Estimating International Poverty Lines from Comparable National Thresholds

OpenAIRE

Jolliffe, Dean; Prydz, Espen Beer

2016-01-01

World Bank's international poverty line of $1.90/day, at 2011 purchasing power parity, is based on a collection of national poverty lines, which were originally used to set the international poverty line of $1.25/day at 2005 purchasing power parity. This paper proposes an approach for estimating a more recent, complete, and comparable collection of national poverty thresholds from reported...

The financial burden of emergency general surgery: National estimates 2010 to 2060.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogola, Gerald O; Gale, Stephen C; Haider, Adil; Shafi, Shahid

2015-09-01

Adoption of the acute care surgery model has led to increasing volumes of emergency general surgery (EGS) patients at trauma centers. However, the financial burden of EGS services on trauma centers is unknown. This study estimates the current and future costs associated with EGS hospitalization nationwide. We applied the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma's DRG International Classification of Diseases-9th Rev. criteria for defining EGS to the 2010 National Inpatient Sample (NIS) data and identified adult EGS patients. Cost of hospitalization was obtained by converting reported charges to cost using the 2010 all-payer inpatient cost-to-charge ratio for all hospitals in the NIS database. Cost was modeled via a log-gamma model in a generalized linear mixed model to account for potential correlation in cost within states and hospitals in the NIS database. Patients' characteristics and hospital factors were included in the model as fixed effects, while state and hospital were included as random effects. The national incidence of EGS was calculated from NIS data, and the US Census Bureau population projections were used to estimate incidence for 2010 to 2060. Nationwide costs were obtained by multiplying projected incidences by estimated costs and reported in year 2010 US dollar value. Nationwide, there were 2,640,725 adult EGS hospitalizations in 2010. The national average adjusted cost per EGS hospitalization was $10,744 (95% confidence interval [CI], $10,615-$10,874); applying these cost data to the national EGS hospitalizations gave a total estimated cost of $28.37 billion (95% CI, $28.03-$28.72 billion). Older age groups accounted for greater proportions of the cost ($8.03 billion for age ≥ 75 years, compared with $1.08 billion for age 18-24 years). As the US population continues to both grow and age, EGS costs are projected to increase by 45% to $41.20 billion (95% CI, $40.70-$41.7 billion) by 2060. EGS constitutes a significant portion of US health

Buried transuranic wastes at ORNL: Review of past estimates and reconciliation with current data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trabalka, J.R.

1997-09-01

Inventories of buried (generally meaning disposed of) transuranic (TRU) wastes at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) have been estimated for site remediation and waste management planning over a period of about two decades. Estimates were required because of inadequate waste characterization and incomplete disposal records. For a variety of reasons, including changing definitions of TRU wastes, differing objectives for the estimates, and poor historical data, the published results have sometimes been in conflict. The purpose of this review was (1) to attempt to explain both the rationale for and differences among the various estimates, and (2) to update the estimates based on more recent information obtained from waste characterization and from evaluations of ORNL waste data bases and historical records. The latter included information obtained from an expert panel's review and reconciliation of inconsistencies in data identified during preparation of the ORNL input for the third revision of the Baseline Inventory Report for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. The results summarize current understanding of the relationship between past estimates of buried TRU wastes and provide the most up-to-date information on recorded burials thereafter. The limitations of available information on the latter and thus the need for improved waste characterization are highlighted

Current Source Density Estimation for Single Neurons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorottya Cserpán

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Recent developments of multielectrode technology made it possible to measure the extracellular potential generated in the neural tissue with spatial precision on the order of tens of micrometers and on submillisecond time scale. Combining such measurements with imaging of single neurons within the studied tissue opens up new experimental possibilities for estimating distribution of current sources along a dendritic tree. In this work we show that if we are able to relate part of the recording of extracellular potential to a specific cell of known morphology we can estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of transmembrane currents along it. We present here an extension of the kernel CSD method (Potworowski et al., 2012 applicable in such case. We test it on several model neurons of progressively complicated morphologies from ball-and-stick to realistic, up to analysis of simulated neuron activity embedded in a substantial working network (Traub et al, 2005. We discuss the caveats and possibilities of this new approach.

Long-Term Geomagnetically Induced Current Observations From New Zealand: Peak Current Estimates for Extreme Geomagnetic Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Rodger, Craig J.; Mac Manus, Daniel H.; Dalzell, Michael; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Clarke, Ellen; Petersen, Tanja; Clilverd, Mark A.; Divett, Tim

2017-11-01

Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) observations made in New Zealand over 14 years show induction effects associated with a rapidly varying horizontal magnetic field (dBH/dt) during geomagnetic storms. This study analyzes the GIC observations in order to estimate the impact of extreme storms as a hazard to the power system in New Zealand. Analysis is undertaken of GIC in transformer number six in Islington, Christchurch (ISL M6), which had the highest observed currents during the 6 November 2001 storm. Using previously published values of 3,000 nT/min as a representation of an extreme storm with 100 year return period, induced currents of 455 A were estimated for Islington (with the 95% confidence interval range being 155-605 A). For 200 year return periods using 5,000 nT/min, current estimates reach 755 A (confidence interval range 155-910 A). GIC measurements from the much shorter data set collected at transformer number 4 in Halfway Bush, Dunedin, (HWB T4), found induced currents to be consistently a factor of 3 higher than at Islington, suggesting equivalent extreme storm effects of 460-1,815 A (100 year return) and 460-2,720 A (200 year return). An estimate was undertaken of likely failure levels for single-phase transformers, such as HWB T4 when it failed during the 6 November 2001 geomagnetic storm, identifying that induced currents of 100 A can put such transformer types at risk of damage. Detailed modeling of the New Zealand power system is therefore required to put this regional analysis into a global context.

Progress toward national estimates of police use of force

Science.gov (United States)

Garner, Joel H.; Malega, Ronald W.; Maxwell, Christopher D.

2018-01-01

This research builds on three decades of effort to produce national estimates of the amount and rate of force used by law enforcement officers in the United States. Prior efforts to produce national estimates have suffered from poor and inconsistent measurements of force, small and unrepresentative samples, low survey and/or item response rates, and disparate reporting of rates of force. The present study employs data from a nationally representative survey of state and local law enforcement agencies that has a high survey response rate as well as a relatively high rate of reporting uses of force. Using data on arrests for violent offenses and the number of sworn officers to impute missing data on uses of force, we estimate a total of 337,590 use of physical force incidents among State and local law enforcement agencies during 2012 with a 95 percent confidence interval of +/- 10,470 incidents or +/- 3.1 percent. This article reports the extent to which the number and rate of force incidents vary by the type and size of law enforcement agencies. Our findings demonstrate the willingness of a large proportion of law enforcement agencies to voluntarily report the amount of force used by their officers and the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics (LEMAS) program to produce nationally representative information about police behavior. PMID:29447295

Estimating the National Carbon Abatement Potential of City Policies: A Data-Driven Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Shaughnessy, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heeter, Jenny [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gagnon, Pieter [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Aznar, Alexandra [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-10-01

Cities are increasingly taking actions such as building code enforcement, urban planning, and public transit expansion to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide in their communities and municipal operations. However, many cities lack the quantitative information needed to estimate policy impacts and prioritize city actions in terms of carbon abatement potential and cost effectiveness. This report fills this research gap by providing methodologies to assess the carbon abatement potential of a variety of city actions. The methodologies are applied to an energy use data set of 23,458 cities compiled for the U.S. Department of Energy City Energy Profile tool. The analysis develops a national estimate of the carbon abatement potential of realizable city actions in six specific policy areas encompassing the most commonly implemented city actions. The results of this analysis suggest that, in aggregate, cities could reduce nationwide carbon emissions by about 210 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MMT CO2) per year in a 'moderate abatement scenario' by 2035 and 480 MMT CO2/year in a 'high abatement scenario' by 2035 through these common actions typically within a city's control in the six policy areas. The aggregate carbon abatement potential of these specific areas equates to a reduction of 3%-7% relative to 2013 U.S. emissions. At the city level, the results suggest the average city could reduce carbon emissions by 7% (moderate) to 19% (high) relative to current city-level emissions. In the context of U.S. climate commitments under the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21), the estimated national abatement potential of the city actions analyzed in this report equates to about 15%-35% of the remaining carbon abatement necessary to achieve the U.S. COP21 target. Additional city actions outside the scope of this report, such as community choice aggregation (city-level purchasing of renewable energy), zero energy districts, and multi

Cost estimation for decommissioning: a review of current practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Sullivan, P.; Pescatore, C.

2009-01-01

It is now common practice for decommissioning plans and associated cost estimates to be prepared for all nuclear installations. Specific requirements are generally set out in regulations that have their basis in national legislation. These estimates are important for ensuring that the necessary funds are being collected to cover the actual costs of decommissioning the facility. The long time horizon for both amassing and disbursing these funds is a particular concern for national authorities. It is thus important to maintain a realistic estimate of the liabilities involved and to confirm the adequacy of the provisions to discharge them over time. Estimates of decommissioning costs have been performed and published by many organisations for many different purposes and applications. The results often vary because of differences in basic assumptions such as the choice of the decommissioning strategy (immediate vs. deferred), the availability of waste management pathways, the assumed end states of installations, the detailed definition of cost items, technical uncertainties, unforeseen events, the evolution of regulation and requirements. Many of these differences may be unavoidable since a reasonable degree of reliability and accuracy can only be achieved by developing decommissioning cost estimates on a case-by-case, site-specific basis. Moreover, even if considerable efforts are made to obtain reliable estimates, unforeseen events may cause estimates to go wrong. The issue of how to deal with uncertainties is therefore an important one, leading in turn to the need for risk management in terms of making adequate funding provisions. In March 2008, a questionnaire was circulated among the organisations participating in the NEA Decommissioning and Cost Estimation Group (DCEG). Information was collected on legal requirements and the responsibilities of the main parties concerned with the preparation and oversight of cost estimates, the main cost elements and associated

Maximum likelihood estimation of biophysical parameters of synaptic receptors from macroscopic currents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrey eStepanyuk

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Dendritic integration and neuronal firing patterns strongly depend on biophysical properties of synaptic ligand-gated channels. However, precise estimation of biophysical parameters of these channels in their intrinsic environment is complicated and still unresolved problem. Here we describe a novel method based on a maximum likelihood approach that allows to estimate not only the unitary current of synaptic receptor channels but also their multiple conductance levels, kinetic constants, the number of receptors bound with a neurotransmitter and the peak open probability from experimentally feasible number of postsynaptic currents. The new method also improves the accuracy of evaluation of unitary current as compared to the peak-scaled non-stationary fluctuation analysis, leading to a possibility to precisely estimate this important parameter from a few postsynaptic currents recorded in steady-state conditions. Estimation of unitary current with this method is robust even if postsynaptic currents are generated by receptors having different kinetic parameters, the case when peak-scaled non-stationary fluctuation analysis is not applicable. Thus, with the new method, routinely recorded postsynaptic currents could be used to study the properties of synaptic receptors in their native biochemical environment.

Estimating infertility prevalence in low-to-middle-income countries: an application of a current duration approach to Demographic and Health Survey data

OpenAIRE

Polis, Chelsea B.; Cox, Carie M.; Tun?alp, ?zge; McLain, Alexander C.; Thoma, Marie E.

2017-01-01

Abstract STUDY QUESTION Can infertility prevalence be estimated using a current duration (CD) approach when applied to nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected routinely in low- or middle-income countries? SUMMARY ANSWER Our analysis suggests that a CD approach applied to DHS data from Nigeria provides infertility prevalence estimates comparable to other smaller studies in the same region. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Despite associations with serious negative hea...

Racial disparities in smoking knowledge among current smokers: data from the health information national trends surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Reimer, Rachel Ann; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X

2010-10-01

Although African-Americans (Blacks) smoke fewer cigarettes per day than European-Americans (Whites), there is ample evidence that Blacks are more susceptible to smoking-related health consequences. A variety of behavioural, social and biological factors have been linked to this increased risk. There has been little research, however, on racial differences in smoking-related knowledge and perceived risk of lung cancer. The primary goal of the current study was to evaluate beliefs and knowledge that contribute to race disparities in lung cancer risk among current smokers. Data from two separate nationally representative surveys (the Health Information National Trends surveys 2003 and 2005) were analysed. Logistic and hierarchical regressions were conducted; gender, age, education level, annual household income and amount of smoking were included as covariates. In both studies, Black smokers were significantly more likely to endorse inaccurate statements than were White smokers, and did not estimate their lung cancer risk to be significantly higher than Whites. Results highlight an important racial disparity in public health knowledge among current smokers.

National intelligence estimates and the Failed State Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Voracek, Martin

2013-10-01

Across 177 countries around the world, the Failed State Index, a measure of state vulnerability, was reliably negatively associated with the estimates of national intelligence. Psychometric analysis of the Failed State Index, compounded of 12 social, economic, and political indicators, suggested factorial unidimensionality of this index. The observed correspondence of higher national intelligence figures to lower state vulnerability might arise through these two macro-level variables possibly being proxies of even more pervasive historical and societal background variables that affect both.

Cost Estimating in DoD: Current Status, Trends, and What the Future Holds

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Nussbaum, Daniel A

2005-01-01

(1) Current Status: Baseline analysis of current cost estimating community, including which organizations are responsible for developing and reviewing cost estimates, how many personnel there are, what...

Estimating patient dose from CT exams that use automatic exposure control: Development and validation of methods to accurately estimate tube current values.

Science.gov (United States)

McMillan, Kyle; Bostani, Maryam; Cagnon, Christopher H; Yu, Lifeng; Leng, Shuai; McCollough, Cynthia H; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

2017-08-01

The vast majority of body CT exams are performed with automatic exposure control (AEC), which adapts the mean tube current to the patient size and modulates the tube current either angularly, longitudinally or both. However, most radiation dose estimation tools are based on fixed tube current scans. Accurate estimates of patient dose from AEC scans require knowledge of the tube current values, which is usually unavailable. The purpose of this work was to develop and validate methods to accurately estimate the tube current values prescribed by one manufacturer's AEC system to enable accurate estimates of patient dose. Methods were developed that took into account available patient attenuation information, user selected image quality reference parameters and x-ray system limits to estimate tube current values for patient scans. Methods consistent with AAPM Report 220 were developed that used patient attenuation data that were: (a) supplied by the manufacturer in the CT localizer radiograph and (b) based on a simulated CT localizer radiograph derived from image data. For comparison, actual tube current values were extracted from the projection data of each patient. Validation of each approach was based on data collected from 40 pediatric and adult patients who received clinically indicated chest (n = 20) and abdomen/pelvis (n = 20) scans on a 64 slice multidetector row CT (Sensation 64, Siemens Healthcare, Forchheim, Germany). For each patient dataset, the following were collected with Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval: (a) projection data containing actual tube current values at each projection view, (b) CT localizer radiograph (topogram) and (c) reconstructed image data. Tube current values were estimated based on the actual topogram (actual-topo) as well as the simulated topogram based on image data (sim-topo). Each of these was compared to the actual tube current values from the patient scan. In addition, to assess the accuracy of each method in estimating

Inconsistencies Exist in National Estimates of Eye Care Services Utilization in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando A. Wilson

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background. There are limited research and substantial uncertainty about the level of eye care utilization in the United States. Objectives. Our study estimated eye care utilization using, to our knowledge, every known nationally representative, publicly available database with information on office-based optometry or ophthalmology services. Research Design. We analyzed the following national databases to estimate eye care utilization: the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS, Joint Canada/US Survey of Health (JCUSH, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, and the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS. Subjects. US adults aged 18 and older. Measures. Self-reported utilization of eye care services. Results. The weighted number of adults seeing or talking with any eye doctor ranges from 87.9 million to 99.5 million, and the number of visits annually ranges from 72.9 million to 142.6 million. There were an estimated 17.2 million optometry visits and 55.8 million ophthalmology visits. Conclusions. The definitions and estimates of eye care services vary widely across national databases, leading to substantial differences in national estimates of eye care utilization.

Research on State-of-Charge (SOC) estimation using current integration based on temperature compensation

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, J.; Shen, Y.; Liu, X. T.; Zeng, G. J.; Liu, D. C.

2017-11-01

The traditional current integral method for the state-of-charge (SOC) estimation has an unusable estimation accuracy because of the current measuring error. This paper proposed a closed-loop temperature compensation method to improve the SOC estimation accuracy of current integral method by eliminating temperature drift. Through circuit simulation result in Multisim, the stability of current measuring accuracy is improved by more than 10 times. In a designed 70 charge-discharge experimental circle, the SOC estimation error with temperature compensation had 30 times less than error in normal situation without compensation.

Current schemes for National Synchrotron Light Source UV beamlines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, G.P.; Howells, M.R.; McKinney, W.R.

1979-01-01

We describe in some detail four beamlines proposed for the National Synchrotron Light Source uv ring at Brookhaven National Laboratory. Three grazing-incidence instruments, one of the plane grating Mijake type and two with toroidal gratings at grazing angles of 2-1/2 0 and 15 0 are described. Two normal incidence instruments, one using the source as entrance slit and accepting 75 milliradians horizontally are also discussed. In each case we have estimated the output fluxes expected from such beamlines

Current waste-management practices and operations at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1982

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eisenhower, B.M.; Oakes, T.W.; Coobs, J.H.; Weeter, D.W.

1982-09-01

The need for efficient management of industrial chemical wastes, especially those considered hazardous or radioactive, is receiving increased attention in the United States. During the past five years, several federal laws have addressed the establishment of stronger programs for the control of hazardous and residual wastes. At a facility such as Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), an efficient waste management program is an absolute necessity to ensure protection of human health and compliance with regulatory requirements addressing the treatment and disposal of hazardous, nonhazardous, and radioactive wastes. This report highlights the major regulatory requirements under which the Laboratory must operate and their impact on ORNL facilities. Individual waste streams, estimates of quantities of waste, and current waste management operations are discussed.

Current waste-management practices and operations at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1982

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eisenhower, B.M.; Oakes, T.W.; Coobs, J.H.; Weeter, D.W.

1982-09-01

The need for efficient management of industrial chemical wastes, especially those considered hazardous or radioactive, is receiving increased attention in the United States. During the past five years, several federal laws have addressed the establishment of stronger programs for the control of hazardous and residual wastes. At a facility such as Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), an efficient waste management program is an absolute necessity to ensure protection of human health and compliance with regulatory requirements addressing the treatment and disposal of hazardous, nonhazardous, and radioactive wastes. This report highlights the major regulatory requirements under which the Laboratory must operate and their impact on ORNL facilities. Individual waste streams, estimates of quantities of waste, and current waste management operations are discussed

DC Link Current Estimation in Wind-Double Feed Induction Generator Power Conditioning System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MARIAN GAICEANU

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper the implementation of the DC link current estimator in power conditioning system of the variable speed wind turbine is shown. The wind turbine is connected to double feed induction generator (DFIG. The variable electrical energy parameters delivered by DFIG are fitted with the electrical grid parameters through back-to-back power converter. The bidirectional AC-AC power converter covers a wide speed range from subsynchronous to supersynchronous speeds. The modern control of back-to-back power converter involves power balance concept, therefore its load power should be known in any instant. By using the power balance control, the DC link voltage variation at the load changes can be reduced. In this paper the load power is estimated from the dc link, indirectly, through a second order DC link current estimator. The load current estimator is based on the DC link voltage and on the dc link input current of the rotor side converter. This method presents certain advantages instead of using measured method, which requires a low pass filter: no time delay, the feedforward current component has no ripple, no additional hardware, and more fast control response. Through the numerical simulation the performances of the proposed DC link output current estimator scheme are demonstrated.

New Methods for Estimating Water Current Velocity Fields from Autonomous Underwater Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Kinsey, J. C.; Medagoda, L.

2016-02-01

Water current velocities are a crucial component of understanding oceanographic processes and underwater robots, such as autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), provide a mobile platform for obtaining these observations. Estimating water current velocities requires both measurements of the water velocity, often obtained with an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP), as well as estimates of the vehicle velocity. Presently, vehicle velocities are supplied on the sea surface with velocity from GPS, or near the seafloor where Doppler Velocity Log (DVL) in bottom-lock is available; however, this capability is unavailable in the mid-water column where DVL bottom-lock and GPS are unavailable. Here we present a method which calculates vehicle velocities using consecutive ADCP measurements in the mid-water using an extended Kalman filter (EKF). The correlation of the spatially changing water current states, along with mass transport and shear constraints on the water current field, is formulated using least square constraints. Results from the Sentry AUV from a mid-water surveying mission at Deepwater Horizon and a small-scale hydrothermal vent flux estimation mission suggest the method is suitable for real-time use. DVL data is denied to simulate mid-water missions and the results compared to ground truth water velocity measurements estimated using DVL velocities. Results show quantifiable uncertainties in the water current velocities, along with similar performance, for the DVL and no-DVL case in the mid-water. This method has the potential to provide geo-referenced water velocity measurements from mobile ocean robots in the absence of GPS and DVL as well as estimate the uncertainty associated with the measurements.

Self-reported physical activity among blacks: estimates from national surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitt-Glover, Melicia C; Taylor, Wendell C; Heath, Gregory W; Macera, Caroline A

2007-11-01

National surveillance data provide population-level estimates of physical activity participation, but generally do not include detailed subgroup analyses, which could provide a better understanding of physical activity among subgroups. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of self-reported regular physical activity among black adults using data from the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (n=19,189), the 2004 National Health Interview Survey (n=4263), and the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n=3407). Analyses were conducted between January and March 2006. Datasets were analyzed separately to estimate the proportion of black adults meeting national physical activity recommendations overall and stratified by gender and other demographic subgroups. The proportion of black adults reporting regular PA ranged from 24% to 36%. Regular physical activity was highest among men; younger age groups; highest education and income groups; those who were employed and married; overweight, but not obese, men; and normal-weight women. This pattern was consistent across surveys. The observed physical activity patterns were consistent with national trends. The data suggest that older black adults and those with low education and income levels are at greatest risk for inactive lifestyles and may require additional attention in efforts to increase physical activity in black adults. The variability across datasets reinforces the need for objective measures in national surveys.

76 FR 52548 - National Veterinary Accreditation Program; Currently Accredited Veterinarians Performing...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-23

.... APHIS-2006-0093] RIN 0579-AC04 National Veterinary Accreditation Program; Currently Accredited... accredited in the National Veterinary Accreditation Program (NVAP) may continue to perform accredited duties..., 2011. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. Todd Behre, National Veterinary Accreditation Program, VS...

Possibilities for Estimating Horizontal Electrical Currents in Active Regions on the Sun

Science.gov (United States)

Fursyak, Yu. A.; Abramenko, V. I.

2017-12-01

Part of the "free" magnetic energy associated with electrical current systems in the active region (AR) is released during solar flares. This proposition is widely accepted and it has stimulated interest in detecting electrical currents in active regions. The vertical component of an electric current in the photosphere can be found by observing the transverse magnetic field. At present, however, there are no direct methods for calculating transverse electric currents based on these observations. These calculations require information on the field vector measured simultaneously at several levels in the photosphere, which has not yet been done with solar instrumentation. In this paper we examine an approach to calculating the structure of the square of the density of a transverse electrical current based on a magnetogram of the vertical component of the magnetic field in the AR. Data obtained with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) for the AR of NOAA AR 11283 are used. It is shown that (1) the observed variations in the magnetic field of a sunspot and the proposed estimate of the density of an annular horizontal current around the spot are consistent with Faraday's law and (2) the resulting estimates of the magnitude of the square of the density of the horizontal current {j}_{\\perp}^2 = (0.002- 0.004) A2/m4 are consistent with previously obtained values of the density of a vertical current in the photosphere. Thus, the proposed estimate is physically significant and this method can be used to estimate the density and structure of transverse electrical currents in the photosphere.

Estimating global, regional and national rotavirus deaths in children aged <5 years: Current approaches, new analyses and proposed improvements.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Clark

Full Text Available Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality in children but there is considerable disagreement about how many deaths occur each year.We compared CHERG, GBD and WHO/CDC estimates of age under 5 years (U5 rotavirus deaths at the global, regional and national level using a standard year (2013 and standard list of 186 countries. The global estimates were 157,398 (CHERG, 122,322 (GBD and 215,757 (WHO/CDC. The three groups used different methods: (i to select data points for rotavirus-positive proportions; (ii to extrapolate data points to individual countries; (iii to account for rotavirus vaccine coverage; (iv to convert rotavirus-positive proportions to rotavirus attributable fractions; and (v to calculate uncertainty ranges. We conducted new analyses to inform future estimates. We found that acute watery diarrhoea was associated with 87% (95% CI 83-90% of U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations based on data from 84 hospital sites in 9 countries, and 65% (95% CI 57-74% of U5 diarrhoea deaths based on verbal autopsy reports from 9 country sites. We reanalysed data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS and found 44% (55% in Asia, and 32% in Africa rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea hospitalisations, and 28% rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea deaths. 97% (95% CI 95-98% of the U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations that tested positive for rotavirus were entirely attributable to rotavirus. For all clinical syndromes combined the rotavirus attributable fraction was 34% (95% CI 31-36%. This increased by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI 1.02-1.14 when the GEMS results were reanalysed using a more sensitive molecular test.We developed consensus on seven proposals for improving the quality and transparency of future rotavirus mortality estimates.

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

Science.gov (United States)

Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2018-06-01

Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons

Estimating national forest carbon stocks and dynamics: combining models and remotely sensed information

Science.gov (United States)

Smallman, Thomas Luke; Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, Anthony; Williams, Mathew

2017-04-01

Forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle, storing significant amounts of carbon, split between living biomass and dead organic matter. The carbon budget of forests is the most uncertain component of the global carbon cycle - it is currently impossible to quantify accurately the carbon source/sink strength of forest biomes due to their heterogeneity and complex dynamics. It has been a major challenge to generate robust carbon budgets across landscapes due to data scarcity. Models have been used for estimating carbon budgets, but outputs have lacked an assessment of uncertainty, making a robust assessment of their reliability and accuracy challenging. Here a Metropolis Hastings - Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MH-MCMC) data assimilation framework has been used to combine remotely sensed leaf area index (MODIS), biomass (where available) and deforestation estimates, in addition to forest planting information from the UK's national forest inventory, an estimate of soil carbon from the Harmonized World Database (HWSD) and plant trait information with a process model (DALEC) to produce a constrained analysis with a robust estimate of uncertainty of the UK forestry carbon budget between 2000 and 2010. Our analysis estimates the mean annual UK forest carbon sink at -3.9 MgC ha-1 yr-1 with a 95 % confidence interval between -4.0 and -3.1 MgC ha-1yr-1. The UK national forest inventory (NFI) estimates the mean UK forest carbon sink to be between -1.4 and -5.5 MgC ha-1 yr-1. The analysis estimate for total forest biomass stock in 2010 is estimated at 229 (177/232) TgC, while the NFI an estimated total forest biomass carbon stock of 216 TgC. Leaf carbon area (LCA) is a key plant trait which we are able to estimate using our analysis. Comparison of median estimates for (LCA) retrieved from the analysis and a UK land cover map show higher and lower values for LCA are estimated areas dominated by needle leaf and broad leaf forests forest respectively, consistent with

A comparison of prevalence estimates for selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the National Health Interview Survey, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chaoyang; Balluz, Lina S; Ford, Earl S; Okoro, Catherine A; Zhao, Guixiang; Pierannunzi, Carol

2012-06-01

To compare the prevalence estimates of selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions among three national health surveys in the United States. Data from adults aged 18 years or older who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=807,524), the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=44,262), and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) during 2007 and 2008 (n=5871) were analyzed. The prevalence estimates of current smoking, obesity, hypertension, and no health insurance were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.7% to 3.9% (relative differences: 2.3% to 20.2%). The prevalence estimate of poor or fair health from BRFSS was similar to that from NHANES, but higher than that from NHIS. The prevalence estimates of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.0% to 0.8% (relative differences: 0.2% to 17.1%). While the BRFSS continues to provide invaluable health information at state and local level, it is reassuring to observe consistency in the prevalence estimates of key health indicators of similar caliber between BRFSS and other national surveys. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Comparing cancer screening estimates: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, Ann Goding; Liu, Benmei; Siegel, Rebecca L; Jemal, Ahmedin; Fedewa, Stacey A

2018-01-01

Cancer screening prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), designed to provide state-level estimates, and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), designed to provide national estimates, are used to measure progress in cancer control. A detailed description of the extent to which recent cancer screening estimates vary by key demographic characteristics has not been previously described. We examined national prevalence estimates for recommended breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening using data from the 2012 and 2014 BRFSS and the 2010 and 2013 NHIS. Treating the NHIS estimates as the reference, direct differences (DD) were calculated by subtracting NHIS estimates from BRFSS estimates. Relative differences were computed by dividing the DD by the NHIS estimates. Two-sample t-tests (2-tails), were performed to test for statistically significant differences. BRFSS screening estimates were higher than those from NHIS for breast (78.4% versus 72.5%; DD=5.9%, pNHIS, each survey has a unique and important role in providing information to track cancer screening utilization among various populations. Awareness of these differences and their potential causes is important when comparing the surveys and determining the best application for each data source. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors Associated With Current Smoking Among Off-Reserve First Nations and Métis Youth: Results From the 2012 Aboriginal Peoples Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Christopher; Leatherdale, Scott; Cooke, Martin

2017-04-01

First Nations and Métis, two of Canada's constitutionally recognized Indigenous groups, suffer from poorer overall health than non-Indigenous Canadians. Current smoking, a known predictor of chronic health conditions, is close to twice as prevalent among Indigenous youth as it is among non-Indigenous Canadian youth. However, little population-level research has examined the correlates of current smoking among this population. Guided by a health framework centered on Indigenous-specific determinants, we used data from the 2012 Aboriginal Peoples Survey to examine the correlates of current smoking among First Nations and Métis youth aged 15-17 years living outside of First Nations reserves. Using binary logistic regression, we investigated how culturally specific factors, namely knowledge of an Indigenous language, participation in traditional activities, and family members' attendance at residential schools, were correlated with current smoking. We also considered demographic, geographic, socioeconomic and health-related correlates. Overall, an estimated 20.6% of First Nations and Métis youth reported current smoking. We found no significant associations between culturally specific activities and current smoking in the multivariate analyses, although those who spoke an Indigenous language were more likely to smoke. Those who participated in sports more often were less likely to smoke, and respondents who reported heavy drinking and who were from families with lower income were more likely to smoke. Gender, body mass index, urban/rural geography and regional geography, and mother's highest level of education were not significantly correlated with smoking. The results of our study support prior research that has found a disturbingly high prevalence of current smoking among Indigenous youth, compared to their non-Indigenous counterparts. Our results highlight the importance of considering sports participation, co-occurring health-risk behaviours and socioeconomic

National, regional, and worldwide estimates of stillbirth rates in 2015, with trends from 2000

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blencowe, Hannah; Cousens, Simon; Jassir, Fiorella Bianchi

2016-01-01

) met the inclusion criteria, a 90% increase from 2009 estimates. The estimated average global SBR in 2015 was 18·4 per 1000 births, down from 24·7 in 2000 (25·5% reduction). In 2015, an estimated 2·6 million (uncertainty range 2·4-3·0 million) babies were stillborn, giving a 19% decline in numbers...... estimate SBRs and numbers for 195 countries, including trends from 2000 to 2015. METHODS: We collated SBR data meeting prespecified inclusion criteria from national routine or registration systems, nationally representative surveys, and other data sources identified through a systematic review, web...

National fossil fuels consumption: Estimates of CO2 emissions and thermic pollution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mariani, Mario; Casale, Francesco

1997-01-01

The study on the basis of the national energy consumption from 1988 to 1994, estimates CO 2 emission rates produced by the most relevant hydrocarbons involved in the technological combustion processes and assess the potential thermic impact on the environment. Two calculation procedures have been developed taking into account once emission factors and other emission indexes in order to verify the two estimates. Besides, the work determines the national trend of CO 2 emission with regard to the aim for the stabilization of carbon dioxide emissions at 1990 levels by 2000

Current smoking and secondhand smoke exposure and depression among Korean adolescents: analysis of a national cross-sectional survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kyung-Jae

2014-02-06

To examine the association between cigarette smoke exposure and depression among Korean adolescents using the seventh Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBWS). Cross-sectional study. A nationally representative sample of middle and high school students across South Korea. 75 643 eligible participants across the country. Current smoking, secondhand smoke exposure and depression. Data were analysed from a nationally representative survey of 75 643 participants (37 873 men and 37 770 women). Data were gathered on extensive information including current smoking, secondhand smoke exposure and depression in adolescence. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the association between current smoking, secondhand smoke exposure and depression in Korean adolescents. Among those who had never smoked, secondhand smoke exposure was positively associated with depression in male and female adolescents in a dose-response relation (OR 1.27, OR 1.52 in males; OR 1.25, OR 1.72 in females). Similar associations were observed among currently smoking men and women in a dose-response manner (OR 1.29, OR 1.55 in males; OR 1.22, OR 1.41 in females). These significant trends were consistently observed even after adjustments. We suggested that current smoking and secondhand smoke exposure were positively associated with depression in male and female adolescents. Efforts to encourage no smoking and no secondhand smoke exposure will be established for adolescents.

Estimating the cost of delivering direct nutrition interventions at scale: national and subnational level insights from India.

Science.gov (United States)

Menon, Purnima; McDonald, Christine M; Chakrabarti, Suman

2016-05-01

India's national nutrition and health programmes are largely designed to provide evidence-based nutrition-specific interventions, but intervention coverage is low due to a combination of implementation challenges, capacity and financing gaps. Global cost estimates for nutrition are available but national and subnational costs are not. We estimated national and subnational costs of delivering recommended nutrition-specific interventions using the Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) costing approach. We compared costs of delivering the SUN interventions at 100% scale with those of nationally recommended interventions. Target populations (TP) for interventions were estimated using national population and nutrition data. Unit costs (UC) were derived from programmatic data. The cost of delivering an intervention at 100% coverage was calculated as (UC*projected TP). Cost estimates varied; estimates for SUN interventions were lower than estimates for nationally recommended interventions because of differences in choice of intervention, target group or unit cost. US$5.9bn/year are required to deliver a set of nationally recommended nutrition interventions at scale in India, while US$4.2bn are required for the SUN interventions. Cash transfers (49%) and food supplements (40%) contribute most to costs of nationally recommended interventions, while food supplements to prevent and treat malnutrition contribute most to the SUN costs. We conclude that although such costing is useful to generate broad estimates, there is an urgent need for further costing studies on the true unit costs of the delivery of nutrition-specific interventions in different local contexts to be able to project accurate national and subnational budgets for nutrition in India. © 2016 The Authors. Maternal & Child Nutrition published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

75 FR 59605 - National Veterinary Accreditation Program; Currently Accredited Veterinarians Performing...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-28

.... APHIS-2006-0093] RIN 0579-AC04 National Veterinary Accreditation Program; Currently Accredited... Veterinary Accreditation Program (NVAP) may continue to perform accredited duties and to elect to continue to..., National Veterinary Accreditation Program, VS, APHIS, 4700 River Road Unit 200, Riverdale, MD 20737; (301...

Current use of equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate in Spanish laboratories.

Science.gov (United States)

Gràcia-Garcia, Sílvia; Montañés-Bermúdez, Rosario; Morales-García, Luis J; Díez-de Los Ríos, M José; Jiménez-García, Juan Á; Macías-Blanco, Carlos; Martínez-López, Rosalina; Ruiz-Altarejos, Joaquín; Ruiz-Martín, Guadalupe; Sanz-Hernández, Sonia; Ventura-Pedret, Salvador

2012-07-17

In 2006 the Spanish Society of Clinical Biochemistry and Molecular Pathology (SEQC) and the Spanish Society of Nephrology (S.E.N.) developed a consensus document in order to facilitate the diagnosis and monitoring of chronic kidney disease with the incorporation of equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) into laboratory reports. The current national prevalence of eGFR reporting and the degree of adherence to these recommendations among clinical laboratories is unknown. We administered a national survey in 2010-11 to Spanish clinical laboratories. The survey was through e-mail or telephone to laboratories that participated in the SEQC’s Programme for External Quality Assurance, included in the National Hospitals Catalogue 2010, including both primary care and private laboratories. A total of 281 laboratories answered to the survey. Of these, 88.2% reported on the eGFR, with 61.9% reporting on the MDRD equation and 31.6% using the MDRD-IDMS equation. A total of 42.5% of laboratories always reported serum creatinine values, and other variables only when specifically requested. Regarding the way results were presented, 46.2% of laboratories reported the exact numerical value only when the filtration rate was below 60mL/min/1.73m2, while 50.6% reported all values regardless. In 56.3% of the cases reporting eGFR, an interpretive commentary of it was enclosed. Although a high percentage of Spanish laboratories have added eGFR in their reports, this metric is not universally used. Moreover, some aspects, such as the equation used and the correct expression of eGFR results, should be improved.

Estimates of the field-aligned current density in current-carrying filaments using auroral zone ground-based observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. A. Danielides

Full Text Available We described the ground signatures of dynamic substorm features as observed by the imaging riometer, magnetometers and all-sky camera (ASC at Kilpisjärvi, Finland on 5 and 25 October 1999 during the late evening hours. The magnetometer data was consistent with the motion of up-ward field-aligned currents (FACs associated with absorption patches moving within the field of view of the riometer. We used riometer data in order to estimate the intensity of FACs associated with these local current-carrying filaments. It is shown that during these events, the estimated FAC intensity exceeds a threshold value that corresponds to the excitation of the low-frequency turbulence in the upper ionosphere. As a result, a quasi-oscillating regime of anomalous resistivity on the auroral field lines can give rise to the burst-like electron acceleration responsible for simultaneously observed auroral forms and bursts of Pi1B pulsations.

Key words. Ionosphere (active experiments; auroral ionosphere; electric fields and currents

National and subnational hypertension prevalence estimates for the Republic of Ireland: better outcome and risk factor data are needed to produce better prevalence estimates.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Barron, Steve

2014-01-10

Hypertension is a global public health challenge. National prevalence estimates can conceal important differences in prevalence in subnational areas. This paper aims to develop a consistent set of national and subnational estimates of the prevalence of hypertension in a country with limited data for subnational areas.

Multi-population Genomic Relationships for Estimating Current Genetic Variances Within and Genetic Correlations Between Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Wientjes, Yvonne C J; Bijma, Piter; Vandenplas, Jérémie; Calus, Mario P L

2017-10-01

Different methods are available to calculate multi-population genomic relationship matrices. Since those matrices differ in base population, it is anticipated that the method used to calculate genomic relationships affects the estimate of genetic variances, covariances, and correlations. The aim of this article is to define the multi-population genomic relationship matrix to estimate current genetic variances within and genetic correlations between populations. The genomic relationship matrix containing two populations consists of four blocks, one block for population 1, one block for population 2, and two blocks for relationships between the populations. It is known, based on literature, that by using current allele frequencies to calculate genomic relationships within a population, current genetic variances are estimated. In this article, we theoretically derived the properties of the genomic relationship matrix to estimate genetic correlations between populations and validated it using simulations. When the scaling factor of across-population genomic relationships is equal to the product of the square roots of the scaling factors for within-population genomic relationships, the genetic correlation is estimated unbiasedly even though estimated genetic variances do not necessarily refer to the current population. When this property is not met, the correlation based on estimated variances should be multiplied by a correction factor based on the scaling factors. In this study, we present a genomic relationship matrix which directly estimates current genetic variances as well as genetic correlations between populations. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Disturbance estimator based predictive current control of grid-connected inverters

OpenAIRE

Al-Khafaji, Ahmed Samawi Ghthwan

2013-01-01

ABSTRACT: The work presented in my thesis considers one of the modern discrete-time control approaches based on digital signal processing methods, that have been developed to improve the performance control of grid-connected three-phase inverters. Disturbance estimator based predictive current control of grid-connected inverters is proposed. For inverter modeling with respect to the design of current controllers, we choose the d-q synchronous reference frame to make it easier to understand an...

Estimating time to pregnancy from current durations in a cross-sectional sample

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keiding, Niels; Kvist, Kajsa; Hartvig, Helle

2002-01-01

A new design for estimating the distribution of time to pregnancy is proposed and investigated. The design is based on recording current durations in a cross-sectional sample of women, leading to statistical problems similar to estimating renewal time distributions from backward recurrence times....

Hepatitis C prevalence in Denmark -an estimate based on multiple national registers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Peer Brehm; Hay, Gordon; Jepsen, Peter

2012-01-01

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: A national survey for chronic hepatitis C has not been performed in Denmark and the prevalence is unknown. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C from public registers and the proportion of these patients who received specialized healthcare. METHODS...... by capture-recapture analysis. The population with undiagnosed hepatitis C was derived from the national register of drug users by comparing diagnosed and tested persons. RESULTS: A total of 6,935 patients diagnosed with chronic hepatitis C were identified in the four registers and the estimated population.......37-0.42) of the population over 15 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in Denmark was 0.38%. Less than half of the patients with chronic hepatitis C in Denmark have been identified and among these patients, one in three has attended specialised care....

U.S. National Certification in Literary Braille: History and Current Administration

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Edward

2010-01-01

This article reports on a certification examination for teachers of students with visual impairments--the National Literary Braille Competency Test (NLBCT). It discusses the history, development, pilot testing, and validation of NLBCT and the creation of the National Certification in Literary Braille. Data on the current administration of the test…

SHYREG, a national database of flood frequency estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arnaud Patrick

2016-01-01

Full Text Available SHYREG method is a regionalized method for rainfall and flood frequency analysis (FFA. It is based on processes simulation. It couples an hourly rainfall generator with a rainfall-runoff model, simplified enough to be regionalized. The method has been calibrated using all hydro meteorological data available at the national level. In France, that represents about 2800 raingauges of the French Weather Service network and about 1800 stations of the hydrometric National Bank network. Then, the method has been regionalized to provide a rainfall and flow quantiles database. An evaluation of the method was carried out during different thesis works and more recently during the ANR project Extraflo, with the aim of comparing different FFA approaches. The accuracy of the method in estimating rainfall and flow quantiles has been proved, as well as its stability due to a parameterization based on average values. The link with rainfall seems preferable to extrapolation based solely on the flow. Thus, another interest of the method is to take into account extreme flood behaviour with help of rainfall frequency estimation. In addition, the approach is implicitly multi-durational, and only one regionalization meets all the needs in terms hydrological hazards characterisation. For engineering needs and to avoid repeating the method implementation, this method has been applied throughout a 50 meters resolution mesh to provide a complete flood quantiles database over the French territory providing regional information on hydrological hazards. However, it is subject to restrictions related to the nature of the method: the SHYREG flows are “natural”, and do not take into account specific cases like the basins highly influenced by presence of hydraulic works, flood expansion areas, high snowmelt or karsts. Information about these restrictions and uncertainty estimation is provided with this database, which can be consulted via web access.

Estimating infertility prevalence in low-to-middle-income countries: an application of a current duration approach to Demographic and Health Survey data.

Science.gov (United States)

Polis, Chelsea B; Cox, Carie M; Tunçalp, Özge; McLain, Alexander C; Thoma, Marie E

2017-05-01

Can infertility prevalence be estimated using a current duration (CD) approach when applied to nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected routinely in low- or middle-income countries? Our analysis suggests that a CD approach applied to DHS data from Nigeria provides infertility prevalence estimates comparable to other smaller studies in the same region. Despite associations with serious negative health, social and economic outcomes, infertility in developing countries is a marginalized issue in sexual and reproductive health. Obtaining reliable, nationally representative prevalence estimates is critical to address the issue, but methodological and resource challenges have impeded this goal. This cross-sectional study was based on standard information available in the DHS core questionnaire and data sets, which are collected routinely among participating low-to-middle-income countries. Our research question was examined among women participating in the 2013 Nigeria DHS (n = 38 948). Among women eligible for the study, 98% were interviewed. We applied a CD approach (i.e. current length of time-at-risk of pregnancy) to estimate time-to-pregnancy (TTP) and 12-month infertility prevalence among women 'at risk' of pregnancy at the time of interview (n = 7063). Women who were 18-44 years old, married or cohabitating, sexually active within the past 4 weeks and not currently using contraception (and had not been sterilized) were included in the analysis. Estimates were based on parametric survival methods using bootstrap methods (500 bootstrap replicates) to obtain 95% CIs. The estimated median TTP among couples at risk of pregnancy was 5.1 months (95% CI: 4.2-6.3). The estimated percentage of infertile couples was 31.1% (95% CI: 27.9-34.7%)-consistent with other smaller studies from Nigeria. Primary infertility (17.4%, 95% CI: 12.9-23.8%) was substantially lower than secondary infertility (34.1%, 95% CI: 30.3-39.3%) in this population

Estimation and reduction of harmonic currents from power converters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asiminoaei, Lucian

-based method depends very much on the amount and accuracy of collected data in the development stage. The outcome of this investigation is a Harmonic Calculation Software compiled into a Graphical User Interface PC-software application, which can be applied for fast estimations of the harmonic currents...... control of the proposed topologies are given together with laboratory tests. One harmonic current mitigation solution found is to connect (two) smaller power APF's in parallel, sharing the same ac- and dc-bus. It is proven that parallel APF's may have lower passive components although other issues arises......, like circulation currents, which is removed here by common mode coils. Another harmonic solution is to use cascade connection of (two) independent APF's that cooperatively share the task of the harmonic mitigation. Two cooperative control methods are proposed called load-sharing and harmonic-sharing...

Effect of tube current modulation for dose estimation using a simulation tool on body CT examination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawaguchi, Ai; Matsunaga, Yuta; Kobayashi, Masanao; Suzuki, Shoichi; Matsubara, Kosuke; Chida, Koichi

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of tube current modulation for dose estimation of a body computed tomography (CT) examination using a simulation tool. The authors also compared longitudinal variations in tube current values between iterative reconstruction (IR) and filtered back-projection (FBP) reconstruction algorithms. One hundred patients underwent body CT examinations. The tube current values around 10 organ regions were recorded longitudinally from tube current information. The organ and effective doses were simulated by average tube current values and longitudinal modulated tube current values. The organ doses for the bladder and breast estimated by longitudinal modulated tube current values were 20 % higher and 25 % lower than those estimated using the average tube current values, respectively. The differences in effective doses were small (mean, 0.7 mSv). The longitudinal variations in tube current values were almost the same for the IR and FBP algorithms. (authors)

General guidance and procedures for estimating and reporting national GHG emissions for agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rypdal, K.

2002-01-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture account for a large share of total GHG emissions in most countries. Methane from ruminants, animal manure and rice fields, and nitrous oxide from agricultural soils are among the most important sources. In general, these emission estimates also are more uncertain than most other parts of the GHG emission inventory. IPCC has developed guidelines for estimating and reporting emissions of GHG. These guidelines shall be followed to secure complete, consistent, accurate and transparent reporting of emissions. However, the recommended methodologies are tiered, and choice of methods shall preferably reflect national circumstances, the national importance of a source, and different resources to prepare inventories. A country may also apply a national methodology given that it is well documented and not in conflict with good practice. Emission data reported under the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change are subject to external control, and the methodologies are reviewed by experts on agricultural inventories. (au)

A Method to Simultaneously Detect the Current Sensor Fault and Estimate the State of Energy for Batteries in Electric Vehicles.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jun; Wang, Jing; Li, Shiying; Cao, Binggang

2016-08-19

Recently, State of energy (SOE) has become one of the most fundamental parameters for battery management systems in electric vehicles. However, current information is critical in SOE estimation and current sensor is usually utilized to obtain the latest current information. However, if the current sensor fails, the SOE estimation may be confronted with large error. Therefore, this paper attempts to make the following contributions: Current sensor fault detection and SOE estimation method is realized simultaneously. Through using the proportional integral observer (PIO) based method, the current sensor fault could be accurately estimated. By taking advantage of the accurate estimated current sensor fault, the influence caused by the current sensor fault can be eliminated and compensated. As a result, the results of the SOE estimation will be influenced little by the fault. In addition, the simulation and experimental workbench is established to verify the proposed method. The results indicate that the current sensor fault can be estimated accurately. Simultaneously, the SOE can also be estimated accurately and the estimation error is influenced little by the fault. The maximum SOE estimation error is less than 2%, even though the large current error caused by the current sensor fault still exists.

Estimation of post disruption plasma temperature for fast current quench Aditya plasma shots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purohit, S.; Chowdhuri, M.B.; Joisa, Y.S.; Raval, J.V.; Ghosh, J.; Jha, R.

2013-01-01

Characteristics of tokamak current quenches are an important issue for the determination of electromagnetic forces that act on the in-vessel components and vacuum vessel during major disruptions. It is observed that thermal quench is followed by a sharp current decay. Fast current quench disruptive plasma shots were investigated for ADITYA tokamak. The current decay time was determined for the selected shots, which were in the range of 0.8 msec to 2.5 msec. This current decay information was then applied to L/R model, frequently employed for the estimation of the current decay time in tokamak plasmas, considering plasma inductance and plasma resistivity. This methodology was adopted for the estimation of the post disruption plasma temperature using the experimentally observed current decay time for the fast current quench disruptive ADITYA plasma shots. The study reveals that for the identified shots there is a constant increase in the current decay time with the post disruption plasma temperature. The investigations also explore the behavior post disruption plasma temperature and the current decay time as a function of the edge safety factor, Q. Post disruption plasma temperature and the current decay time exhibits a decrease with the increase in the value Q. (author)

National HIV prevalence estimates for sub-Saharan Africa: controlling selection bias with Heckman-type selection models

Science.gov (United States)

Hogan, Daniel R; Salomon, Joshua A; Canning, David; Hammitt, James K; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Bärnighausen, Till

2012-01-01

Objectives Population-based HIV testing surveys have become central to deriving estimates of national HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. However, limited participation in these surveys can lead to selection bias. We control for selection bias in national HIV prevalence estimates using a novel approach, which unlike conventional imputation can account for selection on unobserved factors. Methods For 12 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted from 2001 to 2009 (N=138 300), we predict HIV status among those missing a valid HIV test with Heckman-type selection models, which allow for correlation between infection status and participation in survey HIV testing. We compare these estimates with conventional ones and introduce a simulation procedure that incorporates regression model parameter uncertainty into confidence intervals. Results Selection model point estimates of national HIV prevalence were greater than unadjusted estimates for 10 of 12 surveys for men and 11 of 12 surveys for women, and were also greater than the majority of estimates obtained from conventional imputation, with significantly higher HIV prevalence estimates for men in Cote d'Ivoire 2005, Mali 2006 and Zambia 2007. Accounting for selective non-participation yielded 95% confidence intervals around HIV prevalence estimates that are wider than those obtained with conventional imputation by an average factor of 4.5. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that national HIV prevalence estimates for many countries in sub-Saharan African are more uncertain than previously thought, and may be underestimated in several cases, underscoring the need for increasing participation in HIV surveys. Heckman-type selection models should be included in the set of tools used for routine estimation of HIV prevalence. PMID:23172342

Current cigarette smoking among in-school American youth: results from the 2004 National Youth Tobacco Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudatsikira, Emmanuel; Muula, Adamson S; Siziya, Seter

2009-04-03

Tobacco use is a leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality. In the developed nations where the burden from infectious diseases is lower, the burden of disease from tobacco use is especially magnified. Understanding the factors that may be associated with adolescent cigarette smoking may aid in the design of prevention programs. A secondary analysis of the 2004 United States National Youth Tobacco Survey was carried out to estimate the association between current cigarette smoking and selected smoking-related variables. Study participants were recruited from middle and high schools in the United States. Logistic regression analysis using SUDAAN software was conducted to estimate the association between smoking and the following explanatory variables: age, sex, race-ethnicity, peer smoking, living in the same household as a smoker, amount of pocket money at the disposal of the adolescents, and perception that smoking is not harmful to health. Of the 27727 respondents whose data were analysed, 15.9% males and 15.3% females reported being current cigarette smokers. In multivariate analysis, compared to Whites, respondents from almost all ethnic groups were less likely to report current cigarette smoking: Blacks (OR = 0.52; 95% CI [0.44, 0.60]), Asians (OR = 0.45; 95% CI [0.35, 0.58]), Hispanic (OR = 0.81; 95% CI [0.71, 0.92]), and Hawaii/Pacific Islanders (OR = 0.69; 95% CI [0.52, 0.93]). American Indians were equally likely to be current smokers as whites, OR = 0.98 [95% CI; 0.79, 1.22]. Participants who reported living with a smoker were more than twice as likely to smoke as those who did not live with a cigarette smoker (OR = 2.73; 95% CI [2.21, 3.04]). Having friends who smoked was positively associated with smoking (OR = 2.27; 95% CI [1.91, 2.71] for one friend who smoked, and OR = 2.71; 95% CI [2.21, 3.33] for two or more friends who smoked). Subjects who perceived that it was safe to smoke for one or two years were more likely to smoke than those who

Estimated Historical and Current Nitrogen Balances for Illinois

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark B. David

2001-01-01

Full Text Available The Midwest has large riverine exports of nitrogen (N, with the largest flux per unit area to the Mississippi River system coming from Iowa and Illinois. We used historic and current data to estimate N inputs, outputs, and transformations for Illinois where human activity (principally agriculture and associated landscape drainage have had a dominant impact. Presently, ~800,000 Mg of N is added each year as fertilizer and another 420,000 Mg is biologically fixed, primarily by soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.. These annual inputs are greater than exports in grain, which results in surplus N throughout the landscape. Rivers within the state export approximately 50% of this surplus N, mostly as nitrate, and the remainder appears to be denitrified or temporarily incorporated into the soil organic matter pool. The magnitude of N losses for 1880, 1910, 1950, and 1990 are compared. Initial cultivation of the prairies released large quantities of N (~500,000 Mg N year�1, and resulted in riverine N transport during the late 19th century that appears to have been on the same order of magnitude as contemporary N losses. Riverine flux was estimated to have been at a minimum in about 1950, due to diminished net mineralization and low fertilizer inputs. Residual fertilizer N from corn (Zea mays L., biological N fixed by soybean, short-circuiting of soil water through artificial drainage, and decreased cropping-system diversity appear to be the primary sources for current N export.

The association of estimated salt intake with blood pressure in a Viet Nam national survey.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul N Jensen

Full Text Available To evaluate the association of salt consumption with blood pressure in Viet Nam, a developing country with a high level of salt consumption.Analysis of a nationally representative sample of Vietnamese adults 25-65 years of age who were surveyed using the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to Surveillance protocol. Participants who reported acute illness, pregnancy, or current use of antihypertensive medications were excluded. Daily salt consumption was estimated from fasting mid-morning spot urine samples. Associations of salt consumption with systolic blood pressure and prevalent hypertension were assessed using adjusted linear and generalized linear models. Interaction terms were tested to assess differences by age, smoking, alcohol consumption, and rural/urban status.The analysis included 2,333 participants (mean age: 37 years, 46% male, 33% urban. The average estimated salt consumption was 10g/day. No associations of salt consumption with blood pressure or prevalent hypertension were observed at a national scale in men or women. The associations did not differ in subgroups defined by age, smoking, or alcohol consumption; however, associations differed between urban and rural participants (p-value for interaction of urban/rural status with salt consumption, p = 0.02, suggesting that higher salt consumption may be associated with higher systolic blood pressure in urban residents but lower systolic blood pressure in rural residents.Although there was no evidence of an association at a national level, associations of salt consumption with blood pressure differed between urban and rural residents in Viet Nam. The reasons for this differential association are not clear, and given the large rate of rural to urban migration experienced in Viet Nam, this topic warrants further investigation.

The association of estimated salt intake with blood pressure in a Viet Nam national survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Paul N; Bao, Tran Quoc; Huong, Tran Thi Thanh; Heckbert, Susan R; Fitzpatrick, Annette L; LoGerfo, James P; Ngoc, Truong Le Van; Mokdad, Ali H

2018-01-01

To evaluate the association of salt consumption with blood pressure in Viet Nam, a developing country with a high level of salt consumption. Analysis of a nationally representative sample of Vietnamese adults 25-65 years of age who were surveyed using the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to Surveillance protocol. Participants who reported acute illness, pregnancy, or current use of antihypertensive medications were excluded. Daily salt consumption was estimated from fasting mid-morning spot urine samples. Associations of salt consumption with systolic blood pressure and prevalent hypertension were assessed using adjusted linear and generalized linear models. Interaction terms were tested to assess differences by age, smoking, alcohol consumption, and rural/urban status. The analysis included 2,333 participants (mean age: 37 years, 46% male, 33% urban). The average estimated salt consumption was 10g/day. No associations of salt consumption with blood pressure or prevalent hypertension were observed at a national scale in men or women. The associations did not differ in subgroups defined by age, smoking, or alcohol consumption; however, associations differed between urban and rural participants (p-value for interaction of urban/rural status with salt consumption, p = 0.02), suggesting that higher salt consumption may be associated with higher systolic blood pressure in urban residents but lower systolic blood pressure in rural residents. Although there was no evidence of an association at a national level, associations of salt consumption with blood pressure differed between urban and rural residents in Viet Nam. The reasons for this differential association are not clear, and given the large rate of rural to urban migration experienced in Viet Nam, this topic warrants further investigation.

Estimating Acute Viral Hepatitis Infections From Nationally Reported Cases

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Stephen; Roberts, Henry; Jiles, Ruth B.; Holmberg, Scott D.

2014-01-01

Objectives. Because only a fraction of patients with acute viral hepatitis A, B, and C are reported through national surveillance to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we estimated the true numbers. Methods. We applied a simple probabilistic model to estimate the fraction of patients with acute hepatitis A, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C who would have been symptomatic, would have sought health care tests, and would have been reported to health officials in 2011. Results. For hepatitis A, the frequencies of symptoms (85%), care seeking (88%), and reporting (69%) yielded an estimate of 2730 infections (2.0 infections per reported case). For hepatitis B, the frequencies of symptoms (39%), care seeking (88%), and reporting (45%) indicated 18 730 infections (6.5 infections per reported case). For hepatitis C, the frequency of symptoms among injection drug users (13%) and those infected otherwise (48%), proportion seeking care (88%), and percentage reported (53%) indicated 17 100 infections (12.3 infections per reported case). Conclusions. These adjustment factors will allow state and local health authorities to estimate acute hepatitis infections locally and plan prevention activities accordingly. PMID:24432918

Estimating Gender Wage Gaps: A Data Update

Science.gov (United States)

McDonald, Judith A.; Thornton, Robert J.

2016-01-01

In the authors' 2011 "JEE" article, "Estimating Gender Wage Gaps," they described an interesting class project that allowed students to estimate the current gender earnings gap for recent college graduates using data from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE). Unfortunately, since 2012, NACE no longer…

Trends in Healthcare Expenditures Among US Adults With Hypertension: National Estimates, 2003-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirkland, Elizabeth B; Heincelman, Marc; Bishu, Kinfe G; Schumann, Samuel O; Schreiner, Andrew; Axon, R Neal; Mauldin, Patrick D; Moran, William P

2018-05-30

One in 3 US adults has high blood pressure, or hypertension. As prior projections suggest hypertension is the costliest of all cardiovascular diseases, it is important to define the current state of healthcare expenditures related to hypertension. We used a nationally representative database, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, to calculate the estimated annual healthcare expenditure for patients with hypertension and to measure trends in expenditure longitudinally over a 12-year period. A 2-part model was used to estimate adjusted incremental expenditures for individuals with hypertension versus those without hypertension. Sex, race/ethnicity, education, insurance status, census region, income, marital status, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and year category were included as covariates. The 2003-2014 pooled data include a total sample of 224 920 adults, of whom 36.9% had hypertension. Unadjusted mean annual medical expenditure attributable to patients with hypertension was $9089. Relative to individuals without hypertension, individuals with hypertension had $1920 higher annual adjusted incremental expenditure, 2.5 times the inpatient cost, almost double the outpatient cost, and nearly triple the prescription medication expenditure. Based on the prevalence of hypertension in the United States, the estimated adjusted annual incremental cost is $131 billion per year higher for the hypertensive adult population compared with the nonhypertensive population. Individuals with hypertension are estimated to face nearly $2000 higher annual healthcare expenditure compared with their nonhypertensive peers. This trend has been relatively stable over 12 years. Healthcare costs associated with hypertension account for about $131 billion. This warrants intense effort toward hypertension prevention and management. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Ukraine National Energy Current State and Modelling its Long-Term Development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shulzhenko, S.

2016-01-01

Structure of Ukrainian energy sector, its current challenges, drivers of its development and possible long-term pathways, and methodological approaches and methods of mathematical modelling of long-term national energy development.(author).

Assessing the Impact of Current National Policies to Reduce Salt ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Assessing the Impact of Current National Policies to Reduce Salt and Trans Fatty Acids in Argentina ... The Codex Alimentarius, or international food safety standards, will also decrease trans fatty acids (TFA) ... Researchers will develop a strategy to share results with policymakers and other stakeholders. ... Journal articles.

Convolution-based estimation of organ dose in tube current modulated CT

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Xiaoyu; Segars, W. Paul; Dixon, Robert L.; Samei, Ehsan

2016-05-01

Estimating organ dose for clinical patients requires accurate modeling of the patient anatomy and the dose field of the CT exam. The modeling of patient anatomy can be achieved using a library of representative computational phantoms (Samei et al 2014 Pediatr. Radiol. 44 460-7). The modeling of the dose field can be challenging for CT exams performed with a tube current modulation (TCM) technique. The purpose of this work was to effectively model the dose field for TCM exams using a convolution-based method. A framework was further proposed for prospective and retrospective organ dose estimation in clinical practice. The study included 60 adult patients (age range: 18-70 years, weight range: 60-180 kg). Patient-specific computational phantoms were generated based on patient CT image datasets. A previously validated Monte Carlo simulation program was used to model a clinical CT scanner (SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare, Forchheim, Germany). A practical strategy was developed to achieve real-time organ dose estimation for a given clinical patient. CTDIvol-normalized organ dose coefficients ({{h}\\text{Organ}} ) under constant tube current were estimated and modeled as a function of patient size. Each clinical patient in the library was optimally matched to another computational phantom to obtain a representation of organ location/distribution. The patient organ distribution was convolved with a dose distribution profile to generate {{≤ft(\\text{CTD}{{\\text{I}}\\text{vol}}\\right)}\\text{organ, \\text{convolution}}} values that quantified the regional dose field for each organ. The organ dose was estimated by multiplying {{≤ft(\\text{CTD}{{\\text{I}}\\text{vol}}\\right)}\\text{organ, \\text{convolution}}} with the organ dose coefficients ({{h}\\text{Organ}} ). To validate the accuracy of this dose estimation technique, the organ dose of the original clinical patient was estimated using Monte Carlo program with TCM profiles explicitly modeled. The

Estimating the National Carbon Abatement Potential of City Policies: A Data- Driven Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eric O’Shaughnessy, Jenny Heeter, David Keyser, Pieter Gagnon, and Alexandra Aznar

2016-10-01

Cities are increasingly taking actions such as building code enforcement, urban planning, and public transit expansion to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide in their communities and municipal operations. However, many cities lack the quantitative information needed to estimate policy impacts and prioritize city actions in terms of carbon abatement potential and cost effectiveness. This report fills this research gap by providing methodologies to assess the carbon abatement potential of a variety of city actions. The methodologies are applied to an energy use data set of 23,458 cities compiled for the U.S. Department of Energy’s City Energy Profile tool. The analysis estimates the national carbon abatement potential of the most commonly implemented actions in six specific policy areas. The results of this analysis suggest that, in aggregate, cities could reduce nationwide carbon emissions by about 210 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MMT CO₂) per year in a "moderate abatement scenario" by 2035 and 480 MMT CO₂/year in a "high abatement scenario" by 2035 through these common actions typically within a city’s control in the six policy areas. The aggregate carbon abatement potential of these specific areas equates to a reduction of 3%-7% relative to 2013 U.S. emissions. At the city level, the results suggest the average city could reduce carbon emissions by 7% (moderate) to 19% (high) relative to current city-level emissions. City carbon abatement potential is sensitive to national and state policies that affect the carbon intensity of electricity and transportation. Specifically, the U.S. Clean Power Plan and further renewable energy cost reductions could reduce city carbon emissions overall, helping cities achieve their carbon reduction goals.

Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related Sustainable Development Goals in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

2017-01-01

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) triggered increased demand for data on child and maternal mortality for monitoring progress. With the advent of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition towards non-communicable diseases, policy makers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper draws lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease study (BOD) on capacity development for NHEs, and discusses the contributions and limitation of GHEs in informing policies at country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and sub-national levels. Initially, the quality of cause of death reporting in the death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This helped improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and effective interfaces between researchers and decision makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, while sub-national data are intended to be used by various sub-national-level partners. Though GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

Adult Current Smoking: Differences in Definitions and Prevalence Estimates—NHIS and NSDUH, 2008

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Heather; Trosclair, Angela; Gfroerer, Joe

2012-01-01

Objectives. To compare prevalence estimates and assess issues related to the measurement of adult cigarette smoking in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). Methods. 2008 data on current cigarette smoking and current daily cigarette smoking among adults ≥18 years were compared. The standard NHIS current smoking definition, which screens for lifetime smoking ≥100 cigarettes, was used. For NSDUH, both the standard current smoking definition, which does not screen, and a modified definition applying the NHIS current smoking definition (i.e., with screen) were used. Results. NSDUH consistently yielded higher current cigarette smoking estimates than NHIS and lower daily smoking estimates. However, with use of the modified NSDUH current smoking definition, a notable number of subpopulation estimates became comparable between surveys. Younger adults and racial/ethnic minorities were most impacted by the lifetime smoking screen, with Hispanics being the most sensitive to differences in smoking variable definitions among all subgroups. Conclusions. Differences in current cigarette smoking definitions appear to have a greater impact on smoking estimates in some sub-populations than others. Survey mode differences may also limit intersurvey comparisons and trend analyses. Investigators are cautioned to use data most appropriate for their specific research questions. PMID:22649464

Adult Current Smoking: Differences in Definitions and Prevalence Estimates—NHIS and NSDUH, 2008

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heather Ryan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. To compare prevalence estimates and assess issues related to the measurement of adult cigarette smoking in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH. Methods. 2008 data on current cigarette smoking and current daily cigarette smoking among adults ≥18 years were compared. The standard NHIS current smoking definition, which screens for lifetime smoking ≥100 cigarettes, was used. For NSDUH, both the standard current smoking definition, which does not screen, and a modified definition applying the NHIS current smoking definition (i.e., with screen were used. Results. NSDUH consistently yielded higher current cigarette smoking estimates than NHIS and lower daily smoking estimates. However, with use of the modified NSDUH current smoking definition, a notable number of subpopulation estimates became comparable between surveys. Younger adults and racial/ethnic minorities were most impacted by the lifetime smoking screen, with Hispanics being the most sensitive to differences in smoking variable definitions among all subgroups. Conclusions. Differences in current cigarette smoking definitions appear to have a greater impact on smoking estimates in some sub-populations than others. Survey mode differences may also limit intersurvey comparisons and trend analyses. Investigators are cautioned to use data most appropriate for their specific research questions.

Tracking Psychosocial Health in Adults with Epilepsy—Estimates from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Kobau, R; Cui, W; Kadima, N; Zack, MM; Sajatovic, M; Kaiboriboon, K; Jobst, B

2015-01-01

Objective This study provides population-based estimates of psychosocial health among U.S. adults with epilepsy from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey. Methods Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the prevalence of the following measures of psychosocial health among adults with and those without epilepsy: 1) the Kessler-6 scale of Serious Psychological Distress; 2) cognitive limitation; the extent of impairments associated with psychological problems; and work limitation; 3) Social participation; and 4) the Patient Reported Outcome Measurement Information System Global Health scale. Results Compared with adults without epilepsy, adults with epilepsy, especially those with active epilepsy, reported significantly worse psychological health, more cognitive impairment, difficulty in participating in some social activities, and reduced health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Conclusions These disparities in psychosocial health in U.S. adults with epilepsy serve as baseline national estimates of their HRQOL, consistent with Healthy People 2020 national objectives on HRQOL. PMID:25305435

Six types Monte Carlo for estimating the current unavailability of Markov system with dependent repair

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao Gang; Li Zhizhong

2004-01-01

Based on integral equaiton describing the life-history of Markov system, six types of estimators of the current unavailability of Markov system with dependent repair are propounded. Combining with the biased sampling of state transition time of system, six types of Monte Carlo for estimating the current unavailability are given. Two numerical examples are given to deal with the variances and efficiencies of the six types of Monte Carlo methods. (authors)

Rotavirus in Ireland: national estimates of disease burden, 1997 to 1998.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Lynch, M

2012-02-03

BACKGROUND: We estimated the disease burden caused by rotavirus hospitalizations in the Republic of Ireland by using national data on the number of hospitalizations for diarrhea in children and laboratory surveillance of confirmed rotavirus detections. METHODS: We examined trends in diarrheal hospitalizations among children <5 years old as coded by ICD-9-CM for the period January, 1997, to December, 1998. We collated data on laboratory-confirmed rotavirus detections nationally for the same period among children <2 years old. We calculated the overall contribution of rotavirus to laboratory-confirmed intestinal disease in children <5 years old from INFOSCAN, a disease bulletin for one-third of the population. We compared data from all sources and estimated the proportion of diarrheal hospitalizations that are likely the result of rotavirus in children <5 years old. RESULTS: In children <5 years old, 9% of all hospitalizations are for diarrheal illness. In this age group 1 in 8 are hospitalized for a diarrheal illness, and 1 in 17 are hospitalized for rotavirus by 5 years of age. In hospitalized children <2 years old, 1 in 38 have a laboratory confirmed rotavirus infection. CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of rotavirus hospitalizations is higher than in other industrialized countries. Access to comprehensive national databases may have contributed to the high hospitalization rates, as well as a greater tendency to hospitalize children with diarrhea in Ireland.

Current cigarette smoking among in-school American youth: results from the 2004 National Youth Tobacco Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muula Adamson S

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Tobacco use is a leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality. In the developed nations where the burden from infectious diseases is lower, the burden of disease from tobacco use is especially magnified. Understanding the factors that may be associated with adolescent cigarette smoking may aid in the design of prevention programs. Methods A secondary analysis of the 2004 United States National Youth Tobacco Survey was carried out to estimate the association between current cigarette smoking and selected smoking-related variables. Study participants were recruited from middle and high schools in the United States. Logistic regression analysis using SUDAAN software was conducted to estimate the association between smoking and the following explanatory variables: age, sex, race-ethnicity, peer smoking, living in the same household as a smoker, amount of pocket money at the disposal of the adolescents, and perception that smoking is not harmful to health. Results Of the 27727 respondents whose data were analysed, 15.9% males and 15.3% females reported being current cigarette smokers. In multivariate analysis, compared to Whites, respondents from almost all ethnic groups were less likely to report current cigarette smoking: Blacks (OR = 0.52; 95% CI [0.44, 0.60], Asians (OR = 0.45; 95% CI [0.35, 0.58], Hispanic (OR = 0.81; 95% CI [0.71, 0.92], and Hawaii/Pacific Islanders (OR = 0.69; 95% CI [0.52, 0.93]. American Indians were equally likely to be current smokers as whites, OR = 0.98 [95% CI; 0.79, 1.22]. Participants who reported living with a smoker were more than twice as likely to smoke as those who did not live with a cigarette smoker (OR = 2.73; 95% CI [2.21, 3.04]. Having friends who smoked was positively associated with smoking (OR = 2.27; 95% CI [1.91, 2.71] for one friend who smoked, and OR = 2.71; 95% CI [2.21, 3.33] for two or more friends who smoked. Subjects who perceived that it was safe to smoke for one or

Estimates of global, regional, and national annual CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring: 1950--1992

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boden, T.A.; Marland, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Andres, R.J. [University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Northern Engineering

1995-12-01

This document describes the compilation, content, and format of the most comprehensive C0{sub 2}-emissions database currently available. The database includes global, regional, and national annual estimates of C0{sub 2} emissions resulting from fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing, and gas flaring in oil fields for 1950--92 as well as the energy production, consumption, and trade data used for these estimates. The methods of Marland and Rotty (1983) are used to calculate these emission estimates. For the first time, the methods and data used to calculate CO, emissions from gas flaring are presented. This C0{sub 2}-emissions database is useful for carbon-cycle research, provides estimates of the rate at which fossil-fuel combustion has released C0{sub 2} to the atmosphere, and offers baseline estimates for those countries compiling 1990 C0{sub 2}-emissions inventories.

Estimating the Effective Lower Bound for the Czech National Bank's Policy Rate

OpenAIRE

Kolcunova, Dominika; Havranek, Tomas

2018-01-01

The paper focuses on the estimation of the effective lower bound for the Czech National Bank's policy rate. The effective lower bound is determined by the value below which holding and using cash would be more convenient than deposits with negative yields. This bound is approximated based on storage, the insurance and transportation costs of cash and the costs associated with the loss of the convenience of cashless payments and complemented with the estimate based on interest charges, which p...

Harmonizing estimates of forest land area from national-level forest inventory and satellite imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnie Ruefenacht; Mark D. Nelson; Mark Finco

2009-01-01

Estimates of forest land area are derived both from national-level forest inventories and satellite image-based map products. These estimates can differ substantially within subregional extents (e.g., states or provinces) primarily due to differences in definitions of forest land between inventory- and image-based approaches. We present a geospatial modeling approach...

The national registry for radiation workers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kendall, G.M.; Dennis, J.A.

1985-01-01

The National Registry for Radiation Workers (NRRW) was set up by the National Radiological Protection Board in 1976. The analysis of registry data has four aims: a) To determine whether there is any evidence of differences in the causes of and ages at death of workers exposed to different levels of radiation and, if any differences are found, whether it seems likely that they can be attributed to radiation. b) To estimate the magnitude of the risk, if any differences are found, that seem likely to be attributable to radiation. c) To estimate bounds to the possible risk for particular types of malignancy, such as leukemia. d) To compare the mortality experience of radiation workers with national mortality data and also with that of other industrial groups for whom data exist. If current estimates of the risks of ionizing radiation are correct, very few deaths will be induced in the study population and it will be impossible to detect them statistically. The NRRW currently includes records for over 60,000 individuals. 6 refs

Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related sustainable development goals.

Science.gov (United States)

Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

2016-01-01

The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Initially, the quality of cause-of-death reporting in death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This method helped to improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and an effective interface between researchers and decision-makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, whereas subnational data are intended to be used by various subnational partners. Although GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

Estimating the recreational-use value for hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Nillesen, Eleonora; Wesseler, Justus; Cook, Averil

2005-08-01

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors' own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be dollar AUS 250,825 per year, or dollar AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies valuing recreational benefits. The management of the park can use these estimates when considering the introduction of a system of user pays fees. In addition, they might be important when decisions need to be made about the allocation of resources for maintenance or upgrade of tracks and facilities.

An integrated model for estimating energy cost of a tidal current turbine farm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Ye; Lence, Barbara J.; Calisal, Sander M.

2011-01-01

A tidal current turbine is a device for harnessing energy from tidal currents and functions in a manner similar to a wind turbine. A tidal current turbine farm consists of a group of tidal current turbines distributed in a site where high-speed current is available. The accurate prediction of energy cost of a tidal current turbine farm is important to the justification of planning and constructing such a farm. However, the existing approaches used to predict energy cost of tidal current turbine farms oversimplify the hydrodynamic interactions between turbines in energy prediction and oversimplify the operation and maintenance strategies involved in cost estimation as well as related fees. In this paper, we develop a model, which integrates a marine hydrodynamic model with high accuracy for predicting energy output and a comprehensive cost-effective operation and maintenance model for estimating the cost that may be incurred in producing the energy, to predict energy cost from a tidal current turbine farm. This model is expected to be able to simulate more complicated cases and generate more accurate results than existing models. As there is no real tidal current turbine farm, we validate this model with offshore wind studies. Finally, case studies about Vancouver are conducted with a scenario-based analysis. We minimize the energy cost by minimizing the total cost and maximizing the total power output under constraints related to the local conditions (e.g., geological and labor information) and the turbine specifications. The results suggest that tidal current energy is about ready to penetrate the electricity market in some major cities in North America if learning curve for the operational and maintenance is minimum. (author)

Regional economic impacts of current and proposed management alternatives for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge

Science.gov (United States)

Koontz, Lynne; Sexton, Natalie; Ishizaki, Asuka; Ritten, John

2013-01-01

The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan (CCP). The CCP must describe the desired future conditions of a refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. Charles M. Russell (CMR) National Wildlife Refuge, located in north-central Montana, is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the CCP. The CCP for the Refuge must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed refuge-management strategies. For refuge CCP planning, an economic analysis provides a means of estimating how current management (No Action Alternative) and proposed management activities (Alternatives) affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of information: (1) it illustrates a refuge’s contribution to the local community; and (2) it can help in determining whether economic effects are or are not a real concern in choosing among management alternatives. It is important to note that the economic value of a refuge encompasses more than just the impacts on the regional economy. Refuges also provide substantial nonmarket values (values for items not exchanged in established markets) such as maintaining endangered species, preserving wetlands, educating future generations, and adding stability to the ecosystem (Carver and Caudill, 2007). However, quantifying these types of nonmarket values is beyond the scope of this study. This report first presents a description of the local community and economy near the Refuge. Next, the methods used to conduct a regional economic impact analysis are described. An analysis of the final CCP management strategies that could affect stakeholders and residents and the local economy is then presented. The refuge management activities of economic concern in this analysis are:

Use of non-invasive genetics to generate core-area population estimates of a threatened predator in the Superior National Forest, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Barber-Meyer, Shannon; Ryan, Daniel; Grosshuesch, David; Catton, Timothy; Malick-Wahls, Sarah

2018-01-01

Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) are found in boreal forests of Canada and Alaska and range southward into the contiguous United States. Much less is understood about lynx in their southern range compared to northern populations. Because lynx are currently listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act but have recently been recommended for delisting, information on their southern populations is important for lynx recovery, conservation, and management. We used non-invasive, genetic data collected during lynx snowtracking surveys from 2012-2017 to generate core-area estimates of abundance, trend and density in selected core areas of the Superior National Forest of Minnesota, USA. Lynx abundance estimates averaged 41.8 (SD=14.7, range=24-67) during 2012-2017 in the smaller

Estimating the seismotelluric current required for observable electromagnetic ground signals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Bortnik

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We use a relatively simple model of an underground current source co-located with the earthquake hypocenter to estimate the magnitude of the seismotelluric current required to produce observable ground signatures. The Alum Rock earthquake of 31 October 2007, is used as an archetype of a typical California earthquake, and the effects of varying the ground conductivity and length of the current element are examined. Results show that for an observed 30 nT pulse at 1 Hz, the expected seismotelluric current magnitudes fall in the range ~10–100 kA. By setting the detectability threshold to 1 pT, we show that even when large values of ground conductivity are assumed, magnetic signals are readily detectable within a range of 30 km from the epicenter. When typical values of ground conductivity are assumed, the minimum current required to produce an observable signal within a 30 km range was found to be ~1 kA, which is a surprisingly low value. Furthermore, we show that deep nulls in the signal power develop in the non-cardinal directions relative to the orientation of the source current, indicating that a magnetometer station located in those regions may not observe a signal even though it is well within the detectable range. This result underscores the importance of using a network of magnetometers when searching for preseismic electromagnetic signals.

Current projects of the National Wind Coordinating Committee

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rhoads, H. [National Wind Coordinating Committee, Washington, DC (United States)

1997-12-31

This paper summarizes the activities of the National Wind Coordinating Committee (NWCC), a multi-stakeholder collaborative formed in 1994 to support the responsible use of wind power in the USA. The NWCC`s vision is a self-sustaining commercial market for wind power - environmentally, economically, and politically sustainable. Current NWCC activities include: outreach initiatives, disseminating information about wind energy to regulators and legislators through the Wind Energy Issue Paper Series, researching distributed wind energy models, producing a wind facility permitting handbook, improving avian research, addressing transmission and resource assessment issues, and exploring sustainable development and marketing approaches.

Current knowledge of US metal and nonmetal miner health: Current and potential data sources for analysis of miner health status

Science.gov (United States)

Yeoman, K. M.; Halldin, C. N.; Wood, J.; Storey, E.; Johns, D.; Laney, A. S.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Little is known about the current health status of US metal and nonmetal (MNM) miners, in part because no health surveillance systems exist for this population. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) is developing a program to characterize burden of disease among MNM miners. This report discusses current knowledge and potential data sources of MNM miner health. Recent national surveys were analyzed, and literature specific to MNM miner health status was reviewed. No robust estimates of disease prevalence were identified, and national surveys did not provide information specific to MNM miners. Because substantial gaps exist in the understanding of MNM miners' current health status, NIOSH plans to develop a health surveillance program for this population to guide intervention efforts to reduce occupational and personal risks for chronic illness. PMID:25658684

Historical estimates of national accounts magnitudes in Greece: 1830-1939

OpenAIRE

Κωστελένος, Γεώργιος Κ.

2007-01-01

The study of long run economic development is facilitated immensely by the existence of relevant data. In this context, long run national accounts magnitudes are probably the most important. This has been realized since the early 1950s by economists of the stature of Kuznets, Friedman and North and relevant time series have been estimated, originally for countries like the U.S.A. and Great Britain and subsequently for other developed and less developed countries. In Greece, how...

Estimation of Poverty in Small Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agne Bikauskaite

2014-12-01

Full Text Available A qualitative techniques of poverty estimation is needed to better implement, monitor and determine national areas where support is most required. The problem of small area estimation (SAE is the production of reliable estimates in areas with small samples. The precision of estimates in strata deteriorates (i.e. the precision decreases when the standard deviation increases, if the sample size is smaller. In these cases traditional direct estimators may be not precise and therefore pointless. Currently there are many indirect methods for SAE. The purpose of this paper is to analyze several diff erent types of techniques which produce small area estimates of poverty.

Surface CUrrents from a Diagnostic model (SCUD): Pacific

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The SCUD data product is an estimate of upper-ocean velocities computed from a diagnostic model (Surface CUrrents from a Diagnostic model). This model makes daily...

Microcephaly Case Fatality Rate Associated with Zika Virus Infection in Brazil: Current Estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunha, Antonio José Ledo Alves da; de Magalhães-Barbosa, Maria Clara; Lima-Setta, Fernanda; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade; Prata-Barbosa, Arnaldo

2017-05-01

Considering the currently confirmed cases of microcephaly and related deaths associated with Zika virus in Brazil, the estimated case fatality rate is 8.3% (95% confidence interval: 7.2-9.6). However, a third of the reported cases remain under investigation. If the confirmation rates of cases and deaths are the same in the future, the estimated case fatality rate will be as high as 10.5% (95% confidence interval: 9.5-11.7).

The transition to early fatherhood: National estimates based on multiple surveys

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Elizabeth Peters

2008-04-01

Full Text Available This study provides systematic information about the prevalence of early male fertility and the relationship between family background characteristics and early parenthood across three widely used data sources: the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth and the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth. We provide descriptive statistics on early fertility by age, sex, race, cohort, and data set. Because each data set includes birth cohorts with varying early fertility rates, prevalence estimates for early male fertility are relatively similar across data sets. Associations between background characteristics and early fertility in regression models are less consistent across data sets. We discuss the implications of these findings for scholars doing research on early male fertility.

National Estimates of Male and Female Enrolment in American High School Choirs, Bands and Orchestras

Science.gov (United States)

Elpus, Kenneth

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate, at a national level and over time, the participation rates of males and females among those students who formally enrol in American high school music ensembles. Ten cohorts of nationally representative samples of students from 1982 and 2009 were analysed using data from High School Transcript Studies…

Estimated cost of overactive bladder in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Prasopsanti, Kriangsak; Santi-Ngamkun, Apirak; Pornprasit, Kanokwan

2007-11-01

To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of overactive bladder (OAB) in indigenous Thai people aged 18 years and over in the year 2005. Economically based models using diagnostic and treatment algorithms from clinical practice guidelines and current disease prevalence data were used to estimate direct and indirect costs of OAB. Prevalence and event probability estimates were obtained from the literature, national data sets, and expert opinion. Costs were estimated from a small survey using a cost questionnaire and from unit costs of King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. The annual cost of OAB in Thailand is estimated as 1.9 billion USD. It is estimated to consume 1.14% of national GDP The cost includes 0.33 billion USD for direct medical costs, 1.3 billion USD for direct, nonmedical costs and 0.29 billion USD for indirect costs of lost productivity. The largest costs category was direct treatment costs of comorbidities associated with OAB. Costs of OAB medication accountedfor 14% of the total costs ofOAB.

Estimating the Recreational-Use Value for Hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

OpenAIRE

Nillesen, E.E.M.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

2005-01-01

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors' own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be $AUS 250,825 per year, or $AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies v...

Estimation of Water Footprint Compartments in National Wheat Production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Ababaei

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Water use and pollution have raised to a critical level in many compartments of the world. If humankind is to meet the challenges over the coming fifty years, the agricultural share of water use has to be substantially reduced. In this study, a modern yet simple approach has been proposed through the introduction concept ‘Water Footprint’ (WF. This concept can be used to study the connection between each product and the water allocation to produce that product. This research estimates the green, blue and gray WF of wheat in Iran. Also a new WF compartment (white is used that is related about irrigation water loss. Materials and Methods: The national green (Effective precipitation, blue (Net irrigation requirement, gray (For diluting chemical fertilizers and white (Irrigation water losses water footprints (WF of wheat production were estimated for fifteen major wheat producing provinces of Iran. Evapotranspiration, irrigation requirement, gross irrigation requirement and effective rainfall were got using the AGWAT model. Yields of irrigated and rain-fed lands of each province were got from Iran Agricultural-Jihad Ministry. Another compartment of the wheat production WF is related about the volume of water required to assimilate the fertilizers leached in runoff (gray WF. Moreover, a new concept of white water footprint was proposed here and represents irrigation water losses, which was neglected in the original calculation framework. Finally, the national WF compartments of wheat production were estimated by taking the average of each compartment over all the provinces weighted by the share of each province in total wheat production of the selected provinces. Results and Discussion: In 2006-2012, more than 67% of the national wheat production was irrigated and 32.3% were rain-fed, on average, while 37.9% of the total wheat-cultivated lands were irrigated and 62.1% was rain-fed from more than 6,568 -ha. The total national WF of

Tax planning: analysis between national simple and the estimated gain

OpenAIRE

Bassoli, Marlene Kempfer; Somma, Giovana Mattioli

2010-01-01

This study was initiated because of the need to define the legal situation that, really, is the tax planning in Brazil. The use of comparative method between the estimated gain and the national simple level to clarify an avoidance induced by the law, mainly, demonstrate the possibility of a reduced tax burden and tax savings for companies. Under the focus of the State of Law that honors the principles of strict legality and typicality closed. At first, the article focuses on Tax Planning, tal...

Estimating the Recreational-Use Value for Hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nillesen, E.E.M.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

2005-01-01

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors' own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an

A Review of Material Properties Estimation Using Eddy Current Testing and Capacitor Imaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohd. Amri Yunus

2009-01-01

Full Text Available he non destructive testing applications based on inductive (eddy current testing and capacitive sensors are widely used for imaging of material properties. The simple structure, safe to use, low cost, non contact application, good response at medium range frequency of the sensors make them preferable to be used in the industries. The aim of this study is to talk about the material properties estimation applications using eddy current testing and capacitive sensing. The basic operations of eddy current testing and capacitive sensing with example of application in the non destructive testing are discussed. Next, the recent advancements of eddy current testing and capacitive testing in imaging technique are presented in this paper.

Evaluating Current Practices in Shelf Life Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Capen, Robert; Christopher, David; Forenzo, Patrick; Huynh-Ba, Kim; LeBlond, David; Liu, Oscar; O'Neill, John; Patterson, Nate; Quinlan, Michelle; Rajagopalan, Radhika; Schwenke, James; Stroup, Walter

2018-02-01

The current International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) methods for determining the supported shelf life of a drug product, described in ICH guidance documents Q1A and Q1E, are evaluated in this paper. To support this evaluation, an industry data set is used which is comprised of 26 individual stability batches of a common drug product where most batches are measured over a 24 month storage period. Using randomly sampled sets of 3 or 6 batches from the industry data set, the current ICH methods are assessed from three perspectives. First, the distributional properties of the supported shelf lives are summarized and compared to the distributional properties of the true shelf lives associated with the industry data set, assuming the industry data set represents a finite population of drug product batches for discussion purposes. Second, the results of the ICH "poolability" tests for model selection are summarized and the separate shelf life distributions from the possible alternative models are compared. Finally, the ICH methods are evaluated in terms of their ability to manage risk. Shelf life estimates that are too long result in an unacceptable percentage of nonconforming batches at expiry while those that are too short put the manufacturer at risk of possibly having to prematurely discard safe and efficacious drug product. Based on the analysis of the industry data set, the ICH-recommended approach did not produce supported shelf lives that effectively managed risk. Alternative approaches are required.

Estimation of current density distribution of PAFC by analysis of cell exhaust gas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kato, S.; Seya, A. [Fuji Electric Co., Ltd., Ichihara-shi (Japan); Asano, A. [Fuji Electric Corporate, Ltd., Yokosuka-shi (Japan)

1996-12-31

To estimate distributions of Current densities, voltages, gas concentrations, etc., in phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) stacks, is very important for getting fuel cells with higher quality. In this work, we leave developed a numerical simulation tool to map out the distribution in a PAFC stack. And especially to Study Current density distribution in the reaction area of the cell, we analyzed gas composition in several positions inside a gas outlet manifold of the PAFC stack. Comparing these measured data with calculated data, the current density distribution in a cell plane calculated by the simulation, was certified.

Hydrologic Connectivity Estimated throughout the Nation's River Corridors

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, J. W.; Gomez-Velez, J. D.

2015-12-01

Hydrologic connectivity is a key concept that integrates longitudinal transport in rivers with vertical and lateral exchanges between rivers and hyporheic zones, riparian wetlands, floodplains, and ponded aquatic ecosystems. Desirable levels of connectivity are thought to be associated with rivers that are well-connected longitudinally while also being well connected vertically and laterally with marginal waters where carbon and nutrients are efficiently transformed, and where aquatic organisms feed, or are reared, or take refuge during floods. But what is the proper balance between longitudinal and vertical and lateral connectivity? We took a step towards quantifying hydrologic connectivity using the model NEXSS (Gomez-Velez and Harvey, 2014, GRL) applied throughout the nation's rivers. NEXSS simulates vertical and lateral connectivity and compares it with longitudinal transport along the river's main axis. It uses as inputs measured network topology for first to eighth order channels, river hydraulic geometry, sediment grain size, bedform types and sizes, estimated hydraulic conductivity of sediments, and estimates of reaction rates such as denitrification. Results indicate that hyporheic flow is large enough to exchange a river's entire volume many times within a river network, which increases biogeochemical opportunities for nutrient processing and attenuation of contaminants. Also, the analysis demonstrated why and where (i.e., in which physiographic regions of the nation) are hyporheic flow and solute reactions the greatest. The cumulative influence of hydrologic connectivity on water quality is expressed by a dimensionless index of reaction significance. Our quantification of hydrologic connectivity adds a physical basis that supports water quality modeling, and also supports scientifically based prioritization of management actions (e.g. stream restoration) and may support other types of actions (e.g. legislative actions) to help conserve healthy functional

Optical Estimation of Depth and Current in a Ebb Tidal Delta Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Holman, R. A.; Stanley, J.

2012-12-01

A key limitation to our ability to make nearshore environmental predictions is the difficulty of obtaining up-to-date bathymetry measurements at a reasonable cost and frequency. Due to the high cost and complex logistics of in-situ methods, research into remote sensing approaches has been steady and has finally yielded fairly robust methods like the cBathy algorithm for optical Argus data that show good performance on simple barred beach profiles and near immunity to noise and signal problems. In May, 2012, data were collected in a more complex ebb tidal delta environment during the RIVET field experiment at New River Inlet, NC. The presence of strong reversing tidal currents led to significant errors in cBathy depths that were phase-locked to the tide. In this paper we will test methods for the robust estimation of both depths and vector currents in a tidal delta domain. In contrast to previous Fourier methods, wavenumber estimation in cBathy can be done on small enough scales to resolve interesting nearshore features.

Delivery of antiretroviral treatment services in India: Estimated costs incurred under the National AIDS Control Programme.

Science.gov (United States)

Agarwal, Reshu; Rewari, Bharat Bhushan; Shastri, Suresh; Nagaraja, Sharath Burugina; Rathore, Abhilakh Singh

2017-04-01

Competing domestic health priorities and shrinking financial support from external agencies necessitates that India's National AIDS Control Programme (NACP) brings in cost efficiencies to sustain the programme. In addition, current plans to expand the criteria for eligibility for antiretroviral therapy (ART) in India will have significant financial implications in the near future. ART centres in India provide comprehensive services to people living with HIV (PLHIV): those fulfilling national eligibility criteria and receiving ART and those on pre-ART care, i.e. not on ART. ART centres are financially supported (i) directly by the NACP; and (ii) indirectly by general health systems. This study was conducted to determine (i) the cost incurred per patient per year of pre-ART and ART services at ART centres; and (ii) the proportion of this cost incurred by the NACP and by general health systems. The study used national data from April 2013 to March 2014, on ART costs and non-ART costs (human resources, laboratory tests, training, prophylaxis and management of opportunistic infections, hospitalization, operational, and programme management). Data were extracted from procurement records and reports, statements of expenditure at national and state level, records and reports from ART centres, databases of the National AIDS Control Organisation, and reports on use of antiretroviral drugs. The analysis estimates the cost for ART services as US$ 133.89 (?8032) per patient per year, of which 66% (US$ 88.66, ?5320) is for antiretroviral drugs and 34% (US$ 45.23, ?2712) is for non-ART recurrent expenditure, while the cost for pre-ART care is US$ 33.05 (?1983) per patient per year. The low costs incurred for patients in ART and pre-ART care services can be attributed mainly to the low costs of generic drugs. However, further integration with general health systems may facilitate additional cost saving, such as in human resources.

High-performance control of a three-phase voltage-source converter including feedforward compensation of the estimated load current

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leon, Andres E.; Solsona, Jorge A.; Busada, Claudio; Chiacchiarini, Hector; Valla, Maria Ines

2009-01-01

In this paper a new control strategy for voltage-source converters (VSC) is introduced. The proposed strategy consists of a nonlinear feedback controller based on feedback linearization plus a feedforward compensation of the estimated load current. In our proposal an energy function and the direct-axis current are considered as outputs, in order to avoid the internal dynamics. In this way, a full linearization is obtained via nonlinear transformation and feedback. An estimate of the load current is feedforwarded to improve the performance of the whole system and to diminish the capacitor size. This estimation allows to obtain a more rugged and cheaper implementation. The estimate is calculated by using a nonlinear reduced-order observer. The proposal is validated through different tests. These tests include performance in presence of switching frequency, measurement filters delays, parameters uncertainties and disturbances in the input voltage.

Methods for the estimation of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence cost-effectiveness threshold.

Science.gov (United States)

Claxton, Karl; Martin, Steve; Soares, Marta; Rice, Nigel; Spackman, Eldon; Hinde, Sebastian; Devlin, Nancy; Smith, Peter C; Sculpher, Mark

2015-02-01

when PCTs are under more financial pressure and are more likely to be disinvesting than investing. This indicates that the central estimate of the threshold is likely to be an overestimate for all technologies which impose net costs on the NHS and the appropriate threshold to apply should be lower for technologies which have a greater impact on NHS costs. The central estimate is based on identifying a preferred analysis at each stage based on the analysis that made the best use of available information, whether or not the assumptions required appeared more reasonable than the other alternatives available, and which provided a more complete picture of the likely health effects of a change in expenditure. However, the limitation of currently available data means that there is substantial uncertainty associated with the estimate of the overall threshold. The methods go some way to providing an empirical estimate of the scale of opportunity costs the NHS faces when considering whether or not the health benefits associated with new technologies are greater than the health that is likely to be lost elsewhere in the NHS. Priorities for future research include estimating the threshold for subsequent waves of expenditure and outcome data, for example by utilising expenditure and outcomes available at the level of Clinical Commissioning Groups as well as additional data collected on QoL and updated estimates of incidence (by age and gender) and duration of disease. Nonetheless, the study also starts to make the other NHS patients, who ultimately bear the opportunity costs of such decisions, less abstract and more 'known' in social decisions. The National Institute for Health Research-Medical Research Council Methodology Research Programme.

Estimating the global prevalence of zinc deficiency: results based on zinc availability in national food supplies and the prevalence of stunting.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K Ryan Wessells

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adequate zinc nutrition is essential for adequate growth, immunocompetence and neurobehavioral development, but limited information on population zinc status hinders the expansion of interventions to control zinc deficiency. The present analyses were conducted to: (1 estimate the country-specific prevalence of inadequate zinc intake; and (2 investigate relationships between country-specific estimated prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and dietary patterns and stunting prevalence. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: National food balance sheet data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Country-specific estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake were calculated based on the estimated absorbable zinc content of the national food supply, International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group estimated physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, and demographic data obtained from United Nations estimates. Stunting data were obtained from a recent systematic analysis based on World Health Organization growth standards. An estimated 17.3% of the world's population is at risk of inadequate zinc intake. Country-specific estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake was negatively correlated with the total energy and zinc contents of the national food supply and the percent of zinc obtained from animal source foods, and positively correlated with the phytate: zinc molar ratio of the food supply. The estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake was correlated with the prevalence of stunting (low height-for-age in children under five years of age (r = 0.48, P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: These results, which indicate that inadequate dietary zinc intake may be fairly common, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, allow inter-country comparisons regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem. Data from these analyses should be used to determine

Support vector machine based estimation of remaining useful life: current research status and future trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Hong Zhong; Wang, Hai Kun; Li, Yan Feng; Zhang, Longlong; Liu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is helpful to manage life cycles of machines and to reduce maintenance cost. Support vector machine (SVM) is a promising algorithm for estimation of RUL because it can easily process small training sets and multi-dimensional data. Many SVM based methods have been proposed to predict RUL of some key components. We did a literature review related to SVM based RUL estimation within a decade. The references reviewed are classified into two categories: improved SVM algorithms and their applications to RUL estimation. The latter category can be further divided into two types: one, to predict the condition state in the future and then build a relationship between state and RUL; two, to establish a direct relationship between current state and RUL. However, SVM is seldom used to track the degradation process and build an accurate relationship between the current health condition state and RUL. Based on the above review and summary, this paper points out that the ability to continually improve SVM, and obtain a novel idea for RUL prediction using SVM will be future works.

Estimates of wave decay rates in the presence of turbulent currents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thais, L. [Universite des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, URA-CNRS 1441, Villenauve d' Ascq (France). Lab. de Mecanique; Chapalain, G. [Universite des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, URA-CNRS 8577, Villenauve d' Ascq (France). Sedimentologie et Geodynamique; Klopman, G. [Albatros Flow Research, Vollenhove (Netherlands); Simons, R.R. [University College, London (United Kingdom). Civil and Environmental Engineering; Thomas, G.P. [University College, Cork (Ireland). Dept. of Mathematical Physics

2001-06-01

A full-depth numerical model solving the free surface flow induced by linear water waves propagating with collinear vertically sheared turbulent currents is presented. The model is used to estimate the wave amplitude decay rate in combined wave current flows. The decay rates are compared with data collected in wave flumes by Kemp and Simons [J Fluid Mech, 116 (1982) 227; 130 (1983) 73] and Mathisen and Madsen [J Geophys Res, 101 (C7) (1996) 16,533]. We confirm the main experimental finding of Kemp and Simons that waves propagating downstream are less damped, and waves propagating upstream significantly more damped than waves on fluid at rest. A satisfactory quantitative agreement is found for the decay rates of waves propagating upstream, whereas not more than a qualitative agreement has been observed for waves propagating downstream. Finally, some wave decay rates in the presence of favourable and adverse currents are provided in typical field conditions. (Author)

Preliminary Estimate of Gypsum Deposit Based on Wenner

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Dogara M. D. and Aloa J. O.

estimating the quantity of some possible deposits of gypsum. Just ... exploitation is an everyday activity that is currently going on, but, on a 'wild cat' ... important source of wealth for a nation, but before they are harnessed ..... REFERENCES.

Improvement of the Kamide-Richmond-Matsushita scheme for the estimation of the three-dimensional current system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, W.; Lee, L.C.; Kamide, Y.; Akasofu, S.I.

1985-01-01

The algorithm developed by Kamide et al. (1981) has been extensively used in estimating ionospheric electric fields, ionospheric currents, and field-aligned currents over the entire polar region from ground magnetic chain data with a time resolution of about 5 min. However, in the considered algorithm and some other similar methods, geomagnetic field lines are assumed to be effectively radial, so that it is important to estimate errors resulting from such an assumption. In this paper, an iteration scheme is developed in which realistic curved geomagnetic field lines are employed. Both the ionospheric and field-aligned currents have been reestimated, and it was found that the correction to the ionospheric currents and the field-aligned currents obtained from the Kamide-Richmond-Matsushita scheme is 5-20 percent in the high-altitude (60 deg - 80 deg) region and is 15-35 deg in the middle latitude (less than 60 deg) region. 19 references

National contributions to observed global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthews, H Damon; Graham, Tanya L; Keverian, Serge; Lamontagne, Cassandra; Seto, Donny; Smith, Trevor J

2014-01-01

There is considerable interest in identifying national contributions to global warming as a way of allocating historical responsibility for observed climate change. This task is made difficult by uncertainty associated with national estimates of historical emissions, as well as by difficulty in estimating the climate response to emissions of gases with widely varying atmospheric lifetimes. Here, we present a new estimate of national contributions to observed climate warming, including CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change, as well as methane, nitrous oxide and sulfate aerosol emissions While some countries’ warming contributions are reasonably well defined by fossil fuel CO 2 emissions, many countries have dominant contributions from land-use CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions, emphasizing the importance of both deforestation and agriculture as components of a country’s contribution to climate warming. Furthermore, because of their short atmospheric lifetime, recent sulfate aerosol emissions have a large impact on a country’s current climate contribution We show also that there are vast disparities in both total and per-capita climate contributions among countries, and that across most developed countries, per-capita contributions are not currently consistent with attempts to restrict global temperature change to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. (paper)

Current Status of Huntington’s Disease in Korea: A Nationwide Survey and National Registry Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyun Sook Kim

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objective Huntington’s disease (HD is a rare neurological disorder, and its current status in Korea is not well investigated. This study aims to determine the prevalence and incidence of HD and to investigate the clinical features of HD patients in Korea. Methods We estimated the crude prevalence and annual incidence of HD based on the databases of the Rare Diseases Registry (RDR and the National Health Insurance (NHI. The clinical data of genetically confirmed HD patients was collected from 10 referral hospitals and analyzed. Results The mean calculated annual incidence was 0.06 cases per 100,000 persons, and the mean calculated prevalence was 0.38 based on the NHI database. The estimated crude prevalence based on the RDR was 0.41. Of the sixty-eight HD patients recruited, the mean age of onset was 44.16 ± 14.08 years and chorea was most frequently reported as the initial symptom and chief complaint. The mean CAG repeat number of the expanded allele was 44.7 ± 4.8 and correlated inversely with the age of onset (p < 0.001. About two-thirds of the patients have a positive family history, and HD patients without positive family history showed a delay in onset of initial symptoms, a prolonged interval between initial symptom onset and genetic diagnosis and a delay in the age of genetic diagnosis. Conclusions To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the prevalence and incidence of HD in Korea and the largest HD series in the Asian population. Our analyses might be useful for further studies and large-scale investigations in HD patients.

Effects of Measurement Errors on Individual Tree Stem Volume Estimates for the Austrian National Forest Inventory

Science.gov (United States)

Ambros Berger; Thomas Gschwantner; Ronald E. McRoberts; Klemens. Schadauer

2014-01-01

National forest inventories typically estimate individual tree volumes using models that rely on measurements of predictor variables such as tree height and diameter, both of which are subject to measurement error. The aim of this study was to quantify the impacts of these measurement errors on the uncertainty of the model-based tree stem volume estimates. The impacts...

Methane emissions from natural gas pipelines - current estimates, technologies and practices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lang, M.C.; Crook, L.

1997-01-01

Methane is the major component of natural gas. World-wide methane emissions from gas systems is estimated to be between 50 and 25 tera grams or about 5 percent of the world-wide total of anthropogenic methane emissions. Technologies and practices are described that are currently being used or are planned to be used in the US to both measure and/or reduce methane emissions from natural gas pipelines. One of the technologies that is described includes a high flow sampling instrument. One of the practices that is described is the current voluntary program conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency called the Natural Gas Star program. This program supports research into best management practices, information sharing and technology transfer to promote methane emissions reductions profitably. (R.P.)

National estimates for maternal mortality: an analysis based on the WHO systematic review of maternal mortality and morbidity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gülmezoglu A Metin

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the worldwide commitment to improving maternal health, measuring, monitoring and comparing maternal mortality estimates remain a challenge. Due to lack of data, international agencies have to rely on mathematical models to assess its global burden. In order to assist in mapping the burden of reproductive ill-health, we conducted a systematic review of incidence/prevalence of maternal mortality and morbidity. Methods We followed the standard methodology for systematic reviews. This manuscript presents nationally representative estimates of maternal mortality derived from the systematic review. Using regression models, relationships between study-specific and country-specific variables with the maternal mortality estimates are explored in order to assist further modelling to predict maternal mortality. Results Maternal mortality estimates included 141 countries and represent 78.1% of the live births worldwide. As expected, large variability between countries, and within regions and subregions, is identified. Analysis of variability according to study characteristics did not yield useful results given the high correlation with each other, with development status and region. A regression model including selected country-specific variables was able to explain 90% of the variability of the maternal mortality estimates. Among all country-specific variables selected for the analysis, three had the strongest relationships with maternal mortality: proportion of deliveries assisted by a skilled birth attendant, infant mortality rate and health expenditure per capita. Conclusion With the exception of developed countries, variability of national maternal mortality estimates is large even within subregions. It seems more appropriate to study such variation through differentials in other national and subnational characteristics. Other than region, study of country-specific variables suggests infant mortality rate, skilled birth

Quantitative estimation of defects from measurement obtained by remote field eddy current inspection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davoust, M.E.; Fleury, G.

1999-01-01

Remote field eddy current technique is used for dimensioning grooves that may occurs in ferromagnetic pipes. This paper proposes a method to estimate the depth and the length of corrosion grooves from measurement of a pick-up coil signal phase at different positions close to the defect. Grooves dimensioning needs the knowledge of the physical relation between measurements and defect dimensions. So, finite element calculations are performed to obtain a parametric algebraic function of the physical phenomena. By means of this model and a previously defined general approach, an estimate of groove size may be given. In this approach, algebraic function parameters and groove dimensions are linked through a polynomial function. In order to validate this estimation procedure, a statistical study has been performed. The approach is proved to be suitable for real measurements. (authors)

Korean national QPE technique development: Analysis of current QPE results and future plan

Science.gov (United States)

Cha, Joo Wan

2013-04-01

Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) has developed a Real-time ADjusted Radar-AWS (Automatic Weather Station) Rainrate (RAD-RAR) system using eleven radars over the South Korea. The procedure of the RAD-RAR system in real time consists of four steps: 1) the quality control of volumetric reflectivity for each radar, 2) the computation of the every 10-min rain gauge rainfall within each radar, 3) the real time (10 min-updated) rainfall estimation by the Z-R relationship minimizing the difference between the 1.5-km constant altitude plan precipitation indicator and rain gauge rainfall based on Window Probability Matching Method(WPMM) and by the real-time bias correction of RAD-RAR conducted at every 10 minutes for each radar by making the bias, and 4) the composition of the 11-radar estimated rainfall data. In addition, a local gauge correction method applies for RAD-RAR system. Therefore, the correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.81 is obtained between the daily accumulated observed and RAD-RAR estimated rainfall in 2012. We like to develop a new QPE system using the multi-sensor(radar, rain gauge, numerical model output, and lightning) data for newly improving Korean national QPE system. We made the prototype QPE system in 2012 and improve the detail techniques now. In the future, the new high performance QPE system will include a dual polarization radar observation technique for providing more accurate and valuable national QPE data

Comparing MODIS Net Primary Production Estimates with Terrestrial National Forest Inventory Data in Austria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathias Neumann

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The mission of this study is to compare Net Primary Productivity (NPP estimates using (i forest inventory data and (ii spatio-temporally continuous MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensing data for Austria. While forest inventories assess the change in forest growth based on repeated individual tree measurements (DBH, height etc., the MODIS NPP estimates are based on ecophysiological processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and carbon allocation. We obtained repeated national forest inventory data from Austria, calculated a “ground-based” NPP estimate and compared the results with “space-based” MODIS NPP estimates using different daily climate data. The MODIS NPP estimates using local Austrian climate data exhibited better compliance with the forest inventory driven NPP estimates than the MODIS NPP predictions using global climate data sets. Stand density plays a key role in addressing the differences between MODIS driven NPP estimates versus terrestrial driven inventory NPP estimates. After addressing stand density, both results are comparable across different scales. As forest management changes stand density, these findings suggest that management issues are important in understanding the observed discrepancies between MODIS and terrestrial NPP.

Experiences on current national income measures with reference to environmental and natural resources; Esperienze e proposte relative alla correzione in senso ambientale delle misure del reddito nazionale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Franzese, R; Gaudioso, D [ENEA, Casaccia (Italy). Dipt. Ambiente

1995-06-01

The environment provides both a source of goods and services and a `sink` for residues of the production and consumption processes. This is not reflected into conventional estimate of GDP (gross domestic product), the most commonly used measure of aggregate income. The purpose of this paper is to explore whether environmentally-adjusted national income measure can be derived. In the first part, the authors discuss both the shortcomings of the current national income measures, with reference to environmental and natural resources, and the debate on this issues; then they analyse the existing experiences to provide environmentally-adjusted indicators of national accounts. In the second part, the authors present an evaluation of the costs of environmental degradation in Italy in the period 1988-1990, based on the methodologies adopted in a pilot study carried out by UNSO (United Nations Statistical Office) and the World Bank for Mexico.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate; Laboratory Implementation and Current Global Status.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, W Greg; Jones, Graham R D

2018-01-01

In 2002, the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines for identifying and treating CKD recommended that clinical laboratories report estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with every creatinine result to assist clinical practitioners to identify people with early-stage CKD. At that time, the original Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation based on serum creatinine measurements was recommended for calculating eGFR. Because the MDRD Study equation was developed using a nonstandardized creatinine method, a Laboratory Working Group of the National Kidney Disease Education program was formed and implemented standardized calibration traceability for all creatinine methods from global manufacturers by approximately 2010. A modified MDRD Study equation for use with standardized creatinine was developed. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration developed a new equation in 2009 that was more accurate than the MDRD Study equation at values above 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . As of 2017, reporting eGFR with creatinine is almost universal in many countries. A reference system for cystatin C became available in 2010, and manufacturers are in the process to standardize cystatin C assays. Equations for eGFR based on standardized cystatin C alone and with creatinine are now available from the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and other groups. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

Science.gov (United States)

Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

2003-06-01

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

Regional economic effects of current and proposed management alternatives for Arrowwood National Wildlife Refuge

Science.gov (United States)

Koontz, Lynne; Lambert, Heather

2005-01-01

The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan (CCP). The CCP must describe the desired future conditions of a Refuge and provide long range guidance and management direction to achieve Refuge purposes. Arrowwood National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), located along the James River in east central North Dakota, is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the CCP. The CCP for Arrowwood NWR must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed Refuge management strategies.

submitter Estimation of stepping motor current from long distances through cable-length-adaptive piecewise affine virtual sensor

CERN Document Server

Oliveri, Alberto; Masi, Alessandro; Storace, Marco

2015-01-01

In this paper a piecewise affine virtual sensor is used for the estimation of the motor-side current of hybrid stepper motors, which actuate the LHC (Large Hadron Collider) collimators at CERN. The estimation is performed starting from measurements of the current in the driver, which is connected to the motor by a long cable (up to 720 m). The measured current is therefore affected by noise and ringing phenomena. The proposed method does not require a model of the cable, since it is only based on measured data and can be used with cables of different length. A circuit architecture suitable for FPGA implementation has been designed and the effects of fixed point representation of data are analyzed.

National Energy Board 1992-93 estimates part III expenditure plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This Expenditure Plan is designed to be used as a reference document. As such, it contains several levels of detail to respond to the various needs of its audience. This Plan is divided into two sections. Section 1 presents an overview of the Program including a description, information on its background, objectives and planning perspective as well as performance information that forms the basis for the resources requested. Section 2 provides further information on costs and resources as well as special analyses that the reader may require to understand the Program more fully. Section 1 is preceded by details of Spending Authorities from Part 2 of the Estimates and Volume 2 of the Public Accounts. This is to provide continuity with other Estimates documents and to help in assessing the Program's financial performance over the past year. The format and organization of the document should be regarded as transitional. For the most part the document is organized to be consistent with the program structure approved for the National Energy Board. 16 figs

National Energy Board 1992-93 estimates part III expenditure plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1993-12-31

This Expenditure Plan is designed to be used as a reference document. As such, it contains several levels of detail to respond to the various needs of its audience. This Plan is divided into two sections. Section 1 presents an overview of the Program including a description, information on its background, objectives and planning perspective as well as performance information that forms the basis for the resources requested. Section 2 provides further information on costs and resources as well as special analyses that the reader may require to understand the Program more fully. Section 1 is preceded by details of Spending Authorities from Part 2 of the Estimates and Volume 2 of the Public Accounts. This is to provide continuity with other Estimates documents and to help in assessing the Program`s financial performance over the past year. The format and organization of the document should be regarded as transitional. For the most part the document is organized to be consistent with the program structure approved for the National Energy Board. 16 figs.

Understanding the value of imperfect science from national estimates of bird mortality from window collisions

Science.gov (United States)

Machtans, Craig S.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2014-01-01

The publication of a U.S. estimate of bird–window collisions by Loss et al. is an example of the somewhat contentious approach of using extrapolations to obtain large-scale estimates from small-scale studies. We review the approach by Loss et al. and other authors who have published papers on human-induced avian mortality and describe the drawbacks and advantages to publishing what could be considered imperfect science. The main drawback is the inherent and somewhat unquantifiable bias of using small-scale studies to scale up to a national estimate. The direct benefits include development of new methodologies for creating the estimates, an explicit treatment of known biases with acknowledged uncertainty in the final estimate, and the novel results. Other overarching benefits are that these types of papers are catalysts for improving all aspects of the science of estimates and for policies that must respond to the new information.

Managing Uncertainty in Runoff Estimation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Stormwater Calculator.

Science.gov (United States)

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Stormwater Calculator (NSWC) simplifies the task of estimating runoff through a straightforward simulation process based on the EPA Stormwater Management Model. The NSWC accesses localized climate and soil hydrology data, and opti...

Interactions Between Indirect DC-Voltage Estimation and Circulating Current Controllers of MMC-Based HVDC Transmission Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wickramasinghe, Harith R.; Konstantinou, Georgios; Pou, Josep

2018-01-01

Estimation-based indirect dc-voltage control in MMCs interacts with circulating current control methods. This paper proposes an estimation-based indirect dc-voltage control method for MMC-HVDC systems and analyzes its performance compared to alternative estimations. The interactions between......-state and transient performance is demonstrated using a benchmark MMC-HVDC transmission system, implemented in a real-time digital simulator. The results verify the theoretical evaluations and illustrate the operation and performance of the proposed indirect dc-voltage control method....

Preliminary Upper Estimate of Peak Currents in Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation at Distant Locations From a TMS Coil.

Science.gov (United States)

Makarov, Sergey N; Yanamadala, Janakinadh; Piazza, Matthew W; Helderman, Alex M; Thang, Niang S; Burnham, Edward H; Pascual-Leone, Alvaro

2016-09-01

Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is increasingly used as a diagnostic and therapeutic tool for numerous neuropsychiatric disorders. The use of TMS might cause whole-body exposure to undesired induced currents in patients and TMS operators. The aim of this study is to test and justify a simple analytical model known previously, which may be helpful as an upper estimate of eddy current density at a particular distant observation point for any body composition and any coil setup. We compare the analytical solution with comprehensive adaptive mesh refinement-based FEM simulations of a detailed full-body human model, two coil types, five coil positions, about 100 000 observation points, and two distinct pulse rise times; thus, providing a representative number of different datasets for comparison, while also using other numerical data. Our simulations reveal that, after a certain modification, the analytical model provides an upper estimate for the eddy current density at any location within the body. In particular, it overestimates the peak eddy currents at distant locations from a TMS coil by a factor of 10 on average. The simple analytical model tested in this study may be valuable as a rapid method to safely estimate levels of TMS currents at different locations within a human body. At present, safe limits of general exposure to TMS electric and magnetic fields are an open subject, including fetal exposure for pregnant women.

National Estimates of Emergency Department Visits for Antibiotic Adverse Events Among Adults-United States, 2011-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Geller, Andrew I; Lovegrove, Maribeth C; Shehab, Nadine; Hicks, Lauri A; Sapiano, Mathew R P; Budnitz, Daniel S

2018-04-20

Detailed, nationally representative data describing high-risk populations and circumstances involved in antibiotic adverse events (AEs) can inform approaches to prevention. Describe US burden, rates, and characteristics of emergency department (ED) visits by adults for antibiotic AEs. Nationally representative, public health surveillance of adverse drug events (National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-Cooperative Adverse Drug Event Surveillance [NEISS-CADES]) and a nationally projected database of dispensed prescriptions (QuintilesIMS), 2011-2015. Antibiotic-treated adults (≥ 20 years) seeking ED care. Estimated annual numbers and rates of ED visits for antibiotic AEs among outpatients treated with systemically administered antibiotics. Based on 10,225 cases, US adults aged ≥ 20 years made an estimated 145,490 (95% confidence interval, 115,279-175,701) ED visits for antibiotic AEs each year in 2011-2015. Antibiotics were implicated in 13.7% (12.3-15.2%) of all estimated adult ED visits for adverse drug events. Most (56.6%; 54.8-58.4%) antibiotic AE visits involved adults aged Accounting for prescriptions dispensed from retail and long-term care pharmacies, adults aged 20-34 years had twice the estimated rate of ED visits for oral antibiotic AEs compared with those aged ≥ 65 years (9.7 [7.6-11.8] versus 4.6 [3.6-5.7] visits per 10,000 dispensed prescriptions, respectively). Allergic reactions accounted for three quarters (74.3%; 70.0-78.6%) of estimated ED visits for antibiotic AEs. The three most frequently implicated antibiotic classes in ED visits for antibiotic AEs were oral sulfonamides (23.2%; 20.6-25.8%), penicillins (20.8%; 19.3-22.4%), and quinolones (15.7%; 14.2-17.1%). Per-prescription rates declined with increasing age group. Antibiotics are a common cause of ED visits by adults for adverse drug events and represent an important safety issue. Quantifying risks of AEs from specific antibiotics for specific patient populations, such

Carbon factors and models for forest carbon estimates for the 2005-2011 National Greenhouse Gas Inventories of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath; Coeli M. Hoover

2013-01-01

Most nations have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and are mandated to report National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, including the land use, land use change and forestry sector when it is significant. Participating countries commonly use data from national forest inventories as a basis for their forest-related emissions estimates. The...

Estimation of Synaptic Conductances in Presence of Nonlinear Effects Caused by Subthreshold Ionic Currents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vich, Catalina; Berg, Rune W.; Guillamon, Antoni

2017-01-01

Subthreshold fluctuations in neuronal membrane potential traces contain nonlinear components, and employing nonlinear models might improve the statistical inference. We propose a new strategy to estimate synaptic conductances, which has been tested using in silico data and applied to in vivo...... recordings. The model is constructed to capture the nonlinearities caused by subthreshold activated currents, and the estimation procedure can discern between excitatory and inhibitory conductances using only one membrane potential trace. More precisely, we perform second order approximations of biophysical...... models to capture the subthreshold nonlinearities, resulting in quadratic integrate-and-fire models, and apply approximate maximum likelihood estimation where we only suppose that conductances are stationary in a 50–100 ms time window. The results show an improvement compared to existent procedures...

On the estimation of the current density in space plasmas: Multi- versus single-point techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Perri, Silvia; Valentini, Francesco; Sorriso-Valvo, Luca; Reda, Antonio; Malara, Francesco

2017-06-01

Thanks to multi-spacecraft mission, it has recently been possible to directly estimate the current density in space plasmas, by using magnetic field time series from four satellites flying in a quasi perfect tetrahedron configuration. The technique developed, commonly called ;curlometer; permits a good estimation of the current density when the magnetic field time series vary linearly in space. This approximation is generally valid for small spacecraft separation. The recent space missions Cluster and Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) have provided high resolution measurements with inter-spacecraft separation up to 100 km and 10 km, respectively. The former scale corresponds to the proton gyroradius/ion skin depth in ;typical; solar wind conditions, while the latter to sub-proton scale. However, some works have highlighted an underestimation of the current density via the curlometer technique with respect to the current computed directly from the velocity distribution functions, measured at sub-proton scales resolution with MMS. In this paper we explore the limit of the curlometer technique studying synthetic data sets associated to a cluster of four artificial satellites allowed to fly in a static turbulent field, spanning a wide range of relative separation. This study tries to address the relative importance of measuring plasma moments at very high resolution from a single spacecraft with respect to the multi-spacecraft missions in the current density evaluation.

Longitudinal Single-Bunch Instability in the ILC Damping Rings: Estimate of Current Threshold

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venturini, Marco; Venturini, Marco

2008-01-01

Characterization of single-bunch instabilities in the International Linear Collider (ILC) damping rings (DRs) has been indicated as a high-priority activity toward completion of an engineering design. In this paper we report on a first estimate of the current thresholds for the instability using numerical and analytical models of the wake potentials associated with the various machine components. The numerical models were derived (upon appropriate scaling) from designs of the corresponding components installed in existing machines. The current thresholds for instabilities were determined by numerical solution of the Vlasov equation for the longitudinal dynamics. For the DR baseline lattice as of Feb. 2007 we find the critical current for instability to be safely above the design specifications leaving room for further optimization of the choice of the momentum compaction

Integrating national surveys to estimate small area variations in poor health and limiting long-term illness in Great Britain.

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, Graham; Aitken, Grant; Taylor, Joanna; Twigg, Liz

2017-08-28

This study aims to address, for the first time, the challenges of constructing small area estimates of health status using linked national surveys. The study also seeks to assess the concordance of these small area estimates with data from national censuses. Population level health status in England, Scotland and Wales. A linked integrated dataset of 23 374 survey respondents (16+ years) from the 2011 waves of the Health Survey for England (n=8603), the Scottish Health Survey (n=7537) and the Welsh Health Survey (n=7234). Population prevalence of poorer self-rated health and limiting long-term illness. A multilevel small area estimation modelling approach was used to estimate prevalence of these outcomes for middle super output areas in England and Wales and intermediate zones in Scotland. The estimates were then compared with matched measures from the contemporaneous 2011 UK Census. There was a strong positive association between the small area estimates and matched census measures for all three countries for both poorer self-rated health (r=0.828, 95% CI 0.821 to 0.834) and limiting long-term illness (r=0.831, 95% CI 0.824 to 0.837), although systematic differences were evident, and small area estimation tended to indicate higher prevalences than census data. Despite strong concordance, variations in the small area prevalences of poorer self-rated health and limiting long-term illness evident in census data cannot be replicated perfectly using small area estimation with linked national surveys. This reflects a lack of harmonisation between surveys over question wording and design. The nature of small area estimates as 'expected values' also needs to be better understood. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Estimating the prevalence of infertility in Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Bushnik, Tracey; Cook, Jocelynn L.; Yuzpe, A. Albert; Tough, Suzanne; Collins, John

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Over the past 10 years, there has been a significant increase in the use of assisted reproductive technologies in Canada, however, little is known about the overall prevalence of infertility in the population. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of current infertility in Canada according to three definitions of the risk of conception. METHODS Data from the infertility component of the 2009–2010 Canadian Community Health Survey were analyzed for married and common-law couples with a female partner aged 18–44. The three definitions of the risk of conception were derived sequentially starting with birth control use in the previous 12 months, adding reported sexual intercourse in the previous 12 months, then pregnancy intent. Prevalence and odds ratios of current infertility were estimated by selected characteristics. RESULTS Estimates of the prevalence of current infertility ranged from 11.5% (95% CI 10.2, 12.9) to 15.7% (95% CI 14.2, 17.4). Each estimate represented an increase in current infertility prevalence in Canada when compared with previous national estimates. Couples with lower parity (0 or 1 child) had significantly higher odds of experiencing current infertility when the female partner was aged 35–44 years versus 18–34 years. Lower odds of experiencing current infertility were observed for multiparous couples regardless of age group of the female partner, when compared with nulliparous couples. CONCLUSIONS The present study suggests that the prevalence of current infertility has increased since the last time it was measured in Canada, and is associated with the age of the female partner and parity. PMID:22258658

National, regional, and worldwide estimates of stillbirth rates in 2009 with trends since 1995: a systematic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cousens, Simon; Blencowe, Hannah; Stanton, Cynthia; Chou, Doris; Ahmed, Saifuddin; Steinhardt, Laura; Creanga, Andreea A; Tunçalp, Ozge; Balsara, Zohra Patel; Gupta, Shivam; Say, Lale; Lawn, Joy E

2011-04-16

Stillbirths do not count in routine worldwide data-collating systems or for the Millennium Development Goals. Two sets of national stillbirth estimates for 2000 produced similar worldwide totals of 3·2 million and 3·3 million, but rates differed substantially for some countries. We aimed to develop more reliable estimates and a time series from 1995 for 193 countries, by increasing input data, using recent data, and applying improved modelling approaches. For international comparison, stillbirth is defined as fetal death in the third trimester (≥1000 g birthweight or ≥28 completed weeks of gestation). Several sources of stillbirth data were identified and assessed against prespecified inclusion criteria: vital registration data; nationally representative surveys; and published studies identified through systematic literature searches, unpublished studies, and national data identified through a WHO country consultation process. For 2009, reported rates were used for 33 countries and model-based estimates for 160 countries. A regression model of log stillbirth rate was developed and used to predict national stillbirth rates from 1995 to 2009. Uncertainty ranges were obtained with a bootstrap approach. The final model included log(neonatal mortality rate) (cubic spline), log(low birthweight rate) (cubic spline), log(gross national income purchasing power parity) (cubic spline), region, type of data source, and definition of stillbirth. Vital registration data from 79 countries, 69 nationally representative surveys from 39 countries, and 113 studies from 42 countries met inclusion criteria. The estimated number of global stillbirths was 2·64 million (uncertainty range 2·14 million to 3·82 million) in 2009 compared with 3·03 million (uncertainty range 2·37 million to 4·19 million) in 1995. Worldwide stillbirth rate has declined by 14·5%, from 22·1 stillbirths per 1000 births in 1995 to 18·9 stillbirths per 1000 births in 2009. In 2009, 76·2% of

Current pregnancy among women with spinal cord injury: findings from the US national spinal cord injury database.

Science.gov (United States)

Iezzoni, L I; Chen, Y; McLain, A B J

2015-11-01

Cross-sectional study. To examine the prevalence of pregnancy and associations with sociodemographic and clinical factors among women with spinal cord injury (SCI). US National Spinal Cord Injury Database, an SCI registry that interviews participants 1, 5 and then every 5 years post injury. Data include SCI clinical details, functional impairments, participation measures, depressive symptoms and life satisfaction. Women aged 18-49 are asked about hospitalizations in the last year relating to pregnancy or its complications. Data represent 1907 women, who completed 3054 interviews. We used generalized estimating equations to examine bivariable associations between pregnancy and clinical and psychosocial variables and to perform multivariable regressions predicting pregnancy. Across all women, 2.0% reported pregnancy during the prior 12 months. This annual prevalence differed significantly by the years elapsed since injury; the highest rate occurred 15 years post injury (3.7%). Bivariable analyses found that younger age at injury was significantly associated with current pregnancy (Ppregnancy were significantly more likely to be married or partnered, have sport-related SCI, have higher motor scores and have more positive psychosocial status scores. Multivariable analyses found significant associations between current pregnancy and age, marital status, motor score and mobility and occupation scale scores. Current pregnancy rates among reproductive-aged women with SCI are similar to rates of other US women with chronic mobility impairments. More information is needed about pregnancy experiences and outcomes to inform both women with SCI seeking childbearing and clinicians providing their care.

Estimating the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake from national food balance sheets: effects of methodological assumptions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K Ryan Wessells

Full Text Available The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake in a population can be estimated by comparing the zinc content of the food supply with the population's theoretical requirement for zinc. However, assumptions regarding the nutrient composition of foods, zinc requirements, and zinc absorption may affect prevalence estimates. These analyses were conducted to: (1 evaluate the effect of varying methodological assumptions on country-specific estimates of the prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and (2 generate a model considered to provide the best estimates.National food balance data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Zinc and phytate contents of these foods were estimated from three nutrient composition databases. Zinc absorption was predicted using a mathematical model (Miller equation. Theoretical mean daily per capita physiological and dietary requirements for zinc were calculated using recommendations from the Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine and the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group. The estimated global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake varied between 12-66%, depending on which methodological assumptions were applied. However, country-specific rank order of the estimated prevalence of inadequate intake was conserved across all models (r = 0.57-0.99, P<0.01. A "best-estimate" model, comprised of zinc and phytate data from a composite nutrient database and IZiNCG physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, estimated the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake to be 17.3%.Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in this method, caution must be taken in the interpretation of the estimated prevalence figures. However, the results of all models indicate that inadequate zinc intake may be fairly common globally. Inferences regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem in different countries can be drawn based on the country

A cost-benefit analysis of The National Map

Science.gov (United States)

Halsing, David L.; Theissen, Kevin; Bernknopf, Richard

2003-01-01

The Geography Discipline of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has conducted this cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of The National Map. This analysis is an evaluation of the proposed Geography Discipline initiative to provide the Nation with a mechanism to access current and consistent digital geospatial data. This CBA is a supporting document to accompany the Exhibit 300 Capital Asset Plan and Business Case of The National Map Reengineering Program. The framework for estimating the benefits is based on expected improvements in processing information to perform any of the possible applications of spatial data. This analysis does not attempt to determine the benefits and costs of performing geospatial-data applications. Rather, it estimates the change in the differences between those benefits and costs with The National Map and the current situation without it. The estimates of total costs and benefits of The National Map were based on the projected implementation time, development and maintenance costs, rates of data inclusion and integration, expected usage levels over time, and a benefits estimation model. The National Map provides data that are current, integrated, consistent, complete, and more accessible in order to decrease the cost of implementing spatial-data applications and (or) improve the outcome of those applications. The efficiency gains in per-application improvements are greater than the cost to develop and maintain The National Map, meaning that the program would bring a positive net benefit to the Nation. The average improvement in the net benefit of performing a spatial data application was multiplied by a simulated number of application implementations across the country. The numbers of users, existing applications, and rates of application implementation increase over time as The National Map is developed and accessed by spatial data users around the country. Results from the 'most likely' estimates of model parameters and data inputs indicate that

Estimation of Synaptic Conductances in Presence of Nonlinear Effects Caused by Subthreshold Ionic Currents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catalina Vich

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Subthreshold fluctuations in neuronal membrane potential traces contain nonlinear components, and employing nonlinear models might improve the statistical inference. We propose a new strategy to estimate synaptic conductances, which has been tested using in silico data and applied to in vivo recordings. The model is constructed to capture the nonlinearities caused by subthreshold activated currents, and the estimation procedure can discern between excitatory and inhibitory conductances using only one membrane potential trace. More precisely, we perform second order approximations of biophysical models to capture the subthreshold nonlinearities, resulting in quadratic integrate-and-fire models, and apply approximate maximum likelihood estimation where we only suppose that conductances are stationary in a 50–100 ms time window. The results show an improvement compared to existent procedures for the models tested here.

Attributable causes of cancer in Japan in 2005--systematic assessment to estimate current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, M; Sawada, N; Matsuda, T; Iwasaki, M; Sasazuki, S; Shimazu, T; Shibuya, K; Tsugane, S

2012-05-01

To contribute to evidence-based policy decision making for national cancer control, we conducted a systematic assessment to estimate the current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan in 2005. We first estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of each cancer attributable to known risk factors from relative risks derived primarily from Japanese pooled analyses and large-scale cohort studies and the prevalence of exposure in the period around 1990. Using nationwide vital statistics records and incidence estimates, we then estimated the attributable cancer incidence and mortality in 2005. In 2005, ≈ 55% of cancer among men was attributable to preventable risk factors in Japan. The corresponding figure was lower among women, but preventable risk factors still accounted for nearly 30% of cancer. In men, tobacco smoking had the highest PAF (30% for incidence and 35% for mortality, respectively) followed by infectious agents (23% and 23%). In women, in contrast, infectious agents had the highest PAF (18% and 19% for incidence and mortality, respectively) followed by tobacco smoking (6% and 8%). In Japan, tobacco smoking and infections are major causes of cancer. Further control of these factors will contribute to substantial reductions in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan.

Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age

Science.gov (United States)

Royle, Natalie A.; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C.; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J.; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E.; Deary, Ian J.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.

2013-01-01

Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. PMID:23850342

The Impact of Survey and Response Modes on Current Smoking Prevalence Estimates Using TUS-CPS: 1992-2003

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia Soulakova

2009-12-01

Full Text Available This study identified whether survey administration mode (telephone or in-person and respondent type (self or proxy result in discrepant prevalence of current smoking in the adult U.S. population, while controlling for key sociodemographic characteristics and longitudinal changes of smoking prevalence over the 11-year period from 1992-2003. We used a multiple logistic regression analysis with replicate weights to model the current smoking status logit as a function of a number of covariates. The final model included individual- and family-level sociodemographic characteristics, survey attributes, and multiple two-way interactions of survey mode and respondent type with other covariates. The respondent type is a significant predictor of current smoking prevalence and the magnitude of the difference depends on the age, sex, and education of the person whose smoking status is being reported. Furthermore, the survey mode has significant interactions with survey year, sex, and age. We conclude that using an overall unadjusted estimate of the current smoking prevalence may result in underestimating the current smoking rate when conducting proxy or telephone interviews especially for some sub-populations, such as young adults. We propose that estimates could be improved if more detailed information regarding the respondent type and survey administration mode characteristics were considered in addition to commonly used survey year and sociodemographic characteristics. This information is critical given that future surveillance is moving toward more complex designs. Thus, adjustment of estimates should be contemplated when comparing current smoking prevalence results within a given survey series with major changes in methodology over time and between different surveys using various modes and respondent types.

Regional economic effects of current and proposed management alternatives for Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge

Science.gov (United States)

Koontz, Lynne; Lambert, Heather

2005-01-01

The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan (CCP). The CCP must describe the desired future conditions of a Refuge and provide long range guidance and management direction to achieve Refuge purposes. Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), located 27 miles northeast of Aberdeen, South Dakota, is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the CCP. The CCP for Sand Lake NWR must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed Refuge management strategies.

Electron Bernstein wave-bootstrap current synergy in the National Spherical Torus Experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, R.W.; Taylor, G.

2005-01-01

Current driven by electron Bernstein waves (EBW) and by the electron bootstrap effect are calculated separately and concurrently with a kinetic code to determine the degree of synergy between them. A target β=40% NSTX [M. Ono, S. Kaye, M. Peng et al., Proceedings of the 17th IAEA Fusion Energy Conference, edited by M. Spak (IAEA, Vienna, Austria, 1999), Vol. 3, p. 1135] plasma is examined. A simple bootstrap model in the collisional-quasilinear CQL3D Fokker-Planck code (National Technical Information Service document No. DE93002962) is used in these studies: the transiting electron distributions are connected in velocity space at the trapped-passing boundary to trapped-electron distributions that are displaced radially by a half-banana-width outwards/inwards for the co-passing/counter-passing regions. This model agrees well with standard bootstrap current calculations over the outer 60% of the plasma radius. Relatively small synergy net bootstrap current is obtained for EBW power up to 4 MW. Locally, bootstrap current density increases in proportion to increased plasma pressure, and this effect can significantly affect the radial profile of driven current

Annual national direct and indirect cost estimates of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh; Itria, Alexander; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Sartori, Ana Marli Christovam; Rama, Cristina Helena; de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil. METHODS: This cost description study used a "gross-costing" methodology and adopted the health system and societal perspectives. The estimates were grouped into sets of procedures performed in phases of cervical cancer care: the screening, diagnosis and treatment of precancerous lesions and the treatment of cervical cancer. The costs were estimated for the public and private health systems, using data from national health information systems, population surveys, and literature reviews. The cost estimates are presented in 2006 USD. RESULTS: From the societal perspective, the estimated total costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer amounted to USD $1,321,683,034, which was categorized as follows: procedures (USD $213,199,490), visits (USD $325,509,842), transportation (USD $106,521,537) and productivity losses (USD $676,452,166). Indirect costs represented 51% of the total costs, followed by direct medical costs (visits and procedures) at 41% and direct non-medical costs (transportation) at 8%. The public system represented 46% of the total costs, and the private system represented 54%. CONCLUSION: Our national cost estimates of cervical cancer prevention and treatment, indicating the economic importance of cervical cancer screening and care, will be useful in monitoring the effect of the HPV vaccine introduction and are of interest in research and health care management. PMID:26017797

Estimation of the exchange current density and comparative analysis of morphology of electrochemically produced lead and zinc deposits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolić Nebojša D.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The processes of lead and zinc electrodeposition from the very dilute electrolytes were compared by the analysis of polarization characteristics and by the scanning electron microscopic (SEM analysis of the morphology of the deposits obtained in the galvanostatic regime of electrolysis. The exchange current densities for lead and zinc were estimated by comparison of experimentally obtained polarization curves with the simulated ones obtained for the different the exchange current density to the limiting diffusion current density ratios. Using this way for the estimation of the exchange current density, it is shown that the exchange current density for Pb was more than 1300 times higher than the one for Zn. In this way, it is confirmed that the Pb electrodeposition processes are considerably faster than the Zn electrodeposition processes. The difference in the rate of electrochemical processes was confirmed by a comparison of morphologies of lead and zinc deposits obtained at current densities which corresponded to 0.25 and 0.50 values of the limiting diffusion current densities. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 172046

National Studies as a Component of the World Health Organization Initiative to Estimate the Global and Regional Burden of Foodborne Disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robin J Lake

Full Text Available The World Health Organization (WHO initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases established the Foodborne Diseases Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG in 2007. In addition to global and regional estimates, the initiative sought to promote actions at a national level. This involved capacity building through national foodborne disease burden studies, and encouragement of the use of burden information in setting evidence-informed policies. To address these objectives a FERG Country Studies Task Force was established and has developed a suite of tools and resources to facilitate national burden of foodborne disease studies. This paper describes the process and lessons learned during the conduct of pilot country studies under the WHO FERG initiative.Pilot country studies were initiated in Albania, Japan and Thailand in 2011 and in Uganda in 2012. A brief description of each study is provided. The major scientific issue is a lack of data, particularly in relation to disease etiology, and attribution of disease burden to foodborne transmission. Situation analysis, knowledge translation, and risk communication to achieve evidence-informed policies require specialist expertise and resources.The FERG global and regional burden estimates will greatly enhance the ability of individual countries to fill data gaps and generate national estimates to support efforts to reduce the burden of foodborne disease.

Integral Criticality Estimators in MCATK

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nolen, Steven Douglas [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Adams, Terry R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Sweezy, Jeremy Ed [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2016-06-14

The Monte Carlo Application ToolKit (MCATK) is a component-based software toolset for delivering customized particle transport solutions using the Monte Carlo method. Currently under development in the XCP Monte Carlo group at Los Alamos National Laboratory, the toolkit has the ability to estimate the ke f f and a eigenvalues for static geometries. This paper presents a description of the estimators and variance reduction techniques available in the toolkit and includes a preview of those slated for future releases. Along with the description of the underlying algorithms is a description of the available user inputs for controlling the iterations. The paper concludes with a comparison of the MCATK results with those provided by analytic solutions. The results match within expected statistical uncertainties and demonstrate MCATK’s usefulness in estimating these important quantities.

National Water Model: Providing the Nation with Actionable Water Intelligence

Science.gov (United States)

Aggett, G. R.; Bates, B.

2017-12-01

The National Water Model (NWM) provides national, street-level detail of water movement through time and space. Operating hourly, this flood of information offers enormous benefits in the form of water resource management, natural disaster preparedness, and the protection of life and property. The Geo-Intelligence Division at the NOAA National Water Center supplies forecasters and decision-makers with timely, actionable water intelligence through the processing of billions of NWM data points every hour. These datasets include current streamflow estimates, short and medium range streamflow forecasts, and many other ancillary datasets. The sheer amount of NWM data produced yields a dataset too large to allow for direct human comprehension. As such, it is necessary to undergo model data post-processing, filtering, and data ingestion by visualization web apps that make use of cartographic techniques to bring attention to the areas of highest urgency. This poster illustrates NWM output post-processing and cartographic visualization techniques being developed and employed by the Geo-Intelligence Division at the NOAA National Water Center to provide national actionable water intelligence.

A probabilistic method for the estimation of ocean surface currents from short time series of HF radar data

Science.gov (United States)

Guérin, Charles-Antoine; Grilli, Stéphan T.

2018-01-01

We present a new method for inverting ocean surface currents from beam-forming HF radar data. In contrast with the classical method, which inverts radial currents based on shifts of the main Bragg line in the radar Doppler spectrum, the method works in the temporal domain and inverts currents from the amplitude modulation of the I and Q radar time series. Based on this principle, we propose a Maximum Likelihood approach, which can be combined with a Bayesian inference method assuming a prior current distribution, to infer values of the radial surface currents. We assess the method performance by using synthetic radar signal as well as field data, and systematically comparing results with those of the Doppler method. The new method is found advantageous for its robustness to noise at long range, its ability to accommodate shorter time series, and the possibility to use a priori information to improve the estimates. Limitations are related to current sign errors at far-ranges and biased estimates for small current values and very short samples. We apply the new technique to a data set from a typical 13.5 MHz WERA radar, acquired off of Vancouver Island, BC, and show that it can potentially improve standard synoptic current mapping.

National-scale crop type mapping and area estimation using multi-resolution remote sensing and field survey

Science.gov (United States)

Song, X. P.; Potapov, P.; Adusei, B.; King, L.; Khan, A.; Krylov, A.; Di Bella, C. M.; Pickens, A. H.; Stehman, S. V.; Hansen, M.

2016-12-01

Reliable and timely information on agricultural production is essential for ensuring world food security. Freely available medium-resolution satellite data (e.g. Landsat, Sentinel) offer the possibility of improved global agriculture monitoring. Here we develop and test a method for estimating in-season crop acreage using a probability sample of field visits and producing wall-to-wall crop type maps at national scales. The method is first illustrated for soybean cultivated area in the US for 2015. A stratified, two-stage cluster sampling design was used to collect field data to estimate national soybean area. The field-based estimate employed historical soybean extent maps from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer to delineate and stratify U.S. soybean growing regions. The estimated 2015 U.S. soybean cultivated area based on the field sample was 341,000 km2 with a standard error of 23,000 km2. This result is 1.0% lower than USDA's 2015 June survey estimate and 1.9% higher than USDA's 2016 January estimate. Our area estimate was derived in early September, about 2 months ahead of harvest. To map soybean cover, the Landsat image archive for the year 2015 growing season was processed using an active learning approach. Overall accuracy of the soybean map was 84%. The field-based sample estimated area was then used to calibrate the map such that the soybean acreage of the map derived through pixel counting matched the sample-based area estimate. The strength of the sample-based area estimation lies in the stratified design that takes advantage of the spatially explicit cropland layers to construct the strata. The success of the mapping was built upon an automated system which transforms Landsat images into standardized time-series metrics. The developed method produces reliable and timely information on soybean area in a cost-effective way and could be implemented in an operational mode. The approach has also been applied for other crops in

Regional economic analysis of current and proposed management alternatives for Rappahannock River Valley National Wildlife Refuge

Science.gov (United States)

Koontz, Lynne; Sexton, Natalie; Donovan, Ryan

2009-01-01

The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must describe the desired future conditions of a refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. The Rappahannock River Valley National Wildlife Refuge (refuge) is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan for the refuge must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed refuge management strategies. The purpose of this study was to assess the regional economic implications associated with draft Comprehensive Conservation Plan management strategies. Special interest groups and local residents often criticize a change in refuge management, especially if there is a perceived negative impact to the local economy. Having objective data on economic impacts may show that these fears are overstated. Quite often, the extent of economic benefits a refuge provides to a local community is not fully recognized, yet at the same time the effects of negative changes is overstated. Spending associated with refuge recreational activities, such as wildlife viewing and hunting, can generate considerable tourist activity for surrounding communities. Additionally, refuge personnel typically spend considerable amounts of money purchasing supplies in local stores, repairing equipment and purchasing fuel at the local service stations, and reside and spend their salaries in the local community. For refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan planning, a regional economic assessment provides a means of estimating how current management (no action alternative) and proposed management activities (alternatives) could affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of

Estimation of the yield of poplars in plantations of fast-growing species within current results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Fajman

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Current results are presented of allometric yield estimates of the poplar short rotation coppice. According to a literature review it is obvious that yield estimates, based on measurable quantities of a growing stand, depend not only on the selected tree specie or its clone, but also on the site location. The Jap-105 poplar clone (P. nigra x P. maximowiczii allometric relations were analyzed by regression methods aimed at the creation of the yield estimation methodology at a testing site in Domanínek. Altogether, the twelve polynomial dependences of particular measured quantities approved the high empirical data conformity with the tested regression model (correlation index from 0.9033 to 0.9967. Within the forward stepwise regression, factors were selected, which explain best examined estimates of the total biomass DM; i.e. d.b.h. and stem height. Furthermore, the KESTEMONT’s (1971 mo­del was verified with a satisfying conformity as well. Approving presented yield estimation methods, the presented models will be checked in a large-scale field trial.

How a European network may help with estimating methane emissions on the French national scale

Science.gov (United States)

Pison, Isabelle; Berchet, Antoine; Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; Broquet, Grégoire; Conil, Sébastien; Delmotte, Marc; Ganesan, Anita; Laurent, Olivier; Martin, Damien; O'Doherty, Simon; Ramonet, Michel; Spain, T. Gerard; Vermeulen, Alex; Yver Kwok, Camille

2018-03-01

Methane emissions on the national scale in France in 2012 are inferred by assimilating continuous atmospheric mixing ratio measurements from nine stations of the European network ICOS located in France and surrounding countries. To assess the robustness of the fluxes deduced by our inversion system based on an objectified quantification of uncertainties, two complementary inversion set-ups are computed and analysed: (i) a regional run correcting for the spatial distribution of fluxes in France and (ii) a sectorial run correcting fluxes for activity sectors on the national scale. In addition, our results for the two set-ups are compared with fluxes produced in the framework of the inversion inter-comparison exercise of the InGOS project. The seasonal variability in fluxes is consistent between different set-ups, with maximum emissions in summer, likely due to agricultural activity. However, very high monthly posterior uncertainties (up to ≈ 65 to 74 % in the sectorial run in May and June) make it difficult to attribute maximum emissions to a specific sector. On the yearly and national scales, the two inversions range from 3835 to 4050 Gg CH4 and from 3570 to 4190 Gg CH4 for the regional and sectorial runs, respectively, consistently with the InGOS products. These estimates are 25 to 55 % higher than the total national emissions from bottom-up approaches (biogeochemical models from natural emissions, plus inventories for anthropogenic ones), consistently pointing at missing or underestimated sources in the inventories and/or in natural sources. More specifically, in the sectorial set-up, agricultural emissions are inferred as 66% larger than estimates reported to the UNFCCC. Uncertainties in the total annual national budget are 108 and 312 Gg CH4, i.e, 3 to 8 %, for the regional and sectorial runs respectively, smaller than uncertainties in available bottom-up products, proving the added value of top-down atmospheric inversions. Therefore, even though the surface

How a European network may help with estimating methane emissions on the French national scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Pison

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Methane emissions on the national scale in France in 2012 are inferred by assimilating continuous atmospheric mixing ratio measurements from nine stations of the European network ICOS located in France and surrounding countries. To assess the robustness of the fluxes deduced by our inversion system based on an objectified quantification of uncertainties, two complementary inversion set-ups are computed and analysed: (i a regional run correcting for the spatial distribution of fluxes in France and (ii a sectorial run correcting fluxes for activity sectors on the national scale. In addition, our results for the two set-ups are compared with fluxes produced in the framework of the inversion inter-comparison exercise of the InGOS project. The seasonal variability in fluxes is consistent between different set-ups, with maximum emissions in summer, likely due to agricultural activity. However, very high monthly posterior uncertainties (up to ≈ 65 to 74 % in the sectorial run in May and June make it difficult to attribute maximum emissions to a specific sector. On the yearly and national scales, the two inversions range from 3835 to 4050 Gg CH4 and from 3570 to 4190 Gg CH4 for the regional and sectorial runs, respectively, consistently with the InGOS products. These estimates are 25 to 55 % higher than the total national emissions from bottom-up approaches (biogeochemical models from natural emissions, plus inventories for anthropogenic ones, consistently pointing at missing or underestimated sources in the inventories and/or in natural sources. More specifically, in the sectorial set-up, agricultural emissions are inferred as 66% larger than estimates reported to the UNFCCC. Uncertainties in the total annual national budget are 108 and 312 Gg CH4, i.e, 3 to 8 %, for the regional and sectorial runs respectively, smaller than uncertainties in available bottom-up products, proving the added value of top-down atmospheric

A new generic approach for estimating the concentrations of down-the-drain chemicals at catchment and national scale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, V.D.J. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Hydrological Risks and Resources, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford OX10 8BB (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: vke@ceh.ac.uk; Rees, H.G. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Hydrological Risks and Resources, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford OX10 8BB (United Kingdom); Fox, K.K. [University of Lancaster (United Kingdom); Whelan, M.J. [Unilever Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth (United Kingdom)

2007-07-15

A new generic approach for estimating chemical concentrations in rivers at catchment and national scales is presented. Domestic chemical loads in waste water are estimated using gridded population data. River flows are estimated by combining predicted runoff with topographically derived flow direction. Regional scale exposure is characterised by two summary statistics: PEC{sub works}, the average concentration immediately downstream of emission points, and, PEC{sub area}, the catchment-average chemical concentration. The method was applied to boron at national (England and Wales) and catchment (Aire-Calder) scales. Predicted concentrations were within 50% of measured mean values in the Aire-Calder catchment and in agreement with results from the GREAT-ER model. The concentration grids generated provide a picture of the spatial distribution of expected chemical concentrations at various scales, and can be used to identify areas of potentially high risk. - A new grid-based approach to predict spatially-referenced freshwater concentrations of domestic chemicals.

Estimating social carrying capacity through computer simulation modeling: an application to Arches National Park, Utah

Science.gov (United States)

Benjamin Wang; Robert E. Manning; Steven R. Lawson; William A. Valliere

2001-01-01

Recent research and management experience has led to several frameworks for defining and managing carrying capacity of national parks and related areas. These frameworks rely on monitoring indicator variables to ensure that standards of quality are maintained. The objective of this study was to develop a computer simulation model to estimate the relationships between...

2017 National Park visitor spending effects : Economic contributions to local communities, states, and the Nation

Science.gov (United States)

Cullinane Thomas, Catherine M.; Koontz, Lynne; Cornachione, Egan

2018-01-01

The National Park Service (NPS) manages the Nation’s most iconic destinations that attract millions of visitors from across the Nation and around the world. Trip-related spending by NPS visitors generates and supports a considerable amount of economic activity within park gateway communities. This economic effects analysis measures how NPS visitor spending cycles through local economies, generating business sales and supporting jobs and income. In 2017, the National Park System received an estimated 331 million recreation visits. Visitors to National Parks spent an estimated \\$18.2 billion in local gateway regions (defined as communities within 60 miles of a park). The contribution of this spending to the national economy was 306 thousand jobs, \\$11.9 billion in labor income, \\$20.3 billion in value added, and \\$35.8 billion in economic output. The lodging sector saw the highest direct contributions with \\$5.5 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. The sector with the next greatest direct contributions was the restaurants and bars sector, with \\$3.7 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. Results from the Visitor Spending Effects report series are available online via an interactive tool. Users can view year-by-year trend data and explore current year visitor spending, jobs, labor income, value added, and economic output effects by sector for national, state, and local economies. This interactive tool is available at https://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/vse.htm.

2016 National Park visitor spending effects: Economic contributions to local communities, states, and the Nation

Science.gov (United States)

Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Koontz, Lynne

2017-01-01

The National Park Service (NPS) manages the Nation’s most iconic destinations that attract millions of visitors from across the Nation and around the world. Trip-related spending by NPS visitors generates and supports a considerable amount of economic activity within park gateway communities. This economic effects analysis measures how NPS visitor spending cycles through local economies, generating business sales and supporting jobs and income. In 2016, the National Park System received an estimated 330,971,689 recreation visits. Visitors to National Parks spent an estimated $18.4 billion in local gateway regions (defined as communities within 60 miles of a park). The contribution of this spending to the national economy was 318 thousand jobs, $12.0 billion in labor income, $19.9 billion in value added, and $34.9 billion in economic output. The lodging sector saw the highest direct contributions with $5.7 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. The sector with the next greatest direct contributions was the restaurants and bars sector, with $3.7 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. Results from the Visitor Spending Effects report series are available online via an interactive tool. Users can view year-by-year trend data and explore current year visitor spending, jobs, labor income, value added, and economic output effects by sector for national, state, and local economies. This interactive tool is available at https://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/vse.htm.

A new method for estimating insolation based on PV-module currents in a cluster of stand-alone solar systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nieuwenhout, F; van der Borg, N; van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.; Turkenburg, W.C.

2007-01-01

In order to evaluate the performance of solar home systems (SHSs), data on local insolation is a prerequisite. We present a new method to estimate insolation if direct measurements are unavailable. This method comprises estimation of daily irradiation by correlating photovoltaic (PV) module currents

[SWOT Analysis of the National Survey on Current Status of Major Human Parasitic Diseases in China].

Science.gov (United States)

ZHU, Hui-hui; ZHOU, Chang-hai; CHEN, Ying-dan; ZANG, Wei; XIAO, Ning; ZHOU, Xiao-nong

2015-10-01

The National Survey on Current Status of Major Human Parasitic Diseases in China has been carried out since 2014 under the organization of the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China. The National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (NIPD, China CDC) provided technical support and was responsible for quality control in this survey. This study used SWOT method to analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that were encountered by he NIPD, China CDC during the completion of the survey. Accordingly, working strategies were proposed to facilitate the future field work.

The current contribution of diagnostic radiology to the population dose in Great Britain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wall, B.F.; Rae, S.; Kendall, G.M.; Darby, S.C.; Fischer, E.S.; Harries, S.V.

1980-01-01

The National Radiological Protection Board of the UK has just completed a national survey to determine the genetically significant dose (GSD) to the population of Great Britain from diagnostic radiology. A statistically selected sample of about 80 hospitals spread throughout England, Scotland and Wales has supplied information on the numbers of patients examined in their X-ray departments during a week in June 1977, together with details of age, sex and examination technique. This sample is sufficient to make a reliable estimate of the total diagnostic work-load in all National Health Service Hospitals throughout Great Britain for a year. Gonadal doses from 16 examination types that are likely to be the main contributors to the GSD have been measured on nearly 5000 patients at 20 hospitals throug'out the country using specially developed thermoluminescent dosemeters. These gonadal doses are combined with the examination frequency figures and current values for child expectancy derived from data supplied by tthe registrar general, to estimate the GSD. Those changes in practice which have occurred since the late 1950's which may have influenced the new value for the GSD are discussed, as well as the progress that has been made in estimating population somatic doses from diagnostic radiology using clinical measurements that are currently underway. (H.K.)

The Problem With Estimating Public Health Spending.

Science.gov (United States)

Leider, Jonathon P

2016-01-01

Accurate information on how much the United States spends on public health is critical. These estimates affect planning efforts; reflect the value society places on the public health enterprise; and allows for the demonstration of cost-effectiveness of programs, policies, and services aimed at increasing population health. Yet, at present, there are a limited number of sources of systematic public health finance data. Each of these sources is collected in different ways, for different reasons, and so yields strikingly different results. This article aims to compare and contrast all 4 current national public health finance data sets, including data compiled by Trust for America's Health, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO), the National Association of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO), and the Census, which underlie the oft-cited National Health Expenditure Account estimates of public health activity. In FY2008, ASTHO estimates that state health agencies spent $24 billion ($94 per capita on average, median $79), while the Census estimated all state governmental agencies including state health agencies spent $60 billion on public health ($200 per capita on average, median $166). Census public health data suggest that local governments spent an average of $87 per capita (median $57), whereas NACCHO estimates that reporting LHDs spent $64 per capita on average (median $36) in FY2008. We conclude that these estimates differ because the various organizations collect data using different means, data definitions, and inclusion/exclusion criteria--most notably around whether to include spending by all agencies versus a state/local health department, and whether behavioral health, disability, and some clinical care spending are included in estimates. Alongside deeper analysis of presently underutilized Census administrative data, we see harmonization efforts and the creation of a standardized expenditure reporting system as a way to

TREEDE, Point Fluxes and Currents Based on Track Rotation Estimator by Monte-Carlo Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dubi, A.

1985-01-01

1 - Description of problem or function: TREEDE is a Monte Carlo transport code based on the Track Rotation estimator, used, in general, to calculate fluxes and currents at a point. This code served as a test code in the development of the concept of the Track Rotation estimator, and therefore analogue Monte Carlo is used (i.e. no importance biasing). 2 - Method of solution: The basic idea is to follow the particle's track in the medium and then to rotate it such that it passes through the detector point. That is, rotational symmetry considerations (even in non-spherically symmetric configurations) are applied to every history, so that a very large fraction of the track histories can be rotated and made to pass through the point of interest; in this manner the 1/r 2 singularity in the un-collided flux estimator (next event estimator) is avoided. TREEDE, being a test code, is used to estimate leakage or in-medium fluxes at given points in a 3-dimensional finite box, where the source is an isotropic point source at the centre of the z = 0 surface. However, many of the constraints of geometry and source can be easily removed. The medium is assumed homogeneous with isotropic scattering, and one energy group only is considered. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: One energy group, a homogeneous medium, isotropic scattering

An estimate of the veteran population in England: based on data from the 2007 Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodhead, Charlotte; Sloggett, Andy; Bray, Issy; Bradbury, Jason; McManus, Sally; Meltzer, Howard; Brugha, Terry; Jenkins, Rachel; Greenberg, Neil; Wessely, Simon; Fear, Nicola

2009-01-01

The health and well-being of military veterans has recently generated much media and political interest. Estimating the current and future size of the veteran population is important to the planning and allocation of veteran support services. Data from a 2007 nationally representative residential survey of England (the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey) were extrapolated to the whole population to estimate the number of veterans currently residing in private households in England. This population was projected forward in two ten-year blocks up to 2027 using a current life table. It was estimated that in 2007, 3,771,534 (95% CI: 2,986,315-4,910,205) veterans were living in residential households in England. By 2027, this figure was predicted to decline by 50.4 per cent, mainly due to large reductions in the number of veterans in the older age groups (65-74 and 75+ years). Approximately three to five million veterans are currently estimated to be living in the community in England. As the proportion of National Service veterans reduces with time, the veteran population is expected to halve over the next 20 years.

Spatially disaggregated population estimates in the absence of national population and housing census data

Science.gov (United States)

Wardrop, N. A.; Jochem, W. C.; Bird, T. J.; Chamberlain, H. R.; Clarke, D.; Kerr, D.; Bengtsson, L.; Juran, S.; Seaman, V.; Tatem, A. J.

2018-01-01

Population numbers at local levels are fundamental data for many applications, including the delivery and planning of services, election preparation, and response to disasters. In resource-poor settings, recent and reliable demographic data at subnational scales can often be lacking. National population and housing census data can be outdated, inaccurate, or missing key groups or areas, while registry data are generally lacking or incomplete. Moreover, at local scales accurate boundary data are often limited, and high rates of migration and urban growth make existing data quickly outdated. Here we review past and ongoing work aimed at producing spatially disaggregated local-scale population estimates, and discuss how new technologies are now enabling robust and cost-effective solutions. Recent advances in the availability of detailed satellite imagery, geopositioning tools for field surveys, statistical methods, and computational power are enabling the development and application of approaches that can estimate population distributions at fine spatial scales across entire countries in the absence of census data. We outline the potential of such approaches as well as their limitations, emphasizing the political and operational hurdles for acceptance and sustainable implementation of new approaches, and the continued importance of traditional sources of national statistical data. PMID:29555739

Sliding Mode Observer-Based Current Sensor Fault Reconstruction and Unknown Load Disturbance Estimation for PMSM Driven System.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Kaihui; Li, Peng; Zhang, Changfan; Li, Xiangfei; He, Jing; Lin, Yuliang

2017-12-06

This paper proposes a new scheme of reconstructing current sensor faults and estimating unknown load disturbance for a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM)-driven system. First, the original PMSM system is transformed into two subsystems; the first subsystem has unknown system load disturbances, which are unrelated to sensor faults, and the second subsystem has sensor faults, but is free from unknown load disturbances. Introducing a new state variable, the augmented subsystem that has sensor faults can be transformed into having actuator faults. Second, two sliding mode observers (SMOs) are designed: the unknown load disturbance is estimated by the first SMO in the subsystem, which has unknown load disturbance, and the sensor faults can be reconstructed using the second SMO in the augmented subsystem, which has sensor faults. The gains of the proposed SMOs and their stability analysis are developed via the solution of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed scheme was verified by simulations and experiments. The results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can reconstruct current sensor faults and estimate unknown load disturbance for the PMSM-driven system.

National health inequality monitoring: current challenges and opportunities.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosseinpoor, Ahmad Reza; Bergen, Nicole; Schlotheuber, Anne; Boerma, Ties

National health inequality monitoring needs considerably more investment to realize equity-oriented health improvements in countries, including advancement towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Following an overview of national health inequality monitoring and the associated resource requirements, we highlight challenges that countries may encounter when setting up, expanding or strengthening national health inequality monitoring systems, and discuss opportunities and key initiatives that aim to address these challenges. We provide specific proposals on what is needed to ensure that national health inequality monitoring systems are harnessed to guide the reduction of health inequalities.

Glass Property Models and Constraints for Estimating the Glass to be Produced at Hanford by Implementing Current Advanced Glass Formulation Efforts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vienna, John D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kim, Dong-Sang [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Skorski, Daniel C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Matyas, Josef [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2013-07-01

Recent glass formulation and melter testing data have suggested that significant increases in waste loading in HLW and LAW glasses are possible over current system planning estimates. The data (although limited in some cases) were evaluated to determine a set of constraints and models that could be used to estimate the maximum loading of specific waste compositions in glass. It is recommended that these models and constraints be used to estimate the likely HLW and LAW glass volumes that would result if the current glass formulation studies are successfully completed. It is recognized that some of the models are preliminary in nature and will change in the coming years. Plus the models do not currently address the prediction uncertainties that would be needed before they could be used in plant operations. The models and constraints are only meant to give an indication of rough glass volumes and are not intended to be used in plant operation or waste form qualification activities. A current research program is in place to develop the data, models, and uncertainty descriptions for that purpose. A fundamental tenet underlying the research reported in this document is to try to be less conservative than previous studies when developing constraints for estimating the glass to be produced by implementing current advanced glass formulation efforts. The less conservative approach documented herein should allow for the estimate of glass masses that may be realized if the current efforts in advanced glass formulations are completed over the coming years and are as successful as early indications suggest they may be. Because of this approach there is an unquantifiable uncertainty in the ultimate glass volume projections due to model prediction uncertainties that has to be considered along with other system uncertainties such as waste compositions and amounts to be immobilized, split factors between LAW and HLW, etc.

Algorithmic decision rules for estimating growth, removals, and mortality within a national-scale forest inventory (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

William H. McWilliams; Carol L. Alerich; William A. Bechtold; Mark Hansen; Christopher M. Oswalt; Mike Thompson; Jeff Turner

2012-01-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program maintains the National Information Management System (NIMS) that provides the computational framework for the annual forest inventory of the United States. Questions regarding the impact of key elements of programming logic, processing criteria, and estimation procedures...

Current and projected prevalence of arterial hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa by sex, age and habitat: an estimate from population studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Twagirumukiza, Marc; De Bacquer, Dirk; Kips, Jan G; de Backer, Guy; Stichele, Robert Vander; Van Bortel, Luc M

2011-07-01

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), data on hypertension prevalence in terms of urban or rural and sex difference are lacking, heterogeneous or contradictory. In addition, there are no accurate estimates of hypertension burden. To estimate the age-specific and sex-specific prevalence of arterial hypertension in SSA in urban and rural adult populations. We searched for population studies, conducted from 1998 through 2008 in SSA. We extracted data from selected studies on available prevalences and used a logistic regression model to estimate all age/sex/habitat (urban/rural)/country-specific prevalences for SSA up to 2008 and 2025. On the basis of the United Nations Population Fund data for 2008 and predictions for 2025, we estimated the number of hypertensives in both years. Seventeen studies pertaining to 11 countries were analysed. The overall prevalence rate of hypertension in SSA for 2008 was estimated at 16.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.1-20.3], ranging from 10.6% in Ethiopia to 26.9% in Ghana. The estimated prevalence was 13.7% in rural areas, 20.7% in urban areas, 16.8% in males, and 15.7% in women. The total number of hypertensives in SSA was estimated at 75 million (95% CI 65-93 million) in 2008 and at 125.5 million (95% CI 111.0-162.9 million) by 2025. The estimated number of hypertensives in 2008 is nearly four times higher than the last (2005) estimate of the World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Prevalences were significantly higher in urban than in rural populations. Population data are lacking in many countries underlining the need for national surveys.

Cost estimate of grouting the proposed test pits at Idaho National Engineering Laboratory using the ORNL-recommended grouts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spence, R.D.

1987-08-01

EG and G Idaho will construct three experimental pits to simulate the TRU waste trenches at Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Two of these pits will be grouted and then one will be destructively examined as soon as the grout cures and the other will be monitored for 10 years. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is evaluating grouts and will recommend a grout to EG and G Idaho to reduce the permeability of the pit, fill the large voids, and encapsulate the waste. A previous ORNL report (ORNL/TM-9881) discusses the grouts evaluated and the grout recommended based on those evaluations. This report evaluates the economics of grouting the experimental pits. The cost of double grouting two of the EG and G Idaho design pits at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory using lance injection was estimated to be $100,000. Jet grouting the same two pits was estimated to cost $85,000. Both should be tried as part of the test EG and G Idaho is conducting

Current practice of antiplatelet and anticoagulation management in post-cardiac surgery patients: a national audit.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosmane, Sharath; Birla, Rashmi; Marchbank, Adrian

2012-04-01

The Audit and Guidelines Committee of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery recently published a guideline on antiplatelet and anticoagulation management in cardiac surgery. We aimed to assess the awareness of the current guideline and adherence to it in the National Health Service through this National Audit. We designed a questionnaire consisting of nine questions covering various aspects of antiplatelet and anticoagulation management in post-cardiac surgery patients. A telephonic survey of the on-call cardiothoracic registrars in all the cardiothoracic centres across the UK was performed. All 37 National Health Service hospitals in the UK with 242 consultants providing adult cardiac surgical service were contacted. Twenty (54%) hospitals had a unit protocol for antiplatelet and anticoagulation management in post-cardiac surgery. Only 23 (62.2%) registrars were aware of current European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery guidelines. Antiplatelet therapy is variable in the cardiac surgical units across the country. Low-dose aspirin is commonly used despite the recommendation of 150-300 mg. The loading dose of aspirin within 24 h as recommended by the guideline is followed only by 60.7% of surgeons. There was not much deviation from the guideline with respect to the anticoagulation therapy.

A study on the national safeguards system -Current status and suggested development-

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Wan Su; Kwack, Eun Ho; An, Jong Sung; Kim, Hyun Tae; Min, Kyung Sik; Park, Chan Sik

1995-03-01

In Korea, 17 nuclear facilities are currently under IAEA's safeguards and it is expected that more than 25 nuclear facilities will be under IAEA's safeguards in the year 2000 according to nuclear R and D and industry expansion. In connection with unlimited extension of NPT in 1995 and IAEA's measures to strengthen the safeguards like 'Programme 93+2', the international non-proliferation regime will be strengthened more and nuclear advanced countries will require the transparency and credibility of nuclear activities in recipient countries instead of transferring advanced nuclear technologies and nuclear material. In 1995, the Korean government had revised the Atomic Energy Law to control increasing nuclear facilities and nuclear material effectively and to establish international transparency and credibility. In the revised Atomic Energy Law, it is provided that the national inspection, other than IAEA inspection, will be started from 1996. Currently, necessary arrangements for national inspection are being prepared by MOST and TCNC at KAERI. However, the safeguards system in Korea is still beginning stage, Korea's safeguards activity was passive and fragmentary that leads non-attainment of safeguards goal in many facilities. The reasons were; absence of systematic safeguards system (SSAC); lack of understanding safeguards concepts; lack of manpower, designated organization for safeguards, etc. As Korea ranked world top 10 nuclear power generation country and has a plan to be a nuclear advanced country, Korea should have appropriate safeguards system and should not spare necessary assistance to that system. 14 tabs., 15 figs., 29 refs. (Author)

Characterization of the plasma current quench during disruptions in the National Spherical Torus Experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerhardt, S.P.; Menard, J.E.

2008-01-01

A detailed analysis of the plasma current quench in the National Spherical Torus Experiment (M.Ono, et al Nuclear Fusion 40, 557 (2000)) is presented. The fastest current quenches are fit better by a linear waveform than an exponential one. Area-normalized current quench times down to .4 msec/m2 have been observed, compared to the minimum of 1.7 msec/m2 recommendation based on conventional aspect ratio tokamaks; as noted in previous ITPA studies, the difference can be explained by the reduced self-inductance at low aspect ratio and high-elongation. The maximum instantaneous dIp/dt is often many times larger than the mean quench rate, and the plasma current before the disruption is often substantially less than the flat-top value. The poloidal field time-derivative during the disruption, which is directly responsible for driving eddy currents, has been recorded at various locations around the vessel. The Ip quench rate, plasma motion, and magnetic geometry all play important roles in determining the rate of poloidal field change

Current Reactor Physics Benchmark Activities at the Idaho National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bess, John D.; Marshall, Margaret A.; Gorham, Mackenzie L.; Christensen, Joseph; Turnbull, James C.; Clark, Kim

2011-01-01

The International Reactor Physics Experiment Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) (1) and the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) (2) were established to preserve integral reactor physics and criticality experiment data for present and future research. These valuable assets provide the basis for recording, developing, and validating our integral nuclear data, and experimental and computational methods. These projects are managed through the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Staff and students at the Department of Energy - Idaho (DOE-ID) and INL are engaged in the development of benchmarks to support ongoing research activities. These benchmarks include reactors or assemblies that support Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) research, space nuclear Fission Surface Power System (FSPS) design validation, and currently operational facilities in Southeastern Idaho.

Estimation of Operating Condition of Appliances Using Circuit Current Data on Electric Distribution Boards

Science.gov (United States)

Iwafune, Yumiko; Ogimoto, Kazuhiko; Yagita, Yoshie

The Energy management systems (EMS) on demand sides are expected as a method to enhance the capability of supply and demand balancing of a power system under the anticipated penetration of renewable energy generation such as Photovoltaics (PV). Elucidation of energy consumption structure in a building is one of important elements for realization of EMS and contributes to the extraction of potential energy saving. In this paper, we propose the estimation method of operating condition of household appliances using circuit current data on an electric distribution board. Circuit current data are broken down by their shape using a self-organization map method and aggregated by appliance based on customers' information of appliance possessed. Proposed method is verified using residential energy consumption measurement survey data.

Estimation of the potential efficiency of a multijunction solar cell at a limit balance of photogenerated currents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mintairov, M. A., E-mail: mamint@mail.ioffe.ru; Evstropov, V. V.; Mintairov, S. A.; Shvarts, M. Z.; Timoshina, N. Kh.; Kalyuzhnyy, N. A. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute (Russian Federation)

2015-05-15

A method is proposed for estimating the potential efficiency which can be achieved in an initially unbalanced multijunction solar cell by the mutual convergence of photogenerated currents: to extract this current from a relatively narrow band-gap cell and to add it to a relatively wide-gap cell. It is already known that the properties facilitating relative convergence are inherent to such objects as bound excitons, quantum dots, donor-acceptor pairs, and others located in relatively wide-gap cells. In fact, the proposed method is reduced to the problem of obtaining such a required light current-voltage (I–V) characteristic which corresponds to the equality of all photogenerated short-circuit currents. Two methods for obtaining the required light I–V characteristic are used. The first one is selection of the spectral composition of the radiation incident on the multijunction solar cell from an illuminator. The second method is a double shift of the dark I–V characteristic: a current shift J{sub g} (common set photogenerated current) and a voltage shift (−J{sub g}R{sub s}), where R{sub s} is the series resistance. For the light and dark I–V characteristics, a general analytical expression is derived, which considers the effect of so-called luminescence coupling in multijunction solar cells. The experimental I–V characteristics are compared with the calculated ones for a three-junction InGaP/GaAs/Ge solar cell with R{sub s} = 0.019 Ω cm{sup 2} and a maximum factual efficiency of 36.9%. Its maximum potential efficiency is estimated as 41.2%.

Recent Trends in Veteran Unemployment as Measured in the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Savych, Bogdan; Klerman, Jacob A; Loughran, David S

2008-01-01

This technical report explores recent trends in the unemployment of recent veterans as estimated from two nationally representative surveys, the Current Population Survey "CPS" and the American Community Survey "ACS...

Using TPO data to estimate timber demand in support of planning on the Tongass National Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Jean M. Daniels; Michael D. Paruszkiewicz; Susan J. Alexander

2015-01-01

Projections of Alaska timber products output, the derived demand for logs, lumber, residues, and niche products, and timber harvest by owner are developed by using a trend-based analysis. This is the fifth such analysis performed since 1990 to assist planners in meeting statutory requirements for estimating planning cycle demand for timber from the Tongass National...

2011-12 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:12). Price Estimates for Attending Postsecondary Education Institutions. First Look. NCES 2014-166

Science.gov (United States)

Simone, Sean; Radwin, David; Wine, Jennifer; Siegel, Peter; Bryan, Michael

2013-01-01

This First Look publication provides price estimates for attending postsecondary education institutions using data from the 2011-12 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:12), the most comprehensive, nationally representative survey of student financing of postsecondary education in the United States. The survey includes about 95,000…

National Estimate of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance (PFAS) Release to U.S. Municipal Landfill Leachate.

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, Johnsie R; Allred, B McKay; Field, Jennifer A; Levis, James W; Barlaz, Morton A

2017-02-21

Landfills are the final stage in the life cycle of many products containing per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and their presence has been reported in landfill leachate. The concentrations of 70 PFASs in 95 samples of leachate were measured in a survey of U.S. landfills of varying climates and waste ages. National release of PFASs was estimated by coupling measured concentrations for the 19 PFASs where more than 50% of samples had quantifiable concentrations, with climate-specific estimates of annual leachate volumes. For 2013, the total volume of leachate generated in the U.S. was estimated to be 61.1 million m 3 , with 79% of this volume coming from landfills in wet climates (>75 cm/yr precipitation) that contain 47% of U.S. solid waste. The mass of measured PFASs from U.S. landfill leachate to wastewater treatment plants was estimated to be between 563 and 638 kg for 2013. In the majority of landfill leachate samples, 5:3 fluorotelomer carboxylic acid (FTCA) was dominant and variations in concentrations with waste age affected total estimated mass. There were six PFASs that demonstrated significantly higher concentrations in leachate from younger waste compared to older waste and six PFAS demonstrated significant variation with climate.

Effect size estimates: current use, calculations, and interpretation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fritz, Catherine O; Morris, Peter E; Richler, Jennifer J

2012-02-01

The Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association (American Psychological Association, 2001, American Psychological Association, 2010) calls for the reporting of effect sizes and their confidence intervals. Estimates of effect size are useful for determining the practical or theoretical importance of an effect, the relative contributions of factors, and the power of an analysis. We surveyed articles published in 2009 and 2010 in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, noting the statistical analyses reported and the associated reporting of effect size estimates. Effect sizes were reported for fewer than half of the analyses; no article reported a confidence interval for an effect size. The most often reported analysis was analysis of variance, and almost half of these reports were not accompanied by effect sizes. Partial η2 was the most commonly reported effect size estimate for analysis of variance. For t tests, 2/3 of the articles did not report an associated effect size estimate; Cohen's d was the most often reported. We provide a straightforward guide to understanding, selecting, calculating, and interpreting effect sizes for many types of data and to methods for calculating effect size confidence intervals and power analysis.

Prospective estimation of organ dose in CT under tube current modulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W. Paul; Frush, Donald P.; Samei, Ehsan

2015-01-01

Purpose: Computed tomography (CT) has been widely used worldwide as a tool for medical diagnosis and imaging. However, despite its significant clinical benefits, CT radiation dose at the population level has become a subject of public attention and concern. In this light, optimizing radiation dose has become a core responsibility for the CT community. As a fundamental step to manage and optimize dose, it may be beneficial to have accurate and prospective knowledge about the radiation dose for an individual patient. In this study, the authors developed a framework to prospectively estimate organ dose for chest and abdominopelvic CT exams under tube current modulation (TCM). Methods: The organ dose is mainly dependent on two key factors: patient anatomy and irradiation field. A prediction process was developed to accurately model both factors. To model the anatomical diversity and complexity in the patient population, the authors used a previously developed library of computational phantoms with broad distributions of sizes, ages, and genders. A selected clinical patient, represented by a computational phantom in the study, was optimally matched with another computational phantom in the library to obtain a representation of the patient’s anatomy. To model the irradiation field, a previously validated Monte Carlo program was used to model CT scanner systems. The tube current profiles were modeled using a ray-tracing program as previously reported that theoretically emulated the variability of modulation profiles from major CT machine manufacturers Li et al., [Phys. Med. Biol. 59, 4525–4548 (2014)]. The prediction of organ dose was achieved using the following process: (1) CTDI vol -normalized-organ dose coefficients (h organ ) for fixed tube current were first estimated as the prediction basis for the computational phantoms; (2) each computation phantom, regarded as a clinical patient, was optimally matched with one computational phantom in the library; (3) to

Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce.

Science.gov (United States)

Dall, Timothy M; Storm, Michael V; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Drogan, Oksana; Keran, Christopher M; Donofrio, Peter D; Henderson, Victor W; Kaminski, Henry J; Stevens, James C; Vidic, Thomas R

2013-07-30

This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.

National Levee Database, series information for the current inventory of the Nation's levees.

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Geographic Data Committee — The National Levee Database is authoritative database that describes the location and condition of the Nation’s levees. The database contains 21 feature classes...

Chlamydia sequelae cost estimates used in current economic evaluations: does one-size-fit-all?

Science.gov (United States)

Ong, Koh Jun; Soldan, Kate; Jit, Mark; Dunbar, J Kevin; Woodhall, Sarah C

2017-02-01

Current evidence suggests that chlamydia screening programmes can be cost-effective, conditional on assumptions within mathematical models. We explored differences in cost estimates used in published economic evaluations of chlamydia screening from seven countries (four papers each from UK and the Netherlands, two each from Sweden and Australia, and one each from Ireland, Canada and Denmark). From these studies, we extracted management cost estimates for seven major chlamydia sequelae. In order to compare the influence of different sequelae considered in each paper and their corresponding management costs on the total cost per case of untreated chlamydia, we applied reported unit sequelae management costs considered in each paper to a set of untreated infection to sequela progression probabilities. All costs were adjusted to 2013/2014 Great British Pound (GBP) values. Sequelae management costs ranged from £171 to £3635 (pelvic inflammatory disease); £953 to £3615 (ectopic pregnancy); £546 to £6752 (tubal factor infertility); £159 to £3341 (chronic pelvic pain); £22 to £1008 (epididymitis); £11 to £1459 (neonatal conjunctivitis) and £433 to £3992 (neonatal pneumonia). Total cost of sequelae per case of untreated chlamydia ranged from £37 to £412. There was substantial variation in cost per case of chlamydia sequelae used in published chlamydia screening economic evaluations, which likely arose from different assumptions about disease management pathways and the country perspectives taken. In light of this, when interpreting these studies, the reader should be satisfied that the cost estimates used sufficiently reflect the perspective taken and current disease management for their respective context. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Estimation of Leaf Area Index (LAI) Through the Acquisition of Ground Truth Data in Yosemite National Park

Science.gov (United States)

Basson, G.; Hawk, A.; Lue, E.; Ottman, D.; Schiffman, B.; Ghosh, M.; Melton, F.; Schmidt, C.; Skiles, J.

2007-12-01

Leaf area index (LAI) is an important indicator of ecosystem health. Remote sensing offers the only feasible method of estimating LAI at global and regional scales. Land managers can efficiently monitor changes in vegetation by using NASA data products such as the MODIS LAI 1km product. To increase confidence in use of the MODIS LAI product in Yosemite National Park, we investigated the accuracy of remotely sensed LAI data and created LAI maps using three optical in-situ instruments: the LAI-2000 instrument, digital hemispheric photography (DHP), and the Tracing Radiation and Architecture of Canopies (TRAC) instrument. We compared our in-situ data with three spectral vegetation indices derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery: Reduced Simple Ratio (RSR), Simple Ratio (SR), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to produce models which created LAI maps at 30m and 1km resolution. The strongest correlations occurred between DHP LAI values and RSR. Pixel values from the 1km LAI map were then compared to pixel values from a MODIS LAI map. A strong correlation exists between our in-situ data and MODIS LAI values which confirms its accuracy for use by the National Park Service as a decision support tool in Yosemite. The MODIS LAI product is particularly useful because of its high temporal resolution of 1-2 days and can be used to monitor current and future vegetation changes. The model created using the in-situ data can also be applied to Landsat data to provide thirty years of historical LAI values.

78 FR 50481 - Request for Public Comments Regarding the National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-19

... barriers to U.S. exports of goods, services, and U.S. foreign direct investment for inclusion in the NTE... affecting U.S. exports of goods and services, U.S. foreign direct investment, and protection of intellectual... National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers AGENCY: Office of the United States Trade...

Modeling Estimated Personnel Needs for a Potential Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simmons, K; Hullinger, P

2008-01-29

Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed livestock that was last detected in the United States (US) in 1929. The prevalence of FMD in other countries, as well as the current potential for this virus to be used as a form of agroterrorism, has made preparations for a potential FMD outbreak a national priority. To assist in the evaluation of national preparedness, all 50 states were surveyed via e-mail, telephone and web search to obtain emergency response plans for FMD or for foreign animal diseases in general. Information from 33 states was obtained and analyzed for estimates of personnel resources needed to respond to an outbreak. These estimates were consolidated and enhanced to create a tool that could be used by individual states to better understand the personnel that would be needed to complete various tasks over time during an outbreak response. The estimates were then coupled, post-processing, to the output from FMD outbreaks simulated in California using the Multiscale Epidemiological/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) model at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to estimate the personnel resource demands, by task, over the course of an outbreak response.

Estimates of emergency operating capacity in US manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Belzer, D.B. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)); Serot, D.E. (D/E/S Research, Richland, WA (USA)); Kellogg, M.A. (ERCE, Inc., Portland, OR (USA))

1991-03-01

Development of integrated mobilization preparedness policies requires planning estimates of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. Such estimates must be developed in a manner that allows evaluation of current trends in capacity and the consideration of uncertainties in various data inputs and in engineering assumptions. This study, conducted by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), developed estimates of emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 446 manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level of aggregation and for 24 key non-manufacturing sectors. This volume presents tabular and graphical results of the historical analysis and projections for each SIC industry. (JF)

Variance of discharge estimates sampled using acoustic Doppler current profilers from moving boats

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Carlos M.; Tarrab, Leticia; Oberg, Kevin; Szupiany, Ricardo; Cantero, Mariano I.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a model for quantifying the random errors (i.e., variance) of acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) discharge measurements from moving boats for different sampling times. The model focuses on the random processes in the sampled flow field and has been developed using statistical methods currently available for uncertainty analysis of velocity time series. Analysis of field data collected using ADCP from moving boats from three natural rivers of varying sizes and flow conditions shows that, even though the estimate of the integral time scale of the actual turbulent flow field is larger than the sampling interval, the integral time scale of the sampled flow field is on the order of the sampling interval. Thus, an equation for computing the variance error in discharge measurements associated with different sampling times, assuming uncorrelated flow fields is appropriate. The approach is used to help define optimal sampling strategies by choosing the exposure time required for ADCPs to accurately measure flow discharge.

National survey on the current status of salvage radiotherapy on holidays by the JASTRO committee for future scope

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagata, Yasushi; Ashino, Yasuo

2002-01-01

Recently, the impact of the overall treatment time on local tumor control has been reported by several authors. However, we in Japan have a long radiotherapy break because of the two large national holiday seasons in April-May and December-January. Therefore, a national survey on the current status of salvage radiotherapy on holidays was performed in 2001. Fifty-three % of the all institutes performed salvage radiotherapy on holidays. However, there are several problems to be solved, and a national consensus and an authorized proposal by the JASTRO are waited. (author)

National High School Graduation Rate: Are Recent Birth Cohorts Taking More Time to Graduate?

Science.gov (United States)

Joo, Myungkook; Kim, Jeounghee

2016-01-01

Debates about the national high school graduation rate have heated up as various national high school graduation estimates based on the Common Core of Data (CCD) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) do not coincide with one another partially due to different assumptions about graduation age. This study found that (a) while graduation rate by…

Violence and Drug Use in Rural Teens: National Prevalence Estimates from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Andrew O.; Mink, Michael D.; Harun, Nusrat; Moore, Charity G.; Martin, Amy B.; Bennett, Kevin J.

2008-01-01

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare national estimates of drug use and exposure to violence between rural and urban teens. Methods: Twenty-eight dependent variables from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey were used to compare violent activities, victimization, suicidal behavior, tobacco use, alcohol use, and illegal drug use…

Estimation of plasma ion saturation current and reduced tip arcing using Langmuir probe harmonics.

Science.gov (United States)

Boedo, J A; Rudakov, D L

2017-03-01

We present a method to calculate the ion saturation current, I sat , for Langmuir probes at high frequency (>100 kHz) using the harmonics technique and we compare that to a direct measurement of I sat . It is noted that the I sat estimation can be made directly by the ratio of harmonic amplitudes, without explicitly calculating T e . We also demonstrate that since the probe tips using the harmonic method are oscillating near the floating potential, drawing little power, this method reduces tip heating and arcing and allows plasma density measurements at a plasma power flux that would cause continuously biased tips to arc. A multi-probe array is used, with two spatially separated tips employing the harmonics technique and measuring the amplitude of at least two harmonics per tip. A third tip, located between the other two, measures the ion saturation current directly. We compare the measured and calculated ion saturation currents for a variety of plasma conditions and demonstrate the validity of the technique and its use in reducing arcs.

Estimating national water use associated with unconventional oil and gas development

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, Janet M.; Macek-Rowland, Kathleen M.; Thamke, Joanna N.; Delzer, Gregory C.

2016-05-18

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Water Availability and Use Science Program (WAUSP) goals are to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States and assist in the determination of the quantity and quality of water that is available for beneficial uses. These assessments would identify long-term trends or changes in water availability since the 1950s in the United States and help to develop the basis for an improved ability to forecast water avail- ability for future economic, energy-production, and environmental uses. The National Water Census (http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus/), a research program of the WAUSP, supports studies to develop new water accounting tools and assess water availability at the regional and national scales. Studies supported by this program target focus areas with identified water availability concerns and topical science themes related to the use of water within a specific type of environmental setting. The topical study described in this fact sheet will focus on understanding the relation between production of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) for energy and the water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development. This relation applies to the life-cycle of renewable and nonrenewable forms of UOG energy and includes extraction, production, refinement, delivery, and disposal of waste byproducts. Water-use data and models derived from this topical study will be applied to other similar oil and gas plays within the United States to help resource managers assess and account for water used or needed in these areas. Additionally, the results from this topical study will be used to further refine the methods used in compiling water-use data for selected categories (for example, mining, domestic self-supplied, public supply, and wastewater) in the USGS’s 5-year national water-use estimates reports (http://water.usgs.gov/watuse/).

Multilevel model to estimate county-level untreated dental caries among US children aged 6-9years using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Mei; Zhang, Xingyou; Holt, James B; Robison, Valerie; Li, Chien-Hsun; Griffin, Susan O

2018-06-01

Because conducting population-based oral health screening is resource intensive, oral health data at small-area levels (e.g., county-level) are not commonly available. We applied the multilevel logistic regression and poststratification method to estimate county-level prevalence of untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years in the United States using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2010 linked with various area-level data at census tract, county and state levels. We validated model-based national estimates against direct estimates from NHANES. We also compared model-based estimates with direct estimates from select State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state and county levels. The model with individual-level covariates only and the model with individual-, census tract- and county-level covariates explained 7.2% and 96.3% respectively of overall county-level variation in untreated caries. Model-based county-level prevalence estimates ranged from 4.9% to 65.2% with median of 22.1%. The model-based national estimate (19.9%) matched the NHANES direct estimate (19.8%). We found significantly positive correlations between model-based estimates for 8-year-olds and direct estimates from the third-grade State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state level for 34 states (Pearson coefficient: 0.54, P=0.001) and SOHS estimates at county level for 53 New York counties (Pearson coefficient: 0.38, P=0.006). This methodology could be a useful tool to characterize county-level disparities in untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years and complement oral health surveillance to inform public health programs especially when local-level data are not available although the lack of external validation due to data unavailability should be acknowledged. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Producing remote sensing-based emission estimates of prescribed burning in the contiguous United States for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2011 National Emissions Inventory

Science.gov (United States)

McCarty, J. L.; Pouliot, G. A.; Soja, A. J.; Miller, M. E.; Rao, T.

2013-12-01

Prescribed fires in agricultural landscapes generally produce smaller burned areas than wildland fires but are important contributors to emissions impacting air quality and human health. Currently, there are a variety of available satellite-based estimates of crop residue burning, including the NOAA/NESDIS Hazard Mapping System (HMS) the Satellite Mapping Automated Reanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation (SMARTFIRE 2), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Official Burned Area Product (MCD45A1)), the MODIS Direct Broadcast Burned Area Product (MCD64A1) the MODIS Active Fire Product (MCD14ML), and a regionally-tuned 8-day cropland differenced Normalized Burn Ratio product for the contiguous U.S. The purpose of this NASA-funded research was to refine the regionally-tuned product utilizing higher spatial resolution crop type data from the USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer and burned area training data from field work and high resolution commercial satellite data to improve the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The final product delivered to the EPA included a detailed database of 25 different atmospheric emissions at the county level, emission distributions by crop type and seasonality, and GIS data. The resulting emission databases were shared with the U.S. EPA and regional offices, the National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWGC) Smoke Committee, and all 48 states in the contiguous U.S., with detailed error estimations for Wyoming and Indiana and detailed analyses of results for Florida, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Oregon. This work also provided opportunities in discovering the different needs of federal and state partners, including the various geospatial abilities and platforms across the many users and how to incorporate expert air quality, policy, and land management knowledge into quantitative earth observation-based estimations of prescribed fire emissions. Finally, this work

Roles for National Guard Components: Current Thoughts and Future Possibilities

Science.gov (United States)

2000-04-01

Gen Russell C. Davis, chief, National Guard Bureau, remarks at the National Chamber of Commerce , Washington, D.C., June 1999. 5 Moskos and Burk, 176...Lt Gen Russell C. Davis, chief, National Guard Bureau, remarks at the National Chamber of Commerce , Washington, D.C., June 9 1999. 5 National Guard...National Guard Bureau, remarks to the National Chamber of Commerce , Washington, D.C., June 1999, n.p. On-line. Internet, 27 February 2000, available at

INTEGRATION OF NPP SEMI MECHANISTIC - MODELLING, REMOTE SENSING AND CIS IN ESTIMATING CO 2 ABSORPTION OF FOREST VEGETATION IN LORE LINDU NATIONAL PARK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GODE GRAVENHORsr

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Net Primary Production, NPP, is one of the most important variables characterizing the performance of an ecosystem. It is the difference between the total carbon uptake from the air through photosynthesis and the carbon loss due to respiration by living plants. However, field measurements of NPP are time-consuming and expensive. Current techniques are therefore not useful for obtaining NPP estimates over large areas. By combining the remote sensing and GIS technology and modelling, we can estimate NPP of a large ecosystem with a little ease. This paper discusses the use of a process based physiological sunshade canopy models in estimating NPP of Lore Lindu National Park (LLNP. The discussion includes on how to parameterize the models and how to scale up from leaf to the canopy. The version documented in this manuscript is called NetPro Model, which is a potential NPP model where water effect is not included yet. The model integrates CIS and the use of Remote Sensing, and written in Visual Basic 6.0 programming language and Map Objects 2.1. NetPro has the capability of estimating NPP of Cs vegetation under present environmental condition and under future scenarios (increasing [CO2], increasing temperature and increasing or decreasing leaf nitrogen level. Based on site-measured parameterisation of VaM* (Photosynthetic capacity, /Jj (Respiration and leaf nitrogen ONi, the model was run under increasing CO2 level and temperature and varied leaf nitrogen. The output of the semi-mechanistic modelling is radiation use efficiency (?. Analysis of remote sensing data give Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and related Leaf Area Index (LAI and traction of absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (/M > AK. Climate data are obtained from 12 meteorological stations around die parks, which includes global radiations, minimum and maximum temperature. CO2 absorbed by vegetation (Gross Primary Production, GPP is then calculated using the above

Estimating the Number of Heterosexual Persons in the United States to Calculate National Rates of HIV Infection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy Lansky

Full Text Available This study estimated the proportions and numbers of heterosexuals in the United States (U.S. to calculate rates of heterosexually acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV infection. Quantifying the burden of disease can inform effective prevention planning and resource allocation.Heterosexuals were defined as males and females who ever had sex with an opposite-sex partner and excluded those with other HIV risks: persons who ever injected drugs and males who ever had sex with another man. We conducted meta-analysis using data from 3 national probability surveys that measured lifetime (ever sexual activity and injection drug use among persons aged 15 years and older to estimate the proportion of heterosexuals in the United States population. We then applied the proportion of heterosexual persons to census data to produce population size estimates. National HIV infection rates among heterosexuals were calculated using surveillance data (cases attributable to heterosexual contact in the numerators and the heterosexual population size estimates in the denominators.Adult and adolescent heterosexuals comprised an estimated 86.7% (95% confidence interval: 84.1%-89.3% of the U.S. population. The estimate for males was 84.1% (CI: 81.2%-86.9% and for females was 89.4% (95% CI: 86.9%-91.8%. The HIV diagnosis rate for 2013 was 5.2 per 100,000 heterosexuals and the rate of persons living with diagnosed HIV infection in 2012 was 104 per 100,000 heterosexuals aged 13 years or older. Rates of HIV infection were >20 times as high among black heterosexuals compared to white heterosexuals, indicating considerable disparity. Rates among heterosexual men demonstrated higher disparities than overall population rates for men.The best available data must be used to guide decision-making for HIV prevention. HIV rates among heterosexuals in the U.S. are important additions to cost effectiveness and other data used to make critical decisions about resources for

Wind Plant Preconstruction Energy Estimates. Current Practice and Opportunities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clifton, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Smith, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Fields, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-04-19

Understanding the amount of energy that will be harvested by a wind power plant each year and the variability of that energy is essential to assessing and potentially improving the financial viability of that power plant. The preconstruction energy estimate process predicts the amount of energy--with uncertainty estimates--that a wind power plant will deliver to the point of revenue. This report describes the preconstruction energy estimate process from a technical perspective and seeks to provide insight into the financial implications associated with each step.

Transports and tidal current estimates in the Taiwan Strait from shipboard ADCP observations (1999-2001)

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y. H.; Jan, S.; Wang, D. P.

2003-05-01

Tidal and mean flows in the Taiwan Strait are obtained from analysis of 2.5 years (1999-2001) of shipboard ADCP data using a spatial least-squares technique. The average tidal current amplitude is 0.46 ms -1, the maximum amplitude is 0.80 ms -1 at the northeast and southeast entrances and the minimum amplitude is 0.20 ms -1 in the middle of the Strait. The tidal current ellipses derived from the shipboard ADCP data compare well with the predictions of a high-resolution regional tidal model. For the mean currents, the average velocity is about 0.40 ms -1. The mean transport through the Strait is northward (into the East China Sea) at 1.8 Sv. The transport is related to the along Strait wind by a simple regression, transport (Sv)=2.42+0.12×wind (ms -1). Using this empirical formula, the maximum seasonal transport is in summer, about 2.7 Sv, the minimum transport is in winter, at 0.9 Sv, and the mean transport is 1.8 Sv. For comparison, this result indicates that the seasonal amplitude is almost identical to the classical estimate by Wyrtki (Physical oceanography of the southeast Asian waters, scientific results of marine investigations of the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand, 1959-1961. Naga Report 2, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, 195 pp.) based on the mass balance in the South China Sea, while the mean is close to the recent estimate by Isobe [Continental Shelf Research 19 (1999) 195] based on the mass balance in the East China Sea.

Estimation of an effect of nuclear power use for mitigate an outflow of national wealth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odani, Yohei

2013-01-01

After the Great East Japan Earthquake, nuclear power stations have been suspended to restart except for 2 reactors, with a spreading nuclear crisis and related issues such as radiation fears. As a result, Japan's trade balance in FY 2011 hits record high loss of 4.4 trillion yen, because of increased demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude import. This paper presents how nuclear power generation has played an important role in holding down the outflow of national wealth in Japan. More precisely, I was calculated an additional fossil fuel requirement and its import cost to substitute the power generation from nuclear power plant since its first operation in 1965. With this estimation, I had figure out how much loss of national wealth was mitigated by utilizing nuclear energy. (author)

Estimating national exhaust emissions from railway vehicles in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dincer, Faruk; Elbir, Tolga

2007-01-01

The estimated exhaust emissions from railway vehicles in Turkey were presented. The emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), hydrocarbon compounds (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the diesel locomotives and railcars were calculated using the railway traffic data recorded by Turkish State Railways (TSR) for the period of 2000-2005. EPA emission factors were used for different vehicle types and operation modes such as shunting and line-hauling. Total emissions from railway vehicles in Turkey were estimated as 384 t y - 1 for HC, 1016 t y - 1 for CO, 6799 t y - 1 for NO X , 256 t y - 1 for PM, 357 t y - 1 for SO 2 and 383 537 t y - 1 for CO 2 for the year 2005. The distribution of emissions with respect to type of railway vehicles shows that the mainline locomotives contribute ∝ 91% to the total emissions. The increases of 22%, 39% and 49% in the current numbers of mainline locomotives, shunting locomotives and diesel railcars, respectively corresponding to the full capacity of railway network in Turkey will increase the annual emissions to 431 t y - 1 for HC, 1121 t y - 1 for CO, 7399 t y - 1 for NO X , 342 t y - 1 for PM, 552 t y - 1 for SO 2 and 420 256 t y - 1 for CO 2 . Total railway emissions constitute 0.15%, 0.08% and 4.21% of total Turkish traffic emissions for HC, CO and NO X , respectively. (author)

Smoking behaviors and intentions among current e-cigarette users, cigarette smokers, and dual users: A national survey of U.S. high school seniors.

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Sean Esteban; Veliz, Phil; McCabe, Vita V; Boyd, Carol J

2017-06-01

E-cigarette use among adolescents has increased significantly in recent years, but it remains unclear whether cigarette smoking behaviors and intentions for future cigarette smoking differ among current (i.e., 30-day) non-users, only e-cigarette users, only cigarette smokers, and dual users. A nationally representative sample of 4385 U.S. high school seniors were surveyed during the spring of their senior year via self-administered questionnaires in 2014. An estimated 9.6% of U.S. high school seniors reported current e-cigarette use only, 6.3% reported current cigarette smoking only, and 7.2% reported current dual use of e-cigarettes and cigarette smoking. There were no significant differences between current only cigarette smokers and dual users in the odds of early onset of cigarette smoking, daily cigarette smoking, intentions for future cigarette smoking, friends' cigarette smoking behaviors, attempts to quit cigarette smoking, or the inability to quit cigarette smoking. Adolescents who only used e-cigarettes had higher odds of intentions for future cigarette smoking in the next 5years (AOR=2.57, 95% CI: 1.21-5.24) than current non-users. Dual users and only cigarette smokers had higher odds of cigarette smoking behaviors and intentions for future cigarette smoking than non-users or only e-cigarette users. Adolescents who engage in current dual use have cigarette smoking behaviors and intentions for future cigarette smoking that more closely resemble cigarette smokers than e-cigarette users. Adolescents who only use e-cigarettes have higher intentions to engage in future cigarette smoking relative to their peers who do not engage in e-cigarette use or cigarette smoking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tourism Multiplicator Effect for the National Economy of the Country

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Platon Nicolae

2017-01-01

This article addresses a rather complex theme, chosen from the desire to analyze and interpret the current dimensions of the tourism industry of the Republic of Moldova as a branch of interference, motivating the necessity of its estimation, as a multiplier for the national economy of the country.

21 CFR 1404.135 - May the Office of National Drug Control Policy exclude a person who is not currently...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 9 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false May the Office of National Drug Control Policy exclude a person who is not currently participating in a nonprocurement transaction? 1404.135 Section 1404.135 Food and Drugs OFFICE OF NATIONAL DRUG CONTROL POLICY GOVERNMENTWIDE DEBARMENT AND SUSPENSION (NONPROCUREMENT) General § 1404.135 May the...

The feasibility of a regional CTDIvol to estimate organ dose from tube current modulated CT exams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khatonabadi, Maryam; Kim, Hyun J.; Lu, Peiyun; McMillan, Kyle L.; Cagnon, Chris H.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F.; DeMarco, John J.

2013-01-01

Purpose: In AAPM Task Group 204, the size-specific dose estimate (SSDE) was developed by providing size adjustment factors which are applied to the Computed Tomography (CT) standardized dose metric, CTDI vol . However, that work focused on fixed tube current scans and did not specifically address tube current modulation (TCM) scans, which are currently the majority of clinical scans performed. The purpose of this study was to extend the SSDE concept to account for TCM by investigating the feasibility of using anatomic and organ specific regions of scanner output to improve accuracy of dose estimates. Methods: Thirty-nine adult abdomen/pelvis and 32 chest scans from clinically indicated CT exams acquired on a multidetector CT using TCM were obtained with Institutional Review Board approval for generating voxelized models. Along with image data, raw projection data were obtained to extract TCM functions for use in Monte Carlo simulations. Patient size was calculated using the effective diameter described in TG 204. In addition, the scanner-reported CTDI vol (CTDI vol,global ) was obtained for each patient, which is based on the average tube current across the entire scan. For the abdomen/pelvis scans, liver, spleen, and kidneys were manually segmented from the patient datasets; for the chest scans, lungs and for female models only, glandular breast tissue were segmented. For each patient organ doses were estimated using Monte Carlo Methods. To investigate the utility of regional measures of scanner output, regional and organ anatomic boundaries were identified from image data and used to calculate regional and organ-specific average tube current values. From these regional and organ-specific averages, CTDI vol values, referred to as regional and organ-specific CTDI vol , were calculated for each patient. Using an approach similar to TG 204, all CTDI vol values were used to normalize simulated organ doses; and the ability of each normalized dose to correlate with

National-scale estimation of gross forest aboveground carbon loss: a case study of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tyukavina, A; Potapov, P V; Turubanova, S A; Hansen, M C; Stehman, S V; Baccini, A; Goetz, S J; Laporte, N T; Houghton, R A

2013-01-01

Recent advances in remote sensing enable the mapping and monitoring of carbon stocks without relying on extensive in situ measurements. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is among the countries where national forest inventories (NFI) are either non-existent or out of date. Here we demonstrate a method for estimating national-scale gross forest aboveground carbon (AGC) loss and associated uncertainties using remotely sensed-derived forest cover loss and biomass carbon density data. Lidar data were used as a surrogate for NFI plot measurements to estimate carbon stocks and AGC loss based on forest type and activity data derived using time-series multispectral imagery. Specifically, DRC forest type and loss from the FACET (Forêts d’Afrique Centrale Evaluées par Télédétection) product, created using Landsat data, were related to carbon data derived from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Validation data for FACET forest area loss were created at a 30-m spatial resolution and compared to the 60-m spatial resolution FACET map. We produced two gross AGC loss estimates for the DRC for the last decade (2000–2010): a map-scale estimate (53.3 ± 9.8 Tg C yr −1 ) accounting for whole-pixel classification errors in the 60-m resolution FACET forest cover change product, and a sub-grid estimate (72.1 ± 12.7 Tg C yr −1 ) that took into account 60-m cells that experienced partial forest loss. Our sub-grid forest cover and AGC loss estimates, which included smaller-scale forest disturbances, exceed published assessments. Results raise the issue of scale in forest cover change mapping and validation, and subsequent impacts on remotely sensed carbon stock change estimation, particularly for smallholder dominated systems such as the DRC. (letter)

Vojvodina’s national minorities: Current realities and future prospects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petsinis Vasilis

2004-01-01

Full Text Available In this article, a critical overview of the situation of the national minorities resident in the Serbian autonomous province of Vojvodina is pursued. First of all, the novel legal framework with regard to national minorities, on the federal as well as the provincial level, is outlined. Then, the state of education in Vojvodina’s minority languages, as well as the situation of the national minorities’ media and press, is assessed. What the author tries to demonstrate is that the effective safeguard of the collective identity of Vojvodina’s national minorities primarily relies on two factors: a. the full implementation of the novel legal (federal as well as provincial provisions; b. the attitude of the national minorities themselves towards the question of preserving their group identities.

Estimation of small business activity by county for the National Infrastructure Information System (NIIS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bell, S.E. (Science Applications International Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)); Yoder, T.N. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States))

1992-09-01

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has commissioned the design of an assessment system to perform rapid analysis of the economic impacts of various disasters. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) developed the National Infrastructure Information System (NIIS) in response to this need. Its design includes several modules to support emergency assessment--the Facility Damage Assessment Module to provide rapid summaries of economic capacity at risk in a disaster area, the Regional Impacts Module (RIM) to estimate the change in a region's production, consumption, and net exports as a result of capacity lost in the disaster area, the Inter-Regional Trade Flows Module to identify potential interruptions in commodity trade flows between regions, based on the results of the RIM analysis, and the National Economic Model to identify potential macroeconomic impacts of the disaster. In addition to the assessment system, FEMA needs a core data base that contains the comprehensive, county-level information required to conduct regional and national impact analyses. The effort is focused on a general overview of the seriousness of each disaster (e.g., how large is the relative impact) and not on detailed local effects. However, the core data file must be complete enough and accurate enough to support analysis of the relative costs of different disasters. Coverage must be comprehensive in order to address equity issues, as well as detailed in the specific industries that most affect the economy's ability to respond to disaster.

Estimation of small business activity by county for the National Infrastructure Information System (NIIS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bell, S.E. [Science Applications International Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Yoder, T.N. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1992-09-01

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has commissioned the design of an assessment system to perform rapid analysis of the economic impacts of various disasters. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) developed the National Infrastructure Information System (NIIS) in response to this need. Its design includes several modules to support emergency assessment--the Facility Damage Assessment Module to provide rapid summaries of economic capacity at risk in a disaster area, the Regional Impacts Module (RIM) to estimate the change in a region`s production, consumption, and net exports as a result of capacity lost in the disaster area, the Inter-Regional Trade Flows Module to identify potential interruptions in commodity trade flows between regions, based on the results of the RIM analysis, and the National Economic Model to identify potential macroeconomic impacts of the disaster. In addition to the assessment system, FEMA needs a core data base that contains the comprehensive, county-level information required to conduct regional and national impact analyses. The effort is focused on a general overview of the seriousness of each disaster (e.g., how large is the relative impact) and not on detailed local effects. However, the core data file must be complete enough and accurate enough to support analysis of the relative costs of different disasters. Coverage must be comprehensive in order to address equity issues, as well as detailed in the specific industries that most affect the economy`s ability to respond to disaster.

Survey on utility technology of a tidal and ocean current energy

Science.gov (United States)

Hirose, Manabu; Kadoyu, Masataka; Tanaka, Hiroyoshi

1987-06-01

A study is made to show the current technological levels in Japan and other nations regarding the conversion of tidal current or ocean current energy to electric power and to determine the latent energy quantities and energy-related characteristics of tidal and ocean currents. In Japan, relatively large-scale experiments made so far mostly used one of the following three types of devices: Savonius-wheel type, Darrieus-wheel type, and cross-flow-wheel type. Field experiments of tidal energy conversion have been performed at the Naruto and Kurushima Straits. The energy in the Kuroshio current is estimated at about 170 billion kWh per year. Ocean current energy does not undergo large seasonal variations. The total energy in major straits and channels in the Inland Sea and other sea areas to the west is estimated at about 124 billion kWh per year. Tidal current energy shows large seasonal variations, but it is possible to predict the changes. A survey is made to determine energy-related characteristics of a tidal current at Chichino-seto, Kagoshima Prefecture. At Chichino-seto, the flow velocity ranges from 0 to 2.2m/s, with a latent tidal current energy of about 70 kW, of which about 20 kW can actually be utilized.

Geohydrologic Investigations and Landscape Characteristics of Areas Contributing Water to Springs, the Current River, and Jacks Fork, Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Missouri

Science.gov (United States)

Mugel, Douglas N.; Richards, Joseph M.; Schumacher, John G.

2009-01-01

The Ozark National Scenic Riverways (ONSR) is a narrow corridor that stretches for approximately 134 miles along the Current River and Jacks Fork in southern Missouri. Most of the water flowing in the Current River and Jacks Fork is discharged to the rivers from springs within the ONSR, and most of the recharge area of these springs is outside the ONSR. This report describes geohydrologic investigations and landscape characteristics of areas contributing water to springs and the Current River and Jacks Fork in the ONSR. The potentiometric-surface map of the study area for 2000-07 shows that the groundwater divide extends beyond the surface-water divide in some places, notably along Logan Creek and the northeastern part of the study area, indicating interbasin transfer of groundwater between surface-water basins. A low hydraulic gradient occurs in much of the upland area west of the Current River associated with areas of high sinkhole density, which indicates the presence of a network of subsurface karst conduits. The results of a low base-flow seepage run indicate that most of the discharge in the Current River and Jacks Fork was from identified springs, and a smaller amount was from tributaries whose discharge probably originated as spring discharge, or from springs or diffuse groundwater discharge in the streambed. Results of a temperature profile conducted on an 85-mile reach of the Current River indicate that the lowest average temperatures were within or downstream from inflows of springs. A mass-balance on heat calculation of the discharge of Bass Rock Spring, a previously undescribed spring, resulted in an estimated discharge of 34.1 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), making it the sixth largest spring in the Current River Basin. The 13 springs in the study area for which recharge areas have been estimated accounted for 82 percent (867 ft3/s of 1,060 ft3/s) of the discharge of the Current River at Big Spring during the 2006 seepage run. Including discharge from

[A national survey on current status of the important parasitic diseases in human population].

Science.gov (United States)

2005-10-30

In order to understand the current status and trends of the important parasitic diseases in human population, to evaluate the effect of control activities in the past decade and provide scientific base for further developing control strategies, a national survey was carried out in the country (Taiwan, Hongkong and Macau not included) from June, 2001 to 2004 under the sponsorship of the Ministry of Health. The sample sizes of the nationwide survey and of the survey in each province (autonomous region and municipality, P/A/M) were determined following a calculating formula based on an estimation of the sample size of random sampling to the rate of population. A procedure of stratified cluster random sampling was conducted in each province based on geographical location and economical condition with three strata: county/city, township/town, and spot, each spot covered a sample of 500 people. Parasitological examinations were conducted for the infections of soil-transmitted nematodes, Taenia spp, and Clonorchis sinensis, including Kato-Katz thick smear method, scotch cellulose adhesive tape technique and test tube-filter paper culture (for larvae). At the same time, another sampled investigation for Clonorchis sinensis infection was carried out in the known endemic areas in 27 provinces. Serological tests combined with questionnaire and/or clinical diagnosis were applied for hydatid disease, cysticercosis, paragonimiasis, trichinosis, and toxoplasmosis. A total sampled population of 356 629 from the 31 P/A/M was examined by parasitological methods and 26 species of helminth were recorded. Among these helminth, human infections of Metorchis orientalis and Echinostoma aegypti were detected in Fujian Province which seemed to be the first report in the world, and Haplorchis taichui infection in Guangxi Region was the first human infection record in the country. The overall prevalence of helminth infections was 21.74%. The prevalence of soil-transmitted nematodes was 19

Cost-estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R.

1993-01-01

Various advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include several advanced light water reactors as well as the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor and the advanced liquid-metal reactor. One measure-of the attractiveness of a new concept is cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electric generation. In order to make reasonable comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules and assumptions must be applied when developing cost estimates. This paper describes the cost-estimate guidelines developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to be used in developing cost estimates for the advanced nuclear reactors and how these guidelines relate to the DOE cost verification process

Quantifying the uncertainty of regional and national estimates of soil carbon stocks

Science.gov (United States)

Papritz, Andreas

2013-04-01

At regional and national scales, carbon (C) stocks are frequently estimated by means of regression models. Such statistical models link measurements of carbons stocks, recorded for a set of soil profiles or soil cores, to covariates that characterize soil formation conditions and land management. A prerequisite is that these covariates are available for any location within a region of interest G because they are used along with the fitted regression coefficients to predict the carbon stocks at the nodes of a fine-meshed grid that is laid over G. The mean C stock in G is then estimated by the arithmetic mean of the stock predictions for the grid nodes. Apart from the mean stock, the precision of the estimate is often also of interest, for example to judge whether the mean C stock has changed significantly between two inventories. The standard error of the estimated mean stock in G can be computed from the regression results as well. Two issues are thereby important: (i) How large is the area of G relative to the support of the measurements? (ii) Are the residuals of the regression model spatially auto-correlated or is the assumption of statistical independence tenable? Both issues are correctly handled if one adopts a geostatistical block kriging approach for estimating the mean C stock within a region and its standard error. In the presentation I shall summarize the main ideas of external drift block kriging. To compute the standard error of the mean stock, one has in principle to sum the elements a potentially very large covariance matrix of point prediction errors, but I shall show that the required term can be approximated very well by Monte Carlo techniques. I shall further illustrated with a few examples how the standard error of the mean stock estimate changes with the size of G and with the strenght of the auto-correlation of the regression residuals. As an application a robust variant of block kriging is used to quantify the mean carbon stock stored in the

Comparisons of allometric and climate-derived estimates of tree coarse root carbon stocks in forests of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew B. Russell; Grant M. Domke; Christopher W. Woodall; Anthony W. D' Amato

2015-01-01

Background: Refined estimation of carbon (C) stocks within forest ecosystems is a critical component of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of projected climate change through forest C management. Specifically, belowground C stocks are currently estimated in the United States' national greenhouse gas inventory (US NGHGI) using...

An evaluation of species richness estimators for tardigrades of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee and North Carolina, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diane R. NELSON

2007-09-01

Full Text Available For the past 5 years we have been conducting a large-scale, multi-habitat inventory of the tardigrades in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (U.S.A. as part of the All Taxa Biodiversity Inventory (ATBI (see www.dlia.org. In terrestrial habitats, we collected moss, lichen, and soil samples from 19 permanent ATBI plots, representing all major land cover types within the park. Each ATBI plot is 100 × 100 m. In each plot, when available, 16 moss samples, 16 lichen samples, and 4 soil samples were collected in paper bags and air dried in the laboratory. Specimens were isolated with LudoxAM centrifugation, and for each sample up to 50 adults plus eggs were individually mounted on microscope slides in Hoyer's medium and identified using phase contrast and DIC microscopy. Additional collections were made in the limestone caves of the Cades Cove region of the park, bird nests, and 13 different streams. To date (1-Jun-06, 589 samples have been collected, and of these 401 have been analyzed, yielding a total of 8133 identifiable tardigrades or, in some cases, species groups. A total of 73 species have been found in the park, 14 of which we believe are new to science. Seven species richness estimators have been developed to predict total species richness (see EstimateS 7.5 software, viceroy.eeb.uconn.edu/estimates, and these were evaluated by comparing predictions from half of our data to the actual numbers from the total database. The results of this comparison indicate that different estimators work best in different habitats. Using the best estimators in each habitat, EstimateS 7.5 indicates that a total of 96 species are likely to occur throughout the park. Thus, Great Smoky Mountains National Park tardigrade diversity represents 10% of the world's known tardigrade fauna.

Prospective national and regional environmental performance: Boundary estimations using a combined data envelopment - stochastic frontier analysis approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaninsky, Alexander

2010-01-01

The environmental performance of regions and largest economies of the world - actually, the efficiency of their energy sectors - is estimated for the period 2010-2030 by using forecasted values of main economic indicators. Two essentially different methodologies, data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis, are used to obtain upper and lower boundaries of the environmental efficiency index. Greenhouse gas emission per unit of area is used as a resulting indicator, with GDP, energy consumption, and population forming a background of comparable estimations. The dynamics of the upper and lower boundaries and their average is analyzed. Regions and national economies having low level or negative dynamics of environmental efficiency are determined.

Comparison of Measured and Estimated CT Organ Doses for Modulated and Fixed Tube Current:: A Human Cadaver Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Padole, Atul; Deedar Ali Khawaja, Ranish; Otrakji, Alexi; Zhang, Da; Liu, Bob; Xu, X George; Kalra, Mannudeep K

2016-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare the directly measured and the estimated computed tomography (CT) organ doses obtained from commercial radiation dose-tracking (RDT) software for CT performed with modulated tube current or automatic exposure control (AEC) technique and fixed tube current (mAs). With the institutional review board (IRB) approval, the ionization chambers were surgically implanted in a human cadaver (88 years old, male, 68 kg) in six locations such as liver, stomach, colon, left kidney, small intestine, and urinary bladder. The cadaver was scanned with routine abdomen pelvis protocol on a 128-slice, dual-source multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) scanner using both AEC and fixed mAs. The effective and quality reference mAs of 100, 200, and 300 were used for AEC and fixed mAs, respectively. Scanning was repeated three times for each setting, and measured and estimated organ doses (from RDT software) were recorded (N = 3*3*2 = 18). Mean CTDIvol for AEC and fixed mAs were 4, 8, 13 mGy and 7, 14, 21 mGy, respectively. The most estimated organ doses were significantly greater (P < 0.01) than the measured organ doses for both AEC and fixed mAs. At AEC, the mean estimated organ doses (for six organs) were 14.7 mGy compared to mean measured organ doses of 12.3 mGy. Similarly, at fixed mAs, the mean estimated organ doses (for six organs) were 24 mGy compared to measured organ doses of 22.3 mGy. The differences among the measured and estimated organ doses were higher for AEC technique compared to the fixed mAs for most organs (P < 0.01). The most CT organ doses estimated from RDT software are greater compared to directly measured organ doses, particularly when AEC technique is used for CT scanning. Copyright © 2016 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The current and potential health benefits of the National Health Service Health Check cardiovascular disease prevention programme in England: A microsimulation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Mytton, Oliver T; Jackson, Christopher; Steinacher, Arno; Goodman, Anna; Langenberg, Claudia; Griffin, Simon; Wareham, Nick; Woodcock, James

2018-03-01

The National Health Service (NHS) Health Check programme was introduced in 2009 in England to systematically assess all adults in midlife for cardiovascular disease risk factors. However, its current benefit and impact on health inequalities are unknown. It is also unclear whether feasible changes in how it is delivered could result in increased benefits. It is one of the first such programmes in the world. We sought to estimate the health benefits and effect on inequalities of the current NHS Health Check programme and the impact of making feasible changes to its implementation. We developed a microsimulation model to estimate the health benefits (incident ischaemic heart disease, stroke, dementia, and lung cancer) of the NHS Health Check programme in England. We simulated a population of adults in England aged 40-45 years and followed until age 100 years, using data from the Health Survey of England (2009-2012) and the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (1998-2012), to simulate changes in risk factors for simulated individuals over time. We used recent programme data to describe uptake of NHS Health Checks and of 4 associated interventions (statin medication, antihypertensive medication, smoking cessation, and weight management). Estimates of treatment efficacy and adherence were based on trial data. We estimated the benefits of the current NHS Health Check programme compared to a healthcare system without systematic health checks. This counterfactual scenario models the detection and treatment of risk factors that occur within 'routine' primary care. We also explored the impact of making feasible changes to implementation of the programme concerning eligibility, uptake of NHS Health Checks, and uptake of treatments offered through the programme. We estimate that the NHS Health Check programme prevents 390 (95% credible interval 290 to 500) premature deaths before 80 years of age and results in an additional 1,370 (95% credible interval 1,100 to 1,690) people

Estimating the Cost of Providing Foundational Public Health Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Mamaril, Cezar Brian C; Mays, Glen P; Branham, Douglas Keith; Bekemeier, Betty; Marlowe, Justin; Timsina, Lava

2017-12-28

To estimate the cost of resources required to implement a set of Foundational Public Health Services (FPHS) as recommended by the Institute of Medicine. A stochastic simulation model was used to generate probability distributions of input and output costs across 11 FPHS domains. We used an implementation attainment scale to estimate costs of fully implementing FPHS. We use data collected from a diverse cohort of 19 public health agencies located in three states that implemented the FPHS cost estimation methodology in their agencies during 2014-2015. The average agency incurred costs of $48 per capita implementing FPHS at their current attainment levels with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 16 percent. Achieving full FPHS implementation would require $82 per capita (CV=19 percent), indicating an estimated resource gap of $34 per capita. Substantial variation in costs exists across communities in resources currently devoted to implementing FPHS, with even larger variation in resources needed for full attainment. Reducing geographic inequities in FPHS may require novel financing mechanisms and delivery models that allow health agencies to have robust roles within the health system and realize a minimum package of public health services for the nation. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Application of the inverse estimation method of current distribution from magnetic fields using genetic algorithm to beam profile measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kishimoto, M.; Sakasai, K.; Ara, K.

1994-01-01

In this paper, the new type of non-invasive beam profile monitor for intense ion accelerator using high-temperature superconductor. We regard the inverse estimation problem of beam profile as the optimum allocation problem of the currents into the cross-section of the beam vacuum pipe and applied genetic algorithm to solve this optimization problem. And we carried out the computer simulation to verify the effectiveness of this inverse estimation method of beam profile. (author)

Longshore sediment transport rate-measurement and estimation, central west coast of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

SanilKumar, V.; Anand, N.M.; Chandramohan, P.; Naik, G.N.

rate—measurement and estimation, central west coast of India V. Sanil Kumar * , N.M. Anand, P. Chandramohan, G.N. Naik Ocean Engineering Division, National Institute of Oceanography, Donapaula, Goa 403 004, India Received 26 October 2001; received... engineering designs. The longshore current generated by obliquely incident breaking waves plays an important role in transporting sediment in the surf zone. The longshore current velocity varies across the surf zone, reaching a maximum value close to the wave...

At the Crossroads of Nanotoxicology: Past Achievements and Current Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

in ROS generation, loss of mitochondrial integrity, and increased secretion of pro - inflammatory cytokines. However, some exceptions have been noted...OELs), which are set in place by agencies such as OSHA and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). Currently, limited...was suggested as a means to estimate OELs (Warheit, 2009). Following the con - clusion of this workshop, the major outcomes were made avail- able to

Defect Shape Recovering by Parameter Estimation Arising in Eddy Current Testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Fumio

2003-01-01

This paper is concerned with a computational method for recovering a crack shape of steam generator tubes of nuclear plants. Problems on the shape identification are discussed arising in the characterization of a structural defect in a conductor using data of eddy current inspection. A surface defect on the generator tube ran be detected as a probe impedance trajectory by scanning a pancake type coil. First, a mathematical model of the inspection process is derived from the Maxwell's equation. Second, the input and output relation is given by the approximate model by virtue of the hybrid use of the finite element and boundary element method. In that model, the crack shape is characterized by the unknown coefficients of the B-spline function which approximates the crack shape geometry. Finally, a parameter estimation technique is proposed for recovering the crack shape using data from the probe coil. The computational experiments were successfully tested with the laboratory data

Current status of Australian Radioisotopes, the National Medicine Cyclotron and the Biomedicine and Health Program at Ansto

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garnett, H.

1995-01-01

An overview is provided of the current roles of Australian Radioisotopes, the National Medicine Cyclotron, and the Biomedicine and Health Program in the light of the recommendations of the recent Bain/Battelle review of ANSTO which was commissioned by the ANSTO's Board in 1994

Estimating urban forest carbon sequestration potential in the southern United States using current remote sensing imagery sources

Science.gov (United States)

Krista Merry; Pete Bettinger; Jacek Siry; J. Michael Bowker

2015-01-01

With an increased interest in reducing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, tree planting and maintenance in urban areas has become a viable option for increasing carbon sequestration. Methods for assessing the potential for planting trees within an urban area should allow for quick, inexpensive, and accurate estimations of available land using current remote sensing...

The current state of the creation and modernization of national geodetic and cartographic resources in Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doskocz Adam

2016-01-01

Full Text Available All official data are currently integrated and harmonized in a spatial reference system. This paper outlines a national geodetic and cartographic resources in Poland. The national geodetic and cartographic resources are an important part of the spatial information infrastructure in the European Community. They also provide reference data for other resources of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI, including: main and detailed geodetic control networks, base maps, land and buildings registries, geodetic registries of utilities and topographic maps. This paper presents methods of producing digital map data and technical standards for field surveys, and in addition paper also presents some aspects of building Global and Regional SDI.

Current economic situation and estimated future trends of the electricity generation options in Belgium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delvoye, J.

1996-01-01

In Belgium, the electrical engineers have to periodically establish, for the government, a national equipment plan which justifies the provided investments for a period of 10 years after the publication of the plan. The elaborated development is appreciated by four criteria: the environmental impact, the park workableness, its economic robustness and the production saving. In order to estimate this last criteria, the method used is called of the 'leveled discounted electricity generation costs'. It is recommended and used by international agencies such as the IAEA, OECD, UNIPE. The comparisons between the nuclear production cost, carried out during two successive equipment plans (1988 and 1994), show the evolution of technologies, costs and forecasts of these last ten years. In particular, the last valuation has to take into account uncertainty ranges of which the importance prevents to draw a definitive conclusion about the production mean which will be the most inexpensive in the future: competition is open between the different types of factories and fuels. The recent national equipment plan (1995-2005) proposes to cover 53% of the additional needs by gas combined-cycle power plants, 29% by coal combined-cycle power plants and 18% by the Belgian interest in French B. Chooz nuclear powered plants. The nuclear choice is open for the future. (O.M.)

The multi-objective Spanish National Forest Inventory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alberdi, I.; Vallejo, R.; Álvarez-González, J.G.; Condés, S.; González-Ferreiro, E.; Guerrero, S.

2017-11-01

Aim of study: To present the evolution of the current multi-objective Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI) through the assessment of different key indicators on challenging areas of the forestry sector. Area of study: Using information from the Second, Third and Fourth SNFI, this work provides case studies in Navarra, La Rioja, Galicia and Balearic Island regions and at national Spanish scale. Material and methods: These case studies present an estimation of reference values for dead wood by forest types, diameter-age modeling for Populus alba and Populus nigra in riparian forest, the invasiveness of alien species and the invasibility of forest types, herbivore preferences and effects on trees and shrub species, the methodology for estimating cork production , and the combination of SNFI4 information and Airborne Laser Scanning datasets with the aim of updating forest-fire behavior assessment information with a high degree of accuracy. Main results: The results show the suitability and feasibility of the proposed methodologies to estimate the indicators using SNFI data with the exception of the estimation of cork production. In this case, additional field variables were suggested in order to obtain robust estimates. Research highlights: By broadening the variables recorded, the SNFI has become an even more important source of forest information for the development of support tools for decision-making and assessment in diverse strategic fields such as those analyzed in this study.

The multi-objective Spanish National Forest Inventory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alberdi, I.; Vallejo, R.; Álvarez-González, J.G.; Condés, S.; González-Ferreiro, E.; Guerrero, S.

2017-01-01

Aim of study: To present the evolution of the current multi-objective Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI) through the assessment of different key indicators on challenging areas of the forestry sector. Area of study: Using information from the Second, Third and Fourth SNFI, this work provides case studies in Navarra, La Rioja, Galicia and Balearic Island regions and at national Spanish scale. Material and methods: These case studies present an estimation of reference values for dead wood by forest types, diameter-age modeling for Populus alba and Populus nigra in riparian forest, the invasiveness of alien species and the invasibility of forest types, herbivore preferences and effects on trees and shrub species, the methodology for estimating cork production , and the combination of SNFI4 information and Airborne Laser Scanning datasets with the aim of updating forest-fire behavior assessment information with a high degree of accuracy. Main results: The results show the suitability and feasibility of the proposed methodologies to estimate the indicators using SNFI data with the exception of the estimation of cork production. In this case, additional field variables were suggested in order to obtain robust estimates. Research highlights: By broadening the variables recorded, the SNFI has become an even more important source of forest information for the development of support tools for decision-making and assessment in diverse strategic fields such as those analyzed in this study.

Estimate of aircraft crash hit frequencies on to facilities at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Site 200

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kimura, C.Y.

1997-01-01

Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities are required by DOE Order 5480.23, Section 8.b.(3)(k) to consider external events as initiating events to accidents within the scope of their Safety Analysis Reports (SAR). One of the external initiating events which should be considered within the scope of a SAR is an aircraft accident, i.e., an aircraft crashing into the nuclear facility with the related impact and fire leading to penetration of the facility and to the release of radioactive and/or hazardous materials. This report presents the results of an Aircraft Crash Frequency analysis performed for the Materials Management Area (MMA), and the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Site 200. The analysis estimates only the aircraft crash hit frequency on to the analyzed facilities. No initial aircraft crash hit frequency screening structural response calculations of the facilities to the aircraft impact, or consequence analysis of radioactive/hazardous materials released following the aircraft impact are performed. The method used to estimate the aircraft crash hit frequencies on to facilities at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) generally follows the procedure given by the DOE Standard 3014-96 on Aircraft Crash Analysis. However, certain adjustments were made to the DOE Standard procedure because of the site specific fight environment or because of facility specific characteristics

Methods for estimating private forest ownership statistics: revised methods for the USDA Forest Service's National Woodland Owner Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Brenton J. ​Dickinson; Brett J. Butler

2013-01-01

The USDA Forest Service's National Woodland Owner Survey (NWOS) is conducted to better understand the attitudes and behaviors of private forest ownerships, which control more than half of US forestland. Inferences about the populations of interest should be based on theoretically sound estimation procedures. A recent review of the procedures disclosed an error in...

Current status of Marek’s disease in the United States & worldwide based on a questionnaire survey

Science.gov (United States)

A questionnaire was widely distributed in 2011 to estimate the global prevalence of Marek’s disease (MD) and gain a better understanding of current control strategies and future concerns. A total of 112 questionnaires were returned representing 116 countries from sources including national branch s...

Linking the Revised National Standards to Teaching Games for Understanding: An Eighth-Grade Soccer Example

Science.gov (United States)

Parkes, Craig; Subramaniam, Prithwi Raj

2015-01-01

In the United States it is estimated that over 3 million children and young people currently participate in youth soccer programs. This number has the potential to increase following a surge of interest in the U.S. Men's National Team World Cup performance in Brazil in 2014, and the U.S. Women's National Team World Cup win in Canada in 2015. This…

Estimation of the Plant Time Constant of Current-Controlled Voltage Source Converters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vidal, Ana; Yepes, Alejandro G.; Malvar, Jano

2014-01-01

Precise knowledge of the plant time constant is essential to perform a thorough analysis of the current control loop in voltage source converters (VSCs). As the loop behavior can be significantly influenced by the VSC working conditions, the effects associated to converter losses should be included...... in the model, through an equivalent series resistance. In a recent work, an algorithm to identify this parameter was developed, considering the inductance value as known and practically constant. Nevertheless, the plant inductance can also present important uncertainties with respect to the inductance...... of the VSC interface filter measured at rated conditions. This paper extends that method so that both parameters of the plant time constant (resistance and inductance) are estimated. Such enhancement is achieved through the evaluation of the closed-loop transient responses of both axes of the synchronous...

Concussions in the National Football League: A Current Concepts Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Yengo-Kahn, Aaron M; Johnson, Daniel J; Zuckerman, Scott L; Solomon, Gary S

2016-03-01

Significant attention has been directed toward the immediate and long-term effects of sport-related concussions on athletes participating in contact sports, particularly football. The highest level of football, the National Football League (NFL), has received significant attention and criticism regarding player management and safety after mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Several review articles have reported data related to concussion in the NFL, but a succinct review and synthesis of data regarding NFL concussions is currently lacking. To (1) review systematically the published data regarding concussion in the NFL and assess limitations of the studies, (2) elucidate areas where further research is needed, and (3) identify methods to improve future investigations of concussion in the NFL. Systematic review of literature. English-language titles and abstracts published between 1900 and September 2014 were searched systematically across electronic databases, and a review was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Peer-reviewed journal articles were included if they contained NFL concussion data with or without additional associated long-term effects. Reviews, editorials, letters to the editor, and comments were not included. Of the 344 records screened for review, 88 articles were assessed for eligibility. There were 31 studies that met the inclusion criteria and formed the basis of the evidence synthesis. Included in the current review were 8 case-control studies (Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine evidence level 3b), 6 descriptive epidemiological studies (level 4), 6 cross-sectional studies (level 4), 6 cohort studies (level 2b), and 5 case series (level 4). The study of concussions in the NFL has been limited by lack of recent empirical data, reliance on self-reported concussion history, and ascertainment bias of brains donated for autopsy studies. The scientific community

Estimating cigarette tax avoidance and evasion: evidence from a national sample of littered packs.

Science.gov (United States)

Barker, Dianne C; Wang, Shu; Merriman, David; Crosby, Andrew; Resnick, Elissa A; Chaloupka, Frank J

2016-10-01

A number of recent studies document the proportion of all cigarette packs that are 'contraband' using discarded packs to measure tax avoidance and evasion, which we call tax non-compliance. To date, academic studies using discarded packs focused on relatively small geographical areas such as a city or a neighbourhood. We visited 160 communities across 38 US states in 2012 and collected data from littered cigarette packs as part of the State and Community Tobacco Control (SCTC) Research Initiative and the Bridging the Gap Community Obesity Measures Project (BTG-COMP). Data collectors were trained in a previously tested littered pack data collection protocol. Field teams collected 2116 packs with cellophane across 132 communities. We estimate a national tax non-compliance rate of 18.5% with considerable variation across regions. Suburban areas had lower non-compliance than urban areas as well as areas with high and low median household income areas compared with middle income areas. We present the first academic national study of tax non-compliance using littered cigarette packs. We demonstrate the feasibility of meaningful large-scale data collection using this methodology and document considerable variation in tax non-compliance across areas, suggesting that both policy differences and geography may be important in control of illicit tobacco use. Given the geography of open borders among countries with varying tax rates, this simple methodology may be appropriate to estimate tax non-compliance in countries that use tax stamps or other pack markings, such as health warnings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Optimalisation of national industry participation in nuclear power plant construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sriyana

2008-01-01

A study of national industry participation based on recent data has already been conducted. The current industry data is used to estimate the optimum level of national industry participation in nuclear power plant (NPP) construction based on the prior study. The purpose of the study is to give a figure of the optimum level of national industry participation in NPP construction. The scope of the study is the NPP construction project in related to the potency of national industry to participate in the project. The methodology used in the study are literature study, web surfing for industrial data, and on-the-spot industry survey that are potential to participate in NPP construction. In addition to that, discussion with expertise of industrial practitioner was also conducted. The study concludes that (1) based on the recent national industry capability provided and compared to prior similar study, it is estimated that the level of national industry participation in the first NPP construction with the capacity of 1000 MWe PWR is about 40%. (2) to accelerate NPP technology transfer, we need to build a small size NPP. The nuclear island will be developed by BATAN in cooperation with national industry and the non-nuclear island will be developed by national industry. Universities and other academicians should be involved to support and keep the sustainability of man power availability in developing the NPP technology. (author)

Evaluation of alternative model-data fusion approaches in water balance estimation across Australia

Science.gov (United States)

van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Renzullo, L. J.

2009-04-01

Australia's national agencies are developing a continental modelling system to provide a range of water information services. It will include rolling water balance estimation to underpin national water accounts, water resources assessments that interpret current water resources availability and trends in a historical context, and water resources predictions coupled to climate and weather forecasting. The nation-wide coverage, currency, accuracy, and consistency required means that remote sensing will need to play an important role along with in-situ observations. Different approaches to blending models and observations can be considered. Integration of on-ground and remote sensing data into land surface models in atmospheric applications often involves state updating through model-data assimilation techniques. By comparison, retrospective water balance estimation and hydrological scenario modelling to date has mostly relied on static parameter fitting against observations and has made little use of earth observation. The model-data fusion approach most appropriate for a continental water balance estimation system will need to consider the trade-off between computational overhead and the accuracy gains achieved when using more sophisticated synthesis techniques and additional observations. This trade-off was investigated using a landscape hydrological model and satellite-based estimates of soil moisture and vegetation properties for aseveral gauged test catchments in southeast Australia.

Empirical observations offer improved estimates of forest floor carbon content across in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, C. H.; Domke, G. M.; Walters, B. F.; Smith, J. E.; Woodall, C. W.

2014-12-01

values of FFC density our preliminary estimate of FFC stocks in the US is 6 333 Tg (±106 Tg). This estimate is 29.9 percent larger (1 457 Tg) than current model-based estimates. Our research yields more representative estimates of both plot-level FFC densities and national FFC stocks that will be submitted to the USEPA and UNFCCC as part of the 2015 estimates.

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2010 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication - currently in its thirtieth edition - containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2009. The data on nuclear power are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA's Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for 2009, however, are estimated, since the latest available information from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2007. Population data originate from the World Population Prospects (2008 revision), published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2009 values again are estimates. As in the past, projections of future needs of energy, electricity and nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. Beginning with the 30th edition of this publication, however, the end-point of the estimates is extended up to the year 2050 (instead of 2030). Looking beyond 2030 is prompted by the interest expressed by numerous Member States currently without nuclear power in adding nuclear energy to their future national energy supply mixes. Given the lead times in planning and implementing nuclear power programmes, a fair share of these are likely to result in actual plant commissioning and grid connection after 2030. Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, which make a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer

Estimating family planning coverage from contraceptive prevalence using national household surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Barros, Aluisio J D; Boerma, Ties; Hosseinpoor, Ahmad R; Restrepo-Méndez, María C; Wong, Kerry L M; Victora, Cesar G

2015-01-01

Contraception is one of the most important health interventions currently available and yet, many women and couples still do not have reliable access to modern contraceptives. The best indicator for monitoring family planning is the proportion of women using contraception among those who need it. This indicator is frequently called demand for family planning satisfied and we argue that it should be called family planning coverage (FPC). This indicator is complex to calculate and requires a considerable number of questions to be included in a household survey. We propose a model that can predict FPC from a much simpler indicator - contraceptive use prevalence - for situations where it cannot be derived directly. Using 197 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys from 82 countries, we explored least-squares regression models that could be used to predict FPC. Non-linearity was expected in this situation and we used a fractional polynomial approach to find the best fitting model. We also explored the effect of calendar time and of wealth on the models explored. Given the high correlation between the variables involved in FPC, we managed to derive a relatively simple model that depends only on contraceptive use prevalence but explains 95% of the variability of the outcome, with high precision for the estimated regression line. We also show that the relationship between the two variables has not changed with time. A concordance analysis showed agreement between observed and fitted results within a range of ±9 percentage points. We show that it is possible to obtain fairly good estimates of FPC using only contraceptive prevalence as a predictor, a strategy that is useful in situations where it is not possible to estimate FPC directly.

Patient dose estimation from CT scans at the Mexican National Neurology and Neurosurgery Institute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alva-Sánchez, Héctor; Reynoso-Mejía, Alberto; Casares-Cruz, Katiuzka; Taboada-Barajas, Jesús

2014-01-01

In the radiology department of the Mexican National Institute of Neurology and Neurosurgery, a dedicated institute in Mexico City, on average 19.3 computed tomography (CT) examinations are performed daily on hospitalized patients for neurological disease diagnosis, control scans and follow-up imaging. The purpose of this work was to estimate the effective dose received by hospitalized patients who underwent a diagnostic CT scan using typical effective dose values for all CT types and to obtain the estimated effective dose distributions received by surgical and non-surgical patients. Effective patient doses were estimated from values per study type reported in the applications guide provided by the scanner manufacturer. This retrospective study included all hospitalized patients who underwent a diagnostic CT scan between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2012. A total of 8777 CT scans were performed in this two-year period. Simple brain scan was the CT type performed the most (74.3%) followed by contrasted brain scan (6.1%) and head angiotomography (5.7%). The average number of CT scans per patient was 2.83; the average effective dose per patient was 7.9 mSv; the mean estimated radiation dose was significantly higher for surgical (9.1 mSv) than non-surgical patients (6.0 mSv). Three percent of the patients had 10 or more brain CT scans and exceeded the organ radiation dose threshold set by the International Commission on Radiological Protection for deterministic effects of the eye-lens. Although radiation patient doses from CT scans were in general relatively low, 187 patients received a high effective dose (>20 mSv) and 3% might develop cataract from cumulative doses to the eye lens

Patient dose estimation from CT scans at the Mexican National Neurology and Neurosurgery Institute

Science.gov (United States)

Alva-Sánchez, Héctor; Reynoso-Mejía, Alberto; Casares-Cruz, Katiuzka; Taboada-Barajas, Jesús

2014-11-01

In the radiology department of the Mexican National Institute of Neurology and Neurosurgery, a dedicated institute in Mexico City, on average 19.3 computed tomography (CT) examinations are performed daily on hospitalized patients for neurological disease diagnosis, control scans and follow-up imaging. The purpose of this work was to estimate the effective dose received by hospitalized patients who underwent a diagnostic CT scan using typical effective dose values for all CT types and to obtain the estimated effective dose distributions received by surgical and non-surgical patients. Effective patient doses were estimated from values per study type reported in the applications guide provided by the scanner manufacturer. This retrospective study included all hospitalized patients who underwent a diagnostic CT scan between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2012. A total of 8777 CT scans were performed in this two-year period. Simple brain scan was the CT type performed the most (74.3%) followed by contrasted brain scan (6.1%) and head angiotomography (5.7%). The average number of CT scans per patient was 2.83; the average effective dose per patient was 7.9 mSv; the mean estimated radiation dose was significantly higher for surgical (9.1 mSv) than non-surgical patients (6.0 mSv). Three percent of the patients had 10 or more brain CT scans and exceeded the organ radiation dose threshold set by the International Commission on Radiological Protection for deterministic effects of the eye-lens. Although radiation patient doses from CT scans were in general relatively low, 187 patients received a high effective dose (>20 mSv) and 3% might develop cataract from cumulative doses to the eye lens.

Patient dose estimation from CT scans at the Mexican National Neurology and Neurosurgery Institute

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alva-Sánchez, Héctor, E-mail: halva@ciencias.unam.mx [Unidad de Imagen Molecular PET/CT, Instituto Nacional de Neurología y Neurocirugía Manuel Velasco Suárez, Insurgentes Sur 3877 Col. La Fama, 14269, México D.F. (Mexico); Reynoso-Mejía, Alberto [Unidad de Imagen Molecular PET/CT, Instituto Nacional de Neurología y Neurocirugía Manuel Velasco Suárez, Insurgentes Sur 3877 Col. La Fama, 14269, México D.F., Mexico and Departamento de Neuroimagen, Instituto Nacional de (Mexico); Casares-Cruz, Katiuzka; Taboada-Barajas, Jesús [Departamento de Neuroimagen, Instituto Nacional de Neurología y Neurocirugía Manuel Velasco Suárez, Insurgentes Sur 3877 Col. La Fama, 14269, México D.F. (Mexico)

2014-11-07

In the radiology department of the Mexican National Institute of Neurology and Neurosurgery, a dedicated institute in Mexico City, on average 19.3 computed tomography (CT) examinations are performed daily on hospitalized patients for neurological disease diagnosis, control scans and follow-up imaging. The purpose of this work was to estimate the effective dose received by hospitalized patients who underwent a diagnostic CT scan using typical effective dose values for all CT types and to obtain the estimated effective dose distributions received by surgical and non-surgical patients. Effective patient doses were estimated from values per study type reported in the applications guide provided by the scanner manufacturer. This retrospective study included all hospitalized patients who underwent a diagnostic CT scan between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2012. A total of 8777 CT scans were performed in this two-year period. Simple brain scan was the CT type performed the most (74.3%) followed by contrasted brain scan (6.1%) and head angiotomography (5.7%). The average number of CT scans per patient was 2.83; the average effective dose per patient was 7.9 mSv; the mean estimated radiation dose was significantly higher for surgical (9.1 mSv) than non-surgical patients (6.0 mSv). Three percent of the patients had 10 or more brain CT scans and exceeded the organ radiation dose threshold set by the International Commission on Radiological Protection for deterministic effects of the eye-lens. Although radiation patient doses from CT scans were in general relatively low, 187 patients received a high effective dose (>20 mSv) and 3% might develop cataract from cumulative doses to the eye lens.

Comprehensive target populations for current active safety systems using national crash databases.

Science.gov (United States)

Kusano, Kristofer D; Gabler, Hampton C

2014-01-01

The objective of active safety systems is to prevent or mitigate collisions. A critical component in the design of active safety systems is the identification of the target population for a proposed system. The target population for an active safety system is that set of crashes that a proposed system could prevent or mitigate. Target crashes have scenarios in which the sensors and algorithms would likely activate. For example, the rear-end crash scenario, where the front of one vehicle contacts another vehicle traveling in the same direction and in the same lane as the striking vehicle, is one scenario for which forward collision warning (FCW) would be most effective in mitigating or preventing. This article presents a novel set of precrash scenarios based on coded variables from NHTSA's nationally representative crash databases in the United States. Using 4 databases (National Automotive Sampling System-General Estimates System [NASS-GES], NASS Crashworthiness Data System [NASS-CDS], Fatality Analysis Reporting System [FARS], and National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey [NMVCCS]) the scenarios developed in this study can be used to quantify the number of police-reported crashes, seriously injured occupants, and fatalities that are applicable to proposed active safety systems. In this article, we use the precrash scenarios to identify the target populations for FCW, pedestrian crash avoidance systems (PCAS), lane departure warning (LDW), and vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) or vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) systems. Crash scenarios were derived using precrash variables (critical event, accident type, precrash movement) present in all 4 data sources. This study found that these active safety systems could potentially mitigate approximately 1 in 5 of all severity and serious injury crashes in the United States and 26 percent of fatal crashes. Annually, this corresponds to 1.2 million all severity, 14,353 serious injury (MAIS 3+), and 7412 fatal crashes. In addition

Impacts of national parks on tourism: a case study from a prominent alpine national park

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Getzner, M.

2008-01-01

National parks and other categories of protected areas are often assumed to enhance regional economic development due to park tourism. The current study attempts to estimate the impact of the Hohe Tauern national park (Austria) on tourism by exploring whether and to what extent the national park may have had an influence on tourism development. For most national park communities, the results suggest that the establishment of the national park had some impact by enforcing an already positive trend or by weakening or reversing a negative trend of tourism. However, breakpoint tests exhibit turning points up to several years after the establishment of the park, indicating that taking a national park as the basis for tourism development is a medium to long term development strategy. In the short term, the impact of a national park on tourism is not measurable. Tourism increased by 1 to 3% annually after the breakpoint, indicating that the establishment of a national park has to be incorporated into the tourism and development strategy of a region right from the start. The causal relationship between the establishment of the national park and tourism development may be weak, in particular in communities where the difference between the actual and the forecast numbers of overnight stays is small. Marketing national park tourism and building up a brand or distinctive label may therefore contribute to regional development particularly in the long term. [it

Emergency general surgery: definition and estimated burden of disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Shafi, Shahid; Aboutanos, Michel B; Agarwal, Suresh; Brown, Carlos V R; Crandall, Marie; Feliciano, David V; Guillamondegui, Oscar; Haider, Adil; Inaba, Kenji; Osler, Turner M; Ross, Steven; Rozycki, Grace S; Tominaga, Gail T

2013-04-01

Acute care surgery encompasses trauma, surgical critical care, and emergency general surgery (EGS). While the first two components are well defined, the scope of EGS practice remains unclear. This article describes the work of the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma to define EGS. A total of 621 unique International Classification of Diseases-9th Rev. (ICD-9) diagnosis codes were identified using billing data (calendar year 2011) from seven large academic medical centers that practice EGS. A modified Delphi methodology was used by the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma Committee on Severity Assessment and Patient Outcomes to review these codes and achieve consensus on the definition of primary EGS diagnosis codes. National Inpatient Sample data from 2009 were used to develop a national estimate of EGS burden of disease. Several unique ICD-9 codes were identified as primary EGS diagnoses. These encompass a wide spectrum of general surgery practice, including upper and lower gastrointestinal tract, hepatobiliary and pancreatic disease, soft tissue infections, and hernias. National Inpatient Sample estimates revealed over 4 million inpatient encounters nationally in 2009 for EGS diseases. This article provides the first list of ICD-9 diagnoses codes that define the scope of EGS based on current clinical practices. These findings have wide implications for EGS workforce training, access to care, and research.

National greenhouse gas accounts: Current anthropogenic sources and sinks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subak, S.; Raskin, P.; Hippel, David von

1992-01-01

This study provides spatially disaggregated estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the major anthropogenic sources for 145 countries. The data compilation is comprehensive in approach, including emissions from CO, CH 4 , N 2 O and ten halocarbons, in addition to CO 2 . The sources include emissions from fossil fuel production and use, cement production, halocarbons, landfills, land use changes, biomass burning, rice and livestock production and fertilizer consumption. The approach used to derive these estimates corresponds closely with the simple methodologies proposed by the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Task Force of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The inventory includes a new estimate of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion based principally on data from the International Energy Agency. The research methodologies for estimating emissions from all sources is briefly described and compared with other recent studies in the literature. (112 refs.)

The multi-objective Spanish National Forest Inventory

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Iciar Alberdi

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: To present the evolution of the current multi-objective Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI through the assessment of different key indicators on challenging areas of the forestry sector. Area of study: Using information from the Second, Third and Fourth SNFI, this work provides case studies in Navarra, La Rioja, Galicia and Balearic Island regions and at national Spanish scale. Material and methods: These case studies present an estimation of reference values for dead wood by forest types, diameter-age modeling for Populus alba and Populus nigra  in riparian forest, the invasiveness of alien species and the invasibility of forest types, herbivore preferences and effects on trees and shrub species, the methodology for estimating cork production , and the combination of SNFI4 information and Airborne Laser Scanning datasets with the aim of updating forest-fire behavior assessment information with a high degree of accuracy. Main results: The results show the suitability and feasibility of the proposed methodologies to estimate the indicators using SNFI data with the exception of the estimation of cork production. In this case, additional field variables were suggested in order to obtain robust estimates. Research highlights: By broadening the variables recorded, the SNFI has become an even more important source of forest information for the development of support tools for decision-making and assessment in diverse strategic fields such as those analyzed in this study.

Estimation of Streamflow Characteristics for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, Northeastern Montana

Science.gov (United States)

Sando, Steven K.; Morgan, Timothy J.; Dutton, DeAnn M.; McCarthy, Peter M.

2009-01-01

Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) encompasses about 1.1 million acres (including Fort Peck Reservoir on the Missouri River) in northeastern Montana. To ensure that sufficient streamflow remains in the tributary streams to maintain the riparian corridors, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is negotiating water-rights issues with the Reserved Water Rights Compact Commission of Montana. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, conducted a study to gage, for a short period, selected streams that cross CMR, and analyze data to estimate long-term streamflow characteristics for CMR. The long-term streamflow characteristics of primary interest include the monthly and annual 90-, 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows and mean streamflows (Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, respectively), and the 1.5-, 2-, and 2.33- year peak flows (PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33, respectively). The Regional Adjustment Relationship (RAR) was investigated for estimating the monthly and annual Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, and the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33 for the short-term CMR gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as CMR stations). The RAR was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the long-term Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM on a monthly basis for the months of March through June, and also on an annual basis. For the months of September through January, the RAR regression equations did not provide acceptable results for any long-term streamflow characteristic. For the month of February, the RAR regression equations provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50 and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90, Q.80, and Q.20. For the months of July and August, the RAR provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50, Q.20, and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90 and Q.80. Estimation coefficients were developed for estimating the long-term streamflow characteristics for which the RAR did not provide

Vegetable and Fruit Intakes of On-Reserve First Nations Schoolchildren Compared to Canadian Averages and Current Recommendations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian D. Martin

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This study investigated, in on-reserve First Nations (FN youth in Ontario, Canada, the following: (a the intakes of vegetable and fruit, “other” foods and relevant nutrients as compared to current recommendations and national averages, (b current prevalence rates of overweight and obesity and (c the relationship between latitude and dietary intakes. Twenty-four-hour diet recalls were collected via the Waterloo Web-Based Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (WEB-Q (n = 443. Heights and weights of participants were self reported using measured values and Body Mass Index was categorized using the International Obesity Task Force cutoffs. Food group and nutrient intakes were compared to current standards, Southern Ontario Food Behaviour data and the Canadian Community Health Survey, Cycle 2.2, using descriptive statistics. Mean vegetable and fruit, fibre and folate intakes were less than current recommendations. Girls aged 14–18 years had mean intakes of vitamin A below current recommendations for this sub-group; for all sub-groups, mean intakes of vegetables and fruit were below Canadian averages. All sub-groups also had intakes of all nutrients and food groups investigated that were less than those observed in non-FN youth from Southern Ontario, with the exception of “other” foods in boys 12–18 years. Prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were 31.8% and 19.6%, respectively, exceeding rates in the general population. Dietary intakes did not vary consistently by latitude (n = 248, as revealed by ANOVA. This study provided a unique investigation of the dietary intakes of on-reserve FN youth in Ontario and revealed poor intakes of vegetables and fruit and related nutrients and high intakes of “other” foods. Prevalence rates of overweight and obesity exceed those of the general population.

Vegetable and Fruit Intakes of On-Reserve First Nations Schoolchildren Compared to Canadian Averages and Current Recommendations

Science.gov (United States)

Gates, Allison; Hanning, Rhona M.; Gates, Michelle; Skinner, Kelly; Martin, Ian D.; Tsuji, Leonard J. S.

2012-01-01

This study investigated, in on-reserve First Nations (FN) youth in Ontario, Canada, the following: (a) the intakes of vegetable and fruit, “other” foods and relevant nutrients as compared to current recommendations and national averages, (b) current prevalence rates of overweight and obesity and (c) the relationship between latitude and dietary intakes. Twenty-four-hour diet recalls were collected via the Waterloo Web-Based Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (WEB-Q) (n = 443). Heights and weights of participants were self reported using measured values and Body Mass Index was categorized using the International Obesity Task Force cutoffs. Food group and nutrient intakes were compared to current standards, Southern Ontario Food Behaviour data and the Canadian Community Health Survey, Cycle 2.2, using descriptive statistics. Mean vegetable and fruit, fibre and folate intakes were less than current recommendations. Girls aged 14–18 years had mean intakes of vitamin A below current recommendations for this sub-group; for all sub-groups, mean intakes of vegetables and fruit were below Canadian averages. All sub-groups also had intakes of all nutrients and food groups investigated that were less than those observed in non-FN youth from Southern Ontario, with the exception of “other” foods in boys 12–18 years. Prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were 31.8% and 19.6%, respectively, exceeding rates in the general population. Dietary intakes did not vary consistently by latitude (n = 248), as revealed by ANOVA. This study provided a unique investigation of the dietary intakes of on-reserve FN youth in Ontario and revealed poor intakes of vegetables and fruit and related nutrients and high intakes of “other” foods. Prevalence rates of overweight and obesity exceed those of the general population. PMID:22690200

Current status of brachytherapy in Korea: a national survey of radiation oncologists.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Haeyoung; Kim, Joo Young; Kim, Juree; Park, Won; Kim, Young Seok; Kim, Hak Jae; Kim, Yong Bae

2016-07-01

The aim of the present study was to acquire information on brachytherapy resources in Korea through a national survey of radiation oncologists. Between October 2014 and January 2015, a questionnaire on the current status of brachytherapy was distributed to all 86 radiation oncology departments in Korea. The questionnaire was divided into sections querying general information on human resources, brachytherapy equipment, and suggestions for future directions of brachytherapy policy in Korea. The response rate of the survey was 88.3%. The average number of radiation oncologists per center was 2.3. At the time of survey, 28 centers (36.8%) provided brachytherapy to patients. Among the 28 brachytherapy centers, 15 (53.5%) were located in in the capital Seoul and its surrounding metropolitan areas. All brachytherapy centers had a high-dose rate system using (192)Ir (26 centers) or (60)Co (two centers). Among the 26 centers using (192)Ir sources, 11 treated fewer than 40 patients per year. In the two centers using (60)Co sources, the number of patients per year was 16 and 120, respectively. The most frequently cited difficulties in performing brachytherapy were cost related. A total of 21 centers had a plan to sustain the current brachytherapy system, and four centers noted plans to upgrade their brachytherapy system. Two centers stated that they were considering discontinuation of brachytherapy due to cost burdens of radioisotope source replacement. The present study illustrated the current status of brachytherapy in Korea. Financial difficulties were the major barriers to the practice of brachytherapy.

Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

Science.gov (United States)

Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

2008-09-01

Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of Ic and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose Ic value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high Ic value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high Ic value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high Ic values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The Ic × L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already revealed the

Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

2008-01-01

Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I c and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I c value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2 . About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high I c value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I c value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I c values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I c x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already

Adaptive estimation of the electromotive force of the lithium-ion battery after current interruption for an accurate state-of-charge and capacity determination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waag, Wladislaw; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2013-01-01

Highlights: • New adaptive approach for the EMF estimation. • The EMF is estimated by observing the voltage change after the current interruption. • The approach enables an accurate SoC and capacity determination. • Real-time capable algorithm. - Abstract: The online estimation of battery states and parameters is one of the challenging tasks when battery is used as a part of the pure electric or hybrid energy system. For the determination of the available energy stored in the battery, the knowledge of the present state-of-charge (SOC) and capacity of the battery is required. For SOC and capacity determination often the estimation of the battery electromotive force (EMF) is employed. The electromotive force can be measured as an open circuit voltage (OCV) of the battery when a significant time has elapsed since the current interruption. This time may take up to some hours for lithium-ion batteries and is needed to eliminate the influence of the diffusion overvoltages. This paper proposes a new approach to estimate the EMF by considering the OCV relaxation process within only some first minutes after the current interruption. The approach is based on an online fitting of an OCV relaxation model to the measured OCV relaxation curve. This model is based on an equivalent circuit consisting of a voltage source (represents the EMF) in series with the parallel connection of the resistance and a constant phase element (CPE). Based on this fitting the model parameters are determined and the EMF is estimated. The application of this method is exemplarily demonstrated for the state-of-charge and capacity estimation of the lithium-ion battery in an electrical vehicle. In the presented example the battery capacity is determined with the maximal inaccuracy of 2% using the EMF estimated at two different levels of state-of-charge. The real-time capability of the proposed algorithm is proven by its implementation on a low-cost 16-bit microcontroller (Infineon XC2287)

32 CFR 1800.14 - Fee estimates (pre-request option).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fee estimates (pre-request option). 1800.14 Section 1800.14 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense NATIONAL... Requests § 1800.14 Fee estimates (pre-request option). In order to avoid unanticipated or potentially large...

Moncton’s Student Protest Wave of 1968: Local Issues, Global Currents and the Birth of Acadian Neo-Nationalism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joel Belliveau

2013-01-01

Full Text Available When Acadian students put forward a new, left-leaning brand of nationalism at the end of the 1960s, most observers concluded that it was simply a “spill-over” effect of Quebec’s “Quiet Revolution”. This paper will put forward the case that Acadian néo-nationalisme had a lot more to do with global currents of ideas than with Québécois nationalism. It is through a New Left inspired analysis of regional inequalities that Acadian student militants became aware of disparities between the province’s linguistic groups, and through the loose adoption of an anticolonial viewpoint that they reconciled themselves to the idea of nationalism. Moreover, at all times, these actors felt and imagined their struggle to be part of a broader progressive movement.

Calculation of eddy-currents induced in a compact synchrotron superconducting magnet structure during a current ramp

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalsi, S.; Heese, R.

1991-01-01

Under DARPA sponsorship, a compact Superconducting X-Ray Light Source (SXLS) is being designed and built by the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) with industry participation from Grumman Corporation and General Dynamics. The SXLS machine employs two 180 degree curved 4 tesla superconducting dipole magnets. These magnets are required to produce a dipole field for bending the beam but at the same time they must produce finite amounts of higher multipoles which are required for conditioning the beam. In fact, uniformity of the field to less than 1 part in 10,000 must be maintained under all operating conditions. When a superconducting magnet is ramped from zero to full field, the changing magnetic field produces eddy-currents in the magnet structure which in turn can produce undesirable multipoles. This paper discusses a simple method for estimating these eddy-currents and their effect on the field harmonics. The paper presents the analysis basis and its application to the SXLS magnet support structure and to the beam chamber components

Ocean Science for Decision-Making: Current Activities of the National Research Council's Ocean Studies Board

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, S.; Glickson, D.; Mengelt, C.; Forrest, S.; Waddell, K.

2012-12-01

The National Research Council is a private, nonprofit organization chartered by Congress in 1916 as an expansion of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Its mission is to improve the use of science in government decision making and public policy, increase public understanding, and promote the acquisition and dissemination of knowledge in matters involving science, engineering, technology, and health. Within the National Research Council, the Ocean Studies Board (OSB) mission is to explore the science, policies, and infrastructure needed to understand, manage, and conserve coastal and marine environments and resources. OSB undertakes studies and workshops on emerging scientific and policy issues at the request of federal agencies, Congress, and others; provides program reviews and guidance; and facilitates communication on oceanographic issues among different sectors. OSB also serves as the U.S. National Committee to the international, nongovernmental Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR). OSB has produced reports on a wide range of topics of interest to researchers and educators, the federal government, the non-profit sector, and industry. Recent reports have focused on ecosystem services in the Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, sea level rise on the U.S. west coast, scientific ocean drilling needs and accomplishments, requirements for sustained ocean color measurements, critical infrastructure for ocean research, tsunami warning and preparedness, ocean acidification, and marine and hydrokinetic power resource assessments. Studies that are currently underway include responding to oil spills in the Arctic, evaluating the effectiveness of fishery stock rebuilding plans, and reviewing the National Ocean Acidification Research Plan. OSB plays an important role in helping create policy decisions and disseminating important information regarding various aspects of ocean science.

Prevalence estimates of chronic kidney disease in Canada: results of a nationally representative survey

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Paul; Vasa, Priya; Brenner, Darren; Iglar, Karl; McFarlane, Phil; Morrison, Howard; Badawi, Alaa

2013-01-01

Background: Chronic kidney disease is an important risk factor for death and cardiovascular-related morbidity, but estimates to date of its prevalence in Canada have generally been extrapolated from the prevalence of end-stage renal disease. We used direct measures of kidney function collected from a nationally representative survey population to estimate the prevalence of chronic kidney disease among Canadian adults. Methods: We examined data for 3689 adult participants of cycle 1 of the Canadian Health Measures Survey (2007–2009) for the presence of chronic kidney disease. We also calculated the age-standardized prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors by chronic kidney disease group. We cross-tabulated the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with albuminuria status. Results: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease during the period 2007–2009 was 12.5%, representing about 3 million Canadian adults. The estimated prevalence of stage 3–5 disease was 3.1% (0.73 million adults) and albuminuria 10.3% (2.4 million adults). The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and hypertriglyceridemia were all significantly higher among adults with chronic kidney disease than among those without it. The prevalence of albuminuria was high, even among those whose eGFR was 90 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or greater (10.1%) and those without diabetes or hypertension (9.3%). Awareness of kidney dysfunction among adults with stage 3–5 chronic kidney disease was low (12.0%). Interpretation: The prevalence of kidney dysfunction was substantial in the survey population, including individuals without hypertension or diabetes, conditions most likely to prompt screening for kidney dysfunction. These findings highlight the potential for missed opportunities for early intervention and secondary prevention of chronic kidney disease. PMID:23649413

New, national bottom-up estimate for tree-based biological ...

Science.gov (United States)

Nitrogen is a limiting nutrient in many ecosystems, but is also a chief pollutant from human activity. Quantifying human impacts on the nitrogen cycle and investigating natural ecosystem nitrogen cycling both require an understanding of the magnitude of nitrogen inputs from biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). A bottom-up approach to estimating BNF—scaling rates up from measurements to broader scales—is attractive because it is rooted in actual BNF measurements. However, bottom-up approaches have been hindered by scaling difficulties, and a recent top-down approach suggested that the previous bottom-up estimate was much too large. Here, we used a bottom-up approach for tree-based BNF, overcoming scaling difficulties with the systematic, immense (>70,000 N-fixing trees) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database. We employed two approaches to estimate species-specific BNF rates: published ecosystem-scale rates (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and published estimates of the percent of N derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) combined with FIA-derived growth rates. Species-specific rates can vary for a variety of reasons, so for each approach we examined how different assumptions influenced our results. Specifically, we allowed BNF rates to vary with stand age, N-fixer density, and canopy position (since N-fixation is known to require substantial light).Our estimates from this bottom-up technique are several orders of magnitude lower than previous estimates indicating

The impact of the ocean observing system on estimates of the California current circulation spanning three decades

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Andrew M.; Jacox, Michael G.; Crawford, William J.; Laughlin, Bruce; Edwards, Christopher A.; Fiechter, Jérôme

2017-08-01

Data assimilation is now used routinely in oceanography on both regional and global scales for computing ocean circulation estimates and for making ocean forecasts. Regional ocean observing systems are also expanding rapidly, and observations from a wide array of different platforms and sensor types are now available. Evaluation of the impact of the observing system on ocean circulation estimates (and forecasts) is therefore of considerable interest to the oceanographic community. In this paper, we quantify the impact of different observing platforms on estimates of the California Current System (CCS) spanning a three decade period (1980-2010). Specifically, we focus attention on several dynamically related aspects of the circulation (coastal upwelling, the transport of the California Current and the California Undercurrent, thermocline depth and eddy kinetic energy) which in many ways describe defining characteristics of the CCS. The circulation estimates were computed using a 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system, and our analyses also focus on the impact of the different elements of the control vector (i.e. the initial conditions, surface forcing, and open boundary conditions) on the circulation. While the influence of each component of the control vector varies between different metrics of the circulation, the impact of each observing system across metrics is very robust. In addition, the mean amplitude of the circulation increments (i.e. the difference between the analysis and background) remains relatively stable throughout the three decade period despite the addition of new observing platforms whose impact is redistributed according to the relative uncertainty of observations from each platform. We also consider the impact of each observing platform on CCS circulation variability associated with low-frequency climate variability. The low-frequency nature of the dominant climate modes in this region allows us to track through time the

Shared Solar: Current Landscape, Market Potential, and the Impact of Federal Securities Regulation; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2015-05-27

This presentation provides a high-level overview of the current U.S. shared solar landscape, the impact that a given shared solar program's structure has on requiring federal securities oversight, as well as an estimate of market potential for U.S. shared solar deployment.

Incorporating Satellite Precipitation Estimates into a Radar-Gauge Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimation Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuxiang He

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new and enhanced fusion module for the Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE that would objectively blend real-time satellite quantitative precipitation estimates (SQPE with radar and gauge estimates. This module consists of a preprocessor that mitigates systematic bias in SQPE, and a two-way blending routine that statistically fuses adjusted SQPE with radar estimates. The preprocessor not only corrects systematic bias in SQPE, but also improves the spatial distribution of precipitation based on SQPE and makes it closely resemble that of radar-based observations. It uses a more sophisticated radar-satellite merging technique to blend preprocessed datasets, and provides a better overall QPE product. The performance of the new satellite-radar-gauge blending module is assessed using independent rain gauge data over a five-year period between 2003–2007, and the assessment evaluates the accuracy of newly developed satellite-radar-gauge (SRG blended products versus that of radar-gauge products (which represents MPE algorithm currently used in the NWS (National Weather Service operations over two regions: (I Inside radar effective coverage and (II immediately outside radar coverage. The outcomes of the evaluation indicate (a ingest of SQPE over areas within effective radar coverage improve the quality of QPE by mitigating the errors in radar estimates in region I; and (b blending of radar, gauge, and satellite estimates over region II leads to reduction of errors relative to bias-corrected SQPE. In addition, the new module alleviates the discontinuities along the boundaries of radar effective coverage otherwise seen when SQPE is used directly to fill the areas outside of effective radar coverage.

State-Level Estimates of Cancer-Related Absenteeism Costs

Science.gov (United States)

Tangka, Florence K.; Trogdon, Justin G.; Nwaise, Isaac; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Guy, Gery P.; Orenstein, Diane

2016-01-01

Background Cancer is one of the top five most costly diseases in the United States and leads to substantial work loss. Nevertheless, limited state-level estimates of cancer absenteeism costs have been published. Methods In analyses of data from the 2004–2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau for 2008, and the 2009 Current Population Survey, we used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level absenteeism costs attributable to cancer from 2004 to 2008. Results We estimated that the state-level median number of days of absenteeism per year among employed cancer patients was 6.1 days and that annual state-level cancer absenteeism costs ranged from $14.9 million to $915.9 million (median = $115.9 million) across states in 2010 dollars. Absenteeism costs are approximately 6.5% of the costs of premature cancer mortality. Conclusions The results from this study suggest that lost productivity attributable to cancer is a substantial cost to employees and employers and contributes to estimates of the overall impact of cancer in a state population. PMID:23969498

National tourism indicators : historical estimates, 1986-2000

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

In the 1997 edition, new and revised benchmarks were introduced for 1992 and 1988. The indicators are used to monitor supply, demand and employment for tourism in Canada on a timely basis. The annual tables are derived using the National Income and E...

Parameter Estimation of Inverter and Motor Model at Standstill using Measured Currents Only

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Henrik; Knudsen, Morten; Tønnes, M.

1996-01-01

Methods for estimation of the parameters in the electrical equivalent diagram for the induction motor, based on special designed experiments, are given. In all experriments two of the three phases are given the same potential, i.e., no net torque is generatedand the motor is at standstill. Input...... and 3) the referred rotor rotor resistance and magnetizing inductance. The method developed in the two last experiments is independent of the inverter nonlinearity. New methods for system identification concerning saturation of the magnetic flux are given and a reference value for the flux level...... to the system is the reference values for the stator voltages given as duty cycles for the Pulse With Modulated power device. The system output is the measured stator currents. Three experiments are describedgiving respectively 1) the stator resistance and inverter parameters, 2) the stator transient inductance...

Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

1994-03-01

This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs

Estimating Green Net National Product for Puerto Rico: An Economic Measure of Sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shanshan; Heberling, Matthew T.

2016-04-01

This paper presents the data sources and methodology used to estimate Green Net National Product (GNNP), an economic metric of sustainability, for Puerto Rico. Using the change in GNNP as a one-sided test of weak sustainability (i.e., positive growth in GNNP is not enough to show the economy is sustainable), we measure the movement away from sustainability by examining the change in GNNP from 1993 to 2009. In order to calculate GNNP, we require both economic and natural capital data, but limited data for Puerto Rico require a number of simplifying assumptions. Based on the environmental challenges faced by Puerto Rico, we include damages from air emissions and solid waste, the storm protection value of mangroves and the value of extracting crushed stone as components in the depreciation of natural capital. Our estimate of GNNP also includes the value of time, which captures the effects of technological progress. The results show that GNNP had an increasing trend over the 17 years studied with two periods of negative growth (2004-2006 and 2007-2008). Our additional analysis suggests that the negative growth in 2004-2006 was possibly due to a temporary economic downturn. However, the negative growth in 2007-2008 was likely from the decline in the value of time, suggesting the island of Puerto Rico was moving away from sustainability during this time.

Estimating Green Net National Product for Puerto Rico: An Economic Measure of Sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shanshan; Heberling, Matthew T

2016-04-01

This paper presents the data sources and methodology used to estimate Green Net National Product (GNNP), an economic metric of sustainability, for Puerto Rico. Using the change in GNNP as a one-sided test of weak sustainability (i.e., positive growth in GNNP is not enough to show the economy is sustainable), we measure the movement away from sustainability by examining the change in GNNP from 1993 to 2009. In order to calculate GNNP, we require both economic and natural capital data, but limited data for Puerto Rico require a number of simplifying assumptions. Based on the environmental challenges faced by Puerto Rico, we include damages from air emissions and solid waste, the storm protection value of mangroves and the value of extracting crushed stone as components in the depreciation of natural capital. Our estimate of GNNP also includes the value of time, which captures the effects of technological progress. The results show that GNNP had an increasing trend over the 17 years studied with two periods of negative growth (2004-2006 and 2007-2008). Our additional analysis suggests that the negative growth in 2004-2006 was possibly due to a temporary economic downturn. However, the negative growth in 2007-2008 was likely from the decline in the value of time, suggesting the island of Puerto Rico was moving away from sustainability during this time.

THE CURRENT STATE OF SEED PRODUCTION OF VEGETABLES AND GOURDS IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION; NATIONAL FOOD SAFETY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. M. Sirota

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The current state of seed market of vegetable and gourds in Russian Federation in the frame of national food safety program is given in the article. Russia as a country with well-developed  seed production  in the last century has now  ceded  its  position,  and according  to  last experts’ association estimations the 80%  of  required volume of seeds of vegetables and gourds, amounting from 8 to 12 thousand per year is imported.  Not  less than 15 thousands  of  hectares  are  needed  to  be  necessary  for demand  of  Russian seed  production  sector,  however, presently only 2 thousands of hectares is a total certified land used for seed production.  Moreover, the seed production sector of some countries that export seeds rises becoming a profitable branch of agriculture, and providing local employment. The lack of competitiveness in Russia causes that many foreign companies increase annually purchasing prices for seeds and their production services. Therefore, now the total volume of seeds imported  in  Russian Federation has nearly been  twice less for the last years than in 2012, but in currency earnings in exporting countries the insignificant changes can be seen, where deviation is only 19-25%  from  average annual value, that means 1675 thousand dollars per year. Besides, for the Russian budget in the ruble currency the total cost of imported seeds has become 2.5 times more expensive since 2012, but the increase of combined cost of  marketable  vegetables  has been  over  2.7  billion  of rubles.  The  main  idea  that  the  seed  production  is  a process requiring the participation of breeders, seed producers and seed companies is main factor to succeed in recovering seed production sector. Exception of any participant or ignoring his interests may destroy all process. For instance, there is a chronic problem of plagiarism and royalty nonpayment causes the break between the business and

Support to LANL: Cost estimation. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for Cost Estimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing cost estimates for DOE planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors

Estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere due to time mean currents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roble, R.G.; Matsushita, S.

1975-01-01

An estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere is made based on derived global equivalent overhead electric current systems in the dynamo region during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The equivalent total electric field distribution is calculated from Ohm's law. The global-scale joule heating rates are calculated for various monthly average periods in 1965. The calculated joule heating rates maximize at high latitudes in the early evening and postmidnight sectors. During geomagnetically quiet times the daytime joule heating rates are considerably lower than heating by solar EUV radiation. However, during geomagnetically disturbed periods the estimated joule heating rates increase by an order of magnitude and can locally exceed the solar EUV heating rates. The results show that joule heating is an important and at times the dominant energy source at high latitudes. However, the global mean joule heating rates calculated near solar minimum are generally small compared to the global mean solar EUV heating rates. (auth)

Current State of Laparoscopic Colonic Surgery in Austria: A National Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Klugsberger, Bettina; Haas, Dietmar; Oppelt, Peter; Neuner, Ludwig; Shamiyeh, Andreas

2015-12-01

Several studies have demonstrated that laparoscopic colonic resection has significant benefits in comparison with open approaches in patients with benign and malignant disease. The proportion of colonic and rectal resections conducted laparoscopically in Austria is not currently known; the aim of this study was to evaluate the current status of laparoscopic colonic surgery in Austria. A questionnaire was distributed to all general surgical departments in Austria. In collaboration with IMAS, an Austrian market research institute, an online survey was used to identify laparoscopic and open colorectal resections performed in 2013. The results were compared with data from the National Hospital Morbidity Database (NHMD), in which administrative in-patient data were also collected from all general surgical departments in Austria in 2013. Fifty-three of 99 surgical departments in Austria responded (53.5%); 4335 colonic and rectal resections were carried out in the participating departments, representing 50.5% of all NHMD-recorded colorectal resections (n = 8576) in Austria in 2013. Of these 4335 colonic and rectal resections, 2597 (59.9%) were carried out using an open approach, 1674 (38.6%) were laparoscopic, and an exact classification was not available for 64 (1.5%). Among the NHMD-recorded colonic and rectal resections, 6342 (73.9%) were carried out with an open approach, and 2234 (26.1%) were laparoscopic. The proportion of colorectal resections that are carried out laparoscopically is low (26.1%). Technical challenges and a learning curve with a significant number of cases may be reasons for the slow adoption of laparoscopic colonic surgery.

Current interventions in the management of knee osteoarthritis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dinesh Bhatia

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Osteoarthritis (OA is progressive joint disease characterized by joint inflammation and a reparative bone response and is one of the top five most disabling conditions that affects more than one-third of persons > 65 years of age, with an average estimation of about 30 million Americans currently affected by this disease. Global estimates reveal more than 100 million people are affected by OA. The financial expenditures for the care of persons with OA are estimated at a total annual national cost estimate of $15.5-$28.6 billion per year. As the number of people >65 years increases, so does the prevalence of OA and the need for cost-effective treatment and care. Developing a treatment strategy which encompasses the underlying physiology of degenerative joint disease is crucial, but it should be considerate to the different age ranges and different population needs. This paper focuses on different exercise and treatment protocols (pharmacological and non-pharmacological, the outcomes of a rehabilitation center, clinician-directed program versus an at home directed individual program to view what parameters are best at reducing pain, increasing functional independence, and reducing cost for persons diagnosed with knee OA.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wang, Haidong; Wolock, Tim M.; Carter, Austin; Nguyen, Grant; Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Hay, Simon I.; Mills, Edward J.; Trickey, Adam; Msemburi, William; Coates, Matthew M.; Mooney, Meghan D.; Fraser, Maya S.; Sligar, Amber; Salomon, Joshua; Larson, Heidi J.; Friedman, Joseph; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd El Razek, Mohamed Magdy; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adelekan, Ademola Lukman; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsene Kouablan; Ajala, Oluremi N.; Akinyemiju, Tomi F.; Akseer, Nadia; Al Lami, Faris Hasan; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore K. M.; Alasfoor, Deena; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed S.; Aldridge, Robert William; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Ali, Raghib; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Hoek, Hans W.

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

2016-01-01

and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all......Summary Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage......-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software...

How far could the alien boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis spread? Worldwide estimation of its current and future potential distribution.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simone Guareschi

Full Text Available Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv is a corixid (Hemiptera originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of

How Far Could the Alien Boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis Spread? Worldwide Estimation of Its Current and Future Potential Distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Guareschi, Simone; Coccia, Cristina; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Carbonell, José Antonio; Velasco, Josefa; Boyero, Luz; Green, Andy J.; Millán, Andrés

2013-01-01

Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on

Poverty among Foster Children: Estimates Using the Supplemental Poverty Measure

Science.gov (United States)

Pac, Jessica; Waldfogel, Jane; Wimer, Christopher

2017-01-01

We use data from the Current Population Survey and the new Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) to provide estimates for poverty among foster children over the period 1992 to 2013. These are the first large-scale national estimates for foster children who are not included in official poverty statistics. Holding child and family demographics constant, foster children have a lower risk of poverty than other children. Analyzing income in detail suggests that foster care payments likely play an important role in reducing the risk of poverty in this group. In contrast, we find that children living with grandparents have a higher risk of poverty than other children, even after taking demographics into account. Our estimates suggest that this excess risk is likely linked to their lower likelihood of receiving foster care or other income supports. PMID:28659651

Residential Lighting End-Use Consumption Study: Estimation Framework and Initial Estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gifford, Will R.; Goldberg, Miriam L.; Tanimoto, Paulo M.; Celnicker, Dane R.; Poplawski, Michael E.

2012-12-01

The U.S. DOE Residential Lighting End-Use Consumption Study is an initiative of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Solid-State Lighting Program that aims to improve the understanding of lighting energy usage in residential dwellings. The study has developed a regional estimation framework within a national sample design that allows for the estimation of lamp usage and energy consumption 1) nationally and by region of the United States, 2) by certain household characteristics, 3) by location within the home, 4) by certain lamp characteristics, and 5) by certain categorical cross-classifications (e.g., by dwelling type AND lamp type or fixture type AND control type).

Current Titles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Various

2006-06-01

This booklet is published for those interested in current research being conducted at the National Center for Electron Microscopy. The NCEM is a DOE-designated national user facility and is available at no charge to qualified researchers. Access is controlled by an external steering committee. Interested researchers may contact Jane Cavlina, Administrator, at 510/486-6036.

A Novel Sensorless Control Strategy for Brushless Direct Current Motor Based on the Estimation of Line Back Electro-Motive Force

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengde Tong

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a novel sensorless control strategy based on the estimation of line back electro-motive force (BEMF is proposed. According to the phase relationship between the ideal commutation points of the brushless direct current motor (BLDCM and the zero-crossing points (ZCPs of the line BEMF, the calculation formula of line BEMF is simplified properly and the commutation rule for different positions of the rotor is presented. The estimation error of line BEMF caused by the freewheeling current of silent phase is analyzed, and the solution is given. With the phase shift of the low-pass filter considered, a compensation method using “60°-α” and “120°-α” is studied in this paper to eliminate the error. Finally, the simulation and experimental results show that the rotor-position-detection error is reduced effectively and the motor driven by the accurate commutation signal can work well at low and high speed.

Direct estimates of national neonatal and child cause–specific mortality proportions in Niger by expert algorithm and physician–coded analysis of verbal autopsy interviews

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry D. Kalter

2015-06-01

cases and deaths. Conclusions Verbal autopsy conducted in the context of a national mortality survey can provide useful estimates of the cause distributions of neonatal and child deaths. While the current study found reasonable agreement between the expert algorithm and physician analyses, it also demonstrated greater plausibility for two algorithmic diagnoses and validation work is needed to ascertain the findings. Direct, large–scale measurement of causes of death complement, can strengthen, and in some settings may be preferred over modeled estimates.

Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shiohara, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan)], E-mail: shiohara@istec.or.jp; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan); Yamada, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Nagoya Coated Conductor Center, 2-4-1, Mutsuno, Atsuta-ku, Nagoya 456-8587 (Japan)

2008-09-15

Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I{sub c} and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I{sub c} value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO{sub 2}. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO{sub 2} doping showed a high I{sub c} value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I{sub c} value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I{sub c} values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I{sub c} x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current

Current estimates of radiation risks and implications for dose limits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, R.H.

1989-01-01

The publication of the 1988 report of UNSCEAR represents a major step forward in that there is an international consensus on the estimation of risk from exposure to ionising radiation. The estimates of fatal cancers in the UNSCEAR report are up to 4 times the values in the 1977 review. This paper will describe the reasons for the increase, the remaining uncertainties and the implications for dose limits in occupational and public exposure. (author)

Biomass availability in forests, poplar plantations and hedges for various timber uses. National assessment based on the national forest inventory data and wood consumption statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ginisty, Christian; Vallet, Patrick; Chevalier, Helene; COLIN, Antoine

2011-01-01

This article provides an assessment of the quantities of potentially exploitable timber in French forests, poplar plantations and hedges for the period 2007 to 2020. The first step consisted in computing the gross available quantities of timber, prior to deduction of the various current consumptions. This was done applying the reference silvicultural scenarios to all the plots in the French national forest inventory, on the basis of their features (species, structure, fertility, age, observed per hectare volume). Current consumption was then subtracted from these quantities. It was estimated using the annual sectoral 'forest exploitation' survey in industry and an estimation of fuelwood consumption by households. The outcome is an excess availability of more than 28 million cubic metres of timber per year for bio-energy or pulp uses, and nearly 15 million cubic metres of workable timber, essentially hardwoods. (authors)

Worldwide F(ST) estimates relative to five continental-scale populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Steele, Christopher D; Court, Denise Syndercombe; Balding, David J

2014-11-01

We estimate the population genetics parameter FST (also referred to as the fixation index) from short tandem repeat (STR) allele frequencies, comparing many worldwide human subpopulations at approximately the national level with continental-scale populations. FST is commonly used to measure population differentiation, and is important in forensic DNA analysis to account for remote shared ancestry between a suspect and an alternative source of the DNA. We estimate FST comparing subpopulations with a hypothetical ancestral population, which is the approach most widely used in population genetics, and also compare a subpopulation with a sampled reference population, which is more appropriate for forensic applications. Both estimation methods are likelihood-based, in which FST is related to the variance of the multinomial-Dirichlet distribution for allele counts. Overall, we find low FST values, with posterior 97.5 percentiles estimates, and are also about half the magnitude of STR-based estimates from population genetics surveys that focus on distinct ethnic groups rather than a general population. Our findings support the use of FST up to 3% in forensic calculations, which corresponds to some current practice.

Cost of employee assistance programs: comparison of national estimates from 1993 and 1995.

Science.gov (United States)

French, M T; Zarkin, G A; Bray, J W; Hartwell, T D

1999-02-01

The cost and financing of mental health services is gaining increasing importance with the spread of managed care and cost-cutting measures throughout the health care system. The delivery of mental health services through structured employee assistance programs (EAPs) could be undermined by revised health insurance contracts and cutbacks in employer-provided benefits at the workplace. This study uses two recently completed national surveys of EAPs to estimate the costs of providing EAP services during 1993 and 1995. EAP costs are determined by program type, worksite size, industry, and region. In addition, information on program services is reported to determine the most common types and categories of services and whether service delivery changes have occurred between 1993 and 1995. The results of this study will be useful to EAP managers, mental health administrators, and mental health services researchers who are interested in the delivery and costs of EAP services.

Prevalence of Multiple Chronic Conditions Among US Adults: Estimates From the National Health Interview Survey, 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Schiller, Jeannine S.

2013-01-01

Preventing and ameliorating chronic conditions has long been a priority in the United States; however, the increasing recognition that people often have multiple chronic conditions (MCC) has added a layer of complexity with which to contend. The objective of this study was to present the prevalence of MCC and the most common MCC dyads/triads by selected demographic characteristics. We used respondent-reported data from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to study the US adult civilian noninstitutionalized population aged 18 years or older (n = 27,157). We categorized adults as having 0 to 1, 2 to 3, or 4 or more of the following chronic conditions: hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, hepatitis, weak or failing kidneys, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or current asthma. We then generated descriptive estimates and tested for significant differences. Twenty-six percent of adults have MCC; the prevalence of MCC has increased from 21.8% in 2001 to 26.0% in 2010. The prevalence of MCC significantly increased with age, was significantly higher among women than men and among non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black adults than Hispanic adults. The most common dyad identified was arthritis and hypertension, and the combination of arthritis, hypertension, and diabetes was the most common triad. The findings of this study contribute information to the field of MCC research. The NHIS can be used to identify population subgroups most likely to have MCC and potentially lead to clinical guidelines for people with more common MCC combinations. PMID:23618545

Estuarine chinook capacity - Estimating changes in juvenile Chinook rearing area and carrying capacity in estuarine and freshwater habitats of the Puget Sound region

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project has two objectives: 1. Estimate the amount of rearing habitat available to juvenile Chinook salmon currently and historically (i.e., ~1850s) throughout...

Estimation of the Levelised Electricity Generation Cost for a PWR-Power Plant and Preliminary Evaluation of National Participation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saba, G; Hainoun, A

2008-01-01

This work deals with the detailed economic evaluation of the Levelised discounted electricity generation costs (LDEGC) for a nuclear power plant with pressurized water reactor (PWR). The total generation costs are splited in base construction costs, supplementary costs, owner's costs, financial costs, fuel cycle costs and operation and maintenance costs. The evaluation covers also the sensitivity of the estimated energy unit cost to various factors (real annual discount rate, escalation rate, interest rate, load factor, ..) including the role of national participation, that depends upon the development of national infrastructure. For performing this study the IAEA's program package for economic bid evaluation (Bideval-3) has been employed. The program is designed to assist the user in the economic evaluation of bids for nuclear power plant (NPP). It follows the recommended method of determining the present worth value of all costs components for generated electricity unit. The performed study aims at developing national expertise in the field of bid evaluation for electric power plants with main emphasis on NPP. Additional goal is to convoying the technical and economic development of NPP technology that can help in supporting the decision maker with adequate information related to the future development of energy supply system and measures required for ensuring national energy supply security. (author)

32 CFR 1900.14 - Fee estimates (pre-request option).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fee estimates (pre-request option). 1900.14 Section 1900.14 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE... § 1900.14 Fee estimates (pre-request option). In order to avoid unanticipated or potentially large fees...

Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael A Sawaya

Full Text Available We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos and black bear (U. americanus populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008 and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008 in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17 and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20 using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

2012-01-01

We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

Unemployment estimation: Spatial point referenced methods and models

KAUST Repository

Pereira, Soraia

2017-06-26

Portuguese Labor force survey, from 4th quarter of 2014 onwards, started geo-referencing the sampling units, namely the dwellings in which the surveys are carried. This opens new possibilities in analysing and estimating unemployment and its spatial distribution across any region. The labor force survey choose, according to an preestablished sampling criteria, a certain number of dwellings across the nation and survey the number of unemployed in these dwellings. Based on this survey, the National Statistical Institute of Portugal presently uses direct estimation methods to estimate the national unemployment figures. Recently, there has been increased interest in estimating these figures in smaller areas. Direct estimation methods, due to reduced sampling sizes in small areas, tend to produce fairly large sampling variations therefore model based methods, which tend to

Current National Approach to Healthcare ICT Standardization: Focus on Progress in New Zealand.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Young-Taek; Atalag, Koray

2015-07-01

Many countries try to efficiently deliver high quality healthcare services at lower and manageable costs where healthcare information and communication technologies (ICT) standardisation may play an important role. New Zealand provides a good model of healthcare ICT standardisation. The purpose of this study was to review the current healthcare ICT standardisation and progress in New Zealand. This study reviewed the reports regarding the healthcare ICT standardisation in New Zealand. We also investigated relevant websites related with the healthcare ICT standards, most of which were run by the government. Then, we summarised the governance structure, standardisation processes, and their output regarding the current healthcare ICT standards status of New Zealand. New Zealand government bodies have established a set of healthcare ICT standards and clear guidelines and procedures for healthcare ICT standardisation. Government has actively participated in various enactments of healthcare ICT standards from the inception of ideas to their eventual retirement. Great achievements in eHealth have already been realized, and various standards are currently utilised at all levels of healthcare regionally and nationally. Standard clinical terminologies, such as International Classification of Diseases (ICD) and Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine - Clinical Terms (SNOMED-CT) have been adopted and Health Level Seven (HL7) standards are actively used in health information exchanges. The government to New Zealand has well organised ICT institutions, guidelines, and regulations, as well as various programs, such as e-Medications and integrated care services. Local district health boards directly running hospitals have effectively adopted various new ICT standards. They might already be benefiting from improved efficiency resulting from healthcare ICT standardisation.

Refining estimates of public health spending as measured in national health expenditure accounts: the Canadian experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballinger, Geoff

2007-01-01

The recent focus on public health stemming from, among other things, severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian flu has created an imperative to refine health-spending estimates in the Canadian Health Accounts. This article presents the Canadian experience in attempting to address the challenges associated with developing the needed taxonomies for systematically capturing, measuring, and analyzing the national investment in the Canadian public health system. The first phase of this process was completed in 2005, which was a 2-year project to estimate public health spending based on a more classic definition by removing the administration component of the previously combined public health and administration category. Comparing the refined public health estimate with recent data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development still positions Canada with the highest share of total health expenditure devoted to public health than any other country reporting. The article also provides an analysis of the comparability of public health estimates across jurisdictions within Canada as well as a discussion of the recommendations for ongoing improvement of public health spending estimates. The Canadian Institute for Health Information is an independent, not-for-profit organization that provides Canadians with essential statistics and analysis on the performance of the Canadian health system, the delivery of healthcare, and the health status of Canadians. The Canadian Institute for Health Information administers more than 20 databases and registries, including Canada's Health Accounts, which tracks historically 40 categories of health spending by 5 sources of finance for 13 provincial and territorial jurisdictions. Until 2005, expenditure on public health services in the Canadian Health Accounts included measures to prevent the spread of communicable disease, food and drug safety, health inspections, health promotion, community mental health programs, public

Econometric Methods within Romanian Quarterly National Accounts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Livia Marineta Drăguşin

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to synthesise the main econometric methods (including the mathematical and statistical ones used in the Romanian Quarterly National Accounts compilation, irrespectively of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (QGDP. These methods are adapted for a fast manner to operatively provide information about the country macroeconomic evolution to interested users. In this context, the mathematical and econometric methods play an important role in obtaining quarterly accounts valued in current prices and in constant prices, in seasonal adjustments and flash estimates of QGDP.

A database for estimating organ dose for coronary angiography and brain perfusion CT scans for arbitrary spectra and angular tube current modulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rupcich, Franco; Badal, Andreu; Kyprianou, Iacovos; Schmidt, Taly Gilat

2012-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a database for estimating organ dose in a voxelized patient model for coronary angiography and brain perfusion CT acquisitions with any spectra and angular tube current modulation setting. The database enables organ dose estimation for existing and novel acquisition techniques without requiring Monte Carlo simulations. Methods: The study simulated transport of monoenergetic photons between 5 and 150 keV for 1000 projections over 360° through anthropomorphic voxelized female chest and head (0° and 30° tilt) phantoms and standard head and body CTDI dosimetry cylinders. The simulations resulted in tables of normalized dose deposition for several radiosensitive organs quantifying the organ dose per emitted photon for each incident photon energy and projection angle for coronary angiography and brain perfusion acquisitions. The values in a table can be multiplied by an incident spectrum and number of photons at each projection angle and then summed across all energies and angles to estimate total organ dose. Scanner-specific organ dose may be approximated by normalizing the database-estimated organ dose by the database-estimated CTDI vol and multiplying by a physical CTDI vol measurement. Two examples are provided demonstrating how to use the tables to estimate relative organ dose. In the first, the change in breast and lung dose during coronary angiography CT scans is calculated for reduced kVp, angular tube current modulation, and partial angle scanning protocols relative to a reference protocol. In the second example, the change in dose to the eye lens is calculated for a brain perfusion CT acquisition in which the gantry is tilted 30° relative to a nontilted scan. Results: Our database provides tables of normalized dose deposition for several radiosensitive organs irradiated during coronary angiography and brain perfusion CT scans. Validation results indicate total organ doses calculated using our database are

National Health Expenditure Data

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — National Health Expenditure Accounts are comprised of the following, National Health Expenditures - Historical and Projected, Age Estimates, State Health...

The high current, fast, 100ns, Linear Transformer Driver (LTD) developmental project at Sandia National Laboratories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, Kevin S.; Long, Finis W.; Sinebryukhov, Vadim A.; Kim, Alexandre A.; Wakeland, Peter Eric; McKee, G. Randall; Woodworth, Joseph Ray; McDaniel, Dillon Heirman; Fowler, William E.; Mazarakis, Michael Gerrassimos; Porter, John Larry Jr.; Struve, Kenneth William; Stygar, William A.; LeChien, Keith R.; Matzen, Maurice Keith

2010-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, N.M., USA, in collaboration with the High Current Electronic Institute (HCEI), Tomsk, Russia, is developing a new paradigm in pulsed power technology: the Linear Transformer Driver (LTD) technology. This technological approach can provide very compact devices that can deliver very fast high current and high voltage pulses straight out of the cavity with out any complicated pulse forming and pulse compression network. Through multistage inductively insulated voltage adders, the output pulse, increased in voltage amplitude, can be applied directly to the load. The load may be a vacuum electron diode, a z-pinch wire array, a gas puff, a liner, an isentropic compression load (ICE) to study material behavior under very high magnetic fields, or a fusion energy (IFE) target. This is because the output pulse rise time and width can be easily tailored to the specific application needs. In this paper we briefly summarize the developmental work done in Sandia and HCEI during the last few years, and describe our new MYKONOS Sandia High Current LTD Laboratory.

Psychotropic medication in the French child and adolescent population: prevalence estimation from health insurance data and national self-report survey data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Legleye Stéphane

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this work is to estimate the French frequencies of dispensed psychotropic prescriptions in children and adolescents. Prevalence estimations of dispensed prescriptions are compared to the frequencies of use of psychotropic reported by 17 year-old adolescents. Methods Prescription data is derived from national health insurance databases. Frequencies of dispensed prescriptions are extrapolated to estimate a range for the 2004 national rates. Self-report data is derived from the 2003 and 2005 ESCAPAD study, an epidemiological study based on a questionnaire focused on health and drug consumption. Results The prevalence estimation shows that the prevalence of prescription of a psychotropic medication to young persons between 3 and 18 years is about 2.2%. In 2005, the self-report study (ESCAPAD shows that 14.9% of 17 year-old adolescents took medication for "nerves" or "to sleep" during the previous 12 months. The same study in 2003 also shows that 62.3% of adolescents aged 17 and 18 reporting psychotropic use, took the medication for anxiety and 56.8% to sleep. Only 49.7% of these medications are suggested by a doctor. Conclusion This study underlines a similar range of prevalence of psychotropic prescriptions in France to that observed in other European countries. Nevertheless, the proportion of antipsychotics and benzodiazepines seems to be higher, whereas the proportion of methylphenidate is lower. Secondly, a disparity between the prevalence of dispensed prescriptions and the self-report of actual use of psychotropics has been highlighted by the ESCAPAD study which shows that these treatments are widely used as "self-medication".

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2017 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2017-01-01

Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication — currently in its thirty-seventh edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the status of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2016 based on statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). It then presents estimates of energy and electricity up to 2050 derived from various international studies, including the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2016 and the United States Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2016. The energy and electricity data for 2016 are estimated, as the latest information available from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2014. Population data originate from World Population Prospects (2015 revision), published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2016 values again are estimates. As in previous editions of RDS-1, projections of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the uncertainties inherent in projecting trends. The projections are based on a critical review of (i) the global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear power projections made by other international organizations, (ii) national projections supplied by individual countries for a recent OECD Nuclear Energy Agency study and (iii) the estimates of the expert group participating in the IAEA’s yearly consultancy on nuclear capacity projections. The low and high estimates reflect contrasting, but not extreme, underlying assumptions on the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be

The effect of angular and longitudinal tube current modulations on the estimation of organ and effective doses in x-ray computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Straten, Marcel van; Deak, Paul; Shrimpton, Paul C.; Kalender, Willi A.

2009-01-01

Purpose: Tube current modulation (TCM) is one of the recent developments in multislice CT that has proven to reduce the patient radiation dose without affecting the image quality. Presently established methods and published coefficients for estimating organ doses from the dose measured free in air on the axis of rotation or in the CT dose index (CTDI) dosimetry phantoms do not take into account this relatively new development in CT scanner design and technology. Based on these organ dose coefficients effective dose estimates can be made. The estimates are not strictly valid for CT scanning protocols utilizing TCM. In this study, the authors investigated the need to take TCM into account when estimating organ and effective dose values. Methods: A whole-body adult anthropomorphic phantom (Alderson Rando) was scanned with a multislice CT scanner (Somatom Definition, Siemens, Forchheim, Germany) utilizing TCM (CareDose4D). Tube voltage was 120 kV, beam collimation 19.2 mm, and pitch 1. A voxelized patient model was used to define the tissues and organs in the phantom. Tube current values as a function of tube angle were obtained from the raw data for each individual tube rotation of the scan. These values were used together with the Monte Carlo dosimetry tool IMPACTMC (VAMP GmbH, Erlangen, Germany) to calculate organ dose values both with and without account of TCM. Angular and longitudinal modulations were investigated separately. Finally, corresponding effective dose conversion coefficients were determined for both cases according to the updated 2007 recommendations of the ICRP. Results: TCM amplitude was greatest in the shoulder and pelvic regions. Consequently, dose distributions and organ dose values for particular cross sections changed considerably when taking angular modulation into account. The effective dose conversion coefficients were up to 11% lower for a single rotation in the shoulder region and 17% lower in the pelvis when taking angular TCM into

The burden of prostate cancer in Asian nations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Cullen

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: In this review, the International Agency for Research on Cancer′s cancer epidemiology databases were used to examine prostate cancer (PCa age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR in selected Asian nations, including Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5 and GLOBOCAN databases, in an effort to determine whether ASIRs are rising in regions of the world with historically low risk of PCa development. Materials and Methods: Asian nations with adequate data quality were considered for this review. PCa ASIR estimates from CI5 and GLOBOCAN 2008 public use databases were examined in the four eligible countries: China, Japan, Korea and Singapore. Time trends in PCa ASIRs were examined using CI5 Volumes I-IX. Results: While PCa ASIRs remain much lower in the Asian nations examined than in North America, there is a clear trend of increasing PCa ASIRs in the four countries examined. Conclusion: Efforts to systematically collect cancer incidence data in Asian nations must be expanded. Current CI5 data indicate a rise in PCa ASIR in several populous Asian countries. If these rates continue to rise, it is uncertain whether there will be sufficient resources in place, in terms of trained personnel and infrastructure for medical treatment and continuum of care, to handle the increase in PCa patient volume. The recommendation by some experts to initiate PSA screening in Asian nations could compound a resource shortfall. Obtaining accurate estimates of PCa incidence in these countries is critically important for preparing for a potential shift in the public health burden posed by this disease.

Current titles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-07-01

This booklet is published for those interested in current research being conducted at the National Center for Electron Microscopy. The NCEM is a DOE-designated national user facility and is available at no charge to qualified researchers. Access is controlled by an external steering committee. Interested researchers may contact Gretchen Hermes at (510) 486-5006 or address below for a User`s Guide. Copies of available papers can be ordered from: Theda Crawford National Center for Electron Microscopy, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, One Cyclotron Rd., MS72, Berkeley, California, USA 94720.

Calculation of eddy-currents induced in a compact synchrotron superconducting magnet structure during a current ramp

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalsi, S.

1991-01-01

Under DARPA sponsorship, a compact Superconducting X-Ray Light Source (SXSL) is being designed and built by the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) with industry participation from Grumman Corporation and General Dynamics. The SXLS machine employs two 180 degrees curved 4 telsa superconducting dipole magnets. These magnets are required to produce a dipole field for bending the beam but at the same time they must produce finite amounts of higher multipoles which are required for conditioning the beam. In fact uniformity of the field to less than 1 part in 10,000 must be maintained under all operating conditions. When a superconducting magnet is ramped from zero to full field, the changing magnetic field produces eddy-currents in the magnet structure which in turn can produce undesirable multipoles. This paper discusses a simple method for estimating these eddy-currents and their effect on the field harmonics. The paper present the analysis basis and its application to the SXLS magnet support structure and to the beam chamber components. 5 figs., 1 tab

Estimation of the spatial distribution of traps using space-charge-limited current measurements in an organic single crystal

KAUST Repository

Dacuña, Javier

2012-09-06

We used a mobility edge transport model and solved the drift-diffusion equation to characterize the space-charge-limited current of a rubrene single-crystal hole-only diode. The current-voltage characteristics suggest that current is injection-limited at high voltage when holes are injected from the bottom contact (reverse bias). In contrast, the low-voltage regime shows that the current is higher when holes are injected from the bottom contact as compared to hole injection from the top contact (forward bias), which does not exhibit injection-limited current in the measured voltage range. This behavior is attributed to an asymmetric distribution of trap states in the semiconductor, specifically, a distribution of traps located near the top contact. Accounting for a localized trap distribution near the contact allows us to reproduce the temperature-dependent current-voltage characteristics in forward and reverse bias simultaneously, i.e., with a single set of model parameters. We estimated that the local trap distribution contains 1.19×1011 cm -2 states and decays as exp(-x/32.3nm) away from the semiconductor-contact interface. The local trap distribution near one contact mainly affects injection from the same contact, hence breaking the symmetry in the charge transport. The model also provides information of the band mobility, energy barrier at the contacts, and bulk trap distribution with their corresponding confidence intervals. © 2012 American Physical Society.

Estimating Typhoon Rainfall over Sea from SSM/I Satellite Data Using an Improved Genetic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Yeh, K.; Wei, H.; Chen, L.; Liu, G.

2010-12-01

Estimating Typhoon Rainfall over Sea from SSM/I Satellite Data Using an Improved Genetic Programming Keh-Chia Yeha, Hsiao-Ping Weia,d, Li Chenb, and Gin-Rong Liuc a Department of Civil Engineering, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, 300, R.O.C. b Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Informatics, Chung Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, 300, R.O.C. c Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Tao-Yuan, Taiwan, 320, R.O.C. d National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei County, Taiwan, 231, R.O.C. Abstract This paper proposes an improved multi-run genetic programming (GP) and applies it to predict the rainfall using meteorological satellite data. GP is a well-known evolutionary programming and data mining method, used to automatically discover the complex relationships among nonlinear systems. The main advantage of GP is to optimize appropriate types of function and their associated coefficients simultaneously. This study makes an improvement to enhance escape ability from local optimums during the optimization procedure. The GP continuously runs several times by replacing the terminal nodes at the next run with the best solution at the current run. The current novel model improves GP, obtaining a highly nonlinear mathematical equation to estimate the rainfall. In the case study, this improved GP described above combining with SSM/I satellite data is employed to establish a suitable method for estimating rainfall at sea surface during typhoon periods. These estimated rainfalls are then verified with the data from four rainfall stations located at Peng-Jia-Yu, Don-Gji-Dao, Lan-Yu, and Green Island, which are four small islands around Taiwan. From the results, the improved GP can generate sophisticated and accurate nonlinear mathematical equation through two-run learning procedures which outperforms the traditional multiple linear regression, empirical equations and back-propagated network

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2013 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication - currently in its thirty-third edition - containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2012. The data on nuclear power presented are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA's power Reactor Information System (PRIS). However, energy and electricity data for 2012 are estimated, as the latest information available from the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2010 only. Population data originate from the world population prospects (2010 revision), published by the population Division of the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2012 values again are estimates. As in previous editions, projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, which make a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input assumptions as: - Economic growth; - Correlation of economic growth and energy use; - Technology performance and costs; - Energy resource availability and future fuel prices; - Energy policy and physical, environmental and economic constraints

Global, regional and national levels and trends of preterm birth rates for 1990 to 2014: protocol for development of World Health Organization estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Joshua P; Chawanpaiboon, Saifon; Watananirun, Kanokwaroon; Lumbiganon, Pisake; Petzold, Max; Moller, Ann-Beth; Thinkhamrop, Jadsada; Laopaiboon, Malinee; Seuc, Armando H; Hogan, Daniel; Tunçalp, Ozge; Allanson, Emma; Betrán, Ana Pilar; Bonet, Mercedes; Oladapo, Olufemi T; Gülmezoglu, A Metin

2016-06-17

The official WHO estimates of preterm birth are an essential global resource for assessing the burden of preterm birth and developing public health programmes and policies. This protocol describes the methods that will be used to identify, critically appraise and analyse all eligible preterm birth data, in order to develop global, regional and national level estimates of levels and trends in preterm birth rates for the period 1990 - 2014. We will conduct a systematic review of civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) data on preterm birth for all WHO Member States, via national Ministries of Health and Statistics Offices. For Member States with absent, limited or lower-quality CRVS data, a systematic review of surveys and/or research studies will be conducted. Modelling will be used to develop country, regional and global rates for 2014, with time trends for Member States where sufficient data are available. Member States will be invited to review the methodology and provide additional eligible data via a country consultation before final estimates are developed and disseminated. This research will be used to generate estimates on the burden of preterm birth globally for 1990 to 2014. We invite feedback on the methodology described, and call on the public health community to submit pertinent data for consideration. Registered at PROSPERO CRD42015027439 CONTACT: pretermbirth@who.int.

Predicted national productivity implications of calorie and sodium reductions in the American diet.

Science.gov (United States)

Dall, Timothy M; Fulgoni, Victor L; Zhang, Yiduo; Reimers, Kristin J; Packard, Patricia T; Astwood, James D

2009-01-01

To model the potential long-term national productivity benefits from reduced daily intake of calories and sodium. Simulation based on secondary data analysis; quantitative research. Measures include absenteeism, presenteeism, disability, and premature mortality under various hypothetical dietary changes. United States. Two hundred twenty-five million adults. Findings come from a Nutrition Impact Model that combines information from national surveys, peer-reviewed studies, and government reports. We compare current estimates of national productivity loss associated with overweight, obesity, and hypertension to estimates for hypothetical scenarios in which national prevalence of these risk factors is lower. Using the simulation model, we illustrate how modest dietary change can achieve lower national prevalence of excess weight and hypertension. We estimate that permanent 100-kcal reductions in daily intake among the overweight/obese would eliminate approximately 71.2 million cases of overweight/obesity. In the long term, this could increase national productivity by $45.7 billion annually. Long-term sodium reductions of 400 mg in those with uncontrolled hypertension would eliminate about 1.5 million cases, potentially increasing productivity by $2.5 billion annually. More aggressive diet changes of 500 kcal and 1100 mg of sodium reductions yield potential productivity benefits of $133.3 and $5.8 billion, respectively. The potential long-term benefit of reduced calories and sodium, combining medical cost savings with productivity increases, ranges from $108.5 billion for moderate reductions to $255.6 billion for aggressive reductions. These findings help inform public health policy and the business case for improving diet. (AmJ Health Promot 2009;23[6]:423-430.)

Evaluating the accuracy of sampling to estimate central line-days: simplification of the National Healthcare Safety Network surveillance methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Nicola D; Edwards, Jonathan R; Bamberg, Wendy; Beldavs, Zintars G; Dumyati, Ghinwa; Godine, Deborah; Maloney, Meghan; Kainer, Marion; Ray, Susan; Thompson, Deborah; Wilson, Lucy; Magill, Shelley S

2013-03-01

To evaluate the accuracy of weekly sampling of central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) denominator data to estimate central line-days (CLDs). Obtained CLABSI denominator logs showing daily counts of patient-days and CLD for 6-12 consecutive months from participants and CLABSI numerators and facility and location characteristics from the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). Convenience sample of 119 inpatient locations in 63 acute care facilities within 9 states participating in the Emerging Infections Program. Actual CLD and estimated CLD obtained from sampling denominator data on all single-day and 2-day (day-pair) samples were compared by assessing the distributions of the CLD percentage error. Facility and location characteristics associated with increased precision of estimated CLD were assessed. The impact of using estimated CLD to calculate CLABSI rates was evaluated by measuring the change in CLABSI decile ranking. The distribution of CLD percentage error varied by the day and number of days sampled. On average, day-pair samples provided more accurate estimates than did single-day samples. For several day-pair samples, approximately 90% of locations had CLD percentage error of less than or equal to ±5%. A lower number of CLD per month was most significantly associated with poor precision in estimated CLD. Most locations experienced no change in CLABSI decile ranking, and no location's CLABSI ranking changed by more than 2 deciles. Sampling to obtain estimated CLD is a valid alternative to daily data collection for a large proportion of locations. Development of a sampling guideline for NHSN users is underway.

The Current and Projected Taxpayer Shares of US Health Costs.

Science.gov (United States)

Himmelstein, David U; Woolhandler, Steffie

2016-03-01

We estimated taxpayers' current and projected share of US health expenditures, including government payments for public employees' health benefits as well as tax subsidies to private health spending. We tabulated official Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services figures on direct government spending for health programs and public employees' health benefits for 2013, and projected figures through 2024. We calculated the value of tax subsidies for private spending from official federal budget documents and figures for state and local tax collections. Tax-funded health expenditures totaled $1.877 trillion in 2013 and are projected to increase to $3.642 trillion in 2024. Government's share of overall health spending was 64.3% of national health expenditures in 2013 and will rise to 67.1% in 2024. Government health expenditures in the United States account for a larger share of gross domestic product (11.2% in 2013) than do total health expenditures in any other nation. Contrary to public perceptions and official Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services estimates, government funds most health care in the United States. Appreciation of government's predominant role in health funding might encourage more appropriate and equitable targeting of health expenditures.

COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING CONTEMPORARY COSTS: AN APPLICATION TO LIVER TRANSPLANTATION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Jeshika; Longworth, Louise

2017-01-01

Our study addresses the important issue of estimating treatment costs from historical data. It is a problem frequently faced by health technology assessment analysts. We compared four approaches used to estimate current costs when good quality contemporary data are not available using liver transplantation as an example. First, the total cost estimates extracted for patients from a cohort study, conducted in the 1990s, were inflated using a published inflation multiplier. Second, resource use estimates from the cohort study were extracted for hepatitis C patients and updated using current unit costs. Third, expert elicitation was carried out to identify changes in clinical practice over time and quantify current resource use. Fourth, routine data on resource use were obtained from National Health Service Blood and Transplant (NHSBT). The first two methods did not account for changes in clinical practice. Also the first was not specific to hepatitis patients. The use of experts confirmed significant changes in clinical practice. However, the quantification of resource use using experts is challenging as clinical specialists may not have a complete overview of clinical pathway. The NHSBT data are the most accurate reflection of transplantation and posttransplantation phase; however, data were not available for the whole pathway of care. The best estimate of total cost, combining NHSBT data and expert elicitation, is £121,211. Observational data from routine care are potentially the most reliable reflection of current resource use. Efforts should be made to make such data readily available and accessible to researchers. Expert elicitation provided reasonable estimates.

Indirectly estimated absolute lung cancer mortality rates by smoking status and histological type based on a systematic review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Peter N; Forey, Barbara A

2013-01-01

National smoking-specific lung cancer mortality rates are unavailable, and studies presenting estimates are limited, particularly by histology. This hinders interpretation. We attempted to rectify this by deriving estimates indirectly, combining data from national rates and epidemiological studies. We estimated study-specific absolute mortality rates and variances by histology and smoking habit (never/ever/current/former) based on relative risk estimates derived from studies published in the 20 th century, coupled with WHO mortality data for age 70–74 for the relevant country and period. Studies with populations grossly unrepresentative nationally were excluded. 70–74 was chosen based on analyses of large cohort studies presenting rates by smoking and age. Variations by sex, period and region were assessed by meta-analysis and meta-regression. 148 studies provided estimates (Europe 59, America 54, China 22, other Asia 13), 54 providing estimates by histology (squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma). For all smoking habits and lung cancer types, mortality rates were higher in males, the excess less evident for never smokers. Never smoker rates were clearly highest in China, and showed some increasing time trend, particularly for adenocarcinoma. Ever smoker rates were higher in parts of Europe and America than in China, with the time trend very clear, especially for adenocarcinoma. Variations by time trend and continent were clear for current smokers (rates being higher in Europe and America than Asia), but less clear for former smokers. Models involving continent and trend explained much variability, but non-linearity was sometimes seen (with rates lower in 1991–99 than 1981–90), and there was regional variation within continent (with rates in Europe often high in UK and low in Scandinavia, and higher in North than South America). The indirect method may be questioned, because of variations in definition of smoking and lung cancer type in the

Indirectly estimated absolute lung cancer mortality rates by smoking status and histological type based on a systematic review

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background National smoking-specific lung cancer mortality rates are unavailable, and studies presenting estimates are limited, particularly by histology. This hinders interpretation. We attempted to rectify this by deriving estimates indirectly, combining data from national rates and epidemiological studies. Methods We estimated study-specific absolute mortality rates and variances by histology and smoking habit (never/ever/current/former) based on relative risk estimates derived from studies published in the 20th century, coupled with WHO mortality data for age 70–74 for the relevant country and period. Studies with populations grossly unrepresentative nationally were excluded. 70–74 was chosen based on analyses of large cohort studies presenting rates by smoking and age. Variations by sex, period and region were assessed by meta-analysis and meta-regression. Results 148 studies provided estimates (Europe 59, America 54, China 22, other Asia 13), 54 providing estimates by histology (squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma). For all smoking habits and lung cancer types, mortality rates were higher in males, the excess less evident for never smokers. Never smoker rates were clearly highest in China, and showed some increasing time trend, particularly for adenocarcinoma. Ever smoker rates were higher in parts of Europe and America than in China, with the time trend very clear, especially for adenocarcinoma. Variations by time trend and continent were clear for current smokers (rates being higher in Europe and America than Asia), but less clear for former smokers. Models involving continent and trend explained much variability, but non-linearity was sometimes seen (with rates lower in 1991–99 than 1981–90), and there was regional variation within continent (with rates in Europe often high in UK and low in Scandinavia, and higher in North than South America). Conclusions The indirect method may be questioned, because of variations in definition of smoking and

Current Situation and Reforms Making Way for Future Positive Developments in the National Education System of Bulgaria: An Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Genova, Teodora

2015-01-01

This paper on the education system of Bulgaria is aimed at presenting its structure, current situation, problems and challenges that it faces, and on-going reforms leading to some positive trends in the development of the national education sector. At the moment of writing this paper in the year 2015, we will mark the 1160th anniversary of the…

TU-H-207A-08: Estimating Radiation Dose From Low-Dose Lung Cancer Screening CT Exams Using Tube Current Modulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardy, A; Bostani, M; McMillan, K; Zankl, M; Cagnon, C; McNitt-Gray, M

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this work is to estimate effective and lung doses from a low-dose lung cancer screening CT protocol using Tube Current Modulation (TCM) across patient models of different sizes. Methods: Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate effective and lung doses from a low-dose lung cancer screening protocol for a 64-slice CT (Sensation 64, Siemens Healthcare) that used TCM. Scanning parameters were from the AAPM protocols. Ten GSF voxelized patient models were used and had all radiosensitive organs identified to facilitate estimating both organ and effective doses. Predicted TCM schemes for each patient model were generated using a validated method wherein tissue attenuation characteristics and scanner limitations were used to determine the TCM output as a function of table position and source angle. The water equivalent diameter (WED) was determined by estimating the attenuation at the center of the scan volume for each patient model. Monte Carlo simulations were performed using the unique TCM scheme for each patient model. Lung doses were tallied and effective doses were estimated using ICRP 103 tissue weighting factors. Effective and lung dose values were normalized by scanspecific 32 cm CTDIvol values based upon the average tube current across the entire simulated scan. Absolute and normalized doses were reported as a function of WED for each patient. Results: For all ten patients modeled, the effective dose using TCM protocols was below 1.5 mSv. Smaller sized patient models experienced lower absolute doses compared to larger sized patients. Normalized effective and lung doses showed some dependence on patient size (R2 = 0.77 and 0.78, respectively). Conclusion: Effective doses for a low-dose lung screening protocol using TCM were below 1.5 mSv for all patient models used in this study. Institutional research agreement, Siemens Healthcare; Past recipient, research grant support, Siemens Healthcare; Consultant, Toshiba America Medical

TU-H-207A-08: Estimating Radiation Dose From Low-Dose Lung Cancer Screening CT Exams Using Tube Current Modulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hardy, A; Bostani, M [University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA (United States); McMillan, K [Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN (United States); Zankl, M [Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen, Neuherberg (Germany); Cagnon, C [UCLA Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA (United States); McNitt-Gray, M [UCLA School of Medicine, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: The purpose of this work is to estimate effective and lung doses from a low-dose lung cancer screening CT protocol using Tube Current Modulation (TCM) across patient models of different sizes. Methods: Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate effective and lung doses from a low-dose lung cancer screening protocol for a 64-slice CT (Sensation 64, Siemens Healthcare) that used TCM. Scanning parameters were from the AAPM protocols. Ten GSF voxelized patient models were used and had all radiosensitive organs identified to facilitate estimating both organ and effective doses. Predicted TCM schemes for each patient model were generated using a validated method wherein tissue attenuation characteristics and scanner limitations were used to determine the TCM output as a function of table position and source angle. The water equivalent diameter (WED) was determined by estimating the attenuation at the center of the scan volume for each patient model. Monte Carlo simulations were performed using the unique TCM scheme for each patient model. Lung doses were tallied and effective doses were estimated using ICRP 103 tissue weighting factors. Effective and lung dose values were normalized by scanspecific 32 cm CTDIvol values based upon the average tube current across the entire simulated scan. Absolute and normalized doses were reported as a function of WED for each patient. Results: For all ten patients modeled, the effective dose using TCM protocols was below 1.5 mSv. Smaller sized patient models experienced lower absolute doses compared to larger sized patients. Normalized effective and lung doses showed some dependence on patient size (R2 = 0.77 and 0.78, respectively). Conclusion: Effective doses for a low-dose lung screening protocol using TCM were below 1.5 mSv for all patient models used in this study. Institutional research agreement, Siemens Healthcare; Past recipient, research grant support, Siemens Healthcare; Consultant, Toshiba America Medical

DNA-based hair sampling to identify road crossings and estimate population size of black bears in Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia

OpenAIRE

Wills, Johnny

2008-01-01

The planned widening of U.S. Highway 17 along the east boundary of Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge (GDSNWR) and a lack of knowledge about the refugeâ s bear population created the need to identify potential sites for wildlife crossings and estimate the size of the refugeâ s bear population. I collected black bear hair in order to collect DNA samples to estimate population size, density, and sex ratio, and determine road crossing locations for black bears (Ursus americanus) in G...

National and regional estimates of term and preterm babies born small for gestational age in 138 low-income and middle-income countries in 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lee, Anne C C; Katz, Joanne; Blencowe, Hannah

2013-01-01

million low-birthweight babies, 59% were term-SGA and 41% were preterm-SGA. Two-thirds of small-for-gestational-age infants were born in Asia (17·4 million in south Asia). Preterm-SGA babies totalled 2·8 million births in low-income and middle-income countries. Most small-for-gestational-age infants were......BACKGROUND: National estimates for the numbers of babies born small for gestational age and the comorbidity with preterm birth are unavailable. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of term and preterm babies born small for gestational age (term-SGA and preterm-SGA), and the relation to low...... birthweight (age was defined as lower than the 10th centile for fetal growth from the 1991 US national reference population. Data from 22 birth cohort studies (14 low-income and middle-income countries) and from...

Estimates on the mean current in a sphere of plasma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nunez, Manuel

2003-01-01

Several turbulent dynamo models predict the concentration of the magnetic field in chaotic plasmas in sheets with the field vector pointing alternatively in opposite directions, which should produce strong current sheets. It is proved that if the plasma is contained in a rigid sphere with perfectly conducting boundary the geometry of these sheets must be balanced so that the mean current remains essentially bounded by the Coulomb gauged mean vector potential of the field. This magnitude remains regular even for the sharp field variations expected in a chaotic flow. For resistive plasmas the same arguments imply that the contribution to the total current of the regions near the boundary compensates the current of the central part of the sphere

National South African HIV prevalence estimates robust despite ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Approximately 18% of all people living with HIV in 2013 were estimated to live in South Africa (SA),[1] which ... 1 Research Department of Infection and Population Health, Institute for Global Health, University College London, UK.

Relative validity of fruit and vegetable intake estimated by the food frequency questionnaire used in the Danish National Birth Cohort

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, Tina B.; Olsen, Sjurdur F.; Rasmussen, Salka E.

2007-01-01

) (r=0.57); and fruit, vegetables, and juice (F&V&J) (r=0.62). Sensitivities of correct classification by FFQ into the two lowest and the two highest quintiles of F&V&J intake were 58-67% and 50-74%, respectively, and specificities were 71-79% and 65-83%, respectively. F&V&J intake estimated from......Objective: To validate the fruit and vegetable intake estimated from the Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) used in the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC). Subjects and setting: The DNBC is a cohort of 101,042 pregnant women in Denmark, who received a FFQ by mail in gestation week 25. A validation...... study with 88 participants was made. A seven-day weighed food diary (FD) and three different biomarkers were employed as comparison methods. Results: Significant correlations between FFQ and FD-based estimates were found for fruit (r=0.66); vegetables (r=0.32); juice (r=0.52); fruit and vegetables (F&V...

Comparison of Remote Sensing and Fixed-Site Monitoring Approaches for Examining Air Pollution and Health in a National Study Population

Science.gov (United States)

Prud'homme, Genevieve; Dobbin, Nina A.; Sun, Liu; Burnet, Richard T.; Martin, Randall V.; Davidson, Andrew; Cakmak, Sabit; Villeneuve, Paul J.; Lamsal, Lok N.; vanDonkelaar, Aaron;

Health Status of Current National Guard Members

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Proctor, Susan P

2005-01-01

.... The objectives are to: 1) describe the current health status of this ARNG cohort, 2) examine to what extent the job strain of ARNG service affects the relationship between Civilian job strain and health and job performance outcomes and, 3...

Monitoring and estimating tropical forest carbon stocks: making REDD a reality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gibbs, Holly K; Brown, Sandra; Niles, John O; Foley, Jonathan A

2007-01-01

Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and degradation in developing countries is of central importance in efforts to combat climate change. Key scientific challenges must be addressed to prevent any policy roadblocks. Foremost among the challenges is quantifying nations' carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, which requires information on forest clearing and carbon storage. Here we review a range of methods available to estimate national-level forest carbon stocks in developing countries. While there are no practical methods to directly measure all forest carbon stocks across a country, both ground-based and remote-sensing measurements of forest attributes can be converted into estimates of national carbon stocks using allometric relationships. Here we synthesize, map and update prominent forest biomass carbon databases to create the first complete set of national-level forest carbon stock estimates. These forest carbon estimates expand on the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guidelines and provide a range of globally consistent estimates

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2016 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication — currently in its thirty-sixth edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2015. The data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). However, energy and electricity data for 2015 are estimated, as the latest information available from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2013. Population data originate from the World Population Prospects (2012 revision), published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2015 values again are estimates. As in previous editions, projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including projections for nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, making a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences relate to such fundamental input assumptions as: • Economic growth; • Correlation of economic growth and energy use; • Technology performance and costs; • Energy resource availability and future fuel prices; •• Energy policy and physical, environmental and economic constraints

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2014 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication — currently in its thirty-fourth edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2013. The data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). However, energy and electricity data for 2013 are estimated, as the latest information available from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2011. Population data originate from the World Population Prospects (2010 revision), published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2013 values again are estimates. As in previous editions, projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, making a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences relate to such fundamental input assumptions as: • Economic growth; • Correlation of economic growth and energy use; • Technology performance and costs; • Energy resource availability and future fuel prices; • Energy policy and physical, environmental and economic constraints

Herpetofaunal Inventories of the National Parks of South Florida and the Caribbean: Volume III. Big Cypress National Preserve

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, Kenneth G.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Crockett, Marquette E.; Jeffrey, Brian M.; Rice, Amanda N.; Percival, H. Franklin

2005-01-01

occupied, but it will also be useful as a comparative baseline for future monitoring efforts. In addition to sampling for amphibians, all encounters with reptiles were documented. The sampling methods used for detecting amphibians are also appropriate for many reptile species. These reptile locations are included in this report, but the number of reptile observations was not sufficient to estimate PAO for reptile species. We encountered 35 of the 46 species of reptiles believed to be present in Big Cypress National Preserve during this study, and evidence exists of the presence of four other reptile species in the Preserve. This study found no evidence of amphibian decline in Big Cypress National Preserve. Although no evidence of decline was observed, several threats to amphibians were identified. Introduced species, especially the Cuban treefrog (Osteopilus septentrionalis), are predators and competitors with several native frog species. The recreational use of off-road vehicles has the potential to affect some amphibian populations, and a study on those potential impacts is currently underway. Also, interference by humans with the natural hydrologic cycle of south Florida has the potential to alter the amphibian community. Continued monitoring of the amphibian species in Big Cypress National Preserve is recommended. The methods used in this study were adequate to produce reliable estimates of the proportion of sites occupied by most anuran species, and are a cost-effective means of determining the status of their populations.

Calibration of 1 ohm standard resistor in National Metrology Institute of Malaysia (NMIM)

Science.gov (United States)

Ishak, Nirul Irwani; Ibarahim, Zahari

2018-04-01

This paper describes the calibration of the National Standard of Resistance using an Automatic Direct Current Comparator Bridge (DCC Bridge). We will also discuss the various sources of uncertainty in the measurements and their estimations based on Type A and Type B evaluations. Furthermore, we discuss the uncertainty budget and report the results at k = 2 for the coverage probability of approximately 95% for a normal distribution.

A National Profile of Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Diagnosis and Treatment Among US Children Aged 2 to 5 Years.

Science.gov (United States)

Danielson, Melissa L; Visser, Susanna N; Gleason, Mary Margaret; Peacock, Georgina; Claussen, Angelika H; Blumberg, Stephen J

2017-09-01

Clinical guidelines provide recommendations for diagnosis and treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), with specific guidance on caring for children younger than 6 years. This exploratory study describes ADHD diagnosis and treatment patterns among young children in the United States using 2 nationally representative parent surveys. The National Survey of Children's Health (2007-2008, 2011-2012) was used to produce weighted prevalence estimates of current ADHD and ADHD medication treatment among US children aged 2 to 5 years. The National Survey of Children with Special Health Care Needs (2009-2010) provided additional estimates on types of medication treatment and receipt of behavioral treatment among young children with special health care needs (CSHCN) with ADHD. In 2011 to 2012, 1.5% of young children (approximately 237,000) had current ADHD compared to 1.0% in 2007 to 2008. In 2011 to 2012, 43.7% of young children with current ADHD were taking medication for ADHD (approximately 104,000). In young CSHCN with ADHD, central nervous system stimulants were the most common medication type used to treat ADHD, and 52.8% of young CSHCN with current ADHD had received behavioral treatment for ADHD in the past year. Nearly a quarter million In young CSHCN have current ADHD, with a prevalence that has increased by 57% from 2007 to 2008 to 2011 to 2012. The demographic patterns of diagnosis and treatment described in this study can serve as a benchmark to monitor service use patterns of young children diagnosed with ADHD over time.

Estimating contribution of wildland fires to ambient ozone levels in National Parks in the Sierra Nevada, California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Zhong Shiyuan; Esperanza, Annie; Brown, Timothy J.; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Tarnay, Leland

2010-01-01

Data from four continuous ozone and weather monitoring sites operated by the National Park Service in Sierra Nevada, California, are used to develop an ozone forecasting model and to estimate the contribution of wildland fires on ambient ozone levels. The analyses of weather and ozone data pointed to the transport of ozone precursors from the Central Valley as an important source of pollution in these National Parks. Comparisons of forecasted and observed values demonstrated that accurate forecasts of next-day hourly ozone levels may be achieved by using a time series model with historic averages, expected local weather and modeled PM values as explanatory variables. Results on fire smoke influence indicated occurrence of significant increases in average ozone levels with increasing fire activity. The overall effect on diurnal ozone values, however, was small when compared with the amount of variability attributed to sources other than fire. - We have demonstrated that it is possible to produce accurate forecasts of next-day hourly ozone levels in the Sierra Nevada, CA, during fire season.

Estimating contribution of wildland fires to ambient ozone levels in National Parks in the Sierra Nevada, California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Preisler, Haiganoush K., E-mail: hpreisler@fs.fed.u [USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 800 Buchanan St, Albany, CA 94710 (United States); Zhong Shiyuan, E-mail: zhongs@msu.ed [Department of Geography, Michigan State University, 116 Geography Building, East Lansing, MI 48824-1117 (United States); Esperanza, Annie, E-mail: annie_esperanza@nps.go [Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, 47050 Generals Highway Three Rivers, CA 93271 (United States); Brown, Timothy J., E-mail: tim.brown@dri.ed [Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89521-10095 (United States); Bytnerowicz, Andrzej, E-mail: abytnerowicz@fs.fed.u [USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 4955 Canyon Crest Drive, Riverside, CA 92507 (United States); Tarnay, Leland, E-mail: Leland_Tarnay@nps.go [Yosemite National Park, El Portal, CA 95318 (United States)

2010-03-15

Data from four continuous ozone and weather monitoring sites operated by the National Park Service in Sierra Nevada, California, are used to develop an ozone forecasting model and to estimate the contribution of wildland fires on ambient ozone levels. The analyses of weather and ozone data pointed to the transport of ozone precursors from the Central Valley as an important source of pollution in these National Parks. Comparisons of forecasted and observed values demonstrated that accurate forecasts of next-day hourly ozone levels may be achieved by using a time series model with historic averages, expected local weather and modeled PM values as explanatory variables. Results on fire smoke influence indicated occurrence of significant increases in average ozone levels with increasing fire activity. The overall effect on diurnal ozone values, however, was small when compared with the amount of variability attributed to sources other than fire. - We have demonstrated that it is possible to produce accurate forecasts of next-day hourly ozone levels in the Sierra Nevada, CA, during fire season.

Chronic disease prevalence from Italian administrative databases in the VALORE project: a validation through comparison of population estimates with general practice databases and national survey

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Administrative databases are widely available and have been extensively used to provide estimates of chronic disease prevalence for the purpose of surveillance of both geographical and temporal trends. There are, however, other sources of data available, such as medical records from primary care and national surveys. In this paper we compare disease prevalence estimates obtained from these three different data sources. Methods Data from general practitioners (GP) and administrative transactions for health services were collected from five Italian regions (Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Sicily) belonging to all the three macroareas of the country (North, Center, South). Crude prevalence estimates were calculated by data source and region for diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For diabetes and COPD, prevalence estimates were also obtained from a national health survey. When necessary, estimates were adjusted for completeness of data ascertainment. Results Crude prevalence estimates of diabetes in administrative databases (range: from 4.8% to 7.1%) were lower than corresponding GP (6.2%-8.5%) and survey-based estimates (5.1%-7.5%). Geographical trends were similar in the three sources and estimates based on treatment were the same, while estimates adjusted for completeness of ascertainment (6.1%-8.8%) were slightly higher. For ischaemic heart disease administrative and GP data sources were fairly consistent, with prevalence ranging from 3.7% to 4.7% and from 3.3% to 4.9%, respectively. In the case of heart failure administrative estimates were consistently higher than GPs’ estimates in all five regions, the highest difference being 1.4% vs 1.1%. For COPD the estimates from administrative data, ranging from 3.1% to 5.2%, fell into the confidence interval of the Survey estimates in four regions, but failed to detect the higher prevalence in the most Southern region (4.0% in

Electricity Transmission, Pipelines, and National Trails: An Analysis of Current and Potential Intersections on Federal Lands in the Eastern United States, Alaska, and Hawaii

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuiper, James A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Krummel, John R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Hlava, Kevin J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Moore, H. Robert [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Orr, Andrew B. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Schlueter, Scott O. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sullivan, Robert G. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zvolanek, Emily A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-11-21

As has been noted in many reports and publications, acquiring new or expanded rights-of-way for transmission is a challenging process, because numerous land use and land ownership constraints must be overcome to develop pathways suitable for energy transmission infrastructure. In the eastern U.S., more than twenty federally protected national trails (some of which are thousands of miles long, and cross many states) pose a potential obstacle to the development of new or expanded electricity transmission capacity. However, the scope of this potential problem is not well-documented, and there is no baseline information available that could allow all stakeholders to study routing scenarios that could mitigate impacts on national trails. This report, Electricity Transmission, Pipelines, and National Trails: An Analysis of Current and Potential Intersections on Federal Lands in the Eastern United States, was prepared by the Environmental Science Division of Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne). Argonne was tasked by DOE to analyze the “footprint” of the current network of National Historic and Scenic Trails and the electricity transmission system in the 37 eastern contiguous states, Alaska, and Hawaii; assess the extent to which national trails are affected by electrical transmission; and investigate the extent to which national trails and other sensitive land use types may be affected in the near future by planned transmission lines. Pipelines are secondary to transmission lines for analysis, but are also within the analysis scope in connection with the overall directives of Section 368 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, and because of the potential for electrical transmission lines being collocated with pipelines.

National Needs of Family Planning Among US Men Aged 15 to 44 Years

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbs, Susannah E.; Choiriyyah, Ifta; Sonenstein, Freya L.; Astone, Nan M.; Pleck, Joseph H.; Dariotis, Jacinda K.

2016-01-01

Objectives. To estimate national need for family planning services among men in the United States according to background characteristics, access to care, receipt of services, and contraception use. Methods. We used weighted data from the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth to estimate the percentage of men aged 15 to 44 years (n = 10 395) in need of family planning, based on sexual behavior, fecundity, and not trying to get pregnant with his partner. Results. Overall, 60% of men were in need of family planning, defined as those who ever had vaginal sex, were fecund, and had fecund partner(s) who were not trying to get pregnant with partner or partner(s) were not currently pregnant. The greatest need was among young and unmarried men. Most men in need of family planning had access to care, but few reported receiving family planning services (family planning education and care is substantial and largely unmet despite national public health priorities to include men in reducing unintended pregnancies. PMID:26890180

Approaches to Refining Estimates of Global Burden and Economics of Dengue

Science.gov (United States)

Shepard, Donald S.; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Guzmán, María G.; Halstead, Scott B.; Harris, Eva; Mudin, Rose Nani; Murray, Kristy O.; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Gubler, Duane J.

2014-01-01

Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools

An exploration of multilevel modeling for estimating access to drinking-water and sanitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, Jennyfer; Bonjour, Sophie; Prüss-Ustün, Annette

2013-03-01

Monitoring progress towards the targets for access to safe drinking-water and sanitation under the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) requires reliable estimates and indicators. We analyzed trends and reviewed current indicators used for those targets. We developed continuous time series for 1990 to 2015 for access to improved drinking-water sources and improved sanitation facilities by country using multilevel modeling (MLM). We show that MLM is a reliable and transparent tool with many advantages over alternative approaches to estimate access to facilities. Using current indicators, the MDG target for water would be met, but the target for sanitation missed considerably. The number of people without access to such services is still increasing in certain regions. Striking differences persist between urban and rural areas. Consideration of water quality and different classification of shared sanitation facilities would, however, alter estimates considerably. To achieve improved monitoring we propose: (1) considering the use of MLM as an alternative for estimating access to safe drinking-water and sanitation; (2) completing regular assessments of water quality and supporting the development of national regulatory frameworks as part of capacity development; (3) evaluating health impacts of shared sanitation; (4) using a more equitable presentation of countries' performances in providing improved services.

Emission and costs up to and including 2030 for the current environmental policy. Background information for the National Environmental Outlook 5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Wee, G.P.; Kuijpers-Linde, M.A.J.; Van Gerwen, O.J.

2001-03-01

Every four years the Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) publishes an Environmental Outlook in preparation for the National Environmental Policy Plan (NEPP). The fifth National Environmental Outlook (NEOS) describes developments in the quality of the environment in the Netherlands for 2000-2030 against a background of developments on the European and global scales. The two macro-economic scenarios of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic and Policy Analysis (CPB) used are the European Coordination (EC) scenario and the Global Competition scenario (GC). Consequences for public health, nature and the human physical environment are also indicated. 'Fixed policy' scenarios are used in the Environmental Outlook for the Netherlands. In 'fixed policy' scenarios it is assumed that all policy measures agreed on by the year 2000 will be implemented, but no new measures taken. In this way the Outlook offers baseline scenarios that can be compared with targets and objectives to facilitate the development of new policy. The Fifth National Environmental Outlook was realised with the assistance of many other Dutch research institutes. This background document to NEOS presents estimated levels of energy use, emissions and costs of environmental measures for the 1995-2020 period. The main conclusions are: The environmental problems most difficult to tackle are climate change and noise nuisance. These problems are highly related to energy use and transportation; The policy as presented in the 'Uitvoeringsnota Klimaatbeleid', a document describing the Dutch Kyoto-related climate policy, results in a reduction of greenhouse gases of 15 Mton CO2 equivalents (GS scenario) with respect to the pre-Kyoto policy in 2010. To meet the Kyoto agreements a further reduction of approximately 45 Mton CO2 equivalents is needed. If policies in the 'Uitvoeringsnota Klimaatbeleid' are further instrumentalised and made concrete, an extra reduction of 10 Mton is possible

New national emission inventory for navigation in Denmark

Science.gov (United States)

Winther, Morten

standards for navigation, in order to gain emission improvements in line with those achieved for other mobile sources. The new fuel consumption estimates for national sea transport are regarded as much more accurate than the DEA fuel sales data used previously, and the recommendation for DEA is to replace their current fuel sales figures by the new estimates calculated in this project. Such updated fuel consumption time series for national sea transport will lead, in turn, to changes in the energy statistics for fisheries (gas oil) and industry (heavy fuel oil), so the national energy balance can remain unchanged. For international transport, fuel sales data as such are regarded as highly accurate for Denmark, since they are compiled from audited information from the Danish oil suppliers, and the inventory approach follows good practice for the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Changes (UNFCCC) and United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) convention, when fleet activity data are missing. However, in order to make inventory upgrades and to support Danish policymakers in bunker emissions allocation, fleet activity-based estimates calculated in a further project would be useful.

Testing the Efficacy of Alcohol Labels with Standard Drink Information and National Drinking Guidelines on Consumers' Ability to Estimate Alcohol Consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Hobin, Erin; Vallance, Kate; Zuo, Fei; Stockwell, Tim; Rosella, Laura; Simniceanu, Alice; White, Christine; Hammond, David

2018-01-01

Despite the introduction of national drinking guidelines in Canada, there is limited public knowledge of them and low understanding of 'standard drinks (SDs)' which limits the likelihood of guidelines affecting drinking behaviour. This study tests the efficacy of alcohol labels with SD information and Canada's Low-Risk Drinking Guidelines (LRDGs) as compared to %ABV labels on consumers' ability to estimate alcohol intake. It also examines the label size and format that best supports adults' ability to make informed drinking choices. This research consisted of a between-groups experiment (n = 2016) in which participants each viewed one of six labels. Using an online survey, participants viewed an alcohol label and were asked to estimate: (a) the amount in a SD; (b) the number of SDs in an alcohol container and (c) the number of SDs to consume to reach the recommended daily limit in Canada's LRDG. Results indicated that labels with SD and LRDG information facilitated more accurate estimates of alcohol consumption and awareness of safer drinking limits across different beverage types (12.6% to 58.9% increase in accuracy), and labels were strongly supported among the majority (66.2%) of participants. Labels with SD and LRDG information constitute a more efficacious means of supporting accurate estimates of alcohol consumption than %ABV labels, and provide evidence to inform potential changes to alcohol labelling regulations. Further research testing labels in real-world settings is needed. Results indicate that the introduction of enhanced alcohol labels combining standard drink information and national drinking guidelines may be an effective way to improve drinkers' ability to accurately assess alcohol consumption and monitor intake relative to guidelines. Overall support for enhanced labels suggests probable acceptability of introduction at a population level. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Denmark's National Inventory Report 2018

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Plejdrup, Marlene Schmidt; Winther, Morten

The report documents the methodologies and data used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions from Denmark for the reporting obligations under the European Union, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.......The report documents the methodologies and data used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions from Denmark for the reporting obligations under the European Union, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol....

Estimation of current density distribution under electrodes for external defibrillation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Papazov Sava P

2002-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Transthoracic defibrillation is the most common life-saving technique for the restoration of the heart rhythm of cardiac arrest victims. The procedure requires adequate application of large electrodes on the patient chest, to ensure low-resistance electrical contact. The current density distribution under the electrodes is non-uniform, leading to muscle contraction and pain, or risks of burning. The recent introduction of automatic external defibrillators and even wearable defibrillators, presents new demanding requirements for the structure of electrodes. Method and Results Using the pseudo-elliptic differential equation of Laplace type with appropriate boundary conditions and applying finite element method modeling, electrodes of various shapes and structure were studied. The non-uniformity of the current density distribution was shown to be moderately improved by adding a low resistivity layer between the metal and tissue and by a ring around the electrode perimeter. The inclusion of openings in long-term wearable electrodes additionally disturbs the current density profile. However, a number of small-size perforations may result in acceptable current density distribution. Conclusion The current density distribution non-uniformity of circular electrodes is about 30% less than that of square-shaped electrodes. The use of an interface layer of intermediate resistivity, comparable to that of the underlying tissues, and a high-resistivity perimeter ring, can further improve the distribution. The inclusion of skin aeration openings disturbs the current paths, but an appropriate selection of number and size provides a reasonable compromise.

Current energy situation affecting national economy, security, and psyche

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blundell, H.; Culbreath, H.L.

1979-01-01

Nuclear energy should be perceived by Americans as the energy option that can fill the gap left by petroleum shortages. Opposition to nuclear power symbolizes a drive to slow economic growth and return to a decentralized society, but it overlooks the implications that not going nuclear will have for the economy and national security. The General Accounting Office plotted the consequences for three scenarios and concluded that only nuclear power can provide enough domestic energy to meet projected electrical needs. The impact of higher energy prices that will follow energy-supply shortages will result in social change and in a decline in national security. The issues of import dependence, proliferation, economic competition, and morality are not valid reasons to forego nuclear development because the connections are not valid

Towards a Novel Integrated Approach for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Support of International Agreements

Science.gov (United States)

Reimann, S.; Vollmer, M. K.; Henne, S.; Brunner, D.; Emmenegger, L.; Manning, A.; Fraser, P. J.; Krummel, P. B.; Dunse, B. L.; DeCola, P.; Tarasova, O. A.

2016-12-01

In the recently adopted Paris Agreement the community of signatory states has agreed to limit the future global temperature increase between +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C, compared to pre-industrial times. To achieve this goal, emission reduction targets have been submitted by individual nations (called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs). Inventories will be used for checking progress towards these envisaged goals. These inventories are calculated by combining information on specific activities (e.g. passenger cars, agriculture) with activity-related, typically IPCC-sanctioned, emission factors - the so-called bottom-up method. These calculated emissions are reported on an annual basis and are checked by external bodies by using the same method. A second independent method estimates emissions by translating greenhouse gas measurements made at regionally representative stations into regional/global emissions using meteorologically-based transport models. In recent years this so-called top-down approach has been substantially advanced into a powerful tool and emission estimates at the national/regional level have become possible. This method is already used in Switzerland, in the United Kingdom and in Australia to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and independently support the national bottom-up emission inventories within the UNFCCC framework. Examples of the comparison of the two independent methods will be presented and the added-value will be discussed. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and partner organizations are currently developing a plan to expand this top-down approach and to expand the globally representative GAW network of ground-based stations and remote-sensing platforms and integrate their information with atmospheric transport models. This Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS) initiative will help nations to improve the accuracy of their country-based emissions inventories and their ability to evaluate the

Mixed waste study, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hazardous Waste Management facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-11-01

This document addresses the generation and storage of mixed waste at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) from 1984 to 1990. Additionally, an estimate of remaining storage capacity based on the current inventory of low-level mixed waste and an approximation of current generation rates is provided. Section 2 of this study presents a narrative description of Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Department of Energy (DOE) requirements as they apply to mixed waste in storage at LLNL's Hazardous Waste Management (HWM) facilities. Based on information collected from the HWM non-TRU radioactive waste database, Section 3 presents a data consolidation -- by year of storage, location, LLNL generator, EPA code, and DHS code -- of the quantities of low-level mixed waste in storage. Related figures provide the distribution of mixed waste according to each of these variables. A historical review follows in Section 4. The trends in type and quantity of mixed waste managed by HWM during the past five years are delineated and graphically illustrated. Section 5 provides an estimate of remaining low-level mixed waste storage capacity at HWM. The estimate of remaining mixed waste storage capacity is based on operational storage capacity of HWM facilities and the volume of all waste currently in storage. An estimate of the time remaining to reach maximum storage capacity is based on waste generation rates inferred from the HWM database and recent HWM documents. 14 refs., 18 figs., 9 tabs

Current radiotherapy needs in SUS and estimates for the year 2030; Necessidades atuais de radioterapia no SUS e estimativas para o ano de 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Araújo, Luciane Pereira de; Atty, Adriana Tavares de Moraes, E-mail: luciane.araujo@inca.gov.br [Instituto Nacional de Câncer José Alencar Gomes da Silva (INCA), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Sá, Natan Monsores de, E-mail: monsores@unb.br [Universidade de Brasilia(UnB), Brasília, DF (Brazil)

2016-07-01

Introduction: Cancer is among the world's leading chronic non communicable diseases and, by 2030, an increase in the incidence of 54% in relation to 2015 is expected. This increase requires strategies and public policies aimed at meeting the demands for treatment, especially radiation therapy, since it involves specific equipment and human resources. Objectives: To present the current scenario of radiotherapy in Brazil, its structural and human resources, as well as to estimate the radiotherapy scenario for the country in 2030. Method: This is a descriptive study carried out based on theoretical reference and conformed from Current and projected population estimates, banks of official information systems and professional sites, and in legislation and standards that normalize and license the theme in Brazil. Result: The results obtained show that the deficit in July of 2015 in Brazil is 255 radiotherapy and human resources services of 387 radiotherapists, 546 physical doctors and 425 production supervisors. For the year 2030, the estimated deficit is 198 radiotherapy and human resources services of 235 physicians and 114 production supervisors. Conclusion: Population aging and the consequent increase in non-communicable chronic diseases, such as cancer, require public health services to plan demands for treatment. The current and projected deficit of radiotherapy in Brazil signals the urgency of strategies and public policies capable of meeting the needs presented.

National Convective Weather Diagnostic

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama.

Science.gov (United States)

Weitz, Melissa; Coburn, Jeffrey B; Salinas, Edgar

2008-05-01

This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.

Estimating Soil Organic Carbon stocks and uncertainties for the National inventory Report - a study case in Southern Belgium

Science.gov (United States)

Chartin, Caroline; Stevens, Antoine; Kruger, Inken; Esther, Goidts; Carnol, Monique; van Wesemael, Bas

2016-04-01

As many other countries, Belgium complies with Annex I of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Belgium thus reports its annual greenhouse gas emissions in its national inventory report (NIR), with a distinction between emissions/sequestration in cropland and grassland (EU decision 529/2013). The CO2 fluxes are then based on changes in SOC stocks computed for each of these two types of landuse. These stocks are specified for each of the agricultural regions which correspond to areas with similar agricultural practices (rotations and/or livestock) and yield potentials. For Southern Belgium (Wallonia) consisting of ten agricultural regions, the Soil Monitoring Network (SMN) 'CARBOSOL' has been developed this last decade to survey the state of agricultural soils by quantifying SOC stocks and their evolution in a reasonable number of locations complying with the time and funds allocated. Unfortunately, the 592 points of the CARBOSOL network do not allow a representative and a sound estimation of SOC stocks and its uncertainties for the 20 possible combinations of land use/agricultural regions. Moreover, the SMN CARBIOSOL is based on a legacy database following a convenience scheme sampling strategy rather than a statistical scheme defined by design-based or model-based strategies. Here, we aim to both quantify SOC budgets (i.e., How much?) and spatialize SOC stocks (i.e., Where?) at regional scale (Southern Belgium) based on data from the SMN described above. To this end, we developed a computation procedure based on Digital Soil Mapping techniques and stochastic simulations (Monte-Carlo) allowing the estimation of multiple (10,000) independent spatialized datasets. This procedure accounts for the uncertainties associated to estimations of both i) SOC stock at the pixelscale and ii) parameters of the models. Based on these 10,000 individual realizations of the spatial model, mean SOC stocks and confidence intervals can be then computed at

Mount Rainier National Park and Olympic National Park Elk Monitoring Program Annual Report 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Griffin, Paul; Happe, Patricia J.; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Reid, Mason; Vales, David J.; Moeller, Barbara J.; Tirhi, Michelle; McCorquodale, Scott; Miller, Pat

2010-01-01

Fiscal year 2010 was the third year of gathering data needed for protocol development while simultaneously implementing what is expected to be the elk monitoring protocol at Mount Rainier (MORA) and Olympic (OLYM) national parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN). Elk monitoring in these large wilderness parks relies on aerial surveys from a helicopter. Summer surveys are planned for both parks and are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance, sex and age composition, and distribution of migratory elk in high elevation trend count areas. Spring surveys are planned at Olympic National Park and are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance of resident and migratory elk on low-elevation winter ranges within surveyed trend count areas. An unknown number of elk is not detected during surveys. The protocol under development aims to estimate the number of missed elk by applying a model that accounts for detection bias. Detection bias in elk surveys in MORA will be estimated using a double-observer sightability model that was developed based on data from surveys conducted in 2008-2010. The model was developed using elk that were previously equipped with radio collars by cooperating tribes. That model is currently in peer review. At the onset of protocol development in OLYM there were no existing radio- collars on elk. Consequently double-observer sightability models have not yet been developed for elk surveys in OLYM; the majority of the effort in OLYM has been focused on capturing and radio collaring elk to permit the development of sightability models for application in OLYM. As a result, no estimates of abundance or composition are included in this annual report, only raw counts of the numbers of elk seen in surveys. At MORA each of the two trend count areas (North Rainier herd, and South Rainier herd) were surveyed twice. 290 and 380 elk were counted on the two replicates in the North Rainier herd, and 621 and 327 elk counted on

Advantages in using Kalman phasor estimation in numerical differential protective relaying compared to the Fourier estimation method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bukh, Bjarne; Gudmundsdottir, Unnur Stella; Balle Holst, Per

2007-01-01

This paper demonstrates the results obtained from detailed studies of Kalman phasor estimation used in numerical differential protective relaying of a power transformer. The accuracy and expeditiousness of a current estimate in the numerical differential protection is critical for correct...... and not unnecessary activation of the breakers by the protecting relay, and the objective of the study was to utilize the capability of Kalman phasor estimation in a signal model representing the expected current signal from the current transformers of the power transformer. The used signal model included...

Practical Policy Applications of Uncertainty Analysis for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gillenwater, M.; Sussman, F.; Cohen, J.

2007-01-01

International policy makers and climate researchers use greenhouse gas emissions inventory estimates in a variety of ways. Because of the varied uses of the inventory data, as well as the high uncertainty surrounding some of the source category estimates, considerable effort has been devoted to understanding the causes and magnitude of uncertainty in national emissions inventories. In this paper, we focus on two aspects of the rationale for quantifying uncertainty: (1) the possible uses of the quantified uncertainty estimates for policy (e.g., as a means of adjusting inventories used to determine compliance with international commitments); and (2) the direct benefits of the process of investigating uncertainties in terms of improving inventory quality. We find that there are particular characteristics that an inventory uncertainty estimate should have if it is to be used for policy purposes: (1) it should be comparable across countries; (2) it should be relatively objective, or at least subject to review and verification; (3) it should not be subject to gaming by countries acting in their own self-interest; (4) it should be administratively feasible to estimate and use; (5) the quality of the uncertainty estimate should be high enough to warrant the additional compliance costs that its use in an adjustment factor may impose on countries; and (6) it should attempt to address all types of inventory uncertainty. Currently, inventory uncertainty estimates for national greenhouse gas inventories do not have these characteristics. For example, the information used to develop quantitative uncertainty estimates for national inventories is often based on expert judgments, which are, by definition, subjective rather than objective, and therefore difficult to review and compare. Further, the practical design of a potential factor to adjust inventory estimates using uncertainty estimates would require policy makers to (1) identify clear environmental goals; (2) define these

Practical Policy Applications of Uncertainty Analysis for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gillenwater, M. [Environmental Resources Trust (United States)], E-mail: mgillenwater@ert.net; Sussman, F.; Cohen, J. [ICF International (United States)

2007-09-15

International policy makers and climate researchers use greenhouse gas emissions inventory estimates in a variety of ways. Because of the varied uses of the inventory data, as well as the high uncertainty surrounding some of the source category estimates, considerable effort has been devoted to understanding the causes and magnitude of uncertainty in national emissions inventories. In this paper, we focus on two aspects of the rationale for quantifying uncertainty: (1) the possible uses of the quantified uncertainty estimates for policy (e.g., as a means of adjusting inventories used to determine compliance with international commitments); and (2) the direct benefits of the process of investigating uncertainties in terms of improving inventory quality. We find that there are particular characteristics that an inventory uncertainty estimate should have if it is to be used for policy purposes: (1) it should be comparable across countries; (2) it should be relatively objective, or at least subject to review and verification; (3) it should not be subject to gaming by countries acting in their own self-interest; (4) it should be administratively feasible to estimate and use; (5) the quality of the uncertainty estimate should be high enough to warrant the additional compliance costs that its use in an adjustment factor may impose on countries; and (6) it should attempt to address all types of inventory uncertainty. Currently, inventory uncertainty estimates for national greenhouse gas inventories do not have these characteristics. For example, the information used to develop quantitative uncertainty estimates for national inventories is often based on expert judgments, which are, by definition, subjective rather than objective, and therefore difficult to review and compare. Further, the practical design of a potential factor to adjust inventory estimates using uncertainty estimates would require policy makers to (1) identify clear environmental goals; (2) define these

Current applications of optimal estimation and control theory to the LOFT reactor plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feeley, J.J.; Tylee, J.L.

1980-01-01

Two advanced estimation and control systems being developed for the LOFT reactor plant are described and evaluated. The advanced protection system, based on a Kalman filter estimator is capable of providing on-line estimates of such critical variables as fuel and cladding temperature, DNBR, and LHGR. The steam generator LQG control system provides stable, closed-loop, zero steady state error control over a wide power range and also provides on-line estimates of certain unmeasureable variables as steam generator power output and cooling capacity for operator information

Small area estimation for estimating the number of infant mortality in West Java, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Anggreyani, Arie; Indahwati, Kurnia, Anang

2016-02-01

Demographic and Health Survey Indonesia (DHSI) is a national designed survey to provide information regarding birth rate, mortality rate, family planning and health. DHSI was conducted by BPS in cooperation with National Population and Family Planning Institution (BKKBN), Indonesia Ministry of Health (KEMENKES) and USAID. Based on the publication of DHSI 2012, the infant mortality rate for a period of five years before survey conducted is 32 for 1000 birth lives. In this paper, Small Area Estimation (SAE) is used to estimate the number of infant mortality in districts of West Java. SAE is a special model of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). In this case, the incidence of infant mortality is a Poisson distribution which has equdispersion assumption. The methods to handle overdispersion are binomial negative and quasi-likelihood model. Based on the results of analysis, quasi-likelihood model is the best model to overcome overdispersion problem. The basic model of the small area estimation used basic area level model. Mean square error (MSE) which based on resampling method is used to measure the accuracy of small area estimates.

Current status of Paragonimus and paragonimiasis in Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Calvopiña

2014-11-01

Full Text Available A review of national and international publications on paragonimiasis in Ecuador, epidemiological records from the Ministry of Public Health and unpublished research data was conducted to summarise the current status of the parasite/disease. The purpose of the review is to educate physicians, policy-makers and health providers on the status of the disease and to stimulate scientific investigators to conduct further research. Paragonimiasis was first diagnosed in Ecuador 94 years ago and it is endemic to both tropical and subtropical regions in 19 of 24 provinces in the Pacific Coast and Amazon regions. Paragonimus mexicanus is the only known species in the country, with the mollusc Aroapyrgus colombiensis and the crabs Moreirocarcinus emarginatus, Hypolobocera chilensis and Hypolobocera aequatorialis being the primary and secondary intermediate hosts, respectively. Recent studies found P. mexicanus metacercariae in Trichodactylus faxoni crabs of the northern Amazon. Chronic pulmonary paragonimiasis is commonly misdiagnosed and treated as tuberculosis and although studies have demonstrated the efficacy of praziquantel and triclabendazole for the treatment of human infections, neither drug is available in Ecuador. Official data recorded from 1978-2007 indicate an annual incidence of 85.5 cases throughout the 19 provinces, with an estimated 17.2% of the population at risk of infection. There are no current data on the incidence/prevalence of infection, nor is there a national control programme.

Rip current related drowning deaths and rescues in Australia 2004-2011

Science.gov (United States)

Brighton, B.; Sherker, S.; Brander, R.; Thompson, M.; Bradstreet, A.

2013-04-01

Rip currents are a common hazard to beachgoers found on many beaches around the world, but it has proven difficult to accurately quantify the actual number of rip current related drowning deaths in many regions and countries. Consequently, reported estimates of rip current drowning can fluctuate considerably and are often based on anecdotal evidence. This study aims to quantify the incidence of rip current related drowning deaths and rescues in Australia from 2004 to 2011. A retrospective search was undertaken for fatal and non-fatal rip-related drowning incidents from Australia's National Coronial Information System (NCIS), Surf Life Saving Australia's (SLSA, 2005-2011) SurfGuard Incident Report Database (IRD), and Media Monitors for the period 1 July 2004 to 30 June 2011. In this time, rip currents were recorded as a factor in 142 fatalities of a total of 613 coastal drowning deaths (23.2%), an average of 21 per year. Rip currents were related to 44% of all beach-related drowning deaths and were involved in 57.4% of reported major rescues in Australian locations where rips occur. A comparison with international operational statistics over the same time period describes rip-related rescues as 53.7% of the total rescues in the US, 57.9% in the UK and 49.4% in New Zealand. The range 49-58% is much lower than 80-89% traditionally cited. The results reported are likely to underestimate the size of the rip current hazard, because we are limited by the completeness of data on rip-related events; however this is the most comprehensive estimate to date. Beach safety practitioners need improved data collection and standardized definitions across organisations. The collection of drowning data using consistent categories and the routine collection of rip current information will allow for more accurate global comparisons.

The US national isotope program: Current status and strategy for future success

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivard, Mark J.; Bobek, Leo M.; Butler, Ralph A.; Garland, Marc A.; Hill, David J.; Krieger, Jeanne K.; Muckerheide, James B.; Patton, Brad D.; Silberstein, Edward B.

2005-01-01

Since their introduction in the 1940s, peaceful use of stable isotopes and radioisotopes in the United States has expanded continuously. Today, new isotopes for diagnostic and therapeutic uses are not being developed, critical isotopes for national security are in short supply, and demand for isotopes critical to homeland security exceeds supply. While commercial suppliers, both domestic and foreign, can only meet specific needs, the nation needs a consistent, reliable supply of radioactive and stable isotopes for research, medical, security, and space power applications. The national isotope infrastructure, defined as both facilities and trained staff at national laboratories and universities, is in danger of being lost due to chronic underfunding. With the specific recommendations given herein, the US Department of Energy may realign and refocus its Isotope Program to provide a framework for a successful National Isotope Program

Estimation of current constriction losses via 3D tomography reconstructions in electrochemical devices: a case study of a solid oxide cell electrode/electrolyte interface

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jimmi; Jørgensen, Peter Stanley

2017-01-01

In the present study, the methodology for accurate estimations of the current constriction resistance in solid state electrochemical devices via 3D tomography reconstructions is developed. The methodology is used to determine the current constriction resistances at the Ni:YSZ anode/YSZ electrolyte...... of the electrolyte thickness. The obtained results on current constriction resistances from numerical calculations on a 3D reconstruction of a Ni:YSZ anode/YSZ electrolyte assembly is compared with existing models with analytical expressions. The comparison shows, that the assumptions of existing models are by far...

Estimating Catchment-Scale Snowpack Variability in Complex Forested Terrain, Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM

Science.gov (United States)

Harpold, A. A.; Brooks, P. D.; Biederman, J. A.; Swetnam, T.

2011-12-01

Difficulty estimating snowpack variability across complex forested terrain currently hinders the prediction of water resources in the semi-arid Southwestern U.S. Catchment-scale estimates of snowpack variability are necessary for addressing ecological, hydrological, and water resources issues, but are often interpolated from a small number of point-scale observations. In this study, we used LiDAR-derived distributed datasets to investigate how elevation, aspect, topography, and vegetation interact to control catchment-scale snowpack variability. The study area is the Redondo massif in the Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM, a resurgent dome that varies from 2500 to 3430 m and drains from all aspects. Mean LiDAR-derived snow depths from four catchments (2.2 to 3.4 km^2) draining different aspects of the Redondo massif varied by 30%, despite similar mean elevations and mixed conifer forest cover. To better quantify this variability in snow depths we performed a multiple linear regression (MLR) at a 7.3 by 7.3 km study area (5 x 106 snow depth measurements) comprising the four catchments. The MLR showed that elevation explained 45% of the variability in snow depths across the study area, aspect explained 18% (dominated by N-S aspect), and vegetation 2% (canopy density and height). This linear relationship was not transferable to the catchment-scale however, where additional MLR analyses showed the influence of aspect and elevation differed between the catchments. The strong influence of North-South aspect in most catchments indicated that the solar radiation is an important control on snow depth variability. To explore the role of solar radiation, a model was used to generate winter solar forcing index (SFI) values based on the local and remote topography. The SFI was able to explain a large amount of snow depth variability in areas with similar elevation and aspect. Finally, the SFI was modified to include the effects of shading from vegetation (in and out of

The prevalence of inflammatory back pain: population-based estimates from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2009-10.

Science.gov (United States)

Weisman, Michael H; Witter, James P; Reveille, John D

2013-03-01

To estimate the current US inflammatory back pain (IBP) prevalence using four published case definitions. Analysis of an IBP data collection instrument specifically designed for the 2009-10 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Subjects were 5103 US adults ages 20-69 with complete data. IBP prevalence as determined by Calin et al criteria, European Spondylarthropathy Study Group (ESSG) criteria, and Berlin criteria 8a and 7b. Age-adjusted US prevalence of IBP by Calin criteria was 5.0% (95% CI 4.2% to 5.8%). Prevalence of IBP was 5.6% (95% CI 4.7% to 6.5%) by ESSG criteria, and 5.8% (95% CI 5.2% to 6.4%) and 6.0% (95% CI 4.9% to 7.1%) by Berlin Criteria 8a and 7b, respectively. IBP prevalence did not differ significantly by age groups or between men and women. IBP prevalence was significantly lower among non-Hispanic black persons compared with non-Hispanic white persons for the Calin and ESSG IBP criteria. For the ESSG and Berlin 7b criteria, non-Hispanic white persons had significantly higher IBP prevalences compared with Mexican Americans. IBP is associated with spondyloarthritis. Awareness of the prevalence of IBP may be useful for planning future epidemiological studies as well as development and validation of diagnostic and classification criteria for specific clinically defined diseases.

Current applications of optimal estimation and control theory to the LOFT reactor plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feeley, J.J.; Tylee, J.L.

1980-01-01

Two advanced estimation and control systems being developed for the LOFT reactor plant are described and evaluated. The advanced protection system, based on a Kalman filter estimator is capable of providing on-line estimates of such critical variables as fuel and cladding temperature, DNBR, and LHGR. The steam generator LQG control system provides stable, closed-loop, zero steady state error control over a wide power range and also provides on-line estimates of certain unmeasureable variables as steam generator power output and cooling capacity for operator information. 12 refs

Cancer incidence estimates at the national and district levels in Colombia Incidencia estimada de cáncer en Colombia a nivel departamental y nacional

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marion Piñeros

2006-12-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To estimate national and district cancer incidence for 18 major cancer sites in Colombia. MATERIAL AND METHODS: National and district incidence was estimated by applying a set of age, sex and site-specific incidence/mortality ratios, obtained from a population-based cancer registry, to national and regional mortality. The work was done in Bogotá (Colombia and Lyon (France between May 2003 and August 2004. RESULTS: The annual total number of cases expected (all cancers but skin was 17 819 in men and 18 772 in women. Among males the most frequent cancers were those of the prostate (45.8 per 100 000, stomach (36.0, and lung (20.0. In females the most frequent were those of the cervix uteri (36.8 per 100 000, breast (30.0, and stomach (20.7. Districts with the lowest death certification coverage yielded the highest incidence rates. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of national population-based cancer registry data, estimates of incidence provide valuable information at national and regional levels. As mortality data are an important source for the estimation, the quality of death certification should be considered as a possible cause of bias.OBJETIVOS: Determinar la incidencia nacional y departamental para 18 tipos de cáncer en Colombia. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se estimaron casos y tasas de incidencia ajustadas por edad a partir de razones incidencia/mortalidad según edad, sexo y tipo de cáncer. Los casos se tomaron de un registro poblacional y se usó la información oficial de mortalidad. El trabajo se realizó en Bogotá (Colombia y en Lyon (Francia entre mayo de 2003 y agosto de 2004. RESULTADOS: El número anual de casos esperados (todos los cánceres fue 17 819 en hombres y 18 772 en mujeres. Los principales cánceres en hombres fueron los de próstata (45.8 por 100 000, estómago (36.0 y pulmón (20.0; en mujeres fueron los de cuello uterino (36.8 por 100 000, mama (30.0 y estómago (20.7. Los departamentos con baja cobertura del

Exploring national surveillance for health-related workplace absenteeism: lessons learned from the 2009 influenza A pandemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Groenewold, Matthew R; Konicki, Doris L; Luckhaupt, Sara E; Gomaa, Ahmed; Koonin, Lisa M

2013-04-01

During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did a pilot study to test the feasibility of using national surveillance of workplace absenteeism to assess the pandemic's impact on the workplace to plan for preparedness and continuity of operations and to contribute to health awareness during the emergency response. Population-based and sentinel worksite approaches were used. Monthly measures of the 1-week prevalence of health-related absenteeism among full-time workers were estimated using nationally representative data from the Current Population Survey. Enhanced passive surveillance of absenteeism was conducted using weekly data from a convenience sample of sentinel worksites. Nationally, the pandemic's impact on workplace absenteeism was small. Estimates of 1-week absenteeism prevalence did not exceed 3.7%. However, peak workplace absenteeism was correlated with the highest occurrence of both influenza-like illness and influenza-positive laboratory tests. Systems for monitoring workplace absenteeism should be included in pandemic preparedness planning.

Vehicle Speed Estimation and Forecasting Methods Based on Cellular Floating Vehicle Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Kuang Lai

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Traffic information estimation and forecasting methods based on cellular floating vehicle data (CFVD are proposed to analyze the signals (e.g., handovers (HOs, call arrivals (CAs, normal location updates (NLUs and periodic location updates (PLUs from cellular networks. For traffic information estimation, analytic models are proposed to estimate the traffic flow in accordance with the amounts of HOs and NLUs and to estimate the traffic density in accordance with the amounts of CAs and PLUs. Then, the vehicle speeds can be estimated in accordance with the estimated traffic flows and estimated traffic densities. For vehicle speed forecasting, a back-propagation neural network algorithm is considered to predict the future vehicle speed in accordance with the current traffic information (i.e., the estimated vehicle speeds from CFVD. In the experimental environment, this study adopted the practical traffic information (i.e., traffic flow and vehicle speed from Taiwan Area National Freeway Bureau as the input characteristics of the traffic simulation program and referred to the mobile station (MS communication behaviors from Chunghwa Telecom to simulate the traffic information and communication records. The experimental results illustrated that the average accuracy of the vehicle speed forecasting method is 95.72%. Therefore, the proposed methods based on CFVD are suitable for an intelligent transportation system.

Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Meijer, Johan R.; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Schotten, Kees C. G. J.; Schipper, Aafke M.

2018-06-01

Georeferenced information on road infrastructure is essential for spatial planning, socio-economic assessments and environmental impact analyses. Yet current global road maps are typically outdated or characterized by spatial bias in coverage. In the Global Roads Inventory Project we gathered, harmonized and integrated nearly 60 geospatial datasets on road infrastructure into a global roads dataset. The resulting dataset covers 222 countries and includes over 21 million km of roads, which is two to three times the total length in the currently best available country-based global roads datasets. We then related total road length per country to country area, population density, GDP and OECD membership, resulting in a regression model with adjusted R 2 of 0.90, and found that that the highest road densities are associated with densely populated and wealthier countries. Applying our regression model to future population densities and GDP estimates from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, we obtained a tentative estimate of 3.0–4.7 million km additional road length for the year 2050. Large increases in road length were projected for developing nations in some of the world’s last remaining wilderness areas, such as the Amazon, the Congo basin and New Guinea. This highlights the need for accurate spatial road datasets to underpin strategic spatial planning in order to reduce the impacts of roads in remaining pristine ecosystems.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Maskey, Manil; Cecil, Dan; Ramachandran, Rahul; Miller, Jeffrey J.

2018-01-01

Estimating tropical cyclone intensity by just using satellite image is a challenging problem. With successful application of the Dvorak technique for more than 30 years along with some modifications and improvements, it is still used worldwide for tropical cyclone intensity estimation. A number of semi-automated techniques have been derived using the original Dvorak technique. However, these techniques suffer from subjective bias as evident from the most recent estimations on October 10, 2017 at 1500 UTC for Tropical Storm Ophelia: The Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from T2.3/33 kt (Tropical Cyclone Number 2.3/33 knots) from UW-CIMSS (University of Wisconsin-Madison - Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB (the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch) to T4.0/65 kt from SAB (NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch). In this particular case, two human experts at TAFB and SAB differed by 20 knots in their Dvorak analyses, and the automated version at the University of Wisconsin was 12 knots lower than either of them. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimates about 10-20 percent uncertainty in its post analysis when only satellite based estimates are available. The success of the Dvorak technique proves that spatial patterns in infrared (IR) imagery strongly relate to tropical cyclone intensity. This study aims to utilize deep learning, the current state of the art in pattern recognition and image recognition, to address the need for an automated and objective tropical cyclone intensity estimation. Deep learning is a multi-layer neural network consisting of several layers of simple computational units. It learns discriminative features without relying on a human expert to identify which features are important. Our study mainly focuses on convolutional neural network (CNN), a deep learning algorithm, to develop an objective tropical cyclone intensity estimation. CNN is a supervised learning

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2012 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication - currently in its thirty-second edition - containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2011. The data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA's power Reactor Information System (pRIS). however, energy and electricity data for 2011 are estimated, as the latest information available from the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2009 only. population data originate from the world population prospects (2010 revision), published by the population Division of the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2011 values again are estimates. As in previous editions, projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, which make a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input assumptions as: - Economic growth; - Correlation of economic growth and energy use; -Technology performance and costs; - Energy resource availability and future fuel prices; - Energy policy and physical, environmental and economic constraints. The projections presented in this publication are based on a compromise between: - National projections supplied by each country for a recent OECD/NEA study; - Indicators of development

SNS project-wide beam current monitors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kesselman, M.; Witkover, R.; Doolittle, L.; Power, J.

2000-01-01

A consortium of national laboratories is constructing the Spallation Neutron Source [1] (SNS) to be installed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. There are signal similarities that exist in the beam diagnostic instrumentation that could permit common designs. This paper will focus on the beam current monitoring requirements, and the methods under consideration to measure beam current in various locations throughout the SNS facility

Energy-Extended CES Aggregate Production: Current Aspects of Their Specification and Econometric Estimation

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Paul E. Brockway

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Capital–labour–energy Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES production functions and their estimated parameters now form a key part of energy–economy models which inform energy and emissions policy. However, the collation and guidance as to the specification and estimation choices involved with such energy-extended CES functions is disparate. This risks poorly specified and estimated CES functions, with knock-on implications for downstream energy–economic models and climate policy. In response, as a first step, this paper assembles in one place the major considerations involved in the empirical estimation of these CES functions. Discussions of the choices and their implications lead to recommendations for CES empiricists. The extensive bibliography allows those interested to dig deeper into any aspect of the CES parameter estimation process.

Current and future delivery of diagnostic electron microscopy in the UK: results of a national survey.

Science.gov (United States)

de Haro, Tracey; Furness, Peter

2012-04-01

Electron microscopy (EM) remains essential to delivering several specialist areas of diagnosis, especially the interpretation of native renal biopsies. However, there is anecdotal evidence of EM units struggling to survive, for a variety of reasons. The authors sought to obtain objective evidence of the extent and the causes of this problem. An online survey was undertaken of Fellows of the Royal College of Pathologists who use EM in diagnosis. A significant number of EM units anticipate having to close and hence outsource their EM work in the coming years. Yet most existing units are working to full capacity and would be unable to take on the substantial amounts of extra work implied by other units outsourcing their needs. Equipment and staffing are identified by most EM units as the major barriers to growth and are also the main reasons cited for units facing potential closure. In the current financial climate it seems unlikely that units will be willing to make the large investment in equipment and staff needed to take on extra work, unless they can be reasonably confident of an acceptable financial return as a result of increased external referral rates. The case is thus made for a degree of national coordination of the future provision of this specialist service, possibly through the National Commissioning Group or the new National Commissioning Board. Without this, the future of diagnostic EM services in the UK is uncertain. Its failure would pose a threat to good patient care.

National Education Goals: Can We Afford Them?

Science.gov (United States)

Guthrie, James W.

Financial estimates for achieving the six national education goals proposed at the Charlottesville Education Summit are provided in this paper. Specific objectives under each goal, as outlined by the National Goals Panel, are assessed. A conclusion is that although the cost estimates have involved huge assumptions and sometimes wide variations,…

Estimation of Shielding Thickness for a Prototype Department of Energy National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program Transport Cask

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

SANCHEZ,LAWRENCE C.; MCCONNELL,PAUL E.

2000-07-01

Preliminary shielding calculations were performed for a prototype National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program (NSNFP) transport cask. This analysis is intended for use in the selection of cask shield material type and preliminary estimate of shielding thickness. The radiation source term was modeled as cobalt-60 with radiation exposure strength of 100,000 R/hr. Cobalt-60 was chosen as a surrogate source because it simultaneous emits two high-energy gammas, 1.17 MeV and 1.33 MeV. This gamma spectrum is considered to be large enough that it will upper bound the spectra of all the various spent nuclear fuels types currently expected to be shipped within the prototype cask. Point-kernel shielding calculations were performed for a wide range of shielding thickness of lead and depleted uranium material. The computational results were compared to three shielding limits: 200 mrem/hr dose rate limit at the cask surface, 50 mR/hr exposure rate limit at one meter from the cask surface, and 10 mrem/hr limit dose rate at two meters from the cask surface. The results obtained in this study indicated that a shielding thickness of 13 cm is required for depleted uranium and 21 cm for lead in order to satisfy all three shielding requirements without taking credit for stainless steel liners. The system analysis also indicated that required shielding thicknesses are strongly dependent upon the gamma energy spectrum from the radiation source term. This later finding means that shielding material thickness, and hence cask weight, can be significantly reduced if the radiation source term can be shown to have a softer, lower energy, gamma energy spectrum than that due to cobalt-60.

Prevalence of gluten-free diet adherence among individuals without celiac disease in the USA: results from the Continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2009-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

DiGiacomo, Daniel V; Tennyson, Christina A; Green, Peter H; Demmer, Ryan T

2013-08-01

Clinical inference suggests the prevalence of non-celiac gluten sensitivity is substantially higher than that of celiac disease in the USA. Unfortunately, there are currently no data supporting these claims. The authors analyzed nationally representative data to estimate the prevalence of adherence to a gluten-free diet among participants without celiac disease and also to characterize the demographics and general health status of these participants. The Continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2010 enrolled 7762 individuals representing the civilian, non-institutionalized, US population free of celiac disease. Participants responded to interviewer administered questionnaires regarding current adherence to a gluten-free diet. Prevalence estimates were computed using SAS survey procedures. There were 49 individuals who reported current adherence to a gluten-free diet reflecting a weighted prevalence of 0.548% (95% CI 0.206-0.889). The prevalence of a gluten-free diet was higher in females (0.58%) than males (0.37%), although this was not statistically significant (p = 0.34). Participants reporting a gluten-free diet were older (46.6 vs. 40.5 years, p = 0.005), had higher high-density lipoprotein, lower iron and lower body mass index. The estimated national prevalence of non-celiac gluten sensitivity is 0.548%, approximately half that of celiac disease. Future studies are merited in order to better understand the population burden of non-celiac gluten sensitivity.

New U.S. Foodborne Illness Estimate

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2010-12-13

This podcast discusses CDC's report on new estimates of illnesses due to eating contaminated food in the United States. Dr. Elaine Scallan, assistant professor at the University of Colorado and former lead of the CDCs FoodNet surveillance system, shares the details from the first new comprehensive estimates of foodborne illness in the U.S. since 1999.  Created: 12/13/2010 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID); National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 12/15/2010.

Reconciling medical expenditure estimates from the MEPS and NHEA, 2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernard, Didem; Cowan, Cathy; Selden, Thomas; Cai, Liming; Catlin, Aaron; Heffler, Stephen

2012-01-01

Provide a comparison of health care expenditure estimates for 2007 from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) and the National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA). Reconciling these estimates serves two important purposes. First, it is an important quality assurance exercise for improving and ensuring the integrity of each source's estimates. Second, the reconciliation provides a consistent baseline of health expenditure data for policy simulations. Our results assist researchers to adjust MEPS to be consistent with the NHEA so that the projected costs as well as budgetary and tax implications of any policy change are consistent with national health spending estimates. The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey produced by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and the National Health Center for Health Statistics and the National Health Expenditures produced by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Service's Office of the Actuary. In this study, we focus on the personal health care (PHC) sector, which includes the goods and services rendered to treat or prevent a specific disease or condition in an individual. The official 2007 NHEA estimate for PHC spending is $1,915 billion and the MEPS estimate is $1,126 billion. Adjusting the NHEA estimates for differences in underlying populations, covered services, and other measurement concepts reduces the NHEA estimate for 2007 to $1,366 billion. As a result, MEPS is $240 billion, or 17.6 percent, less than the adjusted NHEA total.

Electronic voltage and current transformers testing device.

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Feng; Chen, Ruimin; Xiao, Yong; Sun, Weiming

2012-01-01

A method for testing electronic instrument transformers is described, including electronic voltage and current transformers (EVTs, ECTs) with both analog and digital outputs. A testing device prototype is developed. It is based on digital signal processing of the signals that are measured at the secondary outputs of the tested transformer and the reference transformer when the same excitation signal is fed to their primaries. The test that estimates the performance of the prototype has been carried out at the National Centre for High Voltage Measurement and the prototype is approved for testing transformers with precision class up to 0.2 at the industrial frequency (50 Hz or 60 Hz). The device is suitable for on-site testing due to its high accuracy, simple structure and low-cost hardware.

Comparison of remote sensing and fixed-site monitoring approaches for examining air pollution and health in a national study population

Science.gov (United States)

Prud'homme, Genevieve; Dobbin, Nina A.; Sun, Liu; Burnett, Richard T.; Martin, Randall V.; Davidson, Andrew; Cakmak, Sabit; Villeneuve, Paul J.; Lamsal, Lok N.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Peters, Paul A.; Johnson, Markey

2013-12-01

Satellite remote sensing (RS) has emerged as a cutting edge approach for estimating ground level ambient air pollution. Previous studies have reported a high correlation between ground level PM2.5 and NO2 estimated by RS and measurements collected at regulatory monitoring sites. The current study examined associations between air pollution and adverse respiratory and allergic health outcomes using multi-year averages of NO2 and PM2.5 from RS and from regulatory monitoring. RS estimates were derived using satellite measurements from OMI, MODIS, and MISR instruments. Regulatory monitoring data were obtained from Canada's National Air Pollution Surveillance Network. Self-reported prevalence of doctor-diagnosed asthma, current asthma, allergies, and chronic bronchitis were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey (a national sample of individuals 12 years of age and older). Multi-year ambient pollutant averages were assigned to each study participant based on their six digit postal code at the time of health survey, and were used as a marker for long-term exposure to air pollution. RS derived estimates of NO2 and PM2.5 were associated with 6-10% increases in respiratory and allergic health outcomes per interquartile range (3.97 μg m-3 for PM2.5 and 1.03 ppb for NO2) among adults (aged 20-64) in the national study population. Risk estimates for air pollution and respiratory/allergic health outcomes based on RS were similar to risk estimates based on regulatory monitoring for areas where regulatory monitoring data were available (within 40 km of a regulatory monitoring station). RS derived estimates of air pollution were also associated with adverse health outcomes among participants residing outside the catchment area of the regulatory monitoring network (p health among participants living outside the catchment area for regulatory monitoring suggest that RS can provide useful estimates of long-term ambient air pollution in epidemiologic studies. This is

[Methods and Applications to estimate the conversion factor of Resource-Based Relative Value Scale for nurse-midwife's delivery service in the national health insurance].

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jinhyun; Jung, Yoomi

2009-08-01

This paper analyzed alternative methods of calculating the conversion factor for nurse-midwife's delivery services in the national health insurance and estimated the optimal reimbursement level for the services. A cost accounting model and Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) model were developed to estimate the conversion factor of Resource-Based Relative Value Scale (RBRVS) for nurse-midwife's services, depending on the scope of revenue considered in financial analysis. The data and sources from the government and the financial statements from nurse-midwife clinics were used in analysis. The cost accounting model and SGR model showed a 17.6-37.9% increase and 19.0-23.6% increase, respectively, in nurse-midwife fee for delivery services in the national health insurance. The SGR model measured an overall trend of medical expenditures rather than an individual financial status of nurse-midwife clinics, and the cost analysis properly estimated the level of reimbursement for nurse-midwife's services. Normal vaginal delivery in nurse-midwife clinics is considered cost-effective in terms of insurance financing. Upon a declining share of health expenditures on midwife clinics, designing a reimbursement strategy for midwife's services could be an opportunity as well as a challenge when it comes to efficient resource allocation.

Site Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates and Professional Judgement

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, B. D.; Kao, S. C.; Kanney, J. F.; Quinlan, K. R.; DeNeale, S. T.

2015-12-01

State and federal regulatory authorities currently rely upon the US National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs) to determine probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates (i.e., rainfall depths and durations) for estimating flooding hazards for relatively broad regions in the US. PMP estimates for the contributing watersheds upstream of vulnerable facilities are used to estimate riverine flooding hazards while site-specific estimates for small water sheds are appropriate for individual facilities such as nuclear power plants. The HMRs are often criticized due to their limitations on basin size, questionable applicability in regions affected by orographic effects, their lack of consist methods, and generally by their age. HMR-51 for generalized PMP estimates for the United States east of the 105th meridian, was published in 1978 and is sometimes perceived as overly conservative. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is currently reviewing several flood hazard evaluation reports that rely on site specific PMP estimates that have been commercially developed. As such, NRC has recently investigated key areas of expert judgement via a generic audit and one in-depth site specific review as they relate to identifying and quantifying actual and potential storm moisture sources, determining storm transposition limits, and adjusting available moisture during storm transposition. Though much of the approach reviewed was considered a logical extension of HMRs, two key points of expert judgement stood out for further in-depth review. The first relates primarily to small storms and the use of a heuristic for storm representative dew point adjustment developed for the Electric Power Research Institute by North American Weather Consultants in 1993 in order to harmonize historic storms for which only 12 hour dew point data was available with more recent storms in a single database. The second issue relates to the use of climatological averages for spatially

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

Science.gov (United States)

Cherry, S.; White, G.C.; Keating, K.A.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

2007-01-01

Current management of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

The prevalence of discrimination across racial groups in contemporary America: Results from a nationally representative sample of adults.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian B Boutwell

Full Text Available A large body of social science research is devoted to understanding the causes and correlates of discrimination. Comparatively less effort has been aimed at providing a general prevalence estimate of discrimination using a nationally representative sample. The current study is intended to offer such an estimate using a large sample of American respondents (N = 14,793 while also exploring perceptions regarding why respondents felt they were discriminated against. The results provide a broad estimate of self-reported discrimination experiences-an event that was only reported by about one-quarter of all sample members-across racial and ethnic categories.

The prevalence of discrimination across racial groups in contemporary America: Results from a nationally representative sample of adults

Science.gov (United States)

Nedelec, Joseph L.; Winegard, Bo; Shackelford, Todd; Beaver, Kevin M.; Vaughn, Michael; Barnes, J. C.; Wright, John P.

2017-01-01

A large body of social science research is devoted to understanding the causes and correlates of discrimination. Comparatively less effort has been aimed at providing a general prevalence estimate of discrimination using a nationally representative sample. The current study is intended to offer such an estimate using a large sample of American respondents (N = 14,793) while also exploring perceptions regarding why respondents felt they were discriminated against. The results provide a broad estimate of self-reported discrimination experiences—an event that was only reported by about one-quarter of all sample members—across racial and ethnic categories. PMID:28837680

Estimating the global clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 2007.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon I Hay

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches.In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales. Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349-552 million clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC, and Myanmar (Burma, where 1.405 billion people are at risk. Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national estimates were ranked

An algorithm for estimating aerosol optical depth from HIMAWARI-8 data over Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kwon Ho

2016-04-01

The paper presents currently developing algorithm for aerosol detection and retrieval over ocean for the next generation geostationary satellite, HIMAWARI-8. Enhanced geostationary remote sensing observations are now enables for aerosol retrieval of dust, smoke, and ash, which began a new era of geostationary aerosol observations. Sixteen channels of the Advanced HIMAWARI Imager (AHI) onboard HIMAWARI-8 offer capabilities for aerosol remote sensing similar to those currently provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Aerosols were estimated in detection processing from visible and infrared channel radiances, and in retrieval processing using the inversion-optimization of satellite-observed radiances with those calculated from radiative transfer model. The retrievals are performed operationally every ten minutes for pixel sizes of ~8 km. The algorithm currently under development uses a multichannel approach to estimate the effective radius, aerosol optical depth (AOD) simultaneously. The instantaneous retrieved AOD is evaluated by the MODIS level 2 operational aerosol products (C006), and the daily retrieved AOD was compared with ground-based measurements from the AERONET databases. The results show that the detection of aerosol and estimated AOD are in good agreement with the MODIS data and ground measurements with a correlation coefficient of ˜0.90 and a bias of 4%. These results suggest that the proposed method applied to the HIMAWARI-8 satellite data can accurately estimate continuous AOD. Acknowledgments This work was supported by "Development of Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Ground Segment(NMSC-2014-01)" program funded by National Meteorological Satellite Centre(NMSC) of Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA).

Healthcare financing in Syria: satisfaction with the current system and the role of national health insurance--a qualitative study of householders' views.

Science.gov (United States)

Mershed, Mania; Busse, Reinhard; van Ginneken, Ewout

2012-01-01

This study aims to identify the satisfaction with the current public health system and health benefit schemes, examine willingness to participate in national health insurance and review expectations and preferences of national health insurance. To this end, qualitative semi-structured interviews were carried out with 19 Syrian householders. Our results show that a need for health reform exists and that Syrian people are willing to support a national health insurance scheme if some key issues are properly addressed. Funding of the scheme is a major concern and should take into account the ability to pay and help the poor. In addition, waiting times should be shortened and sufficient coverage guaranteed. On the whole, the people would support a national health insurance with national pooling and purchasing under a public set-up, but important concerns of such a system regarding corruption and inefficiency were voiced too. Installing a quasi non-governmental organisation as manager of the insurance system under the stewardship of the Ministry of Health could provide a compromise acceptable to the people. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Coverage of alcohol consumption by national surveys in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Probst, Charlotte; Shuper, Paul A; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Evidence suggests that adult per-capita alcohol consumption, as estimated from self-reports of nationally representative surveys, underestimates 'true' consumption, as measured as the sum of recorded and unrecorded consumption. The proportion of total adult alcohol per capita reported in representative surveys is usually labelled 'coverage'. The aim of the present paper was to estimate coverage for South Africa under different scenarios of alcohol use assessment and 'true' consumption. Five nationally representative surveys from South Africa were used to estimate the prevalence of drinking and the grams per day among current drinkers. All surveys used a complex multi-stage sampling frame that was accounted for by using survey weights. The total (recorded and unrecorded), the recorded and the adjusted total adult per-capita alcohol consumption in South Africa served as different estimates of the 'true' consumption. South Africa. Alcohol use information was assessed on a total of 8115, 16 398 and 13 181 adults (15 years or older) in surveys from the years 2003, 2005 and 2008, respectively. Two surveys in 2012 included 27 070 and 18 688 adults. Coverage of the alcohol use reported in the surveys was calculated, compared with the 'true' adult per-capita alcohol. The survey data covered between 11.8% [2005; 95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 9.3-16.2%)] and 19.4% (2003; 95% UI = 14.9-24.2%) of the total alcohol used per capita. The highest coverage of 27.9% (95% UI = 22.4-36.8%) was observed when looking only at recorded alcohol in 2003. Evidence from five nationally representative surveys assessing alcohol use suggests that less than 20% of the total adult per-capita alcohol consumption in South Africa is reported in surveys. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Estimates of emergency operating capacity in US manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries - Volume 1: Concepts and Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Belzer, D.B. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)); Serot, D.E. (D/E/S Research, Richland, WA (USA)); Kellogg, M.A. (ERCE, Inc., Portland, OR (USA))

1991-03-01

Development of integrated mobilization preparedness policies requires planning estimates of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. Such estimates must be developed in a manner to allow evaluation of current trends in capacity and the consideration of uncertainties in various data inputs and in engineering assumptions. This study developed estimates of emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 446 manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level of aggregation and for 24 key nonmanufacturing sectors. This volume lays out the general concepts and methods used to develop the emergency operating estimates. The historical analysis of capacity extends from 1974 through 1986. Some nonmanufacturing industries are included. In addition to mining and utilities, key industries in transportation, communication, and services were analyzed. Physical capacity and efficiency of production were measured. 3 refs., 2 figs., 12 tabs. (JF)

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030. 2009 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication - currently in its twenty-ninth edition - containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2030. The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclear power up to the year 2030 is presented as low and high estimates in order to encompass the uncertainties associated with the future. These estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must constantly be subjected to critical review. The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbers over the last years by international, national and private organizations are based on a multiplicity of different assumptions and different aggregating procedures, which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input data as: - World and regional scenarios of economic development; - Correlation of economic growth and energy consumption; - Assumptions on physical, economic and political constraints applying to energy production and consumption; - Future prices of different energy sources. The projections presented in this booklet are based on a compromise among: - National projections supplied by each country for a recent OECD/NEA study; - Indicators of development published by the World Bank in its World Development Indicators; - Estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power growth continuously carried out by the IAEA in the wake of recent global and regional projections made by other international organizations

Harmonizing national forest inventories

Science.gov (United States)

Ronald E. McRoberts; Erkki O. Tomppo; Klemens Schadauer; Göran. Ståhl

2012-01-01

International agreements increasingly require that countries report estimates of national forest resources. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change requires that countries submit annual reports of greenhouse gas emissions and removals by sources and sinks. The Convention on Biological Diversity requires that countries identify and monitor components...

Current National Weather Service Watches, Warnings, or Advisories for the United States

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center uses RSS feeds to disseminate all watches, warnings and advisories for the United States that are...

Current Icing Product

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Current Icing Product (CIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The CIP algorithm combines...