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Sample records for death rates declined

  1. Report to the nation finds continuing declines in cancer death rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Death rates from all cancers combined for men, women, and children continued to decline in the United States between 2004 and 2008, according to the Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975-2008. The overall rate of new cancer diagnoses,

  2. Childhood death rates declined in Sweden from 2000 to 2014 but deaths from external causes were not always investigated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otterman, Gabriel; Lahne, Klara; Arkema, Elizabeth V; Lucas, Steven; Janson, Staffan; Hellström-Westas, Lena

    2018-03-08

    Countries that conduct systematic child death reviews report a high proportion of modifiable characteristics among deaths from external causes, and this study examined the trends in Sweden. We analysed individual-level data on external, ill-defined and unknown causes from the Swedish cause of death register from 2000 to 2014, and mortality rates were estimated for children under the age of one and for those aged 1-14 and 15-17 years. Child deaths from all causes were 7914, and 2006 (25%) were from external, ill-defined and unknown causes: 610 (30%) were infants, 692 (34%) were 1-14 and 704 (35%) were 15-17. The annual average was 134 cases (range 99-156) during the study period. Mortality rates from external, ill-defined and unknown causes in children under 18 fell 19%, from 7.4 to 6.0 per 100 000 population. A sizeable number of infant deaths (8.0%) were registered without a death certificate during the study period, but these counts were lower in children aged 1-14 (1.3%) and 15-17 (0.9%). Childhood deaths showed a sustained decline from 2000 to 2014 in Sweden and a quarter were from external, ill-defined or unknown causes. Systematic, interagency death reviews could yield information that could prevent future deaths. ©2018 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Autopsy rates in the Netherlands: 35 years of decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blokker, Britt M; Weustink, Annick C; Hunink, M G Myriam; Oosterhuis, J Wolter

    2017-01-01

    Although the autopsy still is a valuable tool in health statistics, health care quality control, medical education, and biomedical research, autopsy rates have been declining worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine trends of overall, clinical and forensic autopsy rates among adults in the Netherlands over the last four decades, and trends per sex, age (groups), and hospital type. We performed a retrospective study covering 35 years of Dutch national death counts (1977-2011), the number of in-hospital deceased patients, the number of deaths due to external causes, and the proportion of autopsies performed in these populations. The effects of sex, age and hospital category were analysed by linear and logistic regression and differences were evaluated by chi-square tests. Overall autopsy rates declined by 0.3% per calendar year, clinical autopsy rates by 0.7% per calendar year (from 31.4% to 7.7%), and forensic autopsy rates did not decline. Per calendar year the fraction of in-hospital deceased patients decreased by 0.2%. Autopsy rates were highest among men and younger patients; clinical autopsy rates were highest for patients dying in academic hospitals. In the Netherlands clinical autopsy rates have rapidly declined while at the same time the fraction of in-hospital deaths decreased, both contributing to the overall reduced absolute number of autopsies performed. It is important to improve awareness among both clinicians and general practitioners of the significance of the clinical autopsy.

  4. Reducing the Teen Death Rate. KIDS COUNT Indicator Brief

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shore, Rima; Shore, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Life continues to hold considerable risk for adolescents in the United States. In 2006, the teen death rate stood at 64 deaths per 100,000 teens (13,739 teens) (KIDS COUNT Data Center, 2009). Although it has declined by 4 percent since 2000, the rate of teen death in this country remains substantially higher than in many peer nations, based…

  5. Premature death rates diverge in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    An NCI press release on a study that shows premature death rates have declined in the United States among Hispanics, blacks, and Asian/Pacific Islanders but increased among whites and American Indian/Alaska Natives.

  6. Physiology declines prior to death in Drosophila melanogaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahrestani, Parvin; Tran, Xuan; Mueller, Laurence D

    2012-10-01

    For a period of 6-15 days prior to death, the fecundity and virility of Drosophila melanogaster fall significantly below those of same-aged flies that are not near death. It is likely that other aspects of physiology may decline during this period. This study attempts to document changes in two physiological characteristics prior to death: desiccation resistance and time-in-motion. Using individual fecundity estimates and previously described models, it is possible to accurately predict which flies in a population are near death at any given age; these flies are said to be in the "death spiral". In this study of approximately 7,600 females, we used cohort mortality data and individual fecundity estimates to dichotomize each of five replicate populations of same-aged D. melanogaster into "death spiral" and "non-spiral" groups. We then compared these groups for two physiological characteristics that decline during aging. We describe the statistical properties of a new multivariate test statistic that allows us to compare the desiccation resistance and time-in-motion for two populations chosen on the basis of their fecundity. This multivariate representation of the desiccation resistance and time-in-motion of spiral and non-spiral females was shown to be significantly different with the spiral females characterized by lower desiccation resistance and time spent in motion. Our results suggest that D. melanogaster may be used as a model organism to study physiological changes that occur when death is imminent.

  7. Aging and the shape of cognitive change before death: terminal decline or terminal drop?

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Stuart W S; Hultsch, David F; Dixon, Roger A

    2011-05-01

    Relative to typical age-related cognitive decrements, the terms "terminal decline" and "terminal drop" refer to the phenomenon of increased cognitive decline in proximity to death. Given that these terms are not necessarily synonymous, we examined the important theoretical distinction between the two alternative trajectories or shapes of changes they imply. We used 12-year (5-wave) data from the Victoria Longitudinal Study to directly test whether pre-death cognitive decrements follow a terminal decline (generally gradual) or a terminal drop (more abrupt) shape. Pre-death trajectories of cognitive decline for n=265 decedents (Mage = 72.67 years, SD = 6.44) were examined separately for 5 key cognitive constructs (verbal speed, working memory, episodic memory, semantic memory, and crystallized ability). Several classes of linear mixed models evaluated whether cognitive decline increased per additional year closer to death. Findings indicated that the shape of pre-death cognitive change was predominantly characterized by decline that is steeper as compared with typical aging-related change, but still best described as slow and steady decline, especially as compared with precipitous drop. The present findings suggest that terminal decline and terminal drop trajectories may not be mutually exclusive but could rather reflect distinct developmental trajectories within the same individual.

  8. CD4 decline is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death in virally suppressed patients with HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helleberg, Marie; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S; Pedersen, Gitte; Pedersen, Court; Obel, Niels; Gerstoft, Jan

    2013-07-01

    The clinical implications of a considerable CD4 decline despite antiretroviral treatment and viral suppression are unknown. We aimed to test the hypothesis that a major CD4 decline could be a marker of cardiovascular disease or undiagnosed cancer. Patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) were followed in the Danish nationwide, population-based cohort study in the period 1995-2010 with quarterly CD4 measurements. Associations between a CD4 decline of ≥30% and cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death were analyzed using Poisson regression with date of CD4 decline as a time-updated variable. We followed 2584 virally suppressed HIV patients for 13 369 person-years (PY; median observation time, 4.7 years). Fifty-six patients developed CD4 decline (incidence rate, 4.2/1000 PY [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.2-5.4]). CD4 counts dropped from a median of 492 cells/µL to 240 cells/µL. CD8, CD3, and total lymphocyte counts dropped concomitantly. No HIV-related factors, apart from treatment with didanosine, were associated with CD4 decline. The risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death increased markedly ≤6 months after CD4 decline (incidence rate ratio, 11.7 [95% CI, 3.6-37.4] and 13.7 [95% CI, 4.3-43.6], respectively, and mortality rate ratio 4.3 [95% CI, 1.1-17.6]). A major decline in CD4 count is associated with a marked increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death among virally suppressed HIV patients.

  9. The Role of Forest Tent Caterpillar Defoliations and Partial Harvest in the Decline and Death of Sugar Maple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Henrik; Messier, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Background and Aims Natural and anthropogenic disturbances can act as stresses on tree vigour. According to Manion's conceptual model of tree disease, the initial vigour of trees decreases as a result of predisposing factors that render these trees more vulnerable to severe inciting stresses, stresses that can then cause final vigour decline and subsequent tree death. This tree disease model was tested in sugar maple (Acer saccharum) by assessing the roles of natural and anthropogenic disturbances in tree decline and death. Methods Radial growth data from 377 sugar maple trees that had undergone both defoliations by insects and partial harvest were used to estimate longitudinal survival probabilities as a proxy for tree vigour. Radial growth rates and survival probabilities were compared among trees subjected to different levels of above- and below-ground disturbances, between periods of defoliation and harvest, and between live and dead trees. Key Results Manion's tree disease model correctly accounts for vigour decline and tree death in sugar maple; tree growth and vigour were negatively affected by a first defoliation, predisposing these trees to death later during the study period due to a second insect outbreak that initiated a final vigour decline. This decline was accelerated by the partial harvest disturbance in 1993. Even the most severe anthropogenic disturbances from partial harvest did not cause, unlike insect defoliation, any growth or vigour declines in live sugar maple. Conclusions Natural disturbances acted as predisposing and inciting stresses in tree sugar maple decline and death. Anthropogenic disturbances from a partial harvest at worst accelerated a decline in trees that were already weakened by predisposing and inciting stresses (i.e. repeated insect defoliations). Favourable climatic conditions just before and after the partial harvest may have alleviated possible negative effects on growth resulting from harvesting. PMID:18660493

  10. Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Abernethy, Amy P; Holman, Sheila; Ross, William G; Lyerly, H Kim

    2014-01-01

    The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10) using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993-2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population) calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths-with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths-with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only the underlying causes of deaths were used, and when mortality and air-quality data were analyzed on the county level. In each case, the results of sensitivity analyses demonstrated stability. The importance of analysis of pneumonia as an underlying cause of death was also highlighted. Significant associations were observed between decreasing death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and decreases in levels of ambient air pollutants in North Carolina.

  11. Why is the death rate from lung cancer falling in the Russian Federation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shkolnikov, V; McKee, M; Leon, D; Chenet, L

    1999-03-01

    Age standardised death rates (European standard population) from lung cancer in the Russian Federation, have been rising since at least 1965, levelled out in the late 1980s and have subsequently decreased. The reasons for this decline are not apparent. This study seeks to identify the reasons for the decline in mortality from lung cancer in the Russian Federation in the 1990s. Changes in age-specific mortality from lung cancer in the Russian Federation between 1990 are described and age-cohort analysis, based on age-specific death rates for lung cancer is undertaken for the period 1965 to 1995. As other work has shown that any recent deterioration in coding of cause of death has been confined largely to the elderly, this suggests that the trend is not a coding artefact. Age-period-cohort analysis demonstrates the existence of a marked birth cohort effect, with two major peaks corresponding to those born around 1926 and 1938. These groups would have reached their early teens during the second world war and the period immediately after the death of Stalin, respectively. The present downward trend in death rates from lung cancer in the Russian Federation is partly due to a cohort effect and it is expected that this will soon reverse, with a second peak occurring in about 2003.

  12. Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Abernethy, Amy P; Holman, Sheila; Ross, William G; Lyerly, H Kim

    2014-01-01

    Background The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. Materials and methods We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10) using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993–2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population) calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. Results Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths–with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths–with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only the underlying causes of deaths were used, and when mortality and air-quality data were analyzed on the county level. In each case, the results of sensitivity analyses demonstrated stability. The importance of analysis of pneumonia as an underlying cause of death was also highlighted. Conclusion Significant associations were observed between decreasing death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and decreases in levels of ambient air pollutants in North Carolina. PMID:25018627

  13. Declining risk of sudden death in heart failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shen, Li; Jhund, Pardeep S.; Petrie, Mark C.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND The risk of sudden death has changed over time among patients with symptomatic heart failure and reduced ejection fraction with the sequential introduction of medications including angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin-receptor blockers, beta-blockers, and mineralocorti......BACKGROUND The risk of sudden death has changed over time among patients with symptomatic heart failure and reduced ejection fraction with the sequential introduction of medications including angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin-receptor blockers, beta...... cardioverter-defibrillator at the time of trial enrollment were excluded. Weighted multivariable regression was used to examine trends in rates of sudden death over time. Adjusted hazard ratios for sudden death in each trial group were calculated with the use of Cox regression models. The cumulative incidence...... rates of sudden death were assessed at different time points after randomization and according to the length of time between the diagnosis of heart failure and randomization. RESULTS Sudden death was reported in 3583 patients. Such patients were older and were more often male, with an ischemic cause...

  14. CD4 decline is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death in virally suppressed patients with HIV

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helleberg, Marie; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S

    2013-01-01

    immunodeficiency virus (HIV) were followed in the Danish nationwide, population-based cohort study in the period 1995-2010 with quarterly CD4 measurements. Associations between a CD4 decline of ≥30% and cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death were analyzed using Poisson regression with date of CD4 decline...... as a time-updated variable. Results. We followed 2584 virally suppressed HIV patients for 13 369 person-years (PY; median observation time, 4.7 years). Fifty-six patients developed CD4 decline (incidence rate, 4.2/1000 PY [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.2-5.4]). CD4 counts dropped from a median of 492...

  15. Cohorts based on decade of death: no evidence for secular trends favoring later cohorts in cognitive aging and terminal decline in the AHEAD study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hülür, Gizem; Infurna, Frank J; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

    2013-03-01

    Studies of birth-year cohorts examined over the same age range often report secular trends favoring later-born cohorts, who are cognitively fitter and show less steep cognitive declines than earlier-born cohorts. However, there is initial evidence that those advantages of later-born cohorts do not carry into the last years of life, suggesting that pervasive mortality-related processes minimize differences that were apparent earlier in life. Elaborating this work from an alternative perspective on cohort differences, we compared rates of cognitive aging and terminal decline in episodic memory between cohorts based on the year participants had died, earlier (between 1993 and 1999) or later in historical time (between 2000 and 2010). Specifically, we compared trajectories of cognitive decline in 2 death-year cohorts of participants in the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old study that were matched on age at death and education and controlled for a variety of additional covariates. Results revealed little evidence of secular trends favoring later cohorts. To the contrary, the cohort that died in the 2000s showed a less favorable trajectory of age-related memory decline than the cohort that died in the 1990s. In examinations of change in relation to time to death, the cohort dying in the 2000s experienced even steeper terminal declines than the cohort dying in the 1990s. We suggest that secular increases in "manufacturing" survival may exacerbate age- and mortality-related cognitive declines among the oldest old.

  16. Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kravchenko J

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Julia Kravchenko,1 Igor Akushevich,2 Amy P Abernethy,3 Sheila Holman,4 William G Ross Jr,5 H Kim Lyerly1,6 1Department of Surgery, 2Center for Population Health and Aging, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Duke University, Durham, 4Division of Air Quality, North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Raleigh, 5Nicholas School of the Environment, 6Department of Pathology, Duke University Medical Center, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA Background: The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. Materials and methods: We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2, nitrogen dioxide (NO2, carbon monoxide (CO, and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10 using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993–2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. Results: Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths–with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths–with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only

  17. Lung cancer death rates fall, helping drive decrease in overall cancer death rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, covering the period 1975–2010, showed death rates for lung cancer, which accounts for more than one in four cancer deaths, dropping at a faster pace than in previous years.

  18. HSMR : Comparing Death Rates Across UK Hospitals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ben Teeuwen; Thuy Ngo; Frans Nauta

    2011-01-01

    The Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio (HSMR) is a measurement tool that shows hospitals’ death rates. The HSMR compares deaths that occur in hospitals with death ratios that one would normally expect based on patients’ diseases. It is used as a benchmark for adjusted hospital death rates. These

  19. Annual rates of decline in child, maternal, HIV, and tuberculosis mortality across 109 countries of low and middle income from 1990 to 2013: an assessment of the feasibility of post-2015 goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verguet, Stéphane; Norheim, Ole Frithjof; Olson, Zachary D; Yamey, Gavin; Jamison, Dean T

    2014-12-01

    Measuring a country's health performance has focused mostly on estimating levels of mortality. An alternative is to measure rates of decline in mortality, which are more sensitive to changes in health policy than are mortality levels. Historical rates of decline in mortality can also help test the feasibility of future health goals (eg, post-2015). We aimed to assess the annual rates of decline in under-5, maternal, tuberculosis, and HIV mortality over the past two decades for 109 low-income and middle-income countries. For the period 1990-2013, we estimated annual rates of decline in under-5 mortality (deaths per 1000 livebirths), the maternal mortality ratio (deaths per 100 000 livebirths), and tuberculosis and HIV mortality (deaths per 100 000 population per year) using published data from UNICEF and WHO. For every 5-year interval (eg, 1990-95), we defined performance as the size of the annual rate of decline for every mortality indicator. Subsequently, we tested the feasibility of post-2015 goals by estimating the year by which countries would achieve 2030 targets proposed by The Lancet's Commission on Investing in Health (ie, 20 deaths per 1000 for under-5 mortality, 94 deaths per 100 000 for maternal mortality, four deaths per 100 000 for tuberculosis mortality, and eight deaths per 100 000 for HIV mortality) at observed country and aspirational best-performer (90th percentile) rates. From 2005 to 2013, the mean annual rate of decline in under-5 mortality was 4·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·9-4·6), for maternal mortality it was 3·3% (2·5-4·1), for tuberculosis mortality 4·1% (2·8-5·4), and for HIV mortality 2·2% (0·1-4·3); aspirational best-performer rates per year were 7·1% (6·8-7·5), 6·3% (5·5-7·1), 12·8% (11·5-14·1), and 15·3% (13·2-17·4), respectively. The top two country performers were Macedonia and South Africa for under-5 mortality, Belarus and Bulgaria for maternal mortality, Uzbekistan and Macedonia for

  20. Sudden Oak Death in redwood forests: vegetation dynamics in the wake of tanoak decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin Ramage; Kevin O’Hara

    2010-01-01

    Numerous lines of inquiry have concluded that tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) will continue to experience drastic population declines and may even disappear entirely from redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests as a result of the exotic disease sudden oak death (SOD) (Maloney and others 2005, McPherson and others 2005,...

  1. Estimating Benefits of Past, Current, and Future Reductions in Smoking Rates Using a Comprehensive Model With Competing Causes of Death

    OpenAIRE

    van Meijgaard, Jeroen; Fielding, Jonathan E.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Despite years of declining smoking prevalence, tobacco use is still the leading preventable contributor to illness and death in the United States, and the effect of past tobacco-use control efforts has not fully translated into improvements in health outcomes. The objective of this study was to use a life course model with multiple competing causes of death to elucidate the ongoing benefits of tobacco-use control efforts on US death rates. Methods We used a continuous-time life c...

  2. Diversification rates have declined in the Malagasy herpetofauna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scantlebury, Daniel P

    2013-09-07

    The evolutionary origins of Madagascar's biodiversity remain mysterious despite the fact that relative to land area, there is no other place with consistently high levels of species richness and endemism across a range of taxonomic levels. Most efforts to explain diversification on the island have focused on geographical models of speciation, but recent studies have begun to address the island's accumulation of species through time, although with conflicting results. Prevailing hypotheses for diversification on the island involve either constant diversification rates or scenarios where rates decline through time. Using relative-time-calibrated phylogenies for seven endemic vertebrate clades and a model-fitting framework, I find evidence that diversification rates have declined through time on Madagascar. I show that diversification rates have clearly declined throughout the history of each clade, and models invoking diversity-dependent reductions to diversification rates best explain the diversification histories for each clade. These results are consistent with the ecological theory of adaptive radiation, and, coupled with ancillary observations about ecomorphological and life-history evolution, strongly suggest that adaptive radiation was an important formative process for one of the most species-rich regions on the Earth. These results cast the Malagasy biota in a new light and provide macroevolutionary justification for conservation initiatives.

  3. Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates in the Slovak Republic between 1993-2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Psota

    Full Text Available Between the years 1993 and 2008, mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD in the Slovak Republic have decreased by almost one quarter. However, this was a smaller decline than in neighbouring countries. The aim of this modelling study was therefore to quantify the contributions of risk factor changes and the use of evidence-based medical therapies to the CHD mortality decline between 1993 and 2008.We identified, obtained and scrutinised the data required for the model. These data detailed trends in the major population cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes prevalence, body mass index (BMI and physical activity levels, and also the uptake of all standard CHD treatments. The main data sources were official statistics (National Health Information Centre and Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic and national representative studies (AUDIT, SLOVAKS, SLOVASeZ, CINDI, EHES, EHIS. The previously validated IMPACT policy model was then used to combine and integrate these data with effect sizes from published meta-analyses quantifying the effectiveness of specific evidence-based treatments, and population-wide changes in cardiovascular risk factors. Results were expressed as deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs attributable to risk factor changes or treatments. Uncertainties were explored using sensitivity analyses.Between 1993 and 2008 age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Slovak Republic (SR decreased by 23% in men and 26% in women aged 25-74 years. This represented some 1820 fewer CHD deaths in 2008 than expected if mortality rates had not fallen. The IMPACT model explained 91% of this mortality decline. Approximately 50% of the decline was attributable to changes in acute phase and secondary prevention treatments, particularly acute and chronic treatments for heart failure (≈12%, acute coronary syndrome treatments (≈9% and secondary prevention following AMI and revascularisation (≈8

  4. Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates in the Slovak Republic between 1993-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Psota, Marek; Bandosz, Piotr; Gonçalvesová, Eva; Avdičová, Mária; Bucek Pšenková, Mária; Studenčan, Martin; Pekarčíková, Jarmila; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

    2018-01-01

    Between the years 1993 and 2008, mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the Slovak Republic have decreased by almost one quarter. However, this was a smaller decline than in neighbouring countries. The aim of this modelling study was therefore to quantify the contributions of risk factor changes and the use of evidence-based medical therapies to the CHD mortality decline between 1993 and 2008. We identified, obtained and scrutinised the data required for the model. These data detailed trends in the major population cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes prevalence, body mass index (BMI) and physical activity levels), and also the uptake of all standard CHD treatments. The main data sources were official statistics (National Health Information Centre and Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic) and national representative studies (AUDIT, SLOVAKS, SLOVASeZ, CINDI, EHES, EHIS). The previously validated IMPACT policy model was then used to combine and integrate these data with effect sizes from published meta-analyses quantifying the effectiveness of specific evidence-based treatments, and population-wide changes in cardiovascular risk factors. Results were expressed as deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) attributable to risk factor changes or treatments. Uncertainties were explored using sensitivity analyses. Between 1993 and 2008 age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Slovak Republic (SR) decreased by 23% in men and 26% in women aged 25-74 years. This represented some 1820 fewer CHD deaths in 2008 than expected if mortality rates had not fallen. The IMPACT model explained 91% of this mortality decline. Approximately 50% of the decline was attributable to changes in acute phase and secondary prevention treatments, particularly acute and chronic treatments for heart failure (≈12%), acute coronary syndrome treatments (≈9%) and secondary prevention following AMI and revascularisation (≈8%). Changes in CHD

  5. Rate of pulmonary function decline in South African children with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background. Pulmonary function tests (PFTs) objectively measure the extent and progression of cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease. The rate of lung function decline in developing countries has not previously been studied. Aim. To investigate the average annual rates of pulmonary function decline in South African children ...

  6. Gallbladder Cancer Incidence and Death Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Campaigns Initiatives Stay Informed Gallbladder Cancer Incidence and Death Rates Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Quick ... a late stage with a poor outcome, often death. The journal Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention published ...

  7. Loneliness and the rate of motor decline in old age: the rush memory and aging project, a community-based cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold Steven E

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Being alone, as measured by less frequent social interactions, has been reported to be associated with a more rapid rate of motor decline in older persons. We tested the hypothesis that feeling alone is associated with the rate of motor decline in community-dwelling older persons. Methods At baseline, loneliness was assessed with a 5-item scale in 985 persons without dementia participating in the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal community-based cohort study. Annual detailed assessment of 9 measures of muscle strength and 9 motor performances were summarized in a composite measure of global motor function. Results Linear mixed-effects models which controlled for age, sex and education, showed that the level of loneliness at baseline was associated with the rate of motor decline (Estimate, -0.016; S.E. 0.006, p = 0.005. For each 1-point higher level of loneliness at baseline, motor decline was 40% more rapid; this effect was similar to the rate of motor decline observed in an average participant 4 years older at baseline. Furthermore, this amount of motor decline per year was associated with about a 50% increased risk of death. When terms for both feeling alone (loneliness and being alone were considered together in a single model, both were relatively independent predictors of motor decline. The association between loneliness and motor decline persisted even after controlling for depressive symptoms, cognition, physical and cognitive activities, chronic conditions, as well as baseline disability or a history of stroke or Parkinson's disease. Conclusions Among community-dwelling older persons, both feeling alone and being alone are associated with more rapid motor decline, underscoring the importance of psychosocial factors and motor decline in old age.

  8. Infant Mortality Statistics From the 2013 Period Linked Birth/Infant Death Data Set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, T J; MacDorman, Marian F; Thoma, Marie E

    2015-08-06

    This report presents 2013 period infant mortality statistics from the linked birth/infant death data set (linked file) by maternal and infant characteristics. The linked file differs from the mortality file, which is based entirely on death certificate data. Descriptive tabulations of data are presented and interpreted. The U.S. infant mortality rate was 5.96 infant deaths per 1,000 live births in 2013, similar to the rate of 5.98 in 2012. The number of infant deaths was 23,446 in 2013, a decline of 208 infant deaths from 2012. From 2012 to 2013, infant mortality rates were stable for most race and Hispanic origin groups; declines were reported for two Hispanic subgroups: Cuban and Puerto Rican. Since 2005, the most recent high, the U.S. infant mortality rate has declined 13% (from 6.86), with declines in both neonatal and postneonatal mortality overall and for most groups. In 2013, infants born at 37–38 weeks of gestation (early term) had mortality rates that were 63% higher than for full-term (39–40 week) infants. For multiple births, the infant mortality rate was 25.84, 5 times the rate of 5.25 for singleton births. In 2013, 36% of infant deaths were due to preterm-related causes of death, and an additional 15% were due to causes grouped into the sudden unexpected infant death category. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

  9. Cladoceran birth and death rates estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriel, Wilfried; Taylor, B. E.; Kirsch-Prokosch, Susanne

    1987-01-01

    I. Birth and death rates of natural cladoceran populations cannot be measured directly. Estimates of these population parameters must be calculated using methods that make assumptions about the form of population growth. These methods generally assume that the population has a stable age distribution. 2. To assess the effect of variable age distributions, we tested six egg ratio methods for estimating birth and death rates with data from thirty-seven laboratory populations of Daphnia puli...

  10. Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

    2009-09-01

    Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

  11. 40 CFR 73.19 - Certain units with declining SO2 rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Certain units with declining SO2 rates... declining SO2 rates. (a) Eligibility. A unit is eligible for allowance allocations under this section if it... generator with nameplate capacity equal to or greater than 75 MWe; (3) Its 1985 actual SO2 emissions rate...

  12. Gas production and decline rates in the province of Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samson, L.A.

    1999-01-01

    A detailed study was conducted to evaluate the gas production decline rates in Alberta. The study examined the producing gas wells that were place in production between 1990 and 1997. Three major assumptions were used to determine the number of wells necessary to meet future market demand. These were: (1) reserves have been declining at greater rates in the past several years. The current rate of decline is 12 per cent, (2) new reserves added in future will produce at 5.1 E6M3 per year, and (3) the decline rates for new gas wells will be 27 per cent in the first year, 16 per cent in the second year, 12 per cent in the third year and thereafter. With this information, the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board estimates that the annual total deliveries of gas from Alberta in the year 2002 will be 177.4 E9M3 compared to 127 E9M3 in 1997. In order to meet this supply, drilling activity for successful gas wells will have to double the 1997 rate because it is predicted that more than 6400 new wells will be needed per year to meet future demand. 2 refs., 2 tabs., 20 figs

  13. Can deaths in police cells be prevented? Experience from Norway and death rates in other countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aasebø, Willy; Orskaug, Gunnar; Erikssen, Jan

    2016-01-01

    To describe the changes in death rates and causes of deaths in Norwegian police cells during the last 2 decades. To review reports on death rates in police cells that have been published in medical journals and elsewhere, and discuss the difficulties of comparing death rates between countries. Data on deaths in Norwegian police cells were collected retrospectively in 2002 and 2012 for two time periods: 1993-2001 (period 1) and 2003-2012 (period 2). Several databases were searched to find reports on deaths in police cells from as many countries as possible. The death rates in Norwegian police cells reduced significantly from 0.83 deaths per year per million inhabitants (DYM) in period 1 to 0.22 DYM in period 2 (p police cells reduced by about 75% over a period of approximately 10 years. This is probably mainly due to individuals with severe alcohol intoxication no longer being placed in police cells. However, there remain large methodology difficulties in comparing deaths rates between countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  14. The indeterminate rate problem for birth-death processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, Erik A.

    1987-01-01

    A birth-death process is completely determined by its set of rates if and only if this set satisfies a certain condition C, say. If for a set of rates R the condition C is not fulfilled, then the problem arises of characterizing all birth-death processes which have rate set R (the indeterminate rate

  15. All-cause mortality rates and home deaths decreased in children with life-limiting diagnoses in Denmark between 1994 and 2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykke, Camilla; Ekholm, Ola; Schmiegelow, Kjeld

    2018-01-01

    %). The relative proportion of hospital deaths increased, while home deaths decreased. CONCLUSION: All-cause mortality rate decreased markedly, and the relative proportion of hospital deaths increased. The results may reflect more aggressive and effective treatment attempts to save lives, but some terminally ill...... deaths. The decline in infant mortality (26%) primarily reflected fewer deaths due to congenital malformations and chromosomal abnormalities (68%) and perinatal deaths (30%). In children aged one year to 17 years, the substantial decrease (65%) was due to external causes (75%) and neoplasms (57......AIM: Specialised paediatric palliative care has not previously been a priority in Denmark. The aim of this study was to support its development and organisation, by examining why and where children died using official national data for 1994-2014. METHODS: We obtained data on 9462 children who died...

  16. The cause of global amphibian declines: a developmental endocrinologist's perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, T B; Falso, P; Gallipeau, S; Stice, M

    2010-03-15

    Greater than 70% of the world's amphibian species are in decline. We propose that there is probably not a single cause for global amphibian declines and present a three-tiered hierarchical approach that addresses interactions among and between ultimate and proximate factors that contribute to amphibian declines. There are two immediate (proximate) causes of amphibian declines: death and decreased recruitment (reproductive failure). Although much attention has focused on death, few studies have addressed factors that contribute to declines as a result of failed recruitment. Further, a great deal of attention has focused on the role of pathogens in inducing diseases that cause death, but we suggest that pathogen success is profoundly affected by four other ultimate factors: atmospheric change, environmental pollutants, habitat modification and invasive species. Environmental pollutants arise as likely important factors in amphibian declines because they have realized potential to affect recruitment. Further, many studies have documented immunosuppressive effects of pesticides, suggesting a role for environmental contaminants in increased pathogen virulence and disease rates. Increased attention to recruitment and ultimate factors that interact with pathogens is important in addressing this global crisis.

  17. Saving Mothers' Lives: Reviewing maternal deaths to make motherhood safer: 2006-2008. The Eighth Report of the Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the United Kingdom.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cantwell, Roch

    2011-03-01

    In the triennium 2006-2008, 261 women in the UK died directly or indirectly related to pregnancy. The overall maternal mortality rate was 11.39 per 100,000 maternities. Direct deaths decreased from 6.24 per 100,000 maternities in 2003-2005 to 4.67 per 100,000 maternities in 2006–2008 (p = 0.02). This decline is predominantly due to the reduction in deaths from thromboembolism and, to a lesser extent, haemorrhage. For the first time there has been a reduction in the inequalities gap, with a significant decrease in maternal mortality rates among those living in the most deprived areas and those in the lowest socio-economic group. Despite a decline in the overall UK maternal mortality rate, there has been an increase in deaths related to genital tract sepsis, particularly from community acquired Group A streptococcal disease. The mortality rate related to sepsis increased from 0.85 deaths per 100,000 maternities in 2003-2005 to 1.13 deaths in 2006-2008, and sepsis is now the most common cause of Direct maternal death. Cardiac disease is the most common cause of Indirect death; the Indirect maternal mortality rate has not changed significantly since 2003-2005. This Confidential Enquiry identified substandard care in 70% of Direct deaths and 55% of Indirect deaths. Many of the identified avoidable factors remain the same as those identified in previous Enquiries. Recommendations for improving care have been developed and are highlighted in this report. Implementing the Top ten recommendations should be prioritised in order to ensure the overall UK maternal mortality rate continues to decline.

  18. Autopsy rates in the Netherlands: 35 years of decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.M. Blokker (Britt); A.C. Weustink (Annick); M.G.M. Hunink (Myriam); Oosterhuis, J.W. (J. Wolter)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractObjective: Although the autopsy still is a valuable tool in health statistics, health care quality control, medical education, and biomedical research, autopsy rates have been declining worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine trends of overall, clinical and forensic autopsy rates

  19. Terminal decline in well-being: The role of social orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerstorf, Denis; Hoppmann, Christiane A; Löckenhoff, Corinna E; Infurna, Frank J; Schupp, Jürgen; Wagner, Gert G; Ram, Nilam

    2016-03-01

    Well-being development at the end of life is often characterized by steep deteriorations, but individual differences in these terminal declines are substantial and not yet well understood. This study moved beyond typical consideration of health predictors and explored the role of social orientation and engagement. To do so, we used social variables at the behavioral level (self-ratings of social participation) and the motivational level (valuing social and family goals), assessed 2 to 4 years before death. We applied single- and multiphase growth models to up to 27-year annual longitudinal data from 2,910 now deceased participants of the nation-wide German Socio-Economic Panel Study (Mage at death = 74 years; SD = 14; 48% women). Results revealed that leading a socially active life and prioritizing social goals in late life were independently associated with higher late-life well-being, less pronounced late-life decline, and a later onset of terminal decline. Significant interaction effects suggested that the combination of (reduced) social participation and (lowered) social goals magnifies the effects of each other. Findings also indicated that less decline in social participation was associated with less severe rates and a later onset of well-being decline. We found little evidence that valuing family goals is associated with late-life trajectories of well-being. Associations were independent of key correlates of well-being and mortality, including age at death, gender, education, disability, hospital stays, and goals in other life domains. We discuss possible pathways by which maintaining social orientation into late life may help mitigate terminal decline in well-being. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Long-term recurrence and death rates after acute pancreatitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Helle; Tønnesen, Hanne; Tønnesen, Maja Hanne

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare long-term recurrence and death rates after a first episode of acute pancreatitis in patients with and without gallstones. Additionally, it was of interest to find out if there were factors predictive of readmission or death.......The aim of this study was to compare long-term recurrence and death rates after a first episode of acute pancreatitis in patients with and without gallstones. Additionally, it was of interest to find out if there were factors predictive of readmission or death....

  1. Exchange-Driven Growth with Birth Rate Less Than Death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Zhenquan; Ye Gaoxiang; Ke Jianhong

    2005-01-01

    We further study the kinetic behavior of the exchange-driven growth with birth and death for the case of birth rate kernel being less than that of death based on the mean-field theory. The symmetric exchange rate kernel is K(k,j) = K'(k,j) = Ikj υ , and the birth and death rates are proportional to the aggregate's size. The long time asymptotic behavior of the aggregate size distribution a k (t) is found to obey a much unusual scaling law with an exponentially growing scaling function Φ(x) = exp (x).

  2. Death rates for acquired hypothyroidism and thyrotoxicosis in English populations (1979-2010): comparison of underlying cause and all certified causes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldacre, M J; Duncan, M E

    2013-03-01

    Overt hypothyroidism and thyrotoxicosis have widespread systemic effects and are associated with increased mortality. Most death certificates that include them do not have the thyroid disease coded as the underlying cause of death. To describe regional (1979-2010) and national (1995-2010) trends in mortality rates for acquired hypothyroidism and thyrotoxicosis, analysing all certified causes of death (termed 'mentions') and not just the underlying cause. Analysis of death registration data. Analysis of data for the Oxford region (mentions available from 1979) and English national data (mentions available from 1995). The data were grouped in periods defined by different national rules for selecting the underlying cause of death (1979-83, 1984-92, 1993-2000 and 2001-10) and were also analysed as single calendar years. Mentions mortality for acquired hypothyroidism in the Oxford region declined significantly from 1979 to 2010: the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was -2.6% (95% confidence intervals -3.5, -1.8). Most of the decrease occurred during the 1980s. The AAPC in rates for later years in England (1995-2010) was non-significant at 0.2% (-0.7, 1.0). Mortality rates for thyrotoxicosis decreased significantly: the AAPC was -2.8% (-4.1, -1.5) in the Oxford region and -3.8% (-4.7, -3.0) in England. In England, between 2001 and 2010, hypothyroidism or thyrotoxicosis was coded as the underlying cause of death on, respectively, 17 and 24% of death certificates that included them. Mortality rates for hypothyroidism and thyrotoxicosis have fallen substantially. The fall is probably wholly or mainly a result of improved care.

  3. Microbleeds do not affect rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vlies, Annelies E; Goos, Jeroen D C; Barkhof, Frederik; Scheltens, Philip; van der Flier, Wiesje M

    2012-08-21

    To investigate the relationship between brain microbleeds (MBs) and the rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease (AD). In this cohort study, we studied 221 patients with AD with available baseline MRI scans (1.0 or 1.5 T) and at least 2 Mini-Mental State Examinations (MMSE) scores obtained more than 1 year apart from our memory clinic. Mean ± SD follow-up time was 3 ± 1 years, and patients had a median of 4 MMSE scores (range 2-17). We used linear mixed models with sex and age as covariates to investigate whether MBs influenced the rate of cognitive decline. Mean age was 68 ± 9 years, 109 (49%) patients were female, and the baseline MMSE score was 22 ± 4. There were 39 patients (18%) with MBs (median 2, range 1-27) and 182 without. Linear mixed models showed that overall patients declined 2 MMSE points per year. We found no association of the presence of MBs with baseline MMSE or change in MMSE. Adjustment for atrophy, white matter hyperintensities, lacunes, and vascular risk factors did not change the results nor did stratification for MB location, APOE ε4 carriership, or age at onset (≤65 years vs >65 years). Repeating the analyses with number of MBs as predictor rendered similar results. MBs did not influence the rate of cognitive decline in patients with AD. The formerly reported increased risk of mortality in patients with MBs seems not to be attributable to a steeper rate of decline per se but might be due to vascular events, including (hemorrhagic) stroke.

  4. Do Declining Discount Rates lead to Time Inconsistent Economic Advice?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anders Chr.

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses the risk of time inconsistency in economic appraisals related to the use of hyperbolic discounting (declining discount rates) instead of exponential discounting (constant discount rate). Many economists are uneasy about the prospects of potential time inconsistency. The paper...

  5. Decline in Memory, Visuospatial Ability, and Crystalized Cognitive Abilities in Older Adults: Normative Aging or Terminal Decline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bendayan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to explore the pattern of change in multiple measures of cognitive abilities in a sample of oldest-old adults, comparing two different time metrics (chronological age and time to death and therefore examining both underlying conceptual assumptions (age-related change and terminal decline. Moreover, the association with individual characteristics as sex, education, and dementia diagnosis was also examined. Measures of cognitive status (Mini-Mental State Examination and the Swedish Clock Test and tests of crystallized (knowledge and synonyms, memory (verbal memory, nonverbal long-term memory, recognition and correspondence, and short-term memory, and visuospatial ability were included. The sample consisted of 671 older Swedish adult participants of the OCTO Twin Study. Linear mixed models with random coefficients were used to analyse change patterns and BIC indexes were used to compare models. Results showed that the time to death model was the best option in analyses of change in all the cognitive measures considered (except for the Information Test. A significant cognitive decline over time was found for all variables. Individuals diagnosed with dementia had lower scores at the study entrance and a faster decline. More educated individuals performed better in all the measures of cognition at study entry than those with poorer education, but no differences were found in the rate of change. Differences were found in age, sex, or time to death at baseline across the different measures. These results support the terminal decline hypothesis when compared to models assuming that cognitive changes are driven by normative aging processes.

  6. Sequential Gaussian co-simulation of rate decline parameters of longwall gob gas ventholes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karacan, C. Özgen; Olea, Ricardo A.

    2013-01-01

    Gob gas ventholes (GGVs) are used to control methane inflows into a longwall mining operation by capturing the gas within the overlying fractured strata before it enters the work environment. Using geostatistical co-simulation techniques, this paper maps the parameters of their rate decline behaviors across the study area, a longwall mine in the Northern Appalachian basin. Geostatistical gas-in-place (GIP) simulations were performed, using data from 64 exploration boreholes, and GIP data were mapped within the fractured zone of the study area. In addition, methane flowrates monitored from 10 GGVs were analyzed using decline curve analyses (DCA) techniques to determine parameters of decline rates. Surface elevation showed the most influence on methane production from GGVs and thus was used to investigate its relation with DCA parameters using correlation techniques on normal-scored data. Geostatistical analysis was pursued using sequential Gaussian co-simulation with surface elevation as the secondary variable and with DCA parameters as the primary variables. The primary DCA variables were effective percentage decline rate, rate at production start, rate at the beginning of forecast period, and production end duration. Co-simulation results were presented to visualize decline parameters at an area-wide scale. Wells located at lower elevations, i.e., at the bottom of valleys, tend to perform better in terms of their rate declines compared to those at higher elevations. These results were used to calculate drainage radii of GGVs using GIP realizations. The calculated drainage radii are close to ones predicted by pressure transient tests.

  7. On the edge of death: Rates of decline and lower thresholds of biochemical condition in food-deprived fish larvae and juveniles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Stefan; Caldarone, E.M.; Chicharo, M.A.

    2012-01-01

    Gaining reliable estimates of how long fish early life stages can survive without feeding and how starvation rate and time until death are influenced by body size, temperature and species is critical to understanding processes controlling mortality in the sea. The present study is an across-speci...... are viable proxies for the physiological processes under food deprivation of individual fish pre-recruits in the laboratory and provide useful metrics for research on the role of starvation in the sea......Gaining reliable estimates of how long fish early life stages can survive without feeding and how starvation rate and time until death are influenced by body size, temperature and species is critical to understanding processes controlling mortality in the sea. The present study is an across......-species analysis of starvation-induced changes in biochemical condition in early life stages of ninemarine and freshwater fishes. Datawere compiled on changes in body size (dry weight, DW) and biochemical condition (standardized RNA–DNA ratio, sRD) throughout the course of starvation of yolk-sac and feeding larvae...

  8. Differential declines in syphilis-related mortality in the United States, 2000-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barragan, Noel C; Moschetti, Kristin; Smith, Lisa V; Sorvillo, Frank; Kuo, Tony

    2017-04-01

    After reaching an all time low in 2000, the rate of syphilis in the United States has been steadily increasing. Parallel benchmarking of the disease's mortality burden has not been undertaken. Using ICD-10 classification, all syphilis-related deaths in the national Multiple Cause of Death dataset were examined for the period 2000-2014. Descriptive statistics and age-adjusted mortality rates were generated. Poisson regression was performed to analyze trends over time. A matched case-control analysis was conducted to assess the associations between syphilis-related deaths and comorbid conditions listed in the death records. A total of 1,829 deaths were attributed to syphilis; 32% (n = 593) identified syphilis as the underlying cause of death. Most decedents were men (60%) and either black (48%) or white (39%). Decedents aged ≥85 years had the highest average mortality rate (0.47 per 100,000 population; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42-0.52). For the sampled period, the average annual decline in mortality was -2.90% (95% CI, -3.93% to -1.87%). However, the average annual percent change varied across subgroups of interest. Declines in U.S. syphilis mortality suggest early detection and improved treatment access likely helped attenuate disease progression; however, increases in the disease rate since 2000 may be offsetting the impact of these advancements. Copyright © 2017 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. The Effects of Vehicle Redesign on the Risk of Driver Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Charles M; Lund, Adrian K

    2015-01-01

    This study updates a 2006 report that estimated the historical effects of vehicle design changes on driver fatality rates in the United States, separate from the effects of environmental and driver behavior changes during the same period. In addition to extending the period covered by 8 years, this study estimated the effect of design changes by model year and vehicle type. Driver death rates for consecutive model years of vehicle models without design changes were used to estimate the vehicle aging effect and the death rates that would have been expected if the entire fleet had remained unchanged from the 1985 calendar year. These calendar year estimates are taken to be the combined effect of road environment and motorist behavioral changes, with the difference between them and the actual calendar year driver fatality rates reflecting the effect of changes in vehicle design and distribution of vehicle types. The effects of vehicle design changes by model year were estimated for cars, SUVs, and pickups by computing driver death rates for model years 1984-2009 during each of their first 3 full calendar years of exposure and comparing with the expected rates if there had been no design changes. As reported in the 2006 study, had there been no changes in the vehicle fleet, driver death risk would have declined during calendar years 1985-1993 and then slowly increased from 1993 to 2004. The updated results indicate that the gradual increase would have continued through 2006, after which driver fatality rates again would have declined through 2012. Overall, it is estimated that there were 7,700 fewer driver deaths in 2012 than there would have been had vehicle designs not changed. Cars were the first vehicle type whose design safety generally exceeded that of the 1984 model year (starting in model year 1996), followed by SUVs (1998 models) and pickups (2002 models). By the 2009 model year, car driver fatality risk had declined 51% from its high in 1994, pickup driver

  10. Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Opuni Marjorie

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model. We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log

  11. Update on the prevention of death from ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacomelli, Jo; Summers, Lisa; Stevenson, Anne; Lees, Tim; Earnshaw, Jonothan J

    2017-09-01

    Objectives To monitor the early effect of a national population screening programme for abdominal aortic aneurysm in 65-year-old men. Setting The study used national statistics for death rates from abdominal aortic aneurysm (Office of National Statistics) and hospital admission data in England (Hospital Episode Statistics). Methods Information concerning deaths from abdominal aortic aneurysm (ruptured and non-ruptured) (1999-2014) and hospital admissions for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (2000-2015) was examined. Results The absolute number of deaths from abdominal aortic aneurysm in men and women aged 65 and over has decreased by around 30% from 2001 to 2014, but as the population has increased, the relative reduction was 45.6% and 40.0%, respectively. Some 65% of all abdominal aortic aneurysm deaths are in men aged over 65; women aged 65 and over account for around 31%. Deaths from ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm in men aged 60-74 (the screened group) appear to be declining at the same rate as in men aged 75 and over. The relative decline in admissions to hospital with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm may be greater in men and women aged 60-74 (which contains the screened group of men), than those older, giving the first possible evidence that abdominal aortic aneurysm screening is having an effect. Conclusion The death rate from abdominal aortic aneurysm is declining rapidly in England. There is the first evidence that screening may be contributing to this reduction.

  12. The declined levels of inflammatory cytokines related with weaning rate during period of septic patients using ventilators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chao-Huei; Hsiao, Jung-Lung; Wu, Ming-Feng; Lu, Mei-Hua; Chang, Hui-Ming; Ko, Wang-Sheng; Chiou, Ya-Ling

    2018-02-01

    Approximately 50% of patients with sepsis-induced acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome require mechanical ventilation. Patients with extended mechanical ventilator use routinely develop reinfections, which increases hospital stay, mortality, and health care cost. Some studies have pointed out inflammatory factors concentrations can affect ventilator weaning, but do not indicate changed inflammatory factors related to ventilator weaning during using ventilators. This study aimed to investigate during period of septic patients using ventilators, the inflammatory cytokines concentrations related with weaning rate. Blood was collected from 35 septic patients before and during ventilator use on days 1, 7, 14, and 21 (or weaning). 58.3% (N = 20) of septic patients with mechanical ventilators were weaned successfully within 21 days (ventilator weaned group, VW), 16.7% (N = 6) did not wean within 21 days (ventilator dependent group, VD), and 25% died (death group) in hospital. Before ventilator use, higher C-reactive protein (CRP), IL-6, and IL-8 levels were measured in the death group than in all other groups (P ventilator use, CRP, IL-6, and IL-8 concentrations declined significantly in VW and VD patients (P ventilators weaning successfully such as disease control, nutritional status, and so on. The declined levels of serum inflammatory cytokines, especially IL-6, improved inflammation status might be one factor of successfully weaning during septic patients on ventilators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Declining Rates of Inpatient Parathyroidectomy for Primary Hyperparathyroidism in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Moon; Shu, Aimee D.; Long, Jin; Montez-Rath, Maria E.; Leonard, Mary B.; Norton, Jeffrey A.; Chertow, Glenn M.

    2016-01-01

    Parathyroidectomy is the only curative therapy for patients with primary hyperparathyroidism. However, the incidence, correlates and consequences of parathyroidectomy for primary hyperparathyroidism across the entire US population are unknown. We evaluated temporal trends in rates of inpatient parathyroidectomy for primary hyperparathyroidism, and associated in-hospital mortality, length of stay, and costs. We used the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 2002–2011. Parathyroidectomies for primary hyperparathyroidism were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Unadjusted and age- and sex- adjusted rates of inpatient parathyroidectomy for primary hyperparathyroidism were derived from the NIS and the annual US Census. We estimated 109,583 parathyroidectomies for primary hyperparathyroidism between 2002 and 2011. More than half (55.4%) of patients were younger than age 65, and more than three-quarters (76.8%) were female. The overall rate of inpatient parathyroidectomy was 32.3 cases per million person-years. The adjusted rate decreased from 2004 (48.3 cases/million person-years) to 2007 (31.7 cases/million person-years) and was sustained thereafter. Although inpatient parathyroidectomy rates declined over time across all geographic regions, a steeper decline was observed in the South compared to other regions. Overall in-hospital mortality rates were 0.08%: 0.02% in patients younger than 65 years and 0.14% in patients 65 years and older. Inpatient parathyroidectomy rates for primary hyperparathyroidism have declined in recent years. PMID:27529699

  14. Cancer as a cause of death among people with AIDS in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simard, Edgar P.; Engels, Eric A.

    2010-01-01

    Background People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), are at increased risk for cancer. Highly active antiretroviral therapy [(HAART), widely available since 1996] has resulted in dramatic declines in AIDS-related deaths. Methods We evaluated cancer as a cause of death in a U.S. registry-based cohort of 83,282 people with AIDS (1980–2006). Causes of death due to AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs) and non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) were assessed. We evaluated mortality rates and the fraction of deaths due to cancer. Poisson regression assessed rates according to calendar year of AIDS onset. Results Overall mortality declined from 302 (1980–1989), to 140 (1990–1995), to 29 per 1,000 person-years (1996–2006). ADC mortality declined from 2.95 (1980–1989) to 0.65 per 1,000 person-years (1996–2006) (PAIDS-related deaths. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma was the commonest cancer-related cause of death (36% during 1996–2006). Likewise, NADC mortality declined from 2.21 to 0.84 per 1,000 person-years (1980–1989 vs. 1996–2006, PAIDS, cancers account for a growing fraction of deaths. Improved cancer prevention and treatment, particularly for non-Hodgkin lymphoma and lung cancer, would reduce mortality among people with AIDS. PMID:20825305

  15. Acute empathy decline among resident physician trainees on a hematology-oncology ward: an exploratory analysis of house staff empathy, distress, and patient death exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarland, Daniel C; Malone, Adriana K; Roth, Andrew

    2017-05-01

    A reason for empathy decline during medical training has not been fully elucidated. Empathy may decrease acutely during an inpatient hematology-oncology rotation because of the acuity of death exposures. This study aimed to explore physician trainee empathy, distress, death exposures, and their attributed meaning for the trainee. Internal medicine interns and residents at a single academic center were evaluated before and after hematology-oncology ward rotations using Interpersonal Reactivity Index for empathy, previously cited reasons for empathy decline, Impact of Event Scale-Revised for distress, death exposures (no. of dying patients cared for) and attributed sense of meaning (yes/no) (post-rotation). Fifty-six trainees completed both pre-rotation and post-rotation questionnaires (58% response). Empathy averaged 58.9 (SD 12.0) before and 56.8 (SD 11.1) after the rotation (2.1 point decrease) (p = 0.018). Distress was elevated but did not change significantly during the rotation. Residents cared for 4.28 dying patients. Seventy-three percent reported that death was the most stressful event during the rotation, yet 68% reported that they derived a sense of meaning from caring for dying patients. Empathy and distress scales were positively correlated before the rotation (r = 0.277, p = 0.041) but not after (r = .059, p = 0.69). This study suggests that an acute drop in empathy can occur over several weeks in residents rotating through inpatient hematology-oncology, similar to empathy decline associated with years of training in other studies. Empathy decline may be associated with elevated distress and death exposures on the hematology-oncology ward and should be explored further in other medical training environments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Rates of intentionally caused and road crash deaths of US citizens abroad.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherry, Melissa K; Mossallam, Mahmoud; Mulligan, Matthew; Hyder, Adnan A; Bishai, David

    2015-04-01

    Currently, little is known about rates of death by cause and country among US travellers. Understanding the risk by cause and country is imperative to risk communication and the development of risk reduction strategies. Publicly available data on non-natural deaths of US citizens abroad were gathered from January 2003 to December 2009 from the US Department of State's Department Bureau of Consular Affairs. Traveller information was gathered from the US Department of Commerce Office of Travel and Tourism for the same time period. Rates of death were calculated by dividing the number of non-natural deaths of US citizens abroad by the number of US outbound visits for each country. A total of 5417 non-natural death events were retrieved between 2003 and 2009 from the US State Department. Intentionally caused death rates ranged from 21.44 per 1 000 000 visits in the Philippines to 0 per 1 000 000 visits in several countries; the majority of countries had fewer than five intentionally caused deaths per 1 000 000 visits. Rates of road traffic crashes were higher than rates of intentionally caused deaths in almost every instance. Thailand had the highest rate of deaths due to road traffic crashes (16.49 per 1 000 000), followed by Vietnam, Morocco and South Africa (15.12 per 1 000 000, 11.96 per 1 000 000 and 10.90 per 1 000 000, respectively). Motorcycle deaths account for most of the heightened risk observed in Thailand and Vietnam. The leading cause of non-natural deaths in US travellers abroad was road crashes, which exceeds intentional injury as the leading cause of non-natural deaths in almost every country where US citizens travel. Southeast Asia had the highest unintentional injury death rates for US citizens abroad due to the high rates of deaths from motorcycle crashes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  17. State-level minimum wage and heart disease death rates in the United States, 1980-2015: A novel application of marginal structural modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyke, Miriam E; Komro, Kelli A; Shah, Monica P; Livingston, Melvin D; Kramer, Michael R

    2018-07-01

    Despite substantial declines since the 1960's, heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States (US) and geographic disparities in heart disease mortality have grown. State-level socioeconomic factors might be important contributors to geographic differences in heart disease mortality. This study examined the association between state-level minimum wage increases above the federal minimum wage and heart disease death rates from 1980 to 2015 among 'working age' individuals aged 35-64 years in the US. Annual, inflation-adjusted state and federal minimum wage data were extracted from legal databases and annual state-level heart disease death rates were obtained from CDC Wonder. Although most minimum wage and health studies to date use conventional regression models, we employed marginal structural models to account for possible time-varying confounding. Quasi-experimental, marginal structural models accounting for state, year, and state × year fixed effects estimated the association between increases in the state-level minimum wage above the federal minimum wage and heart disease death rates. In models of 'working age' adults (35-64 years old), a $1 increase in the state-level minimum wage above the federal minimum wage was on average associated with ~6 fewer heart disease deaths per 100,000 (95% CI: -10.4, -1.99), or a state-level heart disease death rate that was 3.5% lower per year. In contrast, for older adults (65+ years old) a $1 increase was on average associated with a 1.1% lower state-level heart disease death rate per year (b = -28.9 per 100,000, 95% CI: -71.1, 13.3). State-level economic policies are important targets for population health research. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Rate of pulmonary function decline in South African children with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    mortality associated with cystic fibrosis (CF).1 The pattern of lung function .... pancreatic function, and colonisation with Staphylococcus aureus or .... a twofold increase in the risk of having moderate to severe .... Risk factors for rate of decline.

  19. IQ as moderator of terminal decline in perceptual and motor speed, spatial, and verbal ability: Testing the cognitive reserve hypothesis in a population-based sample followed from age 70 until death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorvaldsson, Valgeir; Skoog, Ingmar; Johansson, Boo

    2017-03-01

    Terminal decline (TD) refers to acceleration in within-person cognitive decline prior to death. The cognitive reserve hypothesis postulates that individuals with higher IQ are able to better tolerate age-related increase in brain pathologies. On average, they will exhibit a later onset of TD, but once they start to decline, their trajectory is steeper relative to those with lower IQ. We tested these predictions using data from initially nondemented individuals (n = 179) in the H70-study repeatedly measured at ages 70, 75, 79, 81, 85, 88, 90, 92, 95, 97, 99, and 100, or until death, on cognitive tests of perceptual-and-motor-speed and spatial and verbal ability. We quantified IQ using the Raven's Coloured Progressive Matrices (RCPM) test administrated at age 70. We fitted random change point TD models to the data, within a Bayesian framework, conditioned on IQ, age of death, education, and sex. In line with predictions, we found that 1 additional standard deviation on the IQ scale was associated with a delay in onset of TD by 1.87 (95% highest density interval [HDI; 0.20, 4.08]) years on speed, 1.96 (95% HDI [0.15, 3.54]) years on verbal ability, but only 0.88 (95% HDI [-0.93, 3.49]) year on spatial ability. Higher IQ was associated with steeper rate of decline within the TD phase on measures of speed and verbal ability, whereas results on spatial ability were nonconclusive. Our findings provide partial support for the cognitive reserve hypothesis and demonstrate that IQ can be a significant moderator of cognitive change trajectories in old age. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. The Parkinson's disease death rate: carbidopa and vitamin B6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinz, Marty; Stein, Alvin; Cole, Ted

    2014-01-01

    The only indication for carbidopa and benserazide is the management of L-3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine (L-dopa)-induced nausea. Both drugs irreversibly bind to and permanently deactivate pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP), the active form of vitamin B6, and PLP-dependent enzymes. PLP is required for the function of over 300 enzymes and proteins. Virtually every major system in the body is impacted directly or indirectly by PLP. The administration of carbidopa and benserazide potentially induces a nutritional catastrophe. During the first 15 years of prescribing L-dopa, a decreasing Parkinson's disease death rate was observed. Then, in 1976, 1 year after US Food and Drug Administration approved the original L-dopa/carbidopa combination drug, the Parkinson's disease death rate started increasing. This trend has continued to the present, for 38 years and counting. The previous literature documents this increasing death rate, but no hypothesis has been offered concerning this trend. Carbidopa is postulated to contribute to the increasing Parkinson's disease death rate and to the classification of Parkinson's as a progressive neurodegenerative disease. It may contribute to L-dopa tachyphylaxis.

  1. Poor semen quality may contribute to recent decline in fertility rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Tina Kold; Carlsen, Elisabeth; Jørgensen, Niels; Berthelsen, Jørgen G; Keiding, Niels; Christensen, Kaare; Petersen, Jørgen Holm; Knudsen, Lisbeth B; Skakkebaek, Niels E

    2002-06-01

    During past decades, we have witnessed a remarkable decline in fertility rates (number of births per 1000 women of reproductive age) in the industrialized world. It seems beyond doubt that the enormous social changes of our societies play the major role in this decline, but can it be attributed to changing social structures alone or is a reduced fecundity in the population also a factor? To address this we have focused on trends in teenage pregnancies (which to a large extent are unplanned). During the period in question fertility rates among 15-19 year old Danish women have been falling and the decline in fertility rate is not counterbalanced by an increase in the rate of induced abortion. When seen together with recent results from Denmark, which have shown that more than 30% of 19 year old men from the general population now have sperm counts in the subfertile range, we argue that this fall may not be attributable to social factors, changes in conception practices or diminished sexual activity alone. It seems reasonable also to consider widespread poor semen quality among men as a potential contributing factor to low fertility rates among teenagers. Due to the concern caused by the low sperm count among younger Danish men, the Danish Ministries of Health and Environment have launched a surveillance programme which includes an annual examination of the semen quality in 600 young Danes from the general population. We propose that researchers in other countries with low and falling fertility rates among young women should consider the possibility that semen quality of their younger male cohorts may also have deteriorated.

  2. Changes in causes of death among persons with AIDS: San Francisco, California, 1996-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarcz, Sandra K; Vu, Annie; Hsu, Ling Chin; Hessol, Nancy A

    2014-10-01

    The increased life expectancy among HIV-infected persons treated with combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), risk behaviors, and co-morbidities associated with ART place HIV-infected persons at risk for non-HIV-related causes of death. We used the San Francisco HIV/AIDS registry to identify deaths that occurred from January 1996 through December 2011. Temporal trends in AIDS- and non-AIDS-related mortality rates, the proportion of underlying and contributory causes of death, and the ratio of observed deaths in the study population to expected number of deaths among California men aged 20-79 (standardized mortality ratio [SMR]) of underlying causes of death were examined. A total of 5338 deaths were identified. The annual AIDS-related death rate (per 100 deaths) declined from 10.8 in 1996 to 0.9 in 2011 (pdeath rate from non-AIDS-related causes declined from 2.1 in 1996 to 0.9 in 2011 (pdeaths due to all types of heart disease combined, all non-AIDS cancers combined, mental disorders resulting from substance abuse, drug overdose, suicide and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease increased significantly over time. The SMRs for liver diseased decreased significantly over time but remained elevated. Our data highlight the importance of age-related causes of death as well as deaths from causes that are, at least in part, preventable.

  3. Australia's 1996 gun law reforms: faster falls in firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and a decade without mass shootings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, S; Alpers, P; Agho, K; Jones, M

    2006-12-01

    After a 1996 firearm massacre in Tasmania in which 35 people died, Australian governments united to remove semi-automatic and pump-action shotguns and rifles from civilian possession, as a key component of gun law reforms. To determine whether Australia's 1996 major gun law reforms were associated with changes in rates of mass firearm homicides, total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides, and whether there were any apparent method substitution effects for total homicides and suicides. Observational study using official statistics. Negative binomial regression analysis of changes in firearm death rates and comparison of trends in pre-post gun law reform firearm-related mass killings. Australia, 1979-2003. Changes in trends of total firearm death rates, mass fatal shooting incidents, rates of firearm homicide, suicide and unintentional firearm deaths, and of total homicides and suicides per 100,000 population. In the 18 years before the gun law reforms, there were 13 mass shootings in Australia, and none in the 10.5 years afterwards. Declines in firearm-related deaths before the law reforms accelerated after the reforms for total firearm deaths (p = 0.04), firearm suicides (p = 0.007) and firearm homicides (p = 0.15), but not for the smallest category of unintentional firearm deaths, which increased. No evidence of substitution effect for suicides or homicides was observed. The rates per 100,000 of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides all at least doubled their existing rates of decline after the revised gun laws. Australia's 1996 gun law reforms were followed by more than a decade free of fatal mass shootings, and accelerated declines in firearm deaths, particularly suicides. Total homicide rates followed the same pattern. Removing large numbers of rapid-firing firearms from civilians may be an effective way of reducing mass shootings, firearm homicides and firearm suicides.

  4. Trends in bipolar disorder or depression as a cause of death on death certificates of US residents, 1999-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polednak, Anthony P

    2013-07-01

    Temporal trends in mortality from bipolar disorder (BD) or depression in the US population, based on multiple causes (MC) rather than underlying cause (UC) alone on death certificates, apparently have not been examined. The annual US age-standardized rate (ASR) for deaths per 100,000 US residents age 15+ years, and age-specific rates, for BD or depression using MC versus UC alone was examined for 1999-2009; percentage change (PC) from 1999 to 2009 was calculated. The ASRs at age 15+ years were much higher using MC than UC alone. For BD using MC, the ASR increased from 1999 to 2009 (PC +69.2 %) with larger increases in age groups within 15-64 years (PCs about 200 %). For depression using MC, the ASR rose from 1999 to 2003 and then declined, but the decline was restricted to age 65+ years; the ASR at age 15-64 years increased from 1999 to 2009 (PC +55.5 %). For deaths at age 15-64 years with BD or depression as other than UC, the ASRs increased for external causes, cardiovascular diseases, external causes, and neoplasms as UC. The large increases in mortality from BD using MC are consistent with reported increases in BD prevalence rates in the US population. The temporal increases in death rates related to mood disorders at age 15-64 years may provide further support for the need for interventions to address the mediators of excess mortality identified from cohort studies.

  5. Death Rates in the Calorie Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Machay

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Calorie model unifies the Classical demand and the supply in the food market. Hence, solves the major problem of Classical stationary state. It is, hence, formalization of the Classical theory of population. The model does not reflect the imperfections of reality mentioned by Malthus himself. It is the aim of this brief paper to relax some of the strong assumptions of the Calorie model to make it more realistic. As the results show the political economists were correct. The death resulting from malnutrition can occur way sooner than the stationary state itself. Moreover, progressive and retrograde movements can be easily described by the death rate derived in the paper. JEL Classification: J11, Q11, Q15, Q21, Y90.

  6. Association Between Gun Law Reforms and Intentional Firearm Deaths in Australia, 1979-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Simon; Alpers, Philip; Jones, Michael

    2016-07-19

    Rapid-fire weapons are often used by perpetrators in mass shooting incidents. In 1996 Australia introduced major gun law reforms that included a ban on semiautomatic rifles and pump-action shotguns and rifles and also initiated a program for buyback of firearms. To determine whether enactment of the 1996 gun laws and buyback program were followed by changes in the incidence of mass firearm homicides and total firearm deaths. Observational study using Australian government statistics on deaths caused by firearms (1979-2013) and news reports of mass shootings in Australia (1979-May 2016). Changes in intentional firearm death rates were analyzed with negative binomial regression, and data on firearm-related mass killings were compared. Implementation of major national gun law reforms. Changes in mass fatal shooting incidents (defined as ≥5 victims, not including the perpetrator) and in trends of rates of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and suicides, and total homicides and suicides per 100,000 population. From 1979-1996 (before gun law reforms), 13 fatal mass shootings occurred in Australia, whereas from 1997 through May 2016 (after gun law reforms), no fatal mass shootings occurred. There was also significant change in the preexisting downward trends for rates of total firearm deaths prior to vs after gun law reform. From 1979-1996, the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 3.6 (95% CI, 3.3-3.9) per 100,000 population (average decline of 3% per year; annual trend, 0.970; 95% CI, 0.963-0.976), whereas from 1997-2013 (after gun law reforms), the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) per 100,000 population (average decline of 4.9% per year; annual trend, 0.951; 95% CI, 0.940-0.962), with a ratio of trends in annual death rates of 0.981 (95% CI, 0.968-0.993). There was a statistically significant acceleration in the preexisting downward trend for firearm suicide (ratio of trends, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.970-0.993), but this was not statistically

  7. Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Souchay

    Full Text Available Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960-2010 of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY and older birds (after first-year; AFY originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity. Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions.

  8. Phosphoproteomics analysis of postmortem porcine muscle with pH decline rate and time difference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Honggang; Larsen, Martin R; Karlsson, Anders H

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to characterize the protein phosphorylation in postmortem (PM) muscle and reveal the change during meat quality development. The gel-based phosphoproteomic analysis of PM porcine muscle was performed in three pig groups with different pH decline rates from PM 1h to 24 h....... The sarcoplasmic and myofibrillar fractions were analyzed using gel electrophoresis in combination with a phosphoprotein specific staining. Globally, the group with fast pH decline rate had the highest phosphorylation level at PM 1 h, but lowest at PM 24 h, whereas the group with slow pH decline rate showed...... the reverse case. The phosphorylation level of 12 bands in sarcoplasmic fraction and 3 bands in myofibrillar fraction were significantly affected by the synergy effects of pH and time (p

  9. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  10. Citation rate and perceived subject bias in the amphibian-decline literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmer, Michel E; Bishop, Phillip J

    2011-02-01

    As a result of global declines in amphibian populations, interest in the conservation of amphibians has grown. This growth has been fueled partially by the recent discovery of other potential causes of declines, including chytridiomycosis (the amphibian chytrid, an infectious disease) and climate change. It has been proposed that researchers have shifted their focus to these novel stressors and that other threats to amphibians, such as habitat loss, are not being studied in proportion to their potential effects. We tested the validity of this proposal by reviewing the literature on amphibian declines, categorizing the primary topic of articles within this literature (e.g., habitat loss or UV-B radiation) and comparing citation rates among articles on these topics and impact factors of journals in which the articles were published. From 1990 to 2009, the proportion of papers on habitat loss remained fairly constant, and although the number of papers on chytridiomycosis increased after the disease was described in 1998, the number of published papers on amphibian declines also increased. Nevertheless, papers on chytridiomycosis were more highly cited than papers not on chytridiomycosis and were published in journals with higher impact factors on average, which may indicate this research topic is more popular in the literature. Our results were not consistent with a shift in the research agenda on amphibians. We believe the perception of such a shift has been supported by the higher citation rates of papers on chytridiomycosis. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. [Declining birth rates as a cause of unemployment? Some remarks on the Gunther paradox].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, A

    1980-01-01

    Gunther (1931) regarded the fact that a diminishing future labor force due to lack of demand leads to increasing unemployment at the present time as a paradox. The presumed connection between declining birth rates and rising unemployment in contrast to a rising birth rate and declining unemployment in a transition period of about 15-20 years is called a Guenther paradox. The author tries to explain the Guenther paradox by means of a macrodemoeconomic model with disequilibrium on the labor market. Clearly there is a relationship between birth rate and unemployment. (author's)

  12. Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

    2014-08-01

    Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

  13. Urate predicts rate of clinical decline in Parkinson disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascherio, Alberto; LeWitt, Peter A.; Xu, Kui; Eberly, Shirley; Watts, Arthur; Matson, Wayne R.; Marras, Connie; Kieburtz, Karl; Rudolph, Alice; Bogdanov, Mikhail B.; Schwid, Steven R.; Tennis, Marsha; Tanner, Caroline M.; Beal, M. Flint; Lang, Anthony E.; Oakes, David; Fahn, Stanley; Shoulson, Ira; Schwarzschild, Michael A.

    2009-01-01

    Context The risk of Parkinson disease (PD) and its rate of progression may decline with increasing blood urate, a major antioxidant. Objective To determine whether serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of urate predict clinical progression in patients with PD. Design, Setting, and Participants 800 subjects with early PD enrolled in the DATATOP trial. Pre-treatment urate was measured in serum for 774 subjects and in CSF for 713. Main Outcome Measures Treatment-, age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for clinical disability requiring levodopa therapy, the pre-specified primary endpoint. Results The HR of progressing to endpoint decreased with increasing serum urate (HR for 1 standard deviation increase = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.73 to 0.93). In analyses stratified by α-tocopherol treatment (2,000 IU/day), a decrease in the HR for the primary endpoint was seen only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol (HR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.89, versus those treated HR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.75 to 1.08). Results were similar for the rate of change in the United Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). CSF urate was also inversely related to both the primary endpoint (HR for highest versus lowest quintile = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.54 to 0.96) and to the rate of change in UPDRS. As with serum urate, these associations were present only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol. Conclusion Higher serum and CSF urate at baseline were associated with slower rates of clinical decline. The findings strengthen the link between urate and PD and the rationale for considering CNS urate elevation as a potential strategy to slow PD progression. PMID:19822770

  14. The Parkinson's disease death rate: carbidopa and vitamin B6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hinz M

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Marty Hinz,1 Alvin Stein,2 Ted Cole31Clinical Research, NeuroResearch Clinics, Inc., Cape Coral, FL, USA; 2Stein Orthopedic Associates, Plantation, FL, USA; 3Cole Center for Healing, Cincinnati, OH, USAAbstract: The only indication for carbidopa and benserazide is the management of L-3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine (L-dopa-induced nausea. Both drugs irreversibly bind to and permanently deactivate pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP, the active form of vitamin B6, and PLP-dependent enzymes. PLP is required for the function of over 300 enzymes and proteins. Virtually every major system in the body is impacted directly or indirectly by PLP. The administration of carbidopa and benserazide potentially induces a nutritional catastrophe. During the first 15 years of prescribing L-dopa, a decreasing Parkinson's disease death rate was observed. Then, in 1976, 1 year after US Food and Drug Administration approved the original L-dopa/carbidopa combination drug, the Parkinson's disease death rate started increasing. This trend has continued to the present, for 38 years and counting. The previous literature documents this increasing death rate, but no hypothesis has been offered concerning this trend. Carbidopa is postulated to contribute to the increasing Parkinson's disease death rate and to the classification of Parkinson's as a progressive neurodegenerative disease. It may contribute to L-dopa tachyphylaxis.Keywords: L-dopa, levodopa, vitamin B6, pyridoxal 5'-phosphate

  15. Representations for the rate of convergence of birth-death processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, Erik A.

    2002-01-01

    We display some representations for the rate of convergence of a birth-death process, which are useful for obtaining upper and lower bounds. The expressions are brought to light by exploiting the spectral representation for the transition probabilities of a birth-death process and results from the

  16. Representations for the rate of convergence of birth-death processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, Erik A.

    2001-01-01

    We display some representations for the rate of convergence of a birth-death process, which are useful for obtaining upper and lower bounds. The expressions are brought to light by exploiting the spectral representation for the transition probabilities of a birth-death process and results from the

  17. Did the Great Recession affect mortality rates in the metropolitan United States? Effects on mortality by age, gender and cause of death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strumpf, Erin C; Charters, Thomas J; Harper, Sam; Nandi, Arijit

    2017-09-01

    Mortality rates generally decline during economic recessions in high-income countries, however gaps remain in our understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study estimates the impacts of increases in unemployment rates on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality across U.S. metropolitan regions during the Great Recession. We estimate the effects of economic conditions during the recent and severe recessionary period on mortality, including differences by age and gender subgroups, using fixed effects regression models. We identify a plausibly causal effect by isolating the impacts of within-metropolitan area changes in unemployment rates and controlling for common temporal trends. We aggregated vital statistics, population, and unemployment data at the area-month-year-age-gender-race level, yielding 527,040 observations across 366 metropolitan areas, 2005-2010. We estimate that a one percentage point increase in the metropolitan area unemployment rate was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 person years (95%CI -6.80 to -1.10), or 0.5%. Estimated reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality contributed 60% of the overall effect and were more pronounced among women. Motor vehicle accident mortality declined with unemployment increases, especially for men and those under age 65, as did legal intervention and homicide mortality, particularly for men and adults ages 25-64. We find suggestive evidence that increases in metropolitan area unemployment increased accidental drug poisoning deaths for both men and women ages 25-64. Our finding that all-cause mortality decreased during the Great Recession is consistent with previous studies. Some categories of cause-specific mortality, notably cardiovascular disease, also follow this pattern, and are more pronounced for certain gender and age groups. Our study also suggests that the recent recession contributed to the growth in deaths from overdoses of prescription drugs in

  18. Australia's 1996 gun law reforms: faster falls in firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and a decade without mass shootings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, S; Alpers, P; Agho, K; Jones, M

    2015-10-01

    After a 1996 firearm massacre in Tasmania in which 35 people died, Australian governments united to remove semi-automatic and pump-action shotguns and rifles from civilian possession, as a key component of gun law reforms. To determine whether Australia's 1996 major gun law reforms were associated with changes in rates of mass firearm homicides, total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides, and whether there were any apparent method substitution effects for total homicides and suicides. Observational study using official statistics. Negative binomial regression analysis of changes in firearm death rates and comparison of trends in pre-post gun law reform firearm-related mass killings. Australia, 1979-2003. Changes in trends of total firearm death rates, mass fatal shooting incidents, rates of firearm homicide, suicide and unintentional firearm deaths, and of total homicides and suicides per 100 000 population. In the 18 years before the gun law reforms, there were 13 mass shootings in Australia, and none in the 10.5 years afterwards. Declines in firearm-related deaths before the law reforms accelerated after the reforms for total firearm deaths (p=0.04), firearm suicides (p=0.007) and firearm homicides (p=0.15), but not for the smallest category of unintentional firearm deaths, which increased. No evidence of substitution effect for suicides or homicides was observed. The rates per 100 000 of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides all at least doubled their existing rates of decline after the revised gun laws. Australia's 1996 gun law reforms were followed by more than a decade free of fatal mass shootings, and accelerated declines in firearm deaths, particularly suicides. Total homicide rates followed the same pattern. Removing large numbers of rapid-firing firearms from civilians may be an effective way of reducing mass shootings, firearm homicides and firearm suicides. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For

  19. Fines stabilizing agent reduces production decline rates in steam injected wells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castillo de Castillo, Milagros; Fernandez Andrades, Jarvi [PDVSA - Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., Caracas (Venezuela); Navarro Cornejo, Willian; Curtis, James [BJ Services do Brasil Ltda., RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The Bachaquero Lago heavy oil field, located in Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela, with an area of 9800 ha, in which more than 1800 wells have been drilled. The Lagunillas formation in this field is a mature, clastic, unconsolidated sandstone of Miocene age with good permeability. Clays are present, in laminated form or dispersed within the productive sandstones. Heavy oil, less than 12 deg API, is produced by cyclic steam injection. Wells are completed with cased-hole gravel packs to prevent sand and fines production. Rapid production decline rates are typically observed after the steam injection cycles, due to fines migration and plugging of the reservoir and gravel pack. This paper describes the methodology used to treat the wells with a fines stabilizing agent during the steam injection cycles in order to successfully reduce the subsequent production decline rate. Results from a multi-well pilot project are presented and analyzed. (author)

  20. Social position and functional decline among non-disabled old men and women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Kirsten; Damsgaard, Mogens Trab; Osler, Merete

    2004-01-01

    material wealth were related to functional decline and death in both men and women, but the patterns differed: housing tenure was related to functional decline and death among the men, while income was related to functional decline and death among the women. The associations were not attenuated when...... adjusted by behavioural factors. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that poor material wealth is associated with functional decline independent of behavioural factors in a selected population of non-disabled older adults. Thus, the cumulative influence of material wealth throughout the life-course cannot...

  1. Disability Rating, Age at Death, and Cause of Death in U.S. Veterans with Service-Connected Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Charles; Trivedi, Ranak; Nelson, Karin; Fihn, Stephan D

    2018-03-26

    The association between disability and cause of death in Veterans with service-connected disabilities has not been studied. The objective of this study was to compare age at death, military service and disability characteristics, including disability rating, and cause of death by year of birth. We also examined cause of death for specific service-connected conditions. This study used information from the VETSNET file, which is a snapshot of selected items from the Veterans Benefits Administration corporate database. We also used the National Death Index (NDI) for Veterans which is part of the VA Suicide Data Repository. In VETSNET, there were 758,324 Veterans who had a service-connected condition and died between the years 2004 and 2014. Using the scrambled social security number to link the two files resulted in 605,493 (80%) deceased Veterans. Age at death, sex, and underlying cause of death were obtained from the NDI for Veterans and military service characteristics and types of disability were acquired from VETSNET. We constructed age categories corresponding to period of service; birth years 1938 and earlier corresponded to Korea and World War II ("oldest"), birth years 1939-1957 to the Vietnam era ("middle"), and birth years 1958 and later to post Vietnam, Gulf War, and the more recent conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan ("youngest"). Sixty-two percent were in the oldest age category, 34% in the middle group, and 4% in the youngest one. The overall age at death was 75 ± 13 yr. Only 1.6% of decedents were women; among women 25% were in the youngest age group, while among men only 4% were in the youngest group. Most decedents were enlisted personnel, and 60% served in the U.S. Army. Nearly 61% had a disability rating of >50% and for the middle age group 54% had a disability rating of 100%. The most common service-connected conditions were tinnitus, hearing loss, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In the oldest group, nearly half of deaths were due to

  2. Nonlinear fluctuations-induced rate equations for linear birth-death processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honkonen, J.

    2008-05-01

    The Fock-space approach to the solution of master equations for one-step Markov processes is reconsidered. It is shown that in birth-death processes with an absorbing state at the bottom of the occupation-number spectrum and occupation-number independent annihilation probability of occupation-number fluctuations give rise to rate equations drastically different from the polynomial form typical of birth-death processes. The fluctuation-induced rate equations with the characteristic exponential terms are derived for Mikhailov’s ecological model and Lanchester’s model of modern warfare.

  3. Nonlinear fluctuation-induced rate equations for linear birth-death processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honkonen, J.

    2008-01-01

    The Fock-space approach to the solution of master equations for the one-step Markov processes is reconsidered. It is shown that in birth-death processes with an absorbing state at the bottom of the occupation-number spectrum and occupation-number independent annihilation probability occupation-number fluctuations give rise to rate equations drastically different from the polynomial form typical of birth-death processes. The fluctuation-induced rate equations with the characteristic exponential terms are derived for Mikhailov's ecological model and Lanchester's model of modern warfare

  4. QuickStats: Age-Adjusted Death Rates* for Top Five Causes of Cancer Death,(†) by Race/Hispanic Ethnicity - United States, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-16

    In 2014, the top five causes of cancer deaths for the total population were lung, colorectal, female breast, pancreatic, and prostate cancer. The non-Hispanic black population had the highest age-adjusted death rates for each of these five cancers, followed by non-Hispanic white and Hispanic groups. The age-adjusted death rate for lung cancer, the leading cause of cancer death in all groups, was 42.1 per 100,000 standard population for the total population, 45.4 for non-Hispanic white, 45.7 for non-Hispanic black, and 18.3 for Hispanic populations.

  5. Lung cancer death rates among nonsmokers and pipe and cigarette smokers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stocks, P; Campbell, J M

    1955-01-01

    This report discusses a two-year comparison of deaths from lung cancer with environmental histories, including smoking and pollution character of residence, of British men aged 45 to 74. In rural areas, lung cancer increases almost linearly with smoking, the increment being 1 death per 1000 for each 13 cigarettes. Pipe smoking is about 1/3 as hazardous as cigarette-smoking. In mixed rural-urban areas, rates in light and moderate smokers were higher than rural but not so with pipe or heavy smokers. There was a higher death rate in every group in urban area, but rate of mortality increase with increasing cigarette exposure was greater for those living in rural areas. Urban/rural ratio was about 9 for nonsmokers decreasing to almost 1 for heavy smokers. Smoking contributes 1/2 of lung cancer in urban area; urban factor contributes 3/8 (absolute excess in every group). Benzopyrene concentration of urban area was 8 to 11 times that of rural areas and gradient corresponds to urban/rural ratio for nonsmokers. Benzopyrene/death correlation was good if assumed combined intake is considered.

  6. Death and population dynamics affect mutation rate estimates and evolvability under stress in bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenoy, Antoine; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    2018-05-01

    The stress-induced mutagenesis hypothesis postulates that in response to stress, bacteria increase their genome-wide mutation rate, in turn increasing the chances that a descendant is able to better withstand the stress. This has implications for antibiotic treatment: exposure to subinhibitory doses of antibiotics has been reported to increase bacterial mutation rates and thus probably the rate at which resistance mutations appear and lead to treatment failure. More generally, the hypothesis posits that stress increases evolvability (the ability of a population to generate adaptive genetic diversity) and thus accelerates evolution. Measuring mutation rates under stress, however, is problematic, because existing methods assume there is no death. Yet subinhibitory stress levels may induce a substantial death rate. Death events need to be compensated by extra replication to reach a given population size, thus providing more opportunities to acquire mutations. We show that ignoring death leads to a systematic overestimation of mutation rates under stress. We developed a system based on plasmid segregation that allows us to measure death and division rates simultaneously in bacterial populations. Using this system, we found that a substantial death rate occurs at the tested subinhibitory concentrations previously reported to increase mutation rate. Taking this death rate into account lowers and sometimes removes the signal for stress-induced mutagenesis. Moreover, even when antibiotics increase mutation rate, we show that subinhibitory treatments do not increase genetic diversity and evolvability, again because of effects of the antibiotics on population dynamics. We conclude that antibiotic-induced mutagenesis is overestimated because of death and that understanding evolvability under stress requires accounting for the effects of stress on population dynamics as much as on mutation rate. Our goal here is dual: we show that population dynamics and, in particular, the

  7. Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

    2016-02-01

    Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Socioeconomic inequalities in death from past to present: an introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bengtsson, T.; van Poppel, F.W.A.

    2011-01-01

    In the early postwar period, improvements in life expectancy in many Western countries made health authorities, health scientists and politicians believe that social differences in mortality converged. The assumption was that inequality, when measured as death rates, was on steady decline, possibly

  9. Heart Disease Death Rates Among Blacks and Whites Aged ≥35 Years - United States, 1968-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyke, Miriam; Greer, Sophia; Odom, Erika; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Kramer, Michael; Casper, Michele

    2018-03-30

    Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. In 2015, heart disease accounted for approximately 630,000 deaths, representing one in four deaths in the United States. Although heart disease death rates decreased 68% for the total population from 1968 to 2015, marked disparities in decreases exist by race and state. 1968-2015. The National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) data on deaths in the United States were abstracted for heart disease using diagnosis codes from the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10) for 1968-2015. Population estimates were obtained from NVSS files. National and state-specific heart disease death rates for the total population and by race for adults aged ≥35 years were calculated for 1968-2015. National and state-specific black-white heart disease mortality ratios also were calculated. Death rates were age standardized to the 2000 U.S. standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to perform time trend analyses. From 1968 to 2015, heart disease death rates decreased for the total U.S. population among adults aged ≥35 years, from 1,034.5 to 327.2 per 100,000 population, respectively, with variations in the magnitude of decreases by race and state. Rates decreased for the total population an average of 2.4% per year, with greater average decreases among whites (2.4% per year) than blacks (2.2% per year). At the national level, heart disease death rates for blacks and whites were similar at the start of the study period (1968) but began to diverge in the late 1970s, when rates for blacks plateaued while rates for whites continued to decrease. Heart disease death rates among blacks remained higher than among whites for the remainder of the study period. Nationwide, the black-white ratio of heart disease death rates increased from 1.04 in 1968 to 1.21 in 2015, with large increases occurring during the 1970s and 1980s followed by small but steady

  10. Pattern and Rate of Cognitive Decline in Cerebral Small Vessel Disease: A Prospective Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J Lawrence

    Full Text Available Cognitive impairment, predominantly affecting processing speed and executive function, is an important consequence of cerebral small vessel disease (SVD. To date, few longitudinal studies of cognition in SVD have been conducted. We determined the pattern and rate of cognitive decline in SVD and used the results to determine sample size calculations for clinical trials of interventions reducing cognitive decline.121 patients with MRI confirmed lacunar stroke and leukoaraiosis were enrolled into the prospective St George's Cognition And Neuroimaging in Stroke (SCANS study. Patients attended one baseline and three annual cognitive assessments providing 36 month follow-up data. Neuropsychological assessment comprised a battery of tests assessing working memory, long-term (episodic memory, processing speed and executive function. We calculated annualized change in cognition for the 98 patients who completed at least two time-points.Task performance was heterogeneous, but significant cognitive decline was found for the executive function index (p<0.007. Working memory and processing speed decreased numerically, but not significantly. The executive function composite score would require the smallest samples sizes for a treatment trial with an aim of halting decline, but this would still require over 2,000 patients per arm to detect a 30% difference with power of 0.8 over a three year follow-up.The pattern of cognitive decline seen in SVD over three years is consistent with the pattern of impairments at baseline. Rates of decline were slow and sample sizes would need to be large for clinical trials aimed at halting decline beyond initial diagnosis using cognitive scores as an outcome measure. This emphasizes the importance of more sensitive surrogate markers in this disease.

  11. US County-Level Trends in Mortality Rates for Major Causes of Death, 1980-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia; Stubbs, Rebecca W; Morozoff, Chloe; Kutz, Michael J; Huynh, Chantal; Barber, Ryan M; Shackelford, Katya A; Mackenbach, Johan P; van Lenthe, Frank J; Flaxman, Abraham D; Naghavi, Mohsen; Mokdad, Ali H; Murray, Christopher J L

    2016-12-13

    County-level patterns in mortality rates by cause have not been systematically described but are potentially useful for public health officials, clinicians, and researchers seeking to improve health and reduce geographic disparities. To demonstrate the use of a novel method for county-level estimation and to estimate annual mortality rates by US county for 21 mutually exclusive causes of death from 1980 through 2014. Redistribution methods for garbage codes (implausible or insufficiently specific cause of death codes) and small area estimation methods (statistical methods for estimating rates in small subpopulations) were applied to death registration data from the National Vital Statistics System to estimate annual county-level mortality rates for 21 causes of death. These estimates were raked (scaled along multiple dimensions) to ensure consistency between causes and with existing national-level estimates. Geographic patterns in the age-standardized mortality rates in 2014 and in the change in the age-standardized mortality rates between 1980 and 2014 for the 10 highest-burden causes were determined. County of residence. Cause-specific age-standardized mortality rates. A total of 80 412 524 deaths were recorded from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2014, in the United States. Of these, 19.4 million deaths were assigned garbage codes. Mortality rates were analyzed for 3110 counties or groups of counties. Large between-county disparities were evident for every cause, with the gap in age-standardized mortality rates between counties in the 90th and 10th percentiles varying from 14.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cirrhosis and chronic liver diseases) to 147.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cardiovascular diseases). Geographic regions with elevated mortality rates differed among causes: for example, cardiovascular disease mortality tended to be highest along the southern half of the Mississippi River, while mortality rates from self-harm and

  12. Should the decline in the personal saving rate be a cause for concern?

    OpenAIRE

    C. Alan Garner

    2006-01-01

    The personal saving rate has received particular attention recently because saving was negative in 2005 for the first time since the Great Depression. Although saving declined in other developed countries during this period, the U.S. decline was more pronounced than in most of these countries. ; A major concern is whether U.S. households are providing adequately for long-term needs, such as future retirement and medical expenses. In addition, low personal saving has created short-run concerns...

  13. Predicting functional decline and survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Mei-Lyn; Tan, Pei Fang; Holbrook, Joanna D

    2017-01-01

    Better predictors of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease course could enable smaller and more targeted clinical trials. Partially to address this aim, the Prize for Life foundation collected de-identified records from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis sufferers who participated in clinical trials of investigational drugs and made them available to researchers in the PRO-ACT database. In this study, time series data from PRO-ACT subjects were fitted to exponential models. Binary classes for decline in the total score of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale revised (ALSFRS-R) (fast/slow progression) and survival (high/low death risk) were derived. Data was segregated into training and test sets via cross validation. Learning algorithms were applied to the demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters in the training set to predict ALSFRS-R decline and the derived fast/slow progression and high/low death risk categories. The performance of predictive models was assessed by cross-validation in the test set using Receiver Operator Curves and root mean squared errors. A model created using a boosting algorithm containing the decline in four parameters (weight, alkaline phosphatase, albumin and creatine kinase) post baseline, was able to predict functional decline class (fast or slow) with fair accuracy (AUC = 0.82). However similar approaches to build a predictive model for decline class by baseline subject characteristics were not successful. In contrast, baseline values of total bilirubin, gamma glutamyltransferase, urine specific gravity and ALSFRS-R item score-climbing stairs were sufficient to predict survival class. Using combinations of small numbers of variables it was possible to predict classes of functional decline and survival across the 1-2 year timeframe available in PRO-ACT. These findings may have utility for design of future ALS clinical trials.

  14. Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A.G.; Santos, Armando J.B.; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C.; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Crowder, Andrew; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A.; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M.; Foley, Allen M.; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R.; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A.; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M.; Boulon, Ralf H.; Collazo, Jaime; Wershoven, Robert; Hernández, Vicente Guzmán; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A.B.; Metz, Tasha L.; Gordon, Amanda L.; Landry, Andre M.; Shaver, Donna J.; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Bethel, Thomas L.; Kenyon, Lory

    2017-01-01

    Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles – hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta – exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the strongest on record – combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study

  15. Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjorndal, Karen A; Bolten, Alan B; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B; Meylan, Peter A; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E; van Dam, Robert P; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M; Cherkiss, Michael S; Crowder, Andrew G; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M; Foley, Allen M; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M; Boulon, Ralf H; Collazo, Jaime A; Wershoven, Robert; Guzmán Hernández, Vicente; Stringell, Thomas B; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B; Broderick, Annette C; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta; Claydon, John A B; Metz, Tasha L; Gordon, Amanda L; Landry, Andre M; Shaver, Donna J; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J; Campbell, Cathi L; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Bethel, Thomas L; Kenyon, Lory

    2017-11-01

    Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the

  16. Age-dependent terminal declines in reproductive output in a wild bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martijn Hammers

    Full Text Available In many iteroparous species individual fitness components, such as reproductive output, first increase with age and then decline during late-life. However, individuals differ greatly in reproductive lifespan, but reproductive declines may only occur in the period just before their death as a result of an age-independent decline in physiological condition. To fully understand reproductive senescence it is important to investigate to what extent declines in late-life reproduction can be explained by age, time until death, or both. However, the study of late-life fitness performance in natural populations is challenging as the exact birth and death dates of individuals are often not known, and most individuals succumb to extrinsic mortality before reaching old age. Here, we used an exceptional long-term longitudinal dataset of individuals from a natural, closed, and predator-free population of the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis to investigate reproductive output, both in relation to age and to the time until the death of an individual (reverse-age approach. We observed an initial age-dependent increase in reproductive output that was followed by a decline in old age. However, we found no significant decline in reproductive output in the years directly preceding death. Although post-peak reproductive output declined with age, this pattern differed between terminal and non-terminal reproductive attempts, and the age-dependence of the terminal breeding attempt explained much of the variation in age-specific reproductive output. In fact, terminal declines in reproductive output were steeper in very old individuals. These results indicate that not only age-dependent, but also age-independent factors, such as physiological condition, need to be considered to understand reproductive senescence in wild-living animals.

  17. International comparisons of preterm birth: higher rates of late preterm birth are associated with lower rates of stillbirth and neonatal death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisonkova, S; Sabr, Y; Butler, B; Joseph, K S

    2012-12-01

    To examine international rates of preterm birth and potential associations with stillbirths and neonatal deaths at late preterm and term gestation. Ecological study. Canada, USA and 26 countries in Europe. All deliveries in 2004. Information on preterm birth (Statistics Canada, the EURO-PERISTAT project and the National Center for Health Statistics. Pearson correlation coefficients and random-intercept Poisson regression were used to examine the association between preterm birth rates and gestational age-specific stillbirth and neonatal death rates. Rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated after adjustment for maternal age, parity and multiple births. Stillbirths and neonatal deaths ≥ 32 and ≥ 37 weeks of gestation. International rates of preterm birth (births. Preterm birth rates at 32-36 weeks were inversely associated with stillbirths at ≥ 32 weeks (adjusted rate ratio 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.96) and ≥ 37 weeks (adjusted rate ratio 0.88, 95% CI 0.85-0.91) of gestation and inversely associated with neonatal deaths at ≥ 32 weeks (adjusted rate ratio 0.88, 95% CI 0.85-0.91) and ≥ 37 weeks (adjusted rate ratio 0.82, 95% CI 0.78-0.86) of gestation. Countries with high rates of preterm birth at 32-36 weeks of gestation have lower stillbirth and neonatal death rates at and beyond 32 weeks of gestation. Contemporary rates of preterm birth are indicators of both perinatal health and obstetric care services. © 2012 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2012 RCOG.

  18. Rates of TBI-related Deaths by Age Group - United States, 2001 - 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Changes in the rates of TBI-related deaths vary depending on age. For persons 44 years of age and younger, TBI-related deaths decreased between the periods of...

  19. Survey: Did the TFP Growth Rate in Japan Decline in the 1990s?(in Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    INUI Tomohiko; KWON Hyeog Ug

    2004-01-01

    This paper surveys the body of research grounded on a basic question "Did the total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate in Japan decline in the 1990s?" In addition, using industry-level data of the Japan Industrial Productivity Database (JIP database) we estimate the mark-ups and the degree of returns to scale and then re-estimate TFP growth rates. Most of studies reviewed in this paper show a decline in TFP growth in the 1990s at the macro-level and the industry-level. There are some studi...

  20. The birth rate decline in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robey, B

    1993-01-01

    Family planning programs historically have played an important role in providing information and counseling and supplying modern methods. Most programs are effective due to socioeconomic development and strong political support. Potential demand for services will be growing. This means that donor agencies must commit additional funding, and users must begin paying or paying more for contraceptives. Services and method choices need to be expanded, and quality of care needs to be improved. Three primary factors will impact on fertility decline: 1) the rate of social development, 2) the speed with which small family norms spread and contraception is adopted, and 3) the facility of private and public suppliers to meet contraceptive demand. Other factors influence reproductive decisions (women's roles and status, economic hardships or opportunities, religion, ethnicity, culture, and tradition). Contraceptive prevalence has increased from under 10% in the 1960s to 38% of all married, reproductive age women in the developing world, excluding China, which has contraceptive prevalence of 72%. Regional differences are wide. In Latin America, contraceptive use averages nearly 60% and ranges from over 50% in 10 countries and below 38% in Bolivia, Guatemala, and Haiti. Contraceptive prevalence is above average in Indonesia (50%), Sri Lanka (62%), and Thailand (68%) and just below average in Bangladesh (40%), India (45%), Philippines (34%), and Vietnam (53%). Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest prevalence, except for Zimbabwe (45%), Botswana (35%), and Kenya (27%). 80% of current users rely on modern methods. In most surveyed countries, 20-30% of married women have unmet demand. Fertility decline, unmet demand, and contraceptive use have all been affected by the diffusion of ideas about the use of family planning and the small family norm. Innovators are usually high status, educated women, who spread their views to other social groups or geographic areas. The spread can be rapid

  1. Increased planned delivery contributes to declining rates of pregnancy hypertension in Australia: a population-based record linkage study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christine L; Algert, Charles S; Morris, Jonathan M; Ford, Jane B

    2015-10-05

    Since the 1990s, pregnancy hypertension rates have declined in some countries, but not all. Increasing rates of early planned delivery (before the due date) have been hypothesised as the reason for the decline. The aim of this study was to explore whether early planned delivery can partly explain the declining pregnancy hypertension rates in Australia. Population-based record linkage study utilising linked birth and hospital records. A cohort of 1,076,122 deliveries in New South Wales, Australia, 2001-2012. Pregnancy hypertension (including gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia and eclampsia) was the main outcome; pre-eclampsia was a secondary outcome. From 2001 to 2012, pregnancy hypertension rates declined by 22%, from 9.9% to 7.7%, and pre-eclampsia by 27%, from 3.3% to 2.4% (trend prate was predicted to increase to 10.5%. Examination of annual gestational age distributions showed that pregnancy hypertension rates actually declined from 38 weeks gestation and were steepest from 41 weeks; at least 36% of the decrease could be attributed to planned deliveries. The risk factors for pregnancy hypertension were also risk factors for planned delivery. It appears that an unanticipated consequence of increasing early planned deliveries is a decline in the incidence of pregnancy hypertension. Women with risk factors for hypertension were relatively more likely to be selected for early delivery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  2. Trends in licit and illicit drug-related deaths in Florida from 2001 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Dayong; Delcher, Chris; Maldonado-Molina, Mildred M; Bazydlo, Lindsay A L; Thogmartin, Jon R; Goldberger, Bruce A

    2014-12-01

    Florida, the epicenter of the recent prescription drug epidemic in the United States, maintains a statewide drug mortality surveillance system. We evaluated yearly profiles, demographic characteristics, and correlation between drug trends to understand the factors influencing drug-induced mortality. All drug-related deaths reported to the Florida Medical Examiners Commission during 2001-2012 were included (n=92,596). A death was considered "drug-related" if at least one drug was identified in the decedent. Depending on its contribution to death, a drug could be listed as a causative agent or merely present, but not both. Rate of drug-caused deaths was 8.0 per 100,000 population in 2001, increasing to 17.0 in 2010 and then decreasing to 13.9 in 2012. Benzodiazepines had the highest mortality rate in 2010, although drugs. Opioid-caused mortality rate also peaked in 2010 and started to decline (-28%) in 2010-2012. The heroin-caused mortality rates were negatively correlated with opioids and benzodiazepines (ρ's ≥ -0.670; P≤0.034). Ethanol- and cocaine-mortality rates stabilized to 3.0-3.1 and 2.8-3.0 per 100,000 over 2009-2012, respectively. Amphetamines, zolpidem, and inhalants-caused deaths were on the rise with rates of ≤0.6 per 100,000. Overall declines in benzodiazepine- and opioid-caused deaths in 2011-2012 may have been related to Florida's attempts to regulate prescription drug abuse. This period, however, was also marked by a rise in heroin-caused mortality, which may reflect growing use of heroin as an alternative. Increases in amphetamines, zolpidem, and inhalants-induced mortality are an additional public health concern. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO2 by land and ocean sinks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raupach, M.R.; Gloor, M.; Sarmiento, J.L.; Gasser, T.

    2014-01-01

    Through 1959-2012, an airborne fraction (AF) of 0.44 of total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions remained in the atmosphere, with the rest being taken up by land and ocean CO 2 sinks. Understanding of this uptake is critical because it greatly alleviates the emissions reductions required for climate mitigation, and also reduces the risks and damages that adaptation has to embrace. An observable quantity that reflects sink properties more directly than the AF is the CO 2 sink rate (k S ), the combined land-ocean CO 2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO 2 above pre industrial levels. Here we show from observations that k S declined over 1959-2012 by a factor of about 1/3, implying that CO 2 sinks increased more slowly than excess CO 2 . Using a carbon-climate model, we attribute the decline in k S to four mechanisms: slower-than-exponential CO 2 emissions growth (35% of the trend), volcanic eruptions (25 %), sink responses to climate change (20 %), and nonlinear responses to increasing CO 2 , mainly oceanic (20 %). The first of these mechanisms is associated purely with the trajectory of extrinsic forcing, and the last two with intrinsic, feedback responses of sink processes to changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 . Our results suggest that the effects of these intrinsic, nonlinear responses are already detectable in the global carbon cycle. Although continuing future decreases in k S will occur under all plausible CO 2 emission scenarios, the rate of decline varies between scenarios in non intuitive ways because extrinsic and intrinsic mechanisms respond in opposite ways to changes in emissions: extrinsic mechanisms cause k S to decline more strongly with increasing mitigation, while intrinsic mechanisms cause k S to decline more strongly under high-emission, low-mitigation scenarios as the carbon-climate system is perturbed further from a near-linear regime. (authors)

  4. The impact of structural and functional characteristics of social relations as determinants of functional decline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Kirsten; Lund, Rikke; Holstein, Bjørn E

    2004-01-01

    ) and Glostrup (Denmark). The analyses are performed separately for men and women. Possible selection problems were considered by using three outcome measures: first, functional decline among the survivors (n = 425); second, functional decline, including death, assuming that death is part of a general decline...

  5. Trend and forecasting rate of cancer deaths at a public university hospital using univariate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, A.; Hassan, Noor I.

    2013-09-01

    Cancer is one of the principal causes of death in Malaysia. This study was performed to determine the pattern of rate of cancer deaths at a public hospital in Malaysia over an 11 year period from year 2001 to 2011, to determine the best fitted model of forecasting the rate of cancer deaths using Univariate Modeling and to forecast the rates for the next two years (2012 to 2013). The medical records of the death of patients with cancer admitted at this Hospital over 11 year's period were reviewed, with a total of 663 cases. The cancers were classified according to 10th Revision International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Data collected include socio-demographic background of patients such as registration number, age, gender, ethnicity, ward and diagnosis. Data entry and analysis was accomplished using SPSS 19.0 and Minitab 16.0. The five Univariate Models used were Naïve with Trend Model, Average Percent Change Model (ACPM), Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing and Holt's Method. The overall 11 years rate of cancer deaths showed that at this hospital, Malay patients have the highest percentage (88.10%) compared to other ethnic groups with males (51.30%) higher than females. Lung and breast cancer have the most number of cancer deaths among gender. About 29.60% of the patients who died due to cancer were aged 61 years old and above. The best Univariate Model used for forecasting the rate of cancer deaths is Single Exponential Smoothing Technique with alpha of 0.10. The forecast for the rate of cancer deaths shows a horizontally or flat value. The forecasted mortality trend remains at 6.84% from January 2012 to December 2013. All the government and private sectors and non-governmental organizations need to highlight issues on cancer especially lung and breast cancers to the public through campaigns using mass media, media electronics, posters and pamphlets in the attempt to decrease the rate of cancer deaths in Malaysia.

  6. Deaths related to lead poisoning in the United States, 1979-1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, R.B.; Staes, Catherine J.; Matte, Thomas D.

    2003-01-01

    This study was conducted to describe trends in US lead poisoning-relate deaths between 1979 and 1998. The predictive value of relevant ICD-9 codes was also evaluated. Multiple cause-of-death files were searched for record containing relevant ICD-9 codes, and underlying causes and demographic characteristics were assessed. For 1979-1988, death certificates were reviewed; lead source information was abstracted and accuracy of coding was determined. An estimated 200 lead poisoning-related deaths occurred from 1979 to 1998. Most were among males (74%), Blacks (67%), adults of age ≥45 years (76%), and Southerners (70%). The death rate was significantly lower in more recent years. An alcohol-related code was a contributing cause for 28% of adults. Only three of nine ICD-9 codes for lead poisoning were highl predictive of lead poisoning-related deaths. In conclusion, lead poisoning-related death rates have dropped dramatically since earlier decades and are continuing to decline. However, the findings imply that moonshine ingestion remains a source of high-dose lead exposure in adults

  7. The relationship of self-rated function and self-rated health to concurrent functional ability, functional decline, and mortality: findings from the Nun Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greiner, P A; Snowdon, D A; Greiner, L H

    1996-09-01

    We investigated the relationship of self-rated function (i.e., the ability to take care of oneself) and self-rated health to concurrent functional ability, functional decline, and mortality in participants in the Nun Study, a longitudinal study of aging and Alzheimer's disease. A total of 629 of the 678 study participants self-rated their function and health and completed an initial functional assessment in 1991-93. Survivors completed a second assessment in 1993-94. Overall, self-rated function had a stronger relationship to functional ability at the first assessment and to functional decline between the first and second assessments than did self-rated health. Self-rated function also had a stronger relationship to mortality than did self-rated health. Self-rated function may be a better marker of global function than is self-rated health and may be a useful addition to clinical assessment and scientific investigation of the relationships among function, health, and disease.

  8. Linking Changes in Contraceptive Use to Declines in Teen Pregnancy Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Manlove

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Using a unique microsimulation tool, Teen FamilyScape, the present study explores how changes in the mix of contraceptive methods used by teens contributed to the decline in the U.S. teen pregnancy rate between 2002 and 2010. Results indicate that changes in contraceptive use contributed to approximately half of the decline in the teen pregnancy rate during this time period (48% and that a little more than half of this “contraceptive effect” was due to an increase in teen condom use (58%. The remaining share of the contraceptive effect can be attributed to an increase in the use of more effective hormonal (pill, patch, ring and long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC/injectable methods (Intrauterine Devices (IUD, implant and injectable. Results from an additional counterfactual analysis suggest that the contraceptive effect was driven by the fact that the percentage of teens using no birth control fell during the study time period, rather than by the fact that some teens switched from less effective methods (condoms to more effective hormonal and LARC/injectable methods. However, very high typical use failure rates for teen condom users suggest the need for a two-pronged approach for continuing reductions in teen pregnancy for sexually active teens: first, targeting the youth most at risk of not using contraception and helping them choose contraception, and second, increasing the effectiveness of method use among existing contraceptors.

  9. Heart Disease Death Rates Among Blacks and Whites Aged ≥35 Years — United States, 1968–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyke, Miriam; Greer, Sophia; Odom, Erika; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Kramer, Michael; Casper, Michele

    2018-01-01

    Problem/Condition Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. In 2015, heart disease accounted for approximately 630,000 deaths, representing one in four deaths in the United States. Although heart disease death rates decreased 68% for the total population from 1968 to 2015, marked disparities in decreases exist by race and state. Period Covered 1968–2015. Description of System The National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) data on deaths in the United States were abstracted for heart disease using diagnosis codes from the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10) for 1968–2015. Population estimates were obtained from NVSS files. National and state-specific heart disease death rates for the total population and by race for adults aged ≥35 years were calculated for 1968–2015. National and state-specific black-white heart disease mortality ratios also were calculated. Death rates were age standardized to the 2000 U.S. standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to perform time trend analyses. Results From 1968 to 2015, heart disease death rates decreased for the total U.S. population among adults aged ≥35 years, from 1,034.5 to 327.2 per 100,000 population, respectively, with variations in the magnitude of decreases by race and state. Rates decreased for the total population an average of 2.4% per year, with greater average decreases among whites (2.4% per year) than blacks (2.2% per year). At the national level, heart disease death rates for blacks and whites were similar at the start of the study period (1968) but began to diverge in the late 1970s, when rates for blacks plateaued while rates for whites continued to decrease. Heart disease death rates among blacks remained higher than among whites for the remainder of the study period. Nationwide, the black-white ratio of heart disease death rates increased from 1.04 in 1968 to 1.21 in 2015, with large increases

  10. Changes in mortality rates and causes of death in a population-based cohort of persons living with and without HIV from 1996 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyawo, Oghenowede; Franco-Villalobos, Conrado; Hull, Mark W; Nohpal, Adriana; Samji, Hasina; Sereda, Paul; Lima, Viviane D; Shoveller, Jeannie; Moore, David; Montaner, Julio S G; Hogg, Robert S

    2017-02-27

    Non-HIV/AIDS-related diseases are gaining prominence as important causes of morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV. The purpose of this study was to characterize and compare changes over time in mortality rates and causes of death among a population-based cohort of persons living with and without HIV in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We analysed data from the Comparative Outcomes And Service Utilization Trends (COAST) study; a retrospective population-based study created via linkage between the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS and Population Data BC, and containing data for HIV-infected individuals and the general population of BC, respectively. Our analysis included all known HIV-infected adults (≥ 20 years) in BC and a random 10% sample of uninfected BC adults followed from 1996 to 2012. Deaths were identified through Population Data BC - which contains information on all registered deaths in BC (BC Vital Statistics Agency dataset) and classified into cause of death categories using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 9/10 codes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and mortality rate ratios were calculated. Trend test were performed. 3401 (25%), and 47,647 (9%) individuals died during the 5,620,150 person-years of follow-up among 13,729 HIV-infected and 510,313 uninfected individuals, respectively. All-cause and cause-specific mortality rates were consistently higher among HIV-infected compared to HIV-negative individuals, except for neurological disorders. All-cause ASMR decreased from 126.75 (95% CI: 84.92-168.57) per 1000 population in 1996 to 21.29 (95% CI: 17.79-24.79) in 2011-2012 (83% decline; p ASMR reductions were also observed for hepatic/liver disease and drug abuse/overdose deaths. ASMRs for neurological disorders increased significantly over time. Non-AIDS-defining cancers are currently the leading non-HIV/AIDS-related cause of death in both HIV-infected and uninfected individuals. Despite the significant

  11. System care improves trauma outcome: patient care errors dominate reduced preventable death rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thoburn, E; Norris, P; Flores, R; Goode, S; Rodriguez, E; Adams, V; Campbell, S; Albrink, M; Rosemurgy, A

    1993-01-01

    A review of 452 trauma deaths in Hillsborough County, Florida, in 1984 documented that 23% of non-CNS trauma deaths were preventable and occurred because of inadequate resuscitation or delay in proper surgical care. In late 1988 Hillsborough County organized a County Trauma Agency (HCTA) to coordinate trauma care among prehospital providers and state-designated trauma centers. The purpose of this study was to review county trauma deaths after the inception of the HCTA to determine the frequency of preventable deaths. 504 trauma deaths occurring between October 1989 and April 1991 were reviewed. Through committee review, 10 deaths were deemed preventable; 2 occurred outside the trauma system. Of the 10 deaths, 5 preventable deaths occurred late in severely injured patients. The preventable death rate has decreased to 7.0% with system care. The causes of preventable deaths have changed from delayed or inadequate intervention to postoperative care errors.

  12. The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO2 by land and ocean sinks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Raupach

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Through 1959–2012, an airborne fraction (AF of 0.44 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere, with the rest being taken up by land and ocean CO2 sinks. Understanding of this uptake is critical because it greatly alleviates the emissions reductions required for climate mitigation, and also reduces the risks and damages that adaptation has to embrace. An observable quantity that reflects sink properties more directly than the AF is the CO2 sink rate (kS, the combined land–ocean CO2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO2 above preindustrial levels. Here we show from observations that kS declined over 1959–2012 by a factor of about 1 / 3, implying that CO2 sinks increased more slowly than excess CO2. Using a carbon–climate model, we attribute the decline in kS to four mechanisms: slower-than-exponential CO2 emissions growth (~ 35% of the trend, volcanic eruptions (~ 25%, sink responses to climate change (~ 20%, and nonlinear responses to increasing CO2, mainly oceanic (~ 20%. The first of these mechanisms is associated purely with the trajectory of extrinsic forcing, and the last two with intrinsic, feedback responses of sink processes to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2. Our results suggest that the effects of these intrinsic, nonlinear responses are already detectable in the global carbon cycle. Although continuing future decreases in kS will occur under all plausible CO2 emission scenarios, the rate of decline varies between scenarios in non-intuitive ways because extrinsic and intrinsic mechanisms respond in opposite ways to changes in emissions: extrinsic mechanisms cause kS to decline more strongly with increasing mitigation, while intrinsic mechanisms cause kS to decline more strongly under high-emission, low-mitigation scenarios as the carbon–climate system is perturbed further from a near-linear regime.

  13. Epidermal cell death in frogs with chytridiomycosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura A. Brannelly

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background Amphibians are declining at an alarming rate, and one of the major causes of decline is the infectious disease chytridiomycosis. Parasitic fungal sporangia occur within epidermal cells causing epidermal disruption, but these changes have not been well characterised. Apoptosis (planned cell death can be a damaging response to the host but may alternatively be a mechanism of pathogen removal for some intracellular infections. Methods In this study we experimentally infected two endangered amphibian species Pseudophryne corroboree and Litoria verreauxii alpina with the causal agent of chytridiomycosis. We quantified cell death in the epidermis through two assays: terminal transferase-mediated dUTP nick end-labelling (TUNEL and caspase 3/7. Results Cell death was positively associated with infection load and morbidity of clinically infected animals. In infected amphibians, TUNEL positive cells were concentrated in epidermal layers, correlating to the localisation of infection within the skin. Caspase activity was stable and low in early infection, where pathogen loads were light but increasing. In animals that recovered from infection, caspase activity gradually returned to normal as the infection cleared. Whereas, in amphibians that did not recover, caspase activity increased dramatically when infection loads peaked. Discussion Increased cell death may be a pathology of the fungal parasite, likely contributing to loss of skin homeostatic functions, but it is also possible that apoptosis suppression may be used initially by the pathogen to help establish infection. Further research should explore the specific mechanisms of cell death and more specifically apoptosis regulation during fungal infection.

  14. Aquaporin 5 polymorphisms and rate of lung function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia N Hansel

    Full Text Available RATIONALE: Aquaporin-5 (AQP5 can cause mucus overproduction and lower lung function. Genetic variants in the AQP5 gene might be associated with rate of lung function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. METHODS: Five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in AQP5 were genotyped in 429 European American individuals with COPD randomly selected from the NHLBI Lung Health Study. Mean annual decline in FEV(1 % predicted, assessed over five years, was calculated as a linear regression slope, adjusting for potential covariates and stratified by smoking status. Constructs containing the wildtype allele and risk allele of the coding SNP N228K were generated using site-directed mutagenesis, and transfected into HBE-16 (human bronchial epithelial cell line. AQP5 abundance and localization were assessed by immunoblots and confocal immunofluorescence under control, shear stress and cigarette smoke extract (CSE 10% exposed conditions to test for differential expression or localization. RESULTS: Among continuous smokers, three of the five SNPs tested showed significant associations (0.02>P>0.004 with rate of lung function decline; no associations were observed among the group of intermittent or former smokers. Haplotype tests revealed multiple association signals (0.012>P>0.0008 consistent with the single-SNP results. In HBE16 cells, shear stress and CSE led to a decrease in AQP5 abundance in the wild-type, but not in the N228K AQP5 plasmid. CONCLUSIONS: Polymorphisms in AQP5 were associated with rate of lung function decline in continuous smokers with COPD. A missense mutation modulates AQP-5 expression in response to cigarette smoke extract and shear stress. These results suggest that AQP5 may be an important candidate gene for COPD.

  15. The fall in the rate of death from heart diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bemski, G.

    1983-01-01

    A self limiting interaction between heart disease producing factors and genetic factors is postulated. Such an interaction could be responsable for the fall in rate of death from ischemic disease observed in the United States. (Author) [pt

  16. Radiation-induced inheritable changes in the death-rate of cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bychkovskaya, I.B.; Ochinskaya, G.K.

    1980-01-01

    By the use of an original technique (regeneration of individual lines from sister cells) it was demonstrated on various individually cultivated protozoa (Amoeba proteus, Paramecium caudatum and Climacostomum virens) that even weak direct and indirect radiation effects can induce an appreciable increase in the death-rate of descendants. After a certain dose threshold, the effect did not depend on the power of the attack and remained at the same level for as long as 3 years. The observed changes were qualitatively different from known types of inheritable changes leading to cell death

  17. Impact of socioeconomic deprivation on rate and cause of death in severe mental illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Julie Langan; McLean, Gary; Park, John; Martin, Daniel J; Connolly, Moira; Mercer, Stewart W; Smith, Daniel J

    2014-09-12

    Socioeconomic status has important associations with disease-specific mortality in the general population. Although individuals with Severe Mental Illnesses (SMI) experience significant premature mortality, the relationship between socioeconomic status and mortality in this group remains under investigated. We aimed to assess the impact of socioeconomic status on rate and cause of death in individuals with SMI (schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) relative to the local (Glasgow) and wider (Scottish) populations. Cause and age of death during 2006-2010 inclusive for individuals with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder registered on the Glasgow Psychosis Clinical Information System (PsyCIS) were obtained by linkage to the Scottish General Register Office (GRO). Rate and cause of death by socioeconomic status, measured by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), were compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations. Death rates were higher in people with SMI across all socioeconomic quintiles compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations, and persisted when suicide was excluded. Differences were largest in the most deprived quintile (794.6 per 10,000 population vs. 274.7 and 252.4 for Glasgow and Scotland respectively). Cause of death varied by socioeconomic status. For those living in the most deprived quintile, higher drug-related deaths occurred in those with SMI compared to local Glasgow and wider Scottish population rates (12.3% vs. 5.9%, p = socioeconomic quintiles compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations but was most marked in the most deprived quintiles when suicide was excluded as a cause of death. Further work assessing the impact of socioeconomic status on specific causes of premature mortality in SMI is needed.

  18. Language Death: A Freirean Solution in the Heart of the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilherme, Alex

    2013-01-01

    "Language death" is an undeniable phenomenon of our modern times as languages have started to disappear at an alarming rate. This has led linguists, anthropologists, philosophers and educationists to engage with this issue at various levels in an attempt to try to understand the decline in this rich area of human communication and…

  19. Reexamining the association between child access prevention gun laws and unintentional shooting deaths of children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, D W; Starnes, M

    2000-12-01

    A previous study estimated that child access prevention (CAP) laws, which hold adults criminally liable for unsafe firearm storage in the environment of children, were associated with a 23% decline in unintentional firearm mortality rates among children. To reassess the effects of CAP laws and more fully examine the consistency of the estimated law effects across states. A pooled time-series study of unintentional firearm mortality among children from 1979 through 1997. Setting. The 50 states and the District of Columbia. All children laws enacted before 1998 were aggregated, the laws were associated with a 17% decline unintentional firearm death rates among children. The laws' effects were not equal across states. Florida's CAP law was associated with a 51% decline; however, there were no statistically significant aggregate or state-specific law effects in the other 14 states with CAP laws. Florida's CAP law-1 of only 3 such laws allowing felony prosecution of violators-appears to have significantly reduced unintentional firearm deaths to children. However, there is no evidence of effects in the other 14 states with CAP laws.

  20. Value of FDG-PET scans of non-demented patients in predicting rates of future cognitive and functional decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torosyan, Nare; Mason, Kelsey; Dahlbom, Magnus; Silverman, Daniel H.S.

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in predicting subsequent rates of functional and cognitive decline among subjects considered cognitively normal (CN) or clinically diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Analyses of 276 subjects, 92 CN subjects and 184 with MCI, who were enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, were conducted. Functional decline was assessed using scores on the Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ) obtained over a period of 36 months, while cognitive decline was determined using the Alzheimer's disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. PET images were analyzed using clinically routine brain quantification software. A dementia prognosis index (DPI), derived from a ratio of uptake values in regions of interest known to be hypometabolic in Alzheimer's disease to regions known to be stable, was generated for each baseline FDG-PET scan. The DPI was correlated with change in scores on the neuropsychological examinations to examine the predictive value of baseline FDG-PET. DPI powerfully predicted rate of functional decline among MCI patients (t = 5.75, p < 1.0E-8) and pooled N + MCI patient groups (t = 7.02, p < 1.0E-11). Rate of cognitive decline on MMSE was also predicted by the DPI among MCI (t = 6.96, p < 1.0E-10) and pooled N + MCI (t = 8.78, p < 5.0E-16). Rate of cognitive decline on ADAS-cog was powerfully predicted by the DPI alone among N (p < 0.001), MCI (t = 6.46, p < 1.0E-9) and for pooled N + MCI (t = 8.85, p = 1.1E-16). These findings suggest that an index, derivable from automated regional analysis of brain PET scans, can be used to help predict rates of functional and cognitive deterioration in the years following baseline PET. (orig.)

  1. Value of FDG-PET scans of non-demented patients in predicting rates of future cognitive and functional decline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torosyan, Nare; Mason, Kelsey; Dahlbom, Magnus; Silverman, Daniel H.S. [David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California Los Angeles, Ahmanson Translational Imaging Division, Department of Molecular and Medical Pharmacology, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Collaboration: the Alzheimer' sDisease Neuroimaging Initiative

    2017-08-15

    The aim of this study was to examine the value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in predicting subsequent rates of functional and cognitive decline among subjects considered cognitively normal (CN) or clinically diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Analyses of 276 subjects, 92 CN subjects and 184 with MCI, who were enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, were conducted. Functional decline was assessed using scores on the Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ) obtained over a period of 36 months, while cognitive decline was determined using the Alzheimer's disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. PET images were analyzed using clinically routine brain quantification software. A dementia prognosis index (DPI), derived from a ratio of uptake values in regions of interest known to be hypometabolic in Alzheimer's disease to regions known to be stable, was generated for each baseline FDG-PET scan. The DPI was correlated with change in scores on the neuropsychological examinations to examine the predictive value of baseline FDG-PET. DPI powerfully predicted rate of functional decline among MCI patients (t = 5.75, p < 1.0E-8) and pooled N + MCI patient groups (t = 7.02, p < 1.0E-11). Rate of cognitive decline on MMSE was also predicted by the DPI among MCI (t = 6.96, p < 1.0E-10) and pooled N + MCI (t = 8.78, p < 5.0E-16). Rate of cognitive decline on ADAS-cog was powerfully predicted by the DPI alone among N (p < 0.001), MCI (t = 6.46, p < 1.0E-9) and for pooled N + MCI (t = 8.85, p = 1.1E-16). These findings suggest that an index, derivable from automated regional analysis of brain PET scans, can be used to help predict rates of functional and cognitive deterioration in the years following baseline PET. (orig.)

  2. The decline in winter excess mortality in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kunst, A. E.; Looman, C. W.; Mackenbach, J. P.

    1991-01-01

    In most countries, numbers of deaths rise considerably during the winter season. This winter excess in mortality has, however, been declining during recent decades. The causes of this decline are hardly known. This paper attempts to derive a number of hypotheses on the basis of a detailed

  3. Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

    2013-09-01

    To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

  4. Whole-brain atrophy rate and cognitive decline: longitudinal MR study of memory clinic patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluimer, J.D.; van der Flier, W.M.; Karas, G.B.; Fox, N.C.; Scheltens, P.; Barkhof, F.; Vrenken, H.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: To prospectively determine whole-brain atrophy rate in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer disease (AD) and its association with cognitive decline, and investigate the risk of progression to dementia in initially non-demented patients given baseline brain volume and whole-brain

  5. Characteristics of visiting nurse agencies with high home death rates: A prefecture-wide study in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashiwagi, Masayo; Tamiya, Nanako; Murata, Masako

    2015-08-01

    The purpose of the present study was to identify characteristics of visiting nurse agencies (VNA) in Japan with high home death rates by a prefecture-wide survey. A cross-sectional study of visiting nurse agencies (n = 101) in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, was completed. Data included the basic characteristics of each VNA, the type of services provided, level of coordination with other service providers, total number of VNA patients who died per year and place of death and contractual relationship with home-care supporting clinics providing end-of-life care services in the home 24 h a day. The VNA characteristics were analyzed by logistic regression, using the home death rate per VNA as a dependent variable. A total 69 agencies, excluding those that did not report number of deaths (n = 14) and those without deaths during the year (n = 6), were analyzed. The median home death rate of the 69 VNA was 29.8%. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that higher home death rate was significantly associated with lack of attachment to a hospital, existence of a contractual relationship with home-care supporting clinics and existence of an interactive information exchange through telephone/face-to-face communication with attending physicians. In order to increase the home death rate of people using VNA, policymakers must consider establishing home-based service systems within the community that can provide home end-of-life care services 24 h a day, and support the interactive exchange of information between the visiting nurse and the attending physician. © 2014 The Authors. Geriatrics & Gerontology International published by Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd on behalf of Japanese Geriatrics Society.

  6. Mathematical modelling of the death rate dynamics in mammals with intestinal form of radiation sicleness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smirnova, O.A.

    1990-01-01

    A mathematical models has been developed to describe the death rate dynamics in irradiated mammals. The model links statistical biometric functions with statistical and dynamic characteristics of the organism's 'critical' system. There is an agreement between the results of modelling and experiments with respect to death rate dynamics of small laboratory animals subjected to acute and chronic irradiation with doses and dose-rates at which small intestine epithelium is 'ctitical'

  7. Air pollution and forest decline in central Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandler, O.; Innes, J.L. [University of Munich, Munich (Germany). Institute of Botany

    1995-12-31

    The term `Waldsterben` was introduced in the early 1980s to describe the progressive death of forests that was believed to be occurring in Central Europe as a result of air pollution. Subsequent surveys and investigations have failed to confirm that forests are dying or are even declining over large areas of Central Europe. Foliar injury by air pollutants, together with mortality, has occurred, but is generally restricted to specific locations in the Czech Republic and in eastern Germany. Where foliar damage has been recorded, it can often be attributed to high concentrations of sulphur dioxide, often acting in combination with other stresses (e.g. frost or insects). Outside areas affected by local sources of pollution, there is little, if any, evidence that the crown condition of trees has been adversely affected by pollution over large areas. Instead, climate appears to have a major effect on the crown condition and growth of trees. Measurements and surveys have revealed a very different picture to that forecasted in the mid-1980s. Growth rates of trees and stands in Central Europe are currently higher than have been recorded at any time in the past. Although declines in individual species in specific areas have been recorded, past records indicate that these do not represent a new phenomenon. Consequently, the terms `Waldsterben` (forest deaths) and `neuartige Waldschaden` (novel type of forest damages) should not be used in the context of the phenomenon reported in Central Europe in the 1980s. Instead different problems should be described separately and the term forest decline used only when there is clear evidence of a general deterioration in the condition of all tree species within a forest.

  8. Changes in mortality rates and humanitarian conditions in Darfur, Sudan 2003-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfield, Richard; Polonsky, Jonny

    2010-01-01

    The Darfur region of Sudan has been an intense focus of humanitarian concern since rebellions began there early in 2003. In 2004, the US Secretary of State declared that conflict in Darfur represented genocide. Since 2003, many sample surveys and various mortality estimates for Darfur have been made. Nonetheless, confusion and controversy surrounding mortality levels and trends have continued. For this project, results were reviewed from the highest quality field surveys on mortality in Darfur conducted between 2003 and 2008. Trend analysis demonstrated a dramatic decline in mortality over time in Darfur. By 2005, mortality levels had fallen below emergency levels and have continued to decline. Deaths directly due violence have declined as a proportion of all of the deaths in Darfur. Declining mortality in Darfur was not associated with other proximate improvements in well-being, such as improved nutrition. Without large-scale, humanitarian intervention, continuing high rates of mortality due to violence likely would have occurred. If mortality had continued at the high rate documented in 2004, by January 2009, there would have been 330,000 additional deaths. With the humanitarian assistance provided through the United Nations and non-governmental organizations, these people are alive today. A focus on excess deaths among noncombatants may draw attention away from other needs, such as establishing better security, improving service delivery to the displaced, and advocating for internally displaced persons to be reached today and to re-establish their lives and livelihoods tomorrow.

  9. What's behind the Good News: The Decline in Teen Pregnancy Rates during the 1990s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanigan, Christine

    Noting that rates of teen pregnancies and births have declined over the past decade, this analysis examined how much of the progress is due to fewer teens having sex and how much to lower rates of pregnancy among sexually active teens. The analysis drew on data from the federal government's National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), a large,…

  10. Multiyear drought-induced morbidity preceding tree death in southeastern U.S. forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdanier, Aaron B; Clark, James S

    2016-01-01

    Recent forest diebacks, combined with threats of future drought, focus attention on the extent to which tree death is caused by catastrophic events as opposed to chronic declines in health that accumulate over years. While recent attention has focused on large-scale diebacks, there is concern that increasing drought stress and chronic morbidity may have pervasive impacts on forest composition in many regions. Here we use long-term, whole-stand inventory data from southeastern U.S. forests to show that trees exposed to drought experience multiyear declines in growth prior to mortality. Following a severe, multiyear drought, 72% of trees that did not recover their pre-drought growth rates died within 10 yr. This pattern was mediated by local moisture availability. As an index of morbidity prior to death, we calculated the difference in cumulative growth after drought relative to surviving conspecifics. The strength of drought-induced morbidity varied among species and was correlated with drought tolerance. These findings support the ability of trees to avoid death during drought events but indicate shifts that could occur over decades. Tree mortality following drought is predictable in these ecosystems based on growth declines, highlighting an opportunity to address multiyear drought-induced morbidity in models, experiments, and management decisions.

  11. Demographic trade-offs in a neutral model explain death-rate--abundance-rank relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Kui; Zhang, Da-Yong; He, Fangliang

    2009-01-01

    The neutral theory of biodiversity has been criticized for its neglect of species differences. Yet it is much less heeded that S. P. Hubbell's definition of neutrality allows species to differ in their birth and death rates as long as they have an equal per capita fitness. Using the lottery model of competition we find that fitness equalization through birth-death trade-offs can make species coexist longer than expected for demographically identical species, whereas the probability of monodominance for a species under zero-sum neutral dynamics is equal to its initial relative abundance. Furthermore, if newly arising species in a community survive preferentially they are more likely to slip through the quagmire of rareness, thus creating a strong selective bias favoring their community membership. On the other hand, high-mortality species, once having gained a footing in the community, are more likely to become abundant due to their compensatory high birth rates. This unexpected result explains why a positive association between species abundance and per capita death rate can be seen in tropical-forest communities. An explicit incorporation of interspecific trade-offs between birth and death into the neutral theory increases the theory's realism as well as its predictive power.

  12. Hungarian Population Discourses in the Twentieth Century: The Problem of Declining Birth Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Ildikó Szántó

    2016-01-01

    Falling birth rates had already been recorded as early as the late-eighteenth century in south-western Hungary in the Ormánság. Population loss from low birth rate remained one of the main topics writers and sociologists focused on in the twentieth century. The issue of Hungarian population decline was highlighted among the social ills in the interwar period, which was one of several subjects that divided intellectuals into ‘populists’ and ‘urbanites’. Following the impact of the low birth ra...

  13. Decline of the relative risk of death associated with low employment grade at older age: the impact of age related differences in smoking, blood pressure and plasma cholesterol

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marang-van de Mheen, P. J.; Shipley, M. J.; Witteman, J. C.; Marmot, M. G.; Gunning-Schepers, L. J.

    2001-01-01

    To explore whether the observed age related decline in the relative risk of death associated with low employment grade can be explained by the profiles of smoking, blood pressure and plasma cholesterol changing differently with age between the employment grades. Prospective cohort study with 25

  14. Glomerular filtration rate and functional decline in an acute geriatric unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ocampo Chaparro, José Mauricio

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Low estimated Glomerular filtration rate (eGFR is associated with functional decline. Little is known on that association in hospitalized elderly. Objective: Determine if low eGFR is associated with functional decline. Methods: Prospective cohort study that included 1826 patients 60 years and older hospitalized in a Geriatric Acute Unit, admitted between January 2012 and August 2015. The outcome was functional status assessed four times by the Barthel Index (BI. Kidney function was estimated by MDRD-4 IDMS and was grouped into four categories according to eGFR (normal ≥90, mild 60-89, moderate 59-30, severe <30. Multivariate logistic regression models and GLIMMIX procedure for longitudinal analyzes were used. Results: Mean age was 82.3±7.2 years, 51 % were women. In multivariate logistic regression, a BI≤60 at admission was associated with age ≥80, female gender, high comorbidity, social deterioration, hypoalbuminemia, anemia, MMSE<19, while the presence of mild or moderate renal failure reduced this risk. In the longitudinal analysis, lower total BI at follow-up was associated with age ≥80, female gender, social deterioration, hospital stay ≥15 days, high comorbidity, hypoalbuminemia, MMSE<19. The presence of mild, moderate or severe renal impairment was associated with higher BI over time. Conclusions: A low eGFR was associated with lower risk for functional decline at admission and overtime. These findings differ from previous reports in the literature.

  15. Sudden deaths and colony population decline in Greek honey bee colonies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacandritsos, N; Granato, A; Budge, G; Papanastasiou, I; Roinioti, E; Caldon, M; Falcaro, C; Gallina, A; Mutinelli, F

    2010-11-01

    During June and July of 2009, sudden deaths, tremulous movements and population declines of adult honey bees were reported by the beekeepers in the region of Peloponnesus (Mt. Mainalo), Greece. A preliminary study was carried out to investigate these unexplained phenomena in this region. In total, 37 bee samples, two brood frames containing honey bee brood of various ages, eight sugar samples and four sugar patties were collected from the affected colonies. The samples were tested for a range of pests, pathogens and pesticides. Symptomatic adult honey bees tested positive for Varroa destructor, Nosema ceranae, Chronic bee paralysis virus (CBPV), Acute paralysis virus (ABPV), Deformed wing virus (DWV), Sacbrood virus (SBV) and Black queen cell virus (BQCV), but negative for Acarapis woodi. American Foulbrood was absent from the brood samples. Chemical analysis revealed that amitraz, thiametoxan, clothianidin and acetamiprid were all absent from symptomatic adult bees, sugar and sugar patty samples. However, some bee samples, were contaminated with imidacloprid in concentrations between 14 ng/g and 39 ng/g tissue. We present: the infection of Greek honey bees by multiple viruses; the presence of N. ceranae in Greek honey bees and the first record of imidacloprid (neonicotonoid) residues in Greek honey bee tissues. The presence of multiple pathogens and pesticides made it difficult to associate a single specific cause to the depopulation phenomena observed in Greece, although we believe that viruses and N. ceranae synergistically played the most important role. A follow-up in-depth survey across all Greek regions is required to provide context to these preliminary findings. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Calculating economy-wide energy intensity decline rate: The role of sectoral output and energy shares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baksi, Soham; Green, Chris

    2007-01-01

    We specify formulas for computing the rate of decline in economy-wide energy intensity by aggregating its two determinants-technical efficiency improvements in the various sectors of the economy, and shifts in economic activity among these sectors. The formulas incorporate the interdependence between sectoral shares, and establish a one-to-one relation between sectoral output and energy shares. This helps to eliminate future energy intensity decline scenarios which involve implausible values of either sectoral share. An illustrative application of the formulas is provided, using within-sector efficiency improvement estimates suggested by Lightfoot-Green and Harvey

  17. Death of a child and parental wellbeing in old age: Evidence from Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chioun; Glei, Dana A.; Weinstein, Maxine; Goldman, Noreen

    2014-01-01

    The death of a child is one of the most traumatic events that a parent can experience. The psychological and physical consequences of bereavement are well established, and the consequences are more severe for mothers than fathers. However, little is known about how the death of an adult child affects parental wellbeing in old age or how the deceased child’s sex may moderate the association. We use data from the Taiwanese Longitudinal Study of Aging (TLSA) to investigate how the death of a son or a daughter differentially affects the wellbeing of older parents, measured by depressive symptoms and self-rated health. We find that for mothers, a son’s death is associated with an increase in depressive symptoms and a decline in self-rated health, but fathers’ health is not adversely affected by a son’s death. There is little evidence that a daughter’s death has a negative effect on either maternal or paternal wellbeing. We situate these findings within their social and cultural contexts and discuss social policies that would reduce gender and health inequality. PMID:24054310

  18. Death of a child and parental wellbeing in old age: evidence from Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chioun; Glei, Dana A; Weinstein, Maxine; Goldman, Noreen

    2014-01-01

    The death of a child is one of the most traumatic events that a parent can experience. The psychological and physical consequences of bereavement are well established, and the consequences are more severe for mothers than fathers. However, little is known about how the death of an adult child affects parental wellbeing in old age or how the deceased child's sex may moderate the association. We use data from the Taiwanese Longitudinal Study of Aging (TLSA) to investigate how the death of a son or a daughter differentially affects the wellbeing of older parents, measured by depressive symptoms and self-rated health. We find that for mothers, a son's death is associated with an increase in depressive symptoms and a decline in self-rated health, but fathers' health is not adversely affected by a son's death. There is little evidence that a daughter's death has a negative effect on either maternal or paternal wellbeing. We situate these findings within their social and cultural contexts and discuss social policies that would reduce gender and health inequality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Reducing neonatal deaths in South Africa: Progress and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N Rhoda

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Although current levels of the neonatal mortality rate (NMR are within reach of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG target of 12 per 1 000 live births, the absolute number of deaths is unacceptably high for a lower-middle-income country such as South Africa (SA. Neonatal mortality over the last decade has declined very slowly, and is not commensurate with the level of government investment in healthcare. The recent neonatal mortality rate of 21 per 1 000 live births reported by the SA Demographic Health Survey is of major concern. This paper reviews recent efforts to reduce the neonatal mortality rate, including support for the implementation of neonatal policies and plans, and strengthening programmes to deliver low-cost, high-impact interventions. We review recent estimates of the NMR and causes of neonatal deaths, and discuss how the mortality from preventable causes of death could be reduced. If SA is to meet the SDG target, special attention should be given to the availability of high-impact interventions, providing an adequate number of appropriately trained healthcare providers and a more active role played by ward-based community health workers and district clinical specialist teams.

  20. Association of High-Dose Ibuprofen Use, Lung Function Decline, and Long-Term Survival in Children with Cystic Fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konstan, Michael W; VanDevanter, Donald R; Sawicki, Gregory S; Pasta, David J; Foreman, Aimee J; Neiman, Evgueni A; Morgan, Wayne J

    2018-04-01

    Cystic fibrosis deaths result primarily from lung function loss, so chronic respiratory therapies, intended to preserve lung function, are cornerstones of cystic fibrosis care. Although treatment-associated reduction in rate of lung function loss should ultimately improve cystic fibrosis survival, no such relationship has been described for any chronic cystic fibrosis therapy. In part, this is because the ages of most rapid lung function decline-early adolescence-precede the median age of cystic fibrosis deaths by more than a decade. To study associations of high-dose ibuprofen treatment with the rate of forced expiratory volume in 1 second decline and mortality among children followed in the Epidemiologic Study of Cystic Fibrosis and subsequently in the U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry. We performed a matched cohort study using data from Epidemiologic Study of Cystic Fibrosis. Exposure was defined as high-dose ibuprofen use reported at ≥80% of encounters over 2 years. Unexposed children were matched to exposed children 5:1 using propensity scores on the basis of demographic, clinical, and treatment covariates. The rate of decline of percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second during the 2-year follow-up period was estimated by mixed-effects modeling with random slopes and intercepts. Survival over 16 follow-up years in the U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry was compared between treatment groups by using proportional hazards modeling controlling for matching and covariates. We included 775 high-dose ibuprofen users and 3,665 nonusers who were well matched on demographic, clinical, and treatment variables. High-dose ibuprofen users declined on average 1.10 percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second/yr (95% confidence interval; 0.51, 1.69) during the 2-year treatment period, whereas nonusers declined at a rate of 1.76% percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second/yr (95% confidence interval; 1.48, 2

  1. The decline of infant and child mortality among Spanish Gitanos or Calé (1871−2005: A microdemographic study in Andalusia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan F. Gamella

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Most Romani groups in Europe have experienced a decline in childhood mortality during recent decades. These crucial transformations are rarely addressed in research or public policy. Objective: This paper analyzes the timing and structure of the decline of childhood mortality among the Gitano people of Spain. Methods: The paper is based on the family and genealogy reconstitution of the Gitano population of 22 contiguous localities in Southern Spain. Registry data from over 19,100 people and 3,501 reconstituted families was included in a dense genealogical grid ranging over 150 years. From this database we produced annual time series of infant and child mortality and of the registered causes of death from 1871 to 2005. Results: The analyzed data shows a rapid decline in infant and child mortality from about 1949 to 1970. The onset of the definitive decline occurred in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Child mortality was higher in the pre-transitional period and started to decline earlier, although it took longer to converge with majority rates. The mortality transition in the Gitano minority paralleled that of the dominant majority, but with important delays and higher mortality rates. The causes of death show the deprivation suffered by Gitano people. Conclusions: The childhood mortality decline facilitated the most important changes experienced recently by the Gitano minority, including its fertility transition and the transformation of Gitanos' gender and family systems. Contribution: This is one of the first historical reconstructions of the mortality transition of a Romani population.

  2. Decline of Ohia (Metrosideros polymorpha) in Hawaii: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles S. Hodges; Ken T. Adee; John D. Stein; Hulton B. Wood; Robert D. Doty

    1986-01-01

    Portions of the ohia (Metrosideros polymorpha) forests on the windward slopes of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea on the island of Hawaii began dying in 1952. Little mortality has occurred since 1972. About 50,000 ha are affected by the decline. Individual trees exhibit several symptoms, from slow progressive dieback to rapid death. Seven types of decline...

  3. Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coresh, Josef; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Appel, Lawrence J; Arima, Hisatomi; Chadban, Steven J; Cirillo, Massimo; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Green, Jamie A; Heine, Gunnar H; Inker, Lesley A; Irie, Fujiko; Ishani, Areef; Ix, Joachim H; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Marks, Angharad; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Shalev, Varda; Shankar, Anoop; Wen, Chi Pang; de Jong, Paul E; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Stengel, Benedicte; Gansevoort, Ron T; Levey, Andrew S

    2014-06-25

    The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2

  4. The rate of source memory decline across the adult life span.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cansino, Selene; Estrada-Manilla, Cinthya; Hernández-Ramos, Evelia; Martínez-Galindo, Joyce Graciela; Torres-Trejo, Frine; Gómez-Fernández, Tania; Ayala-Hernández, Mariana; Osorio, David; Cedillo-Tinoco, Melisa; Garcés-Flores, Lissete; Gómez-Melgarejo, Sandra; Beltrán-Palacios, Karla; Guadalupe García-Lázaro, Haydée; García-Gutiérrez, Fabiola; Cadena-Arenas, Yadira; Fernández-Apan, Luisa; Bärtschi, Andrea; Resendiz-Vera, Julieta; Rodríguez-Ortiz, María Dolores

    2013-05-01

    Previous studies have suggested that the ability to remember contextual information related to specific episodic experiences declines with advancing age; however, the exact moment in the adult life span when this deficit begins is still controversial. Source memory for spatial information was tested in a life span sample of 1,500 adults between the ages of 21 and 80. Initially, images of common objects were randomly presented on one quadrant of a screen while the participants judged whether they were natural or artificial. During the retrieval phase, these same images were mixed with new ones, and all images were displayed in the center of the screen. The participants were asked to judge whether each image was new or old, and whether it was old, to indicate in which quadrant of the screen it had originally been presented. Source accuracy decreased linearly with advancing age at a rate of 0.6% per year across all decades even after controlling for educational level; this decline was unaffected by sex. These results reveal that either spatial information becomes less efficiently bound to episodic representations over time or that the ability to retrieve this information decreases gradually throughout the adult life span.

  5. Life and death of neurons in the aging brain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, J. H.; Hof, P. R.; Bloom, F. E. (Principal Investigator)

    1997-01-01

    Neurodegenerative disorders are characterized by extensive neuron death that leads to functional decline, but the neurobiological correlates of functional decline in normal aging are less well defined. For decades, it has been a commonly held notion that widespread neuron death in the neocortex and hippocampus is an inevitable concomitant of brain aging, but recent quantitative studies suggest that neuron death is restricted in normal aging and unlikely to account for age-related impairment of neocortical and hippocampal functions. In this article, the qualitative and quantitative differences between aging and Alzheimer's disease with respect to neuron loss are discussed, and age-related changes in functional and biochemical attributes of hippocampal circuits that might mediate functional decline in the absence of neuron death are explored. When these data are viewed comprehensively, it appears that the primary neurobiological substrates for functional impairment in aging differ in important ways from those in neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's disease.

  6. The epidemiological transition in Antananarivo, Madagascar: an assessment based on death registers (1900–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Masquelier

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Madagascar today has one of the highest life expectancies in sub-Saharan Africa, despite being among the poorest countries in the continent. There are relatively few detailed accounts of the epidemiological transition in this country due to the lack of a comprehensive death registration system at the national level. However, in Madagascar's capital city, death registration was established around the start of the 20th century and is now considered virtually complete. Objective: We provide an overview of trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Antananarivo to document the timing and pace of the mortality decline and the changes in the cause-of-death structure. Design: Death registers covering the period 1976–2012 were digitized and the population at risk of dying was estimated from available censuses and surveys. Trends for the period 1900–1976 were partly reconstructed from published sources. Results: The crude death rate stagnated around 30‰ until the 1940s in Antananarivo. Mortality declined rapidly after the World War II and then resurged again in the 1980s as a result of the re-emergence of malaria and the collapse of Madagascar's economy. Over the past 30 years, impressive gains in life expectancy have been registered thanks to the unabated decline in child mortality, despite political instability, a lasting economic crisis and the persistence of high rates of chronic malnutrition. Progress in adult survival has been more modest because reductions in infectious diseases and diseases of the respiratory system have been partly offset by increases in cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and other diseases, particularly at age 50 years and over. Conclusions: The transition in Antananarivo has been protracted and largely dependent on anti-microbial and anti-parasitic medicine. The capital city now faces a double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases. The ongoing registration of deaths in the capital

  7. Child mortality in South Africa: Fewer deaths but better data are needed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Barron

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available South Africa is committed to reducing under-5 mortality rates in line with the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG targets. Policymakers and healthcare service managers require accurate and complete data on the number and causes of child deaths to plan and monitor healthcare service delivery and health outcomes. This study aimed to review nationally representative data on under-5 mortality and the cause of deaths among children under 5 years of age. We also reviewed systems that are currently used for generating these data. Child mortality has declined substantially in the past decade. Under-5 mortality in 2015 is estimated at 37 - 40 deaths per 1 000 live births, with an estimated infant mortality rate of 27 - 33 deaths per 1 000 live births. Approximately one-third of under-5 deaths occur during the newborn period, while diarrhoea, pneumonia and HIV infection remain the most important causes of death outside of the newborn period. The proportion of deaths owing to non-natural causes, congenital disorders and non-communicable diseases has increased. However, many discrepancies in data collected through different systems are noted, especially at the sub-national level. There is a need to improve the completeness and accuracy of existing data systems and to strengthen reconciliation and triangulation of data.

  8. Age-dependent terminal declines in reproductive output in a wild bird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hammers, Martijn; Richardson, David S.; Burke, Terry; Komdeur, Jan

    2012-01-01

    In many iteroparous species individual fitness components, such as reproductive output, first increase with age and then decline during late-life. However, individuals differ greatly in reproductive lifespan, but reproductive declines may only occur in the period just before their death as a result

  9. Forced migration and mortality in the very long term: did perestroika affect death rates also in Finland?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saarela, Jan; Finnäs, Fjalar

    2009-08-01

    In this article, we analyze mortality rates of Finns born in areas that were ceded to the Soviet Union after World War II and from which the entire population was evacuated. These internally displaced persons are observed during the period 1971-2004 and compared with people born in the same region but on the adjacent side of the new border. We find that in the 1970s and 1980s, the forced migrants had mortality rates that were on par with those of people in the comparison group. In the late 1980s, the mortality risk of internally displaced men increased by 20% in relation to the expected time trend. This deviation, which manifests particularly in cardiovascular mortality, coincides with perestroika and the demise of the Soviet Union, which were events that resulted in an intense debate in civil society about restitution of the ceded areas. Because state actors were reluctant to engage, the debate declined after some few years, and after the mid-1990s, the death risk again approached the long-term trend. Our findings indicate that when internally displaced persons must adjust to situations for which appropriate coping behaviors are unknown, psychosocial stress might arise several decades after their evacuation.

  10. Temporal associations with declining Trichomonas vaginalis diagnosis rates among women in the state of Victoria, Australia, 1947 to 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrone, John; Fairley, Christopher K; Saville, Marian; Bradshaw, Catriona; Bowden, Francis J; Horvath, Leonie B; Donovan, Basil; Chen, Marcus; Hocking, Jane S

    2008-06-01

    To investigate the temporal associations between Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) diagnoses in women at a large urban sexual health clinic and a major Papanicolaou (Pap) smear screening laboratory in Victoria, Australia with Pap smear screening rates and the introduction of nitroimidazole treatments. An ecological analysis of TV diagnosis rates at the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre and the Victorian Cytology Service, Pap smear screening rates and nitroimidazole prescription data. Diagnoses of TV at the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre peaked in the 1950s at 20% to 30% and then rapidly declined through the 1960s and 1970s to below 1% in 1990. A similar pattern was observed at the Victorian Cytology Service. Metronidazole prescribing and opportunistic Pap smear screening began in Victoria in the 1960s coinciding with declining TV. The availability of tinidazole in 1976 led to further declines in TV in the late 1970s. A national cervical screening program introduced in 1991 was temporally associated with further declines in TV. Our analyses suggest that the introduction of metronidazole was associated with a large reduction in TV among Victorian women in the 1960s. The subsequent availability of tinidazole and increased Pap smear screening may have contributed to the current low TV prevalence in Victoria.

  11. Musculoskeletal disorders as underlying cause of death in 58 countries, 1986-2011: trend analysis of WHO mortality database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Woolf, Anthony D; Englund, Martin

    2017-02-02

    Due to low mortality rate of musculoskeletal disorders (MSK) less attention has been paid to MSK as underlying cause of death in the general population. The aim was to examine trend in MSK as underlying cause of death in 58 countries across globe during 1986-2011. Data on mortality were collected from the WHO mortality database and population data were obtained from the United Nations. Annual sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated by means of direct standardization using the WHO world standard population. We applied joinpoint regression analysis for trend analysis. Between-country disparities were examined using between-country variance and Gini coefficient. The changes in number of MSK deaths between 1986 and 2011 were decomposed using two counterfactual scenarios. The number of MSK deaths increased by 67% between 1986 and 2011 mainly due to population aging. The mean ASMR changed from 17.2 and 26.6 per million in 1986 to 18.1 and 25.1 in 2011 among men and women, respectively (median: 7.3% increase in men and 9.0% reduction in women). Declines in ASMR of 25% or more were observed for men (women) in 13 (19) countries, while corresponding increases were seen for men (women) in 25 (14) countries. In both sexes, ASMR declined during 1986-1997, then increased during 1997-2001 and again declined over 2001-2011. Despite decline over time, there were substantial between-country disparities in MSK mortality and its temporal trend. We found substantial variations in MSK mortality and its trends between countries, regions and also between sex and age groups. Promoted awareness and better management of MSK might partly explain reduction in MSK mortality, but variations across countries warrant further investigations.

  12. Climate change, multiple stressors, and the decline of ectotherms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Palmer, Brent D

    2013-08-01

    Climate change is believed to be causing declines of ectothermic vertebrates, but there is little evidence that climatic conditions associated with declines have exceeded critical (i.e., acutely lethal) maxima or minima, and most relevant studies are correlative, anecdotal, or short-term (hours). We conducted an 11-week factorial experiment to examine the effects of temperature (22 °C or 27 °C), moisture (wet or dry), and atrazine (an herbicide; 0, 4, 40, 400 μg/L exposure as embryos and larvae) on the survival, growth, behavior, and foraging rates of postmetamorphic streamside salamanders (Ambystoma barbouri), a species of conservation concern. The tested climatic conditions were between the critical maxima and minima of streamside salamanders; thus, this experiment quantified the long-term effects of climate change within the noncritical range of this species. Despite a suite of behavioral adaptations to warm and dry conditions (e.g., burrowing, refuge use, huddling with conspecifics, and a reduction in activity), streamside salamanders exhibited significant loss of mass and significant mortality in all but the cool and moist conditions, which were closest to the climatic conditions in which they are most active in nature. A temperature of 27 °C represented a greater mortality risk than dry conditions; death occurred rapidly at this temperature and more gradually under cool and dry conditions. Foraging decreased under dry conditions, which suggests there were opportunity costs to water conservation. Exposure to the herbicide atrazine additively decreased water-conserving behaviors, foraging efficiency, mass, and time to death. Hence, the hypothesis that moderate climate change can cause population declines is even more plausible under scenarios with multiple stressors. These results suggest that climate change within the noncritical range of species and pollution may reduce individual performance by altering metabolic demands, hydration, and foraging effort

  13. Impaired Driving Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, All States

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for people killed in crashes involving a driver with BAC =>0.08%, 2012. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis...

  14. Smoking prevalence in Medicaid has been declining at a negligible rate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-Hong Zhu

    Full Text Available In recent decades the overall smoking prevalence in the US has fallen steadily. This study examines whether the same trend is seen in the Medicaid population.National Health Interview Survey (NHIS data from 17 consecutive annual surveys from 1997 to 2013 (combined N = 514,043 were used to compare smoking trends for 4 insurance groups: Medicaid, the Uninsured, Private Insurance, and Other Coverage. Rates of chronic disease and psychological distress were also compared.Adjusted smoking prevalence showed no detectable decline in the Medicaid population (from 33.8% in 1997 to 31.8% in 2013, trend test P = 0.13, while prevalence in the other insurance groups showed significant declines (38.6%-34.7% for the Uninsured, 21.3%-15.8% for Private Insurance, and 22.6%-16.8% for Other Coverage; all P's<0.005. Among individuals who have ever smoked, Medicaid recipients were less likely to have quit (38.8% than those in Private Insurance (62.3% or Other Coverage (69.8%; both P's<0.001. Smokers in Medicaid were more likely than those in Private Insurance and the Uninsured to have chronic disease (55.0% vs 37.3% and 32.4%, respectively; both P's<0.01. Smokers in Medicaid were also more likely to experience severe psychological distress (16.2% for Medicaid vs 3.2% for Private Insurance and 7.6% for the Uninsured; both P's<0.001.The high and relatively unchanging smoking prevalence in the Medicaid population, low quit ratio, and high rates of chronic disease and severe psychological distress highlight the need to focus on this population. A targeted and sustained campaign to help Medicaid recipients quit smoking is urgently needed.

  15. Association of US State Implementation of Newborn Screening Policies for Critical Congenital Heart Disease With Early Infant Cardiac Deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abouk, Rahi; Grosse, Scott D; Ailes, Elizabeth C; Oster, Matthew E

    2017-12-05

    In 2011, critical congenital heart disease was added to the US Recommended Uniform Screening Panel for newborns, but whether state implementation of screening policies has been associated with infant death rates is unknown. To assess whether there was an association between implementation of state newborn screening policies for critical congenital heart disease and infant death rates. Observational study with group-level analyses. A difference-in-differences analysis was conducted using the National Center for Health Statistics' period linked birth/infant death data set files for 2007-2013 for 26 546 503 US births through June 30, 2013, aggregated by month and state of birth. State policies were classified as mandatory or nonmandatory (including voluntary policies and mandates that were not yet implemented). As of June 1, 2013, 8 states had implemented mandatory screening policies, 5 states had voluntary screening policies, and 9 states had adopted but not yet implemented mandates. Numbers of early infant deaths (between 24 hours and 6 months of age) coded for critical congenital heart disease or other/unspecified congenital cardiac causes for each state-month birth cohort. Between 2007 and 2013, there were 2734 deaths due to critical congenital heart disease and 3967 deaths due to other/unspecified causes. Critical congenital heart disease death rates in states with mandatory screening policies were 8.0 (95% CI, 5.4-10.6) per 100 000 births (n = 37) in 2007 and 6.4 (95% CI, 2.9-9.9) per 100 000 births (n = 13) in 2013 (for births by the end of July); for other/unspecified cardiac causes, death rates were 11.7 (95% CI, 8.6-14.8) per 100 000 births in 2007 (n = 54) and 10.3 (95% CI, 5.9-14.8) per 100 000 births (n = 21) in 2013. Early infant deaths from critical congenital heart disease through December 31, 2013, decreased by 33.4% (95% CI, 10.6%-50.3%), with an absolute decline of 3.9 (95% CI, 3.6-4.1) deaths per 100 000 births after

  16. Changes in Scottish suicide rates during the Second World War.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Rob; Stark, Cameron; Humphry, Roger W; Selvaraj, Sivasubramaniam

    2006-06-23

    It is believed that total reported suicide rates tend to decrease during wartime. However, analysis of suicide rates during recent conflicts suggests a more complex picture, with increases in some age groups and changes in method choice. As few age and gender specific analyses of more distant conflicts have been conducted, it is not clear if these findings reflect a change in the epidemiology of suicide in wartime. Therefore, we examined suicide rates in Scotland before, during and after the Second World War to see if similar features were present. Data on deaths in Scotland recorded as suicide during the period 1931-1952, and population estimates for each of these years, were obtained from the General Register Office for Scotland. Using computer spreadsheets, suicide rates by gender, age and method were calculated. Forward stepwise logistic regression was used to assess the effect of gender, war and year on suicide rates using SAS V8.2. The all-age suicide rate among both men and women declined during the period studied. However, when this long-term decline is taken into account, the likelihood of suicide during the Second World War was higher than during both the pre-War and post-War periods. Suicide rates among men aged 15-24 years rose during the Second World War, peaking at 148 per million (41 deaths) during 1942 before declining to 39 per million (10 deaths) by 1945, while the rate among men aged 25-34 years reached 199 per million (43 deaths) during 1943 before falling to 66 per million (23 deaths) by 1946. This was accompanied by an increase in male suicides attributable to firearms and explosives during the War years which decreased following its conclusion. All age male and female suicide rates decreased in Scotland during World War II. However, once the general background decrease in suicide rates over the whole period is accounted for, the likelihood of suicide among the entire Scottish population during the Second World War was elevated. The overall

  17. Alzheimer disease brain atrophy subtypes are associated with cognition and rate of decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risacher, Shannon L; Anderson, Wesley H; Charil, Arnaud; Castelluccio, Peter F; Shcherbinin, Sergey; Saykin, Andrew J; Schwarz, Adam J

    2017-11-21

    To test the hypothesis that cortical and hippocampal volumes, measured in vivo from volumetric MRI (vMRI) scans, could be used to identify variant subtypes of Alzheimer disease (AD) and to prospectively predict the rate of clinical decline. Amyloid-positive participants with AD from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) 1 and ADNI2 with baseline MRI scans (n = 229) and 2-year clinical follow-up (n = 100) were included. AD subtypes (hippocampal sparing [HpSp MRI ], limbic predominant [LP MRI ], typical AD [tAD MRI ]) were defined according to an algorithm analogous to one recently proposed for tau neuropathology. Relationships between baseline hippocampal volume to cortical volume ratio (HV:CTV) and clinical variables were examined by both continuous regression and categorical models. When participants were divided categorically, the HpSp MRI group showed significantly more AD-like hypometabolism on 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose-PET ( p Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale, 13-Item Subscale (ADAS-Cog 13 ), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and Functional Assessment Questionnaire (all p < 0.05) and tAD MRI on the MMSE and Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) (both p < 0.05). Finally, a larger HV:CTV was associated with poorer baseline executive function and a faster slope of decline in CDR-SB, MMSE, and ADAS-Cog 13 score ( p < 0.05). These associations were driven mostly by the amount of cortical rather than hippocampal atrophy. AD subtypes with phenotypes consistent with those observed with tau neuropathology can be identified in vivo with vMRI. An increased HV:CTV ratio was predictive of faster clinical decline in participants with AD who were clinically indistinguishable at baseline except for a greater dysexecutive presentation. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  18. Thermal Death Kinetics of Conogethes Punctiferalis (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) as Influenced by Heating Rate and Life Stage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Lixia; Du, Yanli; Johnson, Judy A; Wang, Shaojin

    2015-10-01

    Thermal death kinetics of Conogethes punctiferalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) at different life stages, heating rate, and temperature is essential for developing postharvest treatments to control pests in chestnuts. Using a heating block system (HBS), the most heat-tolerant life stage of C. punctiferalis and the effects of heating rate (0.1, 0.5, 1, 5, and 10°C/min) on insect mortality were determined. The thermal death kinetic data of fifth-instar C. punctiferalis were obtained at temperatures between 44 and 50°C at a heating rate of 5°C/min. The results showed that the relative heat tolerance of C. punctiferalis was found to be fifth instars>pupae> third instars> eggs. To avoid the enhanced thermal tolerance of C. punctiferalis at low heating rates (0.1 or 0.5°C/min), a high heating rate of 5°C/min was selected to simulate the fast radio frequency heating in chestnuts and further determine the thermal death kinetic data. Thermal death curves of C. punctiferalis followed a 0th-order kinetic reaction model. The minimum exposure time to achieve 100% mortality was 55, 12, 6, and 3 min at 44, 46, 48, and 50°C, respectively. The activation energy for controlling C. punctiferalis was 482.15 kJ/mol with the z value of 4.09°C obtained from the thermal death-time curve. The information provided by thermal death kinetics for C. punctiferalis is useful in developing effective postharvest thermal treatment protocols for disinfesting chestnuts. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. A remote sensing-assisted risk rating study to predict oak decline and recovery in the Missouri Ozark Highlands, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuizhen Wang; Hong S. He; John M. Kabrick

    2008-01-01

    Forests in the Ozark Highlands underwent widespread oak decline affected by severe droughts in 1999-2000. In this study, the differential normalized difference water index was calculated to detect crown dieback. A multi-factor risk rating system was built to map risk levels of stands. As a quick response to drought, decline in 2000 mostly occurred in stands at low to...

  20. Lung function decline rates according to GOLD group in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim J

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Joohae Kim,1 Ho Il Yoon,2 Yeon-Mok Oh,3 Seong Yong Lim,4 Ji-Hyun Lee,5 Tae-Hyung Kim,6 Sang Yeub Lee,7 Jin Hwa Lee,8 Sang-Do Lee,3 Chang-Hoon Lee11Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, 2Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, 3Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine and Clinical Research Center for Chronic Obstructive Airway Diseases, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 4Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, 5Department of Internal Medicine, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Seongnam, 6Division of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, Hanyang University Guri Hospital, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Guri, 7Division of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, 8Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital, College of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Republic of KoreaBackground: Since the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD groups A-D were introduced, the lung function changes according to group have been evaluated rarely.Objective: We investigated the rate of decline in annual lung function in patients categorized according to the 2014 GOLD guidelines.Methods: Patients with COPD included in the Korean Obstructive Lung Disease (KOLD prospective study, who underwent yearly postbronchodilator spirometry at least three times, were included. The main outcome was the annual decline in postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1, which was analyzed by

  1. The rise and decline of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug-associated gastropathy in rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fries, James F; Murtagh, Kirsten N; Bennett, Mihoko; Zatarain, Ernesto; Lingala, Bharathi; Bruce, Bonnie

    2004-08-01

    Nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug (NSAID)-associated gastropathy is a major cause of hospitalization and death. This study was undertaken to examine whether recent preventive approaches have been associated with a declining incidence of NSAID gastropathy, and, if so, what measures may have caused the decline. We studied 5,598 patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) over 31,262 patient-years at 8 sites. We obtained standardized longitudinal information on the patients that had been previously used to establish the incidence of NSAID gastropathy, and also information on patient risk factors and differences in toxicity between NSAIDs. Consecutive patients were followed up with biannual Health Assessment Questionnaires and medical record audits between 1981 and 2000. The major outcome measure was the annual rate of hospitalization involving bleeding, obstruction, or perforation of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract and related conditions. Rates of GI-related hospitalizations rose from 0.6% in 1981 to 1.5% in 1992 (P NSAIDs from 52% to 42% of patients, a rise in the use of "safer" NSAIDs from 19% to 48% of patients, and increasing use of proton-pump inhibitors, but not with change in age, NSAID exposure, or GI risk propensity score. The risk of serious NSAID gastropathy has declined by 67% in these cohorts since 1992. We estimate that 24% of this decline was the result of lower doses of NSAIDs, while 18% was associated with the use of proton-pump inhibitors and 14% with the use of less toxic NSAIDs. These declines in the incidence of NSAID gastropathy are likely to continue.

  2. Nearly 800,000 deaths prevented due to declines in smoking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twentieth-century tobacco control programs and policies were responsible for preventing more than 795,000 lung cancer deaths in the United States from 1975 through 2000. If all cigarette smoking in this country had ceased following the release of the firs

  3. Effect of pharmacotherapy on rate of decline of lung function in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: results from the TORCH study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Celli, Bartolomé R; Thomas, Nicola E; Anderson, Julie A

    2008-01-01

    was smaller for fluticasone propionate and salmeterol compared with placebo (13 ml/year; 95% CI, 5-22; P = 0.003). Rates of decline were similar among the active treatment arms. FEV(1) declined faster in current smokers and patients with a lower body mass index, and varied between world regions. Patients who...

  4. Differential mortality rates by ethnicity in 3 influenza pandemics over a century, New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Nick; Barnard, Lucy Telfar; Summers, Jennifer A; Shanks, G Dennis; Baker, Michael G

    2012-01-01

    Evidence suggests that indigenous populations have suffered disproportionately from past influenza pandemics. To examine any such patterns for Māori in New Zealand, we searched the literature and performed new analyses by using additional datasets. The Māori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Māori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Māori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3-5.3). These findings suggest some decline in pandemic-related ethnic inequalities in death rates over the past century. Nevertheless, the persistent excess in adverse outcomes for Māori, and for Pacific persons residing in New Zealand, highlights the need for improved public health responses.

  5. Malaria model with periodic mosquito birth and death rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dembele, Bassidy; Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, we introduce a model of malaria, a disease that involves a complex life cycle of parasites, requiring both human and mosquito hosts. The novelty of the model is the introduction of periodic coefficients into the system of one-dimensional equations, which account for the seasonal variations (wet and dry seasons) in the mosquito birth and death rates. We define a basic reproduction number R(0) that depends on the periodic coefficients and prove that if R(0)1 then the disease is endemic and may even be periodic.

  6. Fluid queues driven by a birth and death process with alternating flow rates

    OpenAIRE

    P. R. Parthasarathy; K. V. Vijayashree; R. B. Lenin

    2004-01-01

    Fluid queue driven by a birth and death process (BDP) with only one negative effective input rate has been considered in the literature. As an alternative, here we consider a fluid queue in which the input is characterized by a BDP with alternating positive and negative flow rates on a finite state space. Also, the BDP has two alternating arrival rates and two alternating service rates. Explicit expression for the distribution function of the buffer occupancy is obtained. The case where the s...

  7. Motor Vehicle Occupant Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, All States

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for motor vehicle occupants killed in crashes, 2012 & 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System...

  8. Interphase death of dividing cells. Death rate of cultured Chinese hamster fibroblasts as a function of ph inside and outside cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veksler, A.M.; Kublik, L.N.; Ehjdus, L.Kh.

    1990-01-01

    In studying interphase death (ID) of dividing cells from Chinese hamster fibroblast culture a differently directed relationship between ID rate and pH has been shown: the ID rate increases with pH increasing from 6.6 to 8.1 and decreases with pH from 5.0 to 6.6. The dependence is the same as that observed with lymphoid cells. With radiation doses increasing from 100 to 600 Gy and pH defined, the ID rate increases

  9. Surgeon Scientists Are Disproportionately Affected by Declining NIH Funding Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narahari, Adishesh K; Mehaffey, J Hunter; Hawkins, Robert B; Charles, Eric J; Baderdinni, Pranav K; Chandrabhatla, Anirudha S; Kocan, Joseph W; Jones, R Scott; Upchurch, Gilbert R; Kron, Irving L; Kern, John A; Ailawadi, Gorav

    2018-04-01

    Obtaining National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding over the last 10 years has become increasingly difficult due to a decrease in the number of research grants funded and an increase in the number of NIH applications. National Institutes of Health funding amounts and success rates were compared for all disciplines using data from NIH, Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology (FASEB), and Blue Ridge Medical Institute. Next, all NIH grants (2006 to 2016) with surgeons as principal investigators were identified using the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio Online Reporting Tools Expenditures and Results (NIH RePORTER), and a grant impact score was calculated for each grant based on the publication's impact factor per funding amount. Linear regression and one-way ANOVA were used for analysis. The number of NIH grant applications has increased by 18.7% (p = 0.0009), while the numbers of funded grants (p rate of funded grants with surgeons as principal investigators (16.4%) has been significantly lower than the mean NIH funding rate (19.2%) (p = 0.011). Despite receiving only 831 R01s during this time period, surgeon scientists were highly productive, with an average grant impact score of 4.9 per $100,000, which increased over the last 10 years (0.15 ± 0.05/year, p = 0.02). Additionally, the rate of conversion of surgeon scientist-mentored K awards to R01s from 2007 to 2012 was 46%. Despite declining funding over the last 10 years, surgeon scientists have demonstrated increasing productivity as measured by impactful publications and higher success rates in converting early investigator awards to R01s. Copyright © 2018 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Mortality from Musculoskeletal Disorders Including Rheumatoid Arthritis in Southern Sweden: A Multiple-cause-of-death Analysis, 1998-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Turkiewicz, Aleksandra; Englund, Martin

    2017-05-01

    To assess mortality related to musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders and rheumatoid arthritis (RA), specifically, among adults (aged ≥ 20 yrs) in southern Sweden using the multiple-cause-of-death approach. All death certificates (DC; n = 201,488) from 1998 to 2014 for adults in the region of Skåne were analyzed when mortality from MSK disorders and RA was listed as the underlying and nonunderlying cause of death (UCD/NUCD). Trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were evaluated using joinpoint regression, and associated causes were identified by age- and sex-adjusted observed/expected ratios. MSK (RA) was mentioned on 2.8% (0.8%) of all DC and selected as UCD in 0.6% (0.2%), with higher values among women. Proportion of MSK disorder deaths from all deaths increased from 2.7% in 1998 to 3.1% in 2014, and declined from 0.9% to 0.5% for RA. The mean age at death was higher in DC with mention of MSK/RA than in DC without. The mean ASMR for MSK (RA) was 15.5 (4.3) per 100,000 person-years and declined by 1.1% (3.8%) per year during 1998-2014. When MSK/RA were UCD, pneumonia and heart failure were the main NUCD. When MSK/RA were NUCD, the leading UCD were ischemic heart disease and neoplasms. The greatest observed/expected ratios were seen for infectious diseases (including sepsis) and blood diseases. We observed significant reduction in MSK and RA mortality rates and increase in the mean age at death. Further analyses are required to investigate determinants of these improvements in MSK/RA survival and their potential effect on the Swedish healthcare systems.

  11. Gel-based phosphoproteomics analysis of sarcoplasmic proteins in postmortem porcine muscle with pH decline rate and time differences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Honggang; Larsen, Martin Røssel; Karlsson, Anders H

    2011-01-01

    phosphorylation in sarcoplasmic proteins from three groups of pigs with different pH decline rates from PM 1 to 24¿h. Globally, the fast pH decline group had the highest phosphorylation level at PM 1¿h, but lowest at 24¿h, whereas the slow pH decline group showed the reverse case. The same pattern was also...... observed in most individual bands in 1-DE. The protein phosphorylation levels of 12 bands were significantly affected by the synergy effects of pH and time (p......Meat quality development is highly influenced by the pH decline caused by the postmortem (PM) glycolysis. Protein phosphorylation is an important mechanism in regulating the activity of glycometabolic enzymes. Here, a gel-based phosphoproteomic study was performed to analyze the protein...

  12. Impaired Driving Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 3 - Philadelphia

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for people killed in crashes involving a driver with BAC =>0.08%, 2012, 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis...

  13. Impaired Driving Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 5 - Chicago

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for people killed in crashes involving a driver with BAC =>0.08%, 2012, 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis...

  14. Impaired Driving Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 8 - Denver

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for people killed in crashes involving a driver with BAC =>0.08%, 2012, 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis...

  15. Impaired Driving Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 4 - Atlanta

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for people killed in crashes involving a driver with BAC =>0.08%, 2012, 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis...

  16. Impaired Driving Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 10 - Seattle

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for people killed in crashes involving a driver with BAC =>0.08%, 2012, 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis...

  17. Impaired Driving Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 6 - Dallas

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for people killed in crashes involving a driver with BAC =>0.08%, 2012, 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis...

  18. Impaired Driving Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 1 - Boston

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for people killed in crashes involving a driver with BAC =>0.08%, 2012, 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis...

  19. Effect of Early Referral to Specialist in Dementia on Institutionalization and Functional Decline: Findings from a Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimouguet, Clément; Le-Goff, Mélanie; Rizzuto, Debora; Berr, Claudine; Leffondré, Karen; Pérès, Karine; Dartigues, Jean FranÇois; Helmer, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Although early diagnosis has been hypothesized to benefit both patients and caregivers, until now studies evaluating the effect of early dementia diagnosis are lacking. To investigate the influence of early specialist referral for dementia on the risk of institutionalization and functional decline in Activity of Daily Living (ADL). Incident dementia cases were screened in a prospective population-based cohort, the Three-City Study, and initial specialist consultation for cognitive complaint was assessed at dementia diagnosis. Proportional hazard regression and illness-death models were used to test the association between specialist referral and, respectively, institutionalization and functional decline. Only one third of the incident individuals with dementia had consulted a specialist for cognitive problems early (36%). After adjustment on potential confounders (including cognitive and functional decline) and competing risk of death, participants who had consulted a specialist early in the disease course presented a higher rate of being institutionalized than those who did not (Hazard Ratio = 2.00, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.09- 3.64). But early specialist referral was not associated with further functional decline (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.71- 1.67). Early specialist referral in dementia is associated with increased risk of institutionalization but not with functional decline in ADL. These findings suggest that early care referral in dementia may be a marker of concern for patients and/or caregivers; subsequent medical and social care could be suboptimal or inappropriate to allow patients to stay longer at home.

  20. Regional differences in decline of mortality from selected conditions: The Netherlands, 1969-1984

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mackenbach, J. P.; Looman, C. W.; Kunst, A. E.; Habbema, J. D.; van der Maas, P. J.

    1988-01-01

    In The Netherlands, as in many other industrialized countries, recent mortality developments have been characterized by rapid declines for a number of important causes of death. The results of an analysis of regional variation in mortality decline within The Netherlands are reported, covering the

  1. Nonlinear decline-rate dependence and intrinsic variation of typeIa supernova luminosities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Lifan; Strovink, Mark; Conley, Alexander; Goldhaber,Gerson; Kowalski, Marek; Perlmutter, Saul; Siegrist, James

    2005-12-14

    Published B and V fluxes from nearby Type Ia supernova are fitted to light-curve templates with 4-6 adjustable parameters. Separately, B magnitudes from the same sample are fitted to a linear dependence on B-V color within a post-maximum time window prescribed by the CMAGIC method. These fits yield two independent SN magnitude estimates B{sub max} and B{sub BV}. Their difference varies systematically with decline rate {Delta}m{sub 15} in a form that is compatible with a bilinear but not a linear dependence; a nonlinear form likely describes the decline-rate dependence of B{sub max} itself. A Hubble fit to the average of B{sub max} and B{sub BV} requires a systematic correction for observed B-V color that can be described by a linear coefficient R = 2.59 {+-} 0.24, well below the coefficient R{sub B} {approx} 4.1 commonly used to characterize the effects of Milky Way dust. At 99.9% confidence the data reject a simple model in which no color correction is required for SNe that are clustered at the blue end of their observed color distribution. After systematic corrections are performed, B{sub max} and B{sub BV} exhibit mutual rms intrinsic variation equal to 0.074 {+-} 0.019 mag, of which at least an equal share likely belongs to B{sub BV}. SN magnitudes measured using maximum-luminosity or cmagic methods show comparable rms deviations of order {approx}0.14 mag from the Hubble line. The same fit also establishes a 95% confidence upper limit of 486 km s{sup -1} on the rms peculiar velocity of nearby SNe relative to the Hubble flow.

  2. Comparing primary prevention with secondary prevention to explain decreasing coronary heart disease death rates in Ireland, 1985-2000.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kabir, Zubair

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To investigate whether primary prevention might be more favourable than secondary prevention (risk factor reduction in patients with coronary heart disease(CHD)). METHODS: The cell-based IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to integrate data for Ireland describing CHD patient numbers, uptake of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors, and the mortality benefits of these specific risk factor changes in CHD patients and in healthy people without recognised CHD. RESULTS: Between 1985 and 2000, approximately 2,530 fewer deaths were attributable to reductions in the three major risk factors in Ireland. Overall smoking prevalence declined by 14% between 1985 and 2000, resulting in about 685 fewer deaths (minimum estimate 330, maximum estimate 1,285) attributable to smoking cessation: about 275 in healthy people and 410 in known CHD patients. Population total cholesterol concentrations fell by 4.6%, resulting in approximately 1,300 (minimum estimate 1,115, maximum estimate 1,660) fewer deaths attributable to dietary changes(1,185 in healthy people and 115 in CHD patients) plus 305 fewer deaths attributable to statin treatment (45 in people without CHD and 260 in CHD patients). Mean population diastolic blood pressure fell by 7.2%, resulting in approximately 170 (minimum estimate 105, maximum estimate 300) fewer deaths attributable to secular falls in blood pressure (140 in healthy people and 30 in CHD patients), plus approximately 70 fewer deaths attributable to antihypertensive treatments in people without CHD. Of all the deaths attributable to risk factor falls, some 1,715 (68%) occurred in people without recognized CHD and 815(32%) in CHD patients. CONCLUSION: Compared with secondary prevention, primary prevention achieved a two-fold larger reduction in CHD deaths. Future national CHD policies should therefore prioritize nationwide interventions to promote healthy diets and reduce smoking.

  3. The Spectrum of Epidemiology Underlying Sudden Cardiac Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Meiso; Shimizu, Wataru; Albert, Christine M.

    2015-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) from cardiac arrest is a major international public health problem accounting for an estimated 15–20% of all deaths. Although resuscitation rates are generally improving throughout the world, the majority of individuals who suffer a sudden cardiac arrest will not survive. SCD most often develops in older adults with acquired structural heart disease, but it also rarely occurs in the young, where it is more commonly due to inherited disorders. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is known to be the most common pathology underlying SCD, followed by cardiomyopathies, inherited arrhythmia syndromes, and valvular heart disease. Over the past three decades, declines in SCD rates have not been as steep as for other causes of CHD deaths, and there is a growing fraction of SCDs not due to CHD and/or ventricular arrhythmias, particularly among certain subsets of the population. The growing heterogeneity of the pathologies and mechanisms underlying SCD present major challenges for SCD prevention, which are magnified further by a frequent lack of recognition of the underlying cardiac condition prior to death. Multifaceted preventative approaches, which address risk factors in seemingly low risk and known high-risk populations will be required to decrease the burden of SCD. In this Compendium, we review the wide-ranging spectrum of epidemiology underlying SCD within both the general population and in high-risk subsets with established cardiac disease placing an emphasis on recent global trends, remaining uncertainties, and potential targeted preventive strategies. PMID:26044246

  4. New modelling of transient well test and rate decline analysis for a horizontal well in a multiple-zone reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nie, Ren-Shi; Guo, Jian-Chun; Jia, Yong-Lu; Zhu, Shui-Qiao; Rao, Zheng; Zhang, Chun-Guang

    2011-01-01

    The no-type curve with negative skin of a horizontal well has been found in the current research. Negative skin is very significant to transient well test and rate decline analysis. This paper first presents the negative skin problem where the type curves with negative skin of a horizontal well are oscillatory. In order to solve the problem, we propose a new model of transient well test and rate decline analysis for a horizontal well in a multiple-zone composite reservoir. A new dimensionless definition of r D is introduced in the dimensionless mathematical modelling under different boundaries. The model is solved using the Laplace transform and separation of variables techniques. In Laplace space, the solutions for both constant rate production and constant wellbore pressure production are expressed in a unified formula. We provide graphs and thorough analysis of the new standard type curves for both well test and rate decline analysis; the characteristics of type curves are the reflections of horizontal well production in a multiple-zone reservoir. An important contribution of our paper is that our model removed the oscillation in type curves and thus solved the negative skin problem. We also show that the characteristics of type curves depend heavily on the properties of different zones, skin factor, well length, formation thickness, etc. Our research can be applied to a real case study

  5. Prioritizing child health interventions in Ethiopia: modeling impact on child mortality, life expectancy and inequality in age at death.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristine Husøy Onarheim

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The fourth Millennium Development Goal calls for a two-thirds reduction in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015. Under-5 mortality rate is declining, but many countries are still far from achieving the goal. Effective child health interventions that could reduce child mortality exist, but national decision-makers lack contextual information for priority setting in their respective resource-constrained settings. We estimate the potential health impact of increasing coverage of 14 selected health interventions on child mortality in Ethiopia (2011-2015. We also explore the impact on life expectancy and inequality in the age of death (Gini(health. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate potential impact of scaling-up 14 health interventions in Ethiopia (2011-2015. Interventions are scaled-up to 1 government target levels, 2 90% coverage and 3 90% coverage of the five interventions with the highest impact. Under-5 mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate and deaths averted are primary outcome measures. We used modified life tables to estimate impact on life expectancy at birth and inequality in the age of death (Gini(health. Under-5 mortality rate declines from 101.0 in 2011 to 68.8, 42.1 and 56.7 per 1000 live births under these three scenarios. Prioritizing child health would also increase life expectancy at birth from expected 60.5 years in 2015 to 62.5, 64.2 and 63.4 years and reduce inequality in age of death (Gini(health substantially from 0.24 to 0.21, 0.18 and 0.19. CONCLUSIONS: The Millennium Development Goal for child health is reachable in Ethiopia. Prioritizing child health would also increase total life expectancy at birth and reduce inequality in age of death substantially (Gini(health.

  6. Verbal autopsy completion rate and factors associated with undetermined cause of death in a rural resource-poor setting of Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maliti Deodatus V

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Verbal autopsy (VA is a widely used tool to assign probable cause of death in areas with inadequate vital registration systems. Its uses in priority setting and health planning are well documented in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA and Asia. However, there is a lack of data related to VA processing and completion rates in assigning causes of death in a community. There is also a lack of data on factors associated with undetermined causes of death documented in SSA. There is a need for such information for understanding the gaps in VA processing and better estimating disease burden. Objective The study's intent was to determine the completion rate of VA and factors associated with assigning undetermined causes of death in rural Tanzania. Methods A database of deaths reported from the Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 2002 to 2007 was used. Completion rates were determined at the following stages of processing: 1 death identified; 2 VA interviews conducted; 3 VA forms submitted to physicians; 4 coding and assigning of cause of death. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with deaths coded as "undetermined." Results The completion rate of VA after identification of death and the VA interview ranged from 83% in 2002 and 89% in 2007. Ninety-four percent of deaths submitted to physicians were assigned a specific cause, with 31% of the causes coded as undetermined. Neonates and child deaths that occurred outside health facilities were associated with a high rate of undetermined classification (33%, odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] (1.05, 1.67, p = 0.016. Respondents reporting high education levels were less likely to be associated with deaths that were classified as undetermined (24%, OR = 0.76, 95% CI (0.60, -0.96, p = 0.023. Being a child of the deceased compared to a partner (husband or wife was more likely to be associated with undetermined cause of death classification

  7. Causes of maternal mortality decline in Matlab, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Mahbub Elahi; Ahmed, Anisuddin; Kalim, Nahid; Koblinsky, Marge

    2009-04-01

    Bangladesh is distinct among developing countries in achieving a low maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 322 per 100,000 livebirths despite the very low use of skilled care at delivery (13% nationally). This variation has also been observed in Matlab, a rural area in Bangladesh, where longitudinal data on maternal mortality are available since the mid-1970s. The current study investigated the possible causes of the maternal mortality decline in Matlab. The study analyzed 769 maternal deaths and 215,779 pregnancy records from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) and other sources of safe motherhood data in the ICDDR,B and government service areas in Matlab during 1976-2005. The major interventions that took place in both the areas since the early 1980s were the family-planning programme plus safe menstrual regulation services and safe motherhood interventions (midwives for normal delivery in the ICDDR,B service area from the late 1980s and equal access to comprehensive emergency obstetric care [EmOC] in public facilities for women from both the areas). National programmes for social development and empowerment of women through education and microcredit programmes were implemented in both the areas. The quantitative findings were supplemented by a qualitative study by interviewing local community care providers for their change in practices for maternal healthcare over time. After the introduction of the safe motherhood programme, reduction in maternal mortality was higher in the ICDDR,B service area (68.6%) than in the government service area (50.4%) during 1986-1989 and 2001-2005. Reduction in the number of maternal deaths due to the fertility decline was higher in the government service area (30%) than in the ICDDR,B service area (23%) during 1979-2005. In each area, there has been substantial reduction in abortion-related mortality--86.7% and 78.3%--in the ICDDR,B and government service areas respectively. Education of women was a strong predictor

  8. Declining trends in conception rates in recent birth cohorts of native Danish women: a possible role of deteriorating male reproductive health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tina Kold; Sobotka, Thomás; Hansen, Martin A.

    2008-01-01

    lower TNCR and that in terms of their total fertility rate, the declining TNCR is compensated by an increasing use of ART. Our hypothesis of an ongoing birth cohort-related decline in fecundity was also supported by our finding of increasing and substantial use of ART in the management of infertility......Recent findings of poor semen quality among at least 20% of normal young men in Denmark prompted us to use unique Danish registers on births and induced abortions to evaluate a possible effect of the poor male fecundity on pregnancy rates among their presumed partners - the younger cohorts of women....... We have analysed data from the Danish birth and abortion registries as well as the Danish registry for assisted reproduction (ART) and defined a total natural conception rate (TNCR), which is equal to fertility rate plus induced abortion rate minus ART conception rate. A unique personal...

  9. Declining trends in conception rates in recent birth cohorts of native Danish women: a possible role of deteriorating male reproductive health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, T.K.; Sobotka, T.; Hansen, Marc Allan

    2008-01-01

    lower TNCR and that in terms of their total fertility rate, the declining TNCR is compensated by an increasing use of ART. Our hypothesis of an ongoing birth cohort-related decline in fecundity was also supported by our finding of increasing and substantial use of ART in the management of infertility......Recent findings of poor semen quality among at least 20% of normal young men in Denmark prompted us to use unique Danish registers on births and induced abortions to evaluate a possible effect of the poor male fecundity on pregnancy rates among their presumed partners--the younger cohorts of women....... We have analysed data from the Danish birth and abortion registries as well as the Danish registry for assisted reproduction (ART) and defined a total natural conception rate (TNCR), which is equal to fertility rate plus induced abortion rate minus ART conception rate. A unique personal...

  10. Long-term declines in ADLs, IADLs, and mobility among older Medicare beneficiaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolinsky Fredric D

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most prior studies have focused on short-term (≤ 2 years functional declines. But those studies cannot address aging effects inasmuch as all participants have aged the same amount. Therefore, the authors studied the extent of long-term functional decline in older Medicare beneficiaries who were followed for varying time lengths, and the authors also identified the risk factors associated with those declines. Methods The analytic sample included 5,871 self- or proxy-respondents who had complete baseline and follow-up survey data that could be linked to their Medicare claims for 1993-2007. Functional status was assessed using activities of daily living (ADLs, instrumental ADLs (IADLs, and mobility limitations, with declines defined as the development of two of more new difficulties. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to focus on the associations involving respondent status, health lifestyle, continuity of care, managed care status, health shocks, and terminal drop. Results The average amount of time between the first and final interviews was 8.0 years. Declines were observed for 36.6% on ADL abilities, 32.3% on IADL abilities, and 30.9% on mobility abilities. Functional decline was more likely to occur when proxy-reports were used, and the effects of baseline function on decline were reduced when proxy-reports were used. Engaging in vigorous physical activity consistently and substantially protected against functional decline, whereas obesity, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption were only associated with mobility declines. Post-baseline hospitalizations were the most robust predictors of functional decline, exhibiting a dose-response effect such that the greater the average annual number of hospital episodes, the greater the likelihood of functional status decline. Participants whose final interview preceded their death by one year or less had substantially greater odds of functional status decline

  11. Differences Between Rural and Urban Areas in Mortality Rates for the Leading Causes of Infant Death: United States, 2013-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ely, Danielle M; Hoyert, Donna L

    2018-02-01

    The leading causes of infant death vary by age at death but were consistent from 2005 to 2015 (1-6). Previous research shows higher infant mortality rates in rural counties compared with urban counties and differences in cause of death for individuals aged 1 year and over by urbanization level (4,5,7,8). No research, however, has examined if mortality rates from the leading causes of infant death differ by urbanization level. This report describes the mortality rates for the five leading causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal death in the United States across rural, small and medium urban, and large urban counties defined by maternal residence, as reported on the birth certificate for combined years 2013-2015. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

  12. Metabolic syndrome but not obesity measures are risk factors for accelerated age-related glomerular filtration rate decline in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, Vidar T N; Schei, Jørgen; Solbu, Marit D; Jenssen, Trond G; Melsom, Toralf; Eriksen, Bjørn O

    2018-05-01

    Rapid age-related glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline increases the risk of end-stage renal disease, and a low GFR increases the risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease. High body mass index and the metabolic syndrome are well-known risk factors for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease, but their role in accelerating age-related GFR decline independent of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and diabetes is not adequately understood. We studied body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and metabolic syndrome as risk factors for accelerated GFR decline in 1261 middle-aged people representative of the general population without diabetes, cardiovascular disease or kidney disease. GFR was measured as iohexol clearance at baseline and repeated after a median of 5.6 years. Metabolic syndrome was defined as fulfilling three out of five criteria, based on waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides. The mean GFR decline rate was 0.95 ml/min/year. Neither the body mass index, waist circumference nor waist-hip ratio predicted statistically significant changes in age-related GFR decline, but individuals with baseline metabolic syndrome had a significant mean of 0.30 ml/min/year faster decline than individuals without metabolic syndrome in a multivariable adjusted linear regression model. This association was mainly driven by the triglyceride criterion of metabolic syndrome, which was associated with a significant 0.36 ml/min/year faster decline when analyzed separately. Results differed significantly when GFR was estimated using creatinine and/or cystatin C. Thus, metabolic syndrome, but not the body mass index, waist circumference or waist-hip ratio, is an independent risk factor for accelerated age-related GFR decline in the general population. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Motor Vehicle Occupant Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 10 - Seattle

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for motor vehicle occupants killed in crashes, 2012 & 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System...

  14. Motor Vehicle Occupant Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 6 - Dallas

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for motor vehicle occupants killed in crashes, 2012 & 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System...

  15. Motor Vehicle Occupant Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 5 - Chicago

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for motor vehicle occupants killed in crashes, 2012 & 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System...

  16. Motor Vehicle Occupant Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 8 - Denver

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for motor vehicle occupants killed in crashes, 2012 & 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System...

  17. Motor Vehicle Occupant Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 4 - Atlanta

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for motor vehicle occupants killed in crashes, 2012 & 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System...

  18. Motor Vehicle Occupant Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 3 - Philadelphia

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for motor vehicle occupants killed in crashes, 2012 & 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System...

  19. Scaling in Rate-Changeable Birth and Death Processes with Random Removals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ke Jianhong; Lin Zhenquan; Chen Xiaoshuang

    2009-01-01

    We propose a monomer birth-death model with random removals, in which an aggregate of size k can produce a new monomer at a time-dependent rate I(t)k or lose one monomer at a rate J(t)k, and with a probability P (t) an aggregate of any size is randomly removed. We then analytically investigate the kinetic evolution of the model by means of the rate equation. The results show that the scaling behavior of the aggregate size distribution is dependent crucially on the net birth rate I(t) - J(t) as well as the birth rate I(t). The aggregate size distribution can approach a standard or modified scaling form in some cases, but it may take a scale-free form in other cases. Moreover, the species can survive finally only if either I(t) - J(t) ≥ P (t) or [J(t) + P (t) - I(t)]t ≅ 0 at t >> 1; otherwise, it will become extinct.

  20. Changes in causes of death and mortality rates among children in Greenland from 1987 - 91 to 1992 - 99

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aaen-Larsen, Birger; Bjerregaard, Peter

    2003-01-01

    This study analysed the spontaneous trends in mortality among children in Greenland from 1987 - 91 to 1992 - 99 and describes the changes in the causes of death, mortality rates, and variation between regions.......This study analysed the spontaneous trends in mortality among children in Greenland from 1987 - 91 to 1992 - 99 and describes the changes in the causes of death, mortality rates, and variation between regions....

  1. Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s: Turning the corner from declining first birth rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marion Burkimsher

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the period 1995-2002 there was a change in trajectory from decline to rise in first birth fertility rates across Europe. Objective: A number of previous studies have looked at the demographic causes of the transition. This study evaluates their conclusions by analysing a comprehensive set of indicators for fifteen countries with data in the Human Fertility Database. Methods: Comparisons are made between the four years before and after the fertility trough, to discover what changed between these two periods. Results: In the period before the trough, peak age-specific fertility rates were falling; these tended to stabilise after the year of minimum fertility. The width of the fertility curve, however, was already widening in the 1990s, and this trend continued. The transition from fall to rise in TFR1 occurred when the increase in the width of the curve more than compensated for any further falls in peak rates; this explanation is valid for countries in both Eastern and Western Europe. The increasing width of the fertility curve was caused by two factors: the decline in young (pre-modal fertility slowed, whilst the rise in older (post-modal fertility accelerated. For some countries, a rise in underlying cohort rates also contributed to the rise in period rates. The likelihood of childless women entering motherhood also rose in some but not all countries. Conclusions: During the 1990s, women were postponing first births across Europe. A rebound took place for several reasons, with the overarching driver being the strong rise in late fertility. Comments: In some countries the steep rise in late fertility had an unexpected and paradoxical effect on postponement rates (defined as the year-on-year increase in mean age at first birth. Recuperation at post-modal ages of postponed first births caused an acceleration in 'postponement' rates, as defined by this metric.

  2. Brief Report: Rheumatoid Arthritis as the Underlying Cause of Death in Thirty-One Countries, 1987-2011: Trend Analysis of World Health Organization Mortality Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Felson, David T; Neogi, Tuhina; Englund, Martin

    2017-08-01

    To examine trends in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as an underlying cause of death (UCD) in 31 countries across the world from 1987 to 2011. Data on mortality and population were collected from the World Health Organization mortality database and from the United Nations Population Prospects database. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated by means of direct standardization. We applied joinpoint regression analysis to identify trends. Between-country disparities were examined using between-country variance and the Gini coefficient. Due to low numbers of deaths, we smoothed the ASMRs using a 3-year moving average. Changes in the number of RA deaths between 1987 and 2011 were decomposed using 2 counterfactual scenarios. The absolute number of deaths with RA registered as the UCD decreased from 9,281 (0.12% of all-cause deaths) in 1987 to 8,428 (0.09% of all-cause deaths) in 2011. The mean ASMR decreased from 7.1 million person-years in 1987-1989 to 3.7 million person-years in 2009-2011 (48.2% reduction). A reduction of ≥25% in the ASMR occurred in 21 countries, while a corresponding increase was observed in 3 countries. There was a persistent reduction in RA mortality, and on average, the ASMR declined by 3.0% per year. The absolute and relative between-country disparities decreased during the study period. The rates of mortality attributable to RA have declined globally. However, we observed substantial between-country disparities in RA mortality, although these disparities decreased over time. Population aging combined with a decline in RA mortality may lead to an increase in the economic burden of disease that should be taken into consideration in policy-making. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

  3. Bee deaths need analysing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonekamp, P.M.

    2011-01-01

    Alarm bells are ringing all over the world about the death of bee populations. Although it is not known exactly how severe the decline is, it is important to take the problem seriously. The signals are alarming and the bee is important, not just for natural ecosystems but also for the pollination of

  4. The decline and fall of Type II error rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill; Mark Durst

    2005-01-01

    For general linear models with normally distributed random errors, the probability of a Type II error decreases exponentially as a function of sample size. This potentially rapid decline reemphasizes the importance of performing power calculations.

  5. Impaired Driving Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 7 - Kansas City

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for people killed in crashes involving a driver with BAC =>0.08%, 2012, 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis...

  6. Impaired Driving Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 9 - San Francisco

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for people killed in crashes involving a driver with BAC =>0.08%, 2012, 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis...

  7. Impaired Driving Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 2 - New York

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for people killed in crashes involving a driver with BAC =>0.08%, 2012, 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis...

  8. Declining amenable mortality: a reflection of health care systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gianino, Maria Michela; Lenzi, Jacopo; Fantini, Maria Pia; Ricciardi, Walter; Damiani, Gianfranco

    2017-11-15

    Some studies have analyzed the association of health care systems variables, such as health service resources or expenditures, with amenable mortality, but the association of types of health care systems with the decline of amenable mortality has yet to be studied. The present study examines whether specific health care system types are associated with different time trend declines in amenable mortality from 2000 to 2014 in 22 European OECD countries. A time trend analysis was performed. Using Nolte and McKee's list, age-standardized amenable mortality rates (SDRs) were calculated as the annual number of deaths over the population aged 0-74 years per 100,000 inhabitants. We classified health care systems according to a deductively generated classification by Böhm. This classification identifies three dimensions that are not entirely independent of each other but follow a clear order: the regulation dimension is first, followed by the financing dimension and finally service provision. We performed a hierarchical semi-log polynomial regression analysis on the annual SDRs to determine whether specific health care systems were associated with different SDR trajectories over time. The results showed a clear decline in SDRs in all 22 health care systems between 2000 and 2014 although at different annual changes (slopes). Regression analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the slopes according to provision dimension. Health care systems with a private provision exhibited a slowdown in the decline of amenable mortality over time. It therefore seems that ownership is the most relevant dimension in determining a different pattern of decline in mortality. All countries experienced decreases in amenable mortality between 2000 and 2014; this decline seems to be partially a reflection of health care systems, especially when affected by the provision dimension. If the private ownership is maintained or promoted by health systems, these findings might be

  9. Differential rate in decline in ovarian reserve markers in women with polycystic ovary syndrome compared with control subjects: results of a longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Asima K; Kao, Chia-Ning; Quinn, Molly; Lenhart, Nikolaus; Rosen, Mitchell; Cedars, Marcelle I; Huddleston, Heather

    2018-03-01

    To estimate rates of ovarian aging in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) subjects versus a community control population. Longitudinal. Tertiary academic center. PCOS subjects diagnosed according to the 2004 Rotterdam criteria were systematically enrolled in a PCOS cohort study. The comparison control subjects were from the Ovarian Aging study, a prospective longitudinal study of ovarian aging in healthy women with regular menstrual cycles. Clinical data collection over two study visits. Antral follicle count (AFC), ovarian volume (OV), and antimüllerian hormone level (AMH). PCOS subjects were found to have higher baseline values for all ovarian reserve markers compared with control subjects. Univariate models indicated that, compared with control subjects, PCOS patients experienced significantly faster rates of decline for both AFC and AMH. Change in OV did not differ significantly. To account for potential confounder effects, multiple analysis of covariance models were evaluated for the best fit, considering age, body mass index, and baseline ovarian reserve markers. Adjusted models demonstrated that PCOS patients do not experience a significant difference in AFC decline compared with control subjects, but they do experience a faster rate of decline in AMH (POvarian aging in PCOS is characterized by a more rapid decline in AMH and a slower decline in OV compared with control subjects. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Life Experience with Death: Relation to Death Attitudes and to the Use of Death-Related Memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bluck, Susan; Dirk, Judith; Mackay, Michael M.; Hux, Ashley

    2008-01-01

    The study examines the relation of death experience to death attitudes and to autobiographical memory use. Participants (N = 52) completed standard death attitude measures and wrote narratives about a death-related autobiographical memory and (for comparison) a memory of a low point. Self-ratings of the memory narratives were used to assess their…

  11. Trends in mortality risk by education level and cause of death among US White women from 1986 to 2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montez, Jennifer Karas; Zajacova, Anna

    2013-03-01

    To elucidate why the inverse association between education level and mortality risk (the gradient) has increased markedly among White women since the mid-1980s, we identified causes of death for which the gradient increased. We used data from the 1986 to 2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality File on non-Hispanic White women aged 45 to 84 years (n = 230 692). We examined trends in the gradient by cause of death across 4 time periods and 4 education levels using age-standardized death rates. During 1986 to 2002, the growing gradient for all-cause mortality reflected increasing mortality among low-educated women and declining mortality among college-educated women; during 2003 to 2006 it mainly reflected declining mortality among college-educated women. The gradient increased for heart disease, lung cancer, chronic lower respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, and Alzheimer's disease. Lung cancer and chronic lower respiratory disease explained 47% of the overall increase. Mortality disparities among White women widened across 1986 to 2006 partially because of causes of death for which smoking is a major risk factor. A comprehensive policy framework should address the social conditions that influence smoking among disadvantaged women.

  12. Normal overall mortality rate in Addison's disease, but young patients are at risk of premature death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erichsen, Martina M; Løvås, Kristian; Fougner, Kristian J; Svartberg, Johan; Hauge, Erik R; Bollerslev, Jens; Berg, Jens P; Mella, Bjarne; Husebye, Eystein S

    2009-02-01

    Primary adrenal insufficiency (Addison's disease) is a rare autoimmune disease. Until recently, life expectancy in Addison's disease patients was considered normal. To determine the mortality rate in Addison's disease patients. i) Patients registered with Addison's disease in Norway during 1943-2005 were identified through search in hospital diagnosis registries. Scrutiny of the medical records provided diagnostic accuracy and age at diagnosis. ii) The patients who had died were identified from the National Directory of Residents. iii) Background mortality data were obtained from Statistics Norway, and standard mortality rate (SMR) calculated. iv) Death diagnoses were obtained from the Norwegian Death Cause Registry. Totally 811 patients with Addison's disease were identified, of whom 147 were deceased. Overall SMR was 1.15 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.96-1.35), similar in females (1.18 (0.92-1.44)) and males (1.10 (0.80-1.39)). Patients diagnosed before the age of 40 had significantly elevated SMR at 1.50 (95% CI 1.09-2.01), most pronounced in males (2.03 (1.19-2.86)). Acute adrenal failure was a major cause of death; infection and sudden death were more common than in the general population. The mean ages at death for females (75.7 years) and males (64.8 years) were 3.2 and 11.2 years less than the estimated life expectancy. Addison's disease is still a potentially lethal condition, with excess mortality in acute adrenal failure, infection, and sudden death in patients diagnosed at young age. Otherwise, the prognosis is excellent for patients with Addison's disease.

  13. Searching for early-warning signals of impending dieback and death in Mediterranean oaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colangelo, Michele; Ripullone, Francesco; Julio Camarero, Jesus; De Micco, Veronica; Gazol, Antonio; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Borghetti, Marco

    2017-04-01

    In recent decades, forest dieback episodes have been recorded worldwide affecting different tree species. In particular, several cases of widespread dieback and increased mortality rates have been described for Mediterranean oak (Quercus spp.) species. These dieback cases are revealing the high vulnerability of Mediterranean oaks, manifested as a loss in tree vigour (leaf shedding, canopy and shoot dieback), growth decline and sometimes tree death, as a consequence of temperatures rising at unprecedented rates and drying trends. However, in the wake of the so-called 'oak decline phenomenon', the attention on these species has generally been limited, perhaps because they are often regarded as well-adapted to the dry conditions typical of Mediterranean areas. Indeed, according to recent studies, the reduced size, the ability to sprout and the anisohydric behavior of Mediterranean oak species (reduced control of water loss and high stomatal conductance rates) would make them better adapted to withstand heat and drought stress then taller and non-sprouting isohydric species (e.g. conifer, with strict control of water loss by closing stomata). Here, we investigated the vulnerability of Mediterranean oaks by comparing neighboring living and recently dead trees in species with low (Q. pubescens), intermediate (Q. cerris, Q. frainetto) and high (Q. robur) sensitivity to water shortage. We analysed changes in tree vigour using tree-ring width and functional wood anatomical traits as proxies to search for early-warning signals of dieback, in connection with the main proposed dieback mechanisms (hydraulic failure and/or carbon starvation). We also modeled the probability of tree death as a function of tree size (diameter, height) by quantifying recent changes in growth and wood anatomy along tree-ring series. Contrary to the general concept that trees tend to experience increasing cavitation risk with increasing height, our studies show that smaller oaks are more prone to die

  14. Average age at death in infancy and infant mortality level: Reconsidering the Coale-Demeny formulas at current levels of low mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgeny M. Andreev

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: The long-term historical decline in infant mortality has been accompanied by increasing concentration of infant deaths at the earliest stages of infancy. In the mid-1960s Coale and Demeny developed formulas describing the dependency of the average age of death in infancy on the level of infant mortality, based on data obtained up to that time. Objective: In the more developed countries a steady rise in average age of infant death began in the mid-1960s. This paper documents this phenomenon and offers alternative formulas for calculation of the average age of death, taking into account the new mortality trends. Methods: Standard statistical methodologies and a specially developed method are applied to the linked individual birth and infant death datasets available from the US National Center for Health Statistics and the initial (raw numbers of deaths from the Human Mortality Database. Results: It is demonstrated that the trend of decline in the average age of infant death becomes interrupted when the infant mortality rate attains a level around 10 per 1000, and modifications of the Coale-Demeny formulas for practical application to contemporary low levels of mortality are offered. Conclusions: The average age of death in infancy is an important characteristic of infant mortality, although it does not influence the magnitude of life expectancy. That the increase in average age of death in infancy is connected with medical advances is proposed as a possible explanation.

  15. Rapid population decline in red knots : fitness consequences of decreased refuelling rates and late arrival in Delaware Bay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baker, AJ; Gonzalez, PM; Piersma, T; Niles, LJ; do Nascimento, IDS; Atkinson, PW; Clark, NA; Minton, CDT; Peck, MK; Aarts, G

    2004-01-01

    Most populations of migrant shorebirds around the world are in serious decline, suggesting that vital condition-dependent rates such as fecundity and annual survival are being affected globally. A striking example is the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) population wintering in Tierra del Fuego,

  16. Illicit Drug Use, Illicit Drug Use Disorders, and Drug Overdose Deaths in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas - United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mack, Karin A; Jones, Christopher M; Ballesteros, Michael F

    2017-10-20

    small metropolitan or nonmetropolitan areas throughout the study period. Notably, past-month use of illicit drugs declined over the study period for the youngest respondents (aged 12-17 years). The prevalence of past-year illicit drug use disorders among persons using illicit drugs in the past year varied by metropolitan/nonmetropolitan status and changed over time. Across both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, the prevalence of past-year illicit drug use disorders declined during 2003-2014. In 2015, approximately six times as many drug overdose deaths occurred in metropolitan areas than occurred in nonmetropolitan areas (metropolitan: 45,059; nonmetropolitan: 7,345). Drug overdose death rates (per 100,000 population) for metropolitan areas were higher than in nonmetropolitan areas in 1999 (6.4 versus 4.0), however, the rates converged in 2004, and by 2015, the nonmetropolitan rate (17.0) was slightly higher than the metropolitan rate (16.2). Drug use and subsequent overdoses continue to be a critical and complicated public health challenge across metropolitan/nonmetropolitan areas. The decline in illicit drug use by youth and the lower prevalence of illicit drug use disorders in rural areas during 2012-2014 are encouraging signs. However, the increasing rate of drug overdose deaths in rural areas, which surpassed rates in urban areas, is cause for concern. Understanding the differences between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in drug use, drug use disorders, and drug overdose deaths can help public health professionals to identify, monitor, and prioritize responses. Consideration of where persons live and where they die from overdose could enhance specific overdose prevention interventions, such as training on naloxone administration or rescue breathing. Educating prescribers on CDC's guideline for prescribing opioids for chronic pain (Dowell D, Haegerich TM, Chou R. CDC guideline for prescribing opioids for chronic pain-United States, 2016. MMWR Recomm Rep

  17. Rates of TBI-related Emergency Department Visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths - United States, 2001 – 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — In general, total combined rates for traumatic brain injury (TBI)-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations and deaths have increased over the past...

  18. Predicting impending death: inconsistency in speed is a selective and early marker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, Stuart W S; Hultsch, David F; Dixon, Roger A

    2008-09-01

    Among older adults, deficits in both level and variability of speeded performance are linked to neurological impairment. This study examined whether and when speed (rate), speed (inconsistency), and traditional accuracy-based markers of cognitive performance foreshadow terminal decline and impending death. Victoria Longitudinal Study data spanning 12 years (5 waves) of measurement were assembled for 707 adults aged 59 to 95 years. Whereas 442 survivors completed all waves and relevant measures, 265 decedents participated on at least 1 occasion and subsequently died. Four main results were observed. First, Cox regressions evaluating the 3 cognitive predictors of mortality replicated previous results for cognitive accuracy predictors. Second, level (rate) of speeded performance predicted survival independent of demographic indicators, cardiovascular health, and cognitive performance level. Third, inconsistency in speed predicted survival independent of all influences combined. Fourth, follow-up random-effects models revealed increases in inconsistency in speed per year closer to death, with advancing age further moderating the accelerated growth. Hierarchical prediction patterns support the view that inconsistency in speed is an early behavioral marker of neurological dysfunction associated with impending death. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

  19. Effects of perceived job insecurity on depression, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health in Korea: a population-based panel study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min-Seok; Hong, Yun-Chul; Yook, Ji-Hoo; Kang, Mo-Yeol

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the effects of job security on new development of depressive episode, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health. Data from the Korea Welfare Panel Study from 2012 to 2015 were analysed. A total of 2912 waged workers self-assessed their depressive episode, suicide ideation, and health annually by answering the questionnaire. Participants were divided into three groups according to the level of job security: high, intermediate and low. To evaluate the influence of job security, we performed survival analysis after stratification by gender with adjustment for covariates. The result was further stratified by whether the respondent was the head of household. After adjusting for covariates, men in low job security group showed significantly higher hazard ratios (HRs) for depression (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.01-1.60), suicide ideation (HR 3.25, 95% CI 1.72-6.16), and decline in self-rated health (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.16-2.59). Women showed significantly higher HR of depression in the intermediate (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.01-1.87) and low (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.12-1.99) job security group. Male head of household with low job security showed significantly higher HR of depression, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health. Non-head-of-household women with intermediate and low job security showed higher risk of depression than those with high job security. We found that perceived job insecurity is associated with the new development of depressive episode, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health.

  20. Motor Vehicle Occupant Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 7 - Kansas City

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for motor vehicle occupants killed in crashes, 2012 & 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System...

  1. Motor Vehicle Occupant Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 9 - San Francisco

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for motor vehicle occupants killed in crashes, 2012 & 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System...

  2. Motor Vehicle Occupant Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, HHS Region 1 - Boston

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for motor vehicle occupants killed in crashes, 2012 & 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System...

  3. Motor Vehicle Occupant Death Rate, by Age and Gender, 2012 & 2014, Region 2 - New York

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Rate of deaths by age/gender (per 100,000 population) for motor vehicle occupants killed in crashes, 2012 & 2014. 2012 Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System...

  4. Malnutrition related deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparre-Sørensen, Maja; Kristensen, Gustav N

    2016-10-01

    Studies have shown that malnutrition increases the risk of morbidity, mortality, the length of hospital stay, and costs in the elderly population. Approximately one third of all patients admitted to geriatric wards in Denmark are malnourished according to the Danish Geriatric database. The aim of this study is to describe and examine the sudden increase in deaths due to malnutrition in the elderly population in Denmark from 1999 and, similarly, the sudden decline in malnutrition related deaths in 2007. A descriptive epidemiologic study was performed. All Danes listed in the national death registry who died from malnutrition in the period from 1994 to 2012 are included. The number of deaths from malnutrition increased significantly during the period from 1999 to 2007, especially in the age group 70 years and over. Additionally, we document a surprising similarity between the development in excess mortality from malnutrition in the five Danish regions during the same period. During the period 1999-2007 malnutrition was the direct cause of 340 extra deaths, and probably ten times more registered under other diseases. This development in excess mortality runs parallel in all five Danish regions over time. Copyright © 2016 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. ROBUST DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutawanir Darwis

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Empirical decline curve analysis of oil production data gives reasonable answer in hyperbolic type curves situations; however the methodology has limitations in fitting real historical production data in present of unusual observations due to the effect of the treatment to the well in order to increase production capacity. The development ofrobust least squares offers new possibilities in better fitting production data using declinecurve analysis by down weighting the unusual observations. This paper proposes a robustleast squares fitting lmRobMM approach to estimate the decline rate of daily production data and compares the results with reservoir simulation results. For case study, we usethe oil production data at TBA Field West Java. The results demonstrated that theapproach is suitable for decline curve fitting and offers a new insight in decline curve analysis in the present of unusual observations.

  6. Novel Method of Production Decline Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Shan; Lan, Yifei; He, Lei; Jiao, Yang; Wu, Yong

    2018-02-01

    ARPS decline curves is the most commonly used in oil and gas field due to its minimal data requirements and ease application. And prediction of production decline which is based on ARPS analysis rely on known decline type. However, when coefficient index are very approximate under different decline type, it is difficult to directly recognize decline trend of matched curves. Due to difficulties above, based on simulation results of multi-factor response experiments, a new dynamic decline prediction model is introduced with using multiple linear regression of influence factors. First of all, according to study of effect factors of production decline, interaction experimental schemes are designed. Based on simulated results, annual decline rate is predicted by decline model. Moreover, the new method is applied in A gas filed of Ordos Basin as example to illustrate reliability. The result commit that the new model can directly predict decline tendency without needing recognize decline style. From arithmetic aspect, it also take advantage of high veracity. Finally, the new method improves the evaluation method of gas well production decline in low permeability gas reservoir, which also provides technical support for further understanding of tight gas field development laws.

  7. Job insecurity, chances on the labour market and decline in self-rated health in a representative sample of the Danish workforce

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rugulies, R.; Aust, B.; Burr, H.; Bultmann, U.

    Objective: To investigate if job insecurity and poor labour market chances predict a decline in self-rated health in the Danish workforce. Design: Job insecurity, labour market chances, self-rated health and numerous covariates were measured in 1809 women and 1918 men who responded to a

  8. A decomposition analysis of recent fertility decline in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubhaju, B; Shahidullah, M

    1990-12-01

    Over the period 1966-86, both the Fijian and Indian populations of Fiji demonstrated declines in fertility. Differentials in the decline were, however, noted with the total fertility rate (TFR) of the Fijian population declining by 26% over the period compared to a 50% decline in the Indian TFR. Moreover, rate declines were not smooth and consistent over the period. Faster fertility decline was experienced in the 1st decade for both groups, slowing in the 2nd decade for Indian women, and stabilizing among the Fijians. This paper decomposes these differential changes in fertility rate into marital structure and marital fertility. The study was conducted using data from the censuses of 1966, 1976, and 1986. For the period 1966-76, declines in marital fertility contributed most to overall TFR decline for both ethnic groups. Marital structure had a reducing effect upon TFR among Indian women in the 1st decaed, but not during the 2nd. Fijian women experienced an overall negative impact from marital structure. Contraception plays an important role in limiting fertility in these 2 populations. Accordingly, differentials in acceptance were noticed, the family planning acceptance rate for Indians being almost twice that of Fijians; 35.6% and 18.7%, respectively in 1986. Compared to Indian women, Fijian women were more literate, more economically active, had higher life expectancies, and experience lower infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, they are not motivated to use family planning. Motivational, cultural, religious, and behavioral factors are suggested as causal factors determining acceptance and use of modern contraceptive methods.

  9. The rate of change in declining steroid hormones: a new parameter of healthy aging in men?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walther, Andreas; Philipp, Michel; Lozza, Niclà; Ehlert, Ulrike

    2016-09-20

    Research on healthy aging in men has increasingly focused on age-related hormonal changes. Testosterone (T) decline is primarily investigated, while age-related changes in other sex steroids (dehydroepiandrosterone [DHEA], estradiol [E2], progesterone [P]) are mostly neglected. An integrated hormone parameter reflecting aging processes in men has yet to be identified. 271 self-reporting healthy men between 40 and 75 provided both psychometric data and saliva samples for hormone analysis. Correlation analysis between age and sex steroids revealed negative associations for the four sex steroids (T, DHEA, E2, and P). Principal component analysis including ten salivary analytes identified a principal component mainly unifying the variance of the four sex steroid hormones. Subsequent principal component analysis including the four sex steroids extracted the principal component of declining steroid hormones (DSH). Moderation analysis of the association between age and DSH revealed significant moderation effects for psychosocial factors such as depression, chronic stress and perceived general health. In conclusion, these results provide further evidence that sex steroids decline in aging men and that the integrated hormone parameter DSH and its rate of change can be used as biomarkers for healthy aging in men. Furthermore, the negative association of age and DSH is moderated by psychosocial factors.

  10. Did the suicide barrier work after all? Revisiting the Bloor Viaduct natural experiment and its impact on suicide rates in Toronto.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinyor, Mark; Schaffer, Ayal; Redelmeier, Donald A; Kiss, Alex; Nishikawa, Yasunori; Cheung, Amy H; Levitt, Anthony J; Pirkis, Jane

    2017-06-19

    This research aims to determine the long-term impact of the Bloor Street Viaduct suicide barrier on rates of suicide in Toronto and whether media reporting had any impact on suicide rates. Natural experiment. City of Toronto, Canada; records at the chief coroner's office of Ontario 1993-2003 (11 years before the barrier) and 2004-2014 (11 years after the barrier). 5403 people who died by suicide in the city of Toronto. Changes in yearly rates of suicide by jumping at Bloor Street Viaduct, other bridges including nearest comparison bridge and walking distance bridges, and buildings, and by other means. Suicide rates at the Bloor Street Viaduct declined from 9.0 deaths/year before the barrier to 0.1 deaths/year after the barrier (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.005, 95% CI 0.0005 to 0.19, p=0.002). Suicide deaths from bridges in Toronto also declined significantly (IRR 0.53, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.71, psuicide at the Bloor Street Viaduct were associated with an increase in suicide-by-jumping from bridges the following year. The current study demonstrates that, over the long term, suicide-by-jumping declined in Toronto after the barrier with no associated increase in suicide by other means. That is, the barrier appears to have had its intended impact at preventing suicide despite a short-term rise in deaths at other bridges that was at least partially influenced by a media effect. Research examining barriers at other locations should interpret short-term results with caution. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  11. Predicting clinical decline in progressive agrammatic aphasia and apraxia of speech.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitwell, Jennifer L; Weigand, Stephen D; Duffy, Joseph R; Clark, Heather M; Strand, Edythe A; Machulda, Mary M; Spychalla, Anthony J; Senjem, Matthew L; Jack, Clifford R; Josephs, Keith A

    2017-11-28

    To determine whether baseline clinical and MRI features predict rate of clinical decline in patients with progressive apraxia of speech (AOS). Thirty-four patients with progressive AOS, with AOS either in isolation or in the presence of agrammatic aphasia, were followed up longitudinally for up to 4 visits, with clinical testing and MRI at each visit. Linear mixed-effects regression models including all visits (n = 94) were used to assess baseline clinical and MRI variables that predict rate of worsening of aphasia, motor speech, parkinsonism, and behavior. Clinical predictors included baseline severity and AOS type. MRI predictors included baseline frontal, premotor, motor, and striatal gray matter volumes. More severe parkinsonism at baseline was associated with faster rate of decline in parkinsonism. Patients with predominant sound distortions (AOS type 1) showed faster rates of decline in aphasia and motor speech, while patients with segmented speech (AOS type 2) showed faster rates of decline in parkinsonism. On MRI, we observed trends for fastest rates of decline in aphasia in patients with relatively small left, but preserved right, Broca area and precentral cortex. Bilateral reductions in lateral premotor cortex were associated with faster rates of decline of behavior. No associations were observed between volumes and decline in motor speech or parkinsonism. Rate of decline of each of the 4 clinical features assessed was associated with different baseline clinical and regional MRI predictors. Our findings could help improve prognostic estimates for these patients. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  12. Cognitive decline, mortality, and organophosphorus exposure in aging Mexican Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Kimberly C; Ling, Chenxiao; Lee, Anne; To, Tu My; Cockburn, Myles; Haan, Mary; Ritz, Beate

    2018-01-01

    Cognitive impairment is a major health concern among older Mexican Americans, associated with significant morbidity and mortality, and may be influenced by environmental exposures. To investigate whether agricultural based ambient organophosphorus (OP) exposure influences 1) the rate of cognitive decline and mortality and 2) whether these associations are mediated through metabolic or inflammatory biomarkers. In a subset of older Mexican Americans from the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (n = 430), who completed modified mini-mental state exams (3MSE) up to 7 times (1998-2007), we examined the relationship between estimated ambient OP exposures and cognitive decline (linear repeated measures model) and time to dementia or being cognitively impaired but not demented (CIND) and time to mortality (cox proportional hazards model). We then explored metabolic and inflammatory biomarkers as potential mediators of these relationships (additive hazards mediation). OP exposures at residential addresses were estimated with a geographic information system (GIS) based exposure assessment tool. Participants with high OP exposure in the five years prior to baseline experienced faster cognitive decline (β = 0.038, p = 0.02) and higher mortality over follow-up (HR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.12, 3.26). The direct effect of OP exposure was estimated at 241 (95% CI = 27-455) additional deaths per 100,000 person-years, and the proportion mediated through the metabolic hormone adiponectin was estimated to be 4% 1.5-19.2). No other biomarkers were associated with OP exposure. Our study provides support for the involvement of OP pesticides in cognitive decline and mortality among older Mexican Americans, possibly through biologic pathways involving adiponectin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Falling teen pregnancy, birthrates: what's behind the declines?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, P

    1998-10-01

    About half of the almost 1 million US teenagers who become pregnant each year carry their pregnancies to term and give birth. However, after years of steady increases, teen birthrates in the US are lower and pregnancy rates have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years. Teenage sexual activity is also declining. Over the period 1991-96, the birthrate in the US among teens declined from the 20-year high of 62.1 births/1000 females aged 15-19 to 54.4/1000. This 12% decline comes after a 24% increase in the birthrate between 1986 and 1991. Declines in the teen birthrate were observed for the nation overall, as well as in each state, ranging from 6% in Alabama to 29% in Alaska. The teen birthrate among Blacks declined 21% to reach a record low of 91.4/1000 in 1996, while the rate for Hispanic teens barely changed during 1991-95, but eventually declined 5% during 1995-96 to 101.8/1000. The birthrate among non-Hispanic White teens declined 9% during the period to 48.1/1000, while the birthrate for teens aged 15-17 fell 13% during the period and 9% for 18-19 year olds. Pregnancy rates among women aged 15-19 years declined 14% between 1990 and 1995, to 101.1/1000, the lowest level since the mid-1970s. Although researchers are unsure why teen pregnancy and birthrates have fallen, recent survey data suggest that the declines have occurred because both fewer teens are having sex and more sexually active adolescents are using contraception.

  14. Linking Concurrent Self-Reports and Retrospective Proxy Reports About the Last Year of Life: A Prevailing Picture of Life Satisfaction Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerstorf, Denis; Ram, Nilam; Schupp, Jürgen; Sprangers, Mirjam A. G.; Wagner, Gert G.

    2014-01-01

    Objective. We examined the extent to which retrospective proxy reports of well-being mirror participant self-reports at 12–24 months before death and how proxy reports of well-being change over the last year of life. We also explored the role of sociodemographic, cognitive, and health factors of both participants and proxies in moderating such associations. Method. We used retrospective proxy ratings obtained in the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (N = 164; age at death = 19–99 years). Results. Results revealed moderate agreement between self- and proxy reports (r = .42), but proxies, on average, overestimated participants’ life satisfaction by two thirds of a scale point on a 0–10 scale (or 0.4 SD). Discrepancies were particularly pronounced when proxies themselves reported low life satisfaction. Over the last year of life, participants were viewed to have experienced declines in life satisfaction (−0.54 SD). Declines were stronger for ill participants and proxies who reported low life satisfaction. Discussion. Results qualify theoretical expectations and empirical results based on self-report data that are typically available 1 or 2 years before death. We discuss that retrospective proxy reports in panel surveys can be used as a hypothesis-generating tool to gather insights into late life. PMID:23766436

  15. Dynamic and heterogeneous effects of sibling death on children's outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Jason; Vidal-Fernandez, Marian; Wolfe, Barbara

    2018-01-02

    This paper explores the effects of experiencing the death of a sibling on children's developmental outcomes. Recent work has shown that experiencing a sibling death is common and long-term effects are large. We extend understanding of these effects by estimating dynamic effects on surviving siblings' cognitive and socioemotional outcomes, as well as emotional and cognitive support by parents. Using the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (CNLSY79), we find large initial effects on cognitive and noncognitive outcomes that decline over time. We also provide evidence that the effects are larger if the surviving child is older and less prominent if the deceased child was either disabled or an infant, suggesting sensitive periods of exposure. Auxiliary results show that parental investments in the emotional support of surviving children decline following the death of their child.

  16. South Dakota accidental childhood deaths, 2000-2007: what can we do?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svien, Lana R; Senne, Svien A; Rasmussen, Carl

    2010-05-01

    Unintentional injuries are the leading cause of death in children around the world and are an under-recognized public health problem in the United States. The purpose of this study was to highlight the nature of the problem in South Dakota and outline interventions that have been successful in reducing childhood injuries in other states. This quantitative retrospective study examined mortality files in South Dakota for children birth to 19 years of age who died between January 1, 2000 to December 28, 2007. Although the number of deaths declined considerably from 2006 to 2007, South Dakota had the second-highest rate in the nation of childhood unintentional injury deaths from all causes between 2000-2005. The majority of deaths occurred in males and were associated with transportation-related deaths. Suffocation was the leading cause of death for newborns to age 1 year. Childhood accidental death in South Dakota is clearly a critical public health problem. Intervention efforts to reduce deaths from unintentional injuries amongst children should be targeted as the leading causes of accidental death for specific age groups and American Indian youth. Physicians, health educators and policymakers must play a role in prevention targeting the high-risk groups in addition to advocating for policy changes to protect childhood safety. More stringent child restraint laws, graduated driving laws, smoking cessation programs for parents, creation of safer sleep environments and further investigation of why a high proportion of American Indian children die accidentally in South Dakota are all warranted.

  17. Reducing Maternal Deaths in Ethiopia: Results of an Intervention Programme in Southwest Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernt Lindtjørn

    Full Text Available In a large population in Southwest Ethiopia (population 700,000, we carried out a complex set of interventions with the aim of reducing maternal mortality. This study evaluated the effects of several coordinated interventions to help improve effective coverage and reduce maternal deaths. Together with the Ministry of Health in Ethiopia, we designed a project to strengthen the health-care system. A particular emphasis was given to upgrade existing institutions so that they could carry out Basic (BEmOC and Comprehensive Emergency Obstetric Care (CEmOC. Health institutions were upgraded by training non-clinical physicians and midwives by providing the institutions with essential and basic equipment, and by regular monitoring and supervision by staff competent in emergency obstetric work.In this implementation study, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR was the primary outcome. The study was carried out from 2010 to 2013 in three districts, and we registered 38,312 births. The MMR declined by 64% during the intervention period from 477 to 219 deaths per 100,000 live births (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.88. The decline in MMR was higher for the districts with CEmOC, while the mean number of antenatal visits for each woman was 2.6 (Inter Quartile Range 2-4. The percentage of pregnant women who attended four or more antenatal controls increased by 20%, with the number of women who delivered at home declining by 10.5% (P<0.001. Similarly, the number of deliveries at health posts, health centres and hospitals increased, and we observed a decline in the use of traditional birth attendants. Households living near to all-weather roads had lower maternal mortality rates (MMR 220 compared with households without roads (MMR 598; OR 2.72 (95% CI 1.61-4.61.Our results show that it is possible to achieve substantial reductions in maternal mortality rates over a short period of time if the effective coverage of well-known interventions is implemented.

  18. Action plan against declining vineyards: An innovative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riou Christophe

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Declining vineyards are assessed by a multi-year decrease in vine productivity and/or its sudden premature or gradual death, based on multiple factors. Since 2015, the French wine sector has been working on an original study to identify new research avenues while launching an innovative action plan to combat vineyard decline. First, a statistical analysis enabled to estimate research efforts in the different countries. 70 factors susceptible to contribute to vineyard decline were then identified by analyzing more than 500 publications. These factors are biological, physical or linked to growing practices. While the role of pathogens is fairly well-known, the impact of the land plot or the soil on decline is less understood. Secondly, a prospective methodology was used to better identify viticulture system factors and levers affecting vines. It was thus demonstrated that yield and longevity are strongly linked to agronomy, economic variables and plant matter, plant physiology, disease, etc... These are the key issues and leverage actions to combat more strongly vineyard decline. The matrix analysis was then complemented by interviews and statistical data to imagine leverage actions. The strategic action plan is focused on four objectives: promoting training of good practices, improving plant production organization, developing vineyard observation networks, implementing an innovative research plan.

  19. Getting a piece of the pie? The economic boom of the 1990s and declining teen birth rates in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colen, Cynthia G; Geronimus, Arline T; Phipps, Maureen G

    2006-09-01

    In the United States, the 1990s was a decade of dramatic economic growth as well as a period characterized by substantial declines in teenage childbearing. This study examines whether falling teen fertility rates during the 1990s were responsive to expanding employment opportunities and whether the implementation of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunities Act (PRWORA), increasing rates of incarceration, or restrictive abortion policies may have affected this association. Fixed-effects Poisson regression models were estimated to assess the relationship between age-specific birth rates and state-specific unemployment rates from 1990 to 1999 for Black and White females aged 10-29. Falling unemployment rates in the 1990s were associated with decreased childbearing among African-American women aged 15-24, but were largely unrelated to declines in fertility for Whites. For 18-19 year-old African-Americans, the group for whom teen childbearing is most normative, our model accounted for 85% of the decrease in rates of first births. Young Black women, especially older teens, may have adjusted their reproductive behavior to take advantage of expanded labor market opportunities.

  20. What underpins the decline in syphilis in Southern and Eastern Africa? An exploratory ecological analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Richard Kenyon

    2014-12-01

    Conclusions: AIDS mortality may have played an important role in the decline in syphilis in this region. Consequently, with AIDS deaths declining in Sub-Saharan Africa, vigilant surveillance of syphilis prevalence will be necessary to detect a potential re-emergence, as has occurred in high-income countries, and to render a timely public health response.

  1. Actual innocence: is death different?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acker, James R

    2009-01-01

    Supreme Court jurisprudence relies heavily on the premise that "death is different" from other criminal sanctions, and that capital cases entail commensurately demanding standards of reliability. Although invoked most frequently with respect to sentencing, both precedent and logic suggest that heightened reliability applies as well to guilt determination in capital trials. Nevertheless, recurrent and highly visible wrongful convictions in capital cases have affected public opinion, contributed to a precipitous decline in new death sentences, and led to calls for reforms designed to guard against the risk of executing innocent persons. This article examines the implications of the "death is different" doctrine for the problem of wrongful convictions in both capital and non-capital cases. It argues that innovations designed to enhance reliability in the special context of death-penalty prosecutions are important in their own right, but relevant new safeguards also should extend to criminal cases generally, where innocent people are similarly at risk and wrongful convictions are far more prevalent. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Hungarian Population Discourses in the Twentieth Century: The Problem of Declining Birth Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ildikó Szántó

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Falling birth rates had already been recorded as early as the late-eighteenth century in south-western Hungary in the Ormánság. Population loss from low birth rate remained one of the main topics writers and sociologists focused on in the twentieth century. The issue of Hungarian population decline was highlighted among the social ills in the interwar period, which was one of several subjects that divided intellectuals into ‘populists’ and ‘urbanites’. Following the impact of the low birth rate figures in the 1960s, the populists’ views of the 1930s resurfaced in public discourse in the 1960s and 1970s and up to the present day. The concern about the increasing trend of single-child families in rural settlements as well as in urban areas appeared in the various works of Hungarian writers and journalists throughout the previous century. The present paper intends to focus on the intellectual background to the public debates on the population issue, outlining the accounts of the interwar ‘village explorers’ briefly, and the way they are related to the pre-Second World War populist movement. Finally the reappearance of the debates between populists and non-populists of the 1970s is discussed, a debate that is still continuing.

  3. The relationship between sales of SSRI, TCA and suicide rates in the Nordic countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahl, Per-Henrik; De Leo, Diego; Ekeberg, Øivind; Hjelmeland, Heidi; Dieserud, Gudrun

    2010-08-06

    In the period 1990-2006, strong and almost equivalent increases in sales figures of selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs) were observed in all Nordic countries. The sales figures of tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) dropped in Norway and Sweden in the nineties. After 2000, sales figures of TCAs have been almost constant in all Nordic countries. The potentially toxic effect of TCAs in overdose was an important reason for replacing TCAs with SSRIs when treating depression. We studied whether the rapid increase in sales of SSRIs and the corresponding decline in TCAs in the period 1990-98 were associated with a decline in suicide rates. Aggregated suicide rates for the period 1975-2006 in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) were obtained from the national causes-of-death registries. The sales figures of antidepressants were provided from the wholesale registers in each of the Nordic countries. Data were analysed using Fisher's exact test and Pearson's correlation coefficient. There was no statistical association (P = 1.0) between the increase of sales figures of SSRIs and the decline in suicide rates. There was no statistical association (P = 1.0) between the decrease in the sale figures of TCAs and change in suicide rates either. We found no evidence for the rapid increase in use of SSRIs and the corresponding decline in sales of TCAs being associated with a decline in the suicide rates in the Nordic countries in the period 1990-98. We did not find any inverse relationship between the increase in sales of SSRIs and declining suicide rates in four Nordic countries.

  4. Mortality In Rural China Declined As Health Insurance Coverage Increased, But No Evidence The Two Are Linked.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Maigeng; Liu, Shiwei; Kate Bundorf, M; Eggleston, Karen; Zhou, Sen

    2017-09-01

    Health insurance holds the promise of improving population health and survival and protecting people from catastrophic health spending. Yet evidence from lower- and middle-income countries on the impact of health insurance is limited. We investigated whether insurance expansion reduced adult mortality in rural China, taking advantage of differences across Chinese counties in the timing of the introduction of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS). We assembled and analyzed newly collected data on NCMS implementation, linked to data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on cause-specific, age-standardized death rates and variables specific to county-year combinations for seventy-two counties in the period 2004-12. While mortality rates declined among rural residents during this period, we found little evidence that the expansion of health insurance through the NCMS contributed to this decline. However, our relatively large standard errors leave open the possibility that the NCMS had effects on mortality that we could not detect. Moreover, mortality benefits might arise only after many years of accumulated coverage. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  5. Ohia forest decline: its spread and severity in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwin Q. P. Petteys; Robert E. Burgan; Robert E. Nelson

    1975-01-01

    Ohia forest decline–its severity and rate of spread–was studied by aerial photographic techniques on a 197,000-acre (80,000-ha) portion of the island of Hawaii. In 1954, only 300 acres (121 ha) showed signs of severe decline; by 1972, the acreage of severely affected forest had increased to 85,200 acres (34,480 ha). Rate of decline and current severity were related to...

  6. Surveillance for Violent Deaths - National Violent Death Reporting System, 17 States, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Bridget H; Fowler, Katherine A; Jack, Shane P D; Betz, Carter J; Blair, Janet M

    2016-08-19

    In 2013, more than 57,000 persons died in the United States as a result of violence-related injuries. This report summarizes data from CDC's National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) regarding violent deaths from 17 U.S. states for 2013. Results are reported by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, marital status, location of injury, method of injury, circumstances of injury, and other selected characteristics. 2013. NVDRS collects data from participating states regarding violent deaths obtained from death certificates, coroner/medical examiner reports, law enforcement reports, and secondary sources (e.g., child fatality review team data, supplemental homicide reports, hospital data, and crime laboratory data). This report includes data from 17 states that collected statewide data for 2013 (Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, North Carolina, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia, and Wisconsin). NVDRS collates documents for each death and links deaths that are related (e.g., multiple homicides, a homicide followed by a suicide, or multiple suicides) from a single incident. For 2013, a total of 18,765 fatal incidents involving 19,251 deaths were captured by NVDRS in the 17 states included in this report. The majority (66.2%) of deaths were suicides, followed by homicides (23.2%), deaths of undetermined intent (8.8%), deaths involving legal intervention (1.2%) (i.e., deaths caused by law enforcement and other persons with legal authority to use deadly force, excluding legal executions), and unintentional firearm deaths (Revision [ICD-10] and does not denote the lawfulness or legality of the circumstances surrounding a death caused by law enforcement.) Suicides occurred at higher rates among males, non-Hispanic whites, American Indian/Alaska Natives, persons aged 45-64 years, and males aged ≥75 years. Suicides were preceded primarily by a mental health, intimate partner, or physical

  7. Respiratory induced heart rate variability during slow mechanical ventilation Marker to exclude brain death patients

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jurák, Pavel; Halámek, Josef; Vondra, Vlastimil; Kružliak, P.; Šrámek, V.; Cundrle, I.; Leinveber, P.; Adamek, M.; Zvoníček, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 129, 7-8 (2017), s. 251-258 ISSN 0043-5325 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP103/11/0933; GA MŠk(CZ) LO1212; GA MŠk ED0017/01/01; GA MZd NS10105 Institutional support: RVO:68081731 Keywords : critical illness * sedation * brain death * respiratory rate variability * heart rate variability * mechanical ventilation Subject RIV: FS - Medical Facilities ; Equipment OBOR OECD: Medical engineering Impact factor: 0.974, year: 2016

  8. Road deaths in the Netherlands. [Previously known as: Road fatalities in The Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2011-01-01

    This fact sheet outlines the development of the number of road deaths in the Netherlands since 1950. After a rise in the 1950s and 1960s, the number of road deaths in the Netherlands has shown a gradual decline since 1973. In 2016, there were 629 road deaths in the Netherlands. After the years of

  9. Comparison of hurricane exposure methods and associations with county fetal death rates, adjusting for environmental quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adverse effects of hurricanes are increasing as coastal populations grow and events become more severe. Hurricane exposure during pregnancy can influence fetal death rates through mechanisms related to healthcare, infrastructure disruption, nutrition, and injury. Estimation of hu...

  10. Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David

    2017-01-20

    If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart

  11. Dummy (pacifier) use and sudden infant death syndrome: Potential advantages and disadvantages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horne, R.S.C.; Moon, R.Y; L'Hoir, M.P.; Blair, P.S.

    2014-01-01

    The large decline in deaths due to the sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) in the last 20 years in many countries is largely due to risk-reduction advice resulting from observational studies that examined the relationship between infant care practices and SIDS. Most of this advice remains largely

  12. The relationship between sales of SSRI, TCA and suicide rates in the Nordic countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahl Per-Henrik

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the period 1990-2006, strong and almost equivalent increases in sales figures of selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs were observed in all Nordic countries. The sales figures of tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs dropped in Norway and Sweden in the nineties. After 2000, sales figures of TCAs have been almost constant in all Nordic countries. The potentially toxic effect of TCAs in overdose was an important reason for replacing TCAs with SSRIs when treating depression. We studied whether the rapid increase in sales of SSRIs and the corresponding decline in TCAs in the period 1990-98 were associated with a decline in suicide rates. Methods Aggregated suicide rates for the period 1975-2006 in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden were obtained from the national causes-of-death registries. The sales figures of antidepressants were provided from the wholesale registers in each of the Nordic countries. Data were analysed using Fisher's exact test and Pearson's correlation coefficient. Results There was no statistical association (P = 1.0 between the increase of sales figures of SSRIs and the decline in suicide rates. There was no statistical association (P = 1.0 between the decrease in the sale figures of TCAs and change in suicide rates either. Conclusions We found no evidence for the rapid increase in use of SSRIs and the corresponding decline in sales of TCAs being associated with a decline in the suicide rates in the Nordic countries in the period 1990-98. We did not find any inverse relationship between the increase in sales of SSRIs and declining suicide rates in four Nordic countries.

  13. Outcomes of chronic dialysis in Korean children with respect to survival rates and causes of death

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Hye Jin; Han, Kyoung Hee; Cho, Min Hyun; Park, Young Seo; Kang, Hee Gyung; Cheong, Hae Il; Ha, Il Soo

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Adult Korean patients on chronic dialysis have a 9-year survival rate of 50%, with cardiovascular problems being the most significant cause of death. The 2011 annual report of the North American Pediatric Renal Trials and Collaborative Studies group reported 3-year survival rates of 93.4% and relatively poorer survival in younger patients. Methods In this study, we have reviewed data from Korean Pediatric Chronic Kidney Disease Registry from 2002 to 2010 to assess survival rates and c...

  14. Decline in mortality with the Belize Integrated Patient-Centred Country Wide Health Information System (BHIS) with embedded program management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graven, Michael; Allen, Peter; Smith, Ian; MacDonald, Noni E

    2013-10-01

    Belize deployed a country-wide fully integrated patient centred health information system with eight embedded disease management algorithms and simple analytics in 2007 for $4 (Cad)/citizen. This study evaluated BHIS uptake by health care workers, and pre and post BHIS deployment mortality in selected areas and public health care expenditures. BHIS encounter data were compared to encounter data from required Ministry of Health reports from licensed health care entities. De-identified vital statistics death data for the eight BHIS protocol disease domains and three non-protocol domains were compared from 2005 to 2011. Belize population data came from the Statistical Institute of Belize (2005-2009) and from Belize census (2010) and estimate (2011). Public health system expenditures were compared by fiscal years (2000-2012). BHIS captured over 90% healthcare encounters by year one, 95% by year two. Mortality rates decreased in the eight BHIS protocol domains (each 2005 vs. 2011, all p<0.02) vs. an increase or little change in the three domains without protocols. Hypertension related deaths dropped from 1st cause of death in 2003 to 9th by 2010. Public expenditures on healthcare steadily rose until 2009 but then declined slightly for the next 3 years. For modest investment, BHIS was well accepted nationwide and following deployment, mortality in the eight BHIS disease management algorithm domains declined significantly and expenditures on public healthcare stabilized. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Decline curve based models for predicting natural gas well performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Kamari

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and decision tree (DT method for the prediction of cumulative gas production as well as initial decline rate multiplied by time as a function of the Arps' decline curve exponent and ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate. It was concluded that the results obtained based on the models developed in current study are in satisfactory agreement with the actual gas well production data. Furthermore, the results of comparative study performed demonstrates that the LSSVM strategy is superior to the other models investigated for the prediction of both cumulative gas production, and initial decline rate multiplied by time.

  16. Heart rate variability and QT dispersion study in brain death patients and comatose patients with normal brainstem function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vakilian, A.R.; Iranmanesh, F.; Nadimi, A.E.; Kahnali, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    To compare heart rate variability (HRV) and QT dispersion in comatose patients with normal brainstem function and with brain death. Fourteen brain death patients with clinical signs of imminent brain death and 15 comatose patients were examined by neurologist in intensive care unit. HRV, RR interval and QT dispersion on ECG were assessed for 24 hours in both groups. Independent t-test and chi-square test were used for statistical analysis to determine significance which was set at p < 0.05. According to Holter findings, mean of standard deviation of RR-interval in the comatose and brain death groups was 48.33 and 35 respectively (p = 0.045). Mean of covariance coefficient of RR-interval was 0.065 in the comatose group and 0.043 in the brain deaths (p = 0.006). QT dispersion was not significant difference in two groups. HRV and RR-interval analysis appeared as an early finding for the diagnosis of brainstem death in comparison to comatose patients with normal brainstem function. QT dispersion had not significant in this regard. (author)

  17. Hepatic enzyme decline after pediatric blunt trauma: a tool for timing child abuse?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, Amy L; Lindberg, Daniel M; Burke, Bonnie L; Shults, Justine; Holmes, James F

    2008-09-01

    Previous research in adult patients with blunt hepatic injuries has suggested a pattern of serum hepatic transaminase concentration decline. Evaluating this decline after pediatric blunt hepatic trauma could establish parameters for estimating the time of inflicted injuries. Deviation from a consistent transaminase resolution pattern could indicate a developing complication. Retrospective review of pediatric patients with injuries including blunt liver trauma admitted to one of four urban level 1 trauma centers from 1990 to 2000. Cases were excluded for shock, death within 48 h, complications, or inability to determine injury time. Transaminase concentration decline was modeled by individual patients, by injury grade, and as a ratio with regard to injury time. One hundred and seventy-six patients met inclusion criteria. The rate of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) clearance changed significantly over time. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) fell more slowly. Of the 118 patients who had multiple measurements of AST, for 112 (95%) the first concentration obtained was the highest. When ALT was greater than AST, the injury was older than 12h (97% specificity (95% CI, 95-99%), sensitivity 42% (95% CI, 33-50%)). Patients with enzymes that rose after 14 h post-injury were more likely to develop complications (RR=24, 95% CI 10-58). Hepatic transaminases rise rapidly after uncomplicated blunt liver injury, then fall predictably. Persistently stable or increasing concentrations may indicate complications. ALT>AST indicates subacute injury.

  18. Perceived Fall Risk and Functional Decline: Gender Differences in Patient's Willingness to Discuss Fall Risk, Fall History, or to Have a Home Safety Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Marna Rayl; Moore, Elizabeth C; Nguyen, Michael C; Stello, Brian; Goldberg, Arnold; Barraco, Robert D; Porter, Bernadette G; Kurt, Anita; Dusza, Stephen W; Kane, Bryan G

    2016-06-01

    The CDC reports that among older adults, falls are the leading cause of injury-related death and rates of fall-related fractures among older women are twice those of men. We set out to 1) determine patient perceptions (analyzed by gender) about their perceived fall risk compared to their actual risk for functional decline and death and 2) to report their comfort level in discussing their fall history or a home safety plan with their provider. Elders who presented to the Emergency Department (ED†) were surveyed. The survey included demographics, the Falls Efficacy Scale (FES) and the Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES); both validated surveys measuring fall concern and functional decline. Females had higher FES scores (mean 12.3, SD 5.9) than males (mean 9.7, SD 5.9 p = .007) in the 146 surveys analyzed. Females were more likely to report an increased fear of falling, and almost three times more likely to have a VES score of 3 or greater than males (OR = 2.86, 95% CI: 1.17-7.00, p = .02). A strong correlation was observed between FES and VES scores (r = 0.80, p fall risk with a provider; there was no difference between genders (p = .57). In this study, irrespective of gender, there appears to be a high association between subjects' perceived fall risk and risk for functional decline and death. The majority of patients are likely willing to discuss their fall risk with their provider. These findings may suggest a meaningful opportunity for fall risk mitigation in this setting.

  19. Recent trends in mortality in Australia--an analysis of the causes of death through the application of life table techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, S K

    1992-05-01

    "The paper examines the post-1971 reduction in Australian mortality in light of data on causes of death. Multiple-decrement life tables for eleven leading causes of death by sex are calculated and the incidence of each cause of death is presented in terms of the values of the life table functions. The study found that in the overall decline in mortality over the last 20 years significant changes occurred in the contribution of the various causes to total mortality.... The sex-age-cause-specific incidence of mortality changed and the median age at death increased for all causes except for deaths due to motor-vehicle accidents for both sexes and suicide for males. The paper also deciphers the gains in the expectation of life at birth over various time periods and the sex-differentials in the expectation of life at birth at a point in time in terms of the contributions made by the various sex-age-cause-specific mortality rates." excerpt

  20. Why has the continuous decline in German suicide rates stopped in 2007?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich Hegerl

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Whereas German suicide rates had a clear decreasing tendency between 1991 and 2006, they increased from 2007 to 2010. Deeper analyses of suicide data might help to understand better this change. The aim of this study was to analyze 1 whether recent trends can be related to changes in specific suicide methods and diverge by gender and age; 2 whether the decrease of suicide rates before 2007 as well as the increase from 2007 to 2010 are driven by the same suicide method. METHODS: Analyses were based on suicide data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. For 1998-2010, 136.583 suicide cases of men and women with known age and suicide method could be identified. These data were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis, allowing identification of the best fitting point in time ("joinpoint" at which the suicide rate significantly changes in magnitude or direction. RESULTS: The national downward trend between 1998 and 2007 was mainly due to corresponding changes in self-poisoning by other means than drugs (e.g., pesticides (annual percentage change (APC ≤ -4.33, drowning (APC ≤ -2.73, hanging (APC ≤ -2.69 and suicides by firearms (APC ≤ -1.46 in both genders. Regarding the overall increase of age-adjusted suicide rates in Germany 2007-2010, mainly the increase of self-poisoning (e.g., by drugs and "being overrun" (APC ≥ 1.50 contributed to this trend. LIMITATIONS: The true suicide rates might have been underestimated because of errors in the official death certificates. CONCLUSIONS: Increase in suicide rates in Germany since 2007 went along with corresponding changes for "being overrun" and "self-poisoning". Copycat suicides following the railway suicide of the goalkeeper Robert Enke partly contributed to the results. Thus, prevention of Werther effects and limitation of the availability of high pack sizes for drugs are of special relevance for the reversal of this trend.

  1. A hospital-based palliative care service for patients with advanced organ failure in sub-Saharan Africa reduces admissions and increases home death rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desrosiers, Taylor; Cupido, Clint; Pitout, Elizabeth; van Niekerk, Lindi; Badri, Motasim; Gwyther, Liz; Harding, Richard

    2014-04-01

    Despite emerging data of cost savings under palliative care in various regions, no such data have been generated in response to the high burden of terminal illness in Africa. This evaluation of a novel hospital-based palliative care service for patients with advanced organ failure in urban South Africa aimed to determine whether the service reduces admissions and increases home death rates compared with the same fixed time period of standard hospital care. Data on admissions and place of death were extracted from routine hospital activity records for a fixed period before death, using standard patient daily expense rates. Data from the first 56 consecutive deaths under the new service (intervention group) were compared with 48 consecutive deaths among patients immediately before the new service (historical controls). Among the intervention and control patients, 40 of 56 (71.4%) and 47 of 48 (97.9%), respectively, had at least one admission (P home death was achieved by 33 of 56 (58.9%) and nine of 48 (18.8%), respectively (P ≤ 0.001). These data demonstrate that an outpatient hospital-based service reduced admissions and improved the rate of home deaths and offers a feasible and cost-effective model for such settings. Copyright © 2014 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Pretreatment CD4 cell slope and progression to AIDS or death in HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy--the CASCADE collaboration: a collaboration of 23 cohort studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolbers, Marcel; Babiker, Abdel; Sabin, Caroline; Young, Jim; Dorrucci, Maria; Chêne, Geneviève; Mussini, Cristina; Porter, Kholoud; Bucher, Heiner C.; del Amo, Julia; Meyer, Laurence; Pillay, Deenan; Prins, Maria; Rosinska, Magda; Touloumi, Giota; Lodi, Sara; Coughlin, Kate; Walker, Sarah; Darbyshire, Janet; de Luca, Andrea; Fisher, Martin; Muga, Roberto; Kaldor, John; Kelleher, Tony; Ramacciotti, Tim; Gelgor, Linda; Cooper, David; Smith, Don; Gill, John; Jørgensen, Louise Bruun; Nielsen, Claus; Lutsar, Irja; Dabis, Francois; Thiebaut, Rodolphe; Masquelier, Bernard; Costagliola, Dominique; Guiguet, Marguerite; Vanhems, Philippe; Chaix, Marie-Laure; Ghosn, Jade; Boufassa, Faroudy; Hamouda, Osamah; Kucherer, Claudia; Pantazis, Nikos; Hatzakis, Angelos; Paraskevis, Dimitrios; Karafoulidoua, Anastasia; van der Helm, Jannie; Geskus, Ronald; Schuitemaker, Hanneke

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: CD4 cell count is a strong predictor of the subsequent risk of AIDS or death in HIV-infected patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is not known whether the rate of CD4 cell decline prior to therapy is related to prognosis and should, therefore, influence the

  3. Trends, productivity losses, and associated medical conditions among toxoplasmosis deaths in the United States, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Patricia L; Kuo, Tony; Javanbakht, Marjan; Sorvillo, Frank

    2014-11-01

    Few studies have quantified toxoplasmosis mortality, associated medical conditions, and productivity losses in the United States. We examined national multiple cause of death data and estimated productivity losses caused by toxoplasmosis during 2000-2010. A matched case-control analysis examined associations between comorbid medical conditions and toxoplasmosis deaths. In total, 789 toxoplasmosis deaths were identified during the 11-year study period. Blacks and Hispanics had the highest toxoplasmosis mortality compared with whites. Several medical conditions were associated with toxoplasmosis deaths, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), lymphoma, leukemia, and connective tissue disorders. The number of toxoplasmosis deaths with an HIV codiagnosis declined from 2000 to 2010; the numbers without such a codiagnosis remained static. Cumulative disease-related productivity losses for the 11-year period were nearly $815 million. Although toxoplasmosis mortality has declined in the last decade, the infection remains costly and is an important cause of preventable death among non-HIV subgroups. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  4. The work-related fatal injury study: numbers, rates and trends of work-related fatal injuries in New Zealand 1985-1994.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feyer, A M; Langley, J; Howard, M; Horsburgh, S; Wright, C; Alsop, J; Cryer, C

    2001-01-26

    To determine the number and rates of work-related fatal injuries by employment status, occupation, industry, age and gender in New Zealand 1985-1994. Potential cases of work-related injury deaths of persons aged 15-84 years were identified from the national electronic mortality data files. Main exclusions were deaths due to suicide and deaths due to motor vehicle crashes. The circumstances of the deaths of each fatal incident meeting inclusion criteria were then reviewed directly from coronial files to determine work-relatedness. The rate of work-related fatal injury in New Zealand was 5.03/100000 workers per year for the study period. There was a significant decline in crude rate over the study period. However, this was in substantial part accounted for by changes in occupation and industry mix. Older workers, male workers, self-employed workers, and particular occupational groups, all had substantially elevated rates. Agricultural and helicopter pilots, forestry workers and fishery workers had the highest rates. Farmers, forestry workers, and fishery workers also had high numbers of deaths, together accounting for nearly 40% of all deaths. This study has demonstrated that work-related fatal injury remains a pressing problem for New Zealand. Several areas in urgent need of prevention efforts were highlighted.

  5. Setting the stage for medieval plague: Pre-black death trends in survival and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2015-11-01

    The 14(th) -century Black Death was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history, killing tens of millions of people in a short period of time. It is not clear why mortality rates during the epidemic were so high. One possibility is that the affected human populations were particularly stressed in the 14(th) century, perhaps as a result of repeated famines in areas such as England. This project examines survival and mortality in two pre-Black Death time periods, 11-12(th) centuries vs 13(th) century CE, to determine if demographic conditions were deteriorating before the epidemic occurred. This study is done using a sample of individuals from several London cemeteries that have been dated, in whole or in part, either to the 11-12(th) centuries (n = 339) or 13(th) century (n = 258). Temporal trends in survivorship and mortality are assessed via Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and by modeling time period as a covariate affecting the Gompertz hazard of adult mortality. The age-at-death distributions from the two pre-Black Death time periods are significantly different, with fewer older adults in 13(th) century. The results of Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicate reductions in survival before the Black Death, with significantly lower survival in the 13(th) century (Mantel Cox p < 0.001). Last, hazard analysis reveals increases in mortality rates before the Black Death. Together, these results suggest that health in general was declining in the 13(th) century, and this might have led to high mortality during the Black Death. This highlights the importance of considering human context to understand disease in past and living human populations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Observed and Predicted Risk of Breast Cancer Death in Randomized Trials on Breast Cancer Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autier, Philippe; Boniol, Mathieu; Smans, Michel; Sullivan, Richard; Boyle, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The role of breast screening in breast cancer mortality declines is debated. Screening impacts cancer mortality through decreasing the number of advanced cancers with poor diagnosis, while cancer treatment works through decreasing the case-fatality rate. Hence, reductions in cancer death rates thanks to screening should directly reflect reductions in advanced cancer rates. We verified whether in breast screening trials, the observed reductions in the risk of breast cancer death could be predicted from reductions of advanced breast cancer rates. The Greater New York Health Insurance Plan trial (HIP) is the only breast screening trial that reported stage-specific cancer fatality for the screening and for the control group separately. The Swedish Two-County trial (TCT)) reported size-specific fatalities for cancer patients in both screening and control groups. We computed predicted numbers of breast cancer deaths, from which we calculated predicted relative risks (RR) and (95% confidence intervals). The Age trial in England performed its own calculations of predicted relative risk. The observed and predicted RR of breast cancer death were 0.72 (0.56-0.94) and 0.98 (0.77-1.24) in the HIP trial, and 0.79 (0.78-1.01) and 0.90 (0.80-1.01) in the Age trial. In the TCT, the observed RR was 0.73 (0.62-0.87), while the predicted RR was 0.89 (0.75-1.05) if overdiagnosis was assumed to be negligible and 0.83 (0.70-0.97) if extra cancers were excluded. In breast screening trials, factors other than screening have contributed to reductions in the risk of breast cancer death most probably by reducing the fatality of advanced cancers in screening groups. These factors were the better management of breast cancer patients and the underreporting of breast cancer as the underlying cause of death. Breast screening trials should publish stage-specific fatalities observed in each group.

  7. The problem of fuzzy cause-specific death rates in mortality context analysis: the case of Panama City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, S; Gans, P

    1993-05-01

    In studies of mortality, small and fluctuating numbers of deaths are problems which are caused by infrequent reporting and small spatial unit reporting. To use Panama City as an example, the paper will introduce a Monte Carlo simulation which allows for the analysis of mortality even with small absolute numbers. In addition, Panama City will be used as an example where good medical care is available in every city district, so that social class differences between the districts have a negligible effect on most cause-specific death rates and infant mortality.

  8. Trends in Modifiable Risk Factors Are Associated With Declining Incidence of Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Acute Coronary Heart Disease in a Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannsverk, Jan; Wilsgaard, Tom; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Rasmussen, Knut; Thelle, Dag S; Njølstad, Inger; Hopstock, Laila Arnesdatter; Bønaa, Kaare Harald

    2016-01-05

    Few studies have used individual person data to study whether contemporary trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease are associated with changes in modifiable coronary risk factors. We identified 29 582 healthy men and women ≥25 years of age who participated in 3 population surveys conducted between 1994 and 2008 in Tromsø, Norway. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for coronary heart disease overall, out-of-hospital sudden death, and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. We measured coronary risk factors at each survey and estimated the relationship between changes in risk factors and changes in incidence trends. A total of 1845 participants had an incident acute coronary heart disease event during 375 064 person-years of follow-up from 1994 to 2010. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of total coronary heart disease decreased by 3% (95% confidence interval, 2.0-4.0; Pcoronary risk factors accounted for 66% (95% confidence interval, 48-97; Pcoronary heart disease. Favorable changes in cholesterol contributed 32% to the decline, whereas blood pressure, smoking, and physical activity each contributed 14%, 13%, and 9%, respectively. We observed a substantial decline in the incidence of coronary heart disease that was driven by reductions in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in modifiable coronary risk factors accounted for 66% of the decline in coronary heart disease events. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  9. Predictive value of 6-month decline in ADAS-cog for survival without severe Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmer, Catherine; Andrieu, Sandrine; Pérès, Karine; Orgogozo, Jean-Marc; Vellas, Bruno; Dartigues, Jean-François

    2007-01-01

    To determine the predictive value of the 6-month evolution of the ADAS-cog score in initially mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients on the risk of death or severe dementia (MMSE ADAS-cog scale in the Real.fr study, a cohort of AD patients. Six classes of ADAS-cog evolution were distinguished, from the severest deterioration (decline >or=7 points) to the greatest cognitive improvement (gain >or=4 points). Among 536 AD patients, 53 (9.9%) had a 6-month decline of 7 points or more. This group with the severest deterioration was significantly associated with the risk of severe dementia or death at 2 years (relative risk, RR = 3.8, 95% confidence interval, CI = 2.1-6.8), even after adjustment for baseline MMSE, disability and ADAS-cog score (RR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.4-5.0). In addition, subjects with a decline by at least 4 points were also at greater risk of severe dementia. These results confirm the value of the ADAS-cog scale as a judgement criterion in clinical trials since it is a good surrogate marker of long-term prognosis. The proportion of fast decliners on the ADAS-cog could be a helpful judgement criterion for future trials in AD.

  10. Suicide on Death Row.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tartaro, Christine; Lester, David

    2016-11-01

    Despite the level of supervision of inmates on death row, their suicide rate is higher than both the male prison population in the United States and the population of males over the age of 14 in free society. This study presents suicide data for death row inmates from 1978 through 2010. For the years 1978 through 2010, suicide rates on death row were higher than that for the general population of males over the age of 15 and for state prisons for all but 2 years. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  11. Recent declines in cancer incidence: related to the Great Recession?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Canchola, Alison J; Nelson, David O; Keegan, Theresa H M; Clarke, Christina A; Cheng, Iona; Shariff-Marco, Salma; DeRouen, Mindy; Catalano, Ralph; Satariano, William A; Davidson-Allen, Kathleen; Glaser, Sally L

    2017-02-01

    In recent years, cancer case counts in the U.S. underwent a large, rapid decline-an unexpected change given population growth for older persons at highest cancer risk. As these declines coincided with the Great Recession, we examined whether they were related to economic conditions. Using California Cancer Registry data from California's 30 most populous counties, we analyzed trends in cancer incidence during pre-recession (1996-2007) and recession/recovery (2008-2012) periods for all cancers combined and the ten most common sites. We evaluated the recession's association with rates using a multifactorial index that measured recession impact, and modeled associations between case counts and county-level unemployment rates using Poisson regression. Yearly cancer incidence rate declines were greater during the recession/recovery (3.3% among males, 1.4% among females) than before (0.7 and 0.5%, respectively), particularly for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers. Lower case counts, especially for prostate and liver cancer among males and breast cancer, melanoma, and ovarian cancer among females, were associated with higher unemployment rates, irrespective of time period, but independent of secular effects. The associations for melanoma translated up to a 3.6% decrease in cases with each 1% increase in unemployment. Incidence declines were not greater in counties with higher recession impact index. Although recent declines in incidence of certain cancers are not differentially impacted by economic conditions related to the Great Recession relative to pre-recession conditions, the large recent absolute declines in the case counts of some cancer may be attributable to the large declines in unemployment in the recessionary period. This may occur through decreased engagement in preventive health behaviors, particularly for clinically less urgent cancers. Continued monitoring of trends is important to detect any rises in incidence rates as deferred diagnoses come to

  12. Trends, Productivity Losses, and Associated Medical Conditions Among Toxoplasmosis Deaths in the United States, 2000–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Patricia L.; Kuo, Tony; Javanbakht, Marjan; Sorvillo, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Few studies have quantified toxoplasmosis mortality, associated medical conditions, and productivity losses in the United States. We examined national multiple cause of death data and estimated productivity losses caused by toxoplasmosis during 2000–2010. A matched case–control analysis examined associations between comorbid medical conditions and toxoplasmosis deaths. In total, 789 toxoplasmosis deaths were identified during the 11-year study period. Blacks and Hispanics had the highest toxoplasmosis mortality compared with whites. Several medical conditions were associated with toxoplasmosis deaths, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), lymphoma, leukemia, and connective tissue disorders. The number of toxoplasmosis deaths with an HIV codiagnosis declined from 2000 to 2010; the numbers without such a codiagnosis remained static. Cumulative disease-related productivity losses for the 11-year period were nearly $815 million. Although toxoplasmosis mortality has declined in the last decade, the infection remains costly and is an important cause of preventable death among non-HIV subgroups. PMID:25200264

  13. Thinner cortex in patients with subjective cognitive decline is associated with steeper decline of memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Sander C J; Slot, Rosalinde E; Tijms, Betty M; Bouwman, Femke; Benedictus, Marije R; Overbeek, Jozefien M; Koene, Teddy; Vrenken, Hugo; Scheltens, Philip; Barkhof, Frederik; van der Flier, Wiesje M

    2018-01-01

    We aimed to investigate associations between regional cortical thickness and rate of decline over time in 4 cognitive domains in patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). We included 233 SCD patients with the total number of 654 neuropsychological assessments (median = 3, range = 2-8) and available baseline magnetic resonance imaging from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (125 males, age: 63 ± 9, Mini-Mental State Examination score: 28 ± 2). We assessed longitudinal cognitive functioning at baseline and follow-up in 4 cognitive domains (composite Z-scores): memory, attention, executive function, and language. Thickness (millimeter) was estimated using FreeSurfer for frontal, temporal, parietal, cingulate, and occipital cortices. We used linear mixed models to estimate effects of cortical thickness on cognitive performance (dependent variables). There were no associations between cortical thickness and baseline cognition, but a faster subsequent rate of memory loss was associated with thinner cortex of the frontal [β (SE) = 0.20 (0.07)], temporal [β (SE) = 0.18 (0.07)], and occipital [β (SE) = 0.22 (0.09)] cortices (all p cognitive decline related to neurodegenerative diseases, most prominently Alzheimer's disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. CDC WONDER: Mortality - Infant Deaths

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Mortality - Infant Deaths (from Linked Birth / Infant Death Records) online databases on CDC WONDER provide counts and rates for deaths of children under 1 year...

  15. Change in the structures, dynamics and disease-related mortality rates of the population of Qatari nationals: 2007-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Thani, Mohamed H; Sadoun, Eman; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Khalifa, Shamseldin A; Sayegh, Suzan; Badawi, Alaa

    2014-12-01

    Developing effective public health policies and strategies for interventions necessitates an assessment of the structure, dynamics, disease rates and causes of death in a population. Lately, Qatar has undertaken development resurgence in health and economy that resulted in improving the standard of health services and health status of the entire Qatari population (i.e., Qatari nationals and non-Qatari residents). No study has attempted to evaluate the population structure/dynamics and recent changes in disease-related mortality rates among Qatari nationals. The present study examines the population structure/dynamics and the related changes in the cause-specific mortality rates and disease prevalence in the Qatari nationals. This is a retrospective, analytic descriptive analysis covering a period of 5years (2007-2011) and utilizes a range of data sources from the State of Qatar including the population structure, disease-related mortality rates, and the prevalence of a range of chronic and infectious diseases. Factors reflecting population dynamics such as crude death (CDR), crude birth (CBR), total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality (IMR) rates were also calculated. The Qatari nationals is an expansive population with an annual growth rate of ∼4% and a stable male:female ratio. The CDR declined by 15% within the study period, whereas the CBR was almost stable. The total disease-specific death rate, however, was decreased among the Qatari nationals by 23% due to the decline in mortality rates attributed to diseases of the blood and immune system (43%), nervous system (44%) and cardiovascular system (41%). There was a high prevalence of a range of chronic diseases, whereas very low frequencies of the infectious diseases within the study population. Public health strategies, approaches and programs developed to reduce disease burden and the related death, should be tailored to target the population of Qatari nationals which exhibits characteristics that vary from

  16. An examination of black/white differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fenelon

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The rate of mortality increase with age among adults is typically used as a measure of the rate of functional decline associated with aging or senescence. While black and white populations differ in the level of mortality, mortality also rises less rapidly with age for blacks than for whites, leading to the well-known black/white mortality "crossover". OBJECTIVE This paper investigates black/white differences in the rate of mortality increase with age for major causes of death in order to examine the factors responsible for the black/white crossover. METHODS The analysis considers two explanations for the crossover: selective survival and age misreporting. Mortality is modeled using a Gompertz model for 11 causes of death from ages 50-84 among blacks and whites by sex. RESULTS Mortality increases more rapidly with age for whites than for blacks for nearly all causes of death considered. The all-cause mortality rate of mortality increase is nearly two percentage points higher for whites. The analysis finds evidence for both selective survival and age misreporting, although age misreporting is a more prominent explanation among women. CONCLUSIONS The black/white mortality crossover reflects large differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase. Instead of reflecting the impact of specific causes of death, this pattern exists across many disparate disease conditions, indicating the need for a broad explanation.

  17. AN AUDIT OF MATERNAL DEATHS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basavana Gowda

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: A study of maternal death conducted to evaluate various factors responsible for maternal deaths. To identify complications in pregnancy, a childbirth which result in maternal death, and to identify opportunities for preventive intervention and understand the events leading to death; so that improving maternal health and reducing maternal mortality rate significantly. To analyze the causes and epidemiological amounts maternal mortality e.g. age parity, socioeconomic status and literacy. In order to reduce maternal mortality and to implement safe motherhood program and complications of pregnancy and to find out safe motherhood program. METHODS: The data collected was a retrograde by a proforma containing particulars of the diseased, detailed history and relatives were interviewed for additional information. The data collected was analysed. RESULTS: Maternal mortality rate in our own institution is 200/ 100,000 live births. Among 30 maternal deaths, 56% deaths (17 were among low socio - economic status, groups 60% deaths among unbooked 53.5% deaths more along illiterates evidenced by direct and indirect deaths about 25% of deaths were preventable. CONCLUSION: Maternal death is a great tragedy in the family life. It is crusade to know not just the medical cause of the death but the circumstances what makes these continued tragic death even more unacceptable is that deaths are largely preventable

  18. The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, R A; Byles, J; Magliano, D J; Mitchell, P; Anstey, K J

    2015-03-01

    Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes. Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death. Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death. Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

  19. Arterial wave reflections and kidney function decline among persons with preserved estimated glomerular filtration rate: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Jeffrey J; Katz, Ronit; Chirinos, Julio A; Jacobs, David R; Duprez, Daniel A; Peralta, Carmen A

    2016-05-01

    Differences in arterial wave reflections have been associated with increased risk for heart failure and mortality. Whether these measures are also associated with kidney function decline is not well established. Reflection magnitude (RM, defined as the ratio of the backward wave [Pb] to that of the forward wave [Pf]), augmentation index (AIx), and pulse pressure amplification (PPA) were derived from radial tonometry measures among 5232 participants free of cardiovascular disease who were enrolled in the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Kidney function was estimated by creatinine and cystatin C measurements, as well as albumin-to-creatinine ratio. We evaluated the associations of Pb, Pf, RM, AIx, and PPA with annualized estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change and rapid kidney function decline over 5 years, using generalized linear mixed models and logistic regression, respectively. Of the study participants, 48% were male, mean age was 62 years, mean eGFR and median albumin-to-creatinine ratio at baseline were 84 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and 5.3 mg/g, respectively. In demographically adjusted models, both Pb and Pf had similarly strong associations with kidney function decline; compared to those in the lowest tertiles, the persons in the highest tertiles of Pb and Pf had a 1.01 and 0.99 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year faster eGFR decline, respectively (P function decline. In conclusion, the reflected and forward wave components were similarly associated with kidney function decline, and these associations were explained by differences in systolic blood pressure. Copyright © 2016 American Society of Hypertension. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The impact of retirement on age related cognitive decline - a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Annette; Nexø, Mette Andersen; Borg, Vilhelm

    2017-07-21

    Knowledge on factors affecting the rate of cognitive decline and how to maintain cognitive functioning in old age becomes increasingly relevant. The purpose of the current study was to systematically review the evidence for the impact of retirement on cognitive functioning and on age related cognitive decline. We conducted a systematic literature review, following the principles of the PRISMA statement, of longitudinal studies on the association between retirement and cognition. Only seven studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We found weak evidence that retirement accelerates the rate of cognitive decline in crystallised abilities, but only for individuals retiring from jobs high in complexity with people. The evidence of the impact of retirement on the rate of decline in fluid cognitive abilities is conflicting. The review revealed a major knowledge gap in regards to the impact of retirement on cognitive decline. More knowledge on the association between retirement and age related cognitive decline as well as knowledge on the mechanisms behind these associations is needed.

  1. Factors associated with the decline in suicide by pesticide poisoning in Taiwan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Shu-Sen; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Eddleston, Michael

    2012-01-01

    of the workforce involved in agriculture and unemployment. We compared pesticide products banned by the Taiwanese government with products that remained on the market and pesticides that accounted for the most poisoning deaths in Taiwan. Results. Age-standardised rates of pesticide suicide showed a 67% reduction......, in Taiwan, a rapidly developing East Asian country. Methods. We conducted an ecological study using graphical approaches and Spearman's correlation coefficients to examine trends in pesticide suicide (1987-2010) in Taiwan in relation to pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticides, the proportion....... The reduction was paralleled by a 66% fall in the workforce involved in agriculture but there was no strong evidence for its association with trends in pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticide products or unemployment. The bans mostly post-dated the decline in pesticide suicides; furthermore, they did...

  2. [Association between the decline in global fertility rate and the incorporation of women to the workforce].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanelli, María de Los Ángeles; Valenzuela, María Teresa; Cárcamo, Marcela; Urquidi, Cinthya; Cavada, Gabriel; San Martín P, Pamela

    2016-05-01

    The global fertility rate (GFR) is defined as the mean number of children that a woman could have in a hypothetical cohort, not exposed to death during the fertile period. GFR has fallen from 3.4 to 1.9 children per women in the period 1970-2010. To explore the relationship between the fall in GFR and the incorporation of women to work in the period 1960-2011. Data from the National Statistics Institute was used. GRF was calculated using specific fertility rates for each year considering women aged 15 to 49 years. Work rates were obtained from yearly vital statistics reports. Between 1960 and 2011, GRF decreased from 5.5 to 1.9 in Chile. The first inflection occurred in 1970. In the same period, female workforce increased from 22.4 to 40.2%. To motivate the participation of female work-force without decrease the GRF allowing population replacement, it is suggested the need to create new public policies with benefits and support from the state.

  3. Data study of death rate and cancer incidence among Thule workers, 2005; Registerundersoegelse af doedelighed og kraeftforekomst blandt Thulearbejdere, 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juel, K. [Statens Insti. for Folkesundhed, Copenhagen (Denmark); Engholm, G.; Storm, H. [Kraeftens Bekaempelse, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2005-12-01

    January 21st, 1968, an American B52 bomber with nuclear weapons aboard crashed close to the Thule air-base in Greenland. In 1986 suspicions arose that there might be increased disease incidences and death rate among the employees at the base that were involved in the clearing operations. During 1986 - 1995, several health studies were made of the Thule workers. These studies of death rate, cancer, hospitalization, and fertility did not show any differences between the Thule workers from the clearing operations and those not involved in the clearing. The present study shows no difference in total death rate among the clearing workers compared to other workers. The same results were found for cancer mortality, circulatory diseases, pulmonary diseases, natural causes, and accidents. As the previous studies showed, the present study shows that there were a slightly less number of suicides among the clearing workers. The data analyses show with great certainty that the Thule workers as a group do not have a great excessive mortality or an increased cancer incidence caused by the aircraft crash. Thus, the present results fall in line with the previous investigations. (ln)

  4. The Impact of the Black Death on the Golden Horde: Politics, Economy, Society, Civilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uli Schamiloglu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Research objectives and materials: This essay offers an overview of the political, economic, social, and cultural consequences of the Black Death (the epidemic of bubonic plague cause by the bacteria Yersinia pestis in the territories of the Golden Horde in the 14th–15th centuries. It considers the framework which has been developed for medieval Europe and the Middle East. It considers whether there was a medieval growth in population in the Golden Horde prior to the arrival of the Black Death in the mid-14th century. It considers the level of depopulation and how it led to political instability. It notes how bubonic plague was used as a weapon by the Mongol armies. It considers economic consequences such as the decline in certain professions and crafts, the threat to the food supply, and the rising cost of labor which led to inflation. It also considers the social crisis brought about by the sudden death of substantial portions of the population. Results and novelty of the research: The rise in urbanization in the 13th to mid-14th century was followed by a collapse in the population and decline in urban centers beginning in the second half of the 14th century. The Black Death also led to population pressure as most sedentary centers declined, while at the same time certain sedentary areas escaped the plague, as could many nomadic populations who were less susceptible to disease. It also examines the decline in literary languages and the growth in religiosity. Finally, it considers the recovery in the population beginning in the mid-15th century.

  5. Fast maximum likelihood estimation of mutation rates using a birth-death process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaowei; Zhu, Hongxiao

    2015-02-07

    Since fluctuation analysis was first introduced by Luria and Delbrück in 1943, it has been widely used to make inference about spontaneous mutation rates in cultured cells. Under certain model assumptions, the probability distribution of the number of mutants that appear in a fluctuation experiment can be derived explicitly, which provides the basis of mutation rate estimation. It has been shown that, among various existing estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator usually demonstrates some desirable properties such as consistency and lower mean squared error. However, its application in real experimental data is often hindered by slow computation of likelihood due to the recursive form of the mutant-count distribution. We propose a fast maximum likelihood estimator of mutation rates, MLE-BD, based on a birth-death process model with non-differential growth assumption. Simulation studies demonstrate that, compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimator derived from the Luria-Delbrück distribution, MLE-BD achieves substantial improvement on computational speed and is applicable to arbitrarily large number of mutants. In addition, it still retains good accuracy on point estimation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Updated Death and Injury Rates of U.S. Military Personnel During the Conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    35 were related to pregnancy . Amputations A number of studies have estimated the frequency with which soldiers lost a limb either directly on the...vehicle accidents—as well as training and occupational accidents at the workplace . The average mortality rate (including all causes of death) for military

  7. Death and Dying Attitudes, Anxieties, and Fears of Certified Nursing Assistants: A Descriptive Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Josephine A.

    2010-01-01

    The critical role of Certified Nursing Assistants (CNAs) to help elderly nursing home residents' move through declining conditions or diseases to death is salient. It is important for CNAs and nursing home leaders to understand CNAs' attitudes, fears, and anxieties toward death and dying. The quantitative study investigated CNA's…

  8. Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

    1978-10-01

    This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

  9. [Maternal death: unequal risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defossez, A C; Fassin, D

    1989-01-01

    Nearly 99% of maternal deaths in the world each year occur in developing countries. New efforts have recently been undertaken to combat maternal mortality through research and action. The medical causes of such deaths are coming to be better understood, but the social mechanisms remain poorly grasped. Maternal mortality rates in developing countries are difficult to interpret because they tend to exclude all deaths not occurring in health care facilities. The countries of Europe and North America have an average maternal mortality rate of 30/100,000 live births, representing about 6000 deaths each year. The developing countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America have rates of 270-640/100,000, representing some 492,000 deaths annually. For a true comparison of the risks of maternal mortality in different countries, the risk itself and the average number of children per woman must both be considered. A Nigerian woman has 375 times greater risk of maternal death than a Swedish woman, but since she has about 4 times more children, her lifetime risk of maternal death is over 1500 times greater than that of the Swedish woman. The principal medical causes of maternal death are known: hemorrhages due to placenta previa or retroplacental hematoma, mechanical dystocias responsible for uterine rupture, toxemia with eclampsia, septicemia, and malaria. The exact weight of abortion in maternal mortality is not known but is probably large. The possible measures for improving such rates are of 3 types: control of fertility to avoid early, late, or closely spaced pregnancies; effective medical surveillance of the pregnancy to reduce the risk of malaria, toxemia, and hemorrhage, and delivery in an obstetrical facility, especially for high-risk pregnancies. Differential access to high quality health care explains much of the difference between mortality rates in urban and rural, wealthy and impoverished areas of the same country. The social determinants of high maternal mortality

  10. UV-B Radiation Contributes to Amphibian Population Declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew

    2007-05-01

    UV-B (280-315 nm) radiation is the most significant biologically damaging radiation at the terrestrial surface. At the organismal level, UV-B radiation can slow growth rates, cause immune dysfunction and result in sublethal damage. UV-B radiation can lead to mutations and cell death. Over evolutionary time, UV radiation has been an important stressor on living organisms. Natural events, including impacts from comets and asteroids, volcanic activity, supernova explosions and solar flares, can cause large-scale ozone depletion with accompanying increases in UV radiation. However, these natural events are transient. Moreover, the amount of ozone damage due to natural events depends upon a number of variables, including the magnitude of the event. This is different from modern-day human-induced production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other chemicals that deplete stratospheric ozone continuously, resulting in long-term increases in UV-B radiation at the surface of the earth. We will briefly review the effects of UV-B exposure in one group of aquatic organisms_amphibians. UV-B has been implicated as a possible factor contributing to global declines and range reductions in amphibian populations.

  11. The impact of retirement on age related cognitive decline - a systematic review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meng, Annette; Nexø, Mette Andersen; Borg, Vilhelm

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Knowledge on factors affecting the rate of cognitive decline and how to maintain cognitive functioning in old age becomes increasingly relevant. The purpose of the current study was to systematically review the evidence for the impact of retirement on cognitive functioning and on age...... related cognitive decline. METHOD: We conducted a systematic literature review, following the principles of the PRISMA statement, of longitudinal studies on the association between retirement and cognition. RESULTS: Only seven studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We found weak evidence...... that retirement accelerates the rate of cognitive decline in crystallised abilities, but only for individuals retiring from jobs high in complexity with people. The evidence of the impact of retirement on the rate of decline in fluid cognitive abilities is conflicting. CONCLUSION: The review revealed a major...

  12. Rates of death and euthanasia for cats in no-kill shelters in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimír Večerek

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Successful reduction of death and euthanasia rates requires the determination of factors related to death and euthanasia of cats in shelters. In the period from 2011 to 2015, 474 cats died and 240 had to be euthanized for health reasons in the three cat shelters monitored in our study. Altogether, death was the ultimate outcome for 33% of the cats admitted in the shelters. Out of the cats that died, 67.3% cats died within the first month and 95.4% within 6 months of admission to the shelter. Similarly, 65.0% of all euthanized cats were euthanized within the first month and 88.3% were euthanized within 6 months of admission. Since the majority of mortalities occurred shortly after admission, they more probably resulted from the cats’ poor condition at the time of admission rather than from the shelter’s environment. Females and cats younger than 6 months were at an increased risk of mortality. Autumn and summer were the seasons with the majority of fatalities. In general, the number of cats that died was almost double the number of cats that were euthanized; this suggests that attempts to cure cats were favoured over euthanasia, even in cases of serious health problems. In the fields of cat welfare and veterinary healthcare, the results enable increased attention to be focused on the determined risk factors and thus are an important prerequisite for a successful solution to the problem of the high number of deaths and instances of euthanasia of cats in shelters.

  13. Causes of death among children aged 5-14 years in the WHO European Region: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyu, Hmwe H; Stein, Claudia E; Boschi Pinto, Cynthia; Rakovac, Ivo; Weber, Martin W; Dannemann Purnat, Tina; Amuah, Joseph E; Glenn, Scott D; Cercy, Kelly; Biryukov, Stan; Gold, Audra L; Chew, Adrienne; Mooney, Meghan D; O'Rourke, Kevin F; Sligar, Amber; Murray, Christopher J L; Mokdad, Ali H; Naghavi, Mohsen

    2018-05-01

    The mortality burden in children aged 5-14 years in the WHO European Region has not been comprehensively studied. We assessed the distribution and trends of the main causes of death among children aged 5-9 years and 10-14 years from 1990 to 2016, for 51 countries in the WHO European Region. We used data from vital registration systems, cancer registries, and police records from 1980 to 2016 to estimate cause-specific mortality using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. For children aged 5-9 years, all-cause mortality rates (per 100 000 population) were estimated to be 46·3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 45·1-47·5) in 1990 and 19·5 (18·1-20·9) in 2016, reflecting a 58·0% (54·7-61·1) decline. For children aged 10-14 years, all-cause mortality rates (per 100 000 population) were 37·9 (37·3-38·6) in 1990 and 20·1 (18·8-21·3) in 2016, reflecting a 47·1% (43·8-50·4) decline. In 2016, we estimated 10 740 deaths (95% UI 9970-11 542) in children aged 5-9 years and 10 279 deaths (9652-10 897) in those aged 10-14 years in the WHO European Region. Injuries (road injuries, drowning, and other injuries) caused 4163 deaths (3820-4540; 38·7% of total deaths) in children aged 5-9 years and 4468 deaths (4162-4812; 43·5% of total) in those aged 10-14 years in 2016. Neoplasms caused 2161 deaths (1872-2406; 20·1% of total deaths) in children aged 5-9 years and 1943 deaths (1749-2101; 18·9% of total deaths) in those aged 10-14 years in 2016. Notable differences existed in cause-specific mortality rates between the European subregions, from a two-times difference for leukaemia to a 20-times difference for lower respiratory infections between the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and EU15 (the 15 member states that had joined the European Union before May, 2004). Marked progress has been made in reducing the mortality burden in children aged 5-14 years over the past 26 years in the WHO European Region. More deaths could be prevented, especially in

  14. Why the racial gap in life expectancy is declining in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firebaugh, Glenn; Acciai, Francesco; Noah, Aggie J.; Prather, Christopher; Nau, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Blacks have lower life expectancy than whites in the United States. That disparity could be due to racial differences in the causes of death, with blacks being more likely to die of causes that affect the young, or it could be due to differences in the average ages of blacks and whites who die of the same cause. Prior studies fail to distinguish these two possibilities. OBJECTIVE In this study we determine how much of the 2000–10 reduction in the racial gap in life expectancy resulted from narrowing differences in the cause-specific mean age at death for blacks and whites, as opposed to changing cause-specific probabilities for blacks and whites. METHOD We introduce a method for separating the difference-in-probabilities and difference-inage components of group disparities in life expectancy. RESULTS Based on the new method, we find that 60% of the decline in the racial gap in life expectancy from 2000 to 2010 was attributable to reduction in the age component, largely because of declining differences in the age at which blacks and whites die of chronic diseases. CONCLUSION Our findings shed light on the sources of the declining racial gap in life expectancy in the United States, and help to identify where advances need to be made to achieve the goal of eliminating racial disparities in life expectancy. PMID:25580083

  15. Why the racial gap in life expectancy is declining in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glenn Firebaugh

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Blacks have lower life expectancy than whites in the United States. That disparity could be due to racial differences in the causes of death, with blacks being more likely to die of causes that affect the young, or it could be due to differences in the average ages of blacks and whites who die of the same cause. Prior studies fail to distinguish these two possibilities. Objective: In this study we determine how much of the 2000-10 reduction in the racial gap in life expectancy resulted from narrowing differences in the cause-specific mean age at death for blacks and whites, as opposed to changing cause-specific probabilities for blacks and whites. Methods: We introduce a method for separating the difference-in-probabilities and difference-in-age components of group disparities in life expectancy. Results: Based on the new method, we find that 60Š of the decline in the racial gap in life expectancy from 2000 to 2010 was attributable to reduction in the age component, largely because of declining differences in the age at which blacks and whites die of chronic diseases. Conclusions: Our findings shed light on the sources of the declining racial gap in life expectancy in the United States, and help to identify where advances need to be made to achieve the goal of eliminating racial disparities in life expectancy.

  16. With Prudhoe Bay in decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, J.M.; Pollock, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Almost every day, it seems, someone is mentioning Prudhoe Bay---its development activities, the direction of its oil production, and more recently its decline rate. Almost as frequently, someone is mentioning the number of companies abandoning exploration in Alaska. The state faces a double-edged dilemma: decline of its most important oil field and a diminished effort to find a replacement for the lost production. ARCO has seen the Prudhoe Bay decline coming for some time and has been planning for it. We have reduced staff, and ARCO and BP Exploration are finding cost-effective ways to work more closely together through such vehicles as shared services. At the same time, ARCO is continuing its high level of Alaskan exploration. This article will assess the future of Prudhoe Bay from a technical perspective, review ARCO's exploration plans for Alaska, and suggest what the state can do to encourage other companies to invest in this crucial producing region and exploratory frontier

  17. Causes of death and infant mortality rates among full-term births in the United States between 2010 and 2012: An observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bairoliya, Neha; Fink, Günther

    2018-03-01

    While the high prevalence of preterm births and its impact on infant mortality in the US have been widely acknowledged, recent data suggest that even full-term births in the US face substantially higher mortality risks compared to European countries with low infant mortality rates. In this paper, we use the most recent birth records in the US to more closely analyze the primary causes underlying mortality rates among full-term births. Linked birth and death records for the period 2010-2012 were used to identify the state- and cause-specific burden of infant mortality among full-term infants (born at 37-42 weeks of gestation). Multivariable logistic models were used to assess the extent to which state-level differences in full-term infant mortality (FTIM) were attributable to observed differences in maternal and birth characteristics. Random effects models were used to assess the relative contribution of state-level variation to FTIM. Hypothetical mortality outcomes were computed under the assumption that all states could achieve the survival rates of the best-performing states. A total of 10,175,481 infants born full-term in the US between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2012, were analyzed. FTIM rate (FTIMR) was 2.2 per 1,000 live births overall, and ranged between 1.29 (Connecticut, 95% CI 1.08, 1.53) and 3.77 (Mississippi, 95% CI 3.39, 4.19) at the state level. Zero states reached the rates reported in the 6 low-mortality European countries analyzed (FTIMR 2.75. Sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) accounted for 43% of FTIM; congenital malformations and perinatal conditions accounted for 31% and 11.3% of FTIM, respectively. The largest mortality differentials between states with good and states with poor FTIMR were found for SUDI, with particularly large risk differentials for deaths due to sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) (odds ratio [OR] 2.52, 95% CI 1.86, 3.42) and suffocation (OR 4.40, 95% CI 3.71, 5.21). Even though these mortality differences

  18. Living actively in the face of impending death: constantly adjusting to bodily decline at the end-of-life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Deidre D; Currow, David C; Denehy, Linda; Aranda, Sanchia A

    2017-06-01

    People with advanced cancer experience bodily change resulting in debilitating functional decline. Although inability to participate in everyday activities (occupation) contributes to profound suffering, limited research has examined the relationship between altered bodily experience (embodiment) and functional ability. The purpose of this study was to better understand the lived experience of functional decline for people with advanced cancer living at home. Indepth interviews were conducted with 10 community dwelling people with advanced cancer about their bodily experiences of functional decline. This study employed a pragmatic qualitative approach, informed by hermeneutic phenomenology. People described living with rapidly disintegrating bodies and how this affected their ability to participate in everyday activities. Analysis identified themes which were evaluated against conceptual frameworks of 'occupation' and 'embodiment'. People experienced a shifting sense of self. They had to continuously reinterpret changing bodies. Previously automatic movements became disjointed and effortful. Simple actions like standing or getting out of bed required increasing concentration. Relentless bodily breakdown disrupted peoples' relationship with time, hindering their ability, but not their desire, to participate in everyday activities. Contending with this deterioration is the work of adaptation to functional decline at the end-of-life. This study highlights the role active participation in everyday activities plays in mediating adjustment to functional decline. These findings challenge us to look beyond palliation of physical symptoms and psychospiritual care as ends in themselves. Symptom control and palliation should be viewed as mechanisms to optimise active participation in essential and valued activities. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  19. Patterns of gun deaths across US counties 1999-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalesan, Bindu; Galea, Sandro

    2017-05-01

    We examined the socio-demographic distribution of gun deaths across 3143 counties in 50 United States' states to understand the spatial patterns and correlates of high and low gun deaths. We used aggregate counts of gun deaths and population in all counties from 1999 to 2013 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER). We characterized four levels of gun violence, as distinct levels of gun death rates of relatively safe, unsafe, violent, and extremely violent counties, based on quartiles of 15-year county-specific gun death rates per 100,000 and used negative binomial regression models allowing clustering by state to calculate incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Most states had at least one violent or extremely violent county. Extremely violent gun counties were mostly rural, poor, predominantly minority, had high unemployment rate and homicide rate. Overall, homicide rate was significantly associated with gun deaths (incidence rate ratios = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.06-1.09). In relatively safe counties, this risk was 1.09 (95% CI = 1.05-1.13) and in extremely violent gun counties was 1.03 (95% CI = 1.03-1.04). There are broad differences in gun death rates across the United States representing different levels of gun death rates in each state with distinct socio-demographic profiles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Parent & Child Perceptions of Child Health after Sibling Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, Rosa M; Brooten, Dorothy; Youngblut, JoAnne M

    Understanding children's health after a sibling's death and what factors may affect it is important for treatment and clinical care. This study compared children's and their parents' perceptions of children's health and identified relationships of children's age, gender, race/ethnicity, anxiety, and depression and sibling's cause of death to these perceptions at 2 and 4 months after sibling death. 64 children and 48 parents rated the child's health "now" and "now vs before" the sibling's death in an ICU or ER or at home shortly after withdrawal of life-prolonging technology. Children completed the Child Depression Inventory and Spence Children's Anxiety Scale. Sibling cause of death was collected from hospital records. At 2 and 4 months, 45% to 54% of mothers' and 53% to 84% of fathers' ratings of their child's health "now" were higher than their children's ratings. Child health ratings were lower for: children with greater depression; fathers whose children reported greater anxiety; mothers whose child died of a chronic condition. Children's ratings of their health "now vs before" their sibling's death did not differ significantly from mothers' or fathers' ratings at 2 or 4 months. Black fathers were more likely to rate the child's health better "now vs before" the death; there were no significant differences by child gender and cause of death in child's health "now vs before" the death. Children's responses to a sibling's death may not be visually apparent or become known by asking parents. Parents often perceive their children as healthier than children perceive themselves at 2 and 4 months after sibling death, so talking with children separately is important. Children's perceptions of their health may be influenced by depression, fathers' perceptions by children's anxiety, and mother's perceptions by the cause of sibling death.

  1. Periodontitis and Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Ide

    Full Text Available Periodontitis is common in the elderly and may become more common in Alzheimer's disease because of a reduced ability to take care of oral hygiene as the disease progresses. Elevated antibodies to periodontal bacteria are associated with an increased systemic pro-inflammatory state. Elsewhere raised serum pro-inflammatory cytokines have been associated with an increased rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We hypothesized that periodontitis would be associated with increased dementia severity and a more rapid cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We aimed to determine if periodontitis in Alzheimer's disease is associated with both increased dementia severity and cognitive decline, and an increased systemic pro inflammatory state. In a six month observational cohort study 60 community dwelling participants with mild to moderate Alzheimer's Disease were cognitively assessed and a blood sample taken for systemic inflammatory markers. Dental health was assessed by a dental hygienist, blind to cognitive outcomes. All assessments were repeated at six months. The presence of periodontitis at baseline was not related to baseline cognitive state but was associated with a six fold increase in the rate of cognitive decline as assessed by the ADAS-cog over a six month follow up period. Periodontitis at baseline was associated with a relative increase in the pro-inflammatory state over the six month follow up period. Our data showed that periodontitis is associated with an increase in cognitive decline in Alzheimer's Disease, independent to baseline cognitive state, which may be mediated through effects on systemic inflammation.

  2. Lung function decline in bronchial asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cibella, Fabio; Cuttitta, Giuseppina; Bellia, Vincenzo; Bucchieri, Salvatore; D'Anna, Silvestre; Guerrera, Daniela; Bonsignore, Giovanni

    2002-12-01

    We evaluated the longitudinal changes in lung function and the factors associated with FEV(1) changes over time in a sample of asthmatic subjects. FEV(1) measures were recorded every 3 months over a 5-year follow-up period. To compare all subjects independently of body size, FEV(1) values were normalized for the subject's height at the third power. We evaluated the possible effect of age, baseline FEV(1), disease duration, and FEV(1) variability on the rate of change of FEV(1). We studied 142 subjects with asthma diagnosed on the basis of validated clinical and functional criteria. FEV(1) showed a linear decay with aging in each subject. For a subject 1.65 m in height, the median overall FEV(1) decay was 40.9 mL/yr. FEV(1) decay slopes were significantly influenced by age and sex, being steeper in younger male subjects. A significant interaction was found between age and baseline FEV(1): the FEV(1) decay was significantly higher among younger asthmatics with a poorer baseline functional condition. A longer disease duration was associated with a lower FEV(1) slope. FEV(1) variability was strongly associated with an increased rate of FEV(1) decline. FEV(1) decline in patients with bronchial asthma is significantly influenced by baseline FEV(1), disease duration, and FEV(1) variability. Moreover, the rate of FEV(1) decline seems to increase in younger subjects only when the baseline function is poorer.

  3. Mortality rates for stroke in England from 1979 to 2004: trends, diagnostic precision, and artifacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldacre, Michael J; Duncan, Marie; Griffith, Myfanwy; Rothwell, Peter M

    2008-08-01

    Stroke mortality appears to be declining more rapidly in the UK than in many other Western countries. To understand this apparent decline better, we studied trends in mortality in the UK using more detailed data than are routinely available. Analysis of datasets that include both the underlying cause and all other mentioned causes of death (together, termed "all mentions"): the Oxford Record Linkage Study from 1979 to 2004 and English national data from 1996 to 2004. Mortality rates based on underlying cause and based on all mentions showed similar downward trends. Mortality based on underlying cause alone misses about one quarter of all stroke-related deaths. Changes during the period in the national rules for selecting the underlying cause of death had a significant but fairly small effect on the trend. Overall, mortality fell by an average annual rate of 2.3% (95% confidence interval 2.1% to 2.5%) for stroke excluding subarachnoid hemorrhage; and by 2.1% (1.7% to 2.6%) per annum for subarachnoid hemorrhage. Coding of stroke as hemorrhagic, occlusive, or unspecified varied substantially across the study period. As a result, rates for hemorrhagic and occlusive stroke, affected by artifact, seemed to fall substantially in the first part of the study period and then leveled off. Studies of stroke mortality should include all mentions as well as the certified underlying cause, otherwise the burden of stroke will be underestimated. Studies of stroke mortality that include strokes specified as hemorrhagic or occlusive, without also considering stroke overall, are likely to be misleading. Stroke mortality in the Oxford region halved between 1979 and 2004.

  4. Lung function decline in COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tantucci C

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Claudio Tantucci, Denise ModinaUnit of Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, ItalyAbstract: The landmark study of Fletcher and Peto on the natural history of tobacco smoke-related chronic airflow obstruction suggested that decline in the forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is slow at the beginning, becoming faster with more advanced disease. The present authors reviewed spirometric data of COPD patients included in the placebo arms of recent clinical trials to assess the lung function decline of each stage, defined according to the severity of airflow obstruction as proposed by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD guidelines. In large COPD populations the mean rate of FEV1 decline in GOLD stages II and III is between 47 and 79 mL/year and 56 and 59 mL/year, respectively, and lower than 35 mL/year in GOLD stage IV. Few data on FEV1 decline are available for GOLD stage I. Hence, the loss of lung function, assessed as expiratory airflow reduction, seems more accelerated and therefore more relevant in the initial phases of COPD. To have an impact on the natural history of COPD, it is logical to look at the effects of treatment in the earlier stages.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, decline, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, FEV1

  5. The natural history of cardiac and pulmonary function decline in patients with duchenne muscular dystrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberto, Rolando; Fritz, Anto; Hagar, Yolanda; Boice, Braden; Skalsky, Andrew; Hwang, Hosun; Beckett, Laurel; McDonald, Craig; Gupta, Munish

    2011-07-01

    Retrospective review of scoliosis progression, pulmonary and cardiac function in a series of patients with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD). To determine whether operative treatment of scoliosis decreases the rate of pulmonary function loss in patients with DMD. It is generally accepted that surgical intervention should be undertaken in DMD scoliosis once curve sizes reach 35° to allow intervention before critical respiratory decline has occurred. There are conflicting reports, however, regarding the effect of scoliosis stabilization on the rate of pulmonary function decline when compared to nonoperative cohorts. We reviewed spinal radiographs, echocardiograms, and spirometry, hospital, and operative records of all patients seen at our tertiary referral center from July 1, 1992 to June 1, 2007. Data were recorded to Microsoft Excel (Microsoft, Redmond, WA) and analyzed with SAS (SAS Institute, Cary, NC) and R statistical processing software (www.r-project.org). The percent predicted forced vital capacity (PPFVC) decreased 5% per year before operation. The mean PPFVC was 54% (SD = 21%) before operation with a mean postoperative PPFVC of 43% (SD = 14%). Surgical treatment was associated with a 12% decline in PPFVC independent of other treatment variables. PPFVC after operation declined at a rate of 1% per year and while this rate was lower, it was not significantly different than the rate of decline present before operation (P = 0.18). Cardiac function as measured by left ventricular fractional shortening declined at a rate of 1% per year with most individuals exhibiting a left ventricular fractional shortening rate of more than 30 before operation. Operative treatment of scoliosis in DMD using the Luque Galveston method was associated with a reduction of forced vital capacity related to operation. The rate of pulmonary function decline after operation was not significantly reduced when compared with the rate of preoperative forced vital capacity decline.

  6. Reduction of Endogenous Melatonin Accelerates Cognitive Decline in Mice in a Simulated Occupational Formaldehyde Exposure Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yufei Mei

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Individuals afflicted with occupational formaldehyde (FA exposure often suffer from abnormal behaviors such as aggression, depression, anxiety, sleep disorders, and in particular, cognitive impairments. Coincidentally, clinical patients with melatonin (MT deficiency also complain of cognitive problems associated with the above mental disorders. Whether and how FA affects endogenous MT metabolism and induces cognitive decline need to be elucidated. To mimic occupational FA exposure environment, 16 healthy adult male mice were exposed to gaseous FA (3 mg/m3 for 7 consecutive days. Results showed that FA exposure impaired spatial memory associated with hippocampal neuronal death. Biochemical analysis revealed that FA exposure elicited an intensive oxidative stress by reducing systemic glutathione levels, in particular, decreasing brain MT concentrations. Inversely, intraperitoneal injection of MT markedly attenuated FA-induced hippocampal neuronal death, restored brain MT levels, and reversed memory decline. At tissue levels, injection of FA into the hippocampus distinctly reduced brain MT concentrations. Furthermore, at cellular and molecular levels, we found that FA directly inactivated MT in vitro and in vivo. These findings suggest that MT supplementation contributes to the rescue of cognitive decline, and may alleviate mental disorders in the occupational FA-exposed human populations.

  7. An in vivo root hair assay for determining rates of apoptotic-like programmed cell death in plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hogg Bridget V

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In Arabidopsis thaliana we demonstrate that dying root hairs provide an easy and rapid in vivo model for the morphological identification of apoptotic-like programmed cell death (AL-PCD in plants. The model described here is transferable between species, can be used to investigate rates of AL-PCD in response to various treatments and to identify modulation of AL-PCD rates in mutant/transgenic plant lines facilitating rapid screening of mutant populations in order to identify genes involved in AL-PCD regulation.

  8. International comparison of death place for suicide; a population-level eight country death certificate study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhee, YongJoo; Houttekier, Dirk; MacLeod, Roderick; Wilson, Donna M; Cardenas-Turanzas, Marylou; Loucka, Martin; Aubry, Regis; Teno, Joan; Roh, Sungwon; Reinecke, Mark A; Deliens, Luc; Cohen, Joachim

    2016-01-01

    The places of death for people who died of suicide were compared across eight countries and socio-demographic factors associated with home suicide deaths identified. Death certificate data were analyzed; using multivariable binary logistic regression to determine associations. National suicide death rates ranged from 1.4 % (Mexico) to 6.4 % (South Korea). The proportion of suicide deaths occurring at home was high, ranging from 29.9 % (South Korea) to 65.8 % (Belgium). Being older, female, widowed/separated, highly educated and living in an urban area were risk factors for home suicide. Home suicide deaths need specific attention in prevention programs.

  9. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Sam M; Greaver, Cathy; Knight, Grant A; Knight, Mike H; Smit, Izak P J; Pienaar, Danie

    2015-01-01

    The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008) and white rhinos (2010) together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487) was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956). The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564) overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183). Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  10. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

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    Sam M Ferreira

    Full Text Available The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008 and white rhinos (2010 together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487 was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956. The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564 overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183. Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  11. Deaths from international terrorism compared with road crash deaths in OECD countries.

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    Wilson, N; Thomson, G

    2005-12-01

    To estimate the relative number of deaths in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) from international terrorism and road crashes. Data on deaths from international terrorism (US State Department database) were collated (1994-2003) and compared to the road injury deaths (year 2000 and 2001 data) from the OECD International Road Transport Accident Database. In the 29 OECD countries for which comparable data were available, the annual average death rate from road injury was approximately 390 times that from international terrorism. The ratio of annual road to international terrorism deaths (averaged over 10 years) was lowest for the United States at 142 times. In 2001, road crash deaths in the US were equal to those from a September 11 attack every 26 days. There is a large difference in the magnitude of these two causes of deaths from injury. Policy makers need to be aware of this when allocating resources to preventing these two avoidable causes of mortality.

  12. The use of contrast-enhanced post Mortem CT in the detection of cardiovascular deaths.

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    Jonas Christoph Apitzsch

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the diagnostic value of contrast enhanced post mortem computed tomography (PMCT in comparison to non-enhanced post mortem CT in the detection of cardiovascular causes of death (COD. BACKGROUND: As autopsy rates decline, new methods to determine CODs are necessary. So contrast enhanced PMCT shall be evaluated in comparison to established non-enhanced PMCT in order to further improve the method. METHODS: In a prospective study, 20 corpses were examined using a 64-row multisclice CT (MSCT before and after intraarterial perfusion with a newly developed, barium-bearing contrast agent and ventilation of the lungs. The cause of death was determined in enhanced and unenhanced scans and a level of confidence (LOC was given by three experienced radiologists on a scale between 0 and 4. Results were compared to autopsy results as gold standard. Autopsy was performed blinded to PMCT-findings. RESULTS: The method allowed visualization of different types of cause of death. There was a significant improvement in LOC in enhanced scans compared to unenhanced scans as well as an improvement in the detection of COD. The cause of death could be determined in 19 out of 20 patients. CONCLUSIONS: PMCT is feasible and appears to be robust for diagnosing cardiovascular causes of death. When compared with unenhanced post-mortem CT intraarterial perfusion and pulmonary ventilation significantly improve visualization and diagnostic accuracy. These promising results warrant further studies.

  13. Prosperity as a cause of death.

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    Eyer, J

    1977-01-01

    The general death rate rises during business booms and falls during depressions. The causes of death involved in this variation range from infectious diseases through accidents to heart disease, cancer, and cirrhosis of the liver, and include the great majority of all causes of death. Less than 2 percent of the death rate-that for suicide and homicide-varies directly with unemployment. In the older historical data, deterioration of housing and rise of alcohol consumption on the boom may account for part of this variation. In twentieth-century cycles, the role of social stress is probably predominant. Overwork and fragmentation of community through migration are two important sources of stress which rise with the boom, and they are demonstrably related to the causes of death which show this variation.

  14. The fertility decline in Kenya.

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    Robinson, W C; Harbison, S F

    1995-01-01

    In Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya is a prime example of a country experiencing a rapid decline in fertility and greater contraceptive prevalence. These changes have occurred since 1980 when fertility was high at 8.0 children per woman. In 1993 the total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.4, and the growth rate declined to about 2.0%. This transition is swifter than any country in contemporary Asia or historical Europe. The likely projection for Kenya is attainment of replacement level fertility during the 2020s and a leveling of population at about 100 million persons. Fertility has declined the most in urban areas and central and eastern regions. Bongaarts' proximate determinants (TFR, total marital fertility rate, total natural marital fertility rate, and total fecundity) are reduced to the proportion of currently married women using contraception, the proportion in lactational nonfecund status, and the proportion currently married. Actual fertility change is accounted for by total fertility change of 3.0 children. Lactational infecundability accounts for 0.5 potential births, and changes in marital fertility account for 1.0 reduced births per woman. About 70% of fertility reduction is accounted for by contraception and abortion. During 1977-78 80% of fertility control was due to lactational nonfecundity, 10% to nonmarriage, and 10% to contraception. In 1993 lactational nonfecundity accounted for 50% of the reduction, nonmarriage for 20%, and abortion about 30%. Future fertility is expected to be dependent on contraceptive prevalence. Kenya has experienced the Coale paradigm of preconditions necessary for demographic transition (willing, ready, and able). High fertility in Africa is not intractable. Creating the change in attitudes that leads to readiness is linked to education, health, and exposure to modernizing media and urban lifestyles. The public sector family planning program in Kenya has created the opportunity for access and availability of contraception. The key

  15. Bedside Ultrasound of Quadriceps to Predict Rehospitalization and Functional Decline in Hospitalized Elders

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    Ana Clara Guerreiro

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo evaluate the capacity of total anterior thigh thickness, quadriceps muscle thickness, and quadriceps contractile index, all measured by bedside ultrasound, to predict rehospitalization, functional decline, and death in elderly patients 3 months after hospital discharge. To evaluate intra and interobserver reproducibility of the dominant thigh evaluation method by point of care ultrasound.MethodsCohort study of patients aged 65 years or more admitted to a medium complexity unit in a teaching hospital in southern Brazil. Comprehensive geriatric assessment and ultrasound evaluation of the dominant thigh of each participant were performed. After 3 months of hospital discharge, telephone contact was made to evaluate the outcomes of rehospitalization or death and functional decline—assessed by the 100 points Barthel scale and defined as a decrease of five or more points.Results100 participants were included. There was no statistically significant difference between intraobserver measurements in the GEE method analysis (p > 0.05, and the mean bias obtained in Bland–Altman plots was close to zero in all four analyses performed, suggesting good intra and interobserver agreement. There was a significant correlation between the echographic measurements (quadriceps thickness and contractile index and gait speed, timed up and go, and handgrip tests. There was a significant association between contractile index (quadriceps thickness over total anterior thigh thickness multiplied by 100 lower than 60% and functional decline (relative risk 1.35; CI 95% 1.10–1.65; p = 0.003 as well as between the thickness of the quadriceps and rehospitalization or death, in both individuals with preserved walking capacity and in bedridden elders (relative risk 1.34; CI 95% 1.02–1.75; p = 0.04.ConclusionThe ultrasonographic method to evaluate thigh thickness was easily applicable and reproducible. The thickness of the quadriceps could

  16. Assessing variation in skeletal production from surface death assemblages on the basis of age-frequency distributions

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    Tomasovych, Adam; Kidwell, Susan M.; Foygel Barber, Rina

    2015-04-01

    Age-frequency distributions of dead skeletal material that capture information on the elapsed time since death of individuals on the landscape or seabed provide decadal- to millennial-scale windows into the history of production and on the processes that lead to skeletal disintegration and burial. However, models quantifying the dynamics of skeletal loss assumed that skeletal production has been constant during accumulation of death assemblages. Here, we assess the joint effects of temporally-variable production and skeletal loss on the shape of postmortem age-frequency distributions. We show that the modes of such distributions will tend to be shifted to younger age cohorts relative to the true timing of past production pulses. This shift in the timing of a past production will be higher where loss rates are high and/or the rate of decline in production is slow. We apply the models combining the dynamic of loss and production to death assemblages with the deposit-feeding bivalve Nuculana taphria from the Southern California continental shelf, finding that (1) an onshore-offshore gradient in time averaging is dominated by a gradient in the timing of production, corresponding to the tracking of shallow-water habitats under a sea-level rise, and (2) model estimates of the timing of past production are in good agreement with an independent sea-level curve.

  17. Cued memory decline in biomarker-defined preclinical Alzheimer disease.

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    Papp, Kathryn V; Rentz, Dorene M; Mormino, Elizabeth C; Schultz, Aaron P; Amariglio, Rebecca E; Quiroz, Yakeel; Johnson, Keith A; Sperling, Reisa A

    2017-04-11

    To determine whether a decline in cued recall is observable in the preclinical stage of Alzheimer disease (AD) in clinically normal older adults with elevated β-amyloid (Aβ) burden on PET imaging. Clinically normal older adults underwent baseline neuroimaging (PET to assess Aβ +/- status and MRI) and annual neuropsychological testing. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the relative risk of cued memory decline (drop of 1, 2, 3, or 4 points on the total score of the Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test) in relation to neuroimaging measures, functional status, age, sex, and education. A total of 276 older adults (Clinical Dementia Rating = 0, mean Mini-Mental State Examination score = 29 ± 1.06) were followed up for a mean of 3.6 ± 1.2 years. Despite the infrequency of cued memory decline (only 19% of participants scored ≤46/48 in total recall by year 3), Aβ + participants were 3.55 times (95% confidence interval = 1.77-7.12) more likely to exhibit decline in total recall (≤46/48) compared with their Aβ - peers. Furthermore, Aβ + participants who scored ≤46/48 had smaller hippocampal volumes ( t = 3.37, p = 0.001) and evidence of early functional decline, i.e., greater risk of progression to global Clinical Dementia Rating of 0.5 (χ 2 = 14.30, p recall. Cued memory decline in healthy older adults may be particularly indicative of Aβ-related decline during the preclinical stage of AD and useful for identifying Aβ + clinically normal individuals at greatest risk of short-term clinical progression. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  18. Abrupt Decline in Tuberculosis among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States.

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    Brian J Baker

    Full Text Available While the number of reported tuberculosis (TB cases in the United States has declined over the past two decades, TB morbidity among foreign-born persons has remained persistently elevated. A recent unexpected decline in reported TB cases among foreign-born persons beginning in 2007 provided an opportunity to examine contributing factors and inform future TB control strategies. We investigated the relative influence of three factors on the decline: 1 changes in the size of the foreign-born population through immigration and emigration, 2 changes in distribution of country of origin among foreign-born persons, and 3 changes in the TB case rates among foreign-born subpopulations. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined TB case counts, TB case rates, and population estimates, stratified by years since U.S. entry and country of origin. Regression modeling was used to assess statistically significant changes in trend. Among foreign-born recent entrants (<3 years since U.S. entry, we found a 39.5% decline (-1,013 cases beginning in 2007 (P<0.05 compared to 2000-2007 and ending in 2011 (P<0.05 compared to 2011-2014. Among recent entrants from Mexico, 80.7% of the decline was attributable to a decrease in population, while the declines among recent entrants from the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and China were almost exclusively (95.5%-100% the result of decreases in TB case rates. Among foreign-born non-recent entrants (≥3 years since U.S. entry, we found an 8.9% decline (-443 cases that resulted entirely (100% from a decrease in the TB case rate. Both recent and non-recent entrants contributed to the decline in TB cases; factors contributing to the decline among recent entrants varied by country of origin. Strategies that impact both recent and non-recent entrants (e.g., investment in overseas TB control as well as those that focus on non-recent entrants (e.g., expanded targeted

  19. Decline in male circumcision in South Korea.

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    Kim, DaiSik; Koo, Sung-Ae; Pang, Myung-Geol

    2012-12-11

    To investigate the changing circumcision rate in South Korea in the last decade and to propose underlying causes for this change, in the context of the present fluctuating world-wide trends in circumcision. From 2009 to 2011, 3,296 South Korean males (or their parents) aged 0-64 years were asked about their circumcision status, their age at circumcision, and their information level regarding circumcision. We employed non-probability sampling considering the sensitive questions on the study theme. Currently the age-standardized circumcision rate for South Korean males aged 14-29 is found to be 75.8%. In an earlier study performed in 2002, the rate for the same age group was 86.3%. Of particular interest, males aged 14-16 show a circumcision rate of 56.4%, while the same age group 10 years ago displayed a much higher percentage, at 88.4%. In addition, the extraordinarily high circumcision rate of 95.2% found 10 years ago for the 17-19 age group is now reduced to 74.4%. Interestingly, of the circumcised males, the percentage circumcised in the last decade was only 25.2%; i.e., the majority of the currently circumcised males had undergone the operation prior to 2002, indicating that the actual change in the last decade is far greater. Consistent with this conjecture, the 2002 survey showed that the majority of circumcised males (75.7%) had undergone the operation in the decade prior to that point. Focusing on the flagship age group of 14-16, this drop suggests that, considering the population structure of Korean males, approximately one million fewer circumcision operations have been performed in the last decade relative to the case of non-decline. This decline is strongly correlated with the information available through internet, newspapers, lectures, books, and television: within the circumcised population, both the patients and their parents had less prior knowledge regarding circumcision, other than information obtained from person to person by oral communication

  20. Acute cell death rate of vascular smooth muscle cells during or after short heating up to 20s ranging 50 to 60°C as a basic study of thermal angioplasty

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    Shinozuka, Machiko; Shimazaki, Natsumi; Ogawa, Emiyu; Machida, Naoki; Arai, Tsunenori

    2014-02-01

    We studied the relations between the time history of smooth muscle cells (SMCs) death rate and heating condition in vitro to clarify cell death mechanism in heating angioplasty, in particular under the condition in which intimal hyperplasia growth had been prevented in vivo swine experiment. A flow heating system on the microscope stage was used for the SMCs death rate measurement during or after the heating. The cells were loaded step-heating by heated flow using a heater equipped in a Photo-thermo dynamic balloon. The heating temperature was set to 37, 50-60°C. The SMCs death rate was calculated by a division of PI stained cell number by Hoechst33342 stained cell number. The SMCs death rate increased 5-10% linearly during 20 s with the heating. The SMCs death rate increased with duration up to 15 min after 5 s heating. Because fragmented nuclei were observed from approximately 5 min after the heating, we defined that acute necrosis and late necrosis were corresponded to within 5 min after the heating and over 5 min after the heating, respectively. This late necrosis is probably corresponding to apoptosis. The ratio of necrotic interaction divided the acute necrosis rate by the late necrosis was calculated based on this consideration as 1.3 under the particular condition in which intimal hyperplasia growth was prevented in vivo previous porcine experiment. We think that necrotic interaction rate is larger than expected rate to obtain intimal hyperplasia suppression.

  1. Quantifying cause-related mortality by weighting multiple causes of death

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    Moreno-Betancur, Margarita; Lamarche-Vadel, Agathe; Rey, Grégoire

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Objective To investigate a new approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates that involves assigning weights to each cause of death reported on death certificates. Methods We derived cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data for France in 2010 using: (i) the classic method, which considered only the underlying cause of death; and (ii) three novel multiple-cause-of-death weighting methods, which assigned weights to multiple causes of death mentioned on death certificates: the first two multiple-cause-of-death methods assigned non-zero weights to all causes mentioned and the third assigned non-zero weights to only the underlying cause and other contributing causes that were not part of the main morbid process. As the sum of the weights for each death certificate was 1, each death had an equal influence on mortality estimates and the total number of deaths was unchanged. Mortality rates derived using the different methods were compared. Findings On average, 3.4 causes per death were listed on each certificate. The standardized mortality rate calculated using the third multiple-cause-of-death weighting method was more than 20% higher than that calculated using the classic method for five disease categories: skin diseases, mental disorders, endocrine and nutritional diseases, blood diseases and genitourinary diseases. Moreover, this method highlighted the mortality burden associated with certain diseases in specific age groups. Conclusion A multiple-cause-of-death weighting approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data identified conditions that contributed more to mortality than indicated by the classic method. This new approach holds promise for identifying underrecognized contributors to mortality. PMID:27994280

  2. Declines in tobacco brand recognition and ever-smoking rates among young children following restrictions on tobacco advertisements in Hong Kong.

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    Fielding, R; Chee, Y Y; Choi, K M; Chu, T K; Kato, K; Lam, S K; Sin, K L; Tang, K T; Wong, H M; Wong, K M

    2004-03-01

    We compared the recognition of tobacco brands and ever-smoking rates in young children before (1991) and after (2001) the implementation of cigarette advertising restrictions in Hong Kong and identified continuing sources of tobacco promotion exposure. A cross-sectional survey of 824 primary school children aged from 8 to 11 (Primary classes 3-4) living in two Hong Kong districts was carried out using self-completed questionnaires examining smoking behaviour and recognition of names and logos from 18 tobacco, food, drink and other brands common in Hong Kong. Ever-smoking prevalence in 2001 was 3.8 per cent (1991, 7.8 per cent). Tobacco brand recognition rates ranged from 5.3 per cent (Viceroy name) to 72.8 per cent (Viceroy logo). Compared with 1991, in 2001 never-smoker children recognized fewer tobacco brand names and logos: Marlboro logo recognition rate fell by 55.3 per cent. Similar declines were also seen in ever-smoker children, with recognition of the Marlboro logo decreasing 48 per cent. Recognition rates declined amongst both boys and girls. Children from non-smoking families constituted 51 per cent (426) of the sample, whereas 34.5 per cent (284), 8.5 per cent (70), 1.7 per cent (14) and 4.4 per cent (36) of the children had one, two, three or more than three smoking family members at home, respectively. Tobacco brand recognition rates and ever-smoking prevalence were significantly higher among children with smoking family members compared with those without. Among 12 possible sources of exposure to cigarette brand names and logos, retail stalls (75.5 per cent; 622), indirect advertisements (71.5 per cent; 589) and magazines (65.3 per cent; 538) were ranked the most common. Advertising restrictions in Hong Kong have effectively decreased primary-age children's recognition of tobacco branding. However, these children remain vulnerable to branding, mostly through exposure from family smokers, point-of-sale tobacco advertisement and occasional promotions

  3. Adolescents' Attitudes toward the Death Penalty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lester, David; Maggioncalda-Aretz, Maria; Stark, Scott Hunter

    1997-01-01

    Examines whether high school (n=142) and college students (n=112) favored the death penalty for certain criminal acts. Findings indicate that high school students rated more criminal acts as meriting the death penalty. Gender and personality were not found to be associated with attitudes toward the death penalty. (RJM)

  4. Cognitive declines precede and predict functional declines in aging and Alzheimer's disease.

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    Laura B Zahodne

    Full Text Available To investigate the temporal ordering of cognitive and functional declines separately in older adults with or without Alzheimer's disease (AD.A community-based longitudinal study of aging and dementia in Northern Manhattan (Washington Heights/Hamilton Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project and a multicenter, clinic-based longitudinal study of prevalent AD at Columbia University Medical Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, and the Hôpital de la Salpêtrière in Paris, France (the Predictors Study.3,443 initially non-demented older adults (612 with eventual incident dementia and 517 patients with AD.Cognitive measures included the modified Mini-Mental State Exam and composite scores of memory and language derived from a standardized neuropsychological battery. Function was measured with the Blessed Dementia Rating Scale, completed by the participant (in the sample of non-demented older adults or an informant (in the sample of prevalent AD patients. Data were analyzed with autoregressive cross-lagged panel analysis.Cognitive scores more consistently predicted subsequent functional abilities than vice versa in non-demented older adults, participants with eventual incident dementia, and patients with prevalent AD.Cognitive declines appear to precede and cause functional declines prior to and following dementia diagnosis. Standardized neuropsychological tests are valid predictors of later functional changes in both non-demented and demented older adults.

  5. Annual Report of the Perinatology Committee, Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 2015: Proposal of urgent measures to reduce maternal deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Satoru; Takeda, Jun; Murakami, Keisuke; Kubo, Takahiko; Hamada, Hiromi; Murakami, Maki; Makino, Shintaro; Itoh, Hiroaki; Ohba, Takashi; Naruse, Katsuhiko; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Kanayama, Naohiro; Matsubara, Shigeki; Sameshima, Hiroshi; Ikeda, Tomoaki

    2017-01-01

    Perinatal care in Japan has progressed rapidly in recent decades, remarkably reducing maternal, perinatal and neonatal mortality rates. This is attributable not only to the sustained efforts and dedication of past obstetricians and midwives, but also to the collective results achieved by the Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology and healthcare administration, including research on advanced medical care, education, medical care improvements and establishing perinatal care centers. Although the maternal mortality rate was in steady decline until 2007 (3.1/100 000 births), it repeatedly fluctuated thereafter, plateauing at 3.4 per 100 000 births in 2013 and 2.7 per 100 000 births in 2014. Thus, the Perinatology Committee has analyzed the current situation of maternal deaths and has proposed countermeasures to reduce such death. The items deliberated upon by related subcommittees in 2015 are presented herein. The addition of indications for 'fibrinogen concentrate', 'eptacog alfa' and approval of the PGE2 vaginal tablet for cervical ripening were discussed in the subcommittee for unapproved drug review. Thus, a request for approval for health insurance coverage was submitted to the 'Evaluation committee on unapproved or off-label drugs with high medical needs' of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Maternal and late-maternal deaths from suicide during the 10 years from 2005 to 2014 in Tokyo's 23 wards were jointly examined with the Tokyo Medical Examiner's Office. The suicide rate in the 23 wards is very high, at 8.7 per 100 000 births. Thus, the subcommittee for the reduction of maternal death discussed countermeasures for the eradication of maternal death and maternal suicide and the revision of death certificates. © 2017 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  6. Increasing Rates of Brain Tumours in the Swedish National Inpatient Register and the Causes of Death Register

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    Lennart Hardell

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Radiofrequency emissions in the frequency range 30 kHz–300 GHz were evaluated to be Group 2B, i.e., “possibly”, carcinogenic to humans by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC at WHO in May 2011. The Swedish Cancer Register has not shown increasing incidence of brain tumours in recent years and has been used to dismiss epidemiological evidence on a risk. In this study we used the Swedish National Inpatient Register (IPR and Causes of Death Register (CDR to further study the incidence comparing with the Cancer Register data for the time period 1998–2013 using joinpoint regression analysis. In the IPR we found a joinpoint in 2007 with Annual Percentage Change (APC +4.25%, 95% CI +1.98, +6.57% during 2007–2013 for tumours of unknown type in the brain or CNS. In the CDR joinpoint regression found one joinpoint in 2008 with APC during 2008–2013 +22.60%, 95% CI +9.68, +37.03%. These tumour diagnoses would be based on clinical examination, mainly CT and/or MRI, but without histopathology or cytology. No statistically significant increasing incidence was found in the Swedish Cancer Register during these years. We postulate that a large part of brain tumours of unknown type are never reported to the Cancer Register. Furthermore, the frequency of diagnosis based on autopsy has declined substantially due to a general decline of autopsies in Sweden adding further to missing cases. We conclude that the Swedish Cancer Register is not reliable to be used to dismiss results in epidemiological studies on the use of wireless phones and brain tumour risk.

  7. Temporal trends and gender differentials in causes of childhood deaths at Ballabgarh, India - Need for revisiting child survival strategies

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    Krishnan Anand

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Relating Information on causes of deaths to implementation of health interventions provides vital information for program planning and evaluation. This paper from Ballabgarh Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS site in north India looks at temporal trends and gender differentials in the causes of death among under-five children. Methods Data on causes of death for 1972-74, 1982-84, 1992-94, 2002-04 were taken from existing HDSS publications and database. Physicians’ assigned causes of death were based on narratives by lay health worker till 1994 and later by verbal autopsy. Cause Specific Mortality Fractions (CSMF and Cause Specific Mortality Rates (CSMR per 1000 live births were calculated for neonatal ( Results The CSMF of prematurity and sepsis was 32% and 17.6% during neonatal period in 2002-04. The share of infections in all childhood deaths decreased from 55.2% in 1972-74 to 43.6% in 2002-04. All major causes of mortality (malnutrition, diarrhea and acute lower respiratory infection except injuries showed a steep decline among children and seem to have plateued in last decade. Most of disease specific public health interventions were launched in mid eighties. . Girls reported significantly higher mortality rates for prematurity (RR 1.52; 95% CI 1.01-2.29; diarrhea (2.29; 1.59 – 3.29, and malnutrition (3.37; 2.05 – 5.53. Conclusions The findings of the study point out to the need to move away from disease-specific to a comprehensive approach and to address gender inequity in child survival through socio-behavioural approaches.

  8. The association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with productivity or reproductive performance in dairy herds in Fukuoka, Southern Japan.

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    Goto, Akira; Nakada, Ken; Katamoto, Hiromu

    2016-05-03

    The incidence of peripartum disorders in dairy herds negatively influences productivity and reproductive performance. Concrete data from local areas are helpful for explaining the importance of peripartum management to dairy farmers. This study was conducted to clarify the association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with productivity or reproductive performance in 179 dairy herds in Fukuoka, Southern Japan. A database was compiled from the records of the Livestock Improvement Association of Japan, the Dairy Cooperative Association and the Federation of Agricultural Mutual Relief Association. In this study, we created a comprehensive database of dairy farm production data for epidemiological analysis and used a general linear mixed model to analyze the association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with milk production or reproductive performance. The database can be used to describe, analyze and predict the risk of production. A cross-sectional analysis with contrasts was applied to investigate the association of cows served by AI/all cows, pregnant cows/cows served by AI, days open, milk yield and somatic cell counts with culling and death rate within 30 days after calving. The days open value significantly increased with increasing rate of culling and death within 30 days after calving (P for trend <0.001). No significant differences were found for the other comparisons. Our data suggest that proper feeding and management in the dry period may lead to improved postpartum reproductive performance in this dairy cow cohort.

  9. Childhood obesity, other cardiovascular risk factors, and premature death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franks, Paul W; Hanson, Robert L; Knowler, William C; Sievers, Maurice L; Bennett, Peter H; Looker, Helen C

    2010-02-11

    The effect of childhood risk factors for cardiovascular disease on adult mortality is poorly understood. In a cohort of 4857 American Indian children without diabetes (mean age, 11.3 years; 12,659 examinations) who were born between 1945 and 1984, we assessed whether body-mass index (BMI), glucose tolerance, and blood pressure and cholesterol levels predicted premature death. Risk factors were standardized according to sex and age. Proportional-hazards models were used to assess whether each risk factor was associated with time to death occurring before 55 years of age. Models were adjusted for baseline age, sex, birth cohort, and Pima or Tohono O'odham Indian heritage. There were 166 deaths from endogenous causes (3.4% of the cohort) during a median follow-up period of 23.9 years. Rates of death from endogenous causes among children in the highest quartile of BMI were more than double those among children in the lowest BMI quartile (incidence-rate ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.46 to 3.62). Rates of death from endogenous causes among children in the highest quartile of glucose intolerance were 73% higher than those among children in the lowest quartile (incidence-rate ratio, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.74). No significant associations were seen between rates of death from endogenous or external causes and childhood cholesterol levels or systolic or diastolic blood-pressure levels on a continuous scale, although childhood hypertension was significantly associated with premature death from endogenous causes (incidence-rate ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.24). Obesity, glucose intolerance, and hypertension in childhood were strongly associated with increased rates of premature death from endogenous causes in this population. In contrast, childhood hypercholesterolemia was not a major predictor of premature death from endogenous causes. 2010 Massachusetts Medical Society

  10. Influence of early pH decline on calpain activity in porcine muscle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pomponio, Luigi; Ertbjerg, Per; Karlsson, Anders H

    2010-01-01

    myofibril fragmentation at 24 h post-mortem was observed, which was no longer evident in the later phase of the tenderization process. In conclusion, the rate of early pH decline influenced l-calpain activity and the rate but not the extent of myofibrillar degradation, suggesting an early effect......This study investigated the influence of post-mortem pH decline on calpain activity and myofibrillar degradation.From 80 pigs, 30 Longissimus dorsi (LD) muscles were selected on the basis of pH values at 3 h post-mortem and classified into groups of 10 as fast, intermediate and slow pH decline...... measured. A faster decrease in pH resulted in reduced level of l-calpain activity and increased autolysis of the enzyme, and hence an earlier loss of activity due to activation of l-calpain in muscles with a fast pH decline. Paralleling the l-calpain activation in muscles with a fast pH decline a higher...

  11. Sudden cardiac death in children (1-18 years)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winkel, Bo Gregers; Risgaard, Bjarke; Sadjadieh, Golnaz

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: Hitherto, sudden cardiac death in children (SCDc)-defined as sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the 1-18 years old-has been incompletely described in the general population. Knowledge on incidence rates, causes of death and symptoms prior to death is sparse and has been affected by reporting...... and referral bias. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a nationwide setting all deaths in children aged 1-18 years in Denmark in 2000-06 were included. To chart causes of death and incidence rates, death certificates and autopsy reports were collected and read. By additional use of the extensive healthcare registries...... in Denmark, we were also able to investigate prior disease and symptoms. During the 7-year study period there was an average of 1.11 million persons aged 1-18 years. There were a total of 1504 deaths (214 deaths per year) from 7.78 million person-years. A total of 114 (7.5%) were sudden and unexpected...

  12. Fertility Decline in Pakistan 1980-2006 : A Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2010-01-01

    Pakistan was selected as a case study because of its estimated 40 percent decline in fertility between 1980 and 2006. Pakistan's high fertility rate began to decline gradually after the late 1980s and has continued to fall since then, though progress has been uneven and there have been signs of a slowdown in recent years. Unlike the other four case study countries (Algeria, Botswana, Iran,...

  13. Increased circulating endothelial apoptotic microparticle to endothelial progenitor cell ratio is associated with subsequent decline in glomerular filtration rate in hypertensive patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Yi Hsu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent research indicates hypertensive patients with microalbuminuria have decreased endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs and increased levels of endothelial apoptotic microparticles (EMP. However, whether these changes are related to a subsequent decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled totally 100 hypertensive out-patients with eGFR ≥ 30 mL/min/1.73 m(2. The mean annual rate of GFR decline (△GFR/y was -1.49 ± 3.26 mL/min/1.73 m(2 per year during the follow-up period (34 ± 6 months. Flow cytometry was used to assess circulating EPC (CD34(+/KDR(+ and EMP levels (CD31(+/annexin V(+ in peripheral blood. The △GFR/y was correlated with the EMP to EPC ratio (r= -0.465, p<0.001, microalbuminuria (r= -0.329, p=0.001, and the Framingham risk score (r= -0.245, p=0.013. When we divided the patients into 4 groups according to the EMP to EPC ratio, there was an association between the EMP to EPC ratio and the ΔGFR/y (mean ΔGFR/y: 0.08 ± 3.04 vs. -0.50 ± 2.84 vs. -1.25 ± 2.49 vs. -4.42 ± 2.82, p<0.001. Multivariate analysis indicated that increased EMP to EPC ratio is an independent predictor of ΔeGFR/y. CONCLUSIONS: An increased circulating EMP to EPC ratio is associated with subsequent decline in GFR in hypertensive patients, which suggests endothelial damage with reduced vascular repair capacity may contribute to further deterioration of renal function in patients with hypertension.

  14. Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

  15. High death rate in mice treated topically with diclofenac

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lerche, Catharina M; Philipsen, Peter A; Poulsen, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    ). Diclofenac was applied topically on the backs of hairless, female, C3.Cg/TifBomTac immunocompetent mice three times weekly followed by ultraviolet radiation (2, 3, or 4 Standard Erythema Dose) until death. There was a significant difference in survival between diclofenac-treated groups and control groups (P...

  16. Death and Death Anxiety

    OpenAIRE

    Gonca Karakus; Zehra Ozturk; Lut Tamam

    2012-01-01

    Although death and life concepts seem so different from each other, some believe that death and life as a whole that death is accepted as the goal of life and death completes life. In different cultures, societies and disciplines, there have been very different definitions of death which changes according to personality, age, religion and cultural status of the individual. Attitudes towards death vary dramatically according to individuals. As for the death anxiety, it is a feeling which start...

  17. Predictors of cognitive decline in older adult type 2 diabetes from the Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Zimering

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Aims: Cognitive decline disproportionately affects older adult type 2 diabetes. We tested whether randomized intensive glucose-lowering reduces the rate(s of cognitive decline in adults with advanced type 2 diabetes (mean: age, 60 years; diabetes duration, 11 years from the Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial. Methods: A battery of neuropsychological tests (digit span, digit symbol substitution (DSym, and Trails-making Part B (TMT-B was administered at baseline in ~1700 participants and repeated at year 5. Thirty-six risk factors were evaluated as predictors of cognitive decline in multivariable regression analyses.Results: The mean age-adjusted, DSym or TMT-B declined significantly in all study participants (P < 0.001. Randomized intensive glucose-lowering did not significantly alter the rate of cognitive decline. The final model of risk factors associated with 5-year decline in age-adjusted TMT-B included as significant predictors: longer baseline diabetes duration (beta = -0.028; P = 0.0057, lower baseline diastolic blood pressure (beta = 0.028; P < 0.001, and baseline calcium channel blocker medication use (beta = -0.639; P < 0.001. Higher baseline pulse pressure was significantly associated with decline in age-adjusted TMT-B suggesting a role for both higher systolic and lower diastolic blood pressure. Baseline thiazide diuretic use (beta= -0.549; P =0.015 was an additional significant predictor of 5-year decline in age-adjusted digit symbol score. Post-baseline systolic blood pressure-lowering was significantly associated (P < 0.001 with decline in TMT-B performance. There was a significant inverse association between post-baseline plasma triglyceride- lowering (P = 0.045 and decline in digit symbol substitution task performance.Conclusions: A five-year period of randomized intensive glucose-lowering did not significantly reduce the rate of cognitive decline in older-aged adults with type 2 diabetes. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure as

  18. Defibrillator patients should not be denied a peaceful death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerdahl, Annika Kinch; Sutton, Richard; Frykman, Viveka

    2015-03-01

    Implantable defibrillators (ICDs) prevent sudden cardiac death. With declining health, ICD therapy may prolong death and expose the patient to unnecessary pain and anxiety. Few studies have addressed end of life care in ICD patients. The objective of this study was to investigate end of life in ICD patients, with respect to location of death; duration between do-not-resuscitate (DNR)-orders and deactivation of ICD therapy or DNR and time of death. A descriptive analysis of 65 deceased ICD patients, all whom had a written DNR-order before death, is presented. The majority (86%) was treated in hospitals, mainly (63%) university hospitals, and many (33%) in cardiology wards. Despite DNR-order, ICD shock therapy was active in 51% of all patients. In those with therapy deactivated at death, therapy deactivation was carried out two days or more after DNR-order in more than a third (38%). The time from DNR decision to death in patients with therapy active had a median of four days (IQR 1-38). During the last 24h of life, 24% of the patients experienced shock treatment. The majority of ICD patients with a DNR-order were treated in university hospitals. More than half still had shock treatment active at time of death with a median of four days or more between DNR decision and death. Patients with therapy deactivated, two days or more elapsed in more than a third from DNR decision to deactivation of therapy, exposing patients to a high risk of painful shocks before death. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Death in the United States, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Order from the National Technical Information Service NCHS Death in the United States, 2011 Recommend on Facebook ... 2011 SOURCE: National Vital Statistics System, Mortality. Do death rates vary by state? States experience different mortality ...

  20. Progress has Stalled in U.S. Stroke Death Rates after Decades of Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Resistance Cancer Cardiovascular Disease CDC Works for you 24/7 Child Development Disease & Conditions Food Safety Healthcare Associated ... outcomes Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Press Release Embargoed Until: Wednesday, ...

  1. Agreement between death-certificate and autopsy diagnoses among atomic-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ron, E.; Carter, R.L.; Jablon, S.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko.

    1993-11-01

    Using the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission/Radiation Effects Research Foundation series of over 5000 autopsies, we examined death-certificate accuracy for several disease categories and assessed the effect of potential modifying factors on this accuracy. For 12 cause-of-death categories, the overall percent agreement between death-certificate and autopsy diagnoses was only 52.5%. Although neoplasms had the highest detection rate (on the death certificate) in the study, still almost 25% of cancers diagnosed at autopsy were missed on the death certificate. Only for neoplasms and external causes of death were confirmation and detection rates above 70%. Confirmation rates were between 50% and 70% for infectious and parasitic diseases and heart and other vascular diseases. Detection rates reached a similar level for infectious and parasitic, cerebrovascular, and digestive diseases. Specificity rates were above 90% for all but the cerebrovascular disease category. Overall agreement decreased with increasing age of the decedents and was lower for deaths occurring outside of hospital vs those occurring in a hospital. There was some suggestion that agreement rates were higher for more-recent deaths but no indication that radiation dose, sex, city of residence, or inclusion in a biennial clinical-examination program influenced agreement. Because the inaccuracy of death-certificate diagnoses can have major implications for many aspects of health research and planning, it is important to be aware that death-certificate accuracy is low and can vary widely depending on the patient's age at death and the place of death. (J.P.N.)

  2. Factors influencing the decline in stroke mortality: a statement from the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackland, Daniel T; Roccella, Edward J; Deutsch, Anne F; Fornage, Myriam; George, Mary G; Howard, George; Kissela, Brett M; Kittner, Steven J; Lichtman, Judith H; Lisabeth, Lynda D; Schwamm, Lee H; Smith, Eric E; Towfighi, Amytis

    2014-01-01

    Stroke mortality has been declining since the early 20th century. The reasons for this are not completely understood, although the decline is welcome. As a result of recent striking and more accelerated decreases in stroke mortality, stroke has fallen from the third to the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. This has prompted a detailed assessment of the factors associated with the change in stroke risk and mortality. This statement considers the evidence for factors that have contributed to the decline and how they can be used in the design of future interventions for this major public health burden. Writing group members were nominated by the committee chair and co-chair on the basis of their previous work in relevant topic areas and were approved by the American Heart Association Stroke Council's Scientific Statements Oversight Committee and the American Heart Association Manuscript Oversight Committee. The writers used systematic literature reviews, references to published clinical and epidemiological studies, morbidity and mortality reports, clinical and public health guidelines, authoritative statements, personal files, and expert opinion to summarize evidence and to indicate gaps in current knowledge. All members of the writing group had the opportunity to comment on this document and approved the final version. The document underwent extensive American Heart Association internal peer review, Stroke Council leadership review, and Scientific Statements Oversight Committee review before consideration and approval by the American Heart Association Science Advisory and Coordinating Committee. The decline in stroke mortality over the past decades represents a major improvement in population health and is observed for both sexes and for all racial/ethnic and age groups. In addition to the overall impact on fewer lives lost to stroke, the major decline in stroke mortality seen among people factor control interventions. Although it is difficult to

  3. The end of the decline in cervical cancer mortality in Spain: trends across the period 1981-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervantes-Amat, Marta; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Aragonés, Nuria; Pollán, Marina; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz

    2015-04-15

    In Spain, cervical cancer prevention is based on opportunistic screening, due to the disease's traditionally low incidence and mortality rates. Changes in sexual behaviour, tourism and migration have, however, modified the probability of exposure to human papilloma virus among Spaniards. This study thus sought to evaluate recent cervical cancer mortality trends in Spain. We used annual female population figures and individual records of deaths certified as cancer of cervix, reclassifying deaths recorded as unspecified uterine cancer to correct coding quality problems. Joinpoint models were fitted to estimate change points in trends, as well as the annual (APC) and average annual percentage change. Log-linear Poisson models were also used to study age-period-cohort effects on mortality trends and their change points. 1981 marked the beginning of a decline in cervical cancer mortality (APC(1981-2003): -3.2; 95% CI:-3.4;-3.0) that ended in 2003, with rates reaching a plateau in the last decade (APC2003-2012: 0.1; 95% CI:-0.9; 1.2). This trend, which was observable among women aged 45-46 years (APC(2003-2012): 1.4; 95% CI:-0.1;2.9) and over 65 years (APC(2003-2012): -0.1; 95% CI:-1.9;1.7), was clearest in Spain's Mediterranean and Southern regions. The positive influence of opportunistic screening is not strong enough to further reduce cervical cancer mortality rates in the country. Our results suggest that the Spanish Health Authorities should reform current prevention programmes and surveillance strategies in order to confront the challenges posed by cervical cancer.

  4. Widening rural-urban disparities in all-cause mortality and mortality from major causes of death in the USA, 1969-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Gopal K; Siahpush, Mohammad

    2014-04-01

    This study examined trends in rural-urban disparities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the USA between 1969 and 2009. A rural-urban continuum measure was linked to county-level mortality data. Age-adjusted death rates were calculated by sex, race, cause-of-death, area-poverty, and urbanization level for 13 time periods between 1969 and 2009. Cause-of-death decomposition and log-linear and Poisson regression were used to analyze rural-urban differentials. Mortality rates increased with increasing levels of rurality overall and for non-Hispanic whites, blacks, and American Indians/Alaska Natives. Despite the declining mortality trends, mortality risks for both males and females and for blacks and whites have been increasingly higher in non-metropolitan than metropolitan areas, particularly since 1990. In 2005-2009, mortality rates varied from 391.9 per 100,000 population for Asians/Pacific Islanders in rural areas to 1,063.2 for blacks in small-urban towns. Poverty gradients were steeper in rural areas, which maintained higher mortality than urban areas after adjustment for poverty level. Poor blacks in non-metropolitan areas experienced two to three times higher all-cause and premature mortality risks than affluent blacks and whites in metropolitan areas. Disparities widened over time; excess mortality from all causes combined and from several major causes of death in non-metropolitan areas was greater in 2005-2009 than in 1990-1992. Causes of death contributing most to the increasing rural-urban disparity and higher rural mortality include heart disease, unintentional injuries, COPD, lung cancer, stroke, suicide, diabetes, nephritis, pneumonia/influenza, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease. Residents in metropolitan areas experienced larger mortality reductions during the past four decades than non-metropolitan residents, contributing to the widening gap.

  5. Heart rate reserve predicts cardiovascular death among physically unfit but otherwise healthy middle-aged men: a 35-year follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeseth, Kristian; Hodnesdal, Christian; Grundvold, Irene; Liestøl, Knut; Gjesdal, Knut; Erikssen, Gunnar; Kjeldsen, Sverre E; Erikssen, Jan E; Bodegard, Johan; Skretteberg, Per Torger

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate reserve (HRR) has been reported to be inversely associated with cardiovascular (CV) disease and death. The impact of physical fitness (PF) on this relationship has not, however, been described in detail. We investigated how different levels of PF influenced the association between HRR and CV death during a 35-year follow-up. HRR and PF were measured in 2014 apparently healthy, middle-aged men during a symptom-limited bicycle exercise test in 1972-75. The men were divided into tertiles (T1-T3) by age-adjusted HRR. Morbidity and mortality data were registered from hospital charts through 2007 and the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to calculate risks. Incidence of CV death was 528 (26%) during median 30 years of follow-up. Men with the lowest HRR had 41% (HR 1.41 [1.14-1.75]) increased risk of CV death compared with the men with the highest. We found a significant interaction between age-adjusted PF and HRR. After stratifying the men by PF, results were statistically significant only among men with the lowest PF, where the men with lowest HRR had a 70% (HR 1.70 [1.12-2.67]) increased risk of CV death compared with the men with the highest. Low HRR was independently associated with increased risk of CV death in apparently healthy, middle-aged men. The predictive impact of HRR on CV death risk was, however, confined to unfit men. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  6. Will the European Union reach the United Nations Millennium declaration target of a 50% reduction of tuberculosis mortality between 1990 and 2015?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, Marieke J; Bonfigli, Sandro; Hruba, Frantiska

    2017-07-06

    The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) provide targets for 2015. MDG 6 includes a target to reduce the tuberculosis (TB) death rate by 50% compared with 1990. We aimed to assess whether this target was reached by the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area countries. We used Eurostat causes of death data to assess whether the target was reached in the EU. We calculated the reduction in reported and adjusted death rates and the annual average percentage decline based on the available data. Between 1999 and 2014, the TB death rate decreased by 50%, the adjusted death rate by 56% and the annual average percentage decline was 5.43% (95% confidence interval 4.94-6.74) for the EU. Twenty of 26 countries reporting >5 TB deaths in the first reporting year reached the target of 50% reduction in adjusted death rate. The EU reached the MDG target of a 50% reduction of the TB death rate and also the annual average percentage decline was larger than the 2.73% needed to reach the target. The World Health Organization 'End TB Strategy' requires a further reduction of the number of TB deaths of 35% by 2020 compared to 2015, which will challenge TB prevention and care services in the EU.

  7. A population-based study of homicide deaths in Ontario, Canada using linked death records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachaud, James; Donnelly, Peter D; Henry, David; Kornas, Kathy; Calzavara, Andrew; Bornbaum, Catherine; Rosella, Laura

    2017-07-24

    Homicide - a lethal expression of violence - has garnered little attention from public health researchers and health policy makers, despite the fact that homicides are a cause of preventable and premature death. Identifying populations at risk and the upstream determinants of homicide are important for addressing inequalities that hinder population health. This population-based study investigates the public health significance of homicides in Ontario, Canada, over the period of 1999-2012. We quantified the relative burden of homicides by comparing the socioeconomic gradient in homicides with the leading causes of death, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and neoplasm, and estimated the potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to homicide. We linked vital statistics from the Office of the Registrar General Deaths register (ORG-D) with Census and administrative data for all Ontario residents. We extracted all homicide, neoplasm, and cardiovascular deaths from 1999 to 2012, using International Classification of Diseases codes. For socioeconomic status (SES), we used two dimensions of the Ontario Marginalization Index (ON-Marg): material deprivation and residential instability. Trends were summarized across deprivation indices using age-specific rates, rate ratios, and PYLL. Young males, 15-29 years old, were the main victims of homicide with a rate of 3.85 [IC 95%: 3.56; 4.13] per 100,000 population and experienced an upward trend over the study period. The socioeconomic neighbourhood gradient was substantial and higher than the gradient for both cardiovascular and neoplasms. Finally, the PYLL due to homicide were 63,512 and 24,066 years for males and females, respectively. Homicides are an important cause of death among young males, and populations living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Our findings raise concerns about the burden of homicides in the Canadian population and the importance of addressing social determinants to address these premature deaths.

  8. Theoretical explanations of the rapid fertility decline in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C

    1986-07-01

    A 1982 population census recorded China's fertility rate in 1982 at 2.6; recent statistics of China's State Statistics Bureau record China's 1984 birth rate at 17 per 1000 and the total fertility rate at 1.94. Wu Cangping asserts that this world-recognized rapid fertility decline is not due to any compulsory governmental restrictions on fertility, but to the people's willingness to control fertility voluntarily. He cites a number of socioeconomic factors contributing to this voluntary decline in China's birth rates: 1) change of family function; 2) decline of mortality, particularly infant mortality; 3) improvement in the educational level; 4) improvement in women's social status, especially increased employment; 5) better social security services for the elderly; 6) the preference for modern ways of production and life; and 7) the availability of information on population and birth control. He attributes these factors to the socialist system with its nationalized production, centralized planning of the national economy, and the even distribution system which prevents polarization of earning. In addition, reforms have been carried out in all aspects of social life and recent advances have been made in science and technology. All of these factors have resulted in a more rapid fertility transition in China as compared to that of developed countries in their past and that of developing countries at present.

  9. Do loss to follow-up and death rates from ART care vary across primary health care facilities and hospitals in south Ethiopia? A retrospective follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teshome, Wondu; Belayneh, Mehretu; Moges, Mathewos; Mekonnen, Emebet; Endrias, Misganu; Ayele, Sinafiksh; Misganaw, Tebeje; Shiferaw, Mekonnen; Tesema, Tigist

    2015-01-01

    Decentralization and task shifting has significantly improved access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). Many studies conducted to determine the attrition rate in Ethiopia have not compared attrition rates between hospitals and health centers in a relatively recent cohort of patients. This study compared death and loss to follow-up (LTFU) rates among ART patients in hospitals and health centers in south Ethiopia. Data routinely collected from patients aged older than 15 years who started ART between July 2011 and August 2012 in 20 selected health facilities (12 being hospitals) were analyzed. The outcomes of interest were LTFU and death. The data were entered, cleaned, and analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 20.0 and Stata version 12.0. Competing-risk regression models were used. The service years of the facilities were similar (median 8 and 7.5 for hospitals and health centers, respectively). The mean patient age was 33.7±9.6 years. The median baseline CD4 count was 179 (interquartile range 93-263) cells/mm(3). A total of 2,356 person-years of observation were made with a median follow-up duration of 28 (interquartile range 22-31) months; 24.6% were either dead or LTFU, resulting in a retention rate of 75.4%. The death rates were 3.0 and 1.5 and the LTFU rate were 9.0 and 10.9 per 100 person-years of observation in health centers and hospitals, respectively. The competing-risk regression model showed that the gap between testing and initiation of ART, body mass index, World Health Organization clinical stage, isoniazid prophylaxis, age, facility type, and educational status were independently associated with LTFU. Moreover, baseline tuberculous disease, poor functional status, and follow-up at a health center were associated with an elevated probability of death. We observed a higher death rate and a lower LTFU rate in health centers than in hospitals. Most of the associated variables were also previously documented. Higher LTFU was

  10. Declining rates of sterilization procedures in Western Australian women from 1990 to 2008: the relationship with age, hospital type, and government policy changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jama-Alol, Khadra A; Bremner, Alexandra P; Stewart, Louise M; Kemp-Casey, Anna; Malacova, Eva; Moorin, Rachael; Shirangi, Adeleh; Preen, David B

    2016-09-01

    To describe trends in age-specific incidence rates of female sterilization (FS) procedures in Western Australia and to evaluate the effects of the introduction of government-subsidized contraceptive methods and the implementation of the Australian government's baby bonus policy on FS rates. Population-based retrospective descriptive study. Not applicable. All women ages 15-49 undergoing an FS procedure during the period January 1, 1990, to December 31, 2008 (n = 47,360 procedures). Records from statutory statewide data collections of hospitals separations and births were extracted and linked. Trends in FS procedures and the influence on these trends of the introduction of government policies: subsidization of long-acting reversible contraceptives (Implanon and Mirena) and the Australian baby bonus initiative. The annual incidence rate of FS procedures declined from 756.9 per 100,000 women in 1990 to 155.2 per 100,000 women in 2008. Compared with the period 1990-1994, women ages 30-39 years were 47% less likely (rate ratio [RR] = 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39-0.72) to undergo sterilization during the period 2005-2008. Adjusting for overall trend, there were significant decreases in FS rates after government subsidization of Implanon (RR = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.97) and Mirena (RR = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.73-0.91) and the introduction of the baby bonus (RR = 0.70; 95% CI, 0.61-0.81). Rates of female sterilization procedures in Western Australia have declined substantially across all age groups in the last two decades. Women's decisions to undergo sterilization procedures may be influenced by government interventions that increase access to long-term reversible contraceptives or encourage childbirth. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Medicare Readmission Rates Showed Meaningful Decline in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — From 2007 through 2011, the national 30-day, all-cause, hospital readmission rate averaged 19 percent. During calendar year 2012, the readmission rate averaged 18.4...

  12. Functional network integrity presages cognitive decline in preclinical Alzheimer disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Rachel F; Schultz, Aaron P; Hedden, Trey; Papp, Kathryn V; Hanseeuw, Bernard J; Marshall, Gad; Sepulcre, Jorge; Smith, Emily E; Rentz, Dorene M; Johnson, Keith A; Sperling, Reisa A; Chhatwal, Jasmeer P

    2017-07-04

    To examine the utility of resting-state functional connectivity MRI (rs-fcMRI) measurements of network integrity as a predictor of future cognitive decline in preclinical Alzheimer disease (AD). A total of 237 clinically normal older adults (aged 63-90 years, Clinical Dementia Rating 0) underwent baseline β-amyloid (Aβ) imaging with Pittsburgh compound B PET and structural and rs-fcMRI. We identified 7 networks for analysis, including 4 cognitive networks (default, salience, dorsal attention, and frontoparietal control) and 3 noncognitive networks (primary visual, extrastriate visual, motor). Using linear and curvilinear mixed models, we used baseline connectivity in these networks to predict longitudinal changes in preclinical Alzheimer cognitive composite (PACC) performance, both alone and interacting with Aβ burden. Median neuropsychological follow-up was 3 years. Baseline connectivity in the default, salience, and control networks predicted longitudinal PACC decline, unlike connectivity in the dorsal attention and all noncognitive networks. Default, salience, and control network connectivity was also synergistic with Aβ burden in predicting decline, with combined higher Aβ and lower connectivity predicting the steepest curvilinear decline in PACC performance. In clinically normal older adults, lower functional connectivity predicted more rapid decline in PACC scores over time, particularly when coupled with increased Aβ burden. Among examined networks, default, salience, and control networks were the strongest predictors of rate of change in PACC scores, with the inflection point of greatest decline beyond the fourth year of follow-up. These results suggest that rs-fcMRI may be a useful predictor of early, AD-related cognitive decline in clinical research settings. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  13. Massive haemoptysis death and other morbidity associated with high dose rate intraluminal radiotherapy for carcinoma of the bronchus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gollins, S.W.; Ryder, W.D.J.; Burt, P.A.; Barber, P.V.; Stout, R.

    1996-01-01

    %) did not. For surviving patients the instantaneous risk of death at any one time (the cause-specific death rate expressed as deaths per 100 cases per month), showed a sharp peak for MH deaths between 9 and 12 months post ILT in contradistinction to OC death where the peak was between 3 and 6 months post ILT. These findings may imply a role for late radiation reaction in the treatment-related risk factors identified as increasing the relative risk of MH death and possible mechanisms are discussed. The results have implications for treatment regimes that use a dose of 2000 cGy at 1 cm in a single fraction technique, that have a high frequency of previous laser treatment, that use multiple, repeated ILT treatments in the same location and that use ILT concurrently with EB

  14. Linking performance decline to choking: players' perceptions in basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryer, Ashley Marie; Tenenbaum, Gershon; Chow, Graig M

    2018-02-01

    This study was aimed at examining how basketball players view unexpected performance errors in basketball, and under what conditions they perceive them as choking. Fifty-three basketball players were randomly assigned into 2 groups (game half) to evaluate the linkage between performance decline and choking as a function of game-time, score gap and game half. Within each group, players viewed 8 scenario clips, which featured a different player conducting an error, and subsequently rated the extent of performance decline, the instance of choking and the salience of various performance attributions regarding the error. The analysis revealed that choking was most salient in the 2nd half of the game, but an error was perceived as choking more saliently in the beginning of the 2nd half. This trend was also shown for players' perception of performance decline. Players' ratings of the attributions assigned to errors, however, revealed that during the end of the 2nd half, time pressure and lack of concentration were the causes of errors. Overall, the results provide evidence towards a conceptual framework linking performance decline to the perception of choking, and that errors conducted by players are perceived as choking when there is not a salient reason to suggest its occurrence.

  15. Religious affiliation at time of death - Global estimates and projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skirbekk, Vegard; Todd, Megan; Stonawski, Marcin

    2018-03-01

    Religious affiliation influences societal practices regarding death and dying, including palliative care, religiously acceptable health service procedures, funeral rites and beliefs about an afterlife. We aimed to estimate and project religious affiliation at the time of death globally, as this information has been lacking. We compiled data on demographic information and religious affiliation from more than 2500 surveys, registers and censuses covering 198 nations/territories. We present estimates of religious affiliation at the time of death as of 2010, projections up to and including 2060, taking into account trends in mortality, religious conversion, intergenerational transmission of religion, differential fertility, and gross migration flows, by age and sex. We find that Christianity continues to be the most common religion at death, although its share will fall from 37% to 31% of global deaths between 2010 and 2060. The share of individuals identifying as Muslim at the time of death increases from 21% to 24%. The share of religiously unaffiliated will peak at 17% in 2035 followed by a slight decline thereafter. In specific regions, such as Europe, the unaffiliated share will continue to rises from 14% to 21% throughout the period. Religious affiliation at the time of death is changing globally, with distinct regional patterns. This could affect spatial variation in healthcare and social customs relating to death and dying.

  16. Low dose rate radiation favors apoptosis as a mechanism of cell death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murtha, Albert D.; Rupnow, Brent; Knox, Susan J.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose/Objective: Radioimmunotherapy (RIT) has demonstrated promising results in the treatment of chemotherapy refractory non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The radiation associated with this therapy is emitted in a continuous fashion at low dose rates (LDR). Results from studies comparing the relative efficacy of LDR radiation and high dose rate (HDR) radiation on malignant cell killing have been variable. This variability may be due in part to the relative contribution of different mechanisms of cell killing (apoptosis or necrosis) at different dose rates. Materials and Methods: In order to test this hypothesis, the relative efficacy of LDR (16.7 cGy/hr) and HDR radiation (422 cGy/min) were compared using a human B cell lymphoma cell line (PW) and a PW clone (c26) stably transfected to overexpress the anti-apoptotic gene Bcl-2. The endpoints evaluated included the relative amount of cell killing, the fraction of cell killing attributable to apoptosis versus necrosis, and the impact of Bcl-2 overexpression on both overall cell killing and the fraction of killing attributable to apoptosis. Results: HDR and LDR radiation resulted in similar overall cell killing in the PW wild type cell line. In contrast, killing of clone c26 cells was dose rate dependent. One third less killing was seen following LDR irradiation of c26 cells compared with equivalent doses of HDR radiation. Analysis of the relative mechanisms of killing following LDR irradiation revealed a relative increase in the proportion of killing attributable to apoptosis. Conclusion: These findings support the hypothesis that in PW cells, LDR radiation appears to be highly dependent on apoptosis as a mechanism of cell death. These findings may have implications for the selection of patients for RIT, and for the treatment of tumors that overexpress Bcl-2. They may also help form the basis for future rational design of effective combined modality therapies utilizing RIT

  17. Kidney Function Decline and Apparent Treatment-Resistant Hypertension in the Elderly.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Kaboré

    Full Text Available Cross-sectional studies show a strong association between chronic kidney disease and apparent treatment-resistant hypertension, but the longitudinal association of the rate of kidney function decline with the risk of resistant hypertension is unknown.The population-based Three-City included 8,695 participants older than 65 years, 4265 of them treated for hypertension. We estimated the odds ratios (OR of new-onset apparent treatment-resistant hypertension, defined as blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg despite use of 3 antihypertensive drug classes or ≥ 4 classes regardless of blood pressure, associated with the mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR level and its rate of decline over 4 years, compared with both controlled hypertension and uncontrolled nonresistant hypertension with ≤ 2 drugs. GFR was estimated with three different equations.Baseline prevalence of apparent treatment-resistant hypertension and of controlled and uncontrolled nonresistant hypertension, were 6.5%, 62.3% and 31.2%, respectively. During follow-up, 162 participants developed apparent treatment-resistant hypertension. Mean eGFR decline with the MDRD equation was 1.5±2.9 mL/min/1.73 m² per year: 27.7% of the participants had an eGFR ≥3 and 10.1% ≥ 5 mL/min/1.73 m² per year. After adjusting for age, sex, obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular history, the ORs for new-onset apparent treatment-resistant hypertension associated with a mean eGFR level, per 15 mL/min/1.73 m² drop, were 1.23 [95% confidence interval 0.91-1.64] compared to controlled hypertension and 1.10 [0.83-1.45] compared to uncontrolled nonresistant hypertension; ORs associated with a decline rate ≥ 3 mL/min/1.73 m² per year were 1.89 [1.09-3.29] and 1.99 [1.19-3.35], respectively. Similar results were obtained when we estimated GFR with the CKDEPI and the BIS1 equations. ORs tended to be higher for an eGFR decline rate ≥ 5 mL/min/1.73 m² per year.The speed of kidney function decline is

  18. Declining rates of sterilisation reversal procedures in western Australian women from 1990 to 2008: the relationship with age, hospital type and government policy changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jama-Alol, Khadra A; Bremner, Alexandra P; Pereira, Gavin; Stewart, Louise M; Malacova, Eva; Moorin, Rachael; Preen, David B

    2017-11-25

    Female sterilisation is usually performed on an elective basis at perceived family completion, however, around 1-3% of women who have undergone sterilisation elect to undergo sterilisation reversal (SR) at a later stage. The trends in SR rates in Western Australia (WA), proportions of SR procedures between hospital types (public and private), and the effects of Federal Government policies on these trends are unknown. Using records from statutory state-wide data collections of hospital separations and births, we conducted a retrospective descriptive study of all women aged 15-49 years who underwent a SR procedure during the period 1st January 1990 to 31st December 2008 (n = 1868 procedures). From 1991 to 2007 the annual incidence rate of SR procedures per 10,000 women declined from 47.0 to 3.6. Logistic regression modelling showed that from 1997 to 2001 the odds of women undergoing SR in a private hospital as opposed to all other hospitals were 1.39 times higher (95% CI 1.07-1.81) and 7.51 times higher (95% CI 5.46-10.31) from 2002 to 2008. There were significant decreases in SR rates overall and among different age groups after the Federal Government interventions. Rates of SR procedures in WA have declined from 1990 to 2008, particularly following policy changes such as the introduction of private health insurance (PHI) policies. This suggests decisions to undergo SR may be influenced by Federal Government interventions.

  19. Death certificates underestimate infections as proximal causes of death in the U.S.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushant Govindan

    Full Text Available Death certificates are a primary data source for assessing the population burden of diseases; however, there are concerns regarding their accuracy. Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG coding of a terminal hospitalization may provide an alternative view. We analyzed the rate and patterns of disagreement between death certificate data and hospital claims for patients who died during an inpatient hospitalization.We studied respondents from the Health and Retirement Study (a nationally representative sample of older Americans who had an inpatient death documented in the linked Medicare claims from 1993-2007. Causes of death abstracted from death certificates were aggregated to the standard National Center for Health Statistics List of 50 Rankable Causes of Death. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS-DRGs were manually aggregated into a parallel classification. We then compared the two systems via 2×2, focusing on concordance. Our primary analysis was agreement between the two data sources, assessed with percentages and Cohen's kappa statistic.2074 inpatient deaths were included in our analysis. 36.6% of death certificate cause-of-death codes agreed with the reason for the terminal hospitalization in the Medicare claims at the broad category level; when re-classifying DRGs without clear alignment as agreements, the concordance only increased to 61%. Overall Kappa was 0.21, or "fair." Death certificates in this cohort redemonstrated the conventional top 3 causes of death as diseases of the heart, malignancy, and cerebrovascular disease. However, hospitalization claims data showed infections, diseases of the heart, and cerebrovascular disease as the most common diagnoses for the same terminal hospitalizations.There are significant differences between Medicare claims and death certificate data in assigning cause of death for inpatients. The importance of infections as proximal causes of death is underestimated by current death certificate

  20. Risks of rapid decline renal function in patients with type 2 diabetes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yi-Jing; Sheen; Wayne; HH; Sheu

    2014-01-01

    Progressive rising population of diabetes and related nephropathy, namely, diabetic kidney disease and associated end stage renal disease has become a major global public health issue. Results of observational studies indicate that most diabetic kidney disease progresses over decades; however, certain diabetes patients display a rapid decline in renal function, which may lead to renal failure within months. Although the definition of rapid renal function decline remained speculative, in general,it is defined by the decrease of estimated glomerular filtration rate(e GFR) in absolute rate of loss or percent change. Based on the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes 2012 clinical practice guidelines, a rapid decline in renal function is defined as a sustained declinein e GFR of > 5 m L/min per 1.73 m2 per year. It has been reported that potential factors contributing to a rapid decline in renal function include ethnic/genetic and demographic causes, smoking habits, increased glycated hemoglobin levels, obesity, albuminuria, anemia, low serum magnesium levels, high serum phosphate levels, vitamin D deficiency, elevated systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity values, retinopathy, and cardiac autonomic neuropathy. This article reviews current literatures in this area and provides insight on the early detection of diabetic subjects who are at risk of a rapid decline in renal function in order to develop a more aggressive approach to renal and cardiovascular protection.

  1. New relationships among the sudden oak death pathogen, bark and ambrosia beetles, and fungi colonizing coast live oaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadir Erbilgin; Brice A. McPherson; Pierluigi Bonello; David L. Wood; Andrew J. Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Sudden oak death (SOD) has had devastating effects on several oak species in many California coastal forests. Phytophthora ramorum has been identified as the primary causal agent of sudden oak death. While the pathogen may be capable of killing mature trees, it is likely that in nature opportunistic organisms play significant roles in the decline and...

  2. Model of transition between causes of death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damiani, P; Aubenque, M

    1975-06-01

    This paper describes an attempt to estimate the probabilities of transition between various major causes of death during the period 1954-1962. The regression coefficients have been estimated from French département death rates for ten main or typical causes of death, assessed by sex for the age group 45-64 years.

  3. Current state of the problem sudden infant death at home

    OpenAIRE

    Berlay Margarita Vasilievna; Kopylov Anatoliy Vasilievich; Karpov Sergey Mikhailovich

    2017-01-01

    The “Sudden Infant Death Syndrome” stands for unexpected nonviolent death of apparently healthy chest age child when there is no history or pathomorphological features which can be adequate explanations for death reasons. In Russian Federation, the death rate from this syndrome in the range of 0,06 to 2,8 per 1000 live births. In Stavropol region, average figures are equal to 0,36 per 1000 live births in the period of 2005–2014. Rates of incidence sudden infant death syndrome are similar to t...

  4. THE FAST DECLINING TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA 2003gs, AND EVIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION IN NEAR-INFRARED ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDES OF FAST DECLINERS AT MAXIMUM LIGHT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krisciunas, Kevin; Marion, G. H.; Suntzeff, Nicholas B.

    2009-01-01

    We obtained optical photometry of SN 2003gs on 49 nights, from 2 to 494 days after T(B max ). We also obtained near-IR photometry on 21 nights. SN 2003gs was the first fast declining Type Ia SN that has been well observed since SN 1999by. While it was subluminous in optical bands compared to more slowly declining Type Ia SNe, it was not subluminous at maximum light in the near-IR bands. There appears to be a bimodal distribution in the near-IR absolute magnitudes of Type Ia SNe at maximum light. Those that peak in the near-IR after T(B max ) are subluminous in the all bands. Those that peak in the near-IR prior to T(B max ), such as SN 2003gs, have effectively the same near-IR absolute magnitudes at maximum light regardless of the decline rate Δm 15 (B). Near-IR spectral evidence suggests that opacities in the outer layers of SN 2003gs are reduced much earlier than for normal Type Ia SNe. That may allow γ rays that power the luminosity to escape more rapidly and accelerate the decline rate. This conclusion is consistent with the photometric behavior of SN 2003gs in the IR, which indicates a faster than normal decline from approximately normal peak brightness.

  5. Chinese culture and fertility decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C; Jia, S

    1992-01-01

    Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self

  6. Decline traffic information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Plessis, K [Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Sydney (Australia)

    2007-09-06

    BHP Billion (BHPB) Cannington has experienced problems in regards to their traffic flow in the decline at the mine. The problems related to reports on near misses of vehicles moving towards each other in the decline. The decline is also to narrow for trucks to pass each other and the operators need to be aware of oncoming traffic in the decline to ensure they could take early evasive steps to ensure the rules of right of way in the decline are adhered to. BHPB Cannington requested CSC to conduct a problem analysis and to provide a solutions proposal to Cannington. The solution was put forward as an augmentation of their current safety procedures used with in the decline. During this phase of the project CSC developed a solutions architecture which involved the use of Active (Radio Frequency Identification) RFID tagging which will enable vehicle movement tracking on a real time basis after which the appropriate traffic movement can be relayed to the operators in the decline. The primary objective of the DTIS is to provide accurate information of traffic movement in the decline and present that information to the operators of the decline IN THE DECLINE upon which they would make their decisions. (orig.)

  7. Demographic, social, and economic effects on Mexican causes of death in 1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pick, J B; Butler, E W

    1998-01-01

    This study examined spatial geographic patterns of cause of death and 28 demographic and socioeconomic influences on causes of death for 31 Mexican states plus the Federal District for 1990. Mortality data were obtained from the state death registration system and are age standardized. The 28 socioeconomic variables were obtained from Census records. Analysis included 2 submodels: one with all 28 socioeconomic variables in a stepwise regression, and one with each of the 4 groups of factors. The conceptual model is based on epidemiological transition theory and empirical findings. There are 4 stages in mortality decline. Effects are grouped as demographic, sociocultural, economic prosperity, and housing, health, and crime factors. Findings indicate that cancer and cardiovascular disease were strongly correlated and consistently high in border areas as well as the Federal District and Jalisco. Respiratory mortality had higher values in the Federal District, Puebla, and surrounding states, as well as Jalisco. The standardized total mortality rate was only in simple correlations associated inversely with underemployment. All cause specific mortality was associated with individual factors. Respiratory mortality was linked with manufacturing work force. Cardiovascular and cancer mortality were associated with socioeconomic factors. In submodel I, cause specific mortality was predicted by crowding, housing characteristics, marriage and divorce, and manufacturing work force. In submodel II, economic group factors had the strongest model fits explaining 33-60% of the "r" square. Hypothesized effects were only partially validated.

  8. Greenhouse and field assessment of rhizobacteria to control guava decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Macedo Almeida

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In an effort to devise a biological strategy to control guava decline, 120 rhizobacteria isolates were obtained from symptomless guava trees located in Meloidogyne enterolobii-infested orchards. Of those isolates, 44 were assessed for their potential to reduce nematode's reproduction: for each isolate, six guava stem cuttings were embedded for eight hours with bacterial suspension and transplanted. Upon development of the roots, the plants were inoculated with 2000 nematode eggs and allowed to grow for four months under greenhouse. Seedlings embedded with water, inoculated or not with the nematode, served as controls. All treatments were equivalent in the five variables that assessed plant development. Several rhizobacteria reduced (p<0.05 the final nematode population (Fp, Fp/gram of root and reproduction factor, although not to satisfactory levels. Subsequently, a two-year experiment was set up in a guava orchard affected by guava decline, in which three of the most effective rhizobacterial isolates were compared with the biological products Nemat® and Nemaplus® for their ability to reduce variables related to nematode parasitism and increase guava productivity. Seven bimonthly applications of these treatments under the tree canopy were unable to reduce nematode parasitism and increase productivity. The decline and death of some plants forced the experiment to be stopped after the first harvest. In conclusion, rhizobacteria applications seem unable to reduce the parasitism of M. enterolobii on guava plants, and even less to reduce the extensive root decay or alleviate the physiological stress suffered by trees affected by guava decline.

  9. Spatial birth-and-death processes in random environment

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Roberto; Ferrari, Pablo A.; Guerberoff, Gustavo R.

    2004-01-01

    We consider birth-and-death processes of objects (animals) defined in ${\\bf Z}^d$ having unit death rates and random birth rates. For animals with uniformly bounded diameter we establish conditions on the rate distribution under which the following holds for almost all realizations of the birth rates: (i) the process is ergodic with at worst power-law time mixing; (ii) the unique invariant measure has exponential decay of (spatial) correlations; (iii) there exists a perfect-simulation algorit...

  10. Do loss to follow-up and death rates from ART care vary across primary health care facilities and hospitals in south Ethiopia? A retrospective follow-up study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teshome W

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Wondu Teshome,1 Mehretu Belayneh,1 Mathewos Moges,1 Emebet Mekonnen,2 Misganu Endrias,2 Sinafiksh Ayele,2 Tebeje Misganaw,2 Mekonnen Shiferaw,2 Tigist Tesema2 1School of Public and Environmental Health, Hawassa University, 2Health Research and Technology Transfer Support Process, Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples' Regional Health Bureau, Hawassa, Ethiopia Background: Decentralization and task shifting has significantly improved access to antiretroviral therapy (ART. Many studies conducted to determine the attrition rate in Ethiopia have not compared attrition rates between hospitals and health centers in a relatively recent cohort of patients. This study compared death and loss to follow-up (LTFU rates among ART patients in hospitals and health centers in south Ethiopia. Methods: Data routinely collected from patients aged older than 15 years who started ART between July 2011 and August 2012 in 20 selected health facilities (12 being hospitals were analyzed. The outcomes of interest were LTFU and death. The data were entered, cleaned, and analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 20.0 and Stata version 12.0. Competing-risk regression models were used. Results: The service years of the facilities were similar (median 8 and 7.5 for hospitals and health centers, respectively. The mean patient age was 33.7±9.6 years. The median baseline CD4 count was 179 (interquartile range 93–263 cells/mm3. A total of 2,356 person-years of observation were made with a median follow-up duration of 28 (interquartile range 22–31 months; 24.6% were either dead or LTFU, resulting in a retention rate of 75.4%. The death rates were 3.0 and 1.5 and the LTFU rate were 9.0 and 10.9 per 100 person-years of observation in health centers and hospitals, respectively. The competing-risk regression model showed that the gap between testing and initiation of ART, body mass index, World Health Organization clinical stage, isoniazid prophylaxis

  11. Recent Declines in Infant Mortality in the United States, 2005-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 5):1247–53. 2005. National Center for Health Statistics. Provisional monthly and 12-month ending number of live births, deaths, and infant deaths and rates: United States, January 2011–June 2012 [PDF - 20 ...

  12. Decline in measured glomerular filtration rate is associated with a decrease in endurance, strength, balance and fine motor skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellberg, Matthias; Höglund, Peter; Svensson, Philippa; Abdulahi, Huda; Clyne, Naomi

    2017-07-01

    Physical performance in chronic kidney disease affects morbidity and mortality. The aim was to find out which measures of physical performance are important in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and if there are associations with declining measured glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Endurance was assessed by 6 min walk test (6-MWT) and stair climbing, muscular endurance by 30 s sit to stand, heel rises and toe lifts, strength by quadriceps- and handgrip-strength, balance by functional reach and Berg's balance scale, and fine motor skills by Moberg's picking-up test. GFR was measured by Iohexol clearance. The study comprised 101 patients with CKD 3b-5 not started dialysis, 40 women and 61 men, with a mean age of 67 ± 13 (range: 22 - 87) years. All measures of physical performance were impaired. A decrease in GFR of 10 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 corresponded to a 35 metre shorter walking distance in the 6-MWT. Multivariable linear regression analysis showed significant relationships between decline in GFR and the 6-MWT (P = 0.04), isometric quadriceps strength left (P = 0.04), balance measured as functional reach (P = 0.02) and fine motor skills in the left hand as measured by Moberg's picking-up test (P = 0.01), respectively, after sex, age, comorbidity and the interaction between sex and age had been taken into account. Endurance, muscular endurance, strength, balance and fine motor skills were impaired in patients with CKD 3b-5. Walking capacity, isometric quadriceps strength, balance, and fine motor skills were associated with declining GFR. The left extremities were more susceptible to GFR, ageing and comorbidities and seem thus to be more sensitive. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

  13. Childhood deaths from external causes in Estonia, 2001-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Väli, Marika; Lang, Katrin; Soonets, Ruth; Talumäe, Marika; Grjibovski, Andrej M

    2007-07-17

    In 2000, the overall rate of injury deaths in children aged 0-14 was 28.7 per 100000 in Estonia, which is more than 5 times higher than the corresponding rate in neighbouring Finland. This paper describes childhood injury mortality in Estonia by cause and age groups, and validates registration of these deaths in the Statistical Office of Estonia against the autopsy data. The data on causes of all child deaths in Estonia in 2001-2005 were abstracted from the autopsy protocols at the Estonian Bureau of Forensic Medicine. Average annual mortality rates per 100,000 were calculated. Coverage (proportion of the reported injury deaths from the total number of injury deaths) and accuracy (proportion of correctly classified injury deaths) of the registration of causes of death in Statistical Office of Estonia were assessed by comparing the Statistical Office of Estonia data with the data from Estonian Bureau of Forensic Medicine. Average annual mortality from external causes in 0-14 years-old children in Estonia was 19.1 per 100,000. Asphyxia and transport accidents were the major killers followed by poisoning and suicides. Relative contribution of these causes varied greatly between age groups. Intent of death was unknown for more than 10% of injury deaths. Coverage and accuracy of registration of injury deaths by Statistical Office of Estonia were 91.5% and 95.3%, respectively. Childhood mortality from injuries in Estonia is among the highest in the EU. The number of injury deaths in Statistical Office of Estonia is slightly underestimated mostly due to misclassification for deaths from diseases. Accuracy of the Statistical Office of Estonia data was high with some underestimation of intentional deaths. Moreover, high proportion of death with unknown intent suggests underestimation of intentional deaths. Reduction of injury deaths should be given a high priority in Estonia. More information on circumstances around death is needed to enable establishing the intent of death.

  14. Role of climate variability in the heatstroke death rates of Kanto region in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akihiko, Takaya; Morioka, Yushi; Behera, Swadhin K.

    2014-07-01

    The death toll by heatstroke in Japan, especially in Kanto region, has sharply increased since 1994 together with large interannual variability. The surface air temperature and humidity observed during boreal summers of 1980-2010 were examined to understand the role of climate in the death toll. The extremely hot days, when the daily maximum temperature exceeds 35°C, are more strongly associated with the death toll than the conventional Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index. The extremely hot days tend to be associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation or the Indian Ocean Dipole, suggesting a potential link with tropical climate variability to the heatstroke related deaths. Also, the influence of these climate modes on the death toll has strengthened since 1994 probably related to global warming. It is possible to develop early warning systems based on seasonal climate predictions since recent climate models show excellent predictability skills for those climate modes.

  15. Thermal death rate of ascospores of Neosartorya fischeri ATCC 200957 in the presence of organic acids and preservatives in fruit juices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajashekhara, E; Suresh, E R; Ethiraj, S

    1998-10-01

    Heat-resistant molds, including Neosartorya fischeri, are known to spoil thermally processed fruit products. The control measures required for such problems must not cause an appreciable loss of the organoleptic qualities of the final products. In the present study we determined the thermal death rates of ascospores of N. fischeri ATCC 200957 in fruit juices containing organic acids and preservatives. The ascospores were able to survive for more than 6 h of heating at 75 degrees C, 5 h at 80 degrees C, and 3 to 4 h at 85 degrees C in mango or grape juice. Of the four organic acids tested, citric acid exhibited the maximal destruction of ascospores in mango juice at 85 degrees C (1/k = 27.22 min), and tartaric acid the least (1/k = 61.73 min). The effect of common preservatives on the thermal death rates of ascospores at .85 degrees C in mango and grape juices was studied. Almost similar effects on thermal inactivation of ascospores were noted when potassium sorbate (1/k = 29.38 min) or sodium benzoate (1/k = 27.64 min) or the combination of both (1/k = 27.53 min) was used in mango juice. In grape juice, potassium sorbate (1/k = 25.07 min) was more effective than sodium benzoate (1/k = 50.08 min) or the combination of both (1/k = 40.79 min) in inactivation of ascospores of the mold. The thermal death rate (1/k) values in mango and grape juices in the absence of any preservative were 63.51 and 69.27 min respectively.

  16. Decomposing Socioeconomic Inequality Determinants in Suicide Deaths in Iran: A Concentration Index Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veisani, Yousef; Delpisheh, Ali; Sayehmiri, Kourosh; Moradi, Ghobad; Hassanzadeh, Jafar

    2017-05-01

    It is recognized that socioeconomic status (SES) has a significant impact on health and wellbeing; however, the effect of SES on suicide is contested. This study explored the effect of SES in suicide deaths and decomposed inequality into its determinants to calculate relative contributions. Through a cross-sectional study, 546 suicide deaths and 6,818 suicide attempts from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014 in Ilam Province, Western Iran were explored. Inequality was measured by the absolute concentration index (ACI) and decomposed contributions were identified. All analyses were performed using STATA ver. 11.2 (Stata Corp., College Station, TX, USA). The overall ACI for suicide deaths was -0.352 (95% confidence interval, -0.389 to -0.301). According to the results, 9.8% of socioeconomic inequality in suicide deaths was due to addiction in attempters. ACI ranged from -0.34 to -0.03 in 2010-2014, showing that inequality in suicide deaths declined over time. Findings showed suicide deaths were distributed among the study population unequally, and our results confirmed a gap between advantaged and disadvantaged attempters in terms of death. Socioeconomic inequalities in suicide deaths tended to diminish over time, as suicide attempts progressed in Ilam Province.

  17. Global amphibian declines: perspectives from the United States and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Densmore, Christine L.; Cipriano, R.C.; Bruckner, A.W.; Shchelkunov, I.S.

    2011-01-01

    Over recent decades, amphibians have experienced population declines, extirpations and species-level extinctions at an alarming rate. Numerous potential etiologies for amphibian declines have been postulated including climate and habitat degradation. Other potential anthropogenic causes including overexploitation and the frequent introductions of invasive predatory species have also been blamed for amphibian declines. Still other underlying factors may include infectious diseases caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, pathogenic viruses (Ranavirus), and other agents. It is nearly certain that more than one etiology is to blame for the majority of the global amphibian declines, and that these causal factors include some combination of climatological or physical habitat destabilization and infectious disease, most notably chytridiomycosis. Scientific research efforts are aimed at elucidating these etiologies on local, regional, and global scales that we might better understand and counteract the driving forces behind amphibian declines. Conservation efforts as outlined in the Amphibian Conservation Action Plan of 2005 are also being made to curtail losses and prevent further extinctions wherever possible.

  18. Cardiovascular disease mortality in the Americas: current trends and disparities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Fatima Marinho de Souza, Maria; Gawryszewski, Vilma Pinheiro; Orduñez, Pedro; Sanhueza, Antonio; Espinal, Marcos A

    2012-08-01

    To describe the current situation and trends in mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Americas and explore their association with economic indicators. This time series study analysed mortality data from 21 countries in the region of the Americas from 2000 to the latest available year. Age-adjusted death rates, annual variation in death rates. Regression analysis was used to estimate the annual variation and the association between age-adjusted rates and country income. Currently, CVD comprised 33.7% of all deaths in the Americas. Rates were higher in Guyana (292/100 000), Trinidad and Tobago (289/100 000) and Venezuela (246/100 000), and lower in Canada (108/100 000), Puerto Rico (121/100 000) and Chile (125/100 000). Male rates were higher than female rates in all countries. The trend analysis showed that CVD death rates in the Americas declined -19% overall (-20% among women and -18% among men). Most countries had a significant annual decline, except Guatemala, Guyana, Suriname, Paraguay and Panama. The largest annual declines were observed in Canada (-4.8%), the USA (-3.9%) and Puerto Rico (-3.6%). Minor declines were in Mexico (-0.8%) and Cuba (-1.1%). Compared with high-income countries the difference between the median of death rates in lower middle-income countries was 56.7% higher and between upper middle-income countries was 20.6% higher. CVD death rates have been decreasing in most countries in the Americas. Considerable disparities still remain in the current rates and trends.

  19. Particle retention in porous media: Applications to water injectivity decline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wennberg, Kjell Erik

    1998-12-31

    This thesis studies the problem of migration and deposition of colloidal particles within porous media, theoretically and by computerized simulation. Special emphasis is put on the prediction of injectivity decline in water injection wells due to inherent particles in the injection water. The study of particle deposition within porous media requires a correct prediction of the deposition rate or filtration coefficient. A thorough review of the modeling approaches used in the past are combined with new ideas in order to arrive at an improved model for the prediction of the filtration coefficient. A new way of determining the transition time for the dominant deposition mechanism to change from internal deposition to external cake formation is proposed. From this fundamental theory, equations are given for water injectivity decline predictions. A computer program called WID for water injectivity decline predictions was developed. Using water quality, formation properties, injection rate/pressure and completion information as input, WID predicts decline in vertical and horizontal injection wells with openhole, perforated and fractured completions. The calculations agree fairly well with field data; in some cases the agreement is excellent. A poor match in a few cases indicates that more mechanisms may be responsible for injectivity decline than those presently accounted for by the simulator. The second part of the study deals with a theoretical investigation of the multi-dimensional nature of particle deposition in porous media. 112 refs., 100 figs., 9 tabs.

  20. Sudden unexpected death caused by stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ågesen, Frederik Nybye; Risgaard, Bjarke; Zachariasardóttir, Sára

    2017-01-01

    Background Stroke is the fifth leading cause of death in young individuals globally. Data on the burden of sudden death by stroke are sparse in the young. Aims The aim of this study was to report mortality rates, cause of death, stroke subtype, and symptoms in children and young adults who suffered....... There was a male predominance (56%) and the median age was 33 years. The incidence of sudden death by stroke in individuals aged 1-49 years was 0.19 deaths per 100,000 person-years. Stroke was hemorrhagic in 94% of cases, whereof subarachnoid hemorrhage was the cause of death in 63% of cases. Seventeen (33%) cases...... contacted the healthcare system because of neurological symptoms, whereof one was suspected of having a stroke (6%). Conclusions Sudden death by stroke in children and young adults occurs primarily due to hemorrhagic stroke. We report a high frequency of neurological symptoms prior to sudden death by stroke...

  1. Gun ownership and firearm-related deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangalore, Sripal; Messerli, Franz H

    2013-10-01

    A variety of claims about possible associations between gun ownership rates, mental illness burden, and the risk of firearm-related deaths have been put forward. However, systematic data on this issue among various countries remain scant. Our objective was to assess whether the popular notion "guns make a nation safer" has any merits. Data on gun ownership were obtained from the Small Arms Survey, and for firearm-related deaths from a European detailed mortality database (World Health Organization), the National Center for Health Statistics, and others. Crime rate was used as an indicator of safety of the nation and was obtained from the United Nations Surveys of Crime Trends. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rates due to major depressive disorder per 100,000 inhabitants with data obtained from the World Health Organization database were used as a putative indicator for mental illness burden in a given country. Among the 27 developed countries, there was a significant positive correlation between guns per capita per country and the rate of firearm-related deaths (r = 0.80; P ownership and mental illness as independent covariates, gun ownership was a significant predictor (P <.0001) of firearm-related deaths, whereas mental illness was of borderline significance (P = .05) only. The number of guns per capita per country was a strong and independent predictor of firearm-related death in a given country, whereas the predictive power of the mental illness burden was of borderline significance in a multivariable model. Regardless of exact cause and effect, however, the current study debunks the widely quoted hypothesis that guns make a nation safer. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Factors affecting death at home in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauvaget, C; Tsuji, I; Li, J H; Hosokawa, T; Fukao, A; Hisamichi, S

    1996-10-01

    Despite the wish of the Japanese people to spend their final moments at home, the percentage of deaths at home among elderly is decreasing. Moreover, large variations in this rate were observed over the country. The present ecological study analyzed the relationship between the percentage of deaths at home for decedents aged 70 and over, and demographic, medical and socioeconomic characteristics. The data published in 1990 by the Japanese National Government were analyzed by correlation, principal-component, and multiple linear regression analyses. The results showed that the percentage of deaths at home for decedents aged 70 and over was positively associated with the number of persons per household, and the area of floor space per house. The divorce rate, the national tax per capita, and the mean length of hospitalization for stroke showed a negative association with the percentage of deaths at home. In the prefectures where the crude death rates of stroke and senility were high, elderly were more likely to die at home. These results suggested the importance of the number of family caregivers, and the housing conditions for terminal care at home. This research may lead to improve home medical assistance which is still underdeveloped in Japan.

  3. Timing of maternal death: Levels, trends, and ecological correlates using sibling data from 34 sub-Saharan African countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leena Merdad

    Full Text Available Millennium Development Goal 5 has not been universally achieved, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding whether maternal deaths occur during pregnancy, childbirth, or puerperium is important to effectively plan maternal health programs and allocate resources. Our main research objectives are to (1 describe the proportions and rates of mortality for the antepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum periods; (2 document how these trends vary by sub-region; and (3 investigate ecological correlations between these rates and maternal care interventions. We used data from the Demographic and Health Survey program, which comprises 84 surveys from 34 sub-Saharan African countries conducted between 1990 and 2014. We calculated age-standardized maternal mortality rates and time-specific maternal mortality rates and proportions, and we assessed correlations with maternal care coverage. We found high levels of maternal mortality in all three periods. Time-specific maternal mortality rates varied by country and region, with some showing an orderly decline in all three periods and others exhibiting alarming increases in antepartum and postpartum mortality. Ecological analysis showed that antenatal care coverage was significantly associated with low antepartum mortality, whereas the presence of a skilled attendant at childbirth was significantly associated with low postpartum mortality. In sub-Saharan Africa, maternal deaths occur at high rates in all three risk periods, and vary substantially by country and region. The provision of maternal care is a predictor of time-specific maternal mortality. These results confirm the need for country-specific interventions during the continuum of care to achieve the global commitment to eliminating preventable maternal mortality.

  4. Farmer's lung is now in decline.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Arya, A

    2012-02-03

    Farmer\\'s lung incidence in Ireland was constant until 1996, even though hay making methods were revolutionised in late 1980\\'s. We undertook this study to find out the incidence of farmer\\'s lung in Ireland from 1982-2002 and its correlation with rainfall and the effect of changing farm practices. The primary cases of farmer\\'s lung were identified from Hospital in Patients Enquiry (HIPE) unit of the national Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) Dublin. Rainfall data were obtained from Met Eireann whereas population, hay production and silage production were obtained from the Central Statistics Office, Dublin. As the farming population is in decline, we used the annual working unit (AWU), which reflects the true population at risk. An AWU is the equivalent of 1800 hours per farm worker per year. The incidence rates were constant from 1982-1996, but from 1997-2002 a marked decline was observed. There was strong positive correlation with hay production (r = 0.81) and strong negative correlation with silage production (r = -0.82). This study indicates that the incidence of farmer\\'s lung is now in decline.

  5. NCHS - Leading Causes of Death: United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This dataset presents the age-adjusted death rates for the 10 leading causes of death in the United States beginning in 1999. Data are based on information from all...

  6. Neurocognitive processes of linguistic cues related to death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shihui; Qin, Jungang; Ma, Yina

    2010-10-01

    Consciousness of the finiteness of one's personal existence influences human thoughts and behaviors tremendously. However, the neural substrates underlying the processing of death-related information remain unclear. The current study addressed this issue by scanning 20 female adults, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, in a modified Stroop task that required naming colors of death-related, negative-valence, and neutral-valence words. We found that, while both death-related and negative-valence words increased activity in the precuneus/posterior cingulate and lateral frontal cortex relative to neutral-valence words, the neural correlate of the processing of death-related words was characterized by decreased activity in bilateral insula relative to both negative-valence and neutral-valence words. Moreover, the decreased activity in the left insula correlated with subjective ratings of death relevance of death-related words and the decreased activity in the right insula correlated with subjective ratings of arousal induced by death-related words. Our fMRI findings suggest that, while both death-related and negative-valence words are associated with enhanced arousal and emotion regulation, the processing of linguistic cues related to death is associated with modulations of the activity in the insula that mediates neural representation of the sentient self. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Metabolic Syndrome and 16-year Cognitive Decline in Community-Dwelling Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, Linda K.; Laughlin, Gail A.; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Bergstrom, Jaclyn; Kritz-Silverstein, Donna; Der-Martirosian, Claudia; von Mühlen, Denise

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE To determine whether metabolic syndrome is associated with accelerated cognitive decline in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS Longitudinal study of 993 adults (mean 66.8 ± 8.7 years) from the Rancho Bernardo Study. Metabolic syndrome components, defined by 2001 NCEP-ATP III criteria, were measured in 1984–87. Cognitive function was first assessed in 1988–92. Cognitive assessments were repeated approximately every four years, for a maximum 16-year follow-up. Mixed-effects models examined longitudinal rate of cognitive decline by metabolic syndrome status, controlling for factors plausibly associated with cognitive function (diabetes, inflammation). RESULTS Metabolic syndrome was more common in men than women (14% vs. 9%, p=0.01). In women, metabolic syndrome was associated with greater executive function and long term memory decline. These associations did not differ by inflammatory biomarker levels. Diabetes did not alter the association of metabolic syndrome with long-term recall but modified the association with executive function: metabolic syndrome was associated with accelerated executive function decline in diabetic women only. Metabolic syndrome was not related to rate of decline on any cognitive measure in men. CONCLUSIONS Metabolic syndrome was a risk factor for accelerated cognitive decline, but only in women. Prevention of metabolic syndrome may aid in maintenance of cognitive function with age. PMID:22285865

  8. Potentially avoidable perinatal deaths in Denmark and Sweden 1991

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langhoff-Roos, J; Borch-Christensen, H; Larsen, S

    1996-01-01

    to some extent could reflect differences in the quality of care, indicated by the numbers of perinatal deaths in categories of potentially avoidable deaths. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Medical records of 97% of all perinatal deaths in 1991 in the two countries were analyzed. A new classification focusing......BACKGROUND: Since 1950 the perinatal mortality has been significantly higher in Denmark than in Sweden. In 1991 the rate in Denmark was 8.0/1000 deliveries compared to 6.5/1000 in Sweden. An international audit was designed to investigate whether the perinatal death rates in the two countries...

  9. Potentially avoidable perinatal deaths in Denmark and Sweden 1991

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langhoff-Roos, J; Borch-Christensen, H; Larsen, S

    1996-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Since 1950 the perinatal mortality has been significantly higher in Denmark than in Sweden. In 1991 the rate in Denmark was 8.0/1000 deliveries compared to 6.5/1000 in Sweden. An international audit was designed to investigate whether the perinatal death rates in the two countries...... to some extent could reflect differences in the quality of care, indicated by the numbers of perinatal deaths in categories of potentially avoidable deaths. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Medical records of 97% of all perinatal deaths in 1991 in the two countries were analyzed. A new classification focusing...

  10. Cardiovascular Prevention of Cognitive Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Jacques Monsuez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Midlife cardiovascular risk factors, including diabetes, hypertension, dyslipemia, and an unhealthy lifestyle, have been linked to subsequent incidence, delay of onset, and progression rate of Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia. Conversely, optimal treatment of cardiovascular risk factors prevents and slows down age-related cognitive disorders. The impact of antihypertensive therapy on cognitive outcome in patients with hypertension was assessed in large trials which demonstrated a reduction in progression of MRI white matter hyperintensities, in cognitive decline and in incidence of dementia. Large-scale database correlated statin use and reduction in the incidence of dementia, mainly in patients with documented atherosclerosis, but clinical trials failed to reach similar conclusions. Whether a multitargeted intervention would substantially improve protection, quality of life, and reduce medical cost expenditures in patients with lower risk profile has not been ascertained. This would require appropriately designed trials targeting large populations and focusing on cognitive decline as a primary outcome endpoint.

  11. Factors associated with the decline in suicide by pesticide poisoning in Taiwan: a time trend analysis, 1987-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shu-Sen; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Eddleston, Michael; Konradsen, Flemming; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Lin, Jin-Jia; Gunnell, David

    2012-07-01

    Pesticide self-poisoning accounts for one-third of suicides worldwide, but few studies have investigated the national epidemiology of pesticide suicide in countries where it is a commonly used method. We investigated trends in pesticide suicide, and factors associated with such trends, in Taiwan, a rapidly developing East Asian country. We conducted an ecological study using graphical approaches and Spearman's correlation coefficients to examine trends in pesticide suicide (1987-2010) in Taiwan in relation to pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticides, the proportion of the workforce involved in agriculture and unemployment. We compared pesticide products banned by the Taiwanese government with products that remained on the market and pesticides that accounted for the most poisoning deaths in Taiwan. Age-standardised rates of pesticide suicide showed a 67% reduction from 7.7 per 100,000 (42% of all suicides) in 1987 to 2.5 per 100,000 (12% of all suicides) in 2010, in contrast to a 69% increase in suicide rates by other methods. Pesticide poisoning was the most commonly used method of suicide in 1987 but had become the third most common method by 2010. The reduction was paralleled by a 66% fall in the workforce involved in agriculture but there was no strong evidence for its association with trends in pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticide products or unemployment. The bans mostly post-dated the decline in pesticide suicides; furthermore, they did not include products (e.g. paraquat) that accounted for most deaths and were mainly restricted to selected high-strength formulated products whilst their equivalent low-strength products were not banned. Access to pesticides, indicated by the size of agricultural workforce, appears to influence trends in pesticide suicide in Taiwan. Targeted bans on pesticides should focus on those products that account for most deaths.

  12. Analysis of the spatial distribution of infant mortality by cause of death in Austria in 1984 to 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heinzl Harald

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Austria, over the last 20 years infant mortality declined from 11.2 per 1,000 life births (1985 to 4.7 per 1,000 in1997 but remained rather constant since then. In addition to this time trend we already reported a non-random spatial distribution of infant mortality rates in a recent study covering the time period 1984 to 2002. This present study includes four additional years and now covers about 1.9 million individual birth certificates. It aimes to elucidate the observed non-random spatial distribution in more detail. We split up infant mortality into six groups according to the underlying cause of death. The underlying spatial distribution of standardized mortality ratios (SMR is estimated by univariate models as well as by two models incorporating all six groups simultaneously. Results We observe strong correlations between the individual spatial patterns of SMR's except for "Sudden Infant Death Syndrome" and to some extent for "Peripartal Problems". The spatial distribution of SMR's is non-random with an area of decreased risk in the South-East of Austria. The group "Sudden Infant Death Syndrome" clearly and the group "Peripartal Problems" slightly show deviations from the common pattern. When comparing univariate and multivariate SMR estimates we observe that the resulting spatial distributions are very similar. Conclusion We observe different non-random spatial distributions of infant mortality rates when grouped by cause of death. The models applied were based on individual data thereby avoiding ecological regression bias. The estimated spatial distributions do not substantially depend on the employed estimation method. The observed non-random spatial patterns of Austrian infant mortality remain to appear ambiguous.

  13. Analysis of birth-death fluid queues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, Erik A.; Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.

    1996-01-01

    We present a survey of techniques for analysing the performance of a reservoir which receives and releases fluid at rates which are determined by the state of a background birth-death process. The reservoir is assumed to be infinitely large, but the state space of the modulating birth-death process

  14. [The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhein, E

    1994-08-25

    The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

  15. Mortality rate of gastric cancer in the population of Belgrade for 1990-2002 period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šipetić Sandra B.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Worldwide, gastric cancer is the fourth leading cause of diseases, and the second leading cause of cancer deaths. Aim. To analyze the differences between men and women in mortality rate of gastric cancer in Belgrade from 1990−2002. Methods. Mortality rates standardized directly to the „World population“, and regression analysis were used. Results. In Belgrade population, 29.2% out the total number of deaths attributable to cancer were caused by gastric cancer. Gastric cancer was the second most common cause of death among digestive tract cancers. In women, in the period between 1990 and 1993, an average annual decline of mortality was 9.0% (95% confidence interval (CI = 5.9−13.1, and between 1994 and 2002, an average annual increase was 10.3% (CI = 8.4−12.6. Mortality rate series of gastric cancer in men did not fit any of the usual trend functions. The male/female gastric cancer mortality ratio was 1.7 : 1. Mortality rates for gastric cancer rose with age in both sexes and they were highest in the age group of 70 and more years. From 1990−2002, in both sexes aged 70 years and more, mortality from gastric cancer rose by 67.2% (CI = 58.0−76.4 in men and by 69.6% (CI = 60.6−78.6 in women. During the same period, the death rates in men decreased by 75.9 % (CI = 67.5−84.4 in the age group of 30−39 years, and by 48.1% (CI = 38.4−57.9 in women aged 50−59 years. In both sexes mortality rate series of all other age groups did not fit any of the usual trend functions. Conclusions. The increase in mortality rate of gastric in women over the past few years, showed the necessity of instituting primary and secondary preventive measures.

  16. Comparison of outcomes of kidney transplantation from donation after brain death, donation after circulatory death, and donation after brain death followed by circulatory death donors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guodong; Wang, Chang; Ko, Dicken Shiu-Chung; Qiu, Jiang; Yuan, Xiaopeng; Han, Ming; Wang, Changxi; He, Xiaoshun; Chen, Lizhong

    2017-11-01

    There are three categories of deceased donors of kidney transplantation in China, donation after brain death (DBD), donation after circulatory death (DCD), and donation after brain death followed by circulatory death (DBCD) donors. The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of kidney transplantation from these three categories of deceased donors. We retrospectively reviewed 469 recipients who received deceased kidney transplantation in our hospital from February 2007 to June 2015. The recipients were divided into three groups according to the source of their donor kidneys: DBD, DCD, or DBCD. The primary endpoints were delayed graft function (DGF), graft loss, and patient death. The warm ischemia time was much longer in DCD group compared to DBCD group (18.4 minutes vs 12.9 minutes, P < .001). DGF rate was higher in DCD group than in DBD and DBCD groups (22.5% vs 10.2% and 13.8%, respectively, P = .021). Urinary leakage was much higher in DCD group (P = .049). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that 1-, 2-, and 3-year patient survivals were all comparable among the three groups. DBCD kidney transplantation has lower incidences of DGF and urinary leakage than DCD kidney transplant. However, the overall patient and graft survival were comparable among DBD, DCD, and DBCD kidney transplantation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Association Between Brain Gene Expression, DNA Methylation, and Alteration of Ex Vivo Magnetic Resonance Imaging Transverse Relaxation in Late-Life Cognitive Decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lei; Dawe, Robert J; Boyle, Patricia A; Gaiteri, Chris; Yang, Jingyun; Buchman, Aron S; Schneider, Julie A; Arfanakis, Konstantinos; De Jager, Philip L; Bennett, David A

    2017-12-01

    Alteration of ex vivo magnetic resonance imaging transverse relaxation is associated with late-life cognitive decline even after controlling for common neuropathologic conditions. However, the underlying neurobiology of this association is unknown. To investigate the association between brain gene expression, DNA methylation, and alteration of magnetic resonance imaging transverse relaxation in late-life cognitive decline. Data came from 2 community-based longitudinal cohort studies of aging and dementia, the Religious Orders Study, which began in 1993, and the Rush Memory and Aging Project, which began in 1997. All participants agreed to undergo annual clinical evaluations and to donate their brains after death. By October 24, 2016, a total of 1358 individuals had died and had brain autopsies that were approved by board-certified neuropathologists. Of those, 552 had undergone ex vivo imaging. The gene expression analysis was limited to 174 individuals with both imaging and brain RNA sequencing data. The DNA methylation analysis was limited to 225 individuals with both imaging and brain methylation data. Maps of ex vivo magnetic resonance imaging transverse relaxation were generated using fast spin echo imaging. The target was a composite measure of the transverse relaxation rate (R2) that was associated with cognitive decline after controlling for common neuropathologic conditions. Next-generation RNA sequencing and DNA methylation data were generated using frozen tissue from the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Genome-wide association analysis was used to investigate gene expression and, separately, DNA methylation for signals associated with the R2 measure. Of the 552 individuals with ex vivo imaging data, 394 were women and 158 were men, and the mean (SD) age at death was 90.4 (6.0) years. Four co-expressed genes (PADI2 [Ensembl ENSG00000117115], ZNF385A [Ensembl ENSG00000161642], PSD2 [Ensembl ENSG00000146005], and A2ML1 [Ensembl ENSG00000166535]) were

  18. Tuberculosis mortality trends in cuba, 1998 to 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Edilberto; Risco, Grisel E; Borroto, Susana; Perna, Abel; Armas, Luisa

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of illness and death throughout the world. The World Health Organization's Global Plan to Stop TB 2006-2015 proposes that countries cut TB mortality by half compared to 1990 rates. In Cuba, TB mortality declined steadily throughout the 20th century, particularly after 1960. Objective Describe TB mortality distribution and trends in Cuba from January 1998 to December 2007 by infection site, sex, age and province, and determine progress towards the WHO's 2015 target for TB mortality reduction. Methods A time series ecological study was conducted. Death certificates stating TB as cause of death were obtained from the Ministry of Public Health's National Statistics Division, and population data by age group, sex, and province were obtained from the National Statistics Bureau. Crude and specific death rate trends and variation were analyzed. Results TB mortality declined from 0.4 per 100,000 population in 1998 to 0.2 (under half the 1990 rate) in 2007. Clinical forms of the disease, both pulmonary and extrapulmonary, also declined. The highest mortality rates were found in males and in the group aged ≥ 65 years. Rates were also highest in the capital, Havana, with extreme values of 0.73 and 0.39 per 100,000 population at the beginning and end of the period, respectively. Conclusions Deaths from TB declined steadily compared to total deaths and deaths caused by infectious diseases. The Global Plan to Stop TB target was met well ahead of 2015. If this trend continues, TB is likely to become an exceptional cause of death in Cuba.

  19. Current asthma deaths among adults in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsugio Nakazawa

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent asthma deaths were examined from yearly reports of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan and from reports published by the Japan Asthma Death Investigation Committee on 811 deaths over the period 1992–2000. The rate and number of recent asthma deaths in Japan have been decreasing rapidly. Most asthma deaths were of patients aged 70–90 years and there has been a marked trend for increased asthma deaths in the elderly. As for the circumstances surrounding the deaths, sudden death, unstable sudden aggravation and intermittent aggravation were mainly noted. Respiratory infections, fatigue and stress were the major courses of fatal attacks contributing to deaths due to asthma. Many of the patients who died from asthma had been diagnosed as having as moderate to severe asthma and many had non-atopic asthma. There are some reports that suggest that the recent decrease in asthma deaths in Japan is correlated with the use of inhaled cortico- steroids.

  20. The rate of cognitive decline in Parkinson disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarsland, Dag; Andersen, Kjeld; Larsen, Jan Petter

    2004-01-01

    To measure the rate and predictors of change on the Mini-Mental State Examination in patients with Parkinson disease (PD) and to compare that change with the Mini-Mental State Examination changes of patients with Alzheimer disease and nondemented subjects.......To measure the rate and predictors of change on the Mini-Mental State Examination in patients with Parkinson disease (PD) and to compare that change with the Mini-Mental State Examination changes of patients with Alzheimer disease and nondemented subjects....

  1. The impact of migration on deaths and hospital admissions from work-related injuries in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Alison; Peters, Susan; Felipe, Nieves; Lenguerrand, Erik; Harding, Seeromanie

    2016-02-01

    The shift from an industrial to a service-based economy has seen a decline in work-related injuries (WRIs) and mortality. How this relates to migrant workers, who traditionally held high-risk jobs is unknown. This study examined deaths and hospital admissions from WRI, among foreign and Australian-born workers. Tabulated population data from the 1991 to 2011 censuses, national deaths 1991-2002 and hospital admission for 2001-10. Direct age standardised mortality and hospital admission rates (DSRs) and rate ratios (RRs) were derived to examine differences in work-related mortality/hospital admissions by gender, country of birth, employment skill level and years of residence in Australia. DSRs and RRs were generally lower or no different between Australian and foreign-born workers. Among men, mortality DSRs were lower for nine of 16 country of birth groups, and hospital admissions DSRs for 14 groups. An exception was New Zealand-born men, with 9% (95%CI 9-13) excess mortality and 24% (95%CI 22-26) excess hospital admissions. Four decades ago, foreign-born workers were generally at higher risk of WRI than Australian-born. This pattern has reversed. The local-born comprise 75% of the population and a pro-active approach to health and safety regulation could achieve large benefits. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

  2. Cause of neonatal deaths in Northern Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayelom Gebrekirstos Mengesha

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the significant reduction in childhood mortality, neonatal mortality has shown little or no concomitant decline worldwide. The dilemma arises in that the lack of documentation of cause of death in developing countries, where registration of vital events is virtually nonexistent. Understanding of the causes of death in neonates is important to guide public health interventions. The present study identifies the common causes of neonatal death in Ethiopia. Methods A prospective cohort study was conducted among neonates born between April 2014 and July 2014 in seven hospitals, in Tigray region, Ethiopia. Mothers were interviewed by midwifes respecting risk factors and infant survival. For neonates who died in hospital, causes of death were extracted from medical records, whereas a verbal autopsy method provided presumptive assignment of cause of death for those infants who died at home. Results Of the1152 live births, there were 68 deaths (63 per 1000 live births. Two thirds of deaths were attributable to prematurity 23 (34% or asphyxia 21 (31%. Slight variance was seen between the morality patterns in early and late neonatal periods. In the early neonatal period, 37% were due to prematurity, while asphyxia (35% was more common in the late neonatal period. All infection-related deaths occurred in neonate-mother dyads from rural areas. Conclusion Prematurity, asphyxia, and infections were the leading causes of neonatal deaths in Tigray region during the study period. Causes of deaths identified during early and late neonatal mortality differed, which clearly indicates the need for responsive and evidence-based interventions and policies.

  3. Profile of sudden death in an adult population (1999-2008).

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Downes, M R

    2010-06-01

    Sudden death is the sudden and unexpected death of an individual within 24 hours of symptom onset. The vast majority of these cases are found, at autopsy, to be due to underlying ischaemic cardiac disease. We retrospectively reviewed all adult post mortems performed at Beaumont Hospital over a decade (1999-2008). Our aim was to identify all sudden death cases (natural and accidental) and subclassify them according to age profile and organ system involved. We identified 1230 sudden death cases in the review period with 775 (63%) deaths attributable to ischaemic heart disease. The rate of sudden death remained constant over the decade with 663 (54%) deaths occurring in the first five years. Our negative autopsy rate was 2.8% corresponding to 35 cases. This is the first Irish study to retrospectively review all adult sudden deaths within a defined catchment area and analyse them as outlined above.

  4. What has driven the decline of infant mortality in Kenya in the 2000s?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demombynes, Gabriel; Trommlerová, Sofia Karina

    2016-05-01

    Substantial declines in early childhood mortality have taken place in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya's infant mortality rate fell by 7.6 percent per year between 2003 and 2008, the fastest rate of decline among the 20 countries in the region for which recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data are available. The average rate of decline across all 20 countries was 3.6 percent per year. Among the possible causes of the observed decline in Kenya is a large-scale campaign to distribute insecticide-treated bednets (ITN) which started in 2004. A Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition using DHS data shows that the increased ownership of bednets in endemic malaria zones explains 79 percent of the decline in infant mortality. Although the Oaxaca-Blinder method cannot identify causal effects, given the wide evidence basis showing that ITN usage can reduce malaria prevalence and the huge surge in ITN ownership in Kenya, it is likely that the decomposition results reflect at least in part a causal effect. The widespread ownership of ITNs in areas of Kenya where malaria is rare suggests that better targeting of ITN provision could improve the cost-effectiveness of such programs. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. The decline in Australian young male suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrell, Stephen; Page, Andrew N; Taylor, Richard J

    2007-02-01

    Since the late 1990s there has been a sharp downward trend in Australian young male suicide. It is possible that a major government youth suicide prevention initiative, the National Youth Suicide Prevention Strategy (NYSPS), implemented during 1995-1999 may have influenced the decline. In this article, we examine time trends in age- and means-specific male and female Australian suicide rates in relation to unemployment rates and the NYSPS. Based on Australian suicide data over the period 1966-2003, we assess secular changes in the 20-24 year male suicide to total (crude) male suicide rate ratio in relation to the NYSPS, using interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA), since this was previously found to be significantly associated with the 20-24 year male unemployment to total employment ratio. Results show that a dramatic reduction in Australian young male (aged 20-34 years) suicide has occurred since 1997-1998, declining from approximately 40 per 100,000 in 1997-1998 to approximately 20 per 100,000 in 2003. Most of the decline is due to a decrease in suicide by hanging and to a lesser extent from motor vehicle carbon monoxide and other gases. Further, the previously established strong secular association (lasting over 3 decades from 1966) between the rate ratio of 20-24 year male suicide to total (crude) male suicide, and the rate ratio of 20-24 year male unemployment to total unemployment, appears to have been disrupted. ARIMA modelling of the suicide ratio against the initiative indicates a highly significant statistical association between the NYSPS and the suicide ratio reduction but not between the NYSPS and the unemployment indicator trend, suggesting a break in the link between young male suicide and unemployment. The recent sudden turnaround in Australian young male suicide trends and its extent appears to preclude explanations centring on slow-moving social indices traditionally associated with suicide, or on possible cohort effects. This sudden decrease

  6. Does the structure of wood contribute to understanding the oaks decline phenomenon?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela Tulik

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Vascular cambium is a meristematic tissue which produces wood centriphugaly and phloem centripetaly. In the structure of wood and phloem, data concerning developmental processes taking place in the cambium is recorded. The history of the cambium is encoded in the dimensions, numbers and arrangements of the wood and phloem cells. For investigations, the wood is usually preferred because it is durable and such data could remain unchanged for centuries, whereas in the phloem due to distorted processes, it deranges after a few years. In broadleaves, the wood is composed of vessels, tracheids, fibers and parenchyma cells. The process of the wood formation consists of the cambial cell derivatives expansion, lignification of its walls and programmed cell death. Since the seventies of the nineteenth century, the process of declining oaks taking place in Europe on a regular basis has been observed. Oak decline is a complex process that involves interactions of both biotic and abiotic factors leading to increased trees mortality. The main goal of the studies is the examination of the structure of wood in declining oaks (Quercus robur L. in respect to physiological (conductive role of this tissue. It is known that on the level of the wood structure, water transport efficiency depends on the diameter of vessels - the main elements of the hydraulic conductivity system. Any reduction of the vessels lumen causes the reduction of the water transport to the organs of the trees body and, therefore, influences organisms survival rate. Anatomical analyses were carried out on wood samples (comprising all annual rings formed during the 30-40 years life of the analyzed trees collected at breast height from the main stem of healthy, weakened and dead oaks. The anatomical traits of the wood like as the width of the annual increments, the diameter and density of early wood vessels were measured. The results which are described in the paper by Tulik (2014 revealed that

  7. [Inequalities regarding death in the past].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, A; Houdaille, J

    1989-01-01

    Was mortality differentiated socio-economically in past centuries, as it is nowadays? The issue has been hotly debated. Certain demographers admitted that, periods of famine excepted, the death risk was evenly distributed among the ancient populations, regardless of wealth, instruction or social status. On the other hand, the research project currently carried out at the French National Institute of Demographic Studies is evidencing wide mortality social differentials in the 19th century. In Paris, male life expectancy at the age of 40 reached 29.7 years for the nobility and bourgeoisie, but decreased to 25.6 years among merchants and 23.7 years among workers and day-labourers. Generally speaking, regional differentials were less pronounced than socioeconomic differentials. Mortality decline was found among the elites: life expectancy at 40 of the Knights of the Holy Spirit, for instance, increased to 30.8 years in the 18th century, from 27.8 years in the 16th century. The same life expectancy today (at 40 years of age) reaches 35.7 years among French professionals. The main problem with this kind of research is how to identify and collect relevant information. The researchers make use here of marriage registers from the past century. These registers recorded not only particulars of the married couple but also those of their parents (occupation, age, and date of death, if any). This information allows the calculation of mortality rates (and life expectancy) of ancient birth cohorts in various occupational groups. The primary condition is that the registers have been well kept and soundly stored until now. This is the case in certain city halls: the 4th arrondissement of Paris (1860-1863), Ivry-sur-Seine (1817-1823)... etc...

  8. Declines in marathon performance: Sex differences in elite and recreational athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavorsky, Gerald S; Tomko, Kelly A; Smoliga, James M

    2017-01-01

    The first aim of this study was to determine the age group at which marathon performance declines in top male and female runners and to compare that to the runners of average ability. Another aim of this of this study was to examine the age-related yearly decline in marathon performance between age group winners and the average marathon finisher. Data from the New York (NYC), Boston, and Chicago marathons from 2001-2016 were analyzed. Age, sex, and location were used in multiple linear regression models to determine the rate of decline in marathon times. Winners of each age group were assessed in 5-year increments from 16 through 74 years old (n = 47 per age group). The fastest times were between 25-34 years old, with overall champion males at 28.3 years old, and overall champion females at 30.8 years old (p = 0.004). At 35 years of age up to 74 years of age, female age group winners had a faster yearly decline in marathon finishing times compared to male age group winners, irrespective of marathon location [women = (min:sec) 2:33 per year, n = 336; men = 2:06 per year, n = 373, p < 0.01]. The median times between each age group only slowed beginning at 50 years old, thereafter the decline was similar between both men and women (women = 2:36, n = 140; men = 2:57, n = 150, p = 0.11). The median times were fastest at Boston and similar between Chicago and NYC. In conclusion, the rate of decline at 35 years old up to 74 years old is roughly linear (adjusted r2 = 0.88, p < 0.001) with female age group winners demonstrating 27 s per year greater decline per year compared to male age group winners.

  9. Declines in marathon performance: Sex differences in elite and recreational athletes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald S Zavorsky

    Full Text Available The first aim of this study was to determine the age group at which marathon performance declines in top male and female runners and to compare that to the runners of average ability. Another aim of this of this study was to examine the age-related yearly decline in marathon performance between age group winners and the average marathon finisher. Data from the New York (NYC, Boston, and Chicago marathons from 2001-2016 were analyzed. Age, sex, and location were used in multiple linear regression models to determine the rate of decline in marathon times. Winners of each age group were assessed in 5-year increments from 16 through 74 years old (n = 47 per age group. The fastest times were between 25-34 years old, with overall champion males at 28.3 years old, and overall champion females at 30.8 years old (p = 0.004. At 35 years of age up to 74 years of age, female age group winners had a faster yearly decline in marathon finishing times compared to male age group winners, irrespective of marathon location [women = (min:sec 2:33 per year, n = 336; men = 2:06 per year, n = 373, p < 0.01]. The median times between each age group only slowed beginning at 50 years old, thereafter the decline was similar between both men and women (women = 2:36, n = 140; men = 2:57, n = 150, p = 0.11. The median times were fastest at Boston and similar between Chicago and NYC. In conclusion, the rate of decline at 35 years old up to 74 years old is roughly linear (adjusted r2 = 0.88, p < 0.001 with female age group winners demonstrating 27 s per year greater decline per year compared to male age group winners.

  10. Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimiter Philipov

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This chapter provides a detailed description of the fertility changes in Bulgaria during recent decades and discusses possible reasons and consequences. It also gives an overview of the steps that the government has undertaken to offset the considerable decline in fertility. Before the fall of communism, fertility trends in Bulgaria were stable and characterized by a nearly universal entry into parenthood, dominance of a two-child family model, an early start and early end of childbearing, stable mean ages at entry into childbearing and marriage, and low percentages of non-marital births. During the 1990s and in the first years of the new century, we observe a marked, rapid change in fertility behaviour. Together with the severe decline in overall fertility rates, demographic data reveal a significant postponement of entry into motherhood and marriage, a decline of the two-child family model, and an emergence of new family forms. Most research attributes these changes to the particular political and social situation in Bulgaria since 1989.

  11. Hypertension is associated with cognitive decline in elderly people at high risk for dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wysocki, Michael; Luo, Xiaodong; Schmeidler, James; Dahlman, Karen; Lesser, Gerson T; Grossman, Hillel; Haroutunian, Vahram; Beeri, Michal Schnaider

    2012-02-01

    Cardiovascular risk factors including hypertension (HTN) have been shown to increase the risk of Alzheimer disease. The current study investigated whether individuals with HTN are more susceptible to increased cognitive decline and whether the influence of HTN on cognitive decline varied as a function of dementia severity. A total of 224 nursing home and assisted living residents, with a mean age of 84.9 (±7.6) years, were assessed longitudinally with Mini Mental State Exams (MMSEs) and Clinical Dementia Ratings (CDR). Baseline dementia status was defined by the CDR score. As described in , MMSE scores in persons with HTN and questionable dementia (CDR = 0.5) declined significantly faster than nonhypertensive questionably demented persons. Hypertensive participants did not decline significantly faster than nonhypertensive participants in persons with intact cognition (CDR = 0) or frank dementia (CDR ≥ 1). These results suggest an increased risk of subsequent cognitive decline in hypertensive individuals who are especially vulnerable to developing dementia and raises the possibility that avoiding or controlling HTN might reduce the rate of cognitive decline in cognitively vulnerable individuals, potentially delaying their conversion to full-fledged dementia.

  12. Epidemiology of deaths due to traffic accidents in Kermanshah province (2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azam Malekifar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The increasing trend of traffic accidents is one of the most serious problems of public health. The aim of this paper was to investigate the fatal traffic accidents in Kermanshah province. Method: All research data required were obtained from Legal Medicine Organization and analyzed by Stata-11 software. Traffic statistics available on the Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization website were used to study the death rate per month and day according to traffic level on suburban highways. Results: The incidence rate of age-standardized deaths due to road traffic accidents was 26.1per 100,000 people, and the mean age of the dead was 39.98±21.60 years. The mortality rate was higher in men, those more than 40 years old, married, illiterate and self-employed. Considering the traffic rate on suburban roads, the highest death rate occurred in the warmest months of the year during the day. Furthermore, most deaths were due to collisions and the highest frequency of death was reported for the car occupants. In most cases, head injuries and head traumas were the final cause of death. A significant correlation was reported between the type of vehicle and the cause of death and how the accident occurred (P<0.05. Conclusion: The mortality rate due to traffic accidents in Kermanshah province is high. Surveillance over the suburban roads in hot seasons and male drivers is of particular importance.

  13. Analysis of birth-death fluid queues

    OpenAIRE

    van Doorn, Erik A.; Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.

    1996-01-01

    We present a survey of techniques for analysing the performance of a reservoir which receives and releases fluid at rates which are determined by the state of a background birth-death process. The reservoir is assumed to be infinitely large, but the state space of the modulating birth-death process may be finite or infinite.

  14. Alcohol taxation, economic recession, and mortality changes in five European countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreeva, Tatiana

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Since 2008 some mortality decline is observed in several European countries including Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine. We hypothesized that this decline could be caused by decreased alcohol use facilitated by both economic recession and alcohol taxation. This study aimed to check this hypothesis.METHODS: Besides the abovementioned countries which suffered from the economic recession and have increased alcohol excise taxes, we considered data from the WHO-Euro mortality database for Poland which did not suffer from GDP decline and Ireland which decreased alcohol excise in 2009. Both per capita GDP growth change (from -18% in Latvia to +2% in Poland and alcohol excise change (from -20% in Ireland to +60% in Ukraine compared to 2008 rates were considered as independent variables. The outcome was percentage of real mortality decline compared to 2009 extrapolation of 2000-2008 trends, which were built using linear regression separately for major groups of death causes earlier shown to have changed in 2009. Population groups aged 30-59 were considered as those whose mortality declined most.RESULTS: Ten percent increase in alcohol excise taxes was associated with 9.4% decline in respiratory mortality from expected rate, 5.7% decline in causes of death related to nervous system, 4.9% decline in external causes of death, 4.8% decline in circulatory system deaths, 3.5% decline in infectious diseases as causes of death. Cardiovascular mortality decline was marginally associated with measurements of economic crisis (0.7% decline per 1% GDP fall.DISCUSSION: During the economic recession, the portion of all-causes mortality that has declined is most likely alcohol-related. Death causes that have mostly declined during the recession are more strongly associated with alcohol taxation than with GDP fall. Cardiovascular deaths decline related to the economic crisis could have been related to diet changes including smaller proportion of fatty and

  15. Childhood deaths from external causes in Estonia, 2001–2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Väli, Marika; Lang, Katrin; Soonets, Ruth; Talumäe, Marika; Grjibovski, Andrej M

    2007-01-01

    Background In 2000, the overall rate of injury deaths in children aged 0–14 was 28.7 per 100000 in Estonia, which is more than 5 times higher than the corresponding rate in neighbouring Finland. This paper describes childhood injury mortality in Estonia by cause and age groups, and validates registration of these deaths in the Statistical Office of Estonia against the autopsy data. Methods The data on causes of all child deaths in Estonia in 2001–2005 were abstracted from the autopsy protocols at the Estonian Bureau of Forensic Medicine. Average annual mortality rates per 100,000 were calculated. Coverage (proportion of the reported injury deaths from the total number of injury deaths) and accuracy (proportion of correctly classified injury deaths) of the registration of causes of death in Statistical Office of Estonia were assessed by comparing the Statistical Office of Estonia data with the data from Estonian Bureau of Forensic Medicine. Results Average annual mortality from external causes in 0–14 years-old children in Estonia was 19.1 per 100,000. Asphyxia and transport accidents were the major killers followed by poisoning and suicides. Relative contribution of these causes varied greatly between age groups. Intent of death was unknown for more than 10% of injury deaths. Coverage and accuracy of registration of injury deaths by Statistical Office of Estonia were 91.5% and 95.3%, respectively. Conclusion Childhood mortality from injuries in Estonia is among the highest in the EU. The number of injury deaths in Statistical Office of Estonia is slightly underestimated mostly due to misclassification for deaths from diseases. Accuracy of the Statistical Office of Estonia data was high with some underestimation of intentional deaths. Moreover, high proportion of death with unknown intent suggests underestimation of intentional deaths. Reduction of injury deaths should be given a high priority in Estonia. More information on circumstances around death is

  16. Childhood deaths from external causes in Estonia, 2001–2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soonets Ruth

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2000, the overall rate of injury deaths in children aged 0–14 was 28.7 per 100000 in Estonia, which is more than 5 times higher than the corresponding rate in neighbouring Finland. This paper describes childhood injury mortality in Estonia by cause and age groups, and validates registration of these deaths in the Statistical Office of Estonia against the autopsy data. Methods The data on causes of all child deaths in Estonia in 2001–2005 were abstracted from the autopsy protocols at the Estonian Bureau of Forensic Medicine. Average annual mortality rates per 100,000 were calculated. Coverage (proportion of the reported injury deaths from the total number of injury deaths and accuracy (proportion of correctly classified injury deaths of the registration of causes of death in Statistical Office of Estonia were assessed by comparing the Statistical Office of Estonia data with the data from Estonian Bureau of Forensic Medicine. Results Average annual mortality from external causes in 0–14 years-old children in Estonia was 19.1 per 100,000. Asphyxia and transport accidents were the major killers followed by poisoning and suicides. Relative contribution of these causes varied greatly between age groups. Intent of death was unknown for more than 10% of injury deaths. Coverage and accuracy of registration of injury deaths by Statistical Office of Estonia were 91.5% and 95.3%, respectively. Conclusion Childhood mortality from injuries in Estonia is among the highest in the EU. The number of injury deaths in Statistical Office of Estonia is slightly underestimated mostly due to misclassification for deaths from diseases. Accuracy of the Statistical Office of Estonia data was high with some underestimation of intentional deaths. Moreover, high proportion of death with unknown intent suggests underestimation of intentional deaths. Reduction of injury deaths should be given a high priority in Estonia. More information on

  17. Effects of intracellular iron overload on cell death and identification of potent cell death inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Shenglin; Yu, Xiaonan; Ding, Haoxuan; Han, Jianan; Feng, Jie

    2018-06-11

    Iron overload causes many diseases, while the underlying etiologies of these diseases are unclear. Cell death processes including apoptosis, necroptosis, cyclophilin D-(CypD)-dependent necrosis and a recently described additional form of regulated cell death called ferroptosis, are dependent on iron or iron-dependent reactive oxygen species (ROS). However, whether the accumulation of intracellular iron itself induces ferroptosis or other forms of cell death is largely elusive. In present study, we study the role of intracellular iron overload itself-induced cell death mechanisms by using ferric ammonium citrate (FAC) and a membrane-permeable Ferric 8-hydroxyquinoline complex (Fe-8HQ) respectively. We show that FAC-induced intracellular iron overload causes ferroptosis. We also identify 3-phosphoinositide-dependent kinase 1 (PDK1) inhibitor GSK2334470 as a potent ferroptosis inhibitor. Whereas, Fe-8HQ-induced intracellular iron overload causes unregulated necrosis, but partially activates PARP-1 dependent parthanatos. Interestingly, we identify many phenolic compounds as potent inhibitors of Fe-8HQ-induced cell death. In conclusion, intracellular iron overload-induced cell death form might be dependent on the intracellular iron accumulation rate, newly identified cell death inhibitors in our study that target ferroptosis and unregulated oxidative cell death represent potential therapeutic strategies against iron overload related diseases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Opioid prescriptions for pain and epidemic of overdose death: can the dramatic reduction in anesthesia mortality serve as an example?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kissin I

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Igor Kissin Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA Abstract: The annual number of US deaths from prescription-opioid overdose quadrupled between 1999 and 2010 and in 2010 alone reached 16,651. Deaths from opioid overdose have now surpassed the historic death toll from another drug-related epidemic – anesthesia mortality. In 1954, Beecher and Todd published reliable data on anesthesia-related mortality in the US, estimating the annual number of deaths to be nearly 5,000. Presently anesthesia/anesthetics are reported as the underlying cause in approximately 34 deaths in the US annually. This spectacular decline in anesthesia-related mortality could serve as an example for attempts to curb the epidemic of opioid overdose death. The main reason that led to the dramatic decline in anesthesia-related mortality is the context in which anesthetics are used. It includes training of the anesthesia providers, the introduction of specific standards of patient safety, and anesthesia monitoring. I suggest that the introduction of a similar multifactorial proper context for the use of opioids in the treatment of chronic nonmalignant pain might be the same “game changer” it was for safety in anesthesia. Keywords: chronic pain, addiction, opioid-use disorder, treatment compliance, apprenticeship, metrics of opioid effectiveness, aberrant opioid-related behavior

  19. Increased use of antidepressants and decreasing suicide rates: a population-based study using Danish register data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erlangsen, Annette; Canudas-Romo, V.; Conwell, Yeates

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of the present study was to examine if the change in the suicide rate is associated with individuals' use of antidepressants as has been suggested by ecological studies. DESIGN: Decomposition of suicide rates by antidepressant treatment group. SETTING: Population......-based record linkage. PARTICIPANTS: All individuals aged 50 years and older living in Denmark between 1 January 1996 and 31 December 2000 (N = 2,100,808). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Suicide rates are calculated according to current antidepressant treatment status (no treatment, tricyclic antidepressants (TCA......), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI), other antidepressants). The change in the suicide rate during 1996-2000 was decomposed by treatment group. RESULTS: Only one in five older adults dying by suicide was in treatment at the time of death. Whereas the male suicide rate declined by 9.7 suicides per...

  20. Duration of unemployment and suicide in Australia over the period 1985-2006: an ecological investigation by sex and age during rising versus declining national unemployment rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner, Allison; Page, Andrew; LaMontagne, Anthony D

    2013-03-01

    The relationship between unemployment and suicide may be sensitive to demographic factors, national unemployment rates, and length of time without employment. This study investigated these factors in relation to suicide in Australia for the period 1985-2006, in an ecological study. The outcome variable was annual suicide rate by age group, sex and the eight states and territories over 22 years of observation (total observations=1760). The main predictor variable was the average duration of unemployment in the population, categorised into three time periods (4 weeks). Poisson regression models were used to investigate the relationship between duration of unemployment and suicide over the years 1985-2006 in a series of cross-sectional analyses. Interaction analyses indicated significant differences during periods of declining or increasing labour market opportunity and by age group. During periods of declining unemployment rates in the country, longer durations of unemployment were associated with higher male suicide rates. During periods of increasing unemployment in the country, longer unemployment duration was associated with lower male suicide rates. Effect modification was also apparent by age-group, with stronger associations between unemployment duration and male suicide evident in those aged 25-34 and 55-64, and weaker associations in those aged 15-24 and 44-54 years. Longer length of unemployment was not associated with an increase in female suicide rates. The labour market opportunities in Australia modified the effect of duration of unemployment on suicide, and the effect was more prominent in men and older age groups. This may reflect social norms and acceptability about unemployment, as well as life-stage influences associated with transitions into and out of the labour market.

  1. Glutathione in Cancer Cell Death

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortega, Angel L. [Department of Physiology, Faculty of Medicine and Odontology, University of Valencia, 17 Av. Blasco Ibanez, 46010 Valencia (Spain); Mena, Salvador [Green Molecular SL, Pol. Ind. La Coma-Parc Cientific, 46190 Paterna, Valencia (Spain); Estrela, Jose M., E-mail: jose.m.estrela@uv.es [Department of Physiology, Faculty of Medicine and Odontology, University of Valencia, 17 Av. Blasco Ibanez, 46010 Valencia (Spain)

    2011-03-11

    Glutathione (L-γ-glutamyl-L-cysteinyl-glycine; GSH) in cancer cells is particularly relevant in the regulation of carcinogenic mechanisms; sensitivity against cytotoxic drugs, ionizing radiations, and some cytokines; DNA synthesis; and cell proliferation and death. The intracellular thiol redox state (controlled by GSH) is one of the endogenous effectors involved in regulating the mitochondrial permeability transition pore complex and, in consequence, thiol oxidation can be a causal factor in the mitochondrion-based mechanism that leads to cell death. Nevertheless GSH depletion is a common feature not only of apoptosis but also of other types of cell death. Indeed rates of GSH synthesis and fluxes regulate its levels in cellular compartments, and potentially influence switches among different mechanisms of death. How changes in gene expression, post-translational modifications of proteins, and signaling cascades are implicated will be discussed. Furthermore, this review will finally analyze whether GSH depletion may facilitate cancer cell death under in vivo conditions, and how this can be applied to cancer therapy.

  2. Risk for Death among Children with Pneumonia, Afghanistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabihullah, Rahmani; Dhoubhadel, Bhim G; Rauf, Ferogh A; Shafiq, Sahab A; Suzuki, Motoi; Watanabe, Kiwao; Yoshida, Lay M; Yasunami, Michio; Zabihullah, Salihi; Parry, Christopher M; Mirwais, Rabi; Ariyoshi, Koya

    2017-08-01

    In Afghanistan, childhood deaths from pneumonia are high. Among 639 children at 1 hospital, the case-fatality rate was 12.1%, and 46.8% of pneumococcal serotypes detected were covered by the 13-valent vaccine. Most deaths occurred within 2 days of hospitalization; newborns and malnourished children were at risk. Vaccination could reduce pneumonia and deaths.

  3. The oil market in the 1980s -- a decade of decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shojai, S.; Katz, B.S.

    1992-01-01

    Part 1 of this volume presents a profile of the economic dislocations and hardships that resulted from the breakup of OPEC and non-OPEC nation oil exporters. The economies and economic plans of these nations were buffeted by the oil price decline. Slowed foreign exchange receipts, declining terms of trade, and fluctuating exchange rates all mitigated against oil suppliers. Part 2 investigates a range of oil importer responses to the economic ramifications of rising (1970s) and declining (1980s) oil prices. While the oil-importing Western nations adjusted to and benefited from the declining oil prices and oil suppliers bore the cost, there were also disparate economic effects on the developing world. Part 3 investigates the oil price decline fallout. The experiences of the 1980s permit an extended analysis of market conditions resulting from changes in the price of oil. Part 4 attempts to come to grips with the impact of price changes and future developments in the international world oil market

  4. Causes of Death among Children Aged 5 to 14 Years Old from 2008 to 2013 in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Kersa HDSS), Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedefo, Melkamu; Zelalem, Desalew; Eskinder, Biniyam; Assefa, Nega; Ashenafi, Wondimye; Baraki, Negga; Damena Tesfatsion, Melake; Oljira, Lemessa; Haile, Ashenafi

    2016-01-01

    The global burden of mortality among children is still very huge though its trend has started declining following the improvements in the living standard. It presents serious challenges to the well-being of children in many African countries. Today, Sub-Saharan Africa alone accounts for about 50% of global child mortality. The overall objective of this study was to determine the magnitude and distribution of causes of death among children aged 5 to 14 year olds in the population of Kersa HDSS using verbal autopsy method for the period 2008 to 2013. Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System(Kersa HDSS) was established in September 2007. The center consists of 10 rural and 2 urban kebeles which were selected randomly from 38 kebeles in the district. Thus this study was conducted in Kersa HDSS and data was taken from Kersa HDSS database. The study population included all children aged 5 to 14 years registered during the period of 2008 to 2013 in Kersa HDSS using age specific VA questionnaires. Data were extracted from SPSS database and analyzed using STATA. A total of 229 deaths were recorded over the period of six years with a crude death rate of 219.6 per 100,000 population of this age group over the study period. This death rate was 217.5 and 221.5 per 100,000 populations for females and males, respectively. 75% of deaths took place at home. The study identified severe malnutrition(33.9%), intestinal infectious diseases(13.8%) and acute lower respiratory infections(9.2%) to be the three most leading causes of death. In broad causes of death classification, injuries have been found to be the second most cause of death next to communicable diseases(56.3%) attributing to 13.1% of the total deaths. In specific causes of death classification severe malnutrition, intestinal infectious diseases and acute lower respiratory infections were the three leading causes of death where, in broad causes of death communicable diseases and injuries were among the leading

  5. Causes of Death among Children Aged 5 to 14 Years Old from 2008 to 2013 in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Kersa HDSS, Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melkamu Dedefo

    Full Text Available The global burden of mortality among children is still very huge though its trend has started declining following the improvements in the living standard. It presents serious challenges to the well-being of children in many African countries. Today, Sub-Saharan Africa alone accounts for about 50% of global child mortality. The overall objective of this study was to determine the magnitude and distribution of causes of death among children aged 5 to 14 year olds in the population of Kersa HDSS using verbal autopsy method for the period 2008 to 2013.Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System(Kersa HDSS was established in September 2007. The center consists of 10 rural and 2 urban kebeles which were selected randomly from 38 kebeles in the district. Thus this study was conducted in Kersa HDSS and data was taken from Kersa HDSS database. The study population included all children aged 5 to 14 years registered during the period of 2008 to 2013 in Kersa HDSS using age specific VA questionnaires. Data were extracted from SPSS database and analyzed using STATA.A total of 229 deaths were recorded over the period of six years with a crude death rate of 219.6 per 100,000 population of this age group over the study period. This death rate was 217.5 and 221.5 per 100,000 populations for females and males, respectively. 75% of deaths took place at home. The study identified severe malnutrition(33.9%, intestinal infectious diseases(13.8% and acute lower respiratory infections(9.2% to be the three most leading causes of death. In broad causes of death classification, injuries have been found to be the second most cause of death next to communicable diseases(56.3% attributing to 13.1% of the total deaths.In specific causes of death classification severe malnutrition, intestinal infectious diseases and acute lower respiratory infections were the three leading causes of death where, in broad causes of death communicable diseases and injuries were among the

  6. Earliest functional declines in Huntington disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beglinger, Leigh J.; O'Rourke, Justin J.F.; Wang, Chiachi; Langbehn, Douglas R.; Duff, Kevin; Paulsen, Jane S.

    2013-01-01

    We examined the gold standard for Huntington disease (HD) functional assessment, the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS), in a group of at-risk participants not yet diagnosed but who later phenoconverted to manifest HD. We also sought to determine which skill domains first weaken and the clinical correlates of declines. Using the UHDRS Total Functional Capacity (TFC) and Functional Assessment Scale (FAS), we examined participants from Huntington Study Group clinics who were not diagnosed at their baseline visit but were diagnosed at a later visit (N = 265). Occupational decline was the most common with 65.1% (TFC) and 55.6% (FAS) reporting some loss of ability to engage in their typical work. Inability to manage finances independently (TFC 49.2%, FAS 35.1%) and drive safely (FAS 33.5%) were also found. Functional decline was significantly predicted by motor, cognitive, and depressive symptoms. The UHDRS captured early functional losses in individuals with HD prior to formal diagnosis, however, fruitful areas for expanded assessment of early functional changes are performance at work, ability to manage finances, and driving. These are also important areas for clinical monitoring and treatment planning as up to 65% experienced loss in at least one area prior to diagnosis. PMID:20471695

  7. Precisely Tracking Childhood Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farag, Tamer H; Koplan, Jeffrey P; Breiman, Robert F; Madhi, Shabir A; Heaton, Penny M; Mundel, Trevor; Ordi, Jaume; Bassat, Quique; Menendez, Clara; Dowell, Scott F

    2017-07-01

    Little is known about the specific causes of neonatal and under-five childhood death in high-mortality geographic regions due to a lack of primary data and dependence on inaccurate tools, such as verbal autopsy. To meet the ambitious new Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 to eliminate preventable child mortality in every country, better approaches are needed to precisely determine specific causes of death so that prevention and treatment interventions can be strengthened and focused. Minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) is a technique that uses needle-based postmortem sampling, followed by advanced histopathology and microbiology to definitely determine cause of death. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is supporting a new surveillance system called the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance network, which will determine cause of death using MITS in combination with other information, and yield cause-specific population-based mortality rates, eventually in up to 12-15 sites in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, the Gates Foundation funding alone is not enough. We call on governments, other funders, and international stakeholders to expand the use of pathology-based cause of death determination to provide the information needed to end preventable childhood mortality.

  8. Interpreting Gas Production Decline Curves By Combining Geometry and Topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, R. P.; Hu, Q.

    2014-12-01

    Shale gas production forms an increasing fraction of domestic US energy supplies, but individual gas production wells show steep production declines. Better understanding of this production decline would allow better economic forecasting; better understanding of the reasons behind the decline would allow better production management. Yet despite these incentives, production declines curves remain poorly understood, and current analyses range from Arps' purely empirical equation to new sophisticated approaches requiring multiple unavailable parameters. Models often fail to capture salient features: for example, in log-log space many wells decline with an exponent markedly different from the -0.5 expected from diffusion, and often show a transition from one decline mode to another. We propose a new approach based on the assumption that the rate-limiting step is gas movement from the matrix to the induced fracture network. The matrix is represented as an assemblage of equivalent spheres (geometry), with low matrix pore connectivity (topology) that results in a distance-dependent accessible porosity profile given by percolation theory. The basic theory has just 2 parameters: the sphere size distribution (geometry), and the crossover distance (topology) that characterizes the porosity distribution. The theory is readily extended to include e.g. alternative geometries and bi-modal size distributions. Comparisons with historical data are promising.

  9. Interphase death of dividing cells. Kinetics of death of cultured Chinese hamster fibroblasts after irradiation with various doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kublik, L.N.; Veksler, A.M.; Ehjdus, L.Kh.

    1989-01-01

    In studying the kinetics of interphase death (ID) of cultured Chinese hamster cells after irradiation with doses of 100 to 800 Gy the authors showed an increase in the ID rate with increasing radiation dose; the presence of serum in the medium both during and after irradiation prevents the cell death

  10. Drug Poisoning Deaths according to Ethnicity in Utah

    OpenAIRE

    Merrill, Ray M.; Hedin, Riley J.; Fondario, Anna; Sloan, Arielle A.; Hanson, Carl L.

    2013-01-01

    This study characterizes drug-related deaths according to ethnicity in Utah during 2005–2010, based on data from the Utah Violent Death Reporting System (UTVDRS). Hispanics made up 12.1% (12.5% male and 11.7% female) of deaths. The most frequently identified drugs among decedents were opiates, then illicit drugs, benzodiazepines, over-the-counter medication, and antidepressants. Death rates for each drug were significantly greater in non-Hispanics than Hispanics. Most decedents used a combina...

  11. Is the Modern American Death Penalty a Fatal Lottery? Texas as a Conservative Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Phillips

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In Furman v. Georgia (1972, the Supreme Court was presented with data indicating that 15% to 20% of death-eligible defendants were actually sentenced to death. Based on such a negligible death sentence rate, some Justices concluded that the imposition of death was random and capricious—a fatal lottery. Later, the Court assumed in Gregg v. Georgia (1976 that guided discretion statutes would eliminate the constitutional infirmities identified in Furman: If state legislatures narrowed the pool of death-eligible defendants to the “worst of the worst” then most would be sentenced to death, eliminating numerical arbitrariness. However, recent research suggests that numerical arbitrariness remains, as the death sentence rate falls below the Furman threshold in California (11%, Connecticut (4%, and Colorado (less than 1%. The current research estimates the death sentence rate in Texas. Interestingly, Texas provides a conservative test. In contrast to most states, the Texas statute does not include broad aggravators that substantially enlarge the pool of death-eligible defendants and therefore depress the death sentence rate. Nonetheless, the death sentence rate in Texas during the period from 2006 to 2010 ranges from 3% to 6% (depending on assumptions made about the data. The same pattern holds true in the key counties that send the largest number of defendants to death row: Harris (Houston, Dallas (Dallas, Tarrant (Fort Worth and Arlington, and Bexar (San Antonio. Thus, the data suggest that Texas can be added to the list of states in which capital punishment is unconstitutional as administered. If the death sentence rate in Texas runs afoul of the Furman principle then the prognosis for other states is not encouraging.

  12. Tritium releases, birth defects and infant deaths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    The AECB has published a report 'Tritium releases from the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station and Birth Defects and Infant Mortality in Nearby Communities 1971-1988' (report number INFO-0401). This presents the results of a detailed analysis of deaths and birth defects occurring in infants born to mothers living in the area (25 Km radius) of the Pickering nuclear power plant, over an 18-year period. The analysis looked at the frequency of these defects and deaths in comparison to the general rate for Ontario, and also in relation to airborne and waterborne releases of tritium from the power plant. The overall conclusion was that the rates of infant death and birth defects were generally not higher in the study population than in all of Ontario. There was no prevalent relationship between these deaths and defects and tritium releases measured either at the power plant or by ground monitoring stations t some distance from the facility

  13. How the 2008 stock market crash and seasons affect total and cardiac deaths in Los Angeles County.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Bryan Glen; Pezzullo, John Christopher; McDonald, Scott Andrew; Poole, William Kenneth; Kloner, Robert Alan

    2012-05-15

    Various stressors trigger cardiac death. The objective was to investigate a possible relation between a stock market crash and cardiac death in a large population within the United States. We obtained daily stock market data (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index), death certificate data for daily deaths in Los Angeles County (LA), and annual LA population estimates for 2005 through 2008. The 4 years death rate curves (2005 through 2008) were averaged into a single curve to illustrate annual trends. Data were "deseasonalized" by subtracting from the daily observed value the average value for that day of year. There was marked seasonal variation in total and cardiac death rates. Even in the mild LA climate, death rates were higher in winter versus summer including total death (+17%), circulatory death (+24%), coronary heart disease death (+28%), and myocardial infarction death (+38%) rates (p stock market crash in October 2008 did not affect death rates in LA. Death rates remained at or below seasonal averages during the stock market crash. In conclusion, after correcting for seasonal variation, the stock market crash in October 2008 was not associated with an increase in total or cardiac death in LA. Annual coronary heart disease death rates continue to decrease. However, seasonal variation (specifically winter) remains a trigger for death and coronary heart disease death even in LA where winters are mild. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Government takes decline as nations diversify terms to attract investment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meurs, A.P. van; Seck, A.

    1997-01-01

    A new review of 324 fiscal systems in 159 countries indicates that the trend of declines in government take has continued during the last 2 years. An earlier OGJ article concluded that government take had declined considerably during the previous decade in response to an increased availability of acreage. The fiscal system rating is based on eight economic yardsticks. They are: rate of return; net present value per barrel; ability to absorb geological risk; attractiveness of incremental exploration investments; attractiveness of incremental development investments; government take; bonanza economics; and the degree of front-end loading of the fiscal system. Based on these criteria the fiscal systems are rated, based on a point system, from the most attractive (five star) terms to the least attractive (one star). Table 1 provides an overview of the rating and ranking of 50 of the most interesting fiscal systems. Figure 1 provides the government take and corporate take for the systems listed in Table 1, based on a weighted average of 12 fields. The paper discusses attractive, tough, and diversifying terms, and regional competition

  15. Suicide and unintentional poisoning mortality trends in the United States, 1987-2006: two unrelated phenomena?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frost James L

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Two counter trends in injury mortality have been separately reported in the US in recent times - a declining suicide rate and a rapidly rising unintentional poisoning mortality rate. Poisoning suicides are especially difficult to detect, and injury of undetermined intent is the underlying cause-of-death category most likely to reflect this difficulty. We compare suicide and poisoning mortality trends over two decades in a preliminary assessment of their independence and implications for suicide misclassification. Methods Description of overall and gender- and age-specific trends using national mortality data from WISQARS, the Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System, maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC. Subjects were the 936,633 residents dying in the 50 states and the District of Columbia between 1987 and 2006 whose underlying cause of death was classified as suicide, unintentional poisoning, or injury mortality of undetermined intent. Results The official US suicide rate declined 18% between 1987 and 2000, from 12.71 to 10.43 deaths per 100,000 population. It then increased to 11.15 deaths per 100,000 by 2006, a 7% rise. By contrast to these much smaller rate changes for suicide, the unintentional poisoning mortality rate rose more than fourfold between 1987 and 2006, from 2.19 to 9.22 deaths per 100,000. Only the population aged 65 years and older showed a sustained decline in the suicide rate over the entire observation period. Consistently highest in gender-age comparisons, the elderly male rate declined by 35%. The elderly female rate declined by 43%. Unlike rate trends for the non-elderly, both declines appeared independent of corresponding mortality trends for unintentional poisoning and poisoning of undetermined intent. The elderly also deviated from younger counterparts by having a smaller proportion of their injury deaths of undetermined intent classified as poisoning

  16. Age spectrometry of infant death rates as a probe of immunity: Identification of two peaks due to viral and bacterial diseases respectively

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrut, Sylvie; Richmond, Peter; Roehner, Bertrand M.

    2017-11-01

    After birth, setting up an effective immune system is a major challenge for all living organisms. In this paper we show that this process can be explored by using the age-specific infant death rate as a kind of sensor. This is made possible because, as shown by the authors in Berrut et al. (2016), between birth and a critical age tc, for all mammals the death rate decreases with age as a smooth hyperbolic function. For humans tc is equal to 10 years. It turns out that for some causes of deaths and specific ages the hyperbolic fall displays temporary spikes which, it is assumed, correspond to specific events in the organism's response to exogenous factors. One of these spikes occurs 10 days after birth and there is another at the age of 300 days. It is shown that the first spike is related to viral infections whereas the second is related to bacterial diseases. By going back to former time periods during which infant mortality was much higher than it is currently, one gets a magnified view of these peaks. They give us useful information about how an organism adapts to new conditions. Apart from the reaction to pathogens, the same methodology can be used to study the response to changes in other external conditions, e.g. temperature or oxygen level.

  17. Mortality rates and causes of death in children with epilepsy prescribed antiepileptic drugs: a retrospective cohort study using the UK General Practice Research Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackers, Ruth; Besag, Frank M C; Hughes, Elaine; Squier, Waney; Murray, Macey L; Wong, Ian C K

    2011-05-01

    Patients with epilepsy, including children, have an increased risk of mortality compared with the general population. Antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) were the most frequent class of drugs reported in a study looking at fatal suspected adverse drug reactions in children in the UK. The objective of the study was to identify cases and causes of death in a paediatric patient cohort prescribed AEDs with an associated epilepsy diagnosis. This was a retrospective cohort study supplemented with general practitioner-completed questionnaires, post-mortem reports and death certificates. The setting was UK primary care practices contributing to the General Practice Research Database. Participants were children and adolescents aged 0-18 years prescribed AEDs between 1993 and 2005. Causality assessment was undertaken by a consensus panel comprising paediatric specialists in neuropathology, neurology, neuropsychiatry, paediatric epilepsy, pharmacoepidemiology and pharmacy to determine crude mortality rate (CMR) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), and the likelihood of an association between AED(s) and the event of death. There were 6190 subjects in the cohort (contributing 26,890 person-years of data), of whom 151 died. Median age at death was 8.0 years. CMR was 56.2 per 10,000 person-years and the SMR was 22.4 (95% CI 18.9, 26.2). The majority of deceased subjects had severe underlying disorders. Death was attributable to epilepsy in 18 subjects; in 9 the cause of death was sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) [3.3 per 10 000 person-years (95% CI 1.5, 6.4)]. AEDs were probably (n = 2) or possibly (n = 3) associated causally with death in five subjects. Two status epilepticus deaths were associated causally with AED withdrawal. Children prescribed AEDs have an increased risk of mortality relative to the general population. Most of the deaths were in children with serious underlying disorders. A small number of SUDEP cases were identified. AEDs are not a major

  18. The contribution of charcoal burning to the rise and decline of suicides in Hong Kong from 1997-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, C K; Yip, Paul S F; Caine, Eric D

    2011-09-01

    There has been scant research exploring the relationship between choice of method (means) of self-inflicted death, and broader social or contextual factors. The recent emergence and growth of suicide using carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning charcoal in an enclosed space (hereafter, "charcoal burning") was related to an increase in the overall suicide rate in Hong Kong. The growth of this method coincided with changing economic conditions. This paper expands upon previous work to explore possible relationships further. This study aims to discern the role of charcoal burning in overall suicide rate transition during times of both economic recession and expansion, as captured in the unemployment rate of Hong Kong, and to examine whether there was evidence of an effect from means-substitution. Age and gender specific suicide rates in Hong Kong by suicide methods from 1997 to 2007 were calculated. To model the transition of suicide rate by different methods, Poisson regression analyses were employed. Charcoal burning constituted 18.3% of all suicides, 88% of which involved individuals drawn from the middle years (25-59) of life. During both periods of rising and declining unemployment, charcoal burning played an important role in the changing suicide rates, and this effect was most prominent among for those in their middle years. Means-substitution was found among the married women during the period of rate advancement (1997-2003). Compared to others, working-age adults preferentially selected carbon monoxide poisoning from charcoal burning.

  19. Trouble in the aquatic world: How wildlife professionals are battling amphibian declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Deanna H.; Chestnut, Tara E.

    2014-01-01

    A parasitic fungus, similar to the one that caused the extinction of numerous tropical frog and toad species, is killing salamanders in Europe. Scientists first identified the fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, in 2013 as the culprit behind the death of fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra) in the Netherlands (Martel et al. 2013) and are now exploring its potential impact to other species. Although the fungus, which kills the amphibians by infecting their skin, has not yet spread to the United States, researchers believe it’s only a matter of time before it does and, when that happens, the impact on salamander populations could be devastating (Martel et al. 2014).Reports of worldwide declines of amphibians began a quarter of a century ago (Blaustein & Wake 1990). Globally, some amphibian population declines occurred in the late 1950s and early 1960s, and declining trends continued in North America (Houlahan et al. 2000). In the earlier years, population declines were attributed primarily to overharvest due to unregulated supply of species such as the northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) for educational use (Dodd 2013). In later years, however, causes of declines were less evident. In 1989, herpetologists at the First World Congress of Herpetology traded alarming stories of losses across continents and in seemingly protected landscapes, making it clear that amphibian population declines were a “global phenomenon.” In response to these reports, in 1991, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) established the Declining Amphibian Populations Task Force to better understand the scale and scope of global amphibian declines. Unfortunately, the absence of long-term monitoring data and targeted studies made it difficult for the task force to compile information.Today, according to AmphibiaWeb.org, there are 7,342 amphibian species in the world — double the number since the first alerts of declines — making the situation

  20. Influence of water table decline on growth allocation and endogenous gibberellins in black cottonwood

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rood, S.B.; Zanewich, K.; Stefura, C. [Lethbridge Univ., Lethbridge, AB (Canada). Dept. of Biological Sciences; Mahoney, J.M. [Alberta Environmental Protection, Lethbridge, AB (Canada)

    2000-06-01

    Cottonwoods have shown an adaptation to the riparian zone by coordinating root elongation to maintain contact with the water table, whose depth varies with the elevation of the adjacent river. The rate of water decline on growth allocation and concentrations of endogenous gibberellins (GAs) in black cottonwood saplings were studied at the University of Lethbridge, Alberta. Water declines were achieved by using rhizopods, and root elongation approximately doubled in response whereas leaf area was reduced. At some point, a greater water decline rate led to water stress resulting in reduced growth, increased leaf diffusive resistance, decreased water potential, and leaf senescence and abscission. After extraction of endogenous GAs, they were purified and analysed by gas chromatography-selected ion monitoring with internal ({sup 2}H{sub 2})GA standards. The results showed that GAs were higher in shoot tips and sequentially lower in basal stems, root tips, leaves and upper roots. Noticeable relationships did not appear between GA concentration and growth allocation across the water decline treatments. Only GA{sub 8} showed a consistent reduction in plants experiencing water table decline. This research did not permit the authors to conclude whether endogenous GAs play a primary role in the regulation of root elongation in response to water table decline. 7 figs., 25 refs.

  1. A CLINICAL STUDY OF MATERNAL DEATHS DUE TO PPH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basavana Gowda

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: A study of maternal death conducted to evaluate various factors responsible for maternal deaths. To identify complications in pregnancy, a childbirth which result in maternal death, and to identify opportunities for preventive intervention and understand the events leading to death; so that improving maternal health and reducing maternal mortality rate significantly. To analyze the causes and epidemiological amounts maternal mortality e.g. age parity, socioeconomic status and literacy. In order to reduce maternal mortality and to implement safe motherhood program and complications of pregnancy and to find out safe motherhood program. METHODS: The data collected was a retrograde by a proforma containing particulars of the diseased, detailed history and relatives were interviewed for additional information. The data collected was analysed. RESULTS: Maternal mortality rate in our own institution is 200/ 100,000 live births. Among 30 maternal deaths, 56% deaths (17 were among low socio - economic status, groups 60% deaths among unbooked 53.5% deaths more along illiterates evidenced by direct and indirect deaths about 25% of deaths were preventable. CONCLUSION: Maternal mortality is a global problem, facing every country in the world. Target specific interventions are needed for specific population. Fifth millennium development goal (MDG is to reduce maternal mortality by 75% by the year 2015, worthwhile investment for every case provider, results that investing on mothers

  2. Rates of Very Preterm Birth in Europe and Neonatal Mortality Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Field, David John; Draper, Elizabeth S; Fenton, Alan

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the influence of variation in the rate of very preterm delivery on the reported rate of neonatal death in ten European regions. DESIGN: Comparison of 10 separate geographically defined European populations, from nine European countries, over a one year period (seven months......) a standardised rate of very preterm delivery and b) the existing death rate for babies born at this gestation in the individual region. This produced much greater homogeneity in terms of neonatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in the rate of very preterm delivery has a major influence on reported neonatal...

  3. General birth-death processes: probabilities, inference, and applications

    OpenAIRE

    Crawford, Forrest Wrenn

    2012-01-01

    A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. Each particle can give birth to another particle or die, and the rate of births and deaths at any given time depends on how many extant particles there are. Birth-death processes are popular modeling tools in evolution, population biology, genetics, epidemiology, and ecology. Despite the widespread interest in birth-death models, no efficient method exists to evaluate the fini...

  4. Lack of association between use of efavirenz and death from suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, Colette; Ryom, Lene; Monforte, Antonella d'Arminio

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: A recent meta-analysis of 4 RCTs showed an increased rate of suicidality events (suicidal ideation or attempted/completed suicide) associated with efavirenz (EFV) compared to other regimens, but only a trend towards a higher rate of completed/attempted suicides, as only 17 events...... occurred. We investigated the association between EFV use and completed suicide. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All D:A:D participants were followed from study entry to the first of death, last study visit or 1 February 2013. Deaths are centrally validated using cause of death methodology, which assigns underlying......, immediate and up to four contributing causes of death. Two endpoints were considered: 1) suicide or psychiatric disease as the underlying cause, and 2) suicide or psychiatric disease mentioned as an underlying, immediate or contributing cause of death (anywhere). Adjusted rate ratios were calculated using...

  5. Insights on dying, dementia and death certificates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandormael, Sofie; Meirschaert, Alexander; Steyaert, Jan; De Lepeleire, Jan

    2018-01-01

    For our master thesis in medicine, we aimed to determine how many deaths were caused by and with dementia in 2014 and we compared our results with figures from abroad. The mortality rates of 2014 in Flanders were used to determine the amount of deaths related to dementia. These figures are collected by Vlaams Agentschap Zorg & Gezondheid (VAZG) and coded per ICD-10 classification. Of all deaths in Flanders in 2014, 6.60% were caused by dementia and 4.29% were caused by another condition, while also suffering from dementia. Data from abroad are ambiguous. While working on our thesis about "death & dementia", we questioned the reliability of mortality statistics. Possible explanations could be; the complexity of completing death certificates correctly and the challenges involved in properly constructing a chain of causes of death. The accuracy of mortality data can be improved by training and redrafting death certificates.

  6. Long-term mortality and causes of death among hospitalized Swedish drug users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fugelstad, Anna; Annell, Anders; Ågren, Gunnar

    2014-06-01

    To study long-term mortality and causes of death in a cohort of drug users in relation to main type of drug use and HIV-status. A total of 1640 hospitalized drug users in Stockholm was followed up from 1985 to the end of 2007. The mortality was compared with the general Swedish population and hazard ratios (HR) for the main risk indicators were calculated. The causes of death were studied, using information from death certificates. 630 persons died during the observation period. The Standard Mortality Ratio (SMR) was 16.1 (males 13.8, females 18.5). The crude mortality rate was 2.0 % (males 2.2% and females 1.5%). The mortality rate was higher in heroin users than among amphetamine users, HR 1.96, controlled for age and other risk factors. The mortality rate among individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was high (4.9 %), HR 2.64, compared with HIV-negative individuals. Most of the deaths were from other causes than acquired immune deficiency syndrome. One-third of deaths (227) were caused by heroin intoxication. The number of deaths from HIV-related causes decreased after 1996, when highly active anti-retroviral therapy was introduced. In all, there were 92 HIV-related deaths. Deaths from natural causes increased during the observation period. The SMR was highest for cardiovascular and gastrointestinal diseases. The results indicate a correlation between amphetamine use and death from cerebral haemorrhage. A high proportion of natural deaths were alcohol-related. The death rate among illicit drug users was persistently high. Alcohol consumption was a contributing factor to premature death. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  7. The impact of migration on deaths and hospital admissions from work-related injuries in Australia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reid, Alison; Peters, Susan; Felipe, Nieves; Lenguerrand, Erik; Harding, Seeromanie

    Objective: The shift from an industrial to a service-based economy has seen a decline in work-related injuries (WRIs) and mortality. How this relates to migrant workers, who traditionally held high-risk jobs is unknown. This study examined deaths and hospital admissions from WRI, among foreign and

  8. Amphibian decline and extinction: what we know and what we need to learn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, James P

    2010-11-01

    For over 350 million yr, thousands of amphibian species have lived on Earth. Since the 1980s, amphibians have been disappearing at an alarming rate, in many cases quite suddenly. What is causing these declines and extinctions? In the modern era (post 1500) there are 6 leading causes of biodiversity loss in general, and all of these acting alone or together are responsible for modern amphibian declines: commercial use; introduced/exotic species that compete with, prey on, and parasitize native frogs and salamanders; land use change; contaminants; climate change; and infectious disease. The first 3 causes are historical in the sense that they have been operating for hundreds of years, although the rate of change due to each accelerated greatly after about the mid-20th century. Contaminants, climate change, and emerging infectious diseases are modern causes suspected of being responsible for the so-called 'enigmatic decline' of amphibians in protected areas. Introduced/exotic pathogens, land use change, and infectious disease are the 3 causes with a clear role in amphibian decline as well as extinction; thus far, the other 3 causes are only implicated in decline and not extinction. The present work is a review of the 6 causes with a focus on pathogens and suggested areas where new research is needed. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a chytrid fungus that is an emerging infectious disease causing amphibian population decline and species extinction. Historically, pathogens have not been seen as a major cause of extinction, but Bd is an exception, which is why it is such an interesting, important pathogen to understand. The late 20th and early 21st century global biodiversity loss is characterized as a sixth extinction event. Amphibians are a striking example of these losses as they disappear at a rate that greatly exceeds historical levels. Consequently, modern amphibian decline and extinction is a lens through which we can view the larger story of biodiversity

  9. Cause of death and potentially avoidable deaths in Australian adults with intellectual disability using retrospective linked data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trollor, Julian; Srasuebkul, Preeyaporn; Xu, Han; Howlett, Sophie

    2017-02-07

    To investigate mortality and its causes in adults over the age of 20 years with intellectual disability (ID). Retrospective population-based standardised mortality of the ID and Comparison cohorts. The ID cohort comprised 42 204 individuals who registered for disability services with ID as a primary or secondary diagnosis from 2005 to 2011 in New South Wales (NSW). The Comparison cohort was obtained from published deaths in NSW from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) from 2005 to 2011. We measured and compared Age Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR), Comparative Mortality Figure (CMF), years of productive life lost (YPLL) and proportion of deaths with potentially avoidable causes in an ID cohort with an NSW general population cohort. There were 19 362 adults in the ID cohort which experienced 732 (4%) deaths at a median age of 54 years. Age Standardised Mortality Rates increased with age for both cohorts. Overall comparative mortality figure was 1.3, but was substantially higher for the 20-44 (4.0) and 45-64 (2.3) age groups. YPLL was 137/1000 people in the ID cohort and 49 in the comparison cohort. Cause of death in ID cohort was dominated by respiratory, circulatory, neoplasm and nervous system. After recoding deaths previously attributed to the aetiology of the disability, 38% of deaths in the ID cohort and 17% in the comparison cohort were potentially avoidable. Adults with ID experience premature mortality and over-representation of potentially avoidable deaths. A national system of reporting of deaths in adults with ID is required. Inclusion in health policy and services development and in health promotion programmes is urgently required to address premature deaths and health inequalities for adults with ID. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  10. Modelling lamb carcase pH and temperature decline parameters: relationship to shear force and abattoir variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, David L; Holman, Benjamin W B; van de Ven, Remy J

    2015-02-01

    Carcase pH and temperature decline rates influence lamb tenderness; therefore pH decline parameters are beneficial when modelling tenderness. These include pH at temperature 18 °C (pH@Temp18), temperature when pH is 6 (Temp@pH6), and pH at 24 h post-mortem (pH24). This study aimed to establish a relationship between shear force (SF) as a proxy for tenderness and carcase pH decline parameters estimated using both linear and spline estimation models for the m. longissimus lumborum (LL). The study also compared abattoirs regarding their achievement of ideal pH decline, indicative of optimal tenderness. Based on SF measurements of LL and m. semimembranosus collected as part of the Information Nucleus slaughter programme (CRC for Sheep Industry Innovation) this study found significant relationships between tenderness and pH24LL, consistent across the meat cuts and ageing periods examined. Achievement of ideal pH decline was shown not to have significantly differed across abattoirs, although rates of pH decline varied significantly across years within abattoirs.

  11. The changing pattern and determinants of declining consanguinity in Jordan during 1990-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M Mazharul

    2018-03-01

    Consanguinity is a deep rooted cultural trait in Jordan. To examine the patterns and determinants of declining rates of consanguineous marriage in Jordan during 1990-2012 in the context of the changing pattern of socio-economic and demographic conditions. The data come from the 1990 and 2012 Jordan Population and Family Health Surveys (JPFHSs). A total of 6461 women in 1990 and 11,352 women in 2012 were successfully interviewed. Descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques were used for data analysis. Consanguinity was found to be widely practiced (35% in 2012) until recent times in Jordan. However, there has been a secular declining trend over the last few decades as the practice of consanguinity has declined from 56% in 1990 to 35% in 2012. Increasing age at marriage and female education, higher level of education of husbands, declining family size, increasing rate of urbanisation and female employment, exposure to mass media and higher economic status appeared as significant predictors of declining consanguinity in Jordan. The findings of this study support Goode's hypothesis of a decrease of consanguinity with modernisation. Although consanguinity is a deeply rooted cultural trend in Jordan, it is gradually losing ground due to modernisation and socio-demographic transition of the country.

  12. Decline in breast cancer mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Njor, Sisse Helle; Schwartz, Walter; Blichert-Toft, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: When estimating the decline in breast cancer mortality attributable to screening, the challenge is to provide valid comparison groups and to distinguish the screening effect from other effects. In Funen, Denmark, multidisciplinary breast cancer management teams started before screening...... was introduced; both activities came later in the rest of Denmark. Because Denmark had national protocols for breast cancer treatment, but hardly any opportunistic screening, Funen formed a "natural experiment", providing valid comparison groups and enabling the separation of the effect of screening from other...... factors. METHODS: Using Poisson regression we compared the observed breast cancer mortality rate in Funen after implementation of screening with the expected rate without screening. The latter was estimated from breast cancer mortality in the rest of Denmark controlled for historical differences between...

  13. Relationship between leukotriene-modifying agent prescriptions dispensed and rate of suicide deaths by county in the US

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schumock GT

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Glen T Schumock1, Robert D Gibbons2, Todd A Lee1,3,4,6, Min J Joo4, Robert J Valuck5, Leslie T Stayner61Center for Pharmacoeconomic Research, and Department of Pharmacy Practice, College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA; 2Center for Health Statistics, and Departments of Medicine and Health Studies, Pritzker School of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA; 3Center for Management of Complex Chronic Care, Hines VA Hospital, Hines, IL, USA; 4Section of Pulmonary, Critical Care, Sleep and Allergy, Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA; 5Department of Clinical Pharmacy, School of Pharmacy, University of Colorado, Aurora, CO, USA; 6Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USABackground: The US Food and Drug Administration has issued warnings about a potential link between leukotriene receptor-modifying agents (LTMA and suicide. These warnings are based on case reports and there is controversy about the association. While spontaneous reporting of suicide-related events attributed to LTMA has risen dramatically, these data may be biased by the warnings. The objective of this study was to explore the relationship between LTMA and suicide deaths using event data preceding the Food and Drug Administration warnings.Methods: We conducted a mixed-effects Poisson regression analysis of the association between LTMA prescriptions dispensed and suicide deaths at the county level. Counts of suicide deaths in each US county, stratified by race, age group, gender, and year were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics for the period January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2006. Counts of LTMA prescriptions dispensed in each US county were obtained from IMS Health Incorporated. The model estimated the overall suicide rate conditional on LTMA use, adjusted for age, gender, race, year

  14. Social desintegration and violent deaths in countries of the Soviet Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Daniel Bonaldi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper intents to show that deep social transformations that took place in the Soviet Union, between middle 80s and middle 90s during XXth. century, provoqued a significant increase in violent deaths rates (suicides, homicides and accidents. Our study follows a theoretical perspective based on Durkheim ideas , that try to explain variations in violent deaths rates analyzing changes in the intensity and nature of social relationships. The analysis of evolution of specific rates by region, sex and age allowed us to verify that groups more directly affected by social transformations were those that also presented the highest rates in the proportion of violent deaths

  15. Trends in young-adult mortality between the 1990s and the 2000s in urban and non-urban areas in Belgium: the role of a changing educational composition in overall mortality decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Grande, Hannelore; Vandenheede, Hadewijch; Deboosere, Patrick

    2014-11-01

    This study probes into the evolution in young-adult mortality according to urbanisation degree in Belgium and moves beyond mere description through decomposing mortality trends into changes in educational distribution and in overall mortality. As most of young-adult deaths are preventable and an enormous cost and loss to society, this study addresses a highly relevant public-health topic. Individual record-linked data between the Belgian censuses of 1991 and 2001 and register data on death and emigrations are used. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), directly standardized to the European Population of 2013 are calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI), as well as a decomposition measure to pinpoint the proportion mortality change attributable to differences in educational composition over time. The young-adult population consists of 2,458,637 19-34 year-olds in 1991, with 11,898 deaths in a five-year period, and is slightly smaller in 2001 with 2,174,368 young adults and 8138 deaths. Overall, there is a positive evolution towards lower young-adult mortality, with the strongest declines in men living in large urban areas (ASMR from 149.0 [CI 142.1-155.8] in 1991-1996 to 94.6 [88.9-100.3] in 2001-2006). Decomposition analysis shows that the decrease in male mortality in non-urban areas over time is largely due to changes in the educational composition, while mortality in urban areas mainly decreases because of a decline in overall mortality. In urban areas all educational groups have benefitted over time. This clearly demonstrates that living and growing up in an urban area does not always have to imply a health penalty, but can have health advantages as well. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Radiation exposure and risk of death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hongo, Syozo

    1979-01-01

    By using the risk factor given in ICRP publication 26 and an assumption of linear relationship between risk and dose, death rate and death number which correspond to radiation dose level and collective dose level of Japanese are estimated and they are compared with vital statistics of Japanese in 1975 to get out some ideas about radiation risk relative to the risks of everyday life. (author)

  17. Incarcerating Death: Mortality in U.S. State Correctional Facilities, 1985–1998

    OpenAIRE

    PATTERSON, EVELYN J.

    2010-01-01

    Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics and Census Bureau, I estimate death rates of working-age prisoners and nonprisoners by sex and race. Incarceration was more detrimental to females in comparison to their male counterparts in the period covered by this study. White male prisoners had higher death rates than white males who were not in prison. Black male prisoners, however, consistently exhibited lower death rates than black male nonprisoners did. Additionally, the findings ...

  18. Antiepileptic drugs and intrauterine death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomson, Torbjörn; Battino, Dina; Bonizzoni, Erminio

    2015-01-01

    ) after prenatal AED exposure. Using EURAP data, we prospectively monitored pregnancies exposed to the 6 most common AED monotherapies and to polytherapy. Intrauterine death (spontaneous abortion and stillbirth combined) was the primary endpoint. RESULTS: Of 7,055 pregnancies exposed to monotherapy...... with lamotrigine (n = 1,910), carbamazepine (n = 1,713), valproic acid (n = 1,171), levetiracetam (n = 324), oxcarbazepine (n = 262), or phenobarbital (n = 260), and to polytherapy (n = 1,415), 632 ended in intrauterine deaths (592 spontaneous abortions and 40 stillbirths). Rates of intrauterine death were similar...... that the risk was greater with polytherapy vs monotherapy (risk ratio [RR] 1.38; 95% CI 1.14-1.66), parental history of MCMs (RR 1.92; 1.20-3.07), maternal age (RR 1.06; 1.04-1.07), and number of previous intrauterine deaths (RR 1.09; 1.00-1.19). The risk was greater with early enrollment and decreased...

  19. Avoidable deaths in Greenland 1968-1985

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Juel, K

    1990-01-01

    and several showed an increasing time trend. The regional patterns were particularly clear for infectious diseases and accidents, which showed low mortality rates in the capital and other towns and high mortality rates in settlements and in the remote East Greenland, while mortality rates from suicides...... and political will of the society. A list of avoidable deaths is proposed for Greenland which includes, inter alia, meningitis, lung cancer, acute respiratory infections, suicides, boat accidents and alcohol related diseases and accidents. All were considerably more common in Greenland than in Denmark...... and alcohol related diseases were high in the capital and East Greenland and low in West Greenlandic settlements. It is concluded that further studies on preventable diseases and causes of death, in particular certain infectious diseases, accidents and suicides, are needed....

  20. Low and declining attack rates of imported typhoid fever in the Netherlands 1997-2014, in spite of a restricted vaccination policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryapranata, F S T; Prins, M; Sonder, G J B

    2016-12-01

    Typhoid fever mainly occurs in (sub) tropical regions where sanitary conditions remain poor. In other regions it occurs mainly among returning travelers or their direct contacts. The aim of this study was to evaluate the current Dutch guidelines for typhoid vaccination. Crude annual attack rates (AR) per 100,000 Dutch travelers were calculated during the period 1997 to 2014 by dividing the number of typhoid fever cases by the estimated total number of travelers to a specific country or region. Regions of exposure and possible risk factors were evaluated. During the study period 607 cases of typhoid fever were reported. Most cases were imported from Asia (60%). Almost half of the cases were ethnically related to typhoid risk regions and 37% were cases visiting friends and relatives. The overall ARs for travelers to all regions declined significantly. Countries with the highest ARs were India (29 per 100,000), Indonesia (8 per 100,000), and Morocco (10 per 100,000). There was a significant decline in ARs among travelers to popular travel destinations such as Morocco, Turkey, and Indonesia. ARs among travelers to intermediate-risk areas according to the Dutch guidelines such as Latin America or Sub-Saharan Africa remained very low, despite the restricted vaccination policy for these areas compared to many other guidelines. The overall AR of typhoid fever among travelers returning to the Netherlands is very low and has declined in the past 20 years. The Dutch vaccination policy not to vaccinate short-term travelers to Latin-America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Thailand and Malaysia seems to be justified, because the ARs for these destinations remain very low. These results suggest that further restriction of the Dutch vaccination policy is justified.

  1. Discrepant comorbidity between minority and white suicides: a national multiple cause-of-death analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stack Steven

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinician training deficits and a low and declining autopsy rate adversely impact the quality of death certificates in the United States. Self-report and records data for the general population indicate that proximate mental and physical health of minority suicides was at least as poor as that of white suicides. Methods This cross-sectional mortality study uses data from Multiple Cause-of-Death (MCOD public use files for 1999–2003 to describe and evaluate comorbidity among black, Hispanic, and white suicides. Unintentional injury decedents are the referent for multivariate analyses. Results One or more mentions of comorbid psychopathology are documented on the death certificates of 8% of white male suicides compared to 4% and 3% of black and Hispanic counterparts, respectively. Corresponding female figures are 10%, 8%, and 6%. Racial-ethnic discrepancies in the prevalence of comorbid physical disease are more attenuated. Cross-validation with National Violent Death Reporting System data reveals high relative underenumeration of comorbid depression/mood disorders and high relative overenumeration of schizophrenia on the death certificates of both minorities. In all three racial-ethnic groups, suicide is positively associated with depression/mood disorders [whites: adjusted odds ratio (AOR = 31.9, 95% CI = 29.80–34.13; blacks: AOR = 60.9, 95% CI = 42.80–86.63; Hispanics: AOR = 34.7, 95% CI = 23.36–51.62] and schizophrenia [whites: AOR = 2.4, 95% CI = 2.07–2.86; blacks: AOR = 4.2, 95% CI = 2.73–6.37; Hispanics: AOR = 4.1, 95% CI = 2.01–8.22]. Suicide is positively associated with cancer in whites [AOR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.69–1.93] and blacks [AOR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.36–2.48], but not with HIV or alcohol and other substance use disorders in any group under review. Conclusion The multivariate analyses indicate high consistency in predicting suicide-associated comorbidities across racial-ethnic groups using MCOD data

  2. Trends in causes of death among children under 5 in Bangladesh, 1993-2004: an exercise applying a standardized computer algorithm to assign causes of death using verbal autopsy data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walker Neff

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Trends in the causes of child mortality serve as important global health information to guide efforts to improve child survival. With child mortality declining in Bangladesh, the distribution of causes of death also changes. The three verbal autopsy (VA studies conducted with the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys provide a unique opportunity to study these changes in child causes of death. Methods To ensure comparability of these trends, we developed a standardized algorithm to assign causes of death using symptoms collected through the VA studies. The original algorithms applied were systematically reviewed and key differences in cause categorization, hierarchy, case definition, and the amount of data collected were compared to inform the development of the standardized algorithm. Based primarily on the 2004 cause categorization and hierarchy, the standardized algorithm guarantees comparability of the trends by only including symptom data commonly available across all three studies. Results Between 1993 and 2004, pneumonia remained the leading cause of death in Bangladesh, contributing to 24% to 33% of deaths among children under 5. The proportion of neonatal mortality increased significantly from 36% (uncertainty range [UR]: 31%-41% to 56% (49%-62% during the same period. The cause-specific mortality fractions due to birth asphyxia/birth injury and prematurity/low birth weight (LBW increased steadily, with both rising from 3% (2%-5% to 13% (10%-17% and 10% (7%-15%, respectively. The cause-specific mortality rates decreased significantly due to neonatal tetanus and several postneonatal causes (tetanus: from 7 [4-11] to 2 [0.4-4] per 1,000 live births (LB; pneumonia: from 26 [20-33] to 15 [11-20] per 1,000 LB; diarrhea: from 12 [8-17] to 4 [2-7] per 1,000 LB; measles: from 5 [2-8] to 0.2 [0-0.7] per 1,000 LB; injury: from 11 [7-17] to 3 [1-5] per 1,000 LB; and malnutrition: from 9 [6-13] to 5 [2-7]. Conclusions

  3. Predictors of sudden death and death from pump failure in congestive heart failure are different. Analysis of 24 h Holter monitoring, clinical variables, blood chemistry, exercise test and radionuclide angiography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, B K; Rasmussen, Verner; Hansen, J F

    1997-01-01

    Association class II and 44% in III. Total mortality after 1 year was 21%, after 2 years 32%. Of 60 deaths, 33% were sudden and 49% due to pump failure. Multivariate analyses identified totally different risk factors for sudden death: ventricular tachycardia, s-sodium ....6 mmol/l, s-potassium sudden death and for death from progressive pump failure........80 mmol/l, s-creatinine > 121 mumol/l, and maximal change in heart rate during exercise death from progressive pump failure: New York Heart Association class III + IV, delta heart rate over 24 h 7...

  4. Could Immigration Prevent Population Decline? The Demographic Prospects of Germany Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes Weber

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Germany has a record of more than 40 years of below-replacement fertility and annual death surplus. Hence, it is commonly accepted that Germany’s population will decline considerably in the coming decades. Recent increases in immigration may, however, challenge the official long-term demographic projections for Germany. This paper assesses the impact of a permanent higher-than-expected level of net immigration to Germany as in the past three years on the projections for population, age structure and ethnic makeup by mid-century.The paper adds a higher immigration variant to the Federal Statistical Office’s latest Coordinated Population Projection and two variants of a (a constant or (b decreasing fertility rate among migrant women. It can be shown that with permanent net migration as high as in recent years (around 300,000 per annum, Germany’s population would not significantly decrease in the coming decades but would rather remain at 80 million until 2050. On the other hand, the sharp rise in the old-age dependency ratio is only mildly weakened by increased immigration rates. This issue is therefore probably best addressed by other (or additional means. The increase in retirees will level off after 2035 in any case. The ethnic makeup of society would be affected to a greater degree than its age composition: The share of first- and second-generation immigrants among the total population is projected to rise to about 35 percent in this scenario (and to above 40 percent if the third generation is also counted.

  5. Analytical approaches to and interpretations of data on time, rate, and cause of death of mice exposed to external gamma irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grahn, D.; Sacher, G.A.; Lea, R.A.; Fry, R.J.M.; Rust, J.H.

    1978-01-01

    Young adult male and female mice of inbred strains, A, BALB/c, C57BL/6, and C57L, and B6CF 1 and F 2 hybrids were exposed to daily duration-of-life external 60 Co γ irradiation. Age at death was recorded, and most decedents were necropsied to ascertain occurrence of major types of tumors. Age- and cause-specific mortality or incidence rates were derived, and their regressions on age were fitted with polynomial equations by least-squares procedures. Age-specific and age-adjusted integrated lifetime risk in excess of the control population was expressed as the mortality ratio (irradiated/control). Linear and nonlinear functions and widely different life expectancies can be accommodated by this technique. These basic actuarial statistics provide a means for comparative analysis of dose-response functions, sex and genetic variables, relative vs. absolute risk, protraction or dose-rate factors, and major contributing causes of excess risk. They also provide a basis for extrapolation to man. As examples, life shortening in days per rad (4 days/100 rads accumulated) is generally independent of sex, genotype, and daily dose rate. The integrated average lifetime risk of death related to all tumors (0.025%/rad) is largely independent of sex, genotype and dose-rates <12 rads/day, despite the fact that tumor incidence varies by a factor of 2 to 3 among genotypes. At low exposure rates, tumor-related mortality accounts for 80% of the excess risk, and life shortening is a function only of accumulated dose, independent of dose rate below 12 rads/day. The radiobiological effectiveness for low daily exposure levels is less than that for single exposures by a factor of 5 to 10. Life shortening following low daily exposure rates is induced at the rate of .03 to .06 days/R for the mouse, which extrapolates to about 1 to 2 days/R for man

  6. The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2015-08-01

    Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  7. An examination of pregnancy- related deaths among adolescents

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    (SA) reports the current maternal mortality rate at 147.7 deaths per. 100 000 live ... decreased from 299 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2007 to 147.7 in 2013, SA ... The data were anonymised by Statistics SA before becoming available for ...

  8. Energy intensity decline implications for stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lightfoot, H.D.; Green, C.

    2002-01-01

    By calculating the amount of carbon-free energy required to stabilize the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at some level, such as 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 2100, the authors estimate the appropriate rate of world average annual energy intensity decline. The roles played by energy efficiency and long term sectoral changes like shifts in economic activity from high energy intensity sectors or industries to low energy intensity sectors or industries are distinguished. Advances in technology and better and improved procedures, as well as a broader adoption of more efficient technologies currently available are included in the improvements made in energy efficiency. The objective was, for the period 1990 to 2100 (110 years), to estimate the potential energy efficiency increase for world electricity generation. It is noted that electricity generation represents 38 per cent of world energy consumption in 1995, while transportation accounts for 19 per cent and residential, industrial and commercial uses account for 43 per cent. In 2100, it is expected that the overall average decline in energy intensity will be 40.1 per cent of that of 1990, according to the results obtained. Looked at from another perspective, it represents an average annual rate of energy intensity decline of 0.83 per cent for 110 years. Between 0.16 and 0.30 per cent could be added to the impact of sectoral changes on the average annual rate of decline in energy intensity, while 0.83 per cent would be attributable to improvements in energy efficiency, as shown by sensitivity analysis. 33 refs., 9 tabs., 1 fig

  9. Antioxidant supplementation decreases the cell death rate in the prostatic stromal tissue of long-term castrated rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Fartes

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of castration on cell death rate of the adult rat prostates and to evaluate the benefic action of alpha tocopherol supplementation to avoid apoptosis post-orchiectomy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Thirty male Wistar rats weighing 250-300g were divided into three groups: group I - they were subjected to bilateral orchiectomy and sacrificed eight weeks after the procedure; group II - subjected to bilateral orchiectomy and alpha-tocopherol supplementation for four weeks preceding the procedure; and group III - subjected to bilateral orchiectomy and alpha-tocopherol supplementation for four weeks preceding the procedure and for eight weeks afterwards. At the end of the experiment, the prostatectomy was performed in all rats. The presence of oxidative stress was determined by assaying the blood level of 8-isoprostane and the occurrence of apoptosis was evaluated by identification of active caspase-3 through immunohistochemical analysis. RESULTS: The statistic analysis of active caspase-3 showed that in the long-term castrated group the detection was higher than in groups were the alpha-tocopherol was supplemented (p=0.007. Analysis of 8-isoprostane levels showed higher concentrations of reactive oxygen species in group I compared to other groups (p<0.05. Groups II and III presented active caspase-3 lower than in group I (p<0.05. CONCLUSION: Our exploratory analyses demonstrate a method to study the aging process and its influence on oxidative stress of prostatic tissue and cells death rate. Based on our results we can suggest that alpha tocopherol supplementation can decrease the apoptotic process as well as the oxidative stress levels induced by androgen deprivation of the prostate gland.

  10. Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidlin, Kurt; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M; Spoerri, Adrian; Egger, Matthias; Zwahlen, Marcel

    2013-01-04

    Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates

  11. Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schmidlin Kurt

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC. Methods The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons and 2000 (7.3 million persons censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991–2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD, using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. Results SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4% - 17.9% in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75–84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between −1.4% and +1.8%. In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12% - 28% and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7% - 23% cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy

  12. Enigmatic declines in bird numbers in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador may be a consequence of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John G. Blake

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Bird populations have declined in many parts of the world but most of those declines can be attributed to effects of human activities (e.g., habitat fragmentation; declines in areas unaffected by human activities are not common. We have been sampling bird populations at an undisturbed site in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador annually since 2001 using a combination of mist nets and direct observations on two 100-ha plots. Bird numbers fluctuated on both plots during the first 8 years but did not show a consistent pattern of change. Since about 2008, numbers of birds on both plots have declined; capture rates in 2014 were ∼40% less than at the start of the study and observation rates were ∼50% less. Both understory and canopy species declined in abundance. Overall, insectivores showed the most pronounced declines but declines varied among trophic groups. The period from 2008 onward also was a period of stronger La Niña events which, at this study site, are associated with increased rainfall. The mechanism for the declines is not known but likely reflects a combination of reduced reproductive success coupled with reduced survival associated with changing climate.

  13. Effect of the First World War on suicide rates in Ireland: an investigation of the 1864-1921 suicide trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osman, Mugtaba; Parnell, Andrew C

    2015-10-01

    Since the proposition of the social integration theory by Émile Durkheim, macro-sociological changes have been speculated to affect suicide rates. This study investigates the effect of the First World War on Irish suicide rates. We applied an interrupted time series design of 1864-1921 annual Irish suicide rates. The 1864-1913 suicide rates exhibited a slow-rising trend with a sharp decline from the year 1914 onwards. The odds for death by suicide for males during the 1914-1918 period was 0.811 (95% CI 0.768-0.963). Irish rates of suicide were significantly reduced during the First World War, most notably for males. None. © 2015 The Royal College of Psychiatrists. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Non-Commercial, No Derivatives (CC BY-NC-ND) licence.

  14. Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Anderson, Kurt E; Regan, Tracey J; Regan, Helen M

    2018-01-22

    The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age-structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates

  15. Epidemiology of violent deaths in the world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reza, A; Mercy, J A; Krug, E

    2001-06-01

    This study describes epidemiologic patterns of mortality due to suicide, homicide, and war for the world in order to serve as a benchmark against which to measure future progress and to raise awareness about violence as a global public health problem. The world and its eight major regions. Data were derived from The Global Burden of Disease series and the US National Center for Health Statistics to estimate crude rates, age adjusted rates, sex rate ratios, and the health burden for suicide, homicide, and war related deaths for the world and its eight major regions in 1990. In 1990, an estimated 1,851,000 people died from violence (35.3 per 100,000) in the world. There were an estimated 786,000 suicides. Overall suicide rates ranged from 3.4 per 100,000 in Sub-Saharan Africa to 30.4 per 100,000 in China. There were an estimated 563,000 homicides. Overall homicide rates ranged from 1.0 per 100,000 in established market economies to 44.8 per 100,000 in Sub-Saharan Africa with peaks among males aged 15-24 years old, and among females aged 0-4 years old. There were an estimated 502,000 war related deaths with peaks in rates for both sexes among people aged 0-4, 15-29, and 60-69 years old. The number of violence related deaths in the world is unacceptably high. Coordinated prevention and control efforts are urgently needed.

  16. The Decline of the Autopsy in Rhode Island and Nationwide: Past Trends and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgartner, Alex; Anthony, Douglas

    2016-10-04

    The autopsy has long been a fundamental aspect of medical practice and research. However, in the last 50 years, the proportion of deaths for which an autopsy is performed has decreased dramatically. Here we examine some of the reasons for the decline of the autopsy, as well as several interventions that have been proposed to revive it. We also present autopsy utilization data from the Lifespan system, which mirrors nationwide trends. [Full article available at http://rimed.org/rimedicaljournal-2016-10.asp].

  17. Age- and time-dependent changes in the rates of radiation-induced cancers in patients with ankylosing spondylitis following a single course of X-ray treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, P.G.; Doll, R.

    1978-01-01

    The causes of death have been analysed in 14111 patients with ankylosing spondylitis following a single course of X-ray treatment. Patients who were re-treated with X-rays were followed until the end of the year following their second course of treatment and deaths subsequent to this time were ignored. An attempt was made to follow the remaining patients to 1 January 1970, or their date of death or emigration, whichever was the earlier. A total of 7455 (52.8%) patients were re-treated before 1 January 1970, 1759 (12.5%) patients had died and 269 (1.9%) had emigrated. A total of 208 (1.5%) patients were lost to follow-up and the remaining 4420 (31.3%), who had all received one course of treatment, were alive. The number of deaths from all causes was 66% greater than the expected number computed from national age and sex specific mortality rates. There were 31 deaths from leukaemia (6.5 expected), 259 from cancers of ''heavily irradiated'' sites (167.5 expected) and 79 from cancers of ''lightly irradiated'' sites, which was not significantly higher than the 65.6 expected. The ratio of observed to expected deaths and the excess death rate from leukaemia was greatest in the period three to five years after first treatment and subsequently declined. The ratio of observed to expected deaths from cancers of heavily irradiated sites was high in the two years following treatment, fell to a minimum six to eight years after treatment and then rose. Data for individual heavily irradiated sites showed little variation in the ratio of observed to expected numbers of deaths, apart from those due to tumours of the spinal cord. The ratio of observed to expected deaths for both leukaemia and cancers of the heavily irradiated sites showed no apparent change according to the age of the patients at their first treatment but the excess death rate showed a highly significant increase with increasing age at first treatment

  18. Births and deaths including fetal deaths

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Access to a variety of United States birth and death files including fetal deaths: Birth Files, 1968-2009; 1995-2005; Fetal death file, 1982-2005; Mortality files,...

  19. [Diagnostic efficiency of decline rate of signal intensity and apparent diffusion coefficient with different b values for differentiating benign and malignant breast lesions on diffusion-weighted 3.0T magnetic resonance imaging].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jing; Liu, Wanhua; Ye, Yuanyuan; Wang, Rui; Li, Fengfang; Peng, Chengyu

    2014-06-17

    To investigate the diagnostic efficiency of decline rate of signal intensity and apparent diffusion coefficient with different b values for differentiating benign and malignant breast lesions on diffusion-weighted 3.0 T magnetic resonance imaging. A total of 152 patients with 162 confirmed histopathologically breast lesions (85 malignant and 77 benign) underwent 3.0 T diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging. Four b values (0, 400, 800 and 1 000 s/mm²) were used. The signal intensity and ADC values of breast lesions were measured respectively. The signal intensity decline rate (SIDR) and apparent diffusion coefficient decline rate (ADCDR) were calculated respectively. SIDR = (signal intensity of lesions with low b value-signal intensity of lesions with high b value)/signal intensity of lesions with low b value, ADCDR = (ADC value of lesions with low b value-ADC value of lesions with high b value) /ADC value of lesions with low b value. The independent sample t-test was employed for statistical analyses and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for evaluating the diagnosis efficiency of SIDR and ADCDR values. Significant differences were observed in SIDR between benign and malignant breast lesions with b values of 0-400, 400-800 and 800-1 000 s/mm². The sensitivities of SIDR for differentiating benign and malignant breast lesions were 61.2%, 68.2% and 67.1%, the specificities 74.0%, 85.7% and 67.5%, the diagnosis accordance rates 67.3%, 76.5% and 67.3%, the positive predictive values 72.2%, 84.1% and 69.5% and the negative predictive values 63.3%, 71.0% and 65.0% respectively. Significant differences were observed in ADCDR between benign and malignant breast lesions with b values of 400-800 s/mm² and 800-1 000 s/mm². The sensitivities of SDR for differentiating benign and malignant breast lesions were 80.0% and 65.9%, the specificities 72.7% and 65.0%, the diagnostic accordance rates 76.5% and 65.4%, the positive predictive values 76.4% and 67

  20. Basal ganglia calcification as a putative cause for cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, João Ricardo Mendes; de Oliveira, Matheus Fernandes

    2013-01-01

    Basal ganglia calcifications (BGC) may be present in various medical conditions, such as infections, metabolic, psychiatric and neurological diseases, associated with different etiologies and clinical outcomes, including parkinsonism, psychosis, mood swings and dementia. A literature review was performed highlighting the main neuropsychological findings of BGC, with particular attention to clinical reports of cognitive decline. Neuroimaging studies combined with neuropsychological analysis show that some patients have shown progressive disturbances of selective attention, declarative memory and verbal perseveration. Therefore, the calcification process might represent a putative cause for dementia syndromes, suggesting a probable link among calcinosis, the aging process and eventually with neuronal death. The increasing number of reports available will foster a necessary discussion about cerebral calcinosis and its role in determining symptomatology in dementia patients.

  1. Staging Death, Translating Death, Rehearsing Death: A Photographer’s Apprenticeship in Dying

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Fargione

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The preponderance of death imagery in the mass media and a recent interest of photography in the practice of death suggest the need to reevaluate our approach to death and dying, especially when violence is involved. This essay is a case study of History of Violence, Claudio Cravero's last photographic project. His collection of "portraits" reproduce apparent dead bodies, mostly attacked in their own domestic spheres, but neither the perpetrator of death (a mysterious murderer?, nor the weapon used (an omnipresent knife, should be considered as main focal points of the artist's inquiry. The undoubtful protagonist of these photographs, instead, is the light, that illuminates fear: not of death itself, rather of the obnoxious indifference to it, as the result of generalized death imagery saturation.     The staged apparent death displayed in Cravero's photographs serve both as a memento mori and as a strategy to come to terms with the idea of death. In short, it is an apprentship in dying through a domesticating translation practice. Eventually, Cravero's History of Violence offers a complex reflection on the interplay between each individual story and macrolevel social History, thus providing some hypotheses of where violence and death fit in that odd geometry of time and space that we call life.

  2. Does climate change explain the decline of a trans-Saharan Afro-Palaearctic migrant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce-Higgins, J W; Yalden, D W; Dougall, T W; Beale, C M

    2009-03-01

    There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated

  3. Patterns of mortality rates in Darfur conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degomme, Olivier; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2010-01-23

    Several mortality estimates for the Darfur conflict have been reported since 2004, but few accounted for conflict dynamics such as changing displacement and causes of deaths. We analyse changes over time for crude and cause-specific mortality rates, and assess the effect of displacement on mortality rates. Retrospective mortality surveys were gathered from an online database. Quasi-Poisson models were used to assess mortality rates with place and period in which the survey was done, and the proportions of displaced people in the samples were the explanatory variables. Predicted mortality rates for five periods were computed and applied to population data taken from the UN's series about Darfur to obtain the number of deaths. 63 of 107 mortality surveys met all criteria for analysis. Our results show significant reductions in mortality rates from early 2004 to the end of 2008, although rates were higher during deployment of fewer humanitarian aid workers. In general, the reduction in rate was more important for violence-related than for diarrhoea-related mortality. Displacement correlated with increased rates of deaths associated with diarrhoea, but also with reduction in violent deaths. We estimated the excess number of deaths to be 298 271 (95% CI 178 258-461 520). Although violence was the main cause of death during 2004, diseases have been the cause of most deaths since 2005, with displaced populations being the most susceptible. Any reduction in humanitarian assistance could lead to worsening mortality rates, as was the case between mid 2006 and mid 2007. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Gender differences in age-related decline in regional cerebral glucose metabolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Seong Ae; Cho, Sang Soo; Yoon, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun Soo; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Sun

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we investigated gender differences in age-related declines in regional cerebral glucose metabolism using FDG-PET in a large population sample with a broad age range. 230 healthy subjects (90 male; age: 34-80 y, 140 females; age: 33-82 y) participated. Correlation maps showing age related declines in glucose uptake were created separately for each gender in SPM2. Using population-based probabilistic volume of interests (VOIs), VOIs were defined for the regions showing significant decline with aging. Age related declines were separately assessed within each age range using analysis of covariate in SPSS 13.0. In the total population without gender effect, age-related negative correlation of glucose metabolism was found in the bilateral inferior frontal gyri, bilateral caudate, bilateral thalamus, left insula, left superior frontal gyrus, left uncus, right superior temporal gyrus, right medial frontal gyrus, right parahippocampal gyrus, right anterior cingulate gyrus (P < 0.001 corrected, extent threshold k = 100). 14 VOIs values of brain regions were calculated based on this negative correlation results. The rate of decline across all defined VOIs assessed in the age category of 'more than 70' referenced to the category of '30- 39years' were 7.85% in the entire sample; 7.62% in male and 8.09% in female. Detailed analyses of declines in each age range showed separable patterns of declines across gender. In males, greater decline was observed after the age 60 (20.45%) than the ages of 30 and 50(7.98%). Whereas in females, greater declines were found in age 60s (20.15%) compared to 50s, and in 40(14.84%) compared to 30s. Age-related decline in cerebral glucose metabolism was found in both genders. We further observed that males show a relatively constant pattern of decline across a life span; whereas, females show a pattern of steep changes aging to 60s and to 40s, which may be related to changes in sex hormone levels after menopause

  5. Gender differences in age-related decline in regional cerebral glucose metabolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Seong Ae; Cho, Sang Soo; Yoon, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun Soo; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Sun [Seoul National Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    In this study, we investigated gender differences in age-related declines in regional cerebral glucose metabolism using FDG-PET in a large population sample with a broad age range. 230 healthy subjects (90 male; age: 34-80 y, 140 females; age: 33-82 y) participated. Correlation maps showing age related declines in glucose uptake were created separately for each gender in SPM2. Using population-based probabilistic volume of interests (VOIs), VOIs were defined for the regions showing significant decline with aging. Age related declines were separately assessed within each age range using analysis of covariate in SPSS 13.0. In the total population without gender effect, age-related negative correlation of glucose metabolism was found in the bilateral inferior frontal gyri, bilateral caudate, bilateral thalamus, left insula, left superior frontal gyrus, left uncus, right superior temporal gyrus, right medial frontal gyrus, right parahippocampal gyrus, right anterior cingulate gyrus (P < 0.001 corrected, extent threshold k = 100). 14 VOIs values of brain regions were calculated based on this negative correlation results. The rate of decline across all defined VOIs assessed in the age category of 'more than 70' referenced to the category of '30- 39years' were 7.85% in the entire sample; 7.62% in male and 8.09% in female. Detailed analyses of declines in each age range showed separable patterns of declines across gender. In males, greater decline was observed after the age 60 (20.45%) than the ages of 30 and 50(7.98%). Whereas in females, greater declines were found in age 60s (20.15%) compared to 50s, and in 40(14.84%) compared to 30s. Age-related decline in cerebral glucose metabolism was found in both genders. We further observed that males show a relatively constant pattern of decline across a life span; whereas, females show a pattern of steep changes aging to 60s and to 40s, which may be related to changes in sex hormone levels after menopause.

  6. On incomplete sampling under birth-death models and connections to the sampling-based coalescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stadler, Tanja

    2009-11-07

    The constant rate birth-death process is used as a stochastic model for many biological systems, for example phylogenies or disease transmission. As the biological data are usually not fully available, it is crucial to understand the effect of incomplete sampling. In this paper, we analyze the constant rate birth-death process with incomplete sampling. We derive the density of the bifurcation events for trees on n leaves which evolved under this birth-death-sampling process. This density is used for calculating prior distributions in Bayesian inference programs and for efficiently simulating trees. We show that the birth-death-sampling process can be interpreted as a birth-death process with reduced rates and complete sampling. This shows that joint inference of birth rate, death rate and sampling probability is not possible. The birth-death-sampling process is compared to the sampling-based population genetics model, the coalescent. It is shown that despite many similarities between these two models, the distribution of bifurcation times remains different even in the case of very large population sizes. We illustrate these findings on an Hepatitis C virus dataset from Egypt. We show that the transmission times estimates are significantly different-the widely used Gamma statistic even changes its sign from negative to positive when switching from the coalescent to the birth-death process.

  7. White ash (Fraxinus americana) decline and mortality: the role of site nutrition and stress history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alejandro A. Royo; Kathleen S. Knight

    2012-01-01

    Over the past century, white ash (Fraxinus americana) populations throughout its range have deteriorated as a result of declining tree health and increased mortality rates. Although co-occurring factors including site nutritional deficiencies and punctuated stress events (e.g., defoliations, drought) are hypothesized to trigger white ash decline,...

  8. The decline and revival of environmentally-related taxation in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikael Skou

    2013-01-01

    The EU Energy Taxation Directive's low minimum tax rate for diesel along with a general dieselisation of Europe's vehicle fleet explains why revenues from environmentally-related taxes gradually declined from 1999-2008. After the financial crisis environmentally-related taxation is resuming its...

  9. NFE2L2 pathway polymorphisms and lung function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandford, Andrew J; Malhotra, Deepti; Boezen, H Marike; Siedlinski, Mateusz; Postma, Dirkje S; Wong, Vivien; Akhabir, Loubna; He, Jian-Qing; Connett, John E; Anthonisen, Nicholas R; Paré, Peter D; Biswal, Shyam

    2012-08-01

    An oxidant-antioxidant imbalance in the lung contributes to the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) that is caused by a complex interaction of genetic and environmental risk factors. Nuclear erythroid 2-related factor 2 (NFE2L2 or NRF2) is a critical molecule in the lung's defense mechanism against oxidants. We investigated whether polymorphisms in the NFE2L2 pathway affected the rate of decline of lung function in smokers from the Lung Health Study (LHS)(n = 547) and in a replication set, the Vlagtwedde-Vlaardingen cohort (n = 533). We selected polymorphisms in NFE2L2 in genes that positively or negatively regulate NFE2L2 transcriptional activity and in genes that are regulated by NFE2L2. Polymorphisms in 11 genes were significantly associated with rate of lung function decline in the LHS. One of these polymorphisms, rs11085735 in the KEAP1 gene, was previously shown to be associated with the level of lung function in the Vlagtwedde-Vlaardingen cohort but not with decline of lung function. Of the 23 associated polymorphisms in the LHS, only rs634534 in the FOSL1 gene showed a significant association in the Vlagtwedde-Vlaardingen cohort with rate of lung function decline, but the direction of the association was not consistent with that in the LHS. In summary, despite finding several nominally significant polymorphisms in the LHS, none of these associations were replicated in the Vlagtwedde-Vlaardingen cohort, indicating lack of effect of polymorphisms in the NFE2L2 pathway on the rate of decline of lung function.

  10. Subjective cognitive decline and fall risk in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Tashiro, Yuto; Nozaki, Yuma; Aoyama, Tomoki

    2018-05-01

    The association between subjective cognitive decline and falls has not been clearly determined. Our aim was to explore the effect of subjective cognitive decline on falls in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline. We included 470 older adults (mean age 73.6 ± 5.2; 329 women) living in the community and obtained data on fall history directly from the participants. Subjective cognitive decline was assessed using a self-administered question. Objective cognitive function was measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Statistical analyses were carried out separately for participants with objective cognitive decline and those without. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, among participants without objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls [OR 1.91; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-3.12; p = 0.01). Conversely, among participants with objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was negatively associated with falls (OR 0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.85, p = 0.04). The result suggests that the objective-subjective disparity may affect falls in community-dwelling older adults. The presence of subjective cognitive decline was significantly positively associated with falls among cognitively intact older adults. However, among their cognitively impaired peers, the absence of subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls.

  11. Economic conditions and suicide rates in New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandi, Arijit; Prescott, Marta R; Cerdá, Magdalena; Vlahov, David; Tardiff, Kenneth J; Galea, Sandro

    2012-03-15

    Extant analyses of the relation between economic conditions and population health were often based on annualized data and were susceptible to confounding by nonlinear time trends. In the present study, the authors used generalized additive models with nonparametric smoothing splines to examine the association between economic conditions, including levels of economic activity in New York State and the degree of volatility in the New York Stock Exchange, and monthly rates of death by suicide in New York City. The rate of suicide declined linearly from 8.1 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 4.8 per 100,000 people in 1999 and then remained stable from 1999 to 2006. In a generalized additive model in which the authors accounted for long-term and seasonal time trends, there was a negative association between monthly levels of economic activity and rates of suicide; the predicted rate of suicide was 0.12 per 100,000 persons lower when economic activity was at its peak compared with when it was at its nadir. The relation between economic activity and suicide differed by race/ethnicity and sex. Stock market volatility was not associated with suicide rates. Further work is needed to elucidate pathways that link economic conditions and suicide.

  12. recommendations for completing death notification forms in hiv

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-10-14

    Oct 14, 2008 ... (including tuberculosis and respiratory diseases) with age-specific death rates for HIV as predicted by the. Actuarial Society of South Africa model (ASSA 2000), and observed a high level of correlation, concluding that these diseases account for the 'missing' HIV cause of death statistics, and showing that ...

  13. Age-related declines and disease-associated variation in immune cell telomere length in a wild mammal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Beirne

    Full Text Available Immunosenescence, the deterioration of immune system capability with age, may play a key role in mediating age-related declines in whole-organism performance, but the mechanisms that underpin immunosenescence are poorly understood. Biomedical research on humans and laboratory models has documented age and disease related declines in the telomere lengths of leukocytes ('immune cells', stimulating interest their having a potentially general role in the emergence of immunosenescent phenotypes. However, it is unknown whether such observations generalise to the immune cell populations of wild vertebrates living under ecologically realistic conditions. Here we examine longitudinal changes in the mean telomere lengths of immune cells in wild European badgers (Meles meles. Our findings provide the first evidence of within-individual age-related declines in immune cell telomere lengths in a wild vertebrate. That the rate of age-related decline in telomere length appears to be steeper within individuals than at the overall population level raises the possibility that individuals with short immune cell telomeres and/or higher rates of immune cell telomere attrition may be selectively lost from this population. We also report evidence suggestive of associations between immune cell telomere length and bovine tuberculosis infection status, with individuals detected at the most advanced stage of infection tending to have shorter immune cell telomeres than disease positive individuals. While male European badgers are larger and show higher rates of annual mortality than females, we found no evidence of a sex difference in either mean telomere length or the average rate of within-individual telomere attrition with age. Our findings lend support to the view that age-related declines in the telomere lengths of immune cells may provide one potentially general mechanism underpinning age-related declines in immunocompetence in natural populations.

  14. A pediatric death audit in a large referral hospital in Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, Elizabeth; Mlotha-Mitole, Rachel; Ciccone, Emily J; Tilly, Alyssa E; Montijo, Jennie M; Lang, Hans-Joerg; Eckerle, Michelle

    2018-02-21

    Death audits have been used to describe pediatric mortality in under-resourced settings, where record keeping is often a challenge. This information provides the cornerstone for the foundation of quality improvement initiatives. Malawi, located in sub-Saharan Africa, currently has an Under-5 mortality rate of 64/1000. Kamuzu Central Hospital, in the capital city Lilongwe, is a busy government referral hospital, which admits up to 3000 children per month. A study published in 2013 reported mortality rates as high as 9%. This is the first known audit of pediatric death files conducted at this hospital. A retrospective chart review on all pediatric deaths that occurred at Kamuzu Central Hospital (excluding deaths in the neonatal nursery) during a 13-month period was done using a standardized death audit form. A descriptive analysis was completed, including patient demographics, HIV and nutritional status, and cause of death. Modifiable factors were identified that may have contributed to mortality, including a lack of vital sign collection, poor documentation, and delays in the procurement or results of tests, studies, and specialist review. Seven hundred forty three total pediatric deaths were recorded and 700 deceased patient files were reviewed. The mortality rate by month ranged from a low of 2.2% to a high of 4.4%. Forty-four percent of deaths occurred within the first 24 h of admission, and 59% occurred within the first 48 h. The most common causes of death were malaria, malnutrition, HIV-related illnesses, and sepsis. The mortality rate for this pediatric referral center has dramatically decreased in the 6 years since the last published mortality data, but remains high. Areas identified for continued development include improved record keeping, improved patient assessment and monitoring, and more timely and reliable provision of testing and treatment. This study demonstrates that in low-resource settings, where reliable record keeping is often difficult

  15. Drug Poisoning Deaths according to Ethnicity in Utah

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray M. Merrill

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study characterizes drug-related deaths according to ethnicity in Utah during 2005–2010, based on data from the Utah Violent Death Reporting System (UTVDRS. Hispanics made up 12.1% (12.5% male and 11.7% female of deaths. The most frequently identified drugs among decedents were opiates, then illicit drugs, benzodiazepines, over-the-counter medication, and antidepressants. Death rates for each drug were significantly greater in non-Hispanics than Hispanics. Most decedents used a combination of drugs. For each combination, rates were significantly greater for non-Hispanics than Hispanics, with an exception for opiates and illicit drugs combined, where there was no significant difference. Approximately 79% of non-Hispanics and 65% of Hispanics had one or more of the selected problems (e.g., mental, physical, or crisis related. Rates for each combination of problems were significantly greater in non-Hispanics, with the exception of crisis. Hispanics were less affected by the rise in prescription drug abuse. Hispanic decedents had a greater proportion of illegal drugs, consistent with it being more difficult to obtain prescription drugs. Hispanic decedents were less likely to have physical and mental health problems, which may be related to a smaller chance of diagnosis of such problems through the healthcare system.

  16. Sudden unexpected death in infancy: place and time of death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, J F T; Thompson, A J; Ingram, P J

    2006-01-01

    In recent years, many babies who die of Sudden Unexpected Death in Infancy (SUDI) in Northern Ireland are found dead in bed--i.e. co-sleeping--with an adult. In order to assess its frequency autopsy reports between April 1996 and August 2001 were reviewed and linked to temporal factors. The day and month of death, and the place where the baby was found were compared to a reference population of infant deaths between one week of age and the second birthday. Although the rate of SUDI was lower than the UK average, 43 cases of SUDI were identified, and two additional deaths with virtually identical autopsy findings that were attributed to asphyxia caused by suffocation due to overlaying. Thirty-two of the 45 (71%) were less than four months of age. In 30 of the 45 cases (67%) the history stated that the baby was bed sharing with others; 19 died sleeping in an adult bed, and 11 on a sofa or armchair. In 16 of the 30 (53%) there were at least two other people sharing the sleeping surface, and in one case, three. SUDI was twice as frequent at weekends (found dead Saturday-Monday mornings) compared to weekdays (psharing a place of sleep per se may not increase the risk of death, our findings may be linked to factors such as habitual smoking, consumption of alcohol or illicit drugs as reported in case-control studies. In advising parents on safer childcare practices, health professionals must be knowledgeable of current research and when, for example, giving advice on co-sleeping this needs to be person-specific cognisant of the risks within a household. New and better means of targeting such information needs to be researched if those with higher risk life-styles are to be positively influenced.

  17. Life-style and death patterns of the Missouri RLDS church members.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, L; Land, G

    1981-12-01

    Members of the Reorganized Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (RLDS) are dissuaded from the use of tobacco, alcohol, and hot drinks. A well-balanced diet is also stressed. This study compares the 1972-78 mortality experience of the Missouri RLDS with three other population groups. The findings show Missouri RLDS experiencing age-adjusted death rates which are 22.6 percent lower than rates for Missouri non-RLDs whites; 19.6 per cent lower than the non-RLDS of Independence, Missouri; and 14.4 per cent lower than Utah residents. The RLDS display lower death rates than the two Missouri comparison groups for each of seven selected causes-particularly lung cancer, pneumonia/influenza, and violent deaths. Comparisons between the Missouri RLDS and Utah residents show an inconsistent pattern, with Utah residents having non-significantly lower death rates for lung cancer and ischemic heart disease, but with the Missouri RLDS having significantly lower rates for pneumonia/influenza and violent deaths. These inconsistencies are of interest because 72 per cent of Utah's population belong to the Mormon Church which advocates life-styles similar to the RLDS. If these disparate mortality patterns persist under a more direct comparison between the Missouri RLDS and Utah Mormons, they could provide the opportunity to assess the impact of similar life-styles in separate settings.

  18. Leading Causes of Death among Asian American Subgroups (2003-2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine G Hastings

    Full Text Available Our current understanding of Asian American mortality patterns has been distorted by the historical aggregation of diverse Asian subgroups on death certificates, masking important differences in the leading causes of death across subgroups. In this analysis, we aim to fill an important knowledge gap in Asian American health by reporting leading causes of mortality by disaggregated Asian American subgroups.We examined national mortality records for the six largest Asian subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese and non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs from 2003-2011, and ranked the leading causes of death. We calculated all-cause and cause-specific age-adjusted rates, temporal trends with annual percent changes, and rate ratios by race/ethnicity and sex. Rankings revealed that as an aggregated group, cancer was the leading cause of death for Asian Americans. When disaggregated, there was notable heterogeneity. Among women, cancer was the leading cause of death for every group except Asian Indians. In men, cancer was the leading cause of death among Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese men, while heart disease was the leading cause of death among Asian Indians, Filipino and Japanese men. The proportion of death due to heart disease for Asian Indian males was nearly double that of cancer (31% vs. 18%. Temporal trends showed increased mortality of cancer and diabetes in Asian Indians and Vietnamese; increased stroke mortality in Asian Indians; increased suicide mortality in Koreans; and increased mortality from Alzheimer's disease for all racial/ethnic groups from 2003-2011. All-cause rate ratios revealed that overall mortality is lower in Asian Americans compared to NHWs.Our findings show heterogeneity in the leading causes of death among Asian American subgroups. Additional research should focus on culturally competent and cost-effective approaches to prevent and treat specific diseases among these growing diverse populations.

  19. Leading Causes of Death among Asian American Subgroups (2003-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Katherine G; Jose, Powell O; Kapphahn, Kristopher I; Frank, Ariel T H; Goldstein, Benjamin A; Thompson, Caroline A; Eggleston, Karen; Cullen, Mark R; Palaniappan, Latha P

    2015-01-01

    Our current understanding of Asian American mortality patterns has been distorted by the historical aggregation of diverse Asian subgroups on death certificates, masking important differences in the leading causes of death across subgroups. In this analysis, we aim to fill an important knowledge gap in Asian American health by reporting leading causes of mortality by disaggregated Asian American subgroups. We examined national mortality records for the six largest Asian subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese) and non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs) from 2003-2011, and ranked the leading causes of death. We calculated all-cause and cause-specific age-adjusted rates, temporal trends with annual percent changes, and rate ratios by race/ethnicity and sex. Rankings revealed that as an aggregated group, cancer was the leading cause of death for Asian Americans. When disaggregated, there was notable heterogeneity. Among women, cancer was the leading cause of death for every group except Asian Indians. In men, cancer was the leading cause of death among Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese men, while heart disease was the leading cause of death among Asian Indians, Filipino and Japanese men. The proportion of death due to heart disease for Asian Indian males was nearly double that of cancer (31% vs. 18%). Temporal trends showed increased mortality of cancer and diabetes in Asian Indians and Vietnamese; increased stroke mortality in Asian Indians; increased suicide mortality in Koreans; and increased mortality from Alzheimer's disease for all racial/ethnic groups from 2003-2011. All-cause rate ratios revealed that overall mortality is lower in Asian Americans compared to NHWs. Our findings show heterogeneity in the leading causes of death among Asian American subgroups. Additional research should focus on culturally competent and cost-effective approaches to prevent and treat specific diseases among these growing diverse populations.

  20. Early-Transition Output Decline Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crt Kostevc

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we revisit the issue of aggregate output decline that took place in the early transition period. We propose an alternative explanation of output decline that is applicable to Central- and Eastern-European countries. In the first part of the paper we develop a simple dynamic general equilibrium model that builds on work by Gomulka and Lane (2001. In particular, we consider price liberalization, interpreted as elimination of distortionary taxation, as a trigger of the output decline. We show that price liberalization in interaction with heterogeneous adjustment costs and non-employment benefits lead to aggregate output decline and surge in wage inequality. While these patterns are consistent with actual dynamics in CEE countries, this model cannot generate output decline in all sectors. Instead sectors that were initially taxed even exhibit output growth. Thus, in the second part we consider an alternative general equilibrium model with only one production sector and two types of labor and distortion in a form of wage compression during the socialist era. The trigger for labor mobility and consequently output decline is wage liberalization. Assuming heterogeneity of workers in terms of adjustment costs and non-employment benefits can explain output decline in all industries.