WorldWideScience

Sample records for current economic climate

  1. Climate economics in progress 2011; Climate economics in progress 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Perthuis, Christian [Paris-Dauphine University (France); Jouvet, Pierre-Andre [Paris-Ouest University (France); Trotignon, Raphael; Simonet, Gabriela; Boutueil, Virginie [Climate Economics Chair, Paris-Dauphine University (France)

    2011-10-01

    Climate Economics in Progress offers a global overview of the present status of action on climate change. Drawing on the most recent data, it analyzes the development of carbon markets in Europe and other parts of the world. It also examines the conditions for including major players such as China and new sectors such as agriculture, forestry and transport in the fight against global warming. The book is essential reading for anyone wishing to understand current advances in climate control, which could pave the way for a new form of economic growth. The book brings together a group of researchers whose goal is to make the link between academic research on the economics of climate change and the implementation of operational tools, thereby allowing the climate issue to be integrated into the functioning of the real economy

  2. Climate economics in progress 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Perthuis, Christian; Jouvet, Pierre-Andre; Trotignon, Raphael; Simonet, Gabriela; Boutueil, Virginie

    2011-01-01

    Climate Economics in Progress offers a global overview of the present status of action on climate change. Drawing on the most recent data, it analyzes the development of carbon markets in Europe and other parts of the world. It also examines the conditions for including major players such as China and new sectors such as agriculture, forestry and transport in the fight against global warming. The book is essential reading for anyone wishing to understand current advances in climate control, which could pave the way for a new form of economic growth. The book brings together a group of researchers whose goal is to make the link between academic research on the economics of climate change and the implementation of operational tools, thereby allowing the climate issue to be integrated into the functioning of the real economy

  3. Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Amin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

  4. Out-patient management and non-attendance in the current economic climate. How best to manage our resources?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hennessy, D

    2010-03-01

    Outpatient non-attendance is a considerable source of inefficiency in the health service, wasting time, resources and potentially lengthening waiting lists, Given the current economic climate, methods need to be employed to reduce non-attendance. The aim was to analyse outpatient non-attendance and determine what factors influence attendance. A prospective audit over a two-month period to a tertiary-referral Urological service was performed to determine the clinical and demographic profile of non-attendees. Of 737 appointments, 148 (20%) patients did not attend (DNA). A benign urological condition was evident in 116 cases (78%). This group of patients also accounted for the majority of new patients not attending 40\\/47, returning patients not attending 101\\/148 and the majority of patients who missed multiple appointments 43\\/49. Patients with benign conditions make up the majority of clinic non-attendance. Consideration may be given to discharging such patients back to their general practitioner after one unexplained non-attendance until other alternatives of follow up are available.

  5. Social and economic impacts of climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

    2016-09-09

    For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  6. The economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, T.

    1992-01-01

    Perhaps the most startling aspect of the debate on climate change is the speed with which it has climbed the international political agenda. In 1985, climate change was viewed almost entirely as a scientific issue. Only seven years later, most industrialized countries have made some sort of political pledge to abate their emissions of greenhouse gases over a specific timetable. And earlier this year, 154 countries signed a Framework Convention on Climate Change at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro. What is the present 'state of play' in the economics of climate change. And what priorities are now emerging in 'post-Rio' policy. 11 ref

  7. The economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    An international Conference on the Economics of Climate Change was convened by the OECD and the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, in June 1993. Participants included many of the world's foremost experts in the field, as well as representatives from business, labour, and other non-governmental organisations. The Conference sought to examine points of consensus and divergence among existing studies on the economics of climate change. Participants also focused on how economic analysis could contribute to meeting the obligations of OECD countries under the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change. Discussions centered on such topics as the economic costs and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies, the potential role of carbon taxes and other economic instruments in the policy mix, possibilities for technological change and diffusion, especially in the energy sector, and joint abatement action between industrialized and developing countries. This volume contains the papers presented at the Conference, as well as summaries of the subsequent discussions. It provides an overview of the 'state of the art' in the economics of climate change and several suggestions for future research. (author)

  8. Model confirmation in climate economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  9. Climate Change Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Lukashin, C.; Thome, K. J.; Baize, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Higher than normal accuracy is required to rigorously observe decadal climate change. But what level is needed? How can this be quantified? This presentation will summarize a new more rigorous and quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations (Wielicki et al., 2013, BAMS). Most current global satellite observations cannot meet this accuracy level. A proposed new satellite mission to resolve this challenge is CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory). CLARREO is designed to achieve advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra (Wielicki et al., Oct. 2013 BAMS). The CLARREO spectrometers are designed to serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and to greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar passive satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, SPOT, etc). Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance as part of a rigorous and complete climate observing system. The study concludes that the economic value is $12 Trillion U.S. dollars in Net Present Value for a nominal discount rate of 3% (Cooke et al. 2013, J. Env. Sys. Dec.). A brief summary of these two studies and their implications for the future of climate science will be presented.

  10. Economic Consequences Of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szlávik, János; Füle, Miklós

    2009-07-01

    Even though the climate conflict resulting from green houses gases (GHG) emissions was evident by the Nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth. Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state-of-the-art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle, the emphasis is on prevention. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims.

  11. Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the value of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions matters for policy decisions and climate risk management, but quantification is challenging because of the complex interactions and uncertainties in the Earth and human systems, as well as normative ethical considerations. Current modelling approaches use damage functions to parameterize a simplified relationship between climate variables, such as temperature change, and economic losses. Here we review and synthesize the limitations of these damage functions and describe how incorporating impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research advances and empirical findings could substantially improve damage modelling and the robustness of social cost of carbon values produced. We discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these research advances into cost-benefit integrated assessment models, with guidance for future work.

  12. Discounting in economics and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1997-01-01

    This paper examines the complexity of the issues surrounding the discounting issue as applied to the economics of climatic change. It is assumed that living standards will continue to improve, and that future generations will be more able to resource environmental improvements than our own. Measures to counter climate change now may have a deleterious effect on economic growth. Approaches to this situation include: lowering the discount rate; differential discounting; climate targeting; and emissions or concentrations limitations. Policies that focus directly on reducing pollutants are likely to have fewer deleterious economic effects than those that manipulate the discount rate on goods. 3 refs., 2 figs

  13. Current practices in economic appraisal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mossink, J.C.M.

    2000-01-01

    By means of economic appraisal, the costs and the benefits of health, environment and safety management can be made clear, both at the national level and at the company level. As such it is a tool in advocating good practices. This paper explores the possibilities of economic appraisal for policy

  14. Economics, ethics and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1993-01-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (118 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.)

  15. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  16. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  17. Climate change loss and damage. Economic and legal foundations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinninti, Krishna Rao

    2014-01-01

    This text works to establish essential foundations and guidelines in the current process of providing strategies, mechanisms and resources for mitigating loss and damage from the adverse impacts of climate change and climate variability. This builds on the groundwork done by the UNFCCC and other entities to facilitate the processes at the international level, pursuing a pragmatic approach and the objective specification of relevant frameworks for further actions. The primary goal is the development of integrated approaches to the assessment and reduction of loss and damage due to climate change (including climate variability), encompassing both economic and legal dimensions.

  18. Climate change loss and damage. Economic and legal foundations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinninti, Krishna Rao

    2014-04-01

    This text works to establish essential foundations and guidelines in the current process of providing strategies, mechanisms and resources for mitigating loss and damage from the adverse impacts of climate change and climate variability. This builds on the groundwork done by the UNFCCC and other entities to facilitate the processes at the international level, pursuing a pragmatic approach and the objective specification of relevant frameworks for further actions. The primary goal is the development of integrated approaches to the assessment and reduction of loss and damage due to climate change (including climate variability), encompassing both economic and legal dimensions.

  19. On climate change and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fankhauser, Samuel; Tol, Richard S.J.

    2005-01-01

    The economic impact of climate change is usually measured as the extent to which the climate of a given period affects social welfare in that period. This static approach ignores the dynamic effects through which climate change may affect economic growth and hence future welfare. In this paper we take a closer look at these dynamic effects, in particular saving and capital accumulation. With a constant savings rate, a lower output due to climate change will lead to a proportionate reduction in investment which in turn will depress future production (capital accumulation effect) and, in almost all cases, future consumption per capita. If the savings rate is endogenous, forward looking agents would change their savings behavior to accommodate the impact of future climate change. This suppresses growth prospects in absolute and per capita terms (savings effect). In an endogenous growth context, these two effects may be exacerbated through changes in labour productivity and the rate of technical progress. Simulations using a simple climate-economy model suggest that the capital accumulation effect is important, especially if technological change is endogenous, and may be larger than the direct impact of climate change. The savings effect is less pronounced. The dynamic effects are more important, relative to the direct effects, if climate change impacts are moderate overall. This suggests that they are more of a concern in developed countries, which are believed to be less vulnerable to climate change. The magnitude of dynamic effects is not sensitive to the choice of discount rate

  20. Economic convergence and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciscar, J.C.; Soria, A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper addresses the relevance of the economic convergence hypotheses between the developing and the developed world in international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions negotiations. The results are based on a two-region (the OECD and the rest of the world, ROW) neo-classical growth model with exogenous technical progress, different technological diffusion patterns, and a set of geophysical relationships that consider an environmental externality linked to GHG emissions. A game framework is taken into account in the model to capture the strategic interactions between agents. The outcome of the negotiations seems indeed to depend on the economic convergence hypotheses. Faster economic growth of the ROW countries would encourage them to further mitigate carbon emissions. (Author)

  1. Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Nicholas

    2015-08-07

    The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. © 2015 The Author(s).

  2. The Economics and Ethics of Human Induced Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Spash, Clive L.; Gattringer, Clemens

    2016-01-01

    Human induced climate change poses a series of ethical challenges to the current political economy, although it has often be regarded by economists as only an ethical issue for those concerned about future generations. The central debate in economics has then concerned the rate at which future costs and benefits should be discounted. Indeed the full range of ethical aspects of climate change are rarely even discussed. Despite recent high profile and lengthy academic papers on t...

  3. Economic and policy issues in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1998-01-01

    Global climate change has emerged as one of today's most challenging and controversial policy issues. In this significant new contribution, a roster of premier scholars examines economic and social aspects of that far-reaching phenomenon. Although the 1997 summit in Kyoto focused world attention on climate, it was just one step in an ongoing process. Research by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been ongoing since 1988. An extensive IPCC Working Group report published in 1995 examined the economic and social aspects of climate change. In this new volume, eminent economists assess that IPCC report and address the questions that emerge. William Nordhaus's introduction establishes the context for this book. It provides basic scientific background, reviews the IPCC's activities, and explains the genesis of the project

  4. Economic Growth, Climate Change, and Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minos, Dimitrios; Butzlaff, Iris; Demmler, Kathrin Maria; Rischke, Ramona

    2016-12-01

    Human and planetary health as well as economic growth are firmly interlinked and subject to complex interaction effects. In this paper, we provide an overview of interlinkages between economic growth, climate change, and obesity focusing on recent advances in the literature. In addition to empirical findings, we discuss different theoretical frameworks used to conceptualize these complex links and highlight policy options and challenges. We conclude that policies addressing both climate change and obesity simultaneously are particularly promising and often suitable for ensuring sustainable development.

  5. Rethinking the economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damian, Michel

    2012-05-01

    The paper makes a case for rethinking the economics of climate change. It questions the way the problem was conventionally framed and solved through top-down international cooperation and carbon emission permits, taxes and pricing. The paper argues that the on-going industrial and energy transition reflects a paradigmatic shift as compared to neoclassical environmental economics that has framed climate policy since the Rio conference in 1992. On a normative basis, the paper maintains that a carbon tax should not follow a Pigovian rationale. To be feasible such a tax should be of a Marshallian nature, i.e. earmarked, and rather modest at the beginning. (author)

  6. Economics of Climate Change Adaptation | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Literature on the economics of climate change adaptation - especially in developing countries - is generally scarce, and this weakens the premise on which adaptation decisions are made. Moreover, there is no standard framework or toolkit to guide researchers and policymakers in this kind of decision-making. This grant ...

  7. Economics of adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perthuis, Ch.; Hallegatte, St.; Lecocq, F.

    2010-02-01

    This report proposes a general economic framework for the issue of adaptation to climate change in order to help public and private actors to build up efficient adaptation strategies. It proposes a general definition of adaptation, identifies the major stakes for these strategies, and discusses the assessment of global costs of adaptation to climate change. It discusses the role and modalities of public action and gives some examples of possible adaptation measures in some important sectors (building and town planning, energy and transport infrastructures, water and agriculture, ecosystems, insurance). It examines the regional and national dimensions of adaptation and their relationship, and defines steps for implementing an adaptation strategy. It describes and discusses the use of economic tools in the elaboration of an adaptation strategy, i.e. how to take uncertainties into account, which scenarios to choose, how to use economic calculations to assess adaptation policies

  8. The Economic Value of Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

    2012-12-01

    While demonstrating the economic value of science is challenging, it can be more direct for some Earth observations. For example, suppose a climate science mission can yield decisive information on climate change within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) provides a standard for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, stipulating uncertainty in climate sensitivity, using discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate response (DICE Optimal), and a strong response (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we would switch from BAU to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain also depends on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The resolving power of a climate observing system cannot exceed climate system natural variability. All climate observations add noise to natural variability caused by observing limitations, including calibration errors and space/time sampling uncertainty. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can advance the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems

  9. Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply ... In a context of positive economic growth, demand for water is expected to ... Socially equitable climate action is essential to strengthen the resilience of all ...

  10. Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, Nadine; Bond, Tami C; Wang, James S; Koch, Dorothy M; Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T; Bauer, Susanne

    2010-02-23

    A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

  11. Economic development, climate and values: making policy

    OpenAIRE

    Stern, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The ...

  12. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available

  13. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  14. Current Economic Situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Mirascic

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This article provides an overview of the current economic situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Beginning in the second half of 2008, macroeconomic conditions in B&H began precipitating a decline in economic activity. While the global financial crisis was among the factors contributing to this decline, it was far from the only factor. Problematic macroeconomic conditions were also a result of B&H’s own structural and political problems, caused largely by the shortcomings of a political entity comprising two autonomous entities. Due to such problems, the governments of B&H turned to the International Monetary Fund for assistance. This article analyzes the effects of the first two “stand by” arrangements made between the IMF and B&H and discusses implications for further, ongoing stand by arrangements made between the IMF and B&H. This paper also examines the lack of unified economic space between The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and The Republic of Srpska, which has resulted not only in ineffective monetary policy but also in different fiscal and taxation systems between the two entities. While various existing analyses claim that B&H has little hope of resolving its economic woes due to its current political and economic structure, this article offers solutions and measures that, if successfully implemented, would lead to more efficient recovery and self-sustainable economic growth.

  15. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

  16. Economic and ethical arguments inglobal climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaergaard, Niels

    1998-01-01

    The debate about the reduction of CO 2 -emissions, as seen for example at the UN climate conference in Kyoto, includes a mixture of economic and ethical arguments. Joint implementation using the market mechanisms is viewed as being unethical because the rich countries are able to pay others to carry out their redutions. This debate is seen as a continuation of a very old discussion about the ethics of the market. The Nordic electricity market is used as an example to demonstrate that the use of tradeable permissions has well defined positive consequences. (au) 26 refs

  17. Costs of climate change: Economic value of Yakima River salmon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, D.M.; Shankle, S.A.; Scott, M.J.; Neitzel, D.A.; Chatters, J.C.

    1992-07-01

    This work resulted from a continuing multidisciplinary analysis of species preservation and global change. The paper explores the economic cost of a potential regional warming as it affects one Pacific Northwest natural resource, the spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshcawytscha). Climate change and planned habitat improvements impact the production and economic value of soling chinook salmon of the Yakima River tributary of the Columbia River in eastern Washington. The paper presents a derivation of the total economic value of a chinook salmon, which includes the summation of the existence, commercial, recreational, and capital values of the fish. When currently available commercial, recreational, existence, and capital values for chinook salmon were applied to estimated population changes, the estimated change in the economic value per fish associated with reduction of one fish run proved significant

  18. Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, Bruce; Cooke, Roger; Golub, Alexander; Baize, Rosemary; Mlynczak, Martin; Lukashin, Constantin; Thome, Kurt; Shea, Yolanda; Kopp, Greg; Pilewskie, Peter; hide

    2016-01-01

    This presentation will summarize a new quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations. Using this metric, most current global satellite observations struggle to meet this accuracy level. CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is a new satellite mission designed to resolve this challenge is by achieving advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra. The CLARREO spectrometers can serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, etc). A CLARREO Pathfinder mission for flight on the International Space Station is included in the U.S. Presidentâ€"TM"s fiscal year 2016 budget, with launch in 2019 or 2020. Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A new study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance and concludes that the economic value is $9 Trillion U.S. dollars. The new value includes the cost of carbon emissions reductions.

  19. The economics of climate change and the change of climate in economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marechal, Kevin

    2007-01-01

    Economics is an unavoidable decision-making tool in the field of climate policy. At the same time, traditional economics is being challenged both empirically and theoretically by scholars in different fields. Its non-neutrality in dealing with climate-related issues-which is illustrated by the controversy over the 'no-regret potential'-would thus call for an opening of economics to insights from other disciplines. Within that context, we show that an evolutionary-inspired line of thought coupled with a systemic and historical perspective of technological change provides a very insightful alternative to traditional economics. More particularly, it follows from that framework that the picture of the climate challenge ahead looks very different from what traditional economic analyses would suggest. For instance, the lock-in process makes it unlikely that traditional cost-efficient measures (such as carbon taxation or tradable emission rights) will be sufficient to bring about the required radical changes in the field of energy as they fail to address structural barriers highlighted in our approach

  20. Economic theory and climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, I.; Ackerman, F.

    1999-01-01

    Our willingness to embrace climate change policies depends on our perception of their benefits and costs. Evaluation of these costs and benefits requires careful economic analysis. Yet the standard tools for such assessment - computable general equilibrium (CGE) models - are inadequate on several grounds. Their underlying theory suffers from well-known logical difficulties; in general, their equilibria may be neither unique, stable, nor efficient. Moreover, real-world phenomena such as increasing returns to scale, learning, and technological innovation are neglected in CGE models. These phenomena make the resulting equilibria in the models inefficient; in the real world they can lock society into sub-optimal technology choices. They introduce uncertainty and path-dependence, annihilating the concept of a single efficient allocation produced by the unfettered market. Yet conventional economics assesses the cost of policies solely on the basis of their departure from a purportedly efficient equilibrium - ignoring deeper structural changes that are often decisive in practice. New socioeconomic theories and models are emerging that allow for bounded rationality, the limiting and enabling character of institutions, technological change, and the complexities and uncertainties in economic evolution. Meanwhile, existing models should be modified to better reflect real-world phenomena and to abandon unfounded assumptions about the inherent ''inefficiencies'' of government intervention in the market. (author)

  1. Adaptive institutions? Peasant institutions and natural models facing climatic and economic changes in the Colombian Andes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feola, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    In the Colombian Andes, peasants have co-evolved with their environment for centuries, but it is uncertain whether traditional informal institutions and natural models are adapting to current and possibly unprecedented economic and climatic disturbances. This study investigated institutional

  2. Economic instruments in the service of climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buba, Johanne; Ben-Jelloul, Mahdi; Schaff, Clement

    2011-11-01

    Within the perspective of new international agreements after those signed in Kyoto (1997), in Cancun (2010) and in Durban (2011), this document recalls the frameworks defined during these summits, outline the challenges regarding climate change and makes five propositions. The first one is to prepare the conditions for and experimentation of a CO 2 emission trading scheme between the European market and the one of other countries. The second one is to re-establish competitive neutrality in the most emitting industrial sectors which are the most exposed to international competition and more easily subjected to off-shoring practices. The third one is the possibility for a country to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions while financing reductions in other countries. The fourth one is to harmonise emission measurement and accounting standards. The last one is to create a European institute for research and education on economic mechanisms of struggle against global warming

  3. Economics and politics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahn, R.W.

    1998-01-01

    A fundamental issue is what steps, if any, nations should take to control greenhouse gas emissions. Robert Hahn argues that over the next decade the best strategy for policy makers is to build institutions that can address climate change in the future by developing a capacity at the nation-state level to measure greenhouse gas emissions and to implement and enforce cost-effective ways of limiting emissions. Policy makers must also improve the capacity of an international body to assess greenhouse gas inventories and review national policies. Hahn recommends that the developed nations craft an agreement for the next decade that provides a slight emission limitation and allows for a series of case studies, in which developing nations would participate, to preserve diversity and build useful institutional knowledge. The Economics and Politics of Climate Change is one in a series of new AEI studies related to the globalization of environmental policy. These studies will focus on specific issues and on the new institutional arrangements required to deal with them. A list of publications in this series appears inside

  4. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  5. Current economic trends in equine practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Andrew R

    2009-12-01

    Current economic trends in equine practice are trends of weakness. Most practices, after a decade of double-digit growth, have migrated to survival mode within a few months. Understanding that all regions and disciplines are affected differently, using the Porter five forces model, we can identify changes that must be made in our business models first to survive and then to position ourselves to prosper when the recession ends. If we are to avoid long-term damage to our practices, we must use cost control and work efficiency in addition to price concessions.

  6. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  7. Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blenckner, Thorsten; Llope, Marcos; Möllmann, Christian; Voss, Rudi; Quaas, Martin F.; Casini, Michele; Lindegren, Martin; Folke, Carl; Chr. Stenseth, Nils

    2015-01-01

    Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change. PMID:25694626

  8. Approaches to Economic Empowerment of Rural Women for Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There are several ways of promoting women's economic participation while also counteracting climate change. One approach in the field of climate mitigation is the promotion of renewable energies that help avoid greenhouse gas emissions. The potential of rural women as agents of change for climate mitigation and ...

  9. Understanding the economic benefits of climate change commitments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinge, A.W.; Bourgeois, T.G.

    1998-01-01

    Much has been written about the likely economic costs of US commitment to a global climate change treaty, whereby signatory countries would be expected to stabilize or reduce carbon emissions. A great deal of rhetoric has surrounded the potential costs of such action, with some estimates stating that committing to such a treaty would result in 1.2 to 1.8 million job losses by the year 2010. On the other side of the discussion, the Energy Innovations report prepared by ACEEE and others showed that emissions could be cut by 10% by 2010, at the same time that the economy would grow modestly by $2.8 billion over a base case, including a net gain of 800,000 additional jobs. One area that has not been adequately addressed in the debate is quantifying the current level of activity of the positively affected industries from such a climate treaty, including the energy efficiency and renewable energy industries and other environmental businesses. This paper presents information on the current and prospective contribution of the energy efficiency industries to US economic output, exports and job creation. This will better define what the possible benefits to the US economy might be of potential global climate change policies. The magnitude of the beneficial economic impact will in part be determined by the extent to which energy efficiency products, and the components which comprise them, are manufactured in the US. An important issue to be addressed is the existence, scale, and the competitive position of these energy efficiency industries in the US

  10. The Arctic: between climatic change, economic development and security issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degeorges, Damien

    2016-01-01

    The Arctic is a perfect illustration of how climate change is impacting international relations, in particular because it triggers new economic and safety issues. Since every major economic power has interests in the region, it has now become the stage of many rivalries, including between China and the United-States. Whether it is because its extreme climate conditions or the growing international pressure, the Arctic sets a new challenge for investors: securing a sustainable economic growth in the region

  11. Economic and labour market implications of climate change on the tourism sector of the Maltese Islands

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Andrew;

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews threats to, and consequences of, current climate and environmental change on tourism destinations. The paper reviews recent published research on the impacts of climate and environmental change and consequences of such on the physical social and economic character of tourism operations using the Maltese Islands as a case. The validity and practicality of management options to tackle the complex nature and juxtaposition between tourism growth, climate...

  12. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  13. THE EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION DURING THE CURRENT GLOBAL CRISIS

    OpenAIRE

    Sabina Tuca

    2013-01-01

    The current economic crisis constitutes a serious test for the process of globalization. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of the current global crisis on economic globalization. To assess the impact of the current crisis on economic globalization, this paper examines the KOF Index of Globalization, before and during the crisis. The findings generally support the idea that economic globalization has been, in fact, weakened, after the onset of the current crisis. However, t...

  14. The economics of climate change in agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zilberman, D.; Liu, Xuemei; Roland-Holst, D.; Sunding, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It assumes that climate change will result in a fertilization effect and a shift of agro-ecological conditions away from the Equator towards the Poles. The agro-ecological shift is likely to reduce yield because of reduced acreage and the fertilization effect will increase yield. The aggregate effect depends on whichever of the two dominates. The overall effect of climate change may be less significant than its distributional effects and the results are consistent with previous empirical studies. The impact of climate change depends on its pace. Faster changes in climate will result in higher cost. The assessment of the cost has to consider that climate change is a dynamic phenomenon that may require continuous adjustment. Environmental regulation that emphasizes conservation may increase cost of adjustment and environmental policies should emphasize adaptation and flexibility

  15. Economic/climate recovery scorecards. How climate friendly are the economic recovery packages?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoehne, N.; Eisbrenner, K.; Phylipsen, D.; Burck, J.; Van der Straeten, L.

    2009-04-01

    As global leaders head to the G20 summit to consider solutions to the current global economic crisis, a new report prepared by Ecofys and Germanwatch for WWF and E3G reveals that many of the economic recovery packages being discussed are a missed opportunity in terms of stimulating a green recovery, and actually run the risk of locking the world into a high-carbon future. The report provides the most detailed and comprehensive analysis to date of the proposed 'stimulus' packages of five key countries - France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US - as well as the package agreed by the European Union as a whole.

  16. The new socio-economic scenarios for climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

    2013-01-01

    The scientific community is developing a new generation of scenarios to inform the choices we have to make when it comes to responding to climate change. This new generation of scenarios integrates more fully the mechanisms that regulate climate and provides insights to spatial and temporal resolutions unexplored in previous exercises. In addition, it gives a framework for integrating explicit climate policies for mitigation and adaptation, which allows assessing the benefits and costs of climate policies in different socio-economic scenarios. Finally, it introduces a new way of working that strengthens the collaboration between different research communities on climate change. (authors)

  17. Climate change, mobility, and women's economic empowerment in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-05-14

    May 14, 2018 ... Climate change, mobility, and women's economic empowerment in Pakistan ... engage in paid work, go to school, and stay safe and healthy in their daily ... initiative with the UK's Department for International Development, The ...

  18. A CBO Study: The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2003-01-01

    This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study-prepared at the request of the Ranking Member of the House Committee on Science-presents an overview of issues related to climate change, focusing primarily on its economic aspects...

  19. The carbon rent economics of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalkuhl, Matthias; Brecha, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    By reducing the demand for fossil fuels, climate policy can reduce scarcity rents for fossil resource owners. As mitigation policies ultimately aim to limit emissions, a new scarcity for “space” in the atmosphere to deposit emissions is created. The associated scarcity rent, or climate rent (that is, for example, directly visible in permit prices under an emission trading scheme) can be higher or lower than the original fossil resource rent. In this paper, we analyze analytically and numerically the impact of mitigation targets, resource availability, backstop costs, discount rates and demand parameters on fossil resource rents and the climate rent. We assess whether and how owners of oil, gas and coal can be compensated by a carbon permit grandfathering rule. One important finding is that reducing (cumulative) fossil resource use could actually increase scarcity rents and benefit fossil resource owners under a permit grandfathering rule. For our standard parameter setting overall scarcity rents under climate policy increase slightly. While low discount rates of resource owners imply higher rent losses due to climate policies, new developments of reserves or energy efficiency improvements could more than double scarcity rents under climate policy. Another important implication is that agents receiving the climate rent (regulating institutions or owners of grandfathered permits) could influence the climate target such that rents are maximized, rather than to limit global warming to a socially desirable level. For our basic parameter setting, rents would be maximized at approximately 650 GtC emissions (50% of business-as-usual emissions) implying a virtual certainty of exceeding a 2 °C target and a likelihood of 4 °C warming. - Highlights: • Fossil resource rents form a substantial share of the global GDP. • Fossil resource owners can benefit from climate policy. • Climate targets might be influenced by rent-maximizing aspects

  20. The economics of climate change - the Stern review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stern, N. Sir

    2007-01-15

    This review was announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in July 2005. It was undertaken by Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the Government Economic Service and Adviser to the Government on the economics of climatic change and development. Having analysed a wide range of evidence on the impact of climate change, the aim of the review was to assess the economics of a low-carbon global economy; the long-term perspective; timescale for action; the choice of policies and institutions and specific lessons for the UK, in the context of its existing climate change goals. Using the results from formal economic models, the review estimates that if we don't act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more. The first half of the review considers how the evidence on the economic impact of climate, costs and benefits of action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions relates to the conceptual framework described. It covers climate change, including chapters on the science of climate change economics, ethics and discusses how climate change affects people worldwide, the implication of climate change for development, the costs of climate change in developed countries and economic modelling of climate change impacts. Other areas covered in this review include projecting the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, the cost of mitigation and macroeconomic modelling of costs. Adaptation to climate change is of the utmost importance, and whilst it is no longer possible to prevent the climate change that will take place over the next two to three decades it is still possible to protect our societies and economies from its impacts in the future. Promoting international cooperation, the role of adaptation in sustainable development and creating a global price for carbon are also discussed in this review. An

  1. Regional Wave Climates along Eastern Boundary Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semedo, Alvaro; Soares, Pedro

    2016-04-01

    Two types of wind-generated gravity waves coexist at the ocean surface: wind sea and swell. Wind sea waves are waves under growing process. These young growing waves receive energy from the overlaying wind and are strongly coupled to the local wind field. Waves that propagate away from their generation area and no longer receive energy input from the local wind are called swell. Swell waves can travel long distances across entire ocean basins. A qualitative study of the ocean waves from a locally vs. remotely generation perspective is important, since the air sea interaction processes is strongly modulated by waves and vary accordingly to the prevalence of wind sea or swell waves in the area. A detailed climatology of wind sea and swell waves along eastern boundary currents (EBC; California Current, Canary Current, in the Northern Hemisphere, and Humboldt Current, Benguela Current, and Western Australia Current, in the Southern Hemisphere), based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis will be presented. The wind regime along EBC varies significantly from winter to summer. The high summer wind speeds along EBC generate higher locally generated wind sea waves, whereas lower winter wind speeds in these areas, along with stronger winter extratropical storms far away, lead to a predominance of swell waves there. In summer, the coast parallel winds also interact with coastal headlands, increasing the wind speed through a process called "expansion fan", which leads to an increase in the height of locally generated waves downwind of capes and points. Hence the spatial patterns of the wind sea or swell regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean along EBC, due to coastal geometry and fetch dimensions. Swell waves will be shown to be considerably more prevalent and to carry more energy in winter along EBC, while in summer locally generated wind sea waves are either more comparable to swell waves or

  2. Economics and management of climate change: risks, mitigation and adaptation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Antes, Ralf

    2008-01-01

    ... climate change poses risks to societies and companies, nor about adequate strategies to cope with these risks. Bringing together scholars from environmental economics, political science, and business management, this book describes, analyses and evaluates climate change risks and responses of societies and companies. The book c...

  3. USA between the Greatest Economic Crisis and Current Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina Liana Camarda

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available American business system might be defined trough its decentralized character, a capitalist one, based on private property and free will. Federalauthorities’ intercession to economy exhibits throughout budgetary and monetary policies strategy. Meantime federal budget gets a constituent referring toinvestment in cereals. American economic legislation acknowledges government involvement in business practice control, American Government acting aseconomical increase supervisor.

  4. Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blenckner, Thorsten; Llope, Marcos; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree...... lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change....

  5. EU-wide economic valuation of adaptation to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeuken, Ad; Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    and benefits are explored for present and future climates, for different socio-economic developments paths and different adaptation strategies. For all models the SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 2 (‘middle of the road’), 3 (‘fragmented world’) and 5 (‘market driven development’) have been explored as well...

  6. Consistent economic cross-sectoral climate change impact scenario analysis: Method and application to Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl W. Steininger

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change triggers manifold impacts at the national to local level, which in turn have various economy-wide implications (e.g. on welfare, employment, or tax revenues. In its response, society needs to prioritize which of these impacts to address and what share of resources to spend on each respective adaptation. A prerequisite to achieving that end is an economic impact analysis that is consistent across sectors and acknowledges intersectoral and economy-wide feedback effects. Traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs are usually operating at a level too aggregated for this end, while bottom-up impact models most often are not fully comprehensive, focusing on only a subset of climate sensitive sectors and/or a subset of climate change impact chains. Thus, we develop here an approach which applies climate and socioeconomic scenario analysis, harmonized economic costing, and sector explicit bandwidth analysis in a coupled framework of eleven (biophysical impact assessment models and a uniform multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model. In applying this approach to the alpine country of Austria, we find that macroeconomic feedbacks can magnify sectoral climate damages up to fourfold, or that by mid-century costs of climate change clearly outweigh benefits, with net costs rising two- to fourfold above current damage cost levels. The resulting specific impact information – differentiated by climate and economic drivers – can support sector-specific adaptation as well as adaptive capacity building. Keywords: climate impact, local impact, economic evaluation, adaptation

  7. Linking Physical Climate Research and Economic Assessments of Mitigation Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stainforth, David; Calel, Raphael

    2017-04-01

    Evaluating climate change policies requires economic assessments which balance the costs and benefits of climate action. A certain class of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) are widely used for this type of analysis; DICE, PAGE and FUND are three of the most influential. In the economics community there has been much discussion and debate about the economic assumptions implemented within these models. Two aspects in particular have gained much attention: i) the costs of damages resulting from climate change - the so-called damage function, and ii) the choice of discount rate applied to future costs and benefits. There has, however, been rather little attention given to the consequences of the choices made in the physical climate models within these IAMS. Here we discuss the practical aspects of the implementation of the physical models in these IAMS, as well as the implications of choices made in these physical science components for economic assessments[1]. We present a simple breakdown of how these IAMS differently represent the climate system as a consequence of differing underlying physical models, different parametric assumptions (for parameters representing, for instance, feedbacks and ocean heat uptake) and different numerical approaches to solving the models. We present the physical and economic consequences of these differences and reflect on how we might better incorporate the latest physical science understanding in economic models of this type. [1] Calel, R. and Stainforth D.A., "On the Physics of Three Integrated Assessment Models", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press.

  8. Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

    2014-05-01

    Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable

  9. Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Magnus, J.R.; Sakamoto, H.

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the interplay between climate, health, and the economy in a stylized world with four heterogeneous regions, labeled ‘West’ (cold and rich), ‘China’ (cold and poor), ‘India’ (warm and poor), and ‘Africa’ (warm and very poor). We introduce health impacts into a simple integrated

  10. The Economic Costs of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James

    2015-01-01

    by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are net benefits from selected pre-emptive actions...

  11. Modelling the economic impacts of addressing climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This Power Point report presents highlights of the latest economic modelling of Canada's Kyoto commitment to address climate change. It presents framework assumptions and a snapshot under 4 scenarios. The objective of this report is to evaluate the national, sectoral, provincial and territorial impacts of the federal reference case policy package in which the emissions reduction target is 170 Mt from a business-as-usual scenario. The reference case policy package also includes 30 Mt of sinks from current packages of which 20 Mt are derived from the forestry sector and the remainder from agricultural sector. The report examined 4 scenarios based on 2 international carbon prices ($10 and $50) per tonne of carbon dioxide in 2010. The scenarios were also based on the fiscal assumptions that climate change initiatives and revenue losses would directly affect the governments' balances, or that the government balances are maintained by increasing personal income tax. A comparison of impacts under each of the 4 scenarios to 2010 was presented. The model presents impacts on GDP, employment, disposable income per household, and energy prices. 4 tabs., 4 figs

  12. Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambarelli, G.; Goria, A.

    2004-07-01

    The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a conceptual and theoretical framework of the economic assessment of climate change impacts is presented and the state of the art about impact assessment studies is briefly analysed. Then, the Italian case is taken into account, by underlying the main impacts and adaptation challenges that are likely to be implied by climate change in the next decades. The analysis of the Italian case is particularly addressed through the description of the methodology and results of two case studies. The first one, dealing mainly with impact assessment, is carried out at the national level and is part of a EC funded project on Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). The second one is carried out at the local level and focuses on sea level rise impacts and adaptation in a plane south of Rome. The two case studies allow to propose simple and flexible methodologies for the economic impact assessment and the economic valuation of adaptation strategies

  13. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  14. Climate, economic, and environmental impacts of producing wood for bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsey, Richard; Duffy, Philip; Smyth, Carolyn; Kurz, Werner A.; Dugan, Alexa J.; Houghton, Richard

    2018-05-01

    Increasing combustion of woody biomass for electricity has raised concerns and produced conflicting statements about impacts on atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, climate, and other forest values such as timber supply and biodiversity. The purposes of this concise review of current literature are to (1) examine impacts on net GHG emissions and climate from increasing bioenergy production from forests and exporting wood pellets to Europe from North America, (2) develop a set of science-based recommendations about the circumstances that would result in GHG reductions or increases in the atmosphere, and (3) identify economic and environmental impacts of increasing bioenergy use of forests. We find that increasing bioenergy production and pellet exports often increase net emissions of GHGs for decades or longer, depending on source of feedstock and its alternate fate, time horizon of analysis, energy emissions associated with the supply chain and fuel substitution, and impacts on carbon cycling of forest ecosystems. Alternative uses of roundwood often offer larger reductions in GHGs, in particular long-lived wood products that store carbon for longer periods of time and can achieve greater substitution benefits than bioenergy. Other effects of using wood for bioenergy may be considerable including induced land-use change, changes in supplies of wood and other materials for construction, albedo and non-radiative effects of land-cover change on climate, and long-term impacts on soil productivity. Changes in biodiversity and other ecosystem attributes may be strongly affected by increasing biofuel production, depending on source of material and the projected scale of biofuel production increases.

  15. Energy and economic savings using geothermal heat pumps in different climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrone, Biagio; Coppola, Gaetano; Raucci, Vincenzo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Numerical study on 20 years Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) operation is achieved. • Increase in ground temperature due to GSHP can occur during 20 years operation. • Economical and GHG savings using GSHP show divergent trends for different climates. - Abstract: A technical and economic feasibility study is performed on residential buildings, heated and cooled by geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) equipped with energy piles. The analysis is carried out for two different climate locations and building energy needs, which have been evaluated following the current European standard ISO 13790. The energy pile system performance coupled with the GHP has been numerically calculated by using the PILESIM2 software over 20 years of operation. The Primary Energy Saving (PES) indices were calculated comparing the actual GHPs systems with traditional cooling and heating systems, together with their sensitivity to thermal and cooling loads for two different climate locations. Also, economic savings and greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction have been calculated resulting from the GHPs use. The results show that in mild climates, where the GHPs are mainly used as HP, the annual average temperature of the ground around the energy piles can increase up to about 10 °C after many years of operation, whereas in cold climates the increase is nearly negligible. Thus, the economical profit of GHPs is more difficult to achieve in mild climates than in cold ones. Conversely, GHG emission reduction is found to be larger in mild climates than in cold ones

  16. Behavioral Economics and Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Gowdy

    2007-01-01

    The policy recommendations of most economists are based on the rational actor model of human behavior. Behavior is assumed to be self-regarding, preferences are assumed to be stable, and decisions are assumed to be unaffected by social context or frame of reference. The related fields of behavioral economics, game theory, and neuroscience have confirmed that human behavior is other regarding, and that people exhibit systematic patterns of decision-making that are "irrational" according to the...

  17. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  18. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases, the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time-span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

  19. Future perspectives for climate action. How economics can prescribe more than an energy charge. An essay on how economics can contribute to resolving the climate problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Bruyn, S.

    2013-07-15

    How can economics contribute to designing a 'solution' for the emerging climate crisis? This essay attempts to answer that question by investigating the roots of economic thinking and analyzing the coordination issues that are at the heart of the climate problem. While economics has been a protagonist in climate change debates by providing economic instruments such as tradeable emission permits, it has also been an antagonist by calling into doubt the need for mitigation, the benefits of which were held not to outweigh the costs. This essay argues that climate change is primarily a social equity issue and that economics is a poor science for analyzing such issues. Discussion models in economics and climate change science are fundamentally different, moreover, which means the two disciplines are prone to mutual misunderstanding. Nonetheless, to resolve the climate problem, climate science could well benefit from economic thinking, and especially from theoretical ideas from institutional economics concerning the design of effective policy instruments.

  20. Future perspectives for climate action. How economics can prescribe more than an energy charge. An essay on how economics can contribute to resolving the climate problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Bruyn, S.

    2013-07-15

    How can economics contribute to designing a 'solution' for the emerging climate crisis? This essay attempts to answer that question by investigating the roots of economic thinking and analyzing the coordination issues that are at the heart of the climate problem. While economics has been a protagonist in climate change debates by providing economic instruments such as tradeable emission permits, it has also been an antagonist by calling into doubt the need for mitigation, the benefits of which were held not to outweigh the costs. This essay argues that climate change is primarily a social equity issue and that economics is a poor science for analyzing such issues. Discussion models in economics and climate change science are fundamentally different, moreover, which means the two disciplines are prone to mutual misunderstanding. Nonetheless, to resolve the climate problem, climate science could well benefit from economic thinking, and especially from theoretical ideas from institutional economics concerning the design of effective policy instruments.

  1. Economic Development, Inequality and Climate Change in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Dang, Vinh; Do, Trang; Nguyen, Cuong; Phung, Thu; Phung, Tung

    2013-01-01

    From 2011 till 2013, Vietnam has been experiencing an economic slowdown and macroeconomic problems such as high inflation, bad debt from commercial banks and the inefficient operation of state-owned companies. The poverty reduction rate has slowed down and poverty incidence in remote and mountainous areas remains high. Inequality in income and socio-economic development between different geographic and ethnic groups is still significant. Climate changes such as escalating frequency of extreme...

  2. The economics of optimal adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Ringius, L.

    2002-07-01

    This paper has set out to provide a consistent theoretical framework for understanding how consumers, producers and factor agents respond to the impacts of climate change, with a primary focus on the production and consumption of, and investment in, market goods and services under competitive conditions. However, we have also pointed out that this theory can be extended to economies where individuals and groups pursue other well-defined objectives, and we have provided some examples that show the consistency in adaptation behaviour between economic terms and those who maximise the objective of household nutrition. We have defined adaptation as the changes that economic agents make in the allocation of resources to consumption, production and investment to offset the effects of weather variability or climate change on their welfare. This definition is broad enough to encompass almost every conceivable kind of adaptation behaviour. Further, we have followed the distinction between adaptation that is autonomous and adaptation actions that are undertaken by governments in the form of adaptation strategies. Autonomous adaptation is adaptation that economic agents will undertake to change, without the assistance of government, to improve their welfare due to incentives that are built into the political economy of a country. Adaptation strategies involve conscious decisions by governments to undertake actions and implement projects to avoid (or benefit from) weather variability and climate change. We show how the extent to which economic activities are adapted to existing climate variability will affect how much autonomous adaptation will need to occur once the pure effect of climate change is taken into account. In this paper we argue that the ability of economic activities to adapt once the pure effect of climate change can be accounted for by the following factors: Presence of well-developed markets for inputs and outputs; Ability and competitiveness to produce

  3. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Iglesias, Ana; Feyen, Luc; Szabó, László; Van Regemorter, Denise; Amelung, Bas; Nicholls, Robert; Watkiss, Paul; Christensen, Ole B; Dankers, Rutger; Garrote, Luis; Goodess, Clare M; Hunt, Alistair; Moreno, Alvaro; Richards, Julie; Soria, Antonio

    2011-02-15

    Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2-1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

  4. Climate and current anthropogenic impacts on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2013-01-01

    . As with terrestrial systems, it will not be easy to find acceptable balances between food production and conservation objectives. Climate change imposes a new set of pressures on marine ecosystems; increasing temperature, reduced salinity in some enclosed seas and coastal areas, changing windfields and seasonality...... of research that will help us to adapt and on the development of practices and management that will insure against future change...

  5. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  6. The current macroeconomic climate in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjerding, Allan Næs

    2005-01-01

    The Danish economy has recovered remarkably during the last 15 years ? remarkably because the recovery does not really fit what would normally be expected from economic theory. An important explanation is the fact that the Danish economy is linked to a relatively small number of internationally h...

  7. Climate economics: post-Kyoto tracks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godard, Olivier; Ponssard, Jean-Pierre

    2011-01-01

    Commitments obtained by the Kyoto protocol will end in 2012. An impressive series of conferences - Bali (2007), Copenhagen (2009), Cancun (2010) to mention the main ones - were organised to prepare the post-2012 regime. Everything was supposed to be decided at the Copenhagen meeting but the state representatives came up against the obstacle. The pre-Copenhagen hope has given place to disillusion and has led to a turn-off towards a weekly coordinated regime which requires a strategic revision of approaches. This book presents the lessons learnt from the relative failure of these negotiations and proposes new paths for the future. It puts forward some strategic stakes that have to be taken into account for the future: the equity between very heterogeneous countries and populations, the industrial competitiveness, the carbon leaks and the violation of the most ambitious climate policies due to the heterogeneity of commitment levels, and the geopolitical reality. The world will have to live for a long time with heterogeneous carbon prices, themselves reflecting heterogeneous commitment levels. New modalities have to be defined which would manage to combine justice and efficiency. Two complementary paths are developed in this book: the establishing of adjustment mechanisms at borders and of international sectoral agreements. (J.S.)

  8. Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Darwin C.; Behl, Richard J.

    2006-01-01

    Scientific understanding of climate change and climate instability has undergone a revolution in the past decade with the discovery of numerous past climate transitions so rapid, and so unlike the expectation of smooth climate changes, that they would have previously been unbelievable to the scientific community. Models commonly used by economists to assess the wisdom of adapting to human-induced climate change, rather than averting it, lack the ability to incorporate this new scientific knowledge. Here, we identify and explain the nature of recent scientific advances, and describe the key ways in which failure to reflect new knowledge in economic analysis skews the results of that analysis. This includes the understanding that economic optimization models reliant on convexity are inherently unable to determine an 'optimal' policy solution. It is incumbent on economists to understand and to incorporate the new science in their models, and on climatologists and other scientists to understand the basis of economic models so that they can assist in this essential effort. (author)

  9. Economic impacts of climate change in the U.S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumann, J.

    1997-01-01

    Results of a long-term research project funded by EPRI to study the economic impacts of climate change in the U.S. were described. In 1992, Industrial Economics Inc., began an assessment of the impact of climate change in key natural resource sectors. A wide range of uniform climate scenarios were used to assess sensitivity across different temperature and precipitation gradients. Estimates were developed for the 2060 economy, using dynamic models to understand what was happening along the transient. It was projected that the greatest impact of climate change would be on the agricultural sector because of projected gains in productivity, mainly due to increased precipitation. Similar scenarios were developed for the economic impact of climate change on timber and coastal structures, including the loss of value of coastal property. Key limitations of the study, and future directions in research (e.g. extending the study to health and non-market impacts, including other developed and developing countries) were also outlined

  10. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ciscar, J.C.; Iglesias, A.; Feyen, L.; Szabo, L.; Regemorter, van D.; Amelung, B.; Nicholls, R.; Watkiss, P.; Christensen, O.B.; Dankers, R.; Garrote, L.; Goodess, C.M.; Hunt, A.; Moreno, A.; Richards, J.; Soria, A.

    2011-01-01

    Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to

  11. Optimal climate change: economics and climate science policy histories (from heuristic to normative).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randalls, Samuel

    2011-01-01

    Historical accounts of climate change science and policy have reflected rather infrequently upon the debates, discussions, and policy advice proffered by economists in the 1980s. While there are many forms of economic analysis, this article focuses upon cost-benefit analysis, especially as adopted in the work of William Nordhaus. The article addresses the way in which climate change economics subtly altered debates about climate policy from the late 1970s through the 1990s. These debates are often technical and complex, but the argument in this article is that the development of a philosophy of climate change as an issue for cost-benefit analysis has had consequences for how climate policy is made today.

  12. The economics of climate change and the theory of discounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Philibert, C.

    1999-01-01

    This paper confronts the theory of discounting with climate change economics. Standard discounting would give long-term damages a very low present value. On the other hand, low discount rates would imply more sacrifices for present generations, although future generations may be richer. And using multiple rates would lead to economic inefficiencies. The paper first shows that arguments favouring a low or zero discount rate in general are weak, even from an ethical point of view. It goes on by considering different arguments in favour of discount rates decreasing over time, and by recalling the argument that non-reproducible environmental assets should be given a value growing over time. Through the example of climate change, it finally shows that the latter argument not only implies that the costs of damages associated to climate change should not be underestimated, but also reinforce the legitimacy of using decreasing discount rates. (author)

  13. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  14. Climate Change and Bangladesh: Geographical and Socio-economic Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farjana Jahan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, the effects of greenhouse effect and global warming, is out to alter the global map with its devouring prospects of sending a number of countries under the waves. Unfortunately yet unavoidably, Bangladesh stands at the forefront of climate forays. Its land, water and weather are being severely affected by undesirable climatic changes. Alarmingly, the dangers are to be intensified unless the trend is reversed. However, local initiative will hardly be enough to offset the grave concerns of unintended climatic changes in Bangladesh. The changes will also impact the socio-economic conditions of the country, putting the future of the nation on the line. Some ominous signs are already there for the concerned to respond with required amount of fervour. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v7i0.10439 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 7, 2013; 113-132

  15. Exploring aggregate economic damage functions due to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Patwardhan, A. [and others

    1994-12-31

    A number of issues need to be considered when developing aggregated economic damage functions due to climate change. These include: (i) identification of production processes vulnerable to climate change, (ii) an understanding of the mechanism of vulnerability, (iii) the rate of technological advance and diffusion (iv) the issue of detection of damages and availability of response options. In this paper we will explore the implications of these considerations with the aid of an illustrative model. The findings suggest that there is a significant upward bias in damage functions calculated without consideration of these issues. Furthermore, this systematic bias is larger as climate change increases. We believe the approach explored here is a more suitable model for adoption in future integrated assessments of climate change.

  16. Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parey, Sylvie; Bernardara, Pietro; Donat, Markus G.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change is underway and even if mitigation measures are successfully implemented, societies will have to adapt to new climatic conditions in the near future and further. This session had been proposed to gather different studies dedicated to the climate change impact on some human activities, and discuss the possible ways of adaptation. Climate change is often presented in terms of global mean temperature evolutions, but what is important for adaptation concerns the local evolutions, and rather of the variability and extremes than of the mean of the involved meteorological parameters. In the session, studies and applications will be presented, covering different economical and industrial activities, such as energy production, (re-) insurance and risk assessment, water management or tourism.

  17. Exploring aggregate economic damage functions due to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Patwardhan, A.

    1994-01-01

    A number of issues need to be considered when developing aggregated economic damage functions due to climate change. These include: (1) identification of production processes vulnerable to climate change, (2) an understanding of the mechanism of vulnerability, (3) the rate of technological advance and diffusion, (4) the issue of detection of damages and availability of response options. In this paper the authors will explore the implications of these considerations with the aid of an illustrative model. The findings suggest that there is a significant upward bias in damage functions calculated without consideration of these issues. Furthermore, this systematic bias is larger as climate change increases. The authors believe the approach explored here is a more suitable model for adoption in future integrated assessments of climate change

  18. Climate change. Socio-economic impacts and violent conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ierland, E.C.; Klaassen, M.G.; Nierop, T.; Van der Wusten, H.

    1996-01-01

    The results of a literature study on the socio-economic impacts of climate change and the possibilities of violent conflicts enhanced by the greenhouse effect are presented. The socio-economic impacts are classified according to the economic sectors agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, water, construction, transport, tourism and recreation and discussed in Chapter 2. The impacts on property, ecosystems and human well being are outlined in chapter 3. Chapter 4 deals with climate change and environmental security, and discusses the most important concepts of security and their relation to climate change. Chapter 5 deals with already existing and potential conflicts, that may be enhanced by the greenhouse effect as a result of resource scarcity, particularly related to availability of food and water. On the basis of the literature study and an analysis of research gaps propositions are made on new areas of research to be undertaken. The study emphasizes the need to further study the impact on agriculture in semi-arid zones, the impact on water availability in sensitive regions, a further analysis of the consequences of sea level rise particularly in sensitive areas and with regard to forced migration. Also further studies are required into the socio-economic impacts of changes in human health and mortality due to climate change, in relation to diseases. Special attention should be paid to migration because of environmental degradation and flooding. Extreme weather events have already been studied, but there still is a need for further insights into how extreme weather events will affect society, taking into account adaptive behaviour. Finally, in the area of socio-economic impacts, the implications of changes in ecosystems and biodiversity require further attention as these effects may be large but, at the same time, difficult to assess in economic terms. 175 refs

  19. Current Activities of the Joint Council on Economic Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Highsmith, Robert J.

    1987-01-01

    Reviews current activities of the Joint Council, among them, a researcher training institute, a new K-12 economic education scope and sequence document, a junior high level test of economic knowledge, an instructional package for advanced placement classes, a textbook conference, a project to help teachers of students who work with at-risk…

  20. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  1. Global Economy under the Current Economic Crisis Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Voicu Ioana-Iulica; Talmaciu Iuliana

    2010-01-01

    In the current context in which countries in the world search new solutions and strategies to counteract the negative effects generated by the worst economic crisis in the last 80 years, the globalisation rises polemics and controversies regarding the causes that lead to the expansion of the crisis. May it be, the current economic crisis, a consequence of the globalisation? Beyond the contradictory answers, the globalisation must be seen in essence as a stimulating and expansion factor of the...

  2. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buergenmeier, B.; Ferrier, C.; Ingold, K.; Perret, S.; Baranzini, A.; Germond-Duret, C.; Kypreos, S.; Wokaun, A.; Rafaj, P.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

  3. Economic Impact Assessment of Alternative Climate Policy Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemfert, C.

    2001-10-01

    This paper investigates the world economic implications of climate change policy strategies, especially the evaluation of impacts by an implementation of Clean Development Mechanisms, Joint Implementation and Emissions trading with a world integrated assessment model. Of special interest in this context are the welfare spill over and competitiveness effects that result from diverse climate policy strategies. In particular, this study elaborates and compares multi gas policy strategies and explores the impacts of the inclusion of sinks. Because of the recent decision of an isolated climate policy strategy by the United States of America, we examine the economic impacts of all world regions by a non cooperative and free rider position of the USA. It turns out that Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation show evidence of improvement in the economic development in the host countries and increase the share of new applied technologies. The decomposition of welfare effects demonstrates that the competitiveness effect including the spill over effects from trade have the strongest importance because of the intense trade relations between countries. Climatic effects have a significant impact within the next 50 years, cause considerable welfare losses to world regions and will intensify if some highly responsible nations like the USA do not reduce their emissions

  4. Evaluating economic costs and benefits of climate resilient livelihood strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A major challenge for international development is to assist the poorest regions to achieve development targets while taking climate change into account. Such ‘climate resilient development’ (CRD must identify and implement adaptation strategies for improving livelihoods while also being cost-effective. While the idea that climate resilience and development goals should be compatible is often discussed, empirical evaluations of the economic impacts of actual CRD investments are practically non-existent. This paper outlines a framework to evaluate economic returns to CRD and applies it in two adaptation strategies trialed in Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, eastern Indonesia. The evaluation framework is composed of three models: a household benefit cost model, a diffusion model, and a regional benefit cost model. The models draw upon the impact evaluation, technology diffusion, and risk assessment literatures, respectively. The analyzes are based on expert opinion and locally-derived information, and hence can be applied in data-poor situations typical of developing countries. Our results explore economic costs and benefits at the household and regional scale, and we identify key input variables that greatly influence the economic returns of the strategies. These variables should therefore be a focus of ongoing investment. We also discuss how the framework is more generally applicable, its limitations including challenges in accounting for less tangible social and ecosystem service benefits, potentially leading to the underestimation of impacts, and how the approach should be complemented by qualitative methods.

  5. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-01

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

  6. Economic analysis of hybrid power systems (PV/diesel) in different climatic zones of Tamil Nadu

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suresh Kumar, U.; Manoharan, P.S.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Investigation on economic feasibility of PV/diesel system in various climatic zones. • HOMER is used to solve economic feasibility analysis. • By the sensitivity analysis, the net present cost is reduced. • Optimum climatic zone in Tamil Nadu, India is recommended. - Abstract: With the increasing threat to environment and the fast depleting fossil fuel resources, hybrid power systems consisting of two or more renewable energy sources such as solar PV, wind, biomass, ocean thermal-with or without the back up of diesel generator have come to the forefront. These hybrid systems are normally integrated with battery banks for total reliability; such systems have brought about better quality of life in remote areas of developing economics. The remote areas in the state of Tamil Nadu in India possess excellent renewable energy sources. These areas fall under different climatic zones, are sparsely populated and are in the process of development. Though these areas are connected to the grid, Tamil Nadu grid is not stable; it is currently experiencing 40% short fall in generation. Thus grid power is available to these remote areas only for 10 h a day and even when available, there are voltage frequency problems. This paper analyses the economic feasibility of installing and operating hybrid systems in these areas. The areas are divided into different climatic zones and the hybrid system economy is analyzed for each climatic zone on the basis of NPC (net present cost), consumption of diesel and renewable fraction for all climate zones. The analysis indicates that the interior climatic zone – the area would be the optimum climatic zone to install HPS PV/diesel. The sensitivity analysis proves that the NPC of such a system can be reduced. It is suggested that due to high initial cost, government subsidy is necessary to adopt the system on a large scale. Such a profit will encourage development of renewable energy utilization and bring about rapid

  7. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  8. Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

  9. Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-12-01

    Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

  10. Economics of climate change under uncertainty. Benefits of flexibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anda, Jon; Golub, Alexander; Strukova, Elena

    2009-01-01

    The selection of climate policy has to be made in an extremely uncertain environment: both benefits and costs of a particular climate policy are unknown and in the best case could be described by the probability distribution of various outcomes. Dominated in literature, the expected value approach to the cost-benefit analysis of climate policy under uncertainties relies on the aggregated estimation of various outcomes of climate policy weighted and averaged by probabilities. The variance, skewness, and kurtosis are important characteristics of uncertainties but can be easily lost in the process of aggregation. The real option analysis (ROA) explicitly accounts for both the expected value of underling assets and the variance of the expected value (as well as skewness and kurtosis that are important to describe a fat tail phenomenon). In the paper, we propose an application of the real option analysis in order to formulate rules for the selection of a climate policy (emission target) and estimate the economic value of the future flexibility created by interim climate policy, which may be corrected in the future in response to new knowledge that hopefully reduces uncertainties. The initially selected interim policy has an option value and methodology for its valuation presented in the paper. (author)

  11. Climate change impacts in Northern Canada: Assessing our current knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gill, M.J.; Eamer, J. [Environment Canada, Environmental Conservation Branch, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Munier, A.; Ogden, A. [Yukon College, Northern Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Duerden, F. [Ryerson University, School of Applied Geography, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hik, D. [Alberta Univ., Dept. of Biological Sciences, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Fox, S.; Riedlinger, D.; Thorpe, N. [GeoNorth Limited, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Johnson, I.; Jensen, M. [Legend Seekers Anthropological Research, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    A research project by the Northern Climate ExChange at Yukon College, undertaken to bring together into one document all relevant information that will help facilitate the identification of priorities for climate change research, monitoring, technological development and policy development in Canada's North, is described. In addition to the report, project deliverables also include a database of climate change information sources and a database of northern climate change contacts. The review includes scientific, local and Traditional Knowledge sources relating to climate change about each of seventeen natural and human systems (e.g. boreal forests, community health, mining, etc.), synthesized into a table for each system, with projected environmental changes crossed in matrix format with system components. Each cross-relationship was given a ranking; supporting information was included, based on the current state of knowledge of that relationship. In general, current information concerning northern systems, predicted climate changes and the impacts of those changes on northern systems is poor. However, much information does exist and the gap analysis revealed a number of general patterns relating to this information. Clearly, more research is required throughout northern Canada, but in particular, in the eastern Arctic, to provide a greater understanding of the implications of climate changes across the North, and to aid in the development of finer-scale, regional circulation models resulting in better predictive capacity of climate change and its impacts on northern areas.

  12. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  13. Economics, ethics, and climate policy: framing the debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howarth, Richard B.; Monahan, Patricia A.

    1996-04-01

    This paper examines the economic and ethical dimensions of climate policy in light of existing knowledge of the impacts of global warming and the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement. We find that the criterion of economic efficiency, operationalized through cost-benefit analysis, is ill-equipped to cope with the pervasive uncertainties and issues of intergenerational fairness that characterize climate change. In contrast, the concept of sustainable development—that today's policies should ensure that future generations enjoy life opportunities undiminished relative to the present—is a normative criterion that explicitly addresses the uncertainties and distributional aspects of global environmental change. If one interprets the sustainability criterion to imply that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for significant steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  14. Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This research will aim to study from an interdisciplinary perspective the economic and social impact of changes in water availability and quality due to climate ... Dans le cadre de ce projet, on étudiera les efforts déployés par le secteur privé pour améliorer la conformité aux lois contre la corruption en Amérique latine.

  15. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  16. EU climate policy up to 2020: An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph, E-mail: boehringer@uni-oldenburg.d [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost.

  17. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas; Moslener, Ulf; Rutherford, Thomas F.

    2009-01-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  18. The current economic and financial crisis: a gender perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Antonopoulos, Rania

    2009-01-01

    Widespread economic recessions and protracted financial crises have been documented as setting back gender equality and other development goals in the past. In the midst of the current global crisis--often referred to as "the Great Recession"--there is grave concern that progress made in poverty reduction and women's equality will be reversed. Indeed, for many developing countries it is particularly worrisome that, through no fault of their own, the global economic downturn has exacerbated ef...

  19. Climate changes, raw materials shortage, and economic development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joest, F.

    1994-01-01

    The possibility of a climate change being brought about by our national economies has dominated the national and international ecopolitical discussion of the past few years like no other topic. The present study is an attempt at an as comprehensive an examination as possible of this problem. It works from the assumption that examining and solving environmental problems requires the cooperation and creativity of investigators from different disciplines. It accordingly develops a concept permitting an integration of scientific, economic, and ethical questions impinging on the problem of the greenhouse effect. Thus the study contributes to the groundwork of an ecological economics. The interdisciplinary approach to analysing the connections between climate changes, raw materials consumption, and economic development is variously seen to pinpoint the complex temporal structure of the problems. It becomes clear that ecopolitical measures take a long time to actually become effective. Besides shifiting the focus to questions as to the scope and limits of politico-economic action, the temporal strucutre of the problem also reveals the limitations of scientifically founded ecopolitical recommendations. This brings the ethical aspect of analysing and solving environmental problems to the fore. (orig./UA) [de

  20. Economic Value of an Advanced Climate Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

    2013-12-01

    Scientific missions increasingly need to show the monetary value of knowledge advances in budget-constrained environments. For example, suppose a climate science mission promises to yield decisive information on the rate of human caused global warming within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) creates a standard yardstick for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, setting uncertainty in climate sensitivity to a truncated Roe and Baker (2007) distribution, setting discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate mitigation response DICE Optimal, and a strong response scenario (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we are on the BAU emissions scenario, and that we would switch to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on the uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain that it happens depends, in addition, on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can shorten the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. Our results (Cooke et al. 2013

  1. Impacts of climatic change on water and associated economic activities in the Swiss Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, Martin

    2012-01-01

    SummaryThe European Alps are one region of the world where climate-driven changes are already perceptible, as exemplified by the general retreat of mountain glaciers over past decades. Temperatures have risen by up to 2 °C since 1900 particularly at high elevations, a rate that is roughly three times the global-average 20th century warming. Regional climate models suggest that by 2100, winters in Switzerland may warm by 3-5 °C and summers by 6-7 °C according to greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, while precipitation is projected to increase in winter and sharply decrease in summer. The impacts of these levels of climatic change will affect both the natural environment and a number of economic activities. Alpine glaciers may lose between 50% and 90% of their current volume and the average snowline will rise by 150 m for each degree of warming. Hydrological systems will respond in quantity and seasonality to changing precipitation patterns and to the timing of snow-melt in the Alps, with a greater risk of flooding during the spring and droughts in summer and fall. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, agriculture and the insurance industry that will be confronted to more frequent natural disasters. This paper will thus provide an overview of the current state of knowledge on climatic change and its impacts on the Alpine world.

  2. Climate Change, Air Pollution, and the Economics of Health Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, J.; Yang, T.; Paltsev, S.; Wang, C.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.

    2003-12-01

    Climate change and air pollution are intricately linked. The distinction between greenhouse substances and other air pollutants is resolved at least for the time being in the context of international negotiations on climate policy through the identification of CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 and the per- and hydro- fluorocarbons as substances targeted for control. Many of the traditional air pollutant emissions including for example CO, NMVOCs, NOx, SO2, aerosols, and NH3 also directly or indirectly affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Among both sets of gases are precursors of and contributors to pollutants such as tropopospheric ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas, particulate matter, and other pollutants that affect human health. Fossil fuel combustion, production, or transportation is a significant source for many of these substances. Climate policy can thus affect traditional air pollution or air pollution policy can affect climate. Health effects of acute or chronic exposure to air pollution include increased asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and bronchitis among others. These, in turn, redirect resources in the economy toward medical expenditures or result in lost labor or non-labor time with consequent effects on economic activity, itself producing a potential feedback on emissions levels. Study of these effects ultimately requires a fully coupled earth system model. Toward that end we develop an approach for introducing air pollution health impacts into the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) a coupled economics-chemistry-atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial biosphere model of earth systems including an air pollution model resolving the urban scale. This preliminary examination allows us to consider how climate policy affects air pollution and consequent health effects, and to study the potential impacts of air pollution policy on climate. The novel contribution is the effort to

  3. The institutional economics of market-based climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woerdman, E.

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this book is to analyze the institutional barriers to implementing market-based climate policy, as well as to provide some opportunities to overcome them. The approach is that of institutional economics, with special emphasis on political transaction costs and path dependence. Instead of rejecting the neoclassical approach, this book uses it where fruitful and shows when and why it is necessary to employ a new or neo-institutionalist approach. The result is that equity is considered next to efficiency, that the evolution and possible lock-in of both formal and informal climate institutions are studied, and that attention is paid to the politics and law of economic instruments for climate policy, including some new empirical analyses. The research topics of this book include the set-up costs of a permit trading system, the risk that credit trading becomes locked-in, the potential legal problem of grandfathering in terms of actional subsidies under WTO law or state aid under EC law, and the changing attitudes of various European officials towards restricting the use of the Kyoto Mechanisms

  4. Environmental economics and policy making in developing countries. Current issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motta, R.S. da

    2001-01-01

    In developing countries, where growth expectations are high, least-cost environmental policies are crucial since they can reduce the conflict between economic growth and the environment. In view of this, policymakers in these economies must be very aware of the relationship between economic and environmental issues to offer policy initiatives which can increase efficiency and improve equity. The authors provide a comprehensive analysis of topics varying from the general problems of growth and conservation to specific applications such as; pollution costs, environmental taxation, deforestation and climate change. This volume also offers policymakers a comprehensive view of the challenges they face, and the legacies they leave, in order to convert environmental policy making into an actual programme of welfare improvement. (author)

  5. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  6. Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Malekian, Arash; Khalili, Ali

    2018-02-01

    During recent years, various studies have focused on investigating the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes in Iran while the noteworthy fact is the achievement gained by these researches. Furthermore, what should be taken into consideration is whether these studies have been able to provide appropriate opportunities for improving further studies in this particular field or not. To address these questions, this study systematically reviewed and summarized the current available literature (n = 150) regarding the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Iran to assess our current state of knowledge. The results revealed that while all studies discuss the probable changes in temperature and precipitation over the next decades, serious contradictions could be seen in their results; also, the general pattern of changes was different in most of the cases. This matter may have a significant effect on public beliefs in climate change, which can be a serious warning for the activists in this realm.

  7. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  8. Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sequeira, Tiago Neves; Santos, Marcelo Serra; Magalhães, Manuela

    2018-05-31

    Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on economic growth must therefore be analyzed in accordance with its (time-varying) common effects. We present an econometric analysis that evaluates this effect taking into account its global nature. Contrary to previous evidence that ignores the global effects, we obtain that the rising temperature has not decreased growth in real GDP per capita in the second half of the twentieth century for the world countries. However, we obtain a negative effect of rising temperatures and a positive effect of rising precipitation in poor countries. This positive effect of rising precipitation is also confirmed for hot and temperate countries.

  9. Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T

    2016-06-01

    The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Comments on Current Space Systems Observing the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, L. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which was established in 1992, has been effective in specifying the observations needed for climate studies, and advocating that these observations be made. As a result, there are essential climate variables being observed, particularly from space, and these have formed the basis for our ever-improving models of how the Earth system functions and the human impact on it. We cannot conclude, however, that the current observing system in space is adequate. Climate change is accelerating, and we need to ensure that our observations capture, with completeness and with proper resolution and cadence, the most important changes. Perhaps of most significance, we need to use observations from space to guide the mitigation and adaptation strategies on which at last our civilization seems prepared to embark. And we need to use our observations to educate particularly policy makers on the reality of climate change, so that none deny the need to act. COSPAR is determined to play its part in highlighting the need to strengthen the climate observing system and notably its research component. This is being accomplished through events like the present roundtable, through the work of its Scientific Commission A, its Task Group on GEO (where COSPAR is serving as a member of its Program Board), and by promoting among space agencies and policy-makers the recently released scientific roadmap on Integrated Earth System Science for the period 2016-2025.

  11. The American Climate Prospectus: a risk-centered analysis of the economic impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.; Houser, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Delgado, M.; Larsen, K.; Mohan, S.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Wilson, P. S.; Muir-Wood, R.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in six sectors - crop yields, energy demand, coastal property, crime, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. The ACP is unique in its characterization of the full probability distribution of economic impacts of climate change throughout the 21st century, making it an extremely useful basis for risk assessments. Three key innovations allow for this characterization. First, climate projections from CMIP5 models are scaled to a temperature probability distribution derived from a coarser climate model (MAGICC). This allows a more accurate representation of the whole distribution of future climates (in particular the tails) than a simple ensemble average. These are downscaled both temporally and spatially. Second, a set of local sea level rise and tropical cyclone projections are used in conjunction with the most detailed dataset of coastal property in the US in order to capture the risks of rising seas and storm surge. Third, we base many of our sectors on empirically-derived responses to temperature and precipitation. Each of these dose-response functions is resampled many times to populate a statistical distribution. Combining these with uncertainty in emissions scenario, climate model, and weather, we create the full probability distribution of climate impacts from county up to national levels, as well as model the effects upon the economy as a whole. Results are presented as likelihood ranges, as well as changes to return intervals of extreme events. The ACP analysis allows us to compare between sectors to understand the magnitude of required policy responses, and also to identify risks through time. Many sectors displaying large impacts at the end of the century, like those of mortality, have smaller changes in the near-term, due to non-linearities in the response functions. Other sectors, like

  12. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism: Challenges for Ski Area Operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damm, A.; Köberl, J.; Prettenthaler, F.; Töglhofer, C.

    2012-04-01

    Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons pose a big challenge for the winter tourism industry. Changing natural snow reliability influences tourism demand and ski area operators are faced with an enhanced need of technical snow production. The goal of the present research work is to analyze the economic effects of technical snow production under future climate conditions. Snowmaking as an adaptation strategy to climate change impacts on the ski tourism industry is already taken into consideration in several studies from a scientific perspective concerning snowmaking potentials under future climate conditions and the impacts on ski season length (e.g. Scott et al. 2003; Scott & McBoyle 2007; Hennessy et al. 2008; Steiger 2010). A few studies considered economic aspects of technical snowmaking (e.g. Teich et al. 2007; Gonseth 2008). However, a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of snowmaking under future climate and snow conditions based on sophisticated climate and snow models has not been carried out yet. The present study addresses the gap of knowledge concerning the economic profitability of prospective snowmaking requirements under future climate scenarios. We carry out a detailed cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking under current and future climate conditions for a case study site in Styria (Austria) using dynamic investment models. The starting point of all economic calculations is the daily demand for artificial snow that determines the requirements for additional snowmaking investments and additional operating costs. The demand for artificial snow is delivered by the snow cover model AMUNDSEN (see Strasser et al. 2011) and is driven by four climate scenarios. Apart from future climate conditions the profitability of snowmaking depends on changes in costs and visitor numbers. The results of a ski tourism demand model analyzing daily visitor numbers and their dependencies of prevailing weather conditions enter the cost-revenue analysis of

  13. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ARMENIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arus Tunian

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of the problem of economic growth in Armenia. It is identified the nature of the balance of payments of the country, indicating a net debtor position, which leads to inherent deterioration of the international investment position. A small open economy of Armenia moves to a new phase of development, in the frame of the integration processes within the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. One of the main characteristics of the Armenian economy vulnerability remains a negative balance in foreign trade, which continues to grow, despite the export growth. Economic growth is provided, as before, mostly due to the sale of raw materials - non-ferrous metals and metal ores, both in the primary as well as in the previous preprocessing. Estimating the econometric VAR models revealed that the negative current account impacts on GDP growth negatively.

  14. 2004-2015 A decade of expertise on climate economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ducret, Pierre; Leguet, Benoit

    2015-01-01

    I4CE - the Institute for Climate Economics is an initiative of the Caisse des Depots, which continues to support it, and the Agence Francaise de Developpement, which has joined this project, giving the Institute a strong international dimension. The two major French public financial institutions are thus joining forces to create a real think tank, open to other partnerships. From the outset, I4CE benefits from the expertise and reputation which CDC Climat Research has acquired over ten years through its publicly available research, its discussions with public and private decision makers, and its research partnerships with other teams in France, Europe and around the world. I4CE aims at strengthening this independent economic expertise and increasing its influence. The creation of I4CE in 2015 is a step towards creating an agenda of solutions for the climate. I4CE hopes that its work will feed into efforts by France and international negotiators to reach an agreement in Paris in December 2015. However, I4CE has long believed that the transition towards a 'de-carbonised' economy which is resilient to climate change does not depend solely upon work by governments. I4CE believes that three other categories of stakeholders are just as essential for ensuring that this change is successful: - the industrial sector, and the energy sector in particular, the speed of transformation of which will depend greatly upon the inclusion of a carbon price in its model; - the finance sector which now must incorporate the 2 deg. C objective into the way in which it allocates capital; - regional stakeholders which decide on the future of cities, agriculture and forestry. I4CE has developed and organised its research programme for the coming years around these three areas, with the aim of providing its partners with the keys to understanding and decision making, acting as a meeting point for the best academic work and the constraints of political and economic action. This

  15. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

    2018-05-01

    Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

  16. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    . The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate......More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level...... and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level...

  17. The Economics of Climate Change in Kenya: Final Report submitted in advance of COP15

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom; Watkiss, Paul; Dyszynski, Jillian; Butterfield, Ruth; Devisscher, Tahia; Pye, Steve; Droogers, Peter; Ali, Basra; Harding, Brian; Tas, Adriaan; Blois, Mark de; Tadege, Abebe; Hunt, Alistair; Taylor, Tim; Bouma, Menno; Kovats, Sari; Maitima, Joseph; Mugatha, Simon; Kariuki, Patrick; Mariene, Lea; Worden, Jeff; Western, David; Waruingi, Lucy; Brown, Sally; Kebede, Abiy; Nicholls, Robert; Lager, Bo; Otiende, Brian; Chambwera, Muyeye; Birch, Tom; Mutimba, Stephen; Sang, Joan

    2009-12-15

    Existing climate variability has significant economic costs in Kenya. Periodic floods and droughts (extremes) cause major macro-economic costs and reductions in economic growth. Future climate change will lead to additional and potentially very large economic costs. These are uncertain. However, aggregate models indicate additional net economic costs (on top of existing climate variability) could be equivalent to a loss of almost 3% of GDP each year by 2030 in Kenya. Costs include potential threats to coastal zones (sea-level rise), health burdens, energy demand, infrastructure, water resources, agriculture and loss of ecosystem services. The study has addressed the potential impacts and economic costs in these sectors. These highlight the importance of preparing for future climate change. While it is difficult to predict effects with confidence, there is a need to plan robust strategies to prepare for the future, rather than using uncertainty as a reason for inaction. Adaptation can reduce the economic costs of climate change but it has a cost. The costs of adaptation are still emerging. A number of categories of adaptation have been identified that relate to the balance between development and climate change. An initial estimate of immediate needs for addressing current climate as well as preparing for future climate change for Kenya is USD 500 million/year (for 2012). The cost of adaptation by 2030 will increase: an upper estimate of the cost is likely to be in the range of USD 1 to 2 billion/year. The study has also prioritised early adaptation across the sectors. These studies demonstrate that adaptation has potentially very large benefits in reducing present and future damages. However, while adaptation reduces damages, it does not remove them entirely. Residual impacts in Kenya, particularly for some regions and groups are expected and need to be managed. The analysis has considered future emissions for Kenya, consistent with planned development. Emissions

  18. The Economics of Climate Change in Kenya: Final Report submitted in advance of COP15

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom; Watkiss, Paul; Dyszynski, Jillian; Butterfield, Ruth; Devisscher, Tahia; Pye, Steve; Droogers, Peter; Ali, Basra; Harding, Brian; Tas, Adriaan; Blois, Mark de; Tadege, Abebe; Hunt, Alistair; Taylor, Tim; Bouma, Menno; Kovats, Sari; Maitima, Joseph; Mugatha, Simon; Kariuki, Patrick; Mariene, Lea; Worden, Jeff; Western, David; Waruingi, Lucy; Brown, Sally; Kebede, Abiy; Nicholls, Robert; Lager, Bo; Otiende, Brian; Chambwera, Muyeye; Birch, Tom; Mutimba, Stephen; Sang, Joan

    2009-12-15

    Existing climate variability has significant economic costs in Kenya. Periodic floods and droughts (extremes) cause major macro-economic costs and reductions in economic growth. Future climate change will lead to additional and potentially very large economic costs. These are uncertain. However, aggregate models indicate additional net economic costs (on top of existing climate variability) could be equivalent to a loss of almost 3% of GDP each year by 2030 in Kenya. Costs include potential threats to coastal zones (sea-level rise), health burdens, energy demand, infrastructure, water resources, agriculture and loss of ecosystem services. The study has addressed the potential impacts and economic costs in these sectors. These highlight the importance of preparing for future climate change. While it is difficult to predict effects with confidence, there is a need to plan robust strategies to prepare for the future, rather than using uncertainty as a reason for inaction. Adaptation can reduce the economic costs of climate change but it has a cost. The costs of adaptation are still emerging. A number of categories of adaptation have been identified that relate to the balance between development and climate change. An initial estimate of immediate needs for addressing current climate as well as preparing for future climate change for Kenya is USD 500 million/year (for 2012). The cost of adaptation by 2030 will increase: an upper estimate of the cost is likely to be in the range of USD 1 to 2 billion/year. The study has also prioritised early adaptation across the sectors. These studies demonstrate that adaptation has potentially very large benefits in reducing present and future damages. However, while adaptation reduces damages, it does not remove them entirely. Residual impacts in Kenya, particularly for some regions and groups are expected and need to be managed. The analysis has considered future emissions for Kenya, consistent with planned development. Emissions

  19. Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  20. Evolving local climate adaptation strategies: incorporating influences of socio–economic stress

    OpenAIRE

    Hjerpe, Mattias; Glaas, Erik

    2012-01-01

    Socio-economic and climatic stresses affect local communities’ vulnerability toflooding. Better incorporation of socio-economic stress in local vulnerability assessments isimportant when planning for climate adaptation. This is rarely done due to insufficientunderstanding of their interaction, in both theory and practice. The omission leads to criticalweaknesses in local adaptation strategies. This study analyses how socio-economic stressinteract with climatic stress and shape local vulnerabi...

  1. Supplementary material for the report 'Economic/climate recovery scorecards. How climate friendly are the economic recovery packages?'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoehne, N.; Eisbrenner, K.; Phylipsen, D.; Burck, J.; Van der Straeten, L.

    2009-03-01

    As global leaders head to the G20 summit to consider solutions to the current global economic crisis, a new report prepared by Ecofys and Germanwatch for WWF and E3G reveals that many of the economic recovery packages being discussed are a missed opportunity in terms of stimulating a green recovery, and actually run the risk of locking the world into a high-carbon future. The report provides the most detailed and comprehensive analysis to date of the proposed 'stimulus' packages of five key countries - France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US - as well as the package agreed by the European Union as a whole.

  2. The current Russian model of social development, and economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V V Paramonov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Although the Article 7 of the Constitution of Russia adopted in 1993 defines the country as a social state, the contemporary social and economic situation is significantly different from this declaration. The author considers the current situation focusing on the foundations of the welfare state. The indicators of social inequality and stratification that allow to identify the country as a social state prove the widening gap between the rich and poor. In recent years, nothing has been done to achieve the more equitable distribution of income and national wealth, which led to the further growth of social inequality exceeding the global indices. The author believes that the high level of social inequality negatively affects the economic growth. Based on the studies of Russian scientists he concludes that equal distribution of income provides higher rates of economic growth and prosperity of the country. The modified theory of the factors of production explains this interconnection, and adds a few more factors, including such a specific resource as sales market, to three factors introduced by J.B. Say at the beginning of the XIX century. The huge social inequality and, consequently, a significant number of the poor deprive the country of such an important resource. To change the situation, the author proposes to return to the progressive tax scale and introduce the zero rate of income tax for the poorest groups in order to create prerequisites for the growth of consumer demand under the economic crisis.

  3. Will current probabilistic climate change information, as such, improve adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, A.; Smith, L. A.

    2012-04-01

    Probabilistic climate scenarios are currently being provided to end users, to employ as probabilities in adaptation decision making, with the explicit suggestion that they quantify the impacts of climate change relevant to a variety of sectors. These "probabilities" are, however, rather sensitive to the assumptions in, and the structure of the modelling approaches used to generate them. It is often argued that stakeholders require probabilistic climate change information to adequately evaluate and plan adaptation pathways. On the other hand, some circumstantial evidence suggests that on the ground decision making rarely uses well defined probability distributions of climate change as inputs. Nevertheless it is within this context of probability distributions of climate change that we discuss possible drawbacks of supplying information that, while presented as robust and decision relevant, , is in fact unlikely to be so due to known flaws both in the underlying models and in the methodology used to "account for" those known flaws. How might one use a probability forecast that is expected to change in the future, not due to a refinement in our information but due to fundamental flaws in its construction? What then are the alternatives? While the answer will depend on the context of the problem at hand, a good approach will be strongly informed by the timescale of the given planning decision, and the consideration of all the non-climatic factors that have to be taken into account in the corresponding risk assessment. Using a water resources system as an example, we illustrate an alternative approach to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today.

  4. Performance of laying hens and economic viability of different climatization systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela F. Silva

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Since thermal environment affects production, egg quality and laying hens’ mortality rates, it is highly relevant to control the thermal environment within poultry houses so that the best financial profits could be obtained. Three commercial poultry houses with different climatization systems are analyzed in current research: a poultry house with tunnel-like ventilation and pad cooling; a poultry house with natural ventilation and nebulization; a poultry house with simple natural ventilation. Their thermal environment, production, egg quality and laying hens’ mortality rates among different poultry houses and at different areas of the same poultry house are compared. Economic profits based on difference in electric energy consumption by climatization systems and on the laying hens’ productivity of each poultry house are calculated. Electricity meters were installed within the electrical circuits of the climatization and light systems of the three poultry houses. Data were registered between December 2011 and March 2012 and results showed that all the poultry houses featured heterogeneity in internal thermal environment with faults in the climatization systems. Important differences were reported in egg production and quality caused by overheating. The poultry house with tunnel-like ventilation and pad cooling had the best thermal isolation from the external environment that resulted in a 12.04% improvement in production, decrease between 30 and 40% in laying hens’ mortality rates and the best economic result.

  5. Contradictions among economic development, climate changes and nuclear renaissance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dias, Marcio Soares; Mattos, Joao Roberto Loureiro de

    2008-01-01

    The climate variations are near the dangerous limits requesting the coordinated actions from the countries which are researching the stabilization for the atmospheric concentration of the carbon dioxide, and the mitigation of the global heating. During thousand years the mankind development have been determined by the capacity of using energy for the production of goods and services, and the mankind welfare itself. For millennia, this capacity has been contained and totally attended in the process of organic based fuel burning. Presently, the non sustainable standard of supplying and worldwide energy use is questioned in the framework of own definition of the human economic development and welfare. The world needs a global energetic revolution, involving the nuclear and renewable energies able to completely transform the way we use to produce and use energy, even though that revolution brings internal contradictions and review of established concepts

  6. Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience: Current Status and Trends for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-12-30

    Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.

  7. A farm-level analysis of economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, H.M.; Sampath, R.; Riha, S.J.; Wilks, D.S.; Rossiter, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    The potential economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming are examined at the farm level. Three models of the relevant climatic, agronomic, and economic processes are developed and linked to address climate change impacts and agricultural adaptability. Several climate warming severity. The results indicate that grain farmers in southern Minnesota can effectively adapt to a gradually changing climate (warmer and either wetter or drier) by adopting later maturing cultivars, changing crop mix, and altering the timing of field operations to take advantage of a longer growing season resulting from climate warming

  8. Potential economic effects of climate change on Finnish agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. KETTUNEN

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In the assessment of the economic effects of climate change, changes in returns and costs have to be taken into consideration. Changes in returns are mainly caused by changes in the yield level. Costs are determined by various factors. Harvesting conditions may improve as the temperatures are higher. However, an increasing need for disease and pest control results in higher costs. Various extensive studies have indicated that rising temperatures with the CO2 fertilizing effect increase the crop potential in Finland. From the economic point of view an increase in yield level is highly significant, because the increase in costs remains quite small. A 10% increase in the yield level raises the farm income by about 6%. Because agriculture is supported in many ways either directly or indirectly, the rise in income level may be offset by lowering the support. Consequently, farmers may not benefit from an increase in the yield level, but the benefit will go to the state economy. However, an increase in the yield level resulting from rising temperatures is advantageous to the national economy, regardless of whether the benefit goes to the farmers or to the state.;

  9. New approaches to business cycle theory in current economic science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica DOBRESCU

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In modern economies, current research generally acknowledges that the central issues in macroeconomics are essentially the same as those identified by Keynes in the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. One way or the other, economists are trying to address the same macroeconomic issues that they did seven decades ago: How can we account for the different growth rates and various fluctuations observed in national economies? Which are the economic policies most suitable to solve the issues of growth and cyclic behavior? Both the new classicals and the new Keynesians have made considerable progress within their research paradigms: to explain economic fluctuations, the new classicals focus on technological perturbations, the intertemporal substitution of leisure and real business cycles; on the other hand, the new Keynesians speak in terms of monopolistic competition, menu costs or efficiency wages. On the whole, the new classicals believe that the business cycle can best be understood within the market-clearing model, whereas the new keynesians believe that business fluctuations are due to certain market failures of various sorts.The present paper focuses on the main directions of research of the new classical school on the business cycle, given that the theoretical progress in this field has been significant and relevant for economic policy during the past four decades.

  10. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  11. The current investment climate for midstream gas processing assets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brouwer, R.J.

    1999-01-01

    Topics discussed in this paper dealing with the current investment climate for midstream gas processing assets include: (1) strategic reasons to retain or divest midstream assets, (2) available options for midstream asset divestment, (3) midstream market fundamentals, and (4) financial performance of midstream companies. There are some 700 gas plants in Alberta at present, of which about 20 per cent are owned by midstream companies . About one half of the plants are smaller than 12.5 MMCFD which represent inefficient use of resources; a clear indication that there are substantial opportunities for consolidation. 1 tab., 4 figs

  12. Economic impacts of climate change. Flooding and salinity in scenarios, models and cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonkhoff, W.; Koops, O.; Van der Krogt, R.; Oude Essink, G.; Rietveld, E.

    2008-07-01

    In this report, climatic and economic scenarios are combined and future risks are calculated for the consequences of climate change, such as a rising sea level, flooding, extreme draughts and salinity. The calculation of these economic effects of climate change are based on climate scenarios of the KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute), TNO's RAEM model (Spatial General Economic Model), the high tide information system of the Dutch Ministry of Waterways and Public Works and the Space scanner of the Environmental Assessment Agency. Next to information on scenarios and models, this report also addresses damage calculations of flooding near Lopik and Ter Heide. The report ends with policy recommendations for adaptation policy. [mk] [nl

  13. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that increases the vulnerability of the built environment. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska’s public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenar...

  14. Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Narita, D.; Anthoff, D.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2010-01-01

    Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. In the

  15. Vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains in the light of current climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Łupikasza, Ewa; Szypuła, Bartłomiej

    2018-04-01

    The paper discusses temporal changes in the configuration of vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains as a result of current climate change. Meteorological stations are scarce in the Tatra Mountains; therefore, we modelled decadal air temperatures using existing data from 20 meteorological stations and the relationship between air temperature and altitude. Air temperature was modelled separately for northern and southern slopes and for convex and concave landforms. Decadal air temperatures were additionally used to delineate five climatic belts previously distinguished by Hess on the basis of threshold values of annual air temperature. The spatial extent and location of the borderline isotherms of 6, 4, 2, 0, and - 2 °C for four decades, including 1951-1960, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010, were compared. Significant warming in the Tatra Mountains, uniform in the vertical profile, started at the beginning of the 1980s and led to clear changes in the extent and location of the vertical climatic belts delineated on the basis of annual air temperature. The uphill shift of the borderline isotherms was more prominent on southern than on northern slopes. The highest rate of changes in the extent of the climatic belts was found above the isotherm of 0 °C (moderately cold and cold belts). The cold belt dramatically diminished in extent over the research period.

  16. Economics of climate change : sensitivity analysis of social cost of carbon

    OpenAIRE

    Torniainen, Sami

    2016-01-01

    Social cost of carbon (SCC) is the key concept in the economics of climate change. It measures the economic cost of climate impacts. SCC has influence on how beneficial it is to prevent climate change: if the value of SCC increases, investments to low-carbon technology become more attractive and profitable. This paper examines the sensitivity of two important assumptions that affect to SCC: the choice of a discount rate and time horizon. Using the integrated assessment model, ...

  17. Energy Economics of Farm Biogas in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pillay, Pragasen; Grimberg, Stefan; Powers, Susan E

    2012-10-24

    Anaerobic digestion of farm and dairy waste has been shown to be capital intensive. One way to improve digester economics is to co-digest high-energy substrates together with the dairy manure. Cheese whey for example represents a high-energy substrate that is generated during cheese manufacture. There are currently no quantitative tools available that predict performance of co-digestion farm systems. The goal of this project was to develop a mathematical tool that would (1) predict the impact of co-digestion and (2) determine the best use of the generated biogas for a cheese manufacturing plant. Two models were developed that separately could be used to meet both goals of the project. Given current pricing structures of the most economical use of the generated biogas at the cheese manufacturing plant was as a replacement of fuel oil to generate heat. The developed digester model accurately predicted the performance of 26 farm digesters operating in the North Eastern U.S.

  18. Economic evaluations of personalized medicine: existing challenges and current developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shabaruddin FH

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Fatiha H Shabaruddin,1 Nigel D Fleeman,2 Katherine Payne3 1Department of Pharmacy, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; 2Liverpool Reviews and Implementation Group (LRiG, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; 3Institute of Population Health, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK Abstract: Personalized medicine, with the aim of safely, effectively, and cost-effectively targeting treatment to a prespecified patient population, has always been a long-time goal within health care. It is often argued that personalizing treatment will inevitably improve clinical outcomes for patients and help achieve more effective use of health care resources. Demand is increasing for demonstrable evidence of clinical and cost-effectiveness to support the use of personalized medicine in health care. This paper begins with an overview of the existing challenges in conducting economic evaluations of genetics- and genomics-targeted technologies, as an example of personalized medicine. Our paper illustrates the complexity of the challenges faced by these technologies by highlighting the variations in the issues faced by diagnostic tests for somatic variations, generally referring to genetic variation in a tumor, and germline variations, generally referring to inherited genetic variation in enzymes involved in drug metabolic pathways. These tests are typically aimed at stratifying patient populations into subgroups on the basis of clinical effectiveness (response or safety (avoidance of adverse events. The paper summarizes the data requirements for economic evaluations of genetics and genomics-based technologies while outlining that the main challenges relating to data requirements revolve around the availability and quality of existing data. We conclude by discussing current developments aimed to address the challenges of assessing the cost-effectiveness of genetics and genomics-based technologies, which revolve around two central issues that are

  19. Stock markets and criticality in the current economic crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Roberto; Zembrzuski, Marcelo; Correa, Fabio C.; Lamb, Luis C.

    2010-12-01

    We show that the current economic crisis has led the market to exhibit a non-critical behavior. We do so by analyzing the quantitative parameters of time series from the main assets of the Brazilian Stock Market BOVESPA. By monitoring global persistence we show a deviation of power law behavior during the crisis in a strong analogy with spin systems (from where this concept was originally conceived). Such behavior is corroborated by an emergent heavy tail of absolute return distribution and also by the magnitude autocorrelation exponent. Comparisons with universal exponents obtained in the international stock markets are also performed. This suggests how a thorough analysis of suitable exponents can bring a possible way of forecasting market crises characterized by non-criticality.

  20. The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

    2016-04-01

    At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our

  1. Economic feasibility of biochar application to soils in temperate climate regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Gerhard; Bücker, Jannis; Gunczy, Stefan; Kitzler, Barbara; Klinglmüller, Michaela; Kloss, Stefanie; Watzinger, Andrea; Wimmer, Bernhard; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Zehetner, Franz

    2014-05-01

    The findings that fertility improvements in tropical soils have been successfully mediated by biochar applications have caused wide-spread interest to use biochar as a soil amendment also for soils in temperate climate regions. But these soils in intensively cultivated regions are not always as acidic or sandy as the tropical Ferralsols where biochar is most effective. Therefore it is not self-evident that different soil characteristics allow biochar to display the same benefits if site-specific demands for the optimal organic soil amendment are not considered. This study pursued the objective to study the extent of benefits that biochar could provide for crops on two typical Austrian agricultural soils in a two-year field experiment. An economic evaluation assessed the local biochar production costs and compared them with the value of the observed biochar benefits. From a business economic viewpoint, currently high costs of biochar are not balanced by only moderate increases in crop yields and thus agricultural revenues. Improved water retention due to biochar, however, might justify biochar as an adaptation measure to global warming, especially when considering beside business economic aspects also overall economic aspects. When not assuming total crop failures but only increased soil fertility, even an inclusion of avoided social (=societal) costs by sequestering carbon and thereby helping to mitigate climate change do not economically justify the application of biochar. Price of biochar would need to decrease by at least 40 % to achieve a break-even from the overall economic viewpoint (if optimistic assumptions about the social value of sequestered carbon are applied; at pessimistic assumptions price for biochar must decrease even more in order to break even). When applying an alternative type of soil treatment of using modified biochar but avoiding additional N-fertilization, a similar picture arises: Social benefits due to avoided N-fertilization and

  2. A Multidisciplinary, Science-Based Approach to the Economics of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlin, Alan

    2011-01-01

    Economic analyses of environmental mitigation and other interdisciplinary public policy issues can be much more useful if they critically examine what other disciplines have to say, insist on using the most relevant observational data and the scientific method, and examine lower cost alternatives to the change proposed. These general principles are illustrated by applying them to the case of climate change mitigation, one of the most interdisciplinary of public policy issues. The analysis shows how use of these principles leads to quite different conclusions than those of most previous such economic analyses, as follows: The economic benefits of reducing CO2 emissions may be about two orders of magnitude less than those estimated by most economists because the climate sensitivity factor (CSF) is much lower than assumed by the United Nations because feedback is negative rather than positive and the effects of CO2 emissions reductions on atmospheric CO2 appear to be short rather than long lasting.The costs of CO2 emissions reductions are very much higher than usually estimated because of technological and implementation problems recently identified.Geoengineering such as solar radiation management is a controversial alternative to CO2 emissions reductions that offers opportunities to greatly decrease these large costs, change global temperatures with far greater assurance of success, and eliminate the possibility of low probability, high consequence risks of rising temperatures, but has been largely ignored by economists.CO2 emissions reductions are economically unattractive since the very modest benefits remaining after the corrections for the above effects are quite unlikely to economically justify the much higher costs unless much lower cost geoengineering is used.The risk of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming appears to be so low that it is not currently worth doing anything to try to control it, including geoengineering. PMID:21695026

  3. Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: Current UV Index Forecast Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Service NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team Disclaimer

  4. Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services, and Climate Change : The Economic Problem

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is both a cause and an effect of biodiversity change. Along with anthropogenic dispersion, climate change is the main driver of change in the geographical distribution of both beneficial and harmful species, crops, livestock, harvested wild species, pests, predators and pathogens. And the capacity of ecosystems to adapt to climate change depends on the diversity of species t...

  5. The economic aspects of artificial snow production in the perspective of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonseth, C.

    2012-04-01

    levels that are not optimal in the sense that they do not maximize social welfare. More generally, economic analysis has the potential to explain current investment and snow production levels and to determine optimal ones. It can also predict the evolution of these levels under a warmer climate. For instance, such predictions were carried out for Switzerland as well as for other Alpine countries using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy with a time horizon up to 2050, the GEMINI-E3 model. With all these points in mind, this presentation aims at reviewing what has been done so far on the economic aspects of artificial snow production and also at identifying avenues for future research.

  6. An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yue-Jun; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2010-01-01

    The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is supposed to be an important mechanism for addressing climate change. Up to now, the theoretical foundation of EU ETS has been widely acknowledged, but empirical research on its current situation has only been published recently or is forthcoming. Therefore, this paper is aimed to summarize the main arguments of empirical studies on the EU ETS, in terms of two aspects, i.e., the operating mechanism and economic effect of the EU ETS, which are two crucial topics and have been attached much attention. Based on the shortcomings of current research and future requirements of the EU ETS evolution, finally, we also present some further directions of the EU ETS research. Overall, the research overview here may be helpful to recognize the features of the EU ETS and its effect on others. (author)

  7. Economic perspectives on the impact of climate variability and change: A summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timmerman, P.; Grima, A.P.

    1988-01-01

    A summary is presented of a collection of papers on the economic methodologies applicable to studies of the impact of global climate variability and change. The research was sponsored by the Canadian Climate program and was conducted as part of a project investigating the potential impacts on various sectors of the Canadian economy of climate warming due to the greenhouse effect. Topics of the papers include microeconomic analysis, benefit/cost analysis, input-output analysis, policy options regarding water levels in the Great Lakes, the scenario approach to assessing socio-economic sensitivities to climate change in the agri-food sector, and analysis of weather impacts. Several analytical tools are seen to be readily applicable to economic analyses of the effects of climate change, and issues of future water supply and demand are seen as central to climate impact assessment, and of particular concern to Canada

  8. How does youth cigarette use respond to weak economic periods? Implications for the current economic crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkes, Jeremy

    2012-03-01

    This paper examines whether youth cigarette use increases during weak economic periods (as do youth alcohol and drug use). The data come from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. With repeated measures over the 1997-2006 period, for almost 9,000 individuals, the samples include 30,000+ teenagers (15-19 years) and 30,000+ young adults (20-24 years). Logit models with state and year controls are estimated. The results indicate that teenagers and young adults increase cigarette use when the economy is weaker, implying that the current financial crisis has likely increased youth cigarette use relative to what it would have otherwise been.

  9. Global environmental change and small island states and territories : economic and labour market implications of climate change on the tourism sector of the Maltese Islands

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Andrew; Symposium on Global Environmental Change and Small Islands

    2014-01-01

    This presentation reviews threats to, and consequences of, current climate and environmental change on tourism destinations. The paper reviews recent published research on the impacts of climate and environmental change and consequences of such on the physical social and economic character of tourism operations using the Maltese Islands as a case. The validity and practicality of management options to tackle the complex nature and juxtaposition between tourism growth, climate and environment ...

  10. Economic Education in Korea: Current Status and Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Jinsoo; Jang, Kyungho

    2010-01-01

    The authors describe key aspects of precollege and undergraduate economic education in Korea. They show that precollege students seem to have low economics literacy due to problems with the curriculum and insufficient training of teachers. At the undergraduate level, they show that economics departments have more male students than female students…

  11. The Contribution of Soils to North America's Current and Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Thornton, P. E.; Lajtha, K.; Bailey, V. L.; Shrestha, G.; Jastrow, J. D.; Torn, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation will cover key aspects of the terrestrial soil carbon cycle in North America and the US for the upcoming State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCRII). SOCCRII seeks to summarize how natural processes and human interactions affect the global carbon cycle, how socio-economic trends affect greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and how ecosystems are influenced by and respond to greenhouse gas emissions, management decisions, and concomitant climate effects. Here, we will summarize the contemporary understanding of carbon stocks, fluxes, and drivers in the soil ecosystem compartment. We will highlight recent advances in modeling the magnitude of soil carbon stocks and fluxes, as well as the importance of remaining uncertainties in predicting soil carbon cycling and its relationship with climate. Attention will be given to the role of uncertainties in predicting future fluxes from soils, and how those uncertainties vary by region and ecosystem. We will also address how climate feedbacks and management decisions can enhance or minimize future climatic effects based on current understanding and observations, and will highlight select research needs to improve our understanding of the balance of carbon in soils in North America.

  12. Implementing the EU climate and energy package with the economic crisis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerebel, C.

    2009-01-01

    (+0.04%), followed from 2011 by a growth at a slower pace than was predicted before the crisis. The aim of our study is to analyze how the economic downturn in Europe will affect the EU's greenhouse gases emissions and its ability to reach the 20% emission reductions by 2020 compared to 1990. Using the knowledge available at the end of 2009 and drawing lessons from the past emissions trends in Europe from 1990, we will assess the progress towards the 20% reduction target over the period (from 1990 to 2020). A discourse often heard at this time of recession is that the EU climate policy is now out of place: because of the crisis the fight against climate change is said to be too costly and nothing should be required from European industries already coping with a worldwide slowing down of demand for goods and products and huge financial restrictions. Another similar discourse argues that, with the downturn in economic and industrial activities, GHG emissions will automatically decrease, so no effort is required to comply with the EU-wide targets. The economic slowdown will do the trick. Our analysis aims at putting these arguments into perspective. What does the economic downturn really change in EU's emissions future profile up to 2020? The EU Climate and Energy Package is composed of four legislative acts: A Directive amending the current EU-Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS); A Decision on GHG Reduction Effort Sharing; A Directive on Renewable Energies; A Directive on the Geological Storage of Carbon dioxide. The main elements of the package addressing climate change are the first two pieces of legislation mentioned above, that limit GHG emissions in the EU by 2020: the directive reviewing the EU-ETS for the period 2013-20 and the decision limiting emissions in the non-ETS sectors. One important difference between these two pieces of legislation is that the target for the ETS sector is community-wide, whilst for the non-ETS sectors separate national targets have been

  13. Effects of Climate on the Zooplankton of the California Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavaniegos, B. E.

    2007-05-01

    Almost six decades of sampling of the California Current system, carried out by the CalCOFI program (California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation) complemented by a decade of observations from the IMECOCAL program (Investigaciones Mexicanas de la Corriente de California), have revealed changing patterns in zooplankton abundances, species composition, and distributions over interannual through multidecadal time scales. Interannual changes associated with ENSO variability are manifested as strong but transitory perturbations in the mean annual cycle in seasonal abundances (and distributions) of particular species. An investigation of longer- term change, limited to the region off southern California, shows a persistent decline in zooplankton volumes (a proxy for overall biomass of macrozooplankton) between 1977 and 1998 that is considered to be a response to the well documented shift in basin-scale climate forcing that occurred in 1976-77. Further examination of this decline in zooplankton volumes indicates that it was due principally to the disappearance of several salp species after 1977. Other species and functional groups did not decline after the change in climate regime, while some species have followed persistent secular trends that appear to be associated more with the phenomenon of long-term global warming. Differences in the regional responses to climate change throughout the California Current system have also been observed recently in the spatial distribution of zooplankton biomass and changes in latitudinal ranges of certain species. For example, zooplankton biomass in the Baja California region show typical values for the 1997-98 El Niño that were followed by a decrease during the sharp transition to the cool La Niña conditions in 1999. This contrasts with the nearby region off southern California that was characterized by reduced biomass during the El Niño period and the subsequent recovery during the La Niña. Another regional contrast in

  14. Evaluation of economic impact of climatic change on agro-forestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Gallerani

    Full Text Available Climate change has a strong influence on agro-forestry systems. Present estimations evisage that changes in climate patterns and extreme events connected to climate change will have greater impacts in the future. This paper seeks to illustrate the articulation of the problems concerning the economic evaluation of climate change, with particularly attention to open problems and future lines of research. Research on this topic, though using methods and approaches consolidated in the disciplines of resource economics and evaluation, still have several open problems, particularly in the field of multidisciplinary studies of the man-environmental relations, policy evaluation and development of decision support systems for decision makers.

  15. Economic security of modern Russia: the current state and prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karanina Elena

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In the conditions of instability of the world economy and the introduction of sanctions against Russia by a number of countries, the problem of ensuring national economic security has become particularly relevant. This topic also has a high scientific, practical and social significance, as it allows to identify possible gaps in the economic security of modern Russia and timely develop mechanisms to eliminate them to protect the national interests of the state. The purpose of this article is to determine the state and prospects of improving the economic security of modern Russia. This can be achieved by solving the following tasks: review of existing methods to evaluate the economic security of country, conduct a SWOT analysis of economic security of modern Russia, the development of suggestions for its improvement. This research analyzes various aspects of the economic security of modern Russia. As a result, the author developed an integrated method to ensuring the economic security of the country, as well as a matrix of economic security within this method. The way of increase of economic security of modern Russia is offered. Thus, to overcome the threats for the economic security of modern Russia, it is necessary to implement the recommendations developed by the authors, including the establishment of their own production and the construction of an innovatively oriented model of the economy. This will ensure the economic security of modern Russia and its stable development in the future.

  16. The Current Status of the Economic Security of Poltava Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bondarevska Olha M.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The status of economic security of Poltava region in 2012–2016 was analyzed, the analysis was conducted using the developed methodology for assessing economic security of region, which is based on the joint use of indicative and functional methods. In order to assess the status of economic security of region, a system of indicators, divided by economic security components, has been formed using functional approach. The information-analytical provision of assessment has been formed using statistical information on the socio-economic development of the region. The influence of factors of destabilizing and destimulative nature on the status of economic security of the region has been researched. It has been concluded that the economic security of Poltava region is unsatisfactory, despite the existence of some positive tendencies, which at present are not sustainable.

  17. Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

    2012-12-01

    -adapted canola varieties can be justified, and the potential value of a California canola industry both now and in the future. Winter annual crops like canola use rainfall in a Mediterranean climate like California more efficiently than spring or summer crops. Our results suggest that under current production costs and seed prices, dry farmed canola will have good potential in certain areas of the California. Canola yields decline with annual winter precipitation, however economically viable yields are still achieved at relatively precipitation levels (200 mm). Results from simulation, combined with related economic modeling (reported elsewhere) suggest that canola will be viable in a variety of production systems in the northern Sacramento Valley and some coastal locations, even under drier future climate scenarios. The in-field evaluation of Australian canola varieties should contribute to maintain or improving resource use efficiency and farm profitability.

  18. Economic development and declining vulnerability to climate-related disasters in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jidong; Han, Guoyi; Zhou, Hongjian; Li, Ning

    2018-03-01

    Exposure and vulnerability are the main contributing factors of growing impact from climate-related disasters globally. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of vulnerability is important for designing effective disaster risk mitigation and adaptation measures. At national scale, most cross-country studies have suggested that economic vulnerability to disasters decreases as income increases, especially for developing countries. Research covering sub-national climate-related natural disasters is indispensable to obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the effect of regional economic growth on vulnerability reduction. Taking China as a case, this subnational scale study shows that economic development is correlated with the significant reduction in human fatalities but increase in direct economic losses (DELs) from climate-related disasters since 1949. The long-term trend in climate-related disaster vulnerability, reflected by mortality (1978-2015) and DELs (1990-2015) as a share of the total population and Gross Domestic Product, has seen significant decline among all economic regions in China. While notable differences remain among its West, Central and East economic regions, the temporal vulnerability change has been converging. The study further demonstrated that economic development level is correlated with human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters, and this vulnerability decreased with the increase of per-capita income. This study suggested that economic development can have nuanced effects on overall human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters. We argue that climate change science needs to acknowledge and examine the different pathways of vulnerability effects related to economic development.

  19. FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CURRENT FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VALENTIN SAVA

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Fiscal policies in the current era are the sovereign right of states to collect and administer taxes on national territory. In this respect, the European Union, which is an association of independent states, did not created an European tax - although many politicians proposing it - and within the Union is found important differences between the tax systems of member states. Due to historical and national different traditions, the EU member states have heterogeneous tax systems and revenue sharing systems because of different conceptions of public policies relative to the role of state in social and economic respective community’s life. The financing of public spending is usually considered the main function of taxation. In the original tradition following Locke1, property protection is the main functions of the state. As a result, the tax must correspond to the services rendered, that is to say, to pay the State for the protection of the rights it provides. Here we are at the origin of the doctrine of the benefit that there should be equivalence between the utility derived by the citizens of public services they consume and the "price" they pay tax.

  20. Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation.

  1. Upgrades, Current Capabilities and Near-Term Plans of the NASA ARC Mars Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, Melinda April; Haberle, Robert M.; Schaeffer, James R.

    2012-01-01

    We describe and review recent upgrades to the ARC Mars climate modeling framework, in particular, with regards to physical parameterizations (i.e., testing, implementation, modularization and documentation); the current climate modeling capabilities; selected research topics regarding current/past climates; and then, our near-term plans related to the NASA ARC Mars general circulation modeling (GCM) project.

  2. Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

    2009-01-01

    Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

  3. The water-energy-food-climate-economics nexus: solving hunger and resource scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2011-12-01

    A nexus refers to the core or to interconnectivity across issues. Addressing the boundary interactions of traditional sectors in an interconnected world as human activities change the physical boundaries of land and climate is an emerging academic and governance discourse. Through contrasting examples from the US and India, I shed light on the descriptive aspects of these connections and feedbacks that define potential impacts or traps for societies, and ponder whether a massive conceptual or numerical Earth System Model can help inform outcomes, or whether there are dominant links at particular scales (physical, social, economic or biological) that characterize the emergent dynamics and define critical equilibrium or transient solutions in certain places. However, the real question is what next given the definition of the nexus? Here, I argue that given the current valuation and management structure of different resource sectors and the associated information flows and sensitivities, the interlinked energy-climate issues can emerge as useful drivers of improved productivity in water-food systems, thus promoting resource and environmental sustainability while promoting economic development. Thus, levers can be found that help steer the course of these complex interacting systems towards desirable sectoral outcomes.

  4. Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

    2014-05-01

    The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use

  5. Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Africa | Igbokwe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examined the arguments for and against the climate change phenomenon and attempted to weigh in with presentation of available evidence. It finally drew from literature and reviewed possible impacts of climate change in Africa. It concluded by calling for a wakening and preparedness by African governments ...

  6. Key drivers and economic consequences of high-end climate scenarios: uncertainties and risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Drews, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of high-end climate scenarios and the risks of extreme events involve a number of critical assumptions and methodological challenges related to key uncertainties in climate scenarios and modelling, impact analysis, and economics. A methodological framework for integrated analysis...... of extreme events increase beyond scaling, and in combination with economic assumptions we find a very wide range of risk estimates for urban precipitation events. A sensitivity analysis addresses 32 combinations of climate scenarios, damage cost curve approaches, and economic assumptions, including risk...... aversion and equity represented by discount rates. Major impacts of alternative assumptions are investigated. As a result, this study demonstrates that in terms of decision making the actual expectations concerning future climate scenarios and the economic assumptions applied are very important...

  7. Biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation: What role can economic instruments play?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ring, I.; Drechsler, M.; Teeffelen, van A.J.A.; Irawan, S.; Venter, O.

    2010-01-01

    Tradable permits and intergovernmental fiscal transfers play an increasing role in both biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation. In comparison to regulatory and planning approaches these economic instruments offer a more flexible and cost-effective approach to biodiversity conservation.

  8. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

    KAUST Repository

    Wilson, S. K.; Adjeroud, M.; Bellwood, D. R.; Berumen, Michael L.; Booth, D.; Bozec, Y.-M.; Chabanet, P.; Cheal, A.; Cinner, J.; Depczynski, M.; Feary, D. A.; Gagliano, M.; Graham, N. A. J.; Halford, A. R.; Halpern, B. S.; Harborne, A. R.; Hoey, A. S.; Holbrook, S. J.; Jones, G. P.; Kulbiki, M.; Letourneur, Y.; De Loma, T. L.; McClanahan, T.; McCormick, M. I.; Meekan, M. G.; Mumby, P. J.; Munday, P. L.; Ohman, M. C.; Pratchett, M. S.; Riegl, B.; Sano, M.; Schmitt, R. J.; Syms, C.

    2010-01-01

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef

  9. Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

    2017-11-01

    A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

  10. Enhancement of human capital assets role in current economic situation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pechenaia Liudmila Timofeevna

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents transformation of the notion “human capital assets” in economics. Methodical approaches to evaluation of human capital assets and involvement in innovation process. Generalization of theoretical overview data allows conclusion about strong interest to this economic category, testifying to good promise of this field development.

  11. Adaptation of Agricultural and Food Systems to Climate Change: An Economic and Policy Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Antle; Susan M. Capalbo

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation of agricultural and food systems to climate change involves private and public investment decisions in the face of climate and policy uncertainties. The authors present a framework for analysis of adaptation as an investment, based on elements of the economics, finance, and ecological economics literatures. They use this framework to assess critically impact and adaptation studies, and discuss how research could be designed to support public and private investment decisions. They t...

  12. Communicating climate change – Learning from business: challenging values, changing economic thinking, innovating the low carbon economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Kaesehage

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The risks and opportunities presented by climate change for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs have been largely overlooked by previous research. The subsequent lack of knowledge in this field makes it difficult for SMEs to engage with climate change in a meaningful, profitable, and sustainable way. Further, current research cannot explain why SMEs rarely engage with climate change. We examine critically 30 SMEs, which engage with climate change knowledges and 5 Innovation-Support-Organizations (ISOs that communicate climate change knowledges. Over a three-year period we explore why and how these businesses approach the knowledge gap between climate change science and business practice, drawing on a variety of ethnographic research methods: (1 in-depth semi-structured and open interviews; (2 participant observations; and (3 practitioners’ workshops. The results demonstrate that business’ mitigation and adaptation strategies are lay-knowledge-dependent, derived from personal values, space, and place identity. To enhance the number of SMEs engaging with climate change, maximize the potential value of climate change for the econo- my and establish a low carbon economy, climate change communication needs to target personal values of business leaders. The message should highlight local impacts of climate change, the benefits of engagement to (the local society and economy, and possible financial benefits for the business. Climate change communication therefore needs to go beyond thinking about potential financial benefits and scientific evidence and challenge values, cultures, and beliefs to stimulate economic, political, and social frameworks that promote values-based decision-making.

  13. The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico: Implications for National/Regional Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, E.; Papyrakis, E.; Tol, R.S.J.; Gay-García, C.

    2013-01-01

    The recent Mexican government study, The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico (ECCM), which has largely influenced Mexico's stance on climate change issues and international negotiations, is critically reviewed. Whilst the importance of such government-supported national studies as a first attempt

  14. The Economics of Adaptation and Climate-Resilient Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... correct decisions are made because they require advanced decision-making techniques. ... is needed to understand factors that determine growth performance. ... IWRA/IDRC webinar on climate change and adaptive water management.

  15. 'Economic' and 'Political' cooperation in various climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamaide, Bertrand

    2003-01-01

    Cooperation in the economic sense considers efficiency issues. Cooperation in the political sense, like the Kyoto Protocol, considers other issues like equity and historical responsibility. The environmental and economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and other scenarios are thus examined. The US pullout may then be viewed, among others, as the result of not untying 'economic' and 'political' cooperation; and since the Protocol will be much less effective without the US, it is shown that an external economic stimulus should and may theoretically be found for retaining their participation

  16. Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heberger, M. G.; Cooley, H.; Moore, E.; Garzon, C.

    2011-12-01

    The western United States faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, and coastal flooding and erosion; changes are also likely to occur in air quality, water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors make different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes. For example, mortality rates from Hurricane Audrey, which struck the coast of Louisiana in 1957, were more than eight times higher among blacks than among whites. While disaster events may not discriminate, impacts on human populations are shaped by "intervening conditions" that determine the human impact of the flood and the specific needs for preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, we analyze the potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate model outputs, creating a variety of statistics and visualizations to communicate potential impacts to community groups and decision makers, after several meetings with these groups to ask, "What types of information are most useful to you for planning?" We relate climate impacts to social vulnerability - defined as the intersection of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a person or group of people - with a focus on the U.S. state of California. Understanding vulnerability factors and the populations that exhibit these factors are critical for crafting effective climate change policies and response strategies. It is also important to the emerging study of climate justice, which is the concept that no group of people should disproportionately bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of mitigation and adaptation.

  17. Assessing bio-economic impacts and climate adaptation potential in Flanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, A.

    2009-04-01

    . The interaction between these effects depends on the crop type. The impact on crop production was simulated with a dynamic vegetation model for eight crops (winter wheat, potatoes, sugar beet, fodder maize, grass, grain maize, cauliflower spring, cauliflower autumn), three soil types (loamy sand, loam, clay) and four climatic data series (historic and three cc-scenarios). The three climate change scenarios were selected on the basis of multi-criteria analysis of the PRUDENCE RCM runs. In total 3480 year simulations were executed with a daily modelling step. Pronounced yield losses mainly due to water shortages and heat stress occur for all climate change scenario's, to a lesser extent in the case of winter and spring crops. Yield losses of up to 30% are simulated for sugar beet, whereas winter wheat losses are only 6 % on loamy sand. High critical temperatures lead to heat stress, decreased fodder uptake, outbreaks of diseases and ultimately to animal production losses. Changes in animal production were calculated with a threshold model, whereby a daily maximum temperature of 30°C was taken as the production limit. Calculated animal production losses are up to 9 % for sheep, 8 % for cattle, 6 % for pigs and 3% for poultry. An economic prognosis of the technical productivity, the price effect, the required agricultural area and number of animals was used to estimate the potential productivity for 16 agricultural activities. The impact of climate change was included through aggregating the modelled production losses for Flanders and assuming the agricultural area, the number of animals and the prices constant to the economic prognosis. The total financial impacts are 0.1 % or 6.6 million euro for the first scenario, 1.5% or 71 million euro for the second scenario and 4.1% or 201 million euro for the third scenario. The results represent the acceptable cost of adaptation measures to maintain current efficiencies and production levels. Three gradations of adaptation were

  18. Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

  19. Socio-economic aspects of the greenhouse effect. Climate fund

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J.; Van der burg, T.; Jansen, H.M.A.; Verbruggen, H.

    1995-01-01

    The title project studies the impact of international capital transfers on the efficiency and efficacy of greenhouse gas emission reduction. The absolute costs of emission abatement is substantially lower in less developed countries. The associated reduction of the damage due to conventional air pollution is higher in the richer countries in both absolute and relative terms. The costs of climatic change are relatively higher (but absolute lower) in the developing countries. Prime impacts are on agriculture (in the developing world) and human health (highly valued in the developed world). Costs of emission reduction and climatic change are joined in a nine region, quasi-Ramsey, integrated climate-economy model, called FUND (Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution). The first calculations with this model show that the (hardly known) dynamics of climate change and the great uncertainties play a critical role, that free riding behaviour need not be as prominent a problem as is generally believed, and that international capital transfers do not seem to substantially influence the optimal emission control, as the regions most interested in climate change do not have much capital to transfer. Negotiated emission caps are likely to alter this conclusion. 3 figs., 1 tab., 16 refs

  20. Evaluating the relative impact of climate and economic changes on forest and agricultural ecosystem services in mountain regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert

    2013-11-15

    Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Scale interactions in economics: application to the evaluation of the economic damages of climatic change and of extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallegatte, S.

    2005-06-01

    Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)

  2. The economics of climate change impacts a la Stern. Novel and nuanced or rhetorically restricted?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spash, Clive L. [CSIRO, Sustainable Ecosystems Division, GPO Box 284, Canberra, ACT 2601 (Australia)

    2007-09-15

    The Stern report conducts an estimation of Greenhouse Gas control costs weighed against the benefits of avoiding damages at the global scale. As I show, Stern and colleagues are aware of the limits to CBA (cost benefit analysis), although they chose to ignore the considerable literature on the subject, the many contributions by ecological economists, and especially work specific to the enhanced Greenhouse Effect. Various problems are raised or mentioned in the report including: strong uncertainty, incommensurability, plural values, non-utilitarian ethics, rights, distributional inequity, poverty, and treatment of future generations. How then can this report, acknowledging so many of those aspects of climate change that render CBA an unsuitable tool for generating policy recommendations, go ahead to conduct a global CBA and make policy recommendations? I explain how issues are suppressed and sidelined in a careful and methodical manner, with the pretence they have been addressed by 'state of the art' solutions. Meanwhile, the authors maintain allegiance to an economic orthodoxy which perpetuates the dominant political myth that traditional economic growth can be both sustained and answer all our problems. Besides perpetuating myths, this diverts attention away from alternative approaches, away from ethical debates over harming the innocent, the poor and future generations, and away from the fundamental changes needed to tackle the very real and serious problems current economic systems pose for environmental systems. (author)

  3. The economics of climate change impacts a la Stern. Novel and nuanced or rhetorically restricted?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spash, Clive L.

    2007-01-01

    The Stern report conducts an estimation of Greenhouse Gas control costs weighed against the benefits of avoiding damages at the global scale. As I show, Stern and colleagues are aware of the limits to CBA (cost benefit analysis), although they chose to ignore the considerable literature on the subject, the many contributions by ecological economists, and especially work specific to the enhanced Greenhouse Effect. Various problems are raised or mentioned in the report including: strong uncertainty, incommensurability, plural values, non-utilitarian ethics, rights, distributional inequity, poverty, and treatment of future generations. How then can this report, acknowledging so many of those aspects of climate change that render CBA an unsuitable tool for generating policy recommendations, go ahead to conduct a global CBA and make policy recommendations? I explain how issues are suppressed and sidelined in a careful and methodical manner, with the pretence they have been addressed by 'state of the art' solutions. Meanwhile, the authors maintain allegiance to an economic orthodoxy which perpetuates the dominant political myth that traditional economic growth can be both sustained and answer all our problems. Besides perpetuating myths, this diverts attention away from alternative approaches, away from ethical debates over harming the innocent, the poor and future generations, and away from the fundamental changes needed to tackle the very real and serious problems current economic systems pose for environmental systems. (author)

  4. The puritan heritage and current economic attitudes in America

    OpenAIRE

    Elliott, Emory

    1987-01-01

    This essay sustains that the contemporary economic yearnings of American society are deeply rooted in seventeenth century Puritan Massachusetts — a cultural heritage which the people are unwilling and perhaps unable to abandon.The author identifies five of the most firmly-held assumptions as a beginning for the study of cultural values and economics in the United States today: 1. The assumption that America has a special, divinely ordained role as a world leader — exemplar of democratic ideal...

  5. EU climate policy impact in 2020. With a focus on the effectiveness of emissions trading policy in an economic recession scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graus, W.; Sreenivasamurthy, U.; Wesselink, B.

    2009-06-01

    PBL's Environmental Balance 2009 provides information on the current status and trends of environmental and climate policies. Ecofys contributes to the climate policy section of the report by developing the following three indicators: (1) ex-post and ex-ante policy impacts until 2020 at EU level (wedge diagram); (2) business-as-usual emissions of EU ETS sectors until 2020, revised for the current economic recession; (3) a latest literature review of EUA (EU emission allowances) price band expected until 2020. Based on the latter two analyses, a brief note on the impact of the current economic recession on the effectiveness of the EU emission trading scheme until 2020 is presented.An economic recession of two years or longer will considerably decrease the effectiveness of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in stimulating low-carbon technologies. In order to meet EU climate targets in the longer term, new governmental policies will be needed to compensate for this.

  6. Point Climat no. 29 'Managing France's energy transition while safeguarding economic competitiveness: be productive'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sartor, Oliver; Leguet, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Briefs' presents, in a few pages, hot topics in climate change policy. This issue addresses the following points: - Is the French energy transition compatible with economic growth and a 'competitive' French economy? Our answer is 'yes, with some conditions'. - The French economy is better positioned today for a meaningful energy transition than it has been for over 40 years. At the level of the macro-economy, a steady shift to higher energy prices is now much easier without hurting economic growth than it once was. - A small percentage of energy-intensive sectors may need targeted and temporary assistance with this transition

  7. Climate change and food security in Tanzania: analysis of current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A review of literature was conducted in order to identify knowledge gaps in climate change and food security research in Tanzania. The review focused on published literature covering the past 20 years addressing climate change effects on various components of the food security. The review of literature reveals, among ...

  8. Climate Change and Costs: Investigating Students' Reasoning on Nature and Economic Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sternang, Li; Lundholm, Cecilia

    2012-01-01

    The tensions between environmental protection and economic growth are critical to future well-being, and it is therefore important to understand how young people conceptualize these tensions. The aim of the present study is to explore students' solutions to the dilemma of economic development and mitigating climate change, with regard to societal…

  9. Climate change, water stress, conflict and migration : Taking stock of current insights through a vulnerability lens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, L.M.

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing awareness in international policy circles that climate change may be a driver of increased migration flows. In addition to political refugees and economic migrants, climate change-induced migration and environmental migrants are increasingly recognized as categories in human

  10. Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

  11. On the macro-economic impacts of climate change under informational failures

    OpenAIRE

    CAO, Ruixuan; Gohin, Alexandre

    2012-01-01

    Although the sources, extent and physical impacts of the future climate change are highly uncertain, available dynamic economic assessments implicitly assume that economic agents perfectly know them. Perfect foresight, rational expectations or active learning are standard assumptions underlying simulated results. To the contrary, this paper builds on the assumption that economic agents may suffer for a while from limited knowledge about the average and variability of physical impa...

  12. Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Bonifacio-Bautista, Martín; Barradas, Víctor L

    2016-03-01

    Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

  13. Implementing adaptation strategies by legal, economic and planning instruments on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albrecht, Eike; Missler-Behr, Magdalena; Schmidt, Michael; Spyra, Simon P.N. (eds.) [Brandenburg Univ. of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    The causes and effects of climate change are just as varied as the proposed solutions and approaches for dealing with the problem. Given the global character of climate change, comprehensive global cooperation is called for that leads to effective and appropriate international action in accordance with the respective responsibilities. These will inevitably differ depending on the capabilities and the social and economic situations of the respective actors. The contributions in this book present a variety of ideas, approaches and tools regarding the adaptation to climate change in specific countries and regions. In addition to examining (existing) legal instruments, they also focus on the implementation of economic instruments and planning tools, as well as their (further) development. Rather than simply discussing strategies to counteract climate change by reducing emissions, the authors also search for ways of actively adapting to climate change.

  14. Implementing adaptation strategies by legal, economic and planning instruments on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albrecht, Eike; Missler-Behr, Magdalena; Schmidt, Michael; Spyra, Simon P.N.

    2014-01-01

    The causes and effects of climate change are just as varied as the proposed solutions and approaches for dealing with the problem. Given the global character of climate change, comprehensive global cooperation is called for that leads to effective and appropriate international action in accordance with the respective responsibilities. These will inevitably differ depending on the capabilities and the social and economic situations of the respective actors. The contributions in this book present a variety of ideas, approaches and tools regarding the adaptation to climate change in specific countries and regions. In addition to examining (existing) legal instruments, they also focus on the implementation of economic instruments and planning tools, as well as their (further) development. Rather than simply discussing strategies to counteract climate change by reducing emissions, the authors also search for ways of actively adapting to climate change.

  15. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

    2015-01-01

    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  16. Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Li, Guodong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

  17. Dust Composition in Climate Models: Current Status and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez García-Pando, C.; Miller, R. L.; Perlwitz, J. P.; Kok, J. F.; Scanza, R.; Mahowald, N. M.

    2015-12-01

    Mineral dust created by wind erosion of soil particles is the dominant aerosol by mass in the atmosphere. It exerts significant effects on radiative fluxes, clouds, ocean biogeochemistry, and human health. Models that predict the lifecycle of mineral dust aerosols generally assume a globally uniform mineral composition. However, this simplification limits our understanding of the role of dust in the Earth system, since the effects of dust strongly depend on the particles' physical and chemical properties, which vary with their mineral composition. Hence, not only a detailed understanding of the processes determining the dust emission flux is needed, but also information about its size dependent mineral composition. Determining the mineral composition of dust aerosols is complicated. The largest uncertainty derives from the current atlases of soil mineral composition. These atlases provide global estimates of soil mineral fractions, but they are based upon massive extrapolation of a limited number of soil samples assuming that mineral composition is related to soil type. This disregards the potentially large variability of soil properties within each defined soil type. In addition, the analysis of these soil samples is based on wet sieving, a technique that breaks the aggregates found in the undisturbed parent soil. During wind erosion, these aggregates are subject to partial fragmentation, which generates differences on the size distribution and composition between the undisturbed parent soil and the emitted dust aerosols. We review recent progress on the representation of the mineral and chemical composition of dust in climate models. We discuss extensions of brittle fragmentation theory to prescribe the emitted size-resolved dust composition, and we identify key processes and uncertainties based upon model simulations and an unprecedented compilation of observations.

  18. Climate change, mobility, and women's economic empowerment in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-05-14

    May 14, 2018 ... Now researchers from LEAD Pakistan have identified several policy ... Despite Pakistan's economic growth rate of 4.7% over the past three years, the ... Women face discrimination in the workplace, harassment on the way to ...

  19. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-10-16

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.

  20. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-01-01

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy. PMID:23027963

  1. Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Food systems in Tanzania are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability due to poor adaptive capacity of ... available GCMs and downscaling techniques ... water for hydroelectric power generation ... for farm-level decision making.

  2. Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grémillet, David; Welcker, Jorg; Karnovsky, Nina J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate models predict a multi-degree warming of the North Atlantic in the 21st century. A research priority is to understand the impact of such changes upon marine organisms. With 40-80 million individuals, planktivorous little auks (Alle alle) are an essential component of pelagic food webs...... in this region that are potentially highly susceptible to climatic effects. Using an integrative study of their behaviour, physiology and fitness at three study sites, we evaluated the impact of ocean warming on little auks across the Greenland Sea in 2005-2007. Contrary to our hypothesis, the birds responded...... to a wide range of sea surface temperatures via plasticity of their foraging behaviour, allowing them to maintain their fitness levels unchanged. Predicted effects of climate change are significantly attenuated by such plasticity, confounding attempts to forecast future impacts of climate change by envelope...

  3. Implementing the EU climate and energy package with the economic crisis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerebel, C.

    2009-07-01

    flat GDP growth in 2010 (+0.04%), followed from 2011 by a growth at a slower pace than was predicted before the crisis. The aim of our study is to analyze how the economic downturn in Europe will affect the EU's greenhouse gases emissions and its ability to reach the 20% emission reductions by 2020 compared to 1990. Using the knowledge available at the end of 2009 and drawing lessons from the past emissions trends in Europe from 1990, we will assess the progress towards the 20% reduction target over the period (from 1990 to 2020). A discourse often heard at this time of recession is that the EU climate policy is now out of place: because of the crisis the fight against climate change is said to be too costly and nothing should be required from European industries already coping with a worldwide slowing down of demand for goods and products and huge financial restrictions. Another similar discourse argues that, with the downturn in economic and industrial activities, GHG emissions will automatically decrease, so no effort is required to comply with the EU-wide targets. The economic slowdown will do the trick. Our analysis aims at putting these arguments into perspective. What does the economic downturn really change in EU's emissions future profile up to 2020? The EU Climate and Energy Package is composed of four legislative acts: A Directive amending the current EU-Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS); A Decision on GHG Reduction Effort Sharing; A Directive on Renewable Energies; A Directive on the Geological Storage of Carbon dioxide. The main elements of the package addressing climate change are the first two pieces of legislation mentioned above, that limit GHG emissions in the EU by 2020: the directive reviewing the EU-ETS for the period 2013-20 and the decision limiting emissions in the non-ETS sectors. One important difference between these two pieces of legislation is that the target for the ETS sector is community-wide, whilst for the non-ETS sectors

  4. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference: The Current Situation and the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broughton, Emma

    2010-01-01

    The Copenhagen climate change conference has failed to meet expectations but has also led to a shift in the structure of multilateral negotiations on climate change. States have reclaimed negotiations, while the UN-centred structure has been weakened. Relations between developed and emerging countries have shifted, with the latter influence growing. There has also been an increased participation of civil-society actors (NGOs) in the debate. A new negotiation structure is emerging but it faces the difficult challenge of avoiding fragmentation

  5. Energy exporters and climate change. Potential economic impacts of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wit, R.C.N.

    1997-06-01

    This review paper has been written on a commission by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in London and is part of a project to investigate the possible impact of greenhouse gas mitigation policies on energy markets and therefore on countries exporting oil, gas and coal. The aim of the project conducted by RIIA is to achieve a better understanding of the role of energy exporters in international climate change negotiations on the road towards the second Conference of Parties in Kyoto at the end of 1997 and the underlying national strategies. All four 'economy'-oriented global model studies reviewed in this paper indicate that CO2-reduction policies would cause wide differences in welfare effects across regions. It appears that energy-exporting countries would suffer the greatest welfare losses. Although several policy instruments can be implemented to achieve CO2-emission reductions, only carbon taxes are considered in the models. The model results show that if world level CO2 emissions are approximately stabilized at their 1990 levels, the cumulative losses in GDP of energy exporters generally range between 3% and 12% by 2010. It should be strongly emphasized that the sign and magnitude of the economic impact of CO2 policy on energy exporters depend critically on how the policy instrument is designed. In the case of a carbon tax the following factors are crucial: (1) the choice between a consumption and a production tax, (2) whether it is based on a global or unilateral agreement, (3) the mode of revenue redistribution among countries and (4) whether emission trading is allowed. 27 refs

  6. 'Intensity' targets. Pathway or roadblock to preventing climate change while enhancing economic growth?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dudek, D.; Golub, A.

    2003-12-01

    After establishing the operative definitions of greenhouse gas emissions 'intensity' targets and 'absolute' targets for greenhouse gas emissions limits, we identify examples of these approaches in current laws and policies. We focus in particular on the US experience with the sulfur dioxide emissions 'cap and trade' program as an example of the use of an 'absolute' target approach. We compare and contrast this example with 'performance standard' programs under the US Clean Air Act and the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for motor vehicles, which embody the emissions rate or 'intensity' concept. These case studies give us insights into the pros and cons of the intensity versus absolute approaches. Moving from retrospective to prospective, we consider the possible application of alternative absolute and intensity targets (IT) to global, national and firm-level emissions. We then identify criteria for evaluating the use of 'intensity' targets as a tool for achieving both environmental and economic goals. These include success in limiting climate change, achieving cost certainty and manageability, providing flexibility for public and private sector decision-makers in responding to new information, stimulating technological progress and sustaining a global climate regime

  7. Terminology of economics in Albanian: Current state, problems and tasks

    OpenAIRE

    Mulaj, Isa

    2012-01-01

    The primary aim of this paper was to analyze the state of terminology of economics in Albanian language, and depending on the problems identified, to address some recommendations as tasks that are deemed necessary for future research that would contribute to its standardization. The paper begun from the hypothesis that the terminology in question is relatively rich, but finds that academic and scientific research are very limited or largely neglected, thus creating a vacuum in its broader and...

  8. Economic and welfare impacts of climate change on developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winters, P.; Murgai, R.; Sadoulet, E.; De Janvry, A.; Frisvold, G.

    1998-01-01

    The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia. 46 refs

  9. Making a Success of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference. Opinion of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mesquida, Celine; Guirkinger, Bernard

    2015-04-01

    In November 2011, the ESEC voted on an opinion entitled 'International Climate Negotiations and the Durban Conference'. The holding in France, at the end of this year, of the 21. Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention (COP 21) provides an opportunity for the ESEC to issue a follow-up opinion. All of the scientific data points to the same alarming finding: global warming is being exacerbated due to the effects of an unprecedented increase in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Worldwide, the signs of climate disruption are already more than apparent and will continue to intensify if nothing is done about them, as was highlighted by the IPCC. The outlook for the future is therefore disturbing to say the least, as the lives of current and future generations are at stake if we fail to challenge current modes of production and consumption that are incompatible with limited resources and the fair distribution of wealth. At the same time, the successive major international climate change conferences have struggled to progress towards an international climate regulatory framework. These conferences are not about the climate alone, but take place at the confluence of contradictory geostrategic, political and economic interests. Within this context, the goal of concluding a global, fair and ambitious agreement in Paris is a challenge that must be risen to. (authors)

  10. Techno-economic analysis and climate change impacts of sugarcane biorefineries considering different time horizons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junqueira, Tassia L; Chagas, Mateus F; Gouveia, Vera L R; Rezende, Mylene C A F; Watanabe, Marcos D B; Jesus, Charles D F; Cavalett, Otavio; Milanez, Artur Y; Bonomi, Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Ethanol production from lignocellulosic feedstocks (also known as 2nd generation or 2G ethanol process) presents a great potential for reducing both ethanol production costs and climate change impacts since agricultural residues and dedicated energy crops are used as feedstock. This study aimed at the quantification of the economic and environmental impacts considering the current and future scenarios of sugarcane biorefineries taking into account not only the improvements of the industrial process but also of biomass production systems. Technology assumptions and scenarios setup were supported by main companies and stakeholders, involved in the lignocellulosic ethanol production chain from Brazil and abroad. For instance, scenarios considered higher efficiencies and lower residence times for pretreatment, enzymatic hydrolysis, and fermentation (including pentoses fermentation); higher sugarcane yields; and introduction of energy cane (a high fiber variety of cane). Ethanol production costs were estimated for different time horizons. In the short term, 2G ethanol presents higher costs compared to 1st generation (1G) ethanol. However, in the long term, 2G ethanol is more competitive, presenting remarkable lower production cost than 1G ethanol, even considering some uncertainties regarding technology and market aspects. In addition, environmental assessment showed that both 1G (in the medium and long term) and 2G ethanol can reduce climate change impacts by more than 80% when compared to gasoline. This work showed the great potential of 2G ethanol production in terms of economic and environmental aspects. These results can support new research programs and public policies designed to stimulate both production and consumption of 2G ethanol in Brazil, accelerating the path along the learning curve. Some examples of mechanisms include: incentives to the establishment of local equipment and enzyme suppliers; and specific funding programs for the development and use of

  11. Climate policies in China, India and Brazil: current issues and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellevrat, Elie

    2012-07-01

    Emerging countries will have to tackle different social and economic development challenges in the future, which translate nationally into the concepts of 'harmonious society' in China and 'inclusive growth' in India, and into the Brazilian slogan 'a wealthy country is a country without poverty'. Per capita (current US$), Brazil is more than two times richer than China, which in turn is three times richer than India. This graduation explains the variety of priorities of those countries: reducing inequalities and achieving the development processes in China and Brazil, alleviating poverty and enhancing energy access in India. Furthermore, these countries are increasingly linked internationally, along with the globalization process. Energy security is a key issue for China and India, while Brazil aims at playing a key role on future international energy markets. Emerging economies are progressively laying the foundations for low-carbon development strategies that will depend on their national contexts and priorities. Investments in building and transport infrastructures are increasingly important in all those countries, creating the conditions today for tomorrow's low-carbon economic development. China recently made important resolutions in the framework of its 12. Five-Year Plan, decoupling economic growth from GHG emissions. India has developed eight 'National Missions' on climate change and is now exploring future low-carbon strategies. And Brazil is affirming its position internationally, pushing for innovative 'green growth' concepts, within the framework of the Rio+20 Conference. All countries have already implemented several energy and climate policies and plan to develop them further, through innovative policy institutions and instruments. They are switching progressively from command- and-control to economic instruments. In particular, market-based mechanisms are increasingly used in all countries: mandatory pilot Emission Trading Systems (ETS) in China

  12. Economic essays on privacy, big data, and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dengler, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    This doctoral thesis aims to advance our understanding of major topics of concern in the 21st century using theoretical as well as empirical economic methodologies. All three topics do and will continue to affect people’s lives as they can substantially shape the functioning of our societies.

  13. A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

    2007-03-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  14. A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community.This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore,the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China,and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  15. Current State of Climate Education in the United States: Are Graduate Students being Adequately Prepared to Address Climate Issues?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuster, E.; Fox, G.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is happening; scientists have already observed changes in sea level, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, and declining polar ice. The students of today are the leaders of tomorrow, and it is our duty to make sure they are well equipped and they understand the implications of climate change as part of their research and professional careers. Graduate students, in particular, are gaining valuable and necessary research, leadership, and critical thinking skills, but we need to ensure that they are receiving the appropriate climate education in their graduate training. Previous studies have primarily focused on capturing the K-12, college level, and general publics' knowledge of the climate system, concluding with recommendations on how to improve climate literacy in the classroom. While this is extremely important to study, very few studies have captured the current perception that graduate students hold regarding the amount of climate education being offered to them. This information is important to capture, as it can inform future curriculum development. We developed and distributed a nationwide survey (495 respondents) for graduate students to capture their perception on the level of climate system education being offered and their view on the importance of having climate education. We also investigated differences in the responses based on either geographic area or discipline. We compared how important graduate students felt it was to include climate education in their own discipline versus outside disciplines. The authors will discuss key findings from this ongoing research.

  16. Relationship of suicide rates with climate and economic variables in Europe during 2000-2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Chatzikosta, Isaia; Pastiadis, Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It is well known that suicidal rates vary considerably among European countries and the reasons for this are unknown, although several theories have been proposed. The effect of economic variables has been extensively studied but not that of climate. METHODS: Data from 29 European...... countries covering the years 2000-2012 and concerning male and female standardized suicidal rates (according to WHO), economic variables (according World Bank) and climate variables were gathered. The statistical analysis included cluster and principal component analysis and categorical regression. RESULTS......: The derived models explained 62.4 % of the variability of male suicidal rates. Economic variables alone explained 26.9 % and climate variables 37.6 %. For females, the respective figures were 41.7, 11.5 and 28.1 %. Male suicides correlated with high unemployment rate in the frame of high growth rate and high...

  17. Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Q; Halsnæs, K; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation framework is used to give detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimation of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis. The results are aimed at providing important information for decision making on how best to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities.

  18. PERSPECTIVES OF INFLATION TARGETING, IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CONTEXT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    COROIU SORINA IOANA

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In the context of economic crisis, monetary policy makers are facing a number of challenges, including the selection and implementation of the best monetary policy. In this paper, we want to see if inflation targeting is or is not a solution to exit the economic crisis. If the answer is positive, then what would be the optimal level of inflation? Many central banks target an inflation rate of 2%. In this paper we intend to show that, in certain circumstances, a very low level of inflation can significantly reduce the stabilizing effects of monetary policy. A slightly higher value of inflation targeting would reduce the constraints on monetary policy, caused by the appearance of liquidity trap. The risk for the interest rates of monetary policy to achieve zero level is related to the central banks’ choise of the appropriate inflation target. We believe that an increase in the inflation target of 2% to 4% would ease monetary policy constraints arising from the liquidity trap problem. If inflation targeting is not a solution to exit the crisis, then are there other strategies that would be a better alternative? Following this analysis, no obvious alternatives were identified, so far, there is no clear reason for that to abandon inflation targeting.

  19. About a good practice of economic analysis for climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hourcade, Jean-Charles

    2006-01-01

    The author attempts to show how economy can be a help in clarifying the debate about climate change and its consequences. He aims at describing the ultimate consequences of various postures, and at preventing tensions related to misunderstandings. He first sheds a light on the politics of the Kyoto protocol, and then addresses the issue of the relationship between environment and development while assuming there is a political agreement for action. In a next part, he discusses the reasons for action, and the comparison of costs and benefits of action and of inaction

  20. Seasonal forecasts: communicating current climate variability in southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available seasonal time scale. Seasonal climate forecasts are defined as probabilistic predictions of how much rain is expected during the season and how warm or cool it will be, based primarily on the principle that the ocean (sea-surface temperatures) influences...

  1. The economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chuen Khee, Pek; Yet Mee, Lim; Chee Keong, Choong

    2011-01-01

    This study estimates the economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia. The contingent valuation technique is employed on 456 randomly selected households in the vicinities of Selangor Darul Ehsan. The study finds that climate change mitigation programmes to ensure food security are important. The public is willing to pay extra rice price in substitution of a rice subsidy reduction impact for the mitigation programmes. More specifically, the study ascertains that households o...

  2. Editor's Choice The Role of Economic Policy in Climate Change Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Kai A. Konrad; Marcel Thum

    2014-01-01

    This article assesses the role of the public sector in adaptation to climate change. We first offer a definition and categorization of climate change adaptation. We then consider the primary economic principles that can guide the assignment of adaptation tasks to either the private or the public sector, as well as those guiding assignment within the public sector itself. We find that the role of the state in adaptation policy is limited. We identify information policy, the provision of a suit...

  3. Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Li, Guodong; Winterhalder, Bruce; Lee, Harry F

    2015-07-01

    We investigated the mechanism of epidemics with the impacts of climate change and socio-economic fluctuations in the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China (AD 1368-1901). Using long-term and high-quality datasets, this study is the first quantitative research that verifies the 'climate change → economy → epidemics' mechanism in historical China by statistical methods that include correlation analysis, Granger causality analysis, ARX, and Poisson-ARX modeling. The analysis provides the evidences that climate change could only fundamentally lead to the epidemics spread and occurrence, but the depressed economic well-being is the direct trigger of epidemics spread and occurrence at the national and long term scale in historical China. Moreover, statistical modeling shows that economic well-being is more important than population pressure in the mechanism of epidemics. However, population pressure remains a key element in determining the social vulnerability of the epidemics occurrence under climate change. Notably, the findings not only support adaptation theories but also enhance our confidence to address climatic shocks if economic buffering capacity can be promoted steadily. The findings can be a basis for scientists and policymakers in addressing global and regional environmental changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Climatic projections and socio economic impacts of the climatic change in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslava R, Jesus Antonio; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2001-01-01

    For the task of working out climate change projections, different methodologies have been in use, from simple extrapolations to sophisticated statistical and mathematical tools. Today, the tools most used are the models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, which include many processes of other climate components (biosphere, cryosphere, continental surface models, etc.). Different global and regional scenarios have been generated with those models. They may be of great utility in calculating projections and future scenarios for Colombia, but the representation of the country's climate in those models has to be improved in order to get projections with a higher level of certainty. The application of climate models and of the techniques of down scaling in studies of climate change is new both in Colombia and tropical America, and was introduced through the National University of Colombia's project on local and national climate change. In the first phase of the project, version 3 of the CCM (Climate Community Model) of NCAR was implemented. Parallel to that, and based on national (grid) data, maps have been prepared of the monthly temperature and precipitation of Colombia, which were used to validate the model

  5. Economic Assessment of Flood Control Facilities under Climate Uncertainty: A Case of Nakdong River, South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyeongseok Kim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change contributes to enhanced flood damage that has been increasing for the last several decades. Understanding climate uncertainties improves adaptation strategies used for investment in flood control facilities. This paper proposes an investment decision framework for one flood zone to cope with future severe climate impacts. This framework can help policy-makers investigate the cost of future damage and conduct an economic assessment using real options under future climate change scenarios. The proposed methodology provides local municipalities with an adaptation strategy for flood control facilities in a flood zone. Using the proposed framework, the flood prevention facilities in the Nakdong River Basin of South Korea was selected as a case study site to analyze the economic assessment of the investments for flood control facilities. Using representative concentration pathway (RCP climate scenarios, the cost of future flood damage to 23 local municipalities was calculated, and investment strategies for adaptation were analyzed. The project option value was determined by executing an option to invest in an expansion that would adapt to floods under climate change. The results of the case study showed that the proposed flood facilities are economically feasible under both scenarios used. The framework is anticipated to present guidance for establishing investment strategies for flood control facilities of a flood zone in multiple municipalities’ settings.

  6. Flexicurity in the Current Economic and Social Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Modiga

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The flexicurity concept - an abbreviation between flexibility and security - appeared in the early 90s, being used for the first time by the Danish Prime Minister Poul Nyrum Rasmussen. The concept refers to a social state model that promotes a pro-active policy in the labour domain and the access to employment. Flexicurity can be defined as a strategy integrated by the simultaneous consolidation of flexibility and security on the labour market. According to the definition given by the European Commission, which establishes the guidelines and “paths” typical for the Member States in order to develop their own strategies in the field, flexicurity is an integrated strategy of simultaneous strengthening of flexibility and security on labour market. This concept arose as a result of socio-economic changes registered in the last decades in Europe: globalization and European integration, development of new technologies, the demographic aging of European society, the segmented development of labour markets.

  7. Small modular reactors: current status, economic aspects and licensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimbron E, E.; Puente E, F.

    2014-10-01

    Interest for nuclear energy had resurgence since the beginning of the new century. This was a consequence of the new world conditions and needs: increasing energy demands (mainly from developing countries), awareness of the importance of energetic security and the necessity of limiting carbon emissions. In this nuclear boom, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) develop and start to consolidate as a viable option for the present energy market. Their modular characteristics, lower initial capital cost, passive safety features and their niche applications, situate them as a technology with various advantages. The following study will present and analysis that will help to comprehend the SMRs present status. Information will show planned reactors, reactors in construction and in operation, advantages and challenges of their implementation, relevant economic aspects and important licensing factors that need to be highlighted. The analysis showed that the SMR technology is still in an initial stage that could reach and important development point in the next ten years. In this period, many of the reactors that are in design stage or that are through their licensing process might be constructed and could be getting ready for a commercial status. On the other hand, it has been observed that there are two main economic factors that need to be considered for any SMRs implementation project. First, the costs (initial, operation, maintenance, fuel and decommissioning) and second their possible niche market applications. Additionally, it has been noted that the licensing process is one of the greatest challenges for SMR general development. Licensing is mainly related to topic such as Emergency Planning Zone, first-of-a-kind engineering, passive safety features, proliferation resistance, multiple module designs and staffing. Previous information will serve as a base for carrying out a feasibility assessment analysis for SMR in Mexico. This part will be the last section of the project

  8. Small modular reactors: current status, economic aspects and licensing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zimbron E, E. [Instituto Tecnologico de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey, Campus Santa Fe, Av. Carlos Lazo No. 100, Santa Fe, 01389 Mexico D. F. (Mexico); Puente E, F., E-mail: erick.zimbron@gmail.com [ININ, Direccion de Investigacion Cientifica, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2014-10-15

    Interest for nuclear energy had resurgence since the beginning of the new century. This was a consequence of the new world conditions and needs: increasing energy demands (mainly from developing countries), awareness of the importance of energetic security and the necessity of limiting carbon emissions. In this nuclear boom, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) develop and start to consolidate as a viable option for the present energy market. Their modular characteristics, lower initial capital cost, passive safety features and their niche applications, situate them as a technology with various advantages. The following study will present and analysis that will help to comprehend the SMRs present status. Information will show planned reactors, reactors in construction and in operation, advantages and challenges of their implementation, relevant economic aspects and important licensing factors that need to be highlighted. The analysis showed that the SMR technology is still in an initial stage that could reach and important development point in the next ten years. In this period, many of the reactors that are in design stage or that are through their licensing process might be constructed and could be getting ready for a commercial status. On the other hand, it has been observed that there are two main economic factors that need to be considered for any SMRs implementation project. First, the costs (initial, operation, maintenance, fuel and decommissioning) and second their possible niche market applications. Additionally, it has been noted that the licensing process is one of the greatest challenges for SMR general development. Licensing is mainly related to topic such as Emergency Planning Zone, first-of-a-kind engineering, passive safety features, proliferation resistance, multiple module designs and staffing. Previous information will serve as a base for carrying out a feasibility assessment analysis for SMR in Mexico. This part will be the last section of the project

  9. Current Economic Issues in Employee Benefits. Background Paper No. 39.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodbury, Stephen A.

    A multitude of public policy issues currently surround the tax treatment of employee benefits, particularly since the tax-favored status of employer contributions to pensions and health insurance has been blamed for a shrinking tax base that has exacerbated the federal budget deficit, an inefficient and bloated health-care sector, overinsurance by…

  10. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  11. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  12. Climate change : expert opinion on the economics of policy options to address climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    Panelists identified key strengths and limitations of alternative policy approaches that should be of assistance to the Congress in weighing the potential benefits and costs of different policies for addressing climate change. Many panelists said tha...

  13. Using climate model simulations to assess the current climate risk to maize production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Chris; Pope, Edward; Thompson, Vikki; Lewis, Kirsty; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between the climate and agricultural production is of considerable importance to global food security. However, there has been relatively little exploration of climate-variability related yield shocks. The short observational yield record does not adequately sample natural inter-annual variability thereby limiting the accuracy of probability assessments. Focusing on the United States and China, we present an innovative use of initialised ensemble climate simulations and a new agro-climatic indicator, to calculate the risk of severe water stress. Combined, these regions provide 60% of the world’s maize, and therefore, are crucial to global food security. To probe a greater range of inter-annual variability, the indicator is applied to 1400 simulations of the present day climate. The probability of severe water stress in the major maize producing regions is quantified, and in many regions an increased risk is found compared to calculations from observed historical data. Analysis suggests that the present day climate is also capable of producing unprecedented severe water stress conditions. Therefore, adaptation plans and policies based solely on observed events from the recent past may considerably under-estimate the true risk of climate-related maize shocks. The probability of a major impact event occurring simultaneously across both regions—a multi-breadbasket failure—is estimated to be up to 6% per decade and arises from a physically plausible climate state. This novel approach highlights the significance of climate impacts on crop production shocks and provides a platform for considerably improving food security assessments, in the present day or under a changing climate, as well as development of new risk based climate services.

  14. Economic impacts of EU climate policy until 2020; EU:n ilmastopolitiikan talousvaikutukset vuoteen 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rantala, O. E-mail: olavi.rantala@etla.fi

    2012-07-01

    The study evaluates the impacts of EU climate policy on the emission allowance price, electricity prices, the competitiveness of industry and macroeconomic developments in the third EU emission trading period 2013-2020. The economic impacts of climate policy on Finland are compared to the impacts on the entire EU area. It turns out that due to its cold climate and heating energy demand, higher export intensity of the economy and higher energy intensity of the industry Finland pays a higher price for EU climate policy in terms of output and employment losses than the EU on average. The study examines the macroeconomic effects of climate policy also in the more distant future, assuming that climate policy is tightened further in the 2020s. Climate policy implemented by emission trading means that the long-term economic growth in the EU area depends essentially on emission-free electricity production, and no longer on other growth factors, such as the labour supply and productivity growth. (orig.)

  15. Economic Value of Narrowing the Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity: Decadal Change in Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Low Cloud Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R. M.; Golub, A. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Young, D. F.; Baize, R. R.

    2016-12-01

    Several previous studies have been published on the economic value of narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (Cooke et al. 2015, Cooke et al. 2016, Hope, 2015). All three of these studies estimated roughly 10 Trillion U.S. dollars for the Net Present Value and Real Option Value at a discount rate of 3%. This discount rate is the nominal discount rate used in the U.S. Social Cost of Carbon Memo (2010). The Cooke et al studies approached this problem by examining advances in accuracy of global temperature measurements, while the Hope 2015 study did not address the type of observations required. While temperature change is related to climate sensitivity, large uncertainties of a factor of 3 in current anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) would need to be solved for advanced decadal temperature change observations to assist the challenge of narrowing climate sensitivity. The present study takes a new approach by extending the Cooke et al. 2015,2016 papers to replace observations of temperature change to observations of decadal change in the effects of changing clouds on the Earths radiative energy balance, a measurement known as Cloud Radiative Forcing, or Cloud Radiative Effect. Decadal change in this observation is direclty related to the largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity which is cloud feedback from changing amount of low clouds, primarily low clouds over the world's oceans. As a result, decadal changes in shortwave cloud radiative forcing are more directly related to cloud feedback uncertainty which is the dominant uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This paper will show results for the new approach, and allow an examination of the sensitivity of economic value results to different observations used as a constraint on uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The analysis suggests roughly a doubling of economic value to 20 Trillion Net Present Value or Real Option Value at 3% discount rate. The higher economic value results from two changes: a

  16. Evaluating the Air Quality, Climate and Economic Impacts of ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anaerobic digestion is a natural biological process in which microorganisms break down organic materials in the absence of oxygen. When anaerobic microbes metabolize organic waste – i.e., the carbon-based remains of plants, animals and their waste products, e.g. animal manure, sewage sludge and food waste – they produce biogas. Biogas consists mainly of methane and carbon dioxide and can be used as a renewable energy fuel in a variety of applications. The impacts of biogas generation and utilization processes differ, depending on the source material (e.g., sewage, manure, food processing waste, municipal solid waste) and end uses (e.g., on-site electricity generation, conversion to a vehicle fuel, injection into the natural gas pipeline, etc.). Organic waste managers and regulators alike lack sufficient information about the overall environmental and economic performance of available biogas management technologies. A more complete understanding of the environmental and economic performance of biogas-to-energy technologies will assist state and local governments, regulators, and potential project developers in identifying geographically appropriate and cost-effective biogas management options.The backdrop for this research was California. The state has unique air quality challenges due to the combination of meteorology and topography, population growth and the pollution burden associated with mobile sources. However, with the strengthening of National Ambient

  17. Understanding of Grassland Ecosystems under Climate Change and Economic Development Pressures in the Mongolia Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, J.; Chen, J.; Shan, P.; Pan, X.; Wei, Y.; Wang, M.; Xin, X.

    2011-12-01

    The land use and land cover change, especially in the form of grassland degradation, in the Mongolian Plateau, exhibited a unique spatio-temporal pattern that is a characteristic of a mixed stress from economic development and climate change of the region. The social dimension of the region played a key role in shaping the landscape and land use change, including the cultural clashes with economic development, conflicts between indigenous people and business ventures, and exogenous international influences. Various research projects have been conducted in the region to focus on physical degradation of grasslands and/or on economic development but there is a lack of understanding how the social and economic dimensions interact with grassland ecosystems and changes. In this talk, a synthesis report was made based on the most recent workshop held in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, of China, that specifically focused on climate change and grassland ecosystems. The report analyzed the degree of grassland degradation, its climate and social drivers, and coupling nature of economic development and conservation of traditional grassland values. The goal is to fully understand the socio-ecological-economic interactions that together shape the trajectory of the grassland ecosystems in the Mongolia Plateau.

  18. Energy-Climate Scenarios: An Adjustment after the Economic Crisis, Fukushima, Durban and... Shale Gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana; Peytral, Pierre-Olivier; Simon, Jean-Christophe

    2012-01-01

    In an article published in these pages in 2011 (no. 373), Patrick Criqui presented a series of scenarios on possible energy and climate trends, taking note of the agreement on climate change signed in late 2009 at the Copenhagen Conference. He pointed out that a paradigm shift was on the cards, which would mean less use of the top-down approach - with national objectives set as a function of international objectives formulated at major conferences - and greater implementation of a bottom-up logic based on national policies put in place in the energy field and as part of the battle against global warming. On the basis of this latter logic, the authors were able to elaborate scenarios at a world level. A few days before the publication of that article, the Fukushima accident occurred in japan, lending fresh impetus to the energy debate in most of the countries using nuclear power. Does that event, combined with the persistence of the debt crisis, the increased extraction of unconventional hydrocarbons (shale oil and gas ) and the fact that international negotiations on climate change (Durban) have merely marked time, modify the projected scenarios -and, if so, to what extent ? Patrick Criqui, Silvana Mima, Pierre-Olivier Peytral and jean-Christophe Simon consider this question in detail here. They begin by examining the impact of these recent events and developments on the current energy and climate situation. Then, after reminding us of the four world energy scenarios (to a time-horizon of 2030-2050) that were developed in 2009 (together with two 'discontinuity scenarios'), they propose an updating that takes account of the perceived consequences of the change of context, stressing two crucial scenarios in particular: the probable (leading to warming in the order of 4 deg. C) and the desirable (limiting warming to 2 deg. C). Lastly, they propose various levers aimed at 'making the desirable trajectory possible' (technological agreements, economic instruments

  19. Global climate change: a synopsis of current activities in the Office of Fossil Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    South, D.W.; Kane, R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on the US DOE Office of Fossil Energy investigation and monitoring of several aspects of global climate change as it relates to fossil fuels. The paper consists of the overheads from the presentation. The topics of this paper include greenhouse gases from fossil fuels, scientific uncertainties, legislation and protocols, mitigation strategies and policies, energy and economic impacts, and the role of clean coal technologies and fossil fuels in global climate change

  20. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  1. Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Williams, Jimmy R.

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to

  2. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs

  3. 100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vad Mathiesen, Brian; Lund, Henrik; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2011-01-01

    that implementing energy savings, renewable energy and more efficient conversion technologies can have positive socio-economic effects, create employment and potentially lead to large earnings on exports. If externalities such as health effects are included, even more benefits can be expected. 100% Renewable energy......Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are generally considered costly with world leaders often engaging in debate concerning the costs of mitigation and the distribution of these costs between different countries. In this paper, the analyses and results of the design of a 100% renewable energy...... system by the year 2050 are presented for a complete energy system including transport. Two short-term transition target years in the process towards this goal are analysed for 2015 and 2030. The energy systems are analysed and designed with hour-by-hour energy system analyses. The analyses reveal...

  4. Rural migration in Bolivia: the impact of climate change, economic crisis and state policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariscal, Carlos Balderrama; Tassi, Nico; Miranda, Ana Rubena; Canedo, Lucia Aramayo; Cazorla, Ivan

    2011-04-15

    This case study analyses current migration dynamics in two regions of Bolivia: Northern Potosi, one of the main areas of outmigration in Bolivia, and the municipality of San Julian in the Department of Santa Cruz, a major destination for internal migrants, some of whom come from Northern Potosi. The research was qualitative in nature, with specific attention to breadth and accuracy in the information and analysis. The methods used were participative and the research was done in collaboration with the rural and indigenous organisations in the two selected areas: the Federation of Indigenous Ayllus of Northern Potosi (Federacion de Ayllus Originarios Indigenas del Norte de Potosi Charka Qhara Qhara - FAOI-NP) and the Federation of Intercultural Communities of San Julian (Federacion de Comunidades Interculturales de San Julian). The information gathering process examined a wide range of factors that may trigger migration, including the possible influence of climate change and public policies on migration. The key challenge was to understand current patterns of migration, the processes involved and the social, cultural, economic and political causes and effects, taking into account issues that are increasing in importance, such as climate change, and seeking to discover the extent of their influence in the midst of other factors that drive migration. It is well known that migration is not a simple occurrence. In fact, it involves a series of processes, motivations, causes and decisions. Because it is a collective rather than an individual process, it takes on the character of a 'social phenomenon' that is historically and geographically determined. In many cases, there are cultural practices of transhumance, such as agriculture on different ecological levels or the use of winter and summer pastures. This involves people moving from one place to another, sometimes travelling long distances and crossing districts for several months at a time. These transhumance practices

  5. Rural migration in Bolivia: the impact of climate change, economic crisis and state policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariscal, Carlos Balderrama; Tassi, Nico; Miranda, Ana Rubena; Canedo, Lucia Aramayo; Cazorla, Ivan

    2011-04-15

    This case study analyses current migration dynamics in two regions of Bolivia: Northern Potosi, one of the main areas of outmigration in Bolivia, and the municipality of San Julian in the Department of Santa Cruz, a major destination for internal migrants, some of whom come from Northern Potosi. The research was qualitative in nature, with specific attention to breadth and accuracy in the information and analysis. The methods used were participative and the research was done in collaboration with the rural and indigenous organisations in the two selected areas: the Federation of Indigenous Ayllus of Northern Potosi (Federacion de Ayllus Originarios Indigenas del Norte de Potosi Charka Qhara Qhara - FAOI-NP) and the Federation of Intercultural Communities of San Julian (Federacion de Comunidades Interculturales de San Julian). The information gathering process examined a wide range of factors that may trigger migration, including the possible influence of climate change and public policies on migration. The key challenge was to understand current patterns of migration, the processes involved and the social, cultural, economic and political causes and effects, taking into account issues that are increasing in importance, such as climate change, and seeking to discover the extent of their influence in the midst of other factors that drive migration. It is well known that migration is not a simple occurrence. In fact, it involves a series of processes, motivations, causes and decisions. Because it is a collective rather than an individual process, it takes on the character of a 'social phenomenon' that is historically and geographically determined. In many cases, there are cultural practices of transhumance, such as agriculture on different ecological levels or the use of winter and summer pastures. This involves people moving from one place to another, sometimes travelling long distances and crossing districts for several months at a time. These transhumance

  6. Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord

    2016-03-01

    One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries. © 2015 APJPH.

  7. The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: New Damage Functions from a Meta-Analsis and the GGCMI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, F. C.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Hertel, T. W.; Diaz, D.

    2016-12-01

    Substantial advances have been made in recent years in understanding the effects of climate change on agriculture, but this is not currently represented in economic models used to quantify the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the science regarding climate change impacts on agriculture in these models dates to the early 1990s or before. In this paper we derive new economic damage functions for the agricultural sector based on two methods for aggregating current scientific understanding of the impacts of warming on yields. We first present a new meta-analysis based on a review of the agronomic literature performed for the IPCC 5th Assessment Report and compare results from this approach with findings from the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). We find yield impacts implied by the meta-analysis are generally more negative than those from the GGCMI, particularly at higher latitudes, but show substantial agreement in many areas. We then use both yield products as input to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in order to estimate the welfare consequences of these yield shocks and to produce two new economic damage functions. These damage functions are consistently more negative than the current representation of agricultural damages in Integrated Asessment Models (IAMs), in some cases substantially so. Replacing the existing damage functions with those based on more recent science increases the social cost of carbon (SCC) by between 43% (GGCMI) and 143% (Meta-Analysis). In addition to presenting a new mutli-crop, multi-model gridded yield impact prouct that complements the GGCMI, this is also the first end-to-end study that directly links the biophysical impacts of climate change to the SCC, something we believe essential to improving the integrity of IAMs going forward.

  8. Who is producing current without derailing the climate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huet, Sylvestre

    2014-01-01

    The author examines whether it would be possible to massively produce electricity without disturbing the climate. He outlines the rather high level of CO 2 emissions by the energy sector in the World, the continuous increase of electricity consumption (mainly due to China). He comments the level of energy transition in western countries (level of low-carbon or de-carbonated energy), and notices that some good performance are due to the levels of nuclear energy and hydroelectric energy. He discusses the challenges raised by a perspective of phasing out nuclear for different countries

  9. Remote Sensing Studies Of The Current Martian Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, F. W.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Calcutt, S. B.; Moroz, V. I.

    A systematic and detailed experimental study of the Martian atmosphere remains to be carried out, despite many decades of intense interest in the nature of the Martian climate system, its interactions, variability and long-term stability. Such a study is planned by the 2005 Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, using limb-scanning infrared radiometric techniques similar to those used to study trace species in the terrestrial stratosphere. For Mars, the objectives are temperature, humidity, dust and condensate abundances with high vertical resolution and global coverage in the 0 to 80 km height range. The paper will discuss the experiment and its methodology and expectations for the results.

  10. IS Audit Considerations in Respect of Current Economic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlasta Svata

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Accountancy organizations, regulatory bodies, standard setters, and other international organizations have developed guidance, articles, frameworks and resources on issues related to the global financial crisis. Now there is a clear and widely accepted need for more rigorous governance over companies´ systems of internal control. Historically there exist many different activities aiming to support effective enterprise governance (legislative acts, best practices, standards, frameworks. But all these activities may have reinforced the already-existing focus on enterprise governance, but they did not necessarily bring clarity to the topic. Therefore we can currently notice some changes aiming to improve the adoption and adaptation of best practices and standards within the area of enterprise governance. The paper discusses the changes in the Enterprise Governance of IT/IS, audit/assurance evolution, and intended Cobit improvements.

  11. The price of change [The Stern Review looks at the economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, N.

    2007-01-01

    The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, commissioned by the UK Treasury, has assessed a wide range of evidence on the impacts of climate change and on the economic costs. And, in its review, has used a number of different techniques to assess costs and risks. From all of these perspectives, the evidence gathered by the Review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting. Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world - access to water, food production, health, and the environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms. So prompt and strong action is clearly warranted. Because climate change is a global problem, the response to it must be international. It must be based on a shared vision of long term goals and agreement on frameworks that will accelerate action over the next decade, and it must build on mutually reinforcing approaches at national, regional and international level. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol provide a basis for international co-operation, along with a range of partnerships and other approaches. But more ambitious action is now required around the world

  12. Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising

  13. Governance through Economic Paradigms: Addressing Climate Change by Accounting for Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristine Belesova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a major challenge for sustainable development, impacting human health, wellbeing, security, and livelihoods. While the post-2015 development agenda sets out action on climate change as one of the Sustainable Development Goals, there is little provision on how this can be achieved in tandem with the desired economic progress and the required improvements in health and wellbeing. This paper examines synergies and tensions between the goals addressing climate change and economic progress. We identify reductionist approaches in economics, such as ‘externalities’, reliance on the metric of the Gross Domestic Product, positive discount rates, and short-term profit targets as some of the key sources of tensions between these goals. Such reductionist approaches could be addressed by intersectoral governance mechanisms. Health in All Policies, health-sensitive macro-economic progress indicators, and accounting for long-term and non-monetary values are some of the approaches that could be adapted and used in governance for the SDGs. Policy framing of climate change and similar issues should facilitate development of intersectoral governance approaches.

  14. Changing Climate, Changing Behavior: Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filatova, Tatiana; Bin, Okmyung; Kaminski, Bogumil; Koloch, Grzegorz

    2014-01-01

    Spatial econometrics and analytical spatial economic modeling advanced significantly in the recent years. Yet, methodologically they are designed to tackle marginal changes in the underlying dynamics of spatial urban systems. In the world with climate change, however, abrupt sudden non-marginal

  15. Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S.J.; Botzen, Wouter J.W.

    2017-01-01

    Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be

  16. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: a Ricardian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gbetibouo, G. A.; Hassan, R. M.

    2005-07-01

    This study employed a Ricardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socio-economic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climate change showing that the spatial distribution of climate change impact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climate change scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region.

  17. Potential and economic efficiency of using reduced tillage to mitigate climate effects in Danish agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne; Jørgensen, Sisse Liv; Nainggolan, Doan

    2016-01-01

    , research also suggests that soil carbon stocks are declining. The scope of Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) approaches to effectively and efficiently address climate regulation will depend on the spatial distribution of the carbon assimilation capacity, current land use, the value of avoided emissions...... and compare these to the marginal abatement costs curve used in Danish climate policy. The cost effectiveness of reduced tillage as a climate mitigation PES scheme critically depends on the current debate on the net effects of carbon sequestration in reduced tillage practices. Based on existing IPCC...

  18. Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in China. Current status and the way ahead

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kejun Jiang; Xiulian Hu; Xianli Zhu; Garg, A.; Halsnaes, K.; Qiang Liu

    2007-09-01

    This report is the China Country Report of the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing economies. Under this project four country studies have been carried out, on China, India, Brazil, and South Africa respectively. The focus of this report is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. The report gives a short introduction to the project and its approach, followed by analyses of Chinese energy, development and climate change and an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. (BA)

  19. Economically compatible climate protection for Germany as a major site of industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fahl, U.; Laege, E.; Schaumann, P.; Voss, A.

    1996-01-01

    National climate protection policy must be designed in such a way as to ensure its compatibility with the economy and full employment. In this context, cost-efficient measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions which achieve a maximum cut in greenhouse gases for each Mark that is spent are of paramount importance. Climate protection, the strengthening of Germany as a major site of industry and a sphere of life, sustainable development and the safeguarding of power supply are all one. Political and economic action must have this fact in mind. This is the background against which the possibilities for economically compatible and climate-friendly reduction of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in Germany are discussed. (orig.) [de

  20. Climate change economics on a small island: new approaches for Tobago

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, Murray [University of Oxford (United Kingdom); Birch, Tom

    2011-01-15

    For small islands like Tobago — that depend heavily on tourism driven by their natural 'beauty' — climate change poses a double-edged threat on supply and demand. Rising sea levels, increasing temperatures and more frequent and intense storms will damage the island's natural assets, such as coral reefs and beaches. This could have a heavy impact on tourism, which will also be affected by climate policy in 'source' countries. But what exactly will that impact be? How much will it cost? And what can be done about it? Traditional economic analysis is ill-equipped to answer these questions because it offers static and highly uncertain models and assessments of damage and loss, rather than flexible response options that consider system dynamics. We urgently need to use and expand new forms of economic analysis to better support the difficult decisions that Caribbean policymakers face as a result of climate change.

  1. Climate constraints on the carbon intensity of economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rozenberg, Julie; Narloch, Ulf; Hallegatte, Stephane; Davis, Steven J

    2015-01-01

    Development and climate goals together constrain the carbon intensity of production. Using a simple and transparent model that represents committed CO 2 emissions (future emissions expected to come from existing capital), we explore the carbon intensity of production related to new capital required for different temperature targets across several thousand scenarios. Future pathways consistent with the 2 °C target which allow for continued gross domestic product growth require early action to reduce carbon intensity of new production, and either (i) a short lifetime of energy and industry capital (e.g. early retrofit of coal power plants), or (ii) large negative emissions after 2050 (i.e. rapid development and dissemination of carbon capture and sequestration). To achieve the 2 °C target, half of the scenarios indicate a carbon intensity of new production between 33 and 73 g CO 2 /$—much lower than the global average today, at 360 g CO 2 /$. The average lifespan of energy capital (especially power plants), and industry capital, are critical because they commit emissions far into the future and reduce the budget for new capital emissions. Each year of lifetime added to existing, carbon intensive capital, decreases the carbon intensity of new production required to meet a 2 °C carbon budget by 1.0–1.5 g CO 2 /$, and each year of delaying the start of mitigation decreases the required CO 2 intensity of new production by 20–50 g CO 2 /$. Constraints on the carbon intensity of new production under a 3 °C target are considerably relaxed relative to the 2 °C target, but remain daunting in comparison to the carbon intensity of the global economy today. (letter)

  2. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  3. DSM shareholder incentives: Current designs and economic theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoft, S.; Eto, J.; Kito, S.

    1995-01-01

    This report reviews recent DSM shareholder incentive designs and performance at 10 US utilities identifies opportunities for regulators to improve the design of DSM shareholder incentive mechanisms to increase the procurement of cost-effective DSM resources. We develop six recommendations: (1) apply shared-savings incentives to DSM resource programs; (2) use markup incentives for individual programs only when net benefits are difficult to measure, but are known to be positive; (3) set expected incentive payments based on covering a utility's open-quotes hidden costs,close quotes which include some transitional management and risk-adjusted opportunity costs; (4) use higher marginal incentives rates than are currently found in practice, but limit total incentive payments by adding a fixed charge; (5) mitigate risks to regulators and utilities by lowering marginal incentive rates at high and low performance levels; and (6) use an aggregate incentive mechanism for all DSM resource programs, with limited exceptions (e.g., information programs where markups are more appropriate)

  4. Treasury Financial Management company in the current economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FLOAREA GEORGESCU

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Any management decision has a direct monetary impact on the structure uses and sources of cash. Cash Management aims to permanently maintain a balance between inflows and outflows of cash and cash to predict the impact of any operational decisions that could affect these flows. The success of any business requires good management of all these flows. The principle of this approach is relatively simple: using a minimum of ores to obtain maximum performance in a given period. Cash management is an extremely complex issue, and balancing receipts and payments flow is a constant struggle for survival of firms. In It work we will focus on how they are oriented in a going concern basis, cash inflows and financing needs of current operations. Managers should understand and know the specific movements of cash within the business system, driven daily decisions on operating, investing or financing, and a variety of external circumstances which affect the company. Such decisions and events can affect the company's ability to pay its obligations to obtain credit from suppliers, banks or credit institutions and to maintain an operational level in line with the company's products and services through investments.

  5. Carbon taxes and tradeable emissions permits: the economic impacts of climate change policies in New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chisholm, A.; Porter, M. [Tasman Institute (Australia)

    1994-12-31

    Examines the potential economic impacts on New Zealand of climate change policy covering carbon taxes, expanding forest areas as carbon sinks (including selling plantation based emission credits to other OECD nations), and emissions quotas. It is concluded that climate change policy appears to offer high short-term economic costs and little prospect of longer-term economic gain, apart from uncertain environmental benefits. If the Government pursues an active policy to stabilise gross emissions of carbon dioxide at 1990 levels, short term losses in national output and real spending power could be around 0.5 to 1% of GDP. Any major intervention by the New Zealand Government to alter energy use patterns would bring about structural changes in the economy. 4 tabs., 12 refs.

  6. Carbon sequestration and climate policy: elements of economic analysis. CGDD-TSE partnership

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubreu, Nathalie; Hardelin, Julien; Gilles Lafforgue

    2012-05-01

    In September 2011 the General Commission for Sustainable Development and Toulouse School of Economics jointly organized a conference on 'Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and climate policies: an economic analysis'. This paper presents an overview of the main results of the conference concerning the optimal energy mix and carbon emission path in the presence of CCS, the superiority of a policy mix combining an environmental tax with R and D subsidies, as well as the inter-generational equity-efficiency trade-off. It is based on presentations by Gilles Lafforgue, Andre Grimaud and Michel Moreaux, researchers from the Toulouse School of Economics. This overview confirms that a climate policy is more effective if it combines several instruments (tax and subsidies) and if it is quickly implemented. (authors)

  7. Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rulin; Li, Qing; He, Shisong; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingtian; Jiang, Gan

    2018-01-01

    Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

  8. Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rulin Wang

    Full Text Available Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China.Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation.The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100 was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%, mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%, precipitation in May (11.5% and minimum temperature in October (10.8%, had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa.The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

  9. INVESTMENT CLIMATE OF KAZAKHSTAN: CURRENT STATUS AND PROSPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madina Abugalievna TEMIRBULATOVA

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture still remains a little attractive to most of investors. Modern investment into agrarian sector of Kazakhstan and growth of its investment appeal restrains an acute shortage of financial resources, poorly developed material base, low solvent demand of the population therefore growth of investments is one of major factors of ensuring economic development of agriculture in general, improvement of quality of life of the population of the village, updating of regional technical and technological base, fixed assets in agriculture. In this regard special relevance researches on improvement of mechanisms of attraction of investments into agrarian sector of economy and methods of increase of investment appeal of agriculture for the purpose of ensuring its sustainable economic development. If to consider already created interstate unions, in this plan it is expedient to consider relationship between Romania and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan and Romania will develop in common electronic decisions in education, medicine and agriculture. In Kazakhstan communications with inclusion of the earth in market the turn appears need for new financial instruments as mortgage valuable issue papers (bonds. The proposed Мodel of land - mortgage lending will be the main way to increase the investment attractiveness Republic of Kazakhstan.

  10. The Development of Forms of Corporate Social Responsibility in Russia in the Current Economic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Arzumanova

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the characteristic features of modern trends in the formation and implementation of corporate social responsibility in Russia in the current economic conditions, which is based on the fact that reasonable economic interests oriented business not only on maximizing profits, but also to improve their own macro - socio-economic, natural, political, through voluntary investment profits in the respective areas.

  11. A current value Hamiltonian Approach for Discrete time Optimal Control Problems arising in Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Naz, Rehana

    2018-01-01

    Pontrygin-type maximum principle is extended for the present value Hamiltonian systems and current value Hamiltonian systems of nonlinear difference equations for uniform time step $h$. A new method termed as a discrete time current value Hamiltonian method is established for the construction of first integrals for current value Hamiltonian systems of ordinary difference equations arising in Economic growth theory.

  12. The challenges and opportunities of climate change policy under different stages of economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liobikienė, Genovaitė; Butkus, Mindaugas

    2018-06-18

    Climate change policy confronts with many challenges and opportunities. Thus the aim of this study was to analyse the impact of gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP), trade, foreign direct investment (hereinafter FDI), energy efficiency (hereinafter EF) and renewable energy (hereinafter RE) consumption on greenhouse gas (hereinafter GHG) emissions in 1990-2013 and reveal the main challenges and opportunities of climate policy for which policy makers should take the most attention under different stages of economic development. The results showed that the economic growth significantly contributed to the increase of GHG emissions and remains the main challenge in all groups of countries. Analysing the trade impact on pollution, the results revealed that the growth of export (hereinafter EX) significantly reduced GHG emissions only in high income countries. However, the export remains a challenge in low income countries. FDI insignificantly determined the changes in GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Meanwhile, energy efficiency and share of renewable energy consumption are the main opportunities of climate change policy because they reduce the GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Thus, technological processes, the increase of energy efficiency and the shift from carbon to renewable energy sources are the main tools implementing the climate change policy in all countries despite the different stage of economic development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Francina; Dall'erba, Sandy; Huang, Shuyi; Avelino, Andre; Mehran, Ali; Hu, Huancui; Schmidt, Arthur; Schick, Lawrence; Lettenmaier, Dennis

    2018-03-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a) alternative future radiative forcings, (b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

  14. Economic Models for Inland Navigation in the Context of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirel, E.

    2011-01-01

    The inland navigation market of North-Western Europe faces potential problems due to climate change. Different measures may be taken by governments, carriers, and customers to cope with the negative effects of climate change. The effects of climate change on the inland navigation market may also be different for regions with different demand for transport by inland navigation. The research carried out in this dissertation can be seen as an investigation into adaptation strategies and the interaction-effects of imbalance and climate change on the inland navigation market. This gives rise to the following two main research questions for this dissertation: (1) What is the optimal barge-size adjustment for barge operators to cope with climate change, and what are the implications of climate change for investments in inland waterway infrastructure by the public sector?; (2) What is the impact of climate change on freight prices in the inland navigation market in the presence of direction dependent freight imbalances? There is still a gap in the scientific literature on the transport economic aspects of inland navigation in general. This dissertation contributes to this literature by approaching the field in a climate change context. In addition, the incorporation of imperfect information to the backhaul literature can be seen as a contribution to the economic theory. We show that imbalance leads to different impacts of climate change in different regions (even though the climate change may be the same for these regions). As a contribution to decision making, the adaptation strategies that are evaluated from a welfare economic perspective can be mentioned. Both private decision making (choice of barge size) and public decision making (choice of amount to invest in infrastructure) are supported, by providing the optimal values to be chosen for the instruments available. By taking the imbalance issue into account, this study gives insights into how to achieve a fair

  15. Economic Models for Inland Navigation in the Context of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demirel, E.

    2011-04-06

    The inland navigation market of North-Western Europe faces potential problems due to climate change. Different measures may be taken by governments, carriers, and customers to cope with the negative effects of climate change. The effects of climate change on the inland navigation market may also be different for regions with different demand for transport by inland navigation. The research carried out in this dissertation can be seen as an investigation into adaptation strategies and the interaction-effects of imbalance and climate change on the inland navigation market. This gives rise to the following two main research questions for this dissertation: (1) What is the optimal barge-size adjustment for barge operators to cope with climate change, and what are the implications of climate change for investments in inland waterway infrastructure by the public sector?; (2) What is the impact of climate change on freight prices in the inland navigation market in the presence of direction dependent freight imbalances? There is still a gap in the scientific literature on the transport economic aspects of inland navigation in general. This dissertation contributes to this literature by approaching the field in a climate change context. In addition, the incorporation of imperfect information to the backhaul literature can be seen as a contribution to the economic theory. We show that imbalance leads to different impacts of climate change in different regions (even though the climate change may be the same for these regions). As a contribution to decision making, the adaptation strategies that are evaluated from a welfare economic perspective can be mentioned. Both private decision making (choice of barge size) and public decision making (choice of amount to invest in infrastructure) are supported, by providing the optimal values to be chosen for the instruments available. By taking the imbalance issue into account, this study gives insights into how to achieve a fair

  16. Integrated climate modelling at the Kiel Institute for World Economics: The DART Model and its applications

    OpenAIRE

    Deke, Oliver; Peterson, Sonja

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to give an overview over the DART model and its applications. The main focus is on the implementation of climate impacts into DART in the course of coupling DART to the ocean-atmosphere model and on the associated empirical problems. The basic DART model and some applications are presented in the next section. Section 3 describes in detail how the economic impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector and the impact of sea level rise are implemented in DART. Se...

  17. Estimating the economic impact of climate change on the freshwater sportsfisheries of the Northeastern United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pendleton, L. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Economics; Mendelsohn, R. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

    1997-06-06

    This study links models of global climate circulation, ecology, and economic valuation (hedonic travel cost and random utility models) to value the impact of global warming on freshwater sportfishing in the Northeast. An origin-specific linear random utility model (RUM) is introduced. The results of the RUM are shown to be comparable to those of a hedonic travel cost model. A doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide is predicted to generate between a $4.6 million loss and a $20.5 million net benefit for the Northeastern United States, depending on the climate scenario.

  18. Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

    2017-12-01

    Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development

  19. Chapter 4. Economic Considerations: Cost-Effective and Efficient Climate Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maximilian Auffhammer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this chapter we discuss the economics of climate change. We begin with a discussion of economic considerations that are important to take into account when designing and evaluating climate policy, including cost effectiveness and efficiency. We then discuss specific policies at the state, national, and international level in light of these economic considerations.  We have several recommendations for the path forward for climate policy. First, the goal of climate policy should be to reduce the damages caused by greenhouse gases. In addition to mitigation policy to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, one can also reduce the damages causes by greenhouse gases by adaptation measures that reduce our vulnerability to climate change impacts.  Second, policy-makers should use incentive- (or market- based instruments as opposed to command and control policies (including quantity-based mandates whenever possible. Whenever unpriced emissions are the sole market failure, incentive-based instruments such as a carbon tax or cap and trade program are more likely to achieve the social optimum and maximize social net benefits [1, 2]. Lin and Prince [3] calculate that the optimal gasoline tax for the state of California is $1.37 per gallon.  Our third recommendation is to address the risk of emissions leakage, which arises when only one jurisdiction (e.g., California imposes climate policy, but not the entire world. One way to reduce emissions leakage is to use the strategic distribution of emissions allowances to local producers. This method, known as “output-based allocation” or benchmarking, effectively subsidizes local producers and at least partially offsets the increase in their costs caused by an emissions cap [4]. Importantly, only local production is eligible for an allocation of valuable allowances, providing a counterweight to the incentive for emission leakage. Our fourth recommendation is that if they are used instead

  20. Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Molinos, J; Burrows, M T; Poloczanska, E S

    2017-05-02

    Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

  1. The Current Status and Prospects of the Economic Relationship between North Korea and China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myoungchul Cho

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available After the socialist market collapse after 1990s, the economic relationship of North Korea and China is becoming closer. It can be proven by the fact that economic relationship between this two countries are transferring from the national trade model to various models such as border trade, agency trade, the illicit trade and investment aid. In this progress, North Korea rely China more than in 1990. But after 1992, the economic relationship is falling from the political priority as before, blind support and assistance based on the nature of the economic benefits to the rapid changes in relationship. This thesis reviewed economic relations in the world environment which has changed. First it analyzed the national economy and trade policies adopted in the current situation of two countries, and on this basis, it looked forward to the economic relationship between the two countries, and point out the measures regarding the relationship between two countries.

  2. The current total economic burden of diabetes mellitus in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, M L; Huisman, E L; Schoonen, M; Wolffenbuttel, B H R

    2017-09-01

    Insight into the total economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) is essential for decision makers and payers. Currently available estimates for the Netherlands only include part of the total burden or are no longer up-to-date. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the current total economic burden of DM and its complications in the Netherlands, by including all the relevant cost components. The study combined a systematic literature review to identify all relevant published information and a targeted review to identify relevant information in the grey literature. The identified evidence was then combined to estimate the current total economic burden. In 2016, there were an estimated 1.1 million DM patients in the Netherlands, of whom approximately 10% had type 1 and 90% had type 2 DM. The estimated current total economic burden of DM was € 6.8 billion in 2016. Healthcare costs (excluding costs of complications) were € 1.6 billion, direct costs of complications were € 1.3 billion and indirect costs due to productivity losses, welfare payments and complications were € 4.0 billion. DM and its complications pose a substantial economic burden to the Netherlands, which is expected to rise due to changing demographics and lifestyle. Indirect costs, such as welfare payments, accounted for a large portion of the current total economic burden of DM, while these cost components are often not included in cost estimations. Publicly available data for key cost drivers such as complications were scarce.

  3. Integrated impact assessment of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a watershed in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paas, Wim; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Ven, van de Gerrie; Reidsma, Pytrik

    2016-01-01

    Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts

  4. The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabubo-Mariara, Jane; Karanja, Fredrick K.

    2007-06-01

    This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.

  5. Proposal for new climate agreements: Economic growth determines the emission quota

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallbekken, Steffen; Tjernshaugen, Andreas

    2002-01-01

    Long-term obligations to curb the emission of climate gases involve economic uncertainty because it is difficult to determine the cost of future reductions. This may be the principle reason why the USA and the developing countries are reluctant to accept binding demands on their emissions of climate gases. For example, the commitments of the Kyoto Protocol were agreed upon more than ten years before they shall be put to force. Over such a long time span it is impossible to predict the development of the economy as well as the gas emissions. Usually economical development leads to increased gas emission. If a country commits itself to a quantified limit on its emission, and the economical development turns out to be much faster than predicted, then living up to the commitments may be very expensive. The same is true if the economic growth occurs in the polluting sectors to a larger degree than expected. Many heads of state thus fear that binding emission targets may restrain economic growth

  6. Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    framework is used to give detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimation of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis. The results are aimed at providing important information for decision making on how best......Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible...

  7. Economists, value judgments, and climate change. A view from feminist economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, Julie A.

    2008-01-01

    A number of recent discussions about ethical issues in climate change, as engaged in by economists, have focused on the value of the parameter representing the rate of time preference within models of optimal growth. This essay examines many economists' antipathy to serious discussion of ethical matters, and suggests that the avoidance of questions of intergenerational equity is related to another set of value judgments concerning the quality and objectivity of economic practice. Using insights from feminist philosophy of science and research on high reliability organizations, this essay argues that a more ethically transparent, real-world-oriented, and flexible economic practice would lead to more reliable and useful knowledge. (author)

  8. The economics of energy policy in China. Implications for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhongxiang Zhang

    1998-01-01

    This book is the first systematic and comprehensive attempt to deal with the economic implications of carbon abatement for the Chinese economy in the light of the economics of climate change. The book provides 1) an analysis of the Chinese energy system in order to shed light on its implications for China's future CO 2 emissions; 2) a macroeconomic analysis of CO 2 emission limits for China, using a newly-developed computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy; and 3) a cost-effective analysis of carbon abatement options in China's electricity sector by means of a technology-oriented dynamic optimization model. (UK)

  9. To define climate politics: role of uncertainties and lessons of economic modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortin, E.

    2004-12-01

    After an overview of the state-of-the-art of scientific knowledge on the climate change phenomenon considered according to its three components (climates, damages and socio-economy) and a focus on the nature and extent of scientific uncertainties (a typology of these is presented), this research presents and analyses the results of technico-economic models dealing with the Kyoto protocol's implementation costs. It aims at determining economical stakes related to action, at looking for the most efficient intervention ways. It analyses the results of bottom-up and top-down models, tries to identify robustness and uncertainties by using the previously introduced uncertainty typology. It presents and analyses long term scenarios, and highlights the role of energy systems in the determination of emissions. Finally, the author presents various categories of instruments which policy makers can use to implement a mitigation policy

  10. Climate Informed Economic Instruments to Enhance Urban Water Supply Resilience to Hydroclimatological Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, C.; Carriquiry, M.; Souza Filho, F. A.

    2006-12-01

    Hydroclimatological variability presents acute challenges to urban water supply providers. The impact is often most severe in developing nations where hydrologic and climate variability can be very high, water demand is unmet and increasing, and the financial resources to mitigate the social effects of that variability are limited. Furthermore, existing urban water systems face a reduced solution space, constrained by competing and conflicting interests, such as irrigation demand, recreation and hydropower production, and new (relative to system design) demands to satisfy environmental flow requirements. These constraints magnify the impacts of hydroclimatic variability and increase the vulnerability of urban areas to climate change. The high economic and social costs of structural responses to hydrologic variability, such as groundwater utilization and the construction or expansion of dams, create a need for innovative alternatives. Advances in hydrologic and climate forecasting, and the increasing sophistication and acceptance of incentive-based mechanisms for achieving economically efficient water allocation offer potential for improving the resilience of existing water systems to the challenge of variable supply. This presentation will explore the performance of a system of climate informed economic instruments designed to facilitate the reduction of hydroclimatologic variability-induced impacts on water-sensitive stakeholders. The system is comprised of bulk water option contracts between urban water suppliers and agricultural users and insurance indexed on reservoir inflows designed to cover the financial needs of the water supplier in situations where the option is likely to be exercised. Contract and insurance parameters are linked to forecasts and the evolution of seasonal precipitation and streamflow and designed for financial and political viability. A simulation of system performance is presented based on ongoing work in Metro Manila, Philippines. The

  11. Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng

    2016-01-01

    on Light Detection and Ranging-derived maximum forest canopy height (Hmax) to test hypotheses relating Hmax to current climate (water availability, ambient energy and water–energy dynamics), regional evolutionary and biogeographic history, historical climate change, and human disturbance. We derived Hmax...... biogeographic regions, supporting the role of regional evolutionary and biogeographic history in structuring broad-scale patterns in canopy height. Furthermore, there were divergent relationships between climate and Hmax between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, consistent with historical evolutionary...... contingencies modulating these relationships. Historical climate change was also related to Hmax, albeit not as strongly, with shorter canopy heights where late-Quaternary climate has been less stable. In contrast, human disturbance was only weakly related to Hmax at the scale (55 km) examined here. Synthesis...

  12. Energy and Economic Evaluation of Green Roofs for Residential Buildings in Hot-Humid Climates

    OpenAIRE

    Abubakar S. Mahmoud; Muhammad Asif; Mohammad A. Hassanain; Mohammad O. Babsail; Muizz O. Sanni-Anibire

    2017-01-01

    Green roofs may be considered a passive energy saving technology that also offer benefits like environmental friendliness and enhancement of aesthetic and architectural qualities of buildings. This paper examines the energy and economic viability of the green roof technology in the hot humid climate of Saudi Arabia by considering a modern four bedroom residential building in the city of Dhahran as a case study. The base case and green roof modelling of the selected building has been developed...

  13. The Northern Climate Exchange Gap Analysis Project : an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change in northern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The Northern Climate ExChange (NCE) Gap Analysis Project was launched in 1999 with an objective to assess the state of knowledge on climate change in northern Canada. Resulting products of the project have included the Infosource Database, an on-line database of published climate change research related to the Canadian North, the Directory of Contacts, another on-line database of interested parties to climate change issues, and a set of tables that rate the level of available information on climate change as it relates to natural, economic and community systems. Other products include a report of a workshop on climate change research, 2 reports assessing the level of traditional northern knowledge about climate change, 2 reports assessing the completeness and value of the Infosource Database, a web site for NCE, and this report. All products are available to the public on the Internet or on a CD-ROM. The NCE Gap Analysis Project has shown there are inequalities in the amount of information across different systems, and that there is more knowledge on predicted temperature changes than for other climate components. The study notes that there are strong regional trends for compiled knowledge, with some regions having been better studied than others. The project revealed that traditional knowledge of climate change has not been well documented, and that more information exists about climate change impacts on biological systems with an economic component than those without economic significance. refs., tabs., figs

  14. The economic value of the climate regulation ecosystem service provided by the Amazon rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heil Costa, Marcos; Pires, Gabrielle; Fontes, Vitor; Brumatti, Livia

    2017-04-01

    The rainy Amazon climate allowed important activities to develop in the region as large rainfed agricultural lands and hydropower plants. The Amazon rainforest is an important source of moisture to the regional atmosphere and helps regulate the local climate. The replacement of forest by agricultural lands decreases the flux of water vapor into the atmosphere and changes the precipitation patterns, which may severely affect such economic activities. Assign an economic value to this ecosystem service may emphasize the significance to preserve the Amazon rainforest. In this work, we provide a first approximation of the quantification of the climate regulation ecosystem service provided by the Amazon rainforest using the marginal production method. We use climate scenarios derived from Amazon deforestation scenarios as input to crop and runoff models to assess how land use change would affect agriculture and hydropower generation. The effects of forest removal on soybean production and on cattle beef production can both be as high as US 16 per year per ha deforested, and the effects on hydropower generation can be as high as US 8 per year per ha deforested. We consider this as a conservative estimate of a permanent service provided by the rainforest. Policy makers and other Amazon agriculture and energy businesses must be aware of these numbers, and consider them while planning their activities.

  15. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  16. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Production: Implications for Sustainable Agriculture in Northern Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anslem Bawayelaazaa Nyuor

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the economic impacts of climate change on cereal crop production in Northern Ghana using 240 households comprising maize and sorghum farmers. The Ricardian regression approach was used to examine the economic impacts of climate change based on data generated from a survey conducted in the 2013/2014 farming seasons. Forty-year time-series data of rainfall and temperature from 1974 to 2013, together with cross-sectional data, were used for the empirical analysis. The Ricardian regression estimates for both maize and sorghum showed varying degrees of climate change impacts on net revenues. The results indicated that early season precipitation was beneficial for sorghum, but harmful for maize. However, mid-season precipitation tended to promote maize production. Temperature levels for all seasons impacted negatively on net revenue for both crops, except during the mid-season, when temperature exerted a positive effect on net revenue for sorghum. Our findings suggest that appropriate adaptation strategies should be promoted to reduce the negative impacts of prevailing climate change on cereal crop production.

  17. Climate change and indigenous peoples: A synthesis of current impacts and experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton-Smith, Kathryn; Lynn, Kathy; Chief, Karletta; Cozetto, Karen; Donatuto, Jamie; Hiza, Margaret; Kruger, Linda; Maldonado, Julie; Viles, Carson; Whyte, Kyle P.

    2016-01-01

    A growing body of literature examines the vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation of indigenous peoples to climate change. This synthesis of literature brings together research pertaining to the impacts of climate change on sovereignty, culture, health, and economies that are currently being experienced by Alaska Native and American Indian tribes and other indigenous communities in the United States. The knowledge and science of how climate change impacts are affecting indigenous peoples contributes to the development of policies, plans, and programs for adapting to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report defines and describes the key frameworks that inform indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigation, namely, tribal sovereignty and self-determination, culture and cultural identity, and indigenous community health indicators. It also provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate knowledge, science, and strategies that indigenous communities are exploring, as well as an understanding of the gaps in research on these issues. This literature synthesis is intended to make a contribution to future efforts such as the 4th National Climate Assessment, while serving as a resource for future research, tribal and agency climate initiatives, and policy development.

  18. Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; Wilkinson, Paul; Pattenden, Sam; Vieno, Massimo; Armstrong, Ben; Atkinson, Richard; Chalabi, Zaid; Kovats, Sari; Milojevic, Ai; Stevenson, David S

    2009-12-21

    legislation is fully implemented, to a more optimistic case with maximum feasible reductions, through to a more pessimistic case with continued strong economic growth and minimal implementation of air quality legislation. Elevated surface ozone concentrations during the 2003 heatwave period led to exceedences of the current UK air quality objective standards. A coupled climate-chemistry model is able to reproduce these temperature and ozone extremes. By combining model simulations of surface temperature and ozone with ozone-heat-mortality relationships derived from an epidemiological regression model, we estimate present-day and future health burdens across the UK. Future air quality legislation may need to consider the risk of increases in future heatwaves.

  19. Current challenges in health economic modeling of cancer therapies: a research inquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jeffrey D; Foley, Kathleen A; Russell, Mason W

    2014-05-01

    The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Complex technical and

  20. Climate economics: post-Kyoto tracks; Economie du climat: pistes pour l'apres-Kyoto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godard, Olivier; Ponssard, Jean-Pierre [Laboratoire d' Econometrie, Ecole Polytechnique, Route de Saclay, 91128 Palaiseau (France)

    2011-03-19

    Commitments obtained by the Kyoto protocol will end in 2012. An impressive series of conferences - Bali (2007), Copenhagen (2009), Cancun (2010) to mention the main ones - were organised to prepare the post-2012 regime. Everything was supposed to be decided at the Copenhagen meeting but the state representatives came up against the obstacle. The pre-Copenhagen hope has given place to disillusion and has led to a turn-off towards a weekly coordinated regime which requires a strategic revision of approaches. This book presents the lessons learnt from the relative failure of these negotiations and proposes new paths for the future. It puts forward some strategic stakes that have to be taken into account for the future: the equity between very heterogeneous countries and populations, the industrial competitiveness, the carbon leaks and the violation of the most ambitious climate policies due to the heterogeneity of commitment levels, and the geopolitical reality. The world will have to live for a long time with heterogeneous carbon prices, themselves reflecting heterogeneous commitment levels. New modalities have to be defined which would manage to combine justice and efficiency. Two complementary paths are developed in this book: the establishing of adjustment mechanisms at borders and of international sectoral agreements. (J.S.)

  1. Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Ruti, Paolo Michele; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

    2014-04-15

    The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests.

  2. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  3. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, Paul E; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E; Naumova, Elena N; Ostfeld, Richard S; Ready, Paul D; Thomas, Matthew B; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

    2015-04-05

    Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  4. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, Paul E.; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K.; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J.; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E.; Naumova, Elena N.; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Ready, Paul D.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

    2015-01-01

    Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems. PMID:25688012

  5. Energy policy after 2020 : Economic arguments to pursue energy policy for non-climate related reasons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kocsis, V.; Koutstaal, P.; Tieben, B.; van Hout, M.; Hof, B.

    2012-01-01

    This research investigates the contribution of sustainable energy policy and energy saving policy to the public goals of energy policy in the Netherlands. Not surprisingly current discussion about sustainable energy policy focus on the contribution of energy policy to the goals of climate policy,

  6. Economic security of the Russian Federation: current status, level and threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Grigoryeva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The problems of national and economic security maintenanceis aggravating in modern conditions of globalization and international competition related to controlof market channels, technological, information and natural resources.Today Russia is making all efforts to protect its position on the world stage and improve the lives of its citizens.Despite the worsening of the present economic, political and social differences in the world, the Russian Federation has its own national interests, which can be possible to fulfill only on the basis of sustainable development of the national economic security system.The latter traditionally determines the ability of the state economic system to maintain normal conditions for the national economy functioning and the population activity. The national economic securitystabilitycan be estimated only by the application of elaborate tools of the economic development indicators analysis and the threshold values examinationaimed at the determination of the quality characteristic of actual and the most successful model of the economic activity.The analysis of the current Russian economic situation showed the presence of some serious problems existing in the national economy. The economic security level of Russia, having a tendency to increase in the period of 1998-2013, has been sharply reduced to critical points since 2014. So, it is necessary to take some measures to restructure the system of economic security of the state. Based on the research it was identified the list of the most dangerous threats to the modern Russian economy, which includes: low level of the country industrial production; the economy dependence on goods import and raw materials export; low living standards of the population; the rapid growth of the shadow economy and corruption; the lack of civil science and innovationdevelopment. The main strategic directions for economic security levelincrease in Russia today and in the future are aimed at

  7. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.

    2006-01-01

    Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. In the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified...

  8. An Assessment of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses of Climatic Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Willner, S. N.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Risk of extreme weather events like storms, heat extremes, and floods has already risen due to anthropogenic climate change and is likely to increase further under future global warming. Additionally, the structure of the global economy has changed importantly in the last decades. In the process of globalization, local economies have become more and more interwoven forming a complex network. Together with a trend towards lean production, this has resulted in a strong dependency of local manufacturers on global supply and value added chains, which may render the economic network more vulnerable to climatic extremes; outages of local manufacturers trigger indirect losses, which spread along supply chains and can even outstrip direct losses. Accordingly, in a comprehensive climate risk assessment these inter-linkages should be considered. Here, we present acclimate, an agent based dynamic damage propagation model. Its agents are production and consumption sites, which are interlinked by economic flows accounting for the complexity as well as the heterogeneity of the global supply network. Assessing the economic response on the timescale of the adverse event, the model permits to study temporal and spatial evolution of indirect production losses during the disaster and in the subsequent recovery phase of the economy. In this study, we focus on the dynamic economic resilience defined here as the ratio of direct to total losses. This implies that the resilience of the system under consideration is low if the high indirect losses are high. We find and assess a nonlinear dependence of the resilience on the disaster size. Further, we analyze the influence of the network structure upon resilience and discuss the potential of warehousing as an adaptation option.

  9. Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dominguez

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric rivers (ARs account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric–hydrologic–hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a alternative future radiative forcings, (b different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

  10. Life cycle assessment of biochar systems: estimating the energetic, economic, and climate change potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Kelli G; Gloy, Brent A; Joseph, Stephen; Scott, Norman R; Lehmann, Johannes

    2010-01-15

    Biomass pyrolysis with biochar returned to soil is a possible strategy for climate change mitigation and reducing fossil fuel consumption. Pyrolysis with biochar applied to soils results in four coproducts: long-term carbon (C) sequestration from stable C in the biochar, renewable energy generation, biochar as a soil amendment, and biomass waste management. Life cycle assessment was used to estimate the energy and climate change impacts and the economics of biochar systems. The feedstocks analyzed represent agricultural residues (corn stover), yard waste, and switchgrass energy crops. The net energy of the system is greatest with switchgrass (4899 MJ t(-1) dry feedstock). The net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for both stover and yard waste are negative, at -864 and -885 kg CO(2) equivalent (CO(2)e) emissions reductions per tonne dry feedstock, respectively. Of these total reductions, 62-66% are realized from C sequestration in the biochar. The switchgrass biochar-pyrolysis system can be a net GHG emitter (+36 kg CO(2)e t(-1) dry feedstock), depending on the accounting method for indirect land-use change impacts. The economic viability of the pyrolysis-biochar system is largely dependent on the costs of feedstock production, pyrolysis, and the value of C offsets. Biomass sources that have a need for waste management such as yard waste have the highest potential for economic profitability (+$69 t(-1) dry feedstock when CO(2)e emission reductions are valued at $80 t(-1) CO(2)e). The transportation distance for feedstock creates a significant hurdle to the economic profitability of biochar-pyrolysis systems. Biochar may at present only deliver climate change mitigation benefits and be financially viable as a distributed system using waste biomass.

  11. Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haurie, A.; Tavoni, M.; Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

    2011-01-01

    This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

  12. Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haurie, A. [ORDECSYS, Geneva (Switzerland); Tavoni, M. [Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Van der Zwaan, B.C.C. [Policy Studies Department, Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2011-07-15

    This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

  13. Environmental impacts of barley cultivation under current and future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dijkman, Teunis Johannes; Birkved, Morten; Saxe, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    for the increased impacts. This finding was confirmed by the sensitivity analysis. Because this study focused solely on the impacts of climate change, technological improvements and political measures to reduce impacts in the 2050 scenario are not taken into account. Options to mitigate the environmental impacts......The purpose of this work is to compare the environmental impacts of spring barley cultivation in Denmark under current (year 2010) and future (year 2050) climatic conditions. Therefore, a Life Cycle Assessment was carried out for the production of 1 kg of spring barley in Denmark, at farm gate....... Both under 2010 and 2050 climatic conditions, four subscenarios were modelled, based on a combination of two soil types and two climates. Included in the assessment were seed production, soil preparation, fertilization, pesticide application, and harvest. When processes in the life cycle resulted in co...

  14. Economic performance of irrigation capacity development to adapt to climate in the American Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Frank A.; Crawford, Terry L.

    2016-09-01

    Growing demands for food security to feed increasing populations worldwide have intensified the search for improved performance of irrigation, the world's largest water user. These challenges are raised in the face of climate variability and from growing environmental demands. Adaptation measures in irrigated agriculture include fallowing land, shifting cropping patterns, increased groundwater pumping, reservoir storage capacity expansion, and increased production of risk-averse crops. Water users in the Gila Basin headwaters of the U.S. Lower Colorado Basin have faced a long history of high water supply fluctuations producing low-valued defensive cropping patterns. To date, little research grade analysis has investigated economically viable measures for irrigation development to adjust to variable climate. This gap has made it hard to inform water resource policy decisions on workable measures to adapt to climate in the world's dry rural areas. This paper's contribution is to illustrate, formulate, develop, and apply a new methodology to examine the economic performance from irrigation capacity improvements in the Gila Basin of the American Southwest. An integrated empirical optimization model using mathematical programming is developed to forecast cropping patterns and farm income under two scenarios (1) status quo without added storage capacity and (2) with added storage capacity in which existing barriers to development of higher valued crops are dissolved. We find that storage capacity development can lead to a higher valued portfolio of irrigation production systems as well as more sustained and higher valued farm livelihoods. Results show that compared to scenario (1), scenario (2) increases regional farm income by 30%, in which some sub regions secure income gains exceeding 900% compared to base levels. Additional storage is most economically productive when institutional and technical constraints facing irrigated agriculture are dissolved. Along with

  15. Catastrophic fat tails and non-smooth damage functions-fire economics and climate change adaptation for public policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adriana Keeting; John Handmer

    2013-01-01

    South-eastern Australia is one of the most fire prone environments on earth. Devastating fires in February 2009 appear to have been off the charts climatically and economically, they led to a new category of fire danger aptly called 'catastrophic'. Almost all wildfire losses have been associated with these extreme conditions and climate change will see an...

  16. Climatic change as an argument in the chase for tax money and market intervention. Political economics and scientific uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benedictus, A.

    2006-01-01

    Based on a political-economical analysis of the stakeholders in the debate on climatic change the author states that the people involved use their arguments on climatic change and its consequences for their own interest and purposes. The precautionary principle is the democratic alibi for politicians and other interest groups to use those interests over the heads of the misguided public [nl

  17. Assessing local and regional economic impacts of climatic extremes and feasibility of adaptation measures in Dutch arable farming systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diogo, V.; Reidsma, P.; Schaap, B.; Andree, B. P.J.; Koomen, E.

    2017-01-01

    We propose a method that combines local productivity factors, economic factors, crop-specific sensitivity to climatic extremes, and future climate change scenarios, to assess potential impacts of extreme weather events on agricultural production systems. Our assessment is spatially explicit and uses

  18. How much will be economic impact of climate change on water resources? A Meta-Analytic Review of previous literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

    2016-12-01

    Water resources is vital in social and economic activities. Total global water use is increasing, mainly due to economic and population growth in developing countries. It has one of risk with high agreement and robust evidence that freshwater-related risks of climate change increase significantly with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. It is difficult to compare the risk with other field risk (e.g. agriculture, forestry, sea level rise) for considering both adaptation and mitigation policy with the level of decision makers and public servants. Economic impacts of climate change on water scarcity has been estimated by economic researchers. We have no certainty at all about integration between hydrological and economical fields on global scale. In this study, we highlight key concerns about conventional estimations of economic impact on water resources through meta-analysis. The economic impact on water resource in same base year using consumer price index is shown with increase in the global mean temperature. We clarified four concerns which are involved in 1) classification of economic mechanism, 2) estimated items of economic impact, 3) difference in estimating equations, and 4) definition of parameters related with economic impact of climate change. This study would be essential to next challenge as transdisciplinary research between hydrologic and economic fields.

  19. Coupled Effects of Climatic and Socio-economic Factors on Winter Cropping in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, M.; Mondal, P.; Galford, G. L.; DeFries, R. S.

    2015-12-01

    India is predicted to be one of the most vulnerable regions in terms of agricultural sensitivity to future climate changes. Approximately 69% of India's population is rural, and over 55% of the working population relies on agriculture for sustenance and livelihoods. Indian smallholder farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland represent 78% of the total Indian farmers and produce 41% of the country's food crops. These smallholder farmers are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes due to limited access to technology, infrastructure, markets, and institutional or financial support in the case of adverse climatic events. Baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability will provide useful information for regional-level, and eventually state- and national-level, strategies and policies that promote adaption to climate variability. We use a decade of remote sensing analysis of cropping patterns and climatic factors along with census data for irrigation and demographic factors to understand winter cropping trajectories across agro-ecological zones in India. Findings from multiple agro-ecological zones indicate that there are three primary trajectories in winter cropping in India - increasing, fluctuating, and decreasing. In the Central Indian Highlands, for example, the most dominant trend is that of fluctuating cropped area, ranging between ~37,300 km2 in 2010 and ~21,100 km2 in 2013, which is associated with village-level access to irrigation and local labor dynamics. Clay soil type and increasing irrigation coverage were associated with intensification. Yet, suitable soil type and access to irrigation do not reduce vulnerability to high daytime temperatures that is negatively associated with winter crop cover. With pronounced winter warming projected in the coming decades, effective adaptation by smallholder farmers would require additional strategies, such as access to fine-scale temperature forecasts

  20. Engineering economic analysis of meliponiculture in Malaysia considering current market price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basrawi Firdaus

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Stingless bees (kelulut keeping is now a trend in Malaysia. However, since demand for the source of colony in log is increasing, the log price is rapidly increasing. But, there is no data reported on the economic viability of meliponiculture in the current market price. Thus, the objective of this study is to clarify the economic viability of investment in meliponiculture in the current market price by engineering economic perspective. Investment in meliponiculture was analysed using Equivalent Annual Uniform Cost (EAUC, Internal Rate of Return (IRR and Breakeven Analysis. A small start-up with 30 units of logs or hives was considered in the analysis. All raw data was acquainted from current Malaysian market price, but only revenue from honey was considered. It was found that EAUC indicated that the annual worth of the log system is 23% better than the hive system. However, IRR calculation indicated that both the log and the hive systems offer margin exceeding 55% which is a very good return in general investment. In addition, it was also found that the log system had breakeven after 8th month, whereas the hive was 13th month. Better economic value could be obtained if revenue from by-products are considered. Thus, it can be concluded that meliponiculture is still very economically viable in Malaysia market trend, and the hive systems could be a better choice if splitting colony, maintenance, safety and aesthetics points of view are considered.

  1. Multi-agent agro-economic simulation of irrigation water demand with climate services for climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Balbi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Farmers’ irrigation practices play a crucial role in the sustainability of crop production and water consumption, and in the way they deal with the current and future effects of climate change. In this study, a system dynamic multi-agent model adopting the soil water balance provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56 was developed to explore how farmers’ decision making may affect future water needs and use with a focus on the role of climate services, i.e. forecasts and insurance. A climatic projection record representing the down-scaled A1B market scenario (a balance across all sources of the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC is used to produce future daily data about relative humidity, precipitation, temperature and wind speed. Two types of meteorological services are made available: i a bi-weekly bulletin; and ii seasonal forecasts. The precision of these services was altered to represent different conditions, from perfect knowledge to poor forecasts. Using the available forecasts, farming agents take adaptation decisions concerning crop allocation and irrigation management on the basis of their own risk attitudes. Farmers’ attitudes are characterized by fuzzy classifications depending on age, relative income and crop profitability. Farming agents’ adaptation decisions directly affect the crop and irrigation parameters, which in turn affect future water needs on a territorial level. By incorporating available and future meteorological services, the model allows the farmer’s decision making-process to be explored together with the consequent future irrigation water demand for the period 2015 to 2030. The model prototype is applied to a data set of the Venice Lagoon Watershed, an area of 2038 km2 in north-east Italy, for a preliminary test of its performance and to design future development objectives.

  2. Current economic downturn and supply chain : The significance of demand and inventory smoothing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cannella, S.; Ashayeri, J.; Miranda, P.A.; Bruccoleri, M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this article is to analyse and quantify the effects of demand and inventory smoothing into supply-chain performance, facing the extreme volatility and impetuous alteration of the market produced by the current economic recession. To do so, we model a traditional serial three-stage supply

  3. Evidence of current impact of climate change on life : A walk from genes to the biosphere

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Penuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Roma; Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Barbeta, Adria; Rivas-Ubach, Albert; Llusia, Joan; Garbulsky, Martin; Filella, Iolanda; Jump, Alistair S.

    We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of

  4. The economics of climate change the stern report one year on

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godard, O.

    2007-01-01

    In this article Olivier Godard, a specialist in environmental issues, looks back at the Stern Report on the economics of climate change, which was commissioned by the British government and published at the fall 2006. Having first recalled the general background to the report with regard to global warming and the lively debate that it generated, Godard sets it in perspective. He starts by describing the overall methodology and the main ideas in the Stern Report: a strong warning (that-without swift and decisive action to deal with the problem, the growth in human activities will cause serious, large-scale upheavals in this century and the next) coupled with an optimistic view (that nothing is inevitable provided that action is indeed swift, decisive and properly co-ordinated internationally, and the cost is relatively moderate). He puts figures to an evaluation of the damage to the environment suggested in various scenarios for the period up to 2200, as well as calculations showing that the feared climate change catastrophe is not unavoidable. He summarizes the policy recommendations offered in the Stern Report, emphasizing in passing that even the toughest policies cannot overcome all the problems. Godard goes on to discuss the key issue in the controversy that divides economists: what level to set the discount rate. He first describes the way this rate is calculated and then shows how the choices involved reflect above all the ethical trade-off with regard to the treatment of future generations and how the hypotheses underlying the economic evaluations of the impacts of climate change are far from being as scientifically objective as they claim to be. The Stern Report, he concludes, will at least have had the merit of bringing greater transparency in this regard and, despite certain limitations, it will have demonstrated the urgent need for co-ordinated action at global level to tackle climate change. (author)

  5. For few degrees more... Our economic choices faced with climate risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perthuis, Ch. de

    2009-01-01

    While global warming calls for urgent decisions, the world's economy entry in the worst post-war recession ever has provoked contrasting reactions among economists: some recommend a 'green' re-launching financed by public contribution, while others, on the contrary, would foresee a softening of the environmental constraints weighting down on companies in order to facilitate the activity bounce. However, another growth is possible if one can sustainably change the rules of the economic game. This is the stake of this book. Starting from the principle that the atmosphere usage must not be free any longer, the author shows that the introduction of an international carbon price would allow to massively reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. This was one of the major goal of the Copenhagen conference on climates. Beyond this step, the author shows us the economical road-map of the decade to come in the framework of the fight against climate change. Singling out a realistic and responsible approach, the author straightforwardly answers the main questions put to political leaders: what are the foundations necessary to build up a new energy deal at the international scale? How to conciliate the fight against tropical deforestation and the security of food supplies? To what conditions southern countries will accept to take their share of responsibilities? How populations and territories can adapt to the climate changes of the 21. century? This book proposes concrete means to answer the climate change challenge and to reinforce at the same time our cooperation with southern countries. (J.S.)

  6. Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S J; Botzen, Wouter J W

    2017-01-01

    Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed.

  7. The Uncontrolled Economic Engine of the Developing Economies, Speeding up the Climate Shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, K. M.; Khan, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    As we progress into the 21st century, the world faces challenges of truly global nature bearing implications on the whole world in one way or another. The global economic engine has shifted from the western world (Developed Economies) to the eastern world (Developing Economies) which has brought about tremendous change in the climate related variables in this part of the world. As uncontrolled carbon emissions grow in the developing economies, the phenomenon of global warming and climate shifts become more and more prevalent. While this economic activity provides income for millions of households, it is contributing generously to the rapid degradation of the environment. Developing economies as it has been seen do not employ or abide by stringent regulations regarding emissions which result in uncontrolled emissions. In this particular scenario, it is a tedious task to convince governments in the developing economies to implement regulations regarding emissions because businesses in these economies deem such regulations to be economically unviable. The other side of the problem is that these uncontrolled emission are causing evident climate shifts which has had adverse impacts on the agricultural societies where shifting climates are leading to reduced agricultural output and productivity. Consequently the lives of millions associated directly or indirectly with agriculture are affected and on a more global level, the agricultural produce is decreasing which increases the chances of famine in parts of the world. The situation could have devastating impacts on the global economy and environmental standards and therefore needs to be addressed on emergency basis. The first step towards betterment could be the introduction of the carbon trading economy in the developing economies which would incentivize emission reduction and become more attractive and in the process sustaining minimum possible damage to the environment. Though carbon trading is a formidable first step

  8. Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haer, T.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge; Cusell, Carline; Ward, P.J.

    2017-01-01

    Economic losses as a result of natural hazards have been rising over the past few decades due to socio-economic development and perhaps climate change. This upwards trend is projected to continue, highlighting the need for adequate adaptation strategies. This raises the question of how to determine

  9. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

    KAUST Repository

    Wilson, S. K.

    2010-02-26

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

  10. US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

    2017-12-01

    This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

  11. The economics of energy policy in China. Implications for global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhongxiang Zhang [Groningen Univ., Dept. of Economics and Public Finance, Groningen (Netherlands)]|[Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Centre for Environment and Development, Beijing (China)

    1998-08-01

    This book is the first systematic and comprehensive attempt to deal with the economic implications of carbon abatement for the Chinese economy in the light of the economics of climate change. The book provides 1) an analysis of the Chinese energy system in order to shed light on its implications for China`s future CO{sub 2} emissions; 2) a macroeconomic analysis of CO{sub 2} emission limits for China, using a newly-developed computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy; and 3) a cost-effective analysis of carbon abatement options in China`s electricity sector by means of a technology-oriented dynamic optimization model. (UK)

  12. Four essays on the economics of climate change - with a supplement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torvanger, A.

    1993-01-01

    Climate change has been a main environmental issue over the last decade. The atmospheric concentration of some trace gases are increased through various human activities. Some of these trace gases, the greenhouse gases (GHGs), are transparent to incoming solar radiation, but absorb the infrared radiation from the Earth's surface. Through this mechanism the GHGs are able to induce global warming and climate change, even if their concentration is relatively low. The essays of this dissertation relate to different aspects of the climate change issue. The first essay and the supplement analyze the carbon dioxide emission sources and the distribution of emissions. In the first essay, ''Manufacturing sector carbon dioxide emissions in nine OECD countries 1973-87'', the relation between carbon dioxide emissions in manufacturing and output, structure, energy source mix and technology is discussed. In the supplement, ''Global, regional and national carbon dioxide emissions 1949-86'', the geographical distribution and time series of emissions are described. The next three essays relate to various aspects of climate policy. In ''An optimal growth model for Norway with a carbon dioxide emissions constraint'', the focus is on the economic consequences of an emissions abatement policy implemented as a carbon tax on fossil fuels. The topic of the subsequent essay, ''Efficient contracts in a game of nations pursuing greenhouse gas emissions abatement'', is the design and enforcement by a policing institution of efficient contracts to reduce GHG emissions under country moral hazard. Finally, in the last essay, ''Uncertain change in an intergenerational planning model'', some long-term aspects of climate policy such as intergenerational equity and uncertainty are analyzed

  13. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  14. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Tuna Fisheries in Fiji Islands and Kiribati

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaheim, Asbjoern; Sygna, Linda

    2000-06-01

    This paper discusses the possible economic consequences of a change in the tuna fisheries in the Pacific Ocean resulting from climate change. On the background of Lehodey's (2000) study of potential changes in the tuna fisheries, we survey possible economic impacts in terms of quantities and values and give examples of macroeconomic impacts. The two main effects of climate change on tuna fishing are likely to be a decline in the total stock and a migration of the stock westwards. This will lead to various changes in the catch in different countries. The price of the fish in the export market may also change as a result. The Pacific islands are generally dependent on fisheries, and may therefore be vulnerable to these changes, although some will probably gain while others will lose. Based on a very simple macroeconomic model, it is shown that the resulting effects for the national economy in general may diverge substantially from the expected. This applies, in particular, if the national economies are inflexible and a large part of the population relies on subsistence production, which is the case for many developing countries. (author)

  15. THE SOCIAL-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE CLIMATE CHANGES IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe ZAMAN

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The social-economic implication of climatic changes in Romania are analysed under the following viewpoints: causes and effects; prevention and abatement; adjustment; institutional aspects of environmental management. The main reason of climatic changes is generated by the greenhouse effect (GE that determines the heating of the terrestrial surface, melt-down of icebergs, tornados, draughts and flooding more frequently and of increasing intensity. These extreme meteorological phenomena determine, over time, increasing human and material losses, which imposes measures with effects on short-, medium- and long-term for diminishing the greenhouse effect in accordance with the commitments and provisions of the Kyoto Protocol and the requirements for the sustainable development of the country. Proposals are made with respect to integrating environmental issues into economic and social development strategies, emphasising the need for increasing environment financing and attaching more importance to the Ministry of Environment which must couple its policy with the acquis communautaire and the EU programme for combating and preventing GE impact.

  16. Is Planetary-Scale High Tech Civilization Climatically Sustainable?: The Geophysics v Economics Paradigm War

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffert, M.

    2012-12-01

    Climate/energy policy is gridlocked between (1) a geophysics perspective revealing long-term instabilities from continued energy consumption growth, of which the fossil fuel greenhouse an early symptom; and (2) short-term, fossil-fuel energized-rapid-economic-growth-driven policies likely adaptive for hunter-gatherers competing for scarce food, but climatically fatal to planetary-scale economies dependent on agriculture and "energy slaves." Incorporating social science into climate/energy policy formulation has focused on integrated assessment models (IAMs) exploring scenarios (parallel universes making different social choices) depicting the evolution of GDP, energy consumed, the energy technology mixture, land use, greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, and radiative forcing). Representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios developed for the IPCC AR5 report imply 5-10 degree C warming from fossil fuel burning unless unprecedentedly fast decarbonization rates ~ 7 %/yr are implemented from 2020 to 2100. A massive transition to carbon neutrality by midcentury is needed to keep warming use continues growing at 2%/year, fossil-fuel-greenhouse level warming would be generated by heat rejecting in only 200-300 years underscoring that sustainability implies a steady state planetary economy (FIG.2). Evolutionary psychology and neuroeconomics are emergent disciplines that may illuminate the physical v social science paradigm conflict threatening human survivability.

  17. Assessing climate change and socio-economic uncertainties in long term management of water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Dawson, Richard; Walsh, Claire; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Glenis, Vassilis

    2015-04-01

    Long term management of water resources is challenging for decision makers given the range of uncertainties that exist. Such uncertainties are a function of long term drivers of change, such as climate, environmental loadings, demography, land use and other socio economic drivers. Impacts of climate change on frequency of extreme events such as drought make it a serious threat to water resources and water security. The release of probabilistic climate information, such as the UKCP09 scenarios, provides improved understanding of some uncertainties in climate models. This has motivated a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties in order to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to future uncertainty and identify adaptation options that are as far as possible robust. We have developed and coupled a system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system. This integrated model has been applied in the Thames catchment which supplies the city of London, UK. This region is one of the driest in the UK and hence sensitive to water availability. In addition, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the UK and plays an important economic role. Key uncertainties in long term water resources in the Thames catchment, many of which result from earth system processes, are identified and quantified. The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a combination of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity testing. The analysis shows considerable uncertainty in future rainfall, river flow and consequently water resource. For example, results indicate that by the 2050s, low flow (Q95) in the Thames catchment will range from -44 to +9% compared with the control scenario (1970s). Consequently, by the 2050s the average number of drought days are expected to increase 4-6 times relative to the 1970s. Uncertainties associated with urban growth increase these risks further

  18. The economics of ecosystems and biodiversity, REDD+ and climate change in mangrove ecosystems of Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiberto Pollisco

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Mangroves are trees and shrubs that grow in saline coastal habitats. They occupy large stretches of the sub-tropical and tropical coastlines around the world. They not only provide valuable goods such as timber, fish and medicinal plants but also vital ecological services, such as prevention of coastal erosion. They also help buffer coastal communities from storms and floods. During the ASEAN Conference on Biodiversity held in Singapore in 2009, Ellison reported that mangrove forests in South East Asia are among the highest biodiversity resources in the world, occupying an area of 60.9 x 102 km2. Unfortunately, the region also has the highest rates of mangrove loss in the world, losing 628 km2 per year in two decades. In many parts of the world, where mangrove forests have been cleared, there are now problems of erosion and siltation, and loss of life and property have occurred due to destructive hurricanes, storms and tsunamis. The complex relationship between climate change and mangrove ecosystems can be seen from two different angles. On the one hand, mangrove ecosystems have a critical function in combating climate change; on the other hand, they are affected by climate change. The values of ecosystems vary according to local biophysical and ecological circumstances and the social, economic and cultural context. Intangible values, which may be reflected in society’s willingness to pay to conserve particular species or landscapes, or to protect common resources, must be considered alongside more tangible values such as food or timber to provide a complete economic picture. This has important implications for mangrove conservation strategies and suggests that the preservation of contiguous areas is preferable to patches that are spatially dispersed.

  19. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle M. CÔTÉ, Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles. We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consumption rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1: 1–8, 2012].

  20. The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

    2012-04-01

    This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

  1. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  2. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  3. Economics and handling perspectives, more than an energy levy. An essay on the contribution economics can provide to solving climate problems with regard to the BsIK project The Matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Bruyn, S. Themaleider Milieu-Economie CE Delft

    2010-10-01

    The Matrix is a multi-annual trans-disciplinary project of the Dutch Bsik program 'Klimaat voor ruimte' (Climate for space)that focuses on developing trading perspectives for the climate crisis in a collaboration between climate science, economy, spatial planning and social sciences. CE Delft addressed the economic component of this project. In this essay, the author sketches the interface between economic sciences and the climate issue. [nl

  4. Review of economic and energy sector implications of adopting global climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novak, M.H.

    1997-12-31

    This paper summarizes a number of studies examining potential economic impacts of global climate change policies. Implications for the United States as a whole, the U.S. energy sector, the U.S. economy, businesses and consumers, and world economies are considered. Impact assessments are performed of U.S. carbon emissions, carbon taxes, and carbon restrictions by comparing estimates from various organizations. The following conclusions were made from the economic studies: (1) the economic cost of carbon abatement is expensive; (2) the cost of unilateral action is very expensive with little quantifiable evidence that global emissions are reduced; (3) multilateral actions of developed countries are also very expensive, but there is quantifiable evidence of global emissions reductions; and (4) global actions have only been theoretically addressed. Paralleling these findings, the energy analyses show that the U.S. is technologically unprepared to give up fossil fuels. As a result: (1) carbon is not stabilized without a high tax, (2) stabilization of carbon is elusive, (3) technology is the only long-term answer, and (4) targeted programs may be appropriate to force technology development. 8 tabs.

  5. EVOLUTION OF THE ROMANIAN RESIDENTIAL MARKET AFTER OUTBREAK OF THE CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şteliac Nela

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The residential market is one of the market sectors seriously affected by the current economic and financial crisis. This is mirrored both in the fall of real estate trading prices and in the decreased number of transactions and cutback of newly built constructions. This trend is applicable to the entire spectrum of the residential market (luxury properties and homes destined to average-income customers. Romania is no exception from this European and world-wide state of affairs. This paper aims to briefly outline the trends on the Romanian residential market in the aftermath of the current crisis.

  6. Essays on the Economics of Climate Change, Biofuel and Food Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seguin, Charles

    Climate change is likely to be the most important global pollution problem that humanity has had to face so far. In this dissertation, I tackle issues directly and indirectly related to climate change, bringing my modest contribution to the body of human creativity trying to deal with climate change. First, I look at the impact of non-convex feedbacks on the optimal climate policy. Second, I try to derive the optimal biofuel policy acknowledging the potential negative impacts that biofuel production might have on food supply. Finally, I test empirically for the presence of loss aversion in food purchases, which might play a role in the consumer response to food price changes brought about by biofuel production. Non-convexities in feedback processes are increasingly found to be important in the climate system. To evaluate their impact on the optimal greenhouse gas (GHG) abate- ment policy, I introduce non-convex feedbacks in a stochastic pollution control model. I numerically calibrate the model to represent the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global climate change. This approach makes two contributions to the literature. First, it develops a framework to tackle stochastic non-convex pollu- tion management problems. Second, it applies this framework to the problem of climate change. This approach is in contrast to most of the economic literature on climate change that focuses either on linear feedbacks or environmental thresholds. I find that non-convex feedbacks lead to a decision threshold in the optimal mitigation policy, and I characterize how this threshold depends on feedback parameters and stochasticity. There is great hope that biofuel can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel. However, there are some concerns that biofuel would increase food prices. In an optimal control model, a co-author and I look at the optimal biofuel production when it competes for land with food production. In addition oil is not

  7. The Importance of Considering the Temporal Distribution of Climate Variables for Ecological-Economic Modeling to Calculate the Consequences of Climate Change for Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plegnière, Sabrina; Casper, Markus; Hecker, Benjamin; Müller-Fürstenberger, Georg

    2014-05-01

    The basis of many models to calculate and assess climate change and its consequences are annual means of temperature and precipitation. This method leads to many uncertainties especially at the regional or local level: the results are not realistic or too coarse. Particularly in agriculture, single events and the distribution of precipitation and temperature during the growing season have enormous influences on plant growth. Therefore, the temporal distribution of climate variables should not be ignored. To reach this goal, a high-resolution ecological-economic model was developed which combines a complex plant growth model (STICS) and an economic model. In this context, input data of the plant growth model are daily climate values for a specific climate station calculated by the statistical climate model (WETTREG). The economic model is deduced from the results of the plant growth model STICS. The chosen plant is corn because corn is often cultivated and used in many different ways. First of all, a sensitivity analysis showed that the plant growth model STICS is suitable to calculate the influences of different cultivation methods and climate on plant growth or yield as well as on soil fertility, e.g. by nitrate leaching, in a realistic way. Additional simulations helped to assess a production function that is the key element of the economic model. Thereby the problems when using mean values of temperature and precipitation in order to compute a production function by linear regression are pointed out. Several examples show why a linear regression to assess a production function based on mean climate values or smoothed natural distribution leads to imperfect results and why it is not possible to deduce a unique climate factor in the production function. One solution for this problem is the additional consideration of stress indices that show the impairment of plants by water or nitrate shortage. Thus, the resulting model takes into account not only the ecological

  8. Regional economic impacts of current and proposed management alternatives for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koontz, Lynne; Sexton, Natalie; Ishizaki, Asuka; Ritten, John

    2013-01-01

    The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan (CCP). The CCP must describe the desired future conditions of a refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. Charles M. Russell (CMR) National Wildlife Refuge, located in north-central Montana, is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the CCP. The CCP for the Refuge must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed refuge-management strategies. For refuge CCP planning, an economic analysis provides a means of estimating how current management (No Action Alternative) and proposed management activities (Alternatives) affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of information: (1) it illustrates a refuge’s contribution to the local community; and (2) it can help in determining whether economic effects are or are not a real concern in choosing among management alternatives. It is important to note that the economic value of a refuge encompasses more than just the impacts on the regional economy. Refuges also provide substantial nonmarket values (values for items not exchanged in established markets) such as maintaining endangered species, preserving wetlands, educating future generations, and adding stability to the ecosystem (Carver and Caudill, 2007). However, quantifying these types of nonmarket values is beyond the scope of this study. This report first presents a description of the local community and economy near the Refuge. Next, the methods used to conduct a regional economic impact analysis are described. An analysis of the final CCP management strategies that could affect stakeholders and residents and the local economy is then presented. The refuge management activities of economic concern in this analysis are:

  9. Applying Climate Compatible Development and economic valuation to coastal management: A case study of Kenya's mangrove forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huxham, Mark; Emerton, Lucy; Kairo, James; Munyi, Fridah; Abdirizak, Hassan; Muriuki, Tabitha; Nunan, Fiona; Briers, Robert A

    2015-07-01

    Mangrove forests are under global pressure. Habitat destruction and degradation persist despite longstanding recognition of the important ecological functions of mangroves. Hence new approaches are needed to help stakeholders and policy-makers achieve sound management that is informed by the best science. Here we explore how the new policy concept of Climate Compatible Development (CCD) can be applied to achieve better outcomes. We use economic valuation approaches to combine socio-economic data, projections of forest cover based on quantitative risk mapping and storyline scenario building exercises to articulate the economic consequences of plausible alternative future scenarios for the mangrove forests of the South Kenya coast, as a case study of relevance to many other areas. Using data from 645 household surveys, 10 focus groups and 74 interviews conducted across four mangrove sites, and combining these with information on fish catches taken at three landing sites, a mangrove carbon trading project and published data allowed us to make a thorough (although still partial) economic valuation of the forests. This gave a current value of the South Coast mangroves of USD 6.5 million, or USD 1166 ha(-1), with 59% of this value on average derived from regulating services. Quantitative risk mapping, projecting recent trends over the next twenty years, suggests a 43% loss of forest cover over that time with 100% loss at the most vulnerable sites. Much of the forest lost between 1992 and 2012 has not been replaced by high value alternative land uses hence restoration of these areas is feasible and may not involve large opportunity costs. We invited thirty eight stakeholders to develop plausible storyline scenarios reflecting Business as Usual (BAU) and CCD - which emphasises sustainable forest conservation and management - in twenty years time, drawing on local and regional expert knowledge of relevant policy, social trends and cultures. Combining these scenarios with

  10. Extending to seasonal scales the current usage of short range weather forecasts and climate projections for water management in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Camino, Ernesto; Voces, José; Sánchez, Eroteida; Navascues, Beatriz; Pouget, Laurent; Roldan, Tamara; Gómez, Manuel; Cabello, Angels; Comas, Pau; Pastor, Fernando; Concepción García-Gómez, M.°; José Gil, Juan; Gil, Delfina; Galván, Rogelio; Solera, Abel

    2016-04-01

    This presentation, first, briefly describes the current use of weather forecasts and climate projections delivered by AEMET for water management in Spain. The potential use of seasonal climate predictions for water -in particular dams- management is then discussed more in-depth, using a pilot experience carried out by a multidisciplinary group coordinated by AEMET and DG for Water of Spain. This initiative is being developed in the framework of the national implementation of the GFCS and the European project, EUPORIAS. Among the main components of this experience there are meteorological and hydrological observations, and an empirical seasonal forecasting technique that provides an ensemble of water reservoir inflows. These forecasted inflows feed a prediction model for the dam state that has been adapted for this purpose. The full system is being tested retrospectively, over several decades, for selected water reservoirs located in different Spanish river basins. The assessment includes an objective verification of the probabilistic seasonal forecasts using standard metrics, and the evaluation of the potential social and economic benefits, with special attention to drought and flooding conditions. The methodology of implementation of these seasonal predictions in the decision making process is being developed in close collaboration with final users participating in this pilot experience.

  11. The Phenomenon of Financial Economics: Russia and the World Are in Current Global Turbulence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentine P. Akinina

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the analysis of the current situation on the global financial arena, analyzing the chain of cause and effect of the origins of the economic crisis and providing its possible logical outcomes. We are trying to prove here that the way the world economic situation develops will lead to either further growth or stagnation of national economies and define their position in the global business, financial, and social spheres.

    We provide an analysis of the serious transformations financial economics have been undergoing at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries. All these changes, such as the development of international fusions on financial markets, the creation of new financial instruments, products and services, and others, have been caused largely by (and also have led to significant events in the global political arena. However, regardless of the transformations, world leadership remains in the hands of US government and business and that of their closest partners, while those societies that are not willing to support the “Americanized” world order end up on the blacklist of the World Bank, the IMF, and other international financial institutions.

    Finally, the article provides our views of the possible ways of dealing with the global economic stagnation. We highlight the importance of the strong and careful supervision of any global as well as national financial activities, the education of the public on the issues of wise investments, and the dangers of living on credit.

  12. Influence of watershed topographic and socio-economic attributes on the climate sensitivity of global river water quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Afed U.; Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Zheng, Yi

    2017-10-01

    Surface waters exhibit regionalization due to various climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities. Here we assess the impact of topographic and socio-economic factors on the climate sensitivity of surface water quality, estimated using an elasticity approach (climate elasticity of water quality (CEWQ)), and identify potential risks of instability in different regions and climatic conditions. Large global datasets were used for 12 main water quality parameters from 43 water quality monitoring stations located at large major rivers. The results demonstrated that precipitation elasticity shows higher sensitivity to topographic and socio-economic determinants as compared to temperature elasticity. In tropical climate class (A), gross domestic product (GDP) played an important role in stabilizing the CEWQ. In temperate climate class (C), GDP played the same role in stability, while the runoff coefficient, slope, and population density fuelled the risk of instability. The results implied that watersheds with lower runoff coefficient, thick population density, over fertilization and manure application face a higher risk of instability. We discuss the socio-economic and topographic factors that cause instability of CEWQ parameters and conclude with some suggestions for watershed managers to bring sustainability in freshwater bodies.

  13. An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane de Souza Dias

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change, related to the greenhouse gases emission, impacts hydroelectric power generation mainly due to the increase in air temperature and changes in the precipitation patterns. As a consequence, it affects basin evapotranspiration process, runoff, sediment transport as well as evaporation of reservoirs. This study analysed the current and future Brazilian context of hydroelectric reservoirs and investigated the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and possible mitigation adjustments, giving relevant examples from around the world. Moreover, it is key to consider other factors that influence the availability of water resources such as: (a upstream development of reservoirs, mainly the development of agricultural systems, which can contribute to increased water demand; (b changes in land use, which can have an impact on soil degradation and sediment transport. Hydroelectric dams are a possible alternative to mitigate the impacts of climate change considering that those impacts could generate the need of adaptive actions. The assessment of climate change impacts’ projections anticipates possible future scenarios and can assist in strategic planning together with the definition of adaptive operational policies.

  14. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Vorsino

    Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  15. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  16. Economic and Energy Development in China: Policy Options and Implications for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McElroy, M. B.; Nielsen, C.

    2003-01-23

    The Harvard University Center for the Environment and partner institutions in China established a multidisciplinary program of integrated research on energy-related environmental issues, local air pollution and global climate change, in China and their role in U.S.-Chinese relations. Major research streams included: (a) developing a dynamic, multi-sector model of the Chinese economy that can estimate energy use, emission, and health damages from pollution, and using this model to simulate broad economic effects of market-based pollution-control policies; (b) developing a regionally disaggregated model of technology and investment choice in the Chinese electric power sector; (c) applying an atmospheric chemical tracer transport model to investigate carbon uptake in Eurasis (notably China) and North America, and to inform observational strategies for CO{sub 2} in China and elsewhere.

  17. The models of the future, climatic change and economical scenari: scientifical and political stakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahan Dalmedico, A.

    2007-01-01

    The years 1960-1970 are the opening of a debate, launching by the Club of Rome, on the growth and the limits of the earth resources. This report is at the origin of an intellectual topic based on mathematical simulation, about the today sustainable development. At the end of the years 80, arrives the global warming. After the Rio convention in 1992, a global governmental process is implementing especially with the Kyoto protocol. The hybridization grows up between scientists and politicians. This report presents the different aspects of the problem, scientifical, epidemiological, economical and political. It presents the prospective simulation tools and their political use. It analyzes the implementing of the climatic regime since 1988 and precises the bonds between scientifical expertise and global governance. (A.L.B.)

  18. Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

    2018-03-01

    Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

  19. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  20. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  1. Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Balali

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.

  2. The Economic Discourse of the Current Reform Aimed at Business Optimization in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Purdenko Olena A.

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to study the strengths and weaknesses of the current reforms and provide appropriate recommendations and proposals to improve the regulatory and economic business environment. The article analyzes the introduced reforms in the aspect of the regulatory field and the active current system of taxation with the detailing of the type and content of the basic implemented measures. There have been justified the advantages and disadvantages of the introduced system of taxation with respect to the main budget forming taxes, such as the enterprise income taxes, value added tax, individual income tax considering changes in the administering of unified social tax (UST and war tax, excise duty. On the basis of the results of the study it has been found that the introduced reforms only partially improved the tax administration system and in no way reduced the announced tax burden, the time spending of business for preparing the current report was not significantly reduced.

  3. Negotiation and Optimality in an Economic Model of Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gottinger, H. [International Institute for Environmental Economics and Management IIEEM, University of Maastricht, Maastricht (Netherlands)

    2000-03-01

    The paper addresses the problem of governmental intervention in a multi-country regime of controlling global climate change. Using a simplified case of a two-country, two-sector general equilibrium model the paper shows that the global optimal time path of economic outputs and temperature will converge to a unique steady state provided that consumers care enough about the future. To answer a set of questions relating to 'what will happen if governments decide to correct the problem of global warming?' we study the equilibrium outcome in a bargaining game where two countries negotiate an agreement on future consumption and production plans for the purpose of correcting the problem of climate change. It is shown that the agreement arising from such a negotiation process achieves the best outcome and that it can be implemented in decentralised economies by a system of taxes, subsidies and transfers. By employing the recent advances in non-cooperative bargaining theory, the agreement between two countries is derived endogenously through a well-specified bargaining procedure.

  4. Negotiation and Optimality in an Economic Model of Global Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gottinger, H.

    2000-03-01

    The paper addresses the problem of governmental intervention in a multi-country regime of controlling global climate change. Using a simplified case of a two-country, two-sector general equilibrium model the paper shows that the global optimal time path of economic outputs and temperature will converge to a unique steady state provided that consumers care enough about the future. To answer a set of questions relating to 'what will happen if governments decide to correct the problem of global warming?' we study the equilibrium outcome in a bargaining game where two countries negotiate an agreement on future consumption and production plans for the purpose of correcting the problem of climate change. It is shown that the agreement arising from such a negotiation process achieves the best outcome and that it can be implemented in decentralised economies by a system of taxes, subsidies and transfers. By employing the recent advances in non-cooperative bargaining theory, the agreement between two countries is derived endogenously through a well-specified bargaining procedure

  5. Freedom space for rivers: An economically viable river management concept in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Biron, Pascale M.; Larocque, Marie; Demers, Sylvio; Olsen, Taylor; Choné, Guénolé; Ouellet, Marie-Audray; Cloutier, Claude-André; Desjarlais, Claude; Eyquem, Joanna

    2015-12-01

    The freedom space concept applies hydrogeomorphic principles to delineate zones that are either frequently flooded or actively eroding, or that include riparian wetlands. Freedom space limits mapped for three rivers in southern Quebec (Canada) were assessed to determine whether they would still be valid under a future climate using a sensitivity analysis approach with numerical models predicting mobility of meanders (RVRMeander) and flood stage (HEC-RAS). The freedom space limits were also used in a cost-benefit analysis over a 50-year period where costs consist of loss or limitations to the right of farming and construction in this zone, whereas benefits are avoided costs for existing or future bank stabilization structures and avoided costs of flooding in agricultural areas. The economic value of ecosystem services provided by riparian wetlands and increased buffer zones within the freedom space were also included in the analysis. Results show that freedom space limits would be robust in future climate, and show net present values ranging from CDN0.7 to 3.7 million for the three rivers, with ratios of benefits over costs ranging between 1.5:1 and 4.8:1. River management based on freedom space is thus beneficial for society over a 50-year period.

  6. Response of a multi-stressed Mediterranean river to future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanidis, Konstantinos; Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Mimikou, Maria

    2018-06-15

    Streams and rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems in Europe due to the combined effects of multiple pressures related to anthropogenic activities. Particularly in the Mediterranean region, changes in hydromorphology along with increased nutrient loadings are known to affect the ecological functions and ecosystem services of streams and rivers with the anticipated climate change being likely to further impair their functionality and structure. In this study, we investigated the combined effects of agricultural driven stressors on the ecology and delivered services of the Pinios river basin in Greece under three future world scenarios developed within the EU funded MARS project. Scenarios are based on combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and refer to early century (2030) and mid-century (2060) representing future climate worlds with particular socioeconomic characteristics. To assess the responses of ecological and ecosystem service indicators to the scenarios we first simulated hydrology and water quality in Pinios with a process-based model. Simulated abiotic stressor parameters (predictors) were linked to two biotic indicators, the macroinvertebrate indicators ASPT and EPT, with empirical modelling based on boosted regression trees and general linear models. Our results showed that the techno world scenario driven by fast economic growth and intensive exploitation of energy resources had the largest impact on both the abiotic status (nutrient loads and concentrations in water) and the biotic indicators. In contrast, the predicted changes under the other two future worlds, consensus and fragmented, were more diverse and were mostly dictated by the projected climate. This work showed that the future scenarios, especially the mid-century ones, had significant impact on both abiotic status and biotic responses underpinning the need for implementing catchment management practices able to mitigate the

  7. Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barney, Jacob N.; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    Dedicated biofuel crops, while providing economic and other benefits, may adversely impact biodiversity directly via land use conversion, or indirectly via creation of novel invasive species. To mitigate negative impacts bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) can be used to estimate the potential distribution and suitable habitat based on the climate and distribution in the native range. We used CLIMEX to evaluate the regions of North America suitable for agronomic production, as well as regions potentially susceptible to an invasion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) under both current and future climate scenarios. Model results show that >8.7 million km 2 of North America has suitable to very favorable habitat, most of which occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. The non-native range of western North America is largely unsuitable to switchgrass as a crop or potential weed unless irrigation or permanent water is available. Under both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 climate models and A2 and B2 emissions scenarios, an overall increase in suitable habitat is predicted over the coming century, although the western US remains unsuitable. Our results suggest that much of North America is suitable for switchgrass cultivation, although this is likely to shift north in the coming century. Our results also agree with field collections of switchgrass outside its native range, which indicate that switchgrass is unlikely to establish unless it has access to water throughout the year (e.g., along a stream). Thus, it is the potential invasion of switchgrass into riparian habitats in the West that requires further investigation. (author)

  8. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Regional economic analysis of current and proposed management alternatives for Rappahannock River Valley National Wildlife Refuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koontz, Lynne; Sexton, Natalie; Donovan, Ryan

    2009-01-01

    The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must describe the desired future conditions of a refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. The Rappahannock River Valley National Wildlife Refuge (refuge) is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan for the refuge must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed refuge management strategies. The purpose of this study was to assess the regional economic implications associated with draft Comprehensive Conservation Plan management strategies. Special interest groups and local residents often criticize a change in refuge management, especially if there is a perceived negative impact to the local economy. Having objective data on economic impacts may show that these fears are overstated. Quite often, the extent of economic benefits a refuge provides to a local community is not fully recognized, yet at the same time the effects of negative changes is overstated. Spending associated with refuge recreational activities, such as wildlife viewing and hunting, can generate considerable tourist activity for surrounding communities. Additionally, refuge personnel typically spend considerable amounts of money purchasing supplies in local stores, repairing equipment and purchasing fuel at the local service stations, and reside and spend their salaries in the local community. For refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan planning, a regional economic assessment provides a means of estimating how current management (no action alternative) and proposed management activities (alternatives) could affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of

  10. Is the spatial distribution of mankind's most basic economic traits determined by climate and soil alone?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Jan; Sieber, Andrea

    2010-05-05

    Several authors, most prominently Jared Diamond (1997, Guns, Germs and Steel), have investigated biogeographic determinants of human history and civilization. The timing of the transition to an agricultural lifestyle, associated with steep population growth and consequent societal change, has been suggested to be affected by the availability of suitable organisms for domestication. These factors were shown to quantitatively explain some of the current global inequalities of economy and political power. Here, we advance this approach one step further by looking at climate and soil as sole determining factors. As a simplistic 'null model', we assume that only climate and soil conditions affect the suitability of four basic landuse types - agriculture, sedentary animal husbandry, nomadic pastoralism and hunting-and-gathering. Using ecological niche modelling (ENM), we derive spatial predictions of the suitability for these four landuse traits and apply these to the Old World and Australia. We explore two aspects of the properties of these predictions, conflict potential and population density. In a calculation of overlap of landuse suitability, we map regions of potential conflict between landuse types. Results are congruent with a number of real, present or historical, regions of conflict between ethnic groups associated with different landuse traditions. Furthermore, we found that our model of agricultural suitability explains a considerable portion of population density variability. We mapped residuals from this correlation, finding geographically highly structured deviations that invite further investigation. We also found that ENM of agricultural suitability correlates with a metric of local wealth generation (Gross Domestic Product, Purchasing Power Parity). From simplified assumptions on the links between climate, soil and landuse we are able to provide good predictions on complex features of human geography. The spatial distribution of deviations from ENM

  11. Is the Spatial Distribution of Mankind's Most Basic Economic Traits Determined by Climate and Soil Alone?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Jan; Sieber, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    Background Several authors, most prominently Jared Diamond (1997, Guns, Germs and Steel), have investigated biogeographic determinants of human history and civilization. The timing of the transition to an agricultural lifestyle, associated with steep population growth and consequent societal change, has been suggested to be affected by the availability of suitable organisms for domestication. These factors were shown to quantitatively explain some of the current global inequalities of economy and political power. Here, we advance this approach one step further by looking at climate and soil as sole determining factors. Methodology/Principal Findings As a simplistic ‘null model’, we assume that only climate and soil conditions affect the suitability of four basic landuse types – agriculture, sedentary animal husbandry, nomadic pastoralism and hunting-and-gathering. Using ecological niche modelling (ENM), we derive spatial predictions of the suitability for these four landuse traits and apply these to the Old World and Australia. We explore two aspects of the properties of these predictions, conflict potential and population density. In a calculation of overlap of landuse suitability, we map regions of potential conflict between landuse types. Results are congruent with a number of real, present or historical, regions of conflict between ethnic groups associated with different landuse traditions. Furthermore, we found that our model of agricultural suitability explains a considerable portion of population density variability. We mapped residuals from this correlation, finding geographically highly structured deviations that invite further investigation. We also found that ENM of agricultural suitability correlates with a metric of local wealth generation (Gross Domestic Product, Purchasing Power Parity). Conclusions/Significance From simplified assumptions on the links between climate, soil and landuse we are able to provide good predictions on complex features

  12. An Approach to Modeling Complex Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses to Climate Disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pikas, C. K.; Nix, M.; Ihde, A. G.; Weiss, M.; Simpkins, S.; Fountain, G. H.; Paxton, L. J.

    2011-12-01

    In this paper we describe the application of a proven methodology for modeling the complex social and economic interactions of a system under stress to the issues that are arising and will arise from global climate disruption. There is a long history in the Defense community of using what are known as strategic simulations or "wargames" to model the complex interactions between the environment, people, resources, infrastructure and the economy in a competitive environment. We describe in this paper, work that we have done on understanding how this heritage can be repurposed to help us explore how the complex interplay between climate disruption and our socio/political and economic structures will affect our future. These strategic simulations would be done under the auspices of the GAIA project (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu). While these simulations cannot definitively predict what will happen, they do illuminate non-linear feedbacks between human choices and the environment. These simulations can be focused on the global, regional, or local environment and capture the various actors (governments, agencies, resources, industries, religious/political groups, etc.) that compete to achieve their particular goals. We note that these simulations are not "zero sum" games - there need not be a winner and a loser. They are, however, competitive influence games: they represent the tools that a nation, state, faction or group has at its disposal to influence policy (diplomacy), finances, industry (economy), infrastructure, information, etc to achieve their particular goals. In the simulation, humans play various roles and understand that not everyone shares the same definition of a successful or favorable outcome. Rigorous post-analysis is used to illuminate where decisions were made that enabled or prevented a particular outcome from occurring. In addition, the simulations allow us to investigate how effective "technology injects" can be in achieving a particular, desired end

  13. Feasible climate targets. The roles of economic growth, coalition development and expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Richels, Richard G.; Rutherford, Thomas F.

    2009-01-01

    The analysis presented here follows the design specified by the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) Transition Scenarios study on achieving climate stabilization goals with delayed participation by developing countries. We use the MERGE model to evaluate the core EMF scenarios for both the international and the US-specific studies. Our results indicate that a radiative forcing target equivalent to 450 ppmv CO 2 -e cannot be met even allowing for full participation and overshoot during the entire 21st century. With delayed participation of developing countries, a target of 550 ppmv CO 2 -e is only attainable with pessimistic assumptions about economic growth, and even then only at very high cost. A target of 650 ppmv CO 2 -e can be met with delayed participation for a more affordable cost. We highlight sensitivities to the core scenarios in two key dimensions: (1) the effect of the unfolding global financial crisis on the rate of economic growth and (2) the willingness of initially non-participating countries to agree at the beginning of the next commitment period (i.e. 2012) to join the coalition at a pre-specified date in the future. We find that while the recession does not fundamentally change the crucial role of developing country involvement, advance agreement on their part to future targets could substantially reduce costs for all countries. (author)

  14. Energy and Economic Evaluation of Green Roofs for Residential Buildings in Hot-Humid Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abubakar S. Mahmoud

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Green roofs may be considered a passive energy saving technology that also offer benefits like environmental friendliness and enhancement of aesthetic and architectural qualities of buildings. This paper examines the energy and economic viability of the green roof technology in the hot humid climate of Saudi Arabia by considering a modern four bedroom residential building in the city of Dhahran as a case study. The base case and green roof modelling of the selected building has been developed with the help of DesignBuilder software. The base case model has been validated with the help of 3-month measured data about the energy consumption without a green roof installed. The result shows that the energy consumption for the base case is 169 kWh/m2 while the energy consumption due to the application of a green roof on the entire roof surface is 110 kWh/m2. For the three investigated green roof options, energy saving is found to be in the range of 24% to 35%. The economic evaluation based on the net present value (NPV approach for 40 years with consideration to other environmental advantages indicates that the benefits of the green roof technology are realized towards the end of the life cycle of the building.

  15. High temperature solar heating and cooling systems for different Mediterranean climates: Dynamic simulation and economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calise, Francesco

    2012-01-01

    The paper presents a dynamic model of an innovative solar heating and cooling system (SHC) based on the coupling of Parabolic Trough Collectors (PTC) with a double-stage LiBr-H 2 O absorption chiller; auxiliary energy for both heating and cooling is supplied by a biomass-fired heater. The system layout also includes a number of additional components such as: cooling tower, pumps, heat exchangers, etc. The consumption of non-renewable energy resources is only due to the small amount of electrical energy consumed by some auxiliary device. A case study is presented, in which the SHC provides space heating and cooling and domestic hot water for a small university hall, all year long. Both the SHC system and the building were dynamically simulated in TRNSYS. In order to evaluate the performance of the investigated system in various climatic conditions, the analyses were performed for seven Mediterranean cities in Italy, Spain, Egypt, France, Greece and Turkey. The analysis was also performed for a similar SHC in which the biomass heater was replaced by a gas-fired heater, in order to evaluate the influence of biomass to the overall system economic and energetic performance. In addition, a parametric analysis was performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the results, when varying some of the main design and operating parameters, such as: collector field area, tank volume and set-point temperatures. The results showed that the SHC system layout investigated can be competitive for the majority of the locations analysed, although the economic profitability is higher for the hottest climates. - Highlights: → In the high temperature SHC system the auxiliary heat is provided by biomass. → The energetic performance of the system is excellent during the summer. → In the winter the system suffers of the low beam radiation incident on the PTC. → The Simple Pay Back Period is encouraging, particularly in case of public funding. → An increase of the solar field

  16. Political economy constraints on carbon pricing policies: What are the implications for economic efficiency, environmental efficacy, and climate policy design?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, Jesse D.

    2014-01-01

    Economists traditionally view a Pigouvian fee on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, either via carbon taxes or emissions caps and permit trading (“cap-and-trade”), as the economically optimal or “first-best” policy to address climate change-related externalities. Yet several political economy factors can severely constrain the implementation of these carbon pricing policies, including opposition of industrial sectors with a concentration of assets that would lose considerable value under such policies; the collective action nature of climate mitigation efforts; principal agent failures; and a low willingness-to-pay for climate mitigation by citizens. Real-world implementations of carbon pricing policies can thus fall short of the economically optimal outcomes envisioned in theory. Consistent with the general theory of the second-best, the presence of binding political economy constraints opens a significant “opportunity space” for the design of creative climate policy instruments with superior political feasibility, economic efficiency, and environmental efficacy relative to the constrained implementation of carbon pricing policies. This paper presents theoretical political economy frameworks relevant to climate policy design and provides corroborating evidence from the United States context. It concludes with a series of implications for climate policy making and argues for the creative pursuit of a mix of second-best policy instruments. - Highlights: • Political economy constraints can bind carbon pricing policies. • These constraints can prevent implementation of theoretically optimal carbon prices. • U.S. household willingness-to-pay for climate policy likely falls in the range of $80–$200 per year. • U.S. carbon prices may be politically constrained to as low as $2–$8 per ton of CO 2 . • An opportunity space exists for improvements in climate policy design and outcomes

  17. Guidebook for territories' support in the analysis of their socio-economical vulnerability to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The work of the inter-ministerial group 'Impacts of Climate Change, Adaptation and Associated Costs for France', which met between March 2007 and October 2009, led to a sector-based assessment of all climate change related impacts and of associated adaptation measures. The aim was to obtain quantified elements that could underpin public policy decision-making and especially development of the National Adaptation Plan. While the sectoral analyses focused on quantifying the costs of adaptation, the approach of the 'Territories' group, co-steered by the Datar (regional development delegation) and Ademe (agency for energy management and environment), addressed the subject of interactions between players and activities, both spatial (sharing of resources between different uses, etc.) and temporal (transition from one situation to another, etc.) and the corresponding means for adjustment. It was in this context that the SOeS proposed a methodology for diagnosis of the socio-economic vulnerability of a given sub-national territory in the face of climate change. This document provides a broad-brush outline of the accompanying guidelines developed by Sogreah Consultants SAS for use by local players. A three step approach is followed to draw up the vulnerability profile of a territory: 1 - characterising the territory by the identification of the priority activities and physical features; 2 - using the analysis tools to produce a matrix of indices of vulnerability to climate change per hazard; 3 - drawing up an initial vulnerability profile by bringing together the information from the matrix and that from feedback, either by activity or group of activities, or by environment, depending on aims. The profile leads to identification of the important issues as well as allowing identification of potential impacts to be studied in more depth. Guidelines were tested in three pilot territories facing different climate change issues: Wateringues, in the Nord - Pas-de-Calais region

  18. The Current Business and Economics Driven Discourse and Education: Perspectives from Around the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes L van der Walt

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper sets the tone for the 2017 BCES Conference in that it confronts the educators and educationists assembled at the opening ceremony with some of the manifestations of the current business and economics driven orientation to life in general and to education in particular. It demonstrates how and to what extent the neoliberal life-view or orientation has so far colonized the minds of educators and educationists and affected their occupational environment. The paper concludes with a brief critical discussion of neoliberal tenets and their effects on education based on professional pedagogical insight into the human being, societal relationships and education.

  19. Economic impacts of climate change: Methods of estimating impacts at an aggregate level using Hordaland as an illustration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaheim, Asbjoern

    2003-01-01

    This report discusses methods for calculating economic impacts of climate change, and uses Hordaland county in Norway as an illustrative example. The calculations are based on estimated climate changes from the RegClim project. This study draws from knowledge of the relationship between economic activity and climate at a disaggregate level and calculates changes in production of and demand for goods and services within aggregate sectors, which are specified in the county budget for Hordaland. Total impacts for the county thus are expressed through known values from the national budget, such as the county's ''national product'', total consumption, and investments. The estimates of impacts of climate changes at a disaggregate level in Hordaland are quantified only to small degree. The calculations made in this report can thus only be considered appropriate for illustrating methods and interpretations. In terms of relative economic significance for the county, however, it is likely that the hydropower sector will be the most affected. Increased precipitation will result in greater production potential, but profitability will largely depend on projected energy prices and investment costs associated with expansion. Agriculture and forestry will increase their production potential, but they are relatively small sectors in the county. Compared with the uncertainty about how climate change will affect production, however, the uncertainty about changes in demand is far greater. The demand for personal transportation and construction in particular can have significant consequences for the county's economy. (author)

  20. Engaging farmers on climate risk through targeted integration of bio-economic modelling and seasonal climate forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nidumolu, U.B.; Lubbers, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Kadiyala, D.M.; Sreenivas, G.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) can be used to identify appropriate risk management strategies and to reduce the sensitivity of rural industries and communities to climate risk. However, these forecasts have low utility among farmers in agricultural decision making, unless translated into a

  1. Wildfire Impacts Upon US Air Quality for Current and Future Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B. K.; Tao, I.; Avise, J. C.; Stavros, E. N.; Strand, T. T.; McKenzie, D.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Wildfires can have an important impact on regional air quality as they are large and intermittent sources of primary particulates, secondary aerosols, and ozone precursors. As part of an ongoing analysis on the effects of global change upon US air quality, we report results for current and future decade simulations of the inter-relationship among climate change, wildfires and air quality. The results are reported for the Northwest, Southwest, and Central Rockies regions of the US. Meteorological fields from the ECHAM5 global climate model for the IPCC A1B scenario were downscaled using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, a stochastic fire occurrence model, Fire Simulation Builder (FSB), and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone and aerosol concentrations. Simulations were completed for two nested domains covering most of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America at 220 km horizontal resolution (hemispheric domain) and covering the continental US at 36 km resolution (CONUS). Sensitivity studies were conducted for representative summer periods with fire occurrence generated from FSB within the current (1995-2004) and future decade (2045-2054) and using current decade historical fire data obtained from the Bureau of Land Management Database. Results are reported in terms of the effects of global change upon fire occurrence, fire plume transport and PM and ozone pollutant levels.

  2. Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johansson, D.J.A.; Lucas, P.L.; Weitzel, M.; Ahlgren, E.O.; Bazaz, A.B.; Chen, W.; den Elzen, M.G.J.; Ghosh, J.; Grahn, M.; Liang, Q.M.; Peterson, S.; Pradhan, B.K.; van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; Shukla, P.R.; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Wei, Y.M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national

  3. The economic impacts of climate change on the Chilean agricultural sector: A non-linear agricultural supply model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Ponce

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades, with impacts threatening agricultural production in general and food security in particular. Within this context, climate change will impose a challenge to policy makers, especially in those countries that based their development on primary sectors. In this paper we present a non-linear agricultural supply model for the analysis of the economic impacts of changes in crop yields due to climate change. The model accounts for uncertainty through the use of Monte Carlo simulations about crop yields. According to our results, climate change impacts on the Chilean agricultural sector are widespread, with considerable distributional consequences across regions, and with fruits producers being worst-off than crops producers. In general, the results reported here are consistent with those reported by previous studies showing large economic impacts on the northern zone. However, our model does not simulate remarkable economic consequences at the country level as previous studies did.

  4. Economic modeling of effects of climate change on the forest sector and mitigation options: a compendium of briefing papers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph J. Alig

    2010-01-01

    This report is a compilation of six briefing papers based on literature reviews and syntheses, prepared for U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service policy analysts and decisionmakers about specific questions pertaining to climate change. The main topics addressed here are economic effects on the forest sector at the national and global scales, costs of forest...

  5. Water allocation under future climate change and socio-economic development : the case of Pearl River Basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Dan

    2017-01-01

    Water shortage has become a major challenge in many parts of the world due to climate change and socio-economic development. Allocating water is critical to meet human and ecosystem needs in these regions now and in the future. However, water allocation is being challenged by uncertainties

  6. Simulating the Current Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

    2017-12-01

    The water cycle is a critical component of the current Mars climate system, and it is now widely recognized that water ice clouds significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes are key to implementing clouds in a Mars global climate model (GCM): the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on atmospheric heating/cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the atmospheric dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress using the NASA Ames Mars GCM to simulate the current-day water cycle with radiatively active clouds. Cloud fields from our baseline simulation are in generally good agreement with observations. The predicted seasonal extent and peak IR optical depths are consistent MGS/TES observations. Additionally, the thermal response to the clouds in the aphelion cloud belt (ACB) is generally consistent with observations and other climate model predictions. Notably, there is a distinct gap in the predicted clouds over the North Residual Cap (NRC) during local summer, but the clouds reappear in this simulation over the NRC earlier than the observations indicate. Polar clouds are predicted near the seasonal CO2 ice caps, but the column thicknesses of these clouds are generally too thick compared to observations. Our baseline simulation is dry compared to MGS/TES-observed water vapor abundances, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. These areas of disagreement appear to be a consistent with other current water cycle GCMs. Future avenues of investigation will target improving our understanding of what controls the vertical extent of clouds and the apparent seasonal evolution of cloud particle sizes within the ACB.

  7. ECOLOGY-ECONOMICAL ASSESSMENT OF NEW RECLAMATION METHOD FOR CURRENTLY WORKING TECHNOGENIC MASSIFS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Strizhenok

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most relevant problems of the mining industry is the need to reduce the negative impact of technogenic massifs formed by wastes of extraction and processing of mineral raw materials. This problem has a significant meaning for currently used massifs, because traditional ways of reclamation are not suitable for them. The article describes the results of a scientific study on the development of the most efficient reclamation method for currently used technogenic massifs. Described in detail the main results of the field observations, methods and equipment of laboratory experiments conducted to determine agro-chemical properties of the soil and optimal composition of binder agent. The article also provides ecological and economic assessment of the proposed method of reclamation. The study was conducted on the example of the real technogenic massif, formed by wastes of phosphorus ore processing.

  8. Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reilly, J.; Paltsev, S.; Felzer, B.; Wang, X.; Kicklighter, D.; Melillo, J.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.; Sokolov, A.; Wang, C.

    2007-01-01

    Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected, there can be important economic consequences. We examine the combined effects of changes in climate, increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and changes in tropospheric ozone on crop, pasture, and forest lands and the consequences for the global and regional economies. We examine scenarios where there is limited or little effort to control these substances, and policy scenarios that limit emissions of CO 2 and ozone precursors. We find the effects of climate and CO 2 to be generally positive, and the effects of ozone to be very detrimental. Unless ozone is strongly controlled, damage could offset CO 2 and climate benefits. We find that resource allocation among sectors in the economy, and trade among countries, can strongly affect the estimate of economic effect in a country

  9. Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat-And How to Counter It

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, Galen A.

    2008-10-01

    The Earth's climate is changing due to human activities. Recent polls suggest that the U.S. public generally recognizes this fact, and the efforts that led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore to win the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize have played no small role in bringing most of the public to realize what scientists have been discussing for years. Yet aside from distorted Hollywood movie accounts such as The Day After Tomorrow, the public knows little about the potential for abrupt change in the climate system. With support from climate science philanthropist Gary Comer, climate scientist Wally Broecker has teamed with science writer Robert Kunzig in this book to bring abrupt climate change into public view. They do this elegantly and convincingly, making the first 12 chapters quite enjoyable.

  10. Water deficit effects on maize yields modeled under current and greenhouse climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muchow, R.C.; Sinclair, T.R.

    1991-01-01

    The availability of water imposes one of the major limits on rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) productivity. This analysis was undertaken in an attempt to quantify the effects of limited water on maize growth and yield by extending a simple, mechanistic model in which temperature regulates crop development and intercepted solar radiation is used to calculate crop biomass accumulation. A soil water budget was incorporated into the model by accounting for inputs from rainfall and irrigation, and water use by soil evaporation and crop transpiration. The response functions of leaf area development and crop gas exchange to the soil water budget were developed from experimental studies. The model was used to interpret a range of field experiments using observed daily values of temperature, solar radiation, and rainfall or irrigation, where water deficits of varying durations developed at different stages of growth. The relative simplicity of the model and its robustness in simulating maize yields under a range of water-availability conditions allows the model to be readily used for studies of crop performance under alternate conditions. One such study, presented here, was a yield assessment for rainfed maize under possible greenhouse climates where temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration were increased. An increase in temperature combined with decreased rainfall lowered grain yield, although the increase in crop water use efficiency associated with elevated CO 2 concentration ameliorated the response to the greenhouse climate. Grain yields for the greenhouse climates as compared to current conditions increased, or decreased only slightly, except when the greenhouse climate was assumed to result in severly decreased rainfall

  11. Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Chan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takakura, Jun’ya; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki

    2018-04-01

    Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 °C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and a 1.5 °C scenario driven from the 2.0 °C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to ‑2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 °C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 °C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (‑0.02% to ‑0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 °C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 °C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity.

  12. Structural change and climate protection. How does climate policy change economics and working environment; Strukturwandel und Klimaschutz. Wie Klimapolitik Wirtschaft und Arbeitswelt veraendert

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blazejczak, Juergen [DIW Berlin (Germany). Abteilung Energie, Verkehr, Umwelt; Edler, Dietmar [Deutsches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin (Germany). Abteilung Innovation, Industrie und Dienstleistungen

    2011-07-01

    In order to curb the climatic change, the greenhouse gases in industrialized countries have to be reduced dramatically by the middle of this century. This strengthens the economic structural change. The contribution under consideration discusses the knowledge of the climate policy-induced structural transformation of economy and labor market in Germany. The actual state of information is limited. It is possible to identify sectors that either are burdened particularly by costs of avoidance or benefit from additional demand. Due to a variety of complex interdependencies employment effects only are tapped with great uncertainty. The additionally induced inter-sectoral structural change in employment lags behind the intra-sectoral adjustment demands. The requirements in qualification will increase more. Completely new skills are required. Necessarily additional qualifications often can be acquired by training. The correlations of forced climatic change policy with other aspects of job quality have not been studied systematically.

  13. Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sordo-Ward

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We identified and analysed droughts in the La Plata Basin (divided into seven sub-basins for the current period (1961–2005 and estimated their expected evolution under future climate projections for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. Future climate projections were analysed from results of the Eta Regional Climate Model (grid resolution of approximately 10 km forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES over the La Plata basin, and considering a RCP4.5 emission scenario. Within each sub-basin, we particularly focused our drought analyses on croplands and grasslands, due to their economic relevance. The three-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3 was used for drought identification and characterization. Droughts were evaluated in terms of time (percentage of time from the total length of each climate scenario, space (percentage of total area, and severity (SPEI3 values of cells characterized by cropland and grassland for each sub-basin and climate scenario. Drought-severity–area–frequency curves were developed to quantitatively relate the frequency distribution of drought occurrence to drought severity and area. For the period 2011–2040, droughts dominate the northern sub-basins, whereas alternating wet and short dry periods dominate the southern sub-basins. Wet climate spread from south to north within the La Plata Basin as more distant future scenarios were analysed, due to both a greater number of wet periods and fewer droughts. The area of each sub-basin affected by drought in all climate scenarios was highly varied temporally and spatially. The likelihood of the occurrence of droughts differed significantly between the studied cover types in the Lower Paraguay sub-basin, being higher for cropland than for grassland. Mainly in the Upper Paraguay and in the Upper Paraná basins the climate projections for all scenarios showed an increase of moderate and severe droughts over large regions

  14. Systematic review of current efforts to quantify the impacts of climate change on undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phalkey, Revati K; Aranda-Jan, Clara; Marx, Sabrina; Höfle, Bernhard; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2015-08-18

    Malnutrition is a challenge to the health and productivity of populations and is viewed as one of the five largest adverse health impacts of climate change. Nonetheless, systematic evidence quantifying these impacts is currently limited. Our aim was to assess the scientific evidence base for the impact of climate change on childhood undernutrition (particularly stunting) in subsistence farmers in low- and middle-income countries. A systematic review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed and gray full-text documents in English with no limits for year of publication or study design. Fifteen manuscripts were reviewed. Few studies use primary data to investigate the proportion of stunting that can be attributed to climate/weather variability. Although scattered and limited, current evidence suggests a significant but variable link between weather variables, e.g., rainfall, extreme weather events (floods/droughts), seasonality, and temperature, and childhood stunting at the household level (12 of 15 studies, 80%). In addition, we note that agricultural, socioeconomic, and demographic factors at the household and individual levels also play substantial roles in mediating the nutritional impacts. Comparable interdisciplinary studies based on primary data at a household level are urgently required to guide effective adaptation, particularly for rural subsistence farmers. Systemization of data collection at the global level is indispensable and urgent. We need to assimilate data from long-term, high-quality agricultural, environmental, socioeconomic, health, and demographic surveillance systems and develop robust statistical methods to establish and validate causal links, quantify impacts, and make reliable predictions that can guide evidence-based health interventions in the future.

  15. EDUCATION IN EMERGENCY: A CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AGENDUM TOWARDS THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROPAGATION OF BANGLADESH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad SHOEB-UR-RAHMAN

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Both the scientific and negotiating community has recognized Bangladesh as one of the most vulnerable countries to Climate Change effect which in future is likely to face more frequent climatic adversities. This paper emphasizes on putting the theme of ‘Education in Emergency’ in all climate change adaptation efforts in the country which can enable it to safeguard country’s important education sector during any disaster or in the recovery phase. Education has received inconsiderable amount of importance in those efforts and ultimately encompassed all the spheres of social, emotional, cognitive and physical ground which decelerate multifarious predicaments and adversities. In preparing this paper the authors highly rely on secondary sources of data. In the era of globalization, a vast number of populations remain untouched or being detracted from the light of education. It is particularly fact for country like Bangladesh where natural calamity is an incessant event due to the intrusion of globalization. Bilateral, multilateral, regional and global affiliation and association can be undertaken to the depletion of hindrances. Besides, substantial and congruous strategies, plans, policies and programs within the internal infrastructure may assist to mitigate this endanger and also comply with the commitment of education for all even in the cataclysm. For accomplishing responsiveness and flourishing prowess, an integrating approach to the management of Education in Emergency (EiE requires coordination and collaboration among government departments or ministries and agencies, designing and upgrading courses (including issues like Need for Sustainable Development and Actions for Environment Protection, Environmental Management Tools & Environmental Assessment, Environment Pollution Management, Progress in Environmental Science, International Environment Laws etc., as well as superior and immaculate information technology to resolve this

  16. Operation of hydropower generation systems in the Alps under future climate and socio-economic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    describes the behavior of hydropower operators. This integrated model allows to quantitatively explore possible trajectories of future evolution of the hydropower systems under the combined effect of climate and socio-economic drivers. In a multi-objective perspective, the model can test how different hydropower operation strategies perform in terms of power production, reliability and flexibility of supply, profitability of operation, and ecosystem conservation. This contribution presents the methodological framework designed to formulate the integrated model, its expected outcomes, and some preliminary results on a pilot study.

  17. Assessing efficiency and economic viability of rainwater harvesting systems for meeting non-potable water demands in four climatic zones of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, S.; Jing, X.

    2017-12-01

    Rainwater harvesting is now increasingly used to manage urban flood and alleviate water scarcity crisis. In this study, a computational tool based on water balance equation is developed to assess stormwater capture and water saving efficiency and economic viability of rainwater harvesting systems (RHS) in eight cities across four climatic zones of China. It requires daily rainfall, contributing area, runoff losses, first flush volume, storage capacity, daily water demand and economic parameters as inputs. Three non-potable water demand scenarios (i.e., toilet flushing, lawn irrigation, and combination of them) are considered. The water demand for lawn irrigation is estimated using the Cropwat 8.0 and Climwat 2.0. Results indicate that higher water saving efficiency and water supply time reliability can be achieved for RHS with larger storage capacities, for lower water demand scenarios and located in more humid regions, while higher stormwater capture efficiency is associated with larger storage capacity, higher water demand scenarios and less rainfall. For instance, a 40 m3 RHS in Shanghai (humid climate) for lawn irrigation can capture 17% of stormwater, while its water saving efficiency and time reliability can reach 96 % and 98%, respectively. The water saving efficiency and time reliability of a 20 m3 RHS in Xining (semi-arid climate) for toilet flushing are 19% and 16%, respectively, but it can capture 63% of stormwater. With the current values of economic parameters, economic viability of RHS can be achieved in humid and semi-humid regions for reasonably designed RHS; however, it is not financially viable to install RHS in arid regions as the benefit-cost ratio is much smaller than 1.0.

  18. Economic impact of integrated policies to respond to threats of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the Argonne Multisector Industry Growth Assessment Model (AMIGA), which is a tool for policy impact analysis in the context of the economy as a whole and its individual sectors. AMIGA is currently being used by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to help understand and evaluate these DOE programs, including more efficient motor vehicle programs. The steps being taken under the US Climate Change Action Plan are being assessed using AMIGA. However, because AMIGA represents prices of goods and services and the wages of workers, AMIGA has the capability to represent incentive approaches to greenhouse gas emissions reductions such as a carbon tax. The ''best'' policy option in a ''second-best'' world may be a mix, or bundle of incentives, voluntary programs, and command-and-control regulations. Detailed reports on model documentation and simulation studies will be available from the author

  19. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Carter, T.R.

    2014-01-01

    A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs.

  20. Public perception of climate change in a period of economic crisis in Puerto Rico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Santos-Corrada

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an analysis is performed to measure Puerto Rican citizens’ perceptions of environmental issues and global climate change (GCC. Puerto Rico (PR is presently facing an economic crisis that began in 2010. In addition, the island has faced many extreme weather events that have greatly impacted the economy, including a dry period that lasted from the beginning of 2014 until the end of 2015 [1]. By replicating a study done in Greece (GR, [2] found that the citizens of PR are more informed about GCC (43% than Greeks (34%. However, only 29% of Puerto Ricans said they knew about the effects of greenhouse gases, as compared to 44% of Greeks. The citizens of PR (67% and GR (91% claim they do not have confidence that their respective governments and agencies will be able to face GCC. In both cases, they have a higher confidence level in environmental organizations than in the scientific community. In PR, 89% of the citizens are concerned about the degradation of natural resources. At 64%, this concern is also significant in the case of GR, although the figure has decreased from previous years. Both countries place more responsibility in the hands of those in government and industry to take action on GCC. That being said, the people of GR have made it known they are willing to perform individual actions as well.

  1. Sources of conflicts in climate policy within the EU. An economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaheim, H. Asbjoern; Bretteville, Camilla

    1999-09-01

    This report is a part of a study of the potential for the EU to take on leadership in the climate negotiations. The aim is to sort out factors that may explain the different economic interests in cutting CO{sub 2}-emissions within the EU. It is based on the idea that interests occur as a result of different perception of the cost of emission cuts among stakeholders. Sector-based comparisons of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom indicate that the conflicts resulting from an announcement of emission cuts are likely to be moderate in Germany, the Netherlands and UK, while the possibilities for conflicts in France, Italy and Spain are significantly higher. The explanation can to a large extent be found by the possibilities for reducing emissions in the electricity sector. The differences facing the different countries when it comes to emission cuts might explain why the EU has not succeeded in implementing common measures across the member countries. To prepare for a common policy, a co-ordination of the electricity market should be given priority. Meanwhile, the differentiation of targets agreed upon after Kyoto clearly contributes to mitigate conflicts. However, new conflicts may occur as a result. The present analysis points out that Italy has got very strict targets compared with the other countries, while the targets for the Netherlands and Spain are moderate. 21 refs., 15 figs., 8 tabs.

  2. The impact of regional economic reliance on the tobacco industry on current smoking in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tingzhong; Barnett, Ross; Rockett, Ian R H; Yang, Xiaozhao Y; Wu, Dan; Zheng, Weijun; Li, Lu

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to conduct a preliminary assessment of province of residence and other contextual factors on the likelihood of being a current smoker in China. A cross-sectional, multistage sampling process was used to recruit participants, and their smoking status and sociodemographic characteristics were obtained through face-to-face interviews. The contextual variables were retrieved from a national database. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the impact of provincial economic reliance on the tobacco industry, as well as individual-level characteristics, on the likelihood of being a current smoker. Participants totaled 20,601 from 27 cities located in 26 of the 31 municipalities/provinces in China. Overall smoking prevalence was 31.3% (95% CI: 19.3-33.2%), with rates being highest in Yinchuan City in Ningxia Province (49.8%) and lowest in Shanghai (21.6%). The multilevel analysis showed an excess likelihood of being a current smoker for individuals living in provinces with the highest rate of cigarette production relative to those with the smallest (pmarketing of tobacco products in China. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastassi Stefanova

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate projections agree on a dryer and warmer future for the Mediterranean. Consequently, the region is likely to face serious problems regarding water availability and quality in the future. We investigated potential climate change impacts, alone (for three scenario periods and in combination with four socio-economic scenarios (for the near future on water resources in a Mediterranean catchment, whose economy relies on irrigated agriculture and tourism. For that, the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM was applied to the drainage area of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon, using a set of 15 climate scenarios and different land use maps and management settings. We assessed the long-term average seasonal and annual changes in generated runoff, groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration in the catchment, as well as on water inflow and nutrients input to the lagoon. The projected average annual changes in precipitation are small for the first scenario period, and so are the simulated impacts on all investigated components, on average. The negative trend of potential climate change impacts on water resources (i.e., decrease in all analyzed components becomes pronounced in the second and third scenario periods. The applied socio-economic scenarios intensify, reduce or even reverse the climate-induced impacts, depending on the assumed land use and management changes.

  4. Hedging Financial Risks in the Economic Practices of Small Business: Current Imperatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolomiyets Ganna M.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the need to update approaches to hedging the financial risks of small businesses. Reducing the probability of financial costs and losses is of continuing relevance. It appears to be especially critical for small businesses. Small business plays a significant role in the country’s economic system as creator of jobs and as a producer of goods and services that adapts quickly to changing consumer requirements. However, its access to credit resources has certain limitations. The instability of the economic environment by individual factors can affect small businesses not less, and sometimes even more than large and medium-sized businesses. Design of the risk-management in terms of small business needs to be updated. In the current context, there is a need in re-evaluating that the efficient financial risk management can only be carried out in a complex of all the enterprise’s risks, with an increase in the planning horizon and the identification of obstacles to achieving the objective set.

  5. Employment and employment conditions in the current economic crisis in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Vukšić

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this research is to analyze developments in employment and employment characteristics during the current crisis in Croatia. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1 The primary (aggregate mode of adjustment to the crisis was a decline in employment. There are, however, considerable differences in adjustment patterns across economic activities. (2 During the crisis, jobs were lost in the, more dynamic, private sector, while the number of jobs in the public sector (entities in state ownership slightly increased. (3 Economic activities with comparatively larger shares of women in employment have experienced fewer employment cuts and the aggregate employment share of women rose during the crisis, especially in activities with a larger share of public sector workers.(4 There has been a declining share of younger workers during the crisis, justifying policy actions to facilitate their employment. (5 Employees with comparatively lower educational attainment face severe challenges in the labor market, which is a longer term trend, not specific to the crisis period. There are indications that this group of employees enjoys a higher level of protection in the public sector. (6 Analysis also shows a rising significance of more flexible forms of employment: increasing shares of fixed term employees (during the last two observed years, and of part time workers. (7 Working hours do not exhibit any strong trends specific to the crisis, except for the diminishing number of overtime hours per worker.

  6. An Integrated Modeling System for Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, Socio-Economic Development and Irrigation Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    SU, Q.; Karthikeyan, R.; Lin, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Water resources across the world have been increasingly stressed in the past few decades due to the population and economic growth and climate change. Consequently, the competing use of water among agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors is expected to be increasing. In this study, the water stresses under various climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management scenarios are predicted over the period of 2015-2050 using an integrated model, in which the changes in water supply and demand induced by climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management are dynamically parameterized. Simulations on the case of Texas, Southwest U.S. were performed using the newly developed integrated model, showing that the water stress is projected to be elevated in 2050 over most areas of Texas, particularly at Northern and Southern Plain and metropolitan areas. Climate change represents the most pronounce factor affecting the water supply and irrigation water demand in Texas. The water supply over East Texas is largely reduced in future because of the less precipitation and higher temperature under the climate change scenario, resulting in an elevated irrigation water demand and thus a higher water stress in this region. In contrast, the severity of water shortage in West Texas would be alleviated in future because of climate change. The water shortage index over metropolitan areas would increase by 50-90% under 1.0% migration scenario, suggesting that the population growth in future could also greatly stress the water supply, especially megacities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The projected increase in manufacturing water demand shows little effects on the water stress. Increasing irrigation rate exacerbates the water stress over irrigated agricultural areas of Texas.

  7. Etude Climat no. 38 'The economic tools of Chinese climate and energy policy at the time of the at the time of the 12. five-year plan'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Di; Delbosc, Anais

    2013-01-01

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: The largest developing country and the main source of GHG emissions in the world, China has undertaken in its 12. five-year plan (2011-2015) to strengthen the strategy initiated in the 11. five-year plan. It proposes making the Chinese economy more flexible - hence its change of name to five-year 'guide'-, particularly through increased use of market instruments. This change applies across all fields, including energy and climate policies. Economic instruments are especially expected to help achieve the 2020 strategic energy and climate objectives which China committed to at the Copenhagen Conference in 2009. The five-year plan forms a programmatic document requiring translation into law to develop details of the measures required to achieve the objectives set out. Following the publication of the 12. five-year plan, the Chinese central government therefore introduced a series of regulations to promote energy conservation and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including at a regional and sectoral level. Local governments are particularly expected to participate, by incorporating progress in achieving their climate and energy policy objectives into the system of administrative appraisal. In relation to energy policy, the economic tools put in place exist side by side with pre-existing administrative tools and remain subject to very strong administrative control. They concern the adjustment of both the production pattern - reinforcement of exchanges of production rights and renewable energy production quotas - and the structure of energy consumption - market for energy savings certificates coordinated at a regional level. In terms of climate policy, the Chinese government is testing a range of instruments, including market and taxation mechanisms. The 12. five-year plan notably includes the development of a

  8. Forest economics and policy in a changing environment: how market, policy, and climate transformations affect forests -- Proceedings of the 2016 Meeting of the International Society of Forest Resource Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory E. Frey; Prakash Nepal

    2016-01-01

    Economics can affect decisions about forest resource management and utilization, and in turn, the ecosystem benefits received. In a time of market, policy, and climate transformations, economic analyses are critical to help policy-makers and resource managers make appropriate decisions. At the 2016 Meeting of the International Society of Forest Resource Economics (...

  9. Chlamydia sequelae cost estimates used in current economic evaluations: does one-size-fit-all?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Koh Jun; Soldan, Kate; Jit, Mark; Dunbar, J Kevin; Woodhall, Sarah C

    2017-02-01

    Current evidence suggests that chlamydia screening programmes can be cost-effective, conditional on assumptions within mathematical models. We explored differences in cost estimates used in published economic evaluations of chlamydia screening from seven countries (four papers each from UK and the Netherlands, two each from Sweden and Australia, and one each from Ireland, Canada and Denmark). From these studies, we extracted management cost estimates for seven major chlamydia sequelae. In order to compare the influence of different sequelae considered in each paper and their corresponding management costs on the total cost per case of untreated chlamydia, we applied reported unit sequelae management costs considered in each paper to a set of untreated infection to sequela progression probabilities. All costs were adjusted to 2013/2014 Great British Pound (GBP) values. Sequelae management costs ranged from £171 to £3635 (pelvic inflammatory disease); £953 to £3615 (ectopic pregnancy); £546 to £6752 (tubal factor infertility); £159 to £3341 (chronic pelvic pain); £22 to £1008 (epididymitis); £11 to £1459 (neonatal conjunctivitis) and £433 to £3992 (neonatal pneumonia). Total cost of sequelae per case of untreated chlamydia ranged from £37 to £412. There was substantial variation in cost per case of chlamydia sequelae used in published chlamydia screening economic evaluations, which likely arose from different assumptions about disease management pathways and the country perspectives taken. In light of this, when interpreting these studies, the reader should be satisfied that the cost estimates used sufficiently reflect the perspective taken and current disease management for their respective context. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  10. Environmental & economic life cycle assessment of current & future sewage sludge to energy technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, N; Pearce, P; Farrow, J; Thorpe, R B; Kirkby, N F

    2014-01-01

    The UK Water Industry currently generates approximately 800GWh pa of electrical energy from sewage sludge. Traditionally energy recovery from sewage sludge features Anaerobic Digestion (AD) with biogas utilisation in combined heat and power (CHP) systems. However, the industry is evolving and a number of developments that extract more energy from sludge are either being implemented or are nearing full scale demonstration. This study compared five technology configurations: 1 - conventional AD with CHP, 2 - Thermal Hydrolysis Process (THP) AD with CHP, 3 - THP AD with bio-methane grid injection, 4 - THP AD with CHP followed by drying of digested sludge for solid fuel production, 5 - THP AD followed by drying, pyrolysis of the digested sludge and use of the both the biogas and the pyrolysis gas in a CHP. The economic and environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) found that both the post AD drying options performed well but the option used to create a solid fuel to displace coal (configuration 4) was the most sustainable solution economically and environmentally, closely followed by the pyrolysis configuration (5). Application of THP improves the financial and environmental performance compared with conventional AD. Producing bio-methane for grid injection (configuration 3) is attractive financially but has the worst environmental impact of all the scenarios, suggesting that the current UK financial incentive policy for bio-methane is not driving best environmental practice. It is clear that new and improving processes and technologies are enabling significant opportunities for further energy recovery from sludge; LCA provides tools for determining the best overall options for particular situations and allows innovation resources and investment to be focused accordingly. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Modeling future flows of the Volta River system: Impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Appeaning Addo, Kwasi; Amisigo, Barnabas; Macadam, Ian; Janes, Tamara; Crossman, Jill; Nicholls, Robert J; McCartney, Matthew; Rodda, Harvey J E

    2018-05-14

    As the scientific consensus concerning global climate change has increased in recent decades, research on potential impacts of climate change on water resources has been given high importance. However in Sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have fully evaluated the potential implications of climate change to their water resource systems. The Volta River is one of the major rivers in Africa covering six riparian countries (mainly Ghana and Burkina Faso). It is a principal water source for approximately 24 million people in the region. The catchment is primarily agricultural providing food supplies to rural areas, demonstrating the classic water, food, energy nexus. In this study an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) was applied to the whole Volta River system to simulate flow in the rivers and at the outlet of the artificial Lake Volta. High-resolution climate scenarios downscaled from three different Global Climate Models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES and CanESM2), have been used to drive the INCA model and to assess changes in flow by 2050s and 2090s under the high climate forcing scenario RCP8.5. Results show that peak flows during the monsoon months could increase into the future. The duration of high flow could become longer compared to the recent condition. In addition, we considered three different socio-economic scenarios. As an example, under the combined impact from climate change from downscaling CNRM-CM5 and medium+ (high economic growth) socio-economic changes, the extreme high flows (Q5) of the Black Volta River are projected to increase 11% and 36% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Lake Volta outflow would increase +1% and +5% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively, under the same scenario. The effects of changing socio-economic conditions on flow are minor compared to the climate change impact. These results will provide valuable information assisting future water resource development and adaptive strategies in the Volta Basin. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  12. Homogenization of vegetation structure across residential neighborhoods: effects of climate, urban morphology, and socio-economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is a key driver regulating vegetation structure across rural ecosystems. In urban ecosystems, multiple interactions between humans and the environment can have homogenizing influences, confounding the relationship between vegetation structure and climate. In fact, vegetat...

  13. The biological consequences of climate changes: An ecological and economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batie, S.S.; Shugart, H.H.

    1991-01-01

    The following subject areas are covered: (1) the level of climate change; (2) impacts of climate change on ecological systems (short-term (decadal), medium term (centenary), and long-term (millennial) effects); and (3) ecological consequences of climate change - evaluating the social costs (the problem of valuing consequences, intergenerational problem, and safe minimum standard strategies and policies)

  14. Classical Ecological Restoration and its Current Challenges: Assisted Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar A. Gómez-Ruiz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration is a very active area in ecology and of great importance for ecosystems management. Despite of being a relatively young discipline, the classical concepts of restoration seem, at present, impractical considering the great challenges generated by modification and destruction of ecosystems. This is due to anthropic activities (deforestation, change of land use, pollution and global climate change. In the classic definition of restoration, the objective is to recover the degraded ecosystem to the same conditions of a historical reference state. However, nowadays the ecosystems return to a state prior to the disturbances seems unviable, because the thresholds of resilience have already been overcome. Additionally, climate change is causing environmental changes at an unprecedented rate. For this reason, ecological restoration needs to unite efforts of diverse actors to recover ecosystems that can be sustainable and functional in the future, where the species could be able to tolerate the environmental conditions that will exist in the long term. Assisted migration has been proposed as a conservation strategy; it is defined as the translocation of species to new locations outside their known range of distribution. In the current context of loss of diversity and ecosystems, this strategy could be fundamental for the formation of new communities that can later become novel ecosystems where species that are fundamental to the dynamics of ecosystems can persist and, at the same time, recover function, structure and resilience.

  15. RESPONSE OF NIGERIAN CASSAVA EXPANSION INITIATIVES TO CLIMATE CHANGES, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SOME POLICY INSTRUMENT (1970-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onwumere Joseph

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study considered the limiting response of Nigeria cassava expansion initiative to climate changes, economic growth and some policy instruments. The presidential initiative to make cassava a foreign exchange earner as well as ensuring that national demand are satisfied has made cassava a significant economic crop and resource input of industrial and international status. Currently, its derivatives such as animal feed, starch, ethanol, cassava chip, cassava flour, cassava liquor etc are in high demand. Having gained international recognition some factors need be examined to ascertain the limiting response of this economic crop some exogenous factors. The specific objectives of interest were to ascertain the response of cassava output expansion to rainfall, temperature, imports, exports, credit allocation to agribusiness, exchange rate, nominal interest rate, inflation and GDP from 1970 – 2012. Also, it examined the short and long run effects of these variables to cassava output so as to know how much adjustment it makes to reach the equilibrium. Secondary data were used for this research work. The technique of data analysis was auto- regressive modeling regression. To capture the long run and short run dynamics of cassava output behavior, the error correction model (ECM using the Engle-Granger methodology was adopted. The result revealed a very high rate of adjustment to long run equilibrium and the variables are correlated which means that impact of each variable on cassava output behavior in the economy is inseparable. The Error correction coefficient of -0.975 measures the speed of adjustment towards long run equilibrium earned the expected negative sign and is statistically significant at 1% risk level. Thus, this study recommends that the emerging cassava economy of Nigeria would be adequately empowered for efficient productivity if the Government stipulate policies that will encourage domestic output expansion to meet the national and

  16. Emerging economic viability of grid defection in a northern climate using solar hybrid systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kantamneni, Abhilash; Winkler, Richelle; Gauchia, Lucia; Pearce, Joshua M.

    2016-01-01

    High demand for photovoltaic (PV), battery, and small-scale combined heat and power (CHP) technologies are driving a virtuous cycle of technological improvements and cost reductions in off-grid electric systems that increasingly compete with the grid market. Using a case study in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, this paper quantifies the economic viability of off-grid PV+battery+CHP adoption and evaluates potential implications for grid-based utility models. The analysis shows that already some households could save money by switching to a solar hybrid off-grid system in comparison to the effective electric rates they are currently paying. Across the region by 2020, 92% of seasonal households and ~75% of year-round households are projected to meet electricity demands with lower costs. Furthermore, ~65% of all Upper Peninsula single-family owner-occupied households will both meet grid parity and be able to afford the systems by 2020. The results imply that economic circumstances could spur a positive feedback loop whereby grid electricity prices continue to rise and increasing numbers of customers choose alternatives (sometimes referred to as a “utility death spiral”), particularly in areas with relatively high electric utility rates. Utility companies and policy makers must take the potential for grid defection seriously when evaluating energy supply strategies. - Highlights: •Quantifies the economic viability of off-grid hybrid photovoltaic (PV) systems. •PV is backed up with batteries and combined heat and power (CHP). •Case study in Michigan by household size (energy demand) and income. •By 2020, majority of single-family owner-occupied households can defect. •To prevent mass-scale grid defection policies needed for grid-tied PV systems.

  17. Social-economical decision making in current and remitted major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulcu, E; Thomas, E J; Trotter, P D; McFarquhar, M; Juhasz, G; Sahakian, B J; Deakin, J F W; Anderson, I M; Zahn, R; Elliott, R

    2015-04-01

    Prosocial emotions related to self-blame are important in guiding human altruistic decisions. These emotions are elevated in major depressive disorder (MDD), such that MDD has been associated with guilt-driven pathological hyper-altruism. However, the impact of such emotional impairments in MDD on different types of social decision-making is unknown. In order to address this issue, we investigated different kinds of altruistic behaviour (interpersonal cooperation and fund allocation, altruistic punishment and charitable donation) in 33 healthy subjects, 35 patients in full remission (unmedicated) and 24 currently depressed patients (11 on medication) using behavioural-economical paradigms. We show a significant main effect of clinical status on altruistic decisions (p = 0.04) and a significant interaction between clinical status and type of altruistic decisions (p = 0.03). More specifically, symptomatic patients defected significantly more in the Prisoner's Dilemma game (p guilt elicited by receiving unfair financial offers in the Ultimatum Game (p guilt-driven pathological hyper-altruism hypothesis in depression. There were also differences in both current and remitted patients in the relationship between altruistic behaviour and pathological self-blaming, suggesting an important role for these emotions in moral and social decision-making abnormalities in depression.

  18. Subtask 3.3 - Feasibility of Direct Coal Liquefaction in the Modern Economic Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benjamin Oster; Joshua Strege; Marc Kurz; Anthony Snyder; Melanie Jensen

    2009-06-15

    Coal liquefaction provides an alternative to petroleum for the production of liquid hydrocarbon-based fuels. There are two main processes to liquefy coal: direct coal liquefaction (DCL) and indirect coal liquefaction (ICL). Because ICL has been demonstrated to a greater extent than DCL, ICL may be viewed as the lower-risk option when it comes to building a coal liquefaction facility. However, a closer look, based on conversion efficiencies and economics, is necessary to determine the optimal technology. This report summarizes historical DCL efforts in the United States, describes the technical challenges facing DCL, overviews Shenhua's current DCL project in China, provides a DCL conceptual cost estimate based on a literature review, and compares the carbon dioxide emissions from a DCL facility to those from an ICL facility.

  19. Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). Part I. Sectoral Analysis of Climate Impacts in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galeotti, M.; Goria, A.; Spantidaki, E.; Mombrini, P.

    2004-02-01

    This paper focuses on the results of the research work carried out by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) within the WISE project. This project aims at investigating the effects and the impacts of extreme weather events, particularly very warm summers, mild winters and storms, on the socio-economic systems of European countries. The output consists of a series of empirical studies, both of quantitative and qualitative descriptive nature. The work of FEEM in the WISE project covers the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate extremes on the socio-economic system in Italy and the analysis of individuals' perception of climate extremes based on results from individuals' surveys. In this paper is presented the statistical modelling of the impact of weather, through quantitative analysis of activity time series. In particular, the core sectors analysed include fires, health, energy use, tourism and agriculture

  20. Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard

    2017-12-11

    The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

  1. Climate and competitiveness: An economic impact assessment of EU leadership in emission control policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexeeva-Talebi, V.; Boehringer, C.; Moslener, U. [Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim (Germany)

    2007-07-01

    The European Council has recently claimed to consider ambitious emission reduction targets (15 to 30 percent by 2020 as compared to 1990 levels) to limit global climate change. In light of the coexistent EU priorities under the Lisbon process, the authors analyze alternative unilateral EU emission control policies against their effects on EU (sectoral and economy-wide) competitiveness using a multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model framework. For a given emission reduction target, the simulations show that alternative implementation rules (uniform versus sectorally differentiated carbon taxes) induce ambiguous impacts on sectoral competitiveness: For a uniform tax, relatively carbon-intensive EU industries face competitiveness losses, while carbon-extensive sectors improve their ability to compete internationally. Losses and gains are reinforced by the stringency of unilateral emission reduction targets. Thus, the implementation of an (economically efficient) uniform carbon tax induces structural change which inevitably goes at the expense of carbon-intensive industries. Vice versa, the authors find that more pronounced tax differentiation in favor of carbon-intensive industries can largely neutralize the negative impacts of emission constraints on their competitiveness, but goes at the expense of overall efficiency. In this case, adjustment costs of emission abatement will to a large extent be born by energy-extensive sectors in terms of a deteriorated ability to compete. As a middle course, moderate tax differentiation allows to sectorally balance competitiveness effects of emission control policies and at the same time limit overall efficiency losses. The authors find also that the level of tax differentiation to balance sectoral competitiveness effects and to limit overall efficiency losses is independent of the emission reduction target. Furthermore, the results indicate that the magnitude of sectoral competitiveness effects is

  2. Climate, weather, socio-economic and electricity usage data for the residential and commercial sectors in FL, U.S

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayanti Mukherjee

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the data that is used in the article entitled “Climate sensitivity of end-use electricity consumption in the built environment: An application to the state of Florida, United States” (Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi, 2017 [1]. The data described in this paper pertains to the state of Florida (during the period of January 1990 to November 2015. It can be classified into four categories of (i state-level electricity consumption data; (ii climate data; (iii weather data; and (iv socio-economic data. While, electricity consumption data and climate data are obtained at monthly scale directly from the source, the weather data was initially obtained at daily-level, and then aggregated to monthly level for the purpose of analysis. The time scale of socio-economic data varies from monthly-level to yearly-level. This dataset can be used to analyze the influence of climate and weather on the electricity demand as described in Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi (2017 [1].

  3. Influence of soil and climate heterogeneity on the performance of economic instruments for reducing nitrate leaching from agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña-Haro, Salvador; García-Prats, Alberto; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2014-11-15

    Economic instruments can be used to control groundwater nitrate pollution due to the intensive use of fertilizers in agriculture. In order to test their efficiency on the reduction of nitrate leaching, we propose an approach based on the combined use of production and pollution functions to derive the impacts on the expected farmer response of these instruments. Some of the most important factors influencing nitrate leaching and crop yield are the type of soil and the climatic conditions. Crop yield and nitrate leaching responses to different soil and climatic conditions were classified by means of a cluster analysis, and crops located in different areas but with similar response were grouped for the analysis. We use a spatial economic optimization model to evaluate the potential of taxes on nitrogen fertilizers, water prices, and taxes on nitrate emissions to reduce nitrate pollution, as well as their economic impact in terms of social welfare and farmers' net benefits. The method was applied to the Mancha Oriental System (MOS) in Spain, a large area with different soil types and climatic conditions. We divided the study area into zones of homogeneous crop production and nitrate leaching properties. Results show spatially different responses of crop growth and nitrate leaching, proving how the cost-effectiveness of pollution control instruments is contingent upon the spatial heterogeneities of the problem. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. The Effects of Inter-annual Climate Variability on the Departures of Leatherback Marine Turtles from the California Current Ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Van Zerr, Vanessa E

    2013-01-01

    The Pacific Ocean is a highly variable environment, and changes in oceanographic conditions impact the distributions of many organisms. Inter-annual climate variability, especially the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, is known to have wide-ranging impacts on organisms in the California Current. Understanding the factors that drive changes in the spatial ecology of organisms, such as inter-annual climate variability, is essential in many cases for effective conservation. Leatherback marine turtle...

  5. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We

  6. Agroforestry versus farm mosaic systems - Comparing land-use efficiency, economic returns and risks under climate change effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Carola; Weber, Michael; Knoke, Thomas

    2017-06-01

    Increasing land-use conflicts call for the development of land-use systems that reconcile agricultural production with the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. Agroforestry has been suggested as a global solution to increase land-use efficiency, while reducing environmental impacts and economic risks for farmers. Past research has often focused on comparing tree-crop combinations with agricultural monocultures, but agroforestry has seldom been systematically compared to other forms of land-use diversification, including a farm mosaic. This form of diversification mixes separate parcels of different land uses within the farm. The objective of this study was to develop a modelling approach to compare the performance of the agroforestry and farm mosaic diversification strategies, accounting for tree-crop interaction effects and economic and climate uncertainty. For this purpose, Modern Portfolio Theory and risk simulation were coupled with the process-based biophysical simulation model WaNuLCAS 4.0. For an example application, we used data from a field trial in Panama. The results show that the simulated agroforestry systems (Taungya, alley cropping and border planting) could outperform a farm mosaic approach in terms of cumulative production and return. Considering market and climate uncertainty, agroforestry showed an up to 21% higher economic return at the same risk level (i.e. standard deviation of economic returns). Farm compositions with large shares of land allocated to maize cultivation were also more severely affected by an increasing drought frequency in terms of both risks and returns. Our study demonstrates that agroforestry can be an economically efficient diversification strategy, but only if the design allows for economies of scope, beneficial interactions between trees and crops and higher income diversification compared to a farm mosaic. The modelling approach can make an important contribution to support

  7. The Law of Entropy – the Most Economical of All Natural Laws. Current Manifestations of World Economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niţă DOBROTĂ

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The last three centuries have witnessed a specific social evolution, one much more dynamical than those of the previous era. The general vector of this dynamics is represented by the progress in technology and science that had taken place in all arrays of social action, a phenomenon largely manifested throughout Western European countries and North America. It is against this general setup that the world saw the formation and development of both European national communities and of the capitalist market economies, two of the historical causes that lead to the fall of the feudal social and economical system.

  8. Assessing climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios for arable farming in the Netherlands: An application of benchmarking and bio-economic farm modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanellopoulos, A.; Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2014-01-01

    Future farming systems are challenged to adapt to the changing socio-economic and bio-physical environment in order to remain competitive and to meet the increasing requirements for food and fibres. The scientific challenge is to evaluate the consequences of predefined scenarios, identify current

  9. Agricultural and Social Resiliency of Small-Scale Agriculture to Economic and Climatic Shocks: A Comparison of Subsistence versus Market-Based Agricultural Approaches in Rural Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, J. J.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.; Pineda, P.; Gálvez, J.; Adamowski, J. F.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural production is heavily dependent not only on climate but also on markets as well as on the social and community systems managing the agroecosystem. In addition, the ultimate goal of agricultural production, human food security, is also affected not only by net agricultural production but also by similar economic and social factors. These complex feedbacks assume a particular importance in the case of smallholder farms in the tropics, where alternative rural development policies have led to different and contrasting agricultural management systems. Current approaches at comparing such systems generally study their environmental, economic or social components in isolation, potentially missing important interconnections. This research uses a participatory systems dynamics modelling (SDM) framework to compare two small-scale agricultural approaches in rural Guatemala which differ in their social, economic and ecosystem management decisions. The first case study community, in Quiché, has adopted a subsistence-based system that aims to use low levels of outside inputs to produce food for their own consumption, while the second, in Sololá, has opted for market-based agriculture that uses high input levels to obtain marketable crops in order to assure income for the purchase of food and other necessities. Each of these systems has its respective vulnerabilities; while the Sololá community suffers from more environmental degradation issues (soils and pests), the Quiché community, given lower monetary incomes, is more vulnerable to events whose responses require a significant monetary expenditure. Through the SDM approach, we incorporate local stakeholder knowledge of the respective systems, including biophysical and socioeconomic variables, into a joint biophysical and socioeconomic model for each community. These models then allow for the comparison of the resilience of both types of socio-agroecosystems in the face of climatic, economic and biological

  10. An Economic Assessment of Local Farm Multi-Purpose Surface Water Retention Systems under Future Climate Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela Berry

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Regions dependent on agricultural production are concerned about the uncertainty associated with climate change. Extreme drought and flooding events are predicted to occur with greater frequency, requiring mitigation strategies to reduce their negative impacts. Multi-purpose local farm water retention systems can reduce water stress during drought periods by supporting irrigation. The retention systems’ capture of excess spring runoff and extreme rainfall events also reduces flood potential downstream. Retention systems may also be used for biomass production and nutrient retention. A sub-watershed scale retention system was analysed using a dynamic simulation model to predict the economic advantages in the future. Irrigated crops using water from the downstream reservoir at Pelly’s Lake, Manitoba, Canada, experienced a net decrease in gross margin in the future due to the associated irrigation and reservoir infrastructure costs. However, the multi-purpose benefits of the retention system at Pelly’s Lake of avoided flood damages, nutrient retention, carbon sequestration, and biomass production provide an economic benefit of $25,507.00/hectare of retention system/year. Multi-purpose retention systems under future climate uncertainty provide economic and environmental gains when used to avoid flood damages, for nutrient retention and carbon sequestration, and biomass production. The revenue gained from these functions can support farmers willing to invest in irrigation while providing economic and environmental benefits to the region.

  11. Are adverse effects incorporated in economic models? An initial review of current practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, D; McDaid, C; Fonseca, T; Stock, C; Duffy, S; Woolacott, N

    2009-12-01

    To identify methodological research on the incorporation of adverse effects in economic models and to review current practice. Major electronic databases (Cochrane Methodology Register, Health Economic Evaluations Database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, EconLit, EMBASE, Health Management Information Consortium, IDEAS, MEDLINE and Science Citation Index) were searched from inception to September 2007. Health technology assessment (HTA) reports commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) HTA programme and published between 2004 and 2007 were also reviewed. The reviews of methodological research on the inclusion of adverse effects in decision models and of current practice were carried out according to standard methods. Data were summarised in a narrative synthesis. Of the 719 potentially relevant references in the methodological research review, five met the inclusion criteria; however, they contained little information of direct relevance to the incorporation of adverse effects in models. Of the 194 HTA monographs published from 2004 to 2007, 80 were reviewed, covering a range of research and therapeutic areas. In total, 85% of the reports included adverse effects in the clinical effectiveness review and 54% of the decision models included adverse effects in the model; 49% included adverse effects in the clinical review and model. The link between adverse effects in the clinical review and model was generally weak; only 3/80 (manipulation. Of the models including adverse effects, 67% used a clinical adverse effects parameter, 79% used a cost of adverse effects parameter, 86% used one of these and 60% used both. Most models (83%) used utilities, but only two (2.5%) used solely utilities to incorporate adverse effects and were explicit that the utility captured relevant adverse effects; 53% of those models that included utilities derived them from patients on treatment and could therefore be interpreted as capturing adverse effects. In total

  12. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. TUBERCULOSIS EPIDEMIC SITUATION IN THE CHECHEN REPUBLIC IN CURRENT SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Mikhailovna Alekseeva

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Tuberculosis is one of the most important medical and social problems in the whole world as well as in Russia and its separate regions. Purpose. The study was aimed at assessment of tuberculosis epidemic situation in the Chechen Republic in the current socio-economic conditions after counterterrorist operations. Materials and methods. The authors analyzed the annual reports of the Ministry of Health of the Chechen Republic for 2010–2015, data of Rosstat, statistical data form for tuberculosis (№ 8 and № 30. Results. The results shown a threefold increase in the main tuberculosis indicators (incidence, prevalence and mortality after counterterrorist operations (1994–1996, and a decrease in these indicators in 2010–2015. The authors have found the cities and rural municipal districts with the most and the least favorable tuberculosis situation. The study results demonstrated an increase in the number of patients with bacillary, with fibrous-cavernous form, as well as patients with tuberculosis in combination with HIV infection. The authors proved the relation between the prevalence of fibrous-cavernous form of tuberculosis and mortality rate. Tuberculosis incidence in children (0–14 years and adolescents (15–17 years decreased in 2010–2015 while the incidence in adolescents remains higher than the incidence in children. Conclusion. Effective antituberculosis work in the Chechen Republic needs to improve the quality of medical examinations, early detection of tuberculosis, timely immunization, and health education.

  14. Nowhere to run, or hide. Current economic downturn may exacerbate hospitals' weakness with buildings, technology costs, reimbursements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Cinda

    2008-04-21

    As the economy moves through what many believe is a recession, healthcare won't be immune, experts say. "I don't know much in the economy that is recession-proof, and I don't think healthcare is either," says W. David Bradford, left, a Medical University of South Carolina economics professor. Because of the current economic conditions, some systems are rethinking where they put their money.

  15. Booklet for sub-national stakeholders heading towards the COP 21. Agricultural and forestry focus. Key concepts on the impacts of climate change, climate policies and economic tools: insight from French territories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depoues, Vivian; Leseur, Alexia; Bordier, Cecile; Foucherot, Claudine; Lacan, Lea; Planton, Serge; Blanchard, Michele; Lemonsu, Aude; Martin, Eric; Masson, Valery; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Ouzeau, Gaelle; Dandin, Philippe; Pigeon, Gregoire; Duvernoy, Jerome; Mondon, Sylvain; Bodiguel, Aude; Gouthiere, Laurence; Martin-Phipps, Cecile; Archambault, Sabrina; Joubert, Marion; Madariaga, Nicole; Coste, Marie-Alexandra; Viguie, Vincent; Avner, Paolo; Cassen, Christophe; Guivarch, Celine; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Carrega, Marie; Menager, Yann

    2015-11-01

    This report, released in the year of the Paris Climate 2015 summit (COP21), reviews concepts vital for understanding and acting to address climate change at a regional level. Based on the experience of French territories it presents 37 fact-sheets aimed at local players, providing concise and informative access to the most up-to-date knowledge. It also offers feedback on the impacts of climate change, climate policies at a global, European and French level, and economic tools supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation

  16. The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2013-01-01

    The national version of FUND3. 6 is used to backcast the impacts of climate change to the 20th century and extrapolate to the 21st century. Carbon dioxide fertilization of crops and reduced energy demand for heating are the main positive impacts. Climate change had a negative effect on water

  17. State responsibility and compensation for climate change damages - a legal and economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J.; Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA; Verheyen, R.

    2004-01-01

    Customary international law has that countries may do each other no harm. A country violates this rule if an activity under its control does damage to another country, and if this is done on purpose or due to carelessness. Impacts of climate change fall under this rule, which is reinforced by many declarations and treaties,including the UNFCCC. Compensation for the harm done depends on many parameters, such as emission scenarios, climate change, climate change impacts and its accounting. The compensation paid by the OECD may run up to 4% of its GDP, far exceeding the costs of climate change to the OECD directly. However, the most crucial issues are, first, from when countries can be held responsible and, second, which emissions are acceptable and which careless. This may even be interpreted such that the countries of the OECD are entitled to compensation, rather than be obliged to pay. State responsibility could substantially change international climate policy. (author)

  18. Economism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Simons

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism, but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism. The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.

  19. Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

  20. Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Rodda, Harvey; Macadam, Ian; Sarkar, Sananda

    2018-05-12

    Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. Copyright © 2018

  1. Integrating science, economics and law into policy: The case of carbon sequestration in climate change policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Kenneth

    Carbon sequestration, the extraction and storage of carbon from the atmosphere by biomass, could potentially provide a cost-effective means to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. The claims on behalf of carbon sequestration may be inadvertently overstated, however. Several key observations emerge from this study. First, although carbon sequestration studies all report results in terms of dollars per ton, the definition of that term varies significantly, meaning that the results of various analyses can not be meaningfully compared. Second, when carbon sequestration is included in an energy-economy model of climate change policy, it appears that carbon sequestration could play a major, if not dominant role in a national carbon emission abatement program, reducing costs of emissions stabilization by as much as 80 percent, saving tens of billions of dollars per year. However, the results are very dependant upon landowners' perceived risk. Studies may also have overstated the potential for carbon sequestration because they have not considered the implementation process. This study demonstrates that three factors will reduce the cost-effectiveness of carbon sequestration. First, the implementation costs associated with measurement and governance of the government-private sector relation are higher than in the case of carbon source control. Second, legal constraints limit the range of instruments that the government can use to induce private landowners to expand their carbon sinks. The government will likely have to pay private parties to expand their sinks, or undertake direct government production. In either case, additional revenues will be required, introducing social costs associated with excess burden. Third, because of the very long time involved in developing carbon sinks (up to several decades) the government may not be able to make credible commitments against exactions of one type or another that would effectively reduce the value of private sector investments

  2. Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian

    by shifts of their distributional ranges, which affects the spatial patterns of species richness and turnover. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 - 4°C until the end of the century; hence climate change will most likely leave further imprints on species and ecosystems. This PhD thesis aims......-thirds of the areas harboring the richest amphibian faunas may be heavily impacted by at least one of the major threats by 2080. The stability of the climatic niche influences the need for a species to track climate change via dispersal, or its potential to adapt to novel climatic conditions. I therefore explore...... the phylogenetic signal in climatic niches of the world's amphibians, which serves as a surrogate quantification of niche stability. Results indicate an overall tendency of phylogenetic signal to be present in realised climatic niches, but signal strength varies across biogeographical regions and among amphibian...

  3. Assessment of the Economic and Environmental Impact of Double Glazed Façade Ventilation Systems in Mediterranean Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pere Alavedra

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Free convection is the most often used method in order to reduce solar load gains on a building with double glazed façades (DGFs. However, depending on the climate factors, the thermal performance of a DGF may not be satisfactory and extra energy costs are required to obtain suitable comfort conditions inside the building. Forced ventilation systems are a feasible alternative to improve the thermal performance of a DGF in Mediterranean climates where large solar gains are a permanent condition throughout the year. In this paper the feasibility of using diverse forced ventilation methods in DGF is evaluated. In addition, an economical comparison between different mechanical ventilation systems was performed in order to demonstrate the viability of DGF forced ventilation. Moreover, an environmental study was carried out to prove the positive energetic balance on cooling loads between free and forced convection in DGF for Mediterranean climates. For this investigation, a CFD model was used to simulate the thermal conditions in a DGF for the different ventilation systems. Results obtained for heat flux, temperature and reductions in solar load gains were analyzed and applied for the economic and environmental research.

  4. Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). Part 2. Individual Perception of Climate Extremes in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galeotti, M.; Goria, A.; Spantidaki, E.; Mombrini, P.

    2004-02-01

    This paper focuses on the results of the research work carried out by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) within the WISE project. This project aims at investigating the effects and the impacts of extreme weather events, particularly very warm summers, mild winters and storms, on the socio-economic systems of European countries. The output consists of a series of empirical studies, both of quantitative and qualitative descriptive nature. The work of FEEM in the WISE project covers the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate extremes on the socio-economic system in Italy and the analysis of individuals' perception of climate extremes based on results from individuals' surveys. In this paper is considered the study of the perception of weather impacts through questionnaire survey to the general public. With regard to the individuals' perception survey, a sample of 300 individuals were interviewed by telephone: 150 extracted from the North of Italy and 150 from the South of Italy. Individuals were asked general questions about their perception of climate extremes, and about the impacts of weather extremes on their daily habits at work, at home, in their leisure activities, on their transport patterns, on their health and tourism choices

  5. Modelling the sequential geographical exploitation and potential collapse of marine fisheries through economic globalization, climate change and management alternatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorka Merino

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Global marine fisheries production has reached a maximum and may even be declining. Underlying this trend is a well-understood sequence of development, overexploitation, depletion and in some instances collapse of individual fish stocks, a pattern that can sequentially link geographically distant populations. Ineffective governance, economic considerations and climate impacts are often responsible for this sequence, although the relative contribution of each factor is contentious. In this paper we use a global bioeconomic model to explore the synergistic effects of climate variability, economic pressures and management measures in causing or avoiding this sequence. The model shows how a combination of climate-induced variability in the underlying fish population production, particular patterns of demand for fish products and inadequate management is capable of driving the world’s fisheries into development, overexploitation, collapse and recovery phases consistent with observations. Furthermore, it demonstrates how a sequential pattern of overexploitation can emerge as an endogenous property of the interaction between regional environmental fluctuations and a globalized trade system. This situation is avoidable through adaptive management measures that ensure the sustainability of regional production systems in the face of increasing global environmental change and markets. It is concluded that global management measures are needed to ensure that global food supply from marine products is optimized while protecting long-term ecosystem services across the world’s oceans.

  6. The economic value of drought information for water management under climate change: a case study in the Ebro basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Quiroga

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Drought events in the Mediterranean are likely to increase in frequency, duration and intensity due to climate change, thereby affecting crop production. Information about drought is valuable for river basin authorities and the farmers affected by their decisions. The economic value of this information and the resulting decisions are of interest to these two stakeholder groups and to the information providers. Understanding the dynamics of extreme events, including droughts, in future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean is being improved continuously. This paper analyses the economic value of information on drought events taking into account the risk aversion of water managers. We consider the effects of drought management plans on rice production in the Ebro river basin. This enables us to compute the willingness to compensate the river basin authority for more accurate information allowing for better decision-making. If runoff is reduced, river basin planners can consider the reduction of water allocation for irrigation in order to eliminate the risk of water scarcity. Alternately, river basin planners may decide to maintain water allocation and accept a reduction of water supply reliability, leaving farmers exposed to drought events. These two alternatives offer different risk levels for crop production and farmers' incomes which determine the value of this information to the river basin authority. The information is relevant for the revision of River Basin Management Plans of the Water Framework Directive (WFD within the context of climate change.

  7. Threats to the National Economic Security of Ukraine at the Current Stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuharskaya Natalia A.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available It is substantiated that the most important factor of the national economic security of the country is to match both the economic and the industrial relations systems to the economic development of the country. The article provides detailed consideration of the particularities of occurrence of threats to the national economic security of Ukraine by allocating seven major structural blocks, in which threats were not overcome during the years of independence, and some of them even became intensified: 1 institutional sphere; 2 social sphere; 3 financial sphere; 4 shadowing and corruptness of economy; 5 a high level of physical wear and tear of fixed assets and of the production infrastructure; 6 de-industrialization of economy; 7 innovative development. The main components of the national economic security, which would assist in overcoming these threats, have been developed.

  8. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Equihua, Miguel; Laborde, Javier; Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

  9. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species. PMID:27732622

  10. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israel Estrada-Contreras

    Full Text Available Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13. The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14. Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

  11. Impacts of climate change on vegetation, hydrological and socio-economic droughts in a transitional wet-to-dry Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Pulquério, Mário; Grosso, Nuno; Duarte Santos, Filipe; João Cruz, Maria

    2015-04-01

    The Tagus river basin is located in a transitional region between humid and semi-arid climate. The lower part of the basin is a strategic source of water for Portugal, providing water for agricultural irrigation, hydropower generation, and domestic water supplies for over 4 million people. Climate change in this region is expected to lead to higher temperatures and lower rainfall, therefore increasing climatic aridity. In this transitional region, this could lead to an increased frequency of severe droughts, threatening climatic support for current agricultural and forestry practices, as well as the sustainability of domestic water supplies. This work evaluated the impacts of climate change on drought frequency and severity for the Portuguese part of the Tagus river basin. Climate change scenarios for 2010-2100 (A2 greenhouse emission scenarios) were statistically downscaled for the study area. They were evaluated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model, which simulated vegetation water demand and drought stress, soil water availability, irrigation abstraction, streamflow, reservoir storage and groundwater recharge. Water inflows from Spain were estimated using an empirical climate-based model. Drought occurrence and severity was analyzed in terms of: * meteorological drought, based on (i) the Standardized Precipitation Index and (ii) the Aridity Index; * vegetation/agricultural drought, based on plant water stress; * hydrological drought, based on (i) streamflow rates and (ii) reservoir storage; * socio-economic drought, based on (i) the capacity of the main reservoir in the system (Castelo de Bode) to sustain hydropower and domestic supplies, and (ii) the rate of groundwater extraction vs. irrigation demands for the cultures located in the intensive cultivation regions of the Lezírias near the Tagus estuary. The results indicate a trend of increasing frequency and severity of most drought types during the XXIst century, with a

  12. Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

    1988-04-01

    The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

  13. Cutting the climate-development Gordian Knot - economic options in a politically constrained world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hourcade, J.Ch.; Shukla, P.R.; Mathy, S.

    2005-09-01

    The actual main objective of international negotiations on climate change aims at elaborating a coordination regime integrating developing countries. The international coordination system built at the Kyoto Conference relies on a coordination system based on quantity based objectives. This architecture is more the result of successive compromises rather than the result from the deployment of an ex-ante fully-fledged vision of any actor, and its elaboration has been fully disconnected from development issues. In addition to the impossibility to get an agreement on rules for quota allocation among all the parties, this system shows irreconcilable contradictions between climate and development issues. This article aims, starting fi-om examples of synergies between climate and development, at enunciating bases of an amended Kyoto Protocol which could bridge the gap between climate and development. (authors)

  14. Current Global Pricing For Human Papillomavirus Vaccines Brings The Greatest Economic Benefits To Rich Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlihy, Niamh; Hutubessy, Raymond; Jit, Mark

    2016-02-01

    Vaccinating females against human papillomavirus (HPV) prior to the debut of sexual activity is an effective way to prevent cervical cancer, yet vaccine uptake in low- and middle-income countries has been hindered by high vaccine prices. We created an economic model to estimate the distribution of the economic surplus-the sum of all health and economic benefits of a vaccine, minus the costs of development, production, and distribution-among different country income groups and manufacturers for a cohort of twelve-year-old females in 2012. We found that manufacturers may have received economic returns worth five times their original investment in HPV vaccine development. High-income countries gained the greatest economic surplus of any income category, realizing over five times more economic value per vaccinated female than low-income countries did. Subsidizing vaccine prices in low- and middle-income countries could both reduce financial barriers to vaccine adoption and still allow high-income countries to retain their economic surpluses and manufacturers to retain their profits. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  15. An Approach to Understanding Complex Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses to Climate Disruption in the Chesapeake Bay Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, R. K.; Nix, M.; Ihde, A. G.; Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Simpkins, S.; Fountain, G. H.; APl GAIA Team

    2011-12-01

    In this paper we describe the application of a proven methodology for modeling the complex social and economic interactions of a system under stress to the regional issues that are tied to global climate disruption. Under the auspices of the GAIA project (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu), we have investigated simulating the complex interplay between climate, politics, society, industry, and the environment in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and associated geographic areas of Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. This Chesapeake Bay simulation draws on interrelated geophysical and climate models to support decision-making analysis about the Bay. In addition to physical models, however, human activity is also incorporated via input and output calculations. For example, policy implications are modeled in relation to business activities surrounding fishing, farming, industry and manufacturing, land development, and tourism. This approach fosters collaboration among subject matter experts to advance a more complete understanding of the regional impacts of climate change. Simulated interactive competition, in which teams of experts are assigned conflicting objectives in a controlled environment, allow for subject exploration which avoids trivial solutions that neglect the possible responses of affected parties. Results include improved planning, the anticipation of areas of conflict or high risk, and the increased likelihood of developing mutually acceptable solutions.

  16. Climate Change Vulnerability of Agro-Ecosystems: Does socio-economic factors matters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.; Post, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    Climate variability and change has direct impacts on agriculture. Despite continual adaptation to climate as well as gains in technology innovation and adoption, agriculture is still vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation expected in coming decades. Generally, researchers use two major methodologies to understand the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to climate change: process-based crop models and empirical models. However, these models are not yet designed to capture the influence of socioeconomic systems on agro-ecosystem processes and outcomes.. However, socioeconomic processes are an important factor driving agro-ecological responses to biophysical processes (climate, topography and soil), because of the role of human agency in mediating the response of agro-ecosystems to climate. We have developed a framework that integrates socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of agro-ecosystems using cluster analysis and GIS tools. This framework has been applied to the U.S. Southeast to define unique socio-ecological domains for agriculture. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic characteristics are an important factor influencing agriculture production. These results suggest that the lack of attention to socioeconomic conditions and human agency in agro-ecological modeling creates a potential bias with respect to the representation of climate change impacts.

  17. Interactive effects of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems in the United States: current understanding and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Mark Fenn; Steven McNulty; Fengming Yuan; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles Driscoll; Tom Meixner

    2013-01-01

    A review of the current status of air pollution and climate change (CC) in the United States from a perspective of their impacts on forest ecosystems is provided. Ambient ozone (O3) and nitrogen (N) deposition have important and widespread ecological impacts in U.S. forests. Effects of sulphurous (S) air pollutants and other trace pollutants have...

  18. Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attorre, F.; Francesconi, F.; Taleb, N.; Scholte, P.; Saed, A.; Alfo, M.; Bruno, F.

    2007-01-01

    The potential impact of climate change on Dracaena cinnabari, a spectacular relict of the Mio-Pliocene Laurasian subtropical forest in Socotra (Yemen), was analysed. Current distribution, abundance and vertical structure of D. cinnabari populations were assessed with 74 plots in nine remnant areas.

  19. Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan C. Loeb; Eric A. Winters

    2013-01-01

    Temperate zone bats may be more sensitive to climate change than other groups of mammals because many aspects of their ecology are closely linked to temperature. However, few studies have tried to predict the responses of bats to climate change. The Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) is a federally listed endangered species that is found in the eastern...

  20. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  1. Silvicultural approaches to maintain forest health and productivity under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul D. Anderson; Daniel J. Chmura

    2009-01-01

    Climate modeling based on a variety of scenarios for the Pacific Northwest suggests that over the next century temperatures may increase and that the abundance of summer precipitation may decline. Historically, climate changes at the century scale have been accompanied by adjustments in species population sizes and the composition of vegetation communities....

  2. Climate Change Education: Preparing Future and Current Business Leaders--A Workshop Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storksdieck, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses challenges as well as opportunities for businesses and, broadly speaking for the entire economy. Businesses will be challenged to provide services or products with less harmful influence on the climate; respond to a changing policy, regulatory, and market environment; and provide new services and products to help address the…

  3. Process Design Report for Wood Feedstock: Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Desing and Economics Utilizing Co-Current Dilute Acid Prehydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis Current and Futuristic Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wooley, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ruth, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sheehan, John [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ibsen, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Majdeski, Henry [Delta-T Corporation, Lexington, KY (United States); Galves, Adrian [Delta-T Corporation, Lexington, KY (United States)

    1999-07-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has undertaken a complete review and update of the process design and economic model for the biomass-to-ethanol process based on co-current dilute acid prehydrolysis, along with simultaneous saccharification (enzymatic) and co-fermentation. The process design includes the core technologies being researched by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE): prehydrolysis, simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation, and cellulase enzyme production.

  4. Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teurlai, Magali; Menkès, Christophe Eugène; Cavarero, Virgil; Degallier, Nicolas; Descloux, Elodie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Guillaumot, Laurent; Libourel, Thérèse; Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Mathieu-Daudé, Françoise; Mangeas, Morgan

    2015-01-01

    Background/Objectives Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. Methods We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic</