of this flexible approach

  14. Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Polyether sulfone membrane modeling and construction for the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Polyether sulfone membrane modeling and construction for the removal of nitrate from water using ion interference sulfate and iron nano-particle. ... The aim of this study was constructed the polyether sulfone membrane and modelling it, and for checking impact pressure, the amount of iron nanoparticles and sulfate iron ...

  16. Rodent models of adaptive decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izquierdo, Alicia; Belcher, Annabelle M

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive decision making affords the animal the ability to respond quickly to changes in a dynamic environment: one in which attentional demands, cost or effort to procure the reward, and reward contingencies change frequently. The more flexible the organism is in adapting choice behavior, the more command and success the organism has in navigating its environment. Maladaptive decision making is at the heart of much neuropsychiatric disease, including addiction. Thus, a better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie normal, adaptive decision making helps achieve a better understanding of certain diseases that incorporate maladaptive decision making as a core feature. This chapter presents three general domains of methods that the experimenter can manipulate in animal decision-making tasks: attention, effort, and reward contingency. Here, we present detailed methods of rodent tasks frequently employed within these domains: the Attentional Set-Shift Task, Effortful T-maze Task, and Visual Discrimination Reversal Learning. These tasks all recruit regions within the frontal cortex and the striatum, and performance is heavily modulated by the neurotransmitter dopamine, making these assays highly valid measures in the study of psychostimulant addiction.

  17. Cloud model construct for transaction-based cooperative systems ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cloud model construct for transaction-based cooperative systems. ... procure cutting edge Information Technology infrastructure are some of the problems faced ... Results also reveal that credit cooperatives will benefit from the model by taking ...

  18. Decision Support Model for Mosque Renovation and Rehabilitation (Case Study: Ten Mosques in Jakarta Barat, Indonesia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utama, D. N.; Triana, Y. S.; Iqbal, M. M.; Iksal, M.; Fikri, I.; Dharmawan, T.

    2018-03-01

    Mosque, for Muslim, is not only a place for daily worshipping, however as a center of culture as well. It is an important and valuable building to be well managed. For a responsible department or institution (such as Religion or Plan Department in Indonesia), to practically manage a lot of mosques is not simple task to handle. The challenge is in relation to data number and characteristic problems tackled. Specifically for renovating and rehabilitating the damaged mosques, a decision to determine the first damaged mosque priority to be renovated and rehabilitated is problematic. Through two types of optimization method, simulated-annealing and hill-climbing, a decision support model for mosque renovation and rehabilitation was systematically constructed. The method fuzzy-logic was also operated to establish the priority of eleven selected parameters. The constructed model is able to simulate an efficiency comparison between two optimization methods used and suggest the most objective decision coming from 196 generated alternatives.

  19. The Diffusion Decision Model: Theory and Data for Two-Choice Decision Tasks

    OpenAIRE

    Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2008-01-01

    The diffusion decision model allows detailed explanations of behavior in two-choice discrimination tasks. In this article, the model is reviewed to show how it translates behavioral data—accuracy, mean response times, and response time distributions—into components of cognitive processing. Three experiments are used to illustrate experimental manipulations of three components: stimulus difficulty affects the quality of information on which a decision is based; instructions emphasizing either ...

  20. Business model reconfiguration in green construction: A theoretical perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Abuzeinab, Amal; Arif, Mohammed

    2013-01-01

    PhD study Business models describe the business logic of a particular company and green business model is when a company changes part(s) of its business model and thereby both captures economic value and reduces the ecological footprint in a life-cycle perspective. In this paper, business model literature is reviewed with the intention of promoting learning to understand the economic complexity of environmental sustainability in the construction context. Although the green construction lit...

  1. Masonry constructions mechanical models and numerical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Lucchesi, Massimiliano; Padovani, Cristina

    2008-01-01

    Numerical methods for the structural analysis of masonry constructions can be of great value in assessing the safety of artistically important masonry buildings and optimizing potential operations of maintenance and strengthening in terms of their cost-effectiveness, architectural impact and static effectiveness. This monograph firstly provides a detailed description of the constitutive equation of masonry-like materials, clearly setting out its most important features. It then goes on to provide a numerical procedure to solve the equilibrium problem of masonry solids. A large portion of the w

  2. Analysis of the Construct Validity and Measurement Invariance of the Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Makransky, Guido; Rogers, Mary E.; Creed, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    The Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale – Short Form (CDSE-SF) is one of the most frequently used instruments to assess individual levels of career-related self-efficacy. The present study used the partial credit model within the framework of item response theory to examine the content, structural......, substantive, and generalizability aspects of validity for the CDSE-SF in a sample of 534 Australian high school students aged between 14 and 19 years. The results showed clear evidence of multidimensionality for the CDSE-SF. Furthermore, there was strong support for the content, structural, and substantive...

  3. Decision-table development for use with the CAT code for the automated fault-tree construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, J.S.; Salem, S.L.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    1977-01-01

    A library of decision tables to be used in connection with the CAT computer code for the automated construction of fault trees is presented. A decision table is constructed for each component type describing the output of the component in terms of its inputs and its internal states. In addition, a modification of the CAT code that couples it with a fault tree analysis code is presented. This report represents one aspect of a study entitled, 'A General Evaluation Approach to Risk-Benefit for Large Technological Systems, and Its Application to Nuclear Power.'

  4. Hierarchical decision modeling essays in honor of Dundar F. Kocaoglu

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This volume, developed in honor of Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu, aims to demonstrate the applications of the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) in different sectors and its capacity in decision analysis. It is comprised of essays from noted scholars, academics and researchers of engineering and technology management around the world. This book is organized into four parts: Technology Assessment, Strategic Planning, National Technology Planning and Decision Making Tools. Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu is one of the pioneers of multiple decision models using hierarchies, and creator of the HDM in decision analysis. HDM is a mission-oriented method for evaluation and/or selection among alternatives. A wide range of alternatives can be considered, including but not limited to, different technologies, projects, markets, jobs, products, cities to live in, houses to buy, apartments to rent, and schools to attend. Dr. Kocaoglu’s approach has been adopted for decision problems in many industrial sectors, including electronics rese...

  5. 4D modeling in high-rise construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balakina, Anastasiya; Simankina, Tatyana; Lukinov, Vitaly

    2018-03-01

    High-rise construction is a complex construction process, requiring the use of more perfected and sophisticated tools for design, planning and construction management. The use of BIM-technologies allows minimizing the risks associated with design errors and errors that occur during construction. This article discusses a visual planning method using the 4D model, which allows the project team to create an accurate and complete construction plan, which is much more difficult to achieve with the help of traditional planning methods. The use of the 4D model in the construction of a 70-story building allowed to detect spatial and temporal errors before the start of construction work. In addition to identifying design errors, 4D modeling has allowed to optimize the construction, as follows: to optimize the operation of cranes, the placement of building structures and materials at various stages of construction, to optimize the organization of work performance, as well as to monitor the activities related to the preparation of the construction site for compliance with labor protection and safety requirements, which resulted in saving money and time.

  6. 4D modeling in high-rise construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balakina Anastasiya

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available High-rise construction is a complex construction process, requiring the use of more perfected and sophisticated tools for design, planning and construction management. The use of BIM-technologies allows minimizing the risks associated with design errors and errors that occur during construction. This article discusses a visual planning method using the 4D model, which allows the project team to create an accurate and complete construction plan, which is much more difficult to achieve with the help of traditional planning methods. The use of the 4D model in the construction of a 70-story building allowed to detect spatial and temporal errors before the start of construction work. In addition to identifying design errors, 4D modeling has allowed to optimize the construction, as follows: to optimize the operation of cranes, the placement of building structures and materials at various stages of construction, to optimize the organization of work performance, as well as to monitor the activities related to the preparation of the construction site for compliance with labor protection and safety requirements, which resulted in saving money and time.

  7. Decision support modeling for milk valorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banaszewska, A.

    2014-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis concerns decision problems in practice that require structured, precise, scientific studies to provide strong, reliable answers. An opportunity to contribute to both practice and science emerged in 2008 when two large, Dutch dairy companies merged, creating

  8. Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Maynard-Zhang, Pedrito; Kiper, James D.

    2005-01-01

    One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

  9. Locally Simple Models Construction: Methodology and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kazakov

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the most notable trends associated with the Fourth industrial revolution is a significant strengthening of the role played by semantic methods. They are engaged in artificial intelligence means, knowledge mining in huge flows of big data, robotization, and in the internet of things. Smart contracts also can be mentioned here, although the ’intelligence’ of smart contracts still needs to be seriously elaborated. These trends should inevitably lead to an increased role of logical methods working with semantics, and significantly expand the scope of their application in practice. However, there are a number of problems that hinder this process. We are developing an approach, which makes the application of logical modeling efficient in some important areas. The approach is based on the concept of locally simple models and is primarily focused on solving tasks in the management of enterprises, organizations, governing bodies. The most important feature of locally simple models is their ability to replace software systems. Replacement of programming by modeling gives huge advantages, for instance, it dramatically reduces development and support costs. Modeling, unlike programming, preserves the explicit semantics of models allowing integration with artificial intelligence and robots. In addition, models are much more understandable to general people than programs. In this paper we propose the implementation of the concept of locally simple modeling on the basis of so-called document models, which has been developed by us earlier. It is shown that locally simple modeling is realized through document models with finite submodel coverages. In the second part of the paper an example of using document models for solving a management problem of real complexity is demonstrated.

  10. Insights from quantum cognitive models for organizational decision making

    OpenAIRE

    White, L.C.; Pothos, E. M.; Busemeyer, J. R.

    2015-01-01

    Organizational decision making is often explored with theories from the heuristics and biases research program, which have demonstrated great value as descriptions of how people in organizations make decisions. Nevertheless, rational analysis and classical probability theory are still seen by many as the best accounts of how decisions should be made and classical probability theory is the preferred framework for cognitive modelling for many researchers. The focus of this work is quantum proba...

  11. The Career Decision-Making Competence: A New Construct for the Career Realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceschi, Andrea; Costantini, Arianna; Phillips, Susan D.; Sartori, Riccardo

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to link findings from laboratory-based decision-making research and decision-making competence (DMC) aspects that may be central for career-related decision-making processes. Past research has identified individual differences in rational responses in decision situations, which the authors refer to as DMC. Although there…

  12. From individual preference construction to group decisions: framing effects and group processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milch, K.F.; Weber, E.U.; Appelt, K.C.; Handgraaf, M.J.J.; Krantz, D.H.

    2009-01-01

    Two choice tasks known to produce framing effects in individual decisions were used to test group sensitivity to framing, relative to that of individuals, and to examine the effect of prior, individual consideration of a decision on group choice. Written post-decision reasons and pre-decision group

  13. Constructive modelling of structural turbulence: computational experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belotserkovskii, O M; Oparin, A M; Troshkin, O V [Institute for Computer Aided Design, Russian Academy of Sciences, Vtoraya Brestskaya st., 19/18, Moscow, 123056 (Russian Federation); Chechetkin, V M [Keldysh Institute for Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Miusskaya sq., 4, Moscow, 125047 (Russian Federation)], E-mail: o.bel@icad.org.ru, E-mail: a.oparin@icad.org.ru, E-mail: troshkin@icad.org.ru, E-mail: chech@gin@keldysh.ru

    2008-12-15

    Constructively, the analysis of the phenomenon of turbulence must and can be performed through direct numerical simulations of mechanics supposed to be inherent to secondary flows. This one reveals itself through such instances as large vortices, structural instabilities, vortex cascades and principal modes discussed in this paper. Like fragments of a puzzle, they speak of a motion ordered with its own nuts and bolts, however chaotic it appears at first sight. This opens an opportunity for a multi-oriented approach of which a prime ideology seems to be a rational combination of grid, spectral and statistical methods. An attempt is made to bring together the above instances and produce an alternative point of view on the phenomenon in question when based on the main laws of conservation.

  14. IDENTIFYING OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS TO SELECT SUITABLE DECISION MODELS FOR A PUBLIC SECTOR EPROCUREMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Adil

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Public sector procurement should be a transparent and fair process. Strict legal requirements are enforced on public sector procurement to make it a standardised process. To make fair decisions on selecting suppliers, a practical method which adheres to legal requirements is important. The research that is the base for this paper aimed at identifying a suitable Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA method for the specific legal and functional needs of the Maldivian Public Sector. To identify such operational requirements, a set of focus group interviews were conducted in the Maldives with public officials responsible for procurement decision making. Based on the operational requirements identified through focus groups, criteria-based evaluation is done on published MCDA methods to identify the suitable methods for e-procurement decision making. This paper describes the identification of the operational requirements and the results of the evaluation to select suitable decision models for the Maldivian context.

  15. Construction of closed fermionic string models in four dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewellen, D.C.

    1987-01-01

    It is possible to construct consistent closed string models directly in four space-time dimensions if reparametrization invariance, conformal invariance and world sheet supersymmetry are properly accounted for. In the context of string models whose internal degrees of freedom are represented by free world sheet fermions, it is possible to completely solve for the above requirements, providing a simple set of rules for constructing string models. N = 1 supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric heterotic type string models with chiral fermions and realistic gauge groups, as well as generalized type II models with realistic gauge groups, can easily be constructed. Many other string models can be constructed using similar methods based on free world sheet bosons

  16. The process of construction of evidence: An analysis of the use of indicators in two decisions of innovation policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boavida, N.; Moniz, A.; Laranja, M.

    2016-07-01

    Despite increasing calls for evidence-based policies, knowledge about the practical use of evidences remains limited. This paper studies the process of construction of evidences in decisions of innovation policy to understand how evidences were used. It analysis the use of indicators and other evidences through interviews conducted to inquire about the two decisions: an electric mobility policy and a nanotechnology laboratory. Results show indicators and other evidences were brought to decision processes according to their availability and capacity to support the different interests of the actors and the stakeholders. Their role was influenced by the particular situation of the decision makers. More importantly, the use of persuasive analytical evidences appears to be related with the adversity of the policy context. In addition, research suggests that indicators are one tool among others to foster innovation decisions. In fact, the relatively minor instrumental role of indicators suggests that indicators are mostly a complementary instrument of decision. When used relevantly, indicators can offer support to a decision. But there are other significant influences that need to be taken into account to understand the specific role indicators and other evidences play, such as the social relations of the decision makers and their emotional-intuitive decisions. (Author)

  17. Construction cost forecast model : model documentation and technical notes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    Construction cost indices are generally estimated with Laspeyres, Paasche, or Fisher indices that allow changes : in the quantities of construction bid items, as well as changes in price to change the cost indices of those items. : These cost indices...

  18. Introduction of Building Information Modeling (BIM) Technologies in Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milyutina, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    The issues of introduction of building information modeling (BIM) in construction industry are considered in this work. The advantages of this approach and perspectives of the transition to new design technologies, construction process management, and operation in the near future are stated. The importance of development of pilot projects that should identify the ways and means of verification of the regulatory and technical base, as well as economic indicators in the transition to Building Information Technologies in the construction, is noted.

  19. A Signal Detection Model of Compound Decision Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-12-01

    strict isolation (for many examples of such models see Egan, 1975; Macmillan & Creelman , 1991). The result has been twofold: A rich corpus of decision...Macmillan & Creelman , 1991). It is important to point out that SDT models are primarily decision models. They specify the rules and procedures for how...Broadbent, 1958; Macmillan & Creelman , 1991; Nolte & Jaarsma, 1967; Swensson & Judy, 1981; Tanner & Norman, 1954). To better understand how these two

  20. Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

    2016-06-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. © The Author(s) 2016.

  1. Identification of reverse logistics decision types from mathematical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascual Cortés Pellicer

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The increase in social awareness, politics and environmental regulation, the scarcity of raw materials and the desired “green” image, are some of the reasons that lead companies to decide for implement processes of Reverse Logistics (RL. At the time when incorporate new RL processes as key business processes, new and important decisions need to be made. Identification and knowledge of these decisions, including the information available and the implications for the company or supply chain, will be fundamental for decision-makers to achieve the best results. In the present work, the main types of RL decisions are identified. Design/methodology/approach: This paper is based on the analysis of mathematical models designed as tools to aid decision making in the field of RL. Once the types of interest work to be analyzed are defined, those studies that really deal about the object of study are searched and analyzed. The decision variables that are taken at work are identified and grouped according to the type of decision and, finally, are showed the main types of decisions used in mathematical models developed in the field of RL.     Findings: The principal conclusion of the research is that the most commonly addressed decisions with mathematical models in the field of RL are those related to the network’s configuration, followed by tactical/operative decisions such as the selections of product’s treatments to realize and the policy of returns or prices, among other decisions. Originality/value: The identification of the main decisions types of the reverse logistics will allow the managers of these processes to know and understand them better, while offer an integrated vision of them, favoring the achievement of better results.

  2. Constructing Pedagogical Models For E-learning

    OpenAIRE

    Patricia Alejandra Behar

    2011-01-01

    This article brings forth an overview of the paradigmatic crisis and the introduction of new pedagogical practices. It also discusses the relationship between paradigm and pedagogical model, presenting a theoretical discussion on the concepts of pedagogical model for E-learning and its pedagogical architecture. To do so, the elements that are part of it such as organizational aspects, content, methodological and technological aspects are discussed. This theoretical discussion underlies the co...

  3. Microsimulation Modeling for Health Decision Sciences Using R: A Tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krijkamp, Eline M; Alarid-Escudero, Fernando; Enns, Eva A; Jalal, Hawre J; Hunink, M G Myriam; Pechlivanoglou, Petros

    2018-04-01

    Microsimulation models are becoming increasingly common in the field of decision modeling for health. Because microsimulation models are computationally more demanding than traditional Markov cohort models, the use of computer programming languages in their development has become more common. R is a programming language that has gained recognition within the field of decision modeling. It has the capacity to perform microsimulation models more efficiently than software commonly used for decision modeling, incorporate statistical analyses within decision models, and produce more transparent models and reproducible results. However, no clear guidance for the implementation of microsimulation models in R exists. In this tutorial, we provide a step-by-step guide to build microsimulation models in R and illustrate the use of this guide on a simple, but transferable, hypothetical decision problem. We guide the reader through the necessary steps and provide generic R code that is flexible and can be adapted for other models. We also show how this code can be extended to address more complex model structures and provide an efficient microsimulation approach that relies on vectorization solutions.

  4. Ethnographic Decision Tree Modeling: A Research Method for Counseling Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Kirk A.

    2005-01-01

    This article describes ethnographic decision tree modeling (EDTM; C. H. Gladwin, 1989) as a mixed method design appropriate for counseling psychology research. EDTM is introduced and located within a postpositivist research paradigm. Decision theory that informs EDTM is reviewed, and the 2 phases of EDTM are highlighted. The 1st phase, model…

  5. A decision-making model for engineering designers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, S.; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining...

  6. Introductie Decision Model and Notation (DMN) : Deel 1

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Martijn Zoet; Koen Smit

    2017-01-01

    Sinds september 2015 is de ‘business rule management wereld’ / ‘decision management wereld’ weer een standaard rijker: The Decision Model and Notation (DMN). De Object Management Group (OMG) heeft deze nieuwe standaard uitgebracht met als doel een standaard taal te creëren om 1) requirements voor

  7. Introductie Decision Model and Notation (DMN) : Deel 2

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Martijn Zoet; Koen Smit

    2017-01-01

    Sinds september 2015 is de ‘business rule management wereld’ / ‘decision management wereld’ weer een standaard rijker: The Decision Model and Notation (DMN). De Object Management Group (OMG) heeft deze nieuwe standaard uitgebracht met als doel een standaard taal te creëren om 1) requirements voor

  8. Introductie Decision Model and Notation (DMN) : Deel 3

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Martijn Zoet; Koen Smit

    2017-01-01

    Sinds september 2015 is de ‘business rule management wereld’ / ‘decision management wereld’ weer een standaard rijker: The Decision Model and Notation (DMN). De Object Management Group (OMG) heeft deze nieuwe standaard uitgebracht met als doel een standaardtaal te creëren om 1) requirements voor

  9. A new fit-for-purpose model testing framework: Decision Crash Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolson, Bryan; Craig, James

    2016-04-01

    Decision-makers in water resources are often burdened with selecting appropriate multi-million dollar strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate or land use change. Unfortunately, the suitability of existing hydrologic simulation models to accurately inform decision-making is in doubt because the testing procedures used to evaluate model utility (i.e., model validation) are insufficient. For example, many authors have identified that a good standard framework for model testing called the Klemes Crash Tests (KCTs), which are the classic model validation procedures from Klemeš (1986) that Andréassian et al. (2009) rename as KCTs, have yet to become common practice in hydrology. Furthermore, Andréassian et al. (2009) claim that the progression of hydrological science requires widespread use of KCT and the development of new crash tests. Existing simulation (not forecasting) model testing procedures such as KCTs look backwards (checking for consistency between simulations and past observations) rather than forwards (explicitly assessing if the model is likely to support future decisions). We propose a fundamentally different, forward-looking, decision-oriented hydrologic model testing framework based upon the concept of fit-for-purpose model testing that we call Decision Crash Tests or DCTs. Key DCT elements are i) the model purpose (i.e., decision the model is meant to support) must be identified so that model outputs can be mapped to management decisions ii) the framework evaluates not just the selected hydrologic model but the entire suite of model-building decisions associated with model discretization, calibration etc. The framework is constructed to directly and quantitatively evaluate model suitability. The DCT framework is applied to a model building case study on the Grand River in Ontario, Canada. A hypothetical binary decision scenario is analysed (upgrade or not upgrade the existing flood control structure) under two different sets of model building

  10. Decision making model design for antivirus software selection using Factor Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process

    OpenAIRE

    Nurhayati Ai; Gautama Aditya; Naseer Muchammad

    2018-01-01

    Virus spread increase significantly through the internet in 2017. One of the protection method is using antivirus software. The wide variety of antivirus software in the market tends to creating confusion among consumer. Selecting the right antivirus according to their needs has become difficult. This is the reason we conduct our research. We formulate a decision making model for antivirus software consumer. The model is constructed by using factor analysis and AHP method. First we spread que...

  11. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159-182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of word-likeness evidence for both words and non-words. The Retrieving Effectively from Memory model of Lexical-Decision (REM-LD; Wagenmakers et al., Cognitive Psychology, 48(3), 332-367, 2004) provides a comprehensive explanation of lexical-decision data and makes the prediction that word-likeness evidence is more variable for words than non-words and that higher frequency words are more variable than lower frequency words. To test these predictions, we analyzed five lexical-decision data sets with the DDM. For all data sets, drift-rate variability changed across word frequency and non-word conditions. For the most part, REM-LD's predictions about the ordering of evidence variability across stimuli in the lexical-decision task were confirmed.

  12. A spiral model of musical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangert, Daniel; Schubert, Emery; Fabian, Dorottya

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a model of how musicians make decisions about performing notated music. The model builds on psychological theories of decision-making and was developed from empirical studies of Western art music performance that aimed to identify intuitive and deliberate processes of decision-making, a distinction consistent with dual-process theories of cognition. The model proposes that the proportion of intuitive (Type 1) and deliberate (Type 2) decision-making processes changes with increasing expertise and conceptualizes this change as movement along a continually narrowing upward spiral where the primary axis signifies principal decision-making type and the vertical axis marks level of expertise. The model is intended to have implications for the development of expertise as described in two main phases. The first is movement from a primarily intuitive approach in the early stages of learning toward greater deliberation as analytical techniques are applied during practice. The second phase occurs as deliberate decisions gradually become automatic (procedural), increasing the role of intuitive processes. As a performer examines more issues or reconsiders decisions, the spiral motion toward the deliberate side and back to the intuitive is repeated indefinitely. With increasing expertise, the spiral tightens to signify greater control over decision type selection. The model draws on existing theories, particularly Evans' (2011) Intervention Model of dual-process theories, Cognitive Continuum Theory Hammond et al. (1987), Hammond (2007), Baylor's (2001) U-shaped model for the development of intuition by level of expertise. By theorizing how musical decision-making operates over time and with increasing expertise, this model could be used as a framework for future research in music performance studies and performance science more generally.

  13. A spiral model of musical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel eBangert

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a model of how musicians make decisions about performing notated music. The model builds on psychological theories of decision-making and was developed from empirical studies of Western art music performance that aimed to identify intuitive and deliberate processes of decision-making, a distinction consistent with dual-process theories of cognition. The model proposes that the proportion of intuitive (Type 1 and deliberate (Type 2 decision-making processes changes with increasing expertise and conceptualises this change as movement along a continually narrowing upward spiral where the primary axis signifies principal decision-making type and the vertical axis marks level of expertise. The model is intended to have implications for the development of expertise as described in two main phases. The first is movement from a primarily intuitive approach in the early stages of learning towards greater deliberation as analytical techniques are applied during practice. The second phase occurs as deliberate decisions gradually become automatic (procedural, increasing the role of intuitive processes. As a performer examines more issues or reconsiders decisions, the spiral motion towards the deliberate side and back to the intuitive is repeated indefinitely. With increasing expertise, the spiral tightens to signify greater control over decision type selection. The model draws on existing theories, particularly Evans’ (2011 Intervention Model of dual-process theories, Cognitive Continuum Theory (Hammond et al., 1987; Hammond, 2007, and Baylor’s (2001 U-shaped model for the development of intuition by level of expertise. By theorising how musical decision-making operates over time and with increasing expertise, this model could be used as a framework for future research in music performance studies and performance science more generally.

  14. Integrating Design Decision Management with Model-based Software Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    Design decisions are continuously made during the development of software systems and are important artifacts for design documentation. Dedicated decision management systems are often used to capture such design knowledge. Most such systems are, however, separated from the design artifacts...... of the system. In model-based software development, where design models are used to develop a software system, outcomes of many design decisions have big impact on design models. The realization of design decisions is often manual and tedious work on design models. Moreover, keeping design models consistent......, or by ignoring the causes. This substitutes manual reviews to some extent. The concepts, implemented in a tool, have been validated with design patterns, refactorings, and domain level tests that comprise a replay of a real project. This proves the applicability of the solution to realistic examples...

  15. Modular Architecture for Integrated Model-Based Decision Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaebel, Jan; Schreiber, Erik; Oeser, Alexander; Oeltze-Jafra, Steffen

    2018-01-01

    Model-based decision support systems promise to be a valuable addition to oncological treatments and the implementation of personalized therapies. For the integration and sharing of decision models, the involved systems must be able to communicate with each other. In this paper, we propose a modularized architecture of dedicated systems for the integration of probabilistic decision models into existing hospital environments. These systems interconnect via web services and provide model sharing and processing capabilities for clinical information systems. Along the lines of IHE integration profiles from other disciplines and the meaningful reuse of routinely recorded patient data, our approach aims for the seamless integration of decision models into hospital infrastructure and the physicians' daily work.

  16. Modeling the Constructs Contributing to the Effectiveness of Marketing Lecturers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeney, Arthur D. P.; Morrison, Mark D.; Jarratt, Denise; Heffernan, Troy

    2009-01-01

    Student evaluation of teaching has been examined in higher education research for over 70 years but there are gaps in our knowledge about the contribution, and relationships between, the relevant constructs. Recent literature encourages researchers to test multivariate models of Teaching Effectiveness. Seven main constructs known to influence…

  17. Methods and models for the construction of weakly parallel tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adema, J.J.; Adema, Jos J.

    1992-01-01

    Several methods are proposed for the construction of weakly parallel tests [i.e., tests with the same test information function (TIF)]. A mathematical programming model that constructs tests containing a prespecified TIF and a heuristic that assigns items to tests with information functions that are

  18. Methods and models for the construction of weakly parallel tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adema, J.J.; Adema, Jos J.

    1990-01-01

    Methods are proposed for the construction of weakly parallel tests, that is, tests with the same test information function. A mathematical programing model for constructing tests with a prespecified test information function and a heuristic for assigning items to tests such that their information

  19. Model Driven Integrated Decision-Making in Manufacturing Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard H. Weston

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making requirements and solutions are observed in four world class Manufacturing Enterprises (MEs. Observations made focus on deployed methods of complexity handling that facilitate multi-purpose, distributed decision making. Also observed are examples of partially deficient “integrated decision making” which stem from lack of understanding about how ME structural relations enable and/or constrain reachable ME behaviours. To begin to address this deficiency the paper outlines the use of a “reference model of ME decision making” which can inform the structural design of decision making systems in MEs. Also outlined is a “systematic model driven approach to modelling ME systems” which can particularise the reference model in specific case enterprises and thereby can “underpin integrated ME decision making”. Coherent decomposition and representational mechanisms have been incorporated into the model driven approach to systemise complexity handling. The paper also describes in outline an application of the modelling method in a case study ME and explains how its use has improved the integration of previously distinct planning functions. The modelling approach is particularly innovative in respect to the way it structures the coherent creation and experimental re-use of “fit for purpose” discrete event (predictive simulation models at the multiple levels of abstraction.

  20. Five Ethical Paradigms for Community College Leaders: Toward Constructing and Considering Alternative Courses of Action in Ethical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, J. Luke; Hilton, Adriel A.

    2012-01-01

    This article encourages community college leaders to employ ethical paradigms when constructing and considering alternative courses of action in decision-making processes. The authors discuss four previously articulated paradigms (e.g., ethic of justice, ethic of critique, ethic of care, and ethic of the profession) and propose an additional…

  1. Review of constructive models for concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiaoping, Y.; Ottosen, N.S.; Thelandersson, S.; Nielsen, M.P.

    1989-11-01

    This report has been prepared for the Commission of the European Communities, Joint Research Centre, ISPRA. The report reviews the constitutive models for concrete and is a part of a survey of the status of the analytical capabilities for predicting the structural response of NPP concrete containment buildings to severe loading conditions

  2. Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria.

  3. Anthropomimetic Robots: Concept, Construction and Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Diamond

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available An anthropomimetic robot is one that closely copies the mechanics of the human body by having a human-like jointed skeleton moved by compliant muscle-like actuators. This paper describes the progress achieved in building anthropomimetic torsos in two projects, CRONOS and ECCEROBOT. In each, the bones were hand-moulded in a thermoplastic and the muscles were implemented by DC motors shortening and extending elastic tendons. Anthropomimetic robots differ from conventionally engineered robots by having complex joints and compliant tendon driven actuation that can cross more than one joint. Taken together, these characteristics make the robots unsuitable for control by standard methods, and so the ability to model them is important for developing heuristic methods of control and also for providing forward models. The robots were modelled using physics-based techniques which enable the study of the generation of movements and also of interactions with arbitrary objects. The lightweight and compliant structure of the robots was found to be safe for human proximity and contact.

  4. Modeling protein structures: construction and their applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ring, C S; Cohen, F E

    1993-06-01

    Although no general solution to the protein folding problem exists, the three-dimensional structures of proteins are being successfully predicted when experimentally derived constraints are used in conjunction with heuristic methods. In the case of interleukin-4, mutagenesis data and CD spectroscopy were instrumental in the accurate assignment of secondary structure. In addition, the tertiary structure was highly constrained by six cysteines separated by many residues that formed three disulfide bridges. Although the correct structure was a member of a short list of plausible structures, the "best" structure was the topological enantiomer of the experimentally determined conformation. For many proteases, other experimentally derived structures can be used as templates to identify the secondary structure elements. In a procedure called modeling by homology, the structure of a known protein is used as a scaffold to predict the structure of another related protein. This method has been used to model a serine and a cysteine protease that are important in the schistosome and malarial life cycles, respectively. The model structures were then used to identify putative small molecule enzyme inhibitors computationally. Experiments confirm that some of these nonpeptidic compounds are active at concentrations of less than 10 microM.

  5. A Decision Support Model and Tool to Assist Financial Decision-Making in Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhayat, Imtiaz; Manuguerra, Maurizio; Baldock, Clive

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model and tool is proposed to assist universities and other mission-based organisations to ascertain systematically the optimal portfolio of projects, in any year, meeting the organisations risk tolerances and available funds. The model and tool presented build on previous work on university operations and decision support systems…

  6. A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2011-05-30

    Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Our approach is based on the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify decision uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive BR profile. We construct a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We assess fluoxetine and venlafaxine together with placebo according to incidence of treatment response and three common adverse drug reactions by using data from a published study. Our model shows that there are clear trade-offs among the treatment alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Cognitive processes, models and metaphors in decision research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Newell

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Decision research in psychology has traditionally been influenced by the extit{homo oeconomicus} metaphor with its emphasis on normative models and deviations from the predictions of those models. In contrast, the principal metaphor of cognitive psychology conceptualizes humans as `information processors', employing processes of perception, memory, categorization, problem solving and so on. Many of the processes described in cognitive theories are similar to those involved in decision making, and thus increasing cross-fertilization between the two areas is an important endeavour. A wide range of models and metaphors has been proposed to explain and describe `information processing' and many models have been applied to decision making in ingenious ways. This special issue encourages cross-fertilization between cognitive psychology and decision research by providing an overview of current perspectives in one area that continues to highlight the benefits of the synergistic approach: cognitive modeling of multi-attribute decision making. In this introduction we discuss aspects of the cognitive system that need to be considered when modeling multi-attribute decision making (e.g., automatic versus controlled processing, learning and memory constraints, metacognition and illustrate how such aspects are incorporated into the approaches proposed by contributors to the special issue. We end by discussing the challenges posed by the contrasting and sometimes incompatible assumptions of the models and metaphors.

  8. Spreadsheet Decision Support Model for Training Exercise Material Requirements Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tringali, Arthur

    1997-01-01

    This thesis focuses on developing a spreadsheet decision support model that can be used by combat engineer platoon and company commanders in determining the material requirements and estimated costs...

  9. Optimization for decision making linear and quadratic models

    CERN Document Server

    Murty, Katta G

    2010-01-01

    While maintaining the rigorous linear programming instruction required, Murty's new book is unique in its focus on developing modeling skills to support valid decision-making for complex real world problems, and includes solutions to brand new algorithms.

  10. Model Tests on the Retaining Walls Constructed from Geobags Filled with Construction Waste

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Wen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Geobag retaining wall using construction waste is a new flexible supporting structure, and the usage of construction waste to fill geobags can facilitate the construction recycling. In this paper, model tests were performed on geobag retaining wall using construction waste. The investigation was concentrated on the slope top settlement, the distribution characteristics of the earth pressures on retaining walls and horizontal wall displacements, and slope failure modes. The results indicated that the ultimate loads that the slope tops with retaining walls could bear were 87.5%~125% higher than that of the slope top without retaining walls. The ultimate loading of strengthened slopes with different slope ratios from 1 : 0.75 to 1 : 0.25 could be reduced by 11.8% to 29.4%. The horizontal displacements of the retaining walls constructed from geobags were distributed in a drum shape, with the greatest horizontal displacements occurring about 1/3~1/2 of the wall height away from the bottom of the wall. As the slope ratio increased, the failure of the slope soil supported by geobag retaining wall using construction waste changed from sliding to sliding-toppling (dominated by sliding and then to toppling-sliding (dominated by toppling. The range of 1/3~1/2 of wall height is the weak part of the retaining walls, which should be strengthened with certain measures during the process of design and construction.

  11. A Production Model for Construction: A Theoretical Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Antunes

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The building construction industry faces challenges, such as increasing project complexity and scope requirements, but shorter deadlines. Additionally, economic uncertainty and rising business competition with a subsequent decrease in profit margins for the industry demands the development of new approaches to construction management. However, the building construction sector relies on practices based on intuition and experience, overlooking the dynamics of its production system. Furthermore, researchers maintain that the construction industry has no history of the application of mathematical approaches to model and manage production. Much work has been carried out on how manufacturing practices apply to construction projects, mostly lean principles. Nevertheless, there has been little research to understand the fundamental mechanisms of production in construction. This study develops an in-depth literature review to examine the existing knowledge about production models and their characteristics in order to establish a foundation for dynamic production systems management in construction. As a result, a theoretical framework is proposed, which will be instrumental in the future development of mathematical production models aimed at predicting the performance and behaviour of dynamic project-based systems in construction.

  12. An approach to a constructive simplification of multiagent multicriteria decision making problems via intercriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atanassov, Krassimir; Szmidt, Eulalia; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Atanassova, Vassia

    2017-01-01

    A new multiagent multicriteria decision making procedure is proposed that considerably extends the existing methods by making it possible to intelligently reduce the set of criteria to be accounted for. The method employs elements of the novel Intercriteria Analysis method. The use of new tools, notably the intuitionistic fuzzy pairs and intuitionistic fuzzy index matrices provides additional information about the problem, addressed in the decision making procedure. Key words: decision making, multiagent systems, multicriteria decision making, intercriteria analysis, intuitionistic fuzzy estimation

  13. Applications of a simulation model to decisions in mallard management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowardin, L.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Shaffer, T.L.; Sparling, D.W.

    1988-01-01

    A system comprising simulation models and data bases for habitat availability and nest success rates was used to predict results from a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management plan and to compare six management methods with a control. Individual treatments in the applications included land purchase for waterfowl production, wetland easement purchase, lease of uplands for waterfowl management, cropland retirement, use of no-till winter wheat, delayed cutting of alfalfa, installation of nest baskets, nesting island construction, and use of predator-resistant fencing.The simulations predicted that implementation of the management plan would increase recruits by 24%. Nest baskets were the most effective treatment, accounting for 20.4% of the recruits. No-till winter wheat was the second most effective, accounting for 5.9% of the recruits. Wetland loss due to drainage would cause an 11% loss of breeding population in 10 years.The models were modified to account for migrational homing. The modification indicated that migrational homing would enhance the effects of management. Nest success rates were critical contributions to individual management methods. The most effective treatments, such as nest baskets, had high success rates and affected a large portion of the breeding population.Economic analyses indicated that nest baskets would be the most economical of the three techniques tested. The applications indicated that the system is a useful tool to aid management decisions, but data are scarce for several important variables. Basic research will be required to adequately model the effect of migrational homing and density dependence on production. The comprehensive nature of predictions desired by managers will also require that production models like the one described here be extended to encompass the entire annual cycle of waterfowl.

  14. Mathematical model of innovative sustainability “green” construction object

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slesarev Michail

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper addresses the issue of finding sustainability of “green” innovative processes in interaction between construction activities and the environment. The problem of today’s construction science is stated as comprehensive integration and automation of natural and artificial intellects within systems that ensure environmental safety of construction based on innovative sustainability of “green” technologies in the life environment, and “green” innovative products. The suggested solution to the problem should formalize sustainability models and methods for interpretation of optimization mathematical modeling problems respective to problems of environmental-based innovative process management, adapted to construction of “green” objects, “green” construction technologies, “green” innovative materials and structures.

  15. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    OpenAIRE

    R?muzat, C?cile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, ?sa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aball?a, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm).Methods: A model was built to assess policy sc...

  16. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administe...

  17. Decision Making under Uncertainty: A Neural Model based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh P N Rao

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem faced by animals is learning to select actions based on noisy sensory information and incomplete knowledge of the world. It has been suggested that the brain engages in Bayesian inference during perception but how such probabilistic representations are used to select actions has remained unclear. Here we propose a neural model of action selection and decision making based on the theory of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. Actions are selected based not on a single optimal estimate of state but on the posterior distribution over states (the belief state. We show how such a model provides a unified framework for explaining experimental results in decision making that involve both information gathering and overt actions. The model utilizes temporal difference (TD learning for maximizing expected reward. The resulting neural architecture posits an active role for the neocortex in belief computation while ascribing a role to the basal ganglia in belief representation, value computation, and action selection. When applied to the random dots motion discrimination task, model neurons representing belief exhibit responses similar to those of LIP neurons in primate neocortex. The appropriate threshold for switching from information gathering to overt actions emerges naturally during reward maximization. Additionally, the time course of reward prediction error in the model shares similarities with dopaminergic responses in the basal ganglia during the random dots task. For tasks with a deadline, the model learns a decision making strategy that changes with elapsed time, predicting a collapsing decision threshold consistent with some experimental studies. The model provides a new framework for understanding neural decision making and suggests an important role for interactions between the neocortex and the basal ganglia in learning the mapping between probabilistic sensory representations and actions that maximize

  18. A Representation for Gaining Insight into Clinical Decision Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimison, Holly B.

    1988-01-01

    For many medical domains uncertainty and patient preferences are important components of decision making. Decision theory is useful as a representation for such medical models in computer decision aids, but the methodology has typically had poor performance in the areas of explanation and user interface. The additional representation of probabilities and utilities as random variables serves to provide a framework for graphical and text insight into complicated decision models. The approach allows for efficient customization of a generic model that describes the general patient population of interest to a patient- specific model. Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the expected value of information and sensitivity for each model variable, thus providing a metric for deciding what to emphasize in the graphics and text summary. The computer-generated explanation includes variables that are sensitive with respect to the decision or that deviate significantly from what is typically observed. These techniques serve to keep the assessment and explanation of the patient's decision model concise, allowing the user to focus on the most important aspects for that patient.

  19. Multi-level decision making models, methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya

    2015-01-01

    This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.  

  20. Application of decision tree model for the ground subsidence hazard mapping near abandoned underground coal mines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Saro; Park, Inhye

    2013-09-30

    Subsidence of ground caused by underground mines poses hazards to human life and property. This study analyzed the hazard to ground subsidence using factors that can affect ground subsidence and a decision tree approach in a geographic information system (GIS). The study area was Taebaek, Gangwon-do, Korea, where many abandoned underground coal mines exist. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 50/50 for training and validation of the models. A data-mining classification technique was applied to the GSH mapping, and decision trees were constructed using the chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) and the quick, unbiased, and efficient statistical tree (QUEST) algorithms. The frequency ratio model was also applied to the GSH mapping for comparing with probabilistic model. The resulting GSH maps were validated using area-under-the-curve (AUC) analysis with the subsidence area data that had not been used for training the model. The highest accuracy was achieved by the decision tree model using CHAID algorithm (94.01%) comparing with QUEST algorithms (90.37%) and frequency ratio model (86.70%). These accuracies are higher than previously reported results for decision tree. Decision tree methods can therefore be used efficiently for GSH analysis and might be widely used for prediction of various spatial events. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. A generic methodology for developing fuzzy decision models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosma, R.; Berg, van den J.; Kaymak, U.; Udo, H.; Verreth, J.

    2012-01-01

    An important paradigm in decision-making models is utility-maximization where most models do not include actors’ motives. Fuzzy set theory on the other hand offers a method to simulate human decisionmaking. However, the literature describing expert-driven fuzzy logic models, rarely gives precise

  2. Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

  3. Modelling the Role of Cognitive Metaphors in Joint Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ments, L.; Thilakarathne, D.J.; Treur, J.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a social agent model is presented for the influence of cognitive metaphors on joint decision making processes. The social agent model is based on mechanisms known from cognitive and social neuroscience and cognitive metaphor theory. The model was illustrated in particular for two

  4. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  5. An evolutionary behavioral model for decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Romero Lopez, Dr Oscar Javier

    2011-01-01

    For autonomous agents the problem of deciding what to do next becomes increasingly complex when acting in unpredictable and dynamic environments pursuing multiple and possibly conflicting goals. One of the most relevant behavior-based model that tries to deal with this problem is the one proposed by Maes, the Bbehavior Network model. This model proposes a set of behaviors as purposive perception-action units which are linked in a nonhierarchical network, and whose behavior selection process i...

  6. Decision modeling for analyzing fire action outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald MacGregor; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

    2008-01-01

    A methodology for incident decomposition and reconstruction is developed based on the concept of an "event-frame model." The event-frame model characterizes a fire incident in terms of (a) environmental events that pertain to the fire and the fire context (e.g., fire behavior, weather, fuels) and (b) management events that represent responses to the fire...

  7. An Integrated Framework for Process-Driven Model Construction in Disease Ecology and Animal Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancy, Rebecca; Brock, Patrick M; Kao, Rowland R

    2017-01-01

    Process models that focus on explicitly representing biological mechanisms are increasingly important in disease ecology and animal health research. However, the large number of process modelling approaches makes it difficult to decide which is most appropriate for a given disease system and research question. Here, we discuss different motivations for using process models and present an integrated conceptual analysis that can be used to guide the construction of infectious disease process models and comparisons between them. Our presentation complements existing work by clarifying the major differences between modelling approaches and their relationship with the biological characteristics of the epidemiological system. We first discuss distinct motivations for using process models in epidemiological research, identifying the key steps in model design and use associated with each. We then present a conceptual framework for guiding model construction and comparison, organised according to key aspects of epidemiological systems. Specifically, we discuss the number and type of disease states, whether to focus on individual hosts (e.g., cows) or groups of hosts (e.g., herds or farms), how space or host connectivity affect disease transmission, whether demographic and epidemiological processes are periodic or can occur at any time, and the extent to which stochasticity is important. We use foot-and-mouth disease and bovine tuberculosis in cattle to illustrate our discussion and support explanations of cases in which different models are used to address similar problems. The framework should help those constructing models to structure their approach to modelling decisions and facilitate comparisons between models in the literature.

  8. A Decision Support Concept for a construction design project – selecting the type of glass façade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franjo Šimić

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes research into the possibility of developing a concept for supporting decisions in planning construction projects (one of the most important stages of construction project management. The focus is on supporting decisions in selecting the type of and solution for the glass façade in the main design. Materials and types of soluteons for a glass façade were analyzed and alternative solutions were obtained. The concept was developed in that it included relevant stakeholders in the decision-making process during the construction design. These stakeholders were the investor, architect, and construction contractor. The analysis was carried out and a hierarchical structure of objectives was formed as a goal tree. The criteria at the last hierarchical level were used to evaluate alternative solutions for the glass façade, and their weights were determined by all stakeholders using the AHP method (Analytic Hierarchy Process. Using PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Method for Enrichment Evaluation, a comparison of alternative solutions for the glass façade was conducted and the alternatives were ranked according to the priorities for inclusion into the main design. The concept was tested by selecting a type of glass façade on a residential-commercial building in the city of Rijeka, Croatia.

  9. Approach to Organizational Structure Modelling in Construction Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilin Igor V.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective management system is one of the key factors of business success nowadays. Construction companies usually have a portfolio of independent projects running at the same time. Thus it is reasonable to take into account project orientation of such kind of business while designing the construction companies’ management system, which main components are business process system and organizational structure. The paper describes the management structure designing approach, based on the project-oriented nature of the construction projects, and propose a model of the organizational structure for the construction company. Application of the proposed approach will enable to assign responsibilities within the organizational structure in construction projects effectively and thus to shorten the time for projects allocation and to provide its smoother running. The practical case of using the approach also provided in the paper.

  10. Research on efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system based on hybrid multi-attribute decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan

    2017-05-25

    The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.

  11. Decision Support Tool for Nighttime Construction and Air Quality - User’s Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-01

    The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Research Project 0-6864 Investigate the Air Quality Benefits of Nighttime Construction in Non-attainment Counties investigated the potential air quality benefits of shifting construction/maintenance acti...

  12. A conceptual model of psychological contracts in construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongjian Ke

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The strategic importance of relationship style contracting is recognised in the construction industry. Both public and private sector clients are stipulating more integrated and collaborative forms of procurement. Despite relationship and integrated contractual arrangement being available for some time, it is clear that construction firms have been slow to adopt them. Hence it is timely to examine how social exchanges, via unwritten agreement and behaviours, are being nurtured in construction projects. This paper adopted the concept of Psychological Contracts (PC to describe unwritten agreement and behaviours. A conceptual model of the PC is developed and validated using the results from a questionnaire survey administered to construction professionals in Australia. The results uncovered the relationships that existed amongst relational conditions and relational benefits, the PC and the partners’ satisfaction. The results show that all the hypotheses in the conceptual model of the PC are supported, suggesting the PC model is important and may have an effect on project performance and relationship quality among contracting parties. A validated model of the PC in construction was then developed based on the correlations among each component. The managerial implications are that past relationships and relationship characteristics should be taken into account in the selection of procurement partners and the promise of future resources, support and tangible relational outcomes are also vital. It is important for contracting parties to pay attention to unwritten agreements (the PC and behaviours when managing construction projects.

  13. DEVELOPING A MODEL TO ENHANCE LABOR PRODUCTIVITY USING BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION BENCHMARK DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seonghoon Kim

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The Labor Working Status Monitoring (LWSM Model that incorporates the WRITE and the industry benchmark data was developed through the five steps to enhance labor producitivty in bridge construction operations. The first step of the development process was to conduct a literature review, followed by the second step which was to develop the WRITE. During the development, the authors identified the necessary hardware and software for the WRITE and outlined a schematic to show the connection of major hardware components. The third step was to develop the LWSM Model for monitoring the on-site construction labor working status by comparing data from the WRITE with the industry benchmark data. A survey methodology was used to acquire industry benchmark data from bridge construction experts. The fourth step was to demonstrate the implementation of the LWSM Model at a bridge construction site. During this phase, labor working status data collected using the WRITE was compared with the benchmark data to form the basis for the project managers and engineers to make efficiency improvement decisions. Finally, research findings and recommendations for future research were outlined. The success of this research made several contributions to the advancement of bridge construction. First, it advances the application of wireless technology in construction management. Second, it provides an advanced technology for project managers and engineers to share labor working status information among project participants. Finally, using the developed technology, project managers and engineers can quickly identify labor efficiency problems and take action to address these problems.

  14. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process, National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy...

  15. Software Tools For Building Decision-support Models For Flood Emergency Situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrote, L.; Molina, M.; Ruiz, J. M.; Mosquera, J. C.

    The SAIDA decision-support system was developed by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment to provide assistance to decision-makers during flood situations. SAIDA has been tentatively implemented in two test basins: Jucar and Guadalhorce, and the Ministry is currently planning to have it implemented in all major Spanish basins in a few years' time. During the development cycle of SAIDA, the need for providing as- sistance to end-users in model definition and calibration was clearly identified. System developers usually emphasise abstraction and generality with the goal of providing a versatile software environment. End users, on the other hand, require concretion and specificity to adapt the general model to their local basins. As decision-support models become more complex, the gap between model developers and users gets wider: Who takes care of model definition, calibration and validation?. Initially, model developers perform these tasks, but the scope is usually limited to a few small test basins. Before the model enters operational stage, end users must get involved in model construction and calibration, in order to gain confidence in the model recommendations. However, getting the users involved in these activities is a difficult task. The goal of this re- search is to develop representation techniques for simulation and management models in order to define, develop and validate a mechanism, supported by a software envi- ronment, oriented to provide assistance to the end-user in building decision models for the prediction and management of river floods in real time. The system is based on three main building blocks: A library of simulators of the physical system, an editor to assist the user in building simulation models, and a machine learning method to calibrate decision models based on the simulation models provided by the user.

  16. CHALLENGES IN MEASURING A NEW CONSTRUCT : PERCEPTION OF VOLUNTARINESS FOR RESEARCH AND TREATMENT DECISION MAKING

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miller, Victoria A.; Reynolds, William W.; Ittenbach, Richard F.; Luce, Mary Frances; Beauchamp, Tom L.; Nelson, Robert M.

    RELIABLE AND VALID MEASURES OF RELEVANT constructs are critical in the developing field of the empirical study of research ethics. The early phases of scale development for such constructs can be complex. We describe the methodological challenges of construct definition and operationalization and

  17. Farmer's Friend Biodigester Model Construction Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-11-15

    The success or failure of any biodigester depends mainly upon the suitability of the design, site for construction and quality of construction works, as well as quality of construction materials and workmanship involved during construction. This booklet provides the extensive information on various methods for selecting the appropriate size and site for construction, as well as construction work steps related to the Farmer's Friend model (2005) of biodigester. First, mason's responsibilities are explained. Second, the report continues with the sizes of available biodigesters and the quantity of feeding required. Then, the components of the biogas plant and instructions as to how to select the appropriate size are described. It continues with construction materials and appliances, and the selection of the construction site. Finally, the plant construction is explained from lay-out work to the construction of compost pits, finishing work and instructions to users. If the concerned mason/plumber strictly follows the instruction as described in this construction manual, the biodigester will function properly with the anticipated efficiency and the owner will get the return of his/her investment. This will encourage his/her relatives and neighbours to install biodigesters. However, if the biodigester functions poorly, nobody will be motivated to install it. Poor quality plants will harm the reputation of biogas technology and will have serious negative effects on promotion and extension activities. The masons should, therefore, be well aware that good quality plants will certainly increase the rate of installation with the demonstration effect that ultimately benefits itself, the farmer, and the country as a whole.

  18. Unicriterion Model: A Qualitative Decision Making Method That Promotes Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Guilherme Silvano Lobo Pimentel

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Management decision making methods frequently adopt quantitativemodels of several criteria that bypass the question of whysome criteria are considered more important than others, whichmakes more difficult the task of delivering a transparent viewof preference structure priorities that might promote ethics andlearning and serve as a basis for future decisions. To tackle thisparticular shortcoming of usual methods, an alternative qualitativemethodology of aggregating preferences based on the rankingof criteria is proposed. Such an approach delivers a simpleand transparent model for the solution of each preference conflictfaced during the management decision making process. Themethod proceeds by breaking the decision problem into ‘two criteria– two alternatives’ scenarios, and translating the problem ofchoice between alternatives to a problem of choice between criteriawhenever appropriate. The unicriterion model method is illustratedby its application in a car purchase and a house purchasedecision problem.

  19. Methodology and preliminary models for analyzing nuclear safeguards decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-11-01

    This report describes a general analytical tool designed to assist the NRC in making nuclear safeguards decisions. The approach is based on decision analysis--a quantitative procedure for making decisions under uncertain conditions. The report: describes illustrative models that quantify the probability and consequences of diverted special nuclear material and the costs of safeguarding the material, demonstrates a methodology for using this information to set safeguards regulations (safeguards criteria), and summarizes insights gained in a very preliminary assessment of a hypothetical reprocessing plant

  20. Methodology and preliminary models for analyzing nuclear-safeguards decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judd, B.R.; Weissenberger, S.

    1978-11-01

    This report describes a general analytical tool designed with Lawrence Livermore Laboratory to assist the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in making nuclear safeguards decisions. The approach is based on decision analysis - a quantitative procedure for making decisions under uncertain conditions. The report: describes illustrative models that quantify the probability and consequences of diverted special nuclear material and the costs of safeguarding the material; demonstrates a methodology for using this information to set safeguards regulations (safeguards criteria); and summarizes insights gained in a very preliminary assessment of a hypothetical reprocessing plant

  1. Transformation of Malaysian Construction Industry with Building Information Modelling (BIM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Latiffi Aryani Ahmad

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Building Information Modelling (BIM is a revolution of technology and a process that transformed the way building is planned, designed, analysed, constructed and managed. The revolution of technology and process could increase the quality of construction projects. The knowledge of BIM has been expanding in many countries including Malaysia. Since its inception, the use of BIM has broadened up widely with different purposes. The aims of this paper is to investigate the BIM implementation and uses in Malaysian construction projects. The methodologies adopted for structuring this paper are by using literature review and semi-structured interview with construction players that have experienced and being involved in projects using BIM. The purpose of literature review is to illustrate on the pervious research on the subject matter. Meanwhile, the purpose of interviews is to explore the involvement of construction players, years of experience in projects using BIM and BIM uses in construction projects. The findings revealed that BIM has been implemented in Malaysia since 2007 by various construction players, which are client, architect, C&S engineer, M&E engineer, QS, contractor, facilities manager and BIM consultant. The findings also revealed that BIM is used for project’ visualisation, improving project design, detecting design clashes, quantity take off and operation and maintenance. Further work will be focused on the current practices of construction players in projects using BIM.

  2. A probabilistic model for US nuclear power construction times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shash, A.A.H.

    1988-01-01

    Construction time for nuclear power plants is an important element in planning for resources to meet future load demands. Analysis of actual versus estimated construction times for past US nuclear power plants indicates that utilities have continuously underestimated their power plants' construction durations. The analysis also indicates that the actual average construction time has been increasing upward, and the actual durations of power plants permitted to construct in the same year varied substantially. This study presents two probabilistic models for nuclear power construction time for use by the nuclear industry as estimating tool. The study also presents a detailed explanation of the factors that are responsible for increasing and varying nuclear power construction times. Observations on 91 complete nuclear units were involved in three interdependent analyses in the process of explanation and derivation of the probabilistic models. The historical data was first utilized in the data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the purpose of obtaining frontier index measures for project management achievement in building nuclear power plants

  3. Constructing Multidatabase Collections Using Extended ODMG Object Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Skehill Mark Roantree

    1999-11-01

    Full Text Available Collections are an important feature in database systems. They provide us with the ability to group objects of interest together, and then to manipulate them in the required fashion. The OASIS project is focused on the construction a multidatabase prototype which uses the ODMG model and a canonical model. As part of this work we have extended the base model to provide a more powerful collection mechanism, and to permit the construction of a federated collection, a collection of heterogenous objects taken from distributed data sources

  4. A New Group Decision Model Based on Grey-Intuitionistic Fuzzy-ELECTRE and VIKOR for Contractor Assessment Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Hashemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study introduces a new decision model with multi-criteria analysis by a group of decision makers (DMs with intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs. The presented model depends on a new integration of IFSs theory, ELECTRE and VIKOR along with grey relational analysis (GRA. To portray uncertain real-life situations and take account of complex decision problem, multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM model by totally unknown importance are introduced with IF-setting. Hence, a weighting method depended on Entropy and IFSs, is developed to present the weights of DMs and evaluation factors. A new ranking approach is provided for prioritizing the alternatives. To indicate the applicability of the presented new decision model, an industrial application for assessing contractors in the construction industry is given and discussed from the recent literature.

  5. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund

    2014-01-01

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  6. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Trueby, Johannes [International Energy Agency, 75 - Paris (France)

    2014-04-15

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  7. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

  8. Towards a Decision Making Model for City Break Travel

    OpenAIRE

    Dunne, Gerard; Flanagan, Sheila; Buckley, Joan

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the city break travel decision and in particular to develop a decision making model that reflects the characteristics of this type of trip taking. Method The research follows a sequential mixed methods approach consisting of two phases. Phase One involves a quantitative survey of 1,000 visitors to Dublin, from which city break and non city break visitor cohorts are separated and compared. Phase Two entails a qualitative analysis (involvin...

  9. Neuro-Based Artificial Intelligence Model for Loan Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Shorouq F. Eletter; Saad G. Yaseen; Ghaleb A. Elrefae

    2010-01-01

    Problem statement: Despite the increase in consumer loans defaults and competition in the banking market, most of the Jordanian commercial banks are reluctant to use artificial intelligence software systems for supporting loan decisions. Approach: This study developed a proposed model that identifies artificial neural network as an enabling tool for evaluating credit applications to support loan decisions in the Jordanian Commercial banks. A multi-layer feed-forward neural network with backpr...

  10. Simulation-based modeling of building complexes construction management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepelev, Aleksandr; Severova, Galina; Potashova, Irina

    2018-03-01

    The study reported here examines the experience in the development and implementation of business simulation games based on network planning and management of high-rise construction. Appropriate network models of different types and levels of detail have been developed; a simulation model including 51 blocks (11 stages combined in 4 units) is proposed.

  11. A construction of observables for AKSZ sigma models

    OpenAIRE

    Mnev, Pavel

    2012-01-01

    A construction of gauge-invariant observables is suggested for a class of topological field theories, the AKSZ sigma-models. The observables are associated to extensions of the target Q-manifold of the sigma model to a Q-bundle over it with additional Hamiltonian structure in fibers.

  12. Social Perception and Social Reality: A Reflection-Construction Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jussim, Lee

    1991-01-01

    A reflection-construction model of relations between social perception and social reality is presented that explicitly specifies several ways in which social perception may relate to social reality. Evidence supporting this model also supports a weaker version of the social-constructivist view. (SLD)

  13. An Environmentally Oriented Constructive Cost Model In Information ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A model was designed to assist software developers in Nigeria to estimate software effort, duration and cost as a result of the difficulties in understanding the parameters of the traditional Constructive Cost Model II (COCOMO II) , which was designed for a specif ic environment, using Source Lines of Code (SLOC) . Results ...

  14. Modeling Of Construction Noise For Environmental Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed F. Hamoda

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study measured the noise levels generated at different construction sites in reference to the stage of construction and the equipment used, and examined the methods to predict such noise in order to assess the environmental impact of noise. It included 33 construction sites in Kuwait and used artificial neural networks (ANNs for the prediction of noise. A back-propagation neural network (BPNN model was compared with a general regression neural network (GRNN model. The results obtained indicated that the mean equivalent noise level was 78.7 dBA which exceeds the threshold limit. The GRNN model was superior to the BPNN model in its accuracy of predicting construction noise due to its ability to train quickly on sparse data sets. Over 93% of the predictions were within 5% of the observed values. The mean absolute error between the predicted and observed data was only 2 dBA. The ANN modeling proved to be a useful technique for noise predictions required in the assessment of environmental impact of construction activities.

  15. Measuring and modeling behavioral decision dynamics in collective evacuation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean M Carlson

    Full Text Available Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, our results quantify several key factors influencing individual evacuation decision making in a controlled laboratory setting. The experiment includes tensions between broadcast and peer-to-peer information, and contrasts the effects of temporal urgency associated with the imminence of the disaster and the effects of limited shelter capacity for evacuees. Based on empirical measurements of the cumulative rate of evacuations as a function of the instantaneous disaster likelihood, we develop a quantitative model for decision making that captures remarkably well the main features of observed collective behavior across many different scenarios. Moreover, this model captures the sensitivity of individual- and population-level decision behaviors to external pressures, and systematic deviations from the model provide meaningful estimates of variability in the collective response. Identification of robust methods for quantifying human decisions in the face of risk has implications for policy in disasters and other threat scenarios, specifically the development and testing of robust strategies for training and control of evacuations that account for human behavior and network topologies.

  16. Constructing multi-labelled decision trees for junction design using the predicted probabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bezembinder, Erwin M.; Wismans, Luc J. J.; Van Berkum, Eric C.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we evaluate the use of traditional decision tree algorithms CRT, CHAID and QUEST to determine a decision tree which can be used to predict a set of (Pareto optimal) junction design alternatives (e.g. signal or roundabout) for a given traffic demand pattern and available space. This is

  17. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... The centerpiece of the book's recommended vision is a life-cycle approach to model evaluation which includes peer review, corroboration of results, and other activities. This will enhance the agency's ability to respond to requirements from a 2001 law on information quality and improve policy development and implementation.

  18. An Algorithm for Modelling the Impact of the Judicial Conflict-Resolution Process on Construction Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Bugajev

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the modelling of the judicial conflict-resolution process is considered from a construction investor’s point of view. Such modelling is important for improving the risk management for construction investors and supporting sustainable city development by supporting the development of rules regulating the construction process. Thus, this raises the problem of evaluation of different decisions and selection of the optimal one followed by distribution extraction. First, the example of such a process is analysed and schematically represented. Then, it is formalised as a graph, which is described in the form of a decision graph with cycles. We use some natural problem properties and provide the algorithm to convert this graph into a tree. Then, we propose the algorithm to evaluate profits for different scenarios with estimation of time, which is done by integration of an average daily costs function. Afterwards, the optimisation problem is solved and the optimal investor strategy is obtained—this allows one to extract the construction project profit distribution, which can be used for further analysis by standard risk (and other important information-evaluation techniques. The overall algorithm complexity is analysed, the computational experiment is performed and conclusions are formulated.

  19. Perceptual decision neurosciences: a model-based review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, M.J.; van Maanen, L.; Forstmann, B.U.

    2014-01-01

    In this review we summarize findings published over the past 10 years focusing on the neural correlates of perceptual decision-making. Importantly, this review highlights only studies that employ a model-based approach, i.e., they use quantitative cognitive models in combination with neuroscientific

  20. Decision support for natural resource management; models and evaluation methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; Makowski, M.; Nakayama, H.

    2001-01-01

    When managing natural resources or agrobusinesses, one always has to deal with autonomous processes. These autonomous processes play a core role in designing model-based decision support systems. This chapter tries to give insight into the question of which types of models might be used in which

  1. A Utility Model for Teaching Load Decisions in Academic Departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, William F.; Zemsky, Robert

    1997-01-01

    Presents a utility model for academic department decision making and describes the structural specifications for analyzing it. The model confirms the class-size utility asymmetry predicted by the authors' academic rachet theory, but shows that marginal utility associated with college teaching loads is always negative. Curricular structure and…

  2. Model based decision support for planning of road maintenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Harten, Aart; Worm, J.M.; Worm, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    In this article we describe a Decision Support Model, based on Operational Research methods, for the multi-period planning of maintenance of bituminous pavements. This model is a tool for the road manager to assist in generating an optimal maintenance plan for a road. Optimal means: minimising the

  3. AN ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT TRENDS AND MODELING OF SAFETY INDICES IN AN INDIAN CONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunku Venkata Siva Rajaprasad

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction industry has been recognized as a hazardous industry in many countries due to distinct nature of execution of works.The accident rate in construction sector is high all over the world due to dynamic nature of work activities. Occurrence of accidents and its severity in construction industry is several times higher than the manufacturing industries. The study was limited to a major construction organization in India to examine the trends in construction accidents for the period 2008-2014. In India, safety performance is gauged basing on safety indices; frequency, severity and incidence rates. It is not practicable to take decisions or to implement safety strategies on the basis of indices. The data used for this study was collected from a leading construction organization involved in execution of major construction activities all over India and abroad. The multiple regression method was adopted to model the pattern of safety indices wise .The pattern showed that significant relationships exist between the three safety indices and the related independent variables.

  4. Towards the Significance of Decision Aid in Building Information Modeling (BIM Software Selection Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Mohd Faizal

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Building Information Modeling (BIM has been considered as a solution in construction industry to numerous problems such as delays, increased lead in times and increased costs. This is due to the concept and characteristic of BIM that will reshaped the way construction project teams work together to increase productivity and improve the final project outcomes (cost, time, quality, safety, functionality, maintainability, etc.. As a result, the construction industry has witnesses numerous of BIM software available in market. Each of this software has offers different function, features. Furthermore, the adoption of BIM required high investment on software, hardware and also training expenses. Thus, there is indentified that there is a need of decision aid for appropriated BIM software selection that fulfill the project needs. However, research indicates that there is limited study attempt to guide decision in BIM software selection problem. Thus, this paper highlight the importance of decision making and support for BIM software selection as it is vital to increase productivity, construction project throughout building lifecycle.

  5. A multicriteria model for ranking of improvement approaches in construction companies based on the PROMETHÉE II method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Maciel de Melo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The quality of the construction production process may be improved using several different methods such as Lean Construction, ISO 9001, ISO 14001 or ISO 18001. Construction companies need a preliminary study and systematic implementation of changes to become more competitive and efficient. This paper presents a multicriteria decision model for the selection and ranking of such alternatives for improvement approaches regarding the aspects of quality, sustainability and safety, based on the PROMETHEE II method. The adoption of this model provides more confidence and visibility for decision makers. One of the differentiators of this model is the use of a fragmented set of improvement alternatives. These alternatives were combined with some restrictions to create a global set of alternatives. An application to three scenarios, considering realistic data, was developed. The results of the application show that the model should be incorporated into the strategic planning process of organizations.

  6. INCREASED COMPETITIVENESS OF CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES ON THE BASIS OF ORGANISATIONAL-ECONOMIC DECISIONS OF PERSONNEL POTENTIAL MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Emirbekova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. The development of an algorithm for optimising the formation and use of human resources of a construction enterprise.Methods. The research basis consists in a generalised methodology  for personnel management, as well as specific methods for logical  and statistical analysis of management decision-making in  construction activities. The approaches, criteria, indicators and methods for assessing the effectiveness of human resource  management are studied alongside factors influencing the efficiency  resource potential management in a construction enterprise.Results. A quantitative methodology for the selection of qualified  staff for the implementation of construction projects is proposed.  The indicators of the effectiveness of the staff potential are  determined. Qualitative and quantitative data for the optimal  personnel formation for the construction project realisation are  systematised. An algorithm for optimising the personnel potential of  a construction enterprise is proposed. The use of this algorithm will  inform the choice of organisational and economic solutions for the  formation and effective use of qualified personnel at the expense of  combining professions, thereby reducing the cost and duration of construction work and increasing the resource efficiency and competitiveness of the construction enterprise.Conclusion. The labour potential of a construction enterprise can  significantly contribute to increased efficiency if it is used  appropriately and in an organised manner, using modern scientific  methods of management. Methods for building and organising the  activity of the personnel management system are proposed and a  mechanism for establishing relationships between the employer and employees that promote the most effective use of all types of resources for the development of the enterprise according to  strategic objectives is disclosed. The dominant role of the

  7. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Leonardo Emanuel; Haimovici, Ariel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Montoya, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls (HCs). In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and HCs at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in HCs was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis. PMID:25136301

  8. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Emanuel Hess

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls. In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and healthy controls at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in healthy controls was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis.

  9. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Leonardo Emanuel; Haimovici, Ariel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Montoya, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients' behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls (HCs). In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals' choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and HCs at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in HCs was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis.

  10. Nuclear power plants. Construction status report, data as of June 30, 1977. Data for decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-07-01

    The report is designed to provide the necessary information for monitoring the progress of construction of nuclear power plants. It provides data for synchronizing the licensing process with predicted fuel loading dates, as well as providing a central federal government report for commercial reactor construction. It utilizes data collected from the utilities sponsoring these projects and the Office of Inspection and Enforcement, NRC, and analyzed by the Office of Management Information and Program Control in the implementation of Management Information Systems. The status of the 92 plants authorized to engage in construction activities is summarized. This total includes 4 plants with construction exemptions, and 18 plants with Limited Work Authorization Permits

  11. Consumer's Online Shopping Influence Factors and Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiangbin; Dai, Shiliang

    Previous research on online consumer behavior has mostly been confined to the perceived risk which is used to explain those barriers for purchasing online. However, perceived benefit is another important factor which influences consumers’ decision when shopping online. As a result, an integrated consumer online shopping decision-making model is developed which contains three elements—Consumer, Product, and Web Site. This model proposed relative factors which influence the consumers’ intention during the online shopping progress, and divided them into two different dimensions—mentally level and material level. We tested those factors with surveys, from both online volunteers and offline paper surveys with more than 200 samples. With the help of SEM, the experimental results show that the proposed model and method can be used to analyze consumer’s online shopping decision-making process effectively.

  12. The Pedagogical Reflection Model - an educational perspective on clinical decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Voergaard Poulsen, Bettina; Vibholm Persson, Stine; Skriver, Mette

    Clinical decision-making is important in patient-centred nursing, which is known in nursing education and research (1) The Pedagogical Reflection Model (PRM) can provide a framework that supports students’ decision-making in patient-specific situations. PRM is based on the assumption that clinical......) The aims of this study were to explore how nurse students and clinical supervisors use PRM as method to reflect before, during and after PRM guidance in relation to clinical decisions in the first year of clinical practice...... decision-making needs to take into account; 1) clinical experiences, 2) the perspective of the patient, 3) clinical observations and investigations, 4) knowledge about patients experiences of being a patient and ill, 5) medical knowledge about diseases, and 6) the organizational framework (2,3,4)(Figure 1...

  13. Virtual Models Linked with Physical Components in Construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kristian Birch

    The use of virtual models supports a fundamental change in the working practice of the construction industry. It changes the primary information carrier (drawings) from simple manually created depictions of the building under construction to visually realistic digital representations that also...... engineering and business development in an iterative and user needs centred system development process. The analysis of future business perspectives presents an extensive number of new working processes that can assist in solving major challenges in the construction industry. Three of the most promising...... practices and development of new ontologies. Based on the experiences gained in this PhD project, some of the important future challenges are also to show the benefits of using modern information and communication technology to practitioners in the construction industry and to communicate this knowledge...

  14. System dynamic modeling on construction waste management in Shenzhen, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Vivian W Y; Li, Jingru; Cai, Hong

    2014-05-01

    This article examines the complexity of construction waste management in Shenzhen, Mainland China. In-depth analysis of waste generation, transportation, recycling, landfill and illegal dumping of various inherent management phases is explored. A system dynamics modeling using Stella model is developed. Effects of landfill charges and also penalties from illegal dumping are also simulated. The results show that the implementation of comprehensive policy on both landfill charges and illegal dumping can effectively control the illegal dumping behavior, and achieve comprehensive construction waste minimization. This article provides important recommendations for effective policy implementation and explores new perspectives for Shenzhen policy makers.

  15. Decision-Making Theories and Models: A Discussion of Rational and Psychological Decision-Making Theories and Models: The Search for a Cultural-Ethical Decision-Making Model

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Arnaldo

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines rational and psychological decision-making models. Descriptive and normative methodologies such as attribution theory, schema theory, prospect theory, ambiguity model, game theory, and expected utility theory are discussed. The definition of culture is reviewed, and the relationship between culture and decision making is also highlighted as many organizations use a cultural-ethical decision-making model.

  16. Modelling and simulation-based acquisition decision support: present & future

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, S

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 24551 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 1 Modelling & Simulation...-Based Acquisition Decision Support: Present & Future Shahen Naidoo Abstract The Ground Based Air Defence System (GBADS) Programme, of the South African Army has been applying modelling and simulation (M&S) to provide acquisition decision and doctrine...

  17. A decision model for energy resource selection in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Bing; Kocaoglu, Dundar F.; Daim, Tugrul U.; Yang Jiting

    2010-01-01

    This paper evaluates coal, petroleum, natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy resources as energy alternatives for China through use of a hierarchical decision model. The results indicate that although coal is still the major preferred energy alternative, it is followed closely by renewable energy. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the most critical criterion for energy selection is the current energy infrastructure. A hierarchical decision model is used, and expert judgments are quantified, to evaluate the alternatives. Criteria used for the evaluations are availability, current energy infrastructure, price, safety, environmental impacts and social impacts.

  18. A Mining Algorithm for Extracting Decision Process Data Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina-Claudia DOLEAN

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces an algorithm that mines logs of user interaction with simulation software. It outputs a model that explicitly shows the data perspective of the decision process, namely the Decision Data Model (DDM. In the first part of the paper we focus on how the DDM is extracted by our mining algorithm. We introduce it as pseudo-code and, then, provide explanations and examples of how it actually works. In the second part of the paper, we use a series of small case studies to prove the robustness of the mining algorithm and how it deals with the most common patterns we found in real logs.

  19. Event-based soil loss models for construction sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

    2015-05-01

    The elevated rates of soil erosion stemming from land clearing and grading activities during urban development, can result in excessive amounts of eroded sediments entering waterways and causing harm to the biota living therein. However, construction site event-based soil loss simulations - required for reliable design of erosion and sediment controls - are one of the most uncertain types of hydrologic models. This study presents models with improved degree of accuracy to advance the design of erosion and sediment controls for construction sites. The new models are developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) on event-based permutations of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and artificial neural networks (ANN). These models were developed using surface runoff monitoring datasets obtained from three sites - Greensborough, Cookstown, and Alcona - in Ontario and datasets mined from the literature for three additional sites - Treynor, Iowa, Coshocton, Ohio and Cordoba, Spain. The predictive MLR and ANN models can serve as both diagnostic and design tools for the effective sizing of erosion and sediment controls on active construction sites, and can be used for dynamic scenario forecasting when considering rapidly changing land use conditions during various phases of construction.

  20. Comprehensible knowledge model creation for cancer treatment decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afzal, Muhammad; Hussain, Maqbool; Ali Khan, Wajahat; Ali, Taqdir; Lee, Sungyoung; Huh, Eui-Nam; Farooq Ahmad, Hafiz; Jamshed, Arif; Iqbal, Hassan; Irfan, Muhammad; Abbas Hydari, Manzar

    2017-03-01

    A wealth of clinical data exists in clinical documents in the form of electronic health records (EHRs). This data can be used for developing knowledge-based recommendation systems that can assist clinicians in clinical decision making and education. One of the big hurdles in developing such systems is the lack of automated mechanisms for knowledge acquisition to enable and educate clinicians in informed decision making. An automated knowledge acquisition methodology with a comprehensible knowledge model for cancer treatment (CKM-CT) is proposed. With the CKM-CT, clinical data are acquired automatically from documents. Quality of data is ensured by correcting errors and transforming various formats into a standard data format. Data preprocessing involves dimensionality reduction and missing value imputation. Predictive algorithm selection is performed on the basis of the ranking score of the weighted sum model. The knowledge builder prepares knowledge for knowledge-based services: clinical decisions and education support. Data is acquired from 13,788 head and neck cancer (HNC) documents for 3447 patients, including 1526 patients of the oral cavity site. In the data quality task, 160 staging values are corrected. In the preprocessing task, 20 attributes and 106 records are eliminated from the dataset. The Classification and Regression Trees (CRT) algorithm is selected and provides 69.0% classification accuracy in predicting HNC treatment plans, consisting of 11 decision paths that yield 11 decision rules. Our proposed methodology, CKM-CT, is helpful to find hidden knowledge in clinical documents. In CKM-CT, the prediction models are developed to assist and educate clinicians for informed decision making. The proposed methodology is generalizable to apply to data of other domains such as breast cancer with a similar objective to assist clinicians in decision making and education. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A Model of Decision-Making Based on Critical Thinking

    OpenAIRE

    Uluçınar, Ufuk; Aypay, Ahmet

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the causal relationships between high school students' inquisitiveness, open-mindedness, causal thinking, and rational and intuitive decision-making dispositions through an assumed model based on research data. This study was designed in correlational model. Confirmatory factor analysis and path analysis, which are structural equation modelling applications, were used to explain these relationships. The participants were 404 students studying in five high s...

