WorldWideScience

Sample records for damage risk assessment

  1. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  2. The Importance of Damage Potential for Avalanche Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiler, M.; Fuchs, S.

    2003-04-01

    Risk is normally expressed as a function of recurrence probability of a process and its related damage potential. Various physical and empirical models describing the process aspect of the risk formula exist in the field of avalanche risk management while studies on damage potential are rare. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study focuses on different possibilities to obtain obligatory input parameters for multitemporal studies in settlement areas. A conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of presence, evaluation of buildings) was developed and applied in Tyrol, Austria. A second approach, working with real-time insurance values for buildings and population growth, was tested in Grison, Switzerland. The different developments of the damage potential in the two alpine study areas are highlighted; their influences on the risk formula are discussed. The results of both studies show the advantages and disadvantages of each method, such as precision, amount of time needed and possibilities of implementing in a GIS. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

  3. Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suski, N.; Wuest, C.

    2011-01-01

    Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre-Assessment

  4. Adapting ecological risk valuation for natural resource damage assessment in water pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuzhen; Wu, Desheng

    2018-07-01

    Ecological risk assessment can address requirements of natural resource damage assessment by quantifying the magnitude of possible damages to the ecosystem. This paper investigates an approach to assess water damages from pollution incident on the basis of concentrations of contaminants. The baseline of water pollution is determined with not-to-exceed concentration of contaminants required by water quality standards. The values of damage cost to water quality are estimated through sewage treatment cost. To get a reliable estimate of treatment cost, DEA is employed to classify samples of sewage plants based on their efficiency of sewage treatment. And exponential fitting is adopted to determine the relation between treatment cost and the decrease of COCs. The range of damage costs is determined through the fitting curves respectively based on efficient and inefficient samples. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A risk assessment method for multi-site damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, Harry Russell, Jr.

    This research focused on developing probabilistic methods suitable for computing small probabilities of failure, e.g., 10sp{-6}, of structures subject to multi-site damage (MSD). MSD is defined as the simultaneous development of fatigue cracks at multiple sites in the same structural element such that the fatigue cracks may coalesce to form one large crack. MSD is modeled as an array of collinear cracks with random initial crack lengths with the centers of the initial cracks spaced uniformly apart. The data used was chosen to be representative of aluminum structures. The structure is considered failed whenever any two adjacent cracks link up. A fatigue computer model is developed that can accurately and efficiently grow a collinear array of arbitrary length cracks from initial size until failure. An algorithm is developed to compute the stress intensity factors of all cracks considering all interaction effects. The probability of failure of two to 100 cracks is studied. Lower bounds on the probability of failure are developed based upon the probability of the largest crack exceeding a critical crack size. The critical crack size is based on the initial crack size that will grow across the ligament when the neighboring crack has zero length. The probability is evaluated using extreme value theory. An upper bound is based on the probability of the maximum sum of initial cracks being greater than a critical crack size. A weakest link sampling approach is developed that can accurately and efficiently compute small probabilities of failure. This methodology is based on predicting the weakest link, i.e., the two cracks to link up first, for a realization of initial crack sizes, and computing the cycles-to-failure using these two cracks. Criteria to determine the weakest link are discussed. Probability results using the weakest link sampling method are compared to Monte Carlo-based benchmark results. The results indicate that very small probabilities can be computed

  6. Coordinating ecological risk assessment with natural resource damage assessment: A panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Brenda; Ammann, Mike; Hoff, Rebecca; Huston, Mark; Jenkins, Kenneth; Palagyi, Tony; Pelto, Karen; Rettig, Todd; Wagner, Anne

    2016-10-01

    Contaminated sites in the United States undergo remediation and restoration through regulatory programs that lead the 2 processes through independent but often parallel pathways with different objectives. The objective of remediation is to reduce risk to human health and the environment, whereas that of restoration is to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost use of the services that natural resources provide. More complex sites, such as those associated with large river systems and urban waterways, have resulted in increasingly larger-scale ecological risk assessments (ERAs) and natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs) that take many years and involve diverse practitioners including scientists, economists, and engineers. Substantial levels of effort are now frequently required, creating a need for more efficient and cost-effective approaches to data collection, analyses, and assessments. Because there are commonalities in the data needs between ERAs and NRDAs, coordination of the design and implementation of site-specific studies that meet the needs of both programs could result in increased efficiency and lower costs. The Association for Environmental Health and Sciences Foundation convened a panel of environmental practitioners from industry, consulting, and regulatory bodies to examine the benefits and challenges associated with coordinating ERA and NRDA activities in the context of a broad range of regulatory programs. This brief communication presents the opinions and conclusions of the panelists on these issues and reports 2 case studies for which coordinated ERA and NRDA activities produced a positive outcome. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:616-621. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

  7. Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng; Wang, Xue

    2017-01-01

    As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor. (paper)

  8. Risk of nuclear damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienzl, K.

    1997-01-01

    Following the opening and words of welcome by Mr. Fritz Unterpertinger (unit director at the Austrian Federal Ministry for the Environment, Youth and Family; BMUJF) Mrs Helga Kromp-Kolb (professor at the Institute for Meteorology and Physics of the University of Natural Resources Science Vienna) illustrated the risks of nuclear damage in Europe by means of a nuclear risk map. She explained that even from a scientific or technical point of view the assessment of risks arising from nuclear power stations was fraught with great uncertainties. Estimates about in how far MCAs (maximum credible accident) could still be controlled by safety systems vary widely and so do assessments of the probability of a core melt. But there is wide agreement in all risk assessments conducted so far that MCAs might occur within a - from a human point of view - conceivable number of years. In this connection one has to bear in mind that the occurrence of such a major accident - whatever its probability may be - could entail immense damage and the question arises whether or not it is at all justifiable to expose the general public to such a risk. Klaus Rennings (Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany) dealt with the economic aspects of nuclear risk assessment. He explained that there are already a number of studies available aiming to assess the risk of damage resulting from a core melt accident in economic terms. As to the probability of occurrence estimates vary widely between one incident in 3,333 and 250,000 year of reactor operation. It is assumed, however, that a nuclear accident involving a core melt in Germany would probably exceed the damage caused by the Chernobyl accident. The following speakers addressed the legal aspects of risks associated with nuclear installations. Mrs Monika Gimpel-Hinteregger (professor at the Institute for Civil Law in Graz) gave an overview on the applicable Austrian law concerning third party liability in the field of nuclear energy

  9. Review of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment: internal events and core damage frequency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilberg, D.; Shiu, K.; Hanan, N.; Anavim, E.

    1985-11-01

    A review of the Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating its risks in relation to those identified in the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400). The scope of the review was limited to the ''front end'' part, i.e., to the evaluation of the frequencies of states in which core damage may occur. Furthermore, the review considered only internally generated accidents, consistent with the scope of the PRA. The review included an assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the Shoreham study. It also encompassed a reevaluation of the main results within the scope and general methodological framework of the Shoreham PRA, including both qualitative and quantitative analyses of accident initiators, data bases, and accident sequences which result in initiation of core damage. Specific comparisons are given between the Shoreham study, the results of the present review, and the WASH-1400 BWR, for the core damage frequency. The effect of modeling uncertainties was considered by a limited sensitivity study so as to show how the results would change if other assumptions were made. This review provides an independently assessed point value estimate of core damage frequency and describes the major contributors, by frontline systems and by accident sequences. 17 figs., 81 tabs

  10. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. A method for assessing frost damage risk in sweet cherry orchards of South Patagonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cittadini, E.D.; Ridder, de N.; Peri, P.L.; Keulen, van H.

    2006-01-01

    Quantification of frost damage risk is important in planning the development of new orchard areas and for decision-making on design and installation of frost control systems. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive method to quantify frost damage risk in different sweet cherry

  12. Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.; Youngblood, R.; Reed, J.W.; McCann, M.; Talwani, T.; Wreathall, J.; Kurth, P.D.; Bandyopadhyay, K.

    1986-03-01

    A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs.

  13. Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.

    1986-03-01

    A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs

  14. Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

  15. Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Rossi, Lauro; Trasforini, Eva; Rudari, Roberto; Ferraris, Luca; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Castelli, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    Flood risk mitigation usually requires a significant investment of public resources and cost-effectiveness should be ensured. The assessment of the benefits of hydraulic works requires the quantification of (i) flood risk in absence of measures, (ii) risk in presence of mitigation works, (iii) investments to achieve acceptable residual risk. In this work a building-scale is adopted to estimate direct tangible flood losses to several building classes (e.g. residential, industrial, commercial, etc.) and respective contents, exploiting various sources of public open data in a GIS environment. The impact simulations for assigned flood hazard scenarios are computed through the RASOR platform which allows for an extensive characterization of the properties and their vulnerability through libraries of stage-damage curves. Recovery and replacement costs are estimated based on insurance data, market values and socio-economic proxies. The methodology is applied to the case study of Florence (Italy) where a system of retention basins upstream of the city is under construction to reduce flood risk. Current flood risk in the study area (70 km 2 ) is about 170 Mio euros per year without accounting for people, infrastructures, cultural heritage and vehicles at risk. The monetary investment in the retention basins is paid off in about 5 years. However, the results show that although hydraulic works are cost-effective, a significant residual risk has to be managed and the achievement of the desired level of acceptable risk would require about 1 billion euros of investments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Charrier; Isabelle, Chuine; Marc, Bonhomme; Thierry, Améglio

    2018-05-01

    Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R 2  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Health Risk Assessment and DNA Damage of Volatile Organic Compounds in Car Painting Houses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patpida Siripongpokin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Car painters who work near volatile organic compounds (VOCs sources, including paints, solvents and painting processes may be exposed to highly elevated VOCs levels. This study investigates air samples from car painting houses in Thailand to evaluate the health risks following inhalation exposure. Personal air samplings were obtained at nine garages in Phitsanulok, Thailand from June to September 2012. The concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes, and styrene in the air workplaces were significantly higher than in a control group of office workers (p < 0.05. Toluene, xylene and ethylbenzene were the most abundant species. However, all VOCs in these air samples were lower than TWA limit of Thailand and the OSHA standard. The lifetime cancer and non-cancer risks for the workers exposed to VOCs were also assessed. The average lifetime cancer risk was 41.0 (38.2-47.2 per million, which is in the acceptable risk. The average lifetime non-cancer risk, the HI, was 0.962 (0.643-1.397, which is well below the reference hazard level. Urine samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed for VOCs metabolites, including t,t muconic acid, hippuric acid, mandelic acid and m-hippuric acid, demonstrate that the average levels of metabolites in car painters and in controls were close. All VOCs metabolites in urine samples were lower than BEI of ACGIH standard. Blood samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed by single cell gel electrophoresis (comet assay. The DNA damage, assessed by tail moment, demonstrates that the average of tail moment in car painters were significantly higher than in the controls (p < 0.05.

  18. Cumulative Effects of Several Target Organ Damages in Risk Assessment in Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbaoui, Brahim; Courand, Pierre-Yves; Defforges, Alice; Khettab, Fouad; Milon, Hugues; Girerd, Nicolas; Lantelme, Pierre

    2016-02-01

    The prognostic value of screening multiple target organ damages (TODs) in hypertensive subjects has not been extensively studied. We estimated the prognostic value of considering 3 TODs in estimating the 10-year survival in hypertensive subjects. At baseline 1,848 out of a cohort of 1,963 hypertensive patients had a previous cardiovascular disease (CVD) or assessments of 3 TODs: Modification in Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) 300mg/day, Sokolow index >3.5 mV, and advanced hypertensive retinopathy (grades 3 and 4 of Keith-Wagener-Barker classification). The cohort was divided into 5 groups: 0 TOD (N = 978), 1 TOD (N = 308), 2 TODs (N = 94), 3 TODs (N = 30), and previous CVD (N = 438). After 10 years of follow-up, we observed 418 deaths of which 254 from cardiovascular cause. The adjusted hazard ratios for the major cardiovascular risk factors showed a progressive risk associated with the number of TODs. For all-cause death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] vs. 0 TOD of the other 4 groups were 1.91 [1.39-2.63], 1.99 [1.28-3.10], 4.33 [2.42-7.72], and 3.09 [2.35-4.05], respectively. For cardiovascular death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] were of the same order of magnitude: 2.14 [1.38-3.32], 2.12 [1.15-3.89], 4.22 [1.83-9.72], and 4.24 [2.95-6.11], respectively. Our results indicate that hypertensive patients with several TODs had a worst outcome. Thus, it seems important to screen for multiple TODs in hypertension; especially check for severe hypertensive retinopathy in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and renal damage. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. TREES OF DAMAGES AS A MODEL OF RISKS ASSESSMENT FOR AVAILABILITY LOSSES AFTER CHANGES IN FINANCIAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Arustamov

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodology for risks assessment of availability losses in financial information systems after changes made in them by using trees of damages. A description of damages tree generation for each identified possible event is presented that potentially can lead to the system availability loss. An example is given, illustrating the methodology application that gives the possibility to choose the optimal software testing strategy.

  20. Core damage risk indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to show a method for the fast recalculation of the PSA. To avoid the information loose, it is necessary to simplify the PSA models, or at least reorganize them. The method, introduced in this document, require that preparation, so we try to show, how to do that. This document is an introduction. This is the starting point of the work related to the development of the risk indicators. In the future, with the application of this method, we are going to show an everyday use of the PSA results to produce the indicators of the core damage risk. There are two different indicators of the plant safety performance, related to the core damage risk. The first is the core damage frequency indicator (CDFI), and the second is the core damage probability indicator (CDPI). Of course, we cannot describe all of the possible ways to use these indicators, rather we will try to introduce the requirements to establish such an indicator system and the calculation process

  1. Application of crowdsourced hail data and damage information for hail risk assessment in the province of Styria, Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tani, Satyanarayana; Rechberger, Andreas; Süsser Rechberger, Barbara; Teschl, Reinhard; Paulitsch, Helmut

    2017-04-01

    Hail storm damage is a major concern to the farmers in the province of Styria, Austria. Each year severe hail storms are causing damages to crops, resulting in losses of millions of euros. High spatial and timely ground truth information of the hail event and crop damage measurements are essential for better hail risk assessment. Usually, hail pad networks and visual damage surveys are used to collect the hail data and corresponding damage information. However, these hail pad networks are expensive and need laborious maintenance. The traditional crop damage assessment approaches are very labour-intensive and time-consuming. The advancements in information and communication technology (ICT) and the power of citizen based crowdsourcing data, will help to overcome these problems and ultimately provide a platform for data collection. A user-friendly and bilingual web interface was developed to collect hail data and crop damage information in the province of Styria, Austria. The dynamic web interface was developed using HTML5, JavaScript, and PHP7 combined with a MySQL database back-end. OpenStreetMap was integrated into the web interface and tile server optimised for an easy identification of geolocation information. The user needs an internet connection to transfer the data through smartphone or computer. Crowdsourced data will be quality tested and evaluated with 3D single polarisation C-band weather radar data to remove potential false reports. Further, the relationship between the reported hail events and radar-based hail detection algorithms (Waldvogel and Auer) and derived hail signature information intended for crop hail risk assessment will be investigated. The details about the web interface tool, application and verification methods to collect, analyse, and integrate different data sets are given. Further, the high spatial risk assessment information is communicated to support risk management policy.

  2. Risk assessment of cadmium-contaminated soil on plant DNA damage using RAPD and physiological indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Wan; Yang, Y.S.; Li, P.J.; Zhou, Q.X.; Xie, L.J.; Han, Y.P.

    2009-01-01

    Impact assessment of contaminants in soil is an important issue in environmental quality study and remediation of contaminated land. A random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) 'fingerprinting' technique was exhibited to detect genotoxin-induced DNA damage of plants from heavy metal contaminated soil. This study compared the effects occurring at molecular and population levels in barley seedlings exposed to cadmium (Cd) contamination in soil. Results indicate that reduction of root growth and increase of total soluble protein level in the root tips of barley seedlings occurred with the ascending Cd concentrations. For the RAPD analyses, nine 10-base pair (bp) random RAPD primers (decamers) with 60-70% GC content were found to produce unique polymorphic band patterns and subsequently were used to produce a total of 129 RAPD fragments of 144-2639 base pair in molecular size in the root tips of control seedlings. Results produced from nine primers indicate that the changes occurring in RAPD profiles of the root tips following Cd treatment included alterations in band intensity as well as gain or loss of bands compared with the control seedlings. New amplified fragments at molecular size from approximately 154 to 2245 bp appeared almost for 10, 20 and 40 mg L -1 Cd with 9 primers (one-four new polymerase chain reaction, (PCR) products), and the number of missing bands enhanced with the increasing Cd concentration for nine primers. These results suggest that genomic template stability reflecting changes in RAPD profiles were significantly affected and it compared favourably with the traditional indices such as growth and soluble protein level at the above Cd concentrations. The DNA polymorphisms detected by RAPD can be applied as a suitable biomarker assay for detection of the genotoxic effects of Cd stress in soil on plants. As a tool in risk assessment the RAPD assay can be used in characterisation of Cd hazard in soil

  3. Urban seismic risk assessment: statistical repair cost data and probable structural losses based on damage scenario—correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Baltzopoulou, Aikaterini D.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

    2016-06-01

    The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a g/ a o, where a g is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a o is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor.

  4. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change...... adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost...... of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift...

  5. Natural resource damage assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seddelmeyer, J.

    1991-01-01

    The assessment and collection of natural resource damages from petroleum and chemical companies unfortunate enough to have injured publicly owned natural resources is perhaps the most rapidly expanding area of environmental liability. The idea of recovering for injury to publicly owned natural resources is an extension of traditional common law tort concepts under which a person who negligently injures another or his property is called upon to compensate the injured party. Normally, once liability has been established, it is a fairly straightforward matter to calculate the various elements of loss, such as the cost to repair or replace damaged property, or medical expenses, and lost income. More difficult questions, such as the amount to be awarded for pain and suffering or emotional distress, are left to the jury, although courts limit the circumstances in which the jury is permitted to award such damages

  6. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Skovgård Olsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift in the damage costs as a function of the return period. The shift occurs approximately at the 10 year return period and can perhaps be related to the design criteria for sewer systems. Further, it was tested if the EAD estimation could be simplified by assuming a single unit cost per flooded area. The results indicate that within each catchment this may be a feasible approach. However the unit costs varies substantially between different case study areas. Hence it is not feasible to develop unit costs that can be used to calculate EAD, most likely because the urban landscape is too heterogeneous.

  7. Application of the Integrated Safety Assessment methodology to safety margins. Dynamic Event Trees, Damage Domains and Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibánez, L.; Hortal, J.; Queral, C.; Gómez-Magán, J.; Sánchez-Perea, M.; Fernández, I.; Meléndez, E.; Expósito, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.; Gil, J.; Marrao, H.; Villalba-Jabonero, E.

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, has been applied to an analysis of Zion NPP for sequences with Loss of the Component Cooling Water System (CCWS). The ISA methodology proposal starts from the unfolding of the Dynamic Event Tree (DET). Results from this first step allow assessing the sequence delineation of standard Probabilistic Safety Analysis results. For some sequences of interest of the outlined DET, ISA then identifies the Damage Domain (DD). This is the region of uncertain times and/or parameters where a safety limit is exceeded, which indicates the occurrence of certain damage situation. This paper illustrates application of this concept obtained simulating sequences with MAAP and with TRACE. From information of simulation results of sequence transients belonging to the DD and the time-density probability distributions of the manual actions and of occurrence of stochastic phenomena, ISA integrates the dynamic reliability equations proposed to obtain the sequence contribution to the global Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF). Reported results show a slight increase in the DEF for sequences investigated following a power uprate from 100% to 110%. This demonstrates the potential use of the method to help in the assessment of design modifications. - Highlights: • This paper illustrates an application of the ISA methodology to safety margins. • Dynamic Event Trees are useful tool for verifying the standard PSA Event Trees. • The ISA methodology takes into account the uncertainties in human action times. • The ISA methodology shows the Damage Exceedance Frequency increase in power uprates.

  8. Experimental Shock Damage Risk Assessment for New Generation TAS-B Plasmic Propulsion Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, J.; De Fruytier, C.

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents the methodology and the results of the shock test campaign conducted by TAS-B to qualify the PPU Mk2 unit in regards of increased shock levels.This unit supplies and controls two Plasma Thrusters used for satellite orbit keeping and attitude control. The PPU Mk2 unit mechanical design is based on a modular architecture. The different modules are mounted on a baseplate insuring thermal spreading and improved equipment flatness. The unit dimensions are 390 x 190 x 190 mm3 for a total mass of 11.5 kg.The PPU Mk2 contains several components sensitive to shock like specific inductors, transformers and relays. Due to an increasing of the shock specification in regards of the previous generation of PPU, it has been proposed to assess the good withstanding of these components and in order to mitigate the risks on the Qualification Model, a preliminary shock test has been performed on a Structural Model. This model is fully representative of the flight equipment in terms of mechanical interfaces and has been designed to have the same mechanical behaviour (same mass and main modes). Critical components have been embedded in this structural model in order to test their shock withstanding. Preliminary to this Structural Model, qualification at sensitive components levels has been performed through vibrations, shocks (half-sine) and thermal cycling. Evolution of the electrical main parameters has been followed to detect any degradation of the performance during this test campaigns.Then, the structural model has been instrumented to acquire the global behaviour of the equipment. Success criteria have been defined concerning mechanical behaviour before and after shocks, admissible electrical variations, visual inspections.After calibration phasis of the test bench, the shock test of the PPU Mk2 SM has been successfully conducted. The good test results allowed applying these shock levels confidently on the PPU Mk2 EQM model.

  9. Liver Damage Risk Assessment Study in Workers Occupationally Exposed to E-waste in Benin City, South-South Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaretin God Igaro Igaro

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available    Large volumes of mostly irreparable electronic waste (e-waste are shipped to Africa on a monthly basis, of which Nigeria receives the largest share. E-waste management practices in Nigeria have remained completely primitive until date; and e-waste workers have little or no occupational safety knowledge and devices. The thousands of chemicals in e-waste have been reported to be toxic to human health in any degree of exposure. The present study has assessed the risk of liver damage in workers occupationally exposed to e-waste in Benin City, South-south Nigeria in 2014. Serum activities of liver enzymes [alanine aminotransferase (ALT, aspartate aminotransferase (AST, gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP]; and levels albumin (ALB, total bilirubin (T/Bil and conjugated bilirubin (C/Bil were determined using standard colorimetric methods. Serum Alpha fetoprotein (AFP was determined using ELISA in Nigerian e-waste workers (n=63 and in age-matched unexposed participants (n=41 in Benin City. The results showed significantly raised activities of enzymatic biomarkers of liver damage (ALT, AST, ALP and GGT in the e-waste group compared with the unexposed participants. There was no significant difference in the levels of ALB, T/Bil and C/Bil between exposed and unexposed participants. AFP levels in e-waste workers (3.56 ± 0.34 ng/mL were significantly different compared with the unexposed group (2.14 ± 0.80 ng/mL (P< 0.045. The significantly elevated cancer risk biomarker (AFP and the enzymatic biomarkers of liver damage observed in the Nigerian e-waste workers studied may be associated with occupational exposure to known carcinogens and hepatotoxic metals in e-waste. 

  10. Indirect assessment of economic damages from the Prestige oil spill: consequences for liability and risk prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garza, María Dolores; Prada, Albino; Varela, Manuel; Rodríguez, María Xosé Vázquez

    2009-03-01

    The social losses arising from the Prestige oil spill exceed the compensation granted under the IOPC (International Oil Pollution Compensation) system, with losses estimated at 15 times more than the applicable limit of compensations. This is far above the level of costs for which those responsible for hydrocarbons spills are liable. The highest market losses correspond to sectors of extraction, elaboration and commercialisation of seafood. However, damages to non-commercial natural resources could constitute an outstanding group of losses for which further primary data are needed: these losses would only be compensable under the current system by means of a refund for cleaning and restoration costs. Results show that, in Europe, the responsibility for oil spills in maritime transport is limited and unclear. The consequence of this is net social losses from recurrent oil spills and internationally accepted incentives for risky strategies in the marine transport of hydrocarbons.

  11. Risk assessment of maize damage by wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) as the first step in implementing IPM and in reducing the environmental impact of soil insecticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlan, L; Contiero, B; Chiarini, F; Colauzzi, M; Sartori, E; Benvegnù, I; Fracasso, F; Giandon, P

    2017-01-01

    A survey of maize fields was conducted in northeast Italy from 1986 to 2014, resulting in a dataset of 1296 records including information on wireworm damage to maize, plant-attacking species, agronomic characteristics, landscape and climate. Three wireworm species, Agriotes brevis Candeze, A. sordidus Illiger and A. ustulatus Schäller, were identified as the dominant pest species in maize fields. Over the 29-year period surveyed, no yield reduction was observed when wireworm plant damage was below 15 % of the stand. A preliminary univariate analysis of risk assessment was applied to identify the main factors influencing the occurrence of damage. A multifactorial model was then applied by using the significant factors identified. This model allowed the research to highlight the strongest factors and to analyse how the main factors together influenced damage risk. The strongest factors were: A. brevis as prevalent damaging species, soil organic matter content >5 %, rotation including meadows and/or double crops, A. sordidus as prevalent damaging species, and surrounding landscape mainly meadows, uncultivated grass and double crops. The multifactorial model also showed how the simultaneous occurrence of two or more of the aforementioned risk factors can conspicuously increase the risk of wireworm damage to maize crops, while the probability of damage to a field with no-risk factors is always low (<1 %). These results make it possible to draw risk maps to identify low-risk and high-risk areas, a first step in implementing bespoke IPM procedures in an attempt to reduce the impact of soil insecticides significantly.

  12. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  13. Changes in subclinical organ damage vs. in Framingham risk score for assessing cardiovascular risk reduction during continued antihypertensive treatment: a LIFE substudy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Michael H; Wachtell, Kristian; Ibsen, Hans

    2011-01-01

    To investigate whether in-treatment measurements of subclinical organ damage (SOD) assessed by elevated urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) or electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy improved the prediction of the composite cardiovascular endpoint of cardiovascular death, nonfatal...

  14. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  15. Improving Flood Damage Assessment Models in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amadio, M.; Mysiak, J.; Carrera, L.; Koks, E.

    2015-12-01

    The use of Stage-Damage Curve (SDC) models is prevalent in ex-ante assessments of flood risk. To assess the potential damage of a flood event, SDCs describe a relation between water depth and the associated potential economic damage over land use. This relation is normally developed and calibrated through site-specific analysis based on ex-post damage observations. In some cases (e.g. Italy) SDCs are transferred from other countries, undermining the accuracy and reliability of simulation results. Against this background, we developed a refined SDC model for Northern Italy, underpinned by damage compensation records from a recent flood event. Our analysis considers both damage to physical assets and production losses from business interruptions. While the first is calculated based on land use information, production losses are measured through the spatial distribution of Gross Value Added (GVA). An additional component of the model assesses crop-specific agricultural losses as a function of flood seasonality. Our results show an overestimation of asset damage from non-calibrated SDC values up to a factor of 4.5 for tested land use categories. Furthermore, we estimate that production losses amount to around 6 per cent of the annual GVA. Also, maximum yield losses are less than a half of the amount predicted by the standard SDC methods.

  16. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  17. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  18. Assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among adult patients with primary hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital, Kenya: a criteria-based clinical audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwita, Clifford Chacha; Akello, Walter; Sisenda, Gloria; Ogoti, Evans; Tivey, David; Munn, Zachary; Mbogo, David

    2013-06-01

    Appropriate management of hypertension reduces the risk of death from stroke and cardiac disease and includes routine assessment for target organ damage and estimation of cardiovascular risk. However, implementation of evidence-based hypertension management guidelines is unsatisfactory. We explore the use of audit and feedback as a quality improvement (QI) strategy for reducing the knowledge practice gap in hypertension care in a resource poor setting. The aim of this study is to determine the level of compliance to evidence-based guidelines on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among patients with hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital in central Kenya and to implement best practice with regard to evidence utilisation among clinicians in the hospital. A retrospective clinical audit done in three phases spread over 5 months. Phase one involved identifying five audit criteria on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage in patients with hypertension and conducting a baseline audit in which compliance to audit criteria, blood pressure control and drug prescription practices were assessed. Phase two involved identifying barriers to compliance to audit criteria and strategies to overcoming these barriers. The third phase was a follow-up audit. There was no use of a cardiovascular risk assessment tool in both audits (0% vs. 0%; P = 1.00). Testing urine for haematuria and proteinuria reduced from 13% to 8% (P = 0.230) while taking a blood sample for measuring blood glucose, electrolytes and creatinine levels improved from 11% to 17% (P = 0.401). Performance of fundoscopy and electrocardiography remained unchanged at 2% and 8%, respectively (P = 0.886 and P = 0.898). High patient load was identified as the biggest barrier to implementation of best practice. Blood pressure control improved from 33% to 70% (P ≤ 0.001), whereas the proportion of patients on two or more recommended antihypertensive drugs rose

  19. Economic valuation of acidic deposition damages: Preliminary results from the 1985 NAPAP [National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program] damage assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, J.M.; Darwin, R.F.; Nesse, R.J.

    1985-01-01

    This paper identifies methods used to evaluate the economic damages of acid deposition in the 1985 Damage Assessment being coordinated by the National Acid Precipitation Program. It also presents the preliminary estimates of economic damages for the Assessment. Economic damages are estimated for four effect areas: commercial agriculture and forests, recreational fishing and selected types of materials. In all but the last area, methods are used which incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and firms or simulated physical damages to resources at risk. The preliminary nature of the estimated damages in each area is emphasized. Over all, the damage estimates should be interpreted with caution. 44 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

  20. Statistical model for assessing the risk of hail damage to any ground installation. Technical report, June 1978-March 1979

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, M; Armstrong, P R

    1979-09-01

    This report describes a statistical model which has been developed to determine the risk of damage by large hail to any ground installation (such as a solar flat plate collector). The model is based on data for the number of haildays per year, hailstone size distribution, and storm severity (expressed in number of hailstones per square meter per storm). Other than parameters derived from the raw meteorological data available, the parameters of the model are the number of years of surface exposure and the exposure area size. The end result is the probability of a hailstone of a given size striking a given surface area in a given number of years. The maximum probable hailstone size is used as a convenient index of hail risk. The data upon which to base a prediction model are sparse at this time, covering few geographic locations; much of the information available is deficient in sampling consistency and/or sample size. For this reason, this report fully documents the derivation and use of the model for future applications, when more and better data are collected. The FORTRAN source code to calculate the risk model digitally is included in APPENDIX D. This model improves on previous work in: (1) the use of more thorough statistical procedures and a more rigorous accounting of storm severity; (2) a more thorough investigation into the two probability density distributions commonly used (Poisson and negative binomial) to describe hailday frequencies, and (3) an attempt to define more rigorously the distribution of hailstone sizes. A sensitivity analysis was performed and conclusions are drawn from the results.

  1. Subclinical organ damage and cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Olsen, Michael H

    2010-01-01

    Traditional cardiovascular risk factors have poor prognostic value for individuals and screening for subclinical organ damage has been recommended in hypertension in recent guidelines. The aim of this review was to investigate the clinical impact of the additive prognostic information provided...... by measuring subclinical organ damage. We have (i) reviewed recent studies linking markers of subclinical organ damage in the heart, blood vessels and kidney to cardiovascular risk; (ii) discussed the evidence for improvement in cardiovascular risk prediction using markers of subclinical organ damage; (iii...

  2. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  3. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  4. A proposed method to assess the damage risk of future climate change to museum objects in historic buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbregts, Z.; Kramer, R.P.; Martens, M.H.J.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.

    2012-01-01

    Future climate change is expected to have a critical effect on valuable museum collections that are housed in historic buildings. Changes of the indoor environment in the building affect the microclimate around the museum objects and may cause damage to the collection. In this study, a method is

  5. Assessing damage cost estimation of urban pluvial flood risk as a mean of improving climate change adaptations investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how it will be affected by climate change and how much can be gained by implementing adaptation...... measures. This study investigates three different methods for estimating the EAD based on a loglinear relation between the damage costs and the return periods, one of which has been used in previous studies. The results show with the increased amount of data points there appears to be a shift in the log......-linear relation which could be contributed by the Danish design standards for drainage systems. Three different methods for estimating the EAD were tested and the choice of method is less important than accounting for the log-linear shift. This then also means that the statistical approximation of the EAD used...

  6. DNA Damage Signals and Space Radiation Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Space radiation is comprised of high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei and protons. The initial DNA damage from HZE nuclei is qualitatively different from X-rays or gamma rays due to the clustering of damage sites which increases their complexity. Clustering of DNA damage occurs on several scales. First there is clustering of single strand breaks (SSB), double strand breaks (DSB), and base damage within a few to several hundred base pairs (bp). A second form of damage clustering occurs on the scale of a few kbp where several DSB?s may be induced by single HZE nuclei. These forms of damage clusters do not occur at low to moderate doses of X-rays or gamma rays thus presenting new challenges to DNA repair systems. We review current knowledge of differences that occur in DNA repair pathways for different types of radiation and possible relationships to mutations, chromosomal aberrations and cancer risks.

  7. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  8. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  9. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  10. Natural resource damage assessments: The second generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luthi, R.; Burlington, L.; Reinharz, E.; Shutler, S.

    1993-01-01

    The Damage Assessment Regulations Team (DART), Office of General Counsel, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has focused on developing natural resource damage assessment regulations for oil pollution in navigable waters. These procedures may lower the transaction costs of assessments, encourage joint cooperative assessments, simplify most assessments and provide technical guidance for conducting assessments. DART is developing regulations for the assessment of damages due to injuries related to oil spills under the Oil pollution Act of 1990. These regulations will involve coordination, restoration and economic valuation. NOAA encourages federal, state, tribal and foreign trustees, to develop prespill plans. Coordination with response agencies assures protection of important natural resources. The regulations provide an open record, which becomes the basis for judicial review. Various methods being developed to assess damages for injuries to natural resources include: compensation formulas for spills under 50,000 gallons of oil, the Type A model, expedited damage assessment (EDA) procedures, and comprehensive damage assessment (CDA) procedures which can be used for spills of various sizes. These procedures provide trustees with a choice for assessing natural resource damages to each oil spill. NOAA is emphasizing the importance of restoration. Restoration plans will define project goals and objectives, establish procedures and methods for site restoration, and define the approach based on sound science. Finally, numerous economic methods are identified to calculate the lost or diminished use as passive use of the affected resources

  11. Assessing and Managing Natural Resource Damages: Continuing Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnthouse, Lawrence W.; Stahl, Ralph G.

    2017-05-01

    In a 2002 paper, we discussed the technical challenges associated with quantifying natural resource injuries, service losses and damages, and suggested some actions that might help to overcome them. An important suggestion was to consider using some of the approaches in ecological risk assessment to help evaluate potential natural resource injuries, and ultimately in some cases to help translate those injuries into natural resource service loss. This was based on the observation that ecological risk assessment and natural resource damage assessments use much of the same types of data, but at that time the experience base with ecological risk assessment was greater than for natural resource damage assessments. We also discussed some of the issues in applying the then current Department of Interior natural resource damage assessments regulations. Since our 2002 publication the scientific literature, relevant regulations, the global context and more have changed. In the current paper we focus on the technical and regulatory changes in natural resource damage assessments practice since 2002, and use recent reports and publications to illustrate those changes and identify new directions in natural resource damage assessments.

  12. Collision Risk and Damage after Collision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Hansen, Peter Friis; Nielsen, Lars Peter

    1996-01-01

    The paper presents a new and complete procedure for calculation of ship-ship collision rates on specific routes and the hull damage caused by such collisions.The procedure is applied to analysis of collision risks for Ro-Ro pasenger vessels. Given a collision the spatial probability distribution ...

  13. Measurement of damage in systemic vasculitis: a comparison of the Vasculitis Damage Index with the Combined Damage Assessment Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suppiah, Ravi; Flossman, Oliver; Mukhtyar, Chetan

    2011-01-01

    To compare the Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI) with the Combined Damage Assessment Index (CDA) as measures of damage from vasculitis.......To compare the Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI) with the Combined Damage Assessment Index (CDA) as measures of damage from vasculitis....

  14. World Health Organization cardiovascular risk stratification and target organ damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piskorz, D; Bongarzoni, L; Citta, L; Citta, N; Citta, P; Keller, L; Mata, L; Tommasi, A

    2016-01-01

    Prediction charts allow treatment to be targeted according to simple markers of cardiovascular risk; many algorithms do not recommend screening asymptomatic target organ damage which could change dramatically the assessment. To demonstrate that target organ damage is present in low cardiovascular risk hypertensive patients and it is more frequent and severe as global cardiovascular risk increases. Consecutive hypertensive patients treated at a single Latin American center. Cardiovascular risk stratified according to 2013 WHO/ISH risk prediction chart America B. Left ventricular mass assessed by Devereux method, left ventricular hypertrophy considered >95g/m(2) in women and >115g/m(2) in men. Transmitral diastolic peak early flow velocity to average septal/lateral peak early diastolic relaxation velocity (E/e' ratio) measured cut off value >13. Systolic function assessed by tissue Doppler average interventricular septum/lateral wall mitral annulus rate systolic excursion (s wave). A total of 292 patients were included of whom 159 patients (54.5%) had cardiovascular risk of 20%. Left ventricular hypertrophy was detected in 17.6% low risk patients, 27.8% in medium risk and 23.3% in high risk (p<0.05), abnormal E/e' ratio was found in 13.8%, 31.1% and 27.9%, respectively (p<0.05). Mean s wave was 8.03+8, 8.1+9 and 8.7+1cm/s for low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively (p<0.025). Target organ damage is more frequent and severe in high risk; one over four subjects was misclassified due to the presence of asymptomatic target organ damage. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  15. Assessment of DNA damage in ceramic workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anlar, Hatice Gul; Taner, Gokce; Bacanli, Merve; Iritas, Servet; Kurt, Turker; Tutkun, Engin; Yilmaz, Omer Hinc; Basaran, Nursen

    2018-02-24

    It is known that ceramic workers are potentially exposed to complex mixture of chemicals such as silica, inorganic lead, lime, beryllium and aluminum that can be associated with an increased risk of several diseases. All operations in the ceramic industries such as mixing, moulding, casting, shaking out and finishing jobs, have been associated with the higher exposure levels and in most of the silica-related industries, average overall exposure exceeded permissible exposure levels for respirable crystalline silica. The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible genotoxic damage in ceramic workers exposed to complex mixture of chemicals mainly crystalline silica. For this purpose, the blood and buccal epithelial cell samples were taken from the ceramic workers (n = 99) and their controls (n = 81). The genotoxicity was assessed by the alkaline comet assay in isolated lymphocytes and whole blood. Micronucleus (MN), binucleated (BN), pyknotic (PYC), condensed chromatin (CC), karyolytic (KYL), karyorrhectic (KHC) and nuclear bud (NBUD) frequencies in buccal epithelial cells and plasma 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodG) levels were also evaluated. In the study, 38 workers were diagnosed with silicosis, 9 workers were suspected to have silicosis, whereas 52 workers were found to be healthy. DNA damage in blood and lymphocytes; MN, CC + KHC, PYC frequencies in buccal epithelial cells and 8-oxodG levels in plasma were increased in workers compared to their controls. These results showed that occupational chemical mixture exposure in ceramic industry may cause genotoxic damage that can lead to important health problems in the workers.

  16. Assessing smoke damage. First report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andre, F; Hartig, W

    1957-06-01

    Briefly described are experiments comparing air pollution tests with rags impregnated with BaO, hung both in the tree tops and below the canopy of Spruce stands, with analyses of needles collected at the same points. S content of the atmosphere (expressed in mg H/sub 2/SO/sub 4/ content of the rags) was, at equal distances, markedly greater above than below the closed canopy, suggesting that the tallest trees would suffer most. While absolute S content of needles (also expressed in mg H/sub 2/SO/sub 4/) gave no indication of smoke damage, relative differences in S content between 1-year-old and 5-year-old needles proved to be a useful indication.

  17. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  18. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  19. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  20. Seismic risk assessment of building based on damaged database of 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake; Hyogoken nanbu jishin no hisai database wo mochiita kenchikubutsu no jishin risk hyoka ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suwa, H.; Nobata, A.; Seki, M. [Obayashi Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2000-01-10

    The objective of this paper is to evaluate a vulnerability function and a repair cost in terms of each structural damage level based on the damaged database of the 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe is calculated through the analytical results. As a result, the following are verified : 1. The expectation of vulnerability function, in which peak ground acceleration is taken for seismic intensity, is about 550 cm/s{sup 2} for minor damage, about 700 cm/s{sup 2} for moderate damage, and about 950 cm/s{sup 2} for major damage respectively. However, the coefficient of variation (C. O. V. ) is about 0.5 for all damage levels. 2. The expectation of repair cost per square meter is about 29000 yen for minor damage, about 60000 yen for moderate damage, and about 64000 yen for major damage respectively. However, the variation is very large, for example, the C. O. V. for repair cost varies from 1.2 to 1.6. 3. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe, that is normalized by new construction cost, is about three percent on condition that the design lifetime is assumed to be 50 years. (author)

  1. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  2. Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

    2014-07-01

    The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

  3. "Fair" Mathematics in Assessing Delictual Damages | Steynberg ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the ...

  4. Improved airfield damage assessment System (IADAS) capstone

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    that the Air Force Civil Engineer career field is prepared for the future of expeditionary warfare by integrating the latest technology into TTPs...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA SYSTEMS ENGINEERING CAPSTONE PROJECT REPORT Approved for public release...alternatives for improving the timeliness of airfield damage assessment. The systems engineering methods used included a morphological box and Pugh matrix

  5. "Fair" Mathematics in Assessing Delictual Damages

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    A related aspect of the technique of assessing damages is this one: it is .... never, within the range of my knowledge and experience, been the approach .... cannot probably occur; in truth things either happened or did not happen at all. ..... added together in such a way that the career of the plaintiff is individualised as far as.

  6. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  7. Automatic characterization of loose parts impact damage risk parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, S.W.; Phillips, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    Loose parts caught in the high-velocity flows of the reactor coolant fluid strike against nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) components and can cause significant damage. Loose parts monitor systems (LPMS) have been available for years to detect metal-to-metal impacts. Once detected, however, an assessment of the damage risk potential for leaving the part in the system versus shutting it down and removing the part must be made. The principal parameters used in the damage risk assessment are time delays between the first and subsequent sensor indications (used to assess the impact location) and a correlation between the waveform and the impact energy of the part (how hard the part impacted). These parameters are not well suited to simple automatic techniques. The task has historically been performed by loose parts diagnostic experts who base much of their evaluation on experience and subjective interpretation of impact data waveforms. Three of the principal goals in developing the Babcock and Wilcox (B and W) LPMS-III were (a) to develop an accurate automatic assessment for the time delays, (b) to develop an automatic estimate of the impact energy, and (c) to present the data in a meaningful manner to the operator

  8. Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

  9. Personal samplers of bioavailable pesticides integrated with a hair follicle assay of DNA damage to assess environmental exposures and their associated risks in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidi, Pierre-Alexandre; Anderson, Kim A; Chen, Haiying; Anderson, Rebecca; Salvador-Moreno, Naike; Mora, Dana C; Poutasse, Carolyn; Laurienti, Paul J; Daniel, Stephanie S; Arcury, Thomas A

    2017-10-01

    Agriculture in the United States employs youth ages ten and older in work environments with high pesticide levels. Younger children in rural areas may also be affected by indirect pesticide exposures. The long-term effects of pesticides on health and development are difficult to assess and poorly understood. Yet, epidemiologic studies suggest associations with cancer as well as cognitive deficits. We report a practical and cost-effective approach to assess environmental pesticide exposures and their biological consequences in children. Our approach combines silicone wristband personal samplers and DNA damage quantification from hair follicles, and was tested as part of a community-based participatory research (CBPR) project involving ten Latino children from farmworker households in North Carolina. Our study documents high acceptance among Latino children and their caregivers of these noninvasive sampling methods. The personal samplers detected organophosphates, organochlorines, and pyrethroids in the majority of the participants (70%, 90%, 80%, respectively). Pesticides were detected in all participant samplers, with an average of 6.2±2.4 detections/participant sampler. DNA damage in epithelial cells from the sheath and bulb of plucked hairs follicles was quantified by immunostaining 53BP1-labled DNA repair foci. This method is sensitive, as shown by dose response analyses to γ radiations where the lowest dose tested (0.1Gy) led to significant increased 53BP1 foci density. Immunolabeling of DNA repair foci has significant advantages over the comet assay in that specific regions of the follicles can be analyzed. In this cohort of child participants, significant association was found between the number of pesticide detections and DNA damage in the papilla region of the hairs. We anticipate that this monitoring approach of bioavailable pesticides and genotoxicity will enhance our knowledge of the biological effects of pesticides to guide education programs and

  10. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  11. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  12. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  13. Ex post damage assessment: an Italian experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinari, D.; Menoni, S.; Aronica, G. T.; Ballio, F.; Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Minucci, G.

    2014-04-01

    In recent years, awareness of a need for more effective disaster data collection, storage, and sharing of analyses has developed in many parts of the world. In line with this advance, Italian local authorities have expressed the need for enhanced methods and procedures for post-event damage assessment in order to obtain data that can serve numerous purposes: to create a reliable and consistent database on the basis of which damage models can be defined or validated; and to supply a comprehensive scenario of flooding impacts according to which priorities can be identified during the emergency and recovery phase, and the compensation due to citizens from insurers or local authorities can be established. This paper studies this context, and describes ongoing activities in the Umbria and Sicily regions of Italy intended to identifying new tools and procedures for flood damage data surveys and storage in the aftermath of floods. In the first part of the paper, the current procedures for data gathering in Italy are analysed. The analysis shows that the available knowledge does not enable the definition or validation of damage curves, as information is poor, fragmented, and inconsistent. A new procedure for data collection and storage is therefore proposed. The entire analysis was carried out at a local level for the residential and commercial sectors only. The objective of the next steps for the research in the short term will be (i) to extend the procedure to other types of damage, and (ii) to make the procedure operational with the Italian Civil Protection system. The long-term aim is to develop specific depth-damage curves for Italian contexts.

  14. "Fair" mathematics in assessing delictual damages

    OpenAIRE

    Steynberg, L

    2011-01-01

    In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the actuary is to guide the court in the calculations to be made. Relying on its wide judicial discretion the court will have the final say regarding the correct...

  15. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  16. Estimation of embrittlement damage risk at neutron embrittled vessel constructions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staevski, K.; Madzharov, D.; Detistov, P.; Petrova, T.

    1998-01-01

    In this work a methodology based on Damage mechanics criteria is proposed. This methodology serves for probability assessment of the brittle damage risk for the neutron embrittled vessel elements. The developed methodology is realised in RISK code and has been verified on the base of tough reliability of the pressure vessel, 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2. This investigation has been carried out at the given parameters of the possible defects on the vessel's weld 4 taking into account requirements of the western and Russian standards. The obtained values for ductile to brittle transition temperatures, defining the equipment life-time in the presence of maximal defect, are in good consistence with the experimentally determined ones. The analyses of results show that the pressure vessel of 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2 has got a high level of reliability from brittle damage risk point of view and that the western standards give more conservative evaluation. On the bases of the results a conclusion is made that the developed methodology enables analysing the influence of possible defects in the neutron embrittled elements on their to reliability and their remained life-time

  17. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  18. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  19. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  20. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  1. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  2. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  3. "Fair" Mathematics in Assessing Delictual Damages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L Steynberg

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the actuary is to guide the court in the calculations to be made. Relying on its wide judicial discretion the court will have the final say regarding the correctness of the assumptions on which these calculations are based. The court should give detailed reasons if any assumptions or parts of the calculations made by the actuary are rejected. It should preferably refrain from making its own calculations if an actuary is involved and should rather instruct the actuary to do recalculations if necessary. It does, however, fall within the wide discretion of the court to make a general contingency adjustment after the basic calculations have been accepted. In assessing delictual damages it is the duty of the court to ensure that both objective and subjective factors are considered in such a manner that the assessment may be regarded as an application of "fair" mathematics.

  4. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  5. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  6. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  7. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  8. The second generation of natural resource damage assessments: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luthi, R.B.; Burlington, L.B.; Reinharz, E.; Shutler, S.K.

    1993-01-01

    The Damage Assessment Regulations Team (DART), under the Office of General Counsel of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has centered its efforts on developing natural resource damage assessment regulations for oil pollution in navigable waters. These procedures will likely lower the costs associated with damage assessments, encourage joint cooperative assessments and simplify most assessments. The DART team of NOAA is developing new regulations for the assessment of damages due to injuries related to oil spills under the Oil Pollution Act of 1990. These regulations will involve coordination, restoration, and economic valuation. Various methods are currently being developed to assess damages for injuries to natural resources. The proposed means include: compensation tables for spills under 50,000 gallons, Type A model, expedited damage assessment (EDA) procedures, and comprehensive procedures. They are being developed to provide trustees with a choice for assessing natural resource damages for each oil spill

  9. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  10. Contribution of the subjective factor to assessment of damage to health caused by the major risk factors at territories contaminated with radionuclides a nd clean territories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knizhnikov, V.A.; Shandala, N.K.; Pukhovskij, N.N.; Petukhova, Eh.V.

    1996-01-01

    The study was aimed at elucidation of the subjective opinion of the population about risk factors and the role of this opinion as a pathogenic factor. Questionnaires were distributed among 2 groups (n=61 and n=65) living at territories contaminated after the accident (town of Novozybkov) and at clean control territories (town of Dyatkov) the groups were matches for age, sex, and educational level. The respondents were to rank twelve possible sources leading to untimely death in the order of their decreasing hazard for human and to express their attitude to 14 diseases. The results helped define the mean index of leaf, which should be taken into consideration when assessing the hazards of living at territories contaminated with radionuclides. It is noteworthy that fear of diseases is a more sensitive characteristic than fear of this or that unfavorable factor. The index of fear is 1.4 times higher in a contaminated region than in the control one [ru

  11. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  12. Risk based decision aid for damage control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meesters, J.L.; Keijer, W.; Gillis, M.P.W.

    2003-01-01

    The current trend in ship design is to reduce the crew. Special attention should be paid to damage control, which is a labour intensive task. Having less crew members implies that more tasks have to be automated. It also means a reduction of the available 'human sensors’, which leads to difficulties

  13. People with Increased Risk of Eye Damage from UV Light

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... With Increased Risk of Eye Damage from UV Light Leer en Español: Algunas Personas Están en Mayor Riesgo de Sufrir Daño Ocular por los Rayos UV Written By: Shirley Dang Apr. 30, 2014 Everyone of any age and any degree of skin pigmentation is susceptible to UV damage. Children are ...

  14. Computational model for the assessment of oil spill damages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seip, K L; Heiberg, A B; Brekke, K A

    1985-06-01

    A description is given of the method and the required data of a model for calculating oil spill damages. Eleven damage attributes are defined: shorelength contaminated, shore restitution time, birds dead, restitution time for three groups of birds, open sea damages-two types, damages to recreation, economy and fisheries. The model has been applied in several cases of oil pollution assessments: in an examination of alternative models for the organization of oil spill combat in Norway, in the assessment of the damages coused by a blowout at Tromsoeflaket and in assessing a possible increase in oil spill preparedness for Svalbard. 56 references.

  15. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  16. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  17. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  18. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  19. Reconstructing patterns of temperature, phenology, and frost damage over 124 years: spring damage risk is increasing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augspurger, Carol K

    2013-01-01

    Climate change, with both warmer spring temperatures and greater temperature fluctuations, has altered phenologies, possibly leading to greater risk of spring frost damage to temperate deciduous woody plants. Phenological observations of 20 woody species from 1993 to 2012 in Trelease Woods, Champaign County, Illinois, USA, were used to identify years with frost damage to vegetative and reproductive phases. Local temperature records were used in combination with the phenological observations to determine what combinations of the two were associated with damage. Finally, a long-term temperature record (1889-1992) was evaluated to determine if the frequency of frost damage has risen in recent decades. Frost Frost damage occurred in five years in the interior and in three additional years at only the forest edge. The degree of damage varied with species, life stage, tissue (vegetative or reproductive), and phenological phase. Common features associated with the occurrence of damage to interior plants were (1) a period of unusual warm temperatures in March, followed by (2) a frost event in April with a minimum temperature frost damage increased significantly, from 0.03 during 1889-1979 to 0.21 during 1980-2012. When the criteria were "softened" to frost damage events more common.

  20. Cross-Layer Damage Assessment for Cyber Situational Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Peng; Jia, Xiaoqi; Zhang, Shengzhi; Xiong, Xi; Jhi, Yoon-Chan; Bai, Kun; Li, Jason

    Damage assessment plays a very important role in securing enterprise networks and systems. Gaining good awareness about the effects and impact of cyber attack actions would enable security officers to make the right cyber defense decisions and take the right cyber defense actions. A good number of damage assessment techniques have been proposed in the literature, but they typically focus on a single abstraction level (of the software system in concern). As a result, existing damage assessment techniques and tools are still very limited in satisfying the needs of comprehensive damage assessment which should not result in any “blind spots”.

  1. Seismic damage assessment of reinforced concrete containment structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, HoHyun; Koh, Hyun-Moo; Hyun, Chang-Hun; Kim, Moon-Soo; Shin, Hyun Mock

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a procedure for assessing seismic damage of concrete containment structures using the nonlinear time-history numerical analysis. For this purpose, two kinds of damage index are introduced at finite element and structural levels. Nonlinear finite element analysis for the containment structure applies PSC shell elements using a layered approach leading to damage indices at finite element and structural levels, which are then used to assess the seismic damage of the containment structure. As an example of such seismic damage assessment, seismic damages of the containment structure of Wolsong I nuclear power plant in Korea are evaluated against 30 artificial earthquakes generated with a wide range of PGA according to US NRC regulatory guide 1.60. Structural responses and corresponding damage index according to the level of PGA and nonlinearity are investigated. It is also shown that the containment structure behaves elastically for earthquakes corresponding to or lower than DBE. (author)

  2. Causes and consequences of the sinkhole at El Trébol of Quito, Ecuador - implications for economic damage and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toulkeridis, Theofilos; Rodríguez, Fabián; Arias Jiménez, Nelson; Simón Baile, Débora; Salazar Martínez, Rodolfo; Addison, Aaron; Carreón Freyre, Dora; Mato, Fernando; Díaz Perez, Carmen

    2016-09-01

    The so-called El Trébol is a critical road interchange in Quito connecting the north and south regions of the city. In addition, it connects Quito with the highly populated Los Chillos Valley, one of the most traveled zones in the Ecuadorian capital. El Trébol was constructed in the late 1960s in order to resolve the traffic jams of the capital city and for that purpose the Machángara River was rerouted through an underground concrete box tunnel. In March 2008, the tunnel contained a high amount of discarded furniture that had been impacting the top portion of the tunnel, compromising the structural integrity. On 31 March 2008 after a heavy rainfall a sinkhole of great proportions formed in the Trébol traffic hub. In the first few minutes, the sinkhole reached an initial diameter of 30 m. The collapse continued to grow in the following days until the final dimensions of 120 m in diameter and some 40 m of depth, revealing the Machángara River at the base of the sinkhole.A state of emergency was declared. The cause of the sinkhole was a result of the lack of monitoring of the older subterranean infrastructure where trash had accumulated and damaged the concrete tunnel that channelized the Machángara River until it was worn away for a length of some 20 m, leaving behind the sinkhole and the fear of recurrence in populated areas.With the intent to understand the causes and consequences of this sinkhole event, rainfall data are shown together with hydrogeological characteristics and a view back to the recent history of sinkhole lineation or arrangement of the city of Quito. The economic impact is also emphasized, where the direct costs of the damage and the reconstruction are presented and compared to indirect costs associated with this socio-natural disaster. These analyses suggest that the costs of indirect financial damage, like time loss or delay, and subsequent higher expenses for different types of vehicles, are equivalent to many times the costs of the

  3. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  4. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  5. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  6. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  7. Damage assessment in structure from changes in static parameter ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    damage assessment methodology will be a valuable tool in timely ... of the numerical model to the physical system are prerequisites for success. Wu et al ... The objective of the present paper is to locate and assess the damage occurring at any posi- ... This method leads to the recent very popular neural network learning.

  8. Preliminary risk assessments of the small HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.

    1985-05-01

    Preliminary investment and safety risk assessments were performed for a preconceptual design of a four-module 250-MW(t) side-by-side steel-vessel pebble bed HTGR plant. Broad event spectra were analyzed involving component damage resulting in unscheduled plant outages and fission product releases resulting in offsite doses. The preliminary assessment indicates at this stage of the design that two categories of events govern the investment risk envelope: primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plate-out activity that contaminates the confinement and turbogenerator damage which involves extensive turbine blade failure. Primary coolant leaks are important contributors because associated cleanup and decontamination requirements result in longer outages that arise from other events with comparable frequencies. Turbogenerator damage is the salient low-frequency investment risk accident due to the relatively long outages being experienced in the industry. Thermal transients are unimportant investment risk contributors because pressurized core heatups cause little damage, and depressurized core heatups occur at negligible frequencies relative to the forced outage goal. These preliminary results demonstrate investment and safety risk goal compliance at this stage in the design process. Studies are continuing in order to provide valuable insights into risk-significant events to assure a balanced approach to meeting user and regulatory requirements

  9. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  10. Hurricane Harvey Building Damage Assessment Using UAV Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeom, J.; Jung, J.; Chang, A.; Choi, I.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey which was extremely destructive major hurricane struck southern Texas, U.S.A on August 25, causing catastrophic flooding and storm damages. We visited Rockport suffered severe building destruction and conducted UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) surveying for building damage assessment. UAV provides very high resolution images compared with traditional remote sensing data. In addition, prompt and cost-effective damage assessment can be performed regardless of several limitations in other remote sensing platforms such as revisit interval of satellite platforms, complicated flight plan in aerial surveying, and cloud amounts. In this study, UAV flight and GPS surveying were conducted two weeks after hurricane damage to generate an orthomosaic image and a DEM (Digital Elevation Model). 3D region growing scheme has been proposed to quantitatively estimate building damages considering building debris' elevation change and spectral difference. The result showed that the proposed method can be used for high definition building damage assessment in a time- and cost-effective way.

  11. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  13. Feral burro populations: Distribution and damage assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tiller, B.L.

    1997-12-01

    This report was prepared to document (1) regional use of the National Training Center (NTC), Fort Irwin, CA, by burros, (2)influence of available water sources for burro use, (3) burro-related damage at several NTC sensitive habitat areas, and (4) management recommendations. All work described in this report was conducted in 1996 and 1997. Roadside transects were conducted and mapped using Geographical Positioning Systems/Geographical Information Systems (GPS/GIS) to indirectly measure relative abundance of feral burros (scat per mile) and to examine the spatial relationship of burro use to permanent or semi-permanent water sources that exist on the NTC. The authors also surveyed several permanent springs for burro-related damage and mapped the impact areas using GPS/GIS to quantify the extent of damage and to provide guidance on size and extent of burro exclosures in those areas. Photographs of the spring sites were also archived and permanent photo points were established for long-term monitoring of feral burro damage areas. In addition, aquatic invertebrate data collected during another spring site study were summarized and discussed in relation to burro-related impacts on the NTC`s sensitive habitats. Several water-quality parameters were also obtained from each spring, including temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and total dissolved solids.

  14. High EDSS can predict risk for upper urinary tract damage in patients with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ineichen, Benjamin V; Schneider, Marc P; Hlavica, Martin; Hagenbuch, Niels; Linnebank, Michael; Kessler, Thomas M

    2018-04-01

    Neurogenic lower urinary tract dysfunction (NLUTD) is very common in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), and it might jeopardize renal function and thereby increase mortality. Although there are well-known urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage, no clinical prediction parameters are available. We aimed to assess clinical parameters potentially predicting urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage. A consecutive series of 141 patients with MS referred from neurologists for primary neuro-urological work-up including urodynamics were prospectively evaluated. Clinical parameters taken into account were age, sex, duration, and clinical course of MS and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Multivariate modeling revealed EDSS as a clinical parameter significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.71, p = 0.02). Using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, an EDSS of 5.0 as cutoff showed a sensitivity of 86%-87% and a specificity of 52% for at least one urodynamic risk factor for upper urinary tract damage. High EDSS is significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage and allows a risk-dependent stratification in daily neurological clinical practice to identify MS patients requiring further neuro-urological assessment and treatment.

  15. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  16. Installation Capacity Assessment of Damaged Deepwater Pipelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramasamy R.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The worldwide exploration and development of subsea and deepwater reservoirs has laid down some new and old engineering challenges to the offshore pipeline industry. This requires large D/t pipelines to be installed at water depths in the vicinity of up to 2700m. The deepwater collapse and buckle propagation event is almost unavoidable as the pipe wall thickness cannot be always determined from the codes and standards due to the limit state criteria. These codes also do not consider any fabrication imperfections and sustained damages emanating from transportation and handling. The objective of this paper is to present the Finite Element Analysis (FEA of dented pipes with D/t ratio more than 45, which is outside the applicability of current design codes, and to investigate the effects on installation capacity of these various damage sizes in terms of collapse and buckle propagation.

  17. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  18. Prevention of damage and 'residual risk' in nuclear power laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greipl, C.

    1992-01-01

    The concept of prevention of damage within the framework of nuclear power laws includes averting danger for the protection of third parties and preventing risks for the partial protection of third parties with the proviso that still a desire to use the concept 'residual risk' in addition, it should be limited, on the grounds of what can be reasonably expected, to those risks which cannot be reduced any further by the government, i.e. to risks which the public in general and third parties ('actually') must accept. In the future, questions regarding safety systems should be taken into account exclusively withing the context of 'what is necessary for protection against damage in keeping with the latest developments in science and technology' and not at the discretion of the law in denying permission according to Article 7 Paragraph 2 Atomic Energy Law. (orig.) [de

  19. Endogenous DNA Damage and Risk of Testicular Germ Cell Tumors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, M B; Sigurdson, A J; Jones, I M; Thomas, C B; Graubard, B I; Korde, L; Greene, M H; McGlynn, K A

    2008-01-18

    Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are comprised of two histologic groups, seminomas and nonseminomas. We postulated that the possible divergent pathogeneses of these histologies may be partially explained by variable endogenous DNA damage. To assess our hypothesis, we conducted a case-case analysis of seminomas and nonseminomas using the alkaline comet assay to quantify single-strand DNA breaks and alkali-labile sites. The Familial Testicular Cancer study and the U.S. Radiologic Technologists cohort provided 112 TGCT cases (51 seminomas & 61 nonseminomas). A lymphoblastoid cell line was cultured for each patient and the alkaline comet assay was used to determine four parameters: tail DNA, tail length, comet distributed moment (CDM) and Olive tail moment (OTM). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were estimated using logistic regression. Values for tail length, tail DNA, CDM and OTM were modeled as categorical variables using the 50th and 75th percentiles of the seminoma group. Tail DNA was significantly associated with nonseminoma compared to seminoma (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 3.31, 95%CI: 1.00, 10.98; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 3.71, 95%CI: 1.04, 13.20; p for trend=0.039). OTM exhibited similar, albeit statistically non-significant, risk estimates (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 2.27, 95%CI: 0.75, 6.87; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 2.40, 95%CI: 0.75, 7.71; p for trend=0.12) whereas tail length and CDM showed no association. In conclusion, the results for tail DNA and OTM indicate that endogenous DNA damage levels are higher in patients who develop nonseminoma compared with seminoma. This may partly explain the more aggressive biology and younger age-of-onset of this histologic subgroup compared with the relatively less aggressive, later-onset seminoma.

  20. Cancer risk and oxidative DNA damage in man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loft, S; Poulsen, H E

    1996-01-01

    with a mechanistically based increased risk of cancer, including Fanconi anemia, chronic hepatitis, cystic fibrosis, and various autoimmune diseases, the biomarker studies indicate an increased rate of oxidative DNA damage or in some instances deficient repair. Human studies support the experimentally based notion...

  1. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  2. Post-hurricane forest damage assessment using satellite remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Wang; J.J. Qu; X. Hao; Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf

    2010-01-01

    This study developed a rapid assessment algorithm for post-hurricane forest damage estimation using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements. The performance of five commonly used vegetation indices as post-hurricane forest damage indicators was investigated through statistical analysis. The Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) was...

  3. Spectroscopic photoacoustics for assessing ischemic kidney damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndl, Elizabeth S. L.; He, Xiaolin; Yuen, Darren A.; Kolios, Michael C.

    2018-02-01

    Ischemic reperfusion injuries (IRIs) are caused by return of blood to a tissue or organ after a period without oxygen or nutrients. Damage in the microvasculature causes an inflammatory response and heterogeneous scarring, which is associated with an increase in collagen in the extracellular matrix. Although most often associated with heart attacks and strokes, IRI also occurs when blood reperfuses a transplanted organ. Currently, monitoring for IRI is limited to biopsies, which are invasive and sample a limited area. In this work, we explored photoacoustic (PA) biomarkers of scarring. IRI events were induced in mice (n=2) by clamping the left renal artery, then re-establishing flow. At 53 days post-surgery, kidneys were saline perfused and cut in half laterally. One half was immediately imaged with a VevoX system (Fujifilm-VisualSonics, Toronto) in two near infrared ranges - 680 to 970 nm (NIR), and 1200 to 1350 nm (NIR II). The other half was decellularized and then imaged at NIR and NIR II. Regions of interest were manually identified and analyzed for each kidney. For both cellularized and decellularized samples, the PA signal ratio based on irradiation wavelengths of 715:930 nm was higher in damaged kidneys than for undamaged kidneys (p collagen in the NIR II range, while healthy kidneys did not. Collagen rich spectra were more apparent in decellularized kidneys, suggesting that in the cellularized samples, other components may be contributing to the signal. PA imaging using spectral ratios associated with collagen signatures may provide a non-invasive tool to determine areas of tissue damage due to IRIs.

  4. Assessment of outcome after severe brain damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennett, B; Bond, M

    1975-03-01

    Persisting disability after brain damage usually comprises both mental and physical handicap. The mental component is often the more important in contributing to overall social disability. Lack of an objective scale leads to vague and over-optimistic estimates of outcome, which obscure the ultimate results of early management. A five-point scale is described--death, persistent vegetative state, severe disability, moderate disability, and good recovery. Duration as well as intensity of disability should be included in an index of ill-health; this applies particularly after head injury, because many disabled survivors are young.

  5. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  6. A Bayesian Decision Model for Battle Damage Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Franzen, Daniel

    1999-01-01

    Battle damage assessment (BDA) is critical to success in any air campaign. However, Desert Storm highlighted numerous deficiencies in the BDA process, and operations since Desert Storm continue to point out weaknesses...

  7. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  8. Terrorism cover in France for property damage including nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanislas, A.

    2004-01-01

    The obligation to include terrorism cover in all Property Damage policies issued on the French Market is ruled by an Act of 1986 and introduced under Section R 126-2 of the French Code of Insurance. This section stipulates that Property Damage policies must provide cover for damage resulting from acts of terrorism, with the same deductible and the same limit than that of the other damage covered in the policy. Soon after the dramatic events of September 11, 2001 in the United States and although reinsurers worldwide restricted their offer of capacities, French insurers recognized that they had to maintain this global cover for the benefit of their insurers. After difficult discussions between insurers, reinsurers, brokers, risk managers and representatives of the State, the creation of a new Pool, backed with a State guarantee, was decided in less than three months. Effective January 1, 2002 and called Gestion d'Assurance et de Reassurance des Risques Attentats et Actes de Terrorisme (GAREAT), the Pool offers a multiple layers stop-loss cover for Property Damage only, i.e. excluding TPL policies. Considering that nuclear risks should be treated in the same way as other industrial risks, it was decided that they would be covered by GAREAT as well. In the meantime, by a Decree of December 28, 2001 modifying Section R 126-2, a special provision, aiming at reducing the limit and thus the price of this cover, was introduced in the Code. The purpose of this paper is to expose the present situation applying through GAREAT and, after two years of operation to discuss future developments, including other sources of capacity for the coverage of acts of terrorism in nuclear risks insurance.(author)

  9. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  10. Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016: data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laudan, Jonas; Rözer, Viktor; Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Thieken, Annegret H.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods are caused by intense rainfall events and represent an insufficiently understood phenomenon in Germany. As a result of higher precipitation intensities, flash floods might occur more frequently in future. In combination with changing land use patterns and urbanisation, damage mitigation, insurance and risk management in flash-flood-prone regions are becoming increasingly important. However, a better understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information for research. At the end of May 2016, very high and concentrated rainfall intensities led to severe flash floods in several southern German municipalities. The small town of Braunsbach stood as a prime example of the devastating potential of such events. Eight to ten days after the flash flood event, damage assessment and data collection were conducted in Braunsbach by investigating all affected buildings and their surroundings. To record and store the data on site, the open-source software bundle KoBoCollect was used as an efficient and easy way to gather information. Since the damage driving factors of flash floods are expected to differ from those of riverine flooding, a post-hoc data analysis was performed, aiming to identify the influence of flood processes and building attributes on damage grades, which reflect the extent of structural damage. Data analyses include the application of random forest, a random general linear model and multinomial logistic regression as well as the construction of a local impact map to reveal influences on the damage grades. Further, a Spearman's Rho correlation matrix was calculated. The results reveal that the damage driving factors of flash floods differ from those of riverine floods to a certain extent. The exposition of a building in flow direction shows an especially strong correlation with the damage grade and has a high predictive power within the constructed damage models. Additionally

  11. Features of risks, damage claims processing and damage prevention overseas. Pt. 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Splittgerber, E

    1981-01-01

    In opening up new raw material resources in remote locations and in the erection of industrial installations in overseas countries, manufacturers are often confronted with additional, unusual and hitherto unknown risks which can have considerable influence upon the orderly and timely execution of their projects. In Part I, various risk factors are considered from the experiences of Allianz as technical insurer in foreign damages connected with plant, civil and installation work insurance. The influence of climatic conditions upon damage events is illustrated with examples and the effects of storm, sand storm, flooding and earthquake discussed using a world map of natural dangers. The customs of people from culturally different nations and races, dictated as they often are by religion, must be taken into account by site managers and other staff on the building sites. The necessity for improvisations on building sites far from home and the limits of such improvisations are also discussed.

  12. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  13. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  14. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  15. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  16. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  17. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  18. N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, J.T.

    1989-01-01

    An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented

  19. USNRC severe core damage assessment program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, J E [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls (USA); Johnston, W V; Kelber, C N [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (USA)

    1981-01-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power station has significantly altered the perception of the importance of beyond-design-basis accidents in licensing and safety reviews of light-water reactors in the USA. Increased consideration will be given by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission to low-probability, high-risk core melt accidents in future licensing proceedings. To this end, the USNRC is mounting experimental and analytic methods development programs to provide the technical basis for future LWR design and licensing criteria related to class-9 accidents. The scope, objectives, and content of five major new programs addressing safety and licensing issues for beyond-design-basis accidents are reviewed and the rationale and logic for formulation of the programs is discussed.

  20. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  1. Structurally integrated fiber optic damage assessment system for composite materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Measures, R M; Glossop, N D; Lymer, J; Leblanc, M; West, J; Dubois, S; Tsaw, W; Tennyson, R C

    1989-07-01

    Progress toward the development of a fiber optic damage assessment system for composite materials is reported. This system, based on the fracture of embedded optical fibers, has been characterized with respect to the orientation and location of the optical fibers in the composite. Together with a special treatment, these parameters have been tailored to yield a system capable of detecting the threshold of damage for various impacted Kevlar/epoxy panels. The technique has been extended to measure the growth of a damage region which could arise from either impact, manufacturing flaws, or static overloading. The mechanism of optical fiber fracture has also been investigated. In addition, the influence of embedded optical fibers on the tensile and compressive strength of the composite material has been studied. Image enhanced backlighting has been shown to be a powerful and convenient method of assessing internal damage to translucent composite materials.

  2. Sun damage in ultraviolet photographs correlates with phenotypic melanoma risk factors in 12-year-old children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamble, Ryan G; Asdigian, Nancy L; Aalborg, Jenny; Gonzalez, Victoria; Box, Neil F; Huff, Laura S; Barón, Anna E; Morelli, Joseph G; Mokrohisky, Stefan T; Crane, Lori A; Dellavalle, Robert P

    2012-10-01

    Ultraviolet (UV) photography has been used to motivate sun safety in behavioral interventions. The relationship between sun damage shown in UV photographs and melanoma risk has not been systematically investigated. To examine the relationship between severity of sun damage in UV photographs and phenotypic melanoma risk factors in children. UV, standard visible and cross-polarized photographs were recorded for 585 children. Computer software quantified sun damage. Full-body nevus counts, skin color by colorimetry, facial freckling, hair and eye color were collected in skin examinations. Demographic data were collected in telephone interviews of parents. Among 12-year-old children, sun damage shown in UV photographs correlated with phenotypic melanoma risk factors. Sun damage was greatest for children who were non-Hispanic white and those who had red hair, blue eyes, increased facial freckling, light skin and greater number of nevi (all P values photographs. Freckling was the strongest predictor of sun damage in visible and UV photographs. All other phenotypic melanoma risk factors were also predictors for the UV photographs. Differences in software algorithms used to score the photographs could produce different results. UV photographs portray more sun damage in children with higher risk for melanoma based on phenotype. Therefore sun protection interventions targeting those with greater sun damage on UV photographs will target those at higher melanoma risk. This study establishes reference ranges dermatologists can use to assess sun damage in their pediatric patients. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  4. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  5. Natural phenomena risk assessment at Rocky Flats Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foppe, T.L.

    1985-01-01

    A realistic approach is currently being used at the Rocky Flats Plant to assess the risks of natural phenomena events. The methodology addresses frequency of occurrence estimates, damage stress on the facility and vital equipment, material-at-risk, release fractions and source terms, leakpath, dispersion and dosimetric models, risk curves, and an uncertainty analysis. 28 references, 1 figure

  6. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk assessment for LRW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    The information obtained by probabilistic methods is explained discussing the results of various studies, such as the Reactor Safety Study of the USA, the West-German Reactor Safety Study (phases A and B), some other important studies like the RSSMAP and the IREP, as well as the Sizewell B report and an NRC report on precursors to potential severe core damage accidents. (DG) [de

  8. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  9. Risk assessment in the field of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, M.; Erdmann, G.; Leist, A.; Renn, O.; Schaber, P.; Scheringer, M.; Seiler, H.; Wiedenmann, R.

    1995-01-01

    The following subjects are dealt with in this book: - ethical thoughts on damage, risks and uncertainty, - risk evaluation from the point of view of sociology, - risk evaluation in the economy, - risk evaluation in law, - environmental damage due to the operation of energy generating systems. figs., tabs., refs

  10. Damage assessment methodology for vehicles exposed to flooding in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Martínez Gomariz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Urban floods may provoke important damages to vehicles, usually not taken into account within most studies related to urban flood risks damage assessments. Herein a methodology to estimate damages to vehicles exposed to urban floods is presented. After a state-of-the-art review, the most recent damage curves for vehicles developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE, 2009 are presented as the best adaptive and the most comprehensively performed so far. The proposed methodology is applied to the Spanish municipality of Badalona, framed in the H2020 European Project BINGO. In order to conduct this methodology some aspects such as the vehicular distribution are analyzed within the study area. Finally, Expected Annual Damage (EAD for flooded vehicles is calculated based on inundations related to design storms of different return periods (1, 10, 100 and 500 years.

  11. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  12. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  13. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  14. Comparative risk assessments for Guadeloupe: earthquakes and storm surge

    OpenAIRE

    Réveillère , Arnaud; Monfort , Daniel; Lecacheux , Sophie; Grisanti , Ludovic; Muller , Héloise; Bertil , Didier; Rohmer , Jérémy; Sedan , Olivier; Douglas , John; Baills , Audrey; Modaressi , Hormoz

    2012-01-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exi...

  15. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  16. Assessment of mean annual flood damage using simple hydraulic modeling and Monte Carlo simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oubennaceur, K.; Agili, H.; Chokmani, K.; Poulin, J.; Marceau, P.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are the most frequent and the most damaging natural disaster in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which struck the region in 2011, causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects has been developed. This approach integrates three main components: (1) hydrologic modelling aiming to establish a probability-discharge function which associate each measured discharge to its probability of occurrence (2) hydraulic modeling that aims to establish the relationship between the discharge and the water stage at each building (3) damage study that aims to assess the buildings damage using damage functions. The damage is estimated according to the water depth defined as the difference between the water level and the elevation of the building's first floor. The application of the proposed approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

  17. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  18. Seismic damage assessment for high-rise buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholl, Roger E.

    1980-01-01

    The problem considered in this project, conducted by URS/John A. Blume & Associates, Engineers (URS/Blume), for the U.S. Geological Survey, is the identification, evaluation, and correlation of ground-motion and structural parameters in order to improve procedures for predicting dollar losses for high-rise structures damaged by earthquakes. Ground-motion data bases, analytical techniques, and known motion-damage relationships already developed for high-rise buildings and for other classes of structures will be refined and extended so that reliable quantitative seismic risk evaluations can be made.

  19. Crowdsourcing earthquake damage assessment using remote sensing imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Gill

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of recent work on using crowdsourced analysis of remote sensing imagery, particularly high-resolution aerial imagery, to provide rapid, reliable assessments of damage caused by earthquakes and potentially other disasters. The initial effort examined online imagery taken after the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. A more recent response to the 2010 Haiti earthquake led to the formation of an international consortium: the Global Earth Observation Catastrophe Assessment Network (GEO-CAN. The success of GEO-CAN in contributing to the official damage assessments made by the Government of Haiti, the United Nations, and the World Bank led to further development of a web-based interface. A current initiative in Christchurch, New Zealand, is underway where remote sensing experts are analyzing satellite imagery, geotechnical engineers are marking liquefaction areas, and structural engineers are identifying building damage. The current site includes online training to improve the accuracy of the assessments and make it possible for even novice users to contribute to the crowdsourced solution. The paper discusses lessons learned from these initiatives and presents a way forward for using crowdsourced remote sensing as a tool for rapid assessment of damage caused by natural disasters around the world.

  20. Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical

  1. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  2. Nuclear data for radiation damage assessment and related safety aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocherov, N.P.

    1989-12-01

    The IAEA Advisory Group Meeting on Nuclear Data for Radiation Damage Assessment and Related Safety Aspects was held at the IAEA Headquarters in Vienna, 19-22 September 1989. This report contains the conclusions and recommendations of this meeting. The papers which the participants prepared for and presented at the meeting will be published as an IAEA Technical Document. (author)

  3. Technical Note: Assessment of Impact Damage to Apple Fruits ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An impact damage assessment of fresh apple fruits was carried out to ascertain the effects of height and surfaces on bruise area and impact energy. Five different impact surfaces namely: Cardboard (E), wood (F), metal (G), plastic (H) and foam (I) were used for the experiment. The weighed fruits were dropped from different ...

  4. Collisions damage assessment of ships and jack-up rigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Shengming; Pedersen, P. Terndrup; Ocakli, Hasan

    2015-01-01

    Ship collision with offshore installations is one of the key concerns in design and assess of platforms performance and safety. This paper presents an analysis on collision energy and structural damage in ship and offshore platform collisions for various collision scenarios. The platform or rig...

  5. Cancer risk assessments and environmental regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scroggin, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Governmental regulation of toxic substances, such as carcinogens and radiation, prompts both legal and scientific controversies. Industry, environmental activist groups, government regulators, and the general public are all concerned with the question of how environmental risk to public health is to be measured and what level of risk warrants government action under the environmental laws. Several recent events shed light on the fundamental scientific and legal problems inherent in such regulation, and these events may affect the direction of future developments. These events include implementation of generic Risk Assessment Guidelines by the US EPA, litigation challenging EPA's regulation of carcinogenic substances, new scientific understanding of the relative risks from human exposure to natural and man-made sources, and the continuing growth of toxic tort litigation in which victims of cancer seek large damages from industrial emitters of pollution

  6. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  7. Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves

  8. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  9. A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

  10. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  11. Assessment of damage domains of the High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores, Alain; Izquierdo, José María; Tuček, Kamil; Gallego, Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We developed an adequate model for the identification of damage domains of the HTTR. • We analysed an anticipated operational transient, using the HTTR5+/GASTEMP code. • We simulated several transients of the same sequence. • We identified the corresponding damage domains using two methods. • We calculated exceedance frequency using the two methods. - Abstract: This paper presents an assessment analysis of damage domains of the 30 MW th prototype High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) operated by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). For this purpose, an in-house deterministic risk assessment computational tool was developed based on the Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD). To illustrate the methodology and applicability of the developed modelling approach, assessment results of a control rod (CR) withdrawal accident during subcritical conditions are presented and compared with those obtained by the JAEA

  12. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  13. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  14. Damage assessment in multilayered MEMS structures under thermal fatigue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maligno, A. R.; Whalley, D. C.; Silberschmidt, V. V.

    2011-07-01

    This paper reports on the application of a Physics of Failure (PoF) methodology to assessing the reliability of a micro electro mechanical system (MEMS). Numerical simulations, based on the finite element method (FEM) using a sub-domain approach was used to examine the damage onset due to temperature variations (e.g. yielding of metals which may lead to thermal fatigue). In this work remeshing techniques were employed in order to develop a damage tolerance approach based on the assumption that initial flaws exist in the multi-layered.

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  18. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  19. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  20. Washington's marine oil spill compensation schedule - simplified resource damage assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geselbracht, L.; Logan, R.

    1993-01-01

    The Washington State Preassessment Screening and Oil Spill Compensation Schedule Rule (Chapter 173-183 Washington Administrative Code), which simplifies natural resource damage assessment for many oil spill cases, became effective in May 1992. The approach described in the rule incorporates a number of preconstructed rankings that rate environmental sensitivity and the propensity of spilled oil to cause environmental harm. The rule also provides guidance regarding how damages calculated under the schedule should be reduced to take into account actions taken by the responsible party that reduce environmental injury. To apply the compensation schedule to marine estuarine spills, the resource trustees need only collect a limited amount of information such as type of product spilled, number of gallons spilled, compensation schedule subregions the spill entered, season of greatest spill impact, percent coverage of habitats affected by the spill, and actions taken by the responsible party. The result of adding a simplified tool to the existing assortment of damage assessment approaches is that resource trustees will now be able to assess damages for most oil spill cases and shift more effort than was possible in the past to resource restoration

  1. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  2. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  3. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  4. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  5. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  6. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  7. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  8. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  9. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  10. Life assessment of aerospace structure using damage tolerance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anwar, W.; Khan, M.Z.

    2007-01-01

    Damage Tolerant Design plays a major role in the Aerospace Industry not only in the design of new structures and components but also their ongoing maintenance and support. Damage Tolerance Analysis (DT A) is a procedure that defines whether a crack can be sustained safely during the projected service life of the structure. Using this methodology, service life of an aerospace structure can be determined and may be extended by applying proper tooling and machining for repair. In this research the effect of damage increment on the convergence of the residual strength is investigated for a wing component of an aircraft. The stresses redistribution with damage growth is discussed. Simulation using Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) laws are performed, those results the damage scenarios to be assessed in the real structural geometry and loading environment, using Stress Intensity Factors, Critical Crack Sizes and the Residual Strength of that component. Fatigue crack growth behaviour of the component is also investigated experimentally. The fatigue experiments were performed under constant stress amplitude loadings and constant amplitude loading with single overload. It has been observed that the computed fatigue curves fit well with the experimental results. (author)

  11. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  12. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  13. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  14. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  15. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  16. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  17. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  18. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  19. Natural resource damage assessment -- Trustee and defendant perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McHugh, M.; Trimmier, R. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    The goal of the NRD process is restoration: restoring injured resources and the services they provide to a level that will compensate the public for the losses associated with injuries. While restoration, the final step in the cleanup process, has only recently been pursued, experience dictates that it is more effective and efficient for cleanup agencies. Industry and natural resource trustees to address NRD by integrating it into the cleanup process in a cooperative and coordinated manner. Early integration reduces transaction costs and liability by: (1) enabling the collection of NRD information by field personnel already conducting RI work; (2) promoting the selection of remedial alternatives that are protective of resources; and (3) creating opportunities to build restoration directly into the remedy. The damage assessment regulations provide an objective template to guide this process. Integration thus facilitates timely restoration, thereby halting the accrual of further damages and reducing the potential for time consuming and costly litigation. Delays in settlement and restoration are more likely when trustees are not made part of the cleanup process. Particularly under CERCLA, reliance on unproven science for injury determination and unreliable economics for damage assessment results in inflated values, prolonged litigation, delayed or vacuous remedial action and high transaction costs. Under OPA, where oil spills require immediate and effective response action, cooperation between PRPs and Trustees is more likely, but even there, the post-response assessment of NRD is unlikely to be cooperative for the same reason CERCLA assessments tend not to be

  20. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  1. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  2. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  3. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

    2017-12-01

    The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push

  4. Implementation of the natural resource damage assessment rule

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-11-01

    Regulations have been promulgated by the Department of Interior (DOI) which provide an administrative process whereby natural resource trustees may establish the type and extent of injury and evaluate the damages to natural resources. These regulations provide an optional mechanism for Natural Resource Damage Assessments (NRDAs), with four major components. A workshop was held to develop recommendations for DOE-OR regarding implementation of the DOI NRDA regulations at the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). The attendants were divided into three working groups to consider (1) administrative/legal requirements, (2) ecological assessments, and (3) the NRDA/economic evaluation process. This report supplies an overview of the DOI NRDA regulations as well as summaries of the consensus of each of the three working groups

  5. Alkaline Comet Assay for Assessing DNA Damage in Individual Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Xinzhu; Wang, Zemin; Klaunig, James E

    2015-08-06

    Single-cell gel electrophoresis, commonly called a comet assay, is a simple and sensitive method for assessing DNA damage at the single-cell level. It is an important technique in genetic toxicological studies. The comet assay performed under alkaline conditions (pH >13) is considered the optimal version for identifying agents with genotoxic activity. The alkaline comet assay is capable of detecting DNA double-strand breaks, single-strand breaks, alkali-labile sites, DNA-DNA/DNA-protein cross-linking, and incomplete excision repair sites. The inclusion of digestion of lesion-specific DNA repair enzymes in the procedure allows the detection of various DNA base alterations, such as oxidative base damage. This unit describes alkaline comet assay procedures for assessing DNA strand breaks and oxidative base alterations. These methods can be applied in a variety of cells from in vitro and in vivo experiments, as well as human studies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  6. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  7. Damage assessment in CFRP laminates exposed to impact fatigue loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsigkourakos, George; Silberschmidt, Vadim V; Ashcroft, I A

    2011-01-01

    Demand for advanced engineering composites in the aerospace industry is increasing continuously. Lately, carbon fibre reinforced polymers (CFRPs) became one of the most important structural materials in the industry due to a combination of characteristics such as: excellent stiffness, high strength-to-weight ratio, and ease of manufacture according to application. In service, aerospace composite components and structures are exposed to various transient loads, some of which can propagate in them as cyclic impacts. A typical example is an effect of the wind gusts during flight. This type of loading is known as impact fatigue (IF); it is a repetition of low-energy impacts. Such loads can cause various types of damage in composites: fibre breaking, transverse matrix cracking, de-bonding between fibres and matrix and delamination resulting in reduction of residual stiffness and loss of functionality. Furthermore, this damage is often sub-surface, which reinforces the need for more regular inspection. The effects of IF are of major importance due its detrimental effect on the structural integrity of components that can be generated after relatively few impacts at low force levels compared to those in a standard fatigue regime. This study utilises an innovative testing system with the capability of subjecting specimens to a series of repetitive impacts. The primary subject of this paper is to assess the damaging effect of IF on the behaviour of drilled CFRP specimens, exposed to such loading. A detailed damage analysis is implemented utilising an X-ray micro computed tomography system. The main findings suggested that at early stages of life damage is governed by o degree splits along the length of the specimens resulting in a 20% reduction of stiffness. The final failure damage scenario indicated that transverse crasks in the 90 degree plies are the main reason for complete delamination which can be translated to a 50% stiffness reduction.

  8. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  9. Assessment of the material properties of a fire damaged building

    OpenAIRE

    Oladipupo OLOMO; Olufikayo ADERINLEWO; Moses TANIMOLA; Silvana CROOPE

    2012-01-01

    This study identifies a process for assessing the material properties of a fire damaged building so as to determine whether the remains can be utilized in construction or be demolished. Physical and chemical analysis were carried out on concrete and steel samples taken from various elements of the building after thorough visual inspection of the entire building had been conducted. The physical (non-destructive) tests included the Schmidt hammer and ultrasonic pulse velocity tests on the concr...

  10. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  11. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  12. Legal and legal-ethical aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, H.

    1991-01-01

    The article examines why human beings accept risks. An assessment of risk is always carried out in connection with the benefits to be had from an action which is a potential risk. Decisions on the acceptability of risks are the consequence of political assessments. An assessment of risk on a legal basis is only possible to a limited degree. What is important are the criteria according to which the acceptability of risks is determined. In this context, the concept of damage proves itself to be of central importance; this concept includes the question as to the degree to which such damage can be tolerated socially and politically, the question of future damage as well as the degree to which such damage is reversible. It would be ideal if those persons who are affected by potential damage were to be the ones to make such decisions, but this is extremely difficult to put into practice. Special care must be taken in regard to decisions which have repercussions for future generations or for the state of nature. In this case, the decision which those persons who are potentially affected would most probably make must be anticipated and taken into account as if they were here to participate in the decision-making process. (orig./HSCH) [de

  13. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  14. A Risk-Based Approach to Shelter Resilience following Flood and Typhoon Damage in Rural Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria Stephenson

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Philippines is exposed to numerous typhoons every year, each of which poses a potential threat to livelihoods, shelter, and in some cases life. Flooding caused by such events leads to extensive damage to land and buildings, and the impact on rural communities can be severe. The global community is calling for action to address and achieve disaster risk reduction for communities and people exposed to such events. Achieving this requires an understanding of the nature of the risks that flooding and typhoons pose to these communities and their homes. This paper presents the findings from a field based case study assessment of three rural settlements in the Philippines, where typhoons and associated flooding in recent years has caused significant damage to houses and livelihoods, leading to the reconstruction of homes that more often than not reproduce similar structural vulnerabilities as were there before these hazards occurred. This work presents a methodology for risk assessment of such structures profiling the flood and wind hazards and measuring physical vulnerability and the experience of communities affected. The aim of the work is to demonstrate a method for identifying risks in these communities, and seeks to address the challenge faced by practitioners of assisting communities in rebuilding their homes in more resilient ways. The work set out here contributes to the discussion about how best to enable practitioners and communities to achieve the sought for risk reduction and especially highlights the role that geoscience and engineering can have in achieving this ambition.

  15. Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryvasheyeu, Yury; Chen, Haohui; Obradovich, Nick; Moro, Esteban; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; Fowler, James; Cebrian, Manuel

    2016-03-01

    Could social media data aid in disaster response and damage assessment? Countries face both an increasing frequency and an increasing intensity of natural disasters resulting from climate change. During such events, citizens turn to social media platforms for disaster-related communication and information. Social media improves situational awareness, facilitates dissemination of emergency information, enables early warning systems, and helps coordinate relief efforts. In addition, the spatiotemporal distribution of disaster-related messages helps with the real-time monitoring and assessment of the disaster itself. We present a multiscale analysis of Twitter activity before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We examine the online response of 50 metropolitan areas of the United States and find a strong relationship between proximity to Sandy's path and hurricane-related social media activity. We show that real and perceived threats, together with physical disaster effects, are directly observable through the intensity and composition of Twitter's message stream. We demonstrate that per-capita Twitter activity strongly correlates with the per-capita economic damage inflicted by the hurricane. We verify our findings for a wide range of disasters and suggest that massive online social networks can be used for rapid assessment of damage caused by a large-scale disaster.

  16. Flood damage assessment – Literature review and recommended procedure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Lea; Löwe, Roland; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    The assessment of flood risk is an essential tool in evaluating the potential consequences of a flood. The analysis of the risk can be applied as part of the flood plain management, but can also be used in a cost-benefit analysis, when comparing different adaption strategies. This analysis is the...

  17. Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

  18. A Tensor-Based Structural Damage Identification and Severity Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anaissi, Ali; Makki Alamdari, Mehrisadat; Rakotoarivelo, Thierry; Khoa, Nguyen Lu Dang

    2018-01-01

    Early damage detection is critical for a large set of global ageing infrastructure. Structural Health Monitoring systems provide a sensor-based quantitative and objective approach to continuously monitor these structures, as opposed to traditional engineering visual inspection. Analysing these sensed data is one of the major Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) challenges. This paper presents a novel algorithm to detect and assess damage in structures such as bridges. This method applies tensor analysis for data fusion and feature extraction, and further uses one-class support vector machine on this feature to detect anomalies, i.e., structural damage. To evaluate this approach, we collected acceleration data from a sensor-based SHM system, which we deployed on a real bridge and on a laboratory specimen. The results show that our tensor method outperforms a state-of-the-art approach using the wavelet energy spectrum of the measured data. In the specimen case, our approach succeeded in detecting 92.5% of induced damage cases, as opposed to 61.1% for the wavelet-based approach. While our method was applied to bridges, its algorithm and computation can be used on other structures or sensor-data analysis problems, which involve large series of correlated data from multiple sensors. PMID:29301314

  19. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  20. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  1. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  2. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  3. Partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of incident radiographic osteoarthritis and worsening cartilage damage in the following year

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roemer, Frank W. [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Department of Radiology, Erlangen (Germany); Kwoh, C.K. [University of Arizona Arthritis Center and University of Arizona College of Medicine, Tucson, AZ (United States); Hannon, Michael J.; Grago, Jason [University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Hunter, David J. [University of Sydney, Department of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital and Kolling Institute, St Leonards (Australia); Eckstein, Felix [Paracelsus Medical University, Institute of Anatomy, Salzburg (Austria); Boudreau, Robert M. [University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Englund, Martin [Lund University, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Orthopaedics, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund (Sweden); Guermazi, Ali [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2017-01-15

    To assess whether partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) and worsening cartilage damage in the following year. We studied 355 knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative that developed ROA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2), which were matched with control knees. The MR images were assessed using the semi-quantitative MOAKS system. Conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate risk of incident ROA. Logistic regression was used to assess the risk of worsening cartilage damage in knees with partial meniscectomy that developed ROA. In the group with incident ROA, 4.4 % underwent partial meniscectomy during the year prior to the case-defining visit, compared with none of the knees that did not develop ROA. All (n = 31) knees that had partial meniscectomy and 58.9 % (n = 165) of the knees with prevalent meniscal damage developed ROA (OR = 2.51, 95 % CI [1.73, 3.64]). In knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with an increased risk of worsening cartilage damage (OR = 4.51, 95 % CI [1.53, 13.33]). The probability of having had partial meniscectomy was higher in knees that developed ROA. When looking only at knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with greater risk of worsening cartilage damage. (orig.)

  4. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  5. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  6. Grinding damage assessment for CAD-CAM restorative materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Philippe; Cattani-Lorente, Maria; Anselm Wiskott, H W; Durual, Stéphane; Scherrer, Susanne S

    2017-03-01

    To assess surface/subsurface damage after grinding with diamond discs on five CAD-CAM restorative materials and to estimate potential losses in strength based on crack size measurements of the generated damage. The materials tested were: Lithium disilicate (LIT) glass-ceramic (e.max CAD), leucite glass-ceramic (LEU) (Empress CAD), feldspar ceramic (VM2) (Vita Mark II), feldspar ceramic-resin infiltrated (EN) (Enamic) and a composite reinforced with nano ceramics (LU) (Lava Ultimate). Specimens were cut from CAD-CAM blocs and pair-wise mirror polished for the bonded interface technique. Top surfaces were ground with diamond discs of respectively 75, 54 and 18μm. Chip damage was measured on the bonded interface using SEM. Fracture mechanics relationships were used to estimate fracture stresses based on average and maximum chip depths assuming these to represent strength limiting flaws subjected to tension and to calculate potential losses in strength compared to manufacturer's data. Grinding with a 75μm diamond disc induced on a bonded interface critical chips averaging 100μm with a potential strength loss estimated between 33% and 54% for all three glass-ceramics (LIT, LEU, VM2). The softer materials EN and LU were little damage susceptible with chips averaging respectively 26μm and 17μm with no loss in strength. Grinding with 18μm diamond discs was still quite detrimental for LIT with average chip sizes of 43μm and a potential strength loss of 42%. It is essential to understand that when grinding glass-ceramics or feldspar ceramics with diamond discs surface and subsurface damage are induced which have the potential of lowering the strength of the ceramic. Careful polishing steps should be carried out after grinding especially when dealing with glass-ceramics. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF STATIN-ASSOCIATED MUSCLE DAMAGE PREDICTORS IN PATIENTS WITH ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE

    OpenAIRE

    V. I. Petrov; O. N. Smuseva; Yu. V. Solovkina

    2013-01-01

    Aim. To assess the risk factors of statin-associated muscle damage in patient with ischemic heart disease.Material and methods. 258 patients with ischemic heart disease treated with statin were included into the study. Total plasma creatine kinase levels were measured and SLCO1B1*5 genotyping was performed. Relationship between statin therapy and adverse events was evaluated by Naranjo algorithm.Results. Patients with muscle symptoms received statins significantly longer (48.8 vs 11.9 months,...

  8. Earthquake risk assessment of building structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2001-01-01

    During the past two decades, probabilistic risk analysis tools have been applied to assess the performance of new and existing building structural systems. Structural design and evaluation of buildings and other facilities with regard to their ability to withstand the effects of earthquakes requires special considerations that are not normally a part of such evaluations for other occupancy, service and environmental loads. This paper reviews some of these special considerations, specifically as they pertain to probability-based codified design and reliability-based condition assessment of existing buildings. Difficulties experienced in implementing probability-based limit states design criteria for earthquake are summarized. Comparisons of predicted and observed building damage highlight the limitations of using current deterministic approaches for post-earthquake building condition assessment. The importance of inherent randomness and modeling uncertainty in forecasting building performance is examined through a building fragility assessment of a steel frame with welded connections that was damaged during the Northridge Earthquake of 1994. The prospects for future improvements in earthquake-resistant design procedures based on a more rational probability-based treatment of uncertainty are examined

  9. Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badal, J.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; González, Á.

    2005-01-01

    Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence...... of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number...... the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out...

  10. Impedance-based damage assessment using piezoelectric sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rim, Mi-Sun; Yoo, Seung-Jae; Lee, In; Song, Jae-Hoon; Yang, Jae-Won

    2011-04-01

    Recently structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are being focused because they make it possible to assess the health of structures at real-time in many application fields such as aircraft, aerospace, civil and so on. Piezoelectric materials are widely used for sensors of SHM system to monitor damage of critical parts such as bolted joints. Bolted joints could be loosened by vibration, thermal cycling, shock, corrosion, and they cause serious mechanical failures. In this paper, impedance-based method using piezoelectric sensors was applied for real-time SHM. A steel beam specimen fastened by bolts was tested, and polymer type piezoelectric materials, PVDFs were used for sensors to monitor the condition of bolted joint connections. When structure has some damage, for example loose bolts, the impedance of PVDF sensors showed different tendency with normal structure which has no loose bolts. In the case of loose bolts, impedance values are decreased and admittance values are increased.

  11. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  12. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  14. Condition Assessment for Wastewater Pipes: Method for Assessing Cracking and Surface Damage of Concrete Pipes

    OpenAIRE

    Hauge, Petter

    2013-01-01

    The objective of the Master Thesis has been to provide an improved method for condition assessment, which will give a better correlation between Condition class and actual Condition of concrete pipes with cracking and/or surface damages. Additionally improvement of the characterization of cracking (SR) and surface (KO) damages was a sub goal.Based on the findings described in my Thesis and my Specialization Project (Hauge 2012), I recommend that the Norwegian condition assessment method based...

  15. A methodology for assessment seismic risk in PSAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jae, Moo Sung

    2001-01-01

    This paper suggested a new framework for assessing seismic risk in PSAs. The framework used the concepts of requirement and achievement in the reliability physics. The quantified correlation which is a function of the requirement variable (hazard curve) and the achievement variable (fragility curve) results in a quantity, the unconditional frequency of exceeding a damage lelvel. This framework can be applied to any other external safety assessment, such as Fire and Flood Risk in PSAs

  16. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  17. An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Tree-Based Models for Multi-Variate Flood Damage Assessment in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Flood is a frequent natural hazard that has significant financial consequences for Australia. In Australia, physical losses caused by floods are commonly estimated by stage-damage functions. These methods usually consider only the depth of the water and the type of buildings at risk. However, flood damage is a complicated process, and it is dependent on a variety of factors which are rarely taken into account. This study explores the interaction, importance, and influence of water depth, flow velocity, water contamination, precautionary measures, emergency measures, flood experience, floor area, building value, building quality, and socioeconomic status. The study uses tree-based models (regression trees and bagging decision trees and a dataset collected from 2012 to 2013 flood events in Queensland, which includes information on structural damages, impact parameters, and resistance variables. The tree-based approaches show water depth, floor area, precautionary measures, building value, and building quality to be important damage-influencing parameters. Furthermore, the performance of the tree-based models is validated and contrasted with the outcomes of a multi-parameter loss function (FLFArs from Australia. The tree-based models are shown to be more accurate than the stage-damage function. Consequently, considering more parameters and taking advantage of tree-based models is recommended. The outcome is important for improving established Australian flood loss models and assisting decision-makers and insurance companies dealing with flood risk assessment.

  18. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  19. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  20. Assessing Hurricane Katrina Vegetation Damage at Stennis Space Center using IKONOS Image Classification Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Ross, Kenton W.; Graham, William D.

    2007-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina hit southwestern Mississippi on August 29, 2005, at 9:45 a.m. CDT as a category 3 storm with surges up to approx. 9 m and sustained winds of approx. 120 mph. The hurricane's wind, rain, and flooding devastated several coastal towns, from New Orleans through Mobile. The storm also caused significant damage to infrastructure and vegetation of NASA's SSC (Stennis Space Center). Storm recovery at SSC involved not only repairs of critical infrastructure but also forest damage mitigation (via timber harvests and control burns to reduce fire risk). This presentation discusses an effort to use commercially available high spatial resolution multispectral IKONOS data for vegetation damage assessment, based on data collected over SSC on September 2, 2005.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  2. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  3. Assessing the physical vulnerability of check dams through an empirical damage index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Dell'Agnese

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive analysis of flood risk in mountain streams has to include an assessment of the vulnerability of the protection systems, in addition to an assessment of the vulnerability of the constructed environment on alluvial fans and floodplains. Structures forming the protection systems are of a dual nature, i.e. they are designed to mitigate natural process-related hazards and, on the other hand, are prone to be damaged during their lifecycle by the same processes they should mitigate. Therefore, their effectiveness declines over time. Hence, the knowledge of how effectively control structures perform is essential for risk management. A procedure was developed to assess the physical vulnerability of check dams based on empirical evidence collected in South Tyrol, Northern Italy. A damage index defined on pre- and postevent comparisons of check dam conditions was evaluated for 362 structures in 18 mountain streams along with the relevant processes and the structural characteristics affecting it. Although the available dataset did not allow conclusive functional relationships between damage index and impact variables to be established, it was possible to assess the average expected residual functionality of check dams according to structure characteristics, and event type and intensity. These results may help plan appropriate check dam maintenance.

  4. Damage assessment of nuclear containment against aircraft crash

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iqbal, Mohd Ashraf, E-mail: iqbal_ashraf@rediffmail.com; Sadique, Md. Rehan, E-mail: rehan.sadique@gmail.com; Bhargava, Pradeep, E-mail: bhpdpfce@iitr.ac.in; Bhandari, N.M., E-mail: nmbcefce@iitr.ac.in

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • Damage assessment of nuclear containment is studied against aircraft crash. • Four impact locations have been identified at the outer containment shell. • The mid of the total height has been found to be most vulnerable location. • The crown of dome has been found to be the strongest location. • Phantom F4 caused more localized and severe damage compared to other aircrafts. - Abstract: The behavior of nuclear containment structure has been studied against aircraft crash with an emphasis on the influence of strike location. The impact locations identified on the BWR Mark III type nuclear containment structure are mid-height, junction of dome and cylinder, crown of dome and arc of dome. The containment at each of the above locations has been impacted normally by Phantom F-4, Boeing 707-320 and Airbus A320 aircrafts. The loading of the aircraft has been assigned through the corresponding reaction-time response curve. ABAQUS/Explicit finite element code has been used to carry out the three-dimensional numerical simulations. The concrete damaged plasticity model was used to simulate the behavior of concrete while the behavior of steel reinforcement was incorporated using the Johnson–Cook elasto-viscoplastic material model. The mid-height of containment has been found to experience most severe deformation against each aircraft. Phantom F4 has been found to be most disastrous at each location. The results have been compared with those of the available studies with respect to the containment deformation.

  5. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  6. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  7. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  8. Remotely controlled working gear and mobile systems for damage assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koehler, G.W.; Salaske, M.; Selig, M.

    1975-01-01

    The chassis of the light MF3 manipulator vehicle and the necessary electric control system have reached and advanced stage of construction. Bids will soon be invited for the mission control system with multiplexers of whole MF3 unit and for simple equipment for damage assessment. All major problems have been clarified in the course of the design phase of the light electric EMSM II Master-Slave manipulators intended for this service. The prototype of the electric EMSM I Master-Slave manipulator has been equipped with some of the supplementary tools required for test missions. (orig.) [de

  9. Damage assessment in coastal habitats: Lessons learned from Exxon Valdez

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dean, T.A.; McDonald, L.; Stekoll, M.S.; Rosenthal, R.R.

    1993-01-01

    This paper examines alternative designs for the monitoring and assessment of damages of environmental impacts such as oil spills. The optimal design requires sampling at pairs of impacted (oiled) and control (unoiled) sites both before and after the event. However, this design proved impractical in evaluating impacts of the Exxon Valdez oil spill on nearshore subtidal communities, and may be impractical for future monitoring. An alternative design is discussed in which sampling is conducted at pairs of control and impact sites only after the impact

  10. Radiation damage assessment of Nb tunnel junction devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, S.E.; Magno, R.; Maisch, W.G.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the radiation hardness of a new technology using Josephson junctions that was explored by an irradiation using a fluence of 7.6 x 10 14 protons/cm 2 at an energy of 63 MeV from the U.C. Davis cyclotron. In what the authors believe is the first radiation assessment of Nb/Al 2 O 3 /Nb devices, the permanent damage in these devices was investigated. No permanent changes in the I-V characteristics of the junctions were observed indicating no significant level of material defects have occurred at this level of irradiation

  11. Emergency Response Damage Assessment using Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clandillon, Stephen; Yésou, Hervé; Schneiderhan, Tobias; de Boissezon, Hélène; de Fraipont, Paul

    2013-04-01

    During disasters rescue and relief organisations need quick access to reliable and accurate information to be better equipped to do their job. It is increasingly felt that satellites offer a unique near real time (NRT) tool to aid disaster management. A short introduction to the International Charter 'Space and Major Disasters', in operation since 2000 promoting worldwide cooperation among member space agencies, will be given as it is the foundation on which satellite-based, emergency response, damage assessment has been built. Other complementary mechanisms will also be discussed. The user access, triggering mechanism, an essential component for this user-driven service, will be highlighted with its 24/7 single access point. Then, a clear distinction will be made between data provision and geo-information delivery mechanisms to underline the user need for geo-information that is easily integrated into their working environments. Briefly, the path to assured emergency response product quality will be presented beginning with user requirements, expressed early-on, for emergency response value-adding services. Initiatives were then established, supported by national and European institutions, to develop the sector, with SERTIT and DLR being key players, providing support to decision makers in headquarters and relief teams in the field. To consistently meet the high quality levels demanded by users, rapid mapping has been transformed via workflow and quality control standardisation to improve both speed and quality. As such, SERTIT located in Alsace, France, and DLR/ZKI from Bavaria, Germany, join their knowledge in this presentation to report about recent standards as both have ISO certified their rapid mapping services based on experienced, well-trained, 24/7 on-call teams and established systems providing the first crisis analysis product in 6 hours after satellite data reception. The three main product types provided are then outlined: up-to-date pre

  12. Risk assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyon, R.B.; Rosinger, E.L.J.

    1979-01-01

    The objectives of risk assessment studies for radioactive waste disposal are: to specify the features that prevent the escape of radionuclides from a deep disposal vault, to estimate how effective these features are likely to be, and to determine the potential consequences of the expected situation and conceivable but unlikely situations. The major features to be analysed include the insoluble nature of the waste form itself, the resistance of its container to corrosion or mechanical damage, the effectiveness of the massive rock barrier and the hold-up and dilution of radionuclides in the surface environment. Computer modelling is used in a technique called ''pathway analysis'' to bring together the experimental data, field data and understanding of the relevant phenomena into an assessment of the resultant effect on man and the environment. (author)

  13. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  14. Dynamics of combined forest damage risks for 21st century (SRES A1B, B1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panferov, Oleg; Merklein, Johannes; Sogachev, Andrey; Junghans, Udo; Ahrends, Bernd

    2010-05-01

    The ongoing climate change can result in increasing frequency of weather extremes (Leckebusch et al., 2008) which in turn can produce wide area forest damage (windthrows, droughts, insect attacks) within forest ecosystems in Europe. The probability and extent of damage, depend not only on a strength of a driving force itself but especially on combinations of effecting agents and their interactions with forest ecosystem structure and soil properties. The combined effect of several factors which are not the extremes themselves can lead to the biotic and/or abiotic damage so that the combination becomes an extreme event. As soon as a damage event occurs, the forest structure is changed. The changes in forest structure in their turn strengthen or inhibits the influence of different climatic factors thus increase or decrease the probability of the next damage event creating positive or negative feedbacks. To assess the roles of separate meteorological factors and their combinations in forest damage under present and future climatic conditions the coupled model was created in University of Goettingen, as a part of a Decision Support System (Jansen et al, 2008, Panferov et al., 2009). The model combines the 3D ABL Model SCADIS (Panferov and Sogachev, 2008) with modified soil hydrology model BROOK 90 (Federer, 2003, Ahrends et al. 2009) and the model of climate dependent biotic damage. The projected future developments of forest damage events in 21st Century were carried out under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1; the present conditions were evaluated using the measured data of German Weather Service. Climate scenario data of coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM were downscaled by the regional climate model Climate Local Model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of 0.2° x 0.2° and temporal resolution of 24 hours. Using these data as input the small-scale coupled process based modeling was then carried out for example region of Solling, Germany calculating the water and energy balance

  15. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  16. Grinding damage assessment on four high-strength ceramics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canneto, Jean-Jacques; Cattani-Lorente, Maria; Durual, Stéphane; Wiskott, Anselm H W; Scherrer, Susanne S

    2016-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess surface and subsurface damage on 4 CAD-CAM high-strength ceramics after grinding with diamond disks of 75 μm, 54 μm and 18 μm and to estimate strength losses based on damage crack sizes. The materials tested were: 3Y-TZP (Lava), dense Al2O3 (In-Ceram AL), alumina glass-infiltrated (In-Ceram ALUMINA) and alumina-zirconia glass-infiltrated (In-Ceram ZIRCONIA). Rectangular specimens with 2 mirror polished orthogonal sides were bonded pairwise together prior to degrading the top polished surface with diamond disks of either 75 μm, 54 μm or 18 μm. The induced chip damage was evaluated on the bonded interface using SEM for chip depth measurements. Fracture mechanics were used to estimate fracture stresses based on average and maximum chip depths considering these as critical flaws subjected to tension and to calculate possible losses in strength compared to manufacturer's data. 3Y-TZP was hardly affected by grinding chip damage viewed on the bonded interface. Average chip depths were of 12.7±5.2 μm when grinding with 75 μm diamond inducing an estimated loss of 12% in strength compared to manufacturer's reported flexural strength values of 1100 MPa. Dense alumina showed elongated chip cracks and was suffering damage of an average chip depth of 48.2±16.3 μm after 75 μm grinding, representing an estimated loss in strength of 49%. Grinding with 54 μm was creating chips of 32.2±9.1 μm in average, representing a loss in strength of 23%. Alumina glass-infiltrated ceramic was exposed to chipping after 75 μm (mean chip size=62.4±19.3 μm) and 54 μm grinding (mean chip size=42.8±16.6 μm), with respectively 38% and 25% estimated loss in strength. Alumina-zirconia glass-infiltrated ceramic was mainly affected by 75 μm grinding damage with a chip average size of 56.8±15.1 μm, representing an estimated loss in strength of 34%. All four ceramics were not exposed to critical chipping at 18 μm diamond grinding. Reshaping a

  17. Risk-informed optimal routing of ships considering different damage scenarios and operational conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decò, Alberto; Frangopol, Dan M.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is the development of a risk-informed decision tool for the optimal mission-oriented routing of ships. The strength of the hull is investigated by modeling the midship section with finite elements and by analyzing different damage levels depending on the propagation of plastification throughout the section. Vertical and horizontal flexural interaction is investigated. Uncertainties associated with geometry and material properties are accounted for by means of the implementation of the response surface method. Load effects are evaluated using strip theory. Reliability analysis is performed for several ship operational conditions and considering four different limit states. Then, risk is assessed by including the direct losses associated with five investigated damage states. The effects of corrosion on aged ships are included in the proposed approach. Polar representation of load effects, reliability, and direct risk are presented for a large spectrum of operational conditions. Finally, the optimal routing of ships is obtained by minimizing both the estimated time of arrival and the expected direct risk, which are clearly conflicting objectives. The optimization process provides feasible solutions belonging to the Pareto front. The proposed approach is applied to a Joint High Speed Sealift

  18. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  19. Using risk maps to link land value damage and risk as basis of flexible risk management for brownfield redevelopment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I-chun; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2013-02-01

    Brownfield redevelopment involves numerous uncertain financial risks associated with market demand and land value. To reduce the uncertainty of the specific impact of land value and social costs, this study develops small-scale risk maps to determine the relationship between population risk (PR) and damaged land value (DLV) to facilitate flexible land reutilisation plans. This study used the spatial variability of exposure parameters in each village to develop the contaminated site-specific risk maps. In view of the combination of risk and cost, risk level that most affected land use was mainly 1.00×10(-6) to 1.00×10(-5) in this study area. Village 2 showed the potential for cost-effective conversion with contaminated land development. If the risk of remediation target was set at 5.00×10(-6), the DLV could be reduced by NT$15,005 million for the land developer. The land developer will consider the net benefit by quantifying the trade-off between the changes of land value and the cost of human health. In this study, small-scale risk maps can illuminate the economic incentive potential for contaminated site redevelopment through the adjustment of land value damage and human health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  1. Hygro thermal simulation to predict the risk of frost damage in masonry : effects of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aarle, M.A.P.; Schellen, H.L.; van Schijndel, A.W.M.

    2015-01-01

    According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) climate change will result in an increase of air temperature and rainfall intensities for the Netherlands in winter in future. In this paper we investigate the effect of the risk of frost damage to masonry. The risk of frost damage

  2. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  3. Multi-scale landslide risk assessment in Cuba

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.

    2008-01-01

    Landslides cause a considerable amount of damage in the mountainous regions of Cuba, which cover about 25% of the territory. Until now, only a limited amount of research has been carried out in the field of landslide risk assessment in the country. This research presents a methodology and its

  4. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  5. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  6. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  7. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  10. Natural resource damage assessments: Linking injury to restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, M.; Collinson-Kahl, C.

    1993-01-01

    Under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90), natural resource trustees have the authority to act on behalf of the public to file claims for damages against potentially responsible parties for injury to, destruction of, or loss of natural resources and related human services caused by releases of hazardous substances or discharges of oil. Damages recovered must be used to restore, replace, or acquire the equivalent of such resources. Therefore, to adequately restore an injured resource and the services it provides, a natural resource restoration proposal should address, as directly as possible, the injuries caused by a hazardous substance release. In other words, the resources restored and services generated by the restoration activities should be commensurate in type and amount with the reduction in services caused by the release. More specifically, the natural resource damage assessment regulations indicate that services should be used as the common currency for linking injury to restoration. The following conceptual steps may be followed to develop a primary restoration program that is linked to the injuries: Define the resources that were injured, and identify the services provided by those resources that were reduced by the injury. Define the baseline levels of the quantity of the resource, and the quantity of the services that would have been provided by the resource if the injury had not occurred. Quantify the interim lost value, which represents the reduction in services (compared to a baseline) from the time of the injury through the time of full recovery of the resources, assuming natural recovery. Evaluate the potential restoration projects for inclusion in the primary restoration program, which is designed to accelerate and enhance natural recovery of the resources and the flow of services from the resources

  11. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  12. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  13. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  14. Damage Stability Assessment of an HSC after Grounding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Erik Sonne; Simonsen, Bo Cerup; Baatrup, Jan

    2000-01-01

    Currently a substantial effort is done within the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) on revision of the High Speed Craft (HSC) Code. A main issue is the extent of bottom damage and raking damage due to grounding on hard rocks and the corresponding requirements to the damage stability...... of the vessel. It has been found that high-speed craft can experience a damage length up to 100% of the ship length. It has, however, also been argued that the damage stability requirements should reflect the size and probability of the damage with a reduction of the demand for the largest damages.......In the present paper a detailed grounding and damage stability analysis is carried out for two specific HSC, a mono-hull (86 m) and a catamaran (69 m). First various grounding scenarios are considered with different values of the forward speed and ground geometry. The results indicate that 100% bottom damage...

  15. A transportable system of models for natural resource damage assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, M.; French, D.

    1992-01-01

    A system of computer models has been developed for assessment of natural resource economic damages resulting from spills of oil and hazardous materials in marine and fresh water environments. Under USA federal legislation, the results of the model system are presumed correct in damage litigation proceedings. The model can address a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The equations describing the motion of both pollutants and biota are solved in three dimensions. The model can simulate continuous releases of a contaminant, with representation of complex coastal boundaries, variable bathymetry, multiple shoreline types, and spatially variable ecosystem habitats. A graphic user interface provides easy control of the system in addition to the ability to display elements of the underlying geographical information system data base. The model is implemented on a personal computer and on a UNIX workstation. The structure of the system is such that transport to new geographic regions can be accomplished relatively easily, requiring only the development of the appropriate physical, toxicological, biological, and economic data sets. Applications are currently in progress for USA inland and coastal waters, the Adriatic Sea, the Strait of Sicily, the Gulf of Suez, and the Baltic Sea. 4 refs., 2 figs

  16. MEMS-based sensors for post-earthquake damage assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pozzi, M; Zonta, D; Trapani, D [DIMS, University of Trento, Via Mesiano 77, 38123, Trento (Italy); Athanasopoulos, N; Garetsos, A; Stratakos, Y E [Advanced Microwave Systems Ltd, 2, 25th Martiou Street, 17778 Athens (Greece); Amditis, A J; Bimpas, M [ICCS, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytechniou Street, 15773 Zografou (Greece); Ulieru, D, E-mail: daniele.zonta@unitn.it [SITEX 45 SRL, 114 Ghica Tei Blvd, 72235 Bucharest (Romania)

    2011-07-19

    The evaluation of seismic damage is today almost exclusively based on visual inspection, as building owners are generally reluctant to install permanent sensing systems, due to their high installation, management and maintenance costs. To overcome this limitation, the EU-funded MEMSCON project aims to produce small size sensing nodes for measurement of strain and acceleration, integrating Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) based sensors and Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags in a single package that will be attached to reinforced concrete buildings and will transmit data using a wireless interface. During the first phase of the project completed so far, sensor prototypes were produced by assembling preexisting components. This paper outlines the device operating principles, production scheme and operation at both unit and network levels. It also reports on validation campaigns conducted in the laboratory to assess system performance. Accelerometer sensors were tested on a reduced scale metal frame mounted on a shaking table, while strain sensors were embedded in both reduced and full-scale reinforced concrete specimens undergoing increasing deformation cycles up to extensive damage and collapse. The performance of the sensors developed for the project and their applicability to long-term seismic monitoring are discussed.

  17. Assessing Risks of Mine Tailing Dam Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The consequences of tailings dam failures can be catastrophic for communities and ecosystems in the vicinity of the dams. The failure of the Fundão tailings dam at the Samarco mine in 2015 killed 19 people with severe consequences for the environment. The financial and legal consequences of a tailings dam failure can also be significant for the mining companies. For the Fundão tailings dam, the company had to pay 6 billion dollars in fines and twenty-one executives were charged with qualified murder. There are tenths of thousands of active, inactive, and abandoned tailings dams in the world and there is a need to better understand the hazards posed by these structures to downstream populations and ecosystems. A challenge to assess the risks of tailings dams in a large scale is that many of them are not registered in publicly available databases and there is little information about their current physical state. Additionally, hazard classifications of tailings dams - common in many countries- tend to be subjective, include vague parameter definitions, and are not always updated over time. Here we present a simple methodology to assess and rank the exposure to tailings dams using ArcGIS that removes subjective interpretations. The method uses basic information such as current dam height, storage volume, topography, population, land use, and hydrological data. A hazard rating risk was developed to compare the potential extent of the damage across dams. This assessment provides a general overview of what in the vicinity of the tailings dams could be affected in case of a failure and a way to rank tailings dams that is directly linked to the exposure at any given time. One hundred tailings dams in Minas Gerais, Brazil were used for the test case. This ranking approach could inform the risk management strategy of the tailings dams within a company, and when disclosed, it could enable shareholders and the communities to make decisions on the risks they are taking.

  18. HSE assessment of explosion risk analysis in offshore safety cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brighton, P.W.M.; Fearnley, P.J.; Brearley, I.G. [Health and Safety Executive, Bootle (United Kingdom). Offshore Safety Div.

    1995-12-31

    In the past two years HSE has assessed around 250 Safety Cases for offshore oil and gas installations, building up a unique overview of the current state of the art on fire and explosion risk assessment. This paper reviews the explosion risk methods employed, focusing on the aspects causing most difficulty for assessment and acceptance of Safety Cases. Prediction of overpressures in offshore explosions has been intensively researched in recent years but the justification of the means of prevention, control and mitigation of explosions often depends on much additional analysis of the frequency and damage potential of explosions. This involves a number of factors, the five usually considered being: leak sizes; gas dispersion; ignition probabilities; the frequency distribution of explosion strength; and the prediction of explosion damage. Sources of major uncertainty in these factors and their implications for practical risk management decisions are discussed. (author)

  19. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  20. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  1. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  2. Flood hazards and masonry constructions: a probabilistic framework for damage, risk and resilience at urban scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mebarki

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the failure risk of masonry constructions under the effect of floods. It is developed within a probabilistic framework, with loads and resistances considered as random variables. Two complementary approaches have been investigated for this purpose:

    – a global approach based on combined effects of several governing parameters with individual weighted contribution (material quality and geometry, presence and distance between columns, beams, openings, resistance of the soil and its slope. . .,
    – and a reliability method using the failure mechanism of masonry walls standing out-plane pressure.

    The evolution of the probability of failure of masonry constructions according to the flood water level is analysed.

    The analysis of different failure probability scenarios for masonry walls is conducted to calibrate the influence of each "vulnerability governing parameter" in the global approach that is widely used in risk assessment at the urban or regional scale.

    The global methodology is implemented in a GIS that provides the spatial distribution of damage risk for different flood scenarios. A real case is considered for the simulations, i.e. Cheffes sur Sarthe (France, for which the observed river discharge, the hydraulic load according to the Digital Terrain Model, and the structural resistance are considered as random variables. The damage probability values provided by both approaches are compared. Discussions are also developed about reduction and mitigation of the flood disaster at various scales (set of structures, city, region as well as resilience.

  3. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  4. Health impact and damage cost assessment of pesticides in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fantke, Peter; Friedrich, Rainer; Jolliet, Olivier

    2012-11-15

    Health impacts from pesticide use are of continuous concern in the European population, requiring a constant evaluation of European pesticide policy. However, health impacts have never been quantified accounting for specific crops contributing differently to overall human exposure as well as accounting for individual substances showing distinct environmental behavior and toxicity. We quantify health impacts and related damage costs from exposure to 133 pesticides applied in 24 European countries in 2003 adding up to almost 50% of the total pesticide mass applied in that year. Only 13 substances applied to 3 crop classes (grapes/vines, fruit trees, vegetables) contribute to 90% of the overall health impacts of about 2000 disability-adjusted life years in Europe per year corresponding to annual damage costs of 78 million Euro. Considering uncertainties along the full impact pathway mainly attributable to non-cancer dose-response relationships and residues in treated crops, we obtain an average burden of lifetime lost per person of 2.6 hours (95% confidence interval between 22 seconds and 45.3 days) or costs per person over lifetime of 12 Euro (95% confidence interval between 0.03 Euro and 5142 Euro), respectively. 33 of the 133 assessed substances accounting for 20% of health impacts in 2003 are now banned from the European market according to current legislation. The main limitation in assessing human health impacts from pesticides is related to the lack of systematic application data for all used substances. Since health impacts can be substantially influenced by the choice of pesticides, the need for more information about substance application becomes evident. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  6. VT Ice Damage Assessment from the 1998 Ice Storm

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) This dataset (ICEDAMAG98) depicts the extent and severity of tree damage caused by the 1998 ice storm, which resulted in extensive tree damage in...

  7. Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

    2016-04-01

    Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs

  8. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  9. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  10. The comet assay: assessment of in vitro and in vivo DNA damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajpayee, Mahima; Kumar, Ashutosh; Dhawan, Alok

    2013-01-01

    Rapid industrialization and pursuance of a better life have led to an increase in the amount of chemicals in the environment, which are deleterious to human health. Pesticides, automobile exhausts, and new chemical entities all add to air pollution and have an adverse effect on all living organisms including humans. Sensitive test systems are thus required for accurate hazard identification and risk assessment. The Comet assay has been used widely as a simple, rapid, and sensitive tool for assessment of DNA damage in single cells from both in vitro and in vivo sources as well as in humans. Already, the in vivo comet assay has gained importance as the preferred test for assessing DNA damage in animals for some international regulatory guidelines. The advantages of the in vivo comet assay are its ability to detect DNA damage in any tissue, despite having non-proliferating cells, and its sensitivity to detect genotoxicity. The recommendations from the international workshops held for the comet assay have resulted in establishment of guidelines. The in vitro comet assay conducted in cultured cells and cell lines can be used for screening large number of compounds and at very low concentrations. The in vitro assay has also been automated to provide a high-throughput screening method for new chemical entities, as well as environmental samples. This chapter details the in vitro comet assay using the 96-well plate and in vivo comet assay in multiple organs of the mouse.

  11. Vibration Based Damage Assessment of a Cantilever using a Neural Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Rytter, A.

    In this paper the possibility of using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network trained with with the Backpropagation Algorithm as a non-destructive damage assessment technique to locate and quantify a damage in structures is investigated.......In this paper the possibility of using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network trained with with the Backpropagation Algorithm as a non-destructive damage assessment technique to locate and quantify a damage in structures is investigated....

  12. Social Media as Seismic Networks for the Earthquake Damage Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meletti, C.; Cresci, S.; La Polla, M. N.; Marchetti, A.; Tesconi, M.

    2014-12-01

    The growing popularity of online platforms, based on user-generated content, is gradually creating a digital world that mirrors the physical world. In the paradigm of crowdsensing, the crowd becomes a distributed network of sensors that allows us to understand real life events at a quasi-real-time rate. The SoS-Social Sensing project [http://socialsensing.it/] exploits the opportunistic crowdsensing, involving users in the sensing process in a minimal way, for social media emergency management purposes in order to obtain a very fast, but still reliable, detection of emergency dimension to face. First of all we designed and implemented a decision support system for the detection and the damage assessment of earthquakes. Our system exploits the messages shared in real-time on Twitter. In the detection phase, data mining and natural language processing techniques are firstly adopted to select meaningful and comprehensive sets of tweets. Then we applied a burst detection algorithm in order to promptly identify outbreaking seismic events. Using georeferenced tweets and reported locality names, a rough epicentral determination is also possible. The results, compared to Italian INGV official reports, show that the system is able to detect, within seconds, events of a magnitude in the region of 3.5 with a precision of 75% and a recall of 81,82%. We then focused our attention on damage assessment phase. We investigated the possibility to exploit social media data to estimate earthquake intensity. We designed a set of predictive linear models and evaluated their ability to map the intensity of worldwide earthquakes. The models build on a dataset of almost 5 million tweets exploited to compute our earthquake features, and more than 7,000 globally distributed earthquakes data, acquired in a semi-automatic way from USGS, serving as ground truth. We extracted 45 distinct features falling into four categories: profile, tweet, time and linguistic. We run diagnostic tests and

  13. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  14. Assessment of the material properties of a fire damaged building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oladipupo OLOMO

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This study identifies a process for assessing the material properties of a fire damaged building so as to determine whether the remains can be utilized in construction or be demolished. Physical and chemical analysis were carried out on concrete and steel samples taken from various elements of the building after thorough visual inspection of the entire building had been conducted. The physical (non-destructive tests included the Schmidt hammer and ultrasonic pulse velocity tests on the concrete samples, tensile strength test on the steel samples and chemical tests involving the assessment of the quantities of cement, sulphates and chloride concentrations in the samples. A redesign of the building elements was also carried out and the results were compared with the existing design. The non-destructive test results indicated compressive strengths as low as 9.9 N/mm2, the tensile strength test indicated a maximum strength of 397.48 N/mm2 and the chemical test indicated chloride contents as high as 0.534 g per gramme of concrete. These properties deviated significantly from standard requirements. Based on these results, it was concluded that the remains of the building should be demolished.

  15. Cryogenic Risk Assessments before Works in the LHC Tunnel

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Tests conducted in 2013/4 demonstrated that a small, residual risk to expose personnel to a helium spill exists in the LHC. Helium spills with a mass flow of less than 100 g s^-1 could be caused by workers accidentally damaging sensitive equipment in the cryogenic distribution system, such as instrumentation feedthroughs. In order to control this risk, a cryogenic risk assessment for all works taking place in the vicinity of such sensitive equipment is mandatory. The risk assessment and its recommendations are approved by the hierarchy and the complex manager before work can start. After introducing the risk assessment procedure, I will give some feedback on its implementation and present status.

  16. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  17. Probabilistic Risk Assessment on Maritime Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christian, Robby; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management has been an indispensable issue in South Korea. Before a long term SNF solution is implemented, there exists the need to distribute the spent fuel pool storage loads. Transportation of SNF assemblies from populated pools to vacant ones may preferably be done through the maritime mode since all nuclear power plants in South Korea are located at coastal sites. To determine its feasibility, it is necessary to assess risks of the maritime SNF transportation. This work proposes a methodology to assess the risk arising from ship collisions during the transportation of SNF by sea. Its scope is limited to the damage probability of SNF packages given a collision event. The effect of transport parameters' variation to the package damage probability was investigated to obtain insights into possible ways to minimize risks. A reference vessel and transport cask are given in a case study to illustrate the methodology's application.

  18. Assessment of folic acid and DNA damage in cleft lip and cleft palate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sivakumar Brooklyin

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Studies have identified the risk factors like folic acid deficiency during gestational period, family history for orofacial clefts, drugs like antiepileptic, vitamin A. But, the data regarding the folic acid status in children with cleft lip/palate is hardly evaluated in depth. Here, an assessment of folic acid and DNA damage were carried out in children with orofacial anomalies. Folic acid level and DNA damage were evaluated by folic acid assay (direct chemiluminescent technology and single cell gel electrophoresis or comet assay method respectively. The mean value of plasma folic acid by direct chemiluminescent technology was 6.5±3.6 nmol/L and the normal value in children ranges from 11.3 to 47.6 nmol/L. The amount of damaged DNA, measured as the tail length of the comet in cases, was 19.4±8.9 ?m and the mean percentage of DNA in tail was 16.5±3.7. Folic acid deficiency could be the reason for DNA damage.

  19. Effectiveness of FDA's new over-the-counter acetaminophen warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyal, R K; Rajan, S S; Essien, E J; Sansgiry, S S

    2012-12-01

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued new organ-specific warning label requirements for over-the-counter (OTC) analgesic products in order to make consumers aware of the risk of liver damage when using acetaminophen. However, awareness of a health risk alone cannot ensure consumers' engagement in safe and preventive behaviour. In this study, we attempted to: (i) measure consumer risk perception of liver damage due to the OTC acetaminophen products and (ii) analyse the effectiveness of the new organ-specific warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage and intention to perform protective behaviours while using OTC acetaminophen products. This within-subject experimental study used a convenience sample of English-speaking adults visiting OTC segments of selected pharmacy stores in Houston. Participants were randomly exposed to the old and new warning labels and their respective risk perception (measured on a visual analogue scale, 0%, no risk, to 100%, extreme risk) and behavioural intention (measured on a 7-point Likert scale) were recorded using a validated, self-administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were performed using sas statistical software (v 9.2) at a priori significance level of 0.05. Majority of participants (74.4%) were not aware of the new warnings; however, majority (67.8%) had prior knowledge of the risk. The mean risk perception score for the new warning label was found to be significantly higher (72.2% vs. 65.9%, P risk perception of potential liver damage and may encourage protective behaviour. However, future studies are essential to assess the impact of the new label on actual changes in consumer behaviour and subsequent reduction in acetaminophen-related morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  1. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  2. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  3. An employee/trade union perspective to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aro, Pekka O.

    1992-01-01

    Risk assessment does not easily lend itself to precise description. In some of its current forms of application, it is little more than a modern way of throwing bones or looking at tea leaves or the entrails of sheep, like our ancestors used to do not so many centuries ago (the only real difference being perhaps that laboratory rats are cheaper and less messy than sheep). A its best, however, risk assessment can be used as a good tool to identify the needs for changes required to reduce hazards and to prevent accidents to humans or damage to the environment. This paper approaches risk assessment as a tool, highlighting the need and usefulness as well as the right of employees and their representatives to participate in all the steps involved in assessing the risks of the workplace and its environment

  4. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  5. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  6. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment For Emergency Preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Joomyung; Jae, Moosung; Ahn, Kwangil

    2013-01-01

    The importance of nuclear power plant PSA has grown up all over the world due to this incident. The main concern of this study is to develop a methodology to carry on an emergency preparedness evaluation and to set an exclusive area, or the emergency response area boundary in order to apply it to domestic reference plants. This study also focuses on evaluating the risk parameter of major nuclides through a sensitivity analysis and a safety assessment by calculating the population dose, early fatality, and cancer fatality rates. A methodology for an emergency preparedness, which can be applied to evaluate the damage of the radioactive release as well as to assess the safety of the accident scenario of a nuclear power plant, has been developed and applied for the reference plants in Korea. By applying a source term analysis, an exclusive zone based on the radioactive dose is obtained. And the results of the health effect assessment based on the release fraction of specific nuclides to public with an effective emergency response activity have been simulated. A methodology utilizing the Level 3 PSA with the actual emergency response activities has been developed and applied to typical nuclear accident situations. The plausible standard for performing an emergency plan is suggested and the valuable information regarding emergency preparedness has been produced in this study. For further works, the sensitivity study on important parameters will be performed to simulate the actual severe accident situations such as sheltering, evacuation, and emergency response activities

  7. Tsunami vulnerability and damage assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Atillah

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study, a companion paper to Renou et al. (2011, focuses on the application of a GIS-based method to assess building vulnerability and damage in the event of a tsunami affecting the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco. This approach, designed within the framework of the European SCHEMA project (www.schemaproject.org is based on the combination of hazard results from numerical modelling of the worst case tsunami scenario (inundation depth based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Portugal earthquake of 1969, together with vulnerability building types derived from Earth Observation data, field surveys and GIS data. The risk is then evaluated for this highly concentrated population area characterized by the implementation of a vast project of residential and touristic buildings within the flat area of the Bouregreg Valley separating the cities of Rabat and Salé. A GIS tool is used to derive building damage maps by crossing layers of inundation levels and building vulnerability. The inferred damage maps serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes and to prepare and consider appropriate measures to prevent the induced tsunami risk.

  8. Numerical Modelling and Damage Assessment of Rotary Wing Aircraft Cabin Door Using Continuum Damage Mechanics Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyina, Gangadhara Rao T.; Rayavarapu, Vijaya Kumar; V. V., Subba Rao

    2017-02-01

    The prediction of ultimate strength remains the main challenge in the simulation of the mechanical response of composite structures. This paper examines continuum damage model to predict the strength and size effects for deformation and failure response of polymer composite laminates when subjected to complex state of stress. The paper also considers how the overall results of the exercise can be applied in design applications. The continuum damage model is described and the resulting prediction of size effects are compared against the standard benchmark solutions. The stress analysis for strength prediction of rotary wing aircraft cabin door is carried out. The goal of this study is to extend the proposed continuum damage model such that it can be accurately predict the failure around stress concentration regions. The finite element-based continuum damage mechanics model can be applied to the structures and components of arbitrary configurations where analytical solutions could not be developed.

  9. Methodology for a GIS-based damage assessment for researchers following large scale disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Patrick Shane

    The 1990s were designated the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction by the United Nations General Assembly. This push for decrease of loss of life, property destruction, and social and economic disruption brought advancements in disaster management, including damage assessment. Damage assessment in the wake of natural and manmade disasters is a useful tool for government agencies, insurance companies, and researchers. As technologies evolve damage assessment processes constantly evolve as well. Alongside the advances in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, as well as the growing awareness of the needs of a standard operating procedure for GIS-based damage assessment and a need to make the damage assessment process as quick and accurate as possible, damage assessment procedures are becoming easier to execute and the results are becoming more accurate and robust. With these technological breakthroughs, multi-disciplinary damage assessment reconnaissance teams have become more efficient in their assessment methods through better organization and more robust through addition of new datasets. Damage assessment personnel are aided by software tools that offer high-level analysis and increasingly rapid damage assessment methods. GIS software has advanced the damage assessment methods of these teams by combining remotely sensed aerial imagery, GPS, and other technologies to expand the uses of the data. GIS allows researchers to use aerial imagery to show field collected data in the geographic location that it was collected so that information can be revisited, measurements can be taken, and data can be disseminated to other researchers and the public. The GIS-based data available to the reconnaissance team includes photographs of damage, worksheets, calculations, voice messages collected while studying the affected area, and many other datasets which are based on the type of disaster and the

  10. Ultraviolet Radiation-Induced Cytogenetic Damage in White, Hispanic and Black Skin Melanocytes: A Risk for Cutaneous Melanoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dasgupta, Amrita [Hampton University Skin of Color Research Institute, Hampton, VA 23668 (United States); Katdare, Meena, E-mail: mkatdare@gmail.com [Hampton University Skin of Color Research Institute, Hampton, VA 23668 (United States); Department of Dermatology, Eastern Virginia Medical School, Norfolk, VA 23507 (United States)

    2015-08-14

    Cutaneous Melanoma (CM) is a leading cause of cancer deaths, with reports indicating a rising trend in the incidence rate of melanoma among Hispanics in certain U.S. states. The level of melanin pigmentation in the skin is suggested to render photoprotection from the DNA-damaging effects of Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR). UVR-induced DNA damage leads to cytogenetic defects visualized as the formation of micronuclei, multinuclei and polymorphic nuclei in cells, and a hallmark of cancer risk. The causative relationship between Sun exposure and CM is controversial, especially in Hispanics and needs further evaluation. This study was initiated with melanocytes from White, Hispanic and Black neonatal foreskins which were exposed to UVR to assess their susceptibility to UVR-induced modulation of cellular growth, cytogenetic damage, intracellular and released melanin. Our results show that White and Hispanic skin melanocytes with similar levels of constitutive melanin are susceptible to UVR-induced cytogenetic damage, whereas Black skin melanocytes are not. Our data suggest that the risk of developing UVR-induced CM in a skin type is correlated with the level of cutaneous pigmentation and its ethnic background. This study provides a benchmark for further investigation on the damaging effects of UVR as risk for CM in Hispanics.

  11. Ultraviolet Radiation-Induced Cytogenetic Damage in White, Hispanic and Black Skin Melanocytes: A Risk for Cutaneous Melanoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dasgupta, Amrita; Katdare, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Cutaneous Melanoma (CM) is a leading cause of cancer deaths, with reports indicating a rising trend in the incidence rate of melanoma among Hispanics in certain U.S. states. The level of melanin pigmentation in the skin is suggested to render photoprotection from the DNA-damaging effects of Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR). UVR-induced DNA damage leads to cytogenetic defects visualized as the formation of micronuclei, multinuclei and polymorphic nuclei in cells, and a hallmark of cancer risk. The causative relationship between Sun exposure and CM is controversial, especially in Hispanics and needs further evaluation. This study was initiated with melanocytes from White, Hispanic and Black neonatal foreskins which were exposed to UVR to assess their susceptibility to UVR-induced modulation of cellular growth, cytogenetic damage, intracellular and released melanin. Our results show that White and Hispanic skin melanocytes with similar levels of constitutive melanin are susceptible to UVR-induced cytogenetic damage, whereas Black skin melanocytes are not. Our data suggest that the risk of developing UVR-induced CM in a skin type is correlated with the level of cutaneous pigmentation and its ethnic background. This study provides a benchmark for further investigation on the damaging effects of UVR as risk for CM in Hispanics

  12. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krupnick, A.J.; Markandya, A.; Nickell, E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report

  13. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krupnick, A J; Markandya, A; Nickell, E

    1994-07-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report.

  14. Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2013-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments

  15. Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

    2010-01-01

    Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

  16. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  17. Beyond the MEGA BORG: The future of cooperative damage assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, J.P.; Seiler, R.; Mauseth, G.

    1993-01-01

    Prespill planning and coordination are the major requirements of industry and government to ensure future cooperative natural resource damage assessments (NRDA). Since oil spills most often occur without warning, both parties must be prepared prior to an oil spill into the environment. Federal and State co-trustees should enter into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to ensure cooperation and coordination among trustees in all NRDA activities. The MOU should provide the framework whereby each trustee's resource interests can be represented. Ideally, MOUs should be prepared during the prespill planning process, although the MEGA BORG MOU was prepared soon after the actual discharge. The establishment of co-trustee working groups will foster the positive working relationships necessary in cooperative NRDAs. The trustees should identify all potential co-trustees in a given area and agree on a mechanism for trustee notification. Criteria for the rapid designation of the Lead Administrative Trustee and approaches for coordination with response agencies and potential responsible parties (PRPs) need to be developed. Most importantly, the trustees should identify PRPs and invite their participation in the prespill planning process

  18. Assessment of injury from the MEGA BORG oil spill: A case of cooperative damage assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mauseth, G.S.

    1993-01-01

    The tanker MEGA BORG exploded while lightering about 60 miles offshore of Galveston, Texas on 8 June 1990. The explosion was followed by a spectacular fire and major release of Angolan crude. Up to 5.1 million gallons of the 41 million gallon cargo was lost to the sea or burning over a period of seven days. Vessel interests took responsibility for the spill and employed skimming and dispersive cleanup techniques. It is estimated that approximately 126 gallons ultimately reached shore in western Louisiana. Within a day of the explosion, the Norwegian vessel owner, French cargo owner and the Norwegian vessel insurer entered into discussion with the Texas Water Commission and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration regarding damage assessment options. Within the next two days the owners agreed to fund and participate in a cooperative preliminary assessment of environmental injury. Five projects were funded to determine whether there was sufficient injury to justify the completion of a full natural resource damage assessment: (1) Fate of spilled oil; (2) Effects on shrimp fishery; (3) Effects on marine mammals and turtles; (4) Effects of beach oiling and (5) Effects on recreation. Funds were also provided for report preparation and project management. Several issues of major concern were considered by vessel interests prior to agreement. Many of these issues are common to consideration of cooperative assessments and may be critical importance to future incidents particularly if the damage assessment regulations developed pursuant to the Oil Pollution Act encourage cooperative responses

  19. Experimental assessment of borehole wall drilling damage in basaltic rocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuenkajorn, K.; Daemen, J.J.K.

    1986-06-01

    Ring tension tests, permeability tests, and microscopic fracture studies have been performed to investigate the borehole damage induced at low confining pressure by three drilling techniques (diamond, percussion and rotary). Specimens are drilled with three hole sizes (38, 76, and 102 mm diameter) in Pomona basalt and Grande basaltic andesite. The damaged zone is characterized in terms of fractures and fracture patterns around the hole, and in terms of tensile strength reduction of the rock around the holes. Experimental results show that the thickness of the damaged zone around the hole ranges from 0.0 to 1.7 mm. A larger drill bit induces more wall damage than does a smaller one. Different drilling techniques show different damage characteristics (intensity and distribution). Damage characteristics are governed not only by drilling parameters (bit size, weight on bit, rotational speed, diamond radius, and energy), but also by properties of the rock. The weaker rock tends to show more intense damage than does the stronger one. Cracks within grains or cleavage fractures are predominant in slightly coarser grained rock (larger than 0.5 mm grain size) while intergranular cracks are predominant in very fine grained rock (smaller than 0.01 mm grain size). The damaged zones play no significant role in the flow path around a borehole plug

  20. Assessment of DNA damage by panmasala, gutkha chewing and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In the present study the comet assay was performed in buccal epithelial cells to evaluate DNA damage among pan masala or gutkha chewers and smokers. The assay is a rapid, suitable and sensitive method for detecting various forms of DNA damage at individual cell level. The study comprises 300 individuals of which 50 ...

  1. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  2. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  3. A survey of ecological risk assessment at DOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Bascietto, J.; Joseph, T.; Bilyard, G.

    1992-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Risk-Based Standards Working Group is studying standard-setting and remedial action based on realistic estimates of human health and ecological risks. Federal and state regulations require DOE to assess ecological risks due to present and past operation of DOE facilities and ecological damage caused by remedial actions. Unfortunately, little technical guidance has been provided by regulatory agencies about how these assessments should be performed or what constitutes an adequate assessment. Active ecological research, environmental characterization, and ecological risk assessment programs are already underway at many locations. Some of these programs were established more than 30 years ago. Because of the strength of its existing programs and the depth of expertise available within the DOE complex, the agency is in a position to lead in developing ecological risk assessment procedures that are fully consistent with the general principles defined by EPA and that will ensure environmentally sound and cost-effective restoration of its sites. As a prelude to guidance development, the working group conducted a survey of ecological risk assessment activities at a subset of major DOE facilities. The survey was intended to (1) identify approaches now being used in ecological risk assessments performed by DOE staff and contractors at each site, (2) record successes and failures of these approaches, (3) identify new technical developments with potential for general application to many DOE facilities, and (4) identify major data needs, data resources, and methodological deficiencies

  4. DNA Damage among Wood Workers Assessed with the Comet Assay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruschweiler, Evin Danisman; Wild, Pascal; Huynh, Cong Khanh; Savova-Bianchi, Dessislava; Danuser, Brigitta; Hopf, Nancy B.

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to wood dust, a human carcinogen, is common in wood-related industries, and millions of workers are occupationally exposed to wood dust worldwide. The comet assay is a rapid, simple, and sensitive method for determining DNA damage. The objective of this study was to investigate the DNA damage associated with occupational exposure to wood dust using the comet assay (peripheral blood samples) among nonsmoking wood workers (n = 31, furniture and construction workers) and controls (n = 19). DNA damage was greater in the group exposed to composite wood products compared to the group exposed to natural woods and controls (P < 0.001). No difference in DNA damage was observed between workers exposed to natural woods and controls (P = 0.13). Duration of exposure and current dust concentrations had no effect on DNA damage. In future studies, workers’ exposures should include cumulative dust concentrations and exposures originating from the binders used in composite wood products. PMID:27398027

  5. Using ultrasonic attenuation for assessing the fatigue damage of concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suaris, W.; Fernando, V.

    1987-01-01

    The results from cyclic loading tests indicate that damage accumulation as measured by pulse attenuation during cyclic loading is not linear, particularly during the initial cycles. The crack growth results obtained may be used for ascertaining the extent of damage in a in-situ structure using the following procedure: The ultrasonic waveforms obtained from a damaged region can first be compared with that obtained from the same region initially to yield a damage coefficient. Then the calibration charts obtained from laboratory specimens may be used to predict the extent of damage due to cyclic loading. The proposed method can also easily be extended to predict the deterioration due to shrinkage, creep and other environmental effects as long as their effect is to produce cracking in the concrete. (orig./HP)

  6. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  7. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  8. Leisure noise exposure: participation trends, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Elizabeth Francis; Gilliver, Megan; Williams, Warwick

    2013-02-01

    Leisure activities that emit high noise levels have the potential to expose participants to excessive noise exposure, which can result in hearing damage. This study investigated young people's participation in high-noise leisure activities and the relationship between their leisure noise exposure, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk. Participants completed an online survey relating to participation in selected high-noise leisure activities, symptoms of hearing damage, and beliefs about the risk posed by these activities. One thousand 18- to 35-year-old Australian adults completed the survey. Annual noise exposure from the five leisure activities ranged from 0-6.77 times the acceptable noise exposure, with nightclubs posing the greatest risk. Those who attended one noisy activity were more likely to attend others, in particular nightclubs, pubs, and live music events. Noise exposure was correlated with early warning signs of hearing damage and perceived risk of damage. Active young adults who engage in noisy activities are showing early signs of hearing damage. Furthermore, they perceive the risk associated with their activities. The challenge for researchers and hearing health practitioners is to convert self-perceived risk into positive hearing health behaviours for long-term hearing health.

  9. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  10. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  11. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  12. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  13. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  14. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  15. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment of earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant and subsequent upgrade to reduce risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Day, S.A.

    1989-01-01

    An analysis to determine the risk associated with earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant was performed. Seismic analyses and structural evaluations were used to postulate building and equipment damage and radiological releases to the environment from various magnitudes of earthquakes. Dispersion modeling and dose assessment to the public were then calculated. The frequency of occurrence of various magnitudes of earthquakes were determined from the Department of Energy natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project. Risk to the public was probabilistically assessed for each magnitude of earthquake and for overall seismic risk. Based on the results of this Probabilistic Risk Assessment and a cost/benefit analysis, seismic upgrades are being implemented for several plutonium-handling facilities for the purpose of risk reduction

  17. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-01-01

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  18. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  19. Assessment of damage from reduction of expected lifespan due to cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Alengordovich Korobitsyn

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer

  20. Photoacoustic imaging for assessing ischemic kidney damage in vivo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndl, Elizabeth S. L.; He, Xiaolin; Yuen, Darren A.; Kolios, Michael C.

    2018-02-01

    Ischemic reperfusion injuries (IRIs) occur after blood returns to a tissue or organ after a period without oxygen or nutrients, which causes an inflammatory response leading to heterogeneous scarring of the nearby tissue and vasculature. This is associated with long-term decreases blood flow, and necrosis. Although most commonly associated with heart attacks and strokes, IRIs are also a side effect of organ transplants, when the organ is reperfused in the recipient's body after being transported from the donor to the transplant hospital. Currently, the optimal method of monitoring for IRI is limited to biopsies, which are invasive and poorly monitor the spatial heterogeneity of the damage. To non-invasively identify changes in kidneys, the left renal artery in mice (n=3) was clamped for 45 minutes to create an IRI event. Both kidneys of each animal were monitored using photoacoustics (PA) with the VevoLAZR system (Fujifilm-VisualSonics, Toronto) three, four and eight weeks after surgery. IRI-treated kidneys show increased picosirius red staining, indicative of collagen (0.601 vs 0.042, p < 0.0001), decreased size as assessed by cross-sectional area (7.8 mm2 vs 35.9 mm2 , p < 0.0001), and decreased oxygen saturation (sO2; 62% vs 77%, p = 0.02). Analysis of the photoacoustic data shows that a two-point metric, the 715:930 nm ratio of the whole kidney (1.05 vs 0.57, p = 0.049) and the optical spectral slope (OSS) (0.8 * 10-3 vs 3.0 * 10-3, p = 0.013) are both able to differentiate between IRI-treated and healthy kidneys. These data suggest that photoacoustics can be used as a non-invasive method to observe in vivo changes in the kidney due to IRI.

  1. UAV-based urban structural damage assessment using object-based image analysis and semantic reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez Galarreta, J.; Kerle, N.; Gerke, M.

    2015-06-01

    Structural damage assessment is critical after disasters but remains a challenge. Many studies have explored the potential of remote sensing data, but limitations of vertical data persist. Oblique imagery has been identified as more useful, though the multi-angle imagery also adds a new dimension of complexity. This paper addresses damage assessment based on multi-perspective, overlapping, very high resolution oblique images obtained with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). 3-D point-cloud assessment for the entire building is combined with detailed object-based image analysis (OBIA) of façades and roofs. This research focuses not on automatic damage assessment, but on creating a methodology that supports the often ambiguous classification of intermediate damage levels, aiming at producing comprehensive per-building damage scores. We identify completely damaged structures in the 3-D point cloud, and for all other cases provide the OBIA-based damage indicators to be used as auxiliary information by damage analysts. The results demonstrate the usability of the 3-D point-cloud data to identify major damage features. Also the UAV-derived and OBIA-processed oblique images are shown to be a suitable basis for the identification of detailed damage features on façades and roofs. Finally, we also demonstrate the possibility of aggregating the multi-perspective damage information at building level.

  2. Pest damage assessment in fruits and vegetables using thermal imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadakkapattu Canthadai, Badrinath; Muthuraju, M. Esakki; Pachava, Vengalrao; Sengupta, Dipankar

    2015-05-01

    In some fruits and vegetables, it is difficult to visually identify the ones which are pest infested. This particular aspect is important for quarantine and commercial operations. In this article, we propose to present the results of a novel technique using thermal imaging camera to detect the nature and extent of pest damage in fruits and vegetables, besides indicating the level of maturity and often the presence of the pest. Our key idea relies on the fact that there is a difference in the heat capacity of normal and damaged ones and also observed the change in surface temperature over time that is slower in damaged ones. This paper presents the concept of non-destructive evaluation using thermal imaging technique for identifying pest damage levels of fruits and vegetables based on investigations carried out on random samples collected from a local market.

  3. Development of risk assessment simulation tool for optimal control of a low probability-high consequence disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yotsumoto, Hiroki; Yoshida, Kikuo; Genchi, Hiroshi

    2011-01-01

    In order to control low probability-high consequence disaster which causes huge social and economic damage, it is necessary to develop simultaneous risk assessment simulation tool based on the scheme of disaster risk including diverse effects of primary disaster and secondary damages. We propose the scheme of this risk simulation tool. (author)

  4. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  5. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  6. Lamb Wave Assessment of Fatigue and Thermal Damage in Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seale, Michael D.; Smith, Barry T.; Prosser, W. H.

    2004-01-01

    Among the various techniques available, ultrasonic Lamb waves offer a convenient method of evaluating composite materials. Since the Lamb wave velocity depends on the elastic properties of a structure, an effective tool exists to monitor damage in composites by measuring the velocity of these waves. Lamb wave measurements can propagate over long distances and are sensitive to the desired in-plane elastic properties of the material. This paper describes two studies which monitor fatigue damage and two studies which monitor thermal damage in composites using Lamb waves. In the fatigue studies, the Lamb wave velocity is compared to modulus measurements obtained using strain gage measurements in the first experiment and the velocity is monitored along with the crack density in the second. In the thermal damage studies, one examines samples which were exposed to varying temperatures for a three minute duration and the second includes rapid thermal damage in composites by intense laser beams. In all studies, the Lamb wave velocity is demonstrated to be an excellent method to monitor damage in composites.

  7. Earthquake risk assessment of Alexandria, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Gaber, Hanan; Ibrahim, Hamza

    2015-01-01

    Throughout historical and recent times, Alexandria has suffered great damage due to earthquakes from both near- and far-field sources. Sometimes, the sources of such damages are not well known. During the twentieth century, the city was shaken by several earthquakes generated from inland dislocations (e.g., 29 Apr. 1974, 12 Oct. 1992, and 28 Dec. 1999) and the African continental margin (e.g., 12 Sept. 1955 and 28 May 1998). Therefore, this study estimates the earthquake ground shaking and the consequent impacts in Alexandria on the basis of two earthquake scenarios. The simulation results show that Alexandria affected by both earthquakes scenarios relatively in the same manner despite the number of casualties during the first scenario (inland dislocation) is twice larger than the second one (African continental margin). An expected percentage of 2.27 from Alexandria's total constructions (12.9 millions, 2006 Census) will be affected, 0.19 % injuries and 0.01 % deaths of the total population (4.1 millions, 2006 Census) estimated by running the first scenario. The earthquake risk profile reveals that three districts (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) lie in high seismic risks, two districts (Gharb and Wasat) are in moderate, and two districts (Al-Gomrok and Burg El-Arab) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Al-Montazah is the highest vulnerable district whereas 73 % of expected damages were reported there. The undertaken analysis shows that the Alexandria urban area faces high risk. Informal areas and deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated earthquake risks (buildings damages) are concentrated at the most densely populated (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts.

  8. Inter-system LOCA risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Kelly, D.L.; Schroeder, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    Inter-systems loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been included in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) since WASH-1400. While estimated as being relatively low contributors to core damage frequency, ISLOCAs have been identified as major contributors to risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs). They have the potential to result in core melt and containment bypass, which may lead to the early release of large quantities of fission products. Recent events at several operating reactors have been identified as ISLOCA precursors. The occurrence of these events have raised concerns that the frequency of ISLOCA sequences might be underestimated in current state-of-the-art PRAs. In order to expand the current state-of-the-art, a Nuclear Regulatory Commission research program is being conducted by ED and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The objective of the ISLOCA research program is to generate qualitative and quantitative information on the hardware, human factors, and accident consequence issues that dominate nuclear power plant risks for ISLOCA. To meet this objective, the approach being taken includes analysis of all interfaces between the primary reactor coolant system and other, lower pressure systems. This historical experience (primarily, licensee event reports) has provided the basis for determining the scope of the analysis with respect to potential failure mechanisms of the pressure isolation boundary. It is important to note that in the vast majority of these events, the dominant failure was a human error. Because of their significance, human errors are given particular attention in the present analysis

  9. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  10. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  11. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  12. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  13. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  14. Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Seismic Damage for Buildings in Mid-America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bai, Jong-Wha; Hueste, Mary Beth D.; Gardoni, Paolo

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides an approach to conduct a probabilistic assessment of structural damage due to seismic events with an application to typical building structures in Mid-America. The developed methodology includes modified damage state classifications based on the ATC-13 and ATC-38 damage states and the ATC-38 database of building damage. Damage factors are assigned to each damage state to quantify structural damage as a percentage of structural replacement cost. To account for the inherent uncertainties, these factors are expressed as random variables with a Beta distribution. A set of fragility curves, quantifying the structural vulnerability of a building, is mapped onto the developed methodology to determine the expected structural damage. The total structural damage factor for a given seismic intensity is then calculated using a probabilistic approach. Prediction and confidence bands are also constructed to account for the prevailing uncertainties. The expected seismic structural damage is assessed for a typical building structure in the Mid-America region using the developed methodology. The developed methodology provides a transparent procedure, where the structural damage factors can be updated as additional seismic damage data becomes available

  15. The Assessment of Primary DNA Damage in Medical Personnel Occupationally Exposed to Ionizing Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopjar, N.; Garaj-Vrhovac, V.

    2003-01-01

    In physico-chemical interaction with cellular DNA ionizing radiation produces a variety of primary lesions, such as single-strand breaks (SSB), alkali-labile sites, double-strand breaks (DSB), DNA-DNA and DNA-protein crosslinks, and damage to purine and pyrimidine bases. The effects of low-level exposure to ionising radiation are of concern to large number of people, including workers receiving radiation exposure on the job. It is very important to estimate absorbed doses from individuals occupationally exposed to ionising radiation for carrying out radioprotection procedures and restrict the hazards to human health. A wide range of methods is presently used for the detection of early biological effects of DNA-damaging agents in environmental and occupational settings. Currently, unstable chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes, in particularly dicentrics, are the most fully developed biological indicators of ionizing radiation exposure. This methodology usually complements data obtained by physical dosimetry. As a routine, it is used whenever the individual dosimeter shows an exposure to penetrating radiation above its limit of detection. One of the advantages of cytogenetic dosimetry is that this biological dosimeter can be assessed at any moment whereas physical dosimeters are not always present in the subject. During the last years, the single cell gel electrophoresis (SCGE) or comet assay has gained widespread acceptance for genotoxicity testing. In molecular epidemiology studies DNA damage evaluated by the comet assay is utilized as a biomarker of exposure. The comet assay permits the detection of primary DNA damage and the study of repair kinetics at the level of single cells. The aim of the present study was to assess and quantificate the levels of DNA damage in peripheral blood leukocytes of medical workers occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation and corresponding unexposed control subjects. As a sensitive biomarker of exposure the

  16. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  17. Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

  18. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  19. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  20. 76 FR 63628 - Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-13

    ...] Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) AGENCY: Federal... Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR). DATES: Comments must be received by November 14, 2011... of the draft Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) on...

  1. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  2. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  3. Categorizing natural disaster damage assessment using satellite-based geospatial techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myint, S.W.; Yuan, M.; Cerveny, R.S.; Giri, C.

    2008-01-01

    Remote sensing of a natural disaster's damage offers an exciting backup and/or alternative to traditional means of on-site damage assessment. Although necessary for complete assessment of damage areas, ground-based damage surveys conducted in the aftermath of natural hazard passage can sometimes be potentially complicated due to on-site difficulties (e.g., interaction with various authorities and emergency services) and hazards (e.g., downed power lines, gas lines, etc.), the need for rapid mobilization (particularly for remote locations), and the increasing cost of rapid physical transportation of manpower and equipment. Satellite image analysis, because of its global ubiquity, its ability for repeated independent analysis, and, as we demonstrate here, its ability to verify on-site damage assessment provides an interesting new perspective and investigative aide to researchers. Using one of the strongest tornado events in US history, the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado, as a case example, we digitized the tornado damage path and co-registered the damage path using pre- and post-Landsat Thematic Mapper image data to perform a damage assessment. We employed several geospatial approaches, specifically the Getis index, Geary's C, and two lacunarity approaches to categorize damage characteristics according to the original Fujita tornado damage scale (F-scale). Our results indicate strong relationships between spatial indices computed within a local window and tornado F-scale damage categories identified through the ground survey. Consequently, linear regression models, even incorporating just a single band, appear effective in identifying F-scale damage categories using satellite imagery. This study demonstrates that satellite-based geospatial techniques can effectively add spatial perspectives to natural disaster damages, and in particular for this case study, tornado damages.

  4. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  5. Assessing the impacts of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimlin, Michael G.; Guo, Yuming

    2012-01-01

    Background: Ultraviolet radiation exposure during an individuals' lifetime is a known risk factor for the development of skin cancer. However, less evidence is available on assessing the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Objectives: This study aims to assess the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive measure of exposure. Methods: We recruited 180 participants (73 males, 107 females) aged 18–83 years. Digital imaging of skin hyperpigmentation (skin damage) and skin wrinkling (skin aging) on the facial region was measured. Lifetime sun exposure (presented as hours) was calculated from the participants' age multiplied by the estimated annual time outdoors for each year of life. We analyzed the effects of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging. We adjust for the influence of age, sex, occupation, history of skin cancer, eye color, hair color, and skin color. Results: There were non-linear relationships between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Younger participant's skin is much more sensitive to sun exposure than those who were over 50 years of age. As such, there were negative interactions between lifetime sun exposure and age. Age had linear effects on skin damage and skin aging. Conclusion: The data presented showed that self reported lifetime sun exposure was positively associated with skin damage and skin aging, in particular, the younger people. Future health promotion for sun exposure needs to pay attention to this group for skin cancer prevention messaging. - Highlights: ► This is the first study finding the non-linear relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. ► This study finds there is negative interaction between lifetime sun exposure and age for skin damage and aging. ► This study suggests that future health promotion for sun exposure needs to pay attention to youth group for skin cancer

  6. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  7. Engineering measures and risk assessment against fault displacement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narabayashi, Tadashi; Okamoto, Koji; Dodo, Takashi; Kamiya, Masanobu

    2017-01-01

    A special committee on 'assessment on fault activities and engineering risk' was established at the Japan Atomic Energy Society. With a participation of the Japan Society of Maintenology, a study group on nuclear safety regulations was established at the Japan Society of Maintenology, and this theme has been examined. Among the technics for evaluating the effects of fault displacement on nuclear facilities, the concept of application of the safety margin evaluation method is shown. By applying this method, it is possible to evaluate nuclear safety against fault displacement, and it is also possible to obtain risk information such as the conditions of facilities and safety functions (retention or loss) as well as the safety margin against core damage, including the event exceeding prediction. Thus, it is possible to verify the effectiveness of accident management and to make decisions for further countermeasures to reduce risk through using the obtained risk information. The countermeasures prepared for large scale damage can also be effectively utilized. It is necessary not only the fault displacement targeted in this paper, but also the results of risk assessment obtained by safety margin assessment etc. are reflected on the improvement of accident management at the site, education and training, and assumption of various events and desk training, and are linked to safety improvement. Efforts for encouraging these actions are also required. (A.O.)

  8. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  9. [A Method Research on Environmental Damage Assessment of a Truck Rollover Pollution Incident].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Feng; Zhao, Shi-ho; Chen, Gang-cai; Xian, Si-shu; Yang, Qing-ling; Zhou, Xian-jie; Yu, Hai

    2015-05-01

    With high occurrence of sudden water pollution incident, China faces an increasingly severe situation of water environment. In order to deter the acts of environmental pollution, ensure the damaged resources of environment can be restored and compensated, it is very critical to quantify the economic losses caused by the sudden water pollution incident. This paper took truck rollover pollution incidents in Chongqing for an example, established a set of evaluation method for quantifying the environmental damage, and then assessed the environmental damage by the method from four aspects, including the property damage, ecological environment and resources damages, the costs of administrative affairs in emergency disposal, and the costs of investigation and evaluation.

  10. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  11. Assessment of corrosion and fatigue damage to light water reactor metal containments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, U.P.; Shah, V.N.; Smith, S.K.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a generic procedure for estimating aging damage, evaluating structural integrity, and identifying mitigation activities for safe operation of boiling water reactor (BWR) Mark I metal containments and ice-condenser type pressurized water reactor (PWR) cylindrical metal containments. The mechanisms of concern that can cause aging damage to these two types of containments are corrosion and fatigue. Assessment of fatigue damage to bellows is also described. Assessment of corrosion and fatigue damage described in this paper include: containment design features that are relevant to aging assessment, several corrosion and fatigue mechanisms, inspection of corrosion and fatigue damage, and mitigation of damage caused by these mechanisms. In addition, synergistic interaction between corrosion and fatigue is considered. Possible actions for mitigating aging include enhanced inspection methods, maintenance activities based on operating experience, and supplementary surveillance programs. Field experience related to aging of metal containments is reviewed. Finally, conclusions and recommendations are presented

  12. Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

  13. Risks and benefits of the interventions aimed at minimizing nuclear damage in the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossiello, L.A.; Failla, L.

    1997-01-01

    The damages that the absorption of ionizing radiation (i.r.) can cause to humans may be classified as 1) nonstochastic (somatic or deterministic) or 2) stochastic (probabilistic) , which result, for example, from high doses of i.r. absorbed after a serious nuclear accident. Though the Chernobyl case involved both kinds of damage, this paper deals only with stochastic damage risk, and confine our considerations to individuals who were directly Affected and received high i.r. doses. The purpose of this paper is to provide elements on which to base future decisions on the evacuation and return of populations affected by serious nuclear accidents. Unlike the abundant literature on the subject, and as a necessary complement thereto within the bounds of a strict synthesis, to identify the most significant parameters applicable to single individuals rather than to the population at large, and referring solely to risks of stochastic damage

  14. Evaluation of DMSA scintigraphy and urography in assessing both acute and permanent renal damage in children

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stokland, E.; Jacobsson, B. [Dept. of Pediatric Radiology, Sahlgrenska Univ. Hospital, Goeteborg Univ. (Sweden).; Hellstroem, M. [Dept. of Radiology, Sahlgrenska Univ. Hospital, Goeteborg Univ. (Sweden); Jodal, U. [Dept. of Pediatrics, Sahlgrenska Univ. Hospital, Goeteborg Univ. (Sweden); Sixt, R. [Dept. of Pediatric Clinical Physiology, Sahlgrenska Univ. Hospital, Goeteborg Univ. (Sweden)

    1998-07-01

    Purpose: To evaluate dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) scintigraphy and urography in the detection of renal involvement in children with urinary tract infection (UTI) in order to identify patients with a high risk of developing renal damage. Material and Methods: A total of 157 children (median age 0.4 years, range 5 days to 5.8 years) with first-time symptomatic UTI were examined scintigraphy (with an assessment of renal area involvement) and urography at the time of UTI and 1 year later. All evaluations were made blindly. Results: Of the total 314 kidneys, 80 (25%) were abnormal at initial scintigraphy. Of these 80 kidneys, 44 (55%) had normalized at follow-up. Of the 234 initially normal kidneys, 29 (12%) were abnormal at follow-up. One year after UTI, abnormalities were seen in 59 children at scintigraphy and in 18 children at urography. Renal area involvement was larger and split function abnormalities more common in kidneys that were abnormal at both scintigraphy and urography than in kidneys with only scintigraphic abnormalities. Conclusion: Quantitation of renal area involvement and split renal function at early scintigraphy would seem to be useful in identifying patients at risk of developing renal damage. Urography at 1 year after infection identified mainly those with the most severe scintigraphic abnormalities. The clinical importance of scintigraphic abnormalities that are not confirmed by urography is not known. (orig.)

  15. Evaluation of DMSA scintigraphy and urography in assessing both acute and permanent renal damage in children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stokland, E.; Jacobsson, B.; Jodal, U.; Sixt, R.

    1998-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) scintigraphy and urography in the detection of renal involvement in children with urinary tract infection (UTI) in order to identify patients with a high risk of developing renal damage. Material and Methods: A total of 157 children (median age 0.4 years, range 5 days to 5.8 years) with first-time symptomatic UTI were examined scintigraphy (with an assessment of renal area involvement) and urography at the time of UTI and 1 year later. All evaluations were made blindly. Results: Of the total 314 kidneys, 80 (25%) were abnormal at initial scintigraphy. Of these 80 kidneys, 44 (55%) had normalized at follow-up. Of the 234 initially normal kidneys, 29 (12%) were abnormal at follow-up. One year after UTI, abnormalities were seen in 59 children at scintigraphy and in 18 children at urography. Renal area involvement was larger and split function abnormalities more common in kidneys that were abnormal at both scintigraphy and urography than in kidneys with only scintigraphic abnormalities. Conclusion: Quantitation of renal area involvement and split renal function at early scintigraphy would seem to be useful in identifying patients at risk of developing renal damage. Urography at 1 year after infection identified mainly those with the most severe scintigraphic abnormalities. The clinical importance of scintigraphic abnormalities that are not confirmed by urography is not known. (orig.)

  16. Nondestructive Damage Assessment of Composite Structures Based on Wavelet Analysis of Modal Curvatures: State-of-the-Art Review and Description of Wavelet-Based Damage Assessment Benchmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Katunin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of composite structures as elements of machines and vehicles working under various operational conditions causes degradation and occurrence of damage. Considering that composites are often used for responsible elements, for example, parts of aircrafts and other vehicles, it is extremely important to maintain them properly and detect, localize, and identify the damage occurring during their operation in possible early stage of its development. From a great variety of nondestructive testing methods developed to date, the vibration-based methods seem to be ones of the least expensive and simultaneously effective with appropriate processing of measurement data. Over the last decades a great popularity of vibration-based structural testing has been gained by wavelet analysis due to its high sensitivity to a damage. This paper presents an overview of results of numerous researchers working in the area of vibration-based damage assessment supported by the wavelet analysis and the detailed description of the Wavelet-based Structural Damage Assessment (WavStructDamAs Benchmark, which summarizes the author’s 5-year research in this area. The benchmark covers example problems of damage identification in various composite structures with various damage types using numerous wavelet transforms and supporting tools. The benchmark is openly available and allows performing the analysis on the example problems as well as on its own problems using available analysis tools.

  17. Imidacloprid enhances liver damage in Wistar rats: Biochemical, oxidative damage and histological assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sana Chakroun

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To investigate the potential adverse effects of imidacloprid on biochemical parameters, oxidative stress and liver damage induced in the rat by oral sub-chronic imidaclopride exposure. Methods: Rats received three different doses of imidacloprid (1/45, 1/22 and 1/10 of LD50 given through gavage for 60 days. Two dozen of male Wistar rats were randomly divided into four experimental groups. Liver damage was determined by measuring aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase and lactate dehydrogenase leakages. The prooxidant-antioxydant status in hepatic tissue homogenate was evaluated by measuring the degree of lipid peroxidation, the antioxidant enzymes activities such as catalase, superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase (GPx. Results: The relative liver weight was significantly higher than that of control and other treated groups at the highest dose 1/10 of LD50 of imidacloprid. Additionally, treatment of rats with imidacloprid significantly increased liver lipid peroxidation (P ≤ 0.05 or 0.01 which went together with a significant decrease in the levels of superoxide dismutase and catalase activities. Parallel to these changes, imidacloprid treatment enhanced liver damage as evidence by sharp increase in the liver enzyme activities of aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase and lactate dehydrogenase. These results were also confirmed by histopathology. Conclusions: In light of the available data, it is our thought that after imidacloprid sub-chronic exposure, depletion of antioxidant enzymes is accompanied by induction of potential oxidative stress in the hepatic tissues that might affect the function of the liver which caused biochemical and histopathological alteration.

  18. Risk assessment of natural disasters in the course of selection of nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Weicheng; Ai Guigen

    1995-01-01

    Natural disasters are calamities which bring about enormous damage to human beings and their accommodations and equipment. Based on the research of disaster risk and example study of volcanism, we tried to carry out the risk assessment of natural disasters which potentially occur in the candidate area of nuclear waste disposal by three steps of analyses, defining the most frequent occurring area of disasters, determining the parameters of risk assessment and dividing the most dangerous site and risk grades

  19. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  20. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  1. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  2. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  3. Economic estimation of risk and compensation of damage from accidents in power engineering objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesnykh, V.V.

    1996-01-01

    Place and basic peculiarities of the task relative to compensation of damage due to accidents in the problem on technical-economical studies of the power engineering objects, including NPPs, are analyzed. Certain approaches in the task of the risk economical estimates and basic provisions of the economical damage compensation system are presented. Description of imitated and analytical approach in the task of estimating financial state is given and certain study results are presented. 11 refs., 8 figs

  4. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  5. Damage Assessment of a Steel Lattice Mast under Natural Excitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Rytter, A.

    1994-01-01

    . These diagonals were cut and provided with a bolted joint implying that a damage could be simulated. Based on 20 periodical measurements during 6 months the sensitivity of the modal parameters, identified by an ARMA-model, to environmental conditions such as wind-direction, wind-speed and air-temperature have...

  6. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  7. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  8. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. DNA damage assessment by visualization and quantification of DNA damage response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, Shun; Matsuda, Tomonari; Ikura, Tsuyoshi

    2017-01-01

    DNA damage response (DDR) carries out signal transduction for DNA repair, activation of cell cycle checkpoint, and apoptosis to maintain genome integrity, in response to DNA damage. Many proteins and their post-translational modifications participate in the process. Especially, S139-phosphorylated histone H2AX (γH2AX), which is formed by DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs), is an important factor to bring and retain other DDR proteins to DSB sites, Thus, γH2AX is used as a good indicator of DSBs in clinical study and pharmacology for efficacy evaluation of chemotherapy and radiotherapy, detection of precancerous regions, and others. In regulatory science, γH2AX is also a useful biomarker of genotoxicity of chemicals, since a wide range of genotoxic chemicals induce γH2AX. However, conventional detection methods of γH2AX absolutely require anti-γH2AX antibody whose staining is burdensome and time-consuming, and some of these methods are not so superior in quantitativity. In this review, we introduce two new methods to overcome these limitations, involving an easy-to-use genotoxicity assay using DDR-visualizing cells and an absolute quantification method of γH2AX using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS). (author)

  10. Post flooding damage assessment of earth dams and historical reservoirs using non-invasive geophysical techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sentenac, Philippe; Benes, Vojtech; Budinsky, Vladimir; Keenan, Helen; Baron, Ron

    2017-11-01

    This paper describes the use of four geophysical techniques to map the structural integrity of historical earth reservoir embankments which are susceptible to natural decay with time. The four techniques that were used to assess the post flood damage were 1. A fast scanning technique using a dipole electromagnetic profile apparatus (GEM2), 2. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) in order to obtain a high resolution image of the shape of the damaged/seepage zone, 3. Self-Potential surveys were carried out to relate the detected seepage evolution and change of the water displacement inside the embankment, 4. The washed zone in the areas with piping was characterised with microgravimetry. The four geophysical techniques used were evaluated against the case studies of two reservoirs in South Bohemia, Czech Republic. A risk approach based on the Geophysical results was undertaken for the reservoir embankments. The four techniques together enabled a comprehensive non-invasive assessment whereby remedial action could be recommended where required. Conclusions were also drawn on the efficiency of the techniques to be applied for embankments with wood structures.

  11. Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

    2016-05-01

    Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

  12. New concepts in risk assessment for patients with radiological treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tautz, M.; Brandt, G.A.

    1986-01-01

    In radiation risk assessment it must be differentiated between somatic and genetic effect on the one hand as well as between stochastic and non-stochastic effect on the other. According to definitions of the ICRP report 26 the limit for the dose equivalent of all tissues prevents non-stochastic radiation effects. With stochastic radiation effects probably exist no threshold doses; therefore the ALARA principle must be applied concerning radiation protection. The individual risk by stochastic radiation effects in its linear, linear-quadratic and quadratic extrapolations, respectively, is discussed in detail. The effective stochastic dose equivalent (H/sub eff/) as well as collective dose and collective damage are outlined

  13. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-05-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM

  14. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. C. Winsemius

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population. The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE. We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from

  15. Physically-based Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Damage and Economic Losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.

    2012-12-01

    Estimating damage and economic losses caused by tropical cyclones (TC) is a topic of considerable research interest in many scientific fields, including meteorology, structural and coastal engineering, and actuarial sciences. One approach is based on the empirical relationship between TC characteristics and loss data. Another is to model the physical mechanism of TC-induced damage. In this talk we discuss about the physically-based approach to predict TC damage and losses due to extreme wind and storm surge. We first present an integrated vulnerability model, which, for the first time, explicitly models the essential mechanisms causing wind damage to residential areas during storm passage, including windborne-debris impact and the pressure-debris interaction that may lead, in a chain reaction, to structural failures (Lin and Vanmarcke 2010; Lin et al. 2010a). This model can be used to predict the economic losses in a residential neighborhood (with hundreds of buildings) during a specific TC (Yau et al. 2011) or applied jointly with a TC risk model (e.g., Emanuel et al 2008) to estimate the expected losses over long time periods. Then we present a TC storm surge risk model that has been applied to New York City (Lin et al. 2010b; Lin et al. 2012; Aerts et al. 2012), Miami-Dade County, Florida (Klima et al. 2011), Galveston, Texas (Lickley, 2012), and other coastal areas around the world (e.g., Tampa, Florida; Persian Gulf; Darwin, Australia; Shanghai, China). These physically-based models are applicable to various coastal areas and have the capability to account for the change of the climate and coastal exposure over time. We also point out that, although made computationally efficient for risk assessment, these models are not suitable for regional or global analysis, which has been a focus of the empirically-based economic analysis (e.g., Hsiang and Narita 2012). A future research direction is to simplify the physically-based models, possibly through

  16. Impact induced damage assessment by means of Lamb wave image processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudela, Pawel; Radzienski, Maciej; Ostachowicz, Wieslaw

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this research is an analysis of full wavefield Lamb wave interaction with impact-induced damage at various impact energies in order to find out the limitation of the wavenumber adaptive image filtering method. In other words, the relation between impact energy and damage detectability will be shown. A numerical model based on the time domain spectral element method is used for modeling of Lamb wave propagation and interaction with barely visible impact damage in a carbon-epoxy laminate. Numerical studies are followed by experimental research on the same material with an impact damage induced by various energy and also a Teflon insert simulating delamination. Wavenumber adaptive image filtering and signal processing are used for damage visualization and assessment for both numerical and experimental full wavefield data. It is shown that it is possible to visualize and assess the impact damage location, size and to some extent severity by using the proposed technique.

  17. Application of petrographic examination techniques to the assessment of fire-damaged concrete and masonry structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ingham, Jeremy P.

    2009-01-01

    The number of building fires has doubled over the last 50 years. There has never been a greater need for structures to be assessed for fire damage to ensure safety and enable appropriate repairs to be planned. Fortunately, even after a severe fire, concrete and masonry structures are generally capable of being repaired rather than demolished. By allowing direct examination of microcracking and mineralogical changes, petrographic examination has become widely used to determine the depth of fire damage for reinforced concrete elements. Petrographic examination can also be applied to fire-damaged masonry structures built of materials such as stone, brick and mortar. Petrography can ensure accurate detection of damaged geomaterials, which provides cost savings during building repair and increased safety reassurance. This paper comprises a review of the role of petrography in fire damage assessments, drawing on a range of actual fire damage investigations.

  18. Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-28

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO2-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

  19. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  20. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  1. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  2. Damage and Performance Assessment of Protective Coatings on Turbine Blades

    OpenAIRE

    Pokluda, Jaroslav; Kianicová, Marta

    2010-01-01

    Protective coatings on blades serve as physical barriers between the underlying substrate and the outer environment. This article presents an overview of damage mechanisms leading to failure of all basic types of coatings (diffusion, overlay and thermal barrier) on turbine blades of aircraft engines during service. Although a special emphasize is devoted to destructive effects of thermo-mechanical fatigue and overheating, the severe effects of hot corrosion, oxidation and erosion effects are ...

  3. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  4. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  5. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  6. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  7. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  8. A multisensor approach for the 2016 Amatrice earthquake damage assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vito Romaniello

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This work proposes methodologies aimed at evaluating the damage occurred in the Amatrice town by using optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR change features obtained from satellite images. The objective is to achieve a damage map employing the satellite change features in a classifier algorithm, namely the Features Stepwise Thresholding (FST method. The main novelties of the proposed analysis concern the estimation of derived features at object scale and the exploitation of the unsupervised FST algorithm. A segmentation of the study area into several buildings blocks has been done by considering a set of polygons, over the Amatrice town, extracted from the open source Open Street Map (OSM geo-database. The available satellite dataset is composed of several optical and SAR images, collected before and after the seismic event. Regarding the optical data, we selected the Normalised Difference Index (NDI, and two quantities coming from the Information Theory, namely the Kullback-Libler Divergence (KLD and the Mutual Information (MI. In addition, for the SAR data we picked out the Intensity Correlation Difference (ICD and the KLD parameter. The exploitation of these features in the FST algorithm permits to obtain a plausible damage map that is able to indicate the most affected areas.

  9. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  10. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  11. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  12. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  13. Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2001-01-01

    Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

  14. Hurricane Harvey: Infrastructure Damage Assessment of Texas' Central Gulf Coast Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, W. D.; Fovenyessy, S.; Patterson, S. F.

    2017-12-01

    We report a detailed ground-based damage survey for Hurricane Harvey, the first major hurricane to make landfall along the central Texas coast since the 1970 Category 3 Hurricane Celia. Harvey, a Category 4 storm, made landfall near Rockport, Texas on August 25th, 2017 at 10 PM local time. From September 2nd to 5th we visited Rockport and 22 nearby cities to assess the severity of the damage. Nearly all damage observed occurred as a direct result of the hurricane-force winds, rather than a storm surge. This observation is in contrast to the severe damage caused by both high winds and a significant storm surge, locally 3 to 5 m in height, in the 2013 Category 5 Hurricane Haiyan, that devastated the Philippines. We have adopted a damage scale and have given an average damage score for each of the areas investigated. Our damage contour map illustrates the areal variation in damage. The damage observed was widespread with a high degree of variability. Different types of damage included: (1) fallen fences and utility poles; (2) trees with branches broken or completely snapped in half; (3) business signs that were either partially or fully destroyed; (4) partially sunken or otherwise damaged boats; (5) and sheet metal sheds either completely or partially destroyed. There was also varying degrees of damage to both residential and commercial structures. Many homes had (6) roof damage, ranging from minor damage to complete destruction of the roof and second story, and (7) siding damage, where parts or whole sections of the homes siding had been removed. The area that had the lowest average damage score was Corpus Christi, and the areas that had the highest average damage score was both Fulton and Holiday Beach. There is no simple, uniform pattern of damage distribution. Rather, the damage was scattered, revealing hot spots of areas that received more damage than the surrounding area. However, when compared to the NOAA wind swath map, all of the damage was contained within

  15. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  16. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  17. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  18. Assessing the Economic Cost of Landslide Damage in Low-Relief Regions: Case Study Evidence from the Flemish Ardennes (Belgium)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vranken, L.; Van Turnhout, P.; Van Den Eeckhaut, M.; Vandekerckhove, L.; Vantilt, G.; Poesen, J.

    2012-04-01

    Several regions around the globe are at risk to incur damage from landslides. These landslides cause significant structural and functional damage to public and private buildings and infrastructure. Numerous studies investigated how natural factors and human activities control the (re-)activation of landslides. However, few studies have concentrated on a quantitative estimate of the overall damage caused by landslides at a regional scale. This study therefore starts with a quantitative economic assessment of the direct and indirect damage caused by landslides in the Flemish Ardennes (Belgium), a low-relief region (area=ca. 700 km2) susceptible to landslides. Based on focus interviews as well as on semi-structured interviews with homeowners, civil servants (e.g. from the technical services from the various towns), or with the owners and providers of lifelines such as electricity and sewage, we have quantitatively estimated the direct and indirect damage induced by landsliding and this for a 10 to 30 year period (depending on the type of infrastructure or buildings). Economic damage to public infrastructure and buildings was estimated for the entire region, while for private damage 10 cases with severe to small damage were quantified. For example, in the last 10 year, costs of road repair augmented to 814 560 €. Costs to repair damaged roads that have not yet been repaired, were estimated at 669 318 €. In the past 30 years, costs of measures to prevent road damage augmented to at least 14 872 380 €. More than 90% of this budget for preventive measures was spent 30 years ago, when an important freeway was damaged and had to be repaired. These preventive measures (building a grout wall and improving the drainage system) were effective as no further damage has been reported until present. To repair and prevent damage to waterworks and sewage systems, expenditures amounted to 551 044 € and this for the last 30 years. In the past 10 years, a new railway line

  19. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  20. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  2. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  3. Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titarenko, Boris

    2017-10-01

    The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

  4. The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Results and insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.

    1993-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results from the recently completed EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1. 6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The probability of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquake) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 . overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double, vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability

  5. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  6. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  7. Thermal analysis on parchments I: DSC and TGA combined approach for heat damage assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fessas, D.; Signorelli, M.; Schiraldi, A.

    2006-01-01

    Ancient, new and artificially aged parchments were investigated with both differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetry (TGA). Criteria to define a quantitative ranking of the damage experienced by the bulk collagen of historical parchments were assessed. A damage-related correlation...

  8. Status of the TMI-2 core: a review of damage assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croucher, D.W.

    1981-01-01

    Assessments of the damage within the core of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 reactor, performed by reconstructing the transient thermal-hydraulic sequence of events, estimating the amount of hydrogen generation, and evaluating the amount of fission products released, are reviewed and summarized. Minimum and maximum bounds of damage to the core are identified

  9. Nonlinear resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (NRUS) applied to damage assessment in bone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Marie; Sutin, Alexander; Guyer, Robert; Talmant, Maryline; Laugier, Pascal; Johnson, Paul A.

    2005-12-01

    Nonlinear resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (NRUS) is a resonance-based technique exploiting the significant nonlinear behavior of damaged materials. In NRUS, the resonant frequency(ies) of an object is studied as a function of the excitation level. As the excitation level increases, the elastic nonlinearity is manifest by a shift in the resonance frequency. This study shows the feasibility of this technique for application to damage assessment in bone. Two samples of bovine cortical bone were subjected to progressive damage induced by application of mechanical cycling. Before cycling commenced, and at each step in the cycling process, NRUS was applied for damage assessment. For independent assessment of damage, high-energy x-ray computed tomography imaging was performed but was only useful in identifying the prominent cracks. As the integral quantity of damage increased, NRUS revealed a corresponding increase in the nonlinear response. The measured change in nonlinear response is much more sensitive than the change in linear modulus. The results suggest that NRUS could be a potential tool for micro-damage assessment in bone. Further work must be carried out for a better understanding of the physical nature of damaged bone and for the ultimate goal of the challenging in vivo implementation of the technique.

  10. Vibration Based Damage Assessment of a Civil Engineering Structures using a Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Rytter, A.

    In this paper the possibility of using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network trained with the Backpropagation Algorith as a non-destructive damage assessment technique to locate and quantify a damage in Civil Engineering structures is investigated. Since artificial neural networks are proving...

  11. Environmental damage schedules: community judgments of importance and assessments of losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratana Chuenpagdee; Jack L. Knetsch; Thomas C. Brown

    2001-01-01

    Available methods of valuing environmental changes are often limited in their applicability to current issues such as damage assessment and implementing regulatory controls, or may otherwise not provide reliable readings of community preferences. An alternative is to base decisions on predetermined fixed schedules of sanctions, restrictions, damage awards, and other...

  12. Flood damage in Italy: towards an assessment model of reconstruction costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Genovese, Elisabetta; Modica, Marco; Zoboli, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Recent decades in Italy have seen a very rapid expansion of urbanisation in terms of physical assets, while demographics have remained stable. Both the characteristics of Italian soil and anthropic development, along with repeated global climatic stress, have made the country vulnerable to floods, the intensity of which is increasingly alarming. The combination of these trends will contribute to large financial losses due to property damage in the absence of specific mitigation strategies. The present study focuses on the province of Sondrio in Northern Italy (area of about 3,200 km²), which is home to more than 180,000 inhabitants and the population is growing slightly. It is clearly a hot spot for flood exposure, as it is primarily a mountainous area where floods and flash floods hit frequently. The model we use for assessing potential flood damage determines risk scenarios by overlaying flood hazard maps and economic asset data. In Italy, hazard maps are provided by Regional Authorities through the Hydrogeological System Management Plan (PAI) based on EU Flood Directive guidelines. The PAI in the study area includes both the large plain and the secondary river system and considers three hazard scenarios of Low, Medium and High Frequency associated with return periods of 20, 200 and 500 years and related water levels. By an overlay of PAI maps and residential areas, visualized on a GIS, we determine which existing built-up areas are at risk for flood according to each scenario. Then we investigate the value of physical assets potentially affected by floods in terms of market values, using the database of the Italian Property Market Observatory (OMI), and in terms of reconstruction costs, by considering synthetic cost indexes of predominant building types (from census information) and PAI water height. This study illustrates a methodology to assess flood damage in urban settlements and aims to determine general guidelines that can be extended throughout Italy

  13. A Support Analysis Framework for mass movement damage assessment: applications to case studies in Calabria (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Petrucci

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of data describing damage caused by mass movements in Calabria (Italy allowed the organisation of the Support Analysis Framework (SAF, a spreadsheet that converts damage descriptions into numerical indices expressing direct, indirect, and intangible damage.

    The SAF assesses damage indices of past mass movements and the potential outcomes of dormant phenomena re-activations. It is based on the effects on damaged elements and is independent of both physical and geometric phenomenon characteristics.

    SAF sections that assess direct damage encompass several lines, each describing an element characterised by a value fixed on a relative arbitrary scale. The levels of loss are classified as: L4: complete; L3: high; L2: medium; or L1: low. For a generic line l, the SAF multiplies the value of a damaged element by its level of loss, obtaining dl, the contribution of the line to the damage.

    Indirect damage is appraised by two sections accounting for: (a actions aiming to overcome emergency situations and (b actions aiming to restore pre-movement conditions. The level of loss depends on the number of people involved (a or the cost of actions (b.

    For intangible damage, the level of loss depends on the number of people involved.

    We examined three phenomena, assessing damage using the SAF and SAFL, customised versions of SAF based on the elements actually present in the analysed municipalities that consider the values of elements in the community framework. We show that in less populated, inland, and affluent municipalities, the impact of mass movements is greater than in coastal areas.

    The SAF can be useful to sort groups of phenomena according to their probable future damage, supplying results significant either for insurance companies or for local authorities involved in both disaster management and planning of defensive measures.

  14. Radiation damage assessment by digital correlation of images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, J.; Salih, S.M.; Cosslett, V.E.

    1974-01-01

    Structural changes in the electron microscopic specimen due to radiation damage are conveniently studied by electron diffraction. However, two disadvantages of this method are that it does not work for amorphous specimens and that it is not sensitive to structural changes that affect only the phase of the structure factor. It has been proposed that a series of successive images taken under minimum exposure conditions could provide additional information in those cases where the relationship between object function and image intensity can be established. In order to test the proposed method, both lattice images and diffraction patterns of coronene crystals were recorded in separate experiments at controlled levels of exposure. (author)

  15. Intersystem LOCA risk assessment: methodology and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Kelly, D.L.; Schroeder, J.A.; Auflick, L.J.; Blackman, H.S.; Gertman, D.I.; Hanley, L.N.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors, hardware and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an intersystem loss-of-coolant accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish the goals of this program, a mehtodology has been developed for estimating ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. The steps in this methodology are briefly described, along with the results obtained from an application of the methodology at three pressurized water reactors. Also included are the results of a screening study of boiling water reactors. ((orig.))

  16. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  17. Assessment of brain damage in a geriatric population through use of a visual-searching task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turbiner, M; Derman, R M

    1980-04-01

    This study was designed to assess the discriminative capacity of a visual-searching task for brain damage, as described by Goldstein and Kyc (1978), for 10 hospitalized male, brain-damaged patients, 10 hospitalized male schizophrenic patients, and 10 normal subjects in a control group, all of whom were approximately 65 yr. old. The derived data indicated, at a statistically significant level, that the visual-searching task was effective in successfully classifying 80% of the brain-damaged sample when compared to the schizophrenic patients and discriminating 90% of the brain-damaged patients from normal subjects.

  18. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  19. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  20. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  1. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  2. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  3. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  4. Age and metabolic risk factors associated with oxidatively damaged DNA in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løhr, Mille; Jensen, Annie; Eriksen, Louise

    2015-01-01

    Aging is associated with oxidative stress-generated damage to DNA and this could be related to metabolic disturbances. This study investigated the association between levels of oxidatively damaged DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and metabolic risk factors in 1,019 subjects, aged...... 18-93 years. DNA damage was analyzed as strand breaks by the comet assay and levels of formamidopyrimidine (FPG-) and human 8-oxoguanine DNA glycosylase 1 (hOGG1)-sensitive sites There was an association between age and levels of FPG-sensitive sites for women, but not for men. The same tendency......, cholesterol and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c). In the group of men, there were significant positive associations between alcohol intake, HbA1c and FPG-sensitive sites in multivariate analysis. The levels of metabolic risk factors were positively associated with age, yet only few subjects fulfilled all...

  5. Pornography actresses: an assessment of the damaged goods hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, James D; Mitchell, Sharon; Hart, Christian L; Adams, Lea T; Gu, Lucy L

    2013-01-01

    The damaged goods hypothesis posits that female performers in the adult entertainment industry have higher rates of childhood sexual abuse (CSA), psychological problems, and drug use compared to the typical woman. The present study compared the self-reports of 177 porn actresses to a sample of women matched on age, ethnicity, and marital status. Comparisons were conducted on sexual behaviors and attitudes, self-esteem, quality of life, and drug use. Porn actresses were more likely to identify as bisexual, first had sex at an earlier age, had more sexual partners, were more concerned about contracting a sexually transmitted disease (STD), and enjoyed sex more than the matched sample, although there were no differences in incidence of CSA. In terms of psychological characteristics, porn actresses had higher levels of self-esteem, positive feelings, social support, sexual satisfaction, and spirituality compared to the matched group. Last, female performers were more likely to have ever used 10 different types of drugs compared to the comparison group. A discriminant function analysis was able to correctly classify 83% of the participants concerning whether they were a porn actress or member of the matched sample. These findings did not provide support for the damaged goods hypothesis.

  6. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  7. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  8. Coupling mode-destination accessibility with seismic risk assessment to identify at-risk communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Mahalia; Baker, Jack W.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a framework for coupling mode-destination accessibility with quantitative seismic risk assessment to identify communities at high risk for travel disruptions after an earthquake. Mode-destination accessibility measures the ability of people to reach destinations they desire. We use a probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure, including a stochastic set of earthquake events, ground-motion intensity maps, damage maps, and realizations of traffic and accessibility impacts. For a case study of the San Francisco Bay Area, we couple our seismic risk framework with a practical activity-based traffic model. As a result, we quantify accessibility risk probabilistically by community and household type. We find that accessibility varies more strongly as a function of travelers' geographic location than as a function of their income class, and we identify particularly at-risk communities. We also observe that communities more conducive to local trips by foot or bike are predicted to be less impacted by losses in accessibility. This work shows the potential to link quantitative risk assessment methodologies with high-resolution travel models used by transportation planners. Quantitative risk metrics of this type should have great utility for planners working to reduce risk to a region's infrastructure systems. - Highlights: • We couple mode-destination accessibility with probabilistic seismic risk assessment. • Results identify communities at high risk for post-earthquake travel disruptions. • Accessibility varies more as a function of home location than by income. • Our model predicts reduced accessibility risk for more walking-friendly communities.

  9. INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF STATIN-ASSOCIATED MUSCLE DAMAGE PREDICTORS IN PATIENTS WITH ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Petrov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To assess the risk factors of statin-associated muscle damage in patient with ischemic heart disease.Material and methods. 258 patients with ischemic heart disease treated with statin were included into the study. Total plasma creatine kinase levels were measured and SLCO1B1*5 genotyping was performed. Relationship between statin therapy and adverse events was evaluated by Naranjo algorithm.Results. Patients with muscle symptoms received statins significantly longer (48.8 vs 11.9 months, р<0.0001 and in higher doses, than patients without muscle pain/weakness. There were not significant differences in creatine kinase levels between patients with and without muscle symptoms. Patients with SLCO1B1*5 genotype were revealed in both groups, but more often (58% among patients with muscle symptoms. Patients with abnormal C allele having muscle symptoms received statins significantly longer, than these without muscle signs (54.7 vs 13.9 months, р=0.0028.Conclusion. Association between occurrence of muscle symptoms and SLCO1B1*5 allele carriership, statin dose and therapy duration was revealed. Creatine kinase examination was not valuable for finding of statin-induced muscle damage.

  10. INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF STATIN-ASSOCIATED MUSCLE DAMAGE PREDICTORS IN PATIENTS WITH ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Petrov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To assess the risk factors of statin-associated muscle damage in patient with ischemic heart disease.Material and methods. 258 patients with ischemic heart disease treated with statin were included into the study. Total plasma creatine kinase levels were measured and SLCO1B1*5 genotyping was performed. Relationship between statin therapy and adverse events was evaluated by Naranjo algorithm.Results. Patients with muscle symptoms received statins significantly longer (48.8 vs 11.9 months, р<0.0001 and in higher doses, than patients without muscle pain/weakness. There were not significant differences in creatine kinase levels between patients with and without muscle symptoms. Patients with SLCO1B1*5 genotype were revealed in both groups, but more often (58% among patients with muscle symptoms. Patients with abnormal C allele having muscle symptoms received statins significantly longer, than these without muscle signs (54.7 vs 13.9 months, р=0.0028.Conclusion. Association between occurrence of muscle symptoms and SLCO1B1*5 allele carriership, statin dose and therapy duration was revealed. Creatine kinase examination was not valuable for finding of statin-induced muscle damage.

  11. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  12. Ecological catastrophe and economical damages. The problems of assessment from Amoco-Cadiz

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnieux, F.; Rainelli, P.

    1991-01-01

    This book strikes the balance of the accident of the tanker ship Amoco-Cadiz (environmental effects and economic impact) and sets the problem of damages assessment, liabilities, victims compensation. 99 refs., 41 figs., 43 tabs

  13. Sensing technology for damage assessment of sign supports and cantilever poles : final report, August 31, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-31

    This report presents the results of research activities conducted under Contract No. 519691-PIT 008 on Sensing Technology for : Damage Assessment of Sign Supports and Cantilever Poles between the University of Pittsburgh and the Pennsylvania De...

  14. An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

    2017-07-01

    The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

  15. Results of the AP600 advanced plant probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bueter, T.; Sancaktar, S.; Freeland, J.

    1997-01-01

    The AP600 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) includes detailed models of the plant systems, including the containment and containment systems that would be used to mitigate the consequences of a severe accident. The AP600 PRA includes a level 1 analysis (core damage frequency), and a level 2 analysis (environmental consequences), an assessment of the plant vulnerability to accidents caused by fire or floods, and a seismic margins analysis. Numerous sensitivities are included in the AP600 PRA including one that assumes no credit for non-safety plant systems. The core damage frequency for the AP600 of 1.7E-07/year is small compared with other PRAs performed in the nuclear industry. The AP600 large release frequency of 1.8E-08/year is also small and shows the ability of the containment systems to prevent a large release should a severe accident occur. Analyses of potential consequences to the environment from a severe accident show that a release would be small, and that containment still provides significant protection 24 hours after an assumed accident. Sensitivity analyses show that plant risk (as measured by core damage frequency and large release frequency) is not sensitive to the reliability of operator actions. 6 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  16. Development of seismic damage assessment system for nuclear power plant structures in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyun, Chang-Hun; Lee, Sung-Kyu; Choi, Kang-Ryoung; Koh, Hyun-Moo; Cho, HoHyun

    2003-01-01

    A seismic damage assessment system that analyses in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and the damage level of power plant structures has been developed. The system consists of three parts: a 3-D inelastic seismic analysis, a damage assessment using a damage index based on the previous 3-D analysis, and a 3-D graphic representation. PSC containment structures are modelled by finite shell elements using layered method and analysis is performed by means of time history inelastic seismic analysis method, which takes into account material nonlinearities. HHT-α, one kind of direct integration method, is adopted for the seismic analysis. Two damage indices at finite element and structural levels are applied for the seismic damage assessment. 3-D graphical representation of dynamic responses and damage index expedites procedure for evaluating the damage level. The developed system is now being installed at the Earthquake Monitoring Center of KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) to support site inspections after an earthquake occurrence, and decisions about effective emergency measures, repair and operations of the plant. (author)

  17. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  18. 78 FR 16655 - Draft Damage Assessment, Restoration Plan and Environmental Assessment for the T/B DBL 152 Oil...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-18

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Draft Damage Assessment...: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice of Availability of a Draft... natural resources. Under the federal Oil Pollution Act (OPA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric...

  19. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  20. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  1. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  2. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  3. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment methodology and results summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1992-01-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Level 1 report documents a comprehensive and state-of-the-art study to establish and reduce the risk associated with operation of the ATR, expressed as a mean frequency of fuel damage. The ATR Level 1 PRA effort is unique and outstanding because of its consistent and state-of-the-art treatment of all facets of the risk study, its comprehensive and cost-effective risk reduction effort while the risk baseline was being established, and its thorough and comprehensive documentation. The PRA includes many improvements to the state-of-the-art, including the following: establishment of a comprehensive generic data base for component failures, treatment of initiating event frequencies given significant plant improvements in recent years, performance of efficient identification and screening of fire and flood events using code-assisted vital area analysis, identification and treatment of significant seismic-fire-flood-wind interactions, and modeling of large loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) and experiment loop ruptures leading to direct damage of the ATR core. 18 refs

  4. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  5. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  6. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  7. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  8. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  9. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  10. Patellofemoral Instability in Children: Correlation Between Risk Factors, Injury Patterns, and Severity of Cartilage Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hee Kyung; Shiraj, Sahar; Kang, Chang Ho; Anton, Christopher; Kim, Dong Hoon; Horn, Paul S

    2016-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare MRI findings between groups with and without patellofemoral instability and to correlate the MRI findings with the severity of patellar cartilage damage. Fifty-three children with patellofemoral instability and 53 age- and sex-matched children without patellofemoral instability (15.9 ± 2.4 years) were included. Knee MRI with T2-weighted mapping was performed. On MR images, femoral trochlear dysplasia, patellofemoral malalignment, medial retinaculum injury, and bone marrow edema were documented. The degree of patellar cartilage damage was evaluated on MR images by use of a morphologic grading scale (0-4) and on T2 maps with mean T2 values at the medial, central, and lateral facets. MRI findings were compared between the two groups. In cases of patellofemoral instability, MRI findings were correlated with the severity of cartilage damage at each region. Trochlear structure and alignment were significantly different between the two groups (Wilcoxon p patellofemoral instability, a high-riding patella was associated with central patellar cartilage damage with a higher morphologic grade and T2 value (Spearman p patellofemoral instability have significantly different trochlear structure and alignment than those who do not, and these differences are known risk factors for patellofemoral instability. However, the only risk factors or injury patterns that directly correlated with the severity of patellar cartilage damage were patella alta, medial stabilizer injury, and bone marrow edema.

  11. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  12. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  13. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  14. The Persian Gulf: pollution, damage assessment, damage evaluation. Detection of environmental changes after oil spill. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graf, G.

    1993-01-01

    During a cruise in december 1991 postwar environmental damage was assessed in the nothern Persian Gulf. The sediments contained apparent traces of oil residues. Extremely high sediment oxygen demand cannot be explained by oil pollution. Sufficient aeriation of the water column is ensured by the hydrographical setting in the area. Since large macrofauna species are very little abundant, the benthic biomass dominated by bacteria. Due to this shift in the size distribution of the benthic community, changes of the whole ecosystem are most likely. (orig.) [de

  15. Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

    OpenAIRE

    Howcroft, Jennifer; Kofman, Jonathan; Lemaire, Edward D

    2013-01-01

    Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological f...

  16. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  17. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  18. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  19. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  20. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  1. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  2. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  3. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  4. Science and judgment in risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants

    .... This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments...

  5. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  6. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  7. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  8. Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Büchele

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.

  9. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  10. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  11. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvin, B.N.

    1996-01-01

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  12. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  13. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  14. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  15. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  16. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  17. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  18. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  19. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  20. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary