Sample records for decision interstate lead
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State enforcement of federal standards: Implications for interstate pollution
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hutchinson, Emma; Kennedy, Peter W. [Department of Economics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2 (Canada)
2008-08-15
This paper explores the relationship between interstate air pollution and the division of power between federal and state agencies in setting and enforcing standards. In the context of the US Clean Air Act we argue that the EPA is able to monitor the adoption of technology-based standards more closely than it can monitor state-level enforcement, and that this causes an effective division of control between federal and state agencies. Our analysis offers three main insights into the interstate pollution problem in this setting. First, states have an incentive to enforce standards less stringently on firms located close to downwind borders, and this leads to excessive interstate pollution in equilibrium. Second, there can arise an inherent substitutability in the regulatory problem between strict standards and compliance effort, and this creates a strategic linkage between the federal policy on standards and state policies on enforcement. In particular, a tighter federal standard can induce less selective enforcement but can also lead to less enforcement overall. Third, states will attempt to neutralize the impact of location-based federal standards (that specifically target interstate pollution) in a way that actually exacerbates the underlying enforcement problem. (author)
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40 CFR 52.2354 - Interstate transport.
2010-07-01
... 40 Protection of Environment 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interstate transport. 52.2354 Section...) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS (CONTINUED) Utah § 52.2354 Interstate transport. CAA..., Interstate Transport, of the Utah SIP submitted by the Utah Governor on March 22, 2007, satisfies the...
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40 CFR 52.352 - Interstate transport.
2010-07-01
... 40 Protection of Environment 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interstate transport. 52.352 Section 52...) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS Colorado § 52.352 Interstate transport. Addition to the Colorado State Implementation Plan of the Colorado Interstate Transport SIP regarding the 1997 8-Hour Ozone...
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16 CFR 240.6 - Interstate commerce.
2010-01-01
...(d) and 2(e) of the Act. (The commerce standard for sections 2 (d) and (e) is at least as inclusive... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interstate commerce. 240.6 Section 240.6... ALLOWANCES AND OTHER MERCHANDISING PAYMENTS AND SERVICES § 240.6 Interstate commerce. The term interstate...
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7 CFR 301.92 - Restrictions on interstate movement.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Restrictions on interstate movement. 301.92 Section... Restrictions on interstate movement. (a) No person may move interstate from any quarantined area any regulated... plant that was found infected with Phytophthora ramorum, unless such movement is in accordance with part...
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14 CFR 211.33 - Interstate and interstate authority.
2010-01-01
... the economic viability of existing services providing essential air transportation to any eligible... PROCEEDINGS) ECONOMIC REGULATIONS APPLICATIONS FOR PERMITS TO FOREIGN AIR CARRIERS Freely Associated State Air... establishing: (1) The impact of such interstate air transportation services on the economic projections of the...
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9 CFR 85.4 - Interstate movement of livestock.
2010-01-01
... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interstate movement of livestock. 85.4... Interstate movement of livestock. (a) Livestock showing clinical evidence of pseudorabies shall not be moved interstate. (b) Livestock that have been exposed to an animal showing clinical evidence of pseudorabies shall...
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40 CFR 52.1181 - Interstate pollution.
2010-07-01
... 40 Protection of Environment 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interstate pollution. 52.1181 Section...) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS (CONTINUED) Michigan § 52.1181 Interstate pollution. (a... significantly to levels of air pollution in excess of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards in that state...
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45 CFR 400.119 - Interstate movement.
2010-10-01
... 45 Public Welfare 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Interstate movement. 400.119 Section 400.119... Services § 400.119 Interstate movement. After the initial placement of an unaccompanied minor, the same procedures that govern the movement of nonrefugee foster cases to other States apply to the movement of...
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40 CFR 52.740 - Interstate pollution.
2010-07-01
... 40 Protection of Environment 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interstate pollution. 52.740 Section 52...) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS Illinois> § 52.740 Interstate pollution. (a) The... levels of air pollution in excess of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards in that state. [46 FR...
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29 CFR 782.7 - Interstate commerce requirements of exemption.
2010-07-01
... interstate commerce). (Walling v. Craig, 53 F. Supp. 479 (D. Minn). See also Engbretson v. E. J. Albrecht Co... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interstate commerce requirements of exemption. 782.7... HOURS PROVISIONS FOR CERTAIN EMPLOYEES OF MOTOR CARRIERS § 782.7 Interstate commerce requirements of...
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Interstate competition and political stability
Hugh-Jones, David
2010-01-01
Previous theories of globalization have examined factor mobility’s effect on the political conflict\\ud between social classes. But factor mobility also increases competition between state rulers in provid-\\ud ing services for citizens. I ask how this interstate competition affects the process of political change.\\ud In a simple model, interstate competition substitutes for democracy, by forcing rulers to invest in pub-\\ud lic goods so as to avoid capital and labor leaving the country. As a re...
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40 CFR 81.51 - Portland Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Regions § 81.51 Portland Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Portland Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Oregon-Washington) has been revised to consist of the territorial area... Portland Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Oregon-Washington) will be referred to by Washington...
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40 CFR 81.35 - Louisville Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Regions § 81.35 Louisville Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Louisville Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Kentucky-Indiana) consists of the territorial area encompassed by the... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Louisville Interstate Air Quality...
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40 CFR 81.42 - Chattanooga Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Regions § 81.42 Chattanooga Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Chattanooga Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Georgia-Tennessee) has been revised to consist of the territorial area... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Chattanooga Interstate Air Quality...
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U.S. interstate pipelines ran more efficiently in 1994
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
True, W.R.
1995-01-01
Regulated US interstate pipelines began 1995 under the momentum of impressive efficiency improvements in 1994. Annual reports filed with the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) show that both natural-gas and petroleum liquids pipeline companies increased their net incomes last year despite declining operating revenues. This article discusses trends in the pipeline industry and gives data on the following: pipeline revenues, incomes--1994; current pipeline costs; pipeline costs--estimated vs. actual; current compressor construction costs; compressor costs--estimated vs. actual; US interstate mileage; investment in liquids pipelines; 10-years of land construction costs; top 10 interstate liquids pipelines; top 10 interstate gas pipelines; liquids pipeline companies; and gas pipeline companies
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9 CFR 82.12 - Other interstate movements and special permits.
2010-01-01
..., or cleaning and disinfection may be carried out. (1) For an interstate movement, the special permit... interstate; and (iv) The reason for the interstate movement. (2) For destruction or cleaning and disinfection... END, in a manner other than is specifically prescribed in this subpart, and for cleaning and...
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Preventing Interstate Armed Conflict : whose responsibility?
Otunba, Ganiyu
2010-01-01
This is a study of interstate armed conflict prevention. The concept of conflict, armed conflict and conflict prevention is defined and explained in order to be able to investigate if there is any single institution saddled with the responsibility of preventing interstate armed conflict and also to verify if adequate efforts are been put in this area which is of importance to mankind. The relationship between conflict prevention, conflict management and conflict resolution is also discussed s...
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5 CFR 5001.103 - Impartiality determinations for members of the Interstate Commerce Commission.
2010-01-01
... of the Interstate Commerce Commission. 5001.103 Section 5001.103 Administrative Personnel INTERSTATE COMMERCE COMMISSION SUPPLEMENTAL STANDARDS OF ETHICAL CONDUCT FOR EMPLOYEES OF THE INTERSTATE COMMERCE COMMISSION § 5001.103 Impartiality determinations for members of the Interstate Commerce Commission. A member...
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18 CFR 284.102 - Transportation by interstate pipelines.
2010-04-01
... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Transportation by interstate pipelines. 284.102 Section 284.102 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY... 1978 AND RELATED AUTHORITIES Certain Transportation by Interstate Pipelines § 284.102 Transportation by...
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Road Construction Safety Audit for Interstate Reconstruction. Volume 1.
1998-10-01
Traffic control alternatives associated with reconstruction projects on a rural interstate have been investigated in this research. Slab replacement projects, milling/resurfacing projects, and traffic controls in the vicinity of interstate ramps were...
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Road Construction Safety Audit for Interstate Reconstruction. Volume 2.
1998-10-01
Traffic control alternatives associated with reconstruction projects on a rural interstate have been investigated in this research. Slab replacement projects, milling/resurfacing projects, and traffic controls in the vicinity of interstate ramps were...
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Gas supplies of interstate natural gas pipeline companies, 1991
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1992-01-01
This publication provides information on the total reserves, production, and deliverability capabilities of the 64 interstate pipeline companies required to file the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Form 15, ''Interstate Pipeline's Annual Report of Gas Supply.'' Data reported on this form are not considered to be confidential. This publication is the 29th in a series of annual reports on the total gas supplies of interstate pipeline companies since the inception of individual company reports to the Federal Power Commission (FPC) in 1964 for report year 1963
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24 CFR 30.55 - Interstate Land Sales violations.
2010-04-01
... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interstate Land Sales violations... Sales violations. (a) General. The Assistant Secretary for Housing-Federal Housing Commissioner, or his... materially violates any provision of the Interstate Land Sales Full Disclosure Act (15 U.S.C. 1701 et seq...
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Critical spare parts ordering decisions using conditional reliability and stochastic lead time
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Godoy, David R.; Pascual, Rodrigo; Knights, Peter
2013-01-01
Asset-intensive companies face great pressure to reduce operation costs and increase utilization. This scenario often leads to over-stress on critical equipment and its spare parts associated, affecting availability, reliability, and system performance. As these resources impact considerably on financial and operational structures, the opportunity is given by demand for decision-making methods for the management of spare parts processes. We proposed an ordering decision-aid technique which uses a measurement of spare performance, based on the stress–strength interference theory; which we have called Condition-Based Service Level (CBSL). We focus on Condition Managed Critical Spares (CMS), namely, spares which are expensive, highly reliable, with higher lead times, and are not available in store. As a mitigation measure, CMS are under condition monitoring. The aim of the paper is orienting the decision time for CMS ordering or just continuing the operation. The paper presents a graphic technique which considers a rule for decision based on both condition-based reliability function and a stochastic/fixed lead time. For the stochastic lead time case, results show that technique is effective to determine the time when the system operation is reliable and can withstand the lead time variability, satisfying a desired service level. Additionally, for the constant lead time case, the technique helps to define insurance spares. In conclusion, presented ordering decision rule is useful to asset managers for enhancing the operational continuity affected by spare parts
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77 FR 77004 - Data Standards for Electronic Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection
2012-12-31
...] Data Standards for Electronic Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection AGENCY: Animal and Plant... data standards required to generate an official interstate certificate of veterinary inspection (ICVI... interstate certificate of veterinary inspection (ICVI). The standards were developed with the National...
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7 CFR 201.31 - Germination standards for vegetable seeds in interstate commerce.
2010-01-01
... interstate commerce. 201.31 Section 201.31 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... Germination standards for vegetable seeds in interstate commerce. The following germination standards for vegetable seeds in interstate commerce, which shall be construed to include hard seed, are determined and...
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2011-01-19
... pest risk analysis, which we made available to the public for review and comment through a previous... announcing the availability of the pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the interstate... measures if: (1) No comments were received on the pest risk analysis; (2) the comments on the pest risk...
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2011-10-07
... States of fresh rambutan fruit from Puerto Rico. Based on the findings of a pest risk analysis, which we... movement of commodities that, based on the findings of a pest risk analysis, can be safely imported subject... pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the interstate movement of a particular...
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An assessment of interstate safety investment properties in Washington state.
2014-12-01
The Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) commissioned the current study, targeting the entire interstate : mainline network in Washington State, to provide strategic direction to multi-biennial investment interstate locations that of...
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40 CFR 81.63 - Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.63 Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Arkansas-Oklahoma) has been revised to consist...
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2013-10-24
... States of fresh sapote fruit from Puerto Rico. Based on the findings of a pest risk analysis, which we... announcing the availability of the pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the interstate... measures if: (1) No comments were received on the pest risk analysis; (2) the comments on the pest risk...
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21 CFR 1240.62 - Turtles intrastate and interstate requirements.
2010-04-01
... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Turtles intrastate and interstate requirements....62 Turtles intrastate and interstate requirements. (a) Definition. As used in this section the term “turtles” includes all animals commonly known as turtles, tortoises, terrapins, and all other animals of...
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9 CFR 77.36 - Interstate movement from qualified herds.
2010-01-01
... date of movement. If a group of captive cervids from a qualified herd is being moved interstate... unclassified herd. (4) Captive cervids being moved interstate for the purpose of exhibition only may be moved... being moved directly from a classified herd, the captive cervid must be isolated from all other animals...
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76 FR 58741 - Storage Reporting Requirements of Interstate and Intrastate Natural Gas Companies
2011-09-22
...] Storage Reporting Requirements of Interstate and Intrastate Natural Gas Companies AGENCY: Federal Energy... the semi-annual storage reporting requirements for Interstate and Intrastate Natural Gas Companies... proposes to eliminate the semi-annual storage reporting requirements for: (1) Interstate natural gas...
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23 CFR 710.405 - Air rights on the Interstate.
2010-04-01
... 23 Highways 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Air rights on the Interstate. 710.405 Section 710.405 Highways FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION RIGHT-OF-WAY AND ENVIRONMENT RIGHT-OF-WAY AND REAL ESTATE Real Property Management § 710.405 Air rights on the Interstate. (a) The FHWA...
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77 FR 4220 - Storage Reporting Requirements of Interstate and Intrastate Natural Gas Companies
2012-01-27
...; Order No. 757] Storage Reporting Requirements of Interstate and Intrastate Natural Gas Companies AGENCY... eliminates the semi-annual storage reporting requirements for Interstate and Intrastate Natural Gas Companies...-annual storage reporting requirements for (1) interstate natural gas companies subject to the Commission...
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20 CFR 655.150 - Interstate clearance of job order.
2010-04-01
... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interstate clearance of job order. 655.150... job order. (a) SWA posts in interstate clearance system. The SWA must promptly place the job order in... transmit a copy of its active job order to all States listed in the job order as anticipated worksites...
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Deliverability on the interstate natural gas pipeline system
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1998-05-01
Deliverability on the Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline System examines the capability of the national pipeline grid to transport natural gas to various US markets. The report quantifies the capacity levels and utilization rates of major interstate pipeline companies in 1996 and the changes since 1990, as well as changes in markets and end-use consumption patterns. It also discusses the effects of proposed capacity expansions on capacity levels. The report consists of five chapters, several appendices, and a glossary. Chapter 1 discusses some of the operational and regulatory features of the US interstate pipeline system and how they affect overall system design, system utilization, and capacity expansions. Chapter 2 looks at how the exploration, development, and production of natural gas within North America is linked to the national pipeline grid. Chapter 3 examines the capability of the interstate natural gas pipeline network to link production areas to market areas, on the basis of capacity and usage levels along 10 corridors. The chapter also examines capacity expansions that have occurred since 1990 along each corridor and the potential impact of proposed new capacity. Chapter 4 discusses the last step in the transportation chain, that is, deliverability to the ultimate end user. Flow patterns into and out of each market region are discussed, as well as the movement of natural gas between States in each region. Chapter 5 examines how shippers reserve interstate pipeline capacity in the current transportation marketplace and how pipeline companies are handling the secondary market for short-term unused capacity. Four appendices provide supporting data and additional detail on the methodology used to estimate capacity. 32 figs., 15 tabs.
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9 CFR 71.3 - Interstate movement of diseased animals and poultry generally prohibited.
2010-01-01
... viremia of carp may be moved interstate only if they are being moved directly to a facility to be... to the United States, or which are cattle fever tick infested, shall not be moved interstate. (b... exist in the United States, shall not be moved interstate. (c) Notwithstanding the provisions of...
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78 FR 8987 - Interstate Movement of Sharwil Avocados From Hawaii
2013-02-07
.... APHIS-2012-0008] RIN 0579-AD70 Interstate Movement of Sharwil Avocados From Hawaii AGENCY: Animal and... Hawaii quarantine regulations to allow the interstate movement of untreated Sharwil avocados from Hawaii into the continental United States. As a condition of movement, Sharwil avocados from Hawaii would have...
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7 CFR 201.65 - Noxious weed seeds in interstate commerce.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Noxious weed seeds in interstate commerce. 201.65 Section 201.65 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... ACT FEDERAL SEED ACT REGULATIONS Tolerances § 201.65 Noxious weed seeds in interstate commerce...
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9 CFR 82.24 - Other interstate movements and special permits.
2010-01-01
... issued, and the special conditions under which the interstate movement, or cleaning and disinfection, may...; and (iv) The reason for the interstate movement. (2) For cleaning and disinfection, the special permit... prescribed by this subpart. A special permit is required for the disinfection of vehicles, premises, cages...
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2011-05-20
...: Interstate 64 Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Corridor, Virginia AGENCY: Federal Highway Administration (FHWA... Interstate 64 Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel (HRBT) corridor in Virginia. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT... Interstate 64 Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel (HRBT) corridor in Virginia. The approximate limits of the study...
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Taxonomy of interstate conflicts: is South America a peaceful region?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tássio Franchi
2017-08-01
Full Text Available This article revisits theoretical efforts to classify interstate conflicts. It analyses South America and discuss the adequacy of influential interpretations about the intensity of interstate conflicts in the region as compared to global or other regions ones. The literature takes for granted that South America is a peaceful region. Such interpretation results from the indicators adopted. We argue that traditional indicators do not fully capture latent tensions and the actual level of conflicts in the region. The article suggests an alternative taxonomy that better fits the South America context and argues that a research agenda on the extent and nature of interstate conflics is needed.
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Gas supplies of interstate natural gas pipeline companies 1990
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1992-01-01
This publication provides information on the interstate pipeline companies' supply of natural gas in the United States during calendar year 1990, for use by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for regulatory purposes. It also provides information to other Government agencies, the natural gas industry, as well as policy makers, analysts, and consumers interested in current levels of interstate supplies of natural gas and trends over recent years
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17 CFR 250.8 - Exemption of subsidiaries subject to jurisdiction of Interstate Commerce Commission.
2010-04-01
... subject to jurisdiction of Interstate Commerce Commission. 250.8 Section 250.8 Commodity and Securities... to jurisdiction of Interstate Commerce Commission. Any subsidiary company of a registered holding company, which subsidiary is subject to the jurisdiction of the Interstate Commerce Commission but is not...
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40 CFR 81.43 - Metropolitan Toledo Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.43 Section 81.43 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.43 Metropolitan Toledo Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Toledo Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Ohio-Michigan) consists of the territorial area...
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40 CFR 81.31 - Metropolitan Providence Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.31 Section 81.31 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.31 Metropolitan Providence Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Providence Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Rhode Island-Massachusetts) consists of the...
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40 CFR 81.90 - Androscoggin Valley Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.90 Section 81.90 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.90 Androscoggin Valley Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Androscoggin Valley Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Maine-New Hampshire) consists of the territorial...
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40 CFR 81.101 - Metropolitan Dubuque Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.101 Section 81.101 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.101 Metropolitan Dubuque Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Dubuque Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Illinois-Iowa-Wisconsin) consists of the...
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40 CFR 81.44 - Metropolitan Memphis Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.44 Section 81.44 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.44 Metropolitan Memphis Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Memphis Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Arkansas-Mississippi-Tennessee) consists of the...
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40 CFR 81.75 - Metropolitan Charlotte Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.75 Section 81.75 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.75 Metropolitan Charlotte Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Charlotte Interstate Air Quality Control Region (North Carolina-South Carolina) has been revised...
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Interstate Economic Integration - Essential Characteristic of the Contemporary World Economy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ramona Mariana CALINICA
2016-04-01
Full Text Available After the Second World War, the world economy became more and more characterized by an intensification of economic relations between different countries. The complex and diverse problems that faced the states, have imposed necessity for the identification of appropriate solutions to economic cooperation and economic interstate integration was considered an effective way to development and an answer to all these problems. The purpose of this article is to analyze the integration process of interstate economic integration in all its essential aspects. The study begins with the definition of the concept and continues with the analysis of the forms of interstate economic integration and the main organizations of this kind that existing in the world economy nowadays.
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40 CFR 81.98 - Burlington-Keokuk Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.98 Section 81.98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.98 Burlington-Keokuk Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Burlington-Keokuk Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Illinois-Iowa) is revised to consist of the...
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40 CFR 81.59 - Cumberland-Keyser Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.59 Section 81.59 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.59 Cumberland-Keyser Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Cumberland-Keyser Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Maryland-West Virginia) has been revised to consist...
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40 CFR 81.20 - Metropolitan Cincinnati Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.20 Section 81.20 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.20 Metropolitan Cincinnati Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Cincinnati Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana) is revised to consist of...
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40 CFR 81.14 - Metropolitan Chicago Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.14 Section 81.14 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.14 Metropolitan Chicago Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Chicago Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Illinois-Indiana) is revised to consist of the...
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40 CFR 81.48 - Champlain Valley Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.48 Section 81.48 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.48 Champlain Valley Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Champlain Valley Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Vermont-New York) has been revised to consist of the...
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40 CFR 81.121 - Four Corners Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Four Corners Interstate Air Quality Control Region. 81.121 Section 81.121 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED... Quality Control Regions § 81.121 Four Corners Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Four Corners...
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28 CFR 20.36 - Participation in the Interstate Identification Index System.
2010-07-01
... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Participation in the Interstate Identification Index System. 20.36 Section 20.36 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE CRIMINAL JUSTICE... in the Interstate Identification Index System. (a) In order to acquire and retain direct access to...
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2010-01-01
... after being moved interstate. (c) Before moving interstate any vehicles, cages, coops, containers... other containers or equipment used by or to move pet birds moved interstate in accordance with § 82.5(a... generated by or litter used by the birds or poultry, may be moved interstate from a quarantined area only in...
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18 CFR 382.203 - Annual charges under the Interstate Commerce Act.
2010-04-01
... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Annual charges under the Interstate Commerce Act. 382.203 Section 382.203 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL... § 382.203 Annual charges under the Interstate Commerce Act. (a) The adjusted costs of administration of...
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TOURISM AS A POLITICAL INTERSTATE DIALOGUE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anna Sergeevna Matveevskaya
2018-01-01
Full Text Available International tourism in the 21st century is an important factor in the world politics’ development. The growth of tourist flows and the worldwide scale of travels define tourism as part of the overall internationalization process of socio-economic relations. The tourism industry is developing quite stably and efficiently in many countries. National policies should be focused on obtaining the maximum benefit from international cooperation. The importance of international tourism in political discourse emphasizes the creation of international legal acts regulating the tourism industry, as well as different levels of tourist organizations. International tourism in world politics has a special advantage in resolving disagreements between states. The role of tourism in shaping the image and prestige of the country is noted. Russia’s participation in international tourism projects is a source of cultural, social and economic development. Interstate tours contribute to the development of cultural tourism into the sustainable development policies of countries and regions. A positive trend is the consent of the foreign partners on the inclusion of Russian tourist destinations in the perspective of cultural routes. Purpose. Determination of the political role of tourism in interstate relations. Methodology in article theoretical analysis and descriptive method were used. Results: international tourism in the XXI century is one of the most important factor in world politics. Practical implications. The results of the research can serve as a basis for the further development and improvement of interstate relations by means of tourism.
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7 CFR 301.75-6 - Interstate movement of regulated nursery stock from a quarantined area.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interstate movement of regulated nursery stock from a... Citrus Canker Notice of Quarantine and Regulations § 301.75-6 Interstate movement of regulated nursery stock from a quarantined area. (a) Regulated nursery stock may not be moved interstate from a...
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45 CFR 660.11 - What are the Director's obligations in interstate situations?
2010-10-01
... 45 Public Welfare 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false What are the Director's obligations in interstate... SCIENCE FOUNDATION INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVIEW OF THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION PROGRAMS AND ACTIVITIES § 660.11 What are the Director's obligations in interstate situations? (a) The Director is responsible...
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Analyzing the Dynamics of Inter-state water peace: A study of the Huitzilapan-Xalapa Water Transfers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carmen Maganda
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This article examines the political conflict surrounding the interstate transfer of water in the Huitzilapan-Xalapa Aqueduct, from which about 60% of the water resources for the city of Xalapa, state capital of Veracruz, come. This interstate water transfer has eventually lead to political and social conflict based on misinformation about perceived water shortages to Xalapa. The article examines a case in which water officials from Xalapa have apparently complied with guidelines related to procedural, distributive, and ecological justice. Therefore, the article proposes a focus on «justice as responsible (and informed dialogue» as a central element of procedural justice. The analysis is based on a review of official documents, such as Mexican water laws and the water concession under which this water transfer has occurred, press reviews published in regional newspapers, a field visit and interviews with key stakeholders and researchers mostly in Veracruz state.
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2013-03-26
... Shipment Report of Theft/Loss ACTION: 60-Day notice. The Department of Justice (DOJ), Bureau of Alcohol... Form/Collection: Interstate Firearms Shipment Report of Theft/Loss. (3) Agency form number, if any, and... report losses or thefts of firearms from interstate shipments. ATF uses this information to ensure that...
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2013-06-18
... Shipment Report of Theft/Loss ACTION: 30-Day Notice. The Department of Justice (DOJ), Bureau of Alcohol... Form/Collection: Interstate Firearms Shipment Report of Theft/Loss. (3) Agency form number, if any, and... report losses or thefts of firearms from interstate shipments. ATF uses this information to ensure that...
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Data processing and optimization system to study prospective interstate power interconnections
Podkovalnikov, Sergei; Trofimov, Ivan; Trofimov, Leonid
2018-01-01
The paper presents Data processing and optimization system for studying and making rational decisions on the formation of interstate electric power interconnections, with aim to increasing effectiveness of their functioning and expansion. The technologies for building and integrating a Data processing and optimization system including an object-oriented database and a predictive mathematical model for optimizing the expansion of electric power systems ORIRES, are described. The technology of collection and pre-processing of non-structured data collected from various sources and its loading to the object-oriented database, as well as processing and presentation of information in the GIS system are described. One of the approaches of graphical visualization of the results of optimization model is considered on the example of calculating the option for expansion of the South Korean electric power grid.
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18 CFR 284.223 - Transportation by interstate pipelines on behalf of shippers.
2010-04-01
... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Transportation by interstate pipelines on behalf of shippers. 284.223 Section 284.223 Conservation of Power and Water Resources... by Interstate Pipelines on Behalf of Others and Services by Local Distribution Companies § 284.223...
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2013-06-10
... Collection; Interstate Movement of Certain Land Tortoises AGENCY: Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service... with regulations for the interstate movement of certain land tortoises. DATES: We will consider all... regulations for the interstate movement of certain land tortoises, contact Dr. Christa Speekmann, Import...
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2012-06-20
... use of energy. List of Subjects in 49 CFR Part 375 Advertising, Arbitration, Consumer protection...--TRANSPORTATION OF HOUSEHOLD GOODS IN INTERSTATE COMMERCE; CONSUMER PROTECTION REGULATIONS 0 1. The authority... No. FMCSA-2012-0119] RIN 2126-AB52 Transportation of Household Goods in Interstate Commerce; Consumer...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Harvey Gresham Hudspeth
2002-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the evolution of the judicial interpretation of the term“ interstate commerce” beginning with the enactment the Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890 and concluding with the Supreme Court’s US. v. Darby decision some 51 years later. As may be recalled, the Fuller Court’s 1895 ruling in E.C. Knight all but destroyed Sherman and allowed most corporate monopolies free reign going into the early twentieth century. Even after Sherman’s revival in Northern Securities, however, the Court’s narrow interpretation of “interstate commerce” continued to effectively thwart federal attempts at economic regulation for the next half century. This paper examines the formulation of the so-called “Greene Doctrine” and its author, future Supreme Court Justice Howell Edmunds Jackson as well as their ultimate impact on American constitutional and economic history.
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2010-06-04
...] Notice of Request for Extension of Approval of an Information Collection; Interstate Movement of Certain... interstate movement of certain land tortoises. DATES: We will consider all comments that we receive on or... FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For information on regulations for the interstate movement of certain land...
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Inter-state coupling and definitions of bright and dark states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mensik, Miroslav; Nespurek, Stanislav
2007-01-01
Contrary to a standard definition of diabatic states (i.e., those without momentum-dependent coupling), based on the construction from adiabatic ones, we defined diabatic states as bright and dark states of a given experiment. Namely, they are defined as states providing maximum, respectively, zero value of electronic transition dipole moments projected to a given polarization vector. Second, the state from (or to) which the optical transition is performed is not from the space of investigated electronic excited state manifold, but it is chosen by the observer. It is shown, for this case, that the inter-state coupling is a general function of vibrational coordinates. The explicit dependence of the inter-state coupling on vibrational coordinates is particularly important for system with strong Stokes shift. The role of exact definitions of bright and dark states as well as the inter-state coupling is discussed with respect to the coherent structure of electronic population observed in optical spectroscopy
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Deliberation in the Motor System: Reflex Gains Track Evolving Evidence Leading to a Decision
Selen, L.P.J.; Shadlen, M.N.; Wolpert, D.M.
2012-01-01
Both decision making and sensorimotor control require real-time processing of noisy information streams. Historically these processes were thought to operate sequentially: cognitive processing leads to a decision, and the outcome is passed to the motor system to be converted into action. Recently,
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75 FR 80758 - Storage Reporting Requirements of Interstate and Intrastate Natural Gas Companies
2010-12-23
...] Storage Reporting Requirements of Interstate and Intrastate Natural Gas Companies December 16, 2010... natural gas pipelines to report semi-annually on their storage activities. This Notice of Inquiry will... reports required of interstate and intrastate natural gas companies pursuant to 18 CFR 284.13(e) and 284...
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9 CFR 81.2 - Identification of deer, elk, and moose in interstate commerce.
2010-01-01
... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Identification of deer, elk, and moose in interstate commerce. 81.2 Section 81.2 Animals and Animal Products ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH... moose in interstate commerce. Each animal required to be identified by this subpart must have at least...
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15 CFR 930.151 - Interstate coastal effect.
2010-01-01
... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interstate coastal effect. 930.151...) NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE OCEAN AND COASTAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT FEDERAL CONSISTENCY WITH APPROVED COASTAL MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS Consistency of Federal Activities...
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Li, Yingmin; Wang, Jiaxi; Clark, Melissa L.; Kubiak, Clifford P.; Xiong, Wei
2016-04-01
We report the first fourth-order 3D SFG spectroscopy of a monolayer of the catalyst Re(diCN-bpy)(CO)3Cl on a gold surface. Besides measuring the vibrational coherences of single vibrational modes, the fourth-order 3D SFG spectrum also measures the dynamics of interstate coherences and vibrational coherences states between two vibrational modes. By comparing the 3D SFG to the corresponding 2D and third-order 3D IR spectroscopy of the same molecules in solution, we found that the interstate coherences exist in both liquid and surface systems, suggesting that the interstate coherence is not disrupted by surface interactions. However, by analyzing the 3D spectral lineshape, we found that the interstate coherences also experience non-negligible homogenous dephasing dynamics that originate from surface interactions. This unique ability of determining interstate vibrational coherence dynamics of the molecular monolayer can help in understanding of how energy flows within surface catalysts and other molecular monolayers.
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77 FR 51792 - Colorado Interstate Gas Company, L.L.C.; Notice of Application
2012-08-27
... Interstate Gas Company, L.L.C.; Notice of Application Take notice that on August 7, 2012, Colorado Interstate Gas Company, L.L.C. (CIG), Post Office Box 1087, Colorado Springs, Colorado 80944, filed in the above captioned docket an application pursuant to section 7(c) of the Natural Gas Act (NGA) for a certificate of...
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40 CFR 81.55 - Northeast Pennsylvania-Upper Delaware Valley Interstate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Northeast Pennsylvania-Upper Delaware... Designation of Air Quality Control Regions § 81.55 Northeast Pennsylvania-Upper Delaware Valley Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Northeast Pennsylvania-Upper Delaware Valley Interstate Air Quality Control...
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25 CFR 20.513 - Should Interstate Compacts be used for the placement of children?
2010-04-01
... children? 20.513 Section 20.513 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR HUMAN SERVICES FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE AND SOCIAL SERVICES PROGRAMS Child Assistance Foster Care § 20.513 Should Interstate Compacts be used for the placement of children? Interstate compact agreements should be used when...
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7 CFR 301.75-10 - Interstate movement of regulated articles through a quarantined area.
2010-01-01
... articles being moved interstate, and the date the interstate movement began. (b) The regulated article is moved through the quarantined area without being unloaded, and no regulated article, except regulated... through a quarantined area. Any regulated article not produced in a quarantined area may be moved...
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2010-01-01
... âSâ brand permits for interstate movement of animals. 78.2 Section 78.2 Animals and Animal Products... certificates, permits, and “S” brand permits for interstate movement of animals. (a) Any certificate, permit, or “S” brand permit required by this part for the interstate movement of animals shall be delivered...
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Can avoidance of complications lead to biased healthcare decisions?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jennifer Amsterlaw
2006-07-01
Full Text Available Imagine that you have just received a colon cancer diagnosis and need to choose between two different surgical treatments. One surgery, the ``complicated surgery,'' has a lower mortality rate (16\\% vs. 20\\% but compared to the other surgery, the ``uncomplicated surgery,'' also carries an additional 1\\% risk of each of four serious complications: colostomy, chronic diarrhea, wound infection, or an intermittent bowel obstruction. The complicated surgery dominates the uncomplicated surgery as long as life with complications is In our first survey, 51\\% of a sample (recruited from the cafeteria of a university medical center selected the dominated alternative, the uncomplicated surgery, justifying this choice by saying that the death risks for the two surgeries were essentially the same and that the uncomplicated surgery avoided the risk of complications. In follow-up surveys, preference for the uncomplicated surgery remained relatively consistent (39\\%--51\\% despite (a presenting the risks in frequencies rather than percents, (b grouping the 4 complications into a single category, or (c giving the uncomplicated surgery a small chance of complications as well. Even when a pre-decision ``focusing exercise'' required people to state directly their preferences between life with each complication versus death, 49\\% still chose the uncomplicated People's fear of complications leads them to ignore important differences between treatments. This tendency appears remarkably resistant to debiasing approaches and likely leads patients to make healthcare decisions that are inconsistent %Background: Imagine that you have just received a colon cancer diagnosis %and need to choose between two different surgical treatments. One %surgery, the ``complicated surgery,'' has a lower mortality rate (16\\% %vs. 20\\% but compared to the other surgery, the ``uncomplicated %surgery,'' also carries an additional 1\\% risk of each of four serious %complications
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2012-07-30
... related to the evaluation of impacts of interstate transport of air pollutants. In this action, EPA is... the 2011 Transport Rule (also known as the ``Cross- State Air Pollution Rule'' or ``CSAPR'').\\5\\ In...\\ Within that submittal, Appendix B, ``Clean Air Act Section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)-- Interstate Transport...
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2013-03-12
... Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; New Mexico; Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate Matter... (August 8, 2011, 76 FR 48208). The Transport Rule was intended to replace the earlier Clean Air Interstate..., 2005); and Transport Rule or Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, 76 FR 48208 (August 8, 2011). \\4\\ CAIR...
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The impact of data integrity on decision making in early lead discovery
Beck, Bernd; Seeliger, Daniel; Kriegl, Jan M.
2015-09-01
Data driven decision making is a key element of today's pharmaceutical research, including early drug discovery. It comprises questions like which target to pursue, which chemical series to pursue, which compound to make next, or which compound to select for advanced profiling and promotion to pre-clinical development. In the following paper we will exemplify how data integrity, i.e. the context data is generated in and auxiliary information that is provided for individual result records, can influence decision making in early lead discovery programs. In addition we will describe some approaches which we pursue at Boehringer Ingelheim to reduce the risk for getting misguided.
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Trends and fluctuations in the severity of interstate wars
Clauset, Aaron
2018-01-01
Since 1945, there have been relatively few large interstate wars, especially compared to the preceding 30 years, which included both World Wars. This pattern, sometimes called the long peace, is highly controversial. Does it represent an enduring trend caused by a genuine change in the underlying conflict-generating processes? Or is it consistent with a highly variable but otherwise stable system of conflict? Using the empirical distributions of interstate war sizes and onset times from 1823 to 2003, we parameterize stationary models of conflict generation that can distinguish trends from statistical fluctuations in the statistics of war. These models indicate that both the long peace and the period of great violence that preceded it are not statistically uncommon patterns in realistic but stationary conflict time series. This fact does not detract from the importance of the long peace or the proposed mechanisms that explain it. However, the models indicate that the postwar pattern of peace would need to endure at least another 100 to 140 years to become a statistically significant trend. This fact places an implicit upper bound on the magnitude of any change in the true likelihood of a large war after the end of the Second World War. The historical patterns of war thus seem to imply that the long peace may be substantially more fragile than proponents believe, despite recent efforts to identify mechanisms that reduce the likelihood of interstate wars. PMID:29507877
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Regional-interstate site-review procedure: low-level radioactive waste disposal facility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1983-09-01
The attributes of the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) enable it to view federal/state interface problem areas from a perspective that can be uniquely constructive. The board is sensitive to the interests of both federal and state levels of government since it is composed of member states with common regional interests and confirmed by federal legislative action. It has been most effective when exercising a leadership role in finding procedures and practices that use the resources of both levels of government that are mutually supportive and nonduplicative. SSEB began an NRC-funded effort in that direction related to nuclear power plant siting in June 1975, entitled Regional-Interstate Nuclear Facility Siting Procedure Demonstration Project. SSEB approached the problem by working with interested states to analyze various elements of the licensing process, in particular with NEPA review procedures for interstate coordination where potential impacts extend beyond a single state and where the facility serves an interstate or regional need. SSEB also served as a catalyst in the development of a region-wide nuclear facility siting procedure that could improve the effectiveness and timeliness of the regulatory process
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78 FR 63872 - Turtles Intrastate and Interstate Requirements
2013-10-25
... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration 21 CFR Part 1240 [Docket No. FDA-2013-N-0639] Turtles Intrastate and Interstate Requirements Correction In rule document 2013-17751 appearing on pages 44878-44881 in the issue of July 25, 2013, make the following correction: On page 44879...
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Results of the radiological survey at Exit 4, Interstate 90, Albany, New York (AL212)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marley, J.L.; Carrier, R.F.
1988-02-01
A number of properties in the Albany/Colonie area have been identified as being potentially contaminated with uranium originating from the former National Lead Company's uranium forming plant in Colonie, New York. The property at Exit 4 between Yardboro Avenue and Interstate 90 in Albany, New York was the subject of a radiological investigation initiated April 27, 1987. The area of survey of the property of the State of New York was the north side of the right-of-way of Interstate 90 (I-90) at Exit 4 (the Slingerlands exit) from the fence along the south side of Yardboro Avenue to the berm of the west-bound lanes of I-90. The survey, starting at the I-90 bridge over Central Avenue continued west for approximately 570 m. The width of the area ranged from /approximately/10 m to 195 m. To perform the survey, a network of sectors forming a grid was established, beginning with a series of basing points measured at /approximately/23-m intervals at the fence along Yardboro Avenue. Sectors were set by projection of lines from the basing points, perpendicular to the fence, to the berm of I-90. Then parallel lines at 23-m intervals were set. 12 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs
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78 FR 44915 - Turtles Intrastate and Interstate Requirements
2013-07-25
.... FDA-2013-N-0639] Turtles Intrastate and Interstate Requirements AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration... turtle eggs and live turtles with a carapace length of less than 4 inches to remove procedures for... viable turtle eggs and turtles with a carapace length of less than 4 inches to stop the spread of turtle...
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78 FR 44878 - Turtles Intrastate and Interstate Requirements
2013-07-25
.... FDA-2013-N-0639] Turtles Intrastate and Interstate Requirements AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration... turtle eggs and live turtles with a carapace length of less than 4 inches to remove procedures for... 21 CFR 1240.62 on May 23, 1975 (40 FR 22543), that ban the sale and distribution of viable turtle...
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Integration of capacity, pricing, and lead-time decisions in a decentralized supply chain
Zhu, Stuart X.
We consider a decentralized supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer facing price- and lead-time-sensitive demand. The decision process is modelled by a Stackelberg game where the supplier, as a leader, determines the capacity and the wholesale price, and the retailer, as a follower,
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33 CFR 329.6 - Interstate or foreign commerce.
2010-07-01
... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interstate or foreign commerce... commerce. (a) Nature of commerce: type, means, and extent of use. The types of commercial use of a waterway... transportation of commerce which is the determinative factor, and not the time, extent or manner of that use. As...
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18 CFR 284.265 - Cost recovery by interstate pipeline.
2010-04-01
... 1978 AND RELATED AUTHORITIES Emergency Natural Gas Sale, Transportation, and Exchange Transactions... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Cost recovery by interstate pipeline. 284.265 Section 284.265 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY...
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2011-06-10
...] Notice of Request for Extension of Approval of an Information Collection; Interstate Movement of Sheep... movement of sheep and goats to control the spread of scrapie. DATES: We will consider all comments that we... . FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For information on regulations for the interstate movement of sheep...
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2010-10-20
... interstate commerce. United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) commented that, as an interstate carrier operating in... Registration Plan under section 31704 [of title 49, United States Code]; (2) Under the International Fuel Tax Agreement under section 31705 [of title 49, United States Code]; (3) Under a State law regarding motor...
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2010-01-01
... official Johne's disease test during interstate movement. 80.4 Section 80.4 Animals and Animal Products... animals positive to an official Johne's disease test during interstate movement. Animals that are positive... from the animals positive to an official Johne's disease test to the healthy animals in the vehicle. ...
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Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. H. Ramos
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.
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23 CFR 661.49 - Can IRRBP funds be spent on Interstate, State Highway, and Toll Road IRR bridges?
2010-04-01
..., and Toll Road IRR bridges? 661.49 Section 661.49 Highways FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING AND TRAFFIC OPERATIONS INDIAN RESERVATION ROAD BRIDGE PROGRAM § 661.49 Can IRRBP funds be spent on Interstate, State Highway, and Toll Road IRR bridges? Yes. Interstate...
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Statistics of interstate natural gas pipeline companies, 1991
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1993-01-01
This report, presents financial and operating information of all major interstate natural gas pipeline companies that operated in the United States during 1991. This report is used by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), State utility commissions, other government agencies, and the general public. The information is taken from FERC Form 2, ''Annual Report of Major Natural Gas Companies,'' as filed with FERC
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78 FR 12621 - Control of Communicable Diseases: Interstate; Scope and Definitions
2013-02-25
... Control of Communicable Diseases: Interstate; Scope and Definitions AGENCY: Centers for Disease Control... effective date of Direct Final Rule. SUMMARY: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) within... Disease [[Page 12622
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2010-01-01
... Interstate movement of regulated articles from a quarantined area for experimental or scientific purposes. A... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interstate movement of regulated articles from a quarantined area for experimental or scientific purposes. 301.75-9 Section 301.75-9 Agriculture Regulations of...
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Longitudinal review of state-level accident statistics for carriers of interstate freight
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saricks, C.; Kvitek, T.
1994-03-01
State-level accident rates by mode of freight transport have been developed and refined for application to the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) environmental mitigation program, which may involve large-quantity shipments of hazardous and mixed wastes from DOE facilities. These rates reflect multi-year data for interstate-registered highway earners, American Association of Railroads member carriers, and coastal and internal waterway barge traffic. Adjustments have been made to account for the share of highway combination-truck traffic actually attributable to interstate-registered carriers and for duplicate or otherwise inaccurate entries in the public-use accident data files used. State-to-state variation in rates is discussed, as is the stability of rates over time. Computed highway rates have been verified with actual carriers of high- and low-level nuclear materials, and the most recent truck accident data have been used, to ensure that the results are of the correct order of magnitude. Study conclusions suggest that DOE use the computed rates for the three modes until (1) improved estimation techniques for highway combination-truck miles by state become available; (2) continued evolution of the railroad industry significantly increases the consolidation of interstate rail traffic onto fewer high-capacity trunk lines; or (3) a large-scale off-site waste shipment campaign is imminent
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9 CFR 77.35 - Interstate movement from accredited herds.
2010-01-01
... accredited herd. If a group of captive cervids from an accredited herd is being moved interstate together to... cervids is being moved together, the entire group must be isolated from all other livestock during the... from isolation; or (3) If the captive cervid to be added is not being moved directly from a classified...
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9 CFR 77.37 - Interstate movement from monitored herds.
2010-01-01
... being moved interstate together to the same destination, all captive cervids in the group may be moved... to the premises of the monitored herd; or (3) If the captive cervid to be added is not being moved... captive cervids is being moved together, the entire group must be isolated from all other animals during...
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Decision Making Model for Ro-Ro Short Sea Shipping Operations in Archipelagic Southeast Asia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aminuddin Md Arof
2018-03-01
Full Text Available This study aims to develop a decision-making model for determining the potential of interstate Ro-Ro Short Sea Shipping (SSS operations in Archipelagic Southeast Asia (ASEA. It is expected to assist SSS authorities, private investors and financial institutions focus their limited resources on several key factors that could ensure the success of their undertakings. This study will begin with identifying the relevant factors that have contributed towards successful SSS operations through a process of literature review. Subsequently, a Delphi survey was conducted with sub-regional experts to identify any new determinants and assess their opinions on the relative importance of all the determinants involved. Finally the weightages of the determinants were ascertained through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Twenty expert respondents from Brunei Darussalam. Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines were involved in the Delphi survey while 18 expert respondents continue to participate in the AHP survey. This study concludes with the development of a decision-making model that was tested on three interstate Ro-Ro SSS routes within the ASEA sub-region. Keywords: Archipelagic Southeast Asia, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP, ASEAN, Delphi, Ro-Ro, Short Sea Shipping (SSS
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40 CFR 52.1393 - Interstate Transport Declaration for the 1997 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS.
2010-07-01
... Adoption package. In a May 10, 2007 e-mail to Domenico Mastrangelo, EPA, Debra Wolfe, of the Montana... 40 Protection of Environment 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interstate Transport Declaration for... (CONTINUED) Montana § 52.1393 Interstate Transport Declaration for the 1997 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS. The...
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18 CFR 284.266 - Rates and charges for interstate pipelines.
2010-04-01
... 1978 AND RELATED AUTHORITIES Emergency Natural Gas Sale, Transportation, and Exchange Transactions... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Rates and charges for interstate pipelines. 284.266 Section 284.266 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY...
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2010-01-01
... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interstate movement of swine semen and... ANIMALS (INCLUDING POULTRY) AND ANIMAL PRODUCTS PSEUDORABIES § 85.10 Interstate movement of swine semen and swine embryos for insemination of or implantation into swine. Swine semen and swine embryos moved...
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Katyaini, Suparana; Barua, Anamika
2017-08-01
India is the largest global freshwater user despite being highly water scarce. Agriculture is largest consumer of water and is most affected by water scarcity. Water scarcity is a persistent challenge in India, due to a gap in science and policy spheres. Virtual Water (VW) flows concept to mitigate water scarcity is at the science-policy interface. The paper aims to address the gap in VW research in India by first analyzing the interstate VW-flows embedded in food grains, and then linking these VW-flows with the water scarcity situation in the states, and elements of state and national water policies for the postreforms, and recovery periods of India's agriculture. There were net water savings (WS) of 207.5 PL during 1996-2014, indicating sustainable flows at the national level. WS increased from 11.2 TL/yr (1996-2005) to 25931.7 TL/yr (2005-2014), with the increase in interstate movement of food grains, and yield. However, unsustainable flows are seen at subnational scale, as VW-flows are from highly water-scarce states in North to highly water-scarce states in West and South. These flows are causing a concentration of water scarcity in water-scarce zones/states. Net VW imports were found to be driven by larger population and net VW exports by arable land. Further, the absence of state water policy cripples water management. Therefore, the paper argues that there is a need to rethink policy decisions on agriculture at the national and state level by internalizing water as a factor of production, through VW research.
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An Exploratory Note on Interstate Living-Cost Differentials
Cebula, Richard
1985-01-01
This exploratory study seeks to identify factors that systematically influence interstate living-cost differentials. Living costs refer to the average cost of living for a four-person family in each of the 50 states. For the year 1977, the living cost level is found to be an increasing function of population density, average income, and the degree of urbanization, while being a decreasing function of the presence of right-to-work laws.
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78 FR 12702 - Control of Communicable Diseases: Interstate; Scope and Definitions
2013-02-25
... Control of Communicable Diseases: Interstate; Scope and Definitions AGENCY: Centers for Disease Control... rulemaking; withdrawal. SUMMARY: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) within the Department... Rulemaking (NPRM) that solicited public comment on updates to the Scope and Definitions for its regulations...
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16 CFR 1061.9 - Information about the effect on interstate commerce.
2010-01-01
... the anticipated effect of the requirement on the availability or continued marketing of the product. (3) Any other information indicating the economic impact of compliance with the State or local... manufacturers, distributors, or retailers of the product) showing advertising in the interstate market...
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77 FR 75936 - Control of Communicable Diseases: Interstate; Scope and Definitions
2012-12-26
... add more current medical terminology where appropriate. HHS/CDC has determined that this NPRM is... proposing to update the definitions for interstate quarantine regulations to reflect modern terminology and..., under section 70.1, to reflect modern terminology and plain language commonly used by private sector...
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77 FR 75880 - Control of Communicable Diseases: Interstate; Scope and Definitions
2012-12-26
... definitions related to the control of communicable diseases and add more current medical terminology where... definitions for interstate quarantine regulations to reflect modern terminology and plain language used by..., under section 70.1, to reflect modern terminology and plain language commonly used by private sector...
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12 CFR 211.22 - Interstate banking operations of foreign banking organizations.
2010-01-01
... 12 Banks and Banking 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interstate banking operations of foreign banking organizations. 211.22 Section 211.22 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM INTERNATIONAL BANKING OPERATIONS (REGULATION K) Foreign Banking...
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2010-01-01
... § 85.1, states the identification of the farm of origin of each swine being moved by a means of... pseudorabies shall only be moved interstate in accordance with the following provisions: (a) Movement for... pseudorabies may be moved interstate for slaughter without further restriction under this part directly to a...
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2010-01-01
... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interstate movement of dead poultry or other animals prohibited in same car with live poultry or other animals. 71.17 Section 71.17 Animals and... TRANSPORTATION OF ANIMALS (INCLUDING POULTRY) AND ANIMAL PRODUCTS GENERAL PROVISIONS § 71.17 Interstate movement...
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2013-04-16
... DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives [OMB Number 1140-0004] Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comments Requested: Interstate Firearms Shipment Report of Theft/Loss Correction In notice document 2013-06779, appearing on page 18364 in the...
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Case: The Ethics and Economics of Expanding Interstate 69 in Indiana.
Clapp-Itnyre, Alisa
2000-01-01
Presents and discusses a case used in a business communication class that centers on an interstate highway extension in southern Indiana. Describes the rationale for teaching the case, and student responses. Notes that, in confronting these issues, students learn to see that facts yield to different interpretations based on differing perspectives…
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77 FR 10415 - Standards for Business Practices for Interstate Natural Gas Pipelines
2012-02-22
...] Standards for Business Practices for Interstate Natural Gas Pipelines AGENCY: Federal Energy Regulatory... American Energy Standards Board (NAESB) applicable to natural gas pipelines.\\1\\ The Commission also... Quadrant (WGQ) of the North American Energy Standards Board (NAESB) applicable to natural gas pipelines...
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Interstate Electrification Improvement Project
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Puckette, Margaret [Shorepower Technologies, Hillsboro, OR (United States); Kim, Jeff [Shorepower Technologies, Hillsboro, OR (United States)
2015-07-01
The Interstate Electrification Improvement Project, publicly known as the Shorepower Truck Electrification Project (STEP), started in May 2011 and ended in March 2015. The project grant was awarded by the Department of Energy’s Vehicles Technology Office in the amount of $22.2 million. It had three overarching missions: 1. Reduce the idling of Class 8 tractors when parked at truck stops, to reduce diesel fuel consumption and thus U.S. dependence on foreign petroleum; 2. Stimulate job creation and economic activity as part of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009; 3. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from diesel combustion and the carbon footprint of the truck transportation industry. The project design was straightforward. First, build fifty Truck Stop Electrification (TSE) facilities in truck stop parking lots across the country so trucks could plug-in to 110V, 220V, or 480VAC, and shut down the engine instead of idling. These facilities were strategically located at fifty truck stops along major U.S. Interstates with heavy truck traffic. Approximately 1,350 connection points were installed, including 150 high-voltage electric standby Transport Refrigeration Unit (eTRU) plugs--eTRUs are capable of plugging in to shore power1 to cool the refrigerated trailer for loads such as produce, meats and ice cream. Second, the project provided financial incentives on idle reduction equipment to 5,000 trucks in the form of rebates, to install equipment compatible with shore power. This equipment enables drivers to shut down the main engine when parked, to heat or cool their cab, charge batteries, or use other household appliances without idling—a common practice that uses approximately 1 gallon of diesel per hour. The rebate recipients were intended to be the first fleets to plug into Shorepower to save diesel fuel and ensure there is significant population of shore power capable trucks. This two part project was designed to complement each other by
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The Interstate Migration of U.S. Immigrants: Individual and Contextual Determinants.
Gurak, Douglas T.; Kritz, Mary M.
2000-01-01
Analysis of the 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample indicates that interstate migration during 1985-90 was less common for immigrant men than for non-Hispanic, White, native-born men. This difference was most strongly related to human capital factors (age, education, self-employment), followed by social capital factors (nativity group concentration)…
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77 FR 28331 - Standards for Business Practices for Interstate Natural Gas Pipelines
2012-05-14
...] Standards for Business Practices for Interstate Natural Gas Pipelines AGENCY: Federal Energy Regulatory...) applicable to natural gas pipelines. The Commission, however, did not propose to adopt two standards it found... Wholesale Gas Quadrant of the North American Energy Standards Board (NAESB) applicable to natural gas...
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77 FR 43711 - Standards for Business Practices of Interstate Natural Gas Pipelines
2012-07-26
...; Order No. 587-V] Standards for Business Practices of Interstate Natural Gas Pipelines AGENCY: Federal... North American Energy Standards Board (NAESB) applicable to natural gas pipelines. In addition, based on... (WGQ) of the North American Energy Standards Board (NAESB) applicable to natural gas pipelines...
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Children's Lead Exposure: A Multimedia Modeling Analysis to Guide Public Health Decision-Making.
Zartarian, Valerie; Xue, Jianping; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Brown, James
2017-09-12
Drinking water and other sources for lead are the subject of public health concerns around the Flint, Michigan, drinking water and East Chicago, Indiana, lead in soil crises. In 2015, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s National Drinking Water Advisory Council (NDWAC) recommended establishment of a "health-based, household action level" for lead in drinking water based on children's exposure. The primary objective was to develop a coupled exposure-dose modeling approach that can be used to determine what drinking water lead concentrations keep children's blood lead levels (BLLs) below specified values, considering exposures from water, soil, dust, food, and air. Related objectives were to evaluate the coupled model estimates using real-world blood lead data, to quantify relative contributions by the various media, and to identify key model inputs. A modeling approach using the EPA's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS)-Multimedia and Integrated Exposure Uptake and Biokinetic (IEUBK) models was developed using available data. This analysis for the U.S. population of young children probabilistically simulated multimedia exposures and estimated relative contributions of media to BLLs across all population percentiles for several age groups. Modeled BLLs compared well with nationally representative BLLs (0-23% relative error). Analyses revealed relative importance of soil and dust ingestion exposure pathways and associated Pb intake rates; water ingestion was also a main pathway, especially for infants. This methodology advances scientific understanding of the relationship between lead concentrations in drinking water and BLLs in children. It can guide national health-based benchmarks for lead and related community public health decisions. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1605.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The INTERSTATES layer contains the Interstate Highway network, using NAVTEQ Functional Class=1 for United States and Canada. This 5 layer SDC dataset represents a...
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Cairns, Andrew W; Bond, Raymond R; Finlay, Dewar D; Guldenring, Daniel; Badilini, Fabio; Libretti, Guido; Peace, Aaron J; Leslie, Stephen J
The 12-lead Electrocardiogram (ECG) has been used to detect cardiac abnormalities in the same format for more than 70years. However, due to the complex nature of 12-lead ECG interpretation, there is a significant cognitive workload required from the interpreter. This complexity in ECG interpretation often leads to errors in diagnosis and subsequent treatment. We have previously reported on the development of an ECG interpretation support system designed to augment the human interpretation process. This computerised decision support system has been named 'Interactive Progressive based Interpretation' (IPI). In this study, a decision support algorithm was built into the IPI system to suggest potential diagnoses based on the interpreter's annotations of the 12-lead ECG. We hypothesise semi-automatic interpretation using a digital assistant can be an optimal man-machine model for ECG interpretation. To improve interpretation accuracy and reduce missed co-abnormalities. The Differential Diagnoses Algorithm (DDA) was developed using web technologies where diagnostic ECG criteria are defined in an open storage format, Javascript Object Notation (JSON), which is queried using a rule-based reasoning algorithm to suggest diagnoses. To test our hypothesis, a counterbalanced trial was designed where subjects interpreted ECGs using the conventional approach and using the IPI+DDA approach. A total of 375 interpretations were collected. The IPI+DDA approach was shown to improve diagnostic accuracy by 8.7% (although not statistically significant, p-value=0.1852), the IPI+DDA suggested the correct interpretation more often than the human interpreter in 7/10 cases (varying statistical significance). Human interpretation accuracy increased to 70% when seven suggestions were generated. Although results were not found to be statistically significant, we found; 1) our decision support tool increased the number of correct interpretations, 2) the DDA algorithm suggested the correct
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47 CFR 61.26 - Tariffing of competitive interstate switched exchange access services.
2010-10-01
... switched exchange access services that prices those services above the higher of: (1) The rate charged for... equivalent of the ILEC interstate exchange access services typically associated with following rate elements... switched exchange access services shall mean the composite, per-minute rate for these services, including...
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49 CFR 17.11 - What are the Secretary's obligations in interstate situations?
2010-10-01
... 49 Transportation 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false What are the Secretary's obligations in interstate situations? 17.11 Section 17.11 Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVIEW OF DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROGRAMS AND ACTIVITIES § 17.11 What are the Secretary's...
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Dambach, Donna M; Misner, Dinah; Brock, Mathew; Fullerton, Aaron; Proctor, William; Maher, Jonathan; Lee, Dong; Ford, Kevin; Diaz, Dolores
2016-04-18
Discovery toxicology focuses on the identification of the most promising drug candidates through the development and implementation of lead optimization strategies and hypothesis-driven investigation of issues that enable rational and informed decision-making. The major goals are to [a] identify and progress the drug candidate with the best overall drug safety profile for a therapeutic area, [b] remove the most toxic drugs from the portfolio prior to entry into humans to reduce clinical attrition due to toxicity, and [c] establish a well-characterized hazard and translational risk profile to enable clinical trial designs. This is accomplished through a framework that balances the multiple considerations to identify a drug candidate with the overall best drug characteristics and provides a cogent understanding of mechanisms of toxicity. The framework components include establishing a target candidate profile for each program that defines the qualities of a successful candidate based on the intended therapeutic area, including the risk tolerance for liabilities; evaluating potential liabilities that may result from engaging the therapeutic target (pharmacology-mediated or on-target) and that are chemical structure-mediated (off-target); and characterizing identified liabilities. Lead optimization and investigation relies upon the integrated use of a variety of technologies and models (in silico, in vitro, and in vivo) that have achieved a sufficient level of qualification or validation to provide confidence in their use. We describe the strategic applications of various nonclinical models (established and new) for a holistic and integrated risk assessment that is used for rational decision-making. While this review focuses on strategies for small molecules, the overall concepts, approaches, and technologies are generally applicable to biotherapeutics.
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Crowdsourcing the Measurement of Interstate Conflict.
D'Orazio, Vito; Kenwick, Michael; Lane, Matthew; Palmer, Glenn; Reitter, David
2016-01-01
Much of the data used to measure conflict is extracted from news reports. This is typically accomplished using either expert coders to quantify the relevant information or machine coders to automatically extract data from documents. Although expert coding is costly, it produces quality data. Machine coding is fast and inexpensive, but the data are noisy. To diminish the severity of this tradeoff, we introduce a method for analyzing news documents that uses crowdsourcing, supplemented with computational approaches. The new method is tested on documents about Militarized Interstate Disputes, and its accuracy ranges between about 68 and 76 percent. This is shown to be a considerable improvement over automated coding, and to cost less and be much faster than expert coding.
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78 FR 66841 - Turtles Intrastate and Interstate Requirements; Confirmation of Effective Date
2013-11-07
... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration 21 CFR Part 1240 [Docket No. FDA-2013-N-0639] Turtles Intrastate and Interstate Requirements; Confirmation of Effective Date AGENCY... turtle eggs and live turtles with a carapace length of less than 4 inches to remove procedures for...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akisato Suzuki
2015-06-01
Full Text Available In the literature on nuclear proliferation, some argue that further proliferation decreases interstate conflict, some say that it increases interstate conflict, and others indicate a non-linear relationship between these two factors. However, there has been no systematic empirical investigation on the relationship between nuclear proliferation and a propensity for conflict at the interstate–systemic level. To fill this gap, the current paper uses the machine learning method Random Forests, which can investigate complex non-linear relationships between dependent and independent variables, and which can identify important regressors from a group of all potential regressors in explaining the relationship between nuclear proliferation and the propensity for conflict. The results indicate that, on average, a larger number of nuclear states decrease the systemic propensity for interstate conflict, while the emergence of new nuclear states does not have an important effect. This paper also notes, however, that scholars should investigate other risks of proliferation to assess whether nuclear proliferation is better or worse for international peace and security in general.
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Generalized interferometry - I: theory for interstation correlations
Fichtner, Andreas; Stehly, Laurent; Ermert, Laura; Boehm, Christian
2017-02-01
We develop a general theory for interferometry by correlation that (i) properly accounts for heterogeneously distributed sources of continuous or transient nature, (ii) fully incorporates any type of linear and nonlinear processing, such as one-bit normalization, spectral whitening and phase-weighted stacking, (iii) operates for any type of medium, including 3-D elastic, heterogeneous and attenuating media, (iv) enables the exploitation of complete correlation waveforms, including seemingly unphysical arrivals, and (v) unifies the earthquake-based two-station method and ambient noise correlations. Our central theme is not to equate interferometry with Green function retrieval, and to extract information directly from processed interstation correlations, regardless of their relation to the Green function. We demonstrate that processing transforms the actual wavefield sources and actual wave propagation physics into effective sources and effective wave propagation. This transformation is uniquely determined by the processing applied to the observed data, and can be easily computed. The effective forward model, that links effective sources and propagation to synthetic interstation correlations, may not be perfect. A forward modelling error, induced by processing, describes the extent to which processed correlations can actually be interpreted as proper correlations, that is, as resulting from some effective source and some effective wave propagation. The magnitude of the forward modelling error is controlled by the processing scheme and the temporal variability of the sources. Applying adjoint techniques to the effective forward model, we derive finite-frequency Fréchet kernels for the sources of the wavefield and Earth structure, that should be inverted jointly. The structure kernels depend on the sources of the wavefield and the processing scheme applied to the raw data. Therefore, both must be taken into account correctly in order to make accurate inferences on
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Oh-Descher, Hanna; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ferrari, Silvia; Sommer, Marc A; Egner, Tobias
2017-11-15
Real-life decision-making often involves combining multiple probabilistic sources of information under finite time and cognitive resources. To mitigate these pressures, people "satisfice", foregoing a full evaluation of all available evidence to focus on a subset of cues that allow for fast and "good-enough" decisions. Although this form of decision-making likely mediates many of our everyday choices, very little is known about the way in which the neural encoding of cue information changes when we satisfice under time pressure. Here, we combined human functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with a probabilistic classification task to characterize neural substrates of multi-cue decision-making under low (1500 ms) and high (500 ms) time pressure. Using variational Bayesian inference, we analyzed participants' choices to track and quantify cue usage under each experimental condition, which was then applied to model the fMRI data. Under low time pressure, participants performed near-optimally, appropriately integrating all available cues to guide choices. Both cortical (prefrontal and parietal cortex) and subcortical (hippocampal and striatal) regions encoded individual cue weights, and activity linearly tracked trial-by-trial variations in the amount of evidence and decision uncertainty. Under increased time pressure, participants adaptively shifted to using a satisficing strategy by discounting the least informative cue in their decision process. This strategic change in decision-making was associated with an increased involvement of the dopaminergic midbrain, striatum, thalamus, and cerebellum in representing and integrating cue values. We conclude that satisficing the probabilistic inference process under time pressure leads to a cortical-to-subcortical shift in the neural drivers of decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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2012-08-14
..., direct final rule concerning household goods consumer protection. The direct final rule amended the... No. FMCSA-2012-0119] RIN 2126-AB52 Transportation of Household Goods in Interstate Commerce; Consumer Protection Regulations AGENCY: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), DOT. ACTION: Direct final...
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9 CFR 79.2 - Identification of sheep and goats in interstate commerce.
2010-01-01
..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE INTERSTATE TRANSPORTATION OF ANIMALS (INCLUDING POULTRY) AND ANIMAL PRODUCTS... identified to its flock of origin and, for an animal born after January 1, 2002, to its flock of birth, by... without identification to flock of birth until June 1, 2003, and animals that cannot be identified to...
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Tosun, Tuğçe; Berkay, Dilara; Sack, Alexander T; Çakmak, Yusuf Ö; Balcı, Fuat
2017-08-01
Decisions are made based on the integration of available evidence. The noise in evidence accumulation leads to a particular speed-accuracy tradeoff in decision-making, which can be modulated and optimized by adaptive decision threshold setting. Given the effect of pre-SMA activity on striatal excitability, we hypothesized that the inhibition of pre-SMA would lead to higher decision thresholds and an increased accuracy bias. We used offline continuous theta burst stimulation to assess the effect of transient inhibition of the right pre-SMA on the decision processes in a free-response two-alternative forced-choice task within the drift diffusion model framework. Participants became more cautious and set higher decision thresholds following right pre-SMA inhibition compared with inhibition of the control site (vertex). Increased decision thresholds were accompanied by an accuracy bias with no effects on post-error choice behavior. Participants also exhibited higher drift rates as a result of pre-SMA inhibition compared with the vertex inhibition. These results, in line with the striatal theory of speed-accuracy tradeoff, provide evidence for the functional role of pre-SMA activity in decision threshold modulation. Our results also suggest that pre-SMA might be a part of the brain network associated with the sensory evidence integration.
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7 CFR 301.52 - Quarantine; restriction on interstate movement of specified regulated articles.
2010-01-01
... (Continued) ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE DOMESTIC QUARANTINE NOTICES... Texas. (b) Regulated articles. No common carrier or other person shall move interstate from any... articles: (1) Cotton and wild cotton, including all parts of these plants. (2) Seed cotton. (3) Cottonseed...
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2012-08-27
... waiver of receipt of printed copies of consumer protection materials. The direct final rule harmonized... receipt of the consumer protection publications ``Your Rights and Responsibilities When You Move,'' and... No. FMCSA-2011-0313] RIN 2126-AB41 Transportation of Household Goods in Interstate Commerce; Consumer...
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Decision Making Under Uncertainty
2010-11-01
A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions
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28 CFR 30.11 - What are the Attorney General's obligations in interstate situations?
2010-07-01
... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What are the Attorney General's... INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVIEW OF DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE PROGRAMS AND ACTIVITIES § 30.11 What are the Attorney General's obligations in interstate situations? (a) The Attorney General is responsible for: (1) Identifying proposed...
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47 CFR 54.902 - Calculation of Interstate Common Line Support for transferred exchanges.
2010-10-01
... filed pursuant to § 54.903(a)(4) shall reflect the transfer of exchanges. All post-transaction... transfer of exchanges. All post-transaction Interstate Common Line Support shall be subject to true up by... for transferred exchanges. 54.902 Section 54.902 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION...
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Kaufman, Elinore J; Morrison, Christopher N; Branas, Charles C; Wiebe, Douglas J
2018-03-05
Firearm laws in one state may be associated with increased firearm death rates from homicide and suicide in neighboring states are uncertain. To determine whether counties located closer to states with lenient firearm policies have higher firearm death rates. This cross-sectional study of firearm death rates by county for January 2010 to December 2014 examined data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for firearm suicide and homicide decedents for 3108 counties in the 48 contiguous states of the United States. Each county was assigned 2 scores, a state policy score (range, 0-12) based on the strength of its state firearm laws, and an interstate policy score (range, -1.33 to 8.31) based on the sum of population-weighted and distance-decayed policy scores for all other states. Counties were divided into those with low, medium, and high home state and interstate policy scores. County-level rates of firearm, nonfirearm, and total homicide and suicide. With multilevel Bayesian spatial Poisson models, we generated incidence rate ratios (IRR) comparing incidence rates between each group of counties and the reference group, counties with high home state and high interstate policy scores. Stronger firearm laws in a state were associated with lower firearm suicide rates and lower overall suicide rates regardless of the strength of the other states' laws. Counties with low state scores had the highest rates of firearm suicide. Rates were similar across levels of interstate policy score (low: IRR, 1.34; 95% credible interval [CI], 1.11-1.65; medium: IRR, 1.36, (95% CI, 1.15-1.65; and high: IRR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.20-1.73). Counties with low state and low or medium interstate policy scores had the highest rates of firearm homicide. Counties with low home state and interstate scores had higher firearm homicide rates (IRR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.02-1.88) and overall homicide rates (IRR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.03-1.67). Counties in states with low firearm policy scores had lower
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2011-12-29
... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 40 CFR Part 52 [EPA-R06-OAR-2007-0314; FRL-9613-2] Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Oklahoma; Interstate Transport of Pollution AGENCY: Environmental...)(2).) List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52 Air pollution control, Environmental protection...
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76 FR 24713 - Cooperative Inspection Programs: Interstate Shipment of Meat and Poultry Products
2011-05-02
... amenable species, such as processing game meat or for busy times in their retail shops around holidays. The... Service 9 CFR Parts 321, 332, and 381 Cooperative Inspection Programs: Interstate Shipment of Meat and... Shipment of Meat and Poultry Products AGENCY: Food Safety and Inspection Service, USDA. ACTION: Final rule...
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7 CFR 301.81-4 - Interstate movement of regulated articles from quarantined areas.
2010-01-01
... regulated article is a soil sample being moved to a laboratory approved by the Administrator 3 to process... moving regulated articles, and to inspect the articles being moved and the means of conveyance. Articles... quarantined areas. (a) Any regulated article may be moved interstate from a quarantined area into or through...
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2010-09-13
... Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Idaho; Interstate Transport of Pollution AGENCY: Environmental Protection... purpose of the SIP is to provide the air pollution regulations, control strategies, and other means or... effect' resulting from an inversion that has a stagnant air pollution mass surrounded by the Oquirrh...
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River meander modeling of the Wabash River near the Interstate 64 Bridge near Grayville, Illinois
Lant, Jeremiah G.; Boldt, Justin A.
2018-01-16
Natural river channels continually evolve and change shape over time. As a result, channel evolution or migration can cause problems for bridge structures that are fixed in the flood plain. A once-stable bridge structure that was uninfluenced by a river’s shape could be encroached upon by a migrating river channel. The potential effect of the actively meandering Wabash River on the Interstate 64 Bridge at the border with Indiana near Grayville, Illinois, was studied using a river migration model called RVR Meander. RVR Meander is a toolbox that can be used to model river channel meander migration with physically based bank erosion methods. This study assesses the Wabash River meandering processes through predictive modeling of natural meandering over the next 100 years, climate change effects through increased river flows, and bank protection measures near the Interstate 64 Bridge.
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18 CFR 284.221 - General rule; transportation by interstate pipelines on behalf of others.
2010-04-01
... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false General rule; transportation by interstate pipelines on behalf of others. 284.221 Section 284.221 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OTHER REGULATIONS UNDER THE...
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2011-06-01
William Shakespeare , The Merchant of Venice A. INTRODUCTION Nations go to war for several reasons, among them disputes over interstate boundaries...PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vii TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ...6 II. CONCEPTUALIZING BORDER CONFLICT RESOLUTION ............................7 A. INTRODUCTION
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2010-01-01
... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Movement interstate; specification by the Deputy Administrator, Veterinary Services of treatment required when dipping facilities..., Veterinary Services of treatment required when dipping facilities unavailable. (a) Tick-infested cattle...
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How Exposure to ”Role Model” Projects Can Lead to Decisions for More Sustainable Infrastructure
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nora Harris
2016-01-01
Full Text Available A role model, whether an individual or a project, can inspire similar performance in others. This research examines such a phenomenon during the design process for more sustainable physical infrastructure. In this empirical study, engineering professionals (n = 54 were randomly assigned either a modified version of the Envision rating system for sustainable infrastructure, which was changed to include details from an exemplary role model project, or the current version of Envision, with no role model. Professionals given the role model version of Envision achieved on average 34% more points (SD = 27 than the control group (p = 0.001. A positive role model project appears to lead engineering professionals to higher goals for sustainability performance in their design decisions. This finding, and the corresponding line of interdisciplinary research, can be used in decision-structuring interventions, which are a relatively low-cost approach to support greater sustainability in physical infrastructure development.
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2011-04-12
... Information Collection: Comment Request; Interstate Land Sales Full Disclosure Requirements AGENCY: Office of... Sales, Housing and Urban Development, 451 7th Street, SW., Washington, DC 20410, telephone (202) 708... techniques or other forms of information technology, e.g., permitting electronic submission of responses...
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Colorado's Prospects for Interstate Commerce in Renewable Power
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hurlbut, D. J.
2009-12-01
Colorado has more renewable energy potential than it is ever likely to need for its own in-state electricity consumption. Such abundance may suggest an opportunity for the state to sell renewable power elsewhere, but Colorado faces considerable competition from other western states that may have better resources and easier access to key markets on the West Coast. This report examines factors that will be important to the development of interstate commerce for electricity generated from renewable resources. It examines market fundamentals in a regional context, and then looks at the implications for Colorado.
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2010-07-01
... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mobile (Alabama)-Pensacola-Panama City... QUALITY PLANNING PURPOSES Designation of Air Quality Control Regions § 81.68 Mobile (Alabama)-Pensacola-Panama City (Florida)-Southern Mississippi Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Mobile (Alabama...
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2013-07-09
... Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; New Mexico; Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate Matter... a State Implementation Plan (SIP) submittal from the State of New Mexico to address Clean Air Act (CAA or Act) requirements that prohibit air emissions which will contribute significantly to...
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Biogeochemical studies of lead isotopes near a smelter
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Landrigan, P.J.; Baker, E.L. Jr.; Earl, J.L.; Chow, T.J.
1975-01-01
Ninety-nine percent of 1 to 9 year-old children living within 1 mile of a primary lead smelter in Idaho were found to have whole blood lead levels equal to or greater than 40μg/100 ml, a level indicative of excess lead absorption. To define the sources of this lead, isotope ratios were determined in lead from human and environmental samples obtained near the smelter; determinations were performed using a 30-cm radius, solid-source mass spectrometer with an electron multiplier. The Idaho ore is a pre-Cambrian lead deposit with 206 Pb/ 204 Pb = 16.43, 206 Pb = 1.0543 and 206 Pb/ 208 Pb = 0.4518. An ingot smelted in 1974 showed isotope ratios of 206 Pb/ 204 Pb = 17.66, 206 Pb/ 207 Pb = 1.1312 and 206 Pb/ 208 Pb = 0.4694, indicating a mixture of ore sources. Three surface soil samples from within 2 miles of the smelter had lead ratios similar to those in the ingot. A fourth soil sample from beside an interstate highway 32 miles east of the smelter showed different ratios: 206 Pb/ 204 Pb = 18.47, 206 Pb/ 207 Pb = 1.1826 and 206 Pb/ 208 Pb = 0.4823. Aerosol samples collected from October 4, 1974, to February 1, 1975, near the smelter showed considerable variation in ratios; these variations resulted from smelting of ores from differing sources
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Child health in the workplace: the Supreme Court in Hammer v. Dagenhart (1918).
Berger, L R; Johansson, S R
1980-01-01
Exploitation of children in the labor force at the beginning of this century gave rise to a national campaign leading to congressional passage of the Keating-Owen Act in 1916. The act prohibited from interstate commerce goods produced in factories or mines that employed children who either were under fourteen years of age or who were under sixteen years of age and worked more than eight hours a day. Despite its popular support, the Act was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in Hammer v. Dagenhart (1918). The Court's decision involved several major issues: interpretation of the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments to the Constitution, freedom of contract, police power of the states, and the interstate commerce clause. Review of previous Court decisions suggests that the justices were on less than solid legal ground in reaching their decision. Examination of the historical context of the decision, however, suggests other factors that may have played a more important role than judicial precedents. The debate prompted by Hammer v. Dagenhart has much relevance to such current issues as young agricultural workers, sex discrimination in industry, and the powers of the federal government vis-a-vis states and individual citizens.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Manuel eBedia
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Dual system approaches of decision making examine the interaction between affective/intuitive and deliberative processes underlying value judgment. Decisions are arise from a combination of relatively explicit capabilities for abstract reasoning and relatively implicit evolved domain-general as well as learned domain-specific affective responses. One such approach, the somatic markers hypothesis (SMH, expresses these processes as a system of evolved primary emotions supplemented by associations between affect and experience that accrue over lifetime, or somatic markers (SMs. In this view, SMs are useful only if their local capability to predict the value of an action is above a baseline equal to the predictive capability of the combined rational and primary emotional subsystems. We argue that decision making has often been conceived of as a linear process: the effect of decision sequences is additive, local utility is cumulative, and there is no strong environmental feedback. This widespread assumption has consequences for answering questions regarding the relative weight between the systems and their interaction within a cognitive architecture. We introduce a mathematical formalization of the SMH and study it in situations of dynamic, nonlinear decision chains using a discrete-time stochastic model. We find, contrary to expectations, that decision making events can interact non-additively with the environment in apparently paradoxical ways. We find that primary emotions are represented globally over and above their local weight, showing a tendency for overcaution in situated decision chains. We also show that because they tend to counteract this trend, poorly attuned somatic markers that by themselves do not locally enhance decision making, can still produce an overall positive effect. This result has developmental and evolutionary implications since, by promoting exploratory behavior, SMs are beneficial even at early stages when experiential
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Helping decision makers frame, analyze, and implement decisions
Runge, Michael C.; McDonald-Madden, Eve
2018-01-01
All decisions have the same recognizable elements. Context, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and deliberation. Decision makers and analysts familiar with these elements can quickly see the underlying structure of a decision.There are only a small number of classes of decisions. These classes differ in the cognitive and scientific challenge they present to the decision maker; the ability to recognize the class of decision leads a decision maker to tools to aid in the analysis.Sometimes we need more information, sometimes we don’t. The role of science in a decision-making process is to provide the predictions that link the alternative actions to the desired outcomes. Investing in more science is only valuable if it helps to choose a better action.Implementation. The successful integration of decision analysis into environmental decisions requires careful attention to the decision, the people, and the institutions involved.
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2010-01-01
... infectious anemia reactors and approval of laboratories, diagnostic facilities, and research facilities. 75.4... IN HORSES, ASSES, PONIES, MULES, AND ZEBRAS Equine Infectious Anemia (swamp Fever) § 75.4 Interstate movement of equine infectious anemia reactors and approval of laboratories, diagnostic facilities, and...
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Congress, courts, and commerce: upholding the individual mandate to protect the public's health.
Hodge, James G; Brown, Erin C Fuse; Orenstein, Daniel G; O'Keefe, Sarah
2011-01-01
Among multiple legal challenges to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) is the premise that PPACA's "individual mandate" (requiring all individuals to obtain health insurance by 2014 or face civil penalties) is inviolate of Congress' interstate commerce powers because Congress lacks the power to regulate commercial "inactivity." Several courts initially considering this argument have rejected it, but federal district courts in Virginia and Florida have concurred, leading to numerous appeals and prospective review of the United States Supreme Court. Despite creative arguments, the dispositive constitutional question is not whether Congress' interstate commerce power extends to commercial inactivity. Rather, it is whether Congress may regulate individual decisions with significant economic ramifications in the interests of protecting and promoting the public's health. This article offers a counter-interpretation of the scope of Congress' interstate commerce power to regulate in furtherance of the public's health. © 2011 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.
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2011-04-19
...) held a public hearing in December 2009 for the Interstate Transport SIP revision: ``State of Colorado... evaluated in the Transport Rule Proposal may be evaluated using a weight-of-evidence approach that takes... States Design Values Memo takes the same approach as the Transport Rule Proposal (5 year weighted average...
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Bedia, Manuel G.; Di Paolo, Ezequiel
2012-01-01
Dual-process approaches of decision-making examine the interaction between affective/intuitive and deliberative processes underlying value judgment. From this perspective, decisions are supported by a combination of relatively explicit capabilities for abstract reasoning and relatively implicit evolved domain-general as well as learned domain-specific affective responses. One such approach, the somatic markers hypothesis (SMH), expresses these implicit processes as a system of evolved primary emotions supplemented by associations between affect and experience that accrue over lifetime, or somatic markers. In this view, somatic markers are useful only if their local capability to predict the value of an action is above a baseline equal to the predictive capability of the combined rational and primary emotional subsystems. We argue that decision-making has often been conceived of as a linear process: the effect of decision sequences is additive, local utility is cumulative, and there is no strong environmental feedback. This widespread assumption can have consequences for answering questions regarding the relative weight between the systems and their interaction within a cognitive architecture. We introduce a mathematical formalization of the SMH and study it in situations of dynamic, non-linear decision chains using a discrete-time stochastic model. We find, contrary to expectations, that decision-making events can interact non-additively with the environment in apparently paradoxical ways. We find that in non-lethal situations, primary emotions are represented globally over and above their local weight, showing a tendency for overcautiousness in situated decision chains. We also show that because they tend to counteract this trend, poorly attuned somatic markers that by themselves do not locally enhance decision-making, can still produce an overall positive effect. This result has developmental and evolutionary implications since, by promoting exploratory behavior
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Bedia, Manuel G; Di Paolo, Ezequiel
2012-01-01
Dual-process approaches of decision-making examine the interaction between affective/intuitive and deliberative processes underlying value judgment. From this perspective, decisions are supported by a combination of relatively explicit capabilities for abstract reasoning and relatively implicit evolved domain-general as well as learned domain-specific affective responses. One such approach, the somatic markers hypothesis (SMH), expresses these implicit processes as a system of evolved primary emotions supplemented by associations between affect and experience that accrue over lifetime, or somatic markers. In this view, somatic markers are useful only if their local capability to predict the value of an action is above a baseline equal to the predictive capability of the combined rational and primary emotional subsystems. We argue that decision-making has often been conceived of as a linear process: the effect of decision sequences is additive, local utility is cumulative, and there is no strong environmental feedback. This widespread assumption can have consequences for answering questions regarding the relative weight between the systems and their interaction within a cognitive architecture. We introduce a mathematical formalization of the SMH and study it in situations of dynamic, non-linear decision chains using a discrete-time stochastic model. We find, contrary to expectations, that decision-making events can interact non-additively with the environment in apparently paradoxical ways. We find that in non-lethal situations, primary emotions are represented globally over and above their local weight, showing a tendency for overcautiousness in situated decision chains. We also show that because they tend to counteract this trend, poorly attuned somatic markers that by themselves do not locally enhance decision-making, can still produce an overall positive effect. This result has developmental and evolutionary implications since, by promoting exploratory behavior
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Hiemenz, Matthew C; Leung, Stanley T; Park, Jason Y
2014-03-01
In the United States, recent judicial interpretation of interstate licensure laws has found pathologists guilty of malpractice and, more importantly, the criminal practice of medicine without a license. These judgments against pathologists highlight the need for a timely and comprehensive survey of licensure requirements and laws regulating the interstate practice of pathology. For all 50 states, each state medical practice act and state medical board website was reviewed. In addition, each medical board was directly contacted by electronic mail, telephone, or US registered mail for information regarding specific legislation or guidelines related to the interstate practice of pathology. On the basis of this information, states were grouped according to similarities in legislation and medical board regulations. This comprehensive survey has determined that states define the practice of pathology on the basis of the geographic location of the patient at the time of surgery or phlebotomy. The majority of states (n=32) and the District of Columbia allow for a physician with an out-of-state license to perform limited consultation to a physician with the specific state license. Several states (n=5) prohibit physicians from consultation without a license for the specific state. Overall, these results reveal the heterogeneity of licensure requirements between states. Pathologists who either practice in multiple states, send cases to out-of-state consultants, or serve as consultants themselves should familiarize themselves with the medical licensure laws of the states from which they receive or send cases.
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2013-09-04
... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Employment and Training Administration [TA-W-82,165D] Interstate Brands Corporation (IBC); a Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Hostess Brands, Inc.; Including On-Site Leased Workers From... Brands Corporation (IBC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Hostess Brands, Inc., operating at locations...
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Leadership in the history-making decisions of European integration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Beach, Derek
2007-01-01
Within EU studies, there has been an increasing recognition that the celebrated ‘big bangs’ of integration do not materialize by themselves. History-making decisions like constitutional negotiations within intergovernmental conferences (IGCs) are not what can be termed ‘spot markets’, [1] where......) and their impact, with the inevitable over/underestimation of influence depending upon how the author’s take on the person. In recent years the concept of leadership has been utilized in a more systematic fashion both within political science / international relations more generally, and more specifically within...... EU studies. We have seen the use of principal-agent theorizing on leadership, with scholars looking at legislative politics (Fiorina and Shepsle), executive politics and delegation (Pollack, Tallberg), along with the broader IR literature on regime creation and change and interstate negotiations...
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2010-01-01
... from outside the quarantined area that are being moved in accordance with the protocols described in a... movement of regulated articles from quarantined areas. Any regulated article may be moved interstate from a quarantined area 3 only if moved under the following conditions: 3 Requirements under all other applicable...
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2010-07-01
... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false South Bend-Elkhart (Indiana)-Benton Harbor (Michigan) Interstate Air Quality Control Region. 81.73 Section 81.73 Protection of Environment... PLANNING PURPOSES Designation of Air Quality Control Regions § 81.73 South Bend-Elkhart (Indiana)-Benton...
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Bridging legal and economic perspectives on interstate municipal solid waste disposal in the US
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Longo, Christine; Wagner, Jeffrey
2011-01-01
Research highlights: → Legal and economic opinions of free interstate trade of MSW in the US are reviewed. → Economic theory of landfill space as the article of commerce can align opinions. → Waste management policies implied by this economic theory are compared/contrasted. - Abstract: Managing municipal solid waste (MSW) within and across regions is a complex public policy problem. One challenge regards conceptualizing precisely what commodity is to be managed across space and time. The US Supreme Court view is that waste disposal is the article of commerce per se. Some justices, however, have argued that while waste disposal is the article of commerce, its interstate flow could be impeded by states on the grounds that they have the authority to regulate natural resource quality within their boundaries. The argument in this paper is that adopting the economic theory view of the article of commerce as landfill space brings the majority and dissenting US Supreme Court views-and the resulting sides of the public policy dispute-into closer alignment. We discuss waste management policy tools that emerge from this closer alignment that are more likely to both withstand judicial scrutiny and achieve economic efficiency.
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Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making
Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene
2007-01-01
Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.
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Hamada, K.; Yoshizawa, K.
2015-09-01
A new method of fully nonlinear waveform fitting to measure interstation phase speeds and amplitude ratios is developed and applied to USArray. The Neighbourhood Algorithm is used as a global optimizer, which efficiently searches for model parameters that fit two observed waveforms on a common great-circle path by modulating the phase and amplitude terms of the fundamental-mode surface waves. We introduce the reliability parameter that represents how well the waveforms at two stations can be fitted in a time-frequency domain, which is used as a data selection criterion. The method is applied to observed waveforms of USArray for seismic events in the period from 2007 to 2010 with moment magnitude greater than 6.0. We collect a large number of phase speed data (about 75 000 for Rayleigh and 20 000 for Love) and amplitude ratio data (about 15 000 for Rayleigh waves) in a period range from 30 to 130 s. The majority of the interstation distances of measured dispersion data is less than 1000 km, which is much shorter than the typical average path-length of the conventional single-station measurements for source-receiver pairs. The phase speed models for Rayleigh and Love waves show good correlations on large scales with the recent tomographic maps derived from different approaches for phase speed mapping; for example, significant slow anomalies in volcanic regions in the western Unites States and fast anomalies in the cratonic region. Local-scale phase speed anomalies corresponding to the major tectonic features in the western United States, such as Snake River Plains, Basin and Range, Colorado Plateau and Rio Grande Rift have also been identified clearly in the phase speed models. The short-path information derived from our interstation measurements helps to increase the achievable horizontal resolution. We have also performed joint inversions for phase speed maps using the measured phase and amplitude ratio data of vertical component Rayleigh waves. These maps exhibit
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2010-09-14
...: (919) 541-0824; e-mail address: [email protected] . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The proposed Transport... (i.e., section V.D.4.a (75 FR 45307-9)) that discusses in detail the proposed Transport Rule trading...-9201-6] RIN 2060-AP50 Federal Implementation Plans To Reduce Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate...
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2010-07-01
... years. (b)(1) The owner and operator of each NOX source located within the State of South Carolina and...) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS (CONTINUED) South Carolina § 52.2140 Interstate pollutant...) The owner and operator of each source located within the State of South Carolina and for which...
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2010-07-01
... years. (b)(1) The owner and operator of each NOX source located within the State of North Carolina and...) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS (CONTINUED) North Carolina § 52.1784 Interstate pollutant...) The owner and operator of each source located within the State of North Carolina and for which...
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Evaluating the impacts of grades on vehicular speeds on interstate highways.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xinqiang Chen
Full Text Available Grade variation on interstate highways affects the roadway geometric design, vehicle performance and driver behavior, thus possibly exerting an unexpected effect on vehicular speed. Hence, determining the internal relationship between grade and speed is important and useful for drivers, traffic regulators and other traffic participants. However, the problem with performing this research is the lack of large-scale gradient and speed data. Google Earth (GE provides an application programming interface for extracting elevation data worldwide. The elevation dataset from GE can be easily converted to grade data. In addition, our team has collected and stored speed series data for different freeways over several years. Based on the above obtainable grade and speed datasets, we conducted research on the effect of grades on free flow speeds from two perspectives. First, the influence of grades on speed was analyzed from both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The analysis of the distributions of four typical types of speeds demonstrated a decreasing tendency as the speed increased. Steeper grades generated a more intense speed fluctuation in terms of the four types of speeds. Second, a model based on the Student's t-test was developed to evaluate the level of significant difference among speed series under neighboring grades. The Student's t-test demonstrated that adjacent grades do not significantly influence the speeds. In summary, speeds under different grades showed obviously different tendencies. The findings of this study can help transport authorities set more reasonable speed limits and improve the geometric design of interstates with grade variation constraints.
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Understanding common risk analysis problems leads to better E and P decisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, M.B.
1994-01-01
Many petroleum geologists, engineers and managers who have been introduced to petroleum risk analysis doubt that probability theory actually works in practice. Discovery probability estimates for exploration prospects always seem to be more optimistic than after-the-fact results. In general, probability estimates seem to be plucked from the air without any objective basis. Because of subtleties in probability theories, errors may result in applying risk analysis to real problems. Four examples have been selected to illustrate how misunderstanding in applying risk analysis may lead to incorrect decisions. Examples 1 and 2 show how falsely assuming statistical independence distorts probability calculations. Example 1 and 2 show how falsely assuming statistical independence distorts probability calculations. Example 3 discusses problems with related variable using the Monte Carlo method. Example 4 shows how subsurface data yields a probability value that is superior to a simple statistical estimate. The potential mistakes in the following examples would go unnoticed in analyses in most companies. Lack of objectivity and flawed theory would be blamed when fault actually would lies with incorrect application of basic probability principles
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Toxoplasma gondii infection in interstate truck drivers: a case-control seroprevalence study.
Alvarado-Esquivel, Cosme; Pacheco-Vega, Sandy Janet; Hernández-Tinoco, Jesús; Salcedo-Jáquez, Misael; Sánchez-Anguiano, Luis Francisco; Berumen-Segovia, Luis Omar; Rábago-Sánchez, Elizabeth; Liesenfeld, Oliver
2015-02-05
Infection with Toxoplasma gondii can be acquired via the ingestion of undercooked or raw meat containing tissue cysts, or via ingestion of water contaminated with oocysts. Professional long distance truck driving may have epidemiological importance for food-borne infections since drivers eat out of home and in places where hygiene and cooking practices are uncertain. We aimed to determine whether interstate truck drivers in Durango, Mexico have an increased risk of infection with T. gondii as indicated by seropositivity; and to determine the socio-demographic, work, clinical, and behavioral characteristics associated with T. gondii seropositivity in interstate truck drivers. Through a case-control study design, 192 truck drivers and 192 controls from the general population of the same region matched by gender and age were examined with enzyme-linked immunoassays for the presence of anti-Toxoplasma IgG and IgM antibodies. Socio-demographic, work, clinical and behavioral characteristics from the truck drivers were obtained. Anti-T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 23 (12.0%) of 192 truck drivers and in 13 (6.8%) of 192 controls (OR = 21.0; 95% CI: 1.23-358.38; P = 0.002). Anti-T. gondii IgM antibodies were found in 7 (3.6%) cases and in 7 (3.6%) controls (P = 1.00). The seroprevalence of T. gondii infection was higher in drivers with reflex impairment than in those without this impairment (4/13, 30.8% vs 19/179, 10.6%, respectively; P = 0.05), and in drivers with hearing impairment than in those without this impairment (3/7, 42.9% vs 20/185, 10.8%, respectively; P = 0.03). Multivariate analysis of work and behavioral characteristics of truck drives showed positive associations of T. gondii exposure with trips to the south of Mexico (OR = 3.11; 95% CI: 1.02-9.44; P = 0.04) and consumption of horse meat (OR = 5.18; 95% CI: 1.62-16.55; P = 0.005). Results suggest that interstate truck drivers may have an increased risk for T
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Creating interstate compacts for low level waste management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marcus, A.A.
1986-01-01
The implementation of the 1980 Low-level Radioactive Waste Policy Act (LLRWPA) depends on the creation of interstate compacts. Compact formation is a public goods problem. Formation may be impeded by opposition from elements in the federal government, the inability of state governments to resolve problems of conflicting political interests, and the possiblity of extensive and unfruitful negotiations. These obstacles my be overcome if fortuitous circumstances exist and entrepreneurial behavior is applied. Guidelines that entrepreneurs may use to facilitate compact formation are relying on the exclusive character of incentives, forming compacts with a small number of members, taking advantage of inequality of interests among prospective members, using solidary incentives to promote cooperation, relying on existing regional organizations to build support, employing a game metaphor to understand the stakes of the participants, and making each party subject to an agreement feel as if it were a winner. (author)
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9 CFR 82.8 - Interstate movement of eggs, other than hatching eggs, from a quarantined area.
2010-01-01
... arrival of the eggs at the facility. (b) Any flats or cases intended for reuse after being used to move... part 71 of this chapter before being moved to a premises where birds or poultry are kept. [61 FR 56883... be moved interstate from a quarantined area only if: (1) The eggs are accompanied by a permit...
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THE TRANS-MISSOURI CASE: DOES THE SHERMAN ACT APPLY TO THE RAILROADS?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael Landry
2003-01-01
Full Text Available In 1887, in answer to railroad abuses of monopoly power, Congress passed the Interstate Commerce Act, which created the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC. In the next decade the Commission’s powers were considerably diminished by a series of Supreme Court decisions in cases in which the railroads appealed ICC rulings. In only one case during this period, the United States v. Trans-Missouri Freight Association, did the Court uphold an ICC decision. This case was primarily about collaborative ratemaking in rate bureaus but covered several larger issues, especially the possibly conflicting jurisdictions of the Sherman Act and the Interstate Commerce Act.
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Zsolnai, László
2011-01-01
The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...
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2012-08-13
... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket Nos. PF12-12-000; PF12-13-000] Cameron Interstate Pipeline, LLC, Cameron LNG, LLC; Notice of Intent To Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement for the Planned Cameron Pipeline Expansion Project and Cameron LNG Liquefaction Project, Request for Comments on Environmental Issues,...
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How Anxiety Leads to Suboptimal Decisions Under Risky Choice Situations.
Yang, Zhiyong; Saini, Ritesh; Freling, Traci
2015-10-01
The current research proposes that situationally activated anxiety--whether incidental or integral-impairs decision making. In particular, we theorize that anxiety drives decisionmakers to more heavily emphasize subjective anecdotal information in their decision making, at the expense of more factual statistical information--a deleterious heuristic called the anecdotal bias. Four studies provide consistent support for this assertion. Studies 1A and 1B feature field experiments that demonstrate the role of incidental anxiety in enhancing the anecdotal bias in a choice context. Study 2 builds on these findings, manipulating individuals' incidental anxiety and showing how this affects the anecdotal bias in the context of message evaluations. Study 2 also provides direct evidence that only high-arousal negative emotions such as anxiety/worry enhance the anecdotal bias, not just any negative emotion (e.g., sadness). While the first three studies examine how incidental anxiety impacts choice, the last study demonstrates the effect of integral anxiety on decision making, manipulating anxiety by intensifying participants' perceived risk. Our results show that--consistent with findings from our first three studies--the anecdotal bias is enhanced when anxiety is heightened by individuals' perception of risk. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
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2010-04-01
... require tests in interstate markets of the advantages to and acceptance by consumers of experimental packs... Administration, or good cause shown by the applicant, may provide for a longer test market period. The Food and... determined. (c) Any person desiring a permit may file with the Team Leader, Conventional Foods Team, Division...
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[Cognitive errors in diagnostic decision making].
Gäbler, Martin
2017-10-01
Approximately 10-15% of our diagnostic decisions are faulty and may lead to unfavorable and dangerous outcomes, which could be avoided. These diagnostic errors are mainly caused by cognitive biases in the diagnostic reasoning process.Our medical diagnostic decision-making is based on intuitive "System 1" and analytical "System 2" diagnostic decision-making and can be deviated by unconscious cognitive biases.These deviations can be positively influenced on a systemic and an individual level. For the individual, metacognition (internal withdrawal from the decision-making process) and debiasing strategies, such as verification, falsification and rule out worst-case scenarios, can lead to improved diagnostic decisions making.
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Interstate Differences on Economic Growth Rates in Australia, 1953-54 to 1990-91
Harris, P; Harris, D
1992-01-01
This paper examines interstate differences in economic growth rates in Australia over the period 1953-54 to 1990-91 using a six State classification (with ACT included in New South Wales and the Northern Territory in South Australia). The economic growth rate is measured by the increase in constant price gross state product at factor cost (GSP) per head of population over time, using three year moving averages of GSP and population to remove some of the annual fluctuations in the data. The an...
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Why unbiased computational processes can lead to discriminative decision procedures (Chapter 3)
Calders, T.G.K.; Zliobaite, I.; Custers, B.H.M.; Calders, T.G.K.; Schermer, B.W.; Zarsky, T.Z.
2013-01-01
Nowadays, more and more decision procedures are supported or even guided by automated processes. An important technique in this automation is data mining. In this chapter we study how such automatically generated decision support models may exhibit discriminatory behavior towards certain groups
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. I. Pak
2016-09-01
Research objective is the justification of the need of activization of the state policy on Euro-regional cooperation in the sphere of the interstate regional governance. During the research it is recognized that the realization of the state policy on the basis of the considered principles, tools, functions, factors and methods has to execute a main objective of the interstate regional control which is exercised in the sphere of Euro-regional cooperation and to promote adjustment of close mutually beneficial relations of Ukraine and neighboring states, to increase competitiveness of the Ukrainian territories and the most effective use of capacity of the Ukrainian regions in the course of activity of Euro-regions. Finally, such state policy has to be focused on the maintenance of the sufficient standard of living of the population, on ensuring integrity and unity of the social and economic space of the country, on formation of the conditions of sustainable and industrial and innovative development of regions, which will provide its harmonious integration into the European environment.
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LEADING WITH LEADING INDICATORS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
PREVETTE, S.S.
2005-01-01
This paper documents Fluor Hanford's use of Leading Indicators, management leadership, and statistical methodology in order to improve safe performance of work. By applying these methods, Fluor Hanford achieved a significant reduction in injury rates in 2003 and 2004, and the improvement continues today. The integration of data, leadership, and teamwork pays off with improved safety performance and credibility with the customer. The use of Statistical Process Control, Pareto Charts, and Systems Thinking and their effect on management decisions and employee involvement are discussed. Included are practical examples of choosing leading indicators. A statistically based color coded dashboard presentation system methodology is provided. These tools, management theories and methods, coupled with involved leadership and employee efforts, directly led to significant improvements in worker safety and health, and environmental protection and restoration at one of the nation's largest nuclear cleanup sites
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Robustness Regions for Dichotomous Decisions.
Vijn, Pieter; Molenaar, Ivo W.
1981-01-01
In the case of dichotomous decisions, the total set of all assumptions/specifications for which the decision would have been the same is the robustness region. Inspection of this (data-dependent) region is a form of sensitivity analysis which may lead to improved decision making. (Author/BW)
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Constructing food choice decisions.
Sobal, Jeffery; Bisogni, Carole A
2009-12-01
Food choice decisions are frequent, multifaceted, situational, dynamic, and complex and lead to food behaviors where people acquire, prepare, serve, give away, store, eat, and clean up. Many disciplines and fields examine decision making. Several classes of theories are applicable to food decision making, including social behavior, social facts, and social definition perspectives. Each offers some insights but also makes limiting assumptions that prevent fully explaining food choice decisions. We used constructionist social definition perspectives to inductively develop a food choice process model that organizes a broad scope of factors and dynamics involved in food behaviors. This food choice process model includes (1) life course events and experiences that establish a food choice trajectory through transitions, turning points, timing, and contexts; (2) influences on food choices that include cultural ideals, personal factors, resources, social factors, and present contexts; and (3) a personal system that develops food choice values, negotiates and balances values, classifies foods and situations, and forms/revises food choice strategies, scripts, and routines. The parts of the model dynamically interact to make food choice decisions leading to food behaviors. No single theory can fully explain decision making in food behavior. Multiple perspectives are needed, including constructionist thinking.
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The hidden traps in decision making.
Hammond, J S; Keeney, R L; Raiffa, H
1998-01-01
Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made--the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighted. But sometimes the fault lies not in the decision-making process but rather in the mind of the decision maker. The way the human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa examine eight psychological traps that are particularly likely to affect the way we make business decisions: The anchoring trap leads us to give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. The statusquo trap biases us toward maintaining the current situation--even when better alternatives exist. The sunk-cost trap inclines us to perpetuate the mistakes of the past. The confirming-evidence trap leads us to seek out information supporting an existing predilection and to discount opposing information. The framing trap occurs when we misstate a problem, undermining the entire decision-making process. The overconfidence trap makes us overestimate the accuracy of our forecasts. The prudence trap leads us to be overcautious when we make estimates about uncertain events. And the recallability trap leads us to give undue weight to recent, dramatic events. The best way to avoid all the traps is awareness--forewarned is forearmed. But executives can also take other simple steps to protect themselves and their organizations from the various kinds of mental lapses. The authors show how to take action to ensure that important business decisions are sound and reliable.
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2015-02-01
This study proposes the use of a geographic information system (GIS) to create a susceptibility map, pinpointing : regions in the karst counties of Virginia, in particular, along interstates, most susceptible to future sinkhole : development, determi...
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2010-01-01
... conveyance containing any animals susceptible to tuberculosis unless all of the animals are being moved... cattle or bison may be moved interstate only if they are moved directly to slaughter at an approved... representative or moved directly to slaughter in vehicles closed with official seals. Such official seals must be...
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43 CFR 46.220 - How to designate lead agencies.
2010-10-01
... document will meet their needs for adoption and application to their related decision(s). (b) In some cases...) In some cases, the Responsible Official may establish a joint lead relationship among several Federal... agencies. (a) In most cases, the Responsible Official should designate one Federal agency as the lead with...
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Holsti, O.R.
1989-01-01
This article presents evidence that the potential loss of control of events by officials who must operate under conditions that generate substantial stress is one of the central problems of crisis decision making. Examples of U.S. crises management and alliance management are reviewed, and possible tools for improving crisis management decisions are discussed. This article particularly focuses on crises which may lead to nuclear war
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Functional imaging of decision conflict
Pochon, J.B.; Riis, J.; Sanfey, A.G.; Nystrom, L.E.; Cohen, J.D.
2008-01-01
Decision conflict occurs when people feel uncertain as to which option to choose from a set of similarly attractive ( or unattractive) options, with many studies demonstrating that this conflict can lead to suboptimal decision making. In this article, we investigate the neurobiological underpinnings
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Trevena, L.J.; Zikmund-Fisher, B.J.; Edwards, A.; Gaissmaier, W.; Galesic, M.; Han, P.K.J.; King, J.; Lawson, M.L.; Linder, S.K.; Lipkus, I.; Ozanne, E.; Peters, E.; Timmermans, D.R.M.; Woloshin, S.
2013-01-01
Background: Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients' risk perception and leads to better informed decision
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Game theory decisions, interaction and evolution
Webb, James N
2007-01-01
This introduction to game theory is written from a mathematical perspective. Its primary purpose is to be a first course for undergraduate students of mathematics, but it also contains material which will be of interest to advanced students or researchers in biology and economics. The outstanding feature of the book is that it provides a unified account of three types of decision problem: Situations involving a single decision-maker: in which a sequence of choices is to be made in "a game against nature". This introduces the basic ideas of optimality and decision processes. Classical game theory: in which the interactions of two or more decision-makers are considered. This leads to the concept of the Nash equilibrium. Evolutionary game theory: in which the changing structure of a population of interacting decision makers is considered. This leads to the ideas of evolutionarily stable strategies and replicator dynamics. An understanding of basic calculus and probability is assumed but no prior knowledge of gam...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zahra Zahmatkesh
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Estimating maximum possible rainfall is of great value for flood prediction and protection, particularly for regions, such as Canada, where urban and fluvial floods from extreme rainfalls have been known to be a major concern. In this study, a methodology is proposed to forecast real-time rainfall (with one month lead time using different number of spatial inputs with different orders of lags. For this purpose, two types of models are used. The first one is a machine learning data driven-based model, which uses a set of hydrologic variables as inputs, and the second one is an empirical-statistical model that employs the multi-criteria decision analysis method for rainfall forecasting. The data driven model is built based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, while the developed multi-criteria decision analysis model uses Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS approach. A comprehensive set of spatially varying climate variables, including geopotential height, sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, humidity, temperature and pressure with different orders of lags is collected to form input vectors for the forecast models. Then, a feature selection method is employed to identify the most appropriate predictors. Two sets of results from the developed models, i.e., maximum daily rainfall in each month (RMAX and cumulative value of rainfall for each month (RCU, are considered as the target variables for forecast purpose. The results from both modeling approaches are compared using a number of evaluation criteria such as Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE. The proposed models are applied for rainfall forecasting for a coastal area in Western Canada: Vancouver, British Columbia. Results indicate although data driven models such as ANNs work well for the simulation purpose, developed TOPSIS model considerably outperforms ANNs for the rainfall forecasting. ANNs show acceptable simulation performance during the
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Xiping Wang; Richard Bergman; T. Mace
2010-01-01
Because of the potential risk associated with moving emerald ash borer (EAB)-infested firewood, the interstate movement of all hardwood firewood in the USA is currently restricted under the Federal quarantine. Communities and firewood producers are now faced with decisions on how to treat their firewood for interstate commerce. The new US Federal regulations for heat...
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A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
John eFox
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Decision-making behaviour is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualisation of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem-solving, planning and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuro-psychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering.
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A Canonical Theory of Dynamic Decision-Making
Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P.; Glasspool, David W.
2012-01-01
Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering. PMID:23565100
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Le Coz, Pierr; Tassy, Sebastien
2007-08-01
The present investigation looks for a solution to the problem of the influence of feelings and emotions on our ethical decisions. This problem can be formulated in the following way. On the one hand, emotions (fear, pity and so on) can alter our sense of discrimination and lead us to make our wrong decisions. On the other hand, it is known that lack of sensitivity can alter our judgment and lead us to sacrifice basic ethical principles such as autonomy, beneficence, non-maleficence and justice. Only emotions can turn a decision into an ethical one, but they can also turn it into an unreasonable one. To avoid this contradiction, suggest integrating emotions with the decisional factors of the process of "retrospective thinking". During this thinking, doctors usually try to identify the nature and impact of feelings on the decision they have just made. In this retrospective moment of analysis of the decision, doctors also question themselves on the feelings they did not experience. They do this to estimate the consequences of this lack of feeling on the way they behaved with the patient.
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Neuromodulation of Nestmate Recognition Decisions by Pavement Ants.
Bubak, Andrew N; Yaeger, Jazmine D W; Renner, Kenneth J; Swallow, John G; Greene, Michael J
2016-01-01
Ant colonies are distributed systems that are regulated in a non-hierarchical manner. Without a central authority, individuals inform their decisions by comparing information in local cues to a set of inherent behavioral rules. Individual behavioral decisions collectively change colony behavior and lead to self-organization capable of solving complex problems such as the decision to engage in aggressive societal conflicts with neighbors. Despite the relevance to colony fitness, the mechanisms that drive individual decisions leading to cooperative behavior are not well understood. Here we show how sensory information, both tactile and chemical, and social context-isolation, nestmate interaction, or fighting non-nestmates-affects brain monoamine levels in pavement ants (Tetramorium caespitum). Our results provide evidence that changes in octopamine and serotonin in the brains of individuals are sufficient to alter the decision by pavement ants to be aggressive towards non-nestmate ants whereas increased brain levels of dopamine correlate to physical fighting. We propose a model in which the changes in brain states of many workers collectively lead to the self-organization of societal aggression between neighboring colonies of pavement ants.
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Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju
2015-08-01
Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
ALINA KULAI
2015-10-01
Full Text Available In the article we examined the main models and forms of public-private partnership, their role in the socio-economic development and deepening of financial convergence of countries-participants of the partnership. The attention was paid to decentralization of inter-state forms of public-private partnership as the basis of cross-border and transnational partnership. The scientific research, described in this publication, have found their practical application in the realization of the project within Euro-region “Bug”. This project has founded a joined Ukrainian – Polish institution of labor migration administration and also of granting necessary permissions for realization activities within Ukraine.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.
1999-01-01
Daytime and night-time population densities bordering Interstate highway routes in metropolitan areas are compared at the traffic analysis zone level. In three of the metropolitan areas studied, histograms of daytime to night-time population density ratios are peaked at 1.0. In a smaller metropolitan area, the peak of the histogram moves to values greater than 1.0 but less than 2.0. In view of the typical uncertainties in calculating radiological transport effects (∼2), this study indicates that a distinction between daytime and night-time transport is not warranted, especially since a typical route includes extensive transport outside metropolitan areas. (author)
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2014-03-01
Created after Hurricane Andrew in 1992, EMAC remedied shortfalls found in the interstate response to that hurricane. Beginning as the Southern...implemented at the lowest possible level. While amendments to EMAC or the adoption of a new compact would remedy these issues, such action would require...Security raised the threat level to orange (DHS, n.d. a). The rail attack was believed to involve hydrogen cyanide gas, and it was expected to
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Edgell, S E; McCabe, S J; Breidenbach, W C; Neace, W P; LaJoie, A S; Abell, T D
2001-03-01
Different frames of reference can affect one's assessment of the value of hand transplantation. This can result in different yet rational decisions by different groups of individuals, especially patients and physicians. In addition, factors other than frames of reference can affect one's evaluation of hand transplantation, which can result in different decisions.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Howard W. Mielke
2018-04-01
Full Text Available This commentary provides a brief overview of policy decisions that permitted getting tetraethyl lead (TEL into petrol; global geochemical lead-dust deposition evidence; 1975 catalytic converter requirements; concern about habitability of cities; a personal perspective on legacy lead research that accelerated getting TEL out of petrol; and translational beyond, including New Orleans pre- vs. post-Hurricane Katrina observations about legacy lead interventions that effectively improve urban children’s health outcomes.
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Understanding patient perceptions of shared decision making.
Shay, L Aubree; Lafata, Jennifer Elston
2014-09-01
This study aims to develop a conceptual model of patient-defined SDM, and understand what leads patients to label a specific, decision-making process as shared. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 23 primary care patients following a recent appointment. Patients were asked about the meaning of SDM and about specific decisions that they labeled as shared. Interviews were coded using qualitative content analysis. Patients' conceptual definition of SDM included four components of an interactive exchange prior to making the decision: both doctor and patient share information, both are open-minded and respectful, patient self-advocacy, and a personalized physician recommendation. Additionally, a long-term trusting relationship helps foster SDM. In contrast, when asked about a specific decision labeled as shared, patients described a range of interactions with the only commonality being that the two parties came to a mutually agreed-upon decision. There is no one-size-fits all process that leads patients to label a decision as shared. Rather, the outcome of "agreement" may be more important than the actual decision-making process for patients to label a decision as shared. Studies are needed to better understand how longitudinal communication between patient and physicians and patient self-advocacy behaviors affect patient perceptions of SDM. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
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Neuromodulation of Nestmate Recognition Decisions by Pavement Ants.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrew N Bubak
Full Text Available Ant colonies are distributed systems that are regulated in a non-hierarchical manner. Without a central authority, individuals inform their decisions by comparing information in local cues to a set of inherent behavioral rules. Individual behavioral decisions collectively change colony behavior and lead to self-organization capable of solving complex problems such as the decision to engage in aggressive societal conflicts with neighbors. Despite the relevance to colony fitness, the mechanisms that drive individual decisions leading to cooperative behavior are not well understood. Here we show how sensory information, both tactile and chemical, and social context-isolation, nestmate interaction, or fighting non-nestmates-affects brain monoamine levels in pavement ants (Tetramorium caespitum. Our results provide evidence that changes in octopamine and serotonin in the brains of individuals are sufficient to alter the decision by pavement ants to be aggressive towards non-nestmate ants whereas increased brain levels of dopamine correlate to physical fighting. We propose a model in which the changes in brain states of many workers collectively lead to the self-organization of societal aggression between neighboring colonies of pavement ants.
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Functional imaging of decision conflict.
Pochon, Jean-Baptiste; Riis, Jason; Sanfey, Alan G; Nystrom, Leigh E; Cohen, Jonathan D
2008-03-26
Decision conflict occurs when people feel uncertain as to which option to choose from a set of similarly attractive (or unattractive) options, with many studies demonstrating that this conflict can lead to suboptimal decision making. In this article, we investigate the neurobiological underpinnings of decision conflict, in particular, the involvement of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Previous studies have implicated the ACC in conflict monitoring during perceptual tasks, but there is considerable controversy as to whether the ACC actually indexes conflict related to choice, or merely conflict related to selection of competing motor responses. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging study, we dissociate the decision and response phases of a decision task, and show that the ACC does indeed index conflict at the decision stage. Furthermore, we show that it does so for a complex decision task, one that requires the integration of beliefs and preferences and not just perceptual judgments.
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Lax decision criteria lead to negativity bias: evidence from the emotional stroop task.
Liu, Guofang; Xin, Ziqiang; Lin, Chongde
2014-06-01
Negativity bias means that negative information is usually given more emphasis than comparable positive information. Under signal detection theory, recent research found that people more frequently and incorrectly identify negative task-related words as having been presented originally than positive words, even when they were not presented. That is, people have lax decision criteria for negative words. However, the response biases for task-unrelated negative words and for emotionally important words are still unclear. This study investigated response bias for these two kinds of words. Study 1 examined the response bias for task-unrelated negative words using an emotional Stroop task. Proportions of correct recognition to negative and positive words were assessed by non-parametric signal detection analysis. Participants have lower (i.e., more lax) decision criteria for task-unrelated negative words than for positive words. Study 2 supported and expanded this result by investigating participants' response bias for highly emotional words. Participants have lower decision criteria for highly emotional words than for less emotional words. Finally, possible evolutionary sources of the response bias were discussed.
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CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF INTUITIVE MORAL DECISIONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. V. Nadurak
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Purpose of the research is a critical analysis of the reliability of intuitive moral decisions. Methodology. The work is based on the methodological attitude of empirical ethics, involving the use of findings from empirical research in ethical reflection and decision making. Originality. The main kinds of intuitive moral decisions are identified: 1 intuitively emotional decisions (i.e. decisions made under the influence of emotions that accompanies the process of moral decision making; 2 decisions made under the influence of moral risky psychological aptitudes (unconscious human tendencies that makes us think in a certain way and make decisions, unacceptable from the logical and ethical point of view; 3 intuitively normative decisions (decisions made under the influence of socially learned norms, that cause evaluative feeling «good-bad», without conscious reasoning. It was found that all of these kinds of intuitive moral decisions can lead to mistakes in the moral life. Conclusions. Considering the fact that intuition systematically leads to erroneous moral decisions, intuitive reaction cannot be the only source for making such decisions. The conscious rational reasoning can compensate for weaknesses of intuition. In this case, there is a necessity in theoretical model that would structure the knowledge about the interactions between intuitive and rational factors in moral decisions making and became the basis for making suggestions that would help us to make the right moral decision.
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Cognitive processes in anesthesiology decision making.
Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery
2014-01-01
The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.
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Transparency in decision-making processes governing hazardous activities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, B.; Jensen, K.K.; Sandøe, P.
2007-01-01
Transparent decisions are decisions in which the decision maker clearly presents to others the normative and factual premises behind the conclusions and explains the reasoning leading from these premises to the conclusion. Transparency thus involves uncovering, describing, documenting...... and communicating all the argumentative steps in the line of reasoning. It also involves acknowledging the weighting of any evidence drawn upon in reaching the final decision. It is recommended that each decision should be accompanied by an audit trail describing the premises justifying it. Uncertainties should...
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Beyond expected utility: rethinking behavioral decision research.
Frisch, D; Clemen, R T
1994-07-01
Much research in psychology has evaluated the quality of people's decisions by comparisons with subjective expected utility (SEU) theory. This article suggests that typical arguments made for the status of utility theory as normative do not justify its use by psychologists as a standard by which to evaluate decision quality. It is argued that to evaluate decision quality, researchers need to identify those decision processes that tend to lead to desirable outcomes. It is contended that a good decision-making process must be concerned with how (and whether) decision makers evaluate potential consequences of decisions, the extent to which they accurately identify all relevant consequences, and the way in which they make final choices. Research that bears on these issues is reviewed.
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Risk Engineering, Sciences, Computation, and Informed Decisions, Phase II
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Wrong decisions during the missions can lead to an unsafe condition or immediate failure, while correct decisions can help continue the missions even from faulty...
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Volumetric radioassay of lead bricks being considered for unrestricted release
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gehrke, R.J.; Losinski, S.J.; Seal, G.L.
1995-01-01
The hardware, software, and a protocol have been developed for the screening of lead bricks for free release or recycle from the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The procedure for measuring the background from a sampling of ''clean'' lead bricks and for deducing the decision limits (in pCi/g) have been developed. At the decision limit, a radioactive lead brick would be detected with 95% confidence if it were present. The total and peak efficiencies of a 2.54-cm diameter x 2.54-cm high NaI(Tl) scintillation detector for the counting geometry of the present study were measured with a mixed radionuclide standard and calculated with a Monte Carlo program, CYLTRAN. The deduced decision limit for the counting conditions of the present study were 0.0588 pCi/g by analyzing the entire spectrum and 0.256 pCi/g by analyzing the 661-keV peak region for a 900-second count
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Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H
2011-06-01
Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.
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Take the First Heuristic, Self-Efficacy, and Decision-Making in Sport
Hepler, Teri J.; Feltz, Deborah L.
2012-01-01
Can taking the first (TTF) option in decision-making lead to the best decisions in sports contexts? And, is one's decision-making self-efficacy in that context linked to TTF decisions? The purpose of this study was to examine the role of the TTF heuristic and self-efficacy in decision-making on a simulated sports task. Undergraduate and graduate…
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Cognitive Phenotypes and the Evolution of Animal Decisions.
Mendelson, Tamra C; Fitzpatrick, Courtney L; Hauber, Mark E; Pence, Charles H; Rodríguez, Rafael L; Safran, Rebecca J; Stern, Caitlin A; Stevens, Jeffrey R
2016-11-01
Despite the clear fitness consequences of animal decisions, the science of animal decision making in evolutionary biology is underdeveloped compared with decision science in human psychology. Specifically, the field lacks a conceptual framework that defines and describes the relevant components of a decision, leading to imprecise language and concepts. The 'judgment and decision-making' (JDM) framework in human psychology is a powerful tool for framing and understanding human decisions, and we apply it here to components of animal decisions, which we refer to as 'cognitive phenotypes'. We distinguish multiple cognitive phenotypes in the context of a JDM framework and highlight empirical approaches to characterize them as evolvable traits. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Risk attitude in small timesaving decisions.
Munichor, Nira; Erev, Ido; Lotem, Arnon
2006-09-01
Four experiments are presented that explore situations in which a decision maker has to rely on personal experience in an attempt to minimize delays. Experiment 1 shows that risk-attitude in these timesaving decisions is similar to risk-attitude in money-related decisions from experience: A risky prospect is more attractive than a safer prospect with the same expected value only when it leads to a better outcome most of the time. Experiment 2 highlights a boundary condition: It suggests that a difficulty in ranking the relevant delays moves behavior toward random choice. Experiments 3 and 4 show that when actions must be taken during the delay (thereby helping compare delays), this increases the similarity of timesaving decisions to money-related decisions. In these settings the results reflect an increase in risk aversion with experience. The relationship of the results to the study of non-human time-related decisions, human money-related decisions and human time perception is discussed.
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Decision support using nonparametric statistics
Beatty, Warren
2018-01-01
This concise volume covers nonparametric statistics topics that most are most likely to be seen and used from a practical decision support perspective. While many degree programs require a course in parametric statistics, these methods are often inadequate for real-world decision making in business environments. Much of the data collected today by business executives (for example, customer satisfaction opinions) requires nonparametric statistics for valid analysis, and this book provides the reader with a set of tools that can be used to validly analyze all data, regardless of type. Through numerous examples and exercises, this book explains why nonparametric statistics will lead to better decisions and how they are used to reach a decision, with a wide array of business applications. Online resources include exercise data, spreadsheets, and solutions.
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Decision of Lead-Time Compression and Stable Operation of Supply Chain
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Songtao Zhang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A cost optimization strategy and a robust control strategy were studied to realize the low-cost robust operation of the supply chain with lead times. Firstly, for the multiple production lead times which existed in the supply chain, a corresponding inventory state model and a supply chain cost model were constructed based on the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy control system. Then, by considering the actual inventory level, the lead-time compression cost, and the stock-out cost, a cost optimization strategy was proposed. Furthermore, a fuzzy robust control strategy was proposed to realize the flexible switching among the models. Finally, the simulation results show that the total cost of the supply chain could be reduced effectively by the cost optimization strategy, and the stable operation of the supply chain could be realized by the proposed fuzzy robust control strategy.
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Siminoff, L A; Sandberg, D E
2015-05-01
Specific complaints and grievances from adult patients with disorders of sex development (DSD), and their advocates center around the lack of information or misinformation they were given about their condition and feeling stigmatized and shamed by the secrecy surrounding their condition and its management. Many also attribute poor sexual function to damaging genital surgery and/or repeated, insensitive genital examinations. These reports suggest the need to reconsider the decision-making process for the treatment of children born with DSD. This paper proposes that shared decision making, an important concept in adult health care, be operationalized for the major decisions commonly encountered in DSD care and facilitated through the utilization of decision aids and support tools. This approach may help patients and their families make informed decisions that are better aligned with their personal values and goals. It may also lead to greater confidence in decision making with greater satisfaction and less regret. A brief review of the past and current approach to DSD decision making is provided, along with a review of shared decision making and decision aids and support tools. A case study explores the need and potential utility of this suggested new approach. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
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Day, Emma; Jones, Louise; Langner, Richard; Stirling, L Caroline; Hough, Rachael; Bluebond-Langner, Myra
2018-03-01
We report on an in-depth interview and participant observation study that uses data from multiple sources to determine how the involvement of teenagers with leukaemia is understood and enacted in healthcare. In this article, we investigate healthcare professionals' (HCP) views of teenagers' involvement in decisions about their care and treatment for leukaemia. We conducted participant observation at 98 multi-disciplinary meetings and 95 open-ended, semi-structured interviews and informal conversations with clinical teenage cancer teams at one UK tertiary referral centre. Data were collected over a 9-month period, audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using principles of grounded theory. HCP revealed principles relating to the involvement of teenagers with leukaemia in decision making: (1) do the 'right thing', (2) act on the care and treatment preferences of the teenager and (3) openly disclose information about the teenagers' condition. These principles were prioritised and utilised uniquely in each situation, reliant on three mediating factors: (1) family communication styles, (2) stage of illness and (3) nature of the disease. Specialist haematology teams are aware of the individual, and shifting and situational preferences of teenagers. They follow the lead which teenagers give them with regard to these preferences. If actual practice with regard to the involvement of teenagers is found to be wanting, this study refutes that this should be ascribed to insensitivity on the part of HCP about teenagers informational and decisional role preferences. © 2017 The Authors. Pediatric Blood & Cancer Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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List of Speakers and Hearing Schedule for the October 28 Public Hearing on the proposed Revisions to the Federal Implementation Plans to Reduce Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone.
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Sexual picture processing interferes with decision-making under ambiguity.
Laier, Christian; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Brand, Matthias
2014-04-01
Many people watch sexually arousing material on the Internet in order to receive sexual arousal and gratification. When browsing for sexual stimuli, individuals have to make several decisions, all possibly leading to positive or negative consequences. Decision-making research has shown that decisions under ambiguity are influenced by consequences received following earlier decisions. Sexual arousal might interfere with the decision-making process and should therefore lead to disadvantageous decision-making in the long run. In the current study, 82 heterosexual, male participants watched sexual pictures, rated them with respect to sexual arousal, and were asked to indicate their current level of sexual arousal before and following the sexual picture presentation. Afterwards, subjects performed one of two modified versions of the Iowa Gambling Task in which sexual pictures were displayed on the advantageous and neutral pictures on the disadvantageous card decks or vice versa (n = 41/n = 41). Results demonstrated an increase of sexual arousal following the sexual picture presentation. Decision-making performance was worse when sexual pictures were associated with disadvantageous card decks compared to performance when the sexual pictures were linked to the advantageous decks. Subjective sexual arousal moderated the relationship between task condition and decision-making performance. This study emphasized that sexual arousal interfered with decision-making, which may explain why some individuals experience negative consequences in the context of cybersex use.
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Guide to Decision-Making Getting it more right than wrong
Drummond, Helga
2012-01-01
We make decisions, and these decisions make us and our organisations. And in theory, decision-making should be easy: a problem is identified, the decision-makers generate solutions, and choose the optimal one - and powerful mathematical tools are available to facilitate the task. Yet if it is all so simple why do organisations, both private and public sector, keep making mistakes - the results of which are borne by shareholders, employees, taxpayers and ultimately society at large? This guide to decision making. by leading decision science academic Helga Drummond, aims to improve decision-maki
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State Firearm Laws and Interstate Transfer of Guns in the USA, 2006-2016.
Collins, Tessa; Greenberg, Rachael; Siegel, Michael; Xuan, Ziming; Rothman, Emily F; Cronin, Shea W; Hemenway, David
2018-06-01
In a cross-sectional, panel study, we examined the relationship between state firearm laws and the extent of interstate transfer of guns, as measured by the percentage of crime guns recovered in a state and traced to an in-state source (as opposed to guns recovered in a state and traced to an out-of-state source). We used 2006-2016 data on state firearm laws obtained from a search of selected state statutes and 2006-2016 crime gun trace data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives. We examined the relationship between state firearm laws and interstate transfer of guns using annual data from all 50 states during the period 2006-2016 and employing a two-way fixed effects model. The primary outcome variable was the percentage of crime guns recovered in a state that could be traced to an original point of purchase within that state as opposed to another state. The main exposure variables were eight specific state firearm laws pertaining to dealer licensing, sales restrictions, background checks, registration, prohibitors for firearm purchase, and straw purchase of guns. Four laws were independently associated with a significantly lower percentage of in-state guns: a waiting period for handgun purchase, permits required for firearm purchase, prohibition of firearm possession by people convicted of a violent misdemeanor, and a requirement for relinquishment of firearms when a person becomes disqualified from owning them. States with a higher number of gun laws had a lower percentage of traced guns to in-state dealers, with each increase of one in the total number of laws associated with a decrease of 1.6 percentage points in the proportion of recovered guns that were traced to an in-state as opposed to an out-of-state source. Based on an examination of the movement patterns of guns across states, the overall observed pattern of gun flow was out of states with weak gun laws and into states with strong gun laws. These findings indicate that certain
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Anemia risk in relation to lead exposure in lead-related manufacturing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nan-Hung Hsieh
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Lead-exposed workers may suffer adverse health effects under the currently regulated blood lead (BPb levels. However, a probabilistic assessment about lead exposure-associated anemia risk is lacking. The goal of this study was to examine the association between lead exposure and anemia risk among factory workers in Taiwan. Methods We first collated BPb and indicators of hematopoietic function data via health examination records that included 533 male and 218 female lead-exposed workers between 2012 and 2014. We used benchmark dose (BMD modeling to estimate the critical effect doses for detection of abnormal indicators. A risk-based probabilistic model was used to characterize the potential hazard of lead poisoning for job-specific workers by hazard index (HI. We applied Bayesian decision analysis to determine whether BMD could be implicated as a suitable BPb standard. Results Our results indicated that HI for total lead-exposed workers was 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.50–1.26 with risk occurrence probability of 11.1%. The abnormal risk of anemia indicators for male and female workers could be reduced, respectively, by 67–77% and 86–95% by adopting the suggested BPb standards of 25 and 15 μg/dL. Conclusions We conclude that cumulative exposure to lead in the workplace was significantly associated with anemia risk. This study suggests that current BPb standard needs to be better understood for the application of lead-exposed population protection in different scenarios to provide a novel standard for health management. Low-level lead exposure risk is an occupational and public health problem that should be paid more attention.
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Ethical factors influencing decisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feldhaus, S.
1993-01-01
Ethics are determined by weighing risks against benefits, pros against cons, but also by evasion. Whenever decisions are taken, the side effects and risks to be accepted must be weighed. In law, this is called the principle of commensurability implying that ethical compromises are made. Too much emphasis on ethical principles leads to an evasion of realistic action. In consensus discussions it is often seen that the positions adopted by science and technology are incommensurable with those of philosophy, psychology, and theology. Any decision requires that the risk be evaluated in a spirit of responsibility. (orig.) [de
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Fuzzy-like multiple objective multistage decision making
Xu, Jiuping
2014-01-01
Decision has inspired reflection of many thinkers since the ancient times. With the rapid development of science and society, appropriate dynamic decision making has been playing an increasingly important role in many areas of human activity including engineering, management, economy and others. In most real-world problems, decision makers usually have to make decisions sequentially at different points in time and space, at different levels for a component or a system, while facing multiple and conflicting objectives and a hybrid uncertain environment where fuzziness and randomness co-exist in a decision making process. This leads to the development of fuzzy-like multiple objective multistage decision making. This book provides a thorough understanding of the concepts of dynamic optimization from a modern perspective and presents the state-of-the-art methodology for modeling, analyzing and solving the most typical multiple objective multistage decision making practical application problems under fuzzy-like un...
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Vitamin-Fortified Snack Food May Lead Consumers to Make Poor Dietary Decisions.
Verrill, Linda; Wood, Dallas; Cates, Sheryl; Lando, Amy; Zhang, Yuanting
2017-03-01
The US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) fortification policy discourages the fortification of certain foods, including sugars and snack foods such as cookies, candies, cakes, chips, and carbonated beverages, yet manufacturers sometimes add vitamins and minerals to snack foods. To assess whether vitamin-fortified snack foods affect consumers' information-seeking, purchase decisions, and product-related health perceptions. For this experimental study, participants were randomly assigned to study conditions to compare products that varied in product type, nutrition profile, and fortification and nutrient claim status. Data were collected via an online consumer panel. US adults aged 18 years and older were randomly selected from Research Now's e-panel online household panel. Data were collected during fall 2014 (N=5,076). Participants were randomly assigned to one of 24 conditions: two products (vegetable chip/potato chip), two nutrition profiles (healthier/less healthy), two fortification scenarios (not fortified/fortified), and three nutrient claim conditions (two no claim/one with claim). The design was not balanced; claims were not shown on products that were not vitamin fortified. Outcome measures were information-seeking (viewed the Nutrition Facts label), purchase decisions, perception of product healthfulness, and correct selection of product with the healthier nutrient profile. Logistic regression was used to test all models. Analyses was adjusted for general label use, consumes product, health status, age, sex, level of education, presence of children in the household, and race/ethnicity. When the snack food carried a nutrient claim for vitamin fortification, participants were 1) less likely to look for nutrition information on the Nutrition Facts label, 2) more likely to select the product for purchase, 3) more likely to perceive the product as healthier, and 4) less likely to correctly choose the healthier product. Snack foods that have been vitamin
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Guidelines for evaluation and treatment of lead poisoning of wild raptors
Fallon, Jesse A.; Redig, Patrick; Miller, Tricia A.; Lanzone, Michael J.; Katzner, Todd
2017-01-01
Lead poisoning is a threat to birds, particularly scavenging birds of prey. With the availability of portable lead-testing kits, an increasing number of field researchers are testing wild-caught birds, in situ, for lead poisoning. We describe guidelines for evaluation of lead toxicity in wild raptors by outlining field testing of blood-lead concentrations, presenting criteria for removing a lead-poisoned bird from the wild for treatment, and suggesting strategies for effective treatment of lead intoxicated raptors. Field testing of birds is most commonly accomplished via portable electrochemical analysis of blood; visual observation of condition alone may provide insufficient evidence upon which to make a decision about lead poisoning. Our intended audience is not only the avian research community, but also rehabilitation facilities that may receive apparently uninjured birds. Best practices suggest that birds whose blood-lead levels are 60 μg/dL are potentially lethally poisoned and best served if removed from the wild for appropriate treatment at a licensed rehabilitation facility and later released. We present guidelines for decision-making when treating lead poisoning of wild raptors. Future work based on experimental studies will clarify the role of lead poisoning for specific species and be important to refine these guidelines to improve effectiveness.
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Arnold, Erin M.; Hanser, Steven E.; Regan, Tempe; Thompson, Jeremy; Lowe, Melinda; Kociolek, Angela; Belthoff, James R.
2018-01-01
Highway programs typically focus on reducing vehicle collisions with large mammals because of economic or safety reasons while overlooking the millions of birds that die annually from traffic. We studied wildlife‐vehicle collisions along an interstate highway in southern Idaho, USA, with among the highest reported rates of American Barn Owl Tyto furcata road mortality. Carcass data from systematic and ad hoc surveys conducted in 2004–2006 and 2013–2015 were used to explore the extent to which spatial, road geometric, and biotic factors explained Barn Owl‐vehicle collisions. Barn Owls outnumbered all other identified vertebrate species of roadkill and represented > 25% of individuals and 73.6% of road‐killed birds. At a 1‐km highway segment scale, the number of dead Barn Owls decreased with increasing numbers of human structures, cumulative length of secondary roads near the highway, and width of the highway median. Number of dead Barn Owls increased with higher commercial average annual daily traffic (CAADT), small mammal abundance index, and with grass rather than shrubs in the roadside verge. The small mammal abundance index was also greater in roadsides with grass versus mixed shrubs, suggesting that Barn Owls may be attracted to grassy portions of the highway with more abundant small mammals for hunting prey. When assessed at a 3‐km highway segment scale, the number of dead Barn Owls again increased with higher CAADT as well as with greater numbers of dairy farms. At a 5‐km scale, number of dead Barn Owls increased with greater percentage of cropland near the highway. While human conversion of the environment from natural shrub‐steppe to irrigated agriculture in this region of Idaho has likely enhanced habitat for Barns Owls, it simultaneously has increased risk for owl‐vehicle collisions where an interstate highway traverses the altered landscape. We review some approaches for highway mitigation and suggest that reducing wildlife
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Family decision-making during food buying
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nørgaard, Maria Kümpel
Decision-making during food buying is a joint family activity involving both parents and children. Children manage to achieve a high degree of influence on many decisions, among other things, because they participate actively and help out doing various tasks. These decisions may turn out...... to be a choice of unhealthy food. Many decisions are made at the supermarket or other food shops, and food packaging is often used in the comparison of food products. Only rarely do families use nutritional information on food labels due to several problems in the understanding of these labels; this may result...... in difficulties in distinguishing among healthy and unhealthy food. Both parents and children being active in the decision process may lead to conflicts due to gaps in preference such as between healthy and unhealthy food. Families solve these conflicts via open communication patterns and a use of various...
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Serotonin and decision making processes.
Homberg, Judith R
2012-01-01
Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Naturalistic decision-making in expert badminton players.
Macquet, A C; Fleurance, P
2007-09-01
This paper reports on a study of naturalistic decision-making in expert badminton players. These decisions are frequently taken under time-pressured conditions, yet normally lead to successful performance. Two male badminton teams participated in this study. Self-confrontation interviews were used to collect data. Inductive data analysis revealed three types of intentions during a rally: to maintain the rally; to take the advantage; and to finish the point. It also revealed eight types of decision taken in this situation: to ensure an action; to observe the opponent's response to an action; to realize a limited choice; to influence the opponent's decision; to put pressure on an opponent; to surprise the opponent; to reproduce an efficient action; and to play wide. A frequent decision was to put pressure on the opponent. Different information and knowledge was linked to specific decisions. The results are discussed in relation to research that has considered naturalistic decision-making.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kecklund, Lena; Petterson, Sara
2008-04-01
The first report contained a summary of relevant research of decision making, a case study at Ringhals power plant and an analysis of some real cases of operational readiness decisions. In this report two case studies in the Swedish power plants, OKG and Forsmark are presented. The case study description consists of three parts; a description of the support from the management system for the decision making process, interviews with decision makers and an analysis of real cases of operational readiness decisions. The purpose of the project has been to increase the understanding of the decision process in operational readiness decisions as well as the support given from the management system and what factors influence the decisions. From a general point of view the circumstances where the decision must be taken varies, but situations and events that lead to questioning of the operational readiness are often easy to identify. There are often support documents such as procedures, rules and technical documents which specify operational limitations which give explicit decision criteria. These decisions are easy. When needed colleagues can be consulted for support. In unclear situations and/or when the technical criteria is not clear, e.g. when the rules and regulations are vague or even in conflict or when it is not evident that you need to question the operational readiness, the decision is more difficult to make. The results from the study shows that such decisions in general are not made by the shift crew manager but handed over to the next management level. The decision making process differs between the power plants. At one of the power plants the decision process is organised in specific meetings where decision made are reviewed by the next higher management level. At another plant the decisions are often made in groups or in consultation with colleagues. The management system makes a distinction between decisions made in consultation and when decisions already
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Licensing Surrogate Decision-Makers.
Rosoff, Philip M
2017-06-01
As medical technology continues to improve, more people will live longer lives with multiple chronic illnesses with increasing cumulative debilitation, including cognitive dysfunction. Combined with the aging of society in most developed countries, an ever-growing number of patients will require surrogate decision-makers. While advance care planning by patients still capable of expressing their preferences about medical interventions and end-of-life care can improve the quality and accuracy of surrogate decisions, this is often not the case, not infrequently leading to demands for ineffective, inappropriate and prolonged interventions. In 1980 LaFollette called for the licensing of prospective parents, basing his argument on the harm they can do to vulnerable people (children). In this paper, I apply his arguments to surrogate decision-makers for cognitively incapacitated patients, rhetorically suggesting that we require potential surrogates to qualify for this position by demonstrating their ability to make reasonable and rational decisions for others. I employ this theoretical approach to argue that the loose criteria by which we authorize surrogates' generally unchallenged power should be reconsidered.
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Alden, Dana L; Friend, John; Chun, Maria B J
2013-11-01
As the health care field moves toward patient-centered care (PCC), increasing emphasis has been placed on the benefits of patient decision aids for promoting shared decision making (SDM). This study provides a baseline measure of knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) among Hawai'i's physicians with respect to patient decision aids (DAs). Physicians throughout the State of Hawai'i were invited to complete a survey assessing their knowledge, attitudes, and practices with respect to the clinical use of DAs. One hundred and seventy four valid surveys were analyzed. Reported awareness and use of DAs were low, but recognition of the benefits of SDM and openness to the use of DAs were very high. The leading perceived barriers to the implementation of DAs were lack of awareness, lack of resources, and limited physician time to learn about DA technology. However, a significant majority of the respondents reported that DAs could empower patients by improving knowledge (88%), increasing satisfaction with the consultation process (81%), and increasing compliance (74%). Among physicians currently employing DAs, use of brochures or options matrix sheets was the most common aid tool. However, leading recommended DA formats were paper-based brochures for clinic use (75%) and interactive online website programs for outside clinic use (73.5%). Given growing emphasis on the PCC model and the recognized desire of many patients to participate in the medical decision making process, positive responses toward SDM and the use of DAs by Hawai'i physicians are promising.
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Munson, Mark; Lieberman, Harvey; Tserlin, Elina; Rocnik, Jennifer; Ge, Jie; Fitzgerald, Maria; Patel, Vinod; Garcia-Echeverria, Carlos
2015-08-01
Herein, we report a novel and general method, lead optimization attrition analysis (LOAA), to benchmark two distinct small-molecule lead series using a relatively unbiased, simple technique and commercially available software. We illustrate this approach with data collected during lead optimization of two independent oncology programs as a case study. Easily generated graphics and attrition curves enabled us to calibrate progress and support go/no go decisions on each program. We believe that this data-driven technique could be used broadly by medicinal chemists and management to guide strategic decisions during drug discovery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Decision making uncertainty, imperfection, deliberation and scalability
Kárný, Miroslav; Wolpert, David
2015-01-01
This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selfish decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: • task allocation to maximize “the wisdom of the crowd”; • design of a society of “edutainment” robots who account for one anothers’ emotional states; • recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; • coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; • efficiently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized...
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Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk Are Not the Same As in Decisions Under Uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kirsten G Volz
2012-07-01
Full Text Available We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (small world, all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (large worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries, with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift towards studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brown, O.F. II
1978-01-01
While the nuclear industry is beset on many sides by opposition and uncertainty, notable success has been achieved to date by fighting railroads that would impose onerous restrictions on the transportation of nuclear materials on their own battleground. Regardless of how commercial spent nuclear fuel is ultimately handled, it must eventually be shipped from reactor sites. The most efficient method for doing this is generally by railroad. The railroads of the Nation have contended either that they are not common carriers for the transportation of radioactive materials, or if common carriers, that the carriage must be by the use of special trains and special operating procedures at great additional expense. The rationale for this railroad position has been principally one of concern with regard to the hazards presented and the adequacy of safety regulations and insurance-indemnity coverage. The nuclear industry, realizing that, if the railroads prevailed, the added cost per year by the mid-1980s could be about $600 million and that extensive safety precautions had been provided, challenged the railroads' positions before the Interstate Commerce Commission. This paper will describe the position of the nuclear industry in opposing unnecessary restrictions sought to be imposed by the railroads, including the uncertainties presented by the lack of published tariffs, the risks of carriage with and without added requirements, the insurance-indemnity coverage available, and the need for railroad transportation. As of this time, the Interstate Commerce Commission has concurred with the position of the nuclear shippers and has found the railroads' positions unreasonable and in violation of applicable laws. This legal battle, however, will continue until finally concluded by the ICC or by the courts if appeals are taken
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Kim, Scott Y H
2014-04-01
The Patient Preference Predictor (PPP) proposal places a high priority on the accuracy of predicting patients' preferences and finds the performance of surrogates inadequate. However, the quest to develop a highly accurate, individualized statistical model has significant obstacles. First, it will be impossible to validate the PPP beyond the limit imposed by 60%-80% reliability of people's preferences for future medical decisions--a figure no better than the known average accuracy of surrogates. Second, evidence supports the view that a sizable minority of persons may not even have preferences to predict. Third, many, perhaps most, people express their autonomy just as much by entrusting their loved ones to exercise their judgment than by desiring to specifically control future decisions. Surrogate decision making faces none of these issues and, in fact, it may be more efficient, accurate, and authoritative than is commonly assumed.
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Chinese business managers' moral decision-making
LIN, NASA
2011-01-01
The topic of this thesis is about moral decision-making, and the main objective of this study is to research the moral decision-making of Chinese business managers based on the analysis of data. The study adopts systematic literature of qualitative research method and is constructed by means of qualitative analysis of 64 data articles. The 64 data articles are the journals from the Database of Chinese Academic Journals, Journal of Business Ethics and other leading business journals from the y...
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Nonrational processes in ethical decision making.
Rogerson, Mark D; Gottlieb, Michael C; Handelsman, Mitchell M; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey
2011-10-01
Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasilegal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior, including context, perceptions, relationships, emotions, and heuristics. For example, a large body of behavioral research has demonstrated the importance of automatic intuitive and affective processes in decision making and judgment. These processes profoundly affect human behavior and lead to systematic biases and departures from normative theories of rationality. Their influence represents an important but largely unrecognized component of ethical decision making. We selectively review this work; provide various illustrations; and make recommendations for scientists, trainers, and practitioners to aid them in integrating the understanding of nonrational processes with ethical decision making.
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77 FR 4829 - Emilio Luna, M.D.; Decision and Order
2012-01-31
... Registrant with distributing child pornography in interstate commerce. Id. The Order further alleged that on... practicing medicine and it was a widely publicized fact that Registrant was a fugitive from justice and..., Registrant was also the holder of an allopathic medicine license issued by the Arizona Medical Board. GX 2...
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Memory reflected in our decisions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Todd McElroy
2010-04-01
Full Text Available The current study looks at the role working memory plays in risky-choice framing. Eighty-six participants took the Automatic OSPAN, a measurement of working memory; this was followed by a risky-choice framing task. Participants with high working memory capacities demonstrated well pronounced framing effects, while those with low working memory capacities did not. This pattern suggests that, in a typical risky-choice decision task, elaborative encoding of task information by those with high working memory capacity may lead them to a more biased decision compared to those with low working memory.
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Stress effects on framed decisions: there are differences for gains and losses.
Pabst, Stephan; Brand, Matthias; Wolf, Oliver T
2013-01-01
Recent studies have shown that acute stress can lead to riskier decision making. Yet, the underlying mechanisms of the stress effects on decisions under risk remain poorly understood. To gain a better understanding of decision-making processes and potential strategy application under stress, we investigated decision making in pure gain and loss domains with unequal expected values (EVs) across alternatives. We conducted an experimental study with a 2 × 2 design (stress vs. no stress and gain domain vs. loss domain). The Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) was utilized to induce acute stress. Controls performed the placebo-TSST (p-TSST). To validate the stress response we measured salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase concentrations. We used a modified version of the Game of Dice Task (GDT) to assess decision-making performance in a gain and a loss domain. Results showed that non-stressed participants made less risky decisions in the gain domain compared to those of the loss domain. This behavior is in accordance with previous studies and indicates the stability of the framing effect in even more complex tasks with changing EVs across alternatives. Stress did not alter risk taking behavior in the gain domain. Yet, in the loss domain stressed participants made less risky decisions compared to controls. Additionally, the data support earlier findings of longer reaction times in loss compared to gain domains due to higher cognitive effort for loss-framed decisions. It is discussed that stress may lead to reduced amygdala activation, which has been found to reduce riskier decisions in a loss domain. With respect to earlier results of riskier decisions in tasks that unite both gain and loss domains, it is discussed whether stress leads to a stronger evaluation of high gains and a neglect of losses.
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Aggregate assessments support improved operational decision making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bauer, R.
2003-01-01
At Darlington Nuclear aggregate assessment of plant conditions is carried out in support of Operational Decision Making. This paper discusses how aggregate assessments have been applied to Operator Workarounds leading to improved prioritisation and alignment of work programs in different departments. As well, aggregate assessment of plant and human performance factors has been carried out to identify criteria which support conservative decision making in the main control room during unit transients. (author)
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Implementing shared decision-making: consider all the consequences.
Elwyn, Glyn; Frosch, Dominick L; Kobrin, Sarah
2016-08-08
The ethical argument that shared decision-making is "the right" thing to do, however laudable, is unlikely to change how healthcare is organized, just as evidence alone will be an insufficient factor: practice change is governed by factors such as cost, profit margin, quality, and efficiency. It is helpful, therefore, when evaluating new approaches such as shared decision-making to conceptualize potential consequences in a way that is broad, long-term, and as relevant as possible to multiple stakeholders. Yet, so far, evaluation metrics for shared decision-making have been mostly focused on short-term outcomes, such as cognitive or affective consequences in patients. The goal of this article is to hypothesize a wider set of consequences, that apply over an extended time horizon, and include outcomes at interactional, team, organizational and system levels, and to call for future research to study these possible consequences. To date, many more studies have evaluated patient decision aids rather than other approaches to shared decision-making, and the outcomes measured have typically been focused on short-term cognitive and affective outcomes, for example knowledge and decisional conflict. From a clinicians perspective, the shared decision-making process could be viewed as either intrinsically rewarding and protective, or burdensome and impractical, yet studies have not focused on the impact on professionals, either positive or negative. At interactional levels, group, team, and microsystem, the potential long-term consequences could include the development of a culture where deliberation and collaboration are regarded as guiding principles, where patients are coached to assess the value of interventions, to trade-off benefits versus harms, and assess their burdens-in short, to new social norms in the clinical workplace. At organizational levels, consistent shared decision-making might boost patient experience evaluations and lead to fewer complaints and legal
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Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting
Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris
2016-04-01
Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brockbank, B.R.
1995-03-01
In the past two years, public and private efforts to promote development and deployment of innovative environmental technologies have shifted from the analysis of barriers to the implementation of a variety of initiatives aimed at surmounting those barriers. Particular attention has been directed at (1) streamlining fragmented technology acceptance processes within and among the states, and (2) alleviating disincentives, created by inadequate or unverified technology cost and performance data, for users and regulators to choose innovative technologies. Market fragmentation currently imposes significant cost burdens on technology developers and inhibits the investment of private capital in environmental technology companies. Among the responses to these problems are state and federal technology certification/validation programs, efforts to standardize cost/performance data reporting, and initiatives aimed at promoting interstate cooperation in technology testing and evaluation. This paper reviews the current status of these initiatives, identifies critical challenges to their success, and recommends strategies for addressing those challenges
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Austrägalgerichtsbarkeit – Interstate Dispute Settlement in a Confederate Arrangement, 1815 to 1866
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jakob Zollmann
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This article analyses the interstate dispute settlement mechanisms between member states of the German Confederation (Deutscher Bund. The question as to how disputes between German sovereigns should be decided already had a long (pre-history dating back to the Middle Ages. Article 11 IV of the German Federal Act (1815 (Bundesakte was the basic norm of the so-called Austrägal jurisdiction enacted to resolve disputes between states of the German Confederation and stipulated the manner in which the dispute was to be brought to ›court‹ (Austrägalinstanz. During the period of the German Confederation, 10 out of 25 German courts of third instance handled altogether 54 Austrägal cases. Whereas Austrägal jurisdiction was no longer present in the German Kaiserreich, Emperor William II and the professor of public law Paul Laband attempted to resurrect the idea, but failed due to the resistance of the other German princes.
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Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions
Chikalov, Igor
2011-01-01
In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be \\'over-fitted\\', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes, it is more appropriate to work with partial decision rules with smaller number of attributes. Based on results for set cover problem authors study bounds on accuracy of greedy algorithm for exact and partial decision rule construction, and complexity of the problem of minimization of decision rule length. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.
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Intergroup conflict and rational decision making.
Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín
2014-01-01
The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.
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Intergroup Conflict and Rational Decision Making
Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A.; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín
2014-01-01
The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict –associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)– has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making. PMID:25461384
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Intergroup conflict and rational decision making.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vicente Martínez-Tur
Full Text Available The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.
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Better Data Help Make Better Decisions: Disseminating Information During Hurricane Harvey
Conner, K.; Lindner, J.; Moore, M.
2017-12-01
During large scale natural disasters, like hurricane Harvey, time-critical decisions are made on a constant basis. From evacuation orders, allocation of emergency resources, or allowing people to return home, decisions are only as good as the information upon which they are based. Better real-time data lead to better decisions which ultimately leads to improved disaster response and recovery. In 2015 Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) in Houston, TX began upgrading their automatic flood warning system (FWS) that dates back to the 1980s. The HCFCD network consists of 154 remote stations that report precipitation intensities and stream levels in near real time. Since the upgrades were completed in 2016 the Houston area has experienced multiple 100+ rain events, the most recent being Hurricane Harvey. The FWS generated accurate, reliable, real-time data throughout the entirety of the record breaking, four-day event. This information was disseminated to state, local and federal agencies, news outlets and the public via web sites and social media. Without this quality of data, disaster management decisions could not have been made effectively, ultimately leading to greater destruction of property and loss of life.
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Railroad perspective on transportation of spent fuel and high level waste and recent ICC decisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paschall, J.R.
1978-01-01
This paper attempts to summarize some railroad viewpoints on issues concerning transportation of spent fuel and high-level waste and to outline Interstate Commerce Commission decisions arising over differing opinions about the manner of such transportation. Although the railroad position includes a number of legal arguments, it also involves operating expertise and a number of well-based questions concerning the safety of casks under actual operating conditions in regular trains. The commonly-used estimates of accident frequency and severity in regular trains are severe underestimates based on a mistake in the annual number of railroad car-miles, inadequacies in and misunderstanding of accident reporting, and invalid assumptions, especially concerning fires, which some actual data suggest are far more frequent than assumed. Thus, railroads estimate casks could be involved in at least 12 accidents involving severe fires by 1990. A number of unanswered questions about casks and perceived inadequacies in testing lead to a conservative railroad position. These include the possibility of escape routes of materials other than by breach such as weld and pressure relief valve failures and direct radiation hazards through loss of shielding. These doubts are fostered through experience with accidents more severe than those used in testing or certification as well as these questions. Also, there is doubt concerning the integrity of fuel rod cladding (used as a second level of containment) in credible accident situations. Moreover, the damage estimates of $1,000 per man rem have been shown to have no relationship to damages in a transportation accident.Added safety is expected in special trains for at least 17 reasons involving speed, transit time, routing, train consist, crew alertness, reduced slack and other reduced hazards and accident opportunities
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Fuzzy rationality and parameter elicitation in decision analysis
Nikolova, Natalia D.; Tenekedjiev, Kiril I.
2010-07-01
It is widely recognised by decision analysts that real decision-makers always make estimates in an interval form. An overview of techniques to find an optimal alternative among such with imprecise and interval probabilities is presented. Scalarisation methods are outlined as most appropriate. A proper continuation of such techniques is fuzzy rational (FR) decision analysis. A detailed representation of the elicitation process influenced by fuzzy rationality is given. The interval character of probabilities leads to the introduction of ribbon functions, whose general form and special cases are compared with the p-boxes. As demonstrated, approximation of utilities in FR decision analysis does not depend on the probabilities, but the approximation of probabilities is dependent on preferences.
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The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making: An Exploratory ... lead to the failure to achieve projected performance. ... the use of multiple regression analysis model to forecast the stock market activities of each sector ... making, and that these decisions must be congruent with the company strategy.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Johnson, Paul E
2007-01-01
An article of similar title was published in the International Journal of Radioactive Materials Transport in 1999. The study concluded that the daytime and nighttime populations are not substantially different for the metropolitan areas examined. This study revisits the issue, but using the LandScan USA high resolution population distribution data, which includes daytime and night-time population. Segments of Interstate highway beltways, along with the direct route through the city, for Atlanta, St. Louis, and Kansas City are examined with an 800m buffer from either side of the highways. The day/night ratio of population is higher using the LandScan USA data. LandScan USA daytime and night-time data will be incorporated into the TRAGIS routing model in future
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Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions
Chikalov, Igor; Zielosko, Beata
2011-01-01
In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be 'over-fitted', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hua-Ming Song
2011-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the ordering decisions and coordination mechanism for a distributed short-life-cycle supply chain. The objective is to maximize the whole supply chain's expected profit and meanwhile make the supply chain participants achieve a Pareto improvement. We treat lead time as a controllable variable, thus the demand forecast is dependent on lead time: the shorter lead time, the better forecast. Moreover, optimal decision-making models for lead time and order quantity are formulated and compared in the decentralized and centralized cases. Besides, a three-parameter contract is proposed to coordinate the supply chain and alleviate the double margin in the decentralized scenario. In addition, based on the analysis of the models, we develop an algorithmic procedure to find the optimal ordering decisions. Finally, a numerical example is also presented to illustrate the results.
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Equity trade-offs in conservation decision making.
Law, Elizabeth A; Bennett, Nathan J; Ives, Christopher D; Friedman, Rachel; Davis, Katrina J; Archibald, Carla; Wilson, Kerrie A
2018-04-01
Conservation decisions increasingly involve multiple environmental and social objectives, which result in complex decision contexts with high potential for trade-offs. Improving social equity is one such objective that is often considered an enabler of successful outcomes and a virtuous ideal in itself. Despite its idealized importance in conservation policy, social equity is often highly simplified or ill-defined and is applied uncritically. What constitutes equitable outcomes and processes is highly normative and subject to ethical deliberation. Different ethical frameworks may lead to different conceptions of equity through alternative perspectives of what is good or right. This can lead to different and potentially conflicting equity objectives in practice. We promote a more transparent, nuanced, and pluralistic conceptualization of equity in conservation decision making that particularly recognizes where multidimensional equity objectives may conflict. To help identify and mitigate ethical conflicts and avoid cases of good intentions producing bad outcomes, we encourage a more analytical incorporation of equity into conservation decision making particularly during mechanistic integration of equity objectives. We recommend that in conservation planning motivations and objectives for equity be made explicit within the problem context, methods used to incorporate equity objectives be applied with respect to stated objectives, and, should objectives dictate, evaluation of equity outcomes and adaptation of strategies be employed during policy implementation. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.
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Hyperchaotic phenomena in dynamic decision making
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thomsen, Jesper Skovhus; Mosekilde, Erik; Sterman, John David
1992-01-01
of this article is to show how the decision making behavior of real people in simulated corporate environments can lead to chaotic, hyperchaotic and higher-order hyperchaotic phenomena. Characteristics features of these complicated forms of behavior are analyzed with particular emphasis on an interesting form...
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Field Measurement and Calibration of HDM-4 Fuel Consumption Model on Interstate Highway in Florida
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xin Jiao
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Fuel consumptions are measured by operating passenger car and tractor-trailer on two interstate roadway sites in Florida. Each site contains flexible pavement and rigid pavement with similar pavement, traffic and environmental condition. Field test reveals that the average fuel consumption differences between vehicle operating on flexible pavement and rigid pavement at given test condition are 4.04% for tractor-trailer and 2.50% for passenger car, with a fuel saving on rigid pavement. The fuel consumption differences are found statistically significant at 95% confidence level for both vehicle types. Test data are then used to calibrate the Highway Development and Management IV (HDM-4 fuel consumption model and model coefficients are obtained for three sets of observations. Field measurement and prediction by calibrated model shows generally good agreement. Nevertheless, verification and adjustment with more experiment or data sources would be expected in future studies.
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Treatment decisions under ambiguity.
Berger, Loïc; Bleichrodt, Han; Eeckhoudt, Louis
2013-05-01
Many health risks are ambiguous in the sense that reliable and credible information about these risks is unavailable. In health economics, ambiguity is usually handled through sensitivity analysis, which implicitly assumes that people are neutral towards ambiguity. However, empirical evidence suggests that people are averse to ambiguity and react strongly to it. This paper studies the effects of ambiguity aversion on two classical medical decision problems. If there is ambiguity regarding the diagnosis of a patient, ambiguity aversion increases the decision maker's propensity to opt for treatment. On the other hand, in the case of ambiguity regarding the effects of treatment, ambiguity aversion leads to a reduction in the propensity to choose treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Worked Examples Leads to Better Performance in Analyzing and Solving Real-Life Decision Cases
Cevik, Yasemin Demiraslan; Andre, Thomas
2012-01-01
This study compared the impact of three types of case-based methods (worked example, faded worked example, and case-based reasoning) on preservice teachers' (n=71) decision making and reasoning related to realistic classroom management situations. Participants in this study received a short-term implementation of one of these three major…
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Xabier ETXEBERRIA MAULEON
2016-01-01
The text deals with the existing ethical tension between decision-making on behalf of people with intellectual disabilities and substitute decision-making, and the duty-bound respect for the person’s autonomy. The work begins by distinguishing decision- making on behalf of someone and substitute decision-making, consequently favoring the latter, as well as relating autonomy to interdependence. This first clarification leads to the construction of a basic and general criterion for substitute d...
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Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station: an example of the state role in regional nuclear projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pasternak, A.
1980-10-01
A nuclear power plant siting policy which confines new construction to existing sites will lead to the formation of large regional power centers, each involving many utilities from several states. The Palo Verde Nuclear Project in Arizona has been examined in terms of the role state regulation plays in large regional nuclear projects. State regulatory processes do not reflect the regional nature of large power centers. Decisions and actions by individual state regulatory commissions create risk and uncertainty for all the utility participants in regional projects. A climate and mechanism to encourage and facilitate interstate cooperation are needed to enhance the viability of the confined siting policy and the regional power center concept
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A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management
Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang
2017-01-01
Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.
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RBEC lead-bismuth cooled fast reactor: review of conceptual decisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alekseev, P.; Fomichenko, P.; Mikityuk, K.; Nevinitsa, V.; Shchepetina, T.; Subbotin, S.; Vasiliev, A.
2001-01-01
A concept of the RBEC lead-bismuth fast reactor-breeder is a synthesis, on one hand, of more than 40-year experience in development and operation of fast sodium power reactors and reactors with Pb-Bi coolant for nuclear submarines, and, on the other hand, of large R and D activities on development of the core concept for modified fast sodium reactor. The report briefly presents main parameters of the RBEC reactor, as a candidate for commercial exploitation in structure of the future nuclear power. (author)
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Ethical decision making within the bureaucratic context: a case study.
Desai, Kathryn
2003-01-01
Balancing the polarized notions of quality and quantity of service and care is a challenge for the 21st century health and social service system. The expectation of transparent decision making at both the policy and the practice level of case management has forced practitioners to seek guidance in ethical decision making. Case management, as a system, has potential to lead this new practice approach by incorporating the principles of ethical decision making in planning and coordinating care. A recent case study of ethical decision making within the bureaucratic context offers some insight and learning and may help inform future practice.
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Stress effects on framed decisions: there are differences for gains and losses
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stephan ePabst
2013-10-01
Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that acute stress can lead to riskier decision making. Yet, the underlying mechanisms of the stress effects on decisions under risk remain poorly understood. To gain a better understanding of decision-making processes and potential strategy application under stress, we investigated decision making in pure gain and loss domains with unequal expected values across alternatives. We conducted an experimental study with a 2 × 2 design (stress vs. no stress and gain domain vs. loss domain. The Trier Social Stress Test (TSST was utilized to induce acute stress. Controls performed the placebo-TSST. To validate the stress response we measured salivary cortisol and alpha amylase concentrations. We used a modified version of the Game of Dice Task (GDT to assess decision-making performance in a gain and a loss domain. Results showed that non-stressed participants of the gain domain decided less risky compared to those of the loss domain. This behavior is in accordance with previous studies and indicates the stability of the framing effect in even more complex tasks with changing expected values across alternatives. Stress did not alter risk taking behavior in the gain domain. Yet, in the loss domain stressed participants decided less risky compared to controls. Additionally, the data support earlier findings of longer reaction times in loss compared to gain domains due to higher cognitive effort for loss-framed decisions. It is discussed that stress may lead to reduced amygdala activation, which has been found to reduce riskier decisions in a loss domain. With respect to earlier results of riskier decisions in tasks that unite both gain and loss domains, it is discussed whether stress leads to a stronger evaluation of high gains and a neglect of losses.
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Many faces of rationality: Implications of the great rationality debate for clinical decision-making
Djulbegovic, B.; Elqayam, Shira
2017-01-01
open access article Given that more than 30% of healthcare costs are wasted on inappropriate care, suboptimal care is increasingly connected to the quality of medical decisions. It has been argued that personal decisions are the leading cause of death, and 80% of healthcare expenditures result from physicians' decisions. Therefore, improving healthcare necessitates improving medical decisions, ie, making decisions (more) rational. Drawing on writings fromThe Great Rationality Debate from t...
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Granular computing and decision-making interactive and iterative approaches
Chen, Shyi-Ming
2015-01-01
This volume is devoted to interactive and iterative processes of decision-making– I2 Fuzzy Decision Making, in brief. Decision-making is inherently interactive. Fuzzy sets help realize human-machine communication in an efficient way by facilitating a two-way interaction in a friendly and transparent manner. Human-centric interaction is of paramount relevance as a leading guiding design principle of decision support systems. The volume provides the reader with an updated and in-depth material on the conceptually appealing and practically sound methodology and practice of I2 Fuzzy Decision Making. The book engages a wealth of methods of fuzzy sets and Granular Computing, brings new concepts, architectures and practice of fuzzy decision-making providing the reader with various application studies. The book is aimed at a broad audience of researchers and practitioners in numerous disciplines in which decision-making processes play a pivotal role and serve as a vehicle to produce solutions to existing prob...
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Managing uncertainty in multiple-criteria decision making related to sustainability assessment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dorini, Gianluca Fabio; Kapelan, Zoran; Azapagic, Adisa
2011-01-01
In real life, decisions are usually made by comparing different options with respect to several, often conflicting criteria. This requires subjective judgements on the importance of different criteria by DMs and increases uncertainty in decision making. This article demonstrates how uncertainty can......: (1) no uncertainty, (2) uncertainty in data/models and (3) uncertainty in models and decision-makers’ preferences. The results shows how characterising and propagating uncertainty can help increase the effectiveness of multi-criteria decision making processes and lead to more informed decision....... be handled in multi-criteria decision situations using Compromise Programming, one of the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. Uncertainty is characterised using a probabilistic approach and propagated using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodological approach is illustrated...
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Do Decision 2003/54/EC and Decision no. 1229/2003/EC result in a European market for electricity?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wenting, F.
2004-01-01
In the summer of 2003 the European Parliament and the European Council issued a new Directive with respect to the internal market for electricity (Directive 2003/54/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 June 2003 concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity) and Guidelines for trans-European networks in the energy sector (Decision no. 1229/2003/EC). The question is whether these decisions will lead to a European and free market for electricity. It is concluded that this is not yet the case [nl
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Decision on the fifth nuclear unit in Finland - 17 years of decision-making
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Santaholma, Juhani [Perusvoima Oy (Finland)
1993-07-01
This paper shows the process of decision making on the fifth nuclear power plants in Finland that took 17 years. The opinion polls show that about 50% of the Finns are opposing the construction of the fifth NPP, 30% are in favour and 20% don't know or have no firm opinion. This situation has lasted for more than two years. The opinion of the Finnish industry and power utilities is, however, that if the decision makers have courage to make positive decision it will not lead to a revolution in Finland. The industry and the utilities have for many years done systematic work with the media, both the press and the electronic. The media debate has been rather low key reporting, but any incidents get a lot of space, especially events at the Russian and Baltic plants near the Finnish borders. There is a constant flow of reporting from Chernobyl and Chelyabinsk and other questionable Russian facilities in the Finnish media. The five Swedish reactors shut-down for repair have been widely reported. It also seems that false reports and articles in the leading international media, press and TV, find their way to Finnish media, as well. In other respects, the media climate in Finland is rather businesslike. It is evident that the sensational TV programmes have an effect on the Finnish nuclear opinion, both within the public and the political decision makers. The antinuclear lobbying in Finland is rather low key. There has been no big demonstrations as the ordinary people do not participate in them. The nuclear opponents have, however, a well working and sympathy arousing organization within the political parties and to a limited extend within the media. They also work in a very professional way in the environmental voluntary organizations. The politically, the industry is waiting for positive signals from the Government. The nuclear decision is considered as one of the most important in this respect. the situation is rather complex, but the industry and the utilities are
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Decision on the fifth nuclear unit in Finland - 17 years of decision-making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Santaholma, Juhani
1993-01-01
This paper shows the process of decision making on the fifth nuclear power plants in Finland that took 17 years. The opinion polls show that about 50% of the Finns are opposing the construction of the fifth NPP, 30% are in favour and 20% don't know or have no firm opinion. This situation has lasted for more than two years. The opinion of the Finnish industry and power utilities is, however, that if the decision makers have courage to make positive decision it will not lead to a revolution in Finland. The industry and the utilities have for many years done systematic work with the media, both the press and the electronic. The media debate has been rather low key reporting, but any incidents get a lot of space, especially events at the Russian and Baltic plants near the Finnish borders. There is a constant flow of reporting from Chernobyl and Chelyabinsk and other questionable Russian facilities in the Finnish media. The five Swedish reactors shut-down for repair have been widely reported. It also seems that false reports and articles in the leading international media, press and TV, find their way to Finnish media, as well. In other respects, the media climate in Finland is rather businesslike. It is evident that the sensational TV programmes have an effect on the Finnish nuclear opinion, both within the public and the political decision makers. The antinuclear lobbying in Finland is rather low key. There has been no big demonstrations as the ordinary people do not participate in them. The nuclear opponents have, however, a well working and sympathy arousing organization within the political parties and to a limited extend within the media. They also work in a very professional way in the environmental voluntary organizations. The politically, the industry is waiting for positive signals from the Government. The nuclear decision is considered as one of the most important in this respect. the situation is rather complex, but the industry and the utilities are
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Myopic Regret Avoidance: Feedback Avoidance and Learning in Repeated Decision Making
Reb, Jochen; Connolly, Terry
2009-01-01
Decision makers can become trapped by "myopic regret avoidance" in which rejecting feedback to avoid short-term "outcome regret" (regret associated with counterfactual outcome comparisons) leads to reduced learning and greater long-term regret over continuing poor decisions. In a series of laboratory experiments involving repeated choices among…
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Decision support for customers in electronic environments
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
František Dařena
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Due to the rapid spread of computer technologies into day-to-day lives many purchases or purchase-related decisions are made in the electronic environment of the Web. In order to handle information overload that is the result of the availability of many web-based stores, products and services, consumers use decision support aids that help with need recognition, information retrieval, filtering, comparisons and choice making. Decision support systems (DSS discipline spreads about 40 years back and was mostly focused on assisting managers. However, online environments and decision support in such environments bring new opportunities also to the customers. The focus on decision support for consumers is also not investigated to the large extent and not documented in the literature. Providing customers with well designed decision aids can lead to lower cognitive decision effort associated with the purchase decision which results in significant increase of consumer’s confidence, satisfaction, and cost savings. During decision making process the subjects can chose from several methods (optimizing, reasoning, analogizing, and creating, DSS types (data-, model-, communication-, document-driven, and knowledge-based and benefit from different modern technologies. The paper investigates popular customer decision making aids, such as search, filtering, comparison, e-negotiations and auctions, recommendation systems, social network systems, product design applications, communication support etc. which are frequently related to e-commerce applications. Results include the overview of such decision supporting tools, specific examples, classification according the way how the decisions are supported, and possibilities of applications of progressive technologies. The paper thus contributes to the process of development of the interface between companies and the customers where customer decisions take place.
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Smith, T R; Slater, P B
1981-01-01
"A new family of migration models belonging to the elimination by aspects family is examined, with the spatial interaction model shown to be a special case. The models have simple forms; they incorporate information flow processes and choice set constraints; they are free of problems raised by the Luce Choice Axiom; and are capable of generating intransitive flows. Preliminary calibrations using the Continuous Work History Sample [time] series data indicate that the model fits the migration data well, while providing estimates of interstate job message flows. The preliminary calculations also indicate that care is needed in assuming that destination [attraction] are independent of origins." excerpt
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Why do Participation in Decision Making Enhance Creativity in Work Groups?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Bo Thomas; Jønsson, Thomas
It seems to be an established fact in the organizational psychological literature that participation in decision making leads to creativity and innovation in work groups and organizations. A quite extensive amount of research has claimed that the link exists, although only a somewhat smaller amount...... of research has established that there is a link between the two constructs of participation in decision making and creativity. But although this link has been clearly documented theories with clearly stated causal explanations of why participation in decision making (pdm) would lead to creativity...... factors include such different models as enhanced intrinsic motivation (Amabile, 2001; Conti & Amabile, 1999), reduction in resistance to change (De Dreu & West, 2001), pooling of unshared knowledge (Latham, Winters, & Locke, 1994) and better utilization of individual differences in cognitive style...
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Why does Participation in Decision Making Enhance Creativity in Work Groups?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Bo T.; Jønsson, Thomas S.
It seems to be an established fact in the organizational psychological literature that participation in decision making leads to creativity and innovation in work groups and organizations. A quite extensive amount of research has claimed that the link exists, although only a somewhat smaller amount...... of research has established that there is a link between the two constructs of participation in decision making and creativity. But although this link has been clearly documented theories with clearly stated causal explanations of why participation in decision making (pdm) would lead to creativity...... factors include such different models as enhanced intrinsic motivation (Amabile, 2001; Conti & Amabile, 1999), reduction in resistance to change (De Dreu & West, 2001), pooling of unshared knowledge (Latham, Winters, & Locke, 1994) and better utilization of individual differences in cognitive style...
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The Impact of Weights on the Quality of Agricultural Producers' Multicriteria Decision Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Agata Sielska
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Decisions regarding agricultural production involve multiple goals. A multicriteria approach allows decision makers to consider more aspects of the decision scenario, although it also leads to other problems, such as difficulties with the selection of goals or criteria, as well as assigning them appropriate weights. It is argued that not only do goals vary depending on the decision-makers' socioeconomic features, but their relative importance changes as well. A simulation study has been conducted based on the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN database. We use the distance-to-the-negative-solution maximization model. Seven sets of criteria and different sets of weights are considered. The main purpose of the study is to determine the impact of weights on the quality of the model. Quality is assessed by comparing the optimal and observed values of the decision variables. The results lead to the conclusion that the differences between the quality of various models are small. (original abstract
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New Paradoxes of Risky Decision Making
Birnbaum, Michael H.
2008-01-01
During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…
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Cognitive Reflection, Decision Biases, and Response Times
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos Alos-Ferrer
2016-09-01
Full Text Available We present novel evidence on decision times and personality traits in standard questions from the decision-making literature where responses are relatively slow (medians around half a minute or above. To this end, we measured decision times in a number of incentivized, framed items (decisions from description including the Cognitive Reflection Test, two additional questions following the same logic, and a number of classic questions used to study decision biases in probability judgments (base-rate neglect, the conjunction fallacy, and the ratio bias. All questions create a conflict between an intuitive process and more deliberative thinking. For each item, we then created a non-conflict version by either making the intuitive impulse correct (resulting in an alignment question, shutting it down (creating a neutral question, or making it dominant (creating a heuristic question. For CRT questions, the differences in decision times are as predicted by dual-process theories, with alignment and heuristic variants leading to faster responses and neutral questions to slower responses than the original, conflict questions. For decision biases (where responses are slower, evidence is mixed. To explore the possible influence of personality factors on both choices and decision times, we used standard personality scales including the Rational-Experiential Inventory and the Big Five, and used the mas controls in regression analysis.
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The study of international and interstate transport of ozone in Yuma, Arizona
Li, Y.; Sonenberg, M.; Wood, J. L.; Pearson, C. R.; Colson, H.; Malloy, J. W.; Pace, M.; Mao, F.; Paul, J.; Busby, B. R.; Parkey, B.; Drago, L.; Franquist, T. S.
2017-12-01
In October 2015, EPA reduced the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone from 75 parts per billion (ppb) to 70 ppb. Meeting the new standard may be extremely challenging for some areas, including rural Yuma County in the State of Arizona. Yuma County faces unique air quality challenges, since it borders the Mexican states of Baja California and Sonora, and the State of California. The present study investigates the contribution of international and interstate transport of ozone and ozone precursors to episodes of elevated ozone concentrations in Yuma. The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) merged HYSPLIT modeling outputs with two years of hourly ground ozone monitor data to investigate the potential area contributions to ozone concentrations in Yuma County. This analysis found that elevated ozone concentrations in Yuma in 2014 and 2015 frequently coincided with back-trajectories over both California and Mexico, typically favoring Mexico during the spring. In May 2017, ADEQ installed a new ozone monitor in San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora, Mexico (Latitude: 32.4665, Longitude: -114.7688), which is 29 km south of ozone site in Yuma County. We will present the first simultaneous observations of ozone seasons in Sonora, Mexico, eastern California, and Yuma.
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Anger and Moral Reasoning in Decision Making
Matúš Grežo; Ľubor Pilárik
2013-01-01
The aim of the research was to examine the impact of anger on moral reasoning and decision making. We were interested in whether anger leads to more punitive attributions and to greater willingness to help when one perceives immoral behavior. Participants (N=61) of the experimental design were randomly divided into two groups. The results show that anger may lead to more automatic information processing and also to an intuition based judgment. Angry participants chose harsher punishments and ...
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Children’s Lead Exposure: A Multimedia Modeling Analysis to Guide Public Health Decision-Making
BACKGROUND: Drinking water and other sources for lead are the subject of public health concerns around the Flint, Michigan, drinking water and East Chicago, Indiana, lead in soil crises. In 2015, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s National Drinking Water Advisory C...
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Strategic planning decisions in the high tech industry
Daim, Tugrul; Beyhan, Berna; Basoglu, Nuri
2013-01-01
The scale and complexity of research and practices of open innovation mandate a correspondingly sophisticated form of decision making. Strategic Planning Decisions brings together a number of tools that ease the decision process in technology companies, providing both conceptual frameworks and practical applications. Innovative approaches are presented such as an ontology-based model where all the relevant aspects of a potential technology are interrelated to provide a comprehensive and logically connected data pool for decision makers. Divided into two sections, Strategic Planning Decisions describe both strategic approaches using the decision tools, and tactical approaches. Some of these tools are expanded while some others are embedded in a model that will lay the ground for practical application. These include: · bibliometric analysis, · ontology, · roadmapping, · lead user, six sigma, and · multi-actor & multi-object...
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How well-run boards make decisions.
Useem, Michael
2006-11-01
In the aftermath of seismic debacles like those that toppled Enron and WorldCom, corporate boards have been shaken up and made over. More directors are independent these days, for instance, and corporations now disclose directors' salaries and committee members' names. Research shows that most of the changes are having a positive effect on companies' performance. They are primarily structural, though, and don't go to the heart of a board's work: making the choices that shape a firm's future. Which decisions boards own and how those calls are made are largely hidden from the public. As a result, boards are often unable to learn from the best governance practices of their counterparts at other companies. This article pulls back the curtain and provides an inside look. Drawing on interviews with board members and executives at 31 companies, along with a close examination of three boardroom decisions, the author identifies several formal processes that can help companies improve their decision making: creating calendars that specify when the board and the standing committees will consider key items; drafting charters that define the decisions committees are responsible for; and developing decision protocols that divvy up responsibilities between directors and executives. The author also identifies a number of informal decision-making principles: Items that are strategically significant and touch on the firm's core values should go to the board. Large decisions should be divided into small pieces, so the board can devote sufficient attention to each one. Directors must remain vigilant to ensure that their decisions are effectively implemented. The CEO and either the nonexecutive chair or the lead director should engage in ongoing dialogue regarding which decisions to take to the full board and when. And directors should challenge assumptions before making yes-or-no decisions on management proposals.
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Decision Utility, Incentive Salience, and Cue-Triggered "Wanting"
Berridge, Kent C; Aldridge, J Wayne
2009-01-01
This chapter examines brain mechanisms of reward utility operating at particular decision moments in life-moments such as when one encounters an image, sound, scent, or other cue associated in the past with a particular reward or perhaps just when one vividly imagines that cue. Such a cue can often trigger a sudden motivational urge to pursue its reward and sometimes a decision to do so. Drawing on a utility taxonomy that distinguishes among subtypes of reward utility-predicted utility, decision utility, experienced utility, and remembered utility-it is shown how cue-triggered cravings, such as an addict's surrender to relapse, can hang on special transformations by brain mesolimbic systems of one utility subtype, namely, decision utility. The chapter focuses on a particular form of decision utility called incentive salience, a type of "wanting" for rewards that is amplified by brain mesolimbic systems. Sudden peaks of intensity of incentive salience, caused by neurobiological mechanisms, can elevate the decision utility of a particular reward at the moment its cue occurs. An understanding of what happens at such moments leads to a better understanding of the mechanisms at work in decision making in general.
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Outbreak Column 16: Cognitive errors in outbreak decision making.
Curran, Evonne T
2015-01-01
During outbreaks, decisions must be made without all the required information. People, including infection prevention and control teams (IPCTs), who have to make decisions during uncertainty use heuristics to fill the missing data gaps. Heuristics are mental model short cuts that by-and-large enable us to make good decisions quickly. However, these heuristics contain biases and effects that at times lead to cognitive (thinking) errors. These cognitive errors are not made to deliberately misrepresent any given situation; we are subject to heuristic biases when we are trying to perform optimally. The science of decision making is large; there are over 100 different biases recognised and described. Outbreak Column 16 discusses and relates these heuristics and biases to decision making during outbreak prevention, preparedness and management. Insights as to how we might recognise and avoid them are offered.
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Decision and Inhibitory Trees for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions
Azad, Mohammad
2018-06-06
Decision trees are one of the most commonly used tools in decision analysis, knowledge representation, machine learning, etc., for its simplicity and interpretability. We consider an extension of dynamic programming approach to process the whole set of decision trees for the given decision table which was previously only attainable by brute-force algorithms. We study decision tables with many-valued decisions (each row may contain multiple decisions) because they are more reasonable models of data in many cases. To address this problem in a broad sense, we consider not only decision trees but also inhibitory trees where terminal nodes are labeled with “̸= decision”. Inhibitory trees can sometimes describe more knowledge from datasets than decision trees. As for cost functions, we consider depth or average depth to minimize time complexity of trees, and the number of nodes or the number of the terminal, or nonterminal nodes to minimize the space complexity of trees. We investigate the multi-stage optimization of trees relative to some cost functions, and also the possibility to describe the whole set of strictly optimal trees. Furthermore, we study the bi-criteria optimization cost vs. cost and cost vs. uncertainty for decision trees, and cost vs. cost and cost vs. completeness for inhibitory trees. The most interesting application of the developed technique is the creation of multi-pruning and restricted multi-pruning approaches which are useful for knowledge representation and prediction. The experimental results show that decision trees constructed by these approaches can often outperform the decision trees constructed by the CART algorithm. Another application includes the comparison of 12 greedy heuristics for single- and bi-criteria optimization (cost vs. cost) of trees. We also study the three approaches (decision tables with many-valued decisions, decision tables with most common decisions, and decision tables with generalized decisions) to handle
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Socially responsible marketing decisions - scale development
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dina Lončarić
2009-07-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to develop a measurement scale for evaluating the implementation level of the concept of social responsibility in taking marketing decisions, in accordance with a paradigm of the quality-of-life marketing. A new scale of "socially responsible marketing decisions" has been formed and its content validity, reliability and dimensionality have been analyzed. The scale has been tested on a sample of the most successful Croatian firms. The research results lead us to conclude that the scale has satisfactory psychometric characteristics but that it is necessary to improve it by generating new items and by testing it on a greater number of samples.
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Evidence, values, guidelines and rational decision-making.
Barrett, Bruce
2012-02-01
Medical decision-making involves choices, which can lead to benefits or to harms. Most benefits and harms may or may not occur, and can be minor or major when they do. Medical research, especially randomized controlled trials, provides estimates of chance of occurrence and magnitude of event. Because there is no universally accepted method for weighing harms against benefits, and because the ethical principle of autonomy mandates informed choice by patient, medical decision-making is inherently an individualized process. It follows that the practice of aiming for universal implementation of standardized guidelines is irrational and unethical. Irrational because the possibility of benefits is implicitly valued more than the possibility of comparable harms, and unethical because guidelines remove decision making from the patient and give it instead to a physician, committee or health care system. This essay considers the cases of cancer screening and diabetes management, where guidelines often advocate universal implementation, without regard to informed choice and individual decision-making.
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Group Decisions in Biodiversity Conservation: Implications from Game Theory
Frank, David M.; Sarkar, Sahotra
2010-01-01
Background Decision analysis and game theory [1], [2] have proved useful tools in various biodiversity conservation planning and modeling contexts [3]?[5]. This paper shows how game theory may be used to inform group decisions in biodiversity conservation scenarios by modeling conflicts between stakeholders to identify Pareto?inefficient Nash equilibria. These are cases in which each agent pursuing individual self?interest leads to a worse outcome for all, relative to other feasible outcomes....
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Galiotto, Nicolas; Flourentzou, Flourentzos; Thalmann, Philippe
2013-01-01
project, which fulfills simultaneously and optimally all three pillars of sustainability. Multiple criteria decision making methodologies can help to improve the decision environment and handle the whole space of constraints. It therefore leads the stakeholders to find consensual solutions. In this paper...
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Consumer recycling: An ethical decision-making process
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Culiberg, Barbara; Bajde, Domen
2013-01-01
Although recycling is often experienced as a moral dilemma, studies that systematically approach this issue from an ethical perspective are scarce. Moreover, previous studies have explored recycling by mainly using single ethical constructs, such as moral norms, values or obligations, rarely...... approaching it as an ethical decision-making process. Our study takes a more holistic approach and integrates the recycling literature with business ethics theory in order to develop a conceptual model of ethical decision making involved in recycling. The model is based on Jones' issue-contingent model...... using structural equation modelling. The results of our study confirmed the relationships between three key facets of ethical decision making: moral recognition, moral judgment and moral intention. Higher levels of moral recognition were found to lead to more positive moral judgments, which in turn...
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Leading the Way: 25 Women Making a Difference
Diverse: Issues in Higher Education, 2012
2012-01-01
When it comes to leadership, women are now taking on long overdue roles. This article presents 25 dynamic women in the world of higher education and beyond. They lead some of the most demanding and consequential organizations and programs on the planet. No longer sitting on the decision-making sidelines, they have shattered the glass ceiling and,…
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Organising evidence for environmental management decisions: a '4S' hierarchy.
Dicks, Lynn V; Walsh, Jessica C; Sutherland, William J
2014-11-01
Making decisions informed by the best-available science is an objective for many organisations managing the environment or natural resources. Yet, available science is still not widely used in environmental policy and practice. We describe a '4S' hierarchy for organising relevant science to inform decisions. This hierarchy has already revolutionised clinical practice. It is beginning to emerge for environmental management, although all four levels need substantial development before environmental decision-makers can reliably and efficiently find the evidence they need. We expose common bypass routes that currently lead to poor or biased representation of scientific knowledge. We argue that the least developed level of the hierarchy is that closest to decision-makers, placing synthesised scientific knowledge into environmental decision support systems. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
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Social influence protects collective decision making from equality bias.
Hertz, Uri; Romand-Monnier, Margaux; Kyriakopoulou, Konstantina; Bahrami, Bahador
2016-02-01
A basic tenet of research on wisdom of the crowds-and key assumption of Condercet's (1785) Jury Theorem-is the independence of voters' opinions before votes are aggregated. However, we often look for others' opinions before casting our vote. Such social influence can push groups toward herding, leading to "madness of the crowds." To investigate the role of social influence in joint decision making, in Experiment 1 we had dyads of participants perform a visual oddball search task together. In the Independent (IND) condition participants initially made a private decision. If they disagreed, discussion and collective decision ensued. In the Influence (INF) condition no private decisions were made and collective decision was immediately negotiated. Dyads that did not accrue collective benefit under the IND condition improved with added social influence under the INF condition. In Experiment 2, covertly, we added noise to 1 of the dyad members' visual search display. The resulting increased heterogeneity in dyad members' performances impaired the dyadic performance under the IND condition (Bahrami et al., 2010). Importantly, dyadic performance improved with social influence under the INF condition, replicating results in Experiment 1. Further analyses revealed that under the IND condition, dyads exercised equality bias (Mahmoodi et al., 2015) by granting undue credit to the less-reliable partner. Under the INF condition, however, the more-reliable partner (correctly) dominated the joint decisions. Although social influence may impede collective success under ideal conditions, our results demonstrate how it can help the group members overcome factors such as equality bias, which could potentially lead to catastrophic failure. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
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THE DOMAINS FOR THE MULTI-CRITERIA DECISIONS ABOUT E-LEARNING SYSTEMS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Murat Pasa UYSAL
2012-04-01
Full Text Available Developments in computer and information technologies continue to give opportunities for designing advanced E-learning systems while entailing objective and technical evaluation methodologies. Design and development of E-learning systems require time-consuming and labor-intensive processes; therefore any decision about these systems and their analysis needs systematic and structured guidance to lead to better decisions. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA techniques are applicable in instructional technology-related research areas as well as in other academic disciplines. In this study, a conceptual domain model and a decision activity framework is proposed for E-learning systems. Instructional, technological, and administrative decision domains are included in this model. Finally, an illustrative example is given to show that AHP is an effective MCDA method for E-learning-related decisions.
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Sustainability Concept in Decision-Making: Carbon Tax Consideration for Joint Product Mix Decision
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wen-Hsien Tsai
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Carbon emissions are receiving greater scrutiny in many countries due to international forces to reduce anthropogenic global climate change. Carbon taxation is one of the most common carbon emission regulation policies, and companies must incorporate it into their production and pricing decisions. Activity-based costing (ABC and the theory of constraints (TOC have been applied to solve product mix problems; however, a challenging aspect of the product mix problem involves evaluating joint manufactured products, while reducing carbon emissions and environmental pollution to fulfill social responsibility. The aim of this paper is to apply ABC and TOC to analyze green product mix decision-making for joint products using a mathematical programming model and the joint production data of pharmaceutical industry companies for the processing of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs in drugs for medical use. This paper illustrates that the time-driven ABC model leads to optimal joint product mix decisions and performs sensitivity analysis to study how the optimal solution will change with the carbon tax. Our findings provide insight into ‘sustainability decisions’ and are beneficial in terms of environmental management in a competitive pharmaceutical industry.
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The Role of Low-Spatial Frequencies in Lexical Decision and Masked Priming
Boden, C.; Giaschi, D.
2009-01-01
Spatial frequency filtering was used to test the hypotheses that low-spatial frequency information in printed text can: (1) lead to a rapid lexical decision or (2) facilitate word recognition. Adult proficient readers made lexical decisions in unprimed and masked repetition priming experiments with unfiltered, low-pass, high-pass and notch…
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Unrealistic optimism and decision making
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Božović Bojana
2009-01-01
Full Text Available One of the leading descriptive theories of decision-making under risk, Tversky & Kahneman's Prospect theory, reveals that normative explanation of decisionmaking, based only on principle of maximizing outcomes expected utility, is unsustainable. It also underlines the effect of alternative factors on decision-making. Framing effect relates to an influence that verbal formulation of outcomes has on choosing between certain and risky outcomes; in negative frame people tend to be risk seeking, whereas in positive frame people express risk averse tendencies. Individual decisions are not based on objective probabilities of outcomes, but on subjective probabilities that depend on outcome desirability. Unrealistically pessimistic subjects assign lower probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes, while unrealistically optimistic subjects assign higher probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes. Experiment was conducted in order to test the presumption that there's a relation between unrealistic optimism and decision-making under risk. We expected optimists to be risk seeking, and pessimist to be risk averse. We also expected such cognitive tendencies, if they should become manifest, to be framing effect resistant. Unrealistic optimism scale was applied, followed by the questionnaire composed of tasks of decision-making under risk. Results within the whole sample, and results of afterwards extracted groups of pessimists and optimists both revealed dominant risk seeking tendency that is resistant to the influence of subjective probabilities as well as to the influence of frame in which the outcome is presented.
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Urban soils within the Omaha Lead Superfund Site have been contaminated with lead (Pb) from atmospheric deposition of particulate materials from lead smelting and recycling activities. In May of 2009 the Final Record of Decision stated that any residential soil exceeding the pre...
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Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang
2011-01-01
As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.
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Myxedema coma leading to respiratory depression in a dog
Atkinson, Kathryn; Aubert, Isabelle
2004-01-01
A 10-year-old, intact male, cocker spaniel was presented with hypothermia, without shivering, and progressive stupor leading to coma. Myxedema coma, potentially precipitated by diuretic therapy, was tentatively diagnosed and treatment initiated, but progressive respiratory depression led to the decision to euthanize. Postmortem findings supported the diagnosis of myxedema coma.
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Myxedema coma leading to respiratory depression in a dog.
Atkinson, Kathryn; Aubert, Isabelle
2004-04-01
A 10-year-old, intact male, cocker spaniel was presented with hypothermia, without shivering, and progressive stupor leading to coma. Myxedema coma, potentially precipitated by diuretic therapy, was tentatively diagnosed and treatment initiated, but progressive respiratory depression led to the decision to euthanize. Postmortem findings supported the diagnosis of myxedema coma.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sergey Baburin
2017-01-01
Full Text Available УДК 341.1+342.2Subject. The article substantiates the need for a special system of legislation for any project of international integration. Only such system, being integral, may, firstly, become the basis for the formation of an integrative law of this integration project, and secondly, have a supranational constitutionality, giving the ability to individual enforcement.Purpose. The purpose of this paper is the design of the constitutional-legal mechanisms of international integration in the scope of an integrative understanding of law and law enforcement.Methodology. The author uses methods of theoretical analysis, particularly the theory of integrative legal consciousness, as well as legal methods, including formal legal method and comparative law.Results, scope of application. The author points out that the formation of a single legal space in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU, as well as in Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Community before, is a development of constitutional law of supranational level, not of international law. The integration of law and integrality of the legislation are prerequisite for the success of the interstate Eurasian integration.Integration of law means the completeness of its internal structure, implies the indissoluble inner coherence of the law, its wholeness, unity. Coherent legal norms, embodied in legislation, can only create the phenomenon of law. The law should be understood as a metasystem, supersystem, it accumulates all socially significant systems and integrates the values of the law itself, its principles, values, other social regulators and regulated spheres of social relations. Attempts to apply the concept of "integration", but to abandon the notion of "integrality" are unreasonable, this terminological dichotomy is just a word game.If we talk about law, it is more appropriate to talk about it’s iintegrity, but if we talk about legislation, emerging to accelerate and deepen integration
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Youth in Community Decision-Making: A Study of Youth-Adult Partnerships
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shelley Murdock
2008-03-01
Full Text Available Involving youth in community and organizational decision-making is widely believed to lead to stronger communities. A promising strategy to foster decision-making is youth-adult partnerships in which youth and adults work collaboratively, sharing their strengths, collective knowledge, and decision-making power. A qualitative study of eight youth organizations showed that those organizations employing youth-adult partnership strategies were most effective in increasing youth's contributions to their communities. This article explores the elements of youth-adult partnership that were evident among successful organizations including: mutual respect, meaningful roles for youth, unique contributions of adults and youth, and shared decision-making and implications for youth development programs.
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Identification of the impact of organizational culture on the decision-making method
CANCO IRINA
2016-01-01
The dynamic development in the business organizations dictates the permanent necessity of decision-making. Because of its impact and the expected consequences, continuous decisionmaking is a critical moment for the business and an important duty for managers, in order to achieve the set goals. Decision-making is important as it leads to growth and development of the business. Thus the decision-making acknowledgement and its factors is an important duty for business perspective. The paper pres...
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Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers
Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H
2012-01-01
Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit
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Learning to maximize reward rate: a model based on semi-Markov decision processes.
Khodadadi, Arash; Fakhari, Pegah; Busemeyer, Jerome R
2014-01-01
WHEN ANIMALS HAVE TO MAKE A NUMBER OF DECISIONS DURING A LIMITED TIME INTERVAL, THEY FACE A FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM: how much time they should spend on each decision in order to achieve the maximum possible total outcome. Deliberating more on one decision usually leads to more outcome but less time will remain for other decisions. In the framework of sequential sampling models, the question is how animals learn to set their decision threshold such that the total expected outcome achieved during a limited time is maximized. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework for answering this question. To this end, we consider an experimental design in which each trial can come from one of the several possible "conditions." A condition specifies the difficulty of the trial, the reward, the penalty and so on. We show that to maximize the expected reward during a limited time, the subject should set a separate value of decision threshold for each condition. We propose a model of learning the optimal value of decision thresholds based on the theory of semi-Markov decision processes (SMDP). In our model, the experimental environment is modeled as an SMDP with each "condition" being a "state" and the value of decision thresholds being the "actions" taken in those states. The problem of finding the optimal decision thresholds then is cast as the stochastic optimal control problem of taking actions in each state in the corresponding SMDP such that the average reward rate is maximized. Our model utilizes a biologically plausible learning algorithm to solve this problem. The simulation results show that at the beginning of learning the model choses high values of decision threshold which lead to sub-optimal performance. With experience, however, the model learns to lower the value of decision thresholds till finally it finds the optimal values.
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Crash risk factors for interstate large trucks in North Carolina.
Teoh, Eric R; Carter, Daniel L; Smith, Sarah; McCartt, Anne T
2017-09-01
Provide an updated examination of risk factors for large truck involvements in crashes resulting in injury or death. A matched case-control study was conducted in North Carolina of large trucks operated by interstate carriers. Cases were defined as trucks involved in crashes resulting in fatal or non-fatal injury, and one control truck was matched on the basis of location, weekday, time of day, and truck type. The matched-pair odds ratio provided an estimate of the effect of various driver, vehicle, or carrier factors. Out-of-service (OOS) brake violations tripled the risk of crashing; any OOS vehicle defect increased crash risk by 362%. Higher historical crash rates (fatal, injury, or all crashes) of the carrier were associated with increased risk of crashing. Operating on a short-haul exemption increased crash risk by 383%. Antilock braking systems reduced crash risk by 65%. All of these results were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Other safety technologies also showed estimated benefits, although not statistically significant. With the exception of the finding that short-haul exemption is associated with increased crash risk, results largely bolster what is currently known about large truck crash risk and reinforce current enforcement practices. Results also suggest vehicle safety technologies can be important in lowering crash risk. This means that as safety technology continues to penetrate the fleet, whether from voluntary usage or government mandates, reductions in large truck crashes may be achieved. Practical application: Results imply that increased enforcement and use of crash avoidance technologies can improve the large truck crash problem. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Hoogland, Inge; Schildkamp, Kim; van der Kleij, Fabienne; Heitink, Maaike Christine; Kippers, Wilma Berdien; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Dijkstra, Anne M.
2016-01-01
Data-based decision making can lead to increased student learning. The desired effects of increased student learning can only be realized if data-based decision making is implemented successfully. Therefore, a systematic literature review was conducted to identify prerequisites of such successful
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VALDOR. Values in decisions on risk. Proceedings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andersson, Kjell
1999-12-01
This symposium is devoted to decision-making in controversial projects, specifically the need for transparency in risk assessment and decision processes. It should support the further development of transparent decision processes through contribution and cross-fertilisation between different areas of decision making. The sponsoring organisations of the symposium are all active in radioactive waste management, in which risk assessment is a key function. Traditionally, risk assessment has been the domain solely of experts in the different areas of science and technology. However, as radioactive waste programmes in the various countries proceed toward decisions on, for example, site selection, local communities and members of the public are becoming increasingly involved. We must appreciate that moral and ethical values held by individuals and societies in general are equally important as impersonal factual considerations. This is why the name VALDOR, meaning VALues in Decisions On Risk, has been chosen for the symposium. We may even discover that some of the underlying assumptions in seemingly neutral risk assessments are based on value judgements. It is crucial to have procedures that to the extent possible can identify the factual issues and the value issues in the decision-making process. The controversy surrounding the long-term disposal of radioactive waste provides opportunity for discussing these issues. Such discussions, however, should not be limited to radioactive waste, since the issues are relevant to decision making in modern society in a much broader context. Our hope is therefore that the symposium will draw participants also from other areas where decision-making depends on a multitude of disciplines and values. The ultimate goal will be to look at ways to develop more transparent decision processes in a democratic society. We hope the meeting will lead us in this direction. (48 conference contributions have been separately indexed)
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Update on the activities of the central interstate low-level radioactive waste compact commission
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peery, R.J.
1987-01-01
Since its formation in 1983, the Central Interstate Low-Level Radioactive Waste Compact Commission has moved at a deliberate pace to meet the responsibilities placed on the states by federal law. In addition to the normal activities associated with an agency empowered to regulate a specific industry, the Commission has conducted a number of studies designed to help it meet its responsibilities. The Phase I Site Exclusionary Study identified those areas in each of the member states that failed to meet criteria set out in 10 CFR 61. The key elements of a Management Study are: an evaluation of the region's waste stream, development of the procedures the Commission will use to select a developer for the region's waste facility, an assessment of disposal alternatives, and the development of a plan to review the results of the management plan. The Commission is conducting a Phase II Site Exclusionary Study in which a closer analysis of each area will allow the Commission to determine if there are areas in each state that are capable of being sited. The Commission is also considering the draft Request for Proposals to Develop a Low-Level Radioactive Waste Facility within the Region
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Perspective: Uses and misuses of thresholds in diagnostic decision making.
Warner, Jeremy L; Najarian, Robert M; Tierney, Lawrence M
2010-03-01
The concept of thresholds plays a vital role in decisions involving the initiation, continuation, and completion of diagnostic testing. Much research has focused on the development of explicit thresholds, in the form of practice guidelines and decision analyses. However, these tools are used infrequently; most medical decisions are made at the bedside, using implicit thresholds. Study of these thresholds can lead to a deeper understanding of clinical decision making. The authors examine some factors constituting individual clinicians' implicit thresholds. They propose a model for static thresholds using the concept of situational gravity to explain why some thresholds are high, and some low. Next, they consider the hypothetical effects of incorrect placement of thresholds (miscalibration) and changes to thresholds during diagnosis (manipulation). They demonstrate these concepts using common clinical scenarios. Through analysis of miscalibration of thresholds, the authors demonstrate some common maladaptive clinical behaviors, which are nevertheless internally consistent. They then explain how manipulation of thresholds gives rise to common cognitive heuristics including premature closure and anchoring. They also discuss the case where no threshold has been exceeded despite exhaustive collection of data, which commonly leads to application of the availability or representativeness heuristics. Awareness of implicit thresholds allows for a more effective understanding of the processes of medical decision making and, possibly, to the avoidance of detrimental heuristics and their associated medical errors. Research toward accurately defining these thresholds for individual physicians and toward determining their dynamic properties during the diagnostic process may yield valuable insights.
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Decision-making in nursing practice: An integrative literature review.
Nibbelink, Christine W; Brewer, Barbara B
2018-03-01
To identify and summarise factors and processes related to registered nurses' patient care decision-making in medical-surgical environments. A secondary goal of this literature review was to determine whether medical-surgical decision-making literature included factors that appeared to be similar to concepts and factors in naturalistic decision making (NDM). Decision-making in acute care nursing requires an evaluation of many complex factors. While decision-making research in acute care nursing is prevalent, errors in decision-making continue to lead to poor patient outcomes. Naturalistic decision making may provide a framework for further exploring decision-making in acute care nursing practice. A better understanding of the literature is needed to guide future research to more effectively support acute care nurse decision-making. PubMed and CINAHL databases were searched, and research meeting criteria was included. Data were identified from all included articles, and themes were developed based on these data. Key findings in this review include nursing experience and associated factors; organisation and unit culture influences on decision-making; education; understanding patient status; situation awareness; and autonomy. Acute care nurses employ a variety of decision-making factors and processes and informally identify experienced nurses to be important resources for decision-making. Incorporation of evidence into acute care nursing practice continues to be a struggle for acute care nurses. This review indicates that naturalistic decision making may be applicable to decision-making nursing research. Experienced nurses bring a broad range of previous patient encounters to their practice influencing their intuitive, unconscious processes which facilitates decision-making. Using naturalistic decision making as a conceptual framework to guide research may help with understanding how to better support less experienced nurses' decision-making for enhanced patient
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Altered Decision-Making under Risk in Obesity.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juan F Navas
Full Text Available The negative consequences of energy dense foods are well known, yet people increasingly make unhealthy food choices leading to obesity (i.e., risky decisions. The aims of this study were: [1] to compare performance in decision-making tasks under risk and under ambiguity between individuals with obesity, overweight and normal weight; [2] to examine the associations between body mass index (BMI and decision-making, and the degree to which these associations are modulated by reward sensitivity.Seventy-nine adults were recruited and classified in three groups according to their BMI: obesity, overweight and normal-weight. Groups were similar in terms of age, education and socio-economic status, and were screened for comorbid medical and mental health conditions. Decision-making under risk was measured via the Wheel of Fortune Task (WoFT and decision-making under ambiguity via the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT. Reward sensitivity was indicated by the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire (SPSRQ.Individuals with obesity made riskier choices in the WoFT, specifically in choices with an expected value close to zero and in the propensity to risk index. No differences were found in IGT performance or SPSRQ scores. BMI was associated with risk-taking (WoFT performance, independently of reward sensitivity.Obesity is linked to a propensity to make risky decisions in experimental conditions analogous to everyday food choices.
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Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barfod, Michael Bruhn
The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...
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Rational decision-making in medicine: implications for overuse and underuse
Djulbegovic, B.; Elqayam, Shira; Dale, W.
2017-01-01
open access article In spite of substantial spending and resource utilization, today's health care remains characterized by poor outcomes, largely due to overuse (over-testing/treatment) or underuse (under-testing/treatment) of services. To a significant extent, this is a consequence of low-quality decision-making that appears to violate various rationality criteria. Such sub-optimal decision-making is considered a leading cause of death and is responsible for more than 80% of health expen...
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Raju, Dheeraj; Schumacker, Randall
2015-01-01
The study used earliest available student data from a flagship university in the southeast United States to build data mining models like logistic regression with different variable selection methods, decision trees, and neural networks to explore important student characteristics associated with retention leading to graduation. The decision tree…
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Effects of Emotion on Prospection During Decision-Making
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Darrell A. Worthy
2014-06-01
Full Text Available In two experiments we examined the role of emotion, specifically worry, anxiety and mood, on prospection during decision-making. Worry is a particularly relevant emotion to study in the context of prospection because high levels of worry may make individuals more aversive toward the uncertainty associated with the prospect of obtaining future improvements in rewards or states. Thus, high levels of worry might lead to reduced prospection during decision-making and enhance preference for immediate over delayed rewards. In Experiment 1 participants performed a two-choice dynamic decision-making task where they were required to choose between one option (the decreasing option which provided larger immediate rewards but declines in future states, and another option (the increasing option which provided smaller immediate rewards but improvements in future states, making it the optimal choice. High levels of worry were associated with poorer performance in the task. Additionally, fits of a sophisticated reinforcement-learning model that incorporated both reward-based and state-based information suggested that individuals reporting high levels of worry gave greater weight to the immediate rewards they would receive on each trial than to the degree to which each action would lead to improvements in their future state. In Experiment 2 we found that high levels of worry were associated with greater delay discounting using a standard delay discounting task. Combined, the results suggest that high levels of worry are associated with reduced prospection during decision-making. We attribute these results to high worriers’ aversion toward the greater uncertainty associated with attempting to improve future rewards than to maximize immediate reward. These results have implications for researchers interested in the effects of emotion on cognition, and suggest that emotion strongly affects the focus on temporal outcomes during decision-making.
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Effects of emotion on prospection during decision-making.
Worthy, Darrell A; Byrne, Kaileigh A; Fields, Sherecce
2014-01-01
In two experiments we examined the role of emotion, specifically worry, anxiety, and mood, on prospection during decision-making. Worry is a particularly relevant emotion to study in the context of prospection because high levels of worry may make individuals more aversive toward the uncertainty associated with the prospect of obtaining future improvements in rewards or states. Thus, high levels of worry might lead to reduced prospection during decision-making and enhance preference for immediate over delayed rewards. In Experiment 1 participants performed a two-choice dynamic decision-making task where they were required to choose between one option (the decreasing option) which provided larger immediate rewards but declines in future states, and another option (the increasing option) which provided smaller immediate rewards but improvements in future states, making it the optimal choice. High levels of worry were associated with poorer performance in the task. Additionally, fits of a sophisticated reinforcement-learning model that incorporated both reward-based and state-based information suggested that individuals reporting high levels of worry gave greater weight to the immediate rewards they would receive on each trial than to the degree to which each action would lead to improvements in their future state. In Experiment 2 we found that high levels of worry were associated with greater delay discounting using a standard delay discounting task. Combined, the results suggest that high levels of worry are associated with reduced prospection during decision-making. We attribute these results to high worriers' aversion toward the greater uncertainty associated with attempting to improve future rewards than to maximize immediate reward. These results have implications for researchers interested in the effects of emotion on cognition, and suggest that emotion strongly affects the focus on temporal outcomes during decision-making.
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Kim, Ho-Joong; Park, Jae-Young; Kang, Kyoung-Tak; Chang, Bong-Soon; Lee, Choon-Ki; Yeom, Jin S
2015-02-01
In a preference-based shared decision-making system, several subjective and/or objective factors such as pain severity, degree of disability, and the radiological severity of canal stenosis may influence the final surgical decision for the treatment of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). However, our understanding of the shared decision-making process and the significance of each factor remain primitive. In the present study, we aimed to investigate which factors influence the surgical decision for the treatment of LSS when using a preference-based, shared decision-making process. We included 555 patients, aged 45-80 years, who used a preference-based shared decision-making process and were treated conservatively or surgically for chronic leg and/or back pain caused by LSS from April 2012 to December 2012. Univariate and multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association of surgical decision making with age, sex, body mass index, symptom duration, radiologic stenotic grade, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), visual analog scale (VAS) scores for back and leg pain, Short Form-36 (SF-36) subscales, and motor weakness. In univariate analysis, the following variables were associated with a higher odds of a surgical decision for LSS: male sex; the VAS score for leg pain; ODI; morphological stenotic grades B, C, and D; motor weakness; and the physical function, physical role, bodily pain, social function, and emotional role of the SF-36 subscales. Multivariate analysis revealed that male sex, ODI, morphological stenotic grades C and D, and motor weakness were significantly associated with a higher possibility of a surgical decision. Motor weakness, male sex, morphological stenotic grade, and the amount of disability are critical factors leading to a surgical decision for LSS when using a preference-based shared decision-making process.
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Decision and Inhibitory Rule Optimization for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions
Alsolami, Fawaz
2016-04-25
‘If-then’ rule sets are one of the most expressive and human-readable knowledge representations. This thesis deals with optimization and analysis of decision and inhibitory rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. The most important areas of applications are knowledge extraction and representation. The benefit of considering inhibitory rules is connected with the fact that in some situations they can describe more knowledge than the decision ones. Decision tables with many-valued decisions arise in combinatorial optimization, computational geometry, fault diagnosis, and especially under the processing of data sets. In this thesis, various examples of real-life problems are considered which help to understand the motivation of the investigation. We extend relatively simple results obtained earlier for decision rules over decision tables with many-valued decisions to the case of inhibitory rules. The behavior of Shannon functions (which characterize complexity of rule systems) is studied for finite and infinite information systems, for global and local approaches, and for decision and inhibitory rules. The extensions of dynamic programming for the study of decision rules over decision tables with single-valued decisions are generalized to the case of decision tables with many-valued decisions. These results are also extended to the case of inhibitory rules. As a result, we have algorithms (i) for multi-stage optimization of rules relative to such criteria as length or coverage, (ii) for counting the number of optimal rules, (iii) for construction of Pareto optimal points for bi-criteria optimization problems, (iv) for construction of graphs describing relationships between two cost functions, and (v) for construction of graphs describing relationships between cost and accuracy of rules. The applications of created tools include comparison (based on information about Pareto optimal points) of greedy heuristics for bi-criteria optimization of rules
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A cloud computing based 12-lead ECG telemedicine service.
Hsieh, Jui-Chien; Hsu, Meng-Wei
2012-07-28
Due to the great variability of 12-lead ECG instruments and medical specialists' interpretation skills, it remains a challenge to deliver rapid and accurate 12-lead ECG reports with senior cardiologists' decision making support in emergency telecardiology. We create a new cloud and pervasive computing based 12-lead Electrocardiography (ECG) service to realize ubiquitous 12-lead ECG tele-diagnosis. This developed service enables ECG to be transmitted and interpreted via mobile phones. That is, tele-consultation can take place while the patient is on the ambulance, between the onsite clinicians and the off-site senior cardiologists, or among hospitals. Most importantly, this developed service is convenient, efficient, and inexpensive. This cloud computing based ECG tele-consultation service expands the traditional 12-lead ECG applications onto the collaboration of clinicians at different locations or among hospitals. In short, this service can greatly improve medical service quality and efficiency, especially for patients in rural areas. This service has been evaluated and proved to be useful by cardiologists in Taiwan.
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Smith, Erik A.; Lorenz, David L.; Kessler, Erich W.; Berg, Andrew M.; Sanocki, Chris A.
2017-12-13
The Interstate 94 Corridor has been identified as 1 of 16 Minnesota groundwater areas of concern because of its limited available groundwater resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, completed six seasonal and annual groundwater balances for parts of the Interstate 94 Corridor surficial aquifer to better understand its long-term (next several decades) sustainability. A high-precision Mississippi River groundwater discharge measurement of 5.23 cubic feet per second per mile was completed at low-flow conditions to better inform these groundwater balances. The recharge calculation methods RISE program and Soil-Water-Balance model were used to inform the groundwater balances. For the RISE-derived recharge estimates, the range was from 3.30 to 11.91 inches per year; for the SWB-derived recharge estimates, the range was from 5.23 to 17.06 inches per year.Calculated groundwater discharges ranged from 1.45 to 5.06 cubic feet per second per mile, a ratio of 27.7 to 96.4 percent of the measured groundwater discharge. Ratios of groundwater pumping to total recharge ranged from 8.6 to 97.2 percent, with the longer-term groundwater balances ranging from 12.9 to 19 percent. Overall, this study focused on the surficial aquifer system and its interactions with the Mississippi River. During the study period (October 1, 2012, through November 30, 2014), six synoptic measurements, along with continuous groundwater hydrographs, rainfall records, and a compilation of the pertinent irrigation data, establishes the framework for future groundwater modeling efforts.
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A hybrid fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model for green ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A hybrid fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model for green supplier selection. ... Hence,supplier selection is significant factor in supply chain success. ... reduce purchasing cost, lead time and improve quality and environmental issue.
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Decision Making Model for Business Process Outsourcing of Enterprise Content Management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhuojun Yi
2013-03-01
Full Text Available Business process outsourcing (BPO in enterprise content management (ECM is a growing though immature market. BPO in ECM focuses on pursuing market transactions in the process of managing all types of content being used in organizations. However, inadequate sourcing decisions lead to organizational sensitive content exposure, high transaction cost, poor outsourcer performance, low flexibility. ECM BPO in general is rarely discussed in the literature and no discussion was found on decision making strategies in ECM BPO. In this paper, we present a decision making model for ECM BPO that will fill the literature gap and guide industry practitioners with ECM sourcing decision making strategies. Our proposed decision making model includes two parts. Part one is an ECM functional framework that shows what functionality component or functionality combinations can be outsourced. Part two is a decision making model that provides guidance for decision making in ECM BPO. We apply the model in two case studies, and the results indicate that the model can guide the sourcing decision making process for organizations, and determine the factors when considering sourcing alternatives in ECM.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1989-01-01
S. 1563: A Bill granting the consent of the Congress to amendments to the Southeast Interstate Low-Level Radioactive Waste Management Compact. The disposal facility located in Barnwell County, South Carolina shall be the considered the first host State disposal facility
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Striatal BOLD response reflects the impact of herd information on financial decisions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christopher J Burke
2010-06-01
Full Text Available Like other species, humans are sensitive to the decisions and actions of conspecifics, which can lead to herd behavior and undesirable outcomes such as stock market bubbles and bank runs. However, how the brain processes this socially derived influence is only poorly understood. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, we scanned participants as they made decisions on whether to buy stocks after observing others’ buying decisions. We demonstrate that activity in the ventral striatum, an area heavily implicated in reward processing, tracked the degree of influence on participants’ decisions arising from the observation of other peoples’ decisions. The signal did not track non-human, non-social control decisions. These findings lend weight to the notion that the ventral striatum is involved in the processing of complex social aspects of decision-making and identify a possible neural basis for herd behavior.
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Decision-making strategies: ignored to the detriment of healthcare training and delivery?
Desmond, Chris; Brubaker, Kathryn A; Ellner, Andrew L
2013-01-01
Context : People do not always make health-related decisions which reflect their best interest - best interest being defined as the decision they would make if they carefully considered the options and fully understood the information available. A substantial literature has developed in behavioral economics and social psychology that seeks to elucidate the patterns in individual decision-making. While this is particularly relevant to healthcare, the insights from these fields have only been applied in a limited way. To address the health challenges of the twenty-first century, healthcare providers and healthcare systems designers need to more fully understand how individuals are making decisions. Methods : We provide an overview of the theories of behavioral economics and social psychology that relate to how individuals make health-related decisions. The concentration on health-related decisions leads to a focus on three topics: (1) mental shortcuts and motivated reasoning; (2) implications of time; and (3) implications of affect. The first topic is relevant because health-related decisions are often made in a hurry without a full appreciation of the implications and the deliberation they warrant. The second topic is included because the link between a decision and its health-related outcomes can involve a significant time lag. The final topic is included because health and affect are so often linked. Findings : The literature reviewed has implications for healthcare training and delivery. Selection for medical training must consider the skills necessary to understand and adapt to how patients make decisions. Training on the insights garnered from behavioral economics and social psychology would better prepare healthcare providers to effectively support their clients to lead healthy lives. Healthcare delivery should be structured to respond to the way in which decisions are made. Conclusions : These patterns in decision-making call into question basic assumptions
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The Evidential Basis of Decision Making in Plant Disease Management.
Hughes, Gareth
2017-08-04
The evidential basis for disease management decision making is provided by data relating to risk factors. The decision process involves an assessment of the evidence leading to taking (or refraining from) action on the basis of a prediction. The primary objective of the decision process is to identify-at the time the decision is made-the control action that provides the best predicted end-of-season outcome, calculated in terms of revenue or another appropriate metric. Data relating to disease risk factors may take a variety of forms (e.g., continuous, discrete, categorical) on measurement scales in a variety of units. Log 10 -likelihood ratios provide a principled basis for the accumulation of evidence based on such data and allow predictions to be made via Bayesian updating of prior probabilities.
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Crowther, Helen J; Kerridge, Ian
2015-10-01
Therapies utilized in patients with clinically significant haemoglobin disorders appear to vary between clinicians and units. This study aimed to investigate the processes of evidence implementation and medical decision making in the care of such patients in NSW, Australia. Using semi-structured interviews, 11 haematologists discussed their medical decision-making processes with particular attention paid to the use of published evidence. Transcripts were thematically analysed by a single investigator on a line-by-line basis. Decision making surrounding the care of patients with significant haemoglobin disorders varied and was deeply contextual. Three main determinants of clinical decision making were identified - factors relating to the patient and to their illness, factors specific to the clinician and the institution in which they were practising and factors related to the notion of evidence and to utility and role of evidence-based medicine in clinical practice. Clinicians pay considerable attention to medical decision making and evidence incorporation and attempt to tailor these to particular patient contexts. However, the patient context is often inferred and when discordant with the clinician's own contexture can lead to discomfort with decision recommendations. Clinicians strive to improve comfort through the use of experience and trustworthy evidence. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Info-gap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty
Ben-Haim, Yakov
2006-01-01
Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term ""decision analyst"" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts,
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Patient Preferences and Surrogate Decision Making in Neuroscience Intensive Care Units
Cai, Xuemei; Robinson, Jennifer; Muehlschlegel, Susanne; White, Douglas B.; Holloway, Robert G.; Sheth, Kevin N.; Fraenkel, Liana; Hwang, David Y.
2016-01-01
In the neuroscience intensive care unit (NICU), most patients lack the capacity to make their own preferences known. This fact leads to situations where surrogate decision makers must fill the role of the patient in terms of making preference-based treatment decisions, oftentimes in challenging situations where prognosis is uncertain. The neurointensivist has a large responsibility and role to play in this shared decision making process. This review covers how NICU patient preferences are determined through existing advance care documentation or surrogate decision makers and how the optimum roles of the physician and surrogate decision maker are addressed. We outline the process of reaching a shared decision between family and care team and describe a practice for conducting optimum family meetings based on studies of ICU families in crisis. We review challenges in the decision making process between surrogate decision makers and medical teams in neurocritical care settings, as well as methods to ameliorate conflicts. Ultimately, the goal of shared decision making is to increase knowledge amongst surrogates and care providers, decrease decisional conflict, promote realistic expectations and preference-centered treatment strategies, and lift the emotional burden on families of neurocritical care patients. PMID:25990137
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Sexuality Education: Building an Evidence- and Rights-Based Approach to Healthy Decision-Making
Bridges, Emily; Hauser, Debra
2014-01-01
As they grow up, young people face important decisions about relationships, sexuality, and sexual behavior. The decisions they make can impact their health and well-being for the rest of their lives. Young people have the right to lead healthy lives, and society has the responsibility to prepare youth by providing them with comprehensive sexual…
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A brief history of decision making.
Buchanan, Leigh; O'Connell, Andrew
2006-01-01
Sometime around the middle of the past century, telephone executive Chester Barnard imported the term decision making from public administration into the business world. There it began to replace narrower terms, like "resource allocation" and "policy making," shifting the way managers thought about their role from continuous, Hamlet-like deliberation toward a crisp series of conclusions reached and actions taken. Yet, decision making is, of course, a broad and ancient human pursuit, flowing back to a time when people sought guidance from the stars. From those earliest days, we have strived to invent better tools for the purpose, from the Hindu-Arabic systems for numbering and algebra, to Aristotle's systematic empiricism, to friar Occam's advances in logic, to Francis Bacon's inductive reasoning, to Descartes's application of the scientific method. A growing sophistication with managing risk, along with a nuanced understanding of human behavior and advances in technology that support and mimic cognitive processes, has improved decision making in many situations. Even so, the history of decision-making strategies--captured in this time line and examined in the four accompanying essays on risk, group dynamics, technology, and instinct--has not marched steadily toward perfect rationalism. Twentieth-century theorists showed that the costs of acquiring information lead executives to make do with only good-enough decisions. Worse, people decide against their own economic interests even when they know better. And in the absence of emotion, it's impossible to make any decisions at all. Erroneous framing, bounded awareness, excessive optimism: The debunking of Descartes's rational man threatens to swamp our confidence in our choices. Is it really surprising, then, that even as technology dramatically increases our access to information, Malcolm Gladwell extols the virtues of gut decisions made, literally, in the blink of an eye?
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Azad, Mohammad
2017-06-16
We study problems of optimization of decision and inhibitory trees for decision tables with many-valued decisions. As cost functions, we consider depth, average depth, number of nodes, and number of terminal/nonterminal nodes in trees. Decision tables with many-valued decisions (multi-label decision tables) are often more accurate models for real-life data sets than usual decision tables with single-valued decisions. Inhibitory trees can sometimes capture more information from decision tables than decision trees. In this paper, we create dynamic programming algorithms for multi-stage optimization of trees relative to a sequence of cost functions. We apply these algorithms to prove the existence of totally optimal (simultaneously optimal relative to a number of cost functions) decision and inhibitory trees for some modified decision tables from the UCI Machine Learning Repository.
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Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail
2017-01-01
We study problems of optimization of decision and inhibitory trees for decision tables with many-valued decisions. As cost functions, we consider depth, average depth, number of nodes, and number of terminal/nonterminal nodes in trees. Decision tables with many-valued decisions (multi-label decision tables) are often more accurate models for real-life data sets than usual decision tables with single-valued decisions. Inhibitory trees can sometimes capture more information from decision tables than decision trees. In this paper, we create dynamic programming algorithms for multi-stage optimization of trees relative to a sequence of cost functions. We apply these algorithms to prove the existence of totally optimal (simultaneously optimal relative to a number of cost functions) decision and inhibitory trees for some modified decision tables from the UCI Machine Learning Repository.
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Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions
Azad, Mohammad
2014-09-13
The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.
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Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions
Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail
2014-01-01
The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.
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The decision-making process during accidents or incidents in the operational nuclear area
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martins, Maria da Penha Sanches; Vanni, Silvia Regina Vanni; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de
2009-01-01
This study reflects on one of the human behavior mediating factors that face nuclear facility operators during their decision-making process. It includes some mental processes used to determine the best course of action, based on intuitive and creative decisions, within a specific set of rational conditions which depend much more on perception about threats than on theoretical knowledge. A fast and efficient decision, in an unstable and ongoing changing scenario/environment, is extremely complex. The decision-making process goes beyond the purely rational level and many times is influenced by intuition. The importance of the decision-making process leads the study to also review human factors. The methodology used in this paper is based on cognitive aspects which are focused essentially on studies such as: decision process models, decision types and human rationality limits (time) versus individual decisions. Lastly, it makes assessments on how reason, emotion and being under stress relate to the decision-making process (author)
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The decision-making process during accidents or incidents in the operational nuclear area
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Martins, Maria da Penha Sanches; Vanni, Silvia Regina Vanni [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), SP (Brazil); Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], email: penhamartins@yahoo.com.br, e-mail: sjcvanni@yahoo.com.br; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], e-mail: delvonei@ipen.br
2009-07-01
This study reflects on one of the human behavior mediating factors that face nuclear facility operators during their decision-making process. It includes some mental processes used to determine the best course of action, based on intuitive and creative decisions, within a specific set of rational conditions which depend much more on perception about threats than on theoretical knowledge. A fast and efficient decision, in an unstable and ongoing changing scenario/environment, is extremely complex. The decision-making process goes beyond the purely rational level and many times is influenced by intuition. The importance of the decision-making process leads the study to also review human factors. The methodology used in this paper is based on cognitive aspects which are focused essentially on studies such as: decision process models, decision types and human rationality limits (time) versus individual decisions. Lastly, it makes assessments on how reason, emotion and being under stress relate to the decision-making process (author)
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Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
O'Neill, B.C.; Ermoliev, Y.; Ermolieva, T.
2005-01-01
We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- (Value at Risk) and CVaR-type risk (Conditional Value at Risk) measures. Combined with explicit introduction of 'safety' constraints, it creates a 'hit-or-miss' type decision making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lemos, Francisco Luiz de; Deshpande, Ashok; Guimaraes, Lamartine
2002-01-01
Low and intermediate waste disposal facilities safety assessment is comprised of several steps from site selection , construction and operation to post-closure performance assessment. This is a multidisciplinary and complex task , and can not be analyzed by one expert only. This high complexity can lead to ambiguity and vagueness in information and consequently in the decision making process. In order to make the decision process clear and objective, there is the need to provide the decision makers with a clear and comprehensive picture of the whole process and, at the same time, simple and easily understandable by the public. This paper suggests the development of an inference system based on fuzzy decision making methodology. Fuzzy logic tools are specially suited to deal with ambiguous data by using language expressions. This process would be capable of integrating knowledge from various fields of environmental sciences. It has an advantage of keeping record of reasoning for each intermediate decision that lead to the final results which makes it more dependable and defensible as well. (author)
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21 CFR 1240.65 - Psittacine birds.
2010-04-01
... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Psittacine birds. 1240.65 Section 1240.65 Food and... DISEASES Specific Administrative Decisions Regarding Interstate Shipments § 1240.65 Psittacine birds. (a) The term psittacine birds shall include all birds commonly known as parrots, Amazons, Mexican double...
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Decision Support System In Heart Disease Diagnosis By Case Based Recommendation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Prinsha Prakash
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Heart disease is the main leading killer as well as a major cause of disability. Its timely detection and correct diagnosis plays a vital role in human life. In a limited period of time recalling the data from Doctors unaided memory may lead to wrong judgments. While taking decisions Doctor analyses the physical condition and test results of the patient. In the same way our system compares the data provided to Doctor and getting a result through CBR technique. Results from the system will help the Doctor to conclude the decision and reduce human errors may occur. Our system is able to analyze scanned results of heart and being a helping hand to the doctor in all manners.
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Role of conflict in decision making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bellman, H.S.
1986-01-01
In the siting process for a low-level waste disposal facility, there is a place for conflict, negotiation, arbitration, and public involvement. Contrary to popular belief, conflict is good. It signals pluralism and demonstrates a distribution of power. Conflict should not be eliminated because it is a dynamic method of decision-making. Conflict causes negotiation, which leads to compromise. Conflict is the product of the legitimacy of dissent
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Decision-directed materials-accounting procedures: an overview
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shipley, J.P.
1981-01-01
With materials balances taken at intervals, methods for treating materials balance data and their use by safeguards decision-making are relatively straightforward. The emphasis on accounting in which balances may be drawn on a daily or weekly basis, raises anew questions in these two areas: (1) what is the most effective means of extracting the maximum amount of information; and (2) how should safeguards decision-makers use the results, and what impact does the decision process have on the analysis techniques. These questions lead to considering combinations of materials balances, which exposes a whole new set of concerns. For example, we must select the most appropriate combinations, which implies some consideration of possible diversion scenarios, such as abrupt or protracted. Control of the overall false-alarm rate is an important requisite of the composite procedure. Significant work has been done on loss estimators, but their role in the materials accounting decision process has only begun to be examined. Current criteria may require periodic statements with respect to materials loss; the analysis procedures must be structured to provide such information. This paper presents an overview of the current technology. Questions still to be answered are pointed out
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Decision Fusion System for Bolted Joint Monitoring
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dong Liang
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Bolted joint is widely used in mechanical and architectural structures, such as machine tools, industrial robots, transport machines, power plants, aviation stiffened plate, bridges, and steel towers. The bolt loosening induced by flight load and environment factor can cause joint failure leading to a disastrous accident. Hence, structural health monitoring is critical for the bolted joint detection. In order to realize a real-time and convenient monitoring and satisfy the requirement of advanced maintenance of the structure, this paper proposes an intelligent bolted joint failure monitoring approach using a developed decision fusion system integrated with Lamb wave propagation based actuator-sensor monitoring method. Firstly, the basic knowledge of decision fusion and classifier selection techniques is briefly introduced. Then, a developed decision fusion system is presented. Finally, three fusion algorithms, which consist of majority voting, Bayesian belief, and multiagent method, are adopted for comparison in a real-world monitoring experiment for the large aviation aluminum plate. Based on the results shown in the experiment, a big potential in real-time application is presented that the method can accurately and rapidly identify the bolt loosening by analyzing the acquired strain signal using proposed decision fusion system.
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Pilot/Controller Coordinated Decision Making in the Next Generation Air Transportation System
Bearman, Chris; Miller, Ronald c.; Orasanu, Judith M.
2011-01-01
Introduction: NextGen technologies promise to provide considerable benefits in terms of enhancing operations and improving safety. However, there needs to be a thorough human factors evaluation of the way these systems will change the way in which pilot and controllers share information. The likely impact of these new technologies on pilot/controller coordinated decision making is considered in this paper using the "operational, informational and evaluative disconnect" framework. Method: Five participant focus groups were held. Participants were four experts in human factors, between x and x research students and a technical expert. The participant focus group evaluated five key NextGen technologies to identify issues that made different disconnects more or less likely. Results: Issues that were identified were: Decision Making will not necessarily improve because pilots and controllers possess the same information; Having a common information source does not mean pilots and controllers are looking at the same information; High levels of automation may lead to disconnects between the technology and pilots/controllers; Common information sources may become the definitive source for information; Overconfidence in the automation may lead to situations where appropriate breakdowns are not initiated. Discussion: The issues that were identified lead to recommendations that need to be considered in the development of NextGen technologies. The current state of development of these technologies provides a good opportunity to utilize recommendations at an early stage so that NextGen technologies do not lead to difficulties in resolving breakdowns in coordinated decision making.
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Data-to-Decisions S&T Priority Initiative
2011-11-08
Decisions S&T Priority Initiative Dr. Carey Schwartz PSC Lead Office of Naval Research NDIA Disruptive Technologies Conference November 8-9, 2011...DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Presented at the NDIA Disruptive ... Technologies Conference, November 8,-9, 2011,Washington, DC 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT
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Kaskaya, Alper; Calp, Sükran; Kuru, Oguzhan
2017-01-01
Decision making is one of the most important life skills. While making correct, timely, accurate and appropriate decisions lead to positive changes in one's life, making incorrect decisions may have a negative impact. It is an important issue to examine what the 4th grade students in primary school have about the decision-making ability to be…
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History of the US weapons-usable plutonium disposition program leading to DOE's record of decision
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Spellman, D.J.; Thomas, J.F.; Bugos, R.G.
1997-04-01
This report highlights important events and studies concerning surplus weapons-usable plutonium disposition in the United States. Included are major events that led to the creation of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fissile Materials Disposition in 1994 and to that DOE office issuing the January 1997 Record of Decision for the Storage and Disposition of Weapons-Useable Fissile Materials Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement. Emphasis has been given to reactor-based plutonium disposition alternatives
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Anticipatory stress influences decision making under explicit risk conditions.
Starcke, Katrin; Wolf, Oliver T; Markowitsch, Hans J; Brand, Matthias
2008-12-01
Recent research has suggested that stress may affect memory, executive functioning, and decision making on the basis of emotional feedback processing. The current study examined whether anticipatory stress affects decision making measured with the Game of Dice Task (GDT), a decision-making task with explicit and stable rules that taps both executive functioning and feedback learning. The authors induced stress in 20 participants by having them anticipate giving a public speech and also examined 20 comparison subjects. The authors assessed the level of stress with questionnaires and endocrine markers (salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase), both revealing that speech anticipation led to increased stress. Results of the GDT showed that participants under stress scored significantly lower than the comparison group and that GDT performance was negatively correlated with the increase of cortisol. Our results indicate that stress can lead to disadvantageous decision making even when explicit and stable information about outcome contingencies is provided.
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Data Mining and Data Fusion for Enhanced Decision Support
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Khan, Shiraj [ORNL; Ganguly, Auroop R [ORNL; Gupta, Amar [University of Arizona
2008-01-01
The process of Data Mining converts information to knowledge by utilizing tools from the disciplines of computational statistics, database technologies, machine learning, signal processing, nonlinear dynamics, process modeling, simulation, and allied disciplines. Data Mining allows business problems to be analyzed from diverse perspectives, including dimensionality reduction, correlation and co-occurrence, clustering and classification, regression and forecasting, anomaly detection, and change analysis. The predictive insights generated from Data Mining can be further utilized through real-time analysis and decision sciences, as well as through human-driven analysis based on management by exceptions or by objectives, to generate actionable knowledge. The tools that enable the transformation of raw data to actionable predictive insights are collectively referred as Decision Support tools. This chapter presents a new formalization of the decision process, leading to a new Decision Superiority model, partially motivated by the Joint Directors of Laboratories (JDL) Data Fusion Model. In addition, it examines the growing importance of Data Fusion concepts.
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Xu, Hui; Tracey, Terence J G
2017-10-01
The current study investigated the dynamic interplay of career decision ambiguity tolerance and career indecision over 3 assessment times in a sample of college students (n = 583). While the previous research has repeatedly shown an association of career decision ambiguity tolerance with career indecision, the direction of this association has not been adequately assessed with longitudinal investigation. It was hypothesized in this study that there is a reciprocal pattern of career decision ambiguity tolerance leading to subsequent career indecision and career indecision leading to subsequent career decision ambiguity tolerance. Using a cross-lagged panel design, this study found support for the reciprocal pattern that aversion to ambiguity led to increased negative affect and choice anxiety in career decision making, while negative affect and choice anxiety led to increased aversion to ambiguity. Additionally, this study revealed that aversion led to decreased readiness for career decision making and readiness for career decision making led to increased interests in new information. The key findings were discussed with respect to the theoretical and clinical implications for career counseling along with limitations and suggestions for future research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
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FlooDSuM - a decision support methodology for assisting local authorities in flood situations
Schwanbeck, Jan; Weingartner, Rolf
2014-05-01
Decision making in flood situations is a difficult task, especially in small to medium-sized mountain catchments (30 - 500 km2) which are usually characterized by complex topography, high drainage density and quick runoff response to rainfall events. Operating hydrological models driven by numerical weather prediction systems, which have a lead-time of several hours up to few even days, would be beneficial in this case as time for prevention could be gained. However, the spatial and quantitative accuracy of such meteorological forecasts usually decrease with increasing lead-time. In addition, the sensitivity of rainfall-runoff models to inaccuracies in estimations of areal rainfall increases with decreasing catchment size. Accordingly, decisions on flood alerts should ideally be based on areal rainfall from high resolution and short-term numerical weather prediction, nowcasts or even real-time measurements, which is transformed into runoff by a hydrological model. In order to benefit from the best possible rainfall data while retaining enough time for alerting and for prevention, the hydrological model should be fast and easily applicable by decision makers within local authorities themselves. The proposed decision support methodology FlooDSuM (Flood Decision Support Methodology) aims to meet those requirements. Applying FlooDSuM, a few successive binary decisions of increasing complexity have to be processed following a flow-chart-like structure. Prepared data and straightforwardly applicable tools are provided for each of these decisions. Maps showing the current flood disposition are used for the first step. While danger of flooding cannot be excluded more and more complex and time consuming methods will be applied. For the final decision, a set of scatter-plots relating areal precipitation to peak flow is provided. These plots take also further decisive parameters into account such as storm duration, distribution of rainfall intensity in time as well as the
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2010-11-10
..., operator intoxication or insanity, and a variety of other eventualities, must be a matter for the... continue by stating that EPA's disapproval would lead to interstate inequities and remove permitting... disapproval will lead to removal of permitting incentives, we disagree. The submitted transition permitting...
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Hu, Wen
2017-06-01
In November 2010 and October 2013, Utah increased speed limits on sections of rural interstates from 75 to 80mph. Effects on vehicle speeds and speed variance were examined. Speeds were measured in May 2010 and May 2014 within the new 80mph zones, and at a nearby spillover site and at more distant control sites where speed limits remained 75mph. Log-linear regression models estimated percentage changes in speed variance and mean speeds for passenger vehicles and large trucks associated with the speed limit increase. Logistic regression models estimated effects on the probability of passenger vehicles exceeding 80, 85, or 90mph and large trucks exceeding 80mph. Within the 80mph zones and at the spillover location in 2014, mean passenger vehicle speeds were significantly higher (4.1% and 3.5%, respectively), as were the probabilities that passenger vehicles exceeded 80mph (122.3% and 88.5%, respectively), than would have been expected without the speed limit increase. Probabilities that passenger vehicles exceeded 85 and 90mph were non-significantly higher than expected within the 80mph zones. For large trucks, the mean speed and probability of exceeding 80mph were higher than expected within the 80mph zones. Only the increase in mean speed was significant. Raising the speed limit was associated with non-significant increases in speed variance. The study adds to the wealth of evidence that increasing speed limits leads to higher travel speeds and an increased probability of exceeding the new speed limit. Results moreover contradict the claim that increasing speed limits reduces speed variance. Although the estimated increases in mean vehicle speeds may appear modest, prior research suggests such increases would be associated with substantial increases in fatal or injury crashes. This should be considered by lawmakers considering increasing speed limits. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.
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Identification of reverse logistics decision types from mathematical models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pascual Cortés Pellicer
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Purpose: The increase in social awareness, politics and environmental regulation, the scarcity of raw materials and the desired “green” image, are some of the reasons that lead companies to decide for implement processes of Reverse Logistics (RL. At the time when incorporate new RL processes as key business processes, new and important decisions need to be made. Identification and knowledge of these decisions, including the information available and the implications for the company or supply chain, will be fundamental for decision-makers to achieve the best results. In the present work, the main types of RL decisions are identified. Design/methodology/approach: This paper is based on the analysis of mathematical models designed as tools to aid decision making in the field of RL. Once the types of interest work to be analyzed are defined, those studies that really deal about the object of study are searched and analyzed. The decision variables that are taken at work are identified and grouped according to the type of decision and, finally, are showed the main types of decisions used in mathematical models developed in the field of RL. Findings: The principal conclusion of the research is that the most commonly addressed decisions with mathematical models in the field of RL are those related to the network’s configuration, followed by tactical/operative decisions such as the selections of product’s treatments to realize and the policy of returns or prices, among other decisions. Originality/value: The identification of the main decisions types of the reverse logistics will allow the managers of these processes to know and understand them better, while offer an integrated vision of them, favoring the achievement of better results.
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A cloud computing based 12-lead ECG telemedicine service
2012-01-01
Background Due to the great variability of 12-lead ECG instruments and medical specialists’ interpretation skills, it remains a challenge to deliver rapid and accurate 12-lead ECG reports with senior cardiologists’ decision making support in emergency telecardiology. Methods We create a new cloud and pervasive computing based 12-lead Electrocardiography (ECG) service to realize ubiquitous 12-lead ECG tele-diagnosis. Results This developed service enables ECG to be transmitted and interpreted via mobile phones. That is, tele-consultation can take place while the patient is on the ambulance, between the onsite clinicians and the off-site senior cardiologists, or among hospitals. Most importantly, this developed service is convenient, efficient, and inexpensive. Conclusions This cloud computing based ECG tele-consultation service expands the traditional 12-lead ECG applications onto the collaboration of clinicians at different locations or among hospitals. In short, this service can greatly improve medical service quality and efficiency, especially for patients in rural areas. This service has been evaluated and proved to be useful by cardiologists in Taiwan. PMID:22838382
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A cloud computing based 12-lead ECG telemedicine service
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hsieh Jui-chien
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Due to the great variability of 12-lead ECG instruments and medical specialists’ interpretation skills, it remains a challenge to deliver rapid and accurate 12-lead ECG reports with senior cardiologists’ decision making support in emergency telecardiology. Methods We create a new cloud and pervasive computing based 12-lead Electrocardiography (ECG service to realize ubiquitous 12-lead ECG tele-diagnosis. Results This developed service enables ECG to be transmitted and interpreted via mobile phones. That is, tele-consultation can take place while the patient is on the ambulance, between the onsite clinicians and the off-site senior cardiologists, or among hospitals. Most importantly, this developed service is convenient, efficient, and inexpensive. Conclusions This cloud computing based ECG tele-consultation service expands the traditional 12-lead ECG applications onto the collaboration of clinicians at different locations or among hospitals. In short, this service can greatly improve medical service quality and efficiency, especially for patients in rural areas. This service has been evaluated and proved to be useful by cardiologists in Taiwan.
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Brain mechanisms for perceptual and reward-related decision-making.
Deco, Gustavo; Rolls, Edmund T; Albantakis, Larissa; Romo, Ranulfo
2013-04-01
Phenomenological models of decision-making, including the drift-diffusion and race models, are compared with mechanistic, biologically plausible models, such as integrate-and-fire attractor neuronal network models. The attractor network models show how decision confidence is an emergent property; and make testable predictions about the neural processes (including neuronal activity and fMRI signals) involved in decision-making which indicate that the medial prefrontal cortex is involved in reward value-based decision-making. Synaptic facilitation in these models can help to account for sequential vibrotactile decision-making, and for how postponed decision-related responses are made. The randomness in the neuronal spiking-related noise that makes the decision-making probabilistic is shown to be increased by the graded firing rate representations found in the brain, to be decreased by the diluted connectivity, and still to be significant in biologically large networks with thousands of synapses onto each neuron. The stability of these systems is shown to be influenced in different ways by glutamatergic and GABAergic efficacy, leading to a new field of dynamical neuropsychiatry with applications to understanding schizophrenia and obsessive-compulsive disorder. The noise in these systems is shown to be advantageous, and to apply to similar attractor networks involved in short-term memory, long-term memory, attention, and associative thought processes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Decision and Inhibitory Rule Optimization for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions
Alsolami, Fawaz
2016-01-01
‘If-then’ rule sets are one of the most expressive and human-readable knowledge representations. This thesis deals with optimization and analysis of decision and inhibitory rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. The most important
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Understanding patients' decisions. Cognitive and emotional perspectives.
Redelmeier, D A; Rozin, P; Kahneman, D
1993-07-07
To describe ways in which intuitive thought processes and feelings may lead patients to make suboptimal medical decisions. Review of past studies from the psychology literature. Intuitive decision making is often appropriate and results in reasonable choices; in some situations, however, intuitions lead patients to make choices that are not in their best interests. People sometimes treat safety and danger categorically, undervalue the importance of a partial risk reduction, are influenced by the way in which a problem is framed, and inappropriately evaluate an action by its subsequent outcome. These strategies help explain examples where risk perceptions conflict with standard scientific analyses. In the domain of emotions, people tend to consider losses as more significant than the corresponding gains, are imperfect at predicting future preferences, distort their memories of past personal experiences, have difficulty resolving inconsistencies between emotions and rationality, and worry with an intensity disproportionate to the actual danger. In general, such intangible aspects of clinical care have received little attention in the medical literature. We suggest that an awareness of how people reason is an important clinical skill that can be promoted by knowledge of selected past studies in psychology.
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[Patients' decision for aesthetic surgery].
Fansa, H; Haller, S
2011-12-01
Aesthetic surgery is a service which entails a high degree of trust. Service evaluation prior to provision is difficult for the patient. This leads to the question of how to manage the service successfully while still focusing on the medical needs. The decision to undergo an operation is not influenced by the operation itself, but by preoperative events which induce the patient to have the operation done. According to "buying decisions" for products or in service management, the decision for an aesthetic operation is extensive; the patient is highly involved and actively searching for information using different directed sources of information. The real "buying decision" consists of 5 phases: problem recognition, gathering of information, alternative education, purchase decision, and post purchase behaviour. A retrospective survey of 40 female patients who have already undergone an aesthetic operation assessed for problem recognition, which types of information were collected prior to the appointment with the surgeon, and why the patients have had the operation at our hospital. They were also asked how many alternative surgeons they had been seen before. Most of the patients had been thinking about undergoing an operation for several years. They mainly used the web for their research and were informed by other (non-aesthetic) physicians/general practitioners. Requested information was about the aesthetic results and possible problems and complications. Patients came based on web information and because of recommendations from other physicians. 60% of all interviewees did not see another surgeon and decided to have the operation because of positive patient-doctor communication and the surgeon's good reputation. Competence was considered to be the most important quality of the surgeon. However, the attribute was judged on subjective parameters. Environment, office rooms and staff were assessed as important but not very important. Costs of surgery were ranked second
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Learning affects top down and bottom up modulation of eye movements in decision making
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Orquin, Jacob Lund; Bagger, Martin; Mueller Loose, Simone
2013-01-01
Repeated decision making is subject to changes over time such as decreases in decision time and information use and increases in decision accuracy. We show that a traditional strategy selection view of decision making cannot account for these temporal dynamics without relaxing main assumptions...... about what defines a decision strategy. As an alternative view we suggest that temporal dynamics in decision making are driven by attentional and perceptual processes and that this view has been expressed in the information reduction hypothesis. We test the information reduction hypothesis by integrating...... it in a broader framework of top down and bottom up processes and derive the predictions that repeated decisions increase top down control of attention capture which in turn leads to a reduction in bottom up attention capture. To test our hypotheses we conducted a repeated discrete choice experiment with three...
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An engineering approach to modelling, decision support and control for sustainable systems.
Day, W; Audsley, E; Frost, A R
2008-02-12
Engineering research and development contributes to the advance of sustainable agriculture both through innovative methods to manage and control processes, and through quantitative understanding of the operation of practical agricultural systems using decision models. This paper describes how an engineering approach, drawing on mathematical models of systems and processes, contributes new methods that support decision making at all levels from strategy and planning to tactics and real-time control. The ability to describe the system or process by a simple and robust mathematical model is critical, and the outputs range from guidance to policy makers on strategic decisions relating to land use, through intelligent decision support to farmers and on to real-time engineering control of specific processes. Precision in decision making leads to decreased use of inputs, less environmental emissions and enhanced profitability-all essential to sustainable systems.
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Relevant Costs for Decision in an Effective Controlling System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mihaela TULVINSCHI
2010-05-01
Full Text Available Controlling is considered a leading concept in the sense of coordination, planning, control and automation, in order to produce the synthesis necessary in decision making. The purpose of article is to highlight the link between a dynamic accounting system and an effective controlling system. The research method used is based on the idea that the cost analysis in an efficient controlling system involves obtaining accounting information from within the entity which management then uses in decision making. In conclusion, we emphasize that an effective controlling system must provide managers the tools to meet their informational needs.
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Intention-Aware Autonomous Driving Decision-Making in an Uncontrolled Intersection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weilong Song
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Autonomous vehicles need to perform social accepted behaviors in complex urban scenarios including human-driven vehicles with uncertain intentions. This leads to many difficult decision-making problems, such as deciding a lane change maneuver and generating policies to pass through intersections. In this paper, we propose an intention-aware decision-making algorithm to solve this challenging problem in an uncontrolled intersection scenario. In order to consider uncertain intentions, we first develop a continuous hidden Markov model to predict both the high-level motion intention (e.g., turn right, turn left, and go straight and the low level interaction intentions (e.g., yield status for related vehicles. Then a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP is built to model the general decision-making framework. Due to the difficulty in solving POMDP, we use proper assumptions and approximations to simplify this problem. A human-like policy generation mechanism is used to generate the possible candidates. Human-driven vehicles’ future motion model is proposed to be applied in state transition process and the intention is updated during each prediction time step. The reward function, which considers the driving safety, traffic laws, time efficiency, and so forth, is designed to calculate the optimal policy. Finally, our method is evaluated in simulation with PreScan software and a driving simulator. The experiments show that our method could lead autonomous vehicle to pass through uncontrolled intersections safely and efficiently.
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Direct Tests on Individual Behaviour in Small Decision-Making Problems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Takemi Fujikawa
2007-10-01
Full Text Available This paper provides an empirical and experimental analysis of individual decision making in small decision-making problems with a series of laboratory experiments. Two experimental treatments with binary small decision-making problems are implemented: (1 the search treatment with the unknown payoff distribution to the decision makers and (2 the choice treatment with the known payoff distribution. A first observation is that in the search treatment the tendency to select best reply to the past performances, and misestimation of the payoff distribution can lead to robust deviations from expected value maximisation. A second observation is concerned with choice problems with two options with the same expected value: one option is more risky with larger payoff variability; the other option is moderate with less payoff variability. Experimental results show that it is likely that the more the decision makers choose a risky option, the higher they can achieve high points, ex post. Finally, I investigate the exploration tendency. Comparison of results between the search treatment and the choice treatment reveals that the additional information to the decision makers enhances expected value maximisation.
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Calm and smart? A selective review of meditation effects on decision making.
Sun, Sai; Yao, Ziqing; Wei, Jaixin; Yu, Rongjun
2015-01-01
Over the past two decades, there has been a growing interest in the use of meditation to improve cognitive performance, emotional balance, and well-being. As a consequence, research into the psychological effects and neural mechanisms of meditation has been accumulating. Whether and how meditation affects decision making is not yet clear. Here, we review evidence from behavioral and neuroimaging studies and summarize the effects of meditation on social and non-social economic decision making. Research suggests that meditation modulates brain activities associated with cognitive control, emotion regulation and empathy, and leads to improved non-social and social decision making. Accordingly, we propose an integrative model in which cognitive control, emotional regulation, and empathic concern mediate the effects of meditation on decision making. This model provides insights into the mechanisms by which meditation affects the decision making process. More evidence is needed to test our explanatory model and to explore the function of specific brain areas and their interactive effects on decision making during meditation training.
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Future of electronic health records: implications for decision support.
Rothman, Brian; Leonard, Joan C; Vigoda, Michael M
2012-01-01
The potential benefits of the electronic health record over traditional paper are many, including cost containment, reductions in errors, and improved compliance by utilizing real-time data. The highest functional level of the electronic health record (EHR) is clinical decision support (CDS) and process automation, which are expected to enhance patient health and healthcare. The authors provide an overview of the progress in using patient data more efficiently and effectively through clinical decision support to improve health care delivery, how decision support impacts anesthesia practice, and how some are leading the way using these systems to solve need-specific issues. Clinical decision support uses passive or active decision support to modify clinician behavior through recommendations of specific actions. Recommendations may reduce medication errors, which would result in considerable savings by avoiding adverse drug events. In selected studies, clinical decision support has been shown to decrease the time to follow-up actions, and prediction has proved useful in forecasting patient outcomes, avoiding costs, and correctly prompting treatment plan modifications by clinicians before engaging in decision-making. Clinical documentation accuracy and completeness is improved by an electronic health record and greater relevance of care data is delivered. Clinical decision support may increase clinician adherence to clinical guidelines, but educational workshops may be equally effective. Unintentional consequences of clinical decision support, such as alert desensitization, can decrease the effectiveness of a system. Current anesthesia clinical decision support use includes antibiotic administration timing, improved documentation, more timely billing, and postoperative nausea and vomiting prophylaxis. Electronic health record implementation offers data-mining opportunities to improve operational, financial, and clinical processes. Using electronic health record data
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Humans Optimize Decision-Making by Delaying Decision Onset
Teichert, Tobias; Ferrera, Vincent P.; Grinband, Jack
2014-01-01
Why do humans make errors on seemingly trivial perceptual decisions? It has been shown that such errors occur in part because the decision process (evidence accumulation) is initiated before selective attention has isolated the relevant sensory information from salient distractors. Nevertheless, it is typically assumed that subjects increase accuracy by prolonging the decision process rather than delaying decision onset. To date it has not been tested whether humans can strategically delay decision onset to increase response accuracy. To address this question we measured the time course of selective attention in a motion interference task using a novel variant of the response signal paradigm. Based on these measurements we estimated time-dependent drift rate and showed that subjects should in principle be able trade speed for accuracy very effectively by delaying decision onset. Using the time-dependent estimate of drift rate we show that subjects indeed delay decision onset in addition to raising response threshold when asked to stress accuracy over speed in a free reaction version of the same motion-interference task. These findings show that decision onset is a critical aspect of the decision process that can be adjusted to effectively improve decision accuracy. PMID:24599295
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Collective Decision Making as the Actualization of Decision Potential
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrej Ule
2009-12-01
Full Text Available This paper presents some characteristics and dilemmas of collective decision making. Collective decision making could be presented as the process of successive crystallization of dominant alternatives under the influence of different decision contexts from primary given decision potentials. This process is presented as the many-phased process of the acting of contextually dependent “energizing factors” of the collective decision making on the “attractiveness matrix” of outcomes of collective decisions. The attractiveness matrix determines the attractiveness for each alternative of decision, and the most attractive alternative in the given situation presents the rational decision in the given situation. In the final phase of decision making holds a context which gets a simplified attractiveness matrix. It corresponds to the common decision for one of the alternatives.
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LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2016-04-04
AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.
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Cuypers, M.; Lamers, R.E.D.; Kil, P.J.M.; The, R.; Karssen, K.; van de Poll-Franse, L.V.; de Vries, M.
2018-01-01
Many new decision aids are developed while aspects of existing decision aids could also be useful, leading to a sub-optimal use of resources. To support treatment decision-making in prostate cancer patients, a pre-existing evidence-based Canadian decision aid was adjusted to Dutch clinical setting.
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Non-thermal transitions in a model inspired by moral decisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alamino, Roberto C
2016-01-01
This work introduces a model in which agents of a network act upon one another according to three different kinds of moral decisions. These decisions are based on an increasing level of sophistication in the empathy capacity of the agent, a hierarchy which we name Piaget ’ s ladder . The decision strategy of the agents is non-rational, in the sense they are arbitrarily fixed, and the model presents quenched disorder given by the distribution of its defining parameters. An analytical solution for this model is obtained in the large system limit as well as a leading order correction for finite-size systems which shows that typical realisations of the model develop a phase structure with both continuous and discontinuous non-thermal transitions. (paper)
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What mental process favours quality decision-making in young soccer players?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Grégory Hallé Petiot
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract Aim The aim of this research is to identify the mechanisms that lead soccer players to make quality tactical decisions, and how these mechanisms evolve over time. Methods Ninety male youth players training in a professional club in Brazil were submitted to a soccer video test which consists in making tactical decisions when the image freezes. These participants were divided in five groups with 18 players in each of following age levels: Under-11, Under-13, Under-15, Under-17 and Under-20. The dominant statements of verbal reports were distributed in categories that reflect key mechanisms. The frequency of correct tactical answers was calculated for each statement types and Standard Residuals (e were calculated to verify the influence of the mechanisms on the quality of tactical decision for each age level. Results Results revealed that evaluation statement was related to accurate tactical decisions from Under-15 age level. Conclusion In conclusion, evaluation of perceived information makes better decision makers.
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Spatio-temporal regulation of Hsp90-ligand complex leads to immune activation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yasuaki eTamura
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Hsp90 is the most abundant cytosolic HSP and is known to act as a molecular chaperone. We found that an Hsp90-cancer antigen peptide complex was efficiently cross-presented by human monocyte-derived dendritic cells and induced peptide-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes. Furthermore, we observed that the internalized Hsp90-peptide complex was strictly sorted to the Rab5+, EEA1+ static early endosome and the Hsp90-chaperoned peptide was processed and bound to MHC class I molecules through a endosome-recycling pathway. We also found that extracellular Hsp90 complexed with CpG-A or self-DNA stimulates production of a large amount of IFN-α from pDCs via static early endosome targeting. Thus, extracellular Hsp90 can target the antigen or nucleic acid to a static early endosome by spatio-temporal regulation. Moreover, we showed that Hsp90 associates with and delivers TLR7/9 from the ER to early endosomes for ligand recognition. Hsp90 inhibitor, geldanamycin derivative inhibited the Hsp90 association with TLR7/9, resulting in inhibition IFN-α production, leading to improvement of SLE symptoms. Interstingly, we observed that serum Hsp90 is clearly increased in patients with active SLE compared with that in patients with inactive disease. Serum Hsp90 detected in SLE patients binds to self-DNA and/or anti-DNA Ab, thus leading to stimulation of pDCs to produce IFN-α. Thus, Hsp90 plays a crucial role in the pathogenesis of SLE and that an Hsp90 inhibitor will therefore provide a new therapeutic approach to SLE and other nucleic acid-related autoimmune diseases. We will discuss how spatio-temporal regulation of Hsp90-ligand complexes within antigen-presenting cells affects the innate immunity and adaptive immunity.
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Doyle, Chris
2014-01-01
The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics were held from 12 to 28 February 2010, and the Paralympic events followed 2 weeks later. During the Games, the weather posed a grave threat to the viability of one venue and created significant complications for the event schedule at others. Forecasts of weather with lead times ranging from minutes to days helped organizers minimize disruptions to sporting events and helped ensure all medal events were successfully completed. Of comparable importance, however, were the scenarios and forecasts of probable weather for the winter in advance of the Games. Forecasts of mild conditions at the time of the Games helped the Games' organizers mitigate what would have been very serious potential consequences for at least one venue. Snowmaking was one strategy employed well in advance of the Games to prepare for the expected conditions. This short study will focus on how operational decisions were made by the Games' organizers on the basis of both climatological and snowmaking forecasts during the pre-Games winter. An attempt will be made to quantify, economically, the value of some of the snowmaking forecasts made for the Games' operators. The results obtained indicate that although the economic value of the snowmaking forecast was difficult to determine, the Games' organizers valued the forecast information greatly. This suggests that further development of probabilistic forecasts for applications like pre-Games snowmaking would be worthwhile.
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Ejem, Deborah; Nicholas Dionne-Odom, J; Turkman, Yasemin; Knight, Sara; Willis, Dan; Kaufman, Peter; Bakitas, Marie
2018-04-30
Women with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) face numerous, complex treatment and advance care planning (ACP) decisions. Our aim was to develop a better understanding of women with MBC's decision-making preferences overtime and relative to specific types of decisions. Convergent, parallel mixed-methods study. Participants completed the Control Preferences Scale (CPS) and a semi-structured interview of decision-making experiences at enrollment (T1; n=22) and when facing a decision or 3 months later (T2; n=19). We categorized women's decision-making experience descriptions into one of the CPS decisional styles and compared them to their CPS response. We constructed an analytic grid that aligned the interview-determined treatment and ACP decisional preferences with the CPS categories at T1 and T2 and calculated Cohen's kappa coefficient and congruence percentages. Participants (n=22) were White (100%), averaged 62 years, married (54%), retired (45%), and had a bachelor's degree (45%). Congruence between CPS response and interview-determined treatment preferences at T1 was 32% (kappa=0.083) and 33% (kappa=0.120) at T2. Congruence between CPS survey response and interview-determined ACP preferences at T1 was 22.7% (kappa =0.092) at T1 and 11% (kappa = 0.011) at T2. Although women selected a "shared" treatment decision-making style using the CPS validated tool, when interviewed their descriptions generally reflected a passive process in which they followed the oncologists' treatment suggestions. Future research should explore whether the incongruence between stated and actual decision-making style is a function of misinterpreting the CPS choices or a true inconsistency that could lead to adverse consequences such as decisional regret. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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Gilis, Bart; Helsen, Werner; Catteeuw, Peter; Wagemans, Johan
2008-01-01
This study investigated the offside decision-making process in association football. The first aim was to capture the specific offside decision-making skills in complex dynamic events. Second, we analyzed the type of errors to investigate the factors leading to incorrect decisions. Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA; n = 29)…
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Cognitive Reflection, Decision Biases, and Response Times.
Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Garagnani, Michele; Hügelschäfer, Sabine
2016-01-01
We present novel evidence on response times and personality traits in standard questions from the decision-making literature where responses are relatively slow (medians around half a minute or above). To this end, we measured response times in a number of incentivized, framed items (decisions from description) including the Cognitive Reflection Test, two additional questions following the same logic, and a number of classic questions used to study decision biases in probability judgments (base-rate neglect, the conjunction fallacy, and the ratio bias). All questions create a conflict between an intuitive process and more deliberative thinking. For each item, we then created a non-conflict version by either making the intuitive impulse correct (resulting in an alignment question), shutting it down (creating a neutral question), or making it dominant (creating a heuristic question). For CRT questions, the differences in response times are as predicted by dual-process theories, with alignment and heuristic variants leading to faster responses and neutral questions to slower responses than the original, conflict questions. For decision biases (where responses are slower), evidence is mixed. To explore the possible influence of personality factors on both choices and response times, we used standard personality scales including the Rational-Experiential Inventory and the Big Five, and used them as controls in regression analysis.
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Decision making in Global Product Development: Case studies from Danish industry
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Søndergaard, Erik Stefan; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema
2015-01-01
Globalisation leads engineering firms to replace traditional co-located development with global distributed development activities. They make decisions regarding global product development; often with limited experience and information available. Previous research points towards a need for better...
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Scott, Peter J; Navarro, Cesar; Stevenson, Mike; Murphy, John C; Bennett, Johan R; Owens, Colum; Hamilton, Andrew; Manoharan, Ganesh; Adgey, A A Jennifer
2011-01-01
For the assessment of patients with chest pain, the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is the initial investigation. Major management decisions are based on the ECG findings, both for attempted coronary artery revascularization and risk stratification. The aim of this study was to determine if the current 6 precordial leads (V(1)-V(6)) are optimally located for the detection of ST-segment elevation in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We analyzed 528 (38% anterior [200], 44% inferior [233], and 18% lateral [95]) patients with STEMI with both a 12-lead ECG and an 80-lead body surface map (BSM) ECG (Prime ECG, Heartscape Technologies, Bangor, Northern Ireland). Body surface map was recorded within 15 minutes of the 12-lead ECG during the acute event and before revascularization. ST-segment elevation of each lead on the BSM was compared with the corresponding 12-lead precordial leads (V(1)-V(6)) for anterior STEMI. In addition, for lateral STEMI, leads I and aVL of the BSM were also compared; and limb leads II, III, aVF of the BSM were compared with inferior unipolar BSM leads for inferior STEMI. Leads with the greatest mean ST-segment elevation were selected, and significance was determined by analysis of variance of the mean ST segment. For anterior STEMI, leads V(1), V(2), 32, 42, 51, and 57 had the greatest mean ST elevation. These leads are located in the same horizontal plane as that of V(1) and V(2). Lead 32 had a significantly greater mean ST elevation than the corresponding precordial lead V(3) (P = .012); and leads 42, 51, and 57 were also significantly greater than corresponding leads V(4), V(5), V(6), respectively (P mean ST-segment elevation; and lead III was significantly superior to the inferior unipolar leads (7, 17, 27, 37, 47, 55, and 61) of the BSM (P optimal placement for the diagnosis of anterior and lateral STEMI and appear superior to leads V(3), V(4), V(5), and V(6). This is of significant clinical interest, not only for ease and
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Wiederkehr, S; Barat, M; Dehail, P; de Sèze, M; Lozes-Boudillon, S; Giroire, J-M
2005-02-01
At the chronic stage, severe traumatic brain injured (TBI) patients experience difficulty in making decisions. Several studies have demonstrated the involvement of the prefrontal cortex, in particular the orbitofrontal region, in decision-making. The aim of the present study was to validate a decision-making task in this population and to ascertain whether the components of their dysexecutive syndrome may affect their decision-making and lead to difficulties for social rehabilitation. Fifteen TBI patients and 15 controlled subjects matched for age, sex and years of education were assessed by a battery of executive tests (GREFEX) and by the gambling task (GT). The TBI subjects performed significantly worse than the controlled group in five out of six GREFEX tests. The TBI choices are significantly more disadvantageous than the choices of the control group when considering the three last blocks of 20 cards of the GT. The GT total score correlated significantly with execution time of the Stroop interference condition and the Trail Making Task B, as well as with the two measures (correct sequence span and number of crossed boxes) of the double condition of Baddeley's task. We postulate that executive functioning (supervisory attentional system) influence performance in the gambling task through mechanisms of inhibitory control, divided attention and working memory. Thus, this task seems to be determined by multiple factors; the process of decision-making may depend on frontal integrity.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. V. Shabelnikova
2014-01-01
Full Text Available In order to manage the quality of OJSC "MMC "Norilsk Nickel" products the Centre of Certified Reference Material Development has developed and is currently successfully implementing a system of operations provision with interstate and state certified reference materials of nickel, cobalt and copper composition. The system wholly corresponds to modern metrological requirements. The Centre of Reference Materials Development, fulfilling leading function in the field of state certified reference material production and supply to the Company's operations, aims its activity both at the development of new types of certified reference materials in the form of metals and at widening the range of synthetic oxide certified reference materials. Developed for the first time, metallic state certified reference materials of nickel, cobalt composition with certified mass fractions of oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, sulfur and carbon were put into practice of the Company's analytical services work. Certified reference material use provides the possibility to take into account requirements of some consumers to the quality of nickel and produce by OJSC "MMC "Norilsk Nickel" and also helps to raise competitive ability of the products on the world metals market. Over recent years the Centre fulfilled the work on the development, certification in established order, approval and entering into the State Register twenty five types of state certified reference materials. Certified reference materials are intended for fulfillment of the analysis of chemical composition of nickel, cobalt and copper in terms of their conformity with both national and international standards.
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Self-Stigma and Consumer Participation in Shared Decision Making in Mental Health Services.
Hamann, Johannes; Bühner, Markus; Rüsch, Nicolas
2017-08-01
People with mental illness struggle with symptoms and with public stigma. Some accept common prejudices and lose self-esteem, resulting in shame and self-stigma, which may affect their interactions with mental health professionals. This study explored whether self-stigma and shame are associated with consumers' preferences for participation in medical decision making and their behavior in psychiatric consultations. In a cross-sectional study conducted in Germany, 329 individuals with a diagnosis of a schizophrenia spectrum disorder or an affective disorder and their psychiatrists provided sociodemographic and illness-related information. Self-stigma, shame, locus of control, and views about clinical decision making were assessed by self-report. Psychiatrists rated their impression of the decision-making behavior of consumers. Regression analyses and structural equation modeling were used to determine the association of self-stigma and shame with clinical decision making. Self-stigma was not related to consumers' participation preferences, but it was associated with some aspects of communicative behavior. Active and critical behavior (for example, expressing views, daring to challenge the doctor's opinion, and openly speaking out about disagreements with the doctor) was associated with less shame, less self-stigma, more self-responsibility, less attribution of external control to powerful others, and more years of education. Self-stigma and shame were associated with less participative and critical behavior, which probably leads to clinical encounters that involve less shared decision making and more paternalistic decision making. Paternalistic decision making may reinforce self-stigma and lead to poorer health outcomes. Therefore, interventions that reduce self-stigma and increase consumers' critical and participative communication may improve health outcomes.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Keppo, Ilkka; Strubegger, Manfred
2010-01-01
This paper presents the development and demonstration of a limited foresight energy system model. The presented model is implemented as an extension to a large, linear optimization model, MESSAGE. The motivation behind changing the model is to provide an alternative decision framework, where information for the full time frame is not available immediately and sequential decision making under incomplete information is implied. While the traditional optimization framework provides the globally optimal decisions for the modeled problem, the framework presented here may offer a better description of the decision environment, under which decision makers must operate. We further modify the model to accommodate flexible dynamic constraints, which give an option to implement investments faster, albeit with a higher cost. Finally, the operation of the model is demonstrated using a moving window of foresight, with which decisions are taken for the next 30 years, but can be reconsidered later, when more information becomes available. We find that the results demonstrate some of the pitfalls of short term planning, e.g. lagging investments during earlier periods lead to higher requirements later during the century. Furthermore, the energy system remains more reliant on fossil based energy carriers, leading to higher greenhouse gas emissions.
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The Effect of Image Compatibility and Escalation of Commitment on Decision Performance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Harris K. Turino
2012-04-01
Full Text Available This study aims at empirically examining the extent to which Image Theory, initially developed as a theoretical basis for selecting a strategy or a decision, can be a theoretical basis for predicting a decision performance in two opposite frames: positive and negative. Image compatibility are employed to operationalize such a theory and the decision under study is progress decision represented by escalation of commitment. Thus, this study also empirically examines the connection between image compatibility and escalation of commitment as well as escalation of commitment as a mediator of the relationship between image compatibility and decision performance. The research context is Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX that suffered from crisis in the past year (negative frame yet has been recovered recently (positive frame. The respondents are 229 individual investors in IDX. They are involved in day-to-day decision making (progress decision making with regard to their investment portofolio. The results of this study show that high image compatibility tends to lead to better decision performance in both frames. However, image compatibility may only positively affect the escalation of commitment in positive frame
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Chambers, David W
2011-01-01
A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.
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Acceptability, acceptance and decision making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ackerschott, H.
2002-01-01
There is a fundamental difference between the acceptability of a civilizatory or societal risk and the acceptability of the decision-making process that leads to a civilizatory or societal risk. The analysis of individual risk decisions - regarding who, executes when which indisputably hazardous, unhealthy or dangerous behaviour under which circumstances - is not helpful in finding solutions for the political decisions at hand in Germany concerning nuclear energy in particular or energy in general. The debt for implementation of any technology, in the sense of making the technology a success in terms of broad acceptance and general utilisation, lies with the particular industry involved. Regardless of the technology, innovation research identifies the implementation phase as most critical to the success of any innovation. In this sense, nuclear technology is at best still an innovation, because the implementation has not yet been completed. Fear and opposition to innovation are ubiquitous. Even the economy - which is often described as 'rational' - is full of this resistance. Innovation has an impact on the pivotal point between stability, the presupposition for the successful execution of decisions already taken and instability, which includes insecurity, but is also necessary for the success of further development. By definition, innovations are beyond our sphere of experience; not at the level of reliability and trust yet to come. Yet they are evaluated via the simplifying heuristics for making decisions proven not only to be necessary and useful, but also accurate in the familiar. The 'settlement of the debt of implementation', the accompanying communication, the decision-making procedures concerning the regulation of averse effects of the technology, but also the tailoring of the new technology or service itself must be directed to appropriate target groups. But the group often aimed at in the nuclear debate, the group, which largely determines political
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Decision support system for the operating room rescheduling problem.
van Essen, J Theresia; Hurink, Johann L; Hartholt, Woutske; van den Akker, Bernd J
2012-12-01
Due to surgery duration variability and arrivals of emergency surgeries, the planned Operating Room (OR) schedule is disrupted throughout the day which may lead to a change in the start time of the elective surgeries. These changes may result in undesirable situations for patients, wards or other involved departments, and therefore, the OR schedule has to be adjusted. In this paper, we develop a decision support system (DSS) which assists the OR manager in this decision by providing the three best adjusted OR schedules. The system considers the preferences of all involved stakeholders and only evaluates the OR schedules that satisfy the imposed resource constraints. The decision rules used for this system are based on a thorough analysis of the OR rescheduling problem. We model this problem as an Integer Linear Program (ILP) which objective is to minimize the deviation from the preferences of the considered stakeholders. By applying this ILP to instances from practice, we determined that the given preferences mainly lead to (i) shifting a surgery and (ii) scheduling a break between two surgeries. By using these changes in the DSS, the performed simulation study shows that less surgeries are canceled and patients and wards are more satisfied, but also that the perceived workload of several departments increases to compensate this. The system can also be used to judge the acceptability of a proposed initial OR schedule.
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Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making
Woodhouse, C. A.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.; Garfin, G. M.; Scott, C. A.
2011-12-01
understanding between scientists and decision-makers, leading to enhanced outcomes in the fields of climate science, water resources, and ecosystem services.
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PREMISES OF BEHAVIORAL FINANCE IN RATIONAL DECISION-MAKING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Laurentiu Droj
2016-07-01
Full Text Available One cannot separate decision from psychology of human being. People see world by perception and this leads to various ways of understanding even the most concrete or certain things. Financial literature reflects the subjective nature of human being in making decisions by classifying decision-making process into being 'rationally' oriented or the opposite, 'irrational', according to individual’s attitude towards risk – 'appetite' or 'aversion'. Process of understanding risk associated with future financial returns implies attaching mental probabilities to it. This activity is always affected by human nature of agents that take financial decisions, therefore bearing risk. Psychological factors such as perception, framing effect, information asymmetry, irrationality, emotions are accompanying every financial decision. Paper intends to study the direct relationship between psychological traits of a human being playing the role of a decisional agent in financial context. Financial decisions are always accompanied by the notion of probability in defining what we call as 'expected' returns that translate into risk associated with financial investments. Empirical analysis done on the financial market reflects that agents use their perception on risk of gaining or losing from a certain financial transaction to decide whether to invest or not. The notion of 'expected utility' has been complementary used with the one of 'prospect value' as financial literature evolved over time and researchers brought new insights into the mechanism of financial decision. This paper studies direct relationship between psychological traits of a human being according to classical and rational decision-making process in the light of the prospect theory and risk attitude regarding financial outcome of decisions. In this sense, an econometric model is tested on the international financial market in order to find out what kind of subjective factors lie hidden in an investor
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NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — Geodetic Networks dataset current as of 2007. This is udated by the use of GPS and updated weekely. It consist of interstate highways, state highways, major roads...
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Perkovic, Sonja; Orquin, Jacob Lund
2018-01-01
Ecological rationality results from matching decision strategies to appropriate environmental structures, but how does the matching happen? We propose that people learn the statistical structure of the environment through observation and use this learned structure to guide ecologically rational behavior. We tested this hypothesis in the context of organic foods. In Study 1, we found that products from healthful food categories are more likely to be organic than products from nonhealthful food categories. In Study 2, we found that consumers' perceptions of the healthfulness and prevalence of organic products in many food categories are accurate. Finally, in Study 3, we found that people perceive organic products as more healthful than nonorganic products when the statistical structure justifies this inference. Our findings suggest that people believe organic foods are more healthful than nonorganic foods and use an organic-food cue to guide their behavior because organic foods are, on average, 30% more healthful.
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Martin, J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Kendall, W.L.
2009-01-01
Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation. Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial changes in system dynamics. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives (determined by human values) and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. The approach that we present focuses directly on the objectives of management, with an aim to providing decisions that are optimal with respect to those objectives. This approach clearly distinguishes the components of the decision process that are inherently subjective (management objectives, potential management actions) from those that are more objective (system models, estimates of system state). Optimization based on these components then leads to decision matrices specifying optimal actions to be taken at various values of system state variables. Values of state variables separating different actions in such matrices are viewed as decision thresholds. Utility thresholds are included in the objectives
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IT Strategy and Decision-Making: A Comparison of Four Universities
Wilmore, Andrew
2014-01-01
Universities are increasingly dependent on information technology (IT) to support delivery of their objectives. It is crucial, therefore, that the IT investments made lead to successful outcomes. This study analyses the governance structures and decision-making processes used to approve and prioritise IT projects. Factors influencing an…
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Johansson, Anja
2012-01-01
Artificial intelligence is often used when creating believable virtual characters in games or in other types of virtual environments. The intelligent behavior these characters show to the player is often flawed, leading to a worse gameplay experience. In particular, there is often little or no emotional impact on the decision making of the characters. This thesis focuses on extending decision-making and pathfinding mechanisms for virtual characters, with a particular focus on the use of emoti...
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Improving clinical decision support using data mining techniques
Burn-Thornton, Kath E.; Thorpe, Simon I.
1999-02-01
Physicians, in their ever-demanding jobs, are looking to decision support systems for aid in clinical diagnosis. However, clinical decision support systems need to be of sufficiently high accuracy that they help, rather than hinder, the physician in his/her diagnosis. Decision support systems with accuracies, of patient state determination, of greater than 80 percent, are generally perceived to be sufficiently accurate to fulfill the role of helping the physician. We have previously shown that data mining techniques have the potential to provide the underpinning technology for clinical decision support systems. In this paper, an extension of the work in reverence 2, we describe how changes in data mining methodologies, for the analysis of 12-lead ECG data, improve the accuracy by which data mining algorithms determine which patients are suffering from heart disease. We show that the accuracy of patient state prediction, for all the algorithms, which we investigated, can be increased by up to 6 percent, using the combination of appropriate test training ratios and 5-fold cross-validation. The use of cross-validation greater than 5-fold, appears to reduce the improvement in algorithm classification accuracy gained by the use of this validation method. The accuracy of 84 percent in patient state predictions, obtained using the algorithm OCI, suggests that this algorithm will be capable of providing the required accuracy for clinical decision support systems.
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[Adolf Lorenz's decision to study medicine].
Holzer, Gerold
2017-04-01
The childhood and adolescence years are decisive in life. It was the aim of this study to analyze the pubertal years of Adolf Lorenz, the founder of Austrian orthopedics who left his mark in all parts of the world, with respect to his choice of profession. As the son of poor people from the former frontier region of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy with Poland, then known as Austrian-Silesia, he was provided with a scholarship in a boys' choir at a Carinthian monastery and then continued his studies at a college in Klagenfurt, capital of Carinthia. He spent the last year at college as a private teacher in Transylvania and passed his maturity examination as an extraordinary pupil. During this time he decided to study medicine. The people he then met and the events leading to this decision are illustrated in this article.
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Calm and Smart? A Selective Review on Effects of Meditation on Decision Making
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sai eSun
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Over the past two decades, there has been a growing interest in the use of meditation to improve cognitive performance, emotional balance, and well-being. As a consequence, research into the psychological effects and neural mechanisms of meditation has been accumulating. Whether and how meditation affects decision making is not yet clear. Here, we review evidence from behavioral and neuroimaging studies and summarize the effects of meditation on social and nonsocial economic decision making. Research suggests that meditation modulates brain activities associated with cognitive control, emotion regulation and empathy, and leads to improved nonsocial and social decision making. Accordingly, we propose an integrative model in which cognitive control, emotional regulation, and empathic concern mediate the effects of meditation on decision making. This model provides insights into the mechanisms by which meditation affects the decision making process. More evidence is needed to test our explanatory model and to explore the function of specific brain areas and their interactive effects on decision making during meditation training.
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Risk Decision Making Based on Decision-theoretic Rough Set: A Three-way View Decision Model
Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou
2011-01-01
Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...
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Screening children for elevated blood lead - Learnings from the literature
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boreland, Frances; Lyle, David
2008-01-01
Introduction: Although it is important that children at risk of developing elevated blood lead receive regular screening, attendance at screening programs is variable. A literature review was undertaken to better understand the factors that affect carers' decisions about whether or not to take their children for blood lead screening. Method: Electronic databases (Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Psychinfo) were searched to identify relevant publications, supported by reviewing reference lists of identified articles and searching with internet-based search engines. Results: Thirty-four published studies dealing with blood lead screening rates were identified, of which only seven papers focused specifically on parent's attitudes to blood lead screening. The barriers to and enablers of screening for elevated blood lead levels appear to be similar to those identified for other screening programs. Discussion: It is recommended that attendance at screening be routinely monitored, and that where participation is suboptimal further research be undertaken, in close co-operation with affected communities or sub-groups, to determine how best to encourage screening and to protect children from lead. It is important to minimize stigma and to ensure, as far as possible, that practical barriers such as lack of transport do not restrict access to screening programs
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Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yan Liu
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.
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The use of decision analytic techniques in energy policy decisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.O.
1986-08-01
The report reviews decision analytic techniques and their applications to energy policy decision making. Decision analysis consists in techniques for structuring the essential elements of a decision problem and mathematical methods for ranking the alternatives from a set of simple judgments. Because modeling subjective judgments is characteristic of decision analysis, the models can incorporate qualitative factors and values, which escape traditional energy modeling. Decision analysis has been applied to choices among energy supply alternatives, siting energy facilities, selecting nuclear waste repositories, selecting research and development projects, risk analysis and prioritizing alternative energy futures. Many applications are done in universities and research institutions, but during the 70's the use of decision analysis has spread both to the public and the private sector. The settings where decision analysis has been applied range from aiding a single decision maker to clarifying opposing points of view. Decision analytic methods have also been linked with energy models. The most valuable result of decision analysis is the clarification of the problem at hand. Political decisions cannot be made solely on the basis of models, but models can be used to gain insight of the decision situation. Models inevitably simplify reality, so they must be regarded only as aids to judgment. So far there has been only one decision analysis of energy policy issues in Finland with actual political decision makers as participants. The experiences of this project and numerous foreign applications do however suggest that the decision analytic approach is useful in energy policy questions. The report presents a number of Finnish energy policy decisions where decision analysis might prove useful. However, the applicability of the methods depends crucially on the actual circumstances at hand
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Regulatory decision making by decision analyses
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.
1993-11-01
The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)
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2010-04-01
... § 416.1484 Appeals Council review of administrative law judge decision in a case remanded by a Federal... proceedings leading to the final decision in your case or subsequently considered by the administrative law... reversing the decision of the administrative law judge, or it will remand the case to an administrative law...
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Keys, Daniel J; Schwartz, Barry
2007-06-01
For more than 30 years, decision-making research has documented that people often violate various principles of rationality, some of which are so fundamental that theorists of rationality rarely bother to state them. We take these characteristics of decision making as a given but argue that it is problematic to conclude that they typically represent departures from rationality. The very psychological processes that lead to "irrational" decisions (e.g., framing, mental accounting) continue to exert their influence when one experiences the results of the decisions. That is, psychological processes that affect decisions may be said also to "leak" into one's experience. The implication is that formal principles of rationality do not provide a good enough normative standard against which to assess decision making. Instead, what is needed is a substantive theory of rationality-one that takes subjective experience seriously, considers both direct and indirect consequences of particular decisions, considers how particular decisions fit into life as a whole, and considers the effects of decisions on others. Formal principles may play a role as approximations of the substantive theory that can be used by theorists and decision makers in cases in which the formal principles can capture most of the relevant considerations and leakage into experience is negligible. © 2007 Association for Psychological Science.
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Tactical decision making under stress (TADMUS) decision support system
Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.
1996-01-01
A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes and cognitive analysis of the decision making problems faced by Navy tactical officers in a shipboard Combat Information Center. Baseline testing in high intensity, peace keeping, littoral scenarios indicated...
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The normalization heuristic: an untested hypothesis that may misguide medical decisions.
Aberegg, Scott K; O'Brien, James M
2009-06-01
Medical practice is increasingly informed by the evidence from randomized controlled trials. When such evidence is not available, clinical hypotheses based on pathophysiological reasoning and common sense guide clinical decision making. One commonly utilized general clinical hypothesis is the assumption that normalizing abnormal laboratory values and physiological parameters will lead to improved patient outcomes. We refer to the general use of this clinical hypothesis to guide medical therapeutics as the "normalization heuristic". In this paper, we operationally define this heuristic and discuss its limitations as a rule of thumb for clinical decision making. We review historical and contemporaneous examples of normalization practices as empirical evidence for the normalization heuristic and to highlight its frailty as a guide for clinical decision making.
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Perelman, Lewis J.; Bergquist, William H.
A 5-month project was undertaken at the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education to do a preliminary study of the implications of growth policy for postsecondary education. The decision to focus on this level of education was based on the belief that the existing problems of growth and its limits have become too urgent to be left to…
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Decision making by relatives about brain death organ donation: an integrative review.
de Groot, Jack; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra; Hoedemaekers, Cornelia; Hoitsma, Andries; Smeets, Wim; van Leeuwen, Evert
2012-06-27
Deciding about the organ donation of one's brain-dead beloved often occurs in an unexpected and delicate situation. We explored the decision making of the relatives of potential brain-dead donors, its evaluation, and the factors influencing decision making. We used the integrative review method. Our search included 10 databases. Inclusion criteria were presence of the donation request or the subsequent decision process. Three authors independently assessed the eligibility of identified articles. Content analysis of 70 included articles led to three themes: decision, evaluation, and support. We extracted results and recommendations concerning these three themes. The timing of the request and understandable information influence the decision. The relatives evaluate their decision differently: in case of refusal, approximately one third regret their decision, and in case of consent, approximately one tenth mention regret. The relatives are often ambivalent about their values (protection, altruism, and respect) and the deceased's wishes, not wanting additional suffering either for their beloved or for themselves. Support is mainly focused on increasing consent rates and less on satisfaction with the decision. Evaluation of decision making by the relatives of potential brain-dead donors reveals possibilities for improving the decision process. Special skills of the requester, attention to the circumstances, and unconditional support for the relatives might prevent the relatives' regret about refusal and unnecessary loss of organs. We hypothesize that support in exploring the relatives' values and the deceased's wishes can lead to stable decisions. This hypothesis deserves further investigation.
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The Effects Of Decision Framing Influences On Decision Performance
David Shelby Harrison; Sanela Porca
2011-01-01
This study investigates the effects of two components of decision framing [commitment and verbalization] in decision optimization, and how information quality impacts framing effects on decision performance. The theory of cognitive dissonance predicts that commitment to a decision will foster insensitivity to alternative choices. We find that such bias can be beneficial in certain decision strategies, and more powerfully influential as information quality worsens. We used an interactive compu...
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Decision and Inhibitory Trees for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions
Azad, Mohammad
2018-01-01
Decision trees are one of the most commonly used tools in decision analysis, knowledge representation, machine learning, etc., for its simplicity and interpretability. We consider an extension of dynamic programming approach to process the whole set
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ming-Feng Yang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Nowadays, in order to achieve advantages in supply chain management, how to keep inventory in adequate level and how to enhance customer service level are two critical practices for decision makers. Generally, uncertain lead time and defective products have much to do with inventory and service level. Therefore, this study mainly aims at developing a multiechelon integrated just-in-time inventory model with uncertain lead time and imperfect quality to enhance the benefits of the logistics model. In addition, the Ant Colony Algorithm (ACA is established to determine the optimal solutions. Moreover, based on our proposed model and analysis, the ACA is more efficient than Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO and Lingo in SMEIJI model. An example is provided in this study to illustrate how production run and defective rate have an effect on system costs. Finally, the results of our research could provide some managerial insights which support decision makers in real-world operations.
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Applications of decision theory to test-based decision making
van der Linden, Willem J.
1987-01-01
The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be
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Azad, Mohammad
2016-10-20
The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision rules. This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bounds on the precision of this algorithm relative to the length of rules. To illustrate proposed approach we study a problem of recognition of labels of points in the plain. This paper contains also results of experiments with modified decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository.
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Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata
2016-01-01
The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision rules. This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bounds on the precision of this algorithm relative to the length of rules. To illustrate proposed approach we study a problem of recognition of labels of points in the plain. This paper contains also results of experiments with modified decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository.
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Doctor's dilemma: Medical decision making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ganatra, R.D.
1992-01-01
How a doctor arrives at a decision is of interest to both the developed and the developing countries. The developed and the developing want to walk on the same road but from different directions: one wants to develop a little more and the other wants to develop a little less for cost containment. To justify nuclear medicine in a developing country we have to see nuclear medicine in a new role. It is not for putting the diagnostic labels, not for differential diagnosis as we have been conditioned to think so far. In a developing country it should be for differential management, How does it alter the management decision in respect to a particular patient? If management outcomes are restricted, there is no need for an investigation which does not help in any way the management of the patient. If there is no bypass surgery, what use is the thallium perfusion? Although primarily a diagnostic discipline for its justification and survival in the developing country it should lead to a sensible differential management
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Norrby, S.
2000-01-01
Uncertainties about the safety of final disposal may lead to unwillingness to take decisions about waste management issues that may seem to be non-reversible. This has lead to proposals that we should wait with decisions on final measures and instead store the waste for some period of time. Also the possibility of retrieval may lead to decisions not to go for permanent disposal but instead to retrievable disposal. These aspects and the pros and cons are discussed both from a more general perspective and also with some reflections from the Swedish programme for nuclear waste management and disposal. (author)
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Deontic Reasoning with Emotional Content: Evolutionary Psychology or Decision Theory?
Perham, Nick; Oaksford, Mike
2005-01-01
Three experiments investigated the contrasting predictions of the evolutionary and decision-theoretic approaches to deontic reasoning. Two experiments embedded a hazard management (HM) rule in a social contract scenario that should lead to competition between innate modules. A 3rd experiment used a pure HM task. Threatening material was also…
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Decision insight into stakeholder conflict for ERN.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Siirola, John; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Benz, Zachary O.; Stansbury, Melanie; Richards, Elizabeth H.; Turnley, Jessica Glicken (Galisteo Consulting); Warrender, Christina E.; Morrow, James Dan
2012-02-01
. Stakeholder interaction with the model and associated data capture was facilitated through two very different modes of engagement, one a standard interface involving radio buttons, slider bars, graphs and plots, while the other utilized an immersive serious gaming interface. The decision support architecture developed through this project was piloted in the Middle Rio Grande Basin to examine how these tools might be utilized to promote enhanced understanding and decision-making in the context of complex water resource management issues. Potential applications of this architecture and its capacity to lead to enhanced understanding and decision-making was assessed through qualitative interviews with study participants who represented key stakeholders in the basin.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M.Alikhani*
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The present study was to theorize about the process of coping with sexual disorders leading to marital conflicts. The process of coping with sexual disorders leading to marital conflicts was examined with 12 couples based on grounded theory. The focus of the study was on the period from commencing of symptoms up to start of treatment. Data were collected through semi-organized interviews and were analyzed through constant comparisons. It was recognized that problem solving skills was the main variable in the process of coping with sexual disorders leading to marital conflicts. The main variable consisted of two levels including ‘single-couple’ and ‘interactional’ and five main categories named as recognizing sexual disorder symptoms, personal assessment, self-attempt, threat feeling, consulting with others which ultimately led to searching help, consultation, and treatment. The preliminary individual decision to decrease the symptoms resulted in self-treatment which consequently defered the treatment period. Age, gender, education level, socio-economical status and pre-knowledge of disorders affected people`s decision making time. Individuals with sexual disorders defer the start of treatment and this can bring a family to separation. Couples should take pre-marriage counseling sessions in order to make decision for treatment at the right time when faced by sexual disorders.
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Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays
Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.
1998-01-01
To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...
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Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis
Maite Sara Mashego
2015-01-01
Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anđelković Dragan
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Rationality of decision maker is often reduced by heuristics and biases, and also by different types of external stimuli. In decision-making process individuals simplify phases of information selection and information processing by using heuristics, simple rules which are focused on one aspect of complex problem and ignore other aspects, and in that way 'speed up' decision-making process. This method of making decisions, although efficient in making simple decisions, can lead to mistakes in probability assessment and diminish rationality of decision maker. In that way it can influence drastically on transaction outcome for which decision is being made. The subject of this study is influence of representativeness heuristic on making financial decisions by individuals, and influence of consumption motives on stereotypical elements in information processing phase. Study was conducted by determining attitudes of respondents toward currencies, and then by conducting experiments with aim of analyzing method of making decisions on loan currency. Aim of study was determining whether and to what extent representativeness influence choice of currency in process of making loan decisions. Results of conducted behavioral experiments show that respondents, opposite to rational model, do not asses probability by processing available information and in accordance with their preferences, but by comparing decision objects with other objects which have same attributes, showing in that way moderate positive correlation between stereotypical attitudes and choice of loan currency. Experiments have shown that instrumental motive significantly influence representativeness heuristics, that is, individuals are prone to process information with diminished influence of stereotypical attitudes caused by external stimuli, in situations where there is no so called 'hedonistic decision-making'. Respondents have been making more efficient decisions if they had motive which does
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Individual decision making can drive epidemics: a fuzzy cognitive map study
Mei, S.; Zhu, Y.; Qiu, X.; Zhou, X.; Zu, Z.; Boukhanovsky, A.V.; Sloot, P.M.A.
2014-01-01
Existing studies on the propagation of infectious diseases have not sufficiently considered the uncertainties related to individual behavior and its influence on individual decision making to prevent infections, even though it is well known that changes in behavior can lead to variations in the
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Association of sleep and fatigue with decision regret among critical care nurses.
Scott, Linda D; Arslanian-Engoren, Cynthia; Engoren, Milo C
2014-01-01
The effects of inadequate sleep on clinical decisions may be important for patients in critical care units, who are often more vulnerable than patients in other units. Fatigued nurses are more likely than well-rested nurses to make faulty decisions that lead to decision regret, a negative cognitive emotion that occurs when the actual outcome differs from the desired or expected outcome. To examine the association between selected sleep variables, impairment due to fatigue, and clinical-decision self-efficacy and regret among critical care nurses. Decision regret was the primary outcome variable. Methods A nonexperimental, descriptive design and extant measures were used to obtain data from a random sample of full-time nurses. Binary logistic regression models were used to examine the association between sleep variables, fatigue, and clinical-decision self-efficacy and regret. The discrimination of the models was compared with the C statistic, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A total of 605 nurses returned the questionnaires (17% response rate). Among these, decision regret was reported by 157 of 546 (29%). Nurses with decision regret reported more fatigue, more daytime sleepiness, less intershift recovery, and worse sleep quality than did nurses without decision regret. Being male, working a 12-hour shift, and clinical-decision satisfaction were significantly associated with decision regret (C statistic, 0.719; SE, 0.024). Nurses who experience impairments due to fatigue, loss of sleep, and inability to recover between shifts are more likely than unimpaired nurses to report decision regret.
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VALDOR 2003. Values in Decisions on Risk. Proceedings
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Andersson, Kjell (ed.) [Karinta-Konsult, Taeby (Sweden)
2003-10-01
Many decisions that may have an impact on human health and the environment are often controversial and are made in value-laden and emotionally charged circumstances. The decision-making context is not only determined by the factual basis provided by the experts, but also by stakeholder pressure groups, extensive media coverage and the value systems of the experts themselves. Value judgements are often embedded in the technical assessments much more than usually appreciated. Risk assessment gives good opportunities to analyse and discuss these problems. It attracts great attention in modern society and requires contributions from a intricate mixture of technical risk assessment, sociology, ethics and political science. This complexity leads to high demands on transparency in order to arrive at high quality decisions, as well as requirements on public insight and participation. This symposium addressed the role of experts, media and and regulators in complex decisions, as well as procedures that can enhance transparency. Special focus was given to biotechnology and nuclear waste management. The problems of risk communication in these areas such as a high degree of complexity, fragmentation in debates, mixing facts and values, mistrust in experts, etc are shared with many other fields. The proceedings comprise 63 contributions, 50 of which have been separately indexed.
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VALDOR 2003. Values in Decisions on Risk. Proceedings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andersson, Kjell
2003-10-01
Many decisions that may have an impact on human health and the environment are often controversial and are made in value-laden and emotionally charged circumstances. The decision-making context is not only determined by the factual basis provided by the experts, but also by stakeholder pressure groups, extensive media coverage and the value systems of the experts themselves. Value judgements are often embedded in the technical assessments much more than usually appreciated. Risk assessment gives good opportunities to analyse and discuss these problems. It attracts great attention in modern society and requires contributions from a intricate mixture of technical risk assessment, sociology, ethics and political science. This complexity leads to high demands on transparency in order to arrive at high quality decisions, as well as requirements on public insight and participation. This symposium addressed the role of experts, media and and regulators in complex decisions, as well as procedures that can enhance transparency. Special focus was given to biotechnology and nuclear waste management. The problems of risk communication in these areas such as a high degree of complexity, fragmentation in debates, mixing facts and values, mistrust in experts, etc are shared with many other fields. The proceedings comprise 63 contributions, 50 of which have been separately indexed
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Ethical decision-making in forensic psychology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Swanepoel
2010-07-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to develop a comprehensive process for identifying and addressing primarily ethical issues related to the psychology profession in South Africa. In fulfilling this purpose, research was conducted of relevant ethical and to a lesser extent, legal aspects pertaining to the psychology profession. In an attempt to prevent unprofessional conduct claims against psychologists from succeeding and to alert psychologists to the concurrent ethical problems that may lead to malpractice suits, this article offers material on some important issues – in the context of forensic psychology – such as ethical decision-making and principles, professional ethics, the regulation of psychology as a profession, the Ethical Code of Professional Conduct to which a psychologist should adhere, ethical aspects and issues pertaining to forensic psychology in general, some ethical issues pertaining to child forensic psychology, summary guidelines for ethical decision-making and some steps to follow to ensure sound ethical decisionmaking.
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Mental Depreciation and Marginal Decision Making
Heath; Fennema
1996-11-01
We propose that individuals practice "mental depreciation," that is, they implicitly spread the fixed costs of their expenses over time or use. Two studies explore how people spread fixed costs on durable goods. A third study shows that depreciation can lead to two distinct errors in marginal decisions: First, people sometimes invest too much effort to get their money's worth from an expense (e.g., they may use a product a lot to spread the fixed expense across more uses). Second, people sometimes invest too little effort to get their money's worth: When people add a portion of the fixed cost to the current costs, their perceived marginal (i.e., incremental) costs exceed their true marginal costs. In response, they may stop investing because their perceived costs surpass the marginal benefits they are receiving. The latter effect is supported by two field studies that explore real board plan decisions by university students.
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Influence of uncertainty on framed decision-making with moral dilemma.
Merlhiot, Gaëtan; Mermillod, Martial; Le Pennec, Jean-Luc; Dutheil, Frédéric; Mondillon, Laurie
2018-01-01
In cases of impending natural disasters, most events are uncertain and emotionally relevant, both critical factors for decision-making. Moreover, for exposed individuals, the sensitivity to the framing of the consequences (gain or loss) and the moral judgments they have to perform (e.g., evacuate or help an injured person) constitute two central effects that have never been examined in the same context of decision-making. In a framed decision-making task with moral dilemma, we investigated whether uncertainty (i.e., unpredictably of events) and a threatening context would influence the framing effect (actions framed in loss are avoided in comparison to the ones framed in gain) and the personal intention effect (unintentional actions are more morally acceptable in comparison to intentional actions) on the perceived moral acceptability of taking action. Considering the impact of uncertainty and fear on the processes underlying these effects, we assumed that these emotions would lead to the negation of the two effects. Our results indicate that the exposure to uncertain events leads to the negation of the framing effect, but does not influence the moral acceptability and the effect of personal intention. We discuss our results in the light of dual-process models (i.e. systematic vs. heuristic), appraisal theories, and neurocognitive aspects. These elements highlight the importance of providing solutions to cope with uncertainty, both for scientists and local populations exposed to natural hazards.
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Nonword Repetition Priming in Lexical Decision Reverses as a Function of Study Task and Speed Stress
Zeelenberg, Rene; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Shiffrin, Richard M.
2004-01-01
The authors argue that nonword repetition priming in lexical decision is the net result of 2 opposing processes. First, repeating nonwords in the lexical decision task results in the storage of a memory trace containing the interpretation that the letter string is a nonword; retrieval of this trace leads to an increase in performance for repeated…
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2013-01-01
Background Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients’ risk perception and leads to better informed decision making. This paper summarises current “best practices” in communication of evidence-based numeric outcomes for developers of patient decision aids (PtDAs) and other health communication tools. Method An expert consensus group of fourteen researchers from North America, Europe, and Australasia identified eleven main issues in risk communication. Two experts for each issue wrote a “state of the art” summary of best evidence, drawing on the PtDA, health, psychological, and broader scientific literature. In addition, commonly used terms were defined and a set of guiding principles and key messages derived from the results. Results The eleven key components of risk communication were: 1) Presenting the chance an event will occur; 2) Presenting changes in numeric outcomes; 3) Outcome estimates for test and screening decisions; 4) Numeric estimates in context and with evaluative labels; 5) Conveying uncertainty; 6) Visual formats; 7) Tailoring estimates; 8) Formats for understanding outcomes over time; 9) Narrative methods for conveying the chance of an event; 10) Important skills for understanding numerical estimates; and 11) Interactive web-based formats. Guiding principles from the evidence summaries advise that risk communication formats should reflect the task required of the user, should always define a relevant reference class (i.e., denominator) over time, should aim to use a consistent format throughout documents, should avoid “1 in x” formats and variable denominators, consider the magnitude of numbers used and the possibility of format bias, and should take into account the numeracy and graph literacy of the audience. Conclusion A substantial and
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[Clinical decision making and critical thinking in the nursing diagnostic process].
Müller-Staub, Maria
2006-10-01
The daily routine requires complex thinking processes of nurses, but clinical decision making and critical thinking are underestimated in nursing. A great demand for educational measures in clinical judgement related with the diagnostic process was found in nurses. The German literature hardly describes nursing diagnoses as clinical judgements about human reactions on health problems / life processes. Critical thinking is described as an intellectual, disciplined process of active conceptualisation, application and synthesis of information. It is gained through observation, experience, reflection and communication and leads thinking and action. Critical thinking influences the aspects of clinical decision making a) diagnostic judgement, b) therapeutic reasoning and c) ethical decision making. Human reactions are complex processes and in their course, human behavior is interpreted in the focus of health. Therefore, more attention should be given to the nursing diagnostic process. This article presents the theoretical framework of the paper "Clinical decision making: Fostering critical thinking in the nursing diagnostic process through case studies".
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Changing foreign policy: the Obama Administration’s decision to oust Mubarak
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maria do Céu Pinto Arena
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract This paper analyses the decision of the Obama administration to redirect its foreign policy towards Egypt in the wake of the Arab Spring. It attempts to highlight the issue of how governments deal with decision-making at times of crisis, and under which circumstances they take critical decisions that lead to major shifts in their foreign policy track record. It focuses on the process that led to a reassessment of US (United States foreign policy, shifting from decades of support to the autocratic regime of Hosni Mubarak, towards backing his ouster. Specifically, the paper attempts to assess to what extent the decision to withdraw US support from a longstanding state-leader and ally in the Middle East can be seen as a foreign policy change (FPC. A relevant research question this paper pursues is: how can the withdrawal of US support to a regime considered as an ally be considered, in itself, as a radical FPC?
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amir Lisa H
2010-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Many breastfeeding women seek medical care from general practitioners (GPs for various health problems and GPs may consider prescribing medicines in these consultations. Prescribing medicines to a breastfeeding mother may lead to untimely cessation of breastfeeding or a breastfeeding mother may be denied medicines due to the possible risk to her infant, both of which may lead to unwanted consequences. Information on factors governing GPs' decision-making and their views in such situations is limited. Methods GPs providing shared maternity care at the Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne were surveyed using an anonymous postal survey to determine their knowledge, attitudes and practices on medicines and breastfeeding, in 2007/2008 (n = 640. Content analysis of their response to a question concerning decision-making about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman was conducted. A thematic network was constructed with basic, organising and global themes. Results 335 (52% GPs responded to the survey, and 253 (76% provided information on the last time they had to decide about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman. Conditions reported were mastitis (24%, other infections (24% and depressive disorders (21%. The global theme that emerged was "complexity of managing risk in prescribing for breastfeeding women". The organising themes were: certainty around decision-making; uncertainty around decision-making; need for drug information to be available, consistent and reliable; joint decision-making; the vulnerable "third party" and infant feeding decision. Decision-making is a spectrum from a straight forward decision, such as treatment of mastitis, to a complicated one requiring multiple inputs and consideration. GPs use more information seeking and collaboration in decision-making when they perceive the problem to be more complex, for example, in postnatal depression. Conclusion GPs feel that prescribing medicines for
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Minimization of decision tree depth for multi-label decision tables
Azad, Mohammad
2014-10-01
In this paper, we consider multi-label decision tables that have a set of decisions attached to each row. Our goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions for each row by using decision tree as our tool. Considering our target to minimize the depth of the decision tree, we devised various kinds of greedy algorithms as well as dynamic programming algorithm. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of depth of decision trees.
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Minimization of decision tree depth for multi-label decision tables
Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail
2014-01-01
In this paper, we consider multi-label decision tables that have a set of decisions attached to each row. Our goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions for each row by using decision tree as our tool. Considering our target to minimize the depth of the decision tree, we devised various kinds of greedy algorithms as well as dynamic programming algorithm. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of depth of decision trees.
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Qaradaghi, Mohammed
Complexity of the capital intensive oil and gas portfolio investments is continuously growing. It is manifested in the constant increase in the type, number and degree of risks and uncertainties, which consequently lead to more challenging decision making problems. A typical complex decision making problem in petroleum exploration and production (E&P) is the selection and prioritization of oilfields/projects in a portfolio investment. Prioritizing oilfields maybe required for different purposes, including the achievement of a targeted production and allocation of limited available development resources. These resources cannot be distributed evenly nor can they be allocated based on the oilfield size or production capacity alone since various other factors need to be considered simultaneously. These factors may include subsurface complexity, size of reservoir, plateau production and needed infrastructure in addition to other issues of strategic concern, such as socio-economic, environmental and fiscal policies, particularly when the decision making involves governments or national oil companies. Therefore, it would be imperative to employ decision aiding tools that not only address these factors, but also incorporate the decision makers' preferences clearly and accurately. However, the tools commonly used in project portfolio selection and optimization, including intuitive approaches, vary in their focus and strength in addressing the different criteria involved in such decision problems. They are also disadvantaged by a number of drawbacks, which may include lacking the capacity to address multiple and interrelated criteria, uncertainty and risk, project relationship with regard to value contribution and optimum resource utilization, non-monetary attributes, decision maker's knowledge and expertise, in addition to varying levels of ease of use and other practical and theoretical drawbacks. These drawbacks have motivated researchers to investigate other tools and
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Heerkens, H.; Köster, Ch.; Ulijn, J.M.
2010-01-01
We investigate whether cultural differences between Dutch and German individual actors lead to different ways of assessing the importance of decision attributes (which may or may not lead to different attribute weights). During think-aloud sessions, German and Dutch students performed an importance
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Heerkens, Johannes M.G.; Koster, Christoph; Ulijn, Jan
2010-01-01
We investigate whether cultural differences between Dutch and German individual actors lead to different ways of assessing the importance of decision attributes (which may or may not lead to different attribute weights). During think-aloud sessions, German and Dutch students performed an importance
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When concretized emotion-belief complexes derail decision-making capacity.
Halpern, Jodi
2012-02-01
There is an important gap in philosophical, clinical and bioethical conceptions of decision-making capacity. These fields recognize that when traumatic life circumstances occur, people not only feel afraid and demoralized, but may develop catastrophic thinking and other beliefs that can lead to poor judgment. Yet there has been no articulation of the ways in which such beliefs may actually derail decision-making capacity. In particular, certain emotionally grounded beliefs are systematically unresponsive to evidence, and this can block the ability to deliberate about alternatives. People who meet medico-legal criteria for decision-making capacity can react to health and personal crises with such capacity-derailing reactions. One aspect of this is that a person who is otherwise cognitively intact may be unable to appreciate her own future quality of life while in this complex state of mind. This raises troubling ethical challenges. We cannot rely on the current standard assessment of cognition to determine decisional rights in medical and other settings. We need to understand better how emotionally grounded beliefs interfere with decision-making capacity, in order to identify when caregivers have an obligation to intervene. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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The adaptive use of recognition in group decision making.
Kämmer, Juliane E; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Reimer, Torsten; Schermuly, Carsten C
2014-06-01
Applying the framework of ecological rationality, the authors studied the adaptivity of group decision making. In detail, they investigated whether groups apply decision strategies conditional on their composition in terms of task-relevant features. The authors focused on the recognition heuristic, so the task-relevant features were the validity of the group members' recognition and knowledge, which influenced the potential performance of group strategies. Forty-three three-member groups performed an inference task in which they had to infer which of two German companies had the higher market capitalization. Results based on the choice data support the hypothesis that groups adaptively apply the strategy that leads to the highest theoretically achievable performance. Time constraints had no effect on strategy use but did have an effect on the proportions of different types of arguments. Possible mechanisms underlying the adaptive use of recognition in group decision making are discussed. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
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EU policy objectives and energy investment decisions
Alario, Juan
2007-01-01
EU energy policies have changed focus in the last few years with a view to substantially reducing energy import dependency and greenhouse gas emissions. The EU Commission has played a leading role in defining the new orientations. The implementation of the EU policy objectives approved by the Council of March 2007 will require a substantial expansion of energy investments. However, the degree of uncertainty affecting investment decisions remains high, notably in relation to the pricing of CO2...
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Data-Based Decision Making at the Policy, Research, and Practice Levels
Schildkamp, Kim; Ebbeler, J.
2015-01-01
Data-based decision making (DBDM) can lead to school improvement. However, schools struggle with the implementation of DBDM. In this symposium, we will discuss research and the implementation of DBDM at the national and regional policy level and the classroom level. We will discuss policy issues
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Decision aids for people facing health treatment or screening decisions.
Stacey, Dawn; Légaré, France; Col, Nananda F; Bennett, Carol L; Barry, Michael J; Eden, Karen B; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Llewellyn-Thomas, Hilary; Lyddiatt, Anne; Thomson, Richard; Trevena, Lyndal; Wu, Julie H C
2014-01-28
Decision aids are intended to help people participate in decisions that involve weighing the benefits and harms of treatment options often with scientific uncertainty. To assess the effects of decision aids for people facing treatment or screening decisions. For this update, we searched from 2009 to June 2012 in MEDLINE; CENTRAL; EMBASE; PsycINFO; and grey literature. Cumulatively, we have searched each database since its start date including CINAHL (to September 2008). We included published randomized controlled trials of decision aids, which are interventions designed to support patients' decision making by making explicit the decision, providing information about treatment or screening options and their associated outcomes, compared to usual care and/or alternative interventions. We excluded studies of participants making hypothetical decisions. Two review authors independently screened citations for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. The primary outcomes, based on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS), were:A) 'choice made' attributes;B) 'decision-making process' attributes.Secondary outcomes were behavioral, health, and health-system effects. We pooled results using mean differences (MD) and relative risks (RR), applying a random-effects model. This update includes 33 new studies for a total of 115 studies involving 34,444 participants. For risk of bias, selective outcome reporting and blinding of participants and personnel were mostly rated as unclear due to inadequate reporting. Based on 7 items, 8 of 115 studies had high risk of bias for 1 or 2 items each.Of 115 included studies, 88 (76.5%) used at least one of the IPDAS effectiveness criteria: A) 'choice made' attributes criteria: knowledge scores (76 studies); accurate risk perceptions (25 studies); and informed value-based choice (20 studies); and B) 'decision-making process' attributes criteria: feeling informed (34 studies) and feeling clear about values (29
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Decisions at hand: a decision support system on handhelds.
Zupan, B; Porenta, A; Vidmar, G; Aoki, N; Bratko, I; Beck, J R
2001-01-01
One of the applications of clinical information systems is decision support. Although the advantages of utilizing such aids have never been theoretically disputed, they have been rarely used in practice. The factor that probably often limits the utility of clinical decision support systems is the need for computing power at the very site of decision making--at the place where the patient is interviewed, in discussion rooms, etc. The paper reports on a possible solution to this problem. A decision-support shell LogReg is presented, which runs on a handheld computer. A general schema for handheld-based decision support is also proposed, where decision models are developed on personal computers/workstations, encoded in XML and then transferred to handhelds, where the models are used within a decision support shell. A use case where LogReg has been applied to clinical outcome prediction in crush injury is presented.
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Is expected utility theory normative for medical decision making?
Cohen, B J
1996-01-01
Expected utility theory is felt by its proponents to be a normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. The theory starts with some simple axioms that are held to be rules that any rational person would follow. It can be shown that if one adheres to these axioms, a numerical quantity, generally referred to as utility, can be assigned to each possible outcome, with the preferred course of action being that which has the highest expected utility. One of these axioms, the independence principle, is controversial, and is frequently violated in experimental situations. Proponents of the theory hold that these violations are irrational. The independence principle is simply an axiom dictating consistency among preferences, in that it dictates that a rational agent should hold a specified preference given another stated preference. When applied to preferences between lotteries, the independence principle can be demonstrated to be a rule that is followed only when preferences are formed in a particular way. The logic of expected utility theory is that this demonstration proves that preferences should be formed in this way. An alternative interpretation is that this demonstrates that the independence principle is not a valid general rule of consistency, but in particular, is a rule that must be followed if one is to consistently apply the decision rule "choose the lottery that has the highest expected utility." This decision rule must be justified on its own terms as a valid rule of rationality by demonstration that violation would lead to decisions that conflict with the decision maker's goals. This rule does not appear to be suitable for medical decisions because often these are one-time decisions in which expectation, a long-run property of a random variable, would not seem to be applicable. This is particularly true for those decisions involving a non-trivial risk of death.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Annesofie L.; Wind, Gitte; Langdahl, Bente Lomholt
2018-01-01
-based knowledge and personal experiences and preferences, respectively, leading to a two-way exchange of information and deliberation about recommendations. Though teachers and patients explored the implications of the decisions and shared their preferences, teachers stressed that the patients ultimately had......Patients with chronic diseases like osteoporosis constantly have to make decisions related to their disease. Multifaceted osteoporosis group education (GE) may support patients’ decision-making. This study investigated multifaceted osteoporosis GE focusing on the impact of GE on patients’ decision....... Results. Attending GE had an impact on the patients’ decision-making in all educational themes. Patients decided on new ways to manage osteoporosis and made decisions regarding bone health and how to implement a lifestyle ensuring bone health. During GE, teachers and patients shared evidence...
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Information and Intertemporal Choices in Multi-Agent Decision Problems
Mariagrazia Olivieri; Massimo Squillante; Viviana Ventre
2016-01-01
Psychological evidences of impulsivity and false consensus effect lead results far from rationality. It is shown that impulsivitymodifies the discount function of each individual, and false consensus effect increases the degree of consensus in a multi-agent decision problem. Analyzing them together we note that in strategic interactions these two human factors involve choices which change equilibriums expected by rational individuals.
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Corporate Choice of Banks: Decision Factors, Decision Maker, and Decision Process – First Evidence
Ongena, S.; Tumer Alkan, G.; Vermeer, B.
2011-01-01
In this paper, we investigate how firms choose their banks. We focus on the role played by the decision factors, the decision maker and the decision process in determining firm-bank relationships. We have access to a unique survey that was run by a major bank in the Czech Republic. We find that
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Face to Face Leading a Full Life in Two Worlds – Arts and Science!
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
IAS Admin
guided them in making the career choice to be a scientist. Leading a Full Life ... think that may have been an attempt to avoid a decision. ... KLS: You have had several collaborators worldwide, and have been a source of motivation for a large ...
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Binmore, Ken
2008-01-01
It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,
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Bullens, L.; van Harreveld, F.; Förster, J.; van der Pligt, J.
2013-01-01
People generally say they prefer to have the opportunity to revise decisions at a later point in time. Research has shown, however, that reversible decision-making leads to lower as opposed to higher levels of post-choice satisfaction (Gilbert & Ebert, 2002). In three studies we aimed to gain
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pier Luigi Baldi
2006-06-01
Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.
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Sensitive Judges – How to Resolve the Tangle of Legal Decision-Making and Emotion?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jurriën Hamer
2012-01-01
Full Text Available According to traditional legal thought, emotions should have no influence on legal decision-making. The general assumption is that emotions interfere with clear rational thinking, and cause decisions to be biased and imbalanced. However, in modern philosophical thought, a different thesis has been put forward. Contrary to being irrational occurrences, emotions are said to actually contain important cognitive content. More precisely, our emotions reflect important evaluative judgments we have about our environment, which usually inform us in making decisions. The question asked in this paper is what the consequences are of accepting such an account of emotions for the legal decision-making process. Does this new understanding of emotions necessitate rethinking the role traditionally assigned to emotions? Focusing on judges, it is argued that emotions are of value to the decision-making process, and that the influence of emotions does not automatically lead to decisions being biased. It is concluded that like distanced rational thought, the emotions involved offer a uniquely important aid to make correct and just decisions.
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Kaune, Alexander; López, Patricia; Werner, Micha; de Fraiture, Charlotte
2017-04-01
Hydrological information on water availability and demand is vital for sound water allocation decisions in irrigation districts, particularly in times of water scarcity. However, sub-optimal water allocation decisions are often taken with incomplete hydrological information, which may lead to agricultural production loss. In this study we evaluate the benefit of additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data in supporting decisions in irrigation districts. Current water allocation decisions were emulated through heuristic operational rules for water scarce and water abundant conditions in the selected irrigation districts. The Dynamic Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework was forced with precipitation datasets from interpolated ground measurements, remote sensing and reanalysis data, to determine the water availability for irrigation. Irrigation demands were estimated based on estimates of potential evapotranspiration and coefficient for crops grown, adjusted with the interpolated precipitation data. Decisions made using both current and additional hydrological information were evaluated through the rate at which sub-optimal decisions were made. The decisions made using an amended set of decision rules that benefit from additional information on demand in the districts were also evaluated. Results show that sub-optimal decisions can be reduced in the planning phase through improved estimates of water availability. Where there are reliable observations of water availability through gauging stations, the benefit of the improved precipitation data is found in the improved estimates of demand, equally leading to a reduction of sub-optimal decisions.
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Screening children for elevated blood lead - Learnings from the literature
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boreland, Frances [Broken Hill Centre for Remote Health Research, Broken Hill University Department of Rural Health, University of Sydney, Corrindah Court, PO Box 457, Broken Hill, NSW 2880 (Australia)], E-mail: fboreland@gwahs.health.nsw.gov.au; Lyle, David [Broken Hill Centre for Remote Health Research, Broken Hill University Department of Rural Health, University of Sydney, Corrindah Court, PO Box 457, Broken Hill, NSW 2880 (Australia)], E-mail: dlyle@gwahs.health.nsw.gov.au
2008-02-01
Introduction: Although it is important that children at risk of developing elevated blood lead receive regular screening, attendance at screening programs is variable. A literature review was undertaken to better understand the factors that affect carers' decisions about whether or not to take their children for blood lead screening. Method: Electronic databases (Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Psychinfo) were searched to identify relevant publications, supported by reviewing reference lists of identified articles and searching with internet-based search engines. Results: Thirty-four published studies dealing with blood lead screening rates were identified, of which only seven papers focused specifically on parent's attitudes to blood lead screening. The barriers to and enablers of screening for elevated blood lead levels appear to be similar to those identified for other screening programs. Discussion: It is recommended that attendance at screening be routinely monitored, and that where participation is suboptimal further research be undertaken, in close co-operation with affected communities or sub-groups, to determine how best to encourage screening and to protect children from lead. It is important to minimize stigma and to ensure, as far as possible, that practical barriers such as lack of transport do not restrict access to screening programs.
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'My kidneys, my choice, decision aid': supporting shared decision making.
Fortnum, Debbie; Smolonogov, Tatiana; Walker, Rachael; Kairaitis, Luke; Pugh, Debbie
2015-06-01
For patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are progressing to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) a decision of whether to undertake dialysis or conservative care is a critical component of the patient journey. Shared decision making for complex decisions such as this could be enhanced by a decision aid, a practice which is well utilised in other disciplines but limited for nephrology. A multidisciplinary team in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) utilised current decision-making theory and best practice to develop the 'My Kidneys, My Choice', a decision aid for the treatment of kidney disease. A patient-centred, five-sectioned tool is now complete and freely available to all ANZ units to support the ESKD education and shared decision-making process. Distribution and education have occurred across ANZ and evaluation of the decision aid in practice is in the first phase. Development of a new tool such as an ESKD decision aid requires vision, multidisciplinary input and ongoing implementation resources. This tool is being integrated into ANZ, ESKD education practice and is promoting the philosophy of shared decision making. © 2014 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1985-06-01
The Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Act of 1980 assigns to the states the responsibility for disposal of the low-level radioactive waste generated within their boundaries. It also provides for regional compacts among states to address their needs on a broader basis and permits restriction of the use of regional disposal facilities after January 1, 1986, to generators of low-level waste within the region. Each state, either individually or as a member of a compact, must therefore consider the establishment of a low-level radioactive waste disposal facility within its borders. The states of Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Oklahoma adopted the Central Interstate Low-Level Waste Compact (CILLWC) and legislation was submitted to Congress for consent in June of 1983 legislation is being reintroduced in the 99th Congress. In August of 1984, the CILLWC selected and contracted Dames and Moore to conduct a Phase I-Site Suitability Screening Study for a low-level radioactive waste disposal facility in the five-state region. This report presents the results of the Phase I Screening Study. Dames and Moore reported to the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) of the CILLWC which provided guidance and comment on work progress and direction
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Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts' Decision Making.
Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme
2014-09-01
Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design.
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Analyzing Decision Logs to Understand Decision Making in Serious Crime Investigations.
Dando, Coral J; Ormerod, Thomas C
2017-12-01
Objective To study decision making by detectives when investigating serious crime through the examination of decision logs to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection. Background Decision logs are used to record and justify decisions made during serious crime investigations. The complexity of investigative decision making is well documented, as are the errors associated with miscarriages of justice and inquests. The use of decision logs has not been the subject of an empirical investigation, yet they offer an important window into the nature of investigative decision making in dynamic, time-critical environments. Method A sample of decision logs from British police forces was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection by police detectives. Results Analyses revealed diversity in documentation of decisions that did not correlate with case type and identified significant limitations of the decision log approach to supporting investigative decision making. Differences emerged between experienced and less experienced officers' decision log records in exploration of alternative hypotheses, generation of hypotheses, and sources of evidential inquiry opened over phase of investigation. Conclusion The practical use of decision logs is highly constrained by their format and context of use. Despite this, decision log records suggest that experienced detectives display strategic decision making to avoid confirmation and satisficing, which affect less experienced detectives. Application Potential applications of this research include both training in case documentation and the development of new decision log media that encourage detectives, irrespective of experience, to generate multiple hypotheses and optimize the timely selection of evidence to test them.
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Altered communicative decisions following ventromedial prefrontal lesions.
Stolk, Arjen; D'Imperio, Daniela; di Pellegrino, Giuseppe; Toni, Ivan
2015-06-01
Damage to the human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) leads to profound changes in everyday social interactions [1, 2]. Yet, in the lab, vmPFC patients show surprising proficiency in reasoning about other agents [3-8]. These conflicting observations suggest that what vmPFC patients lack in everyday social interactions might be the ability to guide their decisions with knowledge about a social partner [9-13], despite preserved access to that knowledge [2, 14]. Quantification of socially relevant decisions during live interaction with different partners offers the possibility of testing this hypothesis. Eight patients with vmPFC damage, eight patients with brain damage elsewhere, and 15 healthy participants were asked to communicate non-verbally with two different addressees, an adult or a child, in an experimentally controlled interactive setting [15, 16]. In reality, a confederate blindly performed the role of both adult and child addressee, with matched performance and response times, such that the two addressees differed only in terms of the communicator's beliefs. Patients with vmPFC damage were able-and motivated-to generate communicatively effective behaviors. However, unlike patient and healthy controls, vmPFC patients failed to adjust their communicative decisions to the presumed abilities of their addressee. These findings indicate that the human vmPFC is necessarily involved in social interactions, insofar as those interactions need to be tailored toward knowledge about a social partner. In this perspective, the known contribution of this region to disparate domains like value-based decision-making [17-19], schema-based memory-processing [20-22], and person-specific mentalizing [11-13] might be instances of decisions based on contingently updated conceptual knowledge. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Optimization of decision rule complexity for decision tables with many-valued decisions
Azad, Mohammad
2013-10-01
We describe new heuristics to construct decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions from the point of view of length and coverage which are enough good. We use statistical test to find leaders among the heuristics. After that, we compare our results with optimal result obtained by dynamic programming algorithms. The average percentage of relative difference between length (coverage) of constructed and optimal rules is at most 6.89% (15.89%, respectively) for leaders which seems to be a promising result. © 2013 IEEE.
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The Impact of Celebrity Endorsement to Youth Consumer Purchase Decision on Adidas Apparel Product
Tielung, Maria V. J.; Lombo, Victor Eko Prasetyo
2014-01-01
Celebrity endorsements are commonly used strategies for promoting various types of products, services or brands. The main purpose of using celebrity endorser is to influence consumer behaviour, especially purchase intention that will lead to consumer purchase decision, which is directly linked to the revenue of the company. This research is conduct in Manado, North Sulawesi. The objectives of this research are to know the influence of celebrity endorsement to consumers purchase decision of ...
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Jelihovschi, Ana P. G.; Cardoso, Ricardo L.; Linhares, Alexandre
2018-01-01
Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve probl...
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rolstadås, Asbjørn; Pinto, Jeffrey K.; Falster, Peter
2015-01-01
To add value to project performance and help obtain project success, a new framework for decision making in projects is defined. It introduces the project decision chain inspired by the supply chain thinking in the manufacturing sector and uses three types of decisions: authorization, selection......, and plan decision. A primitive decision element is defined where all the three decision types can be accommodated. Each task in the primitive element can in itself contain subtasks that in turn will comprise new primitive elements. The primitive elements are nested together in a project decision chain....
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Effects of category-specific costs on neural systems for perceptual decision-making
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fleming, Stephen M; Whiteley, Louise Emma; Hulme, Oliver James
2010-01-01
Perceptual judgments are often biased by prospective losses, leading to changes in decision criteria. Little is known about how and where sensory evidence and cost information interact in the brain to influence perceptual categorization. Here we show that prospective losses systematically bias...... functions enact a particular task set that is communicated to visual regions. Across subjects, greater shifts in decision criteria were associated with greater activation of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Our results support a hypothesis that costs bias an intermediate representation between...... perception and action, expressed via general effects on frontal cortex, and selective effects on extrastriate cortex. These findings indicate that asymmetric costs may affect a neural implementation of perceptual decision making in a similar manner to changes in category expectation, constituting a step...
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Gaps in tools assessing the energy implications of renovation versus rebuilding decisions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Goldstein, Benjamin Paul; Herbøl, Mads; Meza, Maria Josefina Figueroa
2013-01-01
to evaluate project level energy-related decisions than at larger scales. Information gaps identified within assessment tools lead to uncertainty for decision makers about which option improves energy efficiency. In the case of a number of large-scale EU building renovating/renewing projects these tools have......The state of building stocks changes over time. Owners and municipalities face the choice to renovate or rebuild buildings to improve energy efficiency. This review addresses how current sustainability assessment tools support these decisions. It finds that advanced tools are better tailored...... been scarcely used or merely suggested during planning. Recent advances in sustainability assessment tools can begin to close some of the existing knowledge gaps, while incentives and stricter legislation may improve their usage rates....
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Construction of α-decision trees for tables with many-valued decisions
Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata
2011-01-01
The paper is devoted to the study of greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision trees (α-decision trees). This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bound on the number of algorithm steps, and bound on the algorithm accuracy relative to the depth of decision trees. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.