Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

Science.gov (United States)

Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

2014-07-01

The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.; Youngblood, R.; Reed, J.W.; McCann, M.; Talwani, T.; Wreathall, J.; Kurth, P.D.; Bandyopadhyay, K.

1986-03-01

A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs.

Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.

1986-03-01

A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs

Core damage risk indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szikszai, T.

1994-01-01

The purpose of this document is to show a method for the fast recalculation of the PSA. To avoid the information loose, it is necessary to simplify the PSA models, or at least reorganize them. The method, introduced in this document, require that preparation, so we try to show, how to do that. This document is an introduction. This is the starting point of the work related to the development of the risk indicators. In the future, with the application of this method, we are going to show an everyday use of the PSA results to produce the indicators of the core damage risk. There are two different indicators of the plant safety performance, related to the core damage risk. The first is the core damage frequency indicator (CDFI), and the second is the core damage probability indicator (CDPI). Of course, we cannot describe all of the possible ways to use these indicators, rather we will try to introduce the requirements to establish such an indicator system and the calculation process

Automatic characterization of loose parts impact damage risk parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glass, S.W.; Phillips, J.M.

1985-01-01

Loose parts caught in the high-velocity flows of the reactor coolant fluid strike against nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) components and can cause significant damage. Loose parts monitor systems (LPMS) have been available for years to detect metal-to-metal impacts. Once detected, however, an assessment of the damage risk potential for leaving the part in the system versus shutting it down and removing the part must be made. The principal parameters used in the damage risk assessment are time delays between the first and subsequent sensor indications (used to assess the impact location) and a correlation between the waveform and the impact energy of the part (how hard the part impacted). These parameters are not well suited to simple automatic techniques. The task has historically been performed by loose parts diagnostic experts who base much of their evaluation on experience and subjective interpretation of impact data waveforms. Three of the principal goals in developing the Babcock and Wilcox (B and W) LPMS-III were (a) to develop an accurate automatic assessment for the time delays, (b) to develop an automatic estimate of the impact energy, and (c) to present the data in a meaningful manner to the operator

Legal and legal-ethical aspects of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seiler, H.

1991-01-01

The article examines why human beings accept risks. An assessment of risk is always carried out in connection with the benefits to be had from an action which is a potential risk. Decisions on the acceptability of risks are the consequence of political assessments. An assessment of risk on a legal basis is only possible to a limited degree. What is important are the criteria according to which the acceptability of risks is determined. In this context, the concept of damage proves itself to be of central importance; this concept includes the question as to the degree to which such damage can be tolerated socially and politically, the question of future damage as well as the degree to which such damage is reversible. It would be ideal if those persons who are affected by potential damage were to be the ones to make such decisions, but this is extremely difficult to put into practice. Special care must be taken in regard to decisions which have repercussions for future generations or for the state of nature. In this case, the decision which those persons who are potentially affected would most probably make must be anticipated and taken into account as if they were here to participate in the decision-making process. (orig./HSCH) [de

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suski, N.; Wuest, C.

2011-01-01

Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre-Assessment

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Risk assessment of maize damage by wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) as the first step in implementing IPM and in reducing the environmental impact of soil insecticides.

Science.gov (United States)

Furlan, L; Contiero, B; Chiarini, F; Colauzzi, M; Sartori, E; Benvegnù, I; Fracasso, F; Giandon, P

2017-01-01

A survey of maize fields was conducted in northeast Italy from 1986 to 2014, resulting in a dataset of 1296 records including information on wireworm damage to maize, plant-attacking species, agronomic characteristics, landscape and climate. Three wireworm species, Agriotes brevis Candeze, A. sordidus Illiger and A. ustulatus Schäller, were identified as the dominant pest species in maize fields. Over the 29-year period surveyed, no yield reduction was observed when wireworm plant damage was below 15 % of the stand. A preliminary univariate analysis of risk assessment was applied to identify the main factors influencing the occurrence of damage. A multifactorial model was then applied by using the significant factors identified. This model allowed the research to highlight the strongest factors and to analyse how the main factors together influenced damage risk. The strongest factors were: A. brevis as prevalent damaging species, soil organic matter content >5 %, rotation including meadows and/or double crops, A. sordidus as prevalent damaging species, and surrounding landscape mainly meadows, uncultivated grass and double crops. The multifactorial model also showed how the simultaneous occurrence of two or more of the aforementioned risk factors can conspicuously increase the risk of wireworm damage to maize crops, while the probability of damage to a field with no-risk factors is always low (<1 %). These results make it possible to draw risk maps to identify low-risk and high-risk areas, a first step in implementing bespoke IPM procedures in an attempt to reduce the impact of soil insecticides significantly.

Subclinical organ damage and cardiovascular risk prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sehestedt, Thomas; Olsen, Michael H

2010-01-01

Traditional cardiovascular risk factors have poor prognostic value for individuals and screening for subclinical organ damage has been recommended in hypertension in recent guidelines. The aim of this review was to investigate the clinical impact of the additive prognostic information provided...... by measuring subclinical organ damage. We have (i) reviewed recent studies linking markers of subclinical organ damage in the heart, blood vessels and kidney to cardiovascular risk; (ii) discussed the evidence for improvement in cardiovascular risk prediction using markers of subclinical organ damage; (iii...

Concerning ethical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeckle, F.

1991-01-01

After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

Preliminary risk assessments of the small HTGR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.

1985-05-01

Preliminary investment and safety risk assessments were performed for a preconceptual design of a four-module 250-MW(t) side-by-side steel-vessel pebble bed HTGR plant. Broad event spectra were analyzed involving component damage resulting in unscheduled plant outages and fission product releases resulting in offsite doses. The preliminary assessment indicates at this stage of the design that two categories of events govern the investment risk envelope: primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plate-out activity that contaminates the confinement and turbogenerator damage which involves extensive turbine blade failure. Primary coolant leaks are important contributors because associated cleanup and decontamination requirements result in longer outages that arise from other events with comparable frequencies. Turbogenerator damage is the salient low-frequency investment risk accident due to the relatively long outages being experienced in the industry. Thermal transients are unimportant investment risk contributors because pressurized core heatups cause little damage, and depressurized core heatups occur at negligible frequencies relative to the forced outage goal. These preliminary results demonstrate investment and safety risk goal compliance at this stage in the design process. Studies are continuing in order to provide valuable insights into risk-significant events to assure a balanced approach to meeting user and regulatory requirements

Cumulative Effects of Several Target Organ Damages in Risk Assessment in Hypertension.

Science.gov (United States)

Harbaoui, Brahim; Courand, Pierre-Yves; Defforges, Alice; Khettab, Fouad; Milon, Hugues; Girerd, Nicolas; Lantelme, Pierre

2016-02-01

The prognostic value of screening multiple target organ damages (TODs) in hypertensive subjects has not been extensively studied. We estimated the prognostic value of considering 3 TODs in estimating the 10-year survival in hypertensive subjects. At baseline 1,848 out of a cohort of 1,963 hypertensive patients had a previous cardiovascular disease (CVD) or assessments of 3 TODs: Modification in Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) 300mg/day, Sokolow index >3.5 mV, and advanced hypertensive retinopathy (grades 3 and 4 of Keith-Wagener-Barker classification). The cohort was divided into 5 groups: 0 TOD (N = 978), 1 TOD (N = 308), 2 TODs (N = 94), 3 TODs (N = 30), and previous CVD (N = 438). After 10 years of follow-up, we observed 418 deaths of which 254 from cardiovascular cause. The adjusted hazard ratios for the major cardiovascular risk factors showed a progressive risk associated with the number of TODs. For all-cause death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] vs. 0 TOD of the other 4 groups were 1.91 [1.39-2.63], 1.99 [1.28-3.10], 4.33 [2.42-7.72], and 3.09 [2.35-4.05], respectively. For cardiovascular death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] were of the same order of magnitude: 2.14 [1.38-3.32], 2.12 [1.15-3.89], 4.22 [1.83-9.72], and 4.24 [2.95-6.11], respectively. Our results indicate that hypertensive patients with several TODs had a worst outcome. Thus, it seems important to screen for multiple TODs in hypertension; especially check for severe hypertensive retinopathy in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and renal damage. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

2017-07-01

The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

High EDSS can predict risk for upper urinary tract damage in patients with multiple sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ineichen, Benjamin V; Schneider, Marc P; Hlavica, Martin; Hagenbuch, Niels; Linnebank, Michael; Kessler, Thomas M

2018-04-01

Neurogenic lower urinary tract dysfunction (NLUTD) is very common in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), and it might jeopardize renal function and thereby increase mortality. Although there are well-known urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage, no clinical prediction parameters are available. We aimed to assess clinical parameters potentially predicting urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage. A consecutive series of 141 patients with MS referred from neurologists for primary neuro-urological work-up including urodynamics were prospectively evaluated. Clinical parameters taken into account were age, sex, duration, and clinical course of MS and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Multivariate modeling revealed EDSS as a clinical parameter significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.71, p = 0.02). Using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, an EDSS of 5.0 as cutoff showed a sensitivity of 86%-87% and a specificity of 52% for at least one urodynamic risk factor for upper urinary tract damage. High EDSS is significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage and allows a risk-dependent stratification in daily neurological clinical practice to identify MS patients requiring further neuro-urological assessment and treatment.

Health Risk Assessment and DNA Damage of Volatile Organic Compounds in Car Painting Houses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patpida Siripongpokin

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Car painters who work near volatile organic compounds (VOCs sources, including paints, solvents and painting processes may be exposed to highly elevated VOCs levels. This study investigates air samples from car painting houses in Thailand to evaluate the health risks following inhalation exposure. Personal air samplings were obtained at nine garages in Phitsanulok, Thailand from June to September 2012. The concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes, and styrene in the air workplaces were significantly higher than in a control group of office workers (p < 0.05. Toluene, xylene and ethylbenzene were the most abundant species. However, all VOCs in these air samples were lower than TWA limit of Thailand and the OSHA standard. The lifetime cancer and non-cancer risks for the workers exposed to VOCs were also assessed. The average lifetime cancer risk was 41.0 (38.2-47.2 per million, which is in the acceptable risk. The average lifetime non-cancer risk, the HI, was 0.962 (0.643-1.397, which is well below the reference hazard level. Urine samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed for VOCs metabolites, including t,t muconic acid, hippuric acid, mandelic acid and m-hippuric acid, demonstrate that the average levels of metabolites in car painters and in controls were close. All VOCs metabolites in urine samples were lower than BEI of ACGIH standard. Blood samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed by single cell gel electrophoresis (comet assay. The DNA damage, assessed by tail moment, demonstrates that the average of tail moment in car painters were significantly higher than in the controls (p < 0.05.

Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

2017-04-01

This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical

Apperception and assessment of technological risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

1986-01-01

Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

Science.gov (United States)

Ebner, G.

2009-04-01

Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Guillaume, Charrier; Isabelle, Chuine; Marc, Bonhomme; Thierry, Améglio

2018-05-01

Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R 2  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among adult patients with primary hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital, Kenya: a criteria-based clinical audit.

Science.gov (United States)

Mwita, Clifford Chacha; Akello, Walter; Sisenda, Gloria; Ogoti, Evans; Tivey, David; Munn, Zachary; Mbogo, David

2013-06-01

Appropriate management of hypertension reduces the risk of death from stroke and cardiac disease and includes routine assessment for target organ damage and estimation of cardiovascular risk. However, implementation of evidence-based hypertension management guidelines is unsatisfactory. We explore the use of audit and feedback as a quality improvement (QI) strategy for reducing the knowledge practice gap in hypertension care in a resource poor setting. The aim of this study is to determine the level of compliance to evidence-based guidelines on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among patients with hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital in central Kenya and to implement best practice with regard to evidence utilisation among clinicians in the hospital. A retrospective clinical audit done in three phases spread over 5 months. Phase one involved identifying five audit criteria on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage in patients with hypertension and conducting a baseline audit in which compliance to audit criteria, blood pressure control and drug prescription practices were assessed. Phase two involved identifying barriers to compliance to audit criteria and strategies to overcoming these barriers. The third phase was a follow-up audit. There was no use of a cardiovascular risk assessment tool in both audits (0% vs. 0%; P = 1.00). Testing urine for haematuria and proteinuria reduced from 13% to 8% (P = 0.230) while taking a blood sample for measuring blood glucose, electrolytes and creatinine levels improved from 11% to 17% (P = 0.401). Performance of fundoscopy and electrocardiography remained unchanged at 2% and 8%, respectively (P = 0.886 and P = 0.898). High patient load was identified as the biggest barrier to implementation of best practice. Blood pressure control improved from 33% to 70% (P ≤ 0.001), whereas the proportion of patients on two or more recommended antihypertensive drugs rose

Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

Science.gov (United States)

Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

2017-12-01

The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push

Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform.

Science.gov (United States)

Arrighi, Chiara; Rossi, Lauro; Trasforini, Eva; Rudari, Roberto; Ferraris, Luca; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Castelli, Fabio

2018-02-01

Flood risk mitigation usually requires a significant investment of public resources and cost-effectiveness should be ensured. The assessment of the benefits of hydraulic works requires the quantification of (i) flood risk in absence of measures, (ii) risk in presence of mitigation works, (iii) investments to achieve acceptable residual risk. In this work a building-scale is adopted to estimate direct tangible flood losses to several building classes (e.g. residential, industrial, commercial, etc.) and respective contents, exploiting various sources of public open data in a GIS environment. The impact simulations for assigned flood hazard scenarios are computed through the RASOR platform which allows for an extensive characterization of the properties and their vulnerability through libraries of stage-damage curves. Recovery and replacement costs are estimated based on insurance data, market values and socio-economic proxies. The methodology is applied to the case study of Florence (Italy) where a system of retention basins upstream of the city is under construction to reduce flood risk. Current flood risk in the study area (70 km 2 ) is about 170 Mio euros per year without accounting for people, infrastructures, cultural heritage and vehicles at risk. The monetary investment in the retention basins is paid off in about 5 years. However, the results show that although hydraulic works are cost-effective, a significant residual risk has to be managed and the achievement of the desired level of acceptable risk would require about 1 billion euros of investments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

OpenAIRE

K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

2015-01-01

This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

Estimation of embrittlement damage risk at neutron embrittled vessel constructions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Staevski, K.; Madzharov, D.; Detistov, P.; Petrova, T.

1998-01-01

In this work a methodology based on Damage mechanics criteria is proposed. This methodology serves for probability assessment of the brittle damage risk for the neutron embrittled vessel elements. The developed methodology is realised in RISK code and has been verified on the base of tough reliability of the pressure vessel, 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2. This investigation has been carried out at the given parameters of the possible defects on the vessel's weld 4 taking into account requirements of the western and Russian standards. The obtained values for ductile to brittle transition temperatures, defining the equipment life-time in the presence of maximal defect, are in good consistence with the experimentally determined ones. The analyses of results show that the pressure vessel of 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2 has got a high level of reliability from brittle damage risk point of view and that the western standards give more conservative evaluation. On the bases of the results a conclusion is made that the developed methodology enables analysing the influence of possible defects in the neutron embrittled elements on their to reliability and their remained life-time

Measurement of damage in systemic vasculitis: a comparison of the Vasculitis Damage Index with the Combined Damage Assessment Index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Suppiah, Ravi; Flossman, Oliver; Mukhtyar, Chetan

2011-01-01

To compare the Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI) with the Combined Damage Assessment Index (CDA) as measures of damage from vasculitis.......To compare the Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI) with the Combined Damage Assessment Index (CDA) as measures of damage from vasculitis....

Assessment of mean annual flood damage using simple hydraulic modeling and Monte Carlo simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Oubennaceur, K.; Agili, H.; Chokmani, K.; Poulin, J.; Marceau, P.

2016-12-01

Floods are the most frequent and the most damaging natural disaster in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which struck the region in 2011, causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects has been developed. This approach integrates three main components: (1) hydrologic modelling aiming to establish a probability-discharge function which associate each measured discharge to its probability of occurrence (2) hydraulic modeling that aims to establish the relationship between the discharge and the water stage at each building (3) damage study that aims to assess the buildings damage using damage functions. The damage is estimated according to the water depth defined as the difference between the water level and the elevation of the building's first floor. The application of the proposed approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

2016-04-01

Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs

Partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of incident radiographic osteoarthritis and worsening cartilage damage in the following year

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roemer, Frank W. [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Department of Radiology, Erlangen (Germany); Kwoh, C.K. [University of Arizona Arthritis Center and University of Arizona College of Medicine, Tucson, AZ (United States); Hannon, Michael J.; Grago, Jason [University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Hunter, David J. [University of Sydney, Department of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital and Kolling Institute, St Leonards (Australia); Eckstein, Felix [Paracelsus Medical University, Institute of Anatomy, Salzburg (Austria); Boudreau, Robert M. [University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Englund, Martin [Lund University, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Orthopaedics, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund (Sweden); Guermazi, Ali [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

2017-01-15

To assess whether partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) and worsening cartilage damage in the following year. We studied 355 knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative that developed ROA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2), which were matched with control knees. The MR images were assessed using the semi-quantitative MOAKS system. Conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate risk of incident ROA. Logistic regression was used to assess the risk of worsening cartilage damage in knees with partial meniscectomy that developed ROA. In the group with incident ROA, 4.4 % underwent partial meniscectomy during the year prior to the case-defining visit, compared with none of the knees that did not develop ROA. All (n = 31) knees that had partial meniscectomy and 58.9 % (n = 165) of the knees with prevalent meniscal damage developed ROA (OR = 2.51, 95 % CI [1.73, 3.64]). In knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with an increased risk of worsening cartilage damage (OR = 4.51, 95 % CI [1.53, 13.33]). The probability of having had partial meniscectomy was higher in knees that developed ROA. When looking only at knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with greater risk of worsening cartilage damage. (orig.)

Natural resource damage assessments: The second generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luthi, R.; Burlington, L.; Reinharz, E.; Shutler, S.

1993-01-01

The Damage Assessment Regulations Team (DART), Office of General Counsel, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has focused on developing natural resource damage assessment regulations for oil pollution in navigable waters. These procedures may lower the transaction costs of assessments, encourage joint cooperative assessments, simplify most assessments and provide technical guidance for conducting assessments. DART is developing regulations for the assessment of damages due to injuries related to oil spills under the Oil pollution Act of 1990. These regulations will involve coordination, restoration and economic valuation. NOAA encourages federal, state, tribal and foreign trustees, to develop prespill plans. Coordination with response agencies assures protection of important natural resources. The regulations provide an open record, which becomes the basis for judicial review. Various methods being developed to assess damages for injuries to natural resources include: compensation formulas for spills under 50,000 gallons of oil, the Type A model, expedited damage assessment (EDA) procedures, and comprehensive damage assessment (CDA) procedures which can be used for spills of various sizes. These procedures provide trustees with a choice for assessing natural resource damages to each oil spill. NOAA is emphasizing the importance of restoration. Restoration plans will define project goals and objectives, establish procedures and methods for site restoration, and define the approach based on sound science. Finally, numerous economic methods are identified to calculate the lost or diminished use as passive use of the affected resources

Comparative risk assessments for Guadeloupe: earthquakes and storm surge

OpenAIRE

Réveillère , Arnaud; Monfort , Daniel; Lecacheux , Sophie; Grisanti , Ludovic; Muller , Héloise; Bertil , Didier; Rohmer , Jérémy; Sedan , Olivier; Douglas , John; Baills , Audrey; Modaressi , Hormoz

2012-01-01

In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exi...

Assessing the physical vulnerability of check dams through an empirical damage index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Dell'Agnese

2013-06-01

Full Text Available A comprehensive analysis of flood risk in mountain streams has to include an assessment of the vulnerability of the protection systems, in addition to an assessment of the vulnerability of the constructed environment on alluvial fans and floodplains. Structures forming the protection systems are of a dual nature, i.e. they are designed to mitigate natural process-related hazards and, on the other hand, are prone to be damaged during their lifecycle by the same processes they should mitigate. Therefore, their effectiveness declines over time. Hence, the knowledge of how effectively control structures perform is essential for risk management. A procedure was developed to assess the physical vulnerability of check dams based on empirical evidence collected in South Tyrol, Northern Italy. A damage index defined on pre- and postevent comparisons of check dam conditions was evaluated for 362 structures in 18 mountain streams along with the relevant processes and the structural characteristics affecting it. Although the available dataset did not allow conclusive functional relationships between damage index and impact variables to be established, it was possible to assess the average expected residual functionality of check dams according to structure characteristics, and event type and intensity. These results may help plan appropriate check dam maintenance.

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2013-05-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. C. Winsemius

2013-05-01

Full Text Available There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population. The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE. We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from

Assessment of damage domains of the High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flores, Alain; Izquierdo, José María; Tuček, Kamil; Gallego, Eduardo

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We developed an adequate model for the identification of damage domains of the HTTR. • We analysed an anticipated operational transient, using the HTTR5+/GASTEMP code. • We simulated several transients of the same sequence. • We identified the corresponding damage domains using two methods. • We calculated exceedance frequency using the two methods. - Abstract: This paper presents an assessment analysis of damage domains of the 30 MW th prototype High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) operated by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). For this purpose, an in-house deterministic risk assessment computational tool was developed based on the Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD). To illustrate the methodology and applicability of the developed modelling approach, assessment results of a control rod (CR) withdrawal accident during subcritical conditions are presented and compared with those obtained by the JAEA

Sun damage in ultraviolet photographs correlates with phenotypic melanoma risk factors in 12-year-old children.

Science.gov (United States)

Gamble, Ryan G; Asdigian, Nancy L; Aalborg, Jenny; Gonzalez, Victoria; Box, Neil F; Huff, Laura S; Barón, Anna E; Morelli, Joseph G; Mokrohisky, Stefan T; Crane, Lori A; Dellavalle, Robert P

2012-10-01

Ultraviolet (UV) photography has been used to motivate sun safety in behavioral interventions. The relationship between sun damage shown in UV photographs and melanoma risk has not been systematically investigated. To examine the relationship between severity of sun damage in UV photographs and phenotypic melanoma risk factors in children. UV, standard visible and cross-polarized photographs were recorded for 585 children. Computer software quantified sun damage. Full-body nevus counts, skin color by colorimetry, facial freckling, hair and eye color were collected in skin examinations. Demographic data were collected in telephone interviews of parents. Among 12-year-old children, sun damage shown in UV photographs correlated with phenotypic melanoma risk factors. Sun damage was greatest for children who were non-Hispanic white and those who had red hair, blue eyes, increased facial freckling, light skin and greater number of nevi (all P values photographs. Freckling was the strongest predictor of sun damage in visible and UV photographs. All other phenotypic melanoma risk factors were also predictors for the UV photographs. Differences in software algorithms used to score the photographs could produce different results. UV photographs portray more sun damage in children with higher risk for melanoma based on phenotype. Therefore sun protection interventions targeting those with greater sun damage on UV photographs will target those at higher melanoma risk. This study establishes reference ranges dermatologists can use to assess sun damage in their pediatric patients. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

2015-12-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, M.; Damm, B.

2014-12-01

The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

Application of the Integrated Safety Assessment methodology to safety margins. Dynamic Event Trees, Damage Domains and Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibánez, L.; Hortal, J.; Queral, C.; Gómez-Magán, J.; Sánchez-Perea, M.; Fernández, I.; Meléndez, E.; Expósito, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.; Gil, J.; Marrao, H.; Villalba-Jabonero, E.

2016-01-01

The Integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, has been applied to an analysis of Zion NPP for sequences with Loss of the Component Cooling Water System (CCWS). The ISA methodology proposal starts from the unfolding of the Dynamic Event Tree (DET). Results from this first step allow assessing the sequence delineation of standard Probabilistic Safety Analysis results. For some sequences of interest of the outlined DET, ISA then identifies the Damage Domain (DD). This is the region of uncertain times and/or parameters where a safety limit is exceeded, which indicates the occurrence of certain damage situation. This paper illustrates application of this concept obtained simulating sequences with MAAP and with TRACE. From information of simulation results of sequence transients belonging to the DD and the time-density probability distributions of the manual actions and of occurrence of stochastic phenomena, ISA integrates the dynamic reliability equations proposed to obtain the sequence contribution to the global Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF). Reported results show a slight increase in the DEF for sequences investigated following a power uprate from 100% to 110%. This demonstrates the potential use of the method to help in the assessment of design modifications. - Highlights: • This paper illustrates an application of the ISA methodology to safety margins. • Dynamic Event Trees are useful tool for verifying the standard PSA Event Trees. • The ISA methodology takes into account the uncertainties in human action times. • The ISA methodology shows the Damage Exceedance Frequency increase in power uprates.

Natural phenomena risk assessment at Rocky Flats Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foppe, T.L.

1985-01-01

A realistic approach is currently being used at the Rocky Flats Plant to assess the risks of natural phenomena events. The methodology addresses frequency of occurrence estimates, damage stress on the facility and vital equipment, material-at-risk, release fractions and source terms, leakpath, dispersion and dosimetric models, risk curves, and an uncertainty analysis. 28 references, 1 figure

Damage assessment methodology for vehicles exposed to flooding in urban areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Martínez Gomariz

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Urban floods may provoke important damages to vehicles, usually not taken into account within most studies related to urban flood risks damage assessments. Herein a methodology to estimate damages to vehicles exposed to urban floods is presented. After a state-of-the-art review, the most recent damage curves for vehicles developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE, 2009 are presented as the best adaptive and the most comprehensively performed so far. The proposed methodology is applied to the Spanish municipality of Badalona, framed in the H2020 European Project BINGO. In order to conduct this methodology some aspects such as the vehicular distribution are analyzed within the study area. Finally, Expected Annual Damage (EAD for flooded vehicles is calculated based on inundations related to design storms of different return periods (1, 10, 100 and 500 years.

N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baxter, J.T.

1989-01-01

An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented

Natural-technological risk assessment and management

Science.gov (United States)

Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

2016-04-01

EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

A methodology for assessment seismic risk in PSAs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jae, Moo Sung

2001-01-01

This paper suggested a new framework for assessing seismic risk in PSAs. The framework used the concepts of requirement and achievement in the reliability physics. The quantified correlation which is a function of the requirement variable (hazard curve) and the achievement variable (fragility curve) results in a quantity, the unconditional frequency of exceeding a damage lelvel. This framework can be applied to any other external safety assessment, such as Fire and Flood Risk in PSAs

Cross-Layer Damage Assessment for Cyber Situational Awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Peng; Jia, Xiaoqi; Zhang, Shengzhi; Xiong, Xi; Jhi, Yoon-Chan; Bai, Kun; Li, Jason

Damage assessment plays a very important role in securing enterprise networks and systems. Gaining good awareness about the effects and impact of cyber attack actions would enable security officers to make the right cyber defense decisions and take the right cyber defense actions. A good number of damage assessment techniques have been proposed in the literature, but they typically focus on a single abstraction level (of the software system in concern). As a result, existing damage assessment techniques and tools are still very limited in satisfying the needs of comprehensive damage assessment which should not result in any “blind spots”.

Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

2010-01-01

Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

Liver Damage Risk Assessment Study in Workers Occupationally Exposed to E-waste in Benin City, South-South Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Osaretin God Igaro Igaro

2015-07-01

Full Text Available    Large volumes of mostly irreparable electronic waste (e-waste are shipped to Africa on a monthly basis, of which Nigeria receives the largest share. E-waste management practices in Nigeria have remained completely primitive until date; and e-waste workers have little or no occupational safety knowledge and devices. The thousands of chemicals in e-waste have been reported to be toxic to human health in any degree of exposure. The present study has assessed the risk of liver damage in workers occupationally exposed to e-waste in Benin City, South-south Nigeria in 2014. Serum activities of liver enzymes [alanine aminotransferase (ALT, aspartate aminotransferase (AST, gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP]; and levels albumin (ALB, total bilirubin (T/Bil and conjugated bilirubin (C/Bil were determined using standard colorimetric methods. Serum Alpha fetoprotein (AFP was determined using ELISA in Nigerian e-waste workers (n=63 and in age-matched unexposed participants (n=41 in Benin City. The results showed significantly raised activities of enzymatic biomarkers of liver damage (ALT, AST, ALP and GGT in the e-waste group compared with the unexposed participants. There was no significant difference in the levels of ALB, T/Bil and C/Bil between exposed and unexposed participants. AFP levels in e-waste workers (3.56 ± 0.34 ng/mL were significantly different compared with the unexposed group (2.14 ± 0.80 ng/mL (P< 0.045. The significantly elevated cancer risk biomarker (AFP and the enzymatic biomarkers of liver damage observed in the Nigerian e-waste workers studied may be associated with occupational exposure to known carcinogens and hepatotoxic metals in e-waste. 

Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

2001-01-01

Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

Cryogenic Risk Assessments before Works in the LHC Tunnel

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2016-01-01

Tests conducted in 2013/4 demonstrated that a small, residual risk to expose personnel to a helium spill exists in the LHC. Helium spills with a mass flow of less than 100 g s^-1 could be caused by workers accidentally damaging sensitive equipment in the cryogenic distribution system, such as instrumentation feedthroughs. In order to control this risk, a cryogenic risk assessment for all works taking place in the vicinity of such sensitive equipment is mandatory. The risk assessment and its recommendations are approved by the hierarchy and the complex manager before work can start. After introducing the risk assessment procedure, I will give some feedback on its implementation and present status.

The second generation of natural resource damage assessments: Lessons learned?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luthi, R.B.; Burlington, L.B.; Reinharz, E.; Shutler, S.K.

1993-01-01

The Damage Assessment Regulations Team (DART), under the Office of General Counsel of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has centered its efforts on developing natural resource damage assessment regulations for oil pollution in navigable waters. These procedures will likely lower the costs associated with damage assessments, encourage joint cooperative assessments and simplify most assessments. The DART team of NOAA is developing new regulations for the assessment of damages due to injuries related to oil spills under the Oil Pollution Act of 1990. These regulations will involve coordination, restoration, and economic valuation. Various methods are currently being developed to assess damages for injuries to natural resources. The proposed means include: compensation tables for spills under 50,000 gallons, Type A model, expedited damage assessment (EDA) procedures, and comprehensive procedures. They are being developed to provide trustees with a choice for assessing natural resource damages for each oil spill

Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

1984-01-01

Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

HSE assessment of explosion risk analysis in offshore safety cases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brighton, P.W.M.; Fearnley, P.J.; Brearley, I.G. [Health and Safety Executive, Bootle (United Kingdom). Offshore Safety Div.

1995-12-31

In the past two years HSE has assessed around 250 Safety Cases for offshore oil and gas installations, building up a unique overview of the current state of the art on fire and explosion risk assessment. This paper reviews the explosion risk methods employed, focusing on the aspects causing most difficulty for assessment and acceptance of Safety Cases. Prediction of overpressures in offshore explosions has been intensively researched in recent years but the justification of the means of prevention, control and mitigation of explosions often depends on much additional analysis of the frequency and damage potential of explosions. This involves a number of factors, the five usually considered being: leak sizes; gas dispersion; ignition probabilities; the frequency distribution of explosion strength; and the prediction of explosion damage. Sources of major uncertainty in these factors and their implications for practical risk management decisions are discussed. (author)

Seismic damage assessment of reinforced concrete containment structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, HoHyun; Koh, Hyun-Moo; Hyun, Chang-Hun; Kim, Moon-Soo; Shin, Hyun Mock

2003-01-01

This paper presents a procedure for assessing seismic damage of concrete containment structures using the nonlinear time-history numerical analysis. For this purpose, two kinds of damage index are introduced at finite element and structural levels. Nonlinear finite element analysis for the containment structure applies PSC shell elements using a layered approach leading to damage indices at finite element and structural levels, which are then used to assess the seismic damage of the containment structure. As an example of such seismic damage assessment, seismic damages of the containment structure of Wolsong I nuclear power plant in Korea are evaluated against 30 artificial earthquakes generated with a wide range of PGA according to US NRC regulatory guide 1.60. Structural responses and corresponding damage index according to the level of PGA and nonlinearity are investigated. It is also shown that the containment structure behaves elastically for earthquakes corresponding to or lower than DBE. (author)

Engineering measures and risk assessment against fault displacement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narabayashi, Tadashi; Okamoto, Koji; Dodo, Takashi; Kamiya, Masanobu

2017-01-01

A special committee on 'assessment on fault activities and engineering risk' was established at the Japan Atomic Energy Society. With a participation of the Japan Society of Maintenology, a study group on nuclear safety regulations was established at the Japan Society of Maintenology, and this theme has been examined. Among the technics for evaluating the effects of fault displacement on nuclear facilities, the concept of application of the safety margin evaluation method is shown. By applying this method, it is possible to evaluate nuclear safety against fault displacement, and it is also possible to obtain risk information such as the conditions of facilities and safety functions (retention or loss) as well as the safety margin against core damage, including the event exceeding prediction. Thus, it is possible to verify the effectiveness of accident management and to make decisions for further countermeasures to reduce risk through using the obtained risk information. The countermeasures prepared for large scale damage can also be effectively utilized. It is necessary not only the fault displacement targeted in this paper, but also the results of risk assessment obtained by safety margin assessment etc. are reflected on the improvement of accident management at the site, education and training, and assumption of various events and desk training, and are linked to safety improvement. Efforts for encouraging these actions are also required. (A.O.)

An employee/trade union perspective to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aro, Pekka O.

1992-01-01

Risk assessment does not easily lend itself to precise description. In some of its current forms of application, it is little more than a modern way of throwing bones or looking at tea leaves or the entrails of sheep, like our ancestors used to do not so many centuries ago (the only real difference being perhaps that laboratory rats are cheaper and less messy than sheep). A its best, however, risk assessment can be used as a good tool to identify the needs for changes required to reduce hazards and to prevent accidents to humans or damage to the environment. This paper approaches risk assessment as a tool, highlighting the need and usefulness as well as the right of employees and their representatives to participate in all the steps involved in assessing the risks of the workplace and its environment

Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

Analytic concepts for assessing risk as applied to human space flight

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1997-01-01

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles provide an effective framework for quantifying individual elements of risk, including the risk to astronauts and spacecraft of the radiation environment of space flight. The concept of QRA is based on a structured set of scenarios that could lead to different damage states initiated by either hardware failure, human error, or external events. In the context of a spacecraft risk assessment, radiation may be considered as an external event and analyzed in the same basic way as any other contributor to risk. It is possible to turn up the microscope on any particular contributor to risk and ask more detailed questions than might be necessary to simply assess safety. The methods of QRA allow for as much fine structure in the analysis as is desired. For the purpose of developing a basis for comprehensive risk management and considering the tendency to open-quotes fear anything nuclear,close quotes radiation risk is a prime candidate for examination beyond that necessary to answer the basic question of risk. Thus, rather than considering only the customary damage states of fatalities or loss of a spacecraft, it is suggested that the full range of damage be analyzed to quantify radiation risk. Radiation dose levels in the form of a risk curve accomplish such a result. If the risk curve is the complementary cumulative distribution function, then it answers the extended question of what is the likelihood of receiving a specific dose of radiation or greater. Such results can be converted to specific health effects as desired. Knowing the full range of the radiation risk of a space mission and the contributors to that risk provides the information necessary to take risk management actions [operational, design, scheduling of missions around solar particle events (SPE), etc.] that clearly control radiation exposure

Multi-scale landslide risk assessment in Cuba

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Castellanos Abella, E.A.

2008-01-01

Landslides cause a considerable amount of damage in the mountainous regions of Cuba, which cover about 25% of the territory. Until now, only a limited amount of research has been carried out in the field of landslide risk assessment in the country. This research presents a methodology and its

DNA Damage Signals and Space Radiation Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Space radiation is comprised of high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei and protons. The initial DNA damage from HZE nuclei is qualitatively different from X-rays or gamma rays due to the clustering of damage sites which increases their complexity. Clustering of DNA damage occurs on several scales. First there is clustering of single strand breaks (SSB), double strand breaks (DSB), and base damage within a few to several hundred base pairs (bp). A second form of damage clustering occurs on the scale of a few kbp where several DSB?s may be induced by single HZE nuclei. These forms of damage clusters do not occur at low to moderate doses of X-rays or gamma rays thus presenting new challenges to DNA repair systems. We review current knowledge of differences that occur in DNA repair pathways for different types of radiation and possible relationships to mutations, chromosomal aberrations and cancer risks.

Uncertainty studies and risk assessment for CO2 storage in geological formations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walter, Lena Sophie

2013-01-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations is one possible option to mitigate the greenhouse gas effect by reducing CO 2 emissions into the atmosphere. The assessment of the risks related to CO 2 storage is an important task. Events such as CO 2 leakage and brine displacement could result in hazards for human health and the environment. In this thesis, a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment concept is presented to investigate various levels of uncertainties and to assess risks using numerical simulations. Depending on the risk and the processes, which should be assessed, very complex models, large model domains, large time scales, and many simulations runs for estimating probabilities are required. To reduce the resulting high computational costs, a model reduction technique (the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion) and a method for model coupling in space are applied. The different levels of uncertainties are: statistical uncertainty in parameter distributions, scenario uncertainty, e.g. different geological features, and recognized ignorance due to assumptions in the conceptual model set-up. Recognized ignorance and scenario uncertainty are investigated by simulating well defined model set-ups and scenarios. According to damage values, which are defined as a model output, the set-ups and scenarios can be compared and ranked. For statistical uncertainty probabilities can be determined by running Monte Carlo simulations with the reduced model. The results are presented in various ways: e.g., mean damage, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, or an overall risk value by multiplying the damage with the probability. If the model output (damage) cannot be compared to provided criteria (e.g. water quality criteria), analytical approximations are presented to translate the damage into comparable values. The overall concept is applied for the risks related to brine displacement and infiltration into drinking water

Analyzing the Risk of Fire in a Hospital Complex by “Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineering”(FRAME

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarsangi V.* MSc,

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Aims The occurrence of fire in residential buildings, commercial complexes and large and small industries cause physical, environmental and financial damages to many different communities. Fire safety in hospitals is sensitive and it is believed that the society takes the responsibility to care sick people. The goal of this study was to use Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineering (FRAME in a hospital complex environment and assess the level of fire risks. Materials & Methods This descriptive study was conducted in Kashan Shahid Beheshti hospital in 2013. The FRAME is designed based on the empirical and scientific knowledge and experiment and have acceptable reliability for assessing the building fire risk. Excel software was used to calculate the risk level and finally fire risk (R was calculated separately for different units. Findings Calculated Rs were less than 1for health, autoclave, office of nursing and infection control units. R1s were greater than 1 for all units. R2s were less than 1 for office of nursing and infection control units. Conclusion FRAME is an acceptable tool for assessing the risk of fire in buildings and the fire risk is high in Shahid Beheshti Hospital Complex of Kashan and damages can be intolerable in the case of fire.

Computational model for the assessment of oil spill damages

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seip, K L; Heiberg, A B; Brekke, K A

1985-06-01

A description is given of the method and the required data of a model for calculating oil spill damages. Eleven damage attributes are defined: shorelength contaminated, shore restitution time, birds dead, restitution time for three groups of birds, open sea damages-two types, damages to recreation, economy and fisheries. The model has been applied in several cases of oil pollution assessments: in an examination of alternative models for the organization of oil spill combat in Norway, in the assessment of the damages coused by a blowout at Tromsoeflaket and in assessing a possible increase in oil spill preparedness for Svalbard. 56 references.

Hurricane Harvey Building Damage Assessment Using UAV Data

Science.gov (United States)

Yeom, J.; Jung, J.; Chang, A.; Choi, I.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey which was extremely destructive major hurricane struck southern Texas, U.S.A on August 25, causing catastrophic flooding and storm damages. We visited Rockport suffered severe building destruction and conducted UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) surveying for building damage assessment. UAV provides very high resolution images compared with traditional remote sensing data. In addition, prompt and cost-effective damage assessment can be performed regardless of several limitations in other remote sensing platforms such as revisit interval of satellite platforms, complicated flight plan in aerial surveying, and cloud amounts. In this study, UAV flight and GPS surveying were conducted two weeks after hurricane damage to generate an orthomosaic image and a DEM (Digital Elevation Model). 3D region growing scheme has been proposed to quantitatively estimate building damages considering building debris' elevation change and spectral difference. The result showed that the proposed method can be used for high definition building damage assessment in a time- and cost-effective way.

Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

Science.gov (United States)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2013-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments

Probabilistic risk assessment of earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant and subsequent upgrade to reduce risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Day, S.A.

1989-01-01

An analysis to determine the risk associated with earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant was performed. Seismic analyses and structural evaluations were used to postulate building and equipment damage and radiological releases to the environment from various magnitudes of earthquakes. Dispersion modeling and dose assessment to the public were then calculated. The frequency of occurrence of various magnitudes of earthquakes were determined from the Department of Energy natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project. Risk to the public was probabilistically assessed for each magnitude of earthquake and for overall seismic risk. Based on the results of this Probabilistic Risk Assessment and a cost/benefit analysis, seismic upgrades are being implemented for several plutonium-handling facilities for the purpose of risk reduction

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Tree-Based Models for Multi-Variate Flood Damage Assessment in Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Flood is a frequent natural hazard that has significant financial consequences for Australia. In Australia, physical losses caused by floods are commonly estimated by stage-damage functions. These methods usually consider only the depth of the water and the type of buildings at risk. However, flood damage is a complicated process, and it is dependent on a variety of factors which are rarely taken into account. This study explores the interaction, importance, and influence of water depth, flow velocity, water contamination, precautionary measures, emergency measures, flood experience, floor area, building value, building quality, and socioeconomic status. The study uses tree-based models (regression trees and bagging decision trees and a dataset collected from 2012 to 2013 flood events in Queensland, which includes information on structural damages, impact parameters, and resistance variables. The tree-based approaches show water depth, floor area, precautionary measures, building value, and building quality to be important damage-influencing parameters. Furthermore, the performance of the tree-based models is validated and contrasted with the outcomes of a multi-parameter loss function (FLFArs from Australia. The tree-based models are shown to be more accurate than the stage-damage function. Consequently, considering more parameters and taking advantage of tree-based models is recommended. The outcome is important for improving established Australian flood loss models and assisting decision-makers and insurance companies dealing with flood risk assessment.

Natural resource damage assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seddelmeyer, J.

1991-01-01

The assessment and collection of natural resource damages from petroleum and chemical companies unfortunate enough to have injured publicly owned natural resources is perhaps the most rapidly expanding area of environmental liability. The idea of recovering for injury to publicly owned natural resources is an extension of traditional common law tort concepts under which a person who negligently injures another or his property is called upon to compensate the injured party. Normally, once liability has been established, it is a fairly straightforward matter to calculate the various elements of loss, such as the cost to repair or replace damaged property, or medical expenses, and lost income. More difficult questions, such as the amount to be awarded for pain and suffering or emotional distress, are left to the jury, although courts limit the circumstances in which the jury is permitted to award such damages

Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ragozin, A.L.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment on Maritime Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Christian, Robby; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management has been an indispensable issue in South Korea. Before a long term SNF solution is implemented, there exists the need to distribute the spent fuel pool storage loads. Transportation of SNF assemblies from populated pools to vacant ones may preferably be done through the maritime mode since all nuclear power plants in South Korea are located at coastal sites. To determine its feasibility, it is necessary to assess risks of the maritime SNF transportation. This work proposes a methodology to assess the risk arising from ship collisions during the transportation of SNF by sea. Its scope is limited to the damage probability of SNF packages given a collision event. The effect of transport parameters' variation to the package damage probability was investigated to obtain insights into possible ways to minimize risks. A reference vessel and transport cask are given in a case study to illustrate the methodology's application.

Earthquake risk assessment of building structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellingwood, Bruce R.

2001-01-01

During the past two decades, probabilistic risk analysis tools have been applied to assess the performance of new and existing building structural systems. Structural design and evaluation of buildings and other facilities with regard to their ability to withstand the effects of earthquakes requires special considerations that are not normally a part of such evaluations for other occupancy, service and environmental loads. This paper reviews some of these special considerations, specifically as they pertain to probability-based codified design and reliability-based condition assessment of existing buildings. Difficulties experienced in implementing probability-based limit states design criteria for earthquake are summarized. Comparisons of predicted and observed building damage highlight the limitations of using current deterministic approaches for post-earthquake building condition assessment. The importance of inherent randomness and modeling uncertainty in forecasting building performance is examined through a building fragility assessment of a steel frame with welded connections that was damaged during the Northridge Earthquake of 1994. The prospects for future improvements in earthquake-resistant design procedures based on a more rational probability-based treatment of uncertainty are examined

Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

Science.gov (United States)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

2017-04-01

Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the

Inherent health and environmental risk assessment of nanostructured metal oxide production processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Torabifard, Mina; Arjmandi, Reza; Rashidi, Alimorad; Nouri, Jafar; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2018-01-10

The health and environmental effects of chemical processes can be assessed during the initial stage of their production. In this paper, the Chemical Screening Tool for Exposure and Environmental Release (ChemSTEER) software was used to compare the health and environmental risks of spray pyrolysis and wet chemical techniques for the fabrication of nanostructured metal oxide on a semi-industrial scale with a capacity of 300 kg/day in Iran. The pollution sources identified in each production process were pairwise compared in Expert Choice software using indicators including respiratory damage, skin damage, and environmental damages including air, water, and soil pollution. The synthesis of nanostructured zinc oxide using the wet chemical technique (with 0.523 wt%) leads to lower health and environmental risks compared to when spray pyrolysis is used (with 0.477 wt%). The health and environmental risk assessment of nanomaterial production processes can help select safer processes, modify the operation conditions, and select or modify raw materials that can help eliminate the risks.

Collision Risk and Damage after Collision

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Hansen, Peter Friis; Nielsen, Lars Peter

1996-01-01

The paper presents a new and complete procedure for calculation of ship-ship collision rates on specific routes and the hull damage caused by such collisions.The procedure is applied to analysis of collision risks for Ro-Ro pasenger vessels. Given a collision the spatial probability distribution ...

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Richard J.; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N.; Watson, Geoff V. R.; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N.; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W.

2018-06-01

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Darch, Geoff; Paulson, Kevin

2018-01-01

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712793

Development of risk assessment simulation tool for optimal control of a low probability-high consequence disaster

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yotsumoto, Hiroki; Yoshida, Kikuo; Genchi, Hiroshi

2011-01-01

In order to control low probability-high consequence disaster which causes huge social and economic damage, it is necessary to develop simultaneous risk assessment simulation tool based on the scheme of disaster risk including diverse effects of primary disaster and secondary damages. We propose the scheme of this risk simulation tool. (author)

Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016: data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods

Science.gov (United States)

Laudan, Jonas; Rözer, Viktor; Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Thieken, Annegret H.

2017-12-01

Flash floods are caused by intense rainfall events and represent an insufficiently understood phenomenon in Germany. As a result of higher precipitation intensities, flash floods might occur more frequently in future. In combination with changing land use patterns and urbanisation, damage mitigation, insurance and risk management in flash-flood-prone regions are becoming increasingly important. However, a better understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information for research. At the end of May 2016, very high and concentrated rainfall intensities led to severe flash floods in several southern German municipalities. The small town of Braunsbach stood as a prime example of the devastating potential of such events. Eight to ten days after the flash flood event, damage assessment and data collection were conducted in Braunsbach by investigating all affected buildings and their surroundings. To record and store the data on site, the open-source software bundle KoBoCollect was used as an efficient and easy way to gather information. Since the damage driving factors of flash floods are expected to differ from those of riverine flooding, a post-hoc data analysis was performed, aiming to identify the influence of flood processes and building attributes on damage grades, which reflect the extent of structural damage. Data analyses include the application of random forest, a random general linear model and multinomial logistic regression as well as the construction of a local impact map to reveal influences on the damage grades. Further, a Spearman's Rho correlation matrix was calculated. The results reveal that the damage driving factors of flash floods differ from those of riverine floods to a certain extent. The exposition of a building in flow direction shows an especially strong correlation with the damage grade and has a high predictive power within the constructed damage models. Additionally

Uncertainty studies and risk assessment for CO{sub 2} storage in geological formations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walter, Lena Sophie

2013-07-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations is one possible option to mitigate the greenhouse gas effect by reducing CO{sub 2} emissions into the atmosphere. The assessment of the risks related to CO{sub 2} storage is an important task. Events such as CO{sub 2} leakage and brine displacement could result in hazards for human health and the environment. In this thesis, a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment concept is presented to investigate various levels of uncertainties and to assess risks using numerical simulations. Depending on the risk and the processes, which should be assessed, very complex models, large model domains, large time scales, and many simulations runs for estimating probabilities are required. To reduce the resulting high computational costs, a model reduction technique (the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion) and a method for model coupling in space are applied. The different levels of uncertainties are: statistical uncertainty in parameter distributions, scenario uncertainty, e.g. different geological features, and recognized ignorance due to assumptions in the conceptual model set-up. Recognized ignorance and scenario uncertainty are investigated by simulating well defined model set-ups and scenarios. According to damage values, which are defined as a model output, the set-ups and scenarios can be compared and ranked. For statistical uncertainty probabilities can be determined by running Monte Carlo simulations with the reduced model. The results are presented in various ways: e.g., mean damage, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, or an overall risk value by multiplying the damage with the probability. If the model output (damage) cannot be compared to provided criteria (e.g. water quality criteria), analytical approximations are presented to translate the damage into comparable values. The overall concept is applied for the risks related to brine displacement and infiltration into

Assessment of technical risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

1978-01-01

The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, C. Senthil; Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K.; Balasubramaniyan, V.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, C. Senthil, E-mail: cskumar@igcar.gov.in [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India); Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K. [Reactor Design Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam (India); Balasubramaniyan, V. [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India)

2015-11-15

Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

Risk-informed optimal routing of ships considering different damage scenarios and operational conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decò, Alberto; Frangopol, Dan M.

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is the development of a risk-informed decision tool for the optimal mission-oriented routing of ships. The strength of the hull is investigated by modeling the midship section with finite elements and by analyzing different damage levels depending on the propagation of plastification throughout the section. Vertical and horizontal flexural interaction is investigated. Uncertainties associated with geometry and material properties are accounted for by means of the implementation of the response surface method. Load effects are evaluated using strip theory. Reliability analysis is performed for several ship operational conditions and considering four different limit states. Then, risk is assessed by including the direct losses associated with five investigated damage states. The effects of corrosion on aged ships are included in the proposed approach. Polar representation of load effects, reliability, and direct risk are presented for a large spectrum of operational conditions. Finally, the optimal routing of ships is obtained by minimizing both the estimated time of arrival and the expected direct risk, which are clearly conflicting objectives. The optimization process provides feasible solutions belonging to the Pareto front. The proposed approach is applied to a Joint High Speed Sealift

Leisure noise exposure: participation trends, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Elizabeth Francis; Gilliver, Megan; Williams, Warwick

2013-02-01

Leisure activities that emit high noise levels have the potential to expose participants to excessive noise exposure, which can result in hearing damage. This study investigated young people's participation in high-noise leisure activities and the relationship between their leisure noise exposure, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk. Participants completed an online survey relating to participation in selected high-noise leisure activities, symptoms of hearing damage, and beliefs about the risk posed by these activities. One thousand 18- to 35-year-old Australian adults completed the survey. Annual noise exposure from the five leisure activities ranged from 0-6.77 times the acceptable noise exposure, with nightclubs posing the greatest risk. Those who attended one noisy activity were more likely to attend others, in particular nightclubs, pubs, and live music events. Noise exposure was correlated with early warning signs of hearing damage and perceived risk of damage. Active young adults who engage in noisy activities are showing early signs of hearing damage. Furthermore, they perceive the risk associated with their activities. The challenge for researchers and hearing health practitioners is to convert self-perceived risk into positive hearing health behaviours for long-term hearing health.

Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

2016-01-01

Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2016-01-28

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO₂ injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO₂ injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO₂ storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO₂-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

Assessment of Technogenic Accident Risk of Industrial Building Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Baiburin, D. A.; Baiburin, A. Kh

2017-11-01

A methodology for assessing the risk of an industrial building accident was developed taking into account the damage caused by various localization of collapse. Before the beginning of the survey of a facility technical condition, groups including the same type of building structures are selected. Further, assessment is made for the reduction in their load-carrying capacity from the strength and stability conditions taking into account defects. The characteristics of the influence of defects and structural damage on a building safety is the degree of compliance with the standards expressed by the reliability level. Reliability levels assignment is carried out on the basis of calculations, operating experience and inspection of a particular type of structure according to the formalized rules. The risk of collapse according to a separate scenario is calculated for structures that are capable and incapable of causing a progressive ossification. The results of the technique application are based on the analysis of the accident risk at the welding shop “Vysota (Height) 239” of the Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant.

Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA), approach and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, R.D.

1995-01-01

During the past 15 years there have been over 30 Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) and Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessments (SPSAs) conducted of Western Nuclear Power Plants, principally of US design. In this paper PRA and PSA are used interchangeably as the overall process is essentially the same. Some similar assessments have been done for reactors in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Switzerland and Slovenia. These plants were also principally US supplied or built under US license. Since the restructuring of the governments in former Soviet Bloc countries, there has been grave concern regarding the safety of the reactors in these countries. To date there has been considerable activity in conducting partial seismic upgrades but the overall quantification of risk has not been pursued to the depth that it has in Western countries. This paper summarizes the methodology for Seismic PRA/PSA and compares results of two partially completed and two completed PRAs of soviet designed reactors to results from earlier PRAs on US Reactors. A WWER 440 and a WWER 1000 located in low seismic activity regions have completed PRAs and results show the seismic risk to be very low for both designs. For more active regions, partially completed PRAs of a WWER 440 and WWER 1000 located at the same site show the WWER 440 to have much greater seismic risk than the WWER 1000 plant. The seismic risk from the 1000 MW plant compares with the high end of seismic risk for earlier seismic PRAs in the US. Just as for most US plants, the seismic risk appears to be less than the risk from internal events if risk is measured is terms of mean core damage frequency. However, due to the lack of containment for the earlier WWER 440s, the risk to the public may be significantly greater due to the more probable scenario of an early release. The studies reported have not taken the accident sequences beyond the stage of core damage hence the public heath risk ratios are speculative. (author)

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

Coupled analysis of building damage due to tunneling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Giardina, G.; Hendriks, M.A.N.; Rots, J.G.

2009-01-01

Excavation works in urban areas require a preliminary risk damage assessment. In historical cities, the prediction of building response to settlements is necessary to reduce the risk of damage of the architectural heritage. The current method used to predict the building damage due to ground

Ultraviolet Radiation-Induced Cytogenetic Damage in White, Hispanic and Black Skin Melanocytes: A Risk for Cutaneous Melanoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dasgupta, Amrita [Hampton University Skin of Color Research Institute, Hampton, VA 23668 (United States); Katdare, Meena, E-mail: mkatdare@gmail.com [Hampton University Skin of Color Research Institute, Hampton, VA 23668 (United States); Department of Dermatology, Eastern Virginia Medical School, Norfolk, VA 23507 (United States)

2015-08-14

Cutaneous Melanoma (CM) is a leading cause of cancer deaths, with reports indicating a rising trend in the incidence rate of melanoma among Hispanics in certain U.S. states. The level of melanin pigmentation in the skin is suggested to render photoprotection from the DNA-damaging effects of Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR). UVR-induced DNA damage leads to cytogenetic defects visualized as the formation of micronuclei, multinuclei and polymorphic nuclei in cells, and a hallmark of cancer risk. The causative relationship between Sun exposure and CM is controversial, especially in Hispanics and needs further evaluation. This study was initiated with melanocytes from White, Hispanic and Black neonatal foreskins which were exposed to UVR to assess their susceptibility to UVR-induced modulation of cellular growth, cytogenetic damage, intracellular and released melanin. Our results show that White and Hispanic skin melanocytes with similar levels of constitutive melanin are susceptible to UVR-induced cytogenetic damage, whereas Black skin melanocytes are not. Our data suggest that the risk of developing UVR-induced CM in a skin type is correlated with the level of cutaneous pigmentation and its ethnic background. This study provides a benchmark for further investigation on the damaging effects of UVR as risk for CM in Hispanics.

Ultraviolet Radiation-Induced Cytogenetic Damage in White, Hispanic and Black Skin Melanocytes: A Risk for Cutaneous Melanoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dasgupta, Amrita; Katdare, Meena

2015-01-01

Cutaneous Melanoma (CM) is a leading cause of cancer deaths, with reports indicating a rising trend in the incidence rate of melanoma among Hispanics in certain U.S. states. The level of melanin pigmentation in the skin is suggested to render photoprotection from the DNA-damaging effects of Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR). UVR-induced DNA damage leads to cytogenetic defects visualized as the formation of micronuclei, multinuclei and polymorphic nuclei in cells, and a hallmark of cancer risk. The causative relationship between Sun exposure and CM is controversial, especially in Hispanics and needs further evaluation. This study was initiated with melanocytes from White, Hispanic and Black neonatal foreskins which were exposed to UVR to assess their susceptibility to UVR-induced modulation of cellular growth, cytogenetic damage, intracellular and released melanin. Our results show that White and Hispanic skin melanocytes with similar levels of constitutive melanin are susceptible to UVR-induced cytogenetic damage, whereas Black skin melanocytes are not. Our data suggest that the risk of developing UVR-induced CM in a skin type is correlated with the level of cutaneous pigmentation and its ethnic background. This study provides a benchmark for further investigation on the damaging effects of UVR as risk for CM in Hispanics

Features of risks, damage claims processing and damage prevention overseas. Pt. 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Splittgerber, E

1981-01-01

In opening up new raw material resources in remote locations and in the erection of industrial installations in overseas countries, manufacturers are often confronted with additional, unusual and hitherto unknown risks which can have considerable influence upon the orderly and timely execution of their projects. In Part I, various risk factors are considered from the experiences of Allianz as technical insurer in foreign damages connected with plant, civil and installation work insurance. The influence of climatic conditions upon damage events is illustrated with examples and the effects of storm, sand storm, flooding and earthquake discussed using a world map of natural dangers. The customs of people from culturally different nations and races, dictated as they often are by religion, must be taken into account by site managers and other staff on the building sites. The necessity for improvisations on building sites far from home and the limits of such improvisations are also discussed.

Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

Tree-based flood damage modeling of companies: Damage processes and model performance

Science.gov (United States)

Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno; Kreibich, Heidi

2017-07-01

Reliable flood risk analyses, including the estimation of damage, are an important prerequisite for efficient risk management. However, not much is known about flood damage processes affecting companies. Thus, we conduct a flood damage assessment of companies in Germany with regard to two aspects. First, we identify relevant damage-influencing variables. Second, we assess the prediction performance of the developed damage models with respect to the gain by using an increasing amount of training data and a sector-specific evaluation of the data. Random forests are trained with data from two postevent surveys after flood events occurring in the years 2002 and 2013. For a sector-specific consideration, the data set is split into four subsets corresponding to the manufacturing, commercial, financial, and service sectors. Further, separate models are derived for three different company assets: buildings, equipment, and goods and stock. Calculated variable importance values reveal different variable sets relevant for the damage estimation, indicating significant differences in the damage process for various company sectors and assets. With an increasing number of data used to build the models, prediction errors decrease. Yet the effect is rather small and seems to saturate for a data set size of several hundred observations. In contrast, the prediction improvement achieved by a sector-specific consideration is more distinct, especially for damage to equipment and goods and stock. Consequently, sector-specific data acquisition and a consideration of sector-specific company characteristics in future flood damage assessments is expected to improve the model performance more than a mere increase in data.

Physically-based Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Damage and Economic Losses

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, N.

2012-12-01

Estimating damage and economic losses caused by tropical cyclones (TC) is a topic of considerable research interest in many scientific fields, including meteorology, structural and coastal engineering, and actuarial sciences. One approach is based on the empirical relationship between TC characteristics and loss data. Another is to model the physical mechanism of TC-induced damage. In this talk we discuss about the physically-based approach to predict TC damage and losses due to extreme wind and storm surge. We first present an integrated vulnerability model, which, for the first time, explicitly models the essential mechanisms causing wind damage to residential areas during storm passage, including windborne-debris impact and the pressure-debris interaction that may lead, in a chain reaction, to structural failures (Lin and Vanmarcke 2010; Lin et al. 2010a). This model can be used to predict the economic losses in a residential neighborhood (with hundreds of buildings) during a specific TC (Yau et al. 2011) or applied jointly with a TC risk model (e.g., Emanuel et al 2008) to estimate the expected losses over long time periods. Then we present a TC storm surge risk model that has been applied to New York City (Lin et al. 2010b; Lin et al. 2012; Aerts et al. 2012), Miami-Dade County, Florida (Klima et al. 2011), Galveston, Texas (Lickley, 2012), and other coastal areas around the world (e.g., Tampa, Florida; Persian Gulf; Darwin, Australia; Shanghai, China). These physically-based models are applicable to various coastal areas and have the capability to account for the change of the climate and coastal exposure over time. We also point out that, although made computationally efficient for risk assessment, these models are not suitable for regional or global analysis, which has been a focus of the empirically-based economic analysis (e.g., Hsiang and Narita 2012). A future research direction is to simplify the physically-based models, possibly through

Categorizing natural disaster damage assessment using satellite-based geospatial techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Myint, S.W.; Yuan, M.; Cerveny, R.S.; Giri, C.

2008-01-01

Remote sensing of a natural disaster's damage offers an exciting backup and/or alternative to traditional means of on-site damage assessment. Although necessary for complete assessment of damage areas, ground-based damage surveys conducted in the aftermath of natural hazard passage can sometimes be potentially complicated due to on-site difficulties (e.g., interaction with various authorities and emergency services) and hazards (e.g., downed power lines, gas lines, etc.), the need for rapid mobilization (particularly for remote locations), and the increasing cost of rapid physical transportation of manpower and equipment. Satellite image analysis, because of its global ubiquity, its ability for repeated independent analysis, and, as we demonstrate here, its ability to verify on-site damage assessment provides an interesting new perspective and investigative aide to researchers. Using one of the strongest tornado events in US history, the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado, as a case example, we digitized the tornado damage path and co-registered the damage path using pre- and post-Landsat Thematic Mapper image data to perform a damage assessment. We employed several geospatial approaches, specifically the Getis index, Geary's C, and two lacunarity approaches to categorize damage characteristics according to the original Fujita tornado damage scale (F-scale). Our results indicate strong relationships between spatial indices computed within a local window and tornado F-scale damage categories identified through the ground survey. Consequently, linear regression models, even incorporating just a single band, appear effective in identifying F-scale damage categories using satellite imagery. This study demonstrates that satellite-based geospatial techniques can effectively add spatial perspectives to natural disaster damages, and in particular for this case study, tornado damages.

Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

OpenAIRE

Howcroft, Jennifer; Kofman, Jonathan; Lemaire, Edward D

2013-01-01

Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological f...

Risk assessment in the field of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berg, M.; Erdmann, G.; Leist, A.; Renn, O.; Schaber, P.; Scheringer, M.; Seiler, H.; Wiedenmann, R.

1995-01-01

The following subjects are dealt with in this book: - ethical thoughts on damage, risks and uncertainty, - risk evaluation from the point of view of sociology, - risk evaluation in the economy, - risk evaluation in law, - environmental damage due to the operation of energy generating systems. figs., tabs., refs

Marked point process framework for living probabilistic safety assessment and risk follow-up

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arjas, Elja; Holmberg, Jan

1995-01-01

We construct a model for living probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) by applying the general framework of marked point processes. The framework provides a theoretically rigorous approach for considering risk follow-up of posterior hazards. In risk follow-up, the hazard of core damage is evaluated synthetically at time points in the past, by using some observed events as logged history and combining it with re-evaluated potential hazards. There are several alternatives for doing this, of which we consider three here, calling them initiating event approach, hazard rate approach, and safety system approach. In addition, for a comparison, we consider a core damage hazard arising in risk monitoring. Each of these four definitions draws attention to a particular aspect in risk assessment, and this is reflected in the behaviour of the consequent risk importance measures. Several alternative measures are again considered. The concepts and definitions are illustrated by a numerical example

Crowdsourcing earthquake damage assessment using remote sensing imagery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stuart Gill

2011-06-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of recent work on using crowdsourced analysis of remote sensing imagery, particularly high-resolution aerial imagery, to provide rapid, reliable assessments of damage caused by earthquakes and potentially other disasters. The initial effort examined online imagery taken after the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. A more recent response to the 2010 Haiti earthquake led to the formation of an international consortium: the Global Earth Observation Catastrophe Assessment Network (GEO-CAN. The success of GEO-CAN in contributing to the official damage assessments made by the Government of Haiti, the United Nations, and the World Bank led to further development of a web-based interface. A current initiative in Christchurch, New Zealand, is underway where remote sensing experts are analyzing satellite imagery, geotechnical engineers are marking liquefaction areas, and structural engineers are identifying building damage. The current site includes online training to improve the accuracy of the assessments and make it possible for even novice users to contribute to the crowdsourced solution. The paper discusses lessons learned from these initiatives and presents a way forward for using crowdsourced remote sensing as a tool for rapid assessment of damage caused by natural disasters around the world.

Assessment of DNA damage in ceramic workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Anlar, Hatice Gul; Taner, Gokce; Bacanli, Merve; Iritas, Servet; Kurt, Turker; Tutkun, Engin; Yilmaz, Omer Hinc; Basaran, Nursen

2018-02-24

It is known that ceramic workers are potentially exposed to complex mixture of chemicals such as silica, inorganic lead, lime, beryllium and aluminum that can be associated with an increased risk of several diseases. All operations in the ceramic industries such as mixing, moulding, casting, shaking out and finishing jobs, have been associated with the higher exposure levels and in most of the silica-related industries, average overall exposure exceeded permissible exposure levels for respirable crystalline silica. The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible genotoxic damage in ceramic workers exposed to complex mixture of chemicals mainly crystalline silica. For this purpose, the blood and buccal epithelial cell samples were taken from the ceramic workers (n = 99) and their controls (n = 81). The genotoxicity was assessed by the alkaline comet assay in isolated lymphocytes and whole blood. Micronucleus (MN), binucleated (BN), pyknotic (PYC), condensed chromatin (CC), karyolytic (KYL), karyorrhectic (KHC) and nuclear bud (NBUD) frequencies in buccal epithelial cells and plasma 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodG) levels were also evaluated. In the study, 38 workers were diagnosed with silicosis, 9 workers were suspected to have silicosis, whereas 52 workers were found to be healthy. DNA damage in blood and lymphocytes; MN, CC + KHC, PYC frequencies in buccal epithelial cells and 8-oxodG levels in plasma were increased in workers compared to their controls. These results showed that occupational chemical mixture exposure in ceramic industry may cause genotoxic damage that can lead to important health problems in the workers.

A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

Science.gov (United States)

Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

Seismic risk assessment of building based on damaged database of 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake; Hyogoken nanbu jishin no hisai database wo mochiita kenchikubutsu no jishin risk hyoka ni kansuru kenkyu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suwa, H.; Nobata, A.; Seki, M. [Obayashi Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

2000-01-10

The objective of this paper is to evaluate a vulnerability function and a repair cost in terms of each structural damage level based on the damaged database of the 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe is calculated through the analytical results. As a result, the following are verified : 1. The expectation of vulnerability function, in which peak ground acceleration is taken for seismic intensity, is about 550 cm/s{sup 2} for minor damage, about 700 cm/s{sup 2} for moderate damage, and about 950 cm/s{sup 2} for major damage respectively. However, the coefficient of variation (C. O. V. ) is about 0.5 for all damage levels. 2. The expectation of repair cost per square meter is about 29000 yen for minor damage, about 60000 yen for moderate damage, and about 64000 yen for major damage respectively. However, the variation is very large, for example, the C. O. V. for repair cost varies from 1.2 to 1.6. 3. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe, that is normalized by new construction cost, is about three percent on condition that the design lifetime is assumed to be 50 years. (author)

Cancer risk assessments and environmental regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scroggin, D.G.

1990-01-01

Governmental regulation of toxic substances, such as carcinogens and radiation, prompts both legal and scientific controversies. Industry, environmental activist groups, government regulators, and the general public are all concerned with the question of how environmental risk to public health is to be measured and what level of risk warrants government action under the environmental laws. Several recent events shed light on the fundamental scientific and legal problems inherent in such regulation, and these events may affect the direction of future developments. These events include implementation of generic Risk Assessment Guidelines by the US EPA, litigation challenging EPA's regulation of carcinogenic substances, new scientific understanding of the relative risks from human exposure to natural and man-made sources, and the continuing growth of toxic tort litigation in which victims of cancer seek large damages from industrial emitters of pollution

Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Büchele

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.

Assessment of folic acid and DNA damage in cleft lip and cleft palate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sivakumar Brooklyin

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Studies have identified the risk factors like folic acid deficiency during gestational period, family history for orofacial clefts, drugs like antiepileptic, vitamin A. But, the data regarding the folic acid status in children with cleft lip/palate is hardly evaluated in depth. Here, an assessment of folic acid and DNA damage were carried out in children with orofacial anomalies. Folic acid level and DNA damage were evaluated by folic acid assay (direct chemiluminescent technology and single cell gel electrophoresis or comet assay method respectively. The mean value of plasma folic acid by direct chemiluminescent technology was 6.5±3.6 nmol/L and the normal value in children ranges from 11.3 to 47.6 nmol/L. The amount of damaged DNA, measured as the tail length of the comet in cases, was 19.4±8.9 ?m and the mean percentage of DNA in tail was 16.5±3.7. Folic acid deficiency could be the reason for DNA damage.

Coupling mode-destination accessibility with seismic risk assessment to identify at-risk communities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, Mahalia; Baker, Jack W.

2016-01-01

In this paper, we develop a framework for coupling mode-destination accessibility with quantitative seismic risk assessment to identify communities at high risk for travel disruptions after an earthquake. Mode-destination accessibility measures the ability of people to reach destinations they desire. We use a probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure, including a stochastic set of earthquake events, ground-motion intensity maps, damage maps, and realizations of traffic and accessibility impacts. For a case study of the San Francisco Bay Area, we couple our seismic risk framework with a practical activity-based traffic model. As a result, we quantify accessibility risk probabilistically by community and household type. We find that accessibility varies more strongly as a function of travelers' geographic location than as a function of their income class, and we identify particularly at-risk communities. We also observe that communities more conducive to local trips by foot or bike are predicted to be less impacted by losses in accessibility. This work shows the potential to link quantitative risk assessment methodologies with high-resolution travel models used by transportation planners. Quantitative risk metrics of this type should have great utility for planners working to reduce risk to a region's infrastructure systems. - Highlights: • We couple mode-destination accessibility with probabilistic seismic risk assessment. • Results identify communities at high risk for post-earthquake travel disruptions. • Accessibility varies more as a function of home location than by income. • Our model predicts reduced accessibility risk for more walking-friendly communities.

Assessing Hurricane Katrina Vegetation Damage at Stennis Space Center using IKONOS Image Classification Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Ross, Kenton W.; Graham, William D.

2007-01-01

Hurricane Katrina hit southwestern Mississippi on August 29, 2005, at 9:45 a.m. CDT as a category 3 storm with surges up to approx. 9 m and sustained winds of approx. 120 mph. The hurricane's wind, rain, and flooding devastated several coastal towns, from New Orleans through Mobile. The storm also caused significant damage to infrastructure and vegetation of NASA's SSC (Stennis Space Center). Storm recovery at SSC involved not only repairs of critical infrastructure but also forest damage mitigation (via timber harvests and control burns to reduce fire risk). This presentation discusses an effort to use commercially available high spatial resolution multispectral IKONOS data for vegetation damage assessment, based on data collected over SSC on September 2, 2005.

Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

2009-04-01

The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

Changes in subclinical organ damage vs. in Framingham risk score for assessing cardiovascular risk reduction during continued antihypertensive treatment: a LIFE substudy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Michael H; Wachtell, Kristian; Ibsen, Hans

2011-01-01

To investigate whether in-treatment measurements of subclinical organ damage (SOD) assessed by elevated urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) or electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy improved the prediction of the composite cardiovascular endpoint of cardiovascular death, nonfatal...

The assessment of technical risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaeger, T.A.

1978-01-01

The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

Risk assessment and early warning systems for industrial facilities in seismic zones

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salzano, Ernesto; Garcia Agreda, Anita; Di Carluccio, Antonio; Fabbrocino, Giovanni

2009-01-01

Industrial equipments and systems can suffer structural damage when hit by earthquakes, so that accidental scenarios as fire, explosion and dispersion of toxic substances can take place. As a result, overall damage to people, environment and properties increases. The present paper deals with seismic risk analysis of industrial facilities where atmospheric storage tanks (anchored or unanchored to ground), horizontal pressurised tanks, reactors and pumps are installed. Simplified procedures and methodologies based on historical database and literature data on natural-technological (Na-Tech) accidents for seismic risk assessment are discussed. Equipment-specific fragility curves have been thus derived depending on a single earthquake measure, peak ground acceleration (PGA). Fragility parameters have been then transformed to linear probit coefficients in order to obtain reliable threshold values for earthquake intensity measure, both for structural damage and loss of containment. These threshold values are of great interest when development of active and passive mitigation actions and systems, safety management, and the implementation of early warning system are concerned. The approach is general and can be implemented in any available code or procedure for risk assessment. Some results of seismic analysis of atmospheric storage tanks are also presented for validation.

Damage assessment in structure from changes in static parameter ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

damage assessment methodology will be a valuable tool in timely ... of the numerical model to the physical system are prerequisites for success. Wu et al ... The objective of the present paper is to locate and assess the damage occurring at any posi- ... This method leads to the recent very popular neural network learning.

Key outcomes from risk based assessment of pressure equipment in refineries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firth, D.; Lichti, K.; Hill, T.; Thomas, C.; Widrig, J.; Simmonds, G.; Karstensen, A.

2012-01-01

Risk based assessment (RBA) has become the best industry practice for management of pressure equipment reliability. Application of RBA programs significantly reduces risk and gives opportunity to optimize inspection programs and produce long term financial benefits. Quest Integrity Group have implemented risk based inspection programs n a variety of industries including ammonia, methanol, geothermal power, :combined cycle power, gas turbines, gas production facilities and refineries. This paper outlines the semi quantitative RBA procedures that have been followed and lists some of the specific technical outcomes. Advanced inspection and life assessment methods used in support of RBI in refineries ire discussed. Piping in refineries is a key risk issue and it is not uncommon for piping failures to result in major incidents. Specific inspection programs are available to monitor differing damage processes such as flow assisted corrosion, hydrogen damage and corrosion under insulation. During assessment it s often found that numerous pipes have never been inspected especially underground smaller diameter pipes which are frequently considered to be un-piggable using conventional technologies and difficult to inspect. Advanced high accuracy flexible miniaturized ultrasonic intelligent pigging combined with fitness for service assessment such as Invista TM is recommended for inspection of critical pipelines which previously have been un-piggable. The processing of crude oil from a range of sources can result in significant variations in the levels of contaminants such as chlorides and sulfides. Major failures have occurred as a result of very rapid increases in corrosion rates in hydrotreating processes due to rapid changes in chemistry. The outcome of the assessment of plants that have potentially high and variable levels of contaminants often results in a review the process chemistry, how it is monitored and development of a detailed corrosion monitoring program. Fired

Risk assessment of natural disasters in the course of selection of nuclear waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Weicheng; Ai Guigen

1995-01-01

Natural disasters are calamities which bring about enormous damage to human beings and their accommodations and equipment. Based on the research of disaster risk and example study of volcanism, we tried to carry out the risk assessment of natural disasters which potentially occur in the candidate area of nuclear waste disposal by three steps of analyses, defining the most frequent occurring area of disasters, determining the parameters of risk assessment and dividing the most dangerous site and risk grades

The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Results and insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.

1993-01-01

This paper summarizes the results from the recently completed EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1. 6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The probability of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquake) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 . overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double, vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability

A survey of ecological risk assessment at DOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnthouse, L.W.; Bascietto, J.; Joseph, T.; Bilyard, G.

1992-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Risk-Based Standards Working Group is studying standard-setting and remedial action based on realistic estimates of human health and ecological risks. Federal and state regulations require DOE to assess ecological risks due to present and past operation of DOE facilities and ecological damage caused by remedial actions. Unfortunately, little technical guidance has been provided by regulatory agencies about how these assessments should be performed or what constitutes an adequate assessment. Active ecological research, environmental characterization, and ecological risk assessment programs are already underway at many locations. Some of these programs were established more than 30 years ago. Because of the strength of its existing programs and the depth of expertise available within the DOE complex, the agency is in a position to lead in developing ecological risk assessment procedures that are fully consistent with the general principles defined by EPA and that will ensure environmentally sound and cost-effective restoration of its sites. As a prelude to guidance development, the working group conducted a survey of ecological risk assessment activities at a subset of major DOE facilities. The survey was intended to (1) identify approaches now being used in ecological risk assessments performed by DOE staff and contractors at each site, (2) record successes and failures of these approaches, (3) identify new technical developments with potential for general application to many DOE facilities, and (4) identify major data needs, data resources, and methodological deficiencies

Terrorism cover in France for property damage including nuclear risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stanislas, A.

2004-01-01

The obligation to include terrorism cover in all Property Damage policies issued on the French Market is ruled by an Act of 1986 and introduced under Section R 126-2 of the French Code of Insurance. This section stipulates that Property Damage policies must provide cover for damage resulting from acts of terrorism, with the same deductible and the same limit than that of the other damage covered in the policy. Soon after the dramatic events of September 11, 2001 in the United States and although reinsurers worldwide restricted their offer of capacities, French insurers recognized that they had to maintain this global cover for the benefit of their insurers. After difficult discussions between insurers, reinsurers, brokers, risk managers and representatives of the State, the creation of a new Pool, backed with a State guarantee, was decided in less than three months. Effective January 1, 2002 and called Gestion d'Assurance et de Reassurance des Risques Attentats et Actes de Terrorisme (GAREAT), the Pool offers a multiple layers stop-loss cover for Property Damage only, i.e. excluding TPL policies. Considering that nuclear risks should be treated in the same way as other industrial risks, it was decided that they would be covered by GAREAT as well. In the meantime, by a Decree of December 28, 2001 modifying Section R 126-2, a special provision, aiming at reducing the limit and thus the price of this cover, was introduced in the Code. The purpose of this paper is to expose the present situation applying through GAREAT and, after two years of operation to discuss future developments, including other sources of capacity for the coverage of acts of terrorism in nuclear risks insurance.(author)

Seismic damage assessment for high-rise buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Scholl, Roger E.

1980-01-01

The problem considered in this project, conducted by URS/John A. Blume & Associates, Engineers (URS/Blume), for the U.S. Geological Survey, is the identification, evaluation, and correlation of ground-motion and structural parameters in order to improve procedures for predicting dollar losses for high-rise structures damaged by earthquakes. Ground-motion data bases, analytical techniques, and known motion-damage relationships already developed for high-rise buildings and for other classes of structures will be refined and extended so that reliable quantitative seismic risk evaluations can be made.

Reconstructing patterns of temperature, phenology, and frost damage over 124 years: spring damage risk is increasing.

Science.gov (United States)

Augspurger, Carol K

2013-01-01

Climate change, with both warmer spring temperatures and greater temperature fluctuations, has altered phenologies, possibly leading to greater risk of spring frost damage to temperate deciduous woody plants. Phenological observations of 20 woody species from 1993 to 2012 in Trelease Woods, Champaign County, Illinois, USA, were used to identify years with frost damage to vegetative and reproductive phases. Local temperature records were used in combination with the phenological observations to determine what combinations of the two were associated with damage. Finally, a long-term temperature record (1889-1992) was evaluated to determine if the frequency of frost damage has risen in recent decades. Frost Frost damage occurred in five years in the interior and in three additional years at only the forest edge. The degree of damage varied with species, life stage, tissue (vegetative or reproductive), and phenological phase. Common features associated with the occurrence of damage to interior plants were (1) a period of unusual warm temperatures in March, followed by (2) a frost event in April with a minimum temperature frost damage increased significantly, from 0.03 during 1889-1979 to 0.21 during 1980-2012. When the criteria were "softened" to frost damage events more common.

Assessment of fracture risk in a cohort of Egyptian female Systemic Lupus erythematosus patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eman A. Hafez

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Aim of the work: To assess the fracture risk in a cohort of Egyptian systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE females in correlation to some disease variables. Patients and methods: Seventy female SLE patients ≥40 years old were enrolled with detailed history taking, assessment of disease activity and damage index. Measurement of Serum calcium, phosphorus and alkaline phosphatase, bone mineral density (BMD by dual emission X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA at lumbar spine (LS and femoral neck (FN, serum osteocalcin level and World Health Organization (WHO fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®. Results: 20% of the patients had LS osteoporosis, 35.7% LS osteopenia, 8.6% FN osteoporosis, and 42.9% FN osteopenia. Ten-year risk of major and hip fractures was high in SLE patients evidenced by FRAX-Major ≥20% in 10% of patients, and FRAX-Hip ≥3% in 27.1% of patients. Serum osteocalcin level was significantly decreased in SLE patients with lower BMD than those with normal BMD, and significantly decreased in patients with osteoporosis than those with osteopenia. A significant negative correlation was found between osteocalcin level and age of patients, disease duration, disease activity and damage index scores, current intravenous pulse and cumulative steroids, immunosuppressants, anticoagulants, but there was a positive correlation with antimalarials and calcium supplements. Conclusion: Ten-year risk of major and hip fractures was high in SLE patients. Increasing age, disease duration, high anti-DNA titres, higher disease activity and damage index were associated with a higher fracture risk. FRAX predicted fractures among SLE patients with normal and low bone mass not just those with frank osteoporosis. Physicians should be alerted to the higher risk of future fractures in SLE patients for periodic monitoring. Keywords: Systemic lupus erythematosus, Bone mineral density, Osteoporosis, Fracture risk, Fracture risk assessment tool

Methodology for a GIS-based damage assessment for researchers following large scale disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Crawford, Patrick Shane

The 1990s were designated the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction by the United Nations General Assembly. This push for decrease of loss of life, property destruction, and social and economic disruption brought advancements in disaster management, including damage assessment. Damage assessment in the wake of natural and manmade disasters is a useful tool for government agencies, insurance companies, and researchers. As technologies evolve damage assessment processes constantly evolve as well. Alongside the advances in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, as well as the growing awareness of the needs of a standard operating procedure for GIS-based damage assessment and a need to make the damage assessment process as quick and accurate as possible, damage assessment procedures are becoming easier to execute and the results are becoming more accurate and robust. With these technological breakthroughs, multi-disciplinary damage assessment reconnaissance teams have become more efficient in their assessment methods through better organization and more robust through addition of new datasets. Damage assessment personnel are aided by software tools that offer high-level analysis and increasingly rapid damage assessment methods. GIS software has advanced the damage assessment methods of these teams by combining remotely sensed aerial imagery, GPS, and other technologies to expand the uses of the data. GIS allows researchers to use aerial imagery to show field collected data in the geographic location that it was collected so that information can be revisited, measurements can be taken, and data can be disseminated to other researchers and the public. The GIS-based data available to the reconnaissance team includes photographs of damage, worksheets, calculations, voice messages collected while studying the affected area, and many other datasets which are based on the type of disaster and the

Effectiveness of FDA's new over-the-counter acetaminophen warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage.

Science.gov (United States)

Goyal, R K; Rajan, S S; Essien, E J; Sansgiry, S S

2012-12-01

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued new organ-specific warning label requirements for over-the-counter (OTC) analgesic products in order to make consumers aware of the risk of liver damage when using acetaminophen. However, awareness of a health risk alone cannot ensure consumers' engagement in safe and preventive behaviour. In this study, we attempted to: (i) measure consumer risk perception of liver damage due to the OTC acetaminophen products and (ii) analyse the effectiveness of the new organ-specific warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage and intention to perform protective behaviours while using OTC acetaminophen products. This within-subject experimental study used a convenience sample of English-speaking adults visiting OTC segments of selected pharmacy stores in Houston. Participants were randomly exposed to the old and new warning labels and their respective risk perception (measured on a visual analogue scale, 0%, no risk, to 100%, extreme risk) and behavioural intention (measured on a 7-point Likert scale) were recorded using a validated, self-administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were performed using sas statistical software (v 9.2) at a priori significance level of 0.05. Majority of participants (74.4%) were not aware of the new warnings; however, majority (67.8%) had prior knowledge of the risk. The mean risk perception score for the new warning label was found to be significantly higher (72.2% vs. 65.9%, P risk perception of potential liver damage and may encourage protective behaviour. However, future studies are essential to assess the impact of the new label on actual changes in consumer behaviour and subsequent reduction in acetaminophen-related morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A Risk-Based Approach to Shelter Resilience following Flood and Typhoon Damage in Rural Philippines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria Stephenson

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The Philippines is exposed to numerous typhoons every year, each of which poses a potential threat to livelihoods, shelter, and in some cases life. Flooding caused by such events leads to extensive damage to land and buildings, and the impact on rural communities can be severe. The global community is calling for action to address and achieve disaster risk reduction for communities and people exposed to such events. Achieving this requires an understanding of the nature of the risks that flooding and typhoons pose to these communities and their homes. This paper presents the findings from a field based case study assessment of three rural settlements in the Philippines, where typhoons and associated flooding in recent years has caused significant damage to houses and livelihoods, leading to the reconstruction of homes that more often than not reproduce similar structural vulnerabilities as were there before these hazards occurred. This work presents a methodology for risk assessment of such structures profiling the flood and wind hazards and measuring physical vulnerability and the experience of communities affected. The aim of the work is to demonstrate a method for identifying risks in these communities, and seeks to address the challenge faced by practitioners of assisting communities in rebuilding their homes in more resilient ways. The work set out here contributes to the discussion about how best to enable practitioners and communities to achieve the sought for risk reduction and especially highlights the role that geoscience and engineering can have in achieving this ambition.

Prevention of damage and 'residual risk' in nuclear power laws

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greipl, C.

1992-01-01

The concept of prevention of damage within the framework of nuclear power laws includes averting danger for the protection of third parties and preventing risks for the partial protection of third parties with the proviso that still a desire to use the concept 'residual risk' in addition, it should be limited, on the grounds of what can be reasonably expected, to those risks which cannot be reduced any further by the government, i.e. to risks which the public in general and third parties ('actually') must accept. In the future, questions regarding safety systems should be taken into account exclusively withing the context of 'what is necessary for protection against damage in keeping with the latest developments in science and technology' and not at the discretion of the law in denying permission according to Article 7 Paragraph 2 Atomic Energy Law. (orig.) [de

The comet assay: assessment of in vitro and in vivo DNA damage.

Science.gov (United States)

Bajpayee, Mahima; Kumar, Ashutosh; Dhawan, Alok

2013-01-01

Rapid industrialization and pursuance of a better life have led to an increase in the amount of chemicals in the environment, which are deleterious to human health. Pesticides, automobile exhausts, and new chemical entities all add to air pollution and have an adverse effect on all living organisms including humans. Sensitive test systems are thus required for accurate hazard identification and risk assessment. The Comet assay has been used widely as a simple, rapid, and sensitive tool for assessment of DNA damage in single cells from both in vitro and in vivo sources as well as in humans. Already, the in vivo comet assay has gained importance as the preferred test for assessing DNA damage in animals for some international regulatory guidelines. The advantages of the in vivo comet assay are its ability to detect DNA damage in any tissue, despite having non-proliferating cells, and its sensitivity to detect genotoxicity. The recommendations from the international workshops held for the comet assay have resulted in establishment of guidelines. The in vitro comet assay conducted in cultured cells and cell lines can be used for screening large number of compounds and at very low concentrations. The in vitro assay has also been automated to provide a high-throughput screening method for new chemical entities, as well as environmental samples. This chapter details the in vitro comet assay using the 96-well plate and in vivo comet assay in multiple organs of the mouse.

Vibration Based Damage Assessment of a Cantilever using a Neural Network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Rytter, A.

In this paper the possibility of using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network trained with with the Backpropagation Algorithm as a non-destructive damage assessment technique to locate and quantify a damage in structures is investigated.......In this paper the possibility of using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network trained with with the Backpropagation Algorithm as a non-destructive damage assessment technique to locate and quantify a damage in structures is investigated....

Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

Science.gov (United States)

Titarenko, Boris

2017-10-01

The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

Actual problems of environmental factors risk assessment on human health and ways to improve it

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y.A. Rakhmanin

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article provides an analysis of global trends and new areas of health risk assessment and analysis methodology caused by exposure to chemicals, environmental pollutants, and the contemporary issues of national assessment methodology. Most details are considered: risk assessment evidence base, modern methods and problems of carcinogenic risk assessment, hygienic regulation based on risk assessment, the economic aspects of the methodology. Particular attention is paid to reasons of recent years perceived gaps in the Russian methodological basis of the best foreign samples. The urgent measures to improve the national risk assessment methodology are proposed, the main of which are: legislative consolidation of the basic concepts of risk assessment, a further update of the methodology and the practice of hygienic regulation on the basis of risk assessment, improving the valuation of damage to human health, the tightening of the requirements to the developed regulatory guidance documents on risk assessment, as well as to the training and retraining of personnel in the risk assessment.

Nonlinear resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (NRUS) applied to damage assessment in bone

Science.gov (United States)

Muller, Marie; Sutin, Alexander; Guyer, Robert; Talmant, Maryline; Laugier, Pascal; Johnson, Paul A.

2005-12-01

Nonlinear resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (NRUS) is a resonance-based technique exploiting the significant nonlinear behavior of damaged materials. In NRUS, the resonant frequency(ies) of an object is studied as a function of the excitation level. As the excitation level increases, the elastic nonlinearity is manifest by a shift in the resonance frequency. This study shows the feasibility of this technique for application to damage assessment in bone. Two samples of bovine cortical bone were subjected to progressive damage induced by application of mechanical cycling. Before cycling commenced, and at each step in the cycling process, NRUS was applied for damage assessment. For independent assessment of damage, high-energy x-ray computed tomography imaging was performed but was only useful in identifying the prominent cracks. As the integral quantity of damage increased, NRUS revealed a corresponding increase in the nonlinear response. The measured change in nonlinear response is much more sensitive than the change in linear modulus. The results suggest that NRUS could be a potential tool for micro-damage assessment in bone. Further work must be carried out for a better understanding of the physical nature of damaged bone and for the ultimate goal of the challenging in vivo implementation of the technique.

Cancer risk and oxidative DNA damage in man

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Loft, S; Poulsen, H E

1996-01-01

with a mechanistically based increased risk of cancer, including Fanconi anemia, chronic hepatitis, cystic fibrosis, and various autoimmune diseases, the biomarker studies indicate an increased rate of oxidative DNA damage or in some instances deficient repair. Human studies support the experimentally based notion...

People with Increased Risk of Eye Damage from UV Light

Science.gov (United States)

... With Increased Risk of Eye Damage from UV Light Leer en Español: Algunas Personas Están en Mayor Riesgo de Sufrir Daño Ocular por los Rayos UV Written By: Shirley Dang Apr. 30, 2014 Everyone of any age and any degree of skin pigmentation is susceptible to UV damage. Children are ...

Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment methodology and results summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Thatcher, T.A.

1992-01-01

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Level 1 report documents a comprehensive and state-of-the-art study to establish and reduce the risk associated with operation of the ATR, expressed as a mean frequency of fuel damage. The ATR Level 1 PRA effort is unique and outstanding because of its consistent and state-of-the-art treatment of all facets of the risk study, its comprehensive and cost-effective risk reduction effort while the risk baseline was being established, and its thorough and comprehensive documentation. The PRA includes many improvements to the state-of-the-art, including the following: establishment of a comprehensive generic data base for component failures, treatment of initiating event frequencies given significant plant improvements in recent years, performance of efficient identification and screening of fire and flood events using code-assisted vital area analysis, identification and treatment of significant seismic-fire-flood-wind interactions, and modeling of large loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) and experiment loop ruptures leading to direct damage of the ATR core. 18 refs

The NUREG-1150 probabilistic risk assessment for the Grand Gulf nuclear station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, T.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.

1992-01-01

This paper summarizes the findings of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station performed in support of NUREG-1150. The emphasis is on the 'back-end' analyses, that is, the acident progression, source term, consequence analsyes, and risk results obtained when the results of these analyses are combined with the accident frequency analysis. The offsite risk from internal initiating events was found to be quite low, both with respect to the safety goals and to the other plants analyzed in NUREG-1150. The offsite risk is dominated by short-term station blackout plant damage states. The long-term blackout group and the anticiptated transients without scram (ATWS) group contribute considerably less to risk. Transients in which the power conversion system is unavailable are very minor contributors to risk. The low values for risk can be attributed to low core damage frequency, good emergency response, and plant features that reduce the potential source term. (orig.)

Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

2014-05-01

Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

Results of the AP600 advanced plant probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bueter, T.; Sancaktar, S.; Freeland, J.

1997-01-01

The AP600 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) includes detailed models of the plant systems, including the containment and containment systems that would be used to mitigate the consequences of a severe accident. The AP600 PRA includes a level 1 analysis (core damage frequency), and a level 2 analysis (environmental consequences), an assessment of the plant vulnerability to accidents caused by fire or floods, and a seismic margins analysis. Numerous sensitivities are included in the AP600 PRA including one that assumes no credit for non-safety plant systems. The core damage frequency for the AP600 of 1.7E-07/year is small compared with other PRAs performed in the nuclear industry. The AP600 large release frequency of 1.8E-08/year is also small and shows the ability of the containment systems to prevent a large release should a severe accident occur. Analyses of potential consequences to the environment from a severe accident show that a release would be small, and that containment still provides significant protection 24 hours after an assumed accident. Sensitivity analyses show that plant risk (as measured by core damage frequency and large release frequency) is not sensitive to the reliability of operator actions. 6 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.

2011-01-01

Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Diet-Induced Weight Loss Reduces DNA Damage and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Overweight/Obese Women with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Soares, Nayara Pereira; Santos, Ana Celly Souza dos; Costa, Eduardo Caldas; Azevedo, George Dantas; Damasceno, Débora Cristina; Fayh, Ana Paula Trussardi; Lemos, Telma Maria Araújo Moura

2016-01-01

We aimed to investigate the impact of following a diet to induce weight loss (500 kcal deficit per day) over DNA damage and cardiometabolic risk factors in women with overweight/obesity diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A study was conducted in Natal, RN, Brazil selecting overweight/obese (body mass index ≥25 and weight loss, decreased sexual hormone and cardiometabolic markers such as insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were verified In the multivariate regression analysis, quantitative insulin sensitivity check index and progesterone were responsible for the variation markers in DNA damage before the diet, losing its influence upon diet. DNA damage and the impact of cardiometabolic risk factors decreased after the intervention in women with PCOS, indicating the relevance of a nutritional approach in this group of patients. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Flood damage in Italy: towards an assessment model of reconstruction costs

Science.gov (United States)

Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Genovese, Elisabetta; Modica, Marco; Zoboli, Roberto

2016-04-01

Recent decades in Italy have seen a very rapid expansion of urbanisation in terms of physical assets, while demographics have remained stable. Both the characteristics of Italian soil and anthropic development, along with repeated global climatic stress, have made the country vulnerable to floods, the intensity of which is increasingly alarming. The combination of these trends will contribute to large financial losses due to property damage in the absence of specific mitigation strategies. The present study focuses on the province of Sondrio in Northern Italy (area of about 3,200 km²), which is home to more than 180,000 inhabitants and the population is growing slightly. It is clearly a hot spot for flood exposure, as it is primarily a mountainous area where floods and flash floods hit frequently. The model we use for assessing potential flood damage determines risk scenarios by overlaying flood hazard maps and economic asset data. In Italy, hazard maps are provided by Regional Authorities through the Hydrogeological System Management Plan (PAI) based on EU Flood Directive guidelines. The PAI in the study area includes both the large plain and the secondary river system and considers three hazard scenarios of Low, Medium and High Frequency associated with return periods of 20, 200 and 500 years and related water levels. By an overlay of PAI maps and residential areas, visualized on a GIS, we determine which existing built-up areas are at risk for flood according to each scenario. Then we investigate the value of physical assets potentially affected by floods in terms of market values, using the database of the Italian Property Market Observatory (OMI), and in terms of reconstruction costs, by considering synthetic cost indexes of predominant building types (from census information) and PAI water height. This study illustrates a methodology to assess flood damage in urban settlements and aims to determine general guidelines that can be extended throughout Italy

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales, Colombia:Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Mario A.Salgado-Gálvez; Gabriel A.Bernal; Daniela Zuloaga; Mabel C.Marulanda; Omar-Darío Cardona; Sebastián Henao

2017-01-01

A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales,Colombia,considering assets of different types.The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network,and the second type includes public and private buildings.This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response,assembling high resolution exposure databases,and the development of damage models for different types of elements.The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration.The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System,obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve,average annual loss,and probable maximum loss.For the case of pipelines,repair rates were also estimated.The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies,as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical,probabilistic,and prospective damage and loss estimations.In the case of the buildings,the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.

Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

1999-01-01

Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

Using risk maps to link land value damage and risk as basis of flexible risk management for brownfield redevelopment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, I-chun; Ma, Hwong-wen

2013-02-01

Brownfield redevelopment involves numerous uncertain financial risks associated with market demand and land value. To reduce the uncertainty of the specific impact of land value and social costs, this study develops small-scale risk maps to determine the relationship between population risk (PR) and damaged land value (DLV) to facilitate flexible land reutilisation plans. This study used the spatial variability of exposure parameters in each village to develop the contaminated site-specific risk maps. In view of the combination of risk and cost, risk level that most affected land use was mainly 1.00×10(-6) to 1.00×10(-5) in this study area. Village 2 showed the potential for cost-effective conversion with contaminated land development. If the risk of remediation target was set at 5.00×10(-6), the DLV could be reduced by NT$15,005 million for the land developer. The land developer will consider the net benefit by quantifying the trade-off between the changes of land value and the cost of human health. In this study, small-scale risk maps can illuminate the economic incentive potential for contaminated site redevelopment through the adjustment of land value damage and human health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Earthquake risk assessment of Alexandria, Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Badawy, Ahmed; Gaber, Hanan; Ibrahim, Hamza

2015-01-01

Throughout historical and recent times, Alexandria has suffered great damage due to earthquakes from both near- and far-field sources. Sometimes, the sources of such damages are not well known. During the twentieth century, the city was shaken by several earthquakes generated from inland dislocations (e.g., 29 Apr. 1974, 12 Oct. 1992, and 28 Dec. 1999) and the African continental margin (e.g., 12 Sept. 1955 and 28 May 1998). Therefore, this study estimates the earthquake ground shaking and the consequent impacts in Alexandria on the basis of two earthquake scenarios. The simulation results show that Alexandria affected by both earthquakes scenarios relatively in the same manner despite the number of casualties during the first scenario (inland dislocation) is twice larger than the second one (African continental margin). An expected percentage of 2.27 from Alexandria's total constructions (12.9 millions, 2006 Census) will be affected, 0.19 % injuries and 0.01 % deaths of the total population (4.1 millions, 2006 Census) estimated by running the first scenario. The earthquake risk profile reveals that three districts (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) lie in high seismic risks, two districts (Gharb and Wasat) are in moderate, and two districts (Al-Gomrok and Burg El-Arab) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Al-Montazah is the highest vulnerable district whereas 73 % of expected damages were reported there. The undertaken analysis shows that the Alexandria urban area faces high risk. Informal areas and deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated earthquake risks (buildings damages) are concentrated at the most densely populated (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts.

Risk assessment of cadmium-contaminated soil on plant DNA damage using RAPD and physiological indices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Wan; Yang, Y.S.; Li, P.J.; Zhou, Q.X.; Xie, L.J.; Han, Y.P.

2009-01-01

Impact assessment of contaminants in soil is an important issue in environmental quality study and remediation of contaminated land. A random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) 'fingerprinting' technique was exhibited to detect genotoxin-induced DNA damage of plants from heavy metal contaminated soil. This study compared the effects occurring at molecular and population levels in barley seedlings exposed to cadmium (Cd) contamination in soil. Results indicate that reduction of root growth and increase of total soluble protein level in the root tips of barley seedlings occurred with the ascending Cd concentrations. For the RAPD analyses, nine 10-base pair (bp) random RAPD primers (decamers) with 60-70% GC content were found to produce unique polymorphic band patterns and subsequently were used to produce a total of 129 RAPD fragments of 144-2639 base pair in molecular size in the root tips of control seedlings. Results produced from nine primers indicate that the changes occurring in RAPD profiles of the root tips following Cd treatment included alterations in band intensity as well as gain or loss of bands compared with the control seedlings. New amplified fragments at molecular size from approximately 154 to 2245 bp appeared almost for 10, 20 and 40 mg L -1 Cd with 9 primers (one-four new polymerase chain reaction, (PCR) products), and the number of missing bands enhanced with the increasing Cd concentration for nine primers. These results suggest that genomic template stability reflecting changes in RAPD profiles were significantly affected and it compared favourably with the traditional indices such as growth and soluble protein level at the above Cd concentrations. The DNA polymorphisms detected by RAPD can be applied as a suitable biomarker assay for detection of the genotoxic effects of Cd stress in soil on plants. As a tool in risk assessment the RAPD assay can be used in characterisation of Cd hazard in soil

A long-term, continuous simulation approach for large-scale flood risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kreibich, Heidi; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

The Regional Flood Model (RFM) is a process based model cascade developed for flood risk assessments of large-scale basins. RFM consists of four model parts: the rainfall-runoff model SWIM, a 1D channel routing model, a 2D hinterland inundation model and the flood loss estimation model for residential buildings FLEMOps+r. The model cascade was recently undertaken a proof-of-concept study at the Elbe catchment (Germany) to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, hydrodynamic and damage estimation models, are feasible for large catchments. The results of this study indicated that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This was basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breaches. Therefore, RFM was applied with a refined hydraulic model setup for the Elbe tributary Mulde. The study area Mulde catchment comprises about 6,000 km2 and 380 river-km. The inclusion of more reliable information on overbank cross-sections and dikes considerably improved the results. For the application of RFM for flood risk assessments, long-term climate input data is needed to drive the model chain. This model input was provided by a multi-site, multi-variate weather generator that produces sets of synthetic meteorological data reproducing the current climate statistics. The data set comprises 100 realizations of 100 years of meteorological data. With the proposed continuous simulation approach of RFM, we simulated a virtual period of 10,000 years covering the entire flood risk chain including hydrological, 1D/2D hydrodynamic and flood damage estimation models. This provided a record of around 2.000 inundation events affecting the study area with spatially detailed information on inundation depths and damage to residential buildings on a resolution of 100 m. This serves as basis for a spatially consistent, flood risk assessment for the Mulde catchment presented in

Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anders Skovgård Olsen

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift in the damage costs as a function of the return period. The shift occurs approximately at the 10 year return period and can perhaps be related to the design criteria for sewer systems. Further, it was tested if the EAD estimation could be simplified by assuming a single unit cost per flooded area. The results indicate that within each catchment this may be a feasible approach. However the unit costs varies substantially between different case study areas. Hence it is not feasible to develop unit costs that can be used to calculate EAD, most likely because the urban landscape is too heterogeneous.

Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Seismic Damage for Buildings in Mid-America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bai, Jong-Wha; Hueste, Mary Beth D.; Gardoni, Paolo

2008-01-01

This paper provides an approach to conduct a probabilistic assessment of structural damage due to seismic events with an application to typical building structures in Mid-America. The developed methodology includes modified damage state classifications based on the ATC-13 and ATC-38 damage states and the ATC-38 database of building damage. Damage factors are assigned to each damage state to quantify structural damage as a percentage of structural replacement cost. To account for the inherent uncertainties, these factors are expressed as random variables with a Beta distribution. A set of fragility curves, quantifying the structural vulnerability of a building, is mapped onto the developed methodology to determine the expected structural damage. The total structural damage factor for a given seismic intensity is then calculated using a probabilistic approach. Prediction and confidence bands are also constructed to account for the prevailing uncertainties. The expected seismic structural damage is assessed for a typical building structure in the Mid-America region using the developed methodology. The developed methodology provides a transparent procedure, where the structural damage factors can be updated as additional seismic damage data becomes available

"Fair" Mathematics in Assessing Delictual Damages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L Steynberg

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the actuary is to guide the court in the calculations to be made. Relying on its wide judicial discretion the court will have the final say regarding the correctness of the assumptions on which these calculations are based. The court should give detailed reasons if any assumptions or parts of the calculations made by the actuary are rejected. It should preferably refrain from making its own calculations if an actuary is involved and should rather instruct the actuary to do recalculations if necessary. It does, however, fall within the wide discretion of the court to make a general contingency adjustment after the basic calculations have been accepted. In assessing delictual damages it is the duty of the court to ensure that both objective and subjective factors are considered in such a manner that the assessment may be regarded as an application of "fair" mathematics.

Mobile augmented reality in support of building damage and safety assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, W.; Kerle, N.; Gerke, M.

2016-02-01

Rapid and accurate assessment of the state of buildings in the aftermath of a disaster event is critical for an effective and timely response. For rapid damage assessment of buildings, the utility of remote sensing (RS) technology has been widely researched, with focus on a range of platforms and sensors. However, RS-based approaches still have limitations to assess structural integrity and the specific damage status of individual buildings. Structural integrity refers to the ability of a building to hold the entire structure. Consequently, ground-based assessment conducted by structural engineers and first responders is still required. This paper demonstrates the concept of mobile augmented reality (mAR) to improve performance of building damage and safety assessment in situ. Mobile AR provides a means to superimpose various types of reference or pre-disaster information (virtual data) on actual post-disaster building data (real buildings). To adopt mobile AR, this study defines a conceptual framework based on the level of complexity (LOC). The framework consists of four LOCs, and for each of these, the data types, required processing steps, AR implementation and use for damage assessment are described. Based on this conceptualization we demonstrate prototypes of mAR for both indoor and outdoor purposes. Finally, we conduct a user evaluation of the prototypes to validate the mAR approach for building damage and safety assessment.

POST-DISASTER DAMAGE ASSESSMENT THROUGH COHERENT CHANGE DETECTION ON SAR IMAGERY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Guida

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Damage assessment is a fundamental step to support emergency response and recovery activities in a post-earthquake scenario. In recent years, UAVs and satellite optical imagery was applied to assess major structural damages before technicians could reach the areas affected by the earthquake. However, bad weather conditions may harm the quality of these optical assessments, thus limiting the practical applicability of these techniques. In this paper, the application of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR imagery is investigated and a novel approach to SAR-based damage assessment is presented. Coherent Change Detection (CCD algorithms on multiple interferometrically pre-processed SAR images of the area affected by the seismic event are exploited to automatically detect potential damages to buildings and other physical structures. As a case study, the 2016 Central Italy earthquake involving the cities of Amatrice and Accumoli was selected. The main contribution of the research outlined above is the integration of a complex process, requiring the coordination of a variety of methods and tools, into a unitary framework, which allows end-to-end application of the approach from SAR data pre-processing to result visualization in a Geographic Information System (GIS. A prototype of this pipeline was implemented, and the outcomes of this methodology were validated through an extended comparison with traditional damage assessment maps, created through photo-interpretation of high resolution aerial imagery. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is able to perform damage detection with a good level of accuracy, as most of the detected points of change are concentrated around highly damaged buildings.

Post-Disaster Damage Assessment Through Coherent Change Detection on SAR Imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Guida, L.; Boccardo, P.; Donevski, I.; Lo Schiavo, L.; Molinari, M. E.; Monti-Guarnieri, A.; Oxoli, D.; Brovelli, M. A.

2018-04-01

Damage assessment is a fundamental step to support emergency response and recovery activities in a post-earthquake scenario. In recent years, UAVs and satellite optical imagery was applied to assess major structural damages before technicians could reach the areas affected by the earthquake. However, bad weather conditions may harm the quality of these optical assessments, thus limiting the practical applicability of these techniques. In this paper, the application of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery is investigated and a novel approach to SAR-based damage assessment is presented. Coherent Change Detection (CCD) algorithms on multiple interferometrically pre-processed SAR images of the area affected by the seismic event are exploited to automatically detect potential damages to buildings and other physical structures. As a case study, the 2016 Central Italy earthquake involving the cities of Amatrice and Accumoli was selected. The main contribution of the research outlined above is the integration of a complex process, requiring the coordination of a variety of methods and tools, into a unitary framework, which allows end-to-end application of the approach from SAR data pre-processing to result visualization in a Geographic Information System (GIS). A prototype of this pipeline was implemented, and the outcomes of this methodology were validated through an extended comparison with traditional damage assessment maps, created through photo-interpretation of high resolution aerial imagery. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is able to perform damage detection with a good level of accuracy, as most of the detected points of change are concentrated around highly damaged buildings.

Seismic Risk Assessment of Italian Seaports Using GIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartolomei, Anna; Corigliano, Mirko; Lai, Carlo G.

2008-01-01

Seaports are crucial elements in the export and import of goods and/or on the flow of travellers in the tourism industry of many industrialised nations included Italy. Experience gained from recent earthquakes (e.g. 1989 Loma Prieta in USA, 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu and 2003 Tokachi-Oki in Japan) have dramatically demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of seaport structures and the severe damage that can be caused by ground shaking. In Italy, the Department of Civil Protection has funded a research project to develop a methodology for the seismic design of new marginal wharves and assessment of existing structures at seaports located in areas of medium or high seismicity. This paper shows part of the results of this research project, currently underway, with particular reference to the seismic risk assessment through an interactive, geographically referenced database (GIS). Standard risk assessment have been carried out for the Gioia Tauro port in Calabria (Italy) using the empirical curves implemented by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS, 2004)

Seismic Risk Assessment of Italian Seaports Using GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolomei, Anna; Corigliano, Mirko; Lai, Carlo G.

2008-07-01

Seaports are crucial elements in the export and import of goods and/or on the flow of travellers in the tourism industry of many industrialised nations included Italy. Experience gained from recent earthquakes (e.g. 1989 Loma Prieta in USA, 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu and 2003 Tokachi-Oki in Japan) have dramatically demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of seaport structures and the severe damage that can be caused by ground shaking. In Italy, the Department of Civil Protection has funded a research project to develop a methodology for the seismic design of new marginal wharves and assessment of existing structures at seaports located in areas of medium or high seismicity. This paper shows part of the results of this research project, currently underway, with particular reference to the seismic risk assessment through an interactive, geographically referenced database (GIS). Standard risk assessment have been carried out for the Gioia Tauro port in Calabria (Italy) using the empirical curves implemented by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS, 2004).

Damage Assessment and Monitoring of Cultural Heritage Places in a Disaster and Post-Disaster Event - a Case Study of Syria

Science.gov (United States)

Vafadari, A.; Philip, G.; Jennings, R.

2017-08-01

In recent decades, and in response to an increased focus on disastrous events ranging from armed conflict to natural events that impact cultural heritage, there is a need for methodologies and approaches to better manage the effects of disaster on cultural heritage. This paper presents the approaches used in the development of a Historic Environment Record (HER) for Syria. It describes the requirements and methodologies used for systematic emergency recording and assessment of cultural heritage. It also presents the type of information needed to record in the aftermath of disaster to assess the scale of damage and destruction. Started as a project at Durham University, the database is now being developed as part of the EAMENA (Endangered Archaeology in the Middle East and North Africa) project. The core dataset incorporates information and data from archaeological surveys undertaken in Syria by research projects in recent decades and began life as a development of the Shirīn initiative1. The focus of this project is to provide a tool not only for the recording and inventory of sites and monuments, but also to record damage and threats, their causes, and assess their magnitude. It will also record and measure the significance in order to be able to prioritize emergency and preservation responses. The database aims to set procedures for carrying out systematic rapid condition assessment (to record damage) and risk assessment (to record threat and level of risk) of heritage places, on the basis of both on the ground and remote assessment. Given the large number of heritage properties damaged by conflict, the implementation of rapid assessment methods to quickly identify and record level of damage and condition is essential, as it will provide the evidence to support effective prioritization of efforts and resources, and decisions on the appropriate levels of intervention and methods of treatment. The predefined data entry categories, use of a data standard, and

Risk Assessment of the Main Control Room Fire Using Fire Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung Cheol

2013-01-01

KAERI is performing a fire PSA for a reference plant, Ulchin Unit 3, as part of developing the Korean site risk profile (KSRP). Fire simulations of the MCR fire were conducted using the CFAST (Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport) model and FDS (fire dynamic simulator) to improve the uncertainty in the MCR fire risk analysis. Using the fire simulation results, the MCR abandonment risk was evaluated. Level 1 PSA (probabilistic safety assessment) results of Ulchin Unit 3 using the EPRI PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) implementation guide showed that the MCR (main control room) fire was the main contributor to the core damage frequency. Recently, U. S. NRC and EPRI developed NUREG/CR-6850 to provide state-of-the-art methods, tools, and data for the conduct of a fire PSA for a commercial NPP

Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunyazova A.O.

2018-04-01

Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Post-hurricane forest damage assessment using satellite remote sensing

Science.gov (United States)

W. Wang; J.J. Qu; X. Hao; Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf

2010-01-01

This study developed a rapid assessment algorithm for post-hurricane forest damage estimation using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements. The performance of five commonly used vegetation indices as post-hurricane forest damage indicators was investigated through statistical analysis. The Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) was...

Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

2015-01-01

Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change...... adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost...... of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift...

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2017-07-01

The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Tool for Local-Scale Flood Risk Assessments in Coastal Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Kulp, S. A.; Strauss, B.

2015-12-01

Local decision makers in coastal cities require accurate, accessible, and thorough assessments of flood exposure risk within their individual municipality, in their efforts to mitigate against damage due to future sea level rise. To fill this need, we have developed Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, an interactive data toolkit which presents our sea level rise and storm surge analysis for every coastal town, city, county, and state within the USA. Using this tool, policy makers can easily zoom in on their local place of interest to receive a detailed flood risk assessment, which synthesizes a wide range of features including total population, socially vulnerable population, housing, property value, road miles, power plants, schools, hospitals, and many other critical facilities. Risk Finder can also be used to identify specific points of interest in danger of exposure at different flood levels. Additionally, this tool provides localized storm surge probabilities and sea level rise projections at tidal gauges along the coast, so that users can quickly understand the risk of flooding in their area over the coming decades.

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Risk assessment for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lyon, R.B.; Rosinger, E.L.J.

1979-01-01

The objectives of risk assessment studies for radioactive waste disposal are: to specify the features that prevent the escape of radionuclides from a deep disposal vault, to estimate how effective these features are likely to be, and to determine the potential consequences of the expected situation and conceivable but unlikely situations. The major features to be analysed include the insoluble nature of the waste form itself, the resistance of its container to corrosion or mechanical damage, the effectiveness of the massive rock barrier and the hold-up and dilution of radionuclides in the surface environment. Computer modelling is used in a technique called ''pathway analysis'' to bring together the experimental data, field data and understanding of the relevant phenomena into an assessment of the resultant effect on man and the environment. (author)

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Integrating Machine Learning into a Crowdsourced Model for Earthquake-Induced Damage Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rebbapragada, Umaa; Oommen, Thomas

2011-01-01

On January 12th, 2010, a catastrophic 7.0M earthquake devastated the country of Haiti. In the aftermath of an earthquake, it is important to rapidly assess damaged areas in order to mobilize the appropriate resources. The Haiti damage assessment effort introduced a promising model that uses crowdsourcing to map damaged areas in freely available remotely-sensed data. This paper proposes the application of machine learning methods to improve this model. Specifically, we apply work on learning from multiple, imperfect experts to the assessment of volunteer reliability, and propose the use of image segmentation to automate the detection of damaged areas. We wrap both tasks in an active learning framework in order to shift volunteer effort from mapping a full catalog of images to the generation of high-quality training data. We hypothesize that the integration of machine learning into this model improves its reliability, maintains the speed of damage assessment, and allows the model to scale to higher data volumes.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF STATIN-ASSOCIATED MUSCLE DAMAGE PREDICTORS IN PATIENTS WITH ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE

OpenAIRE

V. I. Petrov; O. N. Smuseva; Yu. V. Solovkina

2013-01-01

Aim. To assess the risk factors of statin-associated muscle damage in patient with ischemic heart disease.Material and methods. 258 patients with ischemic heart disease treated with statin were included into the study. Total plasma creatine kinase levels were measured and SLCO1B1*5 genotyping was performed. Relationship between statin therapy and adverse events was evaluated by Naranjo algorithm.Results. Patients with muscle symptoms received statins significantly longer (48.8 vs 11.9 months,...

Practical consequences of the assessment of different energy health risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.

1984-01-01

Public authorities must make decisions about energy, and the risks of alternative strategies need to be calculated including health and environmental costs. Information from various sources must be organized into a logical framework for comparing impacts. This must include the widest practicable range of health and environmental damage - public health impact of pollution, role of accidents, disease and hazardous materials in the workplace, and odds for catastrophes. It must put each part of the energy cycle into perspective - giving particular attention to uncertainties in knowledge - to convey what is known, what is uncertain, and the importance of each factor in the overall picture. This paper gives examples of the use of health-impact assessment by decision-makers: (1) comparative risk assessment of the health effects of coal and nuclear fuel cycles used in nuclear power plant siting and licensing hearings, and (2) health risks of acid deposition and other air-transported pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment for the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment. (author)

Assessment of corrosion and fatigue damage to light water reactor metal containments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinha, U.P.; Shah, V.N.; Smith, S.K.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a generic procedure for estimating aging damage, evaluating structural integrity, and identifying mitigation activities for safe operation of boiling water reactor (BWR) Mark I metal containments and ice-condenser type pressurized water reactor (PWR) cylindrical metal containments. The mechanisms of concern that can cause aging damage to these two types of containments are corrosion and fatigue. Assessment of fatigue damage to bellows is also described. Assessment of corrosion and fatigue damage described in this paper include: containment design features that are relevant to aging assessment, several corrosion and fatigue mechanisms, inspection of corrosion and fatigue damage, and mitigation of damage caused by these mechanisms. In addition, synergistic interaction between corrosion and fatigue is considered. Possible actions for mitigating aging include enhanced inspection methods, maintenance activities based on operating experience, and supplementary surveillance programs. Field experience related to aging of metal containments is reviewed. Finally, conclusions and recommendations are presented

DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING OF CULTURAL HERITAGE PLACES IN A DISASTER AND POST-DISASTER EVENT – A CASE STUDY OF SYRIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Vafadari

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In recent decades, and in response to an increased focus on disastrous events ranging from armed conflict to natural events that impact cultural heritage, there is a need for methodologies and approaches to better manage the effects of disaster on cultural heritage. This paper presents the approaches used in the development of a Historic Environment Record (HER for Syria. It describes the requirements and methodologies used for systematic emergency recording and assessment of cultural heritage. It also presents the type of information needed to record in the aftermath of disaster to assess the scale of damage and destruction. Started as a project at Durham University, the database is now being developed as part of the EAMENA (Endangered Archaeology in the Middle East and North Africa project. The core dataset incorporates information and data from archaeological surveys undertaken in Syria by research projects in recent decades and began life as a development of the Shirīn initiative1. The focus of this project is to provide a tool not only for the recording and inventory of sites and monuments, but also to record damage and threats, their causes, and assess their magnitude. It will also record and measure the significance in order to be able to prioritize emergency and preservation responses. The database aims to set procedures for carrying out systematic rapid condition assessment (to record damage and risk assessment (to record threat and level of risk of heritage places, on the basis of both on the ground and remote assessment. Given the large number of heritage properties damaged by conflict, the implementation of rapid assessment methods to quickly identify and record level of damage and condition is essential, as it will provide the evidence to support effective prioritization of efforts and resources, and decisions on the appropriate levels of intervention and methods of treatment. The predefined data entry categories, use of a data

"Fair" Mathematics in Assessing Delictual Damages

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

A related aspect of the technique of assessing damages is this one: it is .... never, within the range of my knowledge and experience, been the approach .... cannot probably occur; in truth things either happened or did not happen at all. ..... added together in such a way that the career of the plaintiff is individualised as far as.

Probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling using random forests and Bayesian networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai

2015-04-01

Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are increasingly based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with considerable uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention recently, they are hardly applied in flood damage assessments. Most of the damage models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. This presentation will show approaches for probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling on the micro- and meso-scale and discuss their potential and limitations. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Schröter, K., Kreibich, H., Vogel, K., Riggelsen, C., Scherbaum, F., Merz, B. (2014): How useful are complex flood damage models? - Water Resources Research, 50, 4, p. 3378-3395.

Risk Assessment Review Group report to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, H.W.; Budnitz, R.J.; Kouts, H.J.C.; Loewenstein, W.B.; Rowe, W.D.; von Hippel, F.; Zachariasen, F.

1978-09-01

The Risk Assessment Review Group was organized by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission on July 1, 1977, with four elements to its charter: clarify the achievements and limitations of WASH-1400, the ''Rasmussen Report''; assess the peer comments thereon, and responses to those comments; study the present state of such risk assessment methodology; and recommend to the Commission how (and whether) such methodology can be used in the regulatory and licensing process. Areas of study include: risk assessment methodologies; statistical issues; completeness; the data base; and the WASH-1400 assessment of the damage to human health from radiation after a postulated accident. Specific items discussed include: Browns Ferry; common cause failure; human factors; format and scrutability; the peer review process; earthquakes; risk perception; allegations by UCS concerning WASH-1400 treatment of quality assurance and quality control; current role of probabilistic methods in the regulatory process; acts of violence; ATWS; influence of design defects in quality assurance failures; and calculation of population doses from given releases of radionuclides

Development of the Damage Potential resulting from Avalanche Risks, Case Study Galtür (Tyrol, Austria)

Science.gov (United States)

Keiler, M.

2003-04-01

Reports on catastrophes with high damage caused by natural hazards seem to have increased in number recently. A new trend in dealing with these natural processes leads to the integration of risk into natural hazards evaluations and approaches of integral risk management. The risk resulting from natural hazards can be derived from the combination of parameters of physical processes (intensity and recurrence probability) and damage potential (probability of presence and expected damage value). Natural hazard research focuses mainly on the examination, modelling and estimation of individual geomorphological processes as well as on future developments caused by climate change. Even though damage potential has been taken into account more frequently, quantifying statements are still missing. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study presents a conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of physical presence, evaluation of buildings) and shows the development of the damage potential resulting from avalanches since 1950. The study area is the community of Galtür, Austria. 36 percent of the existing buildings are found in officially declared avalanche hazard zones. The majority of these buildings are either agricultural or accommodation facilities. Additionally, the effects of physical planning and/or technical measures on the spatial development of the potential damage are illustrated. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

Health, safety and environment risk assessment in gas pipelines by indexing method:case of Kermanshah Sanandaj oil pipeline

OpenAIRE

Y. Hamidi; I. Mohamadfam; M. Motamedzadeh

2009-01-01

Background and AimsUsing pipelines for oil products transportation involves ranges of safety, health and environmental risks, this option however, is dominant with numerous  advantages. The purpose of this study was; relative risk assessment of abovementioned risk in Kermanshah-Sanandaj Oil Pipeline.MethodsThe method used in this study was Kent Muhlbauer method in which relative risk was assessed using third-party damage, corrosion, design, incorrect operations and leak impact  factor.Results...

Post-Chelyabinsk Risk Assessment for Near Earth Objects (NEOs)

Science.gov (United States)

Boslough, M.; Harris, A. W.

2014-12-01

The widely-accepted NEO risk assessments published in the 1990s concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Even though large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population because of a power-law size distribution, the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from these low-probability, high-consequence events is large. This conclusion led to the Spaceguard survey, which has now catalogued about 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course. The survey has reduced the assessed risk from this size range by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from objects tens of meters in diameter is therefore increasing.The absolute assessed risk from airbursts caused by objects of this size is also higher for two reasons. First, they may be more frequent than previously thought because of an underestimated population. Second, they are significantly more damaging than assumed in the original assessment because (in most cases) they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions. Last year's half-megaton airburst over Chelyabinsk, Russia, appears to challenge the notion that such events are extremely rare—especially when also considering the 1908 Tunguska event along with decades of infrasound bolide data showing higher-than-expected numbers of large airbursts.We will present a new analysis of the risk based on updated estimates for the population of undiscovered NEOs, taking into account the enhanced damage potential of collisional airbursts. Merging the survey population estimates with the bolide frequency estimates suggests a population of tens-of-meters sized bodies that may be a factor of three or so greater than estimated from surveys alone. Uncertainty in the population of airburst-class NEOs remains quite large, and can only be unambiguously reduced by expanded surveys focused on objects in the tens

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Probabilistic flood damage modelling at the meso-scale

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are usually based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments. Most damage models have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we show how the model BT-FLEMO (Bagging decision Tree based Flood Loss Estimation MOdel) can be applied on the meso-scale, namely on the basis of ATKIS land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated damage to residential buildings per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight other damage models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official damage data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of damage estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation model BT-FLEMO is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64.

Impact induced damage assessment by means of Lamb wave image processing

Science.gov (United States)

Kudela, Pawel; Radzienski, Maciej; Ostachowicz, Wieslaw

2018-03-01

The aim of this research is an analysis of full wavefield Lamb wave interaction with impact-induced damage at various impact energies in order to find out the limitation of the wavenumber adaptive image filtering method. In other words, the relation between impact energy and damage detectability will be shown. A numerical model based on the time domain spectral element method is used for modeling of Lamb wave propagation and interaction with barely visible impact damage in a carbon-epoxy laminate. Numerical studies are followed by experimental research on the same material with an impact damage induced by various energy and also a Teflon insert simulating delamination. Wavenumber adaptive image filtering and signal processing are used for damage visualization and assessment for both numerical and experimental full wavefield data. It is shown that it is possible to visualize and assess the impact damage location, size and to some extent severity by using the proposed technique.

Risk assessment methodology for extreme wind and missile effects on critical facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.

1985-01-01

The TORMIS methodology has been applied to a number of probabilistic risk assessments of critical facilities in the continental United States. These analyses have centered on the estimation of tornado missile impact and damage risks to individual targets as well as to groups of targets at specific plants. A number of advancements and generalizations in the approach have recently been made. These include: (1) generalization of windfield options to include straight winds (WINMIS) and hurricanes (HURMIS); (2) generalization of the scoring to enable analysis of Boolean system expressions for damage probabilities on compound series and parallel safety trains; (3) generalization of the failure criteria to include wind pressure as well as missile impact; (4) generalization of the plant modeling capability to enable more detailed treatment of targets partially or fully enclosed by vulnerable cladding and to allow tracking of missiles inside such enclosures; and (5) incorporation of windspeed criteria for structural failure and subsequent production of potential missiles. This paper will present some of the basic theory and key results of recent TORMIS, WINMIS, and HURMIS applications. The influence of uncertainties in the estimation process and the data needed for plant-specific risk assessments will also be discussed

Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological features were extracted; including, sensor placement, derived parameters used to assess fall risk, fall risk classification method, and fall risk classification model outcomes. Results Inertial sensors were placed only on the lower back in the majority of papers (65%). One hundred and thirty distinct variables were assessed, which were categorized as position and angle (7.7%), angular velocity (11.5%), linear acceleration (20%), spatial (3.8%), temporal (23.1%), energy (3.8%), frequency (15.4%), and other (14.6%). Fallers were classified using retrospective fall history (30%), prospective fall occurrence (15%), and clinical assessment (32.5%), with 22.5% using a combination of retrospective fall occurrence and clinical assessments. Half of the studies derived models for fall risk prediction, which reached high levels of accuracy (62-100%), specificity (35-100%), and sensitivity (55-99%). Conclusions Inertial sensors are promising sensors for fall risk assessment. Future studies should identify fallers using prospective techniques and focus on determining the most promising sensor sites, in conjunction with determination of optimally predictive variables. Further research should also attempt to link predictive variables to specific fall risk factors and investigate disease populations that are at high risk of falls. PMID:23927446

Tsunami vulnerability and damage assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Atillah

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This study, a companion paper to Renou et al. (2011, focuses on the application of a GIS-based method to assess building vulnerability and damage in the event of a tsunami affecting the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco. This approach, designed within the framework of the European SCHEMA project (www.schemaproject.org is based on the combination of hazard results from numerical modelling of the worst case tsunami scenario (inundation depth based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Portugal earthquake of 1969, together with vulnerability building types derived from Earth Observation data, field surveys and GIS data. The risk is then evaluated for this highly concentrated population area characterized by the implementation of a vast project of residential and touristic buildings within the flat area of the Bouregreg Valley separating the cities of Rabat and Salé. A GIS tool is used to derive building damage maps by crossing layers of inundation levels and building vulnerability. The inferred damage maps serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes and to prepare and consider appropriate measures to prevent the induced tsunami risk.

Provisions against damage in permits of environment-related large facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, H.

1980-01-01

The author in detail covers the legal treatment of technological risks, especially the roles played by experts and those applying the law, when it comes to the application of uncertain legal terms and criteria of evaluating the principle of provision for damage. He finds that an increasingly more important role was played by the legal evaluation of risks stemming from large technical facilities, in addition to the (socio-)political assessment of the consequences of technologies. For risk assessment, engineers had a primary responsibility, but the evaluation of risk in an overall process of weighing legal assets was a responsibility of lawyers. The residual risk to be tolerated legally (without the compulsory need to make provisions for damage) was to be determined by weighing legal assets, by the principle of adequacy, and by comparative risk assessment. (HSCH) [de

Structurally integrated fiber optic damage assessment system for composite materials.

Science.gov (United States)

Measures, R M; Glossop, N D; Lymer, J; Leblanc, M; West, J; Dubois, S; Tsaw, W; Tennyson, R C

1989-07-01

Progress toward the development of a fiber optic damage assessment system for composite materials is reported. This system, based on the fracture of embedded optical fibers, has been characterized with respect to the orientation and location of the optical fibers in the composite. Together with a special treatment, these parameters have been tailored to yield a system capable of detecting the threshold of damage for various impacted Kevlar/epoxy panels. The technique has been extended to measure the growth of a damage region which could arise from either impact, manufacturing flaws, or static overloading. The mechanism of optical fiber fracture has also been investigated. In addition, the influence of embedded optical fibers on the tensile and compressive strength of the composite material has been studied. Image enhanced backlighting has been shown to be a powerful and convenient method of assessing internal damage to translucent composite materials.

Landslide susceptibility and risk assessment: specificities for road networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pellicani, Roberta; Argentiero, Ilenia; Parisi, Alessandro; Spilotro, Giuseppe

2017-04-01

hazard, which is a function of the return time, due to the lack of temporal data, was evaluated as a function of the landslide intensity (velocity and areal extent) and susceptibility. The direct consequences of instability on the roads were defined by combining exposure and vulnerability in a matrix. Exposure was evaluated in terms of amount of traffic, which was calculated along each road stretch, connecting two or more urban areas, as a function of the average of population of each centers. Vulnerability, which expresses the degree of damage, was assessed in function of the presence of criticalities along roads, which were ranked according to the severity of damages and type of performed reparation works. The consequences, combined with the hazard levels, allowed to assess the landslide risk, classified in low, medium and high levels. The risk map highlighted that about the 30% (392 km) of the examined road corridors is affected by high risk levels. The comparison between the risk map and the landslide inventory recognized along roads has also revealed that the 49.5% of landslides affects sections where the risk was evaluated high. The obtained risk classification of the roads represents a support for decision making and allows to identify the priorities for designing appropriate landslide mitigation plans.

Assessment of Forest Damage in Croatia using Landsat-8 OLI Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anita Simic Milas

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Rapid assessments of forest damage caused by natural disasters such as ice-break, wind, flooding, hurricane, or forest fires are necessary for mitigation and forest management. Forest damage directly impacts carbon uptake and biogeochemical cycles, and thus, has an impact on climate change. It intensifies erosion and flooding, and influences socio-economic well-being of population. Quantification of forest cover change represents a challenge for the scientific community as damaged areas are often in the mountainous and remote regions. Forested area in the western Croatia was considerably damaged by ice-breaking and flooding in 2014. Satellite remote sensing technology has opened up new possibilities for detecting and quantifying forest damage. Several remote sensing tools are available for rapid assessment of forest damage. These include aerial photographic interpretation, and airborne and satellite imagery. This study evaluates the capability of Landsat-8 optical data and a vegetation index for mapping forest damage in Croatia that occurred during the winter of 2014. Materials and Methods: The change detection analysis in this study was based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI difference approach, where pre- and post- event Landsat-8 images were employed in the ENVI image change workflow. The validation was done by comparing the satellite-generated change detection map with the ground truth data based on field observations and spatial data of forest management units and plans. Results: The overall damage assessment from this study suggests that the total damaged area covers 45,265.32 ha of forest. It is 19.20% less than estimated by Vuletić et al. [3] who found that 56,021.86 ha of forest were affected. Most damage was observed in the mixed, broadleaf and coniferous forest. The change errors of commission and omission were calculated to be 35.73% and 31.60%, respectively. Conclusions: Landsat-8 optical

Development of seismic damage assessment system for nuclear power plant structures in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hyun, Chang-Hun; Lee, Sung-Kyu; Choi, Kang-Ryoung; Koh, Hyun-Moo; Cho, HoHyun

2003-01-01

A seismic damage assessment system that analyses in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and the damage level of power plant structures has been developed. The system consists of three parts: a 3-D inelastic seismic analysis, a damage assessment using a damage index based on the previous 3-D analysis, and a 3-D graphic representation. PSC containment structures are modelled by finite shell elements using layered method and analysis is performed by means of time history inelastic seismic analysis method, which takes into account material nonlinearities. HHT-α, one kind of direct integration method, is adopted for the seismic analysis. Two damage indices at finite element and structural levels are applied for the seismic damage assessment. 3-D graphical representation of dynamic responses and damage index expedites procedure for evaluating the damage level. The developed system is now being installed at the Earthquake Monitoring Center of KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) to support site inspections after an earthquake occurrence, and decisions about effective emergency measures, repair and operations of the plant. (author)

Implementation of the natural resource damage assessment rule

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-11-01

Regulations have been promulgated by the Department of Interior (DOI) which provide an administrative process whereby natural resource trustees may establish the type and extent of injury and evaluate the damages to natural resources. These regulations provide an optional mechanism for Natural Resource Damage Assessments (NRDAs), with four major components. A workshop was held to develop recommendations for DOE-OR regarding implementation of the DOI NRDA regulations at the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). The attendants were divided into three working groups to consider (1) administrative/legal requirements, (2) ecological assessments, and (3) the NRDA/economic evaluation process. This report supplies an overview of the DOI NRDA regulations as well as summaries of the consensus of each of the three working groups

An approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk from natural disasters in a geographic region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zlateva, Plamena; Stoyanov, Krasimir

2009-01-01

The paper proposes an approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk of a certain geographic region on the basis of quantitative and qualitative datum about the potential natural disasters. A fuzzy logic model is designed. The type of the threats, consequences and interdependencies between infrastructure objects are taken into account. The geographic region is considered as a complex system of interconnected and mutually influencing elements. The expected damages are directly and/or indirectly connected with life quality deterioration. Keywords: Risk, Geo-ecological risk, Damages, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Natural disasters

Corrosion Assessment by Using Risk-Based Inspection Method for Petrochemical Plant - Practical Experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Song Chun; Song, Ki Hun

2009-01-01

Corrosion assessment has a number of uses but the use considered here is as a precursor to Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) planning. Systematic methods consisting of technical modules of RBI program were used to assess the effect of specific corrosion mechanism on the probability of failure in equipment of petrochemical plants. Especially in part of the damage and corrosion assessment, screening step involved evaluating the combinations of process conditions and construction materials for each equipment item in order to determine which damage mechanisms are potentially active. For general internal corrosion, either API 510 or API 570 was applied as the damage rate in the calculation to determine the remaining life and inspection frequency. In some cases, a measured rate of corrosion may not be available. The technical modules of RBI program employ default values for corrosion, typically derived from published data or from experience with similar processes, for use until inspection results are available. This paper describes the case study of corrosion and damage assessment by using RBI methodology in petrochemical plant. Specifically, this paper reports the methodology and the results of its application to the petrochemical units using the KGS-RBI TM program, developed by the Korea Gas Safety Corporation to suit Korean situation in conformity with API 581 Codes

Washington's marine oil spill compensation schedule - simplified resource damage assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geselbracht, L.; Logan, R.

1993-01-01

The Washington State Preassessment Screening and Oil Spill Compensation Schedule Rule (Chapter 173-183 Washington Administrative Code), which simplifies natural resource damage assessment for many oil spill cases, became effective in May 1992. The approach described in the rule incorporates a number of preconstructed rankings that rate environmental sensitivity and the propensity of spilled oil to cause environmental harm. The rule also provides guidance regarding how damages calculated under the schedule should be reduced to take into account actions taken by the responsible party that reduce environmental injury. To apply the compensation schedule to marine estuarine spills, the resource trustees need only collect a limited amount of information such as type of product spilled, number of gallons spilled, compensation schedule subregions the spill entered, season of greatest spill impact, percent coverage of habitats affected by the spill, and actions taken by the responsible party. The result of adding a simplified tool to the existing assortment of damage assessment approaches is that resource trustees will now be able to assess damages for most oil spill cases and shift more effort than was possible in the past to resource restoration

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Assessment of damage from reduction of expected lifespan due to cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boris Alengordovich Korobitsyn

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer

The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: lessons learned regarding passive safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.

1998-01-01

This paper summarizes the results from the EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10 -5 yr -1 . Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability

The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: lessons learned regarding passive safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, D J; Ragland, W A; Roglans, J

1998-11-01

This paper summarizes the results from the EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10{sup -6} yr{sup -1}, even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10{sup -6} yr{sup -1} and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10{sup -5} yr{sup -1}. Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability.

The EBR-II probabilistic risk assessment lessons learned regarding passive safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.

1994-01-01

This paper summarizes the results from the recently completed EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10 -5 yr -1 . Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability

A Bayesian Decision Model for Battle Damage Assessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Franzen, Daniel

1999-01-01

Battle damage assessment (BDA) is critical to success in any air campaign. However, Desert Storm highlighted numerous deficiencies in the BDA process, and operations since Desert Storm continue to point out weaknesses...

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

UAV-based urban structural damage assessment using object-based image analysis and semantic reasoning

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez Galarreta, J.; Kerle, N.; Gerke, M.

2015-06-01

Structural damage assessment is critical after disasters but remains a challenge. Many studies have explored the potential of remote sensing data, but limitations of vertical data persist. Oblique imagery has been identified as more useful, though the multi-angle imagery also adds a new dimension of complexity. This paper addresses damage assessment based on multi-perspective, overlapping, very high resolution oblique images obtained with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). 3-D point-cloud assessment for the entire building is combined with detailed object-based image analysis (OBIA) of façades and roofs. This research focuses not on automatic damage assessment, but on creating a methodology that supports the often ambiguous classification of intermediate damage levels, aiming at producing comprehensive per-building damage scores. We identify completely damaged structures in the 3-D point cloud, and for all other cases provide the OBIA-based damage indicators to be used as auxiliary information by damage analysts. The results demonstrate the usability of the 3-D point-cloud data to identify major damage features. Also the UAV-derived and OBIA-processed oblique images are shown to be a suitable basis for the identification of detailed damage features on façades and roofs. Finally, we also demonstrate the possibility of aggregating the multi-perspective damage information at building level.

Establishing indices for groundwater contamination risk assessment in the vicinity of hazardous waste landfills in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ying; Li, Jinhui; Chen, Shusheng; Diao, Weihua

2012-06-01

Groundwater contamination by leachate is the most damaging environmental impact over the entire life of a hazardous waste landfill (HWL). With the number of HWL facilities in China rapidly increasing, and considering the poor status of environmental risk management, it is imperative that effective environmental risk management methods be implemented. A risk assessment indices system for HWL groundwater contamination is here proposed, which can simplify the risk assessment procedure and make it more user-friendly. The assessment framework and indices were drawn from five aspects: source term, underground media, leachate properties, risk receptors and landfill management quality, and a risk assessment indices system consisting of 38 cardinal indicators was established. Comparison with multimedia models revealed that the proposed indices system was integrated and quantitative, that input data for it could be easily collected, and that it could be widely used for environmental risk assessment (ERA) in China. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Condition Assessment for Wastewater Pipes: Method for Assessing Cracking and Surface Damage of Concrete Pipes

OpenAIRE

Hauge, Petter

2013-01-01

The objective of the Master Thesis has been to provide an improved method for condition assessment, which will give a better correlation between Condition class and actual Condition of concrete pipes with cracking and/or surface damages. Additionally improvement of the characterization of cracking (SR) and surface (KO) damages was a sub goal.Based on the findings described in my Thesis and my Specialization Project (Hauge 2012), I recommend that the Norwegian condition assessment method based...

Natural resource damage assessment -- Trustee and defendant perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McHugh, M.; Trimmier, R. Jr.

1995-01-01

The goal of the NRD process is restoration: restoring injured resources and the services they provide to a level that will compensate the public for the losses associated with injuries. While restoration, the final step in the cleanup process, has only recently been pursued, experience dictates that it is more effective and efficient for cleanup agencies. Industry and natural resource trustees to address NRD by integrating it into the cleanup process in a cooperative and coordinated manner. Early integration reduces transaction costs and liability by: (1) enabling the collection of NRD information by field personnel already conducting RI work; (2) promoting the selection of remedial alternatives that are protective of resources; and (3) creating opportunities to build restoration directly into the remedy. The damage assessment regulations provide an objective template to guide this process. Integration thus facilitates timely restoration, thereby halting the accrual of further damages and reducing the potential for time consuming and costly litigation. Delays in settlement and restoration are more likely when trustees are not made part of the cleanup process. Particularly under CERCLA, reliance on unproven science for injury determination and unreliable economics for damage assessment results in inflated values, prolonged litigation, delayed or vacuous remedial action and high transaction costs. Under OPA, where oil spills require immediate and effective response action, cooperation between PRPs and Trustees is more likely, but even there, the post-response assessment of NRD is unlikely to be cooperative for the same reason CERCLA assessments tend not to be

POTENTIAL OF MULTI-TEMPORAL OBLIQUE AIRBORNE IMAGERY FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Vetrivel

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Quick post-disaster actions demand automated, rapid and detailed building damage assessment. Among the available technologies, post-event oblique airborne images have already shown their potential for this task. However, existing methods usually compensate the lack of pre-event information with aprioristic assumptions of building shapes and textures that can lead to uncertainties and misdetections. However, oblique images have been already captured over many cities of the world, and the exploitation of pre- and post-event data as inputs to damage assessment is readily feasible in urban areas. In this paper, we investigate the potential of multi-temporal oblique imagery for detailed damage assessment focusing on two methodologies: the first method aims at detecting severe structural damages related to geometrical deformation by combining the complementary information provided by photogrammetric point clouds and oblique images. The developed method detected 87% of damaged elements. The failed detections are due to varying noise levels within the point cloud which hindered the recognition of some structural elements. We observed, in general that the façade regions are very noisy in point clouds. To address this, we propose our second method which aims to detect damages to building façades using the oriented oblique images. The results show that the proposed methodology can effectively differentiate among the three proposed categories: collapsed/highly damaged, lower levels of damage and undamaged buildings, using a computationally light-weight approach. We describe the implementations of the above mentioned methods in detail and present the promising results achieved using multi-temporal oblique imagery over the city of L’Aquila (Italy.

Judicial aspects in risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lukes, R.

1977-01-01

Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

Stochastic output error vibration-based damage detection and assessment in structures under earthquake excitation

Science.gov (United States)

Sakellariou, J. S.; Fassois, S. D.

2006-11-01

A stochastic output error (OE) vibration-based methodology for damage detection and assessment (localization and quantification) in structures under earthquake excitation is introduced. The methodology is intended for assessing the state of a structure following potential damage occurrence by exploiting vibration signal measurements produced by low-level earthquake excitations. It is based upon (a) stochastic OE model identification, (b) statistical hypothesis testing procedures for damage detection, and (c) a geometric method (GM) for damage assessment. The methodology's advantages include the effective use of the non-stationary and limited duration earthquake excitation, the handling of stochastic uncertainties, the tackling of the damage localization and quantification subproblems, the use of "small" size, simple and partial (in both the spatial and frequency bandwidth senses) identified OE-type models, and the use of a minimal number of measured vibration signals. Its feasibility and effectiveness are assessed via Monte Carlo experiments employing a simple simulation model of a 6 storey building. It is demonstrated that damage levels of 5% and 20% reduction in a storey's stiffness characteristics may be properly detected and assessed using noise-corrupted vibration signals.

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment II. Use of point-of-departure (PoD) metrics in defining acceptable exposure limits and assessing human risk.

Science.gov (United States)

MacGregor, James T; Frötschl, Roland; White, Paul A; Crump, Kenny S; Eastmond, David A; Fukushima, Shoji; Guérard, Melanie; Hayashi, Makoto; Soeteman-Hernández, Lya G; Johnson, George E; Kasamatsu, Toshio; Levy, Dan D; Morita, Takeshi; Müller, Lutz; Schoeny, Rita; Schuler, Maik J; Thybaud, Véronique

2015-05-01

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the need for quantitative dose-response analysis of genetic toxicology data, the existence and appropriate evaluation of threshold responses, and methods to analyze exposure-response relationships and derive points of departure (PoDs) from which acceptable exposure levels could be determined. This report summarizes the QWG discussions and recommendations regarding appropriate approaches to evaluate exposure-related risks of genotoxic damage, including extrapolation below identified PoDs and across test systems and species. Recommendations include the selection of appropriate genetic endpoints and target tissues, uncertainty factors and extrapolation methods to be considered, the importance and use of information on mode of action, toxicokinetics, metabolism, and exposure biomarkers when using quantitative exposure-response data to determine acceptable exposure levels in human populations or to assess the risk associated with known or anticipated exposures. The empirical relationship between genetic damage (mutation and chromosomal aberration) and cancer in animal models was also examined. It was concluded that there is a general correlation between cancer induction and mutagenic and/or clastogenic damage for agents thought to act via a genotoxic mechanism, but that the correlation is limited due to an inadequate number of cases in which mutation and cancer can be compared at a sufficient number of doses in the same target tissues of the same species and strain exposed under directly comparable routes and experimental protocols. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Hygro thermal simulation to predict the risk of frost damage in masonry : effects of climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Aarle, M.A.P.; Schellen, H.L.; van Schijndel, A.W.M.

2015-01-01

According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) climate change will result in an increase of air temperature and rainfall intensities for the Netherlands in winter in future. In this paper we investigate the effect of the risk of frost damage to masonry. The risk of frost damage

Life assessment of aerospace structure using damage tolerance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anwar, W.; Khan, M.Z.

2007-01-01

Damage Tolerant Design plays a major role in the Aerospace Industry not only in the design of new structures and components but also their ongoing maintenance and support. Damage Tolerance Analysis (DT A) is a procedure that defines whether a crack can be sustained safely during the projected service life of the structure. Using this methodology, service life of an aerospace structure can be determined and may be extended by applying proper tooling and machining for repair. In this research the effect of damage increment on the convergence of the residual strength is investigated for a wing component of an aircraft. The stresses redistribution with damage growth is discussed. Simulation using Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) laws are performed, those results the damage scenarios to be assessed in the real structural geometry and loading environment, using Stress Intensity Factors, Critical Crack Sizes and the Residual Strength of that component. Fatigue crack growth behaviour of the component is also investigated experimentally. The fatigue experiments were performed under constant stress amplitude loadings and constant amplitude loading with single overload. It has been observed that the computed fatigue curves fit well with the experimental results. (author)

"Fair" Mathematics in Assessing Delictual Damages | Steynberg ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the ...

Nondestructive Damage Assessment of Composite Structures Based on Wavelet Analysis of Modal Curvatures: State-of-the-Art Review and Description of Wavelet-Based Damage Assessment Benchmark

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrzej Katunin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The application of composite structures as elements of machines and vehicles working under various operational conditions causes degradation and occurrence of damage. Considering that composites are often used for responsible elements, for example, parts of aircrafts and other vehicles, it is extremely important to maintain them properly and detect, localize, and identify the damage occurring during their operation in possible early stage of its development. From a great variety of nondestructive testing methods developed to date, the vibration-based methods seem to be ones of the least expensive and simultaneously effective with appropriate processing of measurement data. Over the last decades a great popularity of vibration-based structural testing has been gained by wavelet analysis due to its high sensitivity to a damage. This paper presents an overview of results of numerous researchers working in the area of vibration-based damage assessment supported by the wavelet analysis and the detailed description of the Wavelet-based Structural Damage Assessment (WavStructDamAs Benchmark, which summarizes the author’s 5-year research in this area. The benchmark covers example problems of damage identification in various composite structures with various damage types using numerous wavelet transforms and supporting tools. The benchmark is openly available and allows performing the analysis on the example problems as well as on its own problems using available analysis tools.

Ex post damage assessment: an Italian experience

Science.gov (United States)

Molinari, D.; Menoni, S.; Aronica, G. T.; Ballio, F.; Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Minucci, G.

2014-04-01

In recent years, awareness of a need for more effective disaster data collection, storage, and sharing of analyses has developed in many parts of the world. In line with this advance, Italian local authorities have expressed the need for enhanced methods and procedures for post-event damage assessment in order to obtain data that can serve numerous purposes: to create a reliable and consistent database on the basis of which damage models can be defined or validated; and to supply a comprehensive scenario of flooding impacts according to which priorities can be identified during the emergency and recovery phase, and the compensation due to citizens from insurers or local authorities can be established. This paper studies this context, and describes ongoing activities in the Umbria and Sicily regions of Italy intended to identifying new tools and procedures for flood damage data surveys and storage in the aftermath of floods. In the first part of the paper, the current procedures for data gathering in Italy are analysed. The analysis shows that the available knowledge does not enable the definition or validation of damage curves, as information is poor, fragmented, and inconsistent. A new procedure for data collection and storage is therefore proposed. The entire analysis was carried out at a local level for the residential and commercial sectors only. The objective of the next steps for the research in the short term will be (i) to extend the procedure to other types of damage, and (ii) to make the procedure operational with the Italian Civil Protection system. The long-term aim is to develop specific depth-damage curves for Italian contexts.

The tsunami probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plant (3). Outline of tsunami fragility analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mihara, Yoshinori

2012-01-01

Tsunami Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) standard was issued in February 2012 by Standard Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ). This article detailed tsunami fragility analysis, which calculated building and structure damage probability contributing core damage and consisted of five evaluation steps: (1) selection of evaluated element and damage mode, (2) selection of evaluation procedure, (3) evaluation of actual stiffness, (4) evaluation of actual response and (5) evaluation of fragility (damage probability and others). As an application example of the standard, calculation results of tsunami fragility analysis investigation by tsunami PRA subcommittee of AESJ were shown reflecting latest knowledge of damage state caused by wave force and others acted by tsunami from the 'off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake'. (T. Tanaka)

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-04-19

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-01-01

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Huang

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

Fatigue damage assessment under multi-axial non-proportional cyclic loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohta, Keshav; Gupta, Suneel K.; Jadhav, P.A.; Bhasin, V.; Vijayan, P.K.

2016-01-01

Detailed fatigue analysis is carried out for class I Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) components to rule out the fatigue failure during their design lifetime. ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel code Section III NB, has provided two schemes for fatigue assessment, one for fixed principal directions (proportional) loading and the other for varying principal directions (non-proportional) loading conditions. Recent literature on multi-axial fatigue tests has revealed lower fatigue lives under nonproportional loading conditions. In an attempt to understand the loading parameter lowering the fatigue life, a finite element based study has been carried out. Here, fatigue damage in a tube has been correlated with the applied axial to shear strain ratio and phase difference between them. The FE analysis has used Chaboche nonlinear kinematic hardening rule to model material's realistic cyclic plastic deformation behavior. The ASME alternating stress intensity (based on linear elastic FEA) and the plastic strain energy dissipation (based on elastic-plastic FEA) have been considered to assess the per cycle fatigue damage. The study has revealed that ASME criteria predicts lower alternating stress intensity (fatigue damage parameter S alt ) for some cases of non-proportional loading than that predicted for corresponding proportional loading case. However, the actual fatigue damage is higher in non-proportional loading than that in corresponding proportional loading case. Further the fatigue damage of an NPP component under realistic multi-axial cyclic loading conditions has been assessed using some popular critical plane based models vis-à-vis ASME Sec. III criteria. (author)

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

Post flooding damage assessment of earth dams and historical reservoirs using non-invasive geophysical techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Sentenac, Philippe; Benes, Vojtech; Budinsky, Vladimir; Keenan, Helen; Baron, Ron

2017-11-01

This paper describes the use of four geophysical techniques to map the structural integrity of historical earth reservoir embankments which are susceptible to natural decay with time. The four techniques that were used to assess the post flood damage were 1. A fast scanning technique using a dipole electromagnetic profile apparatus (GEM2), 2. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) in order to obtain a high resolution image of the shape of the damaged/seepage zone, 3. Self-Potential surveys were carried out to relate the detected seepage evolution and change of the water displacement inside the embankment, 4. The washed zone in the areas with piping was characterised with microgravimetry. The four geophysical techniques used were evaluated against the case studies of two reservoirs in South Bohemia, Czech Republic. A risk approach based on the Geophysical results was undertaken for the reservoir embankments. The four techniques together enabled a comprehensive non-invasive assessment whereby remedial action could be recommended where required. Conclusions were also drawn on the efficiency of the techniques to be applied for embankments with wood structures.

Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Kryvasheyeu, Yury; Chen, Haohui; Obradovich, Nick; Moro, Esteban; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; Fowler, James; Cebrian, Manuel

2016-03-01

Could social media data aid in disaster response and damage assessment? Countries face both an increasing frequency and an increasing intensity of natural disasters resulting from climate change. During such events, citizens turn to social media platforms for disaster-related communication and information. Social media improves situational awareness, facilitates dissemination of emergency information, enables early warning systems, and helps coordinate relief efforts. In addition, the spatiotemporal distribution of disaster-related messages helps with the real-time monitoring and assessment of the disaster itself. We present a multiscale analysis of Twitter activity before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We examine the online response of 50 metropolitan areas of the United States and find a strong relationship between proximity to Sandy's path and hurricane-related social media activity. We show that real and perceived threats, together with physical disaster effects, are directly observable through the intensity and composition of Twitter's message stream. We demonstrate that per-capita Twitter activity strongly correlates with the per-capita economic damage inflicted by the hurricane. We verify our findings for a wide range of disasters and suggest that massive online social networks can be used for rapid assessment of damage caused by a large-scale disaster.

Assessment of Damage and Adaptation Strategies for Structures and Infrastructure from Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise for a Coastal Community in Rhode Island, United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Small

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluation of inundation, erosion, and wave damage for a coastal community in Rhode Island, USA. A methodology called the Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI was used that incorporates levels of inundation including sea level rise, wave heights using STWAVE, and detailed information about individual structures from an E911 database. This information was input into damage functions developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers following Hurricane Sandy. Damage from erosion was evaluated separately from local published erosion rates. Using CERI, two different adaptation strategies were evaluated that included a combination of dune restoration, protective berms, and a tide gate. A total of 151 out of 708 structures were estimated to be protected from inundation and wave action by the combined measures. More importantly, the use of CERI allowed for the assessment of the impact of different adaptation strategies on both individual structures and an entire community in a Geographical Information Systems (GIS environment. This tool shows promise for use by coastal managers to assess damage and mitigate risk to coastal communities.

Oxidative damage markers are significantly associated with the carotid artery intima-media thickness after controlling for conventional risk factors of atherosclerosis in men.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin-Ha Yoon

Full Text Available This study aimed to assess the association between oxidative damage markers and carotid artery intima-media thickness (CIMT after controlling for conventional risk factors of atherosclerosis in multiple logistic regression models.Fifty-one case male participants (CIMT ≥ 0.9 mm were enrolled during their visits to Korean Genomic Rural Cohort Study of Wonju centers between May 1 and August 31, 2011, along with 51 control participants (CIMT < 0.9 mm selected using frequency matching by age group. The levels of oxidative damage markers, 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyquuanosine (8-OHdG, malondialdehyde (MDA, and 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α (Isoprostane, were measured. Conditional logistic regression models were used to evaluate relative relationships between the oxidative damage markers and the risk of high CIMT.The markers of oxidative lipid (Isoprostane and MDA and DNA (8-OHdG damage were associated with CIMT after controlling for the conventional risk factors, including age, low density lipoprotein, body mass index, smoking history, alcohol consumption, and metabolic syndrome (ORs [95% CI] for Isoprostane: 3rd tertile, 8.47 [2.59-27.67]; for MDA: 3rd tertile, 8.47 [2.59-27.67]; for 8-OHdG: 3rd tertile, 5.58 [1.79-17.33]. When all the oxidative damage markers were incorporated in the same logistic regression model, only Isoprostane was significantly related to CIMT (OR [95% CI]: 4.22 [1.31-13.53] in 2nd tertile and 14.21 [3.34-60.56] in 3rd tertile.In this nested case-control study, the oxidative damage markers of lipid and DNA were associated with CIMT even after controlling for the conventional risk factors of cardiovascular diseases.

An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Åström, Helena Lisa Alexandra; Friis Hansen, P.; Garrè, Luca

2014-01-01

Urban flooding introduces significant risk to society. Non-stationarity leads to increased uncertainty and this is challenging to include in actual decision-making. The primary objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment and decision support framework for pluvial urban flood risk under...... non-stationary conditions using an influence diagram (ID) which is a Bayesian network (BN) extended with decision and utility nodes. Non-stationarity is considered to be the influence of climate change where extreme precipitation patterns change over time. The overall risk is quantified in monetary...... terms expressed as expected annual damage. The network is dynamic in as much as it assesses risk at different points in time. The framework provides means for decision-makers to assess how different decisions on flood adaptation affect the risk now and in the future. The result from the ID was extended...

Non-contact hematoma damage and healing assessment using reflectance photoplethysmographic imaging

Science.gov (United States)

Amelard, Robert; Pfisterer, Kaylen J.; Clausi, David A.; Wong, Alexander

2016-03-01

Impact trauma may cause a hematoma, which is the leakage of venous blood into surrounding tissues. Large hematomas can be dangerous as they may inhibit local blood ow. Hematomas are often diagnosed visually, which may be problematic if the hematoma leaks deeper than the visible penetration depth. Furthermore, vascular wound healing is often monitored at home without the aid of a clinician. We therefore investigated the use of near infrared (NIR) re ectance photoplethysmographic imaging (PPGI) to assess vascular damage resulting from a hematoma, and monitor the healing process. In this case study, the participant experienced internal vascular damage in the form of a hematoma. Using a PPGI system with dual-mode temporally coded illumination for ambient-agnostic data acquisition and mounted optical elements, the tissue was illuminated with a spatially uniform irradiance pattern of 850 nm wavelength light for increased tissue penetration and high oxy-to-deoxyhemoglobin absorption ratio. Initial and follow-up PPGI data collection was performed to assess vascular damage and healing. The tissue PPGI sequences were spectrally analyzed, producing spectral maps of the tissue area. Experimental results show that spatial differences in spectral information can be observed around the damaged area. In particular, the damaged site exhibited lower pulsatility than the surrounding healthy tissue. This pulsatility was largely restored in the follow-up data, suggesting that the tissue had undergone vascular healing. These results indicate that hematomas can be assessed and monitored in a non-contact visual manner, and suggests that PPGI can be used for tissue health assessment, with potential extensions to peripheral vascular disease.

Cancer risk in humans predicted by increased levels of chromosomal aberrations in lymphocytes: Nordic study group on the health risk of chromosome damage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hagmar, L; Brøgger, A; Hansteen, I L

1994-01-01

Cytogenetic assays in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL) have been used extensively to survey the exposure of humans to genotoxic agents. The conceptual basis for this has been the hypothesis that the extent of genetic damage in PBL reflects critical events for carcinogenic processes in target...... tissues. Until now, no follow-up studies have been performed to assess the predictive value of these methods for subsequent cancer risk. In an ongoing Nordic cohort study of cancer incidence, 3182 subjects were examined between 1970 and 1988 for chromosomal aberrations (CA), sister chromatid exchange.......0009) in CA strata with regard to subsequent cancer risk. The point estimates of the standardized incidence ratio in the three CA strata were 0.9, 0.7, and 2.1, respectively. Thus, an increased level of chromosome breakage appears to be a relevant biomarker of future cancer risk....

Blending satellite data and RADAR tool for rapid flood damage assessment in Agriculture: A case study in Sri Lanka

Science.gov (United States)

Amarnath, Giriraj; Inada, Yoshiaki; Inoue, Ryosuke; Alahacoon, Niranga; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2014-05-01

During the catastrophic flooding it is critically important to estimate losses as it is essential for facilitating good decision making at the district, province and national levels of government and to appraise aid agencies for necessary assistance. Flood loss estimates can also be used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of alternative approaches to strengthening flood control measures. In the case of Sri Lanka there were limited knowledge and application system exist for carrying out rapid damage assessment for Agriculture in Sri Lanka. FAO has developed the tool "Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine" (RADAR) based on theoretical approach that uses simple tools for assessing the impact on agriculture of a disastrous event. There are two knowledge bases that contain information needed for calculation of the value loss or damage. The procedure of rapid impact assessment implies the use of knowledge-bases, database and GIS. In this study, the user friendly application of RADAR system has been developed. Three components were considered including agriculture, livestock and farmers asset to estimate the losses. The application will allow estimating flood damage at various scales and this being tested at district level and specific example for the 2011 floods in Sri Lanka. In order to understand flood inundation cycle, time-series optical MODIS satellite data (2000-2011) and microwave ALOS PALSAR (2006-2011) were used to derive annual flood extent, flood duration and recurrent areas to identify flood risk and impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture. This study demonstrates how RADAR & satellite-based flood products can be effectively used for rapid damage assessment and managing the floods.

New concepts in risk assessment for patients with radiological treatment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tautz, M.; Brandt, G.A.

1986-01-01

In radiation risk assessment it must be differentiated between somatic and genetic effect on the one hand as well as between stochastic and non-stochastic effect on the other. According to definitions of the ICRP report 26 the limit for the dose equivalent of all tissues prevents non-stochastic radiation effects. With stochastic radiation effects probably exist no threshold doses; therefore the ALARA principle must be applied concerning radiation protection. The individual risk by stochastic radiation effects in its linear, linear-quadratic and quadratic extrapolations, respectively, is discussed in detail. The effective stochastic dose equivalent (H/sub eff/) as well as collective dose and collective damage are outlined

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Improved airfield damage assessment System (IADAS) capstone

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-01

that the Air Force Civil Engineer career field is prepared for the future of expeditionary warfare by integrating the latest technology into TTPs...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA SYSTEMS ENGINEERING CAPSTONE PROJECT REPORT Approved for public release...alternatives for improving the timeliness of airfield damage assessment. The systems engineering methods used included a morphological box and Pugh matrix

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

Science.gov (United States)

Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

2016-12-01

Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the

"Fair" mathematics in assessing delictual damages

OpenAIRE

Steynberg, L

2011-01-01

In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the actuary is to guide the court in the calculations to be made. Relying on its wide judicial discretion the court will have the final say regarding the correct...

Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

1994-11-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

Oil spill risk assessment in maritime transportation networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yudhbir, L.; Iakovou, E.

2005-01-01

Commercial shippers and regulatory agencies face the challenge of evaluating the merits of various alternative policies for the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products. This paper presented a new risk estimation and assignment methodology that assesses the risk costs for the bodies of water where shipping lanes exist. The methodology is based on historical spills and uses causal data to estimate risk cost between 2 points of reference for numerous products transported by a variety of vessels. In response to public concerns regarding the environmental impacts of accidental spills from tanker ships, laws have been imposed on companies for all costs relating to environmental damage. This measure has prompted the oil industry to take greater responsibility, but a better understanding of tanker re-routing on environmental sensitive areas is needed in order to implement detailed emergency response plans and greater safety precautions. This methodology addressed the need for an efficient maritime transportation system that provides routing for various vessels carrying different petroleum products. The risk estimation methodology successfully modeled a multi-objective, multi-commodity routing problem. 23 refs., 3 figs

Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

Science.gov (United States)

González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

2012-04-01

Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world. Several works have attempted to study these phenomena in order to understand their origin, causes, evolution, consequences, and magnitude of their damages, to finally propose mechanisms to protect coastal societies. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce risk on coastal areas. This work -Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador-, funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, examines the state of the art and presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risk of tsunamis at any coastal area worldwide and applying it to the coast of El Salvador. The conceptual framework is based on the definition of Risk as the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from a given hazard to a given element at danger or peril, over a specified time period (European Commission, Schneiderbauer et al., 2004). The HAZARD assessment (Phase I of the project) is based on propagation models for earthquake-generated tsunamis, developed through the characterization of tsunamigenic sources -sismotectonic faults- and other dynamics under study -tsunami waves, sea level, etc.-. The study area is located in a high seismic activity area and has been hit by 11 tsunamis between 1859 and 1997, nine of them recorded in the twentieth century and all generated by earthquakes. Simulations of historical and potential tsunamis with greater or lesser affection to the country's coast have been performed, including distant sources, intermediate and close. Deterministic analyses of the threats under study -coastal flooding- have been carried out, resulting in different hazard maps (maximum wave height elevation, maximum water depth, minimum tsunami

A Flood Risk Assessment Model for Companies and Criteria for Governmental Decision-Making to Minimize Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jieun Ryu

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Flood risks in the industrial sector and economic damages are increasing because of climate change. In addition to changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change; factors that increase flood damage include infrastructure deterioration and lack of storage facilities. Therefore; it is necessary for companies and the government to actively establish flood management policies. However; no evaluation method is currently available to determine which items should be invested in first by small and medium-sized enterprises that have limited finances. Because the government should make comprehensive and fair decisions; the purpose of this study is to propose priority investment risk items and an assessment method to decide which companies should be invested in first in flood risk management due to climate change. The multispatial scale of the method takes both the location and characteristics of the company into account. Future climate change scenarios were used to evaluate the changing patterns of flood risks. We developed the relative Flood Risk Assessment for Company (FRAC model methodology to support the government’s policymaking. This method was applied to four companies belonging to four different industries and three risk items were derived that are likely to harm the company owing to flooding.

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California

Science.gov (United States)

Stock, Greg M.; Luco, Nicolas; Collins, Brian D.; Harp, Edwin L.; Reichenbach, Paola; Frankel, Kurt L.

2014-01-01

Rock falls are common in Yosemite Valley, California, posing substantial hazard and risk to the approximately four million annual visitors to Yosemite National Park. Rock falls in Yosemite Valley over the past few decades have damaged structures and caused injuries within developed regions located on or adjacent to talus slopes highlighting the need for additional investigations into rock-fall hazard and risk. This assessment builds upon previous investigations of rock-fall hazard and risk in Yosemite Valley and focuses on hazard and risk to structures posed by relatively frequent fragmental-type rock falls as large as approximately 100,000 (cubic meters) in volume.

An assessment of the low seismic risk of the inherently safe sodium advanced fast reactor (SAFR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rutherford, P.D.

1988-01-01

A recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the sodium advanced fast reactor (SAFR) demonstrated the inherently low risk of advanced liquid-metal, pool-type fast reactors with inherent safety systems. As a result, it was recognized that external events, especially seismic events, may not only be a major contributor to risk (as shown in several LWR PRAs) but also may completely dominate the risk. Accordingly, a seismic risk assessment has been completed for SAFR, which resulted in a core damage frequency of 2 x 10 -7 /year and a large release frequency of 4 x 10 -9 /year. This paper reports that public health risk in terms of early fatality risk and latent fatality risk were also several orders of magnitude below the NRC safety goals and below recent LWR risks reported in NUREB/CR1150

Myocardial damage in successful vessel coronary angioplasty as assessed by creatinine kinase and its myocardium band isoenzyme levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abbas, S.; Samor, N.A.; Kayani, A.M.

2008-01-01

To determine the frequency of myocardial damage in elective, successful, single vessel percutaneous coronary angioplasty by assessing myocardial band (MB), creatinine kinase levels and to find out the association of common modifiable risk factors with myocardial damage in patients undergoing single vessel coronary angioplasty. Fifty patients undergoing elective and successful single vessel percutaneous coronary angioplasty were evaluated with creatinine kinase and creatinine kinase MB levels before and after 8 hours and 1st day following coronary angioplasty. Studied variables included the length of stent deployed, maximum deployment pressure and total balloon inflation time, apart from hypertension, cholesterol level, smoking and diabetes mellitus. Out of 50 patients, 9 had raised creatinine kinase at 8 hours (18%) and 10 had raised creatinine kinase (20%) on 1st day following coronary angioplasty, 7 (14%) patients and 8 (16%) patients had raised creatinine kinase MB levels at 8 hours and 1st day following coronary angioplasty respectively. The rise of either was equal to or more than 3 times the normal limits. Modifiable risk factors, significantly associated with myocardial damage, were diabetes mellitus (p=0.006) and LDL levels (p=0.009) in patients undergoing single vessel coronary angioplasty. Successful elective, uncomplicated, single vessel coronary angioplasty resulted in some myocardial damage evident by mild rise in cardiac enzymes but rise of creatinine kinase MB above 3 times of normal, which signifies percutaneous coronary angioplasty-related myocardial infarction, was not seen. There was a significant association between diabetes mellitus, LDL levels and myocardial damage in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty but no significant association was found between hypertension, smoking and myocardial damage. (author)

Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Humer, Günter; Reithofer, Andreas

2016-04-01

Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria Considering the increase in flash flood events causing massive damage during the last years in urban but also rural areas [1-4], the requirement for hydrodynamic calculation of flash flood prone areas and possible countermeasures has arisen to many municipalities and local governments. Besides the German based URBAS project [1], also the EU-funded FP7 research project "SWITCH-ON" [5] addresses the damage risk caused by flash floods in the sub-project "FFRM" (Flash Flood Risk Map Upper Austria) by calculating damage risk for buildings and vulnerable infrastructure like schools and hospitals caused by flash-flood driven inundation. While danger zones in riverine flooding are established as an integral part of spatial planning, flash floods caused by overland runoff from extreme rain events have been for long an underrated safety hazard not only for buildings and infrastructure, but man and animals as well. Based on the widespread 2D-model "hydro_as-2D", an extension was developed, which calculates the runoff formation from a spatially and temporally variable precipitation and determines two dimensionally the land surface area runoff and its concentration. The conception of the model is to preprocess the precipitation data and calculate the effective runoff-volume for a short time step of e.g. five minutes. This volume is applied to the nodes of the 2D-model and the calculation of the hydrodynamic model is started. At the end of each time step, the model run is stopped, the preprocessing step is repeated and the hydraulic model calculation is continued. In view of the later use for the whole of Upper Austria (12.000 km²) a model grid of 25x25 m² was established using digital elevation data. Model parameters could be estimated for the small catchment of river Ach, which was hit by an intense rain event with up to 109 mm per hour

Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

1999-11-01

For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Geologic Sequestration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lepinski, James

2013-09-30

A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO{sub 2} capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and the potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments

Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2014-09-01

Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

Environmental damage schedules: community judgments of importance and assessments of losses

Science.gov (United States)

Ratana Chuenpagdee; Jack L. Knetsch; Thomas C. Brown

2001-01-01

Available methods of valuing environmental changes are often limited in their applicability to current issues such as damage assessment and implementing regulatory controls, or may otherwise not provide reliable readings of community preferences. An alternative is to base decisions on predetermined fixed schedules of sanctions, restrictions, damage awards, and other...

Establishing indices for groundwater contamination risk assessment in the vicinity of hazardous waste landfills in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Ying; Li Jinhui; Chen Shusheng; Diao Weihua

2012-01-01

Groundwater contamination by leachate is the most damaging environmental impact over the entire life of a hazardous waste landfill (HWL). With the number of HWL facilities in China rapidly increasing, and considering the poor status of environmental risk management, it is imperative that effective environmental risk management methods be implemented. A risk assessment indices system for HWL groundwater contamination is here proposed, which can simplify the risk assessment procedure and make it more user-friendly. The assessment framework and indices were drawn from five aspects: source term, underground media, leachate properties, risk receptors and landfill management quality, and a risk assessment indices system consisting of 38 cardinal indicators was established. Comparison with multimedia models revealed that the proposed indices system was integrated and quantitative, that input data for it could be easily collected, and that it could be widely used for environmental risk assessment (ERA) in China. - Highlights: ► No comprehensive environmental risk assessment method for hazardous waste management is proposed in China. ► An assessment indices system is established for groundwater contamination in the vicinity of hazardous waste landfill. ► All indicators are quantitative and applicable in China. - Capsule: This research identified critical indices and established a system for environmental risk assessment for groundwater contamination in the vicinity of HWLs in China.

An Integrated Risk Index Model Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic for Underground Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Fayaz

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Available space in congested cities is getting scarce due to growing urbanization in the recent past. The utilization of underground space is considered as a solution to the limited space in smart cities. The numbers of underground facilities are growing day by day in the developing world. Typical underground facilities include the transit subway, parking lots, electric lines, water supply and sewer lines. The likelihood of the occurrence of accidents due to underground facilities is a random phenomenon. To avoid any accidental loss, a risk assessment method is required to conduct the continuous risk assessment and report any abnormality before it happens. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical fuzzy inference based model for under-ground risk assessment. The proposed hierarchical fuzzy inference architecture reduces the total number of rules from the rule base. Rule reduction is important because the curse of dimensionality damages the transparency and interpretation as it is very tough to understand and justify hundreds or thousands of fuzzy rules. The computation time also increases as rules increase. The proposed model takes 175 rules having eight input parameters to compute the risk index, and the conventional fuzzy logic requires 390,625 rules, having the same number of input parameters to compute risk index. Hence, the proposed model significantly reduces the curse of dimensionality. Rule design for fuzzy logic is also a tedious task. In this paper, we have also introduced new rule schemes, namely maximum rule-based and average rule-based; both schemes can be used interchangeably according to the logic needed for rule design. The experimental results show that the proposed method is a virtuous choice for risk index calculation where the numbers of variables are greater.

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

An approach to incorporate risks into a product's life-cycle assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pirhonen, P.

1995-01-01

Life-cycle assessment is usually based on regular discharges that occur at a more or less constant rate. Nevertheless, the more factors that are taken into account in the LCA the better picture it gives on the environmental aspects of a product. In this study an approach to incorporate accidental releases into a products' life-cycle assessment was developed. In this approach accidental releases are divided into two categories. The first category consists of those unplanned releases which occur with a predicted level and frequency. Due to the high frequency and small release size at a time, these accidental releases can be compared to continuous emissions. Their global impacts are studied in this approach. Accidental releases of the second category are sudden, unplanned releases caused by exceptional situations, e.g. technical failure, action error or disturbances in process conditions. These releases have a singular character and local impacts are typical of them. As far as the accidental releases of the second category are concerned, the approach introduced in this study results in a risk value for every stage of a life-cycle, the sum of which is a risk value for the whole life-cycle. Risk value is based on occurrence frequencies of incidents and potential environmental damage caused by releases. Risk value illustrates the level of potential damage caused by accidental releases related to the system under study and is meant to be used for comparison of these levels of two different products. It can also be used to compare the risk levels of different stages of the life-cycle. An approach was illustrated using petrol as an example product. The whole life-cycle of petrol from crude oil production to the consumption of petrol was studied

Risk-informed design of IRIS using a level-1 probabilistic risk assessment from its conceptual design phase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mizuno, Yuko; Ninokata, Hisashi; Finnicum, David J.

2005-01-01

In this study, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for the International Reactor Innovative and Secure (IRIS) has been generated to address two key areas as a part of the effort for the pre-application licensing of the IRIS design. First, the IRIS PRA is supporting the evaluation of IRIS design by providing design insights as well as a solid risk basis for the pre-licensing evaluation of the IRIS design. Second, the current PRA task is beginning the preparation of the more complete PRA analyses and documentation that will be required for Design Certification. The initial IRIS PRA is an at-power, Level-1 PRA for internal events that focuses on the evaluation of the IRIS design features to support the risk-informed design of IRIS by application of the PRA insights and the risk information to the design. To accomplish the evaluation, a reasonably complete Level-1 PRA model has been developed. The use of PRA in the early stages of the design has allowed a selection of design and performance features and an optimization of the design of several systems to reduce the potential for events that could lead to core damage via both enhanced prevention and mitigation of challenges. As a result, the total core damage frequency for internal events for the IRIS design has been calculated as 1.2x10 -8 per year

Risk assessment in gas and oil pipelines based on the fuzzy Bow-tie technique

OpenAIRE

P. Heyrani; A. Baghaei

2016-01-01

Introduction: Nowadays, gas and oil account for 60 percent of world energy resources. Transporting crude oil and its products are accomplished through a number of ways among which pipelines are of the utmost significance. Considering the extent of pipelines in installation and residential areas and also high potential for damage, the safety of these pipes and application of risk management principles have undeniable importance. Bow-tie risk assessment method is one of the ways to determine sa...

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

Risks and benefits of the interventions aimed at minimizing nuclear damage in the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rossiello, L.A.; Failla, L.

1997-01-01

The damages that the absorption of ionizing radiation (i.r.) can cause to humans may be classified as 1) nonstochastic (somatic or deterministic) or 2) stochastic (probabilistic) , which result, for example, from high doses of i.r. absorbed after a serious nuclear accident. Though the Chernobyl case involved both kinds of damage, this paper deals only with stochastic damage risk, and confine our considerations to individuals who were directly Affected and received high i.r. doses. The purpose of this paper is to provide elements on which to base future decisions on the evacuation and return of populations affected by serious nuclear accidents. Unlike the abundant literature on the subject, and as a necessary complement thereto within the bounds of a strict synthesis, to identify the most significant parameters applicable to single individuals rather than to the population at large, and referring solely to risks of stochastic damage

Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

Science.gov (United States)

Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

Application of Remote Sensing in Building Damages Assessment after Moderate and Strong Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Y.; Zhang, J.; Dou, A.

2003-04-01

- Earthquake is a main natural disaster in modern society. However, we still cannot predict the time and place of its occurrence accurately. Then it is of much importance to survey the damages information when an earthquake occurs, which can help us to mitigate losses and implement fast damage evaluation. In this paper, we use remote sensing techniques for our purposes. Remotely sensed satellite images often view a large scale of land at a time. There are several kinds of satellite images, which of different spatial and spectral resolutions. Landsat-4/5 TM sensor can view ground at 30m resolution, while Landsat-7 ETM Plus has a resolution of 15m in panchromatic waveband. SPOT satellite can provide images with higher resolutions. Those images obtained pre- and post-earthquake can help us greatly in identifying damages of moderate and large-size buildings. In this paper, we bring forward a method to implement quick damages assessment by analyzing both pre- and post-earthquake satellite images. First, those images are geographically registered together with low RMS (Root Mean Square) error. Then, we clip out residential areas by overlaying images with existing vector layers through Geographic Information System (GIS) software. We present a new change detection algorithm to quantitatively identify damages degree. An empirical or semi-empirical model is then established by analyzing the real damage degree and changes of pixel values of the same ground objects. Experimental result shows that there is a good linear relationship between changes of pixel values and ground damages, which proves the potentials of remote sensing in post-quake fast damage assessment. Keywords: Damages Assessment, Earthquake Hazard, Remote Sensing

Estimating young Australian adults' risk of hearing damage from selected leisure activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Elizabeth; Williams, Warwick; Gilliver, Megan

2013-01-01

Several previous studies have attempted to estimate the risk of noise-induced hearing loss from loud leisure noise. Some of these studies may have overestimated the risk because they used noise estimates taken from the higher end of reported levels. The aim of the present study was to provide a realistic estimate of the number of young Australian adults who may be at risk of hearing damage and eventual hearing loss from leisure-noise exposure. Average noise levels at five high-noise leisure activities, (1) nightclubs; (2) pubs, bars, and registered clubs; (3) fitness classes; (4) live sporting events; (5) concerts and live music venues, were calculated using 108 measurements taken from a large database of leisure noise measurements. In addition, an online survey was administered to a convenience sample of 1000 young adults aged 18 to 35 years, who reported the time spent at these leisure activities and the frequency with which they undertook the activities. They also answered questions about tinnitus and their perceived risk of hearing damage. Although the survey data cannot be considered representative of the population of young Australian adults, it was weighted to this population in respect of age, gender, education, and location. The survey data and the average noise levels were used to estimate each individual's annual noise exposure, and in turn, estimate those at risk of hearing damage from leisure-noise exposure. For the majority of participants (n = 868), the accumulated leisure noise level was within the acceptable workplace limit. However, 132 participants or 14.1% (population weighted) were exposed to an annual noise dose greater than the acceptable workplace noise limit. By far, the main source of high-risk leisure noise was from nightclubs. Those with more leisure-noise exposure experienced more tinnitus and perceived themselves to be more at risk than those with lower noise exposures. It is recommended that nightclub operators reduce noise levels

Status of the TMI-2 core: a review of damage assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croucher, D.W.

1981-01-01

Assessments of the damage within the core of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 reactor, performed by reconstructing the transient thermal-hydraulic sequence of events, estimating the amount of hydrogen generation, and evaluating the amount of fission products released, are reviewed and summarized. Minimum and maximum bounds of damage to the core are identified

Damage assessment in multilayered MEMS structures under thermal fatigue

Science.gov (United States)

Maligno, A. R.; Whalley, D. C.; Silberschmidt, V. V.

2011-07-01

This paper reports on the application of a Physics of Failure (PoF) methodology to assessing the reliability of a micro electro mechanical system (MEMS). Numerical simulations, based on the finite element method (FEM) using a sub-domain approach was used to examine the damage onset due to temperature variations (e.g. yielding of metals which may lead to thermal fatigue). In this work remeshing techniques were employed in order to develop a damage tolerance approach based on the assumption that initial flaws exist in the multi-layered.

A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

2016-08-01

Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

How many holes is too many? A prototype tool for estimating mosquito entry risk into damaged bed nets.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutcliffe, James; Ji, Xin; Yin, Shaoman

2017-08-01

Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) have played an integral role in malaria reduction but how insecticide depletion and accumulating physical damage affect ITN performance is poorly understood. More accurate methods are needed to assess damage to bed nets so that they can be designed, deployed and replaced optimally. Video recordings of female Anopheles gambiae in near approach (1-½ cm) to occupied untreated rectangular bed nets in a laboratory study were used to quantify the amount of mosquito activity (appearances over time) around different parts of the net, the per-appearance probability of a mosquito coming close to holes of different sizes (hole encounter) and the per-encounter probability of mosquitoes passing through holes of different sizes (hole passage). Appearance frequency on different parts of the net reflected previously reported patterns: the area of the net under greatest mosquito pressure was the roof, followed by the bottom 30 cm of the sides, followed by the 30 cm area immediately above this, followed by the upper two-thirds of the sides. The ratio of activity in these areas was (respectively) 250:33:5:1. Per-appearance probability of hole encounter on all parts of the net was strongly predicted by a factor combining hole perimeter and area. Per-encounter probability of hole passage, in turn, was strongly predicted by hole width. For a given width, there was a 20% greater risk of passage through holes on the roof than holes on the sides. Appearance, encounter and passage predictors correspond to various mosquito behaviours that have previously been described and are combined into a prototype mosquito entry risk tool that predicts mosquito entry rates for nets with various amounts of damage. Scenarios that use the entry risk tool to test the recommendations of the WHOPES proportionate hole index (pHI) suggest that the pHI hole size categories and failure to account for hole location likely sometimes lead to incorrect conclusions about net

Human factors questionnaire as a tool for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Grecco, Claudio H.S.; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Mol, Antonio C.A.; Oliveira, Mauro V.; Augusto, Silas C.

2009-01-01

The human factors engineering (HFE) as a discipline, and as a process, seeks to discover and to apply knowledge about human capabilities and limitations to system and equipment design, ensuring that the system design, human tasks and work environment are compatible with the sensory, perceptual, cognitive and physical attributes of the personnel who operates systems and equipment. Risk significance considers the magnitude of the consequences (loss of life, material damage, environmental degradation) and the frequency of occurrence of a particular adverse event. The questionnaire design was based on the following definitions: the score and the classification of the nuclear safety risk. The principal benefit of applying an approach based on the risk significance in the development of the questionnaire is to ensure the identification and evaluation of the features of the projects, related to human factors, which affect the nuclear safety risk, the human actions and the safety of the nuclear plant systems. The human factors questionnaire developed in this study will provide valuable support for risk assessment, making possible the identification of design problems that can influence the evaluation of the nuclear safety risk. (author)

76 FR 63628 - Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR)

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-13

...] Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) AGENCY: Federal... Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR). DATES: Comments must be received by November 14, 2011... of the draft Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) on...

Assessing the impacts of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kimlin, Michael G.; Guo, Yuming

2012-01-01

Background: Ultraviolet radiation exposure during an individuals' lifetime is a known risk factor for the development of skin cancer. However, less evidence is available on assessing the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Objectives: This study aims to assess the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive measure of exposure. Methods: We recruited 180 participants (73 males, 107 females) aged 18–83 years. Digital imaging of skin hyperpigmentation (skin damage) and skin wrinkling (skin aging) on the facial region was measured. Lifetime sun exposure (presented as hours) was calculated from the participants' age multiplied by the estimated annual time outdoors for each year of life. We analyzed the effects of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging. We adjust for the influence of age, sex, occupation, history of skin cancer, eye color, hair color, and skin color. Results: There were non-linear relationships between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Younger participant's skin is much more sensitive to sun exposure than those who were over 50 years of age. As such, there were negative interactions between lifetime sun exposure and age. Age had linear effects on skin damage and skin aging. Conclusion: The data presented showed that self reported lifetime sun exposure was positively associated with skin damage and skin aging, in particular, the younger people. Future health promotion for sun exposure needs to pay attention to this group for skin cancer prevention messaging. - Highlights: ► This is the first study finding the non-linear relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. ► This study finds there is negative interaction between lifetime sun exposure and age for skin damage and aging. ► This study suggests that future health promotion for sun exposure needs to pay attention to youth group for skin cancer

Assessing the impacts of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kimlin, Michael G., E-mail: m.kimlin@qut.edu.au; Guo, Yuming, E-mail: guoyuming@yahoo.cn

2012-05-15

Background: Ultraviolet radiation exposure during an individuals' lifetime is a known risk factor for the development of skin cancer. However, less evidence is available on assessing the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Objectives: This study aims to assess the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive measure of exposure. Methods: We recruited 180 participants (73 males, 107 females) aged 18-83 years. Digital imaging of skin hyperpigmentation (skin damage) and skin wrinkling (skin aging) on the facial region was measured. Lifetime sun exposure (presented as hours) was calculated from the participants' age multiplied by the estimated annual time outdoors for each year of life. We analyzed the effects of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging. We adjust for the influence of age, sex, occupation, history of skin cancer, eye color, hair color, and skin color. Results: There were non-linear relationships between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Younger participant's skin is much more sensitive to sun exposure than those who were over 50 years of age. As such, there were negative interactions between lifetime sun exposure and age. Age had linear effects on skin damage and skin aging. Conclusion: The data presented showed that self reported lifetime sun exposure was positively associated with skin damage and skin aging, in particular, the younger people. Future health promotion for sun exposure needs to pay attention to this group for skin cancer prevention messaging. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This is the first study finding the non-linear relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This study finds there is negative interaction between lifetime sun exposure and age for skin damage and aging. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This study suggests that future

Lessons learned from first generation nuclear plant probabalistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1984-01-01

The paper by Garrick summarizes the state-of-the-art in what are perhaps the most archetypical probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Because of its unique regulatory environment and because of the high levels of perceived (not necessarily actual) risk, the nuclear industry more than any other has been concerned with quantitative risk analysis. Garrick's paper summarizes the lessons learned from ten PRA's conducted in the nuclear industry, including six that can be characterized as full-scope risk studies. Most of the quantitative data, though, came from two especially thorough studies done for the Zion and Indian Point power plants, operated by Commonwealth Edison and Consolidated Edison respectively. The principal conclusions of the Garrick survey are that the public risk (from radiation release) is now known to be very small for commercial nuclear power plants, but that the risk to utilities (from core damage) is somewhat larger. Significant radiation releases require both core meltdown -- an event occurring only about once every 10,000 reactor-years -- and containment failure, occurring only about once in every hundred meltdowns

Considerations on comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation planning of volcanic ash-fall

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toshida, Kiyoshi

2010-01-01

Volcanic ash-fall is inevitable hazard throughout Japan, and causes wide range of effects due to its physical and chemical properties. Nuclear power plants in Japan face the necessity to assess the risk from volcanic ash-fall. Risk assessment of the volcanic ash-fall should include engineering solution and mitigation planning as well as the ash-fall hazard. This report points out the characteristics for reducing the various effects of volcanic ash-fall as follows. Large-scale eruptions produce prominent volcanic ash-falls that can approach power plants at a great distance. Aftermath hazards of ash-fall events, such as remobilization of fine ash particles and generation of lahars, require further assessments. The kind and extent of damages becomes greater whenever ash is wet. Wet ash requires separate assessments in contrast to dry ash. The mitigation and recovery measures at power plants involve quick cleanup operations of volcanic ash. Those operations should be prepared through comprehensive risk assessment, and by cooperation with authorities, during pre-eruption repose period. The comprehensive assessment for volcanic ash-fall hazards, however, has yet to be conducted. Development of risk communication method may result in increased implementation mitigation planning. Numerical analysis of the ash-fall hazards provides quantitative data on particle motions that can be used in the risk assessment. In order to implement the quantitative assessment method, the verification on the effect of ambient air condition to the altitude of volcanic ash cloud is necessary. We need to develop a three-dimensional model of volcanic ash cloud, and calculate motions of ash clouds under multiple conditions of ambient air. (author)

DALY-Based Health Risk Assessment of Construction Noise in Beijing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Jun; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Zhihui

2016-01-01

Noise produced by construction activities has become the second most serious acoustic polluting element in China. To provide industry practitioners with a better understanding of the health risks of construction noise and to aid in creating environmentally friendly construction plans during early construction stages, we developed a quantitative model to assess the health impairment risks (HIA) associated with construction noise for individuals living adjacent to construction sites. This model classifies noise-induced health impairments into four categories: cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, sleep disturbance, and annoyance, and uses disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as an indicator of damage. Furthermore, the value of a statistical life (VSL) is used to transform DALYs into a monetary value based on the affected demographic characteristics, thereby offering policy makers a reliable theoretical foundation for establishing reasonable standards to compensate residents suffering from construction noise. A practical earthwork project in Beijing is used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. The results indicate that construction noise could bring significant health risks to the neighboring resident community, with an estimated 34.51 DALYs of health damage and 20.47 million yuan in social costs. In particular, people aged 45–54 are most vulnerable to construction noise, with the greatest health risks being caused by sleep disturbance. PMID:27792207

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Integral statistical eco-indices - effective complementary tool for assessment of ecological state of and ecological risks for water ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashamkova, I

2010-01-01

Eco-indices are successfully used for assessment of the ecological state and risks of water reservoirs. They allow, already at early stages, to detect negative effects on water ecosystems caused by progressive anthropogenic impacts and widening of the spectrum of pollutants, and to quantitatively evaluate ecological risks and damage for water reservoirs. Implementing these modern tools to water quality assessment is one of the lines to make decisions concerning challenging environmental problems.

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

Development of creep damage assessment system for aged thermal power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nonaka, Isamu [IshikawaJima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Umaki, Hideo [Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Nishida, Hidetalca [The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc., Hiroshima (Japan); Yamaguchi, Hiroshi [The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc., Hiroshima (Japan)

1999-12-31

IHI has developed the Creep Damage Assessment System to identify voids by processing an image observed by a small laser microscope with an advanced image processing technique jointly with Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc. The result can be obtained immediately on the spot. Application tests of the system at the Unit No.3 boiler of the Kudamatsu Power Station showed good operability, adaptability to the environment, and accuracy. The new system can easily indicate damage conditions in parts during the periodical inspection, allowing rapid maintenance. Time reduction required for assessment and increased reliability of equipment can be also achieved. (orig.)

Development of creep damage assessment system for aged thermal power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nonaka, Isamu [IshikawaJima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Umaki, Hideo [Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Nishida, Hidetalca [The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc., Hiroshima (Japan); Yamaguchi, Hiroshi [The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc., Hiroshima (Japan)

1998-12-31

IHI has developed the Creep Damage Assessment System to identify voids by processing an image observed by a small laser microscope with an advanced image processing technique jointly with Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc. The result can be obtained immediately on the spot. Application tests of the system at the Unit No.3 boiler of the Kudamatsu Power Station showed good operability, adaptability to the environment, and accuracy. The new system can easily indicate damage conditions in parts during the periodical inspection, allowing rapid maintenance. Time reduction required for assessment and increased reliability of equipment can be also achieved. (orig.)

Development of a seismic damage assessment program for nuclear power plant structures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koh, Hyun Moo; Cho, Yang Heui; Shin, Hyun Mok [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

2001-12-15

The most part of the nuclear power plants operating currently in Korea are more than 20 years old and obviously we cannot pretend that their original performance is actually maintained. In addition, earthquake occurrences show an increasing trend all over the world, and Korea can no more be considered as a zone safe from earthquake. Therefore, need is to guarantee the safety of these power plant structures against seismic accident, to decide to maintain them operational and to obtain data relative to maintenance/repair. Such objectives can be reached by damage assessment using inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation. It appears to be more important particularly for the structure enclosing the nuclear reactor that must absolutely protect against any radioactive leakage. Actually, the tendency of the technical world, led by the OECD/NEA, BNL in the United States, CEA in France and IAEA, is to develop researches or programs to assess the seismic safety considering aging degradation of operating nuclear power plants. Regard to the above-mentioned international technical trend, a technology to establish inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation so as to assess damage level and seismic safety margin appears to be necessary. Damage assessment and prediction system to grasp in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and damage level by 3-dimensional graphic representations are also required.

Development of a seismic damage assessment program for nuclear power plant structures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koh, Hyun Moo; Cho, Ho Hyun; Cho, Yang Hui [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

2000-12-15

Some of nuclear power plants operating currently in Korea have been passed about 20 years after construction. Moreover, in the case of KORI I the service year is over 20 years, so their abilities are different from initial abilities. Also, earthquake outbreak increase, our country is not safe area for earthquake. Therefore, need is to guarantee the safety of these power plant structures against seismic accident, to decide to maintain them operational and to obtain data relative to maintenance/repair. Such objectives can be reached by damage assessment using inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation. It appears to be more important particularly for the structure enclosing the nuclear reactor that must absolutely protect against any radioactive leakage. Actually, the tendency of the technical world, led by the OECD/NEA, BNL in the United States, CEA in France and IAEA, is to develop researches or programs to assess the seismic safety considering aging degradation of operating nuclear power plants. Regard to the above-mentioned international technical trend, a technology to establish inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation so as to assess damage level and seismic safety margin appears to be necessary. Damage assessment and prediction system to grasp in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and damage level by 3-dimensional graphic representations are also required.

Environmental management: Integrating ecological evaluation, remediation, restoration, natural resource damage assessment and long-term stewardship on contaminated lands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burger, Joanna

2008-01-01

Ecological evaluation is essential for remediation, restoration, and Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA), and forms the basis for many management practices. These include determining status and trends of biological, physical, or chemical/radiological conditions, conducting environmental impact assessments, performing remedial actions should remediation fail, managing ecosystems and wildlife, and assessing the efficacy of remediation, restoration, and long-term stewardship. The objective of this paper is to explore the meanings of these assessments, examine the relationships among them, and suggest methods of integration that will move environmental management forward. While remediation, restoration, and NRDA, among others, are often conducted separately, it is important to integrate them for contaminated land where the risks to ecoreceptors (including humans) can be high, and the potential damage to functioning ecosystems great. Ecological evaluations can range from inventories of local plants and animals, determinations of reproductive success of particular species, levels of contaminants in organisms, kinds and levels of effects, and environmental impact assessments, to very formal ecological risk assessments for a chemical or other stressor. Such evaluations can range from the individual species to populations, communities, ecosystems or the landscape scale. Ecological evaluations serve as the basis for making decisions about the levels and kinds of remediation, the levels and kinds of restoration possible, and the degree and kinds of natural resource injuries that have occurred because of contamination. Many different disciplines are involved in ecological evaluation, including biologists, conservationists, foresters, restoration ecologists, ecological engineers, economists, hydrologist, and geologists. Since ecological evaluation forms the basis for so many different types of environmental management, it seems reasonable to integrate management options

Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

2016-05-01

Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

Emergency Response Damage Assessment using Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Science.gov (United States)

Clandillon, Stephen; Yésou, Hervé; Schneiderhan, Tobias; de Boissezon, Hélène; de Fraipont, Paul

2013-04-01

During disasters rescue and relief organisations need quick access to reliable and accurate information to be better equipped to do their job. It is increasingly felt that satellites offer a unique near real time (NRT) tool to aid disaster management. A short introduction to the International Charter 'Space and Major Disasters', in operation since 2000 promoting worldwide cooperation among member space agencies, will be given as it is the foundation on which satellite-based, emergency response, damage assessment has been built. Other complementary mechanisms will also be discussed. The user access, triggering mechanism, an essential component for this user-driven service, will be highlighted with its 24/7 single access point. Then, a clear distinction will be made between data provision and geo-information delivery mechanisms to underline the user need for geo-information that is easily integrated into their working environments. Briefly, the path to assured emergency response product quality will be presented beginning with user requirements, expressed early-on, for emergency response value-adding services. Initiatives were then established, supported by national and European institutions, to develop the sector, with SERTIT and DLR being key players, providing support to decision makers in headquarters and relief teams in the field. To consistently meet the high quality levels demanded by users, rapid mapping has been transformed via workflow and quality control standardisation to improve both speed and quality. As such, SERTIT located in Alsace, France, and DLR/ZKI from Bavaria, Germany, join their knowledge in this presentation to report about recent standards as both have ISO certified their rapid mapping services based on experienced, well-trained, 24/7 on-call teams and established systems providing the first crisis analysis product in 6 hours after satellite data reception. The three main product types provided are then outlined: up-to-date pre

Assessment of injury from the MEGA BORG oil spill: A case of cooperative damage assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mauseth, G.S.

1993-01-01

The tanker MEGA BORG exploded while lightering about 60 miles offshore of Galveston, Texas on 8 June 1990. The explosion was followed by a spectacular fire and major release of Angolan crude. Up to 5.1 million gallons of the 41 million gallon cargo was lost to the sea or burning over a period of seven days. Vessel interests took responsibility for the spill and employed skimming and dispersive cleanup techniques. It is estimated that approximately 126 gallons ultimately reached shore in western Louisiana. Within a day of the explosion, the Norwegian vessel owner, French cargo owner and the Norwegian vessel insurer entered into discussion with the Texas Water Commission and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration regarding damage assessment options. Within the next two days the owners agreed to fund and participate in a cooperative preliminary assessment of environmental injury. Five projects were funded to determine whether there was sufficient injury to justify the completion of a full natural resource damage assessment: (1) Fate of spilled oil; (2) Effects on shrimp fishery; (3) Effects on marine mammals and turtles; (4) Effects of beach oiling and (5) Effects on recreation. Funds were also provided for report preparation and project management. Several issues of major concern were considered by vessel interests prior to agreement. Many of these issues are common to consideration of cooperative assessments and may be critical importance to future incidents particularly if the damage assessment regulations developed pursuant to the Oil Pollution Act encourage cooperative responses

Easy To Use Remote Sensing and GIS Analysis for Landslide Risk Assessment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hayder Dibs

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Many countries throughout the world suffered from the natural risks, they cause a large damage in property and loss in human lives, we cannot prevent the occurring of these hazards but, it is possible to reduce their affect in saving human lives and reducing the damage in properties. Several methodologies have been conducted to predict the suitable model for landslide assessment. The susceptibility maps of landslide hazard generated by combining the remote sensed data with the capability of GIS (geographic information system. We discussed different type of algorithms and factors for modeling the prediction of landslide risk assessment such as SVM (support vector machine, DT (decision tree, ANFIS (adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system, AHP (analytic hierarchy process, ANN (artificial neural network, probability frequency of landslides occurrence factors model and empirical model. The study evaluated various parameters that are responsible for landslide occurrence and the weighting for each parameter and its importance to probable of landslide activity. AHP method, Weights of evidence model, and back propagation method have been applied for weighting the factors.  We found that using ANN algorithm with more than ten factors will give high accuracy result especially if the validation performs by field surveys data.

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Damage Identification and Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Historic Masonry Chimney

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria-Giovanna Masciotta

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The present paper deals with the dynamic characterisation of a historical masonry chimney aimed at identifying the structural damage and assessing its seismic performance. The structure was severely damaged by a lightning accident and in-depth repair works were executed to re-instate its sound configuration. The case study is fully detailed, including the aspects of survey, inspection, diagnosis, and evolution of the dynamic properties of the system throughout the structural intervention. Considering the explicit dependence of the power spectral densities of measured nodal processes on their frequency content, a spectrum-driven algorithm is used to detect and locate the damage. The paper shows that the eigenparameters obtained from the decomposition of the response power spectrum matrix are sensitive to system’s changes caused by evolutionary damage scenarios, thereby resulting excellent indicators for assessing both the presence and position of structural vulnerabilities. The results are compared with the ones from other modal-based damage identification methods and the strengths/limitations of the tools currently available in literature are extensively discussed. Finally, based on the crack pattern surveyed before the repair works, the weakest links of the chimney are identified and the most meaningful collapse mechanisms are analysed to verify the seismic capacity of the structure. According to the results of the kinematic analysis, the chimney does withstand the maximum site peak ground acceleration.

Intelligent Aircraft Damage Assessment, Trajectory Planning, and Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, Israel; Sarigul-Klijn, Nesrin

Situational awareness and learning are necessary to identify and select the optimal set of mutually non-exclusive hypothesis in order to maximize mission performance and adapt system behavior accordingly. This paper presents a hierarchical and decentralized approach for integrated damage assessment and trajectory planning in aircraft with uncertain navigational decision-making. Aircraft navigation can be safely accomplished by properly addressing the following: decision-making, obstacle perception, aircraft state estimation, and aircraft control. When in-flight failures or damage occur, rapid and precise decision-making under imprecise information is required in order to regain and maintain control of the aircraft. To achieve planned aircraft trajectory and complete safe landing, the uncertainties in system dynamics of the damaged aircraft need to be learned and incorporated at the level of motion planning. The damaged aircraft is simulated via a simplified kinematic model. The different sources and perspectives of uncertainties in the damage assessment process and post-failure trajectory planning are presented and classified. The decision-making process for an emergency motion planning and landing is developed via the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The objective of the trajectory planning is to arrive at a target position while maximizing the safety of the aircraft given uncertain conditions. Simulations are presented for an emergency motion planning and landing that takes into account aircraft dynamics, path complexity, distance to landing site, runway characteristics, and subjective human decision.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Assessment and management of cancer risks from radiological and chemical hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-01-01

A Joint Working Group was established in April 1995 by the President of the Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) and the Assistant Deputy Minister of the Health Protection Branch of Health Canada to examine the similarities, disparities and inconsistencies between the levels of risk considered acceptable for regulating ionizing radiation and those considered acceptable for regulating chemical and microbiological hazards. During the process of collecting, analysing and interpreting information, the Joint Working Group realized that its terms of reference as written presented a major difficulty because of the lack of consensus on acceptable levels of risk. Consequently it decided that the most reasonable way to proceed was to compare the risk assessment and management processes used to protect the public from radiation, chemicals and microbiological hazards. This report concentrates on the assessment and management of ionizing radiation and genotoxic chemicals (which both cause cancer by damaging the DNA in cells) and pays less attention to non-genotoxic effects and microbiological hazards. The report also examines public more than occupational exposures and exposures from man-made rather than naturally occurring agents. (author)

Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Collisions damage assessment of ships and jack-up rigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Shengming; Pedersen, P. Terndrup; Ocakli, Hasan

2015-01-01

Ship collision with offshore installations is one of the key concerns in design and assess of platforms performance and safety. This paper presents an analysis on collision energy and structural damage in ship and offshore platform collisions for various collision scenarios. The platform or rig...

Hurricane Harvey: Infrastructure Damage Assessment of Texas' Central Gulf Coast Region

Science.gov (United States)

Mooney, W. D.; Fovenyessy, S.; Patterson, S. F.

2017-12-01

We report a detailed ground-based damage survey for Hurricane Harvey, the first major hurricane to make landfall along the central Texas coast since the 1970 Category 3 Hurricane Celia. Harvey, a Category 4 storm, made landfall near Rockport, Texas on August 25th, 2017 at 10 PM local time. From September 2nd to 5th we visited Rockport and 22 nearby cities to assess the severity of the damage. Nearly all damage observed occurred as a direct result of the hurricane-force winds, rather than a storm surge. This observation is in contrast to the severe damage caused by both high winds and a significant storm surge, locally 3 to 5 m in height, in the 2013 Category 5 Hurricane Haiyan, that devastated the Philippines. We have adopted a damage scale and have given an average damage score for each of the areas investigated. Our damage contour map illustrates the areal variation in damage. The damage observed was widespread with a high degree of variability. Different types of damage included: (1) fallen fences and utility poles; (2) trees with branches broken or completely snapped in half; (3) business signs that were either partially or fully destroyed; (4) partially sunken or otherwise damaged boats; (5) and sheet metal sheds either completely or partially destroyed. There was also varying degrees of damage to both residential and commercial structures. Many homes had (6) roof damage, ranging from minor damage to complete destruction of the roof and second story, and (7) siding damage, where parts or whole sections of the homes siding had been removed. The area that had the lowest average damage score was Corpus Christi, and the areas that had the highest average damage score was both Fulton and Holiday Beach. There is no simple, uniform pattern of damage distribution. Rather, the damage was scattered, revealing hot spots of areas that received more damage than the surrounding area. However, when compared to the NOAA wind swath map, all of the damage was contained within

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies to reduce non-structural damage

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa Oliveira, Carlos; Lopes, Mário; Mota de Sá, Francisco; Amaral Ferreia, Mónica; Candeias, Paulo; Campos Costa, Alfredo; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Meroni, Fabrizio; Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Langer, Horst; Musacchio, Gemma; Sousa Silva, Delta; Falsaperla, Susanna; Scarfì, Luciano; Tusa, Giuseppina; Tuvé, Tiziana

2016-04-01

The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. Non-structural components of a building include all those components that are not part of the structural system, more specifically the architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, as well as furniture, fixtures, equipment, and contents. Windows, partitions, granite veneer, piping, ceilings, air conditioning ducts and equipment, elevators, computer and hospital equipment, file cabinets, and retail merchandise are all examples of non-structural components that are vulnerable to earthquake damage. We will use the experience gained during past earthquakes, which struck in particular Iceland, Italy and Portugal (Azores). Securing the non-structural elements improves the safety during an earthquake and saves lives. This paper aims at identifying non-structural seismic protection measures in the pilot areas and to develop a portfolio of good practices for the most common and serious non-structural vulnerabilities. This systematic identification and the portfolio will be achieved through a "cross-knowledge" strategy based on previous researches, evidence of non-structural damage in past earthquakes. Shake table tests of a group of non-structural elements will be performed. These tests will be filmed and, jointly with portfolio, will serve as didactic supporting tools to be used in workshops with building construction stakeholders and in risk communication activities. A Practical Guide for non-structural risk reduction will be specifically prepared for citizens on the basis of the outputs of the project, taking into account the local culture and needs of each participating country.

A probabilistic risk assessment of Oconee Unit 3. Executive highlights 60

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-04-01

In 1980 the Nuclear Safety Analysis Center and Duke Power Co. joined in a project to provide the utility industry with a practical, useful example of the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods. PRA is a structured analysis technique that accounts for all the failure possibilities that might conceivably lead to core damage. The technique uses probabilities as discriminators to determine which are most significant. The following were project objectives: to provide the host utility with an analytic model of the plant that describes and estimates the likelihood of failure combinations that could lead to core melt; to evaluate the risks to the plant and to the public; to improve utility capabilities in PRA methods and applications

Dynamics of combined forest damage risks for 21st century (SRES A1B, B1)

Science.gov (United States)

Panferov, Oleg; Merklein, Johannes; Sogachev, Andrey; Junghans, Udo; Ahrends, Bernd

2010-05-01

The ongoing climate change can result in increasing frequency of weather extremes (Leckebusch et al., 2008) which in turn can produce wide area forest damage (windthrows, droughts, insect attacks) within forest ecosystems in Europe. The probability and extent of damage, depend not only on a strength of a driving force itself but especially on combinations of effecting agents and their interactions with forest ecosystem structure and soil properties. The combined effect of several factors which are not the extremes themselves can lead to the biotic and/or abiotic damage so that the combination becomes an extreme event. As soon as a damage event occurs, the forest structure is changed. The changes in forest structure in their turn strengthen or inhibits the influence of different climatic factors thus increase or decrease the probability of the next damage event creating positive or negative feedbacks. To assess the roles of separate meteorological factors and their combinations in forest damage under present and future climatic conditions the coupled model was created in University of Goettingen, as a part of a Decision Support System (Jansen et al, 2008, Panferov et al., 2009). The model combines the 3D ABL Model SCADIS (Panferov and Sogachev, 2008) with modified soil hydrology model BROOK 90 (Federer, 2003, Ahrends et al. 2009) and the model of climate dependent biotic damage. The projected future developments of forest damage events in 21st Century were carried out under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1; the present conditions were evaluated using the measured data of German Weather Service. Climate scenario data of coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM were downscaled by the regional climate model Climate Local Model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of 0.2° x 0.2° and temporal resolution of 24 hours. Using these data as input the small-scale coupled process based modeling was then carried out for example region of Solling, Germany calculating the water and energy balance

Damage scenarios and an onboard support system for damaged ships

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Choi Jin

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Although a safety assessment of damaged ships, which considers environmental conditions such as waves and wind, is important in both the design and operation phases of ships, in Korea, rules or guidelines to conduct such assessments are not yet developed. However, NATO and European maritime societies have developed guidelines for a safety assessment. Therefore, it is required to develop rules or guidelines for safety assessments such as the Naval Ship Code (NSC of NATO. Before the safety assessment of a damaged ship can be performed, the available damage scenarios must be developed and the safety assessment criteria must be established. In this paper, the parameters related to damage by accidents are identified and categorized when developing damage scenarios. The need for damage safety assessment criteria is discussed, and an example is presented. In addition, a concept and specifications for the DB-based supporting system, which is used in the operation phases, are proposed.

Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of Propensity Score Matching

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Kreibich, H.; Bubeck, P.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2014-01-01

The employment of damage mitigation measures (DMMs) by individuals is an important component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the

VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

2005-01-01

Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

Karst risk assessment for engineering in Nizhny Novgorod region, Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tolmachev Vladimir

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Federal Standards of the Russian include the requirement of mandatory assessment of the risks induced by natural processes in order to make sure their values do not exceed acceptable limits. To meet the requirement a number of karst risk assessment methods have been developed for the regions of the country where the most significant hazard is presented by karst sinkholes. For this particular application karst risk is understood as specific probability of sinkhole development on a unit area per a unit time span with account of probable economic, social and environmental components of damage. The probability of sinkhole development is evaluated by specialists in engineering karstology and designers. They make use of the acceptable data on the environmental conditions and apply stochastic laws of sinkhole development in time and space, alongside with focusing on all other relevant specificity of the building or facility to be built. Acceptable limits of karst risks should be specified by a multidisciplinary team including designers, lawyers, economists, insurers, environmentalists, engineering karstologists and other specialists on the basis of their expert knowledge. It has been demonstrated that a ratio between predicted and acceptable karst risk values can serve a practically meaningful karst risk level indicator for the purposes of building on karst. This ratio can be used with a rather high degree of objectiveness to develop a programme of antikarst activities during both facilities construction and operation.

FOREIGN CURRENCY RISK HEDGING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihaela SUDACEVSCHI

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the traditional types of exchange rate risk faced by firms and some of principal methods of exchange risk management that a company which make foreign currency operations can use. Foreign currency risk management involves both assessing the risk faced by the companies and adopting measures for the risk hedging or reduce the damage it may cause. The damages result from the company’s unfavorable difference between the exchange rates of the currencies in which the transactions are made.

Merging Remote Sensing and Socioeconomic Data to Improve Disaster Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Yetman, G.; Chen, R. S.; Huyck, C. K.

2015-12-01

Natural disasters disproportionately impact developing country economies while also impacting business operations for multi-national corporations that rely on supplies and manufacturing in affected areas. Understanding natural hazard risk is only a first step towards preparedness and mitigation—data on facilities, transportation, critical infrastructure, and populations that may be exposed to disasters is required to plan for events and properly assess risks. Detailed exposure data can be used in models to predict casualty rates, aggregate estimates of building damage or destruction, impacts on business operations, and the scale of recovery efforts required. These model outputs are useful for disaster preparedness planning by national and international organizations, as well as for corporations and the reinsurance industry seeking to better understand their risk exposure. Many of these data are lacking for developing countries. Rapid assessment in areas with minimal data for disaster modeling is possible by combing remote sensing data, sample data on construction methods, facility and critical infrastructure data, and economic and demographic census information. This presentation focuses on the methods used to fuse the physical and socioeconomic data by presenting the results from two projects. The first project seeks to improve earthquake risk assessments in Asia using for the reinsurance industry, while the second project builds an integrated exposure database across five countries in Africa for use by international development organizations.

Framework for probabilistic flood risk assessment in an Alpine region

Science.gov (United States)

Schneeberger, Klaus; Huttenlau, Matthias; Steinberger, Thomas; Achleitner, Stefan; Stötter, Johann

2014-05-01

Flooding is among the natural hazards that regularly cause significant losses to property and human lives. The assessment of flood risk delivers crucial information for all participants involved in flood risk management and especially for local authorities and insurance companies in order to estimate the possible flood losses. Therefore a framework for assessing flood risk has been developed and is introduced with the presented contribution. Flood risk is thereby defined as combination of the probability of flood events and of potential flood damages. The probability of occurrence is described through the spatial and temporal characterisation of flood. The potential flood damages are determined in the course of vulnerability assessment, whereas, the exposure and the vulnerability of the elements at risks are considered. Direct costs caused by flooding with the focus on residential building are analysed. The innovative part of this contribution lies on the development of a framework which takes the probability of flood events and their spatio-temporal characteristic into account. Usually the probability of flooding will be determined by means of recurrence intervals for an entire catchment without any spatial variation. This may lead to a misinterpretation of the flood risk. Within the presented framework the probabilistic flood risk assessment is based on analysis of a large number of spatial correlated flood events. Since the number of historic flood events is relatively small additional events have to be generated synthetically. This temporal extrapolation is realised by means of the method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004). It is used to generate a large number of possible spatial correlated flood events within a larger catchment. The approach is based on the modelling of multivariate extremes considering the spatial dependence structure of flood events. The input for this approach are time series derived from river gauging stations. In a next step the

The Assessment of Primary DNA Damage in Medical Personnel Occupationally Exposed to Ionizing Radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopjar, N.; Garaj-Vrhovac, V.

2003-01-01

In physico-chemical interaction with cellular DNA ionizing radiation produces a variety of primary lesions, such as single-strand breaks (SSB), alkali-labile sites, double-strand breaks (DSB), DNA-DNA and DNA-protein crosslinks, and damage to purine and pyrimidine bases. The effects of low-level exposure to ionising radiation are of concern to large number of people, including workers receiving radiation exposure on the job. It is very important to estimate absorbed doses from individuals occupationally exposed to ionising radiation for carrying out radioprotection procedures and restrict the hazards to human health. A wide range of methods is presently used for the detection of early biological effects of DNA-damaging agents in environmental and occupational settings. Currently, unstable chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes, in particularly dicentrics, are the most fully developed biological indicators of ionizing radiation exposure. This methodology usually complements data obtained by physical dosimetry. As a routine, it is used whenever the individual dosimeter shows an exposure to penetrating radiation above its limit of detection. One of the advantages of cytogenetic dosimetry is that this biological dosimeter can be assessed at any moment whereas physical dosimeters are not always present in the subject. During the last years, the single cell gel electrophoresis (SCGE) or comet assay has gained widespread acceptance for genotoxicity testing. In molecular epidemiology studies DNA damage evaluated by the comet assay is utilized as a biomarker of exposure. The comet assay permits the detection of primary DNA damage and the study of repair kinetics at the level of single cells. The aim of the present study was to assess and quantificate the levels of DNA damage in peripheral blood leukocytes of medical workers occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation and corresponding unexposed control subjects. As a sensitive biomarker of exposure the

Assessing Risks of Mine Tailing Dam Failures

Science.gov (United States)

Concha Larrauri, P.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The consequences of tailings dam failures can be catastrophic for communities and ecosystems in the vicinity of the dams. The failure of the Fundão tailings dam at the Samarco mine in 2015 killed 19 people with severe consequences for the environment. The financial and legal consequences of a tailings dam failure can also be significant for the mining companies. For the Fundão tailings dam, the company had to pay 6 billion dollars in fines and twenty-one executives were charged with qualified murder. There are tenths of thousands of active, inactive, and abandoned tailings dams in the world and there is a need to better understand the hazards posed by these structures to downstream populations and ecosystems. A challenge to assess the risks of tailings dams in a large scale is that many of them are not registered in publicly available databases and there is little information about their current physical state. Additionally, hazard classifications of tailings dams - common in many countries- tend to be subjective, include vague parameter definitions, and are not always updated over time. Here we present a simple methodology to assess and rank the exposure to tailings dams using ArcGIS that removes subjective interpretations. The method uses basic information such as current dam height, storage volume, topography, population, land use, and hydrological data. A hazard rating risk was developed to compare the potential extent of the damage across dams. This assessment provides a general overview of what in the vicinity of the tailings dams could be affected in case of a failure and a way to rank tailings dams that is directly linked to the exposure at any given time. One hundred tailings dams in Minas Gerais, Brazil were used for the test case. This ranking approach could inform the risk management strategy of the tailings dams within a company, and when disclosed, it could enable shareholders and the communities to make decisions on the risks they are taking.

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Mutuality and solidarity: assessing risks and sharing losses.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkie, D

1997-01-01

Mutuality is the principle of private, commercial insurance; individuals enter the pool for sharing losses, and pay according to the best estimate of the risk they bring with them. Solidarity is the sharing of losses with payment according to some other scheme; this is the principle of state social insurance; essential features of solidarity are comprehensiveness and compulsion. Private insurance is subject to the uberrima fides principle, or utmost good faith; each side declares all it knows about the risk. The Disability Discrimination Act requires insurers to justify disability discrimination on the basis of relevant information, acturial, statistical or medical, on which it is reasonable to rely. It could be very damaging to private insurance to abandon uberrima fides. However, although some genetic information is clearly useful to underwriters, other information may be so general as to be of little use. The way in which mortality rates are assessed is also explained. PMID:9304668

Impedance-based damage assessment using piezoelectric sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Rim, Mi-Sun; Yoo, Seung-Jae; Lee, In; Song, Jae-Hoon; Yang, Jae-Won

2011-04-01

Recently structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are being focused because they make it possible to assess the health of structures at real-time in many application fields such as aircraft, aerospace, civil and so on. Piezoelectric materials are widely used for sensors of SHM system to monitor damage of critical parts such as bolted joints. Bolted joints could be loosened by vibration, thermal cycling, shock, corrosion, and they cause serious mechanical failures. In this paper, impedance-based method using piezoelectric sensors was applied for real-time SHM. A steel beam specimen fastened by bolts was tested, and polymer type piezoelectric materials, PVDFs were used for sensors to monitor the condition of bolted joint connections. When structure has some damage, for example loose bolts, the impedance of PVDF sensors showed different tendency with normal structure which has no loose bolts. In the case of loose bolts, impedance values are decreased and admittance values are increased.

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Natural resource damage assessment models for Great Lakes, coastal, and marine environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

French, D.P.; Reed, M.

1993-01-01

A computer model of the physical fates, biological effects, and economic damages resulting from releases of oil and other hazardous materials has been developed by Applied Science Associates to be used in Type A natural resource damage assessments under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Natural resource damage assessment models for great lakes environments and for coastal and marine environments will become available. A coupled geographical information system allows gridded representation of complex coastal boundaries, variable bathymetry, shoreline types, and multiple biological habitats. The physical and biological models are three dimensional. Direct mortality from toxic concentrations and oiling, impacts of habitat loss, and food web losses are included in the model. Estimation of natural resource damages is based both on the lost value of injured resources and on the costs of restoring or replacing those resources. The models are implemented on a personal computer, with a VGA graphical user interface. Following public review, the models will become a formal part of the US regulatory framework. The models are programmed in a modular and generic fashion, to facilitate transportability and application to new areas. The model has several major components. Physical fates and biological effects submodels estimate impacts or injury resulting from a spill. The hydrodynamic submodel calculates currents that transport contaminant(s) or organisms. The compensable value submodel values injuries to help assess damages. The restoration submodel determines what restoration actions will most cost-effectively reduce injuries as measured by compensable values. Injury and restoration costs are assessed for each of a series of habitats (environments) affected by the spill. Environmental, chemical, and biological databases supply required information to the model for computing fates and effects (injury)

Rapid Damage Assessment by Means of Multi-Temporal SAR — A Comprehensive Review and Outlook to Sentinel-1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Plank

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Fast crisis response after natural disasters, such as earthquakes and tropical storms, is necessary to support, for instance, rescue, humanitarian, and reconstruction operations in the crisis area. Therefore, rapid damage mapping after a disaster is crucial, i.e., to detect the affected area, including grade and type of damage. Thereby, satellite remote sensing plays a key role due to its fast response, wide field of view, and low cost. With the increasing availability of remote sensing data, numerous methods have been developed for damage assessment. This article gives a comprehensive review of these techniques focusing on multi-temporal SAR procedures for rapid damage assessment: interferometric coherence and intensity correlation. The review is divided into six parts: First, methods based on coherence; second, the ones using intensity correlation; and third, techniques using both methodologies combined to increase the accuracy of the damage assessment are reviewed. Next, studies using additional data (e.g., GIS and optical imagery to support the damage assessment and increase its accuracy are reported. Moreover, selected studies on post-event SAR damage assessment techniques and examples of other applications of the interferometric coherence are presented. Then, the preconditions for a successful worldwide application of multi-temporal SAR methods for damage assessment and the limitations of current SAR satellite missions are reported. Finally, an outlook to the Sentinel-1 SAR mission shows possible solutions of these limitations, enabling a worldwide applicability of the presented damage assessment methods.

Recent developments in the external hazard risk assessment in Ukraine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

Ukrainian legislation prescribes safety analysis reports for all operating and future NPPs. Apart from main report they must include: safety analysis supplement; design basis accident analysis; beyond design basis accident analysis; probabilistic safety assessment (PSA); technical; substantiation of safety. Regulatory requirements to PSA contents cover the criteria for core damage frequency and large radioactive release frequency. Initiating events taken into account are internal events; internal hazards and external hazards. External hazards to be considered are seismic events, external fires, external floods, extreme ambient temperatures, aircraft crashes, etc. Current status of PSA development is related to operating WWER-440 and WWER-1000 NPPs and NPPs under construction. This presentation describes in detail the external hazard risk assessment for South Ukraine including methodology applied and expected future activities

National report of Great Britain. Risks and risk assessment according to British legislation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vieweg, K.

1980-01-01

Who has got the competence in Great Britain to decide about criteria to be applied and methods to be taken in the prevention of damage thus ensuring the required safety standards and definine the maximum acceptable risk to be taken due to the operation of industrial and other facilities. The answer is laid down in the legal regulations covering virtually all industrial and technical installations. The author discusses the skeleton regulations of the 'Health and Safety at Work Act 1974', which is to be considered as the basis of British industrial law. Giving numerous examples, the author explains the legal status and administrative practice concerning the wide range of conventional technical facilities. Furthermore, he describes legal status and administrative practice concerning nuclear facilities and aircraft. After discussing methods of environmental pollution control, especially air pollution, the author enters into the regulations governing planning procedures of great relevance in Britain's legal practice, and the administrative procedures, shown by the example of the Windscale Inquiry. Finally, the author describes methods of risk assessment in other fields of law and some possible approaches to use risk analyses in the framework of the legal system. (orig./HSCH) [de

Inter-system LOCA risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galyean, W.J.; Kelly, D.L.; Schroeder, J.A.

1991-01-01

Inter-systems loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been included in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) since WASH-1400. While estimated as being relatively low contributors to core damage frequency, ISLOCAs have been identified as major contributors to risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs). They have the potential to result in core melt and containment bypass, which may lead to the early release of large quantities of fission products. Recent events at several operating reactors have been identified as ISLOCA precursors. The occurrence of these events have raised concerns that the frequency of ISLOCA sequences might be underestimated in current state-of-the-art PRAs. In order to expand the current state-of-the-art, a Nuclear Regulatory Commission research program is being conducted by ED and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The objective of the ISLOCA research program is to generate qualitative and quantitative information on the hardware, human factors, and accident consequence issues that dominate nuclear power plant risks for ISLOCA. To meet this objective, the approach being taken includes analysis of all interfaces between the primary reactor coolant system and other, lower pressure systems. This historical experience (primarily, licensee event reports) has provided the basis for determining the scope of the analysis with respect to potential failure mechanisms of the pressure isolation boundary. It is important to note that in the vast majority of these events, the dominant failure was a human error. Because of their significance, human errors are given particular attention in the present analysis

Cerebral Damage May Be the Primary Risk Factor for Visual Impairment in Preschool Children Born Extremely Premature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Slidsborg, Carina; Bangsgaard, Regitze; Fledelius, Hans Callø

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVES To investigate the importance of cerebral damage and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) for visual impairment in preschool children born extremely premature and to determine the primary risk factor of the two. METHODS A clinical follow-up study of a Danish national cohort of children born......, 3.0-25.2; P visual impairment in children born extremely premature, and cerebral damage may be the primary risk...... participants were identified through the National Birth Register and invited to participate in a clinical examination. The children were evaluated with regard to visual acuity, foveal sequelae, and maximum ROP stage and the presence of global developmental deficits (an indicator for cerebral damage...

Ligamentous Injuries and the Risk of Associated Tissue Damage in Acute Ankle Sprains in Athletes: A Cross-sectional MRI Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Roemer, Frank W; Jomaah, Nabil; Niu, Jingbo; Almusa, Emad; Roger, Bernard; D'Hooghe, Pieter; Geertsema, Celeste; Tol, Johannes L; Khan, Karim; Guermazi, Ali

2014-07-01

Ankle joint injuries are extremely common sports injuries, with the anterior talofibular ligament involved in the majority of ankle sprains. There have been only a few large magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies on associated structural injuries after ankle sprains. To describe the injury pattern in athletes who were referred to MRI for the assessment of an acute ankle sprain and to assess the risk of associated traumatic tissue damage including lateral and syndesmotic ligament involvement. Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 261 ankle MRI scans of athletes with acute ankle sprains were evaluated for: lateral and syndesmotic ligament injury; concomitant injuries to the deltoid and spring ligaments and sinus tarsi; peroneal, flexor, and extensor retinacula and tendons; traumatic and nontraumatic osteochondral and osseous changes; and joint effusion. Patients were on average 22.5 years old, and the average time from injury to MRI was 5.7 days. Six exclusive injury patterns were defined based on lateral and syndesmotic ligament involvement. The risk for associated injuries was assessed by logistic regression using ankles with no or only low-grade lateral ligament injuries and no syndesmotic ligament damage as the reference. With regard to the injury pattern, there were 103 ankles (39.5%) with complete anterior talofibular ligament disruption and no syndesmotic injury, and 53 ankles (20.3%) had a syndesmotic injury with or without lateral ligament damage. Acute osteochondral lesions of the lateral talar dome were seen in 20 ankles (7.7%). The percentage of chronic lateral osteochondral lesions was 1.1%. The risk for talar bone contusions increased more than 3-fold for ankles with complete lateral ligament ruptures (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.43; 95% CI, 1.72-6.85) but not for ankles with syndesmotic involvement. The risk for associated deltoid ligament injuries increased for ankles with complete lateral ligament injuries (aOR, 4.04; 95% CI, 1

Risk assessment for invasive species produces net bioeconomic benefits.

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, Reuben P; Lodge, David M; Finnoff, David C

2007-01-02

International commerce in live organisms presents a policy challenge for trade globalization; sales of live organisms create wealth, but some nonindigenous species cause harm. To reduce damage, some countries have implemented species screening to limit the introduction of damaging species. Adoption of new risk assessment (RA) technologies has been slowed, however, by concerns that RA accuracy remains insufficient to produce positive net economic benefits. This concern arises because only a small proportion of all introduced species escape, spread, and cause harm (i.e., become invasive), so a RA will exclude many noninvasive species (which provide a net economic benefit) for every invasive species correctly identified. Here, we develop a simple cost:benefit bioeconomic framework to quantify the net benefits from applying species prescreening. Because invasive species are rarely eradicated, and their damages must therefore be borne for long periods, we have projected the value of RA over a suitable range of policy time horizons (10-500 years). We apply the model to the Australian plant quarantine program and show that this RA program produces positive net economic benefits over the range of reasonable assumptions. Because we use low estimates of the financial damage caused by invasive species and high estimates of the value of species in the ornamental trade, our results underestimate the net benefit of the Australian plant quarantine program. In addition, because plants have relatively low rates of invasion, applying screening protocols to animals would likely demonstrate even greater benefits.

Flood hazards and masonry constructions: a probabilistic framework for damage, risk and resilience at urban scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mebarki

2012-05-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the failure risk of masonry constructions under the effect of floods. It is developed within a probabilistic framework, with loads and resistances considered as random variables. Two complementary approaches have been investigated for this purpose:

– a global approach based on combined effects of several governing parameters with individual weighted contribution (material quality and geometry, presence and distance between columns, beams, openings, resistance of the soil and its slope. . .,
– and a reliability method using the failure mechanism of masonry walls standing out-plane pressure.

The evolution of the probability of failure of masonry constructions according to the flood water level is analysed.

The analysis of different failure probability scenarios for masonry walls is conducted to calibrate the influence of each "vulnerability governing parameter" in the global approach that is widely used in risk assessment at the urban or regional scale.

The global methodology is implemented in a GIS that provides the spatial distribution of damage risk for different flood scenarios. A real case is considered for the simulations, i.e. Cheffes sur Sarthe (France, for which the observed river discharge, the hydraulic load according to the Digital Terrain Model, and the structural resistance are considered as random variables. The damage probability values provided by both approaches are compared. Discussions are also developed about reduction and mitigation of the flood disaster at various scales (set of structures, city, region as well as resilience.