  2. Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinert, Joshua M.; Apostolakis, George E.

    2006-01-01

    Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and are known to have significant model uncertainties. Because we work with basic event probabilities, this methodology is not appropriate for analyzing uncertainties that cause a structural change to the model, such as success criteria. We use the risk achievement worth (RAW) importance measure with respect to both the core damage frequency (CDF) and the change in core damage frequency (ΔCDF) to identify potentially important basic events. We cross-check these with generically important model uncertainties. Then, sensitivity analysis is performed on the basic event probabilities, which are used as a proxy for the model parameters, to determine how much error in these probabilities would need to be present in order to impact the decision. A previously submitted licensing basis change is used as a case study. Analysis using the SAPHIRE program identifies 20 basic events as important, four of which have model uncertainties that have been identified in the literature as generally important. The decision is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in these basic events. In three of these cases, one would need to show that model uncertainties would lead to basic event probabilities that would be between two and four orders of magnitude larger than modeled in the risk assessment before they would become important to the decision. More detailed analysis would be required to determine whether these higher probabilities are reasonable. Methods to perform this analysis from the literature are reviewed and an example is demonstrated using the case study

  3. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical

  4. Dual processing model of medical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

    2012-09-03

    Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. We show that physician's beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker's threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the

  5. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Djulbegovic Benjamin

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to

  6. An Environmental Management Maturity Model of Construction Programs Using the AHP-Entropy Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The accelerating process of urbanization in China has led to considerable opportunities for the development of construction projects, however, environmental issues have become an important constraint on the implementation of these projects. To quantitatively describe the environmental management capabilities of such projects, this paper proposes a 2-dimensional Environmental Management Maturity Model of Construction Program (EMMMCP based on an analysis of existing projects, group management theory and a management maturity model. In this model, a synergetic process was included to compensate for the lack of consideration of synergies in previous studies, and it was involved in the construction of the first dimension, i.e., the environmental management index system. The second dimension, i.e., the maturity level of environment management, was then constructed by redefining the hierarchical characteristics of construction program (CP environmental management maturity. Additionally, a mathematical solution to this proposed model was derived via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP-entropy approach. To verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model, a computational experiment was conducted, and the results show that this approach could not only measure the individual levels of different processes, but also achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for stakeholders when making decisions on the environmental management of construction program, which reflects this model is reasonable for evaluating the level of environmental management maturity in CP. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the environmental management maturity levels of CP, which would fill the gap between project program management and environmental management and provide a reference for relevant management personnel to enhance their environmental management capabilities.

  7. Incentive Model Based on Cooperative Relationship in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the cooperative relationship between owners and contractors in sustainable construction projects, as well as the synergistic effects created by cooperative behaviors, a cooperative incentive model was developed using game theory. The model was formulated and analyzed under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations. Then, a numerical simulation and example were proposed to verify the conclusions derived from the model. The results showed that the synergistic effect increases the input intensity of one party’s resource transfer into the increase of marginal utility of the other party, thus the owner and contractor are willing to enhance their levels of effort. One party’s optimal benefit allocation coefficient is positively affected by its own output efficiency, and negatively affected by the other party’s output efficiency. The effort level and expected benefits of the owner and contractor can be improved by enhancing the cooperative relationship between the two parties, as well as enhancing the net benefits of a sustainable construction project. The synergistic effect cannot lower the negative effect of moral hazard behaviors during the implementation of sustainable construction projects. Conversely, the higher levels of the cooperative relationship, the wider the gaps amongst the optimal values under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations for the levels of effort, expected benefits and net project benefits. Since few studies to date have emphasized the effects of cooperative relationship on sustainable construction projects, this study constructed a game-based incentive model to bridge the gaps. This study contributes significant theoretical and practical insights into the management of cooperation amongst stakeholders, and into the enhancement of the overall benefits of sustainable construction projects.

  8. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  9. The decision book fifty models for strategic thinking

    CERN Document Server

    Krogerus, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Most of us face the same questions every day: What do I want? And how can I get it? How can I live more happily and work more efficiently? A worldwide bestseller, The Decision Book distils into a single volume the fifty best decision-making models used on MBA courses and elsewhere that will help you tackle these important questions - from the well known (the Eisenhower matrix for time management) to the less familiar but equally useful (the Swiss Cheese model). It will even show you how to remember everything you will have learned by the end of it. Stylish and compact, this little black book is a powerful asset. Whether you need to plot a presentation, assess someone's business idea or get to know yourself better, this unique guide will help you simplify any problem and take steps towards the right decision.

  10. Model construction by students within an integrated medical curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barling, Peter M; Ramasamy, Perumal

    2011-03-01

    This paper presents our experience of running a special study module (SSM) in the second semester of the first year of our 5-year medical programme, worth 10 per cent of that semester's assessment, in which each student constructs an individually selected model illustrating a specific aspect of the teaching course. Each student conceptualises and develops his or her model, to clarify a specific aspect of medical teaching. The use of non-traditional materials in construction is strongly encouraged. Six weeks later, each student presents their model for assessment by four first-year academic teaching staff. The student is quizzed about the concepts that he or she presents, the mode of construction and the materials used. The students' projects broadly cover the disciplines of physiology, biochemistry and anatomy, but are somewhat biased towards anatomy. Students spend on average about 14 hours planning and building their models, at a time when they are busy with other teaching activities. The marks awarded for the projects closely follow a normal distribution. A survey suggests that most students enjoy the exercise and feel that it has enhanced their learning and understanding. It is clear from the wide variety of different topics, models and materials that students are highly resourceful in their modelling. Creative activity does not generally play a substantial part in medical education, but is of considerable importance. The development of their models stimulates, informs and educates the constructors, and provides a teaching resource for later use in didactic teaching. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2011.

  11. The role of business models in Finnish construction companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aki Pekuri

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Business models are seen as an essential part of successful businesses as they define the way companies create value for their customers and subsequently make profit from their operations. A good business model has a potential to separate a company from its competitors by creating a competitive advantage. The purpose of this research is to explore how managers understand and deploy the business model concept in construction. For this, eight experienced managers have been interviewed and their answers have been analysed using the theoretical aspects of business models as a reference. In the interviews, managers deployed business model concept very differently than what is accustomed in practice and in academia; they relate these models to different project delivery and contract structures or to companies’ business segments rather than to analysing how their companies provide value for customers in the selected markets. The results of the interviews indicate that the managers in construction do neither understand the concept properly nor exploit any similar value creation analysis in their business. The interviewees had significant problems describing their companies’ business models and value creation logic, pointing out the lack of analysis and understanding of customer values and needs in the project delivery process. This may be one of the overtones of the persistent client dissatisfaction in the construction industry. 

  12. The role of business models in Finnish construction companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aki Pekuri

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Business models are seen as an essential part of successful businesses as they define the way companies create value for their customers and subsequently make profit from their operations. A good business model has a potential to separate a company from its competitors by creating a competitive advantage. The purpose of this research is to explore how managers understand and deploy the business model concept in construction. For this, eight experienced managers have been interviewed and their answers have been analysed using the theoretical aspects of business models as a reference. In the interviews, managers deployed business model concept very differently than what is accustomed in practice and in academia; they relate these models to different project delivery and contract structures or to companies’ business segments rather than to analysing how their companies provide value for customers in the selected markets. The results of the interviews indicate that the managers in construction do neither understand the concept properly nor exploit any similar value creation analysis in their business. The interviewees had significant problems describing their companies’ business models and value creation logic, pointing out the lack of analysis and understanding of customer values and needs in the project delivery process. This may be one of the overtones of the persistent client dissatisfaction in the construction industry.

  13. Peculiarities of constructing the models of mass religious communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrushkevych Maria Stefanivna

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Religious communication is a full-fledged, effective part of the mass information field. It uses new media to fulfil its needs. And it also functions in the field of mass culture and the information society. To describe the features of mass religious communication in the article, the author constructs a graphic model of its functioning.

  14. Seeking a Multi-Construct Model of Morality

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDaniel, Brenda L.; Grice, James W.; Eason, E. Allen

    2010-01-01

    The present study explored a multi-construct model of moral development. Variables commonly seen in the moral development literature, such as family interactions, spiritual life, ascription to various sources of moral authority, empathy, shame, guilt and moral judgement competence, were investigated. Results from the current study support previous…

  15. Queering Constructs: Proposing a Dynamic Gender and Sexuality Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jourian, T. J.

    2015-01-01

    Higher education educators commonly understand social identities, including gender, to be fluid and dynamic. Lev's (2004) model of four components of sexual identity is commonly used to demonstrate the fluidity of sex, gender, and sexuality for individuals, but it does little to address the fixedness of those constructs. Through a multipronged…

  16. A Constructive Neural-Network Approach to Modeling Psychological Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Thomas R.

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews a particular computational modeling approach to the study of psychological development--that of constructive neural networks. This approach is applied to a variety of developmental domains and issues, including Piagetian tasks, shift learning, language acquisition, number comparison, habituation of visual attention, concept…

  17. An Intervention Model of Constructive Conflict Resolution and Cooperative Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Quanwu

    1994-01-01

    Tests an intervention model of constructive conflict resolution (CCR) and cooperative learning in three urban high schools. Findings show that improvements in CCR increased social support and decreased victimization for the students. These changes improved student's attitudes, self-esteem, interpersonal relations, and academic achievement. (GLR)

  18. Construction status report: nuclear power plants, data for decisions. Status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-01-01

    The document is the 28th edition summarizing the results of a management information system established by the Executive Director for Operations on the construction/fuel load activities of nuclear power plants. The report uses data collected from applicants sponsoring these projects, Office of Inspection and Enforcement, and the Office of Standards Development; and analyzed by the Office of Management Information and Program Control in the implementation of Management Information Systems. The status of 87 plants authorized to engage in construction in Region I through V is summarized in this document. This total includes (4) plants with construction exemptions, and (14) plants with an LWA

  19. Narrative Construction, Social Perceptions, and the Situation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costabile, Kristi A

    2016-05-01

    The present investigation examined how three salient features of narrative thinking (situation model construction, linguistic concreteness, and perspective-taking) influenced the social inference process. Results of four experiments indicated that compared with those given other objectives, perceivers given narrative objectives were: (a) more likely to make situation rather than trait attributions for observed behaviors (Experiment 1), (b) less likely to make implicit trait inferences (Experiment 2), and (c) less likely to rely on behavior valence when making evaluative judgments (Experiment 4). Linguistic analyses indicated that narrative construction consistently entailed the creation of situation models of events and linguistic concreteness, but only situation model creation mediated the relationship between narrative and inferences. Experiment 3 confirmed the mediating role of situation models: Perceivers with narrative objectives made trait inferences only when behaviors were inconsistent with contextual information. The role of these core narrative features on social perceptions is discussed. © 2016 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  20. Financial and organizational models of NPP construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Timur

    2010-01-01

    The recent evolution of financial and organizational models of NPP projects can be truly reputed to open a new page of the world market of NPP construction. The definition of the concrete model is based mostly on specific cooperation backgrounds and current terms and conditions under which the particular NPP project is being evolved. In this article the most commonly known strategies and schemes of financing structuring for export NPP construction projects are scrutinized. Special attention is paid to the analysis of BOO/BOT models which are based on the public-private partnership. Most BOO/BOT projects in the power sector has Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) as an integral part of them. The PPA key principles are studied here as well. The flexibility and adaptability of the public-private partnership models for financing and organization of the NPP projects contributes substantially to the competitiveness of the NPP projects especially under current economic conditions. (orig.)

  1. Constructing a relevant decision aid for parents of children with bronchopulmonary dysplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skibo, M; Guillen, U; Zhang, H; Munson, D; Mackley, A; Nilan, K; Kirpalani, H

    2017-12-01

    To develop and test a decision aid for counseling parents of children with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD).Local problem:Parental education about complex conditions is not standardized and communication and understanding may not be adequate. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 33 neonatal clinicians and 12 parents of children with BPD using a qualitative research design. The interviews were used to identify education topics that were felt to be important in BPD education. These topics were then used to create a visual decision aid to be used in counseling sessions with parents. The decision aid was then used in mock counseling sessions with 15 'experienced' participants and 7 'naïve' participants to assess its efficacy. The participants completed a pre and post test to assess change in knowledge as well as an 11-question Likert style acceptability survey. Implementation of a decision aid while educating parents about BPD. Topics identified during the interviews were used to create eight educational cards which included pictures, pictographs and statistics. Overall, participants thought the decision aid contained an appropriate amount of information, were easy to understand and improved their knowledge about BPD. Testing demonstrated a significant increase in knowledge in both the 'experienced' (Pdecision aid for parents of children with BPD may improve understanding of the condition and help facilitate communication between parents and doctors.

  2. Construction and Application Research of Isomap-RVM Credit Assessment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangrong Tong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit assessment is the basis and premise of credit risk management systems. Accurate and scientific credit assessment is of great significance to the operational decisions of shareholders, corporate creditors, and management. Building a good and reliable credit assessment model is key to credit assessment. Traditional credit assessment models are constructed using the support vector machine (SVM combined with certain traditional dimensionality reduction algorithms. When constructing such a model, the dimensionality reduction algorithms are first applied to reduce the dimensions of the samples, so as to prevent the correlation of the samples’ characteristic index from being too high. Then, machine learning of the samples will be conducted using the SVM, in order to carry out classification assessment. To further improve the accuracy of credit assessment methods, this paper has introduced more cutting-edge algorithms, applied isometric feature mapping (Isomap for dimensionality reduction, and used the relevance vector machine (RVM for credit classification. It has constructed an Isomap-RVM model and used it to conduct financial analysis of China's listed companies. The empirical analysis shows that the credit assessment accuracy of the Isomap-RVM model is significantly higher than that of the Isomap-SVM model and slightly higher than that of the PCA-RVM model. It can correctly identify the credit risks of listed companies.

  3. Multi-criteria decision model for retrofitting existing buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Bostenaru Dan

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision is an element in the risk management process. In this paper the way how science can help in decision making and implementation for retrofitting buildings in earthquake prone urban areas is investigated. In such interventions actors from various spheres are involved. Their interests range among minimising the intervention for maximal preservation or increasing it for seismic safety. Research was conducted to see how to facilitate collaboration between these actors. A particular attention was given to the role of time in actors' preferences. For this reason, on decision level, both the processural and the personal dimension of risk management, the later seen as a task, were considered. A systematic approach was employed to determine the functional structure of a participative decision model. Three layers on which actors implied in this multi-criteria decision problem interact were identified: town, building and element. So-called 'retrofit elements' are characteristic bearers in the architectural survey, engineering simulations, costs estimation and define the realms perceived by the inhabitants. This way they represent an interaction basis for the interest groups considered in a deeper study. Such orientation means for actors' interaction were designed on other levels of intervention as well. Finally, an 'experiment' for the implementation of the decision model is presented: a strategic plan for an urban intervention towards reduction of earthquake hazard impact through retrofitting. A systematic approach proves thus to be a very good communication basis among the participants in the seismic risk management process. Nevertheless, it can only be applied in later phases (decision, implementation, control only, since it serves verifying and improving solution and not developing the concept. The 'retrofit elements' are a typical example of the detailing degree reached in the retrofit design plans in these phases.

  4. Multi-criteria decision model for retrofitting existing buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru Dan, M. D.

    2004-08-01

    Decision is an element in the risk management process. In this paper the way how science can help in decision making and implementation for retrofitting buildings in earthquake prone urban areas is investigated. In such interventions actors from various spheres are involved. Their interests range among minimising the intervention for maximal preservation or increasing it for seismic safety. Research was conducted to see how to facilitate collaboration between these actors. A particular attention was given to the role of time in actors' preferences. For this reason, on decision level, both the processural and the personal dimension of risk management, the later seen as a task, were considered. A systematic approach was employed to determine the functional structure of a participative decision model. Three layers on which actors implied in this multi-criteria decision problem interact were identified: town, building and element. So-called 'retrofit elements' are characteristic bearers in the architectural survey, engineering simulations, costs estimation and define the realms perceived by the inhabitants. This way they represent an interaction basis for the interest groups considered in a deeper study. Such orientation means for actors' interaction were designed on other levels of intervention as well. Finally, an 'experiment' for the implementation of the decision model is presented: a strategic plan for an urban intervention towards reduction of earthquake hazard impact through retrofitting. A systematic approach proves thus to be a very good communication basis among the participants in the seismic risk management process. Nevertheless, it can only be applied in later phases (decision, implementation, control) only, since it serves verifying and improving solution and not developing the concept. The 'retrofit elements' are a typical example of the detailing degree reached in the retrofit design plans in these phases.

  5. Modeling Financial Liquidity Of Construction Companies Using Error Correction Mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Stryjewski

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Financial liquidity is one of the most important economic categories in the functioning of the company. There are many methods of assessment of the company in this field, ranging from ratio analysis, to advanced models of financial flows. In this paper was presented econometric model of financial income, which was used to analyze the liquidity of the three construction companies. This analysis was made on the background of methods indicator.

  6. A model-referenced procedure to support adversarial decision processes; Application to electricity planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, D.W.; Vlahos, K. (London Business School (United Kingdom))

    1992-10-01

    In public enquiries concerning major facilities, such as the construction of a new electric power plant, it is observed that a useable decision model should be made commonly available alongside the open provision of data and assumptions. The protagonist, eg the electric utility, generally makes use of a complex, proprietary model for detailed evaluation of options. A simple emulator of this, based upon a regression analysis of numerous scenarios, and validated by further simulations is shown to be feasible and potentially attractive. It would be in the interests of the utility to make such a model-referenced decision support method generally available. The approach is considered in relation to the recent Hinkley Point C public enquiry for a new nuclear power plant in the UK. (Author).

  7. Nuclear power plants: data for decisions. Construction status report: data as of July 31, 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-08-01

    This management report is designed to provide the necessary information for monitoring the progress of construction of nuclear power plants. It provides data for synchronizing the licensing process with predicted fuel loading dates, as well as providing a central federal government report for commercial reactor construction. It utilizes data collected from the utilities sponsoring these projects and the Office of Inspection and Enforcement, NRC, and analyzed by the Office of Management Information and Program Control in the implementation of Management Information Systems. The status of the 91 plants authorized to engage in construction activities in Regions I thru V is summarized in this document. This total includes (4) plants with construction exemptions, and (10) plants with Limited Work Authorization Permits

  8. Phenomenological Hints from a Class of String Motivated Model Constructions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Peter Nilles

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We use string theory constructions towards the generalisation of the supersymmetric standard model of strong and electroweak interactions. Properties of the models depend crucially on the location of fields in extradimensional compact space. This allows us to extract some generic lessons for the phenomenological properties of the low energy effective action. Within this scheme we present a compelling model based on local grand unification and mirage mediation of supersymmetry breakdown. We analyse the properties of the specific model towards its possible tests at the LHC and the complementarity to direct dark matter searches.

  9. Construction of a novel economy-climate model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHOU JieMing; DONG WenJie; YE DuZheng

    2007-01-01

    An attempt has been made to construct a novel economy-climate model by combining climate change research with agricultural economy research to evaluate the influence of global climate change on grain yields. The insertion of a climate change factor into the economic C-D (Cobb-Dauglas) production function model yields a novel evaluation model, which connects the climate change factor to the economic variation factor, and the performance and reasonableness of the novel evaluation model are also preliminarily simulated and verified.

  10. CFD modelling of moisture interactions between air and constructions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Lone Hedegaard; Woloszyn, Monika; Hohota, Raluca

    2005-01-01

    There is a strong demand for accurate moisture modelling since moisture poses a risk for both the constructions and the indoor climate. Thus, in this investigation there is special focus on moisture modelling. The paper describes a new model based on a CFD tool that is enhanced to include both...... detailed modelling of airflows in rooms and heat and moisture transfer in walls by applying them as fluid walls. In a 3D configuration the impact of different boundary conditions are investigated and the results are discussed. The changes of boundary conditions that are studied are velocity, moisture...

  11. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.; Lazonder, Adrianus W.; van der Hulst, A.; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, Hendrik H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studies were performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human

  12. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.C.; Lazonder, A.W.; Hulst, A.H. van der; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studieswere performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human

  13. Modelling Human Emotions for Tactical Decision-Making Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visschedijk, Gillian C.; Lazonder, Ard W.; van der Hulst, Anja; Vink, Nathalie; Leemkuil, Henny

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studies were performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characters. Study 1 compared five versions of a virtual…

  14. New decision analytical models for management of intracranial aneurysms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koffijberg, H.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis addresses decision analysis, cost-effectiveness models and the analysis of heterogeneity, applied to intracranial aneurysms and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Subarachnoid hemorrhage is a subset of stroke that usually occurs at relatively young age and has poor prognosis. Although, the

  15. A Behavioral Decision Making Modeling Approach Towards Hedging Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Egelkraut, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by

  16. Making Risk Models Operational for Situational Awareness and Decision Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, P.R.; Coles, G.; Shoemaker, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present CARIM, a decision support tool to aid in the evaluation of plans for converting control systems to digital instruments. The model provides the capability to optimize planning and resource allocation to reduce risk from multiple safety and economic perspectives. (author)

  17. Approach to decision modeling for an ignition test reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howland, H.R.; Varljen, T.C.

    1977-01-01

    A comparison matrix decision model is applied to candidates for a D-T ignition tokamak (TNS), including assessment of semi-quantifiable or judgemental factors as well as quantitative ones. The results show that TNS is mission-sensitive with a choice implied between near-term achievability and reactor technology

  18. The limitations of applying rational decision-making models to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this paper is to show the limitations of rational decision-making models as applied to child spacing and more specifically to the use of modern methods of contraception. In the light of factors known to influence low uptake of child spacing services in other African countries, suggestions are made to explain the ...

  19. Managing health care decisions and improvement through simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, Helena Hvitfeldt; Aronsson, Håkan; Keller, Christina; Lindblad, Staffan

    2011-01-01

    Simulation modeling is a way to test changes in a computerized environment to give ideas for improvements before implementation. This article reviews research literature on simulation modeling as support for health care decision making. The aim is to investigate the experience and potential value of such decision support and quality of articles retrieved. A literature search was conducted, and the selection criteria yielded 59 articles derived from diverse applications and methods. Most met the stated research-quality criteria. This review identified how simulation can facilitate decision making and that it may induce learning. Furthermore, simulation offers immediate feedback about proposed changes, allows analysis of scenarios, and promotes communication on building a shared system view and understanding of how a complex system works. However, only 14 of the 59 articles reported on implementation experiences, including how decision making was supported. On the basis of these articles, we proposed steps essential for the success of simulation projects, not just in the computer, but also in clinical reality. We also presented a novel concept combining simulation modeling with the established plan-do-study-act cycle for improvement. Future scientific inquiries concerning implementation, impact, and the value for health care management are needed to realize the full potential of simulation modeling.

  20. Decision-Making Risks Concerning the Construction of the Goiania Waste Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschoa, A.S.; Rozental, J.J.; Tranjan Filho, A.

    2001-01-01

    As it is well known, an accident with a teletherapy source made of 137 CsCl with an initial activity of 59 TBq occurred in Goiania, in September of 1987. This paper will discuss the decision-making process, and the struggle that followed the decision to build the final repository for the remnants of the Goiania accident. The Goiania final repository was built as planned. The two subsurface structures under the grassy artificial hills hold the overall volume of the remnants of the Goiania accident. The near hill holds 5x10 3 m3 of stabilized wastes without radioactivity, or with very low radioactivity. The far hill holds the remaining 6.5x10 3 m 3 of stabilized wastes with low and medium radioactivity. The central part of each subsurface hill has been shielded by wastes with less and less radioactivity. The overall fenced area occupies 1.85x10 5 m 2 . The external radiation levels are similar to the surrounding background, and much lower than those found in the Brazilian areas of high natural radioactivity. The site is permanently monitored by independent institutions, including Brazilian universities, and national and international organizations. As it was mentioned earlier, the final repository was build to last for at least 400 years. Although the initial decision to adopt a too conservative decontamination criterion in the case of the Goiania accident was bound to produce excessive amount of waste; such decision proved, retrospectively, not to be bad because the excess low radioactive waste produced was used as extra shielding material in final repository. The technical decision-maker should not abandon risk estimates, but should be aware that credibility is the main basis to achieve acceptability of a decision by the general public. Risk perception should be regarded as only a first step towards what may be called knowledge, or comprehension of risk estimates, but risk perception by the general public is still an open issue. The problem of a fixed, or near

  1. Decision-Making Risks Concerning the Construction of the Goiania Waste Repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paschoa, A.S. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Rozental, J.J. [Ministry of Environment (Israel); Tranjan Filho, A. [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN) (Brazil)

    2001-07-01

    As it is well known, an accident with a teletherapy source made of {sup 137}CsCl with an initial activity of 59 TBq occurred in Goiania, in September of 1987. This paper will discuss the decision-making process, and the struggle that followed the decision to build the final repository for the remnants of the Goiania accident. The Goiania final repository was built as planned. The two subsurface structures under the grassy artificial hills hold the overall volume of the remnants of the Goiania accident. The near hill holds 5x10{sup 3} m3 of stabilized wastes without radioactivity, or with very low radioactivity. The far hill holds the remaining 6.5x10{sup 3} m{sup 3} of stabilized wastes with low and medium radioactivity. The central part of each subsurface hill has been shielded by wastes with less and less radioactivity. The overall fenced area occupies 1.85x10{sup 5} m{sup 2}. The external radiation levels are similar to the surrounding background, and much lower than those found in the Brazilian areas of high natural radioactivity. The site is permanently monitored by independent institutions, including Brazilian universities, and national and international organizations. As it was mentioned earlier, the final repository was build to last for at least 400 years. Although the initial decision to adopt a too conservative decontamination criterion in the case of the Goiania accident was bound to produce excessive amount of waste; such decision proved, retrospectively, not to be bad because the excess low radioactive waste produced was used as extra shielding material in final repository. The technical decision-maker should not abandon risk estimates, but should be aware that credibility is the main basis to achieve acceptability of a decision by the general public. Risk perception should be regarded as only a first step towards what may be called knowledge, or comprehension of risk estimates, but risk perception by the general public is still an open issue. The

  2. Translational Models of Gambling-Related Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Catharine A; Clark, Luke

    Gambling is a harmless, recreational pastime that is ubiquitous across cultures. However, for some, gambling becomes a maladaptive and compulsive, and this syndrome is conceptualized as a behavioural addiction. Laboratory models that capture the key cognitive processes involved in gambling behaviour, and that can be translated across species, have the potential to make an important contribution to both decision neuroscience and the study of addictive disorders. The Iowa gambling task has been widely used to assess human decision-making under uncertainty, and this paradigm can be successfully modelled in rodents. Similar neurobiological processes underpin choice behaviour in humans and rats, and thus, a preference for the disadvantageous "high-risk, high-reward" options may reflect meaningful vulnerability for mental health problems. However, the choice behaviour operationalized by these tasks does not necessarily approximate the vulnerability to gambling disorder (GD) per se. We consider a number of psychological challenges that apply to modelling gambling in a translational way, and evaluate the success of the existing models. Heterogeneity in the structure of gambling games, as well as in the motivations of individuals with GD, is highlighted. The potential issues with extrapolating too directly from established animal models of drug dependency are discussed, as are the inherent difficulties in validating animal models of GD in the absence of any approved treatments for GD. Further advances in modelling the cognitive biases endemic in human decision-making, which appear to be exacerbated in GD, may be a promising line of research.

  3. Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2014-06-01

    Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  4. Causality in Psychiatry: A Hybrid Symptom Network Construct Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald eYoung

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Causality or etiology in psychiatry is marked by standard biomedical, reductionistic models (symptoms reflect the construct involved that inform approaches to nosology, or classification, such as in the DSM-5 (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition; American Psychiatric Association, 2013. However, network approaches to symptom interaction (i.e., symptoms are formative of the construct; e.g., McNally, Robinaugh, Wu, Wang, Deserno, & Borsboom, 2014, for PTSD (posttraumatic stress disorder are being developed that speak to bottom-up processes in mental disorder, in contrast to the typical top-down psychological construct approach. The present article presents a hybrid top-down, bottom-up model of the relationship between symptoms and mental disorder, viewing symptom expression and their causal complex as a reciprocally dynamic system with multiple levels, from lower-order symptoms in interaction to higher-order constructs affecting them. The hybrid model hinges on good understanding of systems theory in which it is embedded, so that the article reviews in depth nonlinear dynamical systems theory (NLDST. The article applies the concept of emergent circular causality (Young, 2011 to symptom development, as well. Conclusions consider that symptoms vary over several dimensions, including: subjectivity; objectivity; conscious motivation effort; and unconscious influences, and the degree to which individual (e.g., meaning and universal (e.g., causal processes are involved. The opposition between science and skepticism is a complex one that the article addresses in final comments.

  5. Management Model for Evaluation and Selection of Engineering Equipment Suppliers for Construction Projects in Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kadhim Raheem Erzaij

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Engineering equipment is essential part in the construction project and usually manufactured with long lead times, large costs and special engineering requirements. Construction manager targets that equipment to be delivered in the site need date with the right quantity, appropriate cost and required quality, and this entails an efficient supplier can satisfy these targets. Selection of engineering equipment supplier is a crucial managerial process .it requires evaluation of multiple suppliers according to multiple criteria. This process is usually performed manually and based on just limited evaluation criteria, so better alternatives may be neglected. Three stages of survey comprised number of public and private companies in Iraqi construction sector were employed to identify main criteria and sub criteria for supplier selection and their priorities.The main criteria identified were quality of product, commercial aspect, delivery, reputation and position, and system quality . An effective technique in multiple criteria decision making (MCDM as analytical hierarchy process (AHP have been used to get importance weights of criteria based on experts judgment. Thereafter, a management software system for Evaluation and Selection of Engineering Equipment Suppliers (ESEES has been developed based on the results obtained from AHP. This model was validated in a case study at municipality of Baghdad involved actual cases of selection pumps suppliers for infrastructure projects .According to experts, this model can improve the current process followed in the supplier selection and aid decision makers to adopt better choices in the domain of selection engineering equipment suppliers.

  6. Market orientation in the mental models of decision-makers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.; Trondsen, Torbjørn; Campos, Emilio Gonzalo

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: This study determines whether predictions about different degrees of market orientation in two cross-border value chains also appear in the mental models of decision makers at two levels of these value chains. Design: The laddering method elicits mental models of actors in two value chains......: Norwegian salmon exported to Japan and Danish pork exported to Japan. The analysis of the mental models centers on potential overlap and linkages between actors in the value chain, including elements in the mental models that may relate to the actors' market orientation. Findings: In both value chains......, decision makers exhibit overlap in their views of what drives their business. The pork chain appears dominated by a focus on efficiency, technology, and quality control, though it also acknowledges communication as important. The salmon chain places more emphasis on new product development and good...

  7. A public health decision support system model using reasoning methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mera, Maritza; González, Carolina; Blobel, Bernd

    2015-01-01

    Public health programs must be based on the real health needs of the population. However, the design of efficient and effective public health programs is subject to availability of information that can allow users to identify, at the right time, the health issues that require special attention. The objective of this paper is to propose a case-based reasoning model for the support of decision-making in public health. The model integrates a decision-making process and case-based reasoning, reusing past experiences for promptly identifying new population health priorities. A prototype implementation of the model was performed, deploying the case-based reasoning framework jColibri. The proposed model contributes to solve problems found today when designing public health programs in Colombia. Current programs are developed under uncertain environments, as the underlying analyses are carried out on the basis of outdated and unreliable data.

  8. Modelling in Primary School: Constructing Conceptual Models and Making Sense of Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh; Peled, Irit

    2017-01-01

    This article describes sixth-grade students' engagement in two model-eliciting activities offering students the opportunity to construct mathematical models. The findings show that students utilized their knowledge of fractions including conceptual and procedural knowledge in constructing mathematical models for the given situations. Some students…

  9. 75 FR 68334 - Record of Decision (ROD) for Training Range and Garrison Support Facilities Construction and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-05

    ... decision sites ranges and support facilities in locations that reflect the proper balance of initiatives for the protection of the environment, mission needs, and Soldier and Family quality of life..., Directorate of Public Works, Prevention and Compliance Branch, Environmental Division, 1550 Frank Cochran...

  10. Building Information Modeling for Managing Design and Construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berard, Ole Bengt

    outcome of construction work. Even though contractors regularly encounter design information problems, these issues are accepted as a condition of doing business and better design information has yet to be defined. Building information modeling has the inherent promise of improving the quality of design...... information for work tasks. * Amount of Information – the number of documents and files, and other media, should be appropriate for the scope. The criteria were identified by empirical studies and theory on information quality in the architectural, engineering and construction (AEC) industry and other fields......Contractors planning and executing construction work encounter many kinds of problems with design information, such as uncoordinated drawings and specification, missing relevant information, and late delivery of design information. Research has shown that missing design information and unintended...

  11. Mental models of decision-making in a healthcare executive

    OpenAIRE

    Long, Katrina

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The importance of shared mental models in teamwork has been explored in a diverse array of artificial work groups. This study extends such research to explore the role of mental models in the strategic decision-making of a real-world senior management group. Design/Methodology Data were collected from an intact group of senior healthcare executives (N=13) through semi-structured interviews, meeting observations and internal document analysis. Participants responded to intervi...

  12. A decision-making process model of young online shoppers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chin-Feng; Wang, Hui-Fang

    2008-12-01

    Based on the concepts of brand equity, means-end chain, and Web site trust, this study proposes a novel model called the consumption decision-making process of adolescents (CDMPA) to understand adolescents' Internet consumption habits and behavioral intention toward particular sporting goods. The findings of the CDMPA model can help marketers understand adolescents' consumption preferences and habits for developing effective Internet marketing strategies.

  13. A Spanish model for quantification and management of construction waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solis-Guzman, Jaime; Marrero, Madelyn; Montes-Delgado, Maria Victoria; Ramirez-de-Arellano, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Currently, construction and demolition waste (C and D waste) is a worldwide issue that concerns not only governments but also the building actors involved in construction activity. In Spain, a new national decree has been regulating the production and management of C and D waste since February 2008. The present work describes the waste management model that has inspired this decree: the Alcores model implemented with good results in Los Alcores Community (Seville, Spain). A detailed model is also provided to estimate the volume of waste that is expected to be generated on the building site. The quantification of C and D waste volume, from the project stage, is essential for the building actors to properly plan and control its disposal. This quantification model has been developed by studying 100 dwelling projects, especially their bill of quantities, and defining three coefficients to estimate the demolished volume (CT), the wreckage volume (CR) and the packaging volume (CE). Finally, two case studies are included to illustrate the usefulness of the model to estimate C and D waste volume in both new construction and demolition projects.

  14. A Spanish model for quantification and management of construction waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solís-Guzmán, Jaime; Marrero, Madelyn; Montes-Delgado, Maria Victoria; Ramírez-de-Arellano, Antonio

    2009-09-01

    Currently, construction and demolition waste (C&D waste) is a worldwide issue that concerns not only governments but also the building actors involved in construction activity. In Spain, a new national decree has been regulating the production and management of C&D waste since February 2008. The present work describes the waste management model that has inspired this decree: the Alcores model implemented with good results in Los Alcores Community (Seville, Spain). A detailed model is also provided to estimate the volume of waste that is expected to be generated on the building site. The quantification of C&D waste volume, from the project stage, is essential for the building actors to properly plan and control its disposal. This quantification model has been developed by studying 100 dwelling projects, especially their bill of quantities, and defining three coefficients to estimate the demolished volume (CT), the wreckage volume (CR) and the packaging volume (CE). Finally, two case studies are included to illustrate the usefulness of the model to estimate C&D waste volume in both new construction and demolition projects.

  15. Using plural modeling for predicting decisions made by adaptive adversaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buede, Dennis M.; Mahoney, Suzanne; Ezell, Barry; Lathrop, John

    2012-01-01

    Incorporating an appropriate representation of the likelihood of terrorist decision outcomes into risk assessments associated with weapons of mass destruction attacks has been a significant problem for countries around the world. Developing these likelihoods gets at the heart of the most difficult predictive problems: human decision making, adaptive adversaries, and adversaries about which very little is known. A plural modeling approach is proposed that incorporates estimates of all critical uncertainties: who is the adversary and what skills and resources are available to him, what information is known to the adversary and what perceptions of the important facts are held by this group or individual, what does the adversary know about the countermeasure actions taken by the government in question, what are the adversary's objectives and the priorities of those objectives, what would trigger the adversary to start an attack and what kind of success does the adversary desire, how realistic is the adversary in estimating the success of an attack, how does the adversary make a decision and what type of model best predicts this decision-making process. A computational framework is defined to aggregate the predictions from a suite of models, based on this broad array of uncertainties. A validation approach is described that deals with a significant scarcity of data.

  16. A decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.E.

    1997-03-01

    A decision model for risk management of hazardous processes as an optimisation problem of a point process is formulated in the study. In the approach, the decisions made by the management are divided into three categories: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) selection of the design and, (3) operational decisions. These three controlling methods play quite different roles in the practical risk management, which is also reflected in our approach. The optimisation of the process lifetime is related to the licensing problem of the process. It provides a boundary condition for a feasible utility function that is used as the actual objective function, i.e., maximizing the process lifetime utility. By design modifications, the management can affect the inherent accident hazard rate of the process. This is usually a discrete optimisation task. The study particularly concentrates upon the optimisation of the operational strategies given a certain design and licensing time. This is done by a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision maker. An optimal long term control variable guiding the selection of operational alternatives in short term problems is studied. The optimisation problem is solved by the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure. The approach is illustrated by a case study. (23 refs.)

  17. Cross-cultural comparison of concrete recycling decision-making and implementation in construction industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Vivian W Y; Tam, Leona; Le, Khoa N

    2010-02-01

    Waste management is pressing very hard with alarming signals in construction industry. Concrete waste constituents major proportions of construction and demolition waste of 81% in Australia. To minimize concrete waste generated from construction activities, recycling concrete waste is one of the best methods to conserve the environment. This paper investigates concrete recycling implementation in construction. Japan is a leading country in recycling concrete waste, which has been implementing 98% recycling and using it for structural concrete applications. Hong Kong is developing concrete recycling programs for high-grade applications. Australia is making relatively slow progress in implementing concrete recycling in construction. Therefore, empirical studies in Australia, Hong Kong, and Japan were selected in this paper. A questionnaire survey and structured interviews were conducted. Power spectrum was used for analysis. It was found that "increasing overall business competitiveness and strategic business opportunities" was considered as the major benefit for concrete recycling from Hong Kong and Japanese respondents, while "rising concrete recycling awareness such as selecting suitable resources, techniques and training and compliance with regulations" was considered as the major benefit from Australian respondents. However, "lack of clients' support", "increase in management cost" and "increase in documentation workload, such as working documents, procedures and tools" were the major difficulties encountered from Australian, Hong Kong, and Japanese respondents, respectively. To improve the existing implementation, "inclusion of concrete recycling evaluation in tender appraisal" and "defining clear legal evaluation of concrete recycling" were major recommendations for Australian and Hong Kong, and Japanese respondents, respectively.

  18. Cross-cultural comparison of concrete recycling decision-making and implementation in construction industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tam, Vivian W.Y.; Tam, Leona; Le, Khoa N.

    2010-01-01

    Waste management is pressing very hard with alarming signals in construction industry. Concrete waste constituents major proportions of construction and demolition waste of 81% in Australia. To minimize concrete waste generated from construction activities, recycling concrete waste is one of the best methods to conserve the environment. This paper investigates concrete recycling implementation in construction. Japan is a leading country in recycling concrete waste, which has been implementing 98% recycling and using it for structural concrete applications. Hong Kong is developing concrete recycling programs for high-grade applications. Australia is making relatively slow progress in implementing concrete recycling in construction. Therefore, empirical studies in Australia, Hong Kong, and Japan were selected in this paper. A questionnaire survey and structured interviews were conducted. Power spectrum was used for analysis. It was found that 'increasing overall business competitiveness and strategic business opportunities' was considered as the major benefit for concrete recycling from Hong Kong and Japanese respondents, while 'rising concrete recycling awareness such as selecting suitable resources, techniques and training and compliance with regulations' was considered as the major benefit from Australian respondents. However, 'lack of clients' support', 'increase in management cost' and 'increase in documentation workload, such as working documents, procedures and tools' were the major difficulties encountered from Australian, Hong Kong, and Japanese respondents, respectively. To improve the existing implementation, 'inclusion of concrete recycling evaluation in tender appraisal' and 'defining clear legal evaluation of concrete recycling' were major recommendations for Australian and Hong Kong, and Japanese respondents, respectively.

  19. A probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input model construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Jiang; Zabaras, Nicholas

    2014-01-01

    Model reduction techniques have been widely used in modeling of high-dimensional stochastic input in uncertainty quantification tasks. However, the probabilistic modeling of random variables projected into reduced-order spaces presents a number of computational challenges. Due to the curse of dimensionality, the underlying dependence relationships between these random variables are difficult to capture. In this work, a probabilistic graphical model based approach is employed to learn the dependence by running a number of conditional independence tests using observation data. Thus a probabilistic model of the joint PDF is obtained and the PDF is factorized into a set of conditional distributions based on the dependence structure of the variables. The estimation of the joint PDF from data is then transformed to estimating conditional distributions under reduced dimensions. To improve the computational efficiency, a polynomial chaos expansion is further applied to represent the random field in terms of a set of standard random variables. This technique is combined with both linear and nonlinear model reduction methods. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input models. - Highlights: • Data-driven stochastic input models without the assumption of independence of the reduced random variables. • The problem is transformed to a Bayesian network structure learning problem. • Examples are given in flows in random media

  20. Using expanded real options analysis to evaluate capacity expansion decisions under uncertainty in the construction material industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Momani, Amer Mohammad

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.

  1. Constructing a Travel Risks’ Evaluation Model for Tour Freelancers Based on the ANP Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Tsai Lin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study constructs a new travel risks’ evaluation model for freelancers to evaluate and select tour groups by considering the interdependencies of the evaluation criteria used. First of all, the proposed model adopts the Nominal Group Technique (NGT to identify suitable evaluation criteria for evaluating travel risks. Six evaluation criteria and 18 subcriteria are obtained. The six evaluation criteria are financial risk, transportation risk, social risk, hygiene risk, sightseeing spot risk, and general risk for freelancer tour groups. Secondly, the model uses the analytic network process (ANP to determine the relative weight of the criteria. Finally, examples of group package tours (GPTs are used to demonstrate the travel risk evaluation process for this model. The results show that the Tokyo GPT is the best group tour. The proposed model helps freelancers to effectively evaluate travel risks and decision-making, making it highly applicable to academia and tour groups.

  2. Naïve Bayesian Classifier for Selecting Good/Bad Projects during the Early Stage of International Construction Bidding Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woosik Jang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the 1970s, revenues generated by Korean contractors in international construction have increased rapidly, exceeding USD 70 billion per year in recent years. However, Korean contractors face significant risks from market uncertainty and sensitivity to economic volatility and technical difficulties. As the volatility of these risks threatens project profitability, approximately 15% of bad projects were found to account for 74% of losses from the same international construction sector. Anticipating bad projects via preemptive risk management can better prevent losses so that contractors can enhance the efficiency of bidding decisions during the early stages of a project cycle. In line with these objectives, this paper examines the effect of such factors on the degree of project profitability. The Naïve Bayesian classifier is applied to identify a good project screening tool, which increases practical applicability using binomial variables with limited information that is obtainable in the early stages. The proposed model produced superior classification results that adequately reflect contractor views of risk. It is anticipated that when users apply the proposed model based on their own knowledge and expertise, overall firm profit rates will increase as a result of early abandonment of bad projects as well as the prioritization of good projects before final bidding decisions are made.

  3. A Model Suggestion to Predict Leverage Ratio for Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özlem Tüz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the nature, construction is an industry with high uncertainty and risk. Construction industry carries high leverage ratios. Firms with low equities work in big projects through progress payment system, but in this case, even a small negative in the planned cash flows constitute a major risk for the company.The use of leverage, with a small investment to achieve profit targets large-scale, high-profit, but also brings a high risk with it. Investors may lose all or the portion of the money. In this study, monitoring and measuring of the leverage ratio because of the displacement in cash inflows of construction projects which uses high leverage and low cash to do business in the sector is targeted. Cash need because of drifting the cash inflows may be seen due to the model. Work should be done in the early stages of the project with little capital but in the later stages, rapidly growing capital need arises.The values obtained from the model may be used to supply the capital held in the right time by anticipating the risks because of the delay in cashflow of construction projects which uses high leverage ratio.

  4. Constructing (un-)certainty: An exploration of journalistic decision-making in the reporting of neuroscience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmkuhl, Markus; Peters, Hans Peter

    2016-11-01

    Based on 21 individual case studies, this article inventories the ways journalism deals with scientific uncertainty. The study identifies the decisions that impact a journalist's perception of a truth claim as unambiguous or ambiguous and the strategies to deal with uncertainty that arise from this perception. Key for understanding journalistic action is the outcome of three evaluations: What is the story about? How shall the story be told? What type of story is it? We reconstructed the strategies to overcome journalistic decision-making uncertainty in those cases in which they perceived scientific contingency as a problem. Journalism deals with uncertainty by way of omission, by contrasting the conflicting messages or by acknowledging the problem via the structure or language. One finding deserves particular mention: The lack of focus on scientific uncertainty is not only a problem of how journalists perceive and communicate but also a problem of how science communicates. © The Author(s) 2016.

  5. Model of decision for the management of technology and risk in a port community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Durán

    2018-10-01

    Full Text Available Strategic management in a port system is complex since the Port Community has to coordinate actions and generate synergy among all the private actors that integrate the export and import logistics chains, trade associations and trade unions. Based on the opinion of the port experts and the analytical network process (ANP, the research identifies the relevant criteria for strategic, business and operational decision-making in the Port Community, in the technological and risk contexts. With the criteria found and considering the strategic alignment that is required, management indicators are constructed. Based on a generic model, a new strategic conceptual model (PORTGD of ANP for decision management is designed for the Port Community, a cause and effect analysis is carried out and a sensitization study is performed on the nodes. The discussion of the results and conclusions highlights the importance of technological investment, control of port security and good practices for the port system investigated.

  6. Study on the construction of Guangdong coastal zone sustainable development decision support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Yong-zhu; Zhang, Mei-ying; Xia, Bin; Zhang, Zheng-dong

    2008-10-01

    Coastal zones in Guangdong province are increasingly facing an ecological, economic and social pressure due to the increasing economic utilization and human activities in these regions worldwide, which is threatening the sustainable development of human being. How to take effective measurements and adopt integrated management to ensure sustainable development in these areas is ever becoming a focus that attracts close attentions to the governmental and academic sectors recently. It is important to resolve the problem to establish an advanced decision support system for the coastal zone sustainable development to help scientific decision-making and carry out integrated coastal zone management. This paper mainly introduces the general framework of Guangdong coastal zone sustainable development decision support system (GDCZSDDSS), including its requirements, general objectives, function and structure, and key technologies etc. After expounding the basic concept and requirements of GDCZSDDSS, the paper discusses generally the three-tier architecture and six kinds of functional modules, and lays a particular emphasis on the crucial role of such key technologies as GIS, RS and GPS (3S), spatial metadata and data warehouse etc., and discusses the methods of the GCZSDDSS integration, which aims at offering a whole solution for realization of the GCZSDDSS ultimately.

  7. Decision-making in healthcare: a practical application of partial least square path modelling to coverage of newborn screening programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Katharina E

    2012-08-02

    Decision-making in healthcare is complex. Research on coverage decision-making has focused on comparative studies for several countries, statistical analyses for single decision-makers, the decision outcome and appraisal criteria. Accounting for decision processes extends the complexity, as they are multidimensional and process elements need to be regarded as latent constructs (composites) that are not observed directly. The objective of this study was to present a practical application of partial least square path modelling (PLS-PM) to evaluate how it offers a method for empirical analysis of decision-making in healthcare. Empirical approaches that applied PLS-PM to decision-making in healthcare were identified through a systematic literature search. PLS-PM was used as an estimation technique for a structural equation model that specified hypotheses between the components of decision processes and the reasonableness of decision-making in terms of medical, economic and other ethical criteria. The model was estimated for a sample of 55 coverage decisions on the extension of newborn screening programmes in Europe. Results were evaluated by standard reliability and validity measures for PLS-PM. After modification by dropping two indicators that showed poor measures in the measurement models' quality assessment and were not meaningful for newborn screening, the structural equation model estimation produced plausible results. The presence of three influences was supported: the links between both stakeholder participation or transparency and the reasonableness of decision-making; and the effect of transparency on the degree of scientific rigour of assessment. Reliable and valid measurement models were obtained to describe the composites of 'transparency', 'participation', 'scientific rigour' and 'reasonableness'. The structural equation model was among the first applications of PLS-PM to coverage decision-making. It allowed testing of hypotheses in situations where there

  8. An Integrated Framework for Process-Driven Model Construction in Disease Ecology and Animal Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Mancy

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Process models that focus on explicitly representing biological mechanisms are increasingly important in disease ecology and animal health research. However, the large number of process modelling approaches makes it difficult to decide which is most appropriate for a given disease system and research question. Here, we discuss different motivations for using process models and present an integrated conceptual analysis that can be used to guide the construction of infectious disease process models and comparisons between them. Our presentation complements existing work by clarifying the major differences between modelling approaches and their relationship with the biological characteristics of the epidemiological system. We first discuss distinct motivations for using process models in epidemiological research, identifying the key steps in model design and use associated with each. We then present a conceptual framework for guiding model construction and comparison, organised according to key aspects of epidemiological systems. Specifically, we discuss the number and type of disease states, whether to focus on individual hosts (e.g., cows or groups of hosts (e.g., herds or farms, how space or host connectivity affect disease transmission, whether demographic and epidemiological processes are periodic or can occur at any time, and the extent to which stochasticity is important. We use foot-and-mouth disease and bovine tuberculosis in cattle to illustrate our discussion and support explanations of cases in which different models are used to address similar problems. The framework should help those constructing models to structure their approach to modelling decisions and facilitate comparisons between models in the literature.

  9. Modelling, Construction, and Testing of a Simple HTS Machine Demonstrator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bogi Bech; Abrahamsen, Asger Bech

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the construction, modeling and experimental testing of a high temperature superconducting (HTS) machine prototype employing second generation (2G) coated conductors in the field winding. The prototype is constructed in a simple way, with the purpose of having an inexpensive way...... of validating finite element (FE) simulations and gaining a better understanding of HTS machines. 3D FE simulations of the machine are compared to measured current vs. voltage (IV) curves for the tape on its own. It is validated that this method can be used to predict the critical current of the HTS tape...... installed in the machine. The measured torque as a function of rotor position is also reproduced by the 3D FE model....

  10. Constructing topic models of Internet of Things for information processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Jie; Cui, Zhiming; Zhang, Shukui; He, Tianxu; Li, Chunhua; Huang, Haojing

    2014-01-01

    Internet of Things (IoT) is regarded as a remarkable development of the modern information technology. There is abundant digital products data on the IoT, linking with multiple types of objects/entities. Those associated entities carry rich information and usually in the form of query records. Therefore, constructing high quality topic hierarchies that can capture the term distribution of each product record enables us to better understand users' search intent and benefits tasks such as taxonomy construction, recommendation systems, and other communications solutions for the future IoT. In this paper, we propose a novel record entity topic model (RETM) for IoT environment that is associated with a set of entities and records and a Gibbs sampling-based algorithm is proposed to learn the model. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets and compare our approach with existing methods to demonstrate the advantage of our approach.

  11. Canopy Modeling of Aquatic Vegetation: Construction of Submerged Vegetation Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Z.; Zhou, G.

    2018-04-01

    The unique spectral characteristics of submerged vegetation in wetlands determine that the conventional terrestrial vegetation index cannot be directly employed to species identification and parameter inversion of submerged vegetation. Based on the Aquatic Vegetation Radiative Transfer model (AVRT), this paper attempts to construct an index suitable for submerged vegetation, the model simulated data and a scene of Sentinel-2A image in Taihu Lake, China are utilized for assessing the performance of the newly constructed indices and the existent vegetation indices. The results show that the angle index composed by 525 nm, 555 nm and 670 nm can resist the effects of water columns and is more sensitive to vegetation parameters such as LAI. Furthermore, it makes a well discrimination between submerged vegetation and water bodies in the satellite data. We hope that the new index will provide a theoretical basis for future research.

  12. Constructing Topic Models of Internet of Things for Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Jie; Cui, Zhiming; Zhang, Shukui; He, Tianxu; Li, Chunhua; Huang, Haojing

    2014-01-01

    Internet of Things (IoT) is regarded as a remarkable development of the modern information technology. There is abundant digital products data on the IoT, linking with multiple types of objects/entities. Those associated entities carry rich information and usually in the form of query records. Therefore, constructing high quality topic hierarchies that can capture the term distribution of each product record enables us to better understand users' search intent and benefits tasks such as taxonomy construction, recommendation systems, and other communications solutions for the future IoT. In this paper, we propose a novel record entity topic model (RETM) for IoT environment that is associated with a set of entities and records and a Gibbs sampling-based algorithm is proposed to learn the model. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets and compare our approach with existing methods to demonstrate the advantage of our approach. PMID:25110737

  13. Towards Measures to Establish the Relevance of Climate Model Output for Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, L.; Smith, L. A.

    2007-12-01

    How exactly can decision-support and policy making benefit from the use of multiple climate model experiments in terms of coping with the uncertainties on climate change projections? Climate modelling faces challenges beyond those of weather forecasting or even seasonal forecasting, as with climate we are now (and will probably always be) required to extrapolate to regimes in which we have no relevant forecast-verification archive. This suggests a very different approach from traditional methods of mixing models and skill based weighting to gain profitable probabilistic information when a large forecast-verification archive is in hand. In the case of climate, it may prove more rational to search for agreement between our models (in distribution), the aim being to determine the space and timescales on which, given our current understanding, the details of the simulation models are unimportant. This suggestion and others from Smith (2002, Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA 4 (99): 2487-2492) are interpreted in the light of recent advances. Climate models are large nonlinear dynamical systems which insightfully but imperfectly reflect the evolving weather patterns of the Earth. Their use in policy making and decision support assumes both that they contain sufficient information regarding reality to inform the decision, and that this information can be effectively communicated to the decision makers. There is nothing unique about climate modeling and these constraints, they apply in all cases where scientific modeling is applied to real-word actions (other than, perhaps, the action of improving our models). Starting with the issue of communication, figures from the 2007 IPCC Summary for Policy Makers will be constructively criticized from the perspective of decision makers, specifically those of the energy sector and the insurance/reinsurance sector. More information on basic questions of reliability and robustness would be of significant value when determining how heavily

  14. Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2017-07-01

    Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

  15. MEGACELL: A nanocrystal model construction software for HRTEM multislice simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroppa, Daniel G.; Righetto, Ricardo D.; Montoro, Luciano A.; Ramirez, Antonio J.

    2011-01-01

    Image simulation has an invaluable importance for the accurate analysis of High Resolution Transmission Electron Microscope (HRTEM) results, especially due to its non-linear image formation mechanism. Because the as-obtained images cannot be interpreted in a straightforward fashion, the retrieval of both qualitative and quantitative information from HRTEM micrographs requires an iterative process including the simulation of a nanocrystal model and its comparison with experimental images. However most of the available image simulation software requires atom-by-atom coordinates as input for the calculations, which can be prohibitive for large finite crystals and/or low-symmetry systems and zone axis orientations. This paper presents an open source citation-ware tool named MEGACELL, which was developed to assist on the construction of nanocrystals models. It allows the user to build nanocrystals with virtually any convex polyhedral geometry and to retrieve its atomic positions either as a plain text file or as an output compatible with EMS (Electron Microscopy Software) input protocol. In addition to the description of this tool features, some construction examples and its application for scientific studies are presented. These studies show MEGACELL as a handy tool, which allows an easier construction of complex nanocrystal models and improves the quantitative information extraction from HRTEM images. -- Highlights: → A software to support the HRTEM image simulation of nanocrystals in actual size. → MEGACELL allows the construction of complex nanocrystals models for multislice image simulation. → Some examples of improved nanocrystalline system characterization are presented, including the analysis of 3D morphology and growth behavior.

  16. Constructing unified models based on E8 in ten dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapetanakis, D.

    1992-01-01

    We examine the virtues and difficulties of the attempts to construct realistic four-dimensional models from a gauge theory based on E 8 and defined in ten dimensions. The four-dimensional theories are obtained using the coset space dimensional reduction scheme. Some of our points and in particular the proposed mechanism for supersymmetry breaking might be useful in other dimensional reduction schemes. (orig.)

  17. A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta

  18. Modeling and Testing Landslide Hazard Using Decision Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutasem Sh. Alkhasawneh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a decision tree model for specifying the importance of 21 factors causing the landslides in a wide area of Penang Island, Malaysia. These factors are vegetation cover, distance from the fault line, slope angle, cross curvature, slope aspect, distance from road, geology, diagonal length, longitude curvature, rugosity, plan curvature, elevation, rain perception, soil texture, surface area, distance from drainage, roughness, land cover, general curvature, tangent curvature, and profile curvature. Decision tree models are used for prediction, classification, and factors importance and are usually represented by an easy to interpret tree like structure. Four models were created using Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID, Exhaustive CHAID, Classification and Regression Tree (CRT, and Quick-Unbiased-Efficient Statistical Tree (QUEST. Twenty-one factors were extracted using digital elevation models (DEMs and then used as input variables for the models. A data set of 137570 samples was selected for each variable in the analysis, where 68786 samples represent landslides and 68786 samples represent no landslides. 10-fold cross-validation was employed for testing the models. The highest accuracy was achieved using Exhaustive CHAID (82.0% compared to CHAID (81.9%, CRT (75.6%, and QUEST (74.0% model. Across the four models, five factors were identified as most important factors which are slope angle, distance from drainage, surface area, slope aspect, and cross curvature.

  19. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  20. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin; Johnson, Edward J., Jr. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  1. Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    2010-01-01

    A methodology has been conceived for efficient synthesis of dynamical models that simulate common-sense decision- making processes. This methodology is intended to contribute to the design of artificial-intelligence systems that could imitate human common-sense decision making or assist humans in making correct decisions in unanticipated circumstances. This methodology is a product of continuing research on mathematical models of the behaviors of single- and multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology, ranging from a single-cell organism at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the three most recent and relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO -21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO-30634), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72; and Complexity for Survival of Living Systems (NPO- 43302), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 7 (July 2009), page 62. The methodology involves the concepts reported previously, albeit viewed from a different perspective. One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. Autonomy is imparted to the decisionmaking process by feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by information stored in the internal knowledge base. Representation

  2. Decision-making in healthcare: a practical application of partial least square path modelling to coverage of newborn screening programmes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fischer Katharina E

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision-making in healthcare is complex. Research on coverage decision-making has focused on comparative studies for several countries, statistical analyses for single decision-makers, the decision outcome and appraisal criteria. Accounting for decision processes extends the complexity, as they are multidimensional and process elements need to be regarded as latent constructs (composites that are not observed directly. The objective of this study was to present a practical application of partial least square path modelling (PLS-PM to evaluate how it offers a method for empirical analysis of decision-making in healthcare. Methods Empirical approaches that applied PLS-PM to decision-making in healthcare were identified through a systematic literature search. PLS-PM was used as an estimation technique for a structural equation model that specified hypotheses between the components of decision processes and the reasonableness of decision-making in terms of medical, economic and other ethical criteria. The model was estimated for a sample of 55 coverage decisions on the extension of newborn screening programmes in Europe. Results were evaluated by standard reliability and validity measures for PLS-PM. Results After modification by dropping two indicators that showed poor measures in the measurement models’ quality assessment and were not meaningful for newborn screening, the structural equation model estimation produced plausible results. The presence of three influences was supported: the links between both stakeholder participation or transparency and the reasonableness of decision-making; and the effect of transparency on the degree of scientific rigour of assessment. Reliable and valid measurement models were obtained to describe the composites of ‘transparency’, ‘participation’, ‘scientific rigour’ and ‘reasonableness’. Conclusions The structural equation model was among the first applications of PLS-PM to

  3. Model construction of nursing service satisfaction in hospitalized tumor patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yongyi; Liu, Jingshi; Xiao, Shuiyuan; Liu, Xiangyu; Tang, Xinhui; Zhou, Yujuan

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to construct a satisfaction model on nursing service in hospitalized tumor patients. Using questionnaires, data about hospitalized tumor patients' expectation, quality perception and satisfaction of hospital nursing service were obtained. A satisfaction model of nursing service in hospitalized tumor patients was established through empirical study and by structural equation method. This model was suitable for tumor specialized hospital, with reliability and validity. Patient satisfaction was significantly affected by quality perception and patient expectation. Patient satisfaction and patient loyalty was also affected by disease pressure. Hospital brand was positively correlated with patient satisfaction and patient loyalty, negatively correlated with patient complaint. Patient satisfaction was positively correlated with patient loyalty, patient complaints, and quality perception, and negatively correlated with disease pressure and patient expectation. The satisfaction model on nursing service in hospitalized tumor patients fits well. By this model, the quality of hospital nursing care may be improved.

  4. Simplified hydraulic model of French vertical-flow constructed wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, Luis; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc; Molle, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    Designing vertical-flow constructed wetlands (VFCWs) to treat both rain events and dry weather flow is a complex task due to the stochastic nature of rain events. Dynamic models can help to improve design, but they usually prove difficult to handle for designers. This study focuses on the development of a simplified hydraulic model of French VFCWs using an empirical infiltration coefficient--infiltration capacity parameter (ICP). The model was fitted using 60-second-step data collected on two experimental French VFCW systems and compared with Hydrus 1D software. The model revealed a season-by-season evolution of the ICP that could be explained by the mechanical role of reeds. This simplified model makes it possible to define time-course shifts in ponding time and outlet flows. As ponding time hinders oxygen renewal, thus impacting nitrification and organic matter degradation, ponding time limits can be used to fix a reliable design when treating both dry and rain events.

  5. An expandable software model for collaborative decision making during the whole building life cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papamichael, K.; Pal, V.; Bourassa, N.; Loffeld, J.; Capeluto, G.

    2000-01-01

    Decisions throughout the life cycle of a building, from design through construction and commissioning to operation and demolition, require the involvement of multiple interested parties (e.g., architects, engineers, owners, occupants and facility managers). The performance of alternative designs and courses of action must be assessed with respect to multiple performance criteria, such as comfort, aesthetics, energy, cost and environmental impact. Several stand-alone computer tools are currently available that address specific performance issues during various stages of a building's life cycle. Some of these tools support collaboration by providing means for synchronous and asynchronous communications, performance simulations, and monitoring of a variety of performance parameters involved in decisions about a building during building operation. However, these tools are not linked in any way, so significant work is required to maintain and distribute information to all parties. In this paper we describe a software model that provides the data management and process control required for collaborative decision making throughout a building's life cycle. The requirements for the model are delineated addressing data and process needs for decision making at different stages of a building's life cycle. The software model meets these requirements and allows addition of any number of processes and support databases over time. What makes the model infinitely expandable is that it is a very generic conceptualization (or abstraction) of processes as relations among data. The software model supports multiple concurrent users, and facilitates discussion and debate leading to decision making. The software allows users to define rules and functions for automating tasks and alerting all participants to issues that need attention. It supports management of simulated as well as real data and continuously generates information useful for improving performance prediction and

  6. Potential and Benefits of Building Information Modeling (BIM) During Pre-Construction, Construction and Post Construction Stage

    OpenAIRE

    Aw Nien Wei; Md Azree Othuman Mydin

    2017-01-01

    The construction industry is the main economic support for all countries around the world in which continually adapting to meet competitive challenges around the global market. Nevertheless, the construction project is becoming much more complex and difficult to manage. This is because the construction project involves a large number of stakeholder, for example, the consultant companies, architects, engineers, building surveyors and quantity surveyors. The technology current...

  7. Implementation of building information modeling in Malaysian construction industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Memon, Aftab Hameed; Rahman, Ismail Abdul; Harman, Nur Melly Edora

    2014-10-01

    This study has assessed the implementation level of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in the construction industry of Malaysia. It also investigated several computer software packages facilitating BIM and challenges affecting its implementation. Data collection for this study was carried out using questionnaire survey among the construction practitioners. 95 completed forms of questionnaire received against 150 distributed questionnaire sets from consultant, contractor and client organizations were analyzed statistically. Analysis findings indicated that the level of implementation of BIM in the construction industry of Malaysia is very low. Average index method employed to assess the effectiveness of various software packages of BIM highlighted that Bentley construction, AutoCAD and ArchiCAD are three most popular and effective software packages. Major challenges to BIM implementation are it requires enhanced collaboration, add work to a designer, interoperability and needs enhanced collaboration. For improving the level of implementing BIM in Malaysian industry, it is recommended that a flexible training program of BIM for all practitioners must be created.

  8. The construction of categorization judgments: using subjective confidence and response latency to test a distributed model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koriat, Asher; Sorka, Hila

    2015-01-01

    The classification of objects to natural categories exhibits cross-person consensus and within-person consistency, but also some degree of between-person variability and within-person instability. What is more, the variability in categorization is also not entirely random but discloses systematic patterns. In this study, we applied the Self-Consistency Model (SCM, Koriat, 2012) to category membership decisions, examining the possibility that confidence judgments and decision latency track the stable and variable components of categorization responses. The model assumes that category membership decisions are constructed on the fly depending on a small set of clues that are sampled from a commonly shared population of pertinent clues. The decision and confidence are based on the balance of evidence in favor of a positive or a negative response. The results confirmed several predictions derived from SCM. For each participant, consensual responses to items were more confident than non-consensual responses, and for each item, participants who made the consensual response tended to be more confident than those who made the nonconsensual response. The difference in confidence between consensual and nonconsensual responses increased with the proportion of participants who made the majority response for the item. A similar pattern was observed for response speed. The pattern of results obtained for cross-person consensus was replicated by the results for response consistency when the responses were classified in terms of within-person agreement across repeated presentations. These results accord with the sampling assumption of SCM, that confidence and response speed should be higher when the decision is consistent with what follows from the entire population of clues than when it deviates from it. Results also suggested that the context for classification can bias the sample of clues underlying the decision, and that confidence judgments mirror the effects of context on

  9. The Solution Construction of Heterotic Super-Liouville Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhan-Ying; Zhen, Yi

    2001-12-01

    We investigate the heterotic super-Liouville model on the base of the basic Lie super-algebra Osp(1|2).Using the super extension of Leznov-Saveliev analysis and Drinfeld-Sokolov linear system, we construct the explicit solution of the heterotic super-Liouville system in component form. We also show that the solutions are local and periodic by calculating the exchange relation of the solution. Finally starting from the action of heterotic super-Liouville model, we obtain the conserved current and conserved charge which possessed the BRST properties.

  10. Algorithmic fault tree construction by component-based system modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majdara, Aref; Wakabayashi, Toshio

    2008-01-01

    Computer-aided fault tree generation can be easier, faster and less vulnerable to errors than the conventional manual fault tree construction. In this paper, a new approach for algorithmic fault tree generation is presented. The method mainly consists of a component-based system modeling procedure an a trace-back algorithm for fault tree synthesis. Components, as the building blocks of systems, are modeled using function tables and state transition tables. The proposed method can be used for a wide range of systems with various kinds of components, if an inclusive component database is developed. (author)

  11. Signalling network construction for modelling plant defence response.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragana Miljkovic

    Full Text Available Plant defence signalling response against various pathogens, including viruses, is a complex phenomenon. In resistant interaction a plant cell perceives the pathogen signal, transduces it within the cell and performs a reprogramming of the cell metabolism leading to the pathogen replication arrest. This work focuses on signalling pathways crucial for the plant defence response, i.e., the salicylic acid, jasmonic acid and ethylene signal transduction pathways, in the Arabidopsis thaliana model plant. The initial signalling network topology was constructed manually by defining the representation formalism, encoding the information from public databases and literature, and composing a pathway diagram. The manually constructed network structure consists of 175 components and 387 reactions. In order to complement the network topology with possibly missing relations, a new approach to automated information extraction from biological literature was developed. This approach, named Bio3graph, allows for automated extraction of biological relations from the literature, resulting in a set of (component1, reaction, component2 triplets and composing a graph structure which can be visualised, compared to the manually constructed topology and examined by the experts. Using a plant defence response vocabulary of components and reaction types, Bio3graph was applied to a set of 9,586 relevant full text articles, resulting in 137 newly detected reactions between the components. Finally, the manually constructed topology and the new reactions were merged to form a network structure consisting of 175 components and 524 reactions. The resulting pathway diagram of plant defence signalling represents a valuable source for further computational modelling and interpretation of omics data. The developed Bio3graph approach, implemented as an executable language processing and graph visualisation workflow, is publically available at http://ropot.ijs.si/bio3graph/and can be

  12. Couples' joint decision-making: the construction and validation of a key proxy for understanding gender relations in contemporary families

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    Maira Covre-Sussai

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Gender relations have become a key dimension in family studies, and understanding gender relations as both determining and resulting from outcome of new family configurations requires the use of specific surveys aimed at the dynamics of couples. Unfortunately, nationally representative surveys of this type are not available for Latin American countries. Nonetheless, the most recent versions of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS include a section called "Women's Status and Empowerment", which can provide information about gender relations as well. This study aims at assessing the construct of gender relations in terms of couples' joint decision-making for all five Brazilian geographical regions. To this end, a step-by-step multi-group confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA was applied in order to verify whether this concept can be compared across Brazilian regions. Results show that the DHS items can be used reliably for measuring couples' joint decision-making and that this construct can be meaningfully compared over the regions. These findings will contribute to further demographic and sociological research on gender relations which can use this concept and other indicators provided by the DHS to identify the causal processes related to it.

  13. A MODEL OF STUDENTS’ UNIVERSITY DECISION-MAKING BEHAVIOR

    OpenAIRE

    Ionela MANIU; George C. MANIU

    2014-01-01

    Over the last decade the higher education institutional framework suffered a major transformation:the increasing influence of market competition on academic life - “marketization”.Consequently, HEI attention is increasingly focused on attracting high quality (human) resources and students. Such context demands a deeper understanding of students’ decision making process for HEI. Literature on higher education management provides a large number of models, which attempt to provide a...

  14. PopPlanner: Visually constructing demographic models for simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Bruce Ewing

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Currently there are a number of coalescent simulation programs that support a wide range of features, such as arbitrary demographic models, migration, and sub structure. Defining the model is done typically with either text files or command line switches. Although this has proven to be a powerful method of defining models of high complexity, it is often error prone and difficult to read without familiarity both with command lines and the program in question. A intuitive GUI based population structure program that can both read and write applicable command lines would dramatically simplify the construction, modification, and error checking of such models by a wider user base.Results: PopPlanner is a tool to both construct and inspect complicated demographic models visually with a GUI where the user’s primary interaction is through mouse gestures. Because of their popularity, we focus on ms and by extension msms, command line coalescent simulation programs. Our program can be used to find errors with existing command lines, or to build original command lines. Furthermore the graphical output supports a number of editing and output features including export of publication quality figures.

  15. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  16. Technology decision making. A constructive approach to planning and acquisition will require a paradigm shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkowitz, D A; Swan, M M

    1993-01-01

    Technology should be viewed as an integrating rather than a divisive element in hospital planning. In the past, technology decision-making responsibility has often been diffused throughout hospitals, but providers are beginning to take a more considered and coherent approach. The process of making decisions about technology has four key elements: assessment, planning, acquisition, and management. The most important aspect of the assessment phase is the formation of a technology advisory committee to review and evaluate requests for new and emerging technology; review capital budget requests for new and replacement technology; and set mission-based and strategic priorities for new, emerging, and replacement technologies. Technology planning allows hospitals to set long-term goals for technology acquisition. The process involves an audit of existing technologies, evaluation of other hospitals' technologies, and review of technology trends. A well-defined technology plan will, in turn, facilitate the acquisition and management process, allowing hospitals greater flexibility in negotiating costs and budgeting for training, spare parts, service, upgrades, and support. By pooling resources with other providers in their region, hospitals can further enhance the effectiveness of their use and acquisition of technology. Collaboration allows providers to share the risks of technologically volatile and intensive services and avoid costly duplication of equipment and facilities.

  17. Construction of UML class diagram with Model-Driven Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Górski

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Model transformations play a key role in software development projects based on Model--Driven Development (MDD principles. Transformations allow for automation of repetitive and well-defined steps, thus shortening design time and reducing a number of errors. In the object-oriented approach, the key elements are use cases. They are described, modelled and later designed until executable application code is obtained. The aim of the paper is to present transformation of a model-to-model type, Communication-2-Class, which automates construction of Unified Modelling Language (UML class diagram in the context of the analysis/design model. An UML class diagram is created based on UML communication diagram within use case realization. As a result, a class diagram shows all of the classes involved in the use case realization and the relationships among them. The plug-in which implements Communication-2-Class transformation was implemented in the IBM Rational Software Architect. The article presents the tests results of developed plug-in, which realizes Communication-2-Class transformation, showing capabilities of shortening use case realization’s design time.[b]Keywords[/b]: Model-Driven Development, transformations, Unified Modelling Language, analysis/design model, UML class diagram, UML communication diagram

  18. Bayesian averaging over Decision Tree models for trauma severity scoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schetinin, V; Jakaite, L; Krzanowski, W

    2018-01-01

    Health care practitioners analyse possible risks of misleading decisions and need to estimate and quantify uncertainty in predictions. We have examined the "gold" standard of screening a patient's conditions for predicting survival probability, based on logistic regression modelling, which is used in trauma care for clinical purposes and quality audit. This methodology is based on theoretical assumptions about data and uncertainties. Models induced within such an approach have exposed a number of problems, providing unexplained fluctuation of predicted survival and low accuracy of estimating uncertainty intervals within which predictions are made. Bayesian method, which in theory is capable of providing accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates, has been adopted in our study using Decision Tree models. Our approach has been tested on a large set of patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank and has outperformed the standard method in terms of prediction accuracy, thereby providing practitioners with accurate estimates of the predictive posterior densities of interest that are required for making risk-aware decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Modeling of Construction Cost of Villas in Oman

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    MA Al-Mohsin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this research, a model for estimating construction cost of villas is presented. The model takes into account four major factors affecting villa's cost, namely: built up area, number of toilets, number of bedrooms and the number of stories. A field survey was conducted to collect information required for such model using data collection form designed by the researchers. Information about 150 villas was collected from six well experienced consultants in the field of villa design and supervision in Oman. Collected data was analyzed to develop suggested model which consists of two main levels of estimate. The first level is at the conceptual design stage where the client presents his/her need of space and basic information about the available plot for construction. The second level of cost estimation is carried out after the preliminary design stage where the client has to decide on the finishes and type of structure. At the second level of estimation, the client should be able to decide whether to precede for construction or not, according to his/her budget. The model is general and can be used anywhere and was validated for accepted degree of confidence using the actual cost of the 112 executed villa projects in Oman. The villas included in this study were owned by clients from both high and low income brackets and had different types of finishing material. The developed equations showed good correlation between the selected variables and the actual cost with R2  = 0.79 in the case of conceptual estimate and R2  = 0.601 for preliminary estimate.

  20. An environmentally sustainable decision model for urban solid waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costi, P.; Minciardi, R.; Robba, M.; Rovatti, M.; Sacile, R.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present the structure and the application of a decision support system (DSS) designed to help decision makers of a municipality in the development of incineration, disposal, treatment and recycling integrated programs. Specifically, within a MSW management system, several treatment plants and facilities can generally be found: separators, plants for production of refuse derived fuel (RDF), incinerators with energy recovery, plants for treatment of organic material, and sanitary landfills. The main goal of the DSS is to plan the MSW management, defining the refuse flows that have to be sent to recycling or to different treatment or disposal plants, and suggesting the optimal number, the kinds, and the localization of the plants that have to be active. The DSS is based on a decision model that requires the solution of a constrained non-linear optimization problem, where some decision variables are binary and other ones are continuous. The objective function takes into account all possible economic costs, whereas constraints arise from technical, normative, and environmental issues. Specifically, pollution and impacts, induced by the overall solid waste management system, are considered through the formalization of constraints on incineration emissions and on negative effects produced by disposal or other particular treatments

  1. LEADERSHIP MODELS AND EFFICIENCY IN DECISION CRISIS SITUATIONS, DURING DISASTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JAIME RIQUELME CASTAÑEDA

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article explains how an effective leadership is made on a team during an emergency, during a decision crisis in the context of a disaster. From the approach of the process, we analyze some variables such as flexibility, value congruence, rationality, politicization, and quality of design. To achieve that, we made a fi eld work with the information obtained from the three Emergency headquarters deployed by the Chilean Armed Forces, due to the effects of the 8.8 earthquake on February 27th 2010. The data is analyzed through econometric technics. The results suggested that the original ideas and the rigorous analysis are the keys to secure the quality of the decision. It also, made possible to unveil the fact, that to have efficiency in operations in a disaster, it requires a big presence of a vision, mission, and inspiration about a solid and pre-existing base of goals and motivations. Finally, we can fi nd the support to the relationship between kinds of leadership and efficiency on crisis decision-making process of the disaster and opens a space to build a decision making theoretic model.

  2. Constructing a management strategy for contaminated agricultural systems using the decision support system RODOS and GIS technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montero, Milagros; Dvorzhak, Alla

    2008-01-01

    Full text: In the event of a radiological accident or incident, the construction of a strategy for managing the possible contaminated systems is an important component into the emergency response process. There are a wide collection of possible management options, but for any one accident scenario only a subset of options conforming a management strategy will be applied. The selection of these options depends on a wide range of criteria (time and space, effectiveness, economic cost, radiological and environmental impact, waste disposal, legislative issues and societal and ethical aspects, for example) which, nowadays, are implemented into tools and systems to guide to the decision-makers. This work aims to establish the usefulness and applicability of the Decision Support System RODOS for representative Spanish situations where food production systems become contaminated after a radiological emergency. This aspect is demonstrated for developing an management strategy for one scenario involving contamination of the food chain after a hypothetical accidental release of 137 Cs and 90 Sr from a Spanish NPP. For this scenario, the NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) data of INM (National Meteorological Institute) have been considered. The deposited contamination, the activity concentration in significant agricultural products for this region, human doses and countermeasures proposed by the RODOS system have been considered and analyzed. There could be defined a ranking of the information intended for the decision makers based on the importance of the decisions to be made from it in each phase of the accident. In the initial moments, there is no detailed radiological information, and urgent countermeasures must be taken promptly to be effective. In regard to the information in which decision is supported during subsequent phases of the accident (late phase), time scheduling is not limiting, being the key requirement to count on the most reliable and complete information

  3. Modelling uncertainty with generalized credal sets: application to conjunction and decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronevich, Andrey G.; Rozenberg, Igor N.

    2018-01-01

    To model conflict, non-specificity and contradiction in information, upper and lower generalized credal sets are introduced. Any upper generalized credal set is a convex subset of plausibility measures interpreted as lower probabilities whose bodies of evidence consist of singletons and a certain event. Analogously, contradiction is modelled in the theory of evidence by a belief function that is greater than zero at empty set. Based on generalized credal sets, we extend the conjunctive rule for contradictory sources of information, introduce constructions like natural extension in the theory of imprecise probabilities and show that the model of generalized credal sets coincides with the model of imprecise probabilities if the profile of a generalized credal set consists of probability measures. We give ways how the introduced model can be applied to decision problems.

  4. Using the domain identification model to study major and career decision-making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tendhar, Chosang; Singh, Kusum; Jones, Brett D.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which (1) a domain identification model could be used to predict students' engineering major and career intentions and (2) the MUSIC Model of Motivation components could be used to predict domain identification. The data for this study were collected from first-year engineering students. We used a structural equation model to test the hypothesised relationship between variables in the partial domain identification model. The findings suggested that engineering identification significantly predicted engineering major intentions and career intentions and had the highest effect on those two variables compared to other motivational constructs. Furthermore, results suggested that success, interest, and caring are plausible contributors to students' engineering identification. Overall, there is strong evidence that the domain identification model can be used as a lens to study career decision-making processes in engineering, and potentially, in other fields as well.

  5. Behavioural modelling of irrigation decision making under water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, T.; Brozovic, N.; Butler, A. P.

    2013-12-01

    Providing effective policy solutions to aquifer depletion caused by abstraction for irrigation is a key challenge for socio-hydrology. However, most crop production functions used in hydrological models do not capture the intraseasonal nature of irrigation planning, or the importance of well yield in land and water use decisions. Here we develop a method for determining stochastic intraseasonal water use that is based on observed farmer behaviour but is also theoretically consistent with dynamically optimal decision making. We use the model to (i) analyse the joint land and water use decision by farmers; (ii) to assess changes in behaviour and production risk in response to water scarcity; and (iii) to understand the limits of applicability of current methods in policy design. We develop a biophysical model of water-limited crop yield building on the AquaCrop model. The model is calibrated and applied to case studies of irrigated corn production in Nebraska and Texas. We run the model iteratively, using long-term climate records, to define two formulations of the crop-water production function: (i) the aggregate relationship between total seasonal irrigation and yield (typical of current approaches); and (ii) the stochastic response of yield and total seasonal irrigation to the choice of an intraseasonal soil moisture target and irrigated area. Irrigated area (the extensive margin decision) and per-area irrigation intensity (the intensive margin decision) are then calculated for different seasonal water restrictions (corresponding to regulatory policies) and well yield constraints on intraseasonal abstraction rates (corresponding to aquifer system limits). Profit- and utility-maximising decisions are determined assuming risk neutrality and varying degrees of risk aversion, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the formulation of the production function has a significant impact on the response to water scarcity. For low well yields, which are the major concern

  6. System dynamics models as decision-making tools in agritourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jere Jakulin Tadeja

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Agritourism as a type of niche tourism is a complex and softly defined phaenomenon. The demands for fast and integrated decision regarding agritourism and its interconnections with environment, economy (investments, traffic and social factors (tourists is urgent. Many different methodologies and methods master softly structured questions and dilemmas with global and local properties. Here we present methods of systems thinking and system dynamics, which were first brought into force in the educational and training area in the form of different computer simulations and later as tools for decision-making and organisational re-engineering. We develop system dynamics models in order to present accuracy of methodology. These models are essentially simple and can serve only as describers of the activity of basic mutual influences among variables. We will pay the attention to the methodology for parameter model values determination and the so-called mental model. This one is the basis of causal connections among model variables. At the end, we restore a connection between qualitative and quantitative models in frame of system dynamics.

  7. Construction and validation of a decision tree for treating metabolic acidosis in calves with neonatal diarrhea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trefz Florian M

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of the present prospective study was to investigate whether a decision tree based on basic clinical signs could be used to determine the treatment of metabolic acidosis in calves successfully without expensive laboratory equipment. A total of 121 calves with a diagnosis of neonatal diarrhea admitted to a veterinary teaching hospital were included in the study. The dosages of sodium bicarbonate administered followed simple guidelines based on the results of a previous retrospective analysis. Calves that were neither dehydrated nor assumed to be acidemic received an oral electrolyte solution. In cases in which intravenous correction of acidosis and/or dehydration was deemed necessary, the provided amount of sodium bicarbonate ranged from 250 to 750 mmol (depending on alterations in posture and infusion volumes from 1 to 6.25 liters (depending on the degree of dehydration. Individual body weights of calves were disregarded. During the 24 hour study period the investigator was blinded to all laboratory findings. Results After being lifted, many calves were able to stand despite base excess levels below −20 mmol/l. Especially in those calves, metabolic acidosis was undercorrected with the provided amount of 500 mmol sodium bicarbonate, which was intended for calves standing insecurely. In 13 calves metabolic acidosis was not treated successfully as defined by an expected treatment failure or a measured base excess value below −5 mmol/l. By contrast, 24 hours after the initiation of therapy, a metabolic alkalosis was present in 55 calves (base excess levels above +5 mmol/l. However, the clinical status was not affected significantly by the metabolic alkalosis. Conclusions Assuming re-evaluation of the calf after 24 hours, the tested decision tree can be recommended for the use in field practice with minor modifications. Calves that stand insecurely and are not able to correct their position if pushed

  8. Construction of fuzzy spaces and their applications to matrix models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Yasuhiro

    Quantization of spacetime by means of finite dimensional matrices is the basic idea of fuzzy spaces. There remains an issue of quantizing time, however, the idea is simple and it provides an interesting interplay of various ideas in mathematics and physics. Shedding some light on such an interplay is the main theme of this dissertation. The dissertation roughly separates into two parts. In the first part, we consider rather mathematical aspects of fuzzy spaces, namely, their construction. We begin with a review of construction of fuzzy complex projective spaces CP k (k = 1, 2, · · ·) in relation to geometric quantization. This construction facilitates defining symbols and star products on fuzzy CPk. Algebraic construction of fuzzy CPk is also discussed. We then present construction of fuzzy S 4, utilizing the fact that CP3 is an S2 bundle over S4. Fuzzy S4 is obtained by imposing an additional algebraic constraint on fuzzy CP3. Consequently it is proposed that coordinates on fuzzy S4 are described by certain block-diagonal matrices. It is also found that fuzzy S8 can analogously be constructed. In the second part of this dissertation, we consider applications of fuzzy spaces to physics. We first consider theories of gravity on fuzzy spaces, anticipating that they may offer a novel way of regularizing spacetime dynamics. We obtain actions for gravity on fuzzy S2 and on fuzzy CP3 in terms of finite dimensional matrices. Application to M(atrix) theory is also discussed. With an introduction of extra potentials to the theory, we show that it also has new brane solutions whose transverse directions are described by fuzzy S 4 and fuzzy CP3. The extra potentials can be considered as fuzzy versions of differential forms or fluxes, which enable us to discuss compactification models of M(atrix) theory. In particular, compactification down to fuzzy S4 is discussed and a realistic matrix model of M-theory in four-dimensions is proposed.

  9. Construction of a biodynamic model for Cry protein production studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro-Mtz, Ana Karin; Pérez-Guevara, Fermín

    2014-12-01

    Mathematical models have been used from growth kinetic simulation to gen regulatory networks prediction for B. thuringiensis culture. However, this culture is a time dependent dynamic process where cells physiology suffers several changes depending on the changes in the cell environment. Therefore, through its culture, B. thuringiensis presents three phases related with the predominance of three major metabolic pathways: vegetative growth (Embded-Meyerhof-Parnas pathway), transition (γ-aminobutiric cycle) and sporulation (tricarboxylic acid cycle). There is not available a mathematical model that relates the different stages of cultivation with the metabolic pathway active on each one of them. Therefore, in the present study, and based on published data, a biodynamic model was generated to describe the dynamic of the three different phases based on their major metabolic pathways. The biodynamic model is used to study the interrelation between the different culture phases and their relationship with the Cry protein production. The model consists of three interconnected modules where each module represents one culture phase and its principal metabolic pathway. For model validation four new fermentations were done showing that the model constructed describes reasonably well the dynamic of the three phases. The main results of this model imply that poly-β-hydroxybutyrate is crucial for endospore and Cry protein production. According to the yields of dipicolinic acid and Cry from poly-β-hydroxybutyrate, calculated with the model, the endospore and Cry protein production are not just simultaneous and parallel processes they are also competitive processes.

  10. Data acquisition in modeling using neural networks and decision trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sika

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a comparison of selected models from area of artificial neural networks and decision trees in relation with actualconditions of foundry processes. The work contains short descriptions of used algorithms, their destination and method of data preparation,which is a domain of work of Data Mining systems. First part concerns data acquisition realized in selected iron foundry, indicating problems to solve in aspect of casting process modeling. Second part is a comparison of selected algorithms: a decision tree and artificial neural network, that is CART (Classification And Regression Trees and BP (Backpropagation in MLP (Multilayer Perceptron networks algorithms.Aim of the paper is to show an aspect of selecting data for modeling, cleaning it and reducing, for example due to too strong correlationbetween some of recorded process parameters. Also, it has been shown what results can be obtained using two different approaches:first when modeling using available commercial software, for example Statistica, second when modeling step by step using Excel spreadsheetbasing on the same algorithm, like BP-MLP. Discrepancy of results obtained from these two approaches originates from a priorimade assumptions. Mentioned earlier Statistica universal software package, when used without awareness of relations of technologicalparameters, i.e. without user having experience in foundry and without scheduling ranks of particular parameters basing on acquisition, can not give credible basis to predict the quality of the castings. Also, a decisive influence of data acquisition method has been clearly indicated, the acquisition should be conducted according to repetitive measurement and control procedures. This paper is based on about 250 records of actual data, for one assortment for 6 month period, where only 12 data sets were complete (including two that were used for validation of neural network and useful for creating a model. It is definitely too

  11. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  12. Can Neuroscience Assist Us in Constructing Better Patterns of Economic Decision-Making?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Lăzăroiu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We draw on outstanding research (Sanfey et al., 2006; McCabe, 2008; Bernheim, 2009; Camerer, 2013; Radu and McClure, 2013; Declerck and Boone, 2016 to substantiate that neuroeconomics covers the investigation of the biological microfoundations of economic cognition and economic conduct, attempts to prove that a superior grasp of how choices are made brings about superior expectations regarding which options are selected, preserves the strictness of economic analysis in defining value-based decision, and associates imaging techniques with economic pattern to explain how individuals decide on a strategy taking into account various possible choices. Neuroeconomics is adequately prepared to regulate the notion of how choices are determined by mental states. The position that will be elaborated in this article is that neuroeconomic patterns are enabled and enhanced in descriptive capacity by psychological outcomes and substantiated in biological processes. Advancement in neuroeconomics takes place when outcomes from distinct procedures are coherent with an ordinary mechanistic clarification of what generates choice, construed by a computational pattern. We will develop this point further by proving that economics improves the concerted effort of neuroeconomics by using its observations in the various results that may stem from the planned and market interplays of diverse participants, and via a series of accurate, explicit, mathematical patterns to construe such interplays and results. Neuroeconomics experiments employ a mixture of brain imaging/stimulation tests advanced in the cognitive neurosciences and microeconomic systems/game theory tests advanced in the economic sciences. Our analyses indicate that neuroeconomics aims to employ the supplementary input gained from brain investigations, associated with the decision maker’s selection, with the purpose of better grasping the cogitation process and to utilize the outcomes to enhance economic

  13. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  14. Pavement maintenance optimization model using Markov Decision Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandiartha, P.; Duffield, C. F.; Razelan, I. S. b. M.; Ismail, A. b. H.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents an optimization model for selection of pavement maintenance intervention using a theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). There are some particular characteristics of the MDP developed in this paper which distinguish it from other similar studies or optimization models intended for pavement maintenance policy development. These unique characteristics include a direct inclusion of constraints into the formulation of MDP, the use of an average cost method of MDP, and the policy development process based on the dual linear programming solution. The limited information or discussions that are available on these matters in terms of stochastic based optimization model in road network management motivates this study. This paper uses a data set acquired from road authorities of state of Victoria, Australia, to test the model and recommends steps in the computation of MDP based stochastic optimization model, leading to the development of optimum pavement maintenance policy.

  15. Heuristic decision model for intelligent nuclear power systems design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nassersharif, B.; Portal, M.G.; Gaeta, M.J.

    1989-01-01

    The objective of this project was to investigate intelligent nuclear power systems design. A theoretical model of the design process has been developed. A fundamental process in this model is the heuristic decision making for design (i.e., selection of methods, components, materials, etc.). Rule-based expert systems do not provide the completeness that is necessary to generate good design. A new method, based on the fuzzy set theory, has been developed and is presented here. A feedwater system knowledge base (KB) was developed for a prototype software experiment to benchmark the theory

  16. A Knowledge Management and Decision Support Model for Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Ribino

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a novel knowledge management system (KMS for enterprises. Our system exploits two different approaches for knowledge representation and reasoning: a document-based approach based on data-driven creation of a semantic space and an ontology-based model. Furthermore, we provide an expert system capable of supporting the enterprise decisional processes and a semantic engine which performs intelligent search on the enterprise knowledge bases. The decision support process exploits the Bayesian networks model to improve business planning process when performed under uncertainty.

  17. Computer-Aided Construction of Chemical Kinetic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, William H. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2014-12-31

    The combustion chemistry of even simple fuels can be extremely complex, involving hundreds or thousands of kinetically significant species. The most reasonable way to deal with this complexity is to use a computer not only to numerically solve the kinetic model, but also to construct the kinetic model in the first place. Because these large models contain so many numerical parameters (e.g. rate coefficients, thermochemistry) one never has sufficient data to uniquely determine them all experimentally. Instead one must work in “predictive” mode, using theoretical rather than experimental values for many of the numbers in the model, and as appropriate refining the most sensitive numbers through experiments. Predictive chemical kinetics is exactly what is needed for computer-aided design of combustion systems based on proposed alternative fuels, particularly for early assessment of the value and viability of proposed new fuels before those fuels are commercially available. This project was aimed at making accurate predictive chemical kinetics practical; this is a challenging goal which requires a range of science advances. The project spanned a wide range from quantum chemical calculations on individual molecules and elementary-step reactions, through the development of improved rate/thermo calculation procedures, the creation of algorithms and software for constructing and solving kinetic simulations, the invention of methods for model-reduction while maintaining error control, and finally comparisons with experiment. Many of the parameters in the models were derived from quantum chemistry calculations, and the models were compared with experimental data measured in our lab or in collaboration with others.

  18. Multi-model-based Access Control in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Hilbert

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available During the execution of large scale construction projects performed by Virtual Organizations (VO, relatively complex technical models have to be exchanged between the VO members. For linking the trade and transfer of these models, a so-called multi-model container format was developed. Considering the different skills and tasks of the involved partners, it is not necessary for them to know all the models in every technical detailing. Furthermore, the model size can lead to a delay in communication. In this paper an approach is presented for defining model cut-outs according to the current project context. Dynamic dependencies to the project context as well as static dependencies on the organizational structure are mapped in a context-sensitive rule. As a result, an approach for dynamic filtering of multi-models is obtained which ensures, together with a filtering service, that the involved VO members get a simplified view of complex multi-models as well as sufficient permissions depending on their tasks.

  19. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  20. Modeling of shallot supply decisions: the case of Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabawati, N. F.; Pujawan, I. N.; Widodo, E.

    2018-04-01

    To optimize supply chain role, the players of supply chain need to integrate its function. One of the general problems in supply chain was the unbalanced quantity of sales and quantity of supply. This paper focused on modelling a simple method to manage the gap between the demand and the supply. The gap might cause an overstock or a loss. This paper propose a buffer quantity in order to handle the gap by using import decision. The case study was about shallot supply - demand in Indonesia. In this study we model the supply decisions of shallot in Indonesia. While the demand was quite stable over time, the supply was heavily affected by the yield from the farms. The shortage could result in the government importing shallot from other countries. Hence, the government also needed to have a proper buffering mechanism in order to ensure the supply was sufficient and the price was quite stable. The initial model of this research was built by stochastic parameters and the extended model to gain pricing mechanism was built by Shapley value principal with modification. The primary variables were supply quantity, demand quantity, buffer and purchased quantity (stock needed), actual consumption, and price for three players. The validation proved that the result of price at each player presented a significant difference. Therefore, the model could be applied to decide the stock quantity needed and to keep the price stable at each player especially at the end player which would influence the market price.

  1. Developing a Hierarchical Decision Model to Evaluate Nuclear Power Plant Alternative Siting Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lingga, Marwan Mossa

    A strong trend of returning to nuclear power is evident in different places in the world. Forty-five countries are planning to add nuclear power to their grids and more than 66 nuclear power plants are under construction. Nuclear power plants that generate electricity and steam need to improve safety to become more acceptable to governments and the public. One novel practical solution to increase nuclear power plants' safety factor is to build them away from urban areas, such as offshore or underground. To date, Land-Based siting is the dominant option for siting all commercial operational nuclear power plants. However, the literature reveals several options for building nuclear power plants in safer sitings than Land-Based sitings. The alternatives are several and each has advantages and disadvantages, and it is difficult to distinguish among them and choose the best for a specific project. In this research, we recall the old idea of using the alternatives of offshore and underground sitings for new nuclear power plants and propose a tool to help in choosing the best siting technology. This research involved the development of a decision model for evaluating several potential nuclear power plant siting technologies, both those that are currently available and future ones. The decision model was developed based on the Hierarchical Decision Modeling (HDM) methodology. The model considers five major dimensions, social, technical, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP), and their related criteria and sub-criteria. The model was designed and developed by the author, and its elements' validation and evaluation were done by a large number of experts in the field of nuclear energy. The decision model was applied in evaluating five potential siting technologies and ranked the Natural Island as the best in comparison to Land-Based, Floating Plant, Artificial Island, and Semi-Embedded plant.

  2. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Aenishaenslin

    Full Text Available Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or

  3. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  4. Decision-making tool for the assessment and selection of construction processes based on environmental criteria: Application to precast and cast-in-situ alternatives

    OpenAIRE

    Casanovas Rubio, Maria del Mar; Ramos Schneider, Gonzalo

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative environmental impact assessment tool for the decision making of construction processes including structures, infrastructures and buildings by means of an Environmental Impact Index (EII) to be applied at design and/or construction stages. The research is based on multi-attribute utility theory, interviews with experts representatives of the different stakeholders in construction, and an analysis of fifty-nine European and Spanish environmental legislative ac...

  5. Support System Model for Value based Group Decision on Roof System Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiono Utomo

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available A group decision support system is required on a value-based decision because there are different concern caused by differing preferences, experiences, and background. It is to enable each decision-maker to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with other decision-makers. Stakeholder of multi-criteria decision making problems usually evaluates the alternative solution from different perspective, making it possible to have a dominant solution among the alternatives. Each stakeholder needs to identify the goals that can be optimized and those that can be compromised in order to reach an agreement with other stakeholders. This paper presents group decision model involving three decision-makers on the selection of suitable system for a building’s roof. The objective of the research is to find an agreement options model and coalition algorithms for multi person decision with two main preferences of value which are function and cost. The methodology combines value analysis method using Function Analysis System Technique (FAST; Life Cycle Cost analysis, group decision analysis method based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP in a satisfying options, and Game theory-based agent system to develop agreement option and coalition formation for the support system. The support system bridges theoretical gap between automated design in construction domain and automated negotiation in information technology domain by providing a structured methodology which can lead to systematic support system and automated negotiation. It will contribute to value management body of knowledge as an advanced method for creativity and analysis phase, since the practice of this knowledge is teamwork based. In the case of roof system selection, it reveals the start of the first negotiation round. Some of the solutions are not an option because no individual stakeholder or coalition of stakeholders desires to select it. The result indicates

  6. Construction of normal-regular decisions of Bessel typed special system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasmambetov, Zhaksylyk N.; Talipova, Meiramgul Zh.

    2017-09-01

    Studying a special system of differential equations in the separate production of the second order is solved by the degenerate hypergeometric function reducing to the Bessel functions of two variables. To construct a solution of this system near regular and irregular singularities, we use the method of Frobenius-Latysheva applying the concepts of rank and antirank. There is proved the basic theorem that establishes the existence of four linearly independent solutions of studying system type of Bessel. To prove the existence of normal-regular solutions we establish necessary conditions for the existence of such solutions. The existence and convergence of a normally regular solution are shown using the notion of rank and antirank.

  7. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  8. Biomechanical modelling and evaluation of construction jobs for performance improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parida, Ratri; Ray, Pradip Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Occupational risk factors, such as awkward posture, repetition, lack of rest, insufficient illumination and heavy workload related to construction-related MMH activities may cause musculoskeletal disorders and poor performance of the workers, ergonomic design of construction worksystems was a critical need for improving their health and safety wherein a dynamic biomechanical models were required to be empirically developed and tested at a construction site of Tata Steel, the largest steel making company of India in private sector. In this study, a comprehensive framework is proposed for biomechanical evaluation of shovelling and grinding under diverse work environments. The benefit of such an analysis lies in its usefulness in setting guidelines for designing such jobs with minimization of risks of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and enhancing correct methods of carrying out the jobs leading to reduced fatigue and physical stress. Data based on direct observations and videography were collected for the shovellers and grinders over a number of workcycles. Compressive forces and moments for a number of segments and joints are computed with respect to joint flexion and extension. The results indicate that moments and compressive forces at L5/S1 link are significant for shovellers while moments at elbow and wrist are significant for grinders.

  9. Modeling Manpower and Equipment Productivity in Tall Building Construction Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudumbai Krishnaswamy, Parthasarathy; Rajiah, Murugasan; Vasan, Ramya

    2017-12-01

    Tall building construction projects involve two critical resources of manpower and equipment. Their usage, however, widely varies due to several factors affecting their productivity. Currently, no systematic study for estimating and increasing their productivity is available. What is prevalent is the use of empirical data, experience of similar projects and assumptions. As tall building projects are here to stay and increase, to meet the emerging demands in ever shrinking urban spaces, it is imperative to explore ways and means of scientific productivity models for basic construction activities: concrete, reinforcement, formwork, block work and plastering for the input of specific resources in a mixed environment of manpower and equipment usage. Data pertaining to 72 tall building projects in India were collected and analyzed. Then, suitable productivity estimation models were developed using multiple linear regression analysis and validated using independent field data. It is hoped that the models developed in the study will be useful for quantity surveyors, cost engineers and project managers to estimate productivity of resources in tall building projects.

  10. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  11. Fuzzy pricing for urban water resources: model construction and application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ranhang; Chen, Shouyu

    2008-08-01

    A rational water price system plays a crucial role in the optimal allocation of water resources. In this paper, a fuzzy pricing model for urban water resources is presented, which consists of a multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model and a water resources price (WRP) computation model. Various factors affecting WRP are comprehensively evaluated with multiple levels and objectives in the multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model, while the price vectors of water resources are constructed in the WRP computation model according to the definition of the bearing water price index, and then WRP is calculated. With the incorporation of an operator's knowledge, it considers iterative weights and subjective preference of operators for weight-assessment. The weights determined are more rational and the evaluation results are more realistic. Particularly, dual water supply is considered in the study. Different prices being fixed for water resources with different qualities conforms to the law of water resources value (WRV) itself. A high-quality groundwater price computation model is also proposed to provide optimal water allocation and to meet higher living standards. The developed model is applied in Jinan for evaluating its validity. The method presented in this paper offers some new directions in the research of WRP.

  12. A naturalistic decision making model for simulated human combatants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HUNTER, KEITH O.; HART, WILLIAM E.; FORSYTHE, JAMES C.

    2000-01-01

    The authors describe a naturalistic behavioral model for the simulation of small unit combat. This model, Klein's recognition-primed decision making (RPD) model, is driven by situational awareness rather than a rational process of selecting from a set of action options. They argue that simulated combatants modeled with RPD will have more flexible and realistic responses to a broad range of small-scale combat scenarios. Furthermore, they note that the predictability of a simulation using an RPD framework can be easily controlled to provide multiple evaluations of a given combat scenario. Finally, they discuss computational issues for building an RPD-based behavior engine for fully automated combatants in small conflict scenarios, which are being investigated within Sandia's Next Generation Site Security project

  13. Construction and completion of flux balance models from pathway databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latendresse, Mario; Krummenacker, Markus; Trupp, Miles; Karp, Peter D

    2012-02-01

    Flux balance analysis (FBA) is a well-known technique for genome-scale modeling of metabolic flux. Typically, an FBA formulation requires the accurate specification of four sets: biochemical reactions, biomass metabolites, nutrients and secreted metabolites. The development of FBA models can be time consuming and tedious because of the difficulty in assembling completely accurate descriptions of these sets, and in identifying errors in the composition of these sets. For example, the presence of a single non-producible metabolite in the biomass will make the entire model infeasible. Other difficulties in FBA modeling are that model distributions, and predicted fluxes, can be cryptic and difficult to understand. We present a multiple gap-filling method to accelerate the development of FBA models using a new tool, called MetaFlux, based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP). The method suggests corrections to the sets of reactions, biomass metabolites, nutrients and secretions. The method generates FBA models directly from Pathway/Genome Databases. Thus, FBA models developed in this framework are easily queried and visualized using the Pathway Tools software. Predicted fluxes are more easily comprehended by visualizing them on diagrams of individual metabolic pathways or of metabolic maps. MetaFlux can also remove redundant high-flux loops, solve FBA models once they are generated and model the effects of gene knockouts. MetaFlux has been validated through construction of FBA models for Escherichia coli and Homo sapiens. Pathway Tools with MetaFlux is freely available to academic users, and for a fee to commercial users. Download from: biocyc.org/download.shtml. mario.latendresse@sri.com Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  14. The use of typed lambda calculus for comprehension and construction of simulation models in the domain of ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uschold, Michael

    1992-01-01

    We are concerned with two important issues in simulation modelling: model comprehension and model construction. Model comprehension is limited because many important choices taken during the modelling process are not documented. This makes it difficult for models to be modified or used by others. A key factor hindering model construction is the vast modelling search space which must be navigated. This is exacerbated by the fact that many modellers are unfamiliar with the terms and concepts catered to by current tools. The root of both problems is the lack of facilities for representing or reasoning about domain concepts in current simulation technology. The basis for our achievements in both of these areas is the development of a language with two distinct levels; one for representing domain information, and the other for representing the simulation model. Of equal importance, is the fact that we make formal connections between these two levels. The domain we are concerned with is ecological modelling. This language, called Elklogic, is based on the typed lambda calculus. Important features include a rich type structure, the use of various higher order functions, and semantics. This enables complex expressions to be constructed from relatively few primitives. The meaning of each expression can be determined in terms of the domain, the simulation model, or the relationship between the two. We describe a novel representation for sets and substructure, and a variety of other general concepts that are especially useful in the ecological domain. We use the type structure in a novel way: for controlling the modelling search space, rather than a proof search space. We facilitate model comprehension by representing modelling decisions that are embodied in the simulation model. We represent the simulation model separately from, but in terms of a domain mode. The explicit links between the two models constitute the modelling decisions. The semantics of Elklogic enables

  15. HAM Construction modeling using COMSOL with MatLab Modeling Guide version 1.0.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijndel, van A.W.M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a first modeling guide for the modeling and simulation of up to full 3D dynamic Heat, Air & Moisture (HAM) transport of building constructions using COMSOL with Matlab. The modeling scripts are provided at the appendix. Furthermore, all modeling files and results are published at

  16. HAM Construction modeling using COMSOL with MatLab Modeling Guide, version 1.0

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijndel, van A.W.M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a first modeling guide for the modeling and simulation of up to full 3D dynamic Heat, Air & Moisture (HAM) transport of building constructions using COMSOL with Matlab. The modeling scripts are provided at the appendix. Furthermore, all modeling files and results are published at

  17. Data to Decisions: Creating a Culture of Model-Driven Drug Discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Frank K; Kopti, Farida; Chang, Charlie Zhenyu; Johnson, Scott A; Glick, Meir; Waller, Chris L

    2017-09-01

    Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA, is undergoing a transformation in the way that it prosecutes R&D programs. Through the adoption of a "model-driven" culture, enhanced R&D productivity is anticipated, both in the form of decreased attrition at each stage of the process and by providing a rational framework for understanding and learning from the data generated along the way. This new approach focuses on the concept of a "Design Cycle" that makes use of all the data possible, internally and externally, to drive decision-making. These data can take the form of bioactivity, 3D structures, genomics, pathway, PK/PD, safety data, etc. Synthesis of high-quality data into models utilizing both well-established and cutting-edge methods has been shown to yield high confidence predictions to prioritize decision-making and efficiently reposition resources within R&D. The goal is to design an adaptive research operating plan that uses both modeled data and experiments, rather than just testing, to drive project decision-making. To support this emerging culture, an ambitious information management (IT) program has been initiated to implement a harmonized platform to facilitate the construction of cross-domain workflows to enable data-driven decision-making and the construction and validation of predictive models. These goals are achieved through depositing model-ready data, agile persona-driven access to data, a unified cross-domain predictive model lifecycle management platform, and support for flexible scientist-developed workflows that simplify data manipulation and consume model services. The end-to-end nature of the platform, in turn, not only supports but also drives the culture change by enabling scientists to apply predictive sciences throughout their work and over the lifetime of a project. This shift in mindset for both scientists and IT was driven by an early impactful demonstration of the potential benefits of the platform, in which expert-level early discovery

  18. [Application of decision curve on evaluation of MRI predictive model for early assessing pathological complete response to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Y J; Li, X T; Fan, Z Q; Li, Y L; Cao, K; Sun, Y S; Ouyang, T

    2018-01-23

    Objective: To construct a dynamic enhanced MR based predictive model for early assessing pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer, and to evaluate the clinical benefit of the model by using decision curve. Methods: From December 2005 to December 2007, 170 patients with breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy were identified and their MR images before neoadjuvant therapy and at the end of the first cycle of neoadjuvant therapy were collected. Logistic regression model was used to detect independent factors for predicting pCR and construct the predictive model accordingly, then receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the predictive model. Results: ΔArea(max) and Δslope(max) were independent predictive factors for pCR, OR =0.942 (95% CI : 0.918-0.967) and 0.961 (95% CI : 0.940-0.987), respectively. The area under ROC curve (AUC) for the constructed model was 0.886 (95% CI : 0.820-0.951). Decision curve showed that in the range of the threshold probability above 0.4, the predictive model presented increased net benefit as the threshold probability increased. Conclusions: The constructed predictive model for pCR is of potential clinical value, with an AUC>0.85. Meanwhile, decision curve analysis indicates the constructed predictive model has net benefit from 3 to 8 percent in the likely range of probability threshold from 80% to 90%.

  19. Forecasting Construction Tender Price Index in Ghana using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Kissi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Prices of construction resources keep on fluctuating due to unstable economic situations that have been experienced over the years. Clients knowledge of their financial commitments toward their intended project remains the basis for their final decision. The use of construction tender price index provides a realistic estimate at the early stage of the project. Tender price index (TPI is influenced by various economic factors, hence there are several statistical techniques that have been employed in forecasting. Some of these include regression, time series, vector error correction among others. However, in recent times the integrated modelling approach is gaining popularity due to its ability to give powerful predictive accuracy. Thus, in line with this assumption, the aim of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX in modelling TPI. The results showed that ARIMAX model has a better predictive ability than the use of the single approach. The study further confirms the earlier position of previous research of the need to use the integrated model technique in forecasting TPI. This model will assist practitioners to forecast the future values of tender price index. Although the study focuses on the Ghanaian economy, the findings can be broadly applicable to other developing countries which share similar economic characteristics.

  20. Justification of the concept of mathematical methods and models in making decisions on taxation

    OpenAIRE

    KORKUNA NATALIA MIKHAYLOVNA

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents the concept of the application of mathematical methods and models in making decisions on taxation in Ukraine as a phased process. Its performance result is the selection of an effective decision based on regression and optimization models.

  1. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

    2017-01-01

    Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  2. Real-Time Decision Making and Aggressive Behavior in Youth: A Heuristic Model of Response Evaluation and Decision (RED).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, Reid Griffith; Dodge, Kenneth A

    2006-11-01

    Considerable scientific and intervention attention has been paid to judgment and decision-making systems associated with aggressive behavior in youth. However, most empirical studies have investigated social-cognitive correlates of stable child and adolescent aggressiveness, and less is known about real-time decision making to engage in aggressive behavior. A model of real-time decision making must incorporate both impulsive actions and rational thought. The present paper advances a process model (response evaluation and decision; RED) of real-time behavioral judgments and decision making in aggressive youths with mathematic representations that may be used to quantify response strength. These components are a heuristic to describe decision making, though it is doubtful that individuals always mentally complete these steps. RED represents an organization of social-cognitive operations believed to be active during the response decision step of social information processing. The model posits that RED processes can be circumvented through impulsive responding. This article provides a description and integration of thoughtful, rational decision making and nonrational impulsivity in aggressive behavioral interactions.

  3. Effects of dynamic agricultural decision making in an ecohydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichenau, T. G.; Krimly, T.; Schneider, K.

    2012-04-01

    Due to various interdependencies between the cycles of water, carbon, nitrogen, and energy the impacts of climate change on ecohydrological systems can only be investigated in an integrative way. Furthermore, the human intervention in the environmental processes makes the system even more complex. On the one hand human impact affects natural systems. On the other hand the changing natural systems have a feedback on human decision making. One of the most important examples for this kind of interaction can be found in the agricultural sector. Management dates (planting, fertilization, harvesting) are chosen based on meteorological conditions and yield expectations. A faster development of crops under a warmer climate causes shorter cropping seasons. The choice of crops depends on their profitability, which is mainly determined by market prizes, the agro-political framework, and the (climate dependent) crop yield. This study investigates these relations for the district Günzburg located in the Upper Danube catchment in southern Germany. The modeling system DANUBIA was used to perform dynamically coupled simulations of plant growth, surface and soil hydrological processes, soil nitrogen transformations, and agricultural decision making. The agro-economic model simulates decisions on management dates (based on meteorological conditions and the crops' development state), on fertilization intensities (based on yield expectations), and on choice of crops (based on profitability). The environmental models included in DANUBIA are to a great extent process based to enable its use in a climate change scenario context. Scenario model runs until 2058 were performed using an IPCC A1B forcing. In consecutive runs, dynamic crop management, dynamic crop selection, and a changing agro-political framework were activated. Effects of these model features on hydrological and ecological variables were analyzed separately by comparing the results to a model run with constant crop

  4. Constructing Poverty Lines in Croatia Using Kakwani’s Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinko Škare

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new model for defining the poverty line as a possible candidate for the construction of a new official poverty line in Croatia. The model, based on Kakwani’s (2010 approach (nutrition-based anchor, uses consumer theory as the basis for defining food and non-food poverty lines. In Croatia, various alternative poverty indicators have been developed to define the official poverty line. To ensure international comparability and consistency, the poverty threshold expressed in local currency by applying the exchange rate of currencies’ purchasing power (PPP is expressed in international dollars. It is important to ensure implementation of redistributive policies, maximization of market efficiency, and increased social justice. All this policy goals and instruments heavily depend on efficient and precise poverty measurement methods.

  5. Construct canine intracranial aneurysm model by endovascular technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Xiaodong; Liu Yizhi; Ni Caifang; Ding Yi

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To construct canine bifurcation aneurysms suitable for evaluating the exploration of endovascular devices for interventional therapy by endovascular technique. Methods: The right common carotid artery of six dogs was expanded with a pliable balloon by means of endovascular technique, then embolization with detached balloon was taken at their originations DAS examination were performed on 1, 2, 3 d after the procedurse. Results: 6 aneurysm models were created in six dogs successfully with the mean width and height of the aneurysms decreasing in 3 days. Conclusions: This canine aneurysm model presents the virtue in the size and shape of human cerebral bifurcation saccular aneurysms on DSA image, suitable for developing the exploration of endovascular devices for aneurismal therapy. The procedure is quick, reliable and reproducible. (authors)

  6. Investment timing decisions in a stochastic duopoly model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marseguerra, Giovanni [Istituto di Econometria e CRANEC, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore di Milan (Italy)]. E-mail: giovanni.marseguerra@unicatt.it; Cortelezzi, Flavia [Dipartimento di Diritto ed Economia delle Persone e delle Imprese, Universita dell' Insubria (Italy)]. E-mail: flavia.cortelezzi@uninsubria.it; Dominioni, Armando [CORE-Catholique de Louvain la Neuve (Belgium)]. E-mail: dominioni@core.ucl.ac.be

    2006-08-15

    We investigate the role of strategic considerations on the optimal timing of investment when firms compete for a new market (e.g., the provision of an innovative product) under demand uncertainty. Within a continuous time model of stochastic oligopoly, we show that strategic considerations are likely to be of limited impact when the new product is radically innovative whilst the fear of a rival's entry may deeply affect firms' decisions whenever innovation is to some extent limited. The welfare analysis shows surprisingly that the desirability of the different market structures considered does not depend on the fixed entry cost.

  7. Optimal statistical decisions about some alternative financial models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vajda, Igor; Stummer, W.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 137, č. 2 (2007), s. 441-471 ISSN 0304-4076 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0572; GA ČR GA201/02/1391; GA AV ČR IAA1075403 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Black-Scholes-Merton models * Relative entropies * Power divergences * Hellinger intergrals * Total variation distance * Bayesian decisions * Neyman-Pearson testing Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 1.990, year: 2007

  8. Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Sang Ha; Lee, Sung Jin; Chang, Soon Heung; Kim, Sung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

    2005-01-01

    Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

  9. Investment timing decisions in a stochastic duopoly model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Giovanni; Cortelezzi, Flavia; Dominioni, Armando

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the role of strategic considerations on the optimal timing of investment when firms compete for a new market (e.g., the provision of an innovative product) under demand uncertainty. Within a continuous time model of stochastic oligopoly, we show that strategic considerations are likely to be of limited impact when the new product is radically innovative whilst the fear of a rival's entry may deeply affect firms' decisions whenever innovation is to some extent limited. The welfare analysis shows surprisingly that the desirability of the different market structures considered does not depend on the fixed entry cost

  10. Applying Probabilistic Decision Models to Clinical Trial Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Wade P; Phillips, Mark H

    2018-01-01

    Clinical trial design most often focuses on a single or several related outcomes with corresponding calculations of statistical power. We consider a clinical trial to be a decision problem, often with competing outcomes. Using a current controversy in the treatment of HPV-positive head and neck cancer, we apply several different probabilistic methods to help define the range of outcomes given different possible trial designs. Our model incorporates the uncertainties in the disease process and treatment response and the inhomogeneities in the patient population. Instead of expected utility, we have used a Markov model to calculate quality adjusted life expectancy as a maximization objective. Monte Carlo simulations over realistic ranges of parameters are used to explore different trial scenarios given the possible ranges of parameters. This modeling approach can be used to better inform the initial trial design so that it will more likely achieve clinical relevance.

  11. The Dominance of the Agency Model on Financing Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bramantyo Djohanputro

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available There are some issues about how companies consider their financing. These issues are related to the amount, source, type, and the structure of such financing. So far, there is no uniform model that is able to explain how companies deal with these issues. There are three competing, dominant theories of financing decision making, i.e. the Pecking Order Theory, the Static Trade-off Theory, and the Agency Model Theory. This study attempts to explore which theory explains the best way for companies in the consumer industry to decide their financing method. There are five hypotheses to be tested in this study. Using data from public listed companies on the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2008 to 2011, it seems that the Agency Model Theory is more dominant than the other two theories in explaining the way companies fulfill their financing needs.

  12. A knowledge based system for linking information to support decision making in construction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.; Mawdesley, Michael J.

    2002-01-01

    This work describes the development of a project model centred on the information and knowledge generated and used by managers. It describes a knowledge-based system designed for this purpose. A knowledge acquisition exercise was undertaken to determine the tasks of project managers and the

  13. A procurement decision model for a video rental store — A case study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    predetermined budget. The procurement decision model is evaluated by means of predicting the expected turnover using the procurement decision model solution, and then comparing it to the turnover achieved using the procurement strategy followed by the store owner. The model is not prescriptive — the decision maker ...

  14. Integrated models to support multiobjective ecological restoration decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Hannah; Rumpff, Libby; Yen, Jian D L; Robinson, Doug; Wintle, Brendan A

    2017-12-01

    Many objectives motivate ecological restoration, including improving vegetation condition, increasing the range and abundance of threatened species, and improving species richness and diversity. Although models have been used to examine the outcomes of ecological restoration, few researchers have attempted to develop models to account for multiple, potentially competing objectives. We developed a combined state-and-transition, species-distribution model to predict the effects of restoration actions on vegetation condition and extent, bird diversity, and the distribution of several bird species in southeastern Australian woodlands. The actions reflected several management objectives. We then validated the models against an independent data set and investigated how the best management decision might change when objectives were valued differently. We also used model results to identify effective restoration options for vegetation and bird species under a constrained budget. In the examples we evaluated, no one action (improving vegetation condition and extent, increasing bird diversity, or increasing the probability of occurrence for threatened species) provided the best outcome across all objectives. In agricultural lands, the optimal management actions for promoting the occurrence of the Brown Treecreeper (Climacteris picumnus), an iconic threatened species, resulted in little improvement in the extent of the vegetation and a high probability of decreased vegetation condition. This result highlights that the best management action in any situation depends on how much the different objectives are valued. In our example scenario, no management or weed control were most likely to be the best management options to satisfy multiple restoration objectives. Our approach to exploring trade-offs in management outcomes through integrated modeling and structured decision-support approaches has wide application for situations in which trade-offs exist between competing

  15. Construction Of A Performance Assessment Model For Zakat Management Institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Fadilah

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the research is to examine the performance evaluation using Balanced Scorecard model. The research is conducted due to a big gap existing between zakat (alms and religious tax in Islam with its potential earn of as much as 217 trillion rupiahs and the realization of the collected zakat fund that is only reached for three trillion. This indicates that the performance of zakat management organizations in collecting the zakat is still very low. On the other hand, the quantity and the quality of zakat management organizations have to be improved. This means the performance evaluation model as a tool to evaluate performance is needed. The model construct is making a performance evaluation model that can be implemented to zakat management organizations. The organizational performance with Balanced Scorecard evaluation model will be effective if it is supported by three aspects, namely:  PI, BO and TQM. This research uses explanatory method and data analysis tool of SEM/PLS. Data collecting technique are questionnaires, interviews and documentation. The result of this research shows that PI, BO and TQM simultaneously and partially gives a significant effect on organizational performance.

  16. Recurrent Neural Network Model for Constructive Peptide Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Alex T; Hiss, Jan A; Schneider, Gisbert

    2018-02-26

    We present a generative long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) for combinatorial de novo peptide design. RNN models capture patterns in sequential data and generate new data instances from the learned context. Amino acid sequences represent a suitable input for these machine-learning models. Generative models trained on peptide sequences could therefore facilitate the design of bespoke peptide libraries. We trained RNNs with LSTM units on pattern recognition of helical antimicrobial peptides and used the resulting model for de novo sequence generation. Of these sequences, 82% were predicted to be active antimicrobial peptides compared to 65% of randomly sampled sequences with the same amino acid distribution as the training set. The generated sequences also lie closer to the training data than manually designed amphipathic helices. The results of this study showcase the ability of LSTM RNNs to construct new amino acid sequences within the applicability domain of the model and motivate their prospective application to peptide and protein design without the need for the exhaustive enumeration of sequence libraries.

  17. The SDM 3 Circle Model: A Literature Synthesis and Adaptation for Shared Decision Making in the Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rennke, Stephanie; Yuan, Patrick; Monash, Brad; Blankenburg, Rebecca; Chua, Ian; Harman, Stephanie; Sakai, Debbie S; Khan, Adeena; Hilton, Joan F; Shieh, Lisa; Satterfield, Jason

    2017-12-01

    Patient engagement through shared decision-making (SDM) is increasingly seen as a key component for patient safety, patient satisfaction, and quality of care. Current SDM models do not adequately account for medical and environmental contexts, which may influence medical decisions in the hospital. We identified leading SDM models and reviews to inductively construct a novel SDM model appropriate for the inpatient setting. A team of medicine and pediatric hospitalists reviewed the literature to integrate core SDM concepts and processes and iteratively constructed a synthesized draft model. We then solicited broad SDM expert feedback on the draft model for validation and further refinement. The SDM 3 Circle Model identifies 3 core categories of variables that dynamically interact within an "environmental frame." The resulting Venn diagram includes overlapping circles for (1) patient/family, (2) provider/team, and (3) medical context. The environmental frame includes all external, contextual factors that may influence any of the 3 circles. Existing multistep SDM process models were then rearticulated and contextualized to illustrate how a shared decision might be made. The SDM 3 Circle Model accounts for important environmental and contextual characteristics that vary across settings. The visual emphasis generated by each "circle" and by the environmental frame direct attention to often overlooked interactive forces and has the potential to more precisely define, promote, and improve SDM. This model provides a framework to develop interventions to improve quality and patient safety through SDM and patient engagement for hospitalists. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine.

  18. Using Apex To Construct CPM-GOMS Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, Bonnie; Vera, Alonso; Matessa, Michael; Freed, Michael; Remington, Roger

    2006-01-01

    process for automatically generating computational models of human/computer interactions as well as graphical and textual representations of the models has been built on the conceptual foundation of a method known in the art as CPM-GOMS. This method is so named because it combines (1) the task decomposition of analysis according to an underlying method known in the art as the goals, operators, methods, and selection (GOMS) method with (2) a model of human resource usage at the level of cognitive, perceptual, and motor (CPM) operations. CPM-GOMS models have made accurate predictions about behaviors of skilled computer users in routine tasks, but heretofore, such models have been generated in a tedious, error-prone manual process. In the present process, CPM-GOMS models are generated automatically from a hierarchical task decomposition expressed by use of a computer program, known as Apex, designed previously to be used to model human behavior in complex, dynamic tasks. An inherent capability of Apex for scheduling of resources automates the difficult task of interleaving the cognitive, perceptual, and motor resources that underlie common task operators (e.g., move and click mouse). The user interface of Apex automatically generates Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) charts, which enable modelers to visualize the complex parallel behavior represented by a model. Because interleaving and the generation of displays to aid visualization are automated, it is now feasible to construct arbitrarily long sequences of behaviors. The process was tested by using Apex to create a CPM-GOMS model of a relatively simple human/computer-interaction task and comparing the time predictions of the model and measurements of the times taken by human users in performing the various steps of the task. The task was to withdraw $80 in cash from an automated teller machine (ATM). For the test, a Visual Basic mockup of an ATM was created, with a provision for input from (and measurement

  19. Expanding business-to-business customer relationships : modeling the customer's upgrade decision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolton, R.; Lemon, K.N.; Verhoef, P.C.

    This article develops a model of a business customer's decision to upgrade service contracts conditional on the decision to renew the contract. It proposes that the firm's upgrade decision is influenced by (1) decision-maker perceptions of the relationship with the supplier, (2) contract-level

  20. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COOPER, J. ARLIN

    1999-01-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and