Lobanova, E. N.; Zmitrovich, A. I.; Voshevoz, A. A.; Krivko-Krasko, A. V.
In this article we consider concepts and components of the Financial Decision Making System that is being developed in the Institute of Business and Management Technology, BSU. Such system can be successfully used either for training experts in financial analytics and financial management or for financial managers and financial directors in an enterprise for the effective financial decision making.
-dormancy transition is primarily mediated by (p)ppGpp fluctuation. In the second topic, we discuss the transition paths between two stable steady states. We construct a simple model of coupled bistable gene circuits and demonstrate the possibility of bifurcation of transition path in biology. We then construct...... a theory to predict whether a general coupled bistable system exhibits bifurcated path or not and verify the theory through numerical simulation. We also show that a primary function of bifurcated paths is to facilitate transition by lowering the associated action. In the third topic, we discuss...
S. NAZARI-SHIRKOUHI; A. ANSARINEJAD; SS. MIRI-NARGESI; V. MAJAZI DALFARD; K. REZAIE
During the last decade, information system (IS) outsourcing has emerged as a major issue for organizations. As outsourcing decisions are often based on multicriteria approaches and group decisions, this paper proposes a structured methodology based on Fuzzy group decision making approach to evaluate and select the appropriate information system project (ISP) in an actual case. To achieve our purpose, we argue that seven criteria consisting of risk, management, economics, technology, resource,...
Kathrin Rodríguez Llanes
Full Text Available Making decisions is complicated in a generalized way, the materials and humans resources of the entity we belong to depends on it, such as the fulfillment of its goals. But when the situations are complex, making decisions turns into a very difficult work, due to the great amount of aspects to consider when making the right choice. To make this efficiently the administration must to consult an important volume of information, which generally, is scattered and in any different formats. That’s why appears the need of developing software that crowd together all that information and be capable of, by using powerful search engines and process algorithms improve the good decisions making process. Considering previous explanation, a complete freeware developed product is proposed, this constitutes a generic and multi-platform solution, that using artificial intelligence techniques, specifically the cases based reasoning, gives the possibility to leaders of any institution or organism of making the right choice in any situation.With client-server architecture, this system is consumed from web as a service and it can be perfectly integrated with a management system or the geographic information system to facilitate the business process.
While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the
Yurtseven, M. Kudret; Buchanan, Walter W.
Decision making in most universities is taught within the conventional OR/MS (Operations Research/Management Science) paradigm. This paradigm is known to be "hard" since it is consisted of mathematical tools, and normally suitable for solving structured problems. In complex situations the conventional OR/MS paradigm proves to be…
Mancini, D.; Vaassen, E.H.J.; Dameri, R.P.
This book contains a collection of research papers on accounting information systems including their strategic role in decision processes, within and between companies. An accounting system is a complex system composed of a mix of strictly interrelated elements such as data, information, human
Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.
Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.
As a feedback mechanism to promote or improve the quality of clinical decisions in nursing, standards for quality clinical decision-making are proposed in an exemplary manner. In addition, a system for quality clinical decisionmaking in nursing capitalises on the heritage of the nursing process. Considering the changes and ...
Linking Health Information Systems for Effective Decision Making (East Africa). Researchers have suggested that collaborative health systems research can improve the performance of a district health system (DHS). This collaborative research project will test an integrated community-based health information system ...
Reinforcement and Systemic Machine Learning for Decision Making There are always difficulties in making machines that learn from experience. Complete information is not always available-or it becomes available in bits and pieces over a period of time. With respect to systemic learning, there is a need to understand the impact of decisions and actions on a system over that period of time. This book takes a holistic approach to addressing that need and presents a new paradigm-creating new learning applications and, ultimately, more intelligent machines. The first book of its kind in this new an
Effective decision making requires a clear methodology, particularly in a complex world of globalisation. Institutions and companies in all disciplines and sectors are faced with increasingly multi-faceted areas of uncertainty which cannot always be effectively handled by traditional strategies. Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision making to face the many current challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value to strategic decision making, Complex Strategic Choices presents a methodology which is further illustrated by a number of case studies and example applications. Dr. Techn. Steen Leleur has adapted previously established research based on feedback and input from various conferences, journals and students resulting in new material stemming from and focusing on practical application of a systemic approach. The outcome is a coher...
This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
Sound decision-making processes for investments in water supply systems need to be developed. This need arises from the problem observed in developing countries of a growing demand for water supply projects coupled with a lack of financial resources available to invest in them. A second problem is the selection of a ...
interests as regards the outcome represented by different group members. The process is guided by a facilitator and is assisted by an analyst, with the analyst providing ongoing, interactive modelling. This collective (man/machine) learning aims to lead to a final decision (or decision recommendation) about......) and soft (qualitative) operations research (OR) methods; especially the latter have a function as regards knowledge generation that relates to obtaining systemic insights. Furthermore, SP applies a process that drives group-based learning forward. The group should be formed with the different stakeholder...... the best alternative or course of action for the actual strategic planning problem. The flexibility of SP makes it adaptable to different problem types. The paper is disposed as follows: After the Introduction about green decision making, Section 2 presents five SP-perspectives, where each perspective...
Zanazzi, José Luis; Gomes, Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro; Dimitroff, Magdalena
This paper describes an application in group decision making, aimed at developing a procedure to help define priorities in preventive maintenance activities. The method applied is called DRV Processes (Decision with Reduction of Variability) and it combines both statistical techniques and multicriteria decision aid procedures. Among its advantages, we may highlight the possibility of reducing the noise affecting information in group decision making and of reaching a consensual decision. This ...
Kasamatsu, Mizuki; Hanada, Satoshi; Noda, Eisuke
Decision Make Supporting System is designed to support appropriate decision made by top management in the nuclear severe conditions. With crisis response in nuclear power plant (NPP), information entanglement between sites and control centers during intense situations interfere with prompt and accurate decision making. This research started with that kind of background. In order to solve the issue of the information entanglement, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Inc. (MHI) carried out the development of the Decision Make Supporting System and the system applies the technology combining the human factors engineering (HFE) and information and communication technology (ICT). During the crisis response, various commands, reactions and communications in a human system need to be managed. Therefore, the combined HFE method including detailed task analysis, user experience (UX), graphic user interface (GUI) and related human-system interface (HSI) design method is applied to the design of the system. These design results systematize the functions that prevent interference with decision-making in the headquarters for incident management. This new solution as a system enhances the safety improvement of the NPP and contributes to develop the skills and abilities of the resources in the NPP. The system has three key features for supporting emergency situations: 'understanding the situation', 'planning the next action', and 'managing resources'. The system helps commanders and responders to grasp the whole situation and allows them to share information in real time to get a whole picture, and the system accumulates the data of the past events in the chronological order to understand correctly how they happened and plan the next action by using a knowledge database that MHI has been developed. If the unexpected event happens which are not in the incident scenario, the system provides support to formulate alternative strategies and measures. With this
Proctor, Robert W; Yih, Yuehwern
This book brings together an interdisciplinary group of experts to provide increased understanding of the ways in which cultural differences may influence decision making and action. It brings together current knowledge about decision processes, culture and cognition, design of products and interfaces for human interaction with machines and organizational processes culled from a wide variety of sources and puts them into one comprehensive resource. It examines how to design systems used by individuals from different cultures and accommodate the varied backgrounds that affect the users' decisio
Taking major life decisions, e.g. what career to follow, is difficult and sometimes emotional. One has to find out what exactly one wants, consider the long-term consequences of the decisions and be empathetic for loved ones affected by the decisions. Decision making also deals with establishing and
The book is based on my participation in the SUSTAIN research project 2012-2017 about National Sustainable Transport Planning funded by the Danish Research Council (Innovationsfonden). Many of the issues treated here have a backdrop in my book Complex Strategic Choices – Applying Systemic Planning...... for Strategic Management. The book was published in 2012 by Springer-Verlag, London, as a research monograph in the publisher’s series about Decision Engineering. The intention behind this new book – with its focus upon ‘greening’ of strategic decisions – is to provide a general and less technical description...... of the possibilities that a systemic approach to complex planning problems seems to offer. As will appear, the presentation of systemic planning (SP) below is primarily based on applying SP to transport infrastructure investments. However, SP in its process and methodological outline should not be seen as restricted...
Neilan, James H.; Cross, Charles; Rothhaar, Paul; Tran, Loc; Motter, Mark; Qualls, Garry; Trujillo, Anna; Allen, B. Danette
Autonomous decision making in the presence of uncertainly is a deeply studied problem space particularly in the area of autonomous systems operations for land, air, sea, and space vehicles. Various techniques ranging from single algorithm solutions to complex ensemble classifier systems have been utilized in a research context in solving mission critical flight decisions. Realized systems on actual autonomous hardware, however, is a difficult systems integration problem, constituting a majority of applied robotics development timelines. The ability to reliably and repeatedly classify objects during a vehicles mission execution is vital for the vehicle to mitigate both static and dynamic environmental concerns such that the mission may be completed successfully and have the vehicle operate and return safely. In this paper, the Autonomy Incubator proposes and discusses an ensemble learning and recognition system planned for our autonomous framework, AEON, in selected domains, which fuse decision criteria, using prior experience on both the individual classifier layer and the ensemble layer to mitigate environmental uncertainty during operation.
Fischer, T; Brothers, K B; Erdmann, P; Langanke, M
Systems medicine is the name for an assemblage of scientific strategies and practices that include bioinformatics approaches to human biology (especially systems biology); "big data" statistical analysis; and medical informatics tools. Whereas personalized and precision medicine involve similar analytical methods applied to genomic and medical record data, systems medicine draws on these as well as other sources of data. Given this distinction, the clinical translation of systems medicine poses a number of important ethical and epistemological challenges for researchers working to generate systems medicine knowledge and clinicians working to apply it. This article focuses on three key challenges: First, we will discuss the conflicts in decision-making that can arise when healthcare providers committed to principles of experimental medicine or evidence-based medicine encounter individualized recommendations derived from computer algorithms. We will explore in particular whether controlled experiments, such as comparative effectiveness trials, should mediate the translation of systems medicine, or if instead individualized findings generated through "big data" approaches can be applied directly in clinical decision-making. Second, we will examine the case of the Riyadh Intensive Care Program Mortality Prediction Algorithm, pejoratively referred to as the "death computer," to demonstrate the ethical challenges that can arise when big-data-driven scoring systems are applied in clinical contexts. We argue that the uncritical use of predictive clinical algorithms, including those envisioned for systems medicine, challenge basic understandings of the doctor-patient relationship. Third, we will build on the recent discourse on secondary findings in genomics and imaging to draw attention to the important implications of secondary findings derived from the joint analysis of data from diverse sources, including data recorded by patients in an attempt to realize their
McGuinness, Kevin M
Organized medicine (OM) is an institution built to defend the American health care system of the 20th century. The institutional structures that it employed, however, operated mechanically and independently of its practitioner base, which drew from physician and nonphysician health professions. This article suggests that OM's institutional structures were founded and defended by a "logic of confidence," which initially served as a buffer against external socioeconomic pressures. The institutional structures of OM came to be treated systemically as rules (e.g.,"Trust me, I'm a doctor" and "The doctor knows best"), biasing and guiding organizational decision making and activities. Such rules were inculcated through professional education and clinical practice and were promulgated to the public by OM's practitioner and consumer base. OM so effectively promoted its rules that they were installed as powerful myths in the American psyche. So powerful were these myths that even OM was prevented from updating its identity to match its changing socioeconomic context. Instead, OM compartmentalized and sequestered its operational components from the public and from one another, effectively decoupling its identity from its activities and its context. In this manner, OM maintained an outmoded status quo when confronted by changing socioeconomic circumstances. The author explains how OM's failure to adapt has impelled the strongest representatives of all health professions to resist top-down decoupling in favor of bottom-up identity maturation, applying a new "logic of appropriateness." The logic of appropriateness is offered as a framework to guard against biased decision making and to ensure that institutional and individual identity, context, and decision making are coordinated and relevant. A new, public health-led, American health system is described in which the family physician and family nurse practitioner co-lead primary care practice and in which professional
In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market
The cyber-physical system (CPS) is a relatively new interdisciplinary technology area that includes the general class of embedded and hybrid systems. CPSs require integration of computation and physical processes that involves the aspects of physical quantities such as time, energy and space during information processing and control. The physical space is the source of information and the cyber space makes use of the generated information to make decisions. This dissertation proposes an overall architecture of autonomous perception-based decision & control of complex cyber-physical systems. Perception involves the recently developed framework of Symbolic Dynamic Filtering for abstraction of physical world in the cyber space. For example, under this framework, sensor observations from a physical entity are discretized temporally and spatially to generate blocks of symbols, also called words that form a language. A grammar of a language is the set of rules that determine the relationships among words to build sentences. Subsequently, a physical system is conjectured to be a linguistic source that is capable of generating a specific language. The proposed technology is validated on various (experimental and simulated) case studies that include health monitoring of aircraft gas turbine engines, detection and estimation of fatigue damage in polycrystalline alloys, and parameter identification. Control of complex cyber-physical systems involve distributed sensing, computation, control as well as complexity analysis. A novel statistical mechanics-inspired complexity analysis approach is proposed in this dissertation. In such a scenario of networked physical systems, the distribution of physical entities determines the underlying network topology and the interaction among the entities forms the abstract cyber space. It is envisioned that the general contributions, made in this dissertation, will be useful for potential application areas such as smart power grids and
The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
Leonardo Yuji Tamura
Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.
José Luis Zanazzi
Full Text Available This paper describes an application in group decision making, aimed at developing a procedure to help define priorities in preventive maintenance activities. The method applied is called DRV Processes (Decision with Reduction of Variability and it combines both statistical techniques and multicriteria decision aid procedures. Among its advantages, we may highlight the possibility of reducing the noise affecting information in group decision making and of reaching a consensual decision. This approach generally improves the level of shared knowledge and helps to avoid conflict within the group. The application was carried out in a major pharmaceutical production plant. The experience showed an eighty per cent reduction in the original amount of process noise. Moreover, the paper describes evidence of improvement in interpersonal relationships.
Full Text Available The article discusses the theoretical and methodological positions in the formation of info-syntanalitical management providing service. The author determines the directions in the improvement of the info-accounting formalization within the social phenomena and processes due to using there the info-syntanalitical identification. The management process, which is essentially the exchange of information between the management object and the management system, is examined. It is proved the necessity of the information, which should be objective, reliable, understandable, completed and useful for making or amending managerial decisions. The information sources used for decision-making are explored. It is determined that they serve as statistical observation, accounting and various off-classified data that characterize market and climatic conditions, regulatory environment, political stability, investment climate, etc. It is argued that the basis of the service activity is the staff, methods and conditions of service, while the effectiveness of the service depends on the correct management activity, which is provided by informative needs at different levels carried out with the help of information-syntactical service. The necessity of research was emphasized as the triad consisting of information, analytics and service, the task of which is to use existing information, to identify the reasons of process (situation undesirable development and to synthesize the results of the analytical assessment, to determine the reasonable directions of solving problem and in the most appropriate form to convey the possible options of managerial decisions to users, i.e. to create a high-quality service. It is generalized that the essence of the info-syntalitical service is expressed through the improvement of management efficiency by the improving display of in-depth reflection and reasonable prediction of the developing management object, as well as increasing the
G.H. van Bruggen (Gerrit); B. Wierenga (Berend)
textabstractMarketing management support systems (MMSS) are computer-enabled devices that help marketers to make better decisions. Marketing processes can be quite complex, involving large numbers of variables and mostly outcomes are the results of the actions of many different stakeholders (e.g.,
The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)
Matrosov, Evgenii S.; Woods, Ashley M.; Harou, Julien J.
Stationarity assumptions of linked human-water systems are frequently invalid given the difficult-to-predict changes affecting such systems. In this case water planning occurs under conditions of deep or severe uncertainty, where the statistical distributions of future conditions and events are poorly known. In such situations predictive system simulation models are typically run under different scenarios to evaluate the performance of future plans under different conditions. Given that there are many possible plans and many possible futures, which simulations will lead to the best designs? Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) provide a structured approach to planning complex systems under such uncertainty. Both RDM and IGDT make repeated use of trusted simulation models to evaluate different plans under different future conditions. Both methods seek to identify robust rather than optimal decisions, where a robust decision works satisfactorily over a broad range of possible futures. IGDT efficiently charts system performance with robustness and opportuneness plots summarising system performance for different plans under the most dire and favourable sets of future conditions. RDM samples a wider range of dire, benign and opportune futures and offers a holistic assessment of the performance of different options. RDM also identifies through ‘scenario discovery' which combinations of uncertain future stresses lead to system vulnerabilities. In our study we apply both frameworks to a water resource system planning problem: London's water supply system expansion in the Thames basin, UK. The methods help identify which out of 20 proposed water supply infrastructure portfolios is the most robust given severely uncertain future hydrological inflows, water demands and energy prices. Multiple criteria of system performance are considered: service reliability, storage susceptibility, capital and operating cost, energy use and environmental flows
Full Text Available Many organizations are in front of most competitive economic environments, where, in order to survive, they must reduce costs all the time and adopt the most intelligent business strategies. In most decision making activities the manager has to decide which variant is the most advantageous, taking into account a multitude of criterions. Expert systems use the expert's knowledge and problem solving skills in a particular subject area throughout an organization, and can propose the optimal variant to be chosen. In this paper we have outlined the role of multicriterial methods in programming expert systems to decide in favor of the most eligible variant between a multitude of possibilities. We also made a case study and designed the prototype of an expert system for choosing the most profitable offer among many, in the prenegotiation stage, for a company, in order to organize the negotiation processes accor-dingly. In this respect, we tried to highlight the usefulness of multicriterial mathematical me-thods in three negotiation processes of a Romanian negotiation team with foreign negotiation teams for the acquisition of an equipment.
Jain, Lakhmi C
The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c
A concept and plan is proposed for a system to record on-going decision-making by the AECB so that the decision-making can be retrieved in the future. The system could also be used to retrieve past decision-making. (author). 4 tabs., 1 fig
Davenport, Thomas H
Traditionally, decision making in organizations has rarely been the focus of systematic analysis. That may account for the astounding number of recent poor calls, such as decisions to invest in and securitize subprime mortgage loans or to hedge risk with credit default swaps. Business books are rich with insights about the decision process, but organizations have been slow to adopt their recommendations. It's time to focus on decision making, Davenport says, and he proposes four steps: (1) List and prioritize the decisions that must be made; (2) assess the factors that go into each, such as who plays what role, how often the decision must be made, and what information is available to support it; (3) design the roles, processes, systems, and behaviors your organization needs; and (4) institutionalize decision tools and assistance. The Educational Testing Service and The Stanley Works, among others, have succeeded in improving their decisions. ETS established a centralized deliberative body to make evidence-based decisions about new-product offerings, and Stanley has a Pricing Center of Excellence with internal consultants dedicated to its various business units. Leaders should bring multiple perspectives to their decision making, beware of analytical models that managers don't understand, be clear about their assumptions, practice "model management," and--because only people can revise decision criteria over time--cultivate human backups.
Bruggen, Gerrit; Wierenga, Berend
textabstractMarketing management support systems (MMSS) are computer-enabled devices that help marketers to make better decisions. Marketing processes can be quite complex, involving large numbers of variables and mostly outcomes are the results of the actions of many different stakeholders (e.g., the company itself, its customers, its competitors). Moreover, a large number of interdependencies exist between the relevant variables and the outcomes of marketing actions are subject to major unc...
... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...
Idri, Ali; Kadi, Ilham
Autonomic nervous system (ANS) is the part of the nervous system that is involved in homeostasis of the whole body functions. A malfunction in this system can lead to a cardiovascular dysautonomias. Hence, a set of dynamic tests are adopted in ANS units to diagnose and treat patients with cardiovascular dysautonomias. The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a decision tree based cardiovascular dysautonomias prediction system on a dataset collected from the ANS unit of the Moroccan university hospital Avicenne. We collected a dataset of 263 records from the ANS unit of the Avicenne hospital. This dataset was split into three subsets: training set (123 records), test set (55 records) and validation set (85 records). C4.5 decision tree algorithm was used in this study to develop the prediction system. Moreover, Java Enterprise Edition platform was used to implement a prototype of the developed system which was deployed in the Avicenne ANS unit so as to be clinically validated. The performance of the decision tree-based prediction system was evaluated by means of the error rate criterion. The error rates were measured for each classifier and have achieved an average value of 1.46, 2.24 and 0.89 % in training, test, and validation sets respectively. The results obtained were encouraging but further replicated studies are still needed to be performed in order to confirm the findings of this study.
Dr. Filiz Gürder
Geographic information systems can make important contributions to logistic companies in the following areas: Routing, Optimization and Scheduling, Asset Tracking, Dispatching/Mobile, Territory Optimization and Planning, Site Selection and Optimization, Supply Chain Management, and Selecting the Supplier.
Campbell, Merle Wayne
Intelligent decision systems have the potential to support and greatly amplify human decision-making across a number of industries and domains. However, despite the rapid improvement in the underlying capabilities of these "intelligent" systems, increasing their acceptance as decision aids in industry has remained a formidable challenge.…
EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta
Jul 4, 2005 ... HASL (2001) Impacto do saneamento básico na saúde da popu- lação. Proc. 21st Cong. Bras. Eng. Sanitária e Ambiental. João Pes- soa, Paraíba, Brasil. MORAIS DC and ALMEIDA AT (2002) Multicriteria decision-aid for implementation of water supply system. Proc. MIM 2002: 5th Int. Conf. on Managing ...
Hammer, John M.; Wan, C. Yoon; Vasandani, Vijay
The current research is focused on detection of human error and protection from its consequences. A program for monitoring pilot error by comparing pilot actions to a script was described. It dealt primarily with routine errors (slips) that occurred during checklist activity. The model to which operator actions were compared was a script. Current research is an extension along these two dimensions. The ORS fault detection aid uses a sophisticated device model rather than a script. The newer initiative, the model-based and constraint-based warning system, uses an even more sophisticated device model and is to prevent all types of error, not just slips or bad decision.
System dynamics was originally founded as a method for modeling and simulating the behavior of industrial systems. In recent years it is increasingly employed as a Group Support System for strategic decision-making groups. The model is constructed in direct interaction with a management team, and
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it
Grasso, Raffaele; Giannecchini, Simone
.... This paper describes a tactical decision aid system based on fuzzy logic reasoning for data fusion and on current Open Geospatial Consortium specifications for interoperability, data dissemination...
Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia; Hassanzadeh, Elmira
Manitoba. The model highlights the spatial tradeoffs across the three provinces and sectoral trade-offs among the differing water uses. These trade-offs represent challenging dilemmas for water management decisions in a complex system. The study reveals the need for a holistic framework of water resources analysis that can dynamically capture the feedback loops among hydrological, social, and administrative/political analysis units to support public discussion of critical water tradeoffs and a consensual water value framework to guide future development decisions.
Starke, Jens; Berkemer, Rainer
of the workshop Decision making and uncertainty in nonlinear complex systems for their valuable input on topics like uncertainty, nonlinearity, and complex systems in general. Scientists with different research backgrounds from various fields discussed several aspects of mathematical methods for decision making...
Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David
Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process. The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider: · how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions; · how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available; ...
Shershakov, V.; Kosykh, V.; Borodin, R.
networks such as internet. TCS provides different programs an access to information and programming resources on separate computers-servers of the RECASS NT system. Access to resources is arranged by the 'client-server' scheme. In addition to interaction with the client part, TCS makes possible routine exchange of data between different servers, which provides a basis for creating a distributed information environment. The main requirement for creating such an environment is availability of sockets on all computers interconnected by this environment. The integrated DB of the RECASS NT consists of three main parts: the operational DB, the DB of systemic data and the DB with calculation results. In accordance with the overall structure of the system the software of the models for environmental dispersion of radionuclides consists of three modules. First, the module for formation/correction of model parameters which is a graphic interface with mapping capabilities. Secondly, calculation blocks of the models. And finally, the module for presentation of results common for all models. The standard chain of calculation modules includes: a module for scenario preparation; a module for preparing calculation parameters; a meteoprocessor; a block for modules to calculate atmospheric transport; a hydrological block; a model for calculating dose characteristics; a module to calculate areas in which protection measures need to be carried out; a generator of reports. A block for presentation of results shared by different models makes possible presenting results of calculation models, both in the course of calculations and an their completion. (author)
Wei Yanhui; Su Desong; Chen Weihua; Zhang Jianbo
The article first reviewed three operation support systems currently used in NPP: real-time information surveillance system, important equipment surveillance system and plant process control and monitoring system, then presents the structure and function of three expert support sub-systems (intelligent alarm monitoring system, computer-based operating procedure support system, safety information expert decision support system). Finally the article discussed the meaning of a kind of operation decision making support system. (authors)
Kert, Serhat Bahadir; Uz, Cigdem; Gecu, Zeynep
This study examined the effectiveness of an electronic performance support system (EPSS) on computer ethics education and the ethical decision-making processes. There were five different phases to this ten month study: (1) Writing computer ethics scenarios, (2) Designing a decision-making framework (3) Developing EPSS software (4) Using EPSS in a…
Dr.Sc. Mihane Berisha- Namani
Full Text Available Traditionally, information systems were used to support operational functions and to reduce costs by automating many of business operations. As business has become more aware of the importance of information systems, the role of information systems has changed. From its conventional function of supporting business operations, today information systems are used to reduce business risks and to ensure that correct information is made available, so managers can make better decisions. The purpose of this paper is to give an understanding how businesses are using information systems to achieve their goals. It specifically addresses more closely the impact that information systems have in improving the decision making. Althought limited this paper sets out to explore the importance of information systems in decision making and concludes that more attention should be paid to information systems usage for decision making purposes. Finally, suggestions for further research are made.
Stottler, Richard H; Pike, Bill
We are developing for STRICOM an Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) for tank and mechanized infantry company commanders that teaches tactical decision making and the tactical use of FBCB2, a C4I system...
...: sensors, actuators, mechatronic systems and tools in Minimally Invasive Surgery (MIS) and Microsurgery require nonlinear interpretation and control systems to interface with the computer-assisted decision making process of the surgeon at work...
Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky
Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis
PhD. Associate Professor Department of Management & Informatics Mihane Berisha-Namani
Full Text Available In modern conditions of globalisation and development of information technology, information processing activities have come to be seen as essential to successful of businesses and organizations. Information has become essential to make decisions and crucial asset in organisations, whereas information systems is technology required for information processing. The application of information systems technology in business and organisations has opened up new possibilities for running and managing organisations, as well as has improved management decision making. The purpose of this paper is to give an understanding of the role that information systems have in management decision making and to discuss the possibilities how managers of organisations can make best use of information systems. The paper starts with identifying the functions of management and managerial roles and continue with information systems usage in three levels of decision making. It specifically addresses the way how information systems can help managers reduce uncertainty in decision making and includes some important implications of information systems usage for managers. Thus, this study provide a framework of effective use of information systems generally and offers an alternative approach to investigate the impact that information systems technology have in management decision making specifically
Lehmann, Harold P.; Shortliffe, Edward H.
Previous knowledge-based systems for statistical analysis separate the numeric knowledge needed for data analysis from the heuristic knowledge employed in using the results of the analysis. In contrast, a Bayesian framework for building biostatistical expert systems allows for the integration of the data-analytic and decision-making tasks. The architecture of such a framework entails enabling the system (1) to make its recommendations on decision-analytic grounds; (2) to update a statistical ...
The challenge of making training decisions with a high degree of confidence as to the results of those decisions face every DOD, Federal, State, and City agency. Training has historically been a very labor and paper intensive system with limited automation support. This paper outlines how one DOD component, the Air Force, is approaching that challenge. The Training Decision System (TDS) will provide the Air Force with an automated decision aid to help plan and estimate the consequences of various mixes of resident training, On-The-Job Training (OJT), and field training within a specialty such as security. The system described provides training from enlistment to separation and responds to hundreds of related security task needs. This system identifies what the tasks are, who should provide the training, what training setting should be used, what proficiency should be achieved, and through computer modeling provides an assessment of training effectiveness options and estimate the impact of implementing those options. With current budgetary constraints and with the possibility of further reductions in the future, the most cost effective training mix must be found to sustain required capabilities
Morlock, L L; Alexander, J A
This study utilizes data from a national survey of 159 multihospital systems in order to describe the types of governance structures currently being utilized, and to compare the policy making process for various types of decisions in systems with different approaches to governance. Survey results indicate that multihospital systems most often use one of three governance models. Forty-one percent of the systems (including 33% of system hospitals) use a parent holding company model in which there is a system-wide corporate governing board and separate governing boards for each member hospital. Twenty-two percent of systems in the sample (but 47% of all system hospitals) utilize what we have termed a modified parent holding company model in which there is one system-wide governing board, but advisory boards are substituted for governing boards at the local hospital level. Twenty-three percent of the sampled systems (including 11% of system hospitals) use a corporate model in which there is one system-wide governing board but no other governing or advisory boards at either the divisional, regional or local hospital levels. A comparison of systems using these three governance approaches found significant variation in terms of system size, ownership and the geographic proximity of member hospitals. In order to examine the relationship between alternative approaches to governance and patterns of decision-making, the three model types were compared with respect to the percentages of systems reporting that local boards, corporate management and/or system-wide corporate boards have responsibility for decision-making in a number of specific issue areas. Study results indicate that, regardless of model type, corporate boards are most likely to have responsibility for decisions regarding the transfer, pledging and sale of assets; the formation of new companies; purchase of assets greater than $100,000; changes in hospital bylaws; and the appointment of local board members. In
Hohmann , Audrey; Grandjean , Gilles
International audience; Scientists and professionals of the geotechnical, remote sensing and decision-making system domains have joined their forces in order to develop a prototype which could help military forces in decisions related to mobility. This prototype, named ECORS, intends to characterize operations theatres from Earth observation data, by producing decision-aid information for military forces projections in terrestrial zones. The system structure allows a fast and an automatic upd...
Gebrezgabher, S.A.; Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.
The intensification of livestock operations in the last few decades has resulted in an increased social concern over the environmental impacts of livestock operations and thus making appropriate manure management decisions increasingly important. A socially acceptable manure management system that
In systems engineering, design and operation of systems are two main problems which always attract researcher's attentions. The accomplishment of activities in these problems often requires proper decisions to be made so that the desired goal can be achieved, thus, decision making needs to be carefully fulfilled in the design and operation of systems. Design is a decision making process which permeates through out the design process, and is at the core of all design activities. In modern aircraft design, more and more attention is paid to the conceptual and preliminary design phases so as to increase the odds of choosing a design that will ultimately be successful at the completion of the design process, therefore, decisions made during these early design stages play a critical role in determining the success of a design. Since aerospace systems are complex systems with interacting disciplines and technologies, the Decision Makers (DMs) dealing with such design problems are involved in balancing the multiple, potentially conflicting attributes/criteria, transforming a large amount of customer supplied guidelines into a solidly defined set of requirement definitions. Thus, one could state with confidence that modern aerospace system design is a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) process. A variety of existing decision making methods are available to deal with this type of decision problems. The selection of the most appropriate decision making method is of particular importance since inappropriate decision methods are likely causes of misleading engineering design decisions. With no sufficient knowledge about each of the methods, it is usually difficult for the DMs to find an appropriate analytical model capable of solving their problems. In addition, with the complexity of the decision problem and the demand for more capable methods increasing, new decision making methods are emerging with time. These various methods exacerbate the difficulty of the selection
Ehrgott, Matthias [Auckland Univ. (New Zealand). Dept. of Engineering Science; Naujoks, Boris [Login GmbH, Schwelm (Germany).; Stewart, Theodor J. [Cape Town Univ., Rondebosch (South Africa). Dept. of Statistical Sciences; Wallenius, Jyrki (eds.) [Helsinki School of Economics (Finland). Dept. of Business Technology
In the twenty-first century the sustainability of energy and transportation systems is on the top of the political agenda in many countries around the world and governments are establishing policies towards a sustainable, low emissions energy future. Environmental impacts of human economic activity necessitate the consideration of conflicting goals in decision making processes to develop sustainable systems. Any sustainable development has to reconcile conflicting economic and environmental objectives and criteria. The science of multiple criteria decision making has a lot to offer in addressing this need. Decision making with multiple (conflicting) criteria is the topic of research that is at the heart of the International Society of Multiple Criteria Decision Making. This book is based on selected papers presented at the societies 19th International Conference, held at The University of Auckland, New Zealand, from 7th to 12th January 2008 under the theme ''MCDM for Sustainable Energy and Transportation Systems''. (orig.)
Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.
Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such
Yue Huiguo; Lin Quanyi; Zhang Jiangang
This article introduces the design features and main functions of The Nuclear and Radiation Emergency Evaluation and Decision Support System. The Ministry of Environmental Protection will construct a complete set of evaluation and decision-making system at the Nuclear Safety Center of Ministry of Environmental Protection to cope with the sudden event. The system will provide a comprehensive technical support for the consequence evaluation and decision-making of anti-terrorism event according to the responsibility of MEP in the sudden event, with the data provided by the MEP's anti-terrorism information platform. (authors)
Zheng Qiyan; Zhang Lijun; Huang Weiqi; Chen Lin
For nuclear emergency decision-making support system based on the results of radiation monitoring, its main assignment is receiving radiation monitoring data and analyzing them, to accomplish some works such as environment influence evaluation, dose assessment for emergency responder, decision-making analyzing and effectiveness evaluation for emergency actions, etc.. This system is made up of server, communication terminal, data-analyzing terminal, GPRS modules, printer, and so on. The whole system make of a LAN. The system's software is made up of six subsystems: data-analyzing subsystem, reporting subsystem, GIS subsystem, communication subsystem, user-managing subsystem and data-base. (authors)
Full Text Available Inventory management in retailers is difficult and complex decision making process which is related to the conflict criteria, also existence of cyclic changes and trend in demand is inevitable in many industries. In this paper, simulation modeling is considered as efficient tool for modeling of retailer multiproduct inventory system. For simulation model optimization, a novel multicriteria and robust surrogate model is designed based on multiple attribute decision making (MADM method, design of experiments (DOE, and principal component analysis (PCA. This approach as a main contribution of this paper, provides a framework for robust multiple criteria decision making under uncertainty.
Pastoral Households in Southwestern Nigeria. ... Efforts at improving gender division of labour in agro-pastoral system will improve social relationship, remove any form of inequality, reduce workload for women, improve living condition and create ...
Karlin, Allen J.
This paper is an account of the theoretical and practical underpinnings of the Decision-Proposal Modification Coding System (DPM), which allows researchers to study more accurately the many aspects of group decision making in organizations. Following an introduction that reviews and supports arguments for process-oriented research on decision…
This book provides essential background knowledge on the development of model-based real-world solutions in the field of control and decision making for water systems. It presents system engineering methods for modelling surface water and groundwater resources as well as water transportation systems (rivers, channels and pipelines). The models in turn provide information on both the water quantity (flow rates, water levels) of surface water and groundwater and on water quality. In addition, methods for modelling and predicting water demand are described. Sample applications of the models are presented, such as a water allocation decision support system for semi-arid regions, a multiple-criteria control model for run-of-river hydropower plants, and a supply network simulation for public services.
Mortazavi, Ahmad; Arshadi khamseh, Alireza
Inventory management in retailers is difficult and complex decision making process which is related to the conflict criteria, also existence of cyclic changes and trend in demand is inevitable in many industries. In this paper, simulation modeling is considered as efficient tool for modeling of retailer multiproduct inventory system. For simulation model optimization, a novel multicriteria and robust surrogate model is designed based on multiple attribute decision making (MADM) method, design...
Chin W. Cheong; Lee H. Jie; Mak C. Meng; Amy L.H. Lan
This article aims to develop a fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) tool that equips with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework to help users in semi-structured and unstructured decision making tasks. The tool provides portability and adaptability features by deploying the software on web platform. In addition, this system provides an integrated domain reference channel via a database connection to assist the user obtains relevant information regarding the problem domain before con...
Hester, Patrick T
This expanded second edition of the 2014 textbook features dedicated sections on action and observation, so that the reader can combine the use of the developed theoretical basis with practical guidelines for deployment. It also includes a focus on selection and use of a dedicated modeling paradigm – fuzzy cognitive mapping – to facilitate use of the proposed multi-methodology. The end goal of the text is a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to structuring and assessing complex problems, including a dedicated discussion of thinking, acting, and observing complex problems. The multi-methodology developed is scientifically grounded in systems theory and its accompanying principles, while the process emphasizes the nonlinear nature of all complex problem-solving endeavors. The authors’ clear and consistent chapter structure facilitates the book’s use in the classroom.
Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul
developments and feeding that information into strategic decisions will enable higher quality outcomes and better adaptive responses for persistent performance. Thus we review relevant parts of the strategic decision making literature to conceptualize the responsive decision making model and propose a study......Strategic decision making remains a focal point in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices effectively under turbulent and unpredictable environmental conditions. Hence......, the aim of this study is to gain deeper insights into the complex and multifaceted decision processes that take place in large complex organizations operating in dynamic high-velocity markets. It is proposed that the ability to obtain faster, more accurate and updated insights about ongoing environmental...
Coroiu, A. M.
We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk
Meer, van Floor; Charbonnier, Lisette; Smeets, Paul A.M.
Food decisions determine energy intake. Since overconsumption is the main driver of obesity, the effects of weight status on food decision-making are of increasing interest. An additional factor of interest is age, given the rise in childhood obesity, weight gain with aging, and the increased
Jonassen, David H.
Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…
This research examined the functions and roles of public library systems in New York State and the services they provide for individual libraries and the public. The dissertation further studied the service decision-making processes at three selected New York State cooperative public library systems. Public library systems have played an important…
Bakker, E.J.; Sanden, van de P.A.C.M.
Greenhouse cropping systems have various objectives and can be controlled in various ways. Selection or design of an optimal cropping system requires weighing of the objectives as well as proper understanding of the input-output relations of the system. The field of Multiple Criteria Decision Making
Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo
We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....
Wang Jiangjiang; Jing Youyin; Zhang Chunfa; Shi Guohua; Zhang Xutao
The decision making for trigeneration systems is a compositive project and it should be evaluated and compared in a multi-criteria analysis method. This paper presents a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model (FMCDM) for trigeneration systems selection and evaluation. The multi-criteria decision-making methods are briefly reviewed combining the general decision-making process. Then the fuzzy set theory, weighting method and the FMCDM model are presented. Finally, several kinds of trigeneration systems, whose dynamical sources are, respectively stirling engine, gas turbine, gas engine and solid oxide fuel cell, are compared and evaluated with a separate generation system. The case for selecting the optimal trigeneration system applied to a residential building is assessed from the technical, economical, environmental and social aspects, and the FMCDM model combining analytic hierarchical process is applied to the trigeneration case to demonstrate the decision-making process and effectiveness of proposed model. The results show that the gas engine plus lithium bromide absorption water heater/chiller unit for the residential building is the best scheme in the five options
Jalote-Parmar, Ashis; Badke-Schaub, Petra; Ali, Wajid; Samset, Eigil
The development of expert decision-making systems, which improve task performance and reduce errors within an intra-operative clinical workspace, is critically dependent on two main aspects: (a) Analyzing the clinical requirements and cognitive processes within the workflow and (b) providing an optimal context for accurate situation awareness through effective intra-operative information visualization. This paper presents a workflow centered framework and its theoretical underpinnings to design expert decision-making systems. The framework integrates knowledge of the clinical workflow based on the requirements within the clinical workspace. Furthermore, it builds upon and integrates the theory of situation awareness into system design to improve decision-making. As an application example, this framework has been used to design an intra-operative visualization system (IVS), which provides image guidance to the clinicians to perform minimally invasive procedure. An evaluative study, comparing the traditional ultrasound guided procedure with the new developed IVS, has been conducted with expert intervention radiologists and medical students. The results reveal significant evidence for improved decision-making when using the IVS. Therefore, it can be stated that this study demonstrates the benefits of integrating knowledge of cognitive processes into system development to support clinical decision-making and hence improvement of task performance and prevention of errors.
Zhang, Yang; Prescott, Darren
Due to the environments in which they will operate, future autonomous systems must be capable of reconfiguring quickly and safely following faults or environmental changes. Past research has shown how, by considering autonomous systems to perform phased missions, reliability analysis can support decision making by allowing comparison of the probability of success of different missions following reconfiguration. Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) offer fast, accurate reliability analysis that cou...
McCallum, Jacqueline; Duffy, Kathleen; Hastie, Elizabeth; Ness, Valerie; Price, Lesley
This paper is presented to contribute to the emerging debate on Early Warning Scoring Systems. The Early Warning Scoring System was introduced, and has been implemented internationally, to aid in the identification of the patient whose condition is deteriorating. Early identification of patient deterioration is of vital importance for patient safety. Therefore how we teach this skill to students and how they become competent and confident in its utilisation, interpretation and subsequent clinical decision-making is crucial. The paper initially explores the competence of student nurses in this area. The discussion then focuses on three models of clinical decision making to illustrate why the introduction of Early Warning Scoring Systems has hindered student nurses in the development of the decision-making skills required to identify and manage the patient whose condition is deteriorating. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cetiner, Sacit M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Muhlheim, Michael David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Flanagan, George F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fugate, David L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kisner, Roger A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
This technical report was generated as a product of the Supervisory Control for Multi-Modular Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Plants project within the Instrumentation, Control and Human-Machine Interface technology area under the Advanced Small Modular Reactor (AdvSMR) Research and Development Program of the US Department of Energy. The report documents the definition of strategies, functional elements, and the structural architecture of a supervisory control system for multi-modular AdvSMR plants. This research activity advances the state of the art by incorporating real-time, probabilistic-based decision-making into the supervisory control system architectural layers through the introduction of a tiered-plant system approach. The report provides background information on the state of the art of automated decision-making, including the description of existing methodologies. It then presents a description of a generalized decision-making framework, upon which the supervisory control decision-making algorithm is based. The probabilistic portion of automated decision-making is demonstrated through a simple hydraulic loop example.
Full Text Available Due to the complex parameters of a solar power system, the designer not only must think about the load demand but also needs to consider the price, weight, and annual power generating capacity (APGC and maximum power of the solar system. It is an important task to find the optimal solar power system with many parameters. Therefore, this paper presents a novel decision-making method based on the extension theory; we call it extension decision-making method (EDMM. Using the EDMM can make it quick to select the optimal solar power system. The paper proposed this method not only to provide a useful estimated tool for the solar system engineers but also to supply the important reference with the installation of solar systems to the consumer.
Information system (IS) project selection is of critical importance to every organization in dynamic competing environment. The aim of this paper is to develop a hybrid multicriteria group decision making approach based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory for IS project selection. The decision makers’ assessment information can be expressed in the form of real numbers, interval-valued numbers, linguistic variables, and intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs). All these evaluation pieces of information...
D. P. Oleynikov
Full Text Available Purpose. The problem qualitative assessment of technologies and innovations, which cannot be solved without modern methods and decision support systems, is currently particularly relevant. The reason for this is the increasingly increasing amount of heterogeneous information, which should take into account the decision maker. Reduction of the allowable period of decision-making also has a signifi cant impact on this process. These reasons are refl ected in the problems of network-centric warfare, nuclear management, forecasting, and conceptual design. It actualizes the problem of the synthesis of new methods of decision-making that will effectively solve the problem of choice of alternatives in those problem areas where the application of existing methods of decision-making is unfounded or inadmissible. The complexity of the process of creation of new decision-making methods caused by the high degree of utilization of cognitive processes. In accordance with the system-wide development trends the designer in the process of synthesis of the decision-makings should take a system (or group of systems which implements certain cognitive operations. The first step towards the creation of such a group of systems is the development of methodology of the system synthesis of decision-makings.Materials and methods. The scope of research are approaches to the synthesis of systems, and in particular – the synthesis of decision-makings. On the basis of multidimensional analysis and generalization of approach the methodology was developed, which consists of the main stages - goal setting, goal achievement and variations of the target system. Within each of the stages a wide variation of operations is possible to be used, which applied depending on the available data, obtained from the analysis of the subject area. With the use of the methodology obtained a number ofdecision-making methods, and their creation was carried out without
Full Text Available Abstract Where unethical business decision-making arises from failures of ethical perception, there is an important role for ethical training and decision-making tools. These may help business people to consider all relevant issues when assessing the ethical status of potential decisions. Ethical training programmes give business people a basic understanding of the principles which underlie ethical judgements and equip them with many of the necessary skills for dealing with the ethical dilemmas which they face in their jobs. Similarly, ethical decision-making tools may guide managers through the various ethical considerations which are relevant to business decision-making and help them to develop their ethical-perceptual skills. Furthermore, by establishing and reinforcing good ethical decision-making practices, training programmes and decision-making tools may also reduce the incidence of self-consciously unethical decision-making. A new approach to improving the ethical quality of business decision-making by the use of computerized business ethics expert systems is proposed. These systems have the potential to guide business people through a process of ethical evaluation while simultaneously fulfilling an educational role, thus providing many of the benefits of both training programmes and decision-making tools. While the prospect of a computer system which could simply make ethical judgements for business people is both unrealistic and undesirable, a system which leads human decision-makers through a structured assessment process has the potential for genuine benefits. Keywords: Expert Systems, Ethical Decision Making
Full Text Available Decision-making is defined as a selection of a certain actionamong several alternatives. It is the essence of planning, asin the managerial sense there is no plan until a decision of engagementof resources, reputation and direction of activities ismade. Decision-making is, in fact, only a step in planning, evenwhen it is performed quickly and without special consideration.It is what we all experience every day. It is one of the most fascinatingbiological activities and the subject of frightening implicationsfor the whole human race. Since various techniques improvethe system and the quality of managerial decision-making,they are classified into three assumptions: risk analysis, decision-making trees, and the theory of revealed preference. Allof these are based on the interaction of a certain number of importantvariables out of which many contain the elements ofuncertainty, but maybe also high level of probability.
Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de
The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)
Schinagl, S.; Paans, R.
A major problem in the decision-making process is poor communication regarding threats and risks between information security experts and decision makers. By their nature, experts have a strong interest in operational details and limited insight into the purpose of the organization as they may not
V. V. Serbin
Full Text Available Subject of Research. Decision-making model is offered for informational and educational systems. The study of multi-criteria model is carried out taking into account knowledge, reaction and doubt. Method. The model of material proficiency by the user is based on identification of the personal characteristics when operating with the system. As a result of personal characteristics tracking in the system, an image is formed for each user that can be used for identifying his state: knowledge level, proportion of error, handwriting information, etc. During registration the user is passing an input test. Multi-criteria test results are automatically stored in the user's personal database (agent matrix and accounted for psychological comfort, formation of the next system content, management of knowledge levels, decision-making when working with the system. The proposed method gives a more clear and "transparent situational picture" for objective decision-making. Main Results. Implementation of multi-criteria decision-making model contributes to the quality of distance education. Also, the method makes it possible to reduce the probability of guessing the correct answer, thus increases the objectivity of knowledge level evaluation in diagnostic systems for management of learning process based on remote technologies. Practical Relevance. Obtained theoretical results of the work are used in training systems on the basis of multi-criteria decision models. Thus, the proposed model leads to an increase in the average score of about 0.3-0.4 points and reduces the training time in 1.5 to 2.0 times.
Tunstel, Edward; Jamshidi, Mo
Intelligent control of complex multi-variable systems can be a challenge for single fuzzy rule-based controllers. This class of problems cam often be managed with less difficulty by distributing intelligent decision-making amongst a collection of rule-bases. Such an approach requires that a mechanism be chosen to ensure goal-oriented interaction between the multiple rule-bases. In this paper, a hierarchical rule-based approach is described. Decision-making mechanisms based on generalized concepts from single-rule-based fuzzy control are described. Finally, the effects of different aggregation operators on multi-rule-base decision-making are examined in a navigation control problem for mobile robots.
Maite Sara Mashego
Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...
Kumar, P.; Bauer, P.
This work focuses on a design methodology that aids in design and development of complex engineering systems. This design methodology consists of simulation, optimization and decision making. Within this work a framework is presented in which modelling, multi-objective optimization and multi
Jacobs, Patricia A.
This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...
Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri
Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in
Douglas A Ruff
Full Text Available Perceptual decision making is a multi-stage process where incoming sensory information is used to select one option from several alternatives. Researchers typically have adopted one of two conceptual frameworks to define the criteria for determining whether a brain region is involved in decision computations. One framework, building on single unite recordings in monkeys, posits that activity in a region involved in decision making reflects the accumulation of evidence toward a decision threshold, thus showing the lowest level of BOLD signal during the hardest decisions. The other framework instead posits that activity in a decision-making region reflects the difficulty of a decision, thus showing the highest level of BOLD signal during the hardest decisions. We had subjects perform a face detection task on degraded face images while we simultaneously recorded BOLD activity. We searched for brain regions where changes in BOLD activity during this task supported either of these frameworks by calculating the correlation of BOLD activity with reaction time - a measure of task difficulty. We found that the right supplementary eye field, right frontal eye field and right inferior frontal gyrus had increased activity relative to baseline that positively correlated with reaction time, while the left superior frontal sulcus and left middle temporal gyrus had decreased activity relative to baseline that negatively correlated with reaction time. We propose that a simple mechanism that scales a region’s activity based on task demands can explain our results.
Lauesen, Linne Marie
by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses......Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities...... of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...
HENDRIKS, M. M. W. B.; de Boer, J. H.; Smilde, A. K.; Doornbos, D. A.
Interest is growing in multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques and a large number of these techniques are now available. The purpose of this tutorial is to give a theoretical description of some of the MCDM techniques. Besides this we will give an overview of the differences and similarities
THE NEEDS OF HYBRID SYSTEMS CONFIGURATION FOR REAL – TIME DECISION – MAKING PROCESS IN SURGERY G. Tritto Department of Urology, Division of...suggest the need to use real-time hybrid system dedicated to.( The first level of intervention of real-time hybrid systems). The needs to obtain...linked to the degree of Report Documentation Page Report Date 25OCT2001 Report Type N/A Dates Covered (from... to) - Title and Subtitle The Needs of
AlHaqwi, Ali I.; AlDrees, Turki M.; AlRumayyan, Ahmad; AlFarhan, Ali I.; Alotaibi, Sultan S.; AlKhashan, Hesham I.; Badri, Motasim
Objectives: To determine preferences of patients regarding their involvement in the clinical decision making process and the related factors in Saudi Arabia. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in a major family practice center in King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between March and May 2012. Multivariate multinomial regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with patients preferences. Results: The study included 236 participants. The most preferred decision-making style was shared decision-making (57%), followed by paternalistic (28%), and informed consumerism (14%). The preference for shared clinical decision making was significantly higher among male patients and those with higher level of education, whereas paternalism was significantly higher among older patients and those with chronic health conditions, and consumerism was significantly higher in younger age groups. In multivariate multinomial regression analysis, compared with the shared group, the consumerism group were more likely to be female [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) =2.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-6.27, p=0.008] and non-dyslipidemic (AOR=2.90, 95% CI: 1.03-8.09, p=0.04), and the paternalism group were more likely to be older (AOR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, p=0.04), and female (AOR=2.47, 95% CI: 1.32-4.06, p=0.008). Conclusion: Preferences of patients for involvement in the clinical decision-making varied considerably. In our setting, underlying factors that influence these preferences identified in this study should be considered and tailored individually to achieve optimal treatment outcomes. PMID:26620990
Monitoring and decision-making together are very well characterizing the role of the human operator in highly automated systems. In this report, the analysis of human monitoring and decision-making behavior as well as its modeling are described. The goal is to present a survey. 'Classic' and optimal control theoretic monitoring models are dealt with. The relationship between attention allocation and eye movements is discussed. As an example for applications, the evaluation of predictor displays by means of the optimal control model is explained. Fault detection in continuous signals and decision-making behavior of the human operator in fault diagnosis during different operation and maintenance situations are illustrated. The computer-aided decision-making is considered as a queueing problem. It is shown to what extent computer-aiding may be based on the state of human activity as measured by psychophysiological quantities. Finally, management information systems for different application areas are mentioned. As an appendix, the report includes an English-written paper in which the possibilities of mathematical modeling of human behavior in complex man-machine systems are critically assessed. (orig.) 891 GL/orig. 892 MKO [de
Sankararaman, Shankar; Teubert, Christopher
This paper investigates propsective architectures for decision-making in unmanned aerial systems. When these unmanned vehicles operate in urban environments, there are several sources of uncertainty that affect their behavior, and decision-making algorithms need to be robust to account for these different sources of uncertainty. It is important to account for several risk-factors that affect the flight of these unmanned systems, and facilitate decision-making by taking into consideration these various risk-factors. In addition, there are several technical challenges related to autonomous flight of unmanned aerial systems; these challenges include sensing, obstacle detection, path planning and navigation, trajectory generation and selection, etc. Many of these activities require significant computational power and in many situations, all of these activities need to be performed in real-time. In order to efficiently integrate these activities, it is important to develop a systematic architecture that can facilitate real-time decision-making. Four prospective architectures are discussed in this paper; on one end of the spectrum, the first architecture considers all activities/computations being performed onboard the vehicle whereas on the other end of the spectrum, the fourth and final architecture considers all activities/computations being performed in the cloud, using a new service known as Prognostics as a Service that is being developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The four different architectures are compared, their advantages and disadvantages are explained and conclusions are presented.
Full Text Available Suitable selection of the emergency alternatives is a critical issue in emergency response system of Unattended Train Operation (UTO metro system of China. However, there is no available method for dispatcher group in Operating Control Center (OCC to evaluate the decision under emergency situation. It was found that the emergency decision making in UTO metro system is relative with the preferences and the importance of multi-dispatcher in emergency. Regarding these factors, this paper presents a hybrid method to determinate the priority weights of emergency alternatives, which aggregates the preference matrix by constructing the emergency response task model based on the Weighted Ordered Weighted Averaging (WOWA operator. This calculation approach derives the importance weights depending on the dispatcher emergency tasks and integrates it into the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA operator weights based on a fuzzy membership relation. A case from train fire is given to demonstrate the feasibility and practicability of the proposed methods for Group Multi-Criteria Decision Making (GMCDM in emergency management of UTO metro system. The innovation of this research is paving the way for a systematic emergency decision-making solution which connects the automatic metro emergency response system with the GMCDM theory.
Full Text Available Information system (IS project selection is of critical importance to every organization in dynamic competing environment. The aim of this paper is to develop a hybrid multicriteria group decision making approach based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory for IS project selection. The decision makers’ assessment information can be expressed in the form of real numbers, interval-valued numbers, linguistic variables, and intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs. All these evaluation pieces of information can be transformed to the form of IFNs. Intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging (IFWA operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers into a group opinion. Intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to obtain the entropy weights of the criteria. TOPSIS method combined with intuitionistic fuzzy set is proposed to select appropriate IS project in group decision making environment. Finally, a numerical example for information system projects selection is given to illustrate application of hybrid multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM method based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory and TOPSIS method.
Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh
Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.
Matthew P. Thompson
The management of wildfire is a dynamic, complex, and fundamentally uncertain enterprise. Fire managers face uncertainties regarding fire weather and subsequent influence on fire behavior, the effects of fire on socioeconomic and ecological resources, and the efficacy of alternative suppression actions on fire outcomes. In these types of difficult decision environments...
Chen Dengke; Zhang Dafa; Jiang Wei; Chen Yonghong
Emergency decision-making to Marine Pressurized-Water Reactor (MPWR) was severely restricted by the complex environment. To enhance the emergency decision-making ability of MPWR, reducing the effect of emergencies, an emergency Decision-making Support System (DSS) which based on Multi-agent System (MAS) was presented. In the system, the HLA/RTI was used as the support environment, and the structure and the Control Agent (SCA), Analyse Agent (AA), Countermeasure Agent (CA), Evaluation Agent (EVA) and Environment Agent (ENA) were designed. The MAS were with the characteristics of autonomy, reactivity and initiative, which were fully used in the system to make effective decision for emergencies. (authors)
Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P
The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.
Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.
Ronald E. McRoberts; R. James Barbour; Krista M. Gebert; Greg C. Liknes; Mark D. Nelson; Dacia M. Meneguzzo; et al.
Sustainable management of natural resources requires informed decision making and post-decision assessments of the results of those decisions. Increasingly, both activities rely on analyses of spatial data in the forms of maps and digital data layers. Fortunately, a variety of supporting maps and data layers rapidly are becoming available. Unfortunately, however, user-...
Jamaseb, Mehdi; Jafari, Shahram; Montaseri, Farshid; Dadgar, Masoud
The main issue that is investigated in this paper, is a method for decision making of mobile robots in different conditions for this purpose, we have used expert system. In this way, that the conditions of the robot are analyzed by on expert person a special issue (like following a ball) using knowledge base and suitable decisions will be mode. Then, using this information fuzzy rules well be built, and using its rules, robots decisions can be implemented like an expert person. In this study, we have used delta3d base for implementing expert systems and CLIPS and also we have used NAO for simulation rcssserver3d robot and 3d football simulation have been used for implementing operation program
Georgiou, Polymnia; Zanos, Panos; Bhat, Shambhu; Tracy, J Kathleen; Merchenthaler, Istvan J; McCarthy, Margaret M; Gould, Todd D
Maladaptive decision making is associated with several neuropsychiatric disorders, including problem gambling and suicidal behavior. The prevalence of these disorders is higher in men vs women, suggesting gender-dependent regulation of their pathophysiology underpinnings. We assessed sex differences in decision making using the rat version of the Iowa gambling task. Female rats identified the most optimal choice from session 1, whereas male rats from session 5. Male, but not female rats, progressively improved their advantageous option responding and surpassed females. Estrus cycle phase did not affect decision making. To test whether pharmacological manipulations targeting the dopaminergic and stress systems affect decision making in a sex-dependent manner, male and female rats received injections of a dopamine D 2 receptor (D 2 R) antagonist (eticlopride), D 2 R agonist (quinpirole), corticotropin-releasing factor 1 (CRF 1 ) antagonist (antalarmin), and α 2 -adrenergic receptor antagonist (yohimbine; used as a pharmacological stressor). Alterations in mRNA levels of D 2 R and CRF 1 were also assessed. Eticlopride decreased advantageous responding in male, but not female rats, whereas quinpirole decreased advantageous responding specifically in females. Yohimbine dose-dependently decreased advantageous responding in female rats, whereas decreased advantageous responding was only observed at higher doses in males. Antalarmin increased optimal choice responding only in female rats. Higher Drd2 and Crhr1 expression in the amygdala were observed in female vs male rats. Higher amygdalar Crhr1 expression was negatively correlated with advantageous responding specifically in females. This study demonstrates the relevance of dopaminergic- and stress-dependent sex differences to maladaptive decision making.
Full Text Available A Supply Chain Execution and Management (SCEM system is an enterprise application that integrates all of the necessary supply chain functions into a single system. These functions range from common ones such as warehouse and transportation management to less known ones such as demand management. In order to execute and manage the supply chain processes successfully, organisations need a comprehensive evaluation approach to determine the most suitable system. The evaluation of an SCEM system involves numerous decision making criteria. Moreover, it is usually characterised with uncertainty and vagueness since it is very difficult to rate SCEM system alternatives with exact terms. To cope with this problem, a fuzzy logic-based approach is developed in this study. This approach main integrates the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process to weight the decision criteria and the Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution to rate alternatives. A real life example is provided to demonstrate the capability of the proposed approach.
B. Wierenga (Berend)
textabstractWhile a whole range of factors influences the outcomes of a marketing policy, it is managerial decision-making that can really make a difference. A clearer understanding of how marketers make decisions should therefore improve their quality.
Lauesen, Linne Marie
Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities of the inter......Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities...... of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...
Gomez, Jorge; Garrido, Leonardo; Perez, Francisco
Intelligent Decision-Making Support Systems (i-DMSS) are specialized IT-based systems that support some or several phases of the individual, team, organizational or inter-organizational decision making process by deploying some or several intelligent mechanisms. This book pursues the following academic aims: (i) generate a compendium of quality theoretical and applied contributions in Intelligent Decision-Making Support Systems (i-DMSS) for engineering and management IT-based service systems (ITSS); (ii) diffuse scarce knowledge about foundations, architectures and effective and efficient methods and strategies for successfully planning, designing, building, operating, and evaluating i-DMSS for ITSS, and (iii) create an awareness of, and a bridge between ITSS and i-DMSS academicians and practitioners in the current complex and dynamic engineering and management ITSS organizational. The book presents a collection of 11 chapters referring to relevant topics for both IT service systems and i-DMSS including: pr...
Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H
Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit
Aldashev, Gani; Kirchsteiger, Georg; Sebald, Alexander Christopher
It is a persistent finding in psychology and experimental economics that people's behavior is not only shaped by outcomes but also by decision-making procedures. In this paper we develop a general framework capable of modelling these procedural concerns. Within the context of psychological games we...... define procedures as mechanisms that influence the probabilities of reaching different endnodes. We show that for such procedural games a sequential psychological equilibrium always exists. Applying this approach within a principal-agent context we show that the way less attractive jobs are allocated...
Nur Ilyana Mohd Zukki
Full Text Available Tropical forests are a repository of biodiversity which provides habitats for more than 50% of the earth’s plant and animal species, an important sink for carbon stores which provides many goods and ecosystem services and a critical contributor to livelihoods, mainly of the indigenous groups which are totally dependent on forests. Yet, forests are under pressure. Tropical forests are among the earth’s most threatened ecosystems, particularly threatened by human activities and climate change. Consequently, tropical forests are loosing capacity to provide basic goods and services that are essentials to human livelihood. Hence, every decision involving forest utilization should consider various criteria that are important for sustainable forest management. However, making decision about forest resources management often involves balancing conflicting, inadequate and incompatible values of many users and usage of a resource. One of the most fundamental and difficult task is the effective integration of environmental, economic and social values to achieve and maintain ecologically sustainable development. Therefore, an integrated technology such as an Analytical Hierarchy Process and expert systems is essential to be performed in making decision process for forest resources management because an AHP method is capable to capture both tangible and intangible criteria. This study places emphasis on the development of expert system for forest resources management to assist decision makers to select the best forest resources use based on Malaysian Criteria and Indicators [(MC&I2002].
Maite Sara Mashego
Full Text Available Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This article explored the models, roles, tools and methods of consensus decision making. The results were that consensus decision making brings people together and cements the relationship among employees. The lone ranger’s decision is only consented to by staff but inwardly disagreeable resulting in short term benefits but long term collapse of organizations.
Kitamura, Masaharu; Yoshikawa, Shinji; Hasegawa, Makoto
A series of technical surveys and studies are described in this report to examine and identify technical requirements to be posed on knowledge base and instrumentation system as the fundamental in high reliability computational decision making in operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants. Monitoring and diagnosis are focused as the important tasks among the operation/maintenance-related tasks. A concrete monitoring and diagnosis system configuration has been proposed consisting of distributed symptom database and of on-demand measurement subsystem. An prototype of the proposed system configuration has been successfully verified. (author)
Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang
As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.
Full Text Available This article presents the evaluation and optimization algorithm of the building energy system. Two main objectives have been achieved: the optimal configuration of the building energy system has been defined, which minimizes the use of non-renewable sources and reduces the environmental impact of the building. Energy demand for the house has been simulated employing DesignBuilder software. Five configurations of technologies for the building energy system have been chosen and simulated applying Polysun software in order to define the seasonal energy efficiency of the generators of each configuration. Multi-criteria decision making methods SAW (Simple Additive Weight, COPRAS (COmplex PRoportion ASsessment and MEW (Multiplicative Exponential Weighting have been used for finding the optimal decision on this case study.Article in Lithuanian
Won, Henry Thome
General aviation has long been studied as a means of providing an on-demand "personal air vehicle" that bypasses the traffic at major commercial hubs. This thesis continues this research through development of a system of systems modeling methodology applicable to the selection of synergistic product concepts, market segments, and business models. From the perspective of the conceptual design engineer, the design and selection of future general aviation aircraft is complicated by the definition of constraints and requirements, and the tradeoffs among performance and cost aspects. Qualitative problem definition methods have been utilized, although their accuracy in determining specific requirement and metric values is uncertain. In industry, customers are surveyed, and business plans are created through a lengthy, iterative process. In recent years, techniques have developed for predicting the characteristics of US travel demand based on travel mode attributes, such as door-to-door time and ticket price. As of yet, these models treat the contributing systems---aircraft manufacturers and service providers---as independently variable assumptions. In this research, a methodology is developed which seeks to build a strategic design decision making environment through the construction of a system of systems model. The demonstrated implementation brings together models of the aircraft and manufacturer, the service provider, and most importantly the travel demand. Thus represented is the behavior of the consumers and the reactive behavior of the suppliers---the manufacturers and transportation service providers---in a common modeling framework. The results indicate an ability to guide the design process---specifically the selection of design requirements---through the optimization of "capability" metrics. Additionally, results indicate the ability to find synergetic solutions, that is solutions in which two systems might collaborate to achieve a better result than acting
Hecher, Maria; Hatzl, Stefanie; Knoeri, Christof; Posch, Alfred
As heat demand of buildings accounts for a significant amount of final energy use and related carbon emissions, it’s important to gain insights into the homeowners’ decision-making processes and to identify factors determining the choice of heating systems. In this study, data was collected in an online survey carried out in 2015, from private homeowners of existing and newly built single and double-family houses in Austria who had invested in a new heating system within the last ten years (N=484). In contrast to previous studies, this study specifically investigates the triggers behind homeowner decisions to invest in a new heating system (e.g. problem, opportunity, or new building situation). Results of binary logistic regression analysis show that subsidies for heating system tabinvestments and infrastructural adjustments reveal to be most effective for homeowners in problem situations to foster alternative heating systems. For homeowners in opportunity situations (e.g. building refurbishment), in addition operational convenience appears to be important. For new buildings, the main barriers for alternative heating system adoption were found in the positive perception of fuel supply security and feasibility of fossil systems. Thus, the use of trigger-specific policy measures is proposed to foster alternative heating systems in the residential building sector. - Highlights: • Homeowners’ triggers determine heating system adoption decisions. • It is crucial to reach homeowners early enough to avoid problem situations. • For problem-triggered homeowners, subsidies are most effective. • Opportunity-triggered homeowners prefer alternative heating systems. • Opportunity-triggered homeowners need solid decision basis for technology comparison.
Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman
In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...
Bearman, Chris; Miller, Ronald c.; Orasanu, Judith M.
Introduction: NextGen technologies promise to provide considerable benefits in terms of enhancing operations and improving safety. However, there needs to be a thorough human factors evaluation of the way these systems will change the way in which pilot and controllers share information. The likely impact of these new technologies on pilot/controller coordinated decision making is considered in this paper using the "operational, informational and evaluative disconnect" framework. Method: Five participant focus groups were held. Participants were four experts in human factors, between x and x research students and a technical expert. The participant focus group evaluated five key NextGen technologies to identify issues that made different disconnects more or less likely. Results: Issues that were identified were: Decision Making will not necessarily improve because pilots and controllers possess the same information; Having a common information source does not mean pilots and controllers are looking at the same information; High levels of automation may lead to disconnects between the technology and pilots/controllers; Common information sources may become the definitive source for information; Overconfidence in the automation may lead to situations where appropriate breakdowns are not initiated. Discussion: The issues that were identified lead to recommendations that need to be considered in the development of NextGen technologies. The current state of development of these technologies provides a good opportunity to utilize recommendations at an early stage so that NextGen technologies do not lead to difficulties in resolving breakdowns in coordinated decision making.
Meirina, Candra; Ruan, Sui; Yu, Feili; Zhu, Liang; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L
...) based on the third-generation distributed dynamic decision-making (DDD-III) simulator and contingency theory to increase the organizational cognitive capacity and to facilitate the processes of adaptation...
Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness of its definition, and claim that single-process accounts can explain the data just as well. My aim is to elucidate the cognitive processes that underlie decisions which involve some level of risk through the experimental manipulation of time pressure. Using this method, I hope to distinguish between competing hypotheses related to the origin of the effect. I will explore three types of decisions that illustrate these concepts: risky decision-making involving gambles, intertemporal choice, and one-shot public goods games involving social cooperation. In our experiments, participants made decisions about gambles framed as either gains or losses; decided upon intertemporal choices for smaller but sooner rewards or larger but later rewards; and played a one-shot public goods game involving social cooperation and contributing an amount of money to a group. In each case, we experimentally manipulated time pressure, either within subjects or among individuals. Results showed under time pressure, increased framing effects under in both hypothetical and incentivized choices; and greater contributions and cooperation among individuals, lending support to the dual process hypothesis that these effects arise from a fast, intuitive system. However, our intertemporal choice experiment showed that time constraints led to increased selection of the larger but later options, which suggests that the magnitude of the reward may play larger role in choice selection under cognitive load than
De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R.; Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D.
This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)
Flight crews must make decisions and take action when systems fail or emergencies arise during flight. These situations may involve high stress. Full-missiion flight simulation studies have shown that crews differ in how effectively they cope in these circumstances, judged by operational errors and crew coordination. The present study analyzed the problem solving and decision making strategies used by crews led by captains fitting three different personality profiles. Our goal was to identify more and less effective strategies that could serve as the basis for crew selection or training. Methods: Twelve 3-member B-727 crews flew a 5-leg mission simulated flight over 1 1/2 days. Two legs included 4 abnormal events that required decisions during high workload periods. Transcripts of videotapes were analyzed to describe decision making strategies. Crew performance (errors and coordination) was judged on-line and from videotapes by check airmen. Results: Based on a median split of crew performance errors, analyses to date indicate a difference in general strategy between crews who make more or less errors. Higher performance crews showed greater situational awareness - they responded quickly to cues and interpreted them appropriately. They requested more decision relevant information and took into account more constraints. Lower performing crews showed poorer situational awareness, planning, constraint sensitivity, and coordination. The major difference between higher and lower performing crews was that poorer crews made quick decisions and then collected information to confirm their decision. Conclusion: Differences in overall crew performance were associated with differences in situational awareness, information management, and decision strategy. Captain personality profiles were associated with these differences, a finding with implications for crew selection and training.
Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.
The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)
Sokolova, Marina V
The study of complex systems attracts the attention of many researchers in diverse fields. Complex systems are characterized by a high number of entities and a high degree of interactions. One of the most important features is that they do not involve a central organizing authority, but the various elements that make up the systems are self-organized. Moreover, some complex systems possess an emergency priority: climate change and sustainable development research, studies of public health, ecosystem habitats, epidemiology, and medicine, among others. Unfortunately, a great number of today’s overlapping approaches fail to meet the needs of decision makers when managing complex domains. Indeed, the design of complex systems often requires the integration of a number of artificial intelligence tools and techniques. The problem can be viewed in terms of goals, states, and actions, choosing the best action to move the system toward its desired state or behavior. This is why agent-based approaches are used to mod...
Tagai, Erin K; Miller, Suzanne M; Kutikov, Alexander; Diefenbach, Michael A; Gor, Ronak A; Al-Saleem, Tahseen; Chen, David Y T; Fleszar, Sara; Roy, Gem
The Gleason scoring system is a key component of a prostate cancer diagnosis, since it indicates disease aggressiveness. It also serves as a risk communication tool that facilitates shared treatment decision-making. However, the system is highly complex and therefore difficult to communicate: factors which have been shown to undermine well-informed and high-quality shared treatment decision-making. To systematically explore prostate cancer patients' understanding of the Gleason scoring system (GSS), we assessed knowledge and perceived importance among men who had completed treatment (N = 50). Patients were administered a survey that assessed patient knowledge and patients' perceived importance of the GSS, as well as demographics, medical factors (e.g., Gleason score at diagnosis), and health literacy. Bivariate analyses were conducted to identify associations with patient knowledge and perceived importance of the GSS. The sample was generally well-educated (48% with a bachelor's degree or higher) and health literate (M = 12.9, SD = 2.2, range = 3-15). Despite this, patient knowledge of the GSS was low (M = 1.8, SD = 1.4, range = 1-4). Patients' understanding of the importance of the GSS was moderate (M = 2.8, SD = 1.0, range = 0-4) and was positively associated with GSS knowledge (p importance of the GSS (p communication to maximize shared treatment decision-making. Future studies are needed to explore the potential utility of a simplified Gleason grading system and improved patient-provider communication.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) observing system enterprise represents a $2.4B annual investment. Earth observations from these systems are foundational to NOAA's mission to describe, understand, and predict the Earth's environment. NOAA's decision makers are charged with managing this complex portfolio of observing systems to serve the national interest effectively and efficiently. The Technology Planning & Integration for Observation (TPIO) Office currently maintains an observing system portfolio for NOAA's validated user observation requirements, observing capabilities, and resulting data products and services. TPIO performs data analytics to provide NOAA leadership business case recommendations for making sound budgetary decisions. Over the last year, TPIO has moved from massive spreadsheets to intuitive dashboards that enable Federal agencies as well as the general public the ability to explore user observation requirements and environmental observing systems that monitor and predict changes in the environment. This change has led to an organizational data management shift to analytics and visualizations by allowing analysts more time to focus on understanding the data, discovering insights, and effectively communicating the information to decision makers. Moving forward, the next step is to facilitate a cultural change toward self-serve data sharing across NOAA, other Federal agencies, and the public using intuitive data visualizations that answer relevant business questions for users of NOAA's Observing System Enterprise. Users and producers of environmental data will become aware of the need for enhancing communication to simplify information exchange to achieve multipurpose goals across a variety of disciplines. NOAA cannot achieve its goal of producing environmental intelligence without data that can be shared by multiple user communities. This presentation will describe where we are on this journey and will provide examples of
Wang, Mingming; Sweetapple, Chris; Fu, Guangtao; Farmani, Raziyeh; Butler, David
This paper presents a new framework for decision making in sustainable drainage system (SuDS) scheme design. It integrates resilience, hydraulic performance, pollution control, rainwater usage, energy analysis, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs, and has 12 indicators. The multi-criteria analysis methods of entropy weight and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) were selected to support SuDS scheme selection. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated with a SuDS case in China. Indicators used include flood volume, flood duration, a hydraulic performance indicator, cost and resilience. Resilience is an important design consideration, and it supports scheme selection in the case study. The proposed framework will help a decision maker to choose an appropriate design scheme for implementation without subjectivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Huang, Qiong; Xue, G. H.; Ni, X. Q.
This paper studies a fast assistant decision-making system on the emergent maneuver of the tracking ship, adopting the design method of the emergent working state of the tracking ship based on the meteorological prediction, the virtual display technology based on the multi-stage mapping, and the 2-dimension area algorithm based on the line-scanning. It solves problems that the tracking ship met during working, such as the long TT&C time, the dense crucial observation arc, the complicated working flow, and the changeful scheme. It established the hard basement for the fast design of the emergency working state when the tracking ship in the awful sea conditions.
Shaiful Ridwan Radzi, Mohd
Flooding is a significant issue in low-lying parts of the catchment in Malaysia, leading to flood damage & disruption in major storm events. Recognising the potential to reduce damage, the decision making support system (DMSS) has been developed to optimise the operation of the water resources assets to both maximise the effectiveness of flood control & maximize the availability of water for public supply & irrigation demand under drought conditions. DMSS functions as to reduce human error during critical times. The tools optimized rules for barrage, sluice gates, pumping station & dams. Its provide priority for flood zone protection & fuzzy logic supervisory control for all equipment.
Lee, T S; Ghosh, S
Asynchronous distributed decision-making (ADDM) systems constitute a special class of distributed problems and are characterized as large, complex systems wherein the principal elements are the geographically dispersed entities that communicate among themselves, asynchronously, through message passing and are permitted autonomy in local decision making. Such systems generally offer significant advantages over the traditional, centralized algorithms in the form of concurrency, scalability, high throughput, efficiency, low vulnerability to catastrophic failures, and robustness. A fundamental property of ADDM systems is stability that refers to their behavior under representative perturbations to their operating environments, given that such systems are intended to be real, complex, and to some extent, mission-critical, and are subject to unexpected changes in their operating conditions. This paper introduces the concept of stability in ADDM systems and proposes an intuitive yet practical and usable definition that is inspired by those used in control systems and physics. An ADDM system is defined as a stable system if it returns to a steady state in finite time, following perturbation, provided that it is initiated in a steady state. Equilibrium or steady state is defined through placing bounds on the measured error in the system. Where the final steady state is equivalent to the initial one, a system is referred to as strongly stable. If the final steady state is potentially worse then the initial one, a system is deemed marginally stable. When a system fails to return to steady state following the perturbation, it is unstable. The perturbations are classified as either changes in the input pattern or changes in one or more environmental characteristics of the system, such as hardware failures. For a given ADDM system, the definitions are based on the performance indices that must be judiciously identified by the system architect and are likely to be unique. To
Full Text Available An open, standardized data management and related service infrastructure is a crucial requirement for a seamless storage and exchange of data and information within research projects, for the dissemination of project results and for their application in decision making processes. However, typical project databases often refer to only one research project and are limited to specific purposes. Once implemented, those systems are often not further maintained and updated, rendering the stored information useless once the system stops operating. The River Basin Information System (RBIS presented here is designed to fit not only the requirements of one research project, but focuses on generic functions, extensibility and standards compliance typically found in interdisciplinary environmental research. Developed throughout more than 10 years of research cooperation worldwide, RBIS is designed to manage different types of environmental data with and without spatial context together with a rich set of metadata. Beside data management and storage, RBIS provides functions for the visualization, linking, analysis and processing of different types of data to support research, decision making, result dissemination and information discovery for all kinds of users. The focus of this paper is on the description of the technical implementation and the presentation of functions. This will be complemented by an overview of example applications and experiences during RBIS development and operation.
Yih, Swu; Fan, Chin-Feng
Highlights: ► We have performed basic research in analyzing certification process and developed a regulatory decision making model for nuclear digital control system certification. The model views certification as an evidence–confidence conversion process. ► We have applied this model to analyze previous nuclear digital I and C certification experiences and obtained valuable insights. ► Furthermore, a prototype of a computer-aided licensing support system based on the model has been developed to enhance regulatory review efficiency. - Abstract: Safety-critical computing systems need regulators’ approval before operation. Such a permit issue process is called “certification”. Digital instrumentation and Control (I and C) certification in the nuclear domain has always been problematic and lengthy. Thus, the certification efficiency has always been a crucial concern to the applicant whose business depends on the regulatory decision. However, to our knowledge, there is little basic research on this topic. This study presents a Regulatory Decision-Making Model aiming at analyzing the characteristics and efficiency influence factors in a generic certification process. This model is developed from a dynamic operational perspective by viewing the certification process as an evidence–confidence conversion process. The proposed model is then applied to previous nuclear digital I and C certification experiences to successfully explain why some cases were successful and some were troublesome. Lessons learned from these cases provide invaluable insights regarding to the regulatory review activity. Furthermore, to utilize the insights obtained from the model, a prototype of a computer-aided licensing support system has been developed to speed up review evidence preparation and manipulation; thus, regulatory review efficiency can be further improved.
Faust, Oliver; Acharya, U Rajendra; Sputh, Bernhard H C; Tamura, Toshiyo
This paper describes the design of a fault-tolerant classification system for medical applications. The design process follows the systems engineering methodology: in the agreement phase, we make the case for fault tolerance in diagnosis systems for biomedical applications. The argument extends the idea that machine diagnosis systems mimic the functionality of human decision-making, but in many cases they do not achieve the fault tolerance of the human brain. After making the case for fault tolerance, both requirements and specification for the fault-tolerant system are introduced before the implementation is discussed. The system is tested with fault and use cases to build up trust in the implemented system. This structured approach aided in the realisation of the fault-tolerant classification system. During the specification phase, we produced a formal model that enabled us to discuss what fault tolerance, reliability and safety mean for this particular classification system. Furthermore, such a formal basis for discussion is extremely useful during the initial stages of the design, because it helps to avoid big mistakes caused by a lack of overview later on in the project. During the implementation, we practiced component reuse by incorporating a reliable classification block, which was developed during a previous project, into the current design. Using a well-structured approach and practicing component reuse we follow best practice for both research and industry projects, which enabled us to realise the fault-tolerant classification system on time and within budget. This system can serve in a wide range of future health care systems.
Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...
Hodgin, C Reed [Westminster, CO
A system and method for inputting, analyzing, and disseminating information necessary for identified decision-makers to respond to emergency situations. This system and method provides consistency and integration among multiple groups, and may be used for both initial consequence-based decisions and follow-on consequence-based decisions. The system and method in a preferred embodiment also provides tools for accessing and manipulating information that are appropriate for each decision-maker, in order to achieve more reasoned and timely consequence-based decisions. The invention includes processes for designing and implementing a system or method for responding to emergency situations.
Danilova, Olga; Semenova, Zinaida
The objective of this study is a detailed analysis of physical protection systems development for information resources. The optimization theory and decision-making mathematical apparatus is used to formulate correctly and create an algorithm of selection procedure for security systems optimal configuration considering the location of the secured object’s access point and zones. The result of this study is a software implementation scheme of decision-making system for optimal placement of the physical access control system’s elements.
Ekbia, Hamid R
.... In an effort to reconceptualize decision making, this paper follows a top-down approach, starting with a new conceptual framework and then exploring the technologies and tools that can support...
Rodriguez, Marko A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Watkins, Jennifer H [Los Alamos National Laboratory
The ideals of the eighteenth century's Age of Enlightenment are the foundation of modern democracies. The era was characterized by thinkers who promoted progressive social reforms that opposed the long-established aristocracies and monarchies of the time. Prominent examples of such reforms include the establishment of inalienable human rights, self-governing republics, and market capitalism. Twenty-first century democratic nations can benefit from revisiting the systems developed during the Enlightenment and reframing them within the techno-social context of the Information Age. This article explores the application of social algorithms that make use of Thomas Paine's (English: 1737--1809) representatives, Adam Smith's (Scottish: 1723--1790) self-interested actors, and Marquis de Condorcet's (French: 1743--1794) optimal decision making groups. It is posited that technology-enabled social algorithms can better realize the ideals articulated during the Enlightenment.
Nill, Alexander; Schibrowsky, John A.
An experiment was conducted to study how marketing students' ethical decision making was influenced by their perceived moral intensity (PMI), corporate culture, and the reward system. The findings indicate that levels of awareness of the ethical consequences of a decision, the corporate culture, and the reward system all significantly affect…
The analysis of the wind sites and the solar possibilities of Benin led the works towards the energy systems, of the autonomous photovoltaic type, coupled with batteries of storage. These appropriate energy systems were analyzed, modelled and optimized. The criteria of optimization arise from a survey realized in near the persons in charge who take care of questions of electrification in rural areas, of selected professionals who play a major role in the decision-making of the projects of electrification in rural areas, local associations which benefited from these projects in Benin, from technicians and from users of these systems. These criteria are organized into a hierarchy according to the method AMDEC. A method of adapted optimization was realized; she appeals to an original vision of levelheadedness. (author) [fr
Full Text Available Academically, the research of subject database of tax system aims to set up an efficient, harmonious virtual data application environment. Subject data, in application and management, has been on demand polymerized and autonomously collaborated and has reached a balance between instantaneity and accuracy. This paper defines the connotation and characteristics enterprise informationization, designs a value system of enterprise informationization which is subject database oriented, and builds a model for the import of the subject database of enterprise informationization. Meantime, this paper describes the structure of the subject database based information import model and forges the model’s theoretical basis of subject data import in tax system. Using the model can make an analysis on the information of data warehouse, storage information, and tax information to provide decision support for the tax administrators.
Kreifeldt, J. G.; Wempe, T. E.
Seven different human-centered alternatives for distributing traffic management responsibility between air and ground in the terminal area were simulated and evaluated at NASA-Ames Research Center in the man-machine integration branch. The alternatives differed in three divisions of decision-making responsibility ranging from completely ground-centered to completely air-centered and in the amount of information presented to the pilots via traffic situation displays (TSD). Objective, verbal and subjective measures of system performance, workloads, preferences, etc., were obtained. Based on the task and corresponding measures, the ground-centered (vectoring) alternative was the least favorable. Best overall performance was achieved and preferred with a moderate division of responsibility in which controllers issued sequence order only and pilots used a TSD with 30 sec path predictors on their own aircraft. Speculations on the use of the results in context of a ground-centralized system failure and for future ATC systems are presented.
Kafka, P.; Kunitz, H.
A comprehensive review of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) related program packages is made. Three fields in methodological succession are covered: plant modeling, data quantification procedures and decision-making support. Packages for fault tree construction and minimal cut sets evaluation are referred to and the performances of three of them: RALLY, ORCHARD and SALP-PC, are discussed and compared. Notions on the raw data sources are presented and the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR) is given as an example for data base management system generating PSA data. Aggregated risk models for support in safety assessment, plant operation and accident management (SARA, ESSM, PRISIM) are cited. Examples of systems supporting 'living PSA' (SAIS, SUPER-NET, LESSEPS 1300, NUPRA, SPSA) are given. The concluding remarks outline the state-of-the-art developments of computerized systems for reliability analyses. 1 fig., 1 tab., 51 refs. (R.Ts)
This book provides an overview of recent research developments in the automation and control of robotic systems that collaborate with humans. A measure of human collaboration being necessary for the optimal operation of any robotic system, the contributors exploit a broad selection of such systems to demonstrate the importance of the subject, particularly where the environment is prone to uncertainty or complexity. They show how such human strengths as high-level decision-making, flexibility, and dexterity can be combined with robotic precision, and ability to perform task repetitively or in a dangerous environment. The book focuses on quantitative methods and control design for guaranteed robot performance and balanced human experience. Its contributions develop and expand upon material presented at various international conferences. They are organized into three parts covering: one-human–one-robot collaboration; one-human–multiple-robot collaboration; and human–swarm collaboration. Individual topic ar...
Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Associacao de Medicina Intensiva Brasileira (AMIB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Irmandade da Santa Casa de Misericordia de Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Ferreira, Bruna Cortez [Hospital de Base de Sao Jose do Rio Preto, SP (Brazil)
The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw-Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. (author)
Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa; Ferreira, Bruna Cortez
The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw-Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. (author)
Luiz Henrique Costa Garcia
Full Text Available The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw- Hill Education; British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters; Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations.
Rasmussen, J.; Lind, M.
The paper describes a model of operators' decision making in complex system control, based on studies of event reports and performance in control rooms. This study shows how operators base their decisions on knowledge of system properties at different levels of abstraction depending on their preception of the system's immediate control requirements. These levels correspond to the abstraction hierarchy including system purpose, functions, and physical details, which is generally used to describe a formal design process. In emergency situations the task of the operator is to design a suitabel control strategy for systems recovery, and the control systems designer should provide a man-machine interface, supporting the operator in identification of his task and in communication with the system at the level of abstraction corresponding to the immedite control requirement. A formalized representation of system properties in a multilevel flow model is described to provide a basis for an integrated control system design. (author)
Adaptive traffic signal control technologies have been increasingly deployed in real world situations. The objective of this project was to develop a decision-making tool to guide traffic engineers and decision-makers who must decide whether or not a...
Full Text Available The authors are investigating whether Web-based Group Support System (GSS) tools can support and enhance procedural fairness in administrative decision making in South Africa. They report here on work that emanates from a masters dissertation...
Martín Alejandro Iribarnegaray
Full Text Available We explore the connections between the concepts of governance and sustainability and discuss their possible roles in water and sanitation management systems (WSMS. We see governance as a decision-making process that drives the relationship between social institutions and the public affairs of a given society. We understand sustainability as a combination of spatial, temporal, and personal aspects, and we argue that this definition is more comprehensive than the traditional triple bottom line of economy, environment, and society. We combined these two concepts into a new conceptual framework of “governance for sustainability” that is theoretically sound and arguably appropriate to understand local WSMS. To illustrate this framework, we developed and estimated a Sustainable Water Governance Index (SWGI for the city of Salta, Argentina. This aggregated index was calculated with data from literature, information from the city’s water company and other local institutions, field visits, and interviews. The SWGI for Salta obtained an overall score of 49 on a 0–100 scale, which fell into the “danger” range. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the method and conclude that aggregated indices such as the SWGI, complemented with contextual information, can be a helpful decision-making tool to promote more sustainable WSMS.
Polcher, Jan; Parker, Doug; Gaye, Amadou
The AMMA project (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) has now been running for 5 years. The project set out to better understand the geophysical processes in the atmosphere, in the oceans and on land surfaces which govern the evolution of the monsoon. At the same time we studied the control exerted by weather and climate on agronomic production, water resources and public health and the potential for populations to adapt. The objective is to provide the underpinning science needed to improve prediction and decision-support systems in West Africa. AMMA has been a joint effort of the West African and international research communities. This presentation will provide an overview of the achievements of the project over the last 5 years. The observation strategy will be presented and in particular the effort undertaken by AMMA to demonstrate the value of improved observing networks. The new and unique data sets collected have allowed us to gain new knowledge in areas as diverse as the atmospheric processes governing the evolution of the monsoon, the contrasting behaviors of catchments in the Guinean and Sahelian zones and the perception farmers have of the constraint climate imposes on their livelihood. The talk will show how this new knowledge has allowed the project to demonstrate the progress which can be made in prediction and decision-making system. The presentation will conclude with an analysis of the difficulties which need to be overcome in order to implement operationally enhanced observing networks and forecasting systems for the benefit of West African societies.
E. V. Rulko
Full Text Available The main requirement to imitating modeling of military operations adequacy. Proceeding from it is necessary that the behavior of modeling objects has been as much as possible approached to behavior of real objects in the same conditions of conditions or, at least, did not contradict logic of common sense and requirements of authorized documents. It creates necessity of working out of the mechanism, allowing to formalize administrative experience of commanders of corresponding levels and automatically to deduce decisions, on the basis of parameters of a current situation and preliminary set solving rules.As a rule, in decision-making process, the commander operates with difficult formalizable information at level of complex categories. Contrary to it, the object condition in modeling system is described in the form of a set of values of concrete parameters. For transformation of set of parameters of objects to parameters of higher level the method of the analysis of hierarchies is used.Thus there is the second problem demanding the permission synthesis of the device of decision-making on the basis of the received complex concepts. Use of the mechanism of an indistinct logic conclusion for this purpose is offered. In this case preference of a choice of this or that variant of behavior is set depending on character of crossing of the indistinct sets defined by the expert which functions of an accessory are constructed on axes generated before complex parameters. In quality konsekvents solving rules in advance generated strategy of behavior of modeling objects in this connection in offered algorithm actually there is no stage defuzzyfication act, and for accumulation of the conclusions the formula of algebraic association isused. The offered approach allows to carry out an automatic choice of alternative of behavior during modeling without participation of the operator.
Czubenko, Michał; Kowalczuk, Zdzisław; Ordys, Andrew
The paper presents and discusses a system ( xDriver ) which uses an Intelligent System of Decision-making (ISD) for the task of car driving. The principal subject is the implementation, simulation and testing of the ISD system described earlier in our publications (Kowalczuk and Czubenko in artificial intelligence and soft computing lecture notes in computer science, lecture notes in artificial intelligence, Springer, Berlin, 2010, 2010, In Int J Appl Math Comput Sci 21(4):621-635, 2011, In Pomiary Autom Robot 2(17):60-5, 2013) for the task of autonomous driving. The design of the whole ISD system is a result of a thorough modelling of human psychology based on an extensive literature study. Concepts somehow similar to the ISD system can be found in the literature (Muhlestein in Cognit Comput 5(1):99-105, 2012; Wiggins in Cognit Comput 4(3):306-319, 2012), but there are no reports of a system which would model the human psychology for the purpose of autonomously driving a car. The paper describes assumptions for simulation, the set of needs and reactions (characterizing the ISD system), the road model and the vehicle model, as well as presents some results of simulation. It proves that the xDriver system may behave on the road as a very inexperienced driver.
Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers...
Rasmussen, Jens; Lind, Morten
The paper describes a model of operators' decision making in complex system control, based on studies of event reports and performance in control rooms. This study shows how operators base their decisions on knowledge of system properties at different levels of abstraction depending...... on their perception of the system's immediate control requirements. These levels correspond to the abstraction hierarchy including system purpose, functions, and physical details, which is generally used to describe a formal design process. In emergency situations the task of the operator is to design a suitable...... control strategy for systems recovery, and the control systems designer should provide a man-machine interface, supporting the operator in identification of his task and in communication with the system at the level of abstraction corresponding to the immediate control requirement. A formalized...
The design of large scale complex engineered systems (LSCES) involves hundreds or thousands of designers making decisions at different levels of an organizational hierarchy. Traditionally, these LSCES are designed using systems engineering methods and processes, where the preferences of the stakeholder are flowed down the hierarchy using requirements that act as surrogates for preference. Current processes do not provide a system level guidance to subsystem designers. Value-Driven Design (VDD) offers a new perspective on complex system design, where the value preferences of the stakeholder are communicated directly through a decomposable value function, thereby providing a mechanism for improved system consistency. Requirements-based systems engineering approaches do not offer a mathematically rigorous way to capture the couplings present in the system. Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) was specifically developed to address couplings in both analysis and optimization thereby enabling physics-based consistency. MDO uses an objective function with constraints but does not provide a way to formulate the objective function. Current systems engineering processes do not provide a mathematically sound way to make design decisions when designers are faced with uncertainties. Designers tend to choose designs based on their preferences towards risky/uncertain designs, and past research has shown that there needs to be a consistency in risk preferences to enable design decisions that are consistent with stakeholder's desires. This research exploits the complimentary nature of VDD, MDO and Decision Analysis (DA) to enable consistency in communication of system preferences, consistency in physics and consistency in risk preferences. The role of VDD in this research is in formulating a value function for true preferences, whereas the role of MDO is to capture couplings and enable optimization using the value function, and the role of DA is to enable consistent design
Distributed Decision Making and Control is a mathematical treatment of relevant problems in distributed control, decision and multiagent systems, The research reported was prompted by the recent rapid development in large-scale networked and embedded systems and communications. One of the main reasons for the growing complexity in such systems is the dynamics introduced by computation and communication delays. Reliability, predictability, and efficient utilization of processing power and network resources are central issues and the new theory and design methods presented here are needed to analyze and optimize the complex interactions that arise between controllers, plants and networks. The text also helps to meet requirements arising from industrial practice for a more systematic approach to the design of distributed control structures and corresponding information interfaces Theory for coordination of many different control units is closely related to economics and game theory network uses being dictated by...
Sharma, Tarang; Choudhury, Moni; Kaur, Bindweep
from the literature and a combined best practice checklist has been proposed. CONCLUSIONS: As decisions often need to be made in areas where there is a lack of published scientific evidence, CE is employed. Therefore to ensure its appropriateness the development of a validated CE data quality check......-list to assist decision makers is essential and further research in this area is a priority....
Full Text Available This paper is about the intelligent decision-making system for the smart grid based electricity market which requires distributed decision making on the competitive environments composed of many players and components. It is very important to consider the renewable energy and emission problem which are expected to be monitored by wireless communication networks. It is very difficult to predict renewable energy outputs and emission prices over time horizon, so it could be helpful to catch up those data on real time basis using many different kinds of communication infrastructures. On this backgrounds this paper provides an algorithm to make an optimal decision considering above factors.
King, Russel J.
This qualitative study, using a modified Delphi method, was conducted to develop a decision-making framework for the total ownership cost management of complex systems in the aerospace industry. The primary focus of total ownership cost is to look beyond the purchase price when evaluating complex system life cycle alternatives. A thorough literature review and the opinions of a group of qualified experts resulted in a compilation of total ownership cost best practices, cost drivers, key performance factors, applicable assessment methods, practitioner credentials and potential barriers to effective implementation. The expert panel provided responses to the study questions using a 5-point Likert-type scale. Data were analyzed and provided to the panel members for review and discussion with the intent to achieve group consensus. As a result of the study, the experts agreed that a total ownership cost analysis should (a) be as simple as possible using historical data; (b) establish cost targets, metrics, and penalties early in the program; (c) monitor the targets throughout the product lifecycle and revise them as applicable historical data becomes available; and (d) directly link total ownership cost elements with other success factors during program development. The resultant study framework provides the business leader with incentives and methods to develop and implement strategies for controlling and reducing total ownership cost over the entire product life cycle when balancing cost, schedule, and performance decisions.
Kadiyala, M D M; Nedumaran, S; Singh, Piara; S, Chukka; Irshad, Mohammad A; Bantilan, M C S
The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980-2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040-69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4°C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60days after sowing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...
Espie, P.; Ault, G.W.; Burt, G.M.; McDonald, J.R. [University of Strathclyde (United Kingdom). Inst. for Energy and the Environment
An approach is described for electricity distribution system planning that allows issues such as load growth, distributed generation, asset management, quality of supply and environmental issues to be considered. In contrast to traditional optimisation approaches which typically assess alternative planning solution by finding the solution with the minimum total cost, the proposed methodology utilises a number of discrete evaluation criteria within a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) environment to examine and assess the trade-offs between alternative solutions. To demonstrate the proposed methodology a worked example is performed on a test distribution network that forms part of an existing distribution network in one UK distribution company area. The results confirm the suitability of MCDM techniques to the distribution planning problem and highlight how evaluating all planning problems simultaneously can provide substantial benefits to a distribution company. (Author)
Djalali, Ahmadreza; Castren, Maaret; Hosseinijenab, Vahid; Khatib, Mahmoud; Ohlen, Gunnar; Kurland, Lisa
Hospitals are cornerstones for health care in a community and must continue to function in the face of a disaster. The Hospital Incident Command System (HICS) is a method by which the hospital operates when an emergency is declared. Hospitals are often ill equipped to evaluate the strengths and vulnerabilities of their own management systems before the occurrence of an actual disaster. The main objective of this study was to measure the decision making performance according to HICS job actions sheets using tabletop exercises. This observational study was conducted between May 1st 2008 and August 31st 2009. Twenty three Iranian hospitals were included. A tabletop exercise was developed for each hospital which in turn was based on the highest probable risk. The job action sheets of the HICS were used as measurements of performance. Each indicator was considered as 1, 2 or 3 in accordance with the HICS. Fair performance was determined as hospitals had a hospital disaster management plan. The performance according to HICS was intermediate for 83% (n = 19) of the participating hospitals. No hospital had a high level of performance. The performance level for the individual sections was intermediate or fair, except for the logistic and finance sections which demonstrated a higher level of performance. The public hospitals had overall higher performances than university hospitals (P = 0.04). The decision making performance in the Iranian hospitals, as measured during table top exercises and using the indicators proposed by HICS was intermediate to poor. In addition, this study demonstrates that the HICS job action sheets can be used as a template for measuring the hospital response. Simulations can be used to assess preparedness, but the correlation with outcome remains to be studied.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Hospitals are cornerstones for health care in a community and must continue to function in the face of a disaster. The Hospital Incident Command System (HICS is a method by which the hospital operates when an emergency is declared. Hospitals are often ill equipped to evaluate the strengths and vulnerabilities of their own management systems before the occurrence of an actual disaster. The main objective of this study was to measure the decision making performance according to HICS job actions sheets using tabletop exercises. Methods This observational study was conducted between May 1st 2008 and August 31st 2009. Twenty three Iranian hospitals were included. A tabletop exercise was developed for each hospital which in turn was based on the highest probable risk. The job action sheets of the HICS were used as measurements of performance. Each indicator was considered as 1, 2 or 3 in accordance with the HICS. Fair performance was determined as Results None of the participating hospitals had a hospital disaster management plan. The performance according to HICS was intermediate for 83% (n = 19 of the participating hospitals. No hospital had a high level of performance. The performance level for the individual sections was intermediate or fair, except for the logistic and finance sections which demonstrated a higher level of performance. The public hospitals had overall higher performances than university hospitals (P = 0.04. Conclusions The decision making performance in the Iranian hospitals, as measured during table top exercises and using the indicators proposed by HICS was intermediate to poor. In addition, this study demonstrates that the HICS job action sheets can be used as a template for measuring the hospital response. Simulations can be used to assess preparedness, but the correlation with outcome remains to be studied.
Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan; Spector, J Michael
The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV:...
Connolly, Daniel J.
UNDERSTANDING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING IN THE CONTEXT OF HOTEL GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS: A MULTIPLE-CASE STUDY by Daniel J. Connolly Dr. Michael D. Olsen, Chair Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management ABSTRACT This study investigates what three large, multinational hospitality companies do in practice when evaluating and making IT investment decisions. This study was launched in an attempt to 1) learn more about ...
Dobrajska, Magdalena; Billinger, Stephan; Becker, Markus
, and (b) how the firm arrived at a particular transactional choice in each decision. We find that decision makers extensively adapt decision structures in order to effectively make governance mode choices. They adapt hierarchy span, i.e. the number of hierarchical levels involved, and expertise span, i...
Jovanovic, A.; Auerkari, P.; Brear, J.M.
A multi-criteria decision making tool for engineering applications has been developed in the European project BE5935. The tool has been developed and applied in the area of power plants, primarily for the decisions regarding the inspection and maintenance planning in the area of power plants. Practical application of the methodology and of the software is shown here for the damage assessment of critical components. (authors)
Pham-The, Hai; Nam, Nguyen-Hai; Nga, Doan-Viet; Hai, Dang Thanh; Dieguez-Santana, Karel; Marrero-Poncee, Yovani; Castillo-Garit, Juan A; Casanola-Martin, Gerardo M; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong
Quantitative Structure - Activity Relationship (QSAR) modeling has been widely used in medicinal chemistry and computational toxicology for many years. Today, as the amount of chemicals is increasing dramatically, QSAR methods have become pivotal for the purpose of handling the data, identifying a decision, and gathering useful information from data processing. The advances in this field have paved a way for numerous alternative approaches that require deep mathematics in order to enhance the learning capability of QSAR models. One of these directions is the use of Multiple Classifier Systems (MCSs) that potentially provide a means to exploit the advantages of manifold learning through decomposition frameworks, while improving generalization and predictive performance. In this paper, we presented MCS as a next generation of QSAR modeling techniques and discuss the chance to mining the vast number of models already published in the literature. We systematically revisited the theoretical frameworks of MCS as well as current advances in MCS application for QSAR practice. Furthermore, we illustrated our idea by describing ensemble approaches on modeling histone deacetylase (HDACs) inhibitors. We expect that our analysis would contribute to a better understanding about MCS application and its future perspectives for improving the decision making of QSAR models. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at email@example.com.
Full Text Available Non-Performing Loans (NPLs are representing nowadays one of the main challenges for the banking systems all over the world. Therefore, a sustainable decision-making process should be implemented, for minimizing the effects of credit risk. The current paper uses a dynamic panel regression model to present the determinants of NPLs for the largest five banks of the Romanian Banking System during 2007-2016. A Generalized Method of Moments (GMM regression is used and defined under three different types of variables: bank specific indicators, macroeconomic indicators and qualitative variables. Other studies illustrated also the determinants of NPLs in various banking systems from all around the world, such as Japan, China or several CEE countries (especially the emergent ones. After an in-depth analysis of the literature and Romanian market, the following variables were found to be relevant and were introduced into a dynamic data panel model: unemployment rate, annual average growth rate of gross domestic product, return on equity (ROE, loan to deposit ratio (LTD. The existing literature presents ROE as having a negative impact on NPLs, unemployment rate being positive correlated with NPLs and a negative relationship between economic growth and such loans. Our contribution to the current literature is represented by the introduction of two additional qualitative variables (Board Risk Management Ratio (BRMR, as the proportion of risk managers within the Board of Directors of each bank in question and the Expert Aggregate Priority Vector (EAPV, as the aggregated perceived risk regarding the NPLs. The decision of introducing these variables relies on previous research made in this area, results being validated by experts from the Romanian Banking System, according to the BASEL III and NBR criteria. The results of the current paper are consistent with the existent literature, the correlations and impact of the variables being relevant for the subject
Business educators should give students specific training in a methodology which will enable them to make logical, systematic, and rational decisions. Kepner-Tregoe Analysis (KTA), a decision making model, is described and illustrated with an example of a student buying his first car. (SC)
Reader, Simon M; Leris, Ioannis
Outcome transparency and the weight given to social information both play important roles in decision making, but we argue that an overarching influence is the degree to which individuals can and do gather information. Evolution, experience, and development may shape individual specializations in social decision making that carry over across contexts, and these individual differences may influence collective behavior and cultural evolution.
Zolfagharipoor, Mohammad Amin; Ahmadi, Azadeh
The objective of this paper is to provide an efficient framework for effluent trading in river systems. The proposed framework consists of two pessimistic and optimistic decision-making models to increase the executability of river water quality trading programs. The models used for this purpose are (1) stochastic fallback bargaining (SFB) to reach an agreement among wastewater dischargers and (2) stochastic multi-criteria decision-making (SMCDM) to determine the optimal treatment strategy. The Monte-Carlo simulation method is used to incorporate the uncertainty into analysis. This uncertainty arises from stochastic nature and the errors in the calculation of wastewater treatment costs. The results of river water quality simulation model are used as the inputs of models. The proposed models are used in a case study on the Zarjoub River in northern Iran to determine the best solution for the pollution load allocation. The best treatment alternatives selected by each model are imported, as the initial pollution discharge permits, into an optimization model developed for trading of pollution discharge permits among pollutant sources. The results show that the SFB-based water pollution trading approach reduces the costs by US$ 14,834 while providing a relative consensus among pollutant sources. Meanwhile, the SMCDM-based water pollution trading approach reduces the costs by US$ 218,852, but it is less acceptable by pollutant sources. Therefore, it appears that giving due attention to stability, or in other words acceptability of pollution trading programs for all pollutant sources, is an essential element of their success.
Green, Mavis F.
This research explores risk perception in a defined population of flight instructors and the implications of these views for flight training. Flight instructors and students engaged in collegiate aviation flight training were interviewed for this qualitative study. Thirty-three percent of the instructors interviewed reported that flying is not a risky activity. This is important because research identifies risk perception as one factor influencing instructional choices. These choices can then impact the subsequent decision-making processes of flight students. Facilitating pilot decision-making through the use of an appropriate type of learning that incorporates the modeling of consensually validated cognitive procedures and risk management processes is discussed.
Full Text Available Nowadays, various factors complicate the decision making process and the need to make decisions that consider all the factors in question, they are more than ever before. The internal and external researchers, have shown interest in the multi-criteria decision making. In our study, the method includes a multi-criteria decision making method such as Analytical Hierarchy Process, Simple additive weighting and TOPSIS Technique for order-prefrence by similarity to ideal solution( to solve the selection problem of building efficient systems we have used. Systems that have been evaluated in this issue include: Lightweight Steel Frames, Insulating concrete formwork, 3D-PANEL and Prefabricated reinforced concrete systems. Required data using the questionnaire sample (n = 150 were examined. Questionnaires among the mass of experts, academic institutions and conferences were distributed. According to the research results, using different methods of decision making, the results will yield fairly similar, so that all three methods, Prefabricated reinforced concrete systems in the first place, and the Lightweight Steel Frames system was in the Second place. The Prefabricated reinforced concrete systems, in terms of administrative and economic criterias, in the first place, and the system Lightweight Steel Frames, ranked first in terms of environmental criteria accounted for.
Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Vaiopoulou, Julie
The present study examines the factors influencing a decision-making process, with specific focus on the role of dysfunctional myths (DM). DM are thoughts or beliefs that are rather irrational, however influential to people's decisions. In this paper a decision-making process regarding the career choice of university students majoring in natural sciences and education (N=496) is examined by analyzing survey data taken via Career Decision Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ). The difficulty of making the choice and the certainty about one's decision were the state variables, while the independent variables were factors related to the lack of information or knowledge needed, which actually reflect a bounded rationality. Cusp catastrophe analysis, based on both least squares and maximum likelihood procedures, showed that the nonlinear models predicting the two state variables were superior to linear alternatives. Factors related to lack of knowledge about the steps involved in the process of career decision-making, lack of information about the various occupations, lack of information about self and lack of motivation acted as asymmetry, while dysfunctional myths acted as bifurcation factor for both state variables. The catastrophe model, grounded in empirical data, revealed a unique role for DM and a better interpretation within the context of complexity and the notion of bounded rationality. The analysis opens the nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS) perspective in studying decision-making processes. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.
Nussbaum, David; Honarmand, Kimia; Govoni, Richard; Kalahani-Bargis, Martina; Bass, Stephanie; Ni, Xinqun; Laforge, Kaitlyn; Burden, Andrea; Romero, Kristoffer; Basarke, Sonya; Courbasson, Christine; Deamond, Wade
Problem Gambling (PG) represents a serious problem for affected individuals, their families and society in general. Previous approaches to understanding PG have been confined to only a subset of the psychobiological factors influencing PG. We present a model that attempts to integrate potential causal factors across levels of organization, providing empirical evidence from the vast literature on PG and complimentary literatures in decision-making and addiction. The model posits that components are arranged systematically to bias decisions in favor of either immediately approaching or avoiding targets affording the opportunity for immediate reward. Dopamine, Testosterone and Endogenous Opioids favor immediate approach, while Serotonin and Cortisol favor inhibition. Glutamate is involved in associative learning between stimuli and promotes the approach response through its link to the DA reward system. GABA functions to monitor performance and curb impulsive decision-making. Finally, while very high levels of Norepinephrine can induce arousal to an extent that is detrimental to sound decision-making, the reactivity of the Norepinephrine system and its effects of Cortisol levels can shift the focus towards long-term consequences, thereby inhibiting impulsive decisions. Empirical evidence is provided showing the effects of each component on PG and decision-making across behavioural, neuropsychological, functional neuroimaging and genetic levels. Last, an effect size analysis of the growing pharmacotherapy literature is presented. It is hoped that this model will stimulate multi-level research to solidify our comprehension of biased decision-making in PG and suggest pharmacological and psychological approaches to treatment.
Cetiner, Sacit M [ORNL; Kisner, Roger A [ORNL; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL; Fugate, David L [ORNL
Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives where each alternative offers a different approach or path to move from a given state or condition to a desired state or condition. The generation of consistent decisions requires that a structured, coherent process be defined, immediately leading to a decision-making framework. The overall objective of the generalized framework is for it to be adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision- making modules that can perform a given set of tasks reliably. Risk-informed decision making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The implementation of the probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the proposed supervisory control system was detailed in previous milestone reports. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses variable sensor data (e.g., outlet temperature) and calculates where it is within the challenge state, its trajectory, and margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. Metrics to be evaluated include stability, cost, time to complete (action), power level, etc. The
Decision Support Systems (DSS) are a specific class of computerized information system that supports business and organizational decision-making activities. A properly-designed DSS is an interactive software-based system intended to help decision makers compile useful information from raw data, documents, personal knowledge, and/or business models to identify and solve problems and make decisions. DSS belong to an environment with multidisciplinary foundations, including database reasearch, a...
Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul
Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges
Rough Set TheoryBasic concepts and properties of rough sets Rough Membership Rough Intervals Rough FunctionApplications of Rough SetsMultiple Objective Rough Decision Making Reverse Logistics Problem with Rough Interval Parameters MODM based Rough Approximation for Feasible RegionEVRMCCRMDCRM Reverse Logistics Network Design Problem of Suji Renewable Resource MarketBilevel Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Hierarchical Supply Chain Planning Problem with Rough Interval Parameters Bilevel Decision Making ModelBL-EVRM BL-CCRMBL-DCRMApplication to Supply Chain Planning of Mianyang Co., LtdStochastic Multiple Objective Rough Decision Multi-Objective Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling UnderRough Random EnvironmentRandom Variable Stochastic EVRM Stochastic CCRM Stochastic DCRM Multi-Objective rc-PSP/mM/Ro-Ra for Longtan Hydropower StationFuzzy Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Allocation Problem under Fuzzy Environment Fuzzy Variable Fu-EVRM Fu-CCRM Fu-DCRM Earth-Rock Work Allocation Problem.
Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan
This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.
The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.
Bloom, Bernard S
To examine actual use of formal benefit/cost and benefit/risk results in health system decision making by public and private healthcare organizations. A direct survey with questions about healthcare decisions made by the respondent or the respondent's organization. The scope of this survey precluded meaningful quantitative analysis, thus descriptive and qualitative analyses were performed. An initial questionnaire was tested in 2001 with 15 respondents in 4 countries. In 2002, a revised questionnaire was sent to a convenience sample of 116 individuals representing information users (providers, payers, and regulators) and information producers (technology firms and academics) in France, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Responses were received from 104 people (89.7%). Every information user employed benefit/risk analyses to accept or reject new interventions and delete existing technologies. In addition, 42.1% of information users also used formal benefit/cost results (cost effectiveness, cost benefit, and/or cost utility). Seven providers/payers in the United States, 1 in France, and 1 in the United Kingdom required such analyses, as did 1 UK regulator. Most did not produce their own analyses but relied on those of public organizations (eg, Food and Drug Administration, National Institute of Clinical Effectiveness), academics, and pharmaceutical firms. A surprisingly high percent of information users (42.1%) employed any formal economic cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit, or cost utility analysis, CEA, CBA, or CUA evaluations in deciding whether to accept, pay for, or reject new interventions or to delete old interventions. Still, this figure was substantially higher than expected given the results of previous studies, nearly all of which found low use of formal benefit/risk and benefit/cost analyses.
Kárný, Miroslav; Wolpert, David
This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selﬁsh decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: • task allocation to maximize “the wisdom of the crowd”; • design of a society of “edutainment” robots who account for one anothers’ emotional states; • recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; • coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; • efﬁciently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized...
.... The separation of psychology into sub-disciplines or paradigms that don't talk to one another. 3. The failure to distinguish between technical and common language usage when dealing with concepts such as decision making and command...
Full Text Available Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers, whose irreverence does not entail any juridical sanctions, rather its application is sanctioned by the self - awareness. The acception and stability of the ethical aspect price decision making are determined by the characteristic of selected marketing environment.
Perez Bernabeu Elena
Full Text Available Decision making is one of the important tasks of every manager. The process of taking decisions has to be based on knowledge. For optimizing this process some software solutions has been created. In this article we tried to summarize some of the features which exists in some software applications.
National Research Council Staff; Space Studies Board; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council; National Academy of Sciences
... from Planetary Satellites and Small Solar System Bodies Framework for Decision Making Task Group on Sample Return from Small Solar System Bodies Space Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998 i Copyrightthe true use are Please breaks...
Most studies of the treatment of minorities in criminal justice systems show that ethnic minorities are punished more harshly. This paper aims to explain ethnic inequality in prosecutorial decision making in the Dutch juvenile justice system. Based on statistical analyses of 409 case files, it
National Research Council Staff
... from Planetary Satellites and Small Solar System Bodies Framework for Decision Making Task Group on Sample Return from Small Solar System Bodies Space Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998 i Copyrightthe true use are Please breaks...
Jokura, Hidefumi; Yoshimoto, Takashi
Treatment of some large, deep-seated arteriovenous malformations is still a challenge to neurosurgeons. The recent development of non-invasive imaging modalities has increased the chance of finding asymptomatic AVM's, for which evaluation for treatment is more complicated than in symptomatic cases. Currently there are 3 major treatment options for AVM: microsurgical removal, radiosurgery, and intravascular embolization. It is not easy to choose the best single modality or combination of modalities for individual patients, who have different types of onset, neurological deficits, size and location, and social background. After the installation of the Gamma Knife in November 1991, we established an 'AVM Treatment Board.' It comprises vascular neurosurgeons, endovascular neurosurgeons, and radio-neurosurgeons, and meetings are held twice a month. Every AVM case referred to us is presented to the board, and treatment strategy is selected after a discussion among experts who know the advantages and drawbacks of each treatment modality. We describe this board system in detail and emphasize the importance of gathering expertise in decision making. (author)
Adhikari, Pashupati Raj
Materials selection processes have been the most important aspects in product design and development. Knowledge-based system (KBS) and some of the methodologies used in the materials selection for the design of aircraft cabin metallic structures are discussed. Overall aircraft weight reduction means substantially less fuel consumption. Part of the solution to this problem is to find a way to reduce overall weight of metallic structures inside the cabin. Among various methodologies of materials selection using Multi Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) techniques, a few of them are demonstrated with examples and the results are compared with those obtained using Ashby's approach in materials selection. Pre-defined constraint values, mainly mechanical properties, are employed as relevant attributes in the process. Aluminum alloys with high strength-to-weight ratio have been second-to-none in most of the aircraft parts manufacturing. Magnesium alloys that are much lighter in weight as alternatives to the Al-alloys currently in use in the structures are tested using the methodologies and ranked results are compared. Each material attribute considered in the design are categorized as benefit and non-benefit attribute. Using Ashby's approach, material indices that are required to be maximized for an optimum performance are determined, and materials are ranked based on the average of consolidated indices ranking. Ranking results are compared for any disparity among the methodologies.
Discusses structure, credibility, and use of the Computer Based Training (CBT) Advisor, an expert system designed to help managers make judgements about course selection, system selection, cost/benefits, development effort, and probable success of CBT projects. (MBR)
Arwin Datunaya Wahyudi Sumari
Full Text Available Quick, accurate, and complete information is highly required for supporting strategically impact decision making in a Military Operation (MO in order to reduce the decision cycle and to minimize the loss. For that purpose, we propose, design and implement a hierarchical Multi Agentbased Information Fusion System for Decision Making Support (MAIFSDMS. The information fusion is implemented by applying Maximum Score of the Total Sum of Joint Probabilities (MSJP fusion method and is done by a collection of Information Fusion Agents (IFA that forms a multiagent system. MAIFS uses a combination of generalization of Dasarathy and Joint Director’s Laboratory (JDL process models for information fusion mechanism. Information fusion products that are displayed in graphical forms provide comprehensive information regarding the MO’s area dynamics. By observing the graphics resulted from the information fusion, the commandant will have situational awareness and knowledge in order to make the most accurate strategic de cision as fast as possible.
Ellen, Moriah E; Léon, Gregory; Bouchard, Gisèle; Lavis, John N; Ouimet, Mathieu; Grimshaw, Jeremy M
Decisions regarding health systems are sometimes made without the input of timely and reliable evidence, leading to less than optimal health outcomes. Healthcare organizations can implement tools and infrastructures to support the use of research evidence to inform decision-making. The purpose of this study was to profile the supports and instruments (i.e., programs, interventions, instruments or tools) that healthcare organizations currently have in place and which ones were perceived to facilitate evidence-informed decision-making. In-depth semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with individuals in three different types of positions (i.e., a senior management team member, a library manager, and a 'knowledge broker') in three types of healthcare organizations (i.e., regional health authorities, hospitals and primary care practices) in two Canadian provinces (i.e., Ontario and Quebec). The interviews were taped, transcribed, and then analyzed thematically using NVivo 9 qualitative data analysis software. A total of 57 interviews were conducted in 25 organizations in Ontario and Quebec. The main findings suggest that, for the healthcare organizations that participated in this study, the following supports facilitate evidence-informed decision-making: facilitating roles that actively promote research use within the organization; establishing ties to researchers and opinion leaders outside the organization; a technical infrastructure that provides access to research evidence, such as databases; and provision and participation in training programs to enhance staff's capacity building. This study identified the need for having a receptive climate, which laid the foundation for the implementation of other tangible initiatives and supported the use of research in decision-making. This study adds to the literature on organizational efforts that can increase the use of research evidence in decision-making. Some of the identified supports may increase the use of
Carpenter, Stephanie M; Yoon, Carolyn
Research on consumer decision making and aging is especially important for fostering a better understanding of ways to maintain consumer satisfaction and high decision quality across the life span. We provide a review of extant research on the effects of normal aging on cognition and decision processes and how these age-related processes are influenced by task environment, meaningfulness of the task, and consumer expertise. We consider how research centered on these topics generates insights about changes in consumption decisions that occur with aging and identify a number of gaps and directions for future research. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.
Mutemwa, Richard I
At the onset of health system decentralization as a primary health care strategy, which constituted a key feature of health sector reforms across the developing world, efficient and effective health management information systems (HMIS) were widely acknowledged and adopted as a critical element of district health management strengthening programmes. The focal concern was about the performance and long-term sustainability of decentralized district health systems. The underlying logic was that effective and efficient HMIS would provide district health managers with the information required to make effective strategic decisions that are the vehicle for district performance and sustainability in these decentralized health systems. However, this argument is rooted in normative management and decision theory without significant unequivocal empirical corroboration. Indeed, extensive empirical evidence continues to indicate that managers' decision-making behaviour and the existence of other forms of information outside the HMIS, within the organizational environment, suggest a far more tenuous relationship between the presence of organizational management information systems (such as HMIS) and effective strategic decision-making. This qualitative comparative case-study conducted in two districts of Zambia focused on investigating the presence and behaviour of five formally identified, different information forms, including that from HMIS, in the strategic decision-making process. The aim was to determine the validity of current arguments for HMIS, and establish implications for current HMIS policies. Evidence from the eight strategic decision-making processes traced in the study confirmed the existence of different forms of information in the organizational environment, including that provided by the conventional HMIS. These information forms attach themselves to various organizational management processes and key aspects of organizational routine. The study results point
Marewski, Julian N.; Gigerenzer, Gerd
Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care. PMID:22577307
Hicks, Karen Campbell
This thesis investigated the communication and decision making process as part of the Systems Engineering practices at the NASA/Marshall Center to determine its level of effectiveness. Data was collected across three change requests to assess how decisions were made, how the decisions were communicated, and whether a process mattered in the formulation and dissemination of those decisions. Data results revealed the comprehensive decision making process for the technical change requests to be effective. Evidence revealed that the process was sufficiently tailored to accommodate the need of each individual technical change which promoted effective communication amongst the stakeholders in the formulation of the strategic decision recommendations elevated to upper management. However, data results also revealed the dissemination of the final decision and approval of the change requests from the higher organizational level down to all stakeholders was less effective. An establishment of a culmination meeting at the end of the change request decision process in which to close the communication loop with all entities would be beneficial.
Peter J. Roussopoulos; Von J. Johnson
Describes how to compare predictions of fuel hazard for Northeastern logging slash with a number of fuel hazard "standards." This system provides objective criteria for making fuel management decisions.
Stringer, W. C.; And Others
Describes the development of a computer simulation model of forage-beef production systems, which is intended to incorporate soil, forage, and animal decisions into an enterprise scenario. Produces a summary of forage production and livestock needs. Cites positive assessment of the program's value by participants in inservice training workshops.…
Henry, Thomas C.; Creswell, John W.
Describes a survey of 33 multi-unit community colleges designed to determine the relationship between (1) the levels at which decisions were made in nine selected areas; (2) institutional size and history; and (3) the number of system-level personnel. Discusses the implications of the findings for practice. (AYC)
Rowlands, Bruce; Chappell, Clive
A qualitative study examined 18 small and medium-sized business owners' decision to adopt or reject Australia's new apprenticeship system. Participation was based on three interconnected processes: psychological commitment, financial justification, and operational choice. Contextual elements in the internal and external environment influenced…
Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst
Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.
Andersen, Jens Enevold Thaulov
It has been long recognized that results of analytical chemistry are not flawless, owing to the fact that professional laboratories and research laboratories analysing the same type of samples by the same type of instruments are likely to obtain significantly different results. The European......, forensics and other fields of science where analytical chemistry is the key instrument of decision making. In order to elucidate the potential origin of the statistical variations found among laboratories, a major program was undertaken including several analytical technologies where the purpose...... of accuracy published in research literature. The possible deviations are suspected to originate from long-term variations of detection systems of instrumental analysis, and the impact on these findings on future measurements of analytical chemistry is discussed....
Bolten, J. D.; Mohammed, I. N.; Srinivasan, R.; Lakshmi, V.
Better understanding of the hydrological cycle of the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) and addressing the value-added information of using remote sensing data on the spatial variability of soil moisture over the Mekong Basin is the objective of this work. In this work, we present the development and assessment of the LMRB (drainage area of 495,000 km2) Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The coupled model framework presented is part of SERVIR, a joint capacity building venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development, providing state-of-the-art, satellite-based earth monitoring, imaging and mapping data, geospatial information, predictive models, and science applications to improve environmental decision-making among multiple developing nations. The developed LMRB SWAT model enables the integration of satellite-based daily gridded precipitation, air temperature, digital elevation model, soil texture, and land cover and land use data to drive SWAT model simulations over the Lower Mekong River Basin. The LMRB SWAT model driven by remote sensing climate data was calibrated and verified with observed runoff data at the watershed outlet as well as at multiple sites along the main river course. Another LMRB SWAT model set driven by in-situ climate observations was also calibrated and verified to streamflow data. Simulated soil moisture estimates from the two models were then examined and compared to a downscaled Soil Moisture Active Passive Sensor (SMAP) 36 km radiometer products. Results from this work present a framework for improving SWAT performance by utilizing a downscaled SMAP soil moisture products used for model calibration and validation. Index Terms: 1622: Earth system modeling; 1631: Land/atmosphere interactions; 1800: Hydrology; 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets; 1840 Hydrometeorology; 1855: Remote sensing; 1866: Soil moisture; 6334: Regional Planning
Ajayi, I. A.; Omirin, Fadekemi F.
This study investigated the use of Management Information Systems (MIS) in decision-making on long-term planning, short-term planning and budgeting in the South-West Nigerian Universities. The study used the descriptive research design of the survey type. Data were collected from a sample of 600 subjects consisting of 400 academic staff holding…
Sparks, Betsy H.
Business Intelligence is a major expenditure in many organizations and necessary for competitive advantage. These expenditures do not result in maximum benefits for the organization if the information obtained from the Business Intelligence System (BIS) is not used in the management decision-making process. This quantitative research study used an…
Lowe, Robert; Ziemke, Tom
The somatic marker hypothesis (SMH) posits that the role of emotions and mental states in decision-making manifests through bodily responses to stimuli of import to the organism's welfare. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), proposed by Bechara and Damasio in the mid-1990s, has provided the major source of empirical validation to the role of somatic markers in the service of flexible and cost-effective decision-making in humans. In recent years the IGT has been the subject of much criticism concerning: (1) whether measures of somatic markers reveal that they are important for decision-making as opposed to behaviour preparation; (2) the underlying neural substrate posited as critical to decision-making of the type relevant to the task; and (3) aspects of the methodological approach used, particularly on the canonical version of the task. In this paper, a cognitive robotics methodology is proposed to explore a dynamical systems approach as it applies to the neural computation of reward-based learning and issues concerning embodiment. This approach is particularly relevant in light of a strongly emerging alternative hypothesis to the SMH, the reversal learning hypothesis, which links, behaviourally and neurocomputationally, a number of more or less complex reward-based decision-making tasks, including the 'A-not-B' task - already subject to dynamical systems investigations with a focus on neural activation dynamics. It is also suggested that the cognitive robotics methodology may be used to extend systematically the IGT benchmark to more naturalised, but nevertheless controlled, settings that might better explore the extent to which the SMH, and somatic states per se, impact on complex decision-making.
Gieci, A.; Gyarfas, F.
The prototype of the NPPO-TINA expert system (Nuclear Power Plant Operation-Transparent Inference Architecture) is described. This system has been developed to support the entire decision-making intellectual activity in the control of complex technological processes. One of the ways leading to human-machine symbiosis in the integrated cognitive system is outlined. The starting model of the situation in which the operator's problem-solving task begins is described. The characteristics of human behavior in decision-making are analyzed, and the moments are explained of the most suitable use of the expert system to support the whole intellectual activity, in knowledge-based decision-making by way of problem solving. The TINA environment for the formation of expert systems is described, including the hierarchic dynamic inference control. The process of building up the NPPO-TINA expert system is outlined, and the results of testing the system prototype on the problem of an accident of the nuclear power plant primary circuit due to a failure of the coolant make-up pumps are given. (Z.S.). 10 figs., 11 refs
Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III
Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.
Electric power has been traditionally supplied to customers at regulated rates by vertically integrated utilities (VIUs), which own generation, transmission, and distribution systems. However, the regulatory authorities of VIUs are promoting competition in their businesses to lower the price of electric energy. Consequently, in new deregulated circumstances, many suppliers and marketers compete in the generation market, and conflict of interest may often occur over transmission. Therefore, a neutral entity, called an independent system operator (ISO), which operates the power system independently, has been established to give market participants nondiscriminatory access to transmission sectors with a natural monopoly, and to facilitate competition in generation sectors. Several types of ISOs are established at present, with their respective regions and authorities. The ISO receives many requests from market participants to transfer power, and must evaluate the feasibility of their requests under the system's condition. In the near future, regulatory authorities may impose various objectives on the ISOs. Then, based on the regulators' policies, the ISO must determine the optimal schedules from feasible solutions, or change the market participants' requests. In a newly developed power market, market participants will conduct their transactions in order to maximize their profit. The most crucial information in conducting power transactions is price and demand. A direct transaction between suppliers and consumers may become attractive because of its stability of price, while in a power exchange market, gaming and speculation of participants may push up electricity prices considerably. To assist the consumers in making effective decisions, suitable methods for forecasting volatile market price are necessary. This research has been approached from three viewpoints: Firstly, from the system operator's point of view, desirable system operation and power market structure
Stephanie Ying-Fen Chen
Full Text Available Two experiments investigated how category information is used in decision making under uncertainty and whether the framing of category information influences how it is used. Subjects were presented with vignettes in which the categorization of a critical item was ambiguous and were asked to choose among a set of actions with the goal of attaining the desired outcome for the main character in the story. The normative decision making strategy was to base the decision on all possible categories; however, research on a related topic, category-based induction, has found that people often only consider a single category when making predictions when categorization is uncertain. These experiments found that subjects tend to consider multiple categories when making decisions, but do so both when it is and is not appropriate, suggesting that use of multiple categories is not driven by an understanding of what categories are and are not relevant to the decision. Similarly, although a framing manipulation increased the rate of multiple-category use, it did so in situations in which multiple-category use was and was not appropriate.
Butt, Muhammad Arif; Akram, Muhammad
We present a new intuitionistic fuzzy rule-based decision-making system based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets for a process scheduler of a batch operating system. Our proposed intuitionistic fuzzy scheduling algorithm, inputs the nice value and burst time of all available processes in the ready queue, intuitionistically fuzzify the input values, triggers appropriate rules of our intuitionistic fuzzy inference engine and finally calculates the dynamic priority (dp) of all the processes in the ready queue. Once the dp of every process is calculated the ready queue is sorted in decreasing order of dp of every process. The process with maximum dp value is sent to the central processing unit for execution. Finally, we show complete working of our algorithm on two different data sets and give comparisons with some standard non-preemptive process schedulers.
The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) measures affective decision making and has revealed decision making impairments across a wide range of eating disorders. This study aimed to investigate affective decision making in severely obese individuals.
Ghaley, Bhim Bahadur; Vesterdal, Lars; Porter, John Roy
The empirical evidence of decline in ecosystem services (ES) over the last century has reinforced the call for ES quantification, monitoring and valuation. Usually, only provisioning ES are marketable and accounted for, whereas regulating, supporting and cultural ES are typically non......-marketable and overlooked in connection with land-use or management decisions. The objective of this study was to quantify and value total ES (marketable and non-marketable) of diverse production systems and management intensities in Denmark to provide a basis for decisions based on economic values. The production systems...... provision. Such monetary valuation can be used by policy makers and land managers as a tool to assess ES value and monitor the sustained flow of ES. The application of ES-based valuation for land management can enhance ES provision for maintaining the productive capacity of the land without depending...
Corominas, Lluís; Larsen, Henrik Fred; Flores-Alsina, Xavier
of the impact categories is conducted to assess how value choices (policy decisions) may affect the management of WWTPs. For the scenarios with only N-limitation, the LCA-based ranking of the control strategies is sensitive to the choice of weighting factors, whereas this is not the case for N&P or P......This paper focuses on the use of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate the performance of seventeen control strategies in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). It tackles the importance of using site-specific factors for nutrient enrichment when decision-makers have to select best operating....../or energy savings present an environmental benefit for N&P and P-deficient systems. This is not the case when addressing N-deficient systems for which the use of chemicals (even for improving N removal efficiencies) is not always beneficial for the environment. A sensitivity analysis on using weighting...
de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique
If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...
Szu, Harold; Jung, TP; Makeig, Scott
We propose to enhance the decision making of pilot, co-pilot teams, over a range of vehicle platforms, with the aid of neuroscience. The goal is to optimize this collaborative decision making interplay in time-critical, stressful situations. We will research and measure human facial expressions, personality typing, and brainwave measurements to help answer questions related to optimum decision-making in group situations. Further, we propose to examine the nature of intuition in this decision making process. The brainwave measurements will be facilitated by a University of California, San Diego (UCSD) developed wireless Electroencephalography (EEG) sensing cap. We propose to measure brainwaves covering the whole head area with an electrode density of N=256, and yet keep within the limiting wireless bandwidth capability of m=32 readouts. This is possible because solving Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and finding the hidden brainwave sources allow us to concentrate selective measurements with an organized sparse source -->s sensing matrix [Φs], rather than the traditional purely random compressive sensing (CS) matrix[Φ].
Beck, Jessica; Kempener, Ruud; Cohen, Brett; Petrie, Jim
This paper explores a new approach to planning and optimization of energy networks, using a mix of global optimization and agent-based modeling tools. This approach takes account of techno-economic, environmental and social criteria, and engages explicitly with inherent network complexity in terms of the autonomous decision-making capability of individual agents within the network, who may choose not to act as economic rationalists. This is an important consideration from the standpoint of meeting sustainable development goals. The approach attempts to set targets for energy planning, by determining preferred network development pathways through multi-objective optimization. The viability of such plans is then explored through agent-based models. The combined approach is demonstrated for a case study of regional electricity generation in South Africa, with biomass as feedstock
González González, Ana Isabel; Miquel Gómez, Ana María; Rodríguez Morales, David; Hernández Pascual, Montserrat; Sánchez Perruca, Luis; Mediavilla Herrera, Inmaculada
1) To analyse concordance between the level of risk classification using the Adjusted Groups Morbidity (GMA) tool and the assigned level of intervention by general practitioners (GP). 2) To study the usefulness of the GMA tool as an aid in electronic medical records (EMR) for decision making. Cross-sectional observational study of concordance. Primary Care. Madrid Health Service. Twenty eight GPs. A sample of 840 patients assigned to participating GPs was selected by disproportionate stratified random sampling (0.65 kappa, 0.125 precision, 5% positive rate, 95% confidence level). Weighted Cohen Kappa index for the degree of concordance between the GMA tool and the GPs. The usefulness of the tool was assessed using an ad hoc developed questionnaire. Kappa weighted index obtained was 0.60 (95%CI: 0.55-0.65). In 3% of cases the disagreement was maximum. The GPs found that the grouping tool had been useful in 76% of cases. Moderate strength/good concordance; incorporating a grouping tool in the EMR helps as a reminder for taking more proactive/integrated decisions based on social and health needs of people with chronic diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005. In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT’s ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes; Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1 or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2. These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.
Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.
The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions
Yucel, Eray; Tokel, Emre
All decisions are practically made within a chainwise social setup named a decision-making chain (DMC). This paper considers some cases of an idea (a project proposal) propagating through an organizational DMC. Survival of a proposal through successive links of the DMC depends on the relative power of those links, in addition to proposal’s intrinsic value. Then it is not impossible to reject a good proposal or to fail to reject a bad proposal, either of which may generate undesired, though no...
Blanca Aurora Arce Barboza
Full Text Available Low food supply is a major problem affecting a large percentage of the livestock population in Colombia and is largely associated to inappropriate choice of forage species; and thus not well adapted to the environmental conditions of a specific region. To mitigate this problem, without incurring increasing costs associated to changing environmental conditions, it is possible to match the adaptive capacity of species to the environment in which they grow. A decision support system was developed to select suitable forage species for a given environment. The system is based on the use of existing information about requirements of the species rather than specific experimentation. From the information gathered, a database was generated and implemented on ASP.NET in C # and SQL Server database. This system allows users to search and select pastures and forage species for specific soil and climatic conditions of a particular farm or region, through a user-friendly web platform.
Full Text Available Material handling equipment (MHE is important for every industry because it has an effect on the productivity of manufacturing. Conveyor systems are presently one popular type of MHE. This paper presents an integration of the analytic network process (ANP with the benefits, opportunities, costs and risk (BOCR model in order to select the best conveyor system. The proposed model established a network with four merits, six strategies criteria, and twenty six sub-criteria with four alternatives (present, roller conveyor, chain conveyor, and monorail. The ANP is to determine the relative weights of an evaluative criteria and decision alternatives. Therefore, the final ranking of the alternatives are calculated by synthesizing the score of each alternative under BOCR. The results showed that the best alternative under all five methods is the chain conveyor. These research results can be easily applied, adapted and used to improve performance of selecting the conveyer system in small and medium enterprises through large industries.
Brown, Molly E.
Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.
Barber, D.S.; Brockman, D.L.; Buxton, L.D. [and others
This document provides information concerning the Integrated Services Management System (ISMS) that was developed for the Laboratories Services Division during the period February 1994 through May 1995. ISMS was developed as a formal method for centralized management of programs within the Division. With minor modifications, this system can be adapted for management of all overhead functions at SNL or for sector level program management. Included in this document are the reasons for the creation of this system as well as the resulting benefits. The ISMS consists of six interlinked processes; Issues Management, Task/Activity Planning, Work Decision, Commitment Management, Process/Project Management, and Performance Assessment. Those processes are described in detail within this document. Additionally, lessons learned and suggestions for future improvements are indicated.
There is a fundamental difference between the acceptability of a civilizatory or societal risk and the acceptability of the decision-making process that leads to a civilizatory or societal risk. The analysis of individual risk decisions - regarding who, executes when which indisputably hazardous, unhealthy or dangerous behaviour under which circumstances - is not helpful in finding solutions for the political decisions at hand in Germany concerning nuclear energy in particular or energy in general. The debt for implementation of any technology, in the sense of making the technology a success in terms of broad acceptance and general utilisation, lies with the particular industry involved. Regardless of the technology, innovation research identifies the implementation phase as most critical to the success of any innovation. In this sense, nuclear technology is at best still an innovation, because the implementation has not yet been completed. Fear and opposition to innovation are ubiquitous. Even the economy - which is often described as 'rational' - is full of this resistance. Innovation has an impact on the pivotal point between stability, the presupposition for the successful execution of decisions already taken and instability, which includes insecurity, but is also necessary for the success of further development. By definition, innovations are beyond our sphere of experience; not at the level of reliability and trust yet to come. Yet they are evaluated via the simplifying heuristics for making decisions proven not only to be necessary and useful, but also accurate in the familiar. The 'settlement of the debt of implementation', the accompanying communication, the decision-making procedures concerning the regulation of averse effects of the technology, but also the tailoring of the new technology or service itself must be directed to appropriate target groups. But the group often aimed at in the nuclear debate, the group, which largely determines political
Full Text Available A brain-computer interface (BCI creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This
Lapenta, William; Irwin, Dan
SERVIR is a regional visualization and monitoring system for Mesoamerica that integrates satellite and other geospatial data for improved scientific knowledge and decision making by managers, researchers, students, and the general public. SERVIR addresses the nine societal benefit areas of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). This talk will provide an overview of products and services available through SERVIR.
Alfaro, Jose F.; Miller, Shelie; Johnson, Jeremiah X.; Riolo, Rick R.
Energy planners in regions with low rates of electrification face complex and high-risk challenges in selecting appropriate generating technologies and grid centralization. To better inform such processes, we present an Agent-Based Model (ABM) that facilitates engagement with stakeholders. This approach evaluates long-term plans using the cost of delivered electricity, resource mix, jobs and economic stimulus created within communities, and decentralized generation mix of the system, with results provided in a spatially-resolved format. This approach complements existing electricity planning methods (e.g., Integrated Resource Planning) by offering novel evaluation criteria based on typical stakeholder preferences. We demonstrate the utility of this approach with a case study based on a “blank-slate” scenario, which begins without generation or transmission infrastructure, for the long-term rural renewable energy plans of Liberia, West Africa. We consider five electrification strategies: prioritizing larger populations, deploying large resources, creating jobs, providing economic stimulus, and step-wise cost minimization. Through the case study we demonstrate how this approach can be used to engage stakeholders, supplement more established energy planning tools, and illustrate the effects of stakeholder decisions and preferences on the performance of the system. - Highlights: • An Agent Based Model, BABSTER, for electrification planning is presented. • BABSTER provides a highly engaging spatially resolved interface. • Allows flexible investigation of decision strategies with real-world incentives. • We show that decision strategies directly impact centralization and resource choice. • It is illustrated through the case study of Liberia, West Africa.
Khan, Maudood; Rickman, Doug; Limaye, Ashutosh; Crosson, Bill; Layman, Charles; Hemmings, Sarah
The topics covered in this slide presentation are: (1) Post-war growth of U.S scientific enterprise, (2) Success of air quality regulations, (3) Complexity and coupled systems, (4) Advances in remote sensing technology, (5) Development planning in the 21stcentury, (5a) The challenge for policy maker and scientist, (5b) Decision-making science, (5c) Role of public-private partnerships.
Parsons, S; Jennings, NR
This paper summarises our on-going work on mixed- initiative decision making which extends both classical decision theory and a symbolic theory of decision making based on argumentation to a multi-agent domain.
Hulst, A.H. van der; Ruijsendaal, M.
Tactical-and strategic decision making in the safety domain is a form of 'complex decision making with Naturalistic Decision Making as the predomi-nant line of research. At the heart of the Decision Making expertise are 'situa-tion assessment capabilities, the most 'intuitive aspect of complex
R F&aauml;re; S Grosskopf; D Margaritis
In this note we extend the standard DEA paradigm to address the question of how one can price DMUs (decision-making units). To do this we use an adjoint transformation to the technology generated by these DMUs which links to traditional linear programming theory of the firm and is similar to pricing portfolios in financial markets. We also provide a numerical example illustrating the practicality of the proposed method.
The paper discusses the trend in paradigms within decision research, drifting from concepts of decision making in terms of normative models of 'rational decision making, through behavioral models in terms of 'biases' - deviations from rational models, toward models of actual decision making...... behavior, such as the SRK concept, naturalistic decision making, and dynamic decision making.In this evolution, concepts such as decision making, management, and behavioral control merge and a concurrent change in concepts underlying design of systems aiming at control of behavior is visible, from...
Epstein Richard H
Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of
Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H
No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the
Montero, M.; Moraleda, M.; Claver, F.; Vazquez, C.; Gutierrez, J.
TEMAS is an user-friendly decision aiding computerised system to help in the selection of the best local strategy of restoration when a post-accidental environmental contamination with long lived radionuclides (''137 Cs and ''90 Sr) must be faced TEMAS provides answer for complex scenarios on whichever place of the European Community territory ( urban agricultural and forest) with different specific levels of contamination, uses and dimensions. The initial version was the result of the TEMAS project (Techniques and Management Strategies for Environmental Restoration) supported by the EU during the 4th Framework Program. Some Aspects of the methodology are at present being improved. This document applies to the computerised version 2.1 (VAZ01). (Author)
Full Text Available Background: The decision about whether to start a family within a partnership can be viewed as a result of an interaction process. The influence of each of the partners in a couple differs depending on their individual preferences and intentions towards having children. Both of the partners additionally influence each other's fertility intentions and preferences. Objective: We specify, estimate, and test a model that examines the decision about whether to have a child as a choice that is made jointly by the two partners. The transition to the birth of a (further child is investigated with the explicit consideration of both the female partner and the male partner in the partnership context. Methods: An approach for modelling the interactive influences of the two actors in the decision-making process was proposed. A trivariate distribution consisting of both the female and the male partners' fertility intentions, as well as the joint generative decision, was modelled. A multivariate non-linear probit model was chosen and the problem of identification in estimating the relative effects of the actors was resolved. These parameters were used to assess the relative importance of each of the partners' intentions in the decision. We carried out the analysis with MPLUS. Data from the panel of intimate relationships and family dynamics (pairfam was used to estimate the model. Results: The biographical context of each of the partners in relation to their own as well as to their partner's fertility intentions was found to be of considerable importance. Of the significant individual and partner effects, the male partner was shown to have the greater influence. But the female partner was found to have stronger parameters overall and she ultimately has a veto power in the couple's final decision.
Full Text Available An integrated information system based DSS is developed for Open and Distance Learning (ODL institutions in India. The system has been web structured with the most suitable newly developed modules. A DSS model has been developed for solving semi-structured and unstructured problems including decision making with regard to various programmes and activities operating in the ODLIs. The DSS model designed for problem solving is generally based on quantitative formulas, whereas for problems involving imprecision and uncertainty, a fuzzy theory based DSS is employed. The computer operated system thus developed would help the ODLI management to quickly identify programmes and activities that require immediate attention. It shall also provide guidance for obtaining the most appropriate managerial decisions without any loss of time. As a result, the various subsystems operating in the ODLI are able to administer its activities more efficiently and effectively to enhance the overall performance of the concerned ODL institution to a new level.
Barbini, Paolo; Cevenini, Gabriele; Furini, Simone; Barbini, Emanuela
Scoring systems are frequently proposed in medicine to summarize a set of qualitative and quantitative items by means of a numeric score. Their design often requires modelling ability and subjective judgments. This can make it difficult to adapt a scoring system to a clinical setting different from that in which the system was developed. The objective of this study was to discuss an approach to derive scoring systems, which can be easily modified and matched to any scenario. A naïve Bayes approach was used to develop a scoring system that is completely defined by descriptive tables obtained by frequency counts from the training set. The approach was implemented to build a locally customized scoring system for planning transfusion requirements after cardiac surgery. The performance of this system was evaluated and compared with that of a logistic regression model designed using the same predictors. The working sample was a set of 3182 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery at the University Hospital of Siena, Italy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was equal to 0.811 and 0.824 for the scoring system and for the logistic regression model, respectively. This result proves that this global index of discrimination capacity was virtually identical and very good for both models. The values of sensitivity, specificity and overall correct-classification percentage obtained by the leave-one-out method were practically the same for the two models (73.9% versus 75.3%). An easy-fitting and trustworthy scoring system can be directly developed using a naïve Bayes approach. The simplicity of its design allows the system to be customized to any specific institution and updated regularly. This aspect has important practical implications because it can encourage the use of scoring systems among clinicians, enabling their performance to be properly assessed in a wider clinical context. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Jørgensen, L.N.; Noe, E.; Langvad, A.M.
The highly complex knowledge of scientific disciplines makes nuanced analysis and modelling possible. However, the information produced often does not reach farmers because it is presented in a way that does not correspond to the way their work is carried out in practice. The decision support...... 1000 farmers). A sociological investigation of farmers' decision-making styles in the area of crop protection has shown that arable farmers can be divided into three major groups: (a) system-orientated farmers, (b) experience-based farmers and (c) advisory-orientated farmers. The information required...... by these three groups to make their decisions varies and therefore different ways of using decision support systems need to be provided. Decision support systems need to be developed in close dialogue and collaboration with user groups....
Raicu, A.; Oanta, E.; Sabau, A.
Decision making process has a great influence in the development of a given project, the goal being to select an optimal choice in a given context. Because of its great importance, the decision making was studied using various science methods, finally being conceived the game theory that is considered the background for the science of logical decision making in various fields. The paper presents some basic ideas regarding the game theory in order to offer the necessary information to understand the multiple-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems in engineering. The solution is to transform the multiple-criteria problem in a one-criterion decision problem, using the notion of utility, together with the weighting sum model or the weighting product model. The weighted importance of the criteria is computed using the so-called Step method applied to a relation of preferences between the criteria. Two relevant examples from engineering are also presented. The future directions of research consist of the use of other types of criteria, the development of computer based instruments for decision making general problems and to conceive a software module based on expert system principles to be included in the Wiki software applications for polymeric materials that are already operational.
The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...
Focuses on the use of graphic representations to enable students to improve their decision making skills in the social studies. Explores three visual aids used in assisting students with decision making: (1) the force field; (2) the decision tree; and (3) the decision making grid. (CMK)
Adida, M; Maurel, M; Kaladjian, A; Fakra, E; Lazerges, P; Da Fonseca, D; Belzeaux, R; Cermolacce, M; Azorin, J-M
Abnormalities involving the prefrontal cortex (PFC) have long been postulated to underpin the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Investigations of PFC integrity have focused mainly on the dorsolateral PFC (DLPFC) and abnormalities in this region have been extensively documented. However, defects in schizophrenia may extend to other prefrontal regions, including the ventromedial PFC (VMPFC), and evidence of VMPFC abnormalities comes from neuropathological, structural and functional studies. Patients with acquired brain injury to the VMPFC display profound disruption of social behaviour and poor judgment in their personal lives. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was developed to assess decision-making in these neurological cases : it presents a series of 100 choices from four card decks that differ in the distribution of rewarding and punishing outcomes. Whilst healthy volunteers gradually develop a preference for the two "safe" decks over the course of the task, patients with VMPFC lesions maintain a preference for the two "risky" decks which are associated with high reinforcement in the short term, but significant long-term debt. Interestingly, damage to VMPFC may cause both poor performance on the IGT and lack of insight concerning the acquired personality modification. Recently, our group reported a trait-related decisionmaking impairment in the three phases of bipolar disorder. In a PET study, VMPFC dysfunction was shown in bipolar manic patients impaired on a decision-making task and an association between decision-making cognition and lack of insight was described in mania. A quantitative association between grey matter volume of VMPFC and memory impairment was previously reported in schizophrenia. Research suggests that lack of insight is a prevalent feature in schizophrenia patients, like auditory hallucinations, paranoid or bizarre delusions, and disorganized speech and thinking. Because schizophrenia is associated with significant social or occupational
Full Text Available Predicting of the best teacher in Indonesia aims to spur the development of the growth and improve the quality of the education. In this paper, the predicting of the best teacher is implemented based on predefined criteria. To help the predicting process, a decision support system is needed. This paper employs Multi Atribute Decesion Making Weighted Product (MADMWP method. The result of this method is tested some teachers in junior high school islamic boarding Al-Barokah school, Simalungun, North Sumatera, Indonesia. This system can be used to help in solving problems of the best teacher prediction.
John D. WARBACH
Full Text Available Michigan State University (MSU held a focus group in Detroit, Michigan, USA in 2012 with members of the urban agriculture movement. The session included business persons involved in growing and selling food, members of the health system, community group members and city government. The purpose was to identify the full range of sectors of society involved in the food system, to identify the perceptions of the food system among the city population, test eight sustainability competency areas developed by MSU faculty as concepts and as they related to urban food systems, and to discover what kinds of decision support tools were needed to foster sustainable food systems in Detroit. The focus group session was video and audio recorded, the tapes transcribed and coded to identify common themes and responses to the competency area concepts. The competency areas presented were: ecological integrity, community well-being/social justice, economic vitality, aesthetic quality, civic responsibility, systems interdependence, critical thinking, and personal growth. Participants indicated that they considered sustainability a value that people in urban agriculture shared, but that people struggled with how to move forward toward sustainability. Focus group participants were able to identify some aspect of each of the eight competency areas that they perceived people in urban agriculture, and the broader city resident population already recognized, or engaged in without recognizing that they were doing something that could lead to more sustainable outcomes. However, participants perceived that a sustainable metropolitan food system remains a somewhat elusive goal to achieve for people engaged in pursuing urban agriculture in Detroit due to a negative perception they expressed that many of the city’s population holds for growing food in the city, and in general for goods produced in the city. Information gained from the focus group and subsequent focus groups
Forsythe, J Chris [Sandia Park, NM; Speed, Ann E [Albuquerque, NM; Jordan, Sabina E [Albuquerque, NM; Xavier, Patrick G [Albuquerque, NM
A method for computer emulation of human decision making defines a plurality of concepts related to a domain and a plurality of situations related to the domain, where each situation is a combination of at least two of the concepts. Each concept and situation is represented in the computer as an oscillator output, and each situation and concept oscillator output is distinguishable from all other oscillator outputs. Information is input to the computer representative of detected concepts, and the computer compares the detected concepts with the stored situations to determine if a situation has occurred.
Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.
Structured decision making (SDM) provides a framework for making sound decisions even when faced with uncertainty, and is a transparent, defensible, and replicable method used to understand complex problems. A hallmark of SDM is the explicit incorporation of values and science, which often includes participation from multiple stakeholders, helping to garner trust and ultimately result in a decision that is more likely to be implemented. The core steps in the SDM process are used to structure thinking about natural resources management choices, and include: (1) properly defining the problem and the decision context, (2) determining the objectives that help describe the aspirations of the decision maker, (3) devising management actions or alternatives that can achieve those objectives, (4) evaluating the outcomes or consequences of each alternative on each of the objectives, (5) evaluating trade-offs, and (6) implementing the decision. Participatory modeling for SDM includes engaging stakeholders in some or all of the steps of the SDM process listed above. In addition, participatory modeling often is crucial for creating qualitative and quantitative models of how the system works, providing data for these models, and eliciting expert opinion when data are unavailable. In these ways, SDM provides a framework for decision making in natural resources management that includes participation from stakeholder groups throughout the process, including the modeling phase.
Full Text Available A new combining criterion, the Multiplicative Proportional Deviative Influence (MPDI is presented for combining or aggregating multi-expert numerical judgments in Yes-or-No type ill-structured group decision making situations. This newly proposed criterion performs well in comparison with the widely used aggregation means: the Arithmetic Mean (AM, and Geometric Mean (GM, especially in better reflecting the degree of agreement between criteria levels or numerical experts’ judgments. The MPDI can be considered as another class of combining criteria that make effect of the degree of agreement among multiple numerical judgments. The MPDI is applicable in integrating several collaborative or synergistic decision making systems through combining final numerical decision outputs. A discussion and generalization of the proposed MPDI is discussed withnumerical example.
Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris
Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in
Bayesian evidence ratios give a very attractive way of comparing models, and being able to quote the odds on a particular model seems a very clear motivation for making a choice. Jeffreys' scale of evidence is often used in the interpretation of evidence ratios. A natural question is, how often will you get it right when you choose on the basis of some threshold value of the evidence ratio? The evidence ratio will be different in different realizations of the data, and its utility can be examined in a Neyman-Pearson like way to see what the trade-offs are between statistical power (the chance of "getting it right") versus the false alarm rate, picking the alternative hypothesis when the null is actually true. I will show some simple examples which show that there can be a surprisingly large range for an evidence ratio under different realizations of the data. It seems best not to simply rely on Jeffrey's scale when decisions have to be taken, but also to examine the probability of taking the "wrong" decision if some evidence ratio is taken to be decisive. Interestingly, Turing knew this and applied it during WWII, although (like much else) he did not publish it.
Podinovski, V. V.
A set of interrelated methods is presented for analyzing multicriteria decision-making problems on the basis of an information on the criteria importance and change of the preferences along their scales. Computer systems of decision-making support, implementing these methods within the methodology
Alameda Bailén, Jose Ramón; Paíno Quesada, Susana; Mogedas Valladares, Ana Isabel
Several neuropsychological studies have shown that chronic cannabis users have cognitive impairments, including decision-making process. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the process, through the somatic marker hypothesis in a sample of 41 cannabis users compared with a control group of equal size, and to analyze the influence of age, sex, education level, age of onset and amount of daily consumption. In order to do that, the software "Cartas" (similar to the Iowa Gambling Task), was used, implementing its two versions: normal and reverse. The results show significant differences between cannabis users and control group in the normal and reverse task execution. By block analysis, the control group obtained higher scores in the normal task execution, however, in the reverse task, the differences between groups are present in the initial task execution but not final task execution. None of the analyzed variables (age, sex ...) are significantly related to task performance. These results suggest the existence of alterations in the decision making process of consumers cannabis, which may relate to the difficulty in generating somatic markers, and not for insensitivity punishments insensitivity.
Garza, Maria; Mohan, Chadag Vishnumurthy; Rahman, Meezanur; Wieland, Barbara; Häsler, Barbara
The aquaculture sector in Bangladesh is an important employer and a significant source of foreign exchange. In addition, it contributes significantly to food security due to the role of fish in peoples' diets, the most important source of protein and micronutrients. However, infectious diseases represent an important barrier to sector development due to economic losses and vulnerability of smallholders. The aim of this study was to gain an overview of the impact of infectious diseases in the aquaculture sector, and to assess the usefulness and use of impact studies in decision making for animal health management and biosecurity governance in Bangladesh. A review of scientific and grey literature on infectious disease impact in different aquaculture systems was conducted and their methodologies and findings summarised. Subsequently, interviews with 28 stakeholders from the private and public sector were conducted to enquire about decision-making structures in animal health management. The data were analysed using the framework method to allow the development of themes, by using the information, experiences and opinions inductively obtained from interviewees, deductively through the reviewed literature. Results showed a substantial socio-economic impact of infectious diseases. The numerous stakeholders involved in the decision-making process explained that key barriers to effective aquaculture health management were insufficient resources to investigate and tackle infectious aquatic animal diseases, a dearth of legislation and capacity for disease surveillance, a reliance on reactive response, and a lack of impact and evidence-based approaches for prioritising problem-solving, commonly based on anecdotal evidence. Furthermore, communication among the multiple stakeholders involved was reported to be weak. This complex situation requires a multi-level response, which should span from strengthening the knowledge of farmers and professionals in the field to the
Full Text Available it better 3. Do new things Using available information for better decision-making Lead to smartness Business • How to identify decisions that have significant value and relevant decision data • What is the value of improved...) Manage Process / Enable Actuation (Act, Intervene, Outcome) Non-linear layers interconnected by data flows Smarter decision- making stack CSIR examples: Smarter decision-making Smart city Logistics Subsidence Infra- structure...
This book presents different methods for analyzing the body language (movement, position, use of personal space, silences, pauses and tone, the eyes, pupil dilation or constriction, smiles, body temperature and the like) for better understanding people’s needs and actions, including biometric data gathering and reading. Different studies described in this book indicate that sufficiently much data, information and knowledge can be gained by utilizing biometric technologies. This is the first, wide-ranging book that is devoted completely to the area of intelligent decision support systems, biometrics technologies and their integrations. This book is designated for scholars, practitioners and doctoral and master’s degree students in various areas and those who are interested in the latest biometric and intelligent decision making support problems and means for their resolutions, biometric and intelligent decision making support systems and the theory and practice of their integration and the opportunities fo...
Wu, Ching-Hui; Lin, Tsu-Jen; Kao, Tsu-Mu; Chen, Chyn-Rong
This paper describes a risk-informed decision-making approach used to resolve the fire barrier issue in a BWR-4 nuclear plant where Appendix R separation requirements cannot be met without installing additional fire protection features such as electrical raceway fire barrier system. The related risk measures in CDF (core damage frequency) and LERF (large early release frequency) of the fire barrier issue can be determined by calculating the difference in plant risks between various alternative cases and that met the requirement of the Appendix R. In some alternative cases, additional early-detection and fast-response fire suppression systems are suggested. In some other cases, cable re-routing of some improper layout of non-safety related cables are required. Sets of fire scenarios are re-evaluated more detailed by reviewing the cable damage impact for the BWR-4 plant. The fire hazard model, COMPBRM III-e, is used in this study and the dominant results in risk measures are benchmarked with the CFD code, FDS 2.0, to ensure that the risk impact of fire barrier is estimated accurately in the risk-informed decision making. The traditional deterministic qualitative methods, such as defense-in-depth, safety margin and post-fire safety shutdown capability are also proceeded. The value-impact analysis for proposed alternatives of fire wrapping required by Appendix R has been completed for technical basis of the exemption on Appendix R application. The outcome of the above analysis should be in compliance with the regulatory guidelines (RG) 1.174 and 1.189 for the applications in the risk-informed decision-making of the fire wrapping issues. (author)
Mbuyiseni Goodlife Ntuli
Full Text Available This paper advocates the adoption of systemic thinking in decision-making processes in municipalities. Most importantly, in this epoch of managing in complex and thought-provoking business environment, decision making is one of the most important skills required by any manager to remain effective. The success of a municipality or any business hinges on how well decisions are taken and implemented. In this paper, I intend to scrutinize decision making processes at strategic management levels in the municipalities within the province of KwaZulu-Natal. In doing that, a mixed method approach of qualitative and quantitative techniques was adopted in gathering data from sixty-one municipalities within the province of KwaZulu-Natal. This was done in order to substantiate theoretical perspectives from different erudite scholars on the discourse of systemic thinking in decision making processes. This notion of systemic thinking is coined upon the universally used rational decision making process model. Thus, the conceptualization of rational decision-making model was also considered in this paper, the possibility of decision failure, the complexity of the municipality, and systemic thinking as the recommended option of dealing with complexity was explored. The results indicates that the theory that underpins the adoption of systemic thinking in dealing with complexity today’s business environment is relevant.
Fleming, Stephen M; Whiteley, Louise Emma; Hulme, Oliver James
Perceptual judgments are often biased by prospective losses, leading to changes in decision criteria. Little is known about how and where sensory evidence and cost information interact in the brain to influence perceptual categorization. Here we show that prospective losses systematically bias...... toward accounting for how prospective losses are flexibly integrated with sensory evidence in the brain....
McWey, Lenore M.; Henderson, Tammy L.; Alexander, Jenny Burroughs
Using ecological theory and a mixed-methods approach, the authors examined family-court interactions for foster care decisions made in Virginia across three policy periods: 1980 to 1993, 1994 to 1997, and 1997 to present (N = 95). For the first and last policy periods, quantitative analyses revealed significant differences in the rates at which…
Runkler, Thomas; Coupland, Simon; John, Robert
Full text on Nottingham eprints - http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/36609/ This paper concerns itself with decision making under uncertainty and the consideration of risk. Type-1 fuzzy logic by its (essentially) crisp nature is limited in modelling decision making as there is no uncertainty in the membership function. We are interested in the role that interval type-2 fuzzy sets might play in enhancing decision making. Previous work by Bellman and Zadeh considered decision making to be based...
Yager, Ronald R
We consider the problem of multicriteria decision making (MCDM) in the situation in which there exists a prioritization of criteria. A good example of prioritization among criteria occurs in the case of air travel, where concerns about passenger safety have a higher priority then economic concerns. Tradeoffs between saving on gasoline usage and jeopardizing passenger safety are unacceptable. We show how this prioritization of criteria can be modeled by using importance weights in which the weights associated with the lower priority criteria are related to the satisfaction of the higher priority criteria. We provide some models that allow for the formalization of these prioritized MCDM problems using both the Bellman-Zadeh paradigm for MCDM and the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator method.
A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)
Between 2008 and 2035 global energy demand is expected to grow by 53%. While most industry-level analyses of manufacturing in the United States (U.S.) have traditionally focused on high energy consumers such as the petroleum, chemical, paper, primary metal, and food sectors, the remaining sectors account for the majority of establishments in the U.S. Specifically, of the establishments participating in the Energy Information Administration's Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey in 2006, the non-energy intensive" sectors still consumed 4*109 GJ of energy, i.e., one-quarter of the energy consumed by the manufacturing sectors, which is enough to power 98 million homes for a year. The increasing use of renewable energy sources and the introduction of energy-efficient technologies in manufacturing operations support the advancement towards a cleaner future, but having a good understanding of how the systems and processes function can reduce the environmental burden even further. To facilitate this, methods are developed to model the energy of manufacturing across three hierarchical levels: production equipment, factory operations, and industry; these methods are used to accurately assess the current state and provide effective recommendations to further reduce energy consumption. First, the energy consumption of production equipment is characterized to provide machine operators and product designers with viable methods to estimate the environmental impact of the manufacturing phase of a product. The energy model of production equipment is tested and found to have an average accuracy of 97% for a product requiring machining with a variable material removal rate profile. However, changing the use of production equipment alone will not result in an optimal solution since machines are part of a larger system. Which machines to use, how to schedule production runs while accounting for idle time, the design of the factory layout to facilitate production, and even the
Bridge, Jeffrey A.; McBee-Strayer, Sandra M.; Cannon, Elizabeth A.; Sheftall, Arielle H.; Reynolds, Brady; Campo, John V.; Pajer, Kathleen A.; Barbe, Remy P.; Brent, David A.
Objective: Decision-making deficits have been linked to suicidal behavior in adults. However, it remains unclear whether impaired decision making plays a role in the etiopathogenesis of youth suicidal behavior. The purpose of this study was to examine decision-making processes in adolescent suicide attempters and never-suicidal comparison…
Agung Gita Subakti; Maria Pia Adiati
In an organization, decision making hold an important role. That is why a decision made by managers should be a final decision that should be done by their subordinates or those who are related with the organization. In the effort to increase the quality of management information system, a research was held in X Resorts and Hotels Bandung to analyze management information system in the relation to decision making especially in Food and Beverage Service Department and recommendation of how to ...
Fong, Wee-Kean; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Lun, Yu-Fat
In spite of the fact that cities are the main sources of CO 2 emissions, presently there are still no specific measures directly addressing the global warming issue in the urban planning process in Malaysia. The present study thus aims to shed new light in the urban planning sector in Malaysia by adopting System Dynamics Model as one of the decision making tools in the urban planning process, with specific considerations on the future CO 2 emission trends. This paper presented projections of future CO 2 emission trends based on the case of Iskandar Development Region of Malaysia, under various options of urban policies, using the System Dynamics Model. The projections demonstrated the capability of the said model in serving as a decision making tool in the urban planning process, with specific reference to CO 2 emissions from cities. Recommendations have been made on the possible approach of adopting the model in the process of Structure Plan study. If the current model was successfully adopted in the urban planning process in Malaysia, it will mark the first step for Malaysia in taking specific considerations on the issues of CO 2 emissions and global warming in the urban planning process. (author)
Seidl, C.; Traub, S.
This paper investigates the existence of an editing phase and studies the com- pliance of subjects' behaviour with the most popular multiattribute decision rules. We observed that our data comply well with the existence of an editing phase, at least if we allow for a natural error rate of some 25%.
Rudolph Frederick Stapelberg
Full Text Available This paper reviews current research into infrastructure systems interdependencies with regard to safesty risks induced by natural, technological and intentional hazards. The paper further considers risk informed decision-making.
Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene
Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.
Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found that cognitive styles have a positive impact on decision-making styles. In spite of the abundant research on factors that affect decision-making styles, few researches have tested the relationship between cognitive styles and decision-making styles. This study examines the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles in Iran. This study, like most research paper studies, cannot easily be generalized. Furthermore, the results of this study could be affected by economic conditions.
This book introduces methods for uncertain multi-attribute decision making including uncertain multi-attribute group decision making and their applications to supply chain management, investment decision making, personnel assessment, redesigning products, maintenance services, military system efficiency evaluation. Multi-attribute decision making, also known as multi-objective decision making with finite alternatives, is an important component of modern decision science. The theory and methods of multi-attribute decision making have been extensively applied in engineering, economics, management and military contexts, such as venture capital project evaluation, facility location, bidding, development ranking of industrial sectors and so on. Over the last few decades, great attention has been paid to research on multi-attribute decision making in uncertain settings, due to the increasing complexity and uncertainty of supposedly objective aspects and the fuzziness of human thought. This book can be used as a ref...
This paper provides the results of the Survey-2000 measuring technology transfer for management information systems in health care. The relationships with systems approaches, user involvement, usersatisfaction, and decision-making were measured and are presented. The survey also measured the levels Internet and Intranet presents in acute care hospitals, which will be discussed in future articles. The depth of the survey includes e-commerce for both business to business and customers. These results are compared, where appropriate, with results from survey 1997 and changes are discussed. This information will provide benchmarks for hospitals to plan their network technology position and to set goals. This is the first of three articles based upon the results of the Srvey-2000. Readers are referred to a prior article by the author that discusses the survey design and provides a tutorial on technology transfer in acute care hospitals.
Political and policy dynamics associated with local road systems planning, management, and financing merit special attention. This study: 1) analyzes stakeholder attitudes, knowledge, and engagement about financing for local road system management, t...
Lam, Chi Pang
Interactions between humans and autonomous systems are always necessary. They could be very simple interactions such as a person pushing a button to trigger a specific function, or more complicated interactions such as an autonomous vehicle interacting with other human drivers. Therefore, a safe and efficient interaction is crucial for advancing autonomous systems, especially those requiring persistent interactions with humans. One common type of such systems is the human-assistance system su...
Rolita, Lisa; Surarso, Bayu; Gernowo, Rahmat
In order to improve airport safety management system (SMS) performance, an evaluation system is required to improve on current shortcomings and maximize safety. This study suggests the integration of the DEMATEL and ANP methods in decision making processes by analyzing causal relations between the relevant criteria and taking effective analysis-based decision. The DEMATEL method builds on the ANP method in identifying the interdependencies between criteria. The input data consists of questionnaire data obtained online and then stored in an online database. Furthermore, the questionnaire data is processed using DEMATEL and ANP methods to obtain the results of determining the relationship between criteria and criteria that need to be evaluated. The study cases on this evaluation system were Adi Sutjipto International Airport, Yogyakarta (JOG); Ahmad Yani International Airport, Semarang (SRG); and Adi Sumarmo International Airport, Surakarta (SOC). The integration grades SMS performance criterion weights in a descending order as follow: safety and destination policy, safety risk management, healthcare, and safety awareness. Sturges' formula classified the results into nine grades. JOG and SMG airports were in grade 8, while SOG airport was in grade 7.
Full Text Available In order to improve airport safety management system (SMS performance, an evaluation system is required to improve on current shortcomings and maximize safety. This study suggests the integration of the DEMATEL and ANP methods in decision making processes by analyzing causal relations between the relevant criteria and taking effective analysis-based decision. The DEMATEL method builds on the ANP method in identifying the interdependencies between criteria. The input data consists of questionnaire data obtained online and then stored in an online database. Furthermore, the questionnaire data is processed using DEMATEL and ANP methods to obtain the results of determining the relationship between criteria and criteria that need to be evaluated. The study cases on this evaluation system were Adi Sutjipto International Airport, Yogyakarta (JOG; Ahmad Yani International Airport, Semarang (SRG; and Adi Sumarmo International Airport, Surakarta (SOC. The integration grades SMS performance criterion weights in a descending order as follow: safety and destination policy, safety risk management, healthcare, and safety awareness. Sturges' formula classified the results into nine grades. JOG and SMG airports were in grade 8, while SOG airport was in grade 7.
Lugaric, Luka; Krajcar, Slavko
Recognized as implementation actors of operative measures for transition towards a low carbon economy, cities must establish a development roadmap integrating local resources with local energy development plans. A systematic approach does not exist yet and cities develop their plans individually, which is difficult for small and medium sized cities due to limited development capacities. Conventional city planning approaches do not integrate considerations on energy, economy and environment in transition plans in an easily comparable way, yet making decisions with regards to these parameters is vital to determine outcomes of planned developments on future sustainability of the city. The paper presents a framework model based on emergy synthesis which integrates energy, economic and environmental city systems in the decision making process, examining associated theoretical challenges and application limitations. The method is applied on the city of Sisak in Croatia which has developed plans to implement several initiatives geared towards creating a smart energy city. The model enables simulation and assessment of impacts of individual projects targeting the development of a smart energy city on city sustainability expressed through emergy performance, used as a tool for evaluating local development alternatives within the boundary of local resources. - Highlights: • Key concepts of present city development trends towards sustainability are examined. • Emergy synthesis is examined and applied as a tool for policy and decision makers. • Emergy model of a small city is developed, along with submodels for renewable energy sources and buildings. • Simulation of 5 different projects shows impacts on overall city sustainability in a comparable manner. • Increase in emergy sustainability index is confirmed after presumed implementation of simulated projects.
Collaborative decision making is a successful approach in settings where data analysis and querying can be done interactively. In large scale systems with huge data volumes or many users, collaboration is often hindered by impractical runtimes. Existing work on improving collaboration focuses on ...... to bring about more effective and more efficient retrieval systems that support the users' decision making process. We sketch promising research directions for more efficient algorithms for collaborative decision making, especially for large scale systems....
Benavides Molineros, Julia; Aguirre Ramirez, Nestor
In Colombia, decisions related to genetically modified organisms (GMOs) must be supported by assessment of the risk to biodiversity, human health and agricultural production. Based on this assessment, authorities can make decisions involving authorization or denial of the requested activities. The rationality of the decision-making process is very well established with respect to human health, particularly toxicity and allergenicity, but that is not the case for biodiversity issues. One of the biggest problems in this area is the lack of definition of a decision-making methodology, which leads to decisions made in an intuitive and non-systematic manner. Authorities in the field have recognized the need for a decision-making information system to help solve this situation. A proposal for the basic structure of a decision-making information system oriented to authorities involved in the process is presented. The proposal was developed based on a review of the main existing methodologies for GMO risk assessment and on a case study of the gene flow from GMOs to wild relatives. The structure is presented as a broad entity-relationship model from which the detailed design of the system can be developed. The proposal emphasizes the documentation of the decision protocols and the rationality of use of the information inputs.
Dinnie, K.S.; Grunberg, V. [Nuclear Safety Solutions Ltd., Toronto, Ontario (Canada)
This paper describes a conceptual approach to calculating an allowable outage time in the event of loss of a stand-by safety system, in this case the Emergency Power System (EPS), using risk minimization as the guiding principle. The paper reviews the overall role of the electrical power systems in the context of the general design philosophy for nuclear plants, the risk significance of the EPS and the risk implications if the system becomes unavailable. An example is provided to illustrate the procedure. (author)
Cruz, Magda Rr; Martins, Cristina; Dias, João; Pinto, José S
Bariatric surgery is an important method for treatment of morbid obesity. It is known that significant nutritional deficiencies might occur after surgery, such as, calorie-protein malnutrition, iron deficiency anemia, and lack of vitamin B12, thiamine, and folic acid. The objective of our study was to validate a computerized intelligent decision support system that suggests nutritional diagnoses of patients submitted to bariatric surgery. There were fifteen clinical cases that were developed and sent to three dietitians in order to evaluate and define a nutritional diagnosis. After this step, the cases were sent to four bariatric surgery expert dietitians who were aiming to collaborate on a gold standard. The nutritional diagnosis was to be defined individually, and any disagreements were solved through a consensus. The final result was used as the gold standard. Bayesian networks were used to implement the system, and database training was done with Shell Netica. For the system validation, a similar answer rate was calculated, as well as the specificity and sensibility. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were projected to each nutritional diagnosis. Among the four experts, the rate of similar answers found was 80% (48/60) to 93% (56/60), depending on the nutritional diagnosis. The rate of similar answers of the system, compared to the gold standard, was 100% (60/60). The system sensibility and specificity were 95.0%. The ROC curves projection showed that the system was able to represent the expert knowledge (gold standard), and to help them in their daily tasks. The system that was developed was validated to be used by health care professionals for decision-making support in their nutritional diagnosis of patients submitted to bariatric surgery.
Evaluation of confidence about one's knowledge is key to the brain's ability to monitor cognition. To investigate the neural mechanism of confidence assessment, we examined a biologically realistic spiking network model and found that it reproduced salient behavioral observations and single-neuron activity data from a monkey experiment designed to study confidence about a decision under uncertainty. Interestingly, the model predicts that changes of mind can occur in a mnemonic delay when confidence is low; the probability of changes of mind increases (decreases) with task difficulty in correct (error) trials. Furthermore, a so-called “hard-easy effect” observed in humans naturally emerges, i.e., behavior shows underconfidence (underestimation of correct rate) for easy or moderately difficult tasks and overconfidence (overestimation of correct rate) for very difficult tasks. Importantly, in the model, confidence is computed using a simple neural signal in individual trials, without explicit representation of probability functions. Therefore, even a concept of metacognition can be explained by sampling a stochastic neural activity pattern. PMID:25948870
Flaming, Susan C.
The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into
Hagmayer, Y.; Witteman, C.L.M.
Normative causal decision theories argue that people should use their causal knowledge in decision making. Based on these ideas, we argue that causal knowledge and reasoning may support and thereby potentially improve decision making based on expected outcomes, narratives, and even cues. We will
West, Dana R.
Students and their parents/guardians rely on school counselors to provide counseling services based on ethically sound principles. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence about what influences a school counselor's ethical decision making. Ethical decision making for this study was defined as the degree to which decisions pertaining to…
Morey, Janis T.; Dansereau, Donald F.
College students' decision making is often less than optimal and sometimes leads to negative consequences. The effectiveness of two strategies for improving student decision making--node-link mapping and social perspective taking (SPT)--are examined. Participants using SPT were significantly better able to evaluate decision options and develop…
Ko, C-H; Wang, P-W; Liu, T-L; Chen, C-S; Yen, C-F; Yen, J-Y
Persistent gaming, despite acknowledgment of its negative consequences, is a major criterion for individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD). This study evaluated the adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of individuals with IGD. We recruited 87 individuals with IGD and 87 without IGD (matched controls). All participants underwent an interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th Edition) diagnostic criteria for IGD and completed an adaptive decision-making task; the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation Scale, Chen Internet Addiction Scale, and Barratt Impulsivity Scale were also assessed on the basis of the information from the diagnostic interviews. The results demonstrated that the participants in both groups tend to make more risky choices in advantage trials where their expected value (EV) was more favorable than those of the riskless choice. The tendency to make a risky choice in advantage trials was stronger among IGD group than that among controls. Participants of both groups made more risky choices in the loss domain, a risky option to loss more versus sure loss option, than they did in the gain domain, a risky option to gain more versus sure gain. Furthermore, the participants with IGD made more risky choices in the gain domain than did the controls. Participants with IGD showed higher and lower preferences for intuitive and deliberative decision-making styles, respectively, than controls and their preferences for intuition and deliberation were positively and negatively associated with IGD severity, respectively. These results suggested that individuals with IGD have elevated EV sensitivity for decision-making. However, they demonstrated risky preferences in the gain domain and preferred an intuitive rather than deliberative decision-making style. This might explain why they continue Internet gaming despite negative consequences. Thus, therapists should focus more on decision-making
Stein, Mari-Klara; Newell, Sue; Galliers, Robert D.
of such information systems. Based on a multi-site field study, we suggest that representational quality is achieved through four types of negotiations that human actors engage in when confronted with the materiality of a new IS. These negotiations are associated with three broad practices (instantiation, re......-narration and meta-narration), and three different information production/consumption situations. We contribute to the relational theorization of representational quality and extend classification systems research by drawing explicit attention to the importance of ‘materialization’ of classification systems...
Ernst, K.; Preston, B. L.; Tenggren, S.; Klein, R.; Gerger-Swartling, Å.
Many challenges to adaptation decision-making and action have been identified across peer-reviewed and gray literature. These challenges have primarily focused on the use of climate knowledge for adaptation decision-making, the process of adaptation decision-making, and the needs of the decision-maker. Studies on climate change knowledge systems often discuss the imperative role of climate knowledge producers in adaptation decision-making processes and stress the need for producers to engage in knowledge co-production activities and to more effectively meet decision-maker needs. While the influence of climate knowledge producers on the co-production of science for adaptation decision-making is well-recognized, hardly any research has taken a direct approach to analyzing the challenges that climate knowledge producers face when undertaking science co-production. Those challenges can influence the process of knowledge production and may hinder the creation, utilization, and dissemination of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making. This study involves semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and participant observations to analyze, identify, and contextualize the challenges that climate knowledge producers in Sweden face as they endeavor to create effective climate knowledge systems for multiple contexts, scales, and levels across the European Union. Preliminary findings identify complex challenges related to education, training, and support; motivation, willingness, and culture; varying levels of prioritization; professional roles and responsibilities; the type and amount of resources available; and professional incentive structures. These challenges exist at varying scales and levels across individuals, organizations, networks, institutions, and disciplines. This study suggests that the creation of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making is not supported across scales and levels in the climate knowledge production landscape. Additionally
McCaughey, Jamie W.; Finnigan, David
Faced with uncertain scientific forecasts of a potential hazard, it is perhaps natural to wait and see. As we wait, uncertainties do decrease, but so do our options to minimise impacts of the hazard. This tradeoff is fundamental to preparing for natural hazards, yet difficult to communicate. Interactive systems gaming is one promising way forward. We are developing in-person interactive games, drawing on role-playing and other table-top scenario exercises in natural hazards, as well as on game-based modeling of complex systems. Our games model an unfolding natural hazard crisis (such as volcanic unrest or an approaching typhoon) as a complex social-physical system. Participants take on the roles of diverse stakeholder groups (including government, scientists, media, farmers, city residents, and others) with differing expertise, responsibilities, and priorities. Interactions among these groups play out in a context of decreasing scientific uncertainty and decreasing options for actions to reduce societal risk. Key design challenges are (1) to engage players without trivialising the real-world context; (2) to provide the right level of guidance for players to navigate the system; and (3) to enable players to face realistic tradeoffs and see realistic consequences of their choices, without feeling frustrated that the game is set up for them to fail. We will first prototype the games with general public and secondary-school participants, then adjust this for specialist groups working in disaster management. We will illustrate participatory systems gaming techniques in our presentation 'A toolkit of systems gaming techniques' in the companion EGU session EOS6: 'Perform! A platform to discuss art & science projects with live presentation'.
Marzband, Mousa; Parhizi, Narges; Savaghebi, Mehdi
are treated as uncertainties in the proposed structure. In order to handle the uncertainties, Taguchi0s orthogonal array testing-TOAT approach is utilized. Then, the shortage or surplus of the MGs power should be submitted to a central EMS-CEMS in the secondary-level. In order to validate the proposed control...... structure, a test system is simulated and optimized based on multi-period imperialist competition algorithm- MICA. The obtained results clearly show that the proposed BLCS is effective in achieving optimal dispatch of generation resources in systems with multiple MGs....
Lee, Chang Won; Kwak, N K
This paper deals with strategic enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a health-care system using a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) model. The model is developed and analyzed on the basis of the data obtained from a leading patient-oriented provider of health-care services in Korea. Goal criteria and priorities are identified and established via the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Goal programming (GP) is utilized to derive satisfying solutions for designing, evaluating, and implementing an ERP. The model results are evaluated and sensitivity analyses are conducted in an effort to enhance the model applicability. The case study provides management with valuable insights for planning and controlling health-care activities and services.
Cho, Seongkyung; Choi, Seungho; Kim, Hyerim; Song, Jiyeon; Lee, Yoonsup; Sohn, Seohyun
This study was done in order to anticipate the aspect of publicity enhancement on nuclear spent fuel so that it can find the evaluation methods of alternative ways of management which could applied actually and make the decision making system of Publicity Enhancement Committee in advance. In Korea, the nuclear spent fuel is temporarily stored inside of the nuclear facility field, and it is expected that Gori nuclear facility is going to be saturated since 2016 but the solutions are still incomplete. The problem of management of nuclear spent fuel is an important issue in terms of not only the nuclear power policy but also of safe management of the already made nuclear spent fuel. This study has its meaning to draw the evaluation criteria of the management alternatives on nuclear spent fuel which can be applied in Korean case, and to find the necessity of verifying the evaluation of management alternatives through Publicity Enhancement because of different stands according to the interests. As a result, rather than technological engineering safety evaluation, qualitative analysis in terms of social costs, quantitative evaluation in terms of economic costs, this study advises the methods of public hearings and citizen juries which are effective, which makes it meaningful
Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.; Mawdesley, Michael J.
This work describes the development of a project model centred on the information and knowledge generated and used by managers. It describes a knowledge-based system designed for this purpose. A knowledge acquisition exercise was undertaken to determine the tasks of project managers and the
Full Text Available The paper explores the links between capital relocation and soft locational factors addressing the quality of the business environment and the quality of life within the European Union. System competition is viewed as a competition between countries for the mobile factors capital and labour. The issue of systems competition is topical and insufficiently explored by contemporary literature. The scarcity of scientific papers describing the links between system competition theories and contemporary corporate geography theories, especially of the ones including the analysis of soft location factors, is a challenging aspect, which motivates the choice of this subject. This paper’s primary aim is to deliver an overview of the basic corporate geography conceptions, stressing the importance of soft location factors in today’s competition between systems for the mobile factors capital and labour. The paper further contains an analysis of the correlations between indicators regarding the institutional design of countries as developed by the World Bank (Ease of Doing Business, the Happiness Scale and the latest available data of FDI Stocks for the EU countries (2016. The relevance of such a study is based on the evidence that the contemporary business education relies on an extensive knowledge of the business environment. In the circumstance of similar infrastructural conditions, the main difference between locations is made by soft location factors. Since developed economies are characterised by a high degree of ubiquity of soft factors, the paper concludes that developing and emerging economies should foster the development of their soft location factors.
Macmillan, Alexandra; Davies, Michael; Shrubsole, Clive; Luxford, Naomi; May, Neil; Chiu, Lai Fong; Trutnevyte, Evelina; Bobrova, Yekatherina; Chalabi, Zaid
The UK government has an ambitious goal to reduce carbon emissions from the housing stock through energy efficiency improvements. This single policy goal is a strong driver for change in the housing system, but comes with positive and negative "unintended consequences" across a broad range of outcomes for health, equity and environmental sustainability. The resulting policies are also already experiencing under-performance through a failure to consider housing as a complex system. This research aimed to move from considering disparate objectives of housing policies in isolation to mapping the links between environmental, economic, social and health outcomes as a complex system. We aimed to support a broad range of housing policy stakeholders to improve their understanding of housing as a complex system through a collaborative learning process. We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop a qualitative causal theory linking housing, energy and wellbeing. Qualitative interviews were followed by two interactive workshops to develop the model, involving representatives from national and local government, housing industries, non-government organisations, communities and academia. More than 50 stakeholders from 37 organisations participated. The process resulted in a shared understanding of wellbeing as it relates to housing; an agreed set of criteria against which to assess to future policy options; and a comprehensive set of causal loop diagrams describing the housing, energy and wellbeing system. The causal loop diagrams cover seven interconnected themes: community connection and quality of neighbourhoods; energy efficiency and climate change; fuel poverty and indoor temperature; household crowding; housing affordability; land ownership, value and development patterns; and ventilation and indoor air pollution. The collaborative learning process and the model have been useful for shifting the thinking of a wide range of housing stakeholders towards a more
Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.
Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management
La Loggia, Goffredo; Arnone, Elisa; Ciraolo, Giuseppe; Maltese, Antonino; Noto, Leonardo; Pernice, Umberto
This paper reports the first results of the Project SESAMO - SistEma informativo integrato per l'acquisizione, geStione e condivisione di dati AMbientali per il supportO alle decisioni (Integrated Information System for the acquisition, management and sharing of environmental data aimed to decision making). The main aim of the project is to design and develop an integrated environmental information platform able to provide monitoring services for decision support, integrating data from different environmental monitoring systems (including WSN). This ICT platform, based on a service-oriented architecture (SOA), will be developed to coordinate a wide variety of data acquisition systems, based on heterogeneous technologies and communication protocols, providing different sort of environmental monitoring services. The implementation and validation of the SESAMO platform and its services will involve three specific environmental domains: 1) Urban water losses; 2) Early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides; 3) Precision irrigation planning. Services in the first domain are enabled by a low cost sensors network collecting and transmitting data, in order to allow the pipeline network managers to analyze pressure, velocity and discharge data for reducing water losses in an urban contest. This paper outlines the SESAMO functional and technological structure and then gives a concise description of the service design and development process for the second and third domain. Services in the second domain are enabled by a prototypal early warning system able to identify in near-real time high-risk zones of rainfall-induced landslides. Services in the third domain are aimed to optimize irrigation planning of vineyards depending on plant water stress.
Rodriguez, Marko A.; Watkins, Jennifer H.
The ideals of the eighteenth century's Age of Enlightenment are the foundation of modern democracies. The era was characterized by thinkers who promoted progressive social reforms that opposed the long-established aristocracies and monarchies of the time. Prominent examples of such reforms include the establishment of inalienable human rights, self-governing republics, and market capitalism. Twenty-first century democratic nations can benefit from revisiting the systems developed during the E...
Vigil, S.A.; Holter, G.M.
Computer models have been used for almost a decade to model and analyze various aspects of solid waste management Commercially available models exist for estimating the capital and operating costs of landfills, waste-to-energy facilities and compost systems and for optimizing system performance along a single dimension (e.g. cost or transportation distance). An alternative to the use of currently available models is the more flexible macro material flow modeling approach in which a macro scale or regional level approach is taken. Waste materials are tracked through the complete integrated waste management cycle from generation through recycling and reuse, and finally to ultimate disposal. Such an approach has been applied by the authors to two different applications. The STELLA simulation language (for Macintosh computers) was used to model the solid waste management system of Puerto Rico. The model incorporated population projections for all 78 municipalities in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2010, solid waste generation factors, remaining life for the existing landfills, and projected startup time for new facilities. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory has used the SimScript simulation language (for Windows computers) to model the management of solid and hazardous wastes produced during cleanup and remediation activities at the Hanford Nuclear Site
Martin de Wit
Full Text Available The Sandveld region in the Western Cape is a low rainfall area dominated by agricultural production using groundwater resources. The rise in agricultural production in the Sandveld has led to questions regarding the region's ecological sustainability. We developed a system dynamics model for the Sandveld system which captures land-use change, agricultural production, and groundwater abstraction and recharge. Using this model, we find little evidence that pressures on livelihoods result, either currently or in the immediate future, from ecological feedback effects. The model does indicate that the highest risks are associated with the financial viability of agriculture, in its present form, in the region. With lower margins, a drive towards economies of scale in agricultural production is more likely in the future. This process has had severe implications in some sectors already, with a 39% decrease in the number of potato producers in the Sandveld region between 2003 and 2009. These results highlight that an integrated approach to agricultural, economic and environmental management and planning is needed to capture the economic and ecological complexity and dynamics of the Sandveld system.
FORSYTHE, JAMES C.; WENNER, CAREN A.
The history of high consequence accidents is rich with events wherein the actions, or inaction, of humans was critical to the sequence of events preceding the accident. Moreover, it has been reported that human error may contribute to 80% of accidents, if not more (dougherty and Fragola, 1988). Within the safety community, this reality is widely recognized and there is a substantially greater awareness of the human contribution to system safety today than has ever existed in the past. Despite these facts, and some measurable reduction in accident rates, when accidents do occur, there is a common lament. No matter how hard we try, we continue to have accidents. Accompanying this lament, there is often bewilderment expressed in statements such as, ''There's no explanation for why he/she did what they did''. It is believed that these statements are a symptom of inadequacies in how they think about humans and their role within technological systems. In particular, while there has never been a greater awareness of human factors, conceptual models of human involvement in engineered systems are often incomplete and in some cases, inaccurate
FORSYTHE,JAMES C.; WENNER,CAREN A.
The history of high consequence accidents is rich with events wherein the actions, or inaction, of humans was critical to the sequence of events preceding the accident. Moreover, it has been reported that human error may contribute to 80% of accidents, if not more (dougherty and Fragola, 1988). Within the safety community, this reality is widely recognized and there is a substantially greater awareness of the human contribution to system safety today than has ever existed in the past. Despite these facts, and some measurable reduction in accident rates, when accidents do occur, there is a common lament. No matter how hard we try, we continue to have accidents. Accompanying this lament, there is often bewilderment expressed in statements such as, ''There's no explanation for why he/she did what they did''. It is believed that these statements are a symptom of inadequacies in how they think about humans and their role within technological systems. In particular, while there has never been a greater awareness of human factors, conceptual models of human involvement in engineered systems are often incomplete and in some cases, inaccurate.
Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)
The importance of crew decision making to aviation safety has been well established through NTSB accident analyses: Crew judgment and decision making have been cited as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents in commercial air transport, general aviation, and military aviation. Yet the bulk of research on decision making has not proven helpful in improving the quality of decisions in the cockpit. One reason is that traditional analytic decision models are inappropriate to the dynamic complex nature of cockpit decision making and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions. A new model of dynamic naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove more useful for training or aiding cockpit decision making. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulation and National Transportation Safety Board accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation and reflect the crew's metacognitive skill. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relation between communication that serves to build performance. Implications of these findings for crew training will be discussed.
Westrom, G.; Vance, J.N.; Gelhaus, F.E.
The purpose of the Radwaste Decision Support System (RDSS) is to provide expert advice, analysis results and instructional material relative to the treatment, handling, transport and disposal of low-level radioactive waste produced in nuclear power plants. This functional specification addresses the following topics: Functions of the RDSS, Relationships and interfaces between the function, Development of the decisions and logic tree structures embodied in waste management, Elements of the database and the characteristics required to support the decision-making process, Specific User requirements for the RDSS, Development of the user interface, Basic software architecture, and Concepts for the RDSS usage including updating and maintenance
Mosqueda-Díaz, Angélica; Mendoza-Parra, Sara; Jofré-Aravena, Viviane
Decision making in health is a frequent situation, although potentially difficult, depending on patient/user characteristics and the context or the situation of health. This causes decisional conflicts in patients/users. The present study proposes to analyze the decision making process in health, conceptually, and nurses' contributions to understand and confront the phenomenon. The Ottawa the Model of Decisions Making in Health, proposed by Annette O'Connor, arises as a useful tool that enables nurses to carry out effective interventions with persons who face decision problems. Patients/users can assume a more active participation in the decisions on their own health.
Loukas, A.; Tzabiras, J.; Spiliotopoulos, M.; Kokkinos, K.; Fafoutis, C.; Mylopoulos, N.
The overall objective of this work is the development of a District Information System (DIS) which could be used by stakeholders for the purposes of a district day-to-day water management as well as for planning and strategic decisionmaking. The DIS was developed from a GIS-based modeling approach, which integrates a generic crop model and a hydraulic model of the transport/distribution system, using land use maps generated by Landsat TM imagery. The main sub-objectives are: (i) the development of an operational algorithm to retrieve crop evapotranspiration from remote sensing data, (ii) the development of an information system with friendly user interface for the data base, the crop module and the hydraulic module and (iii) the analysis and validation of management scenarios from model simulations predicting the respective behavior. The Lake Karla watershed is used in this study, but the overall methodology could be used as a basis for future analysis elsewhere. Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) was used to derive monthly actual evapotranspiration (ET) values from Landsat TM imagery. Meteorological data from the archives of the Institute for Research and Technology, Thessaly (I.RE.TE.TH) has also been used. The methodology was developed using high quality Landsat TM images during 2007 growing season. Monthly ET values are used as an input to CROPWAT model. Outputs of CROPWAT model are then used as input for WEAP model. The developed scenario is based on the actual situation of the surface irrigation network of the Local Administration of Land Reclamation (LALR) of Pinios for the year of 2007. The DIS is calibrated with observed data of this year and the district parameterization is conducted based on the actual operation of the network. The operation of the surface irrigation network of Pinios LALR is simulated using Technologismiki Works, while the operation of closed pipe irrigation network of Lake Karla LALR is simulated using Watercad. Four
Delikaraoglou, Stefanos; Pinson, Pierre
The large scale integration of wind generation in existing power systems requires novel operational strategies and market clearing mechanisms to account for the variable nature of this energy source. An efficient method to cope with this uncertainty is stochastic optimization which however requires......-valued and probabilistic predictions as well as scenarios representing the spatio-temporal dependence structure of forecast errors. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated with a small-scale stochastic unit commitment model....... high-quality forecasts in the form of scenarios. The main goal of this work is to release a public dataset of wind power forecasts to be used as a reference for future research. To that extent, we provide a complete framework to describe wind power uncertainty in terms of single...
harliana, Putri; Rahim, Robbi
Membership function is a curve that shows mapping the input data points into the value or degree of membership which has an interval between 0 and 1. One way to get membership value is through a function approach. There are some membership functions can be used on mamdani fuzzy inference system. They are triangular, trapezoid, singleton, sigmoid, Gaussian, etc. In this paper only discuss three membership functions, are triangular, trapezoid and Gaussian. These three membership functions will be compared to see the difference in parameter values and results obtained. For case study in this paper is admission of students at popular school. There are three variable can be used, they are students’ report, IQ score and parents’ income. Which will then be created if-then rules.
Lyles, Garry; Flores, Tim; Hundley, Jason; Monk, Timothy; Feldman, Stuart
The Space Shuttle program is ending and elements of the Constellation Program are either being cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. NASA is working diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond LEO large ]scale missions for the next several decades. Thus, multiple questions must be addressed: Which heavy lift vehicle will best allow the agency to achieve mission objectives in the most affordable and reliable manner? Which heavy lift vehicle will allow for a sufficiently flexible exploration campaign of the solar system? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will allow for minimizing risk in design, test, build and operations? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will be sustainable in changing political environments? Seeking to address these questions drove the development of an SLS decisionmaking framework. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, this framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing FOM-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper discusses the various methods of this process that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics. The end result was the identification of SLS launch vehicle candidates that could successfully meet the threshold requirements in support of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.
This book is about using business intelligence as a management information system for supporting managerial decision making. It concentrates primarily on practical business issues and demonstrates how to apply data warehousing and data analytics to support business decision making. This book progresses through a logical sequence, starting with data model infrastructure, then data preparation, followed by data analysis, integration, knowledge discovery, and finally the actual use of discovered knowledge. All examples are based on the most recent achievements in business intelligence. Finally this book outlines an overview of a methodology that takes into account the complexity of developing applications in an integrated business intelligence environment. This book is written for managers, business consultants, and undergraduate and postgraduates students in business administration.
cognitive load is associated with poorer decision- making ( Gonzalez , 2005). These findings suggest that measuring changes in pupil diameter could be...decision-making. Cerebral Cortex, 2013b. Cleotilde Gonzalez . Task workload and cognitive abilities in dynamic decision making. Hu- man Factors: The Journal...The past 25years. Vision research, 51(13):1457–1483, 2011. Olav E Krigolson, Lara J Pierce, Clay B Holroyd, and James W Tanaka. Learning to become
Mahmoud Motvaseli; Fariba Lotfizadeh
The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS) test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found th...
Rastiveis, H.; Samadzadegan, F.; Reinartz, P.
Recent studies have shown high resolution satellite imagery to be a powerful data source for post-earthquake damage assessment of buildings. Manual interpretation of these images, while being a reliable method for finding damaged buildings, is a subjective and time-consuming endeavor, rendering it unviable at times of emergency. The present research, proposes a new state-of-the-art method for automatic damage assessment of buildings using high resolution satellite imagery. In this method, at the first step a set of pre-processing algorithms are performed on the images. Then, extracting a candidate building from both pre- and post-event images, the intact roof part after an earthquake is found. Afterwards, by considering the shape and other structural properties of this roof part with its pre-event condition in a fuzzy inference system, the rate of damage for each candidate building is estimated. The results obtained from evaluation of this algorithm using QuickBird images of the December 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake prove the ability of this method for post-earthquake damage assessment of buildings.
Passingham, R E; Toni, I
It is widely accepted that the ventral visual pathways are involved in the identification of objects and the dorsal visual pathways in the visual guidance of reaching and grasping movements. But there are also situations, such as in a choice reaction time task, in which the subjects must select between actions on the basis of visual cues. This paper uses brain imaging to explore the pathways that are involved. Studies using PET and fMRI show that when subjects learn which actions are appropriate given the visual context, there are learning-related increases in the inferotemporal cortex and the ventral prefrontal cortex to which it projects. An event-related fMRI study shows that the activity in the inferotemporal cortex is time-locked to the presentation of the visual cue and the activity in the ventral prefrontal cortex to the response. Finally two PET studies directly compare the dorsal and ventral systems. In the second of these the subjects either move their finger on a moving target or identify the direction of movement and press one of two buttons to report the direction. When the subjects report the direction there is activity in the middle temporal gyrus and ventral prefrontal cortex. It is suggested that, when subjects must consciously identify the context and decide on the appropriate action, ventral pathways are involved. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.
Bossaerts, Peter; Murawski, Carsten
The rationality principle postulates that decision-makers always choose the best action available to them. It underlies most modern theories of decision-making. The principle does not take into account the difficulty of finding the best option. Here, we propose that computational complexity theory (CCT) provides a framework for defining and quantifying the difficulty of decisions. We review evidence showing that human decision-making is affected by computational complexity. Building on this evidence, we argue that most models of decision-making, and metacognition, are intractable from a computational perspective. To be plausible, future theories of decision-making will need to take into account both the resources required for implementing the computations implied by the theory, and the resource constraints imposed on the decision-maker by biology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Lettice, Fiona; Durowoju, Olatunde
Effective supply chain integration, and the tight co-ordination it creates, is an essential pre-requisite for successful supply chain management. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration is a practical reference on recent research in the area of supply chain integration focusing on distributed decision-making problems. Recent applications of various decision-making tools for integrating supply chains are covered including chapters focusing on: •Supplier selection, pricing strategy and inventory decisions in multi-level supply chains, •RFID-enabled distributed decision-making, •Operational risk issues and time-critical decision-making for sensitive logistics nodes, Modelling end to end processes to improve supply chain integration, and •Integrated systems to improve service delivery and optimize resource use. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration provides an insight into the tools and methodologies of this field with support from real-life case studies demonstrating successful application ...
Hansen, Claus Thorp; Andreasen, Mogens Myrup
In this paper we present the decision score, which is a model of decision-making seen in the engineering designer's perspective of the design process dynamics, where a decision has multiple objects and where it is based on earlier decisions, prediction of consequences and design process progression....... The model is based on four observations: the engineering designers do not see a neat string of distinct and explicitly made decisions, there are several decision-makers during design, a design decision is not made at a distinct moment in time, and the decision object is evolving in time and changing...... in context. We have successfully made an attempt to justify the model by confronting it with several empirical studies of design decision-making....
Reduction in prices now makes it possible for almost any institution to use computer graphics for administrative decision making and research. Current and potential uses of computer graphics in these two areas are discussed. (JN)
Balancing the polarized notions of quality and quantity of service and care is a challenge for the 21st century health and social service system. The expectation of transparent decision making at both the policy and the practice level of case management has forced practitioners to seek guidance in ethical decision making. Case management, as a system, has potential to lead this new practice approach by incorporating the principles of ethical decision making in planning and coordinating care. A recent case study of ethical decision making within the bureaucratic context offers some insight and learning and may help inform future practice.
Arwin Datumaya Wahyudi Sumari
Full Text Available Quick, accurate, and complete information is highly required for supporting strategically impact decision making in a Military Operation (MO in order to reduce the decision cycle and to minimize the loss. For that purpose, we propose, design and implement a hierarchical Multi Agent-based Information Fusion System for Decision Making Support (MAIFS-DMS. The information fusion is implemented by applying Maximum Score of the Total Sum of Joint Probabilities (MSJP fusion method and is done by a collection of Information Fusion Agents (IFA that forms a multiagent system. MAIFS uses a combination of generalization of Dasarathy and Joint Director’s Laboratory (JDL process models for information fusion mechanism. Information fusion products that are displayed in graphical forms provide comprehensive information regarding the MO area dynamics. By observing the graphics resulted from the information fusion, the commandant will have situational awareness and knowledge in order to make the most accurate strategic decision as fast as possible
Full Text Available It is not known whether patients with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME differ from healthy people in decision making under risk, i.e., when the decision-making context offers explicit information about options, probabilities, and consequences already from the beginning. In this study, we adopted the Game of Dice Task-Double to investigate decision making under risk in a group of 36 patients with JME (mean age 25.25/SD 5.29 years and a group of 38 healthy controls (mean age 26.03/SD 4.84 years. Participants also underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment focused on frontal executive functions. Significant group differences were found in tests of psychomotor speed and divided attention, with the patients scoring lower than the controls. Importantly, patients made risky decisions more frequently than controls. In the patient group, poor decision making was associated with poor executive control, poor response inhibition, and a short interval since the last seizure episode. Executive control and response inhibition could predict 42% of variance in the frequency of risky decisions. This study indicates that patients with JME with poorer executive functions are more likely to make risky decisions than healthy controls. Decision making under risk is of major importance in every-day life, especially with regard to treatment decisions and adherence to long-term medical therapy. Since even a single disadvantageous decision may have long-lasting consequences, this finding is of high relevance.
Daniel L. Schmoldt; David L. Peterson
Public land managers must treat multiple values coincidentally in time and space, which requires the participation of multiple resource specialists and consideration of diverse clientele interests in the decision process. This implies decision making that includes multiple participants, both internally and externally. Decades of social science research on decision...
Five types of decision-uncertainty are distinguished: uncertainty of consequences, of values, of demarcation, of reliance, and of co-ordination. Strategies are proposed for each type of uncertainty. The general conclusion is that it is meaningful for decision theory to treat cases with greater uncertainty than the textbook case of 'decision-making under uncertainty'. (au)
Rooij, M.M.J.W. van; Favela, L.H.; Papafragou, A.; Grodner, D.; Mirman, D.; Trueswell, J.
Dual-processing accounts of reasoning have gained renewed attention in the past decade, particularly in the fields of social judgment, learning, and decision-making under uncertainty. Although the various accounts differ, the common thread is the distinction between two qualitatively different types
Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Pachur, Thorsten; Giannakopoulos, Nikolaos Nikitas
Shared decision-making involves the participation of patient and dental practitioner. Well-informed decision-making requires that both parties understand important concepts that may influence the decision. This fourth article in a series of 4 aims to discuss the importance of patients' values when a clinical decision is made. We report on how to incorporate important concepts for well-informed, shared decision-making. Here, we present patient values as an important issue, in addition to previously established topics such as the risk of bias of a study, cost-effectiveness of treatment approaches, and a comparison of therapeutic benefit with potential side effects. We provide 2 clinical examples and suggestions for a decision tree, based on the available evidence. The information reported in this article may improve the relationship between patient and dental practitioner, resulting in more well-informed clinical decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain
Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.
van Vliet, Hans; Tang, Anthony
Traditionally, software architecture is seen as the result of the software architecture design process, the solution, usually represented by a set of components and connectors. Recently, the why of the solution, the set of design decisions made by the software architect, is complementing or even
Reynolds, Charles H.
Sound ethical decisions depend on clear problem definition, careful review of alternatives, consideration of consequences, and thoughtful application of relevant principles of responsibility. Often they also require a willingness to receive corrective insight and to check judgments with moral intuitions. Higher education has a special…
Uddin, Jasim; Sarma, Haribondhu; Bari, Tajul I.; Koehlmoos, Tracey P.
The understanding of the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines helps establish why vaccines are adopted or not. It also contributes to building a sustainable demand for vaccines in a country. The purpose of the study was to map and analyze the formal decision-making process in relation to the introduction of new vaccines within the context of health policy and health systems and identify the ways of making decisions to introduce new vaccines in Bangladesh. During Februar...
Agung Gita Subakti
Full Text Available In an organization, decision making hold an important role. That is why a decision made by managers should be a final decision that should be done by their subordinates or those who are related with the organization. In the effort to increase the quality of management information system, a research was held in X Resorts and Hotels Bandung to analyze management information system in the relation to decision making especially in Food and Beverage Service Department and recommendation of how to handle the problem occurred. From the questioner with data analyzing technique of spearman rank gained correlation result 0,84, with determination coefficient 71% which means the management information system has 71% level of influence to decision making, meanwhile the rest of the result (29% shows other factors, which also were related with the decision making other than management information system. To solve with the problem, it is recommended that X Resorts and Hotels decrease the level of information product error in management information used and fasten the delivery of provided information.
Fuzzy sets and interval analysis tools to make computations and solve optimisation problems are presented. Fuzzy and interval extensions of Decision Theory criteria for decision-making under parametric uncertainty of prior information (probabilities, payoffs) are developed. An interval probability approach to the mean-value criterion is proposed. (author)
Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Feng, Jun; Huang, Yonghua; Wei, Yazhou; Zhang, Weiwei
Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts, especially in medical decision making. Unfortunately, research is still inconsistent as to how so many variables impact framing effects in medical decision making. Additionally, much attention should be paid to the framing effect not only in hypothetical scenarios but also in clinical experience.
This document describes some parameters and fundamental criteria which should be taken into account by the safety authorities in the decision making. Added to these principles, internal procedures, devoted to an integrated framework of decision making, should be implemented. This presentation is based on the study realized by an experts Group of the Nuclear Energy Agency. (A.L.B.)
This thesis presents experimental research on deviations from the standard theory of decision-making under risk. It focuses on two types of situations in which they are likely to occur. In the first part, the case of individual decision making with delayed resolution of risk is considered. It is
Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Feng, Jun; Huang, Yonghua; Wei, Yazhou; Zhang, Weiwei
Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts, especially in medical decision making. Unfortunately, research is still inconsistent as to how so many variables impact framing effects in medical decision making. Additionally, much attention should be paid to the framing effect not only in hypothetical scenarios but also in clinical experience. PMID:27034630
Long, Arwen B.; Kuhn, Cynthia M.; Platt, Michael L.
Some people love taking risks, while others avoid gambles at all costs. The neural mechanisms underlying individual variation in preference for risky or certain outcomes, however, remain poorly understood. Although behavioral pathologies associated with compulsive gambling, addiction and other psychiatric disorders implicate deficient serotonin signaling in pathological decision making, there is little experimental evidence demonstrating a link between serotonin and risky decision making, in ...
Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras; Govindan, K.; Antucheviciene, Jurgita
Formal decision-making methods can be used to help improve the overall sustainability of industries and organisations. Recently, there has been a great proliferation of works aggregating sustainability criteria by using diverse multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. A number of revi...
The problem. Educational leaders face challenges in the 21st century, make numerous decisions daily, and have the choice to make decisions based on ethics. Educational leaders may follow a corporate model regarding expenses and revenues while ignoring the best interests of children and their academic achievement. The alternative to the corporate…
Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.
A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.
V. I. Yukalov; D. Sornette
The influence of additional information on the decision making of agents, who are interacting members of a society, is analyzed within the mathematical framework based on the use of quantum probabilities. The introduction of social interactions, which influence the decisions of individual agents, leads to a generalization of the quantum decision theory developed earlier by the authors for separate individuals. The generalized approach is free of the standard paradoxes of classical decision th...
Decision has inspired reflection of many thinkers since the ancient times. With the rapid development of science and society, appropriate dynamic decision making has been playing an increasingly important role in many areas of human activity including engineering, management, economy and others. In most real-world problems, decision makers usually have to make decisions sequentially at different points in time and space, at different levels for a component or a system, while facing multiple and conflicting objectives and a hybrid uncertain environment where fuzziness and randomness co-exist in a decision making process. This leads to the development of fuzzy-like multiple objective multistage decision making. This book provides a thorough understanding of the concepts of dynamic optimization from a modern perspective and presents the state-of-the-art methodology for modeling, analyzing and solving the most typical multiple objective multistage decision making practical application problems under fuzzy-like un...
Kirby, Ann; Murphy, Aileen; Bradley, Colin
Purpose Internationally, healthcare systems are moving towards delivering care in an integrated manner which advocates a multi-disciplinary approach to decision making. Such an approach is formally encouraged in the management of Atrial Fibrillation patients through the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. Since the emergence of new oral anticoagulants switching between oral anticoagulants (OACs) has become prevalent. This case study considers the role of multi-disciplinary decision making, given the complex nature of the agents. The purpose of this paper is to explore Irish General Practitioners' (GPs) experience of switching between all OACs for Arial Fibrillation (AF) patients; prevalence of multi-disciplinary decision making in OAC switching decisions and seeks to determine the GP characteristics that appear to influence the likelihood of multi-disciplinary decision making. Design/methodology/approach A probit model is used to determine the factors influencing multi-disciplinary decision making and a multinomial logit is used to examine the factors influencing who is involved in the multi-disciplinary decisions. Findings Results reveal that while some multi-disciplinary decision-making is occurring (64 per cent), it is not standard practice despite international guidelines on integrated care. Moreover, there is a lack of patient participation in the decision-making process. Female GPs and GPs who have initiated prescriptions for OACs are more likely to engage in multi-disciplinary decision-making surrounding switching OACs amongst AF patients. GPs with training practices were less likely to engage with cardiac consultants and those in urban areas were more likely to engage with other (non-cardiac) consultants. Originality/value For optimal decision making under uncertainty multi-disciplinary decision-making is needed to make a more informed judgement and to improve treatment decisions and reduce the opportunity cost of making the wrong decision.
Full Text Available People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.
Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael
People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448
Podrasky, A.; Covitt, B. A.; Woessner, W.
The availability of clean water to support human uses and ecological integrity has become an urgent interest for many scientists, decision makers and citizens. Likewise, as computational capabilities increasingly revolutionize and become integral to the practice of science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) disciplines, the STEM+ Computing (STEM+C) Partnerships program seeks to integrate the use of computational approaches in K-12 STEM teaching and learning. The Comp Hydro project, funded by a STEM+C grant from the National Science Foundation, brings together a diverse team of scientists, educators, professionals and citizens at sites in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland and Montana to foster water literacy, as well as computational science literacy, by integrating authentic, place- and data- based learning using physical, mathematical, computational and conceptual models. This multi-state project is currently engaging four teams of six teachers who work during two academic years with educators and scientists at each site. Teams work to develop instructional units specific to their region that integrate hydrologic science and computational modeling. The units, currently being piloted in high school earth and environmental science classes, provide a classroom context to investigate student understanding of how computation is used in Earth systems science. To develop effective science instruction that is rich in place- and data- based learning, effective collaborations between researchers, educators, scientists, professionals and citizens are crucial. In this poster, we focus on project implementation in Montana, where an instructional unit has been developed and is being tested through collaboration among University scientists, researchers and educators, high school teachers and agency and industry scientists and engineers. In particular, we discuss three characteristics of effective collaborative science education design for developing and implementing place- and
Ramos Pozón, Sergio
In this paper we analyze the process of the surrogate decision making in schizophrenic patients. First, we rely on a number of ethical principles that will guide the surrogate decision making. Second, we analyze which are the legal rules about guardianship and conservatorship. Third, we expose some action rules for the trial for substitution. Fourth, we develop some norms for the intervention that impose limit to substitutes. Finally, we make a proposal about who is best trained to represent ...
Crow, Stephen M.; And Others
Linkages among gender, decision making, and values related to moral development and equity/equality are studied for 54 graduate and 186 undergraduate business school students (48 percent females) attending a Southern urban university. Results illustrate gender-related differences in value systems, weights of decision issues, and decisions. Future…
Providing insight and understanding of practical and methodological issues related to decision-making processes under uncertainty conditions in the service industries, this book integrates decision-making tools with real-world examples to present world-wide best practices as well as theoretical and applied strategies such as the use of hybrid and stochastic algorithms. It discusses emerging tendencies regarding decision-support systems and information systems to support decision-making in real scenarios and includes up-to-date research on how probabilistic algorithms and simulation-based appro
Malik, Har G. S.
The hypotheses tested that (1) anxiety and (2) extraversion (exvia) would be negatively related to career making ability. Variables defined as contributing to anxiety included ego weakness, excitability, low superego strength, threat sensitivity and high ergic tension. Extraversion was considered the "general tendency to social interaction" with…
Kroese, G.J.; Staring, R.H.J.M.
This is a summary of a research into the motives of (bank) robbers and the choices they make. Information is presented on the offender's backgrounds, criminal careers, goals and typology, preparation and way of conduction of the robbery, the escape, opions of robbers, social organization and
part in and influence his/her daily life, the child is not seen as a becoming but as a being. Theoretical foundation and practical examples will be given, and the chapter will explore not only how to bring up children as active democrats but also how to encourage them from early age to make use...
Full Text Available Supported decision-making is at the forefront of modern disability research. This is due to Article 12 of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD, which creates a state obligation to provide support for the exercise of legal capacity. This turned the practice of supported decision-making into a human rights imperative. Government and funding agencies are increasingly focusing their attention on the area. Researchers are similarly increasing their interest in the field. The impending danger is that the rush of interest in the area will overshadow the original intention of supported decision-making: to ensure that people with cognitive disability are provided with the freedom and the tools to participate as equal citizens and for every individual to be free to direct their own life. This article explores the theoretical foundations of supported decision-making and the evolution of supported decision-making research. It explains the research that is emerging in leading jurisdictions, the United States and Australia, and its potential to transform disability services and laws related to decision-making. Finally, it identifies areas of concern in the direction of such research and provides recommendations for ensuring that supported decision-making remains protective of the rights, will and preferences of people with cognitive disability.
Parker, Walter C.; Gehrke, Nathalie
Interactive decision making (IDM) refers to teachers' selection and rejection of alternative courses of action during instruction. Previous research indicates that teachers report making interactive decisions when their plans are disrupted. A study generated hypotheses about teachers' IDM using the grounded theory approach--an inductive system for…
Webb, G.A.M.; McLean, A.S.
In this report the arguments are developed for the existence of low levels of risk and dose which the individual does not take into account in his decision making, i.e. which are 'insignificant'. A system is proposed for ignoring these insignificant doses in calculating collective doses for use in practical decision making. (author)
Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H A; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J
This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....
Søndergaard, Erik Stefan; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema
Many engineering companies experience new challenges when globalising product development. Global product development (GPD) is a relatively nascent research area, and previous research reveals the need for decision support frameworks. This research investigates how decisions are made when companies...... outsource or offshore product development tasks, and how these decisions can be improved. A brief literature review on existing research on GPD and decision making is given, followed by two case studies, where implications of decisions are investigated. The findings point towards further studies required...
Full Text Available The relationships between personality and career decision making in undergraduates are analyzed in this work. The hypothesis is that efficient personality is associated with the more mature process of career decision making. For this hypothesis, the Questionnaire of Efficient Personality and the Inventory of Career Factors was administered to 497 students in their final year of undergraduate school. The collected data was put under factorial analysis, analysis of differences of averages, and analysis of variance. The results confirm that an effective personality is tied to career decision making based as much on one´s knowledge of oneself as an understanding of the working world.
Woodhouse, C. A.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.; Garfin, G. M.; Scott, C. A.
As society is confronted with population growth, limited resources, and the impacts of climate variability and change, it is vital that institutions of higher education promote the development of professionals who can work with decision-makers to incorporate scientific information into environmental planning and management. Skills for the communication of science are essential, but equally important is the ability to understand decision-making contexts and engage with resource managers and policy makers. It is increasingly being recognized that people who understand the linkages between science and decision making are crucial if science is to better support planning and policy. A new graduate-level seminar, "Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making," is a core course for a new post-baccalaureate certificate program, Connecting Environmental Science and Decision Making at the University of Arizona. The goal of the course is to provide students with a basic understanding of the dynamics between scientists and decision makers that result in scientific information being incorporated into environmental planning, policy, and management decisions. Through readings from the environmental and social sciences, policy, and planning literature, the course explores concepts including scientific information supply and demand, boundary organizations, co-production of knowledge, platforms for engagement, and knowledge networks. Visiting speakers help students understand some of the challenges of incorporating scientific information into planning and decision making within institutional and political contexts. The course also includes practical aspects of two-way communication via written, oral, and graphical presentations as well as through the interview process to facilitate the transfer of scientific information to decision makers as well as to broader audiences. We aspire to help students develop techniques that improve communication and
Chen-Shu Wang; Heng-Li Yang; Shiang-Lin Lin
Decision making is a recursive process and usually involves multiple decision criteria. However, such multiple criteria decision making may have a problem in which partial decision criteria may conflict with each other. An information technology, such as the decision support system (DSS) and group DSS (GDSS), emerges to assist decision maker for decision-making process. Both the DSS and GDSS should integrate with a symmetrical approach to assist decision maker to take all decision criteria in...
Keith M. Reynolds; Daniel L. Schmoldt
Several major classes of software technologies have been used in decisionmaking for forest management applications over the past few decades. These computer-based technologies include mathematical programming, expert systems, network models, multi-criteria decisionmaking, and integrated systems. Each technology possesses unique advantages and disadvantages, and has...
Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen
Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement
Full Text Available Range of investment decision is wide from the size point of view. It ranges from minor investment for changing technological operations to huge investments in building new capacities which need both domestic and foreign funds. Decision risk is proportional with the amount of investment, but it does not depend only on amount. For those investment research for decision making must be adequate
Pristed Nielsen, Helene
Based on theories of public sphere participation and deliberative democracy, this book presents empirical results from a study of experiences with including Aboriginal and Maori groups in political decision-making in respectively Western Australia and New Zealand...
Van Vo, Dut; Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd; de Jong, Gjalt
This paper investigates how decision-making autonomy affects the possibility and intensity of innovation in subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Subsidiaries are increasingly identified as sources of innovation and as vehicles for cross-border transfer of new competences. The question...... of how much decision-making autonomy subsidiaries should have is a core issue in the management of headquarters-subsidiary relationships. Using two complementary theoretical perspectives, we hypothesize a non-linear relationship between subsidiary’s decision-making autonomy and innovation. We test our...... hypothesis in a multi-country and multiindustry database based on survey evidence of 134 subsidiaries located in five Central and Eastern European countries from 23 home countries. The empirical results provide support for a non-linear U shaped relationship between subsidiary decision-making autonomy...
Aalbers, H.L.; Whelan, E.; Parise, S.; Vialle, C.
The article focuses on the organizational decision-making management. Topics mentioned include the development of enterprise social software (ESS), the online corporate communities management, and the project management. Also mentioned are the importance of customer services, the bankruptcy
Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Kaplan, Brent A
As research on decision making in addiction accumulates, it is increasingly clear that decision-making processes are dysfunctional in addiction and that this dysfunction may be fundamental to the initiation and maintenance of addictive behavior. How drug-dependent individuals value and choose among drug and nondrug rewards is consistently different from non-dependent individuals. The present review focuses on the assessment of decision-making in addiction. We cover the common behavioral tasks that have shown to be fruitful in decision-making research and highlight analytical and graphical considerations, when available, to facilitate comparisons within and among studies. Delay discounting tasks, drug demand tasks, drug choice tasks, the Iowa Gambling Task, and the Balloon Analogue Risk Task are included. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Hess, Søren; Bjerring, Ole Steen; Pfeiffer, Per
and initial stages. This article outlines the potential use of fluorodeoxyglucose-PET/CT in clinical decision making with special regard to preoperative evaluation and response assessment in gastric cancer (including the gastroesophageal junction), pancreatic cancer (excluding neuroendocrine tumors...
Dec 1, 2017 ... all the decisions, and I am in agreement with this arrangement, then according to some ethicists, it is considered autonomous behaviour to let my partner make decisions on my behalf. We know that there are many subconscious influences at play when one consents to a procedure or operation, yet when ...
Veksler, Vladislav D.; Gray, Wayne D.; Schoelles, Michael J.
Reinforcement learning (RL) models of decision-making cannot account for human decisions in the absence of prior reward or punishment. We propose a mechanism for choosing among available options based on goal-option association strengths, where association strengths between objects represent previously experienced object proximity. The proposed…
Rilling, J.K.; Sanfey, A.G.
Given that we live in highly complex social environments, many of our most important decisions are made in the context of social interactions. Simple but sophisticated tasks from a branch of experimental economics known as game theory have been used to study social decision-making in the laboratory
Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.
The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…
Santos, Eugene; Nguyen, Hien; Russell, Jacob; Kim, Keumjoo; Veenhuis, Luke; Boparai, Ramnjit; Stautland, Thomas Kristoffer
A Commander's decision making style represents how he weighs his choices and evaluates possible solutions with regards to his goals. Specifically, in the naval warfare domain, it relates the way he processes a large amount of information in dynamic, uncertain environments, allocates resources, and chooses appropriate actions to pursue. In this paper, we describe an approach to capture a Commander's decision style by creating a cognitive model that captures his decisionmaking process and evaluate this model using a set of scenarios using an online naval warfare simulation game. In this model, we use the Commander's past behaviors and generalize Commander's actions across multiple problems and multiple decision making sequences in order to recommend actions to a Commander in a manner that he may have taken. Our approach builds upon the Double Transition Model to represent the Commander's focus and beliefs to estimate his cognitive state. Each cognitive state reflects a stage in a Commander's decision making process, each action reflects the tasks that he has taken to move himself closer to a final decision, and the reward reflects how close he is to achieving his goal. We then use inverse reinforcement learning to compute a reward for each of the Commander's actions. These rewards and cognitive states are used to compare between different styles of decision making. We construct a set of scenarios in the game where rational, intuitive and spontaneous decision making styles will be evaluated.
Cabrera, Lidia; Bethencourt, José-Tomás
The relationships between personality and career decision making in undergraduates are analyzed in this work. The hypothesis is that efficient personality is associated with the more mature process of career decision making. For this hypothesis, the Questionnaire of Efficient Personality and the Inventory of Career Factors was administered to 497 students in their final year of undergraduate school. The collected data was put under factorial analysis, analysis of differences of averages, and ...
At Darlington Nuclear aggregate assessment of plant conditions is carried out in support of Operational Decision Making. This paper discusses how aggregate assessments have been applied to Operator Workarounds leading to improved prioritisation and alignment of work programs in different departments. As well, aggregate assessment of plant and human performance factors has been carried out to identify criteria which support conservative decision making in the main control room during unit transients. (author)
Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...
Ross-Gillespie, Adin; Kümmerli, Rolf
Microbes are intensely social organisms that routinely cooperate and coordinate their activities to express elaborate population-level phenotypes. Such coordination requires a process of collective decision-making, in which individuals detect and collate information not only from their physical environment, but also from their social environment, in order to arrive at an appropriately calibrated response. Here, we present a conceptual overview of collective decision-making as it applies to al...
Madsen, Henrik; Albeanu, Grigore; Burtschy, Bernard
Decision making addresses the usage of various methods to select "the best", in some way, alternative strategy (from many available) when a problem is given for solving. The authors propose the usage of neutrosophic way of thinking, called also Smarandache's logic, to select a model by experts when...... degrees of trustability, ultrastability (falsehood), and indeterminacy are used to decide. The procedures deal with multi-attribute neutrosophic decision making and a case study on e-learning software objects is presented....
1) in the present context. person two-criteria stochastic decision problems with scacic information patterns and an asymetric mode of A problem...Trans. n Automatic Control, AC-2i, ’ 54-o90. okoto-,.:i P. 3. Cruz, T.. .. E. .eller and P. Sannuti (1468). Synthesis of )otimallv sensitive systems
Brown, Stephen B R E; Ridderinkhof, K Richard
Neuroeconomics refers to a combination of paradigms derived from neuroscience, psychology, and economics for the study of decision making and is an area that has received considerable scientific attention in the recent literature. Using realistic laboratory tasks, researchers seek to study the neurocognitive processes underlying economic decision making and outcome-based decision learning, as well as individual differences in these processes and the social and affective factors that modulate them. To this point, one question has remained largely unanswered: What happens to decision-making processes and their neural substrates during aging? After all, aging is associated with neurocognitive change, which may affect outcome-based decision making. In our study, we use the subjective expected utility model-a well-established decision-making model in economics-as a descriptive framework. After a short survey of the brain areas and neurotransmitter systems associated with outcome-based decision making-and of the effects of aging thereon-we review a number of decision-making studies. Their general data pattern indicates that the decision-making process is changed by age: The elderly perform less efficiently than younger participants, as demonstrated, for instance, by the smaller total rewards that the elderly acquire in lab tasks. These findings are accounted for in terms of age-related deficiencies in the probability and value parameters of the subjective expected utility model. Finally, we discuss some implications and suggestions for future research.
Bednarek, A.; Close, S.; Curran, K.; Hudson, C.
Addressing contemporary sustainability challenges requires attention to the integration of scientific knowledge into decision-making and deliberation. However, this remains a challenge in practice. We contend that careful stewardship of this process of integration can result in positive, durable outcomes by reconciling the production and use of scientific knowledge, and improve its relevance and utility to decision-makers. We will share lessons learned from a grantmaking program that has addressed this challenge through programmatic innovations, including by supporting staff devoted to an intermediary role. Over the past 13 years, the Lenfest Ocean Program served in a boundary spanning role by integrating decision-makers into the scoping and outreach of program supported scientific research grants. Program staff engage with decision-makers and influencers to identify policy-relevant research questions and approaches, ensuring that the research direction addresses users' needs. As research progresses, the staff monitor the grant's progress to improve the match between the research and user needs. The process is resource-intensive, however, and raises interesting questions about the role and development of this kind of specialist within different kinds of institutions, including funding agencies. We suggest that nurturing this role as a practice and profession could ultimately help the scientific community more efficiently respond to sustainability challenges.
collective foraging (self-propelled interacting particles) within an evolutionary framework, and tools from dynamical systems theory , statistical... Biology , (01 2013): 1002894. doi: Andrew Berdahl, Colin J. Torney, Emmanuel Schertzer, Simon A. Levin. On the evolutionary interplay between dispersal...American Control Conference Panel on Biocomplexity, DARPA Workshop, New York City Invited lecture, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Department
Broche-Pérez, Y; Herrera Jiménez, L F; Omar-Martínez, E
Decision-making is the process of selecting a course of action from among 2 or more alternatives by considering the potential outcomes of selecting each option and estimating its consequences in the short, medium and long term. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) has traditionally been considered the key neural structure in decision-making process. However, new studies support the hypothesis that describes a complex neural network including both cortical and subcortical structures. The aim of this review is to summarise evidence on the anatomical structures underlying the decision-making process, considering new findings that support the existence of a complex neural network that gives rise to this complex neuropsychological process. Current evidence shows that the cortical structures involved in decision-making include the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). This process is assisted by subcortical structures including the amygdala, thalamus, and cerebellum. Findings to date show that both cortical and subcortical brain regions contribute to the decision-making process. The neural basis of decision-making is a complex neural network of cortico-cortical and cortico-subcortical connections which includes subareas of the PFC, limbic structures, and the cerebellum. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H
Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.
Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.
Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.
Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.
Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases
El-Sawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J.
This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation
Full Text Available The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward, the reward value of the decision outcome, which guided the update of value for each choice, is unknown beforehand. To estimate the reward value of emotional pictures from participants’ choice data, we used reinforcement learning models that have success- fully been used in previous studies for modeling value-based decision making. Consequently, we found that the estimated reward value was asymmetric between positive and negative pictures. The negative reward value of negative pictures (relative to neutral pictures was larger in magnitude than the positive reward value of positive pictures. This asymmetry was not observed in valence for an individual picture, which was rated by the participants regarding the emotion experienced upon viewing it. These results suggest that there may be a difference between experienced emotion and the effect of the experienced emotion on subsequent behavior. Our experimental and computational paradigm provides a novel way for quantifying how and what aspects of emotional events affect human behavior. The present study is a first step toward relating a large amount of knowledge in emotion science and in taking computational approaches to value-based decision making.
Simari, Gerardo I.; Parsons, Simon D.
Making rational decisions is one of the key elements in the design of autonomous agents with successful behavior. Even though there have been many proposals for the support of decision making, most of them can be described either as descriptive or prescriptive. The main goal of our work is to establish the relationship between two of these models, namely bdi and mdps, in order to gain further understanding of how decisions in one model are viewed from the point of view of the other. This goal...
Full Text Available Celia Deane-Drummond's case for wisdom as an approach to ethical decision making and her doubts about case-oriented methodology are critiqued with reference to the SRT Project's Engineering Genesis study. Its approach is explored in practical decisions on various real life examples of genetic modification in crops and animals. It involved both intrinsic and consequential approaches, and identified key value positions behind different policies and stakeholders. The paper also clarifies the relationship between reactive (cost-benefit and precautionary risk assessment, explaining their strengths and limitations, and the role of underlying values in both forms of risk decision making.
The nature of retailer buying is changing, but not so our conceptualisations. Existing literature on retailer buying is characterised by a rather narrow focus on what retail buyers decide and which decision criteria they use to make decisions, whereas comparatively little attention has been devoted...... to the processes of how and why certain decisions are made. This paper aims to move beyond a focus on single decisions as discrete events to viewing retailer buying as something that occurs in ongoing relationally-responsive interaction between retailers and suppliers....
Marble, Julie Lynne; Medema, Heather Dawne; Hill, Susan Gardiner
Eight participants were asked to view a computer-based multimedia presentation on an environmental phenomenon. Participants were asked to play a role as a senior aide to a national legislator. In this role, they were told that the legislator had asked them to review a multimedia presentation regarding the hypoxic zone phenomenon in the Gulf of Mexico. Their task in assuming the role of a senior aide was to decide how important a problem this issue was to the United States as a whole, and the proportion of the legislator’s research budget that should be devoted to study of the problem. The presentation was divided into 7 segments, each containing some new information not contained in the previous segments. After viewing each segment, participants were asked to indicate how close they were to making a decision and how certain they were that their current opinion would be their final decision. After indicating their current state of decision-making, participants were interviewed regarding the factors affecting their decision-making. Of interest was the process by which participants moved toward a decision. This experiment revealed a number of possible directions for future research. There appeared to be two approaches to decision-making: Some decision-makers moved steadily toward a decision, and occasionally reversed decisions after viewing information, while others abruptly reached a decision after a certain time period spent reviewing the information. Although the difference in estimates of distance to decisions did not differ statistically for these two groups, that difference was reflected in the participants’ estimates of confidence that their current opinion would be their final decision. The interviews revealed that the primary difference between these two groups was in their trade-offs between willingness to spend time in information search and the acquisition of new information. Participants who were less confident about their final decision, tended to be
Espinoza, Manuel Antonio; Manca, Andrea; Claxton, Karl; Sculpher, Mark
Evidence about cost-effectiveness is increasingly being used to inform decisions about the funding of new technologies that are usually implemented as guidelines from centralized decision-making bodies. However, there is also an increasing recognition for the role of patients in determining their preferred treatment option. This paper presents a method to estimate the value of implementing a choice-based decision process using the cost-effectiveness analysis toolbox. This value is estimated for 3 alternative scenarios. First, it compares centralized decisions, based on population average cost-effectiveness, against a decision process based on patient choice. Second, it compares centralized decision based on patients' subgroups versus an individual choice-based decision process. Third, it compares a centralized process based on average cost-effectiveness against a choice-based process where patients choose according to a different measure of outcome to that used by the centralized decision maker. The methods are applied to a case study for the management of acute coronary syndrome. It is concluded that implementing a choice-based process of treatment allocation may be an option in collectively funded health systems. However, its value will depend on the specific health problem and the social values considered relevant to the health system. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Chang, Wen; Liu, Hsueh-Erh; Goopy, Suzanne; Chen, Li-Chin; Chen, Hsiao-Jung; Han, Chin-Yen
Triage classifies and prioritizes patients' care based on the acuity of the illness in emergency departments (EDs). In Taiwan, the five-level Taiwan Triage and Acuity Scale (TTAS) computerized system was implemented nationally in 2010. The purpose of this study was to understand which factors affect decision-making practices of triage nurses in the light of the implementation of the new TTAS tool and computerized system. The qualitative data were collected by in-depth interviews. Data saturation was reached with 16 participants. Content analysis was used. The results demonstrated that the factors affecting nurses' decision making in the light of the newly implemented computerized system sit within three main categories: external environmental, patients' health status, and nurses' experiences. This study suggests ensuring the patient's privacy while attending the triage desk, improving the critical thinking of triage nurses, and strengthening the public's understanding of the ED visits. These will make ED triage more efficient.
Full Text Available Abstract. The study aims to analyze the existing system situation of the project, to compare it with the ideal system situation, and to propose the intervention to close the gap between the two system situations. The analysis method used to map the situations is the causal loop diagram. The study combines primary data using interviews and secondary data analyses on literature, government regulations, reports, and related sources. The findings of the study suggest that an obstacle of the project completion which should be considered seriously is the legal uncertainty. Root causes of this problem are the ambiguity of decision makers’ roles, bounded-awareness occurrence, and the influence of the hidden traps on decision-making. Therefore solutions are proposed to solve the situation and transform it into the ideal system situation: decision makers roles are clarified, every sector or stakeholder is able to see, seek, use, and share integrated information properly, and every efficient decision made is implemented appropriately into actions. Keywords: decision-making, bounded awareness, hidden traps, integrated system, legal uncertainly, mega-project
Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.
In the aftermath of seismic debacles like those that toppled Enron and WorldCom, corporate boards have been shaken up and made over. More directors are independent these days, for instance, and corporations now disclose directors' salaries and committee members' names. Research shows that most of the changes are having a positive effect on companies' performance. They are primarily structural, though, and don't go to the heart of a board's work: making the choices that shape a firm's future. Which decisions boards own and how those calls are made are largely hidden from the public. As a result, boards are often unable to learn from the best governance practices of their counterparts at other companies. This article pulls back the curtain and provides an inside look. Drawing on interviews with board members and executives at 31 companies, along with a close examination of three boardroom decisions, the author identifies several formal processes that can help companies improve their decision making: creating calendars that specify when the board and the standing committees will consider key items; drafting charters that define the decisions committees are responsible for; and developing decision protocols that divvy up responsibilities between directors and executives. The author also identifies a number of informal decision-making principles: Items that are strategically significant and touch on the firm's core values should go to the board. Large decisions should be divided into small pieces, so the board can devote sufficient attention to each one. Directors must remain vigilant to ensure that their decisions are effectively implemented. The CEO and either the nonexecutive chair or the lead director should engage in ongoing dialogue regarding which decisions to take to the full board and when. And directors should challenge assumptions before making yes-or-no decisions on management proposals.
Chen, Wei-Ling; Kan, Chung-Dann; Lin, Chia-Hung; Chen, Tainsong
This paper proposes a rule-based decision-making diagnosis system to evaluate arteriovenous shunt (AVS) stenosis for long-term hemodialysis treatment of patients using fuzzy petri nets (FPNs). AVS stenoses are often associated with blood sounds, resulting from turbulent flow over the narrowed blood vessel. Phonoangiography provides a noninvasive technique to monitor the sounds of the AVS. Since the power spectra changes in frequency and amplitude with the degree of AVS stenosis, it is difficult to make a human-made decision to judge the degree using a combination of those variances. The Burg autoregressive (AR) method is used to estimate the frequency spectra of a phonoangiographic signal and identify the characteristic frequencies. A rule-based decision-making method, FPNs, is designed as a decision-making system to evaluate the degree of stenosis (DOS) in routine examinations. For 42 long-term follow-up patients, the examination results show the proposed diagnosis system has greater efficiency in evaluating AVS stenosis.
Dwight, Alice Heasley
Essex Community College (Maryland) has instituted a one-credit course in career decision-making. The course is designed to aid the college student and the older adult in making a career-oriented assessment of personality needs, capacities, interests, and values with additional emphasis on local and national manpower needs. (Author/DC)
Bals, Lydia; Kneis, Kyra; Lemke, Christine
the decision making process on R&D outsourcing are lacking. To address this gap, we present a framework developed in the context of a multinational pharmaceutical company. The framework builds on general make-or-buy frameworks and incorporates specificities of the service and knowledge-driven areas...
Rogerson, Mark D.; Gottlieb, Michael C.; Handelsman, Mitchell M.; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey
Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasi-legal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior,…
Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Jaffray, Jean-Yves
Non-expected utility theories, such as rank dependent utility (RDU) theory, have been proposed as alternative models to EU theory in decision making under risk. These models do not share the separability property of expected utility theory. This implies that, in a decision tree, if the reduction...... of compound lotteries assumption is made (so that preferences at each decision node reduce to RDU preferences among lotteries) and that preferences at different decision nodes are identical (same utility function and same weighting function), then the preferences are not dynamically consistent; in particular......, the sophisticated strategy, i.e., the strategy generated by a standard rolling back of the decision tree, is likely to be dominated w.r.t. stochastic dominance. Dynamic consistency of choices remains feasible, and the decision maker can avoid dominated choices, by adopting a non-consequentialist behavior, with his...
Nicolae Paul Virag
Full Text Available In this work it is shown how the information provided by financial accounting information system used in the decision making process of the entities management. It also presents the implications of their use in planning and investments. Financial information are built in order to respond to the management for decision making, but also to meet the information needs of other external or internal users. In this respect it is presented the accounting information system and the qualitative features and the manner in which is built to have real value for planning, control and decision making.
St John, C.
Scientific information about climate change and other human impacts on the environment are increasingly available and sought after (often in the form of probabilistic forecasts or technical information related to engineering solutions). However, it is increasingly apparent that there are barriers to the use of this information by decision makers - either from its lack of application altogether, its usability for people without scientific backgrounds, or its ability to inform sound decisions and widespread behavior change. While the argument has been made that an information deficit is to blame, we argue that there is also a motivation deficit contributing to a lack of understanding of information about climate change impacts and solutions. Utilizing insight from over thirty years of research in social and cognitive psychology, in addition to other social sciences, the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) seeks to understand how people make environmental decisions under conditions of uncertainty, and how these decisions can be improved. This presentation will focus specifically on recent research that has come forth since the 2009 publication of CRED's popular guide 'The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public.' Utilizing case studies from real world examples, this talk will explore how decision making can be improved through a better understanding of how people perceive and process uncertainty and risk. It will explore techniques such as choice architecture and 'nudging' behavior change, how social goals and group participation affect decision making, and how framing of environmental information influences mitigative behavior.
Ferrada, J.J.; Welch, T.D.; Osborne-Lee, I.W.; Nehls, J.W. Jr.
Systems analysis methods and tools have been developed and applied to the problem of selecting treatment technologies for mixed wastes. The approach, which is based on decision analysis, process modeling, and process simulation with a tool developed in-house, provides a one-of-a-kind resource for waste treatment alternatives evaluation and has played a key role in developing mandated treatment plans for Oak Ridge Reservation mixed waste
Cruz, Magda RR; Martins, Cristina; Dias, Jo?o; Pinto, Jos? S
Background Bariatric surgery is an important method for treatment of morbid obesity. It is known that significant nutritional deficiencies might occur after surgery, such as, calorie-protein malnutrition, iron deficiency anemia, and lack of vitamin B12, thiamine, and folic acid. Objective The objective of our study was to validate a computerized intelligent decision support system that suggests nutritional diagnoses of patients submitted to bariatric surgery. Methods There were fifteen clinic...
This paper considers the influence of a range of factors within and around the firm on business decision making relating to the environment. Within the firm, it emphasises the importance of governance structures, corporate cultures and organisational capacities. Around the firm, it stresses the importance of the incentives, imperatives and informational pressures that emerge from governments, markets and civil society. It is argued that change is most likely where the various external pressures resonate with each other, and where they impact upon firms with receptive corporate cultures and adequate organisational capacities. It is also argued that these preconditions for change are often absent, which makes change more difficult or more expensive. It is further argued that even when these preconditions are in place, they are likely to engender only to incremental change. As prolonged periods of incremental change must eventually encounter diminishing returns, the key challenge for those seeking to promote significant changes in business behaviour is to put in place the full range of conditions needed to allow companies to make them. This can mean focusing not only on the operational but also on the strategic activities of businesses, and not only on individual businesses but also on the broader systems and networks within which they operate. (author)
Medicine is incorporating genetic services into all avenues of health-care, ranging from the rarest to the most common diseases. Cognitive theories of decision-making still dominate professionals' understanding of patient decision-making about how to use genetic information and whether to have testing. I discovered a conceptual model of decision-making while carrying out a phenomenological-hermeneutic descriptive study of a convenience sample of 12 couples who were interviewed while deciding whether to undergo prenatal genetic testing. Thirty-two interviews were conducted with 12 men and 12 women separately. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and all data were analyzed using three levels of coding that were sorted into 30 categories and then abstracted into three emergent meta-themes that described men's and women's attempts to make sense and find meaning in how to best use prenatal genetic technology. Their descriptions of how they thought about, communicated, and coped with their decision were so detailed it was possible to discern nine different types of thinking they engaged in while deciding to accept or decline testing. They believed that decision-making is a process of working through your own personal style of thinking. This might include only one or any combination of the following types of thinking: analytical, ethical, moral, reflective, practical, hypothetical, judgmental, scary, and second sight, as described in detail by these 12 couples.
The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.
The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.
Gettings, M. E.
variables such as water use, environmental quality measures (visual and geochemical), deposit quality, rate of development, and commodity price combine in complex ways to yield frequently counter-intuitive results. By varying the interaction strengths linking the variables, insight into the complex interactions of the system can be gained. An example using agent-based modeling is a model designed to test the hypothesis that new valley fever fungus sites could be established from existing sites by wind transport of fungal spores. The variables include layers simulating precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and soil chemistry based on historical climate records and studies of known valley fever habitat. Numerous agent-based model runs show that the system is self organizing to the extent that there will be new sites established by wind transport over decadal scales. Possibility theory provides a framework for gaining insight into the interaction of known or suspected variables in a complex system. Once the data layers are quantified into possibility functions, varying hypotheses of the relative importance of variables and processes can be obtained by repeated combinations with varying weights. This permits an evaluation of the effects of various data layers, their uncertainties, and biases from the layers, all of which improve the objectivity of decision making.
Rao, Justin M.
This dissertation consists of four separate but related papers. The overarching theme is how decision makers process information, form beliefs and make decisions. Chapter 1 examines how individuals' beliefs respond to objective information about their ranking on a neutral quality - a meaningless number on a card - or on a quality that has a significant self-image component - intelligence or beauty. For favorable news in the image tasks, subjects respected signal strength and update as "optimi...
Nieto Barthaburu, Augusto
Chapter I of this dissertation addresses the problem of optimally forecasting a binary variable based on a vector of covariates in the context of two different decision making environments. First we consider a single decision maker with given preferences, who has to choose between two actions on the basis of an unobserved binary outcome. Previous research has shown that traditional prediction methods, such as a logit regression estimated by maximum likelihood and combined with a cutoff, may p...
Celia Deane-Drummond's case for wisdom as an approach to ethical decision making and her doubts about case-oriented methodology are critiqued with reference to the SRT Project's Engineering Genesis study. Its approach is explored in practical decisions on various real life examples of genetic modification in crops and animals. It involved both intrinsic and consequential approaches, and identified key value positions behind different policies and stakeholders. The paper also clarifies the rel...
Lanczos, T.; Pedersen, K. E.
We would like to present a decision-support system developed for identification and storing data concerning with potentially polluted sites and their prioritising. This system could also be adapted for reviewing and evaluation of the war damages. The operation of the system comprises of three procedures: data collection, data handling and the prioritisation of the sites. The relevant data could be collected from different sources, represented mainly by administrative institutions, by sending questionnaires to site owners/operators and by site visits. The collected data should be handled by appropriate database. For this purpose the Contaminated Land Module of the GeoEnviron database application was developed. This application is also designed for providing the preliminary risk assessment scores, which results are used for the site prioritisation. As an example implementation of this system, we shortly present our experiences from testing the system in Slovakia
Sardi, Lauren; Livingston, Kathy
To study which healthcare professionals (HCPs) firstasked parents about their decision regarding circumcision; whether parents felt they were given enough information by their HCP; and what reasons parents cited for their decision. Bilingual questionnaires were administered to parents and expecting parents of boys (N = 60). Close-ended survey responses were analyzed through factor analysis to ascertain what types of beliefs parents used in their decision making, whether they felt they had enough information, and who first asked them about their decision. Nurses were most likely to be the first HCPs to ask parents about circumcision. Parental personal and cultural beliefs played an equal or more important role in influencing decision making than medical information received. However, some parents noted that there was a lack of access to accurate information regarding risks and benefits of male circumcision. Nurses continue to play a critical role in acquisition of knowledge surrounding male circumcision and serve as important liaisons between parents and the proxy consent process. Nurses, as well as other HCPs, should discuss circumcision early in pregnancy so parents have ample time to ask questions, gather information, and make an appropriate decision.
Full Text Available In an organization, decision making is anessential factor to achieve its goals. The decision-making process is a process of selecting the best alternative from many alternatives that systematically chosen as a way to resolve the problem. The decision is seen as a “choice between the alternatives” as well as a form of communication that fulfills the social expectations of the organization’s members. So the goal setting, onflow of information as well as individual’s values within the group affect the decisions made by the group itself. Then, the leadership-participation style in decision-making is the most important factor for creating the mutual understanding between both parties related to the decision. Dalam sebuah organisasi, pengambilan keputusan merupakan faktor penting untuk mencapai tujuannya. Proses pengambilan keputusan adalah proses pemilihan alternatif terbaik dari berbagai alternatif yang secara sistematis dipilih sebagai cara untuk menyelesaikan masalah. Keputusan ini dipandang sebagai “pilihan antara alternatif” serta bentuk komunikasi yang memenuhi harapan sosial dari anggota organisasi. Jadi penetapan tujuan, aliran informasi serta nilai-nilai individu dalam kelompok mempengaruhi keputusan yang dibuat oleh kelompok itu sendiri. Kemudiangaya kepemimpinan-partisipasi dalam pengambilan keputusan adalah faktor yang paling penting untuk menciptakan saling pengertian antara kedua belah pihak yang terkait dengan keputusan tersebut.
This paper assesses the decision making patterns in medical ethics: the formalized pattern of decision science, the meditative pattern of an art of judgement and lastly the still-to-be-elaborated pattern of kairology or sense of the right time. The ethical decision is to be thought out in the conditions of medical action while resorting to the philosophical concepts that shed light on the issue. And it is precisely where medicine and philosophy of human action meet that the Greek notion of kairos, or "propitious moment", evokes the critical point where decision has to do with what is vital. Reflection shows that this kairos can be thought out outside the sacrificial pattern (deciding comes down to killing a possibility) by understanding the opportune moment as a sign of ethical action, as the condition for the formation of the subject (making a decision) and finally as a new relationship to time, including in the context of medical urgency. Thus with an approach to clinical ethics centred on the relation to the individual, the focus is less on the probabilistic knowledge of the decidable than on the meaning of the decision, and the undecidable comes to be accepted as an infinite dimension going beyond the limits of our acts, which makes the contingency and the grandeur of human responsibility.
Ross-Gillespie, Adin; Kümmerli, Rolf
Microbes are intensely social organisms that routinely cooperate and coordinate their activities to express elaborate population level phenotypes. Such coordination requires a process of collective decision-making, in which individuals detect and collate information not only from their physical environment, but also from their social environment, in order to arrive at an appropriately calibrated response. Here, we present a conceptual overview of collective decision-making as it applies to all group-living organisms; we introduce key concepts and principles developed in the context of animal and human group decisions; and we discuss, with appropriate examples, the applicability of each of these concepts in microbial contexts. In particular, we discuss the roles of information pooling, control skew, speed vs. accuracy trade-offs, local feedbacks, quorum thresholds, conflicts of interest, and the reliability of social information. We conclude that collective decision-making in microbes shares many features with collective decision-making in higher taxa, and we call for greater integration between this fledgling field and other allied areas of research, including in the humanities and the physical sciences. PMID:24624121
Kristina M. Rabarison
Full Text Available Contemporary public health professionals must address the health needs of a diverse population with constrained budgets and shrinking funds. Economic evaluation contributes to evidence-based decision making by helping the public health community identify, measure, and compare activities with the necessary impact, scalability, and sustainability to optimize population health. Asking how do investments in public health strategies influence or offset the need for downstream spending on medical care and /or social services? is important when making decisions about resource allocation and scaling of interventions.
Gevarter, William B.
Models of human decision making are reviewed. Models which treat just the cognitive aspects of human behavior are included as well as models which include motivation. Both models which have associated computer programs, and those that do not, are considered. Since flow diagrams, that assist in constructing computer simulation of such models, were not generally available, such diagrams were constructed and are presented. The result provides a rich source of information, which can aid in construction of more realistic future simulations of human decision making.
The author proposes a new model for the assessment of decision-making capacity based on the principles of narrative medicine. The narrative method proposed by the author addresses the hidden power realtionships implicit in the current model of capacity assessment. Sample cases are reviewed using the traditional model in comparison with the narrative model. Narrative medicine provides an effective model for the assessment of decision-making capacity. Deficiencies in the traditional model capacity assessment can be effectively addressed using narrative strategies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Kiker, Gregory A; Bridges, Todd S; Varghese, Arun; Seager, P Thomas P; Linkov, Igor
Decision making in environmental projects can be complex and seemingly intractable, principally because of the inherent trade-offs between sociopolitical, environmental, ecological, and economic factors. The selection of appropriate remedial and abatement strategies for contaminated sites, land use planning, and regulatory processes often involves multiple additional criteria such as the distribution of costs and benefits, environmental impacts for different populations, safety, ecological risk, or human values. Some of these criteria cannot be easily condensed into a monetary value, partly because environmental concerns often involve ethical and moral principles that may not be related to any economic use or value. Furthermore, even if it were possible to aggregate multiple criteria rankings into a common unit, this approach would not always be desirable because the ability to track conflicting stakeholder preferences may be lost in the process. Consequently, selecting from among many different alternatives often involves making trade-offs that fail to satisfy 1 or more stakeholder groups. Nevertheless, considerable research in the area of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has made available practical methods for applying scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex multicriteria problems. This paper presents a review of the available literature and provides recommendations for applying MCDA techniques in environmental projects. A generalized framework for decision analysis is proposed to highlight the fundamental ingredients for more structured and tractable environmental decision making.
This dissertation contains four empirical analyses of household decision making and public policy. We use structural microeconometric methods to evaluate specific aspects of national tax systems which are targeted at partnered households. Our aim is to identify the determinants of household decision
Feather, M. S.; Cornford, S. L.; Dunphy, J.; Hicks, K.
Decisions made in the earliest phases of system development have the most leverage to influence the success of the entire development effort, and yet must be made when information is incomplete and uncertain. We have developed a scalable cost-benefit model to support this critical phase of early-lifecycle decision-making.
Decision-systems theory (DST) was developed from in-depth interviews with farming families and provides an interpretation of the processes farming families use in making strategic decisions in regard to the family members, the farm and the businesses the farming family run. Understanding the nature and justifications used for different decisions…
Sax, Joanna K
Society is facing major challenges in climate change, health care and overall quality of life. Scientific advances to address these areas continue to grow, with overwhelming evidence that the application of highly tested forms of biotechnology is safe and effective. Despite scientific consensus in these areas, consumers appear reluctant to support their use. Research that helps to understand consumer decision-making and the public’s resistance to biotechnologies such as vaccines, fluoridated water programs and genetically engineered food, will provide great social value. This article is forward-thinking in that it suggests that important research in behavioral decision-making, specifically affect and ambiguity, can be used to help consumers make informed choices about major applications of biotechnology. This article highlights some of the most controversial examples: vaccinations, genetically engineered food, rbST treated dairy cows, fluoridated water, and embryonic stem cell research. In many of these areas, consumers perceive the risks as high, but the experts calculate the risks as low. Four major thematic approaches are proposed to create a roadmap for policymakers to consider for policy design and implementation in controversial areas of biotechnology. This article articulates future directions for studies that implement decision-making research to allow consumers to appropriately assign risk to their options and make informed decisions.
Public health, prevention, health education and health promotion are inseparable from the concepts of information and communication. Information should respond as much as possible to the needs of professionals, decision-makers, and consumers who are more and more concerned and conscious of its importance in light of "information overload", various dissemination channels and the multiplicity of its sources. There are numerous issues at stake ranging from comprehension, to the validation of health information, health education, health promotion, prevention, decision-making, as well as issues related to knowledge and power. Irrespective of the type of choice to be made, the need for information, knowledge, and know-how is inseparable from that of other tools or regulatory measures required for decision-making. Information is the same as competence, epidemiological and population data, health data, scientific opinion, and expert conferences--all are needed to assist in decision-making. Based on the principle of precaution, information must increasingly take into account the rejection of a society which often reasons on the basis of a presumption of zero-risk, in an idealistic manner, and which also excludes the possibility of new risks. The consumer positions himself as the regulator of decisions, specifically those with regard to the notion of acceptable level of risk. All of the actors involved in the health system are or become at one moment or another public health decision-makers. Their decision might be based either on an analytical approach, or on an intuitive approach. Although the act of decision-making is the least visible part of public health policy, it is certainly the driving force. This process should integrate the perspective of all of the relevant players, including consumers, who are currently situated more and more frequently at the heart of the health system. Public health decision-making is conducted as a function of political, strategic and
Bastons, Miquel; Armengou, Jaume
There is both individual and collective widespread concern in society about the impact of human activity and the effects of our decisions on the physical and social environment. This concern is included within the idea of sustainability. The meaning of the concept is still ambiguous and its practical effectiveness disputed. Like many other authors, this article uses as a starting point the definition proposed by the World Commission on Environment and Development (Our common future, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1987), considering it to be a proposal for changing the assessment of the effects of decisions, from at least two perspectives: (1) what effects we should consider and (2) how we should assess them. Based on this double perspective, sustainability is explored as a method for decision-making which both expands the assessment of the consequences, and also provides an objective criterion for such assessment. It will be argued that the idea of sustainability, seen from this perspective, brings to decision-making two qualities which had been partially lost: realism and impartiality. In turn, the criteria for realism and impartiality in decision-making can be used to identify the limitations of some partial approaches to sustainability, which suffer from insufficient realism (emotional altruism), insufficient impartiality (tactical altruism) or both phenomena at once (egoism). The article concludes by demonstrating how realism and impartiality provide the basis for a new form of sustainable decision-making (ethical sustainability), which is dependent on the development of two moral virtues, prudence and benevolence, and which brings practical effectiveness and ethical sense to the concept of sustainability.
Full Text Available The expert decision support system for groundwater management in the shallow alluvial aquifers links numerical groundwater flow models with the water permits and concessions databases in order to help groundwater managers to quantify sustainable yield for a given groundwater body and provide additional information for sustainable groundwater management. Stand alone numerical groundwater models are used in the process of the assessment of groundwater quantitative status as well as for assessing local yield quantity during the period of maximum water demand and minimum groundwater recharge.
To make fast and accurate behavioral choices, we need to integrate noisy sensory input, take prior knowledge into account, and adjust our decision criteria. It was shown previously that in two-alternative-forced-choice tasks, optimal decision making can be formalized in the framework of a sequential probability ratio test and is then equivalent to a diffusion model. However, this analogy hides a "chicken and egg" problem: to know how quickly we should integrate the sensory input and set the optimal decision threshold, the reliability of the sensory observations must be known in advance. Most of the time, we cannot know this reliability without first observing the decision outcome. We consider here a Bayesian decision model that simultaneously infers the probability of two different choices and at the same time estimates the reliability of the sensory information on which this choice is based. We show that this can be achieved within a single trial, based on the noisy responses of sensory spiking neurons. The resulting model is a non-linear diffusion to bound where the weight of the sensory inputs and the decision threshold are both dynamically changing over time. In difficult decision trials, early sensory inputs have a stronger impact on the decision, and the threshold collapses such that choices are made faster but with low accuracy. The reverse is true in easy trials: the sensory weight and the threshold increase over time, leading to slower decisions but at much higher accuracy. In contrast to standard diffusion models, adaptive sensory weights construct an accurate representation for the probability of each choice. This information can then be combined appropriately with other unreliable cues, such as priors. We show that this model can account for recent findings in a motion discrimination task, and can be implemented in a neural architecture using fast Hebbian learning.
Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.
This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.
Kon Shing Kenneth Chung
Full Text Available The attitudes of general practitioners (GP play an influential role in their decision making about patient treatment and care. Considering the GP-patient encounter as a complex system, the interactions between the GP and their personal network of peers give rise to “aggregate complexity,” which in turn influences the GP’s decisions about patient treatment. This study models aggregate complexity and its influence in decision making in primary care through the use of social network metrics. Professional network and attitudinal data on decision making responsibility from 107 rural GPs were analysed. Social network measures of “density” and “inclusiveness” were used for computing the “interrelatedness” of components within such a “complex system.” The “number of components” and “degree of interrelatedness” were used to determine the complexity profiles, which was then used to associate with responsibility in decision making for each GP. GPs in simple profiles (i.e., with low components and interactions in contrast to those in nonsimple profiles, indicate a higher responsibility for the decisions they make in medical care. This study suggests that social networks-based complexity profiles are useful for understanding decision making in primary care as it accounts for the role of influence through the professional networks of GPs.
In the past two decades, national and international efforts have assessed the current understanding and consequences of climate variability and change. Two recent documents, the IPCC and CCSP, have outlined areas of research that are needed to further our understanding of the form, direction, and impacts of climate variability and change. Both documents point to the need for an increase in data networks, and modeling and process studies, including paleoclimate-based research. In addition, cutting across the key scientific issues of climate variability and change is the need to communicate scientific information so it can provide a foundation for informed planning and decision making, particularly at the regional level. The disconnect between scientific information and decision-making has been recognized and has begun to be addressed. The challenge of communicating the relevance and usefulness of climate-related data to decision makers is the focus of this presentation, and in particular, on applications of tree-ring based hydroclimatic reconstructions to water resource planning and management in Colorado. An opportunity to engage the water resource management community in considering the usefulness of paleoclimatic records was presented by recent and continuing drought conditions in the western US. In Colorado, Front Range water managers have commonly based drought planning on the premise that the most severe drought in the instrumental record, typically the 1950s drought, represents a likely worst-case scenario. Until the drought of 2002, there was no compelling need to take a more long-term look at water resource management. However, severe and in some respects, unprecedented drought in 2002 motivated many water managers to consider using tree-ring reconstructions of annual streamflow in assessing the risks of drought over time spans beyond the 20th century. Interactions with water providers have ranged from providing regionally-representative reconstructions of
Full Text Available Two procedures were adopted to assess decision-making styles in the workplace: (a the administration of traditional standardized self-report questionnaires and (b open-ended questions about the way respondents would take decisions in a critical business case. Seventy-four adults were given two questionnaires: the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation, which assesses “deliberative” or “intuitive” decision style, and the Style of Learning and Thinking, which assesses thinking styles as “left” (namely, analytical-systematic or “right” (that is, global-intuitive. Participants were also presented with a business case that involved taking a decision. Responses to the business case were used to classify approaches to decision making as “analytical-systematic” or “global-intuitive.” Results showed that the questionnaires correlated consistently with scores from the business case, thus supporting the notion that the assessment of decision style through self-report questionnaires is reliable and valid.
Lee, Simon Craddock; Marks, Emily G; Sanders, Joanne M; Wiebe, Deborah J
We explored patient-perceived role in "decision-making" related to active treatment and palliation among African Americans receiving lung cancer care through a county safety-net system. Drawing from a cohort of over 100 African Americans treated in a safety-net hospital, we invited a subsample of 13 patient-caregiver dyads to participate in a series of dyadic, ethnographic interviews conducted at the patients' homes. Over 40 h of transcripts were analyzed in an iterative process resulting in reported themes. Findings from ethnographic interviews demonstrated that healthcare communication with physicians is difficult for patients. While caregivers and patients describe a deep engagement in lung cancer care, they expressed a concurrent lack of understanding of their prognosis and outcomes of treatment. Dyads did not discuss their lung cancer experience in terms of decision-making; rather, most articulated their role as following physician guidance. Distinct lack of understanding about disease course, severity, and prognosis may constrain patient perception of the need for informed decision-making over the course of care. Dyadic interviews detailing safety-net patient experiences of lung cancer care raise important questions about how clinicians, as well as researchers, conceptualize processes of informed decision-making in vulnerable populations. Safety-net patients may not perceive their role as involving informed decision-making and further may lack understanding of disease course and individual prognosis. Safety-net patient dyads expressed high involvement in care and a desire for clarity; clinicians should be prepared to clearly communicate disease stage and prognosis.
Ellen, Moriah E; Léon, Grégory; Bouchard, Gisèle; Ouimet, Mathieu; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; Lavis, John N
Mobilizing research evidence for daily decision-making is challenging for health system decision-makers. In a previous qualitative paper, we showed the current mix of supports that Canadian health-care organizations have in place and the ones that are perceived to be helpful to facilitate the use of research evidence in health system decision-making. Factors influencing the implementation of such supports remain poorly described in the literature. Identifying the barriers to and facilitators of different interventions is essential for implementation of effective, context-specific, supports for evidence-informed decision-making (EIDM) in health systems. The purpose of this study was to identify (a) barriers and facilitators to implementing supports for EIDM in Canadian health-care organizations, (b) views about emerging development of supports for EIDM, and (c) views about the priorities to bridge the gaps in the current mix of supports that these organizations have in place. This qualitative study was conducted in three types of health-care organizations (regional health authorities, hospitals, and primary care practices) in two Canadian provinces (Ontario and Quebec). Fifty-seven in-depth semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with senior managers, library managers, and knowledge brokers from health-care organizations that have already undertaken strategic initiatives in knowledge translation. The interviews were taped, transcribed, and then analyzed thematically using NVivo 9 qualitative data analysis software. Limited resources (i.e., money or staff), time constraints, and negative attitudes (or resistance) toward change were the most frequently identified barriers to implementing supports for EIDM. Genuine interest from health system decision-makers, notably their willingness to invest money and resources and to create a knowledge translation culture over time in health-care organizations, was the most frequently identified facilitator to
Full Text Available ?160 http://www.orssa.org.za ORiON ISSN 0529-191-X c?2004 Decision-making: Theory and practice SM Turpin? MA Marais? Received: 24 June 2004; Revised: 15 September 2004; Accepted: 6 October 2004 Abstract This paper compares a number of theoretical...
Full Text Available Problems involving more than one criterion abound. To help in the solution of such problems, a field of management science and operations research known as multiple criteria decision making (MCDM has emerged to help solve such problems. In this paper we discuss some recent developments in this important field.
Y. Deelstra (Ytsen); S.G. Nooteboom (Sibout); H.R. Kohlmann; J. van den Berg (Job); S. Innanen (Sally)
textabstractAbstract: Policy-related research in general, and Impact Assessments in particular, are too loosely connected to decision-making processes. The result is often sub-optimal or even undesirable, as one of two situations arises: 1) much research is done; however, those with the real
Nielen, MMA; Veltman, DJ; de Jong, R; Mulder, G; den Boer, JA
Background: Neuro-imaging studies in OCD report the orbitofrontal cortex to be functionally abnormal. As these areas are presumed to be involved in decision making, studying this behavior in OCD may provide further insight into the cognitive deficits accompanying the disorder. Methods: Performance
Albert, Dustin; Steinberg, Laurence
In this article, we review the most important findings to have emerged during the past 10 years in the study of judgment and decision making (JDM) in adolescence and look ahead to possible new directions in this burgeoning area of research. Three inter-related shifts in research emphasis are of particular importance and serve to organize this…
van Ravenzwaaij, Don; van der Maas, Han L. J.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
In their influential "Psychological Review" article, Bogacz, Brown, Moehlis, Holmes, and Cohen (2006) discussed optimal decision making as accomplished by the drift diffusion model (DDM). The authors showed that neural inhibition models, such as the leaky competing accumulator model (LCA) and the feedforward inhibition model (FFI), can mimic the…
M. van der Ven (Myrthe)
markdownabstractThe _first aim_ of this thesis was to evaluate the added value of ultrasound in clinical decision making in patients with arthralgia, patients with psoriasis and monitoring RA patients. Our _second aim_ was to increase sensitivity of power Doppler ultrasound for MCP joints.
Ashford-Rowe, Kevin H.; Holt, Marnie
The "emerging educational institutional decision-making matrix" is developed to allow educational institutions to adopt a rigorous and consistent methodology of determining which of the myriad of emerging educational technologies will be the most compelling for the institution, particularly ensuring that it is the educational or pedagogical but…
Thomsen, Jesper Skovhus; Mosekilde, Erik; Sterman, John David
of this article is to show how the decision making behavior of real people in simulated corporate environments can lead to chaotic, hyperchaotic and higher-order hyperchaotic phenomena. Characteristics features of these complicated forms of behavior are analyzed with particular emphasis on an interesting form...
van Ravenzwaaij, D.; van der Maas, H.L.J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.
In their influential Psychological Review article, Bogacz, Brown, Moehlis, Holmes, and Cohen (2006) discussed optimal decision making as accomplished by the drift diffusion model (DDM). The authors showed that neural inhibition models, such as the leaky competing accumulator model (LCA) and the
Barneva, Reneta P.; Brimkov, Valentin E.; Walters, Lisa M.
In all areas of human activity, decision-making based on data analysis is very important. As the availability of data grows, it becomes critical to educate not only traditional students but also those individuals who are now in the workforce, as many of them are expected to manage the complex data streams and to provide evidence and guidance for…
The study examined the effect of household decision making on the use of contraceptives and fertility behaviour of ever-married men in Nigeria. Men's Recode Dataset of 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) dataset was used. A sample size of 8,981 ever married men aged 15-49 were analyzed using ...
Risk is a central feature of political decision making. Prospect theory, an empirically correct theory of choice under risk that deals precisely with this condition, therefore seems to have much to offer political science. Prospect theory's central finding is that individuals' attitude toward risk
DENIG, P; HAAIJER-RUSKAMP, FM
In this review the therapeutic decision-making process of physicians is described. This process is divided into two steps: the generation of a limited set of possible options (the 'evoked set') and the selection from this evoked set of a treatment for a specific patient. Factors that are important
Birnbaum, Michael H.
During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…
This paper seeks to investigate the extent of influence of corporate (or organisational) responsibility on university students' career decision-making. It reports on a pilot study conducted at the University of Sydney which aims to: explore students' ethical, professional and social understanding regarding corporate responsibility; determine the…
Being able to make decisions is important for all students. Students need to have opportunities to choose from among alternative situations. Reading, as one curriculum area, provides a plethora of opportunities to choose and to select. The philosopher John Locke believed the following facets of an individual's development were in the ensuing order…
The study investigated the relationship of nature of science (NOS) instruction and students' decision-making (DM) related to a controversial socioscientific issue about genetically modified food. Participants were ninth-grade students in four intact sections (two regulars and two honors) in a public high school in the Midwest. All four groups were…
Lusby, Linda A.
This document examines the underlying rationale for the development of a global approach in consumer studies. The concept of consumer ethics is discussed and the consumer decision-making process is placed within an ecosystem perspective of the marketplace. The model developed introduces educators, marketers, and consumers to a more global…
Roč. 1, č. 2 (2005), s. 1-3 ISSN 1860-7470 Grant - others:Commission EU(XE) 110330-CP-1-2003-1-ES-MINERVA-M Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : software tools * education * decision making Subject RIV: JC - Computer Hardware ; Software
Notes that teachers make intentional decisions during interaction with children and reflect on what occurs in the environment. Focuses on teacher behavior along several continua: soft-hard, simple-complex, open-closed, intrusion-seclusion, and high versus low mobility. Illustrates theory with a transcribed observation. Adapts Jones and Prescott's…
Bock, Gregory L
Patients can be harmed by a religiously motivated surrogate decision maker whose decisions are contrary to the standard of care; therefore, surrogate decision making should be held to a high standard. Stewart Eskew and Christopher Meyers proposed a two-part rule for deciding which religiously based decisions to honor: (1) a secular reason condition and (2) a rationality condition. The second condition is based on a coherence theory of rationality, which they claim is accessible, generous, and culturally sensitive. In this article, I will propose strengthening the rationality condition by grounding it in a theory of intellectual virtue, which is both rigorous and culturally sensitive. Copyright 2014 The Journal of Clinical Ethics. All rights reserved.
Nørgaard, Maria Kümpel
. It is suggested that families achieve these competences in a socialisation process where social interaction, including knowledge sharing and knowledge management based on individual learning properties, is an important determinant. It is also suggested that in a family context these competences more precisely......Decision-making during food buying is a joint family activity involving both parents and children. Children manage to achieve a high degree of influence on many decisions, among other things, because they participate actively and help out doing various tasks. These decisions may turn out...... to be a choice of unhealthy food. Many decisions are made at the supermarket or other food shops, and food packaging is often used in the comparison of food products. Only rarely do families use nutritional information on food labels due to several problems in the understanding of these labels; this may result...
Andersen, V.; Andersen, H.B.; Axel, E.; Petersen, T.
A short introduction will be given to the European (ESPRIT II) project, ''IT Support for Emergency Management - ISEM''. The project is aimed at the development of an integrated information system capable of supporting the complex, dynamic, distributed decision making in the management of emergencies. The basic models developed to describe and construct emergency management organisations and their preparedness have been illustrated, and it has been stated that similarities may be found even in emergency situations that originally are of quite different nature. (author)
Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.
Individual consumers are subject to different influences on how they make decisions and what decision-making style they use. Consumer decision-making styles are a mental orientation that characterises a consumer's approach to making choices. The main purpose of the study is to explore the decision-making styles of ...
Schwikert, Shane R; Curran, Tim
Heuristics involve the ability to utilize memory to make quick judgments by exploiting fundamental cognitive abilities. In the current study we investigated the memory processes that contribute to the recognition heuristic and the fluency heuristic, which are both presumed to capitalize on the byproducts of memory to make quick decisions. In Experiment 1, we used a city-size comparison task while recording event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate the potential contributions of familiarity and recollection to the 2 heuristics. ERPs were markedly different for recognition heuristic-based decisions and fluency heuristic-based decisions, suggesting a role for familiarity in the recognition heuristic and recollection in the fluency heuristic. In Experiment 2, we coupled the same city-size comparison task with measures of subjective preexperimental memory for each stimulus in the task. Although previous literature suggests the fluency heuristic relies on recognition speed alone, our results suggest differential contributions of recognition speed and recollected knowledge to these decisions, whereas the recognition heuristic relies on familiarity. Based on these results, we created a new theoretical framework that explains decisions attributed to both heuristics based on the underlying memory associated with the choice options. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.
Kahneman, Daniel; Lovallo, Dan; Sibony, Olivier
When an executive makes a big bet, he or she typically relies on the judgment of a team that has put together a proposal for a strategic course of action. After all, the team will have delved into the pros and cons much more deeply than the executive has time to do. The problem is, biases invariably creep into any team's reasoning-and often dangerously distort its thinking. A team that has fallen in love with its recommendation, for instance, may subconsciously dismiss evidence that contradicts its theories, give far too much weight to one piece of data, or make faulty comparisons to another business case. That's why, with important decisions, executives need to conduct a careful review not only of the content of recommendations but of the recommendation process. To that end, the authors-Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work on cognitive biases; Lovallo of the University of Sydney; and Sibony of McKinsey-have put together a 12-question checklist intended to unearth and neutralize defects in teams' thinking. These questions help leaders examine whether a team has explored alternatives appropriately, gathered all the right information, and used well-grounded numbers to support its case. They also highlight considerations such as whether the team might be unduly influenced by self-interest, overconfidence, or attachment to past decisions. By using this practical tool, executives will build decision processes over time that reduce the effects of biases and upgrade the quality of decisions their organizations make. The payoffs can be significant: A recent McKinsey study of more than 1,000 business investments, for instance, showed that when companies worked to reduce the effects of bias, they raised their returns on investment by seven percentage points. Executives need to realize that the judgment of even highly experienced, superbly competent managers can be fallible. A disciplined decision-making process, not individual genius, is the key to good
Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.
The quantum decision theory introduced recently is formulated as a quantum theory of measurement. It describes prospect states represented by complex vectors of a Hilbert space over a prospect lattice. The prospect operators, acting in this space, form an involutive bijective algebra. A measure is defined for quantifying the entanglement produced by the action of prospect operators. This measure characterizes the level of complexity of prospects involved in decision making. An explicit expression is found for the maximal entanglement produced by the operators of multimode prospects.
a qualitative prism through which it critically analyses the basis of the claim that a democratic deficit exits in this area of decision-making. The study also seeks to understand whether conditions that enhance democratic deliberation in decision processes can contribute to enhance integration of environmental...... concerns into those decisions. Four central normative areas define the framework created for this evaluation: a) fulfilment of procedural obligations during the process; b) development of public debate; c) influence achieved or attempted during the decision-making process; d) existence and reproduction...... exemplify points of democratic strength and fragility in the decision processes. A robust system of participatory procedures exists, in both countries, as part of the planning tradition or as part of the legally mandatory environmental assessment procedures. This robust system shows fragility for government...
Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya
This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.
Kidd Michael R
Full Text Available Abstract Background Online information retrieval systems have the potential to improve patient care but there are few comparative studies of the impact of online evidence on clinicians' decision-making behaviour in routine clinical work. Methods/design A randomized controlled parallel design is employed to assess the effectiveness of an online evidence retrieval system, Quick Clinical (QC in improving clinical decision-making processes in general practice. Eligible clinicians are randomised either to receive access or not to receive access to QC in their consulting rooms for 12 months. Participants complete pre- and post trial surveys. Two-hundred general practitioners are recruited. Participants must be registered to practice in Australia, have a computer with Internet access in their consulting room and use electronic prescribing. Clinicians planning to retire or move to another practice within 12 months or participating in any other clinical trial involving electronic extraction of prescriptions data are excluded from the study. The primary end-points for the study is clinician acceptance and use of QC and the resulting change in decision-making behaviour. The study will examine prescribing patterns related to frequently prescribed medications where there has been a recent significant shift in recommendations regarding their use based upon new evidence. Secondary outcome measures include self-reported changes in diagnosis, patient education, prescriptions written, investigations and referrals. Discussion A trial under experimental conditions is an effective way of examining the impact of using QC in routine general practice consultations.
Levison, W. H.
The optimal control model for pilot-vehicle systems has been extended to handle certain types of human decision tasks. The model for decision making incorporates the observation noise, optimal estimation, and prediction concepts that form the basis of the model for control behavior. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (1) single decision tasks; (2) two decision tasks; and (3) simultaneous manual control and decision tasks. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance scores to within an accuracy of 10 percent can be predicted. The experiment on simultaneous control and decision indicates the presence of task interference in this situation, but the results are not adequate to allow a conclusive test of the predictive capability of the model.
Dankert, James R; Olson, Byron; Si, Jennie
This paper presents a method for asynchronous decision making using recorded neural data in a binary decision task. This is a demonstration of a technique for developing motor cortical neural prosthetics that do not rely on external cued timing information. The system presented in this paper uses support vector machines and leaky integrate-and-fire elements to predict directional paddle presses. In addition to the traditional metrics of accuracy, asynchronous systems must also optimize the time needed to make a decision. The system presented is able to predict paddle presses with a median accuracy of 88% and all decisions are made before the time of the actual paddle press. An alternative bit rate measure of performance is defined to show that the system proposed here is able to perform the task with the same efficiency as the rats.
Providing a critical view on user participation in design, disentangling decision making and power in design, this book uses fieldwork material from two large participatory design projects: one experimental in the field of urban planning, the other a product development project within health care. Addressing power issues in participatory design is critical to providing a realistic view of the possibilities and limitations of participation. Design is decision-making: during a design process a huge number of decisions?taken before the designers end up with a design result - an artefact or system
This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal ...
Full Text Available In developed countries, nowadays we live in a networked society: a society of information, knowledge and services (Castells, 1996, with strong specificities in the Health field (Bourret, 2003, Silber, 2003. The World Health Organization (WHO has outlined the importance of information for improving health for all. However, financial resources remain limited. Health costs represent 11% of GNP in France, Germany, Switzerland and Canada, 14% in the USA, and 7.5% in Spain and the United Kingdom. Governments, local powers, health or insurance organizations therefore face difficult choices in terms of opportunities and priorities, and for that they need specific and valuable data. Firstly, this paper provide a comprehensive overview of our networked society and the appointment of ICT (Information and Communication Technologies and Health (in other words e-Health in a perspective of needs and uses at the micro, meso, and macro levels. We point out the main challenges of development of Nationwide Health Information Network both in the US, UK and France. Then we analyze the main issues about data for Decision Making in Networked Health: coordination and evaluation. In the last sections, we use an Information System perspective to investigate the three interoperability layers (micro, meso and macro. We analyze the requirements and challenges to design an interoperability global architecture which supports different kinds of interactions; then we focus on the harmonization efforts provided at several levels. Finally, we identify common methodological and engineering issues.
This study is approaches a GIS based multi-criteria decision making technique to select potential land fill in Keraniganj of Dhaka city in Bangladesh. Site selection of landfill for Municipal solid waste is an important concern for the urban government in whole world. Dhaka city is highly dense populated city in Bangladesh and municipal solid waste generation rate is increase rapidly day by day. These large amount of generated municipal waste needs appropriate landfill considering environmental, geological, social and technical aspect of the region. The traditional process of site selection process is much difficult, time consuming and costly and needs to replace by a new approaches. An integration of Geographical Information System (GIS) and Multi-criteria Evaluation (MCE) method is best combination to solve complex decision and used to select suitable site. Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP) is world widely most popular decision making MCE technique. In this study AHP used as a multi-criteria decision making to compare five suitability attributes with each other and evaluate weight according to attributes potentiality. Various type raster map layer created using GIS tool for this study. Five suitability raster was assigned with the AHP calculated weight value. A combined weighted spatial layer obtained name as suitability map which is overlapped with a restriction raster map, as result a final suitable map was obtained. The result shows that 12.2% of the area is suitable for constructing landfill site where 4.9% is very high suitable, 2.6% is moderate suitable and 4.7% is low suitable. The final site is constructed after detail field investigation, other technical investigation, land ownership status and public acceptancy. Suitable site selection for non-hazardous landfill is not easy and its needs to consider many environmental factor at time. GIS tool combining with many decision making tool such as multi-criteria evaluation can solve this problem. A combining
Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.
The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs