Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

Energy policy, the energy price fallacy and the role of nuclear energy in the UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brookes, L.G.

1978-01-01

The widely held belief that the world energy problem will be solved by rising prices - closing the energy gap by reducing demand and bringing in new, large, previously overcostly energy sources is rejected by the author who feels that high prices are the problem and not the solution. It is argued that supply and demand will be brought into balance at some price, and the objective of energy policy should be to make it as low as possible, by concentrating on the exploitation of large, low-cost energy sources. The role of nuclear energy in this discussion is considered with respect to three specific points: the currently identified reserves of low-cost uranium, if used in fast reactors, represent an energy source greater than all other energy sources put together; nuclear power is the cheapest, safest and cleanest way of producing electricity; and electricity production accounts for a very large part of total primary energy consumption. (U.K.)

Energy price uncertainty, energy intensity and firm investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, Kyung Hwan; Ratti, Ronald A.

2011-01-01

This paper examines the effect of energy price uncertainty on firm-level investment. An error correction model of capital stock adjustment is estimated with data on U.S. manufacturing firms. Higher energy price uncertainty is found to make firms more cautious by reducing the responsiveness of investment to sales growth. The result is robust to consideration of energy intensity by industry. The effect is greater for high growth firms. It must be emphasized that the direct effect of uncertainty is not estimated. Conditional variance of energy price is obtained from a GARCH model. Findings suggest that stability in energy prices would be conducive to greater stability in firm-level investment. (author)

Energy price disparity and public welfare

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Templet, P.H.

2001-01-01

The differences in the price of energy to economic sectors are linked to a number of system parameters and to public welfare. There are large disparities in energy prices within states when comparing residential and industrial prices although neoclassical economics predicts one price in markets. The large disparities between the two sectors across states negatively affects the efficiency of resource allocation, creates subsidies for those getting the cheap energy and results in unequal access to energy. These in turn lead to inefficient partitioning of energy between products and waste, higher pollution, leakage of wealth and poorer energy use efficiency, i.e. high energy intensity. States with large energy price disparities between sectors have statistically higher poverty, lower incomes, more pollution and use more energy but with less efficiency. Higher energy price disparities also result in higher throughput per unit of output thus reducing the chances for sustainability and lower public welfare. 31 refs

The impacts of energy prices on energy intensity: Evidence from China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hang, Leiming; Tu, Meizeng

2007-01-01

In this paper, we present a review of the deregulation of energy prices in China between 1985 and 2004 and assess the impacts of changes in energy prices on aggregate energy intensity and coal/oil/electricity intensity. We used time series data to provide estimates of energy price elasticities. Empirical results showed that: (1) The own-price elasticities of coal, oil, and aggregate energy were negative in periods both before and after 1995, implying that higher relative prices of different energy types lead to the decrease in coal, oil, and aggregate energy intensities. However, the positive own-price elasticity of electricity after 1995 probably indicates that the price effect was weaker than other factors such as income effect and population effect. (2) The impacts of energy prices were asymmetric over time. (3) Sectoral adjustment also drove the decrease in aggregate energy intensity. Although raising energy prices to boost efficiency of energy use seems to be an effective policy tool, other policy implications concerned with energy prices, such as energy supply security and fuel poverty, must also be considered

Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Hikspoors, Samuel

The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.

Energy at what price? Energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Favennec, J.P.; Amic, E.; Darmois, G.

2006-01-01

In 2005, the whole world had to stand a real energy shock due to the rise of oil, gas and electricity prices. The perspective of a possible shortage, even at the prospect of several decades, has led to a deep change of the world energy market. In this context, this book supplies a clear and didactical presentation of the mechanisms of petroleum, gas and electricity markets, with their advantages and limitations. At the time of a globalization of economy, the book analyzes the consequences of markets deregulation on the energy prices and tries to answer several main questions: why such a price volatility? Who will take the risk of investing now? Will the energy actors of the present day concentration be in a dominating position? Content: 1 - energy, markets and energy markets; 2 - crude oil and petroleum product markets; 3 - gas markets; 4 - electric power markets; 5 - perspectives. Glossary. Index. (J.S.)

Energy pricing under uncertain supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serra, P.J.

1997-01-01

This paper introduces a new pricing system - based on the Chilean tariff regulations - to deal with an uncertain energy supply. It consists of a basic rate for each unit actually consumed and a compensation that the utilities pay their customers for each unit of energy that they voluntarily reduce below their normal consumption during an energy shortage. Within the framework of a model that portrays the stylized facts of the Chilean electric system, and assumes risk-neutral agents, this paper shows the equivalency of the new pricing system with both contingent pricing and priority pricing. (Author)

Energy efficieny policy and carbon pricing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ryan, Lisa; Moarif, Sara; Levina, Ellina; Baron, Richard

2011-08-15

The main message of this paper is that while carbon pricing is a prerequisite for least-cost carbon mitigation strategies, carbon pricing is not enough to overcome all the barriers to cost-effective energy efficiency actions. Energy efficiency policy should be designed carefully for each sector to ensure optimal outcomes for a combination of economic, social and climate change goals. This paper aims to examine the justification for specific energy efficiency policies in economies with carbon pricing in place. The paper begins with an inventory of existing market failures that attempt to explain the limited uptake of energy efficiency. These market failures are investigated to see which can be overcome by carbon pricing in two subsectors -- electricity use in residential appliances and heating energy use in buildings. This analysis finds that carbon pricing addresses energy efficiency market failures such as externalities and imperfect energy markets. However, several market and behavioural failures in the two subsectors are identified that appear not to be addressed by carbon pricing. These include: imperfect information; principal-agent problems; and behavioural failures. In this analysis, the policies that address these market failures are identified as complementary to carbon pricing and their level of interaction with carbon pricing policies is relatively positive. These policies should be implemented when they can improve energy efficiency effectively and efficiently (and achieve other national goals such as improving socio-economic efficiency).

Energy Efficiency Policy and Carbon Pricing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

The main message of this paper is that while carbon pricing is a prerequisite for least-cost carbon mitigation strategies, carbon pricing is not enough to overcome all the barriers to cost-effective energy efficiency actions. Energy efficiency policy should be designed carefully for each sector to ensure optimal outcomes for a combination of economic, social and climate change goals. This paper aims to examine the justification for specific energy efficiency policies in economies with carbon pricing in place. The paper begins with an inventory of existing market failures that attempt to explain the limited uptake of energy efficiency. These market failures are investigated to see which can be overcome by carbon pricing in two subsectors -- electricity use in residential appliances and heating energy use in buildings. This analysis finds that carbon pricing addresses energy efficiency market failures such as externalities and imperfect energy markets. However, several market and behavioural failures in the two subsectors are identified that appear not to be addressed by carbon pricing. These include: imperfect information; principal-agent problems; and behavioural failures. In this analysis, the policies that address these market failures are identified as complementary to carbon pricing and their level of interaction with carbon pricing policies is relatively positive. These policies should be implemented when they can improve energy efficiency effectively and efficiently (and achieve other national goals such as improving socio-economic efficiency).

State energy-price system: 1981 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fang, J.M.; Imhoff, K.L.; Hood, L.J.

1983-08-01

This report updates the State Energy Price Data System (STEPS) to include state-level energy prices by fuel and by end-use sectors for 1981. Both physical unit prices and Btu prices are presented. Basic documentation of the data base remains generally the same as in the original report: State Energy Price System; Volume 1: Overview and Technical Documentation (DOE/NBB-0029 Volume 1 of 2, November 1982). The present report documents only the changes in procedures necessitated by the update to 1981 and the corrections to the basic documentation.

The effects of the energy price reform on households consumption in Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moshiri, Saeed

2015-01-01

The substantial subsidizing of energy prices over the years has led to high energy consumption, inefficiencies, fiscal pressures, and environmental problems in Iran. To address the increasing socio-economic problems associated with the energy subsidies, the government embarked on an aggressive energy price reform through which energy subsidies were removed and cash handouts were given to all households in 2010. In this paper, I analyze the effectiveness of the energy price reform in Iran by estimating energy demand elasticities for households in different income groups. I apply a two-stage consumer optimization model and estimate the system of energy expenditures shares using the household budget survey data for the period 2001–2008. The results show that the overall price elasticities of demand are small, but income elasticities are close to one. The results also indicate heterogeneous responses to energy price and income changes in different income groups. Specifically, the urban households show stronger response to price changes, but rural households, particularly mid-income households, to income changes. These findings suggest that the current policy of price increases would not solely be able to reduce energy consumption and, therefore, it should be geared towards increasing energy efficiency through a series of price and non-price measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of the recent energy price reform in Iran is analyzed. • Energy demand elasticities for households in different income groups are estimated. • A two-stage optimization model was applied to estimate the system of equations using micro-data for 2001–2008. • The price elasticities are small and income elasticities rather large, but responses are heterogeneous. • A price and non-price reform policy package is needed for different income groups and regions

Energy trading and pricing in microgrids with uncertain energy supply

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Kai; Hu, Shubing; Yang, Jie

2017-01-01

This paper studies an energy trading and pricing problem for microgrids with uncertain energy supply. The energy provider with the renewable energy (RE) generation (wind power) determines the energy purchase from the electricity markets and the pricing strategy for consumers to maximize its profi....... In particular, the uncertainty of the energy supply from the energy provider is considered. Simulation results show that the energy provider can obtain more profit using the proposed decision-making scheme.......This paper studies an energy trading and pricing problem for microgrids with uncertain energy supply. The energy provider with the renewable energy (RE) generation (wind power) determines the energy purchase from the electricity markets and the pricing strategy for consumers to maximize its profit...

International Energy Prices(Exchange Rate and PPP)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jo, Sung Han; Yoo, Dong Heon [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

2000-11-01

Energy is to be specially important to the Korean economy. In the past the major purpose of Korea's energy policies was to ensure that the energy was supplied at the low cost to encourage and sustain economic development and growth. Therefore, energy prices are distorted by government intervention. And this was the cause of inefficiency in usage of energy. In order to improve the energy efficiency and reduce the environmental impact of energy consumption, new energy pricing should be needed to the energy industry and the Korean economy. It is necessary to compare the domestic energy prices with other countries to improve the energy pricing system including tax, the relative structure of energy price, etc. In order to compare the domestic energy prices to those of other countries, the exchange rate, purchasing power parity and Big Mac index are used for calculation of common currency. We select 12 countries, which are Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan, Mexico and England. The oil products(gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil and light fuel oil), natural gas and electricity are selected to compare the price. (author). 12 refs., 13 tabs.

Market-driven energy pricing necessary to ensure China's power supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Qiang; Qiu, Huan-Ning; Kuang, Yaoqiu

2009-01-01

China's rapid economic growth has strained its power supply, as manifested for instance by the widespread 2008 power shortage. The cause for this shortage is thought to be the current Chinese energy pricing system, which is mainly government rather than market controlled. Government-regulated price-caps for coal have seriously affected coal supply. At the same time price-caps for electricity supply have caused suspension of power plant operation. As a result, the average operating time of coal-fired power plants declined 50 h annually across the nation in the first half of 2008 compared to the previous year, despite clear power shortages. Here, it will be suggested that energy pricing, set by supply and demand may effectively discourage excessive growth in heavy industry, substantially encourage energy conservation and efficiency, and curb the rapid electricity demand in China. It will be argued that a market-oriented electricity pricing mechanism is required for China to secure its future power supply. (author)

Can Deployment of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency PutDownward Pressure on Natural Gas Prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2005-06-01

High and volatile natural gas prices have increasingly led to calls for investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency. One line of argument is that deployment of these resources may lead to reductions in the demand for and price of natural gas. Many recent U.S.-based modeling studies have demonstrated that this effect could provide significant consumer savings. In this article we evaluate these studies, and benchmark their findings against economic theory, other modeling results, and a limited empirical literature. We find that many uncertainties remain regarding the absolute magnitude of this effect, and that the reduction in natural gas prices may not represent an increase in aggregate economic wealth. Nonetheless, we conclude that many of the studies of the impact of renewable energy and energy efficiency on natural gas prices appear to have represented this effect within reason, given current knowledge. These studies specifically suggest that a 1% reduction in U.S. natural gas demand could lead to long-term average wellhead price reductions of 0.8% to 2%, and that each megawatt-hour of renewable energy and energy efficiency may benefit natural gas consumers to the tune of at least $7.5 to $20.

The impact of energy prices on industrial energy efficiency and productivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyd, G.A.

1993-01-01

Energy prices moved into the forefront of concern in the mid and late seventies when two oil price shocks drove up energy prices dramatically. The analysis of the subsequent increase in industrial energy efficiency, i.e., decline in energy use per unit of industrial output, has filled volumes of government and private studies. Despite the volumes of analysis, there remains no consensus on the magnitude of the effect of energy prices on industrial energy efficiency or the effect of the change in energy prices on productivity. This paper examines some sources of the controversy to initiate a dialog between policy makers, analysts, and the energy consumers and producers

State energy price and expenditure report 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 States and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the United States. The estimates are provided by energy source and economic sector. This report is an update of the State Energy Price and Expenditure Report 1989 published in September 1991. Energy price and expenditure estimates are published for the years 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 through 1990. Documentation follows the tables and describes how the price estimates are developed, including sources of data, methods of estimation, and conversion factors applied

End user prices in liberalised energy markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lijesen, M.G. [Afdeling Energie en Grondstoffen, Centraal Planbureau CPB, Den Haag (Netherlands)

2002-12-01

As European energy markets move towards deregulation, energy prices shift from classic 'cost plus' prices towards market prices. We develop a model for the retail and wholesale energy markets in Europe, based on Bertrand competition in a two part pricing structure with switching costs. We use the model to forecast end user electricity and natural gas prices and find that the introduction of competition in energy retail and wholesale markets will decrease standing charges, lowering total costs for energy users. A larger number of entrants, a cost advantage for one of the suppliers, or lower switching costs reduces standing charges further.

Energy prices and the promotion of energy conservation. A background study for energy conservation programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The prices of fuels in the international markets affect the development of consumer prices of energy in Finland. In the near future no factors can be foreseen, which would cause major increases in the prices of oil, coal or gas. It can thus not be expected that increased fuel prices would motivate more efficient energy conservation. In international comparison, consumer prices of energy have been relatively low in Finland. This applies especially to electricity. After the removal of price controls, energy prices have been determined by the markets. The influence of the public authorities in energy pricing is put into effect through taxation. The price of energy has a fairly small effect on energy consumption in a short term, but longer term effects are more significant. Energy products are faxed in all western countries. (orig.)

State energy price and expenditure report 1994

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-06-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 States and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the United States. The price and expenditure estimates developed in the State Energy Price and Expenditure Data System (SEPEDS) are provided by energy source and economic sector and are published for the years 1970 through 1994. Consumption estimates used to calculate expenditures and the documentation for those estimates are taken from the State Energy Data Report 1994, Consumption Estimates (SEDR), published in October 1996. Expenditures are calculated by multiplying the price estimates by the consumption estimates, which are adjusted to remove process fuel; intermediate petroleum products; and other consumption that has no direct fuel costs, i.e., hydroelectric, geothermal, wind, solar, and photovoltaic energy sources. Documentation is included describing the development of price estimates, data sources, and calculation methods. 316 tabs.

State energy price and expenditure report 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-06-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 States and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the United States. The price and expenditure estimates developed in the State Energy Price and Expenditure Data System (SEPEDS) are provided by energy source and economic sector and are published for the years 1970 through 1994. Consumption estimates used to calculate expenditures and the documentation for those estimates are taken from the State Energy Data Report 1994, Consumption Estimates (SEDR), published in October 1996. Expenditures are calculated by multiplying the price estimates by the consumption estimates, which are adjusted to remove process fuel; intermediate petroleum products; and other consumption that has no direct fuel costs, i.e., hydroelectric, geothermal, wind, solar, and photovoltaic energy sources. Documentation is included describing the development of price estimates, data sources, and calculation methods. 316 tabs

Energy Prices and Internal Costs in Croatian Energy System Restructuring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potocnik, V. , Magdic, M.

1995-01-01

After social and political changes in 1990, energy prices in Croatia have been getting closer to the West European averages, faster than in the most European countries in transition. The energy prices for industry are almost at the West European level, while the energy prices of electricity and natural gas for households and those of the gasoline are well behind. If the population purchasing power parity (PPP) is taken into account, these relations change. While the internalization of external energy costs is under way in the developed world, it has not practically started yet in Croatia. The Croatian energy system restructuring shall require gradual adjustment of energy prices, together with multistage internalization of external energy costs. (author). 6 refs., 3 tabs., 2 figs

Energy price dispute - companies are confident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marcan, P.; Slovak, P.

2007-01-01

Energy prices stipulated for 2003 were not compliant with the valid legislation. The Constitutional Court has repeatedly confirmed this fact. The dispute between several Slovak companies and the state will address the damage caused by illegal actions taken by the public authority, including loss of profit. A group of claimants represented by the Club 500 association is claiming up to 2 bil. Sk (57.97 mil. EUR) as compensation for the mistake made by the Office for Regulation of Network Industries (URSO), including the unclear calculation of the lost profit of companies. It will be up to the courts to decide whether the price deregulation really caused damage to the companies or whether they just took advantage of the faulty legislation.The companies base their claims on a decision of the Constitutional Court. Last year the Court twice announced that the 2003 energy prices were not compliant with valid legislation. At that time, Slovakia lacked a generally binding regulation that should have been in place according to the Act on Regulation of Network Industries. Currently, the role of these missing regulations has been taken over by URSO decrees. These stipulate justified costs and adequate profit of energy suppliers. The regulator had such a decree prepared at the end of 2002, but due to material stipulations and time constraints it did not publish it. (authors)

Energy pricing and implications for the Nigerian environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iwayemi, A.

1999-01-01

Energy pricing has been shown to have direct impact on energy demand and hence on energy efficiency. Regulated pricing which is below actual production price encourages inefficient use of energy with sometimes associated environmental problems. The important consideration presently being given to development of energy in an environmentally safe and economically prosperous society implies that energy pricing an play an important role in achieving these objectives

Empirical assessment of energy-price policies: the case for cross-price elasticities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frondel, M.

2004-01-01

Evaluations of energy-price policies are necessarily based on measures of the substitution of energy and non-energy inputs. Facing a variety of substitution elasticities, the central question arises which measure would be appropriate. Apparently, for a long time, this question has not been at issue: Allen's elasticities of substitution (AES) have been the most-used measures in applied production analysis. This paper's main contribution is an instructive survey of the origin of substitution measures and of the trinity of empirical substitution elasticities-AES, cross-price elasticities, and the Morishima elasticities of substitution (MES)-with particular emphasis on their interpretations and the perspectives that will be captured by these measures. This survey clarifies why classical cross-price elasticities are to be preferred for many practical purposes. Berndt and Wood's (Rev. Econom. Stat. 57(1975) 259) frequently applied data set of US manufacturing is used to illustrate why assessments of energy-price policies would be better based on cross-price elasticities like the energy-price elasticity of capital, rather than on AES or MES. (author)

Empirical assessment of energy-price policies: the case for cross-price elasticities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frondel, Manuel

2004-01-01

Evaluations of energy-price policies are necessarily based on measures of the substitution of energy and non-energy inputs. Facing a variety of substitution elasticities, the central question arises which measure would be appropriate. Apparently, for a long time, this question has not been at issue: Allen's elasticities of substitution (AES) have been the most-used measures in applied production analysis. This paper's main contribution is an instructive survey of the origin of substitution measures and of the trinity of empirical substitution elasticities - AES, cross-price elasticities, and the Morishima elasticities of substitution (MES) - with particular emphasis on their interpretations and the perspectives that will be captured by these measures. This survey clarifies why classical cross-price elasticities are to be preferred for many practical purposes. Berndt and Wood's (Rev. Econom. Stat. 57 (1975) 259) frequently applied data set of US manufacturing is used to illustrate why assessments of energy-price policies would be better based on cross-price elasticities like the energy-price elasticity of capital, rather than on AES or MES

Energy markets and price relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergendahl, P.A.

1986-10-01

The aim of the report is to elucidate the way and extent of the dependence of the price of different energy species of one another and particularly of crude oil prices. Oil, coal and natural gas can substitute each other at many applications. The prices are dependent on mining, processing and transporting. Forecasting of prices and future trends are discussed

Responding to high energy prices: energy management services

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raynolds, M.

2001-01-01

Rapid growth in the number and sophistication of energy management companies has been observed in the wake of rising energy prices. These companies offer energy-efficiency consulting services to utilities, government and industry with the promise of improved cost efficiency, marketplace competitiveness and environmental commitments. The environmental benefits result from the reduction in emissions and pollutants associated with power production and natural gas used for space heating. In general, the stock in trade of these energy management companies is the energy audit involving evaluation of existing equipment in buildings and facilities and the resulting recommendations to install energy-efficient equipment such as lighting retrofits, boiler replacement, chiller replacement, variable speed drives, high-efficiency motors, improved insulation and weather proofing, water heaters and piping. The North American market for energy management services was estimated in 1997 at $208 billion (rising to $350 billion by 2004). Current market penetration is less than two per cent

State energy price and expenditure report 1989

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates for the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and the United States. The estimates are provided by energy source (e.g., petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity) and by major consuming or economic sector. This report is an update of the State Energy Price and Expenditure Report 1988 published in September 1990. Changes from the last report are summarized in a section of the documentation. Energy price and expenditure estimates are published for the years 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 through 1989. Documentation follows the tables and describes how the price estimates are developed, including sources of data, methods of estimation, and conversion factors applied. Consumption estimates used to calculate expenditures, and the documentation for those estimates, are from the State Energy Data Report, Consumption Estimates, 1960--1989 (SEDR), published in May 1991. Expenditures are calculated by multiplying the price estimates by the consumption estimates, adjusted to remove process fuel and intermediate product consumption. All expenditures are consumer expenditures, that is, they represent estimates of money directly spent by consumers to purchase energy, generally including taxes. 11 figs., 43 tabs

State energy price and expenditure report 1989

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1991-09-30

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates for the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and the United States. The estimates are provided by energy source (e.g., petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity) and by major consuming or economic sector. This report is an update of the State Energy Price and Expenditure Report 1988 published in September 1990. Changes from the last report are summarized in a section of the documentation. Energy price and expenditure estimates are published for the years 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 through 1989. Documentation follows the tables and describes how the price estimates are developed, including sources of data, methods of estimation, and conversion factors applied. Consumption estimates used to calculate expenditures, and the documentation for those estimates, are from the State Energy Data Report, Consumption Estimates, 1960--1989 (SEDR), published in May 1991. Expenditures are calculated by multiplying the price estimates by the consumption estimates, adjusted to remove process fuel and intermediate product consumption. All expenditures are consumer expenditures, that is, they represent estimates of money directly spent by consumers to purchase energy, generally including taxes. 11 figs., 43 tabs.

The impact of energy price shocks on the UK economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This report describes the results of six scenarios considering the impact of energy price shocks on the UK economy. The six scenarios considered are: UK aggregate energy price scenario; pan-Europe aggregate energy price; global aggregate energy price; UK temporary gas price; UK permanent gas price; crude (Brent) oil price. As expected, shocks to aggregate energy prices cause the largest macroeconomic and energy demand effects (in terms of growth rate volatility). Shocks to gas prices produce a greater growth volatility for macroeconomic and energy demand than shocks to oil prices. In general terms, shocks specific to the UK market tend to produce more growth rate volatility than wider ranging price shocks (global or pan-European). All of the price shocks considered have a recursive effect on the main indicators, which tend to stabilise around the baseline level in the long run. The report summarises the results obtained in the different scenarios

Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing -- an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-11-01

This publication is part of the Energy Market Assessment Program of the National Energy Board. It focuses on identifying factors that affect natural gas prices and describe the current functioning of domestic regional markets in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces.The report emphasizes the growth in demand for natural gas throughout North America, and the aggressive response by producers to the current high price environment with increased drilling programs. The report also predicts a supply and demand adjustment over time, and an accompanying relief in natural gas prices, although the Board is not able to predict with certainty any movements in commodity markets. The Board's findings indicate that domestic users of natural gas paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices have converged. The end result of the convergence was that Canadians have had access to natural gas under terms and conditions which were no less favourable than those in effect for export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems is reviewed, noting that spot markets and futures markets such as the NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had a significant impact on the pricing of natural gas, mostly by allowing market participants to manage price volatility by forward contracting. 1 tab., 42 figs., 1 glossary

State energy price and expenditure report, 1995

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-08-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 States and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the US. The estimates developed in the State Energy Price and Expenditure Data System (SEPEDS) are provided by energy source and economic sector and are published for the years 1970 through 1995. Data for all years are available on a CD-ROM and via Internet. Consumption estimates used to calculate expenditures and the documentation for those estimates are taken from the State Energy Data Report 1995, Consumption Estimates (SEDR), published in December 1997. Expenditures are calculated by multiplying the price estimates by the consumption estimates, which are adjusted to remove process fuel; intermediate petroleum products; and other consumption that has no direct fuel costs, i.e., hydroelectric, geothermal, wind, solar, and photovoltaic energy sources.

Cuba's transition to market-based energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez-Lopez, J.F.

1992-01-01

Since 1960 the Soviet Union has been, for all practical purposes, Cuba's exclusive supplier of energy products. For certain time periods, Soviet sales of oil and oil products to Cuba were made at concessional prices; prior to 1991, they were priced using transferable rubles and were essentially bartered for Cuban goods, especially sugar. Effective January 1, 1991, the Soviet Union shifted to world market prices and convertible currency payments for all traded commodities, including energy products. The shift to market prices and convertible currencies in Cuban-Soviet energy trade has already brought - or is likely to bring - a number of adjustments in four areas: (1) the trade balance; (2) the ability to reexport oil and oil products; (3) energy consumption patterns; (4) and the structure of energy supplies. 33 refs., 8 tabs

Divisia amount and price index for energy consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentzen, J.

1993-01-01

In connection with the calculation of total energy consumption related to aggregation of the individual fuel's combustion values, an alternative to Btu aggregation (combustion value measurement), designated the ''Divisia index'', is presented. This represents an economic measure for energy consumption. The Divisia index is demonstrated in relation to total national energy consumption and total energy consumption within the Danish housing sector and also with regard to the estimation of price and income elasticity within energy demand. It is only possible to utilize the Divisia index in relation to the last 20 years, which is the period where energy consumption has stagnated. The question of possible irreversible effects on energy consumption caused by large variations in energy prices is discussed. It is suggested that the reaction to a fall in prices is different and less significant than is the case with price rises. In the long term, results point at a reasonably high price elasticity within energy demand. (AB) (22 refs.)

Are energy-dense foods really cheaper? Reexamining the relation between food price and energy density.

Science.gov (United States)

Lipsky, Leah M

2009-11-01

The inverse relation between energy density (kcal/g) and energy cost (price/kcal) has been interpreted to suggest that produce (fruit, vegetables) is more expensive than snacks (cookies, chips). The objective of this study was to show the methodologic weakness of comparing energy density with energy cost. The relation between energy density and energy cost was replicated in a random-number data set. Additionally, observational data were collected for produce and snacks from an online supermarket. Variables included total energy (kcal), total weight (g), total number of servings, serving size (g/serving), and energy density (kcal/g). Price measures included energy cost ($/kcal), total price ($), unit price ($/g), and serving price ($/serving). Two-tailed t tests were used to compare price measures by food category. Relations between energy density and price measures within food categories were examined with the use of Spearman rank correlation analysis. The relation between energy density and energy cost was shown to be driven by the algebraic properties of these variables. Food category was strongly correlated with both energy density and food price measures. Energy cost was higher for produce than for snacks. However, total price and unit price were lower for produce. Serving price and serving size were greater for produce than for snacks. Within food categories, energy density was uncorrelated with most measures of food price, except for a weak positive correlation with serving price within the produce category. The findings suggest the relation between energy density and food price is confounded by food category and depends on which measure of price is used.

The Optimal Price Ratio of Typical Energy Sources in Beijing Based on the Computable General Equilibrium Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongxiu He

2014-04-01

Full Text Available In Beijing, China, the rational consumption of energy is affected by the insufficient linkage mechanism of the energy pricing system, the unreasonable price ratio and other issues. This paper combines the characteristics of Beijing’s energy market, putting forward the society-economy equilibrium indicator R maximization taking into consideration the mitigation cost to determine a reasonable price ratio range. Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE model, and dividing four kinds of energy sources into three groups, the impact of price fluctuations of electricity and natural gas on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, Consumer Price Index (CPI, energy consumption and CO2 and SO2 emissions can be simulated for various scenarios. On this basis, the integrated effects of electricity and natural gas price shocks on the Beijing economy and environment can be calculated. The results show that relative to the coal prices, the electricity and natural gas prices in Beijing are currently below reasonable levels; the solution to these unreasonable energy price ratios should begin by improving the energy pricing mechanism, through means such as the establishment of a sound dynamic adjustment mechanism between regulated prices and market prices. This provides a new idea for exploring the rationality of energy price ratios in imperfect competitive energy markets.

The economic and financial crisis: impacts on energy balances and prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hyafil, Antoine

2009-01-01

The current economic crisis finds its origin in the existence of a global market for human capital, without unified prices: the development of a debt economy in Western countries can be regarded as an attempt to maintain economic growth in spite of the resulting pressure on labor wages. While the sub-prime crisis has shown the limits of such an attempt, the author believes that debt driven economic growth will continue to prevail in Western countries until price imbalances on the global market for human capital are resolved. This probably implies a substitution of public to private debt, and of private consumption to public investment with the resulting implications on public deficits, supply and demand, and relative prices. Energy prices will be sensitive to public spending's both mechanical impact on economic growth and qualitative impact on energy efficiency

Real-time pricing strategy of micro-grid energy centre considering price-based demand response

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zhiheng; Zhang, Yongjun; Wang, Gan

2017-07-01

With the development of energy conversion technology such as power to gas (P2G), fuel cell and so on, the coupling between energy sources becomes more and more closely. Centralized dispatch among electricity, natural gas and heat will become a trend. With the goal of maximizing the system revenue, this paper establishes the model of micro-grid energy centre based on energy hub. According to the proposed model, the real-time pricing strategy taking into account price-based demand response of load is developed. And the influence of real-time pricing strategy on the peak load shifting is discussed. In addition, the impact of wind power predicted inaccuracy on real-time pricing strategy is analysed.

Revisiting Environmental Kuznets Curves through the energy price lens

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodríguez, Miguel; Pena-Boquete, Yolanda; Pardo-Fernández, Juan Carlos

2016-01-01

The goal of this paper is to provide new insights to elucidate the inconclusive results from the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) empirical literature. For the first time in empirical literature, an econometric analysis includes the relative prices for several energy sources. The paper provides strong evidence on the relevance of energy prices to CO_2 emissions. Accordingly, one reason for the lack of agreement in the EKC literature may be the absence of energy prices in empirical exercises. The presence of relative energy price changes in the econometric specification confirms a monotonic and positive relationship between CO_2 and gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, we may conclude that there is a decoupling process but without reaching any turning point on that relationship. The policy implications are straightforward. Direct climate action by policy makers is required to break the positive relationship between CO_2 and GDP. That conclusion has been reinforced by the reduction of energy prices since the middle of 2014. Otherwise, the trend in energy prices may reverse the relative decarbonisation processes accounted for in recent years in major developed countries. - Highlights: •EKC literature usually dismiss the major influence of energy prices. •Relative energy prices invalidate the evidence in favour of the EKC hypothesis. •Results may explain some contradictory observations found in the EKC literature. •Nowadays reduction in energy prices may break decarbonisation trends. •Direct action by policymakers is required to break the positive GDP-CO_2 link.

Can environmental sustainability be used to manage energy price risk?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henriques, Irene; Sadorsky, Perry

2010-01-01

Energy security issues and climate change are two of the most pressing problems facing society and both of these problems are likely to increase energy price variability in the coming years. This paper develops and estimates a model of a company's energy price exposure and presents evidence showing that increases in a company's environmental sustainability lowers its energy price exposure. This result is robust across two different measures of energy prices. These results should be useful to companies seeking new ways of addressing energy price risk as well as governments concerned about the impact that energy price risk can have on economic growth and prosperity. (author)

Testing causal relationships between wholesale electricity prices and primary energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakajima, Tadahiro; Hamori, Shigeyuki

2013-01-01

We apply the lag-augmented vector autoregression technique to test the Granger-causal relationships among wholesale electricity prices, natural gas prices, and crude oil prices. In addition, by adopting a cross-correlation function approach, we test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance between the variables. The results of tests using both techniques show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables. -- Highlights: •We test the Granger-causality among wholesale electricity and primary energy prices. •We test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance. •The results show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. •We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables

Energy price comparison of new, renewable, and fossil energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwaren Liun; Sunardi

2014-01-01

Low cost transportation for people and goods is essential to the economic well-being of the nation. Until now, if the oil prices rise, the cost of transportation will automatically follow and most of the people suffering due to soaring prices of food and other items. Almost 100 percent of Indonesian transportation energy demand is supported by oil. Supply disruption - or even the threat of disruption - in the Middle East or elsewhere may lead to a shift in consumer prices and the cost of the industry in significant numbers. While costs in the energy sector, especially electricity in developed countries that also contribute significantly to support the transport sector, is much more stable and predictable. Energy requirements are so high in the transport sector tends to force people to seek the source and means of energy in other forms such as electricity or hydrogen that can match or exceed the performance of fuel oil. This paper aims to analyze the economics of energy price comparison to see the extent of the economic opportunities some kind of energy to play a significant role in the transport sector and the subsequent impact on the energy system. From the results obtained by the analysis that will be increasingly necessary role of nuclear energy and other specific energy as a source of electrical energy considering its economical aspects are relatively better. (author)

International comparison of energy price using a purchasing power parity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, Dong Hun; Jo, Sung Han [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-05-01

The price control of government results in price distortion as well as lowering efficiency of energy market and distortion of allocating resources. Consequently, such a price policy leads to energy overconsumption and has negative influences on other policies trying to reduce environmental burden resulted from energy consumption. When the energy price does not reflect the market price properly, it results in inefficiency of energy industry and it makes very difficult to supply investment funds. Therefore, the government is planning to implement liberalization of energy price step by step. The purpose of this study is to provide basic materials for establishing a reasonable energy price policy through the international comparison among OECD countries on major products price focusing on petroleum products. To overcome problems of exchange rate, a purchasing power indicator from OECD was used for comparative analysis with OECD countries. 11 refs. 1 fig., 23 tabs.

The effect of expected energy prices on energy demand: implications for energy conservation and carbon taxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, R.K.

1994-01-01

This paper describes an empirical method for estimating the effect of expected prices on energy demand. Data for expected oil prices are compiled from forecasts for real oil prices. The effect of expectations on energy demand is simulated with an expectation variable that proxies the return on investment for energy efficient capital. Econometric results indicate that expected prices have a significant effect on energy demand in the US between 1975 and 1989. A model built from the econometric results indicates that the way in which consumers anticipate changes in energy prices that are generated by a carbon tax affects the quantity of emissions abated by the tax. 14 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Low-carbon-oriented dynamic optimization of residential energy pricing in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Yongxiu; Liu, Yangyang; Wang, Jianhui; Xia, Tian; Zhao, Yushan

2014-01-01

In China, the energy pricing mechanism has an insufficient linkage with other energy prices. As a result of the unreasonable price level, it is impossible to exploit fully the substitution elasticity among energy resources and there is a negative impact on achieving energy conservation and energy efficiency. This paper proposes an optimized mechanism for residential energy prices in China, which maximizes the total social surplus subject to some related constraints. Three types of energy pricing mechanisms are designed based on China's low-carbon targets and the optimization of residential energy price policies through the dynamic CGE model. Compared with the energy price linkage method, the results show that the market netback value mechanism has a greater impact on the total social surplus. In order to achieve further low-carbon targets, the proportion of second and third tier residents can be expanded, while the energy prices could be deregulated to some degree. In addition, considering residential affordability, the government may take into account different electricity pricing mechanisms for different tiers of residents. Electricity pricing for the first tier, the second tier and the third tier should be based respectively on cost, the integration of energy price linkage and the market netback value mechanism. - Highlights: • Residential energy price mechanisms can be considered in the D-CGE model. • The maximization of total social surplus is the optimized objective. • The market netback value mechanism has a greater impact on the total social surplus. • Production cost and energy price conduction should be considered in price mechanisms. • Government should take the energy system as a whole to optimize energy prices

Impact of International Oil Price on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Chai

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In the context of “new normal” economy and frequent “haze”, the strategy of energy conservation and emission reduction aiming to lower costs and reduce pollution is currently still a major strategic direction in China and the world, and will remain so for some time in the future. This paper uses the annual data of West Texas Intermediate (WTI crude oil price in 1987–2014 as samples. We firstly present the direction and mechanism of the influence of oil price change on total consumption of every kind of energy by path analysis, and then consider establishing a Structural Vector Autoregression model of energy conservation and emission reduction in three statuses. Research shows that if the international oil price increases by 1%, the energy consumption per GDP and carbon dioxide emission increase by 0.092% and 0.053% respectively in the corresponding period. In the status of high energy consumption and high emission, if the international oil price increases by 1%, the energy consumption per GDP and carbon dioxide emission increase by 0.043% and 0.065% respectively in the corresponding period. In the status of low energy consumption and low emission, if the international oil price increases by 1%, the energy consumption per GDP per unit increases by 0.067% and carbon dioxide emission decreases by 0.085% in the corresponding period.

Energy prices and substitution in United States manufacturing plants

Science.gov (United States)

Grim, Cheryl

Persistent regional disparities in electricity prices, growth in wholesale power markets, and recent deregulation attempts have intensified interest in the performance of the U.S. electric power industry, while skyrocketing fuel prices have brought renewed interest in the effect of changes in prices of all energy types on the U.S. economy. This dissertation examines energy prices and substitution between energy types in U.S. manufacturing. I use a newly constructed database that includes information on purchased electricity and electricity expenditures for more than 48,000 plants per year and additional data on the utilities that supply electricity to study the distribution of electricity prices paid by U.S. manufacturing plants from 1963 to 2000. I find a large compression in the dispersion of electricity prices from 1963 to 1978 due primarily to a decrease in quantity discounts for large electricity purchasers. I also find that spatial dispersion in retail electricity prices among states, counties and utility service territories is large, rises over time for smaller purchasers, and does not diminish as wholesale power markets expand in the 1990s. In addition, I examine energy type consumption patterns, prices, and substitution in U.S. manufacturing plants. I develop a plant-level dataset for 1998 with data on consumption and expenditures on energy and non-energy production inputs, output, and other plant characteristics. I find energy type consumption patterns vary widely across manufacturing plants. Further, I find a large amount of dispersion across plants in the prices paid for electricity, oil, natural gas, and coal. These high levels of dispersion are accounted for by the plant's location, industry, and purchase quantity. Finally, I present estimates of own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for both the energy and non-energy production inputs.

Energy and exergy prices of various energy sources along with their CO2 equivalents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caliskan, Hakan; Hepbasli, Arif

2010-01-01

Various types of energy sources are used in the residential and industrial sectors. Choosing the type of sources is important. When an energy source is selected, its CO 2 equivalent and energy and exergy prices must be known for a sustainable future and for establishing energy policies. These prices are based on their energy values. Exergy analysis has been recently applied to a wide range of energy-related systems. Thus, obtaining the exergy values has become more meaningful for long-term planning. In this study, energy and exergy prices of various energy sources along with CO 2 equivalents are calculated and compared for residential and industrial applications in Turkey. Energy sources considered include coal, diesel oil, electricity, fuel oil, liquid petroleum gas (LPG), natural gas, heat pumps and geothermal, and their prices were obtained over a period of 18 months, from January 2008 to June 2009. For the residential and industrial sectors, minimum energy and exergy prices were found for ground source heat pumps, while maximum energy and exergy prices belong to LPG for both sectors.

Relative Price Levels and Current Accounts: An Exploration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joshua Aizenman

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the links between current accounts and relative price levels, finding that current account changes are associated with sizable future relative price levels effects. This is done in panel regressions of the Penn effect, adding a lagged current account/GDP and other explanatory variables. Higher GDP/ capita and a greater export share of manufacturing tend to mitigate the real exchange rate impact of lagged current accounts. Active management of current accounts may provide a powerful adjustment channel, mitigating the real exchange rate effects of volatile terms of trade, and may explain the growing proliferation of Sovereign Wealth Funds.

Solutions for wood-based bio-energy price discovery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Teraes, Timo [FOEX Indexes Ltd., Helsinki (Finland)], e-mail: timo@foex.fi

2012-11-01

Energy prices are highly volatile. This volatility can have serious ill-effects on the profitability of companies engaged in the energy business. There are, however, a number of price risk management tools which can be used to reduce the problems caused by price volatility. International trade of wood pellets and wood chips is rapidly growing. A good price transparency helps in developing the trade further. In order to meet the renewable energy targets within the EU, further growth of volumes is needed, at least within Europe and from overseas supply sources to the European markets. Reliable price indices are a central element in price risk management and in general price discovery. Exchanges have provided, in the past, the most widely known price discovery systems. Since 1990's, an increasing number of price risk management tools has been based on cash settlement concept. Cash settlement requires high quality benchmark price indices. These have been developed by the exchanges themselves, by trade press and by independent price benchmark provider companies. The best known of these benchmarks in forest industry and now also in wood-based bioenergy products are the PIX indices, provided by FOEX Indexes Ltd. This presentation discusses the key requirements for a good price index and the different ways of using the indices. Price relationships between wood chip prices and pellet prices are also discussed as will be the outlook for the future volume growth and trade flows in woodchips and pellets mainly from the European perspective.

Can deployment of renewable energy put downward pressure on natural gas prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2007-01-01

High and volatile natural gas prices have increasingly led to calls for investments in renewable energy. One line of argument is that deployment of these resources may lead to reductions in the demand for and price of natural gas. Many recent US-based modeling studies have demonstrated that this effect could provide significant consumer savings. In this article we evaluate these studies, and benchmark their findings against economic theory, other modeling results, and a limited empirical literature. We find that many uncertainties remain regarding the absolute magnitude of this effect, and that the reduction in natural gas prices may not represent an increase in aggregate economic wealth. Nonetheless, we conclude that many of the studies of the impact of renewable energy on natural gas prices appear to have represented this effect within reason, given current knowledge. These studies specifically suggest that a 1% reduction in US natural gas demand could lead to long-term average wellhead price reductions of 0.8-2%, and that each megawatt-hour of renewable energy may benefit natural gas consumers to the tune of at least $7.5-20

Can deployment of renewable energy put downward pressure on natural gas prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiser, R.; Bolinger, M.

2007-01-01

High and volatile natural gas prices have increasingly led to calls for investments in renewable energy. One line of argument is that deployment of these resources may lead to reductions in the demand for and price of natural gas. Many recent US-based modeling studies have demonstrated that this effect could provide significant consumer savings. In this article we evaluate these studies, and benchmark their findings against economic theory, other modeling results, and a limited empirical literature. We find that many uncertainties remain regarding the absolute magnitude of this effect, and that the reduction in natural gas prices may not represent an increase in aggregate economic wealth. Nonetheless, we conclude that many of the studies of the impact of renewable energy on natural gas prices appear to have represented this effect within reason, given current knowledge. These studies specifically suggest that a 1% reduction in US natural gas demand could lead to long-term average wellhead price reductions of 0.8-2%, and that each megawatt-hour of renewable energy may benefit natural gas consumers to the tune of at least $7.5-20. [Author

The impact of relative energy prices on industrial energy consumption in China: a consideration of inflation costs.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Lingyun; Ding, Zhihua; Yin, Fang; Wu, Meng

2016-01-01

Significant effort has been exerted on the study of economic variables such as absolute energy prices to understand energy consumption and economic growth. However, this approach ignores general inflation effects, whereby the prices of baskets of goods may rise or fall at different rates from those of energy prices. Thus, it may be the relative energy price, not the absolute energy price, that has most important effects on energy consumption. To test this hypothesis, we introduce a new explanatory variable, the domestic relative energy price, which we define as "the ratio of domestic energy prices to the general price level of an economy," and we test the explanatory power of this new variable. Thus, this paper explores the relationship between relative energy prices and energy consumption in China from the perspective of inflation costs over the period from 1988 to 2012. The direct, regulatory and time-varying effects are captured using methods such as ridge regression and the state-space model. The direct impacts of relative energy prices on total energy consumption and intensity are -0.337 and -0.250, respectively; the effects of comprehensive regulation on energy consumption through the economic structure and the energy structure are -0.144 and -0.148, respectively; and the depressing and upward effects of rising and falling energy prices on energy consumption are 0.3520 and 0.3564, respectively. When economic growth and the energy price level were stable, inflation persisted; thus, rising energy prices benefitted both the economy and the environment. Our analysis is important for policy makers to establish effective energy-pricing policies that ensure both energy conservation and the stability of the pricing system.

A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Labandeira, Xavier; Labeaga, José M.; López-Otero, Xiral

2017-01-01

Price elasticities of energy demand have become increasingly relevant in estimating the socio-economic and environmental effects of energy policies or other events that influence the price of energy goods. Since the 1970s, a large number of academic papers have provided both short and long-term price elasticity estimates for different countries using several models, data and estimation techniques. Yet the literature offers a rather wide range of estimates for the price elasticities of demand for energy. This paper quantitatively summarizes the recent, but sizeable, empirical evidence to facilitate a sounder economic assessment of (in some cases policy-related) energy price changes. It uses meta-analysis to identify the main factors affecting short and long term elasticity results for energy, in general, as well as for specific products, i.e., electricity, natural gas, gasoline, diesel and heating oil. - Highlights: • An updated and wider meta-analysis on price elasticities of energy demand. • Energy goods are shown to be price inelastic both in the short and long-term. • Results are relevant for a proper design and implementation of energy policies. • Our results refer to energy, as a whole, and specific energy goods.

A closed-loop energy price controlling method for real-time energy balancing in a smart grid energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alagoz, B. Baykant; Kaygusuz, Asim; Akcin, Murat; Alagoz, Serkan

2013-01-01

Future smart grids will require a flexible, observable, and controllable network for reliable and efficient energy delivery under uncertain generation and demand conditions. One of the mechanisms for efficient and reliable energy generation is dynamic demand-responsive generation management based on energy price adjustments that creates a balance in energy markets. This study presents a closed-loop PID (proportional–integral–derivative) controller-based price control method for autonomous and real-time balancing of energy demand and generation in smart grid electricity markets. The PID control system can regulate energy prices online to respond dynamically and instantaneously to the varying energy demands of grid consumers. Independent energy suppliers in the smart grid decide whether to sell their energy to the grid according to the energy prices declared by the closed-loop PID controller system. Energy market simulations demonstrate that PID-controlled energy price regulation can effectively maintain an energy balance for hourly demand fluctuations of consumers. - Highlights: • This study presents a control theoretic approach for management of energy balance. • A closed-loop PID controller-based price controlling method is used in smart grid. • The simulation results demonstrate advantages of PID-based energy price control. • This method is appropriate for demand responsive management of smart grid markets

Structural change and forecasting long-run energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, J.T.; Khalaf, L.

2004-01-01

Fluctuating energy prices have a significant impact on the economies of industrialized nations. A recent study has shown a strong non-linear relationship between changes in oil prices and growth in gross domestic product (GDP). In order to forecast the behaviour of energy prices, a complete model must take into account domestic and international supply and demand conditions, market regulations, technological advances and geopolitics. In 1999, Pindyck suggested that for long-term forecasting, a simple model should be adopted where prices grow in real terms and at a fixed rate. This paper tests the statistical significance of Pindyck's suggested class of econometric equations that model the behaviour of long-run real energy prices. The models assume mean-reverting prices with continuous and random changes in their level and trend. They are estimated using Kalman filtering. The authors used simulation-based procedures to address the issue of non-standard test statistics and nuisance parameters. Results were reported for a standard Monte Carlo test and a maximized Monte Carlo test. Results shown statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices, but not for crude oil prices. Various models were differentiated using out-of-sample forecasting exercises. 25 refs., 3 tabs

The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paraschiv, Florentina; Erni, David; Pietsch, Ralf

2014-01-01

In this paper, we analyze the impact of renewable energies, wind and photovoltaic, on the formation of day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. We give an overview of the policy decisions concerning the promotion of renewable energy sources in Germany and discuss their consequences on day-ahead prices. An analysis of electricity spot prices reveals that the introduction of renewable energies enhances extreme price changes. In the frame of a dynamic fundamental model, we show that there has been a continuous electricity price adaption process to market fundamentals. Furthermore, the fundamental drivers of prices differ among hours with different load profiles. Our results imply that renewable energies decrease market spot prices and have implications on the traditional fuel mix for electricity production. However, the prices for the final consumers increased overall because they must pay in addition the feed-in tariffs for the promotion of renewable energy. - Highlights: • We analyze the impact of renewable energies on the day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. • We discuss the impact of renewables on day-ahead prices. • We show a continuous electricity price adaption process to market fundamentals. • Renewable energies decrease market spot prices and shift the merit order curve. • The prices for the final consumers however increased because of feed-in tariffs

Energy price forecast by market analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jongepier, A.G.

2000-01-01

A power trader benefits from accurate price predictions. Based on market analyses, KEMA Connect has developed - in cooperation with Essent Energy Trading - a market model, enhancing the insight into market operation and one's own actions and thus resulting in accurate price predictions

Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Chien-Chiang; Lee, Jun-De [Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung (China)

2009-04-15

This paper investigates the efficient market hypothesis using total energy price and four kinds of various disaggregated energy prices - coal, oil, gas, and electricity - for OECD countries over the period 1978-2006. We employ a highly flexible panel data stationarity test of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Carrion-i-Silvestre JL, Del Barrio-Castro T, Lopez-Bazo E. Breaking the panels: an application to GDP per capita. J Econometrics 2005;8:159-75], which incorporates multiple shifts in level and slope, thereby controlling for cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. Overwhelming evidence in favor of the broken stationarity hypothesis is found, implying that energy prices are not characterized by an efficient market. Thus, it shows the presence of profitable arbitrage opportunities among energy prices. The estimated breaks are meaningful and coincide with the most critical events which affected the energy prices. (author)

Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chien-Chiang; Lee, Jun-De

2009-01-01

This paper investigates the efficient market hypothesis using total energy price and four kinds of various disaggregated energy prices - coal, oil, gas, and electricity - for OECD countries over the period 1978-2006. We employ a highly flexible panel data stationarity test of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Carrion-i-Silvestre JL, Del Barrio-Castro T, Lopez-Bazo E. Breaking the panels: an application to GDP per capita. J Econometrics 2005;8:159-75], which incorporates multiple shifts in level and slope, thereby controlling for cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. Overwhelming evidence in favor of the broken stationarity hypothesis is found, implying that energy prices are not characterized by an efficient market. Thus, it shows the presence of profitable arbitrage opportunities among energy prices. The estimated breaks are meaningful and coincide with the most critical events which affected the energy prices. (author)

Estimation of demand response to energy price signals in energy consumption behaviour in Beijing, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Y.X.; Liu, Y.Y.; Xia, T.; Zhou, B.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Demand response to energy price signals in energy consumption in Beijing is studied. • The electricity price is of great importance to Beijing’s energy market stability. • Industrial sectors have a large electricity self-elasticity and cross-elasticity. • When consuming electricity, customers pay more attention to natural gas price. • Analysis of demand response to energy price can provide guidance to energy policies. - Abstract: The energy price system in Beijing has not fully exploited customers’ price elasticity, and has a negative impact on achieving the goals of energy saving. This paper analyses the response behaviours of different customers to typical energy prices. As for electricity self-elasticity, the range of the primary, secondary, tertiary industry and residents are −0.026 to −0.033, −0.045 to −0.059, −0.035 to −0.047 and −0.024 to −0.032, respectively. As regards self-elasticity on coal, the range of the primary, secondary, tertiary industry and residents are −0.030 to −0.037, −0.066 to −0.093, −0.055 to −0.072 and −0.034 to −0.051, respectively. The self-elasticities on oil and natural gas are very weak. As for cross-elasticity, when consuming electricity and oil, customers mainly focus on the prices of natural gas, which are 0.185 and 0.112. When consuming coal and natural gas, customers are concerned about the electricity prices, and their cross-elasticities are 0.03 and 0.36, respectively. The estimation of demand response to energy price signals in energy consumption behaviours can provide a decision support for formulating rational energy price policies

Natural gas prices in the Maritimes : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-03-01

The National Energy Board monitors the supply and price of natural gas in the Maritimes. This report contains the results and analysis of a survey of the wholesale natural gas prices paid by Canadian buyers in the Maritimes from November 2002 to October 2003. The objective of the report is to improve the understanding of the market factors that influence wholesale natural gas prices in the Maritimes. A comparative evaluation of domestic and export prices shows that Canadian buyers have had access to gas at prices similar to the export market at St. Stephen, New Brunswick. Since the number of participants in the domestic market is low, only four large buyers have a major impact on average prices in the region. The challenge for small buyers will be to buy gas from others who can divert some of their own sales of use. However, these sellers may not want to over-commit to new firm sales in case they have to re-purchase the gas during shortages that may occur due to fluctuations in production or shipping. It was noted that a new gas supply into the region would support many buyers and sellers, and could lead to a more transparent Maritime natural gas market. The National Energy Board is satisfied that the Maritime natural gas market is currently performing as well as can be expected, given its young stage of development. 1 tab., 8 figs., 1 appendix

Oil Prices and the Renewable Energy Sector

OpenAIRE

Kyritsis, Evangelos; Serletis, Apostolos

2017-01-01

Energy security, climate change, and growing energy demand issues are moving up on the global political agenda, and contribute to the rapid growth of the renewable energy sector. In this paper we investigate the effects of oil price shocks, and also of uncertainty about oil prices, on the stock returns of clean energy and technology companies. In doing so, we use monthly data that span the period from May 1983 to December 2016, and a bivariate structural VAR model that is modified to accommod...

Proceedings of the Fourth Forum: Energy Day of Croatia, Prices and Tariff Policy in Energy Supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The principle topic of the four Forums ''Croatian Energy Day'' was ''prices and tariff policy in energy supply''. 23 papers were presented, which were subdivided into four groups: 16th World Energy Council Congress, planning and prices in energetics, oil and natural gas prices and tariffs, and electric energy prices and tariffs

The impact of ownership on price-setting in retail-energy markets—The German case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikogosian, Vigen; Veith, Tobias

2012-01-01

This paper analyzes whether public ownership has an impact on providers' price-setting. Under the assumption of more efficient energy provision which benefits customers a large number of former energy monopolists have been privatized in line with the liberalization of energy markets in Germany at the end of the 1990s. However, current re-municipalizations are justified by similar arguments in the public debate. Based on a dataset on the ownership structure of energy providers we find that public property or private property itself is not the decisive factor for lower retail and wholesale prices. Rather, a high ownership concentration leads to low prices, regardless of the type of owner. As public investors often seek total ownership of a provider, households, which are less willing to switch, benefit at least indirectly from public ownership. Tests for robustness of our results applying different owner and concentration measures confirm the results independently from the underlying estimation specification. - Highlights: ► No difference between publicly or privately owned companies in retail price choice. ► The higher the ownership concentration the lower the retail price. ► No ownership impact on distribution charges, regulation effective against strategic ownership decisions.

The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auping, Willem L.; Pruyt, Erik; Jong, Sijbren de; Kwakkel, Jan H.

2016-01-01

While the shale revolution was largely a US’ affair, it affects the global energy system. In this paper, we look at the effects of this spectacular increase in natural gas, and oil, extraction capacity can have on the mix of primary energy sources, on energy prices, and through that on internal political stability of rentier states. We use two exploratory simulation models to investigate the consequences of the combination of both complexity and uncertainty in relation to the global energy system and state stability. Our simulations show that shale developments could be seen as part of a long term hog-cycle, with a short term drop in oil prices if unconventional supply substitutes demand for oil. These lower oil prices may lead to instability in rentier states neighbouring the EU, especially when dependence on oil and gas income is high, youth bulges are present, or buffers like sovereign wealth funds are too limited to bridge the negative economic effects of temporary low oil prices. - Highlights: • We quantitatively explore geopolitical consequences of the shale gas revolution. • We use a multi-model approach to generate and use energy price scenarios. • Simulations show that current low oil prices could be part of a hog cycle. • The shale gas boom was an early warning for the drop in oil prices. • Low prices due to shale gas can reduce internal stability in rentier states.

Wood-energy: success depends on the price of fossil energies and on the carbon tax level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Defaye, Serge; Maindrault, Marc

2016-01-01

Illustrated by several graphs indicating the structure of fossil energy prices, the comparison between domestic fuel and wood-energy for public network exploitation, the levels of fossil prices and carbon tax for non-subsidised projects, this article analyses the development of biomass (and more particularly wood-energy), the success of which depends on the price of fossil energies and on the carbon tax level. It outlines the differences of price-building elements between fossil and renewable heat, that subsidies are necessary if reference prices are low. It discusses the influence of carbon tax level and of fossil prices. It finally identifies conditions to be met (reduction of fossil energy supply and therefore higher fossil prices, introduction of a carbon tax) to reach COP objectives

Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Ito, Koichiro

This dissertation consists of three empirical studies on nonlinear pricing in energy and environmental markets. The first investigates how consumers respond to multi-tier nonlinear price schedules for residential electricity. Chapter 2 asks a similar research question for residential water pricing. Finally, I examine the effect of nonlinear financial rewards for energy conservation by applying a regression discontinuity design to a large-scale electricity rebate program that was implemented in California. Economic theory generally assumes that consumers respond to marginal prices when making economic decisions, but this assumption may not hold for complex price schedules. The chapter "Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing" provides empirical evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal price when faced with nonlinear electricity price schedules. Nonlinear price schedules, such as progressive income tax rates and multi-tier electricity prices, complicate economic decisions by creating multiple marginal prices for the same good. Evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that consumers facing such price schedules may respond to average price as a heuristic. I empirically test this prediction using field data by exploiting price variation across a spatial discontinuity in electric utility service areas. The territory border of two electric utilities lies within several city boundaries in southern California. As a result, nearly identical households experience substantially different nonlinear electricity price schedules. Using monthly household-level panel data from 1999 to 2008, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. I show that even though this sub-optimizing behavior has a minimal impact on individual welfare, it can critically alter the policy implications of nonlinear pricing. The second chapter " How Do

Induced innovation, energy prices, and the environment

Science.gov (United States)

Popp, David Clifford

The process of developing new technologies is a central question for economic theory as well as for public policy in many areas. For example, the development of cleaner, more efficient energy technologies will play an important role in reducing the threat of global warming. To study how technology evolves over time, this dissertation uses patent data on energy innovations from 1970 to 1991 to examine the impact of energy prices on energy-efficient innovations. Before this can be done, however, information on supply-side factors which influence innovation is also needed. In the case of innovation, supply-side factors are the usefulness of the existing base of scientific knowledge. Patent citations are used for this purpose. Subsequent citations to patents granted each year since 1970 are used to show that the returns to research and development (R&D) fall over time for most of the technologies studied. These estimates are then combined with data on demand-side factors, such as energy prices, to estimate a model of induced innovation in energy technologies. Both energy prices and the supply of knowledge are found to have strongly significant positive effects on innovation. Next, the Yale Technology Concordance (YTC), which maps patents to the industries in which they are used, is employed to construct a stock of energy-related knowledge for 14 energy intensive industries. The effect of changes in this stock on energy consumption in these industries is estimated. On average, the present value of energy savings resulting from a new patent is eight million dollars, with the maximum savings coming about five years after the initial patent application. Finally, the results of each regression are combined to simulate the impact of a ten percent energy tax. Initially, simple factor substitution due to the price change has the largest effect. However, because of the cumulative nature of R&D, induced innovation has a much larger effect than factor substitution in the long run

Price sensitivity of residential energy consumption in Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nesbakken, R.

1999-01-01

The main aim of this paper is to test the stability of the results of a model which focus on the relationship between the choice of heating equipment and the residential energy consumption. The results for the income and energy price variables are of special interest. Stability in the time dimension is tested by applying the model on micro data for each of the years 1993-1995. The parameter estimates are stable within a 95% confidence interval. However, the estimated impact of the energy price variable on energy consumption was considerably weaker in 1994 than in 1993 and 1995. The results for two different income groups in the pooled data set are also subject to stability testing. The energy price sensitivity in residential energy consumption is found to be higher for high-income households than for low-income households. 19 refs

Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices

OpenAIRE

Michael T. Kiley

2008-01-01

I examine the common trend in inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding prices of food and energy. Both the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) indexes and the consumer price indexes (CPI) are examined. The statistical model employed is a bivariate integrated moving average process; this model extends a univariate model that fits the data on inflation very well. The bivariate model forecasts as well as the univariate models. The results suggest that the relationship betwe...

Financing renewable energy infrastructure: Formulation, pricing and impact of a carbon revenue bond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Amy; Chiara, Nicola; Taylor, John E.

2012-01-01

Renewable energy systems depend on large financial incentives to compete with conventional generation methods. Market-based incentives, including state-level REC markets and international carbon markets have been proposed as solutions to increase renewable energy investment. In this paper we introduce and formulate a carbon revenue bond, a financing tool to complement environmental credit markets to encourage renewable energy investment. To illustrate its use, we value the bond by predicting future revenue using stochastic processes after analyzing historical price data. Three illustrative examples are presented for renewable energy development in three different markets: Europe, Australia and New Jersey. Our findings reveal that the sale of a carbon revenue bond with a ten year maturity can finance a significant portion of a project's initial cost. - Highlights: ► Current financial incentives for renewable energy in the US are inadequate. ► We introduce and structure a “carbon revenue bond” as an innovative financing tool. ► Stochastic models of environmental credit prices are used to illustrate bond pricing. ► Three examples illustrate revenue bond impact on initial cost of infrastructure.

Determinants of the energy price system in the Federal Republic of Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hennicke, P.

1983-01-01

The seven theses presented in this article are to illustrate some basic determinants of the West German energy price system systematically and - at present mainly - empirically. The theses are related to the following sub-aspects: - relation between the consumption structure of primary energy and the heat-price relations, - influence of energy imports on the domestic energy price level, - existence and dimensions of differential revenues, - reproaches of bulling made to the petroleum industry, - extent and development of the differentiation of energy prices, - influence of governmental interventions on the energy price level, - theoretical price fixing principles and actual tariff policy.

Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

approach we derive a closed form option pricing formula for energy quanto options, under the assumption that the underlying assets are log-normally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive delta and gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options have increased significantly in the recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature and are suited for managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using an HJM...... expressions for hedging. Furthermore, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NYMEX traded natural gas futures and CME traded Heating Degree Days futures for New York....

Prices make energy savings more then a slogan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jesny, M.; Hruz, J.

2003-01-01

Energy has become a commodity with economic price in Slovakia. For years the energy price has not fulfilled the basic economic criteria - covering of production costs. It was used as one of the instruments of Governments social policy. But the situation is changing. Another phase of bringing the prices to a realistic level brought along a price increase by tens of percents. As the energy prices are increasing and there is a perspective that they will grow further all possible reserves and cheaper energy sources have to be identified. A simplified energetic model of Slovak economy identifies three basic energy-consumer kinds - industry, buildings and transport. Industry uses about one half of the Slovakia's yearly energy-consume. Aim private companies to survive in a competitive environment guarantees of a rational approach towards energy consume. The fact that even in companies that use high volumes of primary raw material the energy consume is the highest cost item (many times higher then the labour costs) is the main incentive for looking for saving possibilities in this area. A decrease of the industries' share in energy consume may indicate some positive trends. The energy consume in industries has dropped by ten percent within ten years and its share on the overall consume is approaching the 45-percent level. This was partially caused by decreasing production volumes or closing down of production in several companies. Energy consume of buildings represents about 35 - 40 percent of the national consume i.e. is on a level similar to other European countries. This is a sector is the most important. It is its structure that is important. Currently there are 1,8 million flat units in Slovakia. Family houses represent 48 percent and the remaining 52 percent go to flats. In close to 800-thousand family houses owned by the people living in them nobody has to stress the importance of energy savings. The user knows exactly how much energy has been used. The ownership is

Energy policies in a macroeconomic model: an analysis of energy taxes when oil prices decline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capros, P.; Karadeloglou, P.; Mentzas, G.

1992-01-01

This paper attempts an analysis of energy and macroeconomic policy issues in oil-importing countries within the context of decreasing oil prices and macroeconomic modelling. A medium-term perspective is retained and the assumption is made that the economy experiences unemployment and excess capacity when the price declines. The analysis excludes any response elements that refer to long-term equilibria, optimum allocation of resources or welfare characterization of results which should be dealt with within the context of price adjusted equilibrium models. This paper adopts the approach of quantity adjusted neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models. The paper also inquires into the macroeconomic models currently used by the Commission of the European Communities. The analysis is carried out using the HGRV model which is a large-scale neo-Keynesian multisectoral macroeconomic model of the Greek economy. (UK)

Perceived price complexity of dynamic energy tariffs: An investigation of antecedents and consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Layer, Patrick; Feurer, Sven; Jochem, Patrick

2017-01-01

Dynamic tariffs have the potential to contribute to a successful shift from conventional to renewable energies, but tapping this potential in Europe ultimately depends on residential consumers selecting them. This study proposes and finds that consumer reactions to dynamic tariffs depend on the level of perceived price complexity that represents the cognitive effort consumers must engage in to compute the overall bill amount. An online experiment conducted with a representative sample of 664 German residential energy consumers examines how salient characteristics of dynamic tariffs contribute to perceived price complexity. Subsequently, a structural equation model (SEM) reveals that the depth of information processing is central to understand how price complexity relates to consumers’ behavioral intentions. The results suggest that it will be challenging to convince European consumers to select complex dynamic tariffs under the current legal framework. Policymakers will need to find ways to make these tariffs more attractive. - Highlights: • Little is known about the processes by which consumers evaluate dynamic tariffs. • In this evaluation process perceived price complexity plays a central role. • Tariff type, price endings, and discount presentation format drive price complexity. • Perceived price complexity decreases the depth of information processing. • A decreased depth of information processing ultimately leads to lower behavioral intentions.

Energy prices, volatility, and the stock market. Evidence from the Eurozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oberndorfer, Ulrich

2009-01-01

This paper constitutes a first analysis on stock returns of energy corporations from the Eurozone. It focuses on the relationship between energy market developments and the pricing of European energy stocks. According to our results, oil price hikes negatively impact on stock returns of European utilities. However, they lead to an appreciation of oil and gas stocks. Interestingly, forecastable oil market volatility negatively affects European oil and gas stocks, implying profit opportunities for strategic investors. In contrast, the gas market does not play a role for the pricing of Eurozone energy stocks. Coal price developments affect the stock returns of European utilities. However, this effect is small compared to oil price impacts, although oil is barely used for electricity generation in Europe. This suggests that for the European stock market, the oil price is the main indicator for energy price developments as a whole. (author)

Energy return on (energy) invested (EROI), oil prices, and energy transitions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heun, Matthew Kuperus; de Wit, Martin

2012-01-01

Very little work has been done so far to model, test, and understand the relationship between oil prices and EROI over time. This paper investigates whether a declining EROI is associated with an increasing oil price and speculates on the implications of these results on oil policy. A model of the relationship between EROI and oil market prices was developed using basic economic and physical assumptions and non-linear least-squares regression models to correlate oil production price with EROI using available data from 1954–1996. The model accurately reflects historical oil prices (1954–1996), and it correlates well with historical oil prices (1997–2010) if a linear extrapolation of EROI decline is assumed. As EROI declines below 10, highly non-linear oil price movements are observed. Increasing physical oil scarcity is already providing market signals that would stimulate a transition away from oil toward alternative energy sources. But, price signals of physical oil scarcity are not sufficient to guarantee smooth transitions to alternative fuel sources, especially when there is insufficient oil extraction technology development, a declining mark-up ratio, a non-linear EROI–cost of production relationship, and a non-linear EROI–price relationship. - Highlights: ► A model of the relationship between EROI and oil prices has been developed. ► As EROI declines below 10, highly non-linear oil price movements are expected. ► Physical oil scarcity provides market signals for a transition to alternatives. ► Scarcity price signals are insufficient for smooth transitions to alternatives.

Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

2015-01-01

–Jarrow–Morton approach, we derive a closed-form option pricing formula for energy quanto options under the assumption that the underlying assets are lognormally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive Delta and Gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options has increased significantly in recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature. They are suited to managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using a Heath...... expressions for hedging. Further, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NewYork Mercantile Exchange-traded natural gas futures and Chicago Mercantile Exchange-traded heating degree days futures for NewYork....

A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanamura, Takashi

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kanamura, Takashi [J-POWER, 15-1, Ginza 6-Chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8165 (Japan)

2009-09-15

This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozlale, Umit; Pekkurnaz, Didem

2010-01-01

Although there has been an increasing number of studies about the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic performances, the literature on the interaction between oil prices and current account is limited, especially for oil importing developing countries. This paper analyzes the impact of oil prices on the current account balances for the Turkish economy using a structural vector autoregression model. Our model allows us to identify the net effect of oil prices on current account balances after controlling for other factors such as output gap and exchange rate misalignment. The results show that the response of current account ratio to oil price shock increases gradually up to the first three months and then starts to decrease, which indicates a significant effect of oil price shocks in the short-run. Moreover, when the obtained structural shocks are employed in a simple regression analysis, the parameter regarding the oil price shocks is found to be negative and statistically significant. The final section discusses the policy implications of the results.

TRADING ACTIVITY AND PRICES IN ENERGY FUTURES MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aysegul Ates

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to examine trading activity and the relationship between futures trading activity by trader type and energy price movements in three energy futures markets –natural gas, crude oil and heating oil. We find that the level of net positions of speculators are positively related to future returns and in contrast net positions of hedgers are negatively related to futures price changes in all three markets. The changes in net positions are relatively more informative compare to the level of net positions in predicting price changes in related markets.

Energy symposium 2007 - energy secured?... for what price. Summary of the congress contributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

With its topical title ''Energy secured?.. for what price'' the 2007 Energy Symposium has added yet another milestone to its success story. Energy is a fundamental aspect of our industrial society. It is of essential importance that the demand for low-cost energy is strategically secured. Energy prices are basic to calculations on products that have to be sold and exported. They are therefore also an essential factor in securing Europe as an industrial region

Determinants of food price inflation in Finland—The role of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irz, Xavier; Niemi, Jyrki; Liu, Xing

2013-01-01

The agricultural commodity crisis of 2006–2008 and the recent evolution of commodity markets have reignited anxieties in Finland over fast-rising food prices and food security. Little is known about the strength of the linkages between food markets and input markets, such as the energy market. Using monthly series of price indices from 1995 to 2010, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model in a cointegration framework in order to investigate the short-term and long-term dynamics of food price formation. The results indicate that a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the prices of food and those of the main variable inputs consumed by the food chain, namely agricultural commodities, labour, and energy. When judged by the magnitude of long-run pass-through rates, farm prices represent the main determinant of food prices, followed by wages in food retail and the price of energy. The parsimonious VEC model suggests that the dynamics of food price formation are dominated by a relatively quick process of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, the half life of the transitional dynamics being six to eight months following a shock. - Highlights: • We investigate the dynamics of food price formation in Finland. • We establish the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices of food, energy, agricultural commodities, and wages. • Energy price plays a significant but limited role in determining the equilibrium level of food prices

An integrated framework for energy pricing in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munasinghe, M.

1989-01-01

In the paper the importance of coordinated energy planning and pricing is emphasized with particular reference to the interrelationships among the pricing polices adopted in various energy subsectors such as electric power, petroleum, natural gas, coal and traditional fuels. Nonconventional sources can also be fitted into this framework. The chief investment issues are also touched to the extent that they strongly influence pricing policy. 15 refs, 7 figs

Price and income elasticities of residential energy demand in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulte, Isabella; Heindl, Peter

2017-01-01

We apply a quadratic expenditure system to estimate price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand (electricity and heating) in Germany. Using official expenditure data from 1993 to 2008, we estimate an expenditure elasticity for electricity of 0.3988 and of 0.4055 for space heating. The own price elasticity for electricity is −0.4310 and −0.5008 in the case of space heating. Disaggregation of households by expenditure and socio-economic composition reveals that the behavioural response to energy price changes is weaker (stronger) for low-income (top-income) households. There are considerable economies of scale in residential energy use but scale effects are not well approximated by the new OECD equivalence scale. Real increases in energy prices show a regressive pattern of incidence, implying that the welfare consequences of direct energy taxation are larger for low income households. The application of zero-elasticities in assessments of welfare consequences of energy taxation strongly underestimates potential welfare effects. The increase in inequality is 22% smaller when compared to the application of disaggregated price and income elasticities as estimated in this paper. - Highlights: • We estimate price, income, and expenditure elasticities for residential energy demand in Germany. • We differentiate elasticities by income groups and household type. • Electricity and space heating are necessary goods since the expenditure elasticities are smaller than unity. • Low-income households show a weaker reaction to changing prices when compared to high-income households. • Direct energy taxation has regressive effects, meaning that larger burdens fall upon low-income households.

Non-fiscal price incentives. The energy-efficiency impact of differentiated energy prices; Niet-fiscale prijsprikkels. Onderzoek naar het besparingseffect van gedifferentieerde energieprijzen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leguijt, C.; Blom, M.B.J.; Schepers, B.L.; Warringa, G.E.A.

2012-02-15

An exploratory study has been carried out on the potential impact of non-fiscal energy incentives. The study will feed into the Dutch government policies on energy efficiency in the built environment. The study takes in both electricity and gas, and private dwellings as well as utility buildings. The following non-fiscal price incentives were considered: (1) consumer prices indexed to consumption volume; (2) consumer prices indexed to time of consumption; (3) the energy-efficiency impact of 'autonomous' increases in energy prices. The energy-efficiency effects of price changes (options 1 and 3) were calculated on the basis of price elasticities, while for option 2 use was made of the results of the Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Smart Grids carried out by CE Delft in collaboration with KEMA. The conclusions of the study are as follows: (a) Although differentiating consumer prices by consumption volume may yield energy savings of up to 2%, this would require market agreements in breach of the competition rules underpinning the liberalised energy market. This option is therefore unfeasible via consumer prices; (b) The energy savings accruing from indexing consumer prices to time of consumption are uncertain, as the main impact will be a temporal shift in consumption. This option is highly feasible, as such differentiation will in all likelihood evolve of its own accord with the roll-out of smart meters and smart grids; (c) The energy-efficiency impact of autonomous energy price rises is 0.2 to 0.4% per annum [Dutch] CE Delft heeft in opdracht van het Ministerie van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijkrelaties (BZK) een verkenning uitgevoerd naar de mogelijkheden voor niet-fiscale energieprijsprikkels. De studie maakt onderdeel uit van het plan van aanpak energiebesparing gebouwde omgeving van BZK. De verkenning betreft zowel elektriciteit als gas, en zowel huishoudens als utiliteitbouw. De niet-fiscale prijsprikkels die zijn verkend betreffen: (1

Price regulation in the Spanish energy sectors: who benefits?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arocena, Pablo; Contin, Ignacio; Huerta, Emilio

2002-01-01

This paper analyses the distribution of benefits between firms and consumers due to the price regulation of the Spanish energy sectors (electricity, oil fuels and gas) during the decade 1987-1997. To that effect, we compare the actual evolution of energy prices with alternate benchmarks in order to assess the potential existence of a pro-industry or a pro-consumer bias in the pricing policies followed by the regulator. Our results show a pro-industry-biased regulatory context, where consumers benefited very little from price control. The successive price adjustments over time allowed the companies to keep all the productivity gains and cost reductions and to increase their profitability rates relative to those achieved in the manufacturing sector. (Author)

Price regulation in the Spanish energy sectors: who benefits?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arocena, Pablo; Contin, Ignacio; Huerta, Emilio [Departamento de Gestion de Empresas, Universidad Publica de Navarra, Campus de Arrosadia. 31006, Pamplona (Spain); [Canterbury Business School, University of Kent Canterbury (United Kingdom)

2002-08-01

This paper analyses the distribution of benefits between firms and consumers due to the price regulation of the Spanish energy sectors (electricity, oil fuels and gas) during the decade 1987-1997. To that effect, we compare the actual evolution of energy prices with alternate benchmarks in order to assess the potential existence of a pro-industry or a pro-consumer bias in the pricing policies followed by the regulator. Our results show a pro-industry-biased regulatory context, where consumers benefited very little from price control. The successive price adjustments over time allowed the companies to keep all the productivity gains and cost reductions and to increase their profitability rates relative to those achieved in the manufacturing sector. (Author)

Energy Trading and Pricing in Microgrids with Uncertain Energy Supply: A Three-Stage Hierarchical Game Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kai Ma

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This paper studies an energy trading and pricing problem for microgrids with uncertain energy supply. The energy provider with the renewable energy (RE generation (wind power determines the energy purchase from the electricity markets and the pricing strategy for consumers to maximize its profit, and then the consumers determine their energy demands to maximize their payoffs. The hierarchical game is established between the energy provider and the consumers. The energy provider is the leader and the consumers are the followers in the hierarchical game. We consider two types of consumers according to their response to the price, i.e., the price-taking consumers and the price-anticipating consumers. We derive the equilibrium point of the hierarchical game through the backward induction method. Comparing the two types of consumers, we study the influence of the types of consumers on the equilibrium point. In particular, the uncertainty of the energy supply from the energy provider is considered. Simulation results show that the energy provider can obtain more profit using the proposed decision-making scheme.

Energy performance ratings and house prices in Wales: An empirical study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuerst, Franz; McAllister, Pat; Nanda, Anupam; Wyatt, Pete

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the effect of Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) ratings on residential prices in Wales. Drawing on a sample of approximately 192,000 transactions, the capitalisation of energy efficiency ratings into house prices is investigated using two approaches. The first adopts a cross-sectional framework to investigate the effect of EPC rating on price. The second approach applies a repeat-sales methodology to investigate the impact of EPC rating on house price appreciation. Statistically significant positive price premiums are estimated for dwellings in EPC bands A/B (12.8%) and C (3.5%) compared to houses in band D. For dwellings in band E (−3.6%) and F (−6.5%) there are statistically significant discounts. Such effects may not be the result of energy performance alone. In addition to energy cost differences, the price effect may be due to additional benefits of energy efficient features. An analysis of the private rental segment reveals that, in contrast to the general market, low-EPC rated dwellings were not traded at a significant discount. This suggests different implicit prices of potential energy savings for landlords and owner-occupiers.

A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliott, Robert J.; Lyle, Matthew R.; Miao, Hong

2010-01-01

We use a supply-demand approach to value energy products exposed to emission cost uncertainty. We find closed form solutions for a number of popularly traded energy derivatives such as: forwards, European call options written on spot prices and European Call options written on forward contracts. Our modeling approach is to first construct noisy supply and demand processes and then equate them to find an equilibrium price. This approach is very general while still allowing for sensitivity analysis within a valuation setting. Our assumption is that, in the presence of emission costs, traditional supply growth will slow down causing output prices of energy products to become more costly over time. However, emission costs do not immediately cause output price appreciation, but instead expose individual projects, particularly those with high emission outputs, to much more extreme risks through the cost side of their profit stream. Our results have implications for hedging and pricing for producers operating in areas facing a stochastic emission cost environment. (author)

Influence of rising commodity prices on energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keppo, I.J.

2009-04-01

During the past few years we have first witnessed a rapid increase in the prices of commodities and then later, as a consequence of the economic downturn, an even more drastic drop. Simultaneously with the commodity price increase, an increase in the investment costs of power plants was experienced. The rise in material costs was often stated as one of the reasons for this increase. In this study the relationship between commodity costs and energy prices is studied. A bottom-up approach is used for estimating what kind of an impact increased commodity prices alone could be expected to have on the investment costs on the one hand, and how increased energy prices may affect commodity production costs on the other. The results indicate that although the commodity production costs usually have a fairly large energy component, even high increases in commodity prices, and therefore raw material costs of power plant investments, can not explain the recently experienced hikes in power plant investment costs; a doubling of the costs of the main raw material flows could explain an investment cost increase of some 5-10%, depending on the power plant type. This would seem to indicate that other contributing factors, such as bottlenecks in the production of power plant components, may play an important role in the recent investment cost increase

Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kyrtsou, Catherine; Malliaris, Anastasios G.; Serletis, Apostolos

2009-01-01

Modern economies have been subjected to a number of shocks during the past several years such as the burst of the Internet bubble, terrorist attacks, corporate scandals, the war in Iraq, the uncertainty about energy prices, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis. In particular, during the last few years, the energy shock has caused concerns for potential stagflation for both the United States and numerous other countries. We perform numerous univariate tests for non-linearity and chaotic structure using price data from the energy sector to resolve whether the sector's fundamentals or exogenous shocks drive these prices.

Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kyrtsou, Catherine [University of Macedonia (Greece); Malliaris, Anastasios G. [Loyola University Chicago (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [University of Calgary (Canada)], E-mail: Serletis@ucalgary.ca

2009-05-15

Modern economies have been subjected to a number of shocks during the past several years such as the burst of the Internet bubble, terrorist attacks, corporate scandals, the war in Iraq, the uncertainty about energy prices, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis. In particular, during the last few years, the energy shock has caused concerns for potential stagflation for both the United States and numerous other countries. We perform numerous univariate tests for non-linearity and chaotic structure using price data from the energy sector to resolve whether the sector's fundamentals or exogenous shocks drive these prices.

Energy sector pricing. On the role of neglected nonlinearity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kyrtsou, Catherine [University of Macedonia (Greece); Malliaris, Anastasios G. [Loyola University Chicago (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [University of Calgary (Canada)

2009-05-15

Modern economies have been subjected to a number of shocks during the past several years such as the burst of the Internet bubble, terrorist attacks, corporate scandals, the war in Iraq, the uncertainty about energy prices, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis. In particular, during the last few years, the energy shock has caused concerns for potential stagflation for both the United States and numerous other countries. We perform numerous univariate tests for non-linearity and chaotic structure using price data from the energy sector to resolve whether the sector's fundamentals or exogenous shocks drive these prices. (author)

The relation between food price, energy density and diet quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margareta Bolarić

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Low energy density diet, high in fruits and vegetables, is related to lower obesity risk and to better health status, but is more expensive. High energy density diet, high in added sugar and fats, is more affordable, but is related to higher obesity and chronic diseases risk. The aim of this study was to report prices according to energy density (low vs. high of food items and to show how food affordability could affect food choice and consumers’ health. Data was collected for 137 raw and processed foods from three purchase sites in Zagreb (one representative for supermarket, one smaller shop and green market. Results showed that low energy density food is more expensive than high energy density food (for example, the price of 1000 kcal from green zucchini (15 kcal/100 g is 124.20 kn while the price of 1000 kcal from sour cream (138 kcal/100 g is 13.99 kn. Food energy price was significantly different (p<0.05 between food groups with highest price for vegetable products (159.04 ± 36.18 kn/1000 kcal and raw vegetables (97.90 ± 50.13 kn/1000 kcal and lowest for fats (8.49 ± 1.22 kn/1000 kcal and cereals and products (5.66 ± 0.76 kn/1000 kcal. Negative correlation (Spearman r=-0.72, p<0.0001 was observed for energy density (kcal/100 g and price of 1000 kcal. Therefore, it is advisable to develop strategies in order to reduce price of low energy density food and encourage its intake since it would improve diet quality, which could lead to better costumers’ health.

Energy prices. How energy supply companies can make the jump out of the price trap; Energiepreise. EVU kann der Sprung aus der Preisfalle gelingen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weinreich, Uwe; Hoffmann, Christian [SNPC GmbH, Berlin (Germany)

2012-12-15

While differentiated price strategies have long been in use in other branches, energy supply companies are still often caught in the habit of thinking from the power plant end. When one starts one's thinking from the customer and the market it opens the way to better product and price strategies - strategies that deliver added value to both customer and energy supplier. However, energy supply companies must align their product and market strategies accordingly in order for this to be successful. Four levels of price management can be distinguished in developing profitability potentials in the energy economy.

Stationarity changes in long-run energy commodity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaklan, Aleksandar; Abrell, Jan; Neumann, Anne

2016-01-01

Situated at the intersection of the literatures on speculative storage and non-renewable commodity scarcity, this paper considers whether changes in persistence have occurred in long-run U.S. prices of the energy commodities crude oil, natural gas and bituminous coal. We allow for a structural break when testing for a break in persistence to avoid a change in the stochastic properties of prices being confounded by an unaccounted-for deterministic shift in the price series. We find that coal prices are trend stationary throughout their evolution and that oil prices change from stationarity to non-stationarity in the decade between the late 1960s to late 1970s. The result on gas prices is ambiguous. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for a possible structural shift when testing for breaks in persistence, while being robust to the exact date of the structural break. Based on our analysis we caution against viewing long-run energy commodity prices as being non-stationary and conclude in favor of modeling commodity market fundamentals as stationary, meaning that speculative storage will tend to have a dampening effect on prices. We also cannot reject that long-run prices of coal and, with some hesitation, gas follow a Hotelling-type rule. In contrast, we reject the Hotelling rule for oil prices since the late 1960s/early 1970s. - Highlights: • This paper contributes to the literatures on speculative storage and scarcity. • We test if long-run U.S. coal, oil and gas prices became non-stationary. • We pre-test for structural breaks when testing for changes in persistence. • Coal prices are found to be trend stationary, oil prices become non-stationary. • We caution against modeling commodity market fundamentals as non-stationary.

Economic impact of the energy price increase in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uri, N.D.; Boyd, R.

1997-01-01

One unknown with regard to the price increases for gasoline and electricity is what will be the expected impact as the Mexican economy struggles to rebound. This is of more than spurious concern since many Mexican industries rely both intensively and extensively on gasoline and electricity to produce their goods and services. For example, the petrochemical and steel manufacturing industries are major consumers in Mexico's industrial sector which accounts for 55% of total energy consumption. Mexico's steel industry is one of the most electricity intensive in the world, with heavy reliance on electric arc furnace technology. Mexico's transportation sector accounts for about 30% of total energy consumption. Higher energy prices are expected to affect significantly the price and quantity of the goods and services produced. The nature and extent of this effect is the subject of this article. Also the modelling approach to be used in assessing the impact of higher energy prices will be discussed. 2 tabs., 20 refs

Micro-energy markets: The role of a consumer preference pricing strategy on microgrid energy investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faber, Isaac; Lane, William; Pak, Wayne; Prakel, Mary; Rocha, Cheyne; Farr, John V.

2014-01-01

The fragility of the modern electrical grid is exposed during random events such as storms, sporting events and often simply routine operation. Even with these obvious flaws large utilities and governments have been slow to create robust solutions due to the need of large capital investments required to address the issues. In this light creative economic and engineering solutions are desired to finance the needed upgrades. Driven by the requirement to have uninterrupted power that meets customers desires this research focuses on linking consumer preferences to a type of energy source in order to best fulfill stakeholder priorities. This approach is in contrast to the current and prevalent lowest cost methods to producing and consuming energy. This research yields a preliminary ‘micro-energy market’ that consists of an energy network architecture, pricing methodology and mathematical template which quantifies potential economic inefficiencies. If exploited these inefficiencies could be used to fund investment into various energy sources that provide unmet needs such as reduced carbon footprint, renewable, quality, and local production. These inefficiencies can be best exploited within the structure of a microgrid. Identification of opportunities on this smaller scale can provide an incentive for producers to develop a robust set of production facilities of varying size and characteristics to meet the consumer preferences. A stochastic optimization model of a microgrid implementation for a small military installation is used to evaluate the effects of this pricing methodology. The energy production of the resulting microgrid would be optimized to meet consumer preferences and minimize economic inefficiency. - Highlights: • This research focuses on linking consumer preferences to a type of energy source. • Pricing methodology quantifies strategic investments in alternative sources. • Inefficiencies could be used to fund investment into various energy sources

Pricing strategies in inelastic energy markets: can we use less if we can't extract more?

Science.gov (United States)

Voinov, Alexey; Filatova, Tatiana

2014-03-01

Limited supply of nonrenewable energy resources under growing energy demand creates a situation when a marginal change in the quantity supplied or demanded causes non-marginal swings in price levels. The situation is worsened by the fact that we are currently running out of cheap energy resources at the global scale while adaptation to climate change requires extra energy costs. It is often argued that technology and alternative energy will be a solution. However, alternative energy infrastructure also requires additional energy investments, which can further increase the gap between energy demand and supply. This paper presents an explorative model that demonstrates that a smooth transition from an oil-based economy to alternative energy sources is possible only if it is started well in advance while fossil resources are still abundant. Later the transition looks much more dramatic and it becomes risky to rely entirely on technological solutions. It becomes increasingly likely that in addition to technological solutions that can increase supply we will need to find ways to decrease demand and consumption. We further argue that market mechanisms can be just as powerful tools to curb demand as they have traditionally been for stimulating consumption. We observe that individuals who consume more energy resources benefit at the expense of those who consume less, effectively imposing price externalities on the latters. We suggest two transparent and flexible methods of pricing that attempt to eliminate price externalities on energy resources. Such pricing schemes stimulate less consumption and can smooth the transition to renewable energy.

Reform of refined oil product pricing mechanism and energy rebound effect for passenger transportation in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Boqiang; Liu, Xia

2013-01-01

Improving energy efficiency is the primary method adopted by the Chinese government in an effort to achieve energy conservation target in the transport sector. However, the offsetting effect of energy rebound would greatly reduce its real energy-saving potentials. We set up a Linear Approximation of the Almost Ideal Demand System Model (LA-AIDS model) to estimate the rebound effect for passenger transportation in China. Real energy conservation effect of improving energy efficiency can also be obtained in the process. The result shows that the rebound effect is approximately 107.2%. This figure signifies the existence of ‘backfire effect’, indicating that efficiency improvement in practice does not always lead to energy-saving. We conclude that one important factor leading to the rebound effect, is the refined oil pricing mechanism. China's refined oil pricing mechanism has been subjected to criticism in recent years. The results of simulation analysis show that the rebound could be reduced to approximately 90.7% if the refined oil pricing mechanism is reformed. In this regard, we suggest further reforms in the current refined oil pricing mechanism. - Highlights: ► We set up the LA-AIDS model to estimate traffic service demand for urban residents. ► The size of the rebound effect for passenger transportation in China is evaluated. ► The rebound effect for passenger transportation in China is 107.2%. ► Reform of oil pricing could reduced the rebound to 90.7%. ► Reform of oil pricing might be an effective method for mitigating rebound effect

Comprehensive optimisation of China’s energy prices, taxes and subsidy policies based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Y.X.; Liu, Y.Y.; Du, M.; Zhang, J.X.; Pang, Y.X.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Energy policy is defined as a complication of energy price, tax and subsidy policies. • The maximisation of total social benefit is the optimised objective. • A more rational carbon tax ranges from 10 to 20 Yuan/ton under the current situation. • The optimal coefficient pricing is more conducive to maximise total social benefit. - Abstract: Under the condition of increasingly serious environmental pollution, rational energy policy plays an important role in the practical significance of energy conservation and emission reduction. This paper defines energy policies as the compilation of energy prices, taxes and subsidy policies. Moreover, it establishes the optimisation model of China’s energy policy based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which maximises the total social benefit, in order to explore the comprehensive influences of a carbon tax, the sales pricing mechanism and the renewable energy fund policy. The results show that when the change rates of gross domestic product and consumer price index are ±2%, ±5% and the renewable energy supply structure ratio is 7%, the more reasonable carbon tax ranges from 10 to 20 Yuan/ton, and the optimal coefficient pricing mechanism is more conducive to the objective of maximising the total social benefit. From the perspective of optimising the overall energy policies, if the upper limit of change rate in consumer price index is 2.2%, the existing renewable energy fund should be improved

Pricing strategies in inelastic energy markets : can we use less if we can’t extract more?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voinov, A.; Filatova, Tatiana

2014-01-01

Limited supply of nonrenewable energy resources under growing energy demand creates a situation when a marginal change in the quantity supplied or demanded causes non-marginal swings in price levels. The situation is worsened by the fact that we are currently running out of cheap energy resources at

Examination of energy price policies in Iran for optimal configuration of CHP and CCHP systems based on particle swarm optimization algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tichi, S.G.; Ardehali, M.M.; Nazari, M.E.

2010-01-01

The current subsidized energy prices in Iran are proposed to be gradually eliminated over the next few years. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of current and future energy price policies on optimal configuration of combined heat and power (CHP) and combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP) systems in Iran, under the conditions of selling and not-selling electricity to utility. The particle swarm optimization algorithm is used for minimizing the cost function for owning and operating various CHP and CCHP systems in an industrial dairy unit. The results show that with the estimated future unsubsidized utility prices, CHP and CCHP systems operating with reciprocating engine prime mover have total costs of 5.6 and $2.9x10 6 over useful life of 20 years, respectively, while both systems have the same capital recovery periods of 1.3 years. However, for the same prime mover and with current subsidized prices, CHP and CCHP systems require 4.9 and 5.2 years for capital recovery, respectively. It is concluded that the current energy price policies hinder the promotion of installing CHP and CCHP systems and, the policy of selling electricity to utility as well as eliminating subsidies are prerequisites to successful widespread utilization of such systems.

Energy consumption and economic development after the energy price increases of 1973

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Danielewski, J.

1993-01-01

The interdependence between energy consumption and economic development are highlighted in this research, which focuses on energy price rises between 1973 and 1989. Three groups of countries are identified, developing and developed market economies and centrally planned economies. Two areas of interdependence are examined, firstly the dynamic relationship between primary energy consumption growth and real economic growth and secondly the static relationship between primary energy consumption and national income. In the period under review, developing market economies reacted most strongly to higher energy prices, with lower energy consumption while maintaining real growth in the Gross Domestic Product. However developing countries and centrally planned economies increased their energy consumption per unit of national income although the rate of increase slowed after 1975. (UK)

North American natural gas liquids pricing and convergence : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-05-01

A background on natural gas liquids (NGL) pricing was presented along with a discussion regarding the impact of energy price convergence. The high energy prices in the fall of 2000 were a result of many factors, including the high price of NGLs. All NGL components such as ethane, propane and butane can be used as petrochemical feedstock. In the winter of 2000/2001 the relationship between liquids and crude oil prices collapsed when high energy prices led to a situation where, for a short while, extraction of liquids from natural gas became uneconomic since producers got more value for NGLs left in the gas stream. As a result, when the supply and demand balances for NGL tightened in many regions of North America, NGL prices were reflecting the unprecedented high natural gas prices. This paper also explained how the four major North American NGL trading hubs in Alberta, Ontario, Kansas and Texas operate. The pricing events of 2000 have impacted on the NGL industry and energy prices remain an issue since both crude oil and natural gas price are forecasted to remain strong in the near future. 5 figs

From a bundled energy-capacity pricing model to an energy-capacity-ancillary services pricing model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raineri, Ricardo; Arce, Raul; Rios, Sebastian; Salamanca, Carlos

2008-01-01

In this paper, we extend the Chilean power generation pricing mechanism, with capacity and energy payments, to one where ancillary services (AS), as frequency regulation and voltage control, are explicitly recognized. Adequacy and security attributes of the electric system and the public good characteristics of AS are set within the payment structure to distribute the financing of AS among those who benefit from their provision. The contribution to finance the provision of AS is determined assessing the value assigned to the system security by each agent, following what's an efficient pricing mechanism in the presence of public goods

China's experiment on the differential electricity pricing policy and the struggle for energy conservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Jinjin

2011-01-01

Differential electricity pricing was promulgated by China's central government to guide the development of high energy-consuming industries, which are significant for energy conservation. This paper examines the twists and turns of the policy implementation at the provincial level, and seeks to elucidate the difficulties in its implementation. Local governments, concerned that following the central directives would hurt local interests, have tried to deviate from the central orders while the central revises the policy from time to time to ensure local compliance. Three difficulties are analyzed: (1) the current relations between the central and local energy regulatory institutions make these local institutions difficult to perform their duties, and affect incentives for local governments to respond to central directives; (2) financial reform puts a great burden on local governments to raise revenues to cover expenditures, making local governments focus mainly on economic development rather than serving merely as political agents of the central government; (3) the aggressive attitude of local governments in pursuing GDP growth is not necessarily driven by the central government, but by pressure from competition among localities and the need to win local support. Solving these difficulties is important for making national energy conservation polices effective and efficient. - Highlights: → Adopt the differential electricity pricing policy to achieve energy conservation. → The implementation of the differential electricity pricing policy is far from smooth. → Current relations between the central and local energy regulatory institutions. → Financial burden on local governments. → Pressure from competition among localities and the need to win local support.

Rise of energy price, rise of agricultural prices: what medium- and long-term relations and implications?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voituriez, T.

2009-01-01

We review in this study the different factors which have been presented by the scientific community as possible explanations of the sudden upsurge in commodity prices between 2006 and 2008. We examine whether scientific evidence validates any causal relationship, and particularly emphasize the role of explanatory variables underpinning the co-movement of energy and food price rises. Our aim is to provide an up-to-date understanding of food and energy market relationships, so as to better anticipate the possible changes in the evolution of prices in the coming years. (author)

48 CFR 15.406-2 - Certificate of current cost or pricing data.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... cost or pricing data. 15.406-2 Section 15.406-2 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION CONTRACTING METHODS AND CONTRACT TYPES CONTRACTING BY NEGOTIATION Contract Pricing 15.406-2 Certificate of current cost or pricing data. (a) When certified cost or pricing data are...

Average regional end-use energy price projections to the year 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

The energy prices shown in this report cover the period from 1991 through 2030. These prices reflect sector/fuel price projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1991 (AEO) base case, developed using the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) forecasting model. Projections through 2010 are AEO base case forecasts. Projections for the period from 2011 through 2030 were developed separately from the AEO for this report, and the basis for these projections is described in Chapter 3. Projections in this report include average energy prices for each of four Census Regions for the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation end-use sectors. Energy sources include electricity, distillate fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline, residual fuel oil, natural gas, and steam coal. (VC)

The logic of the primary energy prices evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giraud, P.N.

1992-01-01

This paper deals, very briefly, with the basis factors determining the prices levels of the primary energies and the logic of their evolution both in the short and in the long term. It first gives definitions: of the limits of mineral commodities prices fluctuations and of the long term equilibrium prices. Then, it tries to demonstrate three points: (1) Coal and nuclear electricity prices are driven in the long term only by their own production and environmental costs. Moreover, coal prices fluctuations are surrounded by factors which are basically independent from oil prices. (2) There is no such thing as one single equilibrium price for oil, but several ones, depending on political factors, and among them, on the degree of consensus between the 'Five' of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Irak, Koweit, The Emirates). (3) Natural gas prices are in an intermediate situation, but tend to get closer to the case of coal and nuclear prices. 4 figs

Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

2002-05-15

Advocates of energy efficiency and renewable energy have long argued that such technologies can mitigate fuel price risk within a resource portfolio. Such arguments--made with renewed vigor in the wake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility during the winter of 2000/2001--have mostly been qualitative in nature, however, with few attempts to actually quantify the price stability benefit that these sources provide. In evaluating this benefit, it is important to recognize that alternative price hedging instruments are available--in particular, gas-based financial derivatives (futures and swaps) and physical, fixed-price gas contracts. Whether energy efficiency and renewable energy can provide price stability at lower cost than these alternative means is therefore a key question for resource acquisition planners. In this paper we evaluate the cost of hedging gas price risk through financial hedging instruments. To do this, we compare the price of a 10-year natural gas swap (i.e., what it costs to lock in prices over the next 10 years) to a 10-year natural gas price forecast (i.e., what the market is expecting spot natural gas prices to be over the next 10 years). We find that over the past two years natural gas users have had to pay a premium as high as $0.76/mmBtu (0.53/242/kWh at an aggressive 7,000 Btu/kWh heat rate) over expected spot prices to lock in natural gas prices for the next 10 years. This incremental cost to hedge gas price risk exposure is potentially large enough - particularly if incorporated by policymakers and regulators into decision-making practices - to tip the scales away from new investments in variable-price, natural gas-fired generation and in favor of fixed-price investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy.

Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

2002-01-01

Advocates of energy efficiency and renewable energy have long argued that such technologies can mitigate fuel price risk within a resource portfolio. Such arguments-made with renewed vigor in the wake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility during the winter of 2000/2001-have mostly been qualitative in nature, however, with few attempts to actually quantify the price stability benefit that these sources provide. In evaluating this benefit, it is important to recognize that alternative price hedging instruments are available-in particular, gas-based financial derivatives (futures and swaps) and physical, fixed-price gas contracts. Whether energy efficiency and renewable energy can provide price stability at lower cost than these alternative means is therefore a key question for resource acquisition planners. In this paper we evaluate the cost of hedging gas price risk through financial hedging instruments. To do this, we compare the price of a 10-year natural gas swap (i.e., what it costs to lock in prices over the next 10 years) to a 10-year natural gas price forecast (i.e., what the market is expecting spot natural gas prices to be over the next 10 years). We find that over the past two years natural gas users have had to pay a premium as high as$0.76/mmBtu (0.53/242/kWh at an aggressive 7,000 Btu/kWh heat rate) over expected spot prices to lock in natural gas prices for the next 10 years. This incremental cost to hedge gas price risk exposure is potentially large enough - particularly if incorporated by policymakers and regulators into decision-making practices - to tip the scales away from new investments in variable-price, natural gas-fired generation and in favor of fixed-price investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy

Modelling energy spot prices by Lévy semistationary processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

This paper introduces a new modelling framework for energy spot prices based on Lévy semistationary processes. Lévy semistationary processes are special cases of the general class of ambit processes. We provide a detailed analysis of the probabilistic properties of such models and we show how...... they are able to capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. Furthermore, we derive forward prices based on our spot price model. As it turns out, many of the classical spot models can be embedded into our novel modelling framework....

Effect of Ramping Requirement and Price Cap on Energy Price in a System with High Wind Penetration

OpenAIRE

Martin, Sebastián; Smeers, Yves; Aguado-Sanchez, Jose Antonio

2015-01-01

The European power market is currently retiring or mothballing large capacities of conventional plants, and at the same time incorporating a significant amount of non-dispatchable renewable generation, in particular wind. We analyse the mothballing process (and the resulting system) and study how they are affected by a price cap implemented in the energy only market, and by a possible implementation of ramping products in the system. Sebastian Martin, Yves Smeers, and Jose Aguado. Effect o...

Opening the gas market - Effects on energy consumption, energy prices and the environment and compensation measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dettli, R.; Signer, B.; Kaufmann, Y.

2001-01-01

This final report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) examines the effects of a future liberalisation of the gas market in Switzerland. The report first examines the current situation of the gas supply industry in Switzerland. The contents of European Union Guidelines are described and their implementation in Switzerland is discussed. Experience already gained in other countries is looked at, including market opening already implemented in the USA and Great Britain. The effect of market-opening on gas prices is discussed; the various components of the gas price are examined and comparisons are made with international figures. The pressure of competition on the individual sectors of the gas industry are looked at and the perspectives in the gas purchasing market are examined. The report presents basic scenarios developed from these considerations. Further effects resulting from a market opening are discussed, including those on the structure of the gas industry, its participants, electricity generation, energy use and the environment, consumers in general, security of supply and the national economy. Possible compensatory measures are discussed and factors for increasing efficiency and the promotion of a competitive environment are discussed. In the appendix, two price scenarios are presented

Energy access. Current situation, challenges and outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-07-01

Globally over 1.3 billion people do not have access to electricity and 2.6 billion people rely on the traditional use of biomass for cooking. Energy access is one of the major challenges of the 21. century as it is a lever for both economic and human development, at individual and national level. Moreover, energy access represents a high-potential market and offers a lot of opportunities for private companies and industrials. In this publication, ENEA lays out the current situation of energy access (actors, actual and future needs, existing technological solutions, markets). The publication addresses the main issues energy access has to face: energy price, equipment financing, distribution, scale-up, and environmental performances

The Impact of Energy Price Decline on China's Energy-Economy-Environment System Variables Using a CGE Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Zhengquan; Wang, Daojuan; Chen, Chong

In recent years, prices of coal and crude oil have fallen significantly. These declines have had a large impact on China’s energy-economy-environment system variables. This paper establishes a computable general equilibrium model to systematically analyse the impact of coal price changes alone...... or the decline of both coal and oil prices on the variables of China's energy-economy-environment system. The results of the analysis show that the decline of the coal price alone or of coal and crude oil prices together will lead to a significant increase in demand for either coal and total energy or coal...

Gradual reforms and the emergence of energy market in China: Evidence from tests for convergence of energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Hengyun; Oxley, Les; Gibson, John

2009-01-01

This study investigates the emergence of energy markets by testing for convergence of energy prices with a new dataset on energy spot prices in 35 major cities in China. Both descriptive statistics and unit root are employed to test the convergence of energy prices for each of four fuel price series. The whole study period is divided into two sub-periods in order to reconcile the gradual energy reforms. The results show the steady improvement in energy market performance in China, especially during the second sub-period, which suggests that the market appears to be playing an increasing role in determining energy prices. While panel unit root tests show energy markets are integrated in China as a whole, city-by-city univariate unit root tests suggest that there are still many regional energy markets, probably because energy reserves (especially coal) vary widely across regions. Since China's energy economy is gradually moving towards market-oriented mechanisms, the existing literature may become obsolete soon.

Determination of the fuel component in the cost price of the energy production in NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lakov, M.; Velev, V.

1997-01-01

An approach is proposed for the determination of the fuel component in the cost price of the nuclear units production with regards of the difference between the time of the fuel consumption and the energy production. This method gives the opportunity for fuel consumption prognostication, as well as an optimization of both short and long term fueling regimes. This approach permits current update of the economic conditions and the pre-history of the investments. It can be used both for the determination of the fuel component and the full cost price of the energy production in NPPs.(author)

Actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects: lessons foul and fair

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mathew, Paul E-mail: pamathew@lbl.gov; Kromer, J. Stephen; Sezgen, Osman; Meyers, Steven

2005-07-01

Recent market convulsions in the energy industry have generated a plethora of post-mortem analyses on a wide range of issues, including accounting rules, corporate governance, commodity markets, and energy policy. While most of these analyses have focused on business practices related to wholesale energy trading, there has been limited analysis of retail energy services, particularly energy efficiency projects. We suggest that there were several business concepts and strategies in the energy efficiency arena whose inherent value may have been masked by the larger failure of companies such as Enron. In this paper, we describe one such concept, namely, actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects, which leverages a portfolio-based approach to risk management. First, we discuss the business drivers, contrasting this approach with conventional industry practice. We then describe the implementation of this approach, including an actuarial database, pricing curves, and a pricing process compatible with commodity pricing. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects and barriers for the further development of transparent and quantifiable risk management products for energy efficiency, a prerequisite for developing energy efficiency as a tradeable commodity. We address these issues from an experiential standpoint, drawing mostly on our experience in developing and implementing such strategies at Enron.

Actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects: lessons foul and fair

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathew, Paul; Kromer, J. Stephen; Sezgen, Osman; Meyers, Steven

2005-01-01

Recent market convulsions in the energy industry have generated a plethora of post-mortem analyses on a wide range of issues, including accounting rules, corporate governance, commodity markets, and energy policy. While most of these analyses have focused on business practices related to wholesale energy trading, there has been limited analysis of retail energy services, particularly energy efficiency projects. We suggest that there were several business concepts and strategies in the energy efficiency arena whose inherent value may have been masked by the larger failure of companies such as Enron. In this paper, we describe one such concept, namely, actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects, which leverages a portfolio-based approach to risk management. First, we discuss the business drivers, contrasting this approach with conventional industry practice. We then describe the implementation of this approach, including an actuarial database, pricing curves, and a pricing process compatible with commodity pricing. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects and barriers for the further development of transparent and quantifiable risk management products for energy efficiency, a prerequisite for developing energy efficiency as a tradeable commodity. We address these issues from an experiential standpoint, drawing mostly on our experience in developing and implementing such strategies at Enron

Long memory in German energy price indices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barros, Carlos P. [Lisbon Univ. (Portugal). Inst. Superior de Economia e Gestao; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria [Brunel Univ., London (United Kingdom). Centre for Empirical Finance; Gil-Alana, Luis A. [Navarra Univ., Pamplona (Spain). Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

2012-09-15

This study examines the long-memory properties of German energy price indices (specifically, import and export prices, as well as producer and consumer prices) for hard coal, lignite, mineral oil and natural gas adopting a fractional integration modelling framework. The analysis is undertaken using monthly data from January 2000 to August 2011. The results suggest nonstationary long memory in the series (with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1) when breaks are not allowed for. However, endogenous break tests indicate a single break in all series except for producer prices for lignite for which two breaks are detected. When such breaks are taken into account, and with autocorrelated disturbances, evidence of mean reversion is found in practically all cases.

Arbitrage free pricing of forward and futures in the energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloster, Kristian

2003-01-01

This thesis will describe a method for an arbitrage-free evaluation of forward and futures contracts in the Nordic electricity market. This is a market where it is not possible to hedge using the underlying asset which one normally would do. The electricity market is a relatively new market, and is less developed than the financial markets. The pricing of energy and energy derivatives are depending on factors like production, transport, storage etc. There are different approaches when pricing a forward contract in an energy market. With motivation from interest rate theory, one could model the forward prices directly in the risk neutral world. Another approach is to start out with a model for the spot prices in the physical world, and then derive theoretical forward prices, which then are fitted to observed forward prices. These and other approaches are described by Clewlow and Strickland in their book, Energy derivatives. This thesis uses the approach where I start out with a model for the spot price, and then derive theoretical forward prices. I use a generalization of the multifactor Schwartz model with seasonal trends and Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes to model the spot prices for electricity. This continuous-time model also incorporates mean-reversion, which is an important aspect of energy prices. Historical data for the spot prices is used to estimate my variables in the multi-factor Schwartz model. Then one can specify arbitrage-free prices for forward and futures based on the Schwartz model. The result from this procedure is a joint spot and forward price model in both the risk neutral and physical market, together with knowledge of the equivalent martingale measure chosen by the market. This measure can be interpreted as the market price of risk, which is of interest for risk management. In this setup both futures and forward contracts will have the same pricing dynamics, as the only difference between the two types of contracts is how the payment for the

Energy pricing. Economics and principles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conkling, Roger L. [Portland Univ., OR (United States). School of Business Administration

2011-07-01

This book describes the processes through which rates for energy consumption are derived, ranging from initial analyses of the supply and demand parameters to the final forms and levels of end-use consumer prices. The author argues against aggressive accounting procedures, and suggests criteria for choosing firm's position on pending public policy issues. A handbook on energy formulae for non-professionals is included in the book. The author is adjunct professor at the University of Portland. (orig.)

Russian energy prices, taxes and costs 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The Russian energy industry may be the country's most promising exporter, but it is struggling to free itself from the heavy regulation and economic distortions inherited from the Soviet era. This analysis examines Russian price and tax policies as well as production costs in 1993, and their effect on supply and demand in the oil, coal, gas and electricity sectors. The study underscores the broad consensus among both Western and Russian experts that primary energy prices should be lifted to world levels. It offers a framework for addressing the great question about how fast this should be done in a country undergoing a tremendous social and political transformation

Differential electricity pricing and energy efficiency in South Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohler, Marcel

2014-01-01

By international standards the economy of South Africa is extremely energy intensive with only a few countries having higher intensities. SA's primary energy use per unit of GDP is amongst the highest in the world. The high energy and electricity intensity of the economy partly reflects SA's resource endowments (in particular the abundance of coal) but is also a function of the historical under-pricing of coal and electricity by the authorities. South African mining and industrial electricity efficiency is particularly concerning and considerably lower than the global average. This paper sets out to fill a significant gap in the South African energy literature by highlighting the importance of incorporating electricity demand factors as part of the country's energy policy and electricity planning horizon. The paper focuses its attention on modelling the electricity consumption of SA's industrial and mining sectors given these account for the lion's share of electricity demand. A differential electricity pricing policy which targets electricity intensive industrial and mining activities (as practised in China since 2004) is viewed by the author to be a superior policy to blanket electricity price increases administered by authorities in an effort to encourage electricity savings and improve energy efficiency in South Africa. - Highlights: • SA's primary energy use per unit of GDP is amongst the highest in the world. • SA industrial electricity efficiency is considerably lower than the global average. • A differential electricity pricing policy which targets electricity intensive activities. • Differential tariffs raise the cost of energy inefficiency and induces energy saving. • Highlights importance of energy demand modelling in electricity supply planning

Energy prices and the post oil/energy crisis Brazilian inflation: an input-output study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lara-Resende, M.deM.

1982-01-01

This study is an attempt to understand the implications of the OPEC-induced severalfold increase in the international price of oil for average and sectoral domestic prices in Brazil, a large oil-importing open developing economy. Rather than using a Keynesian model (focusing on the universal characteristics of an economy), the study makes use of an open-price input-output model (capturing the structural characteristics of the Brazilian economy). The first three chapters, descriptive in nature, place in perspective the following three, which detail the model and the empirical results. The main conclusion is that, despite the significant increase observed in the post-crisis period, the relative percentage contribution of primary energy to wholesale inflation in Brazil is still relatively minor. A conservative estimate suggests that, in the years of substantial acceleration (1974 and 1979), approximately 15% of the wholesale inflation was due to energy (basically crude oil and oil derivatives). Though such low estimates are partly due to the limitations and assumptions underlying input-output analysis, it seems that the acceleration of inflation is related to more than cost increases originating in energy prices. It also seems to be related to agricultural and labor prices, as well as to the government's decision to abruptly and inopportunely raise several important product prices.

Easing the natural gas crisis: Reducing natural gas prices through increased deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; St. Clair, Matt

2004-12-21

Heightened natural gas prices have emerged as a key energy-policy challenge for at least the early part of the 21st century. With the recent run-up in gas prices and the expected continuation of volatile and high prices in the near future, a growing number of voices are calling for increased diversification of energy supplies. Proponents of renewable energy and energy efficiency identify these clean energy sources as an important part of the solution. Increased deployment of renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) can hedge natural gas price risk in more than one way, but this paper touches on just one potential benefit: displacement of gas-fired electricity generation, which reduces natural gas demand and thus puts downward pressure on gas prices. Many recent modeling studies of increased RE and EE deployment have demonstrated that this ''secondary'' effect of lowering natural gas prices could be significant; as a result, this effect is increasingly cited as justification for policies promoting RE and EE. This paper summarizes recent studies that have evaluated the gas-price-reduction effect of RE and EE deployment, analyzes the results of these studies in light of economic theory and other research, reviews the reasonableness of the effect as portrayed in modeling studies, and develops a simple tool that can be used to evaluate the impact of RE and EE on gas prices without relying on a complex national energy model. Key findings are summarized.

Economic analysis of upgrading aging residential buildings in China based on dynamic energy consumption and energy price in a market economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouyang Jinlong; Lu Meijun; Li Bing; Wang Chunyuan; Hokao, Kazunori

2011-01-01

This article employed a standard LCC to conduct economic analysis of upgrading the aging residential buildings in China. According to the current situation, an interest rate of 6%, an inflation rate of 3%, an increase rate of annual energy savings of 2% and an increase rate of electricity price of 2% were assumed in the method. The results indicated that only relying on gradually increasing electricity price and governments' subsidies was not enough. After detailed analysis of the energy saving measures and the distribution of all benefits from building energy retrofit, it was found that actually only 1/3 of original cost was spent only for energy savings, the second 1/3 for both energy savings and good facade appearance and occupants should share the last 1/3 because even if without energy retrofit, they would have to pay the part too. The corresponding results proved that the first 1/3 of investment cost could be drawn back within the residue life cycle, and so the investment could be accepted in a sheer market economy. In the end, a model about distribution of investment cost of and benefits was proposed to adapt the market economy to overcome the financial problems in China. - Highlights: → The paper uses LCC to conduct economic analysis on building energy retrofit of China. → LCC considers dynamic energy use, energy price and economic development of China. → Only relying on increasing electricity price and governments' subsidies is not enough. → Actually only 1/3 of original cost is spent only for energy saving, can be drawn back. → Investors, governments and occupants should respectively pay 1/3 of investment cost.

Decrease of energy and emission prices undesired. Unfair attack on CO2-levies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blom, M.; De Keizer, I.; Benner, J.

2005-01-01

Recently, in the Netherlands, fuel taxes and prices for CO2 emission are criticised. High energy prices are used to suggest other forms of pricing regulations. However, the higher energy prices and CO2-levies are very useful in realizing a sustainable energy supply. More transparency in the market for emissions trading is required to prevent unfair on-charge expenses of CO2-charges [nl

International crude oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies: Evidence from non-linear cointegration tests with unknown structural breaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bondia, Ripsy; Ghosh, Sajal; Kanjilal, Kakali

2016-01-01

Increasing greenhouse gas emissions, exhaustibility and geo-politics induced price volatility of crude oil has magnified the importance of looking for alternative sources of energy. In this paper, we investigate the long term relationship of stock prices of alternative energy companies with oil prices in a multivariate framework. To this end, we use threshold cointegration tests, which endogenously incorporate possible regime shifts in long run relationship of underlying variables. In contrast to the findings of the previous study by Managi and Okimoto (2013), our results indicate presence of cointegration among the variables with two endogenous structural breaks. This study confirms that ignoring the presence of structural breaks in a long time series data, as has been done in previous study, can produce misleading results. In terms of causality, while the stock prices of alternative energy companies are impacted by technology stock prices, oil prices and interest rates in the short run, there is no causality running towards prices of alternative energy stock prices in the long run. The study discusses the possible reasons behind the empirical findings and concludes with a discussion on short run and long run investment opportunities for the investors. - Highlights: • Cointegration between alternative energy companies stock price and oil price. • Threshold cointegration tests are employed. • Cointegration among the variables exists with two endogenous structural breaks. • Alternative energy companies stock price impacted by oil prices in short run. • No causality running towards prices of alternative energy stock prices in long run.

Renewable Energy Price-Stability Benefits in Utility Green Power Programs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bird, L. A.; Cory, K. S.; Swezey, B. G.

2008-08-01

This paper examines utility experiences when offering the fixed-price benefits of renewable energy in green pricing programs, including the methods utilized and the impact on program participation. It focuses primarily on utility green pricing programs in states that have not undergone electric industry restructuring.

Innovation and the price of wind energy in the US

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, David

2009-01-01

In the last ten years, the wind energy industry has experienced many innovations resulting in wider deployment of wind energy, larger wind energy projects, larger wind turbines, and greater capacity factors. Using regression analysis, this paper examines the effects of technological improvements and other factors on the price of wind energy charged under long-term contracts in the United States. For wind energy projects completed during the period 1999-2006, higher capacity factors and larger wind farms contributed to reductions in wind energy contract prices paid by regulated investor owned utilities in 2007. However, this effect was offset by rising construction costs. Turbine size (in MW) shows no clear relationship to contract prices, possibly because there may be opposing factors tending to decrease costs as turbine size increases and tending to increase costs as turbine size increases. Wind energy is generally a low-cost resource that is competitive with natural gas-fired power generation.

Distributional effects of the Australian Renewable Energy Target (RET) through wholesale and retail electricity price impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cludius, Johanna; Forrest, Sam; MacGill, Iain

2014-01-01

The Australian Renewable Energy Target (RET) has spurred significant investment in renewable electricity generation, notably wind power, over the past decade. This paper considers distributional implications of the RET for different energy users. Using time-series regression, we show that the increasing amount of wind energy has placed considerable downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices through the so-called merit order effect. On the other hand, RET costs are passed on to consumers in the form of retail electricity price premiums. Our findings highlight likely significant redistributive transfers between different energy user classes under current RET arrangements. In particular, some energy-intensive industries are benefiting from lower wholesale electricity prices whilst being largely exempted from contributing to the costs of the scheme. By contrast, many households are paying significant RET pass through costs whilst not necessarily benefiting from lower wholesale prices. A more equitable distribution of RET costs and benefits could be achieved by reviewing the scope and extent of industry exemptions and ensuring that methodologies to estimate wholesale price components in regulated electricity tariffs reflect more closely actual market conditions. More generally, these findings support the growing international appreciation that policy makers need to integrate distributional assessments into policy design and implementation. - Highlights: • The Australian RET has complex yet important distributional impacts on different energy users. • Likely wealth transfers from residential and small business consumers to large energy-intensive industry. • Merit order effects of wind likely overcompensate exempt industry for contribution to RET costs. • RET costs for households could be reduced if merit order effects were adequately passed through. • Need for distributional impact assessments when designing and implementing clean energy policy

Accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in OECD industrial energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adeyemi, Olutomi I.; Hunt, Lester C.

2014-01-01

This paper explores the way technical progress and improvements in energy efficiency are captured when modelling OECD industrial energy demand. The industrial sectors of the developed world involve a number of different practices and processes utilising a range of different technologies. Consequently, given the derived demand nature of energy, it is vital when modelling industrial energy demand that the impact of technical progress is appropriately captured. However, the energy economics literature does not give a clear guide on how this can be achieved; one strand suggests that technical progress is ‘endogenous’ via asymmetric price responses whereas another strand suggests that it is ‘exogenous’. More recently, it has been suggested that potentially there is a role for both ‘endogenous’ technical progress and ‘exogenous’ technical progress and consequently the general model should be specified accordingly. This paper therefore attempts to model OECD industrial energy demand using annual time series data over the period 1962–2010 for 15 OECD countries. Using the Structural Time Series Model framework, the general specifications allow for both asymmetric price responses (for technical progress to impact endogenously) and an underlying energy demand trend (for technical progress and other factors to impact exogenously, but in a non-linear way). The results show that almost all of the preferred models for OECD industrial energy demand incorporate both a stochastic underlying energy demand trend and asymmetric price responses. This gives estimated long-run income elasticities in the range of 0.34 to 0.96; estimated long-run price-maximum elasticities in the range of − 0.06 to − 1.22; estimated long-run price-recovery elasticities in the range of 0.00 to − 0.27; and estimated long-run price-cut elasticities in the range of 0.00 to − 0.18. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that when modelling industrial energy demand there is a place for �

Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices based on a HP filter and time difference analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Yongxiu; Wang, Bing; Wang, Jianhui; Xiong, Wei; Xia, Tian

2013-01-01

To establish a reasonable system and mechanism for Chinese energy prices, we use the Granger causality test, Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter and time difference analysis to research the pricing relationship between Chinese and international energy prices. We find that Chinese and international crude oil prices changed synchronously while Chinese refined oil prices follow the changes of international oil prices with the time difference being about 1 month to 2 months. Further, Australian coal prices Granger causes Chinese coal prices, and there is a high correlation between them. The U.S. electricity price is influenced by the WTI crude oil price, the U.S. gasoline price and the HenryHub gas price. Due to the unreasonable price-setting mechanism and regulation from the central government, China′s terminal market prices for both electricity and natural gas do not reflect the real supply–demand situation. This paper provides quantitative results on the correlation between Chinese and international energy prices to better predict the impact of international energy price fluctuations on China′s domestic energy supply and guide the design of more efficient energy pricing policies. Moreover, it provides references for developing countries to improve their energy market systems and trading, and to coordinate domestic and international energy markets. -- Highlights: •The Hodrick-Prescott filter and time difference analysis are used to research the correlation among energy prices. •Our study finds that the U.S. and British refined oil prices Granger cause the Chinese refined oil price. •Both Chinese and the Australian coal prices play an important role in the international coal market. •The Chinese terminal electric power and terminal natural gas prices are not highly correlated. •The results are useful for guiding the design of more efficient energy pricing policies in China

Rise of oil prices and energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This document reprints the talk of the press conference given by D. de Villepin, French prime minister, on August 16, 2005 about the alarming rise of oil prices. In his talk, the prime minister explains the reasons of the crisis (increase of worldwide consumption, political tensions in the Middle East..) and presents the strategy and main trends of the French energy policy: re-launching of energy investments in petroleum refining capacities and in the nuclear domain (new generation of power plants), development of renewable energy sources and in particular biofuels, re-launching of the energy saving policy thanks to financial incentives and to the development of clean vehicles and mass transportation systems. In a second part, the prime minister presents his policy of retro-cession of petroleum tax profits to low income workers, and of charge abatement to professionals having an occupation strongly penalized by the rise of oil prices (truckers, farmers, fishermen, taxi drivers). (J.S.)

Price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand during urbanization: An empirical analysis based on the household-level survey data in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Chuanwang; Ouyang, Xiaoling

2016-01-01

Urbanization, one of the most obvious characteristics of economic growth in China, has an apparent “lock-in effect” on residential energy consumption pattern. It is expected that residential sector would become a major force that drives China's energy consumption after urbanization process. We estimate price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand using data from China's Residential Energy Consumption Survey (CRECS) that covers households at different income levels and from different regional and social groups. Empirical results from the Almost Ideal Demand System model are in accordance with the basic expectations: the demands for electricity, natural gas and transport fuels are inelastic in the residential sector due to the unreasonable pricing mechanism. We further investigate the sensitivities of different income groups to prices of the three types of energy. Policy simulations indicate that rationalizing energy pricing mechanism is an important guarantee for energy sustainable development during urbanization. Finally, we put forward suggestions on energy pricing reform in the residential sector based on characteristics of China's undergoing urbanization process and the current energy consumption situations.

The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadorsky, P.

2000-01-01

This paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates. Results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co-integrated with a trade-weighted index of exchange rates. This is important because it means that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these four variables. Granger causality results for both the long- and short-run are presented. Evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices. 22 refs

Renewable energy as a natural gas price hedge: the case of wind

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, David

2005-01-01

Electric utilities use natural gas to fuel many of their power plants, especially those plants which provide electricity at peak and intermediate hours. Natural gas prices are highly volatile and have shown a general upward trend. Wind energy can provide a cost-effective hedge against natural gas price volatility or price increases. This conclusion is based on analysis of the costs of marginal conventional generation given the historical probability distribution of natural gas prices, the cost of wind energy, wind integration costs, transmission costs for wind energy, the capacity value of wind, and environmental benefits of wind energy for a hypothetical utility in the Southwestern United States. The efficacy of using wind energy as a hedge at a particular utility will depend on site specific conditions

Oil price volatility, financial regulation and energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevalier, J.M.

2010-01-01

In October of 2009, the French Ministry of Economy asked the author to chair a work group on oil price volatility. The report resulting from that work was submitted to the minister on February 9, 2010. Based on the report, this article focuses on three major elements: (i) the operation of the oil market, with interacting physical basics and financial basics (ii) financial market regulation, more specifically commodities-derived product markets and current work in that area and (iii) the lessons one can draw from that exercise in terms of energy policy. Significant projects have been initiated on global, European and national levels. (author)

The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radchenko, Stanislav

2005-01-01

Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

Tomorrow's Energy Prices: An Analysis of System, Actors and Shaping Factors. Crude price drop and its consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevalier, Jean-Marie; Chauvin, Dominique

2017-01-01

If one sector in recent decades has been a byword for how difficult it is to anticipate future developments at the global level, it has been the energy sector. We have seen fears over the dangers of a hydrocarbon shortage, the announcement of 'peak oil' and a boom in shale gas and oil. Forecasts based on major trends within the field have been revised as non-conventional sources with a substantial impact on price levels have emerged. Added to this is the need to confront climate change and hence to revamp our modes of energy production to give an enhanced role to renewables. In such a context, as Jean-Marie Chevalier stresses here, it is quite tricky to say how energy prices will develop or how energy production systems will change. This is why, in addition to the overview of possible developments in the prices of oil, natural gas and coal which this article provides, it particularly stresses the many elements of uncertainty that still prevail. Chevalier demonstrates the multiplicity of factors - and actor - involved in the way energy systems and prices develop and highlights the key elements that will play a role in enhancing or curbing those developments in the medium-to-long term. (author)

Pricing and Capacity Planning Problems in Energy Transmission Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Villumsen, Jonas Christoffer

strategy. In the Nordic electricity system a market with zonal prices is adopted. We consider the problem of designing zones in an optimal way explicitly considering uncertainty. Finally, we formulate the integrated problem of pipeline capacity expansion planning and transmission pricing in natural gas...... necessitates a radical change in the way we plan and operate energy systems. Another paradigm change which began in the 1990’s for electricity systems is that of deregulation. This has led to a variety of different market structures implemented across the world. In this thesis we discuss capacity planning...... and transmission pricing problems in energy transmission networks. Although the modelling framework applies to energy networks in general, most of the applications discussed concern the transmission of electricity. A number of the problems presented involves transmission switching, which allows the operator...

The turning black tide : energy prices and the Canadian dollar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Issa, R.; Lafrance, R.; Murray, J.

2008-01-01

This paper examined the relationship between energy prices and the Canadian-United States dollar real exchange rate. The researchers evaluated the standard Amano-van Norden (AvN) equation formulated to demonstrate that higher real energy prices lead to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Major developments in the Canadian energy market were discussed, as well as policy initiatives designed to address Canada's trade balance by increasing energy exports. The study examined the AvN equation using Monte Carlo experiments to determine the parameter stability of the equation. Results indicated that the co-integrating relationship in the standard AvN equation were no longer supported. Structural break tests were used to demonstrate that major changes in Canada's energy policies and cross-border trade and investment strategies have led to an increase in the Canadian dollar's value when energy prices are high. The study presented a new equation designed to account for Canadian dollar's appreciation since 2003. It was concluded that net energy exports in the 1990s outweighed the negatives associated with Canada's energy-intensive production processes. 39 refs., 6 tabs., 10 figs

Energy transition. A complete view on costs, performance, flexibility and prices of energies - Journal nr 11

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boncorps, Jean-Claude; Larzilliere, Marc; Bomo, Nicole; Bruder, Michel; Buscailhon, Jean-Marie; Cappe, Daniel; DobiaS, Georges; Fregere, Jean-Pierre; Garipuy, Yves; Hougueres, Gerard; Martin, Jean-Loup; Mollard, Dominique; Moncomble, Jean-Eudes; Wiltz, Bruno; Roudier, Jacques

2013-02-01

This publication aims at proposing information on the issues of energy prices, of energy production costs and of energy delivery costs, and at showing their complexity while clearing up some wrong ideas about them. After an introduction on the addressed problematic, on information sources and on uncertainties, the authors give a general overview of the definitions of a cost, of a price, of primary, secondary and final energies, of user diversity and energy demand variation in time, of energy production variations in time, and present energy taxing in France and in the European Union, the CO 2 market, and energy savings in France in various sectors (transports, buildings, industry). Then, they address the various primary energies (coal, oil, natural gas, biomass, geothermal heat, thermal solar) and secondary energies (nuclear, hydroelectricity, ground-based wind energy, renewable sea energies, geothermal electricity, electricity grids, heat networks and co-generation) and discuss for each or some of them issues like: world market, costs and pricing, perspectives, resources and constraints, technologies

Energy prices, technological knowledge and green energy innovation. A dynamic panel analysis of patent counts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruse, Juergen; Wetzel, Heike; Koeln Univ.

2014-01-01

We examine the effect of energy prices and technological knowledge on innovation in green energy technologies. In doing so, we consider both demand-pull effects, which induce innovative activity by increasing the expected value of innovations, and technology-push effects, which drive innovative activity by extending the technological capability of an economy. Our analysis is conducted using patent data from the European Patent Office on a panel of 26 OECD countries over the period 1978-2009. Utilizing a dynamic count data model for panel data, we analyze 11 distinct green energy technologies. Our results indicate that the existing knowledge stock is a significant driver of green energy innovation for all technologies. Furthermore, the results suggest that energy prices have a positive impact on innovation for some but not all technologies and that the e.ect of energy prices and technological knowledge on green energy innovation becomes more pronounced after the Kyoto protocol agreement in 1997.

The energy price equivalence of carbon taxes and emissions trading—Theory and evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiu, Fan-Ping; Kuo, Hsiao-I.; Chen, Chi-Chung; Hsu, Chia-Sheng

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The price equivalence of carbon taxes and emissions trading from theoretical and empirical models are developed. • The theoretical findings show that the price effects of these two schemes depend on the market structures. • Energy prices under a carbon tax is lower than an issions trading in an imperfectly competitive market. • A case study from Taiwan gasoline market is applied here. - Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to estimate the energy price equivalence of carbon taxes and emissions trading in an energy market. To this end, both the carbon tax and emissions trading systems are designed in the theoretical model, while alternative market structures are taken into consideration. The theoretical findings show that the economic effects of these two schemes on energy prices depend on the market structures. Energy prices are equivalent between these two schemes given the same amount of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) reduction when the market structure is characterized by perfect competition. However, energy prices will be lower when a carbon tax is introduced than when emissions trading is implemented in an imperfectly competitive market, which implies that the price effects of a carbon tax and emissions trading depend on the energy market structure. Such a theoretical basis is applied to the market for gasoline in Taiwan. The empirical results indicate that the gasoline prices under a carbon tax are lower than under emissions trading. This implies that the structure of the energy market needs to be examined when a country seeks to reduce its GHGE through the implementation of either a carbon tax or emissions trading.

Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO2 price and global energy transition. A general equilibrium approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Smeers, Yves; Pierru, Axel

2010-01-01

The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO 2 emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO 2 price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO 2 policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO 2 emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a hard cap or a soft cap. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories - with two branches after 2020 - for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO 2 emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO 2 emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios. (author)

China's coal price disturbances: Observations, explanations, and implications for global energy economies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Chi-Jen; Xuan, Xiaowei; Jackson, Robert B.

2012-01-01

Since China decontrolled coal prices, its coal price has risen steadily and been unusually volatile. In 2011 in particular, high coal prices and capped electricity prices in China discouraged coal-fired power generation, triggering widespread power shortages. We suggest that these coal-price disturbances could be symptomatic of a major change in pricing dynamics of global fossil-fuel markets, with increasing correspondence between coal and oil prices globally. Historically, global coal prices have been more stable and lower than oil and natural gas prices on a per-heat basis. In recent years, however, coal prices have been increasingly volatile worldwide and have tracked other fossil fuel prices more closely. Meanwhile, the recent development of unconventional gas has substantially decoupled US natural gas and oil prices. Technically, low US natural gas prices, with potential fuel switching, could drive US domestic coal prices lower. However, this effect is unlikely to counteract the overall trend in increasing coal consumption globally. China's market size and unique, partially-controlled energy system make its reform agenda a key force in the global economy. Policymakers in the US, E.U. and elsewhere should monitor China's economic reform agenda to anticipate and respond to changes accompanying China's increasing importance in the global energy economy. - Highlights: ► Since China decontrolled its coal prices, the price of coal has risen steadily in China, accompanied by unusual volatility. ► Relatively high and volatile coal prices have triggered widespread power shortages in China. ► Coal and oil prices have already become, and continue to become, more closely linked globally. ► China's demand will likely drive up global coal prices and make them as volatile as that of other fossil fuels. ► Policymakers should monitor China's economic reform agenda to anticipate and respond to changes in the global energy economy.

A theoretical analysis of price elasticity of energy demand in multistage energy conversion systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowe, R.

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is an analytical exploration of the problem of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems. The paper describes in some detail an analytical model of energy demand in such systems. Under a clearly stated set of assumptions, the model makes it possible to explore both the impacts of the number of sub-systems, and of varying sub-system elasticities on overall system elasticity. The analysis suggests that overall price elasticity of energy demand for such systems will tend asymptotically to unity as the number of sub-systems increases. (author)

Structural Break, Stock Prices of Clean Energy Firms and Carbon Market

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yubao; Cai, Junyu

2018-03-01

This paper uses EU ETS carbon future price and Germany/UK clean energy firms stock indices to study the relationship between carbon market and clean energy market. By structural break test, it is found that the ‘non-stationary’ variables judged by classical unit root test do own unit roots and need taking first difference. After analysis of VAR and Granger causality test, no causal relationships are found between the two markets. However, when Hsiao’s version of causality test is employed, carbon market is found to have power in explaining the movement of stock prices of clean energy firms, and stock prices of clean energy firms also affect the carbon market.

Price-structure of electricity and district-heating. A background study for energy conservation programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The present report deals with the pricing and price-structure of electricity and district-heating with their effects on energy saving. It constitutes part of the groundwork for the new Government Energy Conservation Programme. The report describes principles for the pricing of electricity and district-heating in Finland, and gives some examples of tariffs in foreign countries, which are interesting from the point of view of energy saving. Different utilities apply quite similar pricing principles but there are big differences in price levels between the utilities. The difference in consumer prices can be almost 100 % in the case of electricity and over 150 % as concerns district-heating. The change in retail prices in the last ten years has not had a big general impact on the consumption of electricity or on energy saving. On the other hand, when the price increases of individual utilities are studied, the impact on energy saving at least in the short term can be seen. It seems that an increase of the fixed charges in relation to energy rates has been as a general trend after 1990. To promote energy saving the changing energy rates should be given special emphasis in determining electricity and district-heating tariffs. The opening of the electricity market means that the electricity suppliers face a new situation also when pricing their products. Customers and their expectations will play an increasingly role. (orig.)

The price of energy efficiency in the Spanish housing market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayala, Amaia de; Galarraga, Ibon; Spadaro, Joseph V.

2016-01-01

The housing sector is a substantial consumer of energy, and therefore a focus for energy savings efforts. The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), introduced in 2002 and revised in 2010, is a key instrument to increase the energy performance of buildings across the European Union. Following the implementation of the EPBD into Spanish law, all properties offered for sale or rented out in Spain are required to have an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC). Given that the implementation of the EPC scheme for new, existing and advertised properties is still very low in Spain, unlike other European housing markets, the Spanish one lacks market data on energy efficiency (EE) labels and their impact on housing price. To overcome this gap, we determine the EE ratings of a sample of 1507 homes across Spain on the basis of information collected previously through household surveys. This allowed us to answer the question of whether or not, and to what extent, Spanish housing markets capitalise the value of EE. We apply the hedonic-price technique and observe that more energy efficient dwellings have a price-premium between 5.4% and 9.8% compared to those with the same characteristics but lower EE level. - Highlights: •The Spanish housing market lacks data on energy efficiency (EE) labels. •We determine the EE ratings of a sample of 1507 homes across Spain. •Homes labelled A, B and C account for less than 10% of the housing stock. •Energy efficient dwellings have a price-premium between 5.4% and 9.8%, ceteris paribus.

Current situation of wind energy in the world and Turkey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alper Kaplan, Yusuf; San, Ismail [Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Anadolu University (Turkey)], email: yakaplan@anadolu.edu.tr, email: isan@anadolu.edu.tr

2011-07-01

This paper gives an overview of the current situation of wind power in Turkey and in the world by evaluating installed wind power using current data. It also looks at the political conditions of Turkey in relation to the current installed wind energy power in Turkey compared with that of certain developed countries. The problems encountered are also illustrated as a basis for proposing solutions. Turkey's wind energy potential is 48,000 MW but installed wind power was only 1,329 MW as of 2011. Wind energy is at present one of the most cost-competitive renewable energy technologies in the world when technical, geographical and social issues are taken into consideration. Economic sources should be researched. The development of current potential and the market entry of renewable energy resources requires a legal and regulatory framework that support suitable mechanisms. Local support is recommended together with tax exemptions. Long-term fixed-price guarantees should also be considered by government.

Relationships among energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy: evidence from China.

Science.gov (United States)

Cong, Rong-Gang; Shen, Shaochuan

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market "underreacting." The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market.

The turning black tide : energy prices and the Canadian dollar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Issa, R.; Lafrance, R.; Murray, J. [Bank of Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2008-08-15

This paper examined the relationship between energy prices and the Canadian-United States dollar real exchange rate. The researchers evaluated the standard Amano-van Norden (AvN) equation formulated to demonstrate that higher real energy prices lead to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Major developments in the Canadian energy market were discussed, as well as policy initiatives designed to address Canada's trade balance by increasing energy exports. The study examined the AvN equation using Monte Carlo experiments to determine the parameter stability of the equation. Results indicated that the co-integrating relationship in the standard AvN equation were no longer supported. Structural break tests were used to demonstrate that major changes in Canada's energy policies and cross-border trade and investment strategies have led to an increase in the Canadian dollar's value when energy prices are high. The study presented a new equation designed to account for Canadian dollar's appreciation since 2003. It was concluded that net energy exports in the 1990s outweighed the negatives associated with Canada's energy-intensive production processes. 39 refs., 6 tabs., 10 figs.

Water: The Only Factor Influencing the Price of Energy in the Spot Market?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinicius Mothé Maia

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The Brazilian electric energy generation system is based on its hydroelectric power plants, making the country dependent on proper rainfall and, thus, raising the possibility of energy stress situations, such as the energy-rationing scenario observed in the beginning of the century and the latest water crisis (2014. Moments of water scarcity are followed by an increase in energy prices, which affects the economy as whole. Therefore, it is relevant to understand which factors in the Brazilian Electric System affect the energy price and the individual importance of each. This paper aimed to analyze which the key variables influencing the energy price in the spot market are by using official data from the National Electric System Operator. The used data was from the period July/2001 to July/2014, which was employed in a multiple regression methodology along with time series. The results suggest an inverse relationship between the natural flow of rivers (directly related to rainfall and the energy price. Moreover, they also point to an inverse relationship between the potential energy stored in reservoirs as water and the energy price.

Energy intensities and the impact of high energy prices on producing and consuming sectors in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

2007-01-01

The increase in oil prices has put pressure on the global economy. Even economies that have a high degree of self-sufficiency concerning oil products are experiencing rising production costs and price increases for households energy use. Therefore, changes in energy policies are under consideration for countries highly dependent on imported energy as well as countries with a high degree of self-sufficiency. Examination of dependence on cheap energy sources for economic growth in different...

The response of the Beijing carbon emissions allowance price (BJC) to macroeconomic and energy price indices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeng, Shihong; Nan, Xin; Liu, Chao; Chen, Jiuying

2017-01-01

In 2013, China opened pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven provinces, where carbon emission allowances have now been traded for more than two years. In this paper, we employ a structural VAR model and the price of the Beijing carbon emission allowance to study the dynamic relationships among the price of the carbon emission allowance, economic development and the price of energy. This paper's data cover the period from April 2, 2014 to November 6, 2015. This paper provides information that will be helpful to both investors and governmental policy makers. The results show that (1) an increase of one standard deviation in the coal price leads to an initial increase of approximately 0.1% in the Beijing carbon price. After 2 days, there is a decrease of less than 0.1%, and the price gradually increases by approximately 0.1% after 30 days; (2) the price of the Beijing carbon emission allowance is mainly affected by its own historical price; (3) the Beijing carbon emission allowance price, crude oil price, natural gas price and economic development have positive – albeit non-significant – correlations. - Highlights: • This paper examines the response of the Beijing carbon emission allowance price. • A rise in coal prices will have different effects in different lag stages. • There are positive correlations between the BJC and economic development.

Regional Differences in the Price-Elasticity of Demand for Energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernstein, M. A.; Griffin, J.

2006-02-01

At the request of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the RAND Corporation examined the relationship between energy demand and energy prices with the focus on whether the relationships between demand and price differ if these are examined at different levels of data resolution. In this case, RAND compares national, regional, state, and electric utility levels of data resolution. This study is intended as a first step in helping NREL understand the impact that spatial disaggregation of data can have on estimating the impacts of their programs. This report should be useful to analysts in NREL and other national laboratories, as well as to policy nationals at the national level. It may help them understand the complex relationships between demand and price and how these might vary across different locations in the United States.

Energy price spread as a driving force for combined generation investments: A view on Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kavvadias, K.C.

2016-01-01

Combined generation of heat, cooling and power has a large potential to increase its share in distributed generation of energy. Such investments are driven by energy savings which result to operational profits. These profits are very sensitive to the prices of the competitive energy products: electricity and gas. In this work a theoretical indicator is developed between energy prices, the technical characteristics of cogeneration and conventional generation equipment and the investment viability. Through this indicator, the operational profitability of cogeneration equipment is mapped and discussed. Empirical rules are extracted which can give a clear view of the sensitivity of energy prices on energy efficiency investments. The European cogeneration status quo is analyzed in terms of energy prices and market share. The developed indicator is also used, to analyze market related barriers and highlight the importance of energy pricing policy as a tool to minimize the risk exposure of energy efficiency investments. - Highlights: • Energy price spread of competitive fuels affects combined generation profitability. • Its uncertainty is the most important barrier for new investments. • The minimum energy price spread had been generalized and mathematically justified. • Can be used as a tax-based mechanism to hedge the risk of fuel price fluctuations. • For a typical installation, power has to be at least 2 times more expensive than gas.

A study of pricing and trading model of Blockchain & Big data-based Energy-Internet electricity

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Tao; He, Qingsu; Nie, Erbao; Chen, Shaozhen

2018-01-01

The development of Energy-Internet is currently suffering from a series of issues, such as the conflicts among high capital requirement, low-cost, high efficiency, the spreading gap between capital demand and supply, as well as the lagged trading & valuation mechanism, any of which would hinder Energy-Internet's evolution. However, with the development of Blockchain and big-data technology, it is possible to work out solutions for these issues. Based on current situation of Energy-Internet and its requirements for future progress, this paper demonstrates the validity of employing blockchain technology to solve the problems encountered by Energy-Internet during its development. It proposes applying the blockchain and big-data technologies to pricing and trading energy products through Energy-Internet and to accomplish cyber-based energy or power's transformation from physic products to financial assets.

The impact of high energy prices in Central American households

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cuesta, Ana; Manzano, Osmel

2010-09-15

Central American countries have one the highest energy costs in Latin America. We look at the potential social impact of higher energy prices using household data. Depending on a portfolio of characteristics, higher energy prices could have significant impact on the poor purchasing power. In countries like Guatemala, the poorest could see a higher impact than the richest. In Mexico and Panama, the impact is higher for the 'lower middle class'. We measure indirect effects of lack of energy sources, we conclude that children that live in households that cook with fossil fuels are subject to attend less to school.

The impact of high energy prices in Central American households

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cuesta, Ana; Manzano, Osmel

2010-09-15

Central American countries have one the highest energy costs in Latin America. We look at the potential social impact of higher energy prices using household data. Depending on a portfolio of characteristics, higher energy prices could have significant impact on the poor purchasing power. In countries like Guatemala, the poorest could see a higher impact than the richest. In Mexico and Panama, the impact is higher for the 'lower middle class'. We measure indirect effects of lack of energy sources, we conclude that children that live in households that cook with fossil fuels are subject to attend less to school.

Energy intensities and the impact of high energy prices on producing and consuming sectors in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

2007-01-01

The increase in oil prices has put pressure on the global economy. Even economies that have a high degree of self-sufficiency concerning oil products are experiencing rising production costs and price increases for households energy use. Therefore, changes in energy policies are under consideration for countries highly dependent on imported energy as well as countries with a high degree of self-sufficiency. Examination of dependence on cheap energy sources for economic growth in different eco...

Principles, effects and problems of differential power pricing policy for energy intensive industries in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Boqiang; Liu, Jianghua

2011-01-01

The Chinese government canceled the preferential power pricing policies for energy intensive industries and imposed a reverse differential pricing policy in order to promote energy efficiency and the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure. This article analyzes the principles of China's differential power pricing policy, the externalities of energy and the modified Ramsey pricing rule, and also points out the policy implications of China's differential power pricing policy. In our samples, we investigate eight power intensive products in the Henan province with respect to their power consumption per unit (power intensity), electricity cost, total cost, the electricity tariff and profit, in order to test the effects of the differential power pricing policy. The results show that the primary effect of the differential power pricing policy is that enterprises decrease their total costs and improve their productive efficiencies in advance, in anticipating a higher electricity tariff. -- Research highlights: → The article suggests a modified Ramsey pricing model where demand elasticity is replaced by elasticity of energy consumption and polluting elasticity to internalize the negative externality of high energy intensive industry. → The article assesses the effects of differential pricing policy through on-site survey of high energy intensive industries in Henan province and analyzes the reasons behind those effects. → The article presents the lessons and policy implications of implementing differential pricing policy aimed at energy conservation and emission reduction.

Energy prices in the presence of plant indivisibilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, Ronald; Serra, Pablo

2003-01-01

In several countries (Chile, Bolivia, Argentina and Peru, among others), power plants are dispatched according to merit order, i.e. based on the marginal operating costs of the plants. In this scheme, the operating plant with the highest marginal cost sets the spot price at which firms trade the energy required to fulfill their contracts. The underlying peak-load pricing model assumes that plants can operate at any level up to capacity, whereas real power plants have minimum operating levels. This implies that a low cost plant might have to reduce its supply in order to accommodate the minimum operating level of a more expensive power plant. This paper derives the welfare maximizing price rules in this case and shows that the standard peak-load pricing rules no longer apply

Volatility in energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffie, D.

1999-01-01

This chapter with 58 references reviews the modelling and empirical behaviour of volatility in energy prices. Constant volatility and stochastic volatility are discussed. Markovian models of stochastic volatility are described and the different classes of Markovian stochastic volatility model are examined including auto-regressive volatility, option implied and forecasted volatility, Garch volatility, Egarch volatility, multivariate Garch volatility, and stochastic volatility and dynamic hedging policies. Other volatility models and option hedging are considered. The performance of several stochastic volatility models as applied to heating oil, light oil, natural gas, electricity and light crude oil are compared

Oil prices, nuclear energy consumption, and economic growth: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chien-Chiang; Chiu, Yi-Bin

2011-01-01

This paper applies panel data analysis to examine the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships among nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, oil consumption, and economic growth for developed countries covering the period 1971-2006. The panel cointegration results show that in the long run, oil prices have a positive impact on nuclear energy consumption, suggesting the existence of the substitution relationship between nuclear energy and oil. The long-run elasticity of nuclear energy with respect to real income is approximately 0.89, and real income has a greater impact on nuclear energy than do oil prices in the long run. Furthermore, the panel causality results find evidence of unidirectional causality running from oil prices and economic growth to nuclear energy consumption in the long run, while there is no causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in the short run. - Research highlights: → We examine the relationship among nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, oil consumption, and economic growth for developed countries. → The existence of the substitution relationship between nuclear energy and oil. → Real income has a greater impact on nuclear energy than do oil prices in the long run. → An unidirectional causality running from oil prices and economic growth to nuclear energy consumption in the long run.

The impact of intermittently renewable energy on Italian wholesale electricity prices: Additional benefits or additional costs?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gullì, Francesco; Balbo, Antonio Lo

2015-01-01

Most studies of the literature find that the development of renewable energy sources determines a decrease in the wholesale prices. Some authors use this finding to state that the current subsidies for renewable technologies cannot be considered as excessive. By carrying out a hybrid analysis (both simulation and ex-post empirical analyses) of the case of photovoltaic energy in Italy, this article demonstrates that this result cannot be generalised. Under market power, an increase in PV production can provide benefits in terms of a wholesale price decrease only beyond a specific threshold and especially if combined with other effects. Otherwise, it is likely that PV development could imply an increase in prices. Therefore, on the one hand, caution is necessary when using the estimated change in wholesale prices to evaluate the net cost for consumers of the supporting policies for renewables: either the simulation-based models or the full empirical analyses may be misleading. On the other hand, if 'decarbonisation' is the main objective, the energy policies should be designed in order to assure a deep and balanced penetration of the clean technologies, regardless of their estimated transitory impact on wholesale prices (and in the meantime reviewing the organisation of power markets). -- Highlights: •We use a hybrid analysis based on a combined approach (both simulation and ex-post empirical analyses). •There is a critical threshold of RES penetration within which prices may increase. •Price increases are more likely with PV rather than with wind power. •Either the simulation models or the full empirical analyses may be misleading. •Caution is necessary when using the results of these analyses for policy decisions

On the importance of commodity and energy price shocks for the macroeconomy

Science.gov (United States)

Edelstein, Paul S.

Although higher commodity prices are commonly thought to presage higher rates of inflation, the existing literature suggests that the predictive power of commodity prices for inflation has waned since the 1980s. In the first chapter, I show that this result can be overturned using state-of-the-art forecast combination methods. Moreover, commodity prices are shown to contain predictive information not contained in the leading principal components of a broad set of macroeconomic and financial variables. These improved inflation forecasts are of little value, however, for predicting actual Fed policy decisions. The remaining two chapters study the effect of energy price shocks on U.S. consumer and business expenditures. In the second chapter, I show that there is no statistical support for the presence of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price increases and decreases. This finding has important implications for empirical and theoretical models of the transmission of energy price shocks. I then quantify the direct effect on real consumption of (1) unanticipated changes in discretionary income, (2) shifts in precautionary savings, and (3) changes in the operating cost of energy-using durables. Finally, I trace the declining importance of energy price shocks relative to the 1970s to changes in the composition of U.S. automobile production and the declining overall importance of the U.S. automobile sector. An alternative source of asymmetry is the response of nonresidential fixed investment to energy price shocks. In the third chapter, I show that the apparent asymmetry in the estimated responses of business fixed investment in equipment and structures is largely an artifact (1) of the aggregation of mining-related expenditures by the oil, natural gas, and coal mining industry and all other expenditures, and (2) of ignoring an exogenous shift in investment caused by the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Once symmetry is imposed and miningrelated expenditures

A Study on strengthening demand management of energy price

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seo, Jung Hwan [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-02-01

Until 1980s, energy sector had been operated as a monopoly of public enterprises in most countries. Price regulation of government had an influence on energy supply and demand by not fully giving information on market situation (supply and demand). Recently, as energy related technology and information technology have developed, the developed countries including UK and some developing countries could raise efficiency of industry through competitive market by recognizing the limit of government regulation and opening up many sectors of energy industry to the private sector. Korea is also implementing a measure for introducing competition through the participation of private sector into electricity and natural gas industries step by step. If the private sector is participated and competition is introduced, energy price cannot be a policy instrument setting up by the government, so demand management through price regulation is meaningless. Under such circumstances, a policy function should be converted to the direction of promoting competition and increasing market efficiency. In this study, it examines how the government regulation and industry has been changed through the transition of natural gas and electricity industries in UK, USA, and France and then it tries to derive suggestions to Korea. (author). 49 refs., 58 figs., 32 tabs.

Rise of energy prices: why and up to how much?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maillard, D.; Gonnot, F.M.

2004-01-01

This article is a presentation given by D. Maillard, general director of the general direction of energy and raw materials (DGEMP) of the French ministry of economy, finances and industry (Minefi), at the occasion of a colloquium held in Paris on December 8, 2004, and organised by the energy and development club. In his talk, D. Maillard explains the reasons of the rise of energy prices in 2004: international factors (volatility of the oil and gas markets) and European factors (liberalization and re-structuration of the electricity market, spot prices, increase of demand). (J.S.)

State energy price projections for the residential sector, 1992--1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The purpose of this report, State Energy Price Projections for the Residential Sector, 1992--1993, is to provide projections of State-level residential prices for 1992 and 1993 for the following fuels: electricity, natural gas, heating oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, and coal. Prices for 1991 are also included for comparison purposes. This report also explains the methodology used to produce these estimates and the limitations

Estimating the Value of Price Risk Reduction in Energy Efficiency Investments in Buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pekka Tuominen

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calculating the value of price risk reduction to a consumer that can be achieved with investments in energy efficiency. The value of price risk reduction is discussed to some length in general terms in the literature reviewed but, so far, no methodology for calculating the value has been presented. Here we suggest such a method. The problem of valuating price risk reduction is approached using a variation of the Black–Scholes model by considering a hypothetical financial instrument that a consumer would purchase to insure herself against unexpected price hikes. This hypothetical instrument is then compared with an actual energy efficiency investment that reaches the same level of price risk reduction. To demonstrate the usability of the method, case examples are calculated for typical single-family houses in Finland. The results show that the price risk entailed in household energy consumption can be reduced by a meaningful amount with energy efficiency investments, and that the monetary value of this reduction can be calculated. It is argued that this often-overlooked benefit of energy efficiency investments merits more consideration in future studies.

The impact of intermittent sources of energy on the market price of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adigbli, Patrick; Mahuet, Audrey

2013-01-01

Parallel to liberalization of the electricity market, these past twenty years have been marked by a strong expansion of renewable energy in Europe. The increasing share of renewables in the energy mix - with a goal set by the European Commission at 20% by 2020 - has an impact on market prices. In the short run, subsidized intermittent energy may lead to lower prices or even to negative prices during certain periods of the year

Unfair and excessive prices in the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Woude, M.

2008-01-01

The concept of competition refers to a process where firms dispute the favour of their customers by proposing better products at the lowest possible price. This consumer welfare creating process is to a large extent Darwinian in nature: those who cannot compete must die. The law of supply and demand is ruthless and so is competition law. Principles of fairness and justice are extraneous to competition law: the lion eats the deer. Still, EC competition law is not amoral, as illustrated by the very first example of abusive conduct given by Article 82 EC: 'directly or indirectly imposing unfair purchase or selling prices or other unfair trading conditions' can constitute an abuse. The concept of fairness as a constituent element of EC competition law may disturb those who analyze the competitive process through a scientific lens. Fairness does not relate to economic effects and cannot be measured or quantified. It is a concept that appeals to ethics and norms. The dichotomy between competition as an amoral welfare creating process, that can be the subject of economic research, and the normative concept of fairness does not necessarily lead to a contradiction. Fairness becomes relevant where the competitive process has ceased to play its welfare creating role: i.e. where monopolies prevail over perfect competition. When confronted to a monopoly, abstention is the customer's only choice and for some goods, such as food, clothing and housing, abstention is not considered as a realistic choice. In scenarios where the monopolist faces an inelastic demand curve, fairness is probably the customer's only safety buoy. The energy sector is one of the sectors where these situations occur. In our modern societies, customers expect the light to go on, when they turn the switch, and their houses to be heated, when activating their boilers. Candles and jumpers not offering realistic alternatives, demand is close to inelastic, at least on the short term. Moreover, the energy sector

The Hurst exponent in energy futures prices

Science.gov (United States)

Serletis, Apostolos; Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam

2007-07-01

This paper extends the work in Elder and Serletis [Long memory in energy futures prices, Rev. Financial Econ., forthcoming, 2007] and Serletis et al. [Detrended fluctuation analysis of the US stock market, Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos, forthcoming, 2007] by re-examining the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, it uses daily data on energy futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, over the period from July 2, 1990 to November 1, 2006, and a statistical physics approach-the ‘detrending moving average’ technique-providing a reliable framework for testing the information efficiency in financial markets as shown by Alessio et al. [Second-order moving average and scaling of stochastic time series, Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 197-200] and Carbone et al. [Time-dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Physica A 344 (2004) 267-271; Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys. Rev. E 69 (2004) 026105]. The results show that energy futures returns display long memory and that the particular form of long memory is anti-persistence.

A theoretical analysis of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowe, Robert

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is an analytical exploration of the problem of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems. The paper describes in some detail an analytical model of energy demand in such systems. Under a clearly stated set of assumptions, the model makes it possible to explore both the impacts of the number of sub-systems, and of varying sub-system elasticities on overall system elasticity. The analysis suggests that overall price elasticity of energy demand for such systems will tend asymptotically to unity as the number of sub-systems increases

Promoting nuclear energy: market price or regulated tariffs? - 5042

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Percebois, J.

2015-01-01

Because of its negative effects, the scheme for aiding renewable energies presently in force in Europe is likely to penalise investments in nuclear energy. The F.I.T. system is a costly mechanism and a source of perverse effects as a switching of the merit order curve on the spot electricity market (with sometimes negative prices). Restoring an equity and 'equal opportunity' for nuclear energy in Europe needs to implement a 'Contract for Differences' scheme for nuclear energy, like the model now gaining favour in the U.K. The contract for differences signed between EDF and the UK government means that if the wholesale price that EDF secures for Hinckley's power falls below the index-linked preset value, the difference will be covered by payments from the UK government. It appears that nuclear power has weakened in Europe by the system of guaranteed purchase prices for renewable energies. Moreover this system is costly. New fairer rules must be implemented in the market. Either the market is left on its own to send the signals to all investors (including renewable energies), or a minimum of regulation is introduced in order to limit the costly surges of under and over capacity. But in the latter case it is necessary to treat all the energy sources in an equal way and guarantee the nuclear industry that it will also recover its fixed costs over the long term)

Managing Interactions Between Carbon Pricing and Existing Energy Policies. Guidance for Policymakers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hood, Christina

2013-07-01

Carbon pricing can be a key policy tool to help countries move their energy sectors onto a cleaner development path. One important issue to consider when introducing carbon pricing is how it will integrate with other energy policies that also reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including policies to support low-carbon technologies (such as renewable energy) and energy efficiency programmes. Poor policy integration can undermine energy security and affordability, and affect the performance of renewable energy policies and energy markets. Climate objectives can also be undermined, through low and uncertain carbon prices and the risk of stop-start policy. Understanding how to manage policy interactions can improve the climate and energy policy package, reducing the trade-offs and advancing the synergies between energy and climate objectives. This will benefit the country in terms of a more effective and lower-cost low-carbon development path, as well as supporting a more energy-secure future.

The Clean-Development Mechanism, stochastic permit prices and energy investments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hieronymi, Philipp; Schüller, David

2015-01-01

We analyze the impact on energy investments stemming from different emission permit classes, by considering permits that are allocated inside the European Emission Trading Scheme and secondary Certified Emission Reduction (sCER) permits originating from the Clean Development Mechanism. One price taking firm which is subject to emission regulation has the choice to invest in gas or wind power plant. The firm faces uncertainty regarding stochastically evolving permit prices, while it receives a premium on the electricity price for wind energy. As a first step, we determine the value of the option to invest into a gas power plant over time. Then, we calculate the investment probability of a gas power investment in a range of policy scenarios. We find that allowing the usage of sCER permits in the present policy framework has a positive impact on gas power investment. Decoupling the price processes has a similar effect. If the quota of sCER permits is doubled, the decrease in the investment probability for wind power is large. We carry out sensitivity tests for different parameter values, and find that investment behavior changes significantly with differing interest rates, the wind energy premium and volatility. - Highlights: • We model the impact of two CO 2 permit classes on energy investments. • We present a real-options framework accounting for uncertainty. • Clean Development Mechanism permits have a negative influence on investment into renewable energy. • Interest rate and volatility values have a strong impact on the results

Renewable energies and their effect on electricity prices: the case of the German nuclear phase-out

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Comtesse, Daniel; Schroeer, Sebastian

2010-07-01

plants. The price effect therefore highly depends on the cost structure of the back-up power plants. In our article we use the example of the nuclear-phase out in Germany. This analysis is particularly in the current economic and political context relevant: while on the one hand in Germany, a country committed so far to a nuclear phase-out until 2020, the new government seems to reconsider this initial plan, on the other hand, worldwide we experience a fall in the share of nuclear power plants - with more nuclear power plants being closed than new ones build. Data and methodology Our analysis of price effects is based on spot market outcomes. Though only a minority of the market volume is traded at the spot markets, spot market prices have a strong impact on future transactions and bilateral contracts. In line with this idea, spot market prices are a good measurement for price effects. We use a basic spot market model, where the merit-order supply function aggregates different energy sources according to their marginal cost. This leads to an upward sloping supply function. We model the supply side by a stylized power plant fleet using International Energy Agency (IEA) data on marginal costs. Since in reality consumers can not change their usage grid and do not change their behaviour in the short run, the demand function is for simplicity assumed to be perfectly inelastic. We use data of the European Energy Exchange (EEX) on an hourly basis to model electricity demand. Based on comparative statics, we develop different scenarios and check for different base load capacities of renewable energies. The basic assumption of all scenarios is the substitutability of nuclear power plants by renewable energy sources. In order to show the effects of a nuclear phaseout against fluctuations of base load capacity of renewable energies, several back-up scenarios for base load capacity with other energy sources are developed. These scenarios contain extreme case settings in order to

Energy Aware Pricing in a Three-Tiered Cloud Service Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Debdeep Paul

2016-09-01

Full Text Available We consider a three-tiered cloud service market and propose an energy efficient pricing strategy in this market. Here, the end customers are served by the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS providers, who implement customized services for their customers. To host these services, these SaaS providers, in turn, lease the infrastructure related resources from the Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS or Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS providers. In this paper, we propose and evaluate a mechanism for pricing between SaaS providers and Iaas/PaaS providers and between SaaS providers and the end customers. The pricing scheme is designed in a way such that the integration of renewable energy is promoted, which is a very crucial aspect of energy efficiency. Thereafter, we propose a technique to strategically provide an improved Quality of Service (QoS by deploying more resources than what is computed by the optimization procedure. This technique is based on the square root staffing law in queueing theory. We carry out numerical evaluations with real data traces on electricity price, renewable energy generation, workload, etc., in order to emulate the real dynamics of the cloud service market. We demonstrate that, under practical assumptions, the proposed technique can generate more profit for the service providers operating in the cloud service market.

Contribution of price/expenditure factors of residential energy consumption in China from 1993 to 2011: A decomposition analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Zengming; Zhao, Tao

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Analysis about energy prices and the residential expenditure on energy in China. • Though the prices of energy declined, the price effect was negative. • The effect of price was the strongest restraining contribution. • Discussion on the proportion of energy expenditure in residential incomes. - Abstract: Since the establishment of the market economy in 1993, the residential consumption of commodities, including energy, has been highly influenced by prices in China. However, the contribution of the factors related to prices in residential energy consumption is relatively unexplored. This paper extends the KAYA identity with price and expenditure factors and then applies the LMDI method to a decomposition of residential energy consumption in China from 1993 to 2011. Our results show the following: (1) Though the prices of a majority of residential energy sources in China declined, the effect of energy prices restrained residential energy consumption because the expenditure structure changed during the period. (2) During the research period, the urban energy expenditure proportion experienced two progresses of rising and falling, and the rural proportion, which was stable before 2002, sharply increased. (3) The energy consumption intensity effect, which is the negative of the average energy price effect, contributed to most of the decrease in energy consumption, whereas residential income played a key role in the growth of consumption. According to the conclusions, we suggest further marketization and deregulation of energy prices, the promotion of advanced energy types and guidance for better energy consumption patterns

Perspective on the current realities confronting Canadian energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oulton, D.

1993-01-01

The importance of the Canadian energy sector is indicated by the large proportion of energy investments in the economy, the significant contribution of energy exports to total exports, the major role of the energy sector in Canada's regional economies, the high per-capita energy consumption, and the high contribution of fossil fuels to Canadian greenhouse gas emissions. The history of Canadian energy policy is characterized by three relatively distinct periods: a period of strong growth and development in the energy sector starting in the late 1940s, a crisis management period starting with the oil crises in the 1970s, and a market orientation in the early 1980s which reduced the role of government in the energy sector. Energy policy has generally focused on two main themes: assuring access to competitively priced energy supplies, and ensuring maximum economic benefit from energy developments. A third theme, environmental responsibility, has emerged since the late 1980s. Current pressures on Canadian energy policies include the increasing integration of energy markets in North America, the influence of international conditions on energy prices, and environmental quality concerns relating to the costs and uncertainties of environmental assessment, climate change, and sustainable development. Further constraints and influences on energy policy come from multilateral agreements with other countries and international agencies, and the need for cooperation among the different levels of Canadian governments. Economic regulation has fallen out of favor with most governments, industry, and the public, and the increased use of regulation to pursue environmental goals in the energy sector seems likely to continue

Unfair and excessive prices in the energy sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van der Woude, M. [Erasmus University, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

2008-05-15

The concept of competition refers to a process where firms dispute the favour of their customers by proposing better products at the lowest possible price. This consumer welfare creating process is to a large extent Darwinian in nature: those who cannot compete must die. The law of supply and demand is ruthless and so is competition law. Principles of fairness and justice are extraneous to competition law: the lion eats the deer. Still, EC competition law is not amoral, as illustrated by the very first example of abusive conduct given by Article 82 EC: 'directly or indirectly imposing unfair purchase or selling prices or other unfair trading conditions' can constitute an abuse. The concept of fairness as a constituent element of EC competition law may disturb those who analyze the competitive process through a scientific lens. Fairness does not relate to economic effects and cannot be measured or quantified. It is a concept that appeals to ethics and norms. The dichotomy between competition as an amoral welfare creating process, that can be the subject of economic research, and the normative concept of fairness does not necessarily lead to a contradiction. Fairness becomes relevant where the competitive process has ceased to play its welfare creating role: i.e. where monopolies prevail over perfect competition. When confronted to a monopoly, abstention is the customer's only choice and for some goods, such as food, clothing and housing, abstention is not considered as a realistic choice. In scenarios where the monopolist faces an inelastic demand curve, fairness is probably the customer's only safety buoy. The energy sector is one of the sectors where these situations occur. In our modern societies, customers expect the light to go on, when they turn the switch, and their houses to be heated, when activating their boilers. Candles and jumpers not offering realistic alternatives, demand is close to inelastic, at least on the short term. Moreover

Strategies for OPEC's pricing decisions. [Using model of world energy market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gately, D; Kyle, J F; Fischer, D

1977-11-01

A model of the world energy market that incorporates price expectations and lagged adjustments of demand and supply is used to examine implications of various price-paths that could be selected by OPEC. After demonstrating the sensitivity of the results to changes in functional specifications and certain parameter values, the authors discuss a variety of rule-of-thumb pricing strategies under which OPEC sets prices in response to available market signals. A strategy that is relatively cautious about further major price increases serves OPEC relatively well in comparison with other stategies, but there exists a real possibility of major, abrupt price increases within the next ten years.

Higher energy prices are associated with diminished resources, performance and safety in Australian ambulance systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Lawrence H; Chaiechi, Taha; Buettner, Petra G; Canyon, Deon V; Crawford, J Mac; Judd, Jenni

2013-02-01

To evaluate the impact of changing energy prices on Australian ambulance systems. Generalised estimating equations were used to analyse contemporaneous and lagged relationships between changes in energy prices and ambulance system performance measures in all Australian State/Territory ambulance systems for the years 2000-2010. Measures included: expenditures per response; labour-to-total expenditure ratio; full-time equivalent employees (FTE) per 10,000 responses; average salary; median and 90th percentile response time; and injury compensation claims. Energy price data included State average diesel price, State average electricity price, and world crude oil price. Changes in diesel prices were inversely associated with changes in salaries, and positively associated with changes in ambulance response times; changes in oil prices were also inversely associated with changes in salaries, as well with staffing levels and expenditures per ambulance response. Changes in electricity prices were positively associated with changes in expenditures per response and changes in salaries; they were also positively associated with changes in injury compensation claims per 100 FTE. Changes in energy prices are associated with changes in Australian ambulance systems' resource, performance and safety characteristics in ways that could affect both patients and personnel. Further research is needed to explore the mechanisms of, and strategies for mitigating, these impacts. The impacts of energy prices on other aspects of the health system should also be investigated. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

Renewable Energy Price-Stability Benefits in Utility Green Power Programs. 36 pp

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bird, Lori A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cory, Karlynn S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Swezey, Blair G. [Applied Materials, Santa Clara, CA (United States)

2008-08-01

This paper examines utility experiences when offering the fixed-price benefits of renewable energy in green pricing programs, including the methods utilized and the impact on program participation. It focuses primarily on utility green pricing programs in states that have not undergone electric industry restructuring.

Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth and the Hedging Role of Renewable Energy

OpenAIRE

Rentschler, Jun E.

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analy...

Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition: A general equilibrium approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.durand@uclouvain.b [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Pierru, Axel, E-mail: axel.pierru@ifp.f [IFP, Economics Department, 232 Avenue Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); Smeers, Yves, E-mail: yves.smeers@uclouvain.ac.b [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

2010-09-15

The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO{sub 2} emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO{sub 2} policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a 'hard cap' or a 'soft cap'. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories-with two branches after 2020-for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO{sub 2} emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios.

Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition. A general equilibrium approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Smeers, Yves [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Pierru, Axel [IFP, Economics Department, 232 Avenue Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France)

2010-09-15

The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO{sub 2} emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO{sub 2} policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a hard cap or a soft cap. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories - with two branches after 2020 - for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO{sub 2} emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios. (author)

Current and future financial competitiveness of electricity and heat from energy crops: A case study from Ireland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Styles, David; Jones, Michael B.

2007-01-01

It has been demonstrated that Miscanthus and willow energy-crop cultivation could be economically competitive with current agricultural land uses at a farm-gate biomass price ranging from EUR70 to EUR130 t -1 dry matter [Styles, D., Thorne, F., Jones, M.B., in review. Energy crops in Ireland: An economic comparison of willow and Miscanthus production with conventional farming systems. Biomass and Bioenergy, May 2006]. This paper uses the same farm-gate prices to calculate the economic competitiveness of energy crop electricity and heat production, using a net-present-value (NPV) approach (20-year period, 5% discount rate). Direct and gasified co-firing of willow wood with coal would result in electricity generation 30% or 37% more expensive than coal generation, at current coal and CO 2 allowance prices and a farm-gate biomass cost of EUR100 t -1 . 'Break-even' CO 2 allowance prices are EUR33 and EUR37 t -1 , respectively. However, co-firing of Miscanthus with peat is close to economic competitiveness, and would require a CO 2 allowance price of EUR16 t -1 to break-even (against a current price of EUR12 t -1 ). NPV analyses indicate that wood heat is significantly cheaper than oil, gas or electric heat, excluding existing wood-boiler installation subsidies. Discounted annual savings range from EUR143 compared with gas to EUR722 compared with electric heating at the domestic scale and from EUR3454 to EUR11,222 at the commercial scale. Inclusion of available subsidies improves the comparative economics of domestic wood heat substantially. The economic advantage of wood heat is robust to variation in fuel prices, discount rates and heat loads. The greatest obstacles to energy-crop utilisation include: (i) a reluctance to consider long-term economics; (ii) possible competition from cheaper sources of biomass; (iii) the need for a spatially coordinated supply and utilisation network. (author)

Modeling a clean energy standard for electricity: Policy design implications for emissions, supply, prices, and regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paul, Anthony; Palmer, Karen; Woerman, Matt

2013-01-01

The electricity sector is responsible for roughly 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, and a reduction in CO 2 emissions from electricity generation is an important component of the U.S. strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Toward that goal, several proposals for a clean energy standard (CES) have been put forth, including one espoused by the Obama administration that calls for 80% clean electricity by 2035 phased in from current levels of roughly 40%. This paper looks at the effects of such a policy on CO 2 emissions from the electricity sector, the mix of technologies used to supply electricity, electricity prices, and regional flows of clean energy credits. The CES leads to a 30% reduction in cumulative CO 2 emissions between 2013 and 2035 and results in dramatic reductions in generation from conventional coal. The policy also results in fairly modest increases on national electricity prices, but this masks a wide variety of effects across regions. - Highlights: ► We model a clean energy standard (CES) for electricity at 80% by 2035. ► We analyze effects on CO 2 emissions, investment, prices, and credit trading. ► 80% CES leads to 30% reduction in cumulative CO 2 emissions by 2035. ► Modest national average electricity price increase masks regional heterogeneity

Engineering economic analysis of meliponiculture in Malaysia considering current market price

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Basrawi Firdaus

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Stingless bees (kelulut keeping is now a trend in Malaysia. However, since demand for the source of colony in log is increasing, the log price is rapidly increasing. But, there is no data reported on the economic viability of meliponiculture in the current market price. Thus, the objective of this study is to clarify the economic viability of investment in meliponiculture in the current market price by engineering economic perspective. Investment in meliponiculture was analysed using Equivalent Annual Uniform Cost (EAUC, Internal Rate of Return (IRR and Breakeven Analysis. A small start-up with 30 units of logs or hives was considered in the analysis. All raw data was acquainted from current Malaysian market price, but only revenue from honey was considered. It was found that EAUC indicated that the annual worth of the log system is 23% better than the hive system. However, IRR calculation indicated that both the log and the hive systems offer margin exceeding 55% which is a very good return in general investment. In addition, it was also found that the log system had breakeven after 8th month, whereas the hive was 13th month. Better economic value could be obtained if revenue from by-products are considered. Thus, it can be concluded that meliponiculture is still very economically viable in Malaysia market trend, and the hive systems could be a better choice if splitting colony, maintenance, safety and aesthetics points of view are considered.

Risk hedging against the fuel price fluctuation in energy service business

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bannai, Masaaki; Tomita, Yasushi; Ishida, Yasushi; Miyazaki, Takahiko; Akisawa, Atsushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

2007-01-01

Energy service business, or energy service company (ESCO), is expanding among industrial users as a means of energy saving. The ESCO business normally tends to become a long-term operation. During the operation, fluctuations of fuel and electricity costs significantly impact on the stability of the profit from ESCO business. Therefore, it is essential to reduce the risk of fuel and electricity cost fluctuations. Generally, a transaction called ''financial derivative'' is used as a measure of hedging against the fuel price fluctuation. In the case of ESCO business, it is necessary to manage the risk of both electricity and fuel price fluctuations because the variation in electricity price strongly affects the profit from ESCO as that in fuel price does. In this paper, the stabilization of the ESCO profit using financial derivatives was discussed by quantitative analyses of the actual data from existing plants. Case studies revealed that the appropriate volume of the fuel derivative implementation was less than a half of the fuel consumption at the ESCO facilities, and it ranged from 5% to 50%. (author)

Existence of a current price as a precondition for abstract method for calculating damages in international and Serbian sales law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fišer-Šobot Sandra

2014-01-01

Full Text Available If the contract is avoided and there is a current price for the goods, the party claiming damages may recover the difference between the price fixed by the contract and the current price at specific time and at specific place. Abstract calculation of loss is possible only when the contract goods have current price. Current price is the price generally charged for such goods sold under comparable circumstances in the trade concerned. According to the CISG and Serbian Law of Obligations, for the determination of the current price is relevant time of avoidance. This general rule is not applicable in international sales law when the party claiming damages has avoided the contract after taking over the goods. In that case, the current price at the time of taking over shall be applicable instead of the current price at the time of avoidance. Current price rule contained in the Art. 76(2 of the CISG presupposes that the current price is the price prevailing at the place where the delivery of the goods should have been made, or if there is no current price at the place, the price at such other place as serves as a reasonable substitute, making due allowance for differences in the cost of transporting the goods. Pursuant to Art. 524(2 Of Serbian Law of Obligations, however, relevant is the price in the market of the place of effecting the transaction. Formulation place of effecting the transaction is unclear and vague and can create different problems. Therefore, this rule should be amended and the relevant place should be the place of delivery.

European Energy Integration in East European Countries: Real Necessity to Assure Fair Market prices for Energy Resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Augustin IGNATOV

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In order to assure energy, and therefore, economic stability of East European States (hereafter EES there should be undertaken visible steps towards deeper energetic integration of the region under the coordination of EU. In such a way there will be considerably strengthened the regional economic security through creating functional mechanisms of solving current and potential energy issues including diversification of supplies and fairer market prices. Moreover, it will be possible to develop and implement more effectively energy infrastructure projects. Deeper and more functional energy integration in EES will create favorable preconditions of fostering the states’ economic development. Also, there will be considerably reduced the macroeconomic risks which could possible occur as a result of the struggle of interests of importing and supplying countries. The current paper is intended to underline the most important weaknesses in terms of energy security of EES and exemplify how efficient these problems could be tackled by cumulating common countries’ efforts in the sector. Also, it highlights the shortcomings of EU energy policy in EES and how these affect the economic prospective of the countries. Finally, it is remarked that EES need a common energy market in order to strengthen their negotiation positions in relation with supplying countries.

Estimation of several political action effects of energy prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew B. Whitford

2016-01-01

Full Text Available One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This article describes how price changes helped lead to the emergence of a political agenda accompanied by several interventions, as revealed through Granger causality tests on change in the legislative agenda.

Price and maternal obesity influence purchasing of low- and high-energy-dense foods2

Science.gov (United States)

Epstein, Leonard H; Dearing, Kelly K; Paluch, Rocco A; Roemmich, James N; Cho, David

2007-01-01

Background Price can influence food purchases, which can influence consumption. Limited laboratory research has assessed the effect of price changes on food purchases, and no research on individual differences that may interact with price to influence purchases exists. Objective We aimed to assess the influence of price changes of low-energy-density (LED) and high-energy-density (HED) foods on mother’s food purchases in a laboratory food-purchasing analogue. Design Mothers were randomly assigned to price conditions in which the price of either LED or HED foods was manipulated from 75% to 125% of the reference purchase price, whereas the price of the alternative foods was kept at the reference value. Mothers completed purchases for 2 income levels ($15 or $30 per family member). Results Purchases were reduced when prices of LED (P elasticity of HED foods and substitution of LED for HED foods. PMID:17921365

Renewable Energy and Electricity Prices in Spain

OpenAIRE

Liliana Gelabert; Xavier Labandeira; Pedro Linares

2011-01-01

Growing concerns about climate change and energy dependence are driving specific policies to support renewable or more efficient energy sources in many regions, particularly in the production of electricity. These policies have a non-negligible cost, and therefore a careful assessment of their impacts seems necessary. In particular, one of the most-debated impacts is their effect on electricity prices, for which there have been some ex-ante studies, but few ex-post studies. This article prese...

Design of variable energy and price components of electricity tariffs as an incentive for system-efficient energy management of flexible consumers in households

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schreiber, Michael

2017-01-01

To mitigate anthropogenic climate change, both the heating and transport sectors will need to be electrically driven, with the higher electrical demand met by emission-free technologies, in addition to general efficiency improvements. On the generation side, wind and photovoltaic power plants must have a rated power significantly exceeding the current peak demand, in order to cover this increased electrical requirement. On the consumption side, heat pumps and private electric vehicles will increase the percentage of energy withdrawn at the low-voltage level of the new system. Given the right incentives, these customers will shift the energy demand in such a way as to benefit the system. This flexibility can be used as a tool to deal with variable renewable insertion while avoiding simultaneous overloading of the power grid. This thesis analyses and evaluates the effects of different electricity tariff designs on energy consumption. These tariffs should incentivise households to adapt their energy consumption to market prices, without inducing critical peak demands in times of particularly low prices. Therefore, time-varying energy price components and power price components are combined into flexible electricity tariffs and implemented as target functions within an optimization problem. The cost-minimizing effect of household energy management is determined under these flexible tariffs, and the effects of the tariff designs on energy consumption and the induced costs are evaluated. Additionally, the results of the flexible tariff approach are compared with results from a centralized optimization by a virtual power plant. It is possible to develop a design for a suitable flexible tariff that decreases the energy procurement costs of electric vehicles while simultaneously reducing peak demand in comparison to a single real-time pricing incentive. Furthermore, this thesis shows that certain kinds of electricity tariff design do not only fail to support but actually

Marginal abatement cost curves in general equilibrium: The influence of world energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klepper, Gernot; Peterson, Sonja

2006-01-01

Marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) are a favorite instrument to analyze international emissions trading. This paper focuses on the question of how to define MACCs in a general equilibrium context where the global abatement level influences energy prices and in turn national MACCs. We discuss the mechanisms theoretically and then use the CGE model DART for quantitative simulations. The result is, that changes in energy prices resulting from different global abatement levels do indeed affect national MACCs. Also, we compare different possibilities of defining MACCs-of which some are robust against changes in energy prices while others vary considerably. (author)

The Share Price and Investment: Current Footprints for Future Oil and Gas Industry Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ionel Jianu

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The share price has become a very important indicator for shareholders, banks, and financial institutions evaluating the performance of companies. The oil and gas industry seems to be in a difficult era of development, due to the market prices for its products. Moreover, climate change and renewable energies are barriers for fossil energy. This state of affairs, and the fact that oil and gas shares are considered one of the most solid and reliable shares on the London Stock Exchange (LSE, have drawn our attention. International institutions encourage the investment in the oil and gas economic sector. This study investigates how investments of oil and gas companies in long-term assets influence the share price. Using the Ohlson share price model for a sample of 51 listed companies on the LSE proves that investments in long-term assets influence the share price in the case of companies which record losses. Investments in long-term assets are responsible for the attractiveness of the oil and gas company shares.

Natural gas prices force businesses to strategic energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wisse, C.J.

2006-01-01

There are many factors which force businesses to think about a strategic energy policy: energy prices, supply security, regulations in the Netherlands and the European Union, technological developments with regard to fuels, etc. By using a decision making model several criteria can be assessed for different scenarios [nl

The contribution of the DOE's R ampersand D budget in natural gas to energy price security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sutherland, R.J.

1992-01-01

The energy price volatility model suggests that some of the proposed natural gas programs can contribute to energy price stability. The sector most vulnerable to fuel price variations is, of course, the transportation sector. The most effective strategy to achieve energy pace stability is to reduce petroleum consumption in this sector. The natural gas vehicle program is therefore recommended as potentially important and worthy of further consideration. At this point, distinguishing the merits of various subprograms is not feasible. This result farther supports the conclusion that the DOE's energy R ampersand D portfolio is not efficiently balanced and an increase in oil and gas research should be a high priority. The DOE has responded favorably and has significantly increased its proposed research with the explicit objective of displacing oil in the transportation sector. The enhanced research and development program for energy security, in the NES, proposes major funding, increases in this area. To recommend the further increases proposed by the industry, a careful analysis of incremental benefits and costs is required. The proposed natural as supply program is intended to enhance the future supply of natural gas. As explained above, enhanced gas supplies can reduce the volatility of gas prices and severe the link between gas and oil prices. The gas supply program is recommended as a potentially important strategy to ensure energy price stability. The importance of this point merits restatement. Oil price volatility affects directly the transportation and industrial sectors. The residential, commercial and electric utility sectors are not highly oil dependent. However, oil prices have affected gas prices and gas is used extensively the residential, commercial, industrial and electric utility sectors. Energy price stability is enhanced in these sectors by severing, the link, between oil and gas prices

Carbon pricing. A lever for energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

The international community has set itself the target of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 deg. C. In today's world, the challenge is to invent new ways of manufacturing goods, producing food, travelling and keeping ourselves warm, without emitting more greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere than what we are technically able to remove from it. Climate action can be considered as an insurance for our societies against unacceptable costs generated by the risk of increasingly frequent climate-triggered natural disasters, irreversible damage to ecosystems and mass population migrations. In addition to avoid climate damage there are many benefits of climate action, including greater energy autonomy, reduced atmospheric pollution, which is harmful for human health, and the economic benefits of new green growth sectors. However, the efforts needed to make the transition to economies that emit fewer greenhouse gases must not be underestimated. This transition requires the mass redirection of investments into clean transport, renewable energy sources, building insulation and the development of agro-ecology, in a highly restricted financial and budgetary context. The economic and financial tools used for explicit or implicit carbon pricing give clear messages about the benefits of emitting less carbon, or alternatively the cost of greenhouse gas emissions for society. Consequently, they make it possible to accelerate the energy transition. 74 countries and over 1,000 businesses formed a coalition for carbon pricing during the United Nations Climate Summit in September 2014, held at the invitation of the UN Secretary-General. The goal of the coalition is to promote productive dialogue between public and private decision-makers concerning opportunities to extend carbon pricing policies. It has been officially launched on November 30, 2015, on the opening day of COP21. It has been officially launched on November 30, 2015, on the opening day of COP21. Members of the

Business cycles and the behavior of energy prices

OpenAIRE

Serletis, Apostolos; Hulleman, Vaughn

1994-01-01

This paper tests the theory of storage--the hypothesis that the marginal convenience yield on inventory falls at a decreasing rate as inventory increases in energy markets (crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gas markets). We use the Fama and French (1988) indirect test, based on the relative variation in spot and futures prices. The results suggest that the theory holds for the energy markets.

Interdependencies in the energy-bioenergy-food price systems: A cointegration analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciaian, Pavel; Kancs, d'Artis

2011-01-01

The present paper studies the interdependencies between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two channels of price transmission: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 783 weekly observations extending from January 1994 to December 2008. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent including also commodities not directly used in bioenergy production: an increase in oil price by 1 $/barrel increases the agricultural commodity prices between 0.10 $/tonne and 1.80 $/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input channel of price transmission is found to be small and statistically insignificant. (author)

Impact of energy prices: a housing-market analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zaki, A.S.; Isakson, H.R.

1983-04-01

This paper investigates the effect of energy costs on the housing-market response. As the effect of energy costs has not been specifically investigated before in the literature, both a linear and nonlinear model were investigated. The choice of the appropriate model was determined using the Box-Cox transformation technique. The chosen model was then validated. The results reveal that in the Spokane, Washington, area, where energy costs are relatively low, energy prices do not have a significant effect on market response. However, applying the same methodology to areas where energy costs are higher might produce different results. 29 references, 3 tables.

Economic impact on the Florida economy of energy price spikes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mory, J.F.

1992-01-01

A substantial disturbance in oil supplies is likely to generate a large price upsurge and a downturn in the level of economic activity. Each of these two effects diminishes demand by a certain amount. The specific price surge required to reduce demand to the lower level of supply can be calculated with an oil demand function and with empirical estimations of the association between price spikes and declines in economic activity. The first section presents an energy demand model for Florida, which provides the price and income elasticities needed. The second section includes theoretical explanations and empirical estimations of the relationship between price spikes and recessions. Based on historical evidence, it seems that Florida's and the nation's economic systems are very sensitive to oil price surges. As price spikes appear damaging to the economy, it could be expected that reductions in the price of oil are beneficial to the system. That is likely to be the case in the long run, but no empirical evidence of favorable short-term effects of oil price decreases was found. Several possible explanations and theoretical reasons are offered to explain this lack of association. The final section presents estimates of the effect of oil disruptions upon specific industries in Florida and the nation

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management =

Science.gov (United States)

Madaleno, Mara Teresa da Silva

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing

Prices and pricing in the energy sector. From calculation to implemention of prices for electricity, gas, district heating, water and CO{sub 2}; Preise und Preisgestaltung in der Energiewirtschaft. Von der Kalkulation bis zur Umsetzung von Preisen fuer Strom, Gas, Fernwaerme, Wasser und CO{sub 2}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zenke, Ines [BBH Becker Buettner Held, Berlin (Germany); Hochschule fuer nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (HNEE) (Germany); Wollschlaeger, Stefan [Becker Buettner Held, Hamburg (Germany).; Eder, Jost (ed.) [BBH Becker Buettner Held, Berlin (Germany)

2015-07-01

Hardly a question in the energy sector is currently so great discussion subject, such as the pricing of energy prices. The work provides practical answers to all questions. After a systematic introduction to the subject specialists and practitioners give an introduction to the specific rules applicable to each sector or value chain. Given is a comprehensive overview on the subject of prices in the energy sector as well as numerous practical examples, notes, options for action and formulating proposals. [German] Kaum eine Frage in der Energiewirtschaft ist derzeit so grossen Diskussionen unterworfen, wie die Preisgestaltung von Energieversorgungspreisen. Das Werk bietet praxisbezogene Antworten auf alle Fragen. Nach einer systematischen Einfuehrung in die Thematik fuehren ausgewiesene Fachleute und Praktiker in die fuer jede einzelne Sparte bzw. Wertschoepfungskette geltenden Besonderheiten ein. Gegeben wird ein umfassender Ueberblick zum Thema Preise in der Energiewirtschaft sowie zahlreiche praxisnahe Beispiele, Hinweise, Handlungsoptionen und Formulierungsvorschlaege.

A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL PRICES CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FROM FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuksel BAYRAKTAR

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of oil prices in the Fragile-Five countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India, and Turkey on current account deficit and growth. In this study, the method of panel data analysis was used and the period of 1980-2014 was examined. The Levin, Lin, & Chu panel; Im, Pesaran, and Shin W-stat; ADF-Fisher Chi-square; and PP-Fisher Chi-square unit root tests were used to determine the stability of data before panel data analysis. The results of the study can be expressed as follows. i There was a statistically meaningful relationship in oil prices with both GDP and the current account deficit. While there was a positive correlation between oil prices and GDP, there was a negative relationship between oil prices and current account deficit. ii No long-term relationship was found between GDP and oil prices; there was a long-term relationship between current account deficit and oil prices as determined by the cointegration tests. iii Causality test also showed the presence of a bidirectional relationship between GDP and oil prices.  Causality between oil prices and the current account deficit was one-way from the variable of oil price to the variable of current account deficit.

Recent developments and current policy issues in road pricing in the US and Canada

OpenAIRE

Lindsey, Robin

2005-01-01

The United States and Canada lag Europe and Singapore in implementing road pricing on a large scale. But the two countries have shown interest in tolling roads as a way to curb congestion and to generate revenues. The US is funding congestion pricing demonstration projects through its Value Pricing Pilot Program, and Canada has examined new ways to charge for road use and to finance road construction and maintenance. This paper reviews the current state of road pricing and funding...

A New Pricing Scheme for Controlling Energy Storage Devices in Future Smart Grid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingwei Zhu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Improvement of the overall efficiency of energy infrastructure is one of the main anticipated benefits of the deployment of smart grid technology. Advancement in energy storage technology and two-way communication in the electric network are indispensable components to achieve such a vision, while efficient pricing schemes and appropriate storage management are also essential. In this paper, we propose a universal pricing scheme which permits one to indirectly control the energy storage devices in the grid to achieve a more desirable aggregate demand profile that meets a particular target of the grid operator such as energy generation cost minimization and carbon emission reduction. Such a pricing scheme can potentially be applied to control the behavior of energy storage devices installed for integration of intermittent renewable energy sources that have permission to grid connection and will have broader applications as an increasing number of novel and low-cost energy storage technologies emerge.

Transfer Pricing Documentation - A Current Issue

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Violeta Isai

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Rather quick development of the business environment has led to the implementation of legislative measures to meet the requirements and amendments thereto. With the adoption of the Fiscal Procedure Code and Order no. 442/2016 were founded transfer pricing procedures, denoting a means of making taxable transfer of a high tax country to a low tax country. These laws have laid down conditions that must be met and materiality thresholds that must take into account the taxpayer to draft transfer pricing documentation file. The aim of these measures is to reduce the differences between the prices charged by the related parts and the market value and also to actual results of company taxation. The tax authorities are entitled to apply price adjustments when it is not the principle of market value, which entail economic double taxation. Application and dossier preparation of transfer pricing contribute to a collective vision on the market in which the company operates, understanding how business development and, not least, the creation of an appropriate fiscal planning.

Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, Joshua C.C.; Grant, Angelia L.

2016-01-01

We compare a number of GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models using nine series of oil, petroleum product and natural gas prices in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. The competing models include the standard models of GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, and t distributed and moving average innovations. We find that: (1) SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts; (2) the jump component and t distributed innovations substantially improve the performance of the standard GARCH, but are unimportant for the SV model; (3) the volatility feedback channel seems to be superfluous; (4) the moving average component markedly improves the fit of both GARCH and SV models; and (5) the leverage effect is important for modeling crude oil prices—West Texas Intermediate and Brent—but not for other energy prices. Overall, the SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series. - Highlights: • We compare a variety of GARCH and SV models for fitting nine series of energy prices. • We find that SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts. • The SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series.

Economic potential of energy-efficient retrofitting in the Swiss residential building sector: The effects of policy instruments and energy price expectations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amstalden, Roger W.; Kost, Michael; Nathani, Carsten; Imboden, Dieter M.

2007-01-01

The aim of this paper is to analyse the profitability of energy-efficient retrofit investments in the Swiss residential building sector from the house owner's perspective. Different energy price expectations, policy instruments such as subsidies, income tax deduction and a carbon tax, as well as potential future cost degression of energy efficiency measures were taken into account. The discounted cash flow method was used for the investment analysis of different retrofit packages applied to a model building scheduled for renovation, i.e. a single-family house constructed between 1948 and 1975. The results show that present Swiss policy instruments push investments for energy-efficient retrofitting to profitability. Cost degression has a minor significance for investment profitability. However, the most relevant factor for the investment analysis is the expected energy price. Expecting a future fuel oil price at the level of 2005, efficiency investments are close to profitability even without policy support. If higher energy prices were expected, energy-efficient retrofitting would be an attractive investment opportunity

Energy price increases and economic development in Malaysia.

OpenAIRE

Fong CO

1984-01-01

ILO pub-WEP pub. Working paper on the impact of higher energy costs (particularly petroleum price increases) on economic development in Malaysia, 1973 to 1983 - outlines trends in gross domestic product, balance of payments, trade and economic growth; considers household income and fuel expenditure of low income rural communitys; deals with choice of technology and employment in certain high power consumption industries; discusses energy policy implications. Graphs, maps, questionnaires, refe...

Business cycles and the behavior of energy prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Serletis, A.; Hulleman, V. [Univ. of Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

1994-12-31

This paper tests the theory of storage - the hypothesis that the marginal convenience yield on inventory falls at a decreasing rate as inventory increases in energy markets (crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gas markets). We use the Fama and French (1988) indirect test, based on the relative variation in spot and futures prices. The results suggest that the theory holds for the energy markets. 11 refs., 4 tabs.

Analysis of district heating pricing in Finland from the customers' and energy companies perspectives. Final report; Kaukolaemmoen hinnoittelun nykytila ja tulevaisuuden mahdollisuudet. Loppuraportti

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sarvaranta, A.; Jaaskelainen, J.; Puolakka, J.; Kouri, P. [AF-Consult, Vantaa (Finland)

2012-12-15

The heating market in Finland is changing. Until now, district heating demand has been constantly increasing. However, forecasts predict the demand to drop slightly in the future due to the increasing energy efficiency demands and development of competing heating technologies. Maintaining existing customer base may rise as one of the major challenges of a district heating company in the future. This report covers the topic 'Analysis of district heating pricing in Finland from the customers' and energy companies perspectives'. The report provides a general description of the current challenges and future opportunities of district heating pricing in Finland. Cost and pricing structures are discussed from both the companies and customers' perspectives. The overall objective is to provide an overview of the current state of district heating pricing in Finland and provide information on new pricing opportunities. The conclusions of the report provide information that district heating companies can use in developing their pricing system. Based on the literature and material analysed in this study, district heating pricing currently lacks adequate transparency and therefore should be developed to reflect the cost structure more closely. New metering technologies allow more accurate information on heat consumption and can hence be used to improve the transparency of pricing. Average marginal costs generally vary between seasons. If the goal is to reflect the cost structure taking into account the average variable costs, season dependent pricing becomes desirable. More variability in pricing between seasons may also keep customers from switching completely or partially into other heating systems, as the pricing becomes more cost-effective and easier to understand. Different types of customers wish for different properties in pricing: transparency, freedom of choice, convenience, more dynamic pricing, etc.. While expanding and tailoring the pricing

Projections of the energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jankauskas, V.

1996-01-01

This article deals with the trends of the main fuel prices development in the Western European markets. There are two possible price development scenarios presented in the article. Transportation costs of various internationally traded fuels from various sources (Russia, Western Europe) are estimated and their most feasible values are considered. Fuel prices for the final big consumers are calculated adding the domestic distribution costs. Trends of heat and electricity price development in Lithuania during the period of 1991-1995 are analyzed. Forecasts of the electricity generation and supply costs are calculated according to various scenarios. Electricity prices will be lowest in the case of the further operation of the Ignalina NPP and low fuel prices in international markets. (author). 8 refs., 14 figs., 4 tabs

Dynamic pricing based on a cloud computing framework to support the integration of renewable energy sources

OpenAIRE

Rajeev Thankappan Nair; Ashok Sankar

2014-01-01

Integration of renewable energy sources into the electric grid in the domestic sector results in bidirectional energy flow from the supply side of the consumer to the grid. Traditional pricing methods are difficult to implement in such a situation of bidirectional energy flow and they face operational challenges on the application of price-based demand side management programme because of the intermittent characteristics of renewable energy sources. In this study, a dynamic pricing method usi...

Petroleum Prices, Taxation and Subsidies in India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2009-07-01

The current Indian system of effectively subsidised petroleum product prices has significant implications for the emergence of India as a major global energy consumer, for the integrity of India's Central Government budget and for investment in India's growing oil and petroleum sector. This paper is part one of a broader study that looks at the current system of petroleum pricing and the macroeconomic, microeconomic, regional and global effects of this system.

Rising energy prices and the economics of water in agriculture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zilberman, D.; Sproul, T.; Rajagopal, D.; Sexton, S.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.

2008-01-01

Rising energy prices will alter water allocation and distribution. Water extraction and conveyance will become more costly and demand for hydroelectric power will grow. The higher cost of energy will substantially increase the cost of groundwater, whereas increasing demand for hydroelectric power

A New Pricing Scheme for Controlling Energy Storage Devices in Future Smart Grid

OpenAIRE

Zhu, Jingwei; Chen, Michael Z. Q.; Du, Baozhu

2014-01-01

Improvement of the overall efficiency of energy infrastructure is one of the main anticipated benefits of the deployment of smart grid technology. Advancement in energy storage technology and two-way communication in the electric network are indispensable components to achieve such a vision, while efficient pricing schemes and appropriate storage management are also essential. In this paper, we propose a universal pricing scheme which permits one to indirectly control the energy storage devic...

The world energy demand in 2005: confirmed increase in energy consumptions, despite soaring crude oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chateau, Bertrand

2006-01-01

The world energy demand growth remains strong: 2004 experienced the highest growth since 19987, and brent prices had moderate impact in 2005: Very strong rise of energy consumptions despite high oil prices, Economic situation still favorable, Evolutions principally due to China. 2005 world energy consumption: 11,4 Gtoe: Asia accounts for 35% of the world energy consumption, China's weight (15%) continues to increase by one point every year (+5 points since 2000). Asia increases its pressure on the world energy growth in 2005: China accounts for almost half of the world energy consumption increase in 2005, the whole Asia accounts for 70%; The European consumption growth represents less than 5% of China's Growth; The American energy consumption decreases for the first time. 2005 world consumption by energy: With an increasing market share by 0,7 points, coal penetration increases; The oil market has lost 0,4 point, with an accelerating relative decrease; The relative weight of gas remains stable, with 21%. Energy efficiency and energy intensity of GDP: Slow-down of the world energy intensity decrease since 2001, whereas the economic growth is faster, due to changes in trends in China (increase in the recent years). Increase less sharp in China in 2005 (price effect). Energy intensity trends of GDP: Fast decrease in CIS since the recovery of the economic growth; Slow-down of the decrease in EU since 2000 and recovery in 2005 whereas the decrease has accelerated in the USA. Since 2000, the energy consumption increases less rapidly than the GDP almost everywhere, except for the Middle East. Projections until 2020: China and India could represent one third of the world energy growth, the whole of Asia more than 50%; Growth prospects for energy demand are low in the EU and CIS; America would account for 20% of the world energy growth (8% USA); In the rest of the world, high growth in Africa and in the Middle East. Gas could cover more than 40% of the world energy

Pricing the (European) option to switch between two energy sources: An application to crude oil and natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gatfaoui, Hayette

2015-01-01

We consider a firm, which can choose between crude oil and natural gas to run its business. The firm selects the energy source, which minimizes its energy or production costs at a given time horizon. Assuming the energy strategy to be established over a fixed time window, the energy choice decision will be made at a given future date T. In this light, the firm's energy cost can be considered as a long position in a risk-free bond by an amount of the terminal oil price, and a short position in a European put option to switch from oil to gas by an amount of the terminal oil price too. As a result, the option to switch from crude oil to natural gas allows for establishing a hedging strategy with respect to energy costs. Modeling stochastically the underlying asset of the European put, we propose a valuation formula of the option to switch and calibrate the pricing formula to empirical data on a daily basis. Hence, our innovative framework handles widely the hedge against the price increase of any given energy source versus the price of another competing energy source (i.e. minimizing energy costs). Moreover, we provide a price for the cost-reducing effect of the capability to switch from one energy source to another one (i.e. hedging energy price risk). - Highlights: • We consider a firm, which chooses either crude oil or natural gas as an energy source. • The capability to switch offers the firm a hedge against energy commodity price risk. • A European put option prices the ability to switch from crude oil to natural gas. • The capability to switch between two energy sources reduces the firm's energy costs. • The discount illustrates the efficiency of the energy management policy (e.g. timing).

Energy Prices, Tariffs, Taxes and Subsidies in Ukraine

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Evans, Meredydd

2007-04-01

For many years, electricity, gas and district heating tariffs for residential consumers were very low in Ukraine; until recently, they were even lower than in neighbouring countries such as Russia. The increases in gas and electricity tariffs, implemented in 2006, are an important step toward sustainable pricing levels; however, electricity and natural gas (especially for households) are still priced below the long-run marginal cost. The problem seems even more serious in district heating and nuclear power. According to the Ministry of Construction, district heating tariffs, on average, cover about 80% of costs. Current electricity prices do not fully include the capital costs of power stations, which are particularly high for nuclear power. Although the tariff for nuclear electricity generation includes a small decommissioning charge, it has not been sufficient to accumulate necessary funds for nuclear plants decommissioning.

Is there a price premium for energy efficiency labels? Evidence from the Introduction of a Label in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Ju Young

2017-01-01

This study examines the price premium from Korea's Energy Efficiency Grade Label. The Korean government recently began energy certification of televisions, providing a setting to analyze a possible price effect of the new label. Hedonic regression results seem to show that a price premium exists for products with the Energy Efficiency Grade Label. However, potential unobserved heterogeneity is a concern. Difference-in-difference and fixed-effects models are used to capture the net effect of the label by controlling for time and product differences. The results suggest that any price premium does not result from the energy efficiency label itself. Instead, energy-efficient products already had higher prices before the introduction of the energy efficiency label. The finding turns our attention to the importance of careful design of labeling programs. - Highlights: • The study examines the price premium from Korea's Energy Efficiency Grade Label. • Difference-in-difference and fixed-effects models are used to address potential unobserved heterogeneity and to capture the net effect of the label by controlling for time and product differences. • The result suggests that any price premium does not result from the energy efficiency label itself; instead, energy-efficient products already have higher prices before the introduction of the energy efficiency label. • The finding turns our attention to the importance of careful design of labeling programs.

The Impact of Energy Prices on Employment and Environmental Performance: Evidence from French Manufacturing Establishments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marin, Giovanni; Vona, Francesco

2017-01-01

This paper evaluates the historical influence of energy prices on a series of measures of environmental and economic performance for a panel of French manufacturing establishments over the period 1997-2010. The focus on energy prices is motivated by the fact that changes in environmental and energy policies have been dominated by substantial reductions in discounts for large consumers, making the evaluation of each policy in isolation exceedingly difficult. To identify price effects, we construct a shift-share instrument that captures only the exogenous variation in establishment-specific energy prices. Our results highlight a trade-off between environmental and economic goals: although a 10 percent increase in energy prices brings about a 6 percent reduction in energy consumption and to a 11 percent reduction in CO_2 emissions, such an increase also has a modestly negative impact on employment (-2.6 percent) and very small impact on wages and productivity. The negative employment effects are mostly concentrated in energy-intensive and trade-exposed sectors. Simulating the effect of a carbon tax, we show that job losses for the most exposed sectors can be quite large. However, these effects are upper bounds and we show that they are significantly mitigated in multi-plant firms by labor reallocation across establishments. (authors)

Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chien-Chiang; Chiu, Yi-Bin

2011-01-01

This study utilizes the Johansen cointegration technique, the Granger non-causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), the generalized impulse response function, and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition to examine the dynamic interrelationship among nuclear energy consumption, real oil price, oil consumption, and real income in six highly industrialized countries for the period 1965-2008. Our empirical results indicate that the relationships between nuclear energy consumption and oil are as substitutes in the U.S. and Canada, while they are complementary in France, Japan, and the U.K. Second, the long-run income elasticity of nuclear energy is larger than one, indicating that nuclear energy is a luxury good. Third, the results of the Granger causality test find evidence of unidirectional causality running from real income to nuclear energy consumption in Japan. A bidirectional relationship appears in Canada, Germany and the U.K., while no causality exists in France and the U.S. We also find evidence of causality running from real oil price to nuclear energy consumption, except for the U.S., and causality running from oil consumption to nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Japan, and the U.K., suggesting that changes in price and consumption of oil influence nuclear energy consumption. Finally, the results observe transitory initial impacts of innovations in real income and oil consumption on nuclear energy consumption. In the long run the impact of real oil price is relatively larger compared with that of real income on nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Germany, Japan, and the U.S.

Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Chien-Chiang, E-mail: cclee@cm.nsysu.edu.tw; Chiu, Yi-Bin

2011-03-15

This study utilizes the Johansen cointegration technique, the Granger non-causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), the generalized impulse response function, and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition to examine the dynamic interrelationship among nuclear energy consumption, real oil price, oil consumption, and real income in six highly industrialized countries for the period 1965-2008. Our empirical results indicate that the relationships between nuclear energy consumption and oil are as substitutes in the U.S. and Canada, while they are complementary in France, Japan, and the U.K. Second, the long-run income elasticity of nuclear energy is larger than one, indicating that nuclear energy is a luxury good. Third, the results of the Granger causality test find evidence of unidirectional causality running from real income to nuclear energy consumption in Japan. A bidirectional relationship appears in Canada, Germany and the U.K., while no causality exists in France and the U.S. We also find evidence of causality running from real oil price to nuclear energy consumption, except for the U.S., and causality running from oil consumption to nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Japan, and the U.K., suggesting that changes in price and consumption of oil influence nuclear energy consumption. Finally, the results observe transitory initial impacts of innovations in real income and oil consumption on nuclear energy consumption. In the long run the impact of real oil price is relatively larger compared with that of real income on nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Germany, Japan, and the U.S.

Price determinants of the European carbon market and interactions with energy markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schumacher, Katja; Cludius, Johanna; Matthes, Felix [Oeko Institut e.V., Berlin (Germany); Diekmann, Jochen; Zaklan, Aleksandar [Deutsches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin (Germany); Schleich, Joachim [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

2012-06-15

This report explores the determinants of short run price movements in the carbon market and their interaction with energy markets, in particular with the electricity market. Focusing on Phase 2 of the EU ETS we conduct econometric time series analysis based on continental EU and UK market data. Our findings suggest that market fundamentals have a dominant effect on the EUA price, but that non-fundamental factors may also play a role. We further found that the electricity price has a significant positive impact on the carbon price in the short run.

Correlations between energy economy and housing market prices in the EU-impacts on future sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maassen Maria Alexandra

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The global economic system is facing multiple challenges in terms of social development, technology and innovation, as well as sustainability needs. As a result, the value of existing assets is changing globally depending on the scarcity, necessity and effects on the business field leading to increased prices of traditional sources of energy and increased competition in the economic field. Thus, the EU energy market has progressed in reducing its dependence on external energy sourcing, by increasing production of renewable energy, such as wind or solar, as well as by further integration of the electric grid. Based on the Pearson coefficient this article intends to research the correlations between the economic, energy and house prices in recent years and the future possible impacts depending on their evolution. For example, gas prices in the past decade increasing household costs in most countries due to the dependence on third parties for energy, lead to the need of increasing the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption, which have consequently decreased electricity prices since 2008. However, this development has still not solved the additional costs issue of households due to the new technologies implemented although wind and solar energy receive in general low margins. Such energy issues, as well as the increased housing prices after the financial crisis in 2008 have caused on their own an additional burden on the economy and households spending income in the next years following.

How the removal of energy subsidy affects general price in China: A study based on input–output model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Zhujun; Tan, Jijun

2013-01-01

In China, most energy prices are controlled by the government and are under-priced, which means energy subsidies existing. Reforming energy subsidies have important implications for sustainable development through their effects on energy price, energy use and CO 2 emission. This paper applies a price-gap approach to estimate China's fossil-fuel related subsidies with the consideration of the external cost. Results indicate that the magnitude of subsidies amounted to CNY 1214.24 billion in 2008, equivalent to 4.04% of GDP of that year. Subsidies for oil products are the largest, followed by subsidies for the coal and electricity. Furthermore, an input–output model is used to analyze the impacts of energy subsidies reform on different industries and general price indexes. The findings show that removal of energy subsidies will have significant impact on energy-intensive industry, and consequently push up the general price level, yet with a small variation. Removing oil products subsidies will have the largest impact, followed by electricity, coal and natural gas. However, no matter which energy price increases, PPI is always the most affected, then GDP deflator, with CPI being the least. Corresponding compensation measures should be accordingly designed to offset the negative impact caused by energy subsidies reform. - Highlights: • China's fossil-fuel subsidies were CNY 1214.24 billion in 2008 including external cost. • Removing energy subsidies will have the largest impact on energy-intensity industry. • Removal of oil products subsidies will have the largest impact. • The effect of removing energy subsidies on general price is: PPI>GDP deflator>CPI

The electricity prices in the European Union. The role of renewable energies and regulatory electric market reforms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreno, Blanca; López, Ana J.; García-Álvarez, María Teresa

2012-01-01

The European Union electricity market has been gradually liberalized since 1990s. Theoretically, competitive markets should lead to efficiency gains in the economy thus reducing electricity prices. However, there is a controversial debate about the real effects of the electricity liberalization on electricity prices. Moreover, the increased generation of electricity from renewable energies RES-E (Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources) is also integrated in wholesale market reducing wholesale prices, but the final effect over household prices is not clear. In order to contribute to this debate, this paper provides an empirical investigation into the electricity prices determinants. In fact we develop econometric panel models to explore the relationship between the household electricity prices and variables related to the renewable energy sources and the competition in generation electricity market. More specifically we use a panel data set provided by Eurostat and covering 27 European Union countries during the period 1998–2009. Our results suggest that electricity prices increase with the deployment of RES-E and with the expansion of greenhouse gas emissions produced by energy industries- as a European Union CO 2 emission trading scheme exists. Results also reveal that country's characteristics can affect household electricity prices. -- Highlights: ► Electricity liberalized markets should lead to reduce electricity prices. ► The use of renewable energies (RES) reduce wholesale electricity prices. ► However, household electricity prices are increasing in European Union. ► Panel data models are developed to investigate the effect of RES and electricity competition on household electricity prices. ► We find that the deployment of RES increases prices paid by consumers in a liberalized market.

Petroleum Prices, Taxation and Subsidies in India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2009-07-01

The current Indian system of effectively subsidised petroleum product prices has significant implications for the emergence of India as a major global energy consumer, for the integrity of India's Central Government budget and for investment in India's growing oil and petroleum sector. This paper is part one of a broader study that looks at the current system of petroleum pricing and the macroeconomic, microeconomic, regional and global effects of this system.

The bio-energies development: the role of biofuels and the CO2 price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jouvet, Pierre-Andre; Lantz, Frederic; Le Cadre, Elodie

2012-01-01

Reduction in energy dependency and emissions of CO 2 via renewable energies targeted in the European Union energy mix and taxation system, might trigger the production of bio-energy production and competition for biomass utilization. Torrefied biomass could be used to produce second generation biofuels to replace some of the fuels used in transportation and is also suitable as feedstock to produce electricity in large quantities. This paper examines how the CO 2 price affects demand of torrefied biomass in the power sector and its consequences on the profitability of second generation biofuel units (Biomass to Liquid units). Indeed, the profitability of the BtL units which are supplied only by torrefied biomass is related to the competitive demand of the power sector driven by the CO 2 price and feed-in tariffs. We propose a linear dynamic model of supply and demand. On the supply side, a profit-maximizing torrefied biomass sector is modelled. The model aims to represent the transformation of biomass into torrefied biomass which could be sold to the refinery sector and the power sector. A two-sided (demanders and supplier) bidding process led us to arrive at the equilibrium price for torrefied biomass. The French case is used as an example. Our results suggest that the higher the CO 2 price, the more stable and important the power sector demand. It also makes the torrefied biomass production less vulnerable to uncertainty on demand coming from the refining sector. The torrefied biomass co-firing with coal can offer a near-term market for the torrefied biomass for a CO 2 emission price lower than 20 euros/tCO 2 , which can stimulate development of biomass supply systems. Beyond 2020, the demand for torrefied biomass from the power sector could be substituted by the refining sector if the oil price goes up whatever the CO 2 price. (authors)

Energy Prices in the International Market between Expectations and Political Reality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, Z.

1995-01-01

The author points out the necessity of complex analyses not only of relevant energy terms, primarily the relationship between supply and demand, but also of other most frequently neglected ones. This regards, first of all, the analyses of economic and political interests of factors engaged in this area, but also the situation and tendencies within the complex sphere of R and D. It is the only way to be able to comprehend the phenomenon of prices which are primarily the consequences and not the cause of numerous influences; naturally, it is impossible to exclude from these analyses a number of back-effects. Mentioning the examples of price projections from which the author derives parity relations not included in original data, he presents his projection of prices for energy products until the year 2010. Due to a limited space, the author does not get into the enumeration and analysis of all relevant guidelines (finding costs, transportation costs, environmental aspects, availability of energy products/sources and their location, ect.). (author). 12 refs., 3 tabs

Energy savings potential in China's industrial sector: From the perspectives of factor price distortion and allocative inefficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouyang, Xiaoling; Sun, Chuanwang

2015-01-01

China's industrial energy consumption accounted for 70.82% of national and 14.12% of world energy usage in 2011. In the context of energy scarcity and environmental pollution, the industrial sector in China faces unsustainable growth problems. By adopting the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) framework, this paper analyzes the factor allocative efficiency of China's industrial sector, and estimates the energy savings potential from the perspective of allocative inefficiency. This paper focuses on three issues. The first is examining the factor allocative inefficiency of China's industrial sector. The second is measuring factor price distortion by the shadow price model. The third is estimating the energy savings potential in China's industrial sector during 2001–2009. Major conclusions are thus drawn. First, factor prices of capital, labor and energy are distorted in China due to government regulations. Moreover, energy price is relatively low compared to capital price, while is relatively high compared to labor price. Second, the industry-wide energy savings potential resulted from energy allocative inefficiency was about 9.71% during 2001–2009. The downward trend of energy savings potential implies the increasing energy allocative efficiency in China's industrial sector. Third, a transparent and reasonable pricing mechanism is conducive to improving energy allocative efficiency. - Highlights: • We measure energy savings potential resulted from allocative inefficiency in China's industrial sector. • Allocative inefficiency is explained based on the theoretical and empirical models. • Factor prices of capital, labor and energy are distorted because of government regulations. • Energy pricing reform is conducive to improving energy allocative efficiency

Internalising externalities of energy use through price mechanism: a developing country perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, S.C.

1995-01-01

As concern grows about the environmental aspect of energy use, it is increasingly suggested in recent years that energy pricing should take negative externalities of energy use into account. A large body of literature, both theoretical and applied, has grown up over the years proposing a variety of options and methods for internalising environmental costs. However, most of these theories and methods, developed in the industrialised countries, have hitherto neglected two aspects of developing economies: the existence of informal sector in the economy and widespread use of traditional energies. This paper discusses the issues related to internalising environmental costs through price mechanism when these two aspects are included. It also calls for a more careful analysis of energy and environmental policies. (author)

Machine Learning for Identifying Demand Patterns of Home Energy Management Systems with Dynamic Electricity Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Derck Koolen

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Energy management plays a crucial role in providing necessary system flexibility to deal with the ongoing integration of volatile and intermittent energy sources. Demand Response (DR programs enhance demand flexibility by communicating energy market price volatility to the end-consumer. In such environments, home energy management systems assist the use of flexible end-appliances, based upon the individual consumer’s personal preferences and beliefs. However, with the latter heterogeneously distributed, not all dynamic pricing schemes are equally adequate for the individual needs of households. We conduct one of the first large scale natural experiments, with multiple dynamic pricing schemes for end consumers, allowing us to analyze different demand behavior in relation with household attributes. We apply a spectral relaxation clustering approach to show distinct groups of households within the two most used dynamic pricing schemes: Time-Of-Use and Real-Time Pricing. The results indicate that a more effective design of smart home energy management systems can lead to a better fit between customer and electricity tariff in order to reduce costs, enhance predictability and stability of load and allow for more optimal use of demand flexibility by such systems.

Threshold effect of the economic growth rate on the renewable energy development from a change in energy price. Evidence from OECD countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Ting-Huan; Huang, Chien-Ming; Lee, Ming-Chih

2009-01-01

This paper uses a panel threshold regression (PTR) model to investigate the influence that energy prices have on renewable energy development under different economic growth rate regimes. The empirical data are obtained from each of the OECD member-countries over the period from 1997 to 2006. We show that there is one threshold in the regression relationship, which is 4.13% of a one-period lag in the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The consumer price index (CPI), in so far as it relates to variations in energy, is significantly positively correlated with the contribution of renewables to energy supply in the regime with higher-economic growth, but there is no relationship in the regime with lower economic growth. Therefore, countries characterized by high-economic growth are able to respond to high energy prices with increases in renewable energy use, while countries characterized by low-economic growth countries tend to be unresponsive to energy price changes when they come to their level of renewable energy. (author)

How Do Oil Prices, Macroeconomic Factors and Policies Affect the Market for Renewable Energy?:Oil Price, Macroeconomic Factors and Renewable Energy

OpenAIRE

Shah, Imran; Hiles, Carlie; Morley, Bruce

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine the nature of any relationship between renewable energy investment, oil prices, GDP and the interest rate, using a time series approach. We concentrate on three countries with different relationships to the renewable energy industry, with Norway and the UK being oil-exporters for most of the sample and the USA an importer. Following estimation using a VAR model, the results provide evidence of considerable heterogeneity across the countries, with the USA ...

The world energy demand in 2007: How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? June 9, 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? The growth of energy demand continued to accelerate in 2007 despite soaring prices, to reach 2,8 % (+ 0,3 point compared to 2006). This evolution results from two diverging trends: a shrink in energy consumption in most of OECD countries, except North America, and a strong increase in emerging countries. Within the OECD, two contrasting trends can be reported, that compensate each other partially: the reduction of energy consumption in Japan (-0.8%) and in Europe (-1.2%), particularly significant in the EU-15 (-1.9%); the increase of energy consumption in North America (+2%). Globally, the OECD overall consumption continued to increase slightly (+0.5%), while electricity increased faster (2,1%) and fuels remained stable. Elsewhere, the strong energy demand growth remained very dynamic (+5% for the total demand, 8% for electricity only), driven by China (+7.3%). The world oil demand increased by 1% only, but the demand has focused even more on captive end usages, transports and petrochemistry. The world gasoline and diesel demand increased by around 5,7% in 2007, and represents 53% of the total oil products demand in 2007 (51% in 2006). If gasoline and diesel consumption remained quasi-stable within OECD countries, the growth has been extremely strong in the emerging countries, despite booming oil prices. There are mainly two factors explaining this evolution where both oil demand and oil prices increased: Weak elasticity-prices to the demand in transport and petrochemistry sectors Disconnection of domestic fuel prices in major emerging countries (China, India, Latin America) compared to world oil market prices Another striking point is that world crude oil and condensate production remained almost stable in 2007, hence the entire demand growth was supported by destocking. During the same period, the OPEC production decreased by 1%, mainly due to the production decrease in Saudi Arabia, that is probably more

Simulation of current pricing-tendencies in the German electricity market for private consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, Moritz; Sensfuss, Frank; Wietschel, Martin

2007-01-01

The German electricity market for private consumption is characterized by increasing prices and low participation of the consumers. This prompts us to investigate the interdependencies between the customers' engagement in the market and the suppliers' pricing strategies. Based on an analysis of the German retail market, an agent-based simulation model is developed. Whereas the behaviour of private customers is calibrated on field data, the suppliers learn to maximize profits with a feedback-learning heuristic. The simulation results show a tendency of rising prices, which are created without the assumption of tacit collusion among suppliers. We conclude that in Germany the current market pressure of private customers may not be a sufficient incentive for suppliers to lower electricity prices. (author)

On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mercure, Jean-François; Salas, Pablo

2013-01-01

A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an endogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given. - Highlights: • Theoretical model to forecast marginal costs of non-renewable resources. • Tracks the consumption and costs of non-renewable resources. • For use in economic or technology models

A Simple Operating Strategy of Small-Scale Battery Energy Storages for Energy Arbitrage under Dynamic Pricing Tariffs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrico Telaretti

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Price arbitrage involves taking advantage of an electricity price difference, storing electricity during low-prices times, and selling it back to the grid during high-prices periods. This strategy can be exploited by customers in presence of dynamic pricing schemes, such as hourly electricity prices, where the customer electricity cost may vary at any hour of day, and power consumption can be managed in a more flexible and economical manner, taking advantage of the price differential. Instead of modifying their energy consumption, customers can install storage systems to reduce their electricity bill, shifting the energy consumption from on-peak to off-peak hours. This paper develops a detailed storage model linking together technical, economic and electricity market parameters. The proposed operating strategy aims to maximize the profit of the storage owner (electricity customer under simplifying assumptions, by determining the optimal charge/discharge schedule. The model can be applied to several kinds of storages, although the simulations refer to three kinds of batteries: lead-acid, lithium-ion (Li-ion and sodium-sulfur (NaS batteries. Unlike literature reviews, often requiring an estimate of the end-user load profile, the proposed operation strategy is able to properly identify the battery-charging schedule, relying only on the hourly price profile, regardless of the specific facility’s consumption, thanks to some simplifying assumptions in the sizing and the operation of the battery. This could be particularly useful when the customer load profile cannot be scheduled with sufficient reliability, because of the uncertainty inherent in load forecasting. The motivation behind this research is that storage devices can help to lower the average electricity prices, increasing flexibility and fostering the integration of renewable sources into the power system.

Aggregate industrial energy consumer response to wholesale prices in the restructured Texas electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zarnikau, Jay; Hallett, Ian

2008-01-01

The aggregate response of consumers to wholesale price signals is very limited in the restructured Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market. An overall average own-price elasticity of demand of - 0.000008 for industrial energy consumers served at transmission voltage is estimated using a Symmetric Generalized McFadden cost function model. To date, ERCOT has sought to promote demand response to price signals without reliance on 'stand alone' demand response programs, but with a market structure that is designed to facilitate economic demand response. This very limited responsiveness to wholesale price signals may prove problematic in light of policy decisions to pursue an 'energy only' resource adequacy mechanism for ERCOT. (author)

The growth of energy consumption and prices in the USA, West Germany, and the UK, 1950 to 1980

Science.gov (United States)

Doblin, C. P.

1982-05-01

The relationship between energy price and consumption was studied, especially reactions to oil price rises in the 1970's. Industrial, domestic, and road transportation energy consumption were examined. Until 1973, consumption rose steadily, while the inflation-adjusted price dropped. Immediate reaction to the two large price rises was a drop in consumption, but overall consumption continued to grow when the growth in total energy consumption was reversed. This change is due to adverse business conditions, displacement of coal by oil, oil by gas, and mineral fuels by electricity in given sectors, switches to less energy intensive activities, a change in the mix of gross national products, and weather conditions, as well as by price rises. Energy conservation measures had little impact.

Global panorama of energy access: Current situation, challenges and outlook

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galichon, Ines; Lacroix, Olivier; Wiedmer, Damien

2014-07-15

Globally 1.3 billion people do not have access to electricity. If this figure is projected to decline 1 billion by 2030, the global population who relies on the traditional use of biomass for cooking is expected to substantially increase, from 2.6 billion to 2.7 billion people. In its commitment to energy access, ENEA published a synthesis on the current situation and the further development perspectives of energy access worldwide, a crucial issue of human and economic development and an opportunity for the private sector. This synthesis present the ecosystem of the actors involved in the improvement of energy access and the technical solutions that serve the needs of this high-potential market. The five main challenges energy access has to address are presented in this publication: energy prices, equipment financing, distribution, change of scale and environmental performances.

Sustainable energy prices and growth. Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlroth, Sofia; Hoejer, Mattias

2007-01-01

How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they do not, mostly - they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them. Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth. The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low

Analysis of forestry region when changing energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loenner, G.; Nilsson, S.; Nordvall, H.O.

1986-10-01

Altered energy prices will reflect a possible nuclear power phaseout. The aim has been to elucidate the situation of the year 2000. The so called world bank model has been used. The forecasting is summarized and commented upon. The results are considering cutting, sawmills, board industry, pulp and paper industry and the social consequences

Oil price shocks and economy: an open question

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Marzio, G.

2006-01-01

During the 1970s and 1980s advanced oil importing economies faced the adverse effects of oil supply disruptions with abrupt energy price rise, followed by sensible business cycle inversions and stagflation. The negative effects of the sharp energy price increase were amplified by factors such the induced costly resources reallocation between labour and capital, and between sectors of activity; rising uncertainty discouraging investments, and income redistribution consequences on aggregate demands After a shock the economic system generally adjusts in favour of less energy intensive industries; this leads pauses in production as part of the existing capital stock become obsolete, and causes resources under utilization. Since the 1970s a number of economists have been sceptical about why even large price shocks in a resource that accounts for less than 3-4 pct. of global GDP could cause losses of magnitude as those experienced in most advanced economies. They believe that monetary policy has played a role in generating the observed negative correlation between oil prices and economic activity, and question whether the post-oil-shock recessions were attributable to the oil price shocks themselves or to the monetary policy responding to these shocks. Empirical research largely shows a primary responsibility of large price shocks and major oil-supply disruptions on recessionary movements of GDP. Energy prices have risen sharply since 2003, driven by strengthening global demand; market fundamentals suggest that a considerable fraction of recent hikes will be permanent and current price levels remain credible. With limited spare capacity, the medium term oil supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, and the price probably near current levels. Today' s high oil prices reflect the effects of sustained energy demand trends and, jointly, oil industry under investment during and after the low price era of the 1990s. The apparent moderate macro economic effects of the

A Three-Part Electricity Price Mechanism for Photovoltaic-Battery Energy Storage Power Plants Considering the Power Quality and Ancillary Service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yajing Gao

2017-08-01

Full Text Available To solve the problem of solar abandoning, which is accompanied by the rapid development of photovoltaic (PV power generation, a demonstration of a photovoltaic-battery energy storage system (PV-BESS power plant has been constructed in Qinghai province in China. However, it is difficult for the PV-BESS power plant to survive and develop with the current electricity price mechanism and subsidy policy. In this paper, a three-part electricity price mechanism is proposed based on a deep analysis of the construction and operation costs and economic income. The on-grid electricity price is divided into three parts: the capacity price, graded electricity price, and ancillary service price. First, to ensure that the investment of the PV-BESS power plant would achieve the industry benchmark income, the capacity price and benchmark electricity price are calculated using the discounted cash flow method. Then, the graded electricity price is calculated according to the grade of the quality of grid-connected power. Finally, the ancillary service price is calculated based on the graded electricity price and ancillary service compensation. The case studies verify the validity of the three-part electricity price mechanism. The verification shows that the three-part electricity price mechanism can help PV-BESS power plants to obtain good economic returns, which can promote the development of PV-BESS power plants.

Pricing electricity for sustainability : climate change and Canada's electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The electricity sector is Canada's largest single source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper discussed electricity and carbon pricing approaches to reducing GHG emissions in the electricity sector. An overview of the links between electricity pricing and climate change was presented, and current and emerging trends in electricity pricing related to encouraging energy conservation were reviewed. Market prices and failures were discussed. Approaches to pricing electricity included an increase in block prices; time-of-use prices; demand-side management and energy efficiency; and carbon pricing in Canada and electricity pricing signals. The study showed that several provincial utilities in Canada are experimenting with market-based pricing approaches for electricity and carbon that may help to reduce GHG emissions over time. Concerns over electricity supply and the negative environmental impacts of electricity production may lead to the full social pricing of electricity in some regions of Canada. 46 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

Advances in electric power and energy systems load and price forecasting

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally. Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial ar nas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become nece...

Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts. The DOE's energy price forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.; Boris, Keith

2009-01-01

The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. 'A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.' International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103-117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided. (author)

Trends in prices to commercial energy consumers in the competitive Texas electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zarnikau, Jay; Fox, Marilyn; Smolen, Paul

2007-01-01

To date, the price of electricity to commercial or business energy consumers has generally increased at greater rates in the areas of Texas where retail competition has been introduced than in areas that do not enjoy competition. Trends in commercial competitive prices have largely mirrored trends in residential prices. Market restructuring has tended to increase the sensitivity of retail electricity prices to changes in the price of natural gas, the marginal fuel used for generation in Texas. Consequently, the rapid increases in the commodity price of natural gas following restructuring led to increases in competitive electric rates which exceeded the increases in areas not exposed to restructuring, where the fuel component of electric rates tend to reflect a weighted average of the utilities' fuel costs. There is some evidence that pricing behavior by competitive retailers changed when the retailers affiliated with the incumbent utilities were permitted some pricing flexibility, resulting in a reduction in prices. (author)

The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

2011-01-01

The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

Wind energy and electricity prices. Exploring the 'merit order effect'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morthost, P.E.; Ray, S.; Munksgaard, J.; Sinner, A.F.

2010-04-01

This report focuses on the effect of wind energy on the electricity price in the power market. As the report will discuss, adding wind into the power mix has a significant influence on the resulting price of electricity, the so called merit order effect (MOE). The merit order effect has been quantified and discussed in many scientific publications. This report ends the first phase of a study on the MOE, evaluating the impact of EWEA's 2020 scenarios on future European electricity prices. The basic principles of the merit order effect are provided in the first part of the document. The literature review itself contains methods and tools not only to quantify the merit order effect but also in order to forecast its future range and volume.

Marginal-cost pricing for Hydro-Quebec residential customers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paquin, C.

1994-02-01

An option available to governments and to utilities such as Hydro-Quebec for responding to objectives of energy efficiency is the adoption of marginal cost pricing. Compared to currently used price structures, marginal cost pricing will allow improvement of price signals and assure an optimal utilization of the resource. That type of pricing could be economically beneficial but may not be desirable from the point of view of revenue distribution. Taking account of Hydro-Quebec's cost structure, pure marginal cost pricing would generate an income that would be strongly contested on equity grounds. For example, it would raise prices 60% for residential customers. Faced with this possibility, an analysis is presented of the impact of a peak-offpeak pricing (or pure marginal cost pricing) on Hydro-Quebec's residential customer energy bills. The marginal costs of Hydro-Quebec are calculated by the method of Bernard and Chatel (1985) and analysis of the results is based on Friedman and Weare (1993). A sample of 28,417 residential customers from a 1989 Hydro-Quebec survey is used in the study. Two scenarios are analyzed; the first allowing comparison of the energy bill only on the basis of marginal costs and of average costs, and the second allowing comparison of the impact of marginal cost pricing on the total bill. In the first scenario, the impact translates into a 31% increase in energy bills for the entire customer class considered; in addition, this impact is inversely proportional to the revenue class. In the second scenario, the increase is 24%. 33 refs., 10 figs., 53 tabs

Dynamic pricing based on a cloud computing framework to support the integration of renewable energy sources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rajeev Thankappan Nair

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Integration of renewable energy sources into the electric grid in the domestic sector results in bidirectional energy flow from the supply side of the consumer to the grid. Traditional pricing methods are difficult to implement in such a situation of bidirectional energy flow and they face operational challenges on the application of price-based demand side management programme because of the intermittent characteristics of renewable energy sources. In this study, a dynamic pricing method using real-time data based on a cloud computing framework is proposed to address the aforementioned issues. The case study indicates that the dynamic pricing captures the variation of energy flow in the household. The dynamic renewable factor introduced in the model supports consumer oriented pricing. A new method is presented in this study to determine the appropriate level of photovoltaic (PV penetration in the distribution system based on voltage stability aspect. The load flow study result for the electric grid in Kerala, India, indicates that the overvoltage caused by various PV penetration levels up to 33% is within the voltage limits defined for distribution feeders. The result justifies the selected level of penetration.

An energy pricing scheme for the diffusion of decentralized renewable technology investment in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thiam, Djiby Racine

2011-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate price support for market penetration of renewable energy in developing nations through a decentralized supply process. We integrate the new decentralized energy support: renewable premium tariff, to analyze impacts of tariff incentives on the diffusion of renewable technology in Senegal. Based on photovoltaic and wind technologies and an assessment of renewable energy resources in Senegal, an optimization technique is combined with a cash flow analysis to investigate investment decisions in renewable energy sector. Our findings indicate that this support mechanism could strengthen the sustainable deployment of renewable energy in remote areas of Senegal. Although different payoffs emerged, profits associated with a renewable premium tariff are the highest among the set of existing payoffs. Moreover in analyzing impacts of price incentives on social welfare, we show that price tariffing schemes must be strategically scrutinized in order to minimize welfare loss associated with price incentives. Finally we argue that a sustainable promotion of incentive mechanisms supporting deployment of renewable technology in developing nations should be carried out under reliable institutional structures. The additional advantage of the proposed methodology is its ability to integrate different stakeholders (producers, investors and consumers) in the planning process. - Highlights: → We simulate impacts of price support for market penetration of renewable technology in developing nations. → An array of price incentive mechanisms strengthens diffusion of renewable technology in Senegal. → Moreover, reliable institutional frameworks in developing nations are a requirement in order to strengthen diffusion path of renewable technologies.

Reimbursed Price of Orphan Drugs: Current Strategies and Potential Improvements.

Science.gov (United States)

Mincarone, Pierpaolo; Leo, Carlo Giacomo; Sabina, Saverio; Sarriá-Santamera, Antonio; Taruscio, Domenica; Serrano-Aguilar, Pedro Guillermo; Kanavos, Panos

2017-01-01

The pricing and reimbursement policies for pharmaceuticals are relevant to balance timely and equitable access for all patients, financial sustainability, and reward for valuable innovation. The proliferation of high-cost specialty medicines is particularly true in rare diseases (RDs) where the pricing mechanism is characterised by a lack of transparency. This work provides an overall picture of current strategies for the definition of the reimbursed prices of orphan drugs (ODs) and highlights some potential improvements. Current strategies and suggestions are presented along 4 dimensions: (1) comprehensive value assessment, (2) early dialogs among relevant stakeholders, (3) innovative reimbursement approaches, and (4) societal participation in producing ODs. Comprehensive value assessment could be achieved by clarifying the approach of distributive justice to adopt, ensuring a representative participation of stakeholders, and with a broad consideration of value-bearing factors. With respect to early dialogs, cross-border cooperation can be determinant to companies and agencies. The cost-benefit ratio of early dialogs needs to be demonstrated and the "regulatory capture" effect should be monitored. Innovative reimbursement approaches were developed to balance the need for evidence-based decisions with the timely access to innovative drugs. The societal participation in producing ODs needs to be recognised in a collaborating framework where adaptive agreements can be developed with mutual satisfaction. Such agreements could also impact on coverage and reimbursement decisions as additional elements for the determination of a comprehensive societal value of ODs. Further research is needed to investigate the highlighted open challenges so that RDs will not remain, in practical terms, orphan diseases. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Energy prices in the EU: France is less expensive for electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-12-01

This article proposes a comparison of electricity and gas prices among the European Union countries in 2008. It outlines that the price of electricity in France is among the cheapest, that taxes are higher in northern European countries as far as electricity is concerned, that the price of gas in France is in the average and that taxing in Europe is less for gas than for electricity. The existence of carbon taxes or climate-energy contributions in some countries is briefly presented (in Sweden since 1991, in Denmark since 1992, in Finland since 1994, in Slovenia since 1997 and in Great-Britain since 2001)

Entropy, pricing and macroeconomics of pumped-storage systems

Science.gov (United States)

Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2014-05-01

We propose a pricing scheme for the enhancement of macroeconomic performance of pumped-storage systems, based on the statistical properties of both geophysical and economic variables. The main argument consists in the need of a context of economic values concerning the hub energy resource; defined as the resource that comprises the reference energy currency for all involved renewable energy sources (RES) and discounts all related uncertainty. In the case of pumped-storage systems the hub resource is the reservoir's water, as a benchmark for all connected intermittent RES. The uncertainty of all involved natural and economic processes is statistically quantifiable by entropy. It is the relation between the entropies of all involved RES that shapes the macroeconomic state of the integrated pumped-storage system. Consequently, there must be consideration on the entropy of wind, solar and precipitation patterns, as well as on the entropy of economic processes -such as demand preferences on either current energy use or storage for future availability. For pumped-storage macroeconomics, a price on the reservoir's capacity scarcity should also be imposed in order to shape a pricing field with upper and lower limits for the long-term stability of the pricing range and positive net energy benefits, which is the primary issue of the generalized deployment of pumped-storage technology. Keywords: Entropy, uncertainty, pricing, hub energy resource, RES, energy storage, capacity scarcity, macroeconomics

Utility Green Pricing Programs: Design, Implementation, and Consumer Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bird, L.; Swezey, B.; Aabakken, J.

2004-02-01

The term green pricing refers to programs offered by utilities in traditionally regulated electricity markets, which allow customers to support the development of renewable energy sources by paying a small premium on their electric bills. Since the introduction of the concept in the United States, the number of unique utility green pricing programs has expanded from just a few programs in 1993 to more than 90 in 2002. About 10% of U.S. utilities offered a green pricing option to about 26 million consumers by the end of 2002. This report provides: (1) aggregate industry data on consumer response to utility programs, which indicate the collective impact of green pricing on renewable energy development nationally; and (2) market data that can be used by utilities as a benchmark for gauging the relative success of their green pricing programs. Specifically, the paper presents current data and trends in consumer response to green pricing, as measured by renewable energy sales, participants, participation rates, and new renewable energy capacity supported. It presents data on various aspects of program design and implementation, such as product pricing, ownership of supplies, retention rates, marketing costs, the effectiveness of marketing techniques, and methods of enrolling and providing value to customers.

DCCA analysis of renewable and conventional energy prices

Science.gov (United States)

Paiva, Aureliano Sancho Souza; Rivera-Castro, Miguel Angel; Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva

2018-01-01

Here we investigate the inter-influence of oil prices and renewable energy sources. The non-stationary time series are scrutinized within the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) framework, where the resulting DCCA coefficient provides a useful and reliable index to the evaluate the cross correlation between events at the same time instant as well as at a suitably chosen time lags. The analysis is based on the quotient of two successive daily closing oil prices and composite indices of renewable energy sources in USA and Europe in the period 2006-2015, which was subject to several social and economic driving forces, as the increase of social pressure in favor of the use of non-fossil energy sources and the worldwide economic crisis that started in 2008. The DCCA coefficient is evaluated for different window sizes, extracting information for short and long term correlation between the indices. Particularly, strong correlation between the behavior of the two distinct economic sectors are observed for large time intervals during the worst period of the economic crisis (2008-2012), hinting at a very cautious behavior of the economic agents. Before and after this period, the behavior of two economic sectors are overwhelmingly uncorrelated or very weakly correlated. The results reported here may be useful to select proper strategies in future similar scenarios.

Proceedings of the Fourth Forum: Energy Day of Croatia, Prices and Tariff Policy in Energy Supply; Zbornik radova Cetvrtoga foruma: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj, Cijene i tarifna politika u energetici

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-12-31

The principle topic of the four Forums ``Croatian Energy Day`` was ``prices and tariff policy in energy supply``. 23 papers were presented, which were subdivided into four groups: 16th World Energy Council Congress, planning and prices in energetics, oil and natural gas prices and tariffs, and electric energy prices and tariffs.

A framework for diagnosing the regional impacts of energy price policies. An application to natural gas deregulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bender, S.; Kalt, J.P.; Lee, H.

1986-03-01

Energy policy debates in the U.S. have frequently centered upon asserted regional effects. 'Consuming' regions are commonly pitted against 'producing' regions, with the latter purportedly gaining/losing at the expense of the former under higher/lower energy prices. Such simple views ignore regional trade linkages, the geographic distribution of ownership in energy using and producing firms, and the microeconomics of the incidence of energy price changes. This study presents a framework which incorporates these factors and allows assessment of the net regional income effects of changing energy prices. When applied to U.S. natural gas policy, the study's results indicate that the income effects of a rise in gas prices tend to be much more evenly spread than a naive assignment of increased costs and revenues to consuming and producing regions, respectively, would indicate. Under a number of plausible scenarios, in fact, it is likely that certain net gas consuming regions (e.g., the Pacific Northwest) have benefitted from the recent deregulation of U.S. gas prices. 14 refs. (A.V.)

A revisit of fossil-fuel subsidies in China: Challenges and opportunities for energy price reform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Boqiang; Ouyang, Xiaoling

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We measure fossil-fuel subsidies and effects of subsidy removal in a systematic fashion during 2006–2010. • Fossil-fuel subsidies scale of China was CNY 881.94 billion in 2010, equivalent to 2.59% of GDP. • Impacts of removing subsidies on macroeconomic variables are examined by the CGE model. • Future policy should focus on designing transparent, targeted and efficient energy subsidies. - Abstract: Fossil-fuel subsidies contribute to the extensive growth of energy demand and the related carbon dioxide emissions in China. However, the process of energy price reform is slow, even though China faces increasing problems of energy scarcity and environmental deterioration. This paper focuses on analyzing fossil fuel subsidies in China by estimating subsidies scale and the implications for future reform. We begin by measuring fossil-fuel subsidies and the effects of subsidy removal in a systematic fashion during 2006–2010 using a price-gap approach. Results indicate that the oil price reform in 2009 significantly reduced China’s fossil-fuel subsidies and modified the subsidy structure. Fossil-fuel subsidies scale in China was 881.94 billion CNY in 2010, which was lower than the amount in 2006, equivalent to 2.59% of the GDP. The macro-economic impacts of removing fossil-fuel subsidies are then evaluated by the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Results demonstrate that the economic growth and employment will be negatively affected as well as energy demand, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions. Finally, policy implications are suggested: first, risks of government pricing of energy are far from negligible; second, an acceptable macroeconomic impact is a criterion for energy price reform in China; third, the future energy policy should focus on designing transparent, targeted and efficient energy subsidies

Pulp & paper markets cope with high energy prices and growth in Asia : markets for paper, paperboard and woodpulp, 2005-2006

Science.gov (United States)

Peter J. Ince

2006-01-01

\\tPulp and paper markets in the UNECE region were influenced by higher energy prices and demand growth in Asia in 2005 and 2006. Important developments in Europe included the launching of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which was followed by substantial increases in electrical energy prices. High global energy prices pushed up costs of production and prices for pulp...

Current and future industrial energy service characterizations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krawiec, F.; Thomas, T.; Jackson, F.; Limaye, D.R.; Isser, S.; Karnofsky, K.; Davis, T.D.

1980-10-01

Current and future energy demands, end uses, and cost used to characterize typical applications and resultant services in the industrial sector of the United States and 15 selected states are examined. A review and evaluation of existing industrial energy data bases was undertaken to assess their potential for supporting SERI research on: (1) market suitability analysis, (2) market development, (3) end-use matching, (3) industrial applications case studies, and (4) identification of cost and performance goals for solar systems and typical information requirements for industrial energy end use. In reviewing existing industrial energy data bases, the level of detail, disaggregation, and primary sources of information were examined. The focus was on fuels and electric energy used for heat and power purchased by the manufacturing subsector and listed by 2-, 3-, and 4-digit SIC, primary fuel, and end use. Projections of state level energy prices to 1990 are developed using the energy intensity approach. The effects of federal and state industrial energy conservation programs on future industrial sector demands were assessed. Future end-use energy requirements were developed for each 4-digit SIC industry and were grouped as follows: (1) hot water, (2) steam (212 to 300/sup 0/F, each 100/sup 0/F interval from 300 to 1000/sup 0/F, and greater than 1000/sup 0/F), and (3) hot air (100/sup 0/F intervals). Volume I details the activities performed in this effort.

Capacity adequacy in power markets facing energy transition: A comparison of scarcity pricing and capacity mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petitet, Marie; Finon, Dominique; Janssen, Tanguy

2017-01-01

This article analyses how a capacity mechanism can address security of supply objectives in a power market undergoing an energy transition that combines energy efficiency efforts to stabilise demand and a rapid increase in the proportion of renewables. To analyse this situation, power markets are simulated over the long term with a System Dynamics model integrating new investment and closure decisions. This last trait is relevant to studying investment in power generation in mature markets undergoing policy shocks. The energy-only market design with a price cap, with and without a capacity mechanism, is compared to scarcity pricing in two investment behaviour scenarios with and without risk aversion. The results show that the three market designs lead to different levels of risk for peaking unit investment and results thus differ according to which risk aversion hypothesis is adopted. Assuming a risk-neutral investor, the results indicate that compared to an energy-only market with a price cap at 3 000 €/MWh, an energy-only market with scarcity pricing and the market design with a capacity mechanism are two efficient options to reach similar levels of load loss. But under the hypothesis of risk aversion, the results highlight the advantage of the capacity mechanism over scarcity pricing. - Highlights: • Investment decisions in electricity markets are simulated by a System Dynamics model. • Capacity mechanism enhances capacity adequacy compared to the energy-only market. • With no risk aversion, capacity mechanism or scarcity pricing provide similar results. • With risk aversion, capacity mechanism appears to be the preferable market design.

Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

Science.gov (United States)

McCollum, David L.; Jewell, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Bazilian, Morgan; Fay, Marianne; Riahi, Keywan

2016-07-01

Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

Intermittently renewable energy, optimal capacity mix and prices in a deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milstein, Irena; Tishler, Asher

2011-01-01

This paper assesses the effect of intermittently renewable energy on generation capacity mix and market prices. We consider two generating technologies: (1) conventional fossil-fueled technology such as combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), and (2) sunshine-dependent renewable technology such as photovoltaic cells (PV). In the first stage of the model (game), when only the probability distribution functions of future daily electricity demand and sunshine are known, producers maximize their expected profits by determining the CCGT and PV capacity to be constructed. In the second stage, once daily demand and sunshine conditions become known, each producer selects the daily production by each technology, taking the capacities of both technologies as given, and subject to the availability of the PV capacity, which can be used only if the sun is shining. Using real-world data for Israel, we confirm that the introduction of PV technology amplifies price volatility. A large reduction in PV capacity cost increases PV adoption but may also raise the average price. Thus, when considering the promotion of renewable energy to reduce CO 2 emissions, regulators should assess the behavior of the electricity market, particularly with respect to characteristics of renewable technologies and demand and supply uncertainties. - Research Highlights: → This paper assesses the effect of intermittently renewable energy on generation capacity mix and market prices. → We consider two generating technologies: (1) conventional fossil-fueled technology such as CCGT and (2) sunshine-dependent renewable technology such as photovoltaic cells (PV). →Using real-world data for Israel, we confirm that the introduction of PV technology amplifies price volatility. → A large reduction in PV capacity cost increases PV adoption but may also raise the average price.

Energy price risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evans, J.W.G.

1998-01-01

While long term, fixed price contracts for fuel procurement and export of excess power may lock in the economics of a CHP plant, these do not necessarily give the best pricing opportunities that may exist during the life of those contracts. A more prudent approach may be to vary the length of the contracts and markets are now developing in gas and electricity to assist in the management of such a portfolio. (Author)

The supply price control: issues for review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Littlechild, S.

1993-01-01

In this article, the Director General of the Office of Electricity Regulation (OFFER) sets out the issues involved in the current review of supply price controls for the twelve regional electricity companies (RECs) in the United Kingdom. The Government's current energy policy is outlined, drawing a distinction between electricity from fossil and non-fossil fuel sources. RECs are obliged by the licencees to purchase economically and OFFER seeks to monitor this process, both within Government limits. This history of price controls is outlined and the author considers what form the next supply control should take, bearing in mind generation costs and aims towards energy efficiency. The OFFER consultative document has now been published and public debate of these issues will follow. (UK)

An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2004-10-01

The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2

Energy consumption and energy R and D in OECD: Perspectives from oil prices and economic growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leng Wong, Siang; Chia, Wai-Mun; Chang, Youngho

2013-01-01

We estimate the short-run and long-run elasticities of various types of energy consumption and energy R and D to changes in oil prices and income of the 20 OECD countries over the period of 1980–2010 using the Nerlove partial adjustment model (NPAM). We find negative income elasticity for coal consumption but positive income elasticity for oil and gas consumption suggesting the importance of economic growth in encouraging the usage of cleaner energy from coal to oil and gas. By introducing time dummies into the regressions, we show that climatic mitigation policies are able to promote the usage of cleaner energies. Through the dynamic linkages between energy consumption and energy R and D, we find that fossil fuel consumption promotes fossil fuel R and D and fossil fuel R and D in turn drives its own consumption. Renewable energy R and D which is more responsive to economic growth reduces fossil fuel consumption and hence fossil fuel R and D. - Highlights: • Economic growth encourages the use of cleaner forms of energy. • Economic growth promotes renewable energy R and D. • Subsidies for renewable energy R and D promote renewable energy consumption. • Fossil fuel R and D promotes fossil fuel consumption in countries with oil reserves. • Oil consumption reduces significantly with higher oil prices

Is there dependence and systemic risk between oil and renewable energy stock prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reboredo, Juan C.

2015-01-01

We study systemic risk and dependence between oil and renewable energy markets using copulas to characterize the dependence structure and to compute the conditional value-at-risk as a measure of systemic risk. We found significant time-varying average and symmetric tail dependence between oil returns and several global and sectoral renewable energy indices. Our evidence on systemic risk indicates that oil price dynamics significantly contributes around 30% to downside and upside risk of renewable energy companies. These results have important implications for risk management and renewable energy policies. - Highlights: • We study systemic risk and dependence between oil and renewable energy markets. • Dependence and conditional value-at-risk is obtained through copulas. • Oil and renewable energy displayed time-varying average and symmetric tail dependence. • Oil price contribution to the downside and upside risks of renewable energy companies was around 30%

Effect of Energy Efficiency Standards on Natural Gas Prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carnall, Michael; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

2011-07-26

A primary justification for the establishment of energy efficiency standards for home appliances is the existence of information deficiencies and externalities in the market for appliances. For example, when a long-term homeowner purchases a new gas-fired water heater, she will maximize the value of her purchase by comparing the life-cycle cost of ownership of available units, including both total installed cost - purchase price plus installation costs - and operating cost in the calculus. Choice of the appliance with the lowest life-cycle costs leads to the most economically efficient balance between capital cost and fuel cost. However, if the purchaser's expected period of ownership is shorter than the useful life of the appliance, or the purchaser does not pay for the fuel used by the appliance, as is often the case with rental property, fuel cost will be external to her costs, biasing her decision toward spending less on fuel efficiency and resulting in the purchase of an appliance with greater than optimal fuel usage. By imposing an efficiency standard on appliances, less efficient appliances are made unavailable, precluding less efficient purchases and reducing fuel usage. The reduction in fuel demanded by residential users affects the total demand for such fuels as natural gas, for example. Reduced demand implies that residential customers are willing to purchase less gas at each price level. That is, the demand curve, labeled D{sub 0} in Figure 1, shifts to the left to D{sub 1}. If there is no change in the supply function, the supply curve will intersect the demand curve at a lower price. Residential demand is only one component of the total demand for natural gas. It is possible that total demand will decline very little if demand in other sectors increases substantially in response to a decline in the price. If demand does decrease, modeling studies generally confirm the intuition that reductions in demand for natural gas will result in reductions

Energy prices and the urban poor in India: Some policy imperatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhatia, R.

1989-01-01

The objectives of this paper are: to study the pattern of domestic energy consumption of poor people in selected urban centers in India; to analyse the role of prices in determining the cost of providing energy for lighting and cooking in these urban areas; and to suggest policy alternatives which can reduce the cost meeting basic energy needs of the urban poor. Refs, 10 tabs

Nuclear energy: current situation and prospects to 2020.

Science.gov (United States)

Ion, Sue

2007-04-15

For close to half a century nuclear fission has been providing reliable supplies of electricity to the UK, with virtually no emissions of carbon dioxide. Over that period, the UK nuclear industry has avoided the emission of over one and a half billion tonnes of CO2. Yet no nuclear plant has been built in the UK for over two decades even though many of the stations in our current fleet are now within a decade or so of the end of their lifetime. Without new plants being ordered soon, the UK's nuclear capacity will decline dramatically, from 23% today to 3% post-2020--just as considerations of supply security and climate change are becoming increasingly important. Elsewhere in the world, many countries such as China, India, Japan, South Korea, Finland and France are building new stations. Other countries such as the USA, South Africa, and some nations that currently do not have nuclear stations (such as Indonesia and Poland) are making preparations for future nuclear stations. Globally capacity factors for nuclear plants are higher than they have ever been, averaging around 85% and with the best stations achieving well over 90%. Lifetime can be 60 years. That the economics of such stations compete well with other technologies is well founded and easily verifiable--especially in the face of rising fossil fuel prices and the pricing in of costs for CO2 emissions--both of which stand to improve the economics of nuclear energy still further. Waste volumes arising from modern plants are just a fraction of those of some earlier stations, and the technologies are in place to deal with them safely and effectively. Following recent reviews and international developments, there is growing confidence that internationally available competitive designs of nuclear plant will provide part of the solution to the UK's long-term energy needs.

Energy market barometer report - Winter 2015

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schleich, Joachim; Cartel, Melodie; Javaudin, Laurent; Molecke, Greg; Olsthoorn, Mark; Vernay, Anne-Lorene

2016-01-01

This Winter 2015 edition of the Grenoble Ecole de Management (GEM) Energy Market Barometer gauged the expectations of French energy experts regarding the low oil price and its consequences on alternative energy technologies. The experts were also asked about the investment climate for energy technologies in France. Key findings: - The energy experts consider the current low oil price a temporary phenomenon. The price of a barrel of crude oil (Brent) to reach US$ 55 at the end of the year (2016). About three quarters of respondents expect the price of oil to increase in 5 years and to exceed US$ 100 per barrel within 10 years. - The current weak price of crude oil is thought to have an adverse impact on the amount of investment in renewables for heat generation, in biofuels, and in energy efficiency technologies. - The experts view the current regulatory environment in France for investments in renewables, e-mobility, smart grids and energy efficiency favorably. They expect it to continue to improve over the next 5 years. However, nuclear energy and natural gas will not see their investment climate improved. - The recent developments on the global and national political stage have not moved most energy and CO_2 price expectations. The experts chart a progressive yet under-whelming raise in the price of CO_2 certificates in the medium to long term, from currently 8.5 euro/ton to euro 10-15 euro/ton in 5 years and 20-25 euro/ton in 10 years. - Prices of electricity, oil and natural gas are expected to rise in the medium term but remain stable over the next six months temporary phenomenon. Coal is the only energy carrier for which experts expect a decrease in price over the next five years

The bio-energies development: the role of biofuels and the CO{sub 2} price

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jouvet, Pierre-Andre [Universite Paris Ouest Nanterre La Defense, Climate Economics Chair (France); Lantz, Frederic [IFP Energies nouvelles, 1-4, avenue de Bois-Preau, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison Cedex (France); Le Cadre, Elodie [IFPEN, INRA, Universite Paris Ouest Nanterre La Defense (France)

2012-07-01

Reduction in energy dependency and emissions of CO{sub 2} via renewable energies targeted in the European Union energy mix and taxation system, might trigger the production of bio-energy production and competition for biomass utilization. Torrefied biomass could be used to produce second generation biofuels to replace some of the fuels used in transportation and is also suitable as feedstock to produce electricity in large quantities. This paper examines how the CO{sub 2} price affects demand of torrefied biomass in the power sector and its consequences on the profitability of second generation biofuel units (Biomass to Liquid units). Indeed, the profitability of the BtL units which are supplied only by torrefied biomass is related to the competitive demand of the power sector driven by the CO{sub 2} price and feed-in tariffs. We propose a linear dynamic model of supply and demand. On the supply side, a profit-maximizing torrefied biomass sector is modelled. The model aims to represent the transformation of biomass into torrefied biomass which could be sold to the refinery sector and the power sector. A two-sided (demanders and supplier) bidding process led us to arrive at the equilibrium price for torrefied biomass. The French case is used as an example. Our results suggest that the higher the CO{sub 2} price, the more stable and important the power sector demand. It also makes the torrefied biomass production less vulnerable to uncertainty on demand coming from the refining sector. The torrefied biomass co-firing with coal can offer a near-term market for the torrefied biomass for a CO{sub 2} emission price lower than 20 euros/tCO{sub 2}, which can stimulate development of biomass supply systems. Beyond 2020, the demand for torrefied biomass from the power sector could be substituted by the refining sector if the oil price goes up whatever the CO{sub 2} price. (authors)

Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

This publication by the National Energy Board is part of a continuing program of assessing applications for long-term natural gas export licences. The market-based procedure used by the Board is based on the premise that the marketplace will generally operate in a way that will ensure that Canadian requirements for natural gas will be met at fair market prices. The market--based procedure consists of a public hearing and a monitoring component. The monitoring component involves the on-going assessment of Canadian energy markets to provide analyses of major energy commodities on either an individual or integrated commodity basis. This report is the result of the most recent assessment . It identifies factors that affect natural gas prices and describes the functioning of regional markets in Canada. It provides an overview of the energy demand, including recent trends, reviews the North American gas supply and markets, the natural gas pricing dynamics in Canada, and a regional analysis of markets, prices and dynamics in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. In general, demand growth outstripped growth in supply, but natural gas producers throughout North America have been responding to the current high price environment with aggressive drilling programs. The Board anticipates that in time, there will be a supply and demand response and accompanying relief in natural gas prices. A review of the annual weighted average border price paid for Alberta gas indicates that domestic gas users paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices converged, suggesting that Canadians have had access to natural gas at prices no less favourable than export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems such as NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had significant impact on the pricing of natural gas. These systems, by providing timely information to market participants. enables them to manage price

Distributional implications of higher energy prices in the UK

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Common, M

1985-06-01

Results presented are consistent with the claim that higher energy prices are regressive in impact in the UK. However, the size of the impact on the worst affected is not found to be as great as might be expected. It is not at all obvious that the size of impact established is such as to justify the use of terms such as fuel poverty or arguments for the subsidization of fuels purchased by those on low incomes. This is not to say that low income households in the UK have not in the last decade had serious problems with fuel bills. The evidence of, for example, the Supplementary Benefits Commission (1979) makes it obvious that large numbers of households have experienced real problems. However, from the evidence considered here, it is reasonable to suggest that the origin of such problems lies more with the technical characteristics of the consumption act, and with institutional arrangements for payment, in respect of heating and lighting, than with impact of higher fuel prices as such. Gas and electricity consumption is not readily monitored as use occurs, and payment is often by billing well after consumption. Casual observation suggests that the difficulties with fuel bills as reported to welfare agencies are predominantly difficulties with gas and electricity bills. The results also show that of the total impact of higher energy prices on cost of living indices, only 50% arises via the consumption of fuels in the home.

Unit root behavior in energy futures prices

OpenAIRE

Serletis, Apostolos

1992-01-01

This paper re-examines the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, tests for unit roots in the univariate time-series representation of the daily crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline series are performed using recent state-of-the-art methodology. The results show that the unit root hypothesis can be rejected if allowance is made for the possibility of a one-time break in the intercept and the slope of the trend function at an unknown po...

A co-integration analysis of the price and income elasticities of energy demand in Turkish agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tuerkekul, Berna; Unakitan, Goekhan

2011-01-01

Agriculture has an important role in every country's development. Particularly, the contribution of agriculture to development and competitiveness is increasing with agricultural productivity growth. Productivity, in turn, is closely associated with direct and indirect use of energy as an input. Therefore, the importance of energy in agriculture cannot be denied as one of the basic inputs to the economic growth process. Following the importance of energy in Turkish agriculture, this study aims to estimate the long- and short-run relationship of energy consumption, agricultural GDP, and energy prices via co-integration and error correction (ECM) analysis. Annual data from 1970 to 2008 for diesel and electricity consumptions are utilized to estimate long-run and short-run elasticities. According to ECM analysis, for the diesel demand model, the long-run income and price elasticities were calculated as 1.47 and -0.38, respectively. For the electricity demand model, income and price elasticities were calculated at 0.19 and -0.72, respectively, in the long run. Briefly, in Turkey, support for energy use in agriculture should be continued in order to ensure sustainability in agriculture, increase competitiveness in international markets, and balance farmers' income. - Research highlights: → We estimate the long and short run elasticities for diesel and electricity demands in agriculture. → The long-run income and price elasticities calculated as 1.47 and 0.38, respectively for diesel. → The long run Income and price elasticities calculated as 0.19 and 0.72 for electricity.

Current problems of the Bulgarian energy industry against the background of global short-term energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batov, S.

1999-01-01

The energy demand during the next century due first of all to the expected growth of population necessitates more efficient technologies and huge investments. The production of nuclear energy requires higher safety as well as reduction of costs. A new form of partnership between the developed and developing countries is needed for transferring capital and technologies at special framework terms in order to avoid errors in the process of transition. The Energy Forum'99 highlights the current problems of Bulgarian energy branch and the projects for its future including better utilization of the existing energy resources, for development of new or renewable energy sources, not well utilized at present, and to harmonize the sector with better environmental protection. The most important problems discussed are: 1. Structure and restructuring strategy of the energy sector. Prices and tariffs. Privatization aspects. Construction of new replacement generating capacities; 2. Thermal power plants; 3. Nuclear power plants; 4. District heating and natural gas supply; 5. Efficient energy utilization; 6. Renewable energy sources; 7. Environmental protection and 8. Education

10 CFR 218.12 - Pricing.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Pricing. 218.12 Section 218.12 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OIL STANDBY MANDATORY INTERNATIONAL OIL ALLOCATION Supply Orders § 218.12 Pricing. The price for oil subject to a supply order issued pursuant to this subpart shall be based on the price conditions...

Bill project introducing a progressive price fixing of energy - Nr 150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brottes, Francois; Le Roux, Bruno

2012-01-01

This bill project aims at speeding up energy transition by inciting households to reduce their consumption, and at accompanying the unavoidable increase of energy prices. It introduces a rather complex process to establish the energy tariff, and notably a bonus-malus principle. The objective is to incite households to better insulate their main housing. It also takes social tariffs into account, defines institutions and representative for energy regulation, proposes the implementation of a public service for housing energy performance, and addresses the issue of energy supply in winter to households in precarious situation