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Sample records for danish stock market

  1. Jump Detection in the Danish Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben

    2002-01-01

    It is well known in financial economics that stock market return data are often modelled by a diffusion process with some regular drift function. Occasionally, however, sudden changes or jumps occur in the return data. Wavelet scaling methods are used to detect jumps and cusps in stock market...

  2. A Price Earnings Index for the Danish Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risager, Ole

    2004-01-01

    Price-earnings ratios are part of the toolkit that is used for assessing the valuation ofindividual firms on the stock market as well as the entire market itself. This paperpresents consistent P/E series for the liquid Danish shares adjusted for share buybacks.The results show that over the perio...... in Danish valuations was more moderate than in the US. The correction thatsets in subsequently reversed essentially the gains in the Danish P/E in the 1990s....

  3. A Price Earnings Index for the Danish Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risager, Ole

    2004-01-01

    Price-earnings ratios are part of the toolkit that is used for assessing the valuation ofindividual firms on the stock market as well as the entire market itself. This paperpresents consistent P/E series for the liquid Danish shares adjusted for share buybacks.The results show that over the period...

  4. The Value Premium on the Danish Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risager, Ole

    2005-01-01

    (1998)). The results for these markets are based on Morgan Stanley (MSCI) data. Since these data are softer due to a relatively short time horizon and due to a small number of stocks in some cases down at 10 stocks, the conclusions are likely to be less robust. There is therefore a need for more...... research on this issue. The purpose of this paper is to report evidence for the Danish stock market and to test whether the value premium is a genuine long-term feature of the market or just a phenomenon that pops up now and then. To research this issue we have collected accounting and stock market data......A number of influential studies have documented a strong value premium for US stocks over the period 1963 to 1990 (Fama and French (1992), Lakonishok et al. (1994)). Stocks with low price-earnings multiples, price-book values and other measures of value are reported to have given a higher mean...

  5. The Value Premium on the Danish Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risager, Ole

    2005-01-01

    (1998)). The results for these markets are based on Morgan Stanley (MSCI) data. Since these data are softer due to a relatively short time horizon and due to a small number of stocks in some cases down at 10 stocks, the conclusions are likely to be less robust. There is therefore a need for more...... return than the high multiple growth firms. Work by Basu (1997) and others have shown that the value dominance is also a feature of the earlier market history of the United States. The value premium is reported also to exist in a number of other countries over the period 1975 to 1995 (Fama and French...... research on this issue. The purpose of this paper is to report evidence for the Danish stock market and to test whether the value premium is a genuine long-term feature of the market or just a phenomenon that pops up now and then. To research this issue we have collected accounting and stock market data...

  6. Danish building typologies and building stock analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wittchen, Kim Bjarne; Kragh, Jesper

    energy savings in residential buildings. The intension with this analysis was to investigate the possible energy reduction in Denmark if the same approach had been taken for the entire Danish building stock. The report concludes that the ZeroHome initiative clearly results in energy savings, but far from......This report provides a summary of the national input from Denmark to the EPISCOPE project supported by Intelligent Energy Europe Programme of the EU. The strategic objective of EPISCOPE was to make the energy refurbishment processes in the European housing sector more transparent and effective...... enough to meet the government’s plan to make Danish buildings free from use of fossil fuels by 2035. This will probably require around 50 % energy savings in the Danish building stock as a whole. However, the project has proven that dedicated engagement of locals can speed up market penetration...

  7. A new daily dividend-adjusted index for the Danish stock market, 1985-2002: Construction, statistical properties, and return predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belter, Klaus; Engsted, Tom; Tanggaard, Carsten

    2005-01-01

    is given. In the second part of the paper we analyze the time-series properties of daily, weekly, and monthly returns, and we present evidence on predictability of multi-period returns. We also compare stock returns with the returns on long-term bonds and short-term money market instruments (that is......, the equity risk premium), and we compute the Hansen-Jagannathan bound to infer the properties of the underlying stochastic discount factor generating Danish asset returns....

  8. The Danish Retail Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aastrup, Jesper; Bjerre, Mogens; Kornum, Niels

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the Danish retail market. A detailed picture of the Danish grocery sector is provided, and we highlight issues from the specialty sectors of fashion and DIY as well as patterns of internationalisation among Danish retailers. We further profile the Danish consumer...... in terms of consumption patterns and demographic changes as well as some specific consumer tendencies with a special emphasis on sustainability issues. E-commerce is taken up as a special theme, both profiling the consumer side and the retailer side. This part is exemplified with books and groceries...

  9. Stock Market Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Distel, Brenda D.

    This project is designed to teach students the process of buying stocks and to tracking their investments over the course of a semester. The goals of the course are to teach students about the relationships between conditions in the economy and the stock market; to predict the effect of an economic event on a specific stock or industry; to relate…

  10. A Stock Market Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Christine; Cook, Stan

    1990-01-01

    Offers a field-tested stock market unit designed to develop mathematical skills involving fractions and decimals, basic understanding of the stock market, and hypothesis testing skills in real world situations. Includes tables displaying questions, tally sheets, and instructions, as well as a list of related activities. (MDH)

  11. Market demands to Danish pork

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bredahl, Lone

    2001-01-01

    . The study focuses on the development on the most important markets for Danish pork. The countries are Denmark, Japan, UK, Germany, Italy, France, USA, Russia and South Korea. The primary purpose is to identify market demands of importance to the Danish pork sector in order to maintain and strengthen its......Danish farmers produce more than 20 million slaughtering pigs every year and most of them are exported to markets all over the world. From a historical point of view, the United Kingdom has been the groundbreaking export market, but today Danish pork is exported to more than 100 countries...... position on its markets. It is expected that results of the analysis will be part of superior strategic decisions for the Danish pork sector as regards future Danish pork export markets. The market demands to be identified will therefore be evaluated in relation to resources and competences within the line...

  12. About stock markets predictability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hicham Benjelloun

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We argue that the financial markets have a predetermined outcome. They behave deterministically but appear to follow random patterns. Stock prices have nothing to do with future expectations; they are a reflection of previous convictions coming from the confident investors. A financial crisis is the result of the lack of confidence that characterizes a market moments before the crisis. Stocks returns are perfectly correlated to each other and it is possible to obtain high gains consistently. Finally we provide a different way of assessing risk and suggest a method to sense future performances.

  13. Stock Market Savvy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okula, Susan

    2003-01-01

    This issue of Keying In, the newsletter of the National Business Education Association, focuses upon teaching young adults how to develop both investment strategies and an understanding of the stock market. The first article, "Sound Investing Know-How: A Must for Today's Young Adults," describes how young adults can plan for their own…

  14. The market efficiency in the stock markets

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Jae-Suk; Kwak, Wooseop; Kaizoji, Taisei; Kim, In-mook

    2007-01-01

    We study the temporal evolution of the market efficiency in the stock markets using the complexity, entropy density, standard deviation, autocorrelation function, and probability distribution of the log return for Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500), Nikkei stock average index, and Korean composition stock price index (KOSPI). Based on the microscopic spin model, we also find that these statistical quantities in stock markets depend on the market efficiency.

  15. Perbandingan Stock Market Crash 1987 : Dan Stock Market Crash 1997

    OpenAIRE

    Indridewi Atmadjaja, Yovita Vivianty

    1999-01-01

    Stock market crash refers to the condition, which is marked with the large dropping of stock Market price index. Historically, stock market crash has happened three times, namely in 1929, 1987 and 1997. This paper will discuss the causes of 1987's and 1997's stock market Crash and the similarities and the differences between 1987's and 1997's stock market crash. The structure of the paper is as follows. The paper starts with the introduction. The second Section briefly explains the causes of ...

  16. Danish Labour Market Activation Policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Jon; Pedersen, Lisbeth

    2007-01-01

    Under the heading of flexicurity, Danish labour market activation policies are receiving international attention because of their perceived ability both to curb unemployment and to boost employment. Indeed, the objectives, target groups and design of activation policy have undergone a remarkable...... not only active labour market policies but also social and integration policies. Despite widespread popularity and belief in the positive effects of activation, little is actually known about its overall impact on the Danish economy....

  17. Energy savings in Danish residential building stock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tommerup, Henrik M.; Svendsen, Svend

    2006-01-01

    a short account of the technical energy-saving possibilities that are present in existing dwellings and presents a financial methodology used for assessing energy-saving measures. In order to estimate the total savings potential detailed calculations have been performed in a case with two typical...... buildings representing the residential building stock and based on these calculations an assessment of the energy-saving potential is performed. A profitable savings potential of energy used for space heating of about 80% is identified over 45 years (until 2050) within the residential building stock......A large potential for energy savings exists in the Danish residential building stock due to the fact that 75% of the buildings were constructed before 1979 when the first important demands for energy performance of building were introduced. It is also a fact that many buildings in Denmark face...

  18. Stocks low, marketers confident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mantho, M. [ed.

    1997-01-01

    This has been a nerve wracking season as we looked at inadequate inventory spurring prices ever upward. We have watched the American Petroleum Association`s figures on refiner stocks with considerable dismay as they consistantly fell behind year ago inventory. The anxiety extended to how much oil was in marketers` bulkplants and finally in customer tanks. And so, we asked our reporting panel to help us get a fix on how much oil was available for our customers. We asked the questions in early November and so all our figures are for that month. First we asked the capacity of their bulk tanks. And then how many gallons they had on hand November 1, 1996 and the same date of 1995. From these figures, we were able to get estimates of oil inventories. Marketers bulk tanks were 47.5% filled on November 1 which meant that there was on hand at this level, 36 gallons of heating oil for each customer. At that point in the season, customer tanks were 58% filled which translated into 218 gallons.

  19. Distribution characteristics of stock market liquidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jiawen; Chen, Langnan; Liu, Hao

    2013-12-01

    We examine the distribution characteristics of stock market liquidity by employing the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model and three-minute frequency data from Chinese stock markets. We find that the BCPE distribution within the GAMLSS framework fits the distributions of stock market liquidity well with the diagnosis test. We also find that the stock market index exhibits a significant impact on the distributions of stock market liquidity. The stock market liquidity usually exhibits a positive skewness, but a normal distribution at a low level of stock market index and a high-peak and fat-tail shape at a high level of stock market index.

  20. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

  1. Stock Market Index Computer Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowley, Eric

    1986-01-01

    Provides two computer programs, written in BASIC, to calculate average stock market price levels. The programs allow students to work directly from the raw price data that appear daily in the financial news. Teaching suggestions are provided. (JDH)

  2. Scaling analysis of stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bu, Luping; Shang, Pengjian

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, we apply the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), local scaling detrended fluctuation analysis (LSDFA), and detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) to investigate correlations of several stock markets. DFA method is for the detection of long-range correlations used in time series. LSDFA method is to show more local properties by using local scale exponents. DCCA method is a developed method to quantify the cross-correlation of two non-stationary time series. We report the results of auto-correlation and cross-correlation behaviors in three western countries and three Chinese stock markets in periods 2004-2006 (before the global financial crisis), 2007-2009 (during the global financial crisis), and 2010-2012 (after the global financial crisis) by using DFA, LSDFA, and DCCA method. The findings are that correlations of stocks are influenced by the economic systems of different countries and the financial crisis. The results indicate that there are stronger auto-correlations in Chinese stocks than western stocks in any period and stronger auto-correlations after the global financial crisis for every stock except Shen Cheng; The LSDFA shows more comprehensive and detailed features than traditional DFA method and the integration of China and the world in economy after the global financial crisis; When it turns to cross-correlations, it shows different properties for six stock markets, while for three Chinese stocks, it reaches the weakest cross-correlations during the global financial crisis.

  3. ---Stock Market Devpt in Ethiopia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Jetu_E_Ch

    many developing countries. In this respect, the challenges squarely recline on designing the legal frameworks capable of protecting the investor, preventing systemic crises and promoting the market they govern.3. In the Ethiopian context, the historical development of stock market traces its roots back to the Imperial period.

  4. On the Design of Artificial Stock Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin); A. de Bruin (Arie); U. Kaymak (Uzay)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractArtificial stock markets are designed with the aim to study and understand market dynamics by representing (part of) real stock markets. Since there is a large variety of real stock markets with several partially observable elements and hidden processes, artificial markets differ

  5. Outlook '98 - Stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vankka, D.

    1998-01-01

    In view of the recent drop of some 20 per cent in energy stock prices, and the decline in the value of the Canadian dollar, forecasting oilpatch financing in 1998 is a risky undertaking. Based on a variety of relevant factors, it is expected that there will be a slowdown in oil and gas financing deals in the short term. On the other hand, longer term outlook is bullish, based on the huge capital requirements over the next few years for conventional projects, heavy oil, oilsands and pipelines projects. Corporate mergers and acquisitions will continue at about the same rate as in 1997, as companies attempt to achieve ''economies of scale'' and growth in the most economically sensible manner. Adding production and reserves through corporate transactions at the current lower stock prices will be a powerful incentive. Creative deal structuring will become more prevalent. Corporate reorganizations into separate companies in search of value maximization will increase

  6. Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development

    OpenAIRE

    Valeriano F. García; Lin Liu

    1999-01-01

    Using pooled data from fifteen industrial and developing countries from 1980 to 1995, this paper examines the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development, particularly market capitalization. The paper finds that: (1) real income, saving rate, financial intermediary development, and stock market liquidity are important determinants of stock market capitalization; (2) macroeconomic volatility does not prove significant; and (3) stock market development and financial intermediary deve...

  7. Gold-Stock Market Relationship: Emerging Markets versus Developed Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalal Seifoddini

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We perform a comparative study on the gold-stock market relationship in U.S. stock market as a developed market and in Iran stock market as an emerging market. By considering appropriate variables for emerging markets and by providing a more proper methodology, we improve earlier studies. According to our findings, the relationship between stock market returns and gold price returns does not follow any specific regimes and that this relationship changes in short and long term returns. It is necessary to mention that in the present research, we did not consider this relationship in major structural changes in the economies and instead considered usual economic circumstances that investors are regularly faced with in their investment decisions.

  8. Stock Market Efficiency in Thin Trading Markets: The Case of the Vietnamese Stock Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dong Loc, T.; Lanjouw, G.; Lensink, B.W.

    2010-01-01

    This article reviews developments in the Stock Trading Centre (STC) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, the main stock market in the country, since its start in 2000. It presents information about developments in the number of stocks traded, trading activity and stock-price developments. This article

  9. Elements of stock market analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suciu, T.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper represents a starting point in the presentation of the two types of stock/market analysis: the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis. The fundamental analysis consist in the assessment of the financial and economic status of the company together with the context and macroeconomic environment where it activates. The technical analysis deals with the demand and supply of securities and the evolution of their trend on the market, using a range of graphics and charts to illustrate the market tendencies for the quick identification of the best moments to buy or sell.

  10. Online Stock Market Games for High Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopus, Jane; Placone, Dennis

    2002-01-01

    Identifies a Web site providing information about stock market simulations for high school economics courses. Divides the information into two tables: (1) the structure of online stock market games; and (2) the determination of portfolio values of online stock market games. States that changes and updates are available at Web sites. (JEH)

  11. Comparable stocks, boundedly rational stock markets and IPO entry rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay Chok

    Full Text Available In this study, we examine how initial public offerings (IPO entry rates are affected when stock markets are boundedly rational and IPO firms infer information from their counterparts in the market. We hypothesize a curvilinear relationship between the number of comparable stocks and initial public offerings (IPO entry rates into the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Furthermore, we argue that trading volume and changes in stock returns partially mediates the relationship between the number of comparable stocks and IPO entry rates. The statistical evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses.

  12. Comparable stocks, boundedly rational stock markets and IPO entry rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chok, Jay; Qian, Jifeng

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we examine how initial public offerings (IPO) entry rates are affected when stock markets are boundedly rational and IPO firms infer information from their counterparts in the market. We hypothesize a curvilinear relationship between the number of comparable stocks and initial public offerings (IPO) entry rates into the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Furthermore, we argue that trading volume and changes in stock returns partially mediates the relationship between the number of comparable stocks and IPO entry rates. The statistical evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses.

  13. Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

  14. Are Stock and Corporate Bond Markets Integrated?

    OpenAIRE

    van Zundert, J.; Driessen, Joost

    2017-01-01

    This study explores the cross-sectional integration of stock and corporate bond markets by comparing a firm’s expected stock return, as implied by corporate bond spreads, to its realized stock return. We compute expected corporate bond returns by correcting credit spreads for expected losses due to default, which are then transformed into expected stock returns. We find, surprisingly, a strong negative cross-sectional relation between these expected and realized stock returns over the period ...

  15. Energy savings in the Danish building stock until 2050

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wittchen, Kim Bjarne; Kragh, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    A study has been conducted analysing the energy savings for space heating and domestic hot water in the Danish building stock due to renovation of building components at the end of their service life. The purpose of the study was to estimate the energy savings until 2050 as building components...... are energy upgraded according to the requirements stipulated in the Danish Building Regulations 2010. Furthermore, scenario analyses was made for the potential impact on the energy consumption of introducing different levels of tightening of the energy requirements for existing buildings in the Danish...... Building Regulations. Compliance with the requirements in the Danish Building Regulations will potentially result in energy savings for space heating and domestic hot water around 30 % until 2050. Further tightening of the component insulation level requirements will only result in marginally higher...

  16. Model for correlations in stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh

    2000-05-01

    We propose a group model for correlations in stock markets. In the group model the markets are composed of several groups, within which the stock price fluctuations are correlated. The spectral properties of empirical correlation matrices reported recently are well understood from the model. It provides the connection between the spectral properties of the empirical correlation matrix and the structure of correlations in stock markets.

  17. Taxation, Transfer Income and Stock Market Participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Marcel; Astrup Jensen, Bjarne

    are not harmonized because poorer agents mainly use their transfer income to finance present consumption. (ii) Since the evolution of the economy determines both the level of tax revenues and the evolution of the stock market, transfer income is subject to stock market risk. Hence, poorer agents optimally reduce...... their equity shares. This can happen to an extent that they optimally no longer participate in the stock market....

  18. Stock Market Liquidity: Comparative Analysis of Croatian and Regional Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Vladimir Benić; Ivna Franić

    2008-01-01

    On the Croatian stock market liquidity has never been in the focus of academic research, thus we find it necessary to observe liquidity at the aggregate level. This paper observes multi-dimensional liquidity through the impact of turnover on price change together with several one-dimensional measures. In our empirical research we applythe illiquidity measureto seven different stock markets. We focus on the Croatian stock market as compared to other markets in the Central and Eastern Europe an...

  19. Are Stock and Corporate Bond Markets Integrated?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Zundert, J.; Driessen, Joost

    2017-01-01

    This study explores the cross-sectional integration of stock and corporate bond markets by comparing a firm’s expected stock return, as implied by corporate bond spreads, to its realized stock return. We compute expected corporate bond returns by correcting credit spreads for expected losses due to

  20. The effect of firm and stock characteristics on stock returns: Stock market crash analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rizaldi Fauzi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine characteristics of stocks and firms that are deliberately affected by stock market crash occurring in Indonesia. The study uses data for three major stock market crashes that occurred in 1997, 2000, and 2008. The analysis is accomplished by using multivariate regression method. The results of the study find that stocks with higher betas, larger capitalization, more return volatility, higher debt ratios, lower levels of liquid assets, and lower asset profitability tend to lose more value on crash day. This study also finds that there are short-term and long-term momentum effects on stock returns during most of stock market crashes.

  1. Long - Memory Persistence in African Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Numapau Gyamfi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Emerging stock markets are said to become efficient with time. This study seeks to investigate this assertion by analyzing long - memory persistence in 8 African stock markets covering the period from 28 August 2000 to 28 August 2015. The Hurst exponent is used as our efficiency measure which is evaluated by the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA. Our findings show strong evidence of long - memory persistence in the markets studied therefore violating the weak - form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH.

  2. Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much

  3. Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, Worldwide

    OpenAIRE

    Francis X. Diebold; Kamil Yilmaz

    2008-01-01

    Notwithstanding its impressive contributions to empirical financial economics, there remains a significant gap in the volatility literature, namely its relative neglect of the connection between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset return volatility. We progress by analyzing a broad international cross section of stock markets covering approximately forty countries. We find a clear link between macroeconomic fundamentals and stock market volatilities, with volatile fundamentals translating in...

  4. Does Stock Market Performance Influence Retirement Intentions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goda, Gopi Shah; Shoven, John B.; Slavov, Sita Nataraj

    2012-01-01

    Media reports predicted that the stock market decline in October 2008 would cause changes in retirement intentions, due to declines in retirement assets. We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study to investigate the relationship between stock market performance and retirement intentions during 1998-2008, a period that includes the…

  5. Recurrence quantification analysis of global stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, João A.; Caiado, Jorge

    2011-04-01

    This study investigates the presence of deterministic dependencies in international stock markets using recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). The results are based on a large set of free float-adjusted market capitalization stock indices, covering a period of 15 years. The statistical tests suggest that the dynamics of stock prices in emerging markets is characterized by higher values of RQA measures when compared to their developed counterparts. The behavior of stock markets during critical financial events, such as the burst of the technology bubble, the Asian currency crisis, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis, is analyzed by performing RQA in sliding windows. It is shown that during these events stock markets exhibit a distinctive behavior that is characterized by temporary decreases in the fraction of recurrence points contained in diagonal and vertical structures.

  6. Energy savings in the Danish building stock until 2050

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wittchen, Kim Bjarne; Kragh, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    are energy upgraded according to the requirements stipulated in the Danish Building Regulations 2010. Furthermore, scenario analyses was made for the potential impact on the energy consumption of introducing different levels of tightening of the energy requirements for existing buildings in the Danish...... savings, due to the level of the current requirements. Higher energy savings can, though, be achieved e.g. by setting requirements for balanced mechanical ventilation with heat recovery and use of solar heating for domestic hot water.......A study has been conducted analysing the energy savings for space heating and domestic hot water in the Danish building stock due to renovation of building components at the end of their service life. The purpose of the study was to estimate the energy savings until 2050 as building components...

  7. Marginalisation Processes in the Danish Labour Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pico Geerdsen, Lars

    In the Ph.D Thesis, the author examines whether there is a tendency that unemployed individuals choose to leave the unemployment insurance system when they are faced with the threat of active labour market policy. The results presented in the thesis do indicate that unemployed individuals....... The analysis is bases on 10% of the Danish population between 25 and 45 years extracted from Danish Labour market data during the period 1994-1998. The report contains also two other analyses: analysis of unemplyed individuals' behaviour in cennection with the termination of the unemployment insunrance system...

  8. Stock Market Manipulation on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dionigi Gerace

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study is the first to empirically examine stock market manipulation on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The dataset contains 40 cases of market manipulation from 1996 to 2009 that were successfully prosecuted by the Hong Kong Securities & Futures Commission. Manipulation is found to negatively impact market efficiency measures such as the bid-ask spread and volatility. Markets appear incapable of efficiently responding to the presence of manipulators and are characterised by information asymmetry. Manipulators were successfully able to raise prices and exit the market. This finding contradicts views that trade-based manipulation is entirely unprofitable and self-deterring. The victimisation of information-seeking investors and the market as a whole provides a strong rationale for all jurisdictions, including Australia, to have effective laws that prohibit manipulation and for robust enforcement of those laws to further deter market manipulation.

  9. Spillovers among regional and international stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huen, Tan Bee; Arsad, Zainudin; Chun, Ooi Po

    2014-07-01

    Realizing the greater risk by the increase in the level of financial market integration, this study investigates the dynamic of international and regional stock markets co-movement among Asian countries with the world leading market, the US. The data utilized in this study comprises of weekly closing prices for four stock indices, that consists of two developing markets (Malaysia and China) and two developed markets (Japan and the US), and encompasses the period from January 1996 to December 2012. Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model with the BEKK parameterization is employed to investigate the mean and volatility spillover effects among the selected stock indices. The results show significant mean spillover not only from the larger developed markets to smaller developing markets but also from the smaller developing markets to larger developed markets. Volatility spillover between the developed markets is found to be smaller than that between the developing markets. Conditional correlations among the stock markets are found to increase over the sample period. The findings of significant mean and volatility spillovers are considered as bad news for international investors as it reduces the benefit from portfolio diversification but act as useful information for investors to be more aware in diversifying their investment or stock selection.

  10. Democracy, political risks and stock market performance

    OpenAIRE

    Lehkonen, Heikki; Heimonen, Kari

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the impacts of democracy and political risk on stock market. Using annualized panel data for 49 emerging markets for 2000–2012 we find evidence that democracy and political risk do have impact on stock market returns and the relationship between democracy and political risk is parabolic, i.e., there is a threshold level of democracy after which political risk begins to decline. Also our results suggest that decreases in political risk lead to higher returns.

  11. Global stock market in 1990-s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moshenskyi S.Z.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The 1990s became a period of long-term recovery, the main driving force of which was the high-tech companies of the so-called «new economy», mainly associated with information technology and Internet at the global stock market. Such innovations have led to unrealistic expectations of the profitability of new companies from the sale of goods and services on the Internet. This became a prerequisite for a speculative boom in equity markets in developed financial systems. The boom intensified the mass privatization of state-owned enterprises in UK, Germany, France and some other countries. The capitalization of the global stock market increased more than ten times although the world GDP grew only 2.5 times during two decades, from 1980 to 2000. Though the stock market is the source of capital only in the countries with the Anglo-American model of financial markets (for countries of continental Europe and Japan such sources are bank loans, stock markets increased in all countries with developed financial systems. The systematic analysis of such key indicators as market capitalization and liquidity is required for an objective assessment of such rise in stock markets. But statistical information at stock markets is often not systematized and fragmentary. Therefore, the author (based on the official statistics of such international financial organizations as the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Federation of Exchanges has calculated and systematically analyzed capitalization and liquidity as the main indicators of the stock market for the largest countries with developed financial systems (USA, Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan. The paper displays the differences in the mechanisms of attraction of capital determined by the different models of financial markets (decentralized Anglo-American and centralized European as well as the features of the composition of the main investors in the world stock markets.

  12. Recent market behavior of utility stocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studness, C.M.

    1990-01-01

    This article reviews the recent market behavior of utility stocks as compared to the Standard and Poor's 500 and the long-term government bond yield. Utility stock's performance continues to be affected by unfavorable regulation,and it appears that it will continue to be a factor for some time to come. A continually shrinking excess capacity continues to be a concern

  13. A Tale of Two Stock Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Michelle Hine; Piercey, Victor I.; Greene-Hunley, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    This article describes two different projects using the stock market as a context for learning. For both projects, students "bought" shares in individual companies, tracked stock prices for a period of time, and then "sold" their shares at a gain or loss. The projects are adaptable for students in late elementary school through…

  14. Dynamic Stock Market Participation of Households

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers’ decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial...... education programs can affect consumers’ investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market articipation cost is about 5% of labor...... income; however, it varies substantially over consumers’ life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed articipation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers’ life cycle....

  15. Multifractal structures for the Russian stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Taro

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we apply the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) to the Russian stock price returns. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to reveal the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market by financial crises. The contributions of the paper are twofold. (i) Finding the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market. The generalized Hurst exponents estimated become highly-nonlinear to the order of the fluctuation functions. (ii) Computing the multifractality degree according to Zunino et al. (2008). We find that the multifractality degree of the Russian stock market can be categorized within emerging markets, however, the Russian 1998 crisis and the global financial crisis dampen the degree when we consider the order of the polynomial trends in the MFDFA.

  16. Structural Estimation of Stock Market Participation Costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    2013-01-01

    education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor......This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers' decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial...... income; however, it varies substantially over consumers' life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers' life cycle....

  17. Econometric Studies of Stock Market Behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng

    This thesis consists of three sefcontained essays, all centering around the topic of stock market behaviour. The papers focus on the empirical performance of a number of asset pricing models, all attempting to quantify and price asset risk. We look at how well these models actually do in describing...... the historic behaviour of the stock market, allowing us to get further insight into what drives the markes....

  18. Taxation, Transfer Income and Stock Market Participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Marcel; Astrup Jensen, Bjarne

    2015-01-01

    This article studies the impact of a redistributive tax system on consumption, portfolio decisions, and asset prices in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Poorer agents, which receive more in transfers than they pay in taxes, optimally reduce their exposure to equity, because the transfer incom...... they receive is subject to stock market risk. This article thus provides a novel explanation for the low stock market participation rates of poorer investors....

  19. Stock Markets Indices in Artificial Insymmetrization Patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makowiec, D.

    2002-01-01

    The daily data of indices of Warsaw Stock Exchange - WIG, and New York Stock Exchange - NASDAQ, NYSE and S and P 500 for the last two years are being studied. Properties of fluctuations of daily returns found from scaling analysis of tails are confronted with patterns obtained by the artificial insymmetrization method to specify difference between the world-wide American market and local and rather marginal Polish market. (author)

  20. Should Africa Promote Stock Market Capitalism?

    OpenAIRE

    Singh, Ajit

    1998-01-01

    Abstract In a recent paper exploring the relationship between a country's financial system, industrialisation and economic development, I concluded that stock markets are potent symbols of capitalism but paradoxically capitalism flourishes better without them (Singh 1997). It will be argued in this paper that contrary to the international financial institutions (IFIs) who are encouraging and assisting Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries in establishing stock markets, this conclusion is pa...

  1. Do Stock Markets Promote Economic Growth?

    OpenAIRE

    Nauro F. Campos; Jan Hanousek; Randall K. Filer

    1999-01-01

    One of the most enduring debates in economics is whether financial development causes economic growth or whether it is a consequence of increased economic activity. Little research into this question, however, has used a true causality framework. This paper fills this lacuna by using Granger-causality tests and finds little evidence of a causal relationship going from stock market development to economic growth. We do find evidence that stock market development can cause currency appreciation...

  2. The Stock Market Game: A Simulation of Stock Market Trading. Grades 5-8.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draze, Dianne

    This guide to a unit on a simulation game about the stock market contains an instructional text and two separate simulations. Through directed lessons and reproducible worksheets, the unit teaches students about business ownership, stock exchanges, benchmarks, commissions, why prices change, the logistics of buying and selling stocks, and how to…

  3. The effects of Macroeconomics on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange Market

    OpenAIRE

    Baiturganova, Albina

    2010-01-01

    This study is an attempt to empirically find the relationship between the following macro economic variables and the stock market. The variables are: Foreign Exchange Rate (ER), Exchange Reserves (ERES), Discount Rate (DR), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The findings show that the DR is positively related to the stock market, GDP is negatively related to the stock market, Oil is negatively related to the stock market, ER is negatively related to the stock market,...

  4. The Stock Market: Risk vs. Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffitts, Dawn

    2002-01-01

    This economics education publication focuses on the U.S. stock market and the risk and uncertainty that an individual faces when investing in the market. The material explains that risk and uncertainty relate to the same underlying concept randomness. It defines and discusses both concepts and notes that although risk is quantifiable, uncertainty…

  5. TRADING RULES ON A SMALL STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefán B. Gunnlaugsson

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the results of an extensive study of the weak form efficiency of the Iceland stock market are presented. This study almost covers the market’s entire history, with the research starting at the beginning of 1993 and ending in July 2017. Four trading rules based on 70-day moving averages were constructed and compared with the passive investment strategy of buying the market index. All of these trading rules provided significantly better returns than the passive strategy, even when considering trading costs. This result indicates that the Icelandic stock market did not show weak form efficiency, and past returns predicted future returns during the period examined.

  6. Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H Eugene; Preis, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales.

  7. Flight to Safety from European Stock Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte

    This paper investigates flight-to-safety from stocks to bonds in seven European markets. We use quantile regressions to identify flight-to-safety episodes. The simple risk-return trade-off on the stock markets is negative which is caused by flight-to-safety episodes: During normal periods, the risk......-return trade-off is positive and during flight-to-safety episodes it is negative. The effects of flight-to-safety episodes on the risk-return trade-off are qualitatively similar for own country flight-to-safety episodes, for flight from own country stock market to the US bond market, and for US flight...

  8. The Australian stock market development: Prospects and challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Sheilla Nyasha; Nicholas M. Odhiambo

    2013-01-01

    This paper highlights the origin and development of the Australian stock market. The country has three major stock exchanges, namely: the Australian Securities Exchange Group, the National Stock Exchange of Australia, and the Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange. These stock exchanges were born out of a string of stock exchanges that merged over time. Stock-market reforms have been implemented since the period of deregulation, during the 1980s; and the Exchanges responded largely positively to these r...

  9. Collective behavior of stock price movements in an emerging market

    OpenAIRE

    Pan, Raj Kumar; Sinha, Sitabhra

    2007-01-01

    To investigate the universality of the structure of interactions in different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of stock price fluctuations in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. We find that this emerging market exhibits strong correlations in the movement of stock prices compared to developed markets, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This is shown to be due to the dominant influence of a common market mode on the stock prices. By comparison, interactions ...

  10. Mean reversion in the US stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serletis, Apostolos; Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam

    2009-01-01

    This paper revisits the evidence for the weaker form of the efficient market hypothesis, building on recent work by Serletis and Shintani [Serletis A, Shintani M. No evidence of chaos but some evidence of dependence in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2003;17:449-54], Elder and Serletis [Elder J, Serletis A. On fractional integrating dynamics in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2007;34;777-81], Koustas et al. [Koustas Z, Lamarche J.-F, Serletis A. Threshold random walks in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, forthcoming], Hinich and Serletis [Hinich M, Serletis A. Randomly modulated periodicity in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, forthcoming], and Serletis et al. [Serletis A, Uritskaya OY, Uritsky VM. Detrended Fluctuation analysis of the US stock market. Int J Bifurc Chaos, forthcoming]. In doing so, we use daily data, over the period from 5 February 1971 to 1 December 2006 (a total of 9045 observations) on four US stock market indexes - the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the NYSE Composite Index - and a new statistical physics approach - namely the 'detrending moving average (DMA)' technique, recently introduced by Alessio et al. [Alessio E, Carbone A, Castelli G, Frappietro V. Second-order moving average and scaling of stochastic time series. Euro Phys J B 2002;27;197-200.] and further developed by Carbone et al. [Carbone A, Castelli G, Stanley HE. Time dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Physica A 2004;344;267-71, Carbone A, Castelli G, Stanley HE. Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys Rev E 2004;69;026105.]. The robustness of the results to the use of alternative testing methodologies is also investigated, by using Lo's [Lo AW. Long-term memory in stock market prices. Econometrica 1991;59:1279-313.] modified rescaled range analysis. We conclude that US stock

  11. THE STEEL EUROPEAN STOCK MARKET EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica CHIRILA

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Testing the hypothesis of informational efficiency is a permanent preoccupation of researchers because the theories and the models of modern finance are based on it. This paper presents the results obtained after testing the efficiency hypothesis, in the weak form, for the European stock market of the companies that belong to the economic steel sub-sector. Following the use of both linear and non-linear tests of autocorrelation of returns we can conclude that the European stock market in the economic steel sub-sector is inefficient from an informational point of view and the investors in these stocks may obtain better results than those of the European market in general.

  12. Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumöhl, Eduard; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, Štefan; Výrost, Tomáš

    2018-01-01

    In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during the 2006-2014 period, we describe and model volatility spillovers during both the global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several exogenous characteristics. We document the presence of significant temporal proximity effects between markets and somewhat weaker temporal effects with regard to the US equity market - volatility spillovers decrease when markets are characterized by greater temporal proximity. Volatility spillovers also present a high degree of interconnectedness, which is measured by high spatial autocorrelation. This finding is confirmed by spatial regression models showing that indirect effects are much stronger than direct effects; i.e., market-related changes in 'neighboring' markets (within a network) affect volatility spillovers more than changes in the given market alone, suggesting that spatial effects simply cannot be ignored when modeling stock market relationships. Our results also link spillovers of escalating magnitude with increasing market size, market liquidity and economic openness.

  13. Modelling Danish local CHP on market conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Hans V.; Riisom, Jannik; Schaumburg-Müller, Camilla

    2004-01-01

    In Denmark, the development of local combined heat and power (CHP) plants has been characterised by large growth throughout the nineties, based in part on government subsidies in the form of feed-in tariffs. Simultaneously, there has been a significant growth of wind power, particularly...... with the liberalisation process of the energy sectors of the EU countries, it is however anticipated that Danish local CHP are to begin operating on market conditions within the year 2005. This means that the income that the local CHPs previously gained from selling electricity at the feed-in tariff is replaced in part...

  14. An operatorial approach to stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagarello, F

    2006-01-01

    We propose and discuss some toy models of stock markets using the same operatorial approach adopted in quantum mechanics. Our models are suggested by the discrete nature of the number of shares and of the cash which are exchanged in a real market, and by the existence of conserved quantities, like the total number of shares or some linear combination of cash and shares. The same framework as the one used in the description of a gas of interacting bosons is adopted

  15. Participation Constraints in the Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Meisner Nielsen, Kasper

    2011-01-01

    We use a natural experiment to investigate the impact of participation constraints on individuals' decisions to invest in the stock market. Unexpected inheritance due to sudden deaths results in exogenous variation in financial wealth, and allows us to examine whether fixed entry and ongoing...... participation costs cause non-participation. We have three key findings. First, windfall wealth has a positive effect on participation. Second, the majority of households do not react to sizeable windfalls by entering the stock market, but hold on to substantial safe assets—even over longer horizons. Third......, the majority of households inheriting stock holdings actively sell the entire portfolio. Overall, these findings suggest that participation by many individuals is unlikely to be constrained by financial participation costs....

  16. Financial literacy and stock market participation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rooij, Maarten; Lusardi, Annamaria; Alessie, Rob

    We have devised two special modules for De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Household Survey to measure financial literacy and study its relationship to stock market participation. We find that the majority of respondents display basic financial knowledge and have some grasp of concepts such as interest

  17. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND EXCHANGERATES IN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.N. Arshad

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract-This paper aims to study the relationship between stock market returns and exchange rates in emerging stock markets including Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines. The data is taken from January 2003 to December 2012 using weekly closing indices and separated in two periods; before (2003-2007 and second, after (2008-2012 the financial crisis of 2008. Johansen-Juselius (JJ. Granger causality tests show that unidirectional causality exists between the stock market returns and exchange rates for Thailand before the financial crisis, whilst, for Indonesia and Singapore, the unidirectional causality between the two variables is detected in the period after the financial crisis. Error Correction Model (ECM indicates the existence of long run causality between the two variables for Philippines. This study also finds that most of the emerging stock markets are informationally inefficient.

  18. Stock Market Liberalizations and Efficiency: The Case of Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    Vieito, João Paulo; Wong, Wing-Keung; Chow, Sheung Chi

    2016-01-01

    This investigation is among the first to examine the impact of stock market liberalization on the efficiency of Latin American stock markets. It is also among the first to apply the martingale hypothesis test and a stochastic dominance approach to study the issue of efficient markets. Daily stock indices from Latin American countries, including Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, are used in our analysis. To examine the impact of stock market liberalization on effic...

  19. Stock Market Integration in Africa: The Case of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and Selected African Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Gail Ncube; Kapingura Forget Mingiri

    2015-01-01

    African stock markets are deemed to be small, segmented and illiquid. Given this back ground, the study utilises monthly data for the period 2000-2008, employing the Johansen and Julius cointegration method to determine the long-run relationship between the five selected African stock markets. Granger causality tests were also conducted to establish if there are any causal links between the stock markets in Africa. The analysis in the study indicates that African stock markets are improving i...

  20. 26 CFR 1.1296-2 - Definition of marketable stock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... section, a class of stock that is traded on one or more qualified exchanges or other markets, as defined... multiple tiers. If an exchange in a foreign country has more than one tier or market level on which stock... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Definition of marketable stock. 1.1296-2 Section...

  1. Determinants of stock market development in Nigeria using error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Determinants of stock market development in Nigeria using error correction model approach. ... This study sought to examine empirically whether stock market liquidity, savings rate, investment ratio, and foreign direct investment (FDI) were determinants of stock market development in Nigeria from 1970-2007. Using ...

  2. Co-Movements Of U.S. And European Stock Markets Before And After The 2008 Gloal Stock Market Crash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meric Ilhan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Empirical studies show that correlation between national stock markets increased and the benefits of global portfolio diversification decreased significantly after the global stock market crash of 1987. The 1987 and 2008 crashes are the two most important global stock market crashes since the 1929 Great depression. Although the effects of the 1987 crash on the comovements of national stock markets have been investigated extensively, the effects of the 2008 crash have not been studied sufficiently. In this paper we study this issue with a research sample that includes the U.S stock market and twenty European stock markets. We find that correlation between the twenty-one stock markets increased and the benefits of portfolio diversification decreased significantly after the 2008 stock market crash.

  3. Immediate causality network of stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Li; Qiu, Lu; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

    2018-02-01

    Extensive works show that a network of stocks within a single stock market stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system, such as collapses and/or crises. But a financial event covers usually several markets or even the global financial system. This mismatch of scale leads to lack of concise information to coordinate the event. In this work by using the transfer entropy we reconstruct the influential network between ten typical stock markets distributed in the world. Interesting findings include, before a financial crisis the connection strength reaches a maximum, which can act as an early warning signal of financial crises. The markets in America are monodirectionally and strongly influenced by that in Europe and act as the center. Some strongly linked pairs have also close correlations. The findings are helpful in understanding the evolution and modelling the dynamical process of the global financial system. This method can be extended straightly to find early warning signals for physiological and ecological systems, etc.

  4. Using the Stock Market to Teach Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faux, David A.; Hearn, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Students are interested in money. Personal finance is an important issue for most students, especially as they move into university education and take a greater control of their own finances. Many are also interested in stock markets and their ability to allow someone to make, and lose, large sums of money, with their interest fueled by the boom in technology-based stocks of 2000/2001 followed by their subsequent dramatic collapse and the publicizing of so-called "rogue-traders." There is also a much greater ownership of stocks by families following public offerings, stock-based savings products, and the ability to trade stocks online. Consequently, there has been a steady growth of finance and finance-related courses available within degree programs in response to the student demand, with many students motivated by the huge salaries commanded by those with a successful career in the financial sector. We report here details of a joint project between Charterhouse School and the University of Surrey designed to exploit the excitement of finance to teach elements of the high school (age 16-18) curriculum through modeling and simulation.

  5. Taxation, Transfer Income and Stock Market Participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Marcel; Astrup Jensen, Bjarne

    We study a redistributive tax system that taxes income and redistributes tax revenues in such a way that relatively rich agents are net contributors to relatively poor agents. The closed-form solution of our model allows two main conclusions: (i) Despite ongoing transfers, wealth levels are not h......We study a redistributive tax system that taxes income and redistributes tax revenues in such a way that relatively rich agents are net contributors to relatively poor agents. The closed-form solution of our model allows two main conclusions: (i) Despite ongoing transfers, wealth levels...... are not harmonized because poorer agents mainly use their transfer income to finance present consumption. (ii) Since the evolution of the economy determines both the level of tax revenues and the evolution of the stock market, transfer income is subject to stock market risk. Hence, poorer agents optimally reduce...

  6. Terrorism and Tourism : The Stock Market Reaction

    OpenAIRE

    Chua, Hui Gee

    2005-01-01

    The tourism sector has inadvertently been seen as the logical companion of terrorism. With terrorism being associated with negative abnormal returns in the capital markets, the linkage of tourism with terrorism implicates greater negative association. This research examines the validity of the association of four terrorist attacks; the 9/11, Bali Bombing, Marriot hotel bombing, and the 7/7 London Bombings on four respectively selected groups of hotels and hotel managements stocks. The standar...

  7. Price jumps on European stock markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hanousek, Jan; Kočenda, Evžen; Novotný, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 1 (2014), s. 10-22 ISSN 2214-8450 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP403/11/0020; GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Grant - others:UK(CZ) UNCE 204005/2012 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : stock markets * price jump indicators * non-parametric testing Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  8. Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baumöhl, E.; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, S.; Výrost, T.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 490, č. 1 (2018), s. 1555-1574 ISSN 0378-4371 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Volatility spillovers * Shock transmission * Stock markets * Granger causality network * Financial crisis * Spatial regression Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.243, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2018/E/kocenda-0487923. pdf

  9. SURVEY ON SENTIMENT ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET

    OpenAIRE

    Nausheen S; Anil Kumar M; Amrutha K K

    2017-01-01

    Sentiment analysis has seen a tremendous growth in the past few years. Sentiment analysis or opinion mining is a process of collecting users’ opinion from user generated content. It has various applications, such as stock market prediction, products’ review collection, etc. a large amount of work has been done in this field by applying sentiment analysis to various applications. The main goal of this paper is to study the various methods used for sentiment analysis. Further we explain the ove...

  10. Seasonal Trends in Lithuanian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žaneta Simanavičienė

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article is to disentangle different calendar effects which leave efficiency holes in Lithuanian market. This paper presents and tests if commonly described seasonal patterns exist in Lithuanian stock market. Analysis of three different sections: period-of-the-year; week-of-the-month and day-of-the-week, suggests that calendar effects do exist in this market. The multitude of explanations for the seasonal effect leaves the reader confused about its primary cause(s: is it tax-loss selling, window dressing, information, bid-ask bounce, or a combination of these causes? The confusion arises, in part, because evidence has generally been presented in support of a particular hypothesis though the same evidence may be consistent with another hypothesis. Methodology/methods are logical and systemic analysis of research literature based on the comparative and generalization methods as well as statistical methods. Scientific aim of the article is the lack of arguments questioning if market prices operating system is fully effective. Novelty of the paper is to the answer to the question what seasonal anomalies are also present in the stock market of new open economy countries. Findings show that using this modified strategy investor could achieve 20.7% compounded annual growth rate versus 7.8% achieved using simply holding stocks throughout. The hypothesis asserts that returns generally will be greater following the “January effect”. There is limited amount of data for constructing robust seasonal strategies so we modified Buy and Hold strategy with simple rules of using best and worst months to show how they influence OMXV index performance. In the conclusions, empirical results using stock index returns for 2000 - 2010 support the hypothesis in Lithuaian stock market. Abnormal activity of OMXV index’s performance is found in the end of summer and throughout autumn. August is best performer of the year while October is

  11. Simplified stock markets described by number operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagarello, F.

    2009-06-01

    In this paper we continue our systematic analysis of the operatorial approach previously proposed in an economical context and we discuss a mixed toy model of a simplified stock market, i.e. a model in which the price of the shares is given as an input. We deduce the time evolution of the portfolio of the various traders of the market, as well as of other observable quantities. As in a previous paper, we solve the equations of motion by means of a fixed point like approximation.

  12. Renewable energies enter the stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulanger, Vincent

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the new context created by the obligation for renewable energy installations to sell their electricity directly on the market. Thus, new practices and new actors appear like aggregators which belong to three categories: trading departments or subsidiary companies of national operators, trading departments or subsidiary companies of developers and producers of renewable energy, or independent market operators. The author describes the different cases in which renewable electricity producers will need aggregators (the mandatory purchase contract reaches its end, an additional income in the case of bidding or outside this case). The author also describes the role and responsibilities of aggregators, notably with respect to RTE. Such a market operation of course results in the taking of the electricity price on the stock market into account, and in the associated risks for aggregators

  13. Calendar anomalies in the Russian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guglielmo Maria Caporale

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research note investigates whether or not calendar anomalies (such as the January, day-of-the-week and turn-of-the-month effects characterize the Russian stock market, which could be interpreted as evidence against market efficiency. Specifically, OLS, GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH models are estimated using daily data for the MICEX market index over the period Sept. 1997–Apr. 2016. The empirical results show the importance of taking into account transactions costs (proxied by the bid-ask spreads: once these are incorporated into the analysis, calendar anomalies disappear, and therefore, there is no evidence of exploitable profit opportunities based on them that would be inconsistent with market efficiency.

  14. Investor’s Sentiments and Stock Market Volatility: an empirical evidence from emerging stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mobeen Ur Rehman

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The concept of efficient market hypothesis has prevailed the financial markets for a long time which says that the prices of the securities reflect all available information. This approach was mainly followed by the rational investors but with the passage of time, the concept of behavioral finance emerged due to some of the major global financial crashes. This concept states that there are investors trading in the market making decisions on the basis of sentiments not on any fundamental information. Such class of traders is called the noise traders and they are mainly responsible for any disruption in the returns of the securities. In this paper we will try to find whether these sentiments of the investors affect the returns of the securities listed on the Karachi stock exchange. We will use the investor sentiment index that uses the six proxies the data on which has been collected mainly from the Karachi stock exchange. Volatility of the stock market returns will be calculated and regressed with the sentimental equation discussed above as the independent variable. This study will help us to find out the extent to which these sentiments influence the stock market returns in weak form efficient market and also it will help us to identify the presence of such irrational noise traders in our financial market.

  15. The synchronicity between the stock and the stock index via information in market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hai-Ling; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Guo, Wei; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2018-02-01

    The synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index in a market system is investigated. The results show that: (i) the synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index increases with the rising degree of market information capitalized into stock prices in certain range; (ii) the synchronicity decreases for large firm-specific information; (iii) the stock return synchronicity is small compared to the big noise trading, however the variance noise facilitates the synchronization within the tailored realms. These findings may be helpful in understanding the effect of market information on synchronicity, especially for the response of firm-specific information and noise trading to synchronicity.

  16. Global stock market linkages reduce potential for diversification

    OpenAIRE

    Karen K. Lewis

    2012-01-01

    Recent European government debt difficulties demonstrate how linked stock markets have become. Problems in countries such as Greece and Italy have depressed stock markets not only on the continent but also in the United States. Such comovement across international financial markets highlights U.S. equity markets’ exposure to foreign markets.

  17. The Index cohesive effect on stock market correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Y.; Kenett, D. Y.; Ben-Jacob, E.

    2009-12-01

    We present empirical examination and reassessment of the functional role of the market Index, using datasets of stock returns for eight years, by analyzing and comparing the results for two very different markets: 1) the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), representing a large, mature market, and 2) the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE), representing a small, young market. Our method includes special collective (holographic) analysis of stock-Index correlations, of nested stock correlations (including the Index as an additional ghost stock) and of bare stock correlations (after subtraction of the Index return from the stocks returns). Our findings verify and strongly substantiate the assumed functional role of the index in the financial system as a cohesive force between stocks, i.e., the correlations between stocks are largely due to the strong correlation between each stock and the Index (the adhesive effect), rather than inter-stock dependencies. The Index adhesive and cohesive effects on the market correlations in the two markets are presented and compared in a reduced 3-D principal component space of the correlation matrices (holographic presentation). The results provide new insights into the interplay between an index and its constituent stocks in TASE-like versus NYSE-like markets.

  18. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  19. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  20. Systematic analysis of group identification in stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dong-Hee; Jeong, Hawoong

    2005-10-01

    We propose improved methods to identify stock groups using the correlation matrix of stock price changes. By filtering out the market-wide effect and the random noise, we construct the correlation matrix of stock groups in which nontrivial high correlations between stocks are found. Using the filtered correlation matrix, we successfully identify the multiple stock groups without any extra knowledge of the stocks by the optimization of the matrix representation and the percolation approach to the correlation-based network of stocks. These methods drastically reduce the ambiguities while finding stock groups using the eigenvectors of the correlation matrix.

  1. Stock Market Optimism and Cointegration among Stocks: The Case of the Prague Stock Exchange

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baxa, Jaromír

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 4 (2007), s. 5-16 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/03/H057 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : stock market * optimism * cointegration Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  2. Stock market prediction using technical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradić-Martinović Aleksandra

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Technical analysis (TA is a form of analyzing market encompassing supply and demand of securities according to the study of their prices and trading volume. Using the appropriate methods, TA aims to identify price movements in the stock market, futures or currencies. In short, TA analysis is the process by which "future price movements are formulated according to the price history". TA originates from the work of Charles Dow and his conclusions about the global behavior of the market, as well as from Elliot Wave Theory. Dow did not regard its theory as a tool for stock market movement prediction, nor as a guide for investors, but as a kind of barometer of general market movements. The term TA methods encompasses all the methods used in tracking prices aiming to clearly predict future events. Many different methods, mainly statistical, are used in technical analysis, the most popular ones being: establishing and following trends using moving average, recognizing price momentum, calculating indicators and oscillators, as well as cycle analysis (structure indicators. It is also necessary to point out that TA is not a science in the true meaning of the term, and that methods it uses frequently deviate from the conventional manner of their use. The main advantage of these methods is their relative ease of use, aiming to give as clear picture as possible of price movements, while at the same time avoiding the use of complicated and complex mathematical methods. The reason for this is simple and is reflected in the dynamics of financial markets, where changes occur during short periods of time and where prompt decision-making is of vital importance.

  3. The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Finter, Philipp; Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra; Ruenzi, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a broad-based sentiment indicator for Germany and investigates whether investor sentiment can explain stock returns on the German stock market. Based on a principal component analysis, we construct a sentiment indicator that condenses information of several well-known sentiment proxies. We show that this indicator explains the return spread between sentiment sensitive stocks and stocks that are not sensitive to sentiment fluctuations. Specifically, stocks that are difficul...

  4. Time varying market efficiency of the GCC stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charfeddine, Lanouar; Khediri, Karim Ben

    2016-02-01

    This paper investigates the time-varying levels of weak-form market efficiency for the GCC stock markets over the period spanning from May 2005 to September 2013. We use two empirical approaches: (1) the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) model with state space time varying parameter (Kalman filter), and (2) a rolling technique sample test of the fractional long memory parameter d. As long memory estimation methods, we use the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) technique, the modified R/S statistic, the exact local whittle (ELW) and the feasible Exact Local Whittle (FELW) methods. Moreover, we use the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) multiple structural breaks technique to test and date the time varying behavior of stock market efficiency. Empirical results show that GCC markets have different degrees of time-varying efficiency, and also have experiencing periods of efficiency improvement. Results also show evidence of structural breaks in all GCC markets. Moreover, we observe that the recent financial shocks such as Arab spring and subprime crises have a significant impact on the time path evolution of market efficiency.

  5. The Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    growth of Nigeria using a 15-year time series data from 1994-2008. The method of analysis used is Ordinary Least Square (OLS) techniques. The study measures the relationship between stock market development indices and economic growth. The stock market capitalization ratio was used as a proxy for market size while ...

  6. Power law and multiscaling properties of the Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Man-Ying; Zhu, Hai-Bo

    2010-05-01

    We investigate the cumulative probability density function (PDF) and the multiscaling properties of the returns in the Chinese stock market. By using returns data adjusted for thin trading, we find that the distribution has power-law tails at shorter microscopic timescales or lags. However, the distribution follows an exponential law for longer timescales. Furthermore, we investigate the long-range correlation and multifractality of the returns in the Chinese stock market by the DFA and MFDFA methods. We find that all the scaling exponents are between 0.5 and 1 by DFA method, which exhibits the long-range power-law correlations in the Chinese stock market. Moreover, we find, by MFDFA method, that the generalized Hurst exponents h(q) are not constants, which shows the multifractality in the Chinese stock market. We also find that the correlation of Shenzhen stock market is stronger than that of Shanghai stock market.

  7. Stocks and energy shocks : the impact of energy accidents on stock market value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, B.; Boersen, A.

    We investigate how financial market participants value energy accidents. We employ an event study to look into the response of stock markets to 209 accidents. These accidents were derived from Sovacool's (2008) database on major energy accidents from 1907 to 2007. It appears that the stock market in

  8. MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF TURKISH AND ROMANIAN STOCK MARKETS TO EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismet ATES

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Since the process of globalization accelerates all over the world, trade and economic relations among countries become very intensive and the stock markets in these countries started to integrate to each other quickly. As a result of this, world wide stoc

  9. Asymmetry Effects of shocks in Chinese Stock Markets Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hou, Ai Jun

    2013-01-01

    The unique characteristics of the Chinese stock markets make it difficult to assume a particular distribution for innovations in returns and the specification form of the volatility process when modelling return volatility with the parametric GARCH family models. This paper therefore applies...... a generalized additive nonparametric smoothing technique to examine the volatility of the Chinese stock markets. The empirical results indicate that an asymmetric effect of negative news exists in the Chinese stock markets. Furthermore, compared with other parametric models, the generalized additive...

  10. Market Performance and Accounting Information as the Reference of Stocks Portfolio Formation in Indonesia Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Pasaribu, Rowland Bismark Fernando

    2009-01-01

    This study aimed to a stock portfolio formed with composite of companies market (PER, PBV, ROE, EPS, PSR, and B/M, VaR) and accounting performance (ROE, and EPS) also their market capitalization in Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2003-2006. Some clarification need to achieved, such as: real difference among variabel refer to their market capitalization and influence of predictor to stock return. Hereinafter, the performance of selected portfolio were evaluated. The evaluation result conclude ...

  11. Macedonian Small Investors’ Behavior Towards Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelovska Julijana

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Convenience sample survey was fielded to the Macedonian individual stock market investors to find out whether their investment behavior can be explained by some underlying factors grounded in the behavioral approach to the study of financial markets. Descriptive statistics technique has been used to analyze the investors’ attitude about the market’s efficiency and to test different theories of behavioral finance. The results have indicated that investors are not completely rational individuals as supposed by theories of traditional finance. Also in the theoretical framework of behavioral finance Macedonian investors use heuristics, or rules of thumb, when judging information and forming beliefs, but Macedonian investors do not behave as suggested within prospect theory and regret aversion.

  12. An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity

    OpenAIRE

    Chordia, Tarun; Sarkar, Asani; Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar

    2003-01-01

    This paper explores liquidity movements in stock and Treasury bond markets over a period of more than 1800 trading days. Cross-market dynamics in liquidity are documented by estimating a vector autoregressive model for liquidity (that is, bid-ask spreads and depth), returns, volatility, and order flow in the stock and bond markets. We find that a shock to quoted spreads in one market affects the spreads in both markets, and that return volatility is an important driver of liquidity. Innovatio...

  13. Quantum Brownian motion model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Guo, Hong

    2016-06-01

    It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysical framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single stocks into a reservoir consisting of many quantum harmonic oscillators and their stock index into a typical quantum open system-a quantum Brownian particle. In particular, the irrationality of stock transactions is quantitatively considered as the Planck constant within Heisenberg's uncertainty relationship of quantum mechanics in an analogous manner. We analyze real stock data of Shanghai Stock Exchange of China and investigate fat-tail phenomena and non-Markovian behaviors of the stock index with the assistance of the quantum Brownian motion model, thereby interpreting and studying the limitations of the classical Brownian motion model for the efficient market hypothesis from a new perspective of quantum open system dynamics.

  14. Intraday Lead-Lag Relationship between Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets: Evidence from Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Ersoy, Ersan; Çıtak, Levent

    2015-01-01

    In perfectly frictionless and rational markets, spot markets and futures markets should simultaneously reflect new information. However, due to market imperfections, one of these markets may reflect information faster than the other and therefore may lead to the other. This study examines the lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures, in terms of both price and volatility, by using 5 minute data over 2007-2010 period. The findings of this study indicate that a stable l...

  15. Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between the Chinese stock market and surrounding stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Feng; Wei, Yu; Huang, Dengshi

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, we investigate the cross-correlations between the stock market in China and markets in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong. We use not only the qualitative analysis of the cross-correlation test, but also the quantitative analysis of the MF-X-DFA. Our findings confirm the existence of cross-correlations between the stock market in China and markets in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, which have strongly multifractal features. We find that the cross-correlations display the characteristic of multifractality in the short term. Moreover, the cross-correlations of small fluctuations are persistent and those of large fluctuations are anti-persistent in the short term, while the cross-correlations of all kinds of fluctuations are persistent in the long term. Furthermore, based on the multifractal spectrum, we also find that the multifractality of cross-correlation between stock markets in China and Japan are stronger than those between China and South Korea, as well as between China and Hong Kong.

  16. The Australian stock market development: Prospects and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheilla Nyasha

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the origin and development of the Australian stock market. The country has three major stock exchanges, namely: the Australian Securities Exchange Group, the National Stock Exchange of Australia, and the Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange. These stock exchanges were born out of a string of stock exchanges that merged over time. Stock-market reforms have been implemented since the period of deregulation, during the 1980s; and the Exchanges responded largely positively to these reforms. As a result of the reforms, the Australian stock market has developed in terms of the number of listed companies, the market capitalisation, the total value of stocks traded, and the turnover ratio. Although the stock market in Australia has developed remarkably over the years, and was spared by the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, it still faces some challenges. These include the increased economic uncertainty overseas, the downtrend in global financial markets, and the restrained consumer confidence in Australia.

  17. Oil and stock market volatility: A multivariate stochastic volatility perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, Minh

    2011-01-01

    This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction. It offers four major findings. First, the stock and oil futures prices are inter-related. Their correlation follows a time-varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. Second, conditioned on the past information, the volatility in each market is very persistent, i.e., it varies in a predictable manner. Third, there is inter-market dependence in volatility. Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. In other words, conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets, the past volatility of the stock (oil futures) market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures (stock) market. Finally, the model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry. - Research Highlights: → This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility model. → The correlation between the two markets follows a time-varying dynamic process which tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. → The volatility in each market is very persistent. → Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. → The model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry.

  18. The Efficiency Of Ukraine’s Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adilya Batroshyna

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of the efficiency of Ukraine’s stock market based on the efficient market hypothesis (EMH which assumes that the price of a financial instrument completely reflects all the information about a given asset. Depending on the variety of information, weak, semi-strong and strong forms of market efficiency are applied The testing of market efficiency is based on verifying the hypothesis against actual statistical data. The study uses four statistical methods. The values of the stock index are used as source data, since the index can be interpreted as a hypothetical security (share, the price of which fluctuates all the time. This article demonstrates that Ukraine’s stock market on the whole is a weak form of market efficiency. It explains the specific strategies for a market with a weak form of efficiency and offers recommendations on the continued development of Ukraine’s stock market.

  19. Statistics of extreme events in Chinese stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Gan-Hua; Qiu Lu; Li Xin-Li; Yang Yue; Yang Hui-Jie; Jiang Yan; Stephen Mutua

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the impact of financial factors on daily volume recurrent time intervals in the developing Chinese stock markets. The tails of probability distribution functions (PDFs) of volume recurrent intervals behave as a power-law, and the scaling exponent decreases with the increase of stock lifetime, which are similar to those in the US stock markets, and they are typical representatives of developed markets. The difference is that the power-law exponent values remain almost the same with the changes of market capitalization, mean volume, and mean trading value, respectively. These findings enrich the results for event statistics for financial markets. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  20. —The Stock Market's Pricing of Customer Satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher Ittner; David Larcker; Daniel Taylor

    2009-01-01

    A number of recent marketing studies examine the stock market's response to the release of American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) scores. The broad purpose of these studies is to investigate the stock market's valuation of customer satisfaction. However, a key focus is on whether customer satisfaction information predicts long-run returns. We provide evidence on the market's pricing of ACSI information using a more comprehensive set of well-established tests from the accounting and finan...

  1. Developing an integrated conceptual framework of stock market behaviour.

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the research is to develop an integrated conceptual framework of stock market behaviour seen from a biblical perspective. The stock market is part of the financial markets, which are part of the created social reality. From a biblical perspective, man is accountable to God for the decisions which create the social reality of the financial markets. Developing a biblical perspective of the created social reality requires a biblical worldview as a presupposition before analysing t...

  2. The reaction of stock market returns to anticipated unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Taamouti, Abderrahim; Gonzalo Muñoz, Jesús

    2012-01-01

    We empirically investigate the short-run impact of anticipated and unanticipated unemployment rates on stock prices. We particularly examine the nonlinearity in stock market's reaction to unemployment rate and study the effect at each individual point (quantile) of stock return distribution. Using nonparametric Granger causality and quantile regression based tests, we find that, contrary to the general findings in the literature, only anticipated unemployment rate has a strong impact on stock...

  3. Why African Stock Markets Should Formally Harmonise and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Despite experiencing rapid growth in their number and size, existing evidence suggests that African stock markets remain highly fragmented, small, illiquid and technologically weak, severely affecting their informational efficiency. Therefore, this study attempts to empirically ascertain whether African stock markets can ...

  4. Parameter ranking of stock market dynamics: a comparative study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we study a parameter ranking of stock market dynamics for two types of complex interactions in the context of stock markets over a trading period using a Lotka-Volterra system of non-linear first order ordinary differential equations. We started this study by describing the model under consideration and pointing ...

  5. Stock Market Reactions to Fiscal Policy Shocks: Empirical Evidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study sets out to investigate the effect of fiscal policy on stock market performance in Nigeria. Specifically, the study examines if shocks in government expenditure and government debt affects stock market performance. The period of the study is from 1981-2012. Following the VAR estimates, the variance ...

  6. Impact of stock market performance on the level of economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impact of stock market performance on the level of economic activities: evidence from Nigerian stock market. James Ofuan Ilaboya, Shaibu Ibrahim. Abstract. No Abstract. Nigeria Journal of Business Administration Vol. 6(1) 2004: 53-82. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ...

  7. Has the stock market crash reduced consumer spending?

    OpenAIRE

    C. Alan Garner

    1988-01-01

    Some forecasters expected that the October 1987 stock market collapse would seriously lower GNP growth by curtailing consumer spending. After declining in October, however, consumer spending has grown moderately. This relatively small effect is consistent with empirical studies showing that the stock market has only a modest impact on consumer spending.

  8. Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Nigerian Stock Market | Onuoha ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on our findings, we recommended that mergers and acquisition should be encouraged so as to increase the capital base of stock market participants. ... This is to motivate them participate in the stock exchange market; and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and other ...

  9. Do economic policy decisions affect stock market development in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper finds government revenue and exchange rate reduce stock market development. A policy mix identified was that, the outcomes of government expenditure and government borrowing interest rate exert no influence on stock market development. For equity investors not to easily transfer their investments in ...

  10. determinants of stock market development in nigeria using error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    empirically other determinants of stock market development in Nigeria. The specific objectives include to estimate the short-run and long-run effects of stock market liquidity (equity/GDP), investment ratio (i.e. gross fixed capital formation over GDP ratio), national savings rate (i.e. domestic savings over GDP ratio) and foreign.

  11. Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, World-Wide

    OpenAIRE

    Francis X. Diebold; Kamil Yilmaz

    2008-01-01

    Notwithstanding its impressive contributions to empirical financial economics, there remains a significant gap in the volatility literature, namely its relative neglect of the connection between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset return volatility. We progress by analyzing a broad international cross section of stock markets covering approximately forty countries. We find a clear link between macroeconomic fundamentals and stock market volatilities, with volatile fundamentals translating in...

  12. Trend of Legal Globalisation and Stock Market Development

    OpenAIRE

    Sarkar, Prabirjit

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze some leximetric data for a number of developed and less developed countries hitherto unavailable to examine (i) the changing state of shareholder protection and (ii) its connection with stock market development and capital accumulation. It finds a strong evidence of legal globalisation but no evidence of its favourable link with stock market development and capital formation.

  13. An intense Nigerian stock exchange market prediction using logistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is a continuation of our research work on the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market (NSEM) uncertainties, In our previous work (Magaji et al, 2013) we presented the Naive Bayes and SVM-SMO algorithms as a tools for predicting the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market; subsequently we used the same transformed data ...

  14. The Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumer Behaviour in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The stock market is a common feature of a modern economy as it promotes the growth and development of the economy. This paper examines the likely influence of recent stock market fluctuations on consumer behavior and the economy, focusing on wealth effects and consumption. After reviewing the relevant theoretical ...

  15. Persistent collective trend in stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balogh, Emeric; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zs; Néda, Zoltán

    2010-12-01

    Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and averaged over stock pairs and time. The results indicate a general trend: whenever the stock index is falling the stock prices are changing in a more correlated manner than in case the stock index is ascending. A thorough statistical analysis of the data shows that the observed difference is significant, suggesting a constant fear factor among stockholders.

  16. Robot traders can prevent extreme events in complex stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhadolnik, Nicolas; Galimberti, Jaqueson; Da Silva, Sergio

    2010-11-01

    If stock markets are complex, monetary policy and even financial regulation may be useless to prevent bubbles and crashes. Here, we suggest the use of robot traders as an anti-bubble decoy. To make our case, we put forward a new stochastic cellular automata model that generates an emergent stock price dynamics as a result of the interaction between traders. After introducing socially integrated robot traders, the stock price dynamics can be controlled, so as to make the market more Gaussian.

  17. Exploring Market State and Stock Interactions on the Minute Timescale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Tan

    Full Text Available A stock market is a non-stationary complex system. The stock interactions are important for understanding the state of the market. However, our knowledge on the stock interactions on the minute timescale is limited. Here we apply the random matrix theory and methods in complex networks to study the stock interactions and sector interactions. Further, we construct a new kind of cross-correlation matrix to investigate the correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes within one trading day. Based on 50 million minute-to-minute price data in the Shanghai stock market, we discover that the market states in the morning and afternoon are significantly different. The differences mainly exist in three aspects, i.e. the co-movement of stock prices, interactions of sectors and correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes. In the afternoon, the component stocks of sectors are more robust and the structure of sectors is firmer. Therefore, the market state in the afternoon is more stable. Furthermore, we reveal that the information of the sector interactions can indicate the financial crisis in the market, and the indicator based on the empirical data in the afternoon is more effective.

  18. Exploring Market State and Stock Interactions on the Minute Timescale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Lei; Chen, Jun-Jie; Zheng, Bo; Ouyang, Fang-Yan

    2016-01-01

    A stock market is a non-stationary complex system. The stock interactions are important for understanding the state of the market. However, our knowledge on the stock interactions on the minute timescale is limited. Here we apply the random matrix theory and methods in complex networks to study the stock interactions and sector interactions. Further, we construct a new kind of cross-correlation matrix to investigate the correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes within one trading day. Based on 50 million minute-to-minute price data in the Shanghai stock market, we discover that the market states in the morning and afternoon are significantly different. The differences mainly exist in three aspects, i.e. the co-movement of stock prices, interactions of sectors and correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes. In the afternoon, the component stocks of sectors are more robust and the structure of sectors is firmer. Therefore, the market state in the afternoon is more stable. Furthermore, we reveal that the information of the sector interactions can indicate the financial crisis in the market, and the indicator based on the empirical data in the afternoon is more effective.

  19. Stock market in Ukraine: state and prospects of development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasnova Iryna V.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to analysis of the topical problem of detection of specific features of functioning and problem of development of the stock market of Ukraine and also justification of directions of increase of its liquidity and efficiency. It analyses main tendencies and regularities of development of the stock market in the context of institutional, instrumental and infrastructural components. It considers issues of changes of volumes of trade and other parameters of activity of stock exchanges during recent years. It focuses on existing problems on the way of development of the stock market of Ukraine, which interfere with its efficient functioning, in particular, a limited number of liquid and investment attractive financial instruments, high fragmentariness of the exchange and depositary infrastructure, and insufficient legislative regulation of the exchange activity. For solution of problem issues and stimulation of further development of the domestic stock market the article marks expediency of consolidation of stock exchanges, necessity to increase capitalisation, liquidity and transparency of the stock market; further formation and consolidation of the market infrastructure and ensuring its reliable and efficient functioning, and improvement of mechanisms of state regulation, supervision and protection of the rights of investors in the Ukrainian stock market.

  20. Stock market modeling and forecasting a system adaptation approach

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng, Xiaolian

    2013-01-01

    Stock Market Modeling translates experience in system adaptation gained in an engineering context to the modeling of financial markets with a view to improving the capture and understanding of market dynamics. The modeling process is considered as identifying a dynamic system in which a real stock market is treated as an unknown plant and the identification model proposed is tuned by feedback of the matching error. Like a physical system, a stock market exhibits fast and slow dynamics corresponding to internal (such as company value and profitability) and external forces (such as investor sentiment and commodity prices) respectively. The framework presented here, consisting of an internal model and an adaptive filter, is successful at considering both fast and slow market dynamics. A double selection method is efficacious in identifying input factors influential in market movements, revealing them to be both frequency- and market-dependent.   The authors present work on both developed and developing markets ...

  1. Extreme negative coexceedances in South Eastern European stock markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tevdovski, Dragan

    The aim of this paper is to analyze the financial integration of the South Eastern Europe (SEE) stock markets. We use a multinomial logistic regression to analyze how persistence, asset class and volatility effects are related with negative coexceedances in SEE markets. We find evidence in favor...... of the continuation hypothesis in SEE stock markets. However, the factors associated with the coexceedances differ between the EU member countries from SEE and EU accession countries from SEE stock markets.The EU member countries are more dependent from the signals from major EU economies, while the accession...

  2. ECONOMIC AND ACCOUNTING INFORMATION AND STOCK MARKET EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona – Florina SĂLIȘTEANU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explore and to analyse the relations between financial accounting information and stock market efficiency. As we know, accounting contributes to the efficiency of the stock market by producing primordial information for the investors. On the other side, an efficient market facilitates the role of accounting by providing a reliable estimate of the value of many assets that needs to be evaluated. This article examines the importance of the financial accounting information for the efficiency of stock market, and also analyses whether and how the structure, the characteristics and publication of the information, impacts the prices and transactions volumes.

  3. Bank Lending, Inflation, and China's Stock Market (2004–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard C. K. Burdekin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The 2009 surge in bank lending in China was accompanied by allegations of substantial funds being funneled into the nation's stock and property markets. This paper uses 2004–2010 People's Bank survey data to examine the possible linkages between banking activity and the stock market as well as the associated inflation risks. In general, stock market strength in China seems to be accompanied by rising inflationary concerns, increased bank lending activity, and reduced banker confidence that stable conditions will be maintained. This suggests that the Shanghai market could serve as a useful indicator variable for Chinese monetary policy.

  4. Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2014-01-01

    Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

  5. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Stock Market of the Czech Republic and Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Titizov, Toško

    2013-01-01

    The paper analyzes effects of the financial crisis on stock market of the Czech Republic and Spain. We employ BEKK-GARCH model in order to study volatility spillovers and transmissions from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The multivariate GARCH models results show statistically significant, but relatively small, almost irrelevant volatility spillovers from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The Czech stock market exhibit...

  6. Development of Danish Wind Power Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Niels I

    2007-01-01

    The modern phase of Danish wind power started after the oil crisis in 1973. During the eighties technological development resulted in increased cost efficiency. In the early nineties favourable feed-in tariffs were introduced together with easy access to the grid. As a result wind power was booming...

  7. Classifying Returns as Extreme: European Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    whereby a shorter sample period is needed. For the bond markets the simultaneous extreme return variable (used for analyzing integration and contagion of financial markets) is not statistically different for the two schemes. For the stock markets there are differences, but they are disappearing......I consider the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries. I use two classification schemes for defining extreme returns: One, the existing univariate classification scheme which considers each market separately. Two, the new multivariate classification scheme that considers all the markets jointly...

  8. Market Skewness Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Young Chang, Bo; Christoffersen, Peter F.; Jacobs, Kris

    2013-01-01

    The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high...... exposure to innovations in implied market skewness exhibit low returns on average. The results are robust to various permutations of the empirical setup. The market skewness risk premium is statistically and economically significant and cannot be explained by other common risk factors such as the market...... excess return or the size, book-to-market, momentum, and market volatility factors, or by firm characteristics....

  9. Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

    2016-06-01

    Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

  10. Economic Forces, Sentiment and Emerging Eastern European Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Dmitrij Celov; Žana Grigaliuniene

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the current study is to explore the effect of macroeconomic news on stock returns in Eastern European countries, combining market and macroeconomic data over the period of 2000-2009, during which the markets experienced excessive optimistic and pessimistic episodes. Hypothesising the asymmetry in stock price responses to good and bad news, we seek to test its degree under the specific market conditions. The error correction models for each country are extended with fixed effects pa...

  11. Design Study to Visualize Stock Market Bubble Formations and Bursts

    OpenAIRE

    Iyer, Sruthi Ganesan

    2014-01-01

    The stock market is a very complex and continuously changing environment in which many varying factors shape its growth and decline. Studying interesting trends and analyzing the intricate movements of the market, while ignoring distracting and uninteresting patterns has the potential to save large amounts of money for individuals as well as corporations and governments. This thesis describes research that was conducted with the goal to visualize stock market data in such a way that it is abl...

  12. How to Measure Illiquidity on European Emerging Stock Markets?

    OpenAIRE

    Vidović, Jelena; Poklepović, Tea; Aljinović, Zdravka

    2014-01-01

    Background: Liquidity is, in practice of portfolio investment, an important attribute of stocks and measuring illiquidity presents a real challenge for researchers, primarily on developed stock markets. Moreover, there is a lack of research dealing with (il)liquidity on emerging markets. In the paper, the problem of applicability and validity of two well-known illiquidity measures, ILLIQ and TURN, on European emerging markets is observed. Objectives: The paper has two main purposes. The first...

  13. Value Investing in the Stock Market of Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo “Gerry” Alfonso Perez

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Value investment and growth investment have attracted a large amount of research in recent decades, but most of this research focuses on the U.S. and Europe. This article covers the Thai stock market which has very different characteristics compared to western markets and even South East Asian countries such as Indonesia or Malaysia. Among South East Asian countries, Thailand has one of the most dynamic capital markets. In order to see if some well-known trends in other markets exist in Thailand the performance of value and growth stocks in the Thai market were analyzed for a period of 17 years using existing style indexes (MSCI as well as creating portfolios using individual stocks. For this entire period, when using the indexes, returns are statistically significant superior for value stocks compared to growth stocks. However, when analyzing the performance of the market in any given calendar year from 1999 to 2016, the results are much more mixed with in fact growth stocks outperforming in several of those years. Interestingly, when building portfolios using criteria such as low P/E or low P/B the results are not statistically different. Suggesting perhaps that the classification into value or growth stocks is more complex than it would appear. One of the common assumptions of value investing is that those stocks outperform over long periods of time. It might well be that in the Thai case one year is not a long enough period for value stocks to outperform. While there have been some clear efforts over recent years to modernize the stock market of Thailand, it remains relatively underdeveloped, particularly when compared to markets such as the U.S. Hence, its behavior regarding value versus growth investment might be rather different.

  14. Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2014-01-01

    Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

  15. Corruption and stock market development: A quantitative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam

    2011-11-01

    Studying the relation between corruption and economic factors and examining its consequences for economic development have attracted many economists and physicists in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the role of stock market development on corruption. Analyzing a data set of corruption and stock market development measures such as market capitalization and total value of share trading for 46 countries around the world for the period 2007-2009, we examine the dependence of the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) on stock market development. Our findings suggest that there exists a power-law dependence between corruption and stock market development. We also observe a negative relation between level of corruption and financial system improvement.

  16. Corruption and Stock Market Development: New Evidence from GCC Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moaz Alsherfawi Aljazaerli

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The theoretical relationship between corruption and stock market development has been debated quite extensively in the literature, yet the evidence on the impact of corruption on stock market development remains contradictory and ambiguous. This paper investigates the impact of corruption, as measured by Corruption Perception Index (CPI published by Transparency International, on stock market development focusing exclusively on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC countries with its special characteristics of combining richness with relatively high level of corruption. Results from an estimation of alternative regression models on a panel of six GCC countries over the period 2003–2011, through which CPI is legitimately comparable, confirms a positive impact of corruption on stock market development, where the latter is measured by market capitalization. This is consistent with the view that corruption greases the wheels of economy by expediting transactions and allowing private firms to overcome governmentally imposed inefficiencies.

  17. Multiscale Shannon entropy and its application in the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Rongbao

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we perform a multiscale entropy analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index using the Shannon entropy. The stock index shows the characteristic of multi-scale entropy that caused by noise in the market. The entropy is demonstrated to have significant predictive ability for the stock index in both long-term and short-term, and empirical results verify that noise does exist in the market and can affect stock price. It has important implications on market participants such as noise traders.

  18. 17 CFR 240.15g-2 - Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market. 240.15g-2 Section 240.15g-2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges... Section 15(d) of the Act § 240.15g-2 Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market...

  19. Regulation of Danish energy markets with imperfect competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goertz, M.; Hansen, J.V.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we use a new CGE model of the Danish economy with the acronym ECOSMEC (Economic COuncil Simulation Model with Energy markets and Carbon taxation). The model is a hybrid of two existing static models developed by respectively the Secretariat of the Danish Economic Council and by the MobiDK project in the Ministry of Business and Industry. Distinct features of the ECOSMEC model are a rather disaggregated modelling of energy demand and supply, introduction of various market structures in the energy sector, and a consistent specification of different household types. The simulations presented in the paper have the following implications: First, a uniform CO 2 tax of approximately 300 DKK per ton CO 2 could reduce emissions by 20 per cent in a scenario with perfect competition in the energy sector. However, assuming different market structures in the energy sector influences the uniform CO 2 tax needed to reach a given emission target. In the paper we assume that the Danish energy sector is a natural monopoly regulated to comply with average cost pricing, but we also discuss alternative descriptions of imperfect competition. Second, the empirical arguments for differentiated CO 2 taxes motivated by imperfect energy markets are weak. This is in line with earlier international studies on environmental taxes and imperfect competition. Third, the Danish economy could benefit from a deregulation of the electricity and district heating sector with respect to welfare and economic activity. This result holds also if CO 2 emissions are kept constant. (au)

  20. The Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Research Review ... Abstract. This study investigated the role of stock market development on economic growth of Nigeria using a 15-year time series data from 1994 - 2008. ... This result implies that liquidity has propensity to spur economic growth in Nigeria and that market capitalization influences market liquidity.

  1. Stock Market Capitalisation and Interest Rate in Nigeria: A Time ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obviously for the Nigerian capital market to enhance economic growth and development and compare favourably with those of developed market economies, investors will need to be abreast with the happenings and great benefits of the stock market. In this case a lot depends on considerable control of the interest rate, the ...

  2. RE-EXAMINING STOCK MARKET INTEGRATION AMONG BRICS COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berzanna Seydou Ouattara

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to contribute to the international investment decision making process among the BRICS countries and to the development or changes of policies in response to the dynamics in these countries. The background is important for international investors seeking diversification benefits abroad and for policy makers reacting to the developments in the aforementioned economies. Thus, the context of this paper is directed to the examination of the stock market interaction among the BRICS countries. The objective of this research paper is to analyze the existence of the short-term linkages and long-term cointegration among the BRICS markets. Augmented Dicker-Fuller (ADF and Philips-Perron tests (PP are used to analyze stationarity among the selected variables. The research applies the correlation test on the stock markets returns to investigate the degree of freedom existing among the markets. The long run and the short run are also investigated using Johansen cointegration test while the Pairwise Granger Causality and the Wald tests are applied to assess the direction of the causality between the stock market indices. The study also extends the investigation by employing the impulse response function and variance decomposition to evaluate the reaction of each stock to a shock from other stock indices. The quarterly data consisted of fifteen years from 2000 to 2015 and are exclusively composed of stock market index of selected countries. One of the key findings of the research is that the Chinese stock markets are mostly independent from other BRICS markets, implying diversification benefits for the international investors both in the short and the long run. Another important finding is that the BRICS stock markets are not cointegrated in the long run, thus, being a favorable destination for the long-term investments.

  3. Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Nigerian Stock Market

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DrNneka

    participate in the stock exchange market; and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN),. Securities and Exchange ... should use the financial stress index (FSI) as proposed by IIIing and Liu (2006) to indicate early signals of ..... testing the first hypothesis which states that currency crisis has no significant effect on the Nigerian stock ...

  4. Determinacy, Stock Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy Inertia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

    This note deals with the stability properties of an economy where the central bank is concerned with stock market developments. We introduce a Taylor rule reacting to stock price growth rates along with inflation and output gap in a New-Keynesian setup. We explore the performance of this rule from...

  5. Essays on investing in stock and bond markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Ivo

    2017-01-01

    This Ph.D. thesis consists of three chapters about investing in stock and bond markets. The first chapter studies the financial market’s response to economic news as function of the economic environment by attributing the daily stock returns to its main drivers. The second chapter studies the cross

  6. Network structure detection and analysis of Shanghai stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sen Wu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In order to investigate community structure of the component stocks of SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange 180-index, a stock correlation network is built to find the intra-community and inter-community relationship. Design/methodology/approach: The stock correlation network is built taking the vertices as stocks and edges as correlation coefficients of logarithm returns of stock price. It is built as undirected weighted at first. GN algorithm is selected to detect community structure after transferring the network into un-weighted with different thresholds. Findings: The result of the network community structure analysis shows that the stock market has obvious industrial characteristics. Most of the stocks in the same industry or in the same supply chain are assigned to the same community. The correlation of the internal stock prices’ fluctuation is closer than in different communities. The result of community structure detection also reflects correlations among different industries. Originality/value: Based on the analysis of the community structure in Shanghai stock market, the result reflects some industrial characteristics, which has reference value to relationship among industries or sub-sectors of listed companies.

  7. What the 2008 stock market crash means for retirement security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butrica, Barbara A; Smith, Karen E; Toder, Eric J

    2010-10-01

    The 2008 stock market crash raises concerns about retirement security, especially since the increased prevalence of 401(k) and similar retirement saving plans means that more Americans are now stakeholders in the equity market than in the past. Using a dynamic microsimulation model, this paper explores the ability of alternate future stock market scenarios to restore retirement assets. The authors find that those near retirement could fare the worst because they have no time to recoup their losses. Mid-career workers could fare better because they have more time to rebuild their wealth. They may even gain income if they buy stocks at low prices and get above-average rates of return. High-income groups will be the most affected because they are most likely to have financial assets and to be invested in the stock market.

  8. Dynamic Stock Market Participation of Households with Heterogeneous Participation Costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers’ decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial...... education programs can affect consumers’ investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 5% of labor...... income; however, it varies substantially over consumers’ life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers’ life cycle....

  9. Social Interaction and Stock Market Participation: Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhifeng Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Current research on the impact of social interaction on the stock market participation only involves the traditional way of social interaction, and this paper further investigates the modern social interaction effects on the stock market participation and its activeness. The sample containing 150 Chinese counties is selected, and we apply grouping analysis and linear regression to conclude that social interaction has positive influence on the stock market participation and its activeness. Both traditional and modern social interaction ways affect the stock market participation and its activeness to the similar extent, so modern social interaction is of the same importance. Controlling for the respondents’ age, wealth, and education level, the above conclusion still holds.

  10. Determinants Of Equity Prices In The Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Usman Javaid

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of market variables on the movement stock prices in Pakistan. Asset pricing is considered as efficient if the asset prices reflect all available market information. This study examined the extent to which some "information factors" or market indices affect the stock price. A simple regression model has been used to develop a relation between the variables (stock prices, earnings per share, gross domestic product, dividend, inflation and KIBOR after testing for multi-collinearity among the independent variables. All the variables have shown positive correlation with stock prices with some exceptions of GDP and inflation. This study has enriched the existing literature while it would help policy makers who are interested in deploying instruments of monetary policy and other economic indices for the growth of the capital market.

  11. Network formation in a multi-asset artificial stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Songtao; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei; Wang, Chao

    2018-04-01

    A multi-asset artificial stock market is developed. In the market, stocks are assigned to a number of sectors and traded by heterogeneous investors. The mechanism of continuous double auction is employed to clear order book and form daily closed prices. Simulation results of prices at the sector level show an intra-sector similarity and inter-sector distinctiveness, and returns of individual stocks have stylized facts that are ubiquitous in the real-world stock market. We find that the market risk factor has critical impact on both network topology transition and connection formation, and that sector risk factors account for the formation of intra-sector links and sector-based local interaction. In addition, the number of community in threshold-based networks is correlated negatively and positively with the value of correlation coefficients and the ratio of intra-sector links, which are respectively determined by intensity of sector risk factors and the number of sectors.

  12. International stock market integration: Central and South Eastern Europe compared

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, Roman; Petrovski, D.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 1 (2013), s. 81-91 ISSN 0939-3625 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : stock market s * South Eastern Europe Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.611, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/horvath- international stock market integration central and south eastern europe compared.pdf

  13. Beginning an African Stock Markets Integration? A Wavelet Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gourène, Grakolet Arnold Zamereith; Mendy, Pierre; Elegbe, Aguin Franck Yvon

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the integration of the six largest African stock markets at different timescales. We want to see whether the numerous measures and reforms put in place to integrate the African stock markets are efficient. First, we used the Wavelet Multiple Correlation and the Wavelet Multiple Cross-Correlation proposed by Fernandez-Macho (2012). Then, we combine the spillovers index based on generalized vector autoregressive proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) with the Maxi...

  14. International Stock Market Comovements: What Happened during the Financial Crisis?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, Roman; Poldauf, P.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 1 (2012), s. 1-21 ISSN 1524-5861 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : stock market comovements * financial crisis * GARCH Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/horvath- international stock market comovements what happened during the financial crisis.pdf

  15. Did pension plan accounting contribute to a stock market bubble?

    OpenAIRE

    Julia Lynn Coronado; Steven A. Sharpe

    2003-01-01

    During the 1990s, the asset portfolios of defined-benefit (DB) pension plans ballooned with the booming stock market. Due to current accounting guidelines, the robust growth in pension assets resulted in a stealthy but substantial boost to the profits of sponsoring corporations. This study assesses the extent to which equity investors were fooled by pension accounting. First, we test whether stock prices reflected the fair market value of sponsoring firms' net pension assets reported in footn...

  16. Macroeconomics Variables and the Stock Market : The Case of Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Yelyubayev, Talgat

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the Russian stock market. Following macroeconomic variables are used: industrial production, consumer price index, discount rate, exchange rate and oil prices. Index of the MICEX stock exchange is chosen to represent the Russian market. Monthly time series data of mentioned variables are used and time span covers September 1997 to April 2011 period. Empirical analysis consists of applying Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF...

  17. Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irshad Hira

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship of political instability with the stock prices. Results of the study indicated the negative relationship of stock prices with political instability. Moreover, results of suggested that instable political system ultimately leads decline in stock prices. Inflation has shown negative relationship with stock prices whereas, industrial production and Exports have positive relationship with stock prices.

  18. Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Irshad Hira

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated the relationship of political instability with the stock prices. Results of the study indicated the negative relationship of stock prices with political instability. Moreover, results of suggested that instable political system ultimately leads decline in stock prices. Inflation has shown negative relationship with stock prices whereas, industrial production and Exports have positive relationship with stock prices.

  19. Effects of daylight savings time changes on stock market volatility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berument, M Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet; Onar, Bahar

    2010-04-01

    The presence of daylight savings time effects on stock returns and on stock volatility was investigated using an EGARCH specification to model the conditional variance. The evidence gathered from the major United States stock markets for the period between 1967 and 2007 did not support the existence of the daylight savings time effect on stock returns or on volatility. Returns on the first business day following daylight savings time changes were not lower nor was the volatility higher, as would be expected if there were an effect.

  20. Style investing: behavioral explanations of stock market anomalies

    OpenAIRE

    Wouters, T.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract PhD-project The aim of this thesis is to explore the mechanisms of style investing. My project consists of two parts, each with an individual goal: 1. The first objective will be to analyze the implications of the dynamics of value and growth strategies for the US stock market. 2. The second objective will be to find explanations for stock returns by introducing the effects of collective preferences of investors into the dynamics of stock markets. We introduce style popularity as an ...

  1. A quantum-like approach to the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Diederik; D'Hooghe, Bart; Sozzo, Sandro

    2012-03-01

    Modern approaches to stock pricing in quantitative finance are typically founded on the Black-Scholes model and the underlying random walk hypothesis. Empirical data indicate that this hypothesis works well in stable situations but, in abrupt transitions such as during an economical crisis, the random walk model fails and alternative descriptions are needed. For this reason, several proposals have been recently forwarded which are based on the formalism of quantum mechanics. In this paper we apply the SCoP formalism, elaborated to provide an operational foundation of quantum mechanics, to the stock market. We argue that a stock market is an intrinsically contextual system where agents' decisions globally influence the market system and stocks prices, determining a nonclassical behavior. More specifically, we maintain that a given stock does not generally have a definite value, e.g., a price, but its value is actualized as a consequence of the contextual interactions in the trading process. This contextual influence is responsible of the non-Kolmogorovian quantumlike behavior of the market at a statistical level. Then, we propose a sphere model within our hidden measurement formalism that describes a buying/selling process of a stock and shows that it is intuitively reasonable to assume that the stock has not a definite price until it is traded. This result is relevant in our opinion since it provides a theoretical support to the use of quantum models in finance.

  2. Hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Ya-Chun; Cai, Shi-Min; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2012-01-01

    The financial market and turbulence have been broadly compared on account of the same quantitative methods and several common stylized facts they share. In this paper, the She–Leveque (SL) hierarchy, proposed to explain the anomalous scaling exponents deviating from Kolmogorov monofractal scaling of the velocity fluctuation in fluid turbulence, is applied to study and quantify the hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets. We therefore observed certain interesting results: (i) the hierarchical structure related to multifractal scaling generally presents in all the stock price fluctuations we investigated. (ii) The quantitatively statistical parameters that describe SL hierarchy are different between developed financial markets and emerging ones, distinctively. (iii) For the high-frequency stock price fluctuation, the hierarchical structure varies with different time periods. All these results provide a novel analogy in turbulence and financial market dynamics and an insight to deeply understand multifractality in financial markets. (paper)

  3. The impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malim, M. R.; Halim, F. A.; Murad, A.; Maad, H. A.; Annuar, N. F. M.

    2017-09-01

    The essential of derivatives has been discovered by researchers over recent decade. However, the conclusions made regarding the impact of derivatives on stock market volatility remains debatable. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market volatility by exploring FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index Futures (BMD FKLI) using FBM KLCI as the underlying asset. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model was employed to realize the objective. The results have shown that the introduction of futures trading has decreased the volatility of Malaysian stock market. The volatility increased vigorously during the Asian financial crisis compared to the Global financial crisis. However, the role of futures as a risk transfer is agreed as it could improve the market by decreasing the volatility in the spot market.

  4. The Impulsive Stock Market of Bangladesh and the Great Recession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saif Hossain

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates whether the stock market of Bangladesh can be related with the last world recession. The Pearson’s correlation analysis model was used to find the correlation between the Dhaka Stock Exchange General index and real GDP growth rate of the world. The findings show that no statistically significant correlation exists between the two variables inferring that the stock market of Bangladesh was not significantly affected by ‘the great recession’ (2007-2009. The findings of this study are inconsistent with the results of previous studies which claimed that the Bangladesh stock market shares a common stochastic trend with the capital market of USA. The results of this study may be explained mainly by domestic factors such as low market capitalization, market inefficiency, strict monitoring and control by the Security and Exchange Commission and low international participation in the stock market of Bangladesh. All these factors, along with the inconsistency with past results, instigate further investigation.

  5. Multiscale Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis of STOCK Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yi; Shang, Pengjian

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, we employ the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) to investigate the cross-correlations between different stock markets. We report the results of cross-correlated behaviors in US, Chinese and European stock markets in period 1997-2012 by using DCCA method. The DCCA shows the cross-correlated behaviors of intra-regional and inter-regional stock markets in the short and long term which display the similarities and differences of cross-correlated behaviors simply and roughly and the persistence of cross-correlated behaviors of fluctuations. Then, because of the limitation and inapplicability of DCCA method, we propose multiscale detrended cross-correlation analysis (MSDCCA) method to avoid "a priori" selecting the ranges of scales over which two coefficients of the classical DCCA method are identified, and employ MSDCCA to reanalyze these cross-correlations to exhibit some important details such as the existence and position of minimum, maximum and bimodal distribution which are lost if the scale structure is described by two coefficients only and essential differences and similarities in the scale structures of cross-correlation of intra-regional and inter-regional markets. More statistical characteristics of cross-correlation obtained by MSDCCA method help us to understand how two different stock markets influence each other and to analyze the influence from thus two inter-regional markets on the cross-correlation in detail, thus we get a richer and more detailed knowledge of the complex evolutions of dynamics of the cross-correlations between stock markets. The application of MSDCCA is important to promote our understanding of the internal mechanisms and structures of financial markets and helps to forecast the stock indices based on our current results demonstrated the cross-correlations between stock indices. We also discuss the MSDCCA methods of secant rolling window with different sizes and, lastly, provide some relevant implications and

  6. INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN JAKARTA STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER PACIFIC-BASIN STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noer Azam Achsani

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 International capital markets linkages have been studied since early 90-es.  Most of these studies have mainly focused on the US and other developed markets. There were only a few researches on this topic in the emerging markets.  This paper examines the dynamic linkages among Indonesian and other Pacific-Basin stock markets using correlation analysis, Granger-causality and vector autoregressive (VAR approach. All the methods give generally similar results. Our empirical results indicate a high degree of international co-movement among the stock price indices.  The degree of integration among these markets after Asian Crisis increased substantially in compare to those before Asian Crisis. The results also show that there are close relationships among the geographically and economically closed markets such as ASEAN markets, New Zealand-Australian and also Hong Kong - South Korea.  The pattern of impulse-response functions illustrates a rapid transmission of stock market events. Shocks in the developed markets are immediately transmitted to other markets. Shocks in the emerging markets are also transmitted to other markets, but without such a big effect comparing to those in the developed markets. The Jakarta stock exchange is strongly correlated with other Pacific-Basin markets, especially with ASEAN markets, Hong Kong and Australia.   The strongest foreign effects for the JSX come from Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand. They can explain about 5 – 8% of error variance of the Jakarta Index. In contrast, the JSX index can explain 3 - 5 % of their error variances. 

  7. Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience

    OpenAIRE

    Giorgio Canarella; Stephen M. Miller; Stephen K. Pollard

    2009-01-01

    This paper explores the dynamic linkages that portray different facets of the joint probability distribution of stock market returns in NAFTA (i.e., Canada, Mexico, and the US). Our examination of interactions of the NAFTA stock markets considers three issues. First, we examine the long-run relationship between the three markets, using cointegration techniques. Second, we evaluate the dynamic relationships between the three markets, using impulse-response analysis. Finally, we explore the vol...

  8. A causality between fund performance and stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho-Yong; Kwon, Okyu; Oh, Gabjin

    2016-02-01

    We investigate whether the characteristic fund performance indicators (FPI), such as the fund return, the Net asset value (NAV) and the cash flow, are correlated with the asset price movement using information flows estimated by the Granger causality test. First, we find that the information flow of FPI is most sensitive to extreme events of the Korean stock market, which include negative events such as the sub-prime crisis and the impact of QE (quantitative easing) by the US subprime and Europe financial crisis as well as the positive events of the golden period of Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), except for the fund cash flow. Second, both the fund return and the NAV exhibit significant correlations with the KOSPI, whereas the cash flow is not correlated with the stock market. This result suggests that the information resulting from the ability of the fund manager should influence stock market. Finally, during market crisis period, information flows between FPI and the Korean stock market are significantly positively correlated with the market volatility.

  9. Volatility Transmission between Bond and Stock Markets: Case of Emerging Financial Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Saadaoui

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the transmission of market volatility between the emerging stock and bond markets. In order to examine this relation between the bond and stock market, we use the BEKK GARCH model; a decomposition approach of the multivariate GARCH (1, 1 model. The outcome of this study displays a significant relation between bond and stock index and the incidence of the interest rate in this transmission. Besides, there is a transmission of volatility between the bond and stock index demonstrated by the DCC GARCH graph.

  10. Stock market integration and the speed of information transmission

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Černý, Alexandr

    -, č. 242 (2004), s. 1-25 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK8002119; GA ČR GA402/04/0270 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : stock market integration * market comovement * high-frequency data Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  11. The Inefficiency of the Stock Market Equilibrium under Moral Hazard

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calcagno, R.; Wagner, W.B.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we study the constrained efficiency of a stock market equilibrium under moral hazard.We extend a standard general equilbrium framework (Magill and Quinzii (1999) and (2002)) to allow for a more general initial ownership distribution.We show that the market allocation is constrained

  12. Why African Stock Markets Should Formally Harmonise and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Review of Economics and Finance, Vol 4, No. 1, Dec 2012. 57. 2010; Ntim et al, 2011). While this indicates that these African stock markets have yet to formally integrate into the competitive global financial market place on the one hand, on the other hand, it offers significant portfolio diversification opportunities for ...

  13. Stocks for the long run? : Evidence from emerging markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spierdijk, Laura; Umar, Zaghum

    2014-01-01

    We estimate the myopic (single-period) and intertemporal hedging (long-run) demand for stocks in 20 growth-leading emerging market economies during the 1999-2012 period. We consider two types of investors: a domestic investor who invests in emerging-market assets only (with returns in local

  14. Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Amram (Ron)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines whether there is evidence of spillovers of volatility from the Chinese stock market to its neighbours and trading partners, including Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and USA. China’s increasing integration into the global market may have important

  15. The Impact of Earthquakes on the Domestic Stock Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, Bert; Voorhorst, Yvonne

    How do financial markets respond to the impact of earthquakes? We investigate this for more than 100 earthquakes with fatalities in 21 countries from five continents in the period 1973-2011. Using an event study methodology we conclude that there are significant negative effects on stock market

  16. Stock market reaction to xenophobic violence in an emerging economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins C. Ngwakwe

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an initial evaluation of possible effect of xenophobic violence on the Johannesburg Stock Market. Violence is inimical to economic development as it constraints normal business operations and causes a rebound on the stock market. The paper applied the event trend analysis combined with a statistical t-test of paired sample means in the pre and post-xenophobic period stock performance. Data was drawn from the JSE All Share Index - Capped Indices Performance (J303 - Capi DY for 2008 and 2015, during & after the xenophobic violence of 2008 and 2015. The economic consequences of social instability were substantiated with related literature. The theoretical foundation was inclined on the integrated threat theory and the social contract theory. Findings from the analysis of paired sample t-test showed a significant difference in means of stock performance with P<0.05 within and after the xenophobic period. Furthermore, a t-test of similarity in stock performance chart for periods of xenophobic violence 2008 and 2015 showed no significant difference in stock performance trend – indicating similarity in stock chart between 2008 and 2015 periods of xenophobic violence. The paper recommends the need for further research of a broader scope that will consider many years of xenophobic events or similar violence across countries using multiple stock performance and economic performance indicators.

  17. Trade networks evolution under the conditions of stock market globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kopylova Olga Volodymyrivna

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The modern perception of the stock market in terms of information technologies rapid development and under the institutionalists influence has been significantly modified and becomes multifaceted. It was detected that the main function of the market is activated, information asymmetry is minimized and more advanced financial architecture space is formed through trade networks. Formation of the modern trade networks has started on the basis of the old infrastructure, that had the highest tendency to self-organization and adaptation. The proposed architecture of trade networks of the stock market has a very clear vector of subordination – from top to bottom and has a number of positive points.

  18. Changes in carbon stocks of Danish agricultural mineral soils between 1986 and 2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taghizadeh-Toosi, Arezoo; Olesen, Jørgen E; Kristensen, Kristian

    2014-01-01

    To establish a national inventory of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and their change over time, soil was sampled in 1986, 1997 and 2009 in a Danish nation-wide 7-km grid and analysed for SOC content. The average SOC stock in 0–100-cm depth soil was 142 t C ha−1, with 63, 41 and 38 t C ha−1 in t......, confirming that inventories based only on top-soils are incomplete. We found no significant effects in 50–100 cm. Our study indicates a small annual loss of 0.2 t C ha−1 from the 0–100 cm soil layer between 1986 and 2009.......To establish a national inventory of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and their change over time, soil was sampled in 1986, 1997 and 2009 in a Danish nation-wide 7-km grid and analysed for SOC content. The average SOC stock in 0–100-cm depth soil was 142 t C ha−1, with 63, 41 and 38 t C ha−1...... in the 0–25, 25–50 and 50–100 cm depths, respectively. Changes at 0–25 cm were small. During 1986–97, SOC in the 25–50-cm layer increased in sandy soils while SOC decreased in loam soils. In the subsequent period (1997–2009), most soils showed significant losses of SOC. From 1986 to 2009, SOC at 0–100 cm...

  19. Stock Market Performance and Pension Fund Investment Policy: Rebalancing, Free Float, or Market Timing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bikker, J.A.; Broeders, D.W.G.A; de Dreu, J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper is the first that examines the impact of stock market performance on the investment policy of pension funds. We find that stock market prices influence the asset allocation of Dutch pension funds in two ways. In the short term, outperformance of equities over bonds and other investment

  20. Cascading effect of contagion in Indian stock market: Evidence from reachable stocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajan Sruthi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The financial turbulence in a country percolates to another along the trajectories of reachable stocks owned by foreign investors. To indemnify the losses originating from the crisis country, foreign investors dispose of shares in other markets triggering a contagion in an unrelated market. This paper provides empirical evidence for the stock market crisis that spreads globally through investors owning international portfolios, with special reference to the global financial crisis of 2008–09. Using two-step Limited Information Maximum Likelihood estimation and Murphy-Topel variance estimate, the results show that reachability plays a crucial role in the transposal of distress from one country to another, explaining investor-induced contagion in the Indian stock market.

  1. Market power behaviour in the danish food marketing chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents and demonstrates an econometric approach to analysing food industry firms' market pricing behaviour within the framework of translog cost functions and based on firm-level accounts panel data. The study identifies effects that can be interpreted as firms' market power behaviour...... in output or input markets. The most robust indications of market power behaviour in output markets are found in the pork and poultry processing sectors, as well as for firms in the bakeries sector. On the other hand, the most robust market power behaviour indications regarding input markets are found...... for poultry processing. In general, the patterns with regard to market power behaviour seem to be more clearly identified in the processing sectors than in the distribution sectors....

  2. The impact of foreign investors on the Serbian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakočević Rade

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Frontier markets, such as Serbia, which are at the early stages of development, are characterized by very low level of solvency, absence of corporate management rules and reports to the public, insufficiently developed regulations, as well as significant participation of foreign portfolio investors in the exchange. Those are usually foreign investment funds specialized in risky investments at such markets; they apply the principle of geographic portfolio diversification in their investment policy. At the Belgrade Stock Exchange, foreign investors have been present at the stock market since 2002 and they participated in high volumes in stock buying during the stock market growth in the period from 2002 to 2007, whereas during the crisis at the Serbian capital market from 2008 to 2010 there was a significant increase in foreign investors' participation on the selling side and a withdrawal from the Belgrade Stock Exchange. Such behavior of foreign investors was initially prompted by local factors, but was intensified by the global financial crisis and will be analyzed in this paper.

  3. News media and the stock market: Assessing mutual relationships : An interdisciplinary multi-method study of financial journalism, news media, emotions, market events and the stock market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strauß, N.

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation provides insights in explaining the interrelationships between news media and the stock market. First, the results show that first-hand economic news seems to induce stronger, and more immediate stock market reactions than already known public information. Second, public economic

  4. Universal behavior of extreme price movements in stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, Miguel A; Gerig, Austin; Vicente, Javier

    2009-12-23

    Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using a large collection of data from three different stock markets, we present evidence that a modification to the random model--adding a slow, but significant, fluctuation to the standard deviation of the process--accurately explains the probability of different-sized price changes, including the relative high frequency of extreme movements. Furthermore, we show that this process is similar across stocks so that their price fluctuations can be characterized by a single curve. Because the behavior of price fluctuations is rooted in the characteristics of volatility, we expect our results to bring increased interest to stochastic volatility models, and especially to those that can produce the properties of volatility reported here.

  5. The Indian Stock Market and the Great Recession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arindam MANDAL

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the impact of the outbreak of the Great Recession of 2007 on the behavior of the Indian stock market. The SENSEX index of the Bombay Stock Exchange is analyzed for the prerecession period of January 2002 – November 2007 and the postrecession outbreak period of December 2007 – July 2010. Substantial increase in SENSEX return volatility observed during the post-recession outbreak period, whereas no substantial difference in returns between two periods is found. Also strong co-movements in returns and volatility are observed between the SENSEX and other major stock indexes during the post-recession period. Our results establish the dominance of global factors in influencing Indian stock market behavior during periods of economic turmoil.

  6. Statistical Analysis by Statistical Physics Model for the STOCK Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tiansong; Wang, Jun; Fan, Bingli

    A new stochastic stock price model of stock markets based on the contact process of the statistical physics systems is presented in this paper, where the contact model is a continuous time Markov process, one interpretation of this model is as a model for the spread of an infection. Through this model, the statistical properties of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) are studied. In the present paper, the data of SSE Composite Index and the data of SZSE Component Index are analyzed, and the corresponding simulation is made by the computer computation. Further, we investigate the statistical properties, fat-tail phenomena, the power-law distributions, and the long memory of returns for these indices. The techniques of skewness-kurtosis test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and R/S analysis are applied to study the fluctuation characters of the stock price returns.

  7. Empirical Rationality in the Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raahauge, Peter

    2003-01-01

    for this empiricalrationality on part of the agent, the resulting empirical model assignslikelihood to the data actually observed, unlike in the unmodified rational expectationscase. A Lucas (1978)-type asset pricing model which incorporatesempirical rationality is constructed and estimated using U.S. stock data...

  8. Fractal profit landscape of the stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grönlund, Andreas; Yi, Il Gu; Kim, Beom Jun

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.

  9. Legal insider trading and stock market liquidity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Degryse, Hans; de Jong, Frank; Lefebvre, J.J.G.

    This paper assesses the impact of legal trades by corporate insiders on the liquidity of the firm’s stock. For this purpose, we analyze two liquidity measures and one information asymmetry measure. The analysis allows us to study as well the effect of a change in insider trading regulation, namely

  10. The Indian Stock Market and the Great Recession

    OpenAIRE

    Arindam MANDAL; Prasun BHATTACHARJEE

    2012-01-01

    This study analyzes the impact of the outbreak of the Great Recession of 2007 on the behavior of the Indian stock market. The SENSEX index of the Bombay Stock Exchange is analyzed for the prerecession period of January 2002 – November 2007 and the postrecession outbreak period of December 2007 – July 2010. Substantial increase in SENSEX return volatility observed during the post-recession outbreak period, whereas no substantial difference in returns between two periods is...

  11. Presidential rhetoric, sentiment and their relation to stock markets

    OpenAIRE

    Partelová, Mária

    2017-01-01

    This thesis intends to uncover the linkages between the emotions contained within remarks of the president of the United States expressed on Twitter and movements of the stock market indices. The daily comments of the two consecutive presidents, Barack Obama and Donald Trump are annotated with sentiment intensity values using the lexicon-based model called VADER. Our analysis further focuses on testing for Granger causality using the bivariate vector autoregression. Overall, three major stock...

  12. The impact of leverage on stock returns: an empirical test on the Australian stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Thuy Linh, Doan

    2009-01-01

    Asset pricing model is no longer a new topic to theoretical finance but it still maintains researchers’ interest until now. The role of firm characteristics in explaining the stock returns becomes more and more significant in the empirical studies. The Fama French three factor is the most famous model of testing the firm characteristics: size effect and book to market effect on stock returns. However, this model does not include leverage, one of the most important firm characteristics. Starti...

  13. Quantifying the effect of investors’ attention on stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhen-Hua; Liu, Jian-Guo; Yu, Chang-Rui; Han, Jing-Ti

    2017-01-01

    The investors’ attention has been extensively used to predict the stock market. Different from existing proxies of the investors’ attention, such as the Google trends, Baidu index (BI), we argue the collective attention from the stock trading platforms could reflect the investors’ attention more closely. By calculated the increments of the attention volume for each stock (IAVS) from the stock trading platforms, we investigate the effect of investors’ attention measured by the IAVS on the movement of the stock market. The experimental results for Chinese Securities Index 100 (CSI100) show that the BI is significantly correlated with the returns of CSI100 at 1% significance level only in 2014. However, it should be emphasized that the correlation of the new proposed measure, namely IAVS, is significantly at 1% significance level in 2014 and 2015. It shows that the effect of the measure IAVS on the movement of the stock market is more stable and significant than BI. This study yields important invest implications and better understanding of collective investors’ attention. PMID:28542216

  14. Quantifying the effect of investors' attention on stock market.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen-Hua Yang

    Full Text Available The investors' attention has been extensively used to predict the stock market. Different from existing proxies of the investors' attention, such as the Google trends, Baidu index (BI, we argue the collective attention from the stock trading platforms could reflect the investors' attention more closely. By calculated the increments of the attention volume for each stock (IAVS from the stock trading platforms, we investigate the effect of investors' attention measured by the IAVS on the movement of the stock market. The experimental results for Chinese Securities Index 100 (CSI100 show that the BI is significantly correlated with the returns of CSI100 at 1% significance level only in 2014. However, it should be emphasized that the correlation of the new proposed measure, namely IAVS, is significantly at 1% significance level in 2014 and 2015. It shows that the effect of the measure IAVS on the movement of the stock market is more stable and significant than BI. This study yields important invest implications and better understanding of collective investors' attention.

  15. Analysis of electricity price in Danish competitive electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. 10 year actual data from the Danish competitive electricity market are collected and analyzed. The relationship among the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price), the consumption and the wind power generation...... in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price and the regulation price generally decrease when the wind power penetration in the power system increases or the consumption of the power system decreases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price and the regulation price for different...... consumption periods and wind power penetration are analyzed. Simulation results show that the findings of this paper are useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal bidding strategy so that the imbalance cost of trading wind power on the electricity market could be reduced....

  16. Optimization Stock Portfolio With Mean-Variance and Linear Programming: Case In Indonesia Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen Sun

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available It is observed that the number of Indonesia’s domestic investor who involved in the stock exchange is very less compare to its total number of population (only about 0.1%. As a result, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX is highly affected by foreign investor that can threat the economy. Domestic investor tends to invest in risk-free asset such as deposit in the bank since they are not familiar yet with the stock market and anxious about the risk (risk-averse type of investor. Therefore, it is important to educate domestic investor to involve in the stock exchange. Investing in portfolio of stock is one of the best choices for risk-averse investor (such as Indonesia domestic investor since it offers lower risk for a given level of return. This paper studies the optimization of Indonesian stock portfolio. The data is the historical return of 10 stocks of LQ 45 for 5 time series (January 2004 – December 2008. It will be focus on selecting stocks into a portfolio, setting 10 of stock portfolios using mean variance method combining with the linear programming (solver. Furthermore, based on Efficient Frontier concept and Sharpe measurement, there will be one stock portfolio picked as an optimum Portfolio (Namely Portfolio G. Then, Performance of portfolio G will be evaluated by using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Measurement to show whether the return of Portfolio G exceeds the market return. This paper also illustrates how the stock composition of the Optimum Portfolio (G succeeds to predict the portfolio return in the future (5th January – 3rd April 2009. The result of the study observed that optimization portfolio using Mean-Variance (consistent with Markowitz theory combine with linear programming can be applied into Indonesia stock’s portfolio. All the measurements (Sharpe, Jensen, and Treynor show that the portfolio G is a superior portfolio. It is also been found that the composition (weights stocks of optimum portfolio (G can be used to

  17. A fuzzy logic model to forecast stock market momentum in Indonesia's property and real estate sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penawar, H. K.; Rustam, Z.

    2017-07-01

    The Capital market has the important role in Indonesia's economy. The capital market does not only support the economy of Indonesia but also being an indicator Indonesia's economy improvement. Something that has been traded in the capital market is stock (stock market). Nowadays, the stock market is full of uncertainty. That uncertainty values make predicting stock market is all that we have to do before we make a decision in the stock market. One that can be predicted in the stock market is momentum. To forecast stock market momentum, it can use fuzzy logic model. In the process of modeling, it will be used 14 days historical data that consisting the value of open, high, low, and close, to predict the next 5 days momentum categories. There are three momentum categories namely Bullish, Neutral, and Bearish. To illustrate the fuzzy logic model, we will use stocks data from several companies that listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in property and real estate sector.

  18. An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Chuan Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

  19. Quantifying the behavior of stock correlations under market stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, Tobias; Kenett, Dror Y; Stanley, H Eugene; Helbing, Dirk; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2012-01-01

    Understanding correlations in complex systems is crucial in the face of turbulence, such as the ongoing financial crisis. However, in complex systems, such as financial systems, correlations are not constant but instead vary in time. Here we address the question of quantifying state-dependent correlations in stock markets. Reliable estimates of correlations are absolutely necessary to protect a portfolio. We analyze 72 years of daily closing prices of the 30 stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We find the striking result that the average correlation among these stocks scales linearly with market stress reflected by normalized DJIA index returns on various time scales. Consequently, the diversification effect which should protect a portfolio melts away in times of market losses, just when it would most urgently be needed. Our empirical analysis is consistent with the interesting possibility that one could anticipate diversification breakdowns, guiding the design of protected portfolios.

  20. Quantifying the semantics of search behavior before stock market moves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curme, Chester; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene; Moat, Helen Susannah

    2014-08-12

    Technology is becoming deeply interwoven into the fabric of society. The Internet has become a central source of information for many people when making day-to-day decisions. Here, we present a method to mine the vast data Internet users create when searching for information online, to identify topics of interest before stock market moves. In an analysis of historic data from 2004 until 2012, we draw on records from the search engine Google and online encyclopedia Wikipedia as well as judgments from the service Amazon Mechanical Turk. We find evidence of links between Internet searches relating to politics or business and subsequent stock market moves. In particular, we find that an increase in search volume for these topics tends to precede stock market falls. We suggest that extensions of these analyses could offer insight into large-scale information flow before a range of real-world events.

  1. A quantum anharmonic oscillator model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tingting; Chen, Yu

    2017-02-01

    A financially interpretable quantum model is proposed to study the probability distributions of the stock price return. The dynamics of a quantum particle is considered an analog of the motion of stock price. Then the probability distributions of price return can be computed from the wave functions that evolve according to Schrodinger equation. Instead of a harmonic oscillator in previous studies, a quantum anharmonic oscillator is applied to the stock in liquid market. The leptokurtic distributions of price return can be reproduced by our quantum model with the introduction of mixed-state and multi-potential. The trend following dominant market, in which the price return follows a bimodal distribution, is discussed as a specific case of the illiquid market.

  2. The mutual causality analysis between the stock and futures markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Can-Zhong; Lin, Qing-Wen

    2017-07-01

    In this paper we employ the conditional Granger causality model to estimate the information flow, and find that the improved model outperforms the Granger causality model in revealing the asymmetric correlation between stocks and futures in the Chinese market. First, we find that information flows estimated by Granger causality tests from futures to stocks are greater than those from stocks to futures. Additionally, average correlation coefficients capture some important characteristics between stock prices and information flows over time. Further, we find that direct information flows estimated by conditional Granger causality tests from stocks to futures are greater than those from futures to stocks. Besides, the substantial increases of information flows and direct information flows exhibit a certain degree of synchronism with the occurrences of important events. Finally, the comparative analysis with the asymmetric ratio and the bootstrap technique demonstrates the slight asymmetry of information flows and the significant asymmetry of direct information flows. It reveals that the information flows from futures to stocks are slightly greater than those in the reverse direction, while the direct information flows from stocks to futures are significantly greater than those in the reverse direction.

  3. Quantifying Wikipedia Usage Patterns Before Stock Market Moves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moat, Helen Susannah; Curme, Chester; Avakian, Adam; Kenett, Dror Y.; Stanley, H. Eugene; Preis, Tobias

    2013-05-01

    Financial crises result from a catastrophic combination of actions. Vast stock market datasets offer us a window into some of the actions that have led to these crises. Here, we investigate whether data generated through Internet usage contain traces of attempts to gather information before trading decisions were taken. We present evidence in line with the intriguing suggestion that data on changes in how often financially related Wikipedia pages were viewed may have contained early signs of stock market moves. Our results suggest that online data may allow us to gain new insight into early information gathering stages of decision making.

  4. Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte; Savva, Christos S.

    This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to revisit the intertemporal risk-return relation in five large European stock markets. We identify country specific, Euro area, and global factors to determine the conditional moments of returns considering the role of higher......-order moments as additional measures of risk. The preferred combination of factors varies across countries. In the linear model, there is a strong but negative relation between conditional returns and conditional volatility. A Markov switching model describes the risk-return trade-off well. A number...... of variables have explanatory power for the states of the European stock markets....

  5. Is political risk still an issue for Turkish stock market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samet Günay

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we analyze the effects of internal political risk on the Turkish stock market in the period of 2001–2014. Empirical analyses are conducted through various methods to obtain breaks and regimes in the return volatilities of the BIST100 index. According to the results, while the number of breaks has increased in recent years, the risk level of recent periods is significantly lower than the early regimes, and the risk level trend for all regimes show a negative slope. In conclusion, the Turkish stock market responds to political events, but according to our results, not as significantly as in the past.

  6. Assessment of 48 Stock markets using adaptive multifractal approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Paulo; Dionísio, Andreia; Movahed, S. M. S.

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, Stock market comovements are examined using cointegration, Granger causality tests and nonlinear approaches in context of mutual information and correlations. Since underlying data sets are affected by non-stationarities and trends, we also apply Adaptive Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (AMF-DFA) and Adaptive Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (AMF-DXA). We find only 170 pair of Stock markets cointegrated, and according to the Granger causality and mutual information, we realize that the strongest relations lies between emerging markets, and between emerging and frontier markets. According to scaling exponent given by AMF-DFA, h(q = 2) > 1, we find that all underlying data sets belong to non-stationary process. According to Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), only 8 markets are classified in uncorrelated processes at 2 σ confidence interval. 6 Stock markets belong to anti-correlated class and dominant part of markets has memory in corresponding daily index prices during January 1995 to February 2014. New-Zealand with H = 0 . 457 ± 0 . 004 and Jordan with H = 0 . 602 ± 0 . 006 are far from EMH. The nature of cross-correlation exponents based on AMF-DXA is almost multifractal for all pair of Stock markets. The empirical relation, Hxy ≤ [Hxx +Hyy ] / 2, is confirmed. Mentioned relation for q > 0 is also satisfied while for q markets for small fluctuations is affected by contribution of major pair. For larger fluctuations, the cross-correlation contains information from both local (internal) and global (external) conditions. Width of singularity spectrum for auto-correlation and cross-correlation are Δαxx ∈ [ 0 . 304 , 0 . 905 ] and Δαxy ∈ [ 0 . 246 , 1 . 178 ] , respectively. The wide range of singularity spectrum for cross-correlation confirms that the bilateral relation between Stock markets is more complex. The value of σDCCA indicates that all pairs of stock market studied in this time interval belong to cross

  7. Market power behaviour in the danish food marketing chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents and demonstrates an econometric approach to analysing food industry firms' market pricing behaviour within the framework of translog cost functions and based on firm-level accounts panel data. The study identifies effects that can be interpreted as firms' market power behaviour...

  8. Testing for multifractality of Islamic stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saâdaoui, Foued

    2018-04-01

    Studying the power-law scaling of financial time series is a promising area of econophysics, which has often contributed to the understanding of the intricate features of the global markets. In this article, we examine the multifractality of some financial processes and the underlying formation mechanisms in the context of Islamic equity markets. The well-known Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) is used to investigate the self-similar properties of two Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes (DJIM). The results prove that both indexes exhibit multifractal properties. By discussing the sources of multifractality, we find that they are related to the occurrence of extreme events, long-range dependency of autocorrelations and fat-tailed distribution of returns. These results have several important implications for analysts and decision makers in modeling the dynamics of Islamic markets, thus recommending efficient asset allocation plans to investors dealing with Islamic equity markets.

  9. Dynamic Linkages Between Kazakhstan and Its Major Trading PArtners' Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Zhulanov, Bekezhan

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the linkages among stock markets of six countries. Kazakhstan stock market was chosen as dependant variable. Other five stock markets represent trade partner countries’ markets, namely Russia, Ukraine, US, China, Turkey. Particular study implemented Johansen – Juselius (1990) technique to investigate the cointegration between variables and Granger causality test (1969) to determine the causal relationship among stock markets. Trace test within cointegration approach identi...

  10. Stock or stroke? Stock market movement and stroke incidence in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chun-Chih; Chen, Chin-Shyan; Liu, Tsai-Ching; Lin, Ying-Tzu

    2012-12-01

    This paper investigates the impact of stock market movement on incidences of stroke utilizing population-based aggregate data in Taiwan. Using the daily data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and from the National Health Insurance Research Database during 2001/1/1-2007/12/31, which consist of 2556 observations, we examine the effects of stock market on stroke incidence - the level effect and the daily change effects. In general, we find that both a low stock index level and a daily fall in the stock index are associated with greater incidences of stroke. We further partition the data on sex and age. The level effect is found to be significant for either gender, in the 45-64 and 65 ≥ age groups. In addition, two daily change effects are found to be significant for males and the elderly. Although stockholdings can increase wealth, they can also increase stroke incidence, thereby representing a cost to health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Portfolio volatility of Islamic and conventional stock: The case of Indonesia stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldrin Herwany

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Conventional finance suggests that the higher the risk of an investment, the higher the return it should give. Nevertheless, whether Islamic stocks that offer alternative investment in the stock market suggest different risk-return relationship still needs to be investigated. This empirical study is aimed at assessing risk-return behavior of Islamic stocks. This study employs cross sectional data of portfolio developed using beta-rank and market capitalization, in which daily data will better reflect the real volatility. This study also measures volatility of both conventional and Islamic stocks using Value-at-Risk (VaR. To check whether Islamic stocks are immune from any impact of financial crisis, this study utilizes three periods of observation, i.e., before, during and after the 2008 crisis. This study assesses risk and return using Multi-index model, in which variables tested are the respective fundamental factors. Results of this study will provide more accurate approach in Islamic stocks analysis.

  12. Behaviorly realistic simulations of stock market traders with a soul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Sorin

    1999-09-01

    The price fluctuations of the stocks in the financial markets are the result of the individual operations by many individual investors. However for many decades the financial theory did not use directly this “microscopic representation” of the markets. The main difficulties preventing this approach were solved recently with the advent of modern computer technology: - massive detailed data on the individual market operations became available; - “microscopic simulations” of the stock markets in terms of their individual participating agents allow very realistic treatment of the problem. By taking advantage of the modern computer processing and simulation techniques, we are now able to confront real market data with the results of simulating “microscopic” realistic models of the markets. These models have the potential to include and study the effects on the market of any desired feature in the investors behavior: departures from rationality, herding effects, heterogeneous investor-specific trading strategies. We propose to use the comparison of computer simulations of microscopic models with the actual market data in order to validate and enhance the knowledge on the financial behavior of individuals. Moreover we hope to explain, understand (and may be predict and control) macroscopic market dynamical features (e.g., cycles of booms and crashes, investors wealth distribution, market returns probability distribution etc.) based on realistic models using this knowledge.

  13. Improving market oriented product development in Danish food companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne

    1994-01-01

    of this factor, it is a fact that the average company does not undertake marketing related activities in a way even close to that prescribed. This paper describes a research project undertaken with th of describing and later increasing the market orientation of the development fucntion in a number of Danish food......One of the factors that has been strongly associated with successful new product development is a profound knwledge of customers' needs and wants as well as the ability to transform this knowledge into specific product characteristics and benefits there is a general agreement on the importance......-processing companies. Preliminary results show that the companies have improved their market orientation, but also that the change pro has been difficult and time-consuming and improvements rather incremental....

  14. Stroke: a Hidden Danger of Margin Trading in Stock Markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shu-Hui; Wang, Chien-Ho; Liu, Tsai-Ching; Chen, Chin-Shyan

    2015-10-01

    Using 10-year population data from 2000 through 2009 in Taiwan, this is the first paper to analyze the relationship between margin trading in stock markets and stroke hospitalizations. The results show that 3 and 6 days after an increase of margin trading in the Taiwan stock markets are associated with greater stoke hospitalizations. In general, a 1 % increase in total margin trading positions is associated with an increment of 2.5 in the total number of stroke hospitalizations, where the mean number of hospital admissions is 233 cases a day. We further examine the effects of margin trading by gender and age groups and find that the effects of margin trading are significant for males and those who are 45-74 years old only. In summary, buying stocks with money you do not have is quite risky, especially if the prices of those stocks fall past a certain level or if there is a sudden and severe drop in the stock market. There is also a hidden danger to one's health from margin trading. A person should be cautious before conducting margin trading, because while it can be quite profitable, danger always lurks just around the corner.

  15. Changes of hierarchical network in local and world stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwary, Enayet Ullah; Lee, Jong Youl; Nobi, Ashadun; Kim, Doo Hwan; Lee, Jae Woo

    2017-10-01

    We consider the cross-correlation coefficients of the daily returns in the local and global stock markets. We generate the minimal spanning tree (MST) using the correlation matrix. We observe that the MSTs change their structure from chain-like networks to star-like networks during periods of market uncertainty. We quantify the measure of the hierarchical network utilizing the value of the hierarchy measured by the hierarchical path. The hierarchy and betweenness centrality characterize the state of the market regarding the impact of crises. During crises, the non-financial company is established as the central node of the MST. However, before the crisis and during stable periods, the financial company is occupying the central node of the MST in the Korean and the U.S. stock markets. The changes in the network structure and the central node are good indicators of an upcoming crisis.

  16. An Examination of Herd Behavior in The Indonesian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adi Vithara Purba

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We examine herd behavior in Indonesian Stock Exchange, using daily and weekly stocks returnfrom 2007 until 2010. We employ the cross sectional standard deviation of returns (CSSD methodologydeveloped by Christie and Huang (1995 and cross sectional absolute dispersion (CSAD methodologydeveloped by Chang et al. (2000 to detect the presence of herd behavior. Using daily andweekly CSSD, we document the nonexistence of herding behavior in Indonesian stock market. However,using CSAD of either data frequency the result demonstrates the presence of herding behavior,particularly on big capitalization and liquid stocks. The result differs from Chang et al. (2000 whofind no different impact of herding behavior across size-based portfolios.

  17. Stock market integration and the speed of information transmission

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Černý, Alexandr; Koblas, M.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 58, 1-2 (2008), s. 2-20 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : stock market integration * market comovement * intra-day data Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.275, year: 2008 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1098_str_2_20_-_cerny-koblas.pdf

  18. Tax Revenue, Stock Market and Economic Growth of Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad Irfan Javaid Attari; Roshaiza Taha; Muhammad Imran Farooq

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of capital market and fiscal policy influences in determining the nexus of economic growth in Pakistan from July 2003 to July 2012. The authors utilize ADF unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, VECM test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis to test the relationship among tax revenue, stock market and economic growth in Pakistan. Granger causality analysis is used to answer questions whether “Does tax revenue cau...

  19. 136 Tax Revenue, Stock Market and Economic Growth of Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad Irfan Javaid Attari; Roshaiza Taha; Muhammad Imran Farooq

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of capital market and fiscal policy influences in determining the nexus of economic growth in Pakistan from July 2003 to July 2012. The authors utilize ADF unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, VECM test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis to test the relationship among tax revenue, stock market and economic growth in Pakistan. Granger causality analysis is used to answer questions whether “Does ...

  20. Comparing Neural Networks and ARMA Models in Artificial Stock Market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krtek, Jiří; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 28 (2011), s. 53-65 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : neural networks * vector ARMA * artificial market Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/krtek-comparing neural networks and arma models in artificial stock market.pdf

  1. Machine learning in sentiment reconstruction of the simulated stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goykhman, Mikhail; Teimouri, Ali

    2018-02-01

    In this paper we continue the study of the simulated stock market framework defined by the driving sentiment processes. We focus on the market environment driven by the buy/sell trading sentiment process of the Markov chain type. We apply the methodology of the Hidden Markov Models and the Recurrent Neural Networks to reconstruct the transition probabilities matrix of the Markov sentiment process and recover the underlying sentiment states from the observed stock price behavior. We demonstrate that the Hidden Markov Model can successfully recover the transition probabilities matrix for the hidden sentiment process of the Markov Chain type. We also demonstrate that the Recurrent Neural Network can successfully recover the hidden sentiment states from the observed simulated stock price time series.

  2. Cointegration-based financial networks study in Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Chengyi

    2014-05-01

    We propose a method based on cointegration instead of correlation to construct financial complex network in Chinese stock market. The network is obtained starting from the matrix of p-value calculated by Engle-Granger cointegration test between all pairs of stocks. Then some tools for filtering information in complex network are implemented to prune the complete graph described by the above matrix, such as setting a level of statistical significance as a threshold and Planar Maximally Filtered Graph. We also calculate Partial Correlation Planar Graph of these stocks to compare the above networks. Last, we analyze these directed, weighted and non-symmetric networks by using standard methods of network analysis, including degree centrality, PageRank, HITS, local clustering coefficient, K-shell and strongly and weakly connected components. The results shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms and driving forces in a financial market and deepen our understanding of financial complex network.

  3. When the U.S. Stock Market Becomes Extreme?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofiane Aboura

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Over the last three decades, the world economy has been facing stock market crashes, currency crisis, the dot-com and real estate bubble burst, credit crunch and banking panics. As a response, extreme value theory (EVT provides a set of ready-made approaches to risk management analysis. However, EVT is usually applied to standardized returns to offer more reliable results, but remains difficult to interpret in the real world. This paper proposes a quantile regression to transform standardized returns into theoretical raw returns making them economically interpretable. An empirical test is carried out on the S&P500 stock index from 1950 to 2013. The main results indicate that the U.S stock market becomes extreme from a price variation of ±1.5% and the largest one-day decline of the 2007–2008 period is likely, on average, to be exceeded one every 27 years.

  4. The Impact of Bank and Stock Market Developments on Economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper examines the short and long run impact of bank and stock market developments on growth in Zimbabwe using annual data from 1988-2012, inclusive. The study uses a financially-augmented production growth function and applies the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and the error correction ...

  5. Stock market price prediction using artificial neural network: an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper looks at the application of the artificial neural networks (ANN) in predicting stock market prices in Kenya. In particular the paper looks at the application of ANN in predicting future Equity Bank share prices using historical data. We have assumed that only previous prices affect future prices, then fitted ARIMA ...

  6. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over

  7. Time-varying synchronization of European stock markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Égert, B.; Kočenda, Evžen

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 40, č. 2 (2011), s. 394-407 ISSN 0377-7332 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : stock markets * intraday data * comovements Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.597, year: 2011

  8. Foreign news and spillovers in emerging European stock markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hanousek, Jan; Kočenda, E.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 1 (2011), s. 170-188 ISSN 0965-7576 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP403/11/0020; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : emerging European stock market s * foreign news * intraday data Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.631, year: 2011

  9. Foreign news and spillovers in emerging European stock markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hanousek, J.; Kočenda, Evžen

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 1 (2011), s. 170-188 ISSN 0965-7576 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : emerging European stock market s * foreign news * intraday data Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.631, year: 2011

  10. Development of stock markets, societal norms and legal institutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garretsen, Harry; Lensink, Robert; Sterken, Elmer

    2000-01-01

    We explain the development of stock markets by both legal and societal determinants and analyze the relevance of both determinants in the Levine-Zervos (1998) cross-sectional growth regressions. We argue that the legal indicators as developed by La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer and Vishny (1998)

  11. Does automation improve stock market efficiency in Ghana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The automation of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) in 2008, among other reforms, was expected to improve the efficiency of the market. The extent of this truism has, however, not been empirically established for the GSE. In this study, we attempt to assess the impact of the automation on the efficiency of the GSE within the ...

  12. The Price of Commodity Risk in Stock and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Boons (Martijn); F.A. de Roon (Frans); M. Szymanowska (Marta)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe find that commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. Following the financialization of commodities, investors hedge commodity price risk directly in the futures market, primarily via commodity index investments, whereas before they gained commodity exposure

  13. Stock Market Returns and Exchange Rates in Botswana | Lesotho ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, a negative relationship was found to exist between the stock market returns and the US dollar, British Pound and South African Rand. The Euro and the Japanese Yen showed a positive relationship. The findings of the paper also revealed that the speed of adjustment in the VECM is significant and relatively ...

  14. Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Nigerian Stock Market

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DrNneka

    crisis, and foreign investment crisis has a negative significant impact on the Nigerian stock market. Based on ... economic meltdown; the government should implement discriminatory income tax policy for companies .... boom in 2006, direct and portfolio investment recorded a growth rate of 126.6 percent and 11.48 percent ...

  15. Contagion as Domino Effect in Global Stock Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.D. Markwat (Thijs); H.J.W.G. Kole (Erik); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis paper shows that stock market contagion operates through a domino effect, where small crashes evolve into more severe crashes. Using a novel unifying framework we model the occurrence of local, regional and global crashes in terms of past occurrences of these different crashes and

  16. Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.H. van Bruggen (Gerrit); M. Spann (Martin); G.L. Lilien (Gary); B. Skiera (Bernd)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractWe study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of

  17. Company Fundamentals and Returns in the Nigerian Stock Market ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Research in National Development ... The paper examines the impact of company fundamentals on equity returns in the Nigerian stock market, using the panel regression technique which also incorporates two effects (the ... The result also reports the fixed effects of each firm on the constant term in the model.

  18. Style investing : behavioral explanations of stock market anomalies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouters, T.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract PhD-project The aim of this thesis is to explore the mechanisms of style investing. My project consists of two parts, each with an individual goal: 1. The first objective will be to analyze the implications of the dynamics of value and growth strategies for the US stock market. 2. The

  19. Do Economic Policy Decisions affect Stock Market Development in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    For equity investors not to easily transfer their investments in response to changes in macroeconomic policies among others, the study recommends good macroeconomic management. Keywords: Stock Market Development, Macroeconomic policy, Government spending, ADRL,. Ghana, West Africa. JEL Classification: G2 ...

  20. Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apergis, Nicholas; Miller, Stephen M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of oil price changes affect stock-market returns in a sample of eight countries - Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For each country, the analysis proceeds in two steps. First, modifying the procedure of Kilian [Not All Oil Price Shocks are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. American Economic Review.], we employ a vector error-correction or vector autoregressive model to decompose oil-price changes into three components: oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks. The last component relates to specific idiosyncratic features of the oil market, such as changes in the precautionary demand concerning the uncertainty about the availability of future oil supplies. Second, recovering the oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks from the first analysis, we then employ a vector autoregressive model to determine the effects of these structural shocks on the stock market returns in our sample of eight countries. We find that international stock market returns do not respond in a large way to oil market shocks. That is, the significant effects that exist prove small in magnitude. (author)

  1. Financial liberalization and stock market cross-correlation: MF-DCCA analysis based on Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Qingsong; Zhang, Shuhua; Lv, Dayong; Lu, Xinsheng

    2018-02-01

    Based on the implementation of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in China, this paper examines the effects of financial liberalization on stock market comovement using both multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) methods. Results based on MF-DFA confirm the multifractality of Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, and the market efficiency of Shanghai stock market increased after the implementation of this connect program. Besides, analysis based on MF-DCCA has verified the existence of persistent cross-correlation between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, and the cross-correlation gets stronger after the launch of this liberalization program. Finally, we find that fat-tail distribution is the main source of multifractality in the cross-correlations before the stock connect program, while long-range correlation contributes to the multifractality after this program.

  2. NEURAL NETWORKS FOR STOCK MARKET OPTION PRICING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Sannikov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The use of neural networks for non-linear models helps to understand where linear model drawbacks, coused by their specification, reveal themselves. This paper attempts to find this out. The objective of research is to determine the meaning of “option prices calculation using neural networks”. Materials and Methods: We use two kinds of variables: endogenous (variables included in the model of neural network and variables affecting on the model (permanent disturbance. Results: All data are divided into 3 sets: learning, affirming and testing. All selected variables are normalised from 0 to 1. Extreme values of income were shortcut. Discussion and Conclusions: Using the 33-14-1 neural network with direct links we obtained two sets of forecasts. Optimal criteria of strategies in stock markets’ option pricing were developed.

  3. 77 FR 52373 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ Stock Market, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-29

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ Stock Market, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change Relating to Membership in The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC August 23, 2012. Pursuant to Section... is hereby given that on August [[Page 52374

  4. The relevance of accounting in a stock market bubble : Evidence from internet IPO's

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bhattacharya, N.; Demers, E.; Joos, P.P.M.

    2010-01-01

    Prior research shows that accounting information is relevant for stock valuation, failure prediction, performance evaluation, optimal contracting, and other decision-making contexts in relatively stable market settings. By contrast, accounting's role during stock market bubbles such as those

  5. Dynamic asset trees in the US stock market: Structure variation and market phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Wei-Qiang; Yao, Shuang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yuan, Ying

    2017-01-01

    In this work, employing a moving window to scan through every stock price time series over a period from 2 January 1986 to 20 October 2015, we use cross-correlations to measure the interdependence between stock prices, and we construct a corresponding minimal spanning tree for 170 U.S. stocks in every given window. We show how the asset tree evolves over time and describe the dynamics of its normalized length, centrality measures, vertex degree and vertex strength distributions, and single- and multiple-step edge survival ratios. We find that the normalized tree length shows a tendency to decrease over the 30 years. The power-law of vertex degree or vertex strength distribution does not hold for all trees. The survival ratio analysis reveals an increased stability of the dependence structure of the stock market as time elapses. We then examine the relationship between tree structure variation and market phenomena, such as average, volatility and tail risk of stock (market) return. Our main observation is that the normalized tree length has a positive relationship with the level of stock market average return, and it responds negatively to the market return volatility and tail risk. Furthermore, the majority of stocks have their vertex degrees significantly positively correlated to their average return, and significantly negatively correlated to their return volatility and tail risk.

  6. Daily Market News Sentiment and Stock Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); A.K. Singh (Abhay)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIn recent years there has been a tremendous growth in the influx of news related to traded assets in international financial markets. This financial news is now available via print media but also through real-time online sources such as internet news and social media sources. The

  7. Market efficiency of traditional stock market indices and social responsible indices: the role of sustainability reporting

    OpenAIRE

    Henry Mynhardt; Inna Makarenko; Alex Plastun

    2017-01-01

    Corporate social responsibility, disclosed in sustainability reporting, influences the financial performance of companies. As a result, traditional stock market indices (TI) are expanded with the social responsible stock market indices (SRI). The aim of this study was to establish whether there are any differences in the behavior of the TI and SRI. To do this, the authors analyzed their efficiency. They used R/S analysis to calculate the Hurst exponent as a measure of persistence (long-term m...

  8. Macroeconomic Factors and the German Real Estate Market: A Stock-Market-Based Forecasting Experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-01-01

    Based on a recursive forecasting approach, this research studies whether macro- economic factors help to forecast excess returns on a real-estate-based German stock market index. Key findings are that macroeconomic factors are often included in the optimal forecasting model, that their relative importance often differs from their importance for forecasting a broad stock-market index, and that their informational content for forecasting excess returns seems to undergo temporal shifts. This res...

  9. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  10. U.S.Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Eugene White; Frederic Mishkin

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines fifteen historical episodes of stock market crashes and their aftermath in the United States over the last one hundred years. Our basic conclusion from studying these episodes is that financial instability is the key problem facing monetary policy makers and not stock market crashes, even if they reflect the possible bursting of a bubble. With a focus on financial stability rather than the stock market, the response of central banks to stock market fluctuations is more lik...

  11. US stock market crashes and their aftermath: Implications for monetary policy

    OpenAIRE

    Mishkin, Frederic S.; White, Eugene N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines fifteen historical episodes of stock market crashes and their aftermath in the United States over the last one hundred years. Our basic conclusion from studying these episodes is that financial instability is the key problem facing monetary policy makers and not stock market crashes, even if they reflect the possible bursting of a bubble. With a focus on financial stability rather than the stock market, the response of central banks to stock market fluctuations is more lik...

  12. Role Of Stock Market Development In Relationship Between Foreign Ownership And Profitability Of Asean Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Adhitya Agri Putra

    2017-01-01

    This research is aimed to examine effect of stock market development on relationship between foreign ownership and profitability in ASEAN. Research samples are 491 manufacture firms listed in stock market of Thailand Singapore Philippines Indonesia and Malaysia from 2012-2013. With regression analysis this research find that stock market development have effect on relationship between foreign ownership and profitability in ASEAN. Stock market development as a function of indicator of investor...

  13. Crude oil and stock markets. Stability, instability, and bubbles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, J. Isaac; Ratti, Ronald A.

    2009-01-01

    We analyze the long-run relationship between the world price of crude oil and international stock markets over 1971:1-2008:3 using a cointegrated vector error correction model with additional regressors. Allowing for endogenously identified breaks in the cointegrating and error correction matrices, we find evidence for breaks after 1980:5, 1988:1, and 1999:9. There is a clear long-run relationship between these series for six OECD countries for 1971:1-1980.5 and 1988:2-1999.9, suggesting that stock market indices respond negatively to increases in the oil price in the long run. During 1980.6-1988.1, we find relationships that are not statistically significantly different from either zero or from the relationships of the previous period. The expected negative long-run relationship appears to disintegrate after 1999.9. This finding supports a conjecture of change in the relationship between real oil price and real stock prices in the last decade compared to earlier years, which may suggest the presence of several stock market bubbles and/or oil price bubbles since the turn of the century. (author)

  14. Empirical Rationality in the Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raahauge, Peter

    2003-01-01

    Rational expectations models make stringent assumptions on the agent'sknowledge about the true model. This paper introduces a model in which therational agent realizes that using a given model involves approximation errors,and adjusts behavior accordingly. If the researcher accounts for this empi......Rational expectations models make stringent assumptions on the agent'sknowledge about the true model. This paper introduces a model in which therational agent realizes that using a given model involves approximation errors,and adjusts behavior accordingly. If the researcher accounts...... for this empiricalrationality on part of the agent, the resulting empirical model assignslikelihood to the data actually observed, unlike in the unmodified rational expectationscase. A Lucas (1978)-type asset pricing model which incorporatesempirical rationality is constructed and estimated using U.S. stock data....... Theequilibrium asset pricing function is seriously affected by the existence of approximationerrors and the descriptive properties and normative implicationsof the model are significantly improved. This suggests that investors do not| and should not | ignore approximation errors.Keywords: Approximation errors...

  15. Optimisation of fuel stocks under liberalisation of energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipkovs, P.; Sitenko, L.; Kashkarova, G.

    2001-01-01

    The paper discusses the influence of regional fuel stocks on the reliability of the energy sector's activities in a given region. The authors give classification of stocks by their purpose and describe their role in avoiding energy shortage situations. The fuel deficiency at a regional fuel market is shown in connection with the resulting loss for the national economy. The authors employ imitative modelling for investigation of fuel supply schemes acting in Latvia. They estimate possible expenses on the maintenance of fuels - such as gas, residual oil, and coal - for different variants of fuel delivery. (author)

  16. 76 FR 78325 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-16

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a Proposed... November 30, 2011. The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or ``Exchange'') filed with the Securities and... Change The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC proposes to amend Rule 7056 entitled ``NASDAQ Options Fee Disputes...

  17. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  18. Launching Markets for Stock Index Futures and Options: Case of Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Yu-Kyung Kim

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses experiences on launching Korea’s first-ever regulated derivatives market, namely stock index futures, on May 3, 1996, and subsequent opening of a stock index options market on July 7, 1997. It illustrates what went on as the Korea Stock Exchange was making a decision on its opening and describes the current status of the derivatives market.

  19. Stock market integration in the Latin American markets: further evidence from nonlinear modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Fredj Jawadi; Nicolas Million; Mohamed El Hedi Arouri

    2009-01-01

    International audience; This article studies the financial integration between the six main Latin American markets and the US market in a nonlinear framework. Using the threshold cointegration techniques of Hansen and Seo (2002), we show significant threshold stock market linkages between Mexico, Chile and the US. Thus, the dynamics of these markets depends simultaneously on local and global risk factors. More importantly, our results show an on-off threshold financial integration process tha...

  20. Can Regional Cross-listings Accelerate Stock Market Development? Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    International Monetary Fund

    2008-01-01

    This study analyzes the impact of regional cross-listing of stocks on the depth of the stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It analyzes data from 1990 to 2007 for a panel of 13 stock markets in SSA countries, only some of which have regional cross-listings. Using event study methodology, the paper finds significant positive effects in measures of stock market depth around regional cross-listing events. Overall, growth in the regional crosslisting of stocks facilitates stock market deepe...

  1. The Differences Between Stock Splits and Stock Dividends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bechmann, Ken L.; Raaballe, Johannes

    It is often asserted that stock splits and stock dividends are purely cosmetic events. However, many studies have documented several stock market effects associated with stock splits and stock dividends. This paper examines the effects of these two types of events for the Danish stock market...... different. Second, the positive stock market reaction is closely related to associated changes in a firm's payout policy, but the relationship varies for the two types of events. Finally, there is only very weak evidence for a change in the liquidity of the stock. On the whole, after controlling...... for the firm's payout policy, the results suggest that a stock split is a cosmetic event and that a stock dividend on its own is considered negative news....

  2. Scoring on the stock exchange? The effect of football matches on stock market returns : an event study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, B.; Peenstra, W.

    2009-01-01

    We analyse the effect of results of football matches on the stock market performance of football teams. We analyse 1274 matches of eight teams in the national and European competition during 2000-2004. We find that the stock market response is significant and positive for victories and negative for

  3. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS*

    Science.gov (United States)

    HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244

  4. The effect of Malaysia general election on stock market returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Rowland, Racquel

    2016-01-01

    During the latest episode of general election held in Malaysia, it is observed that the FBMKLCI index was lifted 62.52 points in a day soon after the announcement of election outcome. Moreover, the index registered a highest gain of 96.29 points in the middle of the intra-day trade. This suggests that investors who had got the right direction could make profitable intra-day trading the next trading day of the general election date. Results from statistical analysis uncover significant before-election-effect and after-election-effect from the most recent general elections held in Malaysia. Different subsets of macroeconomic variables are found to have significant role on stock market return depending on the market situation. Remarkably, when there was close fight between the two major political parties during the 2008 and 2013 election years, political uncertainty showed up its negative and significant role in influencing the stock market return. The major implication of these findings is that while investors may seek abnormal returns before and after the next general election, which is around the corner, they will have to pay attention on the influence of macroeconomic variables and political uncertainty on stock market return during the election year.

  5. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudomiet, Péter; Kézdi, Gábor; Willis, Robert J

    2011-01-01

    This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.

  6. Volatility of an Indian stock market: A random matrix approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulkarni, V.; Deo, N.

    2006-07-01

    We examine volatility of an Indian stock market in terms of aspects like participation, synchronization of stocks and quantification of volatility using the random matrix approach. Volatility pattern of the market is found using the BSE index for the three-year period 2000- 2002. Random matrix analysis is carried out using daily returns of 70 stocks for several time windows of 85 days in 2001 to (i) do a brief comparative analysis with statistics of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the matrix C of correlations between price fluctuations, in time regimes of different volatilities. While a bulk of eigenvalues falls within RMT bounds in all the time periods, we see that the largest (deviating) eigenvalue correlates well with the volatility of the index, the corresponding eigenvector clearly shows a shift in the distribution of its components from volatile to less volatile periods and verifies the qualitative association between participation and volatility (ii) observe that the Inverse participation ratio for the last eigenvector is sensitive to market fluctuations (the two quantities are observed to anti correlate significantly) (iii) set up a variability index, V whose temporal evolution is found to be significantly correlated with the volatility of the overall market index. MIRAMAR (author)

  7. Jump dynamics and volatility: Oil and the stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiou, Jer-Shiou; Lee, Yen-Hsien

    2009-01-01

    Our study distinguishes itself from the prior studies within the oil and financial literature by not only examining the asymmetric effects of oil prices on stock returns, but also exploring the importance of structure changes in this dependency relationship. We retrieve daily data on S and P 500 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil transactions covering the period from 1 January 1992 to 7 November 2006, and then transform the available data into daily returns. In contrast to the extant literature, in this study, consideration of expected, unexpected and negative unexpected oil price fluctuations is incorporated into the model of stock returns; we also focus on the ways in which oil price volatility, as opposed to general macroeconomic variables, can influence the stock market. We go on to implement the ARJI (Autoregressive Conditional Jump Intensity) model with structure changes, from which we conclude that high fluctuations in oil prices have asymmetric unexpected impacts on S and P 500 returns. (author)

  8. Analysis of network clustering behavior of the Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huan; Mai, Yong; Li, Sai-Ping

    2014-11-01

    Random Matrix Theory (RMT) and the decomposition of correlation matrix method are employed to analyze spatial structure of stocks interactions and collective behavior in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in China. The result shows that there exists prominent sector structures, with subsectors including the Real Estate (RE), Commercial Banks (CB), Pharmaceuticals (PH), Distillers&Vintners (DV) and Steel (ST) industries. Furthermore, the RE and CB subsectors are mostly anti-correlated. We further study the temporal behavior of the dataset and find that while the sector structures are relatively stable from 2007 through 2013, the correlation between the real estate and commercial bank stocks shows large variations. By employing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, we show that this anti-correlation behavior is closely related to the monetary and austerity policies of the Chinese government during the period of study.

  9. Intraday and intraweek trade anomalies on the Czech stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Deev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines intraday and intraweek market returns on the Czech stock market for the search of time and seasonal anomalies in its activities during the last ten years. Existence or absence of anomalies indicates the efficiency of the market. A group of regression models and GARCH (1,1 model is used for the analysis of daily and high frequency data of the PX index. Time varying nature of market seasonalities is revealed with the Czech equity market having implications for changing efficiency over the studied period, when the Czech Republic’s accession to the EU implied the increase in efficiency and the global financial crisis led to opposite results and regularities, which are not yet fully overcomed. Additionally, significant hour-of-the-day effect (open jump effect in the index returns is established.

  10. Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners.

  11. Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners. PMID:26368537

  12. THE CONNECTION BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Maria PECE

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the connection between economic growth and stock market performance in the case of an emerging economy, namely Romania, by using quarterly financial data, during the period 2000-2013. This topic is widely studied in the financial literature and seeks to provide an answer for the following questions: does economic growth influences the capital market, does capital market influences economic growth, or there is no connection between these variables. I have analyzed the long term relationship between economic growth and stock market for Romania, by applying Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality and Gregory Hansen cointegration test, which allows the presence of the structural breaks in the time series. The empirical results obtained highlighted that portfolio investments have a positive impact on economic growth and the GDP growth engages in turn, a long term positive capital markets return. The main conclusion of this study is that in the case of Romanian economy, is a bi-directional link between the economic growth and the capital market performance.

  13. Equation-based model for the stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Paloma O C; Atman, A P F; de Magalhães, A R Bosco

    2017-09-01

    We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

  14. Modeling the time-changing dependence in stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frezza, Massimiliano

    2012-01-01

    The time-changing dependence in stock markets is investigated by assuming the multifractional process with random exponent (MPRE) as model for actual log price dynamics. By modeling its functional parameter S(t, ω) via the square root process (S.R.) a twofold aim is obtained. From one hand both the main financial and statistical properties shown by the estimated S(t) are captured by surrogates, on the other hand this capability reveals able to model the time-changing dependence shown by stocks or indexes. In particular, a new dynamical approach to interpreter market mechanisms is given. Empirical evidences are offered by analysing the behaviour of the daily closing prices of a very known index, the Industrial Average Dow Jones (DJIA), beginning on March,1990 and ending on February, 2005.

  15. A CcP model of the stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimshon Bichler

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Most explanations of stock market booms and busts are based on contrasting the underlying ‘fundamental’ logic of the economy with the exogenous, non-economic factors that presumably distort it. Our paper offers a radically different model, examining the stock market not from the mechanical viewpoint of a distorted economy, but from the dialectical perspective of capitalized power. The model demonstrates that (1 the valuation of equities represents capitalized power; (2 capitalized power is dialectically intertwined with systemic fear; and (3 systemic fear and capitalized power are mediated through strategic sabotage. This triangular model, we posit, can offer a basis for examining the asymptotes, or limits, of capitalized power and the ways in which these asymptotes relate to the historical and ongoing transformation of the capitalist mode of power.

  16. Structure and dynamics of stock market in times of crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Longfeng; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

    2016-02-01

    Daily correlations among 322 S&P 500 constituent stocks are investigated by means of correlation-based (CB) network. By using the heterogeneous time scales, we identify global expansion and local clustering market behaviors during crises, which are mainly caused by community splits and inter-sector edge number decreases. The CB networks display distinctive community and sector structures. Graph edit distance is applied to capturing the dynamics of CB networks in which drastic structure reconfigurations can be observed during crisis periods. Edge statistics reveal the power-law nature of edges' duration time distribution. Despite the networks' strong structural changes during crises, we still find some long-duration edges that serve as the backbone of the stock market. Finally the dynamical change of network structure has shown its capability in predicting the implied volatility index (VIX).

  17. FINANCIAL RATIOS AND STOCK PRICES ON DEVELOPED CAPITAL MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOGDAN DIMA

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically tests for the relevance of a set of financial ratios designed to capture issuers’ financial performance for the dynamics of stock prices, on a dataset of quarterly values for 495 trading quotes from major European capital markets as well as from S&P 500 market covering a time span between 2003/1 and 2011/1. The research hypothesis is that financial ratios reflecting issuers’ financial health matter in the selection of portfolios’ structure. We tested this hypothesis in a GMM methodological framework and found that such relationship holds on long run, even if there appears to be some differences in the reactions of European and United States’ stocks to financial information.

  18. Anticipating Stock Market Movements with Google and Wikipedia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moat, Helen Susannah; Curme, Chester; Stanley, H. Eugene; Preis, Tobias

    Many of the trading decisions that have led to financial crises are captured by vast, detailed stock market datasets. Here, we summarize two of our recent studies which investigate whether Internet usage data contain traces of attempts to gather information before such trading decisions were taken. By analyzing changes in how often Internet users searched for financially related information on Google (Preis et al., Sci Rep 3:1684, 2013) and Wikipedia (Moat et al., Sci Rep 3:1801, 2013), patterns are found that may be interpreted as "early warning signs" of stock market moves. Our results suggest that online data may allow us to gain new insight into early information gathering stages of economic decision making.

  19. Equation-based model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Paloma O. C.; Atman, A. P. F.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco

    2017-09-01

    We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

  20. Investigating the Nonlinear Dynamics of Emerging and Developed Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Guhathakurta

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Financial time-series has been of interest of many statisticians and financial experts. Understanding the characteristic features of a financial-time series has posed some difficulties because of its quasi-periodic nature. Linear statistics can be applied to a periodic time series, but since financial time series is non-linear and non-stationary, analysis of its quasi periodic characteristics is not entirely possible with linear statistics. Thus, the study of financial series of stock market still remains a complex task having its specific requirements. In this paper keeping in mind the recent trends and developments in financial time series studies, we want to establish if there is any significant relationship existing between trading behavior of developing and developed markets. The study is conducted to draw conclusions on similarity or differences between developing economies, developed economies, developing-developed economy pairs. We take the leading stock market indices dataset for the past 15 years in those markets to conduct the study. First we have drawn probability distribution of the dataset to see if any graphical similarity exists. Then we perform quantitative techniques to test certain hypotheses. Then we proceed to implement the Ensemble Empirical Mode Distribution technique to draw out amplitude and phase of movement of index value each data set to compare at granular level of detail. Our findings lead us to conclude that the nonlinear dynamics of emerging markets and developed markets are not significantly different. This could mean that increasing cross market trading and involvement of global investment has resulted in narrowing the gap between emerging and developed markets. From nonlinear dynamics perspective we find no reason to distinguish markets into emerging and developed any more.

  1. Intraday price discovery in emerging European stock markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hanousek, Jan; Kočenda, Evžen

    -, č. 382 (2009), s. 1-35 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : price discovery * stock market s * intra-day data * European Union * macroeconomic news Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp382.pdf

  2. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  3. Limitations of scaling and universality in stock market data

    OpenAIRE

    Kertesz, Janos; Eisler, Zoltan

    2005-01-01

    We present evidence, that if a large enough set of high resolution stock market data is analyzed, certain analogies with physics -- such as scaling and universality -- fail to capture the full complexity of such data. Despite earlier expectations, the mean value per trade, the mean number of trades per minute and the mean trading activity do not show scaling with company capitalization, there is only a non-trivial monotonous dependence. The strength of correlations present in the time series ...

  4. Forecasting stock market averages to enhance profitable trading strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Haefke, Christian; Helmenstein, Christian

    1995-01-01

    In this paper we design a simple trading strategy to exploit the hypothesized distinct informational content of the arithmetic and geometric mean. The rejection of cointegration between the two stock market indicators supports this conjecture. The profits generated by this cheaply replicable trading scheme cannot be expected to persist. Therefore we forecast the averages using autoregressive linear and neural network models to gain a competitive advantage relative to other investors. Refining...

  5. The long-term stock market valuation of customer satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Aksoy, Lerzan

    2008-01-01

    Firm valuation has been an important domain of interest for finance. However, most financial models do not include customer-related metrics in this process. Studies in marketing have found that one particular customer metric, customer satisfaction, improves the ability to predict future cash flows, long-term financial measures, stock performance, and shareholder value. However, most of these studies predominantly employ models that are not directly used in finance practice. This article exten...

  6. Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiremath, Gourishankar S; Kumari, Jyoti

    2014-01-01

    This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency. G14; G12; C12.

  7. Trading in Target Stocks Before Takeover Announcements: An Analysis of Stock and Option Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Marcus Clements; Harminder Singh; Antonie Van Eekelen

    2007-01-01

    In this study we examine both informed trading and contraire trading preceding takeover announcements on US target firms. Our findings suggest that both informed trading and contraire trading exists within the period preceding takeover announcements on both the stock and option markets as evident through abnormal returns and trading volumes. In regard to contraire trading, this study investigates possible explanations for its existence including liquidity clustering, falsely informed trading ...

  8. MEASURES OF THE STATE FOR INTRODUCTION DEOFFSHORIZATION IN STOCK MARKET OF UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana Kiktenko

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to improve monitoring and control in the system of state regulation of the stock market and to develop practical recommendations for an integrated mechanism, which is aimed at stabilizing and improving the functioning of its state regulators. Methodology. The following research methods were used: analysis and synthesis – to identify the most important factors affecting the operation of the stock market, consolidation of trends and evaluation the effectiveness of individual measures of government regulation; statistical analysis, comparison and generalization – to study the effectiveness of the regulatory bodies of the stock market in Ukraine. Results. It’s necessary to introduce deoffshorization, which is a tool of economic mechanism of the development of state regulation of the stock market and optimal combination of the tax burden, comfortable business environment and the country’s stock market capitalization. Practical significance. Practical recommendations on the need to introduce deoffshorization in the stock market of Ukraine are seen as a tool of economic mechanism for further state regulation development of the stock market, used in the formation of proposals to introduce deoffshorization in the stock market in the Regulations of the National Commission on Securities and Stock Market. Value/originality. Implementation of the deoffshorization in the stock market will allow the State to strengthen the protection of investors’ rights, it is a strategic goal of Ukraine, as well as to strengthen the local stock market and increase its credibility among the population.

  9. Exchange rate volatility and its effect on stock market volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Kennedy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates empirically the effect of volatility of the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis the euro on U.S. stock market volatility while controlling for a number of drivers of stock return volatility. Using a GARCH(1, 1 model and using weekly data covering the period from the week of January 1, 1999 through the week of January 25, 2010, it is found that the 9/11 terrorist attack, bear markets, fluctuations in jobless claims, and negative equity market returns increase financial volatility. On the other hand, no conclusive results are found regarding the effect of fluctuations in M2, or incorrect expectations of changes in the federal funds target rate. Finally, it is found that when major drivers of financial volatility are controlled for, increased exchange rate volatility exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on the volatility of stock returns. Monetary policymakers need to take this effect into account when formulating exchange rate actions within the prevailing managed float.

  10. TRUMP’S ELECTED SHOCK EFFECT IN INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vietha Devia Sagita

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available It is inevitable that the presidential election in the United States can caused stock market fluctuations both in the United States alone as well as in other countries, for example Indonesia. Using regression method and chow test this study aimed at the effects before and after the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Using the data series shares the value of DJIA and ICI, this study analyzes the emergence of shock due to the change of president in United Staten share prices at the stock market in Indonesia. Based on the chow test result, the election of Donald Trump can provide a shock effect on ICI as well as DJIA, because the value of 6.917956 F count is larger than the value of 3,93 F table. DJIA positive influence on the value of ICI shares due to the election of Donald Trump is significantly below 5% at 1855.782. Meanwhile, before the election of Donald Trump DJIA has a negative influence on the ICI for - 1407.59. Based on that we can conclude that the election of Donald Trump bring a good impact on the growth of the Indonesian stock market.

  11. Hot money and China's stock market volatility: Further evidence using the GARCH-MIDAS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.

  12. Stock return distributions: tests of scaling and universality from three distinct stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plerou, Vasiliki; Stanley, H Eugene

    2008-03-01

    We examine the validity of the power-law tails of the distributions of stock returns P{R>x} ~ x(-zeta(R)) using trade-by-trade data from three distinct markets. We find that both the negative as well as the positive tails of the distributions of returns display power-law tails, with mutually consistent values of zeta(R) approximately 3 for all three markets. We perform similar analyses of the related microstructural variable, the number of trades N identical with N(Deltat) over time interval Deltat, and find a power-law tail for the cumulative distribution P{N>x} ~ x(-zeta(N)), with values of zeta(N) that are consistent across all three markets analyzed. Our analysis of U.S. stocks shows that the exponent values zeta(R) and zeta(N) do not display systematic variations with market capitalization or industry sector. Moreover, since zeta(R) and zeta(N) are remarkably similar for all three markets, our results support the possibility that the exponents zeta(R) and zeta(N) are universal.

  13. The Brazilian Stock Market in the Pre-Ibovespa Era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Zoratto Sanvicente

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper reports the availability of equity market and government bond indices for the 1950-1967 in Brazil, before the introduction of the Bovespa index. Nominal monthly returns are computed, and the historical market risk premium is determined. A 1.86% monthly average is obtained, which compares to 1.69% per month for the period from January, 1968 to October, 2013. The rates of return of both market segments are then adjusted for the change in the General Price Index – Domestic Availability (IGP-DI. It is observed that neither stocks nor government bonds provided sufficient protection against inflation. The paper’s main contribution to the literature, however, is the creation of the two index series, adding over 17 years of data to the information commonly used in the analysis of Brazilian capital markets.

  14. Parallel trade of pharmaceuticals: The Danish market for statins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Susan J

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates and quantifies the impact of parallel trade in markets for pharmaceuticals. The paper develops a structural model of demand and supply using data on price, sales, and the characteristics of statins in Denmark and simulates outcomes under a complete ban of parallel imports, keeping other regulatory schemes unchanged. There are two sets of key results. The first set focuses on price effects. On average, prices increase more in markets where the molecule has lost patent protection; wholesale prices for both generic and original products increase after competition from parallel importers is removed, but the final price paid by consumers (after deducting reimbursement) increases more for original products than for generics because most changes in wholesale prices are absorbed by the prevailing reimbursement rules. The second set of results reports the effects on market participants. My model takes into consideration consumers' preferences, allowing them to substitute between products. Prohibiting parallel imports induces consumers to substitute towards original products for which they have stronger preferences. In sum, banning parallel imports leads to (a) an increase in variable profits for original producers and a decrease for generic firms, (b) an increase in governmental health-care expenditures, and (c) a decrease in the welfare of Danish patients and firms. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. On the integration of financial markets: How strong is the evidence from five international stock markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sónia R.

    2015-07-01

    This paper examines the integration of financial markets using data from five international stock markets in the context of globalization. The theoretical basis of this study relies on the price theory and the Law of One Price, which was adjusted to the framework of financial markets. When price levels are nonstationary, cointegration and the error correction model constitute a powerful tool for the empirical examination of market integration. The error correction model provides a fully dynamic framework that allows to separating the long and the short run effects of the integration process. A dataset encompassing the daily stock price series of the PSI 20 (Portugal), IBEX 35 (Spain), FTSE 100 (UK), NIKKEI 225 (Japan) and SP 500 (US) indices from January 4th 1999 to September 19th 2014 is employed. The results highlight that these five stock markets are linked together by just one long-run relationship, although short-run movements are also present, which causes distinct deviations from the long-run equilibrium relationship. Endogeneity prevails in the system as a whole. While market integration in the sense of the Law of One Price holds, pairwise full price transmission has limited evidence. The results therefore show that stock market price movements are highly nonlinear and complex.

  16. THE GREGARIOUS BEHAVIOR OF INVESTORS FROM BALTIC STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pece Andreea Maria

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this research is to investigate market participants’ gregarious behaviour in Baltic stock markets, namely Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia during the period January 2003-December 2013. The herding behaviour derives from the investors’ irrationality, who trade financial assets based on their positive expectations about prices future growth, generating manias among other market participants, thus ignoring the real return rates and the risk levels of their investments.The investors’ irrational behaviour is influenced by actions, feelings and impulses that are intertwined: mimicry, fear, trust, greed, optimism, pessimism, euphoria, panic. These features highlight an erroneous perception of investors in point of unsustained increase in prices, which has been generated by the stock prices deviations from their fundamental value.Under these premises, optimism, overreaction and speculative bubbles are appearing on the market and may constitute triggering factors of a financial crash.The probability of the occurrence of the speculative bubbles and financial crashes is influenced by the continuous entry on the market of new investors and less informed participants, which often act based on impulse, following a benchmark, without considering their own analysis and information that they hold. The existence of a “collective behaviour” of the investors, which is manifested by their tendency to imitate other market participants actions and to “follow the herd”, so ignoring their own beliefs, may increase market sensitivity to shocks and the probability of the occurrence of the systemic risk.In order to identify the investors’ herding behaviour, I have applied an adjusted CSSD model proposed by (Yao, Ma, Peng He, 2014, which implies the inclusion of two additional variables, the first one, to reduce the effect of multicollinearity and a second one, a lag term of the dependent variable, in order to improve the power of the

  17. An analysis of stock market efficiency: Developed vs Islamic stock markets using MF-DFA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizvi, Syed Aun R.; Dewandaru, Ginanjar; Bacha, Obiyathulla I.; Masih, Mansur

    An efficient market has been theoretically proven to be a key component for effective and efficient resource allocation in an economy. This paper incorporates econophysics with Efficient Market Hypothesis to undertake a comparative analysis of Islamic and developed countries’ markets by extending the understanding of their multifractal nature. By applying the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) we calculated the generalized Hurst exponents, multifractal scaling exponents and generalized multifractal dimensions for 22 broad market indices. The findings provide a deeper understanding of the markets in Islamic countries, where they have traces of highly efficient performance particularly in crisis periods. A key finding is the empirical evidence of the impact of the ‘stage of market development’ on the efficiency of the market. If Islamic countries aim to improve the efficiency of resource allocation, an important area to address is to focus, among others, on enhancing the stage of market development.

  18. An analysis of market shares on the Danish alcohol market using unobserved components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milhøj, Anders

    2009-01-01

    The Danish alcohol market has three types of alcohol: Beer, Wine and Spirits. The market share of wine has doubled over a 25 year period, while the market share of beer has been declining and the market share of spirits is generally low and fluctuating. In recent years the trending behavior has...... however changed, most likely because of changes in taxation on spirits. In the paper these market shares are analyzed by unobserved components models using Proc Ucm as models with time varying trends etc. are well suited for this type of data. In Denmark the relative prices for the three types of alcohol...... have changed radically because of changes in the taxation and hence the relative prices provide good independent variables in regressions. In SAS version 9.2 Proc Ucm has been extended with a Randomreg statement, that allows for the varying regression coefficients. One result is that the effect...

  19. On the dynamics of the stocks of blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis L.) in the Danish Wadden Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munch-Petersen, Sten; Kristensen, Per Sand

    2001-01-01

    As biological basis for the monitoring programme for the commercially exploited stock(s) of mussels (Mytilus edulis L.) in the Danish Wadden Sea, samples of mussels have been collected regularly since 1986, both from sub-tidal and inter- tidal mussel beds. These samples are the basis...... parameters. By applying these in the Beverton & Holt model, estimates of average biomass and annual production (P) of the mussels have been obtained together with possible fisheries yields from the beds. The growth and mortality parameters and the figures for annual production and P/B are compared...... with figures from other investigations. These analyses have been the basis for annual assessments of the mussel stocks, which again are used in the current management of mussel fishery in the Danish Wadden Sea....

  20. The stock market performance of the central banks of Belgium and Japan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kabir, Mohammed Rezaul; Goldberg, Lawrence G.

    2002-01-01

    Most central banks issue stock that is held by the government and/or commercial banks and is not tradable. In contrast, stocks of the central banks of Belgium and Japan are traded on the Brussels and Tokyo stock exchanges. The purpose of the paper is to examine this unique phenomenon of stock market

  1. Symmetric co-movement between Malaysia and Japan stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razak, Ruzanna Ab; Ismail, Noriszura

    2017-04-01

    The copula approach is a flexible tool known to capture linear, nonlinear, symmetric and asymmetric dependence between two or more random variables. It is often used as a co-movement measure between stock market returns. The information obtained from copulas such as the level of association of financial market during normal and bullish and bearish markets phases are useful for investment strategies and risk management. However, the study of co-movement between Malaysia and Japan markets are limited, especially using copulas. Hence, we aim to investigate the dependence structure between Malaysia and Japan capital markets for the period spanning from 2000 to 2012. In this study, we showed that the bivariate normal distribution is not suitable as the bivariate distribution or to present the dependence between Malaysia and Japan markets. Instead, Gaussian or normal copula was found a good fit to represent the dependence. From our findings, it can be concluded that simple distribution fitting such as bivariate normal distribution does not suit financial time series data, whose characteristics are often leptokurtic. The nature of the data is treated by ARMA-GARCH with heavy tail distributions and these can be associated with copula functions. Regarding the dependence structure between Malaysia and Japan markets, the findings suggest that both markets co-move concurrently during normal periods.

  2. What stock market returns to expect for the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, P A

    2000-01-01

    In evaluating proposals for reforming Social Security that involve stock investments, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) has generally used a 7.0 percent real return for stocks. The 1994-96 Advisory Council specified that OCACT should use that return in making its 75-year projections of investment-based reform proposals. The assumed ultimate real return on Treasury bonds of 3.0 percent implies a long-run equity premium of 4.0 percent. There are two equity-premium concepts: the realized equity premium, which is measured by the actual rates of return; and the required equity premium, which investors expect to receive for being willing to hold available stocks and bonds. Over the past two centuries, the realized premium was 3.5 percent on average, but 5.2 percent for 1926 to 1998. Some critics argue that the 7.0 percent projected stock returns are too high. They base their arguments on recent developments in the capital market, the current high value of the stock market, and the expectation of slower economic growth. Increased use of mutual funds and the decline in their costs suggest a lower required premium, as does the rising fraction of the American public investing in stocks. The size of the decrease is limited, however, because the largest cost savings do not apply to the very wealthy and to large institutional investors, who hold a much larger share of the stock market's total value than do new investors. These trends suggest a lower equity premium for projections than the 5.2 percent of the past 75 years. Also, a declining required premium is likely to imply a temporary increase in the realized premium because a rising willingness to hold stocks tends to increase their price. Therefore, it would be a mistake during a transition period to extrapolate what may be a temporarily high realized return. In the standard (Solow) economic growth model, an assumption of slower long-run growth lowers the marginal product of capital if the savings rate is constant

  3. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

  4. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

  5. Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cong, Ronggang; Wei, Yi-Ming; Jiao, Jian-Ling

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing...

  6. Hidden temporal order unveiled in stock market volatility variance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Shapira

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available When analyzed by standard statistical methods, the time series of the daily return of financial indices appear to behave as Markov random series with no apparent temporal order or memory. This empirical result seems to be counter intuitive since investor are influenced by both short and long term past market behaviors. Consequently much effort has been devoted to unveil hidden temporal order in the market dynamics. Here we show that temporal order is hidden in the series of the variance of the stocks volatility. First we show that the correlation between the variances of the daily returns and means of segments of these time series is very large and thus cannot be the output of random series, unless it has some temporal order in it. Next we show that while the temporal order does not show in the series of the daily return, rather in the variation of the corresponding volatility series. More specifically, we found that the behavior of the shuffled time series is equivalent to that of a random time series, while that of the original time series have large deviations from the expected random behavior, which is the result of temporal structure. We found the same generic behavior in 10 different stock markets from 7 different countries. We also present analysis of specially constructed sequences in order to better understand the origin of the observed temporal order in the market sequences. Each sequence was constructed from segments with equal number of elements taken from algebraic distributions of three different slopes.

  7. Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

  8. Market impact and trading profile of hidden orders in stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moro, Esteban; Vicente, Javier; Moyano, Luis G; Gerig, Austin; Farmer, J Doyne; Vaglica, Gabriella; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N

    2009-12-01

    We empirically study the market impact of trading orders. We are specifically interested in large trading orders that are executed incrementally, which we call hidden orders. These are statistically reconstructed based on information about market member codes using data from the Spanish Stock Market and the London Stock Exchange. We find that market impact is strongly concave, approximately increasing as the square root of order size. Furthermore, as a given order is executed, the impact grows in time according to a power law; after the order is finished, it reverts to a level of about 0.5-0.7 of its value at its peak. We observe that hidden orders are executed at a rate that more or less matches trading in the overall market, except for small deviations at the beginning and end of the order.

  9. Is there any overtrading in stock markets? The moderating role of big five personality traits and gender in a unilateral trend stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jian; Wang, Haocheng; Wang, Limin; Liu, Shuyi

    2014-01-01

    Overtrading is a common anomaly among stock investors. This study examines the relationship between overtrading and investment returns and the impact of the Big Five traits and gender on overtrading in a unilateral trend stock market using a simulated stock investment system. The data were derived from a sample of undergraduates from six universities who performed in a simulated stock investment situation and had their personality traits measured by the Big Five Personality Questionnaire. The results indicate that: (1) Overtrading was significant in rising stock markets, but not significant in falling markets. (2) The degree of female investors who overtraded was significant in rising markets. (3) The degree of overtrading investors who were high in extroversion or agreeableness was significant in rising markets. The implications of these results for more effective investment strategies are discussed.

  10. Is there any overtrading in stock markets? The moderating role of big five personality traits and gender in a unilateral trend stock market.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Zhang

    Full Text Available Overtrading is a common anomaly among stock investors. This study examines the relationship between overtrading and investment returns and the impact of the Big Five traits and gender on overtrading in a unilateral trend stock market using a simulated stock investment system. The data were derived from a sample of undergraduates from six universities who performed in a simulated stock investment situation and had their personality traits measured by the Big Five Personality Questionnaire. The results indicate that: (1 Overtrading was significant in rising stock markets, but not significant in falling markets. (2 The degree of female investors who overtraded was significant in rising markets. (3 The degree of overtrading investors who were high in extroversion or agreeableness was significant in rising markets. The implications of these results for more effective investment strategies are discussed.

  11. Is There Any Overtrading in Stock Markets? The Moderating Role of Big Five Personality Traits and Gender in a Unilateral Trend Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jian; Wang, Haocheng; Wang, Limin; Liu, Shuyi

    2014-01-01

    Overtrading is a common anomaly among stock investors. This study examines the relationship between overtrading and investment returns and the impact of the Big Five traits and gender on overtrading in a unilateral trend stock market using a simulated stock investment system. The data were derived from a sample of undergraduates from six universities who performed in a simulated stock investment situation and had their personality traits measured by the Big Five Personality Questionnaire. The results indicate that: (1) Overtrading was significant in rising stock markets, but not significant in falling markets. (2) The degree of female investors who overtraded was significant in rising markets. (3) The degree of overtrading investors who were high in extroversion or agreeableness was significant in rising markets. The implications of these results for more effective investment strategies are discussed. PMID:24475235

  12. Quantifying the relationship between financial news and the stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alanyali, Merve; Moat, Helen Susannah; Preis, Tobias

    2013-12-20

    The complex behavior of financial markets emerges from decisions made by many traders. Here, we exploit a large corpus of daily print issues of the Financial Times from 2(nd) January 2007 until 31(st) December 2012 to quantify the relationship between decisions taken in financial markets and developments in financial news. We find a positive correlation between the daily number of mentions of a company in the Financial Times and the daily transaction volume of a company's stock both on the day before the news is released, and on the same day as the news is released. Our results provide quantitative support for the suggestion that movements in financial markets and movements in financial news are intrinsically interlinked.

  13. Contrarian Investment Philosophy in the American Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bondo Hansen, Kristian

    2015-01-01

    investment advice was aimed at so-called small investors rather than well-established market practitioners. Emerging out of late-nineteenth- and early-twentieth-century debates about public participation in the stock market, the contrarians expanded on a widely held (amongst financial writers) scepticism...... about the investment and speculation skills (or lack thereof) of the masses and adopted ideas from the theoretical discipline of crowd psychology, whereby they positioned the mass (i.e. the crowd) in opposition to the successful investor. I argue that despite its idiosyncrasies, the contrarians......This paper contributes to the understanding of the role of crowds in the financial market by examining the historical origins and theoretical underpinnings of contrarian investment philosophy. Developed in non-scientific, practice-oriented ‘how to’ handbooks in 1920s and 1930s America, contrarian...

  14. Fluctuations of trading volume in a stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Byoung Hee; Lee, Kyoung Eun; Hwang, Jun Kyung; Lee, Jae Woo

    2009-03-01

    We consider the probability distribution function of the trading volume and the volume changes in the Korean stock market. The probability distribution function of the trading volume shows double peaks and follows a power law, P(V/)∼( at the tail part of the distribution with α=4.15(4) for the KOSPI (Korea composite Stock Price Index) and α=4.22(2) for the KOSDAQ (Korea Securities Dealers Automated Quotations), where V is the trading volume and is the monthly average value of the trading volume. The second peaks originate from the increasing trends of the average volume. The probability distribution function of the volume changes also follows a power law, P(Vr)∼Vr-β, where Vr=V(t)-V(t-T) and T is a time lag. The exponents β depend on the time lag T. We observe that the exponents β for the KOSDAQ are larger than those for the KOSPI.

  15. Role Of Stock Market Development In Relationship Between Foreign Ownership And Profitability Of Asean Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adhitya Agri Putra

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This research is aimed to examine effect of stock market development on relationship between foreign ownership and profitability in ASEAN. Research samples are 491 manufacture firms listed in stock market of Thailand Singapore Philippines Indonesia and Malaysia from 2012-2013. With regression analysis this research find that stock market development have effect on relationship between foreign ownership and profitability in ASEAN. Stock market development as a function of indicator of investor mood legal and policy making and management practices support foreign shareholder role in profits increasing. This research shows new evidence of role of macro economics level factor which is stock market development in ASEAN countries as foreign owners role supporting in profits increasing. Stock market development is important factor to answer inconsistencies of role of foreign owner since foreign ownership will be more growing up in open market between countries in profits increasing.

  16. Energy prices, volatility, and the stock market. Evidence from the Eurozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oberndorfer, Ulrich

    2009-01-01

    This paper constitutes a first analysis on stock returns of energy corporations from the Eurozone. It focuses on the relationship between energy market developments and the pricing of European energy stocks. According to our results, oil price hikes negatively impact on stock returns of European utilities. However, they lead to an appreciation of oil and gas stocks. Interestingly, forecastable oil market volatility negatively affects European oil and gas stocks, implying profit opportunities for strategic investors. In contrast, the gas market does not play a role for the pricing of Eurozone energy stocks. Coal price developments affect the stock returns of European utilities. However, this effect is small compared to oil price impacts, although oil is barely used for electricity generation in Europe. This suggests that for the European stock market, the oil price is the main indicator for energy price developments as a whole. (author)

  17. Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sensoy, Ahmet; Tabak, Benjamin M.

    2015-10-01

    This paper proposes a new efficiency index to model time-varying inefficiency in stock markets. We focus on European stock markets and show that they have different degrees of time-varying efficiency. We observe that the 2008 global financial crisis has an adverse effect on almost all EU stock markets. However, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has a significant adverse effect only on the markets in France, Spain and Greece. For the late members, joining EU does not have a uniform effect on stock market efficiency. Our results have important implications for policy makers, investors, risk managers and academics.

  18. Interactions between the Real Economy and the Stock Market: A Simple Agent-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Westerhoff

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop a simple behavioral macromodel to study interactions between the real economy and the stock market. The real economy is represented by a Keynesian-type goods market approach while the setup for the stock market includes heterogeneous speculators. Using a mixture of analytical and numerical tools we find, for instance, that speculators may create endogenous boom-bust dynamics in the stock market which, by spilling over into the real economy, can cause lasting fluctuations in economic activity. However, fluctuations in economic activity may, by shaping the firms' fundamental values, also have an impact on the dynamics of the stock market.

  19. Efficiency of Crobex and Crobex10 Stock Market Indicies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armin Habibovic

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The work of Haugen and Baker (1991 and Grinold (1992 has shown that market capitalisation-weighted indices are not mean-variance efficient. Further research by Amenc, Goltz, and Le Sourd (2006 proves that even naïve equal weighting can offer a better risk to return trade-off to investors in the developed markets. Based on earlier research findings of Zoricic, Dolinar, and Kozul (2014 and Dolinar, Zoricic and Kozul (2017 for the Croatian market which demonstrated that outperforming the cap-weighted index in an illiquid and undeveloped market is much more challenging the aim of this paper is to assess the efficiency of both CROBEX and CROBEX10 stock market indices. Efficient frontier was derived based on historical data (“ex post” for 5 revisions for each index. The distance from the efficient frontier was calculated revealing weaker efficiency but also greater diversification opportunities in the case of the broader CROBEX index. However, lower efficiency gains and higher estimation error in emerging market environment reduce significantly the out-ofsample potential for efficient index benchmarks. The analysis conducted in this paper makes it hard to assess if such potential truly exists but provides an insight based on calculation of indifference transaction costs following the work of Amenc et al. (2011.

  20. An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Returns And Volatility: The Case Of Stock Markets From Central And Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okičić Jasmina

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of stock returns in the case of stock markets from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE, focusing on the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. Since there is relatively little empirical research on the volatility of stock returns in underdeveloped stock markets, with even fewer studies on markets in the transitional economies of the CEE region, this paper is designed to shed some light on the econometric modelling of the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns from this region. The results presented in this paper provide confirmatory evidence that ARIMA and GARCH processes provide parsimonious approximations of mean and volatility dynamics in the case of the selected stock markets. There is overwhelming evidence corroborating the existence of a leverage effect, meaning that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks do. Since financial decisions are generally based upon the trade-off between risk and return, the results presented in this paper will provide valuable information in decision making for those who are planning to invest in stock markets from the CEE region.

  1. Stock market speculation: Spontaneous symmetry breaking of economic valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2000-09-01

    Firm foundation theory estimates a security's firm fundamental value based on four determinants: expected growth rate, expected dividend payout, the market interest rate and the degree of risk. In contrast, other views of decision-making in the stock market, using alternatives such as human psychology and behavior, bounded rationality, agent-based modeling and evolutionary game theory, expound that speculative and crowd behavior of investors may play a major role in shaping market prices. Here, we propose that the two views refer to two classes of companies connected through a "phase transition". Our theory is based on (1) the identification of the fundamental parity symmetry of prices (p→-p), which results from the relative direction of payment flux compared to commodity flux and (2) the observation that a company's risk-adjusted growth rate discounted by the market interest rate behaves as a control parameter for the observable price. We find a critical value of this control parameter at which a spontaneous symmetry-breaking of prices occurs, leading to a spontaneous valuation in absence of earnings, similarly to the emergence of a spontaneous magnetization in Ising models in absence of a magnetic field. The low growth rate phase is described by the firm foundation theory while the large growth rate phase is the regime of speculation and crowd behavior. In practice, while large "finite-time horizon" effects round off the predicted singularities, our symmetry-breaking speculation theory accounts for the apparent over-pricing and the high volatility of fast growing companies on the stock markets.

  2. Financial links between the stock market and the debt securities market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Eduardo de Luna e Almeida Santos

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to measure the endogenous relationship between stock and bond markets. To recover the structural form of this relationship, the author applied the method of identification through heteroskedasticity. Both coefficients were found to be negative which is consistent with the notion that, given an opportunity cost of capital, the returns move in opposite directions in order to promote the equilibrium of the capital flow. However, only the coefficient that measures the impact of bond market over stock markets was significantly different from zero. Thus, the intensity of this relationship also depends on the relative size of the markets under study.

  3. Fractal stock markets: International evidence of dynamical (in)efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Sergio; Frezza, Massimiliano

    2017-07-01

    The last systemic financial crisis has reawakened the debate on the efficient nature of financial markets, traditionally described as semimartingales. The standard approaches to endow the general notion of efficiency of an empirical content turned out to be somewhat inconclusive and misleading. We propose a topological-based approach to quantify the informational efficiency of a financial time series. The idea is to measure the efficiency by means of the pointwise regularity of a (stochastic) function, given that the signature of a martingale is that its pointwise regularity equals 12. We provide estimates for real financial time series and investigate their (in)efficient behavior by comparing three main stock indexes.

  4. Fractal stock markets: International evidence of dynamical (in)efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Sergio; Frezza, Massimiliano

    2017-07-01

    The last systemic financial crisis has reawakened the debate on the efficient nature of financial markets, traditionally described as semimartingales. The standard approaches to endow the general notion of efficiency of an empirical content turned out to be somewhat inconclusive and misleading. We propose a topological-based approach to quantify the informational efficiency of a financial time series. The idea is to measure the efficiency by means of the pointwise regularity of a (stochastic) function, given that the signature of a martingale is that its pointwise regularity equals 1/2 . We provide estimates for real financial time series and investigate their (in)efficient behavior by comparing three main stock indexes.

  5. Soccer and stock market risk: empirical evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berument, M Hakan; Ceylan, Nildag Basak

    2013-06-01

    There is an emerging but important literature on the effects of sport events such as soccer on stock market returns. After a soccer team's win, agents discount future events more favorably and increase risk tolerance. Similarly, after a loss, risk tolerance decreases. This paper directly assesses risk tolerance after a sports event by using daily data from the three major soccer teams in Turkey (Beşiktaşç Fenerbahge and Galatasaray). Results provide evidence that risk tolerance increases after a win, but similar patterns were not found after a loss.

  6. Evidence of the overconfidence bias in the Egyptian stock market in different market states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayman H. Metwally

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Traditional finance theories fail to explain several anomalies observed in security markets. High levels of market turnover are among the most challenging market puzzles that have been documented in many security markets. Several studies assert the correlation between past market return and current market turnover. Behavioral finance theories assume that overconfidence bias is the reason behind this relation. Hence, this paper aims to study the impact of overconfidence – a behavioral bias stemming from the second building block of behavioral finance “cognitive psychology” and affecting traders’ beliefs and thereby their trading behavior in form of excessive trading. DeBondt and Tahler (1995. The study tests the overconfidence bias in the Egyptian Stock market during the period from 2002 till 2012 on the aggregate market level trough examining the relation between market returns and market turnover in different market states, seeking to document or deny whether overconfidence bias encourages investors to trade or not . The whole period is divided into four sub periods; two tranquil upward trending (2005-2005 and (2005-2008 and two volatile and down ward trending (financial crisis 2008-2010 and the (Egyptian Revolution Period 2010-2012 A quantitative research using secondary data and applying time series statistical techniques is designed. The research is following Statman et al. (2006 methodology. Time series analysis, which is based on four statistical techniques; mainly Vector Auto Regression, Optimal Lag Selection, Impulse Response Function and Granger Causality Tests are being used. Market Turnover ratios are used as proxies for overconfidence. The research finds a significant impact of past market return on current turnover in lag1, then turns negative in lag 2, and returns back positive in lag3, then remains positive and significant until lag5. This is in line with the overconfidence and self-attribution theory of Denial et al

  7. 76 FR 3188 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-19

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change Relating to Routing Fees for the NASDAQ Options Market January 12, 2011. Pursuant to... is hereby given that on January 6, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or ``Exchange...

  8. The long-term memory analysis of industrial indices of the Chinese stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yong, L

    2008-01-01

    The main work of this paper is to apply the fractional market theory and time series analysis for analyzing various industrial indices of the Chinese stock market by rescaling range analysis. Hurst index and the long-term memory of price change in Chinese stock market are studied

  9. Are Vietnam and Chinese stock markets out of the US contagion effect in extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Cuong; Ishaq Bhatti, M.; Henry, Darren

    2017-08-01

    This paper employs Chi-plots, Kendall (K)-plots and three different copula functions to empirically examine the tail dependence between the US stock market and stock markets in Vietnam and China in order to test contagion effects pre- and post- the US subprime mortgage crisis. The results based on data between 2003 and 2011 indicate the presence of left tail dependence before and after the crisis suggesting no change in dependence structure, but there exists stronger left tail dependence between the US and Vietnam stock markets. It is observed that the US and Vietnam stock markets are more prone to crashing than booming together. For the Chinese market, the US and Shanghai stock markets exhibit left tail dependence before the crisis, but no evidence of post-crisis tail dependency. On the contrary, the Shenzhen stock market is independent of the US market before and after the crisis which implies that an extreme event in the US market is less likely to influence the Shenzhen stock market. This suggests that there is significant potential for risk diversification by investing in the Shenzhen market by US investors after the financial crisis. These results have not been documented in the existing literature and provide a new insight into risk diversification between the two important Asian emerging stock markets.

  10. Relationships among energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy: evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Rong-Gang; Shen, Shaochuan

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market "underreacting." The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market.

  11. Effects of daylight-saving time changes on stock market returns and stock market volatility: rebuttal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamstra, Mark J; Kramer, Lisa A; Levi, Maurice D

    2013-02-01

    In a 2011 reply to our 2010 comment in this journal, Berument and Dogen maintained their challenge to the existence of the negative daylight-saving effect in stock returns reported by Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi in 2000. Unfortunately, in their reply, Berument and Dogen ignored all of the points raised in the comment, failing even to cite the Kamstra, et al. comment. Berument and Dogen continued to use inappropriate estimation techniques, over-parameterized models, and low-power tests and perhaps most surprisingly even failed to replicate results they themselves reported in their previous paper, written by Berument, Dogen, and Onar in 2010. The findings reported by Berument and Dogen, as well as by Berument, Dogen, and Onar, are neither well-supported nor well-reasoned. We maintain our original objections to their analysis, highlight new serious empirical and theoretical problems, and emphasize that there remains statistically significant evidence of an economically large negative daylight-saving effect in U.S. stock returns. The issues raised in this rebuttal extend beyond the daylight-saving effect itself, touching on methodological points that arise more generally when deciding how to model financial returns data.

  12. Imperfect Labour Markets, the Stock Market and the Inefficiency of Capitalism

    OpenAIRE

    Manning, Alan

    1989-01-01

    In a capitalist economy, capitalists can sell their stake in a firm on the stock market whereas workers cannot sell their jobs. It is argued that when workers have some bargaining power this asymmetry in property rights leads to inefficiencies. The consequences of this are explored and certain policy options considered. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.

  13. 136 Tax Revenue, Stock Market and Economic Growth of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Irfan Javaid Attari

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of capital market and fiscal policy influences in determining the nexus of economic growth in Pakistan from July 2003 to July 2012. The authors utilize ADF unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, VECM test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis to test the relationship among tax revenue, stock market and economic growth in Pakistan. Granger causality analysis is used to answer questions whether “Does tax revenue cause the economic growth?” or “Does tax revenue cause the capital market?”. The results demonstrate that there is a bidirectional casualty between tax revenue and economic growth; and a unidirectional causality from capital market to tax revenue. The estimated result shows that growth of Pakistan economy is strongly contributed from the high collection of direct tax revenue and the development of financial market activity. The findings of this paper have important implications to current and potential investors in Pakistan economy to understand the economic condition of Pakistan and to assist them in making their investment decision.

  14. STOCK MARKET AND TAX REVENUE COLLECTION IN MALAYSIA: EVIDENCE FROM COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY TESTS

    OpenAIRE

    Roshaiza Taha

    2013-01-01

    This study empirically examined the relationship between stock market performance and taxation in Malaysia over the period 1980 to 2008. The Gregory Hansen methodology was utilized to examine which tax collected by Malaysia’s Government most impacted stock market performance in Malaysia. The results show that stock market performance contributes most to the changes in company tax revenue as compared to personal taxes and real property gain taxes. In addition, the analysis detects a signific...

  15. Linkages between international stock markets: A multivariate long-memory approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin

    2009-06-01

    This paper aims to analyze the linkages between international stock markets and to search for an optimum model for analyzing their interactions taking into consideration their geographical location, using the vector fractionally integrated autoregressive moving-average (VARFIMA) model. This model has not so far been employed in examining the interdependence among the stock markets of Germany, Japan, the UK, and the USA. The results of the paper show that there is an interconnection among the stock markets of these countries.

  16. EARNINGS MANAGEMENT: DETERMINANT FACTORS AND STOCK PRICE IN DEVELOPING MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaenal Fanani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to prove whether manager coped its earnings for the purpose ofinformative or target opportunistic. Research also investigated whether investment opportunity setinfl uenced the choice of manager to report as opportunistic to hide performance, or to report earningmore informative concerning with debt, political cost, market share, and earning. Sample of thisresearch was chosen by using purposive sampling of 350 manufacturing business listed in the JakartaStock Exchange, started from 1997 up to 2002. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM by using programof Analysis of Moment Structures (AMOS was considered as the appropriate statistical technique toexamine pattern relation of formed model. The results showed that earning management conductedby manager in Developing Market such as Indonesia represented informative earning managementwhich meant all investors had more own belief in earning reporting, but this research could notprove that company owning high investment opportunity set tended to conduct informative earningmanagement.

  17. Stochastic cellular automata model for stock market dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolozzi, M; Thomas, A W

    2004-04-01

    In the present work we introduce a stochastic cellular automata model in order to simulate the dynamics of the stock market. A direct percolation method is used to create a hierarchy of clusters of active traders on a two-dimensional grid. Active traders are characterized by the decision to buy, sigma(i) (t)=+1, or sell, sigma(i) (t)=-1, a stock at a certain discrete time step. The remaining cells are inactive, sigma(i) (t)=0. The trading dynamics is then determined by the stochastic interaction between traders belonging to the same cluster. Extreme, intermittent events, such as crashes or bubbles, are triggered by a phase transition in the state of the bigger clusters present on the grid, where almost all the active traders come to share the same spin orientation. Most of the stylized aspects of the financial market time series, including multifractal proprieties, are reproduced by the model. A direct comparison is made with the daily closures of the S&P 500 index.

  18. Stochastic cellular automata model for stock market dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolozzi, M.; Thomas, A. W.

    2004-04-01

    In the present work we introduce a stochastic cellular automata model in order to simulate the dynamics of the stock market. A direct percolation method is used to create a hierarchy of clusters of active traders on a two-dimensional grid. Active traders are characterized by the decision to buy, σi (t)=+1 , or sell, σi (t)=-1 , a stock at a certain discrete time step. The remaining cells are inactive, σi (t)=0 . The trading dynamics is then determined by the stochastic interaction between traders belonging to the same cluster. Extreme, intermittent events, such as crashes or bubbles, are triggered by a phase transition in the state of the bigger clusters present on the grid, where almost all the active traders come to share the same spin orientation. Most of the stylized aspects of the financial market time series, including multifractal proprieties, are reproduced by the model. A direct comparison is made with the daily closures of the S&P500 index.

  19. How Stock Markets Development Affect Endogenous Growth Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najeb Masoud

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper can bedescribed as a significant exploratory study that will provide a significantcontribution to knowledge to consider crucial issues which need to be barriersto understanding or a temptation/ requirement to judge some practices as‘better’ than others for stock market development effective approach andimplement successful stock market performance and economic growth. Recentanalysis of the link between financial development and growth, gained frominsights acquired as a result of using the technique of endogenous growthmodels, has illustrated that growth without exogenous technical progress andthat growth rates could be related to technology, income distribution andinstitutional arrangements. This provides the theoretical background thatempirical studies have lacked; illustrating that financial intermediationaffects the level of economic growth. Resulting models have provided newimpetus to empirical research of the effects of financial development. Thebirth of the new endogenous growth theory has facilitated the development ofimproved growth models where the long-term rate could be affected by a numberof elements. These included technology, education and health policies in theprocess of economic development, capital accumulation, government policies andinstitutional activities in the role of financial development in economicgrowth.

  20. Information theory in econophysics: stock market and retirement funds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Eugenio; Saravia, G.; Astete, J.; Díaz, J.; Erribarren, R.; Riadi, F.

    2013-03-01

    Information theory can help to recognize magnetic phase transitions, what can be seen as a way to recognize different regimes. This is achieved by means of zippers specifically designed to compact data in a meaningful way at is the case for compressor wlzip. In the present contribution we first apply wlzip to the Chilean stock market interpreting the compression rates for the files storing the minute variation of the IPSA indicator. Agitated days yield poor compression rates while calm days yield high compressibility. We then correlate this behavior to the value of the five retirement funds related to the Chilean economy. It is found that the covariance between the profitability of the retirement funds and the compressibility of the IPSA values of previous day is high for those funds investing in risky stocks. Surprisingly, there seems to be no great difference among the three riskier funds contrary to what could be expected from the limitations on the portfolio composition established by the laws that regulate this market.

  1. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

  2. Web Search Queries Can Predict Stock Market Volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people’s actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www. PMID:22829871

  3. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilaria Bordino

    Full Text Available We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

  4. Market reaction to grouping equities in stock markets: An empirical analysis on Borsa Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yilmaz Yildiz

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this study is to investigate the market reaction to stock grouping announcements in Borsa Istanbul which requires stocks to be classified into groups “A”, “B” and “C” according to their market capitalization and floating rates. By utilizing event study analysis, our results suggest that grouping announcements have significant effect on stock prices and trading volume. The event day positive (negative relationship between abnormal return and volume for the upgraded (downgraded stocks supports the downward sloping demand curve hypothesis. Moreover, findings also suggest that stocks which are upgraded to Group A are exposed to more attention which is in line with the attention hypothesis. The reverse is valid for the downgraded firms. We find no evidence of price reversals and long-term symmetrical liquidity effect which lead us to reject price pressure and liquidity hypotheses. Finally, we reach controversial evidence for the information hypothesis. Keywords: Equity grouping, Regulation, Price and volume effects, Jel Classification: G11, G12, G14

  5. Hybrid system prediction for the stock market: The case of transitional markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralević Nebojša

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this paper is the creation and testing of an enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes, including the comparison with the traditional neural network backpropagation model. The objective of the research is to gather information concerning the possibilities of using the enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes focusing on transitional markets. The methodology used involves the integration of fuzzified weights into the neural network. The research results will be beneficial both for the broader investment community and the academia, in terms of the application of the enhanced model in the investment decision-making, as well as in improving the knowledge in this subject matter.

  6. Are MENA and Pacific Basin Stock Equity Markets Predictable?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fathia Elleuch Lahyani

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This research uses variance ratio analysis to test whether Middle Eastern, North African (MENA and Pacific Basin emerging equity markets follow a martingale behavior during the period1980-2004. The conventional Lo and MacKinlay variance ratio test, the multiple variance ratio test of Chow and Denning, rank- and sign-based test of Wright, and wild bootstrap of Kim are used for the monthly return series. The problem of thin trading was addressed using Miller, Muthuswamy, and Whaley’s adjusting procedure. Results have shown traces of a martingale behavior at high holding horizons. However, overall conclusions indicate that the null martingale hypothesis is strongly rejected for the whole sample and considered sub-periods at a 5% significance level. The pattern of the variance ratio estimates signify that the selected stock markets exhibit persistent mean-reverting and predictable behavior in their monthly adjusted returns series. The results expose the ineffectiveness of economic liberalization and privatization measures implemented in the early 1990s to improve their market efficiency. The Asian crisis did not affect the outcomes of the variance ratio analysis. Moreover, it sounds as if the perceptible development in terms of size and liquidity was not sufficient to exhibit a martingale behavior in these markets.

  7. Danish Mutual Fund Performance - Selectivity, Market Timing and Persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Michael

    Funds under management by Danish mutual funds have increased by 25% annually during the last 10 years and measured per capita Denmark has the third largest mutual fund industry in Europe. This paper provides the first independent performance analysis of Danish mutual funds. We analyse selectivity...... applying a single index model and a multi-factor model, respectively. Furthermore, we analyse the timing ability of the Danish mutual funds pursuing both the quadratic regressions of Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and the option approach suggested by Henriksson and Merton (1981). Finally, we analyse performance...... persistence using parametric as well as non-parametric methodologies. We conclude that in general Danish mutual funds perform neutrally, returns are non-persistent and Danish mutual funds have no timing ability....

  8. THE INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE DURING ASIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS AND GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA PRAPTININGSIH

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Volatility in the stock market had strongly affected by the movement of publicly or even inside information. The movements of this information will generate the perspectives and expectations of investors in decision-making. How strong is the level of market efficiency in determining the movement of stock market, especially to achieve stability in the stock market during the economic crisis? How effective are the policies of central banks in controlling the movement of the stock market? This study aims to measure the factors that influence changes in the movement of stock price in Indonesian stock market in terms of market efficiency hypothesis. This research also aims to investigate the effectiveness of central bank policy in controlling and stabilizing the movement of stocks in Indonesia. The research will focus on the economic crisis in 1997 and the global crisis in 2008 as case studies. Thepaperutilizesthe vector error-correction model, impulse responses and variance decomposition in measuring the contribution of the factors that affect the movement of stock and determine the effectiveness of central bank policy. The findings are beneficialto central banks, governments, companies and investors in strengthening the Indonesian Stock Market particularly in facing the threat of financial crisis.

  9. Structure Characteristics of the International Stock Market Complex Network in the Perspective of Whole and Part

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangxi Cao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available International stock market forms an abstract complex network through the fluctuation correlation of stock price index. Past studies of complex network almost focus on single country’s stock market. Here we investigate the whole and partial characteristics of international stock market network (ISMN (hereinafter referred to as ISMN. For the analysis on the whole network, we firstly determine the reasonable threshold as the basic of the following study. Robustness is applied to analyze the stability of the network and the result shows that ISMN has robustness against random attack but intentional attack breaks the connection integrity of ISMN rapidly. In the partial network, the sliding window method is used to analyze the dynamic evolution of the relationship between the Chinese (Shanghai stock market and the international stock market. The connection between the Chinese stock market and foreign stock markets becomes increasingly closer, and the links between them show a significant enhancement especially after China joined the WTO. In general, we suggest that transnational investors pay more attention to some significant event of the stock market with large degree for better risk-circumvention.

  10. Product development strategy in the Danish agricultural complex: Global interaction with clusters of marketing excellence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Preben Sander

    1992-01-01

    A study of the Danish foods industry shows that producers of food products have built up and maintain development of end-user products in interaction with customers in distant sophisticated markets. Concurrently, the Danish agro-industrial complex been singled out in other studies as a paradigmatic...... produce and utilize sticky and fastchanging information about production and markets respectively. It is precisely by not interacting wi market business-to-business demand from changing end-user market that the Danish agro-industrial complex has avoided being insulated. The managerial implication...... is that a company in search of partners for joint development in global agro-industra networks can realize a competitive advantage by applying a market view that is euclidean upstream and equidstant downstream....

  11. Enacting representations of markets in exchange practies in the Danish potato industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Esbjerg, Lars

    finding common ground and why retailers are dominant. Main contribution: The paper shows that most activities performed by actors in the industry sustain codified representations of the market, but some activities contest and challenge prevalent representations of the market for potatoes. Not all......: The paper uses the extended case study method to integrate existing concepts and theories using empirical data from the Danish potato industry. Twenty semistructured, narrative interviews were conducted with different actors in the industry. Research findings: Analysis suggests that the representations...... various actors have constructed of the Danish market for potatoes and the different market actors share many common features, but also that there are important differences in representations between members along the marketing channel that explain why actors in the Danish potato industry have difficulties...

  12. Bond-market skepticism and stock-market exuberance in the hospital industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, James C

    2002-01-01

    The hospital industry needs funds to refurbish physical facilities, upgrade clinical and information technologies, and rebuild financial positions weakened by past external challenges and unwise organizational strategies. The financial markets offer a marked contrast in capital access, as bond creditors remain skeptical while stock investors plunge back into the once-shunned industry. Ironically, high stock prices may drive the for-profit chains to repeat past cycles of overexpansion, while weak bond ratings may save non-profit systems from a comparable loss of focus on the core business of operating and improving inpatient facilities. This turbulence has implications for public payment, antitrust, and financial disclosure policies.

  13. Does volatility spillover among stock markets varies from normal to turbulent periods? Evidence from emerging markets of Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalil Jebran

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the volatility spillover effect among Asian emerging markets in pre and post 2007 financial crisis period. The sample includes five emerging markets of Asia named; China, Pakistan, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, and India. The asymmetric volatility spillover among the stock markets is examined using an extended EGARCH model. The results highlight certain interesting key findings. We find bidirectional volatility spillover between stock markets of India and Sri Lanka in both sub-periods. However the volatility spillover is bidirectional between stock markets of Hong Kong and India; Pakistan and India in pre-crisis period, while in stock markets of Sri Lanka and Pakistan in post-crisis period. The integration of emerging markets of Asia has important implications for investors and policy makers.

  14. Application of artificial neural network for the prediction of stock market returns: The case of the Japanese stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu; Akagi, Fumio

    2016-01-01

    Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task because of the highly nonlinear nature of the financial time series. In this study, we apply an artificial neural network (ANN) that can map any nonlinear function without a prior assumption to predict the return of the Japanese Nikkei 225 index. (1) To improve the effectiveness of prediction algorithms, we propose a new set of input variables for ANN models. (2) To verify the prediction ability of the selected input variables, we predict returns for the Nikkei 225 index using the classical back propagation (BP) learning algorithm. (3) Global search techniques, i.e., a genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing (SA), are employed to improve the prediction accuracy of the ANN and overcome the local convergence problem of the BP algorithm. It is observed through empirical experiments that the selected input variables were effective to predict stock market returns. A hybrid approach based on GA and SA improve prediction accuracy significantly and outperform the traditional BP training algorithm.

  15. Statistical properties of the stock and credit market: RMT and network topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Min Jae; Kim, Sehyun; Kim, Soo Yong

    We analyzed the dependence structure of the credit and stock market using random matrix theory and network topology. The dynamics of both markets have been spotlighted throughout the subprime crisis. In this study, we compared these two markets in view of the market-wide effect from random matrix theory and eigenvalue analysis. We found that the largest eigenvalue of the credit market as a whole preceded that of the stock market in the beginning of the financial crisis and that of two markets tended to be synchronized after the crisis. The correlation between the companies of both markets became considerably stronger after the crisis as well.

  16. A time series analysis of Danish markets for pork, chicken, and beef

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lill; Babula, Ronald; Hartmann, Helene

    2007-01-01

    We offer a first-time empirical depiction of Danish dynamic meat price/quantity transmissions by formulating, estimating, and testing a VAR model of market-clearing quantities and prices of the Danish pork, chicken, and beef markets. The analysis illuminates how these markets dynamically handle...... shocks, and it is demonstrated that: (i) The three meats are close substitutes; (ii) chicken and pork market shocks have own-market and cross-market effects that occur rapidly and swiftly, while beef market shocks have more enduring impacts on pork and chicken markets; (iii) prices are in general more...... endogenous than quantities, and (iv) the price of chicken is much more endogenous than the prices of pork and beef....

  17. Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cong Ronggang; Wei Yiming; Jiao Jianlin; Fan Ying

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing index and some oil companies. Some 'important' oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain much more than interest rates for manufacturing index

  18. China’s Stock Market Integration with a Leading Power and a Close Neighbor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Yi

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Current integration and co-movement among international stock markets has been boosted by increased globalization of the world economy, and profit-chasing capital surfing across borders. With a reputation as the fastest growing economy in the world, China’s stock market has continued gaining momentum during recent years and incurred growing attention from academicians, as well as practitioners. Taking into account economic and geographical considerations, the US and Hong Kong are considerably the most comparable stock markets to China. The usual vector error correction model (VECM could overlook the long memory feature of cointegration residual series, which can in turn exert bias on the resulting inferences. To overcome its limitations, we employ a fractionally integrated VECM (FIVECM in this paper to investigate the long-term cointegration relations binding China’s stock market to the aforementioned stock markets. In addition, by augmenting the FIVECM with multivariate GARCH model, the return transmission and volatility spillover between market return series were revealed simultaneously. Our empirical results show that China’s stock market is fractionally cointegrated with the two markets, and it appears that China’s stock market has stronger ties with its neighboring Hong Kong market than with the world superpower, the US market.

  19. Social and cultural capital in project marketing service firms: Danish architectural firms on the German market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaates, Maria Anne; Tikkanen, Henrikki; Alajoutsijärvi, Kimmo

    2002-01-01

    , cultural capital accumulation entails such things as building visible buildings, winning design competitions, or obtaining important tenders, whereas social capital is accumulated through the recognition by other construction industry actors that one is a member of their circles. The cases presented......This article analyses the marketing activities of three Danish architectural firms in Germany during the 1990s from a perspective that is new to project marketing, in that the Bourdivan concepts of social and cultural capital are applied to the offerings and activities of firms. In architecture...... provide support for our claim that the accumulation of social and cultural capital is crucial to acquiring architectural projects, while also indicating that cultural and social capital are internationally transferable to a limited extent only. This in turn suggests that national construction industries...

  20. 76 FR 55954 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; the NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-09

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; the NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...\\ notice is hereby given that, on August 25, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange'' or... market quality by making markets in a large number of stocks and that contribute to price discovery by...

  1. 76 FR 48186 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-08

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... is hereby given that, on July 27, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange'' or ``NASDAQ... NASDAQ Stock Market and the NASDAQ Options Market. Currently, a member that provides shares of liquidity...

  2. Impact of global financial crisis on stylized facts between energy markets and stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leng, Tan Kim; Cheong, Chin Wen; Hooi, Tan Siow

    2014-06-01

    Understanding the stylized facts is extremely important and has becomes a hot issue nowadays. However, recent global financial crisis that started from United States had spread all over the world and adversely affected the commodities and financial sectors of both developed and developing countries. This paper tends to examine the impact of crisis on stylized facts between energy and stock markets using ARCH-family models based on the experience over 2008 global financial crisis. Empirical results denote that there is long lasting, persists and positively significant the autocorrelation function of absolute returns and their squares in both markets for before and during crisis. Besides that, leverage effects are found in stock markets whereby bad news has a greater impact on volatility than good news for both before and during crisis. However, crisis does not indicate any impact on risk-return tradeoff for both energy and stock markets. For forecasting evaluations, GARCH model and FIAPARCH model indicate superior out of sample forecasts for before and during crisis respectively.

  3. Do Markets Cointegrate after Financial Crises? Evidence from G-20 Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahfuzul Haque

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The results of the single-equation cointegration tests indicate that patterns of cointegration in the two main and four sub-periods are not homogeneous. Two key findings emerge from the study. First, fewer stock markets cointegrated with S&P 500 during the crisis period than they did during the pre-crisis. In other words, as the 2008 financial crisis deepened, S&P 500 and G-20 stock indices moved towards less cointegration. The decreasing number of cointegrating relationships implies that the U.S. stock markets and other G-20 markets have experienced different driving forces since the start of the U.S. crisis. Second, among those markets that are cointegrated with S&P 500, they happened to be deeply affected by S&P and the shocks emerging from it. The 2007–2009 financial crises can be considered a structural break in the long-run relationship and may have resulted from effective joint intervention/responses taken by members of G-20 nations.

  4. An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Stock Market Crisis on Economic Growth: The Nigerian Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omowunmi Felicia Olokoyo

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Stock market crashes are social phenomena where external economic events combine with crowd behavior and psychology in a positive feedback loop where selling by some market participants drives more market participants to sell. This study empirically established the relationship between stock market crisis and Nigeria’s economic growth and also showed the relationship between stock market price crash and the crisis itself. In this light, this paper examined the interactive influence of movements in the major indicators of the performance of the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market such as the Market Capitalization (MK, All Share Index (ASI, Number of Deals (NOD, Volume and Value of Stock (VV, Total Number of New Issues (TNI and Inflation (INFR on the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product (GDP using data from 1985-2009. To achieve the two objectives stated above, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS method was employed. To correct for the OLS result biasness the log was applied to GDP and MK and also AR(1 was introduced to the first model. The result shows that stock market crisis has a highly significant effect on Nigeria’s economic growth. The result also shows a significant relationship between stock market price crash and the market crisis itself. It is therefore recommended that in the face of the ongoing crisis in the global stock market, the Nigerian stock market authorities should aim at making the market meet a world class standard. Also, all the sectors of the economy should act in a collaborative manner such that optimum benefits can be realized from their economic activities in the Nigeria market even in the hub of global crisis.

  5. SPECULATIVE EFFICIENCY OF STOCK INDEX FUTURES MARKETS:AN ANALYSIS ON THE ASEAN MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Normas Awang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The capital markets in emerging economies are undergoing rapid transformationdue to the advancement of technologicalinnovations and globalization of themarketplace. Thus, the risk managementmeasures are extremely importantthroughout the financial system. However,the scarcity of derivative instrumentssuch as futures and options in emergingmarkets, in addition to the failure togenerate liquidity, have made the emerging economies to be left behind in therecent development of the world capital markets. Whilethere are a great numberof earlier studies that analyse the efficiency of futures markets in differentcountries, there is a lack ofresearch that take intoaccount of the speculativeefficiency of futures markets which argues that futures prices are an unbiased forecast of the spot pricesas well as a crucial part offorecasting techniques. Thispaper aims to investigate the speculativeefficiency of stock index futures marketsin the ASEAN markets which comprises ofSingapore, Malaysia and Thailand byemploying an econometric time series dataanalysis ranging from January 2000 toDecember 2010.

  6. EFFECT OF INVESTOR SENTIMENT ON FUTURE RETURNS IN THE NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udoka Bernard Alajekwu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the effect of investor sentiment on future returns in the Nigerian stock market. The OLS regression and granger causality techniques were employed for data analyses. The results showed that (1 investor sentiment has a significant positive effect on stock market returns even after control for fundamentals such as Industrial production index, consumer price index and Treasury bill rate; (2 there is a uni-directional causality that runs from change in investor sentiment (ΔCCI to stock market returns (Rm. Derived finding showed that the inclusion of fundamentals increased the explanatory power of investor sentiment from 3.96% to 33.05%, though at both level, investor sentiment (ΔCCI has low explanatory power on stock market returns. The study posits existence of a dynamic relationship between investor sentiment and the behaviour of stock future returns in Nigeria such that higher sentiment concurrently leads to higher stock prices.

  7. THE STOCK MARKET WEALTH AND CONSUMER SPENDING BEHAVIOUR: IS THERE A WEALTH EFFECT?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hussain Al-Obaid

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of stock market wealth on consumer spending. Basic macroeconometric models estimate that a Saudi Riyal's increase in stock market wealth boosts consumer spending by 7-9 Halals per year. With the significant 2004 and 2005 rise in stock prices in Saudi financial market, the nature and importance of this wealth effect have been much debated. After reviewing previous works, we find new evidence from the Direct Survey of Income Consumption(DSOIC. The survey results are mostly consistent with lifecycle saving and a modest wealth effect. Some stockholders reported substantial effect of stock prices on their saving and spending.

  8. Relationship between Gold and Oil Prices and Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Mansoor Baig

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study objective to examine the relationship between gold prices, oil prices and KSE100 return. This study important for the investor whose want to invest in real assets and financial assets. This study helps investor to achieve the portfolio diversification. This study uses the monthly data of gold prices, KSE100, and oil prices for the period of 2000 to 2010 (monthly. This study applied Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller test Phillip Perron test, Johansen and Jelseluis Co-integration test, Variance Decomposition test to find relationship. This study concludes that Gold prices growth, Oil prices growth and KSE100 return have no significant relationship in the long run. This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in Gold, Oil and stock market. In the current era Gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day and investors think that stock returns may or may not affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focuses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help the investment institutions or portfolio managers.

  9. Evidence of multifractality from emerging European stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caraiani, Petre

    2012-01-01

    We test for the presence of multifractality in the daily returns of the three most important stock market indices from Central and Eastern Europe, Czech PX, Hungarian BUX and Polish WIG using the Empirical Mode Decomposition based Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. We found that the global Hurst coefficient varies with the q coefficient and that there is multifractality evidenced through the multifractal spectrum. The exercise is replicated for the sample around the high volatility period corresponding to the last global financial crisis. Although no direct link has been found between the crisis and the multifractal spectrum, the crisis was found to influence the overall shape as quantified through the norm of the multifractal spectrum.

  10. Liquidity spillover in international stock markets through distinct time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righi, Marcelo Brutti; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

    2014-01-01

    This paper identifies liquidity spillovers through different time scales based on a wavelet multiscaling method. We decompose daily data from U.S., British, Brazilian and Hong Kong stock markets indices in order to calculate the scale correlation between their illiquidities. The sample is divided in order to consider non-crisis, sub-prime crisis and Eurozone crisis. We find that there are changes in correlations of distinct scales and different periods. Association in finest scales is smaller than in coarse scales. There is a rise on associations in periods of crisis. In frequencies, there is predominance for significant distinctions involving the coarsest scale, while for crises periods there is predominance for distinctions on the finest scale.

  11. 76 FR 29014 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ Stock Market, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-19

    ... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ Stock Market, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate... ``Act''),\\1\\ and Rule 19b-4 thereunder,\\2\\ notice is hereby given that on May 3, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock... market markers \\18\\ because it has been established that Professionals have access to more information...

  12. Cross-country differences in stock market development : a cultural view

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, Eelke de; Semenov, Radislav

    2002-01-01

    Although during the last decades the importance of stock markets has increased in all OECD countries, the cross-country differences appear to be remarkably stable. In this paper we relate the factors determining cross-country differences in stock market activity to deeply rooted norms and values in

  13. Empirical studies on the cross-section of corporate bond and stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Zundert, Jeroen

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation contains five empirical studies on the efficiency of corporate bond and stock markets. In Chapter 2, the pricing of interest rate risk in the stock market is analyzed. Over the long run, 1927 to 2015, the price of bearing interest rate risk is positive as expected, but there is

  14. 213 The Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    Granger-cause stock market development; all in same country, with similar time series data. Also, a very ..... pertinent to encourage and 'cajole' greater population of the income citizenry into investing in the stock market. ... Pakistan, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 14:182-. 195. Chen, Nai-Fu; Roll, R. and ...

  15. Can the stock market anticipate future operating performance? Evidence from equity rights issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Kabir (Rezaul); P.G.J. Roosenboom (Peter)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines whether the stock market valuation impact is consistent with subsequent operating performance of firms. We use data for equity rights offerings - the widely adopted flotation method in the Netherlands. We first examine the stock market announcement effect of rights

  16. Can the Stock Market Anticipate Future Operating Performance? Evidence from Equity Rights Issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kabir, Mohammed Rezaul; Roosenboom, Peter

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines whether the stock market valuation impact is consistent with subsequent operating performance of firms. We use data for equity rights offerings - the widely adopted flotation method in the Netherlands. We first examine the stock market announcement effect of rights issues and

  17. Cross-country Differences in Stock Market Development: A Cultural View

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E. de; Semenov, R.

    2002-01-01

    Although during the last decades the importance of stock markets has increased in all OECD countries, the cross-country differences appear to be remarkably stable. In this paper we relate the factors determining cross-country differences in stock market activity to deeply rooted norms and values

  18. 213 The Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    stock markets can play a role in inducing economic growth in less developed country like Nigeria by channeling investment where it is needed from public. Mobilization of such resources to various sectors certainly helps in economic development and growth. Stock market development has assumed a developmental role in ...

  19. The Power of Trading Polarity: Evidence from China Stock Market Crash

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Shan; Zhao, Jichang; Wang, Huiwen

    2018-01-01

    The imbalance of buying and selling functions profoundly in the formation of market trends, however, a fine-granularity investigation of the imbalance is still missing. This paper investigates a unique transaction dataset that enables us to inspect the imbalance of buying and selling on the man-times level at high frequency, what we call 'trading polarity', for a large cross-section of stocks from Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The trading polarity measures the market sentiment toward stocks from a...

  20. Trace elements in shellfish on the Danish market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, A; Mortensen, G K

    1994-01-01

    Different kinds of shellfish have been investigated for their contents of the trace elements cadmium, lead, mercury, nickel, chromium, arsenic and selenium. The investigation included shrimps, mussels, lobster, langoustine, crayfish, crab claws and oyster. None of the Danish action levels for cadmium, lead and mercury respectively were exceeded, but the highest concentration of lead was very close to the Danish action levels. Shellfish do not contribute significantly to the intake of the trace elements investigated.

  1. Intermarket Technical Research of the U.S. Capital Markets and the Czech Stock Market Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Vychytilová

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Globalization of the capital markets increasingly leads the investors to understand the fundamentals and technicals of asset cross-correlations and the global asset allocation seems to be an important task. The paper measures product momentum correlations between the four leading global benchmarks Standard & Poor’s stock index, Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Price index and Dollar Index and between these indices and the Czech stock PX index. Empirical results illustrate that statistically significant correlations between U.S. indices existed over some past period at the 95.0% confidence level. In addition, the significant relation between indices Standard & Poor’s stock index, Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB index and the Czech stock market PX during the past fifteen years has been detected. These conclusions were reached from an analysis of monthly data in the United States and the Czech Republic, from January 1999 to April 2014. The empirical results offer beneficial applications not only for investors to diversify their risk but also for policy-makers to allocate resources more efficiently.

  2. Integration of Stock Markets between Indonesia and Its Major Trading Partners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakri Abdul Karim

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL and Vector Autoregressive (VAR frameworks, this study examines the integration between the emerging stock market of Indonesia and its major trading partners (i.e., Japan, the U.S., Singapore, and China. During the period of July 1998 to December 2007, the Indonesian stock market is found to be integrated with its major trading partners. Thus, this implies that there is a limited room available for investors to gain risk-reduction benefits through diversifying their portfolio in those markets. Meanwhile, in the short run, the Indonesian market responds more to shocks in the U.S. and Singapore than in Japan and China. In designing policies pertaining to its stock market, the Indonesian government should take into account any development in the stock markets of its major trading partners, particularly the U.S. and Singaporean markets.

  3. Statistical properties and pre-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners.

  4. Statistical Properties and Pre-Hit Dynamics of Price Limit Hits in the Chinese Stock Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders’ short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716

  5. EU Emission Allowances and the stock market Evidence from the electricity industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oberndorfer, Ulrich

    2009-01-01

    This paper constitutes - to our best knowledge - the first econometric analysis on stock market effects of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Our results suggest that EU Emission Allowance (EUA) price developments matter to the stock performance of electricity firms: EUA price changes and stock returns of the most important European electricity corporations are shown to be positively related. This effect does not work asymmetrically, so that stock markets do not seem to react differently to EUA appreciations in comparison to depreciations. The carbon market effect is shown to be both time- and country-specific: It is particularly strong for the period of EUA market shock in early 2006, and differs with respect to the countries where the electricity corporations analysed are headquartered. Stock market reactions to EUA volatility could not be shown. (author)

  6. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Stock Market Volatility and Correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgharian, Hossein; Christiansen, Charlotte; Hou, Ai Jun

    We use Baker, Bloom, and Davis’s (2016) economic policy uncertainty indices in combination with the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach to investigate long-run stock market volatility and correlation, primarily for the US and UK. Long-run US–UK stock market correlation depends positively on US...... economic policy uncertainty shocks. The dependence is asymmetric, with only positive shocks - increasing uncertainty - being of importance. The US long-run stock market volatility depends significantly on US economic policy uncertainty shocks but not on UK shocks, while the UK long-run stock market...... volatility depends significantly on both. Allowing for US economic policy uncertainty shocks improves the out-of-sample forecasting of US–UK stock market correlation and enhances portfolio performance. Similar results apply to the long-run correlation between the US and Canada, China, and Germany....

  7. Long and Short-Term Dynamic Relationship between Macedonian and Croatian Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelovska Julijana

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is the empirical investigation of the long-run relations and the short-term dynamics between two Balkan stock markets: Macedonian and Croatian. The presence of long run common trend between the Macedonian and Croatian stock market indices is identified by applying Johansen’s cointegration maximum eigenvalue and trace tests, while potential causal relations are examined by employing Granger’s causality tests. Data sample spans from January 3rd, 2005 to March 31st, 2017. The stock market indices were found to be co-integrated with significant relationships. A bi-directional pattern of causality is documented between the Macedonian and Croatian returns. This pattern is remarkably stable and suggests significant economic ties between the investors in Macedonian and Croatian stock markets. The findings are important for the investors meaning that they cannot gain diversification benefits of investing in the Croatian or Macedonian stock market.

  8. Stock Market Reaction to CEO Appointment – Preliminary Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Byrka-Kita

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of this paper is to examine shareholders’ reaction to the decision of the supervisory board to appoint a CEO in companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Methodology: An event study and the mean-adjusted model were applied. The abnormal returns were measured as the CAAR in the entire (-60, + 60 window and selected sub-windows. Findings: The obtained values of abnormal returns indicate the shareholder’s negative reaction. Throughout the observation window, they oscillate slightly below zero, and in the window (0, +20 they are negative at -1.566%. Irrespective of the observation window, negative abnormal returns were obtained for over half of the observation (52–57%. Therefore, preliminary results indicate the predominance of the information effect over the real one. The decrease in market value as a result of the event may result from an increase in investors’ uncertainty as to the effects of changes in strategy and skills of the new CEO. Originality: The research is a unique one. To date, no one has carried out research into shareholders’ reaction to a CEO appointment in either the Polish or Central and Eastern European capital markets. They primarily bring the value of cognition of shareholders’ behaviour in the analysed event, which is reflected in share prices. They extend the literature on the signalization instruments, i.e. the activities that boards can undertake due to the new information transmitted to the capital market participants and stakeholders. The market reaction to a CEO appointment will without a doubt interest investors; the institutions responsible for supervision (which in the case of Poland is the Financial Oversight Commission and the legislator in charge of regulations that prevent insider trading while promoting corporate disclosure transparency.

  9. The Effects of Asset Management and Profitability on Stock Returns: A Comparative Study between Conventional and Islamic Stock Markets in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelly Midesia

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at empirically examining whether there are differences in stock returns between conventional and Islamic stock returns In Indonesia for the period 2010-2013. This study also attempts to explore the effect of asset management and profitability both stock returns in Indonesia. Annual pooled data gathered from the annual financial reports of 100 conventional and Islamic stock returns, which were published by the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2013 were used and analyzed by using the independent t-test and panel multivariate regression analysis. The result shows that there was no difference in stock returns between the conventional and Islamic stock markets. Additionally, the study documents that only profitability, which is measured by market ratio, was found to have an influence on the conventional stock markets. Meanwhile, as for Islamic stock market, only management of assets was found to have a significant effect on the stock return. These findings imply that investors who are investing in both Islamic and conventional markets would gain similar returns. However, in predicting and stabilizing the stock markets, both investors and policy makers should focus on the profitability for the conventional and management of assets for the Islamic stock market.

  10. The Danish East India Company

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Karsten Engsig

    2005-01-01

    The article analysis the first Danish East India Company incorporated in 1616, which was the first Danish Stock Company and which has impacts even on modern Danish company la......The article analysis the first Danish East India Company incorporated in 1616, which was the first Danish Stock Company and which has impacts even on modern Danish company la...

  11. Causality tests between stock market development and economic growth in West African Monetary Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maman Tachiwou ABOUDOU

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for the West African Monetary Union economy over the last decade or so. By applying the techniques of unit–root tests and the long–run Granger noncausality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995, the causal relationships between the real GDP growth rate and two stock market development proxies are tested. The results are in line with the supply leading hypothesis in the sense that there is strong causal flow from the stock market development to economic growth. A unidirectional causal relationship is also observed between real market capitalization ratio and economic growth.

  12. A discussion of stock market speculation by Pierre-Joseph Proudhon

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Claude Juhel; Dominique Dufour

    2008-01-01

    International audience; The object of this contribution is to present the ideas behind the thinking of the French economist Pierre-Joseph Proudhon (1809-1865) in relation to the causes and effects of Stock market speculation. It is based upon the works of this author but particularly on his “Manuel du spéculateur à la Bourse” (Stock Market Speculator Manual) edited in 1857 in Paris. Compared to the markets of today, however, the stock market described by Proudhon appears embryonic. Neverthele...

  13. Risk Diversification Between Stock Markets In Germany And Bosnia And Herzegovina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaimović Azra

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The integration of global equity markets has been a well-studied topic in the last few decades, particularly after stock market crashes. Most studies have focused on developed markets such as the US, Western Europe and Japan. The findings were that the degree of international co-movements among stock prices has substantially increased in the post-crash regime. In this paper we research the co-movements of German and Bosnian stock markets during and after the recent economic and financial crisis.

  14. Dominating clasp of the financial sector revealed by partial correlation analysis of the stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenett, Dror Y; Tumminello, Michele; Madi, Asaf; Gur-Gershgoren, Gitit; Mantegna, Rosario N; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2010-12-20

    What are the dominant stocks which drive the correlations present among stocks traded in a stock market? Can a correlation analysis provide an answer to this question? In the past, correlation based networks have been proposed as a tool to uncover the underlying backbone of the market. Correlation based networks represent the stocks and their relationships, which are then investigated using different network theory methodologies. Here we introduce a new concept to tackle the above question--the partial correlation network. Partial correlation is a measure of how the correlation between two variables, e.g., stock returns, is affected by a third variable. By using it we define a proxy of stock influence, which is then used to construct partial correlation networks. The empirical part of this study is performed on a specific financial system, namely the set of 300 highly capitalized stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange, in the time period 2001-2003. By constructing the partial correlation network, unlike the case of standard correlation based networks, we find that stocks belonging to the financial sector and, in particular, to the investment services sub-sector, are the most influential stocks affecting the correlation profile of the system. Using a moving window analysis, we find that the strong influence of the financial stocks is conserved across time for the investigated trading period. Our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms and driving forces controlling the correlation profile observed in a financial market.

  15. Competitive Patterns in the Danish Organic Industry & its Usefulness in Predicting Development in other EU Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Jens; Linneberg, Mai Skjøtt

    2003-01-01

    The organic market in Denmark is not a niche market any longer as it was in the late 1980s. The development has followed the typical pattern for diffusion of innovations and by 2002 the market supply seemed to have surpassed the equilibrium supply by around 30% and a potential adjustment is ahead...... for organic development be expected in other countries? Will the supply in other EU markets also surpass market equilibrium? Are the Danish experiences with respect to policy choices and power-play of dominant players in processing and distribution industry of general relevance? Are the maturity gains...... observed in the Danish organic industry potential in other markets? Is increased international trade beneficial?...

  16. Long-run equilibrium relationships in the international stock market factor systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyung-Suk Choi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to investigate the international linkages among local, country-specific stock market factors in order to better understand the dependence structure of increasingly integrated world financial markets. The seeming discordance between Fama and French (1998 and Griffin (2002 regarding the multi-factor model in the international stock markets motivates us to study the international relationship among local factors. With the individual stock data from the six major developed countries in the international stock market, we compose daily returns to the Fama-French three factors (i.e. market, size, and value and the momentum factor over the period from January 2000 to June 2010. We investigate the international linkages among local stock market factors, focusing on their equilibrium relationship in the integrated world financial market. The cointegration analysis indicates that local factor indices, constructed from the cumulative factor returns, are cointegrated for each of the four factor classes. Thus, we conclude that local factors are globally bound to each other through a long-run equilibrium relationship and that although stock market factors may be local, rather than global, individual stock returns are driven by common global stochastic trends.

  17. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  18. Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from the European Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Kajurová

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the causal relation between the stock markets development and economic growth in the EU countries. In particular, the nature and causality direction is investigated. Panel data techniques including cointegration tests, vector error correction models and Granger causality tests were applied to indicate the nature and direction of causality. Long‑run effects of the economic growth upon stock market development was detected in the sample of the Euro area member countries. In addition, the short‑run mutual relations between growth and stock markets were indicated in that country‑sample. In the non‑Euro area countries, only short‑run impact of the stock market development upon economic growth was found. The empirical findings bring up implications for macroeconomic stabilization and development policies. The indicated relations also play a role in predicting economic growth and stock markets’ development.

  19. Universal and nonuniversal allometric scaling behaviors in the visibility graphs of world stock market indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian Mengcen; Jiang Zhiqiang; Zhou Weixing

    2010-01-01

    The investigations of financial markets from a complex network perspective have unveiled many phenomenological properties, in which the majority of these studies map the financial markets into one complex network. In this work, we investigate 30 world stock market indices through their visibility graphs by adopting the visibility algorithm to convert each single stock index into one visibility graph. A universal allometric scaling law is uncovered in the minimal spanning trees, whose scaling exponent is independent of the stock market and the length of the stock index. In contrast, the maximal spanning trees and the random spanning trees do not exhibit universal allometric scaling behaviors. There are marked discrepancies in the allometric scaling behaviors between the stock indices and the Brownian motions. Using surrogate time series, we find that these discrepancies are caused by the fat-tailedness of the return distribution and the nonlinear long-term correlation.

  20. Asset Pricing Behaviour with Dual-Beta in Case of Pakistani Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Attiya Y. Javid; Eatzaz Ahmad

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the dynamics of beta by the asymmetric response of beta to bullish and bearish market environment on 50 stocks traded in Karachi Stock Exchange during 1993-2007. The results show that the betas increase (decrease) when the market is bullish (bearish). The results however suggest that investors receive a positive premium for accepting down-side risk, while a negative premium is associated with up-market beta. The results suggest that the conditional Fama and French thre...

  1. An Assessment of Theories Underlying the Operations of the Nigerian Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Chris O. Udoka

    2014-01-01

    This paper aimed at determining the theories and approaches that inform the operational efficiency of the Nigerian stock market, considering the economic, financial, political and environmental factors inducing shareholder behaviour in the market. Taking a desk review of the theories, against the wealth maximization expectations of investors, the paper notes that due to imperfections in the Nigerian stock market, certain policies are clearly unsuitable in informing shareholder behaviour and c...

  2. 75 FR 59311 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing of a Proposed Rule...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-27

    ... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing of a Proposed Rule... hereby given that on September 17, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Nasdaq'' or the ``Exchange... market hours when stock pause triggers are not in effect under Rule 4120(a)(11) (or comparable rule of...

  3. 75 FR 51861 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ...-2010-100] Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule... on August 6, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or the ``Exchange'') filed with the... Acquisition of an ECN by The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc.) and 52902 (December 7, 2005), 70 FR 73810 (December 13...

  4. 76 FR 65311 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-20

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... is hereby given that on October 6, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange'' or ``NASDAQ... routing functions for The NASDAQ Stock Market (``NASDAQ'') as well as, pursuant to recent proposed rule...

  5. 76 FR 27699 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-12

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... given that on April 28, 2011 The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange'' or ``NASDAQ'') filed with the... inside market and the midpoint for stocks at this price level is likely to be extremely small, and...

  6. 77 FR 10794 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-23

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... February 13, 2012, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or ``Exchange'') filed with the Securities and... Change The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC proposes to modify Chapter XV, Section 2, governing pricing for NASDAQ...

  7. 77 FR 37086 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-20

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To Adopt a... hereby given that on June 6, 2012, the NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or the ``Exchange'') filed... obligations, NASDAQ requires market makers for each stock in which they are registered to continuously...

  8. 76 FR 71088 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-16

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... November 1, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or ``Exchange'') filed with the Securities and... Change The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC proposes to create a new Rule 7056 entitled ``NASDAQ Options Fee...

  9. 76 FR 44076 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-22

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change To Amend NASDAQ Stock Market Equities Trading Rules 4757 and 4758 and NASDAQ Options... NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange'' or ``NASDAQ'') filed with the Securities and Exchange...

  10. 78 FR 70388 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-25

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a...\\ notice is hereby given that on November 8, 2013, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or ``Exchange... [bracketed]. New text is italicized. NASDAQ Stock Market Rules Options Rules * * * * * Chapter VI Trading...

  11. 75 FR 77034 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-10

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of..., notice is hereby given that on December 3, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Nasdaq'' or ``Exchange...) Pricing Obligations. For NMS stocks (as defined in Rule 600 under Regulation NMS) a Market Maker shall...

  12. 77 FR 63384 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-16

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... is hereby given that on October 1, 2012, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or ``Exchange... of the Proposed Rule Change The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC proposes to modify Chapter XV, entitled...

  13. 76 FR 34786 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-14

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... is hereby given that, on May 25, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange'' or ``NASDAQ... markets in a large number of stocks and that contribute to price discovery by posting attributable quotes...

  14. 75 FR 61797 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-06

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a... given that on September 27, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Nasdaq'') filed with the Securities and... connection with the Nasdaq Stock Market. See Securities Exchange Act Release No. 34-61460 (February 1, 2010...

  15. Viscoelasticity and pattern formations in stock market indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gündüz, Güngör; Gündüz, Aydın

    2017-06-01

    of stock index value although they describe different properties. Entropy fluctuates at fast increase and fast fall of index value, and fluctuation becomes very high at minimum values of the index. The curvature of a circle passing from the two ends of the vector and the point of intersection of its horizontal and vertical components designates the reactivity involved in the market and the radius of circle behaves somehow similar to entropy and Wiener noise. The change of entropy and Wiener noise with radius exhibits patterns with four branches.

  16. An Intense Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Prediction Using Logistic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    investor can alter the stock price as defined by expectation. The other work found in the literature, that did not make use of the ANN is the one presented by Emenike K.O (2010) [12], the Autoregressive Integrated. Moving Average (p,d,q) model [ARIMA] was used to models and forecasts stock prices of the Nigerian Stock ...

  17. Does Implementation of Big Data Analytics Improve Firms’ Market Value? Investors’ Reaction in Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hansol Lee

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, due to the development of social media, multimedia, and the Internet of Things (IoT, various types of data have increased. As the existing data analytics tools cannot cover this huge volume of data, big data analytics becomes one of the emerging technologies for business today. Considering that big data analytics is an up-to-date term, in the present study, we investigated the impact of implementing big data analytics in the short-term perspective. We used an event study methodology to investigate the changes in stock price caused by announcements on big data analytics solution investment. A total of 54 investment announcements of firms publicly traded in NASDAQ and NYSE from 2010 to 2015 were collected. Our results empirically demonstrate that announcement of firms’ investment on big data solution leads to positive stock market reactions. In addition, we also found that investments on small vendors’ solution with industry-oriented functions tend to result in higher abnormal returns than those on big vendors’ solution with general functions. Finally, our results also suggest that stock market investors highly evaluate big data analytics investments of big firms as compared to those of small firms.

  18. The Efficiency Market Theory: A Case of Commercial Banks Stocks in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mesagan Peter Ekundayo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on testing the efficient market theory in Nigeria. The quest to stimulate research interest in testing this theory using the stock price before announcement of dividends and the stock price after the announcement of dividends motivates the conduct of this study. To this end, a pilot experiment is conducted using the stock prices of five commercial banks that are listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange market. The sample are selected based on the fact that the selected banks have concluded their financial year on or before the end of September 2017. In the result, it was observed that that announcement did not make any significant difference between the stock prices in the banking sector in Nigeria and therefore conclude that the efficient market theory does not hold in the Nigerian Stock Exchange market. We recommend that there should be consistent sensitization of investors by banks listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange market and stock broking firms to guide them in making informed investment decisions make it difficult for individual investors and agents to ‘beat the market’.

  19. Static and dynamic factors in an information-based multi-asset artificial stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponta, Linda; Pastore, Stefano; Cincotti, Silvano

    2018-02-01

    An information-based multi-asset artificial stock market characterized by different types of stocks and populated by heterogeneous agents is presented. In the market, agents trade risky assets in exchange for cash. Beside the amount of cash and of stocks owned, each agent is characterized by sentiments and agents share their sentiments by means of interactions that are determined by sparsely connected networks. A central market maker (clearing house mechanism) determines the price processes for each stock at the intersection of the demand and the supply curves. Single stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns whereas multivariate price process exhibits both static and dynamic stylized facts, i.e., the presence of static factors and common trends. Static factors are studied making reference to the cross-correlation of returns of different stocks. The common trends are investigated considering the variance-covariance matrix of prices. Results point out that the probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix of returns shows the presence of sectors, similar to those observed on real empirical data. As regarding the dynamic factors, the variance-covariance matrix of prices point out a limited number of assets prices series that are independent integrated processes, in close agreement with the empirical evidence of asset price time series of real stock markets. These results remarks the crucial dependence of statistical properties of multi-assets stock market on the agents' interaction structure.

  20. Tests of nonuniversality of the stock return distributions in an emerging market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Guo-Hua; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2010-12-01

    There is convincing evidence showing that the probability distributions of stock returns in mature markets exhibit power-law tails and both the positive and negative tails conform to the inverse cubic law. It supports the possibility that the tail exponents are universal at least for mature markets in the sense that they do not depend on stock market, industry sector, and market capitalization. We investigate the distributions of intraday returns at different time scales ( Δt=1, 5, 15, and 30 min) of all the A-share stocks traded in the Chinese stock market, which is the largest emerging market in the world. We find that the returns can be well fitted by the q-Gaussian distribution and the tails have power-law relaxations with the exponents increasing with Δt and being well outside the Lévy stable regime for individual stocks. We provide statistically significant evidence showing that, at small time scales Δtmarket capitalization. When Δt>15 min, no conclusive evidence is found for a possible dependence of the tail exponent on the turnover rate or the market capitalization. Our findings indicate that the intraday return distributions at small time scales are not universal in emerging stock markets but might be universal at large time scales.

  1. Hybrid machine learning technique for forecasting Dhaka stock market timing decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banik, Shipra; Khodadad Khan, A F M; Anwer, Mohammad

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting stock market has been a difficult job for applied researchers owing to nature of facts which is very noisy and time varying. However, this hypothesis has been featured by several empirical experiential studies and a number of researchers have efficiently applied machine learning techniques to forecast stock market. This paper studied stock prediction for the use of investors. It is always true that investors typically obtain loss because of uncertain investment purposes and unsighted assets. This paper proposes a rough set model, a neural network model, and a hybrid neural network and rough set model to find optimal buy and sell of a share on Dhaka stock exchange. Investigational findings demonstrate that our proposed hybrid model has higher precision than the single rough set model and the neural network model. We believe this paper findings will help stock investors to decide about optimal buy and/or sell time on Dhaka stock exchange.

  2. Gambling on the stock market: an unexplored issue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granero, Roser; Tárrega, Salomé; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Aymamí, Neus; Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Moragas, Laura; Custal, Núria; Orekhova, Lisa; Savvidou, Lamprini G; Menchón, José M; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana

    2012-08-01

    Stock market investment (SMI) is one of the most socially acceptable types of gambling, which, however, can turn into a gambling problem. Because it is barely examined, we compared a series of clinical, psychopathologic, and personality variables in SMI gambling patients (both as primary and secondary problem) with a group of traditional pathologic gamblers (PGs). A total sample of 1470 PGs (1376 patients without SMIs [PG-SMI], 76 patients with SMI as a secondary gambling problem [PG+SMI], and 18 patients with SMI as a primary gambling problem [SMI+PG]) participated in this study. All participants were diagnosed according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria. The following instruments were used: the South Oaks Gambling Screen, the Symptom Check List-90 Items-Revised, the Temperament and Character Inventory-Revised, and other clinical and psychopathologic indices. The 3 patient groups' profiles were statistically similar in psychometrical measures. The risk of having SMI increased for patients with higher education, and the presence of SMI as a primary problem in PGs increased with university study level and higher scores on the personality trait of cooperativeness. The results of this study indicate comparability of SMI gamblers with PGs in their general clinical profile and in psychopathology and personality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A study of correlations in the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Chandradew; Banerjee, Kinjal

    2015-08-01

    We study the various sectors of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for a period of 8 years from April 2006 to March 2014. Using the data of daily returns of a period of eight years we make a direct model free analysis of the pattern of the sectorial indices movement and the correlations among them. Our analysis shows significant auto correlation among the individual sectors and also strong cross-correlation among sectors. We also find that auto correlations in some of the sectors persist in time. This is a very significant result and has not been reported so far in Indian context. These findings will be very useful in model building for prediction of price movement of equities, derivatives and portfolio management. We show that the Random Walk Hypothesis is not applicable in modeling the Indian market and mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis based portfolio optimization might be required. We also find that almost all sectors are highly correlated during large fluctuation periods and have only moderate correlation during normal periods.

  4. A global network topology of stock markets: Transmitters and receivers of spillover effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain; Hernandez, Jose Areola; Rehman, Mobeen Ur; Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed; Zakaria, Muhammad

    2018-02-01

    This paper applies a bivariate cross-quantilogram approach to examine the spillover network structure in the stock markets of 58 countries according to bearish, normal and bullish market scenarios. Our aim is to identify the strongest interdependencies, the directionality of the spillover risk effects, and to detect those equity markets with the potential to cause global systemic risk. The results highlight the role of the US and Canadian equity markets as major spillover transmitters, while the stock markets of Romania, Taiwan and Mexico act mainly as spillover receivers. Particularly strong spillovers are observed from the Canadian and US equity markets towards the Irish market, and from the Brazilian equity market towards the Kenyan equivalent. The equity market networks suggest that only the US equity market can trigger systemic risk on a global scale. Implications of the results are discussed.

  5. Cross-correlation asymmetries and causal relationships between stock and market risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borysov, Stanislav S; Balatsky, Alexander V

    2014-01-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa.

  6. Cross-Correlation Asymmetries and Causal Relationships between Stock and Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borysov, Stanislav S.; Balatsky, Alexander V.

    2014-01-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994–2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa. PMID:25162697

  7. Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  8. Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  9. Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plamen Ch Ivanov

    Full Text Available We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising

  10. Research on the Dividend Policy of Listed Company and Fluctuation Effect of Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Hua

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the dividend policy and theory, this article takes the events that A stock of all the listed banking companies (16 in total issued dividend in the CSI stock market for 5 years from 2008 to 2012 as the investigation samples to inspect the relevance of dividend policy with the fluctuation of stock price and transaction volume, thus to prove the dividend policy is an efficient mechanism for information transmission.

  11. Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    John Clark; Elizabeth Berko

    1996-01-01

    We investigate the economically and statistically significant positive correlation between monthly foreign purchases of Mexican stocks and Mexican stock returns. We find that a 1 percent of market capitalization surprise foreign inflow is associated with a 13 percent increase in Mexican stock prices. We explore whether this correlation might be explained by permanent reductions in conditional expected returns resulting from expansion of the investor base along the lines modeled by Merton (198...

  12. The Roles of Stock Exchanges in Emerging Markets: The Case of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article revisits the discussion on the functions that the emerging stock markets are intended to perform when they are established. In order to fulfill such functions, certain levels of "market micro-structure" characteristics should be obtained. Such micro-structure features include liquidity, market size and enabling ...

  13. Structural Breaks in the Mexico's Integration into the World Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi; Jouini, Jamel

    2009-01-01

    This article investigates the evolution of the Mexican stock market integration into the world market. First, we estimate the time-varying Mexican degree of market integration using an international conditional version of the CAPM with segmentation effects. Second, we study the structural breaks in this series. Finally, we relate the obtained results to important facts and economic events

  14. Improving marketing strategies of sea freight forwarding services - Thien Hong Joint Stock company

    OpenAIRE

    Pham, Thanh Huyen

    2015-01-01

    Analyzing and improving marketing strategies of Thien Hong Joint Stock company - a newborn company in the field of sea freight forwarding service in Vietnam. This thesis focused on the 4Ps (product, price, placement, promotion) in marketing strategy, how to apply the theory of services marketing in a business to business company and a special industry effectively.

  15. Asymmetric Effect of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Volatility in ASEAN5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trung Thanh BUI

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Among many channels, stock market directly transmits the effect of monetary policy decisions because it quickly responds to policy news. The primary objective of this paper is to clarify the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on stock market volatility, which is believed to have adverse effects on the economy recovery, over its bull and bear period. We performed empirical research in a panel setting in which monthly data of ASEAN5 (Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia was collected from January 2006 to June 2013. To reduce identification and endogeneity problem, we used short-term interest rate as a proxy for the stance of monetary policy. The Markov switching model was used to identify the bull and bear periods of stock market. We employed feasible GLS estimator to examine the possible asymmetry. The empirical results have demonstrated the existence of the asymmetry in the monetary policy effect on the stock market volatility over stock market cycle in ASEAN5. The findings have suggested that monetary policy is more effective in bear market and that a tight monetary policy increases the probability of shifting stock market from bullish to bearish state.

  16. An Empirical Analysis of Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lazarov Darko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper has two goals. The first goal is to investigate the influence of stock market development on economic growth for a group of 14 transition economies from the Central and South-East European (CSEE region in the period 2002-2012, while the second is to analyze the main characteristics and specificities of the stock market in the Republic of Macedonia. To fulfil the first goal, we apply panel regression models (fixed and random effects and a dynamic panel model (Generalized Method of Moments – GMM, while we use a single country approach and comparative analysis to examine the main characteristics of the Macedonian stock market. The estimated results indicate that stock market development is positive and significantly correlated with economic growth. Additionally, the comparative analysis of the stock market in the Republic of Macedonia suggests that the Macedonian stock market is still underdeveloped and faces a number of challenges before it can enter a new phase of development after the negative impact of the global financial crisis. Those challenges include capital market regional integration and the harmonization of legal and institutional frameworks such as bankruptcy procedures, accounting and reporting standards, public sector regulatory bodies, corporate governance and a liberalized trade regime.

  17. Can the Stock Market anticipate Future Operating Performance? Evidence from Equity Rights Issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kabir, M.R.; Roosenboom, P.G.J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper examines whether the stock market valuation impact of rights issues is consistent with subsequent operating performance of issuing firms. Analysing a sample of rights issues in the Netherlands, we find that a significant stock price decline takes place with the announcement of rights

  18. The impact of European antitrust policy : Evidence from the stock market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Günster (Andrea); M.A. van Dijk (Mathijs)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractWe evaluate the impact of European antitrust policy by analyzing the stock market response to investiga-tion announcements, infringement decisions, and appeals for 253 companies involved in 118 Europeanantitrust cases over 1974–2004. We find significantly negative stock price

  19. Political Market Orientation and Strategic Party Postures in Danish Political Parties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.; Henneberg, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – This paper investigates the relationship between the strategic postures and political market orientation profile of two Danish parties. Profile stability at the organisational level is used as a control variable. Design/methodology/approach – The strategic political postures of two Danish...... are used to control for organisational stability. Findings – The self-typing study revealed that Party A was perceived to follow a Relationship Builder posture, and Party B a Convinced Ideologist posture. However, both market orientation profiles resembled the organisational structures of a Convinced...... in the political sphere. More specifically it empirically links political market orientation as an issue of political marketing implementation on the one hand, and strategic postures of parties as a strategic issue on the other, following a configuration theory logic. Research limitations...

  20. Change Management at a Danish University: The Introduction of a Common Market for Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundgaard, Helle

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the approach to the management of change taken by a Danish university when introducing a university-wide market for education and it explores the different positions taken by some of the central stakeholders in one of the faculties involved. I argue that neither the inadequacies of a popular management model nor insufficient…

  1. Field Experience from Li-Ion BESS Delivering Primary Frequency Regulation in the Danish Energy Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef; Stroe, Daniel Ioan; Lærke, Rasmus

    2014-01-01

    In this paper it is presented the practical experience from operating a 1.6 MW/ 0.4 MWh lithium ion battery energy storage system, which is providing primary frequency regulation service on the Danish energy market. Aspects of the battery system requirements and the used control strategy for prim...

  2. Investigating the relationship between auditor’s opinion and stock return in the companies listed at Tehran stock exchange market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Akbar Farzinfar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This research investigates the relationship between auditor’s opinion and stock return in the companies listed at Tehran stock exchange market. In this study, all required data are collected from aware shareholders and provide a sampling of 130 questionnaires, the data collected over the period 2010-2011 using test methods such as computer software, data analysis and statistical methods to answer research questions. According to research result through questionnaires and tests, there is a significant relationship between stock returns and the auditor's opinion, in fact, for aware shareholders of the company the auditor’s opinion has a special message. This message is based on the results of study hypothesis in comparison with previous research with regard to changes in the questionnaire and provides assumptions that are more detailed. The first finding is that unqualified audit report has a positive impact on stock returns of companies with a medium to low degree. Adverse audit report has a negative impact on stock returns of companies with medium to high degree. Disclaimer of audit report has a negative impact on stock returns of companies with medium to high degree. Finally, qualifying paragraphs, which modified the items of income statement items have more impact in comparison with qualifying paragraphs which modified the Balance Sheet items.

  3. The Unemployment-Stock Market Relationship in South Africa: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Cointegration Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Phiri

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we examine linear and nonlinear cointegration and causal relations between unemployment and stock market returns in South Africa using quarterly data collected between 1994:Q1 and 2016:Q1. Our empirical results reveal significant cointegration effects between the time series in both linear and nonlinear models, even though both frameworks ultimately reject the notion of any causal relations between the variables. Collectively, our study rejects the notion of unemployment being a good predictor for stock market returns and neither do developments in the stock market have any effect on the unemployment rate. Such evidence advocates for weak-form efficiency in the JSE equity prices whereby unemployment data cannot help investors to predict the movement of future share prices and further suggests that policymakers cannot rely on stock market development as an avenue towards lowering the prevailingly high levels of unemployment as set in current macroeconomic policy objectives.

  4. Volatility measurement with directional change in Chinese stock market: Statistical property and investment strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junjun; Xiong, Xiong; He, Feng; Zhang, Wei

    2017-04-01

    The stock price fluctuation is studied in this paper with intrinsic time perspective. The event, directional change (DC) or overshoot, are considered as time scale of price time series. With this directional change law, its corresponding statistical properties and parameter estimation is tested in Chinese stock market. Furthermore, a directional change trading strategy is proposed for invest in the market portfolio in Chinese stock market, and both in-sample and out-of-sample performance are compared among the different method of model parameter estimation. We conclude that DC method can capture important fluctuations in Chinese stock market and gain profit due to the statistical property that average upturn overshoot size is bigger than average downturn directional change size. The optimal parameter of DC method is not fixed and we obtained 1.8% annual excess return with this DC-based trading strategy.

  5. The Effect of Stock Market on Economic Growth In Nigeria | Sylvester ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ordinary least squares regression (OLS) was employed using the data from 1989 to 2008. The results indicated that there is a positive relationship between economic growth and all the stock market development variables used. With 99 percent ...

  6. Cointegration and causality analysis of dynamic linkage between stock market and equity mutual funds in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasipa Pojanavatee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The existing literature finds conflicting results on the magnitude of price linkages between equity mutual funds and the stock market. The study contends that in an optimal lagged model, the expectations of future prices using knowledge of past price behaviour in a particular equity mutual fund category will improve forecasts of prices of other equity mutual fund categories and the stock market index. The evidence shows that the long-run pricing of equity mutual funds is cointegrated with the stock market index. In the short run, the results indicate that some equity mutual fund categories possess both long-run and short-run exogeneity with the stock market. Therefore, the short-run dynamic indicates short-run Granger causal links running between different equity mutual fund categories.

  7. Systematic Risk Factors for Australian Stock Market Returns: a Cointegration Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazharul H. Kazi

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper identifies the systematic risk factors for the Australian stock market by applyingthe cointegration technique of Johansen. In conformity with the finance literature andinvestors’ common intuition, relevant a priori variables are chosen to proxy for Australiansystematic risk factors. The results show that only a few systematic risk factors are dominantfor Australian stock market price movements in the long-run while short-run dynamics are inplace. It is observed that the linear combination of all a priori variables is cointegratedalthough not all variables are significantly influential. The findings show that bank interestrate, corporate profitability, dividend yield, industrial production and, to a lesser extent, globalmarket movements are significantly influencing the Australian stock market returns in thelong-run; while in the short-run it is being adjusted each quarter by its own performance,interest rate and global stock market movements of previous quarter.

  8. Lead-lag relationships between stock and market risk within linear response theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borysov, Stanislav; Balatsky, Alexander

    2015-03-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risks (standard deviation of daily stock returns) and market risk (standard deviation of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over stocks, using historical stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. The observed historical dynamics suggests that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when individual stock risks affect market risk and vice versa. This work was supported by VR 621-2012-2983.

  9. Impact of monetary policy changes on the Chinese monetary and stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yong; Luo, Yong; Xiong, Jie; Zhao, Fei; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2013-10-01

    The impact of monetary policy changes on the monetary market and stock market in China is investigated in this study. The changes of two major monetary policies, the interest rate and required reserve ratio, are analyzed in a study period covering seven years on the interbank monetary market and Shanghai stock market. We find that the monetary market is related to the macro economy trend and we also find that the monetary change surprises both of lowering and raising bring significant impacts to the two markets and the two markets respond to the changes differently. The results suggest that the impact of fluctuations is much larger for raising policy changes than lowering changes in the monetary market on policy announcing and effective dates. This is consistent with the “sign effect”, i.e. bad news brings a greater impact than good news. By studying the event window of each policy change, we also find that the “sign effect” still exists before and after each change in the monetary market. A relatively larger fluctuation is observed before the event date, which indicates that the monetary market might have a certain ability to predict a potential monetary change, while it is kept secret by the central bank before official announcement. In the stock market, we investigate how the returns and spreads of the Shanghai stock market index respond to the monetary changes. Evidences suggest the stock market is influenced but in a different way than the monetary market. The climbing of returns after the event dates for the lowering policy agrees with the theory that lowering changes can provide a monetary supply to boost the market and drive the stock returns higher but with a delay of 2 to 3 trading days on average. While in the bear market, the lowering policy brings larger volatility to the market on average than the raising ones. These empirical findings are useful for policymakers to understand how monetary policy changes impact the monetary and stock markets

  10. Cross-sectional test of the Fama-French three-factor model: Evidence from Bangladesh stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Md. Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah

    2014-09-01

    Stock market is an important part of a country's economy. It supports the country's economic development and progress by encouraging the efficiency and profitability of firms. This research was designed to examine the risk-return association of companies in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market of Bangladesh by using the Fama-French three-factor model structure. The model is based on three factors, which are stock beta, SMB (difference in returns of the portfolio with small market capitalisation minus that with big market capitalisation) and HML (difference in returns of the portfolio with high book-to-market ratio minus that with low book-to-market ratio). This study focused on the DSE market as it is one of the frontier emerging stock markets of South Asia. For this study, monthly stock returns from 71 non-financial companies were used for the period of January 2002 to December 2011. DSI Index was used as a proxy for the market portfolio and Bangladesh government 3-Month T-bill rate was used as the proxy for the risk-free asset. It was found that large capital stocks outperform small capital stocks and stocks with lower book-to-market ratios outperform stocks with higher book-to-market ratios in the context of Bangladesh stock market.

  11. The US stock market leads the federal funds rate and treasury bond yields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Kun; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Cheng, Si-Wei; Sornette, Didier

    2011-01-01

    Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.

  12. Deep learning networks for stock market analysis and prediction : methodology, data representations, and case studies.

    OpenAIRE

    Chong, E.; Han, C.; Park, F.C.

    2017-01-01

    We offer a systematic analysis of the use of deep learning networks for stock market analysis and prediction. Its ability to extract features from a large set of raw data without relying on prior knowledge of predictors makes deep learning potentially attractive for stock market prediction at high frequencies. Deep learning algorithms vary considerably in the choice of network structure, activation function, and other model parameters, and their performance is known to depend heavily on the m...

  13. Do on/off time series models reproduce emerging stock market comovements?

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamed el hédi Arouri; Fredj Jawadi

    2011-01-01

    Using nonlinear modeling tools, this study investigates the comovements between the Mexican and the world stock markets over the last three decades. While the previous works only highlight some evidence of comovements, our paper aims to specify the different time-varying links and mechanisms characterizing the Mexican stock market through the comparison of two nonlinear error correction models (NECMs). Our findings point out strong evidence of time-varying and nonlinear mean-reversion and lin...

  14. Model of formation of low-risk stock portfolio in modern financial markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Дмитро Сергійович Богач

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The basic principles of formation of an investment portfolio in modern financial markets are determined. A method of forming stock portfolio due to the statistical properties of stationary process and relations between the behavior of stocks and economic sector, characterizing these actions, is proposed. Optimal points of recalculation of model depends on changes in current trends in the financial market is described

  15. Stock Market Development in Africa: do all macroeconomic financial intermediary determinants matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Asongu, Anutechia Simplice

    2010-01-01

    This study brings light to some financial intermediary development factors that could negate stock market development, as well as those that could improve it. Using a panel of eight countries, from 1989 to 2008, we derive indexes via Principal Component Analysis; based on which panel fixed effect regressions are performed. The principal edge of this work is that, in policy making, not all aspects of financial intermediary development should be prioritized for stock market development.

  16. The Effects of Crude Oil on Stock Markets with use of Markov Switching Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wiese, Thor August Mediaas

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis, a two regime Markov switching (MS) model is implemented to examine the relationship between crude oil, both brent oil and WTI, and stock markets. In particular, the model is applied to stock markets in both oil importing and exporting countries which include Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States. This paper first evaluates the significance of oil parameters in the detected regimes, where the two regimes respond to low mean...

  17. The Response of Australian Stock, Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets to Foreign Asset Returns and Volatilities

    OpenAIRE

    Paul D. McNelis

    1993-01-01

    This paper is a data-analytic study of the relationships among international asset price volatilities and the time-varying correlations of asset returns in a small open economy (Australia) with international asset returns. Making use of recent developments in time-series approaches to volatility estimation, impulse response functions, variance decomposition, and Kalman filtering, I show that the Australian stock market volatility is most closely linked with volatility in the UK stock market, ...

  18. Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Evidences from Asia-4 Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Azam, Muhammad; Haseeb, Muhammad; Samsi, Aznita binti; Raji, Jimoh Olajide

    2016-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is to examine the role of stock markets in economic growth for four Asian countries namely Bangladesh, India, China and Singapore. Annual time series cross country data over the period 1991 to 2012 and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approaches an analytical technique are used. Our results suggest that there is long-term cointegration among economic growth, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), stock market development and inflation. The long-ter...

  19. The Preferences and Investment Behaviour of Small Investors in the Hong Kong Bank Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Tai-Yuen HON

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the behaviour of small investors in the Hong Kong bank stock market.The objective of this study was to researchthe factors, investing characteristics, and decision making processes. Informed by behavioural finance, we develop four hypotheses regarding the opinions and investment behaviour of small investors in the Hong Kong bank stock market. These hypotheses are then tested with the data collected from 1,054 small investors via a survey. By doing so, we hope to contri...

  20. 76 FR 55988 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-09

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...,\\2\\ notice is hereby given that, on August 31, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange'' or... perfect the mechanism of a free and open market and a national market system, and, in general to protect...

  1. 77 FR 4610 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-30

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... hereby given that on January 11, 2012, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Nasdaq'') filed with the Securities... impediments to and perfect the mechanism of a free and open market and a national market system, and, in...

  2. 75 FR 78789 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-16

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... is hereby given that on December 9, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or the ``Exchange... market and a national market system, and, in general, to protect investors and the public interest. The...

  3. 77 FR 43618 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Order Approving a Proposed Rule...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-25

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Order Approving a Proposed Rule Change To Modify Its Corporate Governance Rules July 19, 2012. I. Introduction On May 17, 2012, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC... market and a national market system and, in general, to protect investors and the public interest.\\21...

  4. 75 FR 10541 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-08

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... hereby given that on February 24, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Nasdaq'') filed with the... impediments to and perfect the mechanism of a free and open market and a national market system, and, in...

  5. 76 FR 75924 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-05

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... November 22, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Exchange''), filed with the Securities and Exchange... securities, remove impediments to and perfect the mechanism of a free and open market and a national market...

  6. 75 FR 16877 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-02

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...\\ notice is hereby given that on March 15, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Nasdaq'') filed with the... impediments to and perfect the mechanism of a free and open market and a national market system. The proposed...

  7. 75 FR 43591 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-26

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... given that on June 30, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Nasdaq'' or the ``Exchange'') filed with the... mechanism of a free and open market and a national market system, and, in general, to protect investors and...

  8. 78 FR 6842 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Order Approving a Proposed Rule...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-31

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Order Approving a Proposed Rule Change To Establish a... NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Exchange'' or ``NASDAQ'') filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission... optional means for clients to receive third party market data and NASDAQ TotalView ITCH market data. NASDAQ...

  9. 77 FR 31050 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Designation of a Longer...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-24

    ...-NASDAQ-2012-043] Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Designation of a... Establish the Market Quality Program May 18, 2012. On March 23, 2012, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ... rule change to establish the Market Quality Program. On March 29, 2012, the Exchange submitted...

  10. 78 FR 12116 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Designation of a Longer...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-21

    ... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Designation of a Longer... Establish the Market Quality Program February 14, 2013. On December 7, 2012, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC... proposed rule change to establish the Market Quality Program (``MQP'' or ``Program'') on a pilot basis. On...

  11. Asymmetry of Returns in the Australian STOCK Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunner, Susan M.; Brooks, Louise; Storer, Robin G.

    We use econophysics techniques to investigate the characteristics of the distribution of returns from the All Ordinaries Index and from optimal portfolios constructed from individual stocks on the Australian Stock Exchange. We find in general that the tails of the distributions are asymmetric and that the negative tail favours a power-law behaviour while the positive tail is more Gaussian.

  12. Stock market development and integration in SADC (Southern African Development Community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil K. Bundoo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the extent of stock market integration in SADC by first analyzing beta and sigma convergence and then using cointegration analysis. The US market and the SSA index were used as benchmarks. The sample period was from January 1999 to December 2011 using daily market index data. We observe beta convergence but not sigma convergence; though the sigma values are falling for most of the SADC countries. Under normal conditions, no cointegrating vector was identified when using the US market as benchmark. When using the SSA index as benchmark one cointegrating vector was identified. The paper also takes stock of the extent of software and hardware stock market integration in SADC. The SADC stock exchanges must work towards greater integration so that they can attract more sustained portfolio flows rather than volatile portfolio flows and also greater FDI flows which are much needed for the financial and economic development of the SADC countries. We also need to consolidate and reduce the number of exchanges with the view to improve market capitalization, liquidity, market infrastructure, governance amongst others but most importantly to increase the visibility, robustness and reputation of SADC stock markets at the international level.

  13. A multi-assets artificial stock market with zero-intelligence traders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponta, L.; Raberto, M.; Cincotti, S.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a multi-assets artificial financial market populated by zero-intelligence traders with finite financial resources is presented. The market is characterized by different types of stocks representing firms operating in different sectors of the economy. Zero-intelligence traders follow a random allocation strategy which is constrained by finite resources, past market volatility and allocation universe. Within this framework, stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering, fat-tailed distribution of returns and reversion to the mean. Moreover, the cross-correlations between returns of different stocks are studied using methods of random matrix theory. The probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix shows the presence of outliers, similar to those recently observed on real data for business sectors. It is worth noting that business sectors have been recovered in our framework without dividends as only consequence of random restrictions on the allocation universe of zero-intelligence traders. Furthermore, in the presence of dividend-paying stocks and in the case of cash inflow added to the market, the artificial stock market points out the same structural results obtained in the simulation without dividends. These results suggest a significative structural influence on statistical properties of multi-assets stock market.

  14. Stock Market Fluctuations and Self-Harm among Children and Adolescents in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Wilfred Hing-Sang; Lee, James Chun-Yin; Ho, Frederick Ka-Wing; Li, Tim Man-Ho; Ip, Patrick; Chow, Chun-Bong

    2017-06-09

    Although a few studies investigated the impact of stock market fluctuations on population health, the question of whether stock market fluctuations have an impact on self-harm in children and adolescents remain unanswered. This study therefore investigated the association between stock market fluctuations and self-harm among children and adolescents in Hong Kong. Daily self-harm attendance records were retrieved from all 18 local Accident and Emergency Departments (AED) from 2001 to 2012. 4931 children and adolescents who committed self-harm were included. The results indicated positive correlation between daily change in stock market index, Hang Seng Index (∇HSI, per 300 points), and daily self-harm incident risk of children and adolescents, without time lag between the two. The incident risk ratio for ∇HSI was 1.09 ( p = 0.0339) in children and 1.06 ( p = 0.0246) in adolescents. Importantly, non-trading days were found to impose significant protective effect in both groups against self-harm risk. Our results showed that stock market fluctuations were related to self-harm behaviors in children and adolescents. Parents and professionals should be educated about the potential harm of stock market fluctuations and the importance of effective parenting in reducing self-harm among children and adolescents.

  15. The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastianin, Andrea; Conti, Francesca; Manera, Matteo

    2016-01-01

    We study the effects of crude oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. We identify the causes underlying oil price shocks and gauge the impacts that oil supply and oil demand innovations have on financial volatility. We show that stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. On the contrary, demand shocks impact significantly on the volatility of the G7 stock markets. Our results suggest that economic policies and financial regulation activities designed to mitigate the adverse effects of unexpected oil price movements should be designed by looking at the source of the oil price shocks. - Highlights: • Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. • Econometric identification of the different causes of oil shocks. • Stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. • Demand shocks impact significantly on stock market volatility. • Policy measures should be designed by considering the source of oil shocks.

  16. Disciplining Disability under Danish Active Labour Market Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Marie Østergaard; Stone, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    This article explores how caseworkers are re-constructing disability in the Danish welfare system and disciplining themselves and clients according to the active labour policy paradigm. Combining Foucault’s ideas about discipline with Maynard-Moody and Musheno’s method of interpreting street...... administer social welfare and sick leave benefits based on disability as the primary eligibility criterion. We selected stories told by caseworkers that exemplify archetypes of good and bad citizens, good and bad clients, and good and bad caseworkers. Through interpretative analysis, we elucidate how...

  17. 75 FR 63229 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-14

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... hereby given that on October 1, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or the ``Exchange'') filed... has received approval to launch NASDAQ OMX PSX (``PSX'') \\3\\ as a new platform for trading NMS stocks...

  18. 76 FR 65306 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-20

    ...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of... hereby given that on October 6, 2011, the NASDAQ Stock Market, LLC (``NASDAQ'' or ``Exchange'') filed... experience a significant percentage price increase or decline. Once a stock is halted pursuant to the rule, a...

  19. Performance of technical trading rules: evidence from Southeast Asian stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tharavanij, Piyapas; Siraprapasiri, Vasan; Rajchamaha, Kittichai

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the profitability of technical trading rules in the five Southeast Asian stock markets. The data cover a period of 14 years from January 2000 to December 2013. The instruments investigated are five Southeast Asian stock market indices: SET index (Thailand), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLC index (Malaysia), FTSE Straits Times index (Singapore), JSX Composite index (Indonesia), and PSE composite index (the Philippines). Trading strategies investigated include Relative Strength Index, Stochastic oscillator, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, Directional Movement Indicator and On Balance Volume. Performances are compared to a simple Buy-and-Hold. Statistical tests are also performed. Our empirical results show a strong performance of technical trading rules in an emerging stock market of Thailand but not in a more mature stock market of Singapore. The technical trading rules also generate statistical significant returns in the Malaysian, Indonesian and the Philippine markets. However, after taking transaction costs into account, most technical trading rules do not generate net returns. This fact suggests different levels of market efficiency among Southeast Asian stock markets. This paper finds three new insights. Firstly, technical indicators does not help much in terms of market timing. Basically, traders cannot expect to buy at a relative low price and sell at a relative high price by just using technical trading rules. Secondly, technical trading rules can be beneficial to individual investors as they help them to counter the behavioral bias called disposition effects which is the tendency to sell winning stocks too soon and holding on to losing stocks too long. Thirdly, even profitable strategies could not reliably predict subsequent market directions. They make money from having a higher average profit from profitable trades than an average loss from unprofitable ones.

  20. Impact of Macroeconomic Surprises from Mexico and the United States on the Mexican Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Rodolfo Cermeño Bazán; M. Pavel Solís Montes

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies the relationship between the arrival of news on macroeconomic performance and the Mexican stock market. We examine the reaction of daily excess returns of the stock price index, “índice de precios y cotizaciones” (IPC), as well as of seven portfolios from the Mexican stock market, “Bolsa Mexicana de Valores” (BMV), to announcements on macroeconomic variables of Mexico and the US. We use GARCH models and focus on the unexpected or surprising component of the news about macro...