WorldWideScience

Sample records for current global change

  1. Global Changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    A review of the year’s international political and security situation In 2010, despite the generally stable international environment, significant changes occurred seen in international relations. This is due largely

  2. The feathered world and the global climate: Current changes; Vogelwelt und Klima: gegenwaertige Veraenderungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berthold, P. [Forschungsstelle fuer Ornithologie der Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Vogelwarte Radolfzell (Germany)

    1998-09-01

    For the avifauna, environmental conditions in northern latitudes obviously have been changing to the better, primarily in the northern hemisphere, so that bird species have been expanding towards the northern face of the earth. This has been observed by ornitologists who came to realize that more species than before remained for longer periods in their northern breeding grounds, with reproduction rates increasing and mortality during the winter seasons declining. Most of the trends observed are significant, although there also are some species whose number in traditional living environments is declining. The positive trends are attributed to the recent global warming. Should this process continue, it is expected to cause considerable shifts in the bird population, from subtropical regions up to the polar regions. At our latitudes, the populations of non-migratory birds are expected to grow, while those of birds migrating over long distances should decline. This might reduce the diversity in species over a given period, but experts expect that this will be followed by growing and lasting diversity at our latitudes. (orig./CB) [Deutsch] Fuer die Avifauna haben sich in hoeheren geographischen Breiten, vor allem der Nordhemisphaere, Umweltverhaeltnisse derart verbessert, dass sie die Ausbreitung vieler Vogelarten nach Norden ermoeglichen, vielen Arten laengere Anwesenheit im Brutgebiet erlauben und den Zugumfang reduzieren, und wiederum bei vielen Arten, die Fortpflanzung beguenstigen sowie die Wintermortalitaet reduzieren. Diese Trends sind grossenteils signifikant, obwohl auch viele Arten, vor allem Langstreckenzieher und Offenlandbrueter, starke Bestandsrueckgaenge zeigen. Die positiven Trends sind offenbar die Folge der Klimaerwaermung. Sollte sich diese globale Klimaerwaermung fortsetzen, so ist mit starken Umschichtungen der Avifauna in weiten Bereichen von den Subtropen bis in polare Regionen zu rechnen. In unseren mittleren Breiten ist die Zunahme von

  3. Globalization and the Changing Face of Educational Leadership: Current Trends and Emerging Dilemmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litz, David

    2011-01-01

    This paper has used a deconstructivist conceptual framework in order to explore and analyze the multifaceted and complex impacts of globalization on educational leadership in the early 21st century. It will be argued that globalization has had far-reaching positive and negative effects on all of the various nation-states, cultures, economies, and…

  4. Changes in the Tsushima Warm Current and the Impact under a Global Warming Scenario in Coupled Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A-Ra Choi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigated changes in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC under the global warming scenario RCP 4.5 by analysing the results from the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5. Among the four models that had been employed to analyse the Tsushima Warm Current during the 20th Century, in the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and HadGEM2-CC models the transports of the Tsushima Warm Current were 2.8 Sv and 2.1 Sv, respectively, and comparable to observed transport, which is between 2.4 and 2.77 Sv. In the other two models the transports were much greater or smaller than the observed estimates. Using the two models that properly reproduced the transport of the Tsushima Warm Current we investigated the response of the current under the global warming scenario. In both models the volume transports and the temperature were greater in the future climate scenario. Warm advection into the East Sea was intensified to raise the temperature and consequently the heat loss to the air.

  5. Amazonia and Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Michael; Bustamante, Mercedes; Gash, John; Silva Dias, Pedro

    Amazonia and Global Change synthesizes results of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) for scientists and students of Earth system science and global environmental change. LBA, led by Brazil, asks how Amazonia currently functions in the global climate and biogeochemical systems and how the functioning of Amazonia will respond to the combined pressures of climate and land use change, such as • Wet season and dry season aerosol concentrations and their effects on diffuse radiation and photosynthesis • Increasing greenhouse gas concentration, deforestation, widespread biomass burning and changes in the Amazonian water cycle • Drought effects and simulated drought through rainfall exclusion experiments • The net flux of carbon between Amazonia and the atmosphere • Floodplains as an important regulator of the basin carbon balance including serving as a major source of methane to the troposphere • The impact of the likely increased profitability of cattle ranching. The book will serve a broad community of scientists and policy makers interested in global change and environmental issues with high-quality scientific syntheses accessible to nonspecialists in a wide community of social scientists, ecologists, atmospheric chemists, climatologists, and hydrologists.

  6. The VEMAP integrated dataset for simulation of ecological responses to global change: Current climate and climate change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kittel, T.G.F. [NCAR/UCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)]|[Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO (United States)

    1995-06-01

    The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) dataset consists of inputs for biogeochemical and biogeographical models, including current climate, climate scenarios, soils, and vegetation for the conterminous United States on a 0.5 deg lat./lon. grid. The set has daily and monthly representations of climate. Monthly temperature (T) and precipitation (PPT) were derived from station records or statistically-generated from nearby stations. These values were interpolated to the grid accounting for orographic effects in an effort to make the grid-scale climate representative of actual bioclimates within grid cells; this was crucial because ecosystem responses are nonlinearly related to climate. Daily T and PPT were stochastically simulated with WGEN, and daily solar radiation and humidity empirically estimated with CLIMSIM. Equilibrium climate change scenarios were selected to capture a range of potential change from GCM experiments. Transient scenario rates of change were based on atmosphere-ocean GCM results. Mean climate, equilibrium scenarios, vegetation, and soil data are available on CD-ROM.

  7. Global Health - Cancer Currents Blog

    Science.gov (United States)

    A catalog of posts from NCI’s Cancer Currents blog on research related to cancer’s impact around the world. Includes posts on factors that influence global cancer incidence and mortality and new research initiatives.

  8. Technology and Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grübler, Arnulf

    2003-10-01

    Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book is the first to give a comprehensive description of the causes and impacts of technological change and how they relate to global environmental change. Written for specialists and nonspecialists alike, it will be useful for researchers and professors, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry (strategic planning departments) and government (R & D and technology ministries, environment ministries), for environmental activists (NGOs), and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.

  9. Current medical research funding and frameworks are insufficient to address the health risks of global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Semenza, Jan C; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-11-11

    Three major international agreements signed in 2015 are key milestones for transitioning to more sustainable and resilient societies: the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction; and the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Together, these agreements underscore the critical importance of understanding and managing the health risks of global changes, to ensure continued population health improvements in the face of significant social and environmental change over this century. BODY: Funding priorities of major health institutions and organizations in the U.S. and Europe do not match research investments with needs to inform implementation of these international agreements. In the U.S., the National Institutes of Health commit 0.025 % of their annual research budget to climate change and health. The European Union Seventh Framework Programme committed 0.08 % of the total budget to climate change and health; the amount committed under Horizon 2020 was 0.04 % of the budget. Two issues apparently contributing to this mismatch are viewing climate change primarily as an environmental problem, and therefore the responsibility of other research streams; and narrowly framing research into managing the health risks of climate variability and change from the perspective of medicine and traditional public health. This reductionist, top-down perspective focuses on proximate, individual level risk factors. While highly successful in reducing disease burdens, this framing is insufficient to protect health and well-being over a century that will be characterized by profound social and environmental changes. International commitments in 2015 underscored the significant challenges societies will face this century from climate change and other global changes. However, the low priority placed on understanding and managing the associated health risks by national and international research

  10. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  11. THE EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION DURING THE CURRENT GLOBAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabina Tuca

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The current economic crisis constitutes a serious test for the process of globalization. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of the current global crisis on economic globalization. To assess the impact of the current crisis on economic globalization, this paper examines the KOF Index of Globalization, before and during the crisis. The findings generally support the idea that economic globalization has been, in fact, weakened, after the onset of the current crisis. However, there is evidence that suggest that economic globalization has resumed the upward trend that characterized it before the crisis. Despite the fact the global crisis has shaken the process of globalization, we cannot talk of an end of globalization, as some predictions have indicated.

  12. Past and Current Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  13. Global Governance, Educational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundy, Karen

    2007-01-01

    In the last half decade, a rising literature has focused on the idea that processes of economic, political and social globalization require analysis in terms of governance at the global level. It is argued in this article that emerging forms of global governance have produced significant challenges to conventional conceptions of international…

  14. Global atmospheric changes.

    OpenAIRE

    Piver, W T

    1991-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the proces...

  15. Solar influences on global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    Monitoring of the Sun and the Earth has yielded new knowledge essential to this debate. There is now no doubt that the total radiative energy from the Sun that heats the Earth's surface changes over decadal time scales as a consequence of solar activity. Observations indicate as well that changes in ultraviolet radiation and energetic particles from the Sun, also connected with the solar activity, modulate the layer of ozone that protects the biosphere from the solar ultraviolet radiation. This report reassesses solar influences on global change in the light of this new knowledge of solar and atmospheric variability. Moreover, the report considers climate change to be encompassed within the broader concept of global change; thus the biosphere is recognized to be part of a larger, coupled Earth system. Implementing a program to continuously monitor solar irradiance over the next several decades will provide the opportunity to estimate solar influences on global change, assuming continued maintenance of observations of climate and other potential forcing mechanisms. In the lower atmosphere, an increase in solar radiation is expected to cause global warming. In the stratosphere, however, the two effects produce temperature changes of opposite sign. A monitoring program that would augment long term observations of tropospheric parameters with similar observations of stratospheric parameters could separate these diverse climate perturbations and perhaps isolate a greenhouse footprint of climate change. Monitoring global change in the troposphere is a key element of all facets of the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), not just of the study of solar influences on global change. The need for monitoring the stratosphere is also important for global change research in its own right because of the stratospheric ozone layer.

  16. Perspectives on Chemistry and Global Climate Change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zecchini, Fulvio; Tundo, Pietro

    2010-01-01

    ..., updating, adaptation, and distribution of a monograph on global climate change for secondary schools. Read more in the sidebar below. Another IUPAC project, entitled Visualizing and Understanding the Science of Climate Change (2008043-1-050), is currently underway. A project of the Committee on Chemistry Education, it treats the topic from a di...

  17. Update on global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Carol J

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change brings new challenges to the control of infectious diseases. Since many waterborne and vector-borne pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, health risks resulting from a warming and more variable climate are potentially huge. Global climate change involves the entire world, but the poorest countries will suffer the most. Nations are coming together to address what can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with inevitable temperature increases. A key component of any comprehensive mitigation and adaptation plan is a strong public health infrastructure across the world. Nothing less than global public health security is at stake.

  18. The influence of convective current generator on the global current

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Morozov

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The mathematical generalization of classical model of the global circuit with taking into account the convective current generator, working in the planetary boundary layer was considered. Convective current generator may be interpreted as generator, in which the electromotive force is generated by processes, of the turbulent transport of electrical charge. It is shown that the average potential of ionosphere is defined not only by the thunderstorm current generators, working at the present moment, but by the convective current generator also. The influence of the convective processes in the boundary layer on the electrical parameters of the atmosphere is not only local, but has global character as well. The numerical estimations, made for the case of the convective-unstable boundary layer demonstrate that the increase of the average potential of ionosphere may be of the order of 10% to 40%.

  19. Future Global Change and Cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    The 11 articles in this issue explore how people respond to climate change and other global challenges. The articles pursue three broad strands of enquiry that relate (1) to the effects and causes of "skepticism" about climate change, (2) the purely cognitive challenges that are posed by a complex scientific issue, and (3) the ways in which climate change can be communicated to a wider audience. Cognitive science can contribute to understanding people's responses to global challenges in many ways, and it may also contribute to implementing solutions to those problems. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  20. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  1. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  2. Current status of the global change observation mission - water SHIZUKU (GCOM-W) and the advanced microwave scanning radiometer 2 (AMSR2) (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Takashi; Kachi, Misako; Kasahara, Marehito

    2016-10-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) launched the Global Change Observation Mission - Water (GCOM-W) or "SHIZUKU" in 18 May 2012 (JST) from JAXA's Tanegashima Space Center. The GCOM-W satellite joins to NASA's A-train orbit since June 2012, and its observation is ongoing. The GCOM-W satellite carries the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2). The AMSR2 is a multi-frequency, total-power microwave radiometer system with dual polarization channels for all frequency bands, and successor microwave radiometer to the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) loaded on the NASA's Aqua satellite. The AMSR-E kept observation in the slower rotation speed (2 rotations per minute) for cross-calibration with AMSR2 since December 2012, its operation ended in December 2015. The AMSR2 is designed almost similarly as the AMSR-E. The AMSR2 has a conical scanning system with large-size offset parabolic antenna, a feed horn cluster to realize multi-frequency observation, and an external calibration system with two temperature standards. However, some important improvements are made. For example, the main reflector size of the AMSR2 is expanded to 2.0 m to observe the Earth's surface in higher spatial resolution, and 7.3-GHz channel is newly added to detect radio frequency interferences at 6.9 GHz. In this paper, we present a recent topic for the AMSR2 (i.e., RFI detection performances) and the current operation status of the AMSR2.

  3. Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodard, C.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Stoss, F.W. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center

    1995-05-01

    This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

  4. Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) is dedicated to understanding the problems of global climate change and their potential solutions. The Institute...

  5. Global climate change and international security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  6. Global Change in the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alverson, Keith

    2004-05-01

    Many people, even perhaps the occasional Eos reader, associate the term ``global change'' with warming caused by mankind's recent addiction to fossil fuels. Some may also be well aware of enormous global changes in the distant past uninfluenced by humans; for example, Pleistocene ice ages. But was there any ``global change'' between the end of the last ice age and the onset of industrialization? The answer to this question is addressed early-in the title, even-in the new book Global Change in the Holocene. I don't suggest anyone stop reading after the title, though; the rest of the book is both highly informative and a real pleasure to read. The opening chapter tells us that the Holocene is certainly not, as sometimes charged, a ``bland, pastoral coda to the contrasted movements of a stirring Pleistocene symphony.'' Rather, it is a ``period of continuous change.'' Melodious language aside, the combination of sustained and high-amplitude climatic variability and a wealth of well-preserved, precisely datable paleoclimate archives make the Holocene unique. Only by studying the Holocene can we hope to unravel the low-frequency workings of the Earth system and the degree to which humans have changed our world. This book sets out to teach the reader how to obtain the relevant data and how to use it to do much more than showing static analogues of possible future climate states. It challenges researchers to discern in their data the effects of the dynamic processes underlying coupled variability in the Earth's climate and ecosystems. These processes continue to act today, and it is through providing an understanding of these system dynamics in the Holocene that paleo-environmental studies can make the greatest contribution to future-oriented concerns.

  7. Ecological effects of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzel, A.

    2010-03-01

    Mankind actually puts manifolds loads on our earth including stratospheric ozone depletion, rising freshwater use, changes of land cover and land use. For several of these threats, critical loads and thresholds may be already exceeded, e.g. nitrogen input, climate change and biodiversity loss (Röckström et al. 2009). The working group on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of the last IPCC report (AR4, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems, thus global fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change was detectable on all continents and almost all ocean areas (Rosenzweig et al. 2007, 2008). 90% of the significant temperature related changes in 29000 records analysed were consistent with climate warming, e.g. in warming climates earlier spring events, distributional shifts pole wards and to higher altitudes, or community changes with reduced cold adapted species were observed. These impacts, already visible and only related to less than 1°C global warming, allow a limited glance at future changes and pressures on our ecosystems, as the rate of warming may accelerate and will be linked to stronger and more frequent extreme events. Vegetation is an important component of the climate system, part of biogeochemical cycles and the lower boundary of GCMs characterised by certain albedo and roughness. Thus, climate change impacts on vegetation exert feedbacks. The most striking and challenging problems in analysing climate change impacts on ecosystems are related to cases where one would expect major changes due to warming however there is reduced, limited or no reaction in the observed systems. This feature is known as divergence problem in tree ring research, called resilience in ecosystem dynamics or might be simply a time-lag or environmental monitoring problem. However, there are various other pressures by global change, e.g. land use change or pollution, leading

  8. Climate change and the global malaria recession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gething, Peter W; Smith, David L; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

    2010-05-20

    The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity proposed under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.

  9. Climate change and agricultural production | Offiong | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change and agricultural production. ... Abstract. The threat of global environmental change has tended to focus on the possible impacts of a changing environment on agriculture and the implications for global food security. From a ...

  10. Engineering paradigms and anthropogenic global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohle, Martin

    2016-04-01

    This essay discusses 'paradigms' as means to conceive anthropogenic global change. Humankind alters earth-systems because of the number of people, the patterns of consumption of resources, and the alterations of environments. This process of anthropogenic global change is a composite consisting of societal (in the 'noosphere') and natural (in the 'bio-geosphere') features. Engineering intercedes these features; e.g. observing stratospheric ozone depletion has led to understanding it as a collateral artefact of a particular set of engineering choices. Beyond any specific use-case, engineering works have a common function; e.g. civil-engineering intersects economic activity and geosphere. People conceive their actions in the noosphere including giving purpose to their engineering. The 'noosphere' is the ensemble of social, cultural or political concepts ('shared subjective mental insights') of people. Among people's concepts are the paradigms how to shape environments, production systems and consumption patterns given their societal preferences. In that context, engineering is a means to implement a given development path. Four paradigms currently are distinguishable how to make anthropogenic global change happening. Among the 'engineering paradigms' for anthropogenic global change, 'adaptation' is a paradigm for a business-as-usual scenario and steady development paths of societies. Applying this paradigm implies to forecast the change to come, to appropriately design engineering works, and to maintain as far as possible the current production and consumption patterns. An alternative would be to adjust incrementally development paths of societies, namely to 'dovetail' anthropogenic and natural fluxes of matter and energy. To apply that paradigm research has to identify 'natural boundaries', how to modify production and consumption patterns, and how to tackle process in the noosphere to render alterations of common development paths acceptable. A further alternative

  11. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  12. Seagrass meadows in a globally changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unsworth, Richard K F; van Keulen, Mike; Coles, Rob G

    2014-06-30

    Seagrass meadows are valuable ecosystem service providers that are now being lost globally at an unprecedented rate, with water quality and other localised stressors putting their future viability in doubt. It is therefore critical that we learn more about the interactions between seagrass meadows and future environmental change in the anthropocene. This needs to be with particular reference to the consequences of poor water quality on ecosystem resilience and the effects of change on trophic interactions within the food web. Understanding and predicting the response of seagrass meadows to future environmental change requires an understanding of the natural long-term drivers of change and how these are currently influenced by anthropogenic stress. Conservation management of coastal and marine ecosystems now and in the future requires increased knowledge of how seagrass meadows respond to environmental change, and how they can be managed to be resilient to these changes. Finding solutions to such issues also requires recognising people as part of the social-ecological system. This special issue aims to further enhance this knowledge by bringing together global expertise across this field. The special issues considers issues such as ecosystem service delivery of seagrass meadows, the drivers of long-term seagrass change and the socio-economic consequences of environmental change to seagrass.

  13. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  14. Global Ocean Currents Database (GOCD) (NCEI Accession 0093183)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ocean Currents Database (GOCD) is a collection of quality controlled ocean current measurements such as observed current direction and speed obtained from...

  15. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  16. Global change research: Science and policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change.

  17. Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimoda, Haruhisa

    In order to meet the requirements of Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) as well as to continue the ADEOS and ADEOS2 missions, JAXA is now planning the GCOM mission which is composed of a series of satellites. There are two series of satellites, and they are now called GCOM-W and GCOM-C satellites. Both series are composed of 3 satellites with 5 years lifetime. Hence, 13 years of continuous observation can be assured with 1 year overlaps. The first satellite of GCOM-W will be launched in fiscal 2011 while the first one of GCOM-C will be launched in fiscal 2013. In regard to global warming, the GCOM intends the measurement of most factors involved in the energy and water cycle and material cycle, which are the main mechanisms determining climate change, and also analysis of the relevant processes. Within the material cycle, measurement of the carbon cycle is a key subject. In this particular field, the GCOM aims at estimating the primary production as well as carbon flux based on measurement data on land vegetation and phytoplankton. In regard to changes of the land environment, the measuring subjects are tropical forests and the global distribution of vegetation and its changes. In regard to the cryosphere, the sea ice concentration and snow coverage are measured and their interaction with the climate is analyzed. GCOM-W1 will carry AMSR2 (AMSR F/O). AMSR2 will be very similar to AMSR on ADEOS2 and AMSR-E on EOS-Aqua with some modifications. The aperture of AMSR2 is 2m, and AMSR2 will have more accurate hot load than AMSR. Two kinds of modification are intro-duced. One is to use an actively controlled thermal reflector over the hot load. This reflector is called a temperature controlled plate (TCP). Another modification is to shield the ambient emissions. GCOM-C1 will carry GLI F/O (called the second generation GLI : SGLI). The SGLI will be rather different from GLI on ADEOS2. The main targets of SGLI are atmospheric aerosols, coastal zone and land

  18. Towards an integrated global framework to assess the impacts of land use and management change on soil carbon: current capability and future vision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smith, P.; Davies, C.A.; Ogle, S.; Zanchi, G.; Bellarby, J.; Bird, N.; Boddey, R.M.; McNamara, N.P.; Powlson, D.; Cowie, A.; Noordwijk, van M.; Davis, S.C.; Richter, de D.B.; Kryzanowski, L.; Wijk, van M.T.; Stuart, J.; Kirton, A.; Eggar, D.; Newton_Cross, G.; Adhya, T.K.; Braimoh, A.K.

    2012-01-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 methodologies commonly underpin project-scale carbon accounting for changes in land use and management and are used in frameworks for Life Cycle Assessment and carbon footprinting of food and energy crops. These methodologies were intended for

  19. Fungal symbionts alter plant responses to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kivlin, Stephanie N; Emery, Sarah M; Rudgers, Jennifer A

    2013-07-01

    While direct plant responses to global change have been well characterized, indirect plant responses to global change, via altered species interactions, have received less attention. Here, we examined how plants associated with four classes of fungal symbionts (class I leaf endophytes [EF], arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi [AMF], ectomycorrhizal fungi [ECM], and dark septate endophytes [DSE]) responded to four global change factors (enriched CO2, drought, N deposition, and warming). We performed a meta-analysis of 434 studies spanning 174 publications to search for generalizable trends in responses of plant-fungal symbioses to future environments. Specifically, we addressed the following questions: (1) Can fungal symbionts ameliorate responses of plants to global change? (2) Do fungal symbiont groups differ in the degree to which they modify plant response to global change? (3) Do particular global change factors affect plant-fungal symbioses more than others? In all global change scenarios, except elevated CO2, fungal symbionts significantly altered plant responses to global change. In most cases, fungal symbionts increased plant biomass in response to global change. However, increased N deposition reduced the benefits of symbiosis. Of the global change factors we considered, drought and N deposition resulted in the strongest fungal mediation of plant responses. Our analysis highlighted gaps in current knowledge for responses of particular fungal groups and revealed the importance of considering not only the nonadditive effects of multiple global change factors, but also the interactive effects of multiple fungal symbioses. Our results show that considering plant-fungal symbioses is critical to predicting ecosystem response to global change.

  20. Global fish production and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brander, K M

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of approximately 160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  1. Global panorama of energy access: Current situation, challenges and outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galichon, Ines; Lacroix, Olivier; Wiedmer, Damien

    2014-07-15

    Globally 1.3 billion people do not have access to electricity. If this figure is projected to decline 1 billion by 2030, the global population who relies on the traditional use of biomass for cooking is expected to substantially increase, from 2.6 billion to 2.7 billion people. In its commitment to energy access, ENEA published a synthesis on the current situation and the further development perspectives of energy access worldwide, a crucial issue of human and economic development and an opportunity for the private sector. This synthesis present the ecosystem of the actors involved in the improvement of energy access and the technical solutions that serve the needs of this high-potential market. The five main challenges energy access has to address are presented in this publication: energy prices, equipment financing, distribution, change of scale and environmental performances.

  2. Absolute geostrophic currents in global tropical oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lina; Yuan, Dongliang

    2016-11-01

    A set of absolute geostrophic current (AGC) data for the period January 2004 to December 2012 are calculated using the P-vector method based on monthly gridded Argo profiles in the world tropical oceans. The AGCs agree well with altimeter geostrophic currents, Ocean Surface Current Analysis-Real time currents, and moored current-meter measurements at 10-m depth, based on which the classical Sverdrup circulation theory is evaluated. Calculations have shown that errors of wind stress calculation, AGC transport, and depth ranges of vertical integration cannot explain non-Sverdrup transport, which is mainly in the subtropical western ocean basins and equatorial currents near the Equator in each ocean basin (except the North Indian Ocean, where the circulation is dominated by monsoons). The identified non-Sverdrup transport is thereby robust and attributed to the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief of the bottom (JEBAR) and mesoscale eddy nonlinearity.

  3. How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly;

    2011-01-01

    , it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...

  4. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M; Syphard, Alexandra D; Regan, Helen M

    2016-04-05

    Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.

  5. International law and global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Churchill, R.; Freestone, D. (eds.)

    1991-01-01

    If climatic change is a global problem, it can only have a global solution, which must be brought about through the development of appropriate international law. This book tackles the legal problems that are at the heart of the matter. It has chapters on the following: international law and the protection of the global atmosphere; the precautionary principle; international equity and global warming; tropical forests; development issues; the role of international non-governmental organisations; international law and sea level rise; the international legal protection of wildlife; controlling emissions of greenhouse gases; institutional and legal reponses to global warming; and the negotiation and drafting of the climate change convention. There are a number of appendices containing documents on global climate change. Seven chapters are abstracted separately.

  6. Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

  7. The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

    2014-12-01

    It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

  8. National Security and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    The uncertainty, confusion, and speculation about the causes, effects, and implications of global climate change (GCC) often paralyze serious...against scientific indications of global climate change , but to consider how it would pose challenges to national security, explore options for facing...generals and admirals, released a report concluding that projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security. This article

  9. New Views on Global Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Xiaoying; Yang Xuexiang; Du Xinwei

    2000-01-01

    Many cosmic facts , such as the earth orbit, the activity of the sun, the moon and the planet orbits and so on,may effect on geological processes on the earth including precipitation. It is a serious problem that the human being is facing with water deficiency. Global cooling and tectonic activity are the major factors of desertification and human action aggravates this process. It is time to do something to prevent the acceleration in the mature and artificial hazards. We must keep the balance of nature for sustainable development.

  10. Soil fungal community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugwitz, Merian Skouw

    Global change will affect the functioning and structure of terrestrial ecosystems and since soil fungi are key players in organic matter decomposition and nutrient turnover, shifts in fungal community composition might have a strong impact on soil functioning. The main focus of this thesis...... composition of fungi, but the effects were generally limited to the litter layer and the uppermost humus layer (0-5 cm), which was unexpected considering the ecosystem had been manipulated for 18 years. Taken together the global change experiments altered the soil fungal communities and thereby highlight...... was therefore to investigate the impact of global environmental changes on soil fungal communities in a temperate and subartic heath ecosystem. The objective was further to determine global change effects on major functional groups of fungi and analyze the influence of fungal community changes on soil carbon...

  11. Global change and the ecology of cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Nancy B; Faeth, Stanley H; Golubiewski, Nancy E; Redman, Charles L; Wu, Jianguo; Bai, Xuemei; Briggs, John M

    2008-02-08

    Urban areas are hot spots that drive environmental change at multiple scales. Material demands of production and human consumption alter land use and cover, biodiversity, and hydrosystems locally to regionally, and urban waste discharge affects local to global biogeochemical cycles and climate. For urbanites, however, global environmental changes are swamped by dramatic changes in the local environment. Urban ecology integrates natural and social sciences to study these radically altered local environments and their regional and global effects. Cities themselves present both the problems and solutions to sustainability challenges of an increasingly urbanized world.

  12. Phenology as global change bioindicator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menzel, A. [Muenchen Univ., Freising (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Bioklimatologie und Immissionsforschung

    1999-07-01

    The increases in air temperature due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect can be detected easily in the phenological data of Europe and Germany within the last four decades. Results of phenological model studies reveal that the vegetation period of trees in Central Europe could be further lengthened without an increase in late spring frost risk. The models furthermore clearly attribute the changes in springtime to changes in air temperature. (orig.)

  13. The global change challenge: a regional perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, F

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this presentation the author presents the most recent projections of future climate change over southern Africa, based on high-resolution downscalings of the global model projections of Assessment Reports Four and Five of the Intergovernmental...

  14. Editorial—Global Climate Change and Contaminants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Sanderson

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This Special Issue in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health focuses on the inter-linkage between the global distribution of contaminants and climate change. [...

  15. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. Alayne; Lehmann, Johannes; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO2-Ce, without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset. PMID:20975722

  16. The Current State of Global Military Security

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The world military security situation has entered a period of readjustment and transformation following the events of 9/11 and the ensuing war against terror. The "arc of crisis" in peripheral areas of the Eurasian continent and other regions is unsettled or tumultuous. Confronted by these new situations and challenges, military forces throughout the world have reassessed their respective strategic environment and adopted new transforming measures, which have brought about a dramatic change in military circumstances, thinking and operation in every country. More specifically, the U.S. unipolar military power has expanded, while at the same time is constrained by various internal and external factors. Worldwide military competition is becoming more complicated. Nuclear proliferation and upgrading has steadily developed, paving the way for an arms race on land, sea and in the air. Thus, the world's military situation is becoming more complex, with various factors-conflicts between unilateral and multilateral poles, cooperation and competition,readjustment and transformation, stability and instability-all interconnected.

  17. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  18. Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna [DET - Dip. di Ecologia del Territorio, Sezione di Ecologia, Universita degli Studi di Pavia, Via S. Epifanio 14, I-27100 Pavia (Italy)]. E-mail: occhipin@unipv.it

    2007-07-01

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  19. Is global warming already changing ocean productivity?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Henson

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on the global distribution of ocean productivity comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of SeaWiFS data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute global warming trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in SeaWiFS data to longer-term records from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR. We find that detection of real trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global warming. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 yr length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the global warming trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

  20. Global genetic change tracks global climate warming in Drosophila subobscura.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balanyá, Joan; Oller, Josep M; Huey, Raymond B; Gilchrist, George W; Serra, Luis

    2006-09-22

    Comparisons of recent with historical samples of chromosome inversion frequencies provide opportunities to determine whether genetic change is tracking climate change in natural populations. We determined the magnitude and direction of shifts over time (24 years between samples on average) in chromosome inversion frequencies and in ambient temperature for populations of the fly Drosophila subobscura on three continents. In 22 of 26 populations, climates warmed over the intervals, and genotypes characteristic of low latitudes (warm climates) increased in frequency in 21 of those 22 populations. Thus, genetic change in this fly is tracking climate warming and is doing so globally.

  1. USGCRP's Geocuration of Global Change Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Goldstein, J.; Newman, B.; Akamine, B.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) developed the Global Change Information System (GCIS) to provide specialists and the general public with accessible and usable global change information. GCIS focus is on the cross-cutting theme of Global Change Information that is spread across federal government repositories and the broader research community. An open source web-based resource, the GCIS provides human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various resources. GCIS's capabilities demonstrated with the release of the NCA have been extended to support a set of USGCRP Global Change Indicators and will support future USGCRP scientific reports and assessments such as the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment. GCIS provides named sources and contacts for figures, images and data sources, with the provenance continuing to the platforms and instruments or other observations on which the these documents are based. The GCIS team has been working with the U. S. Climate Data and Tools (CDAT) teams to demonstrate that by extending the GCIS ontology links can be provided between assessments, data and tools, as well as, help curate climate sub-themes such as those focused on a specific societal benefit area (e.g. health) or region (e.g. Arctic).

  2. Monitoring global change: a selection of examples

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR, Natural Resources and Environment

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available forecasts of changes in weather patterns over the next few days have reached a high level of skill, predictions of climatic fluctuations over several months and of global climate changes over several decades are difficult due to the very complex interaction...

  3. International business and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and clima

  4. Soil fungal community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugwitz, Merian Skouw

    Global change will affect the functioning and structure of terrestrial ecosystems and since soil fungi are key players in organic matter decomposition and nutrient turnover, shifts in fungal community composition might have a strong impact on soil functioning. The main focus of this thesis...... and nutrient availability and storage. By combining molecular methods such as 454 pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR of fungal ITS amplicons with analyses of soil enzymes, nutrient pools of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus we were able to characterize soil fungal communities as well as their impact on nutrient...... was therefore to investigate the impact of global environmental changes on soil fungal communities in a temperate and subartic heath ecosystem. The objective was further to determine global change effects on major functional groups of fungi and analyze the influence of fungal community changes on soil carbon...

  5. Gardening and urban landscaping: significant players in global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niinemets, Ulo; Peñuelas, Josep

    2008-02-01

    Global warming leads to shifts in vegetation types in given temperate environments. The fastest species movement is due to the globalized supply and use of exotic plants in gardening and urban landscaping. These standard practices circumvent dispersal limitations and biological and environmental stresses; they have three major global impacts: (i) the enhancement of biological invasions, (ii) the elevation of volatile organic compound emissions and the resulting increase in photochemical smog formation, and (iii) the enhancement of CO(2) fixation and water use by gardened plants. These global effects, none of which are currently considered in global-change scenarios, are increasingly amplified with further warming and urbanization. We urge for quantitative assessment of the global effects of gardening and urban landscaping.

  6. Global change and terrestrial hydrology - A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Robert E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models ae considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.

  7. Global change and terrestrial hydrology - A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Robert E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models ae considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.

  8. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  9. Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Conkright, Margarita E.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The global ocean chlorophyll archive produced by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) was revised using compatible algorithms with the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWIFS), and both were blended with in situ data. This methodology permitted a quantitative comparison of decadal changes in global ocean chlorophyll from the CZCS (1979-1986) and SeaWiFS (Sep. 1997-Dec. 2000) records. Global seasonal means of ocean chlorophyll decreased over the two observational segments, by 8% in winter to 16% in autumn. Chlorophyll in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, chlorophyll concentrations in the low latitudes increased. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond. Furthermore, the results have implications for the ocean carbon cycle.

  10. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed A. Hady

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

  11. Open access: changing global science publishing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D

    2013-08-01

    The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability.

  12. Soil bacterial community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergmark, Lasse

    /change the microbial community towards a higher fungal dominance. That could lead to a change in the carbon and nutrient flow in soil. In Manuscript 2 the impact of climate change manipulations and the seasonal dynamics of soil fungi and bacterial communities are investigated. Our results show that the soil fungal......Soil bacteria and archaea are essential for ecosystem functioning and plant growth through their degradation of organic matter and turnover of nutrients. But since the majority of soil bacteria and archaea are unclassified and “nonculturable” the functionality of the microbial community and its...... overall importance for ecosystem function in soil is poorly understood. Global change factors may affect the diversity and functioning of soil prokaryotes and thereby ecosystem functioning. To gain a better understanding of the effects of global changes it is of fundamental importance to classify...

  13. Global Monsoon and Long-Term climate Changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Pinxian

    2009-01-01

    @@ The core in the current "Global Warming" debate is how to discriminate the anthropogenic from natural warming. To answer this question, we have to know the natural trend of climate changes, an issue on which scientists' opinions diverge incredibly. Some scientists tell us that the next ice age will not come in some 50 thousands years (Berger & Loutre, 2002), but others believe that new glaciation would have been upon us several thousands years ago, should it be not postponed by early human impact (Ruddiman, 2003). Climatologists now talking on "global warming" warned about "global cooling" over 30 years ago.

  14. Pedosphere and Its Effect on Global Changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    With development of modern geoscience, particularly development of environmental sciences, the con temporary soil science is undergoing great changes in both research contents and scope. Soil is not only a certain substance or a certain independent natural historical body but also a spheric layer with peculiar structure and functions in the earth system. From the viewpoint of the geo-biosphere system of earth, soil science does deal not only with the soil substances per se but also more importantly with the relationships among soil, the other spheres and the human survival environment in view of the “pedosphere”. This is the new orientation of soil science today and will affect profoundly the studies on the human survival environment and global changes. To throw more light on this subject, the present paper intends to address the conception of pedosphere and its role in global changes. Also addressed are series of environmental issues in China and their relations to the global changes. Moreover, research orientation and priorities are indicated, including exploitation and protection of the soil resources, soil fertility and sustainable agricultural development, con struction of the ecological environment, and the material cycling in pedosphere and its relation to global changes.

  15. Changing roles of academic societies due to globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehara, Shigeru; Aoki, Shigeki; Honda, Hiroshi

    2016-10-01

    Because of the globalization of environment around the academic society, the expected roles have changed significantly. In this short communication, we present the current situation in our international activities of the Japan Radiological Society, particularly in the academic activities and clinical practice. Establishing and reinforcing international network is one process of their promotion.

  16. Global climate change and infectious diseases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shope, R. (Yale Univ. School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States))

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

  17. Aspen Global Change Institute: 25 Years of Interdisciplinary Global Change Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard

    2016-11-01

    Global environmental changes such as climate change result from the interaction of human and natural systems. Research to understand these changes and options for addressing them requires the physical, environmental, and social sciences, as well as engineering and other applied fields. In this essay, we describe how the Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) has provided leadership in global change science over the past 25 years—in particular how it has contributed to the integration of the natural and social sciences needed to research the drivers of change, Earth system response, natural and human system impacts, and options for risk management. We illustrate the ways the history of AGCI has been intertwined with the evolution of global change science as it has become an increasingly interdisciplinary endeavor.

  18. The future: six drivers of global change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gore, Albert

    2013-01-01

    .... Once we turn, though, where will we be? That is the compelling question Al Gore sets out to answer by examining the drivers of global change, connecting the dots among the social, economic, and political forces shaping our present and future...

  19. Global climate change and US agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  20. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warmin...

  1. Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Womeldorff, P.J.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

  2. Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2009-01-01

    By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need

  3. Development of Global Change Research in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, Carlos A.; Yepes, Adriana P.

    2010-10-01

    Ecosystems and Global Change in the Context of the Neotropics; Medellín, Colombia, 19-20 May 2010; Research in most areas of global environmental change is overwhelmingly produced outside developing countries, which are usually consumers rather than producers of the knowledge associated with their natural resources. While there have been important recent advances in understanding the causes of global-¬scale changes and their consequences to the functioning of tropical ecosystems, there is still an important gap in the understanding of these changes at regional and national levels (where important political decisions are usually made). A symposium was held with the aim of surveying the current state of research activities in a small, developing country such as Colombia. It was jointly organized by the Research Center on Ecosystems and Global Change, Carbono and Bosques; the National University of Colombia at Medellín and the Colombian Ministry of the Environment, Housing, and Regional Development. This 2-¬day symposium gathered Colombian and international scientists involved in different areas of global environmental change, tropical ecosystems, and human societies.

  4. Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

    2006-10-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

  5. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge.

  6. Adaptation Strategies for Global Environmental Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojima, D. S.; Corell, R.

    2007-12-01

    The global environmental challenges society faces today are unheralded due to the pace at which human activities are affecting the earth system. The rates of energy consumption, nitrogen use and production, and water use increases each year leading to greater global environmental changes affecting warming of the earth system and loss of ecosystem services. The challenge we face today as a society is the manner and speed at which we can adapt to these changes affecting the ecosystem services we depend upon. Innovative strategies are needed to develop the adaptive management tools to integrate the sectors and science necessary to deal with the complexity of effects. Developing strategies to better guide decision making related to climate change trends into changing weather patterns at meaningful temporal and spatial scales are needed, observations and prognostic analyses of climate related triggers of threshold events in ecosystem dynamics, and transfer of knowledge between science, technology, and decision makers. These strategies need to better integrate science (physical, biological, and social knowledge), engineering, policy, and economics interests to create a framework to develop strategies for adaptation and mitigation to global change and to create bridges with institutions and organizations that deal with these issues as a governmental agency or private sector enterprise.

  7. Soil bacterial community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergmark, Lasse

    ’ of climate change manipulations on soil microorganisms and nutrient availability in a Danish heathland, where the samples were taken shortly after a prolonged pre-summer drought. The major findings in the study are that warming increased measures of fungi and bacteria and drought might shift......Soil bacteria and archaea are essential for ecosystem functioning and plant growth through their degradation of organic matter and turnover of nutrients. But since the majority of soil bacteria and archaea are unclassified and “nonculturable” the functionality of the microbial community and its...... overall importance for ecosystem function in soil is poorly understood. Global change factors may affect the diversity and functioning of soil prokaryotes and thereby ecosystem functioning. To gain a better understanding of the effects of global changes it is of fundamental importance to classify...

  8. Changing Foundations for Global Business Systems Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slepniov, Dmitrij; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum; Gubi, Ebbe

    2011-01-01

    Companies are actively seeking new competitive advantages by changing the location and ownership of their manufacturing processes. This process results in increasing fragmentation and dispersion of global business systems of companies. The purpose of this paper is to identify how companies may...... improve the integration of such business systems. The paper draws on a case study of a Danish industrial equipment firm. The paper describes and analyzes the company’s operations network configurations, which lay at the foundations of the company’s global business system. It is demonstrated how...... the operations configurations have been changing over time and affecting the overall business system. The paper identifies the key determinants and outcomes of this change. Moreover, it proposes how the design of operations configurations can be improved through the development of a distinct systemic approach...

  9. Western boundary currents and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seager, Richard; Simpson, Isla R.

    2016-09-01

    A recent paper in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans connects recent changes in atmospheric circulation to poleward movement and intensification of western boundary currents. Causes and characteristics of past and future trends in surface wind stress and western boundary currents are discussed here.

  10. Critical perspectives on changing media environments in the Global South

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Poul Erik

    the changes in the media landscape continuously alter the power balance between state, civil society and market. At the meso level, these changes will be discussed in relation to the development of the different media and of a variety of new locally specific media environments, which create new spaces......The main aim of this article is to give a general overview and theoretically discuss how significant changes in the media landscapes in Global South countries alter existing spaces and create new spaces for political and socio-cultural exchange, thus changing the complex interrelationship between...... media and society. Knowing that media is only one of many aspects in current societal changes, the focus will be more on the interrelationship between media and society and less on other aspects like globalization, education and political reforms. At the macro level, the article will discuss how...

  11. Critical perspectives on changing media environments in the Global South

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Poul Erik

    the changes in the media landscape continuously alter the power balance between state, civil society and market. At the meso level, these changes will be discussed in relation to the development of the different media and of a variety of new locally specific media environments, which create new spaces......The main aim of this article is to give a general overview and theoretically discuss how significant changes in the media landscapes in Global South countries alter existing spaces and create new spaces for political and socio-cultural exchange, thus changing the complex interrelationship between...... media and society. Knowing that media is only one of many aspects in current societal changes, the focus will be more on the interrelationship between media and society and less on other aspects like globalization, education and political reforms. At the macro level, the article will discuss how...

  12. A Pioneer of Global Change Research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ One summer's day in 1984, a meteorologist came all the way from the United States to Prof. Ye Duzheng, a CAS atmospheric scientist in Beijing, in the hope of establishing cooperative research into global climate change, a field unfamiliar to most scientists in the world at that time. His proposal immediately caught the interest of Ye, who was then president of the Chinese Meteorological Society and vice-president of CAS. Prof. Ye believed it to be an extremely important issue requiring sustained and collaborative attention. Already in his seventies, he found some young researchers to work with him in the field. Two decades later, global change is now recognized as a major science branch. As a pioneer of this branch, Prof. Ye was awarded the prestigious Prize of the World Meteorological Organization in 2003, and honored with China's National Supreme S&T Award in 2005.

  13. Global change and climate-vegetation classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Three phrases of the quantitative study of climate-vegetation classification and their characteristics are presented based on the review of advance in climate-vegetation interaction, a key issue of "global change and terrestrial ecosystems (GCTE)" which is the core project of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP): (ⅰ) characterized by the correlation between natural vegetation types and climate; (ⅱ) characterized by climatic indices which have obviously been restricted to plant ecophysiology; (ⅲ) characterized by coupling both structure and function of vegetation. Thus, the prospective of climate-vegetation classification for global change study in China was proposed, especially the study coupling climate-vegetation classification models with atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) was emphasized.

  14. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  15. Global environmental change and sustainable development

    OpenAIRE

    Pardo Buendía, Mercedes

    2008-01-01

    The UC3M group of “Global environmental change and sustainable development: social trends and emerging policies” offers its experience on the following fields: • Sustainable Development. • Environmental Education. • Agenda 21. • Sustainable Cities and Sustainable Land Planning. • Environmental Impact Evaluation. • Sustainable Transport and Mobility. • Social Management and Saving Policies (energy, waste, water, noise). Within this framework, the work of this research g...

  16. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    Probably long term, the single most important issue we face as a global community.” Cited in sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/ prometheus /archives/climate_ change...Surface Temperature Monitoring for Malaria Early Warning in Botswana,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 73, No. 1, 2005, pp...1950,” Tropical Medicine and International Health, Vol. 7, No. 8, pp. 657-677, August 2002. 9. Price-Smith, Contagion and Chaos. 10. E. Worral et

  17. Technologies for global change earth observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Gordon I.; Hudson, Wayne R.

    1990-01-01

    Advances in the areas of space-based observations, data/information analysis, and spacecraft/operations for the studying of global changes are discussed. Research involving systems analysis, observation technologies, information technologies, and spacecraft technologies is examined. Consideration is given to cryogenic coolers, IR arrays, laser and submillimeter sensing, large array CCD, information visualization, design knowledge capture, optical communications, multiinstrument pointing, propulsion, space environmental effects, and platform thermal systems.

  18. A DBMS architecture for global change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachem, Nabil I.; Gennert, Michael A.; Ward, Matthew O.

    1993-08-01

    The goal of this research is the design and development of an integrated system for the management of very large scientific databases, cartographic/geographic information processing, and exploratory scientific data analysis for global change research. The system will represent both spatial and temporal knowledge about natural and man-made entities on the eath's surface, following an object-oriented paradigm. A user will be able to derive, modify, and apply, procedures to perform operations on the data, including comparison, derivation, prediction, validation, and visualization. This work represents an effort to extend the database technology with an intrinsic class of operators, which is extensible and responds to the growing needs of scientific research. Of significance is the integration of many diverse forms of data into the database, including cartography, geography, hydrography, hypsography, images, and urban planning data. Equally important is the maintenance of metadata, that is, data about the data, such as coordinate transformation parameters, map scales, and audit trails of previous processing operations. This project will impact the fields of geographical information systems and global change research as well as the database community. It will provide an integrated database management testbed for scientific research, and a testbed for the development of analysis tools to understand and predict global change.

  19. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  20. Changing Conceptions of Globalization: Changing Conceptions of Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzsimons, Patrick

    2000-01-01

    Examines changing conceptions of globalization in education, highlighting new electronic information technologies that, rather than promoting homogeneity, are producing a stimulus for a politics of difference. Cyborgs and cyberspace are emerging as discourses of disunity and difference. The essay recommends a form of critical localism to challenge…

  1. Ecosystem oceanography for global change in fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cury, Philippe Maurice; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Planque, Benjamin; Durant, Joël Marcel; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Travers, Morgane; Grimm, Volker

    2008-06-01

    Overexploitation and climate change are increasingly causing unanticipated changes in marine ecosystems, such as higher variability in fish recruitment and shifts in species dominance. An ecosystem-based approach to fisheries attempts to address these effects by integrating populations, food webs and fish habitats at different scales. Ecosystem models represent indispensable tools to achieve this objective. However, a balanced research strategy is needed to avoid overly complex models. Ecosystem oceanography represents such a balanced strategy that relates ecosystem components and their interactions to climate change and exploitation. It aims at developing realistic and robust models at different levels of organisation and addressing specific questions in a global change context while systematically exploring the ever-increasing amount of biological and environmental data.

  2. Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use

  3. Northern peatlands in global climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

  4. Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Juliá

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

  5. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  6. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    OpenAIRE

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simula...

  7. Analysis of Current Global Nuclear Safety and Security Cooperation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu; Chong

    2014-01-01

    Last year, global nuclear security and safety cooperation achieved some progress. In terms of nuclear safety, too many flaws are exposed by the current severe situation of the Fukushima in Japan’s new nuclear safety regulation system, and sound the alarm for East Asia countries accelerating the regional nuclear safety cooperation. In terms of nuclear security, since the Seoul Summit in March 2012, global nuclear security cooperation has achieved new successes. IAEA has and would play the central role in pushing forward the international framework and strengthening nuclear security globally. However, there are still some obstacles to overcome in the future, which need international society to enhance communication and common understanding, especially high-level consultations.

  8. Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt A.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase

  9. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Vicky W Y; Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2016-09-07

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  10. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-09-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  11. Comment on 'Current Budget of the Atmospheric Electric Global Circuit'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Kevin T.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, three major issues relevant to Kasemir's new model will be addressed. The first concerns Kasemir's assertion that there are significant differences between the potentials associated with the new model and the conventional model. A recalculation of these potentials reveals that both models provide equivalent results for the potential difference between the Earth and ionosphere. The second issue to be addressed is Kasemir's assertion that discrepancies in the electric potentials associated with both models can be attributed to modeling the Earth as a sphere, instead of as a planar surface. A simple analytical comparison will demonstrate that differences in the equations for the potentials of the atmosphere derived with a spherical and a planar Earth are negligible for applications to global current flow. Finally, the third issue to be discussed is Kasemir's claim that numerous aspects of the conventional model are incorrect, including the role of the ionosphere in global current flow as well as the significance of cloud-to-ground lightning in supplying charge to the global circuit. In order to refute these misconceptions, it will be shown that these aspects related to the flow of charge in the atmosphere are accurately described by the conventional model of the global circuit.

  12. Global Climate Change: Role of Livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M.K. Naqvi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is seen as a major threat to the survival of many species, ecosystems and the sustainability of livestock production systems in many parts of the world. Green house gases (GHG are released in the atmosphere both by natural sources and anthropogenic (human related activities. An attempt has been made in this article to understand the contribution of ruminant livestock to climate change and to identify the mitigation strategies to reduce enteric methane emission in livestock. The GHG emissions from the agriculture sector account for about 25.5% of total global radiative forcing and over 60% of anthropogenic sources. Animal husbandry accounts for 18% of GHG emissions that cause global warming. Reducing the increase of GHG emissions from agriculture, especially livestock production should therefore be a top priority, because it could curb warming fairly rapidly. Among the GHGs, CH4 is considered to be the largest potential contributor to the global warming phenomenon. Ruminant livestock such as cattle, buffalo, sheep and goats contributes the major proportion of total agricultural emission of methane. Indian livestock system is a large contributor to GHGs and therefore also to the global warming phenomenon. Methane emission from enteric fermentation from Indian livestock ranged from 7.26 to 10.4 MT/year. In India more than 90% of the total methane emission from enteric fermentation is being contributed by the large ruminants (cattle and buffalo and rest from small ruminants and others. Generally CH4 reduction strategies can be grouped under two broad categories such as management and nutritional strategies. Although the reduction in GHG emissions from livestock industries are seen as high priorities, strategies for reducing emissions should not reduce the economic viability of enterprises if they are to find industry acceptability.

  13. Marine ecosystem responses to Cenozoic global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, R D; Turner, S Kirtland; Hull, P M; Ridgwell, A

    2013-08-02

    The future impacts of anthropogenic global change on marine ecosystems are highly uncertain, but insights can be gained from past intervals of high atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure. The long-term geological record reveals an early Cenozoic warm climate that supported smaller polar ecosystems, few coral-algal reefs, expanded shallow-water platforms, longer food chains with less energy for top predators, and a less oxygenated ocean than today. The closest analogs for our likely future are climate transients, 10,000 to 200,000 years in duration, that occurred during the long early Cenozoic interval of elevated warmth. Although the future ocean will begin to resemble the past greenhouse world, it will retain elements of the present "icehouse" world long into the future. Changing temperatures and ocean acidification, together with rising sea level and shifts in ocean productivity, will keep marine ecosystems in a state of continuous change for 100,000 years.

  14. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  15. Somali Jet Changes under the Global Warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Meijing; FAN Ke; WANG Huijun

    2008-01-01

    Somali Jet changes will influence the variability of Asian monsoon and climate. How would Somali Jet changes respond to the global warming in the future climate? To address this question, we first evaluate the ability of IPCC-AR4 climate models and perform the 20th century climate in coupled models (20C3M) experiments to reproduce the observational features of the low level Somali Jet in JJA (June-July-August) for the period 1976-1999. Then, we project and discuss the changes of Somali Jet under the climate change of Scenario A2 (SRESA2) for the period 2005-2099. The results show that 18 IPCC-AR4 models have performed better in describing the climatological features of Somali Jet in the present climate simulations. Analysis of Somali Jet intensity changes from the multi-model ensemble results for the period 2005-2099 shows a weakened Somali Jet in the early 21st century (2010-2040), the strongest Somali Jet in the middle 21st century (2050-2060), as well as the weakest Somali Jet at the end of the 21st century (2070-2090). Compared with the period 1976-1999, the intensity of Somali Jet is weakening in general, and it becomes the weakest at the end of the 21st century. The results also suggest that the relationship between the intensity of Somali Jet in JJA and the increment of global mean surface air temperature is nonlinear, which is reflected differently among the models, suggesting the uncertainty of the IPCC-AR4 models. Considering the important role of Somali Jet in the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon and climate of China, the variability of Somali Jet and its evolvement under the present climate or future climate changes need to be further clarified.

  16. Current Issues of Engineering Education under Globalized Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwang Sun

    A global world has recently expedited the international collaboration and network among engineering education societies including their scholars. The current issues of engineering education societies have been raised and discussed and those are various topics such as accreditation issues, current trends in engineering and technology education, government policies, innovations, program and project based learning, social sciences in engineering and technology education, university-industry joint programs, human resource development and engineering education, university linkage with K-12, role of engineering education in sustainable development, and the others. Among the variety of issues and topics, the hottest topic is relating to “innovations” of engineering education system. The innovative direction of engineering education in Korea has been reported along with that of USA, whose role has been one of major parts in innovation for the global engineering education system. The recent survey by IFEES (International Federation of Engineering Education Societies) has also been analyzed to consider the current three biggest challenges of global engineering education societies.

  17. Microenvironmental change as a mechanism to study global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lortie, C. J.

    2016-12-01

    Global change is a set of significant processes that influence all aspects of ecosystem functioning and often-natural services within Santa Barbara County. The sensitivity of coastal and urban systems is certainly very high. However, profound changes are also predicted for arid and semi-arid systems globally, and California is no exception. These dryland systems are less buffered by oceanic processes and typically express high inter-annual variation in precipitation and temperatures in addition to perturbations associated with long-term droughts. However, climate estimates and downscaled values can present challenges in providing evidence at the scale relevant to individual species or individuals, and the importance of biotic interactions must be coupled to these estimates in space and time. Coupled indicators of key micro-environmental measures to both positive and negative interactions between foundation species and other organisms provide a metric of buffering capacity and resilience to global change at fine spatial scales. Consequently, the primary objective of this research project is to provide both the a well-articulated, ecologically relevant micro-environmental big data measure of global change within Santa Barbara County and a coupled estimate of concurrent changes in interactions in key species within the region. Shrubs directly and indirectly buffered local changes in the microenvironment thereby functioning as refuges for other species within arid and semi-arid regions subject to dramatic global change drivers. The following major patterns were identified: (i) shrub micro-environments reduce the level of stress and amplitude of variation associated with temperature and moisture, (ii) many plant and animal species including threatened lizards are relatively more common with shrubs within the region, and (iii) the variation in the interaction patterns between species relates to the extent of amelioration provided by shrub-biodiversity complexes within

  18. Cave temperatures and global climatic change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badino Giovanni

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The physical processes that establish the cave temperature are briefly discussed, showing that cave temperature is generally strictly connected with the external climate. The Global Climatic changes can then influence also the underground climate. It is shown that the mountain thermal inertia causes a delay between the two climates and then a thermal unbalance between the cave and the atmosphere. As a consequence there is a net energy flux from the atmosphere to the mountain, larger than the geothermal one, which is deposited mainly in the epidermal parts of caves.

  19. Global food security under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidhuber, Josef; Tubiello, Francesco N

    2007-12-11

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses.

  20. The role of fish in a globally changing food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Abigail J.; MacMillan, J. Randy

    2017-01-01

    Though humans have been fishing for food since they first created tools to hunt, modern food systems are predominately terrestrial focused and fish are frequently overlooked. Yet, within the global food system, fish play an important role in meeting current and future food needs. Capture fisheries are the last large-scale “wild” food, and aquaculture is the fastest growing food production sector in the world. Currently, capture fisheries and aquaculture provide 4.3 billion people with at least 15% of their animal protein. In addition to providing protein and calories, fish are important sources of critical vitamins and vital nutrients that are difficult to acquire through other food sources. As the climate changes, human populations will continue to grow, cultural tastes will evolve, and fish populations will respond. Sustainable fisheries and aquaculture are poised to fill demand for food not met by terrestrial food systems. Climate change and other global changes will increase, decrease, or modify many wild fish populations and aquaculture systems. Understanding the knowledge gaps around these implications for global change on fish production is critical. Applied research and adaptive management techniques can assist with the necessary evolution of sustainable food systems to include a stronger emphasis on fish and other aquatic organisms.

  1. Global climate change economics and opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parrino, C.L.

    1996-12-31

    Timothy Wirth, Under Secretary for Global Affairs, recently stated that climate change is probably the most complicated scientific, environmental, economic, and political challenge in history. Developing an effective, flexible climate change policy with over 150 nations, diverse stakeholders and less-than-certain scientific understanding is indeed difficult with so much at stake. Specifically, what the author would like to address are some of the issues states are beginning to consider in response to the national and international discussions. The decisions at the national and international level, starting with the conference in Rio, and most recently in Geneva, will impact regulators directly. On July 17, 1996, the US negotiating team to the Framework Convention on Climate Change stated for the first time that it supports a {open_quotes}verifiable and binding post-2000 emissions target.{close_quotes} This, indeed, caught the authors attention. Until now, as you know, climate change negotiation was based on the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change, whereby industrialized countries agreed to a nonbinding aim of reducing green house gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. It now appears that we may soon be committed to a legally binding emission`s reduction strategy.

  2. Neoproterozoic magmatic activity and global change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Yongfei

    2003-01-01

    Neoproterozoic is a very important time in the history of the Earth, during which occurred supercontinent breakup, low-latitude glaciation, and biotic diversification. These concern a series of interdisciplinary studies involving ancient plate motion, climate change and life evolution, resulting in many forefront topics of general interest in the earth sciences. These include exact ages bracketing the Cryogenian System and glaciations, initial age and lasted duration of supercontinent breakup, dynamic reconstruction of China continents in supercontinental configurations, the nature of rift magmatism and extent of hydrothermal alteration, paleoclimatic implication of water-rock interaction and low-18O magmatism, and relationship between supercontinental evolution and global change. A number of outstanding advances in the above aspects have being made by Chinese scientists, leaving many important issues to be resolved: (1) did the Cryogenian start at either 800 to 820 Ma or 760 to 780 Ma? (2) was South China in the supercontinental configuration located in either southeast to Australia or north to India? (3) are Paleoproterozoic to Archean ages of crustal rocks a valid parameter in distinguishing North China from South China? Available observations suggest that Neoproterozoic mantle superwelling occurred as conspicuous magmatism in South China but as cryptical magmatism in North China. Mid-Neoproterozoic mantle superplume event and its derived rift-magmatism would not only result in the supercontinental demise, but also play a very important role in the generation and evolution of the snowball Earth event by initiating the global glaciation, causing the local deglaciation and terminating the snowball Earth event.

  3. The Current Global Economic Crisis: Gleaning from History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettah B. Essien

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The study seeks to demonstrate how the knowledge of economic thought could help in explaining and managing the current global economic crisis. The current economic meltdown has affected nations of the world by differing degrees but adversely. Many analysts argue that the adoption of the Washington Consensusfinancial liberalization-gave vent to the crisis. The Washington Consensus discourages government involvement but promotes the operation of the market forces in economic and financial operations. However, the financial and economic devastation caused by the current economic crisis has prompted governments of various nations across the world to intervene through massive stimulus plans in order to rescue their economies from the meltdown situation. This suggests that the role of government in the economy is pertinent, and that the market forces are no substitutes but complement. This, therefore, suggests a fair balance of the government and the market forces in the operations of the economy.

  4. Globalisation and the foreignisation of space: The seven processes driving the current global land grab.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zoomers, E.B.

    2010-01-01

    The current global land grab is causing radical changes in the use and ownership of land. The main process driving the land grab, or ‘foreignisation of space’, as highlighted in the media and the emerging literature is the production of food and biofuel for export in the aftermath of recent food and

  5. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  6. The Current Global Financial Crisis 2008-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albulena Shala

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The current global financial crisis is considered as one of the biggest crises after the crisis of the years of 30’s. The global financial crisis has affected all countries including developed and developing ones. It also has affected all the industries. Population with the low-income faced the greatest consequences. The last hope for the survival of the market economy was to undertake important steps for the nationalization of bankrupted banks and companies, thereby developing policies for the preservation of jobs. Through this analysis, we have included briefly some of the development followed the period of 2008 and onwards. A summary of statistics for some important economic indicators such as employment, exporting and importing is covered in this study as well.

  7. Climate change impacts on global rainfed agricultural land availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.

    2010-12-01

    Global rainfed agricultural land availability can be subject to significant changes in both magnitude and spatial distribution due to climate change. We assess the possible changes using current and projected climate data from thirteen general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B & B1, together with global databases on land, including soil properties and slope. Two ensemble methods with the set of GCMs, Simple Average Method (SAM) and Root Mean Square Error Ensemble Method (RMSEMM), are employed to abate uncertainty involved in global GCM projections for assembling regional climate. Fuzzy logic, which handles land classification in an approximate yet efficient way, is adopted to estimate the land suitability through empirically determined membership functions and fuzzy rules chosen through a learning process based on remote sensed crop land products. Land suitability under five scenarios, which include the present-climate baseline scenario and four projected scenarios, A1B-SAM, A1B-RMSEMM, B1-SAM, and B1-RMSEMM, are assessed for both global and seven important agricultural regions in the world, Africa, China, India, Europe (excluding Russia), Russia, South America, and U.S. It is found that countries at the high latitudes of north hemisphere are more likely to benefit from climate change with respect to agricultural land availability; while countries at mid- and low latitudes may suffer different levels of loss of potential arable land. Expansions of the gross potential arable land are likely to occur in regions at the north high latitudes, including Russia, North China and U.S., while land shrinking can be expected in South America, Africa, India and Europe. Although the greatest potential for agricultural expansion lies in Africa and South America, with current cultivated land accounting for 20% and 13% respectively of the net potential arable land, negative effects from climate change may decline the potential. In summary, climate change

  8. Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soteriades, A. D.; Murray-Rust, D.; Trabucco, A.; Metzger, M. J.

    2017-08-01

    Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.

  9. Global Sea Level Change and Thermal Contribution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZUO Juncheng; ZHANG Jianli; DU Ling; LI Peiliang; LI Lei

    2009-01-01

    The global long-term sea level trend is obtained from the analysis of tide gauge data and TOPEX/Poseidon data. The linear trend of global mean sea level is highly non-umiform spatially, with an average rate of 2.2 mm year-1 in T/P sea-level rise from October 1992 to September 2002. Sea level change duc to temperature vanation (the thermosteric sea level) is discussed. The results are compared with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the same temporal span at different spatial scales. It is indicated that the ther-mal effect accounts for 86% and 73% of the observed seasonal variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The TOPEX/Poseidon observed sea level lags behind the TSI, by 2 months in the zonal band of 40°-60° in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Systematic differences of about 1-2cm between TOPEX/Poseidon observations and thermosteric sea level data are obtained. The potential causes for these differences include water exchange among the atmosphere, land, and oceans, and some pos-sible deviations in thermosteric contribution estimates and geophysical corrections to the TOPEX/Poseidon data.

  10. Global Warming: Can Existing Reserves Really Preserve Current Levels of Biological Diversity?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Paleoecological evidence and paleoclimatic records indicate that there was a plant poleward migration in latitude and an upward shift in elevation with increased temperatures after the last glaciation. Recent studies have shown that global warming over the past 100 years has been having a noticeable effect on living systems.Current global warming is causing a poleward and upward shift in the range of many plants and animals.Climate change, in connection with other global changes, is threatening the survival of a wide range of plant and animal species. This raises the question: can existing reserves really preserve current levels of biological diversity in the long term given the present rapid pace of climate change? The present paper deals with this question in the context of the responses of plants and animals to global climate change, based on a literature review. Consequently, we recommend expanding reserves towards the poles and/or towards higher altitudes,to permit species to shift their ranges to keep pace with global warming.

  11. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  12. Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.

    This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…

  13. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  14. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  15. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  16. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurice Lineman

    Full Text Available The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV patterns for global warming (GW and Climate change (CC to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  17. Global change - Geoengineering and space exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Lyle M.

    1992-01-01

    Geoengineering options and alternatives are proposed for mitigating the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer. Geoengineering options were discussed by the National Academy of Science Panel on the Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Several of the ideas conveyed in their published report are space-based or depend on space systems for implementation. Among the geoengineering options using space that are discussed include the use of space power systems as an alternative to fossil fuels for generating electricity, the use of lunar He-3 to aid in the development of fusion energy, and the establishment of a lunar power system for solar energy conversion and electric power beaming back to earth. Other geoengineering options are discussed. They include the space-based modulation of hurricane forces and two space-based approaches in dealing with ozone layer depletion. The engineering challenges and policy implementation issues are discussed for these geongineering options.

  18. The Changing Global Context of Virtual Workforce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A. Ejiwale

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The technological revolution occurring in today’s market place has made it possible for many companies to be innovative about the way and where work is done. To get the job done, due to digital revolution, companies have turned to virtual workforce to harness the benefits of connectivity and effective information sharing among stakeholders to get the job done. More important, the success of coordinating work among a virtual workforce for profitability in a rapidly changing global environment depends on “effective indirect communication” between the leadership and the virtual workforce. This article will address the importance of effective communication as a necessary tool for the success of e-leadership, productivity improvement in virtual work environment.

  19. Tectonic Movement and Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Xuexiang; Chen Dianyou

    2000-01-01

    Glaciation between northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere were synchronous, the ice age occurred not in high but in low value of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit. Such facts went against the precession principle of the astronomical theory of ice age. The inhomogeneous distribution of climate consisted with the inhomogeneous distribution of ocean and continent. The north/south antisymmetry may be attributed to southward deviation of the thermal center and northward deviation of the mass center within the mantle demonstrated by seismic tomography. The core - mantle angular momentum makes rotational energy into thermal energy and mantle plumes erupt in the ocean bottom. The earth's deformation by tidal force makes the eruption of mantle plumes strong. They are the reason that glaciation between the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere are synchronous and the ice age occurred in low value of the eccentricity of the earth' s orbit. The tectonic movement is playing a most important part in global climate change.

  20. The LHC Fast Beam Current change Monitor

    CERN Document Server

    Belohrad, D; Jensen, L; Krupa, M; Topaloudis, A

    2013-01-01

    The modularity of the Large Hadron Collider’s (LHC) machine protection system (MPS) allows for the integration of several beam diagnostic instruments. These instruments have not necessarily been designed to have protection functionality, but MPS can still use them to increase the redundancy and reliability of the machine. The LHC fast beam current change monitor (FBCCM) is an example. It is based on analogue signals from fast beam current transformers (FBCT) used nominally to measure the LHC bunch intensities. The FBCCM calculates the magnitude of the beam signal provided by the FBCT, looks for a change over specific time intervals, and triggers a beam dump interlock if losses exceed an energy-dependent threshold. The first prototype of the FBCCM was installed in the LHC during the 2012-2013 run. The aim of this article is to present the FBCCM system and the results obtained, analyse its current performance and provide an outlook for the final system which is expected to be operational after the long LHC sh...

  1. The economics of long-term global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  2. Feedbacks and Acceleration of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, William

    2014-05-01

    The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the Industrial revolution has increased the level of atmospheric CO2 by about 45 % over that of earlier times. The increasing greenhouse effect is augmented by a series of feedbacks; most have been positive, but a few are negative. The most important are 1) Slowing of the thermohaline circulation system; 2) Decreasing Atlantic to Pacific vapor transport; 3) Increasing Arctic river runoff; 4) Melting of Arctic sea ice; 5) Periodic replacement of the Arctic atmospheric high by a cyclonic low pressure system; 6) Increased exchange of waters between the Arctic and North Atlantic; 7) Lessening of the Northern Hemisphere ice-albedo feedback effect; 8) Addition of methane from melting permafrost; 9) Overall changes in the rate of ocean mixing; 10) Overall changes in vegetation cover of land; 11) Increase in the area covered by C4 vegetation; 12) Addition of nitrous oxide from agricultural practices; 13) Changes in insect populations and their effect on vegetation; 14) Wildfires; 15) Soot accumulation on snow and ice; 16) Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet; 17) Changes in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet; 18) Closing of the ozone hole over Antarctica; 19) Decay of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet; 20) Expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice; 21) Slowing of the rate of organic matter sinking into the deep ocean; 22) Decrease in insolation reaching the surface of the Earth as a result of introduction of aerosols into the atmosphere; 23) Depletion of stratospheric ozone by nitrous oxide. The global and regional effects and relative importance of many of these feedbacks are uncertain, and they may change both in magnitude and sign with time. New and unexpected mechanisms are constantly being discovered. The uncertainties and complexity associated with climate system feedbacks are responsible for the acceleration of climate change beyond the rates predicted by numerical modeling. To add to the difficulties inherent in

  3. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

    2011-04-15

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  4. Antarctic Pliocene Biotic and Environmental Change in a Global Context Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilty, P. G.; Whitehead, J.

    2005-12-01

    The Pliocene was globally an interval of dramatic climate change and often compared with the environment evolving through human-induced global change. Antarctic history needs to be integrated into global patterns. The Prydz Bay-Prince Charles Mountains region of East Antarctica is a major source of data on Late Paleozoic-Recent changes in Antarctic biota and environment. This paper reviews what is known of 13 marine transgressions in the Late Neogene of the region and attempts to compare the Antarctic pattern with global patterns, such as those identified through global sequence stratigraphic analysis. Although temporal resolution in Antarctic sections is not always as good as for sections elsewhere, enough data exist to indicate that many events can be construed as part of global changes. It is expected that further correlation will be effected. During much of the Pliocene, there was less continental ice, reduced sea-ice cover, probably higher sea-level, penetration of marine conditions deep into the hinterland, and independent evidence to indicate that this was due to warmth. The Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone probably was much farther south than currently. There have been major changes in the marine fauna, and distribution of surviving species since the mid-Pliocene. Antarctic fish faunas underwent major changes during this interval with evolution of a major new Subfamily and diversification in at least two subfamilies. No palynological evidence of terrestrial vegetation has been recovered from the Prydz Bay - Prince Charles Mountain region. Analysis of origin and extinction data for two global planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphic zonations shows that the interval Late Miocene-Pliocene was an interval of enhanced extinction and evolution, consistent with an interval of more rapid and high amplitude fluctuating environments.

  5. Traditional medicines and globalization: current and future perspectives in ethnopharmacology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco eLeonti

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The ethnopharmacological approach towards the understanding and appraisal of traditional and herbal medicines is characterized by the inclusions of the social as well as the natural sciences. Anthropological field-observations describing the local use of nature-derived medicines are the basis for ethnopharmacological enquiries. The multidisciplinary scientific validation of indigenous drugs is of relevance to modern societies at large and helps to sustain local health care practices. Especially with respect to therapies related to ageing related, chronic and infectious diseases traditional medicines offer promising alternatives to biomedicine. Bioassays applied in ethnopharmacology represent the molecular characteristics and complexities of the disease or symptoms for which an indigenous drug is used in traditional medicine to variable depth and extent. One-dimensional in vitro approaches rarely cope with the complexity of human diseases and ignore the concept of polypharmacological synergies. The recent focus on holistic approaches and systems biology in medicinal plant research represents the trend towards the description and the understanding of complex multi-parameter systems.Ethnopharmacopoeias are non-static cultural constructs shaped by belief and knowledge systems. Intensified globalization and economic liberalism currently accelerates the interchange between local and global pharmacopoeias via international trade, television, the World Wide Web and print media. The increased infiltration of newly generated biomedical knowledge and introduction of foreign medicines into local pharmacopoeias leads to syncretic developments and generates a feedback loop. While modern and post-modern cultures and knowledge systems adapt and transform the global impact, they become more relevant for ethnopharmacology. Moreover, what is traditional, alternative or complementary medicine depends on the adopted historic-cultural perspective.

  6. Traditional medicines and globalization: current and future perspectives in ethnopharmacology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonti, Marco; Casu, Laura

    2013-01-01

    The ethnopharmacological approach toward the understanding and appraisal of traditional and herbal medicines is characterized by the inclusions of the social as well as the natural sciences. Anthropological field-observations describing the local use of nature-derived medicines are the basis for ethnopharmacological enquiries. The multidisciplinary scientific validation of indigenous drugs is of relevance to modern societies at large and helps to sustain local health care practices. Especially with respect to therapies related to aging related, chronic and infectious diseases traditional medicines offer promising alternatives to biomedicine. Bioassays applied in ethnopharmacology represent the molecular characteristics and complexities of the disease or symptoms for which an indigenous drug is used in "traditional" medicine to variable depth and extent. One-dimensional in vitro approaches rarely cope with the complexity of human diseases and ignore the concept of polypharmacological synergies. The recent focus on holistic approaches and systems biology in medicinal plant research represents the trend toward the description and the understanding of complex multi-parameter systems. Ethnopharmacopoeias are non-static cultural constructs shaped by belief and knowledge systems. Intensified globalization and economic liberalism currently accelerates the interchange between local and global pharmacopoeias via international trade, television, the World Wide Web and print media. The increased infiltration of newly generated biomedical knowledge and introduction of "foreign" medicines into local pharmacopoeias leads to syncretic developments and generates a feedback loop. While modern and post-modern cultures and knowledge systems adapt and transform the global impact, they become more relevant for ethnopharmacology. Moreover, what is traditional, alternative or complementary medicine depends on the adopted historic-cultural perspective.

  7. Environmental health implications of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Robert T; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J; Parson, Edward A; Vincent, James H

    2005-09-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and--associated with all the preceding--the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem.

  8. Global change and the groundwater management challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorelick, Steven M.; Zheng, Chunmiao

    2015-05-01

    With rivers in critical regions already exploited to capacity throughout the world and groundwater overdraft as well as large-scale contamination occurring in many areas, we have entered an era in which multiple simultaneous stresses will drive water management. Increasingly, groundwater resources are taking a more prominent role in providing freshwater supplies. We discuss the competing fresh groundwater needs for human consumption, food production, energy, and the environment, as well as physical hazards, and conflicts due to transboundary overexploitation. During the past 50 years, groundwater management modeling has focused on combining simulation with optimization methods to inspect important problems ranging from contaminant remediation to agricultural irrigation management. The compound challenges now faced by water planners require a new generation of aquifer management models that address the broad impacts of global change on aquifer storage and depletion trajectory management, land subsidence, groundwater-dependent ecosystems, seawater intrusion, anthropogenic and geogenic contamination, supply vulnerability, and long-term sustainability. The scope of research efforts is only beginning to address complex interactions using multiagent system models that are not readily formulated as optimization problems and that consider a suite of human behavioral responses.

  9. Environmental health implications of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Robert T.; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J.; Parson, Edward A.; Vincent, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and - associated with all the preceding - the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem. (Author)

  10. Current Status of Japanese Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Research Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kachi, Misako; Oki, Riko; Kubota, Takuji; Masaki, Takeshi; Kida, Satoshi; Iguchi, Toshio; Nakamura, Kenji; Takayabu, Yukari N.

    2013-04-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is a mission led by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under collaboration with many international partners, who will provide constellation of satellites carrying microwave radiometer instruments. The GPM Core Observatory, which carries the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) developed by JAXA and the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT), and the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) developed by NASA. The GPM Core Observatory is scheduled to be launched in early 2014. JAXA also provides the Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM) 1st - Water (GCOM-W1) named "SHIZUKU," as one of constellation satellites. The SHIZUKU satellite was launched in 18 May, 2012 from JAXA's Tanegashima Space Center, and public data release of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) on board the SHIZUKU satellite was planned that Level 1 products in January 2013, and Level 2 products including precipitation in May 2013. The Japanese GPM research project conducts scientific activities on algorithm development, ground validation, application research including production of research products. In addition, we promote collaboration studies in Japan and Asian countries, and public relations activities to extend potential users of satellite precipitation products. In pre-launch phase, most of our activities are focused on the algorithm development and the ground validation related to the algorithm development. As the GPM standard products, JAXA develops the DPR Level 1 algorithm, and the NASA-JAXA Joint Algorithm Team develops the DPR Level 2 and the DPR-GMI combined Level2 algorithms. JAXA also develops the Global Rainfall Map product as national product to distribute hourly and 0.1-degree horizontal resolution rainfall map. All standard algorithms including Japan-US joint algorithm will be reviewed by the Japan-US Joint

  11. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  12. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  13. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  14. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  15. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  16. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  17. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-02-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  18. CHAOS THEORY, GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CHANGE, AND HYBRID WARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Korybko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The global system is being rocked by the dueling ambitions of two competing blocs, with the US and its allies fighting to reinforce their unipolar system while Russia and its partners struggle to forge a multipolar future. The rapidity and scope with which events are unfolding makes it overwhelming for the casual observer to make sense of all of the complex processes currently at play, and truth be told, it’s understandable that all of this can appear confusing. In an attempt to clarify the present state of global affairs and forecast the direction that it’s all headed in, the article begins by explaining the nature of chaos theory and describing how it’s applicable to conceptualizing contemporary international relations. Afterwards, the idea of “chaos sequencing” is proposed, which in essence is a model that can be used in understanding the process of chaotic change. Following that, the article addresses the topic of global systemic change and includes the most relevant examples for how this relates to the present day. Next, the research combines these two aforementioned elements (chaos theory and global systemic change and presents a forward-looking geopolitical analysis that incorporates cutting-edge Hybrid War theory and aims to put the New Cold War into its proper perspective. Finally, the article ends on a suggestive note in encouraging analysts to study the authors’ conceptualization of Hybrid War in order to better prepare themselves for understanding and responding to forthcoming international events.

  19. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  20. Current and future patterns of global marine mammal biodiversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin Kaschner

    Full Text Available Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available.

  1. Current and future patterns of global marine mammal biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaschner, Kristin; Tittensor, Derek P; Ready, Jonathan; Gerrodette, Tim; Worm, Boris

    2011-01-01

    Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available.

  2. Global temperate drylands climate change vulnerability

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in distribution and...

  3. Data management and global change research: Technology and infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrissey, W.A. (Technical Information Specialist, Congressional Research Service, Washington, DC (United States))

    1993-01-01

    There is a consensus among many scientists who would perform global change research that global-scale scientific data management programs and enabling policies need to be developed and implemented concomitantly with, if not in advance of, global change research programs. They are hopeful that US Federal government policies for scientific and technical data and information management will provide timely archival, analysis, and dissemination of global change research data and will enable them to share that data with colleagues, internationally. Federal data managers believe that data management technology and infrastructure requirements for global change research programs can be met through existing or planned enhancements to systems in operation used for scientific data gathering, processing, and dissemination. Scientists are concerned, however, that because of the scope and diversity of global change research programs entirely new systems and approaches to data management may need to be devised.

  4. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    and WRI 2000, Nordhaus 2006) and there is also some information on road networks and the travel time to the nearest cities (Nelson 2008). However, this information has not so far been integrated to facilitate analyses of market access and market influence, which has hampered many socio-economic analyses to date. The analysis by Verburg et al (2011) provides an important improvement in this respect. They developed a consistent global dataset on various market accessibility indicators on a 1 km2 spatial resolution. Their analysis shows that market access is distinctly different from population patterns in some regions, which may help us to understand the prevalence of current economic conditions there. These are mostly areas with high population density, but little access to markets and, hence, a large share of subsistence farming and local economic activities. Measures of market access and market influence can improve our understanding about the drivers of environmental change, as they link regional and global economic activity to local environmental conditions. They can also help to assess, design and implement targeted measures to reduce environmental pressure and improve ecosystem services. The analysis and dataset provided by Verburg et al demonstrates the kind of valuable insights that can be generated by an integration of earth observation data, local case studies and modeling efforts at different spatial scales. This integration can improve monitoring, modeling and management of various global environmental changes, which will contribute to more sustainable economic development (Lotze-Campen et al 2008). Moreover, local market access is an important factor for economic development, poverty and food security. Aggregate, national figures, such as the human development index, do not provide sufficient detail. In many developing countries, certain rural areas lack market access and related options for development, as shown by Verburg et al for e.g. Nigeria and

  5. Ecophysiology of avian migration in the face of current global hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaassen, Marcel; Hoye, Bethany J; Nolet, Bart A; Buttemer, William A

    2012-06-19

    Long-distance migratory birds are often considered extreme athletes, possessing a range of traits that approach the physiological limits of vertebrate design. In addition, their movements must be carefully timed to ensure that they obtain resources of sufficient quantity and quality to satisfy their high-energy needs. Migratory birds may therefore be particularly vulnerable to global change processes that are projected to alter the quality and quantity of resource availability. Because long-distance flight requires high and sustained aerobic capacity, even minor decreases in vitality can have large negative consequences for migrants. In the light of this, we assess how current global change processes may affect the ability of birds to meet the physiological demands of migration, and suggest areas where avian physiologists may help to identify potential hazards. Predicting the consequences of global change scenarios on migrant species requires (i) reconciliation of empirical and theoretical studies of avian flight physiology; (ii) an understanding of the effects of food quality, toxicants and disease on migrant performance; and (iii) mechanistic models that integrate abiotic and biotic factors to predict migratory behaviour. Critically, a multi-dimensional concept of vitality would greatly facilitate evaluation of the impact of various global change processes on the population dynamics of migratory birds.

  6. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  7. Plant invaders, global change and landscape restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyke, D.A.; Knick, S.T.

    2005-01-01

    Modifications in land uses, technology, transportation and biogeochemical cycles currently influence the spread of organisms by reducing the barriers that once restricted their movements. We provide an overview of the spatial and temporal extent for agents of environmental change (land and disturbance transformations, biogeochemical modifications, biotic additions and losses) and highlight those that strongly influence rangeland ecosystems. Restoration may provide a mechanism for ameliorating the impacts of invasive species, but applications of restoration practices over large scales, e.g. ecoregions, will yield benefits earlier when the landscape is prioritised by criteria that identify locations where critical restoration species can grow and where success will be high. We used the Great Basin, USA as our region of interest where the invasive annual grass, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), dominates millions of hectares. A landscape-level restoration model for sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp. tridentata and ssp. wyomingensis) was developed to meet the goal of establishing priority habitat for wildlife. This approach could be used in long-range planning of rangeland ecosystems where funds and labour for restoration projects may vary annually. Copyright ?? NISC Pty Ltd.

  8. Contextualizing the global relevance of local land change observations

    CERN Document Server

    Magliocca, N R; Oates, T; Schmill, M

    2013-01-01

    To understand global changes in the Earth system, scientists must generalize globally from observations made locally and regionally. In land change science (LCS), local field-based observations are costly and time consuming, and generally obtained by researchers working at disparate local and regional case-study sites chosen for different reasons. As a result, global synthesis efforts in LCS tend to be based on non-statistical inferences subject to geographic biases stemming from data limitations and fragmentation. Thus, a fundamental challenge is the production of generalized knowledge that links evidence of the causes and consequences of local land change to global patterns and vice versa. The GLOBE system was designed to meet this challenge. GLOBE aims to transform global change science by enabling new scientific workflows based on statistically robust, globally relevant integration of local and regional observations using an online social-computational and geovisualization system. Consistent with the goal...

  9. Atmospheric General Circulation Changes under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palipane, Erool

    The work in this thesis is mainly two-fold. First we study the internal variability of the general circulation and focus our study on the annular modes and how important it is to simulate the subsynoptic scales in the circulation. In the next major section we will try to understand the mechanisms of the forced response and the mechanisms leading towards the jet shift from transient evolution in Atmospheric general circulation models. In the first part, in an attempt to assess the benefit of resolving the sub-synoptic to mesoscale processes, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Annular Modes (AMs), in particular those related to the troposphere-stratosphere interaction, are evaluated for moderate- and high-horizontal resolution simulations with a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in comparison with the ERA40 re- analysis. Relative to the CMIP-type climate models, the IFS AGCM demonstrates notable improvement in capturing the key characteristics of the AMs. Notably, the performance with the high horizontal resolution version of the model is systematically superior to the moderate resolution on all metrics examined, including the variance of the AMs at different seasons of the year, the intrinsic e-folding time scales of the AMs, and the downward influence from the stratosphere to troposphere in the AMs. Moreover, the high-resolution simulation with a greater persistence in the intrinsic variability of the SAM projects an appreciably larger shift of the surface westerly wind during the Southern Hemisphere summer under climate change. In the second part, the response of the atmospheric circulation to greenhouse gas-induced SST warming is investigated using large ensemble experiments with two AGCMs, with a focus on the robust feature of the poleward shift of the eddy driven jet. In these experiments, large ensembles of simulations are conducted by abruptly switching the SST forcing on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation

  10. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget Crosscut

    Data.gov (United States)

    Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President — U.S. Global Change Research Program budget authority for Agency activities in which the primary focus is on:Observations, research, and analysis of climate change...

  11. Global Climate Change. Selected Annotated Bibliography. Second Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Douglas E.

    This annotated bibliography on global climate change contains 27 articles designed to expand the breadth and depth of information presented in the Global Change Information Packet. Most articles were chosen from journals likely to be available in most medium-sized public or college libraries. The articles cover a variety of topics related to…

  12. Changing global capitalism and the growth of the Indian economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jørgen Dige

    The paper argues that one of the reasons for India's continued growth is that India's economy increasingly fall in line with recent global economic changes.......The paper argues that one of the reasons for India's continued growth is that India's economy increasingly fall in line with recent global economic changes....

  13. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  14. Methane, vegetation and global climate change; Methan, Pflanzen und Klimawandel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keppler, F. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Chemie (Otto-Hahn-Institut), Mainz (Germany); Roeckmann, T. [Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. fuer Meeres- und Atmosphaerenforschung

    2007-05-15

    In a recent publication, the authors were able to prove that plants produce and emit methane. This means a major change in the global emission balance of this climate-relevant gas. Plants are not involved in global climate change, however. (orig.)

  15. Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, P A; Graham, J B; Rosenblatt, R H; Somero, G N

    1993-10-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.

  16. Wind changes above warm Agulhas Current eddies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rouault, M

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available speeds above the eddies at the instantaneous scale; 20 % of cases had incomplete data due to partial global coverage by the scatterometer for one path. For cases where the wind is stronger above warm eddies, there is no relationship between the increase...

  17. Global Changes: Re-envisioning Graduate Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skelton, Doris; Woolridge, Deborah; Humphrey, Rebecca

    1999-01-01

    Reports on a qualitative study of perceived needs of counselors in training at Southeast Missouri State University and proposes a model of graduate education to meet local and global needs that is comprised of: (1) curriculum enhancement; (2) partnership between the university and a professional development school; (3) international professional…

  18. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

  19. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  20. Ecotones in a changing environment: Workshop on ecotones and global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Risser, P.G.

    1990-02-01

    The Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) has organized an international project to synthesize and advance current theory on the influence of ecotones, or transition zones between ecosystems, on biodiversity and flows of energy, nutrients, water, and project is other materials between ecosystems. In particular, the entire project is designed to evaluate the influence of global climate change and land-use practices on biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones, and will assess the feasibility of monitoring ecotones as early indicators of global change. The later stages of the project will recommend landscape management strategies for ecotones that produce desirable patterns of biodiversity and ecological flows. The result of the project--a comprehensive body of information on the theory and management of biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones--will be part of the planning for research to be carried out under the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program.

  1. Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-26

    ecological approach was given global scope by the “ Brundtland Report ” of the World Commission on Environment and Development. Articulating the goal of...Environmental Policy Resources, Science, and Industry Division Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for...Directorate for Information Operations and Reports , 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that

  2. Global scene layout modulates contextual learning in change detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus eConci

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Change in the visual scene often goes unnoticed – a phenomenon referred to as ‘change blindness’. This study examined whether the hierarchical structure, i.e., the global-local layout of a scene can influence performance in a one-shot change detection paradigm. To this end, natural scenes of a laid breakfast table were presented, and observers were asked to locate the onset of a new local object. Importantly, the global structure of the scene was manipulated by varying the relations among objects in the scene layouts. The very same items were either presented as global-congruent (typical layouts or as global-incongruent (random arrangements. Change blindness was less severe for congruent than for incongruent displays, and this congruency benefit increased with the duration of the experiment. These findings show that global layouts are learned, supporting detection of local changes with enhanced efficiency. However, performance was not affected by scene congruency in a subsequent control experiment that required observers to localize a static discontinuity (i.e., an object that was missing from the repeated layouts. Our results thus show that learning of the global layout is particularly linked to the local objects. Taken together, our results reveal an effect of global precedence in natural scenes. We suggest that relational properties within the hierarchy of a natural scene are governed, in particular, by global image analysis, reducing change blindness for local objects through scene learning.

  3. Global scene layout modulates contextual learning in change detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conci, Markus; Müller, Hermann J

    2014-01-01

    Change in the visual scene often goes unnoticed - a phenomenon referred to as "change blindness." This study examined whether the hierarchical structure, i.e., the global-local layout of a scene can influence performance in a one-shot change detection paradigm. To this end, natural scenes of a laid breakfast table were presented, and observers were asked to locate the onset of a new local object. Importantly, the global structure of the scene was manipulated by varying the relations among objects in the scene layouts. The very same items were either presented as global-congruent (typical) layouts or as global-incongruent (random) arrangements. Change blindness was less severe for congruent than for incongruent displays, and this congruency benefit increased with the duration of the experiment. These findings show that global layouts are learned, supporting detection of local changes with enhanced efficiency. However, performance was not affected by scene congruency in a subsequent control experiment that required observers to localize a static discontinuity (i.e., an object that was missing from the repeated layouts). Our results thus show that learning of the global layout is particularly linked to the local objects. Taken together, our results reveal an effect of "global precedence" in natural scenes. We suggest that relational properties within the hierarchy of a natural scene are governed, in particular, by global image analysis, reducing change blindness for local objects through scene learning.

  4. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON POVERTY AND SOLUTION SUGGESTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sermin Atak, Melike Erdogan, Asli Yoenten

    2008-09-30

    Most environmental risks including global warming are accepted as ''manufactured risks'' as well. Climate change, as manufactured risk, occurs due to human activities such as energy usage, industrialization, agricultural activities, pollination and forest damage which broke down the combination of global atmosphere in addition to nature sourced climate change which can be stated as external risk. Global climate change, as manufactured risk, has environmental and socio-economic effects in the subjects like water shortage, drought, highness in water levels, decrease in biological diversity, nutrition and food shortage. The effect of global climate change, as manufactured risk, on society's poverty has been classified as horizontal and vertical effect in this study. It's possible to say that horizontal effect of global climate change, as manufactured risk, on poverty will come out in the way ''expansion of poverty''. It's possible to state the vertical effect of global climate change, as manufactured risk, on poverty as the ''deepening of poverty'' and ''intensifying of poverty''. Horizontal and vertical effects of climate change on poverty can not be evaluated interdependently. The multiplier effect and the cross interaction that these two effects form together bring along the process of increasing of poverty and the solution's getting difficult. Global climate change, as manufactured risk, affects all parts but the most powerful effect of it is over the poor. The studies in the direction of decreasing the poverty effect of global climate change necessitate global cooperation. National and international solutions should be considered together. In addition to global cooperation, individual, institutional, domestic and regional applications must have complementary qualities in decreasing the effects of global climate change. Global and individual studies made for

  5. Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-06

    Vaclav Klaus , President of the Czech Republic, as quoted in Notes for the speech of the President of the Czech Republic at the UN Climate Change...63 Vaclav Klaus , UN Climate Change Conference, 2. 64 Ibid., 1. 65 Aaron T. Wolf, and Annika Kramer, and Alexander...2007). Klaus , Vaclav , President of the Czech Republic. Notes for the Speech of the President of the Czech Republic at the UN Climate Change

  6. Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Riedy

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.

  7. Review of the current wind energy technologies and global market

    OpenAIRE

    Komarov, Dragan; Stupar, Slobodan; Posteljnik, Zorana

    2011-01-01

    The modern wind energy technologies and recent global wind energy market trends are reviewed in the paper. Basic principles of conversion of wind energy to electricity are described with brief overview of the state-of-the-art technologies for subassemblies such as wind turbine blades and drive trains. Global wind energy market was reviewed in order to attain notion of wind power market developments in the future. The most developed countries in terms of wind energy utilization such as Denmark...

  8. The Phenomenon of Financial Economics: Russia and the World Are in Current Global Turbulence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentine P. Akinina

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the analysis of the current situation on the global financial arena, analyzing the chain of cause and effect of the origins of the economic crisis and providing its possible logical outcomes. We are trying to prove here that the way the world economic situation develops will lead to either further growth or stagnation of national economies and define their position in the global business, financial, and social spheres.

    We provide an analysis of the serious transformations financial economics have been undergoing at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries. All these changes, such as the development of international fusions on financial markets, the creation of new financial instruments, products and services, and others, have been caused largely by (and also have led to significant events in the global political arena. However, regardless of the transformations, world leadership remains in the hands of US government and business and that of their closest partners, while those societies that are not willing to support the “Americanized” world order end up on the blacklist of the World Bank, the IMF, and other international financial institutions.

    Finally, the article provides our views of the possible ways of dealing with the global economic stagnation. We highlight the importance of the strong and careful supervision of any global as well as national financial activities, the education of the public on the issues of wise investments, and the dangers of living on credit.

  9. A current global view of environmental and occupational cancers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Mihi

    2011-07-01

    This review is focused on current information of avoidable environmental pollution and occupational exposure as causes of cancer. Approximately 2% to 8% of all cancers are thought to be due to occupation. In addition, occupational and environmental cancers have their own characteristics, e.g., specific chemicals and cancers, multiple factors, multiple causation and interaction, or latency period. Concerning carcinogens, asbestos/silica/wood dust, soot/polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons [benzo(a) pyrene], heavy metals (arsenic, chromium, nickel), aromatic amines (4-aminobiphenyl, benzidine), organic solvents (benzene or vinyl chloride), radiation/radon, or indoor pollutants (formaldehyde, tobacco smoking) are mentioned with their specific cancers, e.g., lung, skin, and bladder cancers, mesothelioma or leukemia, and exposure routes, rubber or pigment manufacturing, textile, painting, insulation, mining, and so on. In addition, nanoparticles, electromagnetic waves, and climate changes are suspected as future carcinogenic sources. Moreover, the aspects of environmental and occupational cancers are quite different between developing and developed countries. The recent follow-up of occupational cancers in Nordic countries shows a good example for developed countries. On the other hand, newly industrializing countries face an increased burden of occupational and environmental cancers. Developing countries are particularly suffering from preventable cancers in mining, agriculture, or industries without proper implication of safety regulations. Therefore, industrialized countries are expected to educate and provide support for developing countries. In addition, citizens can encounter new environmental and occupational carcinogen nominators such as nanomaterials, electromagnetic wave, and climate exchanges. As their carcinogenicity or involvement in carcinogenesis is not clearly unknown, proper consideration for them should be taken into account. For these purposes, new

  10. Geomagnetism, volcanoes, global climate change, and predictability. A progress report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Gregori

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available A model is investigated, by which the encounters of the solar system with dense interstellar clouds ought to trigger either geomagnetic field reversals or excursions, that produce extra electric currents within the Earth dynamo, that cause extra Joule's heating, that supplies volcanoes and endogenous processes. Volcanoes increase the Earth degassing into the atmosphere, hence the concentration of the minor atmospheric constituents, including the greenhouse gases, hence they affect climate temperature, glacier melting, sea level and global change. This investigation implies both theoretical studies and observational data handling on different time scales, including present day phenomena, instrumental data series, historical records, proxy data, and geological and palaeontological evidences. The state of the art is briefly outlined, mentioning some already completed achievements, investigations in progress, and future perspectives.

  11. Marine viruses and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danovaro, R.; Corinaldesi, C.; Dell'Anno, A.; Fuhrman, J.A.; Middelburg, J.J.; Noble, R.T.; Suttle, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface

  12. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Liverman, D.; Barker, T.; Jotzo, F.; Kammen, D.M.; Leemans, R.; Lenton, T.M.; Munasinghe, M.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Stern, N.; Vogel, C.; Waever, O.

    2011-01-01

    Providing an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and cultu

  13. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Liverman, D.; Barker, T.; Jotzo, F.; Kammen, D.M.; Leemans, R.; Lenton, T.M.; Munasinghe, M.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Stern, N.; Vogel, C.; Waever, O.

    2011-01-01

    Providing an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and

  14. Effects of global change on tropical ecosystems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scholes, RJ

    1997-09-01

    Full Text Available , especially at the tropical margins. The structure and productivity of ecosystems of the sub humid and dry tropics are very sensitive to changes in water balance, which could be caused by a combination of changes in precipitation and temperature...

  15. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EK Shuman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth’s atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  16. Challenges to professionalism: Social accountability and global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, David; Walpole, Sarah; Barna, Stefi

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the concept of professionalism as it relates to social change and social accountability, and expands on them in the light of global environmental changes. Professionalism in medicine includes concepts of altruism, service, professional knowledge, self-regulation and autonomy. Current dialogues around social accountability suggest that medical schools should re-orientate their strategy and desired education, research and service outcomes to the health needs of the communities they serve.This article addresses the following questions: • How do we reconcile ideas of medical professionalism with the demands of creating a more equal, just, sustainable and socially inclusive society? • What new challenges do or will we face in relation to environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, ecosystem health and climate change? • How can medical schools best teach social and environmental responsiveness within a framework of professionalism? • How do medical schools ensure that tomorrow's doctors possess the knowledge, skills and attitude to adapt to the challenges they will face in future roles?We offer ideas about why and how medical educators can change, recommendations to strengthen the teaching of professionalism and social accountability and suggestions about the contribution of an emerging concept, that of "environmental accountability".

  17. Global Change Simulations Affect Potential Methane Oxidation in Upland Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankinship, J. C.; Hungate, B. A.

    2004-12-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH4) are higher now than they have ever been during the past 420,000 years. However, concentrations have remained stable since 1999. Emissions associated with livestock husbandry are unlikely to have changed, so some combination of reduced production in wetlands, more efficient capture by landfills, or increased consumption by biological CH4 oxidation in upland soils may be responsible. Methane oxidizing bacteria are ubiquitous in upland soils and little is known about how these bacteria respond to anthropogenic global change, and how they will influence - or already are influencing - the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Might ongoing and future global changes increase biological CH4 oxidation? Soils were sampled from two field experiments to assess changes in rates of CH4 oxidation in response to global change simulations. Potential activities of CH4 oxidizing bacterial communities were measured through laboratory incubations under optimal temperature, soil moisture, and atmospheric CH4 concentrations (~18 ppm, or 10x ambient). The ongoing 6-year multifactorial Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, elevated atmospheric CO2, elevated atmospheric N deposition, and increased wildfire frequency in an annual grassland in a Mediterranean-type climate in central California. The ongoing 1-year multifactorial Merriam Climate Change Experiment (MCCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, and reduced precipitation in four different types of ecosystems along an elevational gradient in a semi-arid climate in northern Arizona. The high desert grassland, pinyon-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest, and mixed conifer forest ecosystems range in annual precipitation from 100 to 1000 mm yr-1, and from productivity being strongly water limited to strongly temperature limited. Among JRGCE soils, elevated atmospheric CO2 increased potential CH4 oxidation rates (p=0.052) and wildfire

  18. Labour Markets Trends, Financial Globalization and the current crisis in Developing Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.E. van der Hoeven (Rolph)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe current wave of globalization has profound labour market effects, accentuated, in many cases, by the current financial and economic crisis. This paper reviews general labour market trends and country examples, arguing that the current globalization process makes labour’s position mor

  19. Labour Markets Trends, Financial Globalization and the current crisis in Developing Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.E. van der Hoeven (Rolph)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe current wave of globalization has profound labour market effects, accentuated, in many cases, by the current financial and economic crisis. This paper reviews general labour market trends and country examples, arguing that the current globalization process makes labour’s position

  20. Botanic gardens science for conservation and global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donaldson, John S

    2009-11-01

    The contributions of botanic gardens to conservation biology and global-change research need to be understood within the context of the traditional strengths of such gardens in herbarium collections, living collections and interactions with the public. Here, I propose that research in conservation planning, modelling species responses to climate change, conservation of threatened species and experimental tests of global change build on the core strengths of botanic gardens. However, there are limits to what can be achieved through traditional gardens-based programs, and some botanic gardens have adapted their research to include studies of threatening processes and to monitor and verify global-change impacts. There is an opportunity for botanic gardens to use their living collections more effectively in global-change research and for them to have a role in linking biodiversity conservation with benefits derived from ecosystem services.

  1. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, H.P.

    1996-10-01

    This report discusses results from the project entitled Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change. Results are discussed in three sections related to the development of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), surface forcing of the ocean by the atmosphere, and experiments with the MICOM related to the problem of the ocean`s response to global climate change. It will require the use of a global, coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model to quantify the feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere associated with climate changes. The results presented here do provide guidance for such studies in the future.

  2. Organizational change and current trends in management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lect. Dr. Chirimbu Sebastian

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The challenge is to manage the organization's culture so that you can tap the company's strenghts to chieve superior performance and identify it's weaknesses in time to overcome them before they cause serious damage." Successful adaptation to change is as crucial within an organization as it is in the natural world. Just like plants and animals, organizations and the individuals in them inevitably encounter changing conditions that they are powerless to control.

  3. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

    2016-10-01

    An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important

  4. Global food security under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidhuber, J; Tubiello, F.N.

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed s...

  5. Meta-analysis and its application in global change research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LEI XiangDong; PENG ChangHui; TIAN DaLun; SUN JianFeng

    2007-01-01

    Meta-analysis is a quantitative synthetic research method that statistically integrates results from individual studies to find common trends and differences. With increasing concern over global change, meta-analysis has been rapidly adopted in global change research. Here, we introduce the methodologies, advantages and disadvantages of meta-analysis, and review its application in global climate change research, including the responses of ecosystems to global warming and rising CO2 and O3 concentrations, the effects of land use and management on climate change and the effects of disturbances on biogeochemistry cycles of ecosystem. Despite limitation and potential misapplication, meta-analysis has been demonstrated to be a much better tool than traditional narrative review in synthesizing results from multiple studies. Several methodological developments for research synthesis have not yet been widely used in global climate change researches such as cumulative meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis. It is necessary to update the results of meta-analysis on a given topic at regular intervals by including newly published studies. Emphasis should be put on multi-factor interaction and long-term experiments. There is great potential to apply meta-analysis to global climate change research in China because research and observation networks have been established (e.g. ChinaFlux and CERN), which create the need for combining these data and results to provide support for governments' decision making on climate change. It is expected that meta-analysis will be widely adopted in future climate change research.

  6. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  7. Predicting the persistence of coastal wetlands to global change stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guntenspergen, G.; McKee, K.; Cahoon, D.; Grace, J.; Megonigal, P.

    2006-01-01

    Despite progress toward understanding the response of coastal wetlands to increases in relative sea-level rise and an improved understanding of the effect of elevated CO2 on plant species allocation patterns, we are limited in our ability to predict the response of coastal wetlands to the effects associated with global change. Static simulations of the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise using LIDAR and GIS lack the biological and physical feedback mechanisms present in such systems. Evidence from current research suggests that biotic processes are likely to have a major influence on marsh vulnerability to future accelerated rates of sea-level rise and the influence of biotic processes likely varies depending on hydrogeomorphic setting and external stressors. We have initiated a new research approach using a series of controlled mesocosm and field experiments, landscape scale studies, a comparative network of brackish coastal wetland monitoring sites and a suite of predictive models that address critical questions regarding the vulnerability of coastal brackish wetland systems to global change. Specifically, this research project evaluates the interaction of sea level rise and elevated CO2 concentrations with flooding, nutrient enrichment and disturbance effects. The study is organized in a hierarchical structure that links mesocosm, field, landscape and biogeographic levels so as to provide important new information that recognizes that coastal wetland systems respond to multiple interacting drivers and feedback effects controlling wetland surface elevation, habitat stability and ecosystem function. We also present a new statistical modelling technique (Structural Equation Modelling) that synthesizes and integrates our environmental and biotic measures in a predictive framework that forecasts ecosystem change and informs managers to consider adaptive shifts in strategies for the sustainable management of coastal wetlands.

  8. Illinois task force on global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffin, B.S. [Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources, Springfield, IL (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  9. Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... economic and social effects. Keywords: climate change, food security, agriculture, adaptation, Tanzania ... According to the IPCC (2008) report, global warming is already .... health in the southern highlands of Tanzania. He concluded that ...

  10. Global properties of magnetotail current sheet flapping: THEMIS perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Runov

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A sequence of magnetic field oscillations with an amplitude of up to 30 nT and a time scale of 30 min was detected by four of the five THEMIS spacecraft in the magnetotail plasma sheet. The probes P1 and P2 were at X=−15.2 and −12.7 RE and P3 and P4 were at X=−7.9 RE. All four probes were at −6.5>Y>−7.5 RE (major conjunction. Multi-point timing analysis of the magnetic field variations shows that fronts of the oscillations propagated flankward (dawnward and Earthward nearly perpendicular to the direction of the magnetic maximum variation (B1 at velocities of 20–30 km/s. These are typical characteristics of current sheet flapping motion. The observed anti-correlation between ∂B1/∂t and the Z-component of the bulk velocity make it possible to estimate a flapping amplitude of 1 to 3 RE. The cross-tail scale wave-length was found to be about 5 RE. Thus the flapping waves are steep tail-aligned structures with a lengthwise scale of >10 RE. The intermittent plasma motion with the cross-tail velocity component changing its sign, observed during flapping, indicates that the flapping waves were propagating through the ambient plasma. Simultaneous observations of the magnetic field variations by THEMIS ground-based magnetometers show that the flapping oscillations were observed during the growth phase of a substorm.

  11. Global environmental change and the biology of arbuscular mycorrhizas: gaps and challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitter, A.H.; Heinemeyer, A.; Husband, R.

    2004-01-01

    Our ability to make predictions about the impact of global environmental change on arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and on their role in regulating biotic response to such change is seriously hampered by our lack of knowledge of the basic biology of these ubiquitous organisms. Current information...

  12. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  13. International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

  14. Origin, dispersal and current global distribution of cacao genetic diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is cultivated globally as the unique source of cocoa butter and powder for the confectionery industries. In spite of its economical importance, cocoa was and continues to be dominantly produced in low-input and low-output systems. Production constraints, including depletio...

  15. Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

  16. Joint science academies' statement:Global response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    @@ Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring1.

  17. Technological Change, Globalization, and the Community College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Richard M.; Dellow, Donald A.

    2009-01-01

    In early nineteenth-century England, workers now known as Luddites roamed the countryside destroying machinery that they saw as creating unemployment and upsetting their traditional way of life. They believed that the growing mechanization of production, what people would now call technological change, and the expanding volume of trade ushered in…

  18. FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND GLOBAL CHANGE: THE CASE STUDY OF INSUBRIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pautasso

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems face multiple challenges due to climate change, invasive species, urbanization, land use change and the interactions between these global change drivers. This review provides an overview of such challenges for the case study of Insubria. Insubria is a region on the Southern side of the European Alps, famous for its stunning lakes (e.g., Como, Garda, Lugano, Maggiore, blessed by a relatively mild and humid climate, and shaped by the geologic fault line between the African and European plates. Global change impacts in Insubria pose a threat to its biodiversity and chestnut woodlands, particularly through modified winter forest fire regimes. Insubric biodiversity conservation, in turn, is essential to counteract the effects of climate change. Sustainable management of Insubric forests is made more difficult by rural abandonment, air pollution and invasive exotic species. There is a need to develop reliable long-term bio-indicators and to predict the shift of Insubric species, ecosystems and tree-lines due to rapid climate changes. Insubric studies on forests and global change call for enhanced international collaboration in forest management and research. Interdisciplinary approaches are needed to move from studies of single global change drivers to experiments, scenarios and models taking into account their combination and our responses to global change.

  19. What are the implications of rapid global warming for landslide-triggered turbidity current activity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, Michael; Peter, Talling; James, Hunt

    2014-05-01

    A geologically short-lived (~170kyr) episode of global warming occurred at ~55Ma, termed the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM). Global temperatures rose by up to 8oC over only ~10kyr and a massive perturbation of the global carbon cycle occurred; creating a negative carbon isotopic (~-4% δ13C) excursion in sedimentary records. This interval has relevance to study of future climate change and its influence on geohazards including submarine landslides and turbidity currents. We analyse the recurrence frequency of turbidity currents, potentially initiated from large-volume slope failures. The study focuses on two sedimentary intervals that straddle the IETM and we discuss implications for turbidity current triggering. We present the results of statistical analyses (regression, generalised linear model, and proportional hazards model) for extensive turbidite records from an outcrop at Zumaia in NE Spain (N=285; 54.0 to 56.5 Ma) and based on ODP site 1068 on the Iberian Margin (N=1571; 48.2 to 67.6 Ma). The sedimentary sequences provide clear differentiation between hemipelagic and turbiditic mud with only negligible evidence of erosion. We infer dates for turbidites by converting hemipelagic bed thicknesses to time using interval-averaged accumulation rates. Multi-proxy dating techniques provide good age constraint. The background trend for the Zumaia record shows a near-exponential distribution of turbidite recurrence intervals, while the Iberian Margin shows a log-normal response. This is interpreted to be related to regional time-independence (exponential) and the effects of additive processes (log-normal). We discuss how a log-normal response may actually be generated over geological timescales from multiple shorter periods of random turbidite recurrence. The IETM interval shows a dramatic departure from both these background trends, however. This is marked by prolonged hiatuses (0.1 and 0.6 Myr duration) in turbidity current activity in contrast to the

  20. A global perspective on changing sustainable urban water supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darrel Jenerette, G.; Larsen, Larissa

    2006-04-01

    Ensuring the sustainable supply of water for the world's largest cities has been and is a current challenge. Future trends in urban water consumption patterns will be determined by changes in population concentration, per-capita water use, climate, and the proportion of water retained for the production of instream ecosystem services. The objective of our research was to identify patterns of renewable water availability and urban consumption throughout the globe between the years 2000 and 2015. To better understand the interactions between urban consumption and regional availability of renewable water we used a modified ecological footprint (EF) approach. Urban water footprint areas were differentially sensitive to changes in consumption and changes in water availability; our results suggest climate induced reductions in water availability may be more of a concern than population growth or increased per-capita for securing continued supplies of water to large cities. Our results provide a comprehensive description of global urban water demand and highlight the variation between consumption and availability relationships for the 524 largest cities.

  1. Contextualizing the global relevance of local land change observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, N. R.; Ellis, E. C.; Oates, T.; Schmill, M.

    2014-02-01

    To understand global changes in the Earth system, scientists must generalize globally from observations made locally and regionally. In land change science (LCS), local field-based observations are costly and time consuming, and generally obtained by researchers working at disparate local and regional case-study sites chosen for different reasons. As a result, global synthesis efforts in LCS tend to be based on non-statistical inferences subject to geographic biases stemming from data limitations and fragmentation. Thus, a fundamental challenge is the production of generalized knowledge that links evidence of the causes and consequences of local land change to global patterns and vice versa. The GLOBE system was designed to meet this challenge. GLOBE aims to transform global change science by enabling new scientific workflows based on statistically robust, globally relevant integration of local and regional observations using an online social-computational and geovisualization system. Consistent with the goals of Digital Earth, GLOBE has the capability to assess the global relevance of local case-study findings within the context of over 50 global biophysical, land-use, climate, and socio-economic datasets. We demonstrate the implementation of one such assessment - a representativeness analysis - with a recently published meta-study of changes in swidden agriculture in tropical forests. The analysis provides a standardized indicator to judge the global representativeness of the trends reported in the meta-study, and a geovisualization is presented that highlights areas for which sampling efforts can be reduced and those in need of further study. GLOBE will enable researchers and institutions to rapidly share, compare, and synthesize local and regional studies within the global context, as well as contributing to the larger goal of creating a Digital Earth.

  2. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  3. Global Connectedness and Global Migration: Insights from the International Changing Academic Profession Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinn, Michelle K.; Ratkovic, Snežana; Wolhunter, Charl C.

    2013-01-01

    The Changing Academic Profession (CAP) international survey was designed in part to consider the effects of globalization on the work context and activities of academics in 19 countries or regions around the world. This paper draws from a subset of these data to explore the extent to which academics are globally connected in their research and…

  4. How social structure changes in Chinese global cities: Synthesizing globalization, migration and institutional factors in Beijing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shi, Q.; Liu, T.; Musterd, S.; Cao, G.

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies on the social structural change in global cities have recognized globalization, migration, and institutional factors as three main forces underlying this process. However, effects of these factors have rarely been synthetically examined and the social structure of emerging Chinese

  5. Glacier fluctuations, global temperature and sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leclercq, P.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/339579951

    2012-01-01

    The current world-wide glacier retreat is a clear sign of global warming. In addition, glaciers contribute to sea-level rise as a consequence of the current retreat. In this thesis we use records of past glacier fluctuations to reconstruct past climate variations and the glacier contribution to

  6. Natural resources management in an era of global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sommers, W.T. [USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1993-12-31

    The international science community has issued a series of predictions of global atmospheric change that, if they verify, will have heretofore unexperienced impact on our forests. Convincing the public and their natural resource managers to respond to these effects must be high on the agenda of the science community. Mitigative and adapative responses we examine and propose, however, should stem from an understanding of the evolving role of the natural resource manager and how that role might be affected by global change.

  7. Do global change experiments overestimate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leuzinger, Sebastian; Luo, Yiqi; Beier, Claus

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades, many climate manipulation experiments have investigated biosphere responses to global change. These experiments typically examined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, warming or drought (driver variables) on ecosystem processes such as the carbon and water cycle (response...... of the responses to decline with higher-order interactions, longer time periods and larger spatial scales. This means that on average, both positive and negative global change impacts on the biosphere might be dampened more than previously assumed....

  8. Emerging technologies for the changing global market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruit, Wendy; Schutzenhofer, Scott; Goldberg, Ben; Everhart, Kurt

    1993-01-01

    This project served to define an appropriate methodology for effective prioritization of technology efforts required to develop replacement technologies mandated by imposed and forecast legislation. The methodology used is a semi-quantative approach derived from quality function deployment techniques (QFD Matrix). This methodology aims to weight the full environmental, cost, safety, reliability, and programmatic implications of replacement technology development to allow appropriate identification of viable candidates and programmatic alternatives. The results will be implemented as a guideline for consideration for current NASA propulsion systems.

  9. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    in which the effect of temperature on rice yield could be isolated from other factors documented a 15% decrease in yield for every 1 °C increase in mean temperature [5]. The magnitude of this decrease is considerably larger than predictions of yield decreases from higher temperature obtained from crop simulation models. Like the results of Lobell and Field [2], we see a discrepancy between estimates of the effects of warmer temperatures on crop yields based on the relationship between crop yields and temperature under field conditions versus those derived from modeling and experiments conducted under controlled conditions. As we make the historic transition from an extended period of surplus food production to one in which demand for staple crop commodities exceeds supply, there is a vital need to better understand the impact of warming temperatures on current and future crop yields. References [1] Council for Agricultural Science and Technology 2006 Convergence of agriculture and energy: Implications for Research and Policy CAST Commentary QTA 2006-3 (Ames, Iowa: CAST) (www.cast-science.org) [2] Lobell D B and Field C B 2007 Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming Environ. Res. Lett. 2 014002 [3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group 2 Climate Change 2001 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability IPCC Working Group 2, Third Assessment (New York: Cambridge University Press) [4] Tubiello F N et al 2006 Crop response to elevated CO2 and world food supply: A comment on 'Food for Thought...' by Long et al, Science 312:1918-1921, 2006 Eur. J. Agron. 26 215 23 [5] Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy J E, Laza R, Visperas R M, Zhong X, Centeno G S, Khush G and Cassman K G 2004 Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 101 9971 5 Notes Note1 USA (40% of global maize, 56% of global maize exports), Brazil (33% of global sugar, 36% of global sugar exports), Indonesia and Malaysia (81

  10. Improving Understanding of the Agulhas Current and Its Global Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beal, Lisa; Biastoch, Arne

    2010-05-01

    Working Group on the Climatic Importance of the Greater Agulhas System; Portland, Oregon, 20-21 February 2010; The first meeting of the new Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) Working Group 136 was held to discuss recent developments in understanding the greater Agulhas Current system and future research directions. The overarching goal of the working group is to improve understanding and awareness of the regional and global climate impacts of the Agulhas Current, a major western boundary current that flows along the east coast of Africa, and its interocean leakage. In addition to studying modern circulation, the working group is motivated by recent paleodata that suggest that through the currents' southern influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), changes in the leakage of warm and salty Agulhas waters into the Atlantic may have triggered the end of ice ages. In terms of global climate, this arguably puts the importance of the greater Agulhas system on a par with Heinrich (land-ice release) events and high-latitude deepwater formation.

  11. Currents, Geostrophic, Aviso, 0.25 degrees, Global, Zonal

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviso Zonal Geostrophic Current is inferred from Sea Surface Height Deviation, climatological dynamic height, and basic fluid mechanics.

  12. Currents, Geostrophic, Aviso, 0.25 degrees, Global, Meridional

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviso Meridional Geostrophic Current is inferred from Sea Surface Height Deviation, climatological dynamic height, and basic fluid mechanics.

  13. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the context of global change and globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramakrishnan, P S

    2001-11-01

    In the context of over-consumption of natural resources in the name of development and rapid industrialization by a small section of the human population that is rapidly growing, the world is currently faced with a variety of environmental uncertainties. 'Global change' covering a whole variety of ecological issues, and 'globalization' in an economic sense, are two major phenomena that are responsible for these uncertainties. There is increasing evidence to suggest that the developing countries more than the developed, particularly the marginalized traditional (those living close to nature and natural resources) societies would be the worst sufferers. In order to cope with this problem in a situation where the traditional societies have to cope with rapidly depleting biodiversity on which they are dependant for their livelihood, there is an urgent need to explore additional pathways for sustainable management of natural resources and societal development. Such pathways should be based on a landscape management strategy, that takes into consideration the rich traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) that these societies have. This is critical because TEK is the connecting link between conservation and sustainable development. This paper explores the possibilities in this direction through a balanced approach to development, that links the 'traditional' with the 'modern', in a location-specific way.

  14. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.

    negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since...... and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. The report has been produced by a writing team comprised of members of the Scientific Steering Committee for the IARU Congress and individuals invited to give the writing team academic...... of this volume. The writing team has, in addition to presentations at the Congress, drawn upon recent publications in the scientific literature to create this synthesis. This report has been critically reviewed by representatives of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), by the parallel session chairs...

  15. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  16. French space programmes related to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellous, J. L.; Ratier, A.

    The guidelines of the national and cooperative environmental programmes conducted by CNES are complementarity with third agencies' programmes, synergism between scientific and application projects, and promotion of innovative concepts likely to meet the requirements of the World Climate Research and International Geosphere-Biosphere Programmes. While the on-going SPOT series is to provide imagery of land surfaces until 2000, the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric mission is being developed by NASA and CNES for launch in mid-1992 in phase with the WOCE intensive field experiments. The design study of the AVISO ocean data system, and the development on behalf of ESA of the ERS-1-dedicated CERSAT facility are consolidating the French effort in space oceanography. Two other research space missions are studied by CNES and French laboratories. BEST, whose phase A study is nearing completion, is a low-altitude, low-inclination, GEWEX-dedicated mission for the investigation of the water and energy cycle in the tropics, with a target launch date in the late 1990's. The phase A study of GLOBSAT, a more IGBP-oriented mission concept, has just been initiated. The first objective of this mission in polar orbit considered for launch around 1997, is to collect comprehensive data sets needed to document key processes related to cloud/radiation interaction, stratospheric/tropospheric chemistry and dynamics of continental and marine ecosystems. The second objective is to start monitoring long-term trends of parameters required to close global budgets of carbon and ozone. The analysis of this space mission concept is conducted in parallel with the development of instruments of opportunity to be flown onboard foreign satellites, and of airborne sensors, either precursor to space instruments or designed for process studies and validation of space data.

  17. Is This Global Warming? Communicating the Intangibles of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, L.; Henson, R.

    2004-05-01

    Unlike weather, which is immediate, tangible, and relevant on a daily basis, climate change is long-term, slow to evolve, and often difficult to relate to the public's daily concerns. By explaining global-change research to wide and diverse audiences through a variety of vehicles, including publications, exhibits, Web sites, and television B-roll, UCAR has gained experience and perspective on the challenges involved. This talk will explore some of the lessons learned and some of the key difficulties that face global-change communicators, including: --The lack of definitive findings on regional effects of global change -- The long time frame in which global change plays out, versus the short attention span of media, the public, and policy makers --The use of weather events as news pegs (they pique interest, but they may not be good exemplars of global change and are difficult to relate directly to changes in greenhouse-gas emissions) --The perils of the traditional journalistic technique of point-counterpoint in discussing climate change --The presence of strong personal/political convictions among various interest groups and how these affect the message(s) conveyed

  18. Global change and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matesanz, Silvia; Gianoli, Ernesto; Valladares, Fernando

    2010-09-01

    Global change drivers create new environmental scenarios and selective pressures, affecting plant species in various interacting ways. Plants respond with changes in phenology, physiology, and reproduction, with consequences for biotic interactions and community composition. We review information on phenotypic plasticity, a primary means by which plants cope with global change scenarios, recommending promising approaches for investigating the evolution of plasticity and describing constraints to its evolution. We discuss the important but largely ignored role of phenotypic plasticity in range shifts and review the extensive literature on invasive species as models of evolutionary change in novel environments. Plasticity can play a role both in the short-term response of plant populations to global change as well as in their long-term fate through the maintenance of genetic variation. In new environmental conditions, plasticity of certain functional traits may be beneficial (i.e., the plastic response is accompanied by a fitness advantage) and thus selected for. Plasticity can also be relevant in the establishment and persistence of plants in novel environments that are crucial for populations at the colonizing edge in range shifts induced by climate change. Experimental studies show taxonomically widespread plastic responses to global change drivers in many functional traits, though there is a lack of empirical support for many theoretical models on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Future studies should assess the adaptive value and evolutionary potential of plasticity under complex, realistic global change scenarios. Promising tools include resurrection protocols and artificial selection experiments. © 2010 New York Academy of Sciences.

  19. Global Changes in the Sea Ice Cover and Associated Surface Temperature Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2016-06-01

    The trends in the sea ice cover in the two hemispheres have been observed to be asymmetric with the rate of change in the Arctic being negative at -3.8 % per decade while that of the Antarctic is positive at 1.7 % per decade. These observations are confirmed in this study through analyses of a more robust data set that has been enhanced for better consistency and updated for improved statistics. With reports of anthropogenic global warming such phenomenon appears physically counter intuitive but trend studies of surface temperature over the same time period show the occurrence of a similar asymmetry. Satellite surface temperature data show that while global warming is strong and dominant in the Arctic, it is relatively minor in the Antarctic with the trends in sea ice covered areas and surrounding ice free regions observed to be even negative. A strong correlation of ice extent with surface temperature is observed, especially during the growth season, and the observed trends in the sea ice cover are coherent with the trends in surface temperature. The trend of global averages of the ice cover is negative but modest and is consistent and compatible with the positive but modest trend in global surface temperature. A continuation of the trend would mean the disappearance of summer ice by the end of the century but modelling projections indicate that the summer ice could be salvaged if anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are kept constant at the current level.

  20. Global imprint of climate change on marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.;

    2013-01-01

    Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available...... studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a metadatabase of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver. Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected...

  1. Global Change and Regional Landscape Response and Desertification in Siberia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    V.M. PLYUSNIN; L.V. DANKO

    2011-01-01

    Climate changes and associated natural and anthropogenic processes have manifested themselves particularly clearly during the last two decades.The study of consequences of these changes has become one of the central scientific,social and political issues of our time (Pilot 2000;UNEP 2007).The study of the regional response of landscapes of Siberia to global changes is one of the fundamental tasks,aimed at ensuring the sustainable development of Siberian regions both at present time and in the future.Because in the 21 st century we should expect strong changes the humidity regime,accompanying the global warming (CCD 1994).

  2. Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fields, P.A.; Graham, J.B.; Rosenblatt, R.H.; Somero, G.N. (University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States). Scripps Institute of Oceanography)

    1993-10-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.

  3. Climate change damage functions in LCA – (1) from global warming potential to natural environment damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callesen, Ingeborg; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    Energy use often is the most significant contributor to the impact category ‘global warming’ in life cycle impact assessment. However, the potential global warming effects on the climate at regional level and consequential effects on the natural environment are not thoroughly described within LCA...... methodology. The current scientific understanding of the extent of climate change impacts is limited due to the immense complexity of the multi-factorial environmental changes and unknown adaptive capacities at process, species and ecosystem level. In the presentation we argue that the global warming impacts...

  4. Globalization of Gerontology Education: Current Practices and Perceptions for Graduate Gerontology Education in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwangi, Samuel M.; Yamashita, Takashi; Ewen, Heidi H.; Manning, Lydia K.; Kunkel, Suzanne R.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to document current practices and understandings about globalization of gerontology education in the United States. Better understanding of aging requires international perspectives in global communities. However, little is known about how globalization of gerontology education is practiced in U.S. graduate-level…

  5. Globalization of Gerontology Education: Current Practices and Perceptions for Graduate Gerontology Education in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwangi, Samuel M.; Yamashita, Takashi; Ewen, Heidi H.; Manning, Lydia K.; Kunkel, Suzanne R.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to document current practices and understandings about globalization of gerontology education in the United States. Better understanding of aging requires international perspectives in global communities. However, little is known about how globalization of gerontology education is practiced in U.S. graduate-level…

  6. Effects of three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P stoichiometry: a global synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Kai; Fornara, Dario A; Yang, Wanqin; Peng, Yan; Li, Zhijie; Wu, Fuzhong; Peng, Changhui

    2017-06-01

    Over the last few decades, there has been an increasing number of controlled-manipulative experiments to investigate how plants and soils might respond to global change. These experiments typically examined the effects of each of three global change drivers [i.e., nitrogen (N) deposition, warming, and elevated CO2 ] on primary productivity and on the biogeochemistry of carbon (C), N, and phosphorus (P) across different terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we capitalize on this large amount of information by performing a comprehensive meta-analysis (>2000 case studies worldwide) to address how C:N:P stoichiometry of plants, soils, and soil microbial biomass might respond to individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers. Our results show that (i) individual effects of N addition and elevated CO2 on C:N:P stoichiometry are stronger than warming, (ii) combined effects of pairs of global change drivers (e.g., N addition + elevated CO2 , warming + elevated CO2 ) on C:N:P stoichiometry were generally weaker than the individual effects of each of these drivers, (iii) additive interactions (i.e., when combined effects are equal to or not significantly different from the sum of individual effects) were more common than synergistic or antagonistic interactions, (iv) C:N:P stoichiometry of soil and soil microbial biomass shows high homeostasis under global change manipulations, and (v) C:N:P responses to global change are strongly affected by ecosystem type, local climate, and experimental conditions. Our study is one of the first to compare individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P ratios using a large set of data. To further improve our understanding of how ecosystems might respond to future global change, long-term ecosystem-scale studies testing multifactor effects on plants and soils are urgently required across different world regions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Global environmental change: local perceptions, understandings, and explanations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aili Pyhälä

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Global environmental change (GEC is an increasingly discussed phenomenon in the scientific literature as evidence of its presence and impacts continues to grow. Yet, while the documentation of GEC is becoming more readily available, local perceptions of GEC - particularly in small-scale societies - and preferences about how to deal with it, are still largely overlooked. Local knowledge and perceptions of GEC are important in that agents make decisions (including on natural resource management based on individual perceptions. We carried out a systematic literature review that aims to provide an exhaustive state-of-the-art of the degree to and manner in which the study of local perceptions of change are being addressed in GEC research. We reviewed 126 articles found in peer-reviewed journals (between 1998 and 2014 that address local perceptions of GEC. We used three particular lenses of analysis that are known to influence local perceptions, namely (i cognition, (ii culture and knowledge, and (iii possibilities for adaptation.We present our findings on the geographical distribution of the current research, the most common changes reported, perceived drivers and impacts of change, and local explanations and evaluations of change and impacts. Overall, we found the studies to be geographically biased, lacking methodological reporting, mostly theory based with little primary data, and lacking of indepth analysis of the psychological and ontological influences in perception and implications for adaptation. We provide recommendations for future GEC research and propose the development of a "meta-language" around adaptation, perception, and mediation to encourage a greater appreciation and understanding of the diversity around these phenomena across multiple scales, and improved codesign and facilitation of locally relevant adaptation and mitigation strategies.

  8. Global environmental change: local perceptions, understandings, and explanations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyhälä, Aili; Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Lehvävirta, Hertta; Byg, Anja; Ruiz-Mallén, Isabel; Salpeteur, Matthieu; Thornton, Thomas F.

    2016-01-01

    Global environmental change (GEC) is an increasingly discussed phenomenon in the scientific literature as evidence of its presence and impacts continues to grow. Yet, while the documentation of GEC is becoming more readily available, local perceptions of GEC— particularly in small-scale societies—and preferences about how to deal with it, are still largely overlooked. Local knowledge and perceptions of GEC are important in that agents make decisions (including on natural resource management) based on individual perceptions. We carried out a systematic literature review that aims to provide an exhaustive state-of-the-art of the degree to and manner in which the study of local perceptions of change are being addressed in GEC research. We reviewed 126 articles found in peer-reviewed journals (between 1998 and 2014) that address local perceptions of GEC. We used three particular lenses of analysis that are known to influence local perceptions, namely (i) cognition, (ii) culture and knowledge, and (iii) possibilities for adaptation.We present our findings on the geographical distribution of the current research, the most common changes reported, perceived drivers and impacts of change, and local explanations and evaluations of change and impacts. Overall, we found the studies to be geographically biased, lacking methodological reporting, mostly theory based with little primary data, and lacking of indepth analysis of the psychological and ontological influences in perception and implications for adaptation. We provide recommendations for future GEC research and propose the development of a “meta-language” around adaptation, perception, and mediation to encourage a greater appreciation and understanding of the diversity around these phenomena across multiple scales, and improved codesign and facilitation of locally relevant adaptation and mitigation strategies. PMID:27695479

  9. The NASA's Long-Term Global Solar Energy Resource: Current Solar Resource Variability and Future Improvements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stackhouse, P. W.; Cox, S. J.; Zhang, T.; Chandler, W.; Westberg, D.; Hoell, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Considering the likelihood of global climate change and the global competition for energy resources, there is an increasing need to provide improved global Earth surface solar resource information. The improved long-term records are needed to better understand and quantify potential shifts in the solar resource with anticipated changes in climatic weather patterns. As part of the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), NASA has an active Surface Radiation Budget project that has produced long-term global gridded estimates of the surface solar fluxes. These fluxes have been processed and made available to the solar energy community over the years through NASA's Surface meteorology and Solar Energy web site (SSE). This web site provides solar resource and accompanying meteorological variables specifically tailored to the renewable energy community spanning a 22 year period. The web application has been improved over time with usage growing nearly exponentially over the last few years. This paper presents the global and regional variability of the solar resource from the current data available at the SSE web application. The variability is compared for large different spatial scales and compared to other data sets where appropriate. We assess the interannual variability compared against surface sites and other satellite based data sets. These comparisons quantify the limits of usefulness of this data set. For instance, we find long-term linear trends that are dominated by satellite based artifacts in some areas, but agree well with surface measurements in others. Nevertheless, the extremes of solar variability are quantified and show agreement with surface observations good enough for most feasibility studies of solar energy systems. This presentation also contains a description of work currently on going to replace the current solar resource information available on SSE with a completely reprocessed version. The

  10. Current religious changes in Serbia and desecularization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blagojević Mirko

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available For the contemporary Serbian sociology of religion it is evident that the process of desecularization has been present on the social scene of Serbia in the last fifteen years. Sociologists have provided arguments for this claim based on data gathered in Serbia during this period. The religious changes in question have been empirically recorded in all aspects of attachment to religion (mainly Eastern Orthodoxy and the church (Serbian Orthodox Church, that is, in aspects of religious identification, doctrinal beliefs and religious behavior. Certain political subjects and social scientists feel that social life in Serbia is getting increasingly, and that religion and church are exerting influence within social fields they are not supposed to, if Serbia is to become a secular, democratic state. The paper analyzes some major conditions of the clericalization of the Serbian society.

  11. Current Changes in Portuguese School System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Helena Esteves

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available About 100 teachers participated in a study and helped to understand how new reforms are faced by those who work in the field, in the particular case of the discipline of geography. The study that was done with geography teachers after 10 years of national curriculum revealed many gaps in terms of what teachers are expected to do. Only recently, some legislation has been issued to regulate the kind of training teachers do as they progress in their teaching careers. The national curriculum for basic education is a huge step in terms of being a part of the world agenda in what concerns a modern teaching and a new vision of what schools should prepare students to, but the instruments of that change (teachers have been neglected.

  12. Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Marie

    Global change is expected to increasingly affect composition and functioning of soil communities. In terrestrial ecosystems, the plant-soil interactions will be of particular importance for the ecosystem response, including feed-back responses that may further increase climate change. The aim...... are able to determine effects of global change on the plant-soil system. By extraction and microscopy of nematode communities, we are able to characterize the trophic structure of a significant part of the rhizosphere community. The work compiled for this dissertation is based on field experiments...... effects. Furthermore, the plant functional type (shrub or grass) is more strongly determining the rhizosphere community structure than any global change factor. Frequent burning of prairie vegetation changes the soil community to an extent that alters the decomposition rate. Together, these results...

  13. Space-based Observation for sensitive Factors of Global Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Huadong

    2009-01-01

    @@ Global change refers to anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, pedosphere and lithosphere over the past century. It is a long process with large dimensions. Factors sensitive to these changes mainly include performance factors (such as temperature and precipitation), response factors (such as eco-system, natural disasters, water resources, variations in snow and ice), and driving factors (greenhouse gases and reflection rates). Global change has caught the attention of the world. China is one of the countries exerting a profound impact on this process. In addition, it has typical and unique zones vulnerable to global change: high-altitude regions (such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau), arid and semi-arid areas (such as farming-grazing transitional zones), long coastal zones and regions for intensive human activities.

  14. Impact of Geological Changes on Regional and Global Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova; Baranov, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    Periods of geological changes such as super continent cycle (300-500 million years), Wilson's cycles (300-900 million years), magmatic-tectonic cycle (150-200 million years), and cycles with smaller periods (22, 100, 1000 years) lead to a basic contradiction preventing forming methodology of the study of impact of geological changes on the global and regional economies. The reason of this contradiction is the differences of theoretical and methodological aspects of the Earth science and economics such as different time scales and accuracy of geological changes. At the present the geological models cannot provide accurate estimation of time and place where geological changes (strong earthquakes, volcanos) are expected. Places of feature (not next) catastrophic events are the only thing we have known. Thus, it is impossible to use the periodicity to estimate both geological changes and their consequences. Taking into accounts these factors we suggested a collection of concepts for estimating impact of possible geological changes on regional and global economies. We illustrated our approach by example of estimating impact of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 on regional and global economies. Based on this example we concluded that globalization processes increase an impact of geological changes on regional and global levels. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 16-06-00056, 16-32-00019, 16-05-00263A).

  15. Spin-up and adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and global pycnocline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, L. C.; Johnson, H. L.; Marshall, D. P.

    2012-04-01

    A theory is presented for the adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and global pycnocline to a sudden and sustained change in wind forcing. The adjustment timescale is controlled by the mesoscale eddy diffusivity across the ACC, the mean width of the ACC, the surface area of the ocean basins to the north, and deep water formation in the North Atlantic. In particular, northern sinking may have the potential to shorten the timescale and reduce its sensitivity to Southern Ocean eddies, but the relative importance of northern sinking and Southern Ocean eddies cannot be determined precisely, largely due to limitations in the parameterization of northern sinking. Although it is clear that the main processes that control the adjustment timescale are those which counteract the deepening of the global pycnocline, the theory also suggests that the timescale can be subtly modified by wind forcing over the ACC and global diapycnal mixing. Results from calculations with a reduced-gravity model compare well with the theory. The multidecadal-centennial adjustment timescale implies that long observational time series will be required to detect dynamic change in the ACC due to anthropogenic forcing. The potential role of Southern Ocean mesoscale eddy activity in determining both the equilibrium state of the ACC and the timescale over which it adjusts suggests that the response to anthropogenic forcing may be rather different in coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that parameterize and resolve mesoscale eddies.

  16. Role of Bioethanol in Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheehan, John [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    1998-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has supported a research and development program for the establishment of renewable, biomass-derived, liquid fuels for the better part of the last twenty years. These 'biofuels' represent opportunities to respond to uncertainties about our energy security and the future health of our environment. Throughout its history, the Biofuels program has experienced an ongoing fiscal 'roller coaster'. Funding has ebbed and flowed with changing political and public attitudes about energy. The program was initiated in a flood of funding in the late 1970s related to the energy shortages experienced in that period. The flooding turned rapidly to drought as falling oil prices dissipated public concern about energy supplies. In the late 1980s, funding for the program slowly increased, driven by national security issues.

  17. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.;

    and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. The report has been produced by a writing team comprised of members of the Scientific Steering Committee for the IARU Congress and individuals invited to give the writing team academic...... and geographic breadth. It is based on the 16 plenary talks given at the Congress as well as input from over 80 chairs and cochairs of the 58 parallel sessions held at the Congress. The names of the plenary speakers and the chairs and co-chairs of the parallel sessions can be found on the inside cover...... of this volume. The writing team has, in addition to presentations at the Congress, drawn upon recent publications in the scientific literature to create this synthesis. This report has been critically reviewed by representatives of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), by the parallel session chairs...

  18. Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Fred A.; Eaton, Mitchell; McMahon, Gerard; Raye Nilius,; Mike Bryant,; Dave Case,; Martin, Julien; Wood, Nathan J.; Laura Taylor,

    2015-01-01

    National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested

  19. Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred A. Johnson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge. The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1 efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2 develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of

  20. Geographic Disparities in Future Global Food Security : Exploring the Impacts of Population Development and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Helander, Hanna

    2017-01-01

    Meeting the food demands of a growing population is one of the currently most critical issues for the world community. Additionally, negative impacts of climate change on agriculture are expected in some densely populated regions of developing economies. In this thesis, I examine spatial patterns of future impacts of population development and climate change on food security and how these impacts correlate with current patterns of food security and poverty. I aim to assess the global spatial ...

  1. Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oriana Ovalle-Rivera

    Full Text Available Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.

  2. Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovalle-Rivera, Oriana; Läderach, Peter; Bunn, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Schroth, Götz

    2015-01-01

    Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee. PMID:25875230

  3. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  4. Enhancing Participation in the U.S. Global Change Research Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Washington, Warren; Lee, Kai; Arent, Doug; Avery, Susan; Chakos, Arrietta; Daszak, Peter; Dietz, Thomas; Ebi, Kristie L.; Fischhoff, Baruch; Grimm, Nancy B.; Jacoby, Henry; Janetos, Anthony C.; Kheshgi, Haroon S.; Moss, Richard H.; Noble, Ian; Oge, Margo; Segerson, Kathleen; Tierney, Kathleen; Vorosmarty, Charles J.

    2016-02-29

    The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to assist the United States and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change. As the understanding of global change has evolved over the past decades and as demand for scientific information on global change has increased, the USGCRP has increasingly focused on research that can inform decisions to cope with current climate variability and change, to reduce the magnitude of future changes, and to prepare for changes projected over coming decades. Overall, the current breadth and depth of research in these agencies is insufficient to meet the country's needs, particularly to support decision makers. This report provides a rationale for evaluating current program membership and capabilities and identifying potential new agencies and departments in the hopes that these changes will enable the program to more effectively inform the public and prepare for the future. It also offers actionable recommendations for adjustments to the methods and procedures that will allow the program to better meet its stated goals.

  5. The current global status of Chinese materia medica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xinmin; Zou, Jiangqiang; Sheng, Zhixiang; Su, Guangqiang; Chen, Shilin

    2009-10-01

    The Chinese government has recently established a national project to improve the standards of Chinese Materia Medica (CMM) products, particularly regarding their quality control and safety evaluation, in order to promote modernization and increase international trade. In 2006, the global sales value of Chinese medicinal products increased to 20 billion US$, and the export value of CMM was up to more than 1 billion US$. However, the standard of these products still needs to be improved to meet the more stringent requirements of the international markets. Over the past decade we have witnessed the increasing growth in popularity of health foods and herbal medicinal products, especially Chinese Materia Medica products (CMM).

  6. The CAWSES Global Observing Campaign on Tides: Current Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, W. E.; Gerding, M.; Goncharenko, L.; Keckhut, P.; Marsh, D.; Oberheide, J.; Rao, D. N.; Scheer, .; Singer, W.

    2007-05-01

    The CAWSES Global Tidal Campaign was initiated to encourage collaboration between satellite and ground based observations and to identify features in various observation types consistent with specific components. This project is one of several sponsored under Theme 3, Atmospheric Coupling Processes, of the international Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System program (CAWSES, a SCOSTEP sponsored program). The overall goal of the campaign is to provide global data sets for several concentrated time periods over the next few years which includes coordinated ground-based and satellite measurements and modeling efforts. To unambiguously resolve the tidal components present in the Earth's atmosphere requires spatial and temporal sampling sufficient to resolve wavenumbers up to at least 5 and periods down to 4.8 hours every two to three days. Neither satellite or ground based observations on their own are capable of achieving these goals. Interpretation of tidal signatures in different observables (for example wind and temperature) is complicated by the fact the the associated latitudinal structures are typically different. A global network is required to allow these structures to be examined. Three campaign periods have been sceduled to date. The first tidal campaign took place from September 1 to October 31, 2005 and this year two campaigns, March 1 to April 31, and June 1 to August 15 are planned. The first of these latter campaigns will concentrate on the global tidal structures during equinox and their evolution and variability during this time period. The second of these campaigns will address the tidal structures during solstice conditions. Strong hemispheric asymmetries are know to develop in the structure of the migrating diurnal tide and it is of interest to determine the form of other components. These campaigns will allow the characterization of the heating sources, tidal components (migrating and nonmigrating), and tidal effects from the surface of the

  7. Asbestos case and its current implications for global health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Marsili

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Notwithstanding a major body of evidence on the carcinogenicity of all asbestos fibres and a general consensus of the scientific community on the health impact of this agent, asbestos is still produced and used in a large number of countries, thus determining further harm for future generations. Prevention of asbestos-related disease requires international cooperation, transfer of know-how and dissemination of successful procedures in order to contrast asbestos exposure in the frame of a global environmental health approach.

  8. Globalization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范玮丽

    2008-01-01

    This paper mainly talks about the currently hot topic-globalization. Firstly, it brings out the general trend about globalization and how to better understand its implication. Secondly, it largely focuses on how to deal with it properly, especially for international marketers. Then, facing with the overwhelming trend, it is time for us to think about seriously what has globalization brought to us. Last but not least, it summarized the author's personal view about the future of globalization and how should we go.

  9. Defining health diplomacy: changing demands in the era of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Rebecca; Kornblet, Sarah; Arnold, Grace; Lief, Eric; Fischer, Julie E

    2011-09-01

    Accelerated globalization has produced obvious changes in diplomatic purposes and practices. Health issues have become increasingly preeminent in the evolving global diplomacy agenda. More leaders in academia and policy are thinking about how to structure and utilize diplomacy in pursuit of global health goals. In this article, we describe the context, practice, and components of global health diplomacy, as applied operationally. We examine the foundations of various approaches to global health diplomacy, along with their implications for the policies shaping the international public health and foreign policy environments. Based on these observations, we propose a taxonomy for the subdiscipline. Expanding demands on global health diplomacy require a delicate combination of technical expertise, legal knowledge, and diplomatic skills that have not been systematically cultivated among either foreign service or global health professionals. Nonetheless, high expectations that global health initiatives will achieve development and diplomatic goals beyond the immediate technical objectives may be thwarted by this gap. The deepening links between health and foreign policy require both the diplomatic and global health communities to reexamine the skills, comprehension, and resources necessary to achieve their mutual objectives. © 2011 Milbank Memorial Fund. Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.

  10. Defining Health Diplomacy: Changing Demands in the Era of Globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Rebecca; Kornblet, Sarah; Arnold, Grace; Lief, Eric; Fischer, Julie E

    2011-01-01

    Context: Accelerated globalization has produced obvious changes in diplomatic purposes and practices. Health issues have become increasingly preeminent in the evolving global diplomacy agenda. More leaders in academia and policy are thinking about how to structure and utilize diplomacy in pursuit of global health goals. Methods: In this article, we describe the context, practice, and components of global health diplomacy, as applied operationally. We examine the foundations of various approaches to global health diplomacy, along with their implications for the policies shaping the international public health and foreign policy environments. Based on these observations, we propose a taxonomy for the subdiscipline. Findings: Expanding demands on global health diplomacy require a delicate combination of technical expertise, legal knowledge, and diplomatic skills that have not been systematically cultivated among either foreign service or global health professionals. Nonetheless, high expectations that global health initiatives will achieve development and diplomatic goals beyond the immediate technical objectives may be thwarted by this gap. Conclusions: The deepening links between health and foreign policy require both the diplomatic and global health communities to reexamine the skills, comprehension, and resources necessary to achieve their mutual objectives. PMID:21933277

  11. Zika virus: Global health challenge, threat and current situation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz, Hafsa; Zia, Aadarash; Anwer, Amania; Aziz, Muneeba; Fatima, Shazia; Faheem, Muhammad

    2017-06-01

    ZIKV has emerged as grave global health issue in the past few years. ZIKV was firstly isolated in 1947 from a rhesus sentinel monkey in the Zika forest in Uganda. It is usually transmitted by the bite of infected mosquitoes and infects skin fibroblasts, skin keratinocytes, etc. ZIKV until now was under reported because of its clinical similarity with the dengue and chikungunya. It is usually spread through the course of the sylvatic cycle. In this cycle, the virus or pathogen lifespan is spent between the wild animal and vectors. The intrinsic incubation period is not yet fully known but it is observed that the very first symptoms of ZIKV infection can appear or develop within 3-12 days of time period and usually subside within 7 days of time. There is a strong relationship between prenatal Zika virus infection and microcephaly; other serious brain anomalies to the infant or newborn are Guillain-Barré syndrome. To date no vaccines are available for ZIKV prevention hence only symptomatic treatment is recommended in infected patients. Usually ZIKV is detected by serologic (IgM ELISA), plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) along with in-house" molecular techniques (RT-PCR). ZIKV infection being imminent global health issue warrants strong protective measures to prevent it from becoming an epidemic. Early detection and prevention is the key to tackle this grave potential health hazard. J. Med. Virol. 89:943-951, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  13. A Tale of Two Minds: Psychology and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, George S.

    2010-01-01

    The American Psychological Association recently released its Presidential Task Force report on Psychology and Global Climate Change. Its principles and proposals would inaugurate a long and productive program of psychological research on climate change. But is it too little, too late? Climatologists have been growing progressively gloomier over…

  14. Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf; S.L. Goodrick

    2009-01-01

    The trend in global wildfire potential under the climate change due to the greenhouse effect is investigated. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is calculated using the observed maximum temperature and precipitation and projected changes at the end of this century (2070–2100) by general circulation models (GCMs) for present and...

  15. Global change pressures on soils from land use and management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smith, Pete; House, Joanna I.; Bustamante, Mercedes; Kuikman, Peter; Pugh, Thomas A.M.

    2016-01-01

    Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land-use change, land

  16. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  17. Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Marie

    Global change is expected to increasingly affect composition and functioning of soil communities. In terrestrial ecosystems, the plant-soil interactions will be of particular importance for the ecosystem response, including feed-back responses that may further increase climate change. The aim...... (Paper III). Furthermore, by way of meta-analysis, the role of organisms in global change effects on ecosystem function is modelled (Paper IV). Among CO2, warming and summer drought, CO2 is the factor most consistently impacting soil organisms. CO2 increases abundance of microorganisms and nematodes...... of this dissertation has been to determine how soil food web structure and function is affected when the quantity and quality of plant input is altered under global change. By studying the abundance and composition of soil organisms, particularly those in the rhizosphere, closely associated with living plants, we...

  18. Scope of work: Effects of global climate change on agroecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, D.L.

    1989-08-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development (ORD), is initiating a Global Climate Change Program to evaluate the potential environmental effects of climate change. This document describes one project, Effects of Global Climate Change on Agroecosystems, which will be administered at the EPA Environmental Research Laboratory-Corvallis as part of the ORD program. The document describes the areas in which research will be undertaken in the project over the next five years. The document presents the scientific questions that must be addressed in order to answer important public-policy needs concerning the potential environmental effects of global climate change on agroecosystems and it describes the general-research approaches that will be used to answer the scientific questions.

  19. Linking the Mediterranean regional and the global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lionello, Piero; Scarascia, Luca

    2017-04-01

    This contribution analyzes 22 CMIP5 global climate projections to show how is the regional climate change in the Mediterranean related to the global climate change. The aim is to use these recent results to revisit evidences suggesting that the Mediterranean region is a climate change hot spot. Results show that future increase of temperature in the Mediterranean region has a strong seasonal connotation, with summer warming at a pace 40% larger than the global mean. This future trend is consistent with the global reduction of the meridional temperature gradient that is produced by climate change. However spatial distribution of changes shows a strong a sub-regional modulation depending of the land-sea contrast, the role of soil moisture feedback and changes of large scale atmospheric circulation leading to increased subsidence conditions. Projections show that precipitation decrease will affect most of the region, but with a strong difference between southern and northern areas, where CMIP5 projections suggest a 7% and 3% decrease of annual precipitation for each degree of global warming, respectively. For both Mediterranean temperature and precipitation, the dependence is substantially linear in the range up to 40C of global warming. Interannual variability and intermodel differences are a substantial source of uncertainty for precipitation (while there is a robust consensus for temperature changes). Therefore, future precipitation changes are still a controversial issue, in terms of intensity and precise location of the transition belt that separates the decrease of precipitation over the MR from areas in central and northern Europe, where precipitation is expected to increase. On this respect, though the overall drying trend appears consolidated in the scientific literature, its precise evaluation remains to some extent controversial.

  20. Is there a technological fix for the current global stagnation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundvall, Bengt-Åke

    2016-01-01

    Daniele Archibugi asks whether the 2007–8 financial and economic crisis was brought about by the exhaustion of the current techno-economic paradigm, and whether a new paradigm will lead to eventual recovery. My answer to both questions is ‘No’. Whilst it is useful to think in terms of techno...

  1. Current Voices of Reforms in American Education: Ethnocentrism or Globalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Rubaiy, Abdul A.

    An analysis of four major reports on the current quality of education in the United States turned up very little concern for international education. "A Nation at Risk" and the reports of the Education Commission of the States, the Twentieth Century Fund, and the Carnegie Commission for the Advancement of Teaching were examined and the…

  2. Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ecosystems Working Group,

    1998-09-23

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Models and experiments are equally important for developing process-level understanding into a predictive capability. To support both the development and testing of mechanistic ecosystem models, a two-tiered design of ecosystem experiments should be used. This design should include both (1) large-scale manipulative experiments for comprehensive testing of integrated ecosystem models and (2) multifactor, multilevel experiments for parameterization of process models across the critical range of interacting environmental factors (CO{sub 2}, temperature, water

  3. Domestic change in the face of European Integration and Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2011-01-01

    Before the early 2000s, research on Europeanization and globalization developed largely independently of each other. Since then a limited, yet increasing, number of studies have shown an interest in investigating and differentiating between the domestic implications of European integration - known...... as Europeanization - and trends which are usually seen as having a broader global application including market liberalization, the construction of global institutions and policies. While research concerned with domestic change in the face of European integration and globalization in itself is a reaction to pressing...... accounts of domestic change. Drawing on methodologies known from comparative politics and discourse analysis, the article argues in favour of three methodological moves: (1) from top-down towards bottom-up methodological set-ups; (2) from counterfactual analysis towards compound temporal comparative...

  4. Using Argumentation to Foster Learning about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, B. W.

    2012-12-01

    Given the complexity of the science involving climate change (IPCC, 2007), its lack of curricular focus within US K-12 schooling (Golden, 2009), and the difficulty in effecting conceptual change in science (Vosniadou, 2007), we sought to research middle school students' conceptions about climate change, in addition to how those conceptions changed during and as a result of a deliberately designed global climate change (GCC) unit. In a sixth grade classroom, a unit was designed which incorporated Argumentation-Driven Inquiry (Sampson & Grooms, 2010). That is, students were assigned to groups and asked to make sense of standard GCC data such as paleoclimate data from ice cores, direct temperature measurement, and Keeling curves, in addition to learning about the greenhouse effect in a modeling lesson (Hocking, et al, 1993). The students were then challenged, in groups, to create, on whiteboards, explanations and defend these explanations to and with their peers. They did two iterations of this argumentation. The first iteration focused on the simple identification of climate change patterns. The second focused on developing causal explanations for those patterns. After two rounds of such argumentation, the students were then asked to write (individually) a "final" argument which accounted for the given data. Interview and written data were analyzed prior to the given unit, during it, and after it, in order to capture complicated nuance that might escape detection by simpler research means such as surveys. Several findings emerged which promised to be of interest to climate change educators. The first is that many students tended to "know" many "facts" about climate change, but were unable to connect these disparate facts in any meaningful ways. A second finding is that while no students changed their entire belief systems, even after a robust unit which would seemingly challenge such, each student engaged did indeed modify the manner in which they discussed the

  5. Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

    2011-10-15

    During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

  6. Global change and terrestrial hydrology — a review

    OpenAIRE

    Robert E. Dickinson

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models are considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.DOI: 10.103...

  7. Global change and terrestrial hydrology–a review

    OpenAIRE

    Robert E. Dickinson

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models are considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.DOI: 10.103...

  8. Hot house global climate change and the human condition

    CERN Document Server

    Strom, Robert G

    2007-01-01

    Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including t

  9. Globalization and post-Islamic revolution: a changing Iranian woman

    OpenAIRE

    KHAKI G.N.; MIR GOUSIA

    2015-01-01

    Globalization and its core components like modernization, secularization, democracy etc. have become most debatable issues in the post-Revolution Iran. There has been a significant impact of globalization over the changing socio-religious milieu of contemporary Iranian society. Iranian women''s position has also come under its profound influence. In the last three decades, the position of Iranian women has come through different development perspectives. While resisting the Islamization polic...

  10. Globalization at Risk: The Changing Preferences of States and Societies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James M. Quirk

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available After long, wide trends toward freer and more integratedmarkets, peoples and ideas, reluctance to subordinate the ideals of globalization to state interests shows signs of serious erosion. Recent examples include the breakdown of international institutions, the rise in state control over energy resources and their use as diplomatic leverage, and US abandonment of the principles of globalization. The sources of these changing preferences are both ideological and utilitarian. The result is that key elements of globalization are at risk, but with unpredictable consequences.

  11. Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gascuel, Didier; Colléter, Mathieu; Palomares, Maria L. D.; Du Pontavice, Hubert; Pauly, Daniel; Cheung, William W. L.

    2017-01-01

    The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950–2010 time-periods. Global trends were identified and cluster analyses were used to characterize the variability of trends between ecosystems. Results showed that the most common pattern over the study period is a global decrease in TCI, while the ECI indicator tends to increase. Thus, changes in species assemblages would induce faster and apparently more efficient biomass transfers in marine food webs. Results also suggested that the main driver of change over that period had been the large increase in fishing pressure. The largest changes occurred in ecosystems where ‘fishing down the marine food web’ are most intensive. PMID:28800358

  12. The sustainable management and protection of forests: analysis of the current position globally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer-Smith, Peter; Carnus, Jean-Michel

    2008-06-01

    The loss of forest area globally due to change of land use, the importance of forests in the conservation of biodiversity and in carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, together with the threat to forests from pollution and from the impacts of climate change, place forestry policy and practice at the center of global environmental and sustainability strategy. Forests provide important economic, environmental, social, and cultural benefits, so that in forestry, as in other areas of environmental policy and management, there are tensions between economic development and environmental protection. In this article we review the current information on global forest cover and condition, examine the international processes that relate to forest protection and to sustainable forest management, and look at the main forest certification schemes. We consider the link between the international processes and certification schemes and also their combined effectiveness. We conclude that in some regions of the world neither mechanism is achieving forest protection, while in others local or regional implementation is occurring and is having a significant impact. Choice of certification scheme and implementation of management standards are often influenced by a consideration of the associated costs, and there are some major issues over the monitoring of agreed actions and of the criteria and indicators of sustainability. There are currently a number of initiatives seeking to improve the operation of the international forestry framework (e.g., The Montreal Process, the Ministerial Convention of the Protection of Forests in Europe and European Union actions in Europe, the African Timber Organisation and International Tropical Timber Organisation initiative for African tropical forest, and the development of a worldwide voluntary agreement on forestry in the United Nations Forum on Forests). We suggest that there is a need to improve the connections between scientific understanding

  13. Health, fairness and New Zealand's contribution to global post-2020 climate change action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Hayley; Macmillan, Alex; Jones, Rhys

    2015-05-29

    Health and wellbeing have been largely ignored in discussions around climate change targets and action to date. The current public consultation around New Zealand's post-2020 climate target is an opportunity for health professionals to highlight the health implications of climate change. Without urgent global efforts to bring down global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions, the world is heading towards high levels of global warming, which will have devastating impacts on human health and wellbeing. New Zealand's action to bring down GHG emissions (as part of the global effort) has potential to improve health and reduce costs on the health sector, if health and fairness are put at the centre of policies to address climate change. New Zealand should commit to at least 40 % reductions in GHG emissions by 2030, and zero carbon emissions before 2050, with healthy and fair policies across sectors to enable reaching these targets.

  14. Highly intense lightning over the oceans: Estimated peak currents from global GLD360 observations

    OpenAIRE

    İnan, Umran Savaş; Said, R. K.; Cohen, M. B

    2013-01-01

    We present the ?rst global distribution of the average estimated peak currents in negative lightning ?ashes using 1 year of continuous data from the Vaisala global lightning data set GLD360. The data set, composed of 353 million ?ashes, was compared with the National Lightning Detection NetworkTM for peak current accuracy, location accuracy, and detection ef?ciency. The validation results demonstrated a mean (geometric mean) peak current magnitude error of 21% (6%), a median lo...

  15. Global change and biodiversity loss: Some impediments to response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borza, Karen; Jamieson, Dale

    1991-01-01

    Discussed here are the effects of anthropogenic global climate change on biodiversity. The focus is on human responses to the problem. Greenhouse warming-induced climate change may shift agricultural growing belts, reduce forests of the Northern Hemisphere and drive many species to extinction, among other effects. If these changes occur together with the mass extinctions already occurring, we may suffer a profound loss of biological diversity.

  16. Mission to Planet Earth: A program to understand global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    A description of Mission to Planet Earth, a program to understand global environmental change, is presented. Topics discussed include: changes in the environment; global warming; ozone depletion; deforestation; and NASA's role in global change research.

  17. Agile Data Management with the Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Goldstein, J.

    2013-12-01

    We describe experiences applying agile software development techniques to the realm of data management during the development of the Global Change Information System (GCIS), a web service and API for authoritative global change information under development by the US Global Change Research Program. Some of the challenges during system design and implementation have been : (1) balancing the need for a rigorous mechanism for ensuring information quality with the realities of large data sets whose contents are often in flux, (2) utilizing existing data to inform decisions about the scope and nature of new data, and (3) continuously incorporating new knowledge and concepts into a relational data model. The workflow for managing the content of the system has much in common with the development of the system itself. We examine various aspects of agile software development and discuss whether or how we have been able to use them for data curation as well as software development.

  18. Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M. B.; Harris, A. W.

    2008-12-01

    When allocating resources to address threats, decision makers are best served by having objective assessments of the relative magnitude of the threats in question. Asteroids greater than about 1 km in diameter are assumed by the planetary impact community to exceed a "global catastrophe threshold". Impacts from smaller objects are expected to cause local or regional destruction, and would be the proximate cause of most associated fatalities. Impacts above the threshold would be expected to alter the climate, killing billions of people and causing a collapse of civilization. In this apocalyptic scenario, only a small fraction of the casualties would be attributable to direct effects of the impact: the blast wave, thermal radiation, debris, ground motion, or tsunami. The vast majority of deaths would come later and be due to indirect causes: starvation, disease, or violence as a consequence of societal disruption related to the impact-induced global climate change. The concept of a catastrophe threshold comes from "nuclear winter" studies, which form the basis for quantitative estimates of the consequences of a large impact. The probability estimates come from astronomical observations and statistical analysis. Much of the impact threat, at its core, is a climate-change threat. Prior to the Spaceguard Survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), the chance of dying from an asteroid impact was estimated to be 1 in 25,000 (Chapman & Morrison, 1994). Most of the large asteroids have now been discovered, and none is on an impact trajectory. Moreover, new data show that mid-sized asteroids (tens to hundreds of meters across) are less abundant than previously thought, by a factor of three. We now estimate that the lifetime odds of being killed by the impact of one of the remaining undiscovered NEOs are about one in 720,000 for individuals with a life expectancy of 80 years (Harris, 2008). One objective way to compare the relative magnitude of the impact threat to that of

  19. Migration and global environmental change: methodological lessons from mountain areas of the global South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milan, A.; Gioli, G.; Afifi, T.

    2015-06-01

    The relationship between migration and environmental and climatic changes is a crucial yet understudied factor influencing mountain livelihoods in the global South. These livelihoods are often characterized by high prevalence of family farming, widespread dependence on natural resources, and high sensitivity to climatic changes. Except for a limited number of empirical case studies, the literature on migration and global environmental change has not yet moved beyond case study results to address and explain global patterns and specificities of migration in mountain areas of the global South. After an introduction to the topic, the authors present a new synthesis of three field studies combining household surveys, participatory research approach (PRA) tools and key informant interviews in Pakistan, Peru, and Tanzania. This article suggests that the systematic use of transdisciplinary approaches, with a combination of quantitative and qualitative empirical methods, is the key to understanding global migration patterns in rural mountain areas of the global South. The results of our synthesis suggests that survey data should be triangulated with PRA results as well as secondary data in order to build household profiles connecting vulnerability (measured through a multidimensional index) with human mobility patterns. Such profiles can be conducive to better understand the feedback processes between livelihoods and mobility patterns both within each case study and across case studies, helping researchers to draw general lessons.

  20. Global imprint of climate change on marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

    2013-01-01

    Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available...... studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a metadatabase of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver. Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected......, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response. From this database, 81–83% of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change...

  1. Global inter-annual gravity changes from GRACE: Early results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, J.

    2005-01-01

    with an accuracy of 0.4 muGal corresponding to 9 mm water thickness on spatial scales longer than 1300 km. Four of the most widely used global hydrological models have been investigated for their spatial comparison with GRACE observations of inter-annual gravity field variations due to changes in continental water...... storage. The Global Land Data Assimilation System model has a spatial correlation coefficient with GRACE observations of 0.65 over the northern hemisphere. This demonstrates that the observed gravity field changes on these scales are largely related to changes in continental water storage.......Fifteen monthly gravity field solutions from the GRACE twin satellites launched more than two years ago have been studied to estimate gravity field changes between 2002 and 2003. The results demonstrate that GRACE is capable of capturing the changes in ground water on inter-annual scales...

  2. Evolutionary responses to global change: lessons from invasive species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Emily V; Alexander, Jake M

    2014-05-01

    Biologists have recently devoted increasing attention to the role of rapid evolution in species' responses to environmental change. However, it is still unclear what evolutionary responses should be expected, at what rates, and whether evolution will save populations at risk of extinction. The potential of biological invasions to provide useful insights has barely been realised, despite the close analogies to species responding to global change, particularly climate change; in both cases, populations encounter novel climatic and biotic selection pressures, with expected evolutionary responses occurring over similar timescales. However, the analogy is not perfect, and invasive species are perhaps best used as an upper bound on expected change. In this article, we review what invasive species can and cannot teach us about likely evolutionary responses to global change and the constraints on those responses. We also discuss the limitations of invasive species as a model and outline directions for future research. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  3. Global energy and environmental security in the current global economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kosov Yuri

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This article considers the problems of the environmental impact of energy. Further reduction of this impact on the global environment can be achieved two ways. The short-term one implies the increase in energy efficiency. In the next 15—20 years, the increase in efficiency should become a priority of the energy policy of all states. The long-term one is based on the gradual expansion of renewable energy. This method is aimed to avoid further economic and energy crises. At the same time, it has an important environmental aspect. Experts claim that the new area of global energy should be less costly than the traditional ones.

  4. Global energy and environmental security in the current global economic crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Kosov Yuri; Mallon Vim

    2010-01-01

    This article considers the problems of energy sector environmental impact. Further reduction of the global energy sector impact on the global environment can be achieved by two methods. The first, short-term one implies the increase in energy efficiency. In the next 15—20 years, the increase in the efficiency should become a priority of the energy policy of all states. The second, long-term method is based on the gradual expansion of the scope of re-newable energy application. This method is ...

  5. Current Global Almond Trade and Its Consumption Patterns Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    This article aims to investigate the current situation of the international almond trade and its consumption patterns.Traditionally, almonds are characterized by their good taste and high quality and regarded as an ideal source of several natural health nutrients. At present, the United States is the leading almond producer and exporter in the world, accompanied by Germany, Spain and Japan, the biggest almond importing countries. In order to study almond consumption patterns, two indicators were used in our study, the Food Consumer Location Ratio (FCLR) and the Food Consumer Location Relative Ratio (FCLRR). Furthermore, to identify the almond consumption groups, we carried out two cluster analyses based on FCLR and FCLRR values. Finally, an analysis of the factors which have an impact on a country's almond consumption was conducted. It shows that income level, endowment of resources and tradition as well as dietary habits are key factors that help to shape a country's almond consumption pattern.

  6. The global HIV epidemic: current status and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdool Karim, Quarraisha

    2013-06-01

    Three decades after the first reported cases of AIDS we have within our reach sufficient evidence to substantially alter the HIV epidemic at a country level regardless of mode of transmission of HIV. There are a growing number of countries demonstrating control of the epidemic. Human rights violations and/or legislation relating to sexual orientation, status of minors, injecting drug use and sex work together with stigma and discrimination remain key barriers to knowledge of HIV status and access to appropriate services. The use of anti-retrovirals prophylactically to reduce sexual and vertical transmission and systemically to treat infected infants and adults is central to the optimism in responses to the epidemic. In the current fiscal climate careful thought needs to be given to how to efficiently optimise combinations of what is available to have the biggest impact in the context of limited human and infrastructure resources.

  7. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.

  8. Provenance Representation in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is a topic that has become very controversial despite strong support within the scientific community. It is common for agencies releasing information about climate change to be served with Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for everything that led to that conclusion. Capturing and presenting the provenance, linking to the research papers, data sets, models, analyses, observation instruments and satellites, etc. supporting key findings has the potential to mitigate skepticism in this domain. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is now coordinating the production of a National Climate Assessment (NCA) that presents our best understanding of global change. We are now developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will present the content of that report and its provenance, including the scientific support for the findings of the assessment. We are using an approach that will present this information both through a human accessible web site as well as a machine readable interface for automated mining of the provenance graph. We plan to use the developing W3C PROV Data Model and Ontology for this system.

  9. Delivering Global Environmental Change Science Through Documentary Film

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodgson, K.; Byrne, J. M.; Graham, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    Communicating authentic science to society presents a significant challenge to researchers. This challenge stems from unfortunate misrepresentation and misunderstanding in the mainstream media, particularly in relation to science on global environmental change. This has resulted in a lower level of confidence and interest amongst audiences in regards to global environmental change and anthropogenic climate change discussions. This project describes a new form of documentary film that aspires to break this trend and increase audiences’ interest, reinvigorating discussion about global environmental change. The documentary film adopts a form that marries traditional scientific presentation with the high entertainment value of narrative storytelling. This format maintains the authenticity of the scientific message and ensures audience engagement throughout the entire presentation due to the fact that a sense of equality and intimacy between the audience and the scientists is achieved. The film features interviews with scientists studying global environmental change and opens with a comparison of authentic scientific information and the mainstream media’s presentation, and subsequent public opinion. This enables an analysis of the growing disconnect between society and the scientific community. Topics investigated include: Arctic ice melt, coastal zone hypoxia, tropical cyclones and acidification. Upon completion of the film, public and private screenings with predetermined audience demographics will be conducted using a short, standardized survey to gain feedback regarding the audience’s overall review of the presentation. In addition to the poster, this presentation features an extended trailer for the documentary film.

  10. Towards quantifying the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broeke, M.R.

    2006-01-01

    At present, the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and its contribution to global sea level change are poorly known. Current methods to determine AIS mass balance as well as the inherent uncertainties are discussed. Special emphasis is placed on the increasingly important role of regional

  11. Thermodynamic contributions of deforestation to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bell, A.

    2009-07-01

    This paper examines a portion of the thermodynamics of global warming. The calculations use the endothermic photosynthesis reaction and yearly measures of CO{sub 2} uptake to determine the amount of energy that is absorbed by forest cover each year. The energy absorption value of forest coverage determines the yearly cost of deforestation. The calculations reveal that 3.92 * 10{sup 15} kJ less solar energy is absorbed by global forest coverage because of deforestation each year. The energy is enough to warm the atmosphere by 0.00008 °C / year. By comparison the same amount of energy represents 0.001 % of the atmospheric energy gains between 1995 and 2003. The results of this paper raise questions about the nature of global warming and the possibility that thermodynamic contributions to global climate change are significant. (author)

  12. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  13. Global Governance for Health: how to motivate political change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeill, D; Ottersen, O P

    2015-07-01

    In this article, we address a central theme that was discussed at the Durham Health Summit: how can politics be brought back into global health governance and figure much more prominently in discussions around policy? We begin by briefly summarizing the report of the Lancet - University of Oslo Commission on Global Governance for Health: 'The Political Origins of Health Inequity' Ottersen et al. In order to provide compelling evidence of the central argument, the Commission selected seven case studies relating to, inter alia, economic and fiscal policy, food security, and foreign trade and investment agreements. Based on an analysis of these studies, the report concludes that the problems identified are often due to political choices: an unwillingness to change the global system of governance. This raises the question: what is the most effective way that a report of this kind can be used to motivate policy-makers, and the public at large, to demand change? What kind of moral or rational argument is most likely to lead to action? In this paper we assess the merits of various alternative perspectives: health as an investment; health as a global public good; health and human security; health and human development; health as a human right; health and global justice. We conclude that what is required in order to motivate change is a more explicitly political and moral perspective - favouring the later rather than the earlier alternatives just listed.

  14. Locating Biodiversity Data Through The Global Change Master Directory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Lola M.

    1998-01-01

    The Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) presently holds descriptions for almost 7000 data sets held worldwide. The directory's primary purpose is for data discovery. The information provided through the GCMD's Directory Interchange Format (DIF) is the set of information that a researcher would need to determine if a particular data set could be of value. By offering data set descriptions worldwide in many scientific disciplines - including meteorology, oceanography, ecology, geology, hydrology, geophysics, remote sensing, paleoclimate, solar-terrestrial physics, and human dimensions of climate change - the GCMD simplifies the discovery of data sources. Direct linkages to many of the data sets are also provided. In addition, several data set registration tools are offered for populating the directory. To search the directory, one may choose the Guided Search or Free-Text Search. Two experimental interfaces were also made available with the latest software release - one based on a keyword search and another based on a graphical interface. The graphical interface was designed in collaboration with the Human Computer Interaction Laboratory at the University of Maryland. The latest version of the software, Version 6, was released in April, 1998. It features the implementation of a scheme to handle hierarchical data set collections (parent-child relationships); a hierarchical geospatial location search scheme; a Java-based geographic map for conducting geospatial searches; a Related-URL field for project-related data set collections, metadata extensions (such as more detailed inventory information), etc.; a new implementation of the Isite software; a new dataset language field; hyperlinked email addresses, and more. The key to the continued evolution of the GCMD is in the flexibility of the GCMD database, allowing modifications and additions to made relatively easily to maintain currency, thus providing the ability to capitalize on current technology while importing

  15. Numerical analysis of global ionospheric current system including the effect of equatorial enhancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Tsunomura

    Full Text Available A modeling method is proposed to derive a two-dimensional ionospheric layer conductivity, which is appropriate to obtain a realistic solution of the polar-originating ionospheric current system including equatorial enhancement. The model can be obtained by modifying the conventional, thin shell conductivity model. It is shown that the modification for one of the non-diagonal terms (Σθφ in the conductivity tensor near the equatorial region is very important; the term influences the profile of the ionospheric electric field around the equator drastically. The proposed model can reproduce well the results representing the observed electric and magnetic field signatures of geomagnetic sudden commencement. The new model is applied to two factors concerning polar-originating ionospheric current systems. First, the latitudinal profile of the DP2 amplitude in the daytime is examined, changing the canceling rate for the dawn-to-dusk electric field by the region 2 field-aligned current. It is shown that the equatorial enhancement would not appear when the ratio of the total amount of the region 2 field-aligned current to that of region 1 exceeds 0.5. Second, the north-south asymmetry of the magnetic fields in the summer solstice condition of the ionospheric conductivity is examined by calculating the global ionospheric current system covering both hemispheres simultaneously. It is shown that the positive relationship between the magnitudes of high latitude magnetic fields and the conductivity is clearly seen if a voltage generator is given as the source, while the relationship is vague or even reversed for a current generator. The new model, based on the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI model, can be applied to further investigations in the quantitative analysis of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling problems.

    Key words. Ionosphere (electric fields and currents; equatorial ionosphere; ionosphere

  16. Educating About Global Climate Change With A Cultural Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, C.; Fessenden, J.; Kanjorski, N.; Hall, M. K.

    2004-12-01

    Predominantly minority populated schools in Northern New Mexico are plagued by low standardized test scores and high drop-out rates. The school system is currently failing students, and success in science is reliant on self-motivation among students. In order for students to gain momentum in a system where exposure to science is not prevalent, it is important for them to get outside support that catalyzes their interest. Collaboration between Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Science Education Solutions (SES), and local schools has been established to identify student needs and provide them with the opportunity to engage in science through hands-on experience with world-class scientists. Students are being introduced to the prospects of a scientific career while getting the unique chance to explore different aspects of several LANL scientists' research. This initiative also incorporates cultural awareness efforts to promote parent and community involvement. In the past year, two pilot projects were carried out to test the concepts, goals, and methods of the collaboration. One pilot project used plant growth studies in predominantly Hispanic fifth-grade classrooms to stimulate student interest. Students explored tree ring cores and tested water-use efficiency with sponges. The other pilot project included a two-day workshop for Native American students from Jemez Pueblo focusing on global climate change. This project combined a class component and hands-on field research. Samples were taken from LANL research sites with in-field lessons from scientists who monitor the sites. In addition, Jemez Pueblo officials were able to tie the sites to the student's lives with a historical and cultural overview. The most successful elements from these pilot projects are being used to develop a long-term project that will pique student interest in the science disciplines. Field activities garnered the most enthusiastic response from students, while in-class lessons were less

  17. Global climate change is confounding species conservation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koopowitz, Harold; Hawkins, Bradford A

    2012-06-01

    Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world.

  18. Environmental variation and population responses to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Callum R; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-07-01

    Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in order to design effective strategies to conserve biodiversity under global change. Here, we review recent theoretical and empirical studies to assess: (1) how populations respond to changes in environmental variance, and (2) how environmental variance affects population responses to changes in mean conditions. Contrary to frequent claims, empirical studies show that increases in environmental variance can increase as well as decrease long-term population growth rates. Moreover, environmental variance can alter and even reverse the effects of changes in the mean environment, such that even if environmental variance remains constant, omitting it from population models compromises their ability to predict species' responses to changes in mean conditions. Drawing on theory relating these effects of environmental variance to the curvatures of population growth responses to the environment, we outline how species' traits such as phylogenetic history and body mass could be used to predict their responses to global change under future environmental variability.

  19. Globalization of Gerontology Education: Current Practices and Perceptions for Graduate Gerontology Education in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    MWANGI, SAMUEL M.; Yamashita, Takashi; EWEN, HEIDI H.; Manning, Lydia K.; KUNKEL, SUZANNE R.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to document current practices and understandings about globalization of gerontology education in the United States. Better understanding of aging requires international perspectives in global communities. However, little is known about how globalization of gerontology education is practiced in U.S. graduate-level degree programs. The authors conducted qualitative interviews with representatives of the Association for Gerontology in Higher Education, the major nati...

  20. From global change to Future Earth in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU; Wen-Ling; JIN; Nan; LIN; Zheng; WU; Guo-Xiong

    2015-01-01

    Here we review the activities and recent accomplishments resulting from the global change and Future Earth initiative studies in China.As a new international research initiative,Future Earth will develop comprehensive knowledge for responding to global change risks and create transformative opportunities toward future global sustainability.The Chinese National Committee for Future Earth,the consultation project Develop ‘Future Earth in China’ for Promoting Social Sustainability and the cooperative international project Co-design of Implementation Plan for Future Earth in China were developed to help foster a culture of sustainability and conservation in China.To help promote the sustainability movement in China,Chinese scientists from both the natural and social sciences,policymakers,and stakeholders are encouraged to join the future activities following the Future Earth model co-design,co-produce,and co-delivery.

  1. Global Trends and Current Status of Commercial Urban Rooftop Farming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devi Buehler

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to analyze current practices in commercial urban rooftop farming (URF. In recent years, URF has been experiencing increasing popularity. It is a practice that is well-suited to enhancing food security in cities and reducing the environmental impact that results from long transportation distances that are common in conventional agriculture. To date, most URF initiatives have been motivated by social and educational factors rather than the aim of creating large sustainable food production systems in cities. The commercial operation of urban rooftop farms, should they become profitable, is likely to attract notable private investment, allowing a significant level of high quality urban food production to be achieved. There is a reasonable amount of literature available on urban farming that deals with its potential, and its limitations. However, it does not focus on commercial operations. In contrast to other surveys and theoretical papers, this study of URF focuses on large and commercial operations. The analysis showed that commercial URFs can be grouped into two main types: Firstly, hydroponic systems in greenhouses where mostly leafy greens, tomatoes, and herbs are grown; secondly, soil-based open-air farms that grow a large variety of vegetables. Hydroponics is frequently seen as the key technology for commercial urban food production. While the technology is not in and of itself sustainable, hydroponic farms often make an effort to implement environmentally friendly technologies and methods. However, there is still untapped potential to systemically integrate farms into buildings. The findings of this study identified where future research is needed in order to make URF a widespread sustainable solution.

  2. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  3. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  4. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B.; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2016-03-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, the MC2 model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.

  5. USGCRP assessments: Meeting the challenges of climate and global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, T.; Kuperberg, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    The United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a confederation of the research arms of 13 Federal departments and agencies. Its mission is to build a knowledge base that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated Federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support. USGCRP has supported several initiatives to promote better understanding of climate change impacts on health, support responses, and build on the progress of the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Most recently, USGCRP released a new report, "The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment". This presentation will provide an overview of USGCRP, highlight the importance of assessments, and introduce ways in which assessment findings and underlying data can be translated into critical tools to build resilience.

  6. Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maureaud, Aurore; Gascuel, Didier; Colléter, Mathieu

    2017-01-01

    The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches...... and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI......) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950...

  7. Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to global environmental change: challenges and pathways for an action-oriented research agenda for middle-income and low-income countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lahsen, M.; Sanchez-Rodriguez, R.; Lankao, P.R.; Dube, P.; Leemans, R.; Gaffney, O.; Mirza, M.; Pinho, P.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Smith, M.S.

    2010-01-01

    The socio-economic impacts of environmental stresses associated with global environmental change depend to a large extent on how societies organize themselves. Research on climate-related societal impacts, vulnerability and adaptation is currently underdeveloped, prompting international global envir

  8. Optimal function explains forest responses to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roderick Dewar; Oskar Franklin; Annikki Makela; Ross E. McMurtrie; Harry T. Valentine

    2009-01-01

    Plant responses to global changes in carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen, and water availability are critical to future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, hydrology, and hence climate. Our understanding of those responses is incomplete, however. Multiple-resource manipulation experiments and empirical observations have revealed a...

  9. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corals and coral reefs of the Caribbean and through the world are deteriorating at an accelerated rate. Several stressors are believed to contrbute to this decline, including global changes in atmospheric gases and land use patterns. In particular, warmer water temperatures and...

  10. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.;

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes a...

  11. Socio-economic data for global environmental change research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Otto, Ilona; Biewald, Anne; Coumou, Dim;

    2015-01-01

    Subnational socio-economic datasets are required if we are to assess the impacts of global environmental changes and to improve adaptation responses. Institutional and community efforts should concentrate on standardization of data collection methodologies, free public access, and geo-referencing....

  12. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  13. Plant - microbe interactions under Global Change: the microbial perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    There is ample evidence that both microorganisms and plants will respond to Global Changes, such as enhanced temperatures, increased nitrogen deposition and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, or biodiversity loss. Plant and microbial activities are linked, amongst other factors, by belowground carbon allocation and aboveground nutrient allocation, which may be altered under Global Changes to different extents. The effect of Global Changes on the interaction of plants and microbes is therefore often difficult to predict. In my talk, I will look at plant-microbe interactions from a microbial perspective. I will ask the question what the direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of Global Changes are on microbial activities in soil and what this in turn means for plants and for ecosystem-scale fluxes. I will present results from an in-situ drought experiment, from a long-term soil warming experiment and from a plant diversity experiment, where we investigated microbial growth and turnover, carbon and nutrient use efficiency and gross nutrient transformation rates.

  14. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corals and coral reefs of the Caribbean and through the world are deteriorating at an accelerated rate. Several stressors are believed to contrbute to this decline, including global changes in atmospheric gases and land use patterns. In particular, warmer water temperatures and...

  15. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  16. Global and gene specific DNA methylation changes during zebrafish development

    Science.gov (United States)

    DNA methylation is dynamic through the life of an organism. In this study, we measured the global and gene specific DNA methylation changes in zebrafish at different developmental stages. We found that the methylation percentage of cytosines was 11.75 ± 0.96% in 3.3 hour post fertilization (hpf) zeb...

  17. Knowledge of Global Climate Change: View of Iranian University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salehi, Sadegh; Nejad, Zahra Pazuki; Mahmoudi, Hossein; Burkart, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    This article assesses students' understanding of global climate change (GCC) and social factors affecting it. It was hypothesized that students who demonstrate pro-environmental attitudes are more likely to possess higher knowledge of GCC. It was further hypothesized that trust and personal efficiency would have a positive effect on the knowledge…

  18. Environmental variation and population responses to global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lawson, Callum R.; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-01-01

    Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in or

  19. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  20. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-04

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

  1. Structural Changes and Global Trends in European Union Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Ishak Mesic

    2009-01-01

    The article aims at researching and presenting structural changes and global trends in distributive trade of European Union, resulted from liberalization of economic activities within the EU. During the last decades, EU trade went through deep transformation and structural changes. Traditional distributive trade has been replaced by organized and concentrated distribution. Even though, there are many developing trends which unify the EU trade, still there are some differences specific for par...

  2. Contemporary Grandparenting: Changing Family Relationships in Global Contexts

    OpenAIRE

    Arber, S; Timonen, V

    2012-01-01

    Grandparenting in the 21st century is at the heart of profound family and societal changes. It is of increasing social and economic significance yet many dimensions of grandparenting are still poorly understood. Contemporary Grandparenting is the first book to take a sociological approach to grandparenting across diverse country contexts and combines new theorising with up-to-date empirical findings to document the changing nature of grandparenting across global contexts. In this highly origi...

  3. National inventory of Global Change relevant research in Norway; Nasjonal kartlegging av global change-relevant forskning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-05-01

    The Norwegian Global Change Committee has made an inventory of global change research (GCR) projects funded by the Research Council of Norway (RCN) in 2001. In lack of a rigid definition, GCR was defined as research that can be considered relevant to the science agenda of the four major international global change programmes DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP and WCRP. Relevance was judged based on the objectives stated for each of the international programmes and their core projects. It was not attempted to check whether the projects had any kind of link to the programmes they were considered relevant for. The grants provided by the RCN in 2001 to GCR as defined above amounts to about 77 mill. NOK. Based on a recent survey on climate change research it is reasonable to estimate that the RCN finances between 30 and 40 % of all GCR in Norway. Accordingly, the total value of Norwegian research relevant to the four international global change programmes in 2001 can be estimated to 192 - 254 mill. NOK.

  4. Global elimination of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B: revisiting the current strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thio, Chloe L; Guo, Nan; Xie, Chan; Nelson, Kenrad E; Ehrhardt, Stephan

    2015-08-01

    Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major route of HBV transmission worldwide despite an existing immunoprophylaxis regimen. The implementation of immunoprophylaxis has been challenging, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, where MTCT is common, because of difficulty obtaining and delivering the monovalent HBV vaccine and the HBV immunoglobulin. Global control of the HBV epidemic will need improved prevention of MTCT. We discuss research gaps that hinder development of new options for the elimination of MTCT as well as policy changes that may help the current vaccine-based strategy to live up to its full potential. We propose that decreasing hepatitis B viral concentrations before delivery, along with HBV vaccine use, could provide an alternative strategy that would decrease MTCT of HBV.

  5. Global change pressures on soils from land use and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Pete; House, Joanna I; Bustamante, Mercedes; Sobocká, Jaroslava; Harper, Richard; Pan, Genxing; West, Paul C; Clark, Joanna M; Adhya, Tapan; Rumpel, Cornelia; Paustian, Keith; Kuikman, Peter; Cotrufo, M Francesca; Elliott, Jane A; McDowell, Richard; Griffiths, Robert I; Asakawa, Susumu; Bondeau, Alberte; Jain, Atul K; Meersmans, Jeroen; Pugh, Thomas A M

    2016-03-01

    Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land-use change, land management and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges and highlight actions and policies to minimize adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development.

  6. Conceptual design of a measurement network of the global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hari, P.; Petäjä, T.; Bäck, J.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Lappalainen, H. K.; Vihma, T.; Laurila, T.; Viisanen, Y.; Vesala, T.; Kulmala, M.

    2016-01-01

    The global environment is changing rapidly due to anthropogenic emissions and actions. Such activities modify aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, leading to regional and global climate change and affecting, e.g., food and fresh-water security, sustainable use of natural resources and even demography. Here we present a conceptual design of a global, hierarchical observation network that can provide tools and increased understanding to tackle the inter-connected environmental and societal challenges that we will face in the coming decades. The philosophy behind the conceptual design relies on physical conservation laws of mass, energy and momentum, as well as on concentration gradients that act as driving forces for the atmosphere-biosphere exchange. The network is composed of standard, flux and/or advanced and flagship stations, each of which having specific and identified tasks. Each ecosystem type on the globe has its own characteristic features that have to be taken into consideration. The hierarchical network as a whole is able to tackle problems related to large spatial scales, heterogeneity of ecosystems and their complexity. The most comprehensive observations are envisioned to occur in flagship stations, with which the process-level understanding can be expanded to continental and global scales together with advanced data analysis, Earth system modelling and satellite remote sensing. The denser network of the flux and standard stations allows application and up-scaling of the results obtained from flagship stations to the global level.

  7. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  8. Exploring Global Change In Place-Based Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosavi, S. C.

    2011-12-01

    The complexity of global climate change makes the subject challenging for the average student, particularly given the nuanced feedbacks and exceptions to the general "warming" or "drying" trend that may be experienced at the local and regional level at which most people experience geologic processes. Geoscience educators can reduce these barriers and draw in student learners by adopting a place-based approach to teaching and researching geologic principles that relate to global change. Assisting students in recognizing and understanding the geologic environment in which they live and study has the side benefit of making the potential effect of climate change tangible. This presentation will review several approaches for using place-based case studies to explore global climate change issues in large lecture, small seminar, field research and service learning environments. The special place project used in large introductory physical geology courses requires each student to select a place familiar and unique to them for an in depth study of the common course content as the semester progresses. Students are specifically tasked with identifying how their site came to be, the geologic processes that act upon it today, how the site may have been different during the last glacial advance and how global climate change (specifically warming of 3OC over 50 years) might impact the site. The concept that change has occurred at the student's site in the past, even far from glacial environments, opens students to the scale of potential anthropogenic climate change. A freshman seminar Global Warming & Climate Change - Service in Preparation for Climate Change: The Second Battle of New Orleans focused on the environmental threats to New Orleans and southeastern Louisiana resulting from regional land use decisions in the centuries before Hurricane Katrina, and the threat that global change relating to sea level rise, acceleration of the hydrologic cycle and intensification of

  9. Global ex-situ crop diversity conservation and the Svalbard Global Seed Vault: assessing the current status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westengen, Ola T; Jeppson, Simon; Guarino, Luigi

    2013-01-01

    Ex-situ conservation of crop diversity is a global concern, and the development of an efficient and sustainable conservation system is a historic priority recognized in international law and policy. We assess the completeness of the safety duplication collection in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault with respect to data on the world's ex-situ collections as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Currently, 774,601 samples are deposited at Svalbard by 53 genebanks. We estimate that more than one third of the globally distinct accessions of 156 crop genera stored in genebanks as orthodox seeds are conserved in the Seed Vault. The numbers of safety duplicates of Triticum (wheat), Sorghum (sorghum), Pennisetum (pearl millet), Eleusine (finger millet), Cicer (chickpea) and Lens (lentil) exceed 50% of the estimated numbers of distinct accessions in global ex-situ collections. The number of accessions conserved globally generally reflects importance for food production, but there are significant gaps in the safety collection at Svalbard in some genera of high importance for food security in tropical countries, such as Amaranthus (amaranth), Chenopodium (quinoa), Eragrostis (teff) and Abelmoschus (okra). In the 29 food-crop genera with the largest number of accessions stored globally, an average of 5.5 out of the ten largest collections is already represented in the Seed Vault collection or is covered by existing deposit agreements. The high coverage of ITPGRFA Annex 1 crops and of those crops for which there is a CGIAR mandate in the current Seed Vault collection indicates that existence of international policies and institutions are important determinants for accessions to be safety duplicated at Svalbard. As a back-up site for the global conservation system, the Seed Vault plays not only a practical but also a symbolic role for enhanced integration and cooperation for conservation of crop diversity.

  10. Global ex-situ crop diversity conservation and the Svalbard Global Seed Vault: assessing the current status.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ola T Westengen

    Full Text Available Ex-situ conservation of crop diversity is a global concern, and the development of an efficient and sustainable conservation system is a historic priority recognized in international law and policy. We assess the completeness of the safety duplication collection in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault with respect to data on the world's ex-situ collections as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Currently, 774,601 samples are deposited at Svalbard by 53 genebanks. We estimate that more than one third of the globally distinct accessions of 156 crop genera stored in genebanks as orthodox seeds are conserved in the Seed Vault. The numbers of safety duplicates of Triticum (wheat, Sorghum (sorghum, Pennisetum (pearl millet, Eleusine (finger millet, Cicer (chickpea and Lens (lentil exceed 50% of the estimated numbers of distinct accessions in global ex-situ collections. The number of accessions conserved globally generally reflects importance for food production, but there are significant gaps in the safety collection at Svalbard in some genera of high importance for food security in tropical countries, such as Amaranthus (amaranth, Chenopodium (quinoa, Eragrostis (teff and Abelmoschus (okra. In the 29 food-crop genera with the largest number of accessions stored globally, an average of 5.5 out of the ten largest collections is already represented in the Seed Vault collection or is covered by existing deposit agreements. The high coverage of ITPGRFA Annex 1 crops and of those crops for which there is a CGIAR mandate in the current Seed Vault collection indicates that existence of international policies and institutions are important determinants for accessions to be safety duplicated at Svalbard. As a back-up site for the global conservation system, the Seed Vault plays not only a practical but also a symbolic role for enhanced integration and cooperation for conservation of crop diversity.

  11. Global change and carrying capacity: Implications for life on Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, Paul R.; Daily, Gretchen C.; Ehrlich, Anne H.; Matson, Pamela; Vitousek, Peter

    1989-01-01

    Determining the long-term number of people that the planet can support without irreversibly reducing its ability to support people in the future, i.e., the carrying capacity of the Earth, is an exceedingly complex problem. About all that is known for certain is that, with present and foreseeable technologies, the human population has already exceeded the capacity. The reduction in carrying capacity that can be expected to result from direct human impacts on resources and the environment and from our indirect impacts of the climate system is discussed. Global warming and modeling global change and food security are also discussed with respect to carrying capacity.

  12. Global change and carrying capacity: Implications for life on Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, Paul R.; Daily, Gretchen C.; Ehrlich, Anne H.; Matson, Pamela; Vitousek, Peter

    1989-01-01

    Determining the long-term number of people that the planet can support without irreversibly reducing its ability to support people in the future, i.e., the carrying capacity of the Earth, is an exceedingly complex problem. About all that is known for certain is that, with present and foreseeable technologies, the human population has already exceeded the capacity. The reduction in carrying capacity that can be expected to result from direct human impacts on resources and the environment and from our indirect impacts of the climate system is discussed. Global warming and modeling global change and food security are also discussed with respect to carrying capacity.

  13. TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.); Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P.

    1990-08-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global change data. This first issue includes estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from the production of cement, historical and modern records of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and methane concentrations, and several long-term temperature records. Included are tabular and graphical presentations of the data, discussions of trends in the data, and references to publications that provide further information. Data are presented in a two-page format, each dealing with a different data set. All data are available in digital form from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  14. Increasing Diversity in Global Climate Change Research for Undergraduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, L. P.; Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Howard, A. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Druyan, L. M.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Austin, S. A.; Cheung, T. D.; Damas, M. C.; Boxe, C.; Prince, T.; Ng, C.; Frost, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global Climate Change and the ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate are critical to the survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies towards advanced degrees and pursue careers related to climate change. This is best accomplished by involving undergraduates in global climate change research. This Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) initiative is based at the City University of New York (CUNY) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and is supported by NASA and NSF. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences include CUNY faculty and GISS scientists. Research topics include the Wetland Carbon Project, The Cooling Power Of Urban Vegetation, Internal Ocean Mixing, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pollution Transport and Tropospheric Ozone. Students are recruited from CUNY colleges and other colleges and universities. The program maintains an emphasis on under-represented minorities and females. Approximately sixty percent of the undergraduate students are under-represented minorities and forty percent are female. The project is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research.

  15. Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia

    2017-02-01

    The global warming slowdown or warming hiatus, began around the year 2000 and has persisted for nearly 15 years. Most studies have focused on the interpretation of the hiatus in temperature. In this study, changes in a global aridity index (AI) were analyzed by using a newly developed dynamical adjustment method that can successfully identify and separate dynamically induced and radiatively forced aridity changes in the raw data. The AI and Palmer Drought Severity Index produced a wetting zone over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. The dynamical adjustment analysis suggested that this wetting zone occurred in response to the global warming hiatus. The dynamically induced AI (DAI) played a major role in the AI changes during the hiatus period, and its relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) also indicated that different phases of the NAO, PDO, and AMO contributed to different performances of the DAI over the Northern Hemisphere. Although the aridity wetting over the mid-to-high latitudes may relieve long-term drying in certain regions, the hiatus is temporary, and so is the relief. Accelerated global warming will return when the NAO, PDO, and AMO revert to their opposite phases in the future, and the wetting zone is likely to disappear.

  16. Global Security Rule Sets An Analysis of the Current Global Security Environment and Rule Sets Governing Nuclear Weapons Release

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mollahan, K; Nattrass, L

    2004-09-30

    America is in a unique position in its history. In maintaining its position as the world's only superpower, the US consistently finds itself taking on the role of a global cop, chief exporter of hard and soft power, and primary impetus for globalization. A view of the current global situation shows an America that can benefit greatly from the effects of globalization and soft power. Similarly, America's power can be reduced significantly if globalization and its soft power are not handled properly. At the same time, America has slowly come to realize that its next major adversary is not a near peer competitor but terrorism and disconnected nations that seek nuclear capabilities. In dealing with this new threat, America needs to come to terms with its own nuclear arsenal and build a security rule set that will establish for the world explicitly what actions will cause the US to consider nuclear weapons release. This rule set; however, needs to be established with sensitivity to the US's international interests in globalization and soft power. The US must find a way to establish its doctrine governing nuclear weapons release without threatening other peaceful nations in the process.

  17. Phylogenetic responses of forest trees to global change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John K Senior

    Full Text Available In a rapidly changing biosphere, approaches to understanding the ecology and evolution of forest species will be critical to predict and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic global change on forest ecosystems. Utilizing 26 forest species in a factorial experiment with two levels each of atmospheric CO2 and soil nitrogen, we examined the hypothesis that phylogeny would influence plant performance in response to elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. We found highly idiosyncratic responses at the species level. However, significant, among-genetic lineage responses were present across a molecularly determined phylogeny, indicating that past evolutionary history may have an important role in the response of whole genetic lineages to future global change. These data imply that some genetic lineages will perform well and that others will not, depending upon the environmental context.

  18. Speculative Fictions for Understanding Global Change Environments: Two Thought Experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Gough

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of a thought experiment, as the term was used by quantum and relativity physicists in the early part of the twentieth century, was not prediction (as is the goal of classical experimental science, but more defensible representations of present ‘realities’. Speculative fictions, from Mary Shelley's Frankenstein to the Star Wars cinema saga, can be read as sociotechnical thought experiments that produce alternative representations of present circumstances and uncertainties, and anticipate and critique possible futures. In this essay I demonstrate how two examples of popular speculative fictions, Frank Herbert's Dune (1965 and Ursula Le Guin's The Telling (2000, function as thought experiments that problematise global transitions in their respective eras. I argue that critical readings of such stories can help us to anticipate, critique, and respond constructively to social and cultural changes and change environments within nation-states that constitute, and are constituted by, global change processes and their effects.

  19. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A; Li, Yue

    2016-05-31

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2-71.2% during 1982-2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms.

  20. Ionic current correlations underlie the global tuning of large numbers of neuronal activity attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shunbing; Golowasch, Jorge

    2012-09-26

    Ionic conductances in identified neurons are highly variable. This poses the crucial question of how such neurons can produce stable activity. Coexpression of ionic currents has been observed in an increasing number of neurons in different systems, suggesting that the coregulation of ionic channel expression, by thus linking their variability, may enable neurons to maintain relatively constant neuronal activity as suggested by a number of recent theoretical studies. We examine this hypothesis experimentally using the voltage- and dynamic-clamp techniques to first measure and then modify the ionic conductance levels of three currents in identified neurons of the crab pyloric network. We quantify activity by measuring 10 different attributes (oscillation period, spiking frequency, etc.), and find linear, positive and negative relationships between conductance pairs and triplets that can enable pyloric neurons to maintain activity attributes invariant. Consistent with experimental observations, some of the features most tightly regulated appear to be phase relationships of bursting activity. We conclude that covariation (and probably a tightly controlled coregulation) of ionic conductances can help neurons maintain certain attributes of neuronal activity invariant while at the same time allowing conductances to change over wide ranges in response to internal or environmental inputs and perturbations. Our results also show that neurons can tune neuronal activity globally via coordinate expression of ion currents.

  1. Changes in Terrestrial Water Availability under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, C. W.; Lo, M. H.; Chou, C.

    2014-12-01

    Under global warming, the annual range of precipitation is widening (Chou and Lan, 2012; Chou et al., 2013) and the frequency of precipitation extreme events also increases. Due to nonlinear responses of land hydrological process to precipitation extremes, runoff can increase exponentially, and on the hard hand, soil water storage may decline. In addition, IPCC AR5 indicates that soil moisture decreases in most areas under the global warming scenario. In this study, we use NCAR Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) to simulate changes in terrestrial available water (TAW, defined as the precipitation minus evaporation minus runoff, and then divided by the precipitation) under global warming. Preliminary results show that the TAW has clear seasonal variations. Compared to previous studies, which do not include the runoff in the calculations of the available water, our estimates on the TAW has much less available water in high latitudes through out the year, especially under extreme precipitation events.

  2. Global land-use change hidden behind nickel consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakajima, Kenichi; Nansai, Keisuke; Matsubae, Kazuyo; Tomita, Makoto; Takayanagi, Wataru; Nagasaka, Tetsuya

    2017-05-15

    Economic growth is associated with a rapid rise in the use of natural resources within the economy, and has potential environmental impacts at local and/or global scales. In today's globalized economy, each country has indirect flows supporting its economic activities, and natural resource consumption through supply chains influences environmental impacts far removed from the place of consumption. One way to control environmental impacts associated with consumption of natural resources is to identify the consumption of natural resources and the associated environmental impacts through the global supply chain. In this study, we used a global link input-output model (GLIO, a hybrid multiregional input-output model) to detect the linkages between national nickel consumption and mining-associated global land-use changes. We focused on nickel, whose global demand has risen rapidly in recent years, as a case study. The estimated area of land-use change around the world caused by nickel mining in 2005 was 1.9km(2), and that induced by Japanese final demand for nickel was 0.38km(2). Our modeling also revealed that the areas of greatest land-use change associated with nickel mining were concentrated in only a few countries and regions far removed from the place of consumption. For example, 57.7% of the world's land-use changes caused by nickel mining were concentrated in five countries in 2005: Australia, 13.7%; Russia, 12.9%; Indonesia, 12.5%; New Caledonia, 10.4%; and Colombia, 8.2%. The mining-associated land-use change induced by Japanese final demand accounted for 19.5% of the total area affected by land-use change caused by nickel mining. The top three countries accounted for 70.6% (Indonesia: 47.0%, New Caledonia: 16.0%, and Australia: 7.7%), and the top five accounted for 82.4% (the Philippines: 7.5%, and Canada: 4.3%, in addition to the top three countries and regions).

  3. Groundwater and climate change: mitigating the global groundwater crisis and adapting to climate change model

    Science.gov (United States)

    To better understand the effects of climate change on global groundwater resources, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) International Hydrological Programme (IHP) initiated the GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Cl...

  4. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Townsend Peterson

    Full Text Available Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055 climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.

  5. Adaptable Information Models in the Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, B.; Buddenberg, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Wolfe, R.; Goldstein, J.

    2014-12-01

    The US Global Change Research Program has sponsored the creation of the Global Change Information System () to provide a web based source of accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. The GCIS played multiple roles during the assembly and release of the Third National Climate Assessment. It provided human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various types of resources, which could then be manipulated by a distributed team with a wide range of specialties. The GCIS also served as a scalable backend for the web based version of the report. In this talk, we discuss the infrastructure decisions made during the design and deployment of the GCIS, as well as ongoing work to adapt to new types of information. Both a constrained relational database and an open ended triple store are used to ensure data integrity while maintaining fluidity. Using natural primary keys allows identifiers to propagate through both models. Changing identifiers are accomodated through fine grained auditing and explicit mappings to external lexicons. A practical RESTful API is used whose endpoints are also URIs in an ontology. Both the relational schema and the ontology are maleable, and stability is ensured through test driven development and continuous integration testing using modern open source techniques. Content is also validated through continuous testing techniques. A high degres of scalability is achieved through caching.

  6. Global Change Effects on Plant Chemical Defenses against Insect Herbivores

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    M. Gabriela Bidart-Bouzat; Adebobola Imeh-Nathaniel

    2008-01-01

    This review focuses on individual effects of major global change factors, such as elevated CO2, Oa, UV light and temperature,on plant secondary chemistry. These secondary metabolites are well-known for their role in plant defense against insect herbivory. Global change effects on secondary chemicals appear to be plant species-specific and dependent on the chemical type. Even though plant chemical responses induced by these factors are highly variable, there seems to be some specificity in the response to different environmental stressors. For example, even though the production of phenolic compounds is enhanced by both elevated CO2 and UV light levels, the latter appears to primarily increase the concentrations of fiavonoids. Likewise, specific phenolic metabolites seem to be induced by O3 but not by other factors, and an increase in volatile organic compounds has been particularly detected under elevated temperature. More information is needed regarding how global change factors influence inducibility of plant chemical defenses as well as how their indirect and direct effects impact insect performance and behavior, herbivory rates and pathogen attack. This knowledge is crucial to better understand how plants and their associated natural enemies will be affected in future changing environments.

  7. Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansson, Roland

    2003-03-22

    I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

  8. Structural Change, Globalization and Economic Growth in China and India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Valli

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In their period of rapid economic growth China and India have experienced profound structural transformations. The aim of the paper is to analyze the relation between structural change, the process of globalization and economic growth in the two great Asian countries, using a highly disaggregated dataset for the 1987-2009 period. While China had a longer and more intensive productivity growth than India, the latter had a somewhat more balanced growth. Both countries registered higher within-sectors gains in productivity than between-sectors ones. Our analysis also shows that there exist important feedbacks between structural change, globalization and economic growth over time. When the reallocation of labor is large, it may positively impact on the future rates of economic growth. At the same time, however, it seems that a too rapid economic growth may hinder a smooth reallocation of labor. In both countries, new policies should be designed to favor labor movement across sectors and areas, to reduce the wage-productivity differentials and to integrate the informal sector in formal markets in India, in order to foster structural changes and enhance economic growth. If a too unbalanced economic growth has somewhat limited the extent of structural change, globalization has on the contrary promoted it. High level of export, import and FDI not only has been related to higher rates of economic growth, but also to a deeper reallocation of resources across sectors, modifying the comparative advantage and reorganizing the production.

  9. Terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change: A research strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere.

  10. The dynamism of the current global (and globalized moments: implications for teachers, administrators, and other educational leaders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duncan WAITE

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the current conditions that have an impact upon teachers and their teaching. These global conditions are influenced by corporatist, corporativist, and neo-liberal forces, which are also discussed here. These global and increasingly globalizing trends make teaching difficult, even dangerous work, especially for the conscientious teacher, who must mediate helping the student in his/her becoming and doing the state’s work. Doing the state’s work generally involves disciplining the student and others, or policing the distribution of the sensible, and mediating these competing interests is difficult. Instructional supervision, educational leadership and educational administration are taken up, informed, especially, by Hazony’s discussion of the shepherd and the farmer.

  11. Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B, and control experiment 20C3M are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We reveal in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that are significant and consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1 the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2 the quantification of consistent significant change calculatesd relative to both the natural variability and the inter-model spread. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions likelihood of hydrological change is large.

    Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases are large for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube. While discharge of Monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods.

  12. Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B and control experiment 20C3M are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This reveals in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that have a high likelihood and are consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1 the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2 the quantification of notable consistent changes calculated relative to the GCM specific natural variability. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions the likelihood of hydrological change is large.

    Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases strongly for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube while discharge of monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods.

  13. Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumhansl, Kira A.; Okamoto, Daniel K.; Rassweiler, Andrew; Novak, Mark; Bolton, John J.; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Connell, Sean D.; Johnson, Craig R.; Konar, Brenda; Ling, Scott D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Norderhaug, Kjell M.; Pérez-Matus, Alejandro; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Reed, Daniel C.; Salomon, Anne K.; Shears, Nick T.; Wernberg, Thomas; Anderson, Robert J.; Barrett, Nevell S.; Buschmann, Alejandro H.; Carr, Mark H.; Caselle, Jennifer E.; Derrien-Courtel, Sandrine; Edgar, Graham J.; Edwards, Matt; Estes, James A.; Goodwin, Claire; Kenner, Michael C.; Kushner, David J.; Nunn, Julia; Steneck, Robert S.; Vásquez, Julio; Watson, Jane; Witman, Jon D.

    2016-01-01

    Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists. Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = −0.018 y−1). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (−0.015 to −0.18 y−1), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y−1), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species. PMID:27849580

  14. Preparing for Change: Challenges and Opportunities in a Global World

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Sabine

    2009-03-01

    Our world is becoming increasingly global. This may sound like a clich'e, yet it is true nonetheless, and poses unprecedented challenges for graduate education. For the new generation of researchers, teachers and professionals to be successful they must be prepared in more than the content area of their chosen field. They must also acquire proficiency in global awareness, cultural literacy, multicultural teamwork and language facility. These global skill sets form the basis for effective multicultural collaboration and will become increasingly important even for those who do not intend to study or work abroad. Knowledge has become more portable in the internet age; large data bases and reports can be accessed in real time from various locations around the globe; information is exchanged in multifaceted knowledge networks; collaborative research takes place within and outside of the traditional venue of the research university in the private sector, research institutes, and associations; research networks span multiple disciplines as progress invariably occurs at the intersection of previously discrete fields of inquiry. Global collaboration thus is no longer dependent on the physical proximity of collaborators but can take place anywhere any time. This then requires yet another set of skills, namely the ability to adapt to change, exhibit flexibility and transfer skills to a range of contexts and applications. Effective graduate education must address these realities and expose students to learning opportunities that will enable them to acquire these much needed global skills sets.

  15. Simulating global soil-CO2 flux and its response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    It has been argued that increased soil respiration would become a major atmospheric source of CO2 in the event of global warming. The simple statistical models were developed based on a georeferenced database with 0.5°× 0.5° longitude/latitude resolution to simulate global soil-CO2 fluxes, to investigate climatic effects on these fluxes using sensitivity experiments, and to assess possible responses of soil-CO2 fluxes to various climate change scenarios. The statistical models yield a value of 69 PgC/a of global soil CO2 fluxes for current condition. Sensitivity experiments confirm that the fluxes are responsive to changes in temperature,precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, but increases in temperature and actual evapotranspiration affect soil-CO2 fluxes more than increases in precipitation. Using climatic change projections from four global circulation models, each corresponding to an equilibrium doubling of CO2, it can be found that the largest increases in soil-CO2 fluxes were associated with the boreal and tundra regions. The globally averaged soil-CO2 fluxes were estimated to increase by about 35 % above current values, providing a positive feedback to the greenhouse effect.

  16. Simulating global soil-CO2 flux and its response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    It has been argued that increased soil respiration would become a major atmospheric source of CO2 in the event of global warming. The simple statistical models were developed based on a georeferenced database with 0.5° × 0.5° longitude/latitude resolution to simulate global soil-CO2 fluxes, to investigate climatic effects on these fluxes using sensitivity experiments, and to assess possible responses of soil-CO2 fluxes to various climate change scenarios. The statistical models yield a value of 69 PgC/a of global soil CO2 fluxes for current condition. Sensitivity experiments confirm that the fluxes are responsive to changes in temperature,precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, but increases in temperature and actual evapotranspiration affect soil-CO2 fluxes more than increases in precipitation. Using climatic change projections from four global circulation models, each corresponding to an equilibrium doubling of CO2, it can be found that the largest increases in soil-CO2 fluxes were associated with the boreal and tundra regions. The globally averaged soil-CO2 fluxes were estimated to increase by about 35 % above current values, providing a positive feedback to the greenhouse effect.

  17. Governing Global Climate Change: Past Achievements, Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Kokotsis

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The cumulative effects of a significantly changing climate are projected to have disastrous implications on the world’s natural habitats, and along with that, are projected to drastically increase the rate and likelihood of violent conflict globally, particularly in high-density, urban, poverty hotspots. Limiting the effects of a changing climate is thus critical in influencing multiple societal goals including equitable sustainable development, human health, biodiversity, food security and access to reliable energy sources. This paper argues that the G7/8 has led global climate governance in ways other international environmental institu­tions have largely failed to do. It has done so largely by placing climate protection at the forefront of its policy objectives, alongside economic, health, energy and security goals, and reaching consensus repeatedly amongst its leaders on the impor­tance of stabilizing emissions through energy efficiency, conservation, investment and technological innovation. Moreover, this chapter argues that the summit’s predominant capability, its constricted participation, democratic convergence and political cohesion – as well as the combined effects of global shocks – have all had positive impacts on the G7/8’s success in mitigating climate change. Following a detailed process-tracing exercise over the summit’s 40-year history in which clear surges and retreats on global climate governance are outlined, this paper concludes by assessing the G7/8’s accountability record on climate mitigation and outlines a set of prescriptive recommendations, allowing for the delivery of a more tangible, coherent, results-driven accountability process for global climate governance.

  18. Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerten, Dieter; Rost, Stefanie; von Bloh, Werner; Lucht, Wolfgang

    2008-10-01

    A global vegetation and hydrology model (LPJmL) was applied to quantify the contributions of changing precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 content, land use and irrigation to worldwide trends in 20th century river discharge (Q). Consistently with observations, Q decreased in parts of Africa, central/southern Asia and south-eastern Europe, and increased especially in parts of North America and western Asia. Based on the CRU TS2.1 climatology, total global Q rose over 1901-2002 (trend, 30.8 km3 a-2, equaling 7.7%), due primarily to increasing precipitation (individual effect, +24.7 km3 a-2). Global warming (-3.1), rising CO2 (+4.4), land cover changes (+5.9) and irrigation (-1.1) also had discernible effects. However, sign and magnitude of trends exhibited pronounced decadal variability and differed among precipitation forcing datasets. Since recent trends in these and other drivers of Q are mainly anthropogenic, we conclude that humans exert an increasing influence on the global water cycle.

  19. The Effects of Globalization on Lifestyle Changes in Rural Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sojasi Qeidari

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Globalization has different effects on human life, which are more noticeable in rural areas than in cities. Thus, the present article aims to study the effects of globalization on lifestyle in rural areas. The methodology in this research is descriptive-analytical; and to collect data in the theoretical section of the study the library method has been used and in the field study questionnaires have been employed. In the present study, the residents of Roshanabad in Gorgan, composed of 24 villages, are included; using Cochran sampling method, 265 families were selected as sample. The results of the study show that the effects of globalization can be detected in all aspects and indexes of lifestyle, and according to participants in the study, some changes are occurring in lifestyle in the rural society. The regression testing indicated a Beta coefficient of 0.328 for most changes happening in lifestyle as a result of globalization. It can be said that since Iranian villages are experiencing a transition from tradition to modernity or even postmodernity, different aspects of lifestyle are somehow mingled; young people in rural areas show a tendency toward urban lifestyle while older people prefer local rural lifestyle.

  20. Global geodetic observing system meeting the requirements of a global society on a changing planet in 2020

    CERN Document Server

    Plag, Hans-Peter

    2009-01-01

    Geodesy plays a key role in geodynamics, geohazards, the global water cycle, global change, atmosphere and ocean dynamics. This book covers geodesy's contribution to science and society and identifies user needs regarding geodetic observations and products.

  1. Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

  2. Impact of global seismicity on sea level change assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Melini, D

    2005-01-01

    We analyze the effect of seismic activity on sealevel variations, by computing the time-dependent vertical crustal movement and geoid change due to coseismic deformations and postseismic relaxation effects. Seismic activity can affect both the absolute sealevel, by changing the Earth gravity field and hence the geoid height, and the relative sealevel, i.e. the radial distance between seafloor and geoid level. By using comprehensive seismic catalogues we assess the net effect of seismicity on tidal relative sealevel measurements as well as on the global oceanic surfaces, and we obtain an estimate of absolute sealevel variations of seismic origin. Our results confirm that, on a global scale, most of the signal is associated with few giant thrust events, and that RSL estimates obtained using tide-gauge data can be sensibly affected by the seismic driven sealevel signal. The recent measures of sealevel obtained by satellite altimetry show a wide regional variation of sealevel trends over the oceanic surfaces, wit...

  3. Oceans-land-atmosphere interactions and global change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DileepKumar, M.

    Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 94 Oceans-Land-Atmosphere interactions and Global Change M. Dileep Kumar National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa-403 004. dileep@nio.org We live on land, feel the breeze and enjoy... the presence of blue water. Yet many of us do not realize interactions among these natural physical entities shape our lives. In scientific terms we refer to these entities as geosphere, atmosphere and hydrosphere, respectively. Their interactions span...

  4. Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Daniel O B; Yool, Andrew; Wei, Chih-Lin; Henson, Stephanie A; Ruhl, Henry A; Watson, Reg A; Gehlen, Marion

    2014-06-01

    Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep-sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal-to-century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091-2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006-2015). Our projections use multi-model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep-water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold-water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide. © 2013 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Global climate change and cryospheric evolution in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin D.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Major outcomes of Working Group I, IPCC AR4 (2007, as well as the recent understandings from our regional climatic assessments in China were summarized. Changes of cryosphere in China, one of the major components in regional climate system, is specifically reviewed. Under the global/regional warming, all components of cryosphere in China (Tibetan Plateau and surroundings including glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost and snow cover show rapid decay in the last decades. These changes have big socioeconomic impacts in west China, thus encourages both government and scientists pay more and more attention to this field.

  6. Global Climate Change: Federal Research on Possible Human Health Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-02-10

    conditioning systems.”20 A recent rise in one measure of poverty in the United States is argued by some to suggest that there may be more poor ...conclusions are common to several studies on possible health effects of climate change: the infirm, the elderly, and the poor may be disproportionately...Global Change Research Program, op. cit. 20 Ibid. 21 Madrick, Jeff. A Rise in Child Poverty Rates Is At Risk In U.S., the New York Times on the Web, June

  7. Marine alien species as an aspect of global change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Occhipinti-Ambrogi

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The transport of organisms across oceans is an anthropogenic agent of global change that has profoundly affected the natural distribution of littoral biota and altered the makeup of biogeographic regions. The homogenization of marine biotas is a phenomenon especially affecting coastal regions and is spearheaded by a suite of opportunistic species at the expense of native species. Climate change may exacerbate the trend: sea surface temperatures, hydrodynamics, pH and carbonate cycles, already show marked fluctuations compared to the past. Alien invasive species are impacted by the change of marine climate in a variety of ways, which are we have just begun to notice, observe and interpret. A conceptual framework has yet to be conceived that links theories on biological introductions and invasions with the physical aspects of global change. Therefore predicting the scale of invasions or their impact on biodiversity is a daunting task. Integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change. The recorded spread of alien species and analysis of patterns of invasions may serve as the starting point for searching connections with climate change descriptors. The Mediterranean Sea is home to an exceptionally large number of alien species, resulting from its exceptional history and multiple vectors. For much of the twentieth century alien thermophilic species, which had entered the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal, have been confined to the Levantine Basin. In recent years climate driven hydrographic changes have coincided with a pronounced expansion of alien thermophilic biota to the central and western basins of the Mediterranean. We discuss some changes in emergent functions and services in Mediterranean ecosystems under the combined effect of invasive species and climate changes.

  8. Understanding Global Change: Tools for exploring Earth processes and biotic change through time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.; Berbeco, M.

    2014-12-01

    Teaching global change is one of the great pedagogical challenges of our day because real understanding entails integrating a variety of concepts from different scientific subject areas, including chemistry, physics, and biology, with a variety of causes and impacts in the past, present, and future. With the adoption of the Next Generation Science Standards, which emphasize climate change and other human impacts on natural systems, there has never been a better time to provide instructional support to educators on these topics. In response to this clear need, the University of California Museum of Paleontology, in collaboration with the National Center for Science Education, developed a new web resource for teachers and students titled "Understanding Global Change" (UGC) that introduces the drivers and impacts of global change. This website clarifies the connections among deep time, modern Earth system processes, and anthropogenic influences, and provides K-16 instructors with a wide range of easy-to-use tools, strategies, and lesson plans for communicating these important concepts regarding global change and the basic Earth systems processes. In summer 2014, the UGC website was field-tested during a workshop with 25 K-12 teachers and science educators. Feedback from participants helped the UGC team develop and identify pedagogically sound lesson plans and instructional tools on global change. These resources are accessible through UGC's searchable database, are aligned with NGSS and Common Core, and are categorized by grade level, subject, and level of inquiry-based instruction (confirmation, structured, guided, open). Providing a range of content and tools at levels appropriate for teachers is essential because our initial needs assessment found that educators often feel that they lack the content knowledge and expertise to address complex, but relevant global change issues, such as ocean acidification and deforestation. Ongoing needs assessments and surveys of

  9. Examining global electricity supply vulnerability to climate change using a high-fidelity hydropower dam model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean W D; Ng, Jia Yi; Galelli, Stefano

    2017-07-15

    An important and plausible impact of a changing global climate is altered power generation from hydroelectric dams. Here we project 21st century global hydropower production by forcing a coupled, global hydrological and dam model with three General Circulation Model (GCM) projections run under two emissions scenarios. Dams are simulated using a detailed model that accounts for plant specifications, storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry and realistic, optimized operations. We show that the inclusion of these features can have a non-trivial effect on the simulated response of hydropower production to changes in climate. Simulation results highlight substantial uncertainty in the direction of change in globally aggregated hydropower production (~-5 to +5% change in mean global production by the 2080s under a high emissions scenario, depending on GCM). Several clearly impacted hotspots are identified, the most prominent of which encompasses the Mediterranean countries in southern Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East. In this region, hydropower production is projected to be reduced by approximately 40% on average by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. After accounting for each country's dependence on hydropower for meeting its current electricity demands, the Balkans countries emerge as the most vulnerable (~5-20% loss in total national electricity generation depending on country). On the flipside, a handful of countries in Scandinavia and central Asia are projected to reap a significant increase in total electrical production (~5-15%) without investing in new power generation facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Climate change and respiratory health: current evidence and knowledge gaps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaro, Tim K; Knowlton, Kim; Balmes, John R

    2013-08-01

    Climate change is a key driver of the accelerating environmental change affecting populations around the world. Many of these changes and our response to them can affect respiratory health. This is an expert opinion review of recent peer-reviewed literature, focused on more recent medical journals and climate-health relevant modeling results from non-biomedical journals pertaining to climate interactions with air pollution. Global health impacts in low resource countries and migration precipitated by environmental change are addressed. The major findings are of respiratory health effects related to heat, air pollution, shifts in infectious diseases and allergens, flooding, water, food security and migration. The review concludes with knowledge gaps and research need that will support the evidence-base required to address the challenges ahead.

  11. Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armsworth, Paul R.; Larson, Eric R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Sax, Dov F.; Simonin, Paul W.; Blossey, Bernd; Green, Nancy; Lester, Liza; Klein, Mary L.; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Runge, Michael C.; Shaw, M. Rebecca

    2015-01-01

    Conservation organizations must adapt to respond to the ecological impacts of global change. Numerous changes to conservation actions (eg facilitated ecological transitions, managed relocations, or increased corridor development) have been recommended, but some institutional restructuring within organizations may also be needed. Here we discuss the capacity of conservation organizations to adapt to changing environmental conditions, focusing primarily on public agencies and nonprofits active in land protection and management in the US. After first reviewing how these organizations anticipate and detect impacts affecting target species and ecosystems, we then discuss whether they are sufficiently flexible to prepare and respond by reallocating funding, staff, or other resources. We raise new hypotheses about how the configuration of different organizations enables them to protect particular conservation targets and manage for particular biophysical changes that require coordinated management actions over different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we provide a discussion resource to help conservation organizations assess their capacity to adapt.

  12. Engaging Undergraduates in Methods of Communicating Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, C.; Colgan, M. W.; Humphreys, R. R.

    2010-12-01

    Global Climate Change has become a politically contentious issue in large part because of the failure of scientists to effectively communicate this complex subject to the general public. In a Global Change class, offered within a science department and therefore focused primarily on the underlying science, we have incorporated a citizen science module into the course to raise awareness among future scientists to the importance of communicating information to a broad and diverse audience. The citizen science component of this course focuses on how the predicted climate changes will alter the ecologic and economic landscape of the southeastern region. Helping potential scientists to learn to effectively communicate with the general public is particularly poignant for this predominate southern student body. A Pew Research Center for the People and the Press study found that less than 50% of Southerners surveyed felt that global warming is a very serious problem and over 30% of Southerners did not believe that there was any credible evidence that the Earth is warming. This interdisciplinary and topical nature of the course attracts student from a variety of disciplines, which provides the class with a cross section of students not typically found in most geology classes. This mixture provides a diversity of skills and interest that leads to success of the Citizen Science component. This learning approach was adapted from an education module developed through the Earth System Science Education Alliance and a newly developed component to that program on citizen science. Student teams developed several citizen science-related public service announcements concerning projected global change effects on Charleston and the South Carolina area. The scenario concerned the development of an information campaign for the City of Charleston, culminating with the student presentations on their findings to City officials. Through this real-life process, the students developed new

  13. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  14. The persistently variable "background" stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, S; Daniel, J S; Neely, R R; Vernier, J-P; Dutton, E G; Thomason, L W

    2011-08-12

    Recent measurements demonstrate that the "background" stratospheric aerosol layer is persistently variable rather than constant, even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Several independent data sets show that stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000. Near-global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about -0.1 watt per square meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred. Observations from earlier periods are limited but suggest an additional negative radiative forcing of about -0.1 watt per square meter from 1960 to 1990. Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.

  15. Changes in the annual range of precipitation under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, C.; Lan, C.

    2011-12-01

    The annual range of precipitation, which is the difference between maximum and minimum precipitation within a year, is examined in climate model simulations under global warming. For global averages, the annual range of precipitation tends to increase as the globe warms. On a regional basis, this enhancement is found over most areas of the world, except for the bands along 30°S and 30N°, respectively. The enhancement in the annual range of precipitation is mainly associated with larger upward trends of maximum precipitation and smaller upward trends or downward trends of minimum precipitation. Based on the moisture budget analysis, the dominant mechanism is vertical moisture advection, both on a global average and on a regional scale. The vertical moisture advection, moisture convergence induced by vertical motion, includes the thermodynamic component, which is associated with increased water vapor, and the dynamic component, which is associated with changes in circulation. Generally, the thermodynamic component enhances the annual range of precipitation, while the dynamic component tends to reduce it. Evaporation has a positive contribution to both maximum and minimum precipitation, but very little to the annual range of precipitation. Even though evaporation and horizontal moisture advection are small for a global average, they could be important on a regional basis.

  16. Role of social science in global environmental change: case of urbanisation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Njiro, E

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available the role of social scientists in global environmental change by examining urbanisation and other environmental changes as suggested in the science plan of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP 2005)...

  17. Global Change adaptation in water resources management: the Water Change project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouget, Laurent; Escaler, Isabel; Guiu, Roger; Mc Ennis, Suzy; Versini, Pierre-Antoine

    2012-12-01

    In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as changes in climate, water demand or land use, which can be grouped under the term Global Change. The Water Change project (LIFE+ funding) developed a methodology and a tool to assess the Global Change impacts on water resources, thus helping river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. The main result of the project was the creation of a step by step methodology to assess Global Change impacts and define strategies of adaptation. This methodology was tested in the Llobregat river basin (Spain) with the objective of being applicable to any water system. It includes several steps such as setting-up the problem with a DPSIR framework, developing Global Change scenarios, running river basin models and performing a cost-benefit analysis to define optimal strategies of adaptation. This methodology was supported by the creation of a flexible modelling system, which can link a wide range of models, such as hydrological, water quality, and water management models. The tool allows users to integrate their own models to the system, which can then exchange information among them automatically. This enables to simulate the interactions among multiple components of the water cycle, and run quickly a large number of Global Change scenarios. The outcomes of this project make possible to define and test different sets of adaptation measures for the basin that can be further evaluated through cost-benefit analysis. The integration of the results contributes to an efficient decision-making on how to adapt to Global Change impacts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. International regime formation: Ozone depletion and global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busmann, N.E.

    1994-03-01

    Two theoretical perspectives, neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, dominate in international relations. An assessment is made of whether these perspectives provide compelling explanations of why a regime with specific targets and timetables was formed for ozone depletion, while a regime with such specificity was not formed for global climate change. In so doing, the assumptions underlying neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism are examined. A preliminary assessment is offered of the policymaking and institutional bargaining process. Patterns of interstate behavior are evolving toward broader forms of cooperation, at least with regard to global environmental issues, although this process is both slow and cautious. State coalitions on specific issues are not yet powerful enough to create a strong community of states in which states are willing to devolve power to international institutions. It is shown that regime analysis is a useful analytic framework, but it should not be mistaken for theory. Regime analysis provides an organizational framework offering a set of questions regarding the principles and norms that govern cooperation and conflict in an issue area, and whether forces independent of states exist which affect the scope of state behavior. An examination of both neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, embodied by four approaches to regime formation, demonstrates that neither has sufficient scope to account for contextual dynamics in either the ozone depletion or global climate change regime formation processes. 261 refs.

  19. Mycotoxins in a changing global environment--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marroquín-Cardona, A G; Johnson, N M; Phillips, T D; Hayes, A W

    2014-07-01

    Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by fungal species that commonly contaminate staple foods and feeds. They represent an unavoidable problem due to their presence in globally consumed cereals such as rice, maize and wheat. Most mycotoxins are immunosuppressive agents and some are carcinogens, hepatotoxins, nephrotoxins, and neurotoxins. Worldwide trends envision a stricter control of mycotoxins, however, the changing global environment may not be the ideal setting to control and reduce the exposure to these toxins. Although new technologies allow us to inspect the multi-mycotoxin presence in foods, new sources of exposure, gaps in knowledge of mycotoxins interactions, appearance of "emergent" mycotoxins and elucidation of consequent health effects can complicate their control even more. While humans are adapting to cope with environmental changes, such as food scarcity, decreased food quality, mycotoxin regulations, crop production and seasonality, and other climate related modifications, fungal species are also adapting and increased cases of mycotoxin adverse health effects are likely to occur in the future. To guarantee access to quality food for all, we need a way to balance global mycotoxin standards with the realistic feasibility of reaching them, considering limitations of producers and designing strategies to reduce mycotoxin exposure based on sound research.

  20. Teaching global and local environmental change through Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauri, Emanuela Paola; Rossi, Giovanni

    2013-04-01

    Human beings perceive the world primarily through their sense of sight. This can explain why the use of images is so important and common in educational materials, in particular for scientific subjects. The development of modern technologies for visualizing the scientific features of the Earth has provided new opportunities for communicating the increasing complexity of science both to the public and in school education. In particular, the use of Earth observation satellites for civil purposes, which started in the 70s, has opened new perspectives in the study of natural phenomena and human impact on the environment; this is particularly relevant for those processes developing on a long term period and on a global scale. Instruments for Remote Sensing increase the power of human sight, giving access to additional information about the physical world, which the human eye could not otherwise perceive. The possibility to observe from a remote perspective significant processes like climate change, ozone depletion, desertification, urban development, makes it possible for observers to better appreciate and experience the complexity of environment. Remote Sensing reveals the impact of human activities on ecosystems: this allows students to understand important concepts like global and local change in much more depth. This poster describes the role and effectiveness of Remote Sensing imagery in scientific education, and its importance towards a better global environmental awareness.

  1. Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

    2001-12-01

    The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

  2. Application of transition metal isotope tracers in global change research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG Jinming; Thomas F. Pedersen

    2005-01-01

    High-precision isotope composition determinations using multicollector, magnetic-sector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS) have recently revealed that some transition metal isotopes such as those of Mo, Fe, Cu, Zn etc. can be used as biogeochemical tracers in global change research.The Mo isotope system may be useful in paleoredox investigations indicating that δ 97/95Mo in seawater may co-vary with changes in the relative proportions of anoxic and oxic sedimentation in the ocean, and that this variation may be recorded in δ 97/95Mo of anoxic sediments. The Mo continental flux into the oceans and the global Mo isotope budget can be estimated fromδ 97/95MO values. The Fe isotope composition in seawater is an important issue because Fe plays a controlling role in biological productivity in the oceans and its abundance in seawater may have substantial effect on climate changes. Iron isotope fractionations could result from bio- and abio-processes and have about 0.1% variation (δ 56/54Fe), so Fe isotopes considered alone cannot be used to distinguish the products of abiotic and biotic Fe processing in geological records. Cu and Zn isotopes are also used as biogeochemical tracers, but the researches are relatively less. This review mainly focuses on the methods for preparation, purification and determination of new isotope tracer samples, and on isotope applications in marine environmental changes.

  3. Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T.; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Doherty, Ruth M.; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Stevenson, David S.; Zeng, Guang

    2017-09-01

    Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. ), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM 2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM 2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

  4. Flavor Changing Neutral Currents in a Realistic Composite Technicolor Model

    CERN Document Server

    Carone, C D; Carone, Christopher D.; Hamilton, Rowan T.

    1993-01-01

    We consider the phenomenology of a composite technicolor model proposed recently by Georgi. Composite technicolor interactions produce four-quark operators in the low energy theory that contribute to flavor changing neutral current processes. While we expect operators of this type to be induced at the compositeness scale by the flavor-symmetry breaking effects of the preon mass matrices, the Georgi model also includes operators from higher scales that are not GIM-suppressed. Since these operators are potentially large, we study their impact on flavor changing neutral currents and CP violation in the neutral $B$, $D$, and $K$ meson systems.

  5. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  6. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodall, Christopher W; Domke, Grant M; Riley, Karin L; Oswalt, Christopher M; Crocker, Susan J; Yohe, Gary W

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass) and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor) with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario). Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making) using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation) among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1) robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2) projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change), and 3) appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States). Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery) suggests an operational forest C

  7. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher W Woodall

    Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational

  8. Change In Strategy - The Answer To Overcome Global Downturn

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siddhartha Ghosh

    Full Text Available In terms of overcoming the global downturn, innovative business strategy has three major dimensions namely, ‘Innovative Promotional Practices’, ‘Social and Organizational welfare’, and ‘Ethical behavior’. Fortunately most strategic dimensions in business and management are measurable so as to facilitate development ratings in order to compare and highlight the different levels of overcoming the global downturn. My research paper on the role of innovativebusiness strategy in overcoming the recession and succeeding in the postrecessionary period basically focus on the different categorical elements of business strategies and its direct or indirect impact on the medium and small scale organizations. For the better understanding of the term ‘INNOVATION’ I have carried out a letter by letter scrutinization of this golden term. It goes like this:I-IdeasN-New Plan or DesignN-Noticeable changesO-Optimum change valuationV-VarietyA-Adaptation to the New Environment/New BusinessT-Thought Process for Planned ChangesI-Ideological Developments in BusinessO-Optimization of the changesN-Numero Uno (How Innovation helps in Securing the topmostposition.In order to understand the impact of innovative business strategies n combating the downturn I have formulated four important and innovative strategies. Thesestrategies are:1. HBS Strategy (Holistic Business Strategy.2. PBS Strategy (Polymorphic Business Strategy.3. GBS Strategy (Green Business Strategy.4. CCBS Strategy. (Country-club Business Strategy.By following these innovative strategies an enterprise can reach the zeniths of success and successfully combat the global downturn.

  9. Global Assessment of Exploitable Surface Reservoir Storage under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L.; Parkinson, S.; Gidden, M.; Byers, E.; Satoh, Y.; Riahi, K.

    2016-12-01

    Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply systems, hydropower generation, flood control, and recreation services. Reliable reservoirs can be robust measures for water security and can help smooth out challenging seasonal variability of river flows. Yet, reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and can lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-uses and ecosystems. The anticipated population growth, land use and climate change in many regions globally suggest a critical need to assess the potential for appropriate reservoir capacity that can balance rising demands with long-term water security. In this research, we assessed exploitable reservoir potential under climate change and human development constraints by deriving storage-yield relationships for 235 river basins globally. The storage-yield relationships map the amount of storage capacity required to meet a given water demand based on a 30-year inflow sequence. Runoff data is simulated with an ensemble of Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) for each of five bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under four climate change pathways. These data are used to define future 30-year inflows in each river basin for time period between 2010 and 2080. The calculated capacity is then combined with geographical information of environmental and human development exclusion zones to further limit the storage capacity expansion potential in each basin. We investigated the reliability of reservoir potentials across different climate change scenarios and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to identify river basins where reservoir expansion will be particularly challenging. Preliminary results suggest large disparities in reservoir potential across basins: some basins have already approached exploitable reserves, while some others display abundant potential. Exclusions zones pose significant impact on the amount of actual exploitable storage and firm yields

  10. Flavour-changing neutral currents in models with extra ' boson

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Sahoo; L Maharana

    2004-09-01

    New neutral gauge bosons ' are the features of many models addressing the physics beyond the standard model. Together with the existence of new neutral gauge bosons, models based on extended gauge groups (rank > 4) often predict new charged fermions also. A mixing of the known fermions with new states, with exotic weak-isospin assignments (left-handed singlets and right-handed doublets) will induce tree-level flavour-changing neutral interactions mediated by exchange, while if the mixing is only with new states with ordinary weak-isospin assignments, the flavour-changing neutral currents are mainly due to the exchange of the new neutral gauge boson '. We review flavour-changing neutral currents in models with extra ' boson. Then we discuss some flavour-changing processes forbidden in the standard model and new contributions to standard model processes.

  11. Cloud physics considerations in global climate change studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Twomey, S.

    1995-09-01

    In predicting the global warming due to a doubling of CO{sub 2} it is important not to only evaluate the net effect of all the known feedback mechanisms, but to estimate the sensitivity to each. In other words, the partial derivatives as well as the total derivatives should be estimated. In order for relative humidity to remain constant, the liquid water content must be proportional to the cube root of the saturation vapor pressure and it is difficult to explain why this should be true. The point is that sensitivities to particles are as big as the direct carbon dioxide doubling effect, so that our uncertainty about which scenario is most realistic has important implications for our global change predictions. 2 figs.

  12. (Meeting on human dimensions of global environmental change)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S.

    1990-12-18

    Traveler attended the meeting of the Standing Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change of the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and the Scientific Symposium organized by the Standing Committee. The purpose of the meeting and symposium was to discuss the Draft Framework and the Workplan of the Standing Committee prior to its presentation to the 1990 Congress of the ISSC on November 28--30, 1990. The meetings indicate that ORNL Global Environmental Studies Center is on the international leading edge of human dimensions research, except in the area of human dimensions data systems. This weakness could be rectified by close collaboration with the efforts of the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in Michigan.

  13. The Effect of Tide on the Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Xuexiang; CHEN Zhen; CHEN Dianyou; Qiao Qiyuan

    2002-01-01

    The differential rotation between the solid and fluid spheres caused by tidal force could explain the 1500 to 1800-year cycle of the world's temperature. Strong tide increases the vertical and horizontal mixing of water in the oceans, drawing the cold Pacific water from the depths to the surface and the warm water from the west to the east, where it cools or warms the atmosphere above, absorbs or releases CO2 to decrease or increase greenhouse effect and to make La Nina or El Nino occur in the global. The moon's declination and obliquity of the ecliptic affect the tidal intensity. The exchange of tidal energy and tide-generating force caused by the sun, moon and major planets makes the earth's layers rotate in different speeds. The differenti-al rotation between solid and fluid of the earth is the basic reason for El Nino and global climate change.

  14. Biodiversity and global change. Adaptative responses to global change: results and prospective. IFB-GICC restitution colloquium; Biodiversite et changement global. Reponses adaptatives au changement global: resultats et prospective. Colloque de restitution IFB-GICC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Despres, L.; Hossaert-Mckey, M.; Martin, J.F.; Pont, D.; Valero, M.; Chave, J.; Benizri, E.; Amiaud, B.; Boury-Esnault, N.; Fritz, H.; Lavelle, P.; Martin, F.; Poulet, S.; Blanchard, F.; Cheddadi, R.; Dupouey, J.L.; Hulle, M.; Michaux, J.; Souissi, S.; Bridault, A.; Dambrine, E.; Gomez, B.; Thevenard, F.; Legendre, S.; Suc, J.P.; Zeitoun, V.; Bezancon, G.; Frascaria-Lacoste, N.; Ponsard, S.; Bourguet, D.; Vigne, J.D.; Doyen, L.; Joly, P.; Gourlet-Fleury, S.; Garnier, E.; Lebaron, Ph.; Boulinier, Th.; Chuine, I.; Jiguet, F.; Couvet, D.; Soussana, J.F.; Weimerskirsch, H.; Grosbois, V.; Bretagnolle, V

    2006-07-01

    Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)

  15. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

    2014-03-04

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.

  16. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  17. Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jian; Wang, Bin; Cane, Mark A; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi

    2013-01-31

    As a result of global warming, precipitation is likely to increase in high latitudes and the tropics and to decrease in already dry subtropical regions. The absolute magnitude and regional details of such changes, however, remain intensely debated. As is well known from El Niño studies, sea-surface-temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean can strongly influence global rainfall. Palaeoproxy evidence indicates that the difference between the warm west Pacific and the colder east Pacific increased in past periods when the Earth warmed as a result of increased solar radiation. In contrast, in most model projections of future greenhouse warming this gradient weakens. It has not been clear how to reconcile these two findings. Here we show in climate model simulations that the tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature gradient increases when the warming is due to increased solar radiation and decreases when it is due to increased greenhouse-gas forcing. For the same global surface temperature increase the latter pattern produces less rainfall, notably over tropical land, which explains why in the model the late twentieth century is warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period (around AD 1000-1250) but precipitation is less. This difference is consistent with the global tropospheric energy budget, which requires a balance between the latent heat released in precipitation and radiative cooling. The tropospheric cooling is less for increased greenhouse gases, which add radiative absorbers to the troposphere, than for increased solar heating, which is concentrated at the Earth's surface. Thus warming due to increased greenhouse gases produces a climate signature different from that of warming due to solar radiation changes.

  18. Response of Mycorrhizal Diversity to Current Climatic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen E. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Form and function of mycorrhizas as well as tracing the presence of the mycorrhizal fungi through the geological time scale are herein first addressed. Then mycorrhizas and plant fitness, succession, mycorrhizas and ecosystem function, and mycorrhizal resiliency are introduced. From this, four hypotheses are drawn: (1 mycorrhizal diversity evolved in response to changes in Global Climate Change (GCC environmental drivers, (2 mycorrhizal diversity will be modified by present changes in GCC environmental drivers, (3 mycorrhizal changes in response to ecological drivers of GCC will in turn modify plant, community, and ecosystem responses to the same, and (4 Mycorrhizas will continue to evolve in response to present and future changes in GCC factors. The drivers of climate change examined here are: CO2 enrichment, temperature rise, altered precipitation, increased N-deposition, habitat fragmentation, and biotic invasion increase. These impact the soil-rhizosphere, plant and fungal physiology and/or ecosystem(s directly and indirectly. Direct effects include changes in resource availability and change in distribution of mycorrhizas. Indirect effects include changes in below ground allocation of C to roots and changes in plant species distribution. GCC ecological drivers have been partitioned into four putative time frames: (1 Immediate (1–2 years impacts, associated with ecosystem fragmentation and habitat loss realized through loss of plant-hosts and disturbance of the soil; (2 Short-term (3–10 year impacts, resultant of biotic invasions of exotic mycorrhizal fungi, plants and pests, diseases and other abiotic perturbations; (3 Intermediate-term (11–20 year impacts, of cumulative and additive effects of increased N (and S deposition, soil acidification and other pollutants; and (4 Long-term (21–50+ year impacts, where increased temperatures and CO2 will destabilize global rainfall patterns, soil properties and plant ecosystem resilience. Due

  19. Adjusting to global change through clonal growth and epigenetic variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard S Dodd

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The earth is experiencing major changes in global and regional climates and changes are predicted to accelerate in the future. Many species will be under considerable pressure to evolve, to migrate, or be faced with extinction. Clonal plants would appear to be at a particular disadvantage due to their limited mobility and limited capacity for adaptation. However, they have outlived previous environmental shifts and clonal species have persisted for millenia. Clonal spread offers unique ecological advantages, such as resource sharing, risk sharing, and economies of scale among ramets within genotypes. We suggest that ecological attributes of clonal plants, in tandem with variation in gene regulation through epigenetic mechanisms that facilitate and optimize phenotype variation in response to environmental change may permit them to be well suited to projected conditions.

  20. The New Phase of the Global Policy on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Calanter

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, a phenomenon that occurs worldwide, is one of the great challenges of our times.The scientific community has repeatedly drawn policy makers attention to the imperative need to adopt ofpreventive, mitigation and adaptation measures to what constitutes a threat to the normal course of life onEarth. Adoption and entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, with its ratification by Russia, in February 2005represented a major step forward in the global struggle against climate change. In this moment, however, theconclusion in 2012 of the commitment period for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases provided by theProtocol, and the brokenness of this period, put in front of the international community the need for furtherpolicy measures to prevent and combating climate change and its effects.

  1. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL SEAWEED COMMUNITIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harley, Christopher D G; Anderson, Kathryn M; Demes, Kyle W; Jorve, Jennifer P; Kordas, Rebecca L; Coyle, Theraesa A; Graham, Michael H

    2012-10-01

    Seaweeds are ecologically important primary producers, competitors, and ecosystem engineers that play a central role in coastal habitats ranging from kelp forests to coral reefs. Although seaweeds are known to be vulnerable to physical and chemical changes in the marine environment, the impacts of ongoing and future anthropogenic climate change in seaweed-dominated ecosystems remain poorly understood. In this review, we describe the ways in which changes in the environment directly affect seaweeds in terms of their physiology, growth, reproduction, and survival. We consider the extent to which seaweed species may be able to respond to these changes via adaptation or migration. We also examine the extensive reshuffling of communities that is occurring as the ecological balance between competing species changes, and as top-down control by herbivores becomes stronger or weaker. Finally, we delve into some of the ecosystem-level responses to these changes, including changes in primary productivity, diversity, and resilience. Although there are several key areas in which ecological insight is lacking, we suggest that reasonable climate-related hypotheses can be developed and tested based on current information. By strategically prioritizing research in the areas of complex environmental variation, multiple stressor effects, evolutionary adaptation, and population, community, and ecosystem-level responses, we can rapidly build upon our current understanding of seaweed biology and climate change ecology to more effectively conserve and manage coastal ecosystems. © 2012 Phycological Society of America.

  2. Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Stackhouse, Paul W.

    2007-04-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, 7 of the last 9 yr have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  3. Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  4. Global Monitoring of Martian Surface Albedo Changes from Orbital Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geissler, P.; Enga, M.; Mukherjee, P.

    2013-12-01

    Martian surface changes were first observed from orbit during the Mariner 9 and Viking Orbiter missions. They were found to be caused by eolian processes, produced by deposition of dust during regional and global dust storms and subsequent darkening of the surface through erosion and transportation of dust and sand. The albedo changes accumulated in the 20 years between Viking and Mars Global Surveyor were sufficient to alter the global circulation of winds and the climate of Mars according to model calculations (Fenton et al., Nature 2007), but little was known about the timing or frequency of the changes. Since 1999, we have had the benefit of continuous monitoring by a series of orbiting spacecraft that continues today with Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Mars Odyssey, and Mars Express. Daily synoptic observations enable us to determine whether the surface albedo changes are gradual or episodic in nature and to record the seasons that the changes take place. High resolution images of surface morphology and atmospheric phenomena help identify the physical mechanisms responsible for the changes. From these data, we hope to learn the combinations of atmospheric conditions and sediment properties that produce surface changes on Mars and possibly predict when they will take place in the future. Martian surface changes are particularly conspicuous in low albedo terrain, where even a thin layer of bright dust brightens the surface drastically. Equatorial dark areas are repeatedly coated and recoated by dust, which is later shed from the surface by a variety of mechanisms. An example is Syrtis Major, suddenly buried in bright dust by the global dust storm of 2001. Persistent easterly winds blew much of the dust cover away over the course of the next Martian year, but episodic changes continue today, particularly during southern summer when regional dust storms are rife. Another such region is Solis Planum, south of the Valles Marineris, where changes take place

  5. Current status of alcohol marketing policy--an urgent challenge for global governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally

    2012-03-01

    To review research literature and available information on the extent and impacts of marketing, current policy response and the interests engaged in the policy debate in order to inform recommendations for policy change on alcohol marketing. Relevant literature, including systematic reviews and publicly available information (websites and participant observation) is reviewed and synthesized. Alcohol marketing has expanded markedly in the past 50 years and, while there remains uncertainty about the impact across the population, there is now clear evidence of its impact on the consumption of young people. Few countries have effective policy in place restricting alcohol marketing, and there is a lack of an international response to alcohol marketing which crosses national boundaries. The protection of alcohol marketing has been a major focus for vested interest groups and this has affected governmental response at national and international levels. There has been a lack of non-governmental organization engagement. The policy response to tobacco marketing provides a clear contrast to that of alcohol marketing policy and provides a model for alcohol marketing policy. The global exposure of young people to alcohol marketing requires an urgent policy response. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provides an appropriate model for global governance to control alcohol marketing. There are extant examples of national level legislation achieving comprehensive bans with France's Loi Evin providing a feasible model. Resources from philanthropic organizations to allow non-governmental organization engagement are urgently required, as is engagement by the governmental sector independent of commercial influence. © 2012 The Author, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. European network for research in global change (ENRICH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghazi, A. [European Commission, Bruxelles (Belgium). DG XII/JRC

    1995-12-31

    While approaching the beginning of the twenty first century, the scientific community is faced with the formidable tasks of monitoring and detecting, understanding and predicting changes in the Earth System and its interactions with human beings. A crucial challenge is to make scientific research results accessible and usable for those involved in the decision making process related to the concept of Sustainable Development. Major international scientific programmes under the umbrella of ICSU, such as the IGBP and WCRP, are dealing with these issues. Although there exist many well developed global change research programmes in several European countries and effective collaboration networks between research institutes, there is an urgent need for overall communication with a view to promoting wider international links ensuring complementarity, synergy and coherence. Recognizing the importance of promoting coherence in research and utilising research results for various European Union (EU) policies, the European Commissioner responsible for Science, Research and Development wrote in March 1992 to all the EU Research Ministers to propose an initiative in this domain. In a rapid response, a group of Senior Experts from the EU Member States was set up in April 1992. This Group established a Task Force to develop the concept of the European Network for Research In Global CHange (ENRICH) which was approved in July 1993

  7. Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T B; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-04-01

    Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network.

  8. Invasive termites in a changing climate: A global perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Bertelsmeier, Cleo

    2017-02-01

    Termites are ubiquitous insects in tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate regions and play an important role in ecosystems. Several termite species are also significant economic pests, mainly in urban areas where they attack human-made structures, but also in natural forest habitats. Worldwide, approximately 28 termite species are considered invasive and have spread beyond their native ranges, often with significant economic consequences. We used predictive climate modeling to provide the first global risk assessment for 13 of the world's most invasive termites. We modeled the future distribution of 13 of the most serious invasive termite species, using two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and two projection years (2050 and 2070). Our results show that all but one termite species are expected to significantly increase in their global distribution, irrespective of the climatic scenario and year. The range shifts by species (shift vectors) revealed a complex pattern of distributional changes across latitudes rather than simple poleward expansion. Mapping of potential invasion hotspots in 2050 under the RCP 4.5 scenario revealed that the most suitable areas are located in the tropics. Substantial parts of all continents had suitable environmental conditions for more than four species simultaneously. Mapping of changes in the number of species revealed that areas that lose many species (e.g., parts of South America) are those that were previously very species-rich, contrary to regions such as Europe that were overall not among the most important invasion hotspots, but that showed a great increase in the number of potential invaders. The substantial economic and ecological damage caused by invasive termites is likely to increase in response to climate change, increased urbanization, and accelerating economic globalization, acting singly or interactively.

  9. Andean Uplift in the Context of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffery, Louise; Poulsen, Chris; Ehlers, Todd; Insel, Nadja

    2010-05-01

    The two primary causes of South American climate change over the last 40 million years are global climate change and the uplift of the Andes Mountains. Quantifying spatial and temporal variations in climate over the duration of Andean surface uplift is necessary for interpreting palaeoclimate, erosion and palaeoelevation records from the region. This study utilises an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) to investigate the magnitude and relative importance of 1) global climate and 2) Andean surface uplift to South American climate during the last 40Ma. Combined with knowledge from the geologic record, the results constrain the controls on, and timing of, landscape development. Three different atmospheric CO2 levels (1, 2 and 4x pre-industrial levels - 280ppm) are used to simulate the range of global climate since the early Cenozoic. Surface uplift of the Andes is examined with simulations at three different Andean elevations (100%, 50% and 5% of modern heights). The importance of feedbacks associated with global climate change is assessed with additional simulations incorporating 1) no Antarctic Ice Sheet and 2) an equilibrium vegetation model coupled to the climate model. Initial results show that the elevation of the Andes exerts a much stronger control on South American precipitation than does the atmospheric CO2 level. The presence of the Andes leads to an increase in annual average precipitation rates of up to 8 mm/day at 20⁰S on the eastern flanks of the mountain range. An increase in CO2 levels from 1x to 4x pre-industrial levels increases the intensity of the global hydrological cycle with annual average precipitation rates increasing by up to 5mm/day. At 50% and 5% Andean elevation, precipitation patterns over South America are independent of atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, at 100% Andean elevation South American precipitation is sensitive to high (4x) CO2 levels. Most large-scale circulation patterns over South America are consistent

  10. A Decade on the Global Change EPO Trail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzenberger, J. W.; Somerville, R. C.

    2002-12-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) offers a variety of approaches to enhance K-12 Earth systems science education through pre- and in-service educator professional development workshops, materials development, and experiences for scientists on roles they can play in education and outreach. Partnering institutions have included the Space Science Institute, NASA Earth Science Enterprise, and NSF Geosciences. Here we review approaches and lessons learned from three projects. 1) The Ground Truth Studies teacher workshops and the development of the Ground Truth Studies Teacher Handbook, funded as a cooperative agreement with NASA and other sources. This project was developed with Earth system scientists, environmental education curriculum developers, K-12 teachers and was piloted in several states. The project culminated in the development of the teacher handbook which includes primers on global change, remote sensing, elementary and secondary level hands-on activities, and resources. This publication has been utilized in conjunction with other teacher training programs or as a stand-alone resource for teachers. 2) PESTO (Pre- and In-Service Earth Science Training Opportunity) funded by NASA, a residential week-long intensive experience for pre- and in-service teachers offered for graduate and undergraduate credit. The PESTO faculty included a senior research scientist, an environmental educator/curriculum developer, and an EPO specialist. Content included an overview of global environmental change with an emphasis on climate and atmospheric chemistry and a review of online and CD resources relevant to elementary and secondary Earth systems topics. Visiting scientists engaged the group in the process of science and issues associated with science in society. 3) Workshop on K-12 Education for Geoscientists, a NSF/Geosciences sponsored project was a mini-workshop embedded within one of AGCI's interdisciplinary science meetings on a topic in global change. The

  11. Small Satellites and RPAs in Global-Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-12-01

    Cornwall F. Dyson N. Fortson R. Garwin S. Koonin C. Max G. MacDonald S. Ride M. Ruderman S. Treiman J. Vesecky R. Westervelt F. Zachariasen DTIC...in Global-Change Research1 6. AUTHOR(S) PR - 8503A P. Banks, J. Cornwall , F. Dyson, N. Fortson, F. Garwin, S. Koonin, C. Max, G. MacDonald, S. Ride, M...press). 2. Charlson, R., J. Lovelock, M. Andreae , and S. Warren (1987) Oceanic phytoplankton, atmospheric sulfur, cloud albedo and climate. Nature 326

  12. Integrating comparative functional response experiments into global change research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Eoin J

    2014-05-01

    There is a growing appreciation for the importance of non-consumptive effects in predator-prey interaction research, which can often outweigh the importance of direct feeding. Barrios-O'Neill et al. (2014) report a novel method to characterize such effects by comparing the functional response of native and introduced intermediate consumers in the presence and absence of a higher predator. The invader exhibited stronger direct feeding and was also more resistant to intimidation by the higher predator. This experimental framework may be incorporated into mainstream global change research, for example, to quantify the importance of non-consumptive effects for the success or failure of biological invasions.

  13. A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature changeTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  14. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to 1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  15. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to 1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  16. Global Electric Circuit Implications of Total Current Measurements over Electrified Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Douglas M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.

    2009-01-01

    We determined total conduction (Wilson) currents and flash rates for 850 overflights of electrified clouds spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, with and without lightning, and with positive and negative Wilson currents. We combined these individual storm overflight statistics with global diurnal lightning variation data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) to estimate the thunderstorm and electrified shower cloud contributions to the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit. The contributions to the global electric circuit from lightning producing clouds are estimated by taking the mean current per flash derived from the overflight data for land and ocean overflights and combining it with the global lightning rates (for land and ocean) and their diurnal variation derived from the LIS/OTD data. We estimate the contribution of non-lightning producing electrified clouds by assuming several different diurnal variations and total non-electrified storm counts to produce estimates of the total storm currents (lightning and non-lightning producing storms). The storm counts and diurnal variations are constrained so that the resultant total current diurnal variation equals the diurnal variation in the fair weather electric field (+/-15%). These assumptions, combined with the airborne and satellite data, suggest that the total mean current in the global electric circuit ranges from 2.0 to 2.7 kA, which is greater than estimates made by others using other methods.

  17. Global Electric Circuit Implications of Total Current Measurements over Electrified Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Douglas M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.

    2009-01-01

    We determined total conduction (Wilson) currents and flash rates for 850 overflights of electrified clouds spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, with and without lightning, and with positive and negative Wilson currents. We combined these individual storm overflight statistics with global diurnal lightning variation data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) to estimate the thunderstorm and electrified shower cloud contributions to the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit. The contributions to the global electric circuit from lightning producing clouds are estimated by taking the mean current per flash derived from the overflight data for land and ocean overflights and combining it with the global lightning rates (for land and ocean) and their diurnal variation derived from the LIS/OTD data. We estimate the contribution of non-lightning producing electrified clouds by assuming several different diurnal variations and total non-electrified storm counts to produce estimates of the total storm currents (lightning and non-lightning producing storms). The storm counts and diurnal variations are constrained so that the resultant total current diurnal variation equals the diurnal variation in the fair weather electric field (+/-15%). These assumptions, combined with the airborne and satellite data, suggest that the total mean current in the global electric circuit ranges from 2.0 to 2.7 kA, which is greater than estimates made by others using other methods.

  18. The changing role of the World Bank in global health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruger, Jennifer Prah

    2005-01-01

    The World Bank began operations on June 25, 1946. Although it was established to finance European reconstruction after World War II, the bank today is a considerable force in the health, nutrition, and population (HNP) sector in developing countries. Indeed, it has evolved from having virtually no presence in global health to being the world's largest financial contributor to health-related projects, now committing more than $1 billion annually for new HNP projects. It is also one of the world's largest supporters in the fight against HIV/AIDS, with commitments of more than $1.6 billion over the past several years. I have mapped this transformation in the World Bank's role in global health, illustrating shifts in the bank's mission and financial orientation, as well as the broader changes in development theory and practice. Through a deepened understanding of the complexities of development, the World Bank now regards investments in HNP programs as fundamental to its role in the global economy.

  19. Lifespan changes in global and selective stopping and performance adjustments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Christina Van De Laar

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examined stopping and performance adjustments in four age groups (M ages: 8, 12, 21, and 76 years. All participants performed on three tasks, a standard two-choice task and the same task in which stop-signal trials were inserted requiring either the suppression of the response activated by the choice stimulus (global stop task or the suppression of the response when one stop signal was presented but not when the other stop signal occurred (selective stop task. The results showed that global stopping was faster than selective stopping in all age groups. Global stopping matured more rapidly than selective stopping. The developmental gain in stopping was considerably more pronounced compared to the loss observed during senescence. All age groups slowed the response on trials without a stop signal in the stop task compared to trials in the choice task, the elderly in particular. In addition, all age groups slowed on trials following stop-signal trials, except the elderly who did not slow following successful inhibits. By contrast, the slowing following failed inhibits was disproportionally larger in the elderly compared to young adults. Finally, sequential effects did not alter the pattern of performance adjustments. The results were interpreted in terms of developmental change in the balance between proactive and reactive control.

  20. Global Change Research: Summaries of research in FY 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-10-01

    This document describes the activities and products of the Global Research Program in FY 1993. This publication describes all of the projects funded by the Environmental Sciences Division of DOE under annual contracts, grants, and interagency agreements in FY 1993. Each description contains the project`s title; its 3-year funding history (in thousands of dollars); the period over which the funding applies; the name(s) of the principal investigator(s); the institution(s) conducting the projects; and the project`s objectives, products, approach, and results to date (for most projects older than 1 year). Project descriptions are categorized within the report according to program areas: climate modeling, quantitative links, global carbon cycle, vegetation research, ocean research, economics of global climate change, education, information and integration, and NIGEC. Within these categories, the descriptions are grouped alphabetically by principal investigator. Each program area is preceded by a brief text that defines the program area, states its goals and objectives, lists principal research questions, and identifies program managers.

  1. TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.)

    1991-12-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N{sub 2}O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO{sub 2} emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  2. Hurricanes and Climate Change: Global Systems and Local Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santer, J.

    2011-12-01

    With funding from NOAA, the Miami Science Museum has been working with exhibit software developer Ideum to create an interactive exhibit exploring the global dimensions and local impacts of climate change. A particular focus is on climate-related impacts on coastal communities, including the potential effects on South Florida of ocean acidification, rising sea level, and the possibility of more intense hurricanes. The exhibit is using a 4-foot spherical display system in conjunction with a series of touchscreen kiosks and accompanying flat screens to create a user-controlled, multi-user interface that lets visitors control the sphere and choose from a range of global and local content they wish to explore. The exhibit has been designed to promote engagement of diverse, multigenerational audiences through development of a fully bilingual user interface that promotes social interaction and conversation among visitors as they trade off control of global content on the sphere and related local content on the flat screens. The open-source learning module will be adaptable by other museums, to explore climate impacts specific to their region.

  3. The LandScan Global Population Distribution Project: Current State of the Art and Prospective Innovation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Advances in remote sensing, dasymetric mapping techniques, and the ever-increasing availability of spatial datasets have enhanced global human population distribution databases. These datasets demonstrate an enormous improvement over the conventional use of choropleth maps to represent population distribution and are vital for analysis and planning purposes including humanitarian response, disease mapping, risk analysis, and evacuation modeling. Dasymetric mapping techniques have been employed to address spatial mismatch, but also to develop finer resolution population distributions in areas of the world where subnational census data are coarse or non-existent. One such implementation is the LandScan Global model which provides a 30 arc-second global population distribution based on ancillary datasets such as land cover, slope, proximity to roads, and settlement locations. This work will review the current state of the LandScan model, future innovations aimed at increasing spatial and demographic resolution, and situate LandScan within the landscape of other global population distribution datasets.

  4. Climate Change Management Approaches of Cities: A Comparative Study Between Globally Leading and Turkish Metropolitan Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solmaz Filiz Karabag

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have focused on climate change policies and action at the national level, but few have studied policies and action at the city level, especially cities in emerging economies. To address this gap, the present study analyzes the management strategies globally leading cities have developed to address climate change and related issues and compares them with the city strategies of one rapidly urbanizing emerging economy, Turkey. In the analysis, the strategic plans of five leading global cities are compared with those of sixteen Turkish cities. While the leading global cities have specific managerial approaches to mitigate climate change, none of the Turkish cities exhibits any comprehensive approach. Furthermore, while leading global cities modify urban services to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, few Turkish cities adjust any services to address this challenge. Some Turkish cities propose an increased use of renewable energy sources and modification in their transportation system, but the focus in these plans is the current daily needs of their inhabitants. The findings of this study suggest several climate change strategies both for Turkish cities and cities in other developing countries.

  5. An essay on global carbon budget approaches-Are we ready to deal with global climate changes now?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qian YE

    2011-01-01

    In this paper,a simple analysis is conducted for the purpose of addressing a simple but fundamental question,i.e.,does the world have the capability in sciences,economics and governance to deal with the global climate change today and what should we do? By pointing out that although understanding of multidimensionality and nonlinearity of global changes from both natural and social sciences has been advanced significantly,it is extremely difficult,if not impossible,to find a single solution for global climate change because of the multi-dimensionality of social components and the nonlinearity of natural elements inherent in the global climate systems.

  6. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

    2016-01-01

    An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of mercury world-wide are presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the m

  7. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

    2016-01-01

    An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of mercury world-wide are presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the

  8. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pacyna, J. M.; Travnikov, O.; De Simone, F.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Sundseth, K.; Pacyna, E. G.; Steenhuisen, F.; Pirrone, N.; Munthe, J.; Kindbom, K.

    2016-01-01

    An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the

  9. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenhuisen, Frits

    2016-01-01

    An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the ma

  10. Our changing planet: The FY 1994 US Global Change Research Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-09-01

    The approach of the US Global Change Research Program recognizes the profound economic and social implications of responding to global envirorunental changes and advances US leadership on this issue. The report outlines a careful blend of ground- and space-based efforts in research, data gathering, and modeling activities, as well as economic research, with both near- and long-term scientific and public policy benefits. In FY 1994, the Program will add an explicit focus on assessment, seeking to improve our understanding of the state of scientific knowledge and the implications of that knowledge for national and international policymaking activities.

  11. Observing Magnetic and Current Profiles of the Night side and Terminator of Mars through the Mars Global Surveyor Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponce, N.; Fillingim, M. O.; Fogle, A. L.

    2014-12-01

    Mars has no global magnetic field. Changes in the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field can impact the upper atmosphere and induce currents in the ionosphere of Mars. During aerobraking maneuvers, Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) made over 1000 passes through Mars's ionosphere. During these passes, MGS measured the local magnetic field. From these measurements, we can determine the ionospheric currents. We restrict our analysis to passes where the radial component of the magnetic field is nearly zero. This restriction, along with some assumptions about the gradients in the magnetic field, allows us to estimate the horizontal ionospheric currents. Additionally, we focus on the magnetic field data acquired over regions above negligible crustal magnetic fields in order to simplify the analysis. At a maximum altitude of 250 km, the Mars map was segmented to 30 by 30 degrees east longitude and latitude for analysis. We find that on the night side, where the solar zenith angle (SZA) lies between 130 to 180 degrees, only 4% of the data (out of a total of 52 profiles) is usable for computing currents, that is the radial component of the magnetic field is nearly zero. We also find that near the terminator, where the SZA lies between 50 to 130 degrees, an average of 2% of the magnetic field profiles (out of 1905) are usable to compute currents. This implies that currents are rarely horizontal (as required by our assumptions) in these regions. The currents computed from these profiles can give us insights into how the changing solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field can affect the upper atmosphere of Mars. For example, induced currents can lead to Joule heating of the atmosphere potentially modifying the neutral dynamics.

  12. The organization of global negotiations: constructing the climate change regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Depledge, Joanna

    2005-02-15

    The basic assumption of this book is that the organization of a negotiation process matters. The global negotiations on climate change involve over 180 countries and innumerable observers and other participants, addressing enormously complex and economically vital issues with conflicting agendas. For the UN to create an effective and well-supported international regime has required enormous and very skilful organization: factors such as the role of the Chair, the choice of negotiating arenas, the rules for the conduct of business and the approach of negotiating texts are usually taken for granted, and rarely attract attention until something goes wrong. This book explores how the negotiations were organized to produce the Kyoto Protocol to the Climate Change Convention and the subsequent Bonn Agreements and Marrakesh Accords. The author draws out the lessons and implications for other intricate and far-reaching negotiations, not all of which have succeeded so far, such as the WTO trade negotiations at Seattle and Cancun. (Author)

  13. Gender, technology change and globalization: the case of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, H; Zhao, M

    1999-01-01

    This paper reviews the experience of women workers in China while the country's economy is changing into a globalized, technologically advanced one. New computer-based technology is increasingly acknowledged as a powerful and pervasive force that can shape or, at least in many ways, affect employment. It is hailed for opening up fresh employment opportunities and reducing the physical stress involved in work. However, the possibilities of redundancies or intensification of workload also exist. By focusing on changes in women's work, the article reveals the contradictions inherent in following a development path based on ever-higher levels of technology in the context of an intensive mode of production, to which productivity is the core value. The economy is bolstered and some workers gain employment in expanding industries. However, workers, who lack access to training and who are reliant on the dwindling state support for their reproductive responsibilities, are marginalized and seek employment in the growing informal economy.

  14. Combined impacts of global changes on biodiversity across the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellard, C; Leclerc, C; Courchamp, F

    2015-07-07

    Most studies of the effects of global changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat, but multiple threats lead to species extinction. We lack spatially explicit assessments of the intensity of multiple threats and their impacts on biodiversity. Here, we used a novel metric of cumulative threats and impacts to assess the consequences of multiple threats on 196 endemic species across the USA. We predict that large areas with high cumulative impact scores for amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles will be concentrated in the eastern part of the USA by the 2050 s and 2080  . These high cumulative impact values are due mainly to the presence of invasive species, climate change, cropland and pasture areas; additionally, a significant proportion of endemic species are vulnerable to some of these threats where they occur. This analysis provides a useful means of identifying where conservation measures and monitoring programs that should consider multiple threats should be implemented in the future.

  15. Trends and responses to global change of China's arid regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Weixi YANG

    2009-01-01

    Ⅰ analyzed and elaborated the trends in and responses to global change in arid regions of China, from the perspective of nine variables, i.e., temperature, precipitation, river runoff, melting glaciers, water level of lakes, wind power and evaporation, vegetation, oases, and desertification. The climate and hydrology data Ⅰ citedrepresent many years of observations. Ⅰ conclude that, since the 1980s, the climate in arid regions of China has clearly changed with rising temperatures and precipitation in most areas. Wind power and the number of galestorm days have continuously decreased, which resulted in an improvement of humid conditions and increases in river discharge and water levels of lakes. Simultaneously, vegetation also has improved and the process of deserti-fication has essentially been arrested. Although there are some unfavorable developments, such as decreased river flows or flow interruptions and downstream oases have suffered from degradation, these incidental cases should not distract our attention from the generally favorable trends during the middle and late 20th century. These discordant phenomena are not consequences of climate change but rather of unsuitable human activities. Despitea substantial increase in precipitation, the level of the original precipitation was so small that any increase in precipitation was still small. As a result, none of the fundamental conditions such as a scarcity of water resources and precipitation nor the landscape of drought-ridden deserts in the arid regions will change. The vulnerability of the eco-environmental system in the arid regions will not change fundamentally either in the near future.

  16. Conceptual framework for research on global change 1992-1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    For a better overall understanding of the Earth system scientists have initiated extensive international research programs dealing with the dynamics of the Earth system. These activities are characterized by their interdisciplinary, border crossing, and system orientated approach. For a long time scientists from the Federal Republic of Germany participate significantly in the conception and completion of such programs. The more and more urgent questions from politics and from the public have prompted the Federal Government under the leadership of the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology to increase these efforts. In this the Federal Government will also be supported by the Scientific Advisory Committee appointed by it, which annually presents a report on the state of global changes and their consequences. In this brochure the Conceptual Framework for Research on Global Changes is presented, which was passed by the Federal Cabinet in April 1992. It is documenting the advanced state of research, which has already been achieved in this country. At the same time, however, it is made clear that significant further steps have to be taken to contribute to the solution of the most urgent problems of the world. (orig.)

  17. THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phelan, Patrick [Arizona State University; Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Otanicar, Todd [University of Tulsa; Phelan, Bernadette [Phelan Research Solutions, Inc.; Prasher, Ravi [Arizona State University; Taylor, Robert [University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Tyagi, Himanshu [Indian Institute of Technology Ropar, India

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

  18. Changes in Global Silicate Weathering Feedbacks over Phanerozoic Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    The release of carbon from the solid Earth exerts a first-order control on the evolution of the planetary environment. This basic climate forcing is modulated by a host of chemical reactions at the Earth's surface, the pace of which are in turn regulated by tectonic forces. Together, these various pieces in the puzzle of the global carbon cycle have been identified for decades, but understanding of how they fit together has remained elusive and continues to be much debated. In particular, we now know the climate-dependence of silicate mineral weathering may vary as a function of denudation rate, which is related to tectonic drivers. This variation suggests that the strength of the weathering feedback may have varied in the past, with consequent implications for the past state of global climate. This work will survey and synthesize approaches to representing changes in the weathering feedback, showing that relatively simple parameterizations yield similar results as recently developed reactive transport approaches. This similarity gives confidence in applying the simple parameterizations to reconstructing changes in feedback strength in the geologic past, at least over Phanerozoic timescales, and allows inclusion of this effect explicitly in carbon cycle models.

  19. Global-Change research in Norway. National inventory of Global Change research in Norway i 2011; Global Change-forskning i Norge. En kartlegging av norsk Global change-forskning i 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    From the preface: The Norwegian Global Change (GC) Committee is appointed by the Research Council and works to strengthen the association of Norwegian researchers and research to the international GC programs and IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). As part of this effort, the Committee wanted a survey of Norwegian research activities linked to these programs. CICERO was engaged to carry out survey work in dialogue with the Research and GC Committee. The results of the survey are presented in this report. The GC programs are: World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International geosphere-biosphere program (IGBP), International program of biodiversity science (DIVERSITAS), International Human Dimension Programme Wed Global Environmental Change (IHDP). In addition to IIASA. The results of the survey will be, and is, used as a basis for further activities of the Committee in terms of incentives that can increase the internationalization of Norwegian research. Furthermore, it help to ensure good coupling to these programs in their transition to a common platform in the international Future Earth Initiative (http://www.icsu.org/future-earth).(eb)

  20. The real ecological fallacy: epidemiology and global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Nancy

    2015-08-01

    Prompted by my participation in the People's Climate March held in New York City on 21 September 2014, as part of the 'Harvard Divest' contingent, in this brief essay I reflect on the late 20th century development of--and debates over--the necessity of ecological thinking in epidemiology, and also the still limited engagement of our field with work on the health impact of global climate change. Revisiting critiques about the damaging influence of methodological individualism on our field, I extend critique of the still influential notion of 'ecological fallacy,' including its wilful disregard for ecology itself as being pertinent to people's ways of living--and dying. Indeed, the real 'ecological fallacy' is to think epidemiologists or others could ever understand the people's health except in societal and ecological, and hence historical, context. I conclude by urging all of us, as members of the broader scientific community, whether or not we directly study the health impacts of the planetary emergency of global climate change, to step up by joining the call for universities to divest from fossil fuels.

  1. Sports, Global Politics, and Social Value Change: A Research Agenda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Rensmann

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Despite their important role in forging, constructing and self-ascribing social identities and shaping popular culture, sports have long been a marginalized subject of social science inquiry, cultural studies, and research on international politics. Only in recent years this has begun to change. The article seeks to advance the still nascent but emerging cross-disciplinary field of research on sports and global politics in two ways: first, by addressing largely unexplored issues of sports, politics, and social conflicts, putting the spotlight on sociopolitical arenas beyond commercialized sports mega events, which have attracted most scholarly attention in contemporary research; and second, by generating hypotheses on the indirect political effects of sports cultures, in particular on the relationship between local social identities—reinforced through sports—and cosmopolitan value change. These interlinked spatial and substantive claims ground a new critical research framework and agenda: it examines sports as profoundly embedded in socioeconomic, cultural and political forms of rule and domination but also seeks to disclose sports’ emancipatory and subversive potential in advancing globalization from below.

  2. Estimating global chlorophyll changes over the past century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Daniel G.; Dowd, Michael; Lewis, Marlon R.; Worm, Boris

    2014-03-01

    Marine phytoplankton account for approximately half of the production of organic matter on earth, support virtually all marine ecosystems, constrain fisheries yields, and influence climate and weather. Despite this importance, long-term trajectories of phytoplankton abundance or biomass are difficult to estimate, and the extent of changes is unresolved. Here, we use a new, publicly-available database of historical shipboard oceanographic measurements to estimate long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration (Chl; a widely used proxy for phytoplankton biomass) from 1890 to 2010. This work builds upon an earlier analysis (Boyce et al., 2010) by taking published criticisms into account, and by using recalibrated data, and novel analysis methods. Rates of long-term chlorophyll change were estimated using generalized additive models within a multi-model inference framework, and post hoc sensitivity analyses were undertaken to test the robustness of results. Our analysis revealed statistically significant Chl declines over 62% of the global ocean surface area where data were present, and in 8 of 11 large ocean regions. While Chl increases have occurred in many locations, weighted syntheses of local- and regional-scale estimates confirmed that average chlorophyll concentrations have declined across the majority of the global ocean area over the past century. Sensitivity analyses indicate that these changes do not arise from any bias between data types, nor do they depend upon the method of spatial or temporal aggregation, nor the use of a particular statistical model. The wider consequences of this long-term decline of marine phytoplankton are presently unresolved, but will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystem structure, geochemical cycling, and fishery yields.

  3. Vulnerability of Hidropower Generation in Amazon's Tributaries Under Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Randow, R.; Siqueira, J. L., Jr.; Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.; Floriano, L. E.

    2014-12-01

    The Brazilian energy sector is under continued expansion. The majority of energy power generation in the country is done through hydropower, which represents around 88% of the energy originated from renewable sources in the country. Still, only 10% of the high potential for production of the Amazon basin is currently availed, and this raises attention for the implantation of new hydropower plants in the region. When a hydropower plant is considered to be built, the natural characteristics of the region are taken into account, considering that the rainfall regime follows certain stationarity. However, under the possibility of global change, the expected capacity of the plants may be compromised. The objective of this study is to evaluate if the current hydropower plants of some Amazon River tributaries can maintain their functionality under global environmental change conditions. For that, based on the discharge data and hydropower information available by Brazilian National Agency of Water and Energy we will infer the energy potential of these hydropower dams for the historic period that will be compared with the energy potential for future discharge under global environmental change conditions. The future discharge will be generated by the Distributed Hydrological Model developed at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE), driven by different climate change scenarios projected by regional and global atmospheric models, associated with land use scenarios projected by a dynamic land use model (LUCC-ME/INPE). MHD-INPE will be calibrated through observed discharges for 1970-1990 using current land use conditions, and will generate discharges for the period of 2000 to 2050. In addition, special attention will be given to the presence of secondary forest growth in the land use scenarios in order to identify the importance of considering this use in the modelling exercise, since that use is not usually considered in hydrological modelling studies.

  4. Earth's changing global atmospheric energy cycle in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yefeng; Li, Liming; Jiang, Xun; Li, Gan; Zhang, Wentao; Wang, Xinyue; Ingersoll, Andrew P

    2017-01-24

    The Lorenz energy cycle is widely used to investigate atmospheres and climates on planets. However, the long-term temporal variations of such an energy cycle have not yet been explored. Here we use three independent meteorological data sets from the modern satellite era, to examine the temporal characteristics of the Lorenz energy cycle of Earth's global atmosphere in response to climate change. The total mechanical energy of the global atmosphere basically remains constant with time, but the global-average eddy energies show significant positive trends. The spatial investigations suggest that these positive trends are concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere. Significant positive trends are also found in the conversion, generation and dissipation rates of energies. The positive trends in the dissipation rates of kinetic energies suggest that the efficiency of the global atmosphere as a heat engine increased during the modern satellite era.

  5. Enhancing climate literacy through the use of an interdisciplinary global change framework and conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Zoehfeld, K.; Mitchell, K.; Levine, J.; White, L. D.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding climate change and how to mitigate the causes and consequences of anthropogenic activities are essential components of the Next Generations Science Standards. To comprehend climate change today and why current rates and magnitudes of change are of concern, students must understand the various factors that drive Earth system processes and also how they interrelate. The Understanding Global Change web resource in development from the UC Museum of Paleontology will provide science educators with a conceptual framework, graphical models, lessons, and assessment templates for teaching NGSS aligned, interdisciplinary, climate change curricula. To facilitate students learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system of ongoing processes, the Understanding Global Change site will provide explicit conceptual links for the causes of climate change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation), Earth system processes (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and the changes scientists measure in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation). The conceptual links among topics will be presented in a series of storyboards that visually represent relationships and feedbacks among components of the Earth system and will provide teachers with guides for implementing NGSS-aligned climate change instruction that addresses physical science, life sciences, Earth and space science, and engineering performance expectations. These visualization and instructional methods are used by teachers during professional development programs at UC Berkeley and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History and are being tested in San Francisco Bay Area classrooms.

  6. Animal viral diseases and global change: Bluetongue and West Nile fever as paradigms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Angel eJimenez-Clavero

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental changes have an undoubted influence on the appearance, distribution and evolution of infectious diseases, and notably on those transmitted by vectors. Global change refers to environmental changes arising from human activities affecting the fundamental mechanisms operating in the biosphere. This paper discusses the changes observed in recent times with regard to some important arboviral (arthropod-borne viral diseases of animals, and the role global change could have played in these variations. Two of the most important arboviral diseases of animals, bluetongue and West Nile fever/encephalitis, have been selected as models. In both cases, in the last 15 years an important leap forward has been observed, which has lead to considering them emerging diseases in different parts of the world. Bluetongue, affecting domestic ruminants, has recently afflicted livestock in Europe in an unprecedented epizootic, causing enormous economic losses. West Nile fever/encephalitis affects wildlife (birds, domestic animals (equines and humans, thus, beyond the economic consequences of its occurrence, as a zoonotic disease, it poses an important public health threat. West Nile virus has expanded in the last 12 years worldwide, and particularly in the Americas, where it first occurred in 1999, extending throughout the Americas relentlessly since then, causing a severe epidemic of disastrous consequences for public health, wildlife and livestock. In Europe, West Nile virus is known long time ago, but it is since the last years of the XXth century that its incidence has risen substantially. Circumstances such as global warming, changes in land use and water management, increase in travel, trade of animals, and others, can have an important influence in the observed changes in both diseases. The following question is raised: What is the contribution of global changes to the current increase of these diseases in the world?

  7. Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF: properties and frontier of current knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aas IH Monrad

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF is well known internationally and widely used for scoring the severity of illness in psychiatry. Problems with GAF show a need for its further development (for example validity and reliability problems. The aim of the present study was to identify gaps in current knowledge about properties of GAF that are of interest for further development. Properties of GAF are defined as characteristic traits or attributes that serve to define GAF (or may have a role to define a future updated GAF. Methods A thorough literature search was conducted. Results A number of gaps in knowledge about the properties of GAF were identified: for example, the current GAF has a continuous scale, but is a continuous or categorical scale better? Scoring is not performed by setting a mark directly on a visual scale, but could this improve scoring? Would new anchor points, including key words and examples, improve GAF (anchor points for symptoms, functioning, positive mental health, prognosis, improvement of generic properties, exclusion criteria for scoring in 10-point intervals, and anchor points at the endpoints of the scale? Is a change in the number of anchor points and their distribution over the total scale important? Could better instructions for scoring within 10-point intervals improve scoring? Internationally, both single and dual scales for GAF are used, but what is the advantage of having separate symptom and functioning scales? Symptom (GAF-S and functioning (GAF-F scales should score different dimensions and still be correlated, but what is the best combination of definitions for GAF-S and GAF-F? For GAF with more than two scales there is limited empirical testing, but what is gained or lost by using more than two scales? Conclusions In the history of GAF, its basic properties have undergone limited changes. Problems with GAF may, in part, be due to lack of a research programme testing the effects of

  8. The gender perspective in climate change and global health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgitta Evengård

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Population health is a primary goal of sustainable development. United Nations international conferences like the Beijing Platform for Action have highlighted the key role of women in ensuring sustainable development. In the context of climate change, women are affected the most while they display knowledge and skills to orient themselves toward climate adaptation activities within their societies. Objective: To investigate how the gender perspective is addressed as an issue in research and policy-making concerning climate change and global health. Methods: A broad literature search was undertaken using the databases Pubmed and Web of Science to explore the terms ‘climate change,’ ‘health,’ ‘gender,’ and ‘policy.’ Climate change and health-related policy documents of the World Health Organization (WHO and National Communications and National Adaptation Programs of Action reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of selected countries were studied. Assessment guidelines to review these reports were developed from this study's viewpoint. Results: The database search results showed almost no articles when the four terms were searched together. The WHO documents lacked a gender perspective in their approach and future recommendations on climate policies. The reviewed UN reports were also neutral to gender perspective except one of the studied documents. Conclusion: Despite recognizing the differential effects of climate change on health of women and men as a consequence of complex social contexts and adaptive capacities, the study finds gender to be an underrepresented or non-existing variable both in research and studied policy documents in the field of climate change and health.

  9. Defining functional biomes and monitoring their change globally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Steven I; Buitenwerf, Robert; Moncrieff, Glenn R

    2016-11-01

    Biomes are important constructs for organizing understanding of how the worlds' major terrestrial ecosystems differ from one another and for monitoring change in these ecosystems. Yet existing biome classification schemes have been criticized for being overly subjective and for explicitly or implicitly invoking climate. We propose a new biome map and classification scheme that uses information on (i) an index of vegetation productivity, (ii) whether the minimum of vegetation activity is in the driest or coldest part of the year, and (iii) vegetation height. Although biomes produced on the basis of this classification show a strong spatial coherence, they show little congruence with existing biome classification schemes. Our biome map provides an alternative classification scheme for comparing the biogeochemical rates of terrestrial ecosystems. We use this new biome classification scheme to analyse the patterns of biome change observed over recent decades. Overall, 13% to 14% of analysed pixels shifted in biome state over the 30-year study period. A wide range of biome transitions were observed. For example, biomes with tall vegetation and minimum vegetation activity in the cold season shifted to higher productivity biome states. Biomes with short vegetation and low seasonality shifted to seasonally moisture-limited biome states. Our findings and method provide a new source of data for rigorously monitoring global vegetation change, analysing drivers of vegetation change and for benchmarking models of terrestrial ecosystem function. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Global perceived stress predicts cognitive change among older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, Elizabeth; Sliwinski, Martin J; Scott, Stacey B; Hofer, Scott

    2015-09-01

    Research on stress and cognitive aging has primarily focused on examining the effects of biological and psychosocial indicators of stress, with little attention provided to examining the association between perceived stress and cognitive aging. We examined the longitudinal association between global perceived stress (GPS) and cognitive change among 116 older adults (M(age) = 80, SD = 6.40, range = 67-96) in a repeated measurement burst design. Bursts of 6 daily cognitive assessments were repeated every 6 months over a 2-year period, with self-reported GPS assessed at the start of every burst. Using a double-exponential learning model, 2 parameters were estimated: (a) asymptotic level (peak performance), and (b) asymptotic change (the rate at which peak performance changed across bursts). We hypothesized that greater GPS would predict slowed performance in tasks of attention, working memory, and speed of processing and that increases in GPS across time would predict cognitive slowing. Results from latent growth curve analyses were consistent with our first hypothesis and indicated that level of GPS predicted cognitive slowing across time. Changes in GPS did not predict cognitive slowing. This study extends previous findings by demonstrating a prospective association between level of GPS and cognitive slowing across a 2-year period, highlighting the role of psychological stress as a risk factor for poor cognitive function.

  11. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  12. Flavor changing neutral currents in a realistic composite technicolor model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carone, Christopher D.; Hamilton, Rowan T.

    1993-03-01

    We consider the phenomenology of a composite technicolor model proposed recently by Georgi. Composite technicolor interactions produce four-quark operators in the low energy theory that contribute to flavor changing neutral current processes. While we expect operators of this type to be induced at the compositeness scale by the flavor-symmetry breaking effects of the preon mass matrices, the Georgi model also includes operators from higher scales that are not GIM-suppressed. Since these operators are potentially large, we study their impact on flavor changing neutral currents and CP violation in the neutral K, B, and D meson systems. Notably, we find that this model gives rise to a typical value for {ɛ‧}/{ɛ} that is much smaller than most standard model estimates.

  13. Global Change Drought in the Southwest: New Management Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udall, B. H.; Overpeck, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Long held worries about future runoff declines in the Colorado River under climate change are proving to be more than just theory. Fifteen years into this century flows of the Colorado are already declining due mostly to unprecedented temperatures, and as warming proceeds, declines in river flow will grow larger. Temperature-driven droughts, some lasting decades and much more severe than the current 15-year drought, will also become more commonplace if climate change continues unabated. Current projections of future water availability almost universally understate the risk of large Colorado flow reductions under business-as-usual warming. Betting on highly uncertain projections of increased precipitation to overcome even part of the flow reductions due to virtually certain warming is a poor risk management strategy. Many of the existing water policy arrangements in the Colorado River Basin will fail in the 21st century unless innovative new solutions are developed under leadership from the federal government and its basin state partners.

  14. Learning English as an L2 in the Global Context: Changing English, Changing Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Chit Cheung Matthew

    2013-01-01

    As the English language has become a global lingua franca today, it is not surprising that changes in attitudes and perceptions towards learning English in the international context have taken place at the same time. In this paper, I critically examine the notion of "integrative motivation" in the literature of second language (L2)…

  15. Learning English as an L2 in the Global Context: Changing English, Changing Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Chit Cheung Matthew

    2013-01-01

    As the English language has become a global lingua franca today, it is not surprising that changes in attitudes and perceptions towards learning English in the international context have taken place at the same time. In this paper, I critically examine the notion of "integrative motivation" in the literature of second language (L2)…

  16. Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; hide

    2017-01-01

    Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14 percent of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM (sub 2.5), we estimate 55,600 (34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16 percent the global decrease in PM (sub 2.5)-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

  17. The uncertainties and causes of the recent changes in global evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Bo; Dai, Aiguo

    2016-09-01

    Recent studies have shown considerable changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) since the early 1980s, but the causes of these changes remain unclear. In this study, the relative contributions of external climate forcing and internal climate variability to the recent ET changes are examined. Three datasets of global terrestrial ET and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean ET are analyzed, respectively, to quantify the apparent and externally-forced ET changes, while the unforced ET variations are estimated as the apparent ET minus the forced component. Large discrepancies of the ET estimates, in terms of their trend, variability, and temperature- and precipitation-dependence, are found among the three datasets. Results show that the forced global-mean ET exhibits an upward trend of 0.08 mm day-1 century-1 from 1982 to 2010. The forced ET also contains considerable multi-year to decadal variations during the latter half of the 20th century that are caused by volcanic aerosols. The spatial patterns and interannual variations of the forced ET are more closely linked to precipitation than temperature. After removing the forced component, the global-mean ET shows a trend ranging from -0.07 to 0.06 mm day-1 century-1 during 1982-2010 with varying spatial patterns among the three datasets. Furthermore, linkages between the unforced ET and internal climate modes are examined. Variations in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are found to be consistently correlated with ET over many land areas among the ET datasets. The results suggest that there are large uncertainties in our current estimates of global terrestrial ET for the recent decades, and the greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol external forcings account for a large part of the apparent trend in global-mean terrestrial ET since 1982, but Pacific SST and other internal climate variability dominate recent ET variations and changes over most regions.

  18. Microbial mediation of biogeochemical cycles revealed by simulation of global changes with soil transplant and cropping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Mengxin; Xue, Kai; Wang, Feng; Liu, Shanshan; Bai, Shijie; Sun, Bo; Zhou, Jizhong; Yang, Yunfeng

    2014-10-01

    Despite microbes' key roles in driving biogeochemical cycles, the mechanism of microbe-mediated feedbacks to global changes remains elusive. Recently, soil transplant has been successfully established as a proxy to simulate climate changes, as the current trend of global warming coherently causes range shifts toward higher latitudes. Four years after southward soil transplant over large transects in China, we found that microbial functional diversity was increased, in addition to concurrent changes in microbial biomass, soil nutrient content and functional processes involved in the nitrogen cycle. However, soil transplant effects could be overridden by maize cropping, which was attributed to a negative interaction. Strikingly, abundances of nitrogen and carbon cycle genes were increased by these field experiments simulating global change, coinciding with higher soil nitrification potential and carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux. Further investigation revealed strong correlations between carbon cycle genes and CO2 efflux in bare soil but not cropped soil, and between nitrogen cycle genes and nitrification. These findings suggest that changes of soil carbon and nitrogen cycles by soil transplant and cropping were predictable by measuring microbial functional potentials, contributing to a better mechanistic understanding of these soil functional processes and suggesting a potential to incorporate microbial communities in greenhouse gas emission modeling.

  19. Global Potential for Hydro-generated Electricity and Climate Change Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leon, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.; Li, H. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Hydropower is a dominant renewable energy source at the global level, accounting for more than 15% of the world's total power supply. It is also very vulnerable to climate change. Improved understanding of climate change impact on hydropower can help develop adaptation measures to increase the resilience of energy system. In this study, we developed a comprehensive estimate of global hydropower potential using runoff and stream flow data derived from a global hydrologic model with a river routing sub-model, along with turbine technology performance, cost assumptions, and environmental consideration (Figure 1). We find that hydropower has the potential to supply a significant portion of the world energy needs, although this potential varies substantially by regions. Resources in a number of countries exceed by multiple folds the total current demand for electricity, e.g., Russia and Indonesia. A sensitivity analysis indicates that hydropower potential can be highly sensitive to a number of parameters including designed flow for capacity, cost and financing, turbine efficiency, and stream flow. The climate change impact on hydropower potential was evaluated by using runoff outputs from 4 climate models (HadCM3, PCM, CGCM2, and CSIRO2). It was found that the climate change on hydropower shows large variation not only by regions, but also climate models, and this demonstrates the importance of incorporating climate change into infrastructure-planning at the regional level though the existing uncertainties.

  20. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  1. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-01-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

  2. Ways to Include Global Climate Change in Courses for Prospective Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zee, Emily; Grobart, Emma; Roberts-Harris, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    What responsibility do science teacher educators have for engaging students in learning about global climate change in courses? How can the topic of global climate change be added to an already packed course curriculum? The authors have begun assembling instructional resources and learning ways others have incorporated global climate change in…

  3. The responses of tropical forest species to global climate change: acclimate, adapt, migrate, or go extinct?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Machovina

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In the face of ongoing and future climate change, species must acclimate, adapt or shift their geographic distributions (i.e., "migrate" in order to avoid habitat loss and eventual extinction. Perhaps nowhere are the challenges posed by climate change more poignant and daunting than in tropical forests, which harbor the majority of Earth’s species and are facing especially rapid rates of climate change relative to current spatial or temporal variability. Due to the rapid changes in climate predicted for the tropics, coupled with the apparently low capacities of tropical tree species to either acclimate or adapt to sustained changes in environmental conditions, it is believed that the greatest hope for avoiding the loss of biodiversity in tropical forest is species migrations. This is supported by the fact that topical forests responded to historic changes in climate (e.g., post glacial warming through distributional shifts. However, a great deal of uncertainty remains as to if tropical plant and tree species can migrate, and if so, if they can migrate at the rates required to keep pace with accelerating changes in multiple climatic factors in conjunction with ongoing deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances. In order to resolve this uncertainty, as will be required to predict, and eventually mitigate, the impacts of global climate change on tropical and global biodiversity, more basic data is required on the distributions and ecologies of tens of thousands of plants species in combination with more directed studies and large-scale experimental manipulations.

  4. Interfacing remote sensing and geographic information systems for global environmental change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae K.; Randolph, J. C.; Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Helfert, Michael R.

    1993-01-01

    Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.

  5. Interfacing remote sensing and geographic information systems for global environmental change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae K.; Randolph, J. C.; Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Helfert, Michael R.

    1993-01-01

    Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.

  6. From climate to global change: Following the footprint of Prof. Duzheng YE's research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Congbin

    2017-10-01

    To commemorate 100 years since the birth of Professor Duzheng YE, this paper reviews the contribution of Ye and his research team to the development from climate to global change science in the past 30 or so years, including: (1) the role of climate change in global change; (2) the critical time scales and predictability of global change; (3) the sensitive regions of global change—transitional zones of climate and ecosystems; and (4) orderly human activities and adaptation to global change, with a focus on the development of a proactive strategy for adaptation to such change.

  7. Global compilation of coastline change at river mouths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aadland, Tore; Helland-Hansen, William

    2016-04-01

    We are using Google Earth Engine to analyze Landsat images to create a global compilation of coastline change at river mouths in order to develop scaling relationships between catchment properties and shoreline behaviour. Our main motivation for doing this is to better understand the rates at which shallowing upward successions of deltaic successions are formed. We are also interested in getting an insight into the impact of climate change and human activity on modern shorelines. Google Earth Engine is a platform that offers simple selection of relevant data from an extensive catalog of geospatial data and the tools to analyse it efficiently. We have used Google Earth Engine to select and analyze temporally and geographically bounded sets of Landsat images covering modern deltas included in the Milliman and Farnsworth 2010 database. The part of the shoreline sampled for each delta has been manually defined. The areas depicted in these image sets have been classified as land or water by thresholding a calibrated Modified Normalized Water Index. By representing land and water as 1.0 and 0 respectively and averaging image sets of sufficient size we have generated rasters quantifying the probability of an area being classified as land. The calculated probabilities reflect variation in the shoreline position; in particular, it minimizes the impact of short term-variations produced by tides. The net change in the land area of deltas can be estimated by comparing how the probability changes between image sets spanning different time periods. We have estimated the land area change that occurred from 2000 to 2014 at more than 130 deltas with catchment areas ranging from 470 to 6300000 sqkm. Log-log plots of the land area change of these deltas against their respective catchment properties in the Milliman and Farnsworth 2010 database indicate that the rate of land area change correlates with catchment size and discharge. Useful interpretation of the data requires that we

  8. Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taucher, J.; Oschlies, A.

    2011-01-01

    A global Earth System model is employed to investigate the role of direct temperature effects in the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. While model configurations with and without consideration of explicit temperature effects can reproduce observed current biogeochemical tracer distributions and estimated carbon export about equally well, carbon flow through the model ecosystem reveals strong temperature sensitivities. Depending on whether biological processes are assumed temperature sensitive or not, simulated marine net primary production (NPP) increases or decreases under projected climate change driven by a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario for the 21st century. This suggests that indirect temperature effects such as changes in the supply of nutrients and light are not the only relevant factors to be considered when modeling the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of direct temperature effects on marine ecosystems is required before even the direction of change in NPP can be reliably predicted.

  9. Climate change and the potential global distribution of Aedes aegypti: spatial modelling using GIS and CLIMEX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

    2014-05-01

    We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on the dengue vector Aedes aegypti abundance using CLIMEX, a powerful tool for exploring the relationship between the fundamental and realised niche of any species. After calibrating the model using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records, we estimated potential distributions of the mosquito under current and future potential scenarios. The impact of climate change on its potential distribution was assessed with two global climate models, the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and the MIROC-H, run with two potential, future emission scenarios (A1B and A2) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compared today's climate situation with two arbitrarily chosen future time points (2030 and 2070) to see the impact on the worldwide distribution of A. aegypti . The model for the current global climate indicated favourable areas for the mosquito within its known distribution in tropical and subtropical areas. However, even if much of the tropics and subtropics will continue to be suitable, the climatically favourable areas for A. aegypti globally are projected to contract under the future scenarios produced by these models, while currently unfavourable areas, such as inland Australia, the Arabian Peninsula, southern Iran and some parts of North America may become climatically favourable for this mosquito species. The climate models for the Aedes dengue vector presented here should be useful for management purposes as they can be adapted for decision/making regarding allocation of resources for dengue risk toward areas where risk infection remains and away from areas where climatic suitability is likely to decrease in the future.

  10. Global, Energy-Dependent Ring Current Response During Two Large Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, J.; Angelopoulos, V.; Burch, J. L.; De Pascuale, S.; Fuselier, S. A.; Genestreti, K. J.; Kurth, W. S.; LLera, K.; McComas, D. J.; Reeves, G. D.; Spence, H. E.; Valek, P. W.

    2015-12-01

    Two recent large (~200 nT) geomagnetic storms occurred during 17--18 March 2015 and 22--23 June 2015. The global, energy-dependent ring current response to these two extreme events is investigated using both global imaging and multi-point in situ observations. Energetic neutral atom (ENA) imaging by the Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral-atom Spectrometers (TWINS) mission provides a global view of ring current ions. Local measurements are provided by two multi-spacecraft missions. The two Van Allen Probes measure in situ plasma (including ion composition) and fields at ring current and plasmaspheric L values. The recently launched Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) comprises four spacecraft that have just begun to measure particles (including ion composition) and fields at outer magnetospheric L-values. We analyze the timing and energetics of the stormtime evolution of ring current ions, both trapped and precipitating, using TWINS ENA images and in situ data by the Van Allen Probes and MMS.

  11. European network infrastructures of observatories for terrestrial Global Change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vereecken, H.; Bogena, H.; Lehning, M.

    2009-04-01

    The earth's climate is significantly changing (e.g. IPCC, 2007) and thus directly affecting the terrestrial systems. The number and intensity hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, are continually increasing, resulting in major economical and social impacts. Furthermore, the land cover in Europe has been modified fundamentally by conversions for agriculture, forest and for other purposes such as industrialisation and urbanisation. Additionally, water resources are more than ever used for human development, especially as a key resource for agricultural and industrial activities. As a special case, the mountains of the world are of significant importance in terms of water resources supply, biodiversity, economy, agriculture, traffic and recreation but particularly vulnerable to environmental change. The Alps are unique because of the pronounced small scale variability they contain, the high population density they support and their central position in Europe. The Alps build a single coherent physical and natural environment, artificially cut by national borders. The scientific community and governmental bodies have responded to these environmental changes by performing dedicated experiments and by establishing environmental research networks to monitor, analyse and predict the impact of Global Change on different terrestrial systems of the Earths' environment. Several European network infrastructures for terrestrial Global Change research are presently immerging or upgrading, such as ICOS, ANAEE, LifeWatch or LTER-Europe. However, the strongest existing networks are still operating on a regional or national level and the historical growth of such networks resulted in a very heterogeneous landscape of observation networks. We propose therefore the establishment of two complementary networks: The NetwOrk of Hydrological observAtories, NOHA. NOHA aims to promote the sustainable management of water resources in Europe, to support the prediction of

  12. Global Connections to Global Partnerships: Navigating the Changing Landscape of Internationalism and Cross-Border Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olcott, Don, Jr.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide continuing higher education leaders with a comprehensive overview of the major considerations for doing business in the global market. Included is an analysis of the driving forces in global higher education and current trends in cross-border programs and a brief review of activities that may be part of a…

  13. Earth Under Siege: From Air Pollution to Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friend, James P.

    Lucky indeed are the students taking Richard Turco's course and using his book, Earth Under Siege: From Air Pollution to Global Change. They have an enthusiastic and communicative lecturer who is a true authority in his field and who passionately devotes his efforts to enlightening his students.The passion is evident in the text, but it never interferes with the rigor of the material presented.Earth Under Siege is based on lectures given by Turco in a popular course for undergraduate students of all stripes at the University of California at Los Angeles. Student knowledge that is provided by a high school college preparatory curriculum is assumed.The style is engagingly informal and the book is a delight to read. Sprinkled throughout are pithy comments, many humorous, that are designed to heighten student understanding and interest. They also reveal Turco's personal opinions about issues of air pollution. However, despite the title, it is clear that Turco is not an environmental zealot. He is scientifically accurate and thorough in presenting vital information about air pollution on all scales, local through global. He is also clear-eyed and nondoctrinaire in presenting social, political, and economic aspects of air pollution. His devotion is to the education of individuals who can become informed members of an environmentally aware society.

  14. Food security in the context of global environmental change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.

    1993-11-01

    United Nations predictions and other sources indicate that world population could grow to 8.5 billion by 2025 (Keyfitz 1989) and 11 billion by the end of the coming century (UNFPA 1990). As new information becomes available on the effectiveness of population control programs, the rise of virulent diseases and other factors, these numbers change--sometimes smaller, sometimes larger still. Whatever the numbers actually turn out to be, global agricultural production will have to increase several-fold from present levels to feed and clothe the growing population and to improve worldwide standards of nutrition. The capacity of global agriculture to ensure food security through increased and sustained agricultural production depends on our ability to manage, conserve and in some cases increase the resource base available to the industry of agriculture. The resources that underpin agriculture are land, water and genetic diversity. The first two of these are the subject of this paper. Genetic diversity is the subject of another paper in this volume.

  15. Time for a reality check on global climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Keefe, W.F.

    1995-12-31

    Right now no one knows enough about global warming to advocate with certainty the kinds of actions that could jeopardize our economic well being -- and the economic aspirations of developing countries. That doesn`t mean no action, which is usually described perjoratively and erroneously as business as usual. It does mean actions must be based on facts, not misperceptions and myths. It does mean a mindset that reexamines, rethinks and changes course based on new knowledge. In short, I am advocating a reality check on the process based on the political, scientific and economic realities. Each of these realities has an important role in determining how we respond to the global warming threat. Our goal should be to identify actions that do the least damage to material well-being and that preserve the path to a better way of life, especially for the developing nations. What we have instead is a process driven by political gamesmanship that will devolve into beggar the neighbor policies reminiscent of 18th century mercantilism.

  16. B\\"o\\"ogg Bang drives global climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Brennwald, M S; Kipfer, R

    2011-01-01

    The B\\"o\\"ogg is a large model of a snowman, constructed of inflammable materials and filled with explosives. During the traditional festival of Sechsel\\"auten, which takes place each spring in Zurich, Switzerland, the B\\"o\\"ogg is placed atop a wooden pyre, which is set alight. According to popular legend, the time that elapses until the B\\"o\\"ogg's head explodes (the "head-bang" time) is said to give a rough forecast of local weather conditions prevailing during the following summer. However, recent research has questioned the validity of this prediction. To study the B\\"o\\"ogg's predictive powers, we analyzed the B\\"o\\"ogg head-bang time record from 1965-2010 within the context of global climate change. Our analysis shows that the B\\"o\\"ogg head-bang time is a good predictor not of short-term local weather, as might be expected from the legend, but of the behavior of the entire global climate system.

  17. Global change accelerates carbon assimilation by a wetland ecosystem engineer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplan, Joshua S.; Hager, Rachel N.; Megonigal, J. Patrick; Mozdzer, Thomas J.

    2015-11-01

    The primary productivity of coastal wetlands is changing dramatically in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, nitrogen (N) enrichment, and invasions by novel species, potentially altering their ecosystem services and resilience to sea level rise. In order to determine how these interacting global change factors will affect coastal wetland productivity, we quantified growing-season carbon assimilation (≈gross primary productivity, or GPP) and carbon retained in living plant biomass (≈net primary productivity, or NPP) of North American mid-Atlantic saltmarshes invaded by Phragmites australis (common reed) under four treatment conditions: two levels of CO2 (ambient and +300 ppm) crossed with two levels of N (0 and 25 g N added m-2 yr-1). For GPP, we combined descriptions of canopy structure and leaf-level photosynthesis in a simulation model, using empirical data from an open-top chamber field study. Under ambient CO2 and low N loading (i.e., the Control), we determined GPP to be 1.66 ± 0.05 kg C m-2 yr-1 at a typical Phragmites stand density. Individually, elevated CO2 and N enrichment increased GPP by 44 and 60%, respectively. Changes under N enrichment came largely from stimulation to carbon assimilation early and late in the growing season, while changes from CO2 came from stimulation during the early and mid-growing season. In combination, elevated CO2 and N enrichment increased GPP by 95% over the Control, yielding 3.24 ± 0.08 kg C m-2 yr-1. We used biomass data to calculate NPP, and determined that it represented 44%-60% of GPP, with global change conditions decreasing carbon retention compared to the Control. Our results indicate that Phragmites invasions in eutrophied saltmarshes are driven, in part, by extended phenology yielding 3.1× greater NPP than native marsh. Further, we can expect elevated CO2 to amplify Phragmites productivity throughout the growing season, with potential implications including accelerated spread

  18. Stability and change in political conservatism following the global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milojev, Petar; Greaves, Lara; Osborne, Danny; Sibley, Chris G

    2015-01-01

    The current study analyzes data from a national probability panel sample of New Zealanders (N = 5,091) to examine stability and change in political orientation over four consecutive yearly assessments (2009-2012) following the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. Bayesian Latent Growth Modeling identified systematic variation in the growth trajectory of conservatism that was predicted by age and socio-economic status. Younger people (ages 25-45) did not change in their political orientation. Older people, however, became more conservative over time. Likewise, people with lower socio-economic status showed a marked increase in political conservatism. In addition, tests of rank-order stability showed that age had a cubic relationship with the stability of political orientation over our four annual assessments. Our findings provide strong support for System Justification Theory by showing that increases in conservatism in the wake of the recent global financial crisis occurred primarily among the poorest and most disadvantaged.

  19. Water governance, resilience and global environmental change - a reassessment of integrated water resources management (IWRM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaz, V

    2007-01-01

    Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) is gaining increased acceptance among water policy makers and researchers as a way to create more effective governance institutions, leading towards integrated water development solutions for poverty alleviation, while addressing social, economic and environmental aspects of water challenges. However, global environmental change poses fundamental challenges to water policy makers as it implies vast scientific, and hence, policy uncertainty; its implications for international water governance initiatives remain unspecified, effectively hindering dialogue on how current IWRM initiatives should be modified. This paper addresses the lag between our growing understanding of resilient interconnected freshwater resources (and their governance) and the reforms being promoted by policy makers. In particular, there is a need to rethink some of IWRM's key components to better tackle the challenges posed by the complex behaviour of interconnected social-ecological systems and global environmental change.

  20. Global climate change: Causes, phenomena, consequences; Globale Klimaaenderungen - Ursachen, Phaenomene und Folgen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bakan, S. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    2005-07-01

    The contribution presents an outline of current knowledge on the climate system and its probable development on the basis of the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Illustrations are derived from this report and were also provided by the MPI of Meteorology and the German Climate Research Center (DKRZ), Hamburg. Further information can be derived from their internet pages, (www.mpimet.mpg.de, www.dkrz.de, www.ipcc.ch). (orig.)