Powernext FuturesTM statistics. Jun 30, 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

The introduction of a power exchange in France is a direct response to the opening up of the European electricity markets. Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing an optional and anonymous organised exchange offering: - Day-ahead contracts for the management of volume risk on Powernext Day-Ahead TM since 21 November 2001, - Medium term contracts for the management of price risk on Powernext Futures TM since 18 June 2004. This document presents in a series of tables and graphics the June 30, 2006 update of Powernext Futures TM statistics: year, quarter and month contracts for June 2006, base-load and peak-load contracts overview from January 2006 to June 2006 (monthly volume in MW, open interest by delivery year in MWh, daily settlement price of the upcoming delivery period), and market liquidity in June 2006 (average bid ask spread and availability for base-load and peak-load contracts). (J.S.)

Powernext, newsletter no.18

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-03-01

This newsletter provides information and statistical data on the four business unit of Powernext: Powernext Day-Ahead, Powernext Carbon, Powernext Futures and Powernext Weather. Powernext Day-Ahead provides a short term price reference to manage the volume risk. Powernext Day-Ahead counts close to 50 members among producers, suppliers, eligible consumers, etc. Powernext Carbon is a spot market of CO 2 allowances. The market model is the result of a three-fold partnership between Powernext, Caisse des Depots and Euronext. Powernext Carbon counts close to 30 active members. More than 2 Million tonnes of CO 2 have been traded since the launch of the market on 24 June. Powernext Carbon has made a name for itself as the most liquid CO 2 allowances spot market in Europe to date. Powernext Futures has made a name for itself as a price reference for the medium term market. Its market makers and members guarantee a high-quality market over a time period going up until 2008. Powernext Weather is a range of economically weather driven temperature indices provided by our partner Meteo France. These indices are decision making or hedging tools. This analysis concerns February and March 2004. (A.L.B.)

Powernext, newsletter no.19

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-04-01

This newsletter provides information and statistical data on the four business unit of Powernext: Powernext Day-Ahead, Powernext Carbon, Powernext Futures and Powernext Weather. Powernext Day-Ahead provides a short term price reference to manage the volume risk. Powernext Day-Ahead counts close to 50 members among producers, suppliers, eligible consumers, etc. Powernext Carbon is a spot market of CO 2 allowances. The market model is the result of a three-fold partnership between Powernext, Caisse des Depots and Euronext. Powernext Carbon counts close to 30 active members. More than 2 Million tonnes of CO 2 have been traded since the launch of the market on 24 June. Powernext Carbon has made a name for itself as the most liquid CO 2 allowances spot market in Europe to date. Powernext Futures has made a name for itself as a price reference for the medium term market. Its market makers and members guarantee a high-quality market over a time period going up until 2008. Powernext Weather is a range of economically weather driven temperature indices provided by our partner Meteo France. These indices are decision making or hedging tools. This analysis concerns April 2004. (A.L.B.)

Powernext, newsletter no.20

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-05-01

This newsletter provides information and statistical data on the four business unit of Powernext: Powernext Day-Ahead, Powernext Carbon, Powernext Futures and Powernext Weather. Powernext Day-Ahead provides a short term price reference to manage the volume risk. Powernext Day-Ahead counts close to 50 members among producers, suppliers, eligible consumers, etc. Powernext Carbon is a spot market of CO 2 allowances. The market model is the result of a three-fold partnership between Powernext, Caisse des Depots and Euronext. Powernext Carbon counts close to 30 active members. More than 2 Million tonnes of CO 2 have been traded since the launch of the market on 24 June. Powernext Carbon has made a name for itself as the most liquid CO 2 allowances spot market in Europe to date. Powernext Futures has made a name for itself as a price reference for the medium term market. Its market makers and members guarantee a high-quality market over a time period going up until 2008. Powernext Weather is a range of economically weather driven temperature indices provided by our partner Meteo France. These indices are decision making or hedging tools. This analysis concerns May 2004. (A.L.B.)

Powernext, newsletter no.26

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This newsletter provides information and statistical data on the four business unit of Powernext: Powernext Day-Ahead, Powernext Carbon, Powernext Futures and Powernext Weather. Powernext Day-Ahead provides a short term price reference to manage the volume risk. Powernext Day-Ahead counts close to 50 members among producers, suppliers, eligible consumers, etc. Powernext Carbon is a spot market of CO 2 allowances. The market model is the result of a three-fold partnership between Powernext, Caisse des Depots and Euronext. Powernext Carbon counts close to 30 active members. More than 2 Million tonnes of CO 2 have been traded since the launch of the market on 24 June. Powernext Carbon has made a name for itself as the most liquid CO 2 allowances spot market in Europe to date. Powernext Futures has made a name for itself as a price reference for the medium term market. Its market makers and members guarantee a high-quality market over a time period going up until 2008. Powernext Weather is a range of economically weather driven temperature indices provided by our partner Meteo France. These indices are decision making or hedging tools. This analysis concerns January 2005. (A.L.B.)

Powernext, newsletter no.21

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-07-01

This newsletter provides information and statistical data on the four business unit of Powernext: Powernext Day-Ahead, Powernext Carbon, Powernext Futures and Powernext Weather. Powernext Day-Ahead provides a short term price reference to manage the volume risk. Powernext Day-Ahead counts close to 50 members among producers, suppliers, eligible consumers, etc. Powernext Carbon is a spot market of CO 2 allowances. The market model is the result of a three-fold partnership between Powernext, Caisse des Depots and Euronext. Powernext Carbon counts close to 30 active members. More than 2 Million tonnes of CO 2 have been traded since the launch of the market on 24 June. Powernext Carbon has made a name for itself as the most liquid CO 2 allowances spot market in Europe to date. Powernext Futures has made a name for itself as a price reference for the medium term market. Its market makers and members guarantee a high-quality market over a time period going up until 2008. Powernext Weather is a range of economically weather driven temperature indices provided by our partner Meteo France. These indices are decision making or hedging tools. This analysis concerns July 2004. (A.L.B.)

Powernext futuresTM statistics 31st, July 2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-07-01

The introduction of a power exchange in France is a direct response to the opening up of the European electricity markets. Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing an optional and anonymous organised exchange offering: - Day-ahead contracts for the management of volume risk on Powernext Day-Ahead TM since 21 November 2001, - Medium term contracts for the management of price risk on Powernext Futures TM since 18 June 2004. This document presents in a series of tables and graphics the July 31, 2004 update of Powernext Futures TM statistics: year, quarter and month contracts for July 2004, base-load and peak-load contracts overview from June 2004 to July 2004 (daily volume in lots, open interest by delivery year in MWh, daily settlement price of the upcoming delivery period, base-load and peak-load price spreads), and market liquidity from mid-June to end of July 2004 (average bid ask spread and availability). (J.S.)

Powernext newsletter n. 27

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-02-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange market. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power trade markets during January, February and March 2005. It reports on some daily market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, and on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts. (J.S.)

Powernext newsletter n. 28

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-04-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange market. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power trade markets during February, March and April 2005. It reports on some daily market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, and on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts. (J.S.)

Powernext newsletter n. 33

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-11-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets during August, September and October 2005. It reports on some daily market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 . (J.S.)

Powernext newsletter n. 35

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets during the last 3 months of 2005. It reports on some daily market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 . (J.S.)

Powernext newsletter n. 31

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-09-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets during June, July and August 2005. It reports on some daily market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 . (J.S.)

Powernext newsletter n. 36

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-02-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets from 2005 up to January 2006. It reports on some market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 . (J.S.)

Powernext newsletter n. 34

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-12-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets during September, October and November 2005. It reports on some daily market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 . (J.S.)

Powernext newsletter n. 37

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-03-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets from 2005 up to February 2006. It reports on some market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 . (J.S.)

Powernext newsletter no.39

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conil-Lacoste, J.F.

2006-07-01

This newsletter no 39 of Powernext provides statistical data on Powernext day-Ahead from june 2005 to june 2006, prices and volume of Powernext Futures from june 2004 to june 2006, powernext carbon from june 2005 to june 2006 and some news on Powernext. (A.L.B.)

Powernext, newsletter no.27

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This newsletter provides information and statistical data on the four business unit of Powernext: Powernext Day-Ahead, Powernext Carbon, Powernext Futures and Powernext Weather. Powernext Day-Ahead provides a short term price reference to manage the volume risk. Powernext Day-Aheado counts close to 50 members among producers, suppliers, eligible consumers, etc. Powernext Carbon is a spot market of CO 2 allowances. The market model is the result of a three-fold partnership between Powernext, Caisse des Depots and Euronext. Powernext Carbon counts close to 30 active members. More than 2 Million tonnes of CO 2 have been traded since the launch of the market on 24 June. Powernext Carbon has made a name for itself as the most liquid CO 2 allowances spot market in Europe to date. Powernext Futures has made a name for itself as a price reference for the medium term market. Its market makers and members guarantee a high-quality market over a time period going up until 2008. Powernext Weather is a range of economically weather driven temperature indices provided by our partner Meteo France. These indices are decision making or hedging tools. This analysis concerns February and march 2005. (A.L.B.)

Powernext 2005 activity assessment; Powernext bilan d'activite 2005

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO{sub 2} exchange markets. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in 2005: market conditions (birth of the carbon market, price evolution on the power market), weather-related conditions, electricity production and consumption, situation at the borders, price of fuels, traded volumes at the three markets (Powernext Day-Ahead{sup TM} in the case of day-ahead contracts, Powernext Futures{sup TM} in the case of medium-term contracts, and Powernext Carbon in the case of CO{sub 2}), new active members, liquidity on the power market. (J.S.)

Powernext newsletter n. 29

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-05-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange market. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power trade markets during March, April and May 2005. It reports on some daily market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, and on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts. A cooperation agreement in the CO 2 market is announced between the European Climate Exchange (ECX) and Powernext. Powernext Carbon will be launched on June 24, 2005. (J.S.)

Powernext futuresTM front office user's guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-07-01

The introduction of a power exchange in France is a direct response to the opening up of the European electricity markets. Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised exchange offering: - Day-ahead contracts for the management of volume risk on Powernext Day-Ahead TM since 21 November 2001, - Medium term contracts for the management of price risk on Powernext Futures TM since 18 June 2004. This document is the front office user's guide, it presents: the market model (characteristics, regulation, contractual framework), the members (traders, clearers, quotation providers, fees structure), the products (specifications, use, liquidity and market efficiency), the trading system (architecture, hardware and software requirements, installation process and connecting to server), the trading (session, screen, sending an order, order execution). Contracts codifications and a glossary are given in the appendix. (J.S.)

Powernext newsletter n. 30

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-06-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets during April, May and June 2005. It reports on some daily market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, and on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts. It presents the very first results of Powernext Carbon, the newly launched CO 2 trade market. (J.S.)

Powernext 2005 activity assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in 2005: market conditions (birth of the carbon market, price evolution on the power market), weather-related conditions, electricity production and consumption, situation at the borders, price of fuels, traded volumes at the three markets (Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 ), new active members, liquidity on the power market. (J.S.)

POWERNEXT Newsletter n. 41

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets for the past months and up to January 2006 (editorial: let's give the organized market its due place). It reports on some market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts (January 2006 to January 2007), on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts (December 2005 to December 2006), and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 (December 2005 to December 2006). Some Powernext and market news are summarized at the end of the document. (J.S.)

POWERNEXT Newsletter n. 41

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-01-15

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO{sub 2} exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets for the past months and up to January 2006 (editorial: let's give the organized market its due place). It reports on some market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead{sup TM} in the case of day-ahead contracts (January 2006 to January 2007), on Powernext Futures{sup TM} in the case of medium-term contracts (December 2005 to December 2006), and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO{sub 2} (December 2005 to December 2006). Some Powernext and market news are summarized at the end of the document. (J.S.)

Powernext 2003 assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

The introduction of a power exchange in France is a direct response to the opening up of the European electricity markets. Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised exchange offering: - Day-ahead contracts for the management of volume risk on Powernext Day-Ahead TM since 21 November 2001, - Medium term contracts for the management of price risk on Powernext Futures TM since 18 June 2004. This document is the 2003 activity report of Powernext SA, it presents the key figures of the power market and of Powernext in 2003: increase of prices volatility with respect to 2002, influence of exceptional weather conditions on electricity consumption, other higher prices encountered in Europe the same year, increase of traded volumes with respect to 2002, members' rate of participation, and resiliency index of the market. (J.S.)

Powernext futuresTM back office user's guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-05-01

The introduction of a power exchange in France is a direct response to the opening up of the European electricity markets. Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised exchange offering: - Day-ahead contracts for the management of volume risk on Powernext Day-Ahead TM since 21 November 2001, - Medium term contracts for the management of price risk on Powernext Futures TM since 18 June 2004. This document is the back office user's guide, it presents: the market model (specifications, regulation, legal framework), the members (traders, clearers, quotation providers, fees structure), the products (specifications, use, liquidity and market efficiency), the clearing (recording transactions, risk management before delivery period, last settlement of contracts, risk management during delivery, additional margin, examples, default management), the LCH.Clearnet Ltd clearing system (hardware and software requirements, setup of the VPN client software, functionalities, market information disclosure), the delivery (nomination, file characteristics and transmission), the payment (financial flows, eligible assets provided to cover margin requirements). ECS reports, treasury documents, contracts codification, FTP server arborescence, latent and carried-out margins and a glossary are given in the appendix. (J.S.)

POWERNEXT Newsletter n. 40

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-09-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets for the past months and up to September 2006 (editorial: liberalization, prices and tariffs: restoring a couple of true facts about the electricity market, partial aspect of French market's opening disrupts its operation and not the opposite, the return to a completely regulated market threatens the balance of the French electricity system and the construction of the Europe of energy). It reports on some market statistics (August 2005 to August 2006) related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 . Some Powernext and market news are summarized at the end of the document. (J.S.)

Everything you need to know to operate on Day-AheadTM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-05-01

The introduction of a power exchange in France is a direct response to the opening up of the European electricity markets. Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised exchange offering: - Day-ahead contracts for the management of volume risk on Powernext Day-Ahead TM since 21 November 2001, - Medium term contracts for the management of price risk on Powernext Futures TM since 18 June 2004. This document is the user's guide of Powernext Day-Ahead TM . It presents: 1 - the power exchange in France (market model, Powernext's regulatory environment, general market operations, 2 - Powernext Day-Ahead TM members (membership, agreement, start-up notification, tariffs, standing obligations, membership termination), 3 - Powernext Day-Ahead TM products (specifications, management), 4 - trading (connections, system flow chart, ElWeb client installation and daily connections, portfolio-management, single bidding, type of order, submitting, importing, saving, sending, modifying or canceling an order form, transmission problems, block bidding block bid characteristics, sending, saving, transmitting, modifying and canceling a block bid, price calculations, blind auction procedure, example, taking into account block bids, rounding off rules, consulting and saving the results, sample documents, auction validation), 5 - clearing (LCH.Clearnet SA, legal framework, clearing agreement, PP-DPES agreement, market security, initial margin, daily adjustments, additional margin calls, trade-related financial flows, net financial position, value-added tax, settlement statements, general idea, characteristics and transmission method of settlement statements sample Documents, cash calls, settlement, default, sample cash call documents, financial Reports), 6 - delivery (balance responsible entity, file characteristics and transmission, imbalance settlement, interconnection access), contacts and

POWERNEXT Newsletter n. 38

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-05-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets for the past months and up to April 2006 (editorial: knowing the fair price in order to take on the energy and climate challenges, need for a better coordination of the information at the European level, a liberalization of the French power market at the standstill for the benefit of the German market and prices). It reports on some market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts (April 2005 to April 2006), on Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts (February to April 2006), and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 (June 2005 to April 2006). Some Powernext and market news are summarized at the end of the document. (J.S.)

POWERNEXT Newsletter n. 40

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-09-15

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO{sub 2} exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets for the past months and up to September 2006 (editorial: liberalization, prices and tariffs: restoring a couple of true facts about the electricity market, partial aspect of French market's opening disrupts its operation and not the opposite, the return to a completely regulated market threatens the balance of the French electricity system and the construction of the Europe of energy). It reports on some market statistics (August 2005 to August 2006) related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead{sup TM} in the case of day-ahead contracts, on Powernext Futures{sup TM} in the case of medium-term contracts, and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO{sub 2}. Some Powernext and market news are summarized at the end of the document. (J.S.)

POWERNEXT Newsletter n. 38

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-05-15

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO{sub 2} exchange markets. This issue of Powernext newsletter presents the highlights of the European power and carbon trade markets for the past months and up to April 2006 (editorial: knowing the fair price in order to take on the energy and climate challenges, need for a better coordination of the information at the European level, a liberalization of the French power market at the standstill for the benefit of the German market and prices). It reports on some market statistics related to prices and volumes traded on Powernext Day-Ahead{sup TM} in the case of day-ahead contracts (April 2005 to April 2006), on Powernext Futures{sup TM} in the case of medium-term contracts (February to April 2006), and on Powernext Carbon in the case of CO{sub 2} (June 2005 to April 2006). Some Powernext and market news are summarized at the end of the document. (J.S.)

Comparing the spot prices from Powernext and EEX

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galli, A.; Armstrong, M.

2005-01-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised exchange. Powernext started operating on 27 November 2001. Although the German exchange, EEX, has been functioning for much longer, the two have many common points. Both use the same system for fixing the day-ahead spot price, the one developed by NordPool. In contrast to Omel in Spain, power producers in France and Germany are not obliged to sell through the exchange. In addition, the cross-border transmission lines that physically link the French and German grids, not only make the electricity supply more reliable they also allow cross-border commercial transactions which should homogenize prices in both countries. So after nearly a year of operation it is interesting to compare the spot prices on the two exchanges in order to have a better understanding of the statistical properties of the prices in the two markets and the relationship between them. This information will be used when modelling the structure of the day-ahead spot prices. The data used to carry out the study consists of the (hourly) spot prices for electricity from Powernext and EEX, for the period from 1 January 2002 to 2 December 2002. Data from the first five weeks of trading were not included because traded volumes were relatively low initially and so these data are not necessarily representative. This report is divided into four sections. The first one presents the basic statistics, starting with the histograms of all the 8064 spot prices in the 336 days, for both exchanges. In time series data, it is usual to find three types of seasonality: daily, weekly and annual. As the available data cover less than one calendar year, it is too early to attempt to study annual trends. So we limit ourselves to studying daily and weekly fluctuations. Plotting the hourly average prices for each day of the week shows some interesting differences between Powernext and

Investigation by CRE into record high electricity prices on Powernext Day-ahead Auction in October and November 2007. Analysis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

In October and November 2007, electricity prices hit record highs on the Powernext Day-Ahead Auction trading platform. While, during the first nine months of the year, prices for delivery between 6 pm and 8 pm averaged euros 36 /MWh, rising to a maximum of euros 118 /MWh, they spiked at: - euros 1,236 /MWh for delivery on Monday, 29 October 2007 between 6 pm and 7 pm; - euros 2,500 /MWh for delivery on Monday, 12 November 2007 between 8 pm and 9 pm; - euros 1,762 /MWh for delivery on Thursday, 15 November 2007 between 6 pm and 7 pm. Day ahead prices of electricity have a major effect on the procurement costs of suppliers, and consequently on the formation of selling prices to end consumers. Article 28 of French Act No.2000-108 of 10 February 2000 stipulates that CRE 'shall monitor, for electricity and natural gas, all transactions made between suppliers, brokers and producers, all transactions made on the organised markets and cross-border trading. It shall ensure that bids made by suppliers, brokers and producers are consistent with their financial and technical requirements'. Article 33 of the same Act specifies that, 'In performing the tasks entrusted to it, the French Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) may gather any information it requires from the Ministers for the Economy and for Energy, from public electricity transmission and distribution system operators, from operators of infrastructures for the natural gas transmission and distribution networks and operators of liquefied natural gas facilities, as well as from any other company involved in the electricity and natural gas market. It may also call upon any person whose evidence it deems necessary for the purposes of its investigations'. In this context, and in application of its duty to monitor the electricity wholesale markets, CRE has undertaken an investigation to analyse the mechanisms underlying the formation of such high prices. To this end, CRE gathered information relative to decisions taken by

Powernext Carbon rises in power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conil-Lacoste, J.F.

2007-01-01

Powernext Carbon, the French CO 2 stock exchange, allows industrialists to trade CO 2 emission quotas. Those who have exhausted their allocated quotas can purchase new ones to other industrialists who have emitted less CO 2 than expected. Thanks to Powernext Carbon, the 'polluter pays principle' finally finds a concrete implementation. This article is an interview of J.F. Conil-Lacoste, general director of Powernext, who clarifies some points of the carbon trading system: lessons learnt after 18 months of activity of Powernext Carbon, measures to be implemented to encourage the development of Powernext Carbon, changes made in the 2008-2012 quotas allocation plan of the French government, mechanism of credits for emissions abatement and their role in CO 2 abatement, relevance of a quotas system for individuals. (J.S.)

Day-ahead distributed energy resource scheduling using differential search algorithm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soares, J.; Lobo, C.; Silva, M.

2015-01-01

The number of dispersed energy resources is growing every day, such as the use of more distributed generators. This paper deals with energy resource scheduling model in future smart grids. The methodology can be used by virtual power players (VPPs) considering day-ahead time horizon. This method...... considers that energy resources are managed by a VPP which establishes contracts with their owners. The full AC power flow calculation included in the model takes into account network constraints. This paper presents an application of differential search algorithm (DSA) for solving the day-ahead scheduling...

Hourly Electricity Prices in Day-Ahead Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Huisman (Ronald); C. Huurman; R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

2007-01-01

textabstractThis paper focuses on the characteristics of hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets. In these markets, quotes for day-ahead delivery of electricity are submitted simultaneously for all hours in the next day. The same information set is used for quoting all hours of the day. The

Day-Ahead Anticipation of Complex Network Vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

Stefanov, S. Z.; Wang, Paul P.

2017-11-01

In this paper, a day-ahead anticipation of complex network vulnerability for an intentional threat of an attack or a shock is carried out. An ecological observer is introduced for that reason, which is a watch in the intentional multiverse, tiled by cells; dynamics of the intentional threat for a day-ahead is characterized by a space-time cell; spreading of the intentional threat is derived from its energy; duration of the intentional threat is found by the self-assembling of a space-time cell; the lower bound of probability is assessed to anticipate for a day-ahead the intentional threat; it is indicated that this vulnerability anticipation for a day-ahead is right when the intentional threat leads to dimension doubling of the complex network.

Powernext and the liberalization of the French power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conil-Lacoste, J.F.

2003-01-01

The 1996 European Directive concerning the opening of the power market to competition was transposed in France in February 2000, allowing the creation of a real power market. On November 26, 2001, Powernext launched standard hourly contracts with delivery of power on the French hub the day after trading. The market model chosen guarantees the liquidity, the transparency and the settlement of the transactions thanks to a very close cooperation with Clearnet and RTE. Since November 26, 2001, the volume traded on Powernext has increased on a regular basis reaching the 20 GWh daily plateau in February 2003. The liberalization of the electricity market involved the creation of new exchanges in Europe, by facilitating the power flow from one market to the other, and by causing a reduction of price spreads. Powernext's objective is to accompany the liberalization of the French and European electricity market by offering to its members products adapted to this new environment. (author)

How Does Pricing of Day-ahead Electricity Market Affect Put Option Pricing?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Raouf Sheybani

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, impacts of day-ahead market pricing on behavior of producers and consumers in option and day-ahead markets and on option pricing are studied. To this end, two comprehensive equilibrium models for joint put option and day-ahead markets under pay-as-bid and uniform pricing in day-ahead market are presented, respectively. Interaction between put option and day-ahead markets, uncertainty in fuel price, day-ahead market pricing, and elasticity of consumers to strike price, premium price, and day-ahead price are taken into account in these models. By applying the presented models to a test system impact of day-ahead market pricing on equilibrium of joint put option and day-ahead markets are studied.

Powernext 2002: 32 members 30% monthly growth a positive result

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange market. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in 2002: evolution of prices, power consumption in France, supply and demand, power generation in France, arbitration with other markets, traded volumes, Powernext members. (J.S.)

The impact of wind power on APX day-ahead electricity prices in the Netherlands VVM-Intermittency project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nieuwenhout, F.D.J. [ECN Policy Studies, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Brand, A.J. [ECN Wind Energy, Petten (Netherlands)

2013-02-15

A detailed analysis was conducted to assess to what extent availability of wind energy has influenced day-ahead electricity prices in the Netherlands over the period 2006-2009. With a meteorological model, time series of day-ahead wind forecasts were generated, and these were compared with APX-ENDEX day-ahead market prices. Wind energy contributes to only 4% of electricity generation in the Netherlands, but was found to depress average day-ahead market prices by about 5%. With the help of the bid curves on the APX-ENDEX day-ahead market for 2009, a model was developed to assess the impact of increasing levels of wind generation on power prices in the Netherlands. One of the main findings is that the future impact on prices will be less than in the past. With an increase of installed wind capacity from 2200 MW to 6000 MW, average day-ahead prices are expected to be depressed by an additional 6% in case no additional conventional generation is assumed. Taking into account existing government policy on wind and ongoing investments in new conventional power plants, prices in 2016 will be only 3% lower.

Powernext Carbon, an organized market at the service of the fight against greenhouse effect..; Powernext Carbon, un marche organise au service de la lutte contre l'effet de serre..

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

The European Community directive no 2003/87/CE aims at fighting against climatic change by the implementation of a greenhouse gas emissions trading system. This architecture has been precised in the European Regulation no 2216/2004 relative to the normalized and secured registers system. This document describes the principles of Powernext Carbon, the quotas trading market, launched by Powernext in partnership with Caisse des Depots and Euronext: context, size of the European CO{sub 2} market, regulatory situation, Powernext Carbon - the European CO{sub 2} quotas stock exchange (partnership, architecture, spot products, European members network), theory and practice of Powernext Carbon continuous market (reference electronic platform, 3-step negotiation, invoicing and added value tax, tariffing. (J.S.)

Day-Ahead Energy Planning with 100% Electric Vehicle Penetration in the Nordic Region by 2050

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

2014-01-01

This paper presents the day-ahead energy planning of passenger cars with 100% electric vehicle (EV) penetration in the Nordic region by 2050. EVs will play an important role in the future energy systems which can both reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the transport sector and provide...... demand side flexibility required by the smart grids. On the other hand, the EVs will increase the electricity consumption. In order to quantify the electricity consumption increase due to the 100% EV penetration in the Nordic region to facilitate the power system planning studies, the day-ahead energy...

Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management; Powernext Weather, des indices de reference pour gerer le risque meteo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

Energy and Reserve under Distributed Energy Resources Management-Day-Ahead, Hour-Ahead and Real-Time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soares, Tiago; Silva, Marco; Sousa, Tiago

2017-01-01

and evaluates a generic model for day-ahead, intraday (hour-ahead) and real-time scheduling, considering the joint optimization of energy and reserve in the scope of the virtual power player concept. The model aims to minimize the operation costs in the point of view of one aggregator agent taking into account...

Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kavasseri, Rajesh G.; Seetharaman, Krithika

2009-01-01

With the integration of wind energy into electricity grids, it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate wind speed/power forecasts. Accurate wind speed forecasts are necessary to schedule dispatchable generation and tariffs in the day-ahead electricity market. This paper examines the use of fractional-ARIMA or f-ARIMA models to model, and forecast wind speeds on the day-ahead (24 h) and two-day-ahead (48 h) horizons. The models are applied to wind speed records obtained from four potential wind generation sites in North Dakota. The forecasted wind speeds are used in conjunction with the power curve of an operational (NEG MICON, 750 kW) turbine to obtain corresponding forecasts of wind power production. The forecast errors in wind speed/power are analyzed and compared with the persistence model. Results indicate that significant improvements in forecasting accuracy are obtained with the proposed models compared to the persistence method. (author)

Optimal operation and forecasting policy for pump storage plants in day-ahead markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muche, Thomas

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We investigate unit commitment deploying stochastic and deterministic approaches. • We consider day-ahead markets, its forecast and weekly price based unit commitment. • Stochastic and deterministic unit commitment are identical for the first planning day. • Unit commitment and bidding policy can be based on the deterministic approach. • Robust forecasting models should be estimated based on the whole planning horizon. - Abstract: Pump storage plants are an important electricity storage technology at present. Investments in this technology are expected to increase. The necessary investment valuation often includes expected cash flows from future price-based unit commitment policies. A price-based unit commitment policy has to consider market price uncertainty and the information revealing nature of electricity markets. For this environment stochastic programming models are suggested to derive the optimal unit commitment policy. For the considered day-ahead price electricity market stochastic and deterministic unit commitment policies are comparable suggesting an application of easier implementable deterministic models. In order to identify suitable unit commitment and forecasting policies, deterministic unit commitment models are applied to actual day-ahead electricity prices of a whole year. As a result, a robust forecasting model should consider the unit commitment planning period. This robust forecasting models result in expected cash flows similar to realized ones allowing a reliable investment valuation

Powernext Carbon, an organized market at the service of the fight against greenhouse effect.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

The European Community directive no 2003/87/CE aims at fighting against climatic change by the implementation of a greenhouse gas emissions trading system. This architecture has been precised in the European Regulation no 2216/2004 relative to the normalized and secured registers system. This document describes the principles of Powernext Carbon, the quotas trading market, launched by Powernext in partnership with Caisse des Depots and Euronext: context, size of the European CO 2 market, regulatory situation, Powernext Carbon - the European CO 2 quotas stock exchange (partnership, architecture, spot products, European members network), theory and practice of Powernext Carbon continuous market (reference electronic platform, 3-step negotiation, invoicing and added value tax, tariffing. (J.S.)

Powernext 2002: 32 members 30% monthly growth a positive result

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

The 1996 European Directive on electricity deregulation was transposed into French law by the Act of February 10, 2000 (Modernization and Development of the Public Electricity Service). On April 12, 2000, a steering committee headed by Euronext Paris launched a feasibility study into the creation of an organised electricity market in France. The other members of the committee were BNP-Paribas, Electrabel, Societe Generale, TotalFinaElf and the French and Belgian transmission system operators, RTE and Elia. The committee's work culminated in the formation on July 30, 2001 of a company - Powernext SA - to run a power exchange, to be called Powernext. Powernext adopted a market model that would ensure liquidity, transparency and orderly trading at all times. The model is based on a close working relationship with the pan-European clearing house Clearnet and RTE. (author)

Day-Ahead Energy Planning with 100% Electric Vehicle Penetration in the Nordic Region by 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhaoxi Liu

2014-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the day-ahead energy planning of passenger cars with 100% electric vehicle (EV penetration in the Nordic region by 2050. EVs will play an important role in the future energy systems which can both reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from the transport sector and provide the demand side flexibility required by smart grids. On the other hand, the EVs will increase the electricity consumption. In order to quantify the electricity consumption increase due to the 100% EV penetration in the Nordic region to facilitate the power system planning studies, the day-ahead energy planning of EVs has been investigated with different EV charging scenarios. Five EV charging scenarios have been considered in the energy planning analysis which are: uncontrolled charging all day, uncontrolled charging at home, timed charging, spot price based charging all day and spot price based charging at home. The demand profiles of the five charging analysis show that timed charging is the least favorable charging option and the spot priced based EV charging might induce high peak demands. The EV charging demand will have a considerable share of the energy consumption in the future Nordic power system.

Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

Day-ahead economic optimisation of energy storage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lampropoulos, I.; Garoufalis, P.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Groot, de R.J.W.; Kling, W.L.

2014-01-01

This article addresses the day-ahead economic optimisation of energy storage systems within the setting of electricity spot markets. The case study is about a lithium-ion battery system integrated in a low voltage distribution grid with residential customers and photovoltaic generation in the

Congestion management of distribution networks with day-ahead dynamic grid tariffs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Shaojun; Wu, Qiuwei

vehicles (EV) and heat pumps (HP), will be largely deployed in electrical distribution networks. Congestion management will be important in the future active distribution networks. In the IDE4L project, work package 5 is dedicated to develop different kinds of congestion management methods. Demand response...... (DR) is one of the important methods. In this report, as one task of work package 5, the day-ahead dynamic tariff (DADT) method for congestion management in distribution networks is presented. The dynamic tariff (DT) can motivate the flexible demands (EV and HP) to shift their energy consumption...

The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paraschiv, Florentina; Erni, David; Pietsch, Ralf

2014-01-01

In this paper, we analyze the impact of renewable energies, wind and photovoltaic, on the formation of day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. We give an overview of the policy decisions concerning the promotion of renewable energy sources in Germany and discuss their consequences on day-ahead prices. An analysis of electricity spot prices reveals that the introduction of renewable energies enhances extreme price changes. In the frame of a dynamic fundamental model, we show that there has been a continuous electricity price adaption process to market fundamentals. Furthermore, the fundamental drivers of prices differ among hours with different load profiles. Our results imply that renewable energies decrease market spot prices and have implications on the traditional fuel mix for electricity production. However, the prices for the final consumers increased overall because they must pay in addition the feed-in tariffs for the promotion of renewable energy. - Highlights: • We analyze the impact of renewable energies on the day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. • We discuss the impact of renewables on day-ahead prices. • We show a continuous electricity price adaption process to market fundamentals. • Renewable energies decrease market spot prices and shift the merit order curve. • The prices for the final consumers however increased because of feed-in tariffs

Can a wind farm with CAES survive in the day-ahead market?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mauch, Brandon; Carvalho, Pedro M.S.; Apt, Jay

2012-01-01

We investigate the economic viability of coupling a wind farm with compressed air energy storage (CAES) to participate in the day-ahead electricity market at a time when renewable portfolio standards are not binding and wind competes freely in the marketplace. In our model, the CAES is used to reduce the risk of committing uncertain quantities of wind energy and to shift dispatch of wind generation to high price periods. Other sources of revenue (capacity markets, ancillary services, price arbitrage) are not included in the analysis. We present a model to calculate profit maximizing day-ahead dispatch schedules based on wind forecasts. Annual profits are determined with dispatch schedules and actual wind generation values. We find that annual income for the modeled wind–CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs using market prices from the years 2006 to 2009. We also estimate market prices with a carbon price of $20 and $50 per tonne CO 2 and find that revenue would still not cover the capital costs. The implied cost per tonne of avoided CO 2 to make a wind–CAES profitable from trading on the day-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. - Highlights: ► We modeled a wind farm participating in the day-ahead electricity market. ► We calculated optimal day-ahead market offers based on wind forecasts. ► Revenue is then calculated using measured wind power. ► We find that revenue is insufficient to cover capital costs at current market prices.

Day-ahead tariffs for the alleviation of distribution grid congestion from electric vehicles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

O'Connell, Niamh; Wu, Qiuwei; Østergaard, Jacob

2012-01-01

An economically efficient day-ahead tariff (DT) is proposed with the purpose of preventing the distribution grid congestion resulting from electric vehicle (EV) charging scheduled on a dayahead basis. The DT concept developed herein is derived from the locational marginal price (LMP), in particular...... the congestion cost component of the LMP. A step-wise congestion management structure has been developed whereby the distribution system operator (DSO) predicts congestion for the coming day and publishes DTs prior to the clearing of the day-ahead market. EV fleet operators (FOs) optimize their EV charging...... schedules with respect to the predicted day-ahead prices and the published DTs, thereby avoiding congestion while still minimizing the charging cost. A Danish 400V distribution network is used to carry out case studies to illustrate the effectiveness of the developed concept for the prevention...

Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José R. Andrade

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Forecasting the hourly spot price of day-ahead and intraday markets is particularly challenging in electric power systems characterized by high installed capacity of renewable energy technologies. In particular, periods with low and high price levels are difficult to predict due to a limited number of representative cases in the historical dataset, which leads to forecast bias problems and wide forecast intervals. Moreover, these markets also require the inclusion of multiple explanatory variables, which increases the complexity of the model without guaranteeing a forecasting skill improvement. This paper explores information from daily futures contract trading and forecast of the daily average spot price to correct point and probabilistic forecasting bias. It also shows that an adequate choice of explanatory variables and use of simple models like linear quantile regression can lead to highly accurate spot price point and probabilistic forecasts. In terms of point forecast, the mean absolute error was 3.03 €/MWh for day-ahead market and a maximum value of 2.53 €/MWh was obtained for intraday session 6. The probabilistic forecast results show sharp forecast intervals and deviations from perfect calibration below 7% for all market sessions.

Application of a Gradient Descent Continuous Actor-Critic Algorithm for Double-Side Day-Ahead Electricity Market Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiru Zhao

2016-09-01

Full Text Available An important goal of China’s electric power system reform is to create a double-side day-ahead wholesale electricity market in the future, where the suppliers (represented by GenCOs and demanders (represented by DisCOs compete simultaneously with each other in one market. Therefore, modeling and simulating the dynamic bidding process and the equilibrium in the double-side day-ahead electricity market scientifically is not only important to some developed countries, but also to China to provide a bidding decision-making tool to help GenCOs and DisCOs obtain more profits in market competition. Meanwhile, it can also provide an economic analysis tool to help government officials design the proper market mechanisms and policies. The traditional dynamic game model and table-based reinforcement learning algorithm have already been employed in the day-ahead electricity market modeling. However, those models are based on some assumptions, such as taking the probability distribution function of market clearing price (MCP and each rival’s bidding strategy as common knowledge (in dynamic game market models, and assuming the discrete state and action sets of every agent (in table-based reinforcement learning market models, which are no longer applicable in a realistic situation. In this paper, a modified reinforcement learning method, called gradient descent continuous Actor-Critic (GDCAC algorithm was employed in the double-side day-ahead electricity market modeling and simulation. This algorithm can not only get rid of the abovementioned unrealistic assumptions, but also cope with the Markov decision-making process with continuous state and action sets just like the real electricity market. Meanwhile, the time complexity of our proposed model is only O(n. The simulation result of employing the proposed model in the double-side day-ahead electricity market shows the superiority of our approach in terms of participant’s profit or social welfare

Forecasting Nord Pool day-ahead prices with an autoregressive model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristiansen, Tarjei

2012-01-01

This paper presents a model to forecast Nord Pool hourly day-ahead prices. The model is based on but reduced in terms of estimation parameters (from 24 sets to 1) and modified to include Nordic demand and Danish wind power as exogenous variables. We model prices across all hours in the analysis period rather than across each single hour of 24 hours. By applying three model variants on Nord Pool data, we achieve a weekly mean absolute percentage error (WMAE) of around 6–7% and an hourly mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) ranging from 8% to 11%. Out of sample results yields a WMAE and an hourly MAPE of around 5%. The models enable analysts and traders to forecast hourly day-ahead prices accurately. Moreover, the models are relatively straightforward and user-friendly to implement. They can be set up in any trading organization. - Highlights: ► Forecasting Nord Pool day-ahead prices with an autoregressive model. ► The model is based on but with the set of parameters reduced from 24 to 1. ► The model includes Nordic demand and Danish wind power as exogenous variables. ► Hourly mean absolute percentage error ranges from 8% to 11%. ► Out of sample results yields a WMAE and an hourly MAPE of around 5%.

Day-ahead optimal dispatch for wind integrated power system considering zonal reserve requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Fan; Bie, Zhaohong; Liu, Shiyu; Ding, Tao

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Analyzing zonal reserve requirements for wind integrated power system. • Modeling day-ahead optimal dispatch solved by chance constrained programming theory. • Determining optimal zonal reserve demand with minimum confidence interval. • Analyzing numerical results on test and large-scale real-life power systems. - Abstract: Large-scale integration of renewable power presents a great challenge for day-ahead dispatch to manage renewable resources while provide available reserve for system security. Considering zonal reserve is an effective way to ensure reserve deliverability when network congested, a random day-ahead dispatch optimization of wind integrated power system for a least operational cost is modeled including zonal reserve requirements and N − 1 security constraints. The random model is transformed into a deterministic one based on the theory of chance constrained programming and a determination method of optimal zonal reserve demand is proposed using the minimum confidence interval. After solving the deterministic model, the stochastic simulation is conducted to verify the validity of solution. Numerical tests and results on the IEEE 39 bus system and a large-scale real-life power system demonstrate the optimal day-ahead dispatch scheme is available and the proposed method is effective for improving reserve deliverability and reducing load shedding after large-capacity power outage.

POWERNEXT Carbon statistics September 30, 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This short document summarizes the statistics of Powernext Carbon, the European CO 2 trading market, for the July-September 2006 period: total market volume, daily average, highest, number and average size of trades, number of members, average closing price, variation, low and high traded. The monthly volumes and closing prices for the September 2005 - September 2006 era are summarized in a graphics. (J.S.)

POWERNEXT Carbon statistics November 30, 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This short document summarizes the statistics of Powernext Carbon, the European CO 2 trading market, for the September-November 2006 period: total market volume, daily average, highest, number and average size of trades, number of members, average closing price, variation, low and high traded. The monthly volumes and closing prices for the November 2005 - November 2006 era are summarized in a graphics. (J.S.)

Powernext Carbon statistics - June 30, 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This short document summarizes the statistics of Powernext Carbon, the European CO 2 quotas trading market, for the second quarter of 2006: total market volume, daily average, highest, number and average size of trades, number of members, average closing price, variation, low and high traded. The monthly volumes and closing prices from June 2005 to June 2006 are summarized in a graphics. (J.S.)

POWERNEXT Carbon statistics October 31, 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This short document summarizes the statistics of Powernext Carbon, the European CO 2 trading market, for the August-October 2006 period: total market volume, daily average, highest, number and average size of trades, number of members, average closing price, variation, low and high traded. The monthly volumes and closing prices for the October 2005 - October 2006 era are summarized in a graphics. (J.S.)

Powernext Carbon statistics - May 31, 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This short document summarizes the statistics of Powernext Carbon, the European CO 2 quotas trading market, for March, April and May 2006: total market volume, daily average, highest, number and average size of trades, number of members, average closing price, variation, low and high traded. The daily volume and closing price from June 2005 to May 2006 are summarized in a graphics. (J.S.)

Powernext Carbon statistics - August 31, 2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This short document summarizes the statistics of Powernext Carbon, the European CO 2 quotas trading market, for June, July and August 2005: total market volume, daily average, highest, number and average size of trades, number of members, average closing price, variation, low and high traded. The daily volume and closing price from June 2005 to August 2005 are summarized in a graphics and a members list is supplied. (J.S.)

Powernext Carbon statistics - March 31, 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This short document summarizes the statistics of Powernext Carbon, the European CO 2 quotas trading market, for the first quarter of 2006: total market volume, daily average, highest, number and average size of trades, number of members, average closing price, variation, low and high traded. The daily volume and closing price from June 2005 to March 2006 are summarized in a graphics and a members list is supplied. (J.S.)

Powernext Carbon statistics - November 30, 2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This short document summarizes the statistics of Powernext Carbon, the European CO 2 quotas trading market, for September, October and November 2005: total market volume, daily average, highest, number and average size of trades, number of members, average closing price, variation, low and high traded. The daily volume and closing price from June 2005 to November 2005 are summarized in a graphics and a members list is supplied. (J.S.)

Powernext Carbon statistics - February 28, 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This short document summarizes the statistics of Powernext Carbon, the European CO 2 quotas trading market, for December 2005 and January-February 2006: total market volume, daily average, highest, number and average size of trades, number of members, average closing price, variation, low and high traded. The daily volume and closing price from June 2005 to February 2005 are summarized in a graphics and a members list is supplied. (J.S.)

Powernext Carbon statistics - October 31, 2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This short document summarizes the statistics of Powernext Carbon, the European CO 2 quotas trading market, for August, September and October 2005: total market volume, daily average, highest, number and average size of trades, number of members, average closing price, variation, low and high traded. The daily volume and closing price from June 2005 to November 2005 are summarized in a graphics and a members list is supplied. (J.S.)

MASCEM: EPEX SPOT Day-Ahead market integration and simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Santos, Gabriel; Fernandes, Ricardo; Pinto, Tiago

2015-01-01

. It is crucial to MASCEM to have the ability to simulate as many market models and player types as possible, thus enhancing the ability to recreate the electricity markets reality in its maximum possible extent. This paper presents the EPEX Spot Day-Ahead market integration in MASCEM. EPEX Spot SE's mission...

What day-ahead reserves are needed in electric grids with high levels of wind power?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mauch, Brandon; Apt, Jay; Jaramillo, Paulina; Carvalho, Pedro M S

2013-01-01

Day-ahead load and wind power forecasts provide useful information for operational decision making, but they are imperfect and forecast errors must be offset with operational reserves and balancing of (real time) energy. Procurement of these reserves is of great operational and financial importance in integrating large-scale wind power. We present a probabilistic method to determine net load forecast uncertainty for day-ahead wind and load forecasts. Our analysis uses data from two different electric grids in the US with similar levels of installed wind capacity but with large differences in wind and load forecast accuracy, due to geographic characteristics. We demonstrate that the day-ahead capacity requirements can be computed based on forecasts of wind and load. For 95% day-ahead reliability, this required capacity ranges from 2100 to 5700 MW for ERCOT, and 1900 to 4500 MW for MISO (with 10 GW of installed wind capacity), depending on the wind and load forecast values. We also show that for each MW of additional wind power capacity for ERCOT, 0.16–0.30 MW of dispatchable capacity will be used to compensate for wind uncertainty based on day-ahead forecasts. For MISO (with its more accurate forecasts), the requirement is 0.07–0.13 MW of dispatchable capacity for each MW of additional wind capacity. (letter)

Optimal scheduling for electric heat booster under day-ahead electricity and heat pricing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cai, Hanmin; You, Shi; Bindner, Henrik W.

2017-01-01

Multi-energy system (MES) operation calls for active management of flexible resources across energy sectors to improve efficiency and meet challenging environmental targets. Electric heat booster, a solution for Domestic Hot Water (DHW) preparation under Low-Temperature-District-Heating (LTDH......) context, is identified as one of aforementioned flexible resources for electricity and heat sectors. This paper extends the concept of optimal load scheduling under day-ahead pricing from electricity sector only to both electricity and heat sectors. A case study constructing day-ahead energy prices...

The effect of contingency analysis on the nodal prices in the day-ahead market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, Frederic H.; Mudrageda, Murthy; Soyster, Allen L.; Saric, Andrija T.; Stankovic, Aleksandar M.

2010-01-01

We look at the effect of modeling branch-outage contingencies on locational marginal prices. To model contingencies in the day-ahead auction, we formulate a two-stage stochastic program. Rather than follow the current practice of including a list of possible contingencies that must be satisfied, we incorporate a larger set of contingencies in the model and allow contingencies to result in load reductions/outages at a cost. The model can be used and interpreted in two ways. One is to look at the tradeoff between reliability and outage costs. Another is to consider the load losses resulting from a contingency to be consumer offers of load reductions in response to line outages as part of the day-ahead auction. In analyzing the model structure, we find that the prices in the model closer in definition to those currently used in the day-ahead auction do not maximize expected surplus because the day-ahead auction produces prices that assume shortages will never occur. This raises issues with the design of auctions with important stochastic elements in the market. We present results for a 68-node grid with 86 branches (lines and transformers) to illustrate how prices and expected values change as the costs of outages are varied.

Coordination of bidding strategies in day-ahead energy and spinning reserve markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fushuan Wen; David, A.K.

2002-01-01

In this paper, the problem of building optimally coordinated bidding strategies for competitive suppliers in day-ahead energy and spinning reserve markets is addressed. It is assumed that each supplier bids 24 linear energy supply functions and 24 linear spinning reserve supply functions, one for each hour, into the energy and spinning reserve markets, respectively, and each market is cleared separately and simultaneously for all the 24 delivery hours. Each supplier makes decisions on unit commitment and chooses the coefficients in the linear energy and spinning reserve supply functions to maximise total benefits, subject to expectations about how rival suppliers will bid in both markets. Two different bidding schemes have been suggested for each hour, and based on them an overall coordinated bidding strategy in the day-ahead energy and spinning reserve market is then developed. Stochastic optimisation models are first developed to describe these two different bidding schemes and a genetic algorithm (GA) is then used to build the optimally coordinated bidding strategies for each scheme and to develop an overall bidding strategy for the day-ahead energy and spinning reserve markets. A numerical example is utilised to illustrate the essential features of the method. (Author)

Energy and Reserve under Distributed Energy Resources Management—Day-Ahead, Hour-Ahead and Real-Time

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiago Soares

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources based on renewable energy sources in distribution systems leads to a more complex management of power systems. Consequently, ancillary services become even more important to maintain the system security and reliability. This paper proposes and evaluates a generic model for day-ahead, intraday (hour-ahead and real-time scheduling, considering the joint optimization of energy and reserve in the scope of the virtual power player concept. The model aims to minimize the operation costs in the point of view of one aggregator agent taking into account the balance of the distribution system. For each scheduling stage, previous scheduling results and updated forecasts are considered. An illustrative test case of a distribution network with 33 buses, considering a large penetration of distribution energy resources allows demonstrating the benefits of the proposed model.

Day-ahead resource scheduling including demand response for electric vehicles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soares, Joao; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago

2014-01-01

Summary form only given. The energy resource scheduling is becoming increasingly important, as the use of distributed resources is intensified and massive gridable vehicle (V2G) use is envisaged. This paper presents a methodology for day-ahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering...

Demand Response from Day-Ahead Hourly Pricing for Large Customers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopper, Nicole; Goldman, Charles; Neenan, Bernie

2006-01-01

Day-ahead default-service RTP for large customers not only improves the linkage between wholesale and retail markets, but also promotes the development of retail competition. The default service sets a standard for competitive alternatives and its structure shapes the types of retail market products that develop. (author)

Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization based Day-Ahead Self-Scheduling for Thermal Generator in Competitive Electricity Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pindoriya, Naran M.; Singh, S.N.; Østergaard, Jacob

2009-01-01

in day-ahead energy market subject to operational constraints and 2) at the same time, to minimize the risk due to uncertainty in price forecast. Therefore, it is a conflicting bi-objective optimization problem which has both binary and continuous optimization variables considered as constrained mixed......This paper presents a hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm (HPSO) to solve the day-ahead self-scheduling for thermal power producer in competitive electricity market. The objective functions considered to model the self-scheduling problem are 1) to maximize the profit from selling energy...... integer nonlinear programming. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for self-scheduling in a day-ahead energy market, the locational margin price (LMP) forecast uncertainty in PJM electricity market is considered. An adaptive wavelet neural network (AWNN) is used to forecast the day...

Customer Strategies for Responding to Day-Ahead Market HourlyElectricity Pricing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldman, Chuck; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Boisvert, Dick; Cappers, Peter; Pratt, Donna; Butkins, Kim

2005-08-25

Real-time pricing (RTP) has been advocated as an economically efficient means to send price signals to customers to promote demand response (DR) (Borenstein 2002, Borenstein 2005, Ruff 2002). However, limited information exists that can be used to judge how effectively RTP actually induces DR, particularly in the context of restructured electricity markets. This report describes the second phase of a study of how large, non-residential customers' adapted to default-service day-ahead hourly pricing. The customers are located in upstate New York and served under Niagara Mohawk, A National Grid Company (NMPC)'s SC-3A rate class. The SC-3A tariff is a type of RTP that provides firm, day-ahead notice of hourly varying prices indexed to New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead market prices. The study was funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC)'s PIER program through the Demand Response Research Center (DRRC). NMPC's is the first and longest-running default-service RTP tariff implemented in the context of retail competition. The mix of NMPC's large customers exposed to day-ahead hourly prices is roughly 30% industrial, 25% commercial and 45% institutional. They have faced periods of high prices during the study period (2000-2004), thereby providing an opportunity to assess their response to volatile hourly prices. The nature of the SC-3A default service attracted competitive retailers offering a wide array of pricing and hedging options, and customers could also participate in demand response programs implemented by NYISO. The first phase of this study examined SC-3A customers' satisfaction, hedging choices and price response through in-depth customer market research and a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) demand model (Goldman et al. 2004). This second phase was undertaken to answer questions that remained unresolved and to quantify price response to a higher level of granularity. We accomplished these

Hydrothermal self-scheduling problem in a day-ahead electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bisanovic, Smajo; Dlakic, Muris; Hajro, Mensur

2008-01-01

This paper addresses the self-scheduling problem of determining the unit commitment status for power generation companies before submitting the hourly bids in a day-ahead market. The hydrothermal model is formulated as a deterministic optimization problem where expected profit is maximized using the 0/1 mixed-integer linear programming technique. This approach allows precise modelling of non-convex variable cost functions and non-linear start-up cost functions of thermal units, non-concave power-discharge characteristics of hydro units, ramp rate limits of thermal units and minimum up and down time constraints for both hydro and thermal units. Model incorporates long-term bilateral contracts with contracted power and price patterns, as well as forecasted market hourly prices for day-ahead auction. Solution is achieved using the homogeneous interior point method for linear programming as state of the art technique, with a branch and bound optimizer for integer programming. The effectiveness of the proposed model in optimizing the generation schedule is demonstrated through the case studies and their analysis. (author)

Agent-Based Modeling of Day-Ahead Real Time Pricing in a Pool-Based Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sh. Yousefi

2011-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an agent-based structure of the electricity retail market is presented based on which day-ahead (DA energy procurement for customers is modeled. Here, we focus on operation of only one Retail Energy Provider (REP agent who purchases energy from DA pool-based wholesale market and offers DA real time tariffs to a group of its customers. As a model of customer response to the offered real time prices, an hourly acceptance function is proposed in order to represent the hourly changes in the customer’s effective demand according to the prices. Here, Q-learning (QL approach is applied in day-ahead real time pricing for the customers enabling the REP agent to discover which price yields the most benefit through a trial-and-error search. Numerical studies are presented based on New England day-ahead market data which include comparing the results of RTP based on QL approach with that of genetic-based pricing.

Stochastic coordination of joint wind and photovoltaic systems with energy storage in day-ahead market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomes, I.L.R.; Pousinho, H.M.I.; Melício, R.; Mendes, V.M.F.

2017-01-01

This paper presents an optimal bid submission in a day-ahead electricity market for the problem of joint operation of wind with photovoltaic power systems having an energy storage device. Uncertainty not only due to the electricity market price, but also due to wind and photovoltaic powers is one of the main characteristics of this submission. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming problem. The optimal bids and the energy flow in the batteries are the first-stage variables and the energy deviation is the second stage variable of the problem. Energy storage is a way to harness renewable energy conversion, allowing the store and discharge of energy at conveniently market prices. A case study with data from the Iberian day-ahead electricity market is presented and a comparison between joint and disjoint operations is discussed. - • Joint wind and PV systems with energy storage. • Electricity markets. • Stochastic optimization. • Day-ahead market.

Optimal day-ahead operational planning of microgrids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosseinnezhad, Vahid; Rafiee, Mansour; Ahmadian, Mohammad; Siano, Pierluigi

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A new multi-objective model for optimal day-ahead operational planning of microgrids is proposed. • A new concept called seamlessness is introduced to control the sustainability of microgrid. • A new method is developed to manage the load and renewable energy resources estimation errors. • A new solution based on a combination of numerical and evolutionary approaches is proposed. - Abstract: Providing a cost-efficient, eco-friendly and sustainable energy is one of the main issues in modern societies. In response to this demand, new features of microgrid technology have provided huge potentials while distributing electricity more effectively, economically and securely. Accordingly, this paper presents a new multi-objective generation management model for optimal day-ahead operational planning of medium voltage microgrids. The proposed model optimizes both pollutant emission and operating cost of a microgrid by using multi-objective optimization. Besides, a seamlessness-selective algorithm is integrated into the model, which can be adopted to achieve the desired self-sufficiency level for microgrids along a specified planning horizon. Furthermore, the model is characterized by a reserve-assessment strategy developed to handle the load and renewable energy resources estimation errors. The introduced model is solved using a combination of numerical and evolutionary methods of species-based quantum particle swarm optimization to find the optimal scheduling scheme and minos-based optimal power flow to optimize the operating cost and emission. In addition, the suggested solution approach also incorporates an efficient mechanism for considering energy storage systems and coding the candidate solutions in the evolutionary algorithm. The proposed model is implemented on a test microgrid and is investigated through simulations to study the different aspects of the problem. The results show significant improvements and benefits which are obtained by

Risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viehmann, Johannes

2011-01-01

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Wholesale Market. We compare hourly price data of the European Energy Exchange (EEX) auction and of the continuous over-the-counter (OTC) market which takes place prior to the EEX auction. Data provided by the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) has been used as a snapshot of the OTC market two hours prior to the EEX auction. Ex post analysis found market participants are willing to pay both significant positive and negative premiums for hourly contracts. The largest positive premiums were paid for high demand evening peak hours on weekdays during winter months. By contrast, night hours on weekends featuring lowest demand levels display negative premiums. Additionally, ex ante analysis found a strong positive correlation between the expected tightness of the system and positive premiums. For this purpose, a tightness factor has been introduced that includes expectations of fundamental factors such as power plant availability, wind power production and demand. Hence, findings by can be supported that power traders in liberalised markets behave like risk-averse rational economic agents. - Research highlights: →Analysis of hourly risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Wholesale Market. →Market participants are willing to pay both significant positive and negative premiums for hourly contracts. →A strong correlation exists between the expected tightness of the power system and premiums.

Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets

OpenAIRE

Ziel, Florian; Steinert, Rick; Husmann, Sven

2015-01-01

In our paper we analyze the relationship between the day-ahead electricity price of the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) and other day-ahead electricity prices in Europe. We focus on markets, which settle their prices after the EXAA, which enables traders to include the EXAA price into their calculations. For each market we employ econometric models to incorporate the EXAA price and compare them with their counterparts without the price of the Austrian exchange. By employing a forecasting study...

Comparative analysis of features of Polish and Lithuanian Day-ahead electricity market prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bobinaite, Viktorija; Juozapaviciene, Aldona; Staniewski, Marcin; Szczepankowski, Piotr

2013-01-01

The goal of this article is to better understand the processes of electricity market price formation in Poland and Lithuania through an analysis of the features (volatility and spikes) of Lithuanian and Polish day-ahead electricity market prices and to assess how acquired electricity price features could affect the achievement of the main goals of the national energy policy. The following indicators have been calculated to determine electricity market price volatility: the oscillation coefficient, the coefficient of variation, an adjusted coefficient of variation, the standard deviation indicator, the daily velocity indicator (based on the overall average price) and the daily velocity indicator (based on the daily average price). Critical values for electricity market price have been calculated to evaluate price spikes. This analysis reveals that electricity market-price volatility is moderate in Poland and high in Lithuania. Electricity price spikes have been an observable phenomenon both in Lithuanian and in Polish day-ahead electricity markets, but they are more common in Lithuania, encompassing 3.15% of the time period analysed in Poland and 4.68% of the time period analysed in Lithuania. Volatile, spiking and increasing electricity prices in day-ahead electricity markets in Lithuania and Poland create preconditions and substantiate the relevance of implementation of the national energy policies and measures. - Highlights: • Moderate and seasonal volatility. • spiking market price and. • stable average price

Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Yuanjing

2015-01-01

This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

Simulation of regional day-ahead PV power forecast scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nuno, Edgar; Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

2017-01-01

Uncertainty associated with Photovoltaic (PV) generation can have a significant impact on real-time planning and operation of power systems. This obstacle is commonly handled using multiple forecast realizations, obtained using for example forecast ensembles and/or probabilistic forecasts, often...... at the expense of a high computational burden. Alternatively, some power system applications may require realistic forecasts rather than actual estimates; able to capture the uncertainty of weatherdriven generation. To this end, we propose a novel methodology to generate day-ahead forecast scenarios of regional...... PV production matching the spatio-temporal characteristics while preserving the statistical properties of actual records....

Day-Ahead Self-Scheduling of Thermal Generator in Competitive Electricity Market Using Hybrid PSO

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pindoriya, N.M.; Singh, Sri Niwas; Østergaard, Jacob

2009-01-01

in day-ahead energy market subject to operational constraints and 2) at the same time, to minimize the risk due to uncertainty in price forecast. Therefore, it is a conflicting biobjective optimization problem which has both binary and continuous optimization variables considered as constrained mixed......This paper presents a hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm (HPSO) to solve the day-ahead selfscheduling for thermal power producer in competitive electricity market. The objective functions considered to model the selfscheduling problem are: 1) to maximize the profit from selling energy...... integer nonlinear programming. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for self-scheduling in a dayahead energy market, the locational margin price (LMP) forecast uncertainty in PJM electricity market is considered. An adaptive wavelet neural network (AWNN) is used to forecast the dayahead...

How to sell renewable electricity. Interactions of the intraday and day-ahead market under uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knaut, Andreas; Obermueller, Frank

2016-04-15

Uncertainty about renewable production increases the importance of sequential short-term trading in electricity markets. We consider a two-stage market where conventional and renewable producers compete in order to satisfy the demand of consumers. The trading in the first stage takes place under uncertainty about production levels of renewable producers, which can be associated with trading in the day-ahead market. In the second stage, which we consider as the intraday market, uncertainty about the production levels is resolved. Our model is able to capture different levels of flexibility for conventional producers as well as different levels of competition for renewable producers. We find that it is optimal for renewable producers to sell less than the expected production in the day-ahead market. In situations with high renewable production it is even profitable for renewable producers to withhold quantities in the intraday market. However, for an increasing number of renewable producers, the optimal quantity tends towards the expected production level. More competition as well as a more flexible power plant fleet lead to an increase in overall welfare, which can even be further increased by delaying the gate-closure of the day-ahead market or by improving the quality of renewable production forecasts.

Sequential bidding in day-ahead auctions for spot energy and power systems reserve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swider, Derk J.

2005-01-01

In this paper a novel approach for sequential bidding on day-ahead auction markets for spot energy and power systems reserve is presented. For the spot market a relatively simple method is considered as a competitive market is assumed. For the reserve market one bidder is assumed to behave strategically and the behavior of the competitors is summarized in a probability distribution of the market price. This results in a method for sequential bidding, where the bidding prices and capacities on the spot and reserve markets are calculated by maximizing a stochastic non-linear objective function of expected profit. With an exemplary application is shown that the trading sequence leads to increasing bidding capacities and prices in the reverse rank number of the markets. Hence, the consideration of a defined trading sequence greatly influences the mathematical representation of the optimal bidding behavior under price uncertainty in day-ahead auctions for spot energy and power systems reserve. (Author)

A regime-switching copula approach to modeling day-ahead prices in coupled electricity markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pircalabu, Anca; Benth, Fred Espen

2017-01-01

significant evidence of tail dependence in all pairs of interconnected areas we consider. As a first application of the proposed model, we consider the pricing of financial transmission rights, and highlight how the choice of marginal distributions and copula impacts prices. As a second application we......The recent price coupling of many European electricity markets has triggered a fundamental change in the interaction of day-ahead prices, challenging additionally the modeling of the joint behavior of prices in interconnected markets. In this paper we propose a regime-switching AR–GARCH copula...... to model pairs of day-ahead electricity prices in coupled European markets. While capturing key stylized facts empirically substantiated in the literature, this model easily allows us to 1) deviate from the assumption of normal margins and 2) include a more detailed description of the dependence between...

Deriving Optimal End of Day Storage for Pumped-Storage Power Plants in the Joint Energy and Reserve Day-Ahead Scheduling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Chazarra

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new methodology to maximise the income and derive the optimal end of day storage of closed-loop and daily-cycle pumped-storage hydropower plants. The plants participate in the day-ahead energy market as a price-taker and in the secondary regulation reserve market as a price-maker, in the context of the Iberian electricity system. The real-time use of the committed reserves is considered in the model formulation. The operation of the plants with the proposed methodology is compared to the ones that use an end of day storage of an empty reservoir or half of the storage capacity. Results show that the proposed methodology increases the maximum theoretical income in all the plants analysed both if they only participate in the day-ahead energy market and if they also participate in the secondary regulation service. It is also shown that the increase in the maximum theoretical income strongly depends on the size of the plant. In addition, it is proven that the end of day storages change notably in the new reserve-driven strategies of pumped-storage hydropower plants and that the proposed methodology is even more recommended if the secondary regulation service is considered.

Aggregators’ Optimal Bidding Strategy in Sequential Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Spot Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaolin Ayón

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a probabilistic optimization method that produces optimal bidding curves to be submitted by an aggregator to the day-ahead electricity market and the intraday market, considering the flexible demand of his customers (based in time dependent resources such as batteries and shiftable demand and taking into account the possible imbalance costs as well as the uncertainty of forecasts (market prices, demand, and renewable energy sources (RES generation. The optimization strategy aims to minimize the total cost of the traded energy over a whole day, taking into account the intertemporal constraints. The proposed formulation leads to the solution of different linear optimization problems, following the natural temporal sequence of electricity spot markets. Intertemporal constraints regarding time dependent resources are fulfilled through a scheduling process performed after the day-ahead market clearing. Each of the different problems is of moderate dimension and requires short computation times. The benefits of the proposed strategy are assessed comparing the payments done by an aggregator over a sample period of one year following different deterministic and probabilistic strategies. Results show that probabilistic strategy reports better benefits for aggregators participating in power markets.

A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jiang, Yuewen; Chen, Meisen; You, Shi

2017-01-01

In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase...... in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view...... of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO) is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle...

Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.K.; Moore, J.; Schneiderman, B.; Ho, T.; Olson, A.; Alagappan, L.; Chawla, K.; Toyama, N.; Zarnikau, J.

2016-01-01

We answer two policy questions: (1) what are the estimated merit-order effects of renewable energy in the California Independent System Operator’s (CAISO’s) day-ahead market (DAM) and real-time market (RTM)? and (2) what causes the hourly DAM and RTM prices to systematically diverge? The first question is timely and relevant because if the merit-order effect estimates are small, California’s renewable energy development is of limited help in cutting electricity consumers’ bills but also has a lesser adverse impact on the state’s investment incentive for natural-gas-fired generation. The second question is related to the efficient market hypothesis under which the hourly RTM and DAM prices tend to converge. Using a sample of about 21,000 hourly observations of CAISO market prices and their fundamental drivers during 12/12/2012–04/30/2015, we document statistically significant estimates (p-value≤0.01) for the DAM and RTM merit-order effects. This finding lends support to California’s adopted procurement process to provide sufficient investment incentives for natural-gas-fired generation. We document that the RTM-DAM price divergence partly depends on the CASIO’s day-ahead forecast errors for system loads and renewable energy. This finding suggests that improving the performance of the CAISO’s day-ahead forecasts can enhance trading efficiency in California’s DAM and RTM electricity markets. - Highlights: •Estimate the day-ahead and real-time merit-order effects of renewable energy in California. •Document statistically significant merit-order effects of solar and wind energy. •Document the difference between the day-ahead and real-time prices. •Attribute the price differences to forecast errors for load, solar and wind energy. •Discuss the evidence’s implications for California’s energy policy.

A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuewen Jiang

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (QPSO. Finally, the impacts of associated parameters on the separate trading and unified trading model are analyzed to verify the superiority of the proposed model and algorithm.

Customer response to day-ahead market hourly pricing: Choices and performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopper, Nicole; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan, Bernie

2006-01-01

Real-time pricing (RTP) has been advocated to address extreme price volatility and market power in electricity markets. This study of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation's largest customers analyzes their choices and performance in response to day-ahead, default-service RTP. Overall price response is modest: 119 customers are estimated to reduce their peak demand by about 10% at high prices. Manufacturing customers are most responsive with a price elasticity of 0.16, followed by government/education customers (0.11), while commercial/retail, healthcare and public works customers are, at present, relatively unresponsive. Within market segments, individual customer response varies significantly. (author)

Hourly price elasticity pattern of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market

OpenAIRE

Knaut, Andreas; Paulus, Simon

2016-01-01

System security in electricity markets relies crucially on the interaction between demand and supply over time. However, research on electricity markets has been mainly focusing on the supply side arguing that demand is rather inelastic. Assuming perfectly inelastic demand might lead to delusive statements regarding the price formation in electricity markets. In this article we quantify the short-run price elasticity of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market and show that demand is...

Predictive densities for day-ahead electricity prices using time-adaptive quantile regression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

2014-01-01

A large part of the decision-making problems actors of the power system are facing on a daily basis requires scenarios for day-ahead electricity market prices. These scenarios are most likely to be generated based on marginal predictive densities for such prices, then enhanced with a temporal...... dependence structure. A semi-parametric methodology for generating such densities is presented: it includes: (i) a time-adaptive quantile regression model for the 5%–95% quantiles; and (ii) a description of the distribution tails with exponential distributions. The forecasting skill of the proposed model...

Neural networks approach to forecast several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in deregulated market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mandal, Paras; Senjyu, Tomonobu [Department of Electrical and Electronics, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nagakami Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213 (Japan); Funabashi, Toshihisa [Meidensha Corporation, Tokyo 103-8515 (Japan)

2006-09-15

In daily power markets, forecasting electricity prices and loads are the most essential task and the basis for any decision making. An approach to predict the market behaviors is to use the historical prices, loads and other required information to forecast the future prices and loads. This paper introduces an approach for several hour ahead (1-6h) electricity price and load forecasting using an artificial intelligence method, such as a neural network model, which uses publicly available data from the NEMMCO web site to forecast electricity prices and loads for the Victorian electricity market. An approach of selection of similar days is proposed according to which the load and price curves are forecasted by using the information of the days being similar to that of the forecast day. A Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of the similar days. Two different ANN models, one for one to six hour ahead load forecasting and another for one to six hour ahead price forecasting have been proposed. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) results show a clear increasing trend with the increase in hour ahead load and price forecasting. The sample average of MAPEs for one hour ahead price forecasts is 9.75%. This figure increases to only 20.03% for six hour ahead predictions. Similarly, the one to six hour ahead load forecast errors (MAPE) range from 0.56% to 1.30% only. MAPE results show that several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in the deregulated Victorian market can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy. (author)

Neural networks approach to forecast several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in deregulated market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mandal, Paras; Senjyu, Tomonobu; Funabashi, Toshihisa

2006-01-01

In daily power markets, forecasting electricity prices and loads are the most essential task and the basis for any decision making. An approach to predict the market behaviors is to use the historical prices, loads and other required information to forecast the future prices and loads. This paper introduces an approach for several hour ahead (1-6 h) electricity price and load forecasting using an artificial intelligence method, such as a neural network model, which uses publicly available data from the NEMMCO web site to forecast electricity prices and loads for the Victorian electricity market. An approach of selection of similar days is proposed according to which the load and price curves are forecasted by using the information of the days being similar to that of the forecast day. A Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of the similar days. Two different ANN models, one for one to six hour ahead load forecasting and another for one to six hour ahead price forecasting have been proposed. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) results show a clear increasing trend with the increase in hour ahead load and price forecasting. The sample average of MAPEs for one hour ahead price forecasts is 9.75%. This figure increases to only 20.03% for six hour ahead predictions. Similarly, the one to six hour ahead load forecast errors (MAPE) range from 0.56% to 1.30% only. MAPE results show that several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in the deregulated Victorian market can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy

Real-time versus day-ahead market power in a hydro-based electricity market

OpenAIRE

Tangerås, Thomas P.; Mauritzen, Johannes

2014-01-01

We analyse in a theoretical framework the link between real-time and day-ahead market performance in a hydro-based and imperfectly competitive wholesale electricity market. Theoretical predictions of the model are tested on data from the Nordic power exchange, Nord Pool Spot (NPS).We reject the hypothesis that prices at NPS were at their competitive levels throughout the period under examination. The empirical approach uses equilibrium prices and quantities and does not rely on bid data nor o...

Incentive-based demand response programs designed by asset-light retail electricity providers for the day-ahead market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali; Faria, Pedro; Ramos, Sergio

2015-01-01

how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how...... to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also...... taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand....

Incorporating price-responsive customers in day-ahead scheduling of smart distribution networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazidi, Mohammadreza; Monsef, Hassan; Siano, Pierluigi

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Proposing a model for incorporating price-responsive customers in day-ahead scheduling of smart distribution networks; this model provides a win–win situation. • Introducing a risk management model based on a bi-level information-gap decision theory and recasting it into its equivalent single-level robust optimization problem using Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions. • Utilizing mixed-integer linear programing formulation that is efficiently solved by commercial optimization software. - Abstract: Demand response and real-time pricing of electricity are key factors in a smart grid as they can increase economic efficiency and technical performances of power grids. This paper focuses on incorporating price-responsive customers in day-ahead scheduling of smart distribution networks under a dynamic pricing environment. A novel method is proposed and formulated as a tractable mixed integer linear programming optimization problem whose objective is to find hourly sale prices offered to customers, transactions (purchase/sale) with the wholesale market, commitment of distribution generation units, dispatch of battery energy storage systems and planning of interruptible loads in a way that the profit of the distribution network operator is maximized while customers’ benefit is guaranteed. To hedge distribution network operator against financial risk arising from uncertainty of wholesale market prices, a risk management model based on a bi-level information-gap decision theory is proposed. The proposed bi-level problem is solved by recasting it into its equivalent single-level robust optimization problem using Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions. Performance of the proposed model is verified by applying it to a modified version of the IEEE 33-bus distribution test network. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.

Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafie-khah, M.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.

2011-01-01

Research highlights: → A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. → The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. → PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. → One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. → The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shafie-khah, M., E-mail: miadreza@gmail.co [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Moghaddam, M. Parsa, E-mail: parsa@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K., E-mail: aleslam@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2011-05-15

Research highlights: {yields} A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. {yields} The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. {yields} PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. {yields} One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. {yields} The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

Multi-objective parallel particle swarm optimization for day-ahead Vehicle-to-Grid scheduling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soares, Joao; Vale, Zita; Canizes, Bruno

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for multi-objective day-ahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering intensive use of distributed generation and Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G). The main focus is the application of weighted Pareto to a multi-objective parallel particle swarm approach aiming...... to solve the dual-objective V2G scheduling: minimizing total operation costs and maximizing V2G income. A realistic mathematical formulation, considering the network constraints and V2G charging and discharging efficiencies is presented and parallel computing is applied to the Pareto weights. AC power flow...

Incentive-based demand response programs designed by asset-light retail electricity providers for the day-ahead market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali; Faria, Pedro; Ramos, Sergio; Morais, Hugo; Vale, Zita

2015-01-01

Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand. - Highlights: • Asset-light electricity retail providers subject to financial risks. • Incentive-based demand response program to manage the financial risks. • Maximizing the payoff of electricity retail providers in day-ahead market. • Mixed integer nonlinear programming to manage the risks

Day-Ahead Natural Gas Demand Forecasting Using Optimized ABC-Based Neural Network with Sliding Window Technique: The Case Study of Regional Basis in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mustafa Akpinar

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The increase of energy consumption in the world is reflected in the consumption of natural gas. However, this increment requires additional investment. This effect leads imbalances in terms of demand forecasting, such as applying penalties in the case of error rates occurring beyond the acceptable limits. As the forecasting errors increase, penalties increase exponentially. Therefore, the optimal use of natural gas as a scarce resource is important. There are various demand forecast ranges for natural gas and the most difficult range among these demands is the day-ahead forecasting, since it is hard to implement and makes predictions with low error rates. The objective of this study is stabilizing gas tractions on day-ahead demand forecasting using low-consuming subscriber data for minimizing error using univariate artificial bee colony-based artificial neural networks (ANN-ABC. For this purpose, households and low-consuming commercial users’ four-year consumption data between the years of 2011–2014 are gathered in daily periods. Previous consumption values are used to forecast day-ahead consumption values with sliding window technique and other independent variables are not taken into account. Dataset is divided into two parts. First, three-year daily consumption values are used with a seven day window for training the networks, while the last year is used for the day-ahead demand forecasting. Results show that ANN-ABC is a strong, stable, and effective method with a low error rate of 14.9 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE for training utilizing MAPE with a univariate sliding window technique.

Decision support tool for Virtual Power Players: Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization applied to Day-ahead Vehicle-To-Grid Scheduling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soares, João; Valle, Zita; Morais, Hugo

2013-01-01

This paper presents a decision support Tool methodology to help virtual power players (VPPs) in the Smart Grid (SGs) context to solve the day-ahead energy ressource scheduling considering the intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) and Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G). The main focus is the application...... of a new hybrid method combing a particle swarm approach and a deterministic technique based on mixedinteger linear programming (MILP) to solve the day-ahead scheduling minimizing total operation costs from the aggregator point of view. A realistic mathematical formulation, considering the electric network...... constraints and V2G charging and discharging efficiencies is presented. Full AC power flow calculation is included in the hybrid method to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 1800 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance...

Day-Ahead Scheduling Considering Demand Response as a Frequency Control Resource

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Qing Bao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The development of advanced metering technologies makes demand response (DR able to provide fast response services, e.g., primary frequency control. It is recognized that DR can contribute to the primary frequency control like thermal generators. This paper proposes a day-ahead scheduling method that considers DR as a frequency control resource, so that the DR resources can be dispatched properly with other resources. In the proposed method, the objective of frequency control is realized by defining a frequency limit equation under a supposed contingency. The frequency response model is used to model the dynamics of system frequency. The nonlinear frequency limit equation is transformed to a linear arithmetic equation by piecewise linearization, so that the problem can be solved by mixed integer linear programming (MILP. Finally, the proposed method is verified on numerical examples.

Optimal bidding in Turkey day ahead electricity market for wind energy and pumped storage hydro power plant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ceyhun Yıldız

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In electrical grid; when the demand power increases energy prices increase, when the demand decreases energy prices decrease. For this reason; to increase the total daily income, it is required to shift generations to the hours that high demand power values occurred. Wind Power Plants (WPP have unstable and uncontrollable generation characteristic. For this reason, energy storage systems are needed to shift the generations of WPPs in time scale. In this study, four wind power plants (WPP which are tied to the Turkish interconnected grid and a pumped hydro storage power plant (PSPP that meets the energy storage requirement of these power plants are investigated in Turkey day ahead energy market. An optimization algorithm is developed using linear programming technique to maximize the day ahead market bids of these plants which are going to generate power together. When incomes and generations of the plants that are operated with optimization strategy is analyzed, it is seen that annual income increased by 2.737% compared with WPPs ‘s alone operation and generations are substantially shifted to the high demand power occurred hours.

Thermal energy storage for electricity-driven space heating in a day-ahead electricity market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pensini, Alessandro

2012-01-01

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) in a space heating (SH) application was investigated. The study aimed to determine the economic benefits of introducing TES into an electricity-driven SH system under a day-ahead electricity market. The performance of the TES was assessed by comparing the cost...... of electricity in a system with a TES unit to the case where no storage is in use and the entire heat requirement is fulfilled by purchasing electricity according to the actual load. The study had two goals: 1. Determining how the size – in terms of electricity input (Pmax) and energy capacity (Emax...

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

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Full Text Available ... your life Partner resources Subscribe To receive Breastfeeding email updates Enter email Submit Planning ahead From choosing the crib to ... Breastfeeding: The #First31 Days Subscribe To receive Breastfeeding email updates Enter email Submit All material contained on ...

A day-ahead market for electricity in Alberta : is there a case to be made?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fronimos, P.

2006-01-01

Following the success of the introduction of competition in several heavily regulated industries in the 1980s and 1990s, traditional utilities were broken up and markets were introduced for their respective services. Some of these markets evolved into complex structures with multiple sub-markets for installed capacity, energy, transmission and for all types of reserves. Electricity submarkets now operate in a similar manner in different timeframes comprising two settlement systems: the Day Ahead (DA) market, operating a day ahead of the actual generation and consumption of electricity and one that operates in real time, the Real-Time (RT) or Balancing market. This paper explored the case for a binding DA market for electricity in Alberta, by looking at the challenges facing the marketplace and examining how using a DA market would affect them. This paper hypothesized that a correctly designed and implemented, financially binding DA market would enhance the fidelity of the price signal in Alberta by providing an information rich environment for participants and the system operator. The paper defined and discussed both types of settlement systems. It then discussed the DA market in Alberta in terms of risk management, reliability, price fidelity and demand response. It was noted that some of the benefits of using a DA market could also be achieved by improvements to the existing market. Alberta faces several challenges, such as merit order instability and price volatility which are likely due to market design and operations rather than the inherent inability of a power exchange to address them. 31 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

Co-optimization of Energy and Demand-Side Reserves in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Surender Reddy, S.; Abhyankar, A. R.; Bijwe, P. R.

2015-04-01

This paper presents a new multi-objective day-ahead market clearing (DAMC) mechanism with demand-side reserves/demand response (DR) offers, considering realistic voltage-dependent load modeling. The paper proposes objectives such as social welfare maximization (SWM) including demand-side reserves, and load served error (LSE) minimization. In this paper, energy and demand-side reserves are cleared simultaneously through co-optimization process. The paper clearly brings out the unsuitability of conventional SWM for DAMC in the presence of voltage-dependent loads, due to reduction of load served (LS). Under such circumstances multi-objective DAMC with DR offers is essential. Multi-objective Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2+ (SPEA 2+) has been used to solve the optimization problem. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme is confirmed with results obtained from IEEE 30 bus system.

Day-ahead electricity prices forecasting by a modified CGSA technique and hybrid WT in LSSVM based scheme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shayeghi, H.; Ghasemi, A.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Presenting a hybrid CGSA-LSSVM scheme for price forecasting. • Considering uncertainties for filtering in input data and feature selection to improve efficiency. • Using DWT input featured LSSVM approach to classify next-week prices. • Used three real markets to illustrate performance of the proposed price forecasting model. - Abstract: At the present time, day-ahead electricity market is closely associated with other commodity markets such as fuel market and emission market. Under such an environment, day-ahead electricity price forecasting has become necessary for power producers and consumers in the current deregulated electricity markets. Seeking for more accurate price forecasting techniques, this paper proposes a new combination of a Feature Selection (FS) technique based mutual information (MI) technique and Wavelet Transform (WT) in this study. Moreover, in this paper a new modified version of Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) optimization based chaos theory, namely Chaotic Gravitational Search Algorithm (CGSA) is developed to find the optimal parameters of Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) to predict electricity prices. The performance and price forecast accuracy of the proposed technique is assessed by means of real data from Iran’s, Ontario’s and Spain’s price markets. The simulation results from numerical tables and figures in different cases show that the proposed technique increases electricity price market forecasting accuracy than the other classical and heretical methods in the scientific researches

Feedback, competition and stochasticity in a day ahead electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giabardo, Paolo; Zugno, Marco; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

2010-01-01

Major recent changes in electricity markets relate to the process for their deregulation, along with increasing participation of renewable (stochastic) generation e.g. wind power. Our general objective is to model how feedback, competition and stochasticity (on the production side) interact in electricity markets, and eventually assess what their effects are on both the participants and the society. For this, day ahead electricity markets are modeled as dynamic closed loop systems, in which the feedback signal is the market price. In parallel, the Cournot competition model is considered. Mixed portfolios with significant share of renewable energy are based on stochastic threshold cost functions. Regarding trading strategies, it is assumed that generators are looking at optimizing their individual profits. The point of view of the society is addressed by analyzing market behavior and stability. The performed simulations show the beneficial effects of employing long term bidding strategies for both generators and society. Sensitivity analyses are performed in order to evaluate the effects of demand elasticity. It is shown that increase in demand elasticity reduces the possibility for the generators to exploit their market power. Furthermore, the results suggest that introduction of wind power generation in the market is beneficial both for the generators and the society.

Feedback, competition and stochasticity in a day ahead electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giabardo, Paolo; Zugno, Marco; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik [DTU Informatics, Technical University of Denmark, Richard Petersens Plads 305, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)

2010-03-15

Major recent changes in electricity markets relate to the process for their deregulation, along with increasing participation of renewable (stochastic) generation e.g. wind power. Our general objective is to model how feedback, competition and stochasticity (on the production side) interact in electricity markets, and eventually assess what their effects are on both the participants and the society. For this, day ahead electricity markets are modeled as dynamic closed loop systems, in which the feedback signal is the market price. In parallel, the Cournot competition model is considered. Mixed portfolios with significant share of renewable energy are based on stochastic threshold cost functions. Regarding trading strategies, it is assumed that generators are looking at optimizing their individual profits. The point of view of the society is addressed by analyzing market behavior and stability. The performed simulations show the beneficial effects of employing long term bidding strategies for both generators and society. Sensitivity analyses are performed in order to evaluate the effects of demand elasticity. It is shown that increase in demand elasticity reduces the possibility for the generators to exploit their market power. Furthermore, the results suggest that introduction of wind power generation in the market is beneficial both for the generators and the society. (author)

Optimal Day-ahead Charging Scheduling of Electric Vehicles through an Aggregative Game Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei; Huang, Shaojun

2017-01-01

The electric vehicle (EV) market has been growing rapidly around the world. With large scale deployment of EVs in power systems, both the grid and EV owners will benefit if the flexible demand of EV charging is properly managed through the electricity market. When EV charging demand is considerable...... in a grid, it will impact spot prices in the electricity market and consequently influence the charging scheduling itself. The interaction between the spot prices and the EV demand needs to be considered in the EV charging scheduling, otherwise it will lead to a higher charging cost. A day-ahead EV charging...... scheduling based on an aggregative game model is proposed in this paper. The impacts of the EV demand on the electricity prices are formulated with the game model in the scheduling considering possible actions of other EVs. The existence and uniqueness of the pure strategy Nash equilibrium are proved...

Assessment of the Impact of Stochastic Day-Ahead SCUC on Economic and Reliability Metrics at Multiple Timescales: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, H.; Ela, E.; Krad, I.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Ibanez, E.; Gao, W.

2015-03-01

This paper incorporates the stochastic day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment (DASCUC) within a multi-timescale, multi-scheduling application with commitment, dispatch, and automatic generation control. The stochastic DASCUC is solved using a progressive hedging algorithm with constrained ordinal optimization to accelerate the individual scenario solution. Sensitivity studies are performed in the RTS-96 system, and the results show how this new scheduling application would impact costs and reliability with a closer representation of timescales of system operations in practice.

A Modified Feature Selection and Artificial Neural Network-Based Day-Ahead Load Forecasting Model for a Smart Grid

OpenAIRE

Ahmad, Ashfaq; Javaid, Nadeem; Alrajeh, Nabil; Khan, Zahoor; Qasim, Umar; Khan, Abid

2015-01-01

In the operation of a smart grid (SG), day-ahead load forecasting (DLF) is an important task. The SG can enhance the management of its conventional and renewable resources with a more accurate DLF model. However, DLF model development is highly challenging due to the non-linear characteristics of load time series in SGs. In the literature, DLF models do exist; however, these models trade off between execution time and forecast accuracy. The newly-proposed DLF model will be able to accurately ...

Two-stage stochastic day-ahead optimal resource scheduling in a distribution network with intensive use of distributed energy resources

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sousa, Tiago; Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Morais, Hugo

2015-01-01

The integration of renewable sources and electric vehicles will introduce new uncertainties to the optimal resource scheduling, namely at the distribution level. These uncertainties are mainly originated by the power generated by renewables sources and by the electric vehicles charge requirements....... This paper proposes a two-state stochastic programming approach to solve the day-ahead optimal resource scheduling problem. The case study considers a 33-bus distribution network with 66 distributed generation units and 1000 electric vehicles....

Generators' bidding behavior in the NYISO day-ahead wholesale electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Ning

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a statistical and econometric model to analyze the generators' bidding behavior in the NYISO day-ahead wholesale electricity market. The generator level bidding data show very strong persistence in generators' grouping choices over time. Using dynamic random effect ordered probit model, we find that persistence is characterized by positive state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence is more important than unobserved heterogeneity. The finding of true state dependence suggests a scope for economic policy intervention. If NYISO can implement an effective policy to switch generators from higher price groups to lower price groups, the effect is likely to be lasting. As a result, the market price can be lowered in the long-run. Generators' offered capacity is estimated by a two-stage sample selection model. The estimated results show that generators in higher-priced groups tend to withhold their capacity strategically to push up market prices. It further confirms the importance of an effective policy to turn generators into lower price groups in order to mitigate unexpected price spikes. The simulated market prices based on our estimated aggregate supply curve can replicate most volatility of actual DA market prices. Applying our models to different demand assumptions, we find that demand conditions can affect market prices significantly. It validates the importance of introducing demand side management during the restructure of electricity industry. (author)

Modeling the transient security constraints of natural gas network in day-ahead power system scheduling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Jingwei; Zhang, Ning; Kang, Chongqing

2017-01-01

The rapid deployment of gas-fired generating units makes the power system more vulnerable to failures in the natural gas system. To reduce the risk of gas system failure and to guarantee the security of power system operation, it is necessary to take the security constraints of natural gas...... accurately, they are hard to be embedded into the power system scheduling model, which consists of algebraic equations and inequations. This paper addresses this dilemma by proposing an algebraic transient model of natural gas network which is similar to the branch-node model of power network. Based...... pipelines into account in the day-ahead power generation scheduling model. However, the minute- and hour-level dynamic characteristics of gas systems prevents an accurate decision-making simply with the steady-state gas flow model. Although the partial differential equations depict the dynamics of gas flow...

A Modified Feature Selection and Artificial Neural Network-Based Day-Ahead Load Forecasting Model for a Smart Grid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashfaq Ahmad

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In the operation of a smart grid (SG, day-ahead load forecasting (DLF is an important task. The SG can enhance the management of its conventional and renewable resources with a more accurate DLF model. However, DLF model development is highly challenging due to the non-linear characteristics of load time series in SGs. In the literature, DLF models do exist; however, these models trade off between execution time and forecast accuracy. The newly-proposed DLF model will be able to accurately predict the load of the next day with a fair enough execution time. Our proposed model consists of three modules; the data preparation module, feature selection and the forecast module. The first module makes the historical load curve compatible with the feature selection module. The second module removes redundant and irrelevant features from the input data. The third module, which consists of an artificial neural network (ANN, predicts future load on the basis of selected features. Moreover, the forecast module uses a sigmoid function for activation and a multi-variate auto-regressive model for weight updating during the training process. Simulations are conducted in MATLAB to validate the performance of our newly-proposed DLF model in terms of accuracy and execution time. Results show that our proposed modified feature selection and modified ANN (m(FS + ANN-based model for SGs is able to capture the non-linearity(ies in the history load curve with 97 . 11 % accuracy. Moreover, this accuracy is achieved at the cost of a fair enough execution time, i.e., we have decreased the average execution time of the existing FS + ANN-based model by 38 . 50 % .

Collaborative Optimal Pricing and Day-Ahead and Intra-Day Integrative Dispatch of the Active Distribution Network with Multi-Type Active Loads

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chong Chen

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In order to better handle the new features that emerge at both ends of supply and demand, new measures are constantly being introduced, such as demand-side management (DSM and prediction of uncertain output and load. However, the existing DSM strategies, like real-time price (RTP, and dispatch methods are optimized separately, and response models of active loads, such as the interruptible load (IL, are still imperfect, which make it difficult for the active distribution network (ADN to achieve global optimal operation. Therefore, to better manage active loads, the response characteristics including both the response time and the responsibility and compensation model of IL for cluster users, and the real-time demand response model for price based load, were analyzed and established. Then, a collaborative optimization strategy of RTP and optimal dispatch of ADN was proposed, which can realize an economical operation based on mutual benefit and win-win mode of supply and demand sides. Finally, the day-ahead and intra-day integrative dispatch model using different time-scale prediction data was established, which can achieve longer-term optimization while reducing the impact of prediction errors on the dispatch results. With numerical simulations, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed strategy were verified.

Demand side management in a day-ahead wholesale market: A comparison of industrial & social welfare approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Bo; Farid, Amro M.; Youcef-Toumi, Kamal

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We compare two demand side management in a day-ahead electricity wholesale market. • We develop and reconcile social welfare & industrial DSM mathematical models. • We show the industrial netload has an additional forecast quantity of baseline. • We analytically and numerically show the model equivalence with accurate baseline. • We numerically demonstrate the baseline errors lead to higher and costlier dispatch. - Abstract: The intermittent nature of renewable energy has been discussed in the context of the operational challenges that it brings to electrical grid reliability. Demand side management (DSM) with its ability to allow customers to adjust electricity consumption in response to market signals has often been recognized as an efficient way to mitigate the variable effects of renewable energy as well as to increase system efficiency and reduce system costs. However, the academic & industrial literature have taken divergent approaches to DSM implementation. While the popular approach among academia adopts a social welfare maximization formulation, the industrial practice compensates customers according to their load reduction from a predefined electricity consumption baseline that would have occurred without DSM. This paper rigorously compares these two different approaches in a day-ahead wholesale market context analytically and in a test case using the same system configuration and mathematical formalism. The comparison of the two models showed that a proper reconciliation of the two models might make them mitigate the stochastic netload in fundamentally the same way, but only under very specific conditions which are rarely met in practice. While the social welfare model uses a stochastic net load composed of two terms, the industrial DSM model uses a stochastic net load composed of three terms including the additional baseline term. DSM participants are likely to manipulate the baseline in order to receive greater financial

Day-ahead resource scheduling of a renewable energy based virtual power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamani, Ali Ghahgharaee; Zakariazadeh, Alireza; Jadid, Shahram

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Simultaneous energy and reserve scheduling of a VPP. • Aggregate uncertainties of electricity prices, renewable generation and load demand. • Develop a stochastic scheduling model using the point estimate method. - Abstract: The evolution of energy markets is accelerating in the direction of a greater reliance upon distributed energy resources (DERs). To manage this increasing two-way complexity, virtual power plants (VPPs) are being deployed today all over the world. In this paper, a probabilistic model for optimal day ahead scheduling of electrical and thermal energy resources in a VPP is proposed where participation of energy storage systems and demand response programs (DRPs) are also taken into account. In the proposed model, energy and reserve is simultaneously scheduled considering the uncertainties of market prices, electrical demand and intermittent renewable power generation. The Point Estimate Method (PEM) is applied in order to model the uncertainties of VPP’s scheduling problem. Moreover, the optimal reserve scheduling of VPP is presented which efficiently decreases VPP’s risk facing the unexpected fluctuations of uncertain parameters at the power delivery time. The results demonstrated that implementation of demand response programs (DRPs) would decrease total operation costs of VPP as well as its dependency on the upstream network.

New bidding strategy formulation for day-ahead energy and reserve markets based on evolutionary programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Attaviriyanupap, Pathom; Kita, Hiroyuki; Tanaka, Eiichi; Hasegawa, Jun

2005-01-01

In this paper, a new bidding strategy for a day-ahead market is formulated. The proposed algorithm is developed from the viewpoint of a generation company wishing to maximize a profit as a participant in the deregulated power and reserve markets. Separate power and reserve markets are considered, both are operated by clearing price auction system. The optimal bidding parameters for both markets are determined by solving an optimization problem that takes unit commitment constraints such as generating limits and unit minimum up/down time constraints into account. This is a non-convex and non-differentiable which is difficult to solve by traditional optimization techniques. In this paper, evolutionary programming is used to solve the problem. The algorithm is applied to both single-sided and double-sided auctions, numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme compared with those obtained from a sequential quadratic programming. (author)

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers in the Day-ahead Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaolin Liu

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Wind Power Producers (WPPs seek to maximize profit and minimize the imbalance costs when bidding into the day-ahead market, but uncertainties in the hourly available wind and forecasting errors make the bidding risky. This paper assumes that hourly wind power output given by the forecast follows a normal distribution, and proposes three different bidding strategies, i.e., the expected profit-maximization strategy (EPS, the chance-constrained programming-based strategy (CPS and the multi-objective bidding strategy (ECPS. Analytical solutions under the three strategies are obtained. Comparisons among the three strategies are conducted on a hypothetical wind farm which follows the Spanish market rules. Results show that bid under the EPS is highly dependent on market clearing price, imbalance prices, and also the mean value and standard deviation of wind forecast, and that bid under the CPS is largely driven by risk parameters and the mean value and standard deviation of the wind forecast. The ECPS combining both EPS and CPS tends to choose a compromise bid. Furthermore, the ECPS can effectively control the tradeoff between expected profit and target profit for WPPs operating in volatile electricity markets.

Day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch of wind integrated power system considering demand response of residential hybrid energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Yibo; Xu, Jian; Sun, Yuanzhang; Wei, Congying; Wang, Jing; Ke, Deping; Li, Xiong; Yang, Jun; Peng, Xiaotao; Tang, Bowen

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Improving the utilization of wind power by the demand response of residential hybrid energy system. • An optimal scheduling of home energy management system integrating micro-CHP. • The scattered response capability of consumers is aggregated by demand bidding curve. • A stochastic day-ahead economic dispatch model considering demand response and wind power. - Abstract: As the installed capacity of wind power is growing, the stochastic variability of wind power leads to the mismatch of demand and generated power. Employing the regulating capability of demand to improve the utilization of wind power has become a new research direction. Meanwhile, the micro combined heat and power (micro-CHP) allows residential consumers to choose whether generating electricity by themselves or purchasing from the utility company, which forms a residential hybrid energy system. However, the impact of the demand response with hybrid energy system contained micro-CHP on the large-scale wind power utilization has not been analyzed quantitatively. This paper proposes an operation optimization model of the residential hybrid energy system based on price response, integrating micro-CHP and smart appliances intelligently. Moreover, a novel load aggregation method is adopted to centralize scattered response capability of residential load. At the power grid level, a day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch model considering demand response and wind power is constructed. Furthermore, simulation is conducted respectively on the modified 6-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system. The results show that with the method proposed, the wind power curtailment of the system decreases by 78% in 6-bus system. In the meantime, the energy costs of residential consumers and the operating costs of the power system reduced by 10.7% and 11.7% in 118-bus system, respectively.

On Setting Day-Ahead Equity Trading Risk Limits: VaR Prediction at Market Close or Open?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana-Maria Fuertes

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the information content of the ex post overnight return for one-day-ahead equity Value-at-Risk (VaR forecasting. To do so, we deploy a univariate VaR modeling approach that constructs the forecast at market open and, accordingly, exploits the available overnight close-to-open price variation. The benchmark is the bivariate VaR modeling approach proposed by Ahoniemi et al. that constructs the forecast at the market close instead and, accordingly, it models separately the daytime and overnight return processes and their covariance. For a small cap portfolio, the bivariate VaR approach affords superior predictive ability than the ex post overnight VaR approach whereas for a large cap portfolio the results are reversed. The contrast indicates that price discovery at the market open is less efficient for small capitalization, thinly traded stocks.

On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nowotarski, Jakub; Weron, Rafał

2016-01-01

In day-ahead electricity price forecasting (EPF) the daily and weekly seasonalities are always taken into account, but the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) is believed to add unnecessary complexity to the already parameter-rich models and is generally ignored. Conducting an extensive empirical study involving state-of-the-art time series models we show that (i) decomposing a series of electricity prices into a LTSC and a stochastic component, (ii) modeling them independently and (iii) combining their forecasts can bring – contrary to a common belief – an accuracy gain compared to an approach in which a given time series model is calibrated to the prices themselves. - Highlights: • A new class of Seasonal Component AutoRegressive (SCAR) models is introduced. • Electricity prices are decomposed into a trend-seasonal and a stochastic component. • Both components are modeled independently, their forecasts are combined. • Significant accuracy gains can be achieved compared to commonly used approaches.

Probability-Weighted LMP and RCP for Day-Ahead Energy Markets using Stochastic Security-Constrained Unit Commitment: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ela, E.; O' Malley, M.

2012-06-01

Variable renewable generation resources are increasing their penetration on electric power grids. These resources have weather-driven fuel sources that vary on different time scales and are difficult to predict in advance. These characteristics create challenges for system operators managing the load balance on different timescales. Research is looking into new operational techniques and strategies that show great promise on facilitating greater integration of variable resources. Stochastic Security-Constrained Unit Commitment models are one strategy that has been discussed in literature and shows great benefit. However, it is rarely used outside the research community due to its computational limits and difficulties integrating with electricity markets. This paper discusses how it can be integrated into day-ahead energy markets and especially on what pricing schemes should be used to ensure an efficient and fair market.

The Future Days

OpenAIRE

Cerezo Rodríguez, Carlos

2014-01-01

In this memorandum it will be read all the documentation related to the Final Project Degree of Carlos Cerezo Rodríguez, The Future Days. The objective of this project has been to realise a mini-game (in form of interactive animation in Flash). So that, it will rest prepared for his posterior upload to websites that offer these services. As it will be appreciated in the writing, the process of construction of the project has been made through a phase of planning and preproduction, a phase of ...

Computational Intelligence Techniques Applied to the Day Ahead PV Output Power Forecast: PHANN, SNO and Mixed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emanuele Ogliari

2018-06-01

Full Text Available An accurate forecast of the exploitable energy from Renewable Energy Sources is extremely important for the stability issues of the electric grid and the reliability of the bidding markets. This paper presents a comparison among different forecasting methods of the photovoltaic output power introducing a new method that mixes some peculiarities of the others: the Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network and the five parameters model estimated by the Social Network Optimization. In particular, the day-ahead forecasts evaluated against real data measured for two years in an existing photovoltaic plant located in Milan, Italy, are compared by means both new and the most common error indicators. Results reported in this work show the best forecasting capability of the new “mixed method” which scored the best forecast skill and Enveloped Mean Absolute Error on a yearly basis (47% and 24.67%, respectively.

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... and jobs View all pages in this section Home It's Only Natural Planning ahead It's Only Natural Planning ahead Breastfeeding and baby basics Making breastfeeding work for you Addressing breastfeeding myths Overcoming challenges Finding ...

On the effectiveness of the anti-gaming policy between the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets in The Netherlands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boogert, A. [Essent Energy Trading (Netherlands); Dupont, D. [University of Twente (Netherlands). School of Business, Public Administration and Technology

2005-09-01

In the paper, we study the linkage between two related markets for electricity in The Netherlands: the day-ahead market and the real-time market. The Dutch regulator wants to prevent trading across these two markets and has set up a dual pricing system for this purpose. In this paper, we test the effectiveness of this policy by studying the ex post profitability of trading strategies spanning the two markets over various time segments. Our results show that profits generated by these strategies are rarely positive on average and always characterized by very large potential losses, which dwarf the mean profit when the latter is positive. (author)

On the effectiveness of the anti-gaming policy between the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets in The Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boogert, A.; Dupont, D.

2005-01-01

In the paper, we study the linkage between two related markets for electricity in The Netherlands: the day-ahead market and the real-time market. The Dutch regulator wants to prevent trading across these two markets and has set up a dual pricing system for this purpose. In this paper, we test the effectiveness of this policy by studying the ex post profitability of trading strategies spanning the two markets over various time segments. Our results show that profits generated by these strategies are rarely positive on average and always characterized by very large potential losses, which dwarf the mean profit when the latter is positive. (author)

Inexact stochastic risk-aversion optimal day-ahead dispatch model for electricity system management with wind power under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ji, Ling; Huang, Guo-He; Huang, Lu-Cheng; Xie, Yu-Lei; Niu, Dong-Xiao

2016-01-01

High penetration of wind power generation and deregulated electricity market brings a great challenge to the electricity system operators. It is crucial to make optimal strategy among various generation units and spinning reserve for supporting the system safety operation. By integrating interval two-stage programming and stochastic robust programming, this paper proposes a novel robust model for day-ahead dispatch and risk-aversion management under uncertainties. In the proposed model, the uncertainties are expressed as interval values with different scenario probability. The proposed method requires low computation, and still retains the complete information. A case study is to validate the effectiveness of this approach. Facing the uncertainties of future demand and electricity price, the system operators need to make optimal dispatch strategy for thermal power units and wind turbine, and arrange proper spinning reserve and flexible demand response program to mitigate wind power forecasting error. The optimal strategies provide the system operators with better trade-off between the maximum benefits and the minimum system risk. In additional, two different market rules are compared. The results show that extra financial penalty for the wind power dispatch deviation is another efficient way to enhance the risk consciousness of decision makers and lead to more conservative strategy. - Highlights: • An inexact two-stage stochastic robust programming model for electricity system with wind power penetration. • Uncertainties expressed as discrete intervals and probability distributions. • Demand response program was introduced to adjust the deviation in real-time market. • Financial penalty for imbalance risk from wind power generation was evaluated.

South African energy - the way ahead

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-01-01

South African energy - the way ahead was the theme of a conference organised by the South African National Committee of the World Energy Conference (SANCWEC). Papers were presented on the following topics: energy and coal; trends in world energy consumption; the role of nuclear energy in the supply of electricity in South Africa; synfuel; the government in energy affairs; the impact of energy on economic growth in South Africa; future energy demands, and the future of energy in South Africa. Separate abstracts were prepared for two of the papers presented. The remaining papers were considered outside the subject scope of INIS

Learning to stay ahead of time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Staunæs, Dorthe; Raffnsøe, Sverre

2014-01-01

In the context of an ongoing change, management is required to take the form of a leadership that must be reignited over and over again. The article examines a new art of leadership that may be viewed as an attempt to keep up with these challenges and stay ahead of time. It emerges from...... a pilgrimage leadership learning laboratory on the road to Santiago de la Compostela. This moving lab creates situations of extraordinary intensity that border on hyperreality and force the leader to find him/herself anew on the verge of him/herself. Conceived as pilgrimage, leadership moves ahead of time...... as it reaches into and anticipates a future still unknown. In this setting, anticipatory affects and the virtual take up a predominant role. As it emerges here, leadership distinguishes itself not only from leadership in the traditional sense, but also from management and governmentality....

The Future Organization of Danish Electricity Market for Integrating DERs - a View of FlexPower Project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Yang; Zhang, Chunyu; Ding, Yi

2013-01-01

in mobilizing small-scale DERs to participate in the existing electricity market, is proposed in this paper to cope with the day-ahead, intra-day and regulating power market. Possible future organizations of different time-scale markets are also introduced and discussed with the precise roles...

Influence of feasibility constrains on the bidding strategy selection in a day-ahead electricity market session

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borghetti, Alberto; Massucco, Stefano; Silvestro, Federico

2009-01-01

Large part of liberalized electricity markets, including the Italian one, features an auction mechanism, called day-ahead energy market, which matches producers' and buyers' simple bids, consisting of energy quantity and price pairs. The match is achieved by a merit-order economic dispatch procedure independently applied for each of the hours of the following day. Power plants operation should, however, take into account several technical constraints, such as maximum and minimum production bounds, ramp constraints and minimum up and downs times, as well as no-load and startup costs. The presence of these constraints forces to adjust the scheduling provided by the market in order to obtain a feasible scheduling. The paper presents an analysis of the possibility and the limits of taking into account the power plants technical constraints in the bidding strategy selection procedure of generating companies (Gencos). The analysis is carried out by using a computer procedure based both on a simple static game-theory approach and on a cost-minimization unit-commitment algorithm. For illustrative purposes, we present the results obtained for a system with three Gencos, each owning several power plants, trying to model the bidding behaviour of every generator in the system. This approach, although complex from the computational point of view, allows an analysis of both price and quantity bidding strategies and appears to be applicable to markets having different rules and features. (author)

Straight Ahead in Microgravity

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, S. J.; Vanya, R. D.; Clement, G.

2014-01-01

This joint ESA-NASA study will address adaptive changes in spatial orientation related to the subjective straight ahead, and the use of a vibrotactile sensory aid to reduce perceptual errors. The study will be conducted before and after long-duration expeditions to the International Space Station (ISS) to examine how spatial processing of target location is altered following exposure to microgravity. This project specifically addresses the sensorimotor research gap "What are the changes in sensorimotor function over the course of a mission?" Six ISS crewmembers will be requested to participate in three preflight sessions (between 120 and 60 days prior to launch) and then three postflight sessions on R+0/1 day, R+4 +/-2 days, and R+8 +/-2 days. The three specific aims include: (a) fixation of actual and imagined target locations at different distances; (b) directed eye and arm movements along different spatial reference frames; and (c) the vestibulo-ocular reflex during translation motion with fixation targets at different distances. These measures will be compared between upright and tilted conditions. Measures will then be compared with and without a vibrotactile sensory aid that indicates how far one has tilted relative to the straight-ahead direction. The flight study was been approved by the medical review boards and will be implemented in the upcoming Informed Crew Briefings to solicit flight subject participation. Preliminary data has been recorded on 6 subjects during parabolic flight to examine the spatial coding of eye movements during roll tilt relative to perceived orientations while free-floating during the microgravity phase of parabolic flight or during head tilt in normal gravity. Binocular videographic recordings obtained in darkness allowed us to quantify the mean deviations in gaze trajectories along both horizontal and vertical coordinates relative to the aircraft and head orientations. During some parabolas, a vibrotactile sensory aid provided

A SOM clustering pattern sequence-based next symbol prediction method for day-ahead direct electricity load and price forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin, Cheng Hao; Pok, Gouchol; Lee, Yongmi; Park, Hyun-Woo; Kim, Kwang Deuk; Yun, Unil; Ryu, Keun Ho

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A novel pattern sequence-based direct time series forecasting method was proposed. • Due to the use of SOM’s topology preserving property, only SOM can be applied. • SCPSNSP only deals with the cluster patterns not each specific time series value. • SCPSNSP performs better than recently developed forecasting algorithms. - Abstract: In this paper, we propose a new day-ahead direct time series forecasting method for competitive electricity markets based on clustering and next symbol prediction. In the clustering step, pattern sequence and their topology relations are obtained from self organizing map time series clustering. In the next symbol prediction step, with each cluster label in the pattern sequence represented as a pair of its topologically identical coordinates, artificial neural network is used to predict the topological coordinates of next day by training the relationship between previous daily pattern sequence and its next day pattern. According to the obtained topology relations, the nearest nonzero hits pattern is assigned to next day so that the whole time series values can be directly forecasted from the assigned cluster pattern. The proposed method was evaluated on Spanish, Australian and New York electricity markets and compared with PSF and some of the most recently published forecasting methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the best forecasting methods at least 3.64%

Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Modeling Approach Based on SCADA and Meteorological Information, and Evaluating the Impact of Input-Data Dependency on Forecasting Accuracy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dehua Zheng

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The power generated by wind generators is usually associated with uncertainties, due to the intermittency of wind speed and other weather variables. This creates a big challenge for transmission system operators (TSOs and distribution system operators (DSOs in terms of connecting, controlling and managing power networks with high-penetration wind energy. Hence, in these power networks, accurate wind power forecasts are essential for their reliable and efficient operation. They support TSOs and DSOs in enhancing the control and management of the power network. In this paper, a novel two-stage hybrid approach based on the combination of the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT, genetic algorithm (GA and artificial neural network (ANN is proposed for day-ahead wind power forecasting. The approach is composed of two stages. The first stage utilizes numerical weather prediction (NWP meteorological information to predict wind speed at the exact site of the wind farm. The second stage maps actual wind speed vs. power characteristics recorded by SCADA. Then, the wind speed forecast in the first stage for the future day is fed to the second stage to predict the future day’s wind power. Comparative selection of input-data parameter sets for the forecasting model and impact analysis of input-data dependency on forecasting accuracy have also been studied. The proposed approach achieves significant forecasting accuracy improvement compared with three other artificial intelligence-based forecasting approaches and a benchmark model using the smart persistence method.

Ophthalmic public health; the way ahead.

Science.gov (United States)

Heidary, F; Rahimi, A; Gharebaghi, R

2012-01-01

Visual sciences have been progressing quickly in recent decades through globalization phenomenon. An enormous change has taken place in ocular health issues, however, there are various problems facing ophthalmic public health worldwide. In the previous years, the World Health Organization and the International Agency for the Prevention of Blindness in partnership launched the global initiative to eradicate avoidable blindness by the year 2020, VISION 2020 the Right to Sight. It has concentrated on the prevention of blindness disability and recognized a health issue-sight as a human right. In view of challenges ahead of visual sciences, close collaboration between international agencies at the global level to implement new strategies and monitor the progress will be mandatory. In these circumstances non-governmental organizations should not be neglected. World Sight Day 2012 would be a great opportunity to be a focus on importance of visual impairment as an important public health issue and discovering new challenges ahead.

Optimal day-ahead wind-thermal unit commitment considering statistical and predicted features of wind speeds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Yanan; Dong, Jizhe; Ding, Lijuan

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A day–ahead wind–thermal unit commitment model is presented. • Wind speed transfer matrix is formed to depict the sequential wind features. • Spinning reserve setting considering wind power accuracy and variation is proposed. • Verified study is performed to check the correctness of the program. - Abstract: The increasing penetration of intermittent wind power affects the secure operation of power systems and leads to a requirement of robust and economic generation scheduling. This paper presents an optimal day–ahead wind–thermal generation scheduling method that considers the statistical and predicted features of wind speeds. In this method, the statistical analysis of historical wind data, which represents the local wind regime, is first implemented. Then, according to the statistical results and the predicted wind power, the spinning reserve requirements for the scheduling period are calculated. Based on the calculated spinning reserve requirements, the wind–thermal generation scheduling is finally conducted. To validate the program, a verified study is performed on a test system. Then, numerical studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method are conducted.

Optimal operational strategies for a day-ahead electricity market in the presence of market power using multi-objective evolutionary algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigo, Deepal

2007-12-01

This dissertation introduces a novel approach for optimally operating a day-ahead electricity market not only by economically dispatching the generation resources but also by minimizing the influences of market manipulation attempts by the individual generator-owning companies while ensuring that the power system constraints are not violated. Since economic operation of the market conflicts with the individual profit maximization tactics such as market manipulation by generator-owning companies, a methodology that is capable of simultaneously optimizing these two competing objectives has to be selected. Although numerous previous studies have been undertaken on the economic operation of day-ahead markets and other independent studies have been conducted on the mitigation of market power, the operation of a day-ahead electricity market considering these two conflicting objectives simultaneously has not been undertaken previously. These facts provided the incentive and the novelty for this study. A literature survey revealed that many of the traditional solution algorithms convert multi-objective functions into either a single-objective function using weighting schemas or undertake optimization of one function at a time. Hence, these approaches do not truly optimize the multi-objectives concurrently. Due to these inherent deficiencies of the traditional algorithms, the use of alternative non-traditional solution algorithms for such problems has become popular and widely used. Of these, multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEA) have received wide acceptance due to their solution quality and robustness. In the present research, three distinct algorithms were considered: a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA II), a multi-objective tabu search algorithm (MOTS) and a hybrid of multi-objective tabu search and genetic algorithm (MOTS/GA). The accuracy and quality of the results from these algorithms for applications similar to the problem investigated here

Looking ahead

CERN Multimedia

2010-01-01

As I write this, I’m on my way to India for a meeting of the funding agencies for large colliders (FALC), and then on to Korea where I’ll be discussing Korea’s role in our increasingly globalized field. It’s a fitting start to 2010, and to this message, in which I’d like to take a look forward to what we can expect in the year ahead. Enlargement is certainly an issue we’ll be hearing more about this year, with fact-finding missions to the five states that have applied for membership, several countries expressing an interest in associate status and Council due to reach a conclusion on the recommendations of the working group on enlargement. Twelve months from now, CERN will be a different organisation to what it is today. It will have evolved into a form well adapted to carry Europe’s particle-physics banner, coordinating Europe’s involvement in future projects outside the European region while continuing to welcome ...

Day-Ahead Coordination of Vehicle-to-Grid Operation and Wind Power in Security Constraints Unit Commitment (SCUC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Javad Abdollahi

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper security constraints unit commitment (SCUC in the presence of wind power resources and electrical vehicles to grid is presented. SCUC operation prepare an optimal time table for generation unit commitment in order to maximize security, minimize operation cost and satisfy the constraints of networks and units in a period of time, as one of the most important research interest in power systems. Today, the relationship between power network and energy storage systems is interested for many researchers and network operators. Using Electrical Vehicles (PEVs and wind power for energy production is one of the newest proposed methods for replacing fossil fuels.One of the effective strategies for analyzing of the effects of Vehicle 2 Grid (V2G and wind power in optimal operation of generation is running of SCUC for power systems that are equipped with V2G and wind power resources. In this paper, game theory method is employed for deterministic solution of day-ahead unit commitment with considering security constraints in the simultaneous presence of V2G and wind power units. This problem for two scenarios of grid-controlled mode and consumer-controlled mode in three different days with light, medium and heavy load profiles is analyzed. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the presence of V2G and wind power for decreasing of generation cost and improving operation indices of power systems.

Security-constrained self-scheduling of generation companies in day-ahead electricity markets considering financial risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Vahidinasab, Vahid

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► A security-constrained self-scheduling is presented. ► The proposed framework takes into account the uncertainty of the predicted market prices. ► We model the risk and profit tradeoff of a GENCO based on an efficient multi-objective model. ► Unit commitment and inter-temporal constraints of generators are considered in an MIP model. ► Simulation results are presented on the IEEE 30-bus and IEEE 118-bus test systems. - Abstract: In this paper, a new security-constrained self-scheduling framework incorporating the transmission flow limits in both steady state conditions and post-contingent states is presented to produce efficient bidding strategy for generation companies (GENCOs) in day-ahead electricity markets. Moreover, the proposed framework takes into account the uncertainty of the predicted market prices and models the risk and profit tradeoff of a GENCO based on an efficient multi-objective model. Furthermore, unit commitment and inter-temporal constraints of generators are considered in the suggested model converting it to a mixed-integer programming (MIP) optimization problem. Sensitivity of the proposed framework with respect to both the level of the market prices and adopted risk level is also evaluated in the paper. Simulation results are presented on the IEEE 30-bus and IEEE 118-bus test systems illustrating the performance of the proposed self-scheduling model.

Day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets by a new feature selection algorithm and cascaded neural network technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

2009-01-01

With the introduction of restructuring into the electric power industry, the price of electricity has become the focus of all activities in the power market. Electricity price forecast is key information for electricity market managers and participants. However, electricity price is a complex signal due to its non-linear, non-stationary, and time variant behavior. In spite of performed research in this area, more accurate and robust price forecast methods are still required. In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets. Our forecast strategy is composed of a new two stage feature selection technique and cascaded neural networks. The proposed feature selection technique comprises modified Relief algorithm for the first stage and correlation analysis for the second stage. The modified Relief algorithm selects candidate inputs with maximum relevancy with the target variable. Then among the selected candidates, the correlation analysis eliminates redundant inputs. Selected features by the two stage feature selection technique are used for the forecast engine, which is composed of 24 consecutive forecasters. Each of these 24 forecasters is a neural network allocated to predict the price of 1 h of the next day. The whole proposed forecast strategy is examined on the Spanish and Australia's National Electricity Markets Management Company (NEMMCO) and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods.

Picture book support for preparing children ahead of and during day surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Nilsson, Elisabeth; Svensson, Gunnar; Frisman, Gunilla Hollman

2016-10-07

Aim To develop and evaluate the use of a specific picture book aiming to prepare children for anaesthesia and surgery. Methods An intervention comparing two different information methods before ear, nose and throat day surgery was performed. The intervention involved using a specific information sheet and a specific picture book. Parents (n=104) of children aged 2-12 years completed open-ended questions that were analysed with qualitative content analysis. They were divided into two groups: one group received routine information and one received routine information and the intervention. Findings The picture sheet and picture book were valuable aids to prepare small children for anaesthesia and surgery by explaining the procedures that would take place. The parents expressed that knowledge of the procedures made them and the child feel secure. Conclusion Peri-operative information through pictures supports children and their parents during day surgery and may be helpful in future healthcare visits.

Optimal Resources Planning of Residential Complex Energy System in a Day-ahead Market Based on Invasive Weed Optimization Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Αhmadi

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with optimal resources planning in a residential complex energy system, including FC (fuel cell, PV (Photovoltaic panels and the battery. A day-ahead energy management system (EMS based on invasive weed optimization (IWO algorithm is defined for managing different resources to determine an optimal operation schedule for the energy resources at each time interval to minimize the operation cost of a smart residential complex energy system. Moreover, in this paper the impacts of the sell to grid and purchase from grid are also considered. All practical constraints of the each energy resources and utility policies are taken into account. Moreover, sensitivity analysis are conducted on electricity prices and sell to grid factor (SGF, in order to improve understanding the impact of key parameters on residential CHP systems economy. It is shown that proposed system can meet all electrical and thermal demands with economic point of view. Also enhancement of electricity price leads to substantial growth in utilization of proposed CHP system.

Reflecting on the Present and Looking Ahead: A Response to Shuler

Science.gov (United States)

Tobias, Evan S.

2014-01-01

In considering how policy work might forward arts education, it is helpful to reflect on the present state of music and arts education while looking ahead at future challenges and possibilities. This response to Shuler's (2001) set of predictions related to music education and policy in the twenty-first century addresses such work in the…

Are electricity risk premia affected by emission allowance prices? Evidence from the EEX, Nord Pool and Powernext

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daskalakis, George; Markellos, Raphael N.

2009-01-01

The links between emission and energy markets are of great interest to practitioners, academics and policy makers. In this paper, it is conjectured that a positive relationship exists between emission allowance spot returns and electricity risk premia within the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). We discuss how this can be justified on the basis of the substantial uncertainties in the carbon markets. We also argue that this link could be due to trading strategies followed by electricity producers who attempt to exploit their initial allocation of free allowances. Analysis of data from three major markets, the EEX, Nord Pool and Powernext, offers empirical support to our conjecture. These findings have significant policy implications since they imply that efforts should be made in order to reduce the uncertainty in the carbon markets by clearly defining the EU ETS regulative framework and design over the next years. Moreover, our results suggest that the allocation of free allowances and their unrestricted trading enable electricity producers to accomplish windfall profits in the derivatives market at the expense of other market participants. (author)

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

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Full Text Available ... Planning ahead Breastfeeding and baby basics Making breastfeeding work for you Addressing breastfeeding myths Overcoming challenges Finding support Fitting breastfeeding into your life Partner resources Subscribe To receive Breastfeeding email updates ...

A Comparison of the Performance of Advanced Statistical Techniques for the Refinement of Day-ahead and Longer NWP-based Wind Power Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Zack, J. W.

2015-12-01

Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are the foundation for wind power forecasts for day-ahead and longer forecast horizons. The NWP models directly produce three-dimensional wind forecasts on their respective computational grids. These can be interpolated to the location and time of interest. However, these direct predictions typically contain significant systematic errors ("biases"). This is due to a variety of factors including the limited space-time resolution of the NWP models and shortcomings in the model's representation of physical processes. It has become common practice to attempt to improve the raw NWP forecasts by statistically adjusting them through a procedure that is widely known as Model Output Statistics (MOS). The challenge is to identify complex patterns of systematic errors and then use this knowledge to adjust the NWP predictions. The MOS-based improvements are the basis for much of the value added by commercial wind power forecast providers. There are an enormous number of statistical approaches that can be used to generate the MOS adjustments to the raw NWP forecasts. In order to obtain insight into the potential value of some of the newer and more sophisticated statistical techniques often referred to as "machine learning methods" a MOS-method comparison experiment has been performed for wind power generation facilities in 6 wind resource areas of California. The underlying NWP models that provided the raw forecasts were the two primary operational models of the US National Weather Service: the GFS and NAM models. The focus was on 1- and 2-day ahead forecasts of the hourly wind-based generation. The statistical methods evaluated included: (1) screening multiple linear regression, which served as a baseline method, (2) artificial neural networks, (3) a decision-tree approach called random forests, (4) gradient boosted regression based upon an decision-tree algorithm, (5) support vector regression and (6) analog ensemble

Design method for marine direct drive volume control ahead actuator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

WANG Haiyang

2018-02-01

Full Text Available [Objectives] In order to reduce the size, weight and auxiliary system configuration of marine ahead actuators, this paper proposes a kind of direct drive volume control electro-hydraulic servo ahead actuator. [Methods] The protruding and indenting control of the servo oil cylinder are realized through the forward and reverse of the bidirectional working gear pump, and the flow matching valve implements the self-locking of the ahead actuator in the target position. The mathematical model of the ahead actuator is established, and an integral separation fuzzy PID controller designed. On this basis, using AMESim software to build a simulation model of the ahead actuator, and combined with testing, this paper completes an analysis of the control strategy research and dynamic and static performance of the ahead actuator. [Results] The experimental results agree well with the simulation results and verify the feasibility of the ahead actuator's design. [Conclusions] The research results of this paper can provide valuable references for the integration and miniaturization design of marine ahead actuators.

Pricing Energy and Ancillary Services in a Day-Ahead Market for a Price-Taker Hydro Generating Company Using a Risk-Constrained Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Perica Ilak

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes a price-taker hydro generating company which participates simultaneously in day-ahead energy and ancillary services markets. An approach for deriving marginal cost curves for energy and ancillary services is proposed, taking into consideration price uncertainty and opportunity cost of water, which can later be used to determine hourly bid curves. The proposed approach combines an hourly conditional value-at-risk, probability of occurrence of automatic generation control states and an opportunity cost of water to determine energy and ancillary services marginal cost curves. The proposed approach is in a linear constraint form and is easy to implement in optimization problems. A stochastic model of the hydro-economic river basin is presented, based on the actual Vinodol hydropower system in Croatia, with a complex three-dimensional relationship between the power produced, the discharged water, and the head of associated reservoir.

Day Ahead Real Time Pricing and Critical Peak Pricing Based Power Scheduling for Smart Homes with Different Duty Cycles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadeem Javaid

2018-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a demand side management (DSM scheme in the residential area for electricity cost and peak to average ratio (PAR alleviation with maximum users’ satisfaction. For this purpose, we implement state-of-the-art algorithms: enhanced differential evolution (EDE and teacher learning-based optimization (TLBO. Furthermore, we propose a hybrid technique (HT having the best features of both aforementioned algorithms. We consider a system model for single smart home as well as for a community (multiple homes and each home consists of multiple appliances with different priorities. The priority is assigned (to each appliance by electricity consumers and then the proposed scheme finds an optimal solution according to the assigned priorities. Day-ahead real time pricing (DA-RTP and critical peak pricing (CPP are used for electricity cost calculation. To validate our proposed scheme, simulations are carried out and results show that our proposed scheme efficiently achieves the aforementioned objectives. However, when we perform a comparison with existing schemes, HT outperforms other state-of-the-art schemes (TLBO and EDE in terms of electricity cost and PAR reduction while minimizing the average waiting time.

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

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Full Text Available ... menu It's Only Natural Planning ahead Breastfeeding and baby basics Making breastfeeding work for you Addressing breastfeeding ... in the African-American community Incredible facts about babies, breastmilk, and breastfeeding Overcoming challenges Common questions about ...

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

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Full Text Available ... Planning ahead Breastfeeding and baby basics Making breastfeeding work for you Addressing ... decisions. But if you haven’t already thought about breastfeeding, now is a great time. Before your baby is here is the ...

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

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Full Text Available ... To receive Breastfeeding email updates Enter email Submit Planning ahead From choosing the crib to finding a ... care Get health insurance Get help with family planning Get help with mental health Find girls' health ...

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

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Full Text Available ... we are What we do Programs and activities Work with us Contact Us Blog Popular topics Vision ... Planning ahead Breastfeeding and baby basics Making breastfeeding work for you Addressing breastfeeding myths Breastfeeding myths in ...

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

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Full Text Available ... into your life Breastfeeding in daily life: At home and in public Laws that support breastfeeding 10 ... and jobs View all pages in this section Home It's Only Natural Planning ahead It's Only Natural ...

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

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Full Text Available ... It's Only Natural Planning ahead Breastfeeding and baby basics Making breastfeeding work for you Addressing breastfeeding myths Overcoming challenges Finding support Fitting breastfeeding into your life Partner resources Subscribe To receive Breastfeeding email updates ...

75 FR 42380 - Orders Finding That the SP-15 Financial Day-Ahead LMP Peak Contract and SP-15 Financial Day-Ahead...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-21

... Exchange Act (``CEA'' or the ``Act''), perform a significant price discovery function pursuant to section 2...Exchange, Inc., Perform a Significant Price Discovery Function AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission... that the SPM and OFP contracts perform a significant price discovery function. Authority for this...

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... activities In your community Funding opportunities Internships and jobs View all pages in this section Back to section menu It's Only Natural Planning ahead Breastfeeding and baby basics Making breastfeeding work for you Addressing breastfeeding myths Breastfeeding myths in ...

Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices : Utilizing Hourly Prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

E. Raviv (Eran); K.E. Bouwman (Kees); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

2013-01-01

textabstractThe daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual

Waste disposal in Europe - Looking ahead

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verkerk, B.

1985-01-01

In this introductory paper a short outline is given of the Commission's programme on management and disposal of radioactive waste, followed by a discussion of the programme structure. This leads to the very important aspect of evaluation of results obtained and the communication of the achievements to the outer world. The important role of the media in this respect is stressed. Looking ahead, an important part of the Third Five years programme, the development of demonstration facilities, is projected against the problem of acceptability. Thinking about the consequences of entering the demonstration stage with respect to future research it turns out to be a broad field of work opens up, when the achievements reached in the radioactive waste area, could be transferred to problems of other toxic wastes and fusion wastes

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... we are What we do Programs and activities Work with us Contact Us Blog Popular topics Vision and mission Leadership Programs and activities In your community Funding opportunities Internships and jobs View all pages in this section Home It's Only Natural Planning ahead It's Only Natural ...

Not All Large Customers are Made Alike: Disaggregating Response to Default-Service Day-Ahead Market Pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopper, Nicole; Goldman, Charles; Neenan, Bernie

2006-01-01

For decades, policymakers and program designers have gone on the assumption that large customers, particularly industrial facilities, are the best candidates for realtime pricing (RTP). This assumption is based partly on practical considerations (large customers can provide potentially large load reductions) but also on the premise that businesses focused on production cost minimization are most likely to participate and respond to opportunities for bill savings. Yet few studies have examined the actual price response of large industrial and commercial customers in a disaggregated fashion, nor have factors such as the impacts of demand response (DR) enabling technologies, simultaneous emergency DR program participation and price response barriers been fully elucidated. This second-phase case study of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation (NMPC)'s large customer RTP tariff addresses these information needs. The results demonstrate the extreme diversity of large customers' response to hourly varying prices. While two-thirds exhibit some price response, about 20 percent of customers provide 75-80 percent of the aggregate load reductions. Manufacturing customers are most price-responsive as a group, followed by government/education customers, while other sectors are largely unresponsive. However, individual customer response varies widely. Currently, enabling technologies do not appear to enhance hourly price response; customers report using them for other purposes. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO)'s emergency DR programs enhance price response, in part by signaling to customers that day-ahead prices are high. In sum, large customers do currently provide moderate price response, but there is significant room for improvement through targeted programs that help customers develop and implement automated load-response strategies

Perioperative solutions for rapid recovery joint arthroplasty: get ahead and stay ahead.

Science.gov (United States)

Sculco, Peter K; Pagnano, Mark W

2015-04-01

Rapid recovery after total joint arthroplasty requires patients to get ahead and stay ahead or the four impediments to early rehabilitation and discharge: volume depletion, blood loss, pain, and nausea. Adequate volume resuscitation starts before entering the operating room and focuses on intravenous fluids rather than red blood cell transfusion. Tranexamic acid limits blood loss and reduces the need for most other blood management systems. Rapid recovery pain management focuses on minimizing parenteral opioids. A short-acting spinal with a peri-articular local anesthetic injection is reliable, reproducible, and safe. Patients at risk for post-operative nausea are treated with anti-emetic medications and perioperative dexamethasone. These interventions reflect a transition from the sick-patient model to the well-patient model and make rapid recovery joint arthroplasty a reality in 2015. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Visual straight-ahead preference in saccadic eye movements.

Science.gov (United States)

Camors, Damien; Trotter, Yves; Pouget, Pierre; Gilardeau, Sophie; Durand, Jean-Baptiste

2016-03-15

Ocular saccades bringing the gaze toward the straight-ahead direction (centripetal) exhibit higher dynamics than those steering the gaze away (centrifugal). This is generally explained by oculomotor determinants: centripetal saccades are more efficient because they pull the eyes back toward their primary orbital position. However, visual determinants might also be invoked: elements located straight-ahead trigger saccades more efficiently because they receive a privileged visual processing. Here, we addressed this issue by using both pro- and anti-saccade tasks in order to dissociate the centripetal/centrifugal directions of the saccades, from the straight-ahead/eccentric locations of the visual elements triggering those saccades. Twenty participants underwent alternating blocks of pro- and anti-saccades during which eye movements were recorded binocularly at 1 kHz. The results confirm that centripetal saccades are always executed faster than centrifugal ones, irrespective of whether the visual elements have straight-ahead or eccentric locations. However, by contrast, saccades triggered by elements located straight-ahead are consistently initiated more rapidly than those evoked by eccentric elements, irrespective of their centripetal or centrifugal direction. Importantly, this double dissociation reveals that the higher dynamics of centripetal pro-saccades stem from both oculomotor and visual determinants, which act respectively on the execution and initiation of ocular saccades.

Short time ahead wind power production forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sapronova, Alla; Meissner, Catherine; Mana, Matteo

2016-01-01

An accurate prediction of wind power output is crucial for efficient coordination of cooperative energy production from different sources. Long-time ahead prediction (from 6 to 24 hours) of wind power for onshore parks can be achieved by using a coupled model that would bridge the mesoscale weather prediction data and computational fluid dynamics. When a forecast for shorter time horizon (less than one hour ahead) is anticipated, an accuracy of a predictive model that utilizes hourly weather data is decreasing. That is because the higher frequency fluctuations of the wind speed are lost when data is averaged over an hour. Since the wind speed can vary up to 50% in magnitude over a period of 5 minutes, the higher frequency variations of wind speed and direction have to be taken into account for an accurate short-term ahead energy production forecast. In this work a new model for wind power production forecast 5- to 30-minutes ahead is presented. The model is based on machine learning techniques and categorization approach and using the historical park production time series and hourly numerical weather forecast. (paper)

Short time ahead wind power production forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Sapronova, Alla; Meissner, Catherine; Mana, Matteo

2016-09-01

An accurate prediction of wind power output is crucial for efficient coordination of cooperative energy production from different sources. Long-time ahead prediction (from 6 to 24 hours) of wind power for onshore parks can be achieved by using a coupled model that would bridge the mesoscale weather prediction data and computational fluid dynamics. When a forecast for shorter time horizon (less than one hour ahead) is anticipated, an accuracy of a predictive model that utilizes hourly weather data is decreasing. That is because the higher frequency fluctuations of the wind speed are lost when data is averaged over an hour. Since the wind speed can vary up to 50% in magnitude over a period of 5 minutes, the higher frequency variations of wind speed and direction have to be taken into account for an accurate short-term ahead energy production forecast. In this work a new model for wind power production forecast 5- to 30-minutes ahead is presented. The model is based on machine learning techniques and categorization approach and using the historical park production time series and hourly numerical weather forecast.

An immediate go-ahead for nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stubbe, C.

1986-01-01

In the meantime a wealth of court decisions have been reached regarding an immediate go-ahead for nuclear power plants. For all that, it is still not clear - and varying decisions have been made in judgement - according to which criteria the judicial balance is to be made between the interests of the plaintiff in bringing about a stay of the proceedings and the interests of the planner in going ahead with them. The author advocates an examination of the main issue already during suspension proceedings until the court can form a preliminary opinion on the chances of success of the main issue. He also advocates in the Administrative Court Ordinance regulations regarding go-ahead as determined in the commission draft to the Administrative Court of 1978. (orig.) [de

Belpex and trilateral market coupling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-01-15

This document describes the operation of Belpex, the Belgian power transmission spot market, and its linking with the French (Powernext) and Dutch (APX) auction-style day-ahead spot markets. A last part deals with the extension of this trilateral market to other European countries. Content: Belpex day-ahead market (DAM) (Goals of the DAM: Provide consumers with a wider choice of electrical energy sources, Enable the ARP's to optimize their portfolio in terms of imbalance costs, Reduce trade and credit risks for market players compared with the risks involved in concluding bilateral contracts, Provide economic players with a transparent price benchmark, Stimulate the opening of the electricity market); Market model Product (description, Contracts, Collateral calculation, From 12 January to launch date Corporate and Legal Aspects, Next developments); Trilateral Market Coupling (What is market coupling and what are the benefits?, Implementation of trilateral market coupling ('TLC') in France/Belgium/Netherlands, From Trilateral to Multilateral, Implementation of Trilateral Market Coupling (TLC) in France/Belgium/Netherlands, Decentralized market coupling mechanism, influence of import and export on area prices); Decentralized market coupling (2 countries Situations: unconstrained/constrained, Decentralized market coupling: 3 countries, High Level Properties of Market Coupling, Maximize flow until prices across link converge (or ATC limit reached), Power flows from low price area to high price area, Implementing a decentralized technical approach, Market Coupling Daily Process, Impact on Existing Exchange Arrangements, Implementing a decentralized contractual approach, TLC Project Process); From Trilateral to Multilateral (Geographic extensions, Towards an Open and Multilateral Market Coupling, Management of Interconnection Capacities, Interconnection Capacities: current situation, TSO Roles and Responsibilities in the TLC, Other Import/Export products

Belpex and trilateral market coupling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This document describes the operation of Belpex, the Belgian power transmission spot market, and its linking with the French (Powernext) and Dutch (APX) auction-style day-ahead spot markets. A last part deals with the extension of this trilateral market to other European countries. Content: Belpex day-ahead market (DAM) (Goals of the DAM: Provide consumers with a wider choice of electrical energy sources, Enable the ARP's to optimize their portfolio in terms of imbalance costs, Reduce trade and credit risks for market players compared with the risks involved in concluding bilateral contracts, Provide economic players with a transparent price benchmark, Stimulate the opening of the electricity market); Market model Product (description, Contracts, Collateral calculation, From 12 January to launch date Corporate and Legal Aspects, Next developments); Trilateral Market Coupling (What is market coupling and what are the benefits?, Implementation of trilateral market coupling ('TLC') in France/Belgium/Netherlands, From Trilateral to Multilateral, Implementation of Trilateral Market Coupling (TLC) in France/Belgium/Netherlands, Decentralized market coupling mechanism, influence of import and export on area prices); Decentralized market coupling (2 countries Situations: unconstrained/constrained, Decentralized market coupling: 3 countries, High Level Properties of Market Coupling, Maximize flow until prices across link converge (or ATC limit reached), Power flows from low price area to high price area, Implementing a decentralized technical approach, Market Coupling Daily Process, Impact on Existing Exchange Arrangements, Implementing a decentralized contractual approach, TLC Project Process); From Trilateral to Multilateral (Geographic extensions, Towards an Open and Multilateral Market Coupling, Management of Interconnection Capacities, Interconnection Capacities: current situation, TSO Roles and Responsibilities in the TLC, Other Import/Export products on the

Comparative Study on KNN and SVM Based Weather Classification Models for Day Ahead Short Term Solar PV Power Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Wang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV power forecasting is an essential tool for mitigating the negative effects caused by the uncertainty of PV output power in systems with high penetration levels of solar PV generation. Weather classification based modeling is an effective way to increase the accuracy of day-ahead short-term (DAST solar PV power forecasting because PV output power is strongly dependent on the specific weather conditions in a given time period. However, the accuracy of daily weather classification relies on both the applied classifiers and the training data. This paper aims to reveal how these two factors impact the classification performance and to delineate the relation between classification accuracy and sample dataset scale. Two commonly used classification methods, K-nearest neighbors (KNN and support vector machines (SVM are applied to classify the daily local weather types for DAST solar PV power forecasting using the operation data from a grid-connected PV plant in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China. We assessed the performance of SVM and KNN approaches, and then investigated the influences of sample scale, the number of categories, and the data distribution in different categories on the daily weather classification results. The simulation results illustrate that SVM performs well with small sample scale, while KNN is more sensitive to the length of the training dataset and can achieve higher accuracy than SVM with sufficient samples.

A red-letter day !

CERN Multimedia

2008-01-01

Today is a red-letter day for the LHC and CERN as a beam of protons has travelled around the LHC ring for the very first time! The start of LHC operation marks the end of a long period in which you have given your all, and this first particle beam circulating in the accelerator now paves the way for discoveries that will open up a whole new field of knowledge. The history of the LHC began in 1984 with a debate on the possible objectives of a future accelerator, based on the state of our knowledge at that time. The CERN Council then approved the single-stage construction of the LHC in 1996, giving the go-ahead for the work that has now reached completion. For the past twelve years, physicists, engineers and technicians from CERN and its associated institutes have been engaged in constructing the three pillars of the LHC: the accelerator (including the upgrade of the existing accelerator chain), the four experiments, and the computing ...

Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices: Utilizing Hourly Prices

OpenAIRE

Raviv, Eran; Bouwman, Kees E.; van Dijk, Dick

2013-01-01

This discussion paper led to a publication in 'Energy Economics' , 2015, 50, 227-239. The daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual hours. This paper demonstrates that the disaggregated hourly prices contain useful predictive information for the daily average ...

Career perspective: Alf O. Brubakk-looking back to see ahead.

Science.gov (United States)

Brubakk, Alf O

2015-01-01

The following describes my professional life up till today, but it also describes what I think lies ahead. I have led an interesting professional life and been lucky enough to be at the centre of some of the important development in modern medicine and diving, namely ultrasound in cardiology and the mechanisms of decompression. I therefore should be able to see some of the most challenging and exciting problems ahead. Ultrasound in cardiology has developed from simply listening to the Doppler signal to determine the velocity of blood flow to the complicated description of images presented today. Diving, in addition to being an important commercial and environmental activity, exposes the individual to intermittent hyperoxia and pressure reductions. These challenges evoke the production of radical oxygen species (ROS) and microparticles (MP) that also are central to many pathophysiologic mechanisms that are involved in a number of severe human diseases. Thus, diving can be regarded as an important model of disease and allows us to study their effects on healthy young individuals. The future thus points towards an integration of environmental physiology with detailed physiological and pathophysiological mechanisms and makes diving physiology a potentially very important field of study.

Challenges ahead for mass spectrometry and proteomics applications in epigenetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Kessler, Benedikt M

2010-02-01

Inheritance of biological information to future generations depends on the replication of DNA and the Mendelian principle of distribution of genes. In addition, external and environmental factors can influence traits that can be propagated to offspring, but the molecular details of this are only beginning to be understood. The discoveries of DNA methylation and post-translational modifications on chromatin and histones provided entry points for regulating gene expression, an area now defined as epigenetics and epigenomics. Mass spectrometry turned out to be instrumental in uncovering molecular details involved in these processes. The central role of histone post-translational modifications in epigenetics related biological processes has revitalized mass spectrometry based investigations. In this special report, current approaches and future challenges that lay ahead due to the enormous complexity are discussed.

AHEAD. Advate in HaEmophilia A outcome Database.

Science.gov (United States)

Oldenburg, J; Kurnik, K; Huth-Kühne, A; Zimmermann, R; Abraham, I; Klamroth, R

2010-11-01

The clinical picture of haemophilia A patients is often characterised by recurrent bleedings, in particular joint bleeds. Thus far, long-term data on the outcome of haemophilia A patients are scarce as regards the development of target joints, joint replacement, lost days from school or work due to bleedings, and the quality of life, as most previous studies were limited to the aspects of safety and efficacy. The Baxter-initiated AHEAD (Advate in HaEmophilia A outcome Database) study is a multi-centre, prospective, non-interventional observational study of haemophilia A patients. All patients with a residual FVIII activity of £5% who are being treated with ADVATE are eligible. There are no limitations in terms of patient age or treatment regimen. AHEAD is scientifically supported by a renowned interdisciplinary steering board and is intended to yield data on 500 patients in up to 30 haemophilia centres, collected during a period of four years. The large patient population has been chosen in order to ensure a valid database. The objective of the study is to record haemophilia-related arthropathies, which will be defined based on imaging techniques (e. g. MRI, X-ray, ultrasound) and the judgment of the attending physician. In addition, extensive data will be collected on joint replacement surgeries, pseudotumour development, bleeding-related pain, quality of life (age-related questionnaires: Haem-A-QoL, Haemo-QoL, SF10, SF12v2), risk factors (diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, nicotine abuse), blood group, gene mutation, physical activity, and on the efficacy and safety of Advate. The patient data will be entered into an electronic CRF system at the centres. Plausibility checks during data entry, regular monitoring visits, and the option of auditing all serve to ensure a high data quality for AHEAD. The first patient was enrolled in the study in early June 2010; recruitment is planned to continue until the end of 2011. The Ethics Committee of the University

Planning Ahead: Advanced Heart Failure

Science.gov (United States)

... Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Planning Ahead: Advanced Heart Failure Updated:May 9,2017 An important part of ... Care This content was last reviewed May 2017. Heart Failure • Home • About Heart Failure • Causes and Risks for ...

A Bias and Variance Analysis for Multistep-Ahead Time Series Forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Ben Taieb, Souhaib; Atiya, Amir F

2016-01-01

Multistep-ahead forecasts can either be produced recursively by iterating a one-step-ahead time series model or directly by estimating a separate model for each forecast horizon. In addition, there are other strategies; some of them combine aspects of both aforementioned concepts. In this paper, we present a comprehensive investigation into the bias and variance behavior of multistep-ahead forecasting strategies. We provide a detailed review of the different multistep-ahead strategies. Subsequently, we perform a theoretical study that derives the bias and variance for a number of forecasting strategies. Finally, we conduct a Monte Carlo experimental study that compares and evaluates the bias and variance performance of the different strategies. From the theoretical and the simulation studies, we analyze the effect of different factors, such as the forecast horizon and the time series length, on the bias and variance components, and on the different multistep-ahead strategies. Several lessons are learned, and recommendations are given concerning the advantages, disadvantages, and best conditions of use of each strategy.

Customer response to day-ahead wholesale market electricity prices: Case study of RTP program experience in New York

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldman, C.; Hopper, N.; Sezgen, O.; Moezzi, M.; Bharvirkar, R.; Neenan, B.; Boisvert, R.; Cappers, P.; Pratt, D.

2004-07-01

There is growing interest in policies, programs and tariffs that encourage customer loads to provide demand response (DR) to help discipline wholesale electricity markets. Proposals at the retail level range from eliminating fixed rate tariffs as the default service for some or all customer groups to reinstituting utility-sponsored load management programs with market-based inducements to curtail. Alternative rate designs include time-of-use (TOU), day-ahead real-time pricing (RTP), critical peak pricing, and even pricing usage at real-time market balancing prices. Some Independent System Operators (ISOs) have implemented their own DR programs whereby load curtailment capabilities are treated as a system resource and are paid an equivalent value. The resulting load reductions from these tariffs and programs provide a variety of benefits, including limiting the ability of suppliers to increase spot and long-term market-clearing prices above competitive levels (Neenan et al., 2002; Boren stein, 2002; Ruff, 2002). Unfortunately, there is little information in the public domain to characterize and quantify how customers actually respond to these alternative dynamic pricing schemes. A few empirical studies of large customer RTP response have shown modest results for most customers, with a few very price-responsive customers providing most of the aggregate response (Herriges et al., 1993; Schwarz et al., 2002). However, these studies examined response to voluntary, two-part RTP programs implemented by utilities in states without retail competition.1 Furthermore, the researchers had limited information on customer characteristics so they were unable to identify the drivers to price response. In the absence of a compelling characterization of why customers join RTP programs and how they respond to prices, many initiatives to modernize retail electricity rates seem to be stymied.

Survival, Look-Ahead Bias and the Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Baquero; J.R. ter Horst (Jenke); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

2005-01-01

textabstractWe analyze the performance persistence in hedge funds taking into account look-ahead bias (multi-period sampling bias). We model liquidation of hedge funds by analyzing how it depends upon historical performance. Next, we use a weighting procedure that eliminates look-ahead bias in

Full STEAM Ahead: From Earth to Ploonoids

Science.gov (United States)

Runyon, C. R.; Hall, C.; Blackman, C. L.; Royle, M.; Williams, M. N.

2015-12-01

What the heck is a plunoid, you ask? The NASA Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute's Education/Public Engagement (EPE) program,from two SSERVI teams (SEEED at Brown/MIT and CLASS at University of Central Florida), is moving full STEAM ahead, engaging the public in the exciting discoveries being made around small bodies, including PLanetary mOONs and asterOIDS (i.e ploonoids). The team has incorporated the arts, from visual representations, storytelling, and music into every facet of the program, to stimulate an affective and personal connection to the content. This past year, the SSERVI STEAM team has participated in numerous public science events, including International Observe the Moon Night, two Astronomy Nights at a local baseball venue, Dark Skies at the US and Canadian National Parks, and Space Day at Camp Happy Days, a camp for children with cancer. Through these events, the team reached over 10000 members of the general public, showcasing current NASA SSERVI research, dispelling myths about our landing and exploring the moon, demonstrating the excitement of STEM through hands-on interactive displays, and providing an outlet for creativity by having multiple ways of representing and explaining scientific information through the arts. Join us on our "ed"venture through the solar system ploonoids.

Need yellow fever vaccine? Plan ahead

Science.gov (United States)

... Submit What's this? Submit Button Past Emails Need yellow fever vaccine? Plan ahead. Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) ... none were from the United States). What is yellow fever? Yellow fever is caused by a virus that ...

33 CFR 164.76 - Towline and terminal gear for towing alongside and pushing ahead.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... towing alongside and pushing ahead. 164.76 Section 164.76 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD... Towline and terminal gear for towing alongside and pushing ahead. The owner, master, or operator of each vessel towing alongside or pushing ahead shall ensure that the face wires, spring lines, and push gear...

Water availability, water quality water governance: the future ahead

Science.gov (United States)

Tundisi, J. G.; Matsumura-Tundisi, T.; Ciminelli, V. S.; Barbosa, F. A.

2015-04-01

The major challenge for achieving a sustainable future for water resources and water security is the integration of water availability, water quality and water governance. Water is unevenly distributed on Planet Earth and these disparities are cause of several economic, ecological and social differences in the societies of many countries and regions. As a consequence of human misuse, growth of urbanization and soil degradation, water quality is deteriorating continuously. Key components for the maintenance of water quantity and water quality are the vegetation cover of watersheds, reduction of the demand and new water governance that includes integrated management, predictive evaluation of impacts, and ecosystem services. Future research needs are discussed.

Seismic prediction ahead of tunnel construction using Rayleigh-waves

OpenAIRE

Jetschny, Stefan; De Nil, Denise; Bohlen, Thomas

2008-01-01

To increase safety and efficiency of tunnel constructions, online seismic exploration ahead of a tunnel can become a valuable tool. We developed a new forward looking seismic imaging technique e.g. to determine weak and water bearing zones ahead of the constructions. Our approach is based on the excitation and registration of tunnel surface-waves. These waves are excited at the tunnel face behind the cutter head of a tunnel boring machine and travel into drilling direction. Arriving at the fr...

Planning Schools for the Future. Publication No. BM-1.

Science.gov (United States)

Weinberger, JoAnn

In a three-year study, Research for Better Schools (RBS) was asked by the National Institute of Education to identify, analyze, and verify definitive social changes forecast for the decades ahead, and to project their implications for schools of the future. RBS reviewed the literature to extract future planning needs relevant to educational…

Oil prices. Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meade, Nigel

2010-01-01

For oil related investment appraisal, an accurate description of the evolving uncertainty in the oil price is essential. For example, when using real option theory to value an investment, a density function for the future price of oil is central to the option valuation. The literature on oil pricing offers two views. The arbitrage pricing theory literature for oil suggests geometric Brownian motion and mean reversion models. Empirically driven literature suggests ARMA-GARCH models. In addition to reflecting the volatility of the market, the density function of future prices should also incorporate the uncertainty due to price jumps, a common occurrence in the oil market. In this study, the accuracy of density forecasts for up to a year ahead is the major criterion for a comparison of a range of models of oil price behaviour, both those proposed in the literature and following from data analysis. The Kullbach Leibler information criterion is used to measure the accuracy of density forecasts. Using two crude oil price series, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) representing the US market, we demonstrate that accurate density forecasts are achievable for up to nearly two years ahead using a mixture of two Gaussians innovation processes with GARCH and no mean reversion. (author)

Oil prices. Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meade, Nigel [Imperial College, Business School London (United Kingdom)

2010-11-15

For oil related investment appraisal, an accurate description of the evolving uncertainty in the oil price is essential. For example, when using real option theory to value an investment, a density function for the future price of oil is central to the option valuation. The literature on oil pricing offers two views. The arbitrage pricing theory literature for oil suggests geometric Brownian motion and mean reversion models. Empirically driven literature suggests ARMA-GARCH models. In addition to reflecting the volatility of the market, the density function of future prices should also incorporate the uncertainty due to price jumps, a common occurrence in the oil market. In this study, the accuracy of density forecasts for up to a year ahead is the major criterion for a comparison of a range of models of oil price behaviour, both those proposed in the literature and following from data analysis. The Kullbach Leibler information criterion is used to measure the accuracy of density forecasts. Using two crude oil price series, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) representing the US market, we demonstrate that accurate density forecasts are achievable for up to nearly two years ahead using a mixture of two Gaussians innovation processes with GARCH and no mean reversion. (author)

Looking Ahead: Future Directions in, and Future Research into, Second Language Acquisition

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen-Freeman, Diane

2018-01-01

This article begins by situating modern-day second language acquisition (SLA) research in a historical context, tracing its evolution from cognitive to social to sociocognitive accounts. Next, the influence of the zeitgeist is considered. In this era of rapid change and turmoil, there are both perils and opportunities afforded by globalization. In…

Day Care Centers for Seniors in Singapore: Looking Back and Looking Ahead.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Germaine; Yap, Philip; Wong, Gabriel H Z; Wei, Heng Xiao; Hua, Ee Chye

2015-07-01

The burden of care for frail elderly persons on families and the society is ever real as our population ages. Given the dual-income nature of many working families, day care centers offer a strong alternative to nursing homes for families wishing to provide custodial care and meaningful engagement for seniors while continuing to uphold their filial duties. Recognizing this, several initiatives, such as SPICE (Singapore Programme for Integrated Care for the Elderly) and Weekend Respite Care, have been launched to enhance the services of Singapore's day care centers. This article traces the evolution of this process, distills current challenges, and offers policy recommendations to improve Singapore's day care services for seniors. Copyright © 2015 AMDA - The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Highly parallel machines and future of scientific computing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, G.S.

1992-01-01

Computing requirement of large scale scientific computing has always been ahead of what state of the art hardware could supply in the form of supercomputers of the day. And for any single processor system the limit to increase in the computing power was realized a few years back itself. Now with the advent of parallel computing systems the availability of machines with the required computing power seems a reality. In this paper the author tries to visualize the future large scale scientific computing in the penultimate decade of the present century. The author summarized trends in parallel computers and emphasize the need for a better programming environment and software tools for optimal performance. The author concludes this paper with critique on parallel architectures, software tools and algorithms. (author). 10 refs., 2 tabs

California LLW disposal site development update: Ahead of milestone schedule

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romano, S.A.; Gaynor, R.K.

1987-01-01

US Ecology has been designated by the State of California to locate, develop and operate a low-level radioactive waste disposal facility. In early 1986, the firm identified eighteen desert basins in southeastern California for siting consideration. Three candidate sites were selected for detailed field characterization work in February, 1987. A preferred site for licensing purposes will be identified in early 1988. California is currently ahead of the siting milestone schedule mandated by the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Amendments Act. It is likely that a license application will be filed before the 1990 milestone date. This paper describes the process undertaken by US Ecology to identify three candidates sites for characterization, and the public involvement program supporting this decision. Future activities leading to final site development are also described

How Far Ahead Does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Look?1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bulut Umit

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In monetary economics literature, there is an agreement that monetary policy has a lagged effect on inflation. As a result of this agreement, monetary policy reaction functions that include expected inflation, instead of current or lagged inflation, are established. On the other hand, there is uncertainty about how much time monetary policy needs to affect inflation. The purpose of this paper is to estimate empirically how far ahead the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey looks. In other words, the paper examines whether the CBRT takes into consideration 12-month ahead inflation expectations or 24-month ahead inflation expectations while steering interest rates. According to the results of the paper, the CBRT considers 12-month ahead inflation expectations while steering interest rates.

Working Paper on the Future of Library Automation at Stanford.

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, David C.

A number of important factors require Stanford University to review the progress and future implications of technological innovations in the library for the community of scholars which it serves. These factors include: The general economic climate of the University in 1971 and in the immediate years ahead; The problem of future funding of the…

Seismic prediction ahead of tunnel constructions

Science.gov (United States)

Jetschny, S.; Bohlen, T.; Nil, D. D.; Giese, R.

2007-12-01

To increase safety and efficiency of tunnel constructions, online seismic exploration ahead of a tunnel can become a valuable tool. Within the \\it OnSite project founded by the BMBF (German Ministry of Education and Research) within \\it GeoTechnologien a new forward looking seismic imaging technique is developed to e.g. determine weak and water bearing zones ahead of the constructions. Our approach is based on the excitation and registration of \\it tunnel surface waves. These waves are excited at the tunnel face behind the cutter head of a tunnel boring machine and travel into drilling direction. Arriving at the front face they generate body waves (mainly S-waves) propagating further ahead. Reflected S-waves are back- converted into tunnel surface waves. For a theoretical description of the conversion process and for finding optimal acquisition geometries it is of importance to study the propagation characteristics of tunnel surface waves. 3D seismic finite difference modeling and analytic solutions of the wave equation in cylindric coordinates revealed that at higher frequencies, i.e. if the tunnel diameter is significantly larger than the wavelength of S-waves, these surface waves can be regarded as Rayleigh-waves circulating the tunnel. For smaller frequencies, i.e. when the S-wavelength approaches the tunnel diameter, the propagation characteristics of these surface waves are then similar to S- waves. Field measurements performed by the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Germany at the Gotthard Base Tunnel (Switzerland) show both effects, i.e. the propagation of Rayleigh- and body-wave like waves along the tunnel. To enhance our understanding of the excitation and propagation characteristics of tunnel surface waves the transition of Rayleigh to tube-waves waves is investigated both analytically and by numerical simulations.

Effect of driving experience on anticipatory look-ahead fixations in real curve driving.

Science.gov (United States)

Lehtonen, Esko; Lappi, Otto; Koirikivi, Iivo; Summala, Heikki

2014-09-01

Anticipatory skills are a potential factor for novice drivers' curve accidents. Behavioural data show that steering and speed regulation are affected by forward planning of the trajectory. When approaching a curve, the relevant visual information for online steering control and for planning is located at different eccentricities, creating a need to disengage the gaze from the guidance of steering to anticipatory look-ahead fixations over curves. With experience, peripheral vision can be increasingly used in the visual guidance of steering. This could leave experienced drivers more gaze time to invest on look-ahead fixations over curves, facilitating the trajectory planning. Eighteen drivers (nine novices, nine experienced) drove an instrumented vehicle on a rural road four times in both directions. Their eye movements were analyzed in six curves. The trajectory of the car was modelled and divided to approach, entry and exit phases. Experienced drivers spent less time on the road-ahead and more time on the look-ahead fixations over the curves. Look-ahead fixations were also more common in the approach than in the entry phase of the curve. The results suggest that with experience drivers allocate greater part of their visual attention to trajectory planning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bivariate Division and a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Optimized by Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization for Day-Ahead Electricity Price

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhilong Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the electricity market, the electricity price plays an inevitable role. Nevertheless, accurate price forecasting, a vital factor affecting both government regulatory agencies and public power companies, remains a huge challenge and a critical problem. Determining how to address the accurate forecasting problem becomes an even more significant task in an era in which electricity is increasingly important. Based on the chaos particle swarm optimization (CPSO, the backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN, and the idea of bivariate division, this paper proposes a bivariate division BPANN (BD-BPANN method and the CPSO-BD-BPANN method for forecasting electricity price. The former method creatively transforms the electricity demand and price to be a new variable, named DV, which is calculated using the division principle, to forecast the day-ahead electricity by multiplying the forecasted values of the DVs and forecasted values of the demand. Next, to improve the accuracy of BD-BPANN, chaos particle swarm optimization and BD-BPANN are synthesized to form a novel model, CPSO-BD-BPANN. In this study, CPSO is utilized to optimize the initial parameters of BD-BPANN to make its output more stable than the original model. Finally, two forecasting strategies are proposed regarding different situations.

Online multistep-ahead inundation depth forecasts by recurrent NARX networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H.-Y. Shen

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Various types of artificial neural networks (ANNs have been successfully applied in hydrological fields, but relatively scant on multistep-ahead flood inundation forecasting, which is very difficult to achieve, especially when dealing with forecasts without regular observed data. This study proposes a recurrent configuration of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX network, called R-NARX, to forecast multistep-ahead inundation depths in an inundation area. The proposed R-NARX is constructed based on the recurrent neural network (RNN, which is commonly used for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems. The models were trained and tested based on a large number of inundation data generated by a well validated two-dimensional simulation model at thirteen inundation-prone sites in Yilan County, Taiwan. We demonstrate that the R-NARX model can effectively inhibit error growth and accumulation when being applied to online multistep-ahead inundation forecasts over a long lasting forecast period. For comparison, a feedforward time-delay and an online feedback configuration of NARX networks (T-NARX and O-NARX were performed. The results show that (1 T-NARX networks cannot make online forecasts due to unavailable inputs in the constructed networks even though they provide the best performances for reference only; and (2 R-NARX networks consistently outperform O-NARX networks and can be adequately applied to online multistep-ahead forecasts of inundation depths in the study area during typhoon events.

Which Future for Nuclear Power Beyond the Year 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carle, Remy

1990-01-01

In today's world, and most certainly in the future, a growing number of people seek a better life - with continuing progress. To achieve this, they need more and more energy and electricity. There is, of course, a limit to this increase; the world population will stabilize and advances in energy consumption practices will limit waste. I do not intend to speculate on figures for the future; I prefer to restrict myself to present-day facts and figures: eight billion metric tons of oil equivalent are consumed each year, a quarter of which is in the form of electricity. And of this electricity, nuclear power supplies 20%. Forecasting the future is a tricky business, especially when six years of construction lie ahead, followed by forty years of industrial 'life'. I am prepared to make such forecasts, though, as my convictions are based on three extremely solid reasons. These may not seem very original and some of you have perhaps heard me give them before; however, they are sound and will remain so for many years to come. Nuclear energy guarantees security in three major areas: energy policies, the environment and the economy

Evaluating the effectiveness of mixed-integer linear programming for day-ahead hydro-thermal self-scheduling considering price uncertainty and forced outage rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esmaeily, Ali; Ahmadi, Abdollah; Raeisi, Fatima; Ahmadi, Mohammad Reza; Esmaeel Nezhad, Ali; Janghorbani, Mohammadreza

2017-01-01

A new optimization framework based on MILP model is introduced in the paper for the problem of stochastic self-scheduling of hydrothermal units known as HTSS Problem implemented in a joint energy and reserve electricity market with day-ahead mechanism. The proposed MILP framework includes some practical constraints such as the cost due to valve-loading effect, the limit due to DRR and also multi-POZs, which have been less investigated in electricity market models. For the sake of more accuracy, for hydro generating units’ model, multi performance curves are also used. The problem proposed in this paper is formulated using a model on the basis of a stochastic optimization technique while the objective function is maximizing the expected profit utilizing MILP technique. The suggested stochastic self-scheduling model employs the price forecast error in order to take into account the uncertainty due to price. Besides, LMCS is combined with roulette wheel mechanism so that the scenarios corresponding to the non-spinning reserve price and spinning reserve price as well as the energy price at each hour of the scheduling are generated. Finally, the IEEE 118-bus power system is used to indicate the performance and the efficiency of the suggested technique. - Highlights: • Characterizing the uncertainties of price and FOR of units. • Replacing the fixed ramping rate constraints with the dynamic ones. • Proposing linearized model for the valve-point effects of thermal units. • Taking into consideration the multi-POZs relating to the thermal units. • Taking into consideration the multi-performance curves of hydroelectric units.

Investigating requests and expectations for future methods of CEE

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørgaard, Bente; Jensson, Palle; Bayard, Ove

2014-01-01

This article presents a map of requests and expectations for future ‘delivery’ methods of continuing engineering education (CEE) viewed from the perspective of Scandinavian managing directors and their employed engineers. During the last decades numerous attempts have been made to develop new...... into the crystal ball to identify requests and expectations to future methods of CEE. The significance of the investigation will be a conceptual map, which discloses some future focus areas ahead of CEE providers....

Ensemble Kalman filtering with one-step-ahead smoothing

KAUST Repository

Raboudi, Naila F.; Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2018-01-01

error statistics. This limits their representativeness of the background error covariances and, thus, their performance. This work explores the efficiency of the one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing formulation of the Bayesian filtering problem to enhance

One-Day Prediction of Biometeorological Conditions in a Mediterranean Urban Environment Using Artificial Neural Networks Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. P. Moustris

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The present study, deals with the 24-hour prognosis of the outdoor biometeorological conditions in an urban monitoring site within the Greater Athens area, Greece. For this purpose, artificial neural networks (ANNs modelling techniques are applied in order to predict the maximum and the minimum value of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET one day ahead as well as the persistence of the hours with extreme human biometeorological conditions. The findings of the analysis showed that extreme heat stress appears to be 10.0% of the examined hours within the warm period of the year, against extreme cold stress for 22.8% of the hours during the cold period of the year. Finally, human thermal comfort sensation accounts for 81.8% of the hours during the year. Concerning the PET prognosis, ANNs have a remarkable forecasting ability to predict the extreme daily PET values one day ahead, as well as the persistence of extreme conditions during the day, at a significant statistical level of .

Potential changes in atmospheric chemistry in the decades ahead: Climate and biosphere interactions and feedbacks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gaffney, J.S.; Marley, N.A.

1991-10-01

Atmospheric chemistry is a challenging area of research where much knowledge is needed if we are to continue to survive as a species. This paper outlines research needs in the decades ahead in this key area of scientific endeavor. Highlighted are areas of research that are likely to lead to climatic and biospheric impacts and have been given little attention in the past. In particular, the possible organic transformation chemistries that may lead to chemical and physical changes in tropospheric cloud chemistries are highlighted and emphasized as an area where research is needed in the future. 22 refs.

Wind up with continuous intra-day electricity markets? The integration of large-share wind power generation in Denmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karanfil, Fatih; Li, Yuanjing

2015-01-01

This paper suggests an innovative idea to examine the functionality of an electricity intra-day market by testing causality among its fundamental components. As fluctuations of poorly predicted wind power generation are challenging the stability of the current electricity system, an intra-day market design can play an important role in managing wind forecast errors. Using Danish and Nordic data, it investigates the main drivers of the price difference between the intra-day and day-ahead markets, and causality between wind forecast errors and their counterparts. Our results show that the wind and conventional generation forecast errors significantly cause the intra-day price to differ from the day-ahead price, and that the relative intra-day price decreases with the unexpected amount of wind generation. Cross-border electricity exchanges are found to be important to handle wind forecast errors. Additionally, some zonal differences with respect to both causality and impulse responses are detected. This paper provides the first evidence on the persuasive functioning of the intra-day market in the case of Denmark, whereby intermittent production deviations are effectively reduced, and wind forecast errors are jointly handled through the responses from demand, conventional generation, and intra-day international electricity trade. (authors)

Further ahead a communication skills course for business English : teacher's guide

CERN Document Server

Jones-Macziola, Sarah

1998-01-01

Further Ahead is a Business English course at lower-intermediate level. To meet the demand for BEC Preliminary Exam we have added a CD-ROM to the Learner's Book that provides a walk and talk through the exam and practice material. Further Ahead Learner's Book is at the right language level for students who are preparing for BEC Preliminary. The Practice Test with answer key and audio has been specially written for this book by Tricia Aspinall and Jake Allsop, two very experienced test writers.

Further ahead a communication skills course for business English : learner's book

CERN Document Server

Jones-Macziola, Sarah

1998-01-01

Further Ahead is a Business English course at lower-intermediate level. To meet the demand for BEC Preliminary Exam we have added a CD-ROM to the Learner's Book that provides a walk and talk through the exam and practice material. Further Ahead Learner's Book is at the right language level for students who are preparing for BEC Preliminary. The Practice Test with answer key and audio has been specially written for this book by Tricia Aspinall and Jake Allsop, two very experienced test writers.

A stock market for the electric power to the french market opening service; Une bourse de l'electricite au service de l'ouverture du marche francais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-07-01

Less than two years after the european directive of 1996 application in France, the electricity trading operators can dispose of a new negotiation tool. The Powernext society manages the electric power exchange market. This document gives a presentation of Powernext and its main missions and offers. (A.L.B.)

Further ahead a communication skills course for business English : home study book

CERN Document Server

Jones-Macziola, Sarah

1999-01-01

Further Ahead is a Business English course at lower-intermediate level. To meet the demand for BEC Preliminary Exam we have added a CD-ROM to the Learner's Book that provides a walk and talk through the exam and practice material. Further Ahead Learner's Book is at the right language level for students who are preparing for BEC Preliminary. The Practice Test with answer key and audio has been specially written for this book by Tricia Aspinall and Jake Allsop, two very experienced test writers.

Automobile technology of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seiffert, U.; Walzer, P.

1990-01-01

Looking ahead to the year 2000, this fascinating publication takes an in-depth look at new technology which will impact the passenger car of tomorrow. New developments in the areas of performance, reliability, comfort, fuel economy, safety, and environmental compatibility are examined. In this book the authors offer analysis on subjects such as the impact of legislation, the acceptance of ABS, and features of the future dashboard. Offering insight to readers with both technical and general interest in automobiles

Multi-step ahead forecasts for electricity prices using NARX: A new approach, a critical analysis of one-step ahead forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andalib, Arash; Atry, Farid

2009-01-01

The prediction of electricity prices is very important to participants of deregulated markets. Among many properties, a successful prediction tool should be able to capture long-term dependencies in market's historical data. A nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) has proven to enjoy a superior performance to capture such dependencies than other learning machines. However, it is not examined for electricity price forecasting so far. In this paper, we have employed a NARX network for forecasting electricity prices. Our prediction model is then compared with two currently used methods, namely the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and wavelet neural network. All the models are built on the reconstructed state space of market's historical data, which either improves the results or decreases the complexity of learning algorithms. Here, we also criticize the one-step ahead forecasts for electricity price that may suffer a one-term delay and we explain why the mean square error criterion does not guarantee a functional prediction result in this case. To tackle the problem, we pursue multi-step ahead predictions. Results for the Ontario electricity market are presented

Day-ahead load forecast using random forest and expert input selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lahouar, A.; Ben Hadj Slama, J.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A model based on random forests for short term load forecast is proposed. • An expert feature selection is added to refine inputs. • Special attention is paid to customers behavior, load profile and special holidays. • The model is flexible and able to handle complex load signal. • A technical comparison is performed to assess the forecast accuracy. - Abstract: The electrical load forecast is getting more and more important in recent years due to the electricity market deregulation and integration of renewable resources. To overcome the incoming challenges and ensure accurate power prediction for different time horizons, sophisticated intelligent methods are elaborated. Utilization of intelligent forecast algorithms is among main characteristics of smart grids, and is an efficient tool to face uncertainty. Several crucial tasks of power operators such as load dispatch rely on the short term forecast, thus it should be as accurate as possible. To this end, this paper proposes a short term load predictor, able to forecast the next 24 h of load. Using random forest, characterized by immunity to parameter variations and internal cross validation, the model is constructed following an online learning process. The inputs are refined by expert feature selection using a set of if–then rules, in order to include the own user specifications about the country weather or market, and to generalize the forecast ability. The proposed approach is tested through a real historical set from the Tunisian Power Company, and the simulation shows accurate and satisfactory results for one day in advance, with an average error exceeding rarely 2.3%. The model is validated for regular working days and weekends, and special attention is paid to moving holidays, following non Gregorian calendar

Optimal Day-Ahead Scheduling of a Hybrid Electric Grid Using Weather Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-01

with 214 turbines [22]. In July 2011, the DoD declared that a complete study of 217 wind farm projects proposed in 35 states and Puerto Rico found...14. SUBJECT TERMS Hybrid electric grid , Microgrid , Hybrid renewable energy system , energy management center, optimization, Day...electric grid. In the case of a hybrid electric grid (HEG), or hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) where the microgrid can be connected to the commercial

Future planning in preschool children.

Science.gov (United States)

Moffett, Lillie; Moll, Henrike; FitzGibbon, Lily

2018-05-01

The capacity to plan ahead and provide the means for future ends is an important part of human practical reasoning. When this capacity develops in ontogeny is the matter of an ongoing debate. In this study, 4- and 5-year-olds performed a future planning task in which they had to create the means (a picture of a particular object, e.g., a banana) that was necessary to address a future end (of completing a game in which such a picture was missing). Children of both ages drew more targets than children in a control condition in which there was no future end to be pursued. Along with prior findings, the results suggest a major progression in children's future thinking between 3 and 5 years. Our findings expand on prior knowledge by showing that young children cannot only identify the probate means to future ends but determine such ends and create the means to achieve them, thus offering compelling evidence for future planning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Voulgarakis

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000 mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8 ± 1.6 yr (9.3 ± 0.9 yr when only including selected models, lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 ± 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6, while increases of 8.5 ± 10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5. In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with

An experimental and computational investigation of electrical resistivity imaging for prediction ahead of tunnel boring machines

Science.gov (United States)

Schaeffer, Kevin P.

Tunnel boring machines (TBMs) are routinely used for the excavation of tunnels across a range of ground conditions, from hard rock to soft ground. In complex ground conditions and in urban environments, the TBM susceptible to damage due to uncertainty of what lies ahead of the tunnel face. The research presented here explores the application of electrical resistivity theory for use in the TBM tunneling environment to detect changing conditions ahead of the machine. Electrical resistivity offers a real-time and continuous imaging solution to increase the resolution of information along the tunnel alignment and may even unveil previously unknown geologic or man-made features ahead of the TBM. The studies presented herein, break down the tunneling environment and the electrical system to understand how its fundamental parameters can be isolated and tested, identifying how they influence the ability to predict changes ahead of the tunnel face. A proof-of-concept, scaled experimental model was constructed in order assess the ability of the model to predict a metal pipe (or rod) ahead of face as the TBM excavates through a saturated sand. The model shows that a prediction of up to three tunnel diameters could be achieved, but the unique presence of the pipe (or rod) could not be concluded with certainty. Full scale finite element models were developed in order evaluate the various influences on the ability to detect changing conditions ahead of the face. Results show that TBM/tunnel geometry, TBM type, and electrode geometry can drastically influence prediction ahead of the face by tens of meters. In certain conditions (i.e., small TBM diameter, low cover depth, large material contrasts), changes can be detected over 100 meters in front of the TBM. Various electrode arrays were considered and show that in order to better detect more finite differences (e.g., boulder, lens, pipe), the use of individual cutting tools as electrodes is highly advantageous to increase spatial

Cybersecurity:The Road Ahead for Defense Acquisition

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-01

contested environment. Cybersecurity being treated as key “leader business ” is criti- cal to the overall cybersecurity posture of our DoD acquisi... Cybersecurity The Road Ahead for Defense Acquisition Steve Mills n Steve Monks Mills and Monks are professors of Program Management at the Defense...not only on adequate funding for leaps in technology but also on honing that technology to protect the capability against cybersecurity threats. The

Media-Educational Habitus of Future Educators in the Context of Education in Day-Care Centers

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrichs-Liesenkötter, Henrike

2015-01-01

This research explores these questions: (1) How are the forms of media-educational habitus of future educators shaped? (2) What conditions influence whether or not media education is done in day-care centers? The qualitative study consists of six semi-structured interviews with media education teachers in educator training, four focus group…

Subjective Straight Ahead Orientation in Microgravity

Science.gov (United States)

Clement, G.; Reschke, M. F.; Wood, S. J.

2015-01-01

This joint ESA NASA study will address adaptive changes in spatial orientation related to the subjective straight ahead and the use of a vibrotactile sensory aid to reduce perceptual errors. The study will be conducted before and after long-duration expeditions to the International Space Station (ISS) to examine how spatial processing of target location is altered following exposure to microgravity. This study addresses the sensorimotor research gap to "determine the changes in sensorimotor function over the course of a mission and during recovery after landing."

Look-ahead procedures for Lanczos-type product methods based on three-term recurrences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutknecht, M.H.; Ressel, K.J. [Swiss Center for Scientific Computing, Zuerich (Switzerland)

1996-12-31

Lanczos-type product methods for the solution of large sparse non-Hermitian linear systems either square the Lanczos process or combine it with a local minimization of the residual. They inherit from the underlying Lanczos process the danger of breakdown. For various Lanczos-type product methods that are based on the Lanczos three-term recurrence, look-ahead versions are presented, which avoid such breakdowns or near breakdowns with a small computational overhead. Different look-ahead strategies are discussed and their efficiency is demonstrated in several numerical examples.

Ensemble Kalman filtering with one-step-ahead smoothing

KAUST Repository

Raboudi, Naila F.

2018-01-11

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely used for sequential data assimilation. It operates as a succession of forecast and analysis steps. In realistic large-scale applications, EnKFs are implemented with small ensembles and poorly known model error statistics. This limits their representativeness of the background error covariances and, thus, their performance. This work explores the efficiency of the one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing formulation of the Bayesian filtering problem to enhance the data assimilation performance of EnKFs. Filtering with OSA smoothing introduces an updated step with future observations, conditioning the ensemble sampling with more information. This should provide an improved background ensemble in the analysis step, which may help to mitigate the suboptimal character of EnKF-based methods. Here, the authors demonstrate the efficiency of a stochastic EnKF with OSA smoothing for state estimation. They then introduce a deterministic-like EnKF-OSA based on the singular evolutive interpolated ensemble Kalman (SEIK) filter. The authors show that the proposed SEIK-OSA outperforms both SEIK, as it efficiently exploits the data twice, and the stochastic EnKF-OSA, as it avoids observational error undersampling. They present extensive assimilation results from numerical experiments conducted with the Lorenz-96 model to demonstrate SEIK-OSA’s capabilities.

Spot Markets Indices as Benchmarks of Formation of Future Price Trends in the Power Exchanges of Eastern Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Polikevych Nataliya I.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article is concerned with a theoretical generalization of the use of indices for electric power at the European spot exchanges and elaborating proposals on establishment of a similar spot index for the Ukrainian power exchange. 16 indices that are published daily by the power exchanges BSP Regional Energy Exchange, Power Exchange Central Europe, Polish Power Exchange and Opcom have been analyzed. It has been indicated that these indices are used for electricity price forecasting and monitoring the situation in the power market. The article examines the way spot indices are calculated by power exchanges, based on the value of the arithmetic average of market prices «day ahead». Imperfection of such way of calculation for price index values has been substantiated. The key characteristics of the future price index for Ukrainian spot market as benchmarks within the introduction of futures contracts for electricity have been identified.

Introduction to Retail Payments : Mapping Out the Road Ahead

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bolt, Wilko; Mester, Loretta J.

2017-01-01

This article introduces four papers that were presented at a payments conference “Retail Payments: Mapping Out the Road Ahead,” which was held at De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam in April of 2016. These papers focus on various behavioral aspects of consumers and merchants in their choice and

Technical results French electricity supply industry 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

This booklet presents provisional results for the French electricity supply industry (excluding overseas territories). Data come from measures made by RTE, completed by various actors of the power system and by estimations made by RTE. Data from 2001 to 2005 were updated in order to take into account additional information given by different actors of the electrical energy sector. Contents: 1 - General results in France (National consumption, Physical exchanges with foreign countries, Net generation, Energy consumed, Electrical energy balance in France, Energy generated); 2 - Consumption in France (Annual consumption, Weekly consumption in 2007, Temperature, Daily consumption); 3 - Electrical energy flows (End consumption by type of customer, Physical flows of electrical energy, Physical exchanges with foreign countries); 4 - Trend of the electricity market (Cross-border contractual exchanges, Balance Responsible Entities, Sales of generation capacity auction, Energy sales on Powernext Day-Ahead TM , Balancing mechanism); 5 - Generation in France (Installed capacity and generation by type of facility, thermal, hydro, other renewable energy sources); 6 - Equipment on the electricity network (Equipment in operation as of 31 December); 7 - Power system operation (Equivalent time of interruption, Long outage frequency, Short outage frequency, Number of annual Significant System Events by severity); 8 - Access to the RTE network; 9 - Development over the past 15 years (Facilities in France at year-end, Annual results in France); 10 - International comparisons (Energy data of UCTE countries in 2006); 11 - Terminology

Assessing Future Flood Hazards for Adaptation Planning in a Northern European Coastal Community

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, Niels H.; Molgaard, Mads R.

2016-01-01

From a transdisciplinary approach in the town of Thyboron, Denmark, we investigate couplings between sea state (i.e., mean and extreme) and flooding hazards today and ahead. This includes analyses of change and variability in the groundwater table, precipitation, land motion, geotechnical ground ......, and it will provide for more holistic solutions that both serve to protect the town and allow for business development and better municipal planning ahead....... properties, sewerage systems and other infrastructure to outline a more complete platform for the integration of knowledge into climate adaptation schemes at this highly vulnerable coastal location. It involves the engagement of the main stakeholders who, although having different responsibilities, interests......, needs of knowledge and data, and different timeframes for investment and planning, must join in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead to provide for better adaptation measures. Apart from obvious adverse effects from future storm surge events, knowledge about the coupled effects...

One-Step-Ahead Predictive Control for Hydroturbine Governor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhihuai Xiao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The hydroturbine generator regulating system can be considered as one system synthetically integrating water, machine, and electricity. It is a complex and nonlinear system, and its configuration and parameters are time-dependent. A one-step-ahead predictive control based on on-line trained neural networks (NNs for hydroturbine governor with variation in gate position is described in this paper. The proposed control algorithm consists of a one-step-ahead neuropredictor that tracks the dynamic characteristics of the plant and predicts its output and a neurocontroller to generate the optimal control signal. The weights of two NNs, initially trained off-line, are updated on-line according to the scalar error. The proposed controller can thus track operating conditions in real-time and produce the optimal control signal over the wide operating range. Only the inputs and outputs of the generator are measured and there is no need to determine the other states of the generator. Simulations have been performed with varying operating conditions and different disturbances to compare the performance of the proposed controller with that of a conventional PID controller and validate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

TLEP design study forges ahead

CERN Multimedia

Alain Blondel & Mike Koratzinos

2013-01-01

As the Future Circular Collider (FCC) study is launched, one of its component parts, TLEP, enjoys a successful workshop at CERN. The FCC study looks at all options for a future circular collider with the emphasis on a hadron machine with TLEP as a possible intermediate step.   The poster of the sixth TLEP workshop that took place at CERN. Japanese artist Kazuya Akimoto kindly agreed to the use of one of his works as the basis for the poster’s backdrop. October 16 to 18 saw a three-day workshop on TLEP, the sixth in the series. The workshop took place at CERN and was well attended, informative and stimulating. To name just one of the influential people present, Herwig Schopper, ex-Director General of CERN and instrumental in the approval, construction and success of LEP, was among the participants. But what exactly is TLEP? The name was, somehow serendipitously, coined from future lepton collider option studies and stands for triple-LEP, a machine three times the size of LEP. But th...

Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

2017-10-01

The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

75 FR 42411 - Orders Finding That the SP-15 Financial Day-Ahead LMP Peak Daily Contract; SP-15 Financial Day...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-21

...''), an exempt commercial market (``ECM'') under sections 2(h)(3)-(5) of the Commodity Exchange Act (``CEA'' or the ``Act''), perform a significant price discovery function pursuant to section 2(h)(7) of the... Perform a Significant Price Discovery Function AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ACTION: Final...

PSO-MISMO modeling strategy for multistep-ahead time series prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Yukun; Xiong, Tao; Hu, Zhongyi

2014-05-01

Multistep-ahead time series prediction is one of the most challenging research topics in the field of time series modeling and prediction, and is continually under research. Recently, the multiple-input several multiple-outputs (MISMO) modeling strategy has been proposed as a promising alternative for multistep-ahead time series prediction, exhibiting advantages compared with the two currently dominating strategies, the iterated and the direct strategies. Built on the established MISMO strategy, this paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based MISMO modeling strategy, which is capable of determining the number of sub-models in a self-adaptive mode, with varying prediction horizons. Rather than deriving crisp divides with equal-size s prediction horizons from the established MISMO, the proposed PSO-MISMO strategy, implemented with neural networks, employs a heuristic to create flexible divides with varying sizes of prediction horizons and to generate corresponding sub-models, providing considerable flexibility in model construction, which has been validated with simulated and real datasets.

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Model for Scheduling the Operation of a Wind Pumped-Storage Hybrid Power Station: Overcoming Forecasting Errors to Ensure Reliability of Supply to the Grid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jakub Jurasz

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Variable renewable energy sources (VRES, such as solarphotovoltaic (PV and wind turbines (WT, are starting to play a significant role in several energy systems around the globe. To overcome the problem of their non-dispatchable and stochastic nature, several approaches have been proposed so far. This paper describes a novel mathematical model for scheduling the operation of a wind-powered pumped-storage hydroelectricity (PSH hybrid for 25 to 48 h ahead. The model is based on mathematical programming and wind speed forecasts for the next 1 to 24 h, along with predicted upper reservoir occupancy for the 24th hour ahead. The results indicate that by coupling a 2-MW conventional wind turbine with a PSH of energy storing capacity equal to 54 MWh it is possible to significantly reduce the intraday energy generation coefficient of variation from 31% for pure wind turbine to 1.15% for a wind-powered PSH The scheduling errors calculated based on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE are significantly smaller for such a coupling than those seen for wind generation forecasts, at 2.39% and 27%, respectively. This is even stronger emphasized by the fact that, those for wind generation were calculated for forecasts made for the next 1 to 24 h, while those for scheduled generation were calculated for forecasts made for the next 25 to 48 h. The results clearly show that the proposed scheduling approach ensures the high reliability of the WT–PSH energy source.

THE YOUTH PERSPECTIVE MANAGER FUTURE CHALLENGES AHEAD TO PROPOSED BY ORGANIZATIONAL STUDIES: A PRELIMINARY DIAGNOSIS AND ITS FUTURE PERFORMANCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wesley Antonio Gonçalves

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The study aimed to diagnose as young students of management define and realize the factors related to man and the fear of freedom to develop their future assignments subjective as future managers and their subsequent execution. To achieve the proposal, we employed the qualitative research method using script focused in order to observe the ontology interview. Respondents showed be used in your academic life conceptual inclinations towards various definitions found in the literature which litigiou the assumptions of the authors in relation to human and professional activities they will face as future managers, even taking into account the different decades (time. Keywords: Perspectives of human beings. The fear of freedom. Student management. People management. Organizational Studies.

Current and Future Parts Management at NASA

Science.gov (United States)

Sampson, Michael J.

2011-01-01

This presentation provides a high level view of current and future electronic parts management at NASA. It describes a current perspective of the new human space flight direction that NASA is beginning to take and how that could influence parts management in the future. It provides an overview of current NASA electronic parts policy and how that is implemented at the NASA flight Centers. It also describes some of the technical challenges that lie ahead and suggests approaches for their mitigation. These challenges include: advanced packaging, obsolescence and counterfeits, the global supply chain and Commercial Crew, a new direction by which NASA will utilize commercial launch vehicles to get astronauts to the International Space Station.

Modelling the day to day wind variability offshore central Chile at about 30 deg. south

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rutllant, J.

1994-07-01

Cycles of strengthening and relaxation of the winds offshore 30 degrees S at central Chile, are related to the propagation of coastal-lows, a year-round phenomenon occurring with periodicities of about one in five days. Simple physical modelling of the day to day variability of the alongshore wind component at a coastal strip extending offshore up to the Rossby deformation radius of these wave perturbations, is presented in terms of the relevant horizontal pressure gradients and the ageostrophic components arising from the coastal-low propagation. The results of 5-day composites of 8 wind-events each, at the winter and summer halves of the annual cycle, respectively; lead to a good agreement between the observed phase-lag of the winds with respect to the pressure forcing field, stressing the importance of the ageostrophic wind components at the extremes of the pressure wave perturbation associated with the passage of coastal-lows over the Point Lengua de Vaca (30 15 S) area. A possible contribution of the upwelling-favorable wind enhancement at the time of the pressure rise and subsequent fall, ahead of the coastal-low, is postulated through an upwelling-front low-level jet, that would be carried onshore and closer to the surface by the combination of the enhanced coastal upwelling, the coastal depression of the subsidence inversion base and the coastal ageostrophic wind components during the passage of the leading edge of the coastal lows. (author). 26 refs, 5 figs, 1 tab

Volunteers: the key that opens the doors for the Open Days

CERN Multimedia

Antonella Del Rosso

2013-01-01

2013: the year that CERN opens its doors to the public. 2013 is also the approximate number of volunteers needed to ensure that these Open Days (JPO) go ahead smoothly. Whatever your personnel status and function, you, the volunteers, are the key without which the Laboratory’s doors could not really open. Sign up now!   1,500 of you volunteered for the LHC2008 open days to mark the inauguration of the LHC. This year, with roughly 20% more visitors expected across the CERN sites over the two days, the organisers envisage closer to 2,000 volunteers. “We will be holding a wide variety of activities across the Laboratory’s various sites,” explains Virginie Blondeau, the member of the Open Days organising team in charge of recruiting and training volunteers. “As well as guides for the experiments, we will also need volunteers to welcome and direct visitors, to help with logistics and to man the sales points, etc.” The volunteers will rec...

Linear Look-ahead in Conjunctive Cells: An Entorhinal Mechanism for Vector-Based Navigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John L Kubie

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The crisp organization of the firing bumps of entorhinal grid cells and conjunctive cells leads to the notion that the entorhinal cortex may compute linear navigation routes. Specifically, we propose a process, termed linear look-ahead, by which a stationary animal could compute a series of locations in the direction it is facing. We speculate that this computation could be achieved through learned patterns of connection strengths among entorhinal neurons. This paper has three sections. First, we describe the minimal grid cell properties that will be built into our network. Specifically, the network relies of rigid modules of neurons, where all members have identical grid scale and orientation, but differ in spatial phase. Additionally, these neurons must be densely interconnected with synapses that are modifiable early in the animal’s life. Second, we investigate whether plasticity during short bouts of locomotion could induce patterns of connections amongst grid cells or conjunctive cells. Finally, we run a simulation to test whether the learned connection patterns can exhibit linear look-ahead. Our results are straightforward. A simulated 30-minute walk produces weak strengthening of synapses between grid cells that do not support linear look-ahead. Similar training in a conjunctive-cell module produces a small subset of very strong connections between cells. These strong pairs have three properties: The pre- and post-synaptic cells have similar heading direction. The cell pairs have neighboring grid bumps. Finally, the spatial offset of firing bumps of the cell pair is in the direction of the common heading preference. Such a module can produce strong and accurate linear look ahead starting in any location and extending in any direction. We speculate that this process may: 1. compute linear paths to goals; 2. update grid cell firing during navigation; and 3. stabilize the rigid modules of grid cells and conjunctive cells.

Future of palliative medicine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sushma Bhatnagar

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A ′need-supply′ and ′requirement-distribution mismatch′ along with a continuingneed explosion are the biggest hurdles faced by palliative medicine today. It is the need of the hour to provide an unbiased, equitable and evidence-based palliative care to those in need irrespective of the diagnosis, prognosis, social and economic status or geographical location. Palliative care as a fundamental human right, ensuring provision throughout the illness spectrum, global as well as region-specific capacity building, uniform availability of essential drugs at an affordable price, a multidisciplinary team approachand caregiver-support are some of the achievable goals for the future. This supplanted with a strong political commitment, professional dedication and ′public-private partnerships′ are necessaryto tackle the existing hurdles and the exponentially increasing future need. For effectively going ahead it is of utmost importance to integrate palliative medicine into medical education, healthcare system and societal framework.

Day-to-day reliability of gait characteristics in rats

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Raffalt, Peter Christian; Nielsen, Louise R; Madsen, Stefan

2018-01-01

day-to-day reliability of the gait pattern parameters observed in rats during treadmill walking. The results of the present study may serve as a reference material that can help future intervention studies on rat gait characteristics both with respect to the selection of outcome measures...

How To Create A Spacefaring Civilization (And Why Spacelaw Must Go Ahead!)

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, M.

2002-01-01

The human settlement of Mars is not so far away, and it is necessary to transform our current situation into a spacefaring civilization. But, how can we do it? First of all, we have to batter down the political, financial and engineer obstacles that have thus far obstructed humanity from entering the real space age. Then, we have to discuss the possibilities inherent in human activity for peering out into the universe and to explore the resources that will guarantee humankind's future existence. Finally, we have to solve technological and scientific problems associated with interstellar travels and the detection of other intelligent species in space. That's why spacelaw must go ahead. Space is the new face of industry and commerce, because it is plenty of resources for doing business. Matters such as space property and insurance; urban planning; space-business opportunities (space tourism, establishment of worldwide communication satellite networks, export of satellites for launch, exploitation of natural resources...); military uses of outer space; or national licensing for satellite services must be solve by spacelaw before they crop up.

The way ahead through European collaboration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaughan, R.D.

1987-01-01

The paper on the ''Way ahead through European Collaboration'' was presented to the seminar on ''European commercial fast reactor programme'', London, 1987. A description is given of the world energy consumption, world nuclear energy consumption, and uranium resources. It is suggested that the fast reactor is likely to be developed first in Western Europe, and more particularly in the European Economic Community. Collaboration in Europe has taken a positive step forward with the decision of the European Fast Reactor Utilities Group to open a dialogue with the design and construction companies, working together. The companies are invited to prepare jointly a new design for a demonstration fast reactor to be ordered in the early 1990's. (U.K.)

Thinking Ahead on Deep Brain Stimulation: An Analysis of the Ethical Implications of a Developing Technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Johansson, Veronica; Garwicz, Martin; Kanje, Martin; Halldenius, Lena; Schouenborg, Jens

2014-01-01

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is a developing technology. New generations of DBS technology are already in the pipeline, yet this particular fact has been largely ignored among ethicists interested in DBS. Focusing only on ethical concerns raised by the current DBS technology is, albeit necessary, not sufficient. Since current bioethical concerns raised by a specific technology could be quite different from the concerns it will raise a couple of years ahead, an ethical analysis should be sensitive to such alterations, or it could end up with results that soon become dated. The goal of this analysis is to address these changing bioethical concerns, to think ahead on upcoming and future DBS concerns both in terms of a changing technology and changing moral attitudes. By employing the distinction between inherent and noninherent bioethical concerns we identify and make explicit the particular limits and potentials for change within each category, respectively, including how present and upcoming bioethical concerns regarding DBS emerge and become obsolete. Many of the currently identified ethical problems with DBS, such as stimulation-induced mania, are a result of suboptimal technology. These challenges could be addressed by technical advances, while for instance perceptions of an altered body image caused by the mere awareness of having an implant may not. Other concerns will not emerge until the technology has become sophisticated enough for new uses to be realized, such as concerns on DBS for enhancement purposes. As a part of the present analysis, concerns regarding authenticity are used as an example.

A new cellular automata model of traffic flow with negative exponential weighted look-ahead potential

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Xiao; Zheng, Wei-Fan; Jiang, Bao-Shan; Zhang, Ji-Ye

2016-10-01

With the development of traffic systems, some issues such as traffic jams become more and more serious. Efficient traffic flow theory is needed to guide the overall controlling, organizing and management of traffic systems. On the basis of the cellular automata model and the traffic flow model with look-ahead potential, a new cellular automata traffic flow model with negative exponential weighted look-ahead potential is presented in this paper. By introducing the negative exponential weighting coefficient into the look-ahead potential and endowing the potential of vehicles closer to the driver with a greater coefficient, the modeling process is more suitable for the driver’s random decision-making process which is based on the traffic environment that the driver is facing. The fundamental diagrams for different weighting parameters are obtained by using numerical simulations which show that the negative exponential weighting coefficient has an obvious effect on high density traffic flux. The complex high density non-linear traffic behavior is also reproduced by numerical simulations. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11572264, 11172247, 11402214, and 61373009).

IAEA Mission Sees Significant Progress in Georgia’s Regulatory Framework, Challenges Ahead

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2018-01-01

An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) team of experts said Georgia has made significant progress in strengthening its regulatory framework for nuclear and radiation safety. The team also pointed to challenges ahead as Georgia seeks to achieve further progress. The Integrated Regulatory Review Service (IRRS) team concluded a 10-day mission on 28 February to assess the regulatory safety framework in Georgia. The mission was conducted at the request of the Government and hosted by the Agency of Nuclear and Radiation Safety (ANRS), which is responsible for regulatory oversight in the country. IRRS missions are designed to strengthen the effectiveness of the national safety regulatory infrastructure, while recognizing the responsibility of each State to ensure nuclear and radiation safety. Georgia uses radioactive sources in medicine and industry and operates radioactive waste management facilities. It has decommissioned its only research reactor and has no nuclear power plants. In recent years, the Government and ANRS, with assistance from the IAEA, introduced new safety regulations and increased the number of regulatory inspections.

Day-ahead price forecasting in restructured power systems using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vahidinasab, V.; Jadid, S.; Kazemi, A.

2008-01-01

Over the past 15 years most electricity supply companies around the world have been restructured from monopoly utilities to deregulated competitive electricity markets. Market participants in the restructured electricity markets find short-term electricity price forecasting (STPF) crucial in formulating their risk management strategies. They need to know future electricity prices as their profitability depends on them. This research project classifies and compares different techniques of electricity price forecasting in the literature and selects artificial neural networks (ANN) as a suitable method for price forecasting. To perform this task, market knowledge should be used to optimize the selection of input data for an electricity price forecasting tool. Then sensitivity analysis is used in this research to aid in the selection of the optimum inputs of the ANN and fuzzy c-mean (FCM) algorithm is used for daily load pattern clustering. Finally, ANN with a modified Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) learning algorithm are implemented for forecasting prices in Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market. The forecasting results were compared with the previous works and showed that the results are reasonable and accurate. (author)

CONNECTION OF TURN AHEAD AND TURN BACK WITH MOTORIC ABILITIES OF THE FIFTH GRADE STUDENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jovica Petković

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The research is done for the purpose of determination and defining of the level of connection between some motoric abilities with success in realization of programmed contents from the area of gymnastics (turn ahead and turn back. The research is done on the sample of fifty one students from the fifth grade of Elementary School, on ten motoric tests and on two specific motoric assignments – turn ahead and turn back. The results of this research clearly point that there exist the multitude of statistically important coefficients of correlation between treated motoric abilities and applied motoric assignments.

The labor force of the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Norwood, J L

1987-07-01

In the decades ahead, the US labor force will reflect changes in the industrial structure, with declines in some manufacturing industries and expansion in service industries. The services sector is so diverse that the jobs within it cannot be categorized as either high wage or low wage. The service-producing sector employs 85% of professional specialty workers in the US. In general, information on compensation trends indicates that greater increases in compensation have occurred for workers in service-producing as opposed to goods-producing industries. The increase in service sector jobs has created opportunities for women to enter the labor force and, at present, 5 out of 6 women work in this sector compared to fewer than 2 out of 3 men. Productivity growth rates in the service-producing industries vary substantially and are strongly affected by the business cycle. Central to employment opportunities in the years ahead will be the effect of new technology. To date, the aggregate effect of new technology has been increased employment and higher living standards. Although retraining programs should be in place, the scenario of a huge technology-created labor surplus seems unlikely. In fact, a more likely problem is a shortage of labor resulting from earlier labor force withdrawal and demographic aging of the population. Those in the 25-54-year age group will represent a larger share of the labor force in the years ahead. In addition, blacks are expected to account for 20% of the labor force growth in the next decade. Finally, given increasing labor force participation rates among mothers, employers may have to provide more flexible work schedules, assistance with day care, and more attractive benefits packages.

Characteristics of high-latitude precursor flows ahead of dipolarization fronts

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jia-Zheng; Zhou, Xu-Zhi; Runov, Andrei; Angelopoulos, Vassilis; Liu, Jiang; Pan, Dong-Xiao; Zong, Qiu-Gang

2017-05-01

Dipolarization fronts (DFs), earthward propagating structures in the magnetotail current sheet characterized by sharp enhancements of northward magnetic field, are capable of converting electromagnetic energy into particle kinetic energy. The ions previously accelerated and reflected at the DFs can contribute to plasma flows ahead of the fronts, which have been identified as DF precursor flows in both the near-equatorial plasma sheet and far from it, near the plasma sheet boundary. Using observations from the THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) spacecraft, we show that the earthward particle and energy flux enhancements ahead of DFs are statistically larger farther away from the neutral sheet (at high latitudes) than in the near-equatorial region. High-latitude particle and energy fluxes on the DF dawnside are found to be significantly greater than those on the duskside, which is opposite to the dawn-dusk asymmetries previously found near the equatorial region. Using forward and backward tracing test-particle simulations, we then explain and reproduce the observed latitude-dependent characteristics of DF precursor flows, providing a better understanding of ion dynamics associated with dipolarization fronts.

Enterprise Risk Management: The Way Ahead for DRDC within the DND Enterprise

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-01

Management – Integrated Framework, COSO Executive Summary, Sept 2004 2. Institute of Risk Management (IRM) Risk Management Standard, 2002 3...... Risk Management The Way Ahead for DRDC within the DND Enterprise R.G. Dickinson Dr. B.W. Taylor DRDC CORA Defence R&D Canada – CORA

Day-ahead deregulated electricity market price forecasting using neural network input featured by DCT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anbazhagan, S.; Kumarappan, N.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We presented DCT input featured FFNN model for forecasting in Spain market. • The key factors impacting electricity price forecasting are historical prices. • Past 42 days were trained and the next 7 days were forecasted. • The proposed approach has a simple and better NN structure. • The DCT-FFNN mode is effective and less computation time than the recent models. - Abstract: In a deregulated market, a number of factors determined the outcome of electricity price and displays a perplexed and maverick fluctuation. Both power producers and consumers needs single compact and robust price forecasting tool in order to maximize their profits and utilities. In order to achieve the helter–skelter kind of electricity price, one dimensional discrete cosine transforms (DCT) input featured feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is modeled (DCT-FFNN). The proposed FFNN is a single compact and robust architecture (without hybridizing the various hard and soft computing models). It has been predicted that the DCT-FFNN model is close to the state of the art can be achieved with less computation time. The proposed DCT-FFNN approach is compared with 17 other recent approaches to estimate the market clearing prices of mainland Spain. Finally, the accuracy of the price forecasting is also applied to the electricity market of New York in year 2010 that shows the effectiveness of the proposed DCT-FFNN approach

How uncertain are day-ahead wind forecasts?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grimit, E. [3TIER Environmental Forecast Group, Seattle, WA (United States)

2006-07-01

Recent advances in the combination of weather forecast ensembles with Bayesian statistical techniques have helped to address uncertainties in wind forecasting. Weather forecast ensembles are a collection of numerical weather predictions. The combination of several equally-skilled forecasts typically results in a consensus forecast with greater accuracy. The distribution of forecasts also provides an estimate of forecast inaccuracy. However, weather forecast ensembles tend to be under-dispersive, and not all forecast uncertainties can be taken into account. In order to address these issues, a multi-variate linear regression approach was used to correct the forecast bias for each ensemble member separately. Bayesian model averaging was used to provide a predictive probability density function to allow for multi-modal probability distributions. A test location in eastern Canada was used to demonstrate the approach. Results of the test showed that the method improved wind forecasts and generated reliable prediction intervals. Prediction intervals were much shorter than comparable intervals based on a single forecast or on historical observations alone. It was concluded that the approach will provide economic benefits to both wind energy developers and investors. refs., tabs., figs.

How Effective Leaders Harness the Future.

Science.gov (United States)

Souba, Wiley; Souba, Matthew

2018-02-01

Human beings are fundamentally future oriented. Most of our decisions and undertakings are for the sake of a future to which we are committed or obligated. This future orientation is essential to effective leadership in health care, especially during this time of significant reform, when people are at risk of becoming cynical and disengaged. Conventional thinking holds that our effectiveness as leaders is primarily a function of what we have learned in the past-our knowledge, expertise, and experience. In contrast, the emerging model contends that our effectiveness is also a function of how the future (outcome) of our leadership challenges "shows up" for us. If, despite daunting circumstances, we can "see" an aspired future ahead, we are more likely to commit and engage. Our story of the future becomes the "narrative frame" through which we see and tackle leadership challenges today. Because organizations are fundamentally networks of conversations, an organization's ability to create new language practices is tantamount to its ability to evolve. What makes the future compelling is the embodiment of our deepest convictions and ideals in our image of the future. Because health care reform has challenged the medical profession along the entire spectrum of its traditional values and roles, working toward a unifying vision of the future has been difficult. To enroll others in creating a better future, effective leaders must underscore the purpose and importance of their work and motivate them with inspiring stories.

Present-day radiotherapy: analysis of the sate of the art and outlook in the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dar'yalova, S.P.; Bojko, A.V.; Chernichenko, A.V.; Kiceleva, E.S.; Kvasov, V.A.

1995-01-01

Analyzes the development of radiotherapy as exemplified by experience gained by P.A.Herzen Oncological Research Dulines the priority of radiotherapy for the nearest future. It is, firet and foremost, chemoradiotherapy making use of both, intravenous polychemotherapy and intra-and paratumoral injection of drugs: intraoperative exposure to electron beam of different energies using gaseous hypoxia; laser exposure together with combined radiotherapy for the treatment of tracheobronchial, esofophageal, rectal, and genital cancers. Validates and presents the results of nontraditional protocols of downs fractionation and radiomodifier use. Formulates the ideology of present-day radiotherapy. 21 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

Overcoming challenges to secure a renewable future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McGrath, Rob; Philpott, Angie; Bown, Charles W.; Thompson, Robert; Dunderdale, Kathy

2010-09-15

Newfoundland and Labrador is on the brink of two extraordinary energy achievements: 1) becoming one of the world's only jurisdictions thermal generation almost entirely; and 2) making a huge contribution of renewable energy to North America. These achievements require the development of the 3,000 MW Lower Churchill Hydroelectric Project; however, the Project will not be developed without a business case to support it. This paper will highlight how the province, through its Energy Plan, has set the path forward for the future development of its renewable resources, including how it plans to overcome some of the challenges ahead.

Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D. Levitt

2004-11-09

The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides.

Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levitt, D.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides

Assessing future flood hazards for adaptation planning in a northern European coastal community

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlo eSorensen

2016-05-01

Full Text Available From a transdisciplinary approach in the town of Thyboron, Denmark, we investigate couplings between sea state (i.e. mean and extreme and flooding hazards today and ahead. This includes analyses of change and variability in the groundwater table, precipitation, land motion, geotechnical ground properties, sewerage systems and other infrastructure to outline a more complete platform for the integration of knowledge into climate adaptation schemes at this highly vulnerable coastal location. It involves the engagement of the main stakeholders who, although having different responsibilities, interests, needs of knowledge and data, and different timeframes for investment and planning, must join in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead to provide for better adaptation measures. Apart from obvious adverse effects from future storm surge events, knowledge about the coupled effects of the abovementioned parameters needs to be taken into account to reach optimal mitigation and adaptation measures. Through stakeholder interviews it becomes clear that an enhanced focus on transdisciplinary research is a viable way forward to develop such measures: it will bring in more knowledge, a broader scope, and it will provide for more holistic solutions that both serve to protect the town and allow for business development and better municipal planning ahead.

The future since Chernobyl

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warnock, Mary.

1986-01-01

The author reviews three books about energy policy, particularly in relation to nuclear energy. From these, which were all published before the Chernobyl disaster, the reviewer identifies two main problems relating to nuclear energy - immediate safety and disposal of nuclear waste. Risk analysis is seen as unhelpful in allaying public fears as it is the nature of the risk of nuclear accidents, rather than its numerical probability, that is frightening. A paper on the assessment of Best Practical Environmental Options (BPEO) for management of low and intermediate-level solid radioactive waste, is referred to when commenting on nuclear waste disposal. Ordinary people have two political obligations with respect to nuclear energy - first to demand knowledge and examine further reassuring information. Risks taken will then be taken with proper information obtained first. Secondly, to look beyond the short-term consequences of a nuclear programme. To fulfill these obligations policy-makers have to be educated to be open and honest about the nuclear future and to be seen to be looking further ahead than the immediate future. (U.K.)

Do inflation-linked bonds contain information about future inflation?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Valentim Machado Vicente

2013-06-01

Full Text Available There is a widespread belief that inflation-linked bonds are a direct source of information about inflation expectations. In this paper we address this issue by analyzing the relationship between break-even inflation (the difference between nominal and real yields and future inflation. The dataset is extracted from Brazilian Treasury bonds covering the period from April 2005 to April 2011. We find that break-even inflation is an unbiased forecast only of the 3-month and 6-month ahead inflation. For medium horizons (12 and 18 months, break-even inflation has weak explanatory power of future inflation. Over long horizons (24 and 30 months, we report a significant, but counterintuitive, negative relationship between the break-even and realized inflation rates.

Evaluating the Subjective Straight Ahead Before and After Spaceflight

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, D. J.; Wood, S. J.; Reschke, M. F.; Clement, G.

2017-01-01

This joint European Space Agency (ESA) - NASA study will address adaptive changes in spatial orientation related to the subjective straight ahead and the use of a vibrotactile sensory aid to reduce perceptual errors. The study will be conducted before and after long duration expeditions to the International Space Station (ISS) to examine how spatial processing of target location is altered following exposure to microgravity. This study addresses the sensorimotor research gap to "determine the changes in sensorimotor function over the course of a mission and during recovery after landing."

CONNECTION OF TURN AHEAD AND TURN BACK WITH MOTORIC ABILITIES OF THE FOURTH GRADE OF HIGH SCHOOL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jovica Petković

2008-08-01

Full Text Available The research is done for the purpose of determination and defining of the level of connection between some motoric abilities with success in realization of programmed contents from the area of gymnastics (turn ahead and turn back. The research is done on the sample of fifty students from the fourth grade of High School, on ten motoric tests and on two specific motoric assignments – turn ahead and turn back. The results of this research clearly point that there exist the multitude of statistically important coefficients of correlation between treated motoric abilities and applied motoric assignments.

Methodology for tomographic imaging ahead of mining using the shearer as a seismic source

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

King, A.; Luo, X. [CSIRO Exploration and Mining, Kenmore, Qld. (Australia)

2009-03-15

Poor rock conditions in a coal long wall panel can result in roof collapse when a problematic zone is mined, significantly interrupting mine production. The ability to image rock conditions (stress and degree of fracturing) ahead of the face gives the miners the ability to respond proactively to such problems. This method uses the energy from mining machinery, in this case a coal shearer, to produce an image of the rock velocity ahead of the mining face without interrupting mining. Data from an experiment illustrates the concept. Geophones installed in gate-road roofs record the noise generated by the shearer after it has traversed the panel ahead of the mining face. A generalized crosscorrelation of the signals from pairs of sensors determines relative arrival times from the continuous seismic noise produced by the shearer. These relative times can then be inverted for a velocity structure. The crosscorrelations, performed in the frequency domain, are weighted by a confidence value derived from the spectral coherence between the traces. This produces stable crosscorrelation lags in the presence of noise. The errors in the time-domain data are propagated through to the relative traveltimes and then to the final tomographic velocity image, yielding an estimate of the uncertainty in velocity at each point. This velocity image can then be used to infer information about the stress and fracture state of the rock, providing advance warning of potentially hazardous zones.

North American NGL exciting times are just ahead

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gist, R.L.; Otto, K.W.

1998-01-01

Although it is a fairly conservative consulting company, Purvin and Gertz believes that exciting times are just ahead for the North American NGL industry. In the United States, NGL production will be rising rapidly, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico offshore from Louisiana. Demand will also be increasing in many sectors, with the largest increases as petrochemical feedstocks. Similarly, in Canada natural gas export pipelines will result in higher gas and NGL production. Petrochemicals will also play a large role in rapidly rising demand for NGL. Lastly, in Mexico quickly growing demand for natural gas to produce electrical power will push up NGL production

Weight loss strategies associated with BMI in overweight adults with type 2 diabetes at entry into the Look AHEAD (Action for Health in Diabetes) trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Raynor, Hollie A; Jeffery, Robert W; Ruggiero, Andrea M; Clark, Jeanne M; Delahanty, Linda M

2008-07-01

Intentional weight loss is recommended for those with type 2 diabetes, but the strategies patients attempt and their effectiveness for weight management are unknown. In this investigation we describe intentional weight loss strategies used and those related to BMI in a diverse sample of overweight participants with type 2 diabetes at enrollment in the Look AHEAD (Action for Health in Diabetes) clinical trial. This was a cross-sectional study of baseline weight loss strategies, including self-weighing frequency, eating patterns, and weight control practices, reported in 3,063 women and 2,082 men aged 45-74 years with BMI > or =25 kg/m(2). Less than half (41.4%) of participants self-weighed > or =1/week. Participants ate breakfast 6.0 +/- 1.8 days/week, ate 5.0 +/- 3.1 meals/snacks per day, and ate 1.9 +/- 2.7 fast food meals/week. The three most common weight control practices (increasing fruits and vegetables, cutting out sweets, and eating less high-carbohydrate foods) were reported by approximately 60% of participants for > or =20 weeks over the previous year. Adjusted models showed that self-weighing less than once per week (B = 0.83), more fast food meals consumed per week (B = 0.14), and fewer breakfast meals consumed per week (B = -0.19) were associated (P < 0.05) with a higher BMI (R(2) = 0.24). Regular self-weighing and breakfast consumption, along with infrequent consumption of fast food, were related to lower BMI in the Look AHEAD study population.

Short-term spatio-temporal wind power forecast in robust look-ahead power system dispatch

KAUST Repository

Xie, Le; Gu, Yingzhong; Zhu, Xinxin; Genton, Marc G.

2014-01-01

forecasts, the overall cost benefits on system dispatch can be quantified. We integrate the improved forecast with an advanced robust look-ahead dispatch framework. This integrated forecast and economic dispatch framework is tested in a modified IEEE RTS 24

A Shear-Wave Seismic System to Look Ahead of a Tunnel Boring Machine

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bharadwaj, Pawan; Drijkoningen, G.G.; Mulder, W.A.; Tscharner, Thomas; Jenneskens, Rob

2016-01-01

The Earth’s properties, composition and structure ahead of a tunnel boring machine (TBM) should be mapped for hazard assessment during excavation. We study the use of seismic-exploration techniques for this purpose. We focus on a seismic system for soft soils, where shear waves are better and easier

Alaska Satellite Facility: The Quest to Stay Ahead of the Big Data Wave

Science.gov (United States)

Labelle-Hamer, A. L.; Nicoll, J.; Munk, S.

2014-12-01

Big Data is getting bigger. Fast enough is getting faster. The number and type of products produced is growing. The ideas on how to handle the day-to-day management of data and data systems need to scale with the data and the demand. We have seen the effects of rapid growth spurts at the Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF) and anticipate we are not done yet. Looking back, ASF was conceived in 1982 to be a single-purpose imaging radar receiving station supporting a science team focused on geophysical processes. The primary construction at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) was completed in 1988 and full operational status achieved in 1991. The expected supports were estimated at 10 minutes per day and quickly grew to 70 minutes per day. In 1994, a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) between NASA and UAF formed the ASF Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) complementing, the existing agreement for ASF. The demand for the use of ASF as a receiving station and as a data center grew as fast as, and at times faster, than the capabilities. Looking forward, as demand drives the system larger just adding on more of the same often complicates rather than simplifies the system. A growing percentage of efforts and resources spent on dealing with problems that originate from a legacy system can creep up on an organization. This in turn limits the ability to keep the overall sustaining costs under control and leads to a crisis. Such growth means more-of-the-same philosophy has to shift into change-or-die philosophy in order to boot strap up to the next level. In this talk, we review how ASF has faced this several times in the past as the volume and demand of data grew along with the technology to acquire and disseminate it. We will look at what is coming for ASF as a data center and what we think are the next steps to stay ahead of the Big Data wave.

The Neuropsychology of Traumatic Brain Injury: Looking Back, Peering Ahead.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeates, Keith Owen; Levin, Harvey S; Ponsford, Jennie

2017-10-01

The past 50 years have been a period of exciting progress in neuropsychological research on traumatic brain injury (TBI). Neuropsychologists and neuropsychological testing have played a critical role in these advances. This study looks back at three major scientific advances in research on TBI that have been critical in pushing the field forward over the past several decades: The advent of modern neuroimaging; the recognition of the importance of non-injury factors in determining recovery from TBI; and the growth of cognitive rehabilitation. Thanks to these advances, we now have a better understanding of the pathophysiology of TBI and how recovery from the injury is also shaped by pre-injury, comorbid, and contextual factors, and we also have increasing evidence that active interventions, including cognitive rehabilitation, can help to promote better outcomes. The study also peers ahead to discern two important directions that seem destined to influence research on TBI over the next 50 years: the development of large, multi-site observational studies and randomized controlled trials, bolstered by international research consortia and the adoption of common data elements; and attempts to translate research into health care and health policy by the application of rigorous methods drawn from implementation science. Future research shaped by these trends should provide critical evidence regarding the outcomes of TBI and its treatment, and should help to disseminate and implement the knowledge gained from research to the betterment of the quality of life of persons with TBI. (JINS, 2017, 23, 806-817).

One step ahead of technology Cern and HP - an ideal team project

CERN Multimedia

Garvey, Kelsey

2009-01-01

"In 2004, the It team at Cern recognized the comprehensiveness and future of the LHC Computing Grid Project and realized that the IT infrastructures were not sufficient enough to manage the data. Cern therefore partnered with HP ProCurve the following year to minimize the day-to-day workload and improve infrastructure for data output" (1 page)

Present and future responses of growing degree days for Crete Island in Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

2017-02-01

Climate affects practically all the physiological processes that determine plant life (IPCC, 2014). A major challenge and objective of the agricultural science is to predict the occurrences of specific physical or biological events. For this reason, flower phenology has been widely used to study the flowering in plant species of economic interest, and in this concept, temperature and heat units have been widely accepted as the most important factors affecting processes leading to flowering. The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). Determination of GDD is useful for achieving a better understanding of the flowering season development in several plant species, and for forecasting when flowering will occur (Paparrizos and Matzarakis, 2017). Temperature and GDD represent two important spatially-dynamic climatic variables, as they both play vital roles in influencing forest development by directly affecting plant functions such as evapotranspiration, photosynthesis and plant transpiration. Understanding the spatial distribution of GDD is crucial to the practice of sustainable agricultural and forest management, as GDD relates to the integration of growth and provides precise point estimates (Hasan et al., 2007; Matzarakis et al., 2007). The aim of the current study was to estimate and map through downscaling spatial interpolation and multi-linear regression techniques, the future variation of GDD for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, under the A1B and B1 IPCC emission scenarios in relation with the reference periods for Crete Island in Greece. Future temperature data were obtained, validated and analysed from the ENSEMBLES European project. A combination of dynamical and statistical approach was conducted in order to downscale and perform the spatial interpolation of GDD through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that in the future, GDD will be increased and the existing

Short-term spatio-temporal wind power forecast in robust look-ahead power system dispatch

KAUST Repository

Xie, Le

2014-01-01

We propose a novel statistical wind power forecast framework, which leverages the spatio-temporal correlation in wind speed and direction data among geographically dispersed wind farms. Critical assessment of the performance of spatio-temporal wind power forecast is performed using realistic wind farm data from West Texas. It is shown that spatio-temporal wind forecast models are numerically efficient approaches to improving forecast quality. By reducing uncertainties in near-term wind power forecasts, the overall cost benefits on system dispatch can be quantified. We integrate the improved forecast with an advanced robust look-ahead dispatch framework. This integrated forecast and economic dispatch framework is tested in a modified IEEE RTS 24-bus system. Numerical simulation suggests that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6% using a robust look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with persistent wind forecast models. © 2013 IEEE.

Homogeneous nucleation ahead of the solid-liquid interface during rapid solidification of binary alloys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, P.M.; Elmer, J.W.

1996-01-01

In recent rapid solidification experiments on Al-5%Be alloys, a Liquid Phase Nucleation (LPN) model was developed to explain the formation of periodic arrays of randomly-oriented Be-rich particles in an Al-rich matrix. In the LPN model, Be droplets were assumed to nucleate in the liquid ahead of the solid-liquid interface, but no justification for this was given. Here the authors present a model which considers the geometric constraints (imposed by proximity to the interface) on the number of solute atoms available to form a nucleus. Calculations based on this model predict that nucleation of second-phase particles can be most likely a short distance ahead of the interface in immiscible binary systems such as Al-Be. As part of the nucleation calculations, a semi-empirical method of calculating solid-liquid surface tensions in binary systems was developed, and is presented in the Appendix

Attention is allocated closely ahead of the target during smooth pursuit eye movements: Evidence from EEG frequency tagging.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jing; Valsecchi, Matteo; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

2017-07-28

It is under debate whether attention during smooth pursuit is centered right on the pursuit target or allocated preferentially ahead of it. Attentional deployment was previously probed using a secondary task, which might have altered attention allocation and led to inconsistent findings. We measured frequency-tagged steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEP) to measure attention allocation in the absence of any secondary probing task. The observers pursued a moving dot while stimuli flickering at different frequencies were presented at various locations ahead or behind the pursuit target. We observed a significant increase in EEG power at the flicker frequency of the stimulus in front of the pursuit target, compared to the frequency of the stimulus behind. When testing many different locations, we found that the enhancement was detectable up to about 1.5° ahead during pursuit, but vanished by 3.5°. In a control condition using attentional cueing during fixation, we did observe an enhanced EEG response to stimuli at this eccentricity, indicating that the focus of attention during pursuit is narrower than allowed for by the resolution of the attentional system. In a third experiment, we ruled out the possibility that the SSVEP enhancement was a byproduct of the catch-up saccades occurring during pursuit. Overall, we showed that attention is on average allocated ahead of the pursuit target during smooth pursuit. EEG frequency tagging seems to be a powerful technique that allows for the investigation of attention/perception implicitly when an overt task would be confounding. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Open Source Software The Challenge Ahead

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2007-01-01

The open source community has done amazingly well in terms of challenging the historical epicenter of computing - the supercomputer and data center - and driving change there. Linux now represents a healthy and growing share of infrastructure in large organisations globally. Apache and other infrastructural components have established the new de facto standard for software in the back office: freedom. It would be easy to declare victory. But the real challenge lies ahead - taking free software to the mass market, to your grandparents, to your nieces and nephews, to your friends. This is the next wave, and if we are to be successful we need to articulate the audacious goals clearly and loudly - because that's how the community process works best. Speaker Bio: Mark Shuttleworth founded the Ubuntu Project in early 2004. Ubuntu is an enterprise Linux distribution that is freely available worldwide and has both desktop and enterprise server editions. Mark studied finance and information technology at the Universit...

UK's promising future with change of nuclear fortune

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shepherd, John [nuclear 24, London (United Kingdom)

2014-02-15

In January 2014, Toshiba became the latest overseas company to set its sights on building new nuclear reactor units in the UK - announcing that it had secured agreements to see it take a majority 60 percent stake in NuGeneration Limited (NuGen). That makes a total of 11 new units planned or proposed in the UK to date. Whatever the future holds for nuclear in the UK, there is a long road ahead. Main aspects and developments during the past eight years are summarised and explained by the author. (orig.)

Key action items for the stem cell field: looking ahead to 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Knoepfler, Paul S

2013-12-01

The stem cell field is at a critical juncture in late 2013. We find ourselves buoyed by building momentum for both transformative basic science discoveries and clinical translation of stem cells. Cellular reprogramming has given the field exciting new avenues as well. The overall prospect of novel stem cell-based therapies becoming a reality for patients in the coming years has never seemed higher. At the same time, we face serious challenges. Some of these challenges, such as stem cell tourism, are familiar to us, although even those are evolving in ways that require adaptability and action by the stem cell field. Other new challenges are also emerging, including an urgent need for formal physician training in stem cells, regulatory compliance balanced with innovation and U.S. Food and Drug Administration reform, and savvy educational outreach. Looking ahead to 2014, both the challenges and opportunities for the stem cell field require a proactive, thoughtful approach to maximize the potential for a positive impact from stem cell advances. In this study, I discuss the key action items for the field as we look ahead to the coming year and beyond.

Gene expression profiling in MDS and AML: potential and future avenues

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Theilgaard-Mönch, K; Boultwood, J; Ferrari, S

2011-01-01

Today, the classification systems for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) already incorporate cytogenetic and molecular genetic aberrations in an attempt to better reflect disease biology. However, in many MDS/AML patients no genetic aberrations have been identified yet...... with regard to diagnosis, prediction of clinical outcome, discovery of novel subclasses and identification of novel therapeutic targets and novel drugs. As many challenges remain ahead, we discuss the pitfalls of this technology and its potential including future integrative studies with other genomics...

Think Warm Thoughts: Plan Ahead for Summertime Information Literacy Programs! The College Connection

Science.gov (United States)

Kasowitz-Scheer, Abby

2009-01-01

It's winter! While it is frosty outside, one can at least think warm thoughts by starting now to plan ahead for summer information literacy programs. This article is designed to provide some ideas for planning next summer's reading, sleuthing, and research programs. It features a variety of programs organized by academic librarians this past…

Baseline Predictors of Missed Visits in the Look AHEAD Study

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzpatrick, Stephanie L.; Jeffery, Robert; Johnson, Karen C.; Roche, Cathy C.; Van Dorsten, Brent; Gee, Molly; Johnson, Ruby Ann; Charleston, Jeanne; Dotson, Kathy; Walkup, Michael P.; Hill-Briggs, Felicia; Brancati, Frederick L.

2013-01-01

Objective To identify baseline attributes associated with consecutively missed data collection visits during the first 48 months of Look AHEAD—a randomized, controlled trial in 5145 overweight/obese adults with type 2 diabetes designed to determine the long-term health benefits of weight loss achieved by lifestyle change. Design and Methods The analyzed sample consisted of 5016 participants who were alive at month 48 and enrolled at Look AHEAD sites. Demographic, baseline behavior, psychosocial factors, and treatment randomization were included as predictors of missed consecutive visits in proportional hazard models. Results In multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, baseline attributes of participants who missed consecutive visits (n=222) included: younger age ( Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.18 per 5 years younger; 95% Confidence Interval 1.05, 1.30), higher depression score (HR 1.04; 1.01, 1.06), non-married status (HR 1.37; 1.04, 1.82), never self-weighing prior to enrollment (HR 2.01; 1.25, 3.23), and randomization to minimal vs. intensive lifestyle intervention (HR 1.46; 1.11, 1.91). Conclusions Younger age, symptoms of depression, non-married status, never self-weighing, and randomization to minimal intervention were associated with a higher likelihood of missing consecutive data collection visits, even in a high-retention trial like Look AHEAD. Whether modifications to screening or retention efforts targeted to these attributes might enhance long-term retention in behavioral trials requires further investigation. PMID:23996977

Looking Ahead: The Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munn, R.E.

1994-01-01

Proceeding of a workshop on the Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments (CEA's) were presented.. Also included were three working group reports and papers presented at the conference. The issue of the concept of Cumulative Environmental Assessments was summarized, along with the current transformation to a more global outlook. The concepts and methodological questions associated with ecology and economics were tackled. CEA methods were discussed and a contrast was made with land-use planning. The importance of long-term monitoring programs was introduced and examples of early warning systems were given. Social science issues behind CEAs were also discussed. Recommendation e for preparing CEA's, the design of early warning monitoring systems, and public involvement, were made.. Contributed papers covered topics related to environmental assessment, pollution, and climate change

Statistical Downscaling of Rainfall for Romania From six European GCMs for Present Day and Future Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Huebener, H.; Cubasch, U.

2007-12-01

scenario when compared to the respective present-day simulation. For the other CWTs the signals are either not significant or differ between the participating models. With respect to future rainfall in the lower Danube basin a drying tendency is expected due to the shift from cyclonic to anti-cyclonic CWT occurrences.

Tomographic imaging of rock conditions ahead of mining using the shearer as a seismic source - A feasibility study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luo, X.; King, A.; Van de Werken, M. [CSIRO, Brisbane, Qld. (Australia)

2009-11-15

Roof falls due to poor rock conditions in a coal longwall panel may threaten miner's life and cause significant interruption to mine production. There has been a requirement for technologies that are capable of imaging the rock conditions in longwall coal mining, ahead of the working face and without any interruption to production. A feasibility study was carried out to investigate the characteristics of seismic signals generated by the continuous coal cutter (shearer) and recorded by geophone arrays deployed ahead of the working face, for the purpose of seismic tomographic imaging of roof strata condition before mining. Two experiments were conducted at a coal mine using two arrays of geophones. The experiments have demonstrated that the longwall shearer generates strong and low-frequency (similar to 40 Hz) seismic energy that can be adequately detected by geophones deployed in shallow boreholes along the roadways as far as 300 m from the face. Using noise filtering and signal cross correlation techniques, the seismic arrival times associated with the shearer cutting can be reliably determined. It has proved the concept that velocity variations ahead of the face can be mapped out using tomographic techniques while mining is in progress.

Fast N-Gram Language Model Look-Ahead for Decoders With Static Pronunciation Prefix Trees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbregts, M.A.H.; Ordelman, Roeland J.F.; de Jong, Franciska M.G.

2008-01-01

Decoders that make use of token-passing restrict their search space by various types of token pruning. With use of the Language Model Look-Ahead (LMLA) technique it is possible to increase the number of tokens that can be pruned without loss of decoding precision. Unfortunately, for token passing

Looking ahead of a tunnel boring machine with 2-D SH full waveform inversion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pisupati, P.B.; Mulder, W.A.; Drijkoningen, G.G.; Reijnen, R.

2015-01-01

In the near-surface with unconsolidated soils, shear properties can be well imaged, sometimes better than P-wave properties. To facilitate ground prediction ahead of a tunnel boring machine (TBM), active ‘surveys’ with shear-wave vibrators are carried out during boring. In such surveys, only a few

Nuclear analytical methods: Past, present and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, D.A.

1996-01-01

The development of nuclear analytical methods as an analytical tool began in 1936 with the publication of the first paper on neutron activation analysis (NAA). This year, 1996, marks the 60th anniversary of that event. This paper attempts to look back at the nuclear analytical methods of the past, to look around and to see where the technology is right now, and finally, to look ahead to try and see where nuclear methods as an analytical technique (or as a group of analytical techniques) will be going in the future. The general areas which the author focuses on are: neutron activation analysis; prompt gamma neutron activation analysis (PGNAA); photon activation analysis (PAA); charged-particle activation analysis (CPAA)

Solar Eclipse Computer API: Planning Ahead for August 2017

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlett, Jennifer L.; Chizek Frouard, Malynda; Lesniak, Michael V.; Bell, Steve

2016-01-01

With the total solar eclipse of 2017 August 21 over the continental United States approaching, the U.S. Naval Observatory (USNO) on-line Solar Eclipse Computer can now be accessed via an application programming interface (API). This flexible interface returns local circumstances for any solar eclipse in JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) that can be incorporated into third-party Web sites or applications. For a given year, it can also return a list of solar eclipses that can be used to build a more specific request for local circumstances. Over the course of a particular eclipse as viewed from a specific site, several events may be visible: the beginning and ending of the eclipse (first and fourth contacts), the beginning and ending of totality (second and third contacts), the moment of maximum eclipse, sunrise, or sunset. For each of these events, the USNO Solar Eclipse Computer reports the time, Sun's altitude and azimuth, and the event's position and vertex angles. The computer also reports the duration of the total phase, the duration of the eclipse, the magnitude of the eclipse, and the percent of the Sun obscured for a particular eclipse site. On-line documentation for using the API-enabled Solar Eclipse Computer, including sample calls, is available (http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/api.php). The same Web page also describes how to reach the Complete Sun and Moon Data for One Day, Phases of the Moon, Day and Night Across the Earth, and Apparent Disk of a Solar System Object services using API calls.For those who prefer using a traditional data input form, local circumstances can still be requested that way at http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/SolarEclipses.php. In addition, the 2017 August 21 Solar Eclipse Resource page (http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/Eclipse2017.php) consolidates all of the USNO resources for this event, including a Google Map view of the eclipse track designed by Her Majesty's Nautical Almanac Office (HMNAO). Looking further ahead, a

Future Peace Operations - The Way Ahead

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Sunde, Herald

1999-01-01

.... In addition, training for the wide variety of tasks now involved in peace operations conflicts with the training necessary for national military forces to maintain their warfighting capabilities, their primary mission...

Biologicals versus biosimilars the future ahead

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A Singhal

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Biosimilars are highly similar versions of already authorized innovator biological therapies. They demonstrate no clinically meaningful difference with their innovator products in terms of efficacy, safety and quality characteristics and biological activity. Biosimilars have demonstrated growing acceptance and use, especially in the developing countries due to severe cost constraints. Global market for Indian non-innovator products is approximately worth USD 1.5 Billion/annum with an annual growth rate of 27%. Estimated exports of Indian biopharmaceutical products have been increasing at a rate of 47%. In India, there is a good acceptance of non-innovator healthcare products amongst healthcare professionals and patients. Several home grown biopharmaceutical industries are now actively developing and marketing non innovator products in India.

Even bigger days are ahead for data superhighway

CERN Multimedia

Kotulak, R

2003-01-01

"Scientists at Fermi and Argonne National Laboratories, along with colleagues around the globe, are building the ultimate supercomputer that they envision almost anyone eventually could use to tackle tough problems now out of their reach" (1 page).

Oil and the future: Taking bearings in the greenhouse in a post Brent Spar world

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leggett, J

1996-12-31

The paper discusses future oil combustion. A greenhouse-related environmental driving-force seems set to emerge in the capital markets in the years ahead. This will severely compound other already serious environment-related financial problems blighting the oil-industry`s access to capital radar screen. The wise oil company is now, increasingly clearly, the company thinking about how to begin repositioning itself for the twenty-first century as a total energy company. 6 refs.

Oil and the future: Taking bearings in the greenhouse in a post Brent Spar world

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leggett, J.

1995-12-31

The paper discusses future oil combustion. A greenhouse-related environmental driving-force seems set to emerge in the capital markets in the years ahead. This will severely compound other already serious environment-related financial problems blighting the oil-industry`s access to capital radar screen. The wise oil company is now, increasingly clearly, the company thinking about how to begin repositioning itself for the twenty-first century as a total energy company. 6 refs.

Fit between Future Thinking and Future Orientation on Creative Imagination

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Fa-Chung

2012-01-01

The purpose of the current study is to investigate the impact of future thinking, and the fit between future thinking and future orientation on creative thinking. In Study 1, 83 undergraduates were randomly assigned to three groups: 50-year future thinking, 5-year future thinking, and the present-day thinking. First, the priming tasks, in which…

Pharmacy or PharmaNBIC: Thinking about 50 years ahead of pharmacy today

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amir Azadi

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The contemporary trends and concepts in pharmacy are widely affected by the emergence of Nano-, Bio- or Info- technologies (NBI as an attempt to develop different principles of medicine. This commentary is trying to make a think tank room for 50 years ahead of today’s pharmacy, where the ambience of pharmacy will be affected by such technologies together with cognition (NBIC to achieve intelligent, low adverse reaction and holistic action medicals.

High Predictive Skill of Global Surface Temperature a Year Ahead

Science.gov (United States)

Folland, C. K.; Colman, A.; Kennedy, J. J.; Knight, J.; Parker, D. E.; Stott, P.; Smith, D. M.; Boucher, O.

2011-12-01

We discuss the high skill of real-time forecasts of global surface temperature a year ahead issued by the UK Met Office, and their scientific background. Although this is a forecasting and not a formal attribution study, we show that the main instrumental global annual surface temperature data sets since 1891 are structured consistently with a set of five physical forcing factors except during and just after the second World War. Reconstructions use a multiple application of cross validated linear regression to minimise artificial skill allowing time-varying uncertainties in the contribution of each forcing factor to global temperature to be assessed. Mean cross validated reconstructions for the data sets have total correlations in the range 0.93-0.95,interannual correlations in the range 0.72-0.75 and root mean squared errors near 0.06oC, consistent with observational uncertainties.Three transient runs of the HadCM3 coupled model for 1888-2002 demonstrate quite similar reconstruction skill from similar forcing factors defined appropriately for the model, showing that skilful use of our technique is not confined to observations. The observed reconstructions show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) likely contributed to the re-commencement of global warming between 1976 and 2010 and to global cooling observed immediately beforehand in 1965-1976. The slowing of global warming in the last decade is likely to be largely due to a phase-delayed response to the downturn in the solar cycle since 2001-2, with no net ENSO contribution. The much reduced trend in 2001-10 is similar in size to other weak decadal temperature trends observed since global warming resumed in the 1970s. The causes of variations in decadal trends can be mostly explained by variations in the strength of the forcing factors. Eleven real-time forecasts of global mean surface temperature for the year ahead for 2000-2010, based on broadly similar methods, provide an independent test of the

On the cradle of CCM research: discovery, development, and challenges ahead.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, Aaron

2017-06-01

Herein, 40 years after its discovery, I briefly and critically survey the development of ideas that propelled research on CO2-concentrating mechanisms (CCMs; a term proposed by Dean Price) of phytoplankton, mainly focusing on cyanobacteria. This is not a comprehensive review on CCM research, but a personal view on the past developments and challenges that lie ahead. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

77 FR 75503 - Wright Brothers Day, 2012

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-20

... Wright pursued their lifelong dream. Like so many Americans before and after them, these two men achieved... stay ahead of the curve and keep America moving forward. With their game-changing feat, the Wright...

Three Paradoxes of the Future Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. V. Pivovarov

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the issue of predicting the future. While creating the future image of the mankind as a whole, and Russia in particular, extrapolated some 50 or 100 years ahead, such cultural forms as religion, philosophy, education and art make their significant impact. However, philosophy plays a special role of critical methodology in coordinating the futurological efforts. It works as a tuning fork that tunes up the orchestra of various sciences and other forms of social consciousness. Being dialectical, philosophers find out and analyze the contradictions – paradoxes, antinomies, and aporias - involved in such activities as prophesizing, prognosticating, predicting and foreseeing. On the basis of the retrospective analysis, the author considers the most significant paradoxes facing the futurologists engaged in predicting the general course of historic events; the paradoxes being denoted as follows: the antinomy of academic ignorance, paradox of newness and paradox of an emergent effect. The analysis results in conclusion that the large-scale, long-term «scientific predictions of the future», claiming to be the truth and pretending for historical value and accuracy, are impossible or at least doubtful. Nevertheless, global prognoses are highly valued, widely discussed and always in demand in society due to the purposeful human intellect. 

Three Paradoxes of the Future Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. V. Pivovarov

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the issue of predicting the future. While creating the future image of the mankind as a whole, and Russia in particular, extrapolated some 50 or 100 years ahead, such cultural forms as religion, philosophy, education and art make their significant impact. However, philosophy plays a special role of critical methodology in coordinating the futurological efforts. It works as a tuning fork that tunes up the orchestra of various sciences and other forms of social consciousness. Being dialectical, philosophers find out and analyze the contradictions – paradoxes, antinomies, and aporias - involved in such activities as prophesizing, prognosticating, predicting and foreseeing. On the basis of the retrospective analysis, the author considers the most significant paradoxes facing the futurologists engaged in predicting the general course of historic events; the paradoxes being denoted as follows: the antinomy of academic ignorance, paradox of newness and paradox of an emergent effect. The analysis results in conclusion that the large-scale, long-term «scientific predictions of the future», claiming to be the truth and pretending for historical value and accuracy, are impossible or at least doubtful. Nevertheless, global prognoses are highly valued, widely discussed and always in demand in society due to the purposeful human intellect. 

NCR-days 2004; research for managing rivers: present and future issues

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Makaske, B.; Os, van A.G.

2005-01-01

These proceedings are the product of the NCR days 2004, held 46 November 2004 in Wageningen.The NCR days are a yearly conference at which mainly young scientists present their ongoing research on a wide variety of fluvial subjects. The 46 contributions (oral presentations and posters) to the

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... a Beat National Women and Girls HIV/AIDS Awareness Day National Women's Health Week Supporting Nursing Moms ... a Beat National Women and Girls HIV/AIDS Awareness Day National Women's Health Week Supporting Nursing Moms ...

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... t Miss a Beat National Women and Girls HIV/AIDS Awareness Day National Women's Health Week Supporting Nursing ... t Miss a Beat National Women and Girls HIV/AIDS Awareness Day National Women's Health Week Supporting Nursing ...

Rotavirus Vaccines: a story of success with challenges ahead

Science.gov (United States)

O’Ryan, Miguel

2017-01-01

Approximately 40 years have passed since the discovery of the rotavirus and 10 years since the introduction and progressive dissemination of rotavirus vaccines worldwide. Currently, 92 countries have introduced rotavirus vaccines into national or subnational programs with evident impact in disease reduction. Two vaccines have been widely used, and four additional vaccines have been licensed and are being used in defined regions. In this context, one main issue that remains unsolved is the lower vaccine efficacy/effectiveness in low-income countries. An additional partially answered issue relates to rotavirus strain circulation in vaccinated populations. These issues are discussed in this review. The most imperative challenge ahead is to fulfill the WHO’s recommendation to introduce rotavirus vaccines in all countries. PMID:28928954

Resistance to sap-sucking insects in modern-day agriculture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin eDe Vos

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Plants and herbivores have co-evolved in their natural habitats for about 350 million years, but since the domestication of crops, plant resistance against insects has taken a different turn. With the onset of monoculture-driven modern agriculture, selective pressure on insects to overcome resistances has dramatically increased. Therefore plant breeders have resorted to high-tech tools to continuously create new insect-resistant crops. Efforts in the past 30 years have resulted in elucidation of mechanisms of many effective plant defenses against insect herbivores. Here, we critically appraise these efforts and - with a focus on sap-sucking insects - discuss how these findings have contributed to herbivore-resistant crops. Moreover, in this review we try to assess where future challenges and opportunities lay ahead. Of particular importance will be a mandatory reduction in systemic pesticide usage and thus a greater reliance on alternative methods, such as improved plant genetics for plant resistance to insect herbivores.

Field Experience with and Potential for Multi-time Scale Grid Transactions from Responsive Commercial Buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piette, Mary Ann; Kiliccote, Sila; Ghatikar, Girish

2014-08-01

The need for and concepts behind demand response are evolving. As the electric system changes with more intermittent renewable electric supply systems, there is a need to allow buildings to provide more flexible demand. This paper presents results from field studies and pilots, as well as engineering estimates of the potential capabilities of fast load responsiveness in commercial buildings. We present a sector wide analysis of flexible loads in commercial buildings, which was conducted to improve resource planning and determine which loads to evaluate in future demonstrations. These systems provide important capabilities for future transactional systems. The field analysis is based on results from California, plus projects in the northwest and east coast. End-uses considered include heating, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting. The timescales of control include day-ahead, as well as day-of, 10-minute ahead and even faster response. This technology can provide DR signals on different times scales to interact with responsive building loads. We describe the latency of the control systems in the building and the round trip communications with the wholesale grid operators.

The future of the brain essays by the world's leading neuroscientists

CERN Document Server

Freeman, Jeremy

2015-01-01

An unprecedented look at the quest to unravel the mysteries of the human brain, The Future of the Brain takes readers to the absolute frontiers of science. Original essays by leading researchers such as Christof Koch, George Church, Olaf Sporns, and May-Britt and Edvard Moser describe the spectacular technological advances that will enable us to map the more than eighty-five billion neurons in the brain, as well as the challenges that lie ahead in understanding the anticipated deluge of data and the prospects for building working simulations of the human brain. A must-read for anyone trying to understand ambitious new research programs such as the Obama administration's BRAIN Initiative and the European Union’s Human Brain Project, The Future of the Brain sheds light on the breathtaking implications of brain science for medicine, psychiatry, and even human consciousness itself.

The New and the Future Look of the Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liliana CRĂCIUN

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The global financial situation and our future economy remain vital concerns for us all. As a result, the government and the business community have to stimulate the economy and give it new dimensions. Virtually everyone agrees on the importance of the economy, but no consensus has or is expected to be reached soon as to the definition of the economy. Economy as a “discipline”' is a concept torn apart by current economic crisis, where fierce competition, greed and consumerism will neither solve the crisis in progress nor will they rehabilitate the economy. It is true that the current economic crisis and the times of slower economic growth that will inevitably follow are old system-related symptoms of the excesses and the recklessness accumulated in time at global level, for which reason we see ourselves forced now to reconsider the options that are lay ahead and outline a clear future perspective.

Application of the seismic survey ahead of tunnel face; Danseiha wo mochiita kiriha zenpo tansa no tekiyo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nagai, S; Nakajima, N [JDC Corporation, Tokyo (Japan)

1997-10-22

Measurements have been made in a water channel tunnel having a small diameter and shallow earth covering, by using a tunnel seismic prediction (TSP) system to predict the nature of soil up to about 150 meters ahead of a face, which uses reflection method elastic waves. The water channel tunnel has a diameter of 2.8 m, and extends over a total distance of 706 m. The nature of soil at the face is composed of rocks, in which dark gray and hard striped phthanites are distributed and joint interval is about 20 cm. The measurements were performed on 24 vibration holes with hole interval of about 1.5 m using an explosive of 50 grams per hole. Diffraction stack processing method was used to execute the analysis. As a result of the discussions, a point changing from hard to soft soil was predicted at a point 18 m ahead of the face, and a point changing from soft to hard soil at a point 70 m ahead of the face. The changing point for the soil nature as observed by drilling showed a discrepancy of 10 m at the point changing from hard to soft soil as compared with the prediction derived by using the TSP exploration. No discrepancy was recognized in the point changing from soft to hard soil. The discrepancy is thought to have been caused from the geological change in the explored area being moderate and the lithofacies being free from change. 8 figs., 2 tabs.

Impact of multi-resolution analysis of artificial intelligence models inputs on multi-step ahead river flow forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

2013-12-01

Discrete wavelet transform was applied to decomposed ANN and ANFIS inputs.Novel approach of WNF with subtractive clustering applied for flow forecasting.Forecasting was performed in 1-5 step ahead, using multi-variate inputs.Forecasting accuracy of peak values and longer lead-time significantly improved.

Getting Ahead Three Steps to Take Your Career to the Next Level

CERN Document Server

Garfinkle, Joel A

2011-01-01

A leading executive coach pinpoints three vital traits necessary to advance your career In Getting Ahead, one of the top 50 executive coaches in the United States, Joel Garfinkle reveals his signature model for mastering three skills to take your career to the next level: Perception, Visibility, and Influence. The PVI-model of professional advancement will teach you to: (1) Actively promote yourself as an asset and valuable person inside the organization, (2) Increase your visibility to gain others' recognition and appreciation for your efforts and (3) Become a person of influence who makes ke

Start 2: Thinking one move ahead

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gaines, L.L.

1991-11-01

At their summit meeting in the spring of 1990, Presidents Bush and Gorbachev issued a joint statement expressing their intentions to continue the process of strategic arms control beyond the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which was eventually signed in July 1991, toward agreement on further reductions. They set general goals for negotiation of a follow-on treaty to START, which has been called START II. President Bush`s historic speech on September 27, 1991, reinforced those goals and specified several actions the US would take. It is the purpose of this report to examine possible provisions of START II and the implications of those provisions for achievement of the goals set at the 1990 summit, for verifiability, and for US force planning. This look ahead will contribute to advance planning of appropriate negotiating positions, verification research and development (R&D), and force modernization and restructuring. This report describes the goals for a START II treaty and possible means for achieving them. It postulates one set of provisions for such a treaty, while it examines force structures for the US that could result from adoption of a treaty with these provisions. The adequacy of methods for verifying START II are examined and the implications of a START II treaty are postulated.

Start 2: Thinking one move ahead

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gaines, L.L.

1991-11-01

At their summit meeting in the spring of 1990, Presidents Bush and Gorbachev issued a joint statement expressing their intentions to continue the process of strategic arms control beyond the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which was eventually signed in July 1991, toward agreement on further reductions. They set general goals for negotiation of a follow-on treaty to START, which has been called START II. President Bush's historic speech on September 27, 1991, reinforced those goals and specified several actions the US would take. It is the purpose of this report to examine possible provisions of START II and the implications of those provisions for achievement of the goals set at the 1990 summit, for verifiability, and for US force planning. This look ahead will contribute to advance planning of appropriate negotiating positions, verification research and development (R D), and force modernization and restructuring. This report describes the goals for a START II treaty and possible means for achieving them. It postulates one set of provisions for such a treaty, while it examines force structures for the US that could result from adoption of a treaty with these provisions. The adequacy of methods for verifying START II are examined and the implications of a START II treaty are postulated.

Cost of intervention delivery in a lifestyle weight loss trial in type 2 diabetes: results from the Look AHEAD clinical trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Rushing, J; Wing, R; Wadden, T A; Knowler, W C; Lawlor, M; Evans, M; Killean, T; Montez, M; Espeland, M A; Zhang, P

2017-03-01

The Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD) trial was a randomized controlled clinical trial to compare the effects of 10 years of intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) with a control condition of diabetes support and education (DSE) on health outcomes in over 5,000 participants with type 2 diabetes. The ILI had significantly greater weight losses than DSE throughout the trial. The goal of this analysis is to describe the cost of delivering the intervention. The ILI was designed to promote weight loss and increase physical activity. It involved a combination of group plus individual intervention sessions, with decreasing frequency of contact over the 10 years. The intervention incorporated a variety of strategies, including meal replacement products, to improve weight loss outcomes. The costs of intervention delivery were derived from staff surveys of effort and from records of intervention materials from the 16 US academic clinical trial sites. Costs were calculated from the payer perspective and presented in 2012 dollars. During the first year, when intervention delivery was most intensive, the annual cost of intervention delivery, averaged (standard deviation) across clinical sites, was $2,864.6 ($513.3) per ILI participant compared with $202.4 ($76.6) per DSE participant. As intervention intensity declined, costs decreased, such that from years 5 to 9 of the trial, the annual cost of intervention was $1,119.8 ($227.7) per ILI participant and $102.9 ($33.0) per DSE participant. Staffing accounted for the majority of costs throughout the trial, with meal replacements and materials to promote adherence accounting for smaller shares. The sustained weight losses produced by the Look AHEAD intervention were supported by intervention costs that were within the range of other weight loss programmes. Future work will include an evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of the ILI and will contain additional follow-up data.

Differential responses of calcifying and non-calcifying epibionts of a brown macroalga to present-day and future upwelling pCO2.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vincent Saderne

Full Text Available Seaweeds are key species of the Baltic Sea benthic ecosystems. They are the substratum of numerous fouling epibionts like bryozoans and tubeworms. Several of these epibionts bear calcified structures and could be impacted by the high pCO2 events of the late summer upwellings in the Baltic nearshores. Those events are expected to increase in strength and duration with global change and ocean acidification. If calcifying epibionts are impacted by transient acidification as driven by upwelling events, their increasing prevalence could cause a shift of the fouling communities toward fleshy species. The aim of the present study was to test the sensitivity of selected seaweed macrofoulers to transient elevation of pCO2 in their natural microenvironment, i.e. the boundary layer covering the thallus surface of brown seaweeds. Fragments of the macroalga Fucus serratus bearing an epibiotic community composed of the calcifiers Spirorbis spirorbis (Annelida and Electra pilosa (Bryozoa and the non-calcifier Alcyonidium hirsutum (Bryozoa were maintained for 30 days under three pCO2 conditions: natural 460 ± 59 µatm, present-day upwelling1193 ± 166 µatm and future upwelling 3150 ± 446 µatm. Only the highest pCO2 caused a significant reduction of growth rates and settlement of S. spirorbis individuals. Additionally, S. spirorbis settled juveniles exhibited enhanced calcification of 40% during daylight hours compared to dark hours, possibly reflecting a day-night alternation of an acidification-modulating effect by algal photosynthesis as opposed to an acidification-enhancing effect of algal respiration. E. pilosa colonies showed significantly increased growth rates at intermediate pCO2 (1193 µatm but no response to higher pCO2. No effect of acidification on A. hirsutum colonies growth rates was observed. The results suggest a remarkable resistance of the algal macro-epibionts to levels of acidification occurring at present day upwellings in the Baltic

Fuel cells and hydrogen : implications for the future automobile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frise, P.R.

2006-01-01

The generation, storage, transportation, distribution and dispensing of hydrogen has clearly emerged as the central issue in the global move toward a carbon-free fuel future for the mobility industry. The technical, economic and societal issues surrounding the provision of fuels for fuel cells appear to be at least as daunting, if not more, than any other issue. Nonetheless, automakers from all over the world are pressing ahead with their extensive research and development programs and these have showed great promise in addressing the key on-vehicle issues such as durability, cold starting and packaging. More work remains on several key problems and the presentation will elucidate these and endeavor to point the way to solutions as seen from an automotive engineering viewpoint. (author)

Cultural norm fulfillment, interpersonal belonging, or getting ahead? A large-scale cross-cultural test of three perspectives on the function of self-esteem.

Science.gov (United States)

Gebauer, Jochen E; Sedikides, Constantine; Wagner, Jenny; Bleidorn, Wiebke; Rentfrow, Peter J; Potter, Jeff; Gosling, Samuel D

2015-09-01

What is the function of self-esteem? We classified relevant theoretical work into 3 perspectives. The cultural norm-fulfillment perspective regards self-esteem a result of adherence to cultural norms. The interpersonal-belonging perspective regards self-esteem as a sociometer of interpersonal belonging. The getting-ahead perspective regards self-esteem as a sociometer of getting ahead in the social world, while regarding low anxiety/neuroticism as a sociometer of getting along with others. The 3 perspectives make contrasting predictions on the relation between the Big Five personality traits and self-esteem across cultures. We tested these predictions in a self-report study (2,718,838 participants from 106 countries) and an informant-report study (837,655 informants from 64 countries). We obtained some evidence for cultural norm fulfillment, but the effect size was small. Hence, this perspective does not satisfactorily account for self-esteem's function. We found a strong relation between Extraversion and higher self-esteem, but no such relation between Agreeableness and self-esteem. These 2 traits are pillars of interpersonal belonging. Hence, the results do not fit the interpersonal-belonging perspective either. However, the results closely fit the getting-ahead perspective. The relation between Extraversion and higher self-esteem is consistent with this perspective, because Extraversion is the Big Five driver for getting ahead in the social world. The relation between Agreeableness and lower neuroticism is also consistent with this perspective, because Agreeableness is the Big Five driver for getting along with others. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Site remediation and the future of radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsen, R.L.

1999-01-01

An ongoing project on The Future of Radiation Protection is exploring the most important radiation-related challenges that may emerge between now and 2025. Project participants have already identified the restoration of sites contaminated by radioactive residues as one of the central challenges of the generation ahead. Scenarios developed in the project explore a wide range of plausible radiation protection futures, from highly desirable futures to futures dominated by problems and crises. The most negative scenario involves many developments that produce radioactive residues, from accidents that release radionuclides and scandals over the improper handling and disposal of radioactive wastes to accelerating proliferation of nuclear weapons and incidents of radiological terrorism. A majority of expert participants in focus groups conducted as part of the project view this negative scenario as the most probable future. Other scenarios explore a 'greater use' future (e.g., a second generation of nuclear power) and a future where advancing technology leads away from the use of radioactive materials. These two scenarios elicit strong enthusiasm from different sets of participants, but neither of them is viewed as likely. A final 'Whole System Protection' scenario is viewed favorably by the widest range of participants and is viewed as reasonably likely. This scenario is being developed further in the current stage of the project. It is being developed to highlight common ground between participants in terms of agreement on 'principles for guiding action.' Principles such as total accounting, pollution prevention, risk harmonization, public right to know, stewardship, and sustainability may form a framework for guiding action that can transcend traditional debates and revitalize the field of radiation protection. (author)

Thinking about the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lashof, D.; Schipper, L.

1990-01-01

The future evolution of global change and the atmosphere will depend largely on the paths of economic development and technological change, as well as on the physical, chemical, and biological processes of the Earth-atmosphere system. While we have no control over this system once gases enter the atmosphere, economic and technological change will be influenced by policy choices made at local, national, and international levels. This paper explores some of the paths the world might follow in the decades ahead and provides an indication of the relative climatic consequences under these alternatives. After a discussion of the economic and social factors that determine emissions, four scenarios of economic and technological development are presented. These scenarios cannot capture all the possibilities, of course; rather, they have been developed in order to explore the probable climatic effects under significantly different, but plausible, economic and technological conditions. The climatic implications of these scenarios are analyzed using an integrated framework. The chapter concludes with the results of this analysis and a comparison of these results with other studies

Smart hospitals and m health-future ahead

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dev Prakash Sharma

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Electronic gadgets along with mobile devices & Apps are becoming integral part of the modern healthcare industry. PACS and RIS were just the building blocks in the era of m Health, which now thrives on enterprise viewers and technologies like mobile e- visit technology to name a few. With gradual increase in quality and availability ofthe technology the concept of traditional health center is getting outdated. Today in the technology driven society the patient wants at door health services with mobile key boards as means of communication with his healthcare providers.

"Days of future passed" - climate change and carbon cycle history (Jean Baptiste Lamarck Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Weissert, Helmut

2013-04-01

. Changes in physical and chemical oceanography are reflected in widespread black shale deposition ("Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a"), in carbonate platform drowning and in biocalcification crises. "Days of future passed" (Moody Blues, 1967) reminds us that the past provides essential information needed for decisions to be made in the interest of mankind's future.

The Textbook of the Future: What Will It Look Like?

Science.gov (United States)

Shipman, Harry L.; Finkelstein, N.; McCray, D.; Mac Low, M.; Zollman, D.

2006-12-01

In May 2006, a group of scientists, publishers, technology gurus, National Science Foundation officers, and other interested parties met for a few days to think collectively about the future of the textbook. We met because: -The Web and search engines like Google change the relationship between students and information. If the textbook no longer needs to be encyclopedic, then what is its role? --Knowing information is not enough. Our students, whether they follow academic or other careers, will need to know how to get information, evaluate it, and use it to solve real world problems. How can a textbook help students in these environments? --The static, comprehensive narrative of a textbook does not always lend itself well to inquiry learning, which is strongly encouraged by science education research and by national science k-12 education standards. How can textbooks support active, student-centered learning and support new faculty as they adopt it? The workshop generated partial and uncertain answers to these questions, providing some ideas for the future, though not a complete roadmap. A metaphor that generated considerable support among the group was the idea of a textbook as a compact travel guide, like the Lonely Planet guides. It should be adaptable, and thus web-based, but it might still exist in paper form. The participants discussed barriers on the path ahead. How will peer review, which many workshop participants value, be incorporated? What incentives could motivate textbook authors and publishers to produce truly innovative products? How will new technologies such as computer simulations & animations, electronic readers, and widely accessible databases reshape the role of the textbook in education? Many workshop participants including this paper’s authors acknowledge support from the NSF Distinguished Teaching Scholars Program and the NSF CAREER awards program.

Study on the Future Climate Change and Its Influence on the Growth Stage and Yield of Wheat in Weifang City

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Jing; YUAN; Jianping; XU; Lijuan; SUN; Xiuzhen; ZHANG; Xiaoli; WANG

2015-01-01

In order to study the trend of climate change in the future in Weifang,and analyze the impact of climate change on the local wheat production,the air temperature and precipitation in Weifang from 2021 to 2050 were simulated by using the regional climate model PRECIS.And then put the meteorological data into the crop model to simulate the growth of wheat under climate change conditions in the future.The results showed that there would be a trend of rising temperature and increasing precipitation in Weifang in the future.Climate warming would result in growth period of wheat to be ahead of schedule and yield reduction.If taking into account the effect of CO2,the yield of wheat would increase.

Modeling Smart Energy Systems for Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halvgaard, Rasmus; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Madsen, Henrik

2012-01-01

as it is produced requires a very exible and controllable power consumption. Examples of controllable electric loads are heat pumps in buildings and Electric Vehicles (EVs) that are expected to play a large role in the future danish energy system. These units in a smart energy system can potentially oer exibility...... on a time scale ranging from seconds to several days by moving power consumption, exploiting thermal inertia or battery storage capacity, respectively. Using advanced control algorithms these systems are able to reduce their own electricity costs by planning ahead and moving consumption to periods...... future price should also be available in order for the individual units to plan ahead in the most feasible way. This is necessary since Economic MPCs do not respond to the absolute cost of electricity, but to variations of the price over the prediction horizon. Economic MPC is ideal for price responsive...

Revised feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic in the United Kingdom: A cloudy future ahead?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus; Ramirez-Iniguez, Roberto; Munir, Abu Bakar; Mohd Yasin, Siti Hajar; Abu-Bakar, Siti Hawa; McMeekin, Scott G.; Stewart, Brian G.

2013-01-01

The United Kingdom (UK) started implementing a national Feed-In Tariff (FiT) mechanism on the 1 April 2010, which included specific payment tariffs for solar photovoltaic (PV) installations. However, a revised FiT rate has been put in place starting from 1 April 2012, applicable to any installations with an eligibility date of on or after 3 March 2012. This paper presents, first, an overview of solar PV installation in the UK. This followed by a general concept of the FiT in the UK before analyzing the financial impact of the new FiT rate on the consumers. Similar financial analysis is conducted with selected countries in Europe. The financial analysis investigates the total profit, the average rate of return and the payback period. It is found that the new FiT rate generates very low profit, minimum rate of return and a longer payback period, suggesting a downward trend of solar PV uptake in the future. - Highlight: ► Overview of solar PV installation in the UK until present time is discussed. ► Financial analysis is presented using previous, new and degression FiT tariff. ► Comparative analysis with other European countries is evaluated. ► The new FiT rate in the UK generates very low return than other countries. ► This could suggest a downward trend of UK's solar PV uptake in the future

The Diamond Light Source and the challenges ahead for structural biology: some informal remarks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramakrishnan, V

2015-03-06

The remarkable advances in structural biology in the past three decades have led to the determination of increasingly complex structures that lie at the heart of many important biological processes. Many of these advances have been made possible by the use of X-ray crystallography using synchrotron radiation. In this short article, some of the challenges and prospects that lie ahead will be summarized. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Making public ahead of print: Meetings and publications at the Royal Society, 1752?1892

OpenAIRE

Fyfe, Aileen; Moxham, Noah

2016-01-01

This essay examines the interplay between the meetings and publications of learned scientific societies during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, when journals were an established but not yet dominant form of scholarly communication. The practice of ‘making public’ research at meetings, long before actual ‘publication’ in society periodicals, enabled a complex of more-or-less formal sites of communication and discussion ahead of print. Using two case studies from the Royal Society of Lo...

Time orientation, planning horizons and responsibility into the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svenson, O.; Nilsson, G.

1988-01-01

Subjects of four categories (social science students, engineering students, retired people and nuclear waste experts) were asked about past events, planning, risks and future time with emphasis on energy related issues and in particular questions concerning spent nuclear waste. Among, the results reported it was found that events in the past were located more or less correctly and that events further back systematically too close to the present. Today's responsibility into the future was judged to cover 3 to 6 generations ahead and an adequate planning horizon for a local community to be on the average 11 to 14 years. Adequate planning horizons for the handling of spent nuclear fuel were judged to be from 100 to 500 years. The responsibility for effects of today's decisions was judged to be from about 100 to 300 years into the future for environmental pollution and from about 50 to 600 years for nuclear waste. However, non-negliqable proportions of the subjects choose a more moral standpoint and gave answers indicating that responsibility had to be unlimited. Some sex differences were found and an interaction with age offered as a hypothesis to be investigated in the future. Interrelations between clusters of questions revealed some links from past time and planning to judgements of environmental and nuclear power related risks. (orig.)

Ways of looking ahead: hierarchical planning in language production.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Eun-Kyung; Brown-Schmidt, Sarah; Watson, Duane G

2013-12-01

It is generally assumed that language production proceeds incrementally, with chunks of linguistic structure planned ahead of speech. Extensive research has examined the scope of language production and suggests that the size of planned chunks varies across contexts (Ferreira & Swets, 2002; Wagner & Jescheniak, 2010). By contrast, relatively little is known about the structure of advance planning, specifically whether planning proceeds incrementally according to the surface structure of the utterance, or whether speakers plan according to the hierarchical relationships between utterance elements. In two experiments, we examine the structure and scope of lexical planning in language production using a picture description task. Analyses of speech onset times and word durations show that speakers engage in hierarchical planning such that structurally dependent lexical items are planned together and that hierarchical planning occurs for both direct and indirect dependencies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interface of Science, Technology and Security: Areas of Most Concern, Now and Ahead

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-28

Ph.D. Co-director, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University Director Emeritus, Los Alamos National Laboratory...either modest, primitive sea-based civilizations, like the Orang Laut of the Malayan peninsula or the Uros of Lake Titicaca in the Andes mountains, or...areas of MosT concern, noW and ahead F Ig U R e 1 C h in a’ s O rg an iz at io n al S tr u ct u re f o r L if e S ci en ce /B io te ch n o lo g

Integration of look-ahead multicast and unicast scheduling for input-queued cell switches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yu, Hao; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Berger, Michael Stübert

2012-01-01

This paper presents an integration of multicast and unicast traffic scheduling algorithms for input-queued cell switches. The multi-level round-robin multicast scheduling (ML-RRMS) algorithm with the look-ahead (LA) mechanism provides a highly scalable architecture and is able to reduce the head...... module that filters out the conflicting requests to ensure fairness. Simulation results show that comparing with the scheme using WBA for the multicast scheduling, the scheme proposed in this paper reduces the HOL blocking problem for multicast traffic and provides a significant improvement in terms...

Herbert Fröhlich a physicist ahead of his time

CERN Document Server

Hyland, G J

2015-01-01

This biography provides a stimulating and coherent blend of scientific and personal narratives describing the many achievements of the theoretical physicist Herbert Fröhlich. For more than half a century, Fröhlich was an internationally renowned and much respected figure who exerted a decisive influence, often as a ‘man ahead of his time’, in fields as diverse as meson theory and biology. Although best known for his contributions to the theory of dielectrics and superconductivity, he worked in many other fields, his most important legacy being the pioneering introduction quantum field-theoretical methods into condensed matter physics in 1952, which revolutionised the subsequent development of the subject. Gerard Hyland has written an absorbing and informative account, in which Herbert Fröhlich’s magnetic personality shines through.

Education the Way Ahead? An Evaluation of a Pilot Course on Scenario Writing

Science.gov (United States)

Viebahn, Peter; Hilton, Gillian

2006-01-01

Scenario writing is a method to promote creative thinking and a proactive approach to dealing with the future. ATEE's Research and Development Centre "Curricula in Teacher Education" has adapted this method for use in teacher education. A Comenius funded course on Scenario writing was run over five days with teachers, teacher--educators,…

Keeping a Step Ahead: formative phase of a workplace intervention trial to prevent obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Zapka, Jane; Lemon, Stephenie C; Estabrook, Barbara B; Jolicoeur, Denise G

2007-11-01

Ecological interventions hold promise for promoting overweight and obesity prevention in worksites. Given the paucity of evaluative research in the hospital worksite setting, considerable formative work is required for successful implementation and evaluation. This paper describes the formative phases of Step Ahead, a site-randomized controlled trial of a multilevel intervention that promotes physical activity and healthy eating in six hospitals in central Massachusetts. The purpose of the formative research phase was to increase the feasibility, effectiveness, and likelihood of sustainability of the intervention. The Step Ahead ecological intervention approach targets change at the organization, interpersonal work environment, and individual levels. The intervention was developed using fundamental steps of intervention mapping and important tenets of participatory research. Formative research methods were used to engage leadership support and assistance and to develop an intervention plan that is both theoretically and practically grounded. This report uses observational data, program minutes and reports, and process tracking data. Leadership involvement (key informant interviews and advisory boards), employee focus groups and advisory boards, and quantitative environmental assessments cultivated participation and support. Determining multiple foci of change and designing measurable objectives and generic assessment tools to document progress are complex challenges encountered in planning phases. Multilevel trials in diverse organizations require flexibility and balance of theory application and practice-based perspectives to affect impact and outcome objectives. Formative research is an essential component.

1,000 Days: Mobilizing Investments for Healthier, More Prosperous Futures

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Lucy Martinez; Sakayan, Mannik; Cernak, Kimberly

2018-01-01

Good nutrition during the 1,000-day window between pregnancy and 2 years old can give children the opportunity to reach their full potential. Conversely, malnutrition early in life can cause irreversible damage to a child's brain development and physical growth, leading to a lifetime of poor health and lost potential. Each year, malnutrition costs…

Space station evolution: Planning for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Diaz, Alphonso V.; Askins, Barbara S.

1987-06-01

The need for permanently manned presence in space has been recognized by the United States and its international partners for many years. The development of this capability was delayed due to the concurrent recognition that reusable earth-to-orbit transportation was also needed and should be developed first. While the decision to go ahead with a permanently manned Space Station was on hold, requirements for the use of the Station were accumulating as ground-based research and the data from unmanned spacecraft sparked the imagination of both scientists and entrepreneurs. Thus, by the time of the Space Station implementation decision in the early 1980's, a variety of disciplines, with a variety of requirements, needed to be accommodated on one Space Station. Additional future requirements could be forecast for advanced missions that were still in the early planning stages. The logical response was the development of a multi-purpose Space Station with the ability to evolve on-orbit to new capabilities as required by user needs and national or international decisions, i.e., to build an evolutionary Space Station. Planning for evolution is conducted in parallel with the design and development of the baseline Space Station. Evolution planning is a strategic management process to facilitate change and protect future decisions. The objective is not to forecast the future, but to understand the future options and the implications of these on today's decisions. The major actions required now are: (1) the incorporation of evolution provisions (hooks and scars) in the baseline Space Station; and (2) the initiation of an evolution advanced development program.

Space station evolution: Planning for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Diaz, Alphonso V.; Askins, Barbara S.

1987-01-01

The need for permanently manned presence in space has been recognized by the United States and its international partners for many years. The development of this capability was delayed due to the concurrent recognition that reusable earth-to-orbit transportation was also needed and should be developed first. While the decision to go ahead with a permanently manned Space Station was on hold, requirements for the use of the Station were accumulating as ground-based research and the data from unmanned spacecraft sparked the imagination of both scientists and entrepreneurs. Thus, by the time of the Space Station implementation decision in the early 1980's, a variety of disciplines, with a variety of requirements, needed to be accommodated on one Space Station. Additional future requirements could be forecast for advanced missions that were still in the early planning stages. The logical response was the development of a multi-purpose Space Station with the ability to evolve on-orbit to new capabilities as required by user needs and national or international decisions, i.e., to build an evolutionary Space Station. Planning for evolution is conducted in parallel with the design and development of the baseline Space Station. Evolution planning is a strategic management process to facilitate change and protect future decisions. The objective is not to forecast the future, but to understand the future options and the implications of these on today's decisions. The major actions required now are: (1) the incorporation of evolution provisions (hooks and scars) in the baseline Space Station; and (2) the initiation of an evolution advanced development program.

Micro-generation dispatch in a smart residential multi-carrier energy system considering demand forecast error

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanjari, M.J.; Karami, H.; Gooi, H.B.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Combination of day-ahead and hour-ahead optimizations to design online controller. • Investigating the effect of load forecast error on the system operating cost. • Proposing effective method for hour-ahead resource re-dispatch. • Using the HSS algorithm as a powerful and effective optimization method. • Combining long-term and short-term strategies for optimal dispatch of resources. - Abstract: This paper deals with a residential hybrid thermal/electrical grid-connected home energy system incorporating real data for the load demand. A day-ahead scheduling (DAS) algorithm for dispatching different resources has been developed in previous studies to determine the optimal operation scheduling for the distributed energy resources at each time interval so that the operational cost of a smart house is minimized. However, demand of houses may be changed in each hour and cannot be exactly predicted one day ahead. System complexity caused by nonlinear dynamics of the fuel cell, as a combined heat and power device, and battery charging and discharging time make it difficult to find the optimal operating point of the system by using the optimization algorithms quickly in online applications. In this paper, the demand forecast error is studied and a near-optimal dispatch strategy by using artificial neural network (ANN) is proposed for the residential energy system when the demand changes are known one hour ahead with respect to the predicted day-ahead values. The day-ahead and hour-ahead optimizations are combined and ANN training inputs are adjusted according to the problem such that the economic dispatch of different energy resources can be achieved by the proposed method compared with previous studies. Using the model of the fuel cell extracted from experimental measurement and real data for the load demand makes the results more applicable in real residential energy systems.

A brief description of South Africa's present-day climate

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, F

2010-08-01

Full Text Available positive chill units. 31 Winter (Apr - Sep) CASE STUDY - Global change impacts on agriculture and water: South Africa?s Garden Route 33 7 Global change and human health 35 CASE STUDY - Environmental health: Bridging the gap between traditional... days). Annual (Jan - Dec) 31 Map 6.2 Intermediate future - present (degree days). Accumulated heat units. 31 Annual (Jan - Dec) Map 6.3 Accumulated positive chill units. Winter (Apr - Sep) 31 Map 6.4 Intermediate future - present. Accumulated...

Editorial Introduction: New Year Resolutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Terry Reese

2016-01-01

Full Text Available While New Year’s day came and went with very little fanfare at my house (well, if you don’t count our Star Wars marathon, I think I’d be remiss if I didn’t take the time to mark the passing of the new year, with a look ahead to the future.  And I think it is fitting, then, […

Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intra-day data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sevi, Benoit

2013-01-01

We use the information in intra-day data to forecast the volatility of crude oil at a horizon of 1 to 66 days using a variety of models relying on the decomposition of realized variance in its positive or negative (semi-variances) part and its continuous or discontinuous part (jumps). We show the importance of these decompositions in predictive regressions using a number of specifications. Nevertheless, an important empirical finding comes from an out-of-sample analysis which unambiguously shows the limited interest of considering these components. Overall, our results indicates that a simple autoregressive specification mimicking long memory and using past realized variances as predictors does not perform significantly worse than more sophisticated models which include the various components of realized variance. (author)

Electricity market clearing with improved dispatch of stochastic production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morales González, Juan Miguel; Zugno, Marco; Pineda, Salvador

2014-01-01

In this paper, we consider an electricity market that consists of a day-ahead and a balancing settlement, and includes a number of stochastic producers. We first introduce two reference procedures for scheduling and pricing energy in the day-ahead market: on the one hand, a conventional network...... attains higher market efficiency in expectation than the conventional day-ahead auction, it suffers from fundamental drawbacks with a view to its practical implementation. In particular, it requires flexible producers (those that make up for the lack or surplus of stochastic generation) to accept losses...... in some scenarios. Using a bilevel programming framework, we then show that the conventional auction, if combined with a suitable day-ahead dispatch of stochastic producers (generally different from their expected production), can substantially increase market efficiency and emulate the advantageous...

Patient preferences for future care - how can Advance Care Planning become embedded into dementia care: a study protocol

OpenAIRE

Robinson, Louise; Bamford, Claire; Beyer, Fiona; Clark, Alexa; Dickinson, Claire; Emmet, Charlotte; Exley, Catherine; Hughes, Julian; Robson, Lesley; Rousseau, Nikki

2010-01-01

Abstract Background People living with a long term condition may wish to be able to plan ahead, so that if in future they cannot make decisions, their wishes about their care will be known; this process is termed Advance Care Planning (ACP). In dementia, guidance stipulates that ACP discussions should take place whilst the person still has capacity to make decisions. However there is a lack of evidence on the effectiveness of ACP in influencing patient choice and resource use. The aims of thi...

Getting ahead communication skills for business English : learner's book

CERN Document Server

Jones-Macziola, Sarah

1994-01-01

Getting Ahead is a course for students at the pre-intermediate level who want to improve their English for business and professional purposes. It is suitable both for students who are preparing for work and those who are in employment already. At the same time as drawing on the learner's own experience, the course provides activities which give the less experienced learner the opportunity to participate effectively in meaningful communication. The main units are topic-based and focus on such themes as describing a company, welcoming visitors and dealing with problems. All four skills – listening, speaking, reading and writing – are developed. There are controlled practice tasks and meaningful communication activities, and the course as a whole provides a clear structural progression. The Home Study Book provides out-of-class activities which review and expand on what has been done in class. These activities are keyed at the back of the book to aid self-study. The Home Study CD contains all the listening a...

Getting ahead communication skills for business English : teacher's guide

CERN Document Server

Jones-Macziola, Sarah

1993-01-01

Getting Ahead is a course for students at the pre-intermediate level who want to improve their English for business and professional purposes. It is suitable both for students who are preparing for work and those who are in employment already. At the same time as drawing on the learner's own experience, the course provides activities which give the less experienced learner the opportunity to participate effectively in meaningful communication. The main units are topic-based and focus on such themes as describing a company, welcoming visitors and dealing with problems. All four skills – listening, speaking, reading and writing – are developed. There are controlled practice tasks and meaningful communication activities, and the course as a whole provides a clear structural progression. The Home Study Book provides out-of-class activities which review and expand on what has been done in class. These activities are keyed at the back of the book to aid self-study. The Home Study CD contains all the listening a...

Climate index for Belgium - Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of Belgium. (J.S.)

Climate index for Switzerland - Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of Switzerland. (J.S.)

Climate index for France - Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of France. (J.S.)

Climate index for Portugal - Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of Portugal. (J.S.)

Climate index for Spain - Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of Spain. (J.S.)

Can transparency be measured - a look ahead

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jorle, A.

2007-01-01

The simple answer to this question is no. But if you define the expression and decide transparency actually is, the answer might be different. Transparency means different things in different places. In one country transparency meant almost total access to anything that a government authority has in its possession. In another country transparency is more strict access to certain decisions, decisions makers or documents written with the sole purpose of informing the public. What variables could be found in the word transparent, what is a transparent regulator? In this short presentation we will deal with some important settings or fundamental prerequisites for a regulator calling itself transparent. Perhaps we should look at them in order of importance. Some days it is difficult to do all at once. As a final point, if we as regulators wish to call ourselves transparent in a future with diminishing national borders, fast electronic communication and increasing world wide media impact, what does the world require from us as regulators? (author)

Key technologies for the current and future challenges of the nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez-Sancho, Lou; Roulleaux Dugage, Martin

2017-01-01

The current challenges of the nuclear industry are the result of too many uncertainties: low GDP growth of OECD countries, booming state debts, deregulated electricity markets, growing safety regulation and diminishing public support. As a result, nuclear technology companies tend to entrench in their current installed base, while attempting to develop global partnerships to market their products to new nuclear countries, along with viable financing schemes. But new opportunities are lying ahead. In a future context of effective and global climate policies, nuclear energy will have to play a key role in a new energy ecosystem aside the two other clean air energy production technologies: renewable energies and electricity storage. And still, the perspective of long-term sustainability of nuclear energy is still high. This paper explores the opportunity for key innovative technologies to shift the way we think about nuclear in the future energy system while addressing these major challenges. (author)

The future belongs to diversity. Tailor-made products for successful mobility solutions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weber, Thomas [Daimler AG, Stuttgart (Germany). Group Research and Mercedes-Benz Cars Development

2013-08-01

What will the car of tomorrow look like? And how are the mobility needs of people changing? Aided by market research and through customer feedback, among other things, as well as using technology monitoring and future research, development experts at Daimler and Mercedes-Benz are finding answers to basic questions like these. These disciplines have a long tradition in the company. International research teams have worked for over 30 years on anticipating long-term trends and societal developments in order to transfer these to the topic of mobility. These proactive work methods - ''thinking ahead'' - generate new solutions in anticipation of changed conditions and new customer requirements rather than as a reaction to them. (orig.)

Developing community-driven quality improvement initiatives to enhance chronic disease care in Indigenous communities in Canada: the FORGE AHEAD program protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Naqshbandi Hayward, Mariam; Paquette-Warren, Jann; Harris, Stewart B

2016-07-26

Given the dramatic rise and impact of chronic diseases and gaps in care in Indigenous peoples in Canada, a shift from the dominant episodic and responsive healthcare model most common in First Nations communities to one that places emphasis on proactive prevention and chronic disease management is urgently needed. The Transformation of Indigenous Primary Healthcare Delivery (FORGE AHEAD) Program partners with 11 First Nations communities across six provinces in Canada to develop and evaluate community-driven quality improvement (QI) initiatives to enhance chronic disease care. FORGE AHEAD is a 5-year research program (2013-2017) that utilizes a pre-post mixed-methods observational design rooted in participatory research principles to work with communities in developing culturally relevant innovations and improved access to available services. This intensive program incorporates a series of 10 inter-related and progressive program activities designed to foster community-driven initiatives with type 2 diabetes mellitus as the action disease. Preparatory activities include a national community profile survey, best practice and policy literature review, and readiness tool development. Community-level intervention activities include community and clinical readiness consultations, development of a diabetes registry and surveillance system, and QI activities. With a focus on capacity building, all community-level activities are driven by trained community members who champion QI initiatives in their community. Program wrap-up activities include readiness tool validation, cost-analysis and process evaluation. In collaboration with Health Canada and the Aboriginal Diabetes Initiative, scale-up toolkits will be developed in order to build on lessons-learned, tools and methods, and to fuel sustainability and spread of successful innovations. The outcomes of this research program, its related cost and the subsequent policy recommendations, will have the potential to

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... Get help with family planning Get help with mental health Find girls' health information Stay ... Women and Girls HIV/AIDS Awareness Day National Women's Health Week Supporting Nursing Moms ...

Sharing wind power forecasts in electricity markets: A numerical analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Exizidis, Lazaros; Pinson, Pierre; Kazempour, Jalal

2016-01-01

In an electricity pool with significant share of wind power, all generators including conventional and wind power units are generally scheduled in a day-ahead market based on wind power forecasts. Then, a real-time market is cleared given the updated wind power forecast and fixed day......-ahead decisions to adjust power imbalances. This sequential market-clearing process may cope with serious operational challenges such as severe power shortage in real-time due to erroneous wind power forecasts in day-ahead market. To overcome such situations, several solutions can be considered such as adding...... flexible resources to the system. In this paper, we address another potential solution based on information sharing in which market players share their own wind power forecasts with others in day-ahead market. This solution may improve the functioning of sequential market-clearing process through making...

Oil futures and spot markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samii, M.V.

1992-01-01

In the last decade, the oil futures market has risen to prominence and has become a major factor in influencing oil market psychology and the crude oil market. On a normal day, over 92 thousand contracts, the equivalent of 92 million barrels per day, change hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX. This market has provided a vehicle for hedging against risk. At the same time, it has also created opportunities for speculation. Those who previously were unable to participate in oil market transactions can now become involved through the futures market. The large number of participants in the future market and the availability of information has made this market more efficient and transparent, relative to the crude oil market. While there has been considerable in-depth analysis of other future markets, relatively little theoretical attention has focused on that of oil. This paper looks at the following issues. First, what is the relationship between futures and spot oil prices? And secondly, are futures prices a good predictor of spot crude prices in the future? (author)

Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong; Choi, Jun-Young; Jin, Fei-Fei; Watanabe, Masahiro

2018-01-01

Future changes in rainfall have serious impacts on human adaptation to climate change, but quantification of these changes is subject to large uncertainties in climate model projections. To narrow these uncertainties, significant efforts have been made to understand the intermodel differences in future rainfall changes. Here, we show a strong inverse relationship between present-day precipitation and its future change to possibly calibrate future precipitation change by removing the present-day bias in climate models. The results of the models with less tropical (40° S-40° N) present-day precipitation are closely linked to the dryness over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, and project weaker regional precipitation increase due to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing1-6 with stronger zonal Walker circulation. This induces Indo-western Pacific warming through Bjerknes feedback, which reduces relative humidity by the enhanced atmospheric boundary-layer mixing in the future projection. This increases the air-sea humidity difference to enhance tropical evaporation and the resultant precipitation. Our estimation of the sensitivity of the tropical precipitation per 1 K warming, after removing a common bias in the present-day simulation, is about 50% greater than the original future multi-model projection.

A Data-driven Approach for Forecasting Next-day River Discharge

Science.gov (United States)

Sharif, H. O.; Billah, K. S.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on evaluating the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model, a simple Auto-Regressive with eXogenous input (ARX) model, and a Gene expression programming (GEP)-based model in one-day-ahead forecasting of discharge of a subtropical basin (the upper Kentucky River Basin). The three models were calibrated with daily flow at the US Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauging station not affected by flow regulation for the period of 2002-2005. The calibrated models were then validated at the same gauging station as well as another USGS gauge 88 km downstream for the period of 2008-2010. The results suggest that simple models outperform a sophisticated hydrological model with GEP having the advantage of being able to generate functional relationships that allow scientific investigation of the complex nonlinear interrelationships among input variables. Unlike SWAT, GEP, and to some extent, ARX are less sensitive to the length of the calibration time series and do not require a spin-up period.

Multi-market energy procurement for a large consumer using a risk-aversion procedure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zare, Kazem [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, P.O. Box 14115-111 (Iran); Conejo, Antonio J. [Castilla-La Mancha University, Ciudad Real (Spain); Carrion, Miguel [Castilla-La Mancha University, Toledo (Spain); Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran)

2010-01-15

This paper provides a technique to derive the bidding strategy in the day-ahead market of a large consumer that procures its electricity demand in both the day-ahead market and a subsequent adjustment market. Price uncertainty is modeled using concepts derived from information gap decision theory, which allows deriving robust decisions with respect to price volatility. Risk aversion is built implicitly within the proposed model. Correlations among prices in the day-ahead and the adjustment markets are properly modeled. The proposed technique is illustrated through a realistic case study. (author)

Multi-market energy procurement for a large consumer using a risk-aversion procedure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zare, Kazem; Conejo, Antonio J.; Carrion, Miguel; Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa

2010-01-01

This paper provides a technique to derive the bidding strategy in the day-ahead market of a large consumer that procures its electricity demand in both the day-ahead market and a subsequent adjustment market. Price uncertainty is modeled using concepts derived from information gap decision theory, which allows deriving robust decisions with respect to price volatility. Risk aversion is built implicitly within the proposed model. Correlations among prices in the day-ahead and the adjustment markets are properly modeled. The proposed technique is illustrated through a realistic case study. (author)

Disseminating NASA-based science through NASA's Universe of Learning: Girls STEAM Ahead

Science.gov (United States)

Marcucci, E.; Meinke, B. K.; Smith, D. A.; Ryer, H.; Slivinski, C.; Kenney, J.; Arcand, K.; Cominsky, L.

2017-12-01

The Girls STEAM Ahead with NASA (GSAWN) initiative partners the NASA's Universe of Learning (UoL) resources with public libraries to provide NASA-themed activities for girls and their families. The program expands upon the legacy program, NASA Science4Girls and Their Families, in celebration of National Women's History Month. Program resources include hands-on activities for engaging girls, such as coding experiences and use of remote telescopes, complementary exhibits, and professional development for library partner staff. The science-institute-embedded partners in NASA's UoL are uniquely poised to foster collaboration between scientists with content expertise and educators with pedagogy expertise. The thematic topics related to NASA Astrophysics enable audiences to experience the full range of NASA scientific and technical disciplines and the different career skills each requires. For example, an activity may focus on understanding exoplanets, methods of their detection, and characteristics that can be determined remotely. The events focus on engaging underserved and underrepresented audiences in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) via use of research-based best practices, collaborations with libraries, partnerships with local and national organizations (e.g. National Girls Collaborative Project or NGCP), and remote engagement of audiences. NASA's UoL collaborated with another NASA STEM Activation partner, NASA@ My Library, to announce GSAWN to their extensive STAR_Net network of libraries. This partnership between NASA SMD-funded Science learning and literacy teams has included NASA@ My Library hosting a professional development webinar featuring a GSAWN activity, a newsletter and blog post about the program, and plans for future exhibit development. This presentation will provide an overview of the program's progress to engage girls and their families through the development and dissemination of NASA-based science programming.

Thinking Ahead: Improving Support for People with Learning Disabilities and Their Families to Plan for the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Towers, Christine

2013-01-01

The increasing life expectancy of people with learning disabilities makes it imperative that families plan for the future. The number of people with learning disabilities over the age of 65 is predicted to double over the next two decades. The greatest increase in life expectancy will be amongst people with mild learning disabilities who will have…

The first SPIE software Hack Day

Science.gov (United States)

Kendrew, S.; Deen, C.; Radziwill, N.; Crawford, S.; Gilbert, J.; Gully-Santiago, M.; Kubánek, P.

2014-07-01

We report here on the software Hack Day organised at the 2014 SPIE conference on Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation in Montréal. The first ever Hack Day to take place at an SPIE event, the aim of the day was to bring together developers to collaborate on innovative solutions to problems of their choice. Such events have proliferated in the technology community, providing opportunities to showcase, share and learn skills. In academic environments, these events are often also instrumental in building community beyond the limits of national borders, institutions and projects. We show examples of projects the participants worked on, and provide some lessons learned for future events.

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... Get help with family planning Get help with mental health Find girls' health information Stay Connected ... the Call, Don't Miss a Beat National Women and Girls HIV/AIDS Awareness Day National Women's ...

Thinking ahead – the need for early Advance Care Planning for people on haemodialysis: A qualitative interview study

Science.gov (United States)

Horsley, Helen L; Shepherd, Kate; Brown, Heather; Carey, Irene; Matthews, Beverley; O’Donoghue, Donal; Vinen, Katie; Murtagh, Felicity EM

2015-01-01

Background: There is a need to improve end-of-life care for people with end-stage kidney disease, particularly due to the increasingly elderly, frail and co-morbid end-stage kidney disease population. Timely, sensitive and individualised Advance Care Planning discussions are acceptable and beneficial for people with end-stage kidney disease and can help foster realistic hopes and goals. Aim: To explore the experiences of people with end-stage kidney disease regarding starting haemodialysis, its impact on quality of life and their preferences for future care and to explore the Advance Care Planning needs of this population and the timing of this support. Study design: Semi-structured qualitative interview study of people receiving haemodialysis. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. Recruitment ceased once data saturation was achieved. Setting/participants: A total of 20 patients at two UK National Health Service hospitals, purposively sampled by age, time on haemodialysis and symptom burden. Results: Themes emerged around: Looking Back, emotions of commencing haemodialysis; Current Experiences, illness and treatment burdens; and Looking Ahead, facing the realities. Challenges throughout the trajectory included getting information, communicating with staff and the ‘conveyor belt’ culture of haemodialysis units. Participants reported a lack of opportunity to discuss their future, particularly if their health deteriorated, and variable involvement in treatment decisions. However, discussion of these sensitive issues was more acceptable to some than others. Conclusion: Renal patients have considerable unmet Advance Care Planning needs. There is a need to normalise discussions about preferences and priorities in renal and haemodialysis units earlier in the disease trajectory. However, an individualised approach is essential – one size does not fit all. PMID:25527527

3 CFR 8413 - Proclamation 8413 of September 10, 2009. Patriot Day and National Day of Service and Remembrance...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... lives we lost 8 years ago. On a bright September day, innocent men, women, and children boarded planes... next great chapter in our Nation’s history and ensure that future generations continue to enjoy the...

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... Don't Miss a Beat National Women and Girls HIV/AIDS Awareness Day National Women's Health Week ... family planning Get help with mental health Find girls' health information Stay Connected Blog Contact us Media ...

Planning Ahead or Living a Day at a Time? A Family History of AD and Retirement Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Zick, Cathleen D; Smith, Ken R; Mayer, Robert N

2016-09-01

We assess whether a family history of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is associated with the odds that healthy family members' engage in retirement planning activities. This is a cross-sectional study utilizing individual-level data from the Utah Population Database that have been linked to Medicare records and to responses from a retirement planning survey. Engagement in 3 retirement planning activities was estimated as a function of the number of parents and grandparents diagnosed with AD along with a set of fundamental socioeconomic and demographic covariates. Adults who had a parent with AD were 86% more likely to have seen a professional financial advisor and 40% less likely to plan to retire before age 65. Caregiving costs and/or knowledge of the familial risk of developing AD may provide adult children with a forewarning of their own future financial needs that, in turn, motivates them to engage in retirement planning. © The Author(s) 2016.

The future of the electric utility industry in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Threlkeld, R.

1995-01-01

A discussion of future changes in the electric power utility industry in Canada was presented. The impacts of deregulation were considered, including increased competition, and reduced profits resulting from it. Restructuring measures taken by BC Hydro to prepare for industry changes were described. Competition was not only expected to result from new electric utilities, but also gas utilities that are establishing themselves in the home heating business. Emphasis was placed on making the utilities' priorities, the same as their customers'. Flexibility of rate scheduling and increased dependence on customer-owned generation were needed to remain competitive. Exportation of surplus electricity and development of power utilities in developing nations was considered as a potentially lucrative development strategy. It was suggested that making use of strategic alliances within Canada and worldwide, will help to keep utilities ahead of the competition. A warning was issued to the effect that environmental concerns must always be considered well in advance of regulations since they are continually becoming more stringent. Making common cause with customers, and continuous improvement were considered to be the most important keys to future success for the industry

Breastfeeding: Planning Ahead

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... or duplicated without permission of the Office on Women’s Health in the U.S. Department of Health and ... the Call, Don't Miss a Beat National Women and Girls HIV/AIDS Awareness Day National Women's ...

Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

Science.gov (United States)

Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

Stochastic Optimization of Economic Dispatch for Microgrid Based on Approximate Dynamic Programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shuai, Hang; Fang, Jiakun; Ai, Xiaomeng

2018-01-01

slope updating strategy is employed for the proposed method. With sufficient information extracted from these scenarios and embedded in the PLF function, the proposed ADPED algorithm can not only be used in day-ahead scheduling but also the intra-day optimization process. The algorithm can make full use......-ahead and intra-day operation under uncertainty....

Personal carbon trading: A policy ahead of its time?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fawcett, Tina

2010-01-01

In 2008, the UK government undertook a review of personal carbon trading (PCT) and declared that it was 'an idea currently ahead of its time'. PCT is a radical policy proposal which would entail all adults receiving an equal, tradable carbon allowance to cover emissions from household energy and/or personal travel. The allowance would reduce over time, in line with national emissions reduction goals. The government's key concerns about PCT were its social unacceptability and high cost. This paper reviews the literature and identifies knowledge gaps, and then discusses whether these concerns are justified. Contrary to the government's conclusions, most research shows PCT to be at least as socially acceptable as an alternative taxation policy. People think it could be both fair and effective. Set-up and running costs for PCT will undoubtedly be higher than for alternative taxation policies. However, PCT could deliver benefits from individual and social change motivated by non-economic aspects of the policy. These potential benefits are outlined here. The conclusion is that PCT is a promising and timely policy idea.

Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

Future opportunities and future trends for e-infrastructures and life sciences: going beyond grid to enable life science data analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fotis ePsomopoulos

2015-06-01

Full Text Available With the increasingly rapid growth of data in Life Sciences we are witnessing a major transition in the way research is conducted, from hypothesis-driven studies to data-driven simulations of whole systems. In the context of the European Grid Infrastructure Community Forum 2014 (Helsinki, 19–23 May 2014, a workshop was held aimed at understanding the state of the art of Grid/Cloud computing in EU research as viewed from within the field of Life Sciences. The workshop brought together Life Science researchers and infrastructure providers from around Europe and facilitated networking between them within the context of EGI. The first part of the workshop included talks from key infrastructures and projects within the Life Sciences community. This was complemented by technical talks that established the key aspects present in major research approaches. Finally, the discussion phase provided significant insights into the road ahead with proposals for possible collaborations and suggestions for future actions.

Climate index for Belgium - Methodology; Indice climatique Belgique - Methodologie

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of Belgium. (J.S.)

Climate index for France - Methodology; Indice climatique France - Methodologie

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of France. (J.S.)

Climate index for Spain - Methodology; Indice climatique Espagne methodologie

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of Spain. (J.S.)

Indicators of gas gross markets - November 2009-December 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-12-01

For each month from November 2009 until December 2012, this document proposes a set of graphs which illustrate the evolution of gas price (day-ahead price in France, difference between the North gas exchange point and South exchange point, price volatility, difference between M + 1 PEG price and day-ahead price, day-ahead price in Belgium, Germany and Netherlands, relationship between import price and market price), the development of gas trade in France (transactions, volumes, supplied volume in European countries) and indicators related to infrastructures (availability in gas entry points, use of infrastructure with respect to price difference on markets)

Getting ahead communication skills for business English : home study book

CERN Document Server

Jones-Macziola, Sarah

1993-01-01

Getting Ahead is a course for students at the pre-intermediate level who want to improve their English for business and professional purposes. It is suitable both for students who are preparing for work and those who are in employment already. At the same time as drawing on the learner's own experience, the course provides activities which give the less experienced learner the opportunity to participate effectively in meaningful communication. The main units are topic-based and focus on such themes as describing a company, welcoming visitors and dealing with problems. All four skills – listening, speaking, reading and writing – are developed. There are controlled practice tasks and meaningful communication activities, and the course as a whole provides a clear structural progression. The Home Study Book provides out-of-class activities which review and expand on what has been done in class. These activities are keyed at the back of the book to aid self-study. The Home Study CD contains all the listening a...

An important day for European science

CERN Document Server

2009-01-01

Today is an important day for the future of European science. It is the day on which CERN’s relationship with the European Union reaches maturity. Ever since the early 1950s, CERN and the European project have grown together. CERN was a child of the European movement: the first discussions at Denis de Rougemont’s European Cultural Conference in Lausanne in 1949 led directly to the foundation of CERN in 1954. More recently, the European Union has become an Observer at the CERN Council, links between CERN and the EU have strengthened as Europe has pursued the goal of creating a European Research Area, and CERN has benefited from European support for projects as varied as Grid computing and future accelerator R&D, not forgetting, of course, the numerous Marie Curie fellows whose careers have received a boost thanks to European funds. Today, that collaboration goes one step further with the signature of a Memorandum of Understanding between CERN and the European C...

Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

2016-03-01

This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

An improved charging/discharging strategy of lithium batteries considering depreciation cost in day-ahead microgrid scheduling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Zhong; Wang, Jianxue; Wang, Xiuli

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A quantitative depreciation cost model is put forward for lithium batteries. • A practical charging/discharging strategy is applied to battery management. • The depth of discharge of the battery storage is scheduled more rationally. • The proposed strategy improves the cost efficiency of lithium batteries in MGs. - Abstract: An energy storage system is critical for the safe and stable operation of a microgrid (MG) and has a promising prospect in future power system. Economical and safe operation of storage system is of great significance to MGs. This paper presents an improved management strategy for lithium battery storage by establishing a battery depreciation cost model and employing a practical charging/discharging strategy. Firstly, experimental data of lithium battery cycle lives, which are functions of the depth of discharge, are investigated and synthesized. A quantitative depreciation cost model is put forward for lithium batteries from the perspective of cycle life. Secondly, a practical charging/discharging strategy is applied to the lithium battery management in MGs. Then, an optimal scheduling model is developed to minimize MG operational cost including battery depreciation cost. Finally, numerical tests are conducted on a typical grid-connected MG. Results show that the depth of discharge of storage is scheduled more rationally, and operational cost is simultaneously saved for MG under the proposed management strategy. This study helps to improve the cost efficiency and alleviate the aging process for lithium batteries.

LEAR looks ahead

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anon.

1985-06-15

From 19 to 26 January in Tignes in the French Alps, 180 members of CERN's newest physics community met to review progress and discuss plans for the future. These physicists use the LEAR low energy antiproton ring which came into action in 1983 and whose unique low energy beams have attracted an unanticipated level of participation from all over the world.

Political Skill as Moderator of Personality--Job Performance Relationships in Socioanalytic Theory: Test of the Getting Ahead Motive in Automobile Sales

Science.gov (United States)

Blickle, Gerhard; Wendel, Stephanie; Ferris, Gerald R.

2010-01-01

Based on the socioanalytic perspective of performance prediction ([Hogan, 1991] and [Hogan and Shelton, 1998]), this study tests whether the motive to get ahead produces greater performance when interactively combined with social effectiveness. Specifically, we investigated whether interactions of the five-factor model constructs of extraversion…

The future for weed control and technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaner, Dale L; Beckie, Hugh J

2014-09-01

This review is both a retrospective (what have we missed?) and prospective (where are we going?) examination of weed control and technology, particularly as it applies to herbicide-resistant weed management (RWM). Major obstacles to RWM are discussed, including lack of diversity in weed management, unwillingness of many weed researchers to conduct real integrated weed management research or growers to accept recommendations, influence or role of agrichemical marketing and governmental policy and lack of multidisciplinary research. We then look ahead to new technologies that are needed for future weed control in general and RWM in particular, in areas such as non-chemical and chemical weed management, novel herbicides, site-specific weed management, drones for monitoring large areas, wider application of 'omics' and simulation model development. Finally, we discuss implementation strategies for integrated weed management to achieve RWM, development of RWM for developing countries, a new classification of herbicides based on mode of metabolism to facilitate greater stewardship and greater global exchange of information to focus efforts on areas that maximize progress in weed control and RWM. There is little doubt that new or emerging technologies will provide novel tools for RMW in the future, but will they arrive in time? © 2013 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Pest Management Science © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Magnetic tomography - newer picture techniques and perspectives for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gjesdal, Kjell-Inge; Smith, Hans-Joergen

2000-01-01

Background: From the very introduction of MRI into medicine, the modality has presented the user a long list of theoretical tissue contrast parameters. The development of MRI has been aimed at turning these theoretical possibilities into practical options. Material and method: We give an overview of the new MRI techniques and perspectives for the future based on literature search and our own experience. Results: Today, the modality offers state-of-the-art anatomical details as well as visualisation of several functional parameters such as perfusion, diffusion, blood oxygen saturation and tissue temperature. In the near future, MRI may provide absolute quantification of regional perfusion and rate of oxygen consumption in a clinical setting. New vascular and gastrointestinal contrast media will further increase the sensitivity and specificity of MRI. A continuous increase in imaging speed has made MRI capable of providing adequate ''fluoroscopic'' guidance during interventional procedures and real-time diagnostic imaging is only few years ahead. Interpretation: The spread of MRI installations will increase as a result of increasing demand for the best and least harmful diagnostic procedure. The main challenge to the MRI community will be to exploit the vast diagnostic possibilities

Forging Ahead through Darkness: PCNA, Still the Principal Conductor at the Replication Fork.

Science.gov (United States)

Choe, Katherine N; Moldovan, George-Lucian

2017-02-02

Proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) lies at the center of the faithful duplication of eukaryotic genomes. With its distinctive doughnut-shaped molecular structure, PCNA was originally studied for its role in stimulating DNA polymerases. However, we now know that PCNA does much more than promote processive DNA synthesis. Because of the complexity of the events involved, cellular DNA replication poses major threats to genomic integrity. Whatever predicament lies ahead for the replication fork, PCNA is there to orchestrate the events necessary to handle it. Through its many protein interactions and various post-translational modifications, PCNA has far-reaching impacts on a myriad of cellular functions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

One-year changes in symptoms of depression and weight in overweight/obese individuals with type 2 diabetes in the Look AHEAD study

Science.gov (United States)

Depressed individuals are frequently excluded from weight loss trials because of fears that weight reduction may precipitate mood disorders, as well as concerns that depressed participants will not lose weight satisfactorily. The present study examined participants in the Look AHEAD study to determi...

Hysteresis of haptic vertical and straight ahead in healthy human subjects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tarnutzer Alexander A

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The subjective haptic vertical (SHV task requires subjects to adjust the roll orientation of an object, mostly in the roll plane, in such a way that it is parallel to perceived direction of gravity. Previously we found a tendency for clockwise rod rotations to deviate counter-clockwise and vice versa, indicating hysteresis. However, the contributing factors remained unclear. To clarify this we characterized the SHV in terms of handedness, hand used, direction of hand rotation, type of grasping (wrap vs. precision grip and gender, and compared findings with perceived straight-ahead (PSA. Healthy subjects repetitively performed adjustments along SHV (n = 21 and PSA (n = 10 in complete darkness. Results For both SHV and PSA significant effects of the hand used and the direction of rod/plate rotation were found. The latter effect was similar for SHV and PSA, leading to significantly larger counter-clockwise shifts (relative to true earth-vertical and objective straight-ahead for clockwise rotations compared to counter-clockwise rotations irrespective of the handedness and the type of grip. The effect of hand used, however, was opposite in the two tasks: while the SHV showed a counter-clockwise bias when the right hand was used and no bias for the left hand, in the PSA a counter-clockwise bias was obtained for the left hand without a bias for the right hand. No effects of grip and handedness (studied for SHV only on accuracy were observed, however, SHV precision was significantly (p  Conclusions Unimanual haptic tasks require control for the hand used and the type of grip as these factors significantly affect task performance. Furthermore, aligning objects with the SHV and PSA resulted in systematic direction-dependent deviations that could not be attributed to handedness, the hand used, or the type of grip. These deviations are consistent with hysteresis and are likely not related to gravitational pull, as they were

Antarctica Day: An International Celebration

Science.gov (United States)

Pope, A.; Hambrook Berkman, J.; Berkman, P. A.

2013-12-01

For more than half a century, the 1959 Antarctic Treaty continues to shine as a rare beacon of international cooperation. To celebrate this milestone of peace in our civilization with hope and inspiration for future generations, Antarctica Day is celebrated each year on December 1st , the anniversary of the Antarctic Treaty signing. As an annual event - initiated by the Foundation for the Good Governance of International Spaces (www.internationalspaces.org/) in collaboration with the Association of Polar Early Carer Scientists (www.apecs.is) - Antarctica Day encourages participation from around the world. The Antarctic Treaty set aside 10% of the earth, 'forever to be used exclusively for peaceful purposes in the interest of mankind.' It was the first nuclear arms agreement and the first institution to govern all human activities in an international region beyond sovereign jurisdictions. In this spirit, Antarctica Day aims to: - Demonstrate how diverse nations can work together peacefully, using science as a global language of cooperation for decision making beyond national boundaries, - Provide strategies for students learning about Antarctica through art, science and history at all school levels, - Increase collaboration and communication between classrooms, communities, researchers and government officials around the world, and - Provide a focus for polar educators to build on each year. Through close collaboration with a number of partners. Antarctica Day activities have included: a Polar Film Festival convened by The Explorers Club; live sessions connecting classrooms with scientists in Antarctica thanks to PolarTREC and ARCUS; an international activity that involved children from 13 countries who created over 600 flags which exemplify Antarctica Day (these were actually flown in Antarctica with signed certificates then returned to the classes); a map where Antarctica Day participants all over the world could share what they were doing; an Antarctic bird count

Atoms for the Future 2014 - Conference proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-10-01

'Atoms for the Future' is an annual event organized by the French Nuclear Energy Society Young Generation (SFEN-JG). Dedicated to the 'Design, Licensing and Construction of Nuclear Power Plants', Atoms for the Future 2014 has gathered 230 attendees in Paris, France. Participants were young professionals and students coming from more than 15 countries such as: China, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom, Mongolia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey. Atoms for the Future 2014 consisted of a two days of conferences and two days of technical tour, all of it in a friendly atmosphere. These two days of conferences given by high-ranked speakers from AREVA, EDF, CEA, ASN, IAEA, SOFINEL, Assystem, REEL, Alstom, Bouygues, etc. have provided an overview of the process leading to the construction of a new Nuclear Power Plant. All the main actors involved in this activity shared their vision and their experience with the audience, and provided to the Young Generation strong messages for the future. The first day of conferences gave the opportunity to attendees to understand regulatory, societal, economical and strategic issues of NPPs projects. The second day focused on the technical aspects and presented the different steps for the construction of a new NPP, from the design to the construction and commissioning. This document contains a short summary of the talks and the corresponding presentations (slides)

SU-C-BRF-07: A Pattern Fusion Algorithm for Multi-Step Ahead Prediction of Surrogate Motion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zawisza, I; Yan, H; Yin, F

2014-01-01

Purpose: To assure that tumor motion is within the radiation field during high-dose and high-precision radiosurgery, real-time imaging and surrogate monitoring are employed. These methods are useful in providing real-time tumor/surrogate motion but no future information is available. In order to anticipate future tumor/surrogate motion and track target location precisely, an algorithm is developed and investigated for estimating surrogate motion multiple-steps ahead. Methods: The study utilized a one-dimensional surrogate motion signal divided into three components: (a) training component containing the primary data including the first frame to the beginning of the input subsequence; (b) input subsequence component of the surrogate signal used as input to the prediction algorithm: (c) output subsequence component is the remaining signal used as the known output of the prediction algorithm for validation. The prediction algorithm consists of three major steps: (1) extracting subsequences from training component which best-match the input subsequence according to given criterion; (2) calculating weighting factors from these best-matched subsequence; (3) collecting the proceeding parts of the subsequences and combining them together with assigned weighting factors to form output. The prediction algorithm was examined for several patients, and its performance is assessed based on the correlation between prediction and known output. Results: Respiratory motion data was collected for 20 patients using the RPM system. The output subsequence is the last 50 samples (∼2 seconds) of a surrogate signal, and the input subsequence was 100 (∼3 seconds) frames prior to the output subsequence. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient between predicted and known output subsequence, the average correlation is 0.9644±0.0394 and 0.9789±0.0239 for equal-weighting and relative-weighting strategies, respectively. Conclusion: Preliminary results indicate that the prediction

London SPAN version 4 parameter file format

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-06-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised trading system. Powernext SA collaborates with the clearing organization LCH.Clearnet SA to secure and facilitate the transactions. The French Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk (SPAN) is a system used by LCH.Clearnet to calculate the initial margins from and for its clearing members. SPAN is a computerized system which calculates the impact of several possible variations of rates and volatility on by-product portfolios. The initial margin call is equal to the maximum probable loss calculated by the system. This document contains details of the format of the London SPAN version 4 parameter file. This file contains all the parameters and risk arrays required to calculate SPAN margins. London SPAN Version 4 is an upgrade from Version 3, which is also known as LME SPAN. This document contains the full revised file specification, highlighting the changes from Version 3 to Version 4

Non-linear growth: The road ahead for Indian IT outsourcing companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y.L.R. Moorthi

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Indian IT outsourcing companies (major among them being the SWITCH companies -- Satyam, Wipro, Infosys, TCS, Cognizant and HCL grew rapidly for more than a decade on low cost business process and IT outsourcing. With the bigger companies already reaching a high of 100,000 employees, they are now turning their attention to non-linear revenue (i.e. revenue less dependent on numbers or greater revenue earned per employee. For this they need to pursue ‘disruptive’ strategies which are distinctly different from the ‘incremental’ initiatives they adopted in the past to maintain linear revenue. This paper first outlines the disruptive and the incremental initiatives of the SWITCH companies and the road ahead for them. This is followed by an interview with S Gopalakrishnan, CEO and MD, Infosys Technologies who discusses the non-linear initiatives of the company and the challenges it faces in the field.

Streams and their future inhabitants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sand-Jensen, K.; Friberg, Nikolai

2006-01-01

In this fi nal chapter we look ahead and address four questions: How do we improve stream management? What are the likely developments in the biological quality of streams? In which areas is knowledge on stream ecology insuffi cient? What can streams offer children of today and adults of tomorrow?...

On the volatility-volume relationship in energy futures markets using intra-day data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

2011-01-01

This paper investigates the relationship between trading volume and price volatility in the crude oil and natural gas futures markets when using high-frequency data. By regressing various realized volatility measures (with/without jumps) on trading volume and trading frequency, our results feature a contemporaneous and largely positive relationship. Furthermore, we test whether the volatility-volume relationship is symmetric for energy futures by considering positive and negative realized semi-variance. We show that (i) an asymmetric volatility-volume relationship indeed exists, (ii) trading volume and trading frequency significantly affect negative and positive realized semi-variance, and (iii) the information content of negative realized semi-variance is higher than for positive realized semi-variance. (authors)

NA48: Wiring up for Change

CERN Multimedia

2001-01-01

The NA48 Collaboration is rebuilding its drift chambers ready for the experiment to start up again this coming July. An intricate task involving the soldering of over 24,000 wires! The future of the NA48 experiment is coming right down to the wire, that is, the wires which the Collaboration is installing in the clean room of Hall 887 on the Prévessin site. Six days a week, technicians are working in shifts to rebuild the experiment's drift chambers. The original chambers were damaged when a section of a vacuum tube imploded at the end of 1999. A year ago, CERN gave the green light for this essential part of the spectrometer to be rebuilt, so the NA48 experiment, which studies CP violation (see box), still has a bright future ahead of it. Three years of data-taking ahead The NA48 experiment aims to penetrate the secrets of CP (Charge Parity) violation. Charge and parity are two parameters which distinguish a particle from an antiparticle. In other words, an electron possesses a negative electric ...

Seismic Prediction While Drilling (SPWD): Seismic exploration ahead of the drill bit using phased array sources

Science.gov (United States)

Jaksch, Katrin; Giese, Rüdiger; Kopf, Matthias

2010-05-01

In the case of drilling for deep reservoirs previous exploration is indispensable. In recent years the focus shifted more on geological structures like small layers or hydrothermal fault systems. Beside 2D- or 3D-seismics from the surface and seismic measurements like Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) or Seismic While Drilling (SWD) within a borehole these methods cannot always resolute this structures. The resolution is worsen the deeper and smaller the sought-after structures are. So, potential horizons like small layers in oil exploration or fault zones usable for geothermal energy production could be failed or not identified while drilling. The application of a device to explore the geology with a high resolution ahead of the drill bit in direction of drilling would be of high importance. Such a device would allow adjusting the drilling path according to the real geology and would minimize the risk of discovery and hence the costs for drilling. Within the project SPWD a device for seismic exploration ahead of the drill bit will be developed. This device should allow the seismic exploration to predict areas about 50 to 100 meters ahead of the drill bit with a resolution of one meter. At the GFZ a first prototype consisting of different units for seismic sources, receivers and data loggers has been designed and manufactured. As seismic sources four standard magnetostrictive actuators and as receivers four 3-component-geophones are used. Every unit, actuator or geophone, can be rotated in steps of 15° around the longitudinal axis of the prototype to test different measurement configurations. The SPWD prototype emits signal frequencies of about 500 up to 5000 Hz which are significant higher than in VSP and SWD. An increased radiation of seismic wave energy in the direction of the borehole axis allows the view in areas to be drilled. Therefore, every actuator must be controlled independently of each other regarding to amplitude and phase of the source signal to

One Day on Earth

CERN Multimedia

2011-01-01

In collaboration with the CineGlobe Film Festival, the One Day on Earth global film project invites you to share your story of scientific inspiration, scientific endeavors and technological advancement on 11 November 2011 (11.11.11).   Technology in the 21st century continuously inspires us to re-imagine the world. From outer-space to cyberspace, new ideas that we hope will improve the lives of future generations keep us in a state of change. However, these new technologies may alter the nature of our shared existence in ways not yet known. On 11.11.11, we invite you to record the exciting ways that science is a part of your life, together with people around the world who will be documenting their lives on this day of global creation. See www.onedayonearth.org for details on how to participate.

Complement activation cascade triggered by PEG-PL engineered nanomedicines and carbon nanotubes: The challenges ahead

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moghimi, S.M.; Andersen, Alina Joukainen; Hashemi, S.H.

2010-01-01

reactions to certain PEG-PL engineered nanomedicines in both experimental animals and man. These reactions are classified as pseudoallergy and may be associated with cardiopulmonary disturbance and other related symptoms of anaphylaxis. Recent studies suggest that complement activation may be a contributing......, but not a rate limiting factor, in eliciting hypersensitivity reactions to such nanomedicines in sensitive individuals. This is rather surprising since PEGylated structures are generally assumed to suppress protein adsorption and blood opsonization events including complement. Here, we examine the molecular...... basis of complement activation by PEG-PL engineered nanomedicines and carbon nanotubes and discuss the challenges ahead....

Wind offering in energy and reserve markets

Science.gov (United States)

Soares, T.; Pinson, P.; Morais, H.

2016-09-01

The increasing penetration of wind generation in power systems to fulfil the ambitious European targets will make wind power producers to play an even more important role in the future power system. Wind power producers are being incentivized to participate in reserve markets to increase their revenue, since currently wind turbine/farm technologies allow them to provide ancillary services. Thus, wind power producers are to develop offering strategies for participation in both energy and reserve markets, accounting for market rules, while ensuring optimal revenue. We consider a proportional offering strategy to optimally decide upon participation in both markets by maximizing expected revenue from day-ahead decisions while accounting for estimated regulation costs for failing to provide the services. An evaluation of considering the same proportional splitting of energy and reserve in both day- ahead and balancing market is performed. A set of numerical examples illustrate the behavior of such strategy. An important conclusion is that the optimal split of the available wind power between energy and reserve strongly depends upon prices and penalties on both market trading floors.

Topics for Current and Future Consideration

Science.gov (United States)

Pappas, James P.; Jerman, Jerry

2011-01-01

What lies ahead for nontraditional doctorate programs? What issues should concern administrators, faculty, and scholars? Faculty and administrators raised concerns that the marketplace demand for "nontraditional doctoral programs" would pollute the academic purity and sanctity of traditional programs. The authors provide some considerations for…

The FORGE AHEAD clinical readiness consultation tool: a validated tool to assess clinical readiness for chronic disease care mobilization in Canada's First Nations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayward, Mariam Naqshbandi; Mequanint, Selam; Paquette-Warren, Jann; Bailie, Ross; Chirila, Alexandra; Dyck, Roland; Green, Michael; Hanley, Anthony; Tompkins, Jordan; Harris, Stewart

2017-03-23

Given the astounding rates of diabetes and related complications, and the barriers to providing care present in Indigenous communities in Canada, intervention strategies that take into account contextual factors such as readiness to mobilize are needed to maximize improvements and increase the likelihood of success and sustainment. As part of the national FORGE AHEAD Program, we sought to develop, test and validate a clinical readiness consultation tool aimed at assessing the readiness of clinical teams working on-reserve in First Nations communities to participate in quality improvement (QI) to enhance diabetes care in Canada. A literature review was conducted to identify existing readiness tools. The ABCD - SAT was adapted using a consensus approach that emphasized a community-based participatory approach and prioritized the knowledge and wisdom held by community members. The tool was piloted with a group of 16 people from 7 provinces and 11 partnering communities to assess language use, clarity, relevance, format, and ease of completion using examples. Internal reliability analysis and convergence validity were conducted with data from 53 clinical team members from 11 First Nations communities (3-5 per community) who have participated in the FORGE AHEAD program. The 27-page Clinical Readiness Consultation Tool (CRCT) consists of five main components, 21 sub-components, and 74 items that are aligned with the Expanded Chronic Care Model. Five-point Likert scale feedback from the pilot ranged from 3.25 to 4.5. Length of the tool was reported as a drawback but respondents noted that all the items were needed to provide a comprehensive picture of the healthcare system. Results for internal consistency showed that all sub-components except for two were within acceptable ranges (0.77-0.93). The Team Structure and Function sub-component scale had a moderately significant positive correlation with the validated Team Climate Inventory, r = 0.45, p < 0.05. The

Regional indexes for France. Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of regional weather indexes for France. Each regional index covers an homogenous area in terms of temperature represented by the biggest city. Five reference cities are used to represent the 22 economical regions of France (Paris Orly, Lyon, Marignane, Bordeaux and Strasbourg). (J.S.)

NASA’s Universe of Learning: Girls STEAM Ahead

Science.gov (United States)

Marcucci, Emma; Meinke, Bonnie K.; Smith, Denise A.; Ryer, Holly; Slivinski, Carolyn; Kenney, Jessica; Arcand, Kimberly K.; Cominsky, Lynn R.; Girls STEAM Ahead with NASA Team

2017-10-01

NASA Science Mission Directorate’s Universe of Learning (UoL) program enables scientists and engineers to more effectively engage with learners of all ages. The Girls STEAM Ahead with NASA education program within UoL, expands upon the former program, NASA Science4Girls and Their Families, in celebration of National Women’s History Month. The initiative partners the NASA’s Universe of Learning science education program resources with public libraries to provide NASA-themed activities for girls and their families, including hands-on activities for engaging girls, complementary exhibits, and professional development for library partner staff. The science-institute-embedded partners in NASA’s UoL are uniquely poised to foster collaboration between scientists with content expertise and educators with pedagogy expertise. The thematic topics related to NASA Astrophysics enable audiences to experience the full range of NASA scientific and technical disciplines and the different career skills each requires. The events focus on engaging underserved and underrepresented audiences in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) via use of research-based best practices, collaborations with libraries, partnerships with local and national organizations (e.g. National Girls Collaborative Project or NGCP), and remote engagement of audiences. This presentation will provide an overview of the program progress related to engaging girls and their families in NASA-based science programming.

Overestimation of on-road air quality surveying data measured with a mobile laboratory caused by exhaust plumes of a vehicle ahead in dense traffic areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Sang-Hee; Kwak, Kyung-Hwan; Bae, Gwi-Nam; Kim, Kyung Hwan; Kim, Chang Hyeok; Yook, Se-Jin; Jeon, Sangzin; Kwon, Sangil; Kim, Jeongsoo; Lee, Seung-Bok

2016-11-01

The unintended influence of exhaust plumes emitted from a vehicle ahead to on-road air quality surveying data measured with a mobile laboratory (ML) at 20-40 km h -1 in dense traffic areas was investigated by experiment and life-sized computational fluidic dynamics (CFD) simulation. The ML equipped with variable sampling inlets of five columns by four rows was used to measure the spatial distribution of CO 2 and NO x concentrations when following 5-20 m behind a sport utility vehicle (SUV) as an emitter vehicle equipped with a portable emission monitoring system (PEMS). The PEMS measured exhaust gases at the tailpipe for input data of the CFD simulations. After the CFD method was verified with experimental results of the SUV, dispersion of exhaust plumes emitted from a bus and a sedan was numerically analyzed. More dilution of the exhaust plume was observed at higher vehicle speeds, probably because of eddy diffusion that was proportional to turbulent kinetic energy and vehicle speed. The CO 2 and NO x concentrations behind the emitter vehicle showed less overestimation as both the distance between the two vehicles and their background concentrations increased. If the height of the ML inlet is lower than 2 m and the ML travels within 20 m behind a SUV and a sedan ahead at 20 km h -1 , the overestimation should be considered by as much as 200 ppb in NO x and 80 ppm in CO 2 . Following a bus should be avoided if possible, because effect of exhaust plumes from a bus ahead could not be negligible even when the distance between the bus and the ML with the inlet height of 2 m, was more than 40 m. Recommendations are provided to avoid the unintended influence of exhaust plumes from vehicles ahead of the ML during on-road measurement in urban dense traffic conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future heat waves and surface ozone

Science.gov (United States)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Bates, Susan; Pendergrass, Angeline; Lombardozzi, Danica

2018-06-01

A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

Trustworthy Critical Infrastructures via Physics-Aware Just-Ahead-Of-Time Verification

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2017-01-01

Dr. Saman Zonouz, assistant professor at Rutgers University, NJ and the director of the 4N6 Cyber Security and Forensics Laboratory is visiting CERN for a collaboration meeting. His previous works and research interests include PLC program analysis, security of embedded systems, and malware analysis and reverse engineering. Before the collaboration meeting, Dr. Zonouz is giving a 30-minutes-long talk, titled 'Trustworthy Critical Infrastructures via Physics-Aware Just-Ahead-Of-Time Verification', followed by Q&A and discussions. You can find the abstract of the talk below. The presentation is open to anyone interested, but please register on Indico to know the size of the room needed. (Please note the new room: 31/3-004, IT Auditorium.) Abstract Critical cyber-physical infrastructures, such as the power grid, integrate networks of computational and physical processes to provide the people across the globe with essential functionalities and services. Protecting these critical infrastructu...

Developments in the ATLAS Tracking Software ahead of LHC Run 2

CERN Document Server

Styles, N; The ATLAS collaboration

2014-01-01

After a hugely successful first run, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is currently in a shut-down period, during which essential maintenance and upgrades are being performed on the accelerator. The ATLAS experiment, one of the four large LHC experiments has also used this period for consolidation and further developments of the detector and of its software framework, ahead of the new challenges that will be brought by the increased centre-of-mass energy and instantaneous luminosity in the next run period. This is of particular relevance for the ATLAS Tracking software, responsible for reconstructing the trajectory of charged particles through the detector, which faces a steep increase in CPU consumption due to the additional combinatorics of the high-multiplicity environment. The steps taken to mitigate this increase and stay within the available computing resources while maintaining the excellent performance of the tracking software in terms of the information provided to the physics analyses will be presente...

Developments in the ATLAS Tracking Software ahead of LHC Run 2

CERN Document Server

Styles, N; The ATLAS collaboration; Salzburger, A

2015-01-01

After a hugely successful first run, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is currently in a shut-down period, during which essential maintenance and upgrades are being performed on the accelerator. The ATLAS experiment, one of the four large LHC experiments has also used this period for consolidation and further developments of the detector and of its software framework, ahead of the new challenges that will be brought by the increased centre-of-mass energy and instantaneous luminosity in the next run period. This is of particular relevance for the ATLAS Tracking software, responsible for reconstructing the trajectory of charged particles through the detector, which faces a steep increase in CPU consumption due to the additional combinatorics of the high-multiplicity environment. The steps taken to mitigate this increase and stay within the available computing resources while maintaining the excellent performance of the tracking software in terms of the information provided to the physics analyses will be presente...

The new building for Linac4 is ready ahead of schedule

CERN Multimedia

Francesco Poppi

2010-01-01

When various teams work together efficiently to achieve a common goal, not only are projects successfully completed but they may ever be ready before the deadline. On 22 October, after two years of civil engineering work and about two months ahead of schedule, the building that will host the new Linac4 was unveiled in the presence of the Director-General and of Steve Myers, Director for Accelerators and Technology.   Entrance to new Linac 4 tunnel. For the time being, the new two-storey 3000 m2 building looks like a huge empty hangar. Very soon, though, the ground floor will start to be filled with the technical equipment and the klystrons. The Linac4 itself will be installed in the tunnel excavated below the ground. “Being 12 metres underground, deep inside what remains of the old “Mount Citron”, the tunnel provides excellent shielding for the new accelerator”, says Maurizio Vretenar, Linac4 Project Leader. The tunnel will be connected to the PS Booster...

Full steam ahead for the CERN Accelerator School

CERN Multimedia

2003-01-01

The CERN Accelerator School (CAS), now in its 20th year, has a new head, Daniel Brandt. Here he talks to the Bulletin about the most recent school, which was held in collaboration with the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), and about the school's future. The CERN Accelerator School has been running since 1983. It holds training courses for accelerator physicists and engineers twice a year, with a pattern of introductory, intermediate and specialised courses. The courses, which take place in different Member States, consist of a programme of lectures and tutorials spread over a period of one or two weeks. Participants come from Member States and other countries world-wide. This year, CAS has a new head, Daniel Brandt, who has taken over from Ted Wilson. Brandt, an accelerator physicist, has been at CERN since 1981, working on aspects of LEP from the early days of design, and throughout most of its operation. More recently his responsibilities have included the LHC Heavy Ions Programme (Heavy Ions in the LHC). Th...

X-ray Polarimetry: From the Early Days to an Outlook for the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Weisskopf, Martin C.

2014-01-01

We present a historical (and personal) overview beginning with the pioneering contributions of Professor R. Novick and the team at the Columbia Astrophysics Laboratory. We will end with our (biased) outlook for the future.

What's Ahead for our National Parks?

Science.gov (United States)

George, Jean Craighead

1972-01-01

To insure the future of our National Parks, sweeping changes must be made. Encroaching civilization at the expense of nature has forced National Park officials to consider alternatives to future development - limiting number of visitors, facilities outside the parks and curtailing vehicular traffic. (BL)

Searching for Extraterrestrial Intelligence SETI Past, Present, and Future

CERN Document Server

Shuch, H Paul

2011-01-01

This book is a collection of essays written by the very scientists and engineers who have led, and continue to lead, the scientific quest known as SETI, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Divided into three parts, the first section, ‘The Spirit of SETI Past’, written by the surviving pioneers of this then emerging discipline, reviews the major projects undertaken during the first 50 years of SETI science and the results of that research. In the second section, ‘The Spirit of SETI Present’, the present-day science and technology is discussed in detail, providing the technical background to contemporary SETI instruments, experiments, and analytical techniques, including the processing of the received signals to extract potential alien communications. In the third and final section, ‘The Spirit of SETI Future’, the book looks ahead to the possible directions that SETI will take in the next 50 years, addressing such important topics as interstellar message construction, the risks and assump...

Information Architecture: Looking Ahead.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenfeld, Louis

2002-01-01

Considers the future of the field of information architecture. Highlights include a comparison with the growth of the field of professional management; the design of information systems since the Web; more demanding users; the need for an interdisciplinary approach; and how to define information architecture. (LRW)

CERN strives to stay ahead

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sutton, Christine.

1987-01-01

The paper examines the future of CERN, with respect to its proposed research programme and its need to save money. Proposals concerning what accelerators CERN should build for the future are outlined; machines such as the Large Hadron Collider and the CERN Linear Collider have been proposed. Experimental expectations for the first Large Electron Positron (LEP) collider (now close to completion) are briefly described, along with the experimental investigations for the second phase of operation of LEP where modifications will increase the machine's energy. Criticisms of CERN's management by its governing body are also discussed. (UK)

What Lies Ahead

Science.gov (United States)

2016-09-20

to eliminate low value added or unneeded expenses. Better Buying Power 2.0 got its official kickoff April 25 at the Defense Acquisition University’s...and become more capable. Nonetheless, all of us work hard every day to provide capability to our warfight- ers and value to the American taxpayers...deferred a few months. But, in the larger sense, I was wrong. I won’t belabor this, but after the tax bill passed in January it was clear that Congress

The connection: schooling, youth development, and community building-The Futures Academy case.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Henry Louis; McGlynn, Linda Greenough

2009-01-01

Universities, because of their vast human and fiscal resources, can play the central role in assisting in the development of school-centered community development programs that make youth development their top priority. The Futures Academy, a K-8 public school in the Fruit Belt, an inner-city neighborhood in Buffalo, New York, offers a useful model of community development in partnership with the Center for Urban Studies at the State University of New York at Buffalo. The goal of the project is to create opportunities for students to apply the knowledge and skills they learn in the classroom to the goal of working with others to make the neighborhood a better place to live. The efforts seek to realize in practice the Dewey dictum that individuals learn best when they have "a real motive behind and a real outcome ahead."

Grid-connected vehicles as the core of future land-based transport systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, Richard; Perl, Anthony

2007-01-01

Grid-connected vehicles (GCVs)-e.g., electric trains, metros, trams, and trolley buses-are propelled by electric motors directly connected to remote power sources. Their low at-vehicle energy consumption and ability to use a wide range of renewable energy sources make them strong contenders for urban and interurban transport systems in an era of energy constraints that favours use of renewable fuels, which may lie ahead. Needs for autonomous motorised mobility could be acceptably met in large measure by deployment of personal GCVs, also known as personal rapid transit (PRT). Alternatives, including fuel-cell vehicles and dual-drive vehicles fuelled with ethanol, will be less feasible. The 'car of the future' may not be an automobile so much as a PRT element of a comprehensive GCV-based system that offers at least as much utility and convenience as today's transport systems

Nuclear physics looks ahead

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anon.

1992-03-15

A very wide-ranging report published by the Nuclear Physics European Collaboration Committee (NuPECC) looks at the future of nuclear physics in general, and in Europe in particular. However in view of the increasing interplay between nuclear and particle physics, many of the report's recommendations are of wider interest.

Electricity Portfolio Management: Optimal Peak / Off-Peak Allocations

OpenAIRE

Huisman, Ronald; Mahieu, Ronald; Schlichter, Felix

2007-01-01

textabstractElectricity purchasers manage a portfolio of contracts in order to purchase the expected future electricity consumption profile of a company or a pool of clients. This paper proposes a mean-variance framework to address the concept of structuring the portfolio and focuses on how to allocate optimal positions in peak and off-peak forward contracts. It is shown that the optimal allocations are based on the difference in risk premiums per unit of day-ahead risk as a measure of relati...

ISG hybrid powertrain: a rule-based driver model incorporating look-ahead information

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Shuiwen; Zhang, Junzhi; Chen, Xiaojiang; Zhong, Qing-Chang; Thornton, Roger

2010-03-01

According to European regulations, if the amount of regenerative braking is determined by the travel of the brake pedal, more stringent standards must be applied, otherwise it may adversely affect the existing vehicle safety system. The use of engine or vehicle speed to derive regenerative braking is one way to avoid strict design standards, but this introduces discontinuity in powertrain torque when the driver releases the acceleration pedal or applies the brake pedal. This is shown to cause oscillations in the pedal input and powertrain torque when a conventional driver model is adopted. Look-ahead information, together with other predicted vehicle states, are adopted to control the vehicle speed, in particular, during deceleration, and to improve the driver model so that oscillations can be avoided. The improved driver model makes analysis and validation of the control strategy for an integrated starter generator (ISG) hybrid powertrain possible.

A look-ahead variant of the Lanczos algorithm and its application to the quasi-minimal residual method for non-Hermitian linear systems. Ph.D. Thesis - Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Aug. 1991

Science.gov (United States)

Nachtigal, Noel M.

1991-01-01

The Lanczos algorithm can be used both for eigenvalue problems and to solve linear systems. However, when applied to non-Hermitian matrices, the classical Lanczos algorithm is susceptible to breakdowns and potential instabilities. In addition, the biconjugate gradient (BCG) algorithm, which is the natural generalization of the conjugate gradient algorithm to non-Hermitian linear systems, has a second source of breakdowns, independent of the Lanczos breakdowns. Here, we present two new results. We propose an implementation of a look-ahead variant of the Lanczos algorithm which overcomes the breakdowns by skipping over those steps where a breakdown or a near-breakdown would occur. The new algorithm can handle look-ahead steps of any length and requires the same number of matrix-vector products and inner products per step as the classical Lanczos algorithm without look-ahead. Based on the proposed look-ahead Lanczos algorithm, we then present a novel BCG-like approach, the quasi-minimal residual (QMR) method, which avoids the second source of breakdowns in the BCG algorithm. We present details of the new method and discuss some of its properties. In particular, we discuss the relationship between QMR and BCG, showing how one can recover the BCG iterates, when they exist, from the QMR iterates. We also present convergence results for QMR, showing the connection between QMR and the generalized minimal residual (GMRES) algorithm, the optimal method in this class of methods. Finally, we give some numerical examples, both for eigenvalue computations and for non-Hermitian linear systems.

An econometric analysis of electricity demand response to price changes at the intra-day horizon: The case of manufacturing industry in West Denmark

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niels Framroze Møller

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The use of renewable energy implies a more variable supply of power. Market efficiency may improve if demand can absorb some of this variability by being more flexible, e.g. by responding quickly to changes in the market price of power. To learn about this, in particular, whether demand responds already within the same day, we suggest an econometric model for hourly consumption- and price time series. This allows for multi-level seasonality and that information about day-ahead prices does not arrive every hour but every 24th hour (as a vector of 24 prices. We confront the model with data from the manufacturing industry of West Denmark (2007-2011. The results clearly suggest a lack of response. The policy implication is that relying exclusively on hourly price response by consumers for integrating volatile renewable electricity production is questionable. Either hourly price variation has to increase considerably or demand response technologies be installed.

Nuclear physics looks ahead

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

A very wide-ranging report published by the Nuclear Physics European Collaboration Committee (NuPECC) looks at the future of nuclear physics in general, and in Europe in particular. However in view of the increasing interplay between nuclear and particle physics, many of the report's recommendations are of wider interest

Past and future changes in frost day indices on Catskill Mountain Region of New York

Science.gov (United States)

Changes in frost indices in the New York’s Catskill Mountains region, the location of water supply reservoirs for New York City, have potentially important implications. Frost day is defined as a day with Tmin < 0ºC. The objective of this study was to investigate past and predicted changes in minimu...

The value of flexibility in power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goutte, Stephane; Vassilopoulos, Philippe

2017-01-01

In this paper we attempt to quantify the net revenues that can be captured by a flexible resource able to react to the short term price variations on the day-ahead and intra-day markets in Germany. We find that the difference between day-ahead and intra-day revenues for a flexible resource has been increasing (although the profitability has been decreasing on both markets). This difference is more pronounced once 15 mn price variations can be captured by a flexible resource. The net revenues from the local 15 mn auction (which is held 3 hours after the hourly 'coupled' day-ahead auction) are more than eight times higher than the day-ahead hourly auction but below the net revenues that can be captured with the high prices from the continuous market. The results of the backward-looking empirical estimations allow us to distinguish and quantify two components of flexibility: (1) the 'immediacy' value as we are approaching real-time and the urgency of the delivery increases (this value is revealed during the continuous intra-day process and is highly linked to the stochastic nature of power supply and demand (i.e. wind/solar forecasts, forced outages of thermal generation,...) forecast error risk), and (2) the 'flexibility' component as a resource can react to variations of shorter granularity (15 mn Vs 60 mn). We model and quantify the 'flexibility' component. (authors)

Data Assimilation by Conditioning of Driving Noise on Future Observations

KAUST Repository

Lee, Wonjung

2014-08-01

Conventional recursive filtering approaches, designed for quantifying the state of an evolving stochastic dynamical system with intermittent observations, use a sequence of i) an uncertainty propagation step followed by ii) a step where the associated data is assimilated using Bayes\\' rule. Alternatively, the order of the steps can be switched to i) one step ahead data assimilation followed by ii) uncertainty propagation. In this paper, we apply this smoothing-based sequential filter to systems driven by random noise, however with the conditioning on future observation not only to the system variable but to the driving noise. Our research reveals that, for the nonlinear filtering problem, the conditioned driving noise is biased by a nonzero mean and in turn pushes forward the filtering solution in time closer to the true state when it drives the system. As a result our proposed method can yield a more accurate approximate solution for the state estimation problem. © 1991-2012 IEEE.

Analysis of Highly Wind Power Integrated Power System model performance during Critical Weather conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Basit, Abdul; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

2014-01-01

, is provided by the hour-ahead power balancing model, i.e. Simulation power Balancing model (SimBa. The regulating power plan is prepared from day-ahead power production plan and hour-ahead wind power forecast. The wind power (forecasts and available) are provided by the Correlated Wind power fluctuations (Cor......Wind) model, where the wind turbine storm controllers are also implemented....

Future Computing Technology (2/3)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2015-01-01

Computing of the future will be affected by a number of fundamental technologies in development today, many of which are already on the way to becoming commercialized. In this series of lectures, we will discuss hardware and software development that will become mainstream in the timeframe of a few years and how they will shape or change the computing landscape - commercial and personal alike. Topics range from processor and memory aspects, programming models and the limits of artificial intelligence, up to end-user interaction with wearables or e-textiles. We discuss the impact of these technologies on the art of programming, the data centres of the future and daily life. On the second day of the Future Computing Technology series, we will talk about ubiquitous computing. From smart watches through mobile devices to virtual reality, computing devices surround us, and innovative new technologies are introduces every day. We will briefly explore how this propagation might continue, how computers can take ove...

Plasma nanotechnology: past, present and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyyappan, M

2011-01-01

Low-temperature plasmas find numerous applications in growth and processing of nanomaterials such as carbon nanotubes, inorganic nanowires and others. This paper provides an overview of the history, current status of the literature, challenges ahead in some of the technical areas and the potential for plasma-grown nanomaterials in various nanotechnology applications.

Staff and Student Experiences of Dialogue Days, a Student Engagement Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Asghar, Mandy

2016-01-01

This paper reports the findings from a descriptive phenomenological exploration of the lived experience of dialogue days, a student engagement activity, from the perspectives of staff and students. I suggest that dialogue days enhance the relational and emotional aspects of learning with the potential to impact on future student engagement and…

Rotavirus Vaccines: a story of success with challenges ahead [version 1; referees: 3 approved

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel O’Ryan

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Approximately 40 years have passed since the discovery of the rotavirus and 10 years since the introduction and progressive dissemination of rotavirus vaccines worldwide. Currently, 92 countries have introduced rotavirus vaccines into national or subnational programs with evident impact in disease reduction. Two vaccines have been widely used, and four additional vaccines have been licensed and are being used in defined regions. In this context, one main issue that remains unsolved is the lower vaccine efficacy/effectiveness in low-income countries. An additional partially answered issue relates to rotavirus strain circulation in vaccinated populations. These issues are discussed in this review. The most imperative challenge ahead is to fulfill the WHO’s recommendation to introduce rotavirus vaccines in all countries.

Value-Creation Potential from Multi-Market Trading for a Hydropower Producer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marte Fodstad

2017-12-01

Full Text Available We study a hydropower producer’s potential for value-creation from multi-market trading given the price variations in the markets and the flexibility provided through access to hydro reservoirs. We use a perfect foresight optimization model for a price-taking hydropower producer co-optimizing his trades in the day-ahead, intra-day and balancing markets. The model is used on real market data from Norway, Sweden and Germany. The study shows a theoretical potential for added value when selling energy in multiple markets relative to optimal day-ahead sale. Most of this value is achievable also when the perfect foresight is limited to the period from day-ahead bidding until operation. Flexible production plants achieve the largest relative added values for multi-market sales, and has the largest benefit from a long horizon with perfect foresight.

Revolutionary impact of PET and PET-CT on the day-to-day practice of medicine and its great potential for improving future health care

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basu, S.; Alavi, A.

2009-01-01

In this communication, we present an overview of the impact and advantages of PET and PET-CT fusion imaging in the practice of medicine. We also discuss the evolution of this promising molecular imaging technique since its inception and the future prospects of the combined structure-function approach. Superior contrast resolution, accurate quantification and above all optimal image quality aid in improved diagnosis of many serious disorders including cancer. We speculate that this powerful imaging approach will almost completely replace most other conventional methods in the future. Currently, 18[F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) is the main radiopharmaceutical employed for PET studies around the globe. With the availability of high quality PET images on a routine basis in most centres around the world and the likelihood that several other useful PET tracers will be approved in the near future for routine clinical applications, this technique will likely become essential in almost any medical disorder. (authors)

77 FR 29525 - National Defense Transportation Day and National Transportation Week, 2012

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-18

... accelerate our economy in the years ahead. The need for strong and sustainable transportation networks has... remains strong, and our journey moves forward. In recognition of the importance of our Nation's transportation infrastructure, and of the men and women who build, maintain, and utilize it, the Congress has...

Big Data and Dementia: Charting the Route Ahead for Research, Ethics, and Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Ienca, Marcello; Vayena, Effy; Blasimme, Alessandro

2018-01-01

Emerging trends in pervasive computing and medical informatics are creating the possibility for large-scale collection, sharing, aggregation and analysis of unprecedented volumes of data, a phenomenon commonly known as big data. In this contribution, we review the existing scientific literature on big data approaches to dementia, as well as commercially available mobile-based applications in this domain. Our analysis suggests that big data approaches to dementia research and care hold promise for improving current preventive and predictive models, casting light on the etiology of the disease, enabling earlier diagnosis, optimizing resource allocation, and delivering more tailored treatments to patients with specific disease trajectories. Such promissory outlook, however, has not materialized yet, and raises a number of technical, scientific, ethical, and regulatory challenges. This paper provides an assessment of these challenges and charts the route ahead for research, ethics, and policy.

Evaluating the Impacts of Real-Time Pricing on the Cost and Value of Wind Generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siohansi, Ramteen

2010-01-01

One of the costs associated with integrating wind generation into a power system is the cost of redispatching the system in real-time due to day-ahead wind resource forecast errors. One possible way of reducing these redispatch costs is to introduce demand response in the form of real-time pricing (RTP), which could allow electricity demand to respond to actual real-time wind resource availability using price signals. A day-ahead unit commitment model with day-ahead wind forecasts and a real-time dispatch model with actual wind resource availability is used to estimate system operations in a high wind penetration scenario. System operations are compared to a perfect foresight benchmark, in which actual wind resource availability is known day-ahead. The results show that wind integration costs with fixed demands can be high, both due to real-time redispatch costs and lost load. It is demonstrated that introducing RTP can reduce redispatch costs and eliminate loss of load events. Finally, social surplus with wind generation and RTP is compared to a system with neither and the results demonstrate that introducing wind and RTP into a market can result in superadditive surplus gains.

Future directions for nursing administration.

Science.gov (United States)

Poulin, M A

1984-03-01

As the age of centralization wanes, nurse executives must look ahead. The author, noting a terrain obscured by the increasing complexity of nursing practice, points out the advantages of decentralizing decision making and of providing a distinctive nursing stamp to research and administration theory. Nurse executives, trained in management from early in their professional formation, can provide enlightened direction and flexible support for tomorrow's opportunities.

Generalized look-ahead number conversion from signed digit to complement representation with optical logic operations

Science.gov (United States)

Qian, Feng; Li, Guoqiang

2001-12-01

In this paper a generalized look-ahead logic algorithm for number conversion from signed-digit to its complement representation is developed. By properly encoding the signed digits, all the operations are performed by binary logic, and unified logical expressions can be obtained for conversion from modified-signed-digit (MSD) to 2's complement, trinary signed-digit (TSD) to 3's complement, and quaternary signed-digit (QSD) to 4's complement. For optical implementation, a parallel logical array module using electron-trapping device is employed, which is suitable for realizing complex logic functions in the form of sum-of-product. The proposed algorithm and architecture are compatible with a general-purpose optoelectronic computing system.

Day-to-day and within-day variation in urinary iodine excretion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Lone Banke; Ovesen, L.; Christiansen, E.

1999-01-01

Objective: To examine the day-to-day and within-day variation in urinary iodine excretion and the day-to-day variation in iodine intake. Design: Collection of consecutive 24-h urine samples and casual urine samples over 24 h. Setting: The study population consisted of highly motivated subjects fr...

An introduction to plant cell culture: the future ahead.

Science.gov (United States)

Loyola-Vargas, Víctor M; Ochoa-Alejo, Neftalí

2012-01-01

Plant cell, tissue, and organ culture (PTC) techniques were developed and established as an experimental necessity for solving important fundamental questions in plant biology, but they currently represent very useful biotechnological tools for a series of important applications such as commercial micropropagation of different plant species, generation of disease-free plant materials, production of haploid and doublehaploid plants, induction of epigenetic or genetic variation for the isolation of variant plants, obtention of novel hybrid plants through the rescue of hybrid embryos or somatic cell fusion from intra- or intergeneric sources, conservation of valuable plant germplasm, and is the keystone for genetic engineering of plants to produce disease and pest resistant varieties, to engineer metabolic pathways with the aim of producing specific secondary metabolites or as an alternative for biopharming. Some other miscellaneous applications involve the utilization of in vitro cultures to test toxic compounds and the possibilities of removing them (bioremediation), interaction of root cultures with nematodes or mycorrhiza, or the use of shoot cultures to maintain plant viruses. With the increased worldwide demand for biofuels, it seems that PTC will certainly be fundamental for engineering different plants species in order to increase the diversity of biofuel options, lower the price marketing, and enhance the production efficiency. Several aspects and applications of PTC such as those mentioned above are the focus of this edition.

Short-term hydropower production planning by stochastic programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fleten, Stein-Erik; Kristoffersen, Trine

2008-01-01

-term production planning a matter of spatial distribution among the reservoirs of the plant. Day-ahead market prices and reservoir inflows are, however, uncertain beyond the current operation day and water must be allocated among the reservoirs in order to strike a balance between current profits and expected......Within the framework of multi-stage mixed-integer linear stochastic programming we develop a short-term production plan for a price-taking hydropower plant operating under uncertainty. Current production must comply with the day-ahead commitments of the previous day which makes short...

Capacity expansion of stochastic power generation under two-stage electricity markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pineda, Salvador; Morales González, Juan Miguel

2016-01-01

are first formulated from the standpoint of a social planner to characterize a perfectly competitive market. We investigate the effect of two paradigmatic market designs on generation expansion planning: a day-ahead market that is cleared following a conventional cost merit-order principle, and an ideal...... of stochastic power generating units. This framework includes the explicit representation of a day-ahead and a balancing market-clearing mechanisms to properly capture the impact of forecast errors of power production on the short-term operation of a power system. The proposed generation expansion problems...... market-clearing procedure that determines day-ahead dispatch decisions accounting for their impact on balancing operation costs. Furthermore, we reformulate the proposed models to determine the optimal expansion decisions that maximize the profit of a collusion of stochastic power producers in order...

Effects of intraday trade on NorNed

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2011-06-15

In this report we study the effects of introducing intraday trade on the NorNed cable between Norway and the Netherlands, effectively increasing the geographical scope of the existing intraday markets in both countries, by analysing the effects on the incentives of existing and potential new market participants. The analysis of the effects on incentives is mainly based on a fundamental analysis of resource prices in the two countries, using the day-ahead supply curves in both countries. It also includes an analysis of the dynamics of trade, interdependencies between the different market time frames (day-ahead, intraday and balancing stage) and price behaviour. In addition we describe the day-ahead, intraday and balancing markets of the two countries and identify factors in the market designs which may affect the incentives for intraday trade. (Author)

Brief Report: Two Day-Date Processing Methods in an Autistic Savant Calendar Calculator

Science.gov (United States)

De Marco, Matteo; Iavarone, Alessandro; Santoro, Giovanna; Carlomagno, Sergio

2016-01-01

Special ability in computing the day of week for given dates was observed in a 24 year-old male (FB) diagnosed with Asperger syndrome. FB performed almost flawlessly (98.2%) both with past and future dates, over a span of 40 years. Response latency was slower as temporal remoteness of future dates increased. Within the future timespan, FB's…

Using Family Science Day Events to Inspire Future Scientists

Science.gov (United States)

Brevik, Corinne

2015-04-01

Dickinson State University organizes four Family Science Day events each fall to increase student engagement in the sciences. Offered on Saturday afternoons, each event focuses on a different science-related theme. Families can attend these events free of charge, and the kids participate in a large-variety of hands-on activities which center around the event's theme. Previous themes include The Amazing Telescope, Night of the Titanic, Dinosaur Prophecy, and Space Exploration. These events are amazing opportunities to show young children how much fun science can be. Many of the kids come from schools where science is neither interactive nor engaging. The activities help the children learn that science is a process of discovery that helps us better understand the world around us. University students staff all of the activity booths at these events, and this has proven to be a very valuable experience for them as well. Some of the students who help are majoring in a science field, and for them, the experience teaches public communication. They learn to break complicated concepts down into simpler terms that young kids can understand. Other students who help with these events are not science majors but may be taking a science course as part of their college curriculum. For these students, the experience reinforces various concepts that they are learning in their science class. For many of them, it also opens their eyes to the idea that science can be engaging. Some of them even discover that they have a true gift for teaching.

Tough Times Ahead for Government Labs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ban, Stephen; Buchanan, Michelle V.; Cheeks, Nona; Funsten, Herbert; Hawsey, Robert; Lane, Monya; Whitlow, Woodrow Jr.; Studt, Tim

2008-01-01

Many government R and D laboratory executives face a tough couple of months ahead. These anxieties are fueled by (1) possible management, technical direction, and budgetary changes in their agencies due to changes in the federal administration; (2) frozen operating budgets until March 2009 due to the Continuing Resolution (CR) attachment to the recent banking bailout bill; and (3) the financial fallout from the economic downturn. These and other pertinent questions regarding their R and D operations were addressed in R and D Magazine's 9th Annual Government R and D Executive Roundtable held on Oct. 16, 2008, in conjunction with the 46th Annual R and D 100 Awards at Chicago's Navy Pier. Most members of this year's government executive panel were hesitant to speculate on the changes that might occur in their labs as a result of the new administration. The exception to this stand was the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Robert Hawsey. ''No matter who wins (the Roundtable was held before the Nov. 4th Presidential election), we expect to see continued support,'' says Hawsey. ''All of our cooperative research facilities are over-subscribed and we're looking at how we can expand them.'' Obviously, renewable energy is a hot button in the administration and likely to get increased financial backing to help meet our country's energy independence goals. When pressed, the panel was mostly optimistic about their future support, stating that external threats to the U.S. have not changed, and research work associated with homeland security and national defense is unlikely to see drastic change. ''We have a strong portfolio in life science and don't expect any changes,'' says Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL's) Michelle Buchanan. Ongoing federally funded work at the national labs that was started before the Oct. 1st start of the FY2009 fiscal year will continue without any changes - those funds are unaffected by the CR action. This applies as well to any

Big Data and Dementia: Charting the Route Ahead for Research, Ethics, and Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcello Ienca

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Emerging trends in pervasive computing and medical informatics are creating the possibility for large-scale collection, sharing, aggregation and analysis of unprecedented volumes of data, a phenomenon commonly known as big data. In this contribution, we review the existing scientific literature on big data approaches to dementia, as well as commercially available mobile-based applications in this domain. Our analysis suggests that big data approaches to dementia research and care hold promise for improving current preventive and predictive models, casting light on the etiology of the disease, enabling earlier diagnosis, optimizing resource allocation, and delivering more tailored treatments to patients with specific disease trajectories. Such promissory outlook, however, has not materialized yet, and raises a number of technical, scientific, ethical, and regulatory challenges. This paper provides an assessment of these challenges and charts the route ahead for research, ethics, and policy.

Partial Meal Replacement Plan and Quality of the Diet at 1 Year: Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD) Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Raynor, Hollie A; Anderson, Andrea M; Miller, Gary D; Reeves, Rebecca; Delahanty, Linda M; Vitolins, Mara Z; Harper, Patricia; Mobley, Connie; Konersman, Kati; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth

2015-05-01

Little is known about diet quality with a reduced-energy, low-fat, partial meal replacement plan, especially in individuals with type 2 diabetes. The Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD) trial implemented a partial meal replacement plan in the Intensive Lifestyle Intervention. To compare dietary intake and percent meeting fat-related and food group dietary recommendations in Intensive Lifestyle Intervention and Diabetes Support and Education groups at 12 months. A randomized controlled trial comparing Intensive Lifestyle Intervention with Diabetes Support and Education at 0 and 12 months. From 16 US sites, the first 50% of participants (aged 45 to 76 years, overweight or obese, with type 2 diabetes) were invited to complete dietary assessments. Complete 0- and 12-month dietary assessments (collected between 2001 and 2004) were available for 2,397 participants (46.6% of total participants), with 1,186 randomized to Diabetes Support and Education group and 1,211 randomized to Intensive Lifestyle Intervention group. A food frequency questionnaire assessed intake: energy; percent energy from protein, fat, carbohydrate, polyunsaturated fatty acids, and saturated fats; trans-fatty acids; cholesterol; fiber; weekly meal replacements; and daily servings from food groups from the Food Guide Pyramid. Mixed-factor analyses of covariance, using Proc MIXED with a repeated statement, with age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and income controlled. Unadjusted χ² tests compared percent meeting fat-related and food group recommendations at 12 months. At 12 months, Intensive Lifestyle Intervention participants had a significantly lower fat and cholesterol intake and greater fiber intake than Diabetes Support and Education participants. Intensive Lifestyle Intervention participants consumed more servings per day of fruits; vegetables; and milk, yogurt, and cheese; and fewer servings per day of fats, oils, and sweets than Diabetes Support and Education participants. A greater

Predicting Drug Recalls From Internet Search Engine Queries.

Science.gov (United States)

Yom-Tov, Elad

2017-01-01

Batches of pharmaceuticals are sometimes recalled from the market when a safety issue or a defect is detected in specific production runs of a drug. Such problems are usually detected when patients or healthcare providers report abnormalities to medical authorities. Here, we test the hypothesis that defective production lots can be detected earlier by monitoring queries to Internet search engines. We extracted queries from the USA to the Bing search engine, which mentioned one of the 5195 pharmaceutical drugs during 2015 and all recall notifications issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) during that year. By using attributes that quantify the change in query volume at the state level, we attempted to predict if a recall of a specific drug will be ordered by FDA in a time horizon ranging from 1 to 40 days in future. Our results show that future drug recalls can indeed be identified with an AUC of 0.791 and a lift at 5% of approximately 6 when predicting a recall occurring one day ahead. This performance degrades as prediction is made for longer periods ahead. The most indicative attributes for prediction are sudden spikes in query volume about a specific medicine in each state. Recalls of prescription drugs and those estimated to be of medium-risk are more likely to be identified using search query data. These findings suggest that aggregated Internet search engine data can be used to facilitate in early warning of faulty batches of medicines.

The Roles of recognition processes and look-ahead search in time-constrained expert problem solving: Evidence from grandmaster level chess.

OpenAIRE

Gobet, F; Simon, H A

1996-01-01

Chess has long served as an important standard task environment for research on human memory and problem-solving abilities and processes. In this paper, we report evidence on the relative importance of recognition processes and planning (look-ahead) processes in very high level expert performance in chess. The data show that the rated skill of a top-level grandmaster is only slightly lower when he is playing simultaneously against a half dozen grandmaster opponents than under tournament con...

AMS Days: "the results are phenomenal"

CERN Multimedia

2015-01-01

Following the conclusion of the successful AMS Days at CERN (see here), we sat down with leading minds in space science and particle physics to discuss their thoughts on the recent positron-excess results as well as the future of the AMS physics programme.   Samuel Ting, AMS spokesperson: Roberto Battiston, President of the Italian Space Agency (ASI): William H. Gerstenmaier, Human Exploration and Operations Directorate, NASA: Edward C. Stone (Caltech), Voyager 1 and 2 principal investigator:

REEXAMINING THE EXPIRATION DAY EFFECTS OF STOCK INDEX DERIVATIVES: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

OpenAIRE

Chin-Lin Chuang; Dar-Hsin Chen; Chung-Hsien Su

2008-01-01

This study examines whether the expiration of derivative contracts affects the underlying spot assets in Taiwan. The expiration effect refers to abnormal return, price reversal, abnormal return volatility, and abnormal volume in underlying spot stock markets as derivatives contracts expire. Due to the unique settlement procedure in the Taiwan Futures Exchange, this study also examines if the expiration effects occur on the settlement day which is the next business day after the expiration day...

Past temperature reconstructions from deep ice cores: relevance for future climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Masson-Delmotte

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Ice cores provide unique archives of past climate and environmental changes based only on physical processes. Quantitative temperature reconstructions are essential for the comparison between ice core records and climate models. We give an overview of the methods that have been developed to reconstruct past local temperatures from deep ice cores and highlight several points that are relevant for future climate change. We first analyse the long term fluctuations of temperature as depicted in the long Antarctic record from EPICA Dome C. The long term imprint of obliquity changes in the EPICA Dome C record is highlighted and compared to simulations conducted with the ECBILT-CLIO intermediate complexity climate model. We discuss the comparison between the current interglacial period and the long interglacial corresponding to marine isotopic stage 11, ~400 kyr BP. Previous studies had focused on the role of precession and the thresholds required to induce glacial inceptions. We suggest that, due to the low eccentricity configuration of MIS 11 and the Holocene, the effect of precession on the incoming solar radiation is damped and that changes in obliquity must be taken into account. The EPICA Dome C alignment of terminations I and VI published in 2004 corresponds to a phasing of the obliquity signals. A conjunction of low obliquity and minimum northern hemisphere summer insolation is not found in the next tens of thousand years, supporting the idea of an unusually long interglacial ahead. As a second point relevant for future climate change, we discuss the magnitude and rate of change of past temperatures reconstructed from Greenland (NorthGRIP and Antarctic (Dome C ice cores. Past episodes of temperatures above the present-day values by up to 5°C are recorded at both locations during the penultimate interglacial period. The rate of polar warming simulated by coupled climate models forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year is compared to ice

Scenario generation for electric vehicles' uncertain behavior in a smart city environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, João; Borges, Nuno; Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali; Vale, Zita; Moura Oliveira, P.B. de

2016-01-01

This paper presents a framework and methods to estimate electric vehicles' possible states, regarding their demand, location and grid connection periods. The proposed methods use the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability of occurrence for each state and a fuzzy logic probabilistic approach to characterize the uncertainty of electric vehicles' demand. Day-ahead and hour-ahead methodologies are proposed to support the smart grids' operational decisions. A numerical example is presented using an electric vehicles fleet in a smart city environment to obtain each electric vehicle possible states regarding their grid location. - Highlights: • New concept/framework in smart cities context to estimate the states of electric vehicles and energy demand. • Monte Carlo Simulation and fuzzy logic probabilistic approach to support the envisaged concept. • A day-ahead and an hour-ahead stochastic scenarios generation to support the smart grid's operational decisions.

Anti-Nuclear antibodies: Current concepts and future direction for diagnosing connective tissue disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K Gautam

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Identification of antinuclear antibodies has been used for the diagnosis of connective tissue diseases for more than fifty years. Indirect immunofluorescence on human epithelial (HEp-2 cells is considered the gold standard screening method for the detection of antinuclear autoantibodies. As the demand of ANA testing increased, the need for automation and standardization has also come forth. A high level of false positive and false negative cases is seen in various populations making it difficult to take clinical decisions. Newer technologies were introduced for the antibody detection to ensure high sensitivity and specificity. This article intends to provide an overview of the concepts on ANA testing, the different diagnostic methods available, the various patterns and clinical utility, the clinical guidelines to be followed, the drawbacks and what lies ahead in the future of ANA testing.Journal of Pathology of Nepal (2015 Vol. 5, 766-773

Regional scenarios of future climate change over southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, F

2010-08-01

Full Text Available positive chill units. 31 Winter (Apr - Sep) CASE STUDY - Global change impacts on agriculture and water: South Africa?s Garden Route 33 7 Global change and human health 35 CASE STUDY - Environmental health: Bridging the gap between traditional... days). Annual (Jan - Dec) 31 Map 6.2 Intermediate future - present (degree days). Accumulated heat units. 31 Annual (Jan - Dec) Map 6.3 Accumulated positive chill units. Winter (Apr - Sep) 31 Map 6.4 Intermediate future - present. Accumulated...

Coping with complexity: past, present and future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hollnagel, E.

2012-01-01

not only for process plant operators but for everyone. And while computers in 1981 were looked upon as the solution, they are now seen as the source of the problem. This paper discusses why and how the meaning of 'coping with complexity' has changed over the years and speculate on what may lie ahead....

A Toxicology for the 21st Century—Mapping the Road Ahead

Science.gov (United States)

Hartung, Thomas

2009-01-01

The landmark publication by the National Research Council putting forward a vision of a toxicology for the 21st century in 2007 has created an atmosphere of departure in our field. The alliances formed, symposia and meetings held and the articles following are remarkable, indicating that this is an idea whose time has come. Most of the discussion centers on the technical opportunities to map pathways of toxicity and the financing of the program. Here, the other part of the work ahead shall be discussed, that is, the focus is on regulatory implementation once the technological challenges are managed, but we are well aware that the technical aspects of what the National Academy of Science report suggests still need to be addressed: A series of challenges are put forward which we will face in addition to finding a technical solution (and its funding) to set this vision into practice. This includes the standardization and quality assurance of novel methodologies, their formal validation, their integration into test strategies including threshold setting and finally a global acceptance and implementation. This will require intense conceptual steering to have all pieces of the puzzle come together. PMID:19357069

The day-night variation of cosmic rays intensity at sea level under the influence of meteorological fronts and troughs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mok, H.M.; Cheng, K.M.

2000-01-01

The day-night variation of cosmic rays (CR) intensity at sea level has been observed by a simple G-M counter telescope. We perform two 5 hours counting during the day and the night and find that the pattern of variation is closely related to the atmospheric disturbance. The normal pattern shows that the day counts is a few percents lower than that of the night counts. This can be simply explained by the temperature effect. But when our observation station is being affected by a meteorological front or trough, a reversal occurs. At times the reversal pattern occurs even up to a few days ahead the formation of the troughs at a few hundred kilometers away. Such a reversal may lasts for a few days until the influence of the front or trough has significantly weakened. This effect also overrides the barometric effect, except when there is a sharp change of air pressure, such as during the approach of a tropical cyclone. Our further investigation shows that the pattern of variation may be negatively correlated to the altitude of the 0degC level in the atmosphere. A 150 m upward shift of the 0degC level reduces the CR intensity by about 3-4%. Our postulation is that this variation of CR intensity is related to the relativistic effect of the muon decay, and is an indication of the height of the mid-level pressure distribution. The phenomenon should be further investigated for possible application in weather forecasting and better understanding of the phenomenon could be of use in differentiating the atmospheric effect and the solar effects in CR data. (author)

Sharing wind power forecasts in electricity markets: A numerical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Exizidis, Lazaros; Kazempour, S. Jalal; Pinson, Pierre; Greve, Zacharie de; Vallée, François

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Information sharing among different agents can be beneficial for electricity markets. • System cost decreases by sharing wind power forecasts between different agents. • Market power of wind producer may increase by sharing forecasts with market operator. • Extensive out-of-sample analysis is employed to draw reliable conclusions. - Abstract: In an electricity pool with significant share of wind power, all generators including conventional and wind power units are generally scheduled in a day-ahead market based on wind power forecasts. Then, a real-time market is cleared given the updated wind power forecast and fixed day-ahead decisions to adjust power imbalances. This sequential market-clearing process may cope with serious operational challenges such as severe power shortage in real-time due to erroneous wind power forecasts in day-ahead market. To overcome such situations, several solutions can be considered such as adding flexible resources to the system. In this paper, we address another potential solution based on information sharing in which market players share their own wind power forecasts with others in day-ahead market. This solution may improve the functioning of sequential market-clearing process through making more informed day-ahead schedules, which reduces the need for balancing resources in real-time operation. This paper numerically evaluates the potential value of sharing forecasts for the whole system in terms of system cost reduction. Besides, its impact on each market player’s profit is analyzed. The framework of this study is based on a stochastic two-stage market setup and complementarity modeling, which allows us to gain further insights into information sharing impacts.

An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Alessandrini, S.; Pinson, P.; Hagedorn, R.; Decimi, G.; Sperati, S.

2011-02-01

The wind power forecasts of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast applied in this study is based on meteorological models that provide the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. For this purpose a training of a Neural Network (NN) to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has been performed. One wind farm has been examined located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). First we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by the combination of models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error (normalized by nominal power) of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Finally we have focused on the possibility of using the ensemble model system (EPS by ECMWF) to estimate the hourly, three days ahead, power forecast accuracy. Contingency diagram between RMSE of the deterministic power forecast and the ensemble members spread of wind forecast have been produced. From this first analysis it seems that ensemble spread could be used as an indicator of the forecast's accuracy at least for the first three days ahead period.

Forging Ahead (linearized)

Science.gov (United States)

2004-01-01

This animation shows the front view from the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity as it drives north towards the eastern edge of the rock outcropping near its landing site at Meridiani Planum, Mars. The movie strings together images taken over the past six martian days, or sols, of its journey, beginning with a 1 meter (3 feet) stroll away from the lander on sol 7. On the 12th sol, Opportunity drove another 3 1/2 meters (11 feet), and then, one sol later, another 1 1/2 meters (5 feet). On its way, the rover twisted and turned in a test of its driving capabilities. This movie is made up of images taken by the rover's front hazard-identification camera, which were corrected for fish-eye distortion.

Two-Stage Optimal Scheduling of Electric Vehicle Charging based on Transactive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei; Ma, Kang

2018-01-01

In this paper, a two-stage optimal charging scheme based on transactive control is proposed for the aggregator to manage day-ahead electricity procurement and real-time EV charging management in order to minimize its total operating cost. The day-ahead electricity procurement considers both the day......-ahead energy cost and expected real-time operation cost. In the real-time charging management, the cost of employing the charging flexibility from the EV owners is explicitly modelled. The aggregator uses a transactive market to manage the real-time charging demand to provide the regulating power. A model...... predictive control (MPC) based method is proposed for the aggregator to clear the transactive market. The realtime charging decisions of the EVs are determined by the clearing of the proposed transactive market according to the realtime requests and preferences of the EV owners. As such, the aggregators...