Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras; Govindan, K.; Antucheviciene, Jurgita
Formal decision-making methods can be used to help improve the overall sustainability of industries and organisations. Recently, there has been a great proliferation of works aggregating sustainability criteria by using diverse multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. A number of revi...
Vergeer, Ineke; Lyle, John
Mixing methods has recently achieved respectability as an appropriate approach to research design, offering a variety of advantages (Tashakkori & Teddlie, 2003). The purpose of this paper is to outline and evaluate a mixed methods approach within the domain of coaches' decision making. Illustrated with data from a policy-capturing study on…
Se describe, analisa y critica el método Delphi, desarrollado para encontrar una opinión grupal para tomar decisiones de manera eficiente en una empresa. The article describes, analyzes and criticizes the Delphi method, developed to find a group opinion to make decisions in an efficient way in a firm.
This book introduces methods for uncertain multi-attribute decision making including uncertain multi-attribute group decision making and their applications to supply chain management, investment decision making, personnel assessment, redesigning products, maintenance services, military system efficiency evaluation. Multi-attribute decision making, also known as multi-objective decision making with finite alternatives, is an important component of modern decision science. The theory and methods of multi-attribute decision making have been extensively applied in engineering, economics, management and military contexts, such as venture capital project evaluation, facility location, bidding, development ranking of industrial sectors and so on. Over the last few decades, great attention has been paid to research on multi-attribute decision making in uncertain settings, due to the increasing complexity and uncertainty of supposedly objective aspects and the fuzziness of human thought. This book can be used as a ref...
Clausen, M. J.; Fraley, D. W.; Denning, R. S.
This paper reports observations and preliminary investigations in the first phase of a research program covering methodologies for making safety-related decisions. The objective has been to gain insight into NRC perceptions of the value of formal decision methods, their possible applications, and how risk is, or may be, incorporated in decision making. The perception of formal decision making techniques, held by various decision makers, and what may be done to improve them, were explored through interviews with NRC staff. An initial survey of decision making methods, an assessment of the applicability of formal methods vis-a-vis the available information, and a review of methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty have also been conducted.
This monograph is intended for an advanced undergraduate or graduate course as well as for researchers, who want a compilation of developments in this rapidly growing field of operations research. This is a sequel to our previous works: "Multiple Objective Decision Making--Methods and Applications: A state-of-the-Art Survey" (No.164 of the Lecture Notes); "Multiple Attribute Decision Making--Methods and Applications: A State-of-the-Art Survey" (No.186 of the Lecture Notes); and "Group Decision Making under Multiple Criteria--Methods and Applications" (No.281 of the Lecture Notes). In this monograph, the literature on methods of fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM) has been reviewed thoroughly and critically, and classified systematically. This study provides readers with a capsule look into the existing methods, their characteristics, and applicability to the analysis of fuzzy MADM problems. The basic concepts and algorithms from the classical MADM methods have been used in the development of the f...
Pier Luigi Baldi
Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.
Jammet, H.; Hamard, J.
Decisions on the application of countermeasures for accident situations must take into account the cost of these countermeasures and the feasibility of reducing the exposure. A contribution to the solution of this problem, rested on the application of the principle of choice rationalization and optimization of decision making method, is presented [fr
Xu Zhixin; Xi Shuren; Qu Jingyuan
Protective actions such as evacuation, sheltering and iodine administration can be taken to mitigate the radiological consequence in the event of an accidental release. In general, decision-making of countermeasures involves both quantitative and qualitative criteria. The conventional approaches to assessing these criteria tend to be less effective when dealing with those qualitative criteria that are imprecise or vague. In this regard, fuzzy set method is an alternative tool. It can cope with vague assessment in a better way. This paper presents the application of fussy methodology to decision-making of protective actions in nuclear emergencies. In this method linguistic terms and fuzzy triangular numbers are used to represent decision-maker's subjective assessment for different decision criteria considered and decision alternatives versus the decision criteria. Following the assessment performed by specialists, corresponding evaluations can be synthesized and ranked. Finally, the optimal strategy for implementing protective actions can be recommended. (authors)
Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya
This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.
Fernando Guilherme Silvano Lobo Pimentel
Full Text Available Management decision making methods frequently adopt quantitativemodels of several criteria that bypass the question of whysome criteria are considered more important than others, whichmakes more difficult the task of delivering a transparent viewof preference structure priorities that might promote ethics andlearning and serve as a basis for future decisions. To tackle thisparticular shortcoming of usual methods, an alternative qualitativemethodology of aggregating preferences based on the rankingof criteria is proposed. Such an approach delivers a simpleand transparent model for the solution of each preference conflictfaced during the management decision making process. Themethod proceeds by breaking the decision problem into ‘two criteria– two alternatives’ scenarios, and translating the problem ofchoice between alternatives to a problem of choice between criteriawhenever appropriate. The unicriterion model method is illustratedby its application in a car purchase and a house purchasedecision problem.
This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
Zainal, Rozlin; Kasim, Narimah; Sarpin, Norliana; Wee, Seow Ta; Shamsudin, Zarina
Late delivery and sick housing project problems were attributed to poor decision making. These problems are the string of housing developer that prefers to create their own approach based on their experiences and expertise with the simplest approach by just applying the obtainable standards and rules in decision making. This paper seeks to identify the decision making methods for housing development at the initiation phase in Malaysia. The research involved Delphi method by using questionnaire survey which involved 50 numbers of developers as samples for the primary stage of collect data. However, only 34 developers contributed to the second stage of the information gathering process. At the last stage, only 12 developers were left for the final data collection process. Finding affirms that Malaysian developers prefer to make their investment decisions based on simple interpolation of historical data and using simple statistical or mathematical techniques in producing the required reports. It was suggested that they seemed to skip several important decision-making functions at the primary development stage. These shortcomings were mainly due to time and financial constraints and the lack of statistical or mathematical expertise among the professional and management groups in the developer organisations.
Rao, Ravipudi Venkata
Manufacturing is the backbone of any industrialized nation. Recent worldwide advances in manufacturing technologies have brought about a metamorphism in the industry. Fast-changing technologies on the product front have created a need for an equally fast response from manufacturing industries. To meet these challenges, manufacturing industries have to select appropriate manufacturing strategies, product designs, manufacturing processes, work piece and tool materials, and machinery and equipment. The selection decisions are complex as decision making is more challenging today. Decision makers i
Chambers, David W
A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.
Objective: To explore the methods, reasons and decision-making process for termination of pregnancy among adolescents and older women, in Mulago hospital, Kampala, Uganda. Design: Comparative study. Subjects: Nine hundred and forty two women seeking postabortion care, of which 333 had induced abortion (of ...
Forthofer, M. J.
When faced with choosing between alternatives, people tend to use a number of criteria (often subjective, rather than objective) to decide which is the best alternative for them given their unique situation. The subjectivity inherent in the decision-making process can be reduced by the definition and use of a quantitative method for evaluating alternatives. This type of method can help decision makers achieve degree of uniformity and completeness in the evaluation process, as well as an increased sensitivity to the factors involved. Additional side-effects are better documentation and visibility of the rationale behind the resulting decisions. General guidelines for defining a quantitative method are presented and a particular method (called 'hierarchical weighted average') is defined and applied to the evaluation of design alternatives for a hypothetical computer system capability.
Li, Cunbin; Yuan, Jiahang; Qi, Zhiqiang
With rapid speed on electricity using and increasing in renewable energy, more and more research pay attention on distribution grid planning. For the drawbacks of existing research, this paper proposes a new risky group decision-making method for distribution grid planning. Firstly, a mixing index system with qualitative and quantitative indices is built. On the basis of considering the fuzziness of language evaluation, choose cloud model to realize "quantitative to qualitative" transformation and construct interval numbers decision matrices according to the "3En" principle. An m-dimensional interval numbers decision vector is regarded as super cuboids in m-dimensional attributes space, using two-level orthogonal experiment to arrange points uniformly and dispersedly. The numbers of points are assured by testing numbers of two-level orthogonal arrays and these points compose of distribution points set to stand for decision-making project. In order to eliminate the influence of correlation among indices, Mahalanobis distance is used to calculate the distance from each solutions to others which means that dynamic solutions are viewed as the reference. Secondly, due to the decision-maker's attitude can affect the results, this paper defines the prospect value function based on SNR which is from Mahalanobis-Taguchi system and attains the comprehensive prospect value of each program as well as the order. At last, the validity and reliability of this method is illustrated by examples which prove the method is more valuable and superiority than the other.
Full Text Available Stimulated by the expressed managers’ need for some completed methods for environmental management in enterprises, we present the method for environmentally oriented business decision-making. It is based on simulations where optimization models of business processes are used as scenarios. The possibilities for an integrated approach to environmental protection are introduced and – decomposed according to the type of the considered element by using zero-one variables – included in the optimization models. The method is completed for multicriteria decision-making where in the simulations obtained optimal values are included. In a real-life case where the Analytic Hierarchy Process technique is used to evaluate environmentally oriented business processes, special attention is given to criteria and weights: we consider preferences and survey findings on the environmental impact of business processes in the enterprise, survey findings on environmental management in the processing industry, and ecobalances.
Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin
Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...
In the last 25 years, the fuzzy set theory has been applied in many disciplines such as operations research, management science, control theory, artificial intelligence/expert system, etc. In this volume, methods and applications of crisp, fuzzy and possibilistic multiple objective decision making are first systematically and thoroughly reviewed and classified. This state-of-the-art survey provides readers with a capsule look into the existing methods, and their characteristics and applicability to analysis of fuzzy and possibilistic programming problems. To realize practical fuzzy modelling, it presents solutions for real-world problems including production/manufacturing, location, logistics, environment management, banking/finance, personnel, marketing, accounting, agriculture economics and data analysis. This book is a guided tour through the literature in the rapidly growing fields of operations research and decision making and includes the most up-to-date bibliographical listing of literature on the topi...
Rao, R Venkata
Decision Making in Manufacturing Environment Using Graph Theory and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods presents the concepts and details of applications of MADM methods. A range of methods are covered including Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR), Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Preference Ranking METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la Realité (ELECTRE), COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS), Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), UTility Additive (UTA), and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). The existing MADM methods are improved upon and three novel multiple attribute decision making methods for solving the decision making problems of the manufacturing environment are proposed. The concept of integrated weights is introduced in the proposed subjective and objective integrated weights (SOIW) method and the weighted Euclidean distance ba...
Research into human decision making (DM) processes from outside of education paint a different picture of DM than current DM models in education. This pilot study assesses the use of critical decision method (CDM)--developed from observations of firefighters' DM -- in the context of primary mathematics teachers' in-class DM. Preliminary results…
Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to present a heuristic method for decision-making regarding an NP-hard scheduling problem with limitations related to tasks and the resources dependent on the current state of the process. The presented approach is based on the algebraic-logical meta-model (ALMM, which enables making collective decisions in successive process stages, not separately for individual objects or executors. Moreover, taking into account the limitations of the problem, it involves constructing only an acceptable solution and significantly reduces the amount of calculations. A general algorithm based on the presented method is composed of the following elements: preliminary analysis of the problem, techniques for the choice of decision at a given state, the pruning non-perspective trajectory, selection technique of the initial state for the trajectory final part, and the trajectory generation parameters modification. The paper includes applications of the presented approach to scheduling problems on unrelated parallel machines with a deadline and machine setup time dependent on the process state, where the relationship between tasks is defined by the graph. The article also presents the results of computational experiments.
Full Text Available Optimization of outsourcing operations plays an important role on development and progress for modern organizations. One important question in optimization process is to find a tradeoff between advantage and disadvantage of outsourcing and make appropriate decision whenever outsourcing action is necessary. In fact, there are several cases where outsourcing is not implemented properly and organizations suffer from the consequences. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate various aspects of outsourcing to facilitate decision-making process in fuzzy environments. The preliminary results detect some of the necessary actions for decision making operations.DOI: 10.5267/j.msl.2012.10.005Keywords:
Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.
As part of the NRC-sponsored program to study the implications of Generic Issue 57, ''Effects of Fire Protection System Actuation on Safety-Related Equipment,'' a subtask was performed to evaluate the applicability of formal decision analysis methods to generic issues cost/benefit-type decisions and to apply these methods to the GI-57 results. In this report, the numerical results obtained from the analysis of three plants (two PWRs and one BWR) as developed in the technical resolution program for GI-57 were studied. For each plant, these results included a calculation of the person-REM averted due to various accident scenarios and various proposed modifications to mitigate the accident scenarios identified. These results were recomputed to break out the benefit in terms of contributions due to random event scenarios, fire event scenarios, and seismic event scenarios. Furthermore, the benefits associated with risk (in terms of person-REM) averted from earthquakes at three different seismic ground motion levels were separately considered. Given this data, formal decision methodologies involving decision trees, value functions, and utility functions were applied to this basic data. It is shown that the formal decision methodology can be applied at several different levels. Examples are given in which the decision between several retrofits is changed from that resulting from a simple cost/benefit-ratio criterion by virtue of the decision-makinger's expressed (and assumed) preferences
the cosine similarity measure is often used in information retrieval, citation analysis, and automatic classification. However, it scarcely deals with trapezoidal fuzzy information and multicriteria decision-making problems. For this purpose, a cosine similarity measure between trapezoidal fuzzy numbers is proposed based on ...
The lecture discusses the basics of statistical decision making in connection with humanitarian mine action. There is special focus on: 1) requirements for mine detection; 2) design and evaluation of mine equipment; 3) performance improvement by statistical learning and information fusion; 4...
Full Text Available Many organizations are in front of most competitive economic environments, where, in order to survive, they must reduce costs all the time and adopt the most intelligent business strategies. In most decision making activities the manager has to decide which variant is the most advantageous, taking into account a multitude of criterions. Expert systems use the expert's knowledge and problem solving skills in a particular subject area throughout an organization, and can propose the optimal variant to be chosen. In this paper we have outlined the role of multicriterial methods in programming expert systems to decide in favor of the most eligible variant between a multitude of possibilities. We also made a case study and designed the prototype of an expert system for choosing the most profitable offer among many, in the prenegotiation stage, for a company, in order to organize the negotiation processes accor-dingly. In this respect, we tried to highlight the usefulness of multicriterial mathematical me-thods in three negotiation processes of a Romanian negotiation team with foreign negotiation teams for the acquisition of an equipment.
Rani, Ruzanita Mat; Ismail, Wan Rosmanira; Razali, Siti Fatihah
Operator performance evaluation is a very important operation in labor-intensive manufacturing industry because the company's productivity depends on the performance of its operators. The aims of operator performance evaluation are to give feedback to operators on their performance, to increase company's productivity and to identify strengths and weaknesses of each operator. In this paper, six multi criteria decision making methods; Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy AHP (FAHP), ELECTRE, PROMETHEE II, Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) are used to evaluate the operators' performance and to rank the operators. The performance evaluation is based on six main criteria; competency, experience and skill, teamwork and time punctuality, personal characteristics, capability and outcome. The study was conducted at one of the SME food manufacturing companies in Selangor. From the study, it is found that AHP and FAHP yielded the "outcome" criteria as the most important criteria. The results of operator performance evaluation showed that the same operator is ranked the first using all six methods.
Shimizu, Shunichi; Sakurai, Shoji; Takaoka, Kazushi; Kanemoto, Shigeru; Fukutomi, Shigeki
Inspection and maintenance planning in nuclear power plants is conducted by decision making based on experts' collective consensus. However, since a great deal of time and effort is required to reach a consensus among expert judgments, the establishment of effective decision making methods is necessary. Therefore, the authors developed a method for supporting collective decision making, based on a combination of three types of decision making methods; the Characteristic Diagram method, Interpretative Structural Modeling method, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. The proposed method enables us to determine the evaluation criteria systematically for collective decision making, and also allows extracting collective decisions using simplified questionnaires. The proposed method can support reaching a consensus of groups effectively through the evaluation of collective decision structural models and their characteristics. In this paper, the effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated through its application to the decision making problem concerning whether or not the improved ultrasonic testing equipment should be adopted at nuclear power plants. (author)
Full Text Available Hazardous waste is substance that threaten people and environment in case of improper storage, disposal and transport due to its concentration, physical and chemical properties. Companies producing hazardous waste as a result of several activities mostly do not have any own disposal facilities. In addition, they do not pay attention enough to determine the right contractor as a disposal facility. On the other hand, there are various qualitative and quantitative criteria affecting the selection of the contractor and conflicting with each other. The aim of the performed study is to assist one of these companies producing hazardous waste in the selection of the best contractor that eliminates hazardous waste economic and harmless way. In the study, contractor weights in percentage is calculated by using Analytic Network Process (ANP as one of the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM methods and widely used in the literature which considers both qualitative and quantitative criteria. In the next step, by the help of the mathematical model, contractors that will be given which type of hazardous waste are identified. This integrated approach can be used as a guide for similar firms.
Development Ethical Decision Making Qualitative Methods Applications of Gestalt Theory Decision Making Experiences Mixed-Method...U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences Research Report 1932 Enhancing Perception in Ethical...TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (from. . . to) April 2009 to May 2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Enhancing Perception in Ethical Decision Making: A
Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.
We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891
Prigozhin, Arkadii Il'ich
Explores former Soviet management consultants' increased use of social psychological game methods. Identifies such games as means of involving segments of client organizations in accomplishing shared tasks. Proposes a "practical" business game, designed to shape the process of formulating new management decisions at a radical level.…
Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing
This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example.
Espin, Christine A.; Wayman, Miya Miura; Deno, Stanley L.; McMaster, Kristen L.; de Rooij, Mark
In this special issue, we explore the decision-making aspect of "data-based decision-making". The articles in the issue address a wide range of research questions, designs, methods, and analyses, but all focus on data-based decision-making for students with learning difficulties. In this first article, we introduce the topic of…
Mahmood B. Ridha
This study aims to explain the role of heuristic methods in the decision making process and as a tool for knowledge capture. As a result, we conclude that heuristic methods give better support to the decision maker than mathematical models in many cases especially when time and cost are critical factors in decision making.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may
Chen Yingfeng; Wang Jianlong; Lin Xiaoling; Yang Yongxin; Lu Xincheng
According to the individual feature identification method and combining with the characteristics of nuclear accident emergency decision-making, the evaluation index system of the nuclear accident emergency decision-making was determined on the basis of investigation and analysis. The effectiveness of the nuclear accident emergency decision-making was evaluated based on the individual standards by solving the individual features of the individual standard identification decisions. The case study shows that the optimization result is reasonable, objective and reliable, and it can provide an effective analysis method and decision-making support for optimization of nuclear accident emergency protective measures. (authors)
KORKUNA NATALIA MIKHAYLOVNA
The paper presents the concept of the application of mathematical methods and models in making decisions on taxation in Ukraine as a phased process. Its performance result is the selection of an effective decision based on regression and optimization models.
Weernink, Marieke Geertruida Maria; Janus, Sarah; van Til, Janine Astrid; Raisch, Dennis; van Manen, Jeanette Gabrielle; IJzerman, Maarten Joost
Introduction: Preference elicitation methods help to increase patient-centred medical decision making (MDM) by measuring benefit and value. Preferences can be applied in decisions regarding reimbursement, including health technology assessment (HTA); market access, including benefit–risk assessment
Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin
Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly
Calculations aimed at representing the thought process of decision makers are common within multi-objective decision support tools. These calculations that mathematically describe preferences most often combine various utility scores (i.e., abilities to satisfy desires) with weig...
Naomi Bloem; Wilna L. Bean
Background: Companies have often relinquished the control of important business functions to outside suppliers for the sake of short-term savings and because of the lack of use of proper decision-making methods within the business. Objectives: This article identified three methods of decision-making and applied it to a logistics outsourcing problem. The logistics outsourcing problem consisted of a make-or-buy decision as well as a supplier selection process. The purpose of the study was t...
Li, Qingsheng; Diao, Yuzhu; Gong, Zaiwu; Hu, Aqin
Based on grey language multi-attribute group decision making, a kernel and grey scale scoring function is put forward according to the definition of grey language and the meaning of the kernel and grey scale. The function introduces grey scale into the decision-making method to avoid information distortion. This method is applied to the grey language hesitant fuzzy group decision making, and the grey correlation degree is used to sort the schemes. The effectiveness and practicability of the decision-making method are further verified by the industry chain sustainable development ability evaluation example of a circular economy. Moreover, its simplicity and feasibility are verified by comparing it with the traditional grey language decision-making method and the grey language hesitant fuzzy weighted arithmetic averaging (GLHWAA) operator integration method after determining the index weight based on the grey correlation.
Full Text Available This paper proposes a new multiple criteria decision-making method called ERVD (election based on relative value distances. The s-shape value function is adopted to replace the expected utility function to describe the risk-averse and risk-seeking behavior of decision makers. Comparisons and experiments contrasting with the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution method are carried out to verify the feasibility of using the proposed method to represent the decision makers’ preference in the decision making process. Our experimental results show that the proposed approach is an appropriate and effective MCDM method.
Full Text Available Hesitant fuzzy linguistic decision making is a focus point in linguistic decision making, in which the main method is based on preference ordering. This paper develops a new hesitant fuzzy linguistic TOPSIS method for group multi-criteria linguistic decision making; the method is inspired by the TOPSIS method and the preference degree between two hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets (HFLTSs. To this end, we first use the preference degree to define a pseudo-distance between two HFLTSs and analyze its properties. Then we present the positive (optimistic and negative (pessimistic information of each criterion provided by each decision maker and aggregate these by using weights of decision makers to obtain the hesitant fuzzy linguistic positive and negative ideal solutions. On the basis of the proposed pseudo-distance, we finally obtain the positive (negative ideal separation matrix and a new relative closeness degree to rank alternatives. We also design an algorithm based on the provided method to carry out hesitant fuzzy linguistic decision making. An illustrative example shows the elaboration of the proposed method and comparison with the symbolic aggregation-based method, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic TOPSIS method and the hesitant fuzzy linguistic VIKOR method; it seems that the proposed method is a useful and alternative decision-making method.
Bartelink, Cora; van Yperen, Tom A; ten Berge, Ingrid J
Assessment and decision-making in child maltreatment cases is difficult. Practitioners face many uncertainties and obstacles during their assessment and decision-making process. Research exhibits shortcomings in this decision-making process. The purpose of this literature review is to identify and discuss methods to overcome these shortcomings. We conducted a systematic review of the published literature on decision-making using PsychINFO and MEDLINE from 2000 through May 2014. We included reviews and quantitative research studies that investigated methods aimed at improving professional decision-making on child abuse and neglect in child welfare and child protection. Although many researchers have published articles on decision-making including ideas and theories to improve professional decision-making, empirical research on these improvements is scarce. Available studies have shown promising results. Structured decision-making has created a greater child-centred and holistic approach that takes the child's family and environment into account, which has made practitioners work more systematically and improved the analysis of complex situations. However, this approach has not improved inter-rater agreement on decisions made. Shared decision-making may improve the participation of parents and children and the quality of decisions by taking client treatment preferences into account in addition to scientific evidence and clinical experience. A number of interesting developments appear in recent research literature; however, child welfare and child protection must find additional inspiration from other areas, e.g., mental health services, because research on decision-making processes in child welfare and child protection is still rare. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Ren, Peijia; Xu, Zeshui; Hao, Zhinan
Due to the timeliness of emergency response and much unknown information in emergency situations, this paper proposes a method to deal with the emergency decision making, which can comprehensively reflect the emergency decision making process. By utilizing the hesitant fuzzy elements to represent the fuzziness of the objects and the hesitant thought of the experts, this paper introduces the negative exponential function into the prospect theory so as to portray the psychological behaviors of the experts, which transforms the hesitant fuzzy decision matrix into the hesitant fuzzy prospect decision matrix (HFPDM) according to the expectation-levels. Then, this paper applies the energy and the entropy in thermodynamics to take the quantity and the quality of the decision values into account, and defines the thermodynamic decision making parameters based on the HFPDM. Accordingly, a whole procedure for emergency decision making is conducted. What is more, some experiments are designed to demonstrate and improve the validation of the emergency decision making procedure. Last but not the least, this paper makes a case study about the emergency decision making in the firing and exploding at Port Group in Tianjin Binhai New Area, which manifests the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.
Mezera, Filip; Křupka, Jiří
This article deals with decision-making support methods’ implementation in a medium size financial company with international operations. The objective of this article is to show the abilities of these methods to precise decision-making of management. At the beginning of this article there is briefly described the existing situation in this business sector in Central Europe. After that part Business Intelligence methods are described as well as the reasons while these methods have been introd...
... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...
Full Text Available Background: Companies have often relinquished the control of important business functions to outside suppliers for the sake of short-term savings and because of the lack of use of proper decision-making methods within the business. Objectives: This article identified three methods of decision-making and applied it to a logistics outsourcing problem. The logistics outsourcing problem consisted of a make-or-buy decision as well as a supplier selection process. The purpose of the study was to determine the most suitable method in the case of logistics outsourcing. Method: The decision-making methods were applied to a South African case study within the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG industry. The logistics functions considered in the case study included secondary distribution and warehousing of finished goods. Each method considered the same evaluation criteria and the results were analysed and compared. Results: Each method produced different results to the logistics outsourcing problem. The method developed by Platts, Probert and Canez (2000 suggested that the logistics functions be insourced. The decision tree method suggested outsourcing both functions, with a unit rate cost model. The results from the linear programming (LP method indicated that the secondary distribution function should be insourced and the warehousing function outsourced, with a fixed and variable cost model pending further analysis of the demand trends. Conclusion: The study provides empirical evidence that proven outsourcing decision-making methods, such as the method developed by Platts et al. (2000, the LP method and the decision tree method traditionally applied to a manufacturing outsourcing decision problem, can be adapted and applied to a logistics outsourcing decision problem of a South African FMCG company.
To overcome the limitations of the traditional surrogate worth trade-off (SWT) method and solve the multiple criteria decision making problem more efficiently and interactively, a new method labeled dual worth trade-off (DWT) method is proposed. The DWT method dynamically uses the duality theory related to the multiple criteria decision making problem and analytic hierarchy process technique to obtain the decision maker's solution preference information and finally find the satisfactory compromise solution of the decision maker. Through the interactive process between the analyst and the decision maker, trade-off information is solicited and treated properly, the representative subset of efficient solutions and the satisfactory solution to the problem are found. The implementation procedure for the DWT method is presented. The effectiveness and applicability of the DWT method are shown by a practical case study in the field of production scheduling.
Full Text Available There are many real-life problems that, because of the need to involve a wide domain of knowledge, are beyond a single expert. This is especially true for complex problems. Therefore, it is usually necessary to allocate more than one expert to a decision process. In such situations, we can observe an increasing importance of uncertainty. In this paper, the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM method called the Characteristic Objects Method (COMET is extended to solve problems for Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making (MCGDM in a hesitant fuzzy environment. It is a completely new idea for solving problems of group decision-making under uncertainty. In this approach, we use L-R-type Generalized Fuzzy Numbers (GFNs to get the degree of hesitancy for an alternative under a certain criterion. Therefore, the classical COMET method was adapted to work with GFNs in group decision-making problems. The proposed extension is presented in detail, along with the necessary background information. Finally, an illustrative numerical example is provided to elaborate the proposed method with respect to the support of a decision process. The presented extension of the COMET method, as opposed to others’ group decision-making methods, is completely free of the rank reversal phenomenon, which is identified as one of the most important MCDM challenges.
Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.
We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...
Cevik, Yasemin Demiraslan; Andre, Thomas
This study compared the impact of three types of instructional methods (case-based learning, worked example and faded worked example) on preservice teachers' (n?=?72) decision-making about classroom management. A quasi-experimental study was conducted to investigate both the outcomes and the processes of preservice teachers' decision-making…
Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P.
Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing
Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.
This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,
An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig
In light of the deficiencies and limitations for existing score functions, Lin has proposed a more effective and reasonable new score function for measuring vague values. By using Lin’s score function and a new weighted aggregation score function, an algorithm for multi-criteria group decision-making method was proposed to solve vague set based group decision-making problems under vague environments. Finally, a numerical example was illustrated to show the effectiveness of the proposed multi-...
Bo Sun; Qiang Feng; Songjie Li
According to the demand for condition-based maintenance online decision making among a mission oriented fleet, an intelligent maintenance decision making method based on Multi-agent and heuristic rules is proposed. The process of condition-based maintenance within an aircraft fleet (each containing one or more Line Replaceable Modules) based on multiple maintenance thresholds is analyzed. Then the process is abstracted into a Multi-Agent Model, a 2-layer model structure containing host negoti...
Hancock, Helen C; Mason, James M; Murphy, Jerry J
Abstract Background Heart failure is not a clear-cut diagnosis but a complex clinical syndrome with consequent diagnostic uncertainty. Judgment analysis is a method to help clinical teams to understand how they make complex decisions. The method of judgment analysis was used to determine the factors that influence clinicians' diagnostic decisions about heart failure. Methods Three consultants, three middle grade doctors, and two junior doctors each evaluated 45 patient scenarios. The main out...
Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van
By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the
Full Text Available The interval neutrosophic uncertain linguistic variables can easily express the indeterminate and inconsistent information in real world, and TOPSIS is a very effective decision making method more and more extensive applications. In this paper, we will extend the TOPSIS method to deal with the interval neutrosophic uncertain linguistic information, and propose an extended TOPSIS method to solve the multiple attribute decision making problems in which the attribute value takes the form of the interval neutrosophic uncertain linguistic variables and attribute weight is unknown. Firstly, the operational rules and properties for the interval neutrosophic variables are introduced. Then the distance between two interval neutrosophic uncertain linguistic variables is proposed and the attribute weight is calculated by the maximizing deviation method, and the closeness coefficients to the ideal solution for each alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is given to illustrate the decision making steps and the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Hardy, Terry L.
Fuzzy logic allows for quantitative representation of vague or fuzzy objectives, and therefore is well-suited for multi-objective decision-making. This paper presents methods employing fuzzy logic concepts to assist in the decision-making process. In addition, this paper describes software developed at NASA Lewis Research Center for assisting in the decision-making process. Two diverse examples are used to illustrate the use of fuzzy logic in choosing an alternative among many options and objectives. One example is the selection of a lunar lander ascent propulsion system, and the other example is the selection of an aeration system for improving the water quality of the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, Ohio. The fuzzy logic techniques provided here are powerful tools which complement existing approaches, and therefore should be considered in future decision-making activities.
Hermann, Robert; Baumgartner, Rupert J; Vorbach, Stefan; Ragossnig, Arne; Pomberger, Roland
For the first time in Austria, fundamental technological and economic studies on recovering secondary raw materials from large landfills have been carried out, based on the 'LAMIS - Landfill Mining Austria' pilot project. A main focus of the research - and the subject of this article - was to develop an assessment or decision-making procedure that allows landfill owners to thoroughly examine the feasibility of a landfill mining project in advance. Currently there are no standard procedures that would sufficiently cover all the multiple-criteria requirements. The basic structure of the multiple attribute decision making process was used to narrow down on selection, conceptual design and assessment of suitable procedures. Along with a breakdown into preliminary and main assessment, the entire foundation required was created, such as definitions of requirements to an assessment method, selection and accurate description of the various assessment criteria and classification of the target system for the present 'landfill mining' vs. 'retaining the landfill in after-care' decision-making problem. Based on these studies, cost-utility analysis and the analytical-hierarchy process were selected from the range of multiple attribute decision-making procedures and examined in detail. Overall, both methods have their pros and cons with regard to their use for assessing landfill mining projects. Merging these methods or connecting them with single-criteria decision-making methods (like the net present value method) may turn out to be reasonable and constitute an appropriate assessment method. © The Author(s) 2015.
Full Text Available Background: Today, both researchers and practitioners have many methods for supporting the decision-making process. Due to the conditions in which supply chains function, the most interesting are multi-criteria methods. The use of sophisticated methods for supporting decisions requires the parameterization and execution of calculations that are often complex. So is it efficient to use sophisticated methods? Methods: The authors of the publication compared two popular multi-criteria decision-making methods: the Weighted Sum Model (WSM and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. A simulation study reflects these two decision-making methods. Input data for this study was a set of criteria weights and the value of each in terms of each criterion. Results: The iGrafx Process for Six Sigma simulation software recreated how both multiple-criteria decision-making methods (WSM and AHP function. The result of the simulation was a numerical value defining the preference of each of the alternatives according to the WSM and AHP methods. The alternative producing a result of higher numerical value was considered preferred, according to the selected method. In the analysis of the results, the relationship between the values of the parameters and the difference in the results presented by both methods was investigated. Statistical methods, including hypothesis testing, were used for this purpose. Conclusions: The simulation study findings prove that the results obtained with the use of two multiple-criteria decision-making methods are very similar. Differences occurred more frequently in lower-value parameters from the "value of each alternative" group and higher-value parameters from the "weight of criteria" group.
Jaini, Nor I.; Utyuzhnikov, Sergei V.
Data in the multi-criteria decision making are often imprecise and changeable. Therefore, it is important to carry out sensitivity analysis test for the multi-criteria decision making problem. The paper aims to present a sensitivity analysis for some ranking techniques based on the distance measures in multi-criteria decision making. Two types of uncertainties are considered for the sensitivity analysis test. The first uncertainty is related to the input data, while the second uncertainty is towards the Decision Maker preferences (weights). The ranking techniques considered in this study are TOPSIS, the relative distance and trade-off ranking methods. TOPSIS and the relative distance method measure a distance from an alternative to the ideal and antiideal solutions. In turn, the trade-off ranking calculates a distance of an alternative to the extreme solutions and other alternatives. Several test cases are considered to study the performance of each ranking technique in both types of uncertainties.
Coroiu, A. M.
We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk
The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Jae, M.; Moon, J.H.
In developing severe accident management strategies, an engineering decision would be made based on the available data and information that are vague, imprecise and uncertain by nature. These sorts of vagueness and uncertainty are due to lack of knowledge for the severe accident sequences of interest. The fuzzy set theory offers a possibility of handling these sorts of data and information. In this paper, the possibility to apply the decision-making method based on fuzzy set theory to the evaluation of the accident management strategies at a nuclear power plant is scrutinized. The fuzzy decision-making method uses linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers to represent the decision-maker's subjective assessments for the decision alternatives according to the decision criteria. The fuzzy mean operator is used to aggregate the decision-maker's subjective assessments, while the total integral value method is used to rank the decision alternatives. As a case study, the proposed method is applied to evaluating the accident management strategies at a nuclear power plant
Full Text Available This paper deals with looking for the optimal configuration of automated assembly line model placed within Department of Cybernetics and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI. In order to solve this problem, Stateflow model of each configuration was created to simulate the behaviour of particular assembly line configuration. Outputs from these models were used as inputs into the multiobjective decision making process. Multi-objective decision-making methods were subsequently used to find the optimal configuration of assembly line. Paper describes the whole process of solving this task, from building the models to choosing the best configuration. Specifically, the problem was resolved using the experts’ evaluation method for evaluating the weights of every decision-making criterion, while the ELECTRE III, TOPSIS and AGREPREF methods were used for ordering the possible solutions from the most to the least suitable alternative. Obtained results were compared and final solution of this multi-objective decisionmaking problem is chosen.
Ramli, N; Ohaga, E. O.; Jung, J. C.
This work provides a study on decision making modeling for a licensing method of a new nuclear power plant. SWOT analysis provides the licensing alternatives attributes, then the expectation from either COL or two step licensing method is decided by inputting the output from the Hurwitz mathematical model. From the analysis, COL shows the best candidate for both optimistic and pessimistic conditions
Ramli, N; Ohaga, E. O.; Jung, J. C. [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)
This work provides a study on decision making modeling for a licensing method of a new nuclear power plant. SWOT analysis provides the licensing alternatives attributes, then the expectation from either COL or two step licensing method is decided by inputting the output from the Hurwitz mathematical model. From the analysis, COL shows the best candidate for both optimistic and pessimistic conditions.
A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions
Full Text Available According to the demand for condition-based maintenance online decision making among a mission oriented fleet, an intelligent maintenance decision making method based on Multi-agent and heuristic rules is proposed. The process of condition-based maintenance within an aircraft fleet (each containing one or more Line Replaceable Modules based on multiple maintenance thresholds is analyzed. Then the process is abstracted into a Multi-Agent Model, a 2-layer model structure containing host negotiation and independent negotiation is established, and the heuristic rules applied to global and local maintenance decision making is proposed. Based on Contract Net Protocol and the heuristic rules, the maintenance decision making algorithm is put forward. Finally, a fleet consisting of 10 aircrafts on a 3-wave continuous mission is illustrated to verify this method. Simulation results indicate that this method can improve the availability of the fleet, meet mission demands, rationalize the utilization of support resources and provide support for online maintenance decision making among a mission oriented fleet.
Full Text Available In this paper, we will extend the VIKOR (VIsekriterijumska optimizacija i KOmpromisno Resenje method to multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM with interval neutrosophic numbers (INNs. Firstly, the basic concepts of INNs are briefly presented. The method first aggregates all individual decision-makers’ assessment information based on an interval neutrosophic weighted averaging (INWA operator, and then employs the extended classical VIKOR method to solve MAGDM problems with INNs. The validity and stability of this method are verified by example analysis and sensitivity analysis, and its superiority is illustrated by a comparison with the existing methods.
Full Text Available This paper presents a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making method for evaluating the performance of Cloud services in an uncertain environment. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used to better model the subjectivity and imprecision in the performance evaluation process. An effective algorithm is developed based on the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution and the Choquet integral operator for adequately solving the performance evaluation problem. An example is presented for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method for solving the multi-criteria group decision making problem in real situations.
Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali
This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…
Full Text Available The selection of appropriate alternative in the industrial environment is an important but, at the same time, a complex and difficult problem because of the availability of a wide range of alternatives and similarity among them. Therefore, there is a need for simple, systematic, and logical methods or mathematical tools to guide decision makers in considering a number of selection attributes and their interrelations. In this paper, a hybrid decision making method of graph theory and matrix approach (GTMA and analytical hierarchy process (AHP is proposed. Three examples are presented to illustrate the potential of the proposed GTMA-AHP method and the results are compared with the results obtained using other decision making methods.
Full Text Available An intuitionistic fuzzy VIKOR (IF-VIKOR method is proposed based on a new distance measure considering the waver of intuitionistic fuzzy information. The method aggregates all individual decision-makers’ assessment information based on intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging operator (IFWA, determines the weights of decision-makers and attributes objectively using intuitionistic fuzzy entropy, calculates the group utility and individual regret by the new distance measure, and then reaches a compromise solution. It can be effectively applied to multiattribute decision-making (MADM problems where the weights of decision-makers and attributes are completely unknown and the attribute values are intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs. The validity and stability of this method are verified by example analysis and sensitivity analysis, and its superiority is illustrated by the comparison with the existing method.
Leonardo Yuji Tamura
Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.
Full Text Available Recently, the TODIM has been used to solve multiple attribute decision making (MADM problems. The single-valued neutrosophic sets (SVNSs are useful tools to depict the uncertainty of the MADM. In this paper, we will extend the TODIM method to the MADM with the single-valued neutrosophic numbers (SVNNs. Firstly, the definition, comparison, and distance of SVNNs are briefly presented, and the steps of the classical TODIM method for MADM problems are introduced. Then, the extended classical TODIM method is proposed to deal with MADM problems with the SVNNs, and its significant characteristic is that it can fully consider the decision makers’ bounded rationality which is a real action in decision making. Furthermore, we extend the proposed model to interval neutrosophic sets (INSs. Finally, a numerical example is proposed.
Bai, Yu-Ting; Zhang, Bai-Hai; Wang, Xiao-Yi; Jin, Xue-Bo; Xu, Ji-Ping; Su, Ting-Li; Wang, Zhao-Yang
Algal bloom is a typical phenomenon of the eutrophication of rivers and lakes and makes the water dirty and smelly. It is a serious threat to water security and public health. Most scholars studying solutions for this pollution have studied the principles of remediation approaches, but few have studied the decision-making and selection of the approaches. Existing research uses simplex decision-making information which is highly subjective and uses little of the data from water quality sensors. To utilize these data and solve the rational decision-making problem, a novel group decision-making method is proposed using the sensor data with fuzzy evaluation information. Firstly, the optimal similarity aggregation model of group opinions is built based on the modified similarity measurement of Vague values. Secondly, the approaches' ability to improve the water quality indexes is expressed using Vague evaluation methods. Thirdly, the water quality sensor data are analyzed to match the features of the alternative approaches with grey relational degrees. This allows the best remediation approach to be selected to meet the current water status. Finally, the selection model is applied to the remediation of algal bloom in lakes. The results show this method's rationality and feasibility when using different data from different sources.
Full Text Available This paper presents a new, nonlinear, multicriteria, decision-making method: the characteristic objects (COMET. This approach, which can be characterized as a fuzzy reference model, determines a measurement standard for decision-making problems. This model is distinguished by a constant set of specially chosen characteristic objects that are independent of the alternatives. After identifying a multicriteria model, this method can be used to compare any number of decisional objects (alternatives and select the best one. In the COMET, in contrast to other methods, the rank-reversal phenomenon is not observed. Rank-reversal is a paradoxical feature in the decision-making methods, which is caused by determining the absolute evaluations of considered alternatives on the basis of the alternatives themselves. In the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP method and similar methods, when a new alternative is added to the original alternative set, the evaluation base and the resulting evaluations of all objects change. A great advantage of the COMET is its ability to identify not only linear but also nonlinear multicriteria models of decision makers. This identification is based not on a ranking of component criteria of the multicriterion but on a ranking of a larger set of characteristic objects (characteristic alternatives that are independent of the small set of alternatives analyzed in a given problem. As a result, the COMET is free of the faults of other methods.
Judith P. Andersen
Full Text Available Police safety and use of force decisions during critical incidents are an ongoing source of concern for both police practitioners and the public. Prior research in the area of police performance reveals that psychological and physiological stress responses during critical incidents can shape the outcome of the incident, either positively or negatively. The goal of this study was to test a training method to improve use of force decision making among police. This randomized controlled pilot study consisted of training officers to apply techniques to enhance psychological and physiological control during stressful critical incidents. Of a pool of 80 police officers, potential participants were invited based on equivalent age, years of experience, physiological characteristics (i.e., body mass index [BMI] and cardiovascular reactivity, and expertise. Results revealed that the intervention group displayed significantly better physiological control, situational awareness, and overall performance, and made a greater number of correct use of force decisions than officers in the control group (all ps < .01. The relevant improvements in use of force decision-making found in this pilot study indicate that this training method warrants further investigation. Improved use of force decision making directly translates into potential lifesaving decisions for police and the civilians they are working with.
Lee, G.; Jun, K. S.; Chung, E.-S.
This study proposes an improved group decision making (GDM) framework that combines the VIKOR method with data fuzzification to quantify the spatial flood vulnerability including multiple criteria. In general, GDM method is an effective tool for formulating a compromise solution that involves various decision makers since various stakeholders may have different perspectives on their flood risk/vulnerability management responses. The GDM approach is designed to achieve consensus building that reflects the viewpoints of each participant. The fuzzy VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems with conflicting and noncommensurable criteria. This comprising method can be used to obtain a nearly ideal solution according to all established criteria. This approach effectively can propose some compromising decisions by combining the GDM method and fuzzy VIKOR method. The spatial flood vulnerability of the southern Han River using the GDM approach combined with the fuzzy VIKOR method was compared with the spatial flood vulnerability using general MCDM methods, such as the fuzzy TOPSIS and classical GDM methods (i.e., Borda, Condorcet, and Copeland). As a result, the proposed fuzzy GDM approach can reduce the uncertainty in the data confidence and weight derivation techniques. Thus, the combination of the GDM approach with the fuzzy VIKOR method can provide robust prioritization because it actively reflects the opinions of various groups and considers uncertainty in the input data.
Whitty, Jennifer A; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn R; Scuffham, Paul A
Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) and the Juster scale are accepted methods for the prediction of individual purchase probabilities. Nevertheless, these methods have seldom been applied to a social decision-making context. To gain an overview of social decisions for a decision-making population through data triangulation, these two methods were used to understand purchase probability in a social decision-making context. We report an exploratory social decision-making study of pharmaceutical subsidy in Australia. A DCE and selected Juster scale profiles were presented to current and past members of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee and its Economic Subcommittee. Across 66 observations derived from 11 respondents for 6 different pharmaceutical profiles, there was a small overall median difference of 0.024 in the predicted probability of public subsidy (p = 0.003), with the Juster scale predicting the higher likelihood. While consistency was observed at the extremes of the probability scale, the funding probability differed over the mid-range of profiles. There was larger variability in the DCE than Juster predictions within each individual respondent, suggesting the DCE is better able to discriminate between profiles. However, large variation was observed between individuals in the Juster scale but not DCE predictions. It is important to use multiple methods to obtain a complete picture of the probability of purchase or public subsidy in a social decision-making context until further research can elaborate on our findings. This exploratory analysis supports the suggestion that the mixed logit model, which was used for the DCE analysis, may fail to adequately account for preference heterogeneity in some contexts.
Brenda L Connors
Full Text Available People vary in the way in which they approach decision making, which impacts real-world behavior. There has been a surge of interest in moving beyond reliance on self-report measures to capture such individual differences. Particular emphasis has been placed on devising and applying a range of methodologies that include experimental, neuroscience, and observational paradigms. This paper provides a selective review of recent studies that illustrate the methods and yield of these approaches in terms of generating a deeper understanding of decision-making style and the notable differences that can be found across individuals.
C. L. Karmaker
Full Text Available Strategic warehouse location-allocation problem is a multi-staged decision-making problem having both numerical and qualitative criteria. In order to survive in the global business scenario by improving supply chain performance, companies must examine the cross-functional drivers in the optimization of logistic systems. A meticulous observation makes evident that strategy warehouse location selection has become challenging as the number of alternatives and conflicting criteria increases. The issue becomes particularly problematic when the conventional concept has been applied in dealing with the imprecise nature of the linguistic assessment. The qualitative decisions for selection process are often complicated by the fact that often it is imprecise for the decision makers. Such problem must be overcome with defined efforts. Fuzzy multi-criteria decision making methods have been used in this research as aids in making location-allocation decisions. The anticipated methods in this research consist of two steps at its core. In the first step, the criteria of the existing problem are inspected and identified and then the weights of the sector and subsector are determined that have come to light by using Fuzzy AHP. In the second step, eligible alternatives are ranked by using TOPSIS and Fuzzy TOPSIS comparatively. A demonstration of the application of these methodologies in a real life problem is presented.
Muhammad, Akram; Musavarah, Sarwar
In this research study, we introduce the concept of bipolar neutrosophic graphs. We present the dominating and independent sets of bipolar neutrosophic graphs. We describe novel multiple criteria decision making methods based on bipolar neutrosophic sets and bipolar neutrosophic graphs. We also develop an algorithm for computing domination in bipolar neutrosophic graphs.
Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky
Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis
Full Text Available Information system (IS project selection is of critical importance to every organization in dynamic competing environment. The aim of this paper is to develop a hybrid multicriteria group decision making approach based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory for IS project selection. The decision makers’ assessment information can be expressed in the form of real numbers, interval-valued numbers, linguistic variables, and intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs. All these evaluation pieces of information can be transformed to the form of IFNs. Intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging (IFWA operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers into a group opinion. Intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to obtain the entropy weights of the criteria. TOPSIS method combined with intuitionistic fuzzy set is proposed to select appropriate IS project in group decision making environment. Finally, a numerical example for information system projects selection is given to illustrate application of hybrid multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM method based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory and TOPSIS method.
Full Text Available Algal bloom is a typical phenomenon of the eutrophication of rivers and lakes and makes the water dirty and smelly. It is a serious threat to water security and public health. Most scholars studying solutions for this pollution have studied the principles of remediation approaches, but few have studied the decision-making and selection of the approaches. Existing research uses simplex decision-making information which is highly subjective and uses little of the data from water quality sensors. To utilize these data and solve the rational decision-making problem, a novel group decision-making method is proposed using the sensor data with fuzzy evaluation information. Firstly, the optimal similarity aggregation model of group opinions is built based on the modified similarity measurement of Vague values. Secondly, the approaches’ ability to improve the water quality indexes is expressed using Vague evaluation methods. Thirdly, the water quality sensor data are analyzed to match the features of the alternative approaches with grey relational degrees. This allows the best remediation approach to be selected to meet the current water status. Finally, the selection model is applied to the remediation of algal bloom in lakes. The results show this method’s rationality and feasibility when using different data from different sources.
Full Text Available Due to the complex parameters of a solar power system, the designer not only must think about the load demand but also needs to consider the price, weight, and annual power generating capacity (APGC and maximum power of the solar system. It is an important task to find the optimal solar power system with many parameters. Therefore, this paper presents a novel decision-making method based on the extension theory; we call it extension decision-making method (EDMM. Using the EDMM can make it quick to select the optimal solar power system. The paper proposed this method not only to provide a useful estimated tool for the solar system engineers but also to supply the important reference with the installation of solar systems to the consumer.
Full Text Available The construction of bridges has been necessary for societies since ancient times, when the communication between and within towns, cities or communities was established. Until recently, the economic factor has been the only one considered in the decision-making of any type of construction process for bridges. However, nowadays, the objective should not be just the construction of bridges, but of sustainable bridges. Economic, social and environmental factors, which form the three pillars of sustainability, have been recently added. These three factors usually have conflicting perspectives. The decision-making process allows the conversion of a judgment into a rational procedure to reach a compromise solution. The aim of this paper is to review different methods and sustainable criteria used for decision-making at each life-cycle phase of a bridge, from design to recycling or demolition. This paper examines 77 journal articles for which different methods have been used. The most used methods are briefly described. In addition, a statistical study was carried out on the Multiple Attribute Decision-making papers reviewed.
Full Text Available Managing natural resources is a group multiple criteria decision making problem. In this paper the analytic hierarchy process is the chosen method for handling the natural resource problems. The one decision maker problem is discussed and, three methods: the eigenvector method, data envelopment analysis method, and logarithmic least squares method are presented for the derivation of the priority vector. Further, the group analytic hierarchy process is discussed and six methods for the aggregation of individual judgments or priorities: weighted arithmetic mean method, weighted geometric mean method, and four methods based on data envelopment analysis are compared. The case study on land use in Slovenia is applied. The conclusions review consistency, sensitivity analyses, and some future directions of research.
Kibira, Deogratias; Hatim, Qais; Kumara, Soundar; Shao, Guodong
Modern manufacturing systems are installed with smart devices such as sensors that monitor system performance and collect data to manage uncertainties in their operations. However, multiple parameters and variables affect system performance, making it impossible for a human to make informed decisions without systematic methodologies and tools. Further, the large volume and variety of streaming data collected is beyond simulation analysis alone. Simulation models are run with well-prepared data. Novel approaches, combining different methods, are needed to use this data for making guided decisions. This paper proposes a methodology whereby parameters that most affect system performance are extracted from the data using data analytics methods. These parameters are used to develop scenarios for simulation inputs; system optimizations are performed on simulation data outputs. A case study of a machine shop demonstrates the proposed methodology. This paper also reviews candidate standards for data collection, simulation, and systems interfaces. PMID:28690363
Full Text Available The interval neutrosophic set (INS can be easier to express the incomplete, indeterminate and inconsistent information, and TOPSIS is one of the most commonly used and effective method for multiple attribute decision making, however, in general, it can only process the attribute values with crisp numbers. In this paper, we have extended TOPSIS to INS, and with respect to the multiple attribute decision making problems in which the attribute weights are unknown and the attribute values take the form of INSs, we proposed an expanded TOPSIS method. Firstly, the definition of INS and the operational laws are given, and distance between INSs is defined. Then, the attribute weights are determined based on the Maximizing deviation method and an extended TOPSIS method is developed to rank the alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is given to verify the developed approach and to demonstrate its practicality and effectiveness.
King, Lindy; Harrington, Ann; Linedale, Ecushla; Tanner, Elizabeth
To undertake a mixed methods thematic literature review that explored how elderly adults approached decision-making in regard to their health care following discharge. A critical time for appropriate health decisions occurs during hospital discharge planning with nursing staff. However, little is known how the 89% of elderly living at home make decisions regarding their health care. Research into older adults' management of chronic conditions emerges as an important step to potentially encourage symptom monitoring, prevent missed care and detect deterioration. All should reduce the risk of hospital re-admission. A mixed methods thematic literature review was undertaken. The structure followed the PRISMA reporting guidelines for systematic reviews recommended by the EQUATOR network. PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and Scopus online databases were searched using keywords, inclusion and exclusion criteria. References drawn from relevant publications, identified by experts and published between 1995 and 2017 were also considered. Twenty-five qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods studies and reviews were critically appraised (CASP 2013) before inclusion in the review. Analysis of each study's findings was undertaken using Braun and Clarke's (2006) steps to identify major themes and sub-themes. Four main themes associated with health-related decision-making in the elderly were identified: "the importance of maintaining independence," "decision making style," "management of conditions at home" and "discharge planning." Health care decision preferences in the elderly emerged as highly complex and influenced by multiple factors. Development of a tool to assess these components has been recommended. Nurses play a vital role in exploring and understanding the influence that maintaining independence has with each patient. This understanding provides an initial step toward development of a tool to assist collaboration between
Bartelink, Cora; van Yperen, Tom A.; ten Berge, Ingrid J.
Assessment and decision-making in child maltreatment cases is difficult. Practitioners face many uncertainties and obstacles during their assessment and decision-making process. Research exhibits shortcomings in this decision-making process. The purpose of this literature review is to identify and
Full Text Available The permutation method of multiple attribute decision making has two significant deficiencies: high computational time and wrong priority output in some problem instances. In this paper, a novel permutation method called adjusted permutation method (APM is proposed to compensate deficiencies of conventional permutation method. We propose Tabu search (TS and particle swarm optimization (PSO to find suitable solutions at a reasonable computational time for large problem instances. The proposed method is examined using some numerical examples to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The preliminary results show that both approaches provide competent solutions in relatively reasonable amounts of time while TS performs better to solve APM.
Full Text Available According to the case-based reasoning method and prospect theory, this paper mainly focuses on finding a way to obtain decision-makers’ preferences and the criterion weights for stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems and classify alternatives. Firstly, we construct a new score function for an intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN considering the decision-making environment. Then, we aggregate the decision-making information in different natural states according to the prospect theory and test decision-making matrices. A mathematical programming model based on a case-based reasoning method is presented to obtain the criterion weights. Moreover, in the original decision-making problem, we integrate all the intuitionistic fuzzy decision-making matrices into an expectation matrix using the expected utility theory and classify or rank the alternatives by the case-based reasoning method. Finally, two illustrative examples are provided to illustrate the implementation process and applicability of the developed method.
This paper reports on ways of improving the reliability of products and systems in this country if we are to survive as a first-rate industrial power. The use of statistical techniques have, since the 1920s, been viewed as one of the methods for testing quality and estimating the level of quality in a universe of output. Statistical quality control is not relevant, generally, to improving systems in an industry like yours, but certainly the use of probability concepts is of significance. In addition, when it is recognized that part of the problem involves making decisions under uncertainty, it becomes clear that techniques such as sequential decision making and Bayesian analysis become major methodological approaches that must be utilized
Full Text Available A great deal of uncertain information which is difficult to quantify is taken into account by farmers and experts in the enterprise when making decisions. We are interested in the problems of the implementation of a rabbit-breeding farm. One of the first decisions to be taken refers to the design or type of structure for housing the animals, which is determined by the level of environmental control sought to be maintained in its interior. A farmer was consulted, and his answers were incorporated into the analysis, by means of the fuzzy TOPSIS methodology. The main purpose of this paper is to study the problem by means of the fuzzy TOPSIS method as multicriteria decision making, when the information was given in linguistic terms.
Full Text Available Suitable selection of the emergency alternatives is a critical issue in emergency response system of Unattended Train Operation (UTO metro system of China. However, there is no available method for dispatcher group in Operating Control Center (OCC to evaluate the decision under emergency situation. It was found that the emergency decision making in UTO metro system is relative with the preferences and the importance of multi-dispatcher in emergency. Regarding these factors, this paper presents a hybrid method to determinate the priority weights of emergency alternatives, which aggregates the preference matrix by constructing the emergency response task model based on the Weighted Ordered Weighted Averaging (WOWA operator. This calculation approach derives the importance weights depending on the dispatcher emergency tasks and integrates it into the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA operator weights based on a fuzzy membership relation. A case from train fire is given to demonstrate the feasibility and practicability of the proposed methods for Group Multi-Criteria Decision Making (GMCDM in emergency management of UTO metro system. The innovation of this research is paving the way for a systematic emergency decision-making solution which connects the automatic metro emergency response system with the GMCDM theory.
Obtaining a fast and reliable decision is an important issue in brain-computer interfaces (BCI), particularly in practical real-time applications such as wheelchair or neuroprosthetic control. In this study, the EEG signals were firstly analyzed with a power projective base method. Then we were applied a decision-making model, the sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), for single-trial classification of motor imagery movement events. The unique strength of this proposed classification method lies in its accumulative process, which increases the discriminative power as more and more evidence is observed over time. The properties of the method were illustrated on thirteen subjects' recordings from three datasets. Results showed that our proposed power projective method outperformed two benchmark methods for every subject. Moreover, with sequential classifier, the accuracies across subjects were significantly higher than that with nonsequential ones. The average maximum accuracy of the SPRT method was 84.1%, as compared with 82.3% accuracy for the sequential Bayesian (SB) method. The proposed SPRT method provides an explicit relationship between stopping time, thresholds, and error, which is important for balancing the time-accuracy trade-off. These results suggest SPRT would be useful in speeding up decision-making while trading off errors in BCI. PMID:29348781
Tulenheimo, V.; Thun, R.; Backman, M.
This report concentrates on the models and methods used for internal environmental decision-making by company management. The amount of available models aiming at this purpose is numerous. The methods differ from each other for example in their comprehensiveness, in the types of effects included, in the degree of quantification, and in the method used for weighting of environmental impacts. Different types of models and methods give the results of the valuation in qualitative, in non-monetary, or even in monetary units. Traditional financial analysis is, however, still used to compare different investment options. First-hand experiences of model applications show that a lot of work is still needed before the new integrated methodologies can be incorporated into existing decision-making systems in standardized forms. Developers of methodologies and software systems for environmental costing will benefit from co-operation and from inputs by cross-functional teams of the company. The future will show if it is possible to combine the best features of useful methods and find a solution which is leading to facilitated company environmental decision-making which is undisputed and reliable
Full Text Available Abstract Background Multidisciplinary guideline development groups (GDGs have considerable influence on UK healthcare policy and practice, but previous research suggests that research evidence is a variable influence on GDG recommendations. The Evidence into Recommendations (EiR study has been set up to document social-psychological influences on GDG decision-making. In this paper we aim to evaluate the relevance of existing qualitative methodologies to the EiR study, and to develop a method best-suited to capturing influences on GDG decision-making. Methods A research team comprised of three postdoctoral research fellows and a multidisciplinary steering group assessed the utility of extant qualitative methodologies for coding verbatim GDG meeting transcripts and semi-structured interviews with GDG members. A unique configuration of techniques was developed to permit data reduction and analysis. Results Our method incorporates techniques from thematic analysis, grounded theory analysis, content analysis, and framework analysis. Thematic analysis of individual interviews conducted with group members at the start and end of the GDG process defines discrete problem areas to guide data extraction from GDG meeting transcripts. Data excerpts are coded both inductively and deductively, using concepts taken from theories of decision-making, social influence and group processes. These codes inform a framework analysis to describe and explain incidents within GDG meetings. We illustrate the application of the method by discussing some preliminary findings of a study of a National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE acute physical health GDG. Conclusion This method is currently being applied to study the meetings of three of NICE GDGs. These cover topics in acute physical health, mental health and public health, and comprise a total of 45 full-day meetings. The method offers potential for application to other health care and decision-making
Liu, Yang; Li, Hongyan
Decision-making problems in emergency response are usually risky and uncertain due to the limited decision data and possible evolvement of emergency scenarios. This paper focuses on a risk decisionmaking problem in emergency response with several distinct characteristics including dynamic...... evolvement process of emergency, multiple scenarios, and impact of response actions on the emergency scenarios. A method based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is proposed to solve the problem. By analyzing the evolvement process of emergency, the Fault Tree (FT) is constructed to describe the logical relations...
Gardner, Benjamin; Davidson, Rosemary; McAteer, John; Michie, Susan
Multidisciplinary guideline development groups (GDGs) have considerable influence on UK healthcare policy and practice, but previous research suggests that research evidence is a variable influence on GDG recommendations. The Evidence into Recommendations (EiR) study has been set up to document social-psychological influences on GDG decision-making. In this paper we aim to evaluate the relevance of existing qualitative methodologies to the EiR study, and to develop a method best-suited to capturing influences on GDG decision-making. A research team comprised of three postdoctoral research fellows and a multidisciplinary steering group assessed the utility of extant qualitative methodologies for coding verbatim GDG meeting transcripts and semi-structured interviews with GDG members. A unique configuration of techniques was developed to permit data reduction and analysis. Our method incorporates techniques from thematic analysis, grounded theory analysis, content analysis, and framework analysis. Thematic analysis of individual interviews conducted with group members at the start and end of the GDG process defines discrete problem areas to guide data extraction from GDG meeting transcripts. Data excerpts are coded both inductively and deductively, using concepts taken from theories of decision-making, social influence and group processes. These codes inform a framework analysis to describe and explain incidents within GDG meetings. We illustrate the application of the method by discussing some preliminary findings of a study of a National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) acute physical health GDG. This method is currently being applied to study the meetings of three of NICE GDGs. These cover topics in acute physical health, mental health and public health, and comprise a total of 45 full-day meetings. The method offers potential for application to other health care and decision-making groups.
Contemporary enterprises are largely dependent on Information Technology (IT), which makes decision making on IT matters important. There are numerous issues that confuse IT decision making, including contradictive business needs, financial constraints, lack of communication between business and IT stakeholders and difficulty in understanding the often heterogeneous and integrated IT systems. The discipline of IT governance aims at providing the decision making structures, processes, and rela...
Full Text Available A concept of interval-valued triangular fuzzy soft set is presented, and some operations of “AND,” “OR,” intersection, union and complement, and so forth are defined. Then some relative properties are discussed and several conclusions are drawn. A dynamic decision making model is built based on the definition of interval-valued triangular fuzzy soft set, in which period weight is determined by the exponential decay method. The arithmetic weighted average operator of interval-valued triangular fuzzy soft set is given by the aggregating thought, thereby aggregating interval-valued triangular fuzzy soft sets of different time-series into a collective interval-valued triangular fuzzy soft set. The formulas of selection and decision values of different objects are given; therefore the optimal decision making is achieved according to the decision values. Finally, the steps of this method are concluded, and one example is given to explain the application of the method.
Allah Bukhsh, Zaharah; Stipanovic, Irina; Klanker, Giel; Hoj, Niels; Imam, Boulent; Xenidis, Yiannis; Mandić Ivanković, Ana
In bridge management systems, multi-objective decision-making has emerged as a decision support technique to integrate various technical information and stakeholder values. Different multicriteria decision making techniques and tools have been developed in the last three decades. This paper presents
Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.
Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such
Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...
Mustonen, Raimo; Sinkko, Kari [STUK-Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland). Research and Environmental Surveillance; Haemaelaeinen, Raimo P. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Helsinki (Finland). System Analysis Laboratory
International organisations in radiation protection have for many years recommended that key players, e.g. authorities, expert organisations, industry, producers of foodstuffs and even the public, should be involved in the planning of protective actions in case of a nuclear accident. In this work, we have developed and tested a facilitated workshop method where representatives from various fields of the society aim to identify and evaluate systematically protective actions. Decision analysis techniques have been applied in workshops in order to find out the most feasible countermeasure strategies and to make the decision making-process transparent and auditable. The work builds on case studies where it was assumed that a hypothetical accident had led to a release of considerable amounts of radionuclides and therefore various types of countermeasures should be considered. This paper provides experiences gained in several European countries on how to facilitate this kind of workshops and how modern decision analysis techniques can be applied in the decision-making process.
Mustonen, Raimo; Sinkko, Kari; Haemaelaeinen, Raimo P.
International organisations in radiation protection have for many years recommended that key players, e.g. authorities, expert organisations, industry, producers of foodstuffs and even the public, should be involved in the planning of protective actions in case of a nuclear accident. In this work, we have developed and tested a facilitated workshop method where representatives from various fields of the society aim to identify and evaluate systematically protective actions. Decision analysis techniques have been applied in workshops in order to find out the most feasible countermeasure strategies and to make the decision making-process transparent and auditable. The work builds on case studies where it was assumed that a hypothetical accident had led to a release of considerable amounts of radionuclides and therefore various types of countermeasures should be considered. This paper provides experiences gained in several European countries on how to facilitate this kind of workshops and how modern decision analysis techniques can be applied in the decision-making process
Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P
We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.
Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)
The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication
Zhang, Ling; Zhou, Peng; Newton, Sidney; Fang, Jian-xin; Zhou, De-qun; Zhang, Lu-ping
Promoting the utilization of clean energy has been identified as one potential solution to addressing environmental pollution and achieving sustainable development in many countries around the world. Evaluating clean energy alternatives includes a requirement to balance multiple conflict criteria, including technology, environment, economy and society, all of which are incommensurate and interdependent. Traditional MCDM (multi-criteria decision making) methods, such as the weighted average method, often fail to aggregate such criteria consistently. In this paper, an improved MCDM method based on fuzzy measure and integral is developed and applied to evaluate four primary clean energy options for Jiangsu Province, China. The results confirm that the preferred clean energy option for Jiangsu is solar photovoltaic, followed by wind, biomass and finally nuclear. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to evaluate the values of clean energy resources for Jiangsu. The ordered weighted average method is also applied to compare the method mentioned above in our empirical study. The results show that the improved MCDM method provides higher discrimination between alternative clean energy alternatives. - Highlights: • Interactions among evaluation criteria of clean energy resources are taken into account. • An improved multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method is proposed based on entropy weight method, fuzzy measure and integral. • Clean energy resources of Jiangsu are evaluated with the improved MCDM method, and their ranks are identified.
Cinicioglu Esma Nur
Full Text Available Dempster−Shafer belief function theory can address a wider class of uncertainty than the standard probability theory does, and this fact appeals the researchers in operations research society for potential application areas. However, the lack of a decision theory of belief functions gives rise to the need to use the probability transformation methods for decision making. For representation of statistical evidence, the class of consonant belief functions is used which is not closed under Dempster’s rule of combination but is closed under Walley’s rule of combination. In this research, it is shown that the outcomes obtained using both Dempster’s and Walley’s rules do result in different probability distributions when pignistic transformation is used. However, when plausibility transformation is used, they do result in the same probability distribution. This result shows that the choice of the combination rule and probability transformation method may have a significant effect on decision making since it may change the choice of the decision alternative selected. This result is illustrated via an example of missile type identification.
Hankins, W. W.; Pennington, J. E.; Barker, L. K.
The state of the art in the automation of decision making and problem solving is reviewed. The information upon which the report is based was derived from literature searches, visits to university and government laboratories performing basic research in the area, and a 1980 Langley Research Center sponsored conferences on the subject. It is the contention of the authors that the technology in this area is being generated by research primarily in the three disciplines of Artificial Intelligence, Control Theory, and Operations Research. Under the assumption that the state of the art in decision making and problem solving is reflected in the problems being solved, specific problems and methods of their solution are often discussed to elucidate particular aspects of the subject. Synopses of the following major topic areas comprise most of the report: (1) detection and recognition; (2) planning; and scheduling; (3) learning; (4) theorem proving; (5) distributed systems; (6) knowledge bases; (7) search; (8) heuristics; and (9) evolutionary programming.
Zhou, Huan; Wang, Jian-qiang; Zhang, Hong-yu; Chen, Xiao-hong
Linguistic hesitant fuzzy sets (LHFSs), which can be used to represent decision-makers' qualitative preferences as well as reflect their hesitancy and inconsistency, have attracted a great deal of attention due to their flexibility and efficiency. This paper focuses on a multi-criteria decision-making approach that combines LHFSs with the evidential reasoning (ER) method. After reviewing existing studies of LHFSs, a new order relationship and Hamming distance between LHFSs are introduced and some linguistic scale functions are applied. Then, the ER algorithm is used to aggregate the distributed assessment of each alternative. Subsequently, the set of aggregated alternatives on criteria are further aggregated to get the overall value of each alternative. Furthermore, a nonlinear programming model is developed and genetic algorithms are used to obtain the optimal weights of the criteria. Finally, two illustrative examples are provided to show the feasibility and usability of the method, and comparison analysis with the existing method is made.
The dynamic development in the business organizations dictates the permanent necessity of decision-making. Because of its impact and the expected consequences, continuous decisionmaking is a critical moment for the business and an important duty for managers, in order to achieve the set goals. Decision-making is important as it leads to growth and development of the business. Thus the decision-making acknowledgement and its factors is an important duty for business perspective. The paper pres...
Zhang Jin; Cai Qi; Zhang Fan; Chang Ling
Given the complexity in multi-attribute decision-making on nuclear accident emergency, and by integrating subjective weight and impersonal weight of each evaluating index, a decision-making model for emergency plan at nuclear power stations is established with the application of improved TOPSIS model. The testing results indicated that the improved TOPSIS-based multi-attribute decision-making has a better assessment results. (authors)
Yun, Yeboon; Arakawa, Masao; Hiroshi, Ishikawa; Nakayama, Hirotaka
It has been proved in problems with 2-objective functions that genetic algorithms (GAs) are well utilized for generating Pareto optimal solutions, and then decision making can be easily performed on the basis of visualized Pareto optimal solutions. However, GAs are difficult to visualize Pareto optimal solutions in cases in which the number of objective function is more than 4. Hence, it is trouble some to grasp the trade-off among many objective functions, and decision makers hesitate to choose a final solution from a number of Pareto optimal solutions. In order to solve these problems, we suggest an aspiration level approach to the method using the generalized data envelopment analysis and GAs. We show that the proposed method supports decision makers to choose their desirable solution from many Pareto optimal solutions. Furthermore, it will be seen that engineering design can be effectively done by the proposed method, which makes generation of several Pareto optimal solutions close to the aspiration level and trade-off analysis easily
Full Text Available Technological and global changes nowadays enable air conditioning sector to gain a higher importance. Short and long term risks for comsumers, the use of air conditioningtechnology with cost minimization, the increase of product charesteristics and firms, and the variability of product features have led to the need for multi-criteria decision. Therefore, caring the multiple criteria and the alternatives, the multi-criteria decision making techniques are taken to the scope of application. The purpose of the study is to determine the factors which affect the decision of air conditioning choice and to present the preference ranking suggestion. Having the nearly have got the approximately equivalent heating and cooling capacity, air conditionings in A+ class are included in the scope of related research. In application, when choosing air conditioning products, Topsis and Vikor that are multi-criteria decision-making methods are used and the results are compared and evaluated. When choosing air conditioning products, preference plansa re presented in the application.
Full Text Available PROMETHEE is one of methods, which fall into multi-criteria analysis (MCA. The MCA, as the name itself indicates, deals with the evaluation of particular variants according to several criteria. Developed software application (MCA8 for the support of multi-criteria decision-making was upgraded about PROMETHEE method and a graphic tool, which enables the execution of the sensitivity analysis. This analysis is used to ascertain how a given model output depends upon the input parameters. The MCA8 software application with mentioned graphic upgrade was developed for purposes of solving multi-criteria decision tasks. In the MCA8 is possible to perform sensitivity analysis by a simple form – through column graphs. We can change criteria significances (weights in these column graphs directly and watch the changes of the order of variants immediately.
This book provides essential background knowledge on the development of model-based real-world solutions in the field of control and decision making for water systems. It presents system engineering methods for modelling surface water and groundwater resources as well as water transportation systems (rivers, channels and pipelines). The models in turn provide information on both the water quantity (flow rates, water levels) of surface water and groundwater and on water quality. In addition, methods for modelling and predicting water demand are described. Sample applications of the models are presented, such as a water allocation decision support system for semi-arid regions, a multiple-criteria control model for run-of-river hydropower plants, and a supply network simulation for public services.
Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel approach to cope with the multi-criteria group decision-making problems. We give the pairwise comparisons based on the best-worst-method (BWM, which can decrease comparison times. Additionally, our comparison results are determined with the positive and negative aspects. In order to deal with the decision matrices effectively, we consider the elimination and choice translation reality (ELECTRE III method under the intuitionistic multiplicative preference relations environment. The ELECTRE III method is designed for a double-automatic system. Under a certain limitation, without bothering the decision-makers to reevaluate the alternatives, this system can adjust some special elements that have the most influence on the group’s satisfaction degree. Moreover, the proposed method is suitable for both the intuitionistic multiplicative preference relation and the interval valued fuzzy preference relations through the transformation formula. An illustrative example is followed to demonstrate the rationality and availability of the novel method.
Full Text Available The Company is one of the jobs that was founded to reduce unemployment. The progress of a company is determined by the human resources that exist within the company. So, the selection of workers will join the company need to be selected first. The hardest thing in making a selection factor is the effort to eliminate the subjectivity of the personnel manager so that every choice made is objective based on the criteria expected by the company. To help determine who is accepted as an employee in the company, we need a method that can provide a valid decision. Therefore, we use Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making with Simple Additive Weighting method (SAW to decide to make in human resource recruitment. This method was chosen because it can provide the best alternative from several alternatives. In this case, the alternative is that the applicants or candidates. This research was conducted by finding the weight values for each attribute. Then do the ranking process that determines the optimal alternative to the best applicants who qualify as employees of the company. Based on calculations by the SAW obtained the two highest ranking results are A5 (alternative 5 and A1 (alternative 1, to obtain two candidates received.
Dolan, James G
Current models of healthcare quality recommend that patient management decisions be evidence-based and patient-centered. Evidence-based decisions require a thorough understanding of current information regarding the natural history of disease and the anticipated outcomes of different management options. Patient-centered decisions incorporate patient preferences, values, and unique personal circumstances into the decision making process and actively involve both patients along with health care providers as much as possible. Fundamentally, therefore, evidence-based, patient-centered decisions are multi-dimensional and typically involve multiple decision makers.Advances in the decision sciences have led to the development of a number of multiple criteria decision making methods. These multi-criteria methods are designed to help people make better choices when faced with complex decisions involving several dimensions. They are especially helpful when there is a need to combine "hard data" with subjective preferences, to make trade-offs between desired outcomes, and to involve multiple decision makers. Evidence-based, patient-centered clinical decision making has all of these characteristics. This close match suggests that clinical decision support systems based on multi-criteria decision making techniques have the potential to enable patients and providers to carry out the tasks required to implement evidence-based, patient-centered care effectively and efficiently in clinical settings.The goal of this paper is to give readers a general introduction to the range of multi-criteria methods available and show how they could be used to support clinical decision-making. Methods discussed include the balance sheet, the even swap method, ordinal ranking methods, direct weighting methods, multi-attribute decision analysis, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
Waldrop, Deborah P; Meeker, Mary Ann
This study explored the process of decision making about hospice enrollment and identified factors that influence the timing of that decision. This study employed an exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional design and was conducted using qualitative methods. In-depth in-person semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 hospice patients and 55 caregivers after 2 weeks of hospice care. The study was guided by Janis and Mann's conflict theory model (CTM) of decision making. Qualitative data analysis involved a directed content analysis using concepts from the CTM. A model of hospice enrollment decision making is presented. Concepts from the CTM (appraisal, surveying and weighing the alternatives, deliberations, adherence) were used as an organizing framework to illustrate the dynamics. Distinct differences were found by diagnosis (cancer vs. other chronic illness, e.g., heart and lung diseases) during the pre-encounter phase or before the hospice referral but no differences emerged during the post-encounter phase. Differences in decision making by diagnosis suggest the need for research about effective means for tailored communication in end-of-life decision making by type of illness. Recognition that decision making about hospice admission varies is important for clinicians who aim to provide person-centered and family-focused care.
The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...
Jain, Lakhmi C
The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c
Pei, Lidan; Jin, Feifei; Ni, Zhiwei; Chen, Huayou; Tao, Zhifu
As a new preference structure, the intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic preference relation (IFLPR) was recently introduced to efficiently deal with situations in which the membership and non-membership are represented as linguistic terms. In this paper, we study the issues of additive consistency and the derivation of the intuitionistic fuzzy weight vector of an IFLPR. First, the new concepts of order consistency, additive consistency and weak transitivity for IFLPRs are introduced, and followed by a discussion of the characterisation about additive consistent IFLPRs. Then, a parameterised transformation approach is investigated to convert the normalised intuitionistic fuzzy weight vector into additive consistent IFLPRs. After that, a linear optimisation model is established to derive the normalised intuitionistic fuzzy weights for IFLPRs, and a consistency index is defined to measure the deviation degree between an IFLPR and its additive consistent IFLPR. Furthermore, we develop an automatic iterative decision-making method to improve the IFLPRs with unacceptable additive consistency until the adjusted IFLPRs are acceptable additive consistent, and it helps the decision-maker to obtain the reasonable and reliable decision-making results. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the validity and applicability of the proposed method.
Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P
Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.
Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van
This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision
Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn
Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…
Jonassen, David H.
Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…
Ravalico, Jakin K.; Maier, Holger R.; Dandy, Graeme C.
Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) incorporates knowledge from different disciplines to provide an overarching assessment of the impact of different management decisions. The complex nature of these models, which often include non-linearities and feedback loops, requires special attention for sensitivity analysis. This is especially true when the models are used to form the basis of management decisions, where it is important to assess how sensitive the decisions being made are to changes in model parameters. This research proposes an extension to the Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE) method of sensitivity analysis; a new method of sensitivity analysis developed specifically for use in IAM and decision-making. The extension proposes using a multi-objective Pareto optimal search to locate minimum combined parameter changes that result in a change in the preferred management option. It is demonstrated through a case study of the Namoi River, where results show that the extension to MORE is able to provide sensitivity information for individual parameters that takes into account simultaneous variations in all parameters. Furthermore, the increased sensitivities to individual parameters that are discovered when joint parameter variation is taken into account shows the importance of ensuring that any sensitivity analysis accounts for these changes.
Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S
A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.
Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D
For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.
Xiaoguo Chen; Hong Du; Yue Yang
A concept of interval-valued triangular fuzzy soft set is presented, and some operations of “AND,” “OR,” intersection, union and complement, and so forth are defined. Then some relative properties are discussed and several conclusions are drawn. A dynamic decision making model is built based on the definition of interval-valued triangular fuzzy soft set, in which period weight is determined by the exponential decay method. The arithmetic weighted average operator of interval-valued triangular...
Lauesen, Linne Marie
of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...
Full Text Available This paper quantifies the transformed effectiveness of alternatives for watershed management caused by climate change and urbanization and prioritizes five options using multi-criteria decision making techniques. The climate change scenarios (A1B and A2 were obtained by using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM, and the urbanization scenario by surveying the existing urban planning. The flow and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD concentration duration curves were derived, and the numbers of days required to satisfy the environmental flow requirement and the target BOD concentration were counted using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF model. In addition, five feasible alternatives were prioritized by using multi-criteria decision making techniques, based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR framework and cost component. Finally, a sensitivity analysis approach for MCDM methods was conducted to reduce the uncertainty of weights. The result indicates that the most sensitive decision criterion is cost, followed by criteria response, driving force, impact, state and pressure in that order. As it is certain that the importance of cost component is over 0.127, construction of a small wastewater treatment plant will be the most preferred alternative in this application.
Full Text Available The purpose of stock portfolio selection is how to allocate the capital to a large number of stocks in order to bring a most profitable return for investors. In most of past literatures, experts considered the portfolio of selection problem only based on past crisp or quantitative data. However, many qualitative and quantitative factors will influence the stock portfolio selection in real investment situation. It is very important for experts or decision-makers to use their experience or knowledge to predict the performance of each stock and make a stock portfolio. Because of the knowledge, experience, and background of each expert are different and vague, different types of 2-tuple linguistic variable are suitable used to express experts' opinions for the performance evaluation of each stock with respect to criteria. According to the linguistic evaluations of experts, the linguistic TOPSIS and linguistic ELECTRE methods are combined to present a new decision-making method for dealing with stock selection problems in this paper. Once the investment set has been determined, the risk preferences of investor are considered to calculate the investment ratio of each stock in the investment set. Finally, an example is implemented to demonstrate the practicability of the proposed method.
An interval neutrosophic set (INS) is a subclass of a neutrosophic set and a generalization of an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set, and then the characteristics of INS are independently described by the interval numbers of its truth-membership, indeterminacy-membership, and falsity-membership degrees. However, the exponential parameters (weights) of all the existing exponential operational laws of INSs and the corresponding exponential aggregation operators are crisp values in interval neutrosophic decision making problems. As a supplement, this paper firstly introduces new exponential operational laws of INSs, where the bases are crisp values or interval numbers and the exponents are interval neutrosophic numbers (INNs), which are basic elements in INSs. Then, we propose an interval neutrosophic weighted exponential aggregation (INWEA) operator and a dual interval neutrosophic weighted exponential aggregation (DINWEA) operator based on these exponential operational laws and introduce comparative methods based on cosine measure functions for INNs and dual INNs. Further, we develop decision-making methods based on the INWEA and DINWEA operators. Finally, a practical example on the selecting problem of global suppliers is provided to illustrate the applicability and rationality of the proposed methods.
Full Text Available In recent years, major challenges such as, increase in inflexible consumer demands and to improve the competitive advantage, it has become necessary for various industrial organizations all over the world to focus on strategies that will help them achieve cost reduction, continual quality improvement, increased customer satisfaction and on time delivery performance. As a result, selection of the most suitable and optimal facility location for a new organization or expansion of an existing location is one of the most important strategic issues, required to fulfill all of these above mentioned objectives. In order to sustain in the global competitive market of 21st century, many industrial organizations have begun to concentrate on the proper selection of the plant site or best facility location. The best location is that which results in higher economic benefits through increased productivity and good distribution network. When a choice is to be made from among several alternative facility locations, it is necessary to compare their performance characteristics in a decisive way. As the facility location selection problem involves multiple conflicting criteria and a finite set of potential candidate alternatives, different multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM methods can be effectively applied to solve such type of problem. In this paper, four well known MCDM methods have been applied on a facility location selection problem and their relative ranking performances are compared. Because of disagreement in the ranks obtained by the four different MCDM methods a final ranking method based on REGIME has been proposed by the authors to facilitate the decision making process.
Hodgin, C Reed [Westminster, CO
A system and method for inputting, analyzing, and disseminating information necessary for identified decision-makers to respond to emergency situations. This system and method provides consistency and integration among multiple groups, and may be used for both initial consequence-based decisions and follow-on consequence-based decisions. The system and method in a preferred embodiment also provides tools for accessing and manipulating information that are appropriate for each decision-maker, in order to achieve more reasoned and timely consequence-based decisions. The invention includes processes for designing and implementing a system or method for responding to emergency situations.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Numerous studies examined factors in promoting a patient preference for active participation in treatment decision making with only modest success. The purpose of this study was to identify types of patients wishing to participate in treatment decisions as well as those wishing to play a completely active or passive role based on a Germany-wide survey of dialysis patients; using a prediction typal analysis method that defines types as configurations of categories belonging to different attributes and takes particularly higher order interactions between variables into account. Methods After randomly splitting the original patient sample into two halves, an exploratory prediction configural frequency analysis (CFA was performed on one-half of the sample (n = 1969 and the identified types were considered as hypotheses for an inferential prediction CFA for the second half (n = 1914. 144 possible prediction types were tested by using five predictor variables and control preferences as criterion. An α-adjustment (0.05 for multiple testing was performed by the Holm procedure. Results 21 possible prediction types were identified as hypotheses in the exploratory prediction CFA; four patient types were confirmed in the confirmatory prediction CFA: patients preferring a passive role show low information seeking preference, above average trust in their physician, perceive their physician's participatory decision-making (PDM-style positive, have a lower educational level, and are 56-75 years old (Type 1; p 76 years old (Type 2; p p p Conclusions The method prediction configural frequency analysis was newly introduced to the research field of patient participation and could demonstrate how a particular control preference role is determined by an association of five variables.
Giguere, Anik M C; Labrecque, Michel; Haynes, R Brian; Grad, Roland; Pluye, Pierre; Légaré, France; Cauchon, Michel; Greenway, Matthew; Carmichael, Pierre-Hugues
Decision boxes (Dboxes) provide clinicians with research evidence about management options for medical questions that have no single best answer. Dboxes fulfil a need for rapid clinical training tools to prepare clinicians for clinician-patient communication and shared decision-making. We studied the barriers and facilitators to using the Dbox information in clinical practice. We used a mixed methods study with sequential explanatory design. We recruited family physicians, residents, and nurses from six primary health-care clinics. Participants received eight Dboxes covering various questions by email (one per week). For each Dbox, they completed a web questionnaire to rate clinical relevance and cognitive impact and to assess the determinants of their intention to use what they learned from the Dbox to explain to their patients the advantages and disadvantages of the options, based on the theory of planned behaviour (TPB). Following the 8-week delivery period, we conducted focus groups with clinicians and interviews with clinic administrators to explore contextual factors influencing the use of the Dbox information. One hundred clinicians completed the web surveys. In 54% of the 496 questionnaires completed, they reported that their practice would be improved after having read the Dboxes, and in 40%, they stated that they would use this information for their patients. Of those who would use the information for their patients, 89% expected it would benefit their patients, especially in that it would allow the patient to make a decision more in keeping with his/her personal circumstances, values, and preferences. They intended to use the Dboxes in practice (mean 5.6±1.2, scale 1-7, with 7 being "high"), and their intention was significantly related to social norm, perceived behavioural control, and attitude according to the TPB (Pdecision aids and training in shared decision-making would facilitate the use of the Dbox information. Some participants would have liked
Shakouri Ganjavi, H.; Nikravesh, K.
Modeling is considered as the first step in scientific investigations. Several alternative models may be candida ted to express a phenomenon. Scientists use various criteria to select one model between the competing models. Based on the solution of a Fuzzy Decision-Making problem, this paper proposes a new method in model selection. The method enables the scientist to apply all desired validity criteria, systematically by defining a proper Possibility Distribution Function due to each criterion. Finally, minimization of a utility function composed of the Possibility Distribution Functions will determine the best selection. The method is illustrated through a modeling example for the A verage Daily Time Duration of Electrical Energy Consumption in Iran
Melo, Juliana; Peters, Marissa; Teal, Stephanie; Guiahi, Maryam
To evaluate influences on adolescent and young women's contraceptive decision-making processes. We conducted 21 individual interviews with women who presented to an adolescent-focused Title X family planning clinic seeking a new contraceptive method. Data were collected using a semi-structured interview guide, audio-taped and transcribed. Three researchers independently coded the transcripts using grounded theory; codes were organized into overarching themes and discrepancies were resolved. After identification of themes, we organized the conceptual framework of the decision-making process using the transtheoretical model of behavior change in which participants move through 4 stages: (1) contemplation, (2) preparation, (3) action, and (4) maintenance. When contemplating contraception, most of our participants were highly motivated to avoid pregnancy. During preparation, participants gathered information related to their contraceptive concerns. Participants cited peers as primary informants and healthcare providers as experts in the field. Participants integrated information received with their personal concerns about contraception initiation; the most common concerns were effectiveness, method duration, convenience, and side effects. When participants acted on choosing a contraceptive method they described how it fit their individual needs. They considered their contraceptive experiences unique and not necessarily applicable to others. During maintenance, they acted as informants for other peers, but most commonly expressed that each individual must choose "the best method for her." When adolescent and young women select a contraceptive method they balance the benefits and risks of available methods portrayed by peers and provider in the context of their personal concerns. Peer influence appeared to be greatest when participants shared contraceptive concerns and goals. Copyright © 2015 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by
Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn
Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).
Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van
This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision setting,consisting of a list of stakeholders with their capabilities, positions, and salience on each of the issues; (3) computer simulation. The computer simulation models incorporate only the main processe...
This article presents evidence that the potential loss of control of events by officials who must operate under conditions that generate substantial stress is one of the central problems of crisis decision making. Examples of U.S. crises management and alliance management are reviewed, and possible tools for improving crisis management decisions are discussed. This article particularly focuses on crises which may lead to nuclear war
The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)
Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de
The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)
Harputlugil, T.; Prins, M.; Tanju Gültekin, A.; Ilker Topçu, Y.
Architectural design can be considered as a process influenced by many stakeholders, each of which has different decision power. Each stakeholder might have his/her own criteria and weightings depending on his/her own perspective and role. Hence design can be seen as a multi-criteria decision making
Hartpulugil, T.; Prins, M.; Gultekin, A.T.; Topcu, Y.L.
Architectural design can be considered as a process influenced by many stakeholders, each of which has different decision power. Each stakeholder might have his/her own criteria and weightings depending on his/her own perspective and role. Hence design can be seen as a multi-criteria decision making
Shihu Liu; Tauqir Ahmed Moughal
How to select the most desirable pattern(s) is often a crucial step for decision making problem. By taking uncertainty as well as dynamic of database into consideration, in this paper, we construct a dynamic multicriteria decision making procedure, where the evaluation information of criteria is expressed by real number, intuitionistic fuzzy number, and interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number. During the process of algorithm construction, the evaluation information at all time episodes is...
Full Text Available Soft sets (SSs, neutrosophic sets (NSs, and rough sets (RSs are different mathematical models for handling uncertainties, but they are mutually related. In this research paper, we introduce the notions of soft rough neutrosophic sets (SRNSs and neutrosophic soft rough sets (NSRSs as hybrid models for soft computing. We describe a mathematical approach to handle decision-making problems in view of NSRSs. We also present an efficient algorithm of our proposed hybrid model to solve decision-making problems.
Wu, Jia-ting; Wang, Jian-qiang; Wang, Jing; Zhang, Hong-yu; Chen, Xiao-hong
Based on linguistic term sets and hesitant fuzzy sets, the concept of hesitant fuzzy linguistic sets was introduced. The focus of this paper is the multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems in which the criteria are in different priority levels and the criteria values take the form of hesitant fuzzy linguistic numbers (HFLNs). A new approach to solving these problems is proposed, which is based on the generalized prioritized aggregation operator of HFLNs. Firstly, the new operations and comparison method for HFLNs are provided and some linguistic scale functions are applied. Subsequently, two prioritized aggregation operators and a generalized prioritized aggregation operator of HFLNs are developed and applied to MCDM problems. Finally, an illustrative example is given to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method, which are then compared to the existing approach.
Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David
Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process. The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider: · how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions; · how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available; ...
Maite Sara Mashego
Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...
Jacobs, Patricia A.
This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...
Full Text Available The life cycle of production system shows the progress of production system from the inception to the termination of the system. During each stage, mainly in the design stage, certain strategic decisions have to be taken. These decisions are more complex as the decision makers have to assess a wide range of alternatives based on a set of conflicting criteria. As the decision making process is found to be unstructured, characterized by domain dependent knowledge, there is a need to apply an efficient multi-criteria decision making (MCDM tool to help the decision makers in making correct decisions. This paper explores the application of a novel MCDM method i.e. Preference selection index (PSI method to solve various decision-making problems that are generally encountered in the design stage of production system life cycle. To prove the potentiality, applicability and accuracy of PSI method in solving decision making problem during the design stage of production system life cycle, five examples are cited from the literature and are compared with the results obtained by the past researchers.
HENDRIKS, MMWB; DEBOER, JH; SMILDE, AK; DOORNBOS, DA
Interest is growing in multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques and a large number of these techniques are now available. The purpose of this tutorial is to give a theoretical description of some of the MCDM techniques. Besides this we will give an overview of the differences and similarities
Liu, Hu-Chen [School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009 (China); Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo 152-8552 (Japan); Wu, Jing [Department of Public Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092 (China); Li, Ping, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Shanghai Pudong New Area Zhoupu Hospital, No. 135 Guanyue Road, Shanghai 201318 (China); East Hospital Affiliated to Tongji University, No. 150 Jimo Road, Shanghai 200120 (China)
Highlights: • Propose a VIKOR-based fuzzy MCDM technique for evaluating HCW disposal methods. • Linguistic variables are used to assess the ratings and weights for the criteria. • The OWA operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers. • A case study is given to illustrate the procedure of the proposed framework. - Abstract: Nowadays selection of the appropriate treatment method in health-care waste (HCW) management has become a challenge task for the municipal authorities especially in developing countries. Assessment of HCW disposal alternatives can be regarded as a complicated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem which requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and conflicting tangible and intangible criteria. The objective of this paper is to present a new MCDM technique based on fuzzy set theory and VIKOR method for evaluating HCW disposal methods. Linguistic variables are used by decision makers to assess the ratings and weights for the established criteria. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers into a group assessment. The computational procedure of the proposed framework is illustrated through a case study in Shanghai, one of the largest cities of China. The HCW treatment alternatives considered in this study include “incineration”, “steam sterilization”, “microwave” and “landfill”. The results obtained using the proposed approach are analyzed in a comparative way.
Liu, Hu-Chen; Wu, Jing; Li, Ping
Highlights: • Propose a VIKOR-based fuzzy MCDM technique for evaluating HCW disposal methods. • Linguistic variables are used to assess the ratings and weights for the criteria. • The OWA operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers. • A case study is given to illustrate the procedure of the proposed framework. - Abstract: Nowadays selection of the appropriate treatment method in health-care waste (HCW) management has become a challenge task for the municipal authorities especially in developing countries. Assessment of HCW disposal alternatives can be regarded as a complicated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem which requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and conflicting tangible and intangible criteria. The objective of this paper is to present a new MCDM technique based on fuzzy set theory and VIKOR method for evaluating HCW disposal methods. Linguistic variables are used by decision makers to assess the ratings and weights for the established criteria. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers into a group assessment. The computational procedure of the proposed framework is illustrated through a case study in Shanghai, one of the largest cities of China. The HCW treatment alternatives considered in this study include “incineration”, “steam sterilization”, “microwave” and “landfill”. The results obtained using the proposed approach are analyzed in a comparative way
Badea, A.; Proştean, G.; Tămăşilă, M.; Vârtosu, A.
The complexity of projects implementation in Renewable Energy Sources (RES) requires finding collaborative alliances between suppliers and project developers in RES. Links activities in supply chain in RES, respectively, transportation of heavy components, processing orders to purchase quality raw materials, storage and materials handling, packaging, and other complex activities requiring a logistics system collaboratively to be permanently dimensioned properly selected and monitored. Requirements imposed by stringency of wind power energy projects implementation inevitably involves constraints in infrastructure, implementation and logistics. Thus, following an extensive research in RES project, to eliminate these constraints were identified alternative collaboration to provide feasible solutions on different levels of performance. The paper presents a critical analysis of different collaboration alternatives in supply chain for RES projects, selecting the ones most suitable for particular situations by using decision-making method Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The role of AHP method was to formulate a decision model by which can be establish the collaboration alternative choice through mathematical calculation to reduce the impact created by constraints encountered. The solution provided through AHP provides a framework for detecting optimal alternative collaboration between suppliers and project developers in RES and avoids some breaks in the chain by resizing safety buffers for leveling orders in RES projects.
Full Text Available Selection of material for a specific engineering component, which plays a significant role in its design and proper functioning, is often treated as a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM problem where the most suitable material is to be chosen based on a given set of conflicting criteria. For solving these MCDM problems, the designers do not generally know what should be the optimal number of criteria required for arriving at the best decisive action. Those criteria should be independent to each other and their number should usually limit to seven plus or minus two. In this paper, five material selection problems are solved using three common MCDM techniques to demonstrate the effect of number of criteria on the final rankings of the material alternatives. It is interesting to observe that the choices of the best suited materials solely depend on the criterion having the maximum priority value. It is also found that among the three MCDM methods, the ranking performance of VIKOR (Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje method is the best.
B. Vijaya Ramnath
Full Text Available With globalization, sweeping technological development, and increasing competition, customers are placing greater demands on manufacturers to increase quality, flexibility, on time delivery of product and less cost. Therefore, manufacturers must develop and maintain a high degree of coherence among competitive priorities, order winning criteria and improvement activities. Thus, the production managers are making an attempt to transform their organization by adopting familiar and beneficial management philosophies like cellular manufacturing (CM, lean manufacturing (LM, green manufacturing (GM, total quality management (TQM, agile manufacturing (AM, and just in time manufacturing (JIT. The main objective of this paper is to propose an optimal assembly method for an engine manufacturer’s assembly line in India. Currently, the Indian manufacturer is following traditional assembly method where the raw materials for assembly are kept along the sideways of conveyor line. It consumes more floor space, more work in process inventory, more operator's walking time and more operator's walking distance per day. In order to reduce the above mentioned wastes, lean kitting assembly is suggested by some managers. Another group of managers suggest JIT assembly as it consumes very less inventory cost compared to other types of assembly processes. Hence, a Multi-attribute decision making model namely analytical hierarchy process (AHP is applied to analyse the alternative assembly methods based on various important factors.
Full Text Available Air pollution with various materials, particularly with aerosols, increases with the advances in technological development. This is a complicated global problem. One of the priorities in achieving sustainable development is the reduction of harmful technological effects on the environment and human health. It is a responsibility of researchers to search for effective methods of reducing pollution. The reliable results can be obtained by combining the approaches used in various fields of science and technology. This paper aims to demonstrate the effectiveness of the multiple attribute decision-making (MADM methods in investigating and solving the environmental pollution problems. The paper presents the study of the process of the evaporation of a toxic liquid based on using the MADM methods. A schematic view of the test setup is presented. The density, viscosity, and rate of the released vapor flow are measured and the dependence of the variation of the solution concentration on its temperature is determined in the experimental study. The concentration of hydrochloric acid solution (HAS varies in the range from 28% to 34%, while the liquid is heated from 50 to 80 °C. The variations in the parameters are analyzed using the well-known VIKOR and COPRAS MADM methods. For determining the criteria weights, a new CILOS (Criterion Impact LOSs method is used. The experimental results are arranged in the priority order, using the MADM methods. Based on the obtained data, the technological parameters of production, ensuring minimum environmental pollution, can be chosen.
Chang, Pao-Long; Hsu, Chiung-Wen; Lin, Chiu-Yue
Highlights: ► This study uses the fuzzy MCDM method to assess hydrogen fuel cell applications. ► We evaluate seven different hydrogen fuel cell applications based on 14 criteria. ► Results show that fuel cell backup power systems should be chosen for development in Taiwan. -- Abstract: Assessment is an essential process in framing government policy. It is critical to select the appropriate targets to meet the needs of national development. This study aimed to develop an assessment model for evaluating hydrogen fuel cell applications and thus provide a screening tool for decision makers. This model operates by selecting evaluation criteria, determining criteria weights, and assessing the performance of hydrogen fuel cell applications for each criterion. The fuzzy multiple-criteria decision making method was used to select the criteria and the preferred hydrogen fuel cell products based on information collected from a group of experts. Survey questionnaires were distributed to collect opinions from experts in different fields. After the survey, the criteria weights and a ranking of alternatives were obtained. The study first defined the evaluation criteria in terms of the stakeholders, so that comprehensive influence criteria could be identified. These criteria were then classified as environmental, technological, economic, or social to indicate the purpose of each criterion in the assessment process. The selected criteria included 14 indicators, such as energy efficiency and CO 2 emissions, as well as seven hydrogen fuel cell applications, such as forklifts and backup power systems. The results show that fuel cell backup power systems rank the highest, followed by household fuel cell electric-heat composite systems. The model provides a screening tool for decision makers to select hydrogen-related applications.
Full Text Available This paper presents a hybrid method to tackle multiple criteria decision making problems with incomplete weight information in the context of fuzzy soft sets. In order to determine the weights of criteria, we develop a comprehensive two-stage framework. Stage One: We first define the distance between two fuzzy soft numbers. Next, we establish an optimization model based on ideal point of attribute values, by which the attrib-ute weights can be determined. Stage Two: To get the global weights, we use fuzzy cognitive maps to depict the dependent and feedback effect among criteria. Next, we require constructing fuzzy soft set to decide the desirable alternative. Finally, a case study is given to clarify the proposed approach of this paper.
Østergaard, Torben; Maagaard, Steffen; Jensen, Rasmus Lund
preferable input domains for the most influential parameters. To enable computationally fast simulations, we combined calculations of energy demand and thermal comfort based on ISO 13790 (CEN 2008) with a regression model for daylight factor. We constructed scoring functions for the three outputs and applied...... to collect the 10 % best performing simulations. From this collection, histograms were used to identify favourable and adverse input spans for a selection of the most sensitive parameters. Subsequently, two runs of each 3000 simulations were performed – one using the favourable input spans and the other...... using the adverse spans. The results showed that the distribution related to favourable input spans was shifted significantly towards higher holistic scores. The authors conclude that the use of a stochastic, holistic method can guide decision-making by identifying favourable input regions, and thereby...
Montyla, Timo; Still, Johanna; Gullberg, Stina; Del Missier, Fabio
Objectives: This study examined decision-making competence in ADHD by using multiple decision tasks with varying demands on analytic versus affective processes. Methods: Adults with ADHD and healthy controls completed two tasks of analytic decision making, as measured by the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) battery, and two affective…
This paper reports that the oil and gas business is undergoing a significant restructuring. In order to maintain control of our own destiny and succeed in an increasingly competitive business environment, the industry must set goals which are consistent with its continued success and focus on those goals in every aspect of its strategic management. By applying an approach to decision making which focuses on the achievement of the key goals required for success at every decision point and systematic follow-up, a firm can greatly increase its ability to succeed in the business environment of the future
Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul
, the aim of this study is to gain deeper insights into the complex and multifaceted decision processes that take place in large complex organizations operating in dynamic high-velocity markets. It is proposed that the ability to obtain faster, more accurate and updated insights about ongoing environmental......Strategic decision making remains a focal point in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices effectively under turbulent and unpredictable environmental conditions. Hence...
Shared decision-making has been called the crux of patient-centred care and identified as a key part of change for improved quality and safety in healthcare. However, it rarely happens, is hard to do and is not taught - for many reasons. Talking with patients about options is not embedded in the attitudes or communication skills training of most healthcare professionals. Information tools such as patient decision aids, personal health records and the Internet will help to shift this state, as will policy that drives patient and public involvement in healthcare delivery and training.
Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Hay, Jason; Reeves, John D.; Craig, Douglas
NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically
Pieterse, A.H.; de Vries, M.; Kunneman, M.; Stiggelbout, A.M.; Feldman-Stewart, D.
Healthcare decisions, particularly those involving weighing benefits and harms that may significantly affect quality and/or length of life, should reflect patients' preferences. To support patients in making choices, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCM) in particular have
Dang, Yaoguo; Mao, Wenxin
In view of the multi-attribute decision-making problem that the attribute values are grey multi-source heterogeneous data, a decision-making method based on kernel and greyness degree is proposed. The definitions of kernel and greyness degree of an extended grey number in a grey multi-source heterogeneous data sequence are given. On this basis, we construct the kernel vector and greyness degree vector of the sequence to whiten the multi-source heterogeneous information, then a grey relational bi-directional projection ranking method is presented. Considering the multi-attribute multi-level decision structure and the causalities between attributes in decision-making problem, the HG-DEMATEL method is proposed to determine the hierarchical attribute weights. A green supplier selection example is provided to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the proposed method. PMID:29510521
Sun, Huifang; Dang, Yaoguo; Mao, Wenxin
In view of the multi-attribute decision-making problem that the attribute values are grey multi-source heterogeneous data, a decision-making method based on kernel and greyness degree is proposed. The definitions of kernel and greyness degree of an extended grey number in a grey multi-source heterogeneous data sequence are given. On this basis, we construct the kernel vector and greyness degree vector of the sequence to whiten the multi-source heterogeneous information, then a grey relational bi-directional projection ranking method is presented. Considering the multi-attribute multi-level decision structure and the causalities between attributes in decision-making problem, the HG-DEMATEL method is proposed to determine the hierarchical attribute weights. A green supplier selection example is provided to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the proposed method.
Goulart Coelho, Lineker M; Lange, Liséte C; Coelho, Hosmanny Mg
Solid waste management is a complex domain involving the interaction of several dimensions; thus, its analysis and control impose continuous challenges for decision makers. In this context, multi-criteria decision-making models have become important and convenient supporting tools for solid waste management because they can handle problems involving multiple dimensions and conflicting criteria. However, the selection of the multi-criteria decision-making method is a hard task since there are several multi-criteria decision-making approaches, each one with a large number of variants whose applicability depends on information availability and the aim of the study. Therefore, to support researchers and decision makers, the objectives of this article are to present a literature review of multi-criteria decision-making applications used in solid waste management, offer a critical assessment of the current practices, and provide suggestions for future works. A brief review of fundamental concepts on this topic is first provided, followed by the analysis of 260 articles related to the application of multi-criteria decision making in solid waste management. These studies were investigated in terms of the methodology, including specific steps such as normalisation, weighting, and sensitivity analysis. In addition, information related to waste type, the study objective, and aspects considered was recorded. From the articles analysed it is noted that studies using multi-criteria decision making in solid waste management are predominantly addressed to problems related to municipal solid waste involving facility location or management strategy.
Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P
The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.
Full Text Available The article presents a study of applying the proposed method of cluster analysis to support purchasing decisions in the welding industry. The authors analyze the usefulness of the non-hierarchical method, Expectation Maximization (EM, in the selection of material (212 combinations of flux and wire melt for the SAW (Submerged Arc Welding method process. The proposed approach to cluster analysis is proved as useful in supporting purchase decisions.
Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.
Marewski, Julian N.; Gigerenzer, Gerd
Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care. PMID:22577307
Marewski, Julian N; Gigerenzer, Gerd
Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care.
Full Text Available Distributed Denial of service is a major threat to the availability of internet services. Due to the distributed, large scale nature of the Internet makes DDoS (Distributed Denial-of-Service attacks stealthy and difficult to counter. Defense against Distributed Denial- of -Service attacks is one of the hardest security problems on the Internet. Recently these network attacks have been increasing. Therefore more effective countermeasures are required to counter the threat. This requirement has motivated us to propose a novel mechanism against DDoS attack. This paper presents the design details of a distributed defense mechanism against DDoS attack. In our approach, the egress routers of the intermediate network coordinate with each other to provide the information necessary to detect and respond to the attack. Thus, a detection system based on single site will have either high positive or high negative rates. Unlike the traditional IDSs (Intrusion Detection System this method has the potential to achieve high true positive ratio. This work has been done by using consensus algorithms for exchanging the information between the detection systems. So the overall detection time would be reduced for global decision making.
Edwards, Kyle T
In recent years, liberal democratic societies have struggled with the question of how best to balance expertise and democratic participation in the regulation of emerging technologies. This study aims to explain how national deliberative ethics committees handle the practical tension between scientific expertise, ethical expertise, expert patient input, and lay public input by explaining two institutions' processes for determining the legitimacy or illegitimacy of reasons in public policy decision-making: that of the United Kingdom's Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) and the United States' American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM). The articulation of these 'methods of legitimation' draws on 13 in-depth interviews with HFEA and ASRM members and staff conducted in January and February 2012 in London and over Skype, as well as observation of an HFEA deliberation. This study finds that these two institutions employ different methods in rendering certain arguments legitimate and others illegitimate: while the HFEA attempts to 'balance' competing reasons but ultimately legitimizes arguments based on health and welfare concerns, the ASRM seeks to 'filter' out arguments that challenge reproductive autonomy. The notably different structures and missions of each institution may explain these divergent approaches, as may what Sheila Jasanoff (2005) terms the distinctive 'civic epistemologies' of the US and the UK. Significantly for policy makers designing such deliberative committees, each method differs substantially from that explicitly or implicitly endorsed by the institution. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Eberlein, Susan; Yates, Gigi
A system for automated fusion and interpretation of image data from multiple sensors, including multispectral data from an imaging spectrometer is being developed. Classical artificial intelligence techniques and artificial neural networks are employed to make real time decision based on current input and known scientific goals. Emphasis is placed on identifying minerals which could indicate past life activity or an environment supportive of life. Multispectral data can be used for geological analysis because different minerals have characteristic spectral reflectance in the visible and near infrared range. Classification of each spectrum into a broad class, based on overall spectral shape and locations of absorption bands is possible in real time using artificial neural networks. The goal of the system is twofold: multisensor and multispectral data must be interpreted in real time so that potentially interesting sites can be flagged and investigated in more detail while the rover is near those sites; and the sensed data must be reduced to the most compact form possible without loss of crucial information. Autonomous decision making will allow a rover to achieve maximum scientific benefit from a mission. Both a classical rule based approach and a decision neural network for making real time choices are being considered. Neural nets may work well for adaptive decision making. A neural net can be trained to work in two steps. First, the actual input state is mapped to the closest of a number of memorized states. After weighing the importance of various input parameters, the net produces an output decision based on the matched memory state. Real time, autonomous image data analysis and decision making capabilities are required for achieving maximum scientific benefit from a rover mission. The system under development will enhance the chances of identifying fossils or environments capable of supporting life on Mars
Plant, Katherine L; Stanton, Neville A
Aeronautical decision-making is complex as there is not always a clear coupling between the decision made and decision outcome. As such, there is a call for process-orientated decision research in order to understand why a decision made sense at the time it was made. Schema theory explains how we interact with the world using stored mental representations and forms an integral part of the perceptual cycle model (PCM); proposed here as a way to understand the decision-making process. This paper qualitatively analyses data from the critical decision method (CDM) based on the principles of the PCM. It is demonstrated that the approach can be used to understand a decision-making process and highlights how influential schemata can be at informing decision-making. The reliability of this approach is established, the general applicability is discussed and directions for future work are considered. This paper introduces the PCM, and the associated schema theory, as a framework to structure and explain data collected from the CDM. The reliability of both the method and coding scheme is addressed.
Highlights: • Boron based coating selection problem for cutting tools was solved. • EXPROM2, TOPSIS and VIKOR methods were used for ranking the alternative materials. • The best coatings for cutting tool were selected as TiBN and TiSiBN. • The ranking results are in good agreement with cutting test results in literature. - Abstract: Mechanical and tribological properties of hard coatings can be enhanced using boron as alloying element. Therefore, multicomponent nanostructured boron based hard coatings are deposited on cutting tools by different methods at different parameters. Different mechanical and tribological properties are obtained after deposition, and it is a difficult task to select the best coating material. In this paper, therefore, a systematic evaluation model was proposed to tackle the difficulty of the material selection with specific properties among a set of available alternatives. The alternatives consist of multicomponent nanostructured TiBN, TiCrBN, TiSiBN and TiAlSiBN coatings deposited by magnetron sputtering and ion implantation assisted magnetron sputtering at different parameters. The alternative coating materials were ranked by using three multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, i.e. EXPROM2 (preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation), TOPSIS (technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution) and VIKOR (VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje), in order to determine the best coating material for cutting tools. Hardness (H), Young’s modulus (E), elastic recovery, friction coefficient, critical load, H/E and H 3 /E 2 ratios were considered as material selection criteria. In order to determine the importance weights of the evaluation criteria, a compromised weighting method, which composes of the analytic hierarchy process and Entropy methods, were used. The ranking results showed that TiBN and TiSiBN coatings deposited at given parameters are the best coatings for cutting tools
Liu, Hu-Chen; Wu, Jing; Li, Ping
Nowadays selection of the appropriate treatment method in health-care waste (HCW) management has become a challenge task for the municipal authorities especially in developing countries. Assessment of HCW disposal alternatives can be regarded as a complicated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem which requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and conflicting tangible and intangible criteria. The objective of this paper is to present a new MCDM technique based on fuzzy set theory and VIKOR method for evaluating HCW disposal methods. Linguistic variables are used by decision makers to assess the ratings and weights for the established criteria. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers into a group assessment. The computational procedure of the proposed framework is illustrated through a case study in Shanghai, one of the largest cities of China. The HCW treatment alternatives considered in this study include "incineration", "steam sterilization", "microwave" and "landfill". The results obtained using the proposed approach are analyzed in a comparative way. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Abboudi, Hamid; Ahmed, Kamran; Normahani, Pasha; Abboudi, May; Kirby, Roger; Challacombe, Ben; Khan, Mohammed Shamim; Dasgupta, Prokar
Non-technical skills are important behavioural aspects that a urologist must be fully competent at to minimise harm to patients. The majority of surgical errors are now known to be due to errors in judgment and decision making as opposed to the technical aspects of the craft. The authors reviewed the published literature regarding decision-making theory and in practice related to urology as well as the current tools available to assess decision-making skills. Limitations include limited number of studies, and the available studies are of low quality. Decision making is the psychological process of choosing between alternative courses of action. In the surgical environment, this can often be a complex balance of benefit and risk within a variable time frame and dynamic setting. In recent years, the emphasis of new surgical curriculums has shifted towards non-technical surgical skills; however, the assessment tools in place are far from objective, reliable and valid. Surgical simulators and video-assisted questionnaires are useful methods for appraisal of trainees. Well-designed, robust and validated tools need to be implemented in training and assessment of decision-making skills in urology. Patient safety can only be ensured when safe and effective decisions are made.
Full Text Available Blasting is one of the most important operations in the mining projects. Inappropriate blasting pattern may lead to unwanted events such as poor fragmentation, back break, fly rock etc. and affect the whole operation physically and economically. In fact selecting of the most suitable pattern among previously performed patterns can be considered as a Multi Attribute Decision Making.
Hilliard, Lacey J.; Buckingham, Mary H.; Geldhof, G. John; Gansert, Patricia; Stack, Caroline; Gelgoot, Erin S.; Bers, Marina U.; Lerner, Richard M.
Video games have the potential to be contexts for moral learning. We investigated whether "Quandary," a video game designed to promote ethical thinking and moral considerations for decision-making, would help promote positive skills such as perspective taking and empathy in adolescents. We examined the effect of playing…
Starke, Jens; Berkemer, Rainer
This report discusses the art of scientific modeling in general. Different modeling approaches and their investigation are outlined. The final issue is to elaborate on the preconditions for utilizing mathematical models for decision making. We are very much indebted to the participants of the wor...
Gumley, P.; Inamdar, S.V.
This paper advocates the use of probabilistic safety assessment methods in making safety decisions. It discusses the question of adequate safety - what it means to a country buying a nuclear power plant, and how probabilistic safety assessment studies of the reference plant can be used for ensuring this adequate safety. It is proposed that adequate safety means ensuring that the plant would behave, in accident conditions, in a manner similar to the way it is expected to behave were it in the country of origin. For this one needs to know how the plant responds under somewhat altered conditions. These altered conditions can arise from such factors as varying reliability of electrical grids, different manufacturing technology, local systems design and operator capability. In the design of nuclear power plants, the traditional approach to safety has led to the belief that availability and effectiveness of safety systems alone are all that is required to ensure plant safety. This belief can result in design oversights leading to potential problems arising from the power production systems and the service systems. Participation by the buying country in the design of such systems, and understanding the safety implications thereof, can be facilitated by probabilistic safety assessment methods. This philosophy is illustrated in this paper by examples. (author)
The challenge of making training decisions with a high degree of confidence as to the results of those decisions face every DOD, Federal, State, and City agency. Training has historically been a very labor and paper intensive system with limited automation support. This paper outlines how one DOD component, the Air Force, is approaching that challenge. The Training Decision System (TDS) will provide the Air Force with an automated decision aid to help plan and estimate the consequences of various mixes of resident training, On-The-Job Training (OJT), and field training within a specialty such as security. The system described provides training from enlistment to separation and responds to hundreds of related security task needs. This system identifies what the tasks are, who should provide the training, what training setting should be used, what proficiency should be achieved, and through computer modeling provides an assessment of training effectiveness options and estimate the impact of implementing those options. With current budgetary constraints and with the possibility of further reductions in the future, the most cost effective training mix must be found to sustain required capabilities
Yin, Kedong; Yang, Benshuo; Li, Xuemei
In this paper, we investigate multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems where decision makers represent their evaluation of alternatives by trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional uncertain linguistic variable. To begin with, we introduce the definition, properties, expectation, operational laws of trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional linguistic information. Then, to improve the accuracy of decision making in some case where there are a sort of interrelationship among the attributes, we analyze partition Bonferroni mean (PBM) operator in trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional variable environment and develop two operators: trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional linguistic partitioned Bonferroni mean (TF2DLPBM) aggregation operator and trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional linguistic weighted partitioned Bonferroni mean (TF2DLWPBM) aggregation operator. Furthermore, we develop a novel method to solve MAGDM problems based on TF2DLWPBM aggregation operator. Finally, a practical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of this method and analyses the impact of different parameters on the results of decision-making.
Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H
Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit
Maifeld, Michelle; Hahn, Sandra; Titler, Marita G; Mullen, Meredithe
To identify salient variables that influence decision making regarding multifetal reduction (MFR) and describe their effect on individuals over time. Prospective, exploratory, descriptive design, using qualitative and quantitative methods. Midwestern tertiary care center. A convenience sample of 11 consecutive consenting couples with triplet or higher-order pregnancies who elected to undergo MFR. Semistructured audiotaped telephone interviews at three points: (a) 2 weeks postreduction, (b) 6 weeks postpartum, and (c) 6 months postpartum; a demographic and marital adjustment questionnaire. Themes identified by content analysis and compared via matrix analysis between males and females and at three points in time; trends in marital adjustment. Dominant variables influencing MFR decision making were risks associated with higher-order pregnancies and preservation of infants' and mothers' health. Most participants identified emotional issues, including moral and ethical dilemmas, as the most difficult aspect of reduction. Over time, participants reported feeling more positive about their decision; nonetheless, negative feelings emerged progressively. Risk aversion favored MFR decision making. Yet, both making and living with the decision were emotionally difficult for this sample. Interventions are needed to assist couples with this decision and its consequences.
Wortley, Sally; Tong, Allison; Lancsar, Emily; Salkeld, Glenn; Howard, Kirsten
Much attention in recent years has been given to the topic of public engagement in health technology assessment (HTA) decision-making. HTA organizations spend substantial resources and time on undertaking public engagement, and numerous studies have examined challenges and barriers to engagement in the decision-making process however uncertainty remains as to optimal methods to incorporate the views of the public in HTA decision-making. Little research has been done to ascertain whether current engagement processes align with public preferences and to what extent their desire for engagement is dependent on the question being asked by decision-makers or the characteristics of the decision. This study will examine public preferences for engagement in Australian HTA decision-making using an exploratory mixed methods design. The aims of this study are to: 1) identify characteristics about HTA decisions that are important to the public in determining whether public engagement should be undertaken on a particular topic, 2) determine which decision characteristics influence public preferences for the extent, or type of public engagement, and 3) describe reasons underpinning these preferences. Focus group participants from the general community, aged 18-70 years, will be purposively sampled from the Australian population to ensure a wide range of demographic groups. Each focus group will include a general discussion on public engagement as well as a ranking exercise using a modified nominal group technique (NGT). The NGT will inform the design of a discrete choice study to quantitatively assess public preferences for engagement in HTA decision-making. The proposed research seeks to investigate under what circumstances and how the public would like their views and preferences to be considered in health technology assessments. HTA organizations regularly make decisions about when and how public engagement should occur but without consideration of the public's preferences on
Vujosevic Milica L.
Full Text Available Annual energy performance of the atrium type hotel buildings in Belgrade climate conditions are analysed in this paper. The objective is to examine the impact of the atrium on the hotel building’s energy needs for space heating and cooling, thus establishing the best design among four proposed alternatives of the hotels with atrium. The energy performance results are obtained using EnergyPlus simulation engine, taking into account Belgrade climate data and thermal comfort parameters. The selected results are compared and the hotels are ranked according to certain criteria. Decision-making process that resulted in the ranking of the proposed alternatives is conducted using PROMETHEE method and Borda model. The methodological approach in this research includes the creation of a hypothetical model of an atrium type hotel building, numerical simulation of energy performances of four design alternatives of the hotel building with an atrium, comparative analysis of the obtained results and ranking of the proposed alternatives from the building’s energy performance perspective. The main task of the analysis is to examine the influence of the atrium, with both its shape and position, on the energy performance of the hotel building. Based on the results of the research it can be to determine the most energy efficient model of the hotel building with atrium for Belgrade climate condition areas. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije: Spatial, Environmental, Energy and Social aspects of the Developing Settlements and Climate Change - Mutual Impacts
Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang
As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.
Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Johnson, J.G.; Böckenholt, U.; Goldstein, D.G.; Russo, J.E.; Sullivan, N.J.; Willemsen, M.C.
Decision research has experienced a shift from simple algebraic theories of choice to an appreciation of mental processes underlying choice. A variety of process-tracing methods has helped researchers test these process explanations. Here, we provide a survey of these methods, including specific
Chou, Jui-Sheng; Ongkowijoyo, Citra Satria
Corporate competitiveness is heavily influenced by the information acquired, processed, utilized and transferred by professional staff involved in the supply chain. This paper develops a decision aid for selecting on-site ready-mix concrete (RMC) unloading type in decision making situations involving multiple stakeholders and evaluation criteria. The uncertainty of criteria weights set by expert judgment can be transformed in random ways based on the probabilistic virtual-scale method within a prioritization matrix. The ranking is performed by grey relational grade systems considering stochastic criteria weight based on individual preference. Application of the decision aiding model in actual RMC case confirms that the method provides a robust and effective tool for facilitating decision making under uncertainty. - Highlights: • This study models decision aiding method to assess ready-mix concrete unloading type. • Applying Monte Carlo simulation to virtual-scale method achieves a reliable process. • Individual preference ranking method enhances the quality of global decision making. • Robust stochastic superiority and inferiority ranking obtains reasonable results
Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III
Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it
Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients.
Pieterse, A.H.; de Vries, M.; Kunneman, M.; Stiggelbout, A.M.; Feldman-Stewart, D.
Healthcare decisions, particularly those involving weighing benefits and harms that may significantly affect quality and/or length of life, should reflect patients' preferences. To support patients in making choices, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCM) in particular have been developed. VCM intend to help patients to determine the aspects of the choices that are important to their selection of a preferred option. Several types of VCM exist. However, they are often des...
Roijers, D.M.; Lomuscio, A.; Scerri, P.; Bazzan, A.; Huhns, M.
My research is aimed at finding efficient coordination methods for multi-objective collaborative multi-agent decision theoretic planning. Key to coordinating efficiently in these settings is exploiting loose couplings between agents. We proposed two algorithms for the case in which the agents need
Pereira, AC; Verdonschot, EH; Huysmans, M
The decision to place sealants is a difficult one, and it has been suggested that in a low risk population it may be efficient to wait until caries is detected in the fissure. An invasive sealant technique with fissure preparation may then be indicated. The diagnostic method used in the indication
Santema, T B Katrien; Stoffer, E Anniek; Kunneman, Marleen; Koelemay, Mark J W; Ubbink, Dirk T
Shared decision-making (SDM) has been advocated as the preferred method of choosing a suitable treatment option. However, patient involvement in treatment decision-making is not yet common practice in the field of vascular surgery. The aim of this mixed-methods study was to explore patients' decision-making preferences and to investigate which facilitators and barriers patients perceive as important for the application of SDM in vascular surgery. Patients were invited to participate after visiting the vascular surgical outpatient clinic of an Academic Medical Center in the Netherlands. A treatment decision was made during the consultation for an abdominal aortic aneurysm or peripheral arterial occlusive disease. Patients filled in a number of questionnaires (quantitative part) and a random subgroup of patients participated in an in-depth interview (qualitative part). A total of 67 patients participated in this study. 58 per cent of them (n=39) indicated that they preferred a shared role in decision-making. In more than half of the patients (55%; n=37) their preferred role was in disagreement with what they had experienced. 31 per cent of the patients (n=21) preferred a more active role in the decision-making process than they had experienced. Patients indicated a good patient-doctor relationship as an important facilitator for the application of SDM. The vast majority of vascular surgical patients preferred, but did not experience a shared role in the decision-making process, although the concept of SDM was insufficiently clear to some patients. This emphasises the importance of explaining the concept of SDM and implementing it in the clinical encounter. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Lean Keng, Soon; AlQudah, Hani Nawaf Ibrahim
To raise awareness of critical care nurses' cognitive bias in decision-making, its relationship with leadership styles and its impact on care delivery. The relationship between critical care nurses' decision-making and leadership styles in hospitals has been widely studied, but the influence of cognitive bias on decision-making and leadership styles in critical care environments remains poorly understood, particularly in Jordan. Two-phase mixed methods sequential explanatory design and grounded theory. critical care unit, Prince Hamza Hospital, Jordan. Participant sampling: convenience sampling Phase 1 (quantitative, n = 96), purposive sampling Phase 2 (qualitative, n = 20). Pilot tested quantitative survey of 96 critical care nurses in 2012. Qualitative in-depth interviews, informed by quantitative results, with 20 critical care nurses in 2013. Descriptive and simple linear regression quantitative data analyses. Thematic (constant comparative) qualitative data analysis. Quantitative - correlations found between rationality and cognitive bias, rationality and task-oriented leadership styles, cognitive bias and democratic communication styles and cognitive bias and task-oriented leadership styles. Qualitative - 'being competent', 'organizational structures', 'feeling self-confident' and 'being supported' in the work environment identified as key factors influencing critical care nurses' cognitive bias in decision-making and leadership styles. Two-way impact (strengthening and weakening) of cognitive bias in decision-making and leadership styles on critical care nurses' practice performance. There is a need to heighten critical care nurses' consciousness of cognitive bias in decision-making and leadership styles and its impact and to develop organization-level strategies to increase non-biased decision-making. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Hopmans, Wendy; Damman, Olga C; Senan, Suresh; Hartemink, Koen J; Smit, Egbert F; Timmermans, Danielle R M
Surgery and stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) are both curative treatment options for patients with a stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Consequently, there is growing interest in studying the role of patients in treatment decision making. We studied how patients with stage I NSCLC perceived shared decision making (SDM) in general, and how they viewed different aspects of SDM. A sequential mixed methods design was used, consisting of qualitative interviews (N=11), as well as a survey study (N=76) focusing on different SDM-related aspects. Participants were interviewed to understand their own experience with treatment decision making. In the survey study, patients rated the importance of 20 aspects of shared decision making that were identified during interviews. Descriptive analysis and explorative factor analysis were performed. We assessed six qualitative themes covering SDM aspects that were determined by patients to be important. The survey identified four SDM-related factors with sufficient internal consistency, namely (1) 'guidance by clinician' (α=.741), (2) 'conduct of clinician' (α=.774); (3) 'preparation for treatment decision making' (α=.864); and (4) 'active role of patient in treatment decision making' (α=.782). Of these, clinician guidance was rated as most important by patients (M=3.61; SD=.44). Only 28.9% of patients in the survey study reported that both treatment options were discussed with them. Patients with a stage I NSCLC found clinician guidance to be important when making treatment decisions. Nevertheless, the majority of patients reported not being offered both treatment options, which might have influenced this finding.
Some scholarships have been routinely offered by Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education of the Republic of Indonesia for students at Syiah Kuala University. In reality, the scholarship selection process is becoming subjective and highly complex problem. Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) techniques can be a solution in order to solve scholarship selection problem. In this study, we demonstrated the application of a fuzzy TOPSIS as an MADM technique by using a numerical example in order to calculate a triangular fuzzy number for the fuzzy data onto a normalized weight. We then use this normalized value to construct the normalized fuzzy decision matrix. We finally use the fuzzy TOPSIS to rank alternatives in descending order based on the relative closeness to the ideal solution. The result in terms of final ranking shows slightly different from the previous work.
Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene
Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.
Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui
Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.
Aytaç Adalı, Esra; Tuş Işık, Ayşegül
A decision making process requires the values of conflicting objectives for alternatives and the selection of the best alternative according to the needs of decision makers. Multi-objective optimization methods may provide solution for this selection. In this paper it is aimed to present the laptop selection problem based on MOORA plus full multiplicative form (MULTIMOORA) and multi-objective optimization on the basis of simple ratio analysis (MOOSRA) which are relatively new multi-objective optimization methods. The novelty of this paper is solving this problem with the MULTIMOORA and MOOSRA methods for the first time.
Brodribb, Wendy; Fallon, Tony; Jackson, Claire; Hegney, Desley
Breastfeeding is an important public health issue. While medical practitioners can have a significant impact on breastfeeding initiation and duration, there are few studies investigating their views regarding women's infant feeding decisions. This mixed-methods study employed qualitative (focus groups and interviews) and quantitative (questionnaire) data collection techniques to investigate the attitudes and views of Australian medical students and GP registrars about infant feeding decision-making. Three approaches to infant feeding decisions were evident: 'the moral choice' (women were expected to breastfeed); 'the free choice' (doctors should not influence a woman's decision); and 'the equal choice' (the outcome of the decision was unimportant). Participants were uncertain about differences between artificial-feeding and breastfeeding outcomes, and there was some concern that advising a mother to breastfeed may lead to maternal feelings of guilt and failure. These findings, the first in an Australian setting, provide a foundation on which to base further educational interventions for medical practitioners.
rational ones (i.e. Kohlberg’s influential model of decision making ). However, non- rational elements, such as affect, risk perception, risk preference...dread or anxiety) play a strong role in many types of decisions , and that the addition of decision makers’ emotions to models of choice may make ...White, 1994) agree that emotions are an integral part of ethical decision making as well. Emotions arise in the context of interpersonal
Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.
Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…
Carlsen, A.J.; Wenstoep, F.
The conference paper deals with a decision support system (DSS) developed to find the costs of environmental goods. The system is based on multicriteria decision making and uses pairwise comparisons of two and two criteria. The criteria weights are calculated with linear regression. When one criterion is monetary, all criteria weights can be expressed in monetary units when the weights are known. The DSS has been tested on a hydropower project in the area of Sauda in Norway. To represent the decision makers, three panels each consisting of three persons were formed. The persons were selected from governmental agencies, the developers, the local environmental administration and a local politician. The DSS worked well with the panels. One problem was that impacts of hydropower projects are very site specific and also hard to quantify. Therefore, a considerable amount of time was used in creating a cognitive understanding of the issues involved and how they were represented by quantitative criteria. Some had also difficulties in accepting the principle of expressing environmental goods in monetary units. The results so far are preliminary. This research work is part of the Norwegian research programme Energy, Environment and Development. 3 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs
ERCAN, Merve; YILDIRIM, Meral; OTURAK, Çiğdem; EREN, Tamer
Strategy games occupy a very important place in gaming industry. In this study, characterselection is made according to the rival team which is created by developing scenarios for Summoner's Rift inLeague of Legends (LOL) strategy game and Howling Abyss modes. In order to solve the problem, AnalyticalHierarchy Process (AHP), TOPSIS and PROMETHEE methods are utilized from multicriteria decision makingmethods in Summoner's Rift and Howling Abyss mode. For the problem, five alternative...
Full Text Available This paper introduces a novel soft computing technique, called the complex neutrosophic soft expert relation (CNSER, to evaluate the degree of interaction between two hybrid models called complex neutrosophic soft expert sets (CNSESs. CNSESs are used to represent two-dimensional data that are imprecise, uncertain, incomplete and indeterminate. Moreover, it has a mechanism to incorporate the parameter set and the opinions of all experts in one model, thus making it highly suitable for use in decision-making problems where the time factor plays a key role in determining the final decision. The complex neutrosophic soft expert set and complex neutrosophic soft expert relation are both defined. Utilizing the properties of CNSER introduced, an empirical study is conducted on the relationship between the variability of the currency exchange rate and Malaysian exports and the time frame (phase of the interaction between these two variables. This study is supported further by an algorithm to determine the type and the degree of this relationship. A comparison between different existing relations and CNSER to show the ascendancy of our proposed CNSER is provided. Then, the notion of the inverse, complement and composition of CNSERs along with some related theorems and properties are introduced. Finally, we define the symmetry, transitivity and reflexivity of CNSERs, as well as the equivalence relation and equivalence classes on CNSESs. Some interesting properties are also obtained.
Polisena, Julie; Garritty, Chantelle; Kamel, Chris; Stevens, Adrienne; Abou-Setta, Ahmed M
Health care decision makers often need to make decisions in limited timeframes and cannot await the completion of a full evidence review. Rapid reviews (RRs), utilizing streamlined systematic review methods, are increasingly being used to synthesize the evidence with a shorter turnaround time. Our primary objective was to describe the processes and methods used internationally to produce RRs. In addition, we sought to understand the underlying themes associated with these programs. We contacted representatives of international RR programs from a broad realm in health care to gather information about the methods and processes used to produce RRs. The responses were summarized narratively to understand the characteristics associated with their processes and methods. The summaries were compared and contrasted to highlight potential themes and trends related to the different RR programs. Twenty-nine international RR programs were included in our sample with a broad organizational representation from academia, government, research institutions, and non-for-profit organizations. Responses revealed that the main objectives for RRs were to inform decision making with regards to funding health care technologies, services and policy, and program development. Central themes that influenced the methods used by RR programs, and report type and dissemination were the imposed turnaround time to complete a report, resources available, the complexity and sensitivity of the research topics, and permission from the requestor. Our study confirmed that there is no standard approach to conduct RRs. Differences in processes and methods across programs may be the result of the novelty of RR methods versus other types of evidence syntheses, customization of RRs for various decision makers, and definition of 'rapid' by organizations, since it impacts both the timelines and the evidence synthesis methods. Future research should investigate the impact of current RR methods and reporting to
San Cristobal, J.R.
One of the characteristics of the Spanish energy system is its high degree of dependence on imports. In 2005, the Spanish government approved the new Renewable Energy Plan in the following sectors: Windpower, Hydroelectric, Solar Thermal, Solar Thermo-electric, Photovoltaic, Biomass, Biogas and Biofuels. The aim of the Plan is to make it possible to reach the target of 12% of primary energy being met from renewable sources by 2010. When selecting one from various Renewable Energy investment projects different groups of decision-makers become involved in the process. Decision-making has to take into consideration several conflicting objectives because of the increasingly complex social, economic, technological, and environmental factors that are present. Traditional single-criterion decision-making is no longer able to handle these problems. The Compromise Ranking method, also known as the VIKOR method, introduces the Multi-criteria ranking index based on the particular measure of ''closeness'' to the ''ideal'' solution. In this paper, we apply the method in the selection of a Renewable Energy project corresponding to the Renewable Energy Plan launched by the Spanish Government. The method is combined with the Analytical Hierarchy Process method for weighting the importance of the different criteria, which allows decision-makers to assign these values based on their preferences. The results show that the Biomass plant option (Co-combustion in a conventional power plant) is the best choice, followed by the Wind power and Solar Thermo-electric alternatives. (author)
Ejem, Deborah; Nicholas Dionne-Odom, J; Turkman, Yasemin; Knight, Sara; Willis, Dan; Kaufman, Peter; Bakitas, Marie
Women with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) face numerous, complex treatment and advance care planning (ACP) decisions. Our aim was to develop a better understanding of women with MBC's decision-making preferences overtime and relative to specific types of decisions. Convergent, parallel mixed-methods study. Participants completed the Control Preferences Scale (CPS) and a semi-structured interview of decision-making experiences at enrollment (T1; n=22) and when facing a decision or 3 months later (T2; n=19). We categorized women's decision-making experience descriptions into one of the CPS decisional styles and compared them to their CPS response. We constructed an analytic grid that aligned the interview-determined treatment and ACP decisional preferences with the CPS categories at T1 and T2 and calculated Cohen's kappa coefficient and congruence percentages. Participants (n=22) were White (100%), averaged 62 years, married (54%), retired (45%), and had a bachelor's degree (45%). Congruence between CPS response and interview-determined treatment preferences at T1 was 32% (kappa=0.083) and 33% (kappa=0.120) at T2. Congruence between CPS survey response and interview-determined ACP preferences at T1 was 22.7% (kappa =0.092) at T1 and 11% (kappa = 0.011) at T2. Although women selected a "shared" treatment decision-making style using the CPS validated tool, when interviewed their descriptions generally reflected a passive process in which they followed the oncologists' treatment suggestions. Future research should explore whether the incongruence between stated and actual decision-making style is a function of misinterpreting the CPS choices or a true inconsistency that could lead to adverse consequences such as decisional regret. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
are made. Results of the survey are to substantiate the methodology of strategic planning under conditions of external environment uncertainty with the consideration of the life cycle theory. Practical implications: the possibilities of using life-cycle models allow: 1. reasonably predicting sales and plan production program; 2. determining the basic strategies at different stages of development; 3. determining the sequence of stages of enterprise development; 4. ensuring harmonious interaction of organizational characteristics with the external environment factors that influence the process of organizational development. Increasing the sustainability of the organization’s development can be achieved by re-establishment of dynamic changes in the plan in terms of using effective methods for forecasting with the consideration of the life cycle theory. It is necessary to take into account the interconnection between all levels of life cycles: industry, technology, enterprises, product; ensuring the competitive advantage of the organization. Using the theory of optimal solutions making in uncertain conditions under the analysis of long-term projects allows transferring qualitative factors into quantitative indicators that can be used in the future to bring investment projects to the same kind and choose the best. In conditions of increased uncertainty of the external environment, it is necessary to develop the theory of enterprise management, taking into account its life cycle, as well as the life cycle of its separate elements and processes at all levels. Combination of strategic management with the life cycles theory will increase the objectivity and effectiveness of taken management decisions. The accounting of the organization life cycles in strategic planning allows choosing an effective strategy.
R F&aauml;re; S Grosskopf; D Margaritis
In this note we extend the standard DEA paradigm to address the question of how one can price DMUs (decision-making units). To do this we use an adjoint transformation to the technology generated by these DMUs which links to traditional linear programming theory of the firm and is similar to pricing portfolios in financial markets. We also provide a numerical example illustrating the practicality of the proposed method.
Lee, David; Long, Dou; Etheridge, Mel; Plugge, Joana; Johnson, Jesse; Kostiuk, Peter
We present a general method for making cross comparable estimates of the benefits of NASA-developed decision support technologies for air traffic management, and we apply a specific implementation of the method to estimate benefits of three decision support tools (DSTs) under development in NASA's advanced Air Transportation Technologies Program: Active Final Approach Spacing Tool (A-FAST), Expedite Departure Path (EDP), and Conflict Probe and Trial Planning Tool (CPTP). The report also reviews data about the present operation of the national airspace system (NAS) to identify opportunities for DST's to reduce delays and inefficiencies.
Full Text Available Academically, the research of subject database of tax system aims to set up an efficient, harmonious virtual data application environment. Subject data, in application and management, has been on demand polymerized and autonomously collaborated and has reached a balance between instantaneity and accuracy. This paper defines the connotation and characteristics enterprise informationization, designs a value system of enterprise informationization which is subject database oriented, and builds a model for the import of the subject database of enterprise informationization. Meantime, this paper describes the structure of the subject database based information import model and forges the model’s theoretical basis of subject data import in tax system. Using the model can make an analysis on the information of data warehouse, storage information, and tax information to provide decision support for the tax administrators.
Decisions are made according to a complex cognitive and emotional evaluation of the situation. The aim of the paper is to examine the effect of mood on risky investment decision making by using a mood induction procedure. The paper investigates how happy and sad mood affects risky investment decision making and whether there is a difference between the perception of fix investments and monetary investments. The analysis has been conducted focusing on individual investment decisions. Data for ...
Full Text Available Selecting the best solution to deploy an ambulance in a strategic location is of the important variables that need to be accounted for improving the emergency medical services. The selection requires both quantitative and qualitative evaluation. Fuzzy set based approach is one of the well-known theories that help decision makers to handle fuzziness, uncertainty in decision making and vagueness of information. This paper proposes a new decision making method of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting (IT2 FSAW as to deal with uncertainty and vagueness. The new IT2 FSAW is applied to establish a preference in ambulance location. The decision making framework defines four criteria and five alternatives of ambulance location preference. Four experts attached to a Malaysian government hospital and a university medical center were interviewed to provide linguistic evaluation prior to analyzing with the new IT2 FSAW. Implementation of the proposed method in the case of ambulance location preference suggests that the ‘road network’ is the best alternative for ambulance location. The results indicate that the proposed method offers a consensus solution for handling the vague and qualitative criteria of ambulance location preference.
Full Text Available The instructional intervention in this design case is a self-directed online tutorial that applies the case-based method to teach educators how to design and conduct entrepreneurship programs for elementary school students. In this article, the authors describe the major decisions made in each phase of the design and development process, explicate the rationales behind them, and demonstrate their effect on the production of the tutorial. Based on such analysis, the guidelines for designing case-based online instruction are summarized for the design case.
Rahmanita, E.; Widyaningrum, V. T.; Kustiyahningsih, Y.; Purnama, J.
SMEs have a very important role in the development of the economy in Indonesia. SMEs assist the government in terms of creating new jobs and can support household income. The number of SMEs in Madura and the number of measurement indicators in the SME mapping so that it requires a method.This research uses Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) method for performance measurement SME. The FANP method can handle data that contains uncertainty. There is consistency index in determining decisions. Performance measurement in this study is based on a perspective of the Balanced Scorecard. This research approach integrated internal business perspective, learning, and growth perspective and fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP). The results of this research areframework a priority weighting of assessment indicators SME.
Connolly, T.; Zeelenberg, M.
Decision research has only recently started to take seriously the role of emotions in choices and decisions. Regret is the emotion that has received the most attention. In this article, we sample a number of the initial regret studies from psychology and economics, and trace some of the complexities
We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.
Pieterse, Arwen H; de Vries, Marieke; Kunneman, Marleen; Stiggelbout, Anne M; Feldman-Stewart, Deb
Healthcare decisions, particularly those involving weighing benefits and harms that may significantly affect quality and/or length of life, should reflect patients' preferences. To support patients in making choices, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCM) in particular have been developed. VCM intend to help patients to determine the aspects of the choices that are important to their selection of a preferred option. Several types of VCM exist. However, they are often designed without clear reference to theory, which makes it difficult for their development to be systematic and internally coherent. Our goal was to provide theory-informed recommendations for the design of VCM. Process theories of decision making specify components of decision processes, thus, identify particular processes that VCM could aim to facilitate. We conducted a review of the MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases and of references to theories included in retrieved papers, to identify process theories of decision making. We selected a theory if (a) it fulfilled criteria for a process theory; (b) provided a coherent description of the whole process of decision making; and (c) empirical evidence supports at least some of its postulates. Four theories met our criteria: Image Theory, Differentiation and Consolidation theory, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction theory, and Fuzzy-trace Theory. Based on these, we propose that VCM should: help optimize mental representations; encourage considering all potentially appropriate options; delay selection of an initially favoured option; facilitate the retrieval of relevant values from memory; facilitate the comparison of options and their attributes; and offer time to decide. In conclusion, our theory-based design recommendations are explicit and transparent, providing an opportunity to test each in a systematic manner. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Hancerliogullari, Gulsah; Hancerliogullari, Kadir Oymen; Koksalmis, Emrah
Determining the most suitable anesthesia method for circumcision surgery plays a fundamental role in pediatric surgery. This study is aimed to present pediatric surgeons' perspective on the relative importance of the criteria for selecting anesthesia method for circumcision surgery by utilizing the multi-criteria decision making methods. Fuzzy set theory offers a useful tool for transforming linguistic terms into numerical assessments. Since the evaluation of anesthesia methods requires linguistic terms, we utilize the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Both mathematical decision-making methods are originated from individual judgements for qualitative factors utilizing the pair-wise comparison matrix. Our model uses four main criteria, eight sub-criteria as well as three alternatives. To assess the relative priorities, an online questionnaire was completed by three experts, pediatric surgeons, who had experience with circumcision surgery. Discussion of the results with the experts indicates that time-related factors are the most important criteria, followed by psychology, convenience and duration. Moreover, general anesthesia with penile block for circumcision surgery is the preferred choice of anesthesia compared to general anesthesia without penile block, which has a greater priority compared to local anesthesia under the discussed main-criteria and sub-criteria. The results presented in this study highlight the need to integrate surgeons' criteria into the decision making process for selecting anesthesia methods. This is the first study in which multi-criteria decision making tools, specifically fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS, are used to evaluate anesthesia methods for a pediatric surgical procedure.
desired effect (Eagly, & Chaiken, 1993). Arguably, artificial intelligence is representative of the best of approaches in rational decision - making ...2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Emotional and Intelligent II: The Tangled Knot of Social...Collaborative decision making in METOC W.F. Lawless Paine College, Departments of Mathematics and Psychology Augusta, GA 30901-3182 ph: 706
Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.
Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.
Darby, R Ryan; Dickerson, Bradford C
After participating in this activity, learners should be better able to:• Assess the neuropsychological literature on decision making and the medical and legal assessment of capacity in patients with dementia• Identify the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments for patients with dementia ABSTRACT: Medical and legal professionals face the challenge of assessing capacity and competency to make medical, legal, and financial decisions in dementia patients with impaired decision making. While such assessments have classically focused on the capacity for complex reasoning and executive functions, research in decision making has revealed that motivational and metacognitive processes are also important. We first briefly review the neuropsychological literature on decision making and on the medical and legal assessment of capacity. Next, we discuss the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments, including the group-to-individual inference problem, the unclear role of neuroimaging in capacity assessments, and the lack of capacity measures that integrate important facets of decision making. Finally, we present several case examples where we attempt to demonstrate the potential benefits and important limitations of using decision-making research to aid in capacity determinations.
Sharma, Tarang; Choudhury, Moni; Kaur, Bindweep
from the literature and a combined best practice checklist has been proposed. CONCLUSIONS: As decisions often need to be made in areas where there is a lack of published scientific evidence, CE is employed. Therefore to ensure its appropriateness the development of a validated CE data quality check......-list to assist decision makers is essential and further research in this area is a priority....
Michael D. Lee; Benjamin R. Newell
Hierarchical Bayesian methods offer a principled and comprehensive way to relate psychological models to data. Here we use them to model the patterns of information search, stopping and deciding in a simulated binary comparison judgment task. The simulation involves 20 subjects making 100 forced choice comparisons about the relative magnitudes of two objects (which of two German cities has more inhabitants). Two worked-examples show how hierarchical models can be developed to account for and ...
In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...
The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...
Christopher A. Dieckmann, PE, CSEP-Acq
The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is funded through the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and other customers who have direct contracts with the Laboratory. The people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure at the laboratory require continual investment to maintain and improve the laboratory’s capabilities. With ever tightening federal and customer budgets, the ability to direct investments into the people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure which are most closely aligned with the laboratory’s mission and customers’ goals grows increasingly more important. The ability to justify those investment decisions based on objective criteria that can withstand political, managerial and technical criticism also becomes increasingly more important. The Systems Engineering tools of decision analysis, risk management and roadmapping, when properly applied to such problems, can provide defensible decisions.
Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.
We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.
Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo
We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....
Business educators should give students specific training in a methodology which will enable them to make logical, systematic, and rational decisions. Kepner-Tregoe Analysis (KTA), a decision making model, is described and illustrated with an example of a student buying his first car. (SC)
A M Kustubayeva
Full Text Available The results of the experimental research of the connection between the efficiency of decision making and emotional intelligence are presented in the article. The empirical data indicate that the ability to regulate emotion is an important indicator of the efficiency of decision making in the conditions of psychological experiment.
Burden, Sarah; Topping, Anne Elizabeth; O'Halloran, Catherine
To investigate how mentors form judgements and reach summative assessment decisions regarding student competence in practice. Competence assessment is a significant component of pre-registration nursing programmes in the United Kingdom. Concerns exist that assessments are subjective, lack consistency and that mentors fail to judge student performance as unsatisfactory. A two-stage sequential embedded mixed-methods design. Data collected 2012-2013. This study involved a whole student cohort completing a UK undergraduate adult nursing programme (N = 41). Stage 1: quantitative data on mentor conduct of assessment interviews and the final decision recorded (N = 330 from 270 mentors) were extracted from student Practice Assessment Documents (PADs). Stage 2: mentor feedback in student PADs was used in Stimulated Recall interviews with a purposive sample of final placement mentors (N = 17). These were thematically analysed. Findings were integrated to develop a theoretically driven model of mentor decision-making. Course assessment strategies and documentation had limited effect in framing mentor judgements and decisions. Rather, mentors amassed impressions, moderated by expectations of an "idealized student" by practice area and programme stage that influenced their management and outcome of the assessment process. These impressions were accumulated and combined into judgements that informed the final decision. This process can best be understood and conceptualized through the Brunswik's lens model of social judgement. Mentor decisions were reasoned and there was a shared understanding of judgement criteria and their importance. This impression-based nature of mentor decision-making questions the reliability and validity of competency-based assessments used in nursing pre-registration programmes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Distributed Decision Making and Control is a mathematical treatment of relevant problems in distributed control, decision and multiagent systems, The research reported was prompted by the recent rapid development in large-scale networked and embedded systems and communications. One of the main reasons for the growing complexity in such systems is the dynamics introduced by computation and communication delays. Reliability, predictability, and efficient utilization of processing power and network resources are central issues and the new theory and design methods presented here are needed to analyze and optimize the complex interactions that arise between controllers, plants and networks. The text also helps to meet requirements arising from industrial practice for a more systematic approach to the design of distributed control structures and corresponding information interfaces Theory for coordination of many different control units is closely related to economics and game theory network uses being dictated by...
Forsythe, J Chris [Sandia Park, NM; Speed, Ann E [Albuquerque, NM; Jordan, Sabina E [Albuquerque, NM; Xavier, Patrick G [Albuquerque, NM
A method for computer emulation of human decision making defines a plurality of concepts related to a domain and a plurality of situations related to the domain, where each situation is a combination of at least two of the concepts. Each concept and situation is represented in the computer as an oscillator output, and each situation and concept oscillator output is distinguishable from all other oscillator outputs. Information is input to the computer representative of detected concepts, and the computer compares the detected concepts with the stored situations to determine if a situation has occurred.
Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)
The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that
Full Text Available Background: The decision about whether to start a family within a partnership can be viewed as a result of an interaction process. The influence of each of the partners in a couple differs depending on their individual preferences and intentions towards having children. Both of the partners additionally influence each other's fertility intentions and preferences. Objective: We specify, estimate, and test a model that examines the decision about whether to have a child as a choice that is made jointly by the two partners. The transition to the birth of a (further child is investigated with the explicit consideration of both the female partner and the male partner in the partnership context. Methods: An approach for modelling the interactive influences of the two actors in the decision-making process was proposed. A trivariate distribution consisting of both the female and the male partners' fertility intentions, as well as the joint generative decision, was modelled. A multivariate non-linear probit model was chosen and the problem of identification in estimating the relative effects of the actors was resolved. These parameters were used to assess the relative importance of each of the partners' intentions in the decision. We carried out the analysis with MPLUS. Data from the panel of intimate relationships and family dynamics (pairfam was used to estimate the model. Results: The biographical context of each of the partners in relation to their own as well as to their partner's fertility intentions was found to be of considerable importance. Of the significant individual and partner effects, the male partner was shown to have the greater influence. But the female partner was found to have stronger parameters overall and she ultimately has a veto power in the couple's final decision.
Full Text Available As the early design decision-making structure, a software architecture plays a key role in the final software product quality and the whole project. In the software design and development process, an effective evaluation of the trustworthiness of a software architecture can help making scientific and reasonable decisions on the architecture, which are necessary for the construction of highly trustworthy software. In consideration of lacking the trustworthiness evaluation and measurement studies for software architecture, this paper provides one trustworthy attribute model of software architecture. Based on this model, the paper proposes to use the Principle of Maximum Entropy (POME and Grey Decision-making Method (GDMM as the trustworthiness evaluation method of a software architecture and proves the scientificity and rationality of this method, as well as verifies the feasibility through case analysis.
In this paper, on the bases of the defeot of riskful type and indefinite type decisions, the concept of the type of item investment probability scheduling decision is given, and a linear programming model and its solution are made out. The feasibility of probability scheduling type item investment plan is studied by applying the quality of interval arithmetic.
Full Text Available Decision-making is defined as a selection of a certain actionamong several alternatives. It is the essence of planning, asin the managerial sense there is no plan until a decision of engagementof resources, reputation and direction of activities ismade. Decision-making is, in fact, only a step in planning, evenwhen it is performed quickly and without special consideration.It is what we all experience every day. It is one of the most fascinatingbiological activities and the subject of frightening implicationsfor the whole human race. Since various techniques improvethe system and the quality of managerial decision-making,they are classified into three assumptions: risk analysis, decision-making trees, and the theory of revealed preference. Allof these are based on the interaction of a certain number of importantvariables out of which many contain the elements ofuncertainty, but maybe also high level of probability.
Rough Set TheoryBasic concepts and properties of rough sets Rough Membership Rough Intervals Rough FunctionApplications of Rough SetsMultiple Objective Rough Decision Making Reverse Logistics Problem with Rough Interval Parameters MODM based Rough Approximation for Feasible RegionEVRMCCRMDCRM Reverse Logistics Network Design Problem of Suji Renewable Resource MarketBilevel Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Hierarchical Supply Chain Planning Problem with Rough Interval Parameters Bilevel Decision Making ModelBL-EVRM BL-CCRMBL-DCRMApplication to Supply Chain Planning of Mianyang Co., LtdStochastic Multiple Objective Rough Decision Multi-Objective Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling UnderRough Random EnvironmentRandom Variable Stochastic EVRM Stochastic CCRM Stochastic DCRM Multi-Objective rc-PSP/mM/Ro-Ra for Longtan Hydropower StationFuzzy Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Allocation Problem under Fuzzy Environment Fuzzy Variable Fu-EVRM Fu-CCRM Fu-DCRM Earth-Rock Work Allocation Problem.
This book offers an in-depth and comprehensive introduction to the priority methods of intuitionistic preference relations, the consistency and consensus improving procedures for intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches to group decision making based on intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches and models for interactive decision making with intuitionistic fuzzy information, and the extended results in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environments.
Minatour, Yasser; Bonakdari, Hossein; Zarghami, Mahdi; Bakhshi, Maryam Ali
The purpose of this study was to develop a group fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method to be applied in rating problems associated with water resources management. Thus, here Chen's group fuzzy TOPSIS method extended by a difference technique to handle uncertainties of applying a group decision making. Then, the extended group fuzzy TOPSIS method combined with a consistency check. In the presented method, initially linguistic judgments are being surveyed via a consistency checking process, and afterward these judgments are being used in the extended Chen's fuzzy TOPSIS method. Here, each expert's opinion is turned to accurate mathematical numbers and, then, to apply uncertainties, the opinions of group are turned to fuzzy numbers using three mathematical operators. The proposed method is applied to select the optimal strategy for the rural water supply of Nohoor village in north-eastern Iran, as a case study and illustrated example. Sensitivity analyses test over results and comparing results with project reality showed that proposed method offered good results for water resources projects.
Phillips, Susan D.; And Others
Examined the role of rational, intuitive, and dependent decisional strategies in facilitating decisions about postcollege occupation among college students (N=71). Results indicated that the use of a dependent decision-making style was the single most powerful predictor of progress. (LLL)
Mohamad, Shahriari; Aliandrina, Dessy; Feng, Yan
The aim of this paper was to identify human errors in decision making process. The study was focused on a research question such as: what could be the human error as a potential of decision failure in evaluation of the alternatives in the process of decision making. Two case studies were selected from the literature and analyzed to find the human errors contribute to decision fail. Then the analysis of human errors was linked with mental models in evaluation of alternative step. The results o...
Full Text Available Predicting of the best teacher in Indonesia aims to spur the development of the growth and improve the quality of the education. In this paper, the predicting of the best teacher is implemented based on predefined criteria. To help the predicting process, a decision support system is needed. This paper employs Multi Atribute Decesion Making Weighted Product (MADMWP method. The result of this method is tested some teachers in junior high school islamic boarding Al-Barokah school, Simalungun, North Sumatera, Indonesia. This system can be used to help in solving problems of the best teacher prediction.
Cunningham, S.W.; van der Lei, T.E.
Technology managers increasingly face problems of group decision. The scale and complexity of research, development and alliance efforts in emerging fields of technology mandate a correspondingly sophisticated form of group coordination. Information technology, biotechnology and nanotechnology are
Full Text Available Our paper presents a short overview of the educational methods used in the learning process in telecommunication domain, targeting skills and competences students acquire and develop during the semester and focusing on the ones that are most valuable and appreciated on the labor market after graduation. Our research of the market shows that besides basic engineering knowledge, skills like initiative, team-playing, business analysis, decision-making, marketing and creative project presentation are considered very valuable assets by HR recruiters. We implement and test an improved method that combines classic techniques with the use of modern digital tools, emphasizing on specific tasks that coach the student how to deal with real markets, extract valuable data through analysis, design up-to-date computer-networks, make correlated decisions based also on economic arguments, team working and assume responsibilities. This is achieved through a real-case study and project themes for computer-networks that involve real situations with technical and budgetary challenges, market analysis and research through online facilities and dealing with specialized software for network design and simulation with a creative presentation. The presented approach is intended to prepare faculty staff to implement innovative and self-improving teaching methods in engineering educational process and thus make an educational reform happen .
Yongquan, Sun; Xi, Chen; He, Ren; Yingchao, Jin; Quanwu, Liu
Ordering decision-making on spare parts is crucial in maximizing aircraft utilization and minimizing total operating cost. Extensive researches on spare parts inventory management and optimal allocation could be found based on the amount of historical operation data or condition-monitoring data. However, it is challengeable to make an ordering decision on spare parts under the case of establishment of a fleet by introducing new aircraft with little historical data. In this paper, spare parts supporting policy and ordering decision-making policy for new aircraft fleet are analyzed firstly. Then two-sample predictions for a Weibull distribution and a Weibull process are incorporated into forecast of the first failure time and failure number during certain time period using Bayesian and classical method respectively, according to which the ordering time and ordering quantity for spare parts are identified. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate the methods of identifying the ordering time and ordering number of engine-driven pumps through forecasting the failure time and failure number, followed by a discussion on the impact of various fleet sizes on prediction results. This method has the potential to decide the ordering time and quantity of spare parts when a new aircraft fleet is established. - Highlights: • A modeling framework of ordering spare parts for a new fleet is proposed. • Models for ordering time and number are established based on two-sample prediction. • The computation of future failure time is simplified using Newtonian binomial law. • Comparison of the first failure time PDFs is used to identify process parameters. • Identification methods for spare parts are validated by Engine Driven Pump case study.
... For Teens: How to Make Healthy Decisions About Sex Page Content Article Body Before you decide to ... alcohol or use drugs. Are You Ready for Sex? Sex can change your life and relationships. Having ...
.... The separation of psychology into sub-disciplines or paradigms that don't talk to one another. 3. The failure to distinguish between technical and common language usage when dealing with concepts such as decision making and command...
Full Text Available Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers, whose irreverence does not entail any juridical sanctions, rather its application is sanctioned by the self - awareness. The acception and stability of the ethical aspect price decision making are determined by the characteristic of selected marketing environment.
Baybutt, P.; Cox, D.C.; Denning, R.S.; Kurth, R.E.; Fraley, D.W.; Heaberlin, S.W.
This paper describes research conducted in an ongoing program at Battelle to develop and adapt decision analysis methods for regulatory decision making. A general approach to risk-based decision making is discussed. The nature of uncertainties in risk assessment is described and methods for their inclusion in decision making are proposed. The use of decision analysis methods in regulatory decision making and the consideration of uncertainties is illustrated in a realistic case study
Krishnamoorthy, Kannan; Mahalingam, Manikandan
The present study is aimed to select the suitable method for preparation of camptothecin loaded polymeric nanoparticles by utilizing the multi-criteria decision making method. Novel approaches of drug delivery by formulation using nanotechnology are revolutionizing the future of medicine. Recent years have witnessed unprecedented growth of research and application in the area of nanotechnology. Nanoparticles have become an important area of research in the field of drug delivery because they have the ability to deliver a wide range of drug to varying areas of body. Despite of extensive research and development, polymeric nanoparticles are frequently used to improve the therapeutic effect of drugs. A number of techniques are available for the preparation of polymeric nanoparticles. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a method for decision making, which are derived from individual judgements for qualitative factors, using the pair-wise comparison matrix. In AHP, a decision hierarchy is constructed with a goal, criteria and alternatives. The model uses three main criteria 1) Instrument, 2) Process and Output and 3) Cost. In addition, there are eight sub-criteria's as well as eight alternatives. Pair-wise comparison matrixes are used to obtain the overall priority weight and ranking for the selection of suitable method. Nanoprecipitation technique is the most suitable method for the preparation of camptothecin loaded polymeric nanoparticles with the highest overall priority weight of 0.297 CONCLUSION: In particular, the result indicates that the priority weights obtained from AHP could be defined as a multiple output for finding out the most suitable method for preparation of camptothecin loaded polymeric nanoparticles.
Ong, D; Khaddaj, Souheil; Bashroush, Rabih
Most intelligent systems have some form of \\ud decision making mechanisms built into their \\ud organisations. These normally include a logical \\ud reasoning element into their design. This paper reviews \\ud and compares the different logical reasoning strategies, \\ud and tries to address the accuracy and precision of \\ud decision making by formulating a tolerance to \\ud imprecision view which can be used in conjunction with \\ud the various reasoning strategies.
Homberg, Judith R
Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cunningham, S.W.; van der Lei, T.E.
Technology managers increasingly face problems of group decision. The scale and complexity of research, development and alliance efforts in emerging fields of technology mandate a correspondingly sophisticated form of group coordination. Information technology, biotechnology and nanotechnology are good examples of sectors with complex coordination problems. Choices made include the selection of projects, the choice of investment alternatives, and the formation of technology licensing agreemen...
Dierickx, Susan; O'Neill, Sarah; Gryseels, Charlotte; Immaculate Anyango, Edna; Bannister-Tyrrell, Melanie; Okebe, Joseph; Mwesigwa, Julia; Jaiteh, Fatou; Gerrets, René; Ravinetto, Raffaella; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Peeters Grietens, Koen
Ensuring individual free and informed decision-making for research participation is challenging. It is thought that preliminarily informing communities through 'community sensitization' procedures may improve individual decision-making. This study set out to assess the relevance of community sensitization for individual decision-making in research participation in rural Gambia. This anthropological mixed-methods study triangulated qualitative methods and quantitative survey methods in the context of an observational study and a clinical trial on malaria carried out by the Medical Research Council Unit Gambia. Although 38.7% of the respondents were present during sensitization sessions, 91.1% of the respondents were inclined to participate in the trial when surveyed after the sensitization and prior to the informed consent process. This difference can be explained by the informal transmission of information within the community after the community sensitization, expectations such as the benefits of participation based on previous research experiences, and the positive reputation of the research institute. Commonly mentioned barriers to participation were blood sampling and the potential disapproval of the household head. Community sensitization is effective in providing first-hand, reliable information to communities as the information is cascaded to those who could not attend the sessions. However, further research is needed to assess how the informal spread of information further shapes people's expectations, how the process engages with existing social relations and hierarchies (e.g. local political power structures; permissions of heads of households) and how this influences or changes individual consent. © 2017 The Authors Developing World Bioethics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Full Text Available The aim of this study is to develop a new closeness degree-based hesitant trapezoidal fuzzy (HTrF multicriteria decision making (MCDM approach for identifying the most appropriate green suppliers in food supply chain involving uncertain qualitative evaluation information. The uniqueness of the proposed HTrF MCDM method is the consideration of uncertain qualitative information represented by flexible linguistic expressions based on HTrF values and the construction of compromise solution with the revised closeness degree. The revised closeness degree can make sure that the most appropriate solution has the shortest distance from the HTrF positive ideal solution and the farthest distance from the HTrF negative ideal solution, simultaneously. This proposed HTrF MCDM technique not only offers a simple and efficient decision support tool to aid the food firms for identifying the optimal suppliers in food supply chain but also can enable the managers of food firms to better understand the complete evaluation and decision processes. In addition, this study provides a novel defuzzification technique to manage the HTrF weights values of main-criteria and subcriteria, respectively.
Full Text Available With respect to multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM problems, where attribute values take the form of interval grey trapezoid fuzzy linguistic variables (IGTFLVs and the weights (including expert and attribute weight are unknown, improved grey relational MAGDM methods are proposed. First, the concept of IGTFLV, the operational rules, the distance between IGTFLVs, and the projection formula between the two IGTFLV vectors are defined. Second, the expert weights are determined by using the maximum proximity method based on the projection values between the IGTFLV vectors. The attribute weights are determined by the maximum deviation method and the priorities of alternatives are determined by improved grey relational analysis. Finally, an example is given to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method and the flexibility of IGTFLV.
Yin, Kedong; Wang, Pengyu; Li, Xuemei
With respect to multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems, where attribute values take the form of interval grey trapezoid fuzzy linguistic variables (IGTFLVs) and the weights (including expert and attribute weight) are unknown, improved grey relational MAGDM methods are proposed. First, the concept of IGTFLV, the operational rules, the distance between IGTFLVs, and the projection formula between the two IGTFLV vectors are defined. Second, the expert weights are determined by using the maximum proximity method based on the projection values between the IGTFLV vectors. The attribute weights are determined by the maximum deviation method and the priorities of alternatives are determined by improved grey relational analysis. Finally, an example is given to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method and the flexibility of IGTFLV.
Full Text Available The analysis of the internal environment of the enterprise is aimed at assessing the strategic potential of the enterprise as a whole and its individual functional subsystems. The efficient activity of enterprise cannot be realized without a systematic definition and using the existing capabilities since, as a rule, the potential of the organization is higher than its actual implementation. It is not possible to put forward long-term goals, to form the most optimal strategy to achieve them without the characteristics of accumulated enterprises potential. From this point, the purpose of the paper is to study and establish the criteria that characterize the inner potential of the company during the implementation of assortment strategies. The method of evaluating of these indicators, as well as the selection of the assortment strategy according to the results has been suggested. Methods. The research of the internal potential of PJSC “Mykolaiv bakery № 1” is based on the expert questionnaire, which made it possible not only to identify a number of criteria for internal enterprises environment, which made it possible not only to identify a number of criteria for internal environment, as well as by experts to determine the parameter and boundary values of coefficients influencing the choice of the assortment strategy. The results of questionnaire showed that the main criteria of the characteristics of the internal potential of the company are: primary phases of the life cycle of the goods (were determined on the basis of the matrix "Market growth – Market Share"; prospects of producing the assortment groups of goods (calculated using the integral coefficient of goods assortment; changes in sales amount (described by trigonometric dependencies; degree of the goods assortment realization (evaluated using the coefficient of realization; assortments balance according to the Pareto rule (based on the Pareto rule, as well as expert survey; the
Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P
Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights
Øzhayat, Esben Boeskov; Gotfredsen, Klaus; Elverdam, Beth
it with a traditional history taking, in generating information to be used in decision making in oral rehabilitation. Fifty-seven participants in need of oral rehabilitation were enrolled in the study. The participants underwent a traditional history taking and were interviewed using the SEIQoL-DW method. The SEIQo......Decision making in oral rehabilitation is often based on diagnoses related to impairment of different oral functions. In making the decision when to treat, the dentist must work in cooperation with the patient. By incorporating patient-generated aspects into the decision making process, the dentist...... percentage of the participants were positive towards the use of the SEIQoL-DW method in their treatment planning. The SEIQoL-DW was considered to be a viable tool for decision making in oral rehabilitation....
Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.
The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)
Rilling, James K; Sanfey, Alan G
Given that we live in highly complex social environments, many of our most important decisions are made in the context of social interactions. Simple but sophisticated tasks from a branch of experimental economics known as game theory have been used to study social decision-making in the laboratory setting, and a variety of neuroscience methods have been used to probe the underlying neural systems. This approach is informing our knowledge of the neural mechanisms that support decisions about trust, reciprocity, altruism, fairness, revenge, social punishment, social norm conformity, social learning, and competition. Neural systems involved in reward and reinforcement, pain and punishment, mentalizing, delaying gratification, and emotion regulation are commonly recruited for social decisions. This review also highlights the role of the prefrontal cortex in prudent social decision-making, at least when social environments are relatively stable. In addition, recent progress has been made in understanding the neural bases of individual variation in social decision-making.
Cooper, R J; Bissell, P; Wingfield, J
Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making. To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an under-researched professional group. 23 purposively sampled UK community pharmacists were asked, in semi-structured interviews, to describe ethical problems in their work and how they were resolved. Framework analysis of transcribed interviews utilised the four decision-making stages, together with constant comparative methods and deviant-case analysis. Pharmacists were often inattentive and constructed problems in legal terms. Ethical reasoning was limited, but examples of appeals to consequences, the golden rule, religious faith and common-sense experience emerged. Ethical intention was compromised by frequent concern about legal prosecution. Ethical inaction was common, typified by pharmacists' failure to report healthcare professionals' bad practices, and ethical passivity emerged to describe these negative examples of the four decision-making stages. Pharmacists occasionally described more ethically active decision-making, but this often involved ethical uncertainty. The four decision-making stages are a useful tool in considering how healthcare professionals try to resolve ethical problems in practice. They reveal processes often ignored in normative theories, and their recognition and the emergence of ethical passivity indicates the complexity of decision-making in practice. Ethical passivity may be deleterious to patients' welfare, and concerns emerge about improving pharmacists' ethical training and promoting ethical awareness and responsibility.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Paramedics make important and increasingly complex decisions at scene about patient care. Patient safety implications of influences on decision making in the pre-hospital setting were previously under-researched. Cutting edge perspectives advocate exploring the whole system rather than individual influences on patient safety. Ethnography (the study of people and cultures has been acknowledged as a suitable method for identifying health care issues as they occur within the natural context. In this paper we compare multiple methods used in a multi-site, qualitative study that aimed to identify system influences on decision making. Methods The study was conducted in three NHS Ambulance Trusts in England and involved researchers from each Trust working alongside academic researchers. Exploratory interviews with key informants e.g. managers (n = 16 and document review provided contextual information. Between October 2012 and July 2013 researchers observed 34 paramedic shifts and ten paramedics provided additional accounts via audio-recorded ‘digital diaries’ (155 events. Three staff focus groups (total n = 21 and three service user focus groups (total n = 23 explored a range of experiences and perceptions. Data collection and analysis was carried out by academic and ambulance service researchers as well as service users. Workshops were held at each site to elicit feedback on the findings and facilitate prioritisation of issues identified. Results The use of a multi-method qualitative approach allowed cross-validation of important issues for ambulance service staff and service users. A key factor in successful implementation of the study was establishing good working relationships with academic and ambulance service teams. Enrolling at least one research lead at each site facilitated the recruitment process as well as study progress. Active involvement with the study allowed ambulance service researchers and service
This report presents the results of twenty competitively funded Science-To-Achieve-Results (STAR) grants in EPA's Environmental Public Health Indicators (EPHI) research program. The grantsdirectly supported health interventions, informed policy and decision-making, and improved t...
McNergney, Robert; Hinson, Stephanie
Describes Teacher Development Decision Exercises, a computer-based method of diagnosing abilities of elementary and secondary school supervisors (principals, staff developers, curriculum coordinators) to make professional preactive or planning decisions. This approval simulates assessment of supervisors' abilities to use professional knowledge to…
Rutherford, Claudia; Mercieca-Bebber, Rebecca; Butow, Phyllis; Wu, Jenny Liang; King, Madeleine T
Decision-making in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is complex due to the heterogeneity of the disease. This study aimed to understand women's experience of making treatment decisions for DCIS, their information and support needs, and factors that influenced decisions. We searched six electronic databases, conference proceedings, and key authors. Two reviewers independently applied inclusion and quality criteria, and extracted findings. Thematic analysis was used to combine and summarise findings. We identified six themes and 28 subthemes from 18 studies. Women with DCIS have knowledge deficits about DCIS, experience anxiety related to information given at diagnosis and the complexity of decision-making, and have misconceptions regarding risks and outcomes of treatment. Women's decisions are influenced by their understanding of risk, the clinical features of their DCIS, and the benefits and harms of treatment options. Women are dissatisfied with the decisional support available. Informed and shared decision-making in this complex decision setting requires clear communication of information specific to DCIS and individual's, as well as decision support for patients and clinicians. This approach would educate patients and clinicians, and assist clinicians in supporting patients to an evidence-based treatment plan that aligns with individual values and pReferences. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....
Carlevaro, F.; Garbely, M.; Genoud, S.
This final report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the results of a study made on the possibilities of establishing a system of indicators that allows the monitoring of sustainable development and its effects, as stipulated in the Agenda 21. The report presents the findings of the study on criteria and indicators for sustainability in the energy area. The challenge posed by the synthesis of information from a system of indicators is discussed and four general approaches are proposed, compared and tested for the monitoring of sustainability in the energy area. These include the calculation of a composite index from several indicators, a similar process that uses statistical methods of dimensional reduction, methods for the measurement of productivity loaned from economics and a method for decision-making using multiple criteria. Examples for the four approaches are given and experience gained in their use - partly in other countries and in United Nations agencies - is discussed.
Stephanie Ying-Fen Chen
Full Text Available Two experiments investigated how category information is used in decision making under uncertainty and whether the framing of category information influences how it is used. Subjects were presented with vignettes in which the categorization of a critical item was ambiguous and were asked to choose among a set of actions with the goal of attaining the desired outcome for the main character in the story. The normative decision making strategy was to base the decision on all possible categories; however, research on a related topic, category-based induction, has found that people often only consider a single category when making predictions when categorization is uncertain. These experiments found that subjects tend to consider multiple categories when making decisions, but do so both when it is and is not appropriate, suggesting that use of multiple categories is not driven by an understanding of what categories are and are not relevant to the decision. Similarly, although a framing manipulation increased the rate of multiple-category use, it did so in situations in which multiple-category use was and was not appropriate.
Full Text Available One of the leading descriptive theories of decision-making under risk, Tversky & Kahneman's Prospect theory, reveals that normative explanation of decisionmaking, based only on principle of maximizing outcomes expected utility, is unsustainable. It also underlines the effect of alternative factors on decision-making. Framing effect relates to an influence that verbal formulation of outcomes has on choosing between certain and risky outcomes; in negative frame people tend to be risk seeking, whereas in positive frame people express risk averse tendencies. Individual decisions are not based on objective probabilities of outcomes, but on subjective probabilities that depend on outcome desirability. Unrealistically pessimistic subjects assign lower probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes, while unrealistically optimistic subjects assign higher probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes. Experiment was conducted in order to test the presumption that there's a relation between unrealistic optimism and decision-making under risk. We expected optimists to be risk seeking, and pessimist to be risk averse. We also expected such cognitive tendencies, if they should become manifest, to be framing effect resistant. Unrealistic optimism scale was applied, followed by the questionnaire composed of tasks of decision-making under risk. Results within the whole sample, and results of afterwards extracted groups of pessimists and optimists both revealed dominant risk seeking tendency that is resistant to the influence of subjective probabilities as well as to the influence of frame in which the outcome is presented.
V. V. Nadurak
Full Text Available Purpose of the research is the study of relationship between emotional and rational factors in moral decisions making. Methodology. The work is primarily based on the analysis and synthesis of the main empirical studies of the problem, each of which uses the methods of those sciences in which they were conducted (neurosciences. Originality. In general, the process of moral decision making cannot be described by a single simple model that would see only emotional or rational factor in foundation of this process. Moral decision making is characterized by different types of interaction between emotions and rational considerations. The influence of emotional and rational factors on moral decision is nonlinear: moral decision, which person makes, isn’t proportional to those emotions that preceded it and isn't unambiguously determined by them, because rational reasoning and contextual factors can significantly change it. Similarly, the reasoning that precede the decision is not necessarily reflected in the decision, because it can be significantly corrected by those emotions that accompany it. Conclusions. The process of moral decision making involves complex, heterogeneous interaction between emotional and rational factors. There are three main types of such interaction: first, the reasoning serves to rationalize prior emotional response; second, there are cases when reasoning precedes emotional reactions and determines it; third, interaction between these factors is characterized by cyclic causality (emotion impacts reasoning, which in turn impacts emotions. The influence of emotions or rational reasoning on moral decision is nonlinear.
Full Text Available Combining interval-valued hesitant fuzzy soft sets (IVHFSSs and a new comparative law, we propose a new method, which can effectively solve multiattribute decision-making (MADM problems. Firstly, a characteristic function of two interval values and a new comparative law of interval-valued hesitant fuzzy elements (IVHFEs based on the possibility degree are proposed. Then, we define two important definitions of IVHFSSs including the interval-valued hesitant fuzzy soft quasi subset and soft quasi equal based on the new comparative law. Finally, an algorithm is presented to solve MADM problems. We also use the method proposed in this paper to evaluate the importance of major components of the well drilling mud pump.
Jose R. Celaya
Full Text Available As fault diagnosis and prognosis systems in aerospace applications become more capable, the ability to utilize information supplied by them becomes increasingly important. While certain types of vehicle health data can be effectively processed and acted upon by crew or support personnel, others, due to their complexity or time constraints, require either automated or semi-automated reasoning. Prognostics-enabled Decision Making (PDM is an emerging research area that aims to integrate prognostic health information and knowledge about the future operating conditions into the process of selecting subsequent actions for the system. The newly developed PDM algorithms require suitable software and hardware platforms for testing under realistic fault scenarios. The paper describes the development of such a platform, based on the K11 planetary rover prototype. A variety of injectable fault modes are being investigated for electrical, mechanical, and power subsystems of the testbed, along with methods for data collection and processing. In addition to the hardware platform, a software simulator with matching capabilities has been developed. The simulator allows for prototyping and initial validation of the algorithms prior to their deployment on the K11. The simulator is also available to the PDM algorithms to assist with the reasoning process. A reference set of diagnostic, prognostic, and decision making algorithms is also described, followed by an overview of the current test scenarios and the results of their execution on the simulator.
Leatherman, Martha E; Goethe, Katherine E
The goal of this column is to help experienced clinicians navigate the judicial system when they are confronted with requests for capacity evaluations that involve guardianship (conservatorship). The interface between the growing elderly medical population and increasing requests for substituted decision making is becoming more complex. This column will help practicing psychiatrists understand the medical, legal, and societal factors involved in adult guardianship. Such understanding is necessary in order to effectively perform guardianship evaluations and adequately inform courts, patients, and families about the psychiatric diagnoses central to substituted decision making.
Johnson, Maxine; O'Hara, Rachel; Hirst, Enid; Weyman, Andrew; Turner, Janette; Mason, Suzanne; Quinn, Tom; Shewan, Jane; Siriwardena, A Niroshan
Paramedics make important and increasingly complex decisions at scene about patient care. Patient safety implications of influences on decision making in the pre-hospital setting were previously under-researched. Cutting edge perspectives advocate exploring the whole system rather than individual influences on patient safety. Ethnography (the study of people and cultures) has been acknowledged as a suitable method for identifying health care issues as they occur within the natural context. In this paper we compare multiple methods used in a multi-site, qualitative study that aimed to identify system influences on decision making. The study was conducted in three NHS Ambulance Trusts in England and involved researchers from each Trust working alongside academic researchers. Exploratory interviews with key informants e.g. managers (n = 16) and document review provided contextual information. Between October 2012 and July 2013 researchers observed 34 paramedic shifts and ten paramedics provided additional accounts via audio-recorded 'digital diaries' (155 events). Three staff focus groups (total n = 21) and three service user focus groups (total n = 23) explored a range of experiences and perceptions. Data collection and analysis was carried out by academic and ambulance service researchers as well as service users. Workshops were held at each site to elicit feedback on the findings and facilitate prioritisation of issues identified. The use of a multi-method qualitative approach allowed cross-validation of important issues for ambulance service staff and service users. A key factor in successful implementation of the study was establishing good working relationships with academic and ambulance service teams. Enrolling at least one research lead at each site facilitated the recruitment process as well as study progress. Active involvement with the study allowed ambulance service researchers and service users to gain a better understanding of the research
SM Turpin; MA Marais
This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, ...
Wang, Lu; Xu, Lisheng; Feng, Shuting; Meng, Max Q-H; Wang, Kuanquan
Analysis of pulse waveform is a low cost, non-invasive method for obtaining vital information related to the conditions of the cardiovascular system. In recent years, different Pulse Decomposition Analysis (PDA) methods have been applied to disclose the pathological mechanisms of the pulse waveform. All these methods decompose single-period pulse waveform into a constant number (such as 3, 4 or 5) of individual waves. Furthermore, those methods do not pay much attention to the estimation error of the key points in the pulse waveform. The estimation of human vascular conditions depends on the key points' positions of pulse wave. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Gaussian (MG) model to fit real pulse waveforms using an adaptive number (4 or 5 in our study) of Gaussian waves. The unknown parameters in the MG model are estimated by the Weighted Least Squares (WLS) method and the optimized weight values corresponding to different sampling points are selected by using the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method. Performance of the MG model and the WLS method has been evaluated by fitting 150 real pulse waveforms of five different types. The resulting Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) was less than 2.0% and the estimation accuracy for the key points was satisfactory, demonstrating that our proposed method is effective in compressing, synthesizing and analyzing pulse waveforms. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) measures affective decision making and has revealed decision making impairments across a wide range of eating disorders. This study aimed to investigate affective decision making in severely obese individuals.
Cho, Seongkyung; Choi, Seungho; Kim, Hyerim; Song, Jiyeon; Lee, Yoonsup; Sohn, Seohyun
This study was done in order to anticipate the aspect of publicity enhancement on nuclear spent fuel so that it can find the evaluation methods of alternative ways of management which could applied actually and make the decision making system of Publicity Enhancement Committee in advance. In Korea, the nuclear spent fuel is temporarily stored inside of the nuclear facility field, and it is expected that Gori nuclear facility is going to be saturated since 2016 but the solutions are still incomplete. The problem of management of nuclear spent fuel is an important issue in terms of not only the nuclear power policy but also of safe management of the already made nuclear spent fuel. This study has its meaning to draw the evaluation criteria of the management alternatives on nuclear spent fuel which can be applied in Korean case, and to find the necessity of verifying the evaluation of management alternatives through Publicity Enhancement because of different stands according to the interests. As a result, rather than technological engineering safety evaluation, qualitative analysis in terms of social costs, quantitative evaluation in terms of economic costs, this study advises the methods of public hearings and citizen juries which are effective, which makes it meaningful
V. V. Nadurak
Purpose of the research is the study of relationship between emotional and rational factors in moral decisions making. Methodology. The work is primarily based on the analysis and synthesis of the main empirical studies of the problem, each of which uses the methods of those sciences in which they were conducted (neurosciences). Originality. In general, the process of moral decision making cannot be described by a single simple model that would see only emotional or rational factor in foundat...
The topic of this thesis is about moral decision-making, and the main objective of this study is to research the moral decision-making of Chinese business managers based on the analysis of data. The study adopts systematic literature of qualitative research method and is constructed by means of qualitative analysis of 64 data articles. The 64 data articles are the journals from the Database of Chinese Academic Journals, Journal of Business Ethics and other leading business journals from the y...
Madsen, Henrik; Albeanu, Grigore; Burtschy, Bernard
Decision making addresses the usage of various methods to select "the best", in some way, alternative strategy (from many available) when a problem is given for solving. The authors propose the usage of neutrosophic way of thinking, called also Smarandache's logic, to select a model by experts when...... degrees of trustability, ultrastability (falsehood), and indeterminacy are used to decide. The procedures deal with multi-attribute neutrosophic decision making and a case study on e-learning software objects is presented....
Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...
Aim The aim of this study is to develop an understanding of the factors which influence veterinary surgeons’ clinical decision making during routine consultations. Methods The research takes a qualitative approach using video-cued interviews, in which one of the veterinary surgeon’s own consultations is used as the basis of a semi-structured interview exploring decision making in real cases. The research focuses primarily on small animal consultations in first opinion practice, how...
exploration and elaboration of both rational and intuitive decision making processes. In addition, emotions may also play an important role in...More specifically, it suggests that both rational and intuitive decision making processes are likely to play an important role in ethical decision ...and military literature related to ethical decision making more generally. Specifically, it suggests that both rational and intuitive decision making
Tanderup, Malene; Reddy, Sunita; Patel, Tulsi; Nielsen, Birgitte Bruun
To investigate ethical issues in informed consent for decisions regarding embryo transfer and fetal reduction in commercial gestational surrogacy. Mixed methods study employing observations, an interview-guide and semi-structured interviews. Fertility clinics and agencies in Delhi, India, between December 2011 and December 2012. Doctors providing conceptive technologies to commissioning couples and carrying out surrogacy procedures; surrogate mothers; agents functioning as links for surrogacy. Interviews using semi-structured interview guides were carried out among 20 doctors in 18 fertility clinics, five agents from four agencies and 14 surrogate mothers. Surrogate mothers were interviewed both individually and in the presence of doctors and agents. Data on socio-economic context and experiences among and between various actors in the surrogacy process were coded to identify categories of ethical concern. Numerical and grounded theory-oriented analyses were used. Informed consent, number of embryos transferred, fetal reduction, conflict of interest among the involved parties. None of the 14 surrogate mothers were able to explain the risks involved in embryo transfer and fetal reduction. The majority of the doctors took unilateral decisions about embryo transfer and fetal reduction. The commissioning parents were usually only indirectly involved. In the qualitative analysis, difficulties in explaining procedures, autonomy, self-payment of fertility treatment and conflicts of interest were the main themes. Clinical procedural decisions were primarily made by the doctors. Surrogate mothers were not adequately informed. There is a need for regulation on decision-making procedures to safeguard the interests of surrogate mothers. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.
Few topics in pediatric bioethics are as vexing as decision-making. Decision-making in pediatrics presents challenges for children, parents, and physicians alike. The related, yet distinct, concepts of assent and consent are central to pediatric decision-making. Although informed consent is largely regarded as a worthwhile adult principle, assent has been, and continues to be, mired in debate. Controversial subjects include a meaningful definition of assent; how old children should be to assent; who should be included in the assent process; parental permission; how to resolve disputes between children and their parents; the relationship between assent and consent; the quantity and quality of information to disclose to children and their families; how much and what information children desire and need; the necessity and methods for assessing both children's understanding of disclosed information and of the assent process itself; reconciling ethical and legal attitudes toward assent; and finally, an effective, practical, and realistically applicable decision-making model.
Jozi Ali Seyed
Full Text Available Growing importance of environmental issues at global and regional levels including pollution of water, air etc. as well as the outcomes such as global warming and climate change has led to being considered environmental aspects as effective factors for power generation. Study ahead, aims at examination of risks resulting from activities of Yazd Combined Cycle Power Plant located in Iran. Method applied in the research is analytical hierarchy process. After identification of factors causing risk, the analytical hierarchy structure of the power plant risks were designed and weight of the criteria and sub-criteria were calculated by intensity probability product using Eigenvector Method and EXPERT CHOICE Software as well. Results indicate that in technological, health-safety, biophysical and socio economic sections of the power plant, factors influenced by the power plant activities like fire and explosion, hearing loss, quantity of groundwater, power generation are among the most important factors causing risk in the power plant. The drop in underground water levels is the most important natural consequence influenced on Yazd Combined Cycle Power Plant.
Presented is an outline of a college course, "Education in American Society," that focused on teaching students rational decision-making skills while examining current issues in American Education. The outline is followed by student comments, reactions, and evaluations of the course. (JMD)
This thesis consists of five projects in three topics with a shared theme of understanding cellular decision-making processes with mathematical modeling. In the first topic, we address the possible interaction between bacterial Toxin-Antitoxin (TA) systems and stringent response alarmone guanosin...
de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique
If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...
Full Text Available The aim of the present work was to optimize the sensorial and technological features of ice cream. The experimental work was performed in two stages: 1 optimization of lactose enzymatic hydrolysis, and 2 optimization of the process and product. For the first stage a complete factorial design was developed, optimized using both response surface and the steepest ascent method. In the second stage a mixture design was performed, combining the process variables. The product with the best sensorial acceptance, high yield and low cost was selected. The acceptance of the product was developed by an untrained taster’s panel. As a main result the sensorial and technological features of the final product were improved, establishing the optimum parameters for its elaboration.
Full Text Available Each of us makes a number of decisions, from the less important to those with far-reaching consequences. As members of different groups, we are also actors of group decision making. In order to make a rational decision, a choice-making procedure must satisfy a number of assumptions (conditions of rationality. In addition, when it comes to group decisions, those procedures should also be “fair.” However, it is not possible to define a procedure of choice-making that would transform individual orders of alternatives based on preferences of perfectly rational individuals into a single social order and still meet conditions of rationality and ethics. The theory of deliberative democracy appeared in response to the impossibility of Social Choice theory. The basic assumption of deliberative democracy is that individuals adjust their preferences taking into account interests of the community. They are open for discussion with other group members and are willing to change their attitudes in order to achieve common interests. Ideally, group members come to an agreement during public discussion (deliberation. Still, this concept cannot completely overcome all the difficulties posed by the theory of social choice. Specifically, there is no solution for strategic and manipulative behavior of individuals. Also, the concept of deliberative democracy faces certain problems particular to this approach, such as, to name but a few, problems with the establishment of equality of participants in the debate and their motivation, as well as problems with the organization of public hearings. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47009: Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU i br. 179015: Izazovi i perspektive strukturnih promena u Srbiji: Strateški pravci ekonomskog razvoja i usklađivanje sa zahtevima EU
A. R. Abdul Rasam
Full Text Available Development of an innovative method to enhance the detection of tuberculosis (TB in Malaysia is the latest agenda of the Ministry of Health. Therefore, a geographical information system (GIS based index model is proposed as an alternative method for defining potential high-risk areas of local TB cases at Section U19, Shah Alam. It is adopted a spatial multi-criteria decision making (MCDM method for ranking environmental risk factors of the disease in a standardised five-score scale. Scale 1 and 5 illustrate the lowest and the highest risk of the TB spread respectively, while scale from 3 to 5 is included as a potential risk level. These standardised scale values are then combined with expert normalised weights (0 to 1 to calculate the overall index values and produce a TB ranked map using a GIS overlay analysis and weighted linear combination. It is discovered that 71.43% of the Section is potential as TB high risk areas particularly at urban and densely populated settings. This predictive result is also reliable with the current real cases in 2015 by 76.00% accuracy. A GIS based MCDM method has demonstrated analytical capabilities in targeting high-risk spots and TB surveillance monitoring system of the country, but the result could be strengthened by applying other uncertainty assessment method.
Çalışkan, Halil; Kurşuncu, Bilal; Kurbanoğlu, Cahit; Güven, Şevki Yılmaz
Highlights: ► The material selection problem for tool holders used in hard milling was solved. ► EXPROM2, TOPSIS and VIKOR methods were used for ranking the alternative materials. ► The weighting of criteria was performed by compromised weighting method. ► The best material for the tool holder was selected as Fe–5Cr–Mo–V aircraft steel. -- Abstract: Nowadays machining of materials in their hardened state, also called hard machining, is a challenge in production of tools and molds. It has some advantages such as lower process time and lower manufacturing cost when compared to conventional machining. In machining of hard workpiece materials, however, very high stresses act on the tool holder through the cutting tool. These stresses necessitate the tool holder to have some specific properties. Especially in hard milling, the tool holder should have high stiffness and should be able to dissipate the energy generated during interrupted cutting. Material cost of the tool holder is also important since lower costs provide a competitive advantage for manufacturers. The material selection for the tool holder should be conducted considering aforementioned requirements. To tackle the difficulty of the material selection with specific properties from a large number of alternatives, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods have been used. In this paper a decision model including extended PROMETHEE II (EXPROM2) (preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation), TOPSIS (technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution) and VIKOR (VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje) methods were used for the selection of the best material for the tool holder used in hard milling. The criteria weighting was performed by compromised weighting method composed of AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and Entropy methods. The candidate materials were ranked by using these methods and the results obtained by each method were compared. It was confirmed
García Mejía, Jaime Andrés
Abstract: Strategic information technology (IT) management has been recognized as vital for achieving competitive advantage. IT selection, the process of choosing the best technology alternative from a number of available options, is an important part of IT management. The IT selection is a multi-criteria decision making process, where relative importance of each criterion is determined and the degree of satisfaction of every criterion from each alternative is evaluated. Decision makers (DMs)...
There is a fundamental difference between the acceptability of a civilizatory or societal risk and the acceptability of the decision-making process that leads to a civilizatory or societal risk. The analysis of individual risk decisions - regarding who, executes when which indisputably hazardous, unhealthy or dangerous behaviour under which circumstances - is not helpful in finding solutions for the political decisions at hand in Germany concerning nuclear energy in particular or energy in general. The debt for implementation of any technology, in the sense of making the technology a success in terms of broad acceptance and general utilisation, lies with the particular industry involved. Regardless of the technology, innovation research identifies the implementation phase as most critical to the success of any innovation. In this sense, nuclear technology is at best still an innovation, because the implementation has not yet been completed. Fear and opposition to innovation are ubiquitous. Even the economy - which is often described as 'rational' - is full of this resistance. Innovation has an impact on the pivotal point between stability, the presupposition for the successful execution of decisions already taken and instability, which includes insecurity, but is also necessary for the success of further development. By definition, innovations are beyond our sphere of experience; not at the level of reliability and trust yet to come. Yet they are evaluated via the simplifying heuristics for making decisions proven not only to be necessary and useful, but also accurate in the familiar. The 'settlement of the debt of implementation', the accompanying communication, the decision-making procedures concerning the regulation of averse effects of the technology, but also the tailoring of the new technology or service itself must be directed to appropriate target groups. But the group often aimed at in the nuclear debate, the group, which largely determines political
Légaré, France; Stacey, Dawn; Gagnon, Susie; Dunn, Sandy; Pluye, Pierre; Frosch, Dominick; Kryworuchko, Jennifer; Elwyn, Glyn; Gagnon, Marie-Pierre; Graham, Ian D
Rationale, aims and objectives Following increased interest in having inter-professional (IP) health care teams engage patients in decision making, we developed a conceptual model for an IP approach to shared decision making (SDM) in primary care. We assessed the validity of the model with stakeholders in Canada. Methods In 15 individual interviews and 7 group interviews with 79 stakeholders, we asked them to: (1) propose changes to the IP-SDM model; (2) identify barriers and facilitators to the model's implementation in clinical practice; and (3) assess the model using a theory appraisal questionnaire. We performed a thematic analysis of the transcripts and a descriptive analysis of the questionnaires. Results Stakeholders suggested placing the patient at its centre; extending the concept of family to include significant others; clarifying outcomes; highlighting the concept of time; merging the micro, meso and macro levels in one figure; and recognizing the influence of the environment and emotions. The most common barriers identified were time constraints, insufficient resources and an imbalance of power among health professionals. The most common facilitators were education and training in inter-professionalism and SDM, motivation to achieve an IP approach to SDM, and mutual knowledge and understanding of disciplinary roles. Most stakeholders considered that the concepts and relationships between the concepts were clear and rated the model as logical, testable, having clear schematic representation, and being relevant to inter-professional collaboration, SDM and primary care. Conclusions Stakeholders validated the new IP-SDM model for primary care settings and proposed few modifications. Future research should assess if the model helps implement SDM in IP clinical practice. PMID:20695950
Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris
Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in
Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.
To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...
Parsons, S.; Jennings, N. R.
This paper summarises our on-going work on mixed- initiative decision making which extends both classical decision theory and a symbolic theory of decision making based on argumentation to a multi-agent domain.
Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa, E-mail: email@example.com [Associacao de Medicina Intensiva Brasileira (AMIB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Irmandade da Santa Casa de Misericordia de Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Ferreira, Bruna Cortez [Hospital de Base de Sao Jose do Rio Preto, SP (Brazil)
The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw-Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. (author)
Luiz Henrique Costa Garcia
Full Text Available The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw- Hill Education; British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters; Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations.
Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa; Ferreira, Bruna Cortez
The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw-Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. (author)
While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the
In modern water management, often transdisciplinary work sessions are organized in which various stakeholders participate to jointly define problems, choose measures and divide responsibilities to take actions. Involved stakeholders are for example policy analysts or decision-makers from municipalities, water boards or provinces, representatives of pressure groups and researchers from knowledge institutes. Parallel to this increasing attention for transdisciplinary work sessions, we see a growing availability of interactive IT-tools that can be applied during these sessions. For example, dynamic flood risk maps have become recently available that allow users during a work sessions to instantaneously assess the impact of storm surges or dam breaches, displayed on digital maps. Other examples are serious games, realistic visualizations and participatory simulations. However, the question is if and how these interactive IT-tools contribute to better decision-making. To assess this, we take the process of knowledge construction during a work session as a measure for the quality of decision-making. Knowledge construction can be defined as the process in which ideas, perspectives and opinions of different stakeholders, all having their own expertise and experience, are confronted with each other and new shared meanings towards water management issues are created. We present an assessment method to monitor the process of knowledge construction during work sessions in water management in which interactive IT tools are being used. The assessment method is based on a literature review, focusing on studies in which knowledge construction was monitored in other contexts that water management. To test the applicability of the assessment method, we applied it during a multi-stakeholder work session in Westland, located in the southwest of the Netherlands. The discussions during the work session were observed by camera. All statements, expressed by the various members of a
and Einhom (1991); Zeelenberg et al. (1997). This environmental context also makes it difficult to associate measured personality traits with specific... Zeelenberg and Beattie5 (1997): People are motivated to minimize post-decision regret. As a result people can become risk averse or risk seeking...188-201), Ablex, Norwood NJ, 1993. 5 Zeelenberg M. and J. Beattie. "Consequences of regret aversion 2: additional evidence for effects of feedback on
The studies in this thesis show that for older cancer patients, tailor-made care should be the standard of care, striking the golden mean between undertreatment and overtreatment and fully taking into account the heterogeneity of this patient population. The comprehensive geriatric assessment will provide valuable information about a patient’s overall health status, but its exact place within the decision-making process still remains to be defined.
Izquierdo, Alicia; Belcher, Annabelle M
Adaptive decision making affords the animal the ability to respond quickly to changes in a dynamic environment: one in which attentional demands, cost or effort to procure the reward, and reward contingencies change frequently. The more flexible the organism is in adapting choice behavior, the more command and success the organism has in navigating its environment. Maladaptive decision making is at the heart of much neuropsychiatric disease, including addiction. Thus, a better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie normal, adaptive decision making helps achieve a better understanding of certain diseases that incorporate maladaptive decision making as a core feature. This chapter presents three general domains of methods that the experimenter can manipulate in animal decision-making tasks: attention, effort, and reward contingency. Here, we present detailed methods of rodent tasks frequently employed within these domains: the Attentional Set-Shift Task, Effortful T-maze Task, and Visual Discrimination Reversal Learning. These tasks all recruit regions within the frontal cortex and the striatum, and performance is heavily modulated by the neurotransmitter dopamine, making these assays highly valid measures in the study of psychostimulant addiction.
Tanderup, Malene; Reddy, Sunita; Patel, Tulsi
OBJECTIVE: To investigate ethical issues in informed consent for decisions regarding embryo transfer and fetal reduction in commercial gestational surrogacy. DESIGN: Mixed methods study employing observations, an interview-guide and semi-structured interviews. SETTING: Fertility clinics and agenc...
Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato
The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...
Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Tomomi eFujimura; Tomomi eFujimura; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada
The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...
Cooper, R.J.; Bissell, P.; Wingfield, J.
Background: Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making.\\ud \\ud Aims: To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an und...
Hopmans, W.; Damman, O.C.; Senan, S.; Hartemink, K.J.; Smit, E.F.; Timmermans, D.R.M.
Background: Surgery and stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) are both curative treatment options for patients with a stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Consequently, there is growing interest in studying the role of patients in treatment decision making. We studied how patients with
The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...
Baker-Ericzén, Mary J; Jenkins, Melissa M; Park, Soojin; Garland, Ann F
Mental health professionals' decision-making practice is an area of increasing interest and importance, especially in the pediatric research and clinical communities. The present study explored the role of prior training in evidence-based treatments on clinicians' assessment and treatment formulations using case vignettes. Specifically, study aims included using the Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) cognitive theory to 1) examine potential associations between EBT training and decision-making processes (novice versus expert type), and 2) explore how client and family contextual information affects clinical decision-making. Forty-eight clinicians across two groups (EBT trained=14, Not EBT trained=34) participated. Clinicians were comparable on professional experience, demographics, and discipline. The quasi-experimental design used an analog "think aloud" method where clinicians read case vignettes about a child with disruptive behavior problems and verbalized case conceptualization and treatment planning out-loud. Responses were coded according to NDM theory. MANOVA results were significant for EBT training status such that EBT trained clinicians' displayed cognitive processes more closely aligned with "expert" decision-makers and non-EBT trained clinicians' decision processes were more similar to "novice" decision-makers, following NDM theory. Non-EBT trained clinicians assigned significantly more diagnoses, provided less detailed treatment plans and discussed fewer EBTs. Parent/family contextual information also appeared to influence decision-making. This study offers a preliminary investigation of the possible broader impacts of EBT training and potential associations with development of expert decision-making skills. Targeting clinicians' decision-making may be an important avenue to pursue within dissemination-implementation efforts in mental health practice.
Full Text Available This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, and the use of intuition. In terms of the use of decision support technology, the use of self-help tools, such as office software, was clearly favoured.
Martens, Kris M; Vonder Haar, Cole; Hutsell, Blake A; Hoane, Michael R
Traumatic brain injury (TBI) results in a multitude of deficits following injury. Some of the most pervasive in humans are the changes that affect frontally-mediated cognitive functioning, such as decision making. The assessment of decision-making behavior in rodents has been extensively tested in the field of the experimental analysis of behavior. However, due to the narrow therapeutic window following TBI, time-intensive operant paradigms are rarely incorporated into the battery of tests traditionally used, the majority of which assess motor and sensory functioning. The cognitive measures that are used are frequently limited to memory and do not account for changes in decision-making behavior. The purpose of the present study was to develop a simplified discrimination task that can assess deficits in decision-making behavior in rodents. For the task, rats were required to dig in cocoa-scented sand (versus unscented sand) for a reinforcer. Rats were given 12 sessions per day until a criterion level of 80% accuracy for 3 days straight was reached. Once the criterion was achieved, cortical contusion injuries were induced (frontal, parietal, or sham). Following a recovery period, the rats were re-tested on cocoa versus unscented sand. Upon reaching criterion, a reversal discrimination was evaluated in which the reinforcer was placed in unscented sand. Finally, a novel scent discrimination (basil versus coffee with basil reinforced), and a reversal (coffee) were evaluated. The results indicated that the Dig task is a simple experimental preparation that can be used to assess deficits in decision-making behavior following TBI.
Nieto Barthaburu, Augusto
Chapter I of this dissertation addresses the problem of optimally forecasting a binary variable based on a vector of covariates in the context of two different decision making environments. First we consider a single decision maker with given preferences, who has to choose between two actions on the basis of an unobserved binary outcome. Previous research has shown that traditional prediction methods, such as a logit regression estimated by maximum likelihood and combined with a cutoff, may p...
Hoag, Dana L.; Ascough, James C.; Keske-Handley, C.; Koontz, Lynne; Burk, A.R.
Since Ott's seminal book on environmental indices (1978), the use of indices has expanded into several natural resource disciplines, including ecological studies, environmental policymaking, and agricultural economics. However, despite their increasing use in natural resource disciplines, researchers and public decision makers continue to express concern about validity of these instruments to capture and communicate multidimensional, and sometimes disparate, characteristics of research data and stakeholder interests. Our purpose is to demonstrate how useful indices can be for communicating environmental information to decision makers. We discuss how environmental indices have evolved over four stages: 1) simple; 2) compound multicriteria; 3) the impact matrix and 4) disparate stakeholder management. We provide examples of simple and compound indices that were used by policy decision makers. We then build a framework, called an Impact Matrix (IM), that comprehensively accounts for multiple indices but lets the user decide how to integrate them. The IM was shaped from the concept of a financial risk payoff matrix and applied to ecosystem risk. While the IM offers flexibility, it does not address stakeholder preferences about which index to use. Therefore, the last phase in our evolutionary ladder includes stakeholder indices to specifically address disparate stakeholder preferences. Finally, we assert that an environmental index has the potential to increase resource efficiency, since the number of decision making resources may be reduced, and hence improve upon resource productivity
Patel, Vaishali N; Riley, Anne W
A multiple case study was conducted to examine how staff in child out-of-home care programs used data from an Outcomes Management System (OMS) and other sources to inform decision-making. Data collection consisted of thirty-seven semi-structured interviews with clinicians, managers, and directors from two treatment foster care programs and two residential treatment centers, and individuals involved with developing the OMS; and observations of clinical and quality management meetings. Case study and grounded theory methodology guided analyses. The application of qualitative data analysis software is described. Results show that although staff rarely used data from the OMS, they did rely on other sources of systematically collected information to inform clinical, quality management, and program decisions. Analyses of how staff used these data suggest that improving the utility of OMS will involve encouraging staff to participate in data-based decision-making, and designing and implementing OMS in a manner that reflects how decision-making processes operate.
Puts, Martine T E; Sattar, Schroder; McWatters, Kara; Lee, Katherine; Kulik, Michael; MacDonald, Mary-Ellen; Jang, Raymond; Amir, Eitan; Krzyzanowska, Monika K; Leighl, Natasha; Fitch, Margaret; Joshua, Anthony M; Warde, Padraig; Tourangeau, Ann E; Alibhai, Shabbir M H
Although comorbidities, frailty, and functional impairment are common in older adults (OA) with cancer, little is known about how these factors are considered during the treatment decision-making process by OAs, their families, and health care providers. Our aim was to better understand the treatment decision process from all these perspectives. A mixed methods multi-perspective longitudinal study using semi-structured interviews and surveys with 29 OAs aged ≥70 years with advanced prostate, breast, colorectal, or lung cancer, 24 of their family members,13 oncologists, and 15 family physicians was conducted. The sample was stratified on age (70-79 and 80+). All interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis. There was no difference in the treatment decision-making experience based on age. Most OAs felt that they should have the final say in the treatment decision, but strongly valued their oncologists' opinion. "Trust in my oncologist" and "chemotherapy as the last resort to prolong life" were the most important reasons to accept treatment. Families indicated a need to improve communication between them, the patient and the specialist, particularly around goals of treatment. Comorbidity and potential side-effects did not play a major role in the treatment decision-making for patients, families, or oncologists. Family physicians reported no involvement in decisions but desired to be more involved. This first study using multiple perspectives showed neither frailty nor comorbidity played a role in the treatment decision-making process. Efforts to improve communication were identified as an opportunity that may enhance quality of care. In a mixed methods study multiple perspective study with older adults with cancer, their family members, their oncologist and their family physician we explored the treatment decision making process and found that most older adults were satisfied with their decision. Comorbidity, functional status and frailty did not impact the
Buchanan, Leigh; O'Connell, Andrew
Sometime around the middle of the past century, telephone executive Chester Barnard imported the term decision making from public administration into the business world. There it began to replace narrower terms, like "resource allocation" and "policy making," shifting the way managers thought about their role from continuous, Hamlet-like deliberation toward a crisp series of conclusions reached and actions taken. Yet, decision making is, of course, a broad and ancient human pursuit, flowing back to a time when people sought guidance from the stars. From those earliest days, we have strived to invent better tools for the purpose, from the Hindu-Arabic systems for numbering and algebra, to Aristotle's systematic empiricism, to friar Occam's advances in logic, to Francis Bacon's inductive reasoning, to Descartes's application of the scientific method. A growing sophistication with managing risk, along with a nuanced understanding of human behavior and advances in technology that support and mimic cognitive processes, has improved decision making in many situations. Even so, the history of decision-making strategies--captured in this time line and examined in the four accompanying essays on risk, group dynamics, technology, and instinct--has not marched steadily toward perfect rationalism. Twentieth-century theorists showed that the costs of acquiring information lead executives to make do with only good-enough decisions. Worse, people decide against their own economic interests even when they know better. And in the absence of emotion, it's impossible to make any decisions at all. Erroneous framing, bounded awareness, excessive optimism: The debunking of Descartes's rational man threatens to swamp our confidence in our choices. Is it really surprising, then, that even as technology dramatically increases our access to information, Malcolm Gladwell extols the virtues of gut decisions made, literally, in the blink of an eye?
Adida, M; Maurel, M; Kaladjian, A; Fakra, E; Lazerges, P; Da Fonseca, D; Belzeaux, R; Cermolacce, M; Azorin, J-M
Abnormalities involving the prefrontal cortex (PFC) have long been postulated to underpin the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Investigations of PFC integrity have focused mainly on the dorsolateral PFC (DLPFC) and abnormalities in this region have been extensively documented. However, defects in schizophrenia may extend to other prefrontal regions, including the ventromedial PFC (VMPFC), and evidence of VMPFC abnormalities comes from neuropathological, structural and functional studies. Patients with acquired brain injury to the VMPFC display profound disruption of social behaviour and poor judgment in their personal lives. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was developed to assess decision-making in these neurological cases : it presents a series of 100 choices from four card decks that differ in the distribution of rewarding and punishing outcomes. Whilst healthy volunteers gradually develop a preference for the two "safe" decks over the course of the task, patients with VMPFC lesions maintain a preference for the two "risky" decks which are associated with high reinforcement in the short term, but significant long-term debt. Interestingly, damage to VMPFC may cause both poor performance on the IGT and lack of insight concerning the acquired personality modification. Recently, our group reported a trait-related decisionmaking impairment in the three phases of bipolar disorder. In a PET study, VMPFC dysfunction was shown in bipolar manic patients impaired on a decision-making task and an association between decision-making cognition and lack of insight was described in mania. A quantitative association between grey matter volume of VMPFC and memory impairment was previously reported in schizophrenia. Research suggests that lack of insight is a prevalent feature in schizophrenia patients, like auditory hallucinations, paranoid or bizarre delusions, and disorganized speech and thinking. Because schizophrenia is associated with significant social or occupational
Full Text Available Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts’ knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts’ preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n − 1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.
Tang, Ming; Liao, Huchang; Li, Zongmin; Xu, Zeshui
Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts' knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts' preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n-1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.
Ayoko, Godwin A; Morawska, Lidia; Kokot, Serge; Gilbert, Dale
This paper reports the first application of the multicriteria decision making methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA, to indoor and outdoor air quality data. Fourteen residential houses in a suburb of Brisbane, Australia were investigated for 21 air quality-influencing criteria, which included the characteristics of the houses as well as the concentrations of volatile organic compounds, fungi, bacteria, submicrometer, and supermicrometer particles in their indoor and outdoor air samples. Ranking information necessary to select one house in preference to all others and to assess the parameters influencing the differentiation of the houses was found with the aid of PROMETHEE and GAIA. There was no correlation between the rank order of each house and the health complaints of its occupants. Patterns in GAIA plots show that indoor air quality in these houses is strongly dependent on the characteristics of the houses (construction material, distance of the house from a major road, and the presence of an in-built garage). Marked similarities were observed in the patterns obtained when GAIA and factor analysis were applied to the data. This underscores the potential of PROMETHEE and GAIA to provide information that can assist source apportionment and elucidation of effective remedial measures for indoor air pollution.
Full Text Available Introduction: Utilization of dental service is a concept of expressing the extent of interaction between the service provider and the people for whom it is indented. However, one of the major issues in social welfare is the equitable provision of these services to the population. Aim: To determine the perceived barriers affecting access to the dental services in the dental institute. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in the dental institute during the month of February in the year 2014 using decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL method. The study sample included the 364 subjects. The required data were collected using a specially designed and pretested questionnaire. The data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA and MATLAB 7.6.0. The mean, standard deviations were used to describe the data, and inferential statistics included one-way ANOVA and DEMATEL. Results: The five determinants of cost, inconvenience, fear, organization, and patient-dentist relationship were determined as barriers to access dental services. Based on subjects′ responses to the questions, the cost (54.75% agreed or strongly agreed was identified as the most important factor affecting the access to dental health care followed by dentist-patient relationship (48.57%, inconvenience (36.55%, fear (23.70%, and organization (14.02%. The difference was found to be statistically significant (P = 0.0001. When the hierarchy of the affecting and affected factors was calculated, based on the factor analysis by using DEMATEL method, the cost (R−J = 0.16 and organization (R−J = 1.15, were certain affecting determinant which influenced the access to dental services and inconvenience. Conclusion: The major barriers to oral health care utilization among our patients were cost, fear, and organization. Policymakers, administrators, and insurance organizations have a major role. Hence, the policies should be fair and
Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio
This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.
The author proposes a new model for the assessment of decision-making capacity based on the principles of narrative medicine. The narrative method proposed by the author addresses the hidden power realtionships implicit in the current model of capacity assessment. Sample cases are reviewed using the traditional model in comparison with the narrative model. Narrative medicine provides an effective model for the assessment of decision-making capacity. Deficiencies in the traditional model capacity assessment can be effectively addressed using narrative strategies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bayesian evidence ratios give a very attractive way of comparing models, and being able to quote the odds on a particular model seems a very clear motivation for making a choice. Jeffreys' scale of evidence is often used in the interpretation of evidence ratios. A natural question is, how often will you get it right when you choose on the basis of some threshold value of the evidence ratio? The evidence ratio will be different in different realizations of the data, and its utility can be examined in a Neyman-Pearson like way to see what the trade-offs are between statistical power (the chance of "getting it right") versus the false alarm rate, picking the alternative hypothesis when the null is actually true. I will show some simple examples which show that there can be a surprisingly large range for an evidence ratio under different realizations of the data. It seems best not to simply rely on Jeffrey's scale when decisions have to be taken, but also to examine the probability of taking the "wrong" decision if some evidence ratio is taken to be decisive. Interestingly, Turing knew this and applied it during WWII, although (like much else) he did not publish it.
Martins, Vivian B.; Cunha, Tatiana S. da; Simoes Filho, Francisco Fernando Lamego; Lapa, Celso Marcelo F.
The Brazilian Energy Plan (PNE 2030) that guides the Government in formulating its strategy for expanding energy supply by 2030 highlights the need for the Brazilian electrical system have more than 4,000 MW from nuclear sources by 2025. Therefore, the Government presented a proposal to build four more nuclear power plants with capacity of 1,000 MW each, at first, two in the Northeast and two in Southeast. The selection and site assessment are key parts of the installation process of a nuclear plant and may significantly affect the cost, public acceptance and safety of the facility during its entire life cycle. The result of this initial stage, it can even seriously affect program success. Wrong decisions in the process of site selection may also require a financial commitment to higher planned in a later phase of the project, besides causing extensive and expensive downtime. Select the location where these units will be built is not a trivial process, because involves the consideration of multiple criteria and judgments in addition to obtaining, organizing and managing a diverse range of data, both qualitative and quantitative, to assist in decision making and ensure that the site selected is the most appropriate in relation to safety and technical, economic and environmental feasibility. This paper presents an overview of the site selection process and its stages, the criteria involved in each step, the tools to support decision making that can be used and the difficulties in applying a formal process of decision making. Also discussed are ways to make the process more transparent and democratic, increasing public involvement as a way to improve acceptance and reduce opposition from various sectors of society, trying to minimize the expense and time involved in the implementation of undertakings of this kind. (author)
the individ- uals. decision making , group judgments should be preferred to individual judgments if obtaining group judgments costs more. -26- -YI IV... decision making group . IV. A. 3. Aggregation using conjugate distribution. Arvther procedure for combining indivi(jai probability judgments into a group...statisticized group group decision making group judgment subjective probability Delphi method expected utility nominal group 20. ABSTRACT (Continue on
Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.
A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes and cognitive analysis of the decision making problems faced by Navy tactical officers in a shipboard Combat Information Center. Baseline testing in high intensity, peace keeping, littoral scenarios indicated...
Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V
In everyday life, many of the decisions that we make are made on behalf of other people. A growing body of research suggests that we often, but not always, make different decisions on behalf of other people than the other person would choose. This is problematic in the practical case of legally designated surrogate decision makers, who may not meet the substituted judgment standard. Here, we review evidence from studies of surrogate decision making and examine the extent to which surrogate decision making accurately predicts the recipient's wishes, or if it is an incomplete or distorted application of the surrogate's own decision-making processes. We find no existing domain-general model of surrogate decision making. We propose a framework by which surrogate decision making can be assessed and a novel domain-general theory as a unifying explanatory concept for surrogate decisions. © The Author(s) 2015.
Li Hao; Wing Suen
This article reviews recent developments in the theory of committee decision-making. A committee consists of self-interested members who make a public decision by aggregating imperfect information dispersed among them according to a pre-specified decision rule. We focus on costly information acquisition, strategic information aggregation, and rules and processes that enhance the quality of the committee decision. Seeming inefficiencies of the committee decision-making process such as over-cau...
Wolgast, Kelly A
Decision-making is the mainstay of military leadership and command. Due to the changed nature of the current military environment, military commanders can no longer rely solely on the traditional Military Decision-making Process (MDMP...
Harber, Jean R.
The utility of the procedures special educators apply in making decisions about the identification of handicapped individuals has not been thoroughly studied. The paper examines the utility of diagnostic decision making from the perspective of receiver operating curve analysis. (Author)
Full Text Available Disaster recovery sites are an important mechanism in continuous IT system operations. Such mechanisms can sustain IT availability and reduce business losses during natural or human-made disasters. Concerning the cost and risk aspects, the IT disaster-recovery site selection problems are multi-criterion decision making (MCDM problems in nature. For such problems, the decision aspects include the availability of the service, recovery time requirements, service performance, and more. The importance and complexities of IT disaster recovery sites increases with advances in IT and the categories of possible disasters. The modern IT disaster recovery site selection process requires further investigation. However, very few researchers tried to study related issues during past years based on the authors’ extremely limited knowledge. Thus, this paper aims to derive the aspects and criteria for evaluating and selecting a modern IT disaster recovery site. A hybrid MCDM framework consisting of the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL and the Analytic Network Process (ANP will be proposed to construct the complex influence relations between aspects as well as criteria and further, derive weight associated with each aspect and criteria. The criteria with higher weight can be used for evaluating and selecting the most suitable IT disaster recovery sites. In the future, the proposed analytic framework can be used for evaluating and selecting a disaster recovery site for data centers by public institutes or private firms.
Anat Bracha; Donald J. Brown
Affective decision-making is a strategic model of choice under risk and uncertainty where we posit two cognitive processes -- the "rational" and the "emotional" process. Observed choice is the result of equilibrium in this intrapersonal game. As an example, we present applications of affective decision-making in insurance markets, where the risk perceptions of consumers are endogenous. We derive the axiomatic foundation of affective decision making, and show that affective decision making is ...
Andersen, Jens Enevold Thaulov
. These discrepancies are very unfortunate because erroneous conclusions may arise from an otherwise meticulous and dedicated effort of research staff. This may eventually lead to unreliable conclusions thus jeopardizing investigations of environmental monitoring, climate changes, food safety, clinical chemistry......It has been long recognized that results of analytical chemistry are not flawless, owing to the fact that professional laboratories and research laboratories analysing the same type of samples by the same type of instruments are likely to obtain significantly different results. The European......, forensics and other fields of science where analytical chemistry is the key instrument of decision making. In order to elucidate the potential origin of the statistical variations found among laboratories, a major program was undertaken including several analytical technologies where the purpose...
A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)
Fowler, M D
Contemporary nursing ethics education focuses on the use of an analytical model of ethical decision making for both its process and its content. Perhaps this is the case because it bears some resemblance to the nursing process, which is taught in a similar fashion. Thus, a deductivist method of ethical decision making fits within the same general schema of the hypotheticodeductive method of decision making that is taught for nursing diagnosis. Ethics requires that nurses respect persons, inform patients and secure their consent, not inflict harm, preserve the patient's quality of life, prevent harm and remove harmful conditions, do good for patients, and minimize risk to themselves. These are among the norms of obligation that guide ethical analysis and judgment in nursing practice and are the substance of the analytical model of ethical decision making. Nursing's ethics has established high ideals and strong demands for nurses. These are demands which nurses have met and ideals which have often been realized. Whatever the strength of our science, nursing is an inherently moral endeavor and is only as strong as its commitment to its ethical obligations and values. Between the grinding edges of the forces that affect it, nursing must establish its priorities among the aspects of its environment that it attempts to control. Ethics must be chief among those priorities.
Students must make decisions about their lifestyle, future careers, academic pursuits, and classroom and school issues. Learning to make effective decisions for themselves and for society is an important aspect of competence. They can learn decision making through interacting and solving problems with others. A central ingredient for successful…
include factors such as personality, emotion , and level of expertise, which vary from individual to individual. The process of decision - making during... rational choice theories such as utility theory, to more descriptive psychological models that focus more on the process of decision - making ...descriptive nature, they provide a more realistic representation of human decision - making than the rationally based models. However these models do
Bandyopadhyay, Debarati; Pammi, V S Chandrasekhar; Srinivasan, Narayanan
Emotion plays a major role in influencing our everyday cognitive and behavioral functions, including decision making. We introduce different ways in which emotions are characterized in terms of the way they influence or elicited by decision making. This chapter discusses different theories that have been proposed to explain the role of emotions in judgment and decision making. We also discuss incidental emotional influences, both long-duration influences like mood and short-duration influences by emotional context present prior to or during decision making. We present and discuss results from a study with emotional pictures presented prior to decision making and how that influences both decision processes and postdecision experience as a function of uncertainty. We conclude with a summary of the work on emotions and decision making in the context of decision-making theories and our work on incidental emotions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available This paper presents some characteristics and dilemmas of collective decision making. Collective decision making could be presented as the process of successive crystallization of dominant alternatives under the influence of different decision contexts from primary given decision potentials. This process is presented as the many-phased process of the acting of contextually dependent “energizing factors” of the collective decision making on the “attractiveness matrix” of outcomes of collective decisions. The attractiveness matrix determines the attractiveness for each alternative of decision, and the most attractive alternative in the given situation presents the rational decision in the given situation. In the final phase of decision making holds a context which gets a simplified attractiveness matrix. It corresponds to the common decision for one of the alternatives.
This book presents different methods for analyzing the body language (movement, position, use of personal space, silences, pauses and tone, the eyes, pupil dilation or constriction, smiles, body temperature and the like) for better understanding people’s needs and actions, including biometric data gathering and reading. Different studies described in this book indicate that sufficiently much data, information and knowledge can be gained by utilizing biometric technologies. This is the first, wide-ranging book that is devoted completely to the area of intelligent decision support systems, biometrics technologies and their integrations. This book is designated for scholars, practitioners and doctoral and master’s degree students in various areas and those who are interested in the latest biometric and intelligent decision making support problems and means for their resolutions, biometric and intelligent decision making support systems and the theory and practice of their integration and the opportunities fo...
Мария Владимировна Морозова
Full Text Available This article contains structural elements of the methodology for formation of personal information culture in the study of mathematics for the specialty «State and municipal management» (on the subject «Methods of decision-making».
Bastons, Miquel; Armengou, Jaume
There is both individual and collective widespread concern in society about the impact of human activity and the effects of our decisions on the physical and social environment. This concern is included within the idea of sustainability. The meaning of the concept is still ambiguous and its practical effectiveness disputed. Like many other authors, this article uses as a starting point the definition proposed by the World Commission on Environment and Development (Our common future, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1987), considering it to be a proposal for changing the assessment of the effects of decisions, from at least two perspectives: (1) what effects we should consider and (2) how we should assess them. Based on this double perspective, sustainability is explored as a method for decision-making which both expands the assessment of the consequences, and also provides an objective criterion for such assessment. It will be argued that the idea of sustainability, seen from this perspective, brings to decision-making two qualities which had been partially lost: realism and impartiality. In turn, the criteria for realism and impartiality in decision-making can be used to identify the limitations of some partial approaches to sustainability, which suffer from insufficient realism (emotional altruism), insufficient impartiality (tactical altruism) or both phenomena at once (egoism). The article concludes by demonstrating how realism and impartiality provide the basis for a new form of sustainable decision-making (ethical sustainability), which is dependent on the development of two moral virtues, prudence and benevolence, and which brings practical effectiveness and ethical sense to the concept of sustainability.
Effective decision making under time constraints is often overlooked in medical decision making. The recognition primed decision making (RPDM) model was developed by Gary Klein based on previous recognized situations to develop a satisfactory solution to the current problem. Bayes Theorem is the most popular decision making model in medicine but is limited by the need for adequate time to consider all probabilities. Unlike other decision making models, there is a potential neurobiological basis for RPDM. This model has significant implication for health informatics and medical education.
Seidl, C.; Traub, S.
This paper investigates the existence of an editing phase and studies the com- pliance of subjects' behaviour with the most popular multiattribute decision rules. We observed that our data comply well with the existence of an editing phase, at least if we allow for a natural error rate of some 25%.
Flaming, Susan C.
The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into
Full Text Available Transportation is the major contributor of ever-increasing CO2 and Greenhouse Gas emissions in cities. The ever-increasing hazardous emissions of transportation and energy consumption have persuaded transportation and urban planners to motivate people to non-motorized mode of travel, especially walking. Currently, there are several urban walkability assessment models; however, coping with a limited range of walkability assessment variables make these models not fully able to promote inclusive walkable urban neighborhoods. In this regard, this study develops the path walkability assessment (PWA index model which evaluates and analyzes path walkability in association with the pedestrian’s decision-tree-making (DTM. The model converts the pedestrian’s DTM qualitative data to quantifiable values. This model involves ninety-two (92 physical and environmental walkability assessment variables clustered into three layers of DTM (Layer 1: features; Layer 2: Criteria; and Layer 3: Sub-Criteria, and scoped to shopping and retail type of walking. The PWA model as a global decision support tool can be applied in any neighborhood in the world, and this study implements it at Taman Universiti neighborhood in Skudai, Malaysia. The PWA model has established the walkability score index which determines the grading rate of walkability accomplishment for each walkability variable of the under-survey neighborhood. Using the PWA grading index enables urban designers to manage properly the financial resource allocation for inspiring walkability in the targeted neighborhood.
Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) Feedback In Decision- Making The goal of this project is to investigate whether Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) can provide useful...feedback when training rapid decision-making. More specifically, EEG will allow us to provide online feedback about the neural decision processes...Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) Feedback In Decision-Making Report Title The goal of this project is to investigate whether Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) can provide useful
Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found that cognitive styles have a positive impact on decision-making styles. In spite of the abundant research on factors that affect decision-making styles, few researches have tested the relationship between cognitive styles and decision-making styles. This study examines the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles in Iran. This study, like most research paper studies, cannot easily be generalized. Furthermore, the results of this study could be affected by economic conditions.
Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.
Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.
Niehaus, F.; Lederman, L.
The question on ''How safe is safe enough'' is being responded presently by deterministic criteria. Probabilistic criteria in support to more rational and less emotional decisions in regulatory and licensing issues, rationalization of resource allocation and research prioritization, among others, have a potential which is only marginally being explored. This paper discussed PSA limitations and proposes three areas for the use of PSA in decision making, namely: preventing accidents, mitigating accidents, and defining regulatory requirements. Current activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency in these areas are mentioned. PSA studies depict clearly the uncertainties and this is viewed as a positive aspect, which is unique to the use of probabilistic methods. (orig.)
Niehaus, F; Lederman, L
The question on ''How safe is safe enough'' is being responded presently by deterministic criteria. Probabilistic criteria in support to more rational and less emotional decisions in regulatory and licensing issues, rationalization of resource allocation and research prioritization, among others, have a potential which is only marginally being explored. This paper discussed PSA limitations and proposes three areas for the use of PSA in decision making, namely: preventing accidents, mitigating accidents, and defining regulatory requirements. Current activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency in these areas are mentioned. PSA studies depict clearly the uncertainties and this is viewed as a positive aspect, which is unique to the use of probabilistic methods.
Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.
Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…
Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to assess the effect of different normalization norms within multi-criteria decisionmaking (MADM models. Three well accepted MCDM tools, namely, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE, grey relation analysis (GRA and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS methods are applied for solving a flexible manufacturing system (FMS selection problem in a discrete manufacturing environment. Finally, by the introduction of different normalization norms to the decision algorithms, its effct on the FMS selection problem using these MCDM models are also studied.
Dobrajska, Magdalena; Billinger, Stephan; Becker, Markus
We report findings from an analysis of 234 firm boundary decisions that a manufacturing firm has made during a 10 year period. Extensive interviews with all major decision makers located both at the headquarters and subsidiaries allow us to examine (a) who was involved in each boundary decision...
Tučník, Petr; Bureš, Vladimír
Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) can be formally implemented by various methods. This study compares suitability of four selected MCDM methods, namely WPM, TOPSIS, VIKOR, and PROMETHEE, for future applications in agent-based computational economic (ACE) models of larger scale (i.e., over 10 000 agents in one geographical region). These four MCDM methods were selected according to their appropriateness for computational processing in ACE applications. Tests of the selected methods were conducted on four hardware configurations. For each method, 100 tests were performed, which represented one testing iteration. With four testing iterations conducted on each hardware setting and separated testing of all configurations with the-server parameter de/activated, altogether, 12800 data points were collected and consequently analyzed. An illustrational decision-making scenario was used which allows the mutual comparison of all of the selected decision making methods. Our test results suggest that although all methods are convenient and can be used in practice, the VIKOR method accomplished the tests with the best results and thus can be recommended as the most suitable for simulations of large-scale agent-based models.
van der Linden, Willem J.
The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be
Patrick, Nicholas J. M.
Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).
Decision making in midwifery is a complex process that shapes and underpins clinical practice and determines, to a large extent, the quality of care. Effective decision making and professional accountability are central to clinical governance, and being able.to justify all decisions is a professional and legal requirement. At the same time, there is an emphasis in midwifery on shared decision making, and keeping women at the centre of their care, and research reveals that feelings of choice, control and autonomy are central to a positive birth experience. However the extent to which decisions are really shared and care truly woman-centred is debatable and affected by environment and culture. Using a case study of a decision made in clinical practice around amniotomy, this article explores the role of the intuitive thinking system in midwifery decision making, and highlights the importance of involving women in the decision making process.
Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...
Full Text Available In a highly global market, organizations that have the ability to analyze and rapidly respond to the constantly changing marketplace will have the greatest chance of remaining competitive and profitable. Group decision making is the process of arriving at a judgment based upon the feedback of multiple individuals. Due to the importance of the group decision making process, decision making models can be used to establish a systematic means of developing effective group decision making. Once a decision has been made, the members of the group should be willing to accept it and support its implementations.
Kortas, Linda; And Others
The Career Decision Scale, Assessment of Career Decision Making, and Cognitive Differentiation Grid were administered to 598 community college students. Results indicated a relationship between decision-making styles and vocational construct structure. Poorly developed vocational schemas predispose individuals toward dependent and intuitive…
West, Dana R.
Students and their parents/guardians rely on school counselors to provide counseling services based on ethically sound principles. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence about what influences a school counselor's ethical decision making. Ethical decision making for this study was defined as the degree to which decisions pertaining to…
Hagmayer, Y.; Witteman, C.L.M.
Normative causal decision theories argue that people should use their causal knowledge in decision making. Based on these ideas, we argue that causal knowledge and reasoning may support and thereby potentially improve decision making based on expected outcomes, narratives, and even cues. We will
Delegating decision making to those closest to implementation can result in better decisions, more support for improvement initiatives, and increased student performance. Shared decision making depends on capable school leadership, a professional community, instructional guidance mechanisms, knowledge and skills, information sharing, power, and…
Full Text Available of decision support technology. Much variation was found in people’s personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information...
In the siting process for a low-level waste disposal facility, there is a place for conflict, negotiation, arbitration, and public involvement. Contrary to popular belief, conflict is good. It signals pluralism and demonstrates a distribution of power. Conflict should not be eliminated because it is a dynamic method of decision-making. Conflict causes negotiation, which leads to compromise. Conflict is the product of the legitimacy of dissent
Lipstein, Ellen A; Brinkman, William B; Britto, Maria T
With the increasing complexity of decisions in pediatric medicine, there is a growing need to understand the pediatric decision-making process. To conduct a narrative review of the current research on parent decision making about pediatric treatments and identify areas in need of further investigation. Articles presenting original research on parent decision making were identified from MEDLINE (1966-6/2011), using the terms "decision making," "parent," and "child." We included papers focused on treatment decisions but excluded those focused on information disclosure to children, vaccination, and research participation decisions. We found 55 papers describing 52 distinct studies, the majority being descriptive, qualitative studies of the decision-making process, with very limited assessment of decision outcomes. Although parents' preferences for degree of participation in pediatric decision making vary, most are interested in sharing the decision with the provider. In addition to the provider, parents are influenced in their decision making by changes in their child's health status, other community members, prior knowledge, and personal factors, such as emotions and faith. Parents struggle to balance these influences as well as to know when to include their child in decision making. Current research demonstrates a diversity of influences on parent decision making and parent decision preferences; however, little is known about decision outcomes or interventions to improve outcomes. Further investigation, using prospective methods, is needed in order to understand how to support parents through the difficult treatment decisions.
Thompson, Rachel; Manski, Ruth; Donnelly, Kyla Z; Stevens, Gabrielle; Agusti, Daniela; Banach, Michelle; Boardman, Maureen B; Brady, Pearl; Colón Bradt, Christina; Foster, Tina; Johnson, Deborah J; Li, Zhongze; Norsigian, Judy; Nothnagle, Melissa; Olson, Ardis L; Shepherd, Heather L; Stern, Lisa F; Tosteson, Tor D; Trevena, Lyndal; Upadhya, Krishna K; Elwyn, Glyn
Despite the observed and theoretical advantages of shared decision-making in a range of clinical contexts, including contraceptive care, there remains a paucity of evidence on how to facilitate its adoption. This paper describes the protocol for a study to assess the comparative effectiveness of patient-targeted and provider-targeted interventions for facilitating shared decision-making about contraceptive methods. We will conduct a 2×2 factorial cluster randomised controlled trial with four arms: (1) video+prompt card, (2) decision aids+training, (3) video+prompt card and decision aids+training and (4) usual care. The clusters will be clinics in USA that deliver contraceptive care. The participants will be people who have completed a healthcare visit at a participating clinic, were assigned female sex at birth, are aged 15-49 years, are able to read and write English or Spanish and have not previously participated in the study. The primary outcome will be shared decision-making about contraceptive methods. Secondary outcomes will be the occurrence of a conversation about contraception in the healthcare visit, satisfaction with the conversation about contraception, intended contraceptive method(s), intention to use a highly effective method, values concordance of the intended method(s), decision regret, contraceptive method(s) used, use of a highly effective method, use of the intended method(s), adherence, satisfaction with the method(s) used, unintended pregnancy and unwelcome pregnancy. We will collect study data via longitudinal patient surveys administered immediately after the healthcare visit, four weeks later and six months later. We will disseminate results via presentations at scientific and professional conferences, papers published in peer-reviewed, open-access journals and scientific and lay reports. We will also make an anonymised copy of the final participant-level dataset available to others for research purposes. Clinical
Hansen, Claus Thorp; Andreasen, Mogens Myrup
In this paper we present the decision score, which is a model of decision-making seen in the engineering designer's perspective of the design process dynamics, where a decision has multiple objects and where it is based on earlier decisions, prediction of consequences and design process progressi...
Roudsari, Robab Latifnejad; Khadivzadeh, Talat; Bahrami, Masoud
Background: More than 30% of pregnancies in Iran are unintended and most of them happen among the women who use various contraceptive methods. Results of Integrated Monitoring and Evaluation System (IMES) showed that the rate of innovative contraceptive use in Mashhad has been 41.5%-57% in different urban areas. This study was conducted to explore the process of making decision toward using family planning methods in women of reproductive age in urban society of Mashhad, Iran. Materials and M...
Keenan, Heather T; Campbell, Kristine A; Page, Kent; Cook, Lawrence J; Bardsley, Tyler; Olson, Lenora M
The medical literature reports differential decision-making for children with suspected physical abuse based on race and socioeconomic status. Differential evaluation may be related to differences of risk indicators in these populations or differences in physicians' perceptions of abuse risk. Our objective was to understand the contribution of the child's social ecology to child abuse pediatricians' perception of abuse risk and to test whether risk perception influences diagnostic decision-making. Thirty-two child abuse pediatrician participants prospectively contributed 746 consultations from for children referred for physical abuse evaluation (2009-2013). Participants entered consultations to a web-based interface. Participants noted their perception of child race, family SES, abuse diagnosis. Participants rated their perception of social risk for abuse and diagnostic certainty on a 1-100 scale. Consultations (n = 730) meeting inclusion criteria were qualitatively analyzed for social risk indicators, social and non-social cues. Using a linear mixed-effects model, we examined the associations of social risk indicators with participant social risk perception. We reversed social risk indicators in 102 cases whilst leaving all injury mechanism and medical information unchanged. Participants reviewed these reversed cases and recorded their social risk perception, diagnosis and diagnostic certainty. After adjustment for physician characteristics and social risk indicators, social risk perception was highest in the poorest non-minority families (24.9 points, 95%CI: 19.2, 30.6) and minority families (17.9 points, 95%CI, 12.8, 23.0). Diagnostic certainty and perceived social risk were associated: certainty increased as social risk perception increased (Spearman correlation 0.21, p < 0.001) in probable abuse cases; certainty decreased as risk perception increased (Spearman correlation (-)0.19, p = 0.003) in probable not abuse cases. Diagnostic decisions changed
Volk, Michael L; Biggins, Scott W; Huang, Mary Ann; Argo, Curtis K; Fontana, Robert J; Anspach, Renee R
Background In order to receive a liver transplant, patients must first be placed on the waiting list – a decision made in most transplant centers by a multidisciplinary committee. The function of these committees has never been studied. Objectives To describe decision making in liver transplant committees and identify opportunities for process improvement. Design Observational multi-center Setting We observed 63 meetings and interviewed 50 committee members at 4 liver transplant centers. Study Subjects Transplant committee members. Measurements Recorded transcripts and field notes were analyzed using standard qualitative sociological methods. Results While the structure of meetings varied by center, the process was uniform and involved reviewing possible reasons for patient exclusion using primarily inductive reasoning. Stated justifications for excluding patients were a) too well, b) non-hepatic comorbidities or advanced age, c) too sick in the setting of advanced liver disease, d) substance abuse, or e) other psychosocial barriers. Dominant themes identified included members’ angst over deciding who lives and dies, a high correlation between psychosocial barriers to transplant and patients’ socioeconomic status, and the influence of external forces on decision making. Consistently identified barriers to effective group decision making were: 1) unwritten center policies, and 2) confusion regarding advocacy versus stewardship roles. Limitations The use of qualitative methods provides broad understanding but limits specific inferences. These four centers may not be reflective of every transplant center nationwide. Conclusion The difficult decisions made by these committees are reasonably consistent and always well-intentioned, but might be improved by more explicit written policies and clarifying roles. This process may help inform resource allocation in other areas of medicine. Primary funding source The Greenwall Foundation. PMID:22007044
Chahine, Saad; Cristancho, Sayra; Padgett, Jessica; Lingard, Lorelei
In the competency-based medical education (CBME) approach, clinical competency committees are responsible for making decisions about trainees? competence. However, we currently lack a?theoretical model for group decision-making to inform this emerging assessment phenomenon. This paper proposes an organizing framework to study and guide the decision-making processes of clinical competency committees. This is an explanatory, non-exhaustive review, tailored to identify relevant theoretical and e...
Nesbitt, P; Kennedy, Q; Alt, JK; Fricker, RD; Whitaker, L; Yang, J; Appleget, JA; Huston, J; Patton, S
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This research aims to gain insight into optimal wargaming decision-making mechanisms using neurophysiological measures by investigating whether brain activation and visual scan patterns predict attention, perception, and/or decision-making errors through human-in-the-loop wargaming simulation experiments. We investigate whether brain activity and visual scan patterns can explain optimal wargaming decision making and its devel...
General problems associated with social impacts of radiology and decision making is discussed, as the main topics of the meeting. The problem of population is discussed living in areas contaminates with radioactive substances resulting from a major accident or from pest practices. This situation needs decision making process for initiating actions like relocation, resettlement or large-scale decontamination. The roles of various participants in this decision making process and in the communication with the public are considered. (R.P.)
Abstract Decision making is one of the most important and frequent tasks among managers and employees in an organization. Knowledge about more stable cognitive characteristics underlying decision making styles has been requested. This study aimed to examine the relationship between rational decision making style, cognitive style, self efficacy and locus of control. Possible interaction effects in relation to gender were also analyzed. 186 employees at the Ministry of Defence were surveyed...
Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...
Miller, T. N.; Brumbaugh, E. J.; Barker, M.; Ly, V.; Schick, R.; Rogers, L.
The NASA DEVELOP National Program conducts over eighty Earth science projects every year. Each project applies NASA Earth observations to impact decision-making related to a local or regional community concern. Small, interdisciplinary teams create a methodology to address the specific issue, and then pass on the results to partner organizations, as well as providing them with instruction to continue using remote sensing for future decisions. Many different methods are used by individual teams, and the program as a whole, to communicate results and research accomplishments to decision-makers, stakeholders, alumni, and the general public. These methods vary in scope from formal publications to more informal venues, such as social media. This presentation will highlight the communication techniques used by the DEVELOP program. Audiences, strategies, and outlets will be discussed, including a newsletter, microjournal, video contest, and several others.
Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan; Spector, J Michael
The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV:...
Bossaerts, Peter; Murawski, Carsten
The rationality principle postulates that decision-makers always choose the best action available to them. It underlies most modern theories of decision-making. The principle does not take into account the difficulty of finding the best option. Here, we propose that computational complexity theory (CCT) provides a framework for defining and quantifying the difficulty of decisions. We review evidence showing that human decision-making is affected by computational complexity. Building on this evidence, we argue that most models of decision-making, and metacognition, are intractable from a computational perspective. To be plausible, future theories of decision-making will need to take into account both the resources required for implementing the computations implied by the theory, and the resource constraints imposed on the decision-maker by biology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery
The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.
Kárný, Miroslav; Wolpert, David
This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selﬁsh decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: • task allocation to maximize “the wisdom of the crowd”; • design of a society of “edutainment” robots who account for one anothers’ emotional states; • recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; • coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; • efﬁciently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized...
Risk management has received increasing attention recently as methods of quantifying risk have been evolving. This is considered a legitimate tendency in the context of the entirety of risk evaluation which connotes both risk quantification and decisions making thereon. A risk-free society does not appear possible; neither could one have zero competing risks or cost versus benefit resulting out of a risk-abatement effort. What further complicates the risk-decision problem is that there exists more than a single decision maker, who claim their own interests associated with risk decision. Furthermore, their risk perceptions are not at all same that the threshold risk levels for a particular actions are varying. In this dissertation, a brief survey on existing action levels for various sort of risk situations including carcinogens, toxic chemicals, etc., is reported on, with emphasis on nuclear risk situation. A decision theoretic approach is then adopted in both individual and group-level risk management. For the purpose of exemplification, multiplicative utility theory is applied for nuclear power risk; attributes derived for this specific purpose are discussed
Reduction in prices now makes it possible for almost any institution to use computer graphics for administrative decision making and research. Current and potential uses of computer graphics in these two areas are discussed. (JN)
Dutilh, Gilles; Rieskamp, Jörg
Perceptual and preferential decision making have been studied largely in isolation. Perceptual decisions are considered to be at a non-deliberative cognitive level and have an outside criterion that defines the quality of decisions. Preferential decisions are considered to be at a higher cognitive level and the quality of decisions depend on the decision maker's subjective goals. Besides these crucial differences, both types of decisions also have in common that uncertain information about the choice situation has to be processed before a decision can be made. The present work aims to acknowledge the commonalities of both types of decision making to lay bare the crucial differences. For this aim we examine perceptual and preferential decisions with a novel choice paradigm that uses the identical stimulus material for both types of decisions. This paradigm allows us to model the decisions and response times of both types of decisions with the same sequential sampling model, the drift diffusion model. The results illustrate that the different incentive structure in both types of tasks changes people's behavior so that they process information more efficiently and respond more cautiously in the perceptual as compared to the preferential task. These findings set out a perspective for further integration of perceptual and preferential decision making in a single ramework.
During the last thirty years different methods have been proposed in order to manage and resolve ethical quandaries, specially in the clinical setting. Some of these methodologies are based on the principles of Decision-making theory. Others looked to other philosophical traditions, like Principlism, Hermeneutics, Narrativism, Casuistry, Pragmatism, etc. This paper defends the view that deliberation is the cornerstone of any adequate methodology. This is due to the fact that moral decisions must take into account not only principles and ideas, but also emotions, values and beliefs. Deliberation is the process in which everyone concerned by the decision is considered a valid moral agent, obliged to give reasons for their own points of view, and to listen to the reasons of others. The goal of this process is not the reaching of a consensus but the enrichment of one's own point of view with that of the others, increasing in this way the maturity of one's own decision, in order to make it more wise or prudent. In many cases the members of a group of deliberation will differ in the final solution of the case, but the confrontation of their reasons will modify the perception of the problem of everyone. This is the profit of the process. Our moral decisions cannot be completely rational, due to the fact that they are influenced by feelings, values, beliefs, etc., but they must be reasonable, that is, wise and prudent. Deliberation is the main procedure to reach this goal. It obliges us to take others into account, respecting their different beliefs and values and prompting them to give reasons for their own points of view. This method has been traditional in Western clinical medicine all over its history, and it should be also the main procedure for clinical ethics.
Roijers, D.M.; Vamplew, P.; Whiteson, S.; Dazeley, R.
Sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives arise naturally in practice and pose unique challenges for research in decision-theoretic planning and learning, which has largely focused on single-objective settings. This article surveys algorithms designed for sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives. Though there is a growing body of literature on this subject, little of it makes explicit under what circumstances special methods are needed to solve multi-obj...
An, Tingyu; Watanabe, tsunami
Nowadays, with the rapid development of information society, decision-making problems become more and more complicated especially in large scale systems such as infrastructure, environmental and industrial fields, which are usually accompanied by psychological competition between involved parties in a complicated, uncertain and dynamic situation. From a holistic perspective of system, a specific decision-making method which is described as game-chain-based decision making has been proposed in...
the pitfalls associated with current wargaming methods such as assuming a western view of rational values in decision - making regardless of the cultures...Utilization theory slightly expands the rational decision making model as it states that “actors try to maximize their expected utility by weighing the...items to categorize the decision - making behavior of political leaders which tend to demonstrate either a rational or cognitive leaning. Leaders
Os, Herman W.A. van, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [University of Groningen, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Geo-Energy, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen (Netherlands); Herber, Rien, E-mail: email@example.com [University of Groningen, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Geo-Energy, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen (Netherlands); Scholtens, Bert, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen (Netherlands)
We investigate how the decision support system ‘Modular Evaluation Method Subsurface Activities’ (MEMSA) can help facilitate an informed decision-making process for permit applications of subsurface activities. To this end, we analyze the extent the MEMSA approach allows for a dialogue between stakeholders in a transparent manner. We use the exploration permit for the underground gas storage facility at the Pieterburen salt dome (Netherlands) as a case study. The results suggest that the MEMSA approach is flexible enough to adjust to changing conditions. Furthermore, MEMSA provides a novel way for identifying structural problems and possible solutions in permit decision-making processes for subsurface activities, on the basis of the sensitivity analysis of intermediate rankings. We suggest that the planned size of an activity should already be specified in the exploration phase, because this would allow for a more efficient use of the subsurface as a whole. We conclude that the host community should be involved to a greater extent and in an early phase of the permit decision-making process, for example, already during the initial analysis of the project area of a subsurface activity. We suggest that strategic national policy goals are to be re-evaluated on a regular basis, in the form of a strategic vision for the subsurface, to account for timing discrepancies between the realization of activities and policy deadlines, because this discrepancy can have a large impact on the necessity and therefore acceptance of a subsurface activity.
Os, Herman W.A. van; Herber, Rien; Scholtens, Bert
We investigate how the decision support system ‘Modular Evaluation Method Subsurface Activities’ (MEMSA) can help facilitate an informed decision-making process for permit applications of subsurface activities. To this end, we analyze the extent the MEMSA approach allows for a dialogue between stakeholders in a transparent manner. We use the exploration permit for the underground gas storage facility at the Pieterburen salt dome (Netherlands) as a case study. The results suggest that the MEMSA approach is flexible enough to adjust to changing conditions. Furthermore, MEMSA provides a novel way for identifying structural problems and possible solutions in permit decision-making processes for subsurface activities, on the basis of the sensitivity analysis of intermediate rankings. We suggest that the planned size of an activity should already be specified in the exploration phase, because this would allow for a more efficient use of the subsurface as a whole. We conclude that the host community should be involved to a greater extent and in an early phase of the permit decision-making process, for example, already during the initial analysis of the project area of a subsurface activity. We suggest that strategic national policy goals are to be re-evaluated on a regular basis, in the form of a strategic vision for the subsurface, to account for timing discrepancies between the realization of activities and policy deadlines, because this discrepancy can have a large impact on the necessity and therefore acceptance of a subsurface activity.
Full Text Available In order to maintain and enhance the operational reliability of a robotic manipulator deployed in space, an operational reliability system control method is presented in this paper. First, a method to divide factors affecting the operational reliability is proposed, which divides the operational reliability factors into task-related factors and cost-related factors. Then the models describing the relationships between the two kinds of factors and control variables are established. Based on this, a multivariable and multiconstraint optimization model is constructed. Second, a hierarchical system control model which incorporates the operational reliability factors is constructed. The control process of the space manipulator is divided into three layers: task planning, path planning, and motion control. Operational reliability related performance parameters are measured and used as the system’s feedback. Taking the factors affecting the operational reliability into consideration, the system can autonomously decide which control layer of the system should be optimized and how to optimize it using a control level adjustment decision module. The operational reliability factors affect these three control levels in the form of control variable constraints. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve a greater probability of meeting the task accuracy requirements, while extending the expected lifetime of the space manipulator.
Full Text Available It is not known whether patients with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME differ from healthy people in decision making under risk, i.e., when the decision-making context offers explicit information about options, probabilities, and consequences already from the beginning. In this study, we adopted the Game of Dice Task-Double to investigate decision making under risk in a group of 36 patients with JME (mean age 25.25/SD 5.29 years and a group of 38 healthy controls (mean age 26.03/SD 4.84 years. Participants also underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment focused on frontal executive functions. Significant group differences were found in tests of psychomotor speed and divided attention, with the patients scoring lower than the controls. Importantly, patients made risky decisions more frequently than controls. In the patient group, poor decision making was associated with poor executive control, poor response inhibition, and a short interval since the last seizure episode. Executive control and response inhibition could predict 42% of variance in the frequency of risky decisions. This study indicates that patients with JME with poorer executive functions are more likely to make risky decisions than healthy controls. Decision making under risk is of major importance in every-day life, especially with regard to treatment decisions and adherence to long-term medical therapy. Since even a single disadvantageous decision may have long-lasting consequences, this finding is of high relevance.
Unterberger, Iris; Zamarian, Laura; Prieschl, Manuela; Bergmann, Melanie; Walser, Gerald; Luef, Gerhard; Javor, Andrija; Ransmayr, Gerhard; Delazer, Margarete
It is not known whether patients with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME) differ from healthy people in decision making under risk, i.e., when the decision-making context offers explicit information about options, probabilities, and consequences already from the beginning. In this study, we adopted the Game of Dice Task-Double to investigate decision making under risk in a group of 36 patients with JME (mean age 25.25/SD 5.29 years) and a group of 38 healthy controls (mean age 26.03/SD 4.84 years). Participants also underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment focused on frontal executive functions. Significant group differences were found in tests of psychomotor speed and divided attention, with the patients scoring lower than the controls. Importantly, patients made risky decisions more frequently than controls. In the patient group, poor decision making was associated with poor executive control, poor response inhibition, and a short interval since the last seizure episode. Executive control and response inhibition could predict 42% of variance in the frequency of risky decisions. This study indicates that patients with JME with poorer executive functions are more likely to make risky decisions than healthy controls. Decision making under risk is of major importance in every-day life, especially with regard to treatment decisions and adherence to long-term medical therapy. Since even a single disadvantageous decision may have long-lasting consequences, this finding is of high relevance.
Daniel L. Schmoldt; David L. Peterson
Public land managers must treat multiple values coincidentally in time and space, which requires the participation of multiple resource specialists and consideration of diverse clientele interests in the decision process. This implies decision making that includes multiple participants, both internally and externally. Decades of social science research on decision...
Five types of decision-uncertainty are distinguished: uncertainty of consequences, of values, of demarcation, of reliance, and of co-ordination. Strategies are proposed for each type of uncertainty. The general conclusion is that it is meaningful for decision theory to treat cases with greater uncertainty than the textbook case of 'decision-making under uncertainty'. (au)
Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Pachur, Thorsten; Giannakopoulos, Nikolaos Nikitas
Shared decision-making involves the participation of patient and dental practitioner. Well-informed decision-making requires that both parties understand important concepts that may influence the decision. This fourth article in a series of 4 aims to discuss the importance of patients' values when a clinical decision is made. We report on how to incorporate important concepts for well-informed, shared decision-making. Here, we present patient values as an important issue, in addition to previously established topics such as the risk of bias of a study, cost-effectiveness of treatment approaches, and a comparison of therapeutic benefit with potential side effects. We provide 2 clinical examples and suggestions for a decision tree, based on the available evidence. The information reported in this article may improve the relationship between patient and dental practitioner, resulting in more well-informed clinical decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)
Israelsen, Poul; Jørgensen, Brian
which distorts the economic effects of modularization at the level of the individual product. This has the implication that decisions on modularization can only be made by top management if decision authority and relevant information are to be aligned. To overcome this problem, we suggest a solution...... that aligns the descriptions of the economic consequences of modularization at the project and portfolio level which makes it possible to decentralize decision making while making sure that local goals are congruent with the global ones in order to avoid suboptimal behaviour. Keywords: Modularization......; Accounting; Cost allocation; Decision rule; Decentralization...
Garnett, Victoria; Smith, Joanna; Ormandy, Paula
Aim To explore and describe child-parent shared decision making for the management of childhood asthma. Methods A qualitative, descriptive, interview-based study was undertaken. Eight children and nine parents participated. The framework approach underpinned data analysis. Findings A dynamic model of the way children and parents transfer, shift and share asthma management decisions was uncovered. Asthma management decisions between children and parents were non-linear, with responsibility transferring from parent to child under different conditions. Children made a range of decisions about their asthma, often sharing decisions with their parents. However, during acute illness episodes, children often relied on parents to make decisions about their asthma. Conclusion Neither the child nor parent has complete autonomy over asthma management decisions. Decision making is a dynamic, shifting and shared process, dependent on contextual factors and child and parent decision preferences.
Long, Arwen B.; Kuhn, Cynthia M.; Platt, Michael L.
Some people love taking risks, while others avoid gambles at all costs. The neural mechanisms underlying individual variation in preference for risky or certain outcomes, however, remain poorly understood. Although behavioral pathologies associated with compulsive gambling, addiction and other psychiatric disorders implicate deficient serotonin signaling in pathological decision making, there is little experimental evidence demonstrating a link between serotonin and risky decision making, in ...
Feng, Jun; Gong, Jingjing; Huang, Yonghua; Wei, Yazhou; Zhang, Weiwei; Zhang, Yan
Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts, especially in medical decision making. Unfortunately, research is still inconsistent as to how so many variables impact framing effects in medical decision making. Additionally, much attention should be paid to the framing effect not only in hypothetical scenarios but also in clinical experience.
Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Feng, Jun; Huang, Yonghua; Wei, Yazhou; Zhang, Weiwei
Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts, especially in medical decision making. Unfortunately, research is still inconsistent as to how so many variables impact framing effects in medical decision making. Additionally, much attention should be paid to the framing effect not only in hypothetical scenarios but also in clinical experience.
Coenen, Frans; Huitema, Dave; Woltjer, Johan
This chapter concerns the impact of public involvement in public decision-making processes as related to household consumption patterns, and the impact on consumer behaviour of active participation.1 The call for participatory decision-making is common in the field of sustainable consumption (Murphy
Yacoubian, Hagop A.
Scientifically literate citizens must be able to engage in making decisions on science-based social issues. In this paper, I start by showing examples of science curricula and policy documents that capitalise the importance of engaging future citizens in decision-making processes whether at the personal or at the societal levels. I elucidate the…
Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Feng, Jun; Huang, Yonghua; Wei, Yazhou; Zhang, Weiwei
Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts, especially in medical decision making. Unfortunately, research is still inconsistent as to how so many variables impact framing effects in medical decision making. Additionally, much attention should be paid to the framing effect not only in hypothetical scenarios but also in clinical experience. PMID:27034630
Fuzzy sets and interval analysis tools to make computations and solve optimisation problems are presented. Fuzzy and interval extensions of Decision Theory criteria for decision-making under parametric uncertainty of prior information (probabilities, payoffs) are developed. An interval probability approach to the mean-value criterion is proposed. (author)
Rose, Stephen A.
Computer software that will help intermediate and secondary social studies students learn to make rational decisions about personal and societal concerns are described. The courseware places students in the roles of business managers who make decisions about operating their firms. (RM)
Backus, G.B.C.; Eidman, V.R.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.
Relevant portions of the risk literature are reviewed, relating them to observed behaviour in farm decision-making. Relevant topics for applied agricultural risk research are proposed. The concept of decision making under risk and uncertainty is discussed by reviewing the theory of Subjective
Ismariah Ahmad; Rohana Abd Rahman; Roda Jean-Marc; Lim Hin Fui; Mohd Parid Mamat
Sound decision-making requires quality information. Poor information does not help in decision making. Among the sources of low quality information, an important cause is inadequate and inappropriate sampling. In this paper we illustrate the case of information collected on timber prices.
Brazer, S. David; Rich, William; Ross, Susan A.
Purpose: The dual purpose of this paper is to determine how superintendents in US school districts work with stakeholders in the decision-making process and to learn how different choices superintendents make affect decision outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This multiple case study of three school districts employs qualitative methodology to…
The problem. Educational leaders face challenges in the 21st century, make numerous decisions daily, and have the choice to make decisions based on ethics. Educational leaders may follow a corporate model regarding expenses and revenues while ignoring the best interests of children and their academic achievement. The alternative to the corporate…
This document describes some parameters and fundamental criteria which should be taken into account by the safety authorities in the decision making. Added to these principles, internal procedures, devoted to an integrated framework of decision making, should be implemented. This presentation is based on the study realized by an experts Group of the Nuclear Energy Agency. (A.L.B.)
Simon, Herbert A.
Describes the current state of knowledge about human decision-making and problem-solving processes, explaining recent developments and their implications for management and management training. Rational goal-setting is the key to effective decision making and accomplishment. Bounded rationality is a realistic orientation, because the world is too…
Reynolds, Charles H.
Sound ethical decisions depend on clear problem definition, careful review of alternatives, consideration of consequences, and thoughtful application of relevant principles of responsibility. Often they also require a willingness to receive corrective insight and to check judgments with moral intuitions. Higher education has a special…
Mojtaba Soltannezhad Dizaji
Full Text Available In an environment where markets go through a volatile process, and rapid fundamental changes occur due to technological advances, it is important to ensure and maintain a good performance measurement. Organizations, in their performance evaluation, should consider different types of financial and non-financial indicators. In systems like direct sales stores in which decision units have multiple inputs and outputs, all criteria influencing on performance must be combined and examined in a system, simultaneously. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of different products through direct sales of a firm named Shirin Asal with a combination of Balanced Scorecard, fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS so that the weaknesses of subjectivity and selective consideration of evaluators in evaluating the performance indicators are reduced and evaluation integration is provided by considering the contribution of each indicator and each indicator group of balanced scorecard. The research method of this case study is applied. The data collection method is a questionnaire from the previous studies, the use of experts' opinions and the study of documents in the organization. MATLAB and SPSS were used to analyze the data. During this study, the customer and financial perspectives are of the utmost importance to assess the company branches. Among the sub-criteria, the rate of new customer acquisition in the customer dimension and the net income to sales ratio in financial dimension are of the utmost importance.
professionals will be becoming more adept at scripting, modeling, graphical and statistical displays. Decision makers may, similarly, be less likely to shy...elsewhere in this proceedings (Sanchez 2014) simulation can be the core for model-driven big data and inferential decision-making. We need to stake... descriptive , not prescriptive.” In our field, we deal with prospective decision making. We have an advantage in this area: since our output data are
Decision making is traditionally viewed as a rational process where reason calculates the best way to achieve the goal. Investigations from different areas of cognitive science have shown that human decisions and actions are much more influenced by intuition and emotional responses then it was previously thought. In this paper I examine the role of emotion in decision making, particularly Damasio’s hypothesis of somatic markers and Green’s dual process theory of moral judgment. I conclude the...
Common features between the domains of behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are discussed. These features are allocated in two aspects. First, behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are traditionally considered to provoke inadequate human behaviour. In this article arguments are put forward against this interpretation: Actions induced by non-rational decisions and / or by suggestional processes often have adaptive functions. Second, two common themat...
Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne; Robbins, Trevor W
Adolescence is characterized by making risky decisions. Early lesion and neuroimaging studies in adults pointed to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and related structures as having a key role in decision-making. More recent studies have fractionated decision-making processes into its various components, including the representation of value, response selection (including inter-temporal choice and cognitive control), associative learning, and affective and social aspects. These different aspects of decision-making have been the focus of investigation in recent studies of the adolescent brain. Evidence points to a dissociation between the relatively slow, linear development of impulse control and response inhibition during adolescence versus the nonlinear development of the reward system, which is often hyper-responsive to rewards in adolescence. This suggests that decision-making in adolescence may be particularly modulated by emotion and social factors, for example, when adolescents are with peers or in other affective ('hot') contexts.
This paper suggests incorporating affective considerations into decision making theory and insurance decision in particular. I describe a decision maker with two internal accounts - the rational account and the mental account. The rational account decides on insurance to maximize expected (perceived) utility, while the mental account chooses risk perceptions which then affect the perceived expected utility. The two accounts interact to reach a decision which is composed of both risk perceptio...
Andrei Sergeevich Emelyanov
Full Text Available This article is devoted to an extensive and modern area of scientific knowledge – Decision theory. The author comprehends and analyzes critically the methodological bases of the Decision theory, he thinks, it rejects the most important thing – a human. In the article the reconstruction of historical development in the Decision theory is considered and also existential factors and feelings are discussed, which appear in human being and operate the situation of decision-making.
Full Text Available People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.
Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael
People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448
Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael
People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.
Chang, Luke J; Sanfey, Alan G
Initial explorations in the burgeoning field of neuroeconomics have highlighted evidence supporting a potential dissociation between a fast automatic system and a slow deliberative controlled system. Growing research in the role of emotion in decision-making has attempted to draw parallels to the automatic system. This chapter will discuss a theoretical framework for understanding the role of emotion in decision-making and evidence supporting the underlying neural substrates. This chapter applies a conceptual framework to understanding the role of emotion in decision-making, and emphasizes a distinction between expected and immediate emotions. Expected emotions refer to anticipated emotional states associated with a given decision that are never actually experienced. Immediate emotions, however, are experienced at the time of decision, and either can occur in response to a particular decision or merely as a result of a transitory fluctuation. This chapter will review research from the neuroeconomics literature that supports a neural dissociation between these two classes of emotion and also discuss a few interpretive caveats. Several lines of research including regret, uncertainty, social decision-making, and moral decision-making have yielded evidence consistent with our formulization--expected and immediate emotions may invoke dissociable neural systems. This chapter provides a more specific conceptualization of the mediating role of emotions in the decision-making process, which has important implications for understanding the interacting neural systems underlying the interface between emotion and cognition--a topic of immediate value to anyone investigating topics within the context of social-cognitive-affective-neuroscience.
Roudsari, Robab Latifnejad; Khadivzadeh, Talat; Bahrami, Masoud
More than 30% of pregnancies in Iran are unintended and most of them happen among the women who use various contraceptive methods. Results of Integrated Monitoring and Evaluation System (IMES) showed that the rate of innovative contraceptive use in Mashhad has been 41.5%-57% in different urban areas. This study was conducted to explore the process of making decision toward using family planning methods in women of reproductive age in urban society of Mashhad, Iran. In this grounded theory study, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 45 purposefully selected participants including 28 women and 17 key informants including family health providers and managers, and participants' mothers and husbands, who lived in urban society of Mashhad, Iran, in 2011-2012. Participants' recruitment continued until data saturation occurred. Data were analyzed using Strauss and Corbin's mode of analysis through constant comparative method, applying levels of open, axial, and selective coding with MAXqda software. Study rigor was confirmed through prolonged engagement, member check, expert debriefing, and thick description of the data. The core category of "caring the comprehensive health of my family," which emerged from the data, described the process of couples' decision making toward using family planning methods in this study. Other developed categories which were presented into a theoretical scheme consisted of 1) shaping the ideas of fertility control, 2) developing cognition about the fertility control methods, 3) appraising available choices and choosing the most appropriate one, 4) managing the course of using methods, and 5) realizing the fertility intentions. It is important that family planning providers understand the motivations, perceptions, and knowledge of women about contraceptive methods in their contextual situation, which illustrates their mode of interaction in the arenas of family planning decision making.
The research reported in this paper aimed to examine the relationships between decisiveness in social relationships, and the decision-making styles of a group of university students and to investigate the contributions of decision-making styles in predicting decisiveness in social relationship (conflict resolution, social relationship selection…
Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato
The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants' choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward, the "reward value" of the decision outcome, which guided the update of value for each choice, is unknown beforehand. To estimate the reward value of emotional pictures from participants' choice data, we used reinforcement learning models that have successfully been used in previous studies for modeling value-based decision making. Consequently, we found that the estimated reward value was asymmetric between positive and negative pictures. The negative reward value of negative pictures (relative to neutral pictures) was larger in magnitude than the positive reward value of positive pictures. This asymmetry was not observed in valence for an individual picture, which was rated by the participants regarding the emotion experienced upon viewing it. These results suggest that there may be a difference between experienced emotion and the effect of the experienced emotion on subsequent behavior. Our experimental and computational paradigm provides a novel way for quantifying how and what aspects of emotional events affect human behavior. The present study is a first step toward relating a large amount of knowledge in emotion science and in taking computational approaches to value-based decision making.
Thackray, Debbie; Roberts, Lisa
The ability of physiotherapists to make clinical decisions is a vital component of being an autonomous practitioner, yet this complex phenomenon has been under-researched in cardiorespiratory physiotherapy. The purpose of this study was to explore clinical decision-making (CDM) by experienced physiotherapists in a scenario of a simulated patient experiencing acute deterioration of their respiratory function. The main objective of this observational study was to identify the actions, thoughts, and behaviours used by experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists in their clinical decision-making processes. A mixed-methods (qualitative) design employing observation and think-aloud, was adopted using a computerised manikin in a simulated environment. The participants clinically assessed the manikin programmed with the same clinical signs, under standardised conditions in the clinical skills practice suite, which was set up as a ward environment. Experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists, recruited from clinical practice within a 50-mile radius of the University(*). Participants were video-recorded throughout the assessment and treatment and asked to verbalise their thought processes using the 'think-aloud' method. The recordings were transcribed verbatim and managed using a Framework approach. Eight cardiorespiratory physiotherapists participated (mean 7years clinical experience, range 3.5-16years. CDM was similar to the collaborative hypothetico-deductive model, five-rights nursing model, reasoning strategies, inductive reasoning and pattern recognition. However, the CDM demonstrated by the physiotherapists was complex, interactive and iterative. Information processing occurred continuously throughout the whole interaction with the patient, and the specific cognitive skills of recognition, matching, discriminating, relating, inferring, synthesising and prediction were identified as being used sequentially. The findings from this study were used to develop a new
Khan, Mohd Shariq; Lee, Sanggyu; Rangaiah, G.P.; Lee, Moonyong
Highlights: • Practical method for finding optimum refrigerant composition is proposed for LNG plant. • Knowledge of boiling point differences in refrigerant component is employed. • Implementation of process knowledge notably makes LNG process energy efficient. • Optimization of LNG plant is more transparent using process knowledge. - Abstract: Mixed refrigerant (MR) systems are used in many industrial applications because of their high energy efficiency, compact design and energy-efficient heat transfer compared to other processes operating with pure refrigerants. The performance of MR systems depends strongly on the optimum refrigerant composition, which is difficult to obtain. This paper proposes a simple and practical method for selecting the appropriate refrigerant composition, which was inspired by (i) knowledge of the boiling point difference in MR components, and (ii) their specific refrigeration effect in bringing a MR system close to reversible operation. A feasibility plot and composite curves were used for full enforcement of the approach temperature. The proposed knowledge-based optimization approach was described and applied to a single MR and a propane precooled MR system for natural gas liquefaction. Maximization of the heat exchanger exergy efficiency was considered as the optimization objective to achieve an energy efficient design goal. Several case studies on single MR and propane precooled MR processes were performed to show the effectiveness of the proposed method. The application of the proposed method is not restricted to liquefiers, and can be applied to any refrigerator and cryogenic cooler where a MR is involved
Fortnum, Debbie; Smolonogov, Tatiana; Walker, Rachael; Kairaitis, Luke; Pugh, Debbie
For patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are progressing to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) a decision of whether to undertake dialysis or conservative care is a critical component of the patient journey. Shared decision making for complex decisions such as this could be enhanced by a decision aid, a practice which is well utilised in other disciplines but limited for nephrology. A multidisciplinary team in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) utilised current decision-making theory and best practice to develop the 'My Kidneys, My Choice', a decision aid for the treatment of kidney disease. A patient-centred, five-sectioned tool is now complete and freely available to all ANZ units to support the ESKD education and shared decision-making process. Distribution and education have occurred across ANZ and evaluation of the decision aid in practice is in the first phase. Development of a new tool such as an ESKD decision aid requires vision, multidisciplinary input and ongoing implementation resources. This tool is being integrated into ANZ, ESKD education practice and is promoting the philosophy of shared decision making. © 2014 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.
Hirshleifer, David; Jian, Ming; Zhang, Huai
In Chinese culture, certain digits are lucky and others unlucky. We test how such numerological superstition affects financial decision in the China IPO market. We find that the frequency of lucky numerical stock listing codes exceeds what would be expected by chance. Also consistent with superstition effects, newly listed firms with lucky listing codes are initially traded at a premium after controlling for known determinants of valuation multiples, the lucky number premium dissipates within...
The Atomic Energy Control Board is investigating the feasibility of developing methods for factoring cost-benefit considerations into its regulatory decision-making. This initiative results, in part, from the federal government policy requiring cost-benefit considerations to be taken into account in regulatory processes, and from the recommendations of an Advisory Panel on Regulatory Review in 1993, submitted to the Minister of Natural Resources Canada. One of these recommendations stated: 'that mechanisms be developed to examine cost benefit issues and work towards some consensus of opinion among stake holders: a task force on the subject could be an appropriate starting point'. (author)
Rogerson, Mark D; Gottlieb, Michael C; Handelsman, Mitchell M; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey
Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasilegal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior, including context, perceptions, relationships, emotions, and heuristics. For example, a large body of behavioral research has demonstrated the importance of automatic intuitive and affective processes in decision making and judgment. These processes profoundly affect human behavior and lead to systematic biases and departures from normative theories of rationality. Their influence represents an important but largely unrecognized component of ethical decision making. We selectively review this work; provide various illustrations; and make recommendations for scientists, trainers, and practitioners to aid them in integrating the understanding of nonrational processes with ethical decision making.
Szanto, Katalin; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Parker, Andrew M; Hallquist, Michael N; Vanyukov, Polina M; Dombrovski, Alexandre Y
Objective The propensity of people vulnerable to suicide to make poor life decisions is increasingly well documented. Do they display an extreme degree of decision biases? The present study used a behavioral decision approach to examine the susceptibility of low-lethality and high-lethality suicide attempters to common decision biases, which may ultimately obscure alternative solutions and deterrents to suicide in a crisis. Method We assessed older and middle-aged individuals who made high-lethality (medically serious; N=31) and low-lethality suicide attempts (N=29). Comparison groups included suicide ideators (N=30), non-suicidal depressed (N=53), and psychiatrically healthy participants (N=28). Attempters, ideators, and non-suicidal depressed participants had unipolar non-psychotic major depression. Decision biases included sunk cost (inability to abort an action for which costs are irrecoverable), framing (responding to superficial features of how a problem is presented), under/overconfidence (appropriateness of confidence in knowledge), and inconsistent risk perception. Data were collected between June of 2010 and February of 2014. Results Both high- and low-lethality attempters were more susceptible to framing effects, as compared to the other groups included in this study (p≤ 0.05, ηp2 =.06). In contrast, low-lethality attempters were more susceptible to sunk costs than both the comparison groups and high-lethality attempters (p≤ 0.01, ηp2 =.09). These group differences remained after accounting for age, global cognitive performance, and impulsive traits. Premorbid IQ partially explained group differences in framing effects. Conclusion Suicide attempters’ failure to resist framing may reflect their inability to consider a decision from an objective standpoint in a crisis. Low-lethality attempters’ failure to resist sunk-cost may reflect their tendency to confuse past and future costs of their behavior, lowering their threshold for acting on suicidal
Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique
Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs). The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis) and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis). The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes
Full Text Available Abstract Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs. The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis. The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original
Cara Okleshen Peters, Ph.D.
Full Text Available This paper highlights the potential of customer decision support systems (CDSS to assist students in education-related decision making. Faculty can use these resources to more effectively advise students on various elements of college life, while students can employ them to more actively participate in their own learning and improve their academic experience. This conceptual paper summarizes consumer decision support systems (CDSS concepts and presents exemplar websites students could utilize to support their education-related decision making. Finally, the authors discuss the potential benefits and drawbacks such resources engender from a student perspective and conclude with directions for future research.
Peng, Jiaxi; Zhang, Jiaxi; Sun, Hao; Zeng, Zhicong; Mai, Yuexia; Miao, Danmin
By applying unitive vocabulary, "die" or "save," to respective frames of the Asian disease problem, Tversky and Kahneman were able to define framing effect. In this study, we preliminarily explored the effect of mixed frames, which are characterized by the use of different vocabulary in one frame. In study 1, we found that only the sure option description had significant effect on decision-making, while the effects of risky option descriptions were not significant, nor were interactions between descriptions. In study 2, the results suggested that after controlling the effects of the hedonic tone of the sure options, risky option description did not significantly predict decision-making. In study 3, we found that neither the sure-to-risky option presentation order nor presentation order within risky options had significant effect on decision-making. We thus concluded that sure option description can serve as the decision-making foundation (reference point) for decision-makers in mixed frames.
Approximately 10-15% of our diagnostic decisions are faulty and may lead to unfavorable and dangerous outcomes, which could be avoided. These diagnostic errors are mainly caused by cognitive biases in the diagnostic reasoning process.Our medical diagnostic decision-making is based on intuitive "System 1" and analytical "System 2" diagnostic decision-making and can be deviated by unconscious cognitive biases.These deviations can be positively influenced on a systemic and an individual level. For the individual, metacognition (internal withdrawal from the decision-making process) and debiasing strategies, such as verification, falsification and rule out worst-case scenarios, can lead to improved diagnostic decisions making.
Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P.; Glasspool, David W.
Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering. PMID:23565100
Full Text Available Decision-making behaviour is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualisation of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem-solving, planning and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuro-psychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering.
URL des Cahiers :http://mse.univ-paris1.fr/MSEFramCahier2005.htm; Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques 2005.89 - ISSN : 1624-0340; Since von Neuman and Morgenstern's (1944) contribution to game theory, the expected utility criterion has become the standard functional to evaluate risky prospects. Risky prospects are understood to be lotteries on a set of prizes. In which case a decision maker will receive a precise prize with a given probability. A wide interest on imprecise object ha...
Reports that the development of command-and-con trol systems in support of decision making and action taking has been accomplished by military...methods applicable to management systems. Concludes that the command-and-control type system for top management decision making is a man-machine system having as its core an on going, dynamic operation. (Author)
Astor, Philipp J.
By employing the methodology of experimental economics, the thesis examines the influence of emotions on decision making in electronic auction markets. Subjects' emotional processes are measured by psychophysiological indicators, helping to decipher the coherence of information, emotion (regulation) and decision making. Four chapters build the main body of the thesis and all are constructed similarly: introduction, design, method, results, limitations, theoretical and managerial implications.
Stokes, Jacqueline; Schmidt, Glen
This study explored decision making by child protection social workers in the province of British Columbia, Canada. A factorial survey method was used in which case vignettes were constructed by randomly assigning a number of key characteristics associated with decision making in child protection. Child protection social workers (n = 118) assessed…
Timmis, James Kenneth; Black, Steven; Rappuoli, Rino
Healthcare decisions, in particular those affecting entire populations, should be evidence-based and taken by decision-makers sharing broad alignment with affected stakeholders. However, criteria, priorities and procedures for decision-making are sometimes non-transparent, frequently vary considerably across equivalent decision-bodies, do not always consider the broader benefits of new health-measures, and therefore do not necessarily adequately represent the relevant stakeholder-spectrum. Areas covered: To address these issues in the context of the evaluation of new vaccines, we have proposed a first baseline set of core evaluation criteria, primarily selected by members of the vaccine research community, and suggested their implementation in vaccine evaluation procedures. In this communication, we review the consequences and utility of stakeholder-centered core considerations to increase transparency in and accountability of decision-making procedures, in general, and of the benefits gained by their inclusion in Multi-Criteria-Decision-Analysis tools, exemplified by SMART Vaccines, specifically. Expert commentary: To increase effectiveness and comparability of health decision outcomes, decision procedures should be properly standardized across equivalent (national) decision bodies. To this end, including stakeholder-centered criteria in decision procedures would significantly increase their transparency and accountability, support international capacity building to improve health, and reduce societal costs and inequity resulting from suboptimal health decision-making.
Weisman, C S; Plichta, S; Nathanson, C A; Chase, G A; Ensminger, M E; Robinson, J C
A modified rational decision model incorporating salient events and social influences (particularly from sexual partners) is used to analyze adolescent women's consistent use of oral contraceptives (OCs) over a six-month period. Data are taken from a panel study of 308 clients of an inner-city family planning clinic. Expected OC use was computed for each subject on the basis of subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, and is found in multivariate analyses to be a significant predictor of actual OC use. In addition, variables representing baseline and follow-up partner influences, the salience of pregnancy for the subject, and positive side effects of OCs during the first months of use are found to predict OC use. Partner's support of OC use during follow-up and positive side effects of OCs are found to predict OC use among subjects for whom OC use was not the expected decision according to baseline SEU. Implications of the findings for models of adolescents' contraceptive behavior and for clinicians are discussed.
How a doctor arrives at a decision is of interest to both the developed and the developing countries. The developed and the developing want to walk on the same road but from different directions: one wants to develop a little more and the other wants to develop a little less for cost containment. To justify nuclear medicine in a developing country we have to see nuclear medicine in a new role. It is not for putting the diagnostic labels, not for differential diagnosis as we have been conditioned to think so far. In a developing country it should be for differential management, How does it alter the management decision in respect to a particular patient? If management outcomes are restricted, there is no need for an investigation which does not help in any way the management of the patient. If there is no bypass surgery, what use is the thallium perfusion? Although primarily a diagnostic discipline for its justification and survival in the developing country it should lead to a sensible differential management
Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín
The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.
Matthies, S; Philipsen, A; Svaldi, J
Risky decision making and disadvantageous choices constitute core characteristics of patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Consequences include negative psychosocial and health-related outcomes. However, risky decision making and its interrelations with emotional states in ADHD are poorly understood. Therefore, the authors investigated risky decision making without and after boredom induction in adults with and without ADHD. In study 1, ADHD patients (n = 15) and age/education matched controls (CG; n = 16) were compared on the Game of Dice Task (GDT), an established task measuring decision making in unambiguous situations. In study 2, ADHD patients (n = 14) and CG (n = 13) underwent boredom induction prior to the GDT. In study 1, ADHD patients selected the disadvantageous alternatives significantly more often than CG. In study 2, no significant group differences were found due to an increase in risky decision making in CG following the boredom induction. Even if severity of depression did not affect our results, it may be necessary to compare GDT responses in ADHD patients with and without current depression. Risk as a motor of disadvantageous decision making needs to be taken into account in therapeutic contexts as a maintenance factor of dysfunctional behaviour. The findings of study 2 are in line with postulated alterations of emotional state adjustment in ADHD. The link between decisions making and emotional regulation in ADHD needs further attention in research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.
Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A.; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín
The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict –associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)– has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making. PMID:25461384
Yang, Chyan; Wu, Chia-Chun
The purpose of this research is to provide managers of shopping websites information regarding consumer purchasing decisions based on the Consumer Styles Inventory (CSI). According to the CSI, one can capture what decision-making styles online shoppers use. Furthermore, this research also discusses the gender differences among online shoppers. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to understand the decision-making styles and discriminant analysis was used to distinguish the differences between female and male shoppers. The result shows that there are differences in purchasing decisions between online female and male Internet users.
Kroese, G.J.; Staring, R.H.J.M.
This is a summary of a research into the motives of (bank) robbers and the choices they make. Information is presented on the offender's backgrounds, criminal careers, goals and typology, preparation and way of conduction of the robbery, the escape, opions of robbers, social organization and
Gupta, Rupa; Koscik, Timothy R; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel
Decision-making is a complex process that requires the orchestration of multiple neural systems. For example, decision-making is believed to involve areas of the brain involved in emotion (e.g., amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex) and memory (e.g., hippocampus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). In this article, we will present findings related to the amygdala's role in decision-making, and differentiate the contributions of the amygdala from those of other structurally and functionally connected neural regions. Decades of research have shown that the amygdala is involved in associating a stimulus with its emotional value. This tradition has been extended in newer work, which has shown that the amygdala is especially important for decision-making, by triggering autonomic responses to emotional stimuli, including monetary reward and punishment. Patients with amygdala damage lack these autonomic responses to reward and punishment, and consequently, cannot utilize "somatic marker" type cues to guide future decision-making. Studies using laboratory decision-making tests have found deficient decision-making in patients with bilateral amygdala damage, which resembles their real-world difficulties with decision-making. Additionally, we have found evidence for an interaction between sex and laterality of amygdala functioning, such that unilateral damage to the right amygdala results in greater deficits in decision-making and social behavior in men, while left amygdala damage seems to be more detrimental for women. We have posited that the amygdala is part of an "impulsive," habit type system that triggers emotional responses to immediate outcomes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